Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/19/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
329 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A WEAKENING TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
INTERIOR NORTHWEST MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL
LOCATIONS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. MOST OF THE
INTERIOR CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED AND CUMULUS IS BEGINNING TO FORM
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EARLIER CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW
DECREASING AS A CAPPING INVERSION SEEMS TO BE WINNING OUT. STILL THE
MOST RECENT HRRR MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT STORMS MAY STILL FORM OVER
THE TRINITY HORN OR YOLLA BOLLY MOUNTAINS...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE TROUGH WILL RUN INTO THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO
STALL OUT AND SPLIT ITS ENERGY AWAY FROM THE REGION. THERE IS THE
SLIM POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY SOME CUMULUS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS EACH
DAY.
BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT ALLOWING
ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW TO BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. INCREASING INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY ALLOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE NOW LOOKS
LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY IS GREATEST...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THUS ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. IF
THE 12Z GFS MODEL IS CORRECT THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH
PULLS NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN
ON ONE OF THOSE TWO DAYS. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE THE UPPER LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RETROGRADE FARTHER OFF THE COAST ON
TUESDAY ALLOWING RIDING TO REDEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AND LITTLE CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS.
TYPICAL SUMMER STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN EACH NIGHT AND MORNING. EXPECTING THE STRATUS TO MIX BACK TO
THE IMMEDIATE COAST RESULTING IN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING EACH DAY.
RPA
&&
.AVIATION....MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO REDUCED
CEILINGS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.MARINE...THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE INCREASING AS A STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC INCREASES
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND SEAS AND WILL BE IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE
TO AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. THE WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT
SATURDAY PZZ475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
835 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The 8 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a 1012 mb low
pressure system centered near Jackson, MS, with a quasi-stationary
front extending southeast from this low across Southeast AL and
South GA. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a long wave
trough (positively tilted) from Ohio to TX, with moist southwest
flow ahead of it over much of the Gulf Coast. The radar network
showed a QLCS approaching the western portions of our forecast
area, although it was moving into a region of progressively drier,
more stable air. The best initialized Convection Allowing Models
(mainly the latest HRRR and CONUS WRF ARW) bring this system into
primarily the western portions of our forecast area tonight,
though they do show a weakening trend. Our latest PoP/QPF reflect
these changes, which is quite a bit faster and farther east (with
the rain) than what we were thinking earlier.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday]...A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms
will be possible in the region during the TAF period. An initial
round of thunderstorms should approach ECP and DHN this evening
from the west around 02-06Z before diminishing. After that, the
timing and location of showers and storms becomes less certain,
but the current expectation is that additional rain and storms
will develop and spread into the area in the early morning hours -
beginning first at ECP (possibly as early as 12Z) and then pushing
north and east from there. Due to timing uncertainties, periods
with chances for showers and storms were indicated in the TAFs
with SHRA and VCTS but kept in the VFR flight category. However,
in heavier rain or storms, LIFR/IFR visibility will be possible
along with some gusty winds. When timing becomes more certain,
lower flight categories may be indicated explicitly at a later
time.
&&
.Prev Discussion [342 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The upper trough over the Mississippi Valley today will slide
eastward over the weekend bringing a return of unsettled weather to
the region. Low to mid level flow will be out of the WSW, a
favorable directly for higher coverage of sea breeze convection.
However, synoptic influences will also be in play with a remnant
front dissecting the CWA and impulses rotating through the mean
trough. Deep layer shear will be above typical summertime levels on
Saturday. However, mid level lapse rates will be poor and low level
instability will be limited by abundant cloud cover. Still, one or
two strong storms cannot be ruled out over our FL Panhandle coastal
zones and the marine area. A bigger concern will be locally heavy
rain. 48-hr QPF could be over 3 inches over our far northwestern
zones with a much larger area over 2 inches. PoPs will be in the
likely category for most of the area and max temps will mainly be
held in the 80s with 90s restricted to the eastern FL Big Bend.
Sunday will see more typical distribution of scattered storms and
seasonal temps.
.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
A wet pattern will be prevailing over our CWA through the long term
as we will be in the weakness between two large longwave ridges, one
over the Atlantic, and one over the Western CONUS. This weakness
will allow the area to be under the influence of deep layer
southerly flow which will give good rain chances for all parts of
the forecast region. Further adding to the weakness will be a cut
off upper low that the GFS and Euro indicate could drop down from
the mean 250mb flow Monday afternoon. As this rotates SW around the
ridge, it will further fortify our rain chances throughout the long
term especially Monday-Wednesday afternoons.
.Marine...
Low pressure west of the area will briefly increase winds and seas
over the waters west of Apalachicola through Saturday. By Sunday and
beyond, a weak pressure pattern more typical for the summer months
will return. This will result in light winds and low seas from
Sunday through Wednesday.
.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days as moisture levels drastically increase along with
rain chances.
.Hydrology...
Rain chances will increase through the weekend. Isolated rainfall
totals in excess of 2 to 4 inches are expected across the western
half of the forecast area with lesser amounts of 1 to 2 inches
through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts should not be widespread
enough to cause any river flooding, though some localized issues
in flood prone areas are possible.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 72 89 72 91 73 / 10 70 30 50 40
Panama City 75 86 75 89 76 / 30 70 40 50 40
Dothan 72 87 72 90 72 / 40 70 40 50 30
Albany 73 87 71 91 72 / 20 70 40 50 40
Valdosta 71 89 70 91 72 / 20 50 40 50 40
Cross City 71 91 72 91 72 / 10 40 30 50 40
Apalachicola 75 86 74 90 75 / 10 70 40 50 40
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
935 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2014
.UPDATE...PATCHY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS AROUND 500 FT MAINLY OVER NE
FL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 10 AM WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
DRY AIR FOR JULY STANDARDS WITH PWAT OF 1.45 INCHES ON THE JAX
SOUNDING...EVEN DRIER AT TLH WITH PWAT 0.97 INCHES. THIS AS A AS A
RESULT OF A WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS AND AN
ASSOCD SFC COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER EXTREME SE GA. BEST MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER OUR S ZONES AS PER BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER PRODUCE
WHERE MEASURED VALUES ARE ABOUT 1.7 INCHES.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AREA AND THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT NEAR THE FL/GA STATE LINE. BEST
RAIN CHANCES OF AROUND 20%...MAINLY AFTER 1 PM...WILL BE ADVERTISED
FOR THE OUR SRN MOST ZONES AND INCLUDING AROUND THE ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDICES SIMILAR DUE TO
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS DUE TO DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR AROUND THE JAX METRO AREA IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES. FEW TO SCT CU
EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE AROUND NOON TO 1 PM WITH CU POSSIBLY BROKEN
FOR BRIEF PERIOD BUT ABOVE 3000 FT. LATEST HRRR AND ARW MODELS SHOW
VERY LIMITED CONVECTION TODAY ALONG THE W AND E COAST SEA BREEZES SO
NO PLANS FOR INCLUDING CONVECTION IN TAFS WITH RAIN CHANCE PROBS
GENERALLY 20% OR LESS. WINDS WILL BE NW TO N TURNING E IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTN FOR COASTAL TAFS...WITH GNV MORE VARIABLE AT ABOUT 6 KT OR
LESS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS ARE NWLY AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN TO NE TO E AS ATLC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE AFTN.
MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO REFRESH WINDS AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN THE
CWF UPDATE. ESE SWELLS NOTED TO BE ABOUT 1.5 FT FROM THE ESE.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WITH SURF OF 1-2 FT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 94 68 93 69 / 10 10 10 10
SSI 88 76 87 75 / 10 0 10 10
JAX 91 70 91 71 / 10 0 10 10
SGJ 88 74 88 74 / 10 10 10 10
GNV 93 68 93 70 / 20 20 10 10
OCF 92 69 93 71 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/MCALLISTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
835 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY)...
12Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF JULY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...HOWEVER WE
ARE BEGINNING TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS UNSEASONABLE TROUGH
SHIFTING EASTWARD AND DEAMPLIFYING. THE MAIN ANCHOR UPPER LOW OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS BEGINNING TO OPEN UP AND PIVOT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN CANADA. OUR FORECAST AREA STILL RESIDES
AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT OUR MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY ZONAL WITH TIME AS THE UNSEASONABLE SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT FOR ASCENT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST 48 HOURS SHIFTS OFF INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP COLUMN MOISTURE IS ALSO BEING SHUNTED OFF
TO THE EAST WITH A MUCH LESS "JUICY" ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. 12Z KTBW
SOUNDING PROFILE DEFINITELY SHOWS THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DRIER AIR OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA COMPARED TO 12-24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE PW VALUE
DROPPING TO AROUND 1.55".
AT THE SURFACE...DEEP SOUTH JULY COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...AND REALLY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH
MORE PROGRESS SOUTH BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SO...UNFORTUNATELY...THOSE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL NOT
QUITE ARRIVE FOR US. SO CLOSE...YET SO FAR AWAY. A WHOLE LIST OF
OBSERVATIONS NEAR OR AT RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES CAN BE FOUND THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...JUST NOT FOR US.
HAVE MADE SOME OPTIMISTIC ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAIN FORECAST FOR THE
TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD TODAY IN ANTICIPATION OF THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND LOSS OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT TO SOMEWHAT
SUPPRESS ANY TYPE OF ACTIVITY LIKE WE SAW ACROSS THOSE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT WE DO NOT EXPECT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD "WASHOUT" OF A DAY
PATTERN SEEN RECENTLY SHOULD NOT BE REPEATED. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL EXIST TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...BUT
STILL SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR FREQUENT AS THE ROUND AFTER
ROUND SEEN WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE MORE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LESS CLOUD COVER...WE WILL
ALSO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT ACTUALLY ACHIEVING A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE
TODAY. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...THEN CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE IN A FURTHER DECREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES INSIDE THE I-75 CORRIDOR AS LATER DAY ACTIVITY FOCUSES
INLAND AND OVER TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (FRIDAY)...
FRIDAY WILL MARK A RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN. THE
MAIN FOCUS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS THE DRIER
POST-FRONTAL AIR EXITS AND MODIFIES.
.MID TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A NEAR A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA. SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND TOWARD LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH SEA AND LAND BREEZES. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
ADEQUATE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE BROADENING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH LIGHT WIND BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
PENINSULA FROM THE ATLANTIC AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
SOUTHEAST REGION. THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION INTO MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG FAR NORTH FLORIDA. DRY AIR
ALOFT HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND EXPECT
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR IFR VISIBILITY TO DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR MAKES IT INTO THE FORT MYERS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANCES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BY
EVENING. VFR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 00Z.
&&
.MARINE...
A FRONT EXITS THE REGION OVER EASTERN FLORIDA AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN FLORIDA DRIFTS NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS THEN BECOMING ISOLATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY AND THEN
DECREASING AS THE HIGH MOVES NORTH. THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARDS WILL
BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT WETTING RAINS MITIGATE MOST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL TAMPA BAY AREA RIVERS ARE FORECASTED TO REACH FLOOD IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERMITTENT BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL. THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA...MANATEE RIVER AT
MYAKKA HEAD...AND CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS ARE UNDER
FLOOD WARNINGS AS THEY RISE AFTER HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PEACE RIVER
AT ARCADIA IS FORECASTED TO REACH ABOVE 9 FEET...PLACING IT INTO
ACTION STAGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. RESIDENTS AND THOSE
IMPACTED BY RIVER FLOODING SHOULD MONITOR RAINFALL...THE LATEST
WARNINGS/FORECASTS/STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...AND AVOID FLOODING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 89 78 92 79 / 50 20 30 10
FMY 91 77 92 78 / 70 30 30 20
GIF 90 75 93 77 / 60 30 40 20
SRQ 87 78 91 77 / 70 20 20 20
BKV 90 70 93 74 / 50 20 30 20
SPG 88 80 91 82 / 60 20 20 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...NOAH
MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...GARCIA MID TERM/
LONG TERM...PAXTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1014 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
238 PM CDT
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL RAMP UP
IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THEREFORE ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER AFTERNOON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE PATTERN IS
GENERALLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...EXCEPT THERE A DISTURBANCE PASSING
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST PROVIDING A GLANCING BLOW OF MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH THERE IS A VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THEREFORE A LAKE BREEZE
HAS MADE HEADWAY INLAND ONCE AGAIN. FEW LITTLE SPECKLES ON THE RADAR
HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY BUT FALL APART
ALMOST AS SOON AS THEY FORM. READINGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH POCKETS OF LOW 80S...AGAIN COOLER NEAR THE LAKEFRONT.
THERE IS SHORTWAVE SKIRTING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EMBEDDED
BENEATH A LARGER SCALE LOW FARTHER NORTH..BUT HEIGHT RISES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS FOCUSED.
OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY BE
ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAKING IT START TO FEEL A
BIT MORE LIKE IT USUALLY DOES IN MID JULY...ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONAL WAVES WILL ATTEMPT GLIDE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT THE UPPER JET REMAINS FOCUSED WELL TO OUR NORTH. BY
MONDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS WELL. AS
THIS HAPPENING THERE ARE SOME RIPPLES IN THE FLOW AROUND THE LARGE
UPPER RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A DECAYING AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...BUT MID
RANGE MODELS KEEP THE LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA. THIS AGAIN LOOKS TO BE THE CASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS A BIT BETTER AND THERE IS A BIT STRONGER
WAVE TO WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND SHOWING HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAN NORMAL AT THIS RANGE ON AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET AHEAD OF DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL ALLOW SOME ENERGY TO ROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO
1.75" OR SLIGHTLY MORE TO OUR WEST WHILE A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH
AXIS IN NW FLOW SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOW
PASSES THROUGH...PARTS OF THE REGION LOOK TO SEE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE THE JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT REMAINS
POISED TO DRIVE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AT TIMES SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERY.
* LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
QUIET WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH
EASTERLY WINDS. WIND COMPONENT MAY ACTUALLY BE MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND LIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW BUT THEN
TURN MORE DUE EASTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED AS LAKE BREEZE
INFLUENCE DEVELOPS.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LAKE BREEZE BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE SATURDAY.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
250 PM...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES AND
MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WEAKER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION AND FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS A LAKE BREEZE FORMS. FURTHER NORTH...THE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TOWARD THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL TURN
LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES...ITS
POSSIBLE WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT EASTERLY AGAIN ON SUNDAY OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE.
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY ON
SATURDAY AS IT WEAKENS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST TO HUDSON BAY BY
MONDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE. NEW LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
A COLD FRONT DOWN THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
855 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 850 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Another quiet night weather-wise as high pressure off to our east
will continue to dominate our weather thru the weekend with a day
to day warming trend. In addition, surface dew points will gradaully
increase as well, especially when the surface flow becomes more
southerly on Sunday. Forecast soundings off the RAP model and the
last several runs of the HRRR model suggest the potential for some
fog to form just before dawn Saturday, especially across the east
and southeast. However, it still doesn`t appear to be widespread
enough at this time to warrant including in the zone forecast this
evening. As a result, our current ZFP is handling the evening
trends well, so an update is not warranted at this time.
Smith
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 610 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Except for the possibility for a period of MVFR vsbys in ground
fog between 09z-13z, VFR conditions are expected for the rest of
the forecast. High pressure continues to dominate the weather over
our area and should be with us right thru Saturday night. Any
diurnal cumulus should gradually dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky expected overnight. Cumulus clouds should form
again late tomorrow morning with cloud bases in the 4500-6000 foot
range. Surface winds will once again be a non-factor this forecast
period with light easterly winds tonight, less than 5 kts, and an
east to southeast flow on Saturday at 5 to 10 kts.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 311 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
SHORT TERM...
A shortwave trough is currently tracking ENE along the Ohio River
Valley away from Illinois with mid and high cloud cover
decreasing. Another day of scattered low level cumulus cloud
cover has developed as a result of a capped shallow convective
layer from around 6000-9000 feet and this will dissipate overnight
with the loss of surface heating. Dewpoints this afternoon are a
bit below forecast minimum temperatures overnight and look too
marginal for mention of fog in public forecasts...although some
shallow localized fog isn`t completely out of the question. For
Saturday...a very similar day is expected except a few degrees of
increase in both temperature and dewpoint are in store as the cool
air mass of the past several days moves off to the northeast.
LONG TERM...
A high pressure ridge will build over the Rockies and Western
Plains through early next week. This will yield a stable
atmospheric profile over central Illinois for dry
conditions...and an increasing trend in temperatures and
dewpoints. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to around 90
degrees while dewpoints reach the lower 70s. By Late Tuesday or
Wednesday...models continue to bring a shortwave over the top of
the ridge to the west. This will likely bring a cold front through
the region for chances of precipitation back to Illinois. A
cooling trend with less humidity will likely accompany this
pattern as well Wednesday through Friday.
Onton
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
716 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 50S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT
EASTERN AREAS WHICH MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS OF 23Z SHOWS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS FEATURE IS MODELED TO STRENGTHEN
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BY LATER TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MID LEVEL DYNAMIC
FORCING/DEFORMATION INTO OUR EAST MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
MOISTENING/ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOR RAIN TO MEASURE LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR IS STARTING TO PICK UP ON TRENDS
WITH LIGHT RAIN ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT KVES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE (700 MB THETA-E GRADIENT). GIVEN THESE TRENDS
BUMPED UP POPS A BIT EAST OF INTERSTATE 69...WITH DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS LIKELY SLOWING NWD PROGRESSION...HENCE THE LOWER
POPS/UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE...ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER TO READ
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE IWX CWA
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA INTO THE ARKLATEX AREA WILL
SLOWLY EJECT TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLY...SPREADING MOISTURE
TOWARDS MAINLY SE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. NOT AN OVERLY STRONG SYSTEM BY ANY MEASURE WITH MAIN
IMPACTS BEING INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MARGINAL CHANCE FOR RAIN LATER
TONIGHT AND SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES ON SATURDAY. IF POPS WEREN`T IN
ALREADY WOULD PROBABLY HOLD OFF DESPITE MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF IN
FAR EAST/SE AREAS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH CONSENSUS FROM MODELS TO KEEP
FROM FLIP FLOPPING SO HAVE LEFT POPS INTACT. DID TRY TO ADD A BIT
MORE DETAIL/TIMING.
AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM A NICE DAY SHOULD
BE IN STORE WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S. LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES IN SE AREAS WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER LIKELY LIMITING
OVERALL HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDINESS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...LOCAL AREA
SHOULD BE CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO AXES OF DEEPER MOISTURE...ONE DEPARTING
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER CONFINED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH GENERALLY WEAK MID/UPPER
FORCING INTO MOST OF TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS PERIOD
DRY. GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF AIR MASS ALONG WITH UPSWING IN LOW
LEVEL WAA AND GOOD DEAL OF INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST. A SERIES OF RIDGE-RIDING SHORT WAVES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND DAMPEN AS THEY
PROGRESS EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER PROSPECTS OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PUSH HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN A STRONGER
EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. SOME LOW
CONFIDENCE STILL PERSISTS IN REGARDS TO TIMING THIS FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE DUE TO INFLUENCES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...AND MODELS LIKELY STRUGGLING WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES. GFS/GEM REMAIN SOMEWHAT FASTER OUTLIERS IN TERMS OF FRONTAL
PROGRESSION INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE OPTED TO SIDE TOWARD A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF/GEFS MEAN IDEA AT THIS TIME WITH SOME
SUSPICION THAT GFS MAY BE LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS A BIT FAST DUE
TO FEEDBACK ISSUES. THIS SOLUTION ALSO MAINTAINS FORECAST
CONTINUITY...WITH INCREASING CHANCE POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT LATE TUE-WED...WHICH ARGUES FOR MID TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PARTS OF THURSDAY AS UPPER WAVE
BECOMES SOMEWHAT DIVORCED FROM PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES.
HAVE CONTINUED FORECAST TREND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY...WITH INDICATIONS THAT ACTIVE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME DAMPENING OF UPPER RIDGING AND EASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS MAY BE WITHIN REACH...PARTICULARLY ON
TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPS IS SOMEWHAT LOWER FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH UNCERTAINTIES INTO TIMING INCREASE OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS. AFTER A FEW DAYS OF TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...A COOLER
AIR MASS SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THU-FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
VFR WITH LIGHT ESE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE TRACKS JUST EAST OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
720 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE REGION...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH RADAR SHOWING
SOME COVERAGE THERE NOW AND HRRR INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR THESE
ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO HANG AROUND OFF AND ON
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THAT AREA AS
WELL. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO COVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH MOISTURE. SO...LEFT
OUT MENTION AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S...WHICH WAS CAPTURED WELL BY ALLBLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP CHANCES WITH
UPPER WAVES.
FIRST...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS
TO THE EAST. AT THAT POINT...THERE IS SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM FOR SUNDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH WETTER THAN
THE NAM AND WANTS TO BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES IN FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER
FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE NAM REMAINS DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD AND MAINTAINS MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DECIDED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA
FOR SUNDAY SINCE THE EURO ALSO SUPPORTS THE WETTER GFS.
TEMPS...GRADUAL WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD FOR
NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO TREND THIS TOWARD THE COOLER NAM IF FUTURE
MODEL RUNS INCREASE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES MIDWEEK.
MODELS AGREE THAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THEN...THE MODELS DIVERGE AS THE 00Z
ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A MIDWEST
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT AS COMPARED TO THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z
CANADIAN. THE LATTER BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE FORMER BRING IT DOWN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH SOLUTION STILL UP IN THE AIR...WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE
WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRY THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
WITH RETURN FLOW AND UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA...TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW DEGREES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT TO THE UPPER 70S AND MID 80S BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE SHOULD GET BETTER REGARDING THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND
TEMPERATURES AS IT GETS CLOSER AND THE MODELS LIKELY CONVERGE ON A
MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR DAYBREAK.
LAMP GUIDANCE IS GETTING MORE AND MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND PERHAPS LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE INTRODUCED
3-5SM AND SCT015 AFTER ABOUT 08-10Z THROUGH 14-15Z. SREF
PROBABILITIES FOCUS THIS POTENTIAL A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.
ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL END BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CUMULUS THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL BE BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1233 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
Overnight radar trends had peak intensity of bands of showers in
northwest Kansas around 07Z, with models showing better isentropic
upglide around 305K theta surfaces occurring around this time as the
upper wave continues southeast from eastern Wyoming. Little evidence
of additional isentropic lift developing today, with modest Q-vector
convergence passing through with the upper wave today. Somewhat
better lift and deeper moisture exists in southern areas and could
be enough for isolated to scattered showers to develop. This
solution is closer to the GFS, ECMWF, and recent RAP runs. NAM and
HRRR continue to attempt to develop more widespread precipitation in
the next several hours, but have little confidence in these ideas
given latest observation trends and NAM`s too wet bias with this
event. Persistent cloud cover should keep southern areas the coolest
with temps only rising some 10-15F from morning values in light
winds. Should see enough clearing behind the wave this afternoon for
middle to upper 70s elsewhere. South winds increase somewhat tonight
and could bring stratus north overnight. Specifics on cloud trends
and near-surface RH values will need to be monitored for possible
fog in mainly northern and western locations toward dawn Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
Friday through the weekend keeps the forecast area in generally
northwest flow. 850 mb temperatures rise from the lower teens to
near 20c by late Sunday afternoon, translating to highs rising from
near 80 Friday to the middle/upper 80s Saturday and approaching 90
by Sunday. Backed off on rain chances for Monday as although timing
of waves through the NW flow aloft is tricky, beginning to see some
agreement that a mid level ridge will move overhead on Monday and
could take out rain chances. Better agreement for a slightly
stronger wave on Tuesday and have kept low end chance pops for this
time frame.
By Tuesday, a 600dm 500mb upper high anchored over the Central
Rockies extends northeast, and may make an approach on its eastern
edge toward Eastern Kansas into Wednesday. This would bring the mid
level thermal ridge over our area and bring highs well into the 90s
for western counties with lower to middle 90s and possibly higher in
the east.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
VFR conditions expected through the TAF. Some small potential for
fog during the early morning, but VFR appears much more likely at
this time.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
625 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
Overnight radar trends had peak intensity of bands of showers in
northwest Kansas around 07Z, with models showing better isentropic
upglide around 305K theta surfaces occurring around this time as the
upper wave continues southeast from eastern Wyoming. Little evidence
of additional isentropic lift developing today, with modest Q-vector
convergence passing through with the upper wave today. Somewhat
better lift and deeper moisture exists in southern areas and could
be enough for isolated to scattered showers to develop. This
solution is closer to the GFS, ECMWF, and recent RAP runs. NAM and
HRRR continue to attempt to develop more widespread precipitation in
the next several hours, but have little confidence in these ideas
given latest observation trends and NAM`s too wet bias with this
event. Persistent cloud cover should keep southern areas the coolest
with temps only rising some 10-15F from morning values in light
winds. Should see enough clearing behind the wave this afternoon for
middle to upper 70s elsewhere. South winds increase somewhat tonight
and could bring stratus north overnight. Specifics on cloud trends
and near-surface RH values will need to be monitored for possible
fog in mainly northern and western locations toward dawn Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
Friday through the weekend keeps the forecast area in generally
northwest flow. 850 mb temperatures rise from the lower teens to
near 20c by late Sunday afternoon, translating to highs rising from
near 80 Friday to the middle/upper 80s Saturday and approaching 90
by Sunday. Backed off on rain chances for Monday as although timing
of waves through the NW flow aloft is tricky, beginning to see some
agreement that a mid level ridge will move overhead on Monday and
could take out rain chances. Better agreement for a slightly
stronger wave on Tuesday and have kept low end chance pops for this
time frame.
By Tuesday, a 600dm 500mb upper high anchored over the Central
Rockies extends northeast, and may make an approach on its eastern
edge toward Eastern Kansas into Wednesday. This would bring the mid
level thermal ridge over our area and bring highs well into the 90s
for western counties with lower to middle 90s and possibly higher in
the east.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
Ongoing showers in central portions of Kansas appear to be a bit
more prevalent than short-range models advertised, but still have
little confidence in anything reaching the terminals, and
struggling nature of the precip as it comes east supports this.
Will need to keep an eye on stratus potential after 06Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 333 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
Appears cloud cover should be enough to keep this morning`s
temperatures above record values. Record lowest maximum today at
Concordia is in jeopardy however. As mentioned above, cloud trends
will be key in how far temps drop tonight, and could again threaten
record minimums.
Record Minimum Temperatures:
July 17th July 18th
Topeka: 57 (1967, 2009) 56 (1911, 2009)
Concordia: 54 (1900) 57 (1899)
Record Lowest Maximum Temperatures:
July 17th
Topeka: 69 (1911)
Concordia: 74 (1911, 1967)
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65
CLIMATE...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
333 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
Overnight radar trends had peak intensity of bands of showers in
northwest Kansas around 07Z, with models showing better isentropic
upglide around 305K theta surfaces occurring around this time as the
upper wave continues southeast from eastern Wyoming. Little evidence
of additional isentropic lift developing today, with modest Q-vector
convergence passing through with the upper wave today. Somewhat
better lift and deeper moisture exists in southern areas and could
be enough for isolated to scattered showers to develop. This
solution is closer to the GFS, ECMWF, and recent RAP runs. NAM and
HRRR continue to attempt to develop more widespread precipitation in
the next several hours, but have little confidence in these ideas
given latest observation trends and NAM`s too wet bias with this
event. Persistent cloud cover should keep southern areas the coolest
with temps only rising some 10-15F from morning values in light
winds. Should see enough clearing behind the wave this afternoon for
middle to upper 70s elsewhere. South winds increase somewhat tonight
and could bring stratus north overnight. Specifics on cloud trends
and near-surface RH values will need to be monitored for possible
fog in mainly northern and western locations toward dawn Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
Friday through the weekend keeps the forecast area in generally
northwest flow. 850 mb temperatures rise from the lower teens to
near 20c by late Sunday afternoon, translating to highs rising from
near 80 Friday to the middle/upper 80s Saturday and approaching 90
by Sunday. Backed off on rain chances for Monday as although timing
of waves through the NW flow aloft is tricky, beginning to see some
agreement that a mid level ridge will move overhead on Monday and
could take out rain chances. Better agreement for a slightly
stronger wave on Tuesday and have kept low end chance pops for this
time frame.
By Tuesday, a 600dm 500mb upper high anchored over the Central
Rockies extends northeast, and may make an approach on its eastern
edge toward Eastern Kansas into Wednesday. This would bring the mid
level thermal ridge over our area and bring highs well into the 90s
for western counties with lower to middle 90s and possibly higher in
the east.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
00Z TOP RAOB showed quite a lot of mid level dry air. And with
profilers showing an easterly 850 wind over eastern KS, am not
sure where moisture for precip will come from. Water vapor shows
the shortwave may be tracking a little further west over CO. With
all this in mind, will continue with a dry forecast. Surface
ridging should keep winds below 10 KTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 333 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
Appears cloud cover should be enough to keep this morning`s
temperatures above record values. Record lowest maximum today at
Concordia is in jeopardy however. As mentioned above, cloud trends
will be key in how far temps drop tonight, and could again threaten
record minimums.
Record Minimum Temperatures:
July 17th July 18th
Topeka: 57 (1967, 2009) 56 (1911, 2009)
Concordia: 54 (1900) 57 (1899)
Record Lowest Maximum Temperatures:
July 17th
Topeka: 69 (1911)
Concordia: 74 (1911, 1967)
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters
CLIMATE...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1040 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THIS
PRIMARILY AFFECTED THE POP AND WX SCHEMES. THE LATEST HRRR AND NEW
00Z NAM12 SUGGEST A COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO
THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS FIRST WAVE SLOWLY DEPARTS AFTER 06Z WITH A
RESURGENCE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAWN. THIS WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
ITS ATTENDANT JET STREAKS AND SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HAVE BEEFED UP
THE RAIN TOTALS FOR THE SOUTHEAST A BIT MORE INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY FOR
THIS. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE TRAINING...EXPECT THE RATES TO REMAIN
AT A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR OR LESS KEEPING THE AMOUNTS
AND RUNOFF ISSUES FROM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL...THOUGH IT WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED SHOULD THE RATES PICK UP WITH THIS CURRENT SURGE OR
THE NEXT. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
22Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH TARGETING EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DREARY DAY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HELPING TO CAP TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE COOL AIR PREVENTED
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...ZEROING OUT THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. THE MOISTURE INFLOW AND FOCUSING
MECHANISM...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT THE RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST PLACES. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM CONCUR WITH THIS
ASSESSMENT AS BOTH TARGET THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE MOST SUSTAINED RAINS AND TIMES OF MODERATE RAINFALL RATES.
EVEN WITHOUT THE SHOWERS THE AIR MASS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE DAMP
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AROUND. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST WITH THIS IN MIND ALONG WITH THE INCORPORATION OF THE
LATEST RADAR/OBS DATA...TRENDS...AND HIGH RES CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
WHICH WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
THIS HAS GENERATED A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE A COMBINATION OF THE OVER RUNNING OF THE
FRONT AND THE DYNAMICS FROM BEING NEAR THE UPPER LOW. HAVE DECIDED TO
TAKE THE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW
LEVEL STABILITY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER THEY WOULD BE RARE. THE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING
MODERATED BY ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND WILL LIKELY SET A MIN HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE DAY. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN FROM NEAR DAWN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DUE TO THE
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS...AND THE RIVERS
STARTING OUT VERY LOW...THE ONLY HYDROLOGY ISSUES SHOULD BE
LOCALIZED HIGH WATER...WITH STREAMS....DITCHES... AND LOW WATER
CROSSING RUNNING FULL OVER THE AREAS OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
A TROUGHING PATTERN WILL SIT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
DAY 5 ON TUESDAY...WHILE STRONG RIDGING SITS OVER THE SW. AS
SUCH...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THOUGH NO
MAJOR SYSTEMS ARE POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...GENERAL SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PULL IN WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL MEAN BOTH THE RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS
THE DAILY THREAT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING
AND DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT ON SOLUTIONS AT
THIS POINT...BUT DO EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO BEGIN IMPACTING KY BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS WELL. KEPT MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
NEARS AND PASSES OVER. POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN FRIDAY.
