Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/18/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
356 PM PDT Wed Jul 16 2014
.Synopsis...
Monsoon moisture will bring mostly cloudy skies and near to below
normal temperatures through the end of the week. There is a chance
of thunderstorms & showers over higher terrain through Saturday
including the Sierra, Coastal, and Northern mountains surrounding
interior NorCal.
&&
.Discussion...
Deep moisture remains over NorCal represented by preciptable water
values from 1-1.5 inches. Storms were early to develop today...but
have been weaker than the past few days. The strongest storms thus
far have remained south of Yosemite. Still...A chance storms to
propagate north through the early evening. Although HRRR confines
the activity to the crest. Moderate onshore continues over the
southern valley and is keeping temperatures slightly below
normal. More clearing tonight over the srn/central valley will
allow for cooler lows compared to the past few nights. Cloud
cover will remain to the north keeping lows warmer there.
Onshore flow and cloud cover will keep temperatures in the upper
80`s to low 90`s southern valley through Saturday. Warmer to the
north where readings will be in the upper 90`s. A weak
disturbance moving north along the coast may help to enhance
activity on Thursday. However...both NMM/ARW WRF cores keep
activity mainly along the crest with an increase in activity over
Lassen and nrn Shasta county and have adjusted pop fields to
account for this shift. Will keep thunderstorm chances going over
the mountains Friday as instability remains with weak disturbance
off the coast. Drier air will begin filtering in on Saturday with
increasing westerly flow pushing most of the activity east of the
crest. Will focus pops over the Tuolumne county portion of the
Sierra where instability lingers.
.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)
By Sunday, the broad upper level trough over the PacNW will
deepen along the west coast, which will keep temperatures near
to slightly below normal for northern California. Most of the
moisture from the trough will remain generally north of our area,
and increased southwest flow will keep most of the monsoonal
moisture south and east of the area. Next week will continue to be
benign and dry under general southwest flow with a slight warming
trend through Wednesday. Shen
&&
.Aviation...
Mainly VFR next 24 hours across interior Northern California.
Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms over mountains will
continue through this evening. SW surface winds 20-30 kt near the
Delta.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
450 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO PORTIONS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL
JULY WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE MARINE INFLUENCE RETURNS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:25 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AREA THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE LACK OF DECENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OVER THE REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF AT TIMES
OVER THE REGION. HAVING SAID THAT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
WHILE THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SHIFT NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT OF AN INCREASE IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL
CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CANNOT RULE OUT THE RETURN
OF TYPICAL "JUNE GLOOM" CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST WHILE INLAND
AREAS CLEAR OUT AND WARM UP EACH AFTERNOON. BY LATE WEEK...A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL KEEP A DRIER
AIR MASS OVER OUR REGION AND MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA REMAINS
BETWEEN TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND A DEEPENING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:49 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE IS
STREAMING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING MAKING IT DIFFICULT
TO ANALYZE LOW CLOUDS WITH SATELLITE DATA. DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING
ON THE HIGH SIDE AROUND 16 DEGREES CELSIUS AND TPW VALUES ARE
QUITE HIGH AROUND 1.44 INCHES. THIS MEANS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD BASES AT APPROXIMATELY 1500
FEET IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND 600 TO 1000 FEET IN THE
MONTEREY AREA. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES IN PLACE STRATUS
WILL BE STUBBORN TO BURN OFF IN MONTEREY BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS BKN012 ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
FORM SHORTLY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY AROUND 1600Z. VFR IS
ANTICIPATED AFTER 1600Z LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL
THIS MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR AT KMRY AROUND 1800Z AND 1900Z AT
KSNS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:25 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. GENTLE SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT
WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SATURDAY
EVENING OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 11 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
436 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO PORTIONS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL
JULY WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE MARINE INFLUENCE RETURNS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:25 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AREA THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE LACK OF DECENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OVER THE REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF AT TIMES
OVER THE REGION. HAVING SAID THAT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
WHILE THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SHIFT NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT OF AN INCREASE IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL
CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CANNOT RULE OUT THE RETURN
OF TYPICAL "JUNE GLOOM" CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST WHILE INLAND
AREAS CLEAR OUT AND WARM UP EACH AFTERNOON. BY LATE WEEK...A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL KEEP A DRIER
AIR MASS OVER OUR REGION AND MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA REMAINS
BETWEEN TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND A DEEPENING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:49 PM PDT TUESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. A FEW RETURNS
VISIBLE ON RADAR OVER THE EAST BAY HAVE PRODUCED A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY REPORTS OF SHOWERS OVER AREA
TERMINALS. HOWEVER WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SOUTH OR BECOME
SQUIRRELY ACROSS BAY AREA TERMINALS AS THIS LINES MOVES THROUGH.
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRATUS IS
ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INLAND TONIGHT BRINGING IFR CIGS TO MOST SITES.
A MODERATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BETWEEN 08Z-09Z OVER AREA
TERMINALS. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER KOAK WHILE KSFO EXPERIENCES VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...PATCHY CIGS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY NEAR THE TERMINAL.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO LIFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER AREA
TERMINALS TONIGHT. LIGHT WEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:25 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. GENTLE SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT
WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SATURDAY
EVENING OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 11 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1049 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR DISTRICT. SOME DRYING OF THE AIR
MASS ALOFT IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THUS A
REDUCTION IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AND AN END TO ANY PRECIP
CHANCES. THE MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE HOWEVER ALONG WITH A MODEST COOLING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...LATEST RADAR IMAGE SHOWS
SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER THE SIERRAS
MOVING WEST TOWARDS ALAMEDA AND CONTRA COSTA COUNTIES. THIS HAS
BEEN PICKED UP WELL BY THE HRRR MODEL. THE MODELS ARE NOT
FORECASTING ANY QPF SO ONLY LIGHT SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED AT MOST.
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUING CHANCE OF
MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE SFO BAY AREA POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT
SPRINKLES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY.
A COOLER AIRMASS ALOFT MOVED OVER THE DISTRICT TODAY AS THE 925 MB
TEMPERATURES COOLED FROM 31 CELSIUS YESTERDAY TO AROUND 24 TODAY.
AS A RESULT MANY NORTH AND EAST BAY INLAND AREAS WERE AS MUCH AS
10-15 DEGREES COOLER. ON THE OTHER HAND LESS CLOUDINESS IN THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR ALLOWED THOSE AREAS TO WARM UP A FEW DEGREES.
AND THE SOUTHEAST FLOW HELPED PUSH TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY AREA AND ADJACENT VALLEYS UP AS MUCH AS 10-15
DEGREES. IT MAY HAVE FELT MUGGIER TODAY AS DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE DISTRICT.
STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST TONIGHT AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY
SWITCHES TO SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL PRETTY MUCH CUT OFF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AFTER WEDNESDAY. MARINE AIR WILL BRING COOLING
AND LESS MUGGINESS TO THE COAST AND THE SFO BAY AREA ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IN THE EXTENDED...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ASIDE FROM THE COASTAL STRATUS...AND COOLER
THAN SEASONAL NORM TEMPS INLAND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AND THEN IT LOOKS LIKE A WARMING TREND FOR NEXT WEEK AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS WESTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA WITH WARMING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. IN THIS REGARD WILL NOTE
THAT LATEST ECMWF RUN ACTUALLY TAKES THE HEIGHT AT ITS CENTER ALL
THE WAY UP TO 601 DM BY 18Z NEXT TUES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:49 PM PDT TUESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. A FEW RETURNS
VISIBLE ON RADAR OVER THE EAST BAY HAVE PRODUCED A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY REPORTS OF SHOWERS OVER AREA
TERMINALS. HOWEVER WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SOUTH OR BECOME
SQUIRRELY ACROSS BAY AREA TERMINALS AS THIS LINES MOVES THROUGH.
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRATUS IS
ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INLAND TONIGHT BRINGING IFR CIGS TO MOST SITES.
A MODERATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BETWEEN 08Z-09Z OVER AREA
TERMINALS. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER KOAK WHILE KSFO EXPERIENCES VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...PATCHY CIGS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY NEAR THE TERMINAL.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO LIFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER AREA
TERMINALS TONIGHT. LIGHT WEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: W BLIER/W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
900 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FROM THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES OVER THE REGION AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO DOUBLE DIGITS OVER THE REGION BY TOMORROW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY /1700
PDT THIS EVENING/...CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP AGAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND PARTS OF INYO AND MONO COUNTIES. WHILE
THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SOUTHEASTERLY...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA CREST INTO THE WFO HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA.
EVEN SO...THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WERE SPARED ANY
CONVECTION TODAY...SO HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS
FROM THIS EVENING.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
DEVILS POST PILE RECEIVED 1.09 INCH OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR...FROM
2114-2214Z /1414-1514 PDT/ THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE WHITE WOLF HAD
0.45 INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOUR FROM 1953-2053Z /1253-1353 PDT/. THE
HEAVY RAINS...AND THE MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE RIM FIRE BURN SCAR...PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING. ALTHOUGH NO FLOODING WAS REPORTED AT THE BURN
SCAR...ROCK AND DEBRIS SLIDES DID CLOSE TIOGA PASS FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
NEW CELLS CONTINUE TO POP UP THIS EVENING...EVEN AFTER SUNSET.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN
THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS...SO HAVE KEPT POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE WARM AIRMASS ALSO MAY ENABLE FRESNO TO TIE ITS RECORD HIGH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY. THE LOW SO FAR AT THE FRESNO-
YOSEMITE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY HAS BEEN 81 DEGREES. IF THIS
STAND THROUGH 08Z /0100 PDT OR 0000 PST/ WEDNESDAY...IT WOULD TIE
THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR JULY 15TH OF 81 DEGREES...SET IN 1984.
/WEATHER DATA ARE RECORDED IN STANDARD TIME TO AVOID THE CLOCK
CHANGES BETWEEN STANDARD AND DAYLIGHT TIME. THUS...RECORDS ARE NOT
SET UNTIL MIDNIGHT STANDARD TIME./
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA UNTIL 06Z WED AND AGAIN AFTER 18Z
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV UPDATE... /ISSUED 416 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
RIM FIRE BURN SCAR HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE BURN AREA. HAVE
THEREFORE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RIM FIRE BURN
SCAR.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 245 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAM INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST SHOW AS MUCH AS 1.75 INCHES OF PRECIP-WATER AT
12 UTC (5 AM PDT). CLIMO VALUES FROM UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS SHOW
THESE VALUES REACHING NEAR THE MAX PRECIP-WATER VALUES FOR MID-
JULY. THEREFORE...THE CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AFFECTED AREAS IS MINIMAL TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SIERRA NEVADA IN AREAS WHERE MESO-SCALE MODELS PLACED IT THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOWING THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE HRRR MODEL AND EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD CLOSER TO YOSEMITE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT
RANGE ENSEMBLE (EVEN STORM SCALE ENSEMBLES) SUPPORT THE TREND OF
SLOWLY SHIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE
BURN AREA OF THE RIM FIRE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS THIS AFTERNOON. CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW
VERY SLOW MOTION WITH THIS AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION WHICH INCREASES
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AROUND THE YOSEMITE AREA.
WHILE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT THE ONGOING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE HRRR 1KM-AGL
REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT ONLY GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE
MODEL DOES NOT TERMINATE CONVECTION THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND
POSSIBILITY CONTINUES IT INTO THE EARLY DAWN HOURS. IN ADDITION...
ECMWF/GFS40 SHOWING ONLY A VERY SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTION /LI-CAPE
WISE/ WITH THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST BECOMING CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
YET...EVEN WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE SURGING THROUGH
THE AREA OBSERVED AND MODEL PRECIP-WATER IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF
AS YUMA SHOWS LOWER VALUES THEN LAS VEGAS. THEREFORE...WHILE
WEDNESDAY MAY BE VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE
LESS COVERAGE OVER THE DISTRICT AS THE BULK OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY SHIFT
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW FOR DIMINISHED THUNDERSTORM THREATS.
WHILE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL EXIST
ON SATURDAY...LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL KEEP IT CONFINED TO
THE HIGH COUNTY OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.
A DEEP TROF IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN TOWARD THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL SHIFT THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND STOP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEK. YET...WITH TROF WILL ALSO ALLOW THE RIDGE
TO AMPLIFY FOR ANOTHER WARMING TREND. AFTER A MINOR COOL DOWN
LATER THIS WEEK...WILL SEE WARMING (AND ABOVE 100 DEG-F) BY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 16 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-15 111:1972 83:1975 81:1984 54:1905
KFAT 07-16 111:1925 83:1958 80:1984 54:1905
KFAT 07-17 114:1925 78:1987 80:1984 56:1987
KBFL 07-15 114:1930 87:2011 85:1917 53:1905
KBFL 07-16 115:1925 84:1958 81:2010 52:1899
KBFL 07-17 114:1925 82:1987 81:2005 53:1905
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DS
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...SANGER
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
432 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST MAY LEAD TO INCREASED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT...LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF NEW LONDON, CT TO
SOUTHAMPTON, NY AS OF 3 PM WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS SUNSET. LIGHT RAIN NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTH FORK OF LONG
ISLAND AND EXPECTED TO END BY 6 PM...IF NOT SOONER. LATEST HRRR HAS
A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KMTP TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...BUT HAVE LEFT THE AREA
DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
THERE`S A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES
THIS EVENING WITH WAVES OF AROUND 3 FT IN THE
ROCKAWAYS...INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 6 FT OUT AT HITHER HILLS.
LOWS ARE A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ON THE TAILS OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE JUST BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH LOW HUMIDITY (DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE 50S). EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY...THOUGH SUSPECT WE`LL STILL
HAVE THIN CIRRUS OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT AS PER THE RH PROFILES IN
THE LATEST NAM AND GFS. (NOTE THE 100+ KT JET AT 200 HPA OVER THE
REGION).
TEMP FORECAST BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS THAT EXHIBITED
VERY LITTLE SPREAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS AND NEAR AVG TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF NEAR THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LATE DAY INSTABILITY FOR
AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM BOTH SAT/SUNDAY AFTERNOONS WELL NORTH/WEST
OF NYC.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FLOW ALOFT DIFFERENTLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING THE UPPER LOW TO THE
WEST...WITH CORRESPONDING LOWER HEIGHTS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD
KEEPING A FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. ECMWF WEAKENS THIS
LOW...WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS ALONG THE COAST...HELPING BRING THIS FRONT
AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.
AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...KEEPING PRECIP WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE OFFSHORE...BUT ALLOWING ENOUGH CLOUDS TO STREAM IN FROM
THE SOUTH TO HELP KEEP TEMPS SUNDAY-MON SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG. WITH THE
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR LATE DAY AND
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION FROM MON THROUGH WED...WITH NEAR AVG TEMPS
RETURNING FOR TUE-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
VFR...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE SEA BREEZES PASS THROUGH BY
SUNSET.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
CHANCE THAT SEA BREEZE DOES NOT CROSS THE TERMINAL...WINDS WOULD
OTHERWISE MOST LIKELY PREVAIL 240-270 MAGNETIC INTO THIS EVENING.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
CHANCE THAT SEA BREEZE DOES NOT CROSS THE TERMINAL...WINDS WOULD
OTHERWISE MOST LIKELY PREVAIL 240-270 MAGNETIC INTO THIS EVENING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU PM-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT ISO/SCT SHRA/TSTM IN AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN HAS BEEN EXTENDED AGAIN. ONLY WORKING
BUOY (44017) SHOWS 6.2 FT AT LAST REPORT AND HOLDING STEADY.
PERIOD IS 6-8 SECONDS...SO CERTAINLY ROUGH OUT THERE. LATEST 12Z
RUN OF THE WWW3 MODEL SUPPORT THIS OBSERVATIONS...THOUGH IS A BIT
TOO HIGH. SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF MONTAUK
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO ELEVATE OCEAN SEAS
ON MON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN WILL END OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS BY EVENING...NO HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
347 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST MAY LEAD TO INCREASED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT...LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF NEW LONDON, CT TO
SOUTHAMPTON, NY AS OF 3 PM WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS SUNSET. LIGHT RAIN NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTH FORK OF LONG
ISLAND AND EXPECTED TO END BY 6 PM...IF NOT SOONER. LATEST HRRR HAS
A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KMTP TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...BUT HAVE LEFT THE AREA
DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
THERE`S A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES
THIS EVENING WITH WAVES OF AROUND 3 FT IN THE
ROCKAWAYS...INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 6 FT OUT AT HITHER HILLS.
LOWS ARE A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ON THE TAILS OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE JUST BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH LOW HUMIDITY (DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE 50S). EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY...THOUGH SUSPECT WE`LL STILL
HAVE THIN CIRRUS OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT AS PER THE RH PROFILES IN
THE LATEST NAM AND GFS. (NOTE THE 100+ KT JET AT 200 HPA OVER THE
REGION).
TEMP FORECAST BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS THAT EXHIBITED
VERY LITTLE SPREAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS AND NEAR AVG TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF NEAR THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LATE DAY INSTABILITY FOR
AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM BOTH SAT/SUNDAY AFTERNOONS WELL NORTH/WEST
OF NYC.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FLOW ALOFT DIFFERENTLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING THE UPPER LOW TO THE
WEST...WITH CORRESPONDING LOWER HEIGHTS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD
KEEPING A FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. ECMWF WEAKENS THIS
LOW...WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS ALONG THE COAST...HELPING BRING THIS FRONT
AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.
AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...KEEPING PRECIP WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE OFFSHORE...BUT ALLOWING ENOUGH CLOUDS TO STREAM IN FROM
THE SOUTH TO HELP KEEP TEMPS SUNDAY-MON SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG. WITH THE
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR LATE DAY AND
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION FROM MON THROUGH WED...WITH NEAR AVG TEMPS
RETURNING FOR TUE-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
VFR...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE SEA BREEZES PASS THROUGH BY
SUNSET.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
CHANCE THAT SEA BREEZE DOES NOT CROSS THE TERMINAL...WINDS WOULD
OTHERWISE MOST LIKELY PREVAIL 240-270 MAGNETIC INTO THIS EVENING.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
CHANCE THAT SEA BREEZE DOES NOT CROSS THE TERMINAL...WINDS WOULD
OTHERWISE MOST LIKELY PREVAIL 240-270 MAGNETIC INTO THIS EVENING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU PM-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT ISO/SCT SHRA/TSTM IN AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN HAS BEEN EXTENDED AGAIN. ONLY WORKING
BUOY (44017) SHOWS 6.2 FT AT LAST REPORT AND HOLDING STEADY.
PERIOD IS 6-8 SECONDS...SO CERTAINLY ROUGH OUT THERE. LATEST 12Z
RUN OF THE WWW3 MODEL SUPPORT THIS OBSERVATIONS...THOUGH IS A BIT
TOO HIGH. SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF MONTAUK
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO ELEVATE OCEAN SEAS
ON MON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN WILL END OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS BY EVENING...NO HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
119 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED. COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN
SUFFOLK AND SOUTHEASTERN CT AS DEFINED BY WIND SHIFT AND LOWERING
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM. SHOWERS NOW CONFINED TO LONG
ISLAND AND CT. CONVECTION IS PASSING SOUTHEAST OF KMTP.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE BASIC ELEMENTS BEING UPDATED
BASED ON TRENDS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR RUNS. ONE LARGE CHANGE WAS
MADE TO THE WINDS. RAP AND HRRR INDICATE A SEA BREEZE. AFTER THIS
NORTHERLY SURGE THAT MOVES THE FRONT TO THE EAST...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BECOMES WEAK AS SEEM BY THE CURRENTLY CALM WINDS OVER THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THUS...EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING FOR A SEA BREEZE
TO DEVELOP.
AS FOR PCPN...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF AN ISOLATED TSTMS...THOUGH THINK
THIS THREAT IS VERY LOW DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY ALOFT. WILL
LIKELY REMOVE THIS WITH THE 1 PM UPDATE.
THERE`S A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE AIR MASS
GRADUALLY DRYING OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ON THE TAILS OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STATES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE JUST BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S AT
THE COAST. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK THERMAL TROUGH FRIDAY AFTN COMBINING WITH PASSAGE OF
WEAK VORT MAX COULD WORK TO TRIGGER AN ISO SHOWER OVER INTERIOR
REGIONS WITH WEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LIMITING
MOISTURE COULD ASSIST IN KEEPING THINGS DRY...AND THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THE
UPPER FLOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH THE RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
PUSHES EAST WARRANTS THE CONTINUING MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC PCPN SAT
AFTN/EVENING. MEANWHILE...AS THE HIGH LOSES ITS HOLD ON THE
NORTHEAST...WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND
GRADUALLY NUDGES TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...00Z MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE IN KEEPING THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE FROM THE REGION SO THE ACTUAL IMPACT OF THE LOW LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL TO THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED CHC
POPS FOR NOW WITH DECENT FORCING ALOFT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVES
POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. HOWEVER...IF THIS
MODEL TREND CONTINUES...COULD VERY WELL END UP SEEING A DRY WEEKEND
WITH THE PCPN HOLDING OFF INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS HOVER RIGHT AROUND NORMAL HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
COASTAL AREAS POTENTIALLY REMAINING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NYC TERMINALS AT 11Z...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST PASSING EAST OF THE REGION AROUND 00Z/THU.
VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS WHERE MARGINAL VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...THEN GO BACK TO NORTHWEST TO NORTH AFTER
00Z.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR...BRIEF MARGINAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TO
AROUND 14Z WITH SHOWERS. 17Z WIND BACKS TO WEST...270 TO 280 TRUE.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR...BRIEF MARGINAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TO
AROUND 14Z WITH SHOWERS. 17Z WIND BACKS TO WEST...270 TO 280 TRUE.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR...BRIEF MARGINAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TO
AROUND 13Z WITH SHOWERS. 16Z WIND BACKS TO WEST...270 TO 280 TRUE.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR...16Z WIND BACKS TO WEST...270 TO 280 TRUE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR...BRIEF MARGINAL CONDITIONS TO AROUND 13Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE OF CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS TO 13Z JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. 19Z WIND BECOMES WESTERLY...AROUND 290 TRUE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR...BRIEF MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
THROUGH 14Z. VERY LOW CHANCE THAT SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR EMBEDDED
IN THE SHOWERS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR...HOWEVER MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
SHRA/TSTM WEST OF A LINE FROM WESTERN CT TO CENTRAL LONG ISLAND.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS LONGER
INTO THIS EVENING...FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN RIGHT
AROUND 5 FT WITH A SLY WIND WAVE. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS BY FRIDAY WILL KEEP SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...COULD
SEE INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE EAST OF NYC
TODAY WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE
THE MOST LIKELY TYPE OF FLOODING...HOWEVER SMALL STREAM FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
BEYOND THIS EVENT...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/DW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MET
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE/DW
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1111 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED. COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN
SUFFOLK AND SOUTHEASTERN CT AS DEFINED BY WIND SHIFT AND LOWERING
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM. SHOWERS NOW CONFINED TO LONG
ISLAND AND CT. CONVECTION IS PASSING SOUTHEAST OF KMTP.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE BASIC ELEMENTS BEING UPDATED
BASED ON TRENDS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR RUNS. ONE LARGE CHANGE WAS
MADE TO THE WINDS. RAP AND HRRR INDICATE A SEA BREEZE. AFTER THIS
NORTHERLY SURGE THAT MOVES THE FRONT TO THE EAST...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BECOMES WEAK AS SEEM BY THE CURRENTLY CALM WINDS OVER THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THUS...EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING FOR A SEA BREEZE
TO DEVELOP.
AS FOR PCPN...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF AN ISOLATED TSTMS...THOUGH THINK
THIS THREAT IS VERY LOW DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY ALOFT. WILL
LIKELY REMOVE THIS WITH THE 1 PM UPDATE.
THERE`S A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE AIR MASS
GRADUALLY DRYING OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ON THE TAILS OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STATES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE JUST BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S AT
THE COAST. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK THERMAL TROUGH FRIDAY AFTN COMBINING WITH PASSAGE OF
WEAK VORT MAX COULD WORK TO TRIGGER AN ISO SHOWER OVER INTERIOR
REGIONS WITH WEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LIMITING
MOISTURE COULD ASSIST IN KEEPING THINGS DRY...AND THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THE
UPPER FLOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH THE RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
PUSHES EAST WARRANTS THE CONTINUING MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC PCPN SAT
AFTN/EVENING. MEANWHILE...AS THE HIGH LOSES ITS HOLD ON THE
NORTHEAST...WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND
GRADUALLY NUDGES TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...00Z MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE IN KEEPING THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE FROM THE REGION SO THE ACTUAL IMPACT OF THE LOW LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL TO THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED CHC
POPS FOR NOW WITH DECENT FORCING ALOFT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVES
POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. HOWEVER...IF THIS
MODEL TREND CONTINUES...COULD VERY WELL END UP SEEING A DRY WEEKEND
WITH THE PCPN HOLDING OFF INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS HOVER RIGHT AROUND NORMAL HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
COASTAL AREAS POTENTIALLY REMAINING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
VFR...EXCEPT KISP/KGON MAINLY MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
N WINDS NEAR 10 KT SUBSIDE EARLY THIS AFTN. LOOKS LIKE SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP MID-AFTN.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: -SHRA AND MVFR COULD LAST THROUGH 17Z. TIMING
OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR...HOWEVER MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
SHRA/TSTM WEST OF A LINE FROM WESTERN CT TO CENTRAL LONG ISLAND.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS LONGER
INTO THIS EVENING...FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN RIGHT
AROUND 5 FT WITH A SLY WIND WAVE. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS BY FRIDAY WILL KEEP SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...COULD
SEE INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE EAST OF NYC
TODAY WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE
THE MOST LIKELY TYPE OF FLOODING...HOWEVER SMALL STREAM FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
BEYOND THIS EVENT...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/DW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MET
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE/DW
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
233 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...THRU FRI NIGHT...AS THE HI-RES MODELS WERE
INDICATING...THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN S OF I-10 CORRIDOR DIMINISHED
WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG FL/GA BORDER. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE COVERAGE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR
AND FAR SE GA....WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION. CLOUDS AND PRECIP HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN IN MID/UPR 80S
THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AND LOW TEMPS IN UPR 60S INTERIOR TO
LOWER/MID 70S COAST...AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS THU/FRI...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED THU AND FRI...LWR 90S INTERIOR...
AROUND 90 EASTERN COUNTIES WITH UPR 80S COAST.
.LONG TERM...SAT THRU TUE...MOISTURE INCREASES OVER WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK WHILE WEAK UPR TROF PARKS OVER SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS
SHOULD BRING BACK DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
NOT MUCH SEEN IN TERMS OF SUBSTANTIAL WARMING THIS PERIOD...WITH
HIGH TEMPS REMAINING UPR 80S COAST TO LOWER 90S WELL INLAND...LOW
TEMPS LOWER 70S INLAND/MID 70S COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
TAFS SHOW CLEARING DURING EVENING. DID NOT SHOW LOW CLOUDINESS
DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS EVERYTHING
VFR...HOWEVER...THE HRRR CEILING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP 08-12Z ACROSS NE FL. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL FOR SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH GENERALLY
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 67 91 68 93 / 20 10 0 10
SSI 74 87 75 87 / 60 10 10 10
JAX 72 90 72 91 / 60 20 10 10
SGJ 74 87 74 87 / 50 20 20 10
GNV 71 91 69 91 / 40 20 20 10
OCF 72 91 71 91 / 50 20 20 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WOLF/SANDRIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1025 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED THE HOURLY POP GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES
MODEL DATA...THE WRF NMM...ARW...AND HRRR ALL SHOW A SIMILAR TREND
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/FEW T-STORMS S OF I-10 THIS MORNING...DECREASING
IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A BAND OF T-STORMS DEVELOPS ALONG
BOUNDARY OVER SRN GA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWING THIS TREND IN HOURLY
POPS...WITH BAND OF LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SRN GA
INTO THE JAX AREA. CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN MID
80S FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY VCINITY OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLC
WATERS OF SE GA/NE FL WITH SEAS IN THE 2-5 FT RANGE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAIN THREAT STILL OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS/LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL
KEEP SCEC HEADLINES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. MODEL DIFFS START TO
APPEAR ON THURSDAY AS NAM TRIES TO DEVELOP LOW OFFSHORE WITH DECENT
NE WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS DEVELOPING WHILE GFS HAS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE LAND AREAS AND WEAK FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
ALTHOUGH THE NAM LOW IS AN OUTLIER WE DID NOT WANT TO DISCOUNT IT
COMPLETELY. WE BLENDED SOME OF THE NAM IN WITH THE GFS TO COME UP
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FOR NOW.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 86 67 92 66 / 60 50 10 0
SSI 85 74 89 76 / 60 60 10 0
JAX 86 71 91 70 / 70 60 20 10
SGJ 85 74 88 75 / 80 50 20 10
GNV 85 71 91 69 / 100 40 10 10
OCF 85 72 91 71 / 90 50 20 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WOLF/SANDRIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
952 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.UPDATE...
RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTING EASTWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PARKED OVER
THE EASTERN STATES THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SSW FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAVE GENERATED A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NNERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE FEATURES AND GENERALLY INDICATE THE
WET PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID-WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE. OUTSIDE OF A FEW REPORTS OF WATERSPOUTS AND HEAVY SHOWERS
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS...CONDITIONS HAVE
REMAINED FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH AND DAYTIME HEATING/PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER WET AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THE
MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT MIAMI REFLECTS THIS POTENTIAL AND
SHOWS A MOIST PROFILE WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING AROUND THE 2"
MARK AND MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS WESTERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY SETTING UP AND
FOCUSING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA AND TOWARD THE
EAST COAST ONCE AGAIN. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SHOWED SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO TRIGGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THESE
EASTERN AREAS AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WSW LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY MAY YIELD THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FURTHER
EASTWARD TOWARD AND COAST AND ACROSS THE METRO LOCATIONS THROUGH
THIS TIME TODAY. CONSIDERING THE ACTIVITY OVER THESE AREAS IN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...FLOODING COULD QUICKLY BE REALIZED OVER THE
MORE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS TODAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST PACKAGE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
85/AG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014/
AVIATION...
THE WESTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAY. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND. SOME DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR NEAR THE
KEYS IS ALSO FORECAST TO PUSH NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION...WHICH COULD MAKE IT LESS ACTIVE OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND NEAR KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION AND MOVE ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS. PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 17-19Z FOR THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES WHEN THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP...BUT
STORMS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS 15-16Z. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO WIND DOWN
BY THE EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE HAS NOW ESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND WILL REMAIN IN THAT POSITION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DISPLACEMENT
OF THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY BUT
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH LIFTING OUT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY WILL MAINTAIN THE SOUTHERN POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE STILL NOT LOOKING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH MEAGER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE SURFACE
DIABATIC HEATING IS AT ITS MAXIMUM CANNOT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO
STORMS BECOMING STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND. BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER IN THEIR
EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
HOWEVER, THEY STILL SHOW THE RIDGE INCHING ITS WAY BACK TO THE
NORTH. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY WITH THE STEERING FLOW VERY WEAK WITH
SEA BREEZE DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL REVERTING TO THE INTERIOR AND THE
WEST COAST.
MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 76 91 76 / 70 40 60 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 79 92 78 / 70 40 50 30
MIAMI 89 78 92 78 / 60 30 50 20
NAPLES 90 76 90 77 / 40 20 50 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
215 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO SET UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY DROPPING AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DRYING IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH A LARGE
WEST TO EAST PW GRADIENT...LESS THAN 0.9 INCHES IN THE FAR UPSTATE
TO OVER 2.00 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z SPC WRF AND 15Z HRRR DISPLAY JUST
ISOLATED COVERAGE. ALL OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE POPS 20 PERCENT
OR LESS. HAVE FURTHER DECREASED THE VERY LOW POPS WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS CLOSER TO THE DEEPER
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SETS UP DURING THE DAY AND MOISTURE
BEGING TO RETURN TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT HAVE POP FOR
FRIDAY BUT WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. WILL
HAVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AND LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE H5 TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE THE REMNANTS
OF THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
POPS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS
MAINLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND
CONTINUED DRYING WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
CLOUDS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BE BECOME
LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AT OGB...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE
MOMENT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1022 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND WILL
BE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING FURTHER DRYING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE IMAGERY AT 14Z SHOWS INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE CWA AND WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM OGB TO AGS.
FRONT SHOULD BE TROUGH THE CWA BY NOON. DRYING IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WITH A LARGE WEST TO EAST PW GRADIENT...LESS THAN 0.9
INCHES IN THE FAR UPSTATE TO OVER 2.00 INCHES ALONG THE COAST.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL CAPPING. THE 00Z
SPC WRF AND 07Z HRRR DISPLAY JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE. ALL OF THE
NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. WE MAINTAINED THE
VERY LOW POPS MAINLY IN THE EAST PART CLOSER TO THE DEEPER
MOISTURE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OFFSHORE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND MID-LEVEL CAPPING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS ARE LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. WE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE H5 TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE THE REMNANTS
OF THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
POPS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT
POPS MAINLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED DRYING WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
741 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT LINGERING IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING FURTHER DRYING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT LINGERING IN THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
CHANCE APPEARS LOW. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT INDICATING DRYING
BEHIND A LEAD MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL CAPPING. THE 00Z SPC WRF
AND 07Z HRRR DISPLAY JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE. ALL OF THE NAM AND
GFS MOS HAVE POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. WE MAINTAINED THE VERY LOW
POPS MAINLY IN THE EAST PART CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OFFSHORE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND MID-LEVEL CAPPING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS ARE LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. WE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE H5 TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE THE REMNANTS
OF THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
POPS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT
POPS MAINLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA EARLY
THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. FOG THREAT IS NOT AN ISSUE
THIS MORNING DUE TO CLOUDS...BUT SOME MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR STRATUS MAY
LINGER UNTIL AROUND 14Z. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES AFTER 14Z. EXPECT CONTINUED DRYING WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
610 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT LINGERING IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING FURTHER DRYING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT LINGERING IN THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
CHANCE APPEARS LOW. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT INDICATING DRYING
BEHIND A LEAD MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL CAPPING. THE 00Z SPC WRF
AND 07Z HRRR DISPLAY JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE. ALL OF THE NAM AND
GFS MOS HAVE POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. WE MAINTAINED THE VERY LOW
POPS MAINLY IN THE EAST PART CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OFFSHORE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND MID-LEVEL CAPPING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS ARE LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. WE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE H5 TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE THE REMNANTS
OF THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
POPS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT
POPS MAINLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA EARLY
THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. FOG THREAT IS NOT AN ISSUE
THIS MORNING DUE TO CLOUDS...BUT SOME MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR STRATUS MAY
LINGER UNTIL AROUND 14Z. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES AFTER 14Z. EXPECT CONTINUED DRYING WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1230 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
326 AM CDT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF METEOROLOGICALLY BORING WEATHER IS ON TAP
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WHICH WILL BE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE WANTING
DRIER WEATHER IDEAL FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANKS OF
THE LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW TODAY...BUT WITH CONTINUED
HEIGHT RISES AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE
SPOTTY/BRIEF AT WORST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY BUT
GENERALLY A COUPLE DEGREES MILDER THAN YESTERDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE
FRONT WHERE IT SHOULD BE DAY 1 OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A 7+ DAY STRETCH
OF LAKE BREEZES.
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OUT AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AND END OF THE WEEK WITH A TRANSITION A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THE RESULT
WILL BE GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE THREAT OF
PRECIP THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN A RETURN TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY. WILL BRIEFLY MENTION THAT THE 00Z WRF-NAM IS A STRONG AND
NORTHERLY OUTLIER WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY...AND GIVEN THE STRONG GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS TOWARD A FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER SOLUTION FELT
COMFORTABLE DISCOUNTING THE NAM.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT AND A
FEW GUSTS EARLY NEAR 15-19 KT...EASING DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.
* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST KEEPING SYNOPTIC WINDS LIGHT OVER THE
TERMINALS. AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE SHORE AREA
WILL HELP TO DRIVE A LAKE BREEZE AND NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS EASING MID AFTERNOON. WIND
DIRECTION SHOULD BE VARIABLE AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE IS AGAIN LIKELY TO DEVELOP THURSDAY HOWEVER
ITS PROGRESSION INLAND IS DIFFICULT TO GAUGE AT THIS POINT. THIS
COULD REACH MDW IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND ORD LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
JUST SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN TRACON AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM IN TIMING OF NORTHEAST WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.
* LOW IN WHETHER LAKE BREEZE WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
221 AM CDT
MARINE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE RELATIVELY FEW...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY WORKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND SPREADS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...THE MIDWEST AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST BY FRIDAY TO ALLOW
MODEST SOUTH WINDS ON THE LAKE...THOUGH DILUTED BY AFTERNOON LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EVEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACK
REMAINS ACROSS CANADA AND MORE ENHANCED SOUTH FLOW REMAINS FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN LAKES AND INTO ONTARIO.
IN THE NEAR TERM...WEAK TROUGH/CONVERGENT BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A LINGERING ISOLATED WATERSPOUT THREAT TOWARD
THE EASTERN SHORE. TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT BY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
MORE STABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHERWISE...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
OVER THE IL/IND NEARSHORE WATERS (GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT)...WITH
WAVES AT MICHIGAN CITY BUOY 45170 DOWN TO 3 FT AS OF 2 AM CDT AND
THUS WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE WITH 4 AM CDT NSH
ISSUANCE.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1009 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014
Starting to see diurnal cumulus developing over the last 15-30
minutes as expected. Based on the RAP layer humidity plots and the
fact that the core of the colder air has shifted to the northeast,
am thinking that the cumulus will not be as widespread as
yesterday, so have made some downward adjustments to the cloud
cover to indicate some more sunshine. Had to make some adjustments
to the highs across the western CWA, which has already reached the
70 degree range at 10 am, but the eastern CWA temperatures are
largely on track.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014
Diurnal cumulus rapidly developed around 15Z and has risen in
height to around 4500 feet or so. Coverage expected to be
scattered or occasionally broken this afternoon, before rapidly
diminishing toward early evening. Similar trends expected tomorrow
morning.
Northerly winds expected to become light and variable tonight as
high pressure drifts overhead.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 309 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday
Unseasonably deep upper low currently centered over southwest
Quebec will gradually lose its influence on the weather across
central Illinois over the next couple of days. As upper heights
slowly rise and air mass modification takes place, temperatures
will warm a few degrees each day. Afternoon highs today will only
reach the lower to middle 70s, but will rise to around 80 degrees
by Friday.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday
The warming trend will continue through the extended, with
temperatures returning to the upper 80s to around 90 degrees early
next week. Precipitation chances will remain negligible through the
period. There is still some question about the exact track of an
upper-level short-wave currently evident on water vapor imagery
over eastern Montana. This feature is progged to drop
southeastward into the southern Plains on Thursday, then track
E/NE into the Tennessee River Valley by the end of the week. With
the exception of the outlier NAM, the 00z Jul 18 model suite is in
fairly good agreement with keeping precip associated with this
wave to the S/SE of central Illinois. ECMWF/GEM both brush the far
SE KILX CWA with some precip on Saturday, so have included slight
chance PoPs south of I-70 at that time. This wave is expected to
become nearly stationary across the Ohio/Tennessee River valleys
early next week, with most of the associated precip occurring
along/east of the trough axis across Indiana and Ohio. GFS
splashes QPF across the eastern half of Illinois on both Sunday
and Monday, but think this is overdone and not worth mentioning in
the forecast. After that, upper ridge builds in earnest across the
Southern Rockies, placing the Midwest in a northwesterly flow
pattern. Have added slight chance PoPs to the forecast Tuesday
night into Wednesday, as MCS activity becomes increasingly likely
by the middle of next week.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1115 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
326 AM CDT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF METEOROLOGICALLY BORING WEATHER IS ON TAP
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WHICH WILL BE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE WANTING
DRIER WEATHER IDEAL FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANKS OF
THE LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW TODAY...BUT WITH CONTINUED
HEIGHT RISES AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE
SPOTTY/BRIEF AT WORST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY BUT
GENERALLY A COUPLE DEGREES MILDER THAN YESTERDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE
FRONT WHERE IT SHOULD BE DAY 1 OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A 7+ DAY STRETCH
OF LAKE BREEZES.
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OUT AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AND END OF THE WEEK WITH A TRANSITION A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THE RESULT
WILL BE GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE THREAT OF
PRECIP THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN A RETURN TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY. WILL BRIEFLY MENTION THAT THE 00Z WRF-NAM IS A STRONG AND
NORTHERLY OUTLIER WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY...AND GIVEN THE STRONG GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS TOWARD A FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER SOLUTION FELT
COMFORTABLE DISCOUNTING THE NAM.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* NORTH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT AND
POSSIBLY AROUND 12 KT.
RATZER/MTF
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RELEASE ITS INFLUENCE
ON WEATHER ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH A SUBTLE
TROUGH PASSAGE BRINGING A PATCH OF VFR CIGS AND A SHIFT TO NORTH
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SPREADING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FACTOR ON
LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAKER GRADIENT WITH APPROACH OF
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING...AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A MORE NORTHEAST COMPONENT TO WIND NEAR 10 KT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND CONTINUE TO VEER EAST-SOUTHEAST BY
EVENING...THEN DIMINISH BELOW 5 KT OVERNIGHT.
WITH LINGERING COOL AIR ALOFT...VFR CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING...THOUGH WILL SCATTER OUT AS STABLE MARINE AIR
SPREADS IN WITH LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH IN TIMING OF AFTERNOON WINDS AND MEDIUM IN SPEEDS.
RATZER/MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
221 AM CDT
MARINE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE RELATIVELY FEW...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY WORKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND SPREADS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...THE MIDWEST AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST BY FRIDAY TO ALLOW
MODEST SOUTH WINDS ON THE LAKE...THOUGH DILUTED BY AFTERNOON LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EVEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACK
REMAINS ACROSS CANADA AND MORE ENHANCED SOUTH FLOW REMAINS FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN LAKES AND INTO ONTARIO.
IN THE NEAR TERM...WEAK TROUGH/CONVERGENT BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A LINGERING ISOLATED WATERSPOUT THREAT TOWARD
THE EASTERN SHORE. TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT BY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
MORE STABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHERWISE...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
OVER THE IL/IND NEARSHORE WATERS (GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT)...WITH
WAVES AT MICHIGAN CITY BUOY 45170 DOWN TO 3 FT AS OF 2 AM CDT AND
THUS WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE WITH 4 AM CDT NSH
ISSUANCE.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1014 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1009 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014
Starting to see diurnal cumulus developing over the last 15-30
minutes as expected. Based on the RAP layer humidity plots and the
fact that the core of the colder air has shifted to the northeast,
am thinking that the cumulus will not be as widespread as
yesterday, so have made some downward adjustments to the cloud
cover to indicate some more sunshine. Had to make some adjustments
to the highs across the western CWA, which has already reached the
70 degree range at 10 am, but the eastern CWA temperatures are
largely on track.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 619 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. CU/SC is
expected to develop again today. At SPI and DEC, and probably PIA, CU
should be scattered, but at BMI and CMI, the CU could be broken at
times. So will have TEMPO groups for these sites around the 18z
time period. Clouds will be diurnal, so should dissipate around
00z at all sites, or a little after at CMI and BMI. Winds will be
northwest, becoming northerly during the day, and then light and
variable tonight.
Auten
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 309 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday
Unseasonably deep upper low currently centered over southwest
Quebec will gradually lose its influence on the weather across
central Illinois over the next couple of days. As upper heights
slowly rise and air mass modification takes place, temperatures
will warm a few degrees each day. Afternoon highs today will only
reach the lower to middle 70s, but will rise to around 80 degrees
by Friday.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday
The warming trend will continue through the extended, with
temperatures returning to the upper 80s to around 90 degrees early
next week. Precipitation chances will remain negligible through the
period. There is still some question about the exact track of an
upper-level short-wave currently evident on water vapor imagery
over eastern Montana. This feature is progged to drop
southeastward into the southern Plains on Thursday, then track
E/NE into the Tennessee River Valley by the end of the week. With
the exception of the outlier NAM, the 00z Jul 18 model suite is in
fairly good agreement with keeping precip associated with this
wave to the S/SE of central Illinois. ECMWF/GEM both brush the far
SE KILX CWA with some precip on Saturday, so have included slight
chance PoPs south of I-70 at that time. This wave is expected to
become nearly stationary across the Ohio/Tennessee River valleys
early next week, with most of the associated precip occurring
along/east of the trough axis across Indiana and Ohio. GFS
splashes QPF across the eastern half of Illinois on both Sunday
and Monday, but think this is overdone and not worth mentioning in
the forecast. After that, upper ridge builds in earnest across the
Southern Rockies, placing the Midwest in a northwesterly flow
pattern. Have added slight chance PoPs to the forecast Tuesday
night into Wednesday, as MCS activity becomes increasingly likely
by the middle of next week.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1146 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS GOVE COUNTY BUT GIVEN
MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EVEN A LITTLE
HEATING THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...HAVE KEPT MINIMAL POPS IN
FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE
SOMEWHERE. HRRR SUPPORTS THIS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT PRECIP INDICATED
THROUGH 00Z. THE HRRR HAS HANDLED TODAYS PRECIP EVOLUTION FAIRLY
WELL.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
THIS EVENING GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE GFS SEEMS TO BLOW
UP A SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THIS EVENING AND HOLD IT TOGETHER
ALL THE WAY INTO SW KANSAS. THAT SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY AND
PREFER THE SREF FOR PRECIP TIMING AND EVOLUTION THIS EVENING.
THINKING BETTER PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT ARE WITH THE WELL-
DEVELOPED UPPER LOW NOW CROSSING MONTANA. THAT FEATURE WILL
GENERATE A DECENT ROUND OF PRECIP BUT LIKELY NOT BEFORE 06Z IN OUR
COUNTIES. AGAIN...WENT BASICALLY WITH AN SREF EVOLUTION OF PRECIP WHICH
BRINGS SHRA/TSRA SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT WITH AN EMPHASIS IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA TOMORROW.
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS THE NEXT 36 HOURS...KEEPING MID 50S
OVERNIGHT GIVEN CLOUD COVER...INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S...AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 60S ON
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
HAVE TRANSITIONED THE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS A RESULT MAINLY OF THE SURFACE WINDS TRANSITIONING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TO A MORE EAST/NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WHICH FAVORS
MORE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
FELT STRONGLY ENOUGH ABOUT THE AVAILABLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VORTICITY MAX AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM 700MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALOFT IN THE SUBSIDENT AREA BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH THE COOL AIRMASS EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S ON
FRIDAY.
EXPECT THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BECOMING WARMER
THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO AN INITIALLY MORE
ZONAL FLOW AND THEN INTO A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION BY TUESDAY.
ALSO EXPECT A TRANSITION INTO A MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN LATE DAY AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE THEREFORE
EITHER HINTED AT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK INCREASE IN POPS
OR HAVE PUT IN ISOLATED OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH LATE DAY TO
OVERNIGHT PERIODS IN DAYS 5 THROUGH 7.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS PERIODS OF LOW STRATUS...RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. CURRENTLY SEEING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70...WITH STORM MOTIONS AND CAPE/CINH FIELDS SUGGESTING
THIS WILL NOT IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SEEING SEVERAL WEAK ECHOES DEVELOP NEAR THE MCK AREA...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z SO WOULD ONLY
EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACT LIGHT SHOWERS UNTIL THEN. STILL A GREAT DEAL
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
KEPT THE GENERAL IDEA OF MORNING PRECIP...AN EARLY AFTERNOON LULL
AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1053 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
.AVIATION...
RAIN HAS COME TO AN END AT THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF RAIN LIKELY EXITING THE TXK TERMINAL SHORTLY AFTER THE 06Z
HOUR. THIS IS A MAJOR CHANGE IN TERMINAL FORECASTING THINKING
COMPARED TO THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE WHEN IT APPEARED THAT SHRA/TSRA
WOULD BE AFFECTING ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO THE LFK TERMINAL
ONLY...CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. ELSEWHERE...JUST LOOKING AT LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH VSBYS MOSTLY IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE AND
CEILINGS MOSTLY IFR.
FOR THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS...KEPT THE ABOVE THINKING WITH
THE HRRR SUGGESTING WE WILL SEE CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REMAINING TERMINALS AFTER THE 12Z FRI HOUR.
OBVIOUSLY...CONVECTION WILL HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER AT THE MLU
TERMINAL. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT ON FRIDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST BUT THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY VARIABLE NEAR 5KTS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY NEAR 5-10KTS WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014/
DISCUSSION...
MAJOR UPDATE FOR THIS EVENING AS THE HEAVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED SOUTH.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE CANCELLATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...QFP AND POP GRIDS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO SHOW THIS TREND. DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO ADJACENT WESTERN
LOUISIANA WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS GOING FORWARD...
BUT AMOUNTS AND RAINFALL RATES DO NOT LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A
WATCH ATTM. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION...WITH
RAINFALL ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS HAVE ALSO BEEN UPDATED FOR TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...TO SUPPORT THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE CWA...FROM NEAR BPT TO CLL. IT MAY MOVE A LITTLE MORE
NORTH OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS UP AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT ONLY A SMALL CHANGE FROM CURRENT LEVELS.
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
/14/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 79 74 89 74 / 90 70 30 20 20
MLU 67 78 74 88 74 / 90 90 50 20 30
DEQ 64 77 70 88 72 / 80 50 10 10 10
TXK 64 76 71 87 73 / 90 60 20 10 10
ELD 65 78 72 87 73 / 90 80 30 20 20
TYR 70 81 74 90 75 / 70 50 20 10 10
GGG 69 82 74 90 75 / 80 50 20 10 10
LFK 73 85 75 92 76 / 90 80 30 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
406 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...AND DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND DRIFTS
NORTH TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES 1003MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN
QB...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
THE PIEDMONT. AS OF 07Z...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS
CREEPING INTO THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES. ALOFT...GOES WV IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE SSW FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST BETWEEN A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US...AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THAT SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS/TSTMS
IMMEDIATELY S OF THE AREA PASSING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE I-95
CORRIDOR THROUGH 7AM...BEFORE MOVING THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY
NOON. THE BOUNDARY DOES HOWEVER STALL IN VICINITY OF THE NE NC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS...THE HIGHEST POPS (50-60%) WILL BE
GENERALLY CONFINED OVER FAR SE PORTIONS TODAY. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NNE AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS.
THE SKY SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME PARTLY SUNNY OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS
MORNING...WITH INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN AREAS BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY BY
AFTERNOON...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVERCAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM LOW 80S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID 80S INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A PLEASANTLY DRY AIRMASS BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE SKY SHOULD BECOME MAINLY
CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON CU.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW...TO THE MID/UPPER
60S FAR SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY LOCATIONS BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. CLOUD COVER COULD BECOME THICKER OVER SE PORTIONS DUE TO
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND LOW PRESSURE
TO THE S. NOT ENOUGH FORCING IS EXPECTED LOCALLY TO WARRANT ANY POP
OVER SE PORTIONS (DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW) THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS FRIDAY ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER
MS VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO GET
PULLED BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND, AND WE WILL
LIKELY SEE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY KICK BACK UP INCREMENTALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE WAVY FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. KEPT A LOW (SLIGHT CHC) POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS INITIAL WAVE PUSHES ACROSS...WITH HIGHER, MORE
WIDESPREAD HIGH END CHC (40%) POP SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS, WITH A SECOND PERIOD OF (MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN) 40-50% POP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS NEXT VORT MAX
PUSHES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SET UP
OFFSHORE, BRINGING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SET UP AND WARMING
TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT MAXIMA TO AVERAGE AROUND -1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND FRI-SUN,
WITH SOME WARMING BACK TOWARDS CLIMO NORMAL MON/TUE. EARLY
MORNING LOWS WILL SETTLE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO LAVMOS WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON BOTH THE IFR
CIGS AT RIC AND CONDS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF
IFR CIGS AT RIC AND MVFR AT ECG.
NAM MOS AS WELL AS MANY OF THE HI RES MODELS DO NOT REFLECT REALITY
WHEN IT COMES TO PCPN COVERAGE WHICH HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY
OVER THE AREA. KEPT TEMPO LIGHT RAIN AT ECG NEXT FOUR
HOURS...ELSEWHERE PCPN SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED. SOME SHOWERS WILL
BE PSBL IN FAR SE ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL EVALUATE WITH THE 12Z TAF.
USED RUC FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT WHICH APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN EARLIER FORECASTS. WINDS TURN TO NW AND N WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND EVENTUALLY FROM THE NE OVER SE PORTIONS.
MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SW WINDS WERE GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SE THROUGH THE WATERS. THERE
WAS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH INFLUENCE VARIOUS
FRONTAL WAVES WILL HAVE ON THE WIND FIELD. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO A
NAM/SREF BLEND AS THE MOS GUIDE HAD TOO MUCH NOISE. BLENDED MOS
GUIDE BACK IN LATER IN THE WEEK AS IT WAS CLOSER TO CONSISTENCY.
MORE SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ENTERS THE PICTURE BEYOND SATURDAY BUT
HELD OFF ON ANY CHANGES THERE.
MODERATE NORTHERLY SURGES ARE INDICATED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS. THESE APPEAR TO REMAIN BLW SCA CRITERIA.
SEAS WERE RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT THIS MORNING WITH LTL CHANGE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MAY BUILD THESE UP ANOTHER FOOT BUT THE EAST WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING IN 5 FOOT SEAS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
219 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS COME TO AN END AND WATCH
NUMBER 423 HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THERE IS ONE LAST AREA OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING NEAR LOUISA/CAROLINE COUNTIES
THAT SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...
MOST AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING JUST RAIN WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. 12 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 2.75 INCHES FOR THIS EVENT (OBSERVATIONS TAKEN
FROM THE MESOWEST DATA NETWORK)...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS VIRGINIA TWD THE COAST
OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALSO HAVE PLENTY OF LIFT DUE
TO BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET WHICH IS LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. ALL THIS COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT MOVING IN AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH WILL
GENERATE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HRRR AND RUC
ARE DOING A GOOD JOB DEPICTING ONE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME
ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPS ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA. MODELS
SHOW ALL THESE THUNDERSTORMS JUST SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE CORFIDI VECTORS ONLY SHOW SLOW PROPAGATION ACROSS THE AREA OF
THESE STORMS. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCATIONS.
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AS MANY AREAS HAVE
BEEN QUITE DRY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AS THIS
COULD BE THE ONE AREA THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD ALSO PULSE UP AND BECOME SEVERE BUT THE BEST SHEAR IS MAINLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER SUNSET THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S
WHICH MATCHES MOSGUIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT
THE SHOWERS TO END DURING THE EARLY MORNING IN THE WEST BUT TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO FINALLY END OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE EAST
WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 80 BUT OUT WEST WHERE THE SUN DOES COME OUT
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. IF CLOUDS LINGER IN THE
WEST THE HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY SOME
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MOST OF THIS MOISTURE TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA SO STILL EXPECT A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY.
FOLLOWED MOSGUIDE WITH HIGHS SLOWLY WARMING FROM THE MID 80S
THURSDAY TO NEAR 90 BY FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 60S POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
50S WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT ALL AREAS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO GET PULLED
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND, AND WE WILL LIKELY
SEE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY KICK BACK UP INCREMENTALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE WAVY FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. KEPT A LOW (SLIGHT CHC) POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS INITIAL WAVE PUSHES ACROSS...WITH HIGHER, MORE
WIDESPREAD HIGH END CHC (40%) POP SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS, WITH A SECOND PERIOD OF (MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN) 40-50% POP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS NEXT VORT MAX
PUSHES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SET UP
OFFSHORE, BRINGING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SET UP AND WARMING
TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT MAXIMA TO AVERAGE AROUND -1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND FRI-SUN,
WITH SOME WARMING BACK TOWARDS CLIMO NORMAL MON/TUE. EARLY
MORNING LOWS WILL SETTLE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO LAVMOS WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON BOTH THE IFR
CIGS AT RIC AND CONDS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF
IFR CIGS AT RIC AND MVFR AT ECG.
NAM MOS AS WELL AS MANY OF THE HI RES MODELS DO NOT REFLECT REALITY
WHEN IT COMES TO PCPN COVERAGE WHICH HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY
OVER THE AREA. KEPT TEMPO LIGHT RAIN AT ECG NEXT FOUR
HOURS...ELSEWHERE PCPN SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED. SOME SHOWERS WILL
BE PSBL IN FAR SE ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL EVALUATE WITH THE 12Z TAF.
USED RUC FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT WHICH APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN EARLIER FORECASTS. WINDS TURN TO NW AND N WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND EVENTUALLY FROM THE NE OVER SE PORTIONS.
MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SCA CRITERIA THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS REMAINING JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN THE BAY
AND SOUND. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN OFFSHORE SFC
HIGH...PREFRONTAL COASTAL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE WATERS, AND COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS TOWARD
12-15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF SCA EPISODE OVER THE BAY WITH WATER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE BAY CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES BUT
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE.
ONSHORE (E-NE) FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK (LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY) AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER
PORTION OF THE 20NM ZONES BUT HELD IT TO 4 FT OR LESS AT THIS
POINT. WINDS TURN AROUND TOWARDS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAB
NEAR TERM...BMD/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
159 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION/HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE AREA WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF COOL AIR AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FLOATING AROUND AS LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS
FAIRLY LOW THAT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL SEE RAINFALL.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
I UPDATED THE ZONES AND GRIDS TO REFLECT 30 TO 40 PCT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EAST OF US-131 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS BASED ON A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. RUC13 MODEL SOUNDING AT 14Z SHOW
WEAK CAPE... AROUND 150 J/KG ...WITH CLOUD TOP VALUES OF 25,000
FT. THAT IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS. ACTUALLY
IF WE GOT THOSE 25,000 FT CLOUD TOPS WE MAY EVEN SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE -20C HEIGHT IS NEAR 20,000 FT. HOWEVER THE
AIR ABOVE 15,000 IS RATHER DRY SO I DO NOT THINK TO MAY SHOWERS
WILL GET ECHO TOPS THAT HIGH. ALSO OVER TIME THE AIR ABOVE 15,000
DRYS OUT EVEN FARTHER SO BY LATE AFTERNOON IT WOULD BE MORE
UNLIKELY TO HAVE THAT THEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST IS FINE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 803 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW TWO BOUNDARIES: ONE EXTENDING
FROM MARSHALL NORTHWEST TO MUSKEGON...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING
NORTHWEST THROUGH BENTON HARBOR INTO LAKE MICHIGAN. BOTH OF THESE
BOUNDARIES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...TOOK SPRINKLES OUT
OF THE FORECAST NORTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES FOR THE REST OF THIS
MORNING. STILL EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE ONLY WEATHER OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE RESIDUAL
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS TODAY. UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE MAIN UPPER LOW
HAS MOVED WELL NE OF THE AREA...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL WAVES HAVE
DROPPED IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF IT OVER THE AREA KEEPING THE CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE. THIS IS BRINGING DOWN A DECK OF CLOUDS INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE PATTERN HAS TRANSITIONED TO WHERE MOST ALL PCPN IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES FLOATING THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT HAVING MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA IS LIMITING THE VERTICAL GROWTH OF ANY UPDRAFT THAT GETS GOING.
THIS LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND ALSO THE INTENSITY.
WE EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE THE LITTLE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP TODAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME
ANTI-CYCLONIC TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ALONG THE MI/IN AND THE
SHORT WAVE NEAR GRAND TRAVERSE BAY THIS A.M. ROTATE TO THE EAST AND
TAKE THE UPPER JET CORE WITH THEM.
THE PERIOD FROM THU THROUGH FRI THEN LOOKS DRY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE WITH WARMING TEMPS. A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER TO JUST A LITTLE FLAT
CU AT WORST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS ALOFT AT H850 WARM
A BIT EACH DAY. H850 TEMPS APPROACH 12C BY FRI AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS APPROACHING 80 BY FRI AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
KEPT OVERALL LOW PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THIS...HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS NOTED
PREVIOUSLY...THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXIST
TUESDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW
FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHEN SIGNIFICANT LARGE
SCALE FORCING IS LACKING AND MESOSCALE EFFECTS TEND TO DOMINATE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
REACHING THE MID 80S BY TUESDAY...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. A STRAY SHOWER
MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD AT KLAN AND KJXN. A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT THIS WOULD BE FAR TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. THESE POP UP SHOWERS ARE DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ROTATING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP AROUND 9 KTS THROUGH 23Z
BEFORE SUBSIDING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN
WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DRY OUT...SO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
I DROPPED THE WATER SPOUTS FROM THE FORECAST AS THE WATER SPOUT
NOMOGRAM SUGGESTS WE NEED CONVECTIVE DEPTHS NEAR 25,000 FT...
WHICH WE CLEARLY WILL NOT HAVE (SEE UPDATE DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR
DETAILS ON THAT).
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE LONE
RIVER FLOOD ADVISORY IS FOR THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS. THE
MAPLE RIVER WILL STEADILY FALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1108 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE AREA WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF COOL AIR AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FLOATING AROUND AS LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS
FAIRLY LOW THAT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL SEE RAINFALL.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
I UPDATED THE ZONES AND GRIDS TO REFLECT 30 TO 40 PCT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EAST OF US-131 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS BASED ON A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. RUC13 MODEL SOUNDING AT 14Z SHOW
WEAK CAPE... AROUND 150 J/KG ...WITH CLOUD TOP VALUES OF 25,000
FT. THAT IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS. ACTUALLY
IF WE GOT THOSE 25,000 FT CLOUD TOPS WE MAY EVEN SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE -20C HEIGHT IS NEAR 20,000 FT. HOWEVER THE
AIR ABOVE 15,000 IS RATHER DRY SO I DO NOT THINK TO MAY SHOWERS
WILL GET ECHO TOPS THAT HIGH. ALSO OVER TIME THE AIR ABOVE 15,000
DRYS OUT EVEN FARTHER SO BY LATE AFTERNOON IT WOULD BE MORE
UNLIKELY TO HAVE THAT THEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST IS FINE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 803 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW TWO BOUNDARIES: ONE EXTENDING
FROM MARSHALL NORTHWEST TO MUSKEGON...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING
NORTHWEST THROUGH BETON HARBOR INTO LAKE MICHIGAN. BOTH OF THESE
BOUNDARIES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...TOOK SPRINKLES OUT
OF THE FORECAST NORTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES FOR THE REST OF THIS
MORNING. STILL EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE ONLY WEATHER OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE RESIDUAL
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS TODAY. UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE MAIN UPPER LOW
HAS MOVED WELL NE OF THE AREA...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL WAVES HAVE
DROPPED IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF IT OVER THE AREA KEEPING THE CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE. THIS IS BRINGING DOWN A DECK OF CLOUDS INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE PATTERN HAS TRANSITIONED TO WHERE MOST ALL PCPN IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES FLOATING THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT HAVING MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA IS LIMITING THE VERTICAL GROWTH OF ANY UPDRAFT THAT GETS GOING.
THIS LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND ALSO THE INTENSITY.
WE EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE THE LITTLE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP TODAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME
ANTI-CYCLONIC TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ALONG THE MI/IN AND THE
SHORT WAVE NEAR GRAND TRAVERSE BAY THIS A.M. ROTATE TO THE EAST AND
TAKE THE UPPER JET CORE WITH THEM.
THE PERIOD FROM THU THROUGH FRI THEN LOOKS DRY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE WITH WARMING TEMPS. A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER TO JUST A LITTLE FLAT
CU AT WORST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS ALOFT AT H850 WARM
A BIT EACH DAY. H850 TEMPS APPROACH 12C BY FRI AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS APPROACHING 80 BY FRI AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
KEPT OVERALL LOW PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THIS...HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS NOTED
PREVIOUSLY...THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXIST
TUESDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW
FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHEN SIGNIFICANT LARGE
SCALE FORCING IS LACKING AND MESOSCALE EFFECTS TEND TO DOMINATE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
REACHING THE MID 80S BY TUESDAY...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING SHOULD RAPIDLY LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. CIGS THIS MORNING SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
THE FUEL ALTERNATE THRESHOLD OF 2000 FT...WITH PERHAPS A VERY
BRIEF EXCURSION BELOW 2000 FT AT THE LAN AND JXN TERMINALS BEFORE
14Z. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH VFR PREDOMINATING EVEN
IN THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
I DROPPED THE WATER SPOUTS FROM THE FORECAST AS THE WATER SPOUT
NONOGRAM SUGGESTS WE NEED CONVECTIVE DEPTHS NEAR 25,000 FT...
WHICH WE CLEARLY WILL NOT HAVE (SEE UPDATE DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR
DETAILS ON THAT).
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
906 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
SMALL CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPEATURES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
CURRNET OBS. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME POSSIBLE FOG TONIGHT BUT IT
SHOULD BE LOCALIZED. MODELS CONSISTENT IN FIRST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. NEXT SHOT WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ALSO...IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. REST OF FCST
UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BOLSTERED BY THE WEAK
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE COOL NIGHTS OF NEGLIGIBLE WIND AND LOW DEWPOINTS. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY BRIEF AND ISOLATED FOG ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND TONIGHT. MODEL SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT AND WILL LET THE
EVENING SHIFT REEVALUATE.
FRIDAY WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH, WITH THE HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS OVER NE MINNESOTA. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH AROUND 25
MPH DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS
INDICATING SIMILAR HIGHS AS TO TODAY...BUT LEANED ON THE WARMER
NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BASED ON TRENDS SEEN THE
PAST FEW SHIFTS IN MODEL PERFORMANCE...THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS...AND THAT THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
AN INCREASING SW FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE/H85 TROUGH TRACKING ALONG THE BORDERLAND. HAVE
KEPT SMALL POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT/SAT NIGHT AS LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE TROUGH...WITH AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE...SWEEPS ACROSS NRN
MINNESOTA/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
GULF PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING H85 TEMPS AROUND 20 C TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME. HAVE CONFINED
POPS TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...AS LATEST
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG WARM NOSE AROUND H80 THAT SHOULD
LIMIT CONVECTION IN AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR.
LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...AS SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES ROUND THE TOP OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WRN CONUS/ROCKIES AND TRACK ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE IMPULSES WILL BRING A
BETTER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE LARGE
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH THIS FAR OUT SO HAVE CONTINUED
TO CARRY BROADBRUSH CHC POPS THROUGH EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT CDT THU JUL 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TAF SITS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR/IFR CONDTIONS IN POSSIBLE FOG AT
THE AIRPORTS BUT IT SHOULD BE LOCALIZED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 57 79 59 78 / 0 0 0 30
INL 57 82 63 80 / 10 0 50 30
BRD 59 81 64 81 / 0 0 30 30
HYR 55 81 60 81 / 10 0 0 10
ASX 56 80 59 81 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...STEWART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
937 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 917 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
Weak shortwaves moving southeastward through southeastern KS, southern
MO, OK and AR will continue to bring mid-high level cloudiness to
our forecast area for the remainder of tonight. Some of the light
showers across southwestern MO may move through southeastern MO
late tonight, although the operational models keep their qpf south
of our forecast area. The latest HRRR model run does have a few
light showers moving through southeast MO, mainly between 09-12z
Friday. Low temperatures will be slightly warmer tonight than the
previous night, although still below normal.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer tonight compared to last
night due to increased mid/high level clouds, but overnight lows
will still be around 5-10 degrees below average for mid-July.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
An upper vort max moving through MO/AR could spread some light rain
showers into southern/southeastern MO and southern/southwest IL
tonight and tomorrow, however the bulk of the precip should remain
south of the CWA. In general, a slow warming and moistening trend is
expected over the weekend with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s
by Sunday.
A strong western CONUS high pressure center is forecast to build
into the plains by the end of the weekend, placing MO/IL along the
eastern periphery of the ridge and under northwest flow aloft for a
few days during the early part of next week. Models depict a couple
of shortwaves moving through the flow which could support SHRA/TSRA,
but the predictability of such features tends to be low this far in
advance. There are some suggestions that a synoptic cold front could
move into MO/IL on Wed and provide a focus for afternoon/eve
SHRA/TSRA, but there are significant model differences regarding the
large scale pattern east of the ridge axis after 00z Mon. The 17/00z
ECMWF eventually develops a deep meridional H5 trough extending from
Lake Superior through MS while the 17/12z GFS develops a trough
closer to the East Coast. This forecast package generally follows
the recommended CR initialization for Sunday night through Thursday,
which yields seasonably warm and humid conditions.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
VFR flight conditions and light east-southeast flow will continue
through the period as a surface high continues to control the
weather. An upper level disturbance will continue to produce mid-
high level cloudiness as it passes to the south of the area.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions and light east-southeast flow will continue
to prevail. An upper level disturbance will bring mid-high level
clouds to the region as it passes south of the area.
Carney
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014
Here are the records for low temperature and low maximum temperature at
the primary climate sites.
LOW 7/17 LO MAX 7/17
St. Louis 57(1976) 76(1938)
Columbia 53(1976) 73(1938)
Quincy 54(1941) 72(1958)
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1229 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE RAP AND NAM SHOW NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY TODAY...750MB
CAPE...AND RADAR INDICATES TSTMS ACROSS ERN COLO WHERE THIS
INSTABILITY IS FCST TO BE. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST.
ALSO...WE ARE NOT GETTING NEARLY THE RADAR COVERAGE THE MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST WITH THE QPF. SO A 50-50 BLEND OF RAP-OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN PLACE WHICH LOWERS THE POP BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT FOR
MORE SCATTERED RAIN COVERAGE VS LIKELY IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...RESIDENT MCV ACROSS ERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE SHOULD
DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING PRODUCING REASONABLE RAIN FROM
KAIA-KOGA-KIML. SOME SOLNS LIKE THE GEM AND SREF SPREAD RAIN FARTHER
EAST INTO KLBF BUT THESE MODELS DONT LINE UP WITH THE CURRENT RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE LIES FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
MT BETWEEN KBIL-KMLS AND THIS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTN
AND EVENING FOLLOWING THE SAME COURSE AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM.
HPC OUTLOOKS THE SOUTHWEST FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BUT THE 6 HOUR QPF
THEY PROVIDE AND MODEL BLENDED TOTALS DO NOT APPROACH ANYWHERE NEAR
THE FLOOD GUIDANCE REQUIRED FOR THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. BEST
GUESS ON QPF FOR THE SOUTHWEST IS AROUND AN INCH TOTAL FOR THIS
EVENT.
HIGHS TODAY REMAIN STEADY IN THE MID 60S IN THE RAIN LIKELY AREA
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE DRY NCNTL ZONES.
LOTS OF TRAPPED MOISTURE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD
KEEP SKIES OVERCAST. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 50S. NONE OF THE
MODELS INDICATE FOG BUT THE GUIDANCE SURE DOES AT
KIML-KAIA-KOGA-KSNY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE PV ANOMALY/SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...WILL BE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
HIGH AMOUNTS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL
ENSURE A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE SOME WEAK LIFT WILL BE
PRESENT. BY AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DRY OUT WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. H850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
THOUGH THE DAY...APPROACHING 20C BY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WHERE
CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH ALL LOCATIONS INTO THE 90S FOR
HIGHS BY SUNDAY. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 90S THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING A BIT
WITH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ IS TO KEEP
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SOMEWHERE OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINING MODERATE FROM THE WEST OVER
OUR REGION. A NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...SHOWN IN BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF...IS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH. SOME CONVECTION IS GENERATED BY BOTH MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY POPS THIS FORECAST CYCLE HOWEVER...AS
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE MUCH STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND DRY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL HIGH/LOWER
HEIGHTS DURING THE WEEKEND...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MAY HAVE
TO BE INTRODUCED SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS AS WE HAD INTO NEXT WEEK. THEY INSIST THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AND BUILD/EXPAND NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION...WITH H700 MB TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 16C AND H500 MB TEMPS
NEAR -5C. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND A DRY
FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
VRF CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECK EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE AVIATION
CONCERN.
FURTHER SOUTH SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS ARE CREATING A TRICKY FORECAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND INTO THE PANHANDLE. ONLY INCLUDING
VCSH IN THE KLBF TAF FOR NOW AS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
JUST SLIGHTLY OFF TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL...HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VISBYS
TONIGHT AT KLBF. RIGHT NOW HAVE INCLUDED OVC015 AND 4SM IN THE TAF
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED
WITH THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE AS FORECAST GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
617 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE RAP AND NAM SHOW NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY TODAY...750MB
CAPE...AND RADAR INDICATES TSTMS ACROSS ERN COLO WHERE THIS
INSTABILITY IS FCST TO BE. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST.
ALSO...WE ARE NOT GETTING NEARLY THE RADAR COVERAGE THE MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST WITH THE QPF. SO A 50-50 BLEND OF RAP-OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN PLACE WHICH LOWERS THE POP BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT FOR
MORE SCATTERED RAIN COVERAGE VS LIKELY IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...RESIDENT MCV ACROSS ERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE SHOULD
DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING PRODUCING REASONABLE RAIN FROM
KAIA-KOGA-KIML. SOME SOLNS LIKE THE GEM AND SREF SPREAD RAIN FARTHER
EAST INTO KLBF BUT THESE MODELS DONT LINE UP WITH THE CURRENT RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE LIES FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
MT BETWEEN KBIL-KMLS AND THIS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTN
AND EVENING FOLLOWING THE SAME COURSE AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM.
HPC OUTLOOKS THE SOUTHWEST FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BUT THE 6 HOUR QPF
THEY PROVIDE AND MODEL BLENDED TOTALS DO NOT APPROACH ANYWHERE NEAR
THE FLOOD GUIDANCE REQUIRED FOR THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. BEST
GUESS ON QPF FOR THE SOUTHWEST IS AROUND AN INCH TOTAL FOR THIS
EVENT.
HIGHS TODAY REMAIN STEADY IN THE MID 60S IN THE RAIN LIKELY AREA
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE DRY NCNTL ZONES.
LOTS OF TRAPPED MOISTURE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD
KEEP SKIES OVERCAST. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 50S. NONE OF THE
MODELS INDICATE FOG BUT THE GUIDANCE SURE DOES AT
KIML-KAIA-KOGA-KSNY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE PV ANOMALY/SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...WILL BE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
HIGH AMOUNTS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL
ENSURE A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE SOME WEAK LIFT WILL BE
PRESENT. BY AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DRY OUT WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. H850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
THOUGH THE DAY...APPROACHING 20C BY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WHERE
CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH ALL LOCATIONS INTO THE 90S FOR
HIGHS BY SUNDAY. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 90S THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING A BIT
WITH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ IS TO KEEP
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SOMEWHERE OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINING MODERATE FROM THE WEST OVER
OUR REGION. A NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...SHOWN IN BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF...IS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH. SOME CONVECTION IS GENERATED BY BOTH MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY POPS THIS FORECAST CYCLE HOWEVER...AS
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE MUCH STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND DRY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL HIGH/LOWER
HEIGHTS DURING THE WEEKEND...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MAY HAVE
TO BE INTRODUCED SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS AS WE HAD INTO NEXT WEEK. THEY INSIST THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AND BUILD/EXPAND NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION...WITH H700 MB TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 16C AND H500 MB TEMPS
NEAR -5C. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND A DRY
FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 61.
TONIGHT...CIGS LOWER TO MVFR ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBY IN FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
603 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE RAP AND NAM SHOW NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY TODAY...750MB
CAPE...AND RADAR INDICATES TSTMS ACROSS ERN COLO WHERE THIS
INSTABILITY IS FCST TO BE. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST.
ALSO...WE ARE NOT GETTING NEARLY THE RADAR COVERAGE THE MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST WITH THE QPF. SO A 50-50 BLEND OF RAP-OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN PLACE WHICH LOWERS THE POP BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT FOR
MORE SCATTERED RAIN COVERAGE VS LIKELY IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...RESIDENT MCV ACROSS ERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE SHOULD
DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING PRODUCING REASONABLE RAIN FROM
KAIA-KOGA-KIML. SOME SOLNS LIKE THE GEM AND SREF SPREAD RAIN FARTHER
EAST INTO KLBF BUT THESE MODELS DONT LINE UP WITH THE CURRENT RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE LIES FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
MT BETWEEN KBIL-KMLS AND THIS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTN
AND EVENING FOLLOWING THE SAME COURSE AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM.
HPC OUTLOOKS THE SOUTHWEST FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BUT THE 6 HOUR QPF
THEY PROVIDE AND MODEL BLENDED TOTALS DO NOT APPROACH ANYWHERE NEAR
THE FLOOD GUIDANCE REQUIRED FOR THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. BEST
GUESS ON QPF FOR THE SOUTHWEST IS AROUND AN INCH TOTAL FOR THIS
EVENT.
HIGHS TODAY REMAIN STEADY IN THE MID 60S IN THE RAIN LIKELY AREA
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE DRY NCNTL ZONES.
LOTS OF TRAPPED MOISTURE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD
KEEP SKIES OVERCAST. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 50S. NONE OF THE
MODELS INDICATE FOG BUT THE GUIDANCE SURE DOES AT
KIML-KAIA-KOGA-KSNY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE PV ANOMALY/SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...WILL BE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
HIGH AMOUNTS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL
ENSURE A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE SOME WEAK LIFT WILL BE
PRESENT. BY AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DRY OUT WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. H850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
THOUGH THE DAY...APPROACHING 20C BY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WHERE
CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH ALL LOCATIONS INTO THE 90S FOR
HIGHS BY SUNDAY. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 90S THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING A BIT
WITH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ IS TO KEEP
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SOMEWHERE OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINING MODERATE FROM THE WEST OVER
OUR REGION. A NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...SHOWN IN BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF...IS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH. SOME CONVECTION IS GENERATED BY BOTH MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY POPS THIS FORECAST CYCLE HOWEVER...AS
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE MUCH STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND DRY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL HIGH/LOWER
HEIGHTS DURING THE WEEKEND...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MAY HAVE
TO BE INTRODUCED SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS AS WE HAD INTO NEXT WEEK. THEY INSIST THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AND BUILD/EXPAND NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION...WITH H700 MB TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 16C AND H500 MB TEMPS
NEAR -5C. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND A DRY
FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH OVERCAST SKIES
EXPECTED AT THE KLBF TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE KLBF
TERMINAL...CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FROM 6000 FT AGL TO 4000 FT
AGL BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP WITH CIGS
DROPPING DOWN TO 2500 FT AGL BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
TO AROUND 4000 FT AGL BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS RAIN COMES TO AN END
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE KVTN TERMINAL...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CIGS RANGING FROM 10000 TO 20000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND MAY DROP DOWN TO 6000 FT AGL WEDS AFTN. CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT BY MID EVENING WEDNESDAY. ATTM...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THE KVTN TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1140 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
STORMS ARE STILL ACTIVE ACROSS PARTS OF NEW MEXICO...NAMELY EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTH CENTRAL VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN HIGHLANDS AND PLATEAU REGION WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...LIKELY DECREASING SOME IN
COVERAGE BETWEEN 16/0800 AND 16/1200UTC. ANY STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF DOWNPOURS THAT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY
ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. A LULL IN STORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND THE MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...316 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. RECENT BURN SCARS AND AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE AT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL
STORM ACTIVITY WILL TREND DOWN THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A PWAT VALUE AROUND 1.21 INCHES...WHICH IS
OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINS. RECENT BURN SCARS AS WELL AS AREAS HAVING RECENTLY
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DELAYED INITIATION. THE HRRR AND RUC
DEPICT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE GILA MOUNTAINS AS THE BEST
AREAS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH IS HOLDING
TRUE BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE N
TO S...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH NE NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH AN ATTENDANT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA DUE TO INCREASED
CAPE...SHEAR...AND LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -2 AND -6. THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. LOWERED TEMPS A LITTLE MORE
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS WEDNESDAY
DESPITE SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO NW NM.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TREND DOWN THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RE-CENTERS OVER SOUTHWEST NM.
STORMS WILL BE LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT MAY INCREASE
CHANCES ACROSS THE NE. DRIER AIR UNDERNEATH THE HIGH WILL WORK
INTO WESTERN NM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FURTHER LIMITING STORM
COVERAGE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. WITH THE HIGH MOVING BACK
OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND...BECOMING NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
MODELS HINT FOR A RETURN OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REDEVELOPING THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. BUT STILL LATE IN THE RUNS TO PUT MUCH STOCK IN THAT
OUTLOOK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. ONE
MORE DAY OF WIDESPREAD MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE GRADUAL DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE GOT WORKED OVER BY YESTERDAY/LAST
NIGHTS RAIN. THUS A MORE STABLE START. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A MATURE MCV OR SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY. OTHER AREAS WILL BE SLOW TO
DEVELOP DUE TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS RAIN. NOT EXPECTING NEAR THE COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND STORMS TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL BE PRETTY GOOD WITH HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
THE STAGE IS SET FOR A PRETTY DYNAMIC PERIOD STARTING WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE THAT CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER MONTANA WILL DROP DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A CORRESPONDING SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE UP
WITH THE MAIN WETTING RAIN FOCUS PLACED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AND
PROVIDE A DECENT FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. MORE NOTICEABLE WILL BE THE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND GRADIENT FOUND
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. MODERATELY BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FAIRLY EARLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. A
MORE NORTHERLY COLD FRONTAL PUNCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RECYCLING OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FIRE UP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS THURSDAY AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CELL ACTIVITY WILL BE
MUCH MORE LIMITED ACROSS THE WEST WITH SMALLER FOOTPRINTS OF
MOISTURE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS THAT WILL FILTER
IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING. STILL SEEING SOME
LOCALIZED HAINES 6 VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
AREA. LOW/MID TEEN RH VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAN JUAN
PLATEAU....MUCH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. A FEW
WEST/NORTHWEST RESIDUAL BREEZES ACROSS THE WEST. ANY CELLS THAT DO
FOR SHOULD CONTAIN SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW/DOWNDRAFT WINDS DUE TO THE MID
LEVEL DRYING.
CAN SEE A BRIEF APPEARANCE OF A WESTERLY PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL COME UP BUT EXPECT THAT TO BE
A BRIEF ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES AND DROP HUMIDITY VALUES
ACCORDINGLY. LOOKING AT MORE NUMEROUS TEEN READINGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME BUILDUPS BUT WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINT WOULD BE SMALL IF NOT NONEXISTENT. THIS MEANS A MIX OF
WET/DRY STORMS WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW/DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHWARD AND AFFECT NEW MEXICO/S WEATHER
DURING THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM AND EVENTUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS. HUMIDITY
VALUES SHOULD LOWER AREAWIDE BUT NOT EXPECTING VALUES TO DROP OUT OF
SITE LIKE JUNE READINGS. STILL LOOKING AT SOME HAINES 6 READINGS. AS
THE HEAT PUMP BUILDS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY FLOW BACK
INTO THE UPPER HIGH FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS APPEARS TO BE A
GRADUAL PROCESS BASED ON CURRENT AND PAST MODEL TRENDS. THUS...A
DOWN TREND IN MONSOONAL WETTING RAIN IS INEVITABLE AND EXPECTED FOR
A FEW DAYS.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. RESIDUAL MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS ALSO
IMPACTING A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA. DECIDED TO TAME DOWN TS THREAT
AT MANY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...GUP/FMN/ROW HAVE DECENT CHANCE AT
BEING IMPACTED BY TS OR SH AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE
EVENING. FMN LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LATER BASED ON UPSTREAM
SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS. CARRYING VCSH AT AEG/SAF/ABQ AND TCC
AS A PLACEHOLDER UNTIL DISTINCT PRECIPITATION/CELL TRENDS CAN BE
DISTINGUISHED. PROBABLY IMPACT RG VALLEY LOCATIONS LATER IN THE
DAY. NOT LOOKING AT NEARLY AS MUCH ACTIVITY TONIGHT COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT. FAVORING WESTERN AREAS THOUGH.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1016 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO
THIS WEEKEND, WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE GROWING FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
BETWEEN 6Z AND 8Z. WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT, AND IT LOOKS
PROBABLE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO (OR BELOW) THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS.
OUR DATABASE SHOWS SIMILAR PROFILES HAVE RESULTED IN AT LEAST
LIGHT FOG AT KELM.
6 PM UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AS TROF AXIS ROTATES
INTO EASTERN NY, AND DIURNAL HEATING WANES. RUC DEPICTS DECREASING
LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WILL ALLOW THE POPS TO DROP BELOW ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THE NEXT 2
HOURS, AND WILL FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISLD TO SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVED OVER C NY IN ASSCTN
WITH THE TROF AXIS MOVG RIGHT THRU NY/PA. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
ASCENT AT MID-LEVELS WAS LEADING TO SOME INSTABILITY THAT WAS
TRIGGERED BY THE DIURNAL HEATING. THIS ACVTY WILL LAST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AND THEN FADE FAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PV MAX PASSES
E AND THE UPPER TROF FLATTENS.
THE TROF AXIS PASSES E OF THE REGION AND HGHTS RISES..THIS WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS NY AND PA WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES
BY FRI AM. EXPECT THE HIGH TO REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU FRIDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS NY AND
PENNSYLVANIA KEEPING MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY WEST OF OUR
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PA AND FAR WESTERN NY... HOWEVER MODEL
CONSENSUS IS STRONG INDICATING THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY WEST OF CENTRAL NY. HAVE GONE WITH A 20 TO 30 POP FOR
SATURDAY MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-81 TO ACCOUNT FOR A SMALL
CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE FINGER
LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND JUST A LOW CHC POP FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RETURNING TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AND NOTHING MORE THAN LOW
CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEAK SFC-TO-UPPER LEVEL
FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. KEEPING ANY FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WEST OF OUR AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT
WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY BUT WILL
KEEP POPS ONLY IN THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE ECMWF
SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR QUITE WARM CONDITIONS BY MIDWEEK WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD COURTESY OF BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE...EXCEPT FOR PREDAWN VALLEY FOG AT KELM. DIURNAL
CUMULUS IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING...ON THE WAY TO A MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT. ATMOSPHERE DRIED OUT SIGNIFICANTLY DURING PEAK MIXING HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL MEAN THAT VALLEY FOG AT
KELM WILL TAKE LONG TO FORM. ALSO...A VERY WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY
SKIM SOME PATCHY CLOUDS OR AT LEAST ELEVATED MOISTURE ABOVE 20 KFT
AGL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...WHICH MAY SLIGHTLY HOLD BACK THE
AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN THE END I STILL EXPECT AT LEAST
IFR VIS TO BE REALIZED WITHIN THE 09Z-12Z WINDOW...BUT LESS
CONFIDENT ABOUT AIRPORT MIN BEING REACHED. IT IS POSSIBLE BUT I NO
LONGER CONSIDER IT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN WNW 3-7 KTS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU NGT THRU SAT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG ELM
DURING PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SUN-MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
736 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO
THIS WEEKEND, WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AS TROF AXIS ROTATES
INTO EASTERN NY, AND DIURNAL HEATING WANES. RUC DEPICTS DECREASING
LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WILL ALLOW THE POPS TO DROP BELOW ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THE NEXT 2
HOURS, AND WILL FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISLD TO SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVED OVER C NY IN ASSCTN
WITH THE TROF AXIS MOVG RIGHT THRU NY/PA. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
ASCENT AT MID-LEVELS WAS LEADING TO SOME INSTABILITY THAT WAS
TRIGGERED BY THE DIURNAL HEATING. THIS ACVTY WILL LAST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AND THEN FADE FAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PV MAX PASSES
E AND THE UPPER TROF FLATTENS.
THE TROF AXIS PASSES E OF THE REGION AND HGHTS RISES..THIS WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS NY AND PA WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES
BY FRI AM. EXPECT THE HIGH TO REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU FRIDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS NY AND
PENNSYLVANIA KEEPING MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY WEST OF OUR
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PA AND FAR WESTERN NY... HOWEVER MODEL
CONSENSUS IS STRONG INDICATING THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY WEST OF CENTRAL NY. HAVE GONE WITH A 20 TO 30 POP FOR
SATURDAY MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-81 TO ACCOUNT FOR A SMALL
CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE FINGER
LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND JUST A LOW CHC POP FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RETURNING TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AND NOTHING MORE THAN LOW
CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEAK SFC-TO-UPPER LEVEL
FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. KEEPING ANY FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WEST OF OUR AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT
WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY BUT WILL
KEEP POPS ONLY IN THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE ECMWF
SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR QUITE WARM CONDITIONS BY MIDWEEK WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD COURTESY OF BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE...EXCEPT FOR PREDAWN VALLEY FOG AT KELM. DIURNAL
CUMULUS IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING...ON THE WAY TO A MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT. ATMOSPHERE DRIED OUT SIGNIFICANTLY DURING PEAK MIXING HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL MEAN THAT VALLEY FOG AT
KELM WILL TAKE LONG TO FORM. ALSO...A VERY WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY
SKIM SOME PATCHY CLOUDS OR AT LEAST ELEVATED MOISTURE ABOVE 20 KFT
AGL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...WHICH MAY SLIGHTLY HOLD BACK THE
AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN THE END I STILL EXPECT AT LEAST
IFR VIS TO BE REALIZED WITHIN THE 09Z-12Z WINDOW...BUT LESS
CONFIDENT ABOUT AIRPORT MIN BEING REACHED. IT IS POSSIBLE BUT I NO
LONGER CONSIDER IT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN WNW 3-7 KTS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU NGT THRU SAT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG ELM
DURING PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SUN-MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
543 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF OUR REGION BY FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END TO THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WITH ITS AXIS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
POOL OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT IS CONTINUING TO BRING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKE PLAINS AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
DIRECTLY EAST OF THE LAKES A LAKE SHADOW OF MORE STABLE AIR IS
FOUND WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES.
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE DIURNAL CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH SLOWLY AFTER SUNSET. NEAR-TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
RGEM SUGGEST A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS THIS EVENING SHIFTING
SOUTH FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AS A
SURFACE TROUGH FOUND ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON DIPS SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE EXPECT AREAS OF
RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OVERNIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY IN THE DAY MAY PRODUCE
STRATO-CU FIELD INLAND FROM A LAKE SHADOW...HOWEVER DRIER
ATMOSPHERE WILL FAVOR LESS CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STRAY CLOSE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 17 ARE AS FOLLOWS:
BUFFALO 52/1985
ROCHESTER 48/1892
WATERTOWN...44/1993
THESE RECORDS ARE PROBABLY SAFE...EXCEPT FOR BUFFALO WHERE IF SKIES
CAN CLEAR EARLY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THEN THE RECORD
LOW MAY BE IN JEOPARDY OF FALLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES SATURDAY WITH SOME DAYTIME CU AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
TIER MAY PREVENT VALLEY FOG FROM FORMING.
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY THEN NORMAL OR SLIGHT ABOVE FRIDAY NIGHT..DEPENDANT UPON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD AS MODELS
CONSENSUS IS STILL WEAK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER THAN THE
ECMWF HOWEVER NOW APPEARS TO BE TRENDING MORE TOWARD AN INVERTED
TROUGH SPREADING MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER ON SATURDAY
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH HANGING TOUGH OVER NEW YORK THOUGH POPS AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURE-WISE HIGH LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL READINGS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY THEN RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO WARM WITH TIME WITH READING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DIURNAL STRATO-CU DECK WITH BASES 3-4K FT CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AWAY FROM THE LAKES. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER AND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH MODELS SUGGESTING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL FORM IN THE SOUTHERN TIER REDUCING VSBY
TO 2-3SM IN SPOTS BUT NOT IMPACTING KJHW.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS ON THURSDAY WITH BASES 4K WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE TRANQUIL...W 5 TO 10
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...OTHER THAN VALLEY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
INTO BUFFALO HARBOR AND UPPER NIAGARA RIVER FOR THIS EVENING SW
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING HAS PRODUCED SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND MAY EVEN BRING A
FEW WATERSPOUTS ON LAKE ERIE. THE SZILAGYI WATERSPOUT NOMOGRAM
FORECAST SUGGESTS A SMALL CHANCE MAINLY ON LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS
ON LAKE ERIE AND WEST LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AT WHICH TIME
THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD POOL WILL MAKE
WATERSPOUT FORMATION UNLIKELY.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
040-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/JF
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH/JF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
651 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT...THEN STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND DRIFT
TOWARDS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME DOMINANT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT STARTING TO EDGE TOWARD THE COAST...ROUGHLY LYING
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM KILL DEVIL HILLS TO KENANSVILLE.
PRECIPITATION LINGERS ALONG THE COAST WITH A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS
OVER THE OUTER BANKS...WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND. HAVE
TWEAKED POPS DOWN WITH 3KM HRRR AND RAP SHOWING PRECIPITATION
GRADUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 03Z AND 06Z. WITH THE
WET GROUND...ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG TO FORM LATE TONIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE NC COAST THURS WITH A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE NOSING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES THURS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
THURS WITH RIDGING IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL
TOMORROW DESPITE LOTS OF SUN, MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND LOW
80S COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS THU NIGHT WITH RIDGING IN PLACE...THEN IT APPEARS THE
STALLED TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT BACK WEST CLOSER TO THE AREA.
WILL CONTINUE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OBX/COASTAL WATERS FRI AFTERNOON...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER/TSTORM ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE WHICH SHOULD MOVE
DEEP INLAND FRI GIVEN NE/E BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THOUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND AND
MID 60S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST...AND HIGHS IN THE LOW/UPPER
80S FRI.
00Z GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE DEVELOPS INTO AN INVERTED
TROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF SHIFTS THE TROUGH SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO LAND THAN THE GFS SOLUTION FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH
MAKES WIND AND POP/WX FORECASTS TRICKY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
NORTHEAST WINDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE
SLOWLY VEERING EAST SUN AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT. A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVES COULD CROSS THE REGION IN LIGHT MEAN SW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH ALSO MAKES TIMING OF PRECIP TRICKY. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM EAST TO WEST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND SUN
GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH PWATS
BUILDING ABOVE 2 INCHES...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MOD/HEAVY RAINFALL
AT TIMES. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN GREATER CLOUD
COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
INHIBIT MAXIMUM INSOLATION. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME...THOUGH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH
INSTABILITY...SO FEEL THUNDER WILL OVERALL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BY MON...HEDGED CLOSER TO THE WPC/ECMWF AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
WINDS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD TAKE OVER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH
THE REMNANTS OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY/INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTING
NORTH OF THE REGION. THE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TAP THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MON INTO TUES...WITH 00Z
GUIDANCE HINTING AT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION ALOFT.
WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN NC MON/TUES. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REMAIN 1405-1415 METERS MON AND TUES WHICH SUPPORTS
MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE OBX/COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION EXITING THE
AREA...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AT THS TAF SITES. WITH A
FEW ISOLATED LINGERING SHOWERS TO THE WEST...MAY STILL SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
A SATURATED GROUND...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND WILL FORECAST AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY WITH VFR
PREVAILING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS
POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OVER THE
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT THROUGH MON WITH
INVERTED TROUGH AND LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM...WILL CONTINUE SCA SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. DIAMOND
BUOY STILL HOVERING AROUND 6 FEET ALTHOUGH WINDS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS AND MAY EXTEND FOR A FEW HOURS
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND POST FRONTAL NNE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15 KT
AND GUSTY ON THURSDAY. SEAS REMAIN 3-5 FT THRU THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...MODERATE NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
THU NIGHT INTO SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 3-5FT. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FRI. COULD POSSIBLY SEE
SEAS UP TO 6FT FOR OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS THU NIGHT
INTO FRI...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CAP AT 5FT NOW. GUIDANCE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER EAST
THOUGHOUT THE DAY SUN...GENERALLY AOB 10KT SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
WITH SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD/DAG
AVIATION...CTC/CQD/BM
MARINE...CTC/BTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
920 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...PROVIDING THE OHIO VALLEY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN ON
FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING SLIGHTLY
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED/MOVED INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES
EARLY THIS MORNING. RAP SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS WELL WITH
CLOUDS REMAINING PERSISTENT IN A CORRIDOR AFFECTING AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE WHITEWATER AND MIAMI VALLEYS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH
HEATING CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ELSEWHERE AS WELL WITH GREATER
COVERAGE IN NORTHERN AREAS. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND
HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A STRONGER GRADIENT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. NEAR TERM MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT CANNOT
DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY. SO HAVE CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THE IMMEDIATE
DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE HIGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS SOON AS FRIDAY. THE PATTERN AND
TIMING OF THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW (AND GULF MOISTURE) IS
BEING HANDLED QUITE INCONSISTENTLY...LEADING TO A FORECAST WITH
LOWER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS SOON AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOW
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING (WHICH WILL STILL
REMAIN QUITE LOW AND NEAR RECORD VALUES). WITH WARMER AIR STARTING
TO MOVE IN ALOFT...MIXING ON THURSDAY SHOULD PRODUCE LESS CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE AS WELL.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT...TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AGAIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY (THOUGH MUCH MORE
BROAD THAN THE SIGNIFICANT MID-WEEK SYSTEM). COMBINED WITH THE
SHIFT IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...SOUTHERN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY CEASE TO BE
SUPPRESSED. MOST OF THE MODELS DEPICT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...AS THIS
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE
ECMWF HAS PERHAPS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS SIGNAL OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT (AND INCREASING MORE DURING DIURNAL TIMING ON
SATURDAY)...AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY FOR THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. DEPICTIONS FROM THE GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN WILDLY VARIABLE
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
THOUGH THE MODELS AGREE ON GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...THE
ACTUAL DEPICTION OF RAW SURFACE TEMP VALUES IS ALSO NOT AS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED AS WOULD BE IDEAL. FIGURING THAT THIS WILL END UP BEING
AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE CHANCES OR CLOUDS ANYWAY (ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY)...A BLENDED APPROACH SHOWING A GRADUAL RISE FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WAS USED IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE A LACK OF MAJOR WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS...AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTER AIR FROM THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. THIS MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION UNDER
COOLER AIR ALOFT. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL LESSEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE
STABLE REGIME.
TEMPERATURES MAY EXHIBIT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMALS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO START MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S ON
FRIDAY...INCREASING TO THE MID 80S BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS
TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME. THE
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOL MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR CONSIDERABLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY. IN ADDITION...ONE OF
THOSE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS SUCH...A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST WITH AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
632 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...PROVIDING THE OHIO VALLEY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN ON
FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING SLIGHTLY
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE COLDEST 850MB AIR (PERHAPS AS COLD AS 7C AT ILN)
WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. WITH INSOLATION EXPECTED TO
HELP MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH AT LEAST THAT HIGH...LAPSE
RATES IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE STEEP. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH-RES MODEL RUNS MATCH THIS
ACTIVITY TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE...AS WELL AS A WELL-TIMED (THOUGH
FAIRLY WEAK) SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. POPS
WILL BE KEPT IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE (AND DRY IN THE VERY FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA)...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA IF COVERAGE APPEARS GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A POSSIBILITY. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 00Z.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS OVER TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILN CWA. EVEN THE FREQUENTLY-AGGRESSIVE RAP ONLY
ALLOWS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA.
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE THREE CLIMATE
SITES FOR JULY 16.
CVG...72...1892
CMH...70...1892
DAY...72...1940/1918
OF THESE...DAYTON APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF FAILING
TO REACH THE OLD NUMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THE IMMEDIATE
DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE HIGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS SOON AS FRIDAY. THE PATTERN AND
TIMING OF THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW (AND GULF MOISTURE) IS
BEING HANDLED QUITE INCONSISTENTLY...LEADING TO A FORECAST WITH
LOWER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS SOON AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOW
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING (WHICH WILL STILL
REMAIN QUITE LOW AND NEAR RECORD VALUES). WITH WARMER AIR STARTING
TO MOVE IN ALOFT...MIXING ON THURSDAY SHOULD PRODUCE LESS CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE AS WELL.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT...TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AGAIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY (THOUGH MUCH MORE
BROAD THAN THE SIGNIFICANT MID-WEEK SYSTEM). COMBINED WITH THE
SHIFT IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...SOUTHERN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY CEASE TO BE
SUPPRESSED. MOST OF THE MODELS DEPICT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...AS THIS
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE
ECMWF HAS PERHAPS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS SIGNAL OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT (AND INCREASING MORE DURING DIURNAL TIMING ON
SATURDAY)...AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY FOR THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. DEPICTIONS FROM THE GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN WILDLY VARIABLE
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
THOUGH THE MODELS AGREE ON GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...THE
ACTUAL DEPICTION OF RAW SURFACE TEMP VALUES IS ALSO NOT AS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED AS WOULD BE IDEAL. FIGURING THAT THIS WILL END UP BEING
AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE CHANCES OR CLOUDS ANYWAY (ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY)...A BLENDED APPROACH SHOWING A GRADUAL RISE FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WAS USED IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE A LACK OF MAJOR WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS...AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTER AIR FROM THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. THIS MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION UNDER
COOLER AIR ALOFT. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL LESSEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE
STABLE REGIME.
TEMPERATURES MAY EXHIBIT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMALS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO START MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S ON
FRIDAY...INCREASING TO THE MID 80S BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS
TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME. THE
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOL MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR CONSIDERABLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY. IN ADDITION...ONE OF
THOSE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS SUCH...A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST WITH AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
419 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...PROVIDING THE OHIO VALLEY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN ON
FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING SLIGHTLY
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE COLDEST 850MB AIR (PERHAPS AS COLD AS 7C AT ILN)
WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. WITH INSOLATION EXPECTED TO
HELP MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH AT LEAST THAT HIGH...LAPSE
RATES IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE STEEP. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH-RES MODEL RUNS MATCH THIS
ACTIVITY TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE...AS WELL AS A WELL-TIMED (THOUGH
FAIRLY WEAK) SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. POPS
WILL BE KEPT IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE (AND DRY IN THE VERY FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA)...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA IF COVERAGE APPEARS GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A POSSIBILITY. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 00Z.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS OVER TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILN CWA. EVEN THE FREQUENTLY-AGGRESSIVE RAP ONLY
ALLOWS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA.
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE THREE CLIMATE
SITES FOR JULY 16.
CVG...72...1892
CMH...70...1892
DAY...72...1940/1918
OF THESE...DAYTON APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF FAILING
TO REACH THE OLD NUMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THE IMMEDIATE
DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE HIGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS SOON AS FRIDAY. THE PATTERN AND
TIMING OF THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW (AND GULF MOISTURE) IS
BEING HANDLED QUITE INCONSISTENTLY...LEADING TO A FORECAST WITH
LOWER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS SOON AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOW
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING (WHICH WILL STILL
REMAIN QUITE LOW AND NEAR RECORD VALUES). WITH WARMER AIR STARTING
TO MOVE IN ALOFT...MIXING ON THURSDAY SHOULD PRODUCE LESS CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE AS WELL.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT...TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AGAIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY (THOUGH MUCH MORE
BROAD THAN THE SIGNIFICANT MID-WEEK SYSTEM). COMBINED WITH THE
SHIFT IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...SOUTHERN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY CEASE TO BE
SUPPRESSED. MOST OF THE MODELS DEPICT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...AS THIS
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE
ECMWF HAS PERHAPS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS SIGNAL OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT (AND INCREASING MORE DURING DIURNAL TIMING ON
SATURDAY)...AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY FOR THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. DEPICTIONS FROM THE GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN WILDLY VARIABLE
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
THOUGH THE MODELS AGREE ON GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...THE
ACTUAL DEPICTION OF RAW SURFACE TEMP VALUES IS ALSO NOT AS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED AS WOULD BE IDEAL. FIGURING THAT THIS WILL END UP BEING
AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE CHANCES OR CLOUDS ANYWAY (ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY)...A BLENDED APPROACH SHOWING A GRADUAL RISE FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WAS USED IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE A LACK OF MAJOR WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS...AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTER AIR FROM THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. THIS MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION UNDER
COOLER AIR ALOFT. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL LESSEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE
STABLE REGIME.
TEMPERATURES MAY EXHIBIT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMALS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO START MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S ON
FRIDAY...INCREASING TO THE MID 80S BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS
TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME. THE
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOL MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR CONSIDERABLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY. IN ADDITION...ONE OF
THOSE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS SUCH...A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST WITH AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
131 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COOLER...DRIER DAYS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY WHEN
LOW PRESSURE WANDERS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST
THROUGH WV...FIRING UP A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT THAT HAVE
STRUGGLED TO EVEN PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE HRRR HAS
HAD A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THIS PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE DAY SO USED
IT TO GAUGE THE TIMING OF THE LINE.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
SKIES BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
FOR MOST. KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR TODAY
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN KEEPING AWAY MOST OF THE SUN UNTIL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOMORROW...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE AS THERE WAS VARIATION FROM LOW 80S TO LOW
70S. CALMER WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES SHOULD KEEP US A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AND THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
KEEP US COOLER THAN THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE WEAK FLOW...MOIST GROUND...AND CLEARING SKIES...CAN CERTAINLY
EXPECT SOME FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS.
EXPECTING IT TO STAY MOSTLY DRY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS TOMORROW EVENING FOR THOSE IN SE OH AS A VORT MAX
MAKES ITS WAY AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL...NO WHOLESALE CHANGES WERE MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. UPPER
CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTH WITH AXIS EXTENDING S/SW-WARD STILL
LOCATED OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AT 00Z THU WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST WED
EVE AND WED NIGHT...WITH AFOREMENTIONED S/W AXIS PROGGED TO BE
LOCATED JUST NE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THU. AM SOMEWHAT
SKEPTICAL OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWEST WED EVE WITH MEAGER LLVL
MOISTURE...PWATS UNDER AN INCH...AND NO APPARENT SFC OR BL FEATURE
TO ACT AS A TRIGGERING MECH. NONETHELESS...WILL KEEP INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS AS
OPERATIONALLY I CAN/T SAY IT WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTIVE SHOWER TO DEVELOP BEFORE LOSING THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
BUT AS PREV SHIFT MENTIONED...THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY WED EVE OR PERHAPS SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE AT WORST. WILL
BUMP UP SKY COVER JUST A TAD WITH SOME INDICATION OF PERHAPS SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT COVERAGE STILL PROBABLY NOT QUITE
ENOUGH AND LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT OVERNIGHT MINS AS THE S/W AXIS
CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH LESS CLOUD COVER TOWARDS THE DAWN HOURS. THU
MORNING SHOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THIS COOL SNAP...WITH MINS
GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 40S IN THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. EVEN HAVE SOME LOW 40S CODED UP FOR THE USUAL
COOL SPOTS OF RANDOLPH/POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.
THURSDAY WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY. ENOUGH OF A PINCH OF MOISTURE REMAINS
AROUND 850MB TO RESULT IN SOME FLAT-CU UNDERNEATH STABLE CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AT 800MB...STILL ALL IN ALL SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
FOR ALL. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING MAX TEMPS...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE AT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER
FLOW BACKS TO SW AS A POTENT S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER/MID
MISS VALLEY. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING THE USUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND PARTICULARLY INTO FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE WHOLE WILL BE AROUND 5-7 DEGREES WARMER
VERSUS WED NIGHT WITH READING MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF THE S/W TROUGH TO OUR SW
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY. 925MB AND
850MB TEMPS WOULD INDICATE WARMER MAX TEMP POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY BUT
THINKING THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM FULL HEATING
POTENTIAL...STILL EXPECTING TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AS WELL BY AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
PARTICULARLY HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES
AND ALONG THE EAST/SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS BY THE 21Z FRI-00Z SAT
TIME FRAME. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO RAMP UP WITH THE CAP
AROUND 700MB SO HAVE LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AND THEN REMAIN NEARBY THOUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...PATCHY MVFR/IFR
FOG IS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY AFTER 08Z...IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z...WITH A RETURN TO
VFR AREA WIDE WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 03-06Z
THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT
MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 07/16/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H M M M M M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M L H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/50/LS
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...SL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1224 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LIGHT RAIN SLOWLY SPREADING EAST INTO NE OKLAHOMA BUT CONTINUES
TO ENCOUNTER A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE
ACROSS EASTERN OK THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WHILE
LIKELY HOLDING ACROSS W ARKANSAS INTO EARLY THU MORNING. NET
RESULT WILL BE GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS TONIGHT ACROSS E OK WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING LIKELY...AND LOCAL IFR WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...
INITIAL WAVE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SLOWLY EXPANDING INTO PARTS
OF EASTERN OK THIS MORNING...THOUGH WEDGE OF DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT ITS PROGRESS EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THAT SAID...BOTH RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT RUNS OF BOTH THE LOCAL
WRF AND HRRR REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP DURING THE DAY IN AREAS MAINLY WEST OF U.S. 75. 12Z NAM
ALSO DEPICTS INCREASING ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS PART OF SE
OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THESE TRENDS HAVE RAISED POPS
GENERALLY WEST OF A TUL-MKO-MLC LINE AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS
OVER MOST OF EASTERN OK DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. CURRENT CONFIG
OF FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS GOOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF
TUL/RVS/MLC AREA THIS MORNING WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT
MLC THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA TAF SITES. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS...OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...
STILL EXPECTING A HEAVY RAIN EVENT TO UNFOLD ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND POSSIBLY WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 CAN EXPECT 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
UPWARDS OF 8 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THAT WILL RUN FROM 12Z THURSDAY TO 18Z FRIDAY.
LESSER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TULSA FORECAST AREA IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT WITH THE AID OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT THIS ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE SHIFTING EAST INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA FOR TODAY.
AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS THAT COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE REASONS FOR KEEPING CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT THAT USHERED THE UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER INTO THE REGION
CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE NORTH TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE TONIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COMPACT MID-LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN CREATING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS AS IT TRAVERSES
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL END THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SO...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME SMALL POPS DURING THAT TIME-FRAME.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-
OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1012 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
INITIAL WAVE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SLOWLY EXPANDING INTO PARTS
OF EASTERN OK THIS MORNING...THOUGH WEDGE OF DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT ITS PROGRESS EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THAT SAID...BOTH RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT RUNS OF BOTH THE LOCAL
WRF AND HRRR REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP DURING THE DAY IN AREAS MAINLY WEST OF U.S. 75. 12Z NAM
ALSO DEPICTS INCREASING ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS PART OF SE
OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THESE TRENDS HAVE RAISED POPS
GENERALLY WEST OF A TUL-MKO-MLC LINE AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS
OVER MOST OF EASTERN OK DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. CURRENT CONFIG
OF FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF
TUL/RVS/MLC AREA THIS MORNING WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT
MLC THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA TAF SITES. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS...OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...
STILL EXPECTING A HEAVY RAIN EVENT TO UNFOLD ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND POSSIBLY WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 CAN EXPECT 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
UPWARDS OF 8 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THAT WILL RUN FROM 12Z THURSDAY TO 18Z FRIDAY.
LESSER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TULSA FORECAST AREA IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT WITH THE AID OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT THIS ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE SHIFTING EAST INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA FOR TODAY.
AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS THAT COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE REASONS FOR KEEPING CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT THAT USHERED THE UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER INTO THE REGION
CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE NORTH TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE TONIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COMPACT MID-LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN CREATING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS AS IT TRAVERSES
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL END THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SO...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME SMALL POPS DURING THAT TIME-FRAME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 75 63 69 63 / 60 50 80 60
FSM 80 64 71 64 / 40 30 80 80
MLC 78 65 70 64 / 70 40 80 60
BVO 74 62 68 60 / 50 50 70 60
FYV 78 58 67 61 / 20 30 70 60
BYV 76 58 68 60 / 10 20 50 60
MKO 75 63 68 62 / 60 50 80 60
MIO 77 61 70 61 / 20 30 60 60
F10 75 64 69 62 / 70 50 80 60
HHW 84 66 74 68 / 50 40 100 100
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-
OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
628 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY...THEN OFF THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND. A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW MAY DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST OF LANCASTER CO AS OF 08Z...BRINGING AN
END TO THE THREAT OF LINGERING SHRA. FURTHER WEST...CLEARING
SKIES...A CALM WIND AND WET GROUND HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY VALLEY
FOG. 11-3.9U SATL IMAGERY INDICATES THE MOST EXTENSIVE FOG IS IN
THE DEEP VALLEYS NORTH OF I-80. RAP AND NAMPARA BOTH INDICATE FOG
WILL BURN OFF IN ALL AREAS BY 12Z-13Z.
IR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LAKE EFFECT PLUMES COMING OFF OF
WESTERN LK ERIE...THE RESULT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR FLOWING
OVR WARM LAKE WATER. A FEW SHRA ALREADY NOTED EAST OF THE LK ERIE
SHORE AND PASSAGE OF POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD SUSTAIN THIS LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO THE LATE AM.
COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER TROF...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AMT OF CU ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATER
TODAY...WITH A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RTS
PROGGED CLOSE TO 7C/KM THIS AFTN OVR THE NW MTNS. ELSEWHERE...DRY
SLOT AND ASSOC NEGATIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WILL LIE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...SUPPORTING MSUNNY SKIES.
THE LARGEST NEGATIVE 925/850 TEMPS ANOMALIES IN GEFS DATA ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE M/U60S
EXPECTED. READINGS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SWING THRU THE REGION TONIGHT...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN PA EVEN
AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT FCST DRY FOR NOW.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE STATE TONIGHT...PROVIDING
FAVORABLE CONDS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DRY AIR AND A CALM WIND
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE INTO THE L/M40S ACROSS THE NORMAL
COOLS SPOTS OVR THE NW MTNS. THIS SCENARIO ALSO SUPPORTS LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES...WHERE
RIVER/STREAM WATER TEMPS ARE RUNNING IN THE 70S.
THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE A MSUNNY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER...UPPER
TROF AND ASSOC COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A FAIR AMT OF DIURNAL
CU. MDL SFC-700MB LAPSE RATES BECOME IMPRESSIVE BY AFTN AND CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHRA THRU EARLY AFTN OVR THE N MTNS. HOWEVER...BY
LATE AFTN...LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF TROF AXIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS CONVECTION. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS NEAR 12C SHOULD
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS FROM THE L70S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO
ARND 80F ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IDEAL CONDS FOR RAD COOLING THU NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...ALONG
WITH NEG PWAT ANOMALIES AND CLEAR SKIES. THE NORMALLY COOLER
VALLEYS OF THE NW MTNS COULD MAKE A RUN AT 40F.
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN OF
RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FRI-TUE WITH SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF
LOW OVR THE MISS VALLEY BECOMING DETACHED FROM MAIN BRANCH OF JET...THEN
SLOWLY DRIFTING NE TOWARD PA. EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN...BUT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHC OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION APPEARS PRUDENT SAT-TUE BASED ON GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BTW UPPER TROF TO THE WEST AND
UPPER RIDGE PARKED OFF THE SE COAST WILL DRAW INCREASINGLY WARM
AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA...SO HAVE SLOWLY RAMPED TEMPS UPWARD
TOWARD NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA THIS MORNING USHERING IN
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE AIRSPACE. AS SUCH...VFR CONDS
AT MOST TAF SITES ATTM EXCEPT EASTERN AIRFIELDS WHERE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE KEEPING LIFR CONDS. THESE SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
CONDS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE COLDER AIR STREAMING OVER WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE ARE
PRODUCING LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE. THESE SHOULD
SPREAD EAST DURING THE MORNING AND LEAD TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES AT
KBFD. ELSEWHERE...THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
CU FROM LATE MORNING ON...BUT ANY RESULTING CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR. A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WHERE CU BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY DEVELOPED...BUT ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AND SHORT LIVED.
OUTLOOK...
THU...AM FOG...ISOLD AFT SHOWERS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
537 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY...THEN OFF THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND. A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW MAY DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST OF LANCASTER CO AS OF 08Z...BRINGING AN
END TO THE THREAT OF LINGERING SHRA. FURTHER WEST...CLEARING
SKIES...A CALM WIND AND WET GROUND HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY VALLEY
FOG. 11-3.9U SATL IMAGERY INDICATES THE MOST EXTENSIVE FOG IS IN
THE DEEP VALLEYS NORTH OF I-80. RAP AND NAMPARA BOTH INDICATE FOG
WILL BURN OFF IN ALL AREAS BY 12Z-13Z.
IR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LAKE EFFECT PLUMES COMING OFF OF
WESTERN LK ERIE...THE RESULT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR FLOWING
OVR WARM LAKE WATER. A FEW SHRA ALREADY NOTED EAST OF THE LK ERIE
SHORE AND PASSAGE OF POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD SUSTAIN THIS LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO THE LATE AM.
COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER TROF...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AMT OF CU ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATER
TODAY...WITH A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RTS
PROGGED CLOSE TO 7C/KM THIS AFTN OVR THE NW MTNS. ELSEWHERE...DRY
SLOT AND ASSOC NEGATIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WILL LIE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...SUPPORTING MSUNNY SKIES.
THE LARGEST NEGATIVE 925/850 TEMPS ANOMALIES IN GEFS DATA ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE M/U60S
EXPECTED. READINGS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SWING THRU THE REGION TONIGHT...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN PA EVEN
AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT FCST DRY FOR NOW.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE STATE TONIGHT...PROVIDING
FAVORABLE CONDS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DRY AIR AND A CALM WIND
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE INTO THE L/M40S ACROSS THE NORMAL
COOLS SPOTS OVR THE NW MTNS. THIS SCENARIO ALSO SUPPORTS LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES...WHERE
RIVER/STREAM WATER TEMPS ARE RUNNING IN THE 70S.
THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE A MSUNNY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER...UPPER
TROF AND ASSOC COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A FAIR AMT OF DIURNAL
CU. MDL SFC-700MB LAPSE RATES BECOME IMPRESSIVE BY AFTN AND CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHRA THRU EARLY AFTN OVR THE N MTNS. HOWEVER...BY
LATE AFTN...LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF TROF AXIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS CONVECTION. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS NEAR 12C SHOULD
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS FROM THE L70S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO
ARND 80F ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IDEAL CONDS FOR RAD COOLING THU NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...ALONG
WITH NEG PWAT ANOMALIES AND CLEAR SKIES. THE NORMALLY COOLER
VALLEYS OF THE NW MTNS COULD MAKE A RUN AT 40F.
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN OF
RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FRI-TUE WITH SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF
LOW OVR THE MISS VALLEY BECOMING DETACHED FROM MAIN BRANCH OF JET...THEN
SLOWLY DRIFTING NE TOWARD PA. EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN...BUT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHC OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION APPEARS PRUDENT SAT-TUE BASED ON GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BTW UPPER TROF TO THE WEST AND
UPPER RIDGE PARKED OFF THE SE COAST WILL DRAW INCREASINGLY WARM
AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA...SO HAVE SLOWLY RAMPED TEMPS UPWARD
TOWARD NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL TAB UPDATES SINCE 7 PM. SMALL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR MDT AND LNS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
RATHER DEEP UPPER LVL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT
NE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLDS...EXPECT WINDS TO BE WEAK
ENOUGH FOR SOME FOG...GIVEN HOW WET IT HAS BEEN THIS
SUMMER. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF...SO WILL THE TEMPS.
FOR WED...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW
AT BFD. STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THU...AS THE UPPER
LVL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
SE FLOW MAY BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO CENTRAL PA
FOR THE PERIOD LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...AM FOG...SCT AFT SHOWERS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
830 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS BUT
PRETTY MUCH KEPT THEM THE SAME OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN TO THE NORTH AS WELL BUT JUST A TAD. KCRP SOUNDING
TONIGHT SHOWS 700MB TEMPS AROUND 13C SO ANY ACTIVITY THIS FAR
SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS UNLESS SOME STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING
OCCURS. FARTHER NORTH...CAP IS WEAKER BUT STILL THERE...AND COULD
SEE SOME THUNDER. 12Z 4KM TTU MODEL HAD ACTIVITY MOVING INTO MOST
OF NORTHERN CWFA BUT 18Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON THAT (STILL BRINGS
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DOWN). HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING WEAKENING
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWFA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...HRRR IS HAVING CONVECTION
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME WHERE THERE IS NO COVERAGE SO AM NOT BUYING
THIS MODEL TOTALLY. NEVERTHELESS...DID INCREASE POPS OVER THE
NORTH AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THEM MORE
IF TRENDS WARRANT. EVERYTHING ELSE FOR NOW LOOKS FINE. PRODUCTS
ARE OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014/
DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...THE COMBINATION OF MVFR/VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY EAST OF STATE ROAD 16. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE OWING FROM ISOLD/SCT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT TO THE COASTAL
COUNITES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FRIDAY MID MORNING/AFTN ALONG WITH MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. WIND WILL GRADUALLY DECAY OVERNIGHT...YET
REMAIN 10-15KT OVERNIGHT MAINLY EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND WEAKER
WEST. EXPECT WIND TO INCREASE STEADILY AFT 12Z FRIDAY YET DECREASE
AGAIN BY AFTN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES JUST NORTH OF SOUTH
TEXAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
HAS BEEN TRACKING THROUGH THE STATE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT. BOUNDARY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO MAKE IT DOWN
TO SOUTH TEXAS...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE POOLING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO NEAR 2.2-2.3 INCHES
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...AND BECOMING MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN TAPER
OFF TOMORROW NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN TODAY (THOUGHT STILL HOT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES) OWING TO
MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW OVER
LAND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...THOUGH REMAIN ELEVATED
ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES UNTIL THE MORNING.
MARINE (TONIGHT)...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH MEXICO/CENTRAL
TEXAS. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTHERN BAYS. WINDS OVER
THE BAYS WILL SUBSIDE MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT...AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS PROG A SHORT WAVE
TO RIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. THE GFS MAINTAINS 2 INCH PWATS
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA BUT MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE TOO
WARM FOR DEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE AM
THINKING JUST ISOLD CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FOR
SAT. THE HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST ON SUNDAY BECOMING MORE IN
CONTROL OVER S TX. THE OVERALL AIRMASS DRIES WITH ONLY LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE. THERE COULD BE AN ISOL SHRA OR
TWO ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ON SUNDAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ANTICIPATED. THE HIGH WILL KEEP THINGS DRY INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. MX TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ABV NORMAL. MODELS PROG DEWPOINTS
TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 70S LEADING TO DAYTIME HEAT INDICES OF
105-110 THRU MID WEEK. THE HIGH SHIFTS N BY MID WEEK WITH AN
EASTERLY WAVE PROGD TO PUSH ACROSS S TX...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORM VALUES AND A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 95 79 95 79 / 20 30 10 20 10
VICTORIA 77 92 77 94 78 / 50 50 30 20 10
LAREDO 81 102 80 102 80 / 20 30 30 20 10
ALICE 78 98 78 99 78 / 20 30 20 20 10
ROCKPORT 80 91 80 90 80 / 20 30 10 20 10
COTULLA 77 98 77 100 78 / 40 30 30 20 10
KINGSVILLE 79 96 79 99 80 / 20 30 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 91 81 90 81 / 20 30 10 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
259 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS STRUGGLED TODAY AND UNDERESTIMATED THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH 18Z FORECAST DEW POINTS GENERALLY 3-7 DEGREES BELOW
THE METARS. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM JACKSBORO TO GRANBURY TO
CORSICANA. STORMS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE BETTER PRECIP STILL TO COME THURSDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE DOES CONVERGE ON HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM ONE OR MORE MCS
OR MCS SEGMENTS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP
THAT WE ARE EXPECTING. THERE MAY BE HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWEST INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY THAT MAY SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY AS WELL. HRRR HINTS AT THIS BUT TTU
WRF DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK.
THE SECOND ROUND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...ALSO IN THE FORM OF SOME SORT OF MCS OR QLCS. THESE
STORMS WILL BE AIDED BY A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE AND A PUSH FROM
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.
PRECIP WILL SHUT DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TO OUR WEST.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN THE EAST AND HAVE LEFT THE
20 POPS THERE. CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. THERE MAY HAVE TO BE LOW POPS ADDED NEAR MID WEEK FOR A
POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT THERE IS NO CONSENSUS ON IT YET. 84
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 115 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL BE
THE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SCATTERED CU AND MAINLY BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LARGE
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVEN RIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE SHORT WAVE ENTERS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLE. THE
BEST WINDOW FOR STORMS AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES WILL BE BETWEEN
13 AND 17Z THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LATER WINDOW IN WACO.
A SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY BETWEEN 7
AND 14 KNOTS.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 75 88 73 87 73 / 70 80 80 50 10
WACO, TX 75 89 75 88 72 / 30 60 80 50 20
PARIS, TX 67 83 69 83 70 / 40 90 90 60 20
DENTON, TX 73 85 71 86 71 / 70 90 90 50 10
MCKINNEY, TX 71 86 72 86 70 / 60 90 90 50 10
DALLAS, TX 74 88 73 87 73 / 70 80 80 50 20
TERRELL, TX 72 89 73 88 71 / 50 80 90 60 20
CORSICANA, TX 73 89 73 86 72 / 30 60 80 50 20
TEMPLE, TX 74 89 75 86 73 / 20 50 60 50 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 86 70 85 70 / 80 80 80 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ091>095-101>107-117>123.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1047 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMBINED
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTED TO ANOTHER AFTERNOON
OF HIGH BASED CU. LIKE YESTERDAY...NO RETURNS ON AREA RADARS.
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE QUIET AS
WELL...SO FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL OVER THIS PERIOD...AND
INCLUDE CLOUDS AND TEMPS.
TONIGHT...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER ACROSS
THE STATE. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZE AND MODIFYING LOW LEVEL TEMPS. BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGES IN REGARDS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN TODAY. BUT THE CAP IS PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN BETWEEN
700-650MB SO THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FORMING FROM THE HIGH BASED CU
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. THIS CU IS AGAIN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
MDLS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE MEAN FLOW TRANSITION FROM WRN CONUS
UPR RDG/ERN CONUS UPR TROF TO A PACIFIC NW UPR TROF/CNTRL CONUS
UPR RDG/NE CONUS UPR TROF. INITIALLY...THE CNTRL CONUS UPR RDG TO
EXTEND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER AIR/CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT TO NE WI WITH LITTLE PCPN. HOWEVER...TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPR RDG REFOCUSES TO THE PLAINS AND BRINGS A NW
FLOW TO WI. THIS TRANSITION WOULD EVENTUALLY BRING COOLER/MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE FCST AREA. EXACTLY HOW ALL OF THIS
PLAYS OUT REMAINS THE BIGGEST FCST CHALLENGE.
EVEN THO HI PRES TO HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD NEW ENGLAND FRI NGT...NE
WI TO REMAIN UNDER ITS WRN FRINGE TO KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET. A
PREVAILING S-SW WIND WL CONT TO PULL WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR MASS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...JUST NOT AS FAST AS SOME OF THE MDLS
ADVERTISE. AS A RESULT...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE
55-60 DEG RANGE OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA.
ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY WHERE A WEAK CDFNT IS
FCST TO TRY AND PUSH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON SAT. PARTS OF
N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE ANY PCPN TO BE TIED TO THE FNT AND REMAIN TO
OUR NW THRU THE DAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S INLAND...MID TO UPR 70S CLOSER TO LAKE MI.
THIS CDFNT IS PROGGED BY THE MDLS TO GRADUALLY WIPE-OUT TO OUR NW
SAT NGT...PRIMARILY DUE TO A LACK OF PUSH BEHIND IT (WINDS ALREADY
TURNING SOUTH OVER MN. FURTHERMORE...ANY UPR SUPPORT PASSES BY TO
OUR NORTH. THEREFORE...PREFER TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR SAT NGT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MIN TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO MILDER
THAN FRI NGT WHICH WOULD PLACE MOST OF NE WI AROUND THE 60 DEG
MARK. AS AN UPR TROF BEGINS TO DIG S-SE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW ON
SUNDAY...THE DOWNSTREAM UPR RDG TO BUILD NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD WI WITH RISING UPR HEIGHTS AND WARMING 8H TEMPS. THESE
RISING UPR HEIGHTS WOULD BRING A CAP TO THE ATMOSPHERE AND PREVENT
ANY SHWRS/TSTMS FROM DEVELOPING. THE WARMING 8H TEMPS WL SEND MAX
TEMPS INTO THE LWR TO MID 80S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 70S LAKESIDE.
SOME DOUBT CREEPS INTO THE FCST BY MON AS THE STRENGTH OF THE UPR
RDG COMES INTO QUESTION. MDLS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF CRUISING
ACROSS SRN CANADA AND IF THE RDG WEAKENS AT ALL...PARTS OF NRN OR
CNTRL WI WOULD BE VULNERABLE TO A PASSING SHWR OR TSTM EITHER LATE
SUNDAY NGT OR ON MON. THE REST OF NE WI SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER DAY ON MON WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S AND MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S (AGAIN COOLER
NEAR LAKE MI).
TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY STARTING LATER MON NGT INTO TUE WITH
REGARDS TO A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROF AND CDFNT. WHILE THE LONG-
TERM MDLS AGREE NOW THAT THE UPR RDG WL REFOCUS TO THE ERN ROCKIES/
WRN PLAINS...THE MDLS CONT TO WAFFLE WITH HOW FAST TO SEND THE
SHORTWAVE TROF/CDFNT THRU WI. THE LATEST MDL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT
THE TUE/TUE NGT TIME FRAME WOULD BE THE BEST CHC OF SEEING AN AREA-
WIDE PCPN EVENT...WITH THE PCPN LINGERING INTO WED. TEMPS ARE NO
BARGAIN EITHER ON TUE AS TEMPS COULD REALLY WARM AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT. IF THIS FNT SLOW DOWN AT ALL...PARTS OF NE WI COULD BE
PUSHING THE 90 DEG MARK.
PCPN CHCS WOULD THEN TAPER OFF LATER ON WED AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF/
CDFNT DEPART. UNCERTAINTY WL CARRY OVER FROM TUE INTO WED UNTIL
ALL THE MDLS CAN CORRECTLY TIME THIS SYSTEM THRU THE REGION. BY
THU...HI PRES TO HAVE BUILT INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BROUGHT
COOLER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO NE WI WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...
WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS REDEVELOPING AGAIN LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE MAINLY 5000-8000 FT
AGL. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT LESS FOG THAN THE LAST TWO
NIGHTS...AS WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KTS. THEREFORE...WILL NOT ADD ANY FOG TO THE RHI TAF
SITE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
631 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMBINED
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTED TO ANOTHER AFTERNOON
OF HIGH BASED CU. LIKE YESTERDAY...NO RETURNS ON AREA RADARS.
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE QUIET AS
WELL...SO FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL OVER THIS PERIOD...AND
INCLUDE CLOUDS AND TEMPS.
TONIGHT...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER ACROSS
THE STATE. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZE AND MODIFYING LOW LEVEL TEMPS. BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGES IN REGARDS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN TODAY. BUT THE CAP IS PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN BETWEEN
700-650MB SO THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FORMING FROM THE HIGH BASED CU
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. THIS CU IS AGAIN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
MDLS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE MEAN FLOW TRANSITION FROM WRN CONUS
UPR RDG/ERN CONUS UPR TROF TO A PACIFIC NW UPR TROF/CNTRL CONUS
UPR RDG/NE CONUS UPR TROF. INITIALLY...THE CNTRL CONUS UPR RDG TO
EXTEND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER AIR/CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT TO NE WI WITH LITTLE PCPN. HOWEVER...TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPR RDG REFOCUSES TO THE PLAINS AND BRINGS A NW
FLOW TO WI. THIS TRANSITION WOULD EVENTUALLY BRING COOLER/MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE FCST AREA. EXACTLY HOW ALL OF THIS
PLAYS OUT REMAINS THE BIGGEST FCST CHALLENGE.
EVEN THO HI PRES TO HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD NEW ENGLAND FRI NGT...NE
WI TO REMAIN UNDER ITS WRN FRINGE TO KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET. A
PREVAILING S-SW WIND WL CONT TO PULL WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR MASS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...JUST NOT AS FAST AS SOME OF THE MDLS
ADVERTISE. AS A RESULT...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE
55-60 DEG RANGE OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA.
ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY WHERE A WEAK CDFNT IS
FCST TO TRY AND PUSH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON SAT. PARTS OF
N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE ANY PCPN TO BE TIED TO THE FNT AND REMAIN TO
OUR NW THRU THE DAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S INLAND...MID TO UPR 70S CLOSER TO LAKE MI.
THIS CDFNT IS PROGGED BY THE MDLS TO GRADUALLY WIPE-OUT TO OUR NW
SAT NGT...PRIMARILY DUE TO A LACK OF PUSH BEHIND IT (WINDS ALREADY
TURNING SOUTH OVER MN. FURTHERMORE...ANY UPR SUPPORT PASSES BY TO
OUR NORTH. THEREFORE...PREFER TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR SAT NGT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MIN TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO MILDER
THAN FRI NGT WHICH WOULD PLACE MOST OF NE WI AROUND THE 60 DEG
MARK. AS AN UPR TROF BEGINS TO DIG S-SE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW ON
SUNDAY...THE DOWNSTREAM UPR RDG TO BUILD NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD WI WITH RISING UPR HEIGHTS AND WARMING 8H TEMPS. THESE
RISING UPR HEIGHTS WOULD BRING A CAP TO THE ATMOSPHERE AND PREVENT
ANY SHWRS/TSTMS FROM DEVELOPING. THE WARMING 8H TEMPS WL SEND MAX
TEMPS INTO THE LWR TO MID 80S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 70S LAKESIDE.
SOME DOUBT CREEPS INTO THE FCST BY MON AS THE STRENGTH OF THE UPR
RDG COMES INTO QUESTION. MDLS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF CRUISING
ACROSS SRN CANADA AND IF THE RDG WEAKENS AT ALL...PARTS OF NRN OR
CNTRL WI WOULD BE VULNERABLE TO A PASSING SHWR OR TSTM EITHER LATE
SUNDAY NGT OR ON MON. THE REST OF NE WI SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER DAY ON MON WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S AND MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S (AGAIN COOLER
NEAR LAKE MI).
TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY STARTING LATER MON NGT INTO TUE WITH
REGARDS TO A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROF AND CDFNT. WHILE THE LONG-
TERM MDLS AGREE NOW THAT THE UPR RDG WL REFOCUS TO THE ERN ROCKIES/
WRN PLAINS...THE MDLS CONT TO WAFFLE WITH HOW FAST TO SEND THE
SHORTWAVE TROF/CDFNT THRU WI. THE LATEST MDL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT
THE TUE/TUE NGT TIME FRAME WOULD BE THE BEST CHC OF SEEING AN AREA-
WIDE PCPN EVENT...WITH THE PCPN LINGERING INTO WED. TEMPS ARE NO
BARGAIN EITHER ON TUE AS TEMPS COULD REALLY WARM AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT. IF THIS FNT SLOW DOWN AT ALL...PARTS OF NE WI COULD BE
PUSHING THE 90 DEG MARK.
PCPN CHCS WOULD THEN TAPER OFF LATER ON WED AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF/
CDFNT DEPART. UNCERTAINTY WL CARRY OVER FROM TUE INTO WED UNTIL
ALL THE MDLS CAN CORRECTLY TIME THIS SYSTEM THRU THE REGION. BY
THU...HI PRES TO HAVE BUILT INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BROUGHT
COOLER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO NE WI WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. SCT-BKN CUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE MAINLY 5000-8000 FT AGL. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT LESS FOG THAN THE LAST TWO
NIGHTS...AS WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KTS. THEREFORE...WILL NOT ADD ANY FOG TO THE RHI TAF
SITE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC TO THE OHIO VALLEY. WISCONSIN
REMAINS ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS TROUGH...WITH COOLER AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS LEADING TO A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING SHOWED A CAP LOCATED AT 750MB WHICH
HAS PREVENTED ANY SHOWER FORMATION SO FAR DESPITE BUBBLY LOOKING
CU. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES AWAY AND TEMPS
MODERATE...CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN
THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE STATE OF
WISCONSIN. DIURNAL CU WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MID-EVENING WHICH
WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALONG
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PLUMMET INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS. WARMER LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY...A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR...BUT MODIFYING
SOUNDINGS YIELD LESS THAN 100 J/KG OF ML CAPE. PLUS...A CAP AROUND
650MB WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. SO THINKING SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CU FIELD AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL POP UP LATE
IN THE MORNING. BUT DO NOT SEE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO INTRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
MEAN FLOW THRU THE END OF THE WEEK TO BE MAINLY ZONAL WITH THE
MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES RUNNING ACROSS EXTREME SRN CANADA. A
STRONG UPR TROF IS THEN FCST TO DIG S-SE ALONG BC/PACIFIC NW NEXT
WEEK AND ALLOW A PROMINENT UPR HI OVER THE ROCKIES TO BUILD EWD
ACROS THE PLAINS. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE TO BE WHETHER THIS UPR HI
CAN BUILD TOWARD WI OR WL WEAK UPR TROFFINESS DEVELOP OVER THE
E-CNTRL CONUS BETWEEN THE UPR HI TO OUR WEST AND AN UPR HI OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS DIFFERENCE IN SCENARIOS WL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE NOT ONLY OUR PCPN CHCS FOR NEXT WEEK...BUT ALSO HOW WARM
WE CAN GET.
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WL DISSIPATE ANY REMAINING CU FIELD...
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NE WI THU NGT.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT (SW AT 10-15
KTS)...THUS ONE MORE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SHAPING
UP. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG OVER LOW-LYING
AREAS LATE AT NGT AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD THIS TO THE FCST.
FOR NOW...HAVE FOCUSED ON THE COOL TEMPS WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE LWR TO MID 50S NORTH...GENERALLY MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SOME OF THE
MDLS CONT TO TRY AND GENERATE LIGHT PCPN ACROSS PARTS OF WI ON
FRI. THIS APPEARS MAINLY DUE TO A FASTER INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE UPR 50S. THERE IS NO
DISCERNABLE SURFACE BOUNDARY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OR JET MAX
EVIDENT TO TRIGGER ANY PCPN...THUS LEAVING WEAK WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO CREATE PCPN. JUST DO NOT SEE ENUF TO WARRANT A CHANGE
TO A DRY FCST...THUS HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FCST WHEN IT
COMES TO PCPN. MAX TEMPS WL CONT TO SLOWLY WARM WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM 70-75 ALONG LAKE MI...75-80 DEGS OVER INLAND LOCALES.
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FRI EVENING UPON SUNSET AS
DAYTIME HEATING WANES. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP A BIT
BETWEEN HI PRES OVER THE NE CONUS AND A CDFNT SITUATED OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. THIS WL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS FAR AS PREVIOUS
NGTS AS MOST OF NE WI TO SETTLE INTO THE 55-60 DEG RANGE. MUCH
LIKE THU NGT...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND AS THE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. MEAN FLOW IS FCST TO BE NEARLY
ZONAL BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES
RUNNING FROM THE PACIFIC NW E-NE ACROSS SRN CANADA. ON SAT...THE
MDLS DO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING TOWARD NRN SECTIONS OF
THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE CDFNT TO HAVE ESSENTIALLY STALLED OVER
THE NRN PLAINS. MAIN DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF
TO PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH (WRN ONTARIO)...THUS DO NOT SEE ENUF
FORCING TO JUSTIFY A POP FOR SAT. WEAK WAA TO PERSIST...THEREBY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO CONT EDGING UPWARD INTO THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S...BUT COOLER LAKESIDE.
AS THE STRONG UPR TROF DIGS S-SE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THE DOWNSTREAM UPR HI TO EDGE EWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS
AND EXTEND NEWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. ANY WEAK MID-LEVEL
SYSTEMS EJECTING FROM THIS DIGGING UPR TROF SHOULD PASS WELL NW OF
NE WI...LEAVIG A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS
ON SUNDAY WL CREEP UP A BIT MORE WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE
LWR 80S...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MI.
THE FCST BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE UNCERTAIN THE FARTHER WE GET
INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE MDLS ARE DIFFERING ON THE EXTENT OF THE UPR
RDG AND AMOUNT OF UPR TROFFING OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
INITIALLY...THE MDLS DO AGREE THAT THE UPR RDG AXIS TO STILL BE
AIMED TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON MON...THEREFORE KEEPING ANY
TSTM COMPLEXES AWAY. HOWEVER...THE MDLS ARE TRENDING TOWARD
PULLING THE UPR RDG BACK TO THE WEST AND ALLOWING THE MEAN FLOW TO
BEGIN TURNING TO THE NW. THIS WOULD LEAVE NE WI MORE VULNERABLE TO
EITHER A CDFNT OR A SHORTWAVE TROF TO MOVE SE TOWARD THE AREA AND
WHEN COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING WARMTH/MOISTURE...THIS WOULD BRING
INCREASING CHCS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
12Z ECMWF NOW PULLS THE UPR RDG ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE ROCKIES
AND SENDS A CDFNT THRU WI ON TUE. SINCE THIS IS SUCH A CHANGE FROM
ITS PREVIOUS RUN...HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW WHICH
BRINGS 20-30 PERCENT POPS ON TUE AND 20-40 PERCENT POPS ON WED TO
THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH TUE
AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWLY SHRINKING/
DISSIPATING LATE THIS MORNING OVER NE WISCONSIN. BUT DESPITE THIS
MID-LEVEL DECK BREAKING UP...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL GENERATE A SCT
TO BKN CUMULUS FIELD WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOLIDLY VFR. ANY CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
FLYING FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.
THEN MORE VFR CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY MORNING
WITH HEATING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1151 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
AS OF 230 PM...MAIN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER LAKE
HURON...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED BY
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RAP 500 MB HEIGHTS.
PIECES OF ENERGY HAVE BEEN ROTATING THE PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH
TODAY...HELPING TO FUEL ALTOSTRATUS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S...ANOTHER FALL LIKE DAY FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD SLOWLY IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND THE THREAT FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG. SEVERAL POSITIVE
FACTORS GOING FOR THE VALLEY FOG:
1. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH LOWEST 1.5 KILOMETERS
2. RECENT WET CONDITIONS AND PEAK OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
3. COOLER...CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...BECOMING CLEAR THIS EVENING
4. FORECAST T/TD DEPRESSIONS AROUND 5F THIS EVENING
A FEW NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDE TIME OF YEAR /MID JULY NOT AS
FAVORABLE/ AS WELL SOME INDICATIONS THAT WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE MAY STAY ELEVATED AT AROUND 10 KTS. FINALLY...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS TODAY AND QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW QUICKLY WE
CLEAR OUT. REGARDLESS...FEEL THAT CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR A
MS AND WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY FOG EVENT...WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA. PLAN ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND A DRIER AIR MASS. MAX
READINGS LOOK TO BE 5 TO 10F BELOW NORMAL...OR IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AS IT
SLOWLY TRAVERSES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
ARE VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE...AND IN FACT THE
WIND FIELD IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE / LIGHT TO 700 MB /. WHILE THERE
WILL BE A DAY OF DRYING WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH
THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
A RIVER VALLEY FOG EVENT. INCREASED FOG COVERAGE ALONG THE MS AND
WISCONSIN RIVERS...AND THIS COULD BE A CLASSIC FOG EVENT WITH SOME
LONGER PERIODS OF DENSE FOG.
BY FRIDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND
THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW RESPONSE TO BEGIN. HIGHS WILL NUDGE
UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...APPROACHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY WEEKS END.
THE 15.12Z MODEL CYCLE FOLLOWED THE 15.00 GROUP TOWARD A
WARMER...DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS ALLOWS 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB...REACHING +12 TO
+16C...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST...BY THIS WEEKEND. EARLIER RUNS
THAT SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPPING THROUGH THE FLOW ARE NOW
GONE OR WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA...WITH JUST A WEAK
REFLECTION IN THE SURFACE OF A FRONT ATTEMPTING TO PASS BUT NEVER
MAKES IT TO THE AREA. WITH THE WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN LOOKING
MORE LIKELY...CONTINUED THE TREND OF REMOVING OR DIMINISHING
PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND NOW THE WEEKEND IS
DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES
AS WELL GIVEN MORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
THE ONLY CONCERN AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF VALLEY
FOG AT LSE OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WITH JUST SOME PATCHY
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT AND APPEAR LIGHTER THAN WHAT THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING. TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE
STILL KIND OF FAR APART WITH IT BEING 8F AT 3Z. WITH OTHER LOW
LYING SPOTS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF FOG WITH OBS SHOWING
2-3SM...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT SOME VALLEY FOG WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ADDED A BRIEF PERIOD INTO THE TAFS AT LSE FOR
BETWEEN 11-13Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CUMULUS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
RECORD COOL HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY/TONIGHT AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
FOR LA CROSSE...
TODAY....FORECAST HIGH 71. RECORD 68 IN 1962
TONIGHT...FORECAST LOW 51. RECORD 49 IN 1912
FOR ROCHESTER...
TODAY....FORECAST HIGH 67. RECORD 67 IN 1962
TONIGHT...FORECAST LOW 50. RECORD 44 IN 1933
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...HALBACH
CLIMATE......AJ/RRS/ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1056 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
GETTING SOME PRETTY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING UP IN
RIVERTONS AREA THAT ARE DROPPING DOWN INTO OUR CWFA. STILL PRETTY
UNSTABLE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SPC...WE WENT WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 2 AM
WEDNESDAY. UPDATES SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST LARAMIE
COUNTY AND INTO LARIMER COUNTY IN COLORADO. RECEIVED SOME PEA
SIZED HAIL REPORTS SOUTH OF LARAMIE WHEN THESE STORMS MOVED INTO
ALBANY COUNTY EARLIER. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG INTERSTATE 25 STRETCHING FROM CHEYENNE TO
WHEATLAND. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG
THROUGH THE EVENING AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 50-55 KTS. WOULD
LIKE TO SEE THESE STORM CELLS BECOME MORE ISOLATED BEFORE GETTING
TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE SVR THREAT. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AGAIN ACROSS LARAMIE AND ALBANY
COUNTIES AFTER THIS STORM CLUSTER MOVES THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ANY INITIATION OF CELLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO AN UNSTABLE AND SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. WILL KEEP THE SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDS THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING.
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER JET TO THE SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AT SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF QPF
(0.25-0.75 INCHES) ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO LEFT
HEAVY RAIN IN THE FCST. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
MULTICELL STORMS MOVING FROM CONVERSE COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
PLATTE COUNTY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FROM
02-07Z. THE MODELS ARE LIKELY KEYING IN ON AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS COULD
BE SOME MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
SHORTWAVE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z WED. COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION ON WED MORNING SO TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 10-15
DEGREES COOLER. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE A GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER...THE STRONG TO SVR
THREAT WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
ON WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON THURS AFTN. THIS
WILL BE THE START OF A WELCOME BREAK FROM STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
A TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A STRONG UPPER HIGH FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN
EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY THOUGH WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH MAY
HINDER CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL TURN VERY WARM TO
HOT SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 700MB TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND 15-17C ACROSS THE CWA DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW COULD BRING LOWER CEILINGS TO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...IMPACTING KSNY AND KIBM AS WELL AS HERE AT KCYS.
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONCE
AGAIN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TO
THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EXIST ON FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AS A
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLAYCOMB
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
920 PM MST THU JUL 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING TREND WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON
FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD START TO RETURN TO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
SUNDAY. HOTTER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD AND THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DIMINISH. NEAR
RECORD OR RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THIS TIME...WITH THE BULK OF MAINLY CIRRIFORM
CLOUDS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY.
DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 18/04Z WERE MOSTLY IN THE 40S-
MID 50S F...AND THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY 10-20 DEGS F LOWER VERSUS 24
HOURS AGO. 18/00Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 1.10
INCHES...A DECREASE OF NEARLY 0.20 INCH VERSUS WED EVENING.
18/00Z NAM DEPICTS LIGHT QPF/S TO OCCUR BY DAYBREAK FRI NEAR THE
CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THE REST
OF TONIGHT PER THE 18/00Z NAM. MEANWHILE...VARIOUS RUC HRRR
SOLUTIONS DEPICT DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE RUC HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW SHOWERS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRI ACROSS ERN PIMA COUNTY
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA.
AT ANY RATE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS THE REST OF TONIGHT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEN DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MTNS AND SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. HIGH TEMPS FRI ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE
WITH A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF NORMAL.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/06Z.
ISOLATED TSRA/SHRA EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS FROM AROUND 17Z-18Z FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. MVFR VISIBILITIES
MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA...AS WELL AS BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KTS. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH BASES MOSTLY
AT 10-15K FT AGL WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEREAFTER...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BRING HOTTER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...SHOULD BE SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS THROUGH THE REGION. STILL WATCHING HOW THINGS
PLAY OUT SOUTH OF US AND HOW IT MIGHT HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FEATURE WE WERE DISCUSSING YESTERDAY
IS DEFINITELY HELPING TO PUSH A DECENT PUSH OF MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN GULF AS WELL AS MUCH DEEPER INTO SONORA OVER THE
PAST 20 HOURS. A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE HELPED INITIATE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX ACTIVITY AND A SERIES OF STRONG OUTFLOWS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR PUERTO VALLARTA...THEN UP THE GULF AND INTO SOUTHERN SONORA BY
LAST NIGHT. EXPECT MUCH STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
TRENDING FURTHER NORTH IN SONORA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS MAY
NOT BE HANDLING RESULTING OUTFLOW INFLUENCED MOISTURE FIELDS VERY
WELL...AND THAT STRONG WIGGLE IN THE FLOW MAY HAVE MORE TO WORK WITH
THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING FOR SATURDAY WHEN IT PUSHES UP
NEAR TO WEST OF OUR AREA.
BY NEXT WEEK OUR MAIN STORY IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO HEAT. A VERY
STRONG HIGH CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH
ECMWF PREFERRED DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH ENSEMBLE MEAN CORRELATION AND
VERY FAVORABLE NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION TRENDS (IT LOOKS VERY
REASONABLE...SOLID RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE...AND INCREASINGLY
LIKELY). STILL LOOKING AT FORECAST NEAR RECORD 850 MB TEMPERATURE
NEAR 35C WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH 850-700 THICKNESS REGRESSION
ANALYSIS SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE 112-114 RANGE BOTH DAYS IN
TUCSON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TEMPERATURES ABOVE MOS AND CLOSER
TO THESE VALUES. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO
WE WON`T GO QUITE THAT HIGH...BUT UP INTO THE 110-111 RANGE FOR NOW.
THIS IS STILL NEAR RECORD VALUES.
AFTER THE HEAT THE ECMWF (AGAIN VERY REASONABLY) SHOWS STRONG
MOISTURE SURGE INDICATORS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
321 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
242 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND LAKE
BREEZES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...UPPER WAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL UNDERCUT A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BUT ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H85
WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS
RISING TO AROUND 21-22C MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SURFACE HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 80S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EVEN 90S IF
CONDITIONS COME TOGETHER.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LOW PRECIP CHANCES CREEP UP MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA PER THE GFS WHICH DEVELOPS A LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY GENERATING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WHICH
MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. DESPITE THE QPF OUTPUT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ACROSS
THE CWA WITH MODEST HIGH BASED ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT LIKELY
WOULDNT SUPPORT ANY CONTINUED CONVECTION INTO THE AREA. WITH THAT IN
MIND...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS A
NOD TO THE GFS BUT WOULD THEN EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE DECAYING AS IT
MOVED INTO THE DRIER AND LESS UNSTABLE AIR LOCALLY.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD BE WELL CAPPED AS H85 THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS
OF AROUND 23C. NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE H5 HEIGHT TENDENCIES
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MN
AND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE BETTER FORCING AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE LOCATED. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE A CONCERN TUESDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF
MOISTURE BETWEEN H4 AND H6...BUT SHOULD SKY COVER END UP BEING LESS
THAN FORECAST MIGHT HAVE TO BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES INTO
THE LOW 90S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP APPEAR AROUND MIDWEEK AS A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE LOCALLY.
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO
THE MIDWEST WHILE THE COLD FRONT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SLOWLY
SAGS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED THOUGH THERE REMAIN MODEST TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WITH AT LEAST A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME
COOLER AIR RESULTING IN MORE SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SOUTHEAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS APPROACHING 10 KT MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CALM IN SOME
AREAS...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 6-10 KT RANGE LATER THIS
MORNING. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL HELP TURN WINDS MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CHICAGO METRO...INCLUDING ORD/MDW...AND MORE
EASTERLY NEAR THE LAKE IN NW INDIANA/GYY. SPEEDS MAY BE MORE
CONSISTENTLY AROUND 10 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS LAKE
INFLUENCE TAKES OVER. SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-CONFIDENCE IN A EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND MID/LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 10 KT.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...MVFR PSBL WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE
VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
319 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS JAMES BAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN REACHES OF LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO STEADIER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE WILL SEE A WEAK GRADIENT AND
THEREFORE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ONSHORE FLOW TO SET THIS AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A LARGER SCALE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE LEE OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES NORTHEASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY SUNDAY WITH THE
FAVORED TRACK FOR ADDITIONAL LOWS LOOKING TO BE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS MODULATED UP AND DOWN BY THE PASSING LOWS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
249 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday
Short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over
the Ozarks will track northeastward into the Ohio River Valley by
this evening. Models are in excellent agreement that showers/thunder
associated with this wave will remain well southeast of the KILX
CWA. The only impacts that will be seen this far north will be a
shield of high/thin clouds that will drift across the region
today. Despite the cloud cover, temperatures will rise a degree
or two higher than yesterday with afternoon readings topping out
in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
As has been suggested for the past several days, upper trough axis
will remain east of Illinois this weekend. As a result, will go
with a mostly sunny and dry forecast for both Saturday and Sunday
with highs reaching the lower to middle 80s.
LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday
Upper heights will rise substantially early next week as ridging
temporarily builds into the Midwest. With no appreciable forcing
for convection present, dry conditions are expected to persist
through Tuesday. Thanks to the rising heights, temperatures will
climb into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees while dewpoints
reach the lower 70s. Models are in relatively good agreement with
the eventual break down of the upper ridge by the middle and end
of next week, with only minor timing discrepancies concerning
FROPA. GEM is the fastest model, with cold front crossing the
Mississippi River Tuesday night. Meanwhile, GFS and ECMWF are
about 6 to 12 hours slower with front delayed until
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Given strength of upper ridge, prefer
the slower solution here. As a result, have maintained a hot/dry
forecast for Tuesday, then have introduced chance POPs across the
Illinois River Valley Tuesday night. Have hit POPs hardest on
Wednesday, then have shifted rain chances southward and out of the
area by Thursday. Once front passes, another cooler/less humid
airmass will arrive later next week with high temps dropping back
into the lower to middle 80s by Thursday.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1112 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
VFR conditions expected thru this forecast period (06z Sat). High
pressure continues to edge further off to our east late this evening.
Weak low and mid level flow present over the area with the clouds that
formed during peak heating today very slowly decreasing in areal
coverage. In addition, band of cirrus clouds streaking east across
our area as a weather system tracks well to our south. Little change
from the previous forecast with scattered mid level clouds around
most of the night based off the latest RAP forecast soundings. Cirrus
shield also holding on most of the night as well. Cumulus field should
build again during peak heating on Friday with bases in the 4000-6000
foot range with the clouds dissipating at or just after sunset.
Surface winds will remain light and variable tonight and then become
southeast at 6 to 10 kts on Friday.
Smith
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1235 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT
QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. NOT BAD FOR WHAT IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
OUR WARMEST TIME OF THE YEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BASICALLY NO MOVEMENT OF THE ISOBARS OVER
THE AREA...I.E. EXTREMELY QUIET WEATHER. SOME CU WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO THE EVE AGAIN AS HAS BEEN SEEN IN RECENT EVES. THERE MAY BE
SOME PATCHES OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BUT ALL IN ALL SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR BY OR NOT LONG AFTER SUNDOWN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL OUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
CARBON COPY WITH A LAKE BREEZE AGAIN ADVANCING INTO LAKE ADJACENT
COUNTIES. A CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE
MORE GROWTH TO SOME CU ON ANY AREAS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE SUCH AS
THE LAKE BREEZE...JUST DUE TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
NEARED. ABNORMALLY DRY AIR SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY STRAY SHOWERS FROM
DEVELOPING.
AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY EASE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS STATES. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. SO THE FORECAST AREA WILL BASICALLY REMAIN
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES OF INTEREST INCLUDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER-MID 80S THIS
WEEKEND AND MID-UPPER 80S MONDAY-WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOWER 90S. LAKE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW QUICKLY THAT PROGRESSES
INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE JET PATTERN WITH ANY PARENT LOW WELL TO
THE NORTH...HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS.
THIS FEATURE DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE SO JUST CONTINUE LOW CHANCE
POPS.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SOUTHEAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS APPROACHING 10 KT MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CALM IN SOME
AREAS...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 6-10 KT RANGE LATER THIS
MORNING. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL HELP TURN WINDS MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CHICAGO METRO...INCLUDING ORD/MDW...AND MORE
EASTERLY NEAR THE LAKE IN NW INDIANA/GYY. SPEEDS MAY BE MORE
CONSISTENTLY AROUND 10 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS LAKE
INFLUENCE TAKES OVER. SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-CONFIDENCE IN A EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND MID/LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 10 KT.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT...MVFR PSBL WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE
VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
227 PM...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS. A WEAK RIDGE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WINDS MAY TURN LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY OR EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE...WHERE THE WEAK
RIDGE MAY REMAIN. THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
TIGHTEN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1117 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 835 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
Quiet weather expected to continue through tomorrow as surface
high pressure edges slowly off to our east. Latest satellite
data indicating shortwave energy over the Southern Plains with
a large cloud and rain shield associated with the feature well
to our south. Some of the mid and high level clouds will track
over parts of central and southeast Illinois overnight but the
showers and storms will not affect any of our area through
Friday. The increase in the mid and high level clouds will keep
overnight lows from dropping as low as the past few nights, but
we will still average out below normal most areas again tonight.
The current zones are in good shape, so other than the usual
minor adjustments to the early evening temp trends, no other
changes were made which would require a ZFP upate.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1112 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
VFR conditions expected thru this forecast period (06z Sat). High
pressure continues to edge further off to our east late this evening.
Weak low and mid level flow present over the area with the clouds that
formed during peak heating today very slowly decreasing in areal
coverage. In addition, band of cirrus clouds streaking east across
our area as a weather system tracks well to our south. Little change
from the previous forecast with scattered mid level clouds around
most of the night based off the latest RAP forecast soundings. Cirrus
shield also holding on most of the night as well. Cumulus field should
build again during peak heating on Friday with bases in the 4000-6000
foot range with the clouds dissipating at or just after sunset.
Surface winds will remain light and variable tonight and then become
southeast at 6 to 10 kts on Friday.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 321 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
SHORT TERM...
A cool air mass remains over central and southeast Illinois today
although it has warmed a few degrees since yesterday. Scattered
cumulus cloud cover has developed as a result of a shallow
convective layer from around 800 to 700 mb (7000 to 10000 feet)
capped by a strong subsidence inversion. Overnight this convective
layer will dissipate with the loss of surface heating for another
cool night. Some additional high cloudiness will spread across
the area as a shortwave trough passes by to the south. Expecting
any precip with this feature to remain to the south with dry
conditions expected to continue along with a gradual warming trend
the next few days.
LONG TERM...
High pressure ridging will slowly build into the Western Plains
and Rocky Mountain areas over the weekend into next week bringing
a warming trend and increased humidity. Forecast soundings continue
to advertise a very stable/capped air mass which will be difficult
to produce any deep convection/thunderstorms. By Wednesday
disturbances propagating over the top of the ridge to the west
could potentially produce MCS activity bringing chances for
precipitation back to Illinois for the middle/later parts of next
week. Slightly cooler temperatures will likely accompany this
pattern.
Onton
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
313 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Split flow aloft with general broad trofiness over the eastern
CONUS. Main player is a southern stream impulse over the Ozarks,
which has started to pull a decent mid-level moisture plume up into
the lower Mississippi Valley. However, surface high pressure over
PA/NY continues to ridge back into the Ohio Valley, keeping
substantial low-level dry air in place.
Over the next couple days, the upper impulse will weaken as it
slowly lifts northeast into northern Ohio. An inverted surface trof
will develop over the Tennessee Valley and extend northeast into
Kentucky, and its placement will determine the northward and
westward extent of precip. The dry air in place will make the timing
of precip onset quite challenging, and this forecast may even be a
bit generous in ramping up POPs over south-central and east-central
Kentucky beginning mid to late morning.
The main adjustment from the previous forecast has been to give more
of an east-west oriented gradient in POPs. Only the HRRR shows much
in the way of POPs west of I-65, and based on current precip fields
it doesn`t appear to give enough respect to the dry air already in
place. WRF-NMM and the synoptic models show the best moisture feed
going into eastern Kentucky, and this is the preferred solution.
Will generally limit POPs to slight chance west of I-65, and our
southern Indiana counties may be hard pressed to get any precip
through Saturday. Model QPF has been overdone most of the summer, so
will limit POPs to around 50 with the highest chances along the
Cumberland Escarpment, and toned down the QPF from model depictions.
Temps will be modulated by clouds and possibly precip, so will go
just a tick below climo for the min tonight, but solidly below
normal for highs, especially today. Warmest readings today will be
in Indiana where cloud cover will be less and precip will be less of
a factor, while east-central Kentucky struggles into the mid/upper
70s.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Saturday Night - Sunday Night...
Weak upper level troughing will exist over the Ohio Valley, between
two expansive ridges to end the weekend. With the trough axis mainly
to our east during this time, most of the better moisture will
remain southeast of our CWA. Therefore, will continue to only
mention isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms mainly
across eastern and southern portions of our CWA. These showers and
storms will be mainly each afternoon and evening. Across southern
Indiana, expect things to to be dry. Look for lows in the mid and
upper 60s on Saturday night, becoming slightly milder by Sunday
night in the upper 60s to around 70. Look for low and mid 80s for
highs on Sunday.
Monday - Tuesday Night...
The impressive upper ridge over the western CONUS will begin to gain
a bit more influence over our CWA, helping to lift the trough off to
our NE as we start the new week. Will hold onto just a slight chance
of a shower or storm on Monday across our East, however expect a
mostly dry day and warmer as highs work into the upper 80s. Monday
night will be dry as any diurnally driven convection shuts off.
Expect a mild night with lows around 70. Tuesday will be a repeat of
Monday, with temperatures a degree or two warmer, bringing some
spots to the 90 degree mark. Best chance for 90s will be across our
western CWA where a lobe of ~19C 850 mb temps will settle. Will
continue the all too common slight chance of a shower or storm in
our south and east Tuesday afternoon/evening. Tuesday night lows
will be slightly milder in the lower 70s.
Wednesday - Thursday...
A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday and may push
across the region late Wednesday/Thursday, supporting the chance for
at least scattered thunderstorms to the end of the long term. This
front will be accompanied by stronger mid level flow, along with
what looks to be a fairly unstable environment. As a result, more
organized convection could be a possibility, and may have to monitor
potential for some stronger storms.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
High pressure centered over PA/NY will maintain a light, generally
easterly surface wind regime. Cirrus shield associated with an upper
disturbance over the Red River Valley has pretty well overspread
Kentucky.
Expect a gradual lowering of ceilings through the day on Friday,
with a 4-5k ft strato-cu ceiling by afternoon. Winds come around to
SE by midday but will remain solidly under 10 kt, if not 6 kt or
less. Precip chances and timing of onset are tricky due to quite a
bit of low-level dry air. Figure that the best shot for precip will
be in BWG/LEX with the better moisture feed. Have included VCSH and
high-end MVFR ceilings in BWG from late afternoon onward. Longer way
to go for any precip to get into LEX, so will keep it dry and VFR
there. Similar forecast for SDF but with higher confidence.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
433 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WAS
ALONG THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. TO THE E OF THE ROCKIES...THE
FLOW SPLITS WITH A TROF NOTED OVER THE MIDDLE AND LWR MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME...IT`S BEEN A QUIET NIGHT WITH UPPER MI STILL
UNDER WEAK PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES NOW CENTERED
OVER THE LOWER LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S AS OF 08Z.
BENIGN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES
SUGGESTS ANOTHER DRY DAY IS ON THE WAY. IT IS NOTED THAT THE NCEP
HIGHRES WRF/HIGHRES ARW ALONG WITH THE GFS AND HIGH RES NAM WINDOW
GENERATE SOME SPOTTY PCPN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...LOOKING
AT FCST SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A HEALTHY CAP ROUGHLY AROUND
650MB/12000FT. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
UPSTREAM AT KINL/KMPX. SO...TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH FAIRLY VIGOROUS CU DEVELOPING THAT WON`T BE ABLE TO
BUILD PAST THE CAP TO GENERATE ANY -SHRA. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MIXING TO AROUND 800MB WHICH YIELDS MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LWR 80S. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL COOLING NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...MAINLY ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW...BUT
OTHERWISE...S WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT THE MAIN COOLING
FROM THE LAKES WILL BE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALONG ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
WILL STILL BE WELL W OF UPPER MI AT 12Z SAT. WITH TIGHTER PRES
GRADIENT KEEPING S WINDS STIRRING...MINS WILL BE HIGHER TONIGHT. AT
THE LOW END...EXPECT LOW/MID 50S IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS WHILE THE
W AND NCNTRL SHOULD SEE LOW/MID 60S...WARMEST IN THE DOWNSLOPE
AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
QUITE A COMPLICATED MID-RANGE FORECAST AT HAND AS A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COMBAT A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OF UPPER MI...THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TO THE NW WILL KEEP SMALL
CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 994 HPA SFC LOW
CURRENTLY INDUCING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA
WILL TRACK EASTWARD TO FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO BY 12Z SATURDAY.
MID-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION. THE SFC
LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND LAY OUT A
DECAYING SFC TROUGH FROM NORTHERN MN TO SOUTHERN JAMES BAY.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN ON
SATURDAY...WITH MIXED SIGNALS ON HOW FAR EAST IT TRAVELS SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE PAINTING SOME QPF ACROSS THE FAR WEST CWA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP DISSIPATING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST
SOME PRECIP REACHING THE WESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WAA
WILL ONLY BE IN THE BEGINNING STAGES OF BUILDING A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE AREA.
SUNDAY...COMPLICATIONS IN THE FORECAST INCREASE BY SUNDAY AS
CONVECTION DECAYS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF ANY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW AND THE RELATIVE COLD WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD BRING
THE STALLED SFC TROUGH A TOUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR INCREASED CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...BY
THIS TIME 850HPA TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING AND BUILDING A STOUT CAP
ACROSS THE AREA. DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL
SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES. EITHER WAY...WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST.
HIGHER MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ON A WEAK LLJ.
HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
MONDAY...THE WEATHER HITS A REWIND BUTTON BY MONDAY AND PRODUCES A
SIMILAR SETUP WITH THE SAME QUESTIONS AS SATURDAY. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA BY 18Z MONDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TROUGH THE DAY. WITH THAT SAID...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A DECENT CAP AT AROUND 850HPA AND RESULTANT
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S. EVEN WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...THIS CAP WOULD BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO
OVERCOME. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF TO ACCOUNT FOR DECAYING PRECIP.
TEMPS ON MONDAY HAVE THE CHANCE TO GET QUITE WARM ACROSS THE WEST
HALF AS 850HPA TEMPS RISE TO OVER 20C. MAX TEMPS APPROACHING 90F
WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME PLACES. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP COULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN...SO DID NOT GO
WITH THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ATTM.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THIS POINT AS
A THIRD SHORTWAVE ROUNDS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...PRODUCING A
1006HPA LOW OVER UPPER MI BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF PLACES A
THE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MN...AND THE GEM FARTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
IL. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK THE BEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE
MODEL GUIDANCE LINES UP QPF THE BEST. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE DEVELOPING LOW WOULD GO WAS ENOUGH TO WARRANT
HIGH-END SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING WHEN GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON AS
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE E WHILE A SERIES OF LOW PRES
SYSTEMS/TROFS MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA. ONE TROF WILL FINALLY CROSS
THE AREA ON TUE BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. WINDS THRU THE FCST
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
OCNL PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS (15-25KT) AT THE HIGHER OBS
PLATFORMS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE E HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKE...MAINLY AFTER SOME PCPN OCCURS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1224 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
SMALL CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPEATURES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
CURRNET OBS. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME POSSIBLE FOG TONIGHT BUT IT
SHOULD BE LOCALIZED. MODELS CONSISTENT IN FIRST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. NEXT SHOT WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ALSO...IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. REST OF FCST
UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BOLSTERED BY THE WEAK
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE COOL NIGHTS OF NEGLIGIBLE WIND AND LOW DEWPOINTS. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY BRIEF AND ISOLATED FOG ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND TONIGHT. MODEL SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT AND WILL LET THE
EVENING SHIFT REEVALUATE.
FRIDAY WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH, WITH THE HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS OVER NE MINNESOTA. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH AROUND 25
MPH DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS
INDICATING SIMILAR HIGHS AS TO TODAY...BUT LEANED ON THE WARMER
NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BASED ON TRENDS SEEN THE
PAST FEW SHIFTS IN MODEL PERFORMANCE...THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS...AND THAT THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
AN INCREASING SW FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE/H85 TROUGH TRACKING ALONG THE BORDERLAND. HAVE
KEPT SMALL POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT/SAT NIGHT AS LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE TROUGH...WITH AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE...SWEEPS ACROSS NRN
MINNESOTA/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
GULF PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING H85 TEMPS AROUND 20 C TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME. HAVE CONFINED
POPS TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...AS LATEST
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG WARM NOSE AROUND H80 THAT SHOULD
LIMIT CONVECTION IN AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR.
LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...AS SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES ROUND THE TOP OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WRN CONUS/ROCKIES AND TRACK ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE IMPULSES WILL BRING A
BETTER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE LARGE
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH THIS FAR OUT SO HAVE CONTINUED
TO CARRY BROADBRUSH CHC POPS THROUGH EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE
SOME MORNING FOG AT HIB AND HYR BUT ELSEWHERE SHOULD STAY FOG FREE.
WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 20-25KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO AFTERNOON
HEATING. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
BRD/HIB/INL TAFS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 59 78 60 80 / 0 30 30 10
INL 63 80 63 86 / 50 30 20 40
BRD 64 81 65 86 / 30 30 20 10
HYR 60 81 61 82 / 0 10 20 10
ASX 59 81 61 83 / 0 20 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...STEWART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1150 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 917 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
Weak shortwaves moving southeastward through southeastern KS, southern
MO, OK and AR will continue to bring mid-high level cloudiness to
our forecast area for the remainder of tonight. Some of the light
showers across southwestern MO may move through southeastern MO
late tonight, although the operational models keep their qpf south
of our forecast area. The latest HRRR model run does have a few
light showers moving through southeast MO, mainly between 09-12z
Friday. Low temperatures will be slightly warmer tonight than the
previous night, although still below normal.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer tonight compared to last
night due to increased mid/high level clouds, but overnight lows
will still be around 5-10 degrees below average for mid-July.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
An upper vort max moving through MO/AR could spread some light rain
showers into southern/southeastern MO and southern/southwest IL
tonight and tomorrow, however the bulk of the precip should remain
south of the CWA. In general, a slow warming and moistening trend is
expected over the weekend with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s
by Sunday.
A strong western CONUS high pressure center is forecast to build
into the plains by the end of the weekend, placing MO/IL along the
eastern periphery of the ridge and under northwest flow aloft for a
few days during the early part of next week. Models depict a couple
of shortwaves moving through the flow which could support SHRA/TSRA,
but the predictability of such features tends to be low this far in
advance. There are some suggestions that a synoptic cold front could
move into MO/IL on Wed and provide a focus for afternoon/eve
SHRA/TSRA, but there are significant model differences regarding the
large scale pattern east of the ridge axis after 00z Mon. The 17/00z
ECMWF eventually develops a deep meridional H5 trough extending from
Lake Superior through MS while the 17/12z GFS develops a trough
closer to the East Coast. This forecast package generally follows
the recommended CR initialization for Sunday night through Thursday,
which yields seasonably warm and humid conditions.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
VFR flight conditions and light east-southeast flow will continue
to prevail across the area.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions and light east-southeast flow will continue
to prevail at Lambert.
Carney
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014
Here are the records for low temperature and low maximum temperature at
the primary climate sites.
LOW 7/17 LO MAX 7/17
St. Louis 57(1976) 76(1938)
Columbia 53(1976) 73(1938)
Quincy 54(1941) 72(1958)
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
137 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO
THIS WEEKEND, WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE GROWING FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
BETWEEN 6Z AND 8Z. WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT, AND IT LOOKS
PROBABLE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO (OR BELOW) THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS.
OUR DATABASE SHOWS SIMILAR PROFILES HAVE RESULTED IN AT LEAST
LIGHT FOG AT KELM.
6 PM UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AS TROF AXIS ROTATES
INTO EASTERN NY, AND DIURNAL HEATING WANES. RUC DEPICTS DECREASING
LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WILL ALLOW THE POPS TO DROP BELOW ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THE NEXT 2
HOURS, AND WILL FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISLD TO SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVED OVER C NY IN ASSCTN
WITH THE TROF AXIS MOVG RIGHT THRU NY/PA. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
ASCENT AT MID-LEVELS WAS LEADING TO SOME INSTABILITY THAT WAS
TRIGGERED BY THE DIURNAL HEATING. THIS ACVTY WILL LAST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AND THEN FADE FAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PV MAX PASSES
E AND THE UPPER TROF FLATTENS.
THE TROF AXIS PASSES E OF THE REGION AND HGHTS RISES..THIS WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS NY AND PA WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES
BY FRI AM. EXPECT THE HIGH TO REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU FRIDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS NY AND
PENNSYLVANIA KEEPING MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY WEST OF OUR
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PA AND FAR WESTERN NY... HOWEVER MODEL
CONSENSUS IS STRONG INDICATING THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY WEST OF CENTRAL NY. HAVE GONE WITH A 20 TO 30 POP FOR
SATURDAY MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-81 TO ACCOUNT FOR A SMALL
CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE FINGER
LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND JUST A LOW CHC POP FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RETURNING TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AND NOTHING MORE THAN LOW
CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEAK SFC-TO-UPPER LEVEL
FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. KEEPING ANY FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WEST OF OUR AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT
WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY BUT WILL
KEEP POPS ONLY IN THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE ECMWF
SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR QUITE WARM CONDITIONS BY MIDWEEK WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SKIES ARE CLEAR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A LGT/VRB WIND AT MOST
TERMINALS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR FOG TONIGHT AT ELM WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NOW WITHIN 1 DEGREE. EXPECT MVFR VSBYS TO SET
IN AFTER 08Z THEN DROPPING DOWN TO 1SM BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. BY 15Z
EXPECT JUST A FEW VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. WINDS WL BE OUT OF THE
WNW AROUND 5KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LGT/VRB AGAIN AFTER
SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
THU NGT THRU SAT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG ELM
DURING PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR...BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
434 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...
CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SEE UPDATED DISCUSSION AND MARINE
SECTION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER MUCH CONSTERNATION...DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND OVER LOUISIANA SEEMED TO
HINDER ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SE TX. CLOUD TOPS
ARE STILL WARMING AND RADAR RETURNS ARE STILL BENIGN. AM STILL
EXPECTING SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING BUT FEEL
THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED. THAT SAID...
THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUD TOPS OVER SE TX CONTINUE TO WARM RATHER RAPIDLY THIS MORNING
AND RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AND WEST OF SE TX WITH THE WESTERN AREA OF
PRECIP PUSHING SOUTH AND THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST...MOVING NE.
AT 08Z...A WEAK FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM KESF TO KDKR TO KJCT. ALL
THE MODELS PUSH THIS BOUNDARY TO THE COAST...BUT THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE LAST NIGHT SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS WEAK
THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE MUCH OF A PUSH SOUTH. AT 850 MB...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH 850 MB DEW PTS AT CRP AT 17 C
AND A LARGE AREA OF 15-16 C DEW PTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
A WEAK S/WV TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER EAST TEXAS AND ANOTHER STRONGER
S/WV OVER WEST TEXAS. AT 700 MB...A WELL DEFINED S/WV WAS OVER NE
OKLAHOMA AND THIS EXTENDED INTO SW TEXAS. DEEPER 700 MB MOISTURE
WAS OVER N TEXAS AND OK/ARKANSAS. A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS IS STILL
WELL TO THE WEST AND CONTINUES TO DIG TO THE SE. AT 250 MB...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS
STRONGLY DIVERGENT OVER EAST TEXAS. DESPITE THE RATHER BENIGN
RADAR THIS MORNING...THERE ARE JUST TOO MANY PARAMETERS IN PLACE
THAT FAVOR RAIN FOR TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN
THIS AFTN AND PW VALUES WHICH WILL PEAK NEAR 2.20 INCHES THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE TO 1.80 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. NONE OF THE
MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING WITH MAYBE THE HRRR THE
BEST OF THE BUNCH. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THIS MORNING AND THEN
TAPER POPS LOWER FOR THE AFTN. AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH...FEEL THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS WHERE GROUNDS ARE
SATURATED OVER THE NORTH...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENDING. FURTHER SOUTH...RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIGHT TO NON-EXISTENT
AND THIS AREA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN THIS
MORNING. NOTHING IS IN PHASE. AM LEANING STRONGLY TO CANCELING THE
FLOOD WATCH BEFORE ISSUING THE MORNING ZONES.
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON SATURDAY TO GET SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY BUT PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES SO
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DESPITE THE INCREASING HEIGHTS. THE
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SE
TX WILL LIE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THINK SE TX WILL HAVE
AT LEAST A SLT CHC OF PCPN EVERY DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS HINTING AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WHICH WILL
ENHANCE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES A BIT TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. ALTHO CURRENTLY NOT FORECASTING RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD ALLOW
DISTURBANCES OVER THE GULF TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND MOVE WEST
TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. 43
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE INFLOW INTO THE THUNDERSTORMS INLAND DECREASES AND THE
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WINDS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST...ONSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 88 74 92 77 93 / 50 20 20 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 88 74 92 77 92 / 80 20 30 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 80 88 81 89 / 80 20 30 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
359 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD TOPS OVER SE TX CONTINUE TO WARM RATHER RAPIDLY THIS MORNING
AND RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AND WEST OF SE TX WITH THE WESTERN AREA OF
PRECIP PUSHING SOUTH AND THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST...MOVING NE.
AT 08Z...A WEAK FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM KESF TO KDKR TO KJCT. ALL
THE MODELS PUSH THIS BOUNDARY TO THE COAST...BUT THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE LAST NIGHT SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS WEAK
THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE MUCH OF A PUSH SOUTH. AT 850 MB...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH 850 MB DEW PTS AT CRP AT 17 C
AND A LARGE AREA OF 15-16 C DEW PTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
A WEAK S/WV TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER EAST TEXAS AND ANOTHER STRONGER
S/WV OVER WEST TEXAS. AT 700 MB...A WELL DEFINED S/WV WAS OVER NE
OKLAHOMA AND THIS EXTENDED INTO SW TEXAS. DEEPER 700 MB MOISTURE
WAS OVER N TEXAS AND OK/ARKANSAS. A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS IS STILL
WELL TO THE WEST AND CONTINUES TO DIG TO THE SE. AT 250 MB...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS
STRONGLY DIVERGENT OVER EAST TEXAS. DESPITE THE RATHER BENIGN
RADAR THIS MORNING...THERE ARE JUST TOO MANY PARAMETERS IN PLACE
THAT FAVOR RAIN FOR TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN
THIS AFTN AND PW VALUES WHICH WILL PEAK NEAR 2.20 INCHES THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE TO 1.80 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. NONE OF THE
MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING WITH MAYBE THE HRRR THE
BEST OF THE BUNCH. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THIS MORNING AND THEN
TAPER POPS LOWER FOR THE AFTN. AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH...FEEL THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS WHERE GROUNDS ARE
SATURATED OVER THE NORTH...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENDING. FURTHER SOUTH...RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIGHT TO NON-EXISTENT
AND THIS AREA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN THIS
MORNING. NOTHING IS IN PHASE. AM LEANING STRONGLY TO CANCELING THE
FLOOD WATCH BEFORE ISSUING THE MORNING ZONES.
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON SATURDAY TO GET SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY BUT PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES SO
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DESPITE THE INCREASING HEIGHTS. THE
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SE
TX WILL LIE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THINK SE TX WILL HAVE
AT LEAST A SLT CHC OF PCPN EVERY DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS HINTING AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WHICH WILL
ENHANCE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES A BIT TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. ALTHO CURRENTLY NOT FORECASTING RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD ALLOW
DISTURBANCES OVER THE GULF TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND MOVE WEST
TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 88 74 92 77 93 / 50 20 20 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 88 74 92 77 92 / 80 20 30 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 80 88 81 89 / 80 20 30 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...FORT
BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...
MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
708 AM PDT Fri Jul 18 2014
.Synopsis...
Monsoon moisture will bring mostly cloudy skies and mostly below
normal temperatures through the weekend. There is a chance
of thunderstorms & showers...mainly over higher terrain into the
weekend including the Sierra, Coastal, and Northern mountains
surrounding interior NorCal.
&&
Discussion...
Monsoonal moisture is sticking around and we are looking at
another day of below normal temperatures along with the
possibility of mountain showers & thunderstorms. Instability looks
best from the Lassen Peak area southward along the Sierra crest
including the Lake Tahoe region into Yosemite. However, there may
also be some weak instability over the coastal range in western
Shasta & Tehama counties later this afternoon. Although
instability will be in place by late morning, the HRRR model is
showing that showers should start developing around 1 pm. Models
continue to show over an inch of precipitable water across our CWA
so any thunderstorms that develop should be wet with moderate to
heavy downpours. This pattern of afternoon/evening thunderstorms
will continue through the weekend with a lingering slight chance
into Monday (though areal coverage will be more limited). We may
see some extra "oomph" in thunderstorm activity on Sunday as the
GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models show a vort max swinging around an
offshore low and moving over NorCal.
Temperatures in the short term will remain near to below normal
and there won`t be too much day to day fluctuation in the daytime
highs or overnight lows. The warmest region will be the Northern
Sacramento Valley ranging from the mid 90s to low 100s with
Saturday being the peak heat. For the Central Sacramento Valley
southward into the Northern San Joaquin Valley (including the Sac
Metro area) highs will be upper 80s to mid 90s...again, with
Saturday being the hottest day. The Delta range of max temps will
generally be mid 70s to mid 80s thanks to the cooling Delta
Breeze. Mountain areas will have highs in the 70s and 80s except
down into the 60s along the Sierra Crest. Overnight lows for the
valley will be fairly persistent in the 60s except low 70s across
thermal belts in the foothills. JBB
.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)
No significant changes to the extended forecast. An upper level
trough offshore from the CA coast will bring a dry southwest flow
across Northern California. Temperatures gradually increase and
dry weather dominates as the four corners ridge strengthens aloft.
Daytime highs will be near normal on Wednesday and on Thursday,
looks like most of our CWA finally goes above normal by a degree
or two. JBB
&&
.Updated Aviation...
The swath of marine stratus that extended into Valley only developed
over eastern Sac county, sparing KSAC and KMHR and will erode by
15z. The stratus over the western Delta will erode around 17z-18z.
Bases of 012 and tops around 025 according to OAK sounding from
17/12z, KSUU METAR, and Bodega Bay coastal profiler.
TS expected later today over mountains. JClapp
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
425 AM PDT Fri Jul 18 2014
.Synopsis...
Monsoon moisture will bring mostly cloudy skies and mostly below
normal temperatures through the weekend. There is a chance
of thunderstorms & showers...mainly over higher terrain into the
weekend including the Sierra, Coastal, and Northern mountains
surrounding interior NorCal.
&&
Discussion...
Monsoonal moisture is sticking around and we are looking at
another day of below normal temperatures along with the
possibility of mountain showers & thunderstorms. Instability looks
best from the Lassen Peak area southward along the Sierra crest
including the Lake Tahoe region into Yosemite. However, there may
also be some weak instability over the coastal range in western
Shasta & Tehama counties later this afternoon. Although
instability will be in place by late morning, the HRRR model is
showing that showers should start developing around 1 pm. Models
continue to show over an inch of precipitable water across our CWA
so any thunderstorms that develop should be wet with moderate to
heavy downpours. This pattern of afternoon/evening thunderstorms
will continue through the weekend with a lingering slight chance
into Monday (though areal coverage will be more limited). We may
see some extra "oomph" in thunderstorm activity on Sunday as the
GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models show a vort max swinging around an
offshore low and moving over NorCal.
Temperatures in the short term will remain near to below normal
and there won`t be too much day to day fluctuation in the daytime
highs or overnight lows. The warmest region will be the Northern
Sacramento Valley ranging from the mid 90s to low 100s with
Saturday being the peak heat. For the Central Sacramento Valley
southward into the Northern San Joaquin Valley (including the Sac
Metro area) highs will be upper 80s to mid 90s...again, with
Saturday being the hottest day. The Delta range of max temps will
generally be mid 70s to mid 80s thanks to the cooling Delta
Breeze. Mountain areas will have highs in the 70s and 80s except
down into the 60s along the Sierra Crest. Overnight lows for the
valley will be fairly persistent in the 60s except low 70s across
thermal belts in the foothills. JBB
.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)
No significant changes to the extended forecast. An upper level
trough offshore from the CA coast will bring a dry southwest flow
across Northern California. Temperatures gradually increase and
dry weather dominates as the four corners ridge strengthens aloft.
Daytime highs will be near normal on Wednesday and on Thursday,
looks like most of our CWA finally goes above normal by a degree
or two. JBB
&&
.Aviation...
A swath of marine stratus has extended into the Delta south of
Travis and is expanding eastward to Rio Vista as of 1030z. Bases
of 012 and tops around 025 according to OAK sounding from 17/12z,
KSUU METAR, and Bodega Bay coastal profiler.
Expect ST to develop at KMHR by 12z, and these clouds are
expected to expand to foothills and over toward KSAC by 13z. Only
30% chance cigs make it to KSMF.
TS expected later today over mountains. JClapp
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1020 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SFC
RIDGE LOCATED N OF THE AREA. NE TO E FLOW EXPECTED TODAY IN THE
LOW LEVELS BUT WINDS ALOFT TURN TO W TO NW ABOVE 6000 FT.
RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS ALONG A CONVERGENT CLOUD LINE ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS INTO DUVAL COUNTY AND NEAR ST JOHNS.
BASED ON THIS AND LATEST RAP MODEL HAVE PLACED IN SOME 15-20%
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS OF NE FL. STILL THINK ONLY LOW CHANCE (20%) IS WARRANTED FOR
THE INLAND AND WESTERN ZONES AS PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH JUST A MINOR
TWEAK TO EXTEND POPS A BIT FURTHER S INTO MARION COUNTY AS AN
AXIS OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. THERE MAY ONLY BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR A TSTM TO DEVELOP
GIVEN THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE PER TLH AND JAX SOUNDINGS. A
SHORTWAVE WILL CLIP OUR NORTHWEST ZONES BY THIS EVENING AND BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO MAINLY SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA
SO A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AND A FEW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY N OF I-10. TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 80S IN ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE MID
90S WELL INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CU FIELD ALONG THE COASTAL NE FL AREA WITH
OCNL BROKEN MVFR CIGS WITH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AROUND TIL ABOUT 17Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES TODAY...WHICH IS TOO LOW TO PLACE ANY PRECIP IN AT
THE GNV TAF SITE.
&&
.MARINE...NELY WINDS NEAR 10 KT TODAY WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FT. ONLY
CHANGE WAS TO PLACE IN AN ISOLD SHOWER CHANCE OVER NE FL OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK WITH SURF OF LESS THAN 2 FT. HOWEVER...
SOME SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN RIPS COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE LAST 12-24 HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 93 70 89 71 / 10 10 50 50
SSI 87 76 86 76 / 10 0 20 30
JAX 90 72 90 73 / 10 0 40 40
SGJ 88 74 88 75 / 20 0 30 30
GNV 93 71 91 72 / 10 10 40 40
OCF 93 71 93 72 / 10 10 30 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/STRUBLE/MCALLISTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1019 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE DISSIPATING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM...500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE NORTH OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING FOR RIDGING TO OCCUR AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD
PROPAGATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TODAY. AS A RESULT...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NC/SOUTHERN VA/MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD FARTHER INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATEST 12Z CHS
SOUNDING ILLUSTRATES NICELY THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN ADDITION TO
A WELL-DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WILL ALSO NOTE THE
SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUST OVER 1 INCH AND
THE CONTINUATION OF A DROP IN DEWPOINTS AS THEY MIX OUT DOWN INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. EVEN THOUGH LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS POPCORN-TYPE
CONVECTION FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED AIR MASS STATUS AND AFTER AN
ADJUSTMENT TO THE LATEST SKEW-T FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION STRONGLY STAYS IN PLACE WITH VERY LOW CAPE...MARGINAL
LI...AND OTHER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THUS...AM NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH WILL NOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS...MAINLY IN GA...AS A DISTURBANCE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM
THE GULF STATES.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT/SFC LOW OFFSHORE.
THUS...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 INLAND WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CONDITIONS LOOK TO GET MORE UNSETTLED LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE AREA AND A STATIONARY FRONT STALLS OUT NEAR THE COAST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...A PATTERN NOT THAT TYPICAL FOR LATE
JULY. IN ANY EVENT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ENHANCED SUNDAY...AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE
STALLED FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT SEEMS TO LINGER NEAR THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT
TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE THERE WILL BE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP MOST CONVECTION INLAND BUT
BY THURSDAY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND THUS CHANCES SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER AT THE
COAST. ON FRIDAY THE FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST INLAND BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS STRENGTH AND THUS RAIN CHANCES AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE ENHANCED
BEGINNING SUNDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE AND A STALLED FRONT REMAIN OVER
THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AS OF 1000 AM...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS
AS THE WATERS REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN A STALLED FRONT/SFC LOW
OFFSHORE AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. SUSTAINED
WINDS THIS MORNING ARE AOB 15 KTS...BUT WILL SEE THIS DECREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT PER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN WATERS WHICH WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT GIVEN
LARGER INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHEAST FETCH.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD LEADING TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERE WILL BE THE TYPICAL ENHANCEMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST HOWEVER DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE BUT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS
MOSTLY 3 FT OR LESS...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SGL.ILM
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...SGL.ILM/RJB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1048 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Some mid level clouds lingering as a result of a quick shortwave
rippling through the region. For the most part, forecast is doing
well. Temps on track to be a couple degrees above yesterday and
some fair weather clouds expected to cover the sky later this
afternoon. Warm and weak winds overall. No updates anticipated.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 650 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours in central
and eastern IL.
A shortwave trough moving into the lower Ohio Valley from the
Ozarks area will continue to spread BKN cirrus across central and
southern IL this morning. Many of the short range models,
including the SREF, HRRR and NAM12 are indicating the development
of SCT cumulus by late morning/toward noon. Low level
moisture/favorable weak lift should be enough for BKN VFR cumulus
to form early this afternoon particularly from KBMI to KCMI. This
may extend as far west as the IL River valley, but will hold off
mention at KPIA for now as confidence is lower here.
The cumulus field is expected to go through its typical diurnal
dissipation around dusk. Some of the numerical guidance is hinting
at MVFR visibility toward daybreak Saturday as low level moisture
increases enough to possibly produce some light fog. Held off on
mention in the TAFs for now and will monitor for future forecasts.
Miller
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday
Short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over
the Ozarks will track northeastward into the Ohio River Valley by
this evening. Models are in excellent agreement that showers/thunder
associated with this wave will remain well southeast of the KILX
CWA. The only impacts that will be seen this far north will be a
shield of high/thin clouds that will drift across the region
today. Despite the cloud cover, temperatures will rise a degree
or two higher than yesterday with afternoon readings topping out
in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
As has been suggested for the past several days, upper trough axis
will remain east of Illinois this weekend. As a result, will go
with a mostly sunny and dry forecast for both Saturday and Sunday
with highs reaching the lower to middle 80s.
LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday
Upper heights will rise substantially early next week as ridging
temporarily builds into the Midwest. With no appreciable forcing
for convection present, dry conditions are expected to persist
through Tuesday. Thanks to the rising heights, temperatures will
climb into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees while dewpoints
reach the lower 70s. Models are in relatively good agreement with
the eventual break down of the upper ridge by the middle and end
of next week, with only minor timing discrepancies concerning
FROPA. GEM is the fastest model, with cold front crossing the
Mississippi River Tuesday night. Meanwhile, GFS and ECMWF are
about 6 to 12 hours slower with front delayed until
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Given strength of upper ridge, prefer
the slower solution here. As a result, have maintained a hot/dry
forecast for Tuesday, then have introduced chance POPs across the
Illinois River Valley Tuesday night. Have hit POPs hardest on
Wednesday, then have shifted rain chances southward and out of the
area by Thursday. Once front passes, another cooler/less humid
airmass will arrive later next week with high temps dropping back
into the lower to middle 80s by Thursday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
856 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
242 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND LAKE
BREEZES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...UPPER WAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL UNDERCUT A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BUT ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H85
WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS
RISING TO AROUND 21-22C MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SURFACE HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 80S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EVEN 90S IF
CONDITIONS COME TOGETHER.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LOW PRECIP CHANCES CREEP UP MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA PER THE GFS WHICH DEVELOPS A LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY GENERATING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WHICH
MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. DESPITE THE QPF OUTPUT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ACROSS
THE CWA WITH MODEST HIGH BASED ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT LIKELY
WOULDNT SUPPORT ANY CONTINUED CONVECTION INTO THE AREA. WITH THAT IN
MIND...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS A
NOD TO THE GFS BUT WOULD THEN EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE DECAYING AS IT
MOVED INTO THE DRIER AND LESS UNSTABLE AIR LOCALLY.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD BE WELL CAPPED AS H85 THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS
OF AROUND 23C. NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE H5 HEIGHT TENDENCIES
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MN
AND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE BETTER FORCING AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE LOCATED. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE A CONCERN TUESDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF
MOISTURE BETWEEN H4 AND H6...BUT SHOULD SKY COVER END UP BEING LESS
THAN FORECAST MIGHT HAVE TO BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES INTO
THE LOW 90S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP APPEAR AROUND MIDWEEK AS A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE LOCALLY.
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO
THE MIDWEST WHILE THE COLD FRONT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SLOWLY
SAGS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED THOUGH THERE REMAIN MODEST TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WITH AT LEAST A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME
COOLER AIR RESULTING IN MORE SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST
MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KT.
MDB/MTF
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. LIGHT/VARIABLE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD SOUTHEAST
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SPEEDS LOOK SLOW TO
COME UP THROUGH THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...LAKE INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TURNING WINDS EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
IL SHORE AND SUBSEQUENTLY AT ORD/MDW DURING THE MID OR LATE
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS MAY COME UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT
THOUGH ANY GUSTS WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY POTENTIAL TIMING ADJUSTMENTS ETC. GYY WILL LIKELY
TURN MORE EAST OR EVEN NE EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THEIR
PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE. SPEEDS WILL EASE AT ALL SITES WITH
NIGHTFALL THIS EVENING THEN LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT SATURDAY MORNING
WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING FROM NEAR MDW BACK TO VYS AND POINTS
SOUTH. SOME FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID MORNING
WITH BASES LIFTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGH IN SHIFT TO EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND MEDIUM IN TIMING. MEDIUM THAT 10 KT SPEEDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY OCCUR WITH SHIFT.
MDB/MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
319 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS JAMES BAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN REACHES OF LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO STEADIER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE WILL SEE A WEAK GRADIENT AND
THEREFORE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ONSHORE FLOW TO SET THIS AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A LARGER SCALE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE LEE OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES NORTHEASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY SUNDAY WITH THE
FAVORED TRACK FOR ADDITIONAL LOWS LOOKING TO BE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS MODULATED UP AND DOWN BY THE PASSING LOWS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
650 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday
Short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over
the Ozarks will track northeastward into the Ohio River Valley by
this evening. Models are in excellent agreement that showers/thunder
associated with this wave will remain well southeast of the KILX
CWA. The only impacts that will be seen this far north will be a
shield of high/thin clouds that will drift across the region
today. Despite the cloud cover, temperatures will rise a degree
or two higher than yesterday with afternoon readings topping out
in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
As has been suggested for the past several days, upper trough axis
will remain east of Illinois this weekend. As a result, will go
with a mostly sunny and dry forecast for both Saturday and Sunday
with highs reaching the lower to middle 80s.
LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday
Upper heights will rise substantially early next week as ridging
temporarily builds into the Midwest. With no appreciable forcing
for convection present, dry conditions are expected to persist
through Tuesday. Thanks to the rising heights, temperatures will
climb into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees while dewpoints
reach the lower 70s. Models are in relatively good agreement with
the eventual break down of the upper ridge by the middle and end
of next week, with only minor timing discrepancies concerning
FROPA. GEM is the fastest model, with cold front crossing the
Mississippi River Tuesday night. Meanwhile, GFS and ECMWF are
about 6 to 12 hours slower with front delayed until
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Given strength of upper ridge, prefer
the slower solution here. As a result, have maintained a hot/dry
forecast for Tuesday, then have introduced chance POPs across the
Illinois River Valley Tuesday night. Have hit POPs hardest on
Wednesday, then have shifted rain chances southward and out of the
area by Thursday. Once front passes, another cooler/less humid
airmass will arrive later next week with high temps dropping back
into the lower to middle 80s by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 650 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours in central
and eastern IL.
A shortwave trough moving into the lower Ohio Valley from the
Ozarks area will continue to spread BKN cirrus across central and
southern IL this morning. Many of the short range models,
including the SREF, HRRR and NAM12 are indicating the development
of SCT cumulus by late morning/toward noon. Low level
moisture/favorable weak lift should be enough for BKN VFR cumulus
to form early this afternoon particularly from KBMI to KCMI. This
may extend as far west as the IL River valley, but will hold off
mention at KPIA for now as confidence is lower here.
The cumulus field is expected to go through its typical diurnal
dissipation around dusk. Some of the numerical guidance is hinting
at MVFR visibility toward daybreak Saturday as low level moisture
increases enough to possibly produce some light fog. Held off on
mention in the TAFs for now and will monitor for future forecasts.
Miller
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
908 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
STRATUS DECK IS SLOW TO CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING BUT LATEST VIZ
IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOUTH AND WEST COUNTIES WILL BEGIN TO SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH NORTH AND EAST
COUNTIES CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING. REMOVED FOG WORDING IN
LATEST ZONE UPDATE MENTIONING GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER COLORADO ON SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH ULTIMATELY WORKS INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EVENING.
MODEL ALSO HINTS AS SOME DISCRETE STRONGER STORMS WITH BOTH
HRRR/NAM INDICATING 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH CAPE OF
1500-1800 J/KG. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL INCREASE
POPS THIS EVENING OVER NW KANSAS COUNTIES. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST SO STORMS WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES ONCE WORKING PAST THE FIRST 1-2
TIERS OF KANSAS COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE
COOLER/WETTER WEATHER THE LAST FEW DAYS. UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE IS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL WYOMING THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE TRI-STATE AREA LATER TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
CLOUD SHIELD DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. FOG IS ALSO MOVING INTO
THE AREA WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A MILE IN
SOME LOCATIONS.
TODAY THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM. THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING WILL MOVE OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN 2/3S OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FURTHER
WEST A DRY LINE WILL MOVE TO THE WEST EDGE OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND STALL. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES LIFT WILL INCREASE
OVER THE DRY LINE AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVERHEAD. POINT SOUNDINGS OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO INDICATE
STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD. THE BEST SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER...WITH VALUES OF 1000-2000J/KG. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SOMEWHAT LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSION OF
5F AT THE LCL LEVEL OVER THE HIGHER CAPE. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA WHERE THE
DEFORMATION AT 700MB IS BEST...SO EXPECT THIS TO BE THE FAVORED
LOCATION FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ENVIRONMENT
CAPPED EAST OF THE HWY 25 CORRIDOR...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORMS TO
MOVE INTO THAT PART OF THE AREA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST OF
HWY 25. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
UP TO HALF DOLLAR IN SIZE.
THIS EVENING STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DECLINE AS THE COOLING
TEMPERATURES STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT AND LOWER MIDLEVEL DEW POINTS
MOVE IN.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH LIFT
STRENGTHENING OVER THE DRY LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA THE DRY LINE WILL FOLLOW...STALLING JUST EAST OF
THE STATE LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE
LIFT OVER THE DRY LINE WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF I-70 AND EAST OF THE CO
BORDER...SO AM THINKING THAT WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT.
THE AXIS OF LIFT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE AXIS OF SURFACE
INSTABILITY. EVEN SO...SURFACE BASED CAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE AREA WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST WILL BE 1500-2500J/KG.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE 30KTS WHICH WILL BE SUITABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO HEN
EGG SIZE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.
CURRENTLY AM THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE SOUTH
OF I-70 AND EAST OF THE CO BORDER. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A SERIES OF WEAK DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENING DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
PRESENT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT POSITION AND HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN COLORADO COULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY
NIGHT. KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE. HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE IN COMBINATION
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A
BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL EVOLVE OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES
EACH DAY. THE RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND FLATTEN OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING OF THE
LEE TROUGH. WEAK FORCING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SHORTWAVE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION ON THURSDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THE POSITION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAFS. GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE TAFS WILL BE THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO WHEN A
SMALL CHANGE IN CEILING HEIGHT WILL MEAN A CHANGE IN CATEGORY.
SINCE THERE IS ONLY A HUNDRED FOOT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE LATEST
OBSERVATION AND THE NEXT CATEGORY WILL LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER
CATEGORY IN THE KGLD TAF FOR THE FIRST HOUR. AFTER THAT CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT EARLY
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NEAR
KGLD THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER AM THINKING THE
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF
YET. STRONG ERRATIC WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORM THAT
MOVES NEAR THE TAF SITE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DLF
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
604 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
An upper level ridge of high pressure will start to build across the
Desert Southwest throughout the short term with an upper level long
wave trough moving through the eastern United States. Mid levels of
the atmosphere will be fairly dry with northwest winds. Towards the
surface, an area of high pressure will be located east of the CWA
allowing southerly winds to be observed across western Kansas today
through tonight. Low level clouds and possibly patchy fog will
dissipate quickly this morning from west to east leaving partly
cloudy skies by this afternoon. With sunlight actually breaking
through today, highs are progged to range from the upper 70s across
central and south central Kansas to mid 80s across the KS/CO border.
Models suggest a weak upper level shortwave to move through the
Central Rockies into the Central High Plains this evening. This may
produce a few thunderstorms across northwest Kansas, however, it
doesn`t look like these storms will make it into west central Kansas
and I have left POPs low. Partly cloudy skies are then expected
overnight with lows in the lower 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
A surface trough of low pressure along the lee of the Rockies
will slide east into western Kansas over the weekend period. This
surface boundary will be the main focusing mechanism for any late
day thunderstorms that may develop either on Saturday or Sunday
given the afternoon instability and any subtle upper level wave
crossing the Central High Plains. Confidence is low on timing and
track of any of these subtle upper level features so will retain
small chances for evening thunderstorms near this surface boundary
and given the expected track of any storm which may develop keep
precipitation chances mainly across far western and possibly north
central Kansas each evening. In addition temperatures should be
returning into at least the mid 90s based on the warming trend
forecast in the 850mb to 700mb level and afternoon highs based on
the mean mixing depth temperature.
The GFS and ECMWF were in a little better agreement with the nose
of an upper level jet streak moving across eastern Colorado and
western Kansas on Monday. Once again surface boundary will be in
place across western Kansas as well as late day instability. Also
given better upper level dynamics present Monday night will favor
slightly better chances for thunderstorms Monday night for much of
western Kansas. Mid level temperatures however will be warmer than
the past few days, 700mb temperatures at 00z Tuesday are forecast
to range from around +16c near the I-70 corridor to +18c near
Elkhart, so thunderstorms may be more difficult to develop across
far southwest Kansas.
An upper level high will redevelop/retrograde to Colorado/New
Mexico by mid week and any upper level system rotating around this
upper level high is currently expected to track north/northeast of
southwest Kansas. 850mb to 700mb temperatures will continue to
warm a few more degrees through mid week and the 850mb
temperatures from the GFS indicate temperatures ranging from 30c
to 34c by 00z Thursday. If the GFS verifies then highs near 100
degrees will be common across most of western Kansas. At this time
however will not go that warm given that the ECMWF indicates
slightly cooler 850mb to 700mb temperatures mid week and also
given the past rainfall this may limit the warm up.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
Southerly winds will gradually increase to around 15 knots by 18z
as a surface trough of low pressure develops across eastern
Colorado. Low level moisture will slowly erode with 06z NAM BUFR
soundings and the latest HRRR indicating VFR conditions will
develop around 14z at Garden City then between 15z and 18z at
Dodge City and Hays.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 79 62 89 68 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 82 62 91 68 / 0 0 10 10
EHA 85 65 93 68 / 10 10 20 30
LBL 82 63 92 69 / 0 0 10 20
HYS 79 62 90 68 / 0 0 0 20
P28 78 62 88 69 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1121 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued 1120 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Updated the forecast to expand POPs a little farther west. Most of
the high-res models still indicate that scattered precip will be
most likely east of I-65 today, but they do show some isolated
showers/sprinkles west of I-65 as well. Reduced thunder chances to
isolated as lapse rates don`t look all that impressive for this
afternoon and the lack of heating due to clouds won`t help. Lowered
high temps over most of KY as clouds have kept most places in the
upper 60s to around 70 for much of the morning hours. Thus, think
that high temps this afternoon will range from mid 70s to around 80
over south Indiana under only partly cloudy skies to low to mid 70s
for central KY in the thick of the cloud cover.
Issued 750 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Updated the forecast to bring in rain showers over south central KY
earlier than previously forecast. KY counties along the TN border
should see some where from a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of
rain this morning. Precipitation chances are still on track to
increase across the rest of KY this afternoon mainly east of I-65.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Split flow aloft with general broad trofiness over the eastern
CONUS. Main player is a southern stream impulse over the Ozarks,
which has started to pull a decent mid-level moisture plume up into
the lower Mississippi Valley. However, surface high pressure over
PA/NY continues to ridge back into the Ohio Valley, keeping
substantial low-level dry air in place.
Over the next couple days, the upper impulse will weaken as it
slowly lifts northeast into northern Ohio. An inverted surface trof
will develop over the Tennessee Valley and extend northeast into
Kentucky, and its placement will determine the northward and
westward extent of precip. The dry air in place will make the timing
of precip onset quite challenging, and this forecast may even be a
bit generous in ramping up POPs over south-central and east-central
Kentucky beginning mid to late morning.
The main adjustment from the previous forecast has been to give more
of an east-west oriented gradient in POPs. Only the HRRR shows much
in the way of POPs west of I-65, and based on current precip fields
it doesn`t appear to give enough respect to the dry air already in
place. WRF-NMM and the synoptic models show the best moisture feed
going into eastern Kentucky, and this is the preferred solution.
Will generally limit POPs to slight chance west of I-65, and our
southern Indiana counties may be hard pressed to get any precip
through Saturday. Model QPF has been overdone most of the summer, so
will limit POPs to around 50 with the highest chances along the
Cumberland Escarpment, and toned down the QPF from model depictions.
Temps will be modulated by clouds and possibly precip, so will go
just a tick below climo for the min tonight, but solidly below
normal for highs, especially today. Warmest readings today will be
in Indiana where cloud cover will be less and precip will be less of
a factor, while east-central Kentucky struggles into the mid/upper
70s.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Saturday Night - Sunday Night...
Weak upper level troughing will exist over the Ohio Valley, between
two expansive ridges to end the weekend. With the trough axis mainly
to our east during this time, most of the better moisture will
remain southeast of our CWA. Therefore, will continue to only
mention isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms mainly
across eastern and southern portions of our CWA. These showers and
storms will be mainly each afternoon and evening. Across southern
Indiana, expect things to to be dry. Look for lows in the mid and
upper 60s on Saturday night, becoming slightly milder by Sunday
night in the upper 60s to around 70. Look for low and mid 80s for
highs on Sunday.
Monday - Tuesday Night...
The impressive upper ridge over the western CONUS will begin to gain
a bit more influence over our CWA, helping to lift the trough off to
our NE as we start the new week. Will hold onto just a slight chance
of a shower or storm on Monday across our East, however expect a
mostly dry day and warmer as highs work into the upper 80s. Monday
night will be dry as any diurnally driven convection shuts off.
Expect a mild night with lows around 70. Tuesday will be a repeat of
Monday, with temperatures a degree or two warmer, bringing some
spots to the 90 degree mark. Best chance for 90s will be across our
western CWA where a lobe of ~19C 850 mb temps will settle. Will
continue the all too common slight chance of a shower or storm in
our south and east Tuesday afternoon/evening. Tuesday night lows
will be slightly milder in the lower 70s.
Wednesday - Thursday...
A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday and may push
across the region late Wednesday/Thursday, supporting the chance for
at least scattered thunderstorms to the end of the long term. This
front will be accompanied by stronger mid level flow, along with
what looks to be a fairly unstable environment. As a result, more
organized convection could be a possibility, and may have to monitor
potential for some stronger storms.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Mid-level moisture feed is becoming better established over the
Tennessee Valley, so expect thickening clouds with lowering ceilings
through the day. However, low-level dry air should keep conditions
VFR. Will introduce VCSH by early afternoon at BWG, and mid/late
afternoon at LEX, but without any restrictions to ceiling or vis.
SDF should remain dry with the moisture return suppressed just far
enough south and east.
With a weak surface trough parked from near BWG to near LEX
overnight, and low-level moisture continuing to increase, look for
restrictions in ceiling and/or visibility to develop toward daybreak
on Saturday. NAM is bullish as usual with the low ceiling/vis, but
the GFS actually agrees fairly closely, which is enough to draw more
attention. Will go with MVFR conditions to at least show the trend,
but IFR certainly can`t be ruled out, especially if there is decent
rainfall this afternoon. BWG should see conditions deteriorate the
most, with both ceiling and vis right on the borderline of IFR.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
757 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued 750 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Updated the forecast to bring in rain showers over south central KY
earlier than previously forecast. KY counties along the TN border
should see some where from a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of
rain this morning. Precipitation chances are still on track to
increase across the rest of KY this afternoon mainly east of I-65.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Split flow aloft with general broad trofiness over the eastern
CONUS. Main player is a southern stream impulse over the Ozarks,
which has started to pull a decent mid-level moisture plume up into
the lower Mississippi Valley. However, surface high pressure over
PA/NY continues to ridge back into the Ohio Valley, keeping
substantial low-level dry air in place.
Over the next couple days, the upper impulse will weaken as it
slowly lifts northeast into northern Ohio. An inverted surface trof
will develop over the Tennessee Valley and extend northeast into
Kentucky, and its placement will determine the northward and
westward extent of precip. The dry air in place will make the timing
of precip onset quite challenging, and this forecast may even be a
bit generous in ramping up POPs over south-central and east-central
Kentucky beginning mid to late morning.
The main adjustment from the previous forecast has been to give more
of an east-west oriented gradient in POPs. Only the HRRR shows much
in the way of POPs west of I-65, and based on current precip fields
it doesn`t appear to give enough respect to the dry air already in
place. WRF-NMM and the synoptic models show the best moisture feed
going into eastern Kentucky, and this is the preferred solution.
Will generally limit POPs to slight chance west of I-65, and our
southern Indiana counties may be hard pressed to get any precip
through Saturday. Model QPF has been overdone most of the summer, so
will limit POPs to around 50 with the highest chances along the
Cumberland Escarpment, and toned down the QPF from model depictions.
Temps will be modulated by clouds and possibly precip, so will go
just a tick below climo for the min tonight, but solidly below
normal for highs, especially today. Warmest readings today will be
in Indiana where cloud cover will be less and precip will be less of
a factor, while east-central Kentucky struggles into the mid/upper
70s.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Saturday Night - Sunday Night...
Weak upper level troughing will exist over the Ohio Valley, between
two expansive ridges to end the weekend. With the trough axis mainly
to our east during this time, most of the better moisture will
remain southeast of our CWA. Therefore, will continue to only
mention isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms mainly
across eastern and southern portions of our CWA. These showers and
storms will be mainly each afternoon and evening. Across southern
Indiana, expect things to to be dry. Look for lows in the mid and
upper 60s on Saturday night, becoming slightly milder by Sunday
night in the upper 60s to around 70. Look for low and mid 80s for
highs on Sunday.
Monday - Tuesday Night...
The impressive upper ridge over the western CONUS will begin to gain
a bit more influence over our CWA, helping to lift the trough off to
our NE as we start the new week. Will hold onto just a slight chance
of a shower or storm on Monday across our East, however expect a
mostly dry day and warmer as highs work into the upper 80s. Monday
night will be dry as any diurnally driven convection shuts off.
Expect a mild night with lows around 70. Tuesday will be a repeat of
Monday, with temperatures a degree or two warmer, bringing some
spots to the 90 degree mark. Best chance for 90s will be across our
western CWA where a lobe of ~19C 850 mb temps will settle. Will
continue the all too common slight chance of a shower or storm in
our south and east Tuesday afternoon/evening. Tuesday night lows
will be slightly milder in the lower 70s.
Wednesday - Thursday...
A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday and may push
across the region late Wednesday/Thursday, supporting the chance for
at least scattered thunderstorms to the end of the long term. This
front will be accompanied by stronger mid level flow, along with
what looks to be a fairly unstable environment. As a result, more
organized convection could be a possibility, and may have to monitor
potential for some stronger storms.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Mid-level moisture feed is becoming better established over the
Tennessee Valley, so expect thickening clouds with lowering ceilings
through the day. However, low-level dry air should keep conditions
VFR. Will introduce VCSH by early afternoon at BWG, and mid/late
afternoon at LEX, but without any restrictions to ceiling or vis.
SDF should remain dry with the moisture return suppressed just far
enough south and east.
With a weak surface trough parked from near BWG to near LEX
overnight, and low-level moisture continuing to increase, look for
restrictions in ceiling and/or visibility to develop toward daybreak
on Saturday. NAM is bullish as usual with the low ceiling/vis, but
the GFS actually agrees fairly closely, which is enough to draw more
attention. Will go with MVFR conditions to at least show the trend,
but IFR certainly can`t be ruled out, especially if there is decent
rainfall this afternoon. BWG should see conditions deteriorate the
most, with both ceiling and vis right on the borderline of IFR.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
649 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Split flow aloft with general broad trofiness over the eastern
CONUS. Main player is a southern stream impulse over the Ozarks,
which has started to pull a decent mid-level moisture plume up into
the lower Mississippi Valley. However, surface high pressure over
PA/NY continues to ridge back into the Ohio Valley, keeping
substantial low-level dry air in place.
Over the next couple days, the upper impulse will weaken as it
slowly lifts northeast into northern Ohio. An inverted surface trof
will develop over the Tennessee Valley and extend northeast into
Kentucky, and its placement will determine the northward and
westward extent of precip. The dry air in place will make the timing
of precip onset quite challenging, and this forecast may even be a
bit generous in ramping up POPs over south-central and east-central
Kentucky beginning mid to late morning.
The main adjustment from the previous forecast has been to give more
of an east-west oriented gradient in POPs. Only the HRRR shows much
in the way of POPs west of I-65, and based on current precip fields
it doesn`t appear to give enough respect to the dry air already in
place. WRF-NMM and the synoptic models show the best moisture feed
going into eastern Kentucky, and this is the preferred solution.
Will generally limit POPs to slight chance west of I-65, and our
southern Indiana counties may be hard pressed to get any precip
through Saturday. Model QPF has been overdone most of the summer, so
will limit POPs to around 50 with the highest chances along the
Cumberland Escarpment, and toned down the QPF from model depictions.
Temps will be modulated by clouds and possibly precip, so will go
just a tick below climo for the min tonight, but solidly below
normal for highs, especially today. Warmest readings today will be
in Indiana where cloud cover will be less and precip will be less of
a factor, while east-central Kentucky struggles into the mid/upper
70s.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Saturday Night - Sunday Night...
Weak upper level troughing will exist over the Ohio Valley, between
two expansive ridges to end the weekend. With the trough axis mainly
to our east during this time, most of the better moisture will
remain southeast of our CWA. Therefore, will continue to only
mention isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms mainly
across eastern and southern portions of our CWA. These showers and
storms will be mainly each afternoon and evening. Across southern
Indiana, expect things to to be dry. Look for lows in the mid and
upper 60s on Saturday night, becoming slightly milder by Sunday
night in the upper 60s to around 70. Look for low and mid 80s for
highs on Sunday.
Monday - Tuesday Night...
The impressive upper ridge over the western CONUS will begin to gain
a bit more influence over our CWA, helping to lift the trough off to
our NE as we start the new week. Will hold onto just a slight chance
of a shower or storm on Monday across our East, however expect a
mostly dry day and warmer as highs work into the upper 80s. Monday
night will be dry as any diurnally driven convection shuts off.
Expect a mild night with lows around 70. Tuesday will be a repeat of
Monday, with temperatures a degree or two warmer, bringing some
spots to the 90 degree mark. Best chance for 90s will be across our
western CWA where a lobe of ~19C 850 mb temps will settle. Will
continue the all too common slight chance of a shower or storm in
our south and east Tuesday afternoon/evening. Tuesday night lows
will be slightly milder in the lower 70s.
Wednesday - Thursday...
A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday and may push
across the region late Wednesday/Thursday, supporting the chance for
at least scattered thunderstorms to the end of the long term. This
front will be accompanied by stronger mid level flow, along with
what looks to be a fairly unstable environment. As a result, more
organized convection could be a possibility, and may have to monitor
potential for some stronger storms.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Mid-level moisture feed is becoming better established over the
Tennessee Valley, so expect thickening clouds with lowering ceilings
through the day. However, low-level dry air should keep conditions
VFR. Will introduce VCSH by early afternoon at BWG, and mid/late
afternoon at LEX, but without any restrictions to ceiling or vis.
SDF should remain dry with the moisture return suppressed just far
enough south and east.
With a weak surface trough parked from near BWG to near LEX
overnight, and low-level moisture continuing to increase, look for
restrictions in ceiling and/or visibility to develop toward daybreak
on Saturday. NAM is bullish as usual with the low ceiling/vis, but
the GFS actually agrees fairly closely, which is enough to draw more
attention. Will go with MVFR conditions to at least show the trend,
but IFR certainly can`t be ruled out, especially if there is decent
rainfall this afternoon. BWG should see conditions deteriorate the
most, with both ceiling and vis right on the borderline of IFR.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
732 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WAS
ALONG THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. TO THE E OF THE ROCKIES...THE
FLOW SPLITS WITH A TROF NOTED OVER THE MIDDLE AND LWR MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME...IT`S BEEN A QUIET NIGHT WITH UPPER MI STILL
UNDER WEAK PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES NOW CENTERED
OVER THE LOWER LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S AS OF 08Z.
BENIGN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES
SUGGESTS ANOTHER DRY DAY IS ON THE WAY. IT IS NOTED THAT THE NCEP
HIGHRES WRF/HIGHRES ARW ALONG WITH THE GFS AND HIGH RES NAM WINDOW
GENERATE SOME SPOTTY PCPN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...LOOKING
AT FCST SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A HEALTHY CAP ROUGHLY AROUND
650MB/12000FT. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
UPSTREAM AT KINL/KMPX. SO...TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH FAIRLY VIGOROUS CU DEVELOPING THAT WON`T BE ABLE TO
BUILD PAST THE CAP TO GENERATE ANY -SHRA. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MIXING TO AROUND 800MB WHICH YIELDS MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LWR 80S. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL COOLING NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...MAINLY ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW...BUT
OTHERWISE...S WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT THE MAIN COOLING
FROM THE LAKES WILL BE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALONG ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
WILL STILL BE WELL W OF UPPER MI AT 12Z SAT. WITH TIGHTER PRES
GRADIENT KEEPING S WINDS STIRRING...MINS WILL BE HIGHER TONIGHT. AT
THE LOW END...EXPECT LOW/MID 50S IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS WHILE THE
W AND NCNTRL SHOULD SEE LOW/MID 60S...WARMEST IN THE DOWNSLOPE
AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
QUITE A COMPLICATED MID-RANGE FORECAST AT HAND AS A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COMBAT A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OF UPPER MI...THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TO THE NW WILL KEEP SMALL
CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 994 HPA SFC LOW
CURRENTLY INDUCING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA
WILL TRACK EASTWARD TO FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO BY 12Z SATURDAY.
MID-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION. THE SFC
LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND LAY OUT A
DECAYING SFC TROUGH FROM NORTHERN MN TO SOUTHERN JAMES BAY.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN ON
SATURDAY...WITH MIXED SIGNALS ON HOW FAR EAST IT TRAVELS SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE PAINTING SOME QPF ACROSS THE FAR WEST CWA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP DISSIPATING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST
SOME PRECIP REACHING THE WESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WAA
WILL ONLY BE IN THE BEGINNING STAGES OF BUILDING A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE AREA.
SUNDAY...COMPLICATIONS IN THE FORECAST INCREASE BY SUNDAY AS
CONVECTION DECAYS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF ANY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW AND THE RELATIVE COLD WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD BRING
THE STALLED SFC TROUGH A TOUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR INCREASED CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...BY
THIS TIME 850HPA TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING AND BUILDING A STOUT CAP
ACROSS THE AREA. DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL
SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES. EITHER WAY...WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST.
HIGHER MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ON A WEAK LLJ.
HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
MONDAY...THE WEATHER HITS A REWIND BUTTON BY MONDAY AND PRODUCES A
SIMILAR SETUP WITH THE SAME QUESTIONS AS SATURDAY. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA BY 18Z MONDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TROUGH THE DAY. WITH THAT SAID...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A DECENT CAP AT AROUND 850HPA AND RESULTANT
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S. EVEN WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...THIS CAP WOULD BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO
OVERCOME. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF TO ACCOUNT FOR DECAYING PRECIP.
TEMPS ON MONDAY HAVE THE CHANCE TO GET QUITE WARM ACROSS THE WEST
HALF AS 850HPA TEMPS RISE TO OVER 20C. MAX TEMPS APPROACHING 90F
WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME PLACES. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP COULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN...SO DID NOT GO
WITH THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ATTM.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THIS POINT AS
A THIRD SHORTWAVE ROUNDS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...PRODUCING A
1006HPA LOW OVER UPPER MI BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF PLACES A
THE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MN...AND THE GEM FARTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
IL. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK THE BEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE
MODEL GUIDANCE LINES UP QPF THE BEST. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE DEVELOPING LOW WOULD GO WAS ENOUGH TO WARRANT
HIGH-END SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
WITH LOW-LEVELS REMAINING DRY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY TO 15-20KT TODAY AT KIWD/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON AS
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE E WHILE A SERIES OF LOW PRES
SYSTEMS/TROFS MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA. ONE TROF WILL FINALLY CROSS
THE AREA ON TUE BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. WINDS THRU THE FCST
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
OCNL PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS (15-25KT) AT THE HIGHER OBS
PLATFORMS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE E HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKE...MAINLY AFTER SOME PCPN OCCURS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BILLINGS MT
913 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARED ON TRACK THIS MORNING. MADE JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT WAS JUST E
OF THE MT BORDER AT 13Z PER SURFACE ANALYSIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CLOUD COVER EXITING THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND ANOTHER
BATCH OF CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE NW ZONES AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
IN NW MT SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND ANOTHER WAVE WILL FOLLOW ON ITS HEELS TONIGHT.
NEW WRF SHOWED SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS
AND NE BIG HORNS BY 00Z TONIGHT. 09Z SREF HAD POCKETS OF
INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KBIL AND W. MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGH-BASED PER RAP SOUNDINGS. HAVE PULLED EASTWARD EXTENT OF POPS
BACK TOWARD KBIL BASED ON THE ABOVE AFTER 21Z. ANY STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS BASED ON THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SAT WITH THE
NEXT WAVE. POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT LOOKED REASONABLE WITH
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED SAT BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOOKED GOOD. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
LOWER TEMPERATURES IN KBHK A LITTLE DUE TO RAP SOUNDING MIXING
PROFILES. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN WEST FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
MT. AN ASSOCIATED CANADIAN COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF
NORTH CENTRAL MT AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW IS NOTED AT JUDITH GAP
AT 07Z. THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND IS A LITTLE WEST OF GLASGOW NOW.
GREATER MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM IN OUR CENTRAL OR EAST
PARTS BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z OR SO. INDEED THERE IS A WEAK CELL
SHOWING UP ON BLX RADAR IN NORTHERN MUSSELSHELL AT 0730Z.
WIND SHIFT AND MODEST COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD OVER OUR CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT A NWLY BREEZE BY AROUND SUNRISE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EAST. THOUGH MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS BY LATE AFTN AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SEE THE FEATURE ON
WATER VAPOR IN NORTHERN WA NOW. HAVE PAINTED AN ISOLD POP FROM
21-24Z OVER OUR MTNS AND IN CENTRAL PARTS...WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT FLOW EXPECTED AS SFC PRESSURE BULGE SETTLES OVER
EASTERN MT. OTHERWISE...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FOLLOWED BY AN
ADDITIONAL AREA OF PV WARRANTS ISOLD POPS ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO OUR EASTERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANY CONVECTION TODAY
WILL BE NON-SEVERE BUT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY SFC WINDS PER
RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MAX OUT
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S MOST AREAS...WITH
GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFFSETTING THE COLD ADVECTION.
AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY EXITS OUR EAST...SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY AS WE PULL IN DRIER AIR IN
PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 12-14C
ALONG WITH INCREASED DOWNSLOPING/MIXING SHOULD GET US WELL INTO
THE 90S ON SATURDAY...PROBABLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS...BUT SMOKE COULD ALSO BE A PLAYER HERE. HAVE TWEAKED
WINDS AND TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR TOMORROW.
AS WE CREEP EVER SO CLOSER TO A FIRE SEASON...SATURDAY WILL BE OF
INTEREST DUE TO THE HOT TEMPS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS
AND A GUSTY WEST WIND. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE CONDITIONS IN THE
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LITTLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL
BEGIN BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW ENERGY TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST ALONG WITH PACIFIC
MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL COME FROM JET COUPLING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. LIFT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS WITH HIGH SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. WARM AND DRY WEATHER RETURN ON
TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING HOT AND DRY WEATHER BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS. CONTINUED TO KEEP THURSDAY DRY AS BOTH
THE GFS/EC PULL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONAL READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S EXPECTED. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND WAS POSITIONED NEAR THE MONTANA/DAKOTA BORDER AT 15Z.
LOOK FOR SOME GUSTY NW WIND FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY UNDER HAZY
CONDITIONS DUE TO SMOKE. A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AROUND THE BIG HORN MTNS AND
KSHR. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 091 062/094 063/094 063/091 061/094 065/094 061/085
2/T 20/U 01/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 21/U
LVM 090 054/091 055/090 055/085 054/091 056/088 051/085
2/T 20/N 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 21/U
HDN 092 060/096 058/096 061/093 060/096 065/097 061/086
1/B 20/U 01/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 21/U
MLS 090 064/095 065/094 065/094 064/094 069/097 063/086
1/B 21/U 01/U 12/T 21/U 22/T 21/U
4BQ 091 062/094 062/094 063/094 062/095 067/097 063/085
1/B 21/U 01/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 21/U
BHK 089 061/092 062/092 062/093 061/091 064/094 061/084
1/N 22/T 11/U 12/T 21/U 22/T 21/U
SHR 088 057/092 056/091 058/090 056/092 061/094 057/084
2/T 20/U 01/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 21/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
911 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARED ON TRACK THIS MORNING. MADE JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT WAS JUST E
OF THE MT BORDER AT 13Z PER SURFACE ANALYSIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CLOUD COVER EXITING THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND ANOTHER
BATCH OF CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE NW ZONES AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
IN NW MT SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND ANOTHER WAVE WILL FOLLOW ON ITS HEELS TONIGHT.
NEW WRF SHOWED SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS
AND NE BIG HORNS BY 00Z TONIGHT. 09Z SREF HAD POCKETS OF
INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KBIL AND W. MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGH-BASED PER RAP SOUNDINGS. HAVE PULLED EASTWARD EXTENT OF POPS
BACK TOWARD KBIL BASED ON THE ABOVE AFTER 21Z. ANY STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS BASED ON THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SAT WITH THE
NEXT WAVE. POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT LOOKED REASONABLE WITH
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED SAT BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOOKED GOOD. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
LOWER TEMPERATURES IN KBHK A LITTLE DUE TO RAP SOUNDING MIXING
PROFILES. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN WEST FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
MT. AN ASSOCIATED CANADIAN COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF
NORTH CENTRAL MT AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW IS NOTED AT JUDITH GAP
AT 07Z. THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND IS A LITTLE WEST OF GLASGOW NOW.
GREATER MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM IN OUR CENTRAL OR EAST
PARTS BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z OR SO. INDEED THERE IS A WEAK CELL
SHOWING UP ON BLX RADAR IN NORTHERN MUSSELSHELL AT 0730Z.
WIND SHIFT AND MODEST COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD OVER OUR CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT A NWLY BREEZE BY AROUND SUNRISE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EAST. THOUGH MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS BY LATE AFTN AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SEE THE FEATURE ON
WATER VAPOR IN NORTHERN WA NOW. HAVE PAINTED AN ISOLD POP FROM
21-24Z OVER OUR MTNS AND IN CENTRAL PARTS...WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT FLOW EXPECTED AS SFC PRESSURE BULGE SETTLES OVER
EASTERN MT. OTHERWISE...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FOLLOWED BY AN
ADDITIONAL AREA OF PV WARRANTS ISOLD POPS ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO OUR EASTERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANY CONVECTION TODAY
WILL BE NON-SEVERE BUT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY SFC WINDS PER
RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MAX OUT
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S MOST AREAS...WITH
GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFFSETTING THE COLD ADVECTION.
AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY EXITS OUR EAST...SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY AS WE PULL IN DRIER AIR IN
PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 12-14C
ALONG WITH INCREASED DOWNSLOPING/MIXING SHOULD GET US WELL INTO
THE 90S ON SATURDAY...PROBABLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS...BUT SMOKE COULD ALSO BE A PLAYER HERE. HAVE TWEAKED
WINDS AND TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR TOMORROW.
AS WE CREEP EVER SO CLOSER TO A FIRE SEASON...SATURDAY WILL BE OF
INTEREST DUE TO THE HOT TEMPS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS
AND A GUSTY WEST WIND. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE CONDITIONS IN THE
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LITTLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL
BEGIN BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW ENERGY TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST ALONG WITH PACIFIC
MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL COME FROM JET COUPLING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. LIFT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS WITH HIGH SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. WARM AND DRY WEATHER RETURN ON
TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING HOT AND DRY WEATHER BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS. CONTINUED TO KEEP THURSDAY DRY AS BOTH
THE GFS/EC PULL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONAL READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S EXPECTED. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND WAS POSITIONED NEAR THE MONTANA/DAKOTA BORDER AT 15Z.
LOOK FOR SOME GUSTY NW WIND FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY UNDER HAZY
CONDITIONS DUE TO SMOKE. A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AROUND THE BIG HORN MTNS AND
KSHR. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 091 062/094 063/094 063/091 061/094 065/094 061/085
2/T 20/U 01/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 21/U
LVM 090 054/091 055/090 055/085 054/091 056/088 051/085
2/B 20/N 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 21/U
HDN 092 060/096 058/096 061/093 060/096 065/097 061/086
1/T 20/U 01/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 21/U
MLS 090 064/095 065/094 065/094 064/094 069/097 063/086
1/B 21/U 01/U 12/T 21/U 22/T 21/U
4BQ 091 062/094 062/094 063/094 062/095 067/097 063/085
1/B 21/U 01/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 21/U
BHK 089 061/092 062/092 062/093 061/091 064/094 061/084
1/N 22/T 11/U 12/T 21/U 22/T 21/U
SHR 088 057/092 056/091 058/090 056/092 061/094 057/084
2/T 20/U 01/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 21/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
729 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AS SMOKE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE NORTHERN NEVADA...MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...CANCELING RED FLAG WARNING. LATEST MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF PRECIP AND CONVECTION COVERAGE FROM
GFS...EURO...NAM...AND HRRR ALL INDICATE MUCH LOWER COVERAGE OF
CELLS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH AFFECTED
ENTITIES...HAVE AGREED TO CANCEL THE WARNING. UPDATED FWF OUT SOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 212 AM /
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THERE IS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS STRIKING NW THROUGH NEVADA. UNSTABLE AIR WILL LINGER
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SMOKE FROM FIRES IN OREGON AND WESTERN
NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN NEVADA AS WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES PULL IN CONTAMINATED AIR.
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL EXPAND FURTHER NORTH
AS A WEAK LOW FEATURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ATMOSPHERIC
DESTABILIZATION IN THE AFTERNOON MAY HELP DISPERSE SOME OF THE
SMOKE UP NORTH AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. HOWEVER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH WITH HIGHEST VALUES CENTRALIZED
ALONG AND NEAR THE HIGHWAY 50 CONVERGENCE ZONE. THUS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NEVADA COULD BE GOOD RAIN-PRODUCERS
WHEREAS UP NORTH...SOME DRY LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THEN ON SATURDAY...CONVECTION WILL RECUR TO AFFECT
ALL ZONES ONCE AGAIN HOWEVER COULD BE MERELY ISOLATED VS.
SCATTERED COVERAGE. AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY STILL SEE LIMITED
PRECIPITATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. GFS/EURO/DGEX AGREE
ON TIMING/ORIENTATION OF TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO INTERIOR
WEST AFTER TUESDAY 00Z. BETWEEN 06Z SUNDAY AND 00Z TUESDAY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHWEST HIGH WILL ENABLE MOSTLY WET CONVECTION OVER
LARGE PORTION OF EAST/NORTH/CENTRAL NEVADA. AS JET STREAK ENTERS
FROM SOUTHWEST AND DRIVE QUICK SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...AIRMASS
WILL DRY QUICKLY. ADDED AREAS SMOKE TO NORTHERN NEVADA 06Z-18Z
SUNDAY UNTIL THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AND TENDS TO DRIVE IT OUT.
REMAINDER OF LONG RANGE FORECAST LOOKS DRY. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
AND DOWNSLOPE OFF THE EASTERN SIERRA...EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUNSHINE FOR ADDED WARMTH.
AVIATION...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. KWMC...EXPECTING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
TAPERING OFF AFTER DARK. AREAS OF SMOKE MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO 6SM THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TENDING TO WESTERLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS EXCEPT GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS WITH STORMS OR VIRGA.
KEKO...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF SMOKE REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 6SM THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WESTERLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS BUT GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS WITH STORMS OR VIRGA. KELY...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. WESTERLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS BUT GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS WITH STORMS. KTPH...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. WEST WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS WITH STORMS. VICINITY STORMS MAY LINGER AFTER 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY AND ALL FIRE ZONES WILL BE AFFECTED. SOME
STORMS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.
HOWEVER A SURGE OF INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ENOUGH TO VALIDATE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG
WARNING...ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR FIRE ZONES 469 AND 470. EASTERN
FIRE ZONE 467 COULD ALSO SEE SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SHIFT
EAST AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AND THERE WILL BE
A POSSIBILITY FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE MOIST AIR. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING ALL NORTHERN FIRE ZONES APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABLILITY MOVING FURTHER NORTH. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE WET.
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDERS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1019 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...
SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS PUSHED JUST OFF THE
COAST THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER MCS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS WE LIE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES
TODAY DUE TO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH BLOWOFF
FROM THE MCS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HAVE LEFT POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
LARGELY AS IS AS WE ARE STILL EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY LIE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE US 59
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 38
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO SE TEXAS THIS
MORNING. AT 11Z...THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR KLFK...KUTS...AND
KCLL. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE FURTHER AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWED THE
AIRPORT TERMINALS IN A LULL BETWEEN AN MCS TO THE WEST OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS AND ONE TO THE EAST OVER FAR EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LA. THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THIS AREA TO FILL IN SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES TO AND OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FOR KCLL AND KUTS...EXPECT THE RAIN CHANCES TO END BY 17Z. ENOUGH
OF A CHANCE EXISTS TO WARRANT A TEMPO GROUP THIS MORNING FOR
KCXO...KIAH...KHOU...AND KSGR. THERE WERE SOME DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD LINGER OVER KLBX AND
KGLS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT ANY MVFR CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING TODAY.
TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
DUE TO AT LEAST SHALLOW GROUND FOG OVER THE MORE RURAL SITES.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/
UPDATE...
CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SEE UPDATED DISCUSSION AND MARINE
SECTION.
DISCUSSION...
AFTER MUCH CONSTERNATION...DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND OVER LOUISIANA SEEMED TO
HINDER ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SE TX. CLOUD TOPS
ARE STILL WARMING AND RADAR RETURNS ARE STILL BENIGN. AM STILL
EXPECTING SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING BUT FEEL
THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED. THAT SAID...
THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUD TOPS OVER SE TX CONTINUE TO WARM RATHER RAPIDLY THIS MORNING
AND RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AND WEST OF SE TX WITH THE WESTERN AREA OF
PRECIP PUSHING SOUTH AND THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST...MOVING NE.
AT 08Z...A WEAK FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM KESF TO KDKR TO KJCT. ALL
THE MODELS PUSH THIS BOUNDARY TO THE COAST...BUT THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE LAST NIGHT SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS WEAK
THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE MUCH OF A PUSH SOUTH. AT 850 MB...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH 850 MB DEW PTS AT CRP AT 17 C
AND A LARGE AREA OF 15-16 C DEW PTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
A WEAK S/WV TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER EAST TEXAS AND ANOTHER STRONGER
S/WV OVER WEST TEXAS. AT 700 MB...A WELL DEFINED S/WV WAS OVER NE
OKLAHOMA AND THIS EXTENDED INTO SW TEXAS. DEEPER 700 MB MOISTURE
WAS OVER N TEXAS AND OK/ARKANSAS. A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS IS STILL
WELL TO THE WEST AND CONTINUES TO DIG TO THE SE. AT 250 MB...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS
STRONGLY DIVERGENT OVER EAST TEXAS. DESPITE THE RATHER BENIGN
RADAR THIS MORNING...THERE ARE JUST TOO MANY PARAMETERS IN PLACE
THAT FAVOR RAIN FOR TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN
THIS AFTN AND PW VALUES WHICH WILL PEAK NEAR 2.20 INCHES THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE TO 1.80 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. NONE OF THE
MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING WITH MAYBE THE HRRR THE
BEST OF THE BUNCH. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THIS MORNING AND THEN
TAPER POPS LOWER FOR THE AFTN. AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH...FEEL THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS WHERE GROUNDS ARE
SATURATED OVER THE NORTH...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENDING. FURTHER SOUTH...RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIGHT TO NON-EXISTENT
AND THIS AREA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN THIS
MORNING. NOTHING IS IN PHASE. AM LEANING STRONGLY TO CANCELING THE
FLOOD WATCH BEFORE ISSUING THE MORNING ZONES.
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON SATURDAY TO GET SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY BUT PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES SO
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DESPITE THE INCREASING HEIGHTS. THE
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SE
TX WILL LIE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THINK SE TX WILL HAVE
AT LEAST A SLT CHC OF PCPN EVERY DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS HINTING AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WHICH WILL
ENHANCE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES A BIT TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. ALTHO CURRENTLY NOT FORECASTING RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD ALLOW
DISTURBANCES OVER THE GULF TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND MOVE WEST
TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. 43
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE INFLOW INTO THE THUNDERSTORMS INLAND DECREASES AND THE
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WINDS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST...ONSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 86 74 92 77 93 / 30 20 20 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 87 74 92 77 92 / 50 20 30 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 80 88 81 89 / 60 20 30 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...38
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
637 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO SE TEXAS THIS
MORNING. AT 11Z...THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR KLFK...KUTS...AND
KCLL. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE FURTHER AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWED THE
AIRPORT TERMINALS IN A LULL BETWEEN AN MCS TO THE WEST OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS AND ONE TO THE EAST OVER FAR EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LA. THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THIS AREA TO FILL IN SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES TO AND OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FOR KCLL AND KUTS...EXPECT THE RAIN CHANCES TO END BY 17Z. ENOUGH
OF A CHANCE EXISTS TO WARRANT A TEMPO GROUP THIS MORNING FOR
KCXO...KIAH...KHOU...AND KSGR. THERE WERE SOME DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD LINGER OVER KLBX AND
KGLS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT ANY MVFR CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING TODAY.
TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
DUE TO AT LEAST SHALLOW GROUND FOG OVER THE MORE RURAL SITES.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/
UPDATE...
CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SEE UPDATED DISCUSSION AND MARINE
SECTION.
DISCUSSION...
AFTER MUCH CONSTERNATION...DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND OVER LOUISIANA SEEMED TO
HINDER ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SE TX. CLOUD TOPS
ARE STILL WARMING AND RADAR RETURNS ARE STILL BENIGN. AM STILL
EXPECTING SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING BUT FEEL
THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED. THAT SAID...
THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUD TOPS OVER SE TX CONTINUE TO WARM RATHER RAPIDLY THIS MORNING
AND RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AND WEST OF SE TX WITH THE WESTERN AREA OF
PRECIP PUSHING SOUTH AND THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST...MOVING NE.
AT 08Z...A WEAK FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM KESF TO KDKR TO KJCT. ALL
THE MODELS PUSH THIS BOUNDARY TO THE COAST...BUT THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE LAST NIGHT SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS WEAK
THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE MUCH OF A PUSH SOUTH. AT 850 MB...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH 850 MB DEW PTS AT CRP AT 17 C
AND A LARGE AREA OF 15-16 C DEW PTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
A WEAK S/WV TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER EAST TEXAS AND ANOTHER STRONGER
S/WV OVER WEST TEXAS. AT 700 MB...A WELL DEFINED S/WV WAS OVER NE
OKLAHOMA AND THIS EXTENDED INTO SW TEXAS. DEEPER 700 MB MOISTURE
WAS OVER N TEXAS AND OK/ARKANSAS. A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS IS STILL
WELL TO THE WEST AND CONTINUES TO DIG TO THE SE. AT 250 MB...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS
STRONGLY DIVERGENT OVER EAST TEXAS. DESPITE THE RATHER BENIGN
RADAR THIS MORNING...THERE ARE JUST TOO MANY PARAMETERS IN PLACE
THAT FAVOR RAIN FOR TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN
THIS AFTN AND PW VALUES WHICH WILL PEAK NEAR 2.20 INCHES THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE TO 1.80 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. NONE OF THE
MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING WITH MAYBE THE HRRR THE
BEST OF THE BUNCH. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THIS MORNING AND THEN
TAPER POPS LOWER FOR THE AFTN. AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH...FEEL THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS WHERE GROUNDS ARE
SATURATED OVER THE NORTH...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENDING. FURTHER SOUTH...RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIGHT TO NON-EXISTENT
AND THIS AREA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN THIS
MORNING. NOTHING IS IN PHASE. AM LEANING STRONGLY TO CANCELING THE
FLOOD WATCH BEFORE ISSUING THE MORNING ZONES.
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON SATURDAY TO GET SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY BUT PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES SO
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DESPITE THE INCREASING HEIGHTS. THE
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SE
TX WILL LIE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THINK SE TX WILL HAVE
AT LEAST A SLT CHC OF PCPN EVERY DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS HINTING AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WHICH WILL
ENHANCE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES A BIT TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. ALTHO CURRENTLY NOT FORECASTING RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD ALLOW
DISTURBANCES OVER THE GULF TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND MOVE WEST
TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. 43
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE INFLOW INTO THE THUNDERSTORMS INLAND DECREASES AND THE
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WINDS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST...ONSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 88 74 92 77 93 / 50 20 20 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 88 74 92 77 92 / 80 20 30 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 80 88 81 89 / 80 20 30 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1235 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...A FEW CHANGES MADE TO INCREASE POP CHANCES UP AND DOWN THE
COASTAL COUNTIES PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE.
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO SHIFT INLAND AS THE E COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES
WWD. FUNNEL CLOUD REPORT AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUT FORMED ALONG
CONVERGENCE LINE JUST BEFORE 11 AM BUT THIS CONVERGENCE FEATURE
MORPHED INTO MORE SCT TO ISOLD CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER THE PAST HOUR
SO ANY FURTHER FUNNEL CLOUD IS UNLIKELY ATTM.
OTHER CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO MODERATE
BASED ON AREA REPORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...INCLUDED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE NE FL COASTAL TAFS WITH
BRIEF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE REST OF TODAY.
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1103 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
242 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND LAKE
BREEZES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...UPPER WAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL UNDERCUT A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BUT ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H85
WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS
RISING TO AROUND 21-22C MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SURFACE HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 80S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EVEN 90S IF
CONDITIONS COME TOGETHER.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LOW PRECIP CHANCES CREEP UP MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA PER THE GFS WHICH DEVELOPS A LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY GENERATING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WHICH
MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. DESPITE THE QPF OUTPUT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ACROSS
THE CWA WITH MODEST HIGH BASED ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT LIKELY
WOULDNT SUPPORT ANY CONTINUED CONVECTION INTO THE AREA. WITH THAT IN
MIND...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS A
NOD TO THE GFS BUT WOULD THEN EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE DECAYING AS IT
MOVED INTO THE DRIER AND LESS UNSTABLE AIR LOCALLY.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD BE WELL CAPPED AS H85 THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS
OF AROUND 23C. NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE H5 HEIGHT TENDENCIES
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MN
AND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE BETTER FORCING AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE LOCATED. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE A CONCERN TUESDAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF
MOISTURE BETWEEN H4 AND H6...BUT SHOULD SKY COVER END UP BEING LESS
THAN FORECAST MIGHT HAVE TO BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES INTO
THE LOW 90S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP APPEAR AROUND MIDWEEK AS A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE LOCALLY.
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO
THE MIDWEST WHILE THE COLD FRONT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SLOWLY
SAGS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED THOUGH THERE REMAIN MODEST TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WITH AT LEAST A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME
COOLER AIR RESULTING IN MORE SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST
MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KT.
MDB/MTF
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. LIGHT/VARIABLE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD SOUTHEAST
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SPEEDS LOOK SLOW TO
COME UP THROUGH THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...LAKE INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TURNING WINDS EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
IL SHORE AND SUBSEQUENTLY AT ORD/MDW DURING THE MID OR LATE
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS MAY COME UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT
THOUGH ANY GUSTS WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY POTENTIAL TIMING ADJUSTMENTS ETC. GYY WILL LIKELY
TURN MORE EAST OR EVEN NE EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THEIR
PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE. SPEEDS WILL EASE AT ALL SITES WITH
NIGHTFALL THIS EVENING THEN LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT SATURDAY MORNING
WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING FROM NEAR MDW BACK TO VYS AND POINTS
SOUTH. SOME FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID MORNING
WITH BASES LIFTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGH IN SHIFT TO EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND MEDIUM IN TIMING. MEDIUM THAT 10 KT SPEEDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY OCCUR WITH SHIFT.
MDB/MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHC TSRA...MVFR PSBL WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
319 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS JAMES BAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN REACHES OF LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO STEADIER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE WILL SEE A WEAK GRADIENT AND
THEREFORE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ONSHORE FLOW TO SET THIS AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A LARGER SCALE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE LEE OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES NORTHEASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY SUNDAY WITH THE
FAVORED TRACK FOR ADDITIONAL LOWS LOOKING TO BE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS MODULATED UP AND DOWN BY THE PASSING LOWS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1048 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Some mid level clouds lingering as a result of a quick shortwave
rippling through the region. For the most part, forecast is doing
well. Temps on track to be a couple degrees above yesterday and
some fair weather clouds expected to cover the sky later this
afternoon. Warm and weak winds overall. No updates anticipated.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 650 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours in central
and eastern IL.
A shortwave trough moving into the lower Ohio Valley from the
Ozarks area will continue to spread BKN cirrus across central and
southern IL this morning. Many of the short range models,
including the SREF, HRRR and NAM12 are indicating the development
of SCT cumulus by late morning/toward noon. Low level
moisture/favorable weak lift should be enough for BKN VFR cumulus
to form early this afternoon particularly from KBMI to KCMI. This
may extend as far west as the IL River valley, but will hold off
mention at KPIA for now as confidence is lower here.
The cumulus field is expected to go through its typical diurnal
dissipation around dusk. Some of the numerical guidance is hinting
at MVFR visibility toward daybreak Saturday as low level moisture
increases enough to possibly produce some light fog. Held off on
mention in the TAFs for now and will monitor for future forecasts.
Miller
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday
Short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over
the Ozarks will track northeastward into the Ohio River Valley by
this evening. Models are in excellent agreement that showers/thunder
associated with this wave will remain well southeast of the KILX
CWA. The only impacts that will be seen this far north will be a
shield of high/thin clouds that will drift across the region
today. Despite the cloud cover, temperatures will rise a degree
or two higher than yesterday with afternoon readings topping out
in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
As has been suggested for the past several days, upper trough axis
will remain east of Illinois this weekend. As a result, will go
with a mostly sunny and dry forecast for both Saturday and Sunday
with highs reaching the lower to middle 80s.
LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday
Upper heights will rise substantially early next week as ridging
temporarily builds into the Midwest. With no appreciable forcing
for convection present, dry conditions are expected to persist
through Tuesday. Thanks to the rising heights, temperatures will
climb into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees while dewpoints
reach the lower 70s. Models are in relatively good agreement with
the eventual break down of the upper ridge by the middle and end
of next week, with only minor timing discrepancies concerning
FROPA. GEM is the fastest model, with cold front crossing the
Mississippi River Tuesday night. Meanwhile, GFS and ECMWF are
about 6 to 12 hours slower with front delayed until
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Given strength of upper ridge, prefer
the slower solution here. As a result, have maintained a hot/dry
forecast for Tuesday, then have introduced chance POPs across the
Illinois River Valley Tuesday night. Have hit POPs hardest on
Wednesday, then have shifted rain chances southward and out of the
area by Thursday. Once front passes, another cooler/less humid
airmass will arrive later next week with high temps dropping back
into the lower to middle 80s by Thursday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
341 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
WIDESPREAD CU FIELD IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH
WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS CU
FIELD WILL DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE AROUND 5-8KFT. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
REMAINS. THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ACRS NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA
SHOULD GRAZE THE FAR WEST BUT THE LOW CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AN ISSUE WHEN LOOKING AT THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE NICELY THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO GAIN A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS DEWPOINTS
COME UP BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD REMAIN THE SAME AS PAST FEW
DAYS...TEMP/DEWPOINTS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS INTO NEXT WEEK. LONG
WAVE PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION THIS WEEKEND EVOLVING FROM
TRANSIENT ZONAL FLOW TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING FROM SWRN CONUS
INTO THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMP AND
MOISTURE REBOUND WILL REMAIN SLOW TO START THE WEEKEND WITH
SPRAWLING ATYPICAL HIGH PRESSURE STILL AFFECTING THE ERN CONUS AND
KEEPING SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW AT BAY. INITIAL SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE MO VALLEY BY LATE SUN HOWEVER
INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION INTO IA. THIS WILL RESULT IN M80S-
L90S HIGHS BY MON AND TUE...A TOUCH HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH HEAT INDICES WELL THROUGH THE 90S AND JUST
TOPPING 100F IN SPOTS THOSE DAYS.
THIS IS ALSO THE WINDOW WHERE PRECIP CHANCES COME INTO PLAY. WHAT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THERE IS APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED INITIALLY WITH
LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES LIKELY DEGRADING THE FORECAST AND NO
CONVECTION ALLOWING HI RES MODEL INPUT AT THIS TIME RANGE.
EXAMINATION OF GFS/ECMWF 310K ISENT SURFACES SHOW EITHER WEAK OR
NIL LIFT AND/OR BAROCLINICITY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SO ONLY TOKEN
SLIGHT CHANCES ARE MENTIONED FAR NW LATE SAT NIGHT...AGAIN NE SUN
NIGHT...AND HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS DUE TO SIMILAR THINKING MON
NIGHT. MOST APPRECIABLE CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE OR TUE
NIGHT WHEN MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE AND SYNOPTIC FORCING
ARRIVES AND MODIFIES THE AIRMASS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO INTRODUCE
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE...ALBEIT WEAK. THIS WILL ALSO BE A WINDOW
OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MUCAPES ARE EXTREME AND
ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IS NOT TOO HIGH IT WOULD BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN EFFICIENCY WOULD ALSO BE
QUITE ELEVATED WITH OBVIOUS HIGH LEVELS OF PWS AND HIGH WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS CONSIDERING THE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
WEAK PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER EAST INTO WED MORNING WITH AIRMASS
MODIFYING SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BUT STILL STAYING SEASONAL.
AFTER A BREAK AROUND THU...ANOTHER WAVE LOOKS TO TOP THE RIDGE
INTRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CHANCES FOR THE NEW DAY 7 /FRI/.
&&
.AVIATION...18/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD IS EXPECTED ONCE MORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ALTHOUGH ANY CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
A WIDESPREAD CLOUD FIELD IN NEBRASKA IS ALSO ENTERING WESTERN IOWA
AND MAY AFFECT KFOD LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH
DISSIPATE THIS WITH TIME WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO KEEPING HIGHER
RH VALUES ABOVE 3-4KFT...THEREFORE DONT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS SEEN IN KS AND NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA BUT GOOD DECOUPLING THIS EVENING
SHOULD SEE WINDS DROP OF AND BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1243 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SLOWLY INCREASES. STILL...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF WIND OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WILL SEE SOME 20 TO 25 MPH
GUSTS IN THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS AT H8 INCREASE 1 TO 2 DEGREES TODAY
OVER THOSE OF YESTERDAY. IN SPITE OF THAT...THE OFF SETTING FACTOR
WILL BE THE SMOKE LAYER THAT HAS MOVED IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWED THAT WELL.
THE SMOKE IS FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL...BUT NONE THE LESS WILL REDUCE SOLAR
INSOLATION AND WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH MORE
THAN YESTERDAY IN SPITE OF THE WARMING AT H8.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
THE LONG TERM IS LOOKING A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED THEN IT LOOKED
YESTERDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY AND MAY BRUSH FAR NORTHERN IOWA. THIS WILL NOT BE MUCH TO
SPEAK OF BUT WE HAD NO POPS GOING BEFORE. SO THIS IS A SMALL
ADJUSTMENT. THEN A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY I LEFT SATURDAY NIGHT
DRY YOU COULD MAKE AN ARGUMENT FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS A
BIT STRONGER WITH THE WAVE WHILE THE EURO...CANADIAN AND SREF ALL
KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED
AS ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS OCCUR TO SEE IF THEY BRING THE WAVE
FURTHER SOUTH OR DEEPEN IT ANY. THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY BEGINS TO
BUILD ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER YET ANOTHER RIDGE-
RIDER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS MOST
BULLISH WITH PRECIP WHILE THE EURO KEEPS IT JUST TO THE NORTH.
FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS THE MODELS HAVE INDICATED AT
LEAST SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
ANTICIPATED LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE I HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
WE CONTINUE TO GET TEASED WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVES RIDING THE RIDGE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BEFORE A STRONGER WAVE FINALLY SWINGS
ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR
BEST DURING THIS PERIOD AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FOCUS FOR STORMS. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR INCREASES AS WELL DURING THIS TIME THOUGH ALOFT SHEAR IS
LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE. THE RIDGE REBUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. AS FOR
TEMPS THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE EURO IN RESPONSE TO
THE EURO HAVING THAT STRONGER WAVE COME THROUGH. THE EURO HAS
WARMEST TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH 90 BEING REACHED THEN THE REALLY DROP
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS 90S GOING UNTIL MID WEEK AND ONLY A SLIGHT COOL OFF
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL IT STILL LOOKS DRY ACROSS
THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE
WIT THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME AND A WARM WEEKEND
AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS ON TAP AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...18/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD IS EXPECTED ONCE MORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ALTHOUGH ANY CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
A WIDESPREAD CLOUD FIELD IN NEBRASKA IS ALSO ENTERING WESTERN IOWA
AND MAY AFFECT KFOD LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE RAP AND HRRR BOTH
DISSIPATE THIS WITH TIME WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO KEEPING HIGHER
RH VALUES ABOVE 3-4KFT...THEREFORE DONT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS SEEN IN KS AND NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IOWA BUT GOOD DECOUPLING THIS EVENING
SHOULD SEE WINDS DROP OF AND BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MS JUL 14
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
140 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
STRATUS DECK IS SLOW TO CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING BUT LATEST VIZ
IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOUTH AND WEST COUNTIES WILL BEGIN TO SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH NORTH AND EAST
COUNTIES CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING. REMOVED FOG WORDING IN
LATEST ZONE UPDATE MENTIONING GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER COLORADO ON SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH ULTIMATELY WORKS INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EVENING.
MODEL ALSO HINTS AS SOME DISCRETE STRONGER STORMS WITH BOTH
HRRR/NAM INDICATING 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH CAPE OF
1500-1800 J/KG. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL INCREASE
POPS THIS EVENING OVER NW KANSAS COUNTIES. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST SO STORMS WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES ONCE WORKING PAST THE FIRST 1-2
TIERS OF KANSAS COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE
COOLER/WETTER WEATHER THE LAST FEW DAYS. UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE IS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL WYOMING THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE TRI-STATE AREA LATER TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
CLOUD SHIELD DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. FOG IS ALSO MOVING INTO
THE AREA WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A MILE IN
SOME LOCATIONS.
TODAY THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM. THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING WILL MOVE OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN 2/3S OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FURTHER
WEST A DRY LINE WILL MOVE TO THE WEST EDGE OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND STALL. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES LIFT WILL INCREASE
OVER THE DRY LINE AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVERHEAD. POINT SOUNDINGS OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO INDICATE
STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD. THE BEST SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER...WITH VALUES OF 1000-2000J/KG. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SOMEWHAT LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSION OF
5F AT THE LCL LEVEL OVER THE HIGHER CAPE. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA WHERE THE
DEFORMATION AT 700MB IS BEST...SO EXPECT THIS TO BE THE FAVORED
LOCATION FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ENVIRONMENT
CAPPED EAST OF THE HWY 25 CORRIDOR...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORMS TO
MOVE INTO THAT PART OF THE AREA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST OF
HWY 25. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
UP TO HALF DOLLAR IN SIZE.
THIS EVENING STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DECLINE AS THE COOLING
TEMPERATURES STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT AND LOWER MIDLEVEL DEW POINTS
MOVE IN.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH LIFT
STRENGTHENING OVER THE DRY LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA THE DRY LINE WILL FOLLOW...STALLING JUST EAST OF
THE STATE LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE
LIFT OVER THE DRY LINE WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF I-70 AND EAST OF THE CO
BORDER...SO AM THINKING THAT WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT.
THE AXIS OF LIFT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE AXIS OF SURFACE
INSTABILITY. EVEN SO...SURFACE BASED CAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE AREA WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST WILL BE 1500-2500J/KG.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE 30KTS WHICH WILL BE SUITABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO HEN
EGG SIZE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.
CURRENTLY AM THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE SOUTH
OF I-70 AND EAST OF THE CO BORDER. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE
THE HEAT. 500MB HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. 850 TEMPERATURES SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S EXCEPT 100-105 ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA. ON MONDAY 850 TEMPERATURES COOL
ABOUT 3-6F ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND
101. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH 60S SATURDAY
NIGHT...60S AND LOW 70S SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING AN AREA
OF 700-300MB MOISTURE AIDED BY UPPER JET MAX ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH AND INTO THE AREA AROUND THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. ON MONDAY SFC
TROUGH BISECTS THE AREA AND SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 16-18C
AREA COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND FROM LOCAL RESEARCH
SEVERE WEATHER MINIMAL IF AT ALL.
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SOUTH A BIT TOWARD SOUTHERN
COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHILE ALSO DEAMPLIFYING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO THE 90S AND POSSIBLY. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S.
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...700MB
TEMPERATURES OF 16C-18C MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAP ANY DEVELOPMENT. A
FAIRLY STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE EMERGES OFF THE FRONT RANGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MOVING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUR AREA
IS FAIRLY UNSTABLE AND MAY HAVE A FOCUSING MECHANISM IN THE FORM OF
A WIND CONVERGENCE AREA DURING THE DAY. 700MB TEMPERATURES ARENT
QUITE AS HOT SO CAPPING MECHANISM MAY BE WEAKER AND CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT 700MB TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE 17C-19C RANGE
WHICH SHOULD REALLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. FINALLY FOR
FRIDAY...GFS SHOWING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND COOLER AIR MOVING
INTO THE AREA. DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION RATHER HIGH...ENOUGH THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 17C PUT A LID ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE TO VCNTY KGLD BTWN 00Z AND 03Z.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KMCK TERMINAL THIS
EVENING. STRATUS DECK WILL FINALLY BURN OFF COMPLETELY AT KMCK
BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z TODAY WITH SKC CLEAR FOR REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GUSTING 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING 8-15 KTS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DLF
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1124 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
STRATUS DECK IS SLOW TO CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING BUT LATEST VIZ
IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOUTH AND WEST COUNTIES WILL BEGIN TO SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH NORTH AND EAST
COUNTIES CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING. REMOVED FOG WORDING IN
LATEST ZONE UPDATE MENTIONING GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER COLORADO ON SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH ULTIMATELY WORKS INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EVENING.
MODEL ALSO HINTS AS SOME DISCRETE STRONGER STORMS WITH BOTH
HRRR/NAM INDICATING 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH CAPE OF
1500-1800 J/KG. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL INCREASE
POPS THIS EVENING OVER NW KANSAS COUNTIES. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST SO STORMS WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES ONCE WORKING PAST THE FIRST 1-2
TIERS OF KANSAS COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE
COOLER/WETTER WEATHER THE LAST FEW DAYS. UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE IS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL WYOMING THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE TRI-STATE AREA LATER TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
CLOUD SHIELD DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. FOG IS ALSO MOVING INTO
THE AREA WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A MILE IN
SOME LOCATIONS.
TODAY THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM. THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING WILL MOVE OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN 2/3S OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FURTHER
WEST A DRY LINE WILL MOVE TO THE WEST EDGE OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND STALL. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES LIFT WILL INCREASE
OVER THE DRY LINE AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVERHEAD. POINT SOUNDINGS OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO INDICATE
STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD. THE BEST SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER...WITH VALUES OF 1000-2000J/KG. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SOMEWHAT LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSION OF
5F AT THE LCL LEVEL OVER THE HIGHER CAPE. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA WHERE THE
DEFORMATION AT 700MB IS BEST...SO EXPECT THIS TO BE THE FAVORED
LOCATION FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ENVIRONMENT
CAPPED EAST OF THE HWY 25 CORRIDOR...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORMS TO
MOVE INTO THAT PART OF THE AREA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KTS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST OF
HWY 25. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
UP TO HALF DOLLAR IN SIZE.
THIS EVENING STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DECLINE AS THE COOLING
TEMPERATURES STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT AND LOWER MIDLEVEL DEW POINTS
MOVE IN.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH LIFT
STRENGTHENING OVER THE DRY LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA THE DRY LINE WILL FOLLOW...STALLING JUST EAST OF
THE STATE LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE
LIFT OVER THE DRY LINE WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF I-70 AND EAST OF THE CO
BORDER...SO AM THINKING THAT WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT.
THE AXIS OF LIFT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE AXIS OF SURFACE
INSTABILITY. EVEN SO...SURFACE BASED CAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE AREA WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST WILL BE 1500-2500J/KG.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE 30KTS WHICH WILL BE SUITABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO HEN
EGG SIZE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.
CURRENTLY AM THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE SOUTH
OF I-70 AND EAST OF THE CO BORDER. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A SERIES OF WEAK DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENING DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
PRESENT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT POSITION AND HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN COLORADO COULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY
NIGHT. KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE. HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE IN COMBINATION
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A
BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL EVOLVE OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES
EACH DAY. THE RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND FLATTEN OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING OF THE
LEE TROUGH. WEAK FORCING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SHORTWAVE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION ON THURSDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THE POSITION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014
SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE TO VCNTY KGLD BTWN 00Z AND 03Z.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KMCK TERMINAL THIS
EVENING. STRATUS DECK WILL FINALLY BURN OFF COMPLETELY AT KMCK
BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z TODAY WITH SKC CLEAR FOR REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GUSTING 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING 8-15 KTS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DLF
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
133 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued 1120 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Updated the forecast to expand POPs a little farther west. Most of
the high-res models still indicate that scattered precip will be
most likely east of I-65 today, but they do show some isolated
showers/sprinkles west of I-65 as well. Reduced thunder chances to
isolated as lapse rates don`t look all that impressive for this
afternoon and the lack of heating due to clouds won`t help. Lowered
high temps over most of KY as clouds have kept most places in the
upper 60s to around 70 for much of the morning hours. Thus, think
that high temps this afternoon will range from mid 70s to around 80
over south Indiana under only partly cloudy skies to low to mid 70s
for central KY in the thick of the cloud cover.
Issued 750 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Updated the forecast to bring in rain showers over south central KY
earlier than previously forecast. KY counties along the TN border
should see some where from a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of
rain this morning. Precipitation chances are still on track to
increase across the rest of KY this afternoon mainly east of I-65.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Split flow aloft with general broad trofiness over the eastern
CONUS. Main player is a southern stream impulse over the Ozarks,
which has started to pull a decent mid-level moisture plume up into
the lower Mississippi Valley. However, surface high pressure over
PA/NY continues to ridge back into the Ohio Valley, keeping
substantial low-level dry air in place.
Over the next couple days, the upper impulse will weaken as it
slowly lifts northeast into northern Ohio. An inverted surface trof
will develop over the Tennessee Valley and extend northeast into
Kentucky, and its placement will determine the northward and
westward extent of precip. The dry air in place will make the timing
of precip onset quite challenging, and this forecast may even be a
bit generous in ramping up POPs over south-central and east-central
Kentucky beginning mid to late morning.
The main adjustment from the previous forecast has been to give more
of an east-west oriented gradient in POPs. Only the HRRR shows much
in the way of POPs west of I-65, and based on current precip fields
it doesn`t appear to give enough respect to the dry air already in
place. WRF-NMM and the synoptic models show the best moisture feed
going into eastern Kentucky, and this is the preferred solution.
Will generally limit POPs to slight chance west of I-65, and our
southern Indiana counties may be hard pressed to get any precip
through Saturday. Model QPF has been overdone most of the summer, so
will limit POPs to around 50 with the highest chances along the
Cumberland Escarpment, and toned down the QPF from model depictions.
Temps will be modulated by clouds and possibly precip, so will go
just a tick below climo for the min tonight, but solidly below
normal for highs, especially today. Warmest readings today will be
in Indiana where cloud cover will be less and precip will be less of
a factor, while east-central Kentucky struggles into the mid/upper
70s.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
Saturday Night - Sunday Night...
Weak upper level troughing will exist over the Ohio Valley, between
two expansive ridges to end the weekend. With the trough axis mainly
to our east during this time, most of the better moisture will
remain southeast of our CWA. Therefore, will continue to only
mention isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms mainly
across eastern and southern portions of our CWA. These showers and
storms will be mainly each afternoon and evening. Across southern
Indiana, expect things to to be dry. Look for lows in the mid and
upper 60s on Saturday night, becoming slightly milder by Sunday
night in the upper 60s to around 70. Look for low and mid 80s for
highs on Sunday.
Monday - Tuesday Night...
The impressive upper ridge over the western CONUS will begin to gain
a bit more influence over our CWA, helping to lift the trough off to
our NE as we start the new week. Will hold onto just a slight chance
of a shower or storm on Monday across our East, however expect a
mostly dry day and warmer as highs work into the upper 80s. Monday
night will be dry as any diurnally driven convection shuts off.
Expect a mild night with lows around 70. Tuesday will be a repeat of
Monday, with temperatures a degree or two warmer, bringing some
spots to the 90 degree mark. Best chance for 90s will be across our
western CWA where a lobe of ~19C 850 mb temps will settle. Will
continue the all too common slight chance of a shower or storm in
our south and east Tuesday afternoon/evening. Tuesday night lows
will be slightly milder in the lower 70s.
Wednesday - Thursday...
A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday and may push
across the region late Wednesday/Thursday, supporting the chance for
at least scattered thunderstorms to the end of the long term. This
front will be accompanied by stronger mid level flow, along with
what looks to be a fairly unstable environment. As a result, more
organized convection could be a possibility, and may have to monitor
potential for some stronger storms.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014
An upper level trough and weak inverted sfc trough over the region
will continue to bring chances for light isld-sct rain showers to
the area. BWG and LEX will stand the best chance to see these
showers over the next 24 hrs. SDF may see an isld shower or
sprinkle as well but the main rains will remain to the south/east of
SDF. None of the anticipate shower activity is expected to cause
reduced flight conditions. However, low cigs and some light br will
become morning likely late this evening and into the overnight
hours. Expect all TAF sites to drop into the MVFR cat below 2 kft
by around 4-6Z. Conditions may drop to IFR during the early morning
hours as well but did not have enough confidence to include that in
the TAF forecast. Will need to watch cig trends downstream tonight
though. Conditions should start to improve by early tomorrow
afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
1029 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS AT KEKO
AND KWMC AS THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH LIMITING
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. ALSO WENT AHEAD REDUCE CONVECTION AT KTPH AS
THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY IS LIFTING NORTH OF THE STATION. NO CHANGES
AT KELY WHICH SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER A UNSTABLE AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 729 AM /
SYNOPSIS...AS SMOKE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE NORTHERN NEVADA...MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...CANCELING RED FLAG WARNING. LATEST MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF PRECIP AND CONVECTION COVERAGE FROM
GFS...EURO...NAM...AND HRRR ALL INDICATE MUCH LOWER COVERAGE OF
CELLS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH AFFECTED
ENTITIES...HAVE AGREED TO CANCEL THE WARNING. UPDATED FWF OUT SOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 212 AM /
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THERE IS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS STRIKING NW THROUGH NEVADA. UNSTABLE AIR WILL LINGER
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SMOKE FROM FIRES IN OREGON AND WESTERN
NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN NEVADA AS WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES PULL IN CONTAMINATED AIR.
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL EXPAND FURTHER NORTH
AS A WEAK LOW FEATURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ATMOSPHERIC
DESTABILIZATION IN THE AFTERNOON MAY HELP DISPERSE SOME OF THE
SMOKE UP NORTH AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. HOWEVER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH WITH HIGHEST VALUES CENTRALIZED
ALONG AND NEAR THE HIGHWAY 50 CONVERGENCE ZONE. THUS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NEVADA COULD BE GOOD RAIN-PRODUCERS
WHEREAS UP NORTH...SOME DRY LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THEN ON SATURDAY...CONVECTION WILL RECUR TO AFFECT
ALL ZONES ONCE AGAIN HOWEVER COULD BE MERELY ISOLATED VS.
SCATTERED COVERAGE. AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY STILL SEE LIMITED
PRECIPITATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. GFS/EURO/DGEX AGREE
ON TIMING/ORIENTATION OF TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO INTERIOR
WEST AFTER TUESDAY 00Z. BETWEEN 06Z SUNDAY AND 00Z TUESDAY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHWEST HIGH WILL ENABLE MOSTLY WET CONVECTION OVER
LARGE PORTION OF EAST/NORTH/CENTRAL NEVADA. AS JET STREAK ENTERS
FROM SOUTHWEST AND DRIVE QUICK SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...AIRMASS
WILL DRY QUICKLY. ADDED AREAS SMOKE TO NORTHERN NEVADA 06Z-18Z
SUNDAY UNTIL THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AND TENDS TO DRIVE IT OUT.
REMAINDER OF LONG RANGE FORECAST LOOKS DRY. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
AND DOWNSLOPE OFF THE EASTERN SIERRA...EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUNSHINE FOR ADDED WARMTH.
AVIATION...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. KWMC...EXPECTING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
TAPERING OFF AFTER DARK. AREAS OF SMOKE MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO 6SM THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TENDING TO WESTERLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS EXCEPT GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS WITH STORMS OR VIRGA.
KEKO...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF SMOKE REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 6SM THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WESTERLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS BUT GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS WITH STORMS OR VIRGA. KELY...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. WESTERLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS BUT GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS WITH STORMS. KTPH...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. WEST WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS WITH STORMS. VICINITY STORMS MAY LINGER AFTER 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY AND ALL FIRE ZONES WILL BE AFFECTED. SOME
STORMS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.
HOWEVER A SURGE OF INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ENOUGH TO VALIDATE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG
WARNING...ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR FIRE ZONES 469 AND 470. EASTERN
FIRE ZONE 467 COULD ALSO SEE SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SHIFT
EAST AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AND THERE WILL BE
A POSSIBILITY FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE MOIST AIR. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING ALL NORTHERN FIRE ZONES APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABLILITY MOVING FURTHER NORTH. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE WET.
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDERS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
98/85/85
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
338 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OFFSHORE...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SLOWLY EXPANDING CUMULUS FIELD REMAINS FLAT WITH NO
HINTS OF VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL WISPS OF CIRRUS
TRAVERSING MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION PRECLUDING THE
DEVELOPMENT FOR DEEP/MOIST CONVECTION.
18/19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOES-EAST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
A NUMBER OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONNECTED TO PERSISTENT
STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING OFFSHORE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE
GULF STREAM. THE MOST PROMINENT WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 145 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE DRIFTING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...
WHILE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL LIKELY DRAW
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO INFLUENCE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FIELD OVER THE ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE H3R
MODEL WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 4KM-WRF AND RAP BRING A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS ONSHORE WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...MAINLY IMPACTING
THE BEACHES OF PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. PER
COLLABORATION WITH WFO NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
HOLDEN BEACH TO BOLIVIA...WILMINGTON AND TOPSAIL ISLAND. SOME
ACTIVITY COULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA LATE...BUT NOT
READY TO BRING POPS THAT FAR SOUTH JUST NOW.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH
MARINE STRATOCUMULUS MOVING ONSHORE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
YIELD A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CHARACTER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER-MID 60S INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY...MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTH AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE...A LONGWAVE
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LATEST NAM/EUROPEAN SCENARIOS DEPICT A
REMNANT WEDGE OF SURFACE RIDGING/ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE HOLDING
PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES...HELP AFTERNOON POPS BELOW
15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS/A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
MOISTURE PRESS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES EJECTING
E/NE THROUGH THE REGION...A WEAKENING/STALLING COLD FRONT AND PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES POOLED OVER THE REGION SHOULD SUPPORT A MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE REGIME. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DETAILS...CAPPED
POPS AT CHANCE BOTH DAYS...HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED. HIGH
PWATS AND LIGHT STEERING FLOW COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH
INLAND...WHERE A WEAKENING SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL RESIDE. THE
RELATIVE STRENGTH/POSITION OF THESE FEATURES WILL GOVERN POPS/TEMPS.
THROUGH MIDWEEK...PARAMETERS FAVOR SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN AVERAGE POPS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...TRIMMED
HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY. THEN...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO SOME
DEGREE. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXPANDS...LOWERING POPS AND HIGHER
TEMPS SHOULD PREVAIL. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LATEST
EUROPEAN SUGGESTS THAT ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION...PROBABLY SUPPORTING AT LEAST CHANCE/DIURNAL POPS AND
SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AWAY FROM
THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR IMPACTS FROM COASTAL SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KILM...KMYR AND KCRE...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO
LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION ATTM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR FRIDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
CHOPPY NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WATERS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR AND FROM SURF CITY
TO CAPE FEAR. THE GRADIENT IS THE TIGHTEST IN THIS AREA WHERE WIND
ARE 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. SEAS LOOK TO GO NO HIGHER THAN 4-5 FT
NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-4 FT SOUTHERN WATERS. WILL HOIST A SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR AMZ250- 252...HOWEVER BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY RANGING FROM N/NE
15 KT OR LESS WILL TRANSITION TO S/SW 15 KT OR LESS AROUND MIDWEEK.
SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...ST.CHS
SHORT TERM...SPR.CHS
LONG TERM...SPR.CHS
AVIATION...ST.CHS
MARINE...ST.CHS/SPR.CHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
325 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR IS SHOWING RETURNS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. MOST OF
THIS IS STILL JUST CLOUDS BUT PRECIP WILL MAKE A QUICKER
APPEARANCE THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS
THE NEW GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
BY DAYBREAK. THE LATEST HRRR HAS SHOWERS TO KCLE BY 05Z. THIS MAY
BE FAST BUT DO EXPECT PRECIP TO REACH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND NW PA BY DAYBREAK. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS
ABOUT THE EAST 2/3 OF THE AREA. THE NEAREST LIGHTNING IS HUNDREDS
OF MILES AWAY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW SO SEE NO NEED FOR A
THUNDER MENTION OVERNIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SNEAK INTO THE
LOWER 60S BY 12Z AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING BUT SKIES WILL BE GRAY AND OVERCAST BY DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
RAIN TOMORROW. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE GUIDANCE IS
GIVING CATEGORICAL POPS. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE A TENTH OR TWO
OF RAINFALL. THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TOMORROW WHICH IS SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL
MENTION THUNDER FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT ANY THAT
OCCURS WILL BE LOCALIZED. BY MID AFTERNOON OR SO...PRECIP CHANCES
IN THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. BY 00Z SUNDAY...ONLY THE EASTERN
END OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A REALISTIC SHOT FOR MORE PRECIP. THE
SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY AFFECTING THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
WILL HANG ON TO A SMALL CHANCE MENTION IN THE EAST BUT NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK AND WILL TRY FOR DRY WEATHER
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM UP DURING THE PERIOD BUT
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE 850
MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 20C WITH THE SURFACE TEMPS SOARING INTO THE 85
TO 90 DEGREE RANGE. HOT AND HUMID BUT WITH NO TRIGGER AND 700 MB
TEMPS AROUND 10C KEPT DAY DRY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS.
GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT SO HOLDS OFF THE FRONT
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO CHANCE POPS TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON THE TIMING AND HOLD OFF PRECIP UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF STALLS FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...THE GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND MOVES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. FOR NOW USED THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED BETWEEN MVFR 06Z-12Z AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW BUT
DO NOT EXPECT TO BE WIDESPREAD SO DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED EAST OF THE LAKE WILL SET UP A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...BUT RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE EASTERN LAKES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
235 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WHILE WEAK RIDGING WAS TAKING PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN WI ONTO ONTARIO. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS QUITE A BIT
OF CUMULUS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLER AIR RESIDING ALOFT. SO
FAR...NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES WERE NOTED ON RADAR AND PROBABLY
SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY WITH RAP BUFKIT SHOWING A FAIRLY GOOD CAP
RIGHT AROUND 700MB. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGED
FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS.
QUIET NIGHT ON TAP FOR THE AREA WITH SOME PASSING CUMULUS. LOOK FOR
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS 0-1KM MLCAPE BUILDS INTO THE 600-1200J/KG RANGE FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI AS THE WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. NOT
MUCH FOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AROUND TO GENERATE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDER
ACTIVITY. PLAN ON HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WI SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TAIL-END
OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIP ACROSS THAT AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH GETS DEFLECTED NORTHWEST
INTO NORTHERN MN. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES UP
ACROSS THAT AREA...WITH ARX FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY.
OTHERWISE...A BIT WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE AND DEW POINTS CREEPING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.
MODELS SHOWING GOOD CONSENSUS WITH 850-700MB WAA/ISENTROPIC
LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHRA/THUNDER CHANCES.
THE AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD CAP BUILDING IN THE 800-850MB
LAYER AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. THIS SHOULD SHUT DOWN
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. OTHERWISE...LOOKS WARMER AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE AND DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S. WITH THESE TEMPS/DEW POINTS...HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE IN
THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE
BEST FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90.
SOME LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK COOLER AS THE REGION BECOMES DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY ACROSS
THE WEST AS THE MODELS SHOW A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL GENERATE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. PLAN ON CLOUD BASES RANGING
FROM 4-8 KFT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 13 KTS WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KTS AT TIMES. THE WINDS WILLS SUBSIDE TO 6-8 KTS
THIS EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP