Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/17/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
630 AM MST TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA BEFORE MOISTURE VALUES START TO LOWER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON. MOISTURE STARTS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&
.UPDATE...RADAR AND FIRST COUPLE OF VISIBLE PICTURES SHOWING
POSSIBLE CIRCULATION OVER COCHISE COUNTY. THIS LIKELY EXPLAINS THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF WILLCOX. THE 10Z HRRR RUN SHOWED THIS
CIRCULATION WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER TODAY OCCURRING MOSTLY
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AS IT REMAINS OVER COCHISE
COUNTY. THAT WOULD PUT PINAL/ERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES THE
FAVORED AREAS FOR HEAVY RAINS AS MORNING TUCSON SOUNDING SHOWED HAD
PW OF 1.70" AND LITTLE FLOW BELOW 20KFT. NO UPDATE TO FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. WILL LET DAYSHIFT EVALUATE THE SITUATION A LITTLE BETTER
AS NEW MODEL GUIDANCE COMES IN. CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED 2+"
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATER TODAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WAS OCCURRING MOSTLY IN COCHISE
COUNTY LAST EVENING CONTINUED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY.
THESE SHOULD END BEFORE 5 AM. DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH
WILL WHICH DELAY ONSET OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. NO REAL FOCUSING
MECHANISM TODAY BUT THERE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
S-CNTRL/SW NM. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOW LIGHT FLOW
ALL THE WAY UP TO 20K FT AND COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.40" TO 1.60" RANGE...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. SO FLASH FLOODING THREAT ON THE
LOCALIZED BASIS IS ON THE HIGH SIDE WHILE SEVERE IS ON THE LOW END.
HOWEVER CAN`T PINPOINT WHICH AREA WILL SEE THE GREATEST THREAT.
LOCAL WRF RUNS SUGGEST COCHISE COUNTY AGAIN WHILE UOFA WRF RUNS NO
SO GUNG-HO. SO WILL NOT HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OBVIOUSLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY WOULD BE A CHOICE SINCE THIS
AREA IS RATHER SATURATED AFTER WHAT HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST WEEK.
SOMETHING FOR DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR.
WEDNESDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS PW VALUES START TO FALL ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY FROM TUCSON
EAST. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATING THAT PW VALUES
WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH AREA WIDE. THAT WOULD LIMIT ANY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON. WHILE THE
AREA DRYS OUT A BIT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ITS BEEN OVER A 10 DAYS WEEK SINCE TUCSON HAS
RECORDED AN ABOVE NORMAL HIGH.
MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN TO THE AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SELY. THUS EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES.
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST
CYCLE PACKAGE...LOOKS DOWN RIGHT HOT WITH BOTH GFS ON TUE AND ECMWF
ON WED...BASED ON 850-700 MB THICKNESS...HINTING AT 110 IN TUCSON.
STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THRU THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING
HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-7K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT
10-14K FT AGL WITH ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING BY 15/21Z. STORMS BECOMING
SCT-NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS/MT OBSCURATIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35-45 KTS IN THE
VICINITY OF TSRA BETWEEN 15/21Z AND 16/03Z. AFT 16/03Z STORMS BECMG
ISOLD. OTHERWISE...SFC WIND GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY IS FORECASTED
TODAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. EXPECT
STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD PICK BACK UP AGAIN DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
342 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR DISTRICT...AND BROUGHT A FEW SPRINKLES
AND LIGHT SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY. SOME DRYING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THUS A REDUCTION IN THE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AND AN END TO ANY PRECIP CHANCES. THE MARINE
LAYER AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER ALONG
WITH A MODEST COOLING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:25 PM PDT TUESDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS EARLIER TODAY ALONG
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS. IT HAS NOW PROGRESSED OUT
TO THE NORTHWEST...THOUGH CURRENT KMUX REFLECTIVITY DATA STILL SHOW
A FEW (ALBEIT ELEVATED) RETURNS NEAR THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF OUR
AREA AND WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LARGEST ASSOCIATED
PRECIP TOTAL THUS FAR NOTED WAS 0.02" AT THE BIG SUR RAWS SITE.
MID-AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND THE BAYS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
70S...AND IN THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS. IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY...IT`S AN INTERESTING MIX OF WARMING AND COOLING...RESULTING
FROM A COMBINATION OF DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...A SWITCH IN
THE COASTAL SURFACE WINDS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY...AND
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE SHIFTING NORTHWARD. AS OF 2 PM...SANTA
ROSA WAS RUNNING 13 DEGS COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND LIVERMORE
DOWN 11 DEGS...WHILE MONTEREY IS 14 DEGS WARMER AND PINNACLES NATL
PARK 13 DEGS WARMER. ALSO OF SOME NOTE ARE THE ELEVATED DEW
POINTS. 2 PM TD OBS FROM BOTH KSFO AND KPAO ARE 64 DEGS...A BIT ON
THE MUGGY SIDE BY BAY AREA STANDARDS. MARINE STRATUS HAS HUNG IN
ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM
AROUND PIGEON PT SOUTHWARD.
IN THE SHORTER TERM...MODELS ARE WIDELY DIVERGENT ON THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOONAL FLOW...WHICH IS NOW BRINGING SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA AND WITH SOME ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALREADY STARTING TO SPILL WESTWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL VALLEY. NAM AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT ARE CONSISTENT WITH
NON-NEGLIGIBLE CHANCE OF PRECIP CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF
OUTPUT INDICATE IT STAYING WELL TO OUR EAST AND NORTH. HAVE GONE
WITH A COMPROMISE FORECAST...LOW POP VALUES BUT INCLUDING MENTION
OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF OUR AREA. EVEN IN THE NAM AND HRRR SOLUTIONS...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES APPEAR TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE...BUT WILL NOTE THAT CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...MARINE STRATUS WILL EXTEND BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
IS IN FACT ALREADY BEGINNING TO EXTEND DOWN THE SALINAS VALLEY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGS
COOLER THAN THOSE TODAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...YET AGAIN HAVE NAM (AND HERE PRETTY MUCH THE NAM ALONE)
SHOWING ANOTHER POSSIBLE PULSE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS
FROM THE SIERRA...BUT WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE. SO AT THIS POINT
NOT THINKING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE
MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH
SOME DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SO ANOTHER SEVERAL DEGS OF
COOLING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS.
IN THE EXTENDED...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ASIDE FROM THE COASTAL STRATUS...AND COOLER
THAN SEASONAL NORM TEMPS INLAND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AND THEN IT LOOKS LIKE A WARMING TREND FOR NEXT WEEK AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS WESTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA WITH WARMING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. IN THIS REGARD WILL NOTE
THAT LATEST ECMWF RUN ACTUALLY TAKES THE HEIGHT AT ITS CENTER ALL
THE WAY UP TO 601 DM BY 18Z NEXT TUES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT TUESDAY...TRICKY FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS. THERE
WERE EVEN A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING BY AS WELL. IN
THE NEAR TERM...THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE KSFO AND THE APPROACH.
A CIG NEAR 2K FEET DEVELOPED OVER KSFO BAY AND WILL LINGER FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS. WILL ALLOW FOR RETURNING CIGS TONIGHT. CONF IS MEDIUM.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS NEAR 2K FEET HAVE MOVED OVER KSFO.
CAMS SHOW SOLID LAYER WITH A FEW POCKETS OF BLUE. THEREFORE...WILL
KEEP CIGS THROUGH 19Z FOR KSFO. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY. FOR
TONIGHT...WILL BRING A LOW CIG BACK INTO SFO...BUT RELATIVELY LATE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...THE BRIDGE IS REPORTING CLR...BUT MOST
LIKELY HIGH CLOUDS. A FEW LOW CIGS FROM KSFO MAY OCCASIONALLY
PASS OVER THE BRIDGE.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH EARLY RETURN OF CIGS TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:37 AM PDT TUESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL PASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION/MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
245 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES OVER THE REGION AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE CREST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA...POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILL AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO DOUBLE DIGITS OVER THE
REGION BY TOMORROW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN KERN COUNTY
DESERT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAM INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST SHOW AS MUCH AS 1.75 INCHES OF PRECIP-WATER AT
12 UTC (5 AM PDT). CLIMO VALUES FROM UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS SHOW
THESE VALUES REACHING NEAR THE MAX PRECIP-WATER VALUES FOR MID-
JULY. THEREFORE...THE CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AFFECTED AREAS IS MINIMAL TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SIERRA NEVADA IN AREAS WHERE MESO-SCALE MODELS PLACED IT THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOWING THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE HRRR MODEL AND EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD CLOSER TO YOSEMITE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT
RANGE ENSEMBLE (EVEN STORM SCALE ENSEMBLES) SUPPORT THE TREND OF
SLOWLY SHIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE
BURN AREA OF THE RIM FIRE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS THIS AFTERNOON. CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW
VERY SLOW MOTION WITH THIS AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION WHICH INCREASES
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AROUND THE YOSEMITE AREA.
WHILE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT THE ONGOING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE HRRR 1KM-AGL
REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT ONLY GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE
MODEL DOES NOT TERMINATE CONVECTION THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND
POSSIBILITY CONTINUES IT INTO THE EARLY DAWN HOURS. IN ADDITION...
ECMWF/GFS40 SHOWING ONLY A VERY SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTION /LI-CAPE
WISE/ WITH THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST BECOMING CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
YET...EVEN WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE SURGING THROUGH
THE AREA OBSERVED AND MODEL PRECIP-WATER IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF
AS YUMA SHOWS LOWER VALUES THEN LAS VEGAS. THEREFORE...WHILE
WEDNESDAY MAY BE VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE
LESS COVERAGE OVER THE DISTRICT AS THE BULK OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY SHIFT
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW FOR DIMINISHED THUNDERSTORM THREATS.
WHILE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL EXIST
ON SATURDAY...LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL KEEP IT CONFINED TO
THE HIGH COUNTY OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.
A DEEP TROF IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN TOWARD THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL SHIFT THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND STOP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEK. YET...WITH TROF WILL ALSO ALLOW THE RIDGE
TO AMPLIFY FOR ANOTHER WARMING TREND. AFTER A MINOR COOL DOWN
LATER THIS WEEK...WILL SEE WARMING (AND ABOVE 100 DEG-F) BY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA UNTIL 04Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY JULY 15 2014...UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE
AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-15 111:1972 83:1975 81:1984 54:1905
KFAT 07-16 111:1925 83:1958 80:1984 54:1905
KFAT 07-17 114:1925 78:1987 80:1984 56:1987
KBFL 07-15 114:1930 87:2011 85:1917 53:1905
KBFL 07-16 115:1925 84:1958 81:2010 52:1899
KBFL 07-17 114:1925 82:1987 81:2005 53:1905
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...WP
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
203 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WET
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING A DRYING TREND AND
LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWAT
VALUES ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS RANGING FROM OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NV TO NEAR OR ABOVE 0.80 INCHES IN THE RENO-TAHOE AREA.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED CONVECTION TO FIRE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON IN MONO COUNTY WHERE STORM CELLS WERE ALREADY
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS STORMS
DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH, THE HRRR SHOWED STORMS IN MINERAL COUNTY
AND ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT PRODUCING LARGE SCALE OUTFLOW THAT
PUSHES NORTH INTO THE BASIN AND RANGE AND SOUTHWARD INTO MONO
COUNTY. THE NAM/GFS WERE INDICATING A BROADER SCALE SIGNAL THAT
SUPPORTS THE HRRR. THIS WOULD KEEP FLASH FLOOD THREAT HIGH INTO
THIS EVENING FOR MONO COUNTY. IN THE BASIN AND RANGE, STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WOULD ACCOMPANY WEAKER STORM CELLS AS
OUTFLOW PUSHES NORTH.
WE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
IT WILL PROBABLY BE MOSTLY SHOWERS GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING. PWAT
VALUES REMAIN HIGH WED-THU (NEAR OR ABOVE ONE INCH ALONG THE
SIERRA) AND MORE STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH GENERALLY SLOW STORM
MOTIONS. CLOUDS FROM TONIGHTS SYSTEM WILL LIMIT CONVECTION NORTH
AND EAST OF RENO BUT SKIES SHOULD BREAK BY MIDDAY FURTHER SOUTH TO
ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG THE TERRAIN. POPS WERE
INCREASED TO LIKELY IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA WHERE MODEL
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH.
ON THURSDAY, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXPANDS NORTHWARD AS WEAK
UPPER JET POSITIONED ALONG THE NV-ID BORDER PLACES WESTERN NV AND
NORTHERN SIERRA IN AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BE MORE SCATTERED TO ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING AND GOOD STORM
INITIATION MIDDAY THURSDAY. POPS WERE BUMPED UP AGAIN FROM THE
SIERRA FRONT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA WHERE STORMS WILL
BE MOST WIDESPREAD. STRENGTH OF STORMS OVERALL WILL BE STRONGER ON
THURSDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. HOHMANN
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FOCUS ON THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYING TREND AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEARER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. GENERAL AGREEMENT IS
FOUND AMONGST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN SHIFTING LARGE SCALE RIDGING
EASTWARD WITH A BROAD TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE WEST COAST.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
REMAINING MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. BY SATURDAY, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO BE REPLACED BY DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT ENOUGH REMAINS TO PROVIDE
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF HWY 50.
BY SUNDAY, TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE WEST COAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AN ENHANCED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING WINDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA NORTH OF I-80. A BIT TOO EARLY TO
TALK ANY SPECIFICS ON FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS BUT THE OVERALL TREND
WILL LEND TOWARDS DRYING AND INCREASING WINDS. THE STRENGTH OF WINDS
WILL RELY LARGELY ON HOW FAR INLAND THE UPPER TROUGH CAN PENETRATE
AND THE CURRENT 12Z RUNS KEEP RIDGING STRONGER FURTHER WEST ACROSS
OUR REGION THAN THE LAST 00Z RUNS. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN
INCREASED ENSEMBLE SPREADS IN THE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH/RIDGE
WHICH LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. FUENTES
&&
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS, OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS, AND
SMALL HAIL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z THIS AFTERNOON EVENING,
BEST CHANCES FOR KMMH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z AND FOR
KTVL/KTRK/KRNO/KCXP THRU 02Z. MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
SUSANVILLE/GERLACH THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
FOR WED/THU, STORMS FOR ALL AREAS, BUT BEST THREATS FROM KTRK-KRNO
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING. PEAK TIMES SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY.
FUENTES/WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING NVZ005.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING NVZ002-003.
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ070-071.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ072-073.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
318 AM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWEST OVER
THE AREA ALLOWING FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AS WELL
AS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MIGRATE NORTH AND BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY ALLOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS TO FORM OVER
MAINLY KERN...TULARE...AND KINGS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z RUN OF
THE NAM DID INDICATE THAT SEVERAL VORT MAXES WOULD MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST INTO THE VALLEY DURING
THE TIME FRAME THAT SHOWERS FORMED. THE HRRR WAS A LITTLE SLOW TO
CAPTURE THE CURRENT SCENARIO...BUT IT DOES INDICATE THAT THE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OUT OF THE AREA...LEAVING
BEHIND DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OTHERWISE...WITH SIGNIFICANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES SO FAR ONLY FELL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S THROUGH MANY OF THE VALLEY AND DESERT LOCATIONS. IN
FACT...BAKERSFIELD SET AN ALL NEW RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR YESTERDAY...ONLY FALLING TO 83 DEGREES...WHICH BROKE THE OLD
RECORD OF 81 DEGREES SET IN 1972. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THESE HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS...WITH RECORDS
POSSIBLE.
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE SIERRA CREST AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME PART OF
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST WILL SEE CONVECTIVE ACTION...WITH MUCH
LESS CONFIDENCE OVER KERN COUNTY. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
KEEP ALL CONVECTION NORTH OF KERN COUNTY...HOWEVER...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...LEFT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE. WITH REGARDS TO THE
SIERRA CREST...MU CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO NEARLY 800
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...SIGNIFICANTLY MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN QUITE A FEW
MORE THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE HRRR DEVELOPS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CREST AS EARLY AS 19Z...WITH STORMS MOVING
WEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
FOOTHILLS...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AND POSSIBLY
ADDED TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
NORTH AS WELL. ON WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
OVER THE CREST AND BY FRIDAY...MAINLY FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD
ALONG THE CREST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND WEDNESDAY INTO THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE COOLEST DAYS OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON THESE DAYS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 90S THROUGH MANY OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BETWEEN 19Z TODAY AND 04Z WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY JULY 15 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-15 111:1972 83:1975 81:1984 54:1905
KFAT 07-16 111:1925 83:1958 80:1984 54:1905
KFAT 07-17 114:1925 78:1987 80:1984 56:1987
KBFL 07-15 114:1930 87:2011 85:1917 53:1905
KBFL 07-16 115:1925 84:1958 81:2010 52:1899
KBFL 07-17 114:1925 82:1987 81:2005 53:1905
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...RILEY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1137 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES AND GRIDS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ACROSS THE REGION. BULK OF ACTIVITYWILL
BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...NEAREST THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
THE HRRR CONTINUING TO DRIVE STORMS THROUGH 5 AM. SOUTHERN CELLS
GENERATING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH A
GENERAL SOUTHERLY MOTION. HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE NEVADA AND UTAH BORDER
DOMINATES THE BIG PICTURE TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING REMAINS STRONG
WITH HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
MOISTURE IS MORE READILY AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND
EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS REGION. WATER VAPOR SHOWS DRIER
AIR OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS. CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH CORE
ALLOWS STORMS TO DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FOR NRN LOCATIONS...TOWARD
THE SOUTH FOR SOUTHWEST COLORADO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL DRIFT OVER THE ADJACENT LOWER RIVER
VALLEYS FROM CORTEZ TO PAGOSA SPRINGS. WITH SURFACE HEATING BEING
THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE TRIGGER...MOST STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE THAT STORMS MAY CONGREGATE BETWEEN
BLANDING/BLUFF AND CORTEZ/MESA VERDE AROUND SUNSET AS STORM
OUTFLOWS MOVE TOWARD THIS REGION.
A SHORT WAVE OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ON TUESDAY...SUPPRESSING THE HIGH CORE A BIT. THE STRONGEST IMPACT
STAYS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS AREAL STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER AS AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE INCREASES FOR NE
UTAH AND NW COLORADO. SPEED SHEAR INCREASES A NOTCH AS WELL FOR
NW COLORADO AS WELL AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...THIS MAY
RESULT IN LONGER LASTING PULSE STORMS WHICH INCREASES THE CHANCE
FOR STORMS HITTING VALLEY TOWNS. THE TREND WILL BE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS FOR WRN COLORADO VALLEYS...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
OVER ELEVATED SITES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST...MOSTLY STAYING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER IT WILL REACH INTO OUR NORTHEAST CORNER EARLY WED...AND
ALONG OUR EASTERN EDGE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO MODEL TIMING OF THE
UPPER WAVE STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH THE TIMING TRENDING A LITTLE
SLOWER. THE ECMWF STILL THE SLOWEST MODEL...WITH TROUGH PASSAGE
WAITING UNTIL LATE WED OR EVEN WED NIGHT. A TRAILING PIECE OF THE
UPPER JET WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME SUPPORT THROUGH DAY
AS IT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ROUGHLY ACROSS
THE CENTER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE EXPECT WED TO REMAIN ON
THE MORE ACTIVE SIDE WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY TRAVELING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE AS COMPARED RECENT STORMS. BUT A RELATIVELY FAST
STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT HEAVY RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.
A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THU. ANOTHER WAVE WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN U.S./CANADA BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE UPPER RIDGE CONFINED TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF IS STRONGEST WITH THIS WAVE...AND WEAKER WITH
THE RIDGE BUILDING THAT FOLLOWS. THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO
DURING THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY...THE GFS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A VERY
STRONG RIDGE...597DM AT 500MB...CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS. WHILE
THE EC IS A LITTLE WEAKER...IT LOOKS LIKE VERY HOT CONDITIONS MAY
BE IN STORE. ALSO A DOWNTURN IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...BUT RECYCLED MOISTURE MAY SUPPLY A FEW TERRAIN BASED
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z/TUES. THERE WILL BE INCREASED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THESE
STORMS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH. TAF SITES FACE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH 03Z/WED. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
432 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND ONLY AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN
AND CENTRAL TACONICS UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY...
AS OF 432 PM EDT...AN INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER HAS MOVED NORTH AND EAST OF THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION IN THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT. THE CONVECTION
OVER THE DELMARVA REGION...NJ...AND THE NYC CORRIDOR IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC TROUGH...AND AN ELONGATED OR STRETCHED VORTICITY AXIS
ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW
/APPEARS TO BE A POSITIVELY TO NEUTRAL TILTED CUTOFF WITH SOME
CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATING SOME FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
POSSIBLE/. FURTHER UPSTREAM OTHER SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT DRAPPED OVER NRN AND WRN NY. SFC
DEWPTS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE IN THE 50S.
SPC CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND HAS
EXPANDED THE 30% WIND PROBABILITIES TO THE CAPITAL REGION. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT IN THE TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH PWATS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SPC RAP ANALYSIS IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH
RANGE. MLCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO 500-1000 J/KG SOUTH OF
ALB...WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITH THE GREATEST
VALUES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE...AND MULTI-
CELLS AND A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY
ORGANIZING INTO QUASI LINEAR SEGMENTS OR SMALL LINES. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL IN OUR ASSESSMENT FOR THE SEVERE THREAT IS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE LACK OF HEATING AT THE SFC WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR...AS WELL AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES DO INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS OVER THE SE
EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA WITH RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS...SO WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD TORNADO
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES/NW CT
CORRIDOR...IF SEVERE WEATHER MATERIALIZES. SO FAR THE BEST STRONG
TO SEVERE CONVECTION HAS STAYED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA.
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE TRAINING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WHERE THE
LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE S/SW IN THE H850-300 LAYER.
SOME OF THE SOUNDINGS HAVE A TALL AND SKINNY APPEARANCE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THIS REGION. WE ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE WPC DAY
1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHIC FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCEEDING THE
FFG. THEY ACTUALLY TAKE THE AXIS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THIS AREA HAS NOT HAD MUCH RAINFALL...SO AN
INCH OR EVEN TWO INCHES SHOULD NOT PROMOTE WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AT
THIS TIME.
SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORM MAY
INCREASE AS THE A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AT H250 MOVES
CLOSE TO THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT CREEPS CLOSER WITH STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE HELPING AID THE QG LIFT FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
WITH EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES OVER NIGHT. THE H850 THETA-E
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM. THE NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WEAK WAVE PERHAPS
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVER
LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI CITIES BWTN 06-12Z. THE COOLER
AIR SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE W/NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH THIS SFC WAVE...AS IT
MOVES JUST WEST OR ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY QUITE A BIT WITH GENERALLY MID 50S TO L60S
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH MID AND U60S SOUTH AND
EAST. SFC DEWPTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE 50S NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH
THE BAND OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. SLIGHT CHC TO
HIGH CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY EASTWARD IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
SOME SHOWERS. THE H850-700 FGEN DOES STRENGTHEN SOME WITH THE
FRONT...AS IT CHUGS SLOWLY EASTWARD. DRIER AIR GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING UPSTREAM
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST...AND SE CANADA. THE CUTOFF
ALSO MOVES INTO SW QUEBEC. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A TREND TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. A FEW POP-UP OR INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE WRN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER TROUGH GETTING CLOSER. H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +9C TO +14C
FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MAINLY U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEYS.
WED NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...AS A DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S WITH SOME MID AND U40 OVER THE SRN DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS.
THURSDAY...A MAINLY FAIR AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL
GET CLOSER TO THE REGION FOR PERHAPS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. H850 TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE +9C TO +12C RANGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 75F
TO 80F RANGE OVER MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS...WITH U60S TO M70S OVER
THE MTNS AND HILLS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 50S WITH MID AND UPPER 40S
OVER THE MTNS AND SRN DACKS REGION. THE SFC HIGH MOVES IN OVER THE
NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE LATE IN
DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE TN
VALLEY AND MIDWEST. FAIR AND DRY WX WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND CAPITAL
DISTRICT. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL TO CLOSE
THE WORK WEEK WITH FAIRLY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY
CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
TO START NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT ZONAL...HELPING TO
INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST REGARDING THE
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION.
THIS PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE TRIGGERED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND ATTENDENT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE
THE AREAL EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. FURTHER COMPLICATING
ISSUES WILL BE MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT...AIDED BY WEAK IMPULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE CHAOTIC QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON EACH DAY WITH FRONT
LINGERING CLOSE BY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE KALB AREA TO
JUST NORTH OF KPSF AND AROUND KGFL. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOUR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SO LITTLE LIGHTNING DUE
TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY...NO INDICATIONS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE TAFS. CEILINGS SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST ABOVE 3000
FEET BUT IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...COULD HAVE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
CEILINGS AROUND 2000-2500 FEET.
BY THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL NY/PA COULD AFFECT KALB...KPSF AND KGFL...WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE EVENING. THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS PREVENTS MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE KGFL
AND KPSF TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING
IS RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTS THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. JUST A
MENTION FOR POSSIBLE THUNDER FROM 23Z-24Z AT KALB.
STRONGER CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AROUND NJ AND BUILDING NORTH
TOWARD KPOU...AND MAY TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO KPOU FOR A TEMPO FOR
THUNDER BETWEEN 23Z-24Z. AGAIN...AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING
ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AT KGFL AND KALB
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TRENDING TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER AT KPOU
AND KPSF UNTIL AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK...AND INDICATING
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z-13Z AND VCSH THROUGH
14Z-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KPOU AND KPSF AFTER THAT.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
POSSIBLE GUST NEAR 20 KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KALB. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT SOUTH THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10 KT...THEN OVERNIGHT AND
TOWARD MORNING...WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTH AT 10 KT OR LESS
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT IN THE DAMP AIR
MASS TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100
PERCENT THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
TACONICS...AND ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
MOST MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT
THIS TIME...BUT PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC BASIN MAY EXCEED
ALERT STAGE...AND COULD APPROACH FLOOD STAGE ON WED. FOR
EXAMPLE...GAYLORDSVILLE IS FORECASTED TO BARELY EXCEED THE ITS
MINOR FLOOD STAGE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NERFC FORECASTS.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT HAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT /1-3+ INCHES/...AND THE SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED
THERE...WHERE THE FFG VALUES ARE A LITTLE LOWER.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REGION WILL REMAIN IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
THE DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH PERSISTENT PWAT/S NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES. ALSO...MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WATCH AREA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES
OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
POSSIBLE. SOME RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED ONE TO ONE AND A HALF
INCHES/HOUR. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING...WITH LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS MOST AT
RISK.
OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST. THESE LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE A
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK...AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS
TO RECEDE FAIRLY QUICKLY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
TOWARDS THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TODAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH
WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS
ENDING...AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN
AND CENTRAL TACONICS UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY...
AS OF 128 PM EDT...A BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS OCCURRING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR MASS IS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE. NEW
CONVECTION IS STARTING TO FIRE OVER NJ. THIS CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH...AND AN ELONGATED OR STRETCHED
VORTICITY AXIS ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE
CUTOFF LOW.
SPC CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND HAS
EXPANDED THE 30% WIND PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
USED THE PHRASING SOME MAY BE SEVERE IN TERMS OF THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT IN
TROPICAL LIKE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WITH PWATS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
SPC RAP ANALYSIS IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO 500-1000 J/KG SOUTH OF ALB...WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF
500-1500 J/KG. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION.
THE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE...AND MULTI-
CELLS AND A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY
ORGANIZING INTO QUASI LINEAR SEGMENTS OR SMALL LINES. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL IN OUR ASSESSMENT FOR THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE LACK OF HEATING AT THE SFC WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR...AS WELL AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-1 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES DO INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS OVER THE SE EXTREME OF
THE FCST AREA WITH RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD TORNADO IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES/NW CT CORRIDOR...IF
SEVERE WEATHER MATERIALIZES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN ANY CONVECTION. THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE GREATEST FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE THE MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REACH THE REGION
TOWARD SUNSET...IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...AND INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MAX TRANSLATING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WARMEST IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY HOLD OR
RISE SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER 70S WITHIN MUCH OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GENERALLY 65-70 ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LIFT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INDIVIDUAL
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LIKELY TRANSLATING NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
SFC WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SEEPS SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY FURTHER EXACERBATE THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. FURTHER WEST...THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
W AS THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT INTO THE 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...AS LOW LEVEL COOL AIR SEEPS EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON IF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE SLOWLY EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE CHC
POPS REMAIN. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY EVEN LINGER AS FAR W AS
THE HUDSON RIVER EARLY. EVENTUALLY...THE SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT E OF
THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORM LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS SOME
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME
SHALLOW SFC BASED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80
IN VALLEYS...AND MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WED NT-THU NT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO DEVELOP FOR
WED NT...WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR JUST ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY...AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THU NT...AS
TEMPS COOL INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO START OFF DRY ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND THEN
SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60 AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF ON THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE DELMARVA REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH A COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND
CAPE COD. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY GIVING US THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN FROM LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE KALB AREA TO
JUST NORTH OF KPSF AND AROUND KGFL. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOUR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SO LITTLE LIGHTNING DUE
TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY...NO INDICATIONS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE TAFS. CEILINGS SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST ABOVE 3000
FEET BUT IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...COULD HAVE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
CEILINGS AROUND 2000-2500 FEET.
BY THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL NY/PA COULD AFFECT KALB...KPSF AND KGFL...WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE EVENING. THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS PREVENTS MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE KGFL
AND KPSF TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING
IS RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTS THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. JUST A
MENTION FOR POSSIBLE THUNDER FROM 23Z-24Z AT KALB.
STRONGER CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AROUND NJ AND BUILDING NORTH
TOWARD KPOU...AND MAY TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO KPOU FOR A TEMPO FOR
THUNDER BETWEEN 23Z-24Z. AGAIN...AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING
ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AT KGFL AND KALB
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TRENDING TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER AT KPOU
AND KPSF UNTIL AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK...AND INDICATING
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z-13Z AND VCSH THROUGH
14Z-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KPOU AND KPSF AFTER THAT.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
POSSIBLE GUST NEAR 20 KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KALB. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT SOUTH THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10 KT...THEN OVERNIGHT AND
TOWARD MORNING...WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTH AT 10 KT OR LESS
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH TODAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS ENDING...AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
TACONICS...AND ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA ALREADY RECEIVED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-3+
INCHES LATE SUNDAY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SE CATSKILLS...AND NW CT. AN ADDITIONAL 1.5 TO 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WATCH AREA.
MOST MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT
THIS TIME...BUT PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC BASIN MAY EXCEED
ALERT STAGE...AND COULD APPROACH FLOOD STAGE ON WED.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REGION WILL REMAIN IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH PERSISTENT PWAT/S NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
ALSO...MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WATCH AREA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES
OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE. SOME RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED ONE INCH/HOUR.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...WITH LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS MOST AT RISK.
OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST. IF THE AXIS OF MOST PERSISTENT
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS OR SHIFTS FURTHER N AND W...THEN
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER IN TIME.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK...AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS
TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TODAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH
WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS
ENDING...AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN
AND CENTRAL TACONICS UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY...
AS OF 128 PM EDT...A BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS OCCURRING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR MASS IS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE. NEW
CONVECTION IS STARTING TO FIRE OVER NJ. THIS CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH...AND AN ELONGATED OR STRETCHED
VORTICITY AXIS ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE
CUTOFF LOW.
SPC CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND HAS
EXPANDED THE 30% WIND PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
USED THE PHRASING SOME MAY BE SEVERE IN TERMS OF THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT IN
TROPICAL LIKE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WITH PWATS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
SPC RAP ANALYSIS IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO 500-1000 J/KG SOUTH OF ALB...WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF
500-1500 J/KG. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION.
THE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE...AND MULTI-
CELLS AND A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY
ORGANIZING INTO QUASI LINEAR SEGMENTS OR SMALL LINES. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL IN OUR ASSESSMENT FOR THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE LACK OF HEATING AT THE SFC WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR...AS WELL AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-1 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES DO INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS OVER THE SE EXTREME OF
THE FCST AREA WITH RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD TORNADO IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES/NW CT CORRIDOR...IF
SEVERE WEATHER MATERIALIZES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN ANY CONVECTION. THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE GREATEST FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE THE MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REACH THE REGION
TOWARD SUNSET...IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...AND INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MAX TRANSLATING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WARMEST IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY HOLD OR
RISE SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER 70S WITHIN MUCH OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GENERALLY 65-70 ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LIFT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INDIVIDUAL
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LIKELY TRANSLATING NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
SFC WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SEEPS SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY FURTHER EXACERBATE THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. FURTHER WEST...THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
W AS THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT INTO THE 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...AS LOW LEVEL COOL AIR SEEPS EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON IF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE SLOWLY EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE CHC
POPS REMAIN. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY EVEN LINGER AS FAR W AS
THE HUDSON RIVER EARLY. EVENTUALLY...THE SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT E OF
THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORM LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS SOME
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME
SHALLOW SFC BASED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80
IN VALLEYS...AND MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WED NT-THU NT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO DEVELOP FOR
WED NT...WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR JUST ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY...AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THU NT...AS
TEMPS COOL INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO START OFF DRY ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND THEN
SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60 AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF ON THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE DELMARVA REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH A COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND
CAPE COD. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY GIVING US THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN FROM LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.
CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE MAINLY MVFR WITH SOME IFR PSBL ESPCLY
WHERE AND WHEN CONVECTION OCCURS. SOME VFR IN THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO PLACE
THUNDERSTORMS AT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES AS THE MODELS ARE A BIT
DIFFERENT WITH TIMING SO HAVE USED A PROB30 TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WIND
DIRECTION AND INTENSITY WILL VARY IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH TODAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS ENDING...AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
TACONICS...AND ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA ALREADY RECEIVED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-3+
INCHES LATE SUNDAY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SE CATSKILLS...AND NW CT. AN ADDITIONAL 1.5 TO 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WATCH AREA.
MOST MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT
THIS TIME...BUT PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC BASIN MAY EXCEED
ALERT STAGE...AND COULD APPROACH FLOOD STAGE ON WED.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REGION WILL REMAIN IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH PERSISTENT PWAT/S NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
ALSO...MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WATCH AREA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES
OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE. SOME RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED ONE INCH/HOUR.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...WITH LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS MOST AT RISK.
OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST. IF THE AXIS OF MOST PERSISTENT
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS OR SHIFTS FURTHER N AND W...THEN
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER IN TIME.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK...AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS
TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1011 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS ENDING...AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN
AND CENTRAL TACONICS UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY...
AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS NOT VERY UNSTABLE...AND HIGHEST PWATS IN
SOUTHERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN NY
WEAKENING AND SOME RAIN IS BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN PA. CLOUD COVER QUITE WIDESPREAD BUT SOME HOLES AND
THIN SPOTS IN PARTS OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOLES
AND THIN SPOTS SHOWING SIGNS OF CLOSING ALREADY WITH ALL THE DEEP
MOISTURE IN THE REGION AND DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTING MORE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT.
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE REGION WITH THE CURRENT RAIN AND CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
INTERIOR NY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT TO THE
BERKSHIRES...PERHAPS INCLUDING SOUTHERN VT. THE HRRR AND VARIOUS
VERSION OF THE WRF HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ABOUT THE COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH OF CONVECTION BUT BASED ON TRENDS...THE NORTHERN NY
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...THE RAIN SPREADING INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
DAY...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS COULD SE NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE THERE IS SOME SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...
EVOLUTION OF EXISTING AND INITIATION OF NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE
CLEARER.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES...SKY COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS. SEE SWODY1 FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PROVIDES OTHER DETAILS INTO THE PARAMETERS
THAT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE WEATHER THROUGH TODAY AND IS BELOW...
WITH PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.75-2 INCHES FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY...AND 1.5-1.75 TO THE N AND W...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE LIKELY WITHIN ANY CONVECTION. THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND/OR
BACKBUILDING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS
REGION. SHOULD THE MAIN AXIS OF ANY TRAINING CELLS SHIFT SLIGHTLY
FURTHER N AND W THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REACH THE REGION
TOWARD SUNSET...IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...AND INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MAX TRANSLATING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WARMEST IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOP THIS MORNING...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY HOLD OR RISE SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER 70S
WITHIN MUCH OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY 65-70 ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LIFT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INDIVIDUAL
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LIKELY TRANSLATING NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
SFC WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SEEPS SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY FURTHER EXACERBATE THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. FURTHER WEST...THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
W AS THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT INTO THE 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...AS LOW LEVEL COOL AIR SEEPS EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON IF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE SLOWLY EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE CHC
POPS REMAIN. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY EVEN LINGER AS FAR W AS
THE HUDSON RIVER EARLY. EVENTUALLY...THE SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT E OF
THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORM LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS SOME
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME
SHALLOW SFC BASED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80
IN VALLEYS...AND MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WED NT-THU NT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO DEVELOP FOR
WED NT...WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR JUST ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY...AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THU NT...AS
TEMPS COOL INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO START OFF DRY ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND THEN
SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60 AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF ON THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE DELMARVA REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH A COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND
CAPE COD. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY GIVING US THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN FROM LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.
CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE MAINLY MVFR WITH SOME IFR PSBL ESPCLY
WHERE AND WHEN CONVECTION OCCURS. SOME VFR IN THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO PLACE
THUNDERSTORMS AT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES AS THE MODELS ARE A BIT
DIFFERENT WITH TIMING SO HAVE USED A PROB30 TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WIND
DIRECTION AND INTENSITY WILL VARY IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH TODAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS ENDING...AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
TACONICS...AND ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA ALREADY RECEIVED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-3+
INCHES LATE SUNDAY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SE CATSKILLS...AND NW CT. AN ADDITIONAL 1.5 TO 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WATCH AREA.
MOST MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT
THIS TIME...BUT PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC BASIN MAY EXCEED
ALERT STAGE...AND COULD APPROACH FLOOD STAGE ON WED.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REGION WILL REMAIN IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH PERSISTENT PWAT/S NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
ALSO...MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WATCH AREA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES
OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE. SOME RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED ONE INCH/HOUR.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...WITH LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS MOST AT RISK.
OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST. IF THE AXIS OF MOST PERSISTENT
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS OR SHIFTS FURTHER N AND W...THEN
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER IN TIME.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK...AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS
TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
904 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.UPDATE...SOME LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO BRUNSWICK
GEORGIA...WITH ONE RENEGADE THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF STATENVILLE. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MARKEDLY WANE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE CURRENT FCST GRIDS.
TOMORROW MEAN FLOW INTO THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WILL BE FROM THE NW.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
ACROSS PARTICULARLY ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S. ACROSS NE FL AND COASTAL GA DEWPOINTS WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70 ALONG THE FIRST COAST. ARW DOES
SHOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE SOUTH OF DUVAL
COUNTY TO FURNISH VERY LIMITED AND ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS ST
JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...TERMINALS ACROSS NE FL AND SE GA SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE LOWER CIGS
DEVELOPING OVER NE FL TERMINALS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WHILE
MOST MODELS SHOWING A LACK OF LOWER CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD.
WITH LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PATCHY FOG
OR LOW CLOUD FORMATION. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
AS TROF MOVES OFF THE COAST AND NWLY FLOW IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
LIGHT NW SFC WINDS ARE FCST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH
EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEABREEZE DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PENINSULA.
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH GENERALLY
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 67 91 68 93 / 10 10 0 10
SSI 74 87 75 87 / 40 10 10 10
JAX 72 90 72 91 / 60 20 10 10
SGJ 74 87 74 87 / 60 20 20 10
GNV 71 91 69 91 / 40 20 20 10
OCF 72 91 71 91 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
CORDERO/ENYEDI/NELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
139 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.AVIATION...
TYPICAL DAY IN SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH A LAND BREEZE IN THE EARLY
MORNING, THE SWITCHING OVER TO A SEA BREEZE IN THE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. WITH
THE GENERAL WIND FLOW OUT OF THE WEST, IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
STORMS WILL DEVELOP FIRST AS SHOWERS, THEN GROW INTO THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR, THEN TRANSITION TO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
THUS, HAVE LEFT THE VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014/
UPDATE...CONVECTION IS ALMOST ENTIRELY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGER SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT EVERYWHERE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT, ASSIGNED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE COASTS AND ADJACENT WATERS. HRRR HAS
BEEN SHOWING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC
WATERS LATE TONIGHT...AND EVEN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH
MOVEMENT ONSHORE THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST TOWARDS DAWN. GIVEN
VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS...THIS DOES LOOK POSSIBLE. MOST
AREAS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. PLEASE SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER FORECAST DETAILS. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014/
SHORT TERM...
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND SUBTLE SSE TO S SURFACE FLOW. SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AT THIS HOUR ARE MOVING WEST...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEEPER INTO THE INTERIOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE STORMS FORM
FURTHER NORTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY JUST WEST OF I-595/I-95 IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MANY OF THESE STORMS WHICH HAVE LINED UP JUST
WEST OF THE MAJOR INTERSTATES COULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.
STORMS SHOULD ALSO PICK UP ALONG THE WEST COAST/NAPLES AND NORTH
AND EAST OF THIS REGION. THE WEAK FLOW THIS AFTERNOON IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY LEAD TO URBAN
HIGH WATER IN SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS.
A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA WILL BE THE
MAIN FEATURE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. IN RESPONSE WINDS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THE BEST
REGION FOR NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO SWING INTO THAT
DIRECTION AND MIGHT BE WISE TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE POPS IN THOSE
REGIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS LONG AS THE BOUNDARY DOESN`T SLOW.
EVOLUTION OF STORMS ON TUESDAY MAY FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN TO
TODAY...ALTHOUGH IF THE SURFACE FLOW IS A LITTLE STRONGER...MAY MITIGATE
THE VARIABLE EFFECTS THAT MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE ON
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GENERAL
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND MONDAY AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF
LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO
THE SW GRADUALLY INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH ENTERS
FLORIDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 76 90 76 / 50 30 60 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 77 91 78 / 40 30 60 20
MIAMI 89 77 90 77 / 50 30 50 20
NAPLES 89 78 89 78 / 40 20 40 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
248 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THEN BEGIN RETURNING NORTHWARD FRIDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE DISTURBANCE WILL STALL OVER THE
AREA PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT
PLUS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H25 JET
HAS ALLOWED NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONG HEATING (OUTSIDE CONVECTION) AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE-BASED LI/S OF -4 TO -6.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR 15-25 KNOTS FORECAST BY MODELS WITH THE
STRONGEST SHEAR OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GIVEN MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING. KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID
90S THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS
THIS EVENING AND EXITING TO THE EAST AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
CLOUDINESS AND MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOWER 70S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING
AND TO THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MIDLANDS BY LATE MORNING AND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BY MID
AFTERNOON. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE FLOWING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER CENTRAL FL. DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 80S ALONG THE NC LINE TO AROUND 90 IN THE CSRA AND WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. PASSING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS WILL KEEP DRIER AIR IN
PLACE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON
THURSDAY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT RETURNING
NORTHWARD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH STALLED OVER CENTRAL FL WILL
BEGIN RETURNING NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS WILL
BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE REGION AND ERODE ANY REMAINING
COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BECOME DISORGANIZED AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING THE REMAINS
OF THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CROSSING THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
IN STORMS. AIRMASS TO REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE INTO THE EVENING.
CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE BY 04Z WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHEAST BEHIND FRONT FRONT.
NAM AND RUC MODELS ARE INDICATING IFR CIGS 06Z-12Z. CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
337 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT
PLUS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H25 JET
SHOULD HELP SUPPORT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYS THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AROUND 800 PM. FORECASTED THE HIGHEST POP TOWARD THAT
TIME. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDINESS. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AND EXPECT MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. THE NAM SHOWS SURFACE-BASED LI/S OF -4
TO -6 WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SHEAR ALSO APPEARS HIGHER IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND BECAUSE OF
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING. USED THE
HOTTER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY. THE WARMER GUIDANCE USUALLY
VERIFIES BETTER JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONTS. ALSO...CLOUDINESS
AND MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SUPPORTED THE WARMER
GUIDANCE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHIFTING DEEPER MOISTURE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD BE LOW
BECAUSE OF JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE. ALL OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS
SUPPORT VERY LOW POPS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE H5 TROUGHING BECOMING PRONOUNCED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS INDICATE THE REMNANTS
OF THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE APPEARS TO BEGIN FRIDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DURING
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS
OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE CSRA EARLY THIS MORNING.
AT THIS TIME CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES. GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. FOG THREAT LOW DUE TO 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT LATEST HRRR AND LAMP SUPPORT VFR.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...20Z-24Z BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND MVFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY LINGER UNTIL AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
315 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT
PLUS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H25 JET
SHOULD HELP SUPPORT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYS THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AROUND 800 PM. FORECASTED THE HIGHEST POP TOWARD THAT
TIME. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDINESS. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AND EXPECT MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. THE NAM SHOWS SURFACE-BASED LI/S OF -4
TO -6 WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SHEAR ALSO APPEARS HIGHER IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND BECAUSE OF
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. CLOUDINESS
AND MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SUPPORTED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHIFTING DEEPER MOISTURE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD BE LOW
BECAUSE OF JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE. ALL OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS
SUPPORT VERY LOW POPS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE H5 TROUGHING BECOMING PRONOUNCED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS INDICATE THE REMNANTS
OF THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE APPEARS TO BEGIN FRIDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DURING
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS
OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE CSRA EARLY THIS MORNING.
AT THIS TIME CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES. GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. FOG THREAT LOW DUE TO 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT LATEST HRRR AND LAMP SUPPORT VFR.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...20Z-24Z BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND MVFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY LINGER UNTIL AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
129 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
STALL TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PLUS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND DIURNAL COOLING SUPPORT SCATTERED
COVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN US ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE AND UPPER
LOWS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPSTATE DURING THE MORNING AND THE MIDLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS AGREE ON A RAPID MOISTENING DURING
THE MIDDAY HOURS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY AND PRODUCE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 90S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE GFS
CONTINUING TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEEKEND. REMAINS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN FL ON THURSDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GULF STATES. AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL
REMAINS WILL BEGIN SLIDING NORTHWARD. THIS WILL PUSH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
STALLING ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE CSRA EARLY THIS MORNING.
AT THIS TIME CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES. GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. FOG THREAT LOW DUE TO 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT LATEST HRRR AND LAMP SUPPORT VFR.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...20Z-24Z BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND MVFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY LINGER UNTIL AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1203 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
STALL TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PLUS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND DIURNAL COOLING SUPPORT SCATTERED
COVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN US ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE AND UPPER
LOWS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPSTATE DURING THE MORNING AND THE MIDLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS AGREE ON A RAPID MOISTENING DURING
THE MIDDAY HOURS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY AND PRODUCE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 90S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE GFS
CONTINUING TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEEKEND. REMAINS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN FL ON THURSDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GULF STATES. AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL
REMAINS WILL BEGIN SLIDING NORTHWARD. THIS WILL PUSH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
STALLING ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE CSRA AND
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH/VCTS TO
FOR OGB/AGS/DNL UNTIL 06Z. GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM. FOG THREAT LOW DUE TO 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT LATEST HRRR AND
LAMP SUPPORT VFR. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AFTER 18Z
TUESDAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...20Z-24Z BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND MVFR OR LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT IN THE
AFTERNOON TO 20 KTS.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY AND OR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
256 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
THE ONLY THING TO REAL FORECAST ITEM TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING IS THE
REMARKABLY DEEP/UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW DIGGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.
WATER VAPOR AND EVENING UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND COLD (FOR JULY) UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION. SURFACE LOW AND INITIAL COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED EAST/SOUTH OF
THE CWA BUT SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME INSOLATION THIS MORNING
SHOULD RESULT IN RAPIDLY STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE AND LIKELY
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING
AND LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA. GIVEN THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN THE REGION...AND WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 8000FT AGL
CAN`T EVEN RULE OUT A TOUCH OF GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IF ANY MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS FORM. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE SECONDARY FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SUBSEQUENTLY IS
ONE OF THE ONLY MODELS SHOWING A LAKE BREEZE MOVING JUST INLAND
INTO NE IL...WHICH COULD CERTAINLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID- UPPER 60S TODAY
DESPITE SOME MIXED SUNSHINE...PROBABLY FALLING SHY OF RECORD COLD
HIGH TEMPS BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR NON-URBANIZED AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 40S TONIGHT
FOR LOWS...WITH SOME TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING WELL
INTO THE 40S.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GO THROUGH A DEAMPLIFICATION AND
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.CLIMATE...
347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 52 IN 1967 49 IN 1945
ROCKFORD 45 IN 1930 46 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 IN 1903 62 IN 1912
ROCKFORD 64 IN 1962 68 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THRU LATE AFTERNOON.
* LAKE BREEZE EARLY EVENING.
* SHRA THIS AFTERNOON THRU MID EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS JUST A
BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM WHICH SHOULD MOVE FAR
ENOUGH INLAND TO REACH ORD/MDW IN THE 00Z-01Z TIME FRAME THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING IS STILL A BIT LOW. AS THIS BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL TURN BACK LIGHT NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A
LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO MENTION AT DPA/ORD AND MAY NEED TO EXPAND THIS FURTHER SOUTH
TO MDW/GYY AS TRENDS EMERGE. PRECIP COVERAGE COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH
FOR OUTFLOWS TO HELP PUSH A LAKE BOUNDARY INLAND...THUS LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING. INSTABILITY IS ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED TSRA BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THIS
FORECAST. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM FOR A LAKE BREEZE...LOW FOR TIMING.
* HIGH FOR SHRA...MEDIUM FOR COVERAGE/TIMING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LAKE BREEZES POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
245 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIAN BAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BRISK NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE EVENING...POSSIBLE EVENING TURNING ONSHORE OVER THE
ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE HIGH SPREADS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE IMPACTING LAKE MICHIGAN
INTO FRIDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL COVER THE LAKE. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
TO LAKE WINNIPEG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO HUDSON BAY
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE LAKE... WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AND BECOME GENERALLY SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
243 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
THE ONLY THING TO REAL FORECAST ITEM TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING IS THE
REMARKABLY DEEP/UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW DIGGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.
WATER VAPOR AND EVENING UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND COLD (FOR JULY) UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION. SURFACE LOW AND INITIAL COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED EAST/SOUTH OF
THE CWA BUT SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME INSOLATION THIS MORNING
SHOULD RESULT IN RAPIDLY STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE AND LIKELY
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING
AND LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA. GIVEN THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN THE REGION...AND WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 8000FT AGL
CAN`T EVEN RULE OUT A TOUCH OF GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IF ANY MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS FORM. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE SECONDARY FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SUBSEQUENTLY IS
ONE OF THE ONLY MODELS SHOWING A LAKE BREEZE MOVING JUST INLAND
INTO NE IL...WHICH COULD CERTAINLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID- UPPER 60S TODAY
DESPITE SOME MIXED SUNSHINE...PROBABLY FALLING SHY OF RECORD COLD
HIGH TEMPS BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR NON-URBANIZED AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 40S TONIGHT
FOR LOWS...WITH SOME TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING WELL
INTO THE 40S.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GO THROUGH A DEAMPLIFICATION AND
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.CLIMATE...
347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 52 IN 1967 49 IN 1945
ROCKFORD 45 IN 1930 46 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 IN 1903 62 IN 1912
ROCKFORD 64 IN 1962 68 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THRU EARLY EVENING.
* LAKE BREEZE EARLY EVENING.
* SHRA THIS AFTERNOON THRU MID EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS JUST A
BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM WHICH SHOULD MOVE FAR
ENOUGH INLAND TO REACH ORD/MDW IN THE 00Z-01Z TIME FRAME THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING IS STILL A BIT LOW. AS THIS BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL TURN BACK LIGHT NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A
LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO MENTION AT DPA/ORD AND MAY NEED TO EXPAND THIS FURTHER SOUTH
TO MDW/GYY AS TRENDS EMERGE. PRECIP COVERAGE COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH
FOR OUTFLOWS TO HELP PUSH A LAKE BOUNDARY INLAND...THUS LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING. INSTABILITY IS ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED TSRA BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THIS
FORECAST. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM FOR A LAKE BREEZE...LOW FOR TIMING.
* HIGH FOR SHRA...MEDIUM FOR COVERAGE/TIMING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LAKE BREEZES POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
245 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIAN BAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BRISK NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE EVENING...POSSIBLE EVENING TURNING ONSHORE OVER THE
ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE HIGH SPREADS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE IMPACTING LAKE MICHIGAN
INTO FRIDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL COVER THE LAKE. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
TO LAKE WINNIPEG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO HUDSON BAY
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE LAKE... WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AND BECOME GENERALLY SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1246 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
THE ONLY THING TO REAL FORECAST ITEM TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING IS THE
REMARKABLY DEEP/UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW DIGGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.
WATER VAPOR AND EVENING UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND COLD (FOR JULY) UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION. SURFACE LOW AND INITIAL COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED EAST/SOUTH OF
THE CWA BUT SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME INSOLATION THIS MORNING
SHOULD RESULT IN RAPIDLY STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE AND LIKELY
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING
AND LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA. GIVEN THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN THE REGION...AND WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 8000FT AGL
CAN`T EVEN RULE OUT A TOUCH OF GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IF ANY MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS FORM. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE SECONDARY FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SUBSEQUENTLY IS
ONE OF THE ONLY MODELS SHOWING A LAKE BREEZE MOVING JUST INLAND
INTO NE IL...WHICH COULD CERTAINLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID- UPPER 60S TODAY
DESPITE SOME MIXED SUNSHINE...PROBABLY FALLING SHY OF RECORD COLD
HIGH TEMPS BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR NON-URBANIZED AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 40S TONIGHT
FOR LOWS...WITH SOME TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING WELL
INTO THE 40S.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GO THROUGH A DEAMPLIFICATION AND
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.CLIMATE...
347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 52 IN 1967 49 IN 1945
ROCKFORD 45 IN 1930 46 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 IN 1903 62 IN 1912
ROCKFORD 64 IN 1962 68 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THRU EARLY EVENING.
* LAKE BREEZE EARLY EVENING.
* SHRA THIS AFTERNOON THRU MID EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS JUST A
BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM WHICH SHOULD MOVE FAR
ENOUGH INLAND TO REACH ORD/MDW IN THE 00Z-01Z TIME FRAME THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING IS STILL A BIT LOW. AS THIS BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL TURN BACK LIGHT NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A
LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO MENTION AT DPA/ORD AND MAY NEED TO EXPAND THIS FURTHER SOUTH
TO MDW/GYY AS TRENDS EMERGE. PRECIP COVERAGE COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH
FOR OUTFLOWS TO HELP PUSH A LAKE BOUNDARY INLAND...THUS LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING. INSTABILITY IS ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED TSRA BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THIS
FORECAST. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM FOR A LAKE BREEZE...LOW FOR TIMING.
* HIGH FOR SHRA...MEDIUM FOR COVERAGE/TIMING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LAKE BREEZES POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
224 AM CDT
MAIN MARINE FOCUS IS WITH GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE
ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS. WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE
LIKELY AS UNSEASONABLY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFICIENT MIXING OF MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE-INDUCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE.
THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE LAKES ALLOWING MODEST SOUTH FLOW TO RETURN.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1104 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
THE ONLY THING TO REAL FORECAST ITEM TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING IS THE
REMARKABLY DEEP/UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW DIGGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.
WATER VAPOR AND EVENING UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND COLD (FOR JULY) UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION. SURFACE LOW AND INITIAL COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED EAST/SOUTH OF
THE CWA BUT SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME INSOLATION THIS MORNING
SHOULD RESULT IN RAPIDLY STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE AND LIKELY
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING
AND LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA. GIVEN THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN THE REGION...AND WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 8000FT AGL
CAN`T EVEN RULE OUT A TOUCH OF GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IF ANY MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS FORM. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE SECONDARY FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SUBSEQUENTLY IS
ONE OF THE ONLY MODELS SHOWING A LAKE BREEZE MOVING JUST INLAND
INTO NE IL...WHICH COULD CERTAINLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID- UPPER 60S TODAY
DESPITE SOME MIXED SUNSHINE...PROBABLY FALLING SHY OF RECORD COLD
HIGH TEMPS BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR NON-URBANIZED AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 40S TONIGHT
FOR LOWS...WITH SOME TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING WELL
INTO THE 40S.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GO THROUGH A DEAMPLIFICATION AND
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.CLIMATE...
347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 52 IN 1967 49 IN 1945
ROCKFORD 45 IN 1930 46 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 IN 1903 62 IN 1912
ROCKFORD 64 IN 1962 68 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THRU EARLY EVENING.
* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE/NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
* SCATTERED SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW CLOUDS WRAPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN
IL EARLY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION WEST OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
PATCHY LOW LAYERS FROM 1500-2500 FT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
MVFR CEILING INTO TERMINALS SHORTLY...THOUGH BASES SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LIFT INTO VFR RANGE BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH
FROM GRB TOWARD MKE OVERNIGHT ARE BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE EAST
WITH MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND RADAR TRENDS APPEAR TO SUPPORT
THIS. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL THIS
MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION
AT THIS TIME. DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GREATER COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH FOR THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ADVANCING SLOWLY FROM THE PLAINS TODAY...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE NEARLY ALL MODELS
MAINTAIN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AT LEAST ON SET OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THE GRADIENT WEAKENING
ENOUGH ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO PRODUCE A LAKE BREEZE
WITH A NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT. GYY AND MDW WOULD BE MOST DIRECTLY
IMPACTED IN THIS SCENARIO...THOUGH WITH FAIRLY DECENT NORTHWEST
GRADIENT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN LAKE BREEZE AFFECTING
ORD/MDW.
LIGHTER WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES. WINDS WILL LIKELY TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST
WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS...LOW FOR LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL/TIMING.
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LAKE BREEZES POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
224 AM CDT
MAIN MARINE FOCUS IS WITH GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE
ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS. WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE
LIKELY AS UNSEASONABLY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFICIENT MIXING OF MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE-INDUCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE.
THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE LAKES ALLOWING MODEST SOUTH FLOW TO RETURN.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
902 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
THE ONLY THING TO REAL FORECAST ITEM TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING IS THE
REMARKABLY DEEP/UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW DIGGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.
WATER VAPOR AND EVENING UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND COLD (FOR JULY) UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION. SURFACE LOW AND INITIAL COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED EAST/SOUTH OF
THE CWA BUT SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME INSOLATION THIS MORNING
SHOULD RESULT IN RAPIDLY STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE AND LIKELY
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING
AND LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA. GIVEN THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN THE REGION...AND WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 8000FT AGL
CAN`T EVEN RULE OUT A TOUCH OF GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IF ANY MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS FORM. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE SECONDARY FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SUBSEQUENTLY IS
ONE OF THE ONLY MODELS SHOWING A LAKE BREEZE MOVING JUST INLAND
INTO NE IL...WHICH COULD CERTAINLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID- UPPER 60S TODAY
DESPITE SOME MIXED SUNSHINE...PROBABLY FALLING SHY OF RECORD COLD
HIGH TEMPS BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR NON-URBANIZED AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 40S TONIGHT
FOR LOWS...WITH SOME TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING WELL
INTO THE 40S.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GO THROUGH A DEAMPLIFICATION AND
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.CLIMATE...
347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 52 IN 1967 49 IN 1945
ROCKFORD 45 IN 1930 46 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 IN 1903 62 IN 1912
ROCKFORD 64 IN 1962 68 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
* GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY.
* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE/NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
* SCATTERED SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW CLOUDS WRAPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN
IL EARLY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION WEST OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
PATCHY LOW LAYERS FROM 1500-2500 FT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
MVFR CEILING INTO TERMINALS SHORTLY...THOUGH BASES SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LIFT INTO VFR RANGE BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH
FROM GRB TOWARD MKE OVERNIGHT ARE BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE EAST
WITH MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND RADAR TRENDS APPEAR TO SUPPORT
THIS. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL THIS
MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION
AT THIS TIME. DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GREATER COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH FOR THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ADVANCING SLOWLY FROM THE PLAINS TODAY...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE NEARLY ALL MODELS
MAINTAIN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AT LEAST ON SET OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THE GRADIENT WEAKENING
ENOUGH ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO PRODUCE A LAKE BREEZE
WITH A NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT. GYY AND MDW WOULD BE MOST DIRECTLY
IMPACTED IN THIS SCENARIO...THOUGH WITH FAIRLY DECENT NORTHWEST
GRADIENT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN LAKE BREEZE AFFECTING
ORD/MDW.
LIGHTER WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES. WINDS WILL LIKELY TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST
WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...MEDIUM FOR END TIME.
* HIGH FOR WINDS...LOW FOR LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL/TIMING.
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LAKE BREEZES POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
224 AM CDT
MAIN MARINE FOCUS IS WITH GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE
ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS. WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE
LIKELY AS UNSEASONABLY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFICIENT MIXING OF MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE-INDUCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE.
THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE LAKES ALLOWING MODEST SOUTH FLOW TO RETURN.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
639 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
THE ONLY THING TO REAL FORECAST ITEM TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING IS THE
REMARKABLY DEEP/UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW DIGGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.
WATER VAPOR AND EVENING UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND COLD (FOR JULY) UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION. SURFACE LOW AND INITIAL COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED EAST/SOUTH OF
THE CWA BUT SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME INSOLATION THIS MORNING
SHOULD RESULT IN RAPIDLY STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE AND LIKELY
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING
AND LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA. GIVEN THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN THE REGION...AND WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 8000FT AGL
CAN`T EVEN RULE OUT A TOUCH OF GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IF ANY MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS FORM. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE SECONDARY FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SUBSEQUENTLY IS
ONE OF THE ONLY MODELS SHOWING A LAKE BREEZE MOVING JUST INLAND
INTO NE IL...WHICH COULD CERTAINLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID- UPPER 60S TODAY
DESPITE SOME MIXED SUNSHINE...PROBABLY FALLING SHY OF RECORD COLD
HIGH TEMPS BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR NON-URBANIZED AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 40S TONIGHT
FOR LOWS...WITH SOME TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING WELL
INTO THE 40S.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GO THROUGH A DEAMPLIFICATION AND
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.CLIMATE...
347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 52 IN 1967 49 IN 1945
ROCKFORD 45 IN 1930 46 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 IN 1903 62 IN 1912
ROCKFORD 64 IN 1962 68 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
* SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE TO SHIFT WINDS NORTHEAST...MAINLY
AT MDW.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW CLOUDS WRAPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN
IL EARLY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION WEST OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
PATCHY LOW LAYERS FROM 1500-2500 FT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
MVFR CEILING INTO TERMINALS SHORTLY...THOUGH BASES SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LIFT INTO VFR RANGE BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH
FROM GRB TOWARD MKE OVERNIGHT ARE BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE EAST
WITH MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND RADAR TRENDS APPEAR TO SUPPORT
THIS. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL THIS
MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION
AT THIS TIME. DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GREATER COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH FOR THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ADVANCING SLOWLY FROM THE PLAINS TODAY...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE NEARLY ALL MODELS
MAINTAIN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AT LEAST ON SET OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THE GRADIENT WEAKENING
ENOUGH ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO PRODUCE A LAKE BREEZE
WITH A NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT. GYY AND MDW WOULD BE MOST DIRECTLY
IMPACTED IN THIS SCENARIO...THOUGH WITH FAIRLY DECENT NORTHWEST
GRADIENT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN LAKE BREEZE AFFECTING
ORD/MDW.
LIGHTER WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES. WINDS WILL LIKELY TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST
WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHRA THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE AFFECTING TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LAKE BREEZES POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
224 AM CDT
MAIN MARINE FOCUS IS WITH GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE
ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS. WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE
LIKELY AS UNSEASONABLY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFICIENT MIXING OF MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE-INDUCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE.
THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE LAKES ALLOWING MODEST SOUTH FLOW TO RETURN.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
400 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
THE ONLY THING TO REAL FORECAST ITEM TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING IS THE
REMARKABLY DEEP/UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW DIGGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.
WATER VAPOR AND EVENING UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND COLD (FOR JULY) UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION. SURFACE LOW AND INITIAL COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED EAST/SOUTH OF
THE CWA BUT SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME INSOLATION THIS MORNING
SHOULD RESULT IN RAPIDLY STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE AND LIKELY
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING
AND LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA. GIVEN THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN THE REGION...AND WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 8000FT AGL
CAN`T EVEN RULE OUT A TOUCH OF GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IF ANY MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS FORM. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE SECONDARY FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SUBSEQUENTLY IS
ONE OF THE ONLY MODELS SHOWING A LAKE BREEZE MOVING JUST INLAND
INTO NE IL...WHICH COULD CERTAINLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID- UPPER 60S TODAY
DESPITE SOME MIXED SUNSHINE...PROBABLY FALLING SHY OF RECORD COLD
HIGH TEMPS BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR NON-URBANIZED AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 40S TONIGHT
FOR LOWS...WITH SOME TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING WELL
INTO THE 40S.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GO THROUGH A DEAMPLIFICATION AND
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.CLIMATE...
347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 52 IN 1967 49 IN 1945
ROCKFORD 45 IN 1930 46 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 IN 1903 62 IN 1912
ROCKFORD 64 IN 1962 68 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
* SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE NORTHEAST WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR MDW.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 09Z...
PATCHY MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ACROSS WI EARLY
THIS MORNING...THOUGH APPEAR TO BE A FEW HOURS OFF FROM DEVELOPING
INTO NORTHERN IL TERMINALS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A PERIOD OF MVFR 1500-ISH FT CIGS ROUGHLY 12-15Z PERIOD
BEFORE LIFTING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO VFR BY MIDDAY. ALSO...RAP REMAINS
AN ODD MODEL OUT IN MAINTAINING THE IDEA OF A WEAKENING GRADIENT
NEAR THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A LAKE BREEZE SHIFTING WINDS
NORTHEAST AT MDW AND GYY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE MODEL
CONSENSUS BEFORE BRINGING LAKE BREEZE THROUGH IN TAF...THOUGH HAVE
VEERED WINDS MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RATZER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 06Z...
COLD CORE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD LATER TODAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SLOWLY IN FROM THE WEST...A REASONABLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. SOME INDICATIONS OF A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER/ALONG SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON THAT COULD SUPPORT A NORTHEAST SHIFT TO WINDS NEAR THE
LAKE...WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST LARGE SCALE GRADIENT SUGGESTING
MDW/GYY THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE REACHED BY
POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP WITH MOISTENING IN COOL
ADVECTION...WHICH SHOULD LIFT BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALSO PRODUCE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHRA AT/NEAR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE AFFECTING ORD/MDW.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. LAKE BREEZES PSBL WED/THUR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
224 AM CDT
MAIN MARINE FOCUS IS WITH GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE
ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS. WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE
LIKELY AS UNSEASONABLY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFICIENT MIXING OF MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE-INDUCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE.
THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE LAKES ALLOWING MODEST SOUTH FLOW TO RETURN.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
334 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
THE ONLY THING TO REAL FORECAST ITEM TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING IS THE
REMARKABLY DEEP/UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW DIGGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.
WATER VAPOR AND EVENING UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND COLD (FOR JULY) UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION. SURFACE LOW AND INITIAL COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED EAST/SOUTH OF
THE CWA BUT SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME INSOLATION THIS MORNING
SHOULD RESULT IN RAPIDLY STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE AND LIKELY
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING
AND LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA. GIVEN THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN THE REGION...AND WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 8000FT AGL
CAN`T EVEN RULE OUT A TOUCH OF GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IF ANY MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS FORM. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE SECONDARY FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SUBSEQUENTLY IS
ONE OF THE ONLY MODELS SHOWING A LAKE BREEZE MOVING JUST INLAND
INTO NE IL...WHICH COULD CERTAINLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID- UPPER 60S TODAY
DESPITE SOME MIXED SUNSHINE...PROBABLY FALLING SHY OF RECORD COLD
HIGH TEMPS BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR NON-URBANIZED AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 40S TONIGHT
FOR LOWS...WITH SOME TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING WELL
INTO THE 40S.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GO THROUGH A DEAMPLIFICATION AND
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.CLIMATE...
347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 52 IN 1967 49 IN 1945
ROCKFORD 45 IN 1930 46 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 IN 1903 62 IN 1912
ROCKFORD 64 IN 1962 68 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
* SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE NORTHEAST WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR MDW.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
COLD CORE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD LATER TODAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SLOWLY IN FROM THE WEST...A REASONABLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. SOME INDICATIONS OF A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER/ALONG SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON THAT COULD SUPPORT A NORTHEAST SHIFT TO WINDS NEAR THE
LAKE...WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST LARGE SCALE GRADIENT SUGGESTING
MDW/GYY THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE REACHED BY
POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP WITH MOISTENING IN COOL
ADVECTION...WHICH SHOULD LIFT BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALSO PRODUCE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHRA AT/NEAR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE AFFECTING ORD/MDW.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. LAKE BREEZES PSBL WED/THUR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
224 AM CDT
MAIN MARINE FOCUS IS WITH GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE
ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS. WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE
LIKELY AS UNSEASONABLY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFICIENT MIXING OF MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE-INDUCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE.
THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE LAKES ALLOWING MODEST SOUTH FLOW TO RETURN.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
256 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS GOVE COUNTY BUT GIVEN
MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EVEN A LITTLE
HEATING THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...HAVE KEPT MINIMAL POPS IN
FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE
SOMEWHERE. HRRR SUPPORTS THIS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT PRECIP INDICATED
THROUGH 00Z. THE HRRR HAS HANDLED TODAYS PRECIP EVOLUTION FAIRLY
WELL.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
THIS EVENING GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE GFS SEEMS TO BLOW
UP A SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THIS EVENING AND HOLD IT TOGETHER
ALL THE WAY INTO SW KANSAS. THAT SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY AND
PREFER THE SREF FOR PRECIP TIMING AND EVOLUTION THIS EVENING.
THINKING BETTER PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT ARE WITH THE WELL-
DEVELOPED UPPER LOW NOW CROSSING MONTANA. THAT FEATURE WILL
GENERATE A DECENT ROUND OF PRECIP BUT LIKELY NOT BEFORE 06Z IN OUR
COUNTIES. AGAIN...WENT BASICALLY WITH AN SREF EVOLUTION OF PRECIP WHICH
BRINGS SHRA/TSRA SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT WITH AN EMPHASIS IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA TOMORROW.
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS THE NEXT 36 HOURS...KEEPING MID 50S
OVERNIGHT GIVEN CLOUD COVER...INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S...AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 60S ON
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
HAVE TRANSITIONED THE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS A RESULT MAINLY OF THE SURFACE WINDS TRANSITIONING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TO A MORE EAST/NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WHICH FAVORS
MORE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
FELT STRONGLY ENOUGH ABOUT THE AVAILABLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VORTICITY MAX AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM 700MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALOFT IN THE SUBSIDENT AREA BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH THE COOL AIRMASS EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S ON
FRIDAY.
EXPECT THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BECOMING WARMER
THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO AN INITIALLY MORE
ZONAL FLOW AND THEN INTO A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION BY TUESDAY.
ALSO EXPECT A TRANSITION INTO A MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN LATE DAY AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE THEREFORE
EITHER HINTED AT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK INCREASE IN POPS
OR HAVE PUT IN ISOLATED OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH LATE DAY TO
OVERNIGHT PERIODS IN DAYS 5 THROUGH 7.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014 SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA-KANSAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
OVER WYOMING TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEAST AND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER 00Z WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KGLD OVERNIGHT. VFR CEILINGS FORECAST
DURING TAF PERIOD. AS THE WYOMING SYSTEM ORGANIZES
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS
MAINLY AFTER 06Z AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD 09-12Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
152 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS GOVE COUNTY BUT GIVEN
MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EVEN A LITTLE
HEATING THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...HAVE KEPT MINIMAL POPS IN
FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE
SOMEWHERE. HRRR SUPPORTS THIS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT PRECIP INDICATED
THROUGH 00Z. THE HRRR HAS HANDLED TODAYS PRECIP EVOLUTION FAIRLY WELL.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
THIS EVENING GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE GFS SEEMS TO BLOW
UP A SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THIS EVENING AND HOLD IT TOGETHER
ALL THE WAY INTO SW KANSAS. THAT SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY AND
PREFER THE SREF FOR PRECIP TIMING AND EVOLUTION THIS EVENING.
THINKING BETTER PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT ARE WITH THE WELL-
DEVELOPED UPPER LOW NOW CROSSING MONTANA. THAT FEATURE WILL
GENERATE A DECENT ROUND OF PRECIP BUT LIKELY NOT BEFORE 06Z IN OUR
COUNTIES. AGAIN...WENT BASICALLY WITH AN SREF EVOLUTION OF PRECIP WHICH
BRINGS SHRA/TSRA SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT WITH AN EMPHASIS IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA TOMORROW.
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS THE NEXT 36 HOURS...KEEPING MID 50S
OVERNIGHT GIVEN CLOUD COVER...INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S...AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 60S ON
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
INITIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
CONVECTION IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE LATE SATURDAY IN A RELATIVELY
SHORT WINDOW WHEN WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES COMMENCE BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS.
ONE OR MORE DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE PERTURBATIONS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
COULD PROVIDE WEAK FORCING TO AID IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS LACKING CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
BUILDING UPPER HIGH...MAINLY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS PERSISTENTLY SHARPER WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH
THAN ECMWF WITH DIFFERENCES IN ITS POSITION AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN EITHER CASE THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND BELOW CLIMO POPS FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
APPROACH OR EXCEED 597 DM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014 SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA-KANSAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
OVER WYOMING TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEAST AND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER 00Z WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KGLD OVERNIGHT. VFR CEILINGS FORECAST
DURING TAF PERIOD. AS THE WYOMING SYSTEM ORGANIZES
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS
MAINLY AFTER 06Z AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD 09-12Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1130 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE POP/WX GRIDS TO BETTER DELINEATE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM BENKELMAN TO OAKLEY APPEARS RELATED TO RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 300 MB JET AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
600-700 MB LAYER. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS
IN THE 0-9 HOUR TIME FRAME...NOT ONLY FOR THE BENKELMAN TO OAKLEY
BAND BUT ALSO THE NEWLY DEVELOPING AREA OF SHOWERS OVER KIT CARSON
AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES. FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE NAM-
GFS-ECMWF WERE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT RW/TRW WILL DEVELOP
IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME WITH THE SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH PRECIP CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.
ADJUSTED POP/WX GRID TIMING ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN EXIT
NORTHWEST KANSAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER COLORADO WEDNESDAY.
FOR THIS MORNING, CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST
FA. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THESE STORMS WILL TRAVERSE OVER THIS AREA
UNTIL AROUND 18Z. PLAN TO USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENT.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, PLAN TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF
THUNDERTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM INDICATED FROM 400 TO 1000
J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN EASTERN COLORADO. SHEAR
VALUES ARE FROM 50 TO 55KTS. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY, DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO IMPACT THE
FA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND OVERSPREAD THE FA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM THIS TROUGH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY DYNAMICS START TO WANE
ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL SUPPORT
MORE THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWERS. PLAN TO CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING TO CHANCE
THURSDAY MORNING AND SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
WILL MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL BE NIL
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH READINGS IN THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
INITIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
CONVECTION IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE LATE SATURDAY IN A RELATIVELY
SHORT WINDOW WHEN WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES COMMENCE BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS.
ONE OR MORE DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE PERTURBATIONS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
COULD PROVIDE WEAK FORCING TO AID IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS LACKING CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
BUILDING UPPER HIGH...MAINLY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS PERSISTENTLY SHARPER WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH
THAN ECMWF WITH DIFFERENCES IN ITS POSITION AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN EITHER CASE THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND BELOW CLIMO POPS FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
APPROACH OR EXCEED 597 DM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014 SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA-KANSAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
OVER WYOMING TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEAST AND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER 00Z WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KGLD OVERNIGHT. VFR CEILINGS FORECAST
DURING TAF PERIOD. AS THE WYOMING SYSTEM ORGANIZES
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS
MAINLY AFTER 06Z AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD 09-12Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DLF
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
724 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE POP/WX GRIDS TO BETTER DELINEATE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM BENKELMAN TO OAKLEY APPEARS RELATED TO RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 300 MB JET AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
600-700 MB LAYER. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS
IN THE 0-9 HOUR TIME FRAME...NOT ONLY FOR THE BENKELMAN TO OAKLEY
BAND BUT ALSO THE NEWLY DEVELOPING AREA OF SHOWERS OVER KIT CARSON
AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES. FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE NAM-
GFS-ECMWF WERE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT RW/TRW WILL DEVELOP
IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME WITH THE SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH PRECIP CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.
ADJUSTED POP/WX GRID TIMING ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN EXIT
NORTHWEST KANSAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER COLORADO WEDNESDAY.
FOR THIS MORNING, CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST
FA. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THESE STORMS WILL TRAVERSE OVER THIS AREA
UNTIL AROUND 18Z. PLAN TO USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENT.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, PLAN TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF
THUNDERTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM INDICATED FROM 400 TO 1000
J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN EASTERN COLORADO. SHEAR
VALUES ARE FROM 50 TO 55KTS. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY, DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO IMPACT THE
FA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND OVERSPREAD THE FA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM THIS TROUGH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY DYNAMICS START TO WANE
ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL SUPPORT
MORE THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWERS. PLAN TO CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING TO CHANCE
THURSDAY MORNING AND SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
WILL MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL BE NIL
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH READINGS IN THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
INITIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
CONVECTION IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE LATE SATURDAY IN A RELATIVELY
SHORT WINDOW WHEN WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES COMMENCE BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS.
ONE OR MORE DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE PERTURBATIONS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
COULD PROVIDE WEAK FORCING TO AID IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS LACKING CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
BUILDING UPPER HIGH...MAINLY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS PERSISTENTLY SHARPER WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH
THAN ECMWF WITH DIFFERENCES IN ITS POSITION AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN EITHER CASE THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND BELOW CLIMO POPS FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
APPROACH OR EXCEED 597 DM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
AN ISOLATED MORNING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY MOVE NEAR THE VICINITY OF KGLD
AND KMCK. THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHEN A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AND ISOLATED THUNDERTORM. THE FORECAST SOUNDING AT KGLD
INDICATES POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DLF
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
527 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN EXIT
NORTHWEST KANSAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER COLORADO WEDNESDAY.
FOR THIS MORNING, CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST
FA. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THESE STORMS WILL TRAVERSE OVER THIS AREA
UNTIL AROUND 18Z. PLAN TO USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENT.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, PLAN TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF
THUNDERTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM INDICATED FROM 400 TO 1000
J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN EASTERN COLORADO. SHEAR
VALUES ARE FROM 50 TO 55KTS. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY, DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO IMPACT THE
FA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND OVERSPREAD THE FA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM THIS TROUGH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY DYNAMICS START TO WANE
ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL SUPPORT
MORE THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWERS. PLAN TO CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING TO CHANCE
THURSDAY MORNING AND SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
WILL MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL BE NIL
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH READINGS IN THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
INITIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
CONVECTION IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE LATE SATURDAY IN A RELATIVELY
SHORT WINDOW WHEN WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES COMMENCE BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS.
ONE OR MORE DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE PERTURBATIONS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
COULD PROVIDE WEAK FORCING TO AID IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS LACKING CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
BUILDING UPPER HIGH...MAINLY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS PERSISTENTLY SHARPER WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH
THAN ECMWF WITH DIFFERENCES IN ITS POSITION AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN EITHER CASE THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND BELOW CLIMO POPS FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
APPROACH OR EXCEED 597 DM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
AN ISOLATED MORNING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY MOVE NEAR THE VICINITY OF KGLD
AND KMCK. THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHEN A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AND ISOLATED THUNDERTORM. THE FORECAST SOUNDING AT KGLD
INDICATES POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
238 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN EXIT
NORTHWEST KANSAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER COLORADO WEDNESDAY.
FOR THIS MORNING, CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST
FA. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THESE STORMS WILL TRAVERSE OVER THIS AREA
UNTIL AROUND 18Z. PLAN TO USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENT.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, PLAN TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF
THUNDERTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM INDICATED FROM 400 TO 1000
J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN EASTERN COLORADO. SHEAR
VALUES ARE FROM 50 TO 55KTS. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY, DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO IMPACT THE
FA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND OVERSPREAD THE FA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM THIS TROUGH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY DYNAMICS START TO WANE
ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL SUPPORT
MORE THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWERS. PLAN TO CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING TO CHANCE
THURSDAY MORNING AND SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
WILL MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL BE NIL
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH READINGS IN THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
INITIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
CONVECTION IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE LATE SATURDAY IN A RELATIVELY
SHORT WINDOW WHEN WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES COMMENCE BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS.
ONE OR MORE DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE PERTURBATIONS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
COULD PROVIDE WEAK FORCING TO AID IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS LACKING CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
BUILDING UPPER HIGH...MAINLY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS PERSISTENTLY SHARPER WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH
THAN ECMWF WITH DIFFERENCES IN ITS POSITION AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN EITHER CASE THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND BELOW CLIMO POPS FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
APPROACH OR EXCEED 597 DM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING BETWEEN LIMON AND FLAGLER
INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 17Z. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP VCTS
MENTIONS IN BOTH LOCATIONS AS THE SPOTTY NATURE WILL MAKE A
DETERMINISTIC THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR A GIVEN POINT VERY
DIFFICULT AT THIS MOMENT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1149 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
00Z MODELS CONTINUING TREND OF PRODUCING 200-500 J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE AFTER 08Z IN AREA OF PERSISTENT PRESSURE ADVECTION ON 310K
SURFACE. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FROM RAP AND NAM INDICATE
SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THIS LEVEL AND WITH CINH ERODING
THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS
ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT COVERAGE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT
THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 549 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS COLORADO AND HAVE FINE TUNED TIMING OF CHANCES ACROSS
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH CHANGING AIR MASS WILL
LIMIT SFC INSTABILITY...RAP/NAM AND VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS
INDICATING STRONG WAA DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. CAPE/CINH PROFILES
WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED INITIATION BUT STILL HAVE A
FEW CONCERNS ABOUT CINH WHICH KEEP CHANCES LOW. WILL RE EVALUATE TO
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AFTER 00Z DATA COMES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COMBINED WITH A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT
RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO. MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH FAIRLY GOOD DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KTS MAY RESULT IN A SEVERE STORM OR TWO BEFORE
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AFTER SUNSET AND GRADUAL DISSIPATION.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP AHEAD TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...BY THE
AFTERNOON FALLING HEIGHTS AS THAT SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WHICH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
AXIS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHERE UP TO 2500 J/KG IS
FORECAST WITH EXCELLENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-60KTS. AS A
RESULT...SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. LCLS AND 0-1KM HELICITY FORECASTS WOULD SEEM TO
RULE OUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF SHEAR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ONCE AGAIN
MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM INCLUDE THE THE TRANSITION
FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...IN
ADDITION TO THE LIKELY POSSIBILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN TROUGH WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND ROTATES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SHORT
WAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN BREAKING DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL WAVES EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN TIMING
AND POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SEVERAL OF THE MINOR SHORT
WAVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT BECOME MORE DIVERGENT AND OUT
OF PHASE WITH SUBSEQUENT ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT...COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL
STAY OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS AS THE AIRMASS FINALLY
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT
AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER
EASTERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS AND PERSISTENT GENERALLY
MOIST UPSLOPE RETURN FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASSING OVER THE REGION...FEEL
THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUING FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS A
RESULT. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. HAVE ONLY PUT
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING BETWEEN LIMON AND FLAGLER
INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 17Z. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP VCTS
MENTIONS IN BOTH LOCATIONS AS THE SPOTTY NATURE WILL MAKE A
DETERMINISTIC THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR A GIVEN POINT VERY
DIFFICULT AT THIS MOMENT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1157 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z FORECAST. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO SAG TWD THE SOUTH. THE PROB GROUP WAS
REPLACED WITH A TEMPO AT KAEX BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS...WHILE THE PROB GROUPS WERE RETAINED AT
THE I-10 TERMINALS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LESS SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THAN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ONLY A FEW SHRA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING. OUR ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS NE TX/N LA WITH THE
LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/PRE FRONTAL TROF PRODUCED FROM THE TSRA
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SUGGESTING CONVECTION RE-FIRING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS THE DAYBREAK HOURS AS
IT CONTINUES SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT
EXPECTED AFTER 12Z ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA...AND AREAWIDE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE REGION.
THUS...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING...MAINLY
LEAVING IT AT 20%...BUMPING IT UP A BIT FOR INLAND SE TX/C LA
AFTER 06Z FOR POSSIBLE RE-INITIATION ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
RECENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND KLFT HAS DIMINISHED...LEAVING
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CONCERN TOMORROW SHIFTING
TOWARD CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. ADDED VCTS AND PROB
GROUPS STARTING 12Z AT KAEX...AND 18Z FARTHER SOUTH AT THE I-10
TERMINALS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY TO
BEGIN SOONER...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THE BULK
OF ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TIED TO/ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE SEA BREEZE IS KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TOWARDS SUNSET. STORMS OVER THE LAKES REGION
ARE BEING SUPPORT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING OFF TO THE WEST
TODAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER EAST TEXAS
AND SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AROUND THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA IS TRAVELING TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS WILL INCREASE OVER CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS COMBINATION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY... DEEP GULF
MOISTURE... THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST TEXAS
AND FINALLY A WEAK COOL FRONT OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AT THIS TIME
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ALSO
THIS WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON TEMPS A LITTLE IN CHECK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL REFLECT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY
GULF WINDS WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S INLAND TO NEAR 80
AT THE COAST.
THE COOL FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKING
FOR A SMALL DROP IN TEMPS. IN ADDITION THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
DRAG DOWN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THAT WILL HELP STORMS DEVELOPMENT ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 76 91 73 90 / 20 50 30 30
KBPT 76 92 74 91 / 20 50 30 30
KAEX 75 89 68 89 / 30 50 20 20
KLFT 76 91 72 91 / 20 50 30 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1145 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT MOST TERMINALS THIS PD...MAINLY PRIOR TO
18Z...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT REDUCED
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH ANY PREVAILING TSTMS...BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH N WINDS AROUND 10
KTS EXPECTED AFTER FROPA. WINDS WILL BECOME NEAR-CALM AFTER SUNSET
TUESDAY. /12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER AR/NE TX CONVECTION EXTENDED
FROM NEAR ELD TO JUST SOUTH OF SHREVEPORT TO SOUTH OF TYR/LFK AT
THIS HOUR. CONVECTION WAS NON EXISTENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT NEW CONVECTION WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP NORTH AND
WEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR.
A QUICK LOOK AT THE HRRR AND THE NEW NAM OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT AS
THE TRUE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...NEW CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO MIMIC
THIS THINKING OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AND FOR THIS REASON...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR TUESDAY
WITH PRECIP ENDING DURING THE MORNING I-20 AND NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS AND ALL OTHER GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO ADDITIONAL
CHANGES NECESSARY TONIGHT.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 89 66 88 68 / 50 40 10 20 40
MLU 72 89 61 87 64 / 50 50 10 10 20
DEQ 67 86 60 81 64 / 30 20 20 20 60
TXK 72 87 61 84 65 / 40 20 10 20 50
ELD 70 87 60 85 65 / 50 20 10 10 30
TYR 73 90 68 88 71 / 40 40 10 30 50
GGG 73 90 67 88 70 / 40 40 10 30 40
LFK 74 92 71 91 73 / 40 50 20 30 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
317 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. ALSO HAVE PLENTY OF LIFT DUE TO BEING IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET WHICH IS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. ALL THIS COMBINED WITH THE FRONT MOVING IN AND
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HRRR AND RUC ARE DOING A GOOD
JOB DEPICTING ONE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW ALL THESE
THUNDERSTORMS JUST SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE CORFIDI
VECTORS ONLY SHOW SLOW PROPAGATION ACROSS THE AREA OF THESE
STORMS. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AS MANY AREAS HAVE BEEN
QUITE DRY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AS THIS COULD BE
THE ONE AREA THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO PULSE UP AND BECOME SEVERE BUT THE BEST SHEAR IS MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER SUNSET THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S
WHICH MATCHES MOSGUIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT
THE SHOWERS TO END DURING THE EARLY MORNING IN THE WEST BUT TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO FINALLY END OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE EAST
WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 80 BUT OUT WEST WHERE THE SUN DOES COME OUT
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. IF CLOUDS LINGER IN THE
WEST THE HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY SOME
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MOST OF THIS MOISTURE TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA SO STILL EXPECT A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY.
FOLLOWED MOSGUIDE WITH HIGHS SLOWLY WARMING FROM THE MID 80S
THURSDAY TO NEAR 90 BY FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 60S POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
50S WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT ALL AREAS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO GET PULLED
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND, AND WE WILL LIKELY
SEE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY KICK BACK UP INCREMENTALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE WAVY FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. KEPT A LOW (SLIGHT CHC) POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS INITIAL WAVE PUSHES ACROSS...WITH HIGHER, MORE
WIDESPREAD HIGH END CHC (40%) POP SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS, WITH A SECOND PERIOD OF (MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN) 40-50% POP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS NEXT VORTMAX
PUSHES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SET UP
OFFSHORE, BRINGING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SET UP AND WARMING
TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT MAXIMA TO AVERAGE AROUND -1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND FRI-SUN,
WITH SOME WARMING BACK TOWARDS CLIMO NORMAL MON/TUE. EARLY
MORNING LOWS WILL SETTLE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVR THE CWA AS OF 2 PM IN THE
HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACRS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENG...AND HAVE
INCLUDED EITHER VCTS/VCSH INITIALLY IN ALL TAF SITES...THEN HAVE
PREVAILING -SHRAS OR -RA FOR ALL SITES THIS EVENG INTO WED MORNG.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT STRONGER TSTMS OR
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS. DID NOT
INCLUDE THESE CONDITIONS IN TAF SITES SO FAR. PCPN WILL END FM WNW
TO ESE LATE TNGT THRU WED...AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFF THE
CST. MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED WED AFTN THRU FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINED BELOW SCA CRITERIA MONDAY EVENING
AND EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WIND SENSORS IN THE MARINE AREA WERE
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR HIGHER. WAVES AND SEAS WERE UNIMPRESSIVE
INDICATING THAT THE STRONGER WINDS WERE NOT COMPLETELY MIXING TO THE
SURFACE OF THE WATER. WAVES IN THE BAY WERE MAINLY AROUND A
FOOT...PROBABLY UP TO 2 FEET IN THE CHANNELS. SEAS SUBSIDED TO
AROUND 2 TO 3 FT.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS
FROM THE S/SW UNTIL ITS PASSAGE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST DURING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY INCREASE TO AROUND
15 KNOTS TOWARD 12-15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF SCA EPISODE OVER THE BAY
WITH WATER TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE BAY CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES BUT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE.
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY) AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTION OF THE
20NM ZONES BUT HELD IT TO 4 FT OR LESS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
242 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE WEST
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1005MB LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
BACK THROUGH THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AND HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OVERALL THIS PLACES THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER SW FLOW.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE RIDGE BUILDS
OFF THE COAST. A STRONG ANTICYCLONIC UPPER JET WILL ENHANCE OVER THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITHIN THE
FAVORABLE ASCENT REGION WITHIN THE RRQ. THE BEST FORCING SHOULD
ARRIVE WITHIN THE 18-00Z WINDOW...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY TRIGGERING
IN VICINITY OF A LEE-SIDE/PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...WITH
15/03Z SREF INDICATING A 60-70% PROB OF CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
2000J/KG ACROSS THE BULK OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND THE 15/00Z GFS/NAM
INDICATING LI VALUES AVERAGING AROUND -5. THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER
FLOW GENERALLY REMAINS N OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT ENCROACHES ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE 20-30KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
WHEN COMBINED WITH LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RA IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GRIDDED FFG VALUES ARE TOO HIGH WHEN
COMPARED TO QPF FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT...AND HENCE
NO FFA IS NECESSARY. IN LOOKING AT THE MOST RECENT RUC AND THE
HRRR COULD SEE SOME EARLIER DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE COAST SO
INCREASED POPS SOME EARLIER ALONG THE COAST.
THE DAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA...AND GIVEN THIS
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS
RESULTS IN FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 OVER
THE PIEDMONT...TO THE LOW/MID 90S ALONG AND E OF I-95. AGAIN...DUE
TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS THE RIC METRO AREA SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR INTO
THE 90S BY MIDDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES BECOME LIMITED DUE TO
DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER/RA. HEAT INDICES
WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 100-104 ACROSS SE PORTIONS MIDDAY THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE. THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) WILL SHIFT
TOWARD THE COAST. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL WANE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER PREVAILING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S W...TO LOW 70S E.
POPS WILL DECREASE FROMM WNW TO ESE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER/NOT AS WARM AIRMASS EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FM THE W/NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
INCREASING SUNSHINE FM W TO E IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 80-85.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU
THURSDAY RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKY. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FM THE MID/UPPER 50S FAR NW...TO THE UPPER
60S FAR SE. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO GET PULLED
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND, AND WE WILL LIKELY
SEE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY KICK BACK UP INCREMENTALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE WAVY FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. KEPT A LOW (SLIGHT CHC) POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS INITIAL WAVE PUSHES ACROSS...WITH HIGHER, MORE
WIDESPREAD HIGH END CHC (40%) POP SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS, WITH A SECOND PERIOD OF (MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN) 40-50% POP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS NEXT VORTMAX
PUSHES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SET UP
OFFSHORE, BRINGING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SET UP AND WARMING
TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT MAXIMA TO AVERAGE AROUND -1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND FRI-SUN,
WITH SOME WARMING BACK TOWARDS CLIMO NORMAL MON/TUE. EARLY
MORNING LOWS WILL SETTLE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVR THE CWA AS OF 2 PM IN THE
HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACRS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENG...AND HAVE
INCLUDED EITHER VCTS/VCSH INITIALLY IN ALL TAF SITES...THEN HAVE
PREVAILING -SHRAS OR -RA FOR ALL SITES THIS EVENG INTO WED MORNG.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT STRONGER TSTMS OR
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS. DID NOT
INCLUDE THESE CONDITIONS IN TAF SITES SO FAR. PCPN WILL END FM WNW
TO ESE LATE TNGT THRU WED...AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFF THE
CST. MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED WED AFTN THRU FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINED BELOW SCA CRITERIA MONDAY EVENING
AND EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WIND SENSORS IN THE MARINE AREA WERE
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR HIGHER. WAVES AND SEAS WERE UNIMPRESSIVE
INDICATING THAT THE STRONGER WINDS WERE NOT COMPLETELY MIXING TO THE
SURFACE OF THE WATER. WAVES IN THE BAY WERE MAINLY AROUND A
FOOT...PROBABLY UP TO 2 FEET IN THE CHANNELS. SEAS SUBSIDED TO
AROUND 2 TO 3 FT.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS
FROM THE S/SW UNTIL ITS PASSAGE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST DURING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY INCREASE TO AROUND
15 KNOTS TOWARD 12-15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF SCA EPISODE OVER THE BAY
WITH WATER TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE BAY CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES BUT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE.
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY) AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTION OF THE
20NM ZONES BUT HELD IT TO 4 FT OR LESS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/TMG
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
208 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE WEST
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1005MB LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
BACK THROUGH THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AND HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OVERALL THIS PLACES THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER SW FLOW.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE RIDGE BUILDS
OFF THE COAST. A STRONG ANTICYCLONIC UPPER JET WILL ENHANCE OVER THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITHIN THE
FAVORABLE ASCENT REGION WITHIN THE RRQ. THE BEST FORCING SHOULD
ARRIVE WITHIN THE 18-00Z WINDOW...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY TRIGGERING
IN VICINITY OF A LEE-SIDE/PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...WITH
15/03Z SREF INDICATING A 60-70% PROB OF CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
2000J/KG ACROSS THE BULK OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND THE 15/00Z GFS/NAM
INDICATING LI VALUES AVERAGING AROUND -5. THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER
FLOW GENERALLY REMAINS N OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT ENCROACHES ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE 20-30KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
WHEN COMBINED WITH LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RA IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GRIDDED FFG VALUES ARE TOO HIGH WHEN
COMPARED TO QPF FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT...AND HENCE
NO FFA IS NECESSARY. IN LOOKING AT THE MOST RECENT RUC AND THE
HRRR COULD SEE SOME EARLIER DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE COAST SO
INCREASED POPS SOME EARLIER ALONG THE COAST.
THE DAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA...AND GIVEN THIS
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS
RESULTS IN FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 OVER
THE PIEDMONT...TO THE LOW/MID 90S ALONG AND E OF I-95. AGAIN...DUE
TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS THE RIC METRO AREA SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR INTO
THE 90S BY MIDDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES BECOME LIMITED DUE TO
DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER/RA. HEAT INDICES
WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 100-104 ACROSS SE PORTIONS MIDDAY THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE. THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) WILL SHIFT
TOWARD THE COAST. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL WANE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER PREVAILING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S W...TO LOW 70S E.
POPS WILL DECREASE FROMM WNW TO ESE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER/NOT AS WARM AIRMASS EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FM THE W/NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
INCREASING SUNSHINE FM W TO E IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 80-85.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU
THURSDAY RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKY. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FM THE MID/UPPER 50S FAR NW...TO THE UPPER
60S FAR SE. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT ORIENTED
OFFSHORE, AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ADD UP TO A DRY, PLEASANT DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, THIS PERIOD OF BENIGN
WX WL BE SHORT LIVED. A MAJORITY OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH (IN PLACE ACROSS THE PAC NW THIS AFTN) WHICH WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MIDWEEK, AND WILL BE OVER THE MID-SOUTH
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO GET PULLED BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. WL LIKELY SEE RAIN CHANCES
SLOWLY KICK BACK UP INCREMENTALLY LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE WAVY FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. STILL SOME TEMPORAL/SPATIAL DIFFERENCES TO IRON OUT, AS
IS TYPICAL THIS FAR OUT, SO TRIED TO KEEP IT SOMEWHAT GENERAL FOR
NOW. LOW (SLIGHT CHC) POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
INITIAL WAVE PUSHES ACROSS...WITH HIGHER, MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH END
CHC (40%) POP SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS.
TAILED POPS OFF SOME INLAND ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHEST POP/BEST CHC
ACROSS THE SE WITH SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY PUSHING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND OFFSHORE OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT MAXIMA TO AVERAGE AROUND -1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND FRI-SUN, WITH
SOME WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH
RETURN FLOW AND A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SETUP LOOKING TO TAKE
HOLD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL SETTLE INTO
THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVR THE CWA AS OF 2 PM IN THE
HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACRS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENG...AND HAVE
INCLUDED EITHER VCTS/VCSH INITIALLY IN ALL TAF SITES...THEN HAVE
PREVAILING -SHRAS OR -RA FOR ALL SITES THIS EVENG INTO WED MORNG.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT STRONGER TSTMS OR
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS. DID NOT
INCLUDE THESE CONDITIONS IN TAF SITES SO FAR. PCPN WILL END FM WNW
TO ESE LATE TNGT THRU WED...AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFF THE
CST. MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED WED AFTN THRU FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINED BELOW SCA CRITERIA MONDAY EVENING
AND EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WIND SENSORS IN THE MARINE AREA WERE
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR HIGHER. WAVES AND SEAS WERE UNIMPRESSIVE
INDICATING THAT THE STRONGER WINDS WERE NOT COMPLETELY MIXING TO THE
SURFACE OF THE WATER. WAVES IN THE BAY WERE MAINLY AROUND A
FOOT...PROBABLY UP TO 2 FEET IN THE CHANNELS. SEAS SUBSIDED TO
AROUND 2 TO 3 FT.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS
FROM THE S/SW UNTIL ITS PASSAGE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST DURING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY INCREASE TO AROUND
15 KNOTS TOWARD 12-15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF SCA EPISODE OVER THE BAY
WITH WATER TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE BAY CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES BUT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE.
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY) AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTION OF THE
20NM ZONES BUT HELD IT TO 4 FT OR LESS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/TMG
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1010 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE WEST
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1005MB LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
BACK THROUGH THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AND HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OVERALL THIS PLACES THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER SW FLOW.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE RIDGE BUILDS
OFF THE COAST. A STRONG ANTICYCLONIC UPPER JET WILL ENHANCE OVER THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITHIN THE
FAVORABLE ASCENT REGION WITHIN THE RRQ. THE BEST FORCING SHOULD
ARRIVE WITHIN THE 18-00Z WINDOW...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY TRIGGERING
IN VICINITY OF A LEE-SIDE/PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...WITH
15/03Z SREF INDICATING A 60-70% PROB OF CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
2000J/KG ACROSS THE BULK OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND THE 15/00Z GFS/NAM
INDICATING LI VALUES AVERAGING AROUND -5. THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER
FLOW GENERALLY REMAINS N OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT ENCROACHES ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE 20-30KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
WHEN COMBINED WITH LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RA IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GRIDDED FFG VALUES ARE TOO HIGH WHEN
COMPARED TO QPF FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT...AND HENCE
NO FFA IS NECESSARY. IN LOOKING AT THE MOST RECENT RUC AND THE
HRRR COULD SEE SOME EARLIER DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE COAST SO
INCREASED POPS SOME EARLIER ALONG THE COAST.
THE DAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA...AND GIVEN THIS
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS
RESULTS IN FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 OVER
THE PIEDMONT...TO THE LOW/MID 90S ALONG AND E OF I-95. AGAIN...DUE
TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS THE RIC METRO AREA SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR INTO
THE 90S BY MIDDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES BECOME LIMITED DUE TO
DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER/RA. HEAT INDICES
WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 100-104 ACROSS SE PORTIONS MIDDAY THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE. THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) WILL SHIFT
TOWARD THE COAST. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL WANE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER PREVAILING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S W...TO LOW 70S E.
POPS WILL DECREASE FROMM WNW TO ESE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER/NOT AS WARM AIRMASS EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FM THE W/NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
INCREASING SUNSHINE FM W TO E IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 80-85.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU
THURSDAY RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKY. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FM THE MID/UPPER 50S FAR NW...TO THE UPPER
60S FAR SE. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT ORIENTED
OFFSHORE, AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ADD UP TO A DRY, PLEASANT DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, THIS PERIOD OF BENIGN
WX WL BE SHORT LIVED. A MAJORITY OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH (IN PLACE ACROSS THE PAC NW THIS AFTN) WHICH WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MIDWEEK, AND WILL BE OVER THE MID-SOUTH
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO GET PULLED BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. WL LIKELY SEE RAIN CHANCES
SLOWLY KICK BACK UP INCREMENTALLY LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE WAVY FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. STILL SOME TEMPORAL/SPATIAL DIFFERENCES TO IRON OUT, AS
IS TYPICAL THIS FAR OUT, SO TRIED TO KEEP IT SOMEWHAT GENERAL FOR
NOW. LOW (SLIGHT CHC) POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
INITIAL WAVE PUSHES ACROSS...WITH HIGHER, MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH END
CHC (40%) POP SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS.
TAILED POPS OFF SOME INLAND ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHEST POP/BEST CHC
ACROSS THE SE WITH SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY PUSHING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND OFFSHORE OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT MAXIMA TO AVERAGE AROUND -1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND FRI-SUN, WITH
SOME WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH
RETURN FLOW AND A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SETUP LOOKING TO TAKE
HOLD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL SETTLE INTO
THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN STRATUS IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SBY WENT IFR AND MAY HAVE TEMPO CONDITIONS TIL 14Z. IF IT APPEARS
THAT IFR WILL END PRIOR TO 12Z...TAF MAY BE CORRECTED PRIOR TO 12Z.
BKN MVFR AT ECG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE MORNING BASED
ON UPSTREAM OBS IN ERN NORTH CAROLINA.
CONVECTION LIKELY LATE AFTN/EVENING BUT NO MENTION IN TAFS SINCE
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. FRONT PASSES THROUGH 06Z OR AFTER SHIFTING
WINDS TO NW/N. CHC LIGHT RAIN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ESPECIALLY ERN
PORTIONS.
EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
POINT...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTN
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR TSTMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINED BELOW SCA CRITERIA MONDAY EVENING
AND EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WIND SENSORS IN THE MARINE AREA WERE
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR HIGHER. WAVES AND SEAS WERE UNIMPRESSIVE
INDICATING THAT THE STRONGER WINDS WERE NOT COMPLETELY MIXING TO THE
SURFACE OF THE WATER. WAVES IN THE BAY WERE MAINLY AROUND A
FOOT...PROBABLY UP TO 2 FEET IN THE CHANNELS. SEAS SUBSIDED TO
AROUND 2 TO 3 FT.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS
FROM THE S/SW UNTIL ITS PASSAGE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST DURING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY INCREASE TO AROUND
15 KNOTS TOWARD 12-15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF SCA EPISODE OVER THE BAY
WITH WATER TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE BAY CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES BUT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE.
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY) AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTION OF THE
20NM ZONES BUT HELD IT TO 4 FT OR LESS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/TMG
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
458 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM/...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO BASED ON LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN MARGINAL OVERNIGHT AND
HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS CIN ERODING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PASS THROUGH BUT EVEN THEN
EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST TO ACCOMPANY ANY
SHOWERS...WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIN CAPE PROFILES AND ELS ONLY
UP TO ABOUT 20KFT. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE TO LOW.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE RIDGES BY EARLY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING AND DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS AS MINOR SHORTWAVES
ALOFT PASS OVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH...AND AS A
RESULT...HAVE SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN NOW LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. BY MONDAY UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...IFR CIGS HAVE ONLY DEVELOPED IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
THOUGHT THAT WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS WOULD BE THE CASE...ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC AT THIS POINT. ANY RESTRICTIONS THAT
DO OCCUR SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING WITH COLD FRONT BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS WITH IFR VSBY WL MAR A GENL VFR FORECAST FOR
UPR OH VALLEY TERMINALS THIS EVE AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SLIDES OVR
THE REGION. MOIST SW FLOW ON THE ERN FLANK OF THAT TROUGH WL SPPRT
FURTHER DETERIORATION LTR TNGT IN THE FORM OF IFR ST AFTR MIDNGT.
IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST BY TUE AFTN WITH DECISIVE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME RESTRICTIONS MAY DVLP WITH STRATOCU AND SCT SHWRS AS THE UPR
LOW SLIDES ACRS THE REGION ON WED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
257 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY ACROSS
THE REGION AS A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD TODAY.
THIS MORNING...THE SOMEWHAT RAGGED MID/UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED NEAR GRB. MEANWHILE...AN ACTIVE REGION OF 500 HPA
FGEN/DEFORMATION AS ANALYZED BY RAP ANALYSIS IS FORCING MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE NW CWA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A SURGE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AND IS
BRINGING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE
MID/UPPER LOW SLOWLY DEPARTING EASTWARD...PROGRESSION OF THIS PRECIP
WILL BE QUITE SLOW. HOWEVER...WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING NOTED
UPSTREAM...EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS UNDER
THE DEFORMATION BAND AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING. ALSO...A WEAK IMPULSE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AS
NOTED IN WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BRING A BATCH OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE FAR EAST CWA THROUGH MID MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP COVERAGE BECOMES MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN BY THIS TIME AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS PULLING MOST PRECIP OUT OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT AM QUITE HESITANT TO FOLLOW THIS TREND.
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYING ACROSS THE WEST ON TOP OF REMAINING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING COULD INDUCE ISOLATED
LOW-LEVEL SHOWER ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE NORTH WIND STABILIZATION OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL EARLY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CWA.
MADE ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY. OVERALL...THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
MID-JULY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST WHERE SOME CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE LOW 60S WHILE NORTHERLY
WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEP NORTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE 50S. PLACES
ACROSS THE EAST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY EVEN FAIL TO REACH 50 GIVEN
THE LONG FETCH OVER WATERS STILL IN THE UPPER 30S.
TONIGHT...SEVERAL CHALLENGES ARE PRESENT IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
MAIN ONE BEING POTENTIAL FROST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. AM
BEGINNING TO HAVE DECENT CONCERNS THAT LOW-CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE WEST HALF BEFORE LATE
TONIGHT. THE EAST HALF LOOKS TO REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH LOW-CLOUDS AND
STEADY NNW GRADIENT FLOW. THE 00Z NAM WAS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN
REMOVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING...BUT HAS BACKED OFF AND
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GEM AS OF THE 06Z RUN. HAVE
FOLLOWED THIS IDEA AND DELAYED THE DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. WITH THAT SAID...THE WESTERN THIRD OF UPPER MI HAS
THE BEST CHANCE TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST 6 HOURS OF DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.
THROUGH...PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 0.6 INCH ARE NOT OVERALL IMPRESSIVE
FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. WITH GUIDANCE THAT NORMALLY PERFORMS WELL FOR
PRIME COOLING NIGHTS ADVERTISING TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
WEST...HAD A HARD TIME GOING WELL BELOW GUIDANCE. KEPT THE GOING
FORECAST OF UPPER 30S FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS...BUT INCREASED
LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE CENTRAL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME PATCHY FROST FOR THOSE COLD SPOTS...SO CONTINUED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
AT 00Z THU...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN A DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT
STRETCHES FROM WRN QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...THE
RESULTING PATTERN WILL HAVE A SFC HIGH SITTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING TO JUST NE OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRI WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES JUST SW /OR POSSIBLE ALONG THE SW BORDER/ OF
THE CWA. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS SHOW LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES
OF QPF THU AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI /WHERE LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE WOULD OCCUR/...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP
INVERTED V LAYER AS WE SHOULD MIX TO ABOVE 800MB. THE MOISTURE WILL
LIMITED NOT JUST IN THE LOW LEVEL...WHICH WILL FURTHER MINIMIZE
PRECIP CHANCES. OVERALL...THINK A GOOD CU FIELD AND MAYBE SOME VIRGA
IS ALL THAT WILL BE OBSERVED. 850MB TEMPS WILL VARY FROM AROUND 8C E
TO 11C W. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 70S IN MOST PLACES.
NAM AND GFS SHOW ADDITIONAL QPF FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES DUE TO THE SFC HIGH MOVING E AND A SFC TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE NRN PLAINS. AGAIN...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS OUTPUT BY
THESE TWO MODELS...AND THE PLACEMENT OF THAT QPF IS ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE MAINLY OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AS MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED THAN THU AND NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE AVAILABLE. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 1C
WARMER THAN THU AND WITH CONTINUED GOOD MIXING AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE 1-2 DEGREES F WARMER THAN THU.
MORE UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. WHILE THE GFS STILL SHOWS PRECIP AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES NEARBY SAT NIGHT/SUN...IT IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT
DOES SO /AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP/. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS
/INCLUDING THE GFS/ HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND FARTHER N WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND...AS A RESULT...SHOWING LESS QPF OVER OR NEAR THE CWA.
WILL USE A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS...BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY
POPS GREATER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE THIS WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE BY 1-2C ON BOTH SAT AND SUN...AND WITH GOOD
MIXING AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SAT WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER THE INTERIOR W AND DOWNSLOPING AREAS FROM THE SW WINDS. SUN
DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS WARM AS CLOUD COVER FROM THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE MAY KEEP TEMPS 2-4 OF DEGREES LOWER AND MAINLY IN THE 70S.
MODEL DISAGREEMENT INCREASES NEXT WEEK AS CONDITIONS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON MORE SUBTLE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT PRECIP
CHANCES MAY INCREASE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BUT THAT IS FAR FROM
CERTAIN. MODELS ALSO DISAGREE ON TEMPS. THE ECMWF BRINGS 850MB TEMPS
UP TO 16C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS NEAR 22C. OF
COURSE...WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP/CLOUD COVER ON TOP OF THE
THERMAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS IS ALSO
QUITE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE EAST OF THE U.P. ALLOWING A LOWER CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KSAW TAF SITE. KCMX WILL ALSO SEE SOME
OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ALLOWING MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. KIWD WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO SEE
MAINLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY IN THE VFR CATEGORY. VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY GUSTY AT AROUND 20 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE LOW...NEAR THE CMX/SAW
TAF SITES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH IN OVER THE IWD TAF
SITE ALLOWING WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NNW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
LAKE HURON SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. PATCHY FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE WITH ANY
SHOWERS...WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AFTER THE RIDGE CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO UP TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
735 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY ACROSS
THE REGION AS A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD TODAY.
THIS MORNING...THE SOMEWHAT RAGGED MID/UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED NEAR GRB. MEANWHILE...AN ACTIVE REGION OF 500 HPA
FGEN/DEFORMATION AS ANALYZED BY RAP ANALYSIS IS FORCING MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE NW CWA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A SURGE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AND IS
BRINGING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE
MID/UPPER LOW SLOWLY DEPARTING EASTWARD...PROGRESSION OF THIS PRECIP
WILL BE QUITE SLOW. HOWEVER...WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING NOTED
UPSTREAM...EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS UNDER
THE DEFORMATION BAND AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING. ALSO...A WEAK IMPULSE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AS
NOTED IN WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BRING A BATCH OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE FAR EAST CWA THROUGH MID MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP COVERAGE BECOMES MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN BY THIS TIME AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS PULLING MOST PRECIP OUT OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT AM QUITE HESITANT TO FOLLOW THIS TREND.
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYING ACROSS THE WEST ON TOP OF REMAINING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING COULD INDUCE ISOLATED
LOW-LEVEL SHOWER ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE NORTH WIND STABILIZATION OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL EARLY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CWA.
MADE ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY. OVERALL...THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
MID-JULY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST WHERE SOME CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE LOW 60S WHILE NORTHERLY
WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEP NORTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE 50S. PLACES
ACROSS THE EAST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY EVEN FAIL TO REACH 50 GIVEN
THE LONG FETCH OVER WATERS STILL IN THE UPPER 30S.
TONIGHT...SEVERAL CHALLENGES ARE PRESENT IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
MAIN ONE BEING POTENTIAL FROST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. AM
BEGINNING TO HAVE DECENT CONCERNS THAT LOW-CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE WEST HALF BEFORE LATE
TONIGHT. THE EAST HALF LOOKS TO REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH LOW-CLOUDS AND
STEADY NNW GRADIENT FLOW. THE 00Z NAM WAS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN
REMOVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING...BUT HAS BACKED OFF AND
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GEM AS OF THE 06Z RUN. HAVE
FOLLOWED THIS IDEA AND DELAYED THE DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. WITH THAT SAID...THE WESTERN THIRD OF UPPER MI HAS
THE BEST CHANCE TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST 6 HOURS OF DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.
THROUGH...PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 0.6 INCH ARE NOT OVERALL IMPRESSIVE
FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. WITH GUIDANCE THAT NORMALLY PERFORMS WELL FOR
PRIME COOLING NIGHTS ADVERTISING TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
WEST...HAD A HARD TIME GOING WELL BELOW GUIDANCE. KEPT THE GOING
FORECAST OF UPPER 30S FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS...BUT INCREASED
LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE CENTRAL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME PATCHY FROST FOR THOSE COLD SPOTS...SO CONTINUED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NAM TAKES THE 500 MB TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE AREA 12Z WED
AND HEADS IT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. GFS DOES THE
SAME THING. BASICALLY...LOOKS QUIET AND DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI. GFS AND THE
ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z
SAT. THE GFS THEN BECOMES MUCH FASTER TAKING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EAST 12Z SUN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
TROUGH NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUE
12Z MON WITH THE GFS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS A MORE ZONAL LOOK TO IT WITH THE 500 MB PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND THIS PERIOD WITH IT REMAINING DRY
THROUGH SAT. IT WILL ALSO GET INCREASINGLY HUMID WITH DEW POINTS
INCREASING THIS WEEKEND. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A FRONT NEARS THE AREA AND THE AIRMASS GETS
UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
APPROACHING NEAR NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
A BAND OF SHRA WITH NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MI THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL BRING LIFR VIS AND CIGS TO KSAW THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
BEFORE THE SHRA BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRYING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THE
-SHRA ALREADY FINISHED AT KCMX AND KIWD...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NNW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
LAKE HURON SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. PATCHY FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE WITH ANY
SHOWERS...WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AFTER THE RIDGE CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO UP TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
428 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY ACROSS
THE REGION AS A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD TODAY.
THIS MORNING...THE SOMEWHAT RAGGED MID/UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED NEAR GRB. MEANWHILE...AN ACTIVE REGION OF 500 HPA
FGEN/DEFORMATION AS ANALYZED BY RAP ANALYSIS IS FORCING MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE NW CWA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A SURGE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AND IS
BRINGING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE
MID/UPPER LOW SLOWLY DEPARTING EASTWARD...PROGRESSION OF THIS PRECIP
WILL BE QUITE SLOW. HOWEVER...WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING NOTED
UPSTREAM...EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS UNDER
THE DEFORMATION BAND AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING. ALSO...A WEAK IMPULSE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AS
NOTED IN WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BRING A BATCH OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE FAR EAST CWA THROUGH MID MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP COVERAGE BECOMES MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN BY THIS TIME AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS PULLING MOST PRECIP OUT OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT AM QUITE HESITANT TO FOLLOW THIS TREND.
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYING ACROSS THE WEST ON TOP OF REMAINING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING COULD INDUCE ISOLATED
LOW-LEVEL SHOWER ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE NORTH WIND STABILIZATION OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL EARLY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CWA.
MADE ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY. OVERALL...THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
MID-JULY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST WHERE SOME CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE LOW 60S WHILE NORTHERLY
WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEP NORTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE 50S. PLACES
ACROSS THE EAST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY EVEN FAIL TO REACH 50 GIVEN
THE LONG FETCH OVER WATERS STILL IN THE UPPER 30S.
TONIGHT...SEVERAL CHALLENGES ARE PRESENT IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
MAIN ONE BEING POTENTIAL FROST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. AM
BEGINNING TO HAVE DECENT CONCERNS THAT LOW-CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE WEST HALF BEFORE LATE
TONIGHT. THE EAST HALF LOOKS TO REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH LOW-CLOUDS AND
STEADY NNW GRADIENT FLOW. THE 00Z NAM WAS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN
REMOVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING...BUT HAS BACKED OFF AND
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GEM AS OF THE 06Z RUN. HAVE
FOLLOWED THIS IDEA AND DELAYED THE DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. WITH THAT SAID...THE WESTERN THIRD OF UPPER MI HAS
THE BEST CHANCE TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST 6 HOURS OF DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.
THROUGH...PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 0.6 INCH ARE NOT OVERALL IMPRESSIVE
FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. WITH GUIDANCE THAT NORMALLY PERFORMS WELL FOR
PRIME COOLING NIGHTS ADVERTISING TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
WEST...HAD A HARD TIME GOING WELL BELOW GUIDANCE. KEPT THE GOING
FORECAST OF UPPER 30S FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS...BUT INCREASED
LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE CENTRAL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME PATCHY FROST FOR THOSE COLD SPOTS...SO CONTINUED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NAM TAKES THE 500 MB TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE AREA 12Z WED
AND HEADS IT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. GFS DOES THE
SAME THING. BASICALLY...LOOKS QUIET AND DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI. GFS AND THE
ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z
SAT. THE GFS THEN BECOMES MUCH FASTER TAKING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EAST 12Z SUN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
TROUGH NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUE
12Z MON WITH THE GFS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS A MORE ZONAL LOOK TO IT WITH THE 500 MB PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND THIS PERIOD WITH IT REMAINING DRY
THROUGH SAT. IT WILL ALSO GET INCREASINGLY HUMID WITH DEW POINTS
INCREASING THIS WEEKEND. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A FRONT NEARS THE AREA AND THE AIRMASS GETS
UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
APPROACHING NEAR NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
BKN BANDS OF SHRA TO THE W AND N ARE DROPPING S AND E INTO THE AREA
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN WI MOVES S AND E. AS THESE SHRA
SWING ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
KIWD/KCMX TO GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK. KSAW WILL SEE
CONDITIONS FALL TO IFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS -SHRA ARRIVE.
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TODAY AND DRIER AIR
ARRIVES...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THEN VFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
LAST AT KSAW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VFR HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NNW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
LAKE HURON SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. PATCHY FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE WITH ANY
SHOWERS...WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AFTER THE RIDGE CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO UP TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
341 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN QUEBEC TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A LOW ON THE SW FLANK OF THE
TROUGH LOCATED OVER NW WI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE LOW
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTED A BAND OF SHRA THROUGH
CNTRL/ERN CWA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA AS SBCAPE VALUES NEARED 500
J/KG. ALTHOUGH SHRA COVERAGE HAD DIMINISHED WIT MAINLY SCT/ISOLD
LIGHTER SHOWERS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE SHRA COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...ANY TSRA SHOULD ALSO END. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO
STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCT SHRA. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD LOWER MI...DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
WEAK FGEN/DEF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH RAIN COVERAGE/POPS INCREASING OVERNIGHT.
TUE...THE SHRA...ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE INTO THE TERRAIN OF N CNTRL
UPPER MI...WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES (NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE) WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S N DOWNWIND OF NNW FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NAM TAKES THE 500 MB TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE AREA 12Z WED
AND HEADS IT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. GFS DOES THE
SAME THING. BASICALLY...LOOKS QUIET AND DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI. GFS AND THE
ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z
SAT. THE GFS THEN BECOMES MUCH FASTER TAKING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EAST 12Z SUN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
TROUGH NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUE
12Z MON WITH THE GFS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS A MORE ZONAL LOOK TO IT WITH THE 500 MB PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND THIS PERIOD WITH IT REMAINING DRY
THROUGH SAT. IT WILL ALSO GET INCREASINGLY HUMID WITH DEW POINTS
INCREASING THIS WEEKEND. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A FRONT NEARS THE AREA AND THE AIRMASS GETS
UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
APPROACHING NEAR NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
BKN BANDS OF SHRA TO THE W AND N ARE DROPPING S AND E INTO THE AREA
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN WI MOVES S AND E. AS THESE SHRA
SWING ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
KIWD/KCMX TO GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK. KSAW WILL SEE
CONDITIONS FALL TO IFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS -SHRA ARRIVE.
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TODAY AND DRIER AIR
ARRIVES...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THEN VFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
LAST AT KSAW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VFR HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH INTO
THE WRN LAKES WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
SLIGHTLY AND EXTENDS A TROUGH WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE HURON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING S TO SW FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
126 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN QUEBEC TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A LOW ON THE SW FLANK OF THE
TROUGH LOCATED OVER NW WI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE LOW
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTED A BAND OF SHRA THROUGH
CNTRL/ERN CWA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA AS SBCAPE VALUES NEARED 500
J/KG. ALTHOUGH SHRA COVERAGE HAD DIMINISHED WIT MAINLY SCT/ISOLD
LIGHTER SHOWERS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE SHRA COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...ANY TSRA SHOULD ALSO END. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO
STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCT SHRA. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD LOWER MI...DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
WEAK FGEN/DEF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH RAIN COVERAGE/POPS INCREASING OVERNIGHT.
TUE...THE SHRA...ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE INTO THE TERRAIN OF N CNTRL
UPPER MI...WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES (NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE) WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S N DOWNWIND OF NNW FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS GIVEN US THE CHANCES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT REACHING THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER BY 06Z/16.
THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN U.P. CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF THE BROAD
TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL LINGERING/WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO KEEP
MAINLY CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE BETTER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME LIMITING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE EASTERN U.P.
WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. SEE DRIER AIR SLIDE
IN...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES TO COOL. PWAT VALUES
OVER THE WEST ARE PROGGED TO BE ROUGHLY 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...CREATING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING PROVIDED
WINDS LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES COULD BE QUITE CHILLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.P. WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S...WITH A FEW OF THE USUALLY COLDER LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE
MID 30S. IF WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH OVER THESE AREAS IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT PATCHY FROST COULD FORM. FOR A COMPARISON...NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE RIGHT AROUND THE MID 50S THIS TIME OF YEAR. ADDED PATCHY
FROST FOR PORTIONS OF THE INLAND WEST...HOWEVER...AM NOT EXPECTING
FROST TO BE WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WHILE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE NEAR THE
INFLECTION POINT OF THE TWO WITH HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE U.P. THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY AND TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY
EVENING...PLACING THE CWA IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR TEMPERATURES IS A GRADUAL RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL KEEPING CLOUD COVER FAIRLY
LIMITED...OTHER THAN SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE THE AREA IS
PROGGED TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AS UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGHING BEGINS
TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
TIME FRAME. THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND GENERAL PATTERN DIFFERENCE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO BE EXACT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE TROUGH MAY HAVE A BIT
OF TROUBLE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVER THE EAST...HAVE DECIDED TO
STICK CLOSELY TO THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
BKN BANDS OF SHRA TO THE W AND N ARE DROPPING S AND E INTO THE AREA
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN WI MOVES S AND E. AS THESE SHRA
SWING ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
KIWD/KCMX TO GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK. KSAW WILL SEE
CONDITIONS FALL TO IFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS -SHRA ARRIVE.
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TODAY AND DRIER AIR
ARRIVES...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THEN VFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
LAST AT KSAW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VFR HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH INTO
THE WRN LAKES WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
SLIGHTLY AND EXTENDS A TROUGH WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE HURON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING S TO SW FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO
KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL. IT WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH
SHOWERS AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CREATE A WARMING TREND TO THE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. BASED ON THE LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND FCST OF THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE IN
TONIGHT...WE HAVE DELAYED THE HIGHER CHCS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN
THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT TAKES PLACE WITH THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. THEY HAVE BEEN MORE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SE CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH...AND ACROSS THE N/NW WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD
POOL ALOFT IS MOVING IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW.
SATELLITE SHOWS A RATHER POTENT UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING IN OUR
DIRECTION. UPSTREAM SOUNDING FROM INL SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE TO THE
TROP. AS THIS COLD SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE RELATIVELY WARMER
GREAT LAKES IT WILL PICK UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO AN INCREASING AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND MORE SO
TUESDAY MORNING. THUS I AM FEATURING HIGHER THAN MOS POPS.
LOCATIONS FAVORED WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SEE THE HIGHEST POPS.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWING UP...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THUS I WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK IN THERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. NORTHWEST COUNTIES MAY
STAY IN THE 50S WITH RAIN TUESDAY. IF THE RAIN DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...MY FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
TOO LOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP
IT DRY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO
VARY ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER
AND SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
DEEPER AND WOULD LIKELY HOLD OFF THE STORMS UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL
KEEP KEEP THE RISK FOR STORMS GOING FOR SUNDAY AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES AS A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION BRING IN A MILDER AIRMASS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS LWR MI AT MIDNIGHT EXCEPT
ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WHERE/WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING. ALSO SOME POCKETS OF IFR FOG/STRATUS WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT AFTER A SHOWER HAD OCCURRED.
AFTER 09Z AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD 12Z CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MVFR
CIGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASES. SOME IFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY AT MKG.
THE LOWER CIGS WILL LINGER MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING
GRADUALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD BECOME THE PREDOMINATE
CONDITION AFTER 18Z-21Z WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS
BY TUESDAY EVENING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT FEEL THE PROBABILITY AT ANY ONE LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE TS/CB IN THE TAFS. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE THE
LOWER CEILINGS EARLY TUESDAY... AS WELL AS THE INCREASING WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
STILL ON TRACK FOR BUILDING WAVES. FSL RUC SHOWS GREATER THAN 25
KNOTS ARRIVING 10Z TO 14Z TIMEFRAME...THEN PERSISTING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COUPLED WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AND AN UNSTABLE LAKE
SUPPORTS WAVES WELL OVER 4 FEET. NOT SURE WHY GLERL DOES NOT
REALLY SHOW THIS. IN ANY EVENT IT SHOULD BE A HAZARDOUS DAY FOR
SWIMMING AND BOATING WITH SMALL CRAFT. WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
QPF VALUES LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER A HALF IN FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGHEST VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW. GENERALLY THIS IS FOR THE LOWER HALF OF OUR RIVER BASINS.
NOT ENOUGH QPF IS FORECASTED TO CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE TO FLOOD
STAGE. LOOKS DRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-
056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1246 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 824 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA.
MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ARROWHEAD...THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI. THESE SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES
AROUND THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE EASTERN FA. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE UPPER LOW AS OF 1945Z WAS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND SHOWERS
CONTINUED TO IMPACT MOST OF THE REGION. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY.
WE HAVE NOT DETECTED ANY LIGHTNING SO FAR ACROSS OUR CWA BUT THERE
WERE SOME STRONGER SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1-2
HOURS. MUCAPE VALUES RANGED FROM 100-500J/KG ACROSS THE CWA SO AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WE DO EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE SHOWERS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WE DID INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HOWEVER WE DID EVENTUALLY
DRY OUT MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY
TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE MID TO UPPER
FORTIES FOR MOST AREAS. THE RAP SUGGESTS LOWER CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO DIMINISH. THERE WERE STILL QUITE A BIT OF UPSTREAM CLOUDS.
IF WE DO CLEAR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...LOWS WILL HAVE TO BE
DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TUESDAY...BUT WE DO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS GOING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE SHOULD ALSO
SEE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT...RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
MANY WILL PROBABLY CONSIDER THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE WEEK PLEASANT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEM. THE GFS
HAS A NE TO SW ORIENTATED TROUGH MOVING SE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND INDICATES THE NORTHLAND WILL GET
SIGNIFICANT PCPN DURING THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND
GEM STALL THE TROUGH WELL NORTH OF THE NORTHLAND AND KEEP THE
NORTHLAND DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...AND TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PREFERENCE IS FOR THE ECMWF AND GEM SINCE
THESE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT1244 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCT SHOWERS INTO NW WI.
MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR. GUSTY
SFC WINDS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING AND DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 49 73 52 74 / 10 0 0 10
INL 46 75 49 77 / 0 0 0 10
BRD 50 76 54 77 / 0 0 0 10
HYR 46 75 49 75 / 10 0 0 10
ASX 45 71 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GF/DC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
423 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...THE CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA. THE
BOUNDARY SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN. THE RUC HAD THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
OVER SOUTH MS...SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...SO LEFT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WENT WITH GUIDANCE...BASICALLY
CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR A LITTLE EARLIER. THE COOLER AIR WAS
STILL LAGGING...SO MOST LOCATIONS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOOKS
LIKE HATTIESBURG STILL MANAGED THE UPPER 80S.
LOOKS LIKE SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE NORTHWEST ZONES
TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE DELTA WILL BE CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT. DEWPOINTS WERE
ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S. MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS WILL BE APPROACHING
RECORD LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WITH VALUES NEAR 60. OFFICE
CONSENSUS IS SEVERAL RECORDS WILL BE SET FOR THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE
MILD AND PLEASANT FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. LESS HUMIDITY AND A COUPLE
COOL NIGHTS. MODEL RH VALUES WERE AROUND 20-25 PERCENT WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE RETURNS BY THURSDAY WITH SOME SLIGHT WARMING...A FEW
LOCATIONS NEAR 90.
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE EURO WAS A LITTLE FASTER. INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WARM AIR. MODEL INSTABILITY ALSO
INCREASES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE POPS
OR WORDING. ISOLATED THUNDER EARLY SEEMS GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST CIGS PUSHING ABOVE MVFR CATEGORY...BUT THIS
WILL END BY EARLY EVENING AS MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
/EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 60 86 61 90 / 11 3 9 6
MERIDIAN 59 86 57 90 / 15 3 11 6
VICKSBURG 59 85 59 89 / 9 3 8 6
HATTIESBURG 66 89 60 92 / 36 7 4 4
NATCHEZ 62 84 60 88 / 19 2 4 5
GREENVILLE 61 84 61 86 / 8 3 8 6
GREENWOOD 58 83 59 87 / 7 3 9 6
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
07/EC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1103 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.UPDATE..
THE BOUNDARY HAS FINALLY MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES. DEWPOINTS
WERE FALLING WINDS WERE PICKING UP OUT OF THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE BEHIND THE FRONT...SO LEFT SMALL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...LEFT POPS
THE SAME FOR THE MOST PART. MADE LIGHTNING ISOLATED FOR THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES. LOOKS LIKE THE AREA IS LACKING INSTABILITY...BUT
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 84. WITH THE BOUNDARY NOT LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ZONES BEFORE LATE AFTERNOON...MAY LEAVE
ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN FOR MERIDIAN. RUC SHOWS THE BEST MOISTURE
FROM LAFAYETTE TO MERIDIAN...SO WILL LEAVE THOSE AREAS WITH SOME
THUNDER. RAISED POPS FOR THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION...WHERE RAIN WAS
MORE WIDESPREAD.
LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE LOCATIONS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ARE RISING SLOWLY AND THE REST OF THE AREA IS IN THE CLOUDS.
EXPECTING VALUES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S...JUST NOT CONFIDENT IN
THE MID 80S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE EASTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...COLD ADVECTION IFR STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE ALONG THE GLH-GWO-GTR CORRIDOR AS WE GO INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS STRATUS IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD BUT EXPECT IT TO MIX
OUT BEFORE ANCHORING OVER THE HKS/JAN-MEI CORRIDOR. ALL CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 3000FT AFTER 18Z..AND SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. AS WE GO THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 88 59 86 61 / 72 11 4 5
MERIDIAN 88 59 86 58 / 68 17 7 5
VICKSBURG 87 57 86 59 / 72 8 3 5
HATTIESBURG 90 65 88 60 / 74 32 8 4
NATCHEZ 87 62 83 61 / 79 20 2 5
GREENVILLE 85 60 85 62 / 23 5 2 5
GREENWOOD 86 57 84 59 / 37 5 3 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
07/EC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
1013 AM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO NYE COUNTY
ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE DRY AIR PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NEVADA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CENTRAL NEVADA,
RUNNING FROM 11 AM THROUGH 11 PM. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS WHITE PINE, NYE, AND SOUTHERN LANDER AND
EUREKA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR DEVELOPS NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE ZONES. WITH PW NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH,
AND CORFIDI VECTORS AS LOW AS 0-3 KTS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. NEAR FULL SUNSHINE OVER THESE ZONES CURRENTLY, SHOULD
LEAD TO RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY NOON. HRRR GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS THE FIRST CONVECTION AROUND EUREKA.
TURNER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 212 AM /
SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN OVERALL CONTROL
TODAY...THOUGH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR PARTICULARLY TO NORTHERN NEVADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT IN CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN NEVADA LATER IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT
PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN IT AND
PUSH IT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO
MOVE INTO ALL OF NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY...AND PUSH INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS THE DRY AIR ADVANCES. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT A
COMPLETE CESSATION OF STORMS IN CENTRAL NEVADA...JUST IN THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL SOMEWHAT FROM YESTERDAY`S
EXTREME HEAT...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE...THOUGH WEAKER...WILL REMAIN IN OVERALL
CONTROL. RCM
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ESTABLISH NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY AND CONTINUE
TO PUMP MOIST AIR INTO THE LKN CWFA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO BRING DRIER AIR INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA AND REDUCE THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NEVADA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE DURING
THE DAY WITH VERY MILD NIGHTS.
AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT MAINLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 IN CENTRAL NEVADA THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...AFFECTING KTPH AND KELY. KEKO WILL SEE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER...BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY IS IN NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA...WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES
TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY UNDISCOVERED FIRES FROM YESTERDAY`S
PLENTIFUL LIGHTNING MAY GROW RAPIDLY TODAY...BUT AT THIS TIME WE
ARE UNAWARE OF ANY ACTIVE FIRES...SO SINCE GUSTS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE 30 MPH OR LESS...NO WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST UNDER THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. WHILE THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH MOST MOISTURE OUT
OF NORTHERN NEVADA...CENTRAL NEVADA WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH HIGHER PW`S AND SLOW STORM MOTION WETTING
RAINS ARE EXPECTED AND THE ONLY DRY LIGHTNING SHOULD BE WHAT
OCCURS OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN CORES. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY INVADE
CENTRAL NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER STORM COVERAGE...AND WHILE
MOISTURE MAY START TO TURN THE CORNER AND MOVE BACK INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA...AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT ALL AREAS NORTH OF
I-80 STORM-FREE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A GENERAL RETURN WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
RCM
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
316 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. RECENT BURN SCARS AND AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE AT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL
STORM ACTIVITY WILL TREND DOWN THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A PWAT VALUE AROUND 1.21 INCHES...WHICH IS
OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINS. RECENT BURN SCARS AS WELL AS AREAS HAVING RECENTLY
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DELAYED INITIATION. THE HRRR AND RUC
DEPICT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE GILA MOUNTAINS AS THE BEST
AREAS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH IS HOLDING
TRUE BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE N
TO S...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH NE NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH AN ATTENDANT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA DUE TO INCREASED
CAPE...SHEAR...AND LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -2 AND -6. THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. LOWERED TEMPS A LITTLE MORE
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS WEDNESDAY
DESPITE SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO NW NM.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TREND DOWN THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RE-CENTERS OVER SOUTHWEST NM.
STORMS WILL BE LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT MAY INCREASE
CHANCES ACROSS THE NE. DRIER AIR UNDERNEATH THE HIGH WILL WORK
INTO WESTERN NM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FURTHER LIMITING STORM
COVERAGE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. WITH THE HIGH MOVING BACK
OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND...BECOMING NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
MODELS HINT FOR A RETURN OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REDEVELOPING THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. BUT STILL LATE IN THE RUNS TO PUT MUCH STOCK IN THAT
OUTLOOK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. ONE
MORE DAY OF WIDESPREAD MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE GRADUAL DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE GOT WORKED OVER BY YESTERDAY/LAST
NIGHTS RAIN. THUS A MORE STABLE START. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A MATURE MCV OR SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY. OTHER AREAS WILL BE SLOW TO
DEVELOP DUE TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS RAIN. NOT EXPECTING NEAR THE COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND STORMS TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL BE PRETTY GOOD WITH HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
THE STAGE IS SET FOR A PRETTY DYNAMIC PERIOD STARTING WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE THAT CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER MONTANA WILL DROP DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A CORRESPONDING SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE UP
WITH THE MAIN WETTING RAIN FOCUS PLACED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AND
PROVIDE A DECENT FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. MORE NOTICEABLE WILL BE THE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND GRADIENT FOUND
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. MODERATELY BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FAIRLY EARLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. A
MORE NORTHERLY COLD FRONTAL PUNCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RECYCLING OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FIRE UP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS THURSDAY AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CELL ACTIVITY WILL BE
MUCH MORE LIMITED ACROSS THE WEST WITH SMALLER FOOTPRINTS OF
MOISTURE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS THAT WILL FILTER
IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING. STILL SEEING SOME
LOCALIZED HAINES 6 VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
AREA. LOW/MID TEEN RH VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAN JUAN
PLATEAU....MUCH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. A FEW
WEST/NORTHWEST RESIDUAL BREEZES ACROSS THE WEST. ANY CELLS THAT DO
FOR SHOULD CONTAIN SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW/DOWNDRAFT WINDS DUE TO THE MID
LEVEL DRYING.
CAN SEE A BRIEF APPEARANCE OF A WESTERLY PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL COME UP BUT EXPECT THAT TO BE
A BRIEF ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES AND DROP HUMIDITY VALUES
ACCORDINGLY. LOOKING AT MORE NUMEROUS TEEN READINGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME BUILDUPS BUT WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINT WOULD BE SMALL IF NOT NONEXISTENT. THIS MEANS A MIX OF
WET/DRY STORMS WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW/DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHWARD AND AFFECT NEW MEXICO/S WEATHER
DURING THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM AND EVENTUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS. HUMIDITY
VALUES SHOULD LOWER AREAWIDE BUT NOT EXPECTING VALUES TO DROP OUT OF
SITE LIKE JUNE READINGS. STILL LOOKING AT SOME HAINES 6 READINGS. AS
THE HEAT PUMP BUILDS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY FLOW BACK
INTO THE UPPER HIGH FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS APPEARS TO BE A
GRADUAL PROCESS BASED ON CURRENT AND PAST MODEL TRENDS. THUS...A
DOWN TREND IN MONSOONAL WETTING RAIN IS INEVITABLE AND EXPECTED FOR
A FEW DAYS.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. RESIDUAL MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS ALSO
IMPACTING A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA. DECIDED TO TAME DOWN TS THREAT
AT MANY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...GUP/FMN/ROW HAVE DECENT CHANCE AT
BEING IMPACTED BY TS OR SH AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE
EVENING. FMN LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LATER BASED ON UPSTREAM
SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS. CARRYING VCSH AT AEG/SAF/ABQ AND TCC
AS A PLACEHOLDER UNTIL DISTINCT PRECIPITATION/CELL TRENDS CAN BE
DISTINGUISHED. PROBABLY IMPACT RG VALLEY LOCATIONS LATER IN THE
DAY. NOT LOOKING AT NEARLY AS MUCH ACTIVITY TONIGHT COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT. FAVORING WESTERN AREAS THOUGH.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 65 91 60 93 / 40 20 30 10
DULCE........................... 51 84 48 88 / 50 40 40 30
CUBA............................ 54 82 53 85 / 60 40 40 40
GALLUP.......................... 58 87 55 88 / 50 30 30 20
EL MORRO........................ 53 79 53 82 / 60 50 40 30
GRANTS.......................... 54 84 54 87 / 60 40 40 20
QUEMADO......................... 56 79 55 83 / 50 50 40 30
GLENWOOD........................ 57 87 58 91 / 40 30 30 20
CHAMA........................... 46 77 46 78 / 60 50 50 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 80 59 81 / 50 40 50 30
PECOS........................... 54 78 55 75 / 50 50 60 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 78 51 75 / 50 50 60 40
RED RIVER....................... 46 68 45 64 / 60 70 60 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 74 43 69 / 50 60 60 60
TAOS............................ 52 80 51 78 / 50 50 50 40
MORA............................ 52 77 51 72 / 50 60 60 60
ESPANOLA........................ 57 85 56 86 / 50 30 40 30
SANTA FE........................ 59 80 59 80 / 50 40 50 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 57 87 57 86 / 50 30 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 63 86 64 87 / 50 30 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 88 66 90 / 50 30 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 62 91 62 94 / 50 30 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 90 63 92 / 50 30 40 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 61 91 61 94 / 40 30 40 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 64 91 64 93 / 50 30 40 20
SOCORRO......................... 66 93 67 96 / 40 40 40 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 87 60 86 / 50 40 40 40
TIJERAS......................... 58 85 59 85 / 50 40 40 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 84 53 82 / 50 50 50 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 83 56 79 / 50 50 50 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 83 60 83 / 50 50 50 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 84 64 86 / 40 40 40 40
RUIDOSO......................... 54 80 57 81 / 50 50 40 60
CAPULIN......................... 55 77 53 68 / 50 70 70 40
RATON........................... 56 83 55 73 / 50 60 60 50
SPRINGER........................ 57 85 54 75 / 50 60 60 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 82 53 74 / 50 50 60 50
CLAYTON......................... 61 85 57 75 / 50 60 60 20
ROY............................. 60 83 58 74 / 50 60 60 40
CONCHAS......................... 66 92 63 81 / 50 50 60 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 90 63 79 / 50 40 60 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 66 93 63 81 / 40 50 60 20
CLOVIS.......................... 62 90 61 80 / 40 40 60 20
PORTALES........................ 63 92 64 82 / 40 40 60 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 91 65 82 / 40 40 60 30
ROSWELL......................... 68 97 68 92 / 30 30 40 30
PICACHO......................... 62 86 63 83 / 40 40 40 40
ELK............................. 59 80 61 80 / 50 50 40 50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1135 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS FORECAST OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT AT KLVS AND KTCC WHERE MVFR CIGS IN LOW
STRATUS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
CONVECTION...BUT SHORT-LIVED IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. CURRENT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SLOW TO DIMINISH AND SUSPECT IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. KSAF IS TERMINAL MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED OVERNIGHT.
EAST CANYON/GAP WIND THE RESULT OF A MASSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
FORECAST TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH KSAF...KABQ AND KLVS
THE TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD REMAINS ON TAP THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE STATE. THE REPLENISHMENT OF MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR AN ACTIVE TUESDAY AREA WIDE. THEN YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD STORMS. CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTER MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. ON
THURSDAY...WESTERN AREAS WILL DRY OUT SOME...BUT EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WILL STILL REMAIN ACTIVE. STORM COVERAGE WILL LESSEN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE EVENING ON TAP TONIGHT. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT RACING
DOWN THE PLAINS OF COLORADO WILL SOON MOVE INTO NE NM. STORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT AND EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NM PLAINS AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH AND FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. SEVERAL
CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE LOCAL WRF SHOW
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT. A COMBINATION OF
THE FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM AS
WELL. BOTTOM LINE IS ANYWHERE MAY RECEIVE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THIS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.
THE MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY ON TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW MUCH THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WORKED OVER FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION...BUT EVEN
IF IT IS A LATER START TOMORROW...IT STILL IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
ACTIVE. MUCH LIKE TONIGHT...THE LOCAL WRF IS SHOWING CONVECTION
FIRST DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN AND NE NM...AND STEERING FLOW WILL
TAKE THE STORMS SOUTHWARD...AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/BUMPER CAR
EFFECT WILL ALLOW STORM COVERAGE TO EXPAND AS THEY HEAD SOUTH.
SHOULD ALSO SEE STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...BUT
OTHER FOCI FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO NE NM ON WEDNESDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES TOWARD NM IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND LIFT FROM THE FRONT PLUS
A REPLENISHMENT OF MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN YET
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND HIGH TERRAIN.
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT COULD BE ARGUED FOR ALMOST
ANYWHERE. IF WIDESPREAD STORMS OCCUR TONIGHT...THE GROUND WILL BE
PRIMED...AKA SOILS MAY BECOME SATURATED...SUCH THAT ADDITIONAL
STORMS TUES/WED MAY LEAD TO QUICKER RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING.
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY SQUEAK THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO GIVEN MODEST NW FLOW
ALOFT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO WESTERN NM ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE BACKED UP TO THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NUMEROUS STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
THURSDAY...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND SEWD. THUS...FLOODING WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN OVER EASTERN NM.
AS THE UPPER HIGH NUDGES NEAR AND OVER NM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...STORM COVERAGE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE. SOME RECYCLING
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR...THUS...A FEW STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STORMS
WILL BE OVER. THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN OVER NM OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THUS THE BIGGER STORY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
MAY BE THE HEAT AND POTENTIAL FOR TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE
EAST.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK. INITIAL HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH
WETTING RAIN CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
DRYING/WARMING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
STORM COVERAGE WILL INTENSIFY REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PUSHES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. WETTING RAIN WILL BE COMMONPLACE MOST AREAS WITH A LARGE
FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE LARGE AREAS OF
WETTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE.
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT FOCUS
MECHANISM FOR WETTING RAIN AND MOST LIKELY FAVOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGHER SIDE WEDNESDAY BUT LOWER
SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO TUESDAY MOST AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
FOR THE COLD FRONT BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING IT FOR THE PAST
WEEK. WHAT IS LESS CONFIDENT IS HOW FAR WEST THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING IT STALLING WITHIN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OR JUST TO THE WEST THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE STAGE IS SET FOR A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND THE
PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS RISING. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS PACIFIC TROUGH A STRONG MID
LEVEL DRY INTRUSION FOUND ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WOULD SINK SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SPOTTY
HAINES 6 VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BUT BECOME MORE APPARENT AND EXPAND DURING THE
WEEKEND. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WOULD LESSEN AND AFTERNOON READINGS
WOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WOULD TREND BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE FOOTPRINT OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD ALSO SHRINK CONSIDERABLY AND FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD. OUTFLOW/DOWNDRAFT WIND STRENGTHS WOULD INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRYING.
BREEZIEST CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOW
WINDS...APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST.
LONG RANGE MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
BUILDING AND INTENSIFYING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BACK OVER THE AREA
THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS HEAT PUMP SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE
QUITE SIGNIFICANT AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PAINTING THE STRONGEST
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OF THE YEAR THUS FAR FOR THIS PERIOD. WOULD HAVE TO
EXPECT HEAT WAVE LIKE TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS WITH
EVENTUALLY SOME RELIEF FROM A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT UNDERCUTTING THE
HIGH ACROSS THE EAST. WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE OPPRESSIVE RIDGE AND MOST LIKELY
DOMINANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT THAT COULD CHANGE SOME DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE HIGH CENTER. COULD RETURN BACK
TO LATE JUNE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...INCLUDING STRONG
OUTFLOWS/DOWNDRAFTS...ALTHOUGH FUEL MOISTURE VALUES HAVE RISEN QUITE
A BIT THANKS TO RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SO FIRE DANGER
LEVELS WOULD BE TEMPERED SOME.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1119 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF OUR REGION BY FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END TO THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS AXIS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS POOL OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH
WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE.
NEAR-TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RGEM SUGGEST THE WEAK LAKE
EFFECT WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTH OF TORONTO WEST ACROSS LAKE HURON AND
MICHIGAN DIPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. DESPITE LAKE CLOUDS
STILL EXPECT AREAS OF RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY IN THE DAY MAY PRODUCE
STRATO-CU FIELD AND CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND FROM
A LAKE SHADOW...HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES EAST OF OUR
REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS TOWARD NEW YORK EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STRAY CLOSE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER TO MID 50S
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.
RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 17 ARE AS FOLLOWS:
BUFFALO 52/1985
ROCHESTER 48/1892
WATERTOWN...44/1993
THESE RECORDS ARE PROBABLY SAFE...EXCEPT FOR BUFFALO WHERE IF SKIES
CAN CLEAR EARLY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THEN THE RECORD
LOW MAY BE IN JEOPARDY OF FALLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES SATURDAY WITH SOME DAYTIME CU AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
TIER MAY PREVENT VALLEY FOG FROM FORMING.
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY THEN NORMAL OR SLIGHT ABOVE FRIDAY NIGHT..DEPENDANT UPON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD AS MODELS
CONSENSUS IS STILL WEAK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER THAN THE
ECMWF HOWEVER NOW APPEARS TO BE TRENDING MORE TOWARD AN INVERTED
TROUGH SPREADING MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER ON SATURDAY
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH HANGING TOUGH OVER NEW YORK THOUGH POPS AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURE-WISE HIGH LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL READINGS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY THEN RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO WARM WITH TIME WITH READING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOUND OVER AND EAST OF
LAKE ERIE. THIS HAS BROUGHT MVFR CIGS TO KJHW. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE
WEAK LAKE EFFECT TO SHIFT TO SETTLE SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER AS A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS
AND VCSH AT KJHW. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SKC AFTER LINGERING DIURNAL
CLOUDS DISSIPATE. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL FORM IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
REDUCING VSBY TO 2-3SM IN SPOTS BUT NOT IMPACTING KJHW.
SCT-BKN DIURNAL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY WITH BASES 4K AND SCT -SHRA WILL
MAINLY BE FOUND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD EAST ON THURSDAY EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY THIN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE TRANQUIL...W 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...OTHER THAN VALLEY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAS PRODUCED SOME LAKE
EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS WHICH CONTINUES A CHANCE FOR A FEW
WATERSPOUTS ON LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. THE SZILAGYI WATERSPOUT
NOMOGRAM FORECAST SUGGESTS A SMALL CHANCE MAINLY ON LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AT WHICH TIME THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND COLD POOL WILL MAKE WATERSPOUT FORMATION UNLIKELY.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...LEVAN/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
806 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF OUR REGION BY FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END TO THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WITH ITS AXIS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
POOL OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT IS CONTINUING TO BRING
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE ONTARIO AND NIAGARA COUNTY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE
FINGER LAKES. DIRECTLY EAST OF THE LAKES A LAKE SHADOW OF MORE
STABLE AIR IS FOUND WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES.
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY AFTER SUNSET. NEAR-TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RGEM
SUGGEST A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS THIS EVENING SHIFTING
SOUTH FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTH OF TORONTO WEST ACROSS LAKE HURON AND
MICHIGAN DIPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH CLEARING SKIES
LATE OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STILL EXPECT AREAS OF RIVER
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY IN THE DAY MAY PRODUCE
STRATO-CU FIELD AND CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND FROM
A LAKE SHADOW...HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES EAST OF OUR
REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS TOWARD NEW YORK EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STRAY CLOSE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER TO MID 50S
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.
RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 17 ARE AS FOLLOWS:
BUFFALO 52/1985
ROCHESTER 48/1892
WATERTOWN...44/1993
THESE RECORDS ARE PROBABLY SAFE...EXCEPT FOR BUFFALO WHERE IF SKIES
CAN CLEAR EARLY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THEN THE RECORD
LOW MAY BE IN JEOPARDY OF FALLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES SATURDAY WITH SOME DAYTIME CU AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
TIER MAY PREVENT VALLEY FOG FROM FORMING.
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY THEN NORMAL OR SLIGHT ABOVE FRIDAY NIGHT..DEPENDANT UPON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD AS MODELS
CONSENSUS IS STILL WEAK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER THAN THE
ECMWF HOWEVER NOW APPEARS TO BE TRENDING MORE TOWARD AN INVERTED
TROUGH SPREADING MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER ON SATURDAY
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH HANGING TOUGH OVER NEW YORK THOUGH POPS AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURE-WISE HIGH LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL READINGS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY THEN RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO WARM WITH TIME WITH READING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DIURNAL CU WITH BASES 3-4K FT ARE BEGINNING TO THIN OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WILL
PASS NEAR KIAG THIS EVENING THEN MODELS SUGGESTING SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SHIFTING FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER SOUTH ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AS A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD.
RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL FORM IN THE SOUTHERN TIER REDUCING VSBY TO
2-3SM IN SPOTS BUT NOT IMPACTING KJHW.
SCT-BKN DIURNAL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY WITH BASES 4K AND SCT -SHRA WILL
MAINLY BE FOUND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD EAST ON THURSDAY EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY THIN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE TRANQUIL...W 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...OTHER THAN VALLEY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
INTO BUFFALO HARBOR AND UPPER NIAGARA RIVER FOR THIS EVENING SW
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING HAS PRODUCED SOME LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS WHICH
CONTINUES A CHANCE FOR A FEW WATERSPOUTS ON LAKE ERIE OR LAKE
ONTARIO. THE SZILAGYI WATERSPOUT NOMOGRAM FORECAST SUGGESTS A SMALL
CHANCE MAINLY ON LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS ON LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AT WHICH TIME THE DEPARTURE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD POOL WILL MAKE WATERSPOUT FORMATION
UNLIKELY.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
040-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...LEVAN/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
437 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK THIS
EVENING THEN INTO VERMONT OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN VERMONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY. A DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL RETURN LATER WEDNESDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 420 PM EDT TUESDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AROUND 1.5" AND THINK ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD PRODUCE THOSE AMOUNTS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CAPE AROUND 1000 AND PWATS AROUND 1.8"
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR AND HIRESARW DOING WELL
DEPICTING WHAT WE ALREADY SEE ON RADAR AND HAVE FOLLOWED FOR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BASICALLY EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF VERMONT BY 00-03Z. A
SECOND LINE IS POSSIBLE AS FRONT GETS CLOSER INTO OVERNIGHT. FROM
00-12Z MAINLY EXPECT PRECIP ACROSS VERMONT...FINALLY CLEARING
EASTWARD SOMETIME AFTER 12Z. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN WARM
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE AREA AS UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS KEEP VERMONT MAINTAINING
GOOD LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF
THUNDER AFTER 03Z WITH MOST INSTABILITY GONE AT THAT POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL START OUT
CLOUDY STILL ACROSS VERMONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR EASTERN VERMONT AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. HAVE TAPERED OFF PRECIP
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND LOW LEVEL RH
DECREASES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL...UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
10 MPH. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND DAMP GROUND WITH LIGHT WINDS COULD SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY FOG PRONE SPOTS. MIN TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH SOME 50S EXPECTED. THURSDAY WILL FEEL
MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. HAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH SOME MINOR INSTABILITY DUE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THU AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO WED NIGHT...MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HAVE SOME
VERY LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MODELS
INDICATE SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED AS WELL AS MOISTURE. EVENTUALLY WARMER AND INCREASINGLY
MORE HUMID AIR WILL ADVECT BACK INTO OUR CWA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS ERN
NY INTO THE CPV WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO
SRN VT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
SHOWERS. AS LINE OF SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MOVED E OF KMSS...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR...BUT LINGERING SHOWER COULD GIVE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
THIS AFTN.
IN THE CPV...SHOWERS MOVING INTO KPBG...WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS
EXPECTED IN THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN BTWN 18Z AND 20Z EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH.
KRUT WILL SEE SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE REACHES THIS SITE. THIS MEANS MORE PROLONGED
THREAT OF SHOWERS...WITH SOME SHOWERS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
AND A PSBL RUMBLE OF THUNDER. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
INSTABILITY...SO ONLY ISOLATED THREAT OF THUNDER EXPECTED.
KMPV WILL SEE SHOWERS PERSISTS INTO THE EVENING HRS AS COLD FRONT
PRODUCING THE SHOWERS LINGERS ACROSS ERN VT/WRN NH. AGAIN IFR
WITH SOME HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AT ALL SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT IN LINGER
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS ERN VT...WITH MVFR CIGS PSBL BEFORE
TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL BE
PSBL THURSDAY AFTN WITH BRIEF MVFR.
00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...MORNING
FOG/BR WL BE LIKELY ON FRI AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY...AT SLK/MPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...BUT FORTUNATELY
STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ALONG AND NOT PUTTING DOWN EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN ANY ONE LOCATION. RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
SHOWN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS PUTTING DOWN 3/4 TO ONE INCH IN ABOUT AN
HOUR IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST VERMONT. GUIDANCE SHOWING 1.5
INCH OR MORE IN AN HOUR NEEDED FOR FLASH FLOODING AND NOT HITTING
THAT THRESHOLD YET. MAIN DANGER IS TO LOOK OUT FOR AREAS HIT
REPEATEDLY BY PASSING STORMS. HI RESOLUTION MODELS TRENDING TOWARD
A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION/RAINFALL LATER ON WITH THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT, AND WILL NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF AREAS THAT HAVE
PREVIOUSLY RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ028-030-031-034-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
112 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
AGAIN NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO THE 18 UTC OBSERVED TRENDS
WITH THIS UPDATE WITH ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
THE QUIET...DRY AND COOL FORECAST FOR TODAY IS SUPPORTED BY THE
06 UTC SUITE AND 12-13 UTC RAP ITERATIONS WITH NO CHANGES
REQUIRED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATION FROM
RUGBY HAD THEM AT AROUND 1/2 MILE. OTHER THAN ALSO ADJUSTING
CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR CURRENT TRENDS...REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS RESULTS IN
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME OBSERVATION
SITES HAVE COME IN WITH SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES...BUT
GENERALLY P6SM MOST LOCATIONS. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FOG
MENTION.
A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW WELL TO OUR EAST AND WITH SOME WEAK MID
LEVEL RETURN FLOW. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 70S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
ALL GUIDANCE INDICATING CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
MID TO LATE MORNING SO WENT WITH HIGHER SKY COVER FOR THESE
LOCATIONS...PARTLY SUNNY. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WEST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
WEST WITH DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...REGION WILL BE BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING
QUIET WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RIDGE TO THE WEST STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT
LEADING TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM AT THIS
POINT IS THAT MODELS ARE LIFTING SOME KEY FEATURES A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH WOULD LEAN TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST. HAVE STARTED THE TREND TOWARDS LOWER POPS...AND WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THIS CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
VFR CUMULUS FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND FADE WITH SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18
UTC TAF CYCLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
950 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
THE QUIET...DRY AND COOL FORECAST FOR TODAY IS SUPPORTED BY THE
06 UTC SUITE AND 12-13 UTC RAP ITERATIONS WITH NO CHANGES
REQUIRED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATION FROM
RUGBY HAD THEM AT AROUND 1/2 MILE. OTHER THAN ALSO ADJUSTING
CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR CURRENT TRENDS...REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS RESULTS IN
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME OBSERVATION
SITES HAVE COME IN WITH SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES...BUT
GENERALLY P6SM MOST LOCATIONS. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FOG
MENTION.
A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW WELL TO OUR EAST AND WITH SOME WEAK MID
LEVEL RETURN FLOW. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 70S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
ALL GUIDANCE INDICATING CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
MID TO LATE MORNING SO WENT WITH HIGHER SKY COVER FOR THESE
LOCATIONS...PARTLY SUNNY. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WEST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
WEST WITH DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...REGION WILL BE BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING
QUIET WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RIDGE TO THE WEST STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT
LEADING TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM AT THIS
POINT IS THAT MODELS ARE LIFTING SOME KEY FEATURES A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH WOULD LEAN TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST. HAVE STARTED THE TREND TOWARDS LOWER POPS...AND WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THIS CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE VFR
SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPMENT CENTRAL AND EAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR WEST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
224 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST CLEARING THE WAY FOR COOLER
DRIER DAYS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE WANDERS ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH WV...FIRING UP A LINE
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT THAT HAVE STRUGGLED TO EVEN PRODUCE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE HRRR HAS HAD A RESONABLE HANDLE ON THIS
PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE DAY SO USED IT TO GAUGE THE TIMING OF THE
LINE.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
SKIES BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
FOR MOST. KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR TODAY
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN KEEPING AWAY MOST OF THE SUN UNTIL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOMORROW...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE AS THERE WAS VARIATION FROM LOW 80S TO LOW
70S. CALMER WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES SHOULD KEEP US A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AND THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
KEEP US COOLER THAN THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE WEAK FLOW...MOIST GROUND...AND CLEARING SKIES...CAN CERTAINLY
EXPECT SOME FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS.
EXPECTING IT TO STAY MOSTLY DRY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS TOMORROW EVENING FOR THOSE IN SE OH AS A VORT MAX
MAKES ITS WAY AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL...NO WHOLESALE CHANGES WERE MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. UPPER
CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTH WITH AXIS EXTENDING S/SW-WARD STILL
LOCATED OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AT 00Z THU WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST WED
EVE AND WED NIGHT...WITH AFOREMENTIONED S/W AXIS PROGGED TO BE
LOCATED JUST NE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THU. AM SOMEWHAT
SKEPTICAL OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWEST WED EVE WITH MEAGER LLVL
MOISTURE...PWATS UNDER AN INCH...AND NO APPARENT SFC OR BL FEATURE
TO ACT AS A TRIGGERING MECH. NONETHELESS...WILL KEEP INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS AS
OPERATIONALLY I CAN/T SAY IT WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTIVE SHOWER TO DEVELOP BEFORE LOSING THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
BUT AS PREV SHIFT MENTIONED...THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY WED EVE OR PERHAPS SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE AT WORST. WILL
BUMP UP SKY COVER JUST A TAD WITH SOME INDICATION OF PERHAPS SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT COVERAGE STILL PROBABLY NOT QUITE
ENOUGH AND LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT OVERNIGHT MINS AS THE S/W AXIS
CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH LESS CLOUD COVER TOWARDS THE DAWN HOURS. THU
MORNING SHOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THIS COOL SNAP...WITH MINS
GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 40S IN THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. EVEN HAVE SOME LOW 40S CODED UP FOR THE USUAL
COOL SPOTS OF RANDOLPH/POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.
THURSDAY WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY. ENOUGH OF A PINCH OF MOISTURE REMAINS
AROUND 850MB TO RESULT IN SOME FLAT-CU UNDERNEATH STABLE CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AT 800MB...STILL ALL IN ALL SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
FOR ALL. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARGING MAX TEMPS...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE AT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER
FLOW BACKS TO SW AS A POTENT S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER/MID
MISS VALLEY. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING THE USUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND PARTICULARLY INTO FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE WHOLE WILL BE AROUND 5-7 DEGREES WARMER
VERSUS WED NIGHT WITH READING MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF THE S/W TROUGH TO OUR SW
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY. 925MB AND
850MB TEMPS WOULD INDICATE WARMER MAX TEMP POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY BUT
THINKING THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM FULL HEATING
POTENTIAL...STILL EXPECTING TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AS WELL BY AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
PARTICULARLY HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES
AND ALONG THE EAST/SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS BY THE 21Z FRI-00Z SAT
TIME FRAME. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO RAMP UP WITH THE CAP
AROUND 700MB SO HAVE LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AND THEN REMAIN NEARBY THOUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST THROUGH WV TODAY. AS THEY CROSS...WE SHOULD EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW SITES DROPPING BRIEFLY TO IFR IN THE
HEAVIEST RAIN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST WITH MOST SITES
BOUNCING QUICKLY BACK TO MVFR.
THE FRONT IS NOT FAR BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SCATTER OUT BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOLER DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT...WEAK
FLOW...AND MOIST GROUND FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEFINITLY BE AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE IN THE VALLEYS. THIS COULD DROP
PREDAWN CONDITIONS TO IFR AT SOME LOCATIONS. THE FOG AND STRATUS
SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING LEAVING US WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE MAY BE MORE FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
ANY IFR FOG / STRATUS BURNING OFF FIRST THING WED MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED THU MORNING GIVEN LITTLE OR NO
CLOUD OR WIND.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/50/LS
NEAR TERM...LS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
157 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST CLEARING THE WAY FOR
COOLER DRIER DAYS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE WANDERS ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH WV...FIRING UP A LINE
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT THAT HAVE STRUGGLED TO EVEN PRODUCE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE HRRR HAS HAD A RESONABLE HANDLE ON THIS
PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE DAY SO USED IT TO GAUGE THE TIMING OF THE
LINE.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
SKIES BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
FOR MOST. KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR TODAY
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN KEEPING AWAY MOST OF THE SUN UNTIL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOMORROW...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE AS THERE WAS VARIATION FROM LOW 80S TO LOW
70S. CALMER WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES SHOULD KEEP US A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AND THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
KEEP US COOLER THAN THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE WEAK FLOW...MOIST GROUND...AND CLEARING SKIES...CAN CERTAINLY
EXPECT SOME FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS.
EXPECTING IT TO STAY MOSTLY DRY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS TOMORROW EVENING FOR THOSE IN SE OH AS A VORT MAX
MAKES ITS WAY AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE AREA WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER
IN STORE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO AS A VORT MAX ROUNDS TROUGH...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY. UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH INCREASING
HEAT AND HUMIDITY...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS
THE WEEKEND AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AND THEN REMAIN NEARBY THOUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST THROUGH WV TODAY. AS THEY CROSS...WE SHOULD EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW SITES DROPPING BRIEFLY TO IFR IN THE
HEAVIEST RAIN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST WITH MOST SITES
BOUNCING QUICKLY BACK TO MVFR.
THE FRONT IS NOT FAR BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SCATTER OUT BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOLER DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT...WEAK
FLOW...AND MOIST GROUND FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEFINITLY BE AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE IN THE VALLEYS. THIS COULD DROP
PREDAWN CONDITIONS TO IFR AT SOME LOCATIONS. THE FOG AND STRATUS
SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING LEAVING US WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE MAY BE MORE FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
ANY IFR FOG / STRATUS BURNING OFF FIRST THING WED MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED THU MORNING GIVEN LITTLE OR NO
CLOUD OR WIND.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LS
NEAR TERM...LS
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
641 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER LAKE HURON WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ITS SOUTHWARD
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN PA THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
635 PM UPDATE...
KILLED IT. LIGHT ANVIL RAIN/VIRGA SEEN ON THE RADAR WAS THE LAST
STRAW. WILL LEAVE IN CHC SHRA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS IN THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...THE DRY AIR IS THROUGH FIG/BFD/JST...BUT JUST ARRIVING
IN UNV/AOO.
6 PM UPDATE...
ANTICIPATE DROPPING SVR423 SOON. AM LEARY OF DROPPING IT RIGHT
NOW - STILL HAVE ANOTHER HR OR SO BEFORE THE FINAL GOOD PUSH GETS
THROUGH LANCASTER CO. AFTER A FLARE UP OF STRONGER CONVECTION
CLOSE TO THE GOOD FORCING AND IN MORE-SUNNY AREAS OVER NRN
PA...THE LAST LINE OF SHOWERS SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN WEAKENED TO THE
POINT OF USELESSNESS BY THE CLOUDS/COOLING/STABILIZATION SPREADING
ONCE AGAIN OVER CTP/S SERN COS.
EARLIER...
SFC COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KELM...SSW TO KFIG AND KJST
AT 1830Z. HI RES VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUICK CLEARING
BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH JUST SCTD FLAT TO MDT CU TO THE WEST OF THE
RT 219 CORRIDOR.
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WARM AND SOUPY AIR WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCATTERED TSRA WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS
AS THEY MOVE INTO AN AREA OF HIGH MU CAPE EXCEEDING 2000
J/KG...AND A POOL OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE.
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASING INTENSITY TREND OF THE
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS
AND TWD THE SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH PWATS...COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE CAPE...IMPLY THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
AND ADJACENT SERN PA. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF TSRA TO MOVE QUICKLY NE ACROSS
YORK...LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES THROUGH 23Z...WITH LOCALIZED
2-3 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN OUR CURRENT FFG VALUES...THE SLOW/STEADY EWD PROGRESS OF
TSRA LINE SEGMENTS ON THE HIGH RES MODELS...AND THE ANTICIPATED
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL TSRA...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR LIKELY THAT FCST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRESENT A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE THIS
AFTN...AND THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 22-24Z.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE L-M70S
OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES....TO THE U70S AND L80S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN A LITTLE /UNTIL AFTER 06Z/ AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR SE COUNTIES AND BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE MEAN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WELL INTO THE NIGHT DOWN
THERE. ELSEWHERE...THE WELCOME ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING GENERALLY SCT HIGH BASED STRATO
CU OR ALTO CU TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES DURING THE
EVENING.
MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE WED WILL BE IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
CENTRAL ZONES...AND LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR OUT TO THE ENE AND BECOME LOCATED OVER
SRN QUEBEC BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WED.
THE TRAILING MID-UPPER LVL THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES INCREASING TO AROUND 6C/KM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GRT LKS AND NOSE INTO OUR WRN ZONES LATE. THE COOL AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AMT OF CU
ACROSS THE NW MTNS WED...WITH A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF MORNING/MIDDAY SUNSHINE WITH MIX WITH SOME
MDT CU ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY.
THE LARGEST NEGATIVE 925/850 TEMPS ANOMALIES IN GEFS DATA ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE M/U60S
EXPECTED. READINGS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR 80F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL RETREAT INTO NORTHEASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MASS FIELDS LOOK VERY
SIMILAR AMONG ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE DRAGGING A LINGERING UPPER LVL TROF THAT
IS JUST WEST OF PA...EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOC NEG PWAT ANOMALIES SHOULD INITIALLY PROVIDE
CENTRAL PA WITH A PERIOD OF FAIR WX THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHC OF
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME DISPARITY ON THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE OUTPUT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SO HAVE
BACKED UP SLIGHTLY ON POPS...BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN AFTN
AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA. AFTER A COOL MIDWEEK...MEAN TEMPS SHOULD
CREEP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DUE TO WARMER
NIGHTS.
A FAIR AMT OF CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGHS BLW NORMAL. POPS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST
LOOKS UNSETTLED...WITH CENTRAL PA REMAINING ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
UPPER TROF WITH DAILY OPPORTUNITY/S FOR SHOWERS/TSRA. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR THE LONG TERM IS HOW THE TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
INTO NEXT WEEK. A STRONG 600 (DAM) HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION.
850MB TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE 14C RANGE AND
POSSIBLE INCREASING INTO THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A WARMER PERIOD...AND WITH ZONAL FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER KEEPING STORMS FROM GETTING GOING IN
THE MDT/LNS AREA. OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST EAST OF IPT.
THESE LIFTING NE. MOST OF THE AREA NOW VFR. COLD FRONT STILL
TO THE WEST. ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL PERSIST FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH 22Z ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY /INVOF KIPT/...AND THROUGH
00Z-02Z WED IN THE KMDT AND KLNS AREAS AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT.
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
VFR TO THE WEST OF THE CFRONT /ALONG A KBFD...TO KJST LINE/ WILL
ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR WILL COVER MUCH OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY BY 02-04Z WED.
OUTLOOK...
WED- FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSS AFTERNOON TSRA WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
622 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER LAKE HURON WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ITS SOUTHWARD
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN PA THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
6 PM UPDATE...
ANTICIPATE DROPPING SVR423 SOON. AM LEARY OF DROPPING IT RIGHT
NOW - STILL HAVE ANOTHER HR OR SO BEFORE THE FINAL GOOD PUSH GETS
THROUGH LANCASTER CO. AFTER A FLARE UP OF STRONGER CONVECTION
CLOSE TO THE GOOD FORCING AND IN MORE-SUNNY AREAS OVER NRN
PA...THE LAST LINE OF SHOWERS SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN WEAKENED TO THE
POINT OF USELESSNESS BY THE CLOUDS/COOLING/STABILIZATION SPREADING
ONCE AGAIN OVER CTP/S SERN COS.
EARLIER...
SFC COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KELM...SSW TO KFIG AND KJST
AT 1830Z. HI RES VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUICK CLEARING
BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH JUST SCTD FLAT TO MDT CU TO THE WEST OF THE
RT 219 CORRIDOR.
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WARM AND SOUPY AIR WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCATTERED TSRA WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS
AS THEY MOVE INTO AN AREA OF HIGH MU CAPE EXCEEDING 2000
J/KG...AND A POOL OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE.
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASING INTENSITY TREND OF THE
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS
AND TWD THE SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH PWATS...COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE CAPE...IMPLY THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
AND ADJACENT SERN PA. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF TSRA TO MOVE QUICKLY NE ACROSS
YORK...LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES THROUGH 23Z...WITH LOCALIZED
2-3 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN OUR CURRENT FFG VALUES...THE SLOW/STEADY EWD PROGRESS OF
TSRA LINE SEGMENTS ON THE HIGH RES MODELS...AND THE ANTICIPATED
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL TSRA...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR LIKELY THAT FCST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRESENT A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE THIS
AFTN...AND THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 22-24Z.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE L-M70S
OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES....TO THE U70S AND L80S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN A LITTLE /UNTIL AFTER 06Z/ AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR SE COUNTIES AND BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE MEAN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WELL INTO THE NIGHT DOWN
THERE. ELSEWHERE...THE WELCOME ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING GENERALLY SCT HIGH BASED STRATO
CU OR ALTO CU TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES DURING THE
EVENING.
MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE WED WILL BE IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
CENTRAL ZONES...AND LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR OUT TO THE ENE AND BECOME LOCATED OVER
SRN QUEBEC BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WED.
THE TRAILING MID-UPPER LVL THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES INCREASING TO AROUND 6C/KM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GRT LKS AND NOSE INTO OUR WRN ZONES LATE. THE COOL AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AMT OF CU
ACROSS THE NW MTNS WED...WITH A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF MORNING/MIDDAY SUNSHINE WITH MIX WITH SOME
MDT CU ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY.
THE LARGEST NEGATIVE 925/850 TEMPS ANOMALIES IN GEFS DATA ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE M/U60S
EXPECTED. READINGS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR 80F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL RETREAT INTO NORTHEASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MASS FIELDS LOOK VERY
SIMILAR AMONG ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE DRAGGING A LINGERING UPPER LVL TROF THAT
IS JUST WEST OF PA...EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOC NEG PWAT ANOMALIES SHOULD INITIALLY PROVIDE
CENTRAL PA WITH A PERIOD OF FAIR WX THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHC OF
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME DISPARITY ON THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE OUTPUT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SO HAVE
BACKED UP SLIGHTLY ON POPS...BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN AFTN
AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA. AFTER A COOL MIDWEEK...MEAN TEMPS SHOULD
CREEP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DUE TO WARMER
NIGHTS.
A FAIR AMT OF CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGHS BLW NORMAL. POPS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST
LOOKS UNSETTLED...WITH CENTRAL PA REMAINING ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
UPPER TROF WITH DAILY OPPORTUNITY/S FOR SHOWERS/TSRA. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR THE LONG TERM IS HOW THE TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
INTO NEXT WEEK. A STRONG 600 (DAM) HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION.
850MB TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE 14C RANGE AND
POSSIBLE INCREASING INTO THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A WARMER PERIOD...AND WITH ZONAL FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER KEEPING STORMS FROM GETTING GOING IN
THE MDT/LNS AREA. OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST EAST OF IPT.
THESE LIFTING NE. MOST OF THE AREA NOW VFR. COLD FRONT STILL
TO THE WEST. ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL PERSIST FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH 22Z ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY /INVOF KIPT/...AND THROUGH
00Z-02Z WED IN THE KMDT AND KLNS AREAS AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT.
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
VFR TO THE WEST OF THE CFRONT /ALONG A KBFD...TO KJST LINE/ WILL
ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR WILL COVER MUCH OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY BY 02-04Z WED.
OUTLOOK...
WED- FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSS AFTERNOON TSRA WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
529 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER LAKE HURON WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ITS SOUTHWARD
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN PA THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KELM...SSW TO KFIG AND KJST
AT 1830Z. HI RES VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUICK CLEARING
BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH JUST SCTD FLAT TO MDT CU TO THE WEST OF THE
RT 219 CORRIDOR.
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WARM AND SOUPY AIR WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCATTERED TSRA WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS
AS THEY MOVE INTO AN AREA OF HIGH MU CAPE EXCEEDING 2000
J/KG...AND A POOL OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE.
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASING INTENSITY TREND OF THE
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS
AND TWD THE SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH PWATS...COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE CAPE...IMPLY THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
AND ADJACENT SERN PA. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF TSRA TO MOVE QUICKLY NE ACROSS
YORK...LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES THROUGH 23Z...WITH LOCALIZED
2-3 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN OUR CURRENT FFG VALUES...THE SLOW/STEADY EWD PROGRESS OF
TSRA LINE SEGMENTS ON THE HIGH RES MODELS...AND THE ANTICIPATED
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL TSRA...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR LIKELY THAT FCST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRESENT A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE THIS
AFTN...AND THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 22-24Z.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE L-M70S
OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES....TO THE U70S AND L80S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN A LITTLE /UNTIL AFTER 06Z/ AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR SE COUNTIES AND BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE MEAN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WELL INTO THE NIGHT DOWN
THERE. ELSEWHERE...THE WELCOME ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING GENERALLY SCT HIGH BASED STRATO
CU OR ALTO CU TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES DURING THE
EVENING.
MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE WED WILL BE IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
CENTRAL ZONES...AND LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR OUT TO THE ENE AND BECOME LOCATED OVER
SRN QUEBEC BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WED.
THE TRAILING MID-UPPER LVL THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES INCREASING TO AROUND 6C/KM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GRT LKS AND NOSE INTO OUR WRN ZONES LATE. THE COOL AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AMT OF CU
ACROSS THE NW MTNS WED...WITH A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF MORNING/MIDDAY SUNSHINE WITH MIX WITH SOME
MDT CU ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY.
THE LARGEST NEGATIVE 925/850 TEMPS ANOMALIES IN GEFS DATA ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE M/U60S
EXPECTED. READINGS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR 80F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL RETREAT INTO NORTHEASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MASS FIELDS LOOK VERY
SIMILAR AMONG ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE DRAGGING A LINGERING UPPER LVL TROF THAT
IS JUST WEST OF PA...EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOC NEG PWAT ANOMALIES SHOULD INITIALLY PROVIDE
CENTRAL PA WITH A PERIOD OF FAIR WX THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHC OF
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME DISPARITY ON THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE OUTPUT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SO HAVE
BACKED UP SLIGHTLY ON POPS...BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN AFTN
AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA. AFTER A COOL MIDWEEK...MEAN TEMPS SHOULD
CREEP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DUE TO WARMER
NIGHTS.
A FAIR AMT OF CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGHS BLW NORMAL. POPS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST
LOOKS UNSETTLED...WITH CENTRAL PA REMAINING ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
UPPER TROF WITH DAILY OPPORTUNITY/S FOR SHOWERS/TSRA. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR THE LONG TERM IS HOW THE TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
INTO NEXT WEEK. A STRONG 600 (DAM) HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION.
850MB TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE 14C RANGE AND
POSSIBLE INCREASING INTO THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A WARMER PERIOD...AND WITH ZONAL FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER KEEPING STORMS FROM GETTING GOING IN
THE MDT/LNS AREA. OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST EAST OF IPT.
THESE LIFTING NE. MOST OF THE AREA NOW VFR. COLD FRONT STILL
TO THE WEST. ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL PERSIST FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH 22Z ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY /INVOF KIPT/...AND THROUGH
00Z-02Z WED IN THE KMDT AND KLNS AREAS AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT.
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
VFR TO THE WEST OF THE CFRONT /ALONG A KBFD...TO KJST LINE/ WILL
ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR WILL COVER MUCH OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY BY 02-04Z WED.
OUTLOOK...
WED- FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSS AFTERNOON TSRA WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
421 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER LAKE HURON WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ITS SOUTHWARD
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN PA THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KELM...SSW TO KFIG AND KJST
AT 1830Z. HI RES VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUICK CLEARING
BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH JUST SCTD FLAT TO MDT CU TO THE WEST OF THE
RT 219 CORRIDOR.
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WARM AND SOUPY AIR WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCATTERED TSRA WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS
AS THEY MOVE INTO AN AREA OF HIGH MU CAPE EXCEEDING 2000
J/KG...AND A POOL OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE.
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASING INTENSITY TREND OF THE
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS
AND TWD THE SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH PWATS...COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE CAPE...IMPLY THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
AND ADJACENT SERN PA. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF TSRA TO MOVE QUICKLY NE ACROSS
YORK...LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES THROUGH 23Z...WITH LOCALIZED
2-3 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN OUR CURRENT FFG VALUES...THE SLOW/STEADY EWD PROGRESS OF
TSRA LINE SEGMENTS ON THE HIGH RES MODELS...AND THE ANTICIPATED
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL TSRA...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR LIKELY THAT FCST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRESENT A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE THIS
AFTN...AND THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 22-24Z.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE L-M70S
OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES....TO THE U70S AND L80S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN A LITTLE /UNTIL AFTER 06Z/ AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR SE COUNTIES AND BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE MEAN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WELL INTO THE NIGHT DOWN
THERE. ELSEWHERE...THE WELCOME ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING GENERALLY SCT HIGH BASED STRATO
CU OR ALTO CU TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES DURING THE
EVENING.
MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE WED WILL BE IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
CENTRAL ZONES...AND LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR OUT TO THE ENE AND BECOME LOCATED OVER
SRN QUEBEC BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WED.
THE TRAILING MID-UPPER LVL THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES INCREASING TO AROUND 6C/KM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GRT LKS AND NOSE INTO OUR WRN ZONES LATE. THE COOL AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AMT OF CU
ACROSS THE NW MTNS WED...WITH A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF MORNING/MIDDAY SUNSHINE WITH MIX WITH SOME
MDT CU ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY.
THE LARGEST NEGATIVE 925/850 TEMPS ANOMALIES IN GEFS DATA ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE M/U60S
EXPECTED. READINGS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR 80F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL RETREAT INTO NORTHEASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MASS FIELDS LOOK VERY
SIMILAR AMONG ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE DRAGGING A LINGERING UPPER LVL TROF THAT
IS JUST WEST OF PA...EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOC NEG PWAT ANOMALIES SHOULD INITIALLY PROVIDE
CENTRAL PA WITH A PERIOD OF FAIR WX THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHC OF
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME DISPARITY ON THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE OUTPUT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SO HAVE
BACKED UP SLIGHTLY ON POPS...BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN AFTN
AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA. AFTER A COOL MIDWEEK...MEAN TEMPS SHOULD
CREEP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DUE TO WARMER
NIGHTS.
A FAIR AMT OF CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGHS BLW NORMAL. POPS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST
LOOKS UNSETTLED...WITH CENTRAL PA REMAINING ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
UPPER TROF WITH DAILY OPPORTUNITY/S FOR SHOWERS/TSRA. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR THE LONG TERM IS HOW THE TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
INTO NEXT WEEK. A STRONG 600 (DAM) HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION.
850MB TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE 14C RANGE AND
POSSIBLE INCREASING INTO THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A WARMER PERIOD...AND WITH ZONAL FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL PERSIST FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH 22Z ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY /INVOF KIPT/...AND THROUGH
00Z-02Z WED IN THE KMDT AND KLNS AREAS AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT.
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
VFR TO THE WEST OF THE CFRONT /ALONG A KBFD...TO KJST LINE/ WILL
ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR WILL COVER MUCH OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY BY 02-04Z WED.
OUTLOOK...
WED- FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSS AFTERNOON TSRA WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
312 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER LAKE HURON WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ITS SOUTHWARD
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN PA THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KELM...SSW TO KFIG AND KJST
AT 1830Z. HI RES VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUICK CLEARING
BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH JUST SCTD FLAT TO MDT CU TO THE WEST OF THE
RT 219 CORRIDOR.
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WARM AND SOUPY AIR WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCATTERED TSRA WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS
AS THEY MOVE INTO AN AREA OF HIGH MU CAPE EXCEEDING 2000
J/KG...AND A POOL OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE.
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASING INTENSITY TREND OF THE
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS
AND TWD THE SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH PWATS...COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE CAPE...IMPLY THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
AND ADJACENT SERN PA. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF TSRA TO MOVE QUICKLY NE ACROSS
YORK...LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES THROUGH 23Z...WITH LOCALIZED
2-3 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN OUR CURRENT FFG VALUES...THE SLOW/STEADY EWD PROGRESS OF
TSRA LINE SEGMENTS ON THE HIGH RES MODELS...AND THE ANTICIPATED
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL TSRA...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR LIKELY THAT FCST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRESENT A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE THIS
AFTN...AND THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 22-24Z.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE L-M70S
OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES....TO THE U70S AND L80S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN A LITTLE /UNTIL AFTER 06Z/ AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR SE COUNTIES AND BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE MEAN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WELL INTO THE NIGHT DOWN
THERE. ELSEWHERE...THE WELCOME ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING GENERALLY SCT HIGH BASED STARTO
CU OR ALTO CU TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES DURING THE
EVENING.
MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE WED WILL BE IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
CENTRAL ZONES...AND LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR OUT TO THE ENE AND BECOME LOCATED OVER
SRN QUEBEC BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WED.
THE TRAILING MID-UPPER LVL THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES INCREASING TO AROUND 6C/KM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GRT LKS AND NOSE INTO OUR WRN ZONES LATE. THE COOL AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AMT OF CU
ACROSS THE NW MTNS WED...WITH A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF MORNING/MIDDAY SUNSHINE WITH MIX WITH SOME
MDT CU ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY.
THE LARGEST NEGATIVE 925/850 TEMPS ANOMALIES IN GEFS DATA ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE M/U60S
EXPECTED. READINGS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR 80F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MASS FIELDS LOOK VERY SIMILAR AMONG ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...ALL OF WHICH SHOW A LINGERING UPPER LVL TROF
JUST WEST OF PA OVR THE GRT LKS. SFC ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOC NEG
PWAT ANOMALIES SHOULD INITIALLY PROVIDE CENTRAL PA WITH A PERIOD
OF FAIR WX THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS HIGH DRIFTS
OFF THE COAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE CHC OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. BASED ON LATEST
CONSALL GUIDANCE...HAVE INTRODUCED THE CHC OF AFTN SHRA/TSRA
FRIDAY AFTN.
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST LOOKS UNSETTLED...AS CENTRAL PA WILL
REMAIN ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER TROF WITH DAILY OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS/TSRA. AFTER A COOL MIDWEEK...MEAN TEMPS SHOULD CREEP BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DUE TO WARMER NIGHTS. A
FAIR AMT OF CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGHS BLW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL PERSIST FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH 22Z ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY /INVOF KIPT/...AND THROUGH
00Z-02Z WED IN THE KMDT AND KLNS AREAS AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT.
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
VFR TO THE WEST OF THE CFRONT /ALONG A KBFD...TO KJST LINE/ WILL
ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR WILL COVER MUCH OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY BY 02-04Z WED.
OUTLOOK...
WED- FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSS AFTERNOON TSRA WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1149 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY USHERING IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP/REGIONAL 88D DATA AT 1530Z SHOWS
WIDESPREAD LAYERED CLOUDS BLANKETING ALL OF THE REGION WITHIN THE
WEAK LOW-MID LVL WARM ADVECTION AND SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM KELZ TO KDUJ AND KLBE.
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY INCREASING VIA THE LIMITED
HEATING THROUGH THE CLOUDS...BUT REMAINS QUITE WEAK AT THIS
POINT ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT TO MDT SHRA DRIFTING TO THE NE. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS
WERE DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG THE CFRONT ATTM.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND TWD THE SUSQ
VALLEY DURING THE EARLY TO MD AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC BASED CAPES
VIA THE 09Z SREF ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
INVOF KMDT...KLNS AND KTHV.
A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR BRKS OF SUN EXIST ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES... WHERE SPC HAS PLACED A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX THIS
AFTN. STRONG MID LVL WINDS AND ASSOC 0-6KM SHEAR COULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STRONG STORMS GIVEN ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING. HIGH
PWATS...COMBINED WITH MODERATE CAPE...IMPLY THE POTENTIAL OF
LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS SE PA. CONVECTION-ALLOWING HIRES MDLS
SHOW THIS POTENTIAL...WITH LOCALLY 2-3 INCH AMTS INDICATED FROM
LANCASTER CO SEWRD.
GIVEN OUR CURRENT FFG VALUES...THE SLOW/STEADY EWD PROGRESS OF
TSRA LINE SEGMENTS ON THE HIGH RES MODELS...AND THE ANTICIPATED
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL TSRA...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR LIKELY THAT FCST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRESENT A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN MTNS THIS AFTN.
HIGHS TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
ALLEGHENIES. FURTHER EAST...A LATER ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT AND
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY PUSH READINGS INTO THE L/M 80S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER 06Z TO CLEAR THE SE
COUNTIES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WELL INTO THE
NIGHT DOWN THERE. ELSEWHERE...ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD
FRONT SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
ALLEGHENIES DURING THE EVENING.
UPPER LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...TRAILING UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE EASTERN GRT LKS. ASSOC POOL OF COOL AIR ALOFT...COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AMT OF CU ACROSS THE NW
MTNS WED...WITH A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE IS INDICATED BY MDL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. LARGEST NEGATIVE 925/850 TEMPS ANOMALIES IN GEFS DATA
ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE
M/U60S EXPECTED. READINGS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL
ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MASS FIELDS LOOK VERY SIMILAR AMONG ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...ALL OF WHICH SHOW A LINGERING UPPER LVL TROF
JUST WEST OF PA OVR THE GRT LKS. SFC ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOC NEG
PWAT ANOMALIES SHOULD INITIALLY PROVIDE CENTRAL PA WITH A PERIOD
OF FAIR WX THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS HIGH DRIFTS
OFF THE COAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE CHC OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. BASED ON LATEST
CONSALL GUIDANCE...HAVE INTRODUCED THE CHC OF AFTN SHRA/TSRA
FRIDAY AFTN.
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST LOOKS UNSETTLED...AS CENTRAL PA WILL
REMAIN ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER TROF WITH DAILY OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS/TSRA. AFTER A COOL MIDWEEK...MEAN TEMPS SHOULD CREEP BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DUE TO WARMER NIGHTS. A
FAIR AMT OF CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGHS BLW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA /AND A
FEW LOW TOPPED TSRA/ DRIFTING NE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT /THAT
EXTENDS FROM SWRN NEW YORK TO SWRN PENN.
AREAS OF MVFR IN STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG/HAZE WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AT MOST TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF IPT-KUNV-KAOO LINE...LEADING TO SCATTERED TSTM
IMPACTS /ESPECIALLY INVOF KMDT AND KLNS WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 18Z-23Z PERIOD/.
OUTLOOK...
WED- FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSS AFTERNOON TSRA WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
954 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY USHERING IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP/REGIONAL 88D DATA SHOWS WIDESPREAD LAYERED
CLOUDS IN THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN PENN.
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL AT THIS POINT ACROSS CENTRAL
PENN AND THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MDT SHRA
DRIFTING TO THE NE.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE CFRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND TWD THE SUSQ
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SFC BASED CAPES VIA THE 09Z
SREF ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG INVOF
KMDT...KLNS AND KTHV.
A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR BRKS OF SUN ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...
WHERE SPC HAS PLACED A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX THIS AFTN. STRONG
MID LVL WINDS AND ASSOC 0-6KM SHEAR COULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONG
STORMS GIVEN ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING. HIGH PWATS...COMBINED WITH
MODERATE CAPE...IMPLY THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS
ACROSS SE PA. CONVECTION-ALLOWING HIRES MDLS SHOW THIS
POTENTIAL...WITH LOCALLY 2-3 INCH AMTS INDICATED FROM LANCASTER CO
SEWRD.
GIVEN OUR CURRENT FFG VALUES...THE SLOW/STEADY EWD PROGRESS OF
TSRA LINE SEGMENTS ON THE HIGH RES MODELS...AND THE ANTICIPATED
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL TSRA...DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR SHOULD BRING A
DIMINISHING CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS THIS AFTN.
HIGHS TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
ALLEGHENIES. FURTHER EAST...A LATER ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT AND
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY PUSH READINGS INTO THE L/M 80S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER 06Z TO CLEAR THE SE
COUNTIES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WELL INTO THE
NIGHT DOWN THERE. ELSEWHERE...ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD
FRONT SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
ALLEGHENIES DURING THE EVENING.
UPPER LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...TRAILING UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE EASTERN GRT LKS. ASSOC POOL OF COOL AIR ALOFT...COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AMT OF CU ACROSS THE NW
MTNS WED...WITH A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE IS INDICATED BY MDL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. LARGEST NEGATIVE 925/850 TEMPS ANOMALIES IN GEFS DATA
ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE
M/U60S EXPECTED. READINGS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL
ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MASS FIELDS LOOK VERY SIMILAR AMONG ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...ALL OF WHICH SHOW A LINGERING UPPER LVL TROF
JUST WEST OF PA OVR THE GRT LKS. SFC ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOC NEG
PWAT ANOMALIES SHOULD INITIALLY PROVIDE CENTRAL PA WITH A PERIOD
OF FAIR WX THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS HIGH DRIFTS
OFF THE COAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE CHC OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. BASED ON LATEST
CONSALL GUIDANCE...HAVE INTRODUCED THE CHC OF AFTN SHRA/TSRA
FRIDAY AFTN.
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST LOOKS UNSETTLED...AS CENTRAL PA WILL
REMAIN ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER TROF WITH DAILY OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS/TSRA. AFTER A COOL MIDWEEK...MEAN TEMPS SHOULD CREEP BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DUE TO WARMER NIGHTS. A
FAIR AMT OF CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGHS BLW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA /AND A
FEW LOW TOPPED TSRA/ DRIFTING NE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR THE
I-79 CORRIDOR IN FAR WRN PENN.
AREAS OF IFR/MVFR IN FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
TAF SITES LATE MORNING...THOUGH ONE OR TWO MAY HANG ONTO HAZE TIL
EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF IPT-KUNV-KAOO LINE...LEADING TO SCATTERED TSTM
IMPACTS /ESPECIALLY INVOF KMDT AND KLNS WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 17Z-23Z PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WED- FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSS AFTERNOON TSRA WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
956 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER...OTHER STORMS ARE BETWEEN CHILDRESS AND GRAHAM...
WITH AN ADDITIONAL COMPLEX OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT EXTENDS FROM OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO
NORTH OF JUNCTION WILL COMTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS
GOOD. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 635 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/
CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE IMPACTS/TIMING/DURATION...MVFR CIGS/VIS...
CONVECTIVE GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN CORES NEXT 24-30 HOURS.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTHEAST
TO NEAR KBPT AT 16/23Z. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THIS FORECAST AS IT MOVES
NORTH TONIGHT AND SETTLES ALONG THE RED RIVER ON THURSDAY. A STOUT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE AN MCS UPSTREAM ON THURSDAY THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY EVENING. ALL-IN-ALL
...THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION DURING THE
FORECAST WITH THURSDAY/S CONVECTIVE EVENT PROBABLY RESULTING IN
THE HIGHEST IMPACTS ON AIRPORT OPERATIONS.
WILL KEEP VFR GOING OVERNIGHT THEN MVFR CIGS/VIS ON THURSDAY.
THE TIMING OF CONVECTION WAS DETERMINED BY A TTU-WRF...HRRR AND
NAM12 COMBINATION. THIS PLACES SOME SHRA/TSRA AROUND KACT BY 03Z
AND NEAR THE METROPLEX BY 07Z. ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA EVENT WILL BE
ON THURSDAY MORNING AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT LATER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID THURSDAY EVENING. 75
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/
MODELS STRUGGLED TODAY AND UNDERESTIMATED THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH 18Z FORECAST DEW POINTS GENERALLY 3-7 DEGREES BELOW
THE METARS. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM JACKSBORO TO GRANBURY TO
CORSICANA. STORMS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE BETTER PRECIP STILL TO COME THURSDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE DOES CONVERGE ON HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM ONE OR MORE MCS
OR MCS SEGMENTS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP
THAT WE ARE EXPECTING. THERE MAY BE HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWEST INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY THAT MAY SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY AS WELL. HRRR HINTS AT THIS BUT TTU
WRF DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK.
THE SECOND ROUND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...ALSO IN THE FORM OF SOME SORT OF MCS OR QLCS. THESE
STORMS WILL BE AIDED BY A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE AND A PUSH FROM
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.
PRECIP WILL SHUT DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TO OUR WEST.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN THE EAST AND HAVE LEFT THE
20 POPS THERE. CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. THERE MAY HAVE TO BE LOW POPS ADDED NEAR MID WEEK FOR A
POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT THERE IS NO CONSENSUS ON IT YET. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 74 88 73 87 73 / 70 80 80 50 10
WACO, TX 75 89 75 88 72 / 30 60 80 50 20
PARIS, TX 67 83 69 83 70 / 40 90 90 60 20
DENTON, TX 73 85 71 86 71 / 70 90 90 50 10
MCKINNEY, TX 71 86 72 86 70 / 60 90 90 50 10
DALLAS, TX 74 88 73 87 73 / 70 80 80 50 20
TERRELL, TX 72 89 73 88 71 / 50 80 90 60 20
CORSICANA, TX 73 89 73 86 72 / 30 60 80 50 20
TEMPLE, TX 74 89 75 86 73 / 20 50 60 50 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 86 70 85 70 / 80 80 80 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ091>095-101>107-117>123.
&&
$$
75/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
635 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE IMPACTS/TIMING/DURATION...MVFR CIGS/VIS...
CONVECTIVE GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN CORES NEXT 24-30 HOURS.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTHEAST
TO NEAR KBPT AT 16/23Z. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THIS FORECAST AS IT MOVES
NORTH TONIGHT AND SETTLES ALONG THE RED RIVER ON THURSDAY. A STOUT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE AN MCS UPSTREAM ON THURSDAY THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY EVENING. ALL-IN-ALL
...THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION DURING THE
FORECAST WITH THURSDAY/S CONVECTIVE EVENT PROBABLY RESULTING IN
THE HIGHEST IMPACTS ON AIRPORT OPERATIONS.
WILL KEEP VFR GOING OVERNIGHT THEN MVFR CIGS/VIS ON THURSDAY.
THE TIMING OF CONVECTION WAS DETERMINED BY A TTU-WRF...HRRR AND
NAM12 COMBINATION. THIS PLACES SOME SHRA/TSRA AROUND KACT BY 03Z
AND NEAR THE METROPLEX BY 07Z. ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA EVENT WILL BE
ON THURSDAY MORNING AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT LATER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID THURSDAY EVENING. 75
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/
MODELS STRUGGLED TODAY AND UNDERESTIMATED THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH 18Z FORECAST DEW POINTS GENERALLY 3-7 DEGREES BELOW
THE METARS. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM JACKSBORO TO GRANBURY TO
CORSICANA. STORMS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE BETTER PRECIP STILL TO COME THURSDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE DOES CONVERGE ON HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM ONE OR MORE MCS
OR MCS SEGMENTS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP
THAT WE ARE EXPECTING. THERE MAY BE HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWEST INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY THAT MAY SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY AS WELL. HRRR HINTS AT THIS BUT TTU
WRF DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK.
THE SECOND ROUND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...ALSO IN THE FORM OF SOME SORT OF MCS OR QLCS. THESE
STORMS WILL BE AIDED BY A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE AND A PUSH FROM
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.
PRECIP WILL SHUT DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TO OUR WEST.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN THE EAST AND HAVE LEFT THE
20 POPS THERE. CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. THERE MAY HAVE TO BE LOW POPS ADDED NEAR MID WEEK FOR A
POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT THERE IS NO CONSENSUS ON IT YET. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 75 88 73 87 73 / 70 80 80 50 10
WACO, TX 75 89 75 88 72 / 30 60 80 50 20
PARIS, TX 67 83 69 83 70 / 40 90 90 60 20
DENTON, TX 73 85 71 86 71 / 70 90 90 50 10
MCKINNEY, TX 71 86 72 86 70 / 60 90 90 50 10
DALLAS, TX 74 88 73 87 73 / 70 80 80 50 20
TERRELL, TX 72 89 73 88 71 / 50 80 90 60 20
CORSICANA, TX 73 89 73 86 72 / 30 60 80 50 20
TEMPLE, TX 74 89 75 86 73 / 20 50 60 50 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 86 70 85 70 / 80 80 80 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ091>095-101>107-117>123.
&&
$$
75/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1239 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD.
THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE EARLY MORNING FROPA WILL BE
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE TO VEER OVERNIGHT. BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW...WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KTS. CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KACT BUT THE LIKELIHOOD WAS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY...BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014/
THE LONG-AWAITED COLD FRONT WAS MOVING TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURING FROM OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES INTO
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD BE SEEN UPSTREAM
WITH READINGS IN THE 50S AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
THE COLD FRONT SLOWS DOWN LATER THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HRRR AND TECH WRF INDICATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT 20-40 POPS
SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE-PALESTINE LINE. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH STRONGER COLD ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE LOW RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE A LULL IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE. LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 65-70 DEGREES WITHIN THE
DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 70-75 DEGREES ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH LIGHT ENE WINDS 5-10 MPH. SHOULD BE A NICE EVENING FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR TRANSITION DAY AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF
OUR NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO WILL HELP SURGE THE FIRST FRONT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER-
MID 90S OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO
THE WARM ADVECTION. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE
DAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WILL CARRY
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE RESULTANT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY THOSE AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. AN MCS IS HIGHLY PROBABLE WITH SOME THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
ENTER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ADDING A LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO
THE EQUATION. WE ARE MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. WE HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY
MCS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WITH STORMS CONTINUING DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF BOTH THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT. THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUING HIGH
CHANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE 5
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW MID JULY NORMALS WITH HIGHS 75-85 DEGREES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD DUE TO
THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES OR LOCALLY HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST YOU
GO. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT APPEARS DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH A LOWER THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALOFT NEAR 6 DEG/C.
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH DAMPENS THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH A
WEAKER TROUGH SETTLED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER WEST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN
WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF A WEAKNESS SETTING UP OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR ISOLATED
RAIN CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES TO ADD RAIN CHANCES IN AT THIS TIME. WHAT WE ARE
CERTAIN OF IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 90S BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 70 90 73 84 / 20 10 10 70 70
WACO, TX 93 71 94 75 90 / 20 20 10 50 50
PARIS, TX 86 65 86 67 79 / 10 10 5 70 80
DENTON, TX 90 69 89 72 83 / 10 10 20 70 70
MCKINNEY, TX 89 69 89 72 82 / 10 10 10 70 70
DALLAS, TX 90 70 90 73 84 / 20 10 10 70 70
TERRELL, TX 89 68 89 71 84 / 20 10 10 70 70
CORSICANA, TX 90 70 90 73 87 / 20 10 10 60 60
TEMPLE, TX 94 73 94 75 92 / 30 30 10 40 40
MINERAL WELLS, TX 90 68 90 72 86 / 20 10 20 70 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
706 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT THAT BEGAN TO SLIDE INTO OUR AREA LATE YESTERDAY
HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE DFW METRO TAF SITES AS OF 12Z THIS
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AT KACT AS WELL DUE TO A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH...BUT FROPA SHOULD OCCUR THERE WITHIN A FEW HOURS.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 10
AND 15 KTS TODAY BUT SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TOWARDS THE EAST AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 8 KTS BY MID MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR KACT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY. BY 15Z...ALL AREA TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
QUIET WEATHER. WHILE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONVECTION
PERIODICALLY THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD...CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIES JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014/
THE LONG-AWAITED COLD FRONT WAS MOVING TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURING FROM OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES INTO
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD BE SEEN UPSTREAM
WITH READINGS IN THE 50S AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
THE COLD FRONT SLOWS DOWN LATER THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HRRR AND TECH WRF INDICATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT 20-40 POPS
SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE-PALESTINE LINE. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH STRONGER COLD ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE LOW RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE A LULL IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE. LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 65-70 DEGREES WITHIN THE
DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 70-75 DEGREES ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH LIGHT ENE WINDS 5-10 MPH. SHOULD BE A NICE EVENING FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR TRANSITION DAY AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF
OUR NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO WILL HELP SURGE THE FIRST FRONT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER-
MID 90S OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO
THE WARM ADVECTION. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE
DAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WILL CARRY
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE RESULTANT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY THOSE AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. AN MCS IS HIGHLY PROBABLE WITH SOME THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
ENTER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ADDING A LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO
THE EQUATION. WE ARE MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. WE HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY
MCS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WITH STORMS CONTINUING DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF BOTH THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT. THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUING HIGH
CHANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE 5
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW MID JULY NORMALS WITH HIGHS 75-85 DEGREES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD DUE TO
THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES OR LOCALLY HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST YOU
GO. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT APPEARS DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH A LOWER THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALOFT NEAR 6 DEG/C.
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH DAMPENS THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH A
WEAKER TROUGH SETTLED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER WEST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN
WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF A WEAKNESS SETTING UP OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR ISOLATED
RAIN CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES TO ADD RAIN CHANCES IN AT THIS TIME. WHAT WE ARE
CERTAIN OF IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 90S BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 70 90 73 84 / 20 5 30 70 70
WACO, TX 93 71 94 75 90 / 20 20 20 50 50
PARIS, TX 86 65 86 67 79 / 10 10 20 70 80
DENTON, TX 90 69 89 72 83 / 10 10 30 70 70
MCKINNEY, TX 89 69 89 72 82 / 10 5 30 70 70
DALLAS, TX 90 70 90 73 84 / 20 5 30 70 70
TERRELL, TX 89 68 89 71 84 / 20 5 20 70 70
CORSICANA, TX 90 70 90 73 87 / 20 10 20 60 60
TEMPLE, TX 94 73 94 75 92 / 30 20 20 40 40
MINERAL WELLS, TX 90 68 90 72 86 / 20 10 30 70 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
641 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
A WELL DEFINED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
SHRA/TSRA. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE TROUGH
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. THE RAP 13 HAS INITIALIZED BEST AND HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE RAP SOLUTION FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE. THE CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES WILL WEAKEN NORTH OF THE HOUSTON TERMINALS
BY NOON. DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN ALLOW THE SEABEEZE TO INCREASE
SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST AROUND 18Z...MOVING SLOWLY
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTN. PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2.00
INCHES THIS AFTN WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 88 DEGREES. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TIMING TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MIGHT
GET A LITTLE PATCHY FOG AT KCXO AROUND SUNRISE. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING
WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS PRE FRONTAL TROUGH THERE IS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENTERING HOUSTON COUNTY SHORTLY.
PWAT VALUES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1.8" AND ARE FORECASTED TO RISE
ABOVE 2.00" TODAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE RAIN IS LIMITED IN
OUR AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER MISSOURI. THERE
WILL BE SOME SMALL POCKETS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY MOVING OVERHEAD
BUT THIS WILL ALSO BE SPOTTY. CURRENTLY AT 250MB THERE IS UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THANKS TO THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
FROM YESTERDAY. MODELS FOR THE MOST PART WASH THIS FEATURE OUT
TODAY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. FIRST SOLUTION IS THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION NOW MOVING
INTO HOUSTON COUNTY CONTINUING TO FILL IN AND EVENTUALLY FIZZLING
OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE SECOND SOLUTIONS FIZZLES THE
RAIN OUT EARLIER ALLOWING A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS SOLUTION TWO AND SEEMED TO INITIALIZE WELL.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE FAVORED SOLUTION TWO.
ON WEDNESDAY MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS AS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
FALLS IN THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MOISTURE VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 1.8" THOUGH SO THINK SOME RAIN WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY (VIA DAYTIME HEATING). THURSDAY MORNING A
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARDS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN. PWATS AGAIN
APPROACH 2.0" AND WITH UPPER LEVEL LIFT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES WITH HEIGHTS AT
600DM BY TUESDAY. THIS MEANS HOT CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
23
MARINE...
A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR KSHV TO KDRT WILL SAG SLOWLY
SOUTH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA LATER
TODAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH
SOUTH AND STALL OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULTANT GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK AND WINDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME VARIABLE AND THE DIRECTION/SPEEDS INDUCED BY CONVECTION. A
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS ON
WED NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY. STRONGER
WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED NITE AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH
AN SCA OR CAUTION FLAGS PROBABLY NEEDED. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
WEST TEXAS EXITS THE REGION. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 92 74 95 76 94 / 40 20 20 20 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 75 94 76 93 / 40 20 30 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 81 91 81 91 / 40 20 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
346 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE LONG-AWAITED COLD FRONT WAS MOVING TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURING FROM OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES INTO
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD BE SEEN UPSTREAM
WITH READINGS IN THE 50S AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
THE COLD FRONT SLOWS DOWN LATER THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HRRR AND TECH WRF INDICATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT 20-40 POPS
SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE-PALESTINE LINE. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH STRONGER COLD ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE LOW RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE A LULL IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE. LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 65-70 DEGREES WITHIN THE
DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 70-75 DEGREES ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH LIGHT ENE WINDS 5-10 MPH. SHOULD BE A NICE EVENING FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR TRANSITION DAY AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF
OUR NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO WILL HELP SURGE THE FIRST FRONT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER-
MID 90S OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO
THE WARM ADVECTION. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE
DAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WILL CARRY
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE RESULTANT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY THOSE AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. AN MCS IS HIGHLY PROBABLE WITH SOME THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
ENTER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ADDING A LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO
THE EQUATION. WE ARE MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. WE HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY
MCS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WITH STORMS CONTINUING DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF BOTH THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT. THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUING HIGH
CHANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE 5
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW MID JULY NORMALS WITH HIGHS 75-85 DEGREES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD DUE TO
THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES OR LOCALLY HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST YOU
GO. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT APPEARS DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH A LOWER THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALOFT NEAR 6 DEG/C.
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH DAMPENS THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH A
WEAKER TROUGH SETTLED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER WEST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN
WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF A WEAKNESS SETTING UP OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR ISOLATED
RAIN CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES TO ADD RAIN CHANCES IN AT THIS TIME. WHAT WE ARE
CERTAIN OF IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 90S BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1121 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
AS CONVECTION GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END...A RARE JULY COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO APPROACH NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. AN EARLIER
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AT AREA TAF SITES WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY...LIKELY ORIGINATING FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION NEAR THE RED RIVER. WINDS HAVE SINCE BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT EASES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE POSITIONED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA...NOW SOUTH OF KOKC.
TIMING OF FROPA IN THE METROPLEX LOOKS TO BE AROUND 09Z...THEN
CLOSER TO SUNRISE AT KACT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN ISOLATED
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE BOUNDARY ARRIVES...BUT THE
PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECASTS AT THIS
TIME. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUIETER DAY THAN TODAY...WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE WEATHER ARRIVING LATE WEDNESDAY.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 70 90 73 84 / 20 5 30 70 70
WACO, TX 93 71 94 75 90 / 20 20 20 50 50
PARIS, TX 86 65 86 67 79 / 10 10 20 70 80
DENTON, TX 90 69 89 72 83 / 10 10 30 70 70
MCKINNEY, TX 89 69 89 72 82 / 10 5 30 70 70
DALLAS, TX 90 70 90 73 84 / 20 5 30 70 70
TERRELL, TX 89 68 89 71 84 / 20 5 20 70 70
CORSICANA, TX 90 70 90 73 87 / 20 10 20 60 60
TEMPLE, TX 94 73 94 75 92 / 30 20 20 40 40
MINERAL WELLS, TX 90 68 90 72 86 / 20 10 30 70 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1023 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC TO THE OHIO VALLEY. WISCONSIN
REMAINS ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS TROUGH...WITH COOLER AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS LEADING TO A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING SHOWED A CAP LOCATED AT 750MB WHICH
HAS PREVENTED ANY SHOWER FORMATION SO FAR DESPITE BUBBLY LOOKING
CU. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES AWAY AND TEMPS
MODERATE...CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN
THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE STATE OF
WISCONSIN. DIURNAL CU WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MID-EVENING WHICH
WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALONG
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PLUMMET INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS. WARMER LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY...A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR...BUT MODIFYING
SOUNDINGS YIELD LESS THAN 100 J/KG OF ML CAPE. PLUS...A CAP AROUND
650MB WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. SO THINKING SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CU FIELD AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL POP UP LATE
IN THE MORNING. BUT DO NOT SEE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO INTRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
MEAN FLOW THRU THE END OF THE WEEK TO BE MAINLY ZONAL WITH THE
MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES RUNNING ACROSS EXTREME SRN CANADA. A
STRONG UPR TROF IS THEN FCST TO DIG S-SE ALONG BC/PACIFIC NW NEXT
WEEK AND ALLOW A PROMINENT UPR HI OVER THE ROCKIES TO BUILD EWD
ACROS THE PLAINS. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE TO BE WHETHER THIS UPR HI
CAN BUILD TOWARD WI OR WL WEAK UPR TROFFINESS DEVELOP OVER THE
E-CNTRL CONUS BETWEEN THE UPR HI TO OUR WEST AND AN UPR HI OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS DIFFERENCE IN SCENARIOS WL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE NOT ONLY OUR PCPN CHCS FOR NEXT WEEK...BUT ALSO HOW WARM
WE CAN GET.
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WL DISSIPATE ANY REMAINING CU FIELD...
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NE WI THU NGT.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT (SW AT 10-15
KTS)...THUS ONE MORE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SHAPING
UP. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG OVER LOW-LYING
AREAS LATE AT NGT AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD THIS TO THE FCST.
FOR NOW...HAVE FOCUSED ON THE COOL TEMPS WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE LWR TO MID 50S NORTH...GENERALLY MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SOME OF THE
MDLS CONT TO TRY AND GENERATE LIGHT PCPN ACROSS PARTS OF WI ON
FRI. THIS APPEARS MAINLY DUE TO A FASTER INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE UPR 50S. THERE IS NO
DISCERNABLE SURFACE BOUNDARY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OR JET MAX
EVIDENT TO TRIGGER ANY PCPN...THUS LEAVING WEAK WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO CREATE PCPN. JUST DO NOT SEE ENUF TO WARRANT A CHANGE
TO A DRY FCST...THUS HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FCST WHEN IT
COMES TO PCPN. MAX TEMPS WL CONT TO SLOWLY WARM WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM 70-75 ALONG LAKE MI...75-80 DEGS OVER INLAND LOCALES.
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FRI EVENING UPON SUNSET AS
DAYTIME HEATING WANES. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP A BIT
BETWEEN HI PRES OVER THE NE CONUS AND A CDFNT SITUATED OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. THIS WL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS FAR AS PREVIOUS
NGTS AS MOST OF NE WI TO SETTLE INTO THE 55-60 DEG RANGE. MUCH
LIKE THU NGT...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND AS THE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. MEAN FLOW IS FCST TO BE NEARLY
ZONAL BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES
RUNNING FROM THE PACIFIC NW E-NE ACROSS SRN CANADA. ON SAT...THE
MDLS DO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING TOWARD NRN SECTIONS OF
THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE CDFNT TO HAVE ESSENTIALLY STALLED OVER
THE NRN PLAINS. MAIN DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF
TO PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH (WRN ONTARIO)...THUS DO NOT SEE ENUF
FORCING TO JUSTIFY A POP FOR SAT. WEAK WAA TO PERSIST...THEREBY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO CONT EDGING UPWARD INTO THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S...BUT COOLER LAKESIDE.
AS THE STRONG UPR TROF DIGS S-SE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THE DOWNSTREAM UPR HI TO EDGE EWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS
AND EXTEND NEWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. ANY WEAK MID-LEVEL
SYSTEMS EJECTING FROM THIS DIGGING UPR TROF SHOULD PASS WELL NW OF
NE WI...LEAVIG A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS
ON SUNDAY WL CREEP UP A BIT MORE WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE
LWR 80S...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MI.
THE FCST BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE UNCERTAIN THE FARTHER WE GET
INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE MDLS ARE DIFFERING ON THE EXTENT OF THE UPR
RDG AND AMOUNT OF UPR TROFFING OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
INITIALLY...THE MDLS DO AGREE THAT THE UPR RDG AXIS TO STILL BE
AIMED TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON MON...THEREFORE KEEPING ANY
TSTM COMPLEXES AWAY. HOWEVER...THE MDLS ARE TRENDING TOWARD
PULLING THE UPR RDG BACK TO THE WEST AND ALLOWING THE MEAN FLOW TO
BEGIN TURNING TO THE NW. THIS WOULD LEAVE NE WI MORE VULNERABLE TO
EITHER A CDFNT OR A SHORTWAVE TROF TO MOVE SE TOWARD THE AREA AND
WHEN COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING WARMTH/MOISTURE...THIS WOULD BRING
INCREASING CHCS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
12Z ECMWF NOW PULLS THE UPR RDG ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE ROCKIES
AND SENDS A CDFNT THRU WI ON TUE. SINCE THIS IS SUCH A CHANGE FROM
ITS PREVIOUS RUN...HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW WHICH
BRINGS 20-30 PERCENT POPS ON TUE AND 20-40 PERCENT POPS ON WED TO
THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH TUE
AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
A FEW PATCHES OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVG...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE APPROACHING FROM NE MN/
NW WI. THE MAIN FCST CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS A THREAT
OF PATCHY GROUND FOG...ESPECIALLY IN NC/C WI. WILL KEEP A TEMPO
GROUP WITH IFR VSBYS FOR THE RHI TAF SITE BETWEEN 07Z-11Z/THU. ANY
FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 12Z. SCT-BKN
CUMULUS SHOULD REFORM DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH
BASES MAINLY 5000-7000 FT AGL.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
633 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC TO THE OHIO VALLEY. WISCONSIN
REMAINS ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS TROUGH...WITH COOLER AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS LEADING TO A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING SHOWED A CAP LOCATED AT 750MB WHICH
HAS PREVENTED ANY SHOWER FORMATION SO FAR DESPITE BUBBLY LOOKING
CU. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES AWAY AND TEMPS
MODERATE...CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN
THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE STATE OF
WISCONSIN. DIURNAL CU WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MID-EVENING WHICH
WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALONG
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PLUMMET INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS. WARMER LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY...A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR...BUT MODIFYING
SOUNDINGS YIELD LESS THAN 100 J/KG OF ML CAPE. PLUS...A CAP AROUND
650MB WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. SO THINKING SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CU FIELD AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL POP UP LATE
IN THE MORNING. BUT DO NOT SEE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO INTRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
MEAN FLOW THRU THE END OF THE WEEK TO BE MAINLY ZONAL WITH THE
MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES RUNNING ACROSS EXTREME SRN CANADA. A
STRONG UPR TROF IS THEN FCST TO DIG S-SE ALONG BC/PACIFIC NW NEXT
WEEK AND ALLOW A PROMINENT UPR HI OVER THE ROCKIES TO BUILD EWD
ACROS THE PLAINS. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE TO BE WHETHER THIS UPR HI
CAN BUILD TOWARD WI OR WL WEAK UPR TROFFINESS DEVELOP OVER THE
E-CNTRL CONUS BETWEEN THE UPR HI TO OUR WEST AND AN UPR HI OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS DIFFERENCE IN SCENARIOS WL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE NOT ONLY OUR PCPN CHCS FOR NEXT WEEK...BUT ALSO HOW WARM
WE CAN GET.
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WL DISSIPATE ANY REMAINING CU FIELD...
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NE WI THU NGT.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT (SW AT 10-15
KTS)...THUS ONE MORE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SHAPING
UP. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG OVER LOW-LYING
AREAS LATE AT NGT AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD THIS TO THE FCST.
FOR NOW...HAVE FOCUSED ON THE COOL TEMPS WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE LWR TO MID 50S NORTH...GENERALLY MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SOME OF THE
MDLS CONT TO TRY AND GENERATE LIGHT PCPN ACROSS PARTS OF WI ON
FRI. THIS APPEARS MAINLY DUE TO A FASTER INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE UPR 50S. THERE IS NO
DISCERNABLE SURFACE BOUNDARY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OR JET MAX
EVIDENT TO TRIGGER ANY PCPN...THUS LEAVING WEAK WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO CREATE PCPN. JUST DO NOT SEE ENUF TO WARRANT A CHANGE
TO A DRY FCST...THUS HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FCST WHEN IT
COMES TO PCPN. MAX TEMPS WL CONT TO SLOWLY WARM WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM 70-75 ALONG LAKE MI...75-80 DEGS OVER INLAND LOCALES.
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FRI EVENING UPON SUNSET AS
DAYTIME HEATING WANES. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP A BIT
BETWEEN HI PRES OVER THE NE CONUS AND A CDFNT SITUATED OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. THIS WL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS FAR AS PREVIOUS
NGTS AS MOST OF NE WI TO SETTLE INTO THE 55-60 DEG RANGE. MUCH
LIKE THU NGT...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND AS THE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. MEAN FLOW IS FCST TO BE NEARLY
ZONAL BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES
RUNNING FROM THE PACIFIC NW E-NE ACROSS SRN CANADA. ON SAT...THE
MDLS DO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING TOWARD NRN SECTIONS OF
THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE CDFNT TO HAVE ESSENTIALLY STALLED OVER
THE NRN PLAINS. MAIN DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF
TO PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH (WRN ONTARIO)...THUS DO NOT SEE ENUF
FORCING TO JUSTIFY A POP FOR SAT. WEAK WAA TO PERSIST...THEREBY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO CONT EDGING UPWARD INTO THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S...BUT COOLER LAKESIDE.
AS THE STRONG UPR TROF DIGS S-SE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THE DOWNSTREAM UPR HI TO EDGE EWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS
AND EXTEND NEWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. ANY WEAK MID-LEVEL
SYSTEMS EJECTING FROM THIS DIGGING UPR TROF SHOULD PASS WELL NW OF
NE WI...LEAVIG A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS
ON SUNDAY WL CREEP UP A BIT MORE WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE
LWR 80S...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MI.
THE FCST BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE UNCERTAIN THE FARTHER WE GET
INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE MDLS ARE DIFFERING ON THE EXTENT OF THE UPR
RDG AND AMOUNT OF UPR TROFFING OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
INITIALLY...THE MDLS DO AGREE THAT THE UPR RDG AXIS TO STILL BE
AIMED TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON MON...THEREFORE KEEPING ANY
TSTM COMPLEXES AWAY. HOWEVER...THE MDLS ARE TRENDING TOWARD
PULLING THE UPR RDG BACK TO THE WEST AND ALLOWING THE MEAN FLOW TO
BEGIN TURNING TO THE NW. THIS WOULD LEAVE NE WI MORE VULNERABLE TO
EITHER A CDFNT OR A SHORTWAVE TROF TO MOVE SE TOWARD THE AREA AND
WHEN COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING WARMTH/MOISTURE...THIS WOULD BRING
INCREASING CHCS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
12Z ECMWF NOW PULLS THE UPR RDG ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE ROCKIES
AND SENDS A CDFNT THRU WI ON TUE. SINCE THIS IS SUCH A CHANGE FROM
ITS PREVIOUS RUN...HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW WHICH
BRINGS 20-30 PERCENT POPS ON TUE AND 20-40 PERCENT POPS ON WED TO
THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH TUE
AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
SCT-BKN HIGH-BASED ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A THREAT OF PATCHY GROUND FOG...
ESPECIALLY IN NC/C WI. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP WITH IFR VSBYS AT
THE RHI TAF SITE. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT
BY 12Z. SCT-BKN CUMULUS SHOULD REFORM DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH BASES MAINLY 5000-7000 FT AGL.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER LAKE HURON. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ARE SPINNING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...INCLUDING ONE WAVE THAT IS
DROPPING SOUTH OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WAUTOMA TO DOOR COUNTY. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
THE UPPER PENINSULA SO WILL DROP PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING UPSTREAM...DRIER AIR IS PUNCHING SOUTH OVER
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT CLOUD COVER
LOOKS ROBUST OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FORECAST
CONCERNS INCLUDE SHOWER AND CLOUD TRENDS IN THIS PERIOD.
TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION WILL DROP
SE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER PENINSULA. MUCH OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS BY
MID-EVENING. CLOUDS LOOK TO TAKE A BIT LONGER HOWEVER...DUE TO
CYCLONIC FLOW...THERMAL TROUGHING...AND NORTH WINDS ORIGINATING FROM
A MOISTURE RICH AREA OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS KEEP LOW CLOUDS AROUND OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING TREND OVER THE EAST
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLEARING SHOULD PUSH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING THOUGH AS DRY AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS LOST. THE COMBO OF CLEARING SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL BE WARMER DUE
TO CLOUDS AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DESPITE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND MODERATING LOW LEVEL TEMPS...LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD CU FIELD
TO FORM BY LATE IN THE MORNING. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER.
MID-LEVEL CAPPING SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS FROM FORMING THOUGH. HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MIDDLE 70S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES ZONAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE JET BUT NONE OF
THEM SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE FACT
THAT THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH HERE YESTERDAY HAS MADE IT
NEARLY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SHUTTING OFF THE
FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TRIES TO
EDGE IT/S WAY INTO WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS JUST ENOUGH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY BUT THERE MIGHT BE A CAP TO KEEP ANY
CONVECTION FROM GOING. THERE MIGHT BE A NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT BUT TOO FAR AWAY TO FORECAST RIGHT
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE
LOTS OF CLOUDS TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 2500 TO 3500 FEET WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ABOVE. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT
IF CLOUDS CLEAR QUICK ENOUGH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
242 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
AS OF 230 PM...MAIN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER LAKE
HURON...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED BY
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RAP 500 MB HEIGHTS.
PIECES OF ENERGY HAVE BEEN ROTATING THE PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH
TODAY...HELPING TO FUEL ALTOSTRATUS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S...ANOTHER FALL LIKE DAY FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD SLOWLY IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND THE THREAT FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG. SEVERAL POSITIVE
FACTORS GOING FOR THE VALLEY FOG:
1. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH LOWEST 1.5 KILOMETERS
2. RECENT WET CONDITIONS AND PEAK OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
3. COOLER...CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...BECOMING CLEAR THIS EVENING
4. FORECAST T/TD DEPRESSIONS AROUND 5F THIS EVENING
A FEW NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDE TIME OF YEAR /MID JULY NOT AS
FAVORABLE/ AS WELL SOME INDICATIONS THAT WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE MAY STAY ELEVATED AT AROUND 10 KTS. FINALLY...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS TODAY AND QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW QUICKLY WE
CLEAR OUT. REGARDLESS...FEEL THAT CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR A
MS AND WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY FOG EVENT...WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA. PLAN ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND A DRIER AIR MASS. MAX
READINGS LOOK TO BE 5 TO 10F BELOW NORMAL...OR IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AS IT
SLOWLY TRAVERSES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
ARE VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE...AND IN FACT THE
WIND FIELD IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE / LIGHT TO 700 MB /. WHILE THERE
WILL BE A DAY OF DRYING WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH
THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
A RIVER VALLEY FOG EVENT. INCREASED FOG COVERAGE ALONG THE MS AND
WISCONSIN RIVERS...AND THIS COULD BE A CLASSIC FOG EVENT WITH SOME
LONGER PERIODS OF DENSE FOG.
BY FRIDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND
THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW RESPONSE TO BEGIN. HIGHS WILL NUDGE
UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...APPROACHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY WEEKS END.
THE 15.12Z MODEL CYCLE FOLLOWED THE 15.00 GROUP TOWARD A
WARMER...DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS ALLOWS 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB...REACHING +12 TO
+16C...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST...BY THIS WEEKEND. EARLIER RUNS
THAT SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPPING THROUGH THE FLOW ARE NOW
GONE OR WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA...WITH JUST A WEAK
REFLECTION IN THE SURFACE OF A FRONT ATTEMPTING TO PASS BUT NEVER
MAKES IT TO THE AREA. WITH THE WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN LOOKING
MORE LIKELY...CONTINUED THE TREND OF REMOVING OR DIMINISHING
PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND NOW THE WEEKEND IS
DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES
AS WELL GIVEN MORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
ANOMALOUSLY COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MVFR/VFR
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS
THE REGION. LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS/SHOWERS TO ERODE/DISSIPATE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT FARTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD
ONTARIO CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT...SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MORE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FOR WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG TO OCCUR. RIVER VALLEY
AREAS INCLUDING KLSE TAF SITE LOOK MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AT THIS POINT.
CONFIDENCE OF FOG OCCURRING DIRECTLY AT THE KLSE AIRPORT IS
MEDIUM. TRICKY PART WILL BE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND WEAK
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. THIS MAY MITIGATE FOG FORMATION SOME. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON IFR/LIFR POTENTIAL AT KLSE. WILL
PASS THIS CONCERN TO THE EVENING FORECASTER TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR
THE ISSUANCE OF THE 00/06Z TAFS. KRST LOOKS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
RECORD COOL HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY/TONIGHT AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
FOR LA CROSSE...
TODAY....FORECAST HIGH 71. RECORD 68 IN 1962
TONIGHT...FORECAST LOW 51. RECORD 49 IN 1912
FOR ROCHESTER...
TODAY....FORECAST HIGH 67. RECORD 67 IN 1962
TONIGHT...FORECAST LOW 50. RECORD 44 IN 1933
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION.....DAS
CLIMATE......AJ/RRS/ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
327 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS...-SHRA CHANCES CENTERED ON THIS AFTERNOON...
VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT...COOL TEMPERATURES.
WELCOME TO THE MIDDLE OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER. IT SURE DOES NOT
FEEL LIKE IT EARLY THIS MORNING ON THIS 15TH OF JULY...WITH TEMPS
ACROSS ALL OF MN/IA/WI IN THE LOW-MID 50S...SOME 10-15F BELOW
NORMAL. DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR DETROIT
AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS FROM SASKAT TO KS. MUCH OF
MN/ IA/WI UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO. WV/IR IMAGERY
SHOWED THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WEST OF KGRB EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. ONE OF THESE NOW OVER
FAR SOUTHWEST WI RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BAND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA THAT
MOVED THRU MUCH OF THE FCST AREA MON EVENING. IR/WV IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWED A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF THE EASTERN WI MID LEVEL
LOW...PIVOTING SOUTHWEST FROM EASTERN ONT TO WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND
INTO NORTHWEST WI.
INITIALIZATIONS OF 15.00Z MODELS LOOK GOOD...BUT FOR GFS BEING ABOUT
5F TOO HIGH ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MODELS OFFER A RATHER TIGHT CONSENSUS TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN WI MOVES EAST TODAY THEN LIFTS INTO WESTERN
QUEBEC TONIGHT...WITH MN/WI/IA REMAINING UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TREND FAVORS SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH ECMWF AGAIN
SHOWING THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. SHORT TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE WITH COOL/GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
IN THE SHORT TERM...SEVERAL THINGS GOING FOR WIDELY SCT -SHRA ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA AGAIN TODAY. BAND OF MOISTURE OVER LK SUPERIOR
TO EASTERN ONT TO PIVOT SOUTHWEST INTO THE EAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS AS ONE MORE VORT LOBE IS PROGGED TO
ROTATE AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ACROSS THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 0.75
INCH IN THIS SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME
WEAK MUCAPE...GENERALLY LESS THAN 200 J/KG...OVER THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AND THE FCST AREA REMAINS ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500-
300MB JET AXIS. THUS CONTINUED THE 20 PERCENT -SHRA CHANCES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA MUCH OF TODAY...DECREASING FROM THE WEST AND
NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE FORCING/LIFT
MOVE EAST/SOUTH AND DRIER 850-700MB AIR MOVES IN.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WED MORNING. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS THE LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC AND THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN
MN/IA. DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT AND DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE WEAKER GRADIENT.
WITH DEW POINTS TONIGHT PROGGED TO START OUT IN THE 50-55F RANGE AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...RADIATIONAL FOG APPEARS LIKELY IN
THE FAVORED...DECOUPLED LOW LAYING AREAS/RIVER VALLEYS. PREVIOUS
SHIFT ADDED FOG MENTION TO THE MS/WI RIVER VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT AND
THIS LOOKS GOOD. ADDED FOG MENTION TO THE CENTRAL WI LOW LAYING
AREAS ALONG/ NORTHEAST OF I-94. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS
FOR TODAY THEN LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT
WITH THE LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MAIN CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VALLEY FOG
POTENTIAL LATE WED NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE 15.00Z MODELS FOR THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES LOW/TOUGH TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST WED/WED NIGHT.
TIGHTENING CONSENSUS FOR SOME FORM OF A SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING WEST
OF HUDSONS BAY TO DROP TOWARD THE FCST AREA THU THEN ACROSS THE AREA
THU NIGHT. EVEN AS THIS WAVE DROPS IN THU/THU NIGHT HGTS SLOWLY RISE
AS THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND ENERGY FLATTENS THE WESTERN
NOAM RIDGING. GIVEN THE DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS...FCST CONFIDENCE IN
THE WED THRU THU NIGHT PERIOD REMAINS GOOD.
WED THRU THU NIGHT CONTINUES TO SHAPE UP AS A DRY/QUIET PERIOD WITH
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH LIFTS OUT
AND HGTS SLOWLY RISE. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT WITH A LIGHT/WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. FAVORABLE
SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A DRIER COLUMN ALOFT FOR MDT/STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEW POINTS WED NIGHT START OUT IN THE 50-55F RANGE... WITH
LOWS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS LATE
WED NIGHT TO BE LESS THAN 10KTS TO NEARLY 700MB...A FAVORABLE SIGNAL
FOR VALLEY FOG FORMATION. ADDED FOG MENTION TO THE SAME AREAS AS
TONIGHT IN THE 06Z-13Z THU PERIOD.
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FOR THU POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A -SHRA CHANCE
CENTERED ON THU AFTERNOON. SFC-500MB WINDS REMAIN QUITE LIGHT THU
WITH MINIMAL LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT SEEN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME SMALL CAPE THU
AFTERNOON...EITHER VERY SKINNY TO 500MB OR CAPPED BELOW 700MB.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE THU AFTERNOON BUT
WILL LEAVE THU GRIDS DRY FOR NOW. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIP EAST
THU NIGHT WITH A BIT MORE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. WITH
THE DEEP LAYERED VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT LATE THU NIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING/BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING...MAY YET NEED
TO ADD LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG MENTION TO THE GRIDS FOR THE 06Z-13Z
FRI PERIOD. WILL LEAVE THIS OUT FOR NOW PENDING HOW MUCH FOG
DEVELOPS THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT...THOUGH DID FAVOR COOLER
OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR WED NIGHT.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...OR NOT...SAT
NIGHT TROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
DECENT CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS FOR HGTS TO CONTINUE TO RISE FRI WITH
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS BY LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT.
REASONABLE BETWEEN MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR HGTS TO RISE/RIDGING TO
BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM LATE SAT INTO MON. HOWEVER THIS RESULTS IN
RATHER POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE SAT THRU MON PERIOD. FCST
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO GOOD FRI/SAT THEN AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE
SUN/MON.
FRI/SAT CONTINUE TO TREND DRY WITH DRIER SFC HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION AND HGTS ALOFT SLOWLY RISING. 925-
850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM WITH HIGHS FRI/SAT REACHING
CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. TREND/CONSENSUS OF 15.00Z MODELS BUILDS
MID LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS SAT NIGHT INTO MON.
THIS SHUNTS SHORTWAVES COMING OUT OF TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST
WELL WEST/NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE STRONGER FLUX OF MOISTURE
INCREASE/INSTABILITY AXIS IS WEST/NORTH OF THE FCST AREA AS WELL.
700MB WARMING MAY ALSO CAP THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SUN/MON.
THUS PER COLLABORATION WITH MANY OF THE NEIGHBORS...REDUCED OR
REMOVED MUCH OF THE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FROM SAT NIGHT INTO MON.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU MON GENERALLY
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGING/DRYING TREND FOR SAT
THRU MON CONTINUES...HIGHS IN THE FCST GRIDS THESE DAYS MAY BE A
CATEGORY TOO COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE CLOUDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR TO SCATTERED CONDITIONS NOW OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...BUT THESE SEEM TO BE DISSIPATING AS THEY ROTATE SOUTH AND
APPROACH THE AREA. BOTH THE 15.00Z NAM AND 15.03Z RAP SOUNDINGS
WOULD SUGGEST THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO SCATTERED OVERNIGHT SO
HAVE GONE THAT ROUTE. WITH JUST A LITTLE BIT OF HEATING TUESDAY
MORNING SHOULD SEE RAPID REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CLOUDS WITH VFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING ALONG WITH SOME MORE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS MONDAY.
THE NAM TRIES TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
MOISTURE IS LIKELY TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
AIRPORTS AND ALSO HAVE ONLY SOME WEAK OR NO VERTICAL MOTION. HAVE
OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AND NOT INCLUDE ANY VCSH. THE
CLOUDS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
RECORD COOL HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY/TONIGHT AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
FOR LA CROSSE...
TODAY....FORECAST HIGH 71. RECORD 68 IN 1962
TONIGHT...FORECAST LOW 51. RECORD 49 IN 1912
FOR ROCHESTER...
TODAY....FORECAST HIGH 67. RECORD 67 IN 1962
TONIGHT...FORECAST LOW 50. RECORD 44 IN 1933
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....04
CLIMATE......AJ/RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1144 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...SHOWER
CHANCES TUESDAY...AND VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS OF 3 PM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RAP 500 MB HEIGHTS
SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVING INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE STRONG COOLING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE DAYTIME
HEATING WAS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.
TEMPERATURES WERE HELD IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH A STEADY NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH. CERTAINLY THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOME
AREAS TODAY HAS THE LOOK AND FEEL MORE TYPICAL OF OCTOBER
14...NOT JULY 14.
QUICK PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY THIS EVENING AND
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW ANY LINGERING SHOWERS /
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SMALL CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH RESIDES CLOSER TO THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR LARGE STRATUS DECK
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...THAT IS PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GFS/NAM RH FIELDS SHOW THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. DESPITE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES OF -1 TO -2...AND THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MASS / +4 TO
+6C / OVERHEAD...SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER IS
LIKELY TO KEEP READINGS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. PLAN ON LOWS TO VARY A
FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 50.
FOR TUESDAY...LITTLE MODERATION IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP
THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER CONTINUING. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY MOVES INTO MICHIGAN...AND AT THE SURFACE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. COULD
NOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER ALONG AND EAST OF MS RIVER AS
SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED CUMULUS BY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS MORE FAVORABLE. USED BIAS-
CORRECTED GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS COOLER READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SOME OF THE MORE RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
VARY FROM LOW/MID 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS...TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.
INTRODUCED PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MS AND WISCONSIN RIVERS...GIVEN
ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR MASS...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 3 TO 3.5 KM AS
SEEN FROM NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND RECENT WET CONDITIONS.
WHILE MID JULY IS NOT THE FAVORED TIME FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG...FEEL
THAT THE MORE PRONE AREAS ALONG THE MS AND WISCONSIN RIVERS WILL
SEE SOME FOG.
BENIGN WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH MAIN WEATHER FEATURE BEING
THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. PLAN ON SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EACH DAY...LIGHT WINDS...AND A DRIER AIR MASS. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...AND LOWS IN THE
50S. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE 14.12Z GUIDANCE BEGIN BY
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE GFS SWINGS THIS FEATURE THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...MOISTURE TRANSPORT RETURN IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE AND THERE IS A LACK OF INSTABILITY AS WELL. CONSENSUS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY LOOK GOOD AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVER BY THE WEEKEND...THOUGH STILL
REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...OR IN THE LOW
80S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE CLOUDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR TO SCATTERED CONDITIONS NOW
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. STILL PLENTY OF
CLOUDS UPSTREAM...BUT THESE SEEM TO BE DISSIPATING AS THEY ROTATE
SOUTH AND APPROACH THE AREA. BOTH THE 15.00Z NAM AND 15.03Z RAP
SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO SCATTERED
OVERNIGHT SO HAVE GONE THAT ROUTE. WITH JUST A LITTLE BIT OF
HEATING TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE RAPID REDEVELOPMENT OF THE
CLOUDS WITH VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING ALONG WITH SOME
MORE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH AS MONDAY. THE NAM TRIES TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
HOWEVER...THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE IS LIKELY TOO SHALLOW TO
SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE AIRPORTS AND ALSO HAVE ONLY SOME WEAK
OR NO VERTICAL MOTION. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
AND NOT INCLUDE ANY VCSH. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
FOR LA CROSSE...
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 70. RECORD 68 IN 1962
FOR ROCHESTER...
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 67. RECORD 67 IN 1962
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE......AJ/RRS/ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
518 PM MDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED JUL 16 2014
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC H5 COMPOSITE SHOWED A POTENT UPPER
TROUGH MAKING STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE COWBOY STATE.
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING HAS PUSHED SBCAPES TO
500-1000 J/KG OVER SOUTHEAST WY. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
DEVELOPED SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
AFTER CONVECTION ENDS LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING
AND LIGHT WINDS. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WET GROUNDS FROM RECENT
RAINFALL WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG
AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTER THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LIFT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RISE. THE
NAM/SREF DEPICT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE THAT MAY TRIGGER
A FEW AFTERNOON TSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO EASTERN WY FRIDAY. GREATEST INSTABILITY
/SBCAPES 800-1500 J/KG/ WILL RESIDE OVER WESTERN NE WITH 400-800 J/KG
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETS
ADVECTED NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW
OWING TO WEAK SHEAR BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 15C...MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED JUL 16 2014
A DRY AND HOT PATTERN IS CONTINUING TO BE DEPICTED IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTN TSTMS ON SAT AND SUN
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOWN (CAPES OF 200-400). THESE WILL BE HIGH
BASED STORMS WITH A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER AND LITTLE RAINFALL
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
ESPECIALLY ON SUN AFTN. A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS AND RH VALUES AROUND 15
PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY. HEIGHTS RISE FURTHER ON
MON AND TUES AS THE MONSOONAL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD. THE 597 AND
600 DM HEIGHTS AT 500MB ARE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND THE
MEX GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE
PLAINS. DID NOT GO THIS WARM BUT MAY NEED TO TREND TEMPS UPWARD
WITH LATER FCSTS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT AFTN CLOUD COVER
WILL BE LIMITED. NO SIGNIFICANT SURGES OF MIDLVL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE OR LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS SEEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 514 PM MDT WED JUL 16 2014
VERY MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH UPSLOPING SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL CREATE QUITE A LARGE AREA OF LOW CEILINGS THIS EVENING.
SREF AND HRRR FORECASTS SHOW THESE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS
EARLY AS 03Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND HERE AT KCYS.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS. STRATUS COULD LAST INTO
THE LATE MORNING AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT WED JUL 16 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL END LATER THIS EVENING. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN WYOMING
MOUNTAINS...AND MOST OF THE DISTRICTS FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY RAISE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
456 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST LARAMIE
COUNTY AND INTO LARIMER COUNTY IN COLORADO. RECEIVED SOME PEA
SIZED HAIL REPORTS SOUTH OF LARAMIE WHEN THESE STORMS MOVED INTO
ALBANY COUNTY EARLIER. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG INTERSTATE 25 STRETCHING FROM CHEYENNE TO
WHEATLAND. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG
THROUGH THE EVENING AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 50-55 KTS. WOULD
LIKE TO SEE THESE STORM CELLS BECOME MORE ISOLATED BEFORE GETTING
TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE SVR THREAT. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AGAIN ACROSS LARAMIE AND ALBANY
COUNTIES AFTER THIS STORM CLUSTER MOVES THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ANY INITIATION OF CELLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO AN UNSTABLE AND SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. WILL KEEP THE SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDS THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING.
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER JET TO THE SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AT SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF QPF
(0.25-0.75 INCHES) ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO LEFT
HEAVY RAIN IN THE FCST. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
MULTICELL STORMS MOVING FROM CONVERSE COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
PLATTE COUNTY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FROM
02-07Z. THE MODELS ARE LIKELY KEYING IN ON AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS COULD
BE SOME MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
SHORTWAVE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z WED. COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION ON WED MORNING SO TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 10-15
DEGREES COOLER. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE A GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER...THE STRONG TO SVR
THREAT WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
ON WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON THURS AFTN. THIS
WILL BE THE START OF A WELCOME BREAK FROM STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
A TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A STRONG UPPER HIGH FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN
EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY THOUGH WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH MAY
HINDER CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL TURN VERY WARM TO
HOT SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 700MB TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND 15-17C ACROSS THE CWA DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 453 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW COULD BRING LOWER CEILINGS TO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...IMPACTING KSNY AND KIBM AS WELL AS HERE AT KCYS.
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONCE
AGAIN
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TO
THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EXIST ON FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AS A
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
352 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST LARAMIE
COUNTY AND INTO LARIMER COUNTY IN COLORADO. RECEIVED SOME PEA
SIZED HAIL REPORTS SOUTH OF LARAMIE WHEN THESE STORMS MOVED INTO
ALBANY COUNTY EARLIER. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG INTERSTATE 25 STRETCHING FROM CHEYENNE TO
WHEATLAND. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG
THROUGH THE EVENING AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 50-55 KTS. WOULD
LIKE TO SEE THESE STORM CELLS BECOME MORE ISOLATED BEFORE GETTING
TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE SVR THREAT. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AGAIN ACROSS LARAMIE AND ALBANY
COUNTIES AFTER THIS STORM CLUSTER MOVES THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ANY INITIATION OF CELLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO AN UNSTABLE AND SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. WILL KEEP THE SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDS THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING.
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER JET TO THE SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AT SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF QPF
(0.25-0.75 INCHES) ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO LEFT
HEAVY RAIN IN THE FCST. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
MULTICELL STORMS MOVING FROM CONVERSE COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
PLATTE COUNTY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FROM
02-07Z. THE MODELS ARE LIKELY KEYING IN ON AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS COULD
BE SOME MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
SHORTWAVE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z WED. COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION ON WED MORNING SO TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 10-15
DEGREES COOLER. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE A GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER...THE STRONG TO SVR
THREAT WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
ON WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON THURS AFTN. THIS
WILL BE THE START OF A WELCOME BREAK FROM STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
A TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A STRONG UPPER HIGH FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN
EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY THOUGH WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH MAY
HINDER CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL TURN VERY WARM TO
HOT SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 700MB TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND 15-17C ACROSS THE CWA DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS
OF THE PLAINS THROUGH EVENING. ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBYS IN STORMS.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH SOME MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING. SOME IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY WEDS MORNING OVER THE PLAINS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TO
THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EXIST ON FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AS A
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1147 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
SVR POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTN AND EVENING
FOR AREAS NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE. SFC WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF CARBON COUNTY. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR (WHICH IS ABOUT 50 KTS). THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SVR STORMS WILL LIKELY STRETCH FROM EASTERN ALBANY COUNTY EASTWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF PLATTE...GOSHEN...AND LARAMIE COUNTIES. THIS IS
WHERE THE RUC SHOWS THE AXIS OF HIGHEST CAPE UP TO AROUND 1500
J/KG BY 22Z. INSTABILITY RAPIDLY DROPS OFF INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING
SHOWS THE NEXT FORECAST CONCERN MOVING ACROSS MONTANA...WHICH IS A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPINNING OVER NORTHERN IDAHO
AND WESTERN MONTANA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THEN EVENTUALLY RAPIDLY DIGGING
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN WYOMING BY TONIGHT.
LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY. WITH
DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH
DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR
NORTH...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA AS WELL LATER TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. SEVERE TSTORMS
WILL BE THE FIRST CONCERN OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY THE MIDDLE OF
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE DEVELOPS
ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING AND GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHEAR ON TOP OF THE 0-6 KM SHEAR BETWEEN 4O
TO 55 KNOTS ALREADY PROGGED FROM CENTRAL WYOMING SE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...A RELATIVELY STRONG JET
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND STALL NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS TODAY AND INTO LATE THIS
EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL GIVEN 0-2 KM
SHEAR BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA APPEARS TO
BE THE HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING WEST OF A LINE FROM SIDNEY NEBRASKA
TO LUSK WYOMING...INCLUDING THE LARAMIE RANGE.
FOR TONIGHT...FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS
THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS SHOW RESPECTABLE QPF
VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE MANY LOCATIONS DO
NOT NEED THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF I25. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS AT THIS TIME. A FEW MODELS SHOW IT AS FAR
WEST AS THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH OTHERS SHOWING THE BAND ALONG THE
PINE RIDGE. INCREASED POP TONIGHT BETWEEN 50 TO 70 PERCENT ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND ADDED WORDING FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS ALL MODELS SHOW THE FEATURE REMAINING OVER CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN WYOMING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT TSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE DUE TO COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
MODELS INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR ALOFT TO PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST A FEW TSTORMS FROM
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST
WELL NORTH OF I80.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND TEMPORARY BREAK FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF AND GFS
ARE BOTH SHOWING A MID SUMMER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE THIS WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S AND 90S FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND SOME 60S INTO THE
PLAINS.
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE BUT SHOULD SEE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE
WORK ITS WAY UP FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECTING AT LEAST A COUPLE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS A FEW DAYS
WITH LESSER CHANCES INTO THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN SOMETIME EARLY TO MID NEXT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS
OF THE PLAINS THROUGH EVENING. ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBYS IN STORMS.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH SOME MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING. SOME IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY WEDS MORNING OVER THE PLAINS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FINCH
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
356 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING
SHOWS THE NEXT FORECAST CONCERN MOVING ACROSS MONTANA...WHICH IS A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPINNING OVER NORTHERN IDAHO
AND WESTERN MONTANA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THEN EVENTUALLY RAPIDLY DIGGING
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN WYOMING BY TONIGHT.
LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY. WITH
DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH
DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR
NORTH...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA AS WELL LATER TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. SEVERE TSTORMS
WILL BE THE FIRST CONCERN OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY THE MIDDLE OF
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE DEVELOPS
ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING AND GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHEAR ON TOP OF THE 0-6 KM SHEAR BETWEEN 4O
TO 55 KNOTS ALREADY PROGGED FROM CENTRAL WYOMING SE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...A RELATIVELY STRONG JET
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND STALL NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS TODAY AND INTO LATE THIS
EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL GIVEN 0-2 KM
SHEAR BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA APPEARS TO
BE THE HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING WEST OF A LINE FROM SIDNEY NEBRASKA
TO LUSK WYOMING...INCLUDING THE LARAMIE RANGE.
FOR TONIGHT...FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS
THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS SHOW RESPECTABLE QPF
VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE MANY LOCATIONS DO
NOT NEED THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF I25. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS AT THIS TIME. A FEW MODELS SHOW IT AS FAR
WEST AS THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH OTHERS SHOWING THE BAND ALONG THE
PINE RIDGE. INCREASED POP TONIGHT BETWEEN 50 TO 70 PERCENT ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND ADDED WORDING FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS ALL MODELS SHOW THE FEATURE REMAINING OVER CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN WYOMING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT TSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE DUE TO COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
MODELS INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR ALOFT TO PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST A FEW TSTORMS FROM
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST
WELL NORTH OF I80.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND TEMPORARY BREAK FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF AND GFS
ARE BOTH SHOWING A MID SUMMER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE THIS WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S AND 90S FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND SOME 60S INTO THE
PLAINS.
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE BUT SHOULD SEE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE
WORK ITS WAY UP FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECTING AT LEAST A COUPLE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS A FEW DAYS
WITH LESSER CHANCES INTO THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN SOMETIME EARLY TO MID NEXT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
CONFIDENCE GROWING THAT LOWER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP HERE AT KCYS
IN SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HRRR SHOWING LOWER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AT KCYS FROM 12 TO 16Z OR SO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING...THEN OVER THE PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1046 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG TSTMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE
EARLIER THIS EVE WITHIN A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THAT ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVED SOUTHEAST
INTO COLORADO AS EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TSTM IN FAR SOUTHERN LARAMIE COUNTY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVE
HOURS...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE DRY SIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CARBON AND
ALBANY COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH THE
MAIN HAZARD. BUMPED UP POPS OVER THAT AREA FOR ONGOING PCPN
TRENDS. QUITE A BIT OF ANVIL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT
NOW THAT MAY IMPACT LOW TEMPS. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CONSENSUS
MOS FOR TONIGHT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO POPS IN THE WESTERN NE
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND RUC SHOW CONSIDERABLE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH LLVL WARM ADVECTION ALONG A BFF TO SNY LINE WITH GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WHILE NO QPF SHOWS IN THE MODELS...THE LATEST
HRRR DOES HINT AT SOME ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING SOME ISOLATED POPS LATER ON FOR POSSIBLE
ELEVATED CONVECTION EAST OF THE FRONT. REMAINDER OF THE FCST IS ON
TRACK. STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY TOMORROW AM...WITH TSTM CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE AFTN AND EVE. STAY TUNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
PRETTY QUIET AFTN ACROSS THE CWA WITH MUCH OF THE STORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO. THE AIRMASS IS MORE STABLE TODAY WITH CAPE VALUES
GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG...THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER IN SOUTHWEST LARAMIE COUNTY WHERE CAPES ARE UP TO 1000
J/KG. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND ANY STORMS THAN INITIATE ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS
NORTHERN IDAHO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO WY ON
TUES WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER CARBON COUNTY IN THE AFTN. SFC WINDS
GO SOUTHEASTERLY TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE MORNING
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION. CAPE VALUES ARE
UP TO 1250-1500 BY THE AFTN FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD TO
ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER. BULK SHEAR IS EXCELLENT (50-55 KTS) DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THUS IT IS CONTINUING
TO LOOK LIKE AN ACTIVE SVR DAY IN SOUTHEAST WY AND LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDS. STORMS THAT INITIATE ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE WILL TEND TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OR EVEN TO THE
SOUTH IN THE CASE OF A RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELL. HAVE HIGH POPS (40-50
PERCENT) EXTENDING THROUGH MOST OF TUES NIGHT AS THE AREA WILL
STILL BE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
SHORTWAVE IS STILL OVERHEAD ON WED...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LESS THAN TUES. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON WED
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
COOLED TEMPS ON WED A FEW DEGREES SUCH THAT MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOT
GETTING MUCH ABOVE 70 DEGREES. CAPE VALUES DO NOT REALLY GET ABOVE
750...SO WHILE THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING...THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE REDUCED COMPARED TO
TUES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TIMEFRAME IS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB THIS WEEK...AND WHEN THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT:
THE MODELS ARE STARTING SHOW A FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS SHOWING A VERY SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ON THURSDAY
WITH SOME FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS
NOT AS BULLISH ON THE MOISTURE EXCEPT OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE MAIN
PROBLEM IS LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO LACK OF RETURN
FLOW FROM THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S AND 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. WE FOLLOWED
CLOSEST TO THE ENSEMBLE HIGHS WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE
700MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES WITH DEVIATIONS OF 2 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
FRIDAY-MONDAY:
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS ARE ALL SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVIDENCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS TROF WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TIMING OF THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES
WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL INDUCE GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY WILL BE
DECENT WITH DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE WEST TO EAST. BEYOND
THIS TIMEFRAME...IT APPEARS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
WARMUP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH 700MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
CONFIDENCE GROWING THAT LOWER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP HERE AT KCYS
IN SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HRRR SHOWING LOWER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AT KCYS FROM 12 TO 16Z OR SO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING...THEN OVER THE PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
333 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
Overnight radar trends had peak intensity of bands of showers in
northwest Kansas around 07Z, with models showing better isentropic
upglide around 305K theta surfaces occurring around this time as the
upper wave continues southeast from eastern Wyoming. Little evidence
of additional isentropic lift developing today, with modest Q-vector
convergence passing through with the upper wave today. Somewhat
better lift and deeper moisture exists in southern areas and could
be enough for isolated to scattered showers to develop. This
solution is closer to the GFS, ECMWF, and recent RAP runs. NAM and
HRRR continue to attempt to develop more widespread precipitation in
the next several hours, but have little confidence in these ideas
given latest observation trends and NAM`s too wet bias with this
event. Persistent cloud cover should keep southern areas the coolest
with temps only rising some 10-15F from morning values in light
winds. Should see enough clearing behind the wave this afternoon for
middle to upper 70s elsewhere. South winds increase somewhat tonight
and could bring stratus north overnight. Specifics on cloud trends
and near-surface RH values will need to be monitored for possible
fog in mainly northern and western locations toward dawn Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
Friday through the weekend keeps the forecast area in generally
northwest flow. 850 mb temperatures rise from the lower teens to
near 20c by late Sunday afternoon, translating to highs rising from
near 80 Friday to the middle/upper 80s Saturday and approaching 90
by Sunday. Backed off on rain chances for Monday as although timing
of waves through the NW flow aloft is tricky, beginning to see some
agreement that a mid level ridge will move overhead on Monday and
could take out rain chances. Better agreement for a slightly
stronger wave on Tuesday and have kept low end chance pops for this
time frame.
By Tuesday, a 600dm 500mb upper high anchored over the Central
Rockies extends northeast, and may make an approach on its eastern
edge toward Eastern Kansas into Wednesday. This would bring the mid
level thermal ridge over our area and bring highs well into the 90s
for western counties with lower to middle 90s and possibly higher in
the east.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
00Z TOP RAOB showed quite a lot of mid level dry air. And with
profilers showing an easterly 850 wind over eastern KS, am not
sure where moisture for precip will come from. Water vapor shows
the shortwave may be tracking a little further west over CO. With
all this in mind, will continue with a dry forecast. Surface
ridging should keep winds below 10 KTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 333 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
Appears cloud cover should be enough to keep this morning`s
temperatures above record values. Record lowest maximum today at
Concordia is in jeopardy however. As mentioned above, cloud trends
will be key in how far temps drop tonight, and could again threaten
record minimums.
Record Minimum Temperatures:
July 17th July 18th
Topeka: 57 (1967, 2009) 56 (1911, 2009)
Concordia: 54 (1900) 57 (1899)
Record Lowest Maximum Temperatures:
July 17th
Topeka: 69 (1911)
Concordia: 74 (1911, 1967)
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters
CLIMATE...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
148 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF OUR REGION BY FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END TO THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
500MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS AXIS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS POOL OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH
WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE.
NEAR-TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RGEM SUGGEST THE WEAK LAKE
EFFECT WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTH OF TORONTO WEST ACROSS LAKE HURON AND
MICHIGAN DIPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. DESPITE LAKE CLOUDS
STILL EXPECT AREAS OF RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY IN THE DAY MAY PRODUCE
STRATO-CU FIELD AND CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND FROM
A LAKE SHADOW...HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES EAST OF OUR
REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS TOWARD NEW YORK EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STRAY CLOSE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER TO MID 50S
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.
RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 17 ARE AS FOLLOWS:
BUFFALO 52/1985
ROCHESTER 48/1892
WATERTOWN...44/1993
THESE RECORDS ARE PROBABLY SAFE...EXCEPT FOR BUFFALO WHERE IF SKIES
CAN CLEAR EARLY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THEN THE RECORD
LOW MAY BE IN JEOPARDY OF FALLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES SATURDAY WITH SOME DAYTIME CU AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
TIER MAY PREVENT VALLEY FOG FROM FORMING.
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY THEN NORMAL OR SLIGHT ABOVE FRIDAY NIGHT..DEPENDENT UPON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD AS MODELS
CONSENSUS IS STILL WEAK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER THAN THE
ECMWF HOWEVER NOW APPEARS TO BE TRENDING MORE TOWARD AN INVERTED
TROUGH SPREADING MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER ON SATURDAY
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH HANGING TOUGH OVER NEW YORK THOUGH POPS AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURE-WISE HIGH LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL READINGS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY THEN RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO WARM WITH TIME WITH READING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE ARE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE
LAKES...WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 3K FT.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SIT BACK ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ERIE. ALL OF THIS WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN SCT-
BKN CLOUDS WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 3K FT. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR LOWER CIGS IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT JHW...WHERE PERIODS
OF MVFR CIG AND EVEN A STRAY SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE
SOME FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER TOO...BUT WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT
CLOUDS THIS SHOULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE AND THUS WILL NOT CARRY IN
THE TAF.
AFTER THIS...EXPECT DIURNAL CLOUDS TODAY WITH BASES AOA 4K. THERE
MAY BE A FEW -SHRA WHICH WILL HAVE A BE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE TAF SITES. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAS PRODUCED SOME LAKE
EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS WHICH CONTINUES A CHANCE FOR A FEW
WATERSPOUTS ON LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. THE SZILAGYI WATERSPOUT
NOMOGRAM FORECAST SUGGESTS A SMALL CHANCE MAINLY ON LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AT WHICH TIME THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND COLD POOL WILL MAKE WATERSPOUT FORMATION UNLIKELY.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...LEVAN/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
250 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
FRIDAY...THEN OFF THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MAY
DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY AM WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU BASE OF
UPPER TROF OVR OHIO. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS
LACKING AS INDICATED BY 00Z PIT SOUNDING AND FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
PA IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY MORNING WITH MCLEAR SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS WARREN/MCKEAN COS...WHERE LAKE MOISTURE WILL MAKE A FEW
-SHRA POSSIBLE. RADAR AT 05Z SHOWS SOME OF THESE SHOWERS OVR ERIE
AND CRAWFORD COS AND LATEST RAP INDICATES PLUME OF HIGHER LAKE
MOISTURE WILL DRIFT INTO OUR NW COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.
TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE M/U40S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS
OF THE ALLEGHENIES. THE COOL TEMPS...IN COMBINATION WITH A CALM
WIND AND WARM RIVER/STREAM WATER...SHOULD PROMOTE LOCALLY DENSE
VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS AM IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
FURTHER EAST...AN UNEVENTFUL EARLY MORNING EXPECTED WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S UNDER MCLEAR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS TO START...FOLLOWED BY CUMULUS FORMATION AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
BY LATE AFTN...UPPER TROF AXIS SHOULD HAVE SWUNG EAST OF THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA...BRINGING SUBSIDENCE AND DWINDLING SHOWER
CHANCES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.
IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. COUPLE THESE CONDITIONS WITH NEGATIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES AND CLEAR SKIES AND THE NORMALLY COOLER VALLEYS OF THE
NW MTNS COULD MAKE A RUN AT 40F.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN
OF RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FRI-TUE WITH
SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF LOW OVR THE MISS VALLEY BECOMING DETACHED FROM
MAIN BRANCH OF JET...THEN SLOWLY DRIFTING NE TOWARD PA. EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN...BUT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION APPEARS PRUDENT SAT-TUE
BASED ON GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. HOWEVER NEGATIVE TO
NEUTRAL PWATS THAT SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STIFLE ANY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO THE MOUNTAIN
REGIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...MAINLY ALONG THE LAURELS. THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE UPPER TROF TO THE WEST AND UPPER
RIDGE PARKED OFF THE SE COAST WILL DRAW INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HAVE SLOWLY RAMPED TEMPS UPWARD TOWARD
NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IR STLT SHOWS FOG PATTERN DEVELOPING IN THE RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES EARLY THIS MORNING. BFD IMPACTED THUS FAR
WITH LIFR-MVFR VIS AND 2-400FT AGL CIG RESTRICTIONS...WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE THRU SUNRISE. EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF QUICKLY
GIVING WAY TO VFR BY 12-13Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTN.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-MON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
135 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
FRIDAY...THEN OFF THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MAY
DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY AM WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU BASE OF
UPPER TROF OVR OHIO. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS
LACKING AS INDICATED BY 00Z PIT SOUNDING AND FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
PA IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY MORNING WITH MCLEAR SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS WARREN/MCKEAN COS...WHERE LAKE MOISTURE WILL MAKE A FEW
-SHRA POSSIBLE. RADAR AT 05Z SHOWS SOME OF THESE SHOWERS OVR ERIE
AND CRAWFORD COS AND LATEST RAP INDICATES PLUME OF HIGHER LAKE
MOISTURE WILL DRIFT INTO OUR NW COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.
TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE M/U40S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS
OF THE ALLEGHENIES. THE COOL TEMPS...IN COMBINATION WITH A CALM
WIND AND WARM RIVER/STREAM WATER...SHOULD PROMOTE LOCALLY DENSE
VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS AM IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
FURTHER EAST...AN UNEVENTFUL EARLY MORNING EXPECTED WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S UNDER MCLEAR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS TO START...FOLLOWED BY CUMULUS FORMATION AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
BY LATE AFTN...UPPER TROF AXIS SHOULD HAVE SWUNG EAST OF THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA...BRINGING SUBSIDENCE AND DWINDLING SHOWER
CHANCES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. COUPLE THESE CONDITIONS WITH NEGATIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES AND CLEAR SKIES AND THE NORMALLY COOLER VALLEYS OF THE
NW MTNS COULD MAKE A RUN AT 40F.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN
OF RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FRI-TUE WITH
SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF LOW OVR THE MISS VALLEY BECOMING DETACHED FROM
MAIN BRANCH OF JET...THEN SLOWLY DRIFTING NE TOWARD PA. EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN...BUT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION APPEARS PRUDENT SAT-TUE
BASED ON GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. HOWEVER NEGATIVE TO
NEUTRAL PWATS THAT SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STIFLE ANY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO THE MOUNTAIN
REGIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...MAINLY ALONG THE LAURELS. THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE UPPER TROF TO THE WEST AND UPPER
RIDGE PARKED OFF THE SE COAST WILL DRAW INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HAVE SLOWLY RAMPED TEMPS UPWARD TOWARD
NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL A FEW CLDS ACROSS THE REGION. 03Z TAFS ADJUSTED.
MAIN THING WILL BE ISOLATED POCKETS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG LAST NIGHT...EXPECT LESS
FOG TONIGHT WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS. ALSO PERHAPS SCT004 AT IPT
LATER TONIGHT...WILL JUST GO SCT FOR NOW...NOT BKN...GIVEN
WIND DIRECTION FROM THE NW.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AGAIN ON THU...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
NICE DAY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER MUCH NEEDED DRY DAY AFTER A
WET SPRING AND SUMMER SO FAR.
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM FROM
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST
SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-MON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1152 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
.AVIATION...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE NORTH
TEXAS TERMINALS DURING THIS TAF FORECAST. ON GOING CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE METROPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
ACROSS THE METROPLEX TERMINALS 07-12Z WHILE UPSTREAM CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL BEGIN ANOTHER WAVE OF CONVECTION /MCS/ ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR CIGS DURING ANY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND COULD LAST THROUGH 12Z BEFORE IMPROVING. EXPECTING
VFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THURSDAY...THEN BECOMING MVFR TO IFR
THURSDAY NIGHT AS NEAR CONTINUOUS CONVECTION PREVAILS.
ALTERNATE TERMINALS SHOULD BE PLANNED FOR AS KDFW INBOUND TRAFFIC
WOULD BE IMPACTED BY CLUSTERS OF TSRA AT/NEAR THE CORNER POSTS.
UNSURE ABOUT A KDFW GROUND STOP...BUT ITS POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR
SO AT SOME TIME WITHIN THIS FORECAST...MOST LIKELY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY EVENING. 75
&&
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER...OTHER STORMS ARE BETWEEN CHILDRESS AND GRAHAM...
WITH AN ADDITIONAL COMPLEX OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT EXTENDS FROM OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO
NORTH OF JUNCTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS
GOOD. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/
MODELS STRUGGLED TODAY AND UNDERESTIMATED THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH 18Z FORECAST DEW POINTS GENERALLY 3-7 DEGREES BELOW
THE METARS. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM JACKSBORO TO GRANBURY TO
CORSICANA. STORMS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE BETTER PRECIP STILL TO COME THURSDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE DOES CONVERGE ON HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM ONE OR MORE MCS
OR MCS SEGMENTS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP
THAT WE ARE EXPECTING. THERE MAY BE HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWEST INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY THAT MAY SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY AS WELL. HRRR HINTS AT THIS BUT TTU
WRF DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK.
THE SECOND ROUND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...ALSO IN THE FORM OF SOME SORT OF MCS OR QLCS. THESE
STORMS WILL BE AIDED BY A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE AND A PUSH FROM
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.
PRECIP WILL SHUT DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TO OUR WEST.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN THE EAST AND HAVE LEFT THE
20 POPS THERE. CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. THERE MAY HAVE TO BE LOW POPS ADDED NEAR MID WEEK FOR A
POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT THERE IS NO CONSENSUS ON IT YET. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 74 88 73 87 73 / 70 80 80 50 10
WACO, TX 75 89 75 88 72 / 30 60 80 50 20
PARIS, TX 67 83 69 83 70 / 40 90 90 60 20
DENTON, TX 73 85 71 86 71 / 70 90 90 50 10
MCKINNEY, TX 71 86 72 86 70 / 60 90 90 50 10
DALLAS, TX 74 88 73 87 73 / 70 80 80 50 20
TERRELL, TX 72 89 73 88 71 / 50 80 90 60 20
CORSICANA, TX 73 89 73 86 72 / 30 60 80 50 20
TEMPLE, TX 74 89 75 86 73 / 20 50 60 50 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 86 70 85 70 / 80 80 80 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ091>095-101>107-117>123.
&&
$$
75/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
935 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2014
.UPDATE...PATCHY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS AROUND 500 FT MAINLY OVER NE
FL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 10 AM WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
DRY AIR FOR JULY STANDARDS WITH PWAT OF 1.45 INCHES ON THE JAX
SOUNDING...EVEN DRIER AT TLH WITH PWAT 0.97 INCHES. THIS AS A AS A
RESULT OF A WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS AND AN
ASSOCD SFC COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER EXTREME SE GA. BEST MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER OUR S ZONES AS PER BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER PRODUCE
WHERE MEASURED VALUES ARE ABOUT 1.7 INCHES.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AREA AND THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT NEAR THE FL/GA STATE LINE. BEST
RAIN CHANCES OF AROUND 20%...MAINLY AFTER 1 PM...WILL BE ADVERTISED
FOR THE OUR SRN MOST ZONES AND INCLUDING AROUND THE ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDICES SIMILAR DUE TO
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS DUE TO DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR AROUND THE JAX METRO AREA IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES. FEW TO SCT CU
EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE AROUND NOON TO 1 PM WITH CU POSSIBLY BROKEN
FOR BRIEF PERIOD BUT ABOVE 3000 FT. LATEST HRRR AND ARW MODELS SHOW
VERY LIMITED CONVECTION TODAY ALONG THE W AND E COAST SEA BREEZES SO
NO PLANS FOR INCLUDING CONVECTION IN TAFS WITH RAIN CHANCE PROBS
GENERALLY 20% OR LESS. WINDS WILL BE NW TO N TURNING E IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTN FOR COASTAL TAFS...WITH GNV MORE VARIABLE AT ABOUT 6 KT OR
LESS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS ARE NWLY AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN TO NE TO E AS ATLC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE AFTN.
MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO REFRESH WINDS AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN THE
CWF UPDATE. ESE SWELLS NOTED TO BE ABOUT 1.5 FT FROM THE ESE.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WITH SURF OF 1-2 FT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 94 68 93 69 / 10 10 10 10
SSI 88 76 87 75 / 10 0 10 10
JAX 91 70 91 71 / 10 0 10 10
SGJ 88 74 88 74 / 10 10 10 10
GNV 93 68 93 70 / 20 20 10 10
OCF 92 69 93 71 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/MCALLISTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
835 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY)...
12Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF JULY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...HOWEVER WE
ARE BEGINNING TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS UNSEASONABLE TROUGH
SHIFTING EASTWARD AND DEAMPLIFYING. THE MAIN ANCHOR UPPER LOW OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS BEGINNING TO OPEN UP AND PIVOT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN CANADA. OUR FORECAST AREA STILL RESIDES
AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT OUR MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY ZONAL WITH TIME AS THE UNSEASONABLE SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT FOR ASCENT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST 48 HOURS SHIFTS OFF INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP COLUMN MOISTURE IS ALSO BEING SHUNTED OFF
TO THE EAST WITH A MUCH LESS "JUICY" ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. 12Z KTBW
SOUNDING PROFILE DEFINITELY SHOWS THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DRIER AIR OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA COMPARED TO 12-24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE PW VALUE
DROPPING TO AROUND 1.55".
AT THE SURFACE...DEEP SOUTH JULY COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...AND REALLY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH
MORE PROGRESS SOUTH BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SO...UNFORTUNATELY...THOSE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL NOT
QUITE ARRIVE FOR US. SO CLOSE...YET SO FAR AWAY. A WHOLE LIST OF
OBSERVATIONS NEAR OR AT RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES CAN BE FOUND THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...JUST NOT FOR US.
HAVE MADE SOME OPTIMISTIC ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAIN FORECAST FOR THE
TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD TODAY IN ANTICIPATION OF THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND LOSS OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT TO SOMEWHAT
SUPPRESS ANY TYPE OF ACTIVITY LIKE WE SAW ACROSS THOSE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT WE DO NOT EXPECT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD "WASHOUT" OF A DAY
PATTERN SEEN RECENTLY SHOULD NOT BE REPEATED. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL EXIST TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...BUT
STILL SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR FREQUENT AS THE ROUND AFTER
ROUND SEEN WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE MORE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LESS CLOUD COVER...WE WILL
ALSO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT ACTUALLY ACHIEVING A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE
TODAY. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...THEN CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE IN A FURTHER DECREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES INSIDE THE I-75 CORRIDOR AS LATER DAY ACTIVITY FOCUSES
INLAND AND OVER TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (FRIDAY)...
FRIDAY WILL MARK A RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN. THE
MAIN FOCUS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS THE DRIER
POST-FRONTAL AIR EXITS AND MODIFIES.
.MID TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A NEAR A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA. SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND TOWARD LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH SEA AND LAND BREEZES. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
ADEQUATE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE BROADENING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH LIGHT WIND BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
PENINSULA FROM THE ATLANTIC AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
SOUTHEAST REGION. THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION INTO MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG FAR NORTH FLORIDA. DRY AIR
ALOFT HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND EXPECT
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR IFR VISIBILITY TO DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR MAKES IT INTO THE FORT MYERS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANCES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BY
EVENING. VFR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 00Z.
&&
.MARINE...
A FRONT EXITS THE REGION OVER EASTERN FLORIDA AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN FLORIDA DRIFTS NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS THEN BECOMING ISOLATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY AND THEN
DECREASING AS THE HIGH MOVES NORTH. THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARDS WILL
BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT WETTING RAINS MITIGATE MOST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL TAMPA BAY AREA RIVERS ARE FORECASTED TO REACH FLOOD IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERMITTENT BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL. THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA...MANATEE RIVER AT
MYAKKA HEAD...AND CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS ARE UNDER
FLOOD WARNINGS AS THEY RISE AFTER HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PEACE RIVER
AT ARCADIA IS FORECASTED TO REACH ABOVE 9 FEET...PLACING IT INTO
ACTION STAGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. RESIDENTS AND THOSE
IMPACTED BY RIVER FLOODING SHOULD MONITOR RAINFALL...THE LATEST
WARNINGS/FORECASTS/STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...AND AVOID FLOODING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 89 78 92 79 / 50 20 30 10
FMY 91 77 92 78 / 70 30 30 20
GIF 90 75 93 77 / 60 30 40 20
SRQ 87 78 91 77 / 70 20 20 20
BKV 90 70 93 74 / 50 20 30 20
SPG 88 80 91 82 / 60 20 20 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...NOAH
MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...GARCIA MID TERM/
LONG TERM...PAXTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
625 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
Overnight radar trends had peak intensity of bands of showers in
northwest Kansas around 07Z, with models showing better isentropic
upglide around 305K theta surfaces occurring around this time as the
upper wave continues southeast from eastern Wyoming. Little evidence
of additional isentropic lift developing today, with modest Q-vector
convergence passing through with the upper wave today. Somewhat
better lift and deeper moisture exists in southern areas and could
be enough for isolated to scattered showers to develop. This
solution is closer to the GFS, ECMWF, and recent RAP runs. NAM and
HRRR continue to attempt to develop more widespread precipitation in
the next several hours, but have little confidence in these ideas
given latest observation trends and NAM`s too wet bias with this
event. Persistent cloud cover should keep southern areas the coolest
with temps only rising some 10-15F from morning values in light
winds. Should see enough clearing behind the wave this afternoon for
middle to upper 70s elsewhere. South winds increase somewhat tonight
and could bring stratus north overnight. Specifics on cloud trends
and near-surface RH values will need to be monitored for possible
fog in mainly northern and western locations toward dawn Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
Friday through the weekend keeps the forecast area in generally
northwest flow. 850 mb temperatures rise from the lower teens to
near 20c by late Sunday afternoon, translating to highs rising from
near 80 Friday to the middle/upper 80s Saturday and approaching 90
by Sunday. Backed off on rain chances for Monday as although timing
of waves through the NW flow aloft is tricky, beginning to see some
agreement that a mid level ridge will move overhead on Monday and
could take out rain chances. Better agreement for a slightly
stronger wave on Tuesday and have kept low end chance pops for this
time frame.
By Tuesday, a 600dm 500mb upper high anchored over the Central
Rockies extends northeast, and may make an approach on its eastern
edge toward Eastern Kansas into Wednesday. This would bring the mid
level thermal ridge over our area and bring highs well into the 90s
for western counties with lower to middle 90s and possibly higher in
the east.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
Ongoing showers in central portions of Kansas appear to be a bit
more prevalent than short-range models advertised, but still have
little confidence in anything reaching the terminals, and
struggling nature of the precip as it comes east supports this.
Will need to keep an eye on stratus potential after 06Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 333 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
Appears cloud cover should be enough to keep this morning`s
temperatures above record values. Record lowest maximum today at
Concordia is in jeopardy however. As mentioned above, cloud trends
will be key in how far temps drop tonight, and could again threaten
record minimums.
Record Minimum Temperatures:
July 17th July 18th
Topeka: 57 (1967, 2009) 56 (1911, 2009)
Concordia: 54 (1900) 57 (1899)
Record Lowest Maximum Temperatures:
July 17th
Topeka: 69 (1911)
Concordia: 74 (1911, 1967)
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65
CLIMATE...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
609 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
4 KM NCEP WRF INITIALIZED BEST AT 00Z BUT THE RAP 13 SEEMS TO BE
VERIFYING BEST AT 11Z. BLENDED THE RAP/WRF FOR TODAY AND LEANED
TOWARD THE NAM12/ECMWF TONIGHT. WILL CARRY VCSH FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY AND MAINTAINED A TEMPO FOR AFTN TSRA. SKY CONDS WILL VARY
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014/
DISCUSSION...
RADAR STARTING TO GET MORE RETURNS ON IT THIS MORNING WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURRING IN NORTH TEXAS. AT 250 MB AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AGAIN EXISTS OVER OUR AREA AS A RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND A TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST.
AT 500 MB A SHORTWAVE WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE WYOMING/ COLORADO
BORDER. THE SHORTWAVE CAN ALSO CLEARLY BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THIS
MORNING. THIS IS THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT 850 MB THERE WAS
A SHEAR AXIS RUNNING SOUTHEAST TO NORTH FROM A GALVESTON TO
HOUSTON TO MADISONVILLE LINE.
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TRICKY AS THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE JUST A
TAD TO NORTH STILL TO BE THE DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS
AROUND 2.00". THE 4KM NCEP WRF INITIALIZED THE BEST BUT MISSED
THIS MORNINGS PRECIP. GLOBAL MODELS DIDN`T INITIALIZE GREAT BUT
ARE SHOWING THIS MORNINGS PRECIP. OVERALL HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
4KM NCEP WRF DUE TO GOOD PERFORMANCE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THINK THAT WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE RICH AIR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL IN. THE FOCUS
LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE 850 SHEAR AXIS (OR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ZONES). NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME THOUGH. THEN INTO
TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. AT 250MB SOUTHEAST TEXAS FALLS INTO A WEAK RRQ WITH PVA
MOVING OVERHEAD. 850MB WINDS ALSO START TO PICK UP SPEED AT THIS
TIME WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOWING AT LEAST 30KTS. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE IN NORTH TEXAS/
LOUISIANA ALONG A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. GFS OMEGA FIELDS SHOW
WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN THIS AREA WITH ONLY POCKETS OF
UPPER LEVEL LIFT DOWN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE NEW NAM SHOWS MORE
PVA OVER OUR AREA AND THEREFORE MORE UPPER LEVEL LIFT. EITHER WAY
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY.
THE QUESTION REMAINS ON THE FLOODING THREAT. STORM MOTION REMAINS
AROUND 15KTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ALSO IS AT 4" FOR A
3HR TOTAL. THE 4KM NCEP WRF ALSO KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL NORTH
OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE GRIDS
FOR ONLY THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE CWA OR APPROXIMATELY A LINE FROM
BRENHAM TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD FOR
THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. PEOPLE SHOULD STAY TUNED
FOR UPDATES THOUGH AS WE FURTHER REFINE THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL. GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT AIR (AT OR ABOVE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR) AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE.
THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OUT WEST
WITH SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAINING ON THE PERIPHERY. AS OF NOW THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN IN. THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK MODELS ALSO MOVE A POTENT SHORTWAVE
SOUTHWARDS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ALLOWING THE CHANCES OF RAIN TO
CONTINUE FOR OUR AREA. 23
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER WEST TEXAS WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A SCEC
HAS BEEN ISSUED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR THE 0 TO 60 NM
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA TODAY AND FRIDAY. MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND NEAR ALL STORMS. THE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 89 74 89 74 92 / 50 70 60 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 88 75 87 75 91 / 50 70 60 40 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 79 88 80 89 / 50 50 60 50 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
329 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A WEAKENING TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
INTERIOR NORTHWEST MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL
LOCATIONS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. MOST OF THE
INTERIOR CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED AND CUMULUS IS BEGINNING TO FORM
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EARLIER CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW
DECREASING AS A CAPPING INVERSION SEEMS TO BE WINNING OUT. STILL THE
MOST RECENT HRRR MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT STORMS MAY STILL FORM OVER
THE TRINITY HORN OR YOLLA BOLLY MOUNTAINS...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE TROUGH WILL RUN INTO THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO
STALL OUT AND SPLIT ITS ENERGY AWAY FROM THE REGION. THERE IS THE
SLIM POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY SOME CUMULUS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS EACH
DAY.
BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT ALLOWING
ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW TO BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. INCREASING INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY ALLOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE NOW LOOKS
LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY IS GREATEST...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THUS ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. IF
THE 12Z GFS MODEL IS CORRECT THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH
PULLS NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN
ON ONE OF THOSE TWO DAYS. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE THE UPPER LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RETROGRADE FARTHER OFF THE COAST ON
TUESDAY ALLOWING RIDING TO REDEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AND LITTLE CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS.
TYPICAL SUMMER STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN EACH NIGHT AND MORNING. EXPECTING THE STRATUS TO MIX BACK TO
THE IMMEDIATE COAST RESULTING IN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING EACH DAY.
RPA
&&
.AVIATION....MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO REDUCED
CEILINGS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.MARINE...THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE INCREASING AS A STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC INCREASES
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND SEAS AND WILL BE IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE
TO AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. THE WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT
SATURDAY PZZ475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
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HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1233 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
Overnight radar trends had peak intensity of bands of showers in
northwest Kansas around 07Z, with models showing better isentropic
upglide around 305K theta surfaces occurring around this time as the
upper wave continues southeast from eastern Wyoming. Little evidence
of additional isentropic lift developing today, with modest Q-vector
convergence passing through with the upper wave today. Somewhat
better lift and deeper moisture exists in southern areas and could
be enough for isolated to scattered showers to develop. This
solution is closer to the GFS, ECMWF, and recent RAP runs. NAM and
HRRR continue to attempt to develop more widespread precipitation in
the next several hours, but have little confidence in these ideas
given latest observation trends and NAM`s too wet bias with this
event. Persistent cloud cover should keep southern areas the coolest
with temps only rising some 10-15F from morning values in light
winds. Should see enough clearing behind the wave this afternoon for
middle to upper 70s elsewhere. South winds increase somewhat tonight
and could bring stratus north overnight. Specifics on cloud trends
and near-surface RH values will need to be monitored for possible
fog in mainly northern and western locations toward dawn Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
Friday through the weekend keeps the forecast area in generally
northwest flow. 850 mb temperatures rise from the lower teens to
near 20c by late Sunday afternoon, translating to highs rising from
near 80 Friday to the middle/upper 80s Saturday and approaching 90
by Sunday. Backed off on rain chances for Monday as although timing
of waves through the NW flow aloft is tricky, beginning to see some
agreement that a mid level ridge will move overhead on Monday and
could take out rain chances. Better agreement for a slightly
stronger wave on Tuesday and have kept low end chance pops for this
time frame.
By Tuesday, a 600dm 500mb upper high anchored over the Central
Rockies extends northeast, and may make an approach on its eastern
edge toward Eastern Kansas into Wednesday. This would bring the mid
level thermal ridge over our area and bring highs well into the 90s
for western counties with lower to middle 90s and possibly higher in
the east.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
VFR conditions expected through the TAF. Some small potential for
fog during the early morning, but VFR appears much more likely at
this time.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
611 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AS TROF AXIS ROTATES
INTO EASTERN NY, AND DIURNAL HEATING WANES. RUC DEPICTS DECREASING
LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WILL ALLOW THE POPS TO DROP BELOW ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THE NEXT 2
HOURS, AND WILL FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISLD TO SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVED OVER C NY IN ASSCTN
WITH THE TROF AXIS MOVG RIGHT THRU NY/PA. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
ASCENT AT MID-LEVELS WAS LEADING TO SOME INSTABILITY THAT WAS
TRIGGERED BY THE DIURNAL HEATING. THIS ACVTY WILL LAST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AND THEN FADE FAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PV MAX PASSES
E AND THE UPPER TROF FLATTENS.
THE TROF AXIS PASSES E OF THE REGION AND HGHTS RISES..THIS WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS NY AND PA WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES
BY FRI AM. EXPECT THE HIGH TO REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU FRIDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS NY AND
PENNSYLVANIA KEEPING MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY WEST OF OUR
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PA AND FAR WESTERN NY... HOWEVER MODEL
CONSENSUS IS STRONG INDICATING THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY WEST OF CENTRAL NY. HAVE GONE WITH A 20 TO 30 POP FOR
SATURDAY MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-81 TO ACCOUNT FOR A SMALL
CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE FINGER
LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND JUST A LOW CHC POP FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RETURNING TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AND NOTHING MORE THAN LOW
CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEAK SFC-TO-UPPER LEVEL
FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. KEEPING ANY FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WEST OF OUR AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT
WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY BUT WILL
KEEP POPS ONLY IN THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE ECMWF
SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR QUITE WARM CONDITIONS BY MIDWEEK WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISLD TO SCT SHRA ACRS C NY WHICH WAS MAINLY UNDER A VFR
DECK. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED AT THIS POINT. I EXPECT A VFR
BKN CUMULUS LAYER TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND THEN FADE FAST TWD
SUNSET. I EXPECT CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH VLIFR FOG FORMING AT
KELM 8-12Z. REST OF TAF SITES WILL BE VFR.
FOR FRI...VFR WITH JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS
THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTE NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT WINDS BACK
TO UNDER 5 KTS AND WEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS FRI AM.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT TO SAT...MOSTLY VFR. POSSIBLY SOM IFR VALLEY FOG AT ELM.
SUN-MON-TUE...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DJN
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMBINED
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTED TO ANOTHER AFTERNOON
OF HIGH BASED CU. LIKE YESTERDAY...NO RETURNS ON AREA RADARS.
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE QUIET AS
WELL...SO FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL OVER THIS PERIOD...AND
INCLUDE CLOUDS AND TEMPS.
TONIGHT...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER ACROSS
THE STATE. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZE AND MODIFYING LOW LEVEL TEMPS. BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGES IN REGARDS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN TODAY. BUT THE CAP IS PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN BETWEEN
700-650MB SO THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FORMING FROM THE HIGH BASED CU
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. THIS CU IS AGAIN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
MDLS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE MEAN FLOW TRANSITION FROM WRN CONUS
UPR RDG/ERN CONUS UPR TROF TO A PACIFIC NW UPR TROF/CNTRL CONUS
UPR RDG/NE CONUS UPR TROF. INITIALLY...THE CNTRL CONUS UPR RDG TO
EXTEND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER AIR/CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT TO NE WI WITH LITTLE PCPN. HOWEVER...TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPR RDG REFOCUSES TO THE PLAINS AND BRINGS A NW
FLOW TO WI. THIS TRANSITION WOULD EVENTUALLY BRING COOLER/MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE FCST AREA. EXACTLY HOW ALL OF THIS
PLAYS OUT REMAINS THE BIGGEST FCST CHALLENGE.
EVEN THO HI PRES TO HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD NEW ENGLAND FRI NGT...NE
WI TO REMAIN UNDER ITS WRN FRINGE TO KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET. A
PREVAILING S-SW WIND WL CONT TO PULL WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR MASS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...JUST NOT AS FAST AS SOME OF THE MDLS
ADVERTISE. AS A RESULT...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE
55-60 DEG RANGE OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA.
ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY WHERE A WEAK CDFNT IS
FCST TO TRY AND PUSH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON SAT. PARTS OF
N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE ANY PCPN TO BE TIED TO THE FNT AND REMAIN TO
OUR NW THRU THE DAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S INLAND...MID TO UPR 70S CLOSER TO LAKE MI.
THIS CDFNT IS PROGGED BY THE MDLS TO GRADUALLY WIPE-OUT TO OUR NW
SAT NGT...PRIMARILY DUE TO A LACK OF PUSH BEHIND IT (WINDS ALREADY
TURNING SOUTH OVER MN. FURTHERMORE...ANY UPR SUPPORT PASSES BY TO
OUR NORTH. THEREFORE...PREFER TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR SAT NGT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MIN TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO MILDER
THAN FRI NGT WHICH WOULD PLACE MOST OF NE WI AROUND THE 60 DEG
MARK. AS AN UPR TROF BEGINS TO DIG S-SE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW ON
SUNDAY...THE DOWNSTREAM UPR RDG TO BUILD NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD WI WITH RISING UPR HEIGHTS AND WARMING 8H TEMPS. THESE
RISING UPR HEIGHTS WOULD BRING A CAP TO THE ATMOSPHERE AND PREVENT
ANY SHWRS/TSTMS FROM DEVELOPING. THE WARMING 8H TEMPS WL SEND MAX
TEMPS INTO THE LWR TO MID 80S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 70S LAKESIDE.
SOME DOUBT CREEPS INTO THE FCST BY MON AS THE STRENGTH OF THE UPR
RDG COMES INTO QUESTION. MDLS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF CRUISING
ACROSS SRN CANADA AND IF THE RDG WEAKENS AT ALL...PARTS OF NRN OR
CNTRL WI WOULD BE VULNERABLE TO A PASSING SHWR OR TSTM EITHER LATE
SUNDAY NGT OR ON MON. THE REST OF NE WI SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER DAY ON MON WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S AND MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S (AGAIN COOLER
NEAR LAKE MI).
TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY STARTING LATER MON NGT INTO TUE WITH
REGARDS TO A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROF AND CDFNT. WHILE THE LONG-
TERM MDLS AGREE NOW THAT THE UPR RDG WL REFOCUS TO THE ERN ROCKIES/
WRN PLAINS...THE MDLS CONT TO WAFFLE WITH HOW FAST TO SEND THE
SHORTWAVE TROF/CDFNT THRU WI. THE LATEST MDL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT
THE TUE/TUE NGT TIME FRAME WOULD BE THE BEST CHC OF SEEING AN AREA-
WIDE PCPN EVENT...WITH THE PCPN LINGERING INTO WED. TEMPS ARE NO
BARGAIN EITHER ON TUE AS TEMPS COULD REALLY WARM AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT. IF THIS FNT SLOW DOWN AT ALL...PARTS OF NE WI COULD BE
PUSHING THE 90 DEG MARK.
PCPN CHCS WOULD THEN TAPER OFF LATER ON WED AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF/
CDFNT DEPART. UNCERTAINTY WL CARRY OVER FROM TUE INTO WED UNTIL
ALL THE MDLS CAN CORRECTLY TIME THIS SYSTEM THRU THE REGION. BY
THU...HI PRES TO HAVE BUILT INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BROUGHT
COOLER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO NE WI WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014
GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.
A SCT TO BKN CUMULUS FIELD WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...ONLY TO REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE
CU WILL BE HIGH BASED...SO NO THREAT TO CIGS FALLING BELOW VFR.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KTS TOO.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......MPC