TEMPS LEADING UP TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...ALONG
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK
DOWN TO AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER...DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL
BE WITH EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. IN THIS DAMP
ENVIRONMENT THERE WILL TIMES OF LOWER VISIBILITY AND CIGS WITH
AVERAGE CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE
PERIODS OF POORER WX USING TEMPOS INITIALLY THEN BRINGING IFR IN AS
PREVAILING LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE NEW DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK
IN CIGS AND VIS WITH THE BETTER AND SUSTAINED IMPROVEMENT...LIKELY
UP TO LOW END VFR...TAKING PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
725 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
22Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH TARGETING EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DREARY DAY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HELPING TO CAP TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE COOL AIR PREVENTED
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...ZEROING OUT THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. THE MOISTURE INFLOW AND FOCUSING
MECHANISM...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT THE RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST PLACES. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM CONCUR WITH THIS
ASSESSMENT AS BOTH TARGET THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE MOST SUSTAINED RAINS AND TIMES OF MODERATE RAINFALL RATES.
EVEN WITHOUT THE SHOWERS THE AIR MASS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE DAMP
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AROUND. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST WITH THIS IN MIND ALONG WITH THE INCORPORATION OF THE
LATEST RADAR/OBS DATA...TRENDS...AND HIGH RES CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
WHICH WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
THIS HAS GENERATED A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE A COMBINATION OF THE OVER RUNNING OF THE
FRONT AND THE DYNAMICS FROM BEING NEAR THE UPPER LOW. HAVE DECIDED TO
TAKE THE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW
LEVEL STABILITY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER THEY WOULD BE RARE. THE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING
MODERATED BY ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND WILL LIKELY SET A MIN HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE DAY. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN FROM NEAR DAWN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DUE TO THE
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS...AND THE RIVERS
STARTING OUT VERY LOW...THE ONLY HYDROLOGY ISSUES SHOULD BE
LOCALIZED HIGH WATER...WITH STREAMS....DITCHES... AND LOW WATER
CROSSING RUNNING FULL OVER THE AREAS OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
A TROUGHING PATTERN WILL SIT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
DAY 5 ON TUESDAY...WHILE STRONG RIDGING SITS OVER THE SW. AS
SUCH...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THOUGH NO
MAJOR SYSTEMS ARE POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...GENERAL SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PULL IN WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL MEAN BOTH THE RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS
THE DAILY THREAT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING
AND DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT ON SOLUTIONS AT
THIS POINT...BUT DO EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO BEGIN IMPACTING KY BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS WELL. KEPT MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
NEARS AND PASSES OVER. POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN FRIDAY.
TEMPS LEADING UP TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...ALONG
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK
DOWN TO AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER...DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL
BE WITH EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. IN THIS DAMP
ENVIRONMENT THERE WILL TIMES OF LOWER VISIBILITY AND CIGS WITH
AVERAGE CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE
PERIODS OF POORER WX USING TEMPOS INITIALLY THEN BRINGING IFR IN AS
PREVAILING LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE NEW DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK
IN CIGS AND VIS WITH THE BETTER AND SUSTAINED IMPROVEMENT...LIKELY
UP TO LOW END VFR...TAKING PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
956 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THEN
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OFF THE JERSEY COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR AN EASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAS LED
TO INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH SHOWERS BREAKING OUT
ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA. GUIDANCE
DIFFERS WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WITH THE GFS
AND HRRR BRINGING SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHILE THE NAM
KEEPS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS. WILL SIDE WITH
THE GFS/HRRR IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SINCE
THEY SEEM TO BE VERIFYING BETTER THIS EVENING WHEN COMPARING IT TO
THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. THIS MEANS THAT LOCATIONS NEAR AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 95 SHOULD BE DRY BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL MARYLAND AS WELL AS THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
WASHINGTON DC. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
ON SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD.
EXPECT A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE DAY DUE A
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS MUCH OF THE TIME
WILL TURN OUT DRY. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK WAVE COULD BRUSH A FEW SHOWERS INTO LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND...OTHERWISE CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE
RELEGATED NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN CREEPING
UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK TO MODERATE PVA EXPECTED ACROSS CWA
DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. MAIN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRYING IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED DURING THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH THICKENING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS KMRB AND KCHO. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY ALONG WITH A BKN/OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
VFR LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE LOCATED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS TIME THESE LOOK TO MAINLY BE OF THE VFR
VARIETY. TSRA CHANCE LOOKS MAINLY RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK GRADIENT EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE COAST. EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS.
NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES MID-WEEK.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/CEM/BPP
MARINE...CEM/BPP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
906 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
UPDATED TO REFINE TIMING OF LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST
ACFROSS NW WI. LATEST HRRR SHOWS LINE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND
BROKEN IN NATURE. THE HRRR DOES SHOW LINE BECOMING MORE DEFINED
AROUND 12Z NEAR DLH AND MOVING ACROSS THE TWIN PORTS 13-14Z AND NW
WI 14Z-18Z. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
UPDATED TO TAKE OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WORDING AND ADJUSTED CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPS A LITTLE. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NE ND
TO SOUTH CENTRAL ND HAS FORMED IN THE LAST HOUR AND MOVING EAST.
THEY WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY BUT MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AS MODELS INDICATE.
REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING A SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO NE MINNESOTA TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
CONCERNING TIMING...BUT NOT IN COVERAGE. I LEANED ON A MODEL BLEND
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. THE HIGHEST CHANCES SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE OVER NW
WISCONSIN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AS WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
A SW FLOW AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE/H85 TROUGH IN THE DAKOTAS...WILL
BRING INCREASING WARMTH AND INSTABILITY TO THE REGION SUNDAY.
HAVE KEPT SMALL BROADBRUSH POPS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
HIGH INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE STRONG MID LEVEL WAA IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE CAP AND LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
THE BORDERLAND/BWCAW REGION.
FOCUS TURNS TO STRETCH OF HOT AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES. LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE SHOWN GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THAT H85 TEMPS IN
EXCESS OF 20 C SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY/MONDAY...LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS DURING THIS TIME WILL WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING BACK
TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY SETTLES INTO THE
NORTHLAND.
THE LATEST ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A VORT
MAX...WITH DEEPENING H85 LOW...ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN THE WRN CONUS/ROCKIES AND TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
DURING THE TUESDAY INTO TIME FRAME. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND TIMING IS LIKELY TO CHANGE...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE BRD AND INL TAF SITES DUE TO
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ND MOVING EAST. WILL KEEP VCTS ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES TOMORROW DUE TO GOOD INSTABLITY AND FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 59 79 60 81 / 30 40 20 20
INL 60 77 62 85 / 50 10 10 30
BRD 63 81 64 85 / 50 40 10 20
HYR 62 80 64 83 / 10 40 50 10
ASX 61 81 62 85 / 0 40 40 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...STEWART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
611 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AS TROF AXIS ROTATES
INTO EASTERN NY, AND DIURNAL HEATING WANES. RUC DEPICTS DECREASING
LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WILL ALLOW THE POPS TO DROP BELOW ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THE NEXT 2
HOURS, AND WILL FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISLD TO SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVED OVER C NY IN ASSCTN
WITH THE TROF AXIS MOVG RIGHT THRU NY/PA. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
ASCENT AT MID-LEVELS WAS LEADING TO SOME INSTABILITY THAT WAS
TRIGGERED BY THE DIURNAL HEATING. THIS ACVTY WILL LAST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AND THEN FADE FAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PV MAX PASSES
E AND THE UPPER TROF FLATTENS.
THE TROF AXIS PASSES E OF THE REGION AND HGHTS RISES..THIS WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS NY AND PA WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES
BY FRI AM. EXPECT THE HIGH TO REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU FRIDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS NY AND
PENNSYLVANIA KEEPING MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY WEST OF OUR
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PA AND FAR WESTERN NY... HOWEVER MODEL
CONSENSUS IS STRONG INDICATING THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY WEST OF CENTRAL NY. HAVE GONE WITH A 20 TO 30 POP FOR
SATURDAY MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-81 TO ACCOUNT FOR A SMALL
CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE FINGER
LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND JUST A LOW CHC POP FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RETURNING TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AND NOTHING MORE THAN LOW
CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEAK SFC-TO-UPPER LEVEL
FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. KEEPING ANY FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WEST OF OUR AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT
WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY BUT WILL
KEEP POPS ONLY IN THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE ECMWF
SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR QUITE WARM CONDITIONS BY MIDWEEK WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISLD TO SCT SHRA ACRS C NY WHICH WAS MAINLY UNDER A VFR
DECK. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED AT THIS POINT. I EXPECT A VFR
BKN CUMULUS LAYER TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND THEN FADE FAST TWD
SUNSET. I EXPECT CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH VLIFR FOG FORMING AT
KELM 8-12Z. REST OF TAF SITES WILL BE VFR.
FOR FRI...VFR WITH JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS
THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTE NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT WINDS BACK
TO UNDER 5 KTS AND WEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS FRI AM.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT TO SAT...MOSTLY VFR. POSSIBLY SOM IFR VALLEY FOG AT ELM.
SUN-MON-TUE...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
148 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF OUR REGION BY FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END TO THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
500MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS AXIS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS POOL OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH
WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE.
NEAR-TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RGEM SUGGEST THE WEAK LAKE
EFFECT WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTH OF TORONTO WEST ACROSS LAKE HURON AND
MICHIGAN DIPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. DESPITE LAKE CLOUDS
STILL EXPECT AREAS OF RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY IN THE DAY MAY PRODUCE
STRATO-CU FIELD AND CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND FROM
A LAKE SHADOW...HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES EAST OF OUR
REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS TOWARD NEW YORK EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STRAY CLOSE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER TO MID 50S
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.
RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 17 ARE AS FOLLOWS:
BUFFALO 52/1985
ROCHESTER 48/1892
WATERTOWN...44/1993
THESE RECORDS ARE PROBABLY SAFE...EXCEPT FOR BUFFALO WHERE IF SKIES
CAN CLEAR EARLY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THEN THE RECORD
LOW MAY BE IN JEOPARDY OF FALLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES SATURDAY WITH SOME DAYTIME CU AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
TIER MAY PREVENT VALLEY FOG FROM FORMING.
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY THEN NORMAL OR SLIGHT ABOVE FRIDAY NIGHT..DEPENDENT UPON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD AS MODELS
CONSENSUS IS STILL WEAK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER THAN THE
ECMWF HOWEVER NOW APPEARS TO BE TRENDING MORE TOWARD AN INVERTED
TROUGH SPREADING MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER ON SATURDAY
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH HANGING TOUGH OVER NEW YORK THOUGH POPS AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURE-WISE HIGH LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL READINGS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY THEN RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO WARM WITH TIME WITH READING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE ARE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE
LAKES...WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 3K FT.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SIT BACK ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ERIE. ALL OF THIS WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN SCT-
BKN CLOUDS WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 3K FT. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR LOWER CIGS IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT JHW...WHERE PERIODS
OF MVFR CIG AND EVEN A STRAY SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE
SOME FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER TOO...BUT WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT
CLOUDS THIS SHOULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE AND THUS WILL NOT CARRY IN
THE TAF.
AFTER THIS...EXPECT DIURNAL CLOUDS TODAY WITH BASES AOA 4K. THERE
MAY BE A FEW -SHRA WHICH WILL HAVE A BE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE TAF SITES. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAS PRODUCED SOME LAKE
EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS WHICH CONTINUES A CHANCE FOR A FEW
WATERSPOUTS ON LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. THE SZILAGYI WATERSPOUT
NOMOGRAM FORECAST SUGGESTS A SMALL CHANCE MAINLY ON LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AT WHICH TIME THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND COLD POOL WILL MAKE WATERSPOUT FORMATION UNLIKELY.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...LEVAN/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
741 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE LEADING EDGE RADAR ECHOES ARE ALOFT BUT EVENTUALLY THE
RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE COUNTIES AROUND
AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 GETTING THE RAIN FIRST. A FEW SPRINKLES
COULD GET INTO MARION MORROW KNOX AND HOLMES COUNTIES BEFORE
SUNSET. TRIED TO FINE TUNE THE HOURLY TIMING OF THE ADVANCE OF THE
RAIN BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION... REGIONAL RADAR IS SHOWING RETURNS
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. MOST OF THIS IS STILL JUST CLOUDS BUT
PRECIP WILL MAKE A QUICKER APPEARANCE THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. HAVE
MADE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS THE NEW GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE
SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE LATEST HRRR HAS
SHOWERS TO KCLE BY 05Z. THIS MAY BE FAST BUT DO EXPECT PRECIP TO
REACH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND NW PA BY
DAYBREAK. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ABOUT THE EAST 2/3 OF THE AREA.
THE NEAREST LIGHTNING IS HUNDREDS OF MILES AWAY CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE LOW SO SEE NO NEED FOR A THUNDER MENTION OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 60S BY 12Z AND LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BUT SKIES WILL BE GRAY
AND OVERCAST BY DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
RAIN TOMORROW. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE GUIDANCE IS
GIVING CATEGORICAL POPS. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE A TENTH OR TWO
OF RAINFALL. THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TOMORROW WHICH IS SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL
MENTION THUNDER FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT ANY THAT
OCCURS WILL BE LOCALIZED. BY MID AFTERNOON OR SO...PRECIP CHANCES
IN THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. BY 00Z SUNDAY...ONLY THE EASTERN
END OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A REALISTIC SHOT FOR MORE PRECIP. THE
SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY AFFECTING THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
WILL HANG ON TO A SMALL CHANCE MENTION IN THE EAST BUT NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK AND WILL TRY FOR DRY WEATHER
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM UP DURING THE PERIOD BUT
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE 850
MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 20C WITH THE SURFACE TEMPS SOARING INTO THE 85
TO 90 DEGREE RANGE. HOT AND HUMID BUT WITH NO TRIGGER AND 700 MB
TEMPS AROUND 10C KEPT DAY DRY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS.
GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT SO HOLDS OFF THE FRONT
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO CHANCE POPS TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON THE TIMING AND HOLD OFF PRECIP UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF STALLS FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...THE GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND MOVES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. FOR NOW USED THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. EXPECTING AREA OF RAIN TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LIMITED AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED AT TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL LOWER DURING THE NIGHT AND SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND OVER THE REST
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED EAST OF THE LAKE WILL SET UP A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...BUT RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE EASTERN LAKES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
708 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE LEADING EDGE RADAR ECHOES ARE ALOFT BUT EVENTUALLY THE
RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE COUNTIES AROUND
AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 GETTING THE RAIN FIRST. A FEW SPRINKLES
COULD GET INTO MARION MORROW KNOX AND HOLMES COUNTIES BEFORE
SUNSET. TRIED TO FINE TUNE THE HOURLY TIMING OF THE ADVANCE OF THE
RAIN BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION... REGIONAL RADAR IS SHOWING RETURNS
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. MOST OF THIS IS STILL JUST CLOUDS BUT
PRECIP WILL MAKE A QUICKER APPEARANCE THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. HAVE
MADE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS THE NEW GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE
SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE LATEST HRRR HAS
SHOWERS TO KCLE BY 05Z. THIS MAY BE FAST BUT DO EXPECT PRECIP TO
REACH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND NW PA BY
DAYBREAK. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ABOUT THE EAST 2/3 OF THE AREA.
THE NEAREST LIGHTNING IS HUNDREDS OF MILES AWAY CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE LOW SO SEE NO NEED FOR A THUNDER MENTION OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 60S BY 12Z AND LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BUT SKIES WILL BE GRAY
AND OVERCAST BY DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
RAIN TOMORROW. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE GUIDANCE IS
GIVING CATEGORICAL POPS. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE A TENTH OR TWO
OF RAINFALL. THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TOMORROW WHICH IS SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL
MENTION THUNDER FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT ANY THAT
OCCURS WILL BE LOCALIZED. BY MID AFTERNOON OR SO...PRECIP CHANCES
IN THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. BY 00Z SUNDAY...ONLY THE EASTERN
END OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A REALISTIC SHOT FOR MORE PRECIP. THE
SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY AFFECTING THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
WILL HANG ON TO A SMALL CHANCE MENTION IN THE EAST BUT NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK AND WILL TRY FOR DRY WEATHER
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM UP DURING THE PERIOD BUT
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE 850
MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 20C WITH THE SURFACE TEMPS SOARING INTO THE 85
TO 90 DEGREE RANGE. HOT AND HUMID BUT WITH NO TRIGGER AND 700 MB
TEMPS AROUND 10C KEPT DAY DRY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS.
GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT SO HOLDS OFF THE FRONT
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO CHANCE POPS TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON THE TIMING AND HOLD OFF PRECIP UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF STALLS FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...THE GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND MOVES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. FOR NOW USED THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED BETWEEN MVFR 06Z-12Z AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW BUT
DO NOT EXPECT TO BE WIDESPREAD SO DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED EAST OF THE LAKE WILL SET UP A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...BUT RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE EASTERN LAKES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1042 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF SRN/CNTRL OKLAHOMA AND
NRN TEXAS. THESE WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AT
KOKC/KOUN...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT AT KLAW/KSPS AS THIS AREA OF
STRATUS IS WHITTLED AWAY FROM THE WEST. EXPECT PATCHY FOG AT ALL
TERMINALS BUT KGAG/KWWR...ESPECIALLY FROM 10Z THROUGH 12Z AS WINDS
BECOME NEARLY CALM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH
BY 16Z SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/
UPDATE...
THE PRIMARY CHANGE IN THE PACKAGE THIS EVENING IS WITH SKY COVER
AND HANGING ON TO THE CLOUDS LONGER. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER
TO ERODE SINCE SUNSET... AND HRRR AND CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THE OVERCAST WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A WHILE. TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED FASTER THAN FORECAST GRIDS INDICATED IN NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED... BUT WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL
KEEP A FLOOR ON THE TEMPERATURE DROP. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY GRIDS
SOMEWHAT... BUT FORECAST MINS STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 85 70 92 / 10 10 0 10
HOBART OK 62 88 71 95 / 0 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 64 87 73 94 / 10 10 0 10
GAGE OK 62 89 69 96 / 0 10 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 61 85 69 90 / 10 0 0 10
DURANT OK 63 86 70 93 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
943 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...
THE PRIMARY CHANGE IN THE PACKAGE THIS EVENING IS WITH SKY COVER
AND HANGING ON TO THE CLOUDS LONGER. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER
TO ERODE SINCE SUNSET... AND HRRR AND CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THE OVERCAST WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A WHILE. TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED FASTER THAN FORECAST GRIDS INDICATED IN NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED... BUT WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL
KEEP A FLOOR ON THE TEMPERATURE DROP. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY GRIDS
SOMEWHAT... BUT FORECAST MINS STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/
DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...
AVIATION...
OVERCAST SKIES WILL LINGER ACROSS SRN/CNTRL OK AND PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE
FROM KOKC/KOUN SWD TO NEAR KSPS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT INTERMITTENT
LOW CIGS WITH A TREND TOWARD VFR BY 04Z TO 06Z. WITH RECENT
RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME FOG POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...AND
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS IN MOST TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT KGAG AND KWWR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/
DISCUSSION...
NEAR SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
MEANWHILE...INSOLATION MAKING SOME PROGRESS IN REMOVING CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING CEILING HEIGHTS. EXPECT CLOUDS WILL ERODE BY
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL AND COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...SOME FOG IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BY AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL
MENTION FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR STORMS IN FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY EVENING.
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY PUSH A WEAK
BOUNDARY CLOSE TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY.
OVERALL NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE...BUT
HEAT INDICES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 100.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 85 70 92 / 10 10 0 10
HOBART OK 62 88 71 95 / 0 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 64 87 73 94 / 10 10 0 10
GAGE OK 62 89 69 96 / 0 10 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 61 85 69 90 / 10 0 0 10
DURANT OK 63 86 70 93 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
250 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
FRIDAY...THEN OFF THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MAY
DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY AM WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU BASE OF
UPPER TROF OVR OHIO. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS
LACKING AS INDICATED BY 00Z PIT SOUNDING AND FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
PA IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY MORNING WITH MCLEAR SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS WARREN/MCKEAN COS...WHERE LAKE MOISTURE WILL MAKE A FEW
-SHRA POSSIBLE. RADAR AT 05Z SHOWS SOME OF THESE SHOWERS OVR ERIE
AND CRAWFORD COS AND LATEST RAP INDICATES PLUME OF HIGHER LAKE
MOISTURE WILL DRIFT INTO OUR NW COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.
TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE M/U40S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS
OF THE ALLEGHENIES. THE COOL TEMPS...IN COMBINATION WITH A CALM
WIND AND WARM RIVER/STREAM WATER...SHOULD PROMOTE LOCALLY DENSE
VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS AM IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
FURTHER EAST...AN UNEVENTFUL EARLY MORNING EXPECTED WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S UNDER MCLEAR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS TO START...FOLLOWED BY CUMULUS FORMATION AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
BY LATE AFTN...UPPER TROF AXIS SHOULD HAVE SWUNG EAST OF THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA...BRINGING SUBSIDENCE AND DWINDLING SHOWER
CHANCES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.
IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. COUPLE THESE CONDITIONS WITH NEGATIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES AND CLEAR SKIES AND THE NORMALLY COOLER VALLEYS OF THE
NW MTNS COULD MAKE A RUN AT 40F.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN
OF RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FRI-TUE WITH
SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF LOW OVR THE MISS VALLEY BECOMING DETACHED FROM
MAIN BRANCH OF JET...THEN SLOWLY DRIFTING NE TOWARD PA. EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN...BUT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION APPEARS PRUDENT SAT-TUE
BASED ON GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. HOWEVER NEGATIVE TO
NEUTRAL PWATS THAT SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STIFLE ANY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO THE MOUNTAIN
REGIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...MAINLY ALONG THE LAURELS. THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE UPPER TROF TO THE WEST AND UPPER
RIDGE PARKED OFF THE SE COAST WILL DRAW INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HAVE SLOWLY RAMPED TEMPS UPWARD TOWARD
NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IR STLT SHOWS FOG PATTERN DEVELOPING IN THE RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES EARLY THIS MORNING. BFD IMPACTED THUS FAR
WITH LIFR-MVFR VIS AND 2-400FT AGL CIG RESTRICTIONS...WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE THRU SUNRISE. EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF QUICKLY
GIVING WAY TO VFR BY 12-13Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTN.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-MON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
135 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
FRIDAY...THEN OFF THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MAY
DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY AM WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU BASE OF
UPPER TROF OVR OHIO. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS
LACKING AS INDICATED BY 00Z PIT SOUNDING AND FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
PA IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY MORNING WITH MCLEAR SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS WARREN/MCKEAN COS...WHERE LAKE MOISTURE WILL MAKE A FEW
-SHRA POSSIBLE. RADAR AT 05Z SHOWS SOME OF THESE SHOWERS OVR ERIE
AND CRAWFORD COS AND LATEST RAP INDICATES PLUME OF HIGHER LAKE
MOISTURE WILL DRIFT INTO OUR NW COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.
TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE M/U40S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS
OF THE ALLEGHENIES. THE COOL TEMPS...IN COMBINATION WITH A CALM
WIND AND WARM RIVER/STREAM WATER...SHOULD PROMOTE LOCALLY DENSE
VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS AM IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
FURTHER EAST...AN UNEVENTFUL EARLY MORNING EXPECTED WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S UNDER MCLEAR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS TO START...FOLLOWED BY CUMULUS FORMATION AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
BY LATE AFTN...UPPER TROF AXIS SHOULD HAVE SWUNG EAST OF THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA...BRINGING SUBSIDENCE AND DWINDLING SHOWER
CHANCES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. COUPLE THESE CONDITIONS WITH NEGATIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES AND CLEAR SKIES AND THE NORMALLY COOLER VALLEYS OF THE
NW MTNS COULD MAKE A RUN AT 40F.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN
OF RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FRI-TUE WITH
SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF LOW OVR THE MISS VALLEY BECOMING DETACHED FROM
MAIN BRANCH OF JET...THEN SLOWLY DRIFTING NE TOWARD PA. EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN...BUT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION APPEARS PRUDENT SAT-TUE
BASED ON GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. HOWEVER NEGATIVE TO
NEUTRAL PWATS THAT SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STIFLE ANY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO THE MOUNTAIN
REGIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...MAINLY ALONG THE LAURELS. THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE UPPER TROF TO THE WEST AND UPPER
RIDGE PARKED OFF THE SE COAST WILL DRAW INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HAVE SLOWLY RAMPED TEMPS UPWARD TOWARD
NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL A FEW CLDS ACROSS THE REGION. 03Z TAFS ADJUSTED.
MAIN THING WILL BE ISOLATED POCKETS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG LAST NIGHT...EXPECT LESS
FOG TONIGHT WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS. ALSO PERHAPS SCT004 AT IPT
LATER TONIGHT...WILL JUST GO SCT FOR NOW...NOT BKN...GIVEN
WIND DIRECTION FROM THE NW.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AGAIN ON THU...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
NICE DAY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER MUCH NEEDED DRY DAY AFTER A
WET SPRING AND SUMMER SO FAR.
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM FROM
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST
SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-MON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
843 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...REMOVED RAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS...KEPT 20 POPS
OVER THE COAST AND GULF...LESS THAN 20 (MENTION OF SHOWERS) FOR
EASTERN INLAND COUNTIES. OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. PUBLIC PRODUCTS ARE OUT. MINOR CHANGES TO THE MARINE
WINDS (WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT FOR SUMMER).
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/
UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE ON THE FORECAST. WAS TEMPTED TO
REMOVE THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT WEST...BUT CAPES AND CONVERGENCE
FROM LAPS SAY TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS SOMETHING STILL COULD POP UP
THERE GIVEN SAID PARAMETERS. VERY LATE SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEARLY AT THE COAST (AS PER NCEP SURFACE ANALYSIS AND THETA-E
GRADIENT. FRONT MAY NOT MAKE TOO MUCH MORE PROGRESS....BUT DID
LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WHERE DEW
POINTS RIGHT NOW ARE IN THE LOWER 70S. HELD OFF ON MENTIONING FOG
JUST YET...BUT COULD HAVE SOME OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (STILL MAY HAVE TOO MANY
CLOUDS). FEW OTHER CHANGES...ESPECIALLY WINDS IN THE MARINE
FORECAST. DID NOT GO WITH THE RUC OUTPUT...BUT USED A BLEND OF
PREVIOUS FORECAST/NAM12/RUC FOR A FEW PARAMETERS. ALL UPDATED
PRODUCTS ARE OUT. MAY DO ANOTHER UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING FOR POP
ADJUSTMENTS AND AFOREMENTIONED FOG (IF APPLICABLE). SEE REMAINDER
OF UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...ANTICIPATE A TRANSITION FROM VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS GENERALLY EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 281
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE 09-13Z SATURDAY PERIOD. ISOLD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED DRG THE MID MORNING
HOURS MAINLY EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 281. MAINLY VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
DRG THE AFTN HOURS EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR
ISOLD/SCT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LGT/VARIABLE WIND
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS FOLLOWING BY
WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING DRG THE AFTN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
MOSTLY DIMINISHED FROM AN MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS
EARLIER TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL
STILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WITH PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE UPPER LVL TROUGH AGAIN
TOMORROW...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. EXPECT TO SEE MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN
TOMORROW THOUGH...WITH GREATEST DEVELOPMENT MOVING IN WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. WITH LESS COVERAGE OF RAIN AND CLOUDS TOMORROW...EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO MORE NORMAL
CONDITIONS...THOUGH LOWS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE MORE ON THE WARM
SIDE.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...LINGERING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ON SUNDAY MAINLY E AND NE OF
INTERSTATE 37 WITH UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS NEARBY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL THEN CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS EARLY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 100S OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...AROUND 100 OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY...AND MID/UPPER
90S ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE ON THE
RISE AS WELL WITH THE HI GENERALLY BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
GENERALLY BE LOW AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY WERE RETAINED
FOR NOW WITH WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST. CONVECTION
COULD APPROACH THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
IN RAIN CHANCES ATTM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 94 79 96 80 / 20 30 10 10 10
VICTORIA 74 94 77 96 78 / 10 30 20 20 10
LAREDO 77 101 80 104 81 / 10 20 20 10 10
ALICE 75 97 78 100 78 / 10 30 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 79 90 81 92 81 / 20 30 20 20 10
COTULLA 74 98 77 102 78 / 10 20 20 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 97 79 99 79 / 20 30 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 79 91 81 92 81 / 20 30 20 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
651 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE ON THE FORECAST. WAS TEMPTED TO
REMOVE THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT WEST...BUT CAPES AND CONVERGENCE
FROM LAPS SAY TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS SOMETHING STILL COULD POP UP
THERE GIVEN SAID PARAMETERS. VERY LATE SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEARLY AT THE COAST (AS PER NCEP SURFACE ANALYSIS AND THETA-E
GRADIENT. FRONT MAY NOT MAKE TOO MUCH MORE PROGRESS....BUT DID
LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WHERE DEW
POINTS RIGHT NOW ARE IN THE LOWER 70S. HELD OFF ON MENTIONING FOG
JUST YET...BUT COULD HAVE SOME OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (STILL MAY HAVE TOO MANY
CLOUDS). FEW OTHER CHANGES...ESPECIALLY WINDS IN THE MARINE
FORECAST. DID NOT GO WITH THE RUC OUTPUT...BUT USED A BLEND OF
PREVIOUS FORECAST/NAM12/RUC FOR A FEW PARAMETERS. ALL UPDATED
PRODUCTS ARE OUT. MAY DO ANOTHER UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING FOR POP
ADJUSTMENTS AND AFOREMENTIONED FOG (IF APPLICABLE). SEE REMAINDER
OF UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...ANTICIPATE A TRANSITION FROM VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS GENERALLY EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 281
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE 09-13Z SATURDAY PERIOD. ISOLD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED DRG THE MID MORNING
HOURS MAINLY EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 281. MAINLY VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
DRG THE AFTN HOURS EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR
ISOLD/SCT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LGT/VARIABLE WIND
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS FOLLOWING BY
WEAK/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING DRG THE AFTN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
MOSTLY DIMINISHED FROM AN MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS
EARLIER TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL
STILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WITH PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE UPPER LVL TROUGH AGAIN
TOMORROW...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. EXPECT TO SEE MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN
TOMORROW THOUGH...WITH GREATEST DEVELOPMENT MOVING IN WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. WITH LESS COVERAGE OF RAIN AND CLOUDS TOMORROW...EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO MORE NORMAL
CONDITIONS...THOUGH LOWS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE MORE ON THE WARM
SIDE.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...LINGERING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ON SUNDAY MAINLY E AND NE OF
INTERSTATE 37 WITH UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS NEARBY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL THEN CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS EARLY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 100S OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...AROUND 100 OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY...AND MID/UPPER
90S ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE ON THE
RISE AS WELL WITH THE HI GENERALLY BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
GENERALLY BE LOW AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY WERE RETAINED
FOR NOW WITH WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST. CONVECTION
COULD APPROACH THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
IN RAIN CHANCES ATTM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 94 79 96 80 / 20 30 10 10 10
VICTORIA 74 94 77 96 78 / 20 30 20 20 10
LAREDO 77 101 80 104 81 / 20 20 20 10 10
ALICE 75 97 78 100 78 / 20 30 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 79 90 81 92 81 / 20 30 20 20 10
COTULLA 74 98 77 102 78 / 20 20 20 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 97 79 99 79 / 20 30 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 79 91 81 92 81 / 20 30 20 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
609 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
4 KM NCEP WRF INITIALIZED BEST AT 00Z BUT THE RAP 13 SEEMS TO BE
VERIFYING BEST AT 11Z. BLENDED THE RAP/WRF FOR TODAY AND LEANED
TOWARD THE NAM12/ECMWF TONIGHT. WILL CARRY VCSH FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY AND MAINTAINED A TEMPO FOR AFTN TSRA. SKY CONDS WILL VARY
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014/
DISCUSSION...
RADAR STARTING TO GET MORE RETURNS ON IT THIS MORNING WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURRING IN NORTH TEXAS. AT 250 MB AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AGAIN EXISTS OVER OUR AREA AS A RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND A TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST.
AT 500 MB A SHORTWAVE WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE WYOMING/ COLORADO
BORDER. THE SHORTWAVE CAN ALSO CLEARLY BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THIS
MORNING. THIS IS THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT 850 MB THERE WAS
A SHEAR AXIS RUNNING SOUTHEAST TO NORTH FROM A GALVESTON TO
HOUSTON TO MADISONVILLE LINE.
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TRICKY AS THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE JUST A
TAD TO NORTH STILL TO BE THE DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS
AROUND 2.00". THE 4KM NCEP WRF INITIALIZED THE BEST BUT MISSED
THIS MORNINGS PRECIP. GLOBAL MODELS DIDN`T INITIALIZE GREAT BUT
ARE SHOWING THIS MORNINGS PRECIP. OVERALL HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
4KM NCEP WRF DUE TO GOOD PERFORMANCE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THINK THAT WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE RICH AIR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL IN. THE FOCUS
LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE 850 SHEAR AXIS (OR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ZONES). NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME THOUGH. THEN INTO
TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. AT 250MB SOUTHEAST TEXAS FALLS INTO A WEAK RRQ WITH PVA
MOVING OVERHEAD. 850MB WINDS ALSO START TO PICK UP SPEED AT THIS
TIME WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOWING AT LEAST 30KTS. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE IN NORTH TEXAS/
LOUISIANA ALONG A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. GFS OMEGA FIELDS SHOW
WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN THIS AREA WITH ONLY POCKETS OF
UPPER LEVEL LIFT DOWN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE NEW NAM SHOWS MORE
PVA OVER OUR AREA AND THEREFORE MORE UPPER LEVEL LIFT. EITHER WAY
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY.
THE QUESTION REMAINS ON THE FLOODING THREAT. STORM MOTION REMAINS
AROUND 15KTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ALSO IS AT 4" FOR A
3HR TOTAL. THE 4KM NCEP WRF ALSO KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL NORTH
OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE GRIDS
FOR ONLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE CWA OR APPROXIMATELY A LINE FROM
BRENHAM TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD FOR
THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. PEOPLE SHOULD STAY TUNED
FOR UPDATES THOUGH AS WE FURTHER REFINE THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL. GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT AIR (AT OR ABOVE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR) AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE.
THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OUT WEST
WITH SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAINING ON THE PERIPHERY. AS OF NOW THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN IN. THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK MODELS ALSO MOVE A POTENT SHORTWAVE
SOUTHWARDS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ALLOWING THE CHANCES OF RAIN TO
CONTINUE FOR OUR AREA. 23
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER WEST TEXAS WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A SCEC
HAS BEEN ISSUED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR THE 0 TO 60 NM
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA TODAY AND FRIDAY. MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND NEAR ALL STORMS. THE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 89 74 89 74 92 / 50 70 60 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 88 75 87 75 91 / 50 70 60 40 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 79 88 80 89 / 50 50 60 50 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1152 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
.AVIATION...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE NORTH
TEXAS TERMINALS DURING THIS TAF FORECAST. ON GOING CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE METROPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
ACROSS THE METROPLEX TERMINALS 07-12Z WHILE UPSTREAM CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL BEGIN ANOTHER WAVE OF CONVECTION /MCS/ ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR CIGS DURING ANY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND COULD LAST THROUGH 12Z BEFORE IMPROVING. EXPECTING
VFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THURSDAY...THEN BECOMING MVFR TO IFR
THURSDAY NIGHT AS NEAR CONTINUOUS CONVECTION PREVAILS.
ALTERNATE TERMINALS SHOULD BE PLANNED FOR AS KDFW INBOUND TRAFFIC
WOULD BE IMPACTED BY CLUSTERS OF TSRA AT/NEAR THE CORNER POSTS.
UNSURE ABOUT A KDFW GROUND STOP...BUT ITS POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR
SO AT SOME TIME WITHIN THIS FORECAST...MOST LIKELY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY EVENING. 75
&&
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER...OTHER STORMS ARE BETWEEN CHILDRESS AND GRAHAM...
WITH AN ADDITIONAL COMPLEX OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT EXTENDS FROM OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO
NORTH OF JUNCTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS
GOOD. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/
MODELS STRUGGLED TODAY AND UNDERESTIMATED THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH 18Z FORECAST DEW POINTS GENERALLY 3-7 DEGREES BELOW
THE METARS. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM JACKSBORO TO GRANBURY TO
CORSICANA. STORMS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE BETTER PRECIP STILL TO COME THURSDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE DOES CONVERGE ON HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM ONE OR MORE MCS
OR MCS SEGMENTS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP
THAT WE ARE EXPECTING. THERE MAY BE HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWEST INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY THAT MAY SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY AS WELL. HRRR HINTS AT THIS BUT TTU
WRF DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK.
THE SECOND ROUND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...ALSO IN THE FORM OF SOME SORT OF MCS OR QLCS. THESE
STORMS WILL BE AIDED BY A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE AND A PUSH FROM
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.
PRECIP WILL SHUT DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TO OUR WEST.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN THE EAST AND HAVE LEFT THE
20 POPS THERE. CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. THERE MAY HAVE TO BE LOW POPS ADDED NEAR MID WEEK FOR A
POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT THERE IS NO CONSENSUS ON IT YET. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 74 88 73 87 73 / 70 80 80 50 10
WACO, TX 75 89 75 88 72 / 30 60 80 50 20
PARIS, TX 67 83 69 83 70 / 40 90 90 60 20
DENTON, TX 73 85 71 86 71 / 70 90 90 50 10
MCKINNEY, TX 71 86 72 86 70 / 60 90 90 50 10
DALLAS, TX 74 88 73 87 73 / 70 80 80 50 20
TERRELL, TX 72 89 73 88 71 / 50 80 90 60 20
CORSICANA, TX 73 89 73 86 72 / 30 60 80 50 20
TEMPLE, TX 74 89 75 86 73 / 20 50 60 50 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 86 70 85 70 / 80 80 80 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ091>095-101>107-117>123.
&&
$$
75/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
634 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WHILE WEAK RIDGING WAS TAKING PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN WI ONTO ONTARIO. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS QUITE A BIT
OF CUMULUS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLER AIR RESIDING ALOFT. SO
FAR...NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES WERE NOTED ON RADAR AND PROBABLY
SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY WITH RAP BUFKIT SHOWING A FAIRLY GOOD CAP
RIGHT AROUND 700MB. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGED
FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS.
QUIET NIGHT ON TAP FOR THE AREA WITH SOME PASSING CUMULUS. LOOK FOR
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS 0-1KM MLCAPE BUILDS INTO THE 600-1200J/KG RANGE FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI AS THE WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. NOT
MUCH FOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AROUND TO GENERATE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDER
ACTIVITY. PLAN ON HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WI SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TAIL-END
OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIP ACROSS THAT AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH GETS DEFLECTED NORTHWEST
INTO NORTHERN MN. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES UP
ACROSS THAT AREA...WITH ARX FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY.
OTHERWISE...A BIT WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE AND DEW POINTS CREEPING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.
MODELS SHOWING GOOD CONSENSUS WITH 850-700MB WAA/ISENTROPIC
LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHRA/THUNDER CHANCES.
THE AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD CAP BUILDING IN THE 800-850MB
LAYER AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. THIS SHOULD SHUT DOWN
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. OTHERWISE...LOOKS WARMER AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE AND DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S. WITH THESE TEMPS/DEW POINTS...HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE IN
THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE
BEST FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90.
SOME LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK COOLER AS THE REGION BECOMES DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY ACROSS
THE WEST AS THE MODELS SHOW A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KLSE/KRST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
THE ONLY CONCERN BEING THE APPROACH OF A WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST TOMORROW. BULK OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND IT
GENERALLY WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES AS WELL...SO ONLY EXPECTING
SCATTERED/BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE MORNING HOURS WILL LEAD TO GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS...BUT THIS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....ZT
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMBINED
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTED TO ANOTHER AFTERNOON
OF HIGH BASED CU. LIKE YESTERDAY...NO RETURNS ON AREA RADARS.
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE QUIET AS
WELL...SO FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL OVER THIS PERIOD...AND
INCLUDE CLOUDS AND TEMPS.
TONIGHT...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER ACROSS
THE STATE. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZE AND MODIFYING LOW LEVEL TEMPS. BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGES IN REGARDS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN TODAY. BUT THE CAP IS PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN BETWEEN
700-650MB SO THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FORMING FROM THE HIGH BASED CU
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. THIS CU IS AGAIN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
MDLS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE MEAN FLOW TRANSITION FROM WRN CONUS
UPR RDG/ERN CONUS UPR TROF TO A PACIFIC NW UPR TROF/CNTRL CONUS
UPR RDG/NE CONUS UPR TROF. INITIALLY...THE CNTRL CONUS UPR RDG TO
EXTEND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER AIR/CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT TO NE WI WITH LITTLE PCPN. HOWEVER...TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPR RDG REFOCUSES TO THE PLAINS AND BRINGS A NW
FLOW TO WI. THIS TRANSITION WOULD EVENTUALLY BRING COOLER/MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE FCST AREA. EXACTLY HOW ALL OF THIS
PLAYS OUT REMAINS THE BIGGEST FCST CHALLENGE.
EVEN THO HI PRES TO HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD NEW ENGLAND FRI NGT...NE
WI TO REMAIN UNDER ITS WRN FRINGE TO KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET. A
PREVAILING S-SW WIND WL CONT TO PULL WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR MASS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...JUST NOT AS FAST AS SOME OF THE MDLS
ADVERTISE. AS A RESULT...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE
55-60 DEG RANGE OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA.
ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY WHERE A WEAK CDFNT IS
FCST TO TRY AND PUSH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON SAT. PARTS OF
N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE ANY PCPN TO BE TIED TO THE FNT AND REMAIN TO
OUR NW THRU THE DAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S INLAND...MID TO UPR 70S CLOSER TO LAKE MI.
THIS CDFNT IS PROGGED BY THE MDLS TO GRADUALLY WIPE-OUT TO OUR NW
SAT NGT...PRIMARILY DUE TO A LACK OF PUSH BEHIND IT (WINDS ALREADY
TURNING SOUTH OVER MN. FURTHERMORE...ANY UPR SUPPORT PASSES BY TO
OUR NORTH. THEREFORE...PREFER TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR SAT NGT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MIN TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO MILDER
THAN FRI NGT WHICH WOULD PLACE MOST OF NE WI AROUND THE 60 DEG
MARK. AS AN UPR TROF BEGINS TO DIG S-SE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW ON
SUNDAY...THE DOWNSTREAM UPR RDG TO BUILD NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD WI WITH RISING UPR HEIGHTS AND WARMING 8H TEMPS. THESE
RISING UPR HEIGHTS WOULD BRING A CAP TO THE ATMOSPHERE AND PREVENT
ANY SHWRS/TSTMS FROM DEVELOPING. THE WARMING 8H TEMPS WL SEND MAX
TEMPS INTO THE LWR TO MID 80S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 70S LAKESIDE.
SOME DOUBT CREEPS INTO THE FCST BY MON AS THE STRENGTH OF THE UPR
RDG COMES INTO QUESTION. MDLS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF CRUISING
ACROSS SRN CANADA AND IF THE RDG WEAKENS AT ALL...PARTS OF NRN OR
CNTRL WI WOULD BE VULNERABLE TO A PASSING SHWR OR TSTM EITHER LATE
SUNDAY NGT OR ON MON. THE REST OF NE WI SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER DAY ON MON WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S AND MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S (AGAIN COOLER
NEAR LAKE MI).
TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY STARTING LATER MON NGT INTO TUE WITH
REGARDS TO A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROF AND CDFNT. WHILE THE LONG-
TERM MDLS AGREE NOW THAT THE UPR RDG WL REFOCUS TO THE ERN ROCKIES/
WRN PLAINS...THE MDLS CONT TO WAFFLE WITH HOW FAST TO SEND THE
SHORTWAVE TROF/CDFNT THRU WI. THE LATEST MDL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT
THE TUE/TUE NGT TIME FRAME WOULD BE THE BEST CHC OF SEEING AN AREA-
WIDE PCPN EVENT...WITH THE PCPN LINGERING INTO WED. TEMPS ARE NO
BARGAIN EITHER ON TUE AS TEMPS COULD REALLY WARM AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT. IF THIS FNT SLOW DOWN AT ALL...PARTS OF NE WI COULD BE
PUSHING THE 90 DEG MARK.
PCPN CHCS WOULD THEN TAPER OFF LATER ON WED AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF/
CDFNT DEPART. UNCERTAINTY WL CARRY OVER FROM TUE INTO WED UNTIL
ALL THE MDLS CAN CORRECTLY TIME THIS SYSTEM THRU THE REGION. BY
THU...HI PRES TO HAVE BUILT INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BROUGHT
COOLER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO NE WI WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.
A SCT TO BKN CUMULUS FIELD WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...ONLY TO REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE
CU WILL BE HIGH BASED...SO NO THREAT TO CIGS FALLING BELOW VFR.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KTS TOO.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER
CONDITIONS AND A STEADY WARMING TREND. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE SUMMER ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER DESERTS EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH
THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ WHERE THE
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
STEERING FLOW HAS INCREASED TO 15 TO 25 KT AND IS GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX AND A SPRAWLING
RIDGE ACROSS AZ/NM. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AZ...IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING 50 KT
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED JET STREAK. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS MORNING IN AN ARC EXTENDING FROM YUMA TO PHOENIX AND THEN
BACK INTO SE AZ...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK BUT DISCERNIBLE
VORTICITY AND JET-FORCED ASCENT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE
SPRINKLE/SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST WHILE LIFTING NORTH AND
WESTWARD THIS MORNING. POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST WEIGHT ASSIGNED TO THE 03Z SREF. ALTHOUGH SOME
SPOTS IN THE PHOENIX AREA MAY SEE A BRIEF SHOWER EARLY THIS
MORNING...THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SE CA...INCLUDING JTNP...WHERE INSTABILITY...ASCENT
AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES WILL BE MAXIMIZED. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUDS/VIRGA/SPRINKLES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW AVERAGE.
A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE MONSOON
HIGH ACROSS NM AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST. A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH A STEADY
WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH INTENSIFIES TO OVER 600
DAM. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL DRIFT TO A POSITION JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS...RESULTING
IN A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FROM AT LEAST TUESDAY
ONWARD. DEBRIS CLOUDS AND PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND OUTFLOWS WILL
TEMPER THE HEAT SOMEWHAT...THOUGH WE MAY BE FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE
HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY
BE DORMANT UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. GFS SUGGESTS THAT A PV
DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE TO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
CONVECTION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA KBLH AND KIPL...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CIGS TO ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME SPRINKLES THAT FALL FROM THESE CLOUDS
COULD AFFECT ONE...OR MORE OF THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY -SHRA OR VCSH
REMARKS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SEE
AT LEAST SOME CLEARING AT THE PHX AREAS SITES...BUT CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND EVEN A REMOTE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM APPEARS TO BE
IN THE CARDS FOR THE SE CA TAF SITES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 10
KNOTS AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS EXCEPT KBLH...WHERE SOME GUSTY S-LY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THOUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN MAINLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. DURING THIS TIME AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS...WITH MODERATE TO
GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY EACH DAY. WIND WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS AND AVERAGE ABOUT 10 KTS...THOUGH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHEN LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL PEAK IN
THE 110-115 RANGE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1243 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
238 PM CDT
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL RAMP UP
IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THEREFORE ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER AFTERNOON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE PATTERN IS
GENERALLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...EXCEPT THERE A DISTURBANCE PASSING
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST PROVIDING A GLANCING BLOW OF MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH THERE IS A VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THEREFORE A LAKE BREEZE
HAS MADE HEADWAY INLAND ONCE AGAIN. FEW LITTLE SPECKLES ON THE RADAR
HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY BUT FALL APART
ALMOST AS SOON AS THEY FORM. READINGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH POCKETS OF LOW 80S...AGAIN COOLER NEAR THE LAKEFRONT.
THERE IS SHORTWAVE SKIRTING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EMBEDDED
BENEATH A LARGER SCALE LOW FARTHER NORTH..BUT HEIGHT RISES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS FOCUSED.
OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY BE
ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAKING IT START TO FEEL A
BIT MORE LIKE IT USUALLY DOES IN MID JULY...ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONAL WAVES WILL ATTEMPT GLIDE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT THE UPPER JET REMAINS FOCUSED WELL TO OUR NORTH. BY
MONDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS WELL. AS
THIS HAPPENING THERE ARE SOME RIPPLES IN THE FLOW AROUND THE LARGE
UPPER RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A DECAYING AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...BUT MID
RANGE MODELS KEEP THE LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA. THIS AGAIN LOOKS TO BE THE CASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS A BIT BETTER AND THERE IS A BIT STRONGER
WAVE TO WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND SHOWING HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAN NORMAL AT THIS RANGE ON AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET AHEAD OF DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL ALLOW SOME ENERGY TO ROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO
1.75" OR SLIGHTLY MORE TO OUR WEST WHILE A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH
AXIS IN NW FLOW SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOW
PASSES THROUGH...PARTS OF THE REGION LOOK TO SEE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE THE JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT REMAINS
POISED TO DRIVE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KT EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON THANKS TO LAKE INFLUENCE.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SPREAD FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CALM
TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION FROM MID MORNING ONWARD. LAKE
INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY TURN WINDS EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ORD/MDW AND POSSIBLY DPA
DURING THE EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. WITH A SIMILAR SET UP TO
FRIDAY...WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR SPEEDS TO OCCUR THE WIND SHIFT
SUPPORTING SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THAT AT TIMES AS WELL. GYY SHOULD SEE A MORE
EAST OR EVEN NORTHEAST DIRECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BECOMING LIGHT OR EVEN CALM. VFR WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH MID CLOUDS SHOULD CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CU EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHIFT TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS...MEDIUM-HIGH
THAT SPEEDS WILL REACH AT LEAST 10 KT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
250 PM...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES AND
MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WEAKER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION AND FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS A LAKE BREEZE FORMS. FURTHER NORTH...THE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TOWARD THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL TURN
LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES...ITS
POSSIBLE WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT EASTERLY AGAIN ON SUNDAY OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE.
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY ON
SATURDAY AS IT WEAKENS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST TO HUDSON BAY BY
MONDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE. NEW LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
A COLD FRONT DOWN THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1110 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 850 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Another quiet night weather-wise as high pressure off to our east
will continue to dominate our weather thru the weekend with a day
to day warming trend. In addition, surface dew points will gradaully
increase as well, especially when the surface flow becomes more
southerly on Sunday. Forecast soundings off the RAP model and the
last several runs of the HRRR model suggest the potential for some
fog to form just before dawn Saturday, especially across the east
and southeast. However, it still doesn`t appear to be widespread
enough at this time to warrant including in the zone forecast this
evening. As a result, our current ZFP is handling the evening
trends well, so an update is not warranted at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1105 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Little change from previous thinking earlier this evening. Other
than the potential for some shallow ground fog, which may bring
vsbys down into the MVFR range in the 10z-12z time frame, VFR
conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast period.
Forecast soundings suggest cumulus development around 16z with
scattered to broken cigs in the 4000-6000 foot range during the
afternoon with most sites seeing scattered cloud cover. Surface
winds will be light and variable tonight and then become east
to southeast at less than 10 kts on Saturday.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 311 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
SHORT TERM...
A shortwave trough is currently tracking ENE along the Ohio River
Valley away from Illinois with mid and high cloud cover
decreasing. Another day of scattered low level cumulus cloud
cover has developed as a result of a capped shallow convective
layer from around 6000-9000 feet and this will dissipate overnight
with the loss of surface heating. Dewpoints this afternoon are a
bit below forecast minimum temperatures overnight and look too
marginal for mention of fog in public forecasts...although some
shallow localized fog isn`t completely out of the question. For
Saturday...a very similar day is expected except a few degrees of
increase in both temperature and dewpoint are in store as the cool
air mass of the past several days moves off to the northeast.
LONG TERM...
A high pressure ridge will build over the Rockies and Western
Plains through early next week. This will yield a stable
atmospheric profile over central Illinois for dry
conditions...and an increasing trend in temperatures and
dewpoints. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to around 90
degrees while dewpoints reach the lower 70s. By Late Tuesday or
Wednesday...models continue to bring a shortwave over the top of
the ridge to the west. This will likely bring a cold front through
the region for chances of precipitation back to Illinois. A
cooling trend with less humidity will likely accompany this
pattern as well Wednesday through Friday.
Onton
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
230 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE REGION...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH RADAR SHOWING
SOME COVERAGE THERE NOW AND HRRR INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR THESE
ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO HANG AROUND OFF AND ON
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THAT AREA AS
WELL. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO COVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH MOISTURE. SO...LEFT
OUT MENTION AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S...WHICH WAS CAPTURED WELL BY ALLBLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP CHANCES WITH
UPPER WAVES.
FIRST...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS
TO THE EAST. AT THAT POINT...THERE IS SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM FOR SUNDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH WETTER THAN
THE NAM AND WANTS TO BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES IN FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER
FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE NAM REMAINS DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD AND MAINTAINS MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DECIDED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA
FOR SUNDAY SINCE THE EURO ALSO SUPPORTS THE WETTER GFS.
TEMPS...GRADUAL WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD FOR
NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO TREND THIS TOWARD THE COOLER NAM IF FUTURE
MODEL RUNS INCREASE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY AS LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE WEST OF INDIANA WILL PUSH A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INDIANA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.
IN THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...THE GFS AND ECMWF PROGRESS TO NW
FLOW ALOFT. THE ECMWF BRINGS A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW TOWARD INDIANA
AND SETTLES IT OVER OUR STATE FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
GFS FAILS TO CREATE A CUT-OFF SYSTEM...BUT STILL MANAGES TO PUSH AN
OPEN TROUGH THROUGH INDIANA AT THE SAME TIME...AND PUSH A COLD
FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
NW FLOW AND THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS EXPECTED BY BOTH
MODELS...CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
UNREASONABLE. HOWEVER...ALLBLEND IS GOING DRY BY FRIDAY. THUS WILL
KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR DAYBREAK.
LAMP GUIDANCE IS REMAINS SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG AND PERHAPS LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED 4-5SM
AND SCT015 AFTER ABOUT 09-10Z THROUGH 14-15Z.
ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL END BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CUMULUS THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL BE BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD/JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
122 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 50S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT
EASTERN AREAS WHICH MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS OF 23Z SHOWS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS FEATURE IS MODELED TO STRENGTHEN
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BY LATER TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MID LEVEL DYNAMIC
FORCING/DEFORMATION INTO OUR EAST MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
MOISTENING/ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOR RAIN TO MEASURE LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR IS STARTING TO PICK UP ON TRENDS
WITH LIGHT RAIN ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT KVES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE (700 MB THETA-E GRADIENT). GIVEN THESE TRENDS
BUMPED UP POPS A BIT EAST OF INTERSTATE 69...WITH DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS LIKELY SLOWING NWD PROGRESSION...HENCE THE LOWER
POPS/UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE...ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER TO READ
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE IWX CWA
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA INTO THE ARKLATEX AREA WILL
SLOWLY EJECT TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLY...SPREADING MOISTURE
TOWARDS MAINLY SE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. NOT AN OVERLY STRONG SYSTEM BY ANY MEASURE WITH MAIN
IMPACTS BEING INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MARGINAL CHANCE FOR RAIN LATER
TONIGHT AND SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES ON SATURDAY. IF POPS WEREN`T IN
ALREADY WOULD PROBABLY HOLD OFF DESPITE MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF IN
FAR EAST/SE AREAS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH CONSENSUS FROM MODELS TO KEEP
FROM FLIP FLOPPING SO HAVE LEFT POPS INTACT. DID TRY TO ADD A BIT
MORE DETAIL/TIMING.
AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM A NICE DAY SHOULD
BE IN STORE WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S. LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES IN SE AREAS WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER LIKELY LIMITING
OVERALL HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDINESS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...LOCAL AREA
SHOULD BE CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO AXES OF DEEPER MOISTURE...ONE DEPARTING
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER CONFINED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH GENERALLY WEAK MID/UPPER
FORCING INTO MOST OF TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS PERIOD
DRY. GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF AIR MASS ALONG WITH UPSWING IN LOW
LEVEL WAA AND GOOD DEAL OF INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST. A SERIES OF RIDGE-RIDING SHORT WAVES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND DAMPEN AS THEY
PROGRESS EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER PROSPECTS OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PUSH HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN A STRONGER
EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. SOME LOW
CONFIDENCE STILL PERSISTS IN REGARDS TO TIMING THIS FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE DUE TO INFLUENCES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...AND MODELS LIKELY STRUGGLING WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES. GFS/GEM REMAIN SOMEWHAT FASTER OUTLIERS IN TERMS OF FRONTAL
PROGRESSION INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE OPTED TO SIDE TOWARD A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF/GEFS MEAN IDEA AT THIS TIME WITH SOME
SUSPICION THAT GFS MAY BE LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS A BIT FAST DUE
TO FEEDBACK ISSUES. THIS SOLUTION ALSO MAINTAINS FORECAST
CONTINUITY...WITH INCREASING CHANCE POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT LATE TUE-WED...WHICH ARGUES FOR MID TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PARTS OF THURSDAY AS UPPER WAVE
BECOMES SOMEWHAT DIVORCED FROM PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES.
HAVE CONTINUED FORECAST TREND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY...WITH INDICATIONS THAT ACTIVE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME DAMPENING OF UPPER RIDGING AND EASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS MAY BE WITHIN REACH...PARTICULARLY ON
TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPS IS SOMEWHAT LOWER FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH UNCERTAINTIES INTO TIMING INCREASE OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS. AFTER A FEW DAYS OF TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...A COOLER
AIR MASS SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THU-FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE LIGHT SE GRADIENT
WINDS ACROSS NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT WHILE AN UPR LEVEL LOW LIFTING
N-NE INTO WRN OH CAUSES CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER NE
INDIANA. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG LIKELY IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT
DOUBT THIS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. SCT-BKN CU SHOULD DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO THE EVE GIVEN VERY WEAK
FLOW OVER THE AREA.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1245 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE REGION...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH RADAR SHOWING
SOME COVERAGE THERE NOW AND HRRR INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR THESE
ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO HANG AROUND OFF AND ON
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THAT AREA AS
WELL. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO COVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN FOR SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH MOISTURE. SO...LEFT
OUT MENTION AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S...WHICH WAS CAPTURED WELL BY ALLBLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP CHANCES WITH
UPPER WAVES.
FIRST...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS
TO THE EAST. AT THAT POINT...THERE IS SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM FOR SUNDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH WETTER THAN
THE NAM AND WANTS TO BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES IN FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER
FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE NAM REMAINS DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD AND MAINTAINS MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DECIDED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA
FOR SUNDAY SINCE THE EURO ALSO SUPPORTS THE WETTER GFS.
TEMPS...GRADUAL WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD FOR
NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO TREND THIS TOWARD THE COOLER NAM IF FUTURE
MODEL RUNS INCREASE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES MIDWEEK.
MODELS AGREE THAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THEN...THE MODELS DIVERGE AS THE 00Z
ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A MIDWEST
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT AS COMPARED TO THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z
CANADIAN. THE LATTER BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE FORMER BRING IT DOWN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH SOLUTION STILL UP IN THE AIR...WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE
WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND DRY THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
WITH RETURN FLOW AND UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA...TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW DEGREES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT TO THE UPPER 70S AND MID 80S BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE SHOULD GET BETTER REGARDING THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND
TEMPERATURES AS IT GETS CLOSER AND THE MODELS LIKELY CONVERGE ON A
MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR DAYBREAK.
LAMP GUIDANCE IS REMAINS SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG AND PERHAPS LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED 4-5SM
AND SCT015 AFTER ABOUT 09-10Z THROUGH 14-15Z.
ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL END BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CUMULUS THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL BE BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...NIELD/JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
120 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THIS
PRIMARILY AFFECTED THE POP AND WX SCHEMES. THE LATEST HRRR AND NEW
00Z NAM12 SUGGEST A COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO
THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS FIRST WAVE SLOWLY DEPARTS AFTER 06Z WITH A
RESURGENCE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAWN. THIS WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
ITS ATTENDANT JET STREAKS AND SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HAVE BEEFED UP
THE RAIN TOTALS FOR THE SOUTHEAST A BIT MORE INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY FOR
THIS. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE TRAINING...EXPECT THE RATES TO REMAIN
AT A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR OR LESS KEEPING THE AMOUNTS
AND RUNOFF ISSUES FROM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL...THOUGH IT WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED SHOULD THE RATES PICK UP WITH THIS CURRENT SURGE OR
THE NEXT. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
22Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH TARGETING EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DREARY DAY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HELPING TO CAP TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE COOL AIR PREVENTED
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...ZEROING OUT THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. THE MOISTURE INFLOW AND FOCUSING
MECHANISM...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT THE RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST PLACES. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM CONCUR WITH THIS
ASSESSMENT AS BOTH TARGET THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE MOST SUSTAINED RAINS AND TIMES OF MODERATE RAINFALL RATES.
EVEN WITHOUT THE SHOWERS THE AIR MASS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE DAMP
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AROUND. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST WITH THIS IN MIND ALONG WITH THE INCORPORATION OF THE
LATEST RADAR/OBS DATA...TRENDS...AND HIGH RES CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
WHICH WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
THIS HAS GENERATED A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE A COMBINATION OF THE OVER RUNNING OF THE
FRONT AND THE DYNAMICS FROM BEING NEAR THE UPPER LOW. HAVE DECIDED TO
TAKE THE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW
LEVEL STABILITY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER THEY WOULD BE RARE. THE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING
MODERATED BY ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER AND WILL LIKELY SET A MIN HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE DAY. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN FROM NEAR DAWN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DUE TO THE
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS...AND THE RIVERS
STARTING OUT VERY LOW...THE ONLY HYDROLOGY ISSUES SHOULD BE
LOCALIZED HIGH WATER...WITH STREAMS....DITCHES... AND LOW WATER
CROSSING RUNNING FULL OVER THE AREAS OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
A TROUGHING PATTERN WILL SIT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
DAY 5 ON TUESDAY...WHILE STRONG RIDGING SITS OVER THE SW. AS
SUCH...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THOUGH NO
MAJOR SYSTEMS ARE POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...GENERAL SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PULL IN WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL MEAN BOTH THE RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS
THE DAILY THREAT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING
AND DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT ON SOLUTIONS AT
THIS POINT...BUT DO EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO BEGIN IMPACTING KY BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS WELL. KEPT MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
NEARS AND PASSES OVER. POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN FRIDAY.
TEMPS LEADING UP TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...ALONG
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK
DOWN TO AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SHORTLY BEFORE TAF ISSUANCE...STEADY RAIN WAS ON THE WAY OUT TO THE
NE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER EAST KY. CONDITIONS WERE
LARGELY IFR OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
EAST KY...CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING RAIN SHIELD. FURTHER WEST...
CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY VFR.
THE GFS AND NAM AGREE ON ANOTHER INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE BEFORE
DAWN...AND LASTING INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD AFFECT ALL
OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS AROUND
MOUNT STERLING AND FLEMINGSBURG. A DETERIORATION TO MOSTLY IFR IS
EXPECTED. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS PRECIP DISSIPATES...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
537 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS ALONG THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER 24HRS AGO IS NOW JUST NE
OF LAKE WINNIPEG. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO
FAR NW MN AND THE ERN DAKOTAS. SLOW MOVING NARROW BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NCNTRL MN INTO ADJACENT
ONTARIO.
MAIN FCST CONCERN TODAY/TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AS
SHORTWAVE NE OF LAKE WINNIPEG LIFTS NE TO HUDSON BAY. BECAUSE
SHORTWAVE IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NE AND BECAUSE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS MOVING ACROSS ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...COLD
FRONT WILL BE DECAYING AS IT MOVES E TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES
TODAY/TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME AS TAIL OF SHORTWAVE AND DECAYING COLD FRONT APPROACH.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MID LEVEL CAP THAT PREVENTED CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING YESTERDAY WILL ERODE TODAY...AT LEAST OVER WRN UPPER
MI. SO...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TODAY OVER THE W.
GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF FRONT OVER THE LAST
24HRS AND SINCE MAIN FORCING IS LIFTING N OF THE AREA...NOTHING MORE
THAN SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS APPEAR WARRANTED THIS AFTN OVER THE W.
WITH MLCAPE ONLY INCREASING TO AROUND 500J/KG OR SO AND WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR UNDER 25KT...STRONG OR SVR TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. AS
TAIL OF SHORTWAVE AND WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT A NARROW BAND OF SCHC POPS EASTWARD INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI. AS FOR TEMPS...MIXING TO 850-800MB ON NAM/GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...
MOSTLY UPPER 70S TO LWR 80S...BUT LOCALLY WARMER IN THE S WIND
DOWNSLOPE AREAS AND COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SUN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EVEN AS A FEW MODELS SHOWED SOME MINOR
QPF OVER PARTS OF THE CWA ALONG A PASSING VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE. THINK
THAT SHORTWAVE FORCING WILL NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME
DRY AIR.
SUN NIGHT/MON WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AS
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 22C. MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT RESIDUAL
CONVECTION MAY DECAY AS IT MOVES E INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT AM UNCERTAIN ABOUT THIS OCCURRING. THINK THAT EVEN IF
DECAYING CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE CWA...ENOUGH CLEARING WILL OCCUR
FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI AND IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S OVER THE EAST HALF.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY FORM OVER THE DAKOTAS ON MON TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING E OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT.
ALONG WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. IT DOES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDUP OF
INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR ACROSS THE AREA AND A
40KT LLJ NOSING INTO THE CWA. GENERALLY...MODELS INDICATE OVER
2000J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX AND COLD FRONT...WITH
PLENTY OF SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 9C/KM. THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE A STOUT CAP OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...BUT IF A STRONG
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND/OR COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA THE
CAP COULD EASILY BE OVERCOME. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH...THERE IS A GOOD SHOT AT SEEING CONVECTION...AND THERE
IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER /LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY CONDITIONAL THREAT/.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A SFC HIGH SITS OVER THE CWA AND AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS WELL W OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS. LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT
IWD AND CMX AS A WEAKENING TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON AS
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE E WHILE A SERIES OF LOW PRES
SYSTEMS/TROFS MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA. ONE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL
FINALLY CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUE BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N OR
NW. WINDS THRU THE FCST PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCNL PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
(15-25KT) AT THE HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY AFTER SOME PCPN OCCURS. UNTIL THEN...FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE
THE LAKE WHERE FLOW IS MORE CONVERGENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
410 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS THAT FORMED OVER THE DAKOTAS HAS ADVANCED
INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BUT IS NOW IN A
WEAKENING PHASE AS FORCING ALONG THE FRONT DIMINISHES AND
INSTABILITY WANES. UP UNTIL THE LAST SET OF RUNS...THE CAMS
INCLUDING HRRR AND HOPWRF HAVE INDICATED THIS ACTIVITY WILL RE-FIRE
LATER THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY MEAGER WITH
INSTABILITY DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES...AND THE FRONT ESSENTIALLY
WASHES OUT. THUS...KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING DUE TO ONGOING ACTIVITY BUT
REMOVED CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...INCLUDING TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASING DRAMATICALLY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 90 TO 95 ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MN ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN ON SUNDAY WITH MIDDLE 70S COMMON ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA ON MONDAY. SURFACE DEW POINT FORECASTS FROM BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW POCKETS OF 80 DEG DP/S. APPARENT TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS FOR MONDAY ARE FROM 100 TO 105 FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON
WEST TO THE SD BORDER AS WELL AS INTO CENTRAL MN. SOME AREAS OF
105 TO 110 ARE NOTED IN WEST CENTRAL MN. CONTEMPLATED ON ISSUING
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF THE MN CWA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE INDICES IN WEST CENTRAL
MN BUT COLLABORATION ISSUES AND THE DURATION OF THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT (ONLY ONE DAY) PUT A DAMPER ON THAT. HOWEVER...AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE TWIN CITIES METRO FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD WHERE RULES ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. AS IT
STANDS...THE METRO AREA MEETS EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH INDICES FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES. IN ADDITION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
SLOWING. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COMPLEX OF STORMS
PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IF THIS SCENARIO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD...THEN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD
LIKELY BE NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH THE DEW POINT NEAR 75. IN FACT...A
YEAR AGO AND A DAY...7/18/13...MSP HAD A HIGH OF 94 WITH A LOW OF
80 WITH HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS IN EFFECT. THIS ALSO RAISES A RED
FLAG ABOUT HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS THAT MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN ON TUESDAY AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY PEAK AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. AGAIN...BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE DEPENDENT ON
WHERE THE STORMS OCCUR. IN SUMMARY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WILL NEED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE TWIN CITIES ON MONDAY
WITH AT LEAST AN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MN.
NOW ABOUT THE STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS SETTING UP TO BE AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
EVENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED BY THE GFS TO REACH
2.5 INCHES AT 12Z ON TUESDAY JUST NORTH OF THE METRO. THIS WOULD
BE A MAX PW RECORD IF IT OCCURS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON
SHOWING A BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL MN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. THE GFS IS CATCHING ON AND HAS BEEN
MOVING ITS MAX RAINFALL AREA NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. IT
NOW HAS A 3 TO 5 INCH AREA EARLY TUESDAY CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 8 IN WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE WITH THE HIGH PW
FORECAST. THE AREAS DEPICTED ARE AT THE NOSE OF STRONG 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. AT 500 MB...THERE IS A CORE OF 50 KNOT WINDS
PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH. THUNDERSTORM EVENTS IN THE PAST
FOLLOWING EXCESSIVE HEAT HAVE LEAD TO DAMAGING WIND EVENTS WHICH
IS CERTAINLY EVIDENT IN THE CIPS ANALOGS.
WE WILL FINALLY BE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
ACROSS FAR WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MN AND ITS
EVOLUTION. MODELS ARE INSISTING THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE REGENERATING TOWARD DAWN ACROSS CENTRAL
MN. NOT ENTIRELY BUYING INTO THIS SCENARIO YET AND LEFT ALL TAF
SITES DRY FOR NOW THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE A POP UP STORM OR
TWO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS VERY MEAGER AND
FORCING IS WEAK. THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY
THROUGH THE PERIOD UNLESS A ROGUE STORM HAPPENS TO POP UP
OVERHEAD.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. SOUTH WIND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
MON...VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15
KT BECOMING WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ060>063-068>070.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1230 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
UPDATED TO REFINE TIMING OF LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST
ACFROSS NW WI. LATEST HRRR SHOWS LINE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND
BROKEN IN NATURE. THE HRRR DOES SHOW LINE BECOMING MORE DEFINED
AROUND 12Z NEAR DLH AND MOVING ACROSS THE TWIN PORTS 13-14Z AND NW
WI 14Z-18Z. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
UPDATED TO TAKE OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WORDING AND ADJUSTED CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPS A LITTLE. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NE ND
TO SOUTH CENTRAL ND HAS FORMED IN THE LAST HOUR AND MOVING EAST.
THEY WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY BUT MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AS MODELS INDICATE.
REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING A SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO NE MINNESOTA TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
CONCERNING TIMING...BUT NOT IN COVERAGE. I LEANED ON A MODEL BLEND
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. THE HIGHEST CHANCES SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE OVER NW
WISCONSIN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AS WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
A SW FLOW AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE/H85 TROUGH IN THE DAKOTAS...WILL
BRING INCREASING WARMTH AND INSTABILITY TO THE REGION SUNDAY.
HAVE KEPT SMALL BROADBRUSH POPS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
HIGH INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE STRONG MID LEVEL WAA IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE CAP AND LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
THE BORDERLAND/BWCAW REGION.
FOCUS TURNS TO STRETCH OF HOT AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES. LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE SHOWN GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THAT H85 TEMPS IN
EXCESS OF 20 C SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY/MONDAY...LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS DURING THIS TIME WILL WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING BACK
TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY SETTLES INTO THE
NORTHLAND.
THE LATEST ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A VORT
MAX...WITH DEEPENING H85 LOW...ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN THE WRN CONUS/ROCKIES AND TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
DURING THE TUESDAY INTO TIME FRAME. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND TIMING IS LIKELY TO CHANGE...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR INL TO PKD AT
05Z. THIS LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. THE BRD/INL AIRPORTS WILL BE AFFECTED
06Z-09Z...HIB 09Z-11Z...DLH 12Z-14Z...AND HYR LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. MVFR CIGS WITH THE STORMS MAY OCCUR AT THE AFFECTED
SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE
HIB/DLH/HYR AIRPORTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 60 81 65 84 / 20 20 40 10
INL 62 85 67 87 / 10 30 50 30
BRD 64 85 69 89 / 10 20 30 10
HYR 64 83 67 87 / 50 10 30 10
ASX 62 85 66 86 / 40 10 30 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...CLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
REGION REMAINS IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA COULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND
COULD BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ACROSS KNOX/CEDAR COUNTIES. ALL
MODELS SUGGEST THIS...EXCEPT MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH
REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY THAN
YESTERDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FOR TONIGHT...GFS AND SREF SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA ABOVE A
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL CAP AS H70 TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM TO +12
TO +13. NAM AND EC REMAIN DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS
COVERED...AND WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY. IF ANYTHING
INDEED DEVELOPS...IT COULD LINGER IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 70S. WELCOME BACK TO
OUR TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. HEAT INDEX VALUES INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 98 TO 102 RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND SREF HINT
AT SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS IS
OVERDONE WITH RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH H70 TEMPS INCREASING EVEN
FURTHER TO +13 TO +15...THUS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
MODELS ALSO HINT AT NIGHTTIME CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
UNSURE OF THIS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EC MODEL...HPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS DRY. GIVEN
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER...WILL FOLLOW SUIT.
MONDAY BECOMES DOWNRIGHT HOT AS TEMPS INCREASE TO 95 TO 100.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO BECOME QUITE OPPRESSIVE REACHING THE MID
70S IN SOME AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100
TO 108 ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A HEAT
ADVISORY BEING ISSUED AT SOME POINT. NAM AND SREF ARE INDICATING
CONVECTION THIS DAY...BUT AGAIN HAVE DOUBTS AS A VERY HEALTHY CAP
REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
TEMPS REMAIN RATHER WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WAVE COULD STILL BE MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL MAINTAIN. THE FRONT DOES MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPS AGAIN REACH THE
MID 90S WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY. THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER DAY OF
HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 108...WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE
CONTINUATION OR A NEW ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY. WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WHICH LINGER ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND CERTAINLY A LITTLE LESS HUMID AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. RIDGE REBUILDS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND COULD
SEE SOME RIDGE RIDER WAVES AFFECT PARTS OF OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SPOTTY STORM CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH 20/06Z AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES FROM LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO GREAT
LAKES REGION. PATCHES OF STRATO CUMULUS WILL MOVE ACROSS MOSTLY
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TONIGHT BUT ANY CEILINGS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE
FLO040. THE THREAT OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OR MOVING ACROSS TAF
SITES SATURDAY MORNING SEEMED PRETTY LOW AND THUS NO MENTION WAS
MADE IN 06Z FORECAST.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
513 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN OHIO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....BEFORE THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. ARRIVES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK 500 MB LOW /578 DAM/ LOCATED NEAR KTOL EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT TO THE NE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH AT THAT P-LEVEL...
EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WILL ADD SOME
SUBTLE LIFT TO PRODUCE EXTENSIVE ALTOCU/ALTOSTRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH SOME PERIODS OF LOWER/PRECIPITATING NS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.
EMPLOYED A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR AND 13KM RAP TO FINE TUNE THE
NERN EDGE OF THE GENERALLY VERY LIGHT QPF.
RAINFALL THROUGH 14Z WILL BE IN THE FORM OF NON-MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES ALONG AND TO THE NE OF ROUTE 322 FROM HARRISBURG TO
STATE COLLEGE...BUT SHOULD AMOUNT TO ANOTHER SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH FURTHER TO THE WEST.
FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE A DISTINCT...SPLIT PERSONALITY WITH RESPECT TO THE CHC OF
RAIN. A HIGH PROBABILITY OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN
OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF A KMDT TO KIPT LINE. IN BETWEEN...
SPRINKLES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DAMPEN THE GROUND AT TIMES.
SHORT RANGE/HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FURTHEST NE PUSH OF
THE VERY LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH.
AFTERWARD...SHOWERS APPEAR THAT THEY/LL BECOME LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES IN WESTERN PENN...WHERE THE
ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY 850 MB WIND...SSERLY NEAR SFC FLOW...HIGHER
PWAT AIR...AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
FOUND.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS AFTER 12Z TODAY WILL VARY FROM AS MUCH AS
A FEW TENTHS OF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE WEST
OF ROUTE 219...TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 99/ROUTE 220 CORRIDOR.
PERSISTENT LLVL RIDGING/DIVERGENCE...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOWER
PWAT AIR ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE NE WILL KEEP
THAT PORTION OF OUR CWA MAINLY DRY TODAY WITH JUST SOME NON-
MEASURABLE SPRINKLES FALLING OUT OF THE MID CLOUD DECK FROM TIME
TO TIME. ACROSS OUR FAR ERN ZONES...SOME GLIMPSES OF DIM SUNSHINE
MAY EVEN FILTER THROUGH THE OTHERWISE OVC...MULTI-LAYER CLOUD
DECK.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND BETWEEN 60-65F ELSEWHERE. LOWS AROUND SUNRISE WILL BE
JUST A DEG F OR SO COOLER.
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR AND
TO THE WEST OF KBFD WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE THE MOST FREQUENT AND
LAST THE LONGEST TODAY. THE LAURELS WILL SE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S...WHILE FURTHER TO THE EAST...THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ
VALLEY SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PA...AND WEAK
LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWAT AIR AND COOLER MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
00Z GEFS AND 03Z SREF TREND LOWER WITH POPS FOR LIGHT /0.05 PER
06 HR/ QPF ON SUNDAY. THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND MARGINAL LLVL
MOISTURE/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
HOWEVER...KEPT CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCSTS AND SURROUNDING WFOS
TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC FOR A FEW LOW-TOPPED TSRA DOTTED AROUND
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THANKS TO
LOW-MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND BELOW NORMAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
FLUX.
LOW TEMPS EARLY SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 55-60F...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE WRN MTNS...AND
NEAR 80F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS
ZONAL WITH STRONGEST FLOW POSITIONED NORTH OF U.S. BORDER. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRIES TO CREEP BACK IN ON WEAK RETURN FLOW...BUT
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST OVER OHIO VALLEY. DID
KEEP MENTION OF ISO/SCT TSTMS SUN-WED MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST.
TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH INCREMENTAL WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON MONDAY.
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MID
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING WEAK WAVES TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS
TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE PARKED OFF THE SE COAST WILL DRAW
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
WILL PEAK WED-THU AHEAD OF A WAVE THAT DROPS INTO OHIO VALLEY
MIDWEEK...AND THEN SLIDES THROUGH ON A COOL FRONT LATE WEEK. DAILY
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WED...AND PEAK ON THU...BEFORE DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH/TN VLYS ATTM WILL LIFT
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS BROAD
AND WEAK TROUGH LEFT BEHIND IN ITS WAKE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A
SEMI-ORGANIZED AND RATHER CONTINUOUS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE TODAY...WHILE ERN TAFS
REMAIN DRY WITH OVC MID CLOUD DECK. COSPA/HRRR SHOWS THE EVOLUTION
OF THE PCPN REASONABLY WELL...FCST TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AIRFIELDS
ALONG/WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT -SHRA
ANTICIPATE CIGS AND VSBYS TO STAY OUT OF THE IFR CAT...OR AOA
MVFR.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY A.M FOG. WDLY SCT P.M. SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
300 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NWRN OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BY LATER TODAY. SLIGHTLY
RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY....BEFORE THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
ARRIVES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK 500 MB LOW /578 DAM/ LOCATED NEAR KTOL EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT TO THE NE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH AT THAT P-LEVEL...
EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WILL ADD SOME
SUBTLE LIFT TO PRODUCE EXTENSIVE ALTOCU/ALTOSTRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH SOME PERIODS OF LOWER/PRECIPITATING NS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.
EMPLOYED A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR AND 13KM RAP TO FINE TUNE THE
NERN EDGE OF THE GENERALLY VERY LIGHT QPF.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z WILL BARELY MEASURE ALONG AND TO THE
NE OF ROUTE 322 BETWEEN HARRISBURG AND STATE COLLEGE...BUT SHOULD
AMOUNTS TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND BETWEEN 60-65F ELSEWHERE. LOWS AROUND SUNRISE WILL BE
JUST A DEG F OR SO COOLER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED BY MDL DATA TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTH OF PA
ON SATURDAY. BEST LG SCALE FORCING...AS INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB
Q-VEC CONVERGENCE /ALONG WITH BLENDED HRRR AND RAP13 QPF/...IS
PROGGED BTWN 12Z- 18Z OVR THE W MTNS.
18Z GEFS 850 MFLUX ALSO SHOWING THE HIGHEST VALUES LIFTING ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES BTWN 12Z-18Z. AFTER 18Z...LL JET AND BEST FORCING
ARE PROGGED TO PASS NORTH OF THE STATE...SO HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS
DURING THE AFTN.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS AFTER 12Z TODAY WILL VARY FROM AS MUCH AS
A FEW TENTHS OF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE WEST
OF ROUTE 219...TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 99/ROUTE 220 CORRIDOR.
A FEW SHRA MAY EXTEND INTO THE RIDGE/VALLEY REGION...BUT BEST
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN OVER WESTERN PA AND THUS HIGHEST POPS
AND QPF PLACED OVER MY WESTERN ZONES. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
/WITH THE EXTENSIVE THICK CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS/ WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAXES TO
RANGE FROM ARND 70F OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO NR 80F OVR THE
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL WITH STRONGEST FLOW POSITIONED NORTH
OF U.S. BORDER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRIES TO CREEP BACK IN ON WEAK
RETURN FLOW...BUT DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST OVER
OHIO VALLEY. DID KEEP MENTION OF ISO/SCT TSTMS SUN-WED MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH INCREMENTAL
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY.
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MID
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING WEAK WAVES TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS
TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE PARKED OFF THE SE COAST WILL DRAW
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
WILL PEAK WED-THU AHEAD OF A WAVE THAT DROPS INTO OHIO VALLEY
MIDWEEK...AND THEN SLIDES THROUGH ON A COOL FRONT LATE WEEK. DAILY
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WED...AND PEAK ON THU...BEFORE DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH/TN VLYS ATTM WILL LIFT
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS BROAD
AND WEAK TROUGH LEFT BEHIND IN ITS WAKE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A
SEMI-ORGANIZED AND RATHER CONTINUOUS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE TODAY...WHILE ERN TAFS
REMAIN DRY WITH OVC MID CLOUD DECK. COSPA/HRRR SHOWS THE EVOLUTION
OF THE PCPN REASONABLY WELL...FCST TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AIRFIELDS
ALONG/WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT -SHRA
ANTICIPATE CIGS AND VSBYS TO STAY OUT OF THE IFR CAT...OR AOA
MVFR.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY A.M FOG. WDLY SCT P.M. SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
246 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NWRN OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BY LATER TODAY. SLIGHTLY
RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY....BEFORE THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
ARRIVES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK 500 MB LOW /578 DAM/ LOCATED NEAR KTOL EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT TO THE NE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH AT THAT P-LEVEL...
EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WILL ADD SOME
SUBTLE LIFT TO PRODUCE EXTENSIVE ALTOCU/ALTOSTRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH SOME PERIODS OF LOWER/PRECIPITATING NS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.
EMPLOYED A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR AND 13KM RAP TO FINE TUNE THE
NERN EDGE OF THE GENERALLY VERY LIGHT QPF.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z WILL BARELY MEASURE ALONG AND TO THE
NE OF ROUTE 322 BETWEEN HARRISBURG AND STATE COLLEGE...BUT SHOULD
AMOUNTS TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND BETWEEN 60-65F ELSEWHERE. LOWS AROUND SUNRISE WILL BE
JUST A DEG F OR SO COOLER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED BY MDL DATA TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTH OF PA
ON SATURDAY. BEST LG SCALE FORCING...AS INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB
Q-VEC CONVERGENCE /ALONG WITH BLENDED HRRR AND RAP13 QPF/...IS
PROGGED BTWN 12Z- 18Z OVR THE W MTNS.
18Z GEFS 850 MFLUX ALSO SHOWING THE HIGHEST VALUES LIFTING ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES BTWN 12Z-18Z. AFTER 18Z...LL JET AND BEST FORCING
ARE PROGGED TO PASS NORTH OF THE STATE...SO HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS
DURING THE AFTN.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS AFTER 12Z TODAY WILL VARY FROM AS MUCH AS
A FEW TENTHS OF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE WEST
OF ROUTE 219...TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 99/ROUTE 220 CORRIDOR.
A FEW SHRA MAY EXTEND INTO THE RIDGE/VALLEY REGION...BUT BEST
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN OVER WESTERN PA AND THUS HIGHEST POPS
AND QPF PLACED OVER MY WESTERN ZONES. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
/WITH THE EXTENSIVE THICK CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS/ WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAXES TO
RANGE FROM ARND 70F OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO NR 80F OVR THE
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL WITH STRONGEST FLOW POSITIONED NORTH
OF U.S. BORDER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRIES TO CREEP BACK IN ON WEAK
RETURN FLOW...BUT DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST OVER
OHIO VALLEY. DID KEEP MENTION OF ISO/SCT TSTMS SUN-WED MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH INCREMENTAL
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY.
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MID
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING WEAK WAVES TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS
TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE PARKED OFF THE SE COAST WILL DRAW
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
WILL PEAK WED-THU AHEAD OF A WAVE THAT DROPS INTO OHIO VALLEY
MIDWEEK...AND THEN SLIDES THROUGH ON A COOL FRONT LATE WEEK. DAILY
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WED...AND PEAK ON THU...BEFORE DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FEW SHOWERS ON RADAR TO THE SW.
03Z TAFS SIMILAR TO 00Z SET.
WE ARE NOW IN WHAT IS NORMALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE
SUMMER. PATTERN IS MORE LIKE FALL AT TIMES. ANYWAY...STILL
LOOKS LIKE 00Z NGM SUPPORTS HIGHEST CHC OF SHOWERS ON SAT.
A WEAK UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BETWEEN
AN UPPER LVL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE OFF THE COAST. THUS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER NOW AND THEN.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AT JST...AND LATE
TONIGHT AT BFD. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT UNV AND AOO ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY VCSH AT THESE SITES.
LEFT SHOWERS OUT OF IPT...MDT...AND LNS.
STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SAT.
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR SUNDAY.
LESS CHC OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO WED. MORE CHANCE
OF FOG AND HZ BY THEN...AS DEWPOINTS COME UP SOME.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...MAINLY VFR. A.M FOG. WDLY SCT P.M. SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WHILE WEAK RIDGING WAS TAKING PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN WI ONTO ONTARIO. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS QUITE A BIT
OF CUMULUS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLER AIR RESIDING ALOFT. SO
FAR...NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES WERE NOTED ON RADAR AND PROBABLY
SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY WITH RAP BUFKIT SHOWING A FAIRLY GOOD CAP
RIGHT AROUND 700MB. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGED
FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS.
QUIET NIGHT ON TAP FOR THE AREA WITH SOME PASSING CUMULUS. LOOK FOR
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS 0-1KM MLCAPE BUILDS INTO THE 600-1200J/KG RANGE FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI AS THE WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. NOT
MUCH FOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AROUND TO GENERATE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDER
ACTIVITY. PLAN ON HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WI SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TAIL-END
OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIP ACROSS THAT AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH GETS DEFLECTED NORTHWEST
INTO NORTHERN MN. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES UP
ACROSS THAT AREA...WITH ARX FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY.
OTHERWISE...A BIT WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE AND DEW POINTS CREEPING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.
MODELS SHOWING GOOD CONSENSUS WITH 850-700MB WAA/ISENTROPIC
LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHRA/THUNDER CHANCES.
THE AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD CAP BUILDING IN THE 800-850MB
LAYER AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. THIS SHOULD SHUT DOWN
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. OTHERWISE...LOOKS WARMER AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE AND DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S. WITH THESE TEMPS/DEW POINTS...HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE IN
THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE
BEST FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90.
SOME LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK COOLER AS THE REGION BECOMES DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY ACROSS
THE WEST AS THE MODELS SHOW A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING
ON WHETHER ANY RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
TAF REGION. CHANCES ARE PRETTY SLIM AS THE DEEPER FORCING AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESIDE TO THE WEST...BUT SOME OF THE
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...MORE SO IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THESE SHOWERS/STORMS HITTING
RST...SO HAVE NOT ADDED TO THE TAF YET. OTHERWISE SOME GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
535 AM MST SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER
CONDITIONS AND A STEADY WARMING TREND. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE SUMMER ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER DESERTS EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH
THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ WHERE THE
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
STEERING FLOW HAS INCREASED TO 15 TO 25 KT AND IS GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX AND A SPRAWLING
RIDGE ACROSS AZ/NM. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AZ...IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING 50 KT
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED JET STREAK. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS MORNING IN AN ARC EXTENDING FROM YUMA TO PHOENIX AND THEN
BACK INTO SE AZ...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK BUT DISCERNIBLE
VORTICITY AND JET-FORCED ASCENT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE
SPRINKLE/SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST WHILE LIFTING NORTH AND
WESTWARD THIS MORNING. POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST WEIGHT ASSIGNED TO THE 03Z SREF. ALTHOUGH SOME
SPOTS IN THE PHOENIX AREA MAY SEE A BRIEF SHOWER EARLY THIS
MORNING...THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SE CA...INCLUDING JTNP...WHERE INSTABILITY...ASCENT
AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES WILL BE MAXIMIZED. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUDS/VIRGA/SPRINKLES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW AVERAGE.
A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE MONSOON
HIGH ACROSS NM AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST. A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH A STEADY
WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH INTENSIFIES TO OVER 600
DAM. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL DRIFT TO A POSITION JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS...RESULTING
IN A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FROM AT LEAST TUESDAY
ONWARD. DEBRIS CLOUDS AND PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND OUTFLOWS WILL
TEMPER THE HEAT SOMEWHAT...THOUGH WE MAY BE FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE
HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY
BE DORMANT UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. GFS SUGGESTS THAT A PV
DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE TO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
CONVECTION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA KBLH AND KIPL...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING BKN
CLOUD DECKS...CIGS AS LOW AS 10KFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST SOME CLEARING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...WITH SOUTHEAST CA
REMAINING LONGER WITH THICKER CLOUDS/LOWER CIGS FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS EXCEPT KBLH...WHERE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THOUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN MAINLY
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA. DURING THIS TIME AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS...WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY EACH DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS...THOUGH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTINESS IS
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH MID-WEEK
WITH LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS PEAKING IN THE 110-115 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION....MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/MEYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1000 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ADJACENT WATERS BY SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE, WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
AND PROGRESS OUT TO SEA DURING SUNDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO EARLY AND MID NEXT WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSSING
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER AIR FEATURE AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING A WEALTH OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY... THE
LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW SOME RADAR RETURNS OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DRY LAYER FROM 700-800 MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH
THAT SAID A FEW SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AND HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN THE UPDATED GRIDS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT WITH THIS
UPDATE BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER AND 13Z METARS. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY ERLY OR SERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
THE 00Z GFS AND EC MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT...BUT CONFID IN THIS IS LIMITED ATTM. WE WILL
JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS THAT WERE ALREADY IN THERE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE MILD ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH MID/UPPER 60S. UP NORTH...LOWS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL, PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND
AND TO START OFF THE NEW WEEK, BUT INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE
FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND
TSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. FOR SUNDAY, WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EDGING EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. WITH THIS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSING NEARBY TO OUR SOUTH, WE EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SHWRS INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY MIDDAY BEFORE THE WEAK LOW PULLS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE
OUR REGION MONDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MONDAY SHOULD BE HELD OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
INTO TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO CREEP UP AS HIGH
PRESSURE EDGES EAST AND OFFSHORE WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
OVER THE REGION AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON, AND WE
HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED TSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST NJ AND EASTERN PA.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST. FORECAST 850/925 MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS FORECAST
HEAT INDICES COULD REACH AROUND 100 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST. A SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE INSTABILITY AND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST, ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL LEE-SIDE TROUGH SETTING UP.
THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NOTICEABLY WARM AND MUGGY DAY, WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THURSDAY LOOKS TO
YIELD THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SCATTERED TSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT NEARING OUR REGION.
FROM THERE, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST AND OFFSHORE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME
FRIDAY, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THEN BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR FRIDAY. WE
TOOK A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY FOR FRIDAY WITH REGARDS
TO TEMPS, WINDS, AND DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND IT
SLOWLY WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK ERLY/SERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED. A SLOW LOWERING OF CIGS FROM 200-250 THIS MORNING TO
100-120 TONIGHT. A COUPLE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT NEAR THE SHORE
POSSIBLY AFFECTING KACY. CONFID IN THIS IS RATHER LOW AND WILL NOT
BE INCLUDED IN THE 06Z OR 12Z TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE,
THOUGH, THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SITES,
INCLUDING KMIV AND KACY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME
SUB-VFR IS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT TO EARLY AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG/HAZE
AND ALSO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE ON THE WATERS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA. NE WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST TODAY...THEN E TO
SE TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 3
FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT OVER DEL BAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. A FEW SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...BUT CHCS REMAIN RATHER LOW ATTM.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/MIKETTA/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ADJACENT WATERS BY SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE, WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
AND PROGRESS OUT TO SEA DURING SUNDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO EARLY AND MID NEXT WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSSING
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER AIR FEATURE AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING A WEALTH OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY... THE
LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW SOME RADAR RETURNS OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DRY LAYER FROM 700-800 MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH
THAT SAID A FEW SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AND HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN THE UPDATED GRIDS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT WITH THIS
UPDATE BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER AND 13Z METARS. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY ERLY OR SERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
THE 00Z GFS AND EC MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT...BUT CONFID IN THIS IS LIMITED ATTM. WE WILL
JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS THAT WERE ALREADY IN THERE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE MILD ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH MID/UPPER 60S. UP NORTH...LOWS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL, PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND
AND TO START OFF THE NEW WEEK, BUT INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE
FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND
TSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. FOR SUNDAY, WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EDGING EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. WITH THIS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSING NEARBY TO OUR SOUTH, WE EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SHWRS INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY MIDDAY BEFORE THE WEAK LOW PULLS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE
OUR REGION MONDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MONDAY SHOULD BE HELD OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
INTO TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO CREEP UP AS HIGH
PRESSURE EDGES EAST AND OFFSHORE WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
OVER THE REGION AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON, AND WE
HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED TSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST NJ AND EASTERN PA.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST. FORECAST 850/925 MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS FORECAST
HEAT INDICES COULD REACH AROUND 100 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST. A SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE INSTABILITY AND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST, ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL LEE-SIDE TROUGH SETTING UP.
THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NOTICEABLY WARM AND MUGGY DAY, WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THURSDAY LOOKS TO
YIELD THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SCATTERED TSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT NEARING OUR REGION.
FROM THERE, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST AND OFFSHORE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME
FRIDAY, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THEN BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR FRIDAY. WE
TOOK A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY FOR FRIDAY WITH REGARDS
TO TEMPS, WINDS, AND DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND IT
SLOWLY WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK ERLY/SERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED. A SLOW LOWERING OF CIGS FROM 200-250 THIS MORNING TO
100-120 TONIGHT. A COUPLE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT NEAR THE SHORE
POSSIBLY AFFECTING KACY. CONFID IN THIS IS RATHER LOW AND WILL NOT
BE INCLUDED IN THE 06Z OR 12Z TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE,
THOUGH, THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SITES,
INCLUDING KMIV AND KACY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME
SUB-VFR IS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT TO EARLY AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG/HAZE
AND ALSO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE ON THE WATERS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ERLY OR SERLY TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 3 FT
ON THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT OVER DEL BAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY
AND MOST OF TONIGHT. A FEW SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT
CHCS ARE RATHER LOW ATTM.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
746 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS ALONG THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER 24HRS AGO IS NOW JUST NE
OF LAKE WINNIPEG. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO
FAR NW MN AND THE ERN DAKOTAS. SLOW MOVING NARROW BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NCNTRL MN INTO ADJACENT
ONTARIO.
MAIN FCST CONCERN TODAY/TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AS
SHORTWAVE NE OF LAKE WINNIPEG LIFTS NE TO HUDSON BAY. BECAUSE
SHORTWAVE IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NE AND BECAUSE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS MOVING ACROSS ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...COLD
FRONT WILL BE DECAYING AS IT MOVES E TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES
TODAY/TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME AS TAIL OF SHORTWAVE AND DECAYING COLD FRONT APPROACH.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MID LEVEL CAP THAT PREVENTED CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING YESTERDAY WILL ERODE TODAY...AT LEAST OVER WRN UPPER
MI. SO...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TODAY OVER THE W.
GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF FRONT OVER THE LAST
24HRS AND SINCE MAIN FORCING IS LIFTING N OF THE AREA...NOTHING MORE
THAN SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS APPEAR WARRANTED THIS AFTN OVER THE W.
WITH MLCAPE ONLY INCREASING TO AROUND 500J/KG OR SO AND WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR UNDER 25KT...STRONG OR SVR TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. AS
TAIL OF SHORTWAVE AND WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT A NARROW BAND OF SCHC POPS EASTWARD INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI. AS FOR TEMPS...MIXING TO 850-800MB ON NAM/GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...
MOSTLY UPPER 70S TO LWR 80S...BUT LOCALLY WARMER IN THE S WIND
DOWNSLOPE AREAS AND COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SUN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EVEN AS A FEW MODELS SHOWED SOME MINOR
QPF OVER PARTS OF THE CWA ALONG A PASSING VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE. THINK
THAT SHORTWAVE FORCING WILL NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME
DRY AIR.
SUN NIGHT/MON WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AS
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 22C. MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT RESIDUAL
CONVECTION MAY DECAY AS IT MOVES E INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT AM UNCERTAIN ABOUT THIS OCCURRING. THINK THAT EVEN IF
DECAYING CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE CWA...ENOUGH CLEARING WILL OCCUR
FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI AND IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S OVER THE EAST HALF.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY FORM OVER THE DAKOTAS ON MON TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING E OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT.
ALONG WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. IT DOES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDUP OF
INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR ACROSS THE AREA AND A
40KT LLJ NOSING INTO THE CWA. GENERALLY...MODELS INDICATE OVER
2000J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX AND COLD FRONT...WITH
PLENTY OF SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 9C/KM. THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE A STOUT CAP OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...BUT IF A STRONG
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND/OR COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA THE
CAP COULD EASILY BE OVERCOME. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH...THERE IS A GOOD SHOT AT SEEING CONVECTION...AND THERE
IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER /LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY CONDITIONAL THREAT/.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A SFC HIGH SITS OVER THE CWA AND AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS WELL W OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
AN APPROACHING WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW
SHRA/TSRA INTO WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SHRA DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED
COVERAGE AND UNCERTAIN LOCATION OF SHRA DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON AS
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE E WHILE A SERIES OF LOW PRES
SYSTEMS/TROFS MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA. ONE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL
FINALLY CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUE BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N OR
NW. WINDS THRU THE FCST PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCNL PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
(15-25KT) AT THE HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY AFTER SOME PCPN OCCURS. UNTIL THEN...FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE
THE LAKE WHERE FLOW IS MORE CONVERGENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
555 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS THAT FORMED OVER THE DAKOTAS HAS ADVANCED
INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BUT IS NOW IN A
WEAKENING PHASE AS FORCING ALONG THE FRONT DIMINISHES AND
INSTABILITY WANES. UP UNTIL THE LAST SET OF RUNS...THE CAMS
INCLUDING HRRR AND HOPWRF HAVE INDICATED THIS ACTIVITY WILL RE-FIRE
LATER THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY MEAGER WITH
INSTABILITY DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES...AND THE FRONT ESSENTIALLY
WASHES OUT. THUS...KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING DUE TO ONGOING ACTIVITY BUT
REMOVED CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...INCLUDING TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASING DRAMATICALLY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 90 TO 95 ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MN ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN ON SUNDAY WITH MIDDLE 70S COMMON ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA ON MONDAY. SURFACE DEW POINT FORECASTS FROM BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW POCKETS OF 80 DEG DP/S. APPARENT TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS FOR MONDAY ARE FROM 100 TO 105 FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON
WEST TO THE SD BORDER AS WELL AS INTO CENTRAL MN. SOME AREAS OF
105 TO 110 ARE NOTED IN WEST CENTRAL MN. CONTEMPLATED ON ISSUING
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF THE MN CWA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE INDICES IN WEST CENTRAL
MN BUT COLLABORATION ISSUES AND THE DURATION OF THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT (ONLY ONE DAY) PUT A DAMPER ON THAT. HOWEVER...AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE TWIN CITIES METRO FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD WHERE RULES ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. AS IT
STANDS...THE METRO AREA MEETS EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH INDICES FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES. IN ADDITION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
SLOWING. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COMPLEX OF STORMS
PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IF THIS SCENARIO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD...THEN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD
LIKELY BE NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH THE DEW POINT NEAR 75. IN FACT...A
YEAR AGO AND A DAY...7/18/13...MSP HAD A HIGH OF 94 WITH A LOW OF
80 WITH HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS IN EFFECT. THIS ALSO RAISES A RED
FLAG ABOUT HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS THAT MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN ON TUESDAY AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY PEAK AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. AGAIN...BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE DEPENDENT ON
WHERE THE STORMS OCCUR. IN SUMMARY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WILL NEED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE TWIN CITIES ON MONDAY
WITH AT LEAST AN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MN.
NOW ABOUT THE STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS SETTING UP TO BE AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
EVENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED BY THE GFS TO REACH
2.5 INCHES AT 12Z ON TUESDAY JUST NORTH OF THE METRO. THIS WOULD
BE A MAX PW RECORD IF IT OCCURS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON
SHOWING A BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL MN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. THE GFS IS CATCHING ON AND HAS BEEN
MOVING ITS MAX RAINFALL AREA NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. IT
NOW HAS A 3 TO 5 INCH AREA EARLY TUESDAY CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 8 IN WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE WITH THE HIGH PW
FORECAST. THE AREAS DEPICTED ARE AT THE NOSE OF STRONG 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. AT 500 MB...THERE IS A CORE OF 50 KNOT WINDS
PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH. THUNDERSTORM EVENTS IN THE PAST
FOLLOWING EXCESSIVE HEAT HAVE LEAD TO DAMAGING WIND EVENTS WHICH
IS CERTAINLY EVIDENT IN THE CIPS ANALOGS.
WE WILL FINALLY BE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAD PUSHED INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA HAVE
DIMINISHED. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY DUE TO
LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY...SO CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL
TAF SITES. THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. SOUTH WIND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
MON...VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15
KT BECOMING WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ060>063-068>070.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
916 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...JUST TOUCHED A FEW GRIDS TO UPDATE
WINDS...SKY...AND POP FOR TODAY. REMOVED MENTION OF TRW FOR
NORTHEAST CORNER AS NOT A SINGLE MODEL SUPPORTS IT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE A LITTLE DRY AND A BIT BREEZY TODAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. HRRR SHOWS A SMIDGEN OF CAPE WITH THIS
TROUGH...BUT IT IS PRETTY THIN AND CAP WILL PROBABLY HOLD IN ANY
CASE AS DYNAMICAL FORCING ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK WITH A VAGUELY
DEFINED SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TROUGH PASSAGE. SMOKE HAZE
FROM DISTANT FIRES CONTINUES AND MAY ACTUALLY BE HOLDING THE
TEMPERATURES BACK A DEGREE OR TWO. MARTIN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
SHORTWAVES DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA DIG A TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST AND BUILD A RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING...WITH A LEE
TROF DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT EAST
TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN CANADA.
MOISTURE AND ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT
WILL GET WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO
THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH A LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION
COULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS TO LAKE WIND CRITERIA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. LEE TROF AGAIN
FORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA WITH RISING DEW POINTS OVER EASTERN
MONTANA. WITH ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF ENCOUNTERING
THE MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN EASTERN MONTANA...COULD BEGIN TO
DEVELOP CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. EBERT
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE HEAT DOME EXISTS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A RIDGE JUTTING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAKER BROAD RIDGE RUNS UP
THROUGH IDAHO INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA.
TROUGHS EXTEND THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA INTO MANITOBA... AND OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST UP NORTH INTO A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
TRAVEL OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED WITHIN THIS RIDGE BUT CHANCE FOR IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL AS
SURFACE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND EVAPORATE ANY RAIN BEFORE
IT OCCURS. MEANWHILE... THE CLOSED LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL STEP ON
SHORE.
WEDNESDAY... RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRANSVERSES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN MONTANA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DURING THIS DAY AS NORTHEAST MONTANA ENTERS THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING LOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S... UPPER 90S
TO 100S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI BREAKS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN EXITING
TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE AREA... THE BREAKDOWN OF
THIS RIDGE OVERNIGHT MAY NEED SOME WATCHING AS STORMS COULD
DEVELOP WITH LIMITED MOISTURE DUE TO HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE LIKELY BUT QPF TOTALS ARE VERY HARD TO
PIN DOWN UNTIL THIS EVENT SHOWS UP CLOSER TO NOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...CLOSED LOW WILL LIKELY TRANSVERSE
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN PULL DOWN SOME CANADIAN AIR BEHIND IT
WHICH WILL AGAIN SPIN UP MORE MILD AIR AND NORTHWEST TO ZONAL
FLOW. CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY. GAH
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. SMOKE PLUMES ORIGINATING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH
PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE UPSTREAM OF THE AREA AND MAY
RESULT IN PROVIDING A HAZY APPEARANCE TO THE SKY AT
TIMES...HOWEVER VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT 10 TO 20 KTS. MALIAWCO
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
636 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
REGION REMAINS IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA COULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND
COULD BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ACROSS KNOX/CEDAR COUNTIES. ALL
MODELS SUGGEST THIS...EXCEPT MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH
REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY THAN
YESTERDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FOR TONIGHT...GFS AND SREF SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA ABOVE A
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL CAP AS H70 TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM TO +12
TO +13. NAM AND EC REMAIN DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS
COVERED...AND WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY. IF ANYTHING
INDEED DEVELOPS...IT COULD LINGER IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 70S. WELCOME BACK TO
OUR TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. HEAT INDEX VALUES INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 98 TO 102 RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND SREF HINT
AT SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS IS
OVERDONE WITH RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH H70 TEMPS INCREASING EVEN
FURTHER TO +13 TO +15...THUS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
MODELS ALSO HINT AT NIGHTTIME CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
UNSURE OF THIS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EC MODEL...HPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS DRY. GIVEN
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER...WILL FOLLOW SUIT.
MONDAY BECOMES DOWNRIGHT HOT AS TEMPS INCREASE TO 95 TO 100.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO BECOME QUITE OPPRESSIVE REACHING THE MID
70S IN SOME AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100
TO 108 ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A HEAT
ADVISORY BEING ISSUED AT SOME POINT. NAM AND SREF ARE INDICATING
CONVECTION THIS DAY...BUT AGAIN HAVE DOUBTS AS A VERY HEALTHY CAP
REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
TEMPS REMAIN RATHER WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WAVE COULD STILL BE MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL MAINTAIN. THE FRONT DOES MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPS AGAIN REACH THE
MID 90S WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY. THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER DAY OF
HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 108...WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE
CONTINUATION OR A NEW ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY. WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WHICH LINGER ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND CERTAINLY A LITTLE LESS HUMID AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. RIDGE REBUILDS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND COULD
SEE SOME RIDGE RIDER WAVES AFFECT PARTS OF OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SPOTTY STORM CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
STRATUS HAS EXPANDED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA SINCE 06Z AND
WAS NEAR ALBION AT 11Z. MEANWHILE...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THESE WILL
BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS EARLY ON. WILL INCLUDE SOME MVFR
CIGS AT KOFK THIS MORNING...AND HAVE A PERIOD OF CIGS FL040 AT
KLNK AND KOFK THIS MORNING. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED...BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THROUGH THE MORNING. ALSO...SHOULD SEE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE DEBRIS FROM THE STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15KT SUSTAINED RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT. TONIGHT ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
ESPECIALLY AT KOFK.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1101 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
WEAK SLUGGISH FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
WOW...WHAT A YUCKY DAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER...MORE
REMINISCENT OF FALL. IN FACT MANY AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO SURPASS
THE 70 DEGREE MARK TODAY IN THE LOWLANDS. ALL TIME RECORD LOW
MAXES FOR MONTH OF JULY APPEAR SAFE AT ALL SITES...THOUGH NOT BY
MUCH.
LOW CRUD AMID -RA FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LATEST IR IMAGERY
SHOWS ANOTHER S/W TROF WITH EMBEDDED VORT MAX OVER C-E KY AS OF
15Z WHICH THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON. WILL ROLL WITH
NEAR ACE POPS FROM C TO E WV ZONES AND SW VA INTO AFTN
HRS...GRADUALLY SHIFTING PRECIP AXIS OFF TO THE E AND NE AS ENERGY
PIVOTS THRU. DRIEST AREAS WILL BE ALONG AND NW OF OH RIVER BUT
THEY WILL BE DEALING WITH LOW STRATUS. UNDERCUT HIGHS TODAY BASED
ON LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE BUT STILL MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX
DRIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BACK
EDGE OF THIS PRECIP NOW MAKING IT INTO SW CWA...AND SHOULD SEE
DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP COVERAGE THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE. ANOTHER
VORT MAX WILL LIFT THROUGH TODAY...WITH RENEWED POPS...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA. EXPECT A CLOUDY DAY...ALTHOUGH COULD
GET SOME BREAKS ACROSS SE OHIO...AND HAVE WARMEST AFTERNOON HIGHS
THERE. THIS COULD ALSO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...WITH NAM ADVERTISING UP TO AROUND
500J/KG CAPE. INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE LOW IN ACTUALLY GETTING ANYTHING. HAVE LIKELY POPS
WINDING DOWN IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
LOWS FOR TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID 60S IN
THE TRI-STATE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WEAK 500 MB TROF IN THE EAST GETS NUDGED TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS HEIGHTS TRY TO RISE IN THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY FOR TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...A WEAKENING STEERING AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW THROUGH PERIOD...WITH A WARMING TREND.
THE ONLY CONSTANT APPEARS TO BE A VERY WEAK SE FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS INTO OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
BOTH 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOWING MORE INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...WITH EL AROUND 35 THSD IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS. SO
REINTRODUCED SOME POPS IN THE WEST FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
CONVECTION FORMING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ON MONDAY LEFT THE CHANCE POPS OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...BUT
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STORM OR SHOWER COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO
THE WESTERN SLOPES LATE IN THE DAY.
HELD ONTO THE CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES...WITH SOME 90 DEG MAXIMUMS REAPPEARING IN THE WEST.
COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...BUT WITH
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THIS PATTERN...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
THICK FOG YET.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE WAS INCREASING THAT THE UPPER TROF MENTIONED IN TEXT
BELOW...WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH
LONG ABOUT THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
USED HPC/WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME TWEAKS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A
BREAK IN PCPN ACTIVITY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL PCPN ACTIVITY...WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE
RUNS LOW TO TARGET THE AREA WITH HIGHER POPS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY.
WENT WITH WPC TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIG/VIS DEPENDING ON THE SITE.
EXPECT AN UPTICK IN PRECIP COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING...AS VORT
MAX CURRENTLY DRIVING PRECIP IN TN MOVES INTO AREA. WITH SE WIND
EXPECT BKW TO GET LOCKED INTO LOW STRATUS WITH RAIN OR DRIZZLE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...IF WE WERE TO GET A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
WOULD EXPECT IT ALONG OR WEST OF OHIO RIVER WHERE BETTER DAYTIME
HEATING WILL OCCUR. DESPITE SOME FLOW...AND CLOUDS AROUND
TONIGHT...THINK WET GROUND WILL BE ENOUGH TO GIVE 2-4 MILE VIS IN
FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS ESPECIALLY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RA MAY VARY ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED CIGS/VSBY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M L M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
651 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN OHIO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....BEFORE THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. ARRIVES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK 500 MB LOW /578 DAM/ LOCATED NEAR KTOL EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT TO THE NE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH AT THAT P-LEVEL...
EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WILL ADD SOME
SUBTLE LIFT TO PRODUCE EXTENSIVE ALTOCU/ALTOSTRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH SOME PERIODS OF LOWER/PRECIPITATING NS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.
EMPLOYED A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR AND 13KM RAP TO FINE TUNE THE
NERN EDGE OF THE GENERALLY VERY LIGHT QPF.
RAINFALL THROUGH 14Z WILL BE IN THE FORM OF NON-MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES ALONG AND TO THE NE OF ROUTE 322 FROM HARRISBURG TO
STATE COLLEGE...BUT SHOULD AMOUNT TO ANOTHER SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH FURTHER TO THE WEST.
FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE A DISTINCT...SPLIT PERSONALITY WITH RESPECT TO THE CHC OF
RAIN. A HIGH PROBABILITY OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN
OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF A KMDT TO KIPT LINE. IN BETWEEN...
SPRINKLES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DAMPEN THE GROUND AT TIMES.
SHORT RANGE/HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FURTHEST NE PUSH OF
THE VERY LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH.
AFTERWARD...SHOWERS APPEAR THAT THEY/LL BECOME LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES IN WESTERN PENN...WHERE THE
ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY 850 MB WIND...SSERLY NEAR SFC FLOW...HIGHER
PWAT AIR...AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
FOUND.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS AFTER 12Z TODAY WILL VARY FROM AS MUCH AS
A FEW TENTHS OF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE WEST
OF ROUTE 219...TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 99/ROUTE 220 CORRIDOR.
PERSISTENT LLVL RIDGING/DIVERGENCE...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOWER
PWAT AIR ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE NE WILL KEEP
THAT PORTION OF OUR CWA MAINLY DRY TODAY WITH JUST SOME NON-
MEASURABLE SPRINKLES FALLING OUT OF THE MID CLOUD DECK FROM TIME
TO TIME. ACROSS OUR FAR ERN ZONES...SOME GLIMPSES OF DIM SUNSHINE
MAY EVEN FILTER THROUGH THE OTHERWISE OVC...MULTI-LAYER CLOUD
DECK.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND BETWEEN 60-65F ELSEWHERE. LOWS AROUND SUNRISE WILL BE
JUST A DEG F OR SO COOLER.
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR AND
TO THE WEST OF KBFD WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE THE MOST FREQUENT AND
LAST THE LONGEST TODAY. THE LAURELS WILL SE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S...WHILE FURTHER TO THE EAST...THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ
VALLEY SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PA...AND WEAK
LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWAT AIR AND COOLER MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
00Z GEFS AND 03Z SREF TREND LOWER WITH POPS FOR LIGHT /0.05 PER
06 HR/ QPF ON SUNDAY. THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND MARGINAL LLVL
MOISTURE/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
HOWEVER...KEPT CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCSTS AND SURROUNDING WFOS
TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC FOR A FEW LOW-TOPPED TSRA DOTTED AROUND
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THANKS TO
LOW-MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND BELOW NORMAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
FLUX.
LOW TEMPS EARLY SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 55-60F...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE WRN MTNS...AND
NEAR 80F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS
ZONAL WITH STRONGEST FLOW POSITIONED NORTH OF U.S. BORDER. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRIES TO CREEP BACK IN ON WEAK RETURN FLOW...BUT
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST OVER OHIO VALLEY. DID
KEEP MENTION OF ISO/SCT TSTMS SUN-WED MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST.
TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH INCREMENTAL WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON MONDAY.
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MID
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING WEAK WAVES TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS
TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE PARKED OFF THE SE COAST WILL DRAW
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
WILL PEAK WED-THU AHEAD OF A WAVE THAT DROPS INTO OHIO VALLEY
MIDWEEK...AND THEN SLIDES THROUGH ON A COOL FRONT LATE WEEK. DAILY
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WED...AND PEAK ON THU...BEFORE DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH VLY THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES BY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
BROAD AND WEAK TROUGH LEFT BEHIND IN ITS WAKE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE WRN
1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE TODAY...WHILE ERN TAFS STAY MAINLY DRY
UNDER AN OVC MID CLOUD DECK. COSPA/HRRR SHOWS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PCPN REASONABLY WELL...WITH THE STEADIEST -RA FCST TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO AIRFIELDS ALONG/WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. DESPITE
THE PERSISTENT -RA..ANTICIPATE CIGS AND VSBYS TO STAY OUT OF THE
IFR CAT...BASICALLY MVFR OR BETTER.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY A.M FOG. WDLY SCT P.M. SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
941 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT EAST WHILE A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY CONTINUES TO BRING
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TODAY. MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARM HUMID CONDITIONS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KFCX 88D LOOP SHOWED RAIN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING. THIS MORNING RNK 12Z/8AM SOUNDING INDICATED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB AND PWAT AT 1.34 INCHES.
OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST NOSING DOWN THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC
REGION. LEANED POPS TOWARDS RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR FOR THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FURTHER EAST EXTENT OF THE RAIN
COVERAGE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND LOWERED HIGHS IN THE WEST WITH
CLOUDS AND RAIN. MORE CHANGES LATER...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...
PATTERN FEATURING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT SOME OVERRUNNING RAINFALL TO THE CWA IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAINFALL REMAINING TO
OUR SOUTH AND ALSO NORTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO DRAW IN SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION KEEPING OUR PIEDMONT AREAS MOSTLY DRY. QPF IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS NOT ACTUALLY VERY DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST 24
HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINING BACK OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY IN NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST AND CHANCE POPS FOR THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FAR EAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPERATURES AGAIN...UP TO 10F BELOW NORMAL MID-JULY HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CURRENT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION/WEAKEN
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A MAMMOTH 600DM RIDGE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND LARGELY CONTROL THE STEERING
CURRENTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...A DEFINITE AND PERISTENT
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN LEFT BEHIND FROM THE BASE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EVENTUALLY APPEARS TO
EVOLVE INTO A PSEUDO TROPICAL LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF WERE QUITE DISCREPANT ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS BUILDING THE FEATURE BACK
ACROSS GA AND THEN RETROGRADING WEST TOWARD AL/MS BEFORE SHEARING
OUT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEK. YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF BROUGHT THIS
FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD IN
ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LATE WEEK TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS. AS SUCH...IT
APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED
WEAK UPPER TROUGH...588 DM...PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...CENTERED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH THE
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING POOLED ACROSS THE GA/SC REGION.
AS SUCH...IT IS HARD TO FIND ANY SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ONE DAY VERSUS ANOTHER. PERHAPS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST TUE-WED...PUSHING THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE.
HOWEVER...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TRIGGERING SHRA/TSRA EACH AFTERNOON.
WITH RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION. BEST OPTION WAS TO CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS WITH A
DIURNAL CYCLE EACH DAY. THE REGION MOST LIKELY TO SEE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ACROSS NW NC CLOSEST TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LOW ACROSS GA/SC.
TEMPERATURES WILL EDGE SLOWLY UPWARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
WIDESPREAD 80S...APPROACHING 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY TUE...70S
TO NEAR 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MAMMOTH 600DM UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH EASTERN
U.S. EDGING TOWARD THE COAST. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ATOP THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS DRIVES A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND OUR REGION
BY THU. GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE
LATEST 00Z RUN IN PUSHING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION
THU...THEN S-SE OF THE AREA FRI. THIS NECESSITATED SOME CHANGES IN
THE EXTENDED POPS. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO YIELD WEDNESDAY BEING
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING +20C ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EXPECT LOW 90S IN THE PIEDMONT AND 80S ELSEWHERE. THU
SHOULD BRING THE BEST COVERAGE OF TSRA TO THE REGION...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG ALONG THE FRONT SYSTEM AND IN THE
HOT...UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRECEDING IT. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY AS
USUAL ON EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF THE FRONTAL CONVECTION.
FRI...SHOULD AT LEAST A DRIER AIR MASS SPREAD INTO THE REGION PER
LATEST MODEL TRENDS...PUSHING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAINLY
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SATURDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
MARGINAL AVIATION CONDITIONS AT TIMES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TN AND INTO OH VALLEY TODAY/TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD -RA THROUGH MIDDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE WITH LIMITED HEATING AFT 18Z. BULK OF -RA WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES
REACHING DAN/LYH THROUGH AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR
CIGS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH VFR CIGS CONTINUING EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST AND BRING -SHRA TO MUCH OF THE CWA...INCLUDING AREAS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH VFR VSBYS CONTINUING TO THE EAST. OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION MORE TO
-DZ OR SPOTTY -RA WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO ANY
TSRA THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. CIGS BECOMING IFR- LIFR IN
BR/DZ WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH MVFR VSBYS IN BR...BUT LIKELY
VFR CIGS CONTINUING TO THE EAST. WINDS GENERALLY SE THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD AT SPEEDS OF 5-7KTS...DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN
5KTS AFT 00Z.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND DIURNAL IN NATURE
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS IN
SHRA/TSRA AS WELL AS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG AND LOCALIZED IFR-LIFR VSBYS WHERE RAIN OCCURS THE
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PARTS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...MAINLY WATAUGA COUNTY...HAVE
PICKED UP OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING AND
COMPARABLE AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAME AREA AND POSSIBLY 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF VIRGINIA
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY THE
FURTHER EAST YOU GO...WHERE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST THAT CAN BE EXPECTED. OVERALL CERTAINLY
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NEW...UPPER ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST US
DROUGHT MONITOR (ISSUED JULY 17 2014) NOW SHOWS D0 OR ABNORMALLY
DRY CONDITIONS. 60-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PARTS OF THESE BASINS WITH POCKETS OF 6-INCH DEFICITS ALONG
THE VA-NC BORDER NEAR SURRY AND CARROLL AND PATRICK COUNTIES.
RIVERS AND STREAMFLOWS HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT THE PERSISTENTLY DRY
PATTERN WITH DAILY STREAMFLOW NOW LESS THAN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF
ALL FLOWS FOR THIS DATE AT SEVERAL USGS GAGING STATIONS AND
ACTUALLY EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER JAMES BASIN WHICH MAY BE A
CANDIDATE FOR THE EXPANSION OF THESE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
THE NEXT WEEKLY ISSUANCE OF THE DROUGHT MONITOR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...KK/PC
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PW/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PC/RAB
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
245 PM MST SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS UPDATED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND A STEADY WARMING TREND.
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER DESERTS EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY CENTERS EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL LEAD SHORTWAVE COINCIDENT WITH STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SEASONABLY ROBUST
MERIDIONAL JET HAS PROPAGATED TO NEAR KSAN...WHILE THE SECONDARY
TRAILING FEATURE WAS PUSHING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE LEADING VORTICITY MAX HAS BEEN ABLE TO TAP ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATE 600-400MB LAYER COMBINING WITH
FORCED ASCENT TO KEEP LINES OF SHOWERS PERCOLATING THROUGH PARTS OF
WRN ARIZONA/SERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...A SUBSTANTIAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
DRYSLOT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD WAVE...SUCH THAT
SUBSIDENCE WAS OVERWHELMING ANY INFLUENCE FROM THE SECONDARY WAVE.
WHILE A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY MATERIALIZE WITH THIS TRIALING
WAVE...THE BETTER PERFORMING RECENT HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE MONSOON
HIGH ACROSS NM AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST. SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A STEADY
WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS INTENSIFYING TO OVER 600 DAM. WITH
VERY LOW SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH RESPECT TO
HEIGHT CENTERS AND THERMAL PROFILES...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AND ISOLATED
STORMS REMAINING OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF FAR EASTERN ARIZONA (AND THE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH IN SONORA AND
CHIHUAHUA).
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND AND
SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...PORTENDING
ADDITIONAL WARMING AND THE HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE SUMMER THUS FAR.
ONE VERY CRITICAL CONCERN IS THE VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND OUTFLOWS WILL TEMPER THE HEAT
SOMEWHAT. IN PARTICULAR WITH LIGHT E/SE FLOW ALOFT...THE 12Z GFS
DEPICTS THICK ANVIL DEBRIS FROM NRN MEXICO SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY...AND HAVE CUT FORECAST HIGHS DESPITE MARKED INCREASES IN
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES. FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE HIGHEST
HEIGHTS ALOFT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE
HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND HAVE TAILORED THE FORECAST
TOWARDS THE WARMEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY BE DORMANT UNTIL AT LEAST
NEXT WEEKEND...RELEGATED TO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN GILA COUNTY
(THOUGH OUTFLOW WINDS AND BLOWING DUST EVENTS CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED).
SEVERAL GFS RUNS SUGGESTS THAT A PV DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE AROUND
THE RIDGE TO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR CONVECTION AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH THE ECMWF ONLY SOMEWHAT
SLOWER IN PUNCHING QUALITY MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA KBLH AND KIPL...
SCT TO BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS EVENING THOUGH
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND WILL BE PREVAIL THIS EVENING OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AT KBLH AND KIPL AND OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
KPHX AND KIWA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
DESERTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 115 DEGREES. AFTERNOON MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES DURING THIS TIME WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
TEENS...THOUGH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS. SOME
OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION....MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
200 PM MST SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND A STEADY WARMING TREND.
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER DESERTS EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY CENTERS EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL LEAD SHORTWAVE COINCIDENT WITH STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SEASONABLY ROBUST
MERIDIONAL JET HAS PROPAGATED TO NEAR KSAN...WHILE THE SECONDARY
TRAILING FEATURE WAS PUSHING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE LEADING VORTICITY MAX HAS BEEN ABLE TO TAP ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATE 600-400MB LAYER COMBINING WITH
FORCED ASCENT TO KEEP LINES OF SHOWERS PERCOLATING THROUGH PARTS OF
WRN ARIZONA/SERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...A SUBSTANTIAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
DRYSLOT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD WAVE...SUCH THAT
SUBSIDENCE WAS OVERWHELMING ANY INFLUENCE FROM THE SECONDARY WAVE.
WHILE A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY MATERIALIZE WITH THIS TRIALING
WAVE...THE BETTER PERFORMING RECENT HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE MONSOON
HIGH ACROSS NM AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST. SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A STEADY
WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS INTENSIFYING TO OVER 600 DAM. WITH
VERY LOW SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH RESPECT TO
HEIGHT CENTERS AND THERMAL PROFILES...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AND ISOLATED
STORMS REMAINING OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF FAR EASTERN ARIZONA (AND THE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH IN SONORA AND
CHIHUAHUA).
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND AND
SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...PORTENDING
ADDITIONAL WARMING AND THE HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE SUMMER THUS FAR.
ONE VERY CRITICAL CONCERN IS THE VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND OUTFLOWS WILL TEMPER THE HEAT
SOMEWHAT. IN PARTICULAR WITH LIGHT E/SE FLOW ALOFT...THE 12Z GFS
DEPICTS THICK ANVIL DEBRIS FROM NRN MEXICO SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY...AND HAVE CUT FORECAST HIGHS DESPITE MARKED INCREASES IN
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES. FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE HIGHEST
HEIGHTS ALOFT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE
HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND HAVE TAILORED THE FORECAST
TOWARDS THE WARMEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY BE DORMANT UNTIL AT LEAST
NEXT WEEKEND...RELEGATED TO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN GILA COUNTY
(THOUGH OUTFLOW WINDS AND BLOWING DUST EVENTS CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED).
SEVERAL GFS RUNS SUGGESTS THAT A PV DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE AROUND
THE RIDGE TO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR CONVECTION AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH THE ECMWF ONLY SOMEWHAT
SLOWER IN PUNCHING QUALITY MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA KBLH AND KIPL...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING BKN
CLOUD DECKS...CIGS AS LOW AS 10KFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST SOME CLEARING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...WITH SOUTHEAST CA
REMAINING LONGER WITH THICKER CLOUDS/LOWER CIGS FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS EXCEPT KBLH...WHERE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THOUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN MAINLY
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA. DURING THIS TIME AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS...WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY EACH DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS...THOUGH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTINESS IS
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH MID-WEEK
WITH LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS PEAKING IN THE 110-115 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION....MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/MEYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
910 AM MST SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY THROUGH FAR WESTERN
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
STEADY WARMING TREND. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER DESERTS
EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN RELEGATED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR THE CNTRL BAJA PENINSULA WAS
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHEAR NORTH WITH A VERY DISTINCT
VORTICITY CENTER NEAR KNYL. FORCED ASCENT AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE VORTICITY MAX HAS BEEN MORE THAN EFFICIENT TO
SPARK SCT SRHA/TSRA IN TWO ELONGATED ARMS OF LIFT STRETCHING THROUGH
WRN ARIZONA AND SERN CALIFORNIA. ESSENTIALLY NO FORECAST MODEL
CAPTURED THE BREADTH AND DURATION OF THE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...AND
ONLY RECENTLY HAS THE HRRR INITIALIZED WITH RADAR RETURNS SHOWN SOME
SORT OF ACCURATE DEPICTION. HAVE UPDATED POP/WX GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SOUTHERN MOST ARM OF ASCENT LIFTING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WRN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. ALSO MADE SOME RATHER SUBSTANTIAL
REVISIONS TO CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS MUTING FORECAST HIGHS OUT TO
THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD PARTIALLY INHIBIT FULL INSOLATION. DID
NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO POP/WX FORECASTS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
VORTICITY CENTER ALREADY CROSSING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...THERE
ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE AFTER THE ROUND OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/535 AM MST SAT JUL 19 2014/
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ WHERE THE
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
STEERING FLOW HAS INCREASED TO 15 TO 25 KT AND IS GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX AND A SPRAWLING
RIDGE ACROSS AZ/NM. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AZ...IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING 50 KT
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED JET STREAK. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS MORNING IN AN ARC EXTENDING FROM YUMA TO PHOENIX AND THEN
BACK INTO SE AZ...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK BUT DISCERNIBLE
VORTICITY AND JET-FORCED ASCENT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE
SPRINKLE/SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST WHILE LIFTING NORTH AND
WESTWARD THIS MORNING. POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST WEIGHT ASSIGNED TO THE 03Z SREF. ALTHOUGH SOME
SPOTS IN THE PHOENIX AREA MAY SEE A BRIEF SHOWER EARLY THIS
MORNING...THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SE CA...INCLUDING JTNP...WHERE INSTABILITY...ASCENT
AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES WILL BE MAXIMIZED. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUDS/VIRGA/SPRINKLES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW AVERAGE.
A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE MONSOON
HIGH ACROSS NM AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST. A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH A STEADY
WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH INTENSIFIES TO OVER 600
DAM. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL DRIFT TO A POSITION JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS...RESULTING
IN A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FROM AT LEAST TUESDAY
ONWARD. DEBRIS CLOUDS AND PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND OUTFLOWS WILL
TEMPER THE HEAT SOMEWHAT...THOUGH WE MAY BE FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE
HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY
BE DORMANT UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. GFS SUGGESTS THAT A PV
DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE TO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
CONVECTION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA KBLH AND KIPL...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING BKN
CLOUD DECKS...CIGS AS LOW AS 10KFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST SOME CLEARING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...WITH SOUTHEAST CA
REMAINING LONGER WITH THICKER CLOUDS/LOWER CIGS FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS EXCEPT KBLH...WHERE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THOUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN MAINLY
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA. DURING THIS TIME AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS...WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY EACH DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS...THOUGH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTINESS IS
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH MID-WEEK
WITH LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS PEAKING IN THE 110-115 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION....MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/MEYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
330 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
MEET MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF
NW CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL AGAIN LANGUISH IN
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST AGAIN THIS EVENING AS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
IN COASTAL AREAS. INTERIOR LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS IN THE EARLY EVENING.
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW ON SUNDAY MAY DIP ENOUGH
ENERGY INTO NW CAL TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE A COUPLE WILD CARDS IN THE FORECAST.
FIRST IS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SOUTHWEST HIGH. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THIS REGION, BUT WHERE IT ENTERS NOR CAL REMAINS
SOMEWHAT SUSPECT. THE SECOND WILD CARD IS A SMALL WEAK AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CAL. THIS LOW COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH GUIDANCE FOR THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO HEAD INTO
NW CAL. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST, BUT STILL HELD
ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
CONVECTION WILL NEED THE LIFT OF THE MOUNTAINS TO GET ABOVE A
STUBBORN 700MB CAP. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP STEERING WINDS WILL
BE SO WEAK THAT THE CELLS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH. WINDS AT
THE STORM TOPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 15 KTS AT BEST. SO SUNDAY
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE A PULSING EVENT WITH CELLS POPPING UP THEN
COLLAPSING THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING. AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING WITH THIS CONVECTION, BUT
STRIKES OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE POSSIBLE. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
DAY OF THE NEXT COUPLE FOR ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS OF NW CALIFORNIA.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO OVERDO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WHILE THE NAM SHOWS A MORE REALISTIC VIEW OF CONDITIONS. THE
NAM IS ALSO INITIALIZING BETTER THAN THE THE GFS. THE HRRR AND WRF
ARE ALSO LESS ROBUST ON CONVECTION THAN THE GFS. BY SUNDAY THE GFS
BRINGS A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIP AND CONVECTION OVER NW CAL IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST.
THE NAM IS MUCH LESS ROBUST ON THIS SOLUTION. KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY, BUT MAINTAINED THEM SOLELY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN TRINITY CO. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
DEVELOPMENT IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE KEPT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE.
THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TO THE AREA
BEGINNING SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED COOLING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND ACROSS NW CAL WED
INTO THU. THIS MAY BRING A SHOT OF A PASSING SHOWER BUT CONFIDENCE
IS SO LOW DUE TO THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE GFS THAT I OPTED TO
KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE. LATE IN THE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD AGAIN OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
BFG
&&
.AVIATION...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY DUE TO REDUCED
CEILINGS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DIMINISH AT KCEC AND KACV
LATER THIS EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TO IFR AND TEMPORARY
LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO INCREASING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG
COASTAL AREAS. LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
WEAKENS RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND ELEVATED SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT SUNDAY PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY PZZ475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
441 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE
OFFSHORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE COAST HAS MANAGED TO GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL LONG ISLAND DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR...WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOUT 15 DEG F.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD RIDE UP INTO ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT INTO
LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...KEPT ISOLD COVERAGE IN FOR THE
EVENING WITH KDIX/KDOX RADARS SHOWING ADDITIONAL ISOLD ACTIVITY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COASTS...ALSO HEADING NE.
LATER TONIGHT...ERN LONG ISLAND COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAINLY LATE TONIGHT...WORTH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POP.
LATEST HRRR IS TRENDING MORE AGGRESSIVELY WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...ALSO WITH POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC
LATE TONIGHT VIA LIFT OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK...SO LIGHT PRECIP COULD END UP BEING
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IS CURRENTLY FCST.
LOWS ARE A MAV/MET GUIDANCE BLEND...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65
FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING DUE
TO E-SE FLOW JUST OVER 10 KT AND INCOMING 2-3 FT SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NE STATES LIFTS UP INTO
EASTERN CANADA FOLLOWED BY HEIGHT RISES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
WEDGED IN ACROSS THE AREA. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FOR VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER ON SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUN WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...THE EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE LEVEL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS THAN MON MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
WEAK A SURFACE TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS COULD SET OFF A
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST...NORTHEAST
NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...ONLY THINKING SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR TUESDAY AS QPF LOOKS LIGHT.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGS IN A WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR MASS. BETTER CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY AS INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND LIFT LOOK
BETTER. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S BY
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HAS A COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE DIFFERENCE RIGHT NOW LIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF POSSIBLE LOWS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF HAS A LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...THAT TRACKS TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW
TOWARD CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AND THEN MERGES WITH A SECONDARY LOW THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE GFS SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AND AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THIS EVENING.
VFR.
ESE-SE WINDS 10KT OR LESS INTO THIS EVENING. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE
AT KGON WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS THRU 23Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN AFTN-TUE...VFR. LGT SFC WND. ISOLATED TSTM NW OF THE NY
METRO LATE TUE AFTN.
.WED...VFR. SCT OF AFTN TSTMS WEST OF KHVN-KISP.
.WED NGT...MVFR IN SCT (PERHAPS NUMEROUS) SHRA AND TSTMS.
.THU...SLOW COLD FROPA. MVFR IN SCT (PERHAPS NUMEROUS) SHRA/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT INCREASING E-NE FLOW COULD BUILD OCEAN SEAS OVER 5 FT
ON THE OUTER ERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT PER WAVEWATCH.
HOWEVER...WITH WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THINK COMBO OF 3-FT WIND
WAVES AND 2-3 FT SWELL WOULD RESULT IN COMBINED SEA NO HIGHER THAN
4 FT DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC/TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
356 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE
OFFSHORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE COAST HAS MANAGED TO GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL LONG ISLAND DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR...WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOUT 15 DEG F.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD RIDE UP INTO ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT INTO
LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...KEPT ISOLD COVERAGE IN FOR THE
EVENING WITH KDIX/KDOX RADARS SHOWING ADDITIONAL ISOLD ACTIVITY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COASTS...ALSO HEADING NE.
LATER TONIGHT...ERN LONG ISLAND COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAINLY LATE TONIGHT...WORTH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POP.
LATEST HRRR IS TRENDING MORE AGGRESSIVELY WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...ALSO WITH POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC
LATE TONIGHT VIA LIFT OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK...SO LIGHT PRECIP COULD END UP BEING
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IS CURRENTLY FCST.
LOWS ARE A MAV/MET GUIDANCE BLEND...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65
FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING DUE
TO E-SE FLOW JUST OVER 10 KT AND INCOMING 2-3 FT SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NE STATES LIFTS UP INTO
EASTERN CANADA FOLLOWED BY HEIGHT RISES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
WEDGED IN ACROSS THE AREA. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FOR VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER ON SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUN WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...THE EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE LEVEL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS THAN MON MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
WEAK A SURFACE TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS COULD SET OFF A
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST...NORTHEAST
NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...ONLY THINKING SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR TUESDAY AS QPF LOOKS LIGHT.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGS IN A WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR MASS. BETTER CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY AS INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND LIFT LOOK
BETTER. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S BY
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HAS A COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE DIFFERENCE RIGHT NOW LIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF POSSIBLE LOWS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF HAS A LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...THAT TRACKS TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW
TOWARD CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AND THEN MERGES WITH A SECONDARY LOW THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE GFS SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AND AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WITH A MID TO HIGH BROKEN/OVERCAST CIG THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO
THE REGION. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF
MONTAUK SUNDAY EVENING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR KISP AND KGON TO GET SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVERNIGHT FORM THE MID DECK OF CLOUDS.
LGT SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REMAINING SUCH ON
SUNDAY. WINDS AT KLGA MAY HOLD ON TO EAST NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN AFTN-TUE...VFR. LGT SFC WND. ISOLATED TSTM NW OF THE NY
METRO LATE TUE AFTN.
.WED...VFR. SCT OF AFTN TSTMS WEST OF KHVN-KISP.
.WED NGT...MVFR IN SCT (PERHAPS NUMEROUS) SHRA AND TSTMS.
.THU...SLOW COLD FROPA. MVFR IN SCT (PERHAPS NUMEROUS) SHRA/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT INCREASING E-NE FLOW COULD BUILD OCEAN SEAS OVER 5 FT
ON THE OUTER ERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT PER WAVEWATCH.
HOWEVER...WITH WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THINK COMBO OF 3-FT WIND
WAVES AND 2-3 FT SWELL WOULD RESULT IN COMBINED SEA NO HIGHER THAN
4 FT DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
350 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE
OFFSHORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE COAST HAS MANAGED TO GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL LONG ISLAND DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR...WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOUT 15 DEG F.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD RIDE UP INTO ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT INTO
LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...KEPT ISOLD COVERAGE IN FOR THE
EVENING WITH KDIX/KDOX RADARS SHOWING ADDITIONAL ISOLD ACTIVITY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COASTS...ALSO HEADING NE.
LATER TONIGHT...ERN LONG ISLAND COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAINLY LATE TONIGHT...WORTH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POP.
LATEST HRRR IS TRENDING MORE AGGRESSIVELY WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...ALSO WITH POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC
LATE TONIGHT VIA LIFT OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK...SO LIGHT PRECIP COULD END UP BEING
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IS CURRENTLY FCST.
LOWS ARE A MAV/MET GUIDANCE BLEND...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65
FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING DUE
TO E-SE FLOW JUST OVER 10 KT AND INCOMING 2-3 FT SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NE STATES LIFTS UP INTO
EASTERN CANADA FOLLOWED BY HEIGHT RISES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
WEDGED IN ACROSS THE AREA. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FOR VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER ON SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUN WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...THE EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE LEVEL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS THAN MON MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
WEAK A SURFACE TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS COULD SET OFF A
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST...NORTHEAST
NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...ONLY THINKING SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR TUESDAY AS QPF LOOKS LIGHT.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGS IN A WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR MASS. BETTER CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY AS INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND LIFT LOOK
BETTER. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S BY
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HAS A COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE DIFFERENCE RIGHT NOW LIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF POSSIBLE LOWS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF HAS A LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...THAT TRACKS TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW
TOWARD CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AND THEN MERGES WITH A SECONDARY LOW THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE GFS SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AND AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WITH A MID TO HIGH BROKEN/OVERCAST CIG THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC HIGH PRESS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO
THE REGION. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF
MONTAUK SUNDAY EVENING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LGT SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTN...BECOMING
LIGHT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REMAINING SUCH ON SUNDAY. WINDS AT
KLGA SHOULD BE LAST TO BECOME SE LATE THIS AFTN AND MAY HOLD ON TO
EAST NORTHEAST BEYOND TIME FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN AFTN-TUE...VFR. LGT SFC WND. ISOLATED TSTM NW OF THE NY
METRO LATE TUE AFTN.
.WED...VFR. SCT OF AFTN TSTMS WEST OF KHVN-KISP.
.WED NGT...MVFR IN SHRA AND SCT TSTMS.
.THU...SLOW COLD FROPA. MVFR IN SHRA/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT INCREASING E-NE FLOW COULD BUILD OCEAN SEAS OVER 5 FT
ON THE OUTER ERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT PER WAVEWATCH.
HOWEVER...WITH WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THINK COMBO OF 3-FT WIND
WAVES AND 2-3 FT SWELL WOULD RESULT IN COMBINED SEA NO HIGHER THAN
4 FT DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
349 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE
OFFSHORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE COAST HAS MANAGED TO GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL LONG ISLAND DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR...WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOUT 15 DEG F.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD RIDE UP INTO ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT INTO
LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...KEPT ISOLD COVERAGE IN FOR THE
EVENING WITH KDIX/KDOX RADARS SHOWING ADDITIONAL ISOLD ACTIVITY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COASTS...ALSO HEADING NE.
LATER TONIGHT...ERN LONG ISLAND COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAINLY LATE TONIGHT...WORTH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POP.
LATEST HRRR IS TRENDING MORE AGGRESSIVELY WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...ALSO WITH POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC
LATE TONIGHT VIA LIFT OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK...SO LIGHT PRECIP COULD END UP BEING
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IS CURRENTLY FCST.
LOWS ARE A MAV/MET GUIDANCE BLEND...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65
FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING DUE
TO E-SE FLOW JUST OVER 10 KT AND INCOMING 2-3 FT SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NE STATES LIFTS UP INTO
EASTERN CANADA FOLLOWED BY HEIGHT RISES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
WEDGED IN ACROSS THE AREA. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FOR VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER ON SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUN WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...THE EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
HIGHS BELOW SEASONABLE LEVEL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS THAN MON MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
WEAK A SURFACE TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS COULD SET OFF A
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST...NORTHEAST
NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...ONLY THINKING SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR TUESDAY AS QPF LOOKS LIGHT.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGS IN A WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR MASS. BETTER CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY AS INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND LIFT LOOK
BETTER. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S BY
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HAS A COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE DIFFERENCE RIGHT NOW LIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF POSSIBLE LOWS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF HAS A LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...THAT TRACKS TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW
TOWARD CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AND THEN MERGES WITH A SECONDARY LOW THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE GFS SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AND AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WITH A MID TO HIGH BROKEN/OVERCAST CIG THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO
THE REGION. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF
MONTAUK SUNDAY EVENING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR KISP AND KGON TO GET SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVERNIGHT FORM THE MID DECK OF CLOUDS.
LGT SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BECOMING
LIGHT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REMAINING SUCH ON SUNDAY. WINDS AT
KLGA MAY HOLD ON TO EAST NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN AFTN-TUE...VFR. LGT SFC WND. ISOLATED TSTM NW OF THE NY
METRO LATE TUE AFTN.
.WED...VFR. SCT OF AFTN TSTMS WEST OF KHVN-KISP.
.WED NGT...MVFR IN SCT (PERHAPS NUMEROUS) SHRA AND TSTMS.
.THU...SLOW COLD FROPA. MVFR IN SCT (PERHAPS NUMEROUS) SHRA/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT INCREASING E-NE FLOW COULD BUILD OCEAN SEAS OVER 5 FT
ON THE OUTER ERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT PER WAVEWATCH.
HOWEVER...WITH WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THINK COMBO OF 3-FT WIND
WAVES AND 2-3 FT SWELL WOULD RESULT IN COMBINED SEA NO HIGHER THAN
4 FT DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
416 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF NOVA SCOTIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND IT SHOULD LOSE ITS INFLUENCE
OVER OUR REGION. MEANWHILE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER OUR REGION FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OFFSHORE AND A SECONDARY SYSTEM OVER
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY CLOUDY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A DRY LAYER FROM 700-800 MB HAS PREVENTED A
LOT OF THE RADAR ECHOS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER SOME
SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE
NJ AND DE COASTLINES. WILL INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THOSE REGIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HRRR CONTINUES TO HINT
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THOSE REGIONS. FOR TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS ACCOUNTED FOR LATEST METAR OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION AS CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK TODAY.
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE AS WELL. THE HRRR ALSO HINTS AT
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO EASTERN PA AFTER 03Z, SO
WENT SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING AT 00Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
AWAY FROM THE COAST GIVEN THE REMAINDER OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE DRIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THERE WAS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. USING THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES AS REFERENCE WOULD
YIELD A HIGH OF 83 AT PHL TOMORROW WHILE THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 80. COMPONENTS OF THE MAV AND MET WERE
USED TO GET IN THIS RANGE. THE OVERALL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AS WELL. IN TERMS OF POPS AND CLOUD
COVER, SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY PASS THROUGH THE REGION BUT APPEAR
TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. AS A RESULT, MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED BUT HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN A GENERAL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY STABLE FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM BERKS COUNTY INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE
POCONOS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S ON MONDAY
AND IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS
THE SURFACE FLOW VEERS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TO THE SOUTH.
IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST
DAY OF THE NEW WEEK. A PIECE OF THE HOT AIR FROM THE GREAT PLAINS
IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD AFFECT OUR REGION AT
THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO RISE
AROUND 18C OR 19C. THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TO THEIR DRY ADIABATIC POTENTIAL. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREDICT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S.
IT NO LONGER LOOKS AS THOUGH WE WILL REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100 FROM THE URBAN CORRIDOR SOUTHEASTWARD. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S, SO THE MENTION
WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT.
WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, A BIT OF A CAP MAY
PREVENT THE ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD AT THAT TIME.
THE GUIDANCE IS COMING TOGETHER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND WITH THE BOUNDARY.
ALSO, WE ARE SEEING A TREND TOWARD CONSENSUS ON DRY AIR BUILDING
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TO THE MIDDLE 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
AN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AROUND 10 KT OVER THE TAF SITES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THEN AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH NEAR THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, THE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEED AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES JUST A BIT. THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY, BUT CEILING HEIGHTS
WON`T BE LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY CONCERN TO THE AVIATION
COMMUNITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME....AND PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT..BUT THE
CHANCE OF EITHER ONE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE
TAFS ATTM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACY WHICH MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE ACY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE.
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS
AROUND FOUR FEET ARE LIKELY TOMORROW ON THE OCEAN WITH AN EASTERLY
FLOW. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/MIKETTA
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF NOVA SCOTIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND IT SHOULD LOSE ITS INFLUENCE
OVER OUR REGION. MEANWHILE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER OUR REGION FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OFFSHORE AND A SECONDARY SYSTEM OVER
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY CLOUDY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A DRY LAYER FROM 700-800 MB HAS PREVENTED A
LOT OF THE RADAR ECHOS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER SOME
SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE
NJ AND DE COASTLINES. WILL INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THOSE REGIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HRRR CONTINUES TO HINT
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THOSE REGIONS. FOR TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS ACCOUNTED FOR LATEST METAR OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION AS CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK TODAY.
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HRRR ALSO HINTS AT ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO
EASTERN PA AFTER 03Z, SO WENT SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING AT 00Z FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST GIVEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE DRIER. THERE WAS GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. USING
THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES AS REFERENCE WOULD YIELD A HIGH OF 83 AT
PHL TOMORROW WHILE THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND
80. COMPONENTS OF THE MAV AND MET WERE USED TO GET IN THIS RANGE.
THE OVERALL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AS
WELL. IN TERMS OF POPS AND CLOUD COVER, SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY
PASS THROUGH THE REGION BUT APPEAR TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. AS A RESULT, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE STILL
EXPECTED BUT HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN A GENERAL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY STABLE FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM BERKS COUNTY INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE
POCONOS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S ON MONDAY
AND IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS
THE SURFACE FLOW VEERS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TO THE SOUTH.
IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST
DAY OF THE NEW WEEK. A PIECE OF THE HOT AIR FROM THE GREAT PLAINS
IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD AFFECT OUR REGION AT
THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO RISE
AROUND 18C OR 19C. THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TO THEIR DRY ADIABATIC POTENTIAL. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREDICT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S.
IT NO LONGER LOOKS AS THOUGH WE WILL REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100 FROM THE URBAN CORRIDOR SOUTHEASTWARD. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S, SO THE MENTION
WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT.
WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, A BIT OF A CAP MAY
PREVENT THE ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD AT THAT TIME.
THE GUIDANCE IS COMING TOGETHER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND WITH THE BOUNDARY.
ALSO, WE ARE SEEING A TREND TOWARD CONSENSUS ON DRY AIR BUILDING
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TO THE MIDDLE 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
AN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AROUND 10 KT OVER THE TAF SITES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THEN AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH NEAR THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, THE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEED AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES JUST A BIT. THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY, BUT CEILING HEIGHTS
WON`T BE LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY CONCERN TO THE AVIATION
COMMUNITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME....AND PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT..BUT THE
CHANCE OF EITHER ONE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE
TAFS ATTM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACY WHICH MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE ACY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE.
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS
AROUND FOUR FEET ARE LIKELY TOMORROW ON THE OCEAN WITH AN EASTERLY
FLOW. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/MIKETTA
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
230 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ADJACENT WATERS BY SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE, WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
AND PROGRESS OUT TO SEA DURING SUNDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO EARLY AND MID NEXT WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSSING
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER AIR FEATURE AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING A WEALTH OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY... THE
LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW SOME RADAR RETURNS OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DRY LAYER FROM 700-800 MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH
THAT SAID A FEW SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AND HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN THE UPDATED GRIDS. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT WITH THIS
UPDATE BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER AND 16Z METARS. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY ERLY OR SERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
THE 00Z GFS AND EC MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT...BUT CONFID IN THIS IS LIMITED ATTM. WE WILL
JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS THAT WERE ALREADY IN THERE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE MILD ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH MID/UPPER 60S. UP NORTH...LOWS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL, PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND
AND TO START OFF THE NEW WEEK, BUT INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE
FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND
TSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. FOR SUNDAY, WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EDGING EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. WITH THIS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSING NEARBY TO OUR SOUTH, WE EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SHWRS INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY MIDDAY BEFORE THE WEAK LOW PULLS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE
OUR REGION MONDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MONDAY SHOULD BE HELD OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
INTO TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO CREEP UP AS HIGH
PRESSURE EDGES EAST AND OFFSHORE WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
OVER THE REGION AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON, AND WE
HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED TSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST NJ AND EASTERN PA.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST. FORECAST 850/925 MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS FORECAST
HEAT INDICES COULD REACH AROUND 100 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST. A SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE INSTABILITY AND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST, ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL LEE-SIDE TROUGH SETTING UP.
THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NOTICEABLY WARM AND MUGGY DAY, WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THURSDAY LOOKS TO
YIELD THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SCATTERED TSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT NEARING OUR REGION.
FROM THERE, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST AND OFFSHORE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME
FRIDAY, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THEN BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR FRIDAY. WE
TOOK A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY FOR FRIDAY WITH REGARDS
TO TEMPS, WINDS, AND DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10 KT RANGE OVER THE TAF SITES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THEN AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH NEAR THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, THE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEED AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES JUST A BIT. THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY, BUT CEILING HEIGHTS
WON`T BE LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY CONCERN TO THE AVIATION
COMMUNITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME....AND PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT..BUT THE
CHANCE OF EITHER ONE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN
THE TAFS ATTM.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME
SUB-VFR IS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT TO EARLY AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG/HAZE
AND ALSO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE ON THE WATERS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA. NE WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST TODAY...THEN E TO
SE TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 3
FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT OVER DEL BAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. A FEW SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...BUT CHCS REMAIN RATHER LOW ATTM.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...GAINES/MIKETTA
MARINE...KLINE/MIKETTA/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1224 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ADJACENT WATERS BY SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE, WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
AND PROGRESS OUT TO SEA DURING SUNDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO EARLY AND MID NEXT WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSSING
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER AIR FEATURE AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING A WEALTH OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY... THE
LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW SOME RADAR RETURNS OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DRY LAYER FROM 700-800 MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH
THAT SAID A FEW SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AND HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN THE UPDATED GRIDS. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT WITH THIS
UPDATE BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER AND 16Z METARS. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY ERLY OR SERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
THE 00Z GFS AND EC MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT...BUT CONFID IN THIS IS LIMITED ATTM. WE WILL
JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS THAT WERE ALREADY IN THERE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE MILD ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH MID/UPPER 60S. UP NORTH...LOWS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL, PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND
AND TO START OFF THE NEW WEEK, BUT INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE
FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND
TSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. FOR SUNDAY, WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EDGING EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. WITH THIS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSING NEARBY TO OUR SOUTH, WE EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SHWRS INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY MIDDAY BEFORE THE WEAK LOW PULLS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE
OUR REGION MONDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MONDAY SHOULD BE HELD OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
INTO TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO CREEP UP AS HIGH
PRESSURE EDGES EAST AND OFFSHORE WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
OVER THE REGION AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON, AND WE
HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED TSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST NJ AND EASTERN PA.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST. FORECAST 850/925 MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS FORECAST
HEAT INDICES COULD REACH AROUND 100 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST. A SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE INSTABILITY AND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST, ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL LEE-SIDE TROUGH SETTING UP.
THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NOTICEABLY WARM AND MUGGY DAY, WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THURSDAY LOOKS TO
YIELD THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SCATTERED TSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT NEARING OUR REGION.
FROM THERE, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST AND OFFSHORE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME
FRIDAY, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THEN BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR FRIDAY. WE
TOOK A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY FOR FRIDAY WITH REGARDS
TO TEMPS, WINDS, AND DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND IT
SLOWLY WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK ERLY/SERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED. A SLOW LOWERING OF CIGS FROM 200-250 THIS MORNING TO
100-120 TONIGHT. A COUPLE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT NEAR THE SHORE
POSSIBLY AFFECTING KACY. CONFID IN THIS IS RATHER LOW AND WILL NOT
BE INCLUDED IN THE 06Z OR 12Z TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE,
THOUGH, THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SITES,
INCLUDING KMIV AND KACY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME
SUB-VFR IS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT TO EARLY AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG/HAZE
AND ALSO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE ON THE WATERS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA. NE WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST TODAY...THEN E TO
SE TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 3
FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT OVER DEL BAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. A FEW SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...BUT CHCS REMAIN RATHER LOW ATTM.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/MIKETTA/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
235 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
RESIDE OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS TIME.
A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WYOMING WILL MOVE INTO THE FA BY THIS
EVENING AND WILL INITIATE CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO. STEERING WIND AT 10 TO 15KTS WILL BRING THE STORMS
FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. CAPE VALUES FROM 1000
TO 2000J/KG WILL COMBINE WITH SHEAR OF 30KTS MAKING IT POSSIBLE FOR
A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO AN INCH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. THE HRRR FOCUS THE BEST CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST FA FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION VALUES RISE TO AROUND 100 BY 03Z SO WILL RESTRICT STORMS
TO THE EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. SOME FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
THERE. CAPE VALUES ARE EXTREMELY LOW WITH AROUND 200J/KG AND SHEAR
VALUES ARE 15 TO 20KTS SO DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD WARM UP MORE QUICKLY THAN TODAY WITH A LACK OF STRATUS
AROUND. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE UPPER 90S IN EASTERN
COLORADO WITH 100 DEGREES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA WITH UP TO 102 AT
HLC. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE FORECAST TO BE MET SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE EASTERN FA. PLAN TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THOSE ZONES.
(SEE DETAILS BELOW).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN WHILE DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.
FOR MONDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND
100 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 100-105 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY SUPPORTS HEAT INDICES
AROUND 105 FOR RED WILLOW...DECATUR...SHERIDAN...GRAHAM AND NORTON
COUNTIES FROM 20Z-00Z. ON TUESDAY LITTLE CHANGE FROM MONDAYS
TEMPERATURES...COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER OR LESS HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BEHIND A SFC TROUGH WHILE
SIMILAR READINGS TO MONDAY (100-105) EXPECTED EAST OF THE TROUGH. WE
DO REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ACROSS THE SAME COUNTIES AS
MONDAY BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TOMORROW. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN
FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 60S TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
WARMEST READINGS IN GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING AN AREA
OF 700-300MB MOISTURE AIDED BY UPPER JET MAX ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH AND INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ON TUESDAY FAVORABLE MOISTURE IS
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WITH SOUTHERN WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. PLENTY OF HEATING TO WORK
WITH THE MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE 700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 16C-18C RANGE.
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SOUTH A BIT TOWARD
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHILE ALSO DE-AMPLIFYING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO THE 90S WITH POSSIBLY A FEW 100S. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS WIND CONVERGENT LINE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY. LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS INTO THE CONVERGENT AREA AND
ELEVATED INHIBITION IS RATHER LOW. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RATHER
UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVER 3K J/KG CAPE ALONG WIND SHIFT
LINE FROM TRENTON TO HILL CITY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY ECMWF/GFS
SHOW A SLUG OF 700-300MB MOISTURE EMERGING OFF THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AT THE END OF THE DAY ROUNDING THE
RIDGE AXIS INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS UPPER JET DIVERGENT
SIGNATURE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH.
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND LIFT ARE TO OUR WEST. 700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO 17C-19C PRETTY MUCH CAPPING ANY POTENTIAL.
700-300MB MOISTURE AXIS TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY MOVES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS ATMOSPHERE LIKELY CAPPED
PREVENTING ANY DEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...ONCE AGAIN PLUME OF 700-300MB MOISTURE MOVES INTO
OR IS IN THE AREA AND WHEN COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING CREATE A
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KGLD IF A STORM MOVES OVERHEAD. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AT KMCK BUT BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SOME BRIEF
STRATUS/LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-
016.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-
016.
CO...NONE.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ081.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
201 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
RESIDE OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS TIME.
A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WYOMING WILL MOVE INTO THE FA BY THIS
EVENING AND WILL INITIATE CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO. STEERING WIND AT 10 TO 15KTS WILL BRING THE STORMS
FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. CAPE VALUES FROM 1000
TO 2000J/KG WILL COMBINE WITH SHEAR OF 30KTS MAKING IT POSSIBLE FOR
A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO AN INCH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. THE HRRR FOCUS THE BEST CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST FA FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION VALUES RISE TO AROUND 100 BY 03Z SO WILL RESTRICT STORMS
TO THE EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. SOME FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
THERE. CAPE VALUES ARE EXTREMELY LOW WITH AROUND 200J/KG AND SHEAR
VALUES ARE 15 TO 20KTS SO DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD WARM UP MORE QUICKLY THAN TODAY WITH A LACK OF STRATUS
AROUND. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE UPPER 90S IN EASTERN
COLORADO WITH 100 DEGREES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA WITH UP TO 102 AT
HLC. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE FORECAST TO BE MET SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE EASTERN FA. PLAN TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THOSE ZONES.
(SEE DETAILS BELOW).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EACH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH BUILDS NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE HOT...WARMING TO 10
DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT INDICES WILL BE 105 TO 110 BY
LATE AFTERNOON. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BOTH DAYS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 25.
SUNDAY THE DRY LINE OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. DURING THE AFTERNOON MID LEVEL LIFT INCREASES OVER
THE DRY LINE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. DIFFICULT TO
REALLY PIN DOWN WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE DUE TO
THE RATHER BROAD MID LEVEL LIFT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE DRY LINE BUT DUE TO THE RATHER
BROAD NATURE OF THE LIFT...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO MORE
THAN ISOLATED FOR THE STORM COVERAGE. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FROM DEVELOPING DUE TO SURFACE BASED CAPE OF
1500J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-30KTS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.
SUNDAY EVENING 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA OVER THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. POINT
SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY FROM PARCELS LIFTED FROM 800MB
OF 1800J/KG WITH 30J/KG OF CINH. MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAR NORTH THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE...SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WHERE THE ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IF IT DEVELOPS. IF
STORMS DO FIRE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TRAINING/SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE ELEVATED
STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...EXITING THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD OF THE DRY LINE SITUATED NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. MID LEVEL
LIFT DECLINES OVER THE DRY LINE AND BECOMES MORE BROAD IN NATURE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE RIDGE BUILDING
NORTHWARD. THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES IN FROM THE EAST.
THIS MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER MODELS
DISAGREE HOW FAR WEST THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE...SO WILL HAVE
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE DRY LINE. STORMS
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...AHEAD OF THE EXITING THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
TUES JULY 22 THRU FRI JULY 25...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HOT AS AN UPPER HIGH/RIDGE DOMINATES THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN FOR MUCH OF THIS PATTERN.
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE LEAD TO ABOUT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS IS WARMEST AND WETTEST DUE TO ITS PLACEMENT
OF THE UPPER HIGH NEXT WEEK...CONSISTENTLY PLACING THE 700MB LOW OVER
OR VERY CLOSE TO NORTHWEST KANSAS. ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH IS
DEVELOPING AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN
MOISTENING AND THUS INCREASING CAPE FOR STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
FIRE. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THIS FLOW IS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY AT
LOW LEVELS...INCREASING TEMPS. ECMWF AND GEM MEANWHILE KEEP THE
UPPER HIGH FARTHER WEST AND THE MID TO LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE
NORTH...AND THUS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE GFS.
OVERALL DO NOT FEEL VERY CONFIDENT ON PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE
LOOKS TO BE LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...BUT LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT MID-LEVELS THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
KEPT HIGHS AT MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF DUE TO CURRENT
MINOR DIFFERENCES. NOT RECORD SETTING HEAT AT ALL...BUT TRIPLE
DIGITS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY MOST DAYS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KGLD IF A STORM MOVES OVERHEAD. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AT KMCK BUT BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SOME BRIEF
STRATUS/LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-
016.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-
016.
CO...NONE.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ081.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JJM/JTL
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
131 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS ALONG THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER 24HRS AGO IS NOW JUST NE
OF LAKE WINNIPEG. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO
FAR NW MN AND THE ERN DAKOTAS. SLOW MOVING NARROW BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NCNTRL MN INTO ADJACENT
ONTARIO.
MAIN FCST CONCERN TODAY/TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AS
SHORTWAVE NE OF LAKE WINNIPEG LIFTS NE TO HUDSON BAY. BECAUSE
SHORTWAVE IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NE AND BECAUSE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS MOVING ACROSS ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...COLD
FRONT WILL BE DECAYING AS IT MOVES E TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES
TODAY/TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME AS TAIL OF SHORTWAVE AND DECAYING COLD FRONT APPROACH.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MID LEVEL CAP THAT PREVENTED CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING YESTERDAY WILL ERODE TODAY...AT LEAST OVER WRN UPPER
MI. SO...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TODAY OVER THE W.
GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF FRONT OVER THE LAST
24HRS AND SINCE MAIN FORCING IS LIFTING N OF THE AREA...NOTHING MORE
THAN SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS APPEAR WARRANTED THIS AFTN OVER THE W.
WITH MLCAPE ONLY INCREASING TO AROUND 500J/KG OR SO AND WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR UNDER 25KT...STRONG OR SVR TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. AS
TAIL OF SHORTWAVE AND WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT A NARROW BAND OF SCHC POPS EASTWARD INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI. AS FOR TEMPS...MIXING TO 850-800MB ON NAM/GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...
MOSTLY UPPER 70S TO LWR 80S...BUT LOCALLY WARMER IN THE S WIND
DOWNSLOPE AREAS AND COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SUN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EVEN AS A FEW MODELS SHOWED SOME MINOR
QPF OVER PARTS OF THE CWA ALONG A PASSING VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE. THINK
THAT SHORTWAVE FORCING WILL NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME
DRY AIR.
SUN NIGHT/MON WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AS
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 22C. MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT RESIDUAL
CONVECTION MAY DECAY AS IT MOVES E INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT AM UNCERTAIN ABOUT THIS OCCURRING. THINK THAT EVEN IF
DECAYING CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE CWA...ENOUGH CLEARING WILL OCCUR
FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI AND IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S OVER THE EAST HALF.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY FORM OVER THE DAKOTAS ON MON TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING E OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT.
ALONG WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. IT DOES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDUP OF
INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR ACROSS THE AREA AND A
40KT LLJ NOSING INTO THE CWA. GENERALLY...MODELS INDICATE OVER
2000J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX AND COLD FRONT...WITH
PLENTY OF SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 9C/KM. THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE A STOUT CAP OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...BUT IF A STRONG
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND/OR COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA THE
CAP COULD EASILY BE OVERCOME. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH...THERE IS A GOOD SHOT AT SEEING CONVECTION...AND THERE
IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER /LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY CONDITIONAL THREAT/.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A SFC HIGH SITS OVER THE CWA AND AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS WELL W OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
AN APPROACHING WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW
SHRA/TSRA INTO WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SHRA DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED
COVERAGE AND UNCERTAIN LOCATION OF SHRA DEVELOPMENT. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES TODAY...WITH
SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25 KT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON AS
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE E WHILE A SERIES OF LOW PRES
SYSTEMS/TROFS MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA. ONE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL
FINALLY CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUE BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N OR
NW. WINDS THRU THE FCST PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCNL PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
(15-25KT) AT THE HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY AFTER SOME PCPN OCCURS. UNTIL THEN...FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE
THE LAKE WHERE FLOW IS MORE CONVERGENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1255 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS THAT FORMED OVER THE DAKOTAS HAS
ADVANCED INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...BUT IS
NOW IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS FORCING ALONG THE FRONT DIMINISHES AND
INSTABILITY WANES. UP UNTIL THE LAST SET OF RUNS...THE CAMS
INCLUDING HRRR AND HOPWRF HAVE INDICATED THIS ACTIVITY WILL RE-
FIRE LATER THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY MEAGER WITH
INSTABILITY DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES...AND THE FRONT ESSENTIALLY
WASHES OUT. THUS...KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING DUE TO ONGOING ACTIVITY BUT
REMOVED CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...INCLUDING TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASING DRAMATICALLY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 90 TO 95 ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN ON SUNDAY WITH MIDDLE 70S COMMON ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA ON MONDAY. SURFACE DEW POINT FORECASTS FROM BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW POCKETS OF 80 DEG DP/S. APPARENT TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS FOR MONDAY ARE FROM 100 TO 105 FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON
WEST TO THE SD BORDER AS WELL AS INTO CENTRAL MN. SOME AREAS OF
105 TO 110 ARE NOTED IN WEST CENTRAL MN. CONTEMPLATED ON ISSUING
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF THE MN CWA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE INDICES IN WEST CENTRAL
MN BUT COLLABORATION ISSUES AND THE DURATION OF THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
(ONLY ONE DAY) PUT A DAMPER ON THAT. HOWEVER...AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE TWIN CITIES METRO FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
PERIOD WHERE RULES ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. AS IT STANDS...THE
METRO AREA MEETS EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH INDICES FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
IN ADDITION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWING. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COMPLEX OF STORMS PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL
MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
IF THIS SCENARIO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD...THEN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TWIN
CITIES AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD LIKELY BE NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH THE
DEW POINT NEAR 75. IN FACT...A YEAR AGO AND A DAY...7/18/13...MSP
HAD A HIGH OF 94 WITH A LOW OF 80 WITH HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS IN
EFFECT. THIS ALSO RAISES A RED FLAG ABOUT HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS
THAT MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN ON TUESDAY AS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY PEAK AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AGAIN...BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY ARE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE STORMS OCCUR. IN
SUMMARY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL NEED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING FOR THE TWIN CITIES ON MONDAY WITH AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN.
NOW ABOUT THE STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS SETTING UP TO BE AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
EVENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED BY THE GFS TO REACH
2.5 INCHES AT 12Z ON TUESDAY JUST NORTH OF THE METRO. THIS WOULD
BE A MAX PW RECORD IF IT OCCURS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON
SHOWING A BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL MN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. THE GFS IS CATCHING ON AND HAS BEEN
MOVING ITS MAX RAINFALL AREA NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. IT
NOW HAS A 3 TO 5 INCH AREA EARLY TUESDAY CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 8 IN WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE WITH THE HIGH PW
FORECAST. THE AREAS DEPICTED ARE AT THE NOSE OF STRONG 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. AT 500 MB...THERE IS A CORE OF 50 KNOT WINDS
PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH. THUNDERSTORM EVENTS IN THE PAST
FOLLOWING EXCESSIVE HEAT HAVE LEAD TO DAMAGING WIND EVENTS WHICH
IS CERTAINLY EVIDENT IN THE CIPS ANALOGS.
WE WILL FINALLY BE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VFR CONDS XPCTD AT ALL SITES THRU THE NEXT 24 HRS. A WEAK CDFNT
LINGERING IN NW MN WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF S-CENTRAL MN
INTO WRN WI THRU TMRW AFTN...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS...WITH SOME MIDLVL
CU MIXED IN FROM TIME TO TIME. PRECIP ECHOES ARE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN...AND THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THRU TMRW WITH
FORCING LACKING TO PRODUCE PRECIP. SW WINDS THRU THIS EVE WILL
BECOME SLY TNGT THRU TMRW...AND BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY AFTER
DAYBREAK TMRW.
KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. S WIND 10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR PSBL WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA. S WIND 5-15 KT BCMG W.
WED...VFR. N WIND 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ060>063-068>070.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
301 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL MODULATE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS AS IT MOVES EAST AND WEST ACROSS THE SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES ARE
ISOLATED AT BEST AND COLD FRONTS WILL BE WEAK PRESENTING MOSTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT AS WELL AS HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVING OVER THE RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE IDAHO INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASIDE FROM
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA CONVECTION...SKIES
OVER THE LOCAL AREA WERE MOSTLY SUNNY AS LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE
ENTIRE AREA STILL CAPPED.
FOR TONIGHT...IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS YET THIS AFTERNOON COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY TO SLIDE
EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR STORMS TO WORK WITH. THE CONCERN WITH HOW LONG
ANY ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE IS THAT THERE LOOKS TO BE A LACK IN
FORCING AS THERE ISN/T A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING BUT PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE TO
THE NORTH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA SO NOT EXPECTED MUCH FOR ENHANCED LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FORCING. ALSO...MOISTURE IS LACKING ACROSS THE
AREA SO THINKING THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
THE NAM AND THE RAP BOTH INDICATE A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT...BUT NEITHER PRODUCE ANY CONVECTION.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND AFTER BEING DRY THROUGH THE
EVENING...SHOWS SOME CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z.
BIAS WOULD BE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR LATE EVENING AND
BEYOND...HOWEVER MODELS DID POORLY WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SO...WITH THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL PUT AN ISOLATED MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST BRINGING WARMER AIR
ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT 700MB...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INCREASE TO 15-17C BY 00Z MONDAY WHEREAS RAOB DATA
FROM THIS MORNING /19.12Z/ SHOWED TEMPERATURES AT 700MB AT 10-12C.
WITH DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD HAVE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SO
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO WARM EFFICIENTLY. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
GIVES HIGHS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CONCERN WITH REACHING THESE LEVELS OF
HEAT WILL BE THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS ARE CONTINUING
TO KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S MOST AREAS WHICH WON/T HELP THE
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THOSE LEVELS. BUT...SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING
FULL MIXING WOULD BRING HIGHS TO 105 IN PLACES. THINK THIS IS TOO
HIGH AND WHEN LOOKING AT SREF PLUMES THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE BELOW THE CENTURY MARK. KEPT THE FORECAST VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS SO KEPT HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS FROM THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE A CONCERN AS
WELL...MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF A KIML TO KLBF TO KANW LINE. THESE
ARE THE LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN WHICH COULD ACTUALLY BRING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DOWN NEAR 15 PERCENT. HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF HEAT
ADVISORY DUE TO VALUES BEING RIGHT AT THE THRESHOLD OF 100 DEGREES
ALONG WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REACHING THESE VALUES.
AS MENTIONED SOME PLACES MAY SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROP NEAR 15
PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS.
DESPITE THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS...DON/T ANTICIPATE FIRE DANGER
GETTING TO A CRITICAL LEVEL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DRYLINE SURGE SUNDAY CONTINUES
MONDAY. A SLIGHT RETREAT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ACROSS SD MONDAY SHOULD MOVE IT BACK EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
AT THE SAME TIME...A SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE ACROSS SRN CA THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA MONDAY SETTING UP THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSTMS IN THE AFTN OR AT NIGHT
AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE WITH THE STORMS WILL BE
LIMITED AND OPERATE ABOVE 700 MB.
HEAT AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE MAY PRODUCE HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MONDAY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 WITH HIGHS 95 TO 100
AND HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEEPENS ACROSS THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA TUESDAY FOR HIGHS
90 TO 95. THE FRONT UNDERCUTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED AND DRY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BACKS IN AND
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH RETREATS WEST. THIS SHOULD SET UP A STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THIS ANCHORS THE LOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND DRAWS COOLER AIR
WEST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. IN TIME A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THE FCST AREA ALONG ABOUT FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTL
CANADA.
THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT THE SIGNAL THE
MODELS GIVE IS DRY OWING TO WARM AIR ALOFT EFFECTIVELY CAPPING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE KVTN TERMINAL
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED AND DON/T HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR EAST ANY STORMS WILL GO. THEREFORE HAVE NO
MENTION OF STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
SUNDAY MORNING AND APPROACH BOTH KVTN AND KLBF SITES BY 18Z. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. PRIOR TO
THIS WIND SHIFT...THE WINDS WILL STAY SOUTHERLY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
REGION REMAINS IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA COULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND
COULD BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ACROSS KNOX/CEDAR COUNTIES. ALL
MODELS SUGGEST THIS...EXCEPT MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH
REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY THAN
YESTERDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FOR TONIGHT...GFS AND SREF SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA ABOVE A
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL CAP AS H70 TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM TO +12
TO +13. NAM AND EC REMAIN DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS
COVERED...AND WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY. IF ANYTHING
INDEED DEVELOPS...IT COULD LINGER IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 70S. WELCOME BACK TO
OUR TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. HEAT INDEX VALUES INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 98 TO 102 RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND SREF HINT
AT SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS IS
OVERDONE WITH RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH H70 TEMPS INCREASING EVEN
FURTHER TO +13 TO +15...THUS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
MODELS ALSO HINT AT NIGHTTIME CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
UNSURE OF THIS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EC MODEL...HPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS DRY. GIVEN
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER...WILL FOLLOW SUIT.
MONDAY BECOMES DOWNRIGHT HOT AS TEMPS INCREASE TO 95 TO 100.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO BECOME QUITE OPPRESSIVE REACHING THE MID
70S IN SOME AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100
TO 108 ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A HEAT
ADVISORY BEING ISSUED AT SOME POINT. NAM AND SREF ARE INDICATING
CONVECTION THIS DAY...BUT AGAIN HAVE DOUBTS AS A VERY HEALTHY CAP
REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
TEMPS REMAIN RATHER WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WAVE COULD STILL BE MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL MAINTAIN. THE FRONT DOES MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPS AGAIN REACH THE
MID 90S WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY. THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER DAY OF
HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 108...WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE
CONTINUATION OR A NEW ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY. WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WHICH LINGER ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND CERTAINLY A LITTLE LESS HUMID AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. RIDGE REBUILDS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND COULD
SEE SOME RIDGE RIDER WAVES AFFECT PARTS OF OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SPOTTY STORM CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THE CENTER OF A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE
STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN
QUITE A WHILE. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
90S TO LOWER 100S. THE HEAT WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS A
SHOT OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED STORMS RETURN
TO THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE INTRODUCED BY GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR
AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS VERIFY THE FOCUS OF THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STEERING FLOW WILL GUIDE ACTIVITY INTO
THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SEVERE STORM
TO THE SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS WILL SERVE AS A SIGN OF THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY 20Z LAPS DATA. POTENTIAL FOR QUARTER HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS IS THERE WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION AS IT MOVES
EAST TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SO SOME CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IS ON TAP FOR THE ABQ METRO.
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHEARED UPPER WAVE OVER THE BAJA WITH A
DEEP TAP OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO
TOWARD SW NEW MEXICO. GFS/NAM THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FOCUSES THE BEST
INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM INTO MONDAY. THE H5 HIGH
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY MORE TO 596DM BY MONDAY SO COVERAGE WILL APPEAR
MORE SUPPRESSED COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND.
VERY HOT TEMPS ARE THEN IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE H5
HIGH BUILDS TO NEAR 600DM AND 700MB TEMPS APPROACH +21C. MANY AREAS
IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS WILL AVERAGE MID 90S TO LOW 100S...ESPECIALLY
FROM ABQ SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
LIMITED TO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. DESPITE FEWER STORMS STEERING FLOW
WILL BE VERY WEAK SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WHERE EVER A
STORM FIRES UP.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE CHANGING THEIR TUNE AGAIN ON WHERE THE
UPPER HIGH WILL MIGRATE TO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST SHOWS
THE HIGH STAYING MORE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER NM WITH ONLY SLIGHT
WOBBLES TO THE WEST. THIS STILL ALLOWS SOME BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS BUT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP ACTIVITY
COULD REMAIN LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FORMER EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS S CA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CIRCUMAMBULATE AN UPPER HIGH OVER NM TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEFORE EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY. THE MOIST NORTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP UNDER THE 500 MB
HIGH OVER NM WITH ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD WETTING STORM COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE ON MONDAY THE 500 MB HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE STATE...AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...CAUSING A DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER
CENTRAL AND NW AREAS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE 500 MB HIGH TRAVELS NORTHWARD OVER S CO ALLOWING BETTER
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS FROM THE S AND SE.
AN UPPER LOW PASSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NW US BORDER WITH
CANADA IS FORECAST TO DRAW THIS MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL...WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IN THE FORM
OF A MODEST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...HIGHS SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY IN MOST LOCATIONS
DAILY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. READINGS
SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD AS BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES BEGINNING TUESDAY
IN THE EAST...BUT NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY ELSEWHERE. HAINES INDICES OF 5
SHOULD BE COMMON EACH DAY ACROSS NORTHERN...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR VALUES OF 6 FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST AREAS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
44
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
IT WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT STORMS ANYWHERE TODAY...BUT KFMN AND
POINTS E OF KROW APPEAR TO HAVE THE SMALLEST CHANCES. WITH THE MID
LEVEL HIGH ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER KTCS CELLS SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY
E TODAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME MOVING N OVER THE SW MTS AND SE MOVING
STORMS E OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. PERTURBATIONS IN NW FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD FAVOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND NE AREAS FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY MAINLY E OF A
LINE FROM KROW TO KTCC. MVFR LOCATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THESE
TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KROW.
44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 65 96 66 97 / 5 10 10 5
DULCE........................... 51 90 55 91 / 10 20 20 10
CUBA............................ 58 89 58 90 / 10 30 10 20
GALLUP.......................... 57 91 58 92 / 10 20 10 5
EL MORRO........................ 54 83 55 84 / 20 30 10 20
GRANTS.......................... 54 90 55 91 / 10 20 10 20
QUEMADO......................... 56 84 57 85 / 20 30 10 20
GLENWOOD........................ 61 92 61 93 / 10 20 10 10
CHAMA........................... 49 83 50 85 / 20 30 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 87 63 87 / 20 30 20 20
PECOS........................... 58 84 61 86 / 20 40 20 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 81 56 83 / 20 30 20 30
RED RIVER....................... 49 75 51 76 / 20 40 20 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 44 79 44 80 / 20 40 20 40
TAOS............................ 54 87 56 88 / 20 30 20 20
MORA............................ 55 83 56 84 / 20 50 20 30
ESPANOLA........................ 61 92 63 92 / 10 30 10 10
SANTA FE........................ 62 87 63 87 / 20 40 10 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 94 62 93 / 20 30 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 94 69 94 / 20 30 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 96 70 96 / 20 30 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 97 66 97 / 10 20 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 98 68 98 / 20 20 10 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 98 65 97 / 10 20 10 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 98 69 98 / 20 20 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 70 100 71 100 / 10 20 10 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 91 64 92 / 20 30 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 63 93 64 94 / 20 30 10 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 59 90 59 90 / 20 30 20 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 89 62 89 / 20 50 20 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 66 91 65 92 / 20 40 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 69 93 70 92 / 10 40 10 20
RUIDOSO......................... 61 87 62 87 / 20 60 20 40
CAPULIN......................... 60 86 63 87 / 30 40 20 40
RATON........................... 60 89 62 91 / 30 40 20 30
SPRINGER........................ 61 91 63 93 / 30 40 20 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 87 59 89 / 30 50 20 30
CLAYTON......................... 64 92 65 96 / 30 20 20 30
ROY............................. 62 89 65 91 / 40 40 20 30
CONCHAS......................... 68 97 70 98 / 40 30 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 65 95 68 96 / 40 30 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 68 98 71 99 / 50 30 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 64 93 65 94 / 50 20 20 20
PORTALES........................ 66 97 68 98 / 50 20 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 67 97 70 97 / 40 30 20 20
ROSWELL......................... 69 100 71 99 / 10 20 20 20
PICACHO......................... 66 92 69 92 / 20 30 20 30
ELK............................. 64 86 66 86 / 20 40 20 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
126 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
WEAK SLUGGISH FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
WOW...WHAT A YUCKY DAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER...MORE
REMINISCENT OF FALL. IN FACT MANY AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO SURPASS
THE 70 DEGREE MARK TODAY IN THE LOWLANDS. ALL TIME RECORD LOW
MAXES FOR MONTH OF JULY APPEAR SAFE AT ALL SITES...THOUGH NOT BY
MUCH.
LOW CRUD AMID -RA FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LATEST IR IMAGERY
SHOWS ANOTHER S/W TROF WITH EMBEDDED VORT MAX OVER C-E KY AS OF
15Z WHICH THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON. WILL ROLL WITH
NEAR ACE POPS FROM C TO E WV ZONES AND SW VA INTO AFTN
HRS...GRADUALLY SHIFTING PRECIP AXIS OFF TO THE E AND NE AS ENERGY
PIVOTS THRU. DRIEST AREAS WILL BE ALONG AND NW OF OH RIVER BUT
THEY WILL BE DEALING WITH LOW STRATUS. UNDERCUT HIGHS TODAY BASED
ON LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE BUT STILL MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX
DRIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BACK
EDGE OF THIS PRECIP NOW MAKING IT INTO SW CWA...AND SHOULD SEE
DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP COVERAGE THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE. ANOTHER
VORT MAX WILL LIFT THROUGH TODAY...WITH RENEWED POPS...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA. EXPECT A CLOUDY DAY...ALTHOUGH COULD
GET SOME BREAKS ACROSS SE OHIO...AND HAVE WARMEST AFTERNOON HIGHS
THERE. THIS COULD ALSO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...WITH NAM ADVERTISING UP TO AROUND
500J/KG CAPE. INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE LOW IN ACTUALLY GETTING ANYTHING. HAVE LIKELY POPS
WINDING DOWN IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
LOWS FOR TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID 60S IN
THE TRI-STATE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL UNDER UPPER TROUGH WITH SOME 500 MB VORT IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND UPPER LOW...BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LACK OF
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PRECIP AT BAY.
TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL RANGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS FOR MINOR CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING...A MORE ROBUST FRONT ARRIVES
AS IT TRAILS OFF OF A RATHER DEEP SYNOPTIC LOW THAT SWINGS OFF OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A DECAYING
MCS...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. INSTABILITY IS GOOD IN
FRONT OF IT WITH SOME MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH NW FLOW AND A
DECENT VORT MAX. BULK SHEAR IN THE 30 KT RANGE LOOKS GOOD TOO.
ACCORDINGLY...BOOSTED POPS AND SPED UP TIMING A TAD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIG/VIS DEPENDING ON THE SITE.
EXPECT AN UPTICK IN PRECIP COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING...AS VORT
MAX CURRENTLY DRIVING PRECIP IN TN MOVES INTO AREA. WITH SE WIND
EXPECT BKW TO GET LOCKED INTO LOW STRATUS WITH RAIN OR DRIZZLE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...IF WE WERE TO GET A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
WOULD EXPECT IT ALONG OR WEST OF OHIO RIVER WHERE BETTER DAYTIME
HEATING WILL OCCUR. DESPITE SOME FLOW...AND CLOUDS AROUND
TONIGHT...THINK WET GROUND WILL BE ENOUGH TO GIVE 2-4 MILE VIS IN
FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS ESPECIALLY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RA MAY VARY ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED CIGS/VSBY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M L M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
442 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY...BUT A MOIST AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THAT MEANS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY NEXT WEEK FAVORING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRIMARY PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE I77 CORRIDOR ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPPER VORT
FORCING. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THIS REGION...WHILE
DECREASING POPS FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS MOST
RECENT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING CAMS INDICATE CONTINUED
LULL OF COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS NEAR THE I20
CORRIDOR...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW IN ANY PERSISTENT
TSTMS. OTHERWISE...TWEAKED QPF/TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT
LATEST RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS RESPECTIVELY. LEFT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COMPLICATED SYNOPTIC PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE
MODELS ARE DISAGREEING WITH THE DEGREE OF THE WEDGE BREAKDOWN THIS
EVENING AND THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE FLUX. THE HRRR HAS
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA GOING DRY BY 23Z THIS EVENING...WHILE THE OP
MODELS DEPICT A CONTINUED A QPF RESPONSE OVERNIGHT IN MOIST SE/LY
FLOW. DO BELIEVE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD WILL WANE THIS AFTERNOON AS
IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST RADAR COMP LOOP...HOWEVER VAD WINDS STILL
SHOW A MOIST ATL FETCH THRU 5 KFT. SO...WILL COUNT ON SCT/ISOL SHRA
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ATOP A WEAKENING WEDGE AND TERRAIN LIFT.
THINGS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN TOMORROW WRT COVERAGE AND CHARACTER OF
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. THE GFS AND NAM ARE DEVELOPING DEEP
CONVECTION AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE ERN ZONES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHIFTED WEDGE BNDRY AND DIFF HEATING...WHILE THE
CAM/S ARE INDICATING MTN UPSLOPE -SHRA WITH PERHAPS ISOL THUNDER
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THINK THE GENERAL IDEA OF A NE/WARD
DISPLACED WEDGE MAKES SENSE WITH THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTING EAST.
HOWEVER...ALSO THINK CLOUD COVER IN LLVL MOIST ATL FLOW WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH...ESP EARLY ON AND KEEP MOST LOCALES TOO STABLE FOR MUCH
MORE THAN ISOL THUNDER...PERHAPS SCT COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON NEAR
THE ERN WEDGE BNDRY. THE GFS/NAM ARE ALSO INDICATING A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SBCAPE...SO THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TSTMS. THE UNCERTAIN CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO MAKE THE MAX TEMP FCST DIFFICULT AS WELL. DO THINK
THERE WILL BE ENUF THINNING AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON TO
EXPECT A MODEST WARM UP HOWEVER...BUT WILL SIDE THE LOWER END
GUIDANCE LEAVING MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 210 PM EDT SAT...A WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE MIGRATING
TO THE COAST ON TUESDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE SOME NON DIURNAL FORCING IN THE SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT SFC TO 700 MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A SFC WAVE DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS NEAR THE STALLED
BOUNDARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL COMBINE WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH TO
REINFORCE EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITHIN AND ATOP
THE LINGERING CAD LAYER. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR RATHER SOLID PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEAR THE WEDGE BOUNDARY
IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL NOSE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE ALONG WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL LINGER TO
PROVIDE PLENTY OF CLOUDS...CONTINUED SMALLER THAN CLIMO DIURNAL
RANGES ON TEMPS...AND ABOVE CLIMO POPS INTO TUE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SATURDAY...AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD OF
12Z WED...BIG 500MB RIDGE OVER THE WEST CENTERED OVER COLORADO WITH
A LESS FOCUSED RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA. LATER IN THE DAY WED THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN HEATS UP AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPS SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE NC MTNS LATE THURSDAY FURTHER ENHANCING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THE MTNS. CAPE VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 2000 UP
TO 2500 NEAR THE TN BORDER JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AROUND 2000
ALONG AND SE OF I-85 IN THE EARLY EVENING THURS. EXPECT AT LEAST A
FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE UPPER PATTERN FOR SUPPORT OF PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT FAR SOUTH IS GREATEST ON THE GFS AS IT HAS THE FRONT TO NEAR
THE GA / FL BORDER FRI PM WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND STALLS OUT THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL
GA AND CENTRAL SC WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER AUGUSTA FRI
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MTNS WILL BE DRY OR NEAR
DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL A BIT QUESTIONABLE FOR THE
PIEDMONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE NC MTNS LATE IN
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED...NEAR CLIMO
NORMALS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THUR...THEN DROP A COUPLE DEGREES
BEHIND THE FRONT FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS REMAIN AT THE AIRFIELD EVEN WITH PERIODS OF SHRA
THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES REMAIN ABOVE 060 WITH RATHER HIGH
SFC TDD/S. THUS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH DETERIORATION WITH THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. WEDGE SHARPNESS LOOSENS UP THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...SO WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM NE/LY TO S/LY
BY DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH OVERNIGHT PRECLUDING MUCH
OF A FG THREAT...HOWEVER MVFR STCU COULD DEVELOP ARND 12Z.
ELSEWHERE...PRECIP SHIELD IS BREAKING UP TO THE WEST AS DRY AIR ALOFT
WORKS IN. EXPECT SHRA THRU 18Z OR SO MOST SITES WITH TEMPO OR VCSH
AFTER THAT THROUGH 22Z/00Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE HAD IN CIGS AS
PRECIP WANES...BUT VSBYS SHOULD HOLD ON AT LEAST IN THE MVFR RANGE.
A DROP IN CIGS/VSBY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SATURATED LOW LEVELS
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING IN. KAVL AND KAND WILL
LIKELY SEE IFR CONDS WITH THE OTHER SITES DROPPING TO
MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR BEFORE DAYBREAK. A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
OUTSIDE OF KAVL IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE 18Z.
OUTLOOK...A LINGERING WEDGE WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. A RETURN TO A
MORE TYPICAL PATTERN WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 93% HIGH 98%
KGSP HIGH 80% MED 69% HIGH 93% HIGH 88%
KAVL MED 74% HIGH 83% MED 77% HIGH 82%
KHKY HIGH 96% HIGH 89% LOW 37% HIGH 88%
KGMU HIGH 81% MED 79% HIGH 96% HIGH 88%
KAND MED 74% HIGH 94% HIGH 81% LOW 51%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG/SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
221 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY...BUT A MOIST AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THAT MEANS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY NEXT WEEK FAVORING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COMPLICATED SYNOPTIC PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE
MODELS ARE DISAGREEING WITH THE DEGREE OF THE WEDGE BREAKDOWN THIS
EVENING AND THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE FLUX. THE HRRR HAS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA GOING DRY BY 23Z THIS EVENING...WHILE THE OP MODELS
DEPICT A CONTINUED A QPF RESPONSE OVERNIGHT IN MOIST SE/LY FLOW. DO
BELIEVE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD WILL WANE THIS AFTERNOON AS IS
EVIDENT IN THE LATEST RADAR COMP LOOP...HOWEVER VAD WINDS STILL
SHOW A MOIST ATL FETCH THRU 5 KFT. SO...WILL COUNT ON SCT/ISOL SHRA
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ATOP A WEAKENING WEDGE AND TERRAIN LIFT.
THINGS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN TOMORROW WRT COVERAGE AND CHARACTER OF
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. THE GFS AND NAM ARE DEVELOPING DEEP CONVEC
AND A GOOD CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS THE ERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHIFTED WEDGE BNDRY AND DIFF HEATING...WHILE THE CAM/S ARE
INDICATING MTN UPSLOPE -SHRA WITH PERHAPS ISOL THUNDER DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON. THINK THE GENERAL IDEA OF A NE/WARD DISPLACED WEDGE
MAKES SENSE WITH THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTING EAST. HOWEVER...ALSO THINK
CLOUD COVER IN LLVL MOIST ATL FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH...ESP
EARLY ON AND KEEP MOST LOCALES TOO STABLE FOR MUCH MORE THAN ISOL
THUNDER...PERHAPS SCT COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE ERN WEDGE
BNDRY. THE GFS/NAM ARE ALSO INDICATING A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SBCAPE...SO THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TSTMS. THE UNCERTAIN CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO MAKE THE MAX TEMP FCST DIFFICULT AS WELL. DO THINK
THERE WILL BE ENUF THINNING AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON TO
EXPECT A MODEST WARM UP HOWEVER...BUT WILL SIDE THE LOWER END
GUIDANCE LEAVING MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 210 PM EDT SAT...A WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE MIGRATING
TO THE COAST ON TUESDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE SOME NON DIURNAL FORCING IN THE SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT SFC TO 700 MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A SFC WAVE DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS NEAR THE STALLED
BOUNDARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL COMBINE WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH TO
REINFORCE EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITHIN AND ATOP
THE LINGERING CAD LAYER. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR RATHER SOLID PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEAR THE WEDGE BOUNDARY
IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL NOSE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE ALONG WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL LINGER TO
PROVIDE PLENTY OF CLOUDS...CONTINUED SMALLER THAN CLIMO DIURNAL
RANGES ON TEMPS...AND ABOVE CLIMO POPS INTO TUE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SATURDAY...AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD OF
12Z WED...BIG 500MB RIDGE OVER THE WEST CENTERED OVER COLORADO WITH
A LESS FOCUSED RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA. LATER IN THE DAY WED THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN HEATS UP AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPS SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE NC MTNS LATE THURSDAY FURTHER ENHANCING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THE MTNS. CAPE VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 2000 UP
TO 2500 NEAR THE TN BORDER JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AROUND 2000
ALONG AND SE OF I-85 IN THE EARLY EVENING THURS. EXPECT AT LEAST A
FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE UPPER PATTERN FOR SUPPORT OF PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT FAR SOUTH IS GREATEST ON THE GFS AS IT HAS THE FRONT TO NEAR
THE GA / FL BORDER FRI PM WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND STALLS OUT THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL
GA AND CENTRAL SC WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER AUGUSTA FRI
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MTNS WILL BE DRY OR NEAR
DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL A BIT QUESTIONABLE FOR THE
PIEDMONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE NC MTNS LATE IN
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED...NEAR CLIMO
NORMALS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THUR...THEN DROP A COUPLE DEGREES
BEHIND THE FRONT FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS REMAIN AT THE AIRFIELD EVEN WITH PERIODS OF SHRA
THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES REMAIN ABOVE 060 WITH RATHER HIGH
SFC TDD/S. THUS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH DETERIORATION WITH THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. WEDGE SHARPNESS LOOSENS UP THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...SO WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM NE/LY TO S/LY
BY DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HIGH OVERNIGHT PRECLUDING MUCH
OF A FG THREAT...HOWEVER MVFR STCU COULD DEVELOP ARND 12Z.
ELSEWHERE...PRECIP SHIELD IS BREAKING UP TO THE WEST AS DRY AIR ALOFT
WORKS IN. EXPECT SHRA THRU 18Z OR SO MOST SITES WITH TEMPO OR VCSH
AFTER THAT THROUGH 22Z/00Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE HAD IN CIGS AS
PRECIP WANES...BUT VSBYS SHOULD HOLD ON AT LEAST IN THE MVFR RANGE.
A DROP IN CIGS/VSBY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SATURATED LOW LEVELS
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING IN. KAVL AND KAND WILL
LIKELY SEE IFR CONDS WITH THE OTHER SITES DROPPING TO
MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR BEFORE DAYBREAK. A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
OUTSIDE OF KAVL IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE 18Z.
OUTLOOK...A LINGERING WEDGE WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. A RETURN TO A
MORE TYPICAL PATTERN WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 96% HIGH 91%
KGSP MED 69% MED 79% HIGH 98% HIGH 90%
KAVL HIGH 84% HIGH 85% MED 73% HIGH 80%
KHKY HIGH 89% HIGH 100% LOW 44% MED 76%
KGMU MED 74% HIGH 86% HIGH 100% HIGH 89%
KAND MED 78% HIGH 86% HIGH 94% MED 61%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
410 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT EAST...WHILE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY CONTINUES TO BRING
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARM HUMID CONDITIONS
AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 158 PM EDT SATURDAY...
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST NOSING DOWN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTHWEST.
PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST AND TAPER OFF TO LIGHT POPS IN
THE FAR EAST. SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS AND
RNKWRF-ARW WITH THE BEST POPS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR AND HIRESW ARW
HAVE A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ADDED THE
MENTION OF FOG OVERNIGHT. LEANED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSER TO
THE ADJMET WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
A BROAD TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. THE MAIN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. A
LINGERING WEDGE FOR OUR AREA WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE WEST. WENT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE COOLER ADJMET WITH VALUES FROM
LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE A MAMMOTH 600DM RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND LARGELY CONTROL THE STEERING CURRENTS
OVER THE CONUS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. IN SPITE OF THE BUILDING
HEIGHTS...A DEFINITE AND PERSISTENT WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN LEFT
BEHIND FROM THE BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND EVENTUALLY APPEARS TO EVOLVE INTO A PSEUDO
TROPICAL LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY INLAND...AND WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE...THE MODELS RETROGRADE THIS FEATURE WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY BY MID WEEK.
THE FLOW OVER OUR LITTLE PIECE OF REAL ESTATE...AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS PRETTY DEAD ALOFT...LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ADVECTION OF AIR EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH. AS SUCH...EXPECT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS TO MODIFY WITH TIME...THE JULY SUN DOING ITS THING
TO WARM US UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK
TO THE SEASONAL NORM. THE SHOWER THREAT WILL BECOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONLY...AND LITTLE OR NO
PRECIP THREAT AT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ATOP
THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND OUR REGION BY THURSDAY. THE 12Z
GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE LESS
AMPLIFIED ECMWF...IN PUSHING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY...THEN S-SE OF THE AREA FRI. FOLLOWING THE
GFS...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE THURSDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO
YIELD WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +20C ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH LOW 90S IN THE PIEDMONT AND 80S ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY 4 TO 7 DEGREE DOWNTICK IN TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF THERE IS ANY CHANCE OF ORGANIZED STORMS
THIS WEEK IT WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY. ANYTHING BETWEEN NOW AND THEN WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH AND FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE MTNS...WEAK FORCING NOT PROVIDING
FOR MUCH SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING ORGANIZED.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SATURDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
MARGINAL AVIATION CONDITIONS AT TIMES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TN AND INTO OH VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
BULK OF -RA WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ONLY VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES REACHING DAN/LYH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH VFR CIGS CONTINUING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...A WEAK
WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING -SHRA TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...INCLUDING AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION MORE TO
-DZ OR SPOTTY SHOWERS/LT RAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST. CIGS BECOMING IFR- LIFR
IN BR/DZ WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH MVFR VSBYS IN BR...BUT
LIKELY VFR CIGS CONTINUING TO THE EAST. WINDS GENERALLY SE
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5KTS AFT 00Z. A LINGERING WEDGE WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND DIURNAL IN NATURE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS IN SHRA/TSRA AS WELL AS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOCALIZED IFR-LIFR VSBYS WHERE
RAIN OCCURS THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PARTS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...MAINLY WATAUGA COUNTY...HAVE
PICKED UP OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING AND
COMPARABLE AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAME AREA AND POSSIBLY 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF VIRGINIA
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY THE
FURTHER EAST YOU GO...WHERE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST THAT CAN BE EXPECTED. OVERALL CERTAINLY
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NEW...UPPER ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST US
DROUGHT MONITOR (ISSUED JULY 17 2014) NOW SHOWS D0 OR ABNORMALLY
DRY CONDITIONS. 60-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PARTS OF THESE BASINS WITH POCKETS OF 6-INCH DEFICITS ALONG
THE VA-NC BORDER NEAR SURRY AND CARROLL AND PATRICK COUNTIES.
RIVERS AND STREAMFLOWS HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT THE PERSISTENTLY DRY
PATTERN WITH DAILY STREAMFLOW NOW LESS THAN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF
ALL FLOWS FOR THIS DATE AT SEVERAL USGS GAGING STATIONS AND
ACTUALLY EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER JAMES BASIN WHICH MAY BE A
CANDIDATE FOR THE EXPANSION OF THESE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
THE NEXT WEEKLY ISSUANCE OF THE DROUGHT MONITOR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM/RAB
AVIATION...KK
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
158 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT EAST...WHILE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY CONTINUES TO BRING
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARM HUMID CONDITIONS
AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 158 PM EDT SATURDAY...
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST NOSING DOWN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTHWEST.
PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST AND TAPER OFF TO LIGHT POPS IN
THE FAR EAST. SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS AND
RNKWRF-ARW WITH THE BEST POPS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR AND HIRESW ARW
HAVE A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ADDED THE
MENTION OF FOG OVERNIGHT. LEANED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSER TO
THE ADJMET WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
A BROAD TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. THE MAIN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. A
LINGERING WEDGE FOR OUR AREA WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE WEST. WENT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE COOLER ADJMET WITH VALUES FROM
LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CURRENT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION/WEAKEN
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A MAMMOTH 600DM RIDGE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND LARGELY CONTROL THE STEERING
CURRENTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...A DEFINITE AND PERISTENT
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN LEFT BEHIND FROM THE BASE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EVENTUALLY APPEARS TO
EVOLVE INTO A PSEUDO TROPICAL LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF WERE QUITE DISCREPANT ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS BUILDING THE FEATURE BACK
ACROSS GA AND THEN RETROGRADING WEST TOWARD AL/MS BEFORE SHEARING
OUT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEK. YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF BROUGHT THIS
FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD IN
ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LATE WEEK TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS. AS SUCH...IT
APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED
WEAK UPPER TROUGH...588 DM...PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...CENTERED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH THE
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING POOLED ACROSS THE GA/SC REGION.
AS SUCH...IT IS HARD TO FIND ANY SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ONE DAY VERSUS ANOTHER. PERHAPS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST TUE-WED...PUSHING THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE.
HOWEVER...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TRIGGERING SHRA/TSRA EACH AFTERNOON.
WITH RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION. BEST OPTION WAS TO CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS WITH A
DIURNAL CYCLE EACH DAY. THE REGION MOST LIKELY TO SEE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ACROSS NW NC CLOSEST TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LOW ACROSS GA/SC.
TEMPERATURES WILL EDGE SLOWLY UPWARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
WIDESPREAD 80S...APPROACHING 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY TUE...70S
TO NEAR 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MAMMOTH 600DM UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH EASTERN
U.S. EDGING TOWARD THE COAST. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ATOP THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS DRIVES A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND OUR REGION
BY THU. GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE
LATEST 00Z RUN IN PUSHING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION
THU...THEN S-SE OF THE AREA FRI. THIS NECESSITATED SOME CHANGES IN
THE EXTENDED POPS. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO YIELD WEDNESDAY BEING
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING +20C ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EXPECT LOW 90S IN THE PIEDMONT AND 80S ELSEWHERE. THU
SHOULD BRING THE BEST COVERAGE OF TSRA TO THE REGION...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG ALONG THE FRONT SYSTEM AND IN THE
HOT...UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRECEDING IT. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY AS
USUAL ON EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF THE FRONTAL CONVECTION.
FRI...SHOULD AT LEAST A DRIER AIR MASS SPREAD INTO THE REGION PER
LATEST MODEL TRENDS...PUSHING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAINLY
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SATURDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
MARGINAL AVIATION CONDITIONS AT TIMES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TN AND INTO OH VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
BULK OF -RA WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ONLY VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES REACHING DAN/LYH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH VFR CIGS CONTINUING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...A WEAK
WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING -SHRA TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...INCLUDING AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION MORE TO
-DZ OR SPOTTY SHOWERS/LT RAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST. CIGS BECOMING IFR- LIFR
IN BR/DZ WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH MVFR VSBYS IN BR...BUT
LIKELY VFR CIGS CONTINUING TO THE EAST. WINDS GENERALLY SE
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5KTS AFT 00Z. A LINGERING WEDGE WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND DIURNAL IN NATURE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS IN SHRA/TSRA AS WELL AS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOCALIZED IFR-LIFR VSBYS WHERE
RAIN OCCURS THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PARTS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...MAINLY WATAUGA COUNTY...HAVE
PICKED UP OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING AND
COMPARABLE AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAME AREA AND POSSIBLY 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF VIRGINIA
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY THE
FURTHER EAST YOU GO...WHERE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST THAT CAN BE EXPECTED. OVERALL CERTAINLY
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NEW...UPPER ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST US
DROUGHT MONITOR (ISSUED JULY 17 2014) NOW SHOWS D0 OR ABNORMALLY
DRY CONDITIONS. 60-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PARTS OF THESE BASINS WITH POCKETS OF 6-INCH DEFICITS ALONG
THE VA-NC BORDER NEAR SURRY AND CARROLL AND PATRICK COUNTIES.
RIVERS AND STREAMFLOWS HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT THE PERSISTENTLY DRY
PATTERN WITH DAILY STREAMFLOW NOW LESS THAN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF
ALL FLOWS FOR THIS DATE AT SEVERAL USGS GAGING STATIONS AND
ACTUALLY EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER JAMES BASIN WHICH MAY BE A
CANDIDATE FOR THE EXPANSION OF THESE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
THE NEXT WEEKLY ISSUANCE OF THE DROUGHT MONITOR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PC
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PW/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PC/RAB
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
128 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT EAST WHILE A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY CONTINUES TO BRING
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TODAY. MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARM HUMID CONDITIONS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KFCX 88D LOOP SHOWED RAIN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING. THIS MORNING RNK 12Z/8AM SOUNDING INDICATED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB AND PWAT AT 1.34 INCHES.
OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST NOSING DOWN THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC
REGION. LEANED POPS TOWARDS RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR FOR THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FURTHER EAST EXTENT OF THE RAIN
COVERAGE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND LOWERED HIGHS IN THE WEST WITH
CLOUDS AND RAIN. MORE CHANGES LATER...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...
PATTERN FEATURING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT SOME OVERRUNNING RAINFALL TO THE CWA IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAINFALL REMAINING TO
OUR SOUTH AND ALSO NORTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO DRAW IN SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION KEEPING OUR PIEDMONT AREAS MOSTLY DRY. QPF IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS NOT ACTUALLY VERY DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST 24
HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINING BACK OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY IN NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST AND CHANCE POPS FOR THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FAR EAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPERATURES AGAIN...UP TO 10F BELOW NORMAL MID-JULY HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CURRENT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION/WEAKEN
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A MAMMOTH 600DM RIDGE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND LARGELY CONTROL THE STEERING
CURRENTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...A DEFINITE AND PERISTENT
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN LEFT BEHIND FROM THE BASE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EVENTUALLY APPEARS TO
EVOLVE INTO A PSEUDO TROPICAL LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF WERE QUITE DISCREPANT ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS BUILDING THE FEATURE BACK
ACROSS GA AND THEN RETROGRADING WEST TOWARD AL/MS BEFORE SHEARING
OUT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEK. YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF BROUGHT THIS
FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD IN
ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LATE WEEK TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS. AS SUCH...IT
APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED
WEAK UPPER TROUGH...588 DM...PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...CENTERED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH THE
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING POOLED ACROSS THE GA/SC REGION.
AS SUCH...IT IS HARD TO FIND ANY SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ONE DAY VERSUS ANOTHER. PERHAPS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST TUE-WED...PUSHING THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE.
HOWEVER...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TRIGGERING SHRA/TSRA EACH AFTERNOON.
WITH RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION. BEST OPTION WAS TO CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS WITH A
DIURNAL CYCLE EACH DAY. THE REGION MOST LIKELY TO SEE BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ACROSS NW NC CLOSEST TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LOW ACROSS GA/SC.
TEMPERATURES WILL EDGE SLOWLY UPWARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
WIDESPREAD 80S...APPROACHING 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY TUE...70S
TO NEAR 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MAMMOTH 600DM UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH EASTERN
U.S. EDGING TOWARD THE COAST. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ATOP THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS DRIVES A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND OUR REGION
BY THU. GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE
LATEST 00Z RUN IN PUSHING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION
THU...THEN S-SE OF THE AREA FRI. THIS NECESSITATED SOME CHANGES IN
THE EXTENDED POPS. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO YIELD WEDNESDAY BEING
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING +20C ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EXPECT LOW 90S IN THE PIEDMONT AND 80S ELSEWHERE. THU
SHOULD BRING THE BEST COVERAGE OF TSRA TO THE REGION...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG ALONG THE FRONT SYSTEM AND IN THE
HOT...UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRECEDING IT. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY AS
USUAL ON EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF THE FRONTAL CONVECTION.
FRI...SHOULD AT LEAST A DRIER AIR MASS SPREAD INTO THE REGION PER
LATEST MODEL TRENDS...PUSHING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAINLY
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SATURDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
MARGINAL AVIATION CONDITIONS AT TIMES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TN AND INTO OH VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
BULK OF -RA WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ONLY VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES REACHING DAN/LYH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH VFR CIGS CONTINUING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...A WEAK
WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING -SHRA TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...INCLUDING AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION MORE TO
-DZ OR SPOTTY SHOWERS/LT RAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST. CIGS BECOMING IFR- LIFR
IN BR/DZ WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH MVFR VSBYS IN BR...BUT
LIKELY VFR CIGS CONTINUING TO THE EAST. WINDS GENERALLY SE
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5KTS AFT 00Z. A LINGERING WEDGE WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND DIURNAL IN NATURE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS IN SHRA/TSRA AS WELL AS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOCALIZED IFR-LIFR VSBYS WHERE
RAIN OCCURS THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PARTS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...MAINLY WATAUGA COUNTY...HAVE
PICKED UP OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING AND
COMPARABLE AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAME AREA AND POSSIBLY 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF VIRGINIA
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY THE
FURTHER EAST YOU GO...WHERE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST THAT CAN BE EXPECTED. OVERALL CERTAINLY
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NEW...UPPER ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST US
DROUGHT MONITOR (ISSUED JULY 17 2014) NOW SHOWS D0 OR ABNORMALLY
DRY CONDITIONS. 60-DAY RAINFALL DEFICITS RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PARTS OF THESE BASINS WITH POCKETS OF 6-INCH DEFICITS ALONG
THE VA-NC BORDER NEAR SURRY AND CARROLL AND PATRICK COUNTIES.
RIVERS AND STREAMFLOWS HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT THE PERSISTENTLY DRY
PATTERN WITH DAILY STREAMFLOW NOW LESS THAN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF
ALL FLOWS FOR THIS DATE AT SEVERAL USGS GAGING STATIONS AND
ACTUALLY EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER JAMES BASIN WHICH MAY BE A
CANDIDATE FOR THE EXPANSION OF THESE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
THE NEXT WEEKLY ISSUANCE OF THE DROUGHT MONITOR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...KK/PC
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PW/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PC/RAB/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
307 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
CURRENTLY WATCHING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NW WI
THROUGH SCNTL MN. THERE WAS A SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE WAVE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT THESE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WANES...
PER THE RAP ANALYSIS. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AND
ALTOCUMULUS CLOUD WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.
FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND OVERNIGHT LOW READINGS
IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.
FOR SUNDAY...WILL SEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES BETTER AXIS OF 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACROSS/OVER THE WARM FRONT INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MN...SO
THINKING ANY SHOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED ACROSS
THAT AREA LEAVING US PRECIPITATION FREE WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
TOPPING OFF IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE. WILL FEEL A TAD MORE HUMID
THOUGH AS DEW POINTS CREEP UPWARD THROUGH THE 60S.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
MN/CENTRAL WI. ECMWF HAS SHOWN BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENT MCS SIGNAL
AS 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKES AIM INTO OUR AREA. QUESTION
REMAINS ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS MCS WILL TRACK. LATEST 19.12Z RUN
TAKES THE MCS FROM NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE 06-12Z
TIME FRAME. NAM/GFS SHOWING SOME RESPONSE/QPF-WISE...BUT NOT AS
INTENSE. ECMWF SHOWS 0-3KM MUCAPE 1000-2000J/KG...MAINLY ABOVE 850MB
WITH WEAK EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. AT THE SAME TIME... PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES. SO...COULD SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW THIS EVOLVES GIVEN FORWARD MOVING CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD
TAKE THE MCS MORE INTO OUR AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
A FEW LINGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEEN MONDAY
MORNING...BUT THE ATTENTION TURNS TO INCREASING HEAT AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. LOOKING FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE 95-100
DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/WEST
CENTRAL WI. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR POSSIBLE HEAT
HEADLINES.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE
WEATHER AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA. ECMWF SHOWS 0-3KM MUCAPE INCREASING INTO THE 1500-3000J/KG
RANGE WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 25-35KT RANGE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS SCENARIO FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT/MAINLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR HIGHS LOWERING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 70S.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI REGION. LOOKS LIKE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO RESULT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 5 KFT. A MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF CIRRUS AND SCATTERED
CUMULUS WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS
AREA OF CUMULUS AND CIRRUS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS IT SLIDES
EAST BUT MAY PRODUCE BROKEN CEILINGS AT KRST AND KLSE AT TIMES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BUT CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN VFR.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 12 TO 15 KTS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1147 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VERY WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH A STRONG THERMAL
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SFC TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND
ADDITIONAL STRONG HEATING IS LIKELY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED FCST HIGHS BY
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK
TSTM ALONG AND EAST OF I25 LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVE. MODEST
LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE SPARSE WITH SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z NAM
QPF AND HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY...ADDED ISOLATED POPS TO THOSE
AREAS LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
TODAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR COUNTIES...SO WILL KEEP
IT DRY FOR OUR COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...DRY WEST LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS...THUS A CLEAR
AND RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT.
SUNDAY...NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT RESIDES OVER OUR
COUNTIES. MODELS PROG SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON...THUS CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...DRY ELSEWHERE
DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
SUNDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWEST. EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MONDAY...NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER NORTHERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
DOUGLAS TO LUSK TO CHADRON...DRY ELSEWHERE WITH WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NORTH OF THE CWFA OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DOES NOT REALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW POPS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE THATS OVER THE STATE.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW QPF OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES DURING THIS
TIME. GOING TO BE PRETTY WARM NEXT WEEK WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES
REACHING +18C BY FRIDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES AS
THE WEEK DRAWS ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
AN UNEVENTFUL AVIATION PERIOD SHAPING UP WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. BAND OF HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A FEW SHALLOW AFTERNOON BUILDUPS.
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL KEEP ALL OF THE ACTIVITY VERY
HIGH BASED...BETWEEN 12-15KFT AGL. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES FROM THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT SE WY SITES AND
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LOCATIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
LOWEST HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 15 PERCENT WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS FROM RAWLINS TO LARAMIE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AGAIN FROM RAWLINS TO
LARAMIE. SIMILAR HUMIDITIES AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS
ALONG AND WEST OF A LARAMIE TO LUSK LINE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1046 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VERY WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH A STRONG THERMAL
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SFC TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND
ADDITIONAL STRONG HEATING IS LIKELY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED FCST HIGHS BY
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK
TSTM ALONG AND EAST OF I25 LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVE. MODEST
LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE SPARSE WITH SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z NAM
QPF AND HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY...ADDED ISOLATED POPS TO THOSE
AREAS LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
TODAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR COUNTIES...SO WILL KEEP
IT DRY FOR OUR COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...DRY WEST LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS...THUS A CLEAR
AND RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT.
SUNDAY...NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT RESIDES OVER OUR
COUNTIES. MODELS PROG SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON...THUS CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...DRY ELSEWHERE
DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
SUNDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWEST. EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MONDAY...NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER NORTHERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
DOUGLAS TO LUSK TO CHADRON...DRY ELSEWHERE WITH WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NORTH OF THE CWFA OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DOES NOT REALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW POPS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE THATS OVER THE STATE.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW QPF OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES DURING THIS
TIME. GOING TO BE PRETTY WARM NEXT WEEK WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES
REACHING +18C BY FRIDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES AS
THE WEEK DRAWS ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014
LOWEST HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 15 PERCENT WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS FROM RAWLINS TO LARAMIE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AGAIN FROM RAWLINS TO
LARAMIE. SIMILAR HUMIDITIES AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS
ALONG AND WEST OF A LARAMIE TO LUSK LINE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN