Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/16/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1248 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.AVIATION...
FOR KHRO AND KBPK...SHRA/TSRA IN MO HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PUSH SWD.
LATEST HRRR INDICATES A WINDOW THIS MORNING WHEN BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THESE TAF SITES...FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS A
LULL OF A FEW HOURS...THEN A RENEWED CHANCE OF CONVECTION AS
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN. ALL IN ALL...TIMING CONFIDENCE
AT THIS POINT IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT...SO VCTS INDICATED. LATER
TAFS MAY BE ABLE TO REFINE A PERIOD WHEN TEMPO TSRA IS WARRANTED.
FOR KHOT...KLIT...KADF...KPBF...AND KLLQ...PATCHY MORNING
BR...ESPECIALLY AT KADF DUE TO ITS LOCATION IN AN AREA THAT
FREQUENTLY HAS STANDING WATER. OTHERWISE VFR THIS MORNING. DID NOT
INDICATE ANY CONVECTION TIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE. PROB30 INDICATED AFTER 00Z. AFTER CONVECTION DOES BEGIN
TO BREAK OUT LATER TODAY...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA ONCE TIMING BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED. AMD NOT SKED INDICATED AT KHOT DUE TO PROBLEMS WITH
VISIBILITY SENSOR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
AVIATION...
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NRN SITES AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARDS THE STATE. OVER TIME...THIS FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE BY MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA INCREASING FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS FOR
MON AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN EFFECTS FROM SHRA/TSRA...EXPECT DOMINANT
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...COULD
STILL SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE MON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO NEAR 105 TODAY AND MONDAY. THEN
CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INITIALLY...THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FINALLY MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURE FORECAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION.
THIS AFTERNOON...A MOSTLY SUNNY...HOT AND HUMID DAY HAS SET IN.
HIGHS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH A FEW UPPER 90S BY THE
END OF THE DAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGED FROM THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 102 DEGREES. THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BECOME MORE CENTERED WEST
OVER TX AND THE SW U.S...WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH HAS DEEPENED NOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY HAS PUSHED FROM THE
EASTERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SOME
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SEEN INTO AR...WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND SOME PREFRONTAL TROUGHING INTO NORTHERN AR. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS NOT DEVELOPED IN THE AREA.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TONIGHT WILL SEE A GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO AR. CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO AR MONDAY NIGHT
TO TUESDAY AM...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION. OVERALL THREAT
FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED AND LOW AT
THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL STILL BE HOT OVER SOUTHERN TO PARTS OF
CENTRAL AR ON MONDAY...BUT THEN LOWER WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. ON
TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE STATE...CONVECTION CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH...AS TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPS WILL BE FROM 10 TO NEAR 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY A MUCH LOWER CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT AS THE
FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY SOUTH OF AR...THEN LIFTS MORE
NORTH...UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST IN THE MODELS...BRING
POSSIBLE ROUNDS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO AR. SOUTHERN AR
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN. POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A WET AND COOL FORECAST WILL BE CONTINUED IN THE EXTENDED...AS
TROUGH OVER THE REGION REMAINS IN PLACE. STRONG WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT THURSDAY...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES
WILL TAPER OFF...BUT KEPT SOME IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...AS
ANOTHER WAVES MOVES THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE...WITH READINGS 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EVEN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 67 81 59 80 / 40 20 10 10
CAMDEN AR 74 89 65 84 / 50 40 10 30
HARRISON AR 64 78 56 76 / 20 10 10 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 72 86 62 81 / 40 30 10 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 84 62 82 / 50 30 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 74 88 64 85 / 50 40 10 20
MOUNT IDA AR 71 85 62 80 / 40 30 10 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 64 79 57 77 / 20 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 69 81 59 80 / 40 20 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 73 86 63 83 / 50 40 10 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 68 82 60 78 / 30 20 10 20
SEARCY AR 70 82 61 81 / 40 20 10 20
STUTTGART AR 72 84 62 82 / 50 30 10 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
927 AM MST MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST DUE TO CLOUDS...HUMIDITY...AND
RAINFALL. BY WEDNESDAY...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. INCREASED HUMIDITY AND A THREAT OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MAINLY TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY AS THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS
BOTH FAVORING AND ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON...AND INDICATING THINGS
SHOULD BE MUCH QUIETER. MORNING SOUNDING AT PSR REVEALED 1.75 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH SATELLITE DERIVED VALUES NORTH OF 2
INCHES IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY NEAR YUMA...BLYTHE...AND
EL CENTRO. CERTAINLY FEELS MUGGY OUT THERE WITH WIDESPREAD SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. OBVIOUSLY...THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...MORNING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA HAS LARGELY
EVAPORATED ACROSS THE LOWER AZ DESERTS...WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. VIS SATELLITE ALSO SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE
OF A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY MCV OVER EASTERN ARIZONA.
NEARLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AFTER 21Z...WITH SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING WELL OVER 1500 J/KG MLCAPES. THIS SEEMS VASTLY OVERDONE
BASED ON THIS MORNINGS 12Z PSR SOUNDING...WHICH IF MODIFIED TO SHOW
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER 100S AND DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE MID
60S...STILL ONLY INDICATES 500-750 J/KG WITH A 100 J/KG CAP.
REALISTICALLY...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF A CAP...BUT I DONT
THINK THINGS WILL PLAY OUT AS ACTIVE AS THE HRRR /FOR EXAMPLE/
SUGGESTS. STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO FORM ALONG THE RIM AS WELL AS
ACROSS SE AZ UNDER CLEAR SKIES...THEN PROPAGATE WESTWARD TOWARD THE
PHOENIX AREA. WINDS ALOFT ARENT NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WHICH IS A BIT OF A MITIGATING FACTOR...BUT 10-15KTS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP STORMS MIGRATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FELT
IT PRUDENT TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN
THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE ENTIRE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES NOTED UPSTREAM. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THINGS THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY ONCE THINGS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TUESDAY...
OTHERWISE...THE AIRMASS HAS NOW MOISTENED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS ALL
THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...BEHIND THE EXITING INVERTED TROF...MODELS FORECAST UPPER
LEVEL 300/250 MB HIGH CENTERS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST AZ BY LATE
TODAY...THEN SHIFT TOWARD FLAGSTAFF ON TUESDAY. MONSOON RESEARCH HAS
SHOWN WHEN 300/250 MB HIGH CENTERS COINCIDE...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
FAVORS THE EAST THROUGH SOUTH FLANKS OF THE ANTI-CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...LARGE CONVECTIVE STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY MOVING
OUTFLOWS AND CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE OUTFLOWS WILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF DESCENDING INTO THE LOWER CENTRAL DESERTS BY EVENING...
INCLUDING PHOENIX AND CASA GRANDE. THEREFORE EVENING PRECIP
PROBABILITIES WILL BE ELEVATED AGAIN TODAY. DITTO ON TUESDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER DUE TO INCREASED HUMIDITY
AND CLOUDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MODELING THE LIGHT UPPER LEVEL
WIND REGIME DURING THE SUMMER-TIME...THIS FAR OUT THEY SUGGEST BROAD
QUASI-STABILIZING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. AT
THE SAME TIME...MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND FROM THE
WEST...ALL RESULTING IN AN END TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ZONE 24 SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY
EAST OF PHOENIX WED THROUGH FRI.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
MODELS FORECAST A RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE FROM MEXICO THIS
PERIOD. A FEW WEAK NORTHWARD UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS FROM MEXICO
ARE POSSIBLE...AND ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS TO THE LOWER CENTRAL AZ DESERTS AND
MOUNTAINS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
DEEP PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...FIRST IN THE
FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT`S STORMS STILL BKN-OVC AOA
15KFT FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS. EARLY AM WINDS TO KEEP VARIABLE
HEADINGS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT SPEEDS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING WHILE DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SCATTER OUT. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THEY WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE METRO
AREA. STORM ACTIVITY COULD START A BIT EARLIER THAN 15/00Z...LIKE WE
SAW ON SUNDAY...WITH STORM COVERAGE STARTING TO FILL IN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY 14/22Z. COULD SEE SOUTHERLY STORM OUTFLOWS
INTO THE AREA AFTER 15/00Z...WITH AT LEAST HEDGED VCTS LINGERING
UNTIL LATE INTO THE EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THICK DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
HEADINGS WILL HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH ELEVATED AFTN GUSTS OF
20-25KTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS IN ARIZONA WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IF ANY
OF IT WILL REACH THE WESTERN TERMINALS LATER INTO THE EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND DEBRIS CLOUDS BKN-OVC AOA 15KFT FOR
KIPL AND KBLH IS LIKELY LATE INTO THE EVENING. WITH VCSH...OVERNIGHT
WINDS MAY BE VARIABLE IN NATURE WITH THE PASSING SHOWERS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AIR WILL ALREADY BE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE DISTRICT TUESDAY...SPREADING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CNTRL ARIZONA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OVER THE LOWER DESERTS MAY
FALL AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH GOOD RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RELEGATED BACK TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDING GILA COUNTY...WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
GUSTS...THOUGH SOME STRONGER GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN GILA COUNTY. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A
RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION SOMETIME AFTER
SUNDAY...WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WHEN THE DEEPEST PROFILE WILL
BE OVER THE DISTRICTS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
946 PM MST SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY...LIKELY LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VERY ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. CONVECTION BEGAN
FIRING OVER THE RIM AND IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GOOD STRONG MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW HELPED TO PUSH THE STORMS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS.
STORMS INITIALLY APPEARED SINGLE CELLULAR BUT BECAME MORE ORGANIZED
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSED. STORMS THAT PASSED THROUGH THE PHOENIX
METROPOLITAN AREA PUT DOWN DAMAGING WINDS AND EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
CURRENTLY A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS PUSHING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND HAS AN ASSOCIATED LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS. SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY PUSHING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MCC ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA BORDER.
THE HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL...LIKE LAST EVENING...APPEARS TO HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPING ACTIVITY...BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION.
THIS MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER WAVE OF STORMS PUSHING INTO OUR CENTRAL
DESERTS FROM THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MCC APPEARS TO BE
DRIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SOME NEW STORMS IN
YUMA COUNTY AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
WITH THAT IN MIND...MADE SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OUR
POPS...INCREASING VIRTUALLY ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT AND EXTENDING HIGHER
POPS TO ALL THE WAY WEST TO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY...QPF...AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GRIDS.
AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY TO NIGHT MAY MEAN A SOMEWHAT LESS ACTIVE DAY
TOMORROW. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY DO SO IN AREAS THAT
WEREN`T AS WORKED OVER TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN JUL 13 2014
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A REMNANT MCV...AND ISNT WASTING ANY TIME MOVING TO
THE WEST. STRONG WINDS /BY MONSOON STANDARDS/ OF 15-20KTS WERE NOTED
IN THE 700-500MB LAYER THIS MORNING ON REGIONAL UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
AND THIS CERTAINLY WILL HELP STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...PWATS REMAIN AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS
APPROX 130-140 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR MID JULY. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE
DESERTS...THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS INDICATING AROUND 500 J/KG MLCAPE WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP.
STILL LOOKING AT A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOING TO STICK WITH THE IDEA THAT STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE DESERTS LATER TODAY BASED ON LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED INSTABILITY TRENDS. HRRR...LOCAL WRF
ENSEMBLE...AND RAP ALL INDICATE STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
METRO...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED POPS INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
METRO...COLLIDING OUTFLOWS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN FORCING
MECHANISM. WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN DESERTS SOUTH OF PHOENIX.
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS PWATS WILL CLIMB
SUBSTANTIALLY...REACHING AROUND 2 INCHES BY 12Z MONDAY. AS
ALWAYS...HOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RECOVER AFTER THIS SURGE...HOW
CLOUDY IT WILL BE...ETC...WILL DICTATE JUST HOW ACTIVE THINGS WILL
BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. A SAMPLING OF NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MIX OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS AMONG RECENT RUNS OF HI-RES MODELS AND 4KM
NAM IS THAT STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG THE RIM AND PROPAGATE INTO
THE DESERTS. WITH MLCAPE FORECASTS AROUND 1000 J/KG...STARTING TO
LOOK MORE PROMISING FOR STORMS ACROSS THE METRO. STORMS ON MONDAY
WILL MAINLY PRESENT A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH SUN WILL MANAGE TO PEAK
THROUGH THE CLOUDS WHICH COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DOWN TREND THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL STILL PEAK OUT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH SOME
PLACES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BREAKING
THE 110 DEGREE MARK. AFTER THE SURGE OF MOISTURE TONIGHT...MONDAY/S
HIGHS WILL TAKE A BIG HIT...POSSIBLY NOT EVEN BREAKING 100 ACROSS
SOME LOWER DESERT SPOTS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH STORM AND CLOUD
COVERAGE THERE ENDS UP BEING.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ARIZONA INTO
TUESDAY...BUT MODELS ARE NOW POINTING TOWARD AN EARLIER TIMEFRAME
FOR DRY AIR WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF OUR WESTERN ZONES DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WORKING IN...BUT SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS ARIZONA.
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN ON TUESDAY WHILE SETTLING SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA OR
NORTHERN MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHIFT WILL SWITCH OUR FLOW OUT
THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL QUICKLY SCOUR OUT MOISTURE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE
EUROPEAN AND THE GFS ARE POINTING AT A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND FOR
LATE THIS WEEK...LIKELY RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE MONSOON ACTIVITY
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE LIKELY SOUTHWESTERLY DRYING FLOW...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
QUITE A BIT STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE DRIEST DAY WILL END UP BEING
EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...BEFORE SOME MOISTURE LIKELY STARTS
SEEPING BACK INTO OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GET A
BUMP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT FORECAST 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ONLY IN
THE 590-592DM RANGE WHICH WOULD GIVE US HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE PHOENIX
METROPOLITAN AREA...THOUGH AN OCCASIONAL STORM COULD MOVE INTO THE
VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT COULD
BECOME VARIABLE AND GUSTY AS OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS MOVE INTO THE
AREA.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES WEST ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN YUMA AND IMPERIAL COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH ABOUT 10 KTS BUT COULD BECOME VARIABLE AND
GUSTY IF OUTFLOW FROM STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AIR WILL ALREADY BE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE DISTRICT TUESDAY...SPREADING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CNTRL ARIZONA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RELEGATED TO GILA COUNTY...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS...THOUGH SOME STRONGER GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN GILA COUNTY. WITH THE DRYING
TREND...MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER TEENS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MCLANE/LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
853 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR DISTRICT. SOME DRYING OF THE AIR
MASS ALOFT IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THUS A
REDUCTION IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AND AN END TO ANY PRECIP
CHANCES. THE MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE HOWEVER ALONG WITH A MODEST COOLING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...LATEST RADAR IMAGE SHOWS
SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER THE SIERRAS
MOVING WEST TOWARDS ALAMEDA AND CONTRA COSTA COUNTIES. THIS HAS
BEEN PICKED UP WELL BY THE HRRR MODEL. THE MODELS ARE NOT
FORECASTING ANY QPF SO ONLY LIGHT SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED AT MOST.
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUING CHANCE OF
MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE SFO BAY AREA POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT
SPRINKLES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY.
A COOLER AIRMASS ALOFT MOVED OVER THE DISTRICT TODAY AS THE 925 MB
TEMPERATURES COOLED FROM 31 CELSIUS YESTERDAY TO AROUND 24 TODAY.
AS A RESULT MANY NORTH AND EAST BAY INLAND AREAS WERE AS MUCH AS
10-15 DEGREES COOLER. ON THE OTHER HAND LESS CLOUDINESS IN THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR ALLOWED THOSE AREAS TO WARM UP A FEW DEGREES.
AND THE SOUTHEAST FLOW HELPED PUSH TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY AREA AND ADJACENT VALLEYS UP AS MUCH AS 10-15
DEGREES. IT MAY HAVE FELT MUGGIER TODAY AS DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE DISTRICT.
STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST TONIGHT AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY
SWITCHES TO SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL PRETTY MUCH CUT OFF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AFTER WEDNESDAY. MARINE AIR WILL BRING COOLING
AND LESS MUGGINESS TO THE COAST AND THE SFO BAY AREA ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IN THE EXTENDED...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ASIDE FROM THE COASTAL STRATUS...AND COOLER
THAN SEASONAL NORM TEMPS INLAND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AND THEN IT LOOKS LIKE A WARMING TREND FOR NEXT WEEK AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS WESTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA WITH WARMING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. IN THIS REGARD WILL NOTE
THAT LATEST ECMWF RUN ACTUALLY TAKES THE HEIGHT AT ITS CENTER ALL
THE WAY UP TO 601 DM BY 18Z NEXT TUES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVERHEAD THIS EVENING WHILE STRATUS PERSISTS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. STRATUS IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INLAND LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS AREA TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MODERATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BETWEEN 06Z-09Z OVER AREA
TERMINALS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...PATCHY CIGS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY NEAR THE TERMINAL.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER AREA
TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TEMPO CIGS POSSIBLE OVER
KMRY BETWEEN 02Z-06Z THIS EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:37 AM PDT TUESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL PASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: W BLIER/W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
744 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
THERE REMAIN SOME CELLS OVER THE SRN PART OF THE FORECAST...MAINLY
MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. THIS AREA HAS DEEPER MOISTURE AND IS
MORE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS ALLOWING WEAK EMBEDDED
WAVES TO PRODUCE SOME LIFT AND INSTABILITY. THIS AREA MAY SEE WEAK
CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO PICK
OUT ANY PARTICULAR WAVES ON EITHER SATELLITE IMAGERY OR THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. ANY ACTIVITY OVER NRN AREAS SHOULD
DECREASE OVER NIGHT.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY. THIS TIME SPREADING
FARTHER NORTH. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SOME THE STRONGER
CELLS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. 20
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WET
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING A DRYING TREND AND
LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS.
SHORT TERM...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWAT
VALUES ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS RANGING FROM OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NV TO NEAR OR ABOVE 0.80 INCHES IN THE RENO-TAHOE AREA.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED CONVECTION TO FIRE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON IN MONO COUNTY WHERE STORM CELLS WERE ALREADY
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS STORMS
DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH, THE HRRR SHOWED STORMS IN MINERAL COUNTY
AND ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT PRODUCING LARGE SCALE OUTFLOW THAT
PUSHES NORTH INTO THE BASIN AND RANGE AND SOUTHWARD INTO MONO
COUNTY. THE NAM/GFS WERE INDICATING A BROADER SCALE SIGNAL THAT
SUPPORTS THE HRRR. THIS WOULD KEEP FLASH FLOOD THREAT HIGH INTO
THIS EVENING FOR MONO COUNTY. IN THE BASIN AND RANGE, STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WOULD ACCOMPANY WEAKER STORM CELLS AS
OUTFLOW PUSHES NORTH.
WE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
IT WILL PROBABLY BE MOSTLY SHOWERS GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING. PWAT
VALUES REMAIN HIGH WED-THU (NEAR OR ABOVE ONE INCH ALONG THE
SIERRA) AND MORE STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH GENERALLY SLOW STORM
MOTIONS. CLOUDS FROM TONIGHTS SYSTEM WILL LIMIT CONVECTION NORTH
AND EAST OF RENO BUT SKIES SHOULD BREAK BY MIDDAY FURTHER SOUTH TO
ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG THE TERRAIN. POPS WERE
INCREASED TO LIKELY IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA WHERE MODEL
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH.
ON THURSDAY, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXPANDS NORTHWARD AS WEAK
UPPER JET POSITIONED ALONG THE NV-ID BORDER PLACES WESTERN NV AND
NORTHERN SIERRA IN AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BE MORE SCATTERED TO ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING AND GOOD STORM
INITIATION MIDDAY THURSDAY. POPS WERE BUMPED UP AGAIN FROM THE
SIERRA FRONT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA WHERE STORMS WILL
BE MOST WIDESPREAD. STRENGTH OF STORMS OVERALL WILL BE STRONGER ON
THURSDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. HOHMANN
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FOCUS ON THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYING TREND AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEARER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. GENERAL AGREEMENT IS
FOUND AMONGST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN SHIFTING LARGE SCALE RIDGING
EASTWARD WITH A BROAD TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE WEST COAST.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
REMAINING MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. BY SATURDAY, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO BE REPLACED BY DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT ENOUGH REMAINS TO PROVIDE
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF HWY 50.
BY SUNDAY, TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE WEST COAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AN ENHANCED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING WINDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA NORTH OF I-80. A BIT TOO EARLY TO
TALK ANY SPECIFICS ON FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS BUT THE OVERALL TREND
WILL LEND TOWARDS DRYING AND INCREASING WINDS. THE STRENGTH OF WINDS
WILL RELY LARGELY ON HOW FAR INLAND THE UPPER TROUGH CAN PENETRATE
AND THE CURRENT 12Z RUNS KEEP RIDGING STRONGER FURTHER WEST ACROSS
OUR REGION THAN THE LAST 00Z RUNS. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN
INCREASED ENSEMBLE SPREADS IN THE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH/RIDGE
WHICH LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. FUENTES
AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS, OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS, AND
SMALL HAIL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z THIS AFTERNOON EVENING,
BEST CHANCES FOR KMMH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z AND FOR
KTVL/KTRK/KRNO/KCXP THRU 02Z. MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
SUSANVILLE/GERLACH THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
FOR WED/THU, STORMS FOR ALL AREAS, BUT BEST THREATS FROM KTRK-KRNO
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING. PEAK TIMES SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY.
FUENTES/WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING NVZ005.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING NVZ002-003.
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ070-071.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ072-073.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
509 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR DISTRICT...AND BROUGHT A FEW SPRINKLES
AND LIGHT SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY. SOME DRYING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THUS A REDUCTION IN THE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AND AN END TO ANY PRECIP CHANCES. THE MARINE
LAYER AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER ALONG
WITH A MODEST COOLING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:25 PM PDT TUESDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS EARLIER TODAY ALONG
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS. IT HAS NOW PROGRESSED OUT
TO THE NORTHWEST...THOUGH CURRENT KMUX REFLECTIVITY DATA STILL SHOW
A FEW (ALBEIT ELEVATED) RETURNS NEAR THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF OUR
AREA AND WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LARGEST ASSOCIATED
PRECIP TOTAL THUS FAR NOTED WAS 0.02" AT THE BIG SUR RAWS SITE.
MID-AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND THE BAYS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
70S...AND IN THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS. IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY...IT`S AN INTERESTING MIX OF WARMING AND COOLING...RESULTING
FROM A COMBINATION OF DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...A SWITCH IN
THE COASTAL SURFACE WINDS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY...AND
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE SHIFTING NORTHWARD. AS OF 2 PM...SANTA
ROSA WAS RUNNING 13 DEGS COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND LIVERMORE
DOWN 11 DEGS...WHILE MONTEREY IS 14 DEGS WARMER AND PINNACLES NATL
PARK 13 DEGS WARMER. ALSO OF SOME NOTE ARE THE ELEVATED DEW
POINTS. 2 PM TD OBS FROM BOTH KSFO AND KPAO ARE 64 DEGS...A BIT ON
THE MUGGY SIDE BY BAY AREA STANDARDS. MARINE STRATUS HAS HUNG IN
ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM
AROUND PIGEON PT SOUTHWARD.
IN THE SHORTER TERM...MODELS ARE WIDELY DIVERGENT ON THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOONAL FLOW...WHICH IS NOW BRINGING SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA AND WITH SOME ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALREADY STARTING TO SPILL WESTWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL VALLEY. NAM AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT ARE CONSISTENT WITH
NON-NEGLIGIBLE CHANCE OF PRECIP CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF
OUTPUT INDICATE IT STAYING WELL TO OUR EAST AND NORTH. HAVE GONE
WITH A COMPROMISE FORECAST...LOW POP VALUES BUT INCLUDING MENTION
OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF OUR AREA. EVEN IN THE NAM AND HRRR SOLUTIONS...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES APPEAR TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE...BUT WILL NOTE THAT CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...MARINE STRATUS WILL EXTEND BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
IS IN FACT ALREADY BEGINNING TO EXTEND DOWN THE SALINAS VALLEY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGS
COOLER THAN THOSE TODAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...YET AGAIN HAVE NAM (AND HERE PRETTY MUCH THE NAM ALONE)
SHOWING ANOTHER POSSIBLE PULSE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS
FROM THE SIERRA...BUT WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE. SO AT THIS POINT
NOT THINKING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE
MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH
SOME DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SO ANOTHER SEVERAL DEGS OF
COOLING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS.
IN THE EXTENDED...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ASIDE FROM THE COASTAL STRATUS...AND COOLER
THAN SEASONAL NORM TEMPS INLAND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AND THEN IT LOOKS LIKE A WARMING TREND FOR NEXT WEEK AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS WESTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA WITH WARMING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. IN THIS REGARD WILL NOTE
THAT LATEST ECMWF RUN ACTUALLY TAKES THE HEIGHT AT ITS CENTER ALL
THE WAY UP TO 601 DM BY 18Z NEXT TUES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVERHEAD THIS EVENING WHILE STRATUS PERSISTS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. STRATUS IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INLAND LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS AREA TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MODERATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BETWEEN 06Z-09Z OVER AREA
TERMINALS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...PATCHY CIGS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY NEAR THE TERMINAL.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER AREA
TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TEMPO CIGS POSSIBLE OVER
KMRY BETWEEN 02Z-06Z THIS EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:37 AM PDT TUESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL PASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
416 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES OVER THE REGION AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE CREST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA...POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILL AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO DOUBLE DIGITS OVER THE
REGION BY TOMORROW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN KERN COUNTY
DESERT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
RIM FIRE BURN SCAR HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE BURN AREA. HAVE
THEREFORE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RIM FIRE BURN
SCAR.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA UNTIL 04Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 245 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAM INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST SHOW AS MUCH AS 1.75 INCHES OF PRECIP-WATER AT
12 UTC (5 AM PDT). CLIMO VALUES FROM UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS SHOW
THESE VALUES REACHING NEAR THE MAX PRECIP-WATER VALUES FOR MID-
JULY. THEREFORE...THE CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AFFECTED AREAS IS MINIMAL TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SIERRA NEVADA IN AREAS WHERE MESO-SCALE MODELS PLACED IT THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOWING THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE HRRR MODEL AND EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD CLOSER TO YOSEMITE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT
RANGE ENSEMBLE (EVEN STORM SCALE ENSEMBLES) SUPPORT THE TREND OF
SLOWLY SHIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE
BURN AREA OF THE RIM FIRE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS THIS AFTERNOON. CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW
VERY SLOW MOTION WITH THIS AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION WHICH INCREASES
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AROUND THE YOSEMITE AREA.
WHILE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT THE ONGOING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE HRRR 1KM-AGL
REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT ONLY GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE
MODEL DOES NOT TERMINATE CONVECTION THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND
POSSIBILITY CONTINUES IT INTO THE EARLY DAWN HOURS. IN ADDITION...
ECMWF/GFS40 SHOWING ONLY A VERY SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTION /LI-CAPE
WISE/ WITH THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST BECOMING CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
YET...EVEN WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE SURGING THROUGH
THE AREA OBSERVED AND MODEL PRECIP-WATER IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF
AS YUMA SHOWS LOWER VALUES THEN LAS VEGAS. THEREFORE...WHILE
WEDNESDAY MAY BE VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE
LESS COVERAGE OVER THE DISTRICT AS THE BULK OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY SHIFT
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW FOR DIMINISHED THUNDERSTORM THREATS.
WHILE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL EXIST
ON SATURDAY...LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL KEEP IT CONFINED TO
THE HIGH COUNTY OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.
A DEEP TROF IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN TOWARD THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL SHIFT THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND STOP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEK. YET...WITH TROF WILL ALSO ALLOW THE RIDGE
TO AMPLIFY FOR ANOTHER WARMING TREND. AFTER A MINOR COOL DOWN
LATER THIS WEEK...WILL SEE WARMING (AND ABOVE 100 DEG-F) BY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 16 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-15 111:1972 83:1975 81:1984 54:1905
KFAT 07-16 111:1925 83:1958 80:1984 54:1905
KFAT 07-17 114:1925 78:1987 80:1984 56:1987
KBFL 07-15 114:1930 87:2011 85:1917 53:1905
KBFL 07-16 115:1925 84:1958 81:2010 52:1899
KBFL 07-17 114:1925 82:1987 81:2005 53:1905
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...MOLINA
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...WP
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1052 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
REFLECTING INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN MONSOON FLOW. CURRENT
RADAR DEPICTS SOME LIGHT RETURNS MOVING WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE HRRR PRECIP FIELDS SOMEWHAT
CAPTURE THIS AREA AND TRACK IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FROM MONTEREY BAY TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF SCATTERED SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CURRENTLY NO LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED
IN THE REGION. TT AND MUCAPE VALUES ARE VERY MARGINAL SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT NOT ANTICIPATING LIGHTNING TODAY. OTHER
UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT EXTREMELY WARM CONDITIONS IN THE
HILLS. MANY AREAS ABOVE 1500 FEET ELEVATION BARELY DROPPED BELOW
80 DEGREES LAST NIGHT. 12Z KOAK SOUNDING SHOWS THIS WELL WITH A
WARM NOSE AROUND 925MB OF +31C.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT MONDAY...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER NEVADA THIS MORNING WITH VERY
WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THIS WARM AIR MASS
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S THIS MORNING IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...THE
MARINE LAYER IS BELOW 1000 FT AT THIS HOUR ALONG WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS HAS KEPT STRATUS FROM FORMING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OVER HALF MOON
BAY AND PORTIONS OF THE MONTEREY PENINSULA.
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OFF THE SURFACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY WARM BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING MOST LOCATIONS TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. MEANWHILE...AS THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND COULD HELP INHIBIT MAXIMUM WARMING. CONTINUE TO
BELIEVE THE NEEDED LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO PRODUCE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. HAVING SAID THAT...IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY
AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES GIVEN THE INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.
SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE MARINE INFLUENCE TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
STRATUS TO SPREAD INLAND. IN ADDITION...A DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT
WILL RETURN AND SCOUR OUT THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH CLOUD STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE REGION TODAY. LATEST
MODELS KEEP A VERY SHALLOW/COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER FOR TOMORROW
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...ONLY IMPACT WILL BE FOR MONTEREY BAY AS
CIGS WILL BE PATCHY AROUND THE GOLDEN GATE. CONF IS MEDIUM-HIGH.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. LOW
CIGS RETURN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:48 AM PDT MONDAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NORTH OF POINT
REYES. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
853 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
REFLECTING INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN MONSOON FLOW. CURRENT
RADAR DEPICTS SOME LIGHT RETURNS MOVING WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE HRRR PRECIP FIELDS SOMEWHAT
CAPTURE THIS AREA AND TRACK IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FROM MONTEREY BAY TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF SCATTERED SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CURRENTLY NO LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED
IN THE REGION. TT AND MUCAPE VALUES ARE VERY MARGINAL SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT NOT ANTICIPATING LIGHTNING TODAY. OTHER
UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT EXTREMELY WARM CONDITIONS IN THE
HILLS. MANY AREAS ABOVE 1500 FEET ELEVATION BARELY DROPPED BELOW
80 DEGREES LAST NIGHT. 12Z KOAK SOUNDING SHOWS THIS WELL WITH A
WARM NOSE AROUND 925MB OF +31C.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT MONDAY...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER NEVADA THIS MORNING WITH VERY
WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THIS WARM AIR MASS
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S THIS MORNING IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...THE
MARINE LAYER IS BELOW 1000 FT AT THIS HOUR ALONG WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS HAS KEPT STRATUS FROM FORMING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OVER HALF MOON
BAY AND PORTIONS OF THE MONTEREY PENINSULA.
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OFF THE SURFACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY WARM BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING MOST LOCATIONS TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. MEANWHILE...AS THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND COULD HELP INHIBIT MAXIMUM WARMING. CONTINUE TO
BELIEVE THE NEEDED LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO PRODUCE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. HAVING SAID THAT...IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY
AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES GIVEN THE INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.
SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE MARINE INFLUENCE TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
STRATUS TO SPREAD INLAND. IN ADDITION...A DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT
WILL RETURN AND SCOUR OUT THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUD PATCHES ON THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT THIS MORNING. AREA SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIGHT W-NW BUT THERE IS A DEVELOPING SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME ON S-SE MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS BAY AREA TO SOCAL.
MID LEVEL SATURATED AIR CAN BECOME QUICKLY UNSTABLE IF SUFFICIENT
LIFT IS PRESENT AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HARD TO
SAY WHAT WILL BECOME OF THIS LAYER AS THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OFFSETTING THE INSTABILITY. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH ABOUT FORECAST TO PLACE VCSH OR VCTS IN 12Z TAFS BUT PILOTS
AND DISPATCHERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE CHANGEABLE WEATHER
TODAY INCLUDING OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PATCHY IFR EARLY. KMRY REPORTS 400
FEET BUT IT`S THIN...WE CAN SEE THE MOON THROUGH THE LOW CLOUD
COVER. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 08:41 AM PDT MONDAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NORTH OF POINT
REYES. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
436 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
SHOWERS ENDING...AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE IN THE DAY INTO
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
VERMONT. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW INCLUDED ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN AND
CENTRAL TACONICS UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY...
AS OF 435 PM EDT...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH OVER ERN PA AND THE DELMARVA REGION.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED IN SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A
PAIR OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE
FCST AREA. THESE IMPULSES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
ONE SHORT-WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL-ERN PA AND THE DELMARVA REGION...
WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT-WAVE OVER ERN KY AND THE PAN HANDLE OF VA.
THESE DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE SRN THIRD OR HALF OF THE FCST
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS HAS
THE BEST MLCAPES OF 500+ J/KG OVER THE SRN EXTREME WITH SBCAPES
OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE 0-6 K BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN AROUND 40
KTS. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK. ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITHOUT A STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM OVER MOST OF THE AREA
FURTHER NORTH FOR THE LATE PM AND EVENING WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AFTER 22Z...WE HAVE KEPT SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
DOWNPOURS...AS THE LEAD IMPULSE ALONG A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY GETS
CLOSER TO THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT. THESE AREAS ARE IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS /JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION/ AND THE
BERKSHIRES FOR POTENTIAL TRAINING STORMS...INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES...AND SATURATED SOILS FROM YESTERDAY. SRN VT COULD ALSO GET
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT VERY LITTLE FELL YESTERDAY. FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE TOMORROW-TOMORROW NIGHT THERE.
PWATS WILL BE ON THE RISE BEFORE LOWERING CONSIDERABLY TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH LAST NIGHT. PWATS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE
1.5 TO 2.0+ IN RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WITH SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE SULTRY IN THE STICKY
AIR MASS WITH GENERALLY MID 60S TO NEAR 70F WITH SOME SPOTTY U50S
TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BTWN 12Z-18Z OVER W-CNTRL NY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OF 100-120 KTS REMAINING UPSTREAM OVER ERN OH...WRN PA AND
WRN NY.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LOOKS TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WHERE WITH SOME SFC HEATING AN IMPRESSIVE
SBCAPE AXIS OF 1000-2000 J/KG SETS UP WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 40-50 KTS ACCORDING TO THE GFS. THE NAM HAS LESS
INSTABILITY WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG. A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OF
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE THAT COULD ORIENT INTO A
LINE IN THE SW FLOW WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STILL LOOK WEAK AT LESS THAN 6 C/KM. ALSO THE 0-1 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS OVER THE SRN EXTREME WITH LOW
LCL HEIGHTS. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS
AND AN ISOLD TORNADO TOO. AGAIN...THIS WOULD BE IN THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT CORRIDOR.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BE IN PLACE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AN IMPRESSIVE THETA-E RIDGE OF
330-338 K WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA AT H850. SOME TRAINING
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE S/SW FLOW AS THE H850 FLOW INCREASES
TO 25-35 KTS AT H850 SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXPANDED INTO SRN VT WITH CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE LATEST RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE GRAPHIC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCEEDING THE FFG VALUES FOR ALL OF WRN NEW ENGLAND PRIOR TO
00Z/WED...AS WELL AS SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN
THE MID 70S TO L80S.
TUESDAY NIGHT...A PERIOD OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK
SFC WAVE MAY MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ON THE TIMING. THE THETA-E RIDGE LINGERS THE
LONGEST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST OF 335 K AND HIGHER
AT H850. STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN MAY OCCUR OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF SRN NY. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS WERE
GRADUALLY REDUCED FROM NW TO SE DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U50S OVER THE WRN MOST ZONES WITH 60S
FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS EASTWARD.
WED-WED NIGHT...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY IN THE MORNING...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS MAY POP UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING. DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. MAY TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH M70S TO NEAR 80F IN MANY OF THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER WX WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F...EXCEPT U40S AND
L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE WEATHER. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION AND
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN FAR WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE
LOWER 80S...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A CONSENSUS IN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE THAT UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AND GREAT LAKES AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE
AS THE THE TIMING OF THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT...AND THIS FAR OUT...CANNOT GET TO SPECIFIC. SO...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL INCREASE COVERAGE OF RAIN TONIGHT...THEN THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING
BEFORE A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TOWARD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION...SOME SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING NEAR KPOU...WITH ONE LONE ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER NORTH OF
KALB. THE MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT KPOU WHERE THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...ENDING SOMETIME
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRUSH
KPSF LATE TONIGHT...TOWARD OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. KALB AND KGFL
COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SO
ACKNOWLEDGING VCSH THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...OVERNIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST DOWN TO THE MVFR LEVEL...BUT LESS CERTAIN
ABOUT IFR...SO NOT INDICATING IFR AT THIS TIME. AFTER 13Z...
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT A BROKEN CEILING COULD
DEVELOP JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET BY LATE MORNING. NEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY VERY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...SO INDICATING VCSH AT ALL SITES AFTER 16Z.
WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...UP TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...LESS THAN 6 KT TONIGHT...AND 6
KT TO 10 KT TOMORROW. OF COURSE WINDS COULD BE GUSTIER IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
SHOWERS ENDING...AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE IN THE DAY INTO
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT 85 TO 100 PERCENT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND ONLY LOWER TO 55 TO 85 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
TACONICS...AND ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA ALREADY RECEIVED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-3+
INCHES YESTERDAY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SE CATSKILLS...AND NW CT. AN ADDITIONAL 1.5 TO 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WATCH AREA.
NO MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD AT THIS TIME...BUT
PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC BASIN MAY GET IN THE ALERT STAGE.
THIS REGION WILL ALSO REMAIN IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO DEEPER
MOISTURE...WITH PERSISTENT PWAT/S NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
ALSO...MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WATCH AREA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES
OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE. SOME RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED ONE INCH/HOUR.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...WITH LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS MOST AT RISK.
OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST. IF THE AXIS OF MOST PERSISTENT
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS FURTHER N AND W...THEN THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER IN TIME.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK...AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS
TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ058>061-
063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
140 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR FAIR AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION FROM 2 PM EDT MON THROUGH 6 AM EDT WED...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE FORECAST AREA WAS IN A BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH OR WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
LAST NIGHT. THE PWATS FELL CLOSE TO AN 1 INCH IN KALB...WHEREAS THE
12Z KOKX SOUNDING STILL HAS PWAT VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES /1.92
INCHES/ ON ITS 12Z SOUNDING. DESPITE THIS DRY AIR...A RETURN TO THE
HIGHER PWAT VALUES IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE SFC
DWPTS STILL REMAIN IN THE M60S TO NEAR 70F IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.
THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE TEMPS HAVE NOT RISEN WELL INTO THE 80S YET...AND
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD HAVE BEEN MADE. TEMPS WERE RAISED
A FEW DEGREES FROM KALB NORTHWARD WHERE MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED.
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A PAIR OF IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR
LATE THIS PM AND TONIGHT. ONE IS MOVING ACROSS SW PA AND NRN
WV...WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE OVER KY. THESE DISTURBANCES
MAY IMPACT THE SRN THIRD OR HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS HAS THE BEST MLCAPES OF
500+ J/KG OVER THE SRN EXTREME WITH SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG. THE 0-6
K BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN AROUND 40 KTS. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE WEAK. ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITHOUT A STRONG
FOCUSING MECHANISM OVER MOST OF THE AREA IN THE LATE PM WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HOWEVER...OVER THE SRN TIER AFTER
21Z...WE HAVE KEPT SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE DOWNPOURS...AS THE
LEAD IMPULSE ALONG A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER. A NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOX WAS PUT UP JUST SOUTH OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THESE AREAS ARE CURRENTLY IN A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS /JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION/ AND THE BERKSHIRES FOR POTENTIAL TRAINING STORMS...INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES...AND SATURATED SOILS FROM YESTERDAY.
MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S AND SOME SPOTTY
U80S IN THE VALLEYS... AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM ALBANY AND
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. TO THE N AND W...DEWPOINTS MAY FALL INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...BEFORE RISING ONCE AGAIN TOWARD SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF A RETREATING SFC TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN
AREAS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCE AGAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE TRAINING AND/OR
BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. LATER TONIGHT...THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DECREASE...ALTHOUGH SOME MAY
PERSIST...AND OR DEVELOP TO THE N AND W OF ALBANY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. IT
WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
60S...PERHAPS HOLDING NEAR OR ABOVE 70 IN SOME VALLEYS.
TUESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE QUITE AN ACTIVE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO POSSIBLE LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVE
KINEMATICS...INCLUDING THE REGION BECOMING PLACED CLOSER TO THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET TO THE NORTHWEST MAY
OVERCOME THIS LIMITATION. BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS...ESP WITHIN AND
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY COULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER STORM
ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE ROTATION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR DISCRETE CONVECTIVE CELLS TO DEVELOP
INITIALLY...BEFORE CONGEALING/MERGING INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
SO...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CLEARLY NEED TO BE WATCHED. IN
ADDITION...PWAT/S WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.75-2 INCH RANGE...ESP
ACROSS S/E AREAS...SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A THREAT INTO TUE
EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN MOST
AREAS...BUT SHOULD CONVECTION HOLD OFF AT ALL UNTIL MID OR LATE
AFTERNOON...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TUE NT...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WAVE MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...POTENTIALLY FURTHER INCREASING
THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESP FOR AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THESE AREAS.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
MIDNIGHT...WHILE POTENTIALLY LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS UNTIL
AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK WED. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.
WED-WED NT...SOME SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO WED AM ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. THEN...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING W OF THE
REGION...ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RETURN TO FAIR
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY REACHING
AROUND 80 IN VALLEYS...AND 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST
AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. THE
EXCEPTION LOOK TO BE SUNDAY...OTHERWISE HAVE POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE OR DRY.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FA ON FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...EXCEPT FOR SOME
UPPER 60S ACRS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE BELOW
NORMAL AS WELL AS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL INCREASE COVERAGE OF RAIN TONIGHT...THEN THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING
BEFORE A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TOWARD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION...SOME SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING NEAR KPOU...WITH ONE LONE ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER NORTH OF
KALB. THE MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT KPOU WHERE THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...ENDING SOMETIME
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRUSH
KPSF LATE TONIGHT...TOWARD OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. KALB AND KGFL
COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SO
ACKNOWLEDGING VCSH THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...OVERNIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST DOWN TO THE MVFR LEVEL...BUT LESS CERTAIN
ABOUT IFR...SO NOT INDICATING IFR AT THIS TIME. AFTER 13Z...
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT A BROKEN CEILING COULD
DEVELOP JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET BY LATE MORNING. NEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY VERY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...SO INDICATING VCSH AT ALL SITES AFTER 16Z.
WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...UP TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...LESS THAN 6 KT TONIGHT...AND 6
KT TO 10 KT TOMORROW. OF COURSE WINDS COULD BE GUSTIER IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NUMEROUS SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR FAIR AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SOUTHERN
TACONICS...NW CT AND WESTERN MA...
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA ALREADY RECEIVED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-2
INCHES SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS OF 3-4 INCHES REPORTED.
THIS REGION WILL ALSO REMAIN IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO DEEPER
MOISTURE...WITH PERSISTENT PWAT/S NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
ALSO...MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WATCH AREA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES
OF RAIN THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
POSSIBLE. SOME RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED ONE INCH/HOUR. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...WITH LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS MOST AT RISK.
OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THE AXIS
OF MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS FURTHER N AND
W...THEN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS WELL.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ058>061-
063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL/11
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
131 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR FAIR AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION FROM 2 PM EDT MON THROUGH 6 AM EDT WED...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE FORECAST WAS IN A BRIEF SUBSIDENCE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH OR WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
LAST NIGHT. THE PWATS FELL CLOSE TO AN 1 INCH IN KALB...WHEREAS
THE 12Z KOKX SOUNDING STILL HAS PWAT VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES /1.92
INCHES/ ON ITS 12Z SOUNDING. DESPITE THIS DRY AIR...A RETURN TO
THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE SFC DWPTS STILL REMAIN IN THE M60S TO NEAR 70F IN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.
THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE TEMPS HAVE NOT RISEN WELL INTO THE 80S YET...AND
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD HAVE BEEN MADE. TEMPS WERE RAISED
A FEW DEGREES FROM KALB NORTHWARD WHERE MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED.
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A PAIR OF IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR
LATE THIS PM AND TONIGHT. ONE IS MOVING ACROSS SW PA AND NRN
WV...WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE OVER KY. THESE DISTURBANCES
MAY IMPACT THE SRN THIRD OR HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS HAS THE BEST MLCAPES OF
500+ J/KG OVER THE SRN EXTREME WITH SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG. THE 0-6
K BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN AROUND 40 KTS. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE WEAK. ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITHOUT A STRONG
FOCUSING MECHANISM OVER MOST OF THE AREA IN THE LATE PM WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HOWEVER...OVER THE SRN TIER AFTER
21Z...WE HAVE KEPT SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE DOWNPOURS...AS THE
LEAD IMPULSE ALONG A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER. A NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOX WAS PUT UP JUST SOUTH OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THESE AREAS ARE CURRENTLY IN A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS /JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION/ AND THE BERKSHIRES FOR POTENTIAL TRAINING STORMS...INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES...AND SATURATED SOILS FROM YESTERDAY.
MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S AND SOME SPOTTY
U80S IN THE VALLEYS... AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM ALBANY AND
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. TO THE N AND W...DEWPOINTS MAY FALL INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...BEFORE RISING ONCE AGAIN TOWARD SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF A RETREATING SFC TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN
AREAS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCE AGAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE TRAINING AND/OR
BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. LATER TONIGHT...THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DECREASE...ALTHOUGH SOME MAY
PERSIST...AND OR DEVELOP TO THE N AND W OF ALBANY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. IT
WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
60S...PERHAPS HOLDING NEAR OR ABOVE 70 IN SOME VALLEYS.
TUESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE QUITE AN ACTIVE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO POSSIBLE LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVE
KINEMATICS...INCLUDING THE REGION BECOMING PLACED CLOSER TO THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET TO THE NORTHWEST MAY
OVERCOME THIS LIMITATION. BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS...ESP WITHIN AND
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY COULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER STORM
ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE ROTATION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR DISCRETE CONVECTIVE CELLS TO DEVELOP
INITIALLY...BEFORE CONGEALING/MERGING INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
SO...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CLEARLY NEED TO BE WATCHED. IN
ADDITION...PWAT/S WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.75-2 INCH RANGE...ESP
ACROSS S/E AREAS...SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A THREAT INTO TUE
EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN MOST
AREAS...BUT SHOULD CONVECTION HOLD OFF AT ALL UNTIL MID OR LATE
AFTERNOON...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TUE NT...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WAVE MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...POTENTIALLY FURTHER INCREASING
THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESP FOR AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THESE AREAS.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
MIDNIGHT...WHILE POTENTIALLY LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS UNTIL
AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK WED. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.
WED-WED NT...SOME SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO WED AM ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. THEN...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING W OF THE
REGION...ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RETURN TO FAIR
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY REACHING
AROUND 80 IN VALLEYS...AND 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST
AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. THE
EXCEPTION LOOK TO BE SUNDAY...OTHERWISE HAVE POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE OR DRY.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FA ON FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...EXCEPT FOR SOME
UPPER 60S ACRS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE BELOW
NORMAL AS WELL AS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
ESPECIALLY ACRS SRN AREAS. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z-14Z.
AFTER 13Z-14Z TODAY...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...BUT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE AROUND
KPOU/KPSF BUT ALL AREAS COULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
SO...ADDED VCSH AT ALL SITES.
FOR TODAY WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NUMEROUS SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR FAIR AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SOUTHERN
TACONICS...NW CT AND WESTERN MA...
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA ALREADY RECEIVED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-2
INCHES SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS OF 3-4 INCHES REPORTED.
THIS REGION WILL ALSO REMAIN IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO DEEPER
MOISTURE...WITH PERSISTENT PWAT/S NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
ALSO...MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WATCH AREA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES
OF RAIN THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
POSSIBLE. SOME RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED ONE INCH/HOUR. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...WITH LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS MOST AT RISK.
OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THE AXIS
OF MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS FURTHER N AND
W...THEN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS WELL.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ058>061-
063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL/11
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
408 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
YIELDING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. DRY AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THU AND FRI...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SAT BEFORE
THE RISK OF RAIN SUN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK. PRECIP IS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE STABLE AIR IN
PLACE. CURRENT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALONG A LINE FROM BVY TO
BDL...BELIEVE THIS LINE WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND LEAVING A
BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TOMORROW. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL DROP A GOOD AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL AS PWATS ARE STILL ABOVE 1.7 INCHES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH SHORT MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER NORTHEAST HAS SPARK SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAK BUT HOLD TOGETHER BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PWATS ARE 1.5-2 INCHES SO
A GOOD DOSING OF RAIN WILL FALL. THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATION AS
WELL AS THE REGION WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE DIDNT GET WORKED OVER BY
THE EVENING CONVECTION. THE RAP MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST
ESPECIALLY WHEN THE LLJ BEGINS TO DEVELOP. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING WITH HOW HIGH THE PWATS ARE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...LIKE A TROPICAL FEEL OUT THERE.
OTHERWISE LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S
WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND/OR EVENING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE***
***HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT***
AN INTERESTING SET UP IN PLACE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT DETAILS/TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN. APPEARS THE
MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/S AND
WHEN/WHERE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.
SOME OF OUR GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF MOST OF THE CONVECTION UNTIL VERY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WHEN THE MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND GETS THINGS GOING CLOSE TO 00Z IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.
OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS BREAKS OUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT EARLIER. WE ARE DEALING WITH A VERY
MOIST/UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND IT WON/T TAKE MUCH HEATING TO GET
SOME CONVECTION GOING. WE SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLIER
THAN SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.
OTHER THAN THE TIMING ISSUES...THE BIG UNCERTAINTY THAT NEEDS TO BE
RESOLVED IS THE AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSULATION. GIVEN PATTERN...EXPECT
TO SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND BUT A FEW PEEKS OF SUN WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE WILL HAVE 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...WE
CAN GET AWAY WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS AND STILL HAVE A SEVERE
THREAT...BUT MORE SUN WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE POTENTIAL. LOOKS LIKE
WE SHOULD SEE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOP...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF
25 TO 35 KNOTS AND PERHAPS LOCALLY OVER 40 KNOTS WHEN THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT...AND 70+ DEWPOINTS.
ALL IN ALL...DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE SHEAR
SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING. PERHAPS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL ENDS UP
IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY/SHEAR
OVERLAP...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ANYWHERE.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR HAIL WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS. IN
ADDITION...0 TO 1 KM HELICITY VALUES MAY EXCEED 100 ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S...AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
IT APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COME MORE WIDESPREAD. PWATS
ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AT 2+ INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BUT
THOUGH THERE IS MORE TIME TO GET A BETTER FEEL ON THE LOCATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TUE NIGHT INTO WED ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING
* DRY AND LESS HUMID THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* DRY WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO SAT BUT RISK OF MORE RAIN SUNDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BOTH ECMWF...GFS AND GEFS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON STRONGEST JET DYNAMICS ARRIVING TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS PA/NY INTO QUEBEC WITH
SPEEDS REACHING +3 SD! RRQ OF THIS JET MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING
THIS TIME PROVIDING ENHANCED QG FORCING FOR ASCENT. THIS INDUCES ONE
OR MORE SURFACE WAVES RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT INTO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS ENHANCES THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA. THUS STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
COMBINED WITH FRONTAL SCALE FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH PWATS UP
TO +2 SD WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH A RISK OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CT/MA AND INTO
RI TUE NIGHT INTO WED. IN ADDITION DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
INCREASES THE RISK OF BACK BUILDING CELLS ALONG WITH CONVECTION
TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA. THESE ATTRIBUTES WILL INCREASE THE RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING.
FARTHER WEST ACROSS WESTERN CT/MA...SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD EXIT
THIS REGION LATER WED WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEST TO EAST. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY/WINDY OVER CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CLIPS THIS AREA.
HOWEVER LOW LEVEL TEMP INVERSION SHOULD PRECLUDE STRONG WINDS ALOFT
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA AS T-STORMS COULD TAP INTO THE LOW
LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS DEW PTS CLIMB INTO THE L70S AND COMBINE WITH WET/SATURATED
GROUND.
WED NIGHT/THU AND FRI...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING OFFSHORE WED NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION.
HOWEVER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF NEW ENGLAND THU AND
FRI YIELDING SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER COLUMN APPEARS TOO DRY TO YIELD ANY SHOWERS...
PROBABLY JUST SOME DIURNAL CU. THUS DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI ALONG
WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AS DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE 50S.
AS FOR THE BEACHES THU...WILL HAVE TO WATCH LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY
SWELLS FROM PERSISTENT SSW WINDS THIS WEEK. THIS SHOULD YIELD A
MODEST SURF WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS ACROSS
SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES.
NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SHORT WAVE RIDGING HOLDING ON ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SAT FOR DRY
SEASONABLE WEATHER. HOWEVER THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH /WITH LOTS OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE/ APPEARS TO OVERSPREAD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH A
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ESP IN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. FOG POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW ESP
ACROSS SOUTH COAST AS WIND GUSTS ARE STILL TO HIGH...SO MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE STRATUS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...LOWERED VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT....MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE BEST SHOT MAY BE IN OUR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. BIGGEST THREATS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALLY
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AS FOR SKY/VSBYS OUTSIDE OF
PRECIPITATION VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE DURING THE DAY TUE EXCEPT
LOWER CONDITIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF MASS PIKE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TO NIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR TO IFR
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING BUT
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS KEEP CIGS
AND VSBYS NEAR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE BIGGEST THREATS BEING TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE PROB OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 08Z.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUE NIGHT AND WED...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND T-
STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.
SSW WINDS PERSIST. SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY EXIT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WED
AFTN WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING HERE TOWARD VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WED NIGHT/THU/FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS WED NIGHT WITH VFR BY MID
MORNING THU. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONTINUES THU AFTN INTO FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MANY OF THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH MAY BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET
ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS. THEREFORE...SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN
PLACE. MAY HAVE SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON MONDAY...BUT STILL
EXPECT THEM TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THEREFORE...DO NOT THINK
WILL NEED NEAR SHORE SCA HEADLINES. ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...SEAS
MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT. THEREFORE...OPTED TO JUST EXTEND THOSE SCA HEADLINES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MAY HAVE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. IN ADDITION...MORE FOG MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUE NIGHT/WED...ROUGH WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND T-STORMS CONTAINING
HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. MODEST SSW WIND OF 15-20 KT WITH
LOW RISK OF GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
WED NIGHT/THU/FRI...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WED NGT WITH IMPROVING
WEATHER/DRYING TREND THU AND LASTING INTO FRI. LEFTOVER SSW SWELL
SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SLOWLY DECAY FRI. GOOD VSBY BY MID MORNING THU
AND CONTINUING INTO FRI. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
146 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
YIELDING PERIODS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THIS TIME ALONG WITH A HEAVY
RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
200 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK. PRECIP IS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE STABLE AIR IN
PLACE. CURRENT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALONG A LINE FROM BVY TO
BDL...BELIEVE THIS LINE WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND LEAVING A
BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TOMORROW. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL DROP A GOOD AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL AS PWATS ARE STILL ABOVE 1.7 INCHES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH SHORT MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER NORTHEAST HAS SPARK SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAK BUT HOLD TOGETHER BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PWATS ARE 1.5-2 INCHES SO
A GOOD DOSING OF RAIN WILL FALL. THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATION AS
WELL AS THE REGION WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE DIDNT GET WORKED OVER BY
THE EVENING CONVECTION. THE RAP MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST
ESPECIALLY WHEN THE LLJ BEGINS TO DEVELOP. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING WITH HOW HIGH THE PWATS ARE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...LIKE A TROPICAL FEEL OUT THERE.
OTHERWISE LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S
WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND/OR EVENING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE***
***HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT***
AN INTERESTING SET UP IN PLACE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT DETAILS/TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN. APPEARS THE
MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/S AND
WHEN/WHERE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.
SOME OF OUR GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF MOST OF THE CONVECTION UNTIL VERY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WHEN THE MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND GETS THINGS GOING CLOSE TO 00Z IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.
OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS BREAKS OUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT EARLIER. WE ARE DEALING WITH A VERY
MOIST/UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND IT WON/T TAKE MUCH HEATING TO GET
SOME CONVECTION GOING. WE SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLIER
THAN SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.
OTHER THAN THE TIMING ISSUES...THE BIG UNCERTAINTY THAT NEEDS TO BE
RESOLVED IS THE AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSULATION. GIVEN PATTERN...EXPECT
TO SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND BUT A FEW PEEKS OF SUN WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE WILL HAVE 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...WE
CAN GET AWAY WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS AND STILL HAVE A SEVERE
THREAT...BUT MORE SUN WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE POTENTIAL. LOOKS LIKE
WE SHOULD SEE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOP...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF
25 TO 35 KNOTS AND PERHAPS LOCALLY OVER 40 KNOTS WHEN THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT...AND 70+ DEWPOINTS.
ALL IN ALL...DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE SHEAR
SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING. PERHAPS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL ENDS UP
IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY/SHEAR
OVERLAP...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ANYWHERE.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR HAIL WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS. IN
ADDITION...0 TO 1 KM HELICITY VALUES MAY EXCEED 100 ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S...AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
IT APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COME MORE WIDESPREAD. PWATS
ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AT 2+ INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BUT
THOUGH THERE IS MORE TIME TO GET A BETTER FEEL ON THE LOCATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* NUMEROUS SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
* SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ON
TUESDAY
* WARM AND VERY HUMID TUESDAY
* IMPROVING WEATHER WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS LATE THIS
WEEK
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH AN ANOMALOUS
TROUGH/CUTOFF COLD POOL MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK.
AS THIS TROUGH EVOLVES INTO THE LONG RANGE TIMEFRAME AND SHIFTS
SLOWLY SE...SURFACE WAVES AND TROUGHS WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN THE
DEVELOPING SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH TROPICAL AIR ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH PWATS
REMAINING IN THE 2.1 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALL
THIS...ALONG WITH THE SW FLOW IN PLACE...CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE
QPF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND 00Z THU IN THE FORECAST...
BUT THAT IS AERIAL COVERAGE. MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LOCALLY
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS.
12Z MODEL CYCLE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT IN VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS LOW PRES WAVE MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT LYING ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING RR QUADRANT OF 120 KT H3
JET PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUE INTO WED...ALONG WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY IN PLACE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SBCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG...AND EVEN 0-1 KM HELICITIES UP TO
AROUND 100 /M2. WILL SEE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. MAY ALSO SEE HAIL
AND...AGAIN...CAN NOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE SPINUP. HOWEVER...THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SOLAR INSULATION...AS THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND. SPC HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY PUSHING THE FRONT E DURING
WEDNESDAY AS THE H5 TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. SOME INSTABILITY WILL LINGER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
THERE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...AND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME HEAVY
RAINERS AS DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WED NIGHT.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
HUMIDITIES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH A POSSIBLE TRAILING H5
SHORT WAVE TRYING TO APPROACH LATE SAT OR SUN. HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS POSSIBLE FEATURE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGH SHOULD KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ESP IN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. FOG POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW ESP
ACROSS SOUTH COAST AS WIND GUSTS ARE STILL TO HIGH...SO MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE STRATUS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...LOWERED VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT....MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE BEST SHOT MAY BE IN OUR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. BIGGEST THREATS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALLY
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AS FOR SKY/VSBYS OUTSIDE OF
PRECIPITATION VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE DURING THE DAY TUE EXCEPT
LOWER CONDITIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF MASS PIKE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TO NIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR TO IFR
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING BUT
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS KEEP CIGS
AND VSBYS NEAR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE BIGGEST THREATS BEING TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE PROB OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 08Z.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH SCT TO
NUMEROUS TSTMS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS LIKELY. WILL SEE AREAS OF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIP. SOME GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS LIKELY TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL-E MA/RI. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ACROSS CT VALLEY TUE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY WED. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MIDDAY ACROSS CT VALLEY AND SLOWLY PUSHING E DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MVFR MAY LINGER INTO WED EVENING ACROSS E MA/RI. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE AREAS WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS E MA SHOULD IMPROVE BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR.
FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MANY OF THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH MAY BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET
ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS. THEREFORE...SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN
PLACE. MAY HAVE SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON MONDAY...BUT STILL
EXPECT THEM TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THEREFORE...DO NOT THINK
WILL NEED NEAR SHORE SCA HEADLINES. ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...SEAS
MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT. THEREFORE...OPTED TO JUST EXTEND THOSE SCA HEADLINES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MAY HAVE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. IN ADDITION...MORE FOG MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS ON THE OPEN
WATERS UP TO 5-6 FT. SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS WITH VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
REDUCED VSBYS. LOW CHANCE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS. VSBYS
ALSO REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATERS. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 KT. SEAS
REMAIN AOA 5 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS. STILL EXPECT HEAVY SHOWERS/SCT
TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS. WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT FROM W-E
WED NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG LINGERS ON THE EASTERN WATERS
THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN WATERS EARLY THU...OTHERWISE GOOD VSBYS. W
TO NW WINDS DIMINISHING...BUT SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS THU...WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE THU NIGHT. WILL SEE LIGHT S
TO SW WINDS FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WITH BOSTON AT 12.2 FEET AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVENT
ANY PROBLEMS ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST...WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY ISSUES. NO
COASTAL PRODUCTS ARE ANTICIPATED. WORST CASE SCENARIO IS VERY
MINOR SPLASH OVER WITH NO REAL IMPACTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ231>234-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
128 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA MID TO
LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
XPCT CONVECTION TO ONCE AGAIN REIGNITE OVER THE COASTAL WTRS LTE
TNGT/ERLY MON MRNG AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT CNTR EMERGES OFF THE
SC COAST. THIS SOLN SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP. SHOULD
SEE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WTRS AS LOW-LEVEL
STEERING TRAJS ARE PROGGED TO VEER TO THE SW AFT MIDNGT. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE SC BEACHES AND MUCH OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE COASTLINE.
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING SHOWING 20 PCNT ACROSS
MAINLY THE SC BEACHES AND UP TO 40 PERCENT FROM ROUGHLY FOLLY
BEACH NE TO MCCLELLANVILLE. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR 70S INLAND
TO THE MID-UPR 70S AT THE COAST AND DWTN CHARLESTON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...I EXPECT WE WILL WAKE UP TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT THERE WILL BE A
DIFFERENCE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A LEE TROF BECOMING
ESTABLISHED DUE TO INLAND HEATING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A
BIT STRONGER...ALLOWING WINDS TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND KEEP MORE
OF THE RAIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS RATHER THAN MOVING WELL INLAND. OF
COURSE...THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING
HOURS...AND THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION INLAND DURING THE
MAXIMUM HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN
RECENTLY...HOWEVER.
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE WARMER DUE TO BOTH THE MORE PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AS WELL AS WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER. I STILL EXPECT MANY PLACES TO GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
INLAND...WITH THE USUAL UPPER 80S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT THE
BEACHES.
TUESDAY...ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. A DEVELOPING SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA BY TUESDAY MORNING...MAKING IT TO THE MIDLANDS AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT
TOO FAR INLAND DUE TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. I AM
GENERALLY GOING WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE. MAIN REASON I AM
NOT GOING HIGHER IS THAT THE TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.
BEST UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST BY SUNSET
TUESDAY...SO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION UNLIKE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA.
TEMPS ARE TRICKY ON TUESDAY. IF THE FRONT IS JUST A FEW HOURS
SLOWER...IT COULD BE A QUITE HOT DAY WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE
AGAIN OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL POSITION...I HAVE OPTED TO GO ONLY MID 90S MOST PLACES AWAY
FROM THE COAST WITH UPPER 80S AGAIN AT THE BEACHES...ALTHOUGH THAT
IS STILL ABOVE GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING OVERNIGHT...THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT INCREASES...AND THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...HELPING TO INCREASE SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
I THINK THAT WE MAY SEE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OF THE
AREA CONTINUE TO STEADILY MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT...SO I KEPT POPS I THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY.
WEDNESDAY...ALL SIGNS POINT TO THE SURFACE FRONT MAKING AN ABRUPT
HALT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT RAPIDLY PULLS INTO EASTERN CANADA. SINCE MODELS ARE SHOWING
PWS IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE...I MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING
FORECAST OF GOOD CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. IT MIGHT BE A TOUCH DRIER
ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE...SO POPS ARE A BIT LOWER THERE...BUT NOT
BY MUCH. DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90. REALLY LOW PWS WILL BE TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE IN NORTH
GEORGIA...BUT JUST WONT MAKE IT TO THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
COLD FRONT MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY BUT BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST SOUTH/EAST OF
THE TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KCHS...DURING THE 09Z-12Z TIME SPAN.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS NEAR TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON REMAINS UNCLEAR AND WILL BE INDIRECTLY RELATED TO
MORNING CONVECTION OR LACK THEREOF. WILL OMIT ANY MENTION OF
VCTS/CBS FROM 06Z TAFS BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...THUS
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR LATER TAF
PACKAGES. OTHERWISE...VFR THOUGH MONDAY EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
DUE MAINLY TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WITH THE LEE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED INLAND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. IN FACT...SOME PORTIONS OF THE WATERS COULD APPROACH 15-20
KT...THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL BE AROUND 15 KT. SEAS WILL TICK UP A BIT
AS WELL...BECOMING 2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND GENERALLY 3 FT BEYOND.
THERE COULD BE 4 FT SEAS IN THE OUTER GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THOUGH THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AS
LAND BREEZE CREATES A NICE OF AREA SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RATHER THAN MOVING
STEADILY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE MORNING...THEY SHOULD START
DRIFTING PARALLEL TOO AND EVENTUALLY FURTHER OFFSHORE AS ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
TIGHTER THAN USUAL GRADIENT DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH
WINDS 15-20 KT AT TIMES. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15
KT. AS THE FRONT DIES OUT WEST OF THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES FAIRLY WEAK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES DUE TO THE FULL MOON/PERIGEE COULD LEAD
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THE CHARLESTON AREA
MONDAY EVENING WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1159 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA MID TO
LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
XPCT CONVECTION TO ONCE AGAIN REIGNITE OVER THE COASTAL WTRS LTE
TNGT/ERLY MON MRNG AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT CNTR EMERGES OFF THE
SC COAST. THIS SOLN SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP. SHOULD
SEE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WTRS AS LOW-LEVEL
STEERING TRAJS ARE PROGGED TO VEER TO THE SW AFT MIDNGT. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE SC BEACHES AND MUCH OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE COASTLINE.
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING SHOWING 20 PCNT ACROSS
MAINLY THE SC BEACHES AND UP TO 40 PERCENT FROM ROUGHLY FOLLY
BEACH NE TO MCCLELLANVILLE. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR 70S INLAND
TO THE MID-UPR 70S AT THE COAST AND DWTN CHARLESTON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...I EXPECT WE WILL WAKE UP TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT THERE WILL BE A
DIFFERENCE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A LEE TROF BECOMING
ESTABLISHED DUE TO INLAND HEATING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A
BIT STRONGER...ALLOWING WINDS TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND KEEP MORE
OF THE RAIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS RATHER THAN MOVING WELL INLAND. OF
COURSE...THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING
HOURS...AND THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION INLAND DURING THE
MAXIMUM HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN
RECENTLY...HOWEVER.
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE WARMER DUE TO BOTH THE MORE PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AS WELL AS WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER. I STILL EXPECT MANY PLACES TO GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
INLAND...WITH THE USUAL UPPER 80S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT THE
BEACHES.
TUESDAY...ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. A DEVELOPING SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA BY TUESDAY MORNING...MAKING IT TO THE MIDLANDS AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT
TOO FAR INLAND DUE TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. I AM
GENERALLY GOING WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE. MAIN REASON I AM
NOT GOING HIGHER IS THAT THE TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.
BEST UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST BY SUNSET
TUESDAY...SO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION UNLIKE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA.
TEMPS ARE TRICKY ON TUESDAY. IF THE FRONT IS JUST A FEW HOURS
SLOWER...IT COULD BE A QUITE HOT DAY WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE
AGAIN OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL POSITION...I HAVE OPTED TO GO ONLY MID 90S MOST PLACES AWAY
FROM THE COAST WITH UPPER 80S AGAIN AT THE BEACHES...ALTHOUGH THAT
IS STILL ABOVE GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING OVERNIGHT...THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT INCREASES...AND THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...HELPING TO INCREASE SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
I THINK THAT WE MAY SEE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OF THE
AREA CONTINUE TO STEADILY MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT...SO I KEPT POPS I THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY.
WEDNESDAY...ALL SIGNS POINT TO THE SURFACE FRONT MAKING AN ABRUPT
HALT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT RAPIDLY PULLS INTO EASTERN CANADA. SINCE MODELS ARE SHOWING
PWS IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE...I MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING
FORECAST OF GOOD CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. IT MIGHT BE A TOUCH DRIER
ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE...SO POPS ARE A BIT LOWER THERE...BUT NOT
BY MUCH. DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90. REALLY LOW PWS WILL BE TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE IN NORTH
GEORGIA...BUT JUST WONT MAKE IT TO THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
COLD FRONT MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY BUT BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KCHS...AFTER 06Z-09Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
ASSESS POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
DUE MAINLY TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WITH THE LEE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED INLAND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. IN FACT...SOME PORTIONS OF THE WATERS COULD APPROACH 15-20
KT...THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL BE AROUND 15 KT. SEAS WILL TICK UP A BIT
AS WELL...BECOMING 2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND GENERALLY 3 FT BEYOND.
THERE COULD BE 4 FT SEAS IN THE OUTER GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THOUGH THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AS
LAND BREEZE CREATES A NICE OF AREA SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RATHER THAN MOVING
STEADILY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE MORNING...THEY SHOULD START
DRIFTING PARALLEL TOO AND EVENTUALLY FURTHER OFFSHORE AS ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
TIGHTER THAN USUAL GRADIENT DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH
WINDS 15-20 KT AT TIMES. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15
KT. AS THE FRONT DIES OUT WEST OF THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES FAIRLY WEAK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES DUE TO THE FULL MOON/PERIGEE COULD LEAD
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THE CHARLESTON AREA
MONDAY EVENING WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
101 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1030 AM CDT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BECOMING MORE CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH
SEVERAL FEATURES IN THE AREA TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT. FIRST IS AN
UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS BEEN ONGOING ALONG THE NE/KS
AND IA/MO BORDERS THE PAST FEW HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. SEVERAL SURFACE FEATURES ARE ALSO IN THE AREA. FIRST IS
A MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY THAT RUNS FROM NEAR GALESBURG INTO THE
SOUTHERN CHICAGO METRO AREA WITH UPPER 60S/70 DEWPOINTS TO THE
SOUTH AND AROUND 60 NORTH. A COOL FRONT HAS ALSO BEEN SAGGING
SOUTHWARD AND APPEARS TO BE CATCHING UP WITH THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY
NEAR GALESBURG BUT STRETCHES MORE TO THE NORTH INTO THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...EARLIER CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTH CHICAGO METRO HAS SPREAD SOME OUTFLOW SOUTHWARD
THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH OF AN INDICATION THAT IT STILL EXISTS.
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MOISTURE BOUNDARY AND MOVE EASTWARD. RADAR HAS STARTED TO SHOW
THIS OCCURRING IN THE LAST SEVERAL SCANS WITH CELLS POPPING FROM
WEST OF PEORIA INTO WESTERN KENDALL COUNTY...WHILE EXISTING
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT THAT
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE GIVEN THE INCREASING ASCENT AND INSTABILITY
SO CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY TAKE OVER. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA AND MAY NEED TO TWEAK UP TO
LIKELY FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PEAK COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF THE COVERAGE EXITING THE EASTERN CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY...INSTABILITY HAS BEEN INCREASING THROUGH
THE MORNING IN THE BETTER MOISTURE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE
STRONG THANKS TO A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX CURRENTLY OVERHEAD. SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS LOW/ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO
BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOLLOWED BY HAIL GIVEN THE PARAMETERS
BUT RAP ANALYSIS DOES SHOW HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL CAPE. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS ON THE LOW END WITH PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
THE LOWEST LEVELS BUT SOME LOW LEVEL ROTATION OF STORMS IS
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS THE OTHER CONCERN WITH PWATS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1.5 INCHES IF NOT A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE FAR SOUTH.
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE FOR AREAS FROM LIVINGSTON
AND FORD COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL METRO THAT SAW HEAVY
RAINS SATURDAY. BUT STORM MOVEMENT LOOKS PROGRESSIVE AT THIS
POINT...THOUGH A QUICK HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL.
MDB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
347 AM CDT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPS TODAY AND TUESDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW TEMP
MODERATION TREND FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR MID-JULY WITH A PAIR OF DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOWS
OVER ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN QUEBEC PER GOES VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING. WESTERN-MOST UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AND LIFTING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON THROUGH TONIGHT...LIFTING NORTHEAST
WITH THE UPPER CIRCULATION TUESDAY. CONSOLIDATION OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA
ESPECIALLY BY LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE UPPER
60S/AROUND 70 BY TUESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE
CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND. LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE WITHIN
5 DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COLDEST AIR...TEMPS +4C
AT 850 HPA AND -23C AT 500 HPA IN THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
IN ADDITION TO THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY SHOWING UP ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
IL EARLY THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A QUICK-MOVING SPEED MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW. HIGH-RES WRF/RAP/HRRR RUNS ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO DEVELOP SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE LIKELY TO REMAIN
FAIRLY ISOLATED. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH A COMBINATION OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING THROUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA APPEAR THE HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...AS WELL
AS GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN GENERAL WITH SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPS STILL IN THE LOW-MID 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE DURING THE MID-DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA...AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO
HELP TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FOCUS FOR GREATER SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE. THUS HAVE GENERALLY CARRIED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. PASSAGE OF VORT AXIS WITH SHORT WAVE
WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW EARLY THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SHOULD BRING
SHOWER THREAT TO AN END. A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THOUGH BY THAT
TIME THE UPPER TROUGH IS PULLING AWAY WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES
DEVELOPING.
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF RETREATING UPPER LOW...AND SLOWLY DRIFTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S AND
EVENTUALLY TO 80/LOW 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THE GFS IS NOTABLY
FURTHER NORTH AND DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE AND BRINGS THE THREAT OF
PRECIP BACK TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH HAVE
DISCOUNTED IT AS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AND PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH FOCUS THIS SYSTEM ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF ORGANIZED PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN TIERS OF STATES BY SUNDAY.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15THJULY 16TH
CHICAGO52 IN 196749 IN 1945
ROCKFORD45 IN 193046 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 N 190362 IN 1912
ROCKFORD64 IN 196268 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* ISOLATED SHRA MID AFTERNOON THRU LATE EVENING.
* GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THRU THIS EVENING.
* LOW MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
TSRA NOW PASSING EAST OF MDW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. SHOULD BE A FEW HOURS OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE COLDER AIR ALOFT
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS HAVE BEEN QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA WITH
AN OUTFLOW/LAKE BREEZE COMBINATION NEAR THE LAKE. WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN REMAIN WEST/NORTHWEST
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEEN/LOWER 20 KT
RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
THEN GUSTS WILL RETURN TUESDAY MORNING.
MVFR CIGS ARE QUITE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST UNDER THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS HEADED SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO
3-4KFT BY LATE MORNING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW FOR SHRA THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING.
* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM FOR LOW MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 14Z...
* TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
337 AM CDT
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS HAS CLEARED THE LAKE EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH LATER TODAY. WINDS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST BUT NOW ARE
BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT THEN VEER TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHWARD AND WILL BRING A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
LAKE MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PUSH OF
MUCH COOLER AIR. THIS WILL CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAKE IN QUITE A WHILE SUPPORTING THE MIXING OF STRONGER NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AND IT DOES APPEAR THAT 20 TO 25 KT
GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT THE INDIANA
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR WINDS AND
WAVES MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WEAKENS THROUGH THE WEEK AND MOVES OVER THE LAKE BY
WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH LIGHT SPEEDS
WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST.
NO CHANGES IN REASONING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 MB TEMPS COOLING TO AROUND
+5 OR +6 C INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LEADING TO A LAKE-850 DELTA T OF AROUND +11-12 C.
SOME OF THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF DEEP
INSTABILITY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE USING
TODAYS WATER TEMPS AT THE MID LAKE BUOYS. THESE CONDITIONS STILL
ARE ON THE LOWER END OF WATER SPOUT POTENTIAL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR NOW.
KMD/MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM
TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 PM MONDAY TO 1
PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1110 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1030 AM CDT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BECOMING MORE CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH
SEVERAL FEATURES IN THE AREA TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT. FIRST IS AN
UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS BEEN ONGOING ALONG THE NE/KS
AND IA/MO BORDERS THE PAST FEW HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. SEVERAL SURFACE FEATURES ARE ALSO IN THE AREA. FIRST IS
A MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY THAT RUNS FROM NEAR GALESBURG INTO THE
SOUTHERN CHICAGO METRO AREA WITH UPPER 60S/70 DEWPOINTS TO THE
SOUTH AND AROUND 60 NORTH. A COOL FRONT HAS ALSO BEEN SAGGING
SOUTHWARD AND APPEARS TO BE CATCHING UP WITH THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY
NEAR GALESBURG BUT STRETCHES MORE TO THE NORTH INTO THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...EARLIER CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTH CHICAGO METRO HAS SPREAD SOME OUTFLOW SOUTHWARD
THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH OF AN INDICATION THAT IT STILL EXISTS.
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MOISTURE BOUNDARY AND MOVE EASTWARD. RADAR HAS STARTED TO SHOW
THIS OCCURRING IN THE LAST SEVERAL SCANS WITH CELLS POPPING FROM
WEST OF PEORIA INTO WESTERN KENDALL COUNTY...WHILE EXISTING
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT THAT
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE GIVEN THE INCREASING ASCENT AND INSTABILITY
SO CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY TAKE OVER. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA AND MAY NEED TO TWEAK UP TO
LIKELY FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PEAK COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF THE COVERAGE EXITING THE EASTERN CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY...INSTABILITY HAS BEEN INCREASING THROUGH
THE MORNING IN THE BETTER MOISTURE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE
STRONG THANKS TO A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX CURRENTLY OVERHEAD. SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS LOW/ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO
BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOLLOWED BY HAIL GIVEN THE PARAMETERS
BUT RAP ANALYSIS DOES SHOW HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL CAPE. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS ON THE LOW END WITH PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
THE LOWEST LEVELS BUT SOME LOW LEVEL ROTATION OF STORMS IS
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS THE OTHER CONCERN WITH PWATS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1.5 INCHES IF NOT A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE FAR SOUTH.
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE FOR AREAS FROM LIVINGSTON
AND FORD COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL METRO THAT SAW HEAVY
RAINS SATURDAY. BUT STORM MOVEMENT LOOKS PROGRESSIVE AT THIS
POINT...THOUGH A QUICK HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL.
MDB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
347 AM CDT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPS TODAY AND TUESDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW TEMP
MODERATION TREND FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR MID-JULY WITH A PAIR OF DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOWS
OVER ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN QUEBEC PER GOES VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING. WESTERN-MOST UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AND LIFTING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON THROUGH TONIGHT...LIFTING NORTHEAST
WITH THE UPPER CIRCULATION TUESDAY. CONSOLIDATION OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA
ESPECIALLY BY LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE UPPER
60S/AROUND 70 BY TUESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE
CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND. LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE WITHIN
5 DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COLDEST AIR...TEMPS +4C
AT 850 HPA AND -23C AT 500 HPA IN THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
IN ADDITION TO THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY SHOWING UP ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
IL EARLY THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A QUICK-MOVING SPEED MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW. HIGH-RES WRF/RAP/HRRR RUNS ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO DEVELOP SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE LIKELY TO REMAIN
FAIRLY ISOLATED. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH A COMBINATION OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING THROUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA APPEAR THE HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...AS WELL
AS GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN GENERAL WITH SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPS STILL IN THE LOW-MID 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE DURING THE MID-DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA...AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO
HELP TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FOCUS FOR GREATER SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE. THUS HAVE GENERALLY CARRIED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. PASSAGE OF VORT AXIS WITH SHORT WAVE
WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW EARLY THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SHOULD BRING
SHOWER THREAT TO AN END. A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THOUGH BY THAT
TIME THE UPPER TROUGH IS PULLING AWAY WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES
DEVELOPING.
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF RETREATING UPPER LOW...AND SLOWLY DRIFTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S AND
EVENTUALLY TO 80/LOW 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THE GFS IS NOTABLY
FURTHER NORTH AND DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE AND BRINGS THE THREAT OF
PRECIP BACK TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH HAVE
DISCOUNTED IT AS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AND PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH FOCUS THIS SYSTEM ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF ORGANIZED PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN TIERS OF STATES BY SUNDAY.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15THJULY 16TH
CHICAGO52 IN 196749 IN 1945
ROCKFORD45 IN 193046 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 N 190362 IN 1912
ROCKFORD64 IN 196268 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE OF SHRA LATE AFTERNOON THRU LATE EVENING.
* GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EARLY AFTERNOON THRU MID EVENING.
* MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST IL LATE THIS MORNING WITH
A LINE OF TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IL NEAR PIA. THIS
LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST TOWARD THE I-80
CORRIDOR AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE
BEEN VARIABLE AND ERRATIC AT TIMES WITH OUTFLOWS FROM DECAYING
SHRA. PREVAILING WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER 10KTS AND
THEN SHIFT WEST/NORTHWEST WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON. CMS
PREVIOUS 14Z DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE TO FESTER ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST SHOWER MENTION
FOR NOW. HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES...
ITS POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED TSRA TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM/HI
RES GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-80 CORRIDOR. AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE CURRENTLY AND THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. HOW FAR INLAND
IT MOVES IS UNCERTAIN AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST AND PUSH ANY LAKE BREEZE BACK TO THE SHORE. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN SOME BEHIND THE FRONT AND COMBINED WITH THE COLDER
AIR ALOFT...LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL ALLOW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KT
RANGE...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER THROUGH SUNSET THOUGH GUSTS MAY
PERSIST WELL INTO THIS EVENING.
AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY MORNING. SPECIFIC CIGS ARE BIT DIFFICULT FROM THIS
DISTANCE BUT CIGS IN THE 1-2KFT RANGE LOOK REASONABLE. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA THIS MORNING...LOW FOR TSRA.
* LOW FOR SHRA THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING.
* LOW FOR WINDS UNTIL FROPA...HIGH FOR WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
* MEDIUM FOR MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 14Z...
* TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
337 AM CDT
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS HAS CLEARED THE LAKE EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH LATER TODAY. WINDS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST BUT NOW ARE
BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT THEN VEER TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHWARD AND WILL BRING A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
LAKE MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PUSH OF
MUCH COOLER AIR. THIS WILL CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAKE IN QUITE A WHILE SUPPORTING THE MIXING OF STRONGER NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AND IT DOES APPEAR THAT 20 TO 25 KT
GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT THE INDIANA
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR WINDS AND
WAVES MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WEAKENS THROUGH THE WEEK AND MOVES OVER THE LAKE BY
WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH LIGHT SPEEDS
WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST.
NO CHANGES IN REASONING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 MB TEMPS COOLING TO AROUND
+5 OR +6 C INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LEADING TO A LAKE-850 DELTA T OF AROUND +11-12 C.
SOME OF THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF DEEP
INSTABILITY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE USING
TODAYS WATER TEMPS AT THE MID LAKE BUOYS. THESE CONDITIONS STILL
ARE ON THE LOWER END OF WATER SPOUT POTENTIAL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR NOW.
KMD/MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM
TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 PM MONDAY TO 1
PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1043 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1030 AM CDT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BECOMING MORE CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH
SEVERAL FEATURES IN THE AREA TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT. FIRST IS AN
UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS BEEN ONGOING ALONG THE NE/KS
AND IA/MO BORDERS THE PAST FEW HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. SEVERAL SURFACE FEATURES ARE ALSO IN THE AREA. FIRST IS
A MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY THAT RUNS FROM NEAR GALESBURG INTO THE
SOUTHERN CHICAGO METRO AREA WITH UPPER 60S/70 DEWPOINTS TO THE
SOUTH AND AROUND 60 NORTH. A COOL FRONT HAS ALSO BEEN SAGGING
SOUTHWARD AND APPEARS TO BE CATCHING UP WITH THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY
NEAR GALESBURG BUT STRETCHES MORE TO THE NORTH INTO THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...EARLIER CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTH CHICAGO METRO HAS SPREAD SOME OUTFLOW SOUTHWARD
THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH OF AN INDICATION THAT IT STILL EXISTS.
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MOISTURE BOUNDARY AND MOVE EASTWARD. RADAR HAS STARTED TO SHOW
THIS OCCURRING IN THE LAST SEVERAL SCANS WITH CELLS POPPING FROM
WEST OF PEORIA INTO WESTERN KENDALL COUNTY...WHILE EXISTING
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT THAT
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE GIVEN THE INCREASING ASCENT AND INSTABILITY
SO CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY TAKE OVER. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA AND MAY NEED TO TWEAK UP TO
LIKELY FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PEAK COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF THE COVERAGE EXITING THE EASTERN CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY...INSTABILITY HAS BEEN INCREASING THROUGH
THE MORNING IN THE BETTER MOISTURE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE
STRONG THANKS TO A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX CURRENTLY OVERHEAD. SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS LOW/ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO
BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOLLOWED BY HAIL GIVEN THE PARAMETERS
BUT RAP ANALYSIS DOES SHOW HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL CAPE. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS ON THE LOW END WITH PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
THE LOWEST LEVELS BUT SOME LOW LEVEL ROTATION OF STORMS IS
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS THE OTHER CONCERN WITH PWATS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1.5 INCHES IF NOT A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE FAR SOUTH.
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE FOR AREAS FROM LIVINGSTON
AND FORD COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL METRO THAT SAW HEAVY
RAINS SATURDAY. BUT STORM MOVEMENT LOOKS PROGRESSIVE AT THIS
POINT...THOUGH A QUICK HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL.
MDB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
347 AM CDT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPS TODAY AND TUESDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW TEMP
MODERATION TREND FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR MID-JULY WITH A PAIR OF DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOWS
OVER ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN QUEBEC PER GOES VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING. WESTERN-MOST UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AND LIFTING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON THROUGH TONIGHT...LIFTING NORTHEAST
WITH THE UPPER CIRCULATION TUESDAY. CONSOLIDATION OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA
ESPECIALLY BY LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE UPPER
60S/AROUND 70 BY TUESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE
CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND. LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE WITHIN
5 DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COLDEST AIR...TEMPS +4C
AT 850 HPA AND -23C AT 500 HPA IN THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
IN ADDITION TO THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY SHOWING UP ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
IL EARLY THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A QUICK-MOVING SPEED MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW. HIGH-RES WRF/RAP/HRRR RUNS ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO DEVELOP SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE LIKELY TO REMAIN
FAIRLY ISOLATED. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH A COMBINATION OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING THROUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA APPEAR THE HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...AS WELL
AS GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN GENERAL WITH SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPS STILL IN THE LOW-MID 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE DURING THE MID-DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA...AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO
HELP TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FOCUS FOR GREATER SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE. THUS HAVE GENERALLY CARRIED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. PASSAGE OF VORT AXIS WITH SHORT WAVE
WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW EARLY THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SHOULD BRING
SHOWER THREAT TO AN END. A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THOUGH BY THAT
TIME THE UPPER TROUGH IS PULLING AWAY WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES
DEVELOPING.
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF RETREATING UPPER LOW...AND SLOWLY DRIFTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S AND
EVENTUALLY TO 80/LOW 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THE GFS IS NOTABLY
FURTHER NORTH AND DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE AND BRINGS THE THREAT OF
PRECIP BACK TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH HAVE
DISCOUNTED IT AS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AND PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH FOCUS THIS SYSTEM ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF ORGANIZED PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN TIERS OF STATES BY SUNDAY.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15THJULY 16TH
CHICAGO52 IN 196749 IN 1945
ROCKFORD45 IN 193046 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 N 190362 IN 1912
ROCKFORD64 IN 196268 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA...POSSIBLE TSRA THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE OF SHRA LATE AFTERNOON THRU LATE EVENING.
* GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EARLY AFTERNOON THRU MID EVENING.
* MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE TO FESTER ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST SHOWER MENTION
FOR NOW. HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES...
ITS POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED TSRA TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM/HI
RES GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-80 CORRIDOR. AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE CURRENTLY AND THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. HOW FAR INLAND
IT MOVES IS UNCERTAIN AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST AND PUSH ANY LAKE BREEZE BACK TO THE SHORE. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN SOME BEHIND THE FRONT AND COMBINED WITH THE COLDER
AIR ALOFT...LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL ALLOW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KT
RANGE...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER THROUGH SUNSET THOUGH GUSTS MAY
PERSIST WELL INTO THIS EVENING.
AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY MORNING. SPECIFIC CIGS ARE BIT DIFFICULT FROM THIS
DISTANCE BUT CIGS IN THE 1-2KFT RANGE LOOK REASONABLE. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA THIS MORNING...LOW FOR TSRA.
* LOW FOR SHRA THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING.
* LOW FOR WINDS THIS MORNING...HIGH FOR WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
* MEDIUM FOR MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 14Z...
* TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
337 AM CDT
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS HAS CLEARED THE LAKE EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH LATER TODAY. WINDS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST BUT NOW ARE
BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT THEN VEER TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHWARD AND WILL BRING A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
LAKE MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PUSH OF
MUCH COOLER AIR. THIS WILL CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAKE IN QUITE A WHILE SUPPORTING THE MIXING OF STRONGER NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AND IT DOES APPEAR THAT 20 TO 25 KT
GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT THE INDIANA
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR WINDS AND
WAVES MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WEAKENS THROUGH THE WEEK AND MOVES OVER THE LAKE BY
WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH LIGHT SPEEDS
WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST.
NO CHANGES IN REASONING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 MB TEMPS COOLING TO AROUND
+5 OR +6 C INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LEADING TO A LAKE-850 DELTA T OF AROUND +11-12 C.
SOME OF THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF DEEP
INSTABILITY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE USING
TODAYS WATER TEMPS AT THE MID LAKE BUOYS. THESE CONDITIONS STILL
ARE ON THE LOWER END OF WATER SPOUT POTENTIAL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR NOW.
KMD/MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM
TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 PM MONDAY TO 1
PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
444 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
347 AM CDT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPS TODAY AND TUESDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW TEMP
MODERATION TREND FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR MID-JULY WITH A PAIR OF DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOWS
OVER ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN QUEBEC PER GOES VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING. WESTERN-MOST UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AND LIFTING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON THROUGH TONIGHT...LIFTING NORTHEAST
WITH THE UPPER CIRCULATION TUESDAY. CONSOLIDATION OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA
ESPECIALLY BY LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE UPPER
60S/AROUND 70 BY TUESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE
CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND. LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE WITHIN
5 DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COLDEST AIR...TEMPS +4C
AT 850 HPA AND -23C AT 500 HPA IN THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
IN ADDITION TO THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY SHOWING UP ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
IL EARLY THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A QUICK-MOVING SPEED MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW. HIGH-RES WRF/RAP/HRRR RUNS ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO DEVELOP SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE LIKELY TO REMAIN
FAIRLY ISOLATED. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH A COMBINATION OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING THROUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA APPEAR THE HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...AS WELL
AS GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN GENERAL WITH SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPS STILL IN THE LOW-MID 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE DURING THE MID-DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA...AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO
HELP TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FOCUS FOR GREATER SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE. THUS HAVE GENERALLY CARRIED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. PASSAGE OF VORT AXIS WITH SHORT WAVE
WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW EARLY THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SHOULD BRING
SHOWER THREAT TO AN END. A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THOUGH BY THAT
TIME THE UPPER TROUGH IS PULLING AWAY WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES
DEVELOPING.
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF RETREATING UPPER LOW...AND SLOWLY DRIFTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S AND
EVENTUALLY TO 80/LOW 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THE GFS IS NOTABLY
FURTHER NORTH AND DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE AND BRINGS THE THREAT OF
PRECIP BACK TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH HAVE
DISCOUNTED IT AS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AND PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH FOCUS THIS SYSTEM ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF ORGANIZED PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN TIERS OF STATES BY SUNDAY.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15THJULY 16TH
CHICAGO52 IN 196749 IN 1945
ROCKFORD45 IN 193046 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 N 190362 IN 1912
ROCKFORD64 IN 196268 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE MAY BE GREATER.
* GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 09Z...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK AND THUS RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THERE AREA OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST IOWA HAS SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH THESE SHOWERS HAS
REMAINED LARGELY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT EXPECT THEM
TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER RFD BY 5 AM. SINCE THE HRRR AND SPC WRF HAVE
DONE WELL THIS EVOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE A VCSH MENTION AT THE
CHICAGO TERMINALS FOR THIS UPDATE...AS THE COVERAGE IS NOT VERY
WIDESPREAD AND MAY AVOID INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS BUT WILL MONITOR
THESE TRENDS. THE CHANCES IN ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTION ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN TAF AND CIGS REMAIN VFR.
THIS ACTIVITY CLEARS BY 14-15Z...THEN AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTH
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
REASSESS THE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS WITH
THE 12Z PACKAGE. NO CHANGE IN CURRENT INDICATIONS THAT ANY
ISOLATED THUNDER WOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MAIN CHICAGO
AREA TERMINALS...POSSIBLY IMPACTING GYY.
AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TODAY...MOST
TERMINALS CAN EXPECT NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY A BIT
HIGHER IN THE 21Z-0Z TIME FRAME.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THIS MORNING BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTING EITHER TERMINAL. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AT ORD/MDW.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON SPEEDS
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. PRIMARILY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
337 AM CDT
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS HAS CLEARED THE LAKE EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH LATER TODAY. WINDS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST BUT NOW ARE
BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT THEN VEER TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHWARD AND WILL BRING A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
LAKE MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PUSH OF
MUCH COOLER AIR. THIS WILL CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAKE IN QUITE A WHILE SUPPORTING THE MIXING OF STRONGER NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AND IT DOES APPEAR THAT 20 TO 25 KT
GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT THE INDIANA
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR WINDS AND
WAVES MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WEAKENS THROUGH THE WEEK AND MOVES OVER THE LAKE BY
WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH LIGHT SPEEDS
WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST.
NO CHANGES IN REASONING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 MB TEMPS COOLING TO AROUND
+5 OR +6 C INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LEADING TO A LAKE-850 DELTA T OF AROUND +11-12 C.
SOME OF THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF DEEP
INSTABILITY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE USING
TODAYS WATER TEMPS AT THE MID LAKE BUOYS. THESE CONDITIONS STILL
ARE ON THE LOWER END OF WATER SPOUT POTENTIAL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR NOW.
KMD/MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM
TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 PM MONDAY TO 1
PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
541 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS GOVE COUNTY BUT GIVEN
MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EVEN A LITTLE
HEATING THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...HAVE KEPT MINIMAL POPS IN
FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE
SOMEWHERE. HRRR SUPPORTS THIS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT PRECIP INDICATED
THROUGH 00Z. THE HRRR HAS HANDLED TODAYS PRECIP EVOLUTION FAIRLY
WELL.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
THIS EVENING GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE GFS SEEMS TO BLOW
UP A SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THIS EVENING AND HOLD IT TOGETHER
ALL THE WAY INTO SW KANSAS. THAT SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY AND
PREFER THE SREF FOR PRECIP TIMING AND EVOLUTION THIS EVENING.
THINKING BETTER PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT ARE WITH THE WELL-
DEVELOPED UPPER LOW NOW CROSSING MONTANA. THAT FEATURE WILL
GENERATE A DECENT ROUND OF PRECIP BUT LIKELY NOT BEFORE 06Z IN OUR
COUNTIES. AGAIN...WENT BASICALLY WITH AN SREF EVOLUTION OF PRECIP WHICH
BRINGS SHRA/TSRA SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT WITH AN EMPHASIS IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA TOMORROW.
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS THE NEXT 36 HOURS...KEEPING MID 50S
OVERNIGHT GIVEN CLOUD COVER...INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S...AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 60S ON
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
HAVE TRANSITIONED THE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS A RESULT MAINLY OF THE SURFACE WINDS TRANSITIONING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TO A MORE EAST/NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WHICH FAVORS
MORE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
FELT STRONGLY ENOUGH ABOUT THE AVAILABLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VORTICITY MAX AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM 700MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALOFT IN THE SUBSIDENT AREA BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH THE COOL AIRMASS EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S ON
FRIDAY.
EXPECT THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BECOMING WARMER
THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO AN INITIALLY MORE
ZONAL FLOW AND THEN INTO A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION BY TUESDAY.
ALSO EXPECT A TRANSITION INTO A MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN LATE DAY AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE THEREFORE
EITHER HINTED AT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK INCREASE IN POPS
OR HAVE PUT IN ISOLATED OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH LATE DAY TO
OVERNIGHT PERIODS IN DAYS 5 THROUGH 7.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT TAF PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SCOPE
OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. NEAR TERM MODELS
SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO HOW
VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE EVOLVES...ALTHOUGH BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AM SIDING WITH THE MORE PESSIMISTIC RAP DATA WHICH
BRINGS IN MVFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO 06Z AT GLD AND A FEW HOURS
LATER AT MCK. KEPT THE GENERAL TIMING OF PRECIP IN PREVIOUS TAFS
BUT DID LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES DURING PERIOD OF EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1121 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A FRONT IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.
THE HRRR INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT STORMS JUST NORTH OF THE FA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z. PLAN TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN CASE THEY SURVIVE OR
DEVELOP AGAIN. BY THIS EVENING THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FA
PRODUCING SLIM CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT EXCEPT THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ONCE AGAIN LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP
POPS LOW FOR TUESDAY. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WHICH LIMIT
FORCING OVER THE AREA. FORCING IMPROVES SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS GOOD AS WELL.
PLAN TO CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE
NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GOOD FORCING AND MOISTURE CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA. HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS LOOK ON TRACK. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE FORCING STARTS MOVING EAST OF THE FA SO WILL
GO WITH DECREASING POPS.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S TODAY. EVEN COOLER
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S. THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 65. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID
50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON THURSDAY A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH
GRADUAL MODERATING OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES OVER ROUGHLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE REASONABLY GOOD TEMPORAL
AGREEMENT IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. ONE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF WEAK RIDGING AND THEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE SATURDAY. FORCING FROM THESE SHORTWAVES AND AT
LEAST MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND RISE TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOIST
UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN COLORADO WILL INITIATED
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO LIMITED
AREAL COVERAGE CHANCES OF DIRECTLY IMPACTING EITHER TERMINAL WILL
BE SLIM.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
530 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A FRONT IS ADVERTIZED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.
THE HRRR INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT STORMS JUST NORTH OF THE FA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z. PLAN TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN CASE THEY SURVIVE OR
DEVELOP AGAIN. BY THIS EVENING THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FA
PRODUCING SLIM CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT EXCEPT THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ONCE AGAIN LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP
POPS LOW FOR TUESDAY. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WHICH LIMIT
FORCING OVER THE AREA. FORCING IMPROVES SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS GOOD AS WELL.
PLAN TO CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE
NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GOOD FORCING AND MOISTURE CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA. HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS LOOK ON TRACK. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE FORCING STARTS MOVING EAST OF THE FA SO WILL
GO WITH DECREASING POPS.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S TODAY. EVEN COOLER
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S. THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 65. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID
50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON THURSDAY A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH
GRADUAL MODERATING OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES OVER ROUGHLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TWO SEPERATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE REASONABLY GOOD TEMPORAL
AGREEMENT IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. ONE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF WEAK RIDGING AND THEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE SATURDAY. FORCING FROM THESE SHORTWAVES AND AT
LEAST MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND RISE TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK. A FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE AT KMCK. WINDS WILL DECREASE
AROUND SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT
KGLD THIS EVENING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS A STORM OVER EASTERN
COLORADO MAY DRIFT INTO THE VICINITY OF KGLD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
252 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A FRONT IS ADVERTIZED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.
THE HRRR INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT STORMS JUST NORTH OF THE FA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z. PLAN TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN CASE THEY SURVIVE OR
DEVELOP AGAIN. BY THIS EVENING THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FA
PRODUCING SLIM CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT EXCEPT THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ONCE AGAIN LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP
POPS LOW FOR TUESDAY. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WHICH LIMIT
FORCING OVER THE AREA. FORCING IMPROVES SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS GOOD AS WELL.
PLAN TO CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE
NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GOOD FORCING AND MOISTURE CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA. HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS LOOK ON TRACK. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE FORCING STARTS MOVING EAST OF THE FA SO WILL
GO WITH DECREASING POPS.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S TODAY. EVEN COOLER
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S. THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 65. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID
50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON THURSDAY A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH
GRADUAL MODERATING OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES OVER ROUGHLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TWO SEPERATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE REASONABLY GOOD TEMPORAL
AGREEMENT IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. ONE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF WEAK RIDGING AND THEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE SATURDAY. FORCING FROM THESE SHORTWAVES AND AT
LEAST MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND RISE TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOPED WITHIN THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THE
PERIOD WITH SOME DEVELOPED NOTED NORTH OF KMCK. HOWEVER NEWER
GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER EAST THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE. SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD. HOWEVER...DID
PUT IN A VCTS MENTION SINCE IT STILL LOOK EAST OF KMCK BUT IS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE VCTS MENTION.
AT THIS TIME EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE WEST OF BOTH SITES DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. KGLD LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHOSE NOT TO PUT ANY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AFTER THE
WINDSHIFT...THE WINDS WILL GET GUSTY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1228 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE MOVING TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS.
A SECONDARY LINE AS PROMISED BY THE HRRR HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE MODELS PUTS THIS LINE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THERE IS ANOTHER BATCH FORECAST FOR LATER
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL BE MUCH MORE
BENIGN THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. LOOKING AT THE
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WAYNE...MCCREARY...WHITLEY...SOUTHERN KNOT AND
HARLAN COUNTIES AS THEY HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER AND WILL HAVE BETTER
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. WITH ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS THIS MORNING...THE
THREAT OF ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED BUT IS NOT
ZERO AS SOME PEA SIZED HAIL WAS JUST REPORTED IN SOMERSET. THE HRRR
WAS FORECASTING THAT THE PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE
DECREASING AND THEN SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS BEEN UNDER
FORECASTING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN
NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
HOURLY GRIDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF RECENT OBSERVATION AND RADAR TRENDS. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR WAS ALSO FACTORED IN FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AT THIS POINT AHEAD OF A
BOUNDARY THAT IS STALL LING OUT AND BECOMING RATHER ILL DEFINED FROM
CENTRAL OH BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER. AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS A SOMEWHAT BROAD TROUGH ENCOMPASSES
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS WELL AS THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND ALSO CENTERED NEAR THE
FL PENINSULA. TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE CENTERED WITHIN THE
TROUGH...ONE NEARING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE OTHER TO ITS
EAST OVER QUEBEC. WEAK SHORTWAVES WERE ROTATING THROUGH THIS
TROUGH...WITH ONE ENTERING THE OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NEAR THE
STALLED BOUNDARY CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AS
WELL AS PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY REGION. AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ON OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER WAVE OR WAVES MOVING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SHOULD ALSO APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS COMBINATION WILL SEND
THE STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND WITH SOME
SURFACE HEATING AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR FORCING...ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TO WORK THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THIS MORNING...THE FOCUS
FOR STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD RESIDE CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KY. SOMEWHAT LESS INTENSE CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND OUTFLOWS.
FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT...CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KY OR
HAVE WEAKENED AND THEN REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND OR EASTERN KY.
PENDING SURFACE HEATING AND INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. PW WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY AND WITH RELATIVELY DEEP WARM
CLOUD DEPTH ANTICIPATED...RAINFALL RATES AROUND TWO INCHES PER OR OR
MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE REPEATED STORMS
COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME FLASH
FLOODING. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SO
SOILS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN BEFORE PROBLEMS
MIGHT DEVELOP. EXPECTED CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION AND EXTENT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS
SEEM TO POINT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA POISED TO GET THE
MOST HEATING THIS MORNING.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS IN MANY AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR TWO WORKS
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. DEEPER
MOISTURE BY TONIGHT SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...SO QPF IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE GREATER THAN
AREAS FURTHER NORTH. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY DEPARTS THE
REGION AND THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WITH A COLDER AIRMASS WORKING
INTO THE AREA AND CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS ON
WED WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE...A BREAK FROM
THE RECENT AROUND 90 TO LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER AND MOVES OUT OF THE
PLAINS. THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPARTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
INTO VIRGINIA TUESDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT...THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
FIRE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AS
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVERS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT EVENTUALLY
FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...AS A COOL AND DRY CANADIAN
AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED TO NOT REACH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN A SME
TO JKL TO SJS LINE THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. THEREAFTER...SO REDEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BRING AN OR BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IN
BOTH AREAS OF CONVECTION...MAINLY MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR IS ANTICIPATED.
FURTHER SATURATION AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO
IFR CIGS AFTER 6Z. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT PRECLUDES
GO WITH PREVAILING TSRA AT ANY POINT JUST YET.
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1043 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. WITH ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS THIS MORNING...THE
THREAT OF ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED BUT IS NOT
ZERO AS SOME PEA SIZED HAIL WAS JUST REPORTED IN SOMERSET. THE HRRR
WAS FORECASTING THAT THE PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE
DECREASING AND THEN SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS BEEN UNDER
FORECASTING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN
NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
HOURLY GRIDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF RECENT OBSERVATION AND RADAR TRENDS. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR WAS ALSO FACTORED IN FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AT THIS POINT AHEAD OF A
BOUNDARY THAT IS STALL LING OUT AND BECOMING RATHER ILL DEFINED FROM
CENTRAL OH BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER. AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS A SOMEWHAT BROAD TROUGH ENCOMPASSES
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS WELL AS THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND ALSO CENTERED NEAR THE
FL PENINSULA. TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE CENTERED WITHIN THE
TROUGH...ONE NEARING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE OTHER TO ITS
EAST OVER QUEBEC. WEAK SHORTWAVES WERE ROTATING THROUGH THIS
TROUGH...WITH ONE ENTERING THE OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NEAR THE
STALLED BOUNDARY CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AS
WELL AS PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY REGION. AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ON OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER WAVE OR WAVES MOVING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SHOULD ALSO APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS COMBINATION WILL SEND
THE STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND WITH SOME
SURFACE HEATING AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR FORCING...ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TO WORK THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THIS MORNING...THE FOCUS
FOR STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD RESIDE CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KY. SOMEWHAT LESS INTENSE CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND OUTFLOWS.
FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT...CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KY OR
HAVE WEAKENED AND THEN REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND OR EASTERN KY.
PENDING SURFACE HEATING AND INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. PW WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY AND WITH RELATIVELY DEEP WARM
CLOUD DEPTH ANTICIPATED...RAINFALL RATES AROUND TWO INCHES PER OR OR
MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE REPEATED STORMS
COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME FLASH
FLOODING. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SO
SOILS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN BEFORE PROBLEMS
MIGHT DEVELOP. EXPECTED CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION AND EXTENT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS
SEEM TO POINT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA POISED TO GET THE
MOST HEATING THIS MORNING.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS IN MANY AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR TWO WORKS
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. DEEPER
MOISTURE BY TONIGHT SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...SO QPF IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE GREATER THAN
AREAS FURTHER NORTH. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY DEPARTS THE
REGION AND THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WITH A COLDER AIRMASS WORKING
INTO THE AREA AND CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS ON
WED WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE...A BREAK FROM
THE RECENT AROUND 90 TO LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER AND MOVES OUT OF THE
PLAINS. THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPARTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
INTO VIRGINIA TUESDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT...THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
FIRE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AS
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVERS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT EVENTUALLY
FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...AS A COOL AND DRY CANADIAN
AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED TO NOT REACH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN A SME
TO JKL TO SJS LINE THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. THEREAFTER...SO REDEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BRING AN OR BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IN
BOTH AREAS OF CONVECTION...MAINLY MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR IS ANTICIPATED.
FURTHER SATURATION AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO
IFR CIGS AFTER 6Z. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT PRECLUDES
GO WITH PREVAILING TSRA AT ANY POINT JUST YET.
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
754 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
HOURLY GRIDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF RECENT OBSERVATION AND RADAR TRENDS. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR WAS ALSO FACTORED IN FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AT THIS POINT AHEAD OF A
BOUNDARY THAT IS STALL LING OUT AND BECOMING RATHER ILL DEFINED FROM
CENTRAL OH BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER. AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS A SOMEWHAT BROAD TROUGH ENCOMPASSES
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS WELL AS THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND ALSO CENTERED NEAR THE
FL PENINSULA. TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE CENTERED WITHIN THE
TROUGH...ONE NEARING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE OTHER TO ITS
EAST OVER QUEBEC. WEAK SHORTWAVES WERE ROTATING THROUGH THIS
TROUGH...WITH ONE ENTERING THE OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NEAR THE
STALLED BOUNDARY CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AS
WELL AS PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY REGION. AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ON OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER WAVE OR WAVES MOVING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SHOULD ALSO APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS COMBINATION WILL SEND
THE STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND WITH SOME
SURFACE HEATING AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR FORCING...ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TO WORK THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THIS MORNING...THE FOCUS
FOR STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD RESIDE CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KY. SOMEWHAT LESS INTENSE CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND OUTFLOWS.
FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT...CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KY OR
HAVE WEAKENED AND THEN REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND OR EASTERN KY.
PENDING SURFACE HEATING AND INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. PW WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY AND WITH RELATIVELY DEEP WARM
CLOUD DEPTH ANTICIPATED...RAINFALL RATES AROUND TWO INCHES PER OR OR
MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE REPEATED STORMS
COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME FLASH
FLOODING. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SO
SOILS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN BEFORE PROBLEMS
MIGHT DEVELOP. EXPECTED CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION AND EXTENT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS
SEEM TO POINT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA POISED TO GET THE
MOST HEATING THIS MORNING.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS IN MANY AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR TWO WORKS
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. DEEPER
MOISTURE BY TONIGHT SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...SO QPF IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE GREATER THAN
AREAS FURTHER NORTH. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY DEPARTS THE
REGION AND THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WITH A COLDER AIRMASS WORKING
INTO THE AREA AND CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS ON
WED WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE...A BREAK FROM
THE RECENT AROUND 90 TO LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER AND MOVES OUT OF THE
PLAINS. THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPARTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
INTO VIRGINIA TUESDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT...THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
FIRE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AS
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVERS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT EVENTUALLY
FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...AS A COOL AND DRY CANADIAN
AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED TO NOT REACH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN A SME
TO JKL TO SJS LINE THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. THEREAFTER...SO REDEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BRING AN OR BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IN
BOTH AREAS OF CONVECTION...MAINLY MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR IS ANTICIPATED.
FURTHER SATURATION AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO
IFR CIGS AFTER 6Z. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT PRECLUDES
GO WITH PREVAILING TSRA AT ANY POINT JUST YET.
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
901 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS COME TO AN END AND WATCH
NUMBER 423 HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THERE IS ONE LAST AREA OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING NEAR LOUISA/CAROLINE COUNTIES
THAT SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...
MOST AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING JUST RAIN WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. 12 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 2.75 INCHES FOR THIS EVENT (OBSERVATIONS TAKEN
FROM THE MESOWEST DATA NETWORK)...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS VIRGINIA TWD THE COAST
OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALSO HAVE PLENTY OF LIFT DUE
TO BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET WHICH IS LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. ALL THIS COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT MOVING IN AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH WILL
GENERATE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HRRR AND RUC
ARE DOING A GOOD JOB DEPICTING ONE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME
ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPS ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA. MODELS
SHOW ALL THESE THUNDERSTORMS JUST SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE CORFIDI VECTORS ONLY SHOW SLOW PROPAGATION ACROSS THE AREA OF
THESE STORMS. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCATIONS.
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AS MANY AREAS HAVE
BEEN QUITE DRY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AS THIS
COULD BE THE ONE AREA THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD ALSO PULSE UP AND BECOME SEVERE BUT THE BEST SHEAR IS MAINLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER SUNSET THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S
WHICH MATCHES MOSGUIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT
THE SHOWERS TO END DURING THE EARLY MORNING IN THE WEST BUT TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO FINALLY END OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE EAST
WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 80 BUT OUT WEST WHERE THE SUN DOES COME OUT
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. IF CLOUDS LINGER IN THE
WEST THE HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY SOME
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MOST OF THIS MOISTURE TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA SO STILL EXPECT A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY.
FOLLOWED MOSGUIDE WITH HIGHS SLOWLY WARMING FROM THE MID 80S
THURSDAY TO NEAR 90 BY FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 60S POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
50S WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT ALL AREAS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO GET PULLED
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND, AND WE WILL LIKELY
SEE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY KICK BACK UP INCREMENTALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE WAVY FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. KEPT A LOW (SLIGHT CHC) POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS INITIAL WAVE PUSHES ACROSS...WITH HIGHER, MORE
WIDESPREAD HIGH END CHC (40%) POP SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS, WITH A SECOND PERIOD OF (MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN) 40-50% POP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS NEXT VORT MAX
PUSHES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SET UP
OFFSHORE, BRINGING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SET UP AND WARMING
TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT MAXIMA TO AVERAGE AROUND -1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND FRI-SUN,
WITH SOME WARMING BACK TOWARDS CLIMO NORMAL MON/TUE. EARLY
MORNING LOWS WILL SETTLE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS COVERING MOST OF THE WAKEFIELD CWA IN A HUMID AIRMASS IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVAILING -SHRAS OR -RA FOR ALL SITES THIS EVENG INTO WED MORNG.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS. PCPN WILL END FM WNW TO ESE
WED MORNING...AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFF THE CST. MAINLY VFR
AND DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED WED AFTN THRU FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SCA CRITERIA THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS REMAINING JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN THE BAY
AND SOUND. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN OFFSHORE SFC
HIGH...PREFRONTAL COASTAL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE WATERS, AND COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS TOWARD
12-15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF SCA EPISODE OVER THE BAY WITH WATER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE BAY CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES BUT
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE.
ONSHORE (E-NE) FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK (LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY) AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER
PORTION OF THE 20NM ZONES BUT HELD IT TO 4 FT OR LESS AT THIS
POINT. WINDS TURN AROUND TOWARDS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAB
NEAR TERM...BMD/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...MAM/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
826 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS COME TO AN END AND WATCH
NUMBER 423 HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THERE IS ONE LAST AREA OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING NEAR LOUISA/CAROLINE COUNTIES
THAT SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...
MOST AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING JUST RAIN WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. 12 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 2.75 INCHES FOR THIS EVENT (OBSERVATIONS TAKEN
FROM THE MESOWEST DATA NETWORK)...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS VIRGINIA TWD THE COAST
OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALSO HAVE PLENTY OF LIFT DUE
TO BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET WHICH IS LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. ALL THIS COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT MOVING IN AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH WILL
GENERATE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HRRR AND RUC
ARE DOING A GOOD JOB DEPICTING ONE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME
ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPS ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA. MODELS
SHOW ALL THESE THUNDERSTORMS JUST SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE CORFIDI VECTORS ONLY SHOW SLOW PROPAGATION ACROSS THE AREA OF
THESE STORMS. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCATIONS.
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AS MANY AREAS HAVE
BEEN QUITE DRY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AS THIS
COULD BE THE ONE AREA THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD ALSO PULSE UP AND BECOME SEVERE BUT THE BEST SHEAR IS MAINLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER SUNSET THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S
WHICH MATCHES MOSGUIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT
THE SHOWERS TO END DURING THE EARLY MORNING IN THE WEST BUT TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO FINALLY END OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE EAST
WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 80 BUT OUT WEST WHERE THE SUN DOES COME OUT
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. IF CLOUDS LINGER IN THE
WEST THE HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY SOME
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MOST OF THIS MOISTURE TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA SO STILL EXPECT A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY.
FOLLOWED MOSGUIDE WITH HIGHS SLOWLY WARMING FROM THE MID 80S
THURSDAY TO NEAR 90 BY FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 60S POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
50S WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT ALL AREAS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO GET PULLED
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND, AND WE WILL LIKELY
SEE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY KICK BACK UP INCREMENTALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE WAVY FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. KEPT A LOW (SLIGHT CHC) POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS INITIAL WAVE PUSHES ACROSS...WITH HIGHER, MORE
WIDESPREAD HIGH END CHC (40%) POP SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS, WITH A SECOND PERIOD OF (MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN) 40-50% POP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS NEXT VORT MAX
PUSHES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SET UP
OFFSHORE, BRINGING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SET UP AND WARMING
TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT MAXIMA TO AVERAGE AROUND -1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND FRI-SUN,
WITH SOME WARMING BACK TOWARDS CLIMO NORMAL MON/TUE. EARLY
MORNING LOWS WILL SETTLE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SC T SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVR THE CWA AS OF 2 PM IN THE
HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACRS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENG...AND HAVE
INCLUDED EITHER VCTS/VCSH INITIALLY IN ALL TAF SITES...THEN HAVE
PREVAILING -SHRAS OR -RA FOR ALL SITES THIS EVENG INTO WED MORNG.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT STRONGER TSTMS OR
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS. DID NOT
INCLUDE THESE CONDITIONS IN TAF SITES SO FAR. PCPN WILL END FM WNW
TO ESE LATE TNGT THRU WED...AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFF THE
CST. MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED WED AFTN THRU FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SCA CRITERIA THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS REMAINING JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN THE BAY
AND SOUND. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN OFFSHORE SFC
HIGH...PREFRONTAL COASTAL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE WATERS, AND COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS TOWARD
12-15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF SCA EPISODE OVER THE BAY WITH WATER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE BAY CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES BUT
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE.
ONSHORE (E-NE) FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK (LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY) AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER
PORTION OF THE 20NM ZONES BUT HELD IT TO 4 FT OR LESS AT THIS
POINT. WINDS TURN AROUND TOWARDS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAB
NEAR TERM...BMD/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
708 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. ALSO HAVE PLENTY OF LIFT DUE TO BEING IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET WHICH IS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. ALL THIS COMBINED WITH THE FRONT MOVING IN AND
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HRRR AND RUC ARE DOING A GOOD
JOB DEPICTING ONE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW ALL THESE
THUNDERSTORMS JUST SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE CORFIDI
VECTORS ONLY SHOW SLOW PROPAGATION ACROSS THE AREA OF THESE
STORMS. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AS MANY AREAS HAVE BEEN
QUITE DRY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AS THIS COULD BE
THE ONE AREA THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO PULSE UP AND BECOME SEVERE BUT THE BEST SHEAR IS MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER SUNSET THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S
WHICH MATCHES MOSGUIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT
THE SHOWERS TO END DURING THE EARLY MORNING IN THE WEST BUT TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO FINALLY END OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE EAST
WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 80 BUT OUT WEST WHERE THE SUN DOES COME OUT
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. IF CLOUDS LINGER IN THE
WEST THE HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY SOME
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MOST OF THIS MOISTURE TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA SO STILL EXPECT A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY.
FOLLOWED MOSGUIDE WITH HIGHS SLOWLY WARMING FROM THE MID 80S
THURSDAY TO NEAR 90 BY FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 60S POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
50S WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT ALL AREAS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO GET PULLED
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND, AND WE WILL LIKELY
SEE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY KICK BACK UP INCREMENTALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE WAVY FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. KEPT A LOW (SLIGHT CHC) POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS INITIAL WAVE PUSHES ACROSS...WITH HIGHER, MORE
WIDESPREAD HIGH END CHC (40%) POP SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS, WITH A SECOND PERIOD OF (MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN) 40-50% POP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS NEXT VORTMAX
PUSHES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SET UP
OFFSHORE, BRINGING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SET UP AND WARMING
TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT MAXIMA TO AVERAGE AROUND -1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND FRI-SUN,
WITH SOME WARMING BACK TOWARDS CLIMO NORMAL MON/TUE. EARLY
MORNING LOWS WILL SETTLE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVR THE CWA AS OF 2 PM IN THE
HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACRS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENG...AND HAVE
INCLUDED EITHER VCTS/VCSH INITIALLY IN ALL TAF SITES...THEN HAVE
PREVAILING -SHRAS OR -RA FOR ALL SITES THIS EVENG INTO WED MORNG.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT STRONGER TSTMS OR
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS. DID NOT
INCLUDE THESE CONDITIONS IN TAF SITES SO FAR. PCPN WILL END FM WNW
TO ESE LATE TNGT THRU WED...AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFF THE
CST. MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED WED AFTN THRU FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SCA CRITERIA THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS REMAINING JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN THE BAY
AND SOUND. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN OFFSHORE SFC
HIGH...PREFRONTAL COASTAL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE WATERS, AND COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS TOWARD
12-15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF SCA EPISODE OVER THE BAY WITH WATER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE BAY CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES BUT
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE.
ONSHORE (E-NE) FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK (LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY) AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER
PORTION OF THE 20NM ZONES BUT HELD IT TO 4 FT OR LESS AT THIS
POINT. WINDS TURN AROUND TOWARDS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
435 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN QUEBEC TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A LOW ON THE SW FLANK OF THE
TROUGH LOCATED OVER NW WI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE LOW
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTED A BAND OF SHRA THROUGH
CNTRL/ERN CWA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA AS SBCAPE VALUES NEARED 500
J/KG. ALTHOUGH SHRA COVERAGE HAD DIMINISHED WIT MAINLY SCT/ISOLD
LIGHTER SHOWERS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE SHRA COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...ANY TSRA SHOULD ALSO END. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO
STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCT SHRA. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD LOWER MI...DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
WEAK FGEN/DEF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH RAIN COVERAGE/POPS INCREASING OVERNIGHT.
TUE...THE SHRA...ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE INTO THE TERRAIN OF N CNTRL
UPPER MI...WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES (NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE) WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S N DOWNWIND OF NNW FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS GIVEN US THE CHANCES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT REACHING THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER BY 06Z/16.
THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN U.P. CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF THE BROAD
TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL LINGERING/WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO KEEP
MAINLY CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE BETTER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME LIMITING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE EASTERN U.P.
WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. SEE DRIER AIR SLIDE
IN...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES TO COOL. PWAT VALUES
OVER THE WEST ARE PROGGED TO BE ROUGHLY 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...CREATING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING PROVIDED
WINDS LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES COULD BE QUITE CHILLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.P. WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S...WITH A FEW OF THE USUALLY COLDER LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE
MID 30S. IF WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH OVER THESE AREAS IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT PATCHY FROST COULD FORM. FOR A COMPARISON...NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE RIGHT AROUND THE MID 50S THIS TIME OF YEAR. ADDED PATCHY
FROST FOR PORTIONS OF THE INLAND WEST...HOWEVER...AM NOT EXPECTING
FROST TO BE WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WHILE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE NEAR THE
INFLECTION POINT OF THE TWO WITH HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE U.P. THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY AND TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY
EVENING...PLACING THE CWA IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR TEMPERATURES IS A GRADUAL RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL KEEPING CLOUD COVER FAIRLY
LIMITED...OTHER THAN SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE THE AREA IS
PROGGED TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AS UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGHING BEGINS
TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
TIME FRAME. THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND GENERAL PATTERN DIFFERENCE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO BE EXACT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE TROUGH MAY HAVE A BIT
OF TROUBLE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVER THE EAST...HAVE DECIDED TO
STICK CLOSELY TO THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT CMX AND IWD WITH SCT SHRA IN
THE AREA AHEAD OF DEEP MID LEVEL LOW. MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY ALSO DEVELOP
BRIEFLY AT SAW WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
VFR. AS THE COOLER AIR AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE IN TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED
AT SAW AND IWD. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUE MORNING...MPROVEMENT TO
MVFR IS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH INTO
THE WRN LAKES WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
SLIGHTLY AND EXTENDS A TROUGH WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE HURON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING S TO SW FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
412 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN QUEBEC TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A LOW ON THE SW FLANK OF THE
TROUGH LOCATED OVER NW WI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE LOW
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTED A BAND OF SHRA THROUGH
CNTRL/ERN CWA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA AS SBCAPE VALUES NEARED 500
J/KG. ALTHOUGH SHRA COVERAGE HAD DIMINISHED WIT MAINLY SCT/ISOLD
LIGHTER SHOWERS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE SHRA COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...ANY TSRA SHOULD ALSO END. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO
STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCT SHRA. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD LOWER MI...DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
WEAK FGEN/DEF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH RAIN COVERAGE/POPS INCREASING OVERNIGHT.
TUE...THE SHRA...ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE INTO THE TERRAIN OF N CNTRL
UPPER MI...WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES (NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE) WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S N DOWNWIND OF NNW FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS GIVEN US THE CHANCES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT REACHING THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER BY 06Z/16.
THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN U.P. CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF THE BROAD
TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL LINGERING/WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO KEEP
MAINLY CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE BETTER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME LIMITING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE EASTERN U.P.
WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. SEE DRIER AIR SLIDE
IN...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES TO COOL. PWAT VALUES
OVER THE WEST ARE PROGGED TO BE ROUGHLY 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...CREATING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING PROVIDED
WINDS LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES COULD BE QUITE CHILLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.P. WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S...WITH A FEW OF THE USUALLY COLDER LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE
MID 30S. IF WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH OVER THESE AREAS IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT PATCHY FROST COULD FORM. FOR A COMPARISON...NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE RIGHT AROUND THE MID 50S THIS TIME OF YEAR. ADDED PATCHY
FROST FOR PORTIONS OF THE INLAND WEST...HOWEVER...AM NOT EXPECTING
FROST TO BE WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WHILE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE NEAR THE
INFLECTION POINT OF THE TWO WITH HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE U.P. THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY AND TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY
EVENING...PLACING THE CWA IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR TEMPERATURES IS A GRADUAL RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL KEEPING CLOUD COVER FAIRLY
LIMITED...OTHER THAN SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE THE AREA IS
PROGGED TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AS UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGHING BEGINS
TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
TIME FRAME. THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND GENERAL PATTERN DIFFERENCE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO BE EXACT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE TROUGH MAY HAVE A BIT
OF TROUBLE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVER THE EAST...HAVE DECIDED TO
STICK CLOSELY TO THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT CMX AND IWD WITH SCT SHRA IN
THE AREA AHEAD OF DEEP MID LEVEL LOW. MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY ALSO DEVELOP
BRIEFLY AT SAW WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
VFR. AS THE COOLER AIR AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE IN TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED
AT SAW AND IWD. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUE MORNING...MPROVEMENT TO
MVFR IS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO EXITS EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND EXTENDS A TROUGH WESTWARD ACROSS
LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING S TO SW FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
409 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHOWERY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A
POTENT UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A STRONG MID/UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN-CENTRAL MN IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS TURN SOUTHEASTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ACCELERATING ENE AWAY ACROSS CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI HAS KICKED OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED AT BEST
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HORUS.
TODAY...THE OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK...WITH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO REFINE POPS BASED OFF THE
LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS AND NEW MODEL GUIDANCE. LOCAL 12KM WRF AND
NCEP HRRR MODELS HAVE HANDLED OVERNIGHT PRECIP EVOLUTION FAIRLY WELL
AND ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TODAYS PRECIP. THEREFORE...EMPLOYED
THOSE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM TO DETERMINE
PRECIP EVOLUTION TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPANDING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN CWA BY DAY BREAK.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FADE AS IT PULLS AWAY
FROM THE MAIN LOW. SOME CONCERNS HAVE APPEARED WITH THE LATEST WV
TRENDS OF THE MID/UPPER LOWER. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ANALYZING THE LOW A
TOUCH FARTHER EAST THAN SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WOULD INDICATE. THIS
PLACES SOME DOUBT ON THE PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND THE BULK OF THE FORCING DIGS FARTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WI. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON THIS TREND
WITH SUBSEQUENT RUNS...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
ONTONAGON TO MARQUETTE. MAY NEED TO DO THIS MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS DEPENDING ON THE LATEST OBS.
EVEN WITH A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK...SOME DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH
INCREASED FORCING WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
INDUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CWA. LIGHT WINDS
INITIALLY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE SHORELINE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BEFORE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WNW THIS AFTERNOON AND
STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT. WITH ALL FACTORS IN PLACE...BEST PRECIP
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM IRONWOOD TO NEGAUNEE TO
MANISTIQUE AFTER NOON.
MUCAPE VALUES REACH A MEAGER 200 J/KG IN A VERY NARROW PROFILE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST HALF THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A STRAY RUMBLE
OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE...DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN EXTREMELY LOW COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WITH SOME CAPE TO
WORK WITH...SHOWERS COULD BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE AT TIMES.
TONIGHT...A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA...THOUGH WITH WASHED OUT MID-LEVEL FORCING AROUND...HAVE
KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A DEFORMATION/FGEN REGION
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE NORTHWEST CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY. A
3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS THIS BAND MOVES
OVERHEAD...SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH-END CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.
AS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED FOR MANY DAYS...TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL
FOR MID-JULY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WITH
THE MAIN H8 COLD-CORE OF 4-5C PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...TEMPS
WERE A BIT TRICKY. LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE WI BORDER
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. DID INCREASE
TEMPS FAR EAST AS THEY SHOULD SEE SOME HEATING EARLY ON. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THEIR MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S AROUND LATE MORNING
BEFORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AND KEEP TEMPS STEADY...OR POSSIBLY
FALLING...THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS GIVEN US THE CHANCES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT REACHING THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER BY 06Z/16.
THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN U.P. CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF THE BROAD
TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL LINGERING/WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO KEEP
MAINLY CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE BETTER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME LIMITING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE EASTERN U.P.
WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. SEE DRIER AIR SLIDE
IN...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES TO COOL. PWAT VALUES
OVER THE WEST ARE PROGGED TO BE ROUGHLY 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...CREATING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING PROVIDED
WINDS LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES COULD BE QUITE CHILLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.P. WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S...WITH A FEW OF THE USUALLY COLDER LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE
MID 30S. IF WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH OVER THESE AREAS IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT PATCHY FROST COULD FORM. FOR A COMPARISON...NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE RIGHT AROUND THE MID 50S THIS TIME OF YEAR. ADDED PATCHY
FROST FOR PORTIONS OF THE INLAND WEST...HOWEVER...AM NOT EXPECTING
FROST TO BE WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WHILE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE NEAR THE
INFLECTION POINT OF THE TWO WITH HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE U.P. THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY AND TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY
EVENING...PLACING THE CWA IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR TEMPERATURES IS A GRADUAL RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL KEEPING CLOUD COVER FAIRLY
LIMITED...OTHER THAN SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE THE AREA IS
PROGGED TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AS UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGHING BEGINS
TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
TIME FRAME. THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND GENERAL PATTERN DIFFERENCE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO BE EXACT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE TROUGH MAY HAVE A BIT
OF TROUBLE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVER THE EAST...HAVE DECIDED TO
STICK CLOSELY TO THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT CMX AND IWD WITH SCT SHRA IN
THE AREA AHEAD OF DEEP MID LEVEL LOW. MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY ALSO DEVELOP
BRIEFLY AT SAW WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
VFR. AS THE COOLER AIR AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE IN TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED
AT SAW AND IWD. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUE MORNING...MPROVEMENT TO
MVFR IS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO EXITS EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND EXTENDS A TROUGH WESTWARD ACROSS
LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING S TO SW FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO
KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL. IT WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH
SHOWERS AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CREATE A WARMING TREND TO THE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW.
SATELLITE SHOWS A RATHER POTENT UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING IN OUR
DIRECTION. UPSTREAM SOUNDING FROM INL SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE TO THE
TROP. AS THIS COLD SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE RELATIVELY WARMER
GREAT LAKES IT WILL PICK UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO AN INCREASING AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND MORE SO
TUESDAY MORNING. THUS I AM FEATURING HIGHER THAN MOS POPS.
LOCATIONS FAVORED WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SEE THE HIGHEST POPS.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWING UP...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THUS I WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK IN THERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. NORTHWEST COUNTIES MAY
STAY IN THE 50S WITH RAIN TUESDAY. IF THE RAIN DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...MY
FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE TOO LOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP
IT DRY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO
VARY ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER
AND SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
DEEPER AND WOULD LIKELY HOLD OFF THE STORMS UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL
KEEP KEEP THE RISK FOR STORMS GOING FOR SUNDAY AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES AS A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION BRING IN A MILDER AIRMASS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AROUND CHICAGO AND
MOVING EAST. THESE MAY IMPACT KALAMAZOO...BATTLE CREEK AND JACKSON
THIS EVENING...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THREAT WILL STAY
SOUTH. SO TAFS GENERALLY FEATURE VFR WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT. AROUND DAYBREAK AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ACT TO LOWER THE CLOUD
BASES. IT APPEARS THAT THESE CEILINGS WILL IMPACT
AVIATORS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE IS ALSO A
SMALL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
STILL ON TRACK FOR BUILDING WAVES. FSL RUC SHOWS GREATER THAN 25
KNOTS ARRIVING 10Z TO 14Z TIMEFRAME...THEN PERSISTING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COUPLED WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AND AN UNSTABLE LAKE
SUPPORTS WAVES WELL OVER 4 FEET. NOT SURE WHY GLERL DOES NOT
REALLY SHOW THIS. IN ANY EVENT IT SHOULD BE A HAZARDOUS DAY FOR
SWIMMING AND BOATING WITH SMALL CRAFT. WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
QPF VALUES LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER A HALF IN FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGHEST VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW. GENERALLY THIS IS FOR THE LOWER HALF OF OUR RIVER BASINS.
NOT ENOUGH QPF IS FORECASTED TO CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE TO FLOOD
STAGE. LOOKS DRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
206 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHOWERY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A
POTENT UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A STRONG MID/UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN-CENTRAL MN IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS TURN SOUTHEASTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ACCELERATING ENE AWAY ACROSS CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI HAS KICKED OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED AT BEST
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HORUS.
TODAY...THE OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK...WITH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO REFINE POPS BASED OFF THE
LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS AND NEW MODEL GUIDANCE. LOCAL 12KM WRF AND
NCEP HRRR MODELS HAVE HANDLED OVERNIGHT PRECIP EVOLUTION FAIRLY WELL
AND ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TODAYS PRECIP. THEREFORE...EMPLOYED
THOSE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM TO DETERMINE
PRECIP EVOLUTION TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPANDING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN CWA BY DAY BREAK.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FADE AS IT PULLS AWAY
FROM THE MAIN LOW. SOME CONCERNS HAVE APPEARED WITH THE LATEST WV
TRENDS OF THE MID/UPPER LOWER. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ANALYZING THE LOW A
TOUCH FARTHER EAST THAN SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WOULD INDICATE. THIS
PLACES SOME DOUBT ON THE PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND THE BULK OF THE FORCING DIGS FARTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WI. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON THIS TREND
WITH SUBSEQUENT RUNS...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
ONTONAGON TO MARQUETTE. MAY NEED TO DO THIS MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS DEPENDING ON THE LATEST OBS.
EVEN WITH A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK...SOME DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH
INCREASED FORCING WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
INDUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CWA. LIGHT WINDS
INITIALLY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE SHORELINE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BEFORE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WNW THIS AFTERNOON AND
STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT. WITH ALL FACTORS IN PLACE...BEST PRECIP
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM IRONWOOD TO NEGAUNEE TO
MANISTIQUE AFTER NOON.
MUCAPE VALUES REACH A MEAGER 200 J/KG IN A VERY NARROW PROFILE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST HALF THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A STRAY RUMBLE
OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE...DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN EXTREMELY LOW COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WITH SOME CAPE TO
WORK WITH...SHOWERS COULD BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE AT TIMES.
TONIGHT...A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA...THOUGH WITH WASHED OUT MID-LEVEL FORCING AROUND...HAVE
KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A DEFORMATION/FGEN REGION
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE NORTHWEST CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY. A
3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS THIS BAND MOVES
OVERHEAD...SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH-END CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.
AS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED FOR MANY DAYS...TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL
FOR MID-JULY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WITH
THE MAIN H8 COLD-CORE OF 4-5C PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...TEMPS
WERE A BIT TRICKY. LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE WI BORDER
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. DID INCREASE
TEMPS FAR EAST AS THEY SHOULD SEE SOME HEATING EARLY ON. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THEIR MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S AROUND LATE MORNING
BEFORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AND KEEP TEMPS STEADY...OR POSSIBLY
FALLING...THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER LOWER MI 12Z TUE WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PAST THE CWA AT THAT POINT. THE TROUGH AND LOW MOVE EAST
TUE AND NORTHEAST ON WED AWAY FROM THE AREA. PCPN WILL BE SLOWLY
PULLING OUT ON TUE AND BY WED...SHOULD BE DRY. NAM SHOWS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE SLOWLY DEPARTING ON TUE. GFS SHOWS ABOUT THE SAME THING
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF AND WILL USE A BLEND OF THEM FOR THIS
FORECAST.
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
WESTERN CWA AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO DRY THEN FOR THE FORECAST TUE NIGHT THROUGH
WED NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
12Z THU. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THEN.
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE FOR FRI. ON SAT...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA FORMS AN UPPER LOW IN IT THAT MOVES INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN 12Z SAT. A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM SITS OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR SUN THEN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT CMX AND IWD WITH SCT SHRA IN
THE AREA AHEAD OF DEEP MID LEVEL LOW. MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY ALSO DEVELOP
BRIEFLY AT SAW WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
VFR. AS THE COOLER AIR AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE IN TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED
AT SAW AND IWD. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUE MORNING...MPROVEMENT TO
MVFR IS EXPECTED. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO EXITS EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND EXTENDS A TROUGH WESTWARD ACROSS
LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING S TO SW FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1136 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
WE WILL SEE ONE MORE MILD DAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER...
ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THE COLD AIR COMING IN
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER
QUIETS DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1121 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT/TUE
AM. UPPER LOW DEEPER AND TRENDING WAS. COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
ENHANCED MOISTURE. NW FLOW WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
A RQB TO BTL LINE FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
MAIN FOCUS IS PCPN CHCS/CONVECTION CHCS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WE
SEE AN UPPER LOW DIG SE OVER THE AREA CENTERED AROUND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND ON TUE.
PESKY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SURVIVE ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THEY HEAD EAST TO SE LOWER. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND
JUST OUT AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT IN THE VICINITY. ALSO AIDING TO THE
SHOWERS HOLDING TOGETHER IS THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET STREAK NNE OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WE EXPECT THE FRONT AND RRQ DYNAMICS
MOVE OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND LEAVE A SHORT BREAK IN
THE PCPN CHCS.
A CHC OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A STORM WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS WI PRESSES INTO THE AREA. THE
CHC OF PCPN TODAY WILL BE LIMITED GREATLY BY THE ENTRANCE REGION TO
ANOTHER STRENGTHENING JET STREAK MOVING OVERHEAD AND PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE TO THE AREA. ALSO...A SOMEWHAT STABILIZING FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY A BIT.
THE BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND A STORM WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON TUE. THIS IS WHEN THE
MAIN UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO MN MOVES RIGHT OVER THE CWFA. PLENTY
OF COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A STRONG VORT/PV
ANOMALY. THE COOLER AIR COMING IN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL PRODUCE
DELTA T/S OF MID TEENS C OVER THE LAKE...CHANGING TOTALLY FROM THE
STABILIZING EFFECTS ON MON AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY HELP TO ENHANCE
THE PCPN OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY UP NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.
THE BEST AND MORE CONCENTRATED MOISTURE AND PCPN WILL MOVE OUT
LATER ON TUE WITH THE UPPER LOW...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL CHC OF A POP
UP SHOWER OVER THE AREA ON TUE NIGHT. SHOWER CHCS WILL INCREASE A
LITTLE WED AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TUE NIGHT AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY CAN BUILD WITH A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
INVERSION WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT MOVING EAST THAT WILL LIMIT PCPN
TO JUST SHOWERS VS. A POSSIBLE STORM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. CERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
A BIT LESS CERTAINTY EXISTS SATURDAY DUE TO DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS. DECIDED TO KEEP IT DRY IN LINE WITH THE 14/00Z ECMWF AND
13/12Z FIM RUNS. DISCOUNTED THE WETTER 14/00Z GFS WHICH IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH LIFTING A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW AND ATTENDANT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
IMPROVING CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON . THIS IS DUE TO BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 14/00Z RUNS
OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. BOTH MODELS BRING DEEPER MOISTURE AND
ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION INTO MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS COULD
SPILL OVER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO AFTER 16Z. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IS LIMITED. AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST
INCLUDING THE LAN AND JXN TERMINALS WOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
AND GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1121 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
FSL RUC SHOWS GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ENTIRE LAKESHORE BY 12Z TUE.
THAT COMBINED WITH A NW FLOW AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD BUILD
THE WAVES CONSIDERABLY. I DID INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS BECAUSE OF
THIS. HAZARDS LOOK GOOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
QPF VALUES AT THIS POINT DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL ADD MUCH TO
THE ONGOING RUNOFF. SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD NOT REFLECT THE
FORECASTED MINIMAL CONTRIBUTION FROM THE MON TO TUE EVENT. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR IT THOUGH AS THE LAKE WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO
THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE QPF.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
737 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHOWERY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A
POTENT UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A STRONG MID/UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN-CENTRAL MN IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS TURN SOUTHEASTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ACCELERATING ENE AWAY ACROSS CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI HAS KICKED OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED AT BEST
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HORUS.
TODAY...THE OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK...WITH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO REFINE POPS BASED OFF THE
LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS AND NEW MODEL GUIDANCE. LOCAL 12KM WRF AND
NCEP HRRR MODELS HAVE HANDLED OVERNIGHT PRECIP EVOLUTION FAIRLY WELL
AND ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TODAYS PRECIP. THEREFORE...EMPLOYED
THOSE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM TO DETERMINE
PRECIP EVOLUTION TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPANDING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN CWA BY DAY BREAK.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FADE AS IT PULLS AWAY
FROM THE MAIN LOW. SOME CONCERNS HAVE APPEARED WITH THE LATEST WV
TRENDS OF THE MID/UPPER LOWER. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ANALYZING THE LOW A
TOUCH FARTHER EAST THAN SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WOULD INDICATE. THIS
PLACES SOME DOUBT ON THE PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND THE BULK OF THE FORCING DIGS FARTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WI. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON THIS TREND
WITH SUBSEQUENT RUNS...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
ONTONAGON TO MARQUETTE. MAY NEED TO DO THIS MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS DEPENDING ON THE LATEST OBS.
EVEN WITH A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK...SOME DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH
INCREASED FORCING WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
INDUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CWA. LIGHT WINDS
INITIALLY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE SHORELINE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BEFORE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WNW THIS AFTERNOON AND
STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT. WITH ALL FACTORS IN PLACE...BEST PRECIP
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM IRONWOOD TO NEGAUNEE TO
MANISTIQUE AFTER NOON.
MUCAPE VALUES REACH A MEAGER 200 J/KG IN A VERY NARROW PROFILE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST HALF THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A STRAY RUMBLE
OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE...DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN EXTREMELY LOW COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WITH SOME CAPE TO
WORK WITH...SHOWERS COULD BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE AT TIMES.
TONIGHT...A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA...THOUGH WITH WASHED OUT MID-LEVEL FORCING AROUND...HAVE
KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A DEFORMATION/FGEN REGION
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE NORTHWEST CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY. A
3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS THIS BAND MOVES
OVERHEAD...SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH-END CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.
AS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED FOR MANY DAYS...TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL
FOR MID-JULY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WITH
THE MAIN H8 COLD-CORE OF 4-5C PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...TEMPS
WERE A BIT TRICKY. LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE WI BORDER
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. DID INCREASE
TEMPS FAR EAST AS THEY SHOULD SEE SOME HEATING EARLY ON. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THEIR MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S AROUND LATE MORNING
BEFORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AND KEEP TEMPS STEADY...OR POSSIBLY
FALLING...THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER LOWER MI 12Z TUE WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PAST THE CWA AT THAT POINT. THE TROUGH AND LOW MOVE EAST
TUE AND NORTHEAST ON WED AWAY FROM THE AREA. PCPN WILL BE SLOWLY
PULLING OUT ON TUE AND BY WED...SHOULD BE DRY. NAM SHOWS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE SLOWLY DEPARTING ON TUE. GFS SHOWS ABOUT THE SAME THING
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF AND WILL USE A BLEND OF THEM FOR THIS
FORECAST.
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
WESTERN CWA AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO DRY THEN FOR THE FORECAST TUE NIGHT THROUGH
WED NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
12Z THU. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THEN.
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE FOR FRI. ON SAT...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA FORMS AN UPPER LOW IN IT THAT MOVES INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN 12Z SAT. A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM SITS OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR SUN THEN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND BRING
-SHRA TO ALL TERMINALS. W TO WNW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP
THE WINDOW FOR SHOWERS SMALLER AT IWD AND CMX AS THE SHOWERS BECOME
ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...EXPECT HIGH COVERAGE AROUND
SAW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW CIGS WILL EVOLVE AT EACH SITE THROUGH
TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORT LOW-END MVFR CIGS
AT IWD BY LATE MORNING WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF SHRA MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN WELL INTO TONIGHT WITH ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. AT CMX...SHRA WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR OF THE TERMINAL TODAY...SO MVFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE FINAL ROUND OF SHRA TONIGHT. SAW WILL SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO CMX...BUT WITH HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHRA THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH-END MVFR CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO EXITS EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND EXTENDS A TROUGH WESTWARD ACROSS
LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING S TO SW FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
429 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHOWERY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A
POTENT UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A STRONG MID/UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN-CENTRAL MN IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS TURN SOUTHEASTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ACCELERATING ENE AWAY ACROSS CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI HAS KICKED OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED AT BEST
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HORUS.
TODAY...THE OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK...WITH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO REFINE POPS BASED OFF THE
LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS AND NEW MODEL GUIDANCE. LOCAL 12KM WRF AND
NCEP HRRR MODELS HAVE HANDLED OVERNIGHT PRECIP EVOLUTION FAIRLY WELL
AND ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TODAYS PRECIP. THEREFORE...EMPLOYED
THOSE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM TO DETERMINE
PRECIP EVOLUTION TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPANDING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN CWA BY DAY BREAK.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FADE AS IT PULLS AWAY
FROM THE MAIN LOW. SOME CONCERNS HAVE APPEARED WITH THE LATEST WV
TRENDS OF THE MID/UPPER LOWER. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ANALYZING THE LOW A
TOUCH FARTHER EAST THAN SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WOULD INDICATE. THIS
PLACES SOME DOUBT ON THE PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND THE BULK OF THE FORCING DIGS FARTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WI. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON THIS TREND
WITH SUBSEQUENT RUNS...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
ONTONAGON TO MARQUETTE. MAY NEED TO DO THIS MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS DEPENDING ON THE LATEST OBS.
EVEN WITH A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK...SOME DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH
INCREASED FORCING WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
INDUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CWA. LIGHT WINDS
INITIALLY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE SHORELINE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BEFORE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WNW THIS AFTERNOON AND
STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT. WITH ALL FACTORS IN PLACE...BEST PRECIP
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM IRONWOOD TO NEGAUNEE TO
MANISTIQUE AFTER NOON.
MUCAPE VALUES REACH A MEAGER 200 J/KG IN A VERY NARROW PROFILE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST HALF THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A STRAY RUMBLE
OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE...DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN EXTREMELY LOW COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WITH SOME CAPE TO
WORK WITH...SHOWERS COULD BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE AT TIMES.
TONIGHT...A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA...THOUGH WITH WASHED OUT MID-LEVEL FORCING AROUND...HAVE
KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A DEFORMATION/FGEN REGION
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE NORTHWEST CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY. A
3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS THIS BAND MOVES
OVERHEAD...SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH-END CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.
AS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED FOR MANY DAYS...TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL
FOR MID-JULY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WITH
THE MAIN H8 COLD-CORE OF 4-5C PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...TEMPS
WERE A BIT TRICKY. LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE WI BORDER
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. DID INCREASE
TEMPS FAR EAST AS THEY SHOULD SEE SOME HEATING EARLY ON. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THEIR MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S AROUND LATE MORNING
BEFORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AND KEEP TEMPS STEADY...OR POSSIBLY
FALLING...THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER LOWER MI 12Z TUE WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PAST THE CWA AT THAT POINT. THE TROUGH AND LOW MOVE EAST
TUE AND NORTHEAST ON WED AWAY FROM THE AREA. PCPN WILL BE SLOWLY
PULLING OUT ON TUE AND BY WED...SHOULD BE DRY. NAM SHOWS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE SLOWLY DEPARTING ON TUE. GFS SHOWS ABOUT THE SAME THING
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF AND WILL USE A BLEND OF THEM FOR THIS
FORECAST.
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
WESTERN CWA AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO DRY THEN FOR THE FORECAST TUE NIGHT THROUGH
WED NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
12Z THU. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THEN.
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE FOR FRI. ON SAT...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA FORMS AN UPPER LOW IN IT THAT MOVES INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN 12Z SAT. A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM SITS OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR SUN THEN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHOWERY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING IN OVER THE NEXT 24HRS AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE BULK OF THE SHRA
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN...THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING AT KIWD/KCMX AND PERHAPS KSAW.
INITIALLY...LOW-LEVELS ARE DRY...SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
INTO THIS MORNING. DURING THE MORNING...MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY AT KIWD/KCMX...AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY THEN PREVAIL THRU THE
DAY INTO THE NIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT IFR CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP AT KIWD UNDER UPSLOPE FLOW IF STEADIER PCPN DEVELOPS. WITH
COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
SHRA ACTIVITY THERE TODAY. AT KSAW...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN THAT CIGS FALL TO MVFR. CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS MAY
FALL TO IFR NEAR OR JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO EXITS EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND EXTENDS A TROUGH WESTWARD ACROSS
LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING S TO SW FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
347 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND THE LOW WITH SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8C/KM AND DAYTIME
HEATING SUPPORTED SCT/ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS FROM NE MN INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NW WI. OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST WINDS PREVAILED OVER
UPPER MI WITH A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AROUND A 997 MB LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY.
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SAGS TOWARD THE NRN LAKES...EXPECT
SOME ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP INTO WRN UPPER MI
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE PCPN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH. MODERATE/STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR
CONV AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST BY 06Z AND EAST OVERNIGHT
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT PCPN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MON...MID 700-500 MB TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY (700 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -6C) FOR NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE
LAND AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
MUCAPE VALUES OF 400 J/KG MAY BE POSSIBLE...WITH ONLY SHALLOW/NARROW
CAPE EXPECTED...AND LACK OF LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON UPSTREAM...NO
MENTION OF TSRA WAS ADDED. MAX TEMPS WILL STAY WELL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM NW FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER LOWER MI 12Z TUE WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PAST THE CWA AT THAT POINT. THE TROUGH AND LOW MOVE EAST
TUE AND NORTHEAST ON WED AWAY FROM THE AREA. PCPN WILL BE SLOWLY
PULLING OUT ON TUE AND BY WED...SHOULD BE DRY. NAM SHOWS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE SLOWLY DEPARTING ON TUE. GFS SHOWS ABOUT THE SAME THING
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF AND WILL USE A BLEND OF THEM FOR THIS
FORECAST.
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
WESTERN CWA AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO DRY THEN FOR THE FORECAST TUE NIGHT THROUGH
WED NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
12Z THU. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THEN.
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE FOR FRI. ON SAT...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA FORMS AN UPPER LOW IN IT THAT MOVES INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN 12Z SAT. A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM SITS OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR SUN THEN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHOWERY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING IN OVER THE NEXT 24HRS AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE BULK OF THE SHRA
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN...THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING AT KIWD/KCMX AND PERHAPS KSAW.
INITIALLY...LOW-LEVELS ARE DRY...SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
INTO THIS MORNING. DURING THE MORNING...MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY AT KIWD/KCMX...AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY THEN PREVAIL THRU THE
DAY INTO THE NIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT IFR CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP AT KIWD UNDER UPSLOPE FLOW IF STEADIER PCPN DEVELOPS. WITH
COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
SHRA ACTIVITY THERE TODAY. AT KSAW...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN THAT CIGS FALL TO MVFR. CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS MAY
FALL TO IFR NEAR OR JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
EXPECT THAT THE GUSTY WNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW
20 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND THE LOW WITH SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8C/KM AND DAYTIME
HEATING SUPPORTED SCT/ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS FROM NE MN INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NW WI. OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST WINDS PREVAILED OVER
UPPER MI WITH A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AROUND A 997 MB LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY.
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SAGS TOWARD THE NRN LAKES...EXPECT
SOME ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP INTO WRN UPPER MI
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE PCPN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH. MODERATE/STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR
CONV AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST BY 06Z AND EAST OVERNIGHT
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT PCPN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MON...MID 700-500 MB TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY (700 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -6C) FOR NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE
LAND AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
MUCAPE VALUES OF 400 J/KG MAY BE POSSIBLE...WITH ONLY SHALLOW/NARROW
CAPE EXPECTED...AND LACK OF LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON UPSTREAM...NO
MENTION OF TSRA WAS ADDED. MAX TEMPS WILL STAY WELL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM NW FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
MAIN ISSUES THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB LOW WILL
BE CENTERED OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN AROUND 00Z/15. 1000-500MB RH
SHOWS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH CO-LOCATED DEEP LAYER
FORCING...AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING QCONV. THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SET UP
LINGERS ALONG WITH A GENERAL DIURNAL NATURE TO THE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH 18Z/15...REACHING THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THE
BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THAT
AREA...HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE U.P. TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WITH CONTINUED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. HEIGHT RISES WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE
WESTERN U.P. BY 18Z/15 ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE WESTERN U.P. TO BEGIN DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS 4C TO 5C.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
COULD STAY IN THE 40S THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE WELL
BELOW THE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHICH IS AROUND 77F/55F FOR
MAX AND MIN TEMP RESPECTIVELY FOR THE NWS OFFICE.
ADDITIONALLY...DROPPED THE TEMPERATURES A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS AS IF DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA
ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE OVER THE INLAND WEST. CLOUDS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER
THE FAR EAST HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS IN THAT AREA A BIT WARMER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...TREND FOR QUIET
WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA...REACHING NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NEAR THE U.P. BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS QUITE FAR OUT FOR SPECIFIC TIMING BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE EC HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
ITS TREND OF FLIP FLOPPING DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHOWERY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING IN OVER THE NEXT 24HRS AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE BULK OF THE SHRA
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN...THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING AT KIWD/KCMX AND PERHAPS KSAW.
INITIALLY...LOW-LEVELS ARE DRY...SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
INTO THIS MORNING. DURING THE MORNING...MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY AT KIWD/KCMX...AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY THEN PREVAIL THRU THE
DAY INTO THE NIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT IFR CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP AT KIWD UNDER UPSLOPE FLOW IF STEADIER PCPN DEVELOPS. WITH
COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
SHRA ACTIVITY THERE TODAY. AT KSAW...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN THAT CIGS FALL TO MVFR. CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS MAY
FALL TO IFR NEAR OR JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
EXPECT THAT THE GUSTY WNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW
20 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
307 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE UPPER LOW AS OF 1945Z WAS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND SHOWERS
CONTINUED TO IMPACT MOST OF THE REGION. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY.
WE HAVE NOT DETECTED ANY LIGHTNING SO FAR ACROSS OUR CWA BUT THERE
WERE SOME STRONGER SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1-2
HOURS. MUCAPE VALUES RANGED FROM 100-500J/KG ACROSS THE CWA SO AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WE DO EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE SHOWERS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WE DID INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HOWEVER WE DID EVENTUALLY
DRY OUT MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY
TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE MID TO UPPER
FORTIES FOR MOST AREAS. THE RAP SUGGESTS LOWER CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO DIMINISH. THERE WERE STILL QUITE A BIT OF UPSTREAM CLOUDS.
IF WE DO CLEAR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...LOWS WILL HAVE TO BE
DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TUESDAY...BUT WE DO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS GOING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE SHOULD ALSO
SEE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT...RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
MANY WILL PROBABLY CONSIDER THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE WEEK PLEASANT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEM. THE GFS
HAS A NE TO SW ORIENTATED TROUGH MOVING SE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND INDICATES THE NORTHLAND WILL GET
SIGNIFICANT PCPN DURING THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND
GEM STALL THE TROUGH WELL NORTH OF THE NORTHLAND AND KEEP THE
NORTHLAND DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...AND TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PREFERENCE IS FOR THE ECMWF AND GEM SINCE
THESE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND VFR CIGS IN THE 2 TO 4 KFT RANGE COVERED NW
WISCONSIN AND NE MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW HOVERING OVER NW WISCONSIN. THERE WERE ALSO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT WNW TO NORTHERLY FLOW.
TERMINALS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE KHYR AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE MVFR CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
SOME GRADUAL LIFTING AND/OR SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD COVER IN NE
MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO THE SE. THE WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN LIGHT NNW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP
LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 48 68 49 73 / 60 10 10 0
INL 45 70 46 75 / 30 0 0 0
BRD 49 72 50 76 / 20 10 0 0
HYR 49 69 46 75 / 60 20 10 0
ASX 49 66 45 71 / 70 10 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
855 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AMD SOUTHERN CWA OUT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ENDING LATER THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST. AS FOR THE CURRENT
FCST...CUT POPS FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPTS. /27/
&&
.AVIATION...SO SHRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HRS
WITH HBG THE ONLY SITE THAT MAY SEE THIS. OUTSIDE
THIS...COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS SOME CONCERN FOR MVFR VIS CONDITIONS AT MEI/HBG BUT WILL ONLY
MENTION THIS AT MEI AS THIS SITE MAY SEE THE BETTER COMBO OF LESS
CLOUDS AND SOME OPPORTUNITY TO COOL BEFORE THE DRY AIR HAS AN
IMPACT. FOR WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. /CME/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014/
DISCUSSION...THE CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA. THE
BOUNDARY SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN. THE RUC HAD THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
OVER SOUTH MS...SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...SO LEFT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WENT WITH GUIDANCE...BASICALLY
CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR A LITTLE EARLIER. THE COOLER AIR WAS
STILL LAGGING...SO MOST LOCATIONS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOOKS
LIKE HATTIESBURG STILL MANAGED THE UPPER 80S.
LOOKS LIKE SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE NORTHWEST ZONES
TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE DELTA WILL BE CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT. DEWPOINTS WERE
ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S. MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS WILL BE APPROACHING
RECORD LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WITH VALUES NEAR 60. OFFICE
CONSENSUS IS SEVERAL RECORDS WILL BE SET FOR THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE
MILD AND PLEASANT FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. LESS HUMIDITY AND A COUPLE
COOL NIGHTS. MODEL RH VALUES WERE AROUND 20-25 PERCENT WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE RETURNS BY THURSDAY WITH SOME SLIGHT WARMING...A FEW
LOCATIONS NEAR 90.
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE EURO WAS A LITTLE FASTER. INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WARM AIR. MODEL INSTABILITY ALSO
INCREASES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE POPS
OR WORDING. ISOLATED THUNDER EARLY SEEMS GOOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 62 86 61 90 / 11 0 0 4
MERIDIAN 60 86 57 90 / 16 0 0 4
VICKSBURG 59 85 59 89 / 9 0 1 4
HATTIESBURG 67 89 60 92 / 20 0 0 4
NATCHEZ 63 84 60 88 / 19 0 2 5
GREENVILLE 61 84 61 86 / 0 0 1 6
GREENWOOD 58 83 59 87 / 0 0 0 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1146 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 925 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
Wavy frontal boundary stretches from southwest OK through southern
MO/IL into the Ohio Valley this evening. A very moist and moderately
unstable air mass spans both sides of the boundary with PWs around
1.80 inches and SBCAPE averaging around 1500 j/kg. Lift associated
with a 25 kt westerly LLJ and an upstream weak short wave trof
from western MO into southeast KS, continues to generate clusters
of showers and thunderstorms spanning both sides of the front. The
greatest increase in organization and coverage during the last
hour or so has been across southwest Missouri. This trend is
expected to continue through at least the remainder of the evening
as the boundary oozes southward with likely pops across the
eastern Ozarks into far southwest IL. Severe threat looks pretty
isolated with heavy downpours a greater concern. The more formidable
cold front will drop south to near the IA/MO border by 12z with a
threat of isolated showers and thunderstorms immediately ahead of
it.
Glass
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
Cold front has moved to a Effingham to St. Louis metro to Rolla
line at 20Z. Atmosphere is moderately unstable with MLCAPEs around
1000-1500 J/kg with an effective sheer of 35 kts. Still some
potential for a few severe thunderstorms capable of producing
primarily damaging winds with some large hail through the evening
hours given the amount of instability and shear in the SPC slight
risk area. Scattered thunderstorms have been developing over the
past couple of hours, primarily behind the front. A series of vort
maxes will continue to move across the area through early evening
per the RAP which will provide some modest ascent, but some
increase in overall coverage of thunderstorms should occur during
this evening over the southern and eastern parts the CWA when a
modest increase in 925-850mb moisture convergence occurs. This is
depicted well on the HRRR and NSSL-WRF simulated reflectivity.
These storms will shift south of the CWA overnight, though there
will be a slight chance of storms late tonight over northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois as a secondary cold front moves
south out of Iowa.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
(Monday through Wednesday)
The aforementioned secondary cold front will move southward through
the CWA during the day Monday as a stronger shortwave pivots
through the area. Expect additional scattered thunderstorms to
develop along front tomorrow because of this. There will be the
risk of a few severe thunderstorms along and ahead of the front
given forecast MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg and deep layer near
40kts. Storms will move out of the area by early Monday evening.
Monday should be out last warm day with 850mb temperatures between
14-18C. These temperatures will fall to between 8-12C on Tuesday
and Wednesday which should keep highs only in the lower to middle
70s. Lows on Tuesday morning look like they will fall into the
middle 50s in most areas because of decent radiational cooling and
dewpoints in the low 50s. Tuesday and Wednesday still look dry as we
will lie under subsidence in northwesterly flow aloft.
(Thursday through next Sunday)
GFS and ECMWF are still in relatively good agreement in showing that
the deep upper low that will be centered over the Great Lakes at
midweek will lift into eastern Canada on Thursday. At the same
time, another weaker upper low will be digging in behind it.
Expect a dry Thursday with the surface high bringing drier air
from the east with highs near 80 given the 850mb temperatures
around 12C. The GFS and ECMWF are in decent agreement on Friday
and Saturday that most of the precipitation associated with the
upper trough will stay to the south, so will keep the forecast
dry. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by next Sunday
as both models show a warm front moving northeast through the
area. 850mb temperatures will climb into the 17-19C range which
favor temperatures in the middle to upper 80s.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
Existing precip should be east of the terminals by 6Z. This precip
is expected to aid in fog formation overnight. The light winds and
recent rainfall will combine with a moist air mass to allow fog to
form late tonight after the clouds begin to clear. If the clouds
clear out sooner than expected...then the fog could be more dense
than currently expected. Any fog that forms should dsspt quickly
after sunrise. Attention then turns to a secondary cold front that
will drop through the region on Monday. There are some very isld
cells along the front across IA as of 0430Z. Models indicate fairly
decent coverage along the bndry by aftn...though think this may be
overdone. Given uncertainty in coverage...have held onto the VC
groups during the late morning into the aftn. Other than early
morning fog...terminals have a VFR fcst for the remainder of the prd
with winds aob 12kts.
Specifics for KSTL:
Sctrd TSTMs from this evng should be east of the terminal by 6Z.
There may be some high end MVFR fog that forms prior to sunrise
due to recent rainfall...light winds and a moist air mass. A
secondary cold front pushes thru during the aftn bringing another
chance for TSTMs. Given uncertainties with coverage...opted to
hold onto the VCTS group. Other than the possible MVFR fog early
Monday morning...the remainder of the fcst should be VFR with
winds aob 12kts.
2%
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1224 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NWRN ONTARIO WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WAS PRESENT OVER NRN MANITOBA WHILE A MID LEVEL JET
STREAK EXTENDED FROM NRN SASKATCHEWAN...SWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND
EAST INTO WISCONSIN. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER WESTERN UTAH
WITH SHORTWAVES NOTED OVER SRN IDAHO...AND OVER NERN COLORADO. WV
IMAGERY AS OF 2 PM CDT...AS A COUPLE OF AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FIRST WAS OVER NERN NEBRASKA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK...AND A SECOND OVER SERN
WYOMING INVOF OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE ENTERING WESTERN
WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MONTANA...INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...INTO SRN MINNESOTA. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WERE GUSTY OVER NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. ATTM...THE
COLDEST AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT...WAS JUST BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 76 AT
IMPERIAL TO 88 AT NORTH PLATTE.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...AN
UPDATED FORECAST IS APPROPRIATE. OTHERWISE...I USED A BLEND OF THE
CURRENT FORECAS...THE RAP13 AND THE HRRR FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
THE FRONT COMING DOWN LATE TONIGHT IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER AT LEAST A
FEW STORMS AS IT ENCOUNTERS DECENT MOISTURE AND AT LEAST
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECASTING CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DECENT FROPA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THIS EVENING...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
FORECAST AREA AS CONVECTION WILL RIDE SE FROM SERN WYOMING.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA IN THE
VICINITY OF A JET STREAK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
CANADA. LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z MONDAY. AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS. ATTM...THE BEST CHANCES HOWEVER
WILL BE IN THE EASTERN CWA...WHERE STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL RESIDE. THIS FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT
WILL BE FORCED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
DRY CONDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 IN THE
NORTHEAST...TO AROUND 80 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. NAM HAS A
BETTER HANDLE ON ACTUAL WEATHER THIS MORNING. GFS SEEMS TO BE OVER
DONE WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TERM AS COOL
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS DRAWS COLDER AIR SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK. CONTRAST
BETWEEN THIS COLD LOW AND WARM UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS OKLAHOMA MONDAY
NIGHT AND PILE UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES IN WYOMING
AND COLORADO. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST AS COOL DRY AIR FILTERS INTO NORTHERN PLAINS. NAM IS HINTING
AT STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING IN UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
THE PANHANDLE. THIS WOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. STILL
USING ENSEMBLES WITH ZERO STANDARD DEVIATION LOWS JUST ABOVE
RECORDS. RECORD LOWS FOR NORTH PLATTE IN THE MONTH OF JULY...ONE
50 AND ALL OF THE REST IN THE 40S AND FOR VALENTINE 2 RECORD LOWS
IN THE 30S THE REST IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 55
NEAR IMPERIAL TO 48 AT VALENTINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...MIXING AND DEWPOINT. AS UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BOUNDARY TO THE
WEST WILL MOVE EAST AND PLACE SOUTHWEST ZONES WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
HAVE GONE WITH SHOWERS AND ISO T. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S WITH MORE CLOUD COVER BETTER MIXED
LAYER IN RETURN FLOW AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WITH AREAS OF SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S. PRECIPITATION
ENDING WEDNESDAY EVENING AS STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND IN THE 80S SATURDAY. INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE LATEST RADAR COMPOSITE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED IN THE RAPID UPDATE MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING.
HOWEVER...THEIR COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXPECTED EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SO OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT ANY ONE SITE.
STILL...AS THINGS EVOLVE IT MAY BECOME NECESSARY TO INCLUDE TS OR
VCTS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR LBF AND/OR VTN IF A PROJECTED
PATH IS TOWARD EITHER TERMINAL.
ALSO...ONE SHORT TERM MODEL IS SIGNALING FG/BR AT LBF 10-13Z. OTHER
SHORT RANGE PROJECTIONS DO NOT INDICATE FG/BR SO...FOR THE TIME
BEING...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST FOR LBF.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE ACTIVE NOW IN NORTH
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF NEW MEXICO WITH AN EXPANSION INTO NORTHWESTERN
AND WEST CENTRAL PARTS ALSO EXPECTED. THESE STORMS IN NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
MORE VIGOROUS CELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEFTY DOWNPOURS...SMALL
HAIL...AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE ALSO
CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND WILL BE
DRIFTING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 16/0300UTC. ALL STORMS
WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH THIS EVENING WITH
ACTIVITY BEING SHOWN TO PERSIST BEYOND MIDNIGHT VIA HIGH
RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE
CONCENTRATED OVERNIGHT IN WEST CENTRAL AREAS AND IN EAST CENTRAL
AREAS JUST TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AFTER
CONVECTION DISPERSES TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...A LULL IN
STORMS IS EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY WITH
MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...316 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. RECENT BURN SCARS AND AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE AT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL
STORM ACTIVITY WILL TREND DOWN THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A PWAT VALUE AROUND 1.21 INCHES...WHICH IS
OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINS. RECENT BURN SCARS AS WELL AS AREAS HAVING RECENTLY
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DELAYED INITIATION. THE HRRR AND RUC
DEPICT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE GILA MOUNTAINS AS THE BEST
AREAS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH IS HOLDING
TRUE BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE N
TO S...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH NE NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH AN ATTENDANT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA DUE TO INCREASED
CAPE...SHEAR...AND LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -2 AND -6. THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. LOWERED TEMPS A LITTLE MORE
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS WEDNESDAY
DESPITE SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO NW NM.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TREND DOWN THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RE-CENTERS OVER SOUTHWEST NM.
STORMS WILL BE LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT MAY INCREASE
CHANCES ACROSS THE NE. DRIER AIR UNDERNEATH THE HIGH WILL WORK
INTO WESTERN NM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FURTHER LIMITING STORM
COVERAGE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. WITH THE HIGH MOVING BACK
OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND...BECOMING NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
MODELS HINT FOR A RETURN OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REDEVELOPING THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. BUT STILL LATE IN THE RUNS TO PUT MUCH STOCK IN THAT
OUTLOOK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. ONE
MORE DAY OF WIDESPREAD MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE GRADUAL DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE GOT WORKED OVER BY YESTERDAY/LAST
NIGHTS RAIN. THUS A MORE STABLE START. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A MATURE MCV OR SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY. OTHER AREAS WILL BE SLOW TO
DEVELOP DUE TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS RAIN. NOT EXPECTING NEAR THE COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND STORMS TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL BE PRETTY GOOD WITH HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
THE STAGE IS SET FOR A PRETTY DYNAMIC PERIOD STARTING WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE THAT CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER MONTANA WILL DROP DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A CORRESPONDING SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE UP
WITH THE MAIN WETTING RAIN FOCUS PLACED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AND
PROVIDE A DECENT FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. MORE NOTICEABLE WILL BE THE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND GRADIENT FOUND
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. MODERATELY BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FAIRLY EARLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. A
MORE NORTHERLY COLD FRONTAL PUNCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RECYCLING OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FIRE UP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS THURSDAY AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CELL ACTIVITY WILL BE
MUCH MORE LIMITED ACROSS THE WEST WITH SMALLER FOOTPRINTS OF
MOISTURE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS THAT WILL FILTER
IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING. STILL SEEING SOME
LOCALIZED HAINES 6 VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
AREA. LOW/MID TEEN RH VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAN JUAN
PLATEAU....MUCH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. A FEW
WEST/NORTHWEST RESIDUAL BREEZES ACROSS THE WEST. ANY CELLS THAT DO
FOR SHOULD CONTAIN SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW/DOWNDRAFT WINDS DUE TO THE MID
LEVEL DRYING.
CAN SEE A BRIEF APPEARANCE OF A WESTERLY PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL COME UP BUT EXPECT THAT TO BE
A BRIEF ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES AND DROP HUMIDITY VALUES
ACCORDINGLY. LOOKING AT MORE NUMEROUS TEEN READINGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME BUILDUPS BUT WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINT WOULD BE SMALL IF NOT NONEXISTENT. THIS MEANS A MIX OF
WET/DRY STORMS WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW/DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHWARD AND AFFECT NEW MEXICO/S WEATHER
DURING THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM AND EVENTUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS. HUMIDITY
VALUES SHOULD LOWER AREAWIDE BUT NOT EXPECTING VALUES TO DROP OUT OF
SITE LIKE JUNE READINGS. STILL LOOKING AT SOME HAINES 6 READINGS. AS
THE HEAT PUMP BUILDS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY FLOW BACK
INTO THE UPPER HIGH FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS APPEARS TO BE A
GRADUAL PROCESS BASED ON CURRENT AND PAST MODEL TRENDS. THUS...A
DOWN TREND IN MONSOONAL WETTING RAIN IS INEVITABLE AND EXPECTED FOR
A FEW DAYS.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. RESIDUAL MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS ALSO
IMPACTING A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA. DECIDED TO TAME DOWN TS THREAT
AT MANY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...GUP/FMN/ROW HAVE DECENT CHANCE AT
BEING IMPACTED BY TS OR SH AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE
EVENING. FMN LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LATER BASED ON UPSTREAM
SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS. CARRYING VCSH AT AEG/SAF/ABQ AND TCC
AS A PLACEHOLDER UNTIL DISTINCT PRECIPITATION/CELL TRENDS CAN BE
DISTINGUISHED. PROBABLY IMPACT RG VALLEY LOCATIONS LATER IN THE
DAY. NOT LOOKING AT NEARLY AS MUCH ACTIVITY TONIGHT COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT. FAVORING WESTERN AREAS THOUGH.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
314 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD REMAINS ON TAP THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE STATE. THE REPLENISHMENT OF MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR AN ACTIVE TUESDAY AREA WIDE. THEN YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD STORMS. CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTER MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. ON
THURSDAY...WESTERN AREAS WILL DRY OUT SOME...BUT EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WILL STILL REMAIN ACTIVE. STORM COVERAGE WILL LESSEN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE EVENING ON TAP TONIGHT. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT RACING
DOWN THE PLAINS OF COLORADO WILL SOON MOVE INTO NE NM. STORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT AND EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NM PLAINS AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH AND FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. SEVERAL
CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE LOCAL WRF SHOW
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT. A COMBINATION OF
THE FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM AS
WELL. BOTTOM LINE IS ANYWHERE MAY RECEIVE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THIS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.
THE MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY ON TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW MUCH THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WORKED OVER FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION...BUT EVEN
IF IT IS A LATER START TOMORROW...IT STILL IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
ACTIVE. MUCH LIKE TONIGHT...THE LOCAL WRF IS SHOWING CONVECTION
FIRST DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN AND NE NM...AND STEERING FLOW WILL
TAKE THE STORMS SOUTHWARD...AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/BUMPER CAR
EFFECT WILL ALLOW STORM COVERAGE TO EXPAND AS THEY HEAD SOUTH.
SHOULD ALSO SEE STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...BUT
OTHER FOCI FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO NE NM ON WEDNESDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES TOWARD NM IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND LIFT FROM THE FRONT PLUS
A REPLENISHMENT OF MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN YET
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND HIGH TERRAIN.
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT COULD BE ARGUED FOR ALMOST
ANYWHERE. IF WIDESPREAD STORMS OCCUR TONIGHT...THE GROUND WILL BE
PRIMED...AKA SOILS MAY BECOME SATURATED...SUCH THAT ADDITIONAL
STORMS TUES/WED MAY LEAD TO QUICKER RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING.
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY SQUEAK THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO GIVEN MODEST NW FLOW
ALOFT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO WESTERN NM ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE BACKED UP TO THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NUMEROUS STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
THURSDAY...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND SEWD. THUS...FLOODING WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN OVER EASTERN NM.
AS THE UPPER HIGH NUDGES NEAR AND OVER NM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...STORM COVERAGE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE. SOME RECYCLING
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR...THUS...A FEW STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STORMS
WILL BE OVER. THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN OVER NM OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THUS THE BIGGER STORY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
MAY BE THE HEAT AND POTENTIAL FOR TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE
EAST.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK. INITIAL HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH
WETTING RAIN CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
DRYING/WARMING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
STORM COVERAGE WILL INTENSIFY REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PUSHES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. WETTING RAIN WILL BE COMMONPLACE MOST AREAS WITH A LARGE
FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE LARGE AREAS OF
WETTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE.
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT FOCUS
MECHANISM FOR WETTING RAIN AND MOST LIKELY FAVOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGHER SIDE WEDNESDAY BUT LOWER
SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO TUESDAY MOST AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
FOR THE COLD FRONT BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING IT FOR THE PAST
WEEK. WHAT IS LESS CONFIDENT IS HOW FAR WEST THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING IT STALLING WITHIN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OR JUST TO THE WEST THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE STAGE IS SET FOR A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND THE
PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS RISING. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS PACIFIC TROUGH A STRONG MID
LEVEL DRY INTRUSION FOUND ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WOULD SINK SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SPOTTY
HAINES 6 VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BUT BECOME MORE APPARENT AND EXPAND DURING THE
WEEKEND. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WOULD LESSEN AND AFTERNOON READINGS
WOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WOULD TREND BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE FOOTPRINT OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD ALSO SHRINK CONSIDERABLY AND FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD. OUTFLOW/DOWNDRAFT WIND STRENGTHS WOULD INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRYING.
BREEZIEST CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOW
WINDS...APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST.
LONG RANGE MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
BUILDING AND INTENSIFYING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BACK OVER THE AREA
THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS HEAT PUMP SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE
QUITE SIGNIFICANT AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PAINTING THE STRONGEST
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OF THE YEAR THUS FAR FOR THIS PERIOD. WOULD HAVE TO
EXPECT HEAT WAVE LIKE TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS WITH
EVENTUALLY SOME RELIEF FROM A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT UNDERCUTTING THE
HIGH ACROSS THE EAST. WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE OPPRESSIVE RIDGE AND MOST LIKELY
DOMINANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT THAT COULD CHANGE SOME DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE HIGH CENTER. COULD RETURN BACK
TO LATE JUNE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...INCLUDING STRONG
OUTFLOWS/DOWNDRAFTS...ALTHOUGH FUEL MOISTURE VALUES HAVE RISEN QUITE
A BIT THANKS TO RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SO FIRE DANGER
LEVELS WOULD BE TEMPERED SOME.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY/TONIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED THAT ALL TERMINAL SITES WOULD
BE IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY. SOME SITES HAVE MORE POTENTIAL THAN
OTHERS INCLUDING SOME VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHORT TERM HEAVY
RAIN. VRB GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO PLAGUE MANY OF THE SITES. MVFR
CIGS DUE TO PASSING STORMS WILL BE MOST POSSIBLE AT LVS/TCC DUE TO
COLD FRONTAL EFFECTS THERE. AS THE SH/TS DECLINE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME RESIDUAL LOW
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PLAINS SITES. TCC HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF OBSERVING THAT ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT LVS.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 65 91 66 92 / 50 40 40 20
DULCE........................... 53 83 54 85 / 50 50 50 40
CUBA............................ 57 83 56 83 / 50 60 60 40
GALLUP.......................... 59 86 61 85 / 60 50 50 30
EL MORRO........................ 56 80 55 80 / 50 50 60 50
GRANTS.......................... 58 85 58 84 / 50 50 60 40
QUEMADO......................... 57 80 57 80 / 50 50 50 50
GLENWOOD........................ 61 87 59 88 / 40 50 40 30
CHAMA........................... 49 79 49 78 / 60 60 60 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 81 59 80 / 50 40 50 40
PECOS........................... 54 77 56 77 / 70 60 50 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 78 52 78 / 60 50 50 40
RED RIVER....................... 47 70 46 71 / 60 60 60 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 48 74 47 74 / 60 60 50 60
TAOS............................ 56 81 54 81 / 50 50 50 40
MORA............................ 54 76 53 77 / 70 60 50 60
ESPANOLA........................ 61 85 61 86 / 50 40 50 30
SANTA FE........................ 57 81 59 83 / 60 50 50 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 86 60 87 / 50 50 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 86 65 86 / 50 50 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 89 68 89 / 50 40 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 90 66 90 / 50 40 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 89 67 90 / 50 40 50 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 92 66 92 / 50 30 50 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 90 67 91 / 50 40 50 30
SOCORRO......................... 68 93 68 93 / 50 30 40 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 85 59 86 / 50 50 50 40
TIJERAS......................... 59 85 60 85 / 50 50 50 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 82 58 82 / 60 60 50 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 80 58 82 / 70 60 50 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 83 61 84 / 60 40 50 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 85 64 86 / 50 40 40 40
RUIDOSO......................... 57 80 58 82 / 50 50 50 50
CAPULIN......................... 57 78 56 79 / 50 50 50 60
RATON........................... 58 81 57 82 / 50 50 50 50
SPRINGER........................ 58 82 58 84 / 60 50 50 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 79 57 81 / 70 60 50 50
CLAYTON......................... 60 82 61 85 / 60 40 50 50
ROY............................. 59 79 62 82 / 70 50 50 50
CONCHAS......................... 65 86 66 90 / 70 50 50 50
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 86 65 88 / 70 60 50 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 65 87 66 92 / 70 50 40 50
CLOVIS.......................... 63 83 63 89 / 70 50 50 40
PORTALES........................ 64 86 65 91 / 70 50 50 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 87 67 91 / 70 50 40 40
ROSWELL......................... 70 93 68 95 / 40 20 30 20
PICACHO......................... 63 86 65 88 / 40 30 40 40
ELK............................. 60 80 62 83 / 40 30 50 50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
815 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK THIS
EVENING AND THEN INTO VERMONT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY. A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR MASS WILL RETURN LATER WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 815 PM EDT TUESDAY...HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...FEEL RAINFALL WILL
NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
SHOWING A FINE LINE OF SHOWERS ENTERING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP ALSO SHOWING THIS
FINE LINE EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER. THIS IS THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING THE REGION AT THIS TIME. DEW POINTS
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK STATE HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S AT THIS
TIME... ESPECIALLY AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE BEST CHANCES AND
HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS
VERMONT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN VERMONT OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 420 PM EDT TUESDAY...ONE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AROUND 1.5" AND THINK ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
STORMS COULD PRODUCE THOSE AMOUNTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CAPE AROUND 1000 AND PWATS AROUND 1.8" STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. HRRR AND HIRESARW DOING WELL DEPICTING WHAT WE ALREADY SEE
ON RADAR AND HAVE FOLLOWED FOR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BASICALLY
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND
OUT OF VERMONT BY 00-03Z. A SECOND LINE IS POSSIBLE AS FRONT GETS
CLOSER INTO OVERNIGHT. FROM 00-12Z MAINLY EXPECT PRECIP ACROSS
VERMONT...FINALLY CLEARING EASTWARD SOMETIME AFTER 12Z. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE AREA AS
UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS KEEP VERMONT
MAINTAINING GOOD LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. HAVE DROPPED
MENTION OF THUNDER AFTER 03Z WITH MOST INSTABILITY GONE AT THAT
POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL START OUT
CLOUDY STILL ACROSS VERMONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR EASTERN VERMONT AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. HAVE TAPERED OFF PRECIP
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND LOW LEVEL RH
DECREASES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL...UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
10 MPH. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND DAMP GROUND WITH LIGHT WINDS COULD SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY FOG PRONE SPOTS. MIN TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH SOME 50S EXPECTED. THURSDAY WILL FEEL
MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. HAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH SOME MINOR INSTABILITY DUE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THU AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO WED NIGHT...MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HAVE SOME
VERY LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MODELS
INDICATE SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED AS WELL AS MOISTURE. EVENTUALLY WARMER AND INCREASINGLY
MORE HUMID AIR WILL ADVECT BACK INTO OUR CWA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...THOUGH CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE VFR...AM
WATCHING DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IN CENTRAL NY
STATE AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR VISIBILITY IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WILL COVER WITH PREVAILING VCSH AND TEMPO IN LOWER VISIBILITY PER
RADAR TRENDS. NOTICEABLE WINDSHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM SOUTH
TO WEST- SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10KTS - WITH TIMING GENERALLY 07-08Z
MSS- SLK- PBG-BTV AND 09-10Z FOR RUT AND MPV. CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE SLOW AS BKN DECK OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND EVEN IN
THE POST- FRONTAL AIRMASS. THUS FEEL FOG/MIST THREAT IS MINIMAL -
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH NEAR-SFC
WINDS.
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY. COLD ADVECTION REGIME
ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE SCT-BKN CU COVERAGE WITH BASES AROUND 4-6KFT
AND OCCASIONAL WEST GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS WILL BE PSBL THURSDAY AFTN WITH BRIEF MVFR.
00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...MORNING
FOG/BR WL BE LIKELY ON FRI AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY...AT SLK/MPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 815 PM EDT TUESDAY...HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
FEEL ANY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
FLASH FLOODING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS VERMONT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN VERMONT. ALSO...ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
726 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK THIS
EVENING THEN INTO VERMONT OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN VERMONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY. A DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL RETURN LATER WEDNESDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 420 PM EDT TUESDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AROUND 1.5" AND THINK ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD PRODUCE THOSE AMOUNTS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CAPE AROUND 1000 AND PWATS AROUND 1.8"
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR AND HIRESARW DOING WELL
DEPICTING WHAT WE ALREADY SEE ON RADAR AND HAVE FOLLOWED FOR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BASICALLY EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF VERMONT BY 00-03Z. A
SECOND LINE IS POSSIBLE AS FRONT GETS CLOSER INTO OVERNIGHT. FROM
00-12Z MAINLY EXPECT PRECIP ACROSS VERMONT...FINALLY CLEARING
EASTWARD SOMETIME AFTER 12Z. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN WARM
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE AREA AS UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS KEEP VERMONT MAINTAINING
GOOD LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF
THUNDER AFTER 03Z WITH MOST INSTABILITY GONE AT THAT POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL START OUT
CLOUDY STILL ACROSS VERMONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR EASTERN VERMONT AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. HAVE TAPERED OFF PRECIP
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND LOW LEVEL RH
DECREASES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL...UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
10 MPH. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND DAMP GROUND WITH LIGHT WINDS COULD SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY FOG PRONE SPOTS. MIN TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH SOME 50S EXPECTED. THURSDAY WILL FEEL
MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. HAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH SOME MINOR INSTABILITY DUE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THU AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO WED NIGHT...MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HAVE SOME
VERY LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MODELS
INDICATE SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED AS WELL AS MOISTURE. EVENTUALLY WARMER AND INCREASINGLY
MORE HUMID AIR WILL ADVECT BACK INTO OUR CWA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...THOUGH CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE VFR...AM
WATCHING DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IN CENTRAL NY
STATE AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR VISIBILITY IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WILL COVER WITH PREVAILING VCSH AND TEMPO IN LOWER VISIBILITY PER
RADAR TRENDS. NOTICEABLE WINDSHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM SOUTH
TO WEST- SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10KTS - WITH TIMING GENERALLY 07-08Z
MSS- SLK- PBG-BTV AND 09-10Z FOR RUT AND MPV. CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE SLOW AS BKN DECK OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND EVEN IN
THE POST- FRONTAL AIRMASS. THUS FEEL FOG/MIST THREAT IS MINIMAL -
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH NEAR-SFC
WINDS.
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY. COLD ADVECTION REGIME
ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE SCT-BKN CU COVERAGE WITH BASES AROUND 4-6KFT
AND OCCASIONAL WEST GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS WILL BE PSBL THURSDAY AFTN WITH BRIEF MVFR.
00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...MORNING
FOG/BR WL BE LIKELY ON FRI AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY...AT SLK/MPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...BUT FORTUNATELY
STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ALONG AND NOT PUTTING DOWN EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN ANY ONE LOCATION. RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
SHOWN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS PUTTING DOWN 3/4 TO ONE INCH IN ABOUT AN
HOUR IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST VERMONT. GUIDANCE SHOWING 1.5
INCH OR MORE IN AN HOUR NEEDED FOR FLASH FLOODING AND NOT HITTING
THAT THRESHOLD YET. MAIN DANGER IS TO LOOK OUT FOR AREAS HIT
REPEATEDLY BY PASSING STORMS. HI RESOLUTION MODELS TRENDING TOWARD
A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION/RAINFALL LATER ON WITH THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT, AND WILL NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF AREAS THAT HAVE
PREVIOUSLY RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ028-030-031-
034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
249 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NOT CHANGES. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
SOON AS WE HAVE BEEN BUSY WITH STORM FOLLOWUP FROM YESTERDAY.
REFER TO THE LATEST PNS FOR THE CONFIRMATION OF AN EF1 TORNADO
FROM READING, NY YESTERDAY.
250 AM UPDATE... AFT WIDESPREAD SVR WX TDA WILL CATCH A
QUICK BREATH BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND STARTS THIS AFTN. H5 LOWS ARE
PINWHEELING ARND EACH OTHER ACRS CANADA LEAVING A MEAN TROF FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CWA RMNS IN A SOUPY AIRMASS WITH JUST A
1-3 DEGREE DWPT DEPRESSION. LGT WINDS AND CLRNG SKIES HV SET THE
STAGE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG DIFFUSE BNDRY FM NEW ENGLAND BACK INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE. 00Z NAM HAS
A HORRIBLE HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDS AND IS ALREADY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
CONVECTION ACRS SRN PA WHEREAS LATEST RUC HAS BETTER HANDLE. HV RMVD
POPS ACRS NEPA THRU 12Z WITH JUST ISOLD SHOWERS THRU 15Z AND THEN
INCRS TO LKLY TWD 18Z AS NEXT WV APPCHS FM THE SOUTHWEST. CAPES
EXPECTED TO RUN THE GAMUT FM ARND 100 (RAP) TO ~ 1000 (GFS AND LOCAL
WRF) ACRS SERN ZONES THIS AFTN. THIS DEPENDS ON T/TD VALUES BEING
HANDLED BY THE MODELS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GFS HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON SFC T/TD FIELDS WITH RUC BEING COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH
WITH TD VALUES AT 18Z OVR NEPA IN THE LWR 50S. HV SEEN THIS RECENTLY
IN THE RUC/RAP FIELDS WITH BLYR CONDS BEING TOO DRY, THUS DO NOT
TRUST THIS AND WL TEND MORE TWD GFS. HWVR, THINK GFS IS TOO BULLISH
ON HIGH TEMPS ACRS NEPA AND WL LEAN MORE TWD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS, WITH CAPE VALUES POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 800-900 J/KG OVR
NEPA FOR THIS AFTN.
THAT BEING SAID, HV GONE WITH LKLY THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A MONTICELLO TO SCRANTON LINE THIS AFTN. SHEAR WL NOT BE AS WELL
ORGANIZED TDA THUS THINKING THAT SVR STORMS WL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD,
THO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE HVY RAINFALL WITH
PW VALUES OF 1-2 SD AND POSSIBLY SLOW-MVG STORMS. THIS THREAT AREA
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL YDA WITH A STRIPE
OF 1-3 INCH STORM TOTAL QPF FM NRN BRADFORD THRU SRN BROOME INTO
EXTRM NRN SULLIVAN CNTY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THESE
AREAS THIS AFTN, THUS WL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FEEL THAT
THIS IS MORE WORTHY OF A SHORT-FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AFTER
CONVECTION DVLPS.
IN ADDITION TO NEPA AFTR A BRIEF BUBBLE HIGH TAKES SHAPE ACRS NRN
ZONES THIS MRNG, MODELS ARE HINTING A MESO-LOW DVLPS ACRS THE
FINGER LKS THIS AFTN. THIS WL LKLY LEAD TO AN ADDNL AREA OF LKLY
CONVECTION, THO NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE SVR AT THIS TIME AND WITH
PW VALUES ARND 1.5 INCHES LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING STRONG H2 SPEED MAX
LIFTING ACRS SRN CANADA THIS AFTN, WHICH WUD PLACE CWA IN
FAVORABLE RRQ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
AIRMASS WL CONTINUE TO BE SOGGY WITH CWA SITTING WELL INTO WMSECTOR
TONIGHT. SFC LOPRES CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR LK SUPERIOR WL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SET UP SHOP OVR LK HURON/GEORGIAN BAY AREA BY
06Z. THIS WL KEEP WVS RIDING UP IN SRLY FLOW AFFECTING THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER H2 SPEED MAX PROGGED TO IMPACT AREA MVG TWD AREA FM THE NW
BY 12Z. THIS WL SERVE TO EXPAND CHC THUNDER OVR MOST OF CWA AND
COUPLED WITH S/WVS RIDING NORTH ARND BASE OF UL TROF WL BE TUFF TO
PINPOINT WHERE BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION WL BE. THUS WL KEEP JUST GNRL
THUNDER IN AT THIS TIME.
SFC LOW WL MV UP INTO SRN ON AND QC LATE TUE AFTN AND OCCLUDE OUT AS
IT DOES SO. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON BNDRY MVG THRU WITH 00Z
GFS CONTINUING TO BE FASTER MVG DRY AIR INTO WRN ZONES AFT 18Z
TUESDAY WHEREAS GFS IS ABOUT 6 HRS QUICKER. INTERESTING THAT 00Z
EURO IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE NAM IS WITH DRIER AIR NOT MVG IN UNTIL
CLOSER TO 06Z WED. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT EURO IS SLOWEST OF
ALL MODELS TO EJECT H5 LOW OUT. WL SIDE MORE TWD NAM WHICH IS THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN WITH MVMNT OF FROPA.
BNDRY MVS THRU CWA TUE NGT TAKING PCPN WITH IT DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.
THIS BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH IT WITH MINS DIPPING INTO THE
50S BY WED MRNG. UL TROF WL TAKE ITS SWEET TIME MVG THRU CWA WITH
SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS WED AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE UNSEASONABLY STRONG OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTARL U.S. THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING A
PARADE OF SYSTEMS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
START OUT QUIET WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WARMING TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS OVER PA. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEING AT AVP. BRIEF PDS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. AFTER THE
SHOWERS END THIS EVENING AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY AT ELM. AFTER THE FOG CLEARS BY 15Z TUESDAY SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCT- BKN CU AROUND 5 KFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 18Z AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS EXCEPT LOCALLY STRONGER NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT THRU FRIDAY... MOSTLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
203 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NOT CHANGES. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
SOON AS WE HAVE BEEN BUSY WITH STORM FOLLOWUP FROM YESTERDAY.
REFER TO THE LATEST PNS FOR THE CONFIRMATION OF AN EF1 TORNADO
FROM READING, NY YESTERDAY.
250 AM UPDATE... AFT WIDESPREAD SVR WX TDA WILL CATCH A
QUICK BREATH BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND STARTS THIS AFTN. H5 LOWS ARE
PINWHEELING ARND EACH OTHER ACRS CANADA LEAVING A MEAN TROF FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CWA RMNS IN A SOUPY AIRMASS WITH JUST A
1-3 DEGREE DWPT DEPRESSION. LGT WINDS AND CLRNG SKIES HV SET THE
STAGE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG DIFFUSE BNDRY FM NEW ENGLAND BACK INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE. 00Z NAM HAS
A HORRIBLE HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDS AND IS ALREADY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
CONVECTION ACRS SRN PA WHEREAS LATEST RUC HAS BETTER HANDLE. HV RMVD
POPS ACRS NEPA THRU 12Z WITH JUST ISOLD SHOWERS THRU 15Z AND THEN
INCRS TO LKLY TWD 18Z AS NEXT WV APPCHS FM THE SOUTHWEST. CAPES
EXPECTED TO RUN THE GAMUT FM ARND 100 (RAP) TO ~ 1000 (GFS AND LOCAL
WRF) ACRS SERN ZONES THIS AFTN. THIS DEPENDS ON T/TD VALUES BEING
HANDLED BY THE MODELS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GFS HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON SFC T/TD FIELDS WITH RUC BEING COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH
WITH TD VALUES AT 18Z OVR NEPA IN THE LWR 50S. HV SEEN THIS RECENTLY
IN THE RUC/RAP FIELDS WITH BLYR CONDS BEING TOO DRY, THUS DO NOT
TRUST THIS AND WL TEND MORE TWD GFS. HWVR, THINK GFS IS TOO BULLISH
ON HIGH TEMPS ACRS NEPA AND WL LEAN MORE TWD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS, WITH CAPE VALUES POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 800-900 J/KG OVR
NEPA FOR THIS AFTN.
THAT BEING SAID, HV GONE WITH LKLY THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A MONTICELLO TO SCRANTON LINE THIS AFTN. SHEAR WL NOT BE AS WELL
ORGANIZED TDA THUS THINKING THAT SVR STORMS WL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD,
THO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE HVY RAINFALL WITH
PW VALUES OF 1-2 SD AND POSSIBLY SLOW-MVG STORMS. THIS THREAT AREA
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL YDA WITH A STRIPE
OF 1-3 INCH STORM TOTAL QPF FM NRN BRADFORD THRU SRN BROOME INTO
EXTRM NRN SULLIVAN CNTY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THESE
AREAS THIS AFTN, THUS WL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FEEL THAT
THIS IS MORE WORTHY OF A SHORT-FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AFTER
CONVECTION DVLPS.
IN ADDITION TO NEPA AFTR A BRIEF BUBBLE HIGH TAKES SHAPE ACRS NRN
ZONES THIS MRNG, MODELS ARE HINTING A MESO-LOW DVLPS ACRS THE
FINGER LKS THIS AFTN. THIS WL LKLY LEAD TO AN ADDNL AREA OF LKLY
CONVECTION, THO NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE SVR AT THIS TIME AND WITH
PW VALUES ARND 1.5 INCHES LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING STRONG H2 SPEED MAX
LIFTING ACRS SRN CANADA THIS AFTN, WHICH WUD PLACE CWA IN
FAVORABLE RRQ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
AIRMASS WL CONTINUE TO BE SOGGY WITH CWA SITTING WELL INTO WMSECTOR
TONIGHT. SFC LOPRES CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR LK SUPERIOR WL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SET UP SHOP OVR LK HURON/GEORGIAN BAY AREA BY
06Z. THIS WL KEEP WVS RIDING UP IN SRLY FLOW AFFECTING THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER H2 SPEED MAX PROGGED TO IMPACT AREA MVG TWD AREA FM THE NW
BY 12Z. THIS WL SERVE TO EXPAND CHC THUNDER OVR MOST OF CWA AND
COUPLED WITH S/WVS RIDING NORTH ARND BASE OF UL TROF WL BE TUFF TO
PINPOINT WHERE BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION WL BE. THUS WL KEEP JUST GNRL
THUNDER IN AT THIS TIME.
SFC LOW WL MV UP INTO SRN ON AND QC LATE TUE AFTN AND OCCLUDE OUT AS
IT DOES SO. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON BNDRY MVG THRU WITH 00Z
GFS CONTINUING TO BE FASTER MVG DRY AIR INTO WRN ZONES AFT 18Z
TUESDAY WHEREAS GFS IS ABOUT 6 HRS QUICKER. INTERESTING THAT 00Z
EURO IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE NAM IS WITH DRIER AIR NOT MVG IN UNTIL
CLOSER TO 06Z WED. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT EURO IS SLOWEST OF
ALL MODELS TO EJECT H5 LOW OUT. WL SIDE MORE TWD NAM WHICH IS THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN WITH MVMNT OF FROPA.
BNDRY MVS THRU CWA TUE NGT TAKING PCPN WITH IT DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.
THIS BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH IT WITH MINS DIPPING INTO THE
50S BY WED MRNG. UL TROF WL TAKE ITS SWEET TIME MVG THRU CWA WITH
SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS WED AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
THE BIG STORY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPS, AND A POSSIBLE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DURING THIS PERIOD A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST BUT A POP UP
SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVER CENTRAL
TX, WE AREN`T QUITE OUT OF THE WOODS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS WE
HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AS THIS TROF MOVES EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT
MOISTURE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TIMING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOISTURE GETS IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE OLDER RUNS OF THE
GFS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO, BRINGING IN SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE EURO NOT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
WHATEVER THE CASE IT DOES APPEAR CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND ITSELF. ON THE FRONT END I PUT IN JUST A 20%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NEPA FRIDAY BUT SAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SAT/SUN.
IF THE PATTERN HOLDS CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED THIS
WEEKEND BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS OVER PA. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEING AT AVP. BRIEF PDS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. AFTER THE
SHOWERS END THIS EVENING AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY AT ELM. AFTER THE FOG CLEARS BY 15Z TUESDAY SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCT- BKN CU AROUND 5 KFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 18Z AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS EXCEPT LOCALLY STRONGER NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT THRU FRIDAY... MOSTLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1114 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NOT CHANGES. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
SOON AS WE HAVE BEEN BUSY WITH STORM FOLLOWUP FROM YESTERDAY.
REFER TO THE LATEST PNS FOR THE CONFIRMATION OF AN EF1 TORNADO
FROM READING, NY YESTERDAY.
250 AM UPDATE... AFT WIDESPREAD SVR WX TDA WILL CATCH A
QUICK BREATH BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND STARTS THIS AFTN. H5 LOWS ARE
PINWHEELING ARND EACH OTHER ACRS CANADA LEAVING A MEAN TROF FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CWA RMNS IN A SOUPY AIRMASS WITH JUST A
1-3 DEGREE DWPT DEPRESSION. LGT WINDS AND CLRNG SKIES HV SET THE
STAGE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG DIFFUSE BNDRY FM NEW ENGLAND BACK INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE. 00Z NAM HAS
A HORRIBLE HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDS AND IS ALREADY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
CONVECTION ACRS SRN PA WHEREAS LATEST RUC HAS BETTER HANDLE. HV RMVD
POPS ACRS NEPA THRU 12Z WITH JUST ISOLD SHOWERS THRU 15Z AND THEN
INCRS TO LKLY TWD 18Z AS NEXT WV APPCHS FM THE SOUTHWEST. CAPES
EXPECTED TO RUN THE GAMUT FM ARND 100 (RAP) TO ~ 1000 (GFS AND LOCAL
WRF) ACRS SERN ZONES THIS AFTN. THIS DEPENDS ON T/TD VALUES BEING
HANDLED BY THE MODELS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GFS HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON SFC T/TD FIELDS WITH RUC BEING COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH
WITH TD VALUES AT 18Z OVR NEPA IN THE LWR 50S. HV SEEN THIS RECENTLY
IN THE RUC/RAP FIELDS WITH BLYR CONDS BEING TOO DRY, THUS DO NOT
TRUST THIS AND WL TEND MORE TWD GFS. HWVR, THINK GFS IS TOO BULLISH
ON HIGH TEMPS ACRS NEPA AND WL LEAN MORE TWD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS, WITH CAPE VALUES POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 800-900 J/KG OVR
NEPA FOR THIS AFTN.
THAT BEING SAID, HV GONE WITH LKLY THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A MONTICELLO TO SCRANTON LINE THIS AFTN. SHEAR WL NOT BE AS WELL
ORGANIZED TDA THUS THINKING THAT SVR STORMS WL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD,
THO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE HVY RAINFALL WITH
PW VALUES OF 1-2 SD AND POSSIBLY SLOW-MVG STORMS. THIS THREAT AREA
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL YDA WITH A STRIPE
OF 1-3 INCH STORM TOTAL QPF FM NRN BRADFORD THRU SRN BROOME INTO
EXTRM NRN SULLIVAN CNTY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THESE
AREAS THIS AFTN, THUS WL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FEEL THAT
THIS IS MORE WORTHY OF A SHORT-FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AFTER
CONVECTION DVLPS.
IN ADDITION TO NEPA AFTR A BRIEF BUBBLE HIGH TAKES SHAPE ACRS NRN
ZONES THIS MRNG, MODELS ARE HINTING A MESO-LOW DVLPS ACRS THE
FINGER LKS THIS AFTN. THIS WL LKLY LEAD TO AN ADDNL AREA OF LKLY
CONVECTION, THO NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE SVR AT THIS TIME AND WITH
PW VALUES ARND 1.5 INCHES LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING STRONG H2 SPEED MAX
LIFTING ACRS SRN CANADA THIS AFTN, WHICH WUD PLACE CWA IN
FAVORABLE RRQ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
AIRMASS WL CONTINUE TO BE SOGGY WITH CWA SITTING WELL INTO WMSECTOR
TONIGHT. SFC LOPRES CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR LK SUPERIOR WL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SET UP SHOP OVR LK HURON/GEORGIAN BAY AREA BY
06Z. THIS WL KEEP WVS RIDING UP IN SRLY FLOW AFFECTING THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER H2 SPEED MAX PROGGED TO IMPACT AREA MVG TWD AREA FM THE NW
BY 12Z. THIS WL SERVE TO EXPAND CHC THUNDER OVR MOST OF CWA AND
COUPLED WITH S/WVS RIDING NORTH ARND BASE OF UL TROF WL BE TUFF TO
PINPOINT WHERE BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION WL BE. THUS WL KEEP JUST GNRL
THUNDER IN AT THIS TIME.
SFC LOW WL MV UP INTO SRN ON AND QC LATE TUE AFTN AND OCCLUDE OUT AS
IT DOES SO. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON BNDRY MVG THRU WITH 00Z
GFS CONTINUING TO BE FASTER MVG DRY AIR INTO WRN ZONES AFT 18Z
TUESDAY WHEREAS GFS IS ABOUT 6 HRS QUICKER. INTERESTING THAT 00Z
EURO IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE NAM IS WITH DRIER AIR NOT MVG IN UNTIL
CLOSER TO 06Z WED. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT EURO IS SLOWEST OF
ALL MODELS TO EJECT H5 LOW OUT. WL SIDE MORE TWD NAM WHICH IS THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN WITH MVMNT OF FROPA.
BNDRY MVS THRU CWA TUE NGT TAKING PCPN WITH IT DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.
THIS BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH IT WITH MINS DIPPING INTO THE
50S BY WED MRNG. UL TROF WL TAKE ITS SWEET TIME MVG THRU CWA WITH
SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS WED AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
THE BIG STORY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPS, AND A POSSIBLE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DURING THIS PERIOD A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST BUT A POP UP
SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVER CENTRAL
TX, WE AREN`T QUITE OUT OF THE WOODS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS WE
HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AS THIS TROF MOVES EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT
MOISTURE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TIMING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOISTURE GETS IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE OLDER RUNS OF THE
GFS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO, BRINGING IN SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE EURO NOT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
WHATEVER THE CASE IT DOES APPEAR CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND ITSELF. ON THE FRONT END I PUT IN JUST A 20%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NEPA FRIDAY BUT SAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SAT/SUN.
IF THE PATTERN HOLDS CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED THIS
WEEKEND BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WDSPRD IFR/MVFR THIS MRNG WITH ELM/BGM BLO ALT MINS DUE TO FOG
AND CIGS. XPCT IFR CIGS TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR RNG BY MID MRNG...THEN
IMPRV TO VFR BY LATE MRNG. POTNL FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTN DUE TO
APRCHNG S/WV...ALTHO AVP COULD SEE ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTN. OPTED
FOR A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AT ALL SITES THIS AFTN...GNRLY IN THE
20-01Z TIME FRAME. TNGT...XPCT MVFR AND PSBLY IFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO BR/FOG/AND SCT -SHRA. WINDS LGT AND GNRLY FROM THE SW THRU THE
PD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED/THUR/FRI..,VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
639 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
250 AM UPDATE...
AFT WIDESPREAD SVR WX TDA WILL CATCH A QUICK BREATH BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND STARTS THIS AFTN. H5 LOWS ARE PINWHEELING ARND EACH OTHER ACRS
CANADA LEAVING A MEAN TROF FOR AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CWA RMNS
IN A SOUPY AIRMASS WITH JUST A 1-3 DEGREE DWPT DEPRESSION. LGT WINDS
AND CLRNG SKIES HV SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVR MOST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG DIFFUSE BNDRY FM NEW ENGLAND BACK INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE. 00Z NAM HAS
A HORRIBLE HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDS AND IS ALREADY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
CONVECTION ACRS SRN PA WHEREAS LATEST RUC HAS BETTER HANDLE. HV RMVD
POPS ACRS NEPA THRU 12Z WITH JUST ISOLD SHOWERS THRU 15Z AND THEN
INCRS TO LKLY TWD 18Z AS NEXT WV APPCHS FM THE SOUTHWEST. CAPES
EXPECTED TO RUN THE GAMUT FM ARND 100 (RAP) TO ~ 1000 (GFS AND LOCAL
WRF) ACRS SERN ZONES THIS AFTN. THIS DEPENDS ON T/TD VALUES BEING
HANDLED BY THE MODELS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GFS HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON SFC T/TD FIELDS WITH RUC BEING COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH
WITH TD VALUES AT 18Z OVR NEPA IN THE LWR 50S. HV SEEN THIS RECENTLY
IN THE RUC/RAP FIELDS WITH BLYR CONDS BEING TOO DRY, THUS DO NOT
TRUST THIS AND WL TEND MORE TWD GFS. HWVR, THINK GFS IS TOO BULLISH
ON HIGH TEMPS ACRS NEPA AND WL LEAN MORE TWD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS, WITH CAPE VALUES POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 800-900 J/KG OVR
NEPA FOR THIS AFTN.
THAT BEING SAID, HV GONE WITH LKLY THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A MONTICELLO TO SCRANTON LINE THIS AFTN. SHEAR WL NOT BE AS WELL
ORGANIZED TDA THUS THINKING THAT SVR STORMS WL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD,
THO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE HVY RAINFALL WITH
PW VALUES OF 1-2 SD AND POSSIBLY SLOW-MVG STORMS. THIS THREAT AREA
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL YDA WITH A STRIPE
OF 1-3 INCH STORM TOTAL QPF FM NRN BRADFORD THRU SRN BROOME INTO
EXTRM NRN SULLIVAN CNTY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THESE
AREAS THIS AFTN, THUS WL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FEEL THAT
THIS IS MORE WORTHY OF A SHORT-FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AFTER
CONVECTION DVLPS.
IN ADDITION TO NEPA AFTR A BRIEF BUBBLE HIGH TAKES SHAPE ACRS NRN
ZONES THIS MRNG, MODELS ARE HINTING A MESO-LOW DVLPS ACRS THE
FINGER LKS THIS AFTN. THIS WL LKLY LEAD TO AN ADDNL AREA OF LKLY
CONVECTION, THO NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE SVR AT THIS TIME AND WITH
PW VALUES ARND 1.5 INCHES LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING STRONG H2 SPEED MAX
LIFTING ACRS SRN CANADA THIS AFTN, WHICH WUD PLACE CWA IN
FAVORABLE RRQ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
AIRMASS WL CONTINUE TO BE SOGGY WITH CWA SITTING WELL INTO WMSECTOR
TONIGHT. SFC LOPRES CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR LK SUPERIOR WL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SET UP SHOP OVR LK HURON/GEORGIAN BAY AREA BY
06Z. THIS WL KEEP WVS RIDING UP IN SRLY FLOW AFFECTING THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER H2 SPEED MAX PROGGED TO IMPACT AREA MVG TWD AREA FM THE NW
BY 12Z. THIS WL SERVE TO EXPAND CHC THUNDER OVR MOST OF CWA AND
COUPLED WITH S/WVS RIDING NORTH ARND BASE OF UL TROF WL BE TUFF TO
PINPOINT WHERE BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION WL BE. THUS WL KEEP JUST GNRL
THUNDER IN AT THIS TIME.
SFC LOW WL MV UP INTO SRN ON AND QC LATE TUE AFTN AND OCCLUDE OUT AS
IT DOES SO. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON BNDRY MVG THRU WITH 00Z
GFS CONTINUING TO BE FASTER MVG DRY AIR INTO WRN ZONES AFT 18Z
TUESDAY WHEREAS GFS IS ABOUT 6 HRS QUICKER. INTERESTING THAT 00Z
EURO IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE NAM IS WITH DRIER AIR NOT MVG IN UNTIL
CLOSER TO 06Z WED. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT EURO IS SLOWEST OF
ALL MODELS TO EJECT H5 LOW OUT. WL SIDE MORE TWD NAM WHICH IS THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN WITH MVMNT OF FROPA.
BNDRY MVS THRU CWA TUE NGT TAKING PCPN WITH IT DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.
THIS BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH IT WITH MINS DIPPING INTO THE
50S BY WED MRNG. UL TROF WL TAKE ITS SWEET TIME MVG THRU CWA WITH
SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS WED AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
THE BIG STORY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPS, AND A POSSIBLE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DURING THIS PERIOD A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST BUT A POP UP
SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVER CENTRAL
TX, WE AREN`T QUITE OUT OF THE WOODS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS WE
HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AS THIS TROF MOVES EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT
MOISTURE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TIMING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOISTURE GETS IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE OLDER RUNS OF THE
GFS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO, BRINGING IN SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE EURO NOT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
WHATEVER THE CASE IT DOES APPEAR CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND ITSELF. ON THE FRONT END I PUT IN JUST A 20%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NEPA FRIDAY BUT SAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SAT/SUN.
IF THE PATTERN HOLDS CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED THIS
WEEKEND BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WDSPRD IFR/MVFR THIS MRNG WITH ELM/BGM BLO ALT MINS DUE TO FOG
AND CIGS. XPCT IFR CIGS TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR RNG BY MID MRNG...THEN
IMPRV TO VFR BY LATE MRNG. POTNL FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTN DUE TO
APRCHNG S/WV...ALTHO AVP COULD SEE ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTN. OPTED
FOR A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AT ALL SITES THIS AFTN...GNRLY IN THE
20-01Z TIME FRAME. TNGT...XPCT MVFR AND PSBLY IFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO BR/FOG/AND SCT -SHRA. WINDS LGT AND GNRLY FROM THE SW THRU THE
PD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED/THUR/FRI..,VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
417 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
250 AM UPDATE...
AFT WIDESPREAD SVR WX TDA WILL CATCH A QUICK BREATH BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND STARTS THIS AFTN. H5 LOWS ARE PINWHEELING ARND EACH OTHER ACRS
CANADA LEAVING A MEAN TROF FOR AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CWA RMNS
IN A SOUPY AIRMASS WITH JUST A 1-3 DEGREE DWPT DEPRESSION. LGT WINDS
AND CLRNG SKIES HV SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVR MOST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG DIFFUSE BNDRY FM NEW ENGLAND BACK INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE. 00Z NAM HAS
A HORRIBLE HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDS AND IS ALREADY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
CONVECTION ACRS SRN PA WHEREAS LATEST RUC HAS BETTER HANDLE. HV RMVD
POPS ACRS NEPA THRU 12Z WITH JUST ISOLD SHOWERS THRU 15Z AND THEN
INCRS TO LKLY TWD 18Z AS NEXT WV APPCHS FM THE SOUTHWEST. CAPES
EXPECTED TO RUN THE GAMUT FM ARND 100 (RAP) TO ~ 1000 (GFS AND LOCAL
WRF) ACRS SERN ZONES THIS AFTN. THIS DEPENDS ON T/TD VALUES BEING
HANDLED BY THE MODELS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GFS HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON SFC T/TD FIELDS WITH RUC BEING COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH
WITH TD VALUES AT 18Z OVR NEPA IN THE LWR 50S. HV SEEN THIS RECENTLY
IN THE RUC/RAP FIELDS WITH BLYR CONDS BEING TOO DRY, THUS DO NOT
TRUST THIS AND WL TEND MORE TWD GFS. HWVR, THINK GFS IS TOO BULLISH
ON HIGH TEMPS ACRS NEPA AND WL LEAN MORE TWD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS, WITH CAPE VALUES POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 800-900 J/KG OVR
NEPA FOR THIS AFTN.
THAT BEING SAID, HV GONE WITH LKLY THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A MONTICELLO TO SCRANTON LINE THIS AFTN. SHEAR WL NOT BE AS WELL
ORGANIZED TDA THUS THINKING THAT SVR STORMS WL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD,
THO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE HVY RAINFALL WITH
PW VALUES OF 1-2 SD AND POSSIBLY SLOW-MVG STORMS. THIS THREAT AREA
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL YDA WITH A STRIPE
OF 1-3 INCH STORM TOTAL QPF FM NRN BRADFORD THRU SRN BROOME INTO
EXTRM NRN SULLIVAN CNTY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THESE
AREAS THIS AFTN, THUS WL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FEEL THAT
THIS IS MORE WORTHY OF A SHORT-FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AFTER
CONVECTION DVLPS.
IN ADDITION TO NEPA AFTR A BRIEF BUBBLE HIGH TAKES SHAPE ACRS NRN
ZONES THIS MRNG, MODELS ARE HINTING A MESO-LOW DVLPS ACRS THE
FINGER LKS THIS AFTN. THIS WL LKLY LEAD TO AN ADDNL AREA OF LKLY
CONVECTION, THO NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE SVR AT THIS TIME AND WITH
PW VALUES ARND 1.5 INCHES LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING STRONG H2 SPEED MAX
LIFTING ACRS SRN CANADA THIS AFTN, WHICH WUD PLACE CWA IN
FAVORABLE RRQ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
AIRMASS WL CONTINUE TO BE SOGGY WITH CWA SITTING WELL INTO WMSECTOR
TONIGHT. SFC LOPRES CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR LK SUPERIOR WL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SET UP SHOP OVR LK HURON/GEORGIAN BAY AREA BY
06Z. THIS WL KEEP WVS RIDING UP IN SRLY FLOW AFFECTING THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER H2 SPEED MAX PROGGED TO IMPACT AREA MVG TWD AREA FM THE NW
BY 12Z. THIS WL SERVE TO EXPAND CHC THUNDER OVR MOST OF CWA AND
COUPLED WITH S/WVS RIDING NORTH ARND BASE OF UL TROF WL BE TUFF TO
PINPOINT WHERE BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION WL BE. THUS WL KEEP JUST GNRL
THUNDER IN AT THIS TIME.
SFC LOW WL MV UP INTO SRN ON AND QC LATE TUE AFTN AND OCCLUDE OUT AS
IT DOES SO. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON BNDRY MVG THRU WITH 00Z
GFS CONTINUING TO BE FASTER MVG DRY AIR INTO WRN ZONES AFT 18Z
TUESDAY WHEREAS GFS IS ABOUT 6 HRS QUICKER. INTERESTING THAT 00Z
EURO IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE NAM IS WITH DRIER AIR NOT MVG IN UNTIL
CLOSER TO 06Z WED. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT EURO IS SLOWEST OF
ALL MODELS TO EJECT H5 LOW OUT. WL SIDE MORE TWD NAM WHICH IS THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN WITH MVMNT OF FROPA.
BNDRY MVS THRU CWA TUE NGT TAKING PCPN WITH IT DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.
THIS BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH IT WITH MINS DIPPING INTO THE
50S BY WED MRNG. UL TROF WL TAKE ITS SWEET TIME MVG THRU CWA WITH
SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS WED AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
THE BIG STORY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPS, AND A POSSIBLE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DURING THIS PERIOD A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST BUT A POP UP
SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVER CENTRAL
TX, WE AREN`T QUITE OUT OF THE WOODS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS WE
HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AS THIS TROF MOVES EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT
MOISTURE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TIMING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOISTURE GETS IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE OLDER RUNS OF THE
GFS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO, BRINGING IN SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE EURO NOT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
WHATEVER THE CASE IT DOES APPEAR CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND ITSELF. ON THE FRONT END I PUT IN JUST A 20%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NEPA FRIDAY BUT SAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SAT/SUN.
IF THE PATTERN HOLDS CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED THIS
WEEKEND BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WDSPRD LIFR THIS MRNG WITH MOST SITES BLO ALT MINS DUE TO FOG AND
CIGS. ONLY XCPTN SHUD BE SYR...BUT MVFR IS PSBL THERE DUE TO BR
TWDS DAYBREAK. XPCT IFR CIGS TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR RNG THIS
MRNG...THEN IMPRV TO VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG. POTNL FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTN DUE TO APRCHNG S/WV`S...ALTHO AVP COULD SEE ACTIVITY BY
EARLY AFTN. FOR NOW PLAYED PROB30`S THIS AFTN FOR -SHRA ACRS CNTRL
NY...WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT AVP. THIS EVNG...XPCT MVFR TO DVLP
IN BR AND PSBLY CIGS. WINDS LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED/THUR/FRI..,VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
308 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
250 AM UPDATE...
AFT WIDESPREAD SVR WX TDA WILL CATCH A QUICK BREATH BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND STARTS THIS AFTN. H5 LOWS ARE PINWHEELING ARND EACH OTHER ACRS
CANADA LEAVING A MEAN TROF FOR AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CWA RMNS
IN A SOUPY AIRMASS WITH JUST A 1-3 DEGREE DWPT DEPRESSION. LGT WINDS
AND CLRNG SKIES HV SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVR MOST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG DIFFUSE BNDRY FM NEW ENGLAND BACK INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE. 00Z NAM HAS
A HORRIBLE HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDS AND IS ALREADY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
CONVECTION ACRS SRN PA WHEREAS LATEST RUC HAS BETTER HANDLE. HV RMVD
POPS ACRS NEPA THRU 12Z WITH JUST ISOLD SHOWERS THRU 15Z AND THEN
INCRS TO LKLY TWD 18Z AS NEXT WV APPCHS FM THE SOUTHWEST. CAPES
EXPECTED TO RUN THE GAMUT FM ARND 100 (RAP) TO ~ 1000 (GFS AND LOCAL
WRF) ACRS SERN ZONES THIS AFTN. THIS DEPENDS ON T/TD VALUES BEING
HANDLED BY THE MODELS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GFS HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON SFC T/TD FIELDS WITH RUC BEING COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH
WITH TD VALUES AT 18Z OVR NEPA IN THE LWR 50S. HV SEEN THIS RECENTLY
IN THE RUC/RAP FIELDS WITH BLYR CONDS BEING TOO DRY, THUS DO NOT
TRUST THIS AND WL TEND MORE TWD GFS. HWVR, THINK GFS IS TOO BULLISH
ON HIGH TEMPS ACRS NEPA AND WL LEAN MORE TWD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS, WITH CAPE VALUES POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 800-900 J/KG OVR
NEPA FOR THIS AFTN.
THAT BEING SAID, HV GONE WITH LKLY THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A MONTICELLO TO SCRANTON LINE THIS AFTN. SHEAR WL NOT BE AS WELL
ORGANIZED TDA THUS THINKING THAT SVR STORMS WL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD,
THO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE HVY RAINFALL WITH
PW VALUES OF 1-2 SD AND POSSIBLY SLOW-MVG STORMS. THIS THREAT AREA
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL YDA WITH A STRIPE
OF 1-3 INCH STORM TOTAL QPF FM NRN BRADFORD THRU SRN BROOME INTO
EXTRM NRN SULLIVAN CNTY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THESE
AREAS THIS AFTN, THUS WL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FEEL THAT
THIS IS MORE WORTHY OF A SHORT-FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AFTER
CONVECTION DVLPS.
IN ADDITION TO NEPA AFTR A BRIEF BUBBLE HIGH TAKES SHAPE ACRS NRN
ZONES THIS MRNG, MODELS ARE HINTING A MESO-LOW DVLPS ACRS THE
FINGER LKS THIS AFTN. THIS WL LKLY LEAD TO AN ADDNL AREA OF LKLY
CONVECTION, THO NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE SVR AT THIS TIME AND WITH
PW VALUES ARND 1.5 INCHES LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING STRONG H2 SPEED MAX
LIFTING ACRS SRN CANADA THIS AFTN, WHICH WUD PLACE CWA IN
FAVORABLE RRQ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...BOUNDARY WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AREA WILL
REMAIN OVER EASTERN PA AND BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL NY BUT LIKELY FOR NE PA, SRN CATSKILLS AND LOCAL
BGM AREA. BASED ON SVR WX INDICES A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH SVR
LIMITS ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY RAIN AS CONVECTION
PERSIST OVER NE PA AND AIRMASS REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH PWATS AROUND
2 INCHES.
MONDAY NIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INITIAL BOUNDARY THROUGH AND
MAIN SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TUESDAY...DEEP H5 TROF MOVES INTO NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS SFC
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FA FROM I81 WEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE FA WHERE MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL HUNDRED
J/KG. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC POPS THROUGH PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF SETTLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE ERN CWA TUE
EVENING PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS ON WED
WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
THE BIG STORY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPS, AND A POSSIBLE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DURING THIS PERIOD A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST BUT A POP UP
SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVER CENTRAL
TX, WE AREN`T QUITE OUT OF THE WOODS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS WE
HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AS THIS TROF MOVES EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT
MOISTURE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TIMING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOISTURE GETS IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE OLDER RUNS OF THE
GFS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO, BRINGING IN SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE EURO NOT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
WHATEVER THE CASE IT DOES APPEAR CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND ITSELF. ON THE FRONT END I PUT IN JUST A 20%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NEPA FRIDAY BUT SAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SAT/SUN.
IF THE PATTERN HOLDS CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED THIS
WEEKEND BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WDSPRD LIFR THIS MRNG WITH MOST SITES BLO ALT MINS DUE TO FOG AND
CIGS. ONLY XCPTN SHUD BE SYR...BUT MVFR IS PSBL THERE DUE TO BR
TWDS DAYBREAK. XPCT IFR CIGS TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR RNG THIS
MRNG...THEN IMPRV TO VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG. POTNL FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTN DUE TO APRCHNG S/WV`S...ALTHO AVP COULD SEE ACTIVITY BY
EARLY AFTN. FOR NOW PLAYED PROB30`S THIS AFTN FOR -SHRA ACRS CNTRL
NY...WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT AVP. THIS EVNG...XPCT MVFR TO DVLP
IN BR AND PSBLY CIGS. WINDS LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED/THUR/FRI..,VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
302 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
250 AM UPDATE...
AFT WIDESPREAD SVR WX TDA WILL CATCH A QUICK BREATH BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND STARTS THIS AFTN. H5 LOWS ARE PINWHEELING ARND EACH OTHER ACRS
CANADA LEAVING A MEAN TROF FOR AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CWA RMNS
IN A SOUPY AIRMASS WITH JUST A 1-3 DEGREE DWPT DEPRESSION. LGT WINDS
AND CLRNG SKIES HV SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVR MOST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG DIFFUSE BNDRY FM NEW ENGLAND BACK INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE. 00Z NAM HAS
A HORRIBLE HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDS AND IS ALREADY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
CONVECTION ACRS SRN PA WHEREAS LATEST RUC HAS BETTER HANDLE. HV RMVD
POPS ACRS NEPA THRU 12Z WITH JUST ISOLD SHOWERS THRU 15Z AND THEN
INCRS TO LKLY TWD 18Z AS NEXT WV APPCHS FM THE SOUTHWEST. CAPES
EXPECTED TO RUN THE GAMUT FM ARND 100 (RAP) TO ~ 1000 (GFS AND LOCAL
WRF) ACRS SERN ZONES THIS AFTN. THIS DEPENDS ON T/TD VALUES BEING
HANDLED BY THE MODELS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GFS HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON SFC T/TD FIELDS WITH RUC BEING COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH
WITH TD VALUES AT 18Z OVR NEPA IN THE LWR 50S. HV SEEN THIS RECENTLY
IN THE RUC/RAP FIELDS WITH BLYR CONDS BEING TOO DRY, THUS DO NOT
TRUST THIS AND WL TEND MORE TWD GFS. HWVR, THINK GFS IS TOO BULLISH
ON HIGH TEMPS ACRS NEPA AND WL LEAN MORE TWD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS, WITH CAPE VALUES POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 800-900 J/KG OVR
NEPA FOR THIS AFTN.
THAT BEING SAID, HV GONE WITH LKLY THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A MONTICELLO TO SCRANTON LINE THIS AFTN. SHEAR WL NOT BE AS WELL
ORGANIZED TDA THUS THINKING THAT SVR STORMS WL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD,
THO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE HVY RAINFALL WITH
PW VALUES OF 1-2 SD AND POSSIBLY SLOW-MVG STORMS. THIS THREAT AREA
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL YDA WITH A STRIPE
OF 1-3 INCH STORM TOTAL QPF FM NRN BRADFORD THRU SRN BROOME INTO
EXTRM NRN SULLIVAN CNTY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THESE
AREAS THIS AFTN, THUS WL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FEEL THAT
THIS IS MORE WORTHY OF A SHORT-FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AFTER
CONVECTION DVLPS.
IN ADDITION TO NEPA AFTR A BRIEF BUBBLE HIGH TAKES SHAPE ACRS NRN
ZONES THIS MRNG, MODELS ARE HINTING A MESO-LOW DVLPS ACRS THE
FINGER LKS THIS AFTN. THIS WL LKLY LEAD TO AN ADDNL AREA OF LKLY
CONVECTION, THO NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE SVR AT THIS TIME AND WITH
PW VALUES ARND 1.5 INCHES LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...BOUNDARY WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AREA WILL
REMAIN OVER EASTERN PA AND BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL NY BUT LIKELY FOR NE PA, SRN CATSKILLS AND LOCAL
BGM AREA. BASED ON SVR WX INDICES A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH SVR
LIMITS ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY RAIN AS CONVECTION
PERSIST OVER NE PA AND AIRMASS REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH PWATS AROUND
2 INCHES.
MONDAY NIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INITIAL BOUNDARY THROUGH AND
MAIN SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TUESDAY...DEEP H5 TROF MOVES INTO NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS SFC
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FA FROM I81 WEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE FA WHERE MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL HUNDRED
J/KG. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC POPS THROUGH PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF SETTLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE ERN CWA TUE
EVENING PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS ON WED
WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
THE BIG STORY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPS, AND A POSSIBLE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DURING THIS PERIOD A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST BUT A POP UP
SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVER CENTRAL
TX, WE AREN`T QUITE OUT OF THE WOODS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS WE
HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AS THIS TROF MOVES EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT
MOISTURE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TIMING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOISTURE GETS IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE OLDER RUNS OF THE
GFS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO, BRINGING IN SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE EURO NOT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
WHATEVER THE CASE IT DOES APPEAR CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND ITSELF. ON THE FRONT END I PUT IN JUST A 20%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NEPA FRIDAY BUT SAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SAT/SUN.
IF THE PATTERN HOLDS CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED THIS
WEEKEND BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WDSPRD LIFR THIS MRNG WITH MOST SITES BLO ALT MINS DUE TO FOG AND
CIGS. ONLY XCPTN SHUD BE SYR...BUT MVFR IS PSBL THERE DUE TO BR
TWDS DAYBREAK. XPCT IFR CIGS TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR RNG THIS
MRNG...THEN IMPRV TO VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG. POTNL FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTN DUE TO APRCHNG S/WV`S...ALTHO AVP COULD SEE ACTIVITY BY
EARLY AFTN. FOR NOW PLAYED PROB30`S THIS AFTN FOR -SHRA ACRS CNTRL
NY...WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT AVP. THIS EVNG...XPCT MVFR TO DVLP
IN BR AND PSBLY CIGS. WINDS LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED/THUR/FRI..,VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
253 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
250 AM UPDATE...
AFT WIDESPREAD SVR WX TDA WILL CATCH A QUICK BREATH BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND STARTS THIS AFTN. H5 LOWS ARE PINWHEELING ARND EACH OTHER ACRS
CANADA LEAVING A MEAN TROF FOR AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CWA RMNS
IN A SOUPY AIRMASS WITH JUST A 1-3 DEGREE DWPT DEPRESSION. LGT WINDS
AND CLRNG SKIES HV SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVR MOST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG DIFFUSE BNDRY FM NEW ENGLAND BACK INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE. 00Z NAM HAS
A HORRIBLE HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDS AND IS ALREADY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
CONVECTION ACRS SRN PA WHEREAS LATEST RUC HAS BETTER HANDLE. HV RMVD
POPS ACRS NEPA THRU 12Z WITH JUST ISOLD SHOWERS THRU 15Z AND THEN
INCRS TO LKLY TWD 18Z AS NEXT WV APPCHS FM THE SOUTHWEST. CAPES
EXPECTED TO RUN THE GAMUT FM ARND 100 (RAP) TO ~ 1000 (GFS AND LOCAL
WRF) ACRS SERN ZONES THIS AFTN. THIS DEPENDS ON T/TD VALUES BEING
HANDLED BY THE MODELS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GFS HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON SFC T/TD FIELDS WITH RUC BEING COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH
WITH TD VALUES AT 18Z OVR NEPA IN THE LWR 50S. HV SEEN THIS RECENTLY
IN THE RUC/RAP FIELDS WITH BLYR CONDS BEING TOO DRY, THUS DO NOT
TRUST THIS AND WL TEND MORE TWD GFS. HWVR, THINK GFS IS TOO BULLISH
ON HIGH TEMPS ACRS NEPA AND WL LEAN MORE TWD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS, WITH CAPE VALUES POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 800-900 J/KG OVR
NEPA FOR THIS AFTN.
THAT BEING SAID, HV GONE WITH LKLY THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A MONTICELLO TO SCRANTON LINE THIS AFTN. SHEAR WL NOT BE AS WELL
ORGANIZED TDA THUS THINKING THAT SVR STORMS WL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD,
THO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE HVY RAINFALL WITH
PW VALUES OF 1-2 SD AND POSSIBLY SLOW-MVG STORMS. THIS THREAT AREA
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL YDA WITH A STRIPE
OF 1-3 INCH STORM TOTAL QPF FM NRN BRADFORD THRU SRN BROOME INTO
EXTRM NRN SULLIVAN CNTY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THESE
AREAS THIS AFTN, THUS WL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FEEL THAT
THIS IS MORE WORTHY OF A SHORT-FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AFTER
CONVECTION DVLPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...BOUNDARY WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AREA WILL
REMAIN OVER EASTERN PA AND BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL NY BUT LIKELY FOR NE PA, SRN CATSKILLS AND LOCAL
BGM AREA. BASED ON SVR WX INDICES A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH SVR
LIMITS ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY RAIN AS CONVECTION
PERSIST OVER NE PA AND AIRMASS REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH PWATS AROUND
2 INCHES.
MONDAY NIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INITIAL BOUNDARY THROUGH AND
MAIN SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TUESDAY...DEEP H5 TROF MOVES INTO NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS SFC
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FA FROM I81 WEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE FA WHERE MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL HUNDRED
J/KG. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC POPS THROUGH PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF SETTLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE ERN CWA TUE
EVENING PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS ON WED
WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
THE BIG STORY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPS, AND A POSSIBLE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DURING THIS PERIOD A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST BUT A POP UP
SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVER CENTRAL
TX, WE AREN`T QUITE OUT OF THE WOODS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS WE
HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AS THIS TROF MOVES EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT
MOISTURE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TIMING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOISTURE GETS IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE OLDER RUNS OF THE
GFS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO, BRINGING IN SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE EURO NOT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
WHATEVER THE CASE IT DOES APPEAR CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND ITSELF. ON THE FRONT END I PUT IN JUST A 20%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NEPA FRIDAY BUT SAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SAT/SUN.
IF THE PATTERN HOLDS CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED THIS
WEEKEND BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WDSPRD LIFR THIS MRNG WITH MOST SITES BLO ALT MINS DUE TO FOG AND
CIGS. ONLY XCPTN SHUD BE SYR...BUT MVFR IS PSBL THERE DUE TO BR
TWDS DAYBREAK. XPCT IFR CIGS TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR RNG THIS
MRNG...THEN IMPRV TO VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG. POTNL FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTN DUE TO APRCHNG S/WV`S...ALTHO AVP COULD SEE ACTIVITY BY
EARLY AFTN. FOR NOW PLAYED PROB30`S THIS AFTN FOR -SHRA ACRS CNTRL
NY...WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT AVP. THIS EVNG...XPCT MVFR TO DVLP
IN BR AND PSBLY CIGS. WINDS LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED/THUR/FRI..,VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1000 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
EVENING...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MID AND LATE WEEK. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND BRINGING BOTH HIGHER
HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN DWINDLING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SINCE NIGHTFALL...THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION UPSTREAM. ALSO...THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT. TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE WHERE AND WHEN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST ELEVATED POPS. IF THE HRRR MODEL IS CORRECT...CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS AND MOVE ONTO PORTIONS OF THE COAST
LATE. BASED ON THIS...DID FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
ALONG THE MORE COASTAL ENVIRONS. WE DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THE FRONT MAY LIMP INTO OUR INLAND MOST AREAS NEAR DAYBREAK...
SHIFTING WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. CURRENT TEMPS...
KNOCKED DOWN BY THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE CONVECTION EARLIER...
REMAIN VERY NEAR THE LOWS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY
HOLD STEADY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRYING OCCURS LATE...AND THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE A NICE DAY LOCALLY.
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...DRIVEN BY AN ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. RT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SO LIFT SHOULD
BE AT A MAXIMUM OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FIRE RAPIDLY OR BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
SO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
EARLY...TRANSITIONING TO CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER
80S.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL
FALL TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD REACH THE
MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS WITHIN WHAT
IS OTHERWISE A CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST.
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A NICE DAY LOCALLY...BUT AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED OR SCATTERED TSTMS
THAT DEVELOP IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION. DURING THE WEEKEND...A
TROUGH OR LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP BENEATH A RE-ENFORCING
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES...AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS DRIVES THE BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE
AREA...AND THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING COLUMN SATURATION AND THE
FORCING ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN INITIATE GOOD CONVECTION CHANCES
WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. A
RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFFSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING
AFTER WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY. A LINE OF TSTMS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS NEARING KCKI...BUT EXPECT THIS CLUSTER WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR BETWEEN KFLO AND KMYR/KCRE.
MAY NEED TO APPEND KFLO/KMYR/KCRE WITH VCTS IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...
BUT WILL STICK WITH VCSH FOR NOW. WILL ALSO MONITOR THE LINE OF
TSTMS WELL NORTHWEST OF KLBT...THOUGH IT DOES NOT WARRANT VCTS ATTM.
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS COULD
ACCOMPANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. KFLO/KLBT
COULD SEE FROPA BY 12Z...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST. MODELS
INDICATE THE FRONT MAY ACTUALLY STALL OVER OUR AREA DURING THE
DAY...BISECTING THE INLAND AND COASTAL SITES. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MEANWHILE...THE INLAND TERMINALS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SEE DRYING
AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL
WATERS FOR SW WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 4 TO 6 FT. SEAS
HAVE BEEN CHURNED UP BY THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE MORE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS DRIVES SW WINDS TO AROUND 15 KTS
EARLY...BEFORE THEY VEER TO THE W...THEN NW...AND EVENTUALLY NE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...ALL AT AROUND 10 KTS. THIS FRONT WILL WAVER
NEAR THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH
LATE THURSDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE. SEAS 3-5 FT EARLY
WEDNESDAY WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING 2-3
FT...WHICH WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT OF A NON-DESCRIPT PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL EXIST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...CREATING MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE PRIMARILY S/SE AS A LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL INLAND FROM THE AREA AND TRACKS NE...BUT
VARIABLE DIRECTION MAY OCCUR AT TIMES. WAVE OF HEIGHTS OF 2-3 FT
WILL BE COMMON DURING THE PERIOD...WITH A SE WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP.
&&
.COASTAL FLOODING...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER. HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 1 AM. WE
ARE JUST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A FULL MOON. THE WANING HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH THE SWOLLEN RIVER
FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER...TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR
COASTAL FLOODING...RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1257 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFFSHORE TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY AND SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN DISSIPATE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES DOMINANT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM MONDAY...THE 3 KM HRRR AND NSSL WRF CONTINUES TO
INDICATE SOME CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE KEPT POPS AS IS WITH 30 PCT INLAND
AND 20 PCT NEAR THE COAST. NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MON...APPROACHING UPR TRF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL
LEAD TO DECENT SW FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH SOME INCREASE IN LIFT
LATE. WILL CONT WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHC POPS EARLY WITH CHC LATE AS
THE LIFT BEGINS TO REACH THE REGION. WILL BE A MILD/MUGGY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY TUES THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH TUES NIGHT HELPING TO PUSH LOWER HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE
REGION. A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL DRAG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION TUES INTO
WED. THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL BE SHUNTED WELL
OFFSHORE TUES THOUGH IT WILL HELP FOCUS A RICH SOUTHWESTERLY
MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TUES THROUGH WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TUES AND
MOVE INTO EASTERN NC WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS
RAMPING BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES LATE TUES INTO EARLY WED. MAINTAINED
TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES...TO LIKELY BY
TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW
DEGREES TUES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS INHIBITING MAXIMUM
INSOLATION...THOUGH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN ROUGHLY 1425
METERS. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE TUES AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING WHEN SLIGHTLY GREATER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. EXPECT HEAVIEST/WIDESPREAD PRECIP
TO OCCUR TUES NIGHT WHEN LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OF AROUND 17
G/KG AND PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH OFFSHORE WED BUT HAVE CONTINUED
SLOWLY DECREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST...AS WE WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY BY 00Z THURS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1405-1410 METERS WED WHICH YIELDS
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.
00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THURS INTO THURS
NIGHT KEEPING MOST OF EASTERN NC MOSTLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...MAINLY
EAST OF HWY 17. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT LEADING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BECOMES MORE DOMINANT SUN WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES IN MEAN SW FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS INLAND AT THE TAF
SITES...WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME MVFR FOG...WILL
KEEP OUT FOR NOW AS A DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD MIX THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH COULD PRODUCE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TUES THROUGH WED...WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS/VSBYS TUES NIGHT.
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...GENERALLY S/SSW WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS GRADIENT INCREASES
BETWEEN SHARPENING TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH OFFSHORE. SEAS ARE IN
THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE AND SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 3 TO 5
FEET. NO BIG CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUN...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. SW WINDS WILL RANGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN ALL
WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...10 KNOTS OR LESS..AS THE FRONT REMAINS OFFSHORE
THURS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND DIRECTION LATE THURS
INTO FRI...AS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS AS
EARLY AS THURS. WILL MAINTAIN A MORE EASTERLY TREND FOR WINDS
FRI. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT THURS INTO FRI. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
00Z WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG/TL
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/RF/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
958 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFFSHORE TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY AND SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN DISSIPATE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES DOMINANT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM MONDAY...A FEW SHOWERS LINGER JUST OFFSHORE WITH
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND. PATCH OF AC OVER THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT HAS GRADUALLY DISSIPATED AS WELL. 3KM HRRR SHOWS A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GFS/NAM12 SHOWING A BETTER COVERAGE WELL INLAND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHC POPS INLAND AND SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE COAST. NO CHANGE
TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MON...APPROACHING UPR TRF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL
LEAD TO DECENT SW FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH SOME INCREASE IN LIFT
LATE. WILL CONT WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHC POPS EARLY WITH CHC LATE AS
THE LIFT BEGINS TO REACH THE REGION. WILL BE A MILD/MUGGY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY TUES THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH TUES NIGHT HELPING TO PUSH LOWER HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE
REGION. A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL DRAG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION TUES INTO
WED. THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL BE SHUNTED WELL
OFFSHORE TUES THOUGH IT WILL HELP FOCUS A RICH SOUTHWESTERLY
MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TUES THROUGH WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TUES AND
MOVE INTO EASTERN NC WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS
RAMPING BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES LATE TUES INTO EARLY WED. MAINTAINED
TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES...TO LIKELY BY
TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW
DEGREES TUES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS INHIBITING MAXIMUM
INSOLATION...THOUGH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN ROUGHLY 1425
METERS. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE TUES AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING WHEN SLIGHTLY GREATER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. EXPECT HEAVIEST/WIDESPREAD PRECIP
TO OCCUR TUES NIGHT WHEN LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OF AROUND 17
G/KG AND PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH OFFSHORE WED BUT HAVE CONTINUED
SLOWLY DECREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST...AS WE WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY BY 00Z THURS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1405-1410 METERS WED WHICH YIELDS
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.
00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THURS INTO THURS
NIGHT KEEPING MOST OF EASTERN NC MOSTLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...MAINLY
EAST OF HWY 17. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT LEADING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BECOMES MORE DOMINANT SUN WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES IN MEAN SW FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THRU THE PD. WDLY SCT SHRA SHLD
STAY E OF TAF SITES THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP INLAND AS INSTAB INCREASES...HOWEVER
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A MENTION AT THIS
TIME. SCT SHRA AND TSRA MAY INCREASE A BIT LATE TONIGHT BUT TOO FAR
OUT TO INCLUDE SO CONT VFR WITH DECENT SW FLOW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH COULD PRODUCE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TUES THROUGH WED...WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS/VSBYS TUES NIGHT.
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM MONDAY...WILL SEE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15
KNOTS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS LATER IN THE
DAY. SEAS ARE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL CONT AT 15 TO
20 KTS TONIGHT AS GRDNT REMAINS TIGHT WITH COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE W. SEAS OF MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT EARLY WILL BUILD
TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE TODAY...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. SEAS
WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5 FT TONIGHT...MAY FLIRT WITH 6 FT FAR OUTER
CNTRL WTRS BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP AT 5 FT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUN...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. SW WINDS WILL RANGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN ALL
WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...10 KNOTS OR LESS..AS THE FRONT REMAINS OFFSHORE
THURS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND DIRECTION LATE THURS
INTO FRI...AS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS AS
EARLY AS THURS. WILL MAINTAIN A MORE EASTERLY TREND FOR WINDS
FRI. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT THURS INTO FRI. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
00Z WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG/TL
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...CTC/RF/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1259 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON TRACK AND SUPPORTED BY THE 12
UTC SUITE. JAMESTOWN HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF BREAKING THE COOLEST
HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORD FOR THE DAY OF 68 DEGREES SET IN 1937.
THE FORECAST HIGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS 67.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 824 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE 06 UTC GFS/NAM AND 11-12 UTC RAP ITERATIONS SUPPORT THE ONGOING
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED
OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO THE 13 UTC OBSERVED TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
MAIN CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WAS TO UP CLOUD COVER MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BASED UPON CURRENT SATELLITE. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD THEN BE ON THE DECREASE LATER TODAY AS LOW WORKS SOUTH AND
EAST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
MAINLY STAY OVER THOSE AREAS ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THROUGH
12-14Z THIS MORNING...CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA.
VERY UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LOW...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE CYCLONE +1-2 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS IS VERY
RARE FOR MID JULY. RESULTANT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
60S EAST TO AROUND 70 WEST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DEEP LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS WHILE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOPS. NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS AS
FLAT RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE SERIES OF UPPER
LOWS PUSH INTO THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES
SLIDING THROUGH OUR AREA STILL REMAINS TRICKY THOUGH MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT THE GREATEST POP CHANCES WILL COME IN THE FRIDAY
NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
VFR CUMULUS FIELDS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
825 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE 06 UTC GFS/NAM AND 11-12 UTC RAP ITERATIONS SUPPORT THE ONGOING
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED
OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO THE 13 UTC OBSERVED TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
MAIN CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WAS TO UP CLOUD COVER MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BASED UPON CURRENT SATELLITE. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD THEN BE ON THE DECREASE LATER TODAY AS LOW WORKS SOUTH AND
EAST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
MAINLY STAY OVER THOSE AREAS ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THROUGH
12-14Z THIS MORNING...CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA.
VERY UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LOW...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE CYCLONE +1-2 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS IS VERY
RARE FOR MID JULY. RESULTANT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
60S EAST TO AROUND 70 WEST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DEEP LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS WHILE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOPS. NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS AS
FLAT RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE SERIES OF UPPER
LOWS PUSH INTO THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES
SLIDING THROUGH OUR AREA STILL REMAINS TRICKY THOUGH MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT THE GREATEST POP CHANCES WILL COME IN THE FRIDAY
NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 824 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KBIS AND KJMS THROUGH 15Z WHEN
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
103 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. MAIN CHANGED FOR THIS EARLY MORNING
FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO MODIFY SKY COVER GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE AND NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. DID EXTEND CLOUD
COVER BACK WEST JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. DID KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AS THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES BRUSHING THIS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY AT THIS
TIME REMAINS NORTH OF BRANDON MANITOBA INTO FAR NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. MOISTURE AROUND AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
WESTERN ONTARIO IS PUSHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CEILINGS FROM MINOT AND JAMESTOWN NORTH TO
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL HAVE
NOT MATERIALIZED AND WILL DROP OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. DID KEEP A
SMALL CHANCE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS BETTER MOISTURE
WRAPS INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. BASED ON 18 UTC NAM/GFS 925 AND 850 MB
MOISTURE PROFILES...BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
ABNORMALLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FOR
MONDAY.
AS OF 20 UTC...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS
FAR WESTERN ONTARIO...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT
WILL BE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PRIMARILY EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PERHAPS BRUSHING THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH NAEFS/GEFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TO AVOID THE BUILT IN
CLIMATOLOGY OF THE STATISTICAL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. JAMESTOWN HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SETTING A RECORD LOW HIGH
TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY. SHOWN BELOW IS A FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE TABLE FOR MONDAY JULY 14.
LOCATION........FORECAST.......RECORD
BISMARCK.........67............57 1884
MINOT............66............62 1958
JAMESTOWN........66............68 1937
DICKINSON........68............60 1958
WILLISTON........69............63 1912
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
THERE IS GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THAT THE DEEP CYCLONE OVER
ONTARIO WILL LIFT OUT WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW RIDGING TO REPLACE CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. AFTER THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON
MONDAY...A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL/GFS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES ALSO
ADVERTISE A SHIFT FROM THE SEMI-PERMANENT NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
ONTARIO UPPER LOWS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CONUS AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD DIRECT A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS LARGE UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF EACH SHORTWAVE...BUT CONSENSUS ON THE STRENGTH
AND POSITION OF THE BROAD LOW DIRECTING THOSE SHORTWAVES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
AS A RESULT OF THAT CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJMS AND POSSIBLY KMOT 10-15Z
WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP CEILINGS LOW VFR FOR
NOW AND WILL ADJUST IF NEEDED WITH LATER UPDATES. WINDS INCREASE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS SUNDAY...MORE LIKE 15-25
KNOTS EAST...KJMS...10-15 KNOTS CENTRAL AND WEST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1004 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COOLER...DRIER DAYS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY WHEN
LOW PRESSURE WANDERS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST
THROUGH WV...FIRING UP A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT THAT HAVE
STRUGGLED TO EVEN PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE HRRR HAS
HAD A RESONABLE HANDLE ON THIS PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE DAY SO USED
IT TO GAUGE THE TIMING OF THE LINE.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
SKIES BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
FOR MOST. KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR TODAY
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN KEEPING AWAY MOST OF THE SUN UNTIL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOMORROW...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE AS THERE WAS VARIATION FROM LOW 80S TO LOW
70S. CALMER WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES SHOULD KEEP US A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AND THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
KEEP US COOLER THAN THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE WEAK FLOW...MOIST GROUND...AND CLEARING SKIES...CAN CERTAINLY
EXPECT SOME FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS.
EXPECTING IT TO STAY MOSTLY DRY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS TOMORROW EVENING FOR THOSE IN SE OH AS A VORT MAX
MAKES ITS WAY AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL...NO WHOLESALE CHANGES WERE MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. UPPER
CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTH WITH AXIS EXTENDING S/SW-WARD STILL
LOCATED OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AT 00Z THU WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST WED
EVE AND WED NIGHT...WITH AFOREMENTIONED S/W AXIS PROGGED TO BE
LOCATED JUST NE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THU. AM SOMEWHAT
SKEPTICAL OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWEST WED EVE WITH MEAGER LLVL
MOISTURE...PWATS UNDER AN INCH...AND NO APPARENT SFC OR BL FEATURE
TO ACT AS A TRIGGERING MECH. NONETHELESS...WILL KEEP INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS AS
OPERATIONALLY I CAN/T SAY IT WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTIVE SHOWER TO DEVELOP BEFORE LOSING THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
BUT AS PREV SHIFT MENTIONED...THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY WED EVE OR PERHAPS SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE AT WORST. WILL
BUMP UP SKY COVER JUST A TAD WITH SOME INDICATION OF PERHAPS SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT COVERAGE STILL PROBABLY NOT QUITE
ENOUGH AND LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT OVERNIGHT MINS AS THE S/W AXIS
CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH LESS CLOUD COVER TOWARDS THE DAWN HOURS. THU
MORNING SHOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THIS COOL SNAP...WITH MINS
GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 40S IN THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. EVEN HAVE SOME LOW 40S CODED UP FOR THE USUAL
COOL SPOTS OF RANDOLPH/POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.
THURSDAY WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY. ENOUGH OF A PINCH OF MOISTURE REMAINS
AROUND 850MB TO RESULT IN SOME FLAT-CU UNDERNEATH STABLE CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AT 800MB...STILL ALL IN ALL SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
FOR ALL. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARGING MAX TEMPS...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE AT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER
FLOW BACKS TO SW AS A POTENT S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER/MID
MISS VALLEY. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING THE USUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND PARTICULARLY INTO FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE WHOLE WILL BE AROUND 5-7 DEGREES WARMER
VERSUS WED NIGHT WITH READING MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF THE S/W TROUGH TO OUR SW
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY. 925MB AND
850MB TEMPS WOULD INDICATE WARMER MAX TEMP POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY BUT
THINKING THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM FULL HEATING
POTENTIAL...STILL EXPECTING TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AS WELL BY AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
PARTICULARLY HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES
AND ALONG THE EAST/SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS BY THE 21Z FRI-00Z SAT
TIME FRAME. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO RAMP UP WITH THE CAP
AROUND 700MB SO HAVE LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AND THEN REMAIN NEARBY THOUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH JUST
SOME SCATTERED CU REMAINING. THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS THIS EVENING...BUT LINGER LONGER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
DIFFICULT FOG FORECAST TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME FLOW AND DRYING AIR IN
PLACE WHICH WOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...BUT COOL TEMPS ABOVE
WARM RIVER WATER COULD STILL FORM SOME VALLEY FOG IN THE MOST
SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WITH NW FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...ALSO EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS TO FORM ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH A FEW CU DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT
MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 07/16/14
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H M M M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H L H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/50/LS
NEAR TERM...MZ/LS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
714 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COOLER...DRIER DAYS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY WHEN
LOW PRESSURE WANDERS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE...TWEAKED GRIDS BASED
ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST
THROUGH WV...FIRING UP A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT THAT HAVE
STRUGGLED TO EVEN PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE HRRR HAS
HAD A RESONABLE HANDLE ON THIS PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE DAY SO USED
IT TO GAUGE THE TIMING OF THE LINE.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
SKIES BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
FOR MOST. KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR TODAY
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN KEEPING AWAY MOST OF THE SUN UNTIL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOMORROW...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE AS THERE WAS VARIATION FROM LOW 80S TO LOW
70S. CALMER WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES SHOULD KEEP US A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AND THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
KEEP US COOLER THAN THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE WEAK FLOW...MOIST GROUND...AND CLEARING SKIES...CAN CERTAINLY
EXPECT SOME FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS.
EXPECTING IT TO STAY MOSTLY DRY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS TOMORROW EVENING FOR THOSE IN SE OH AS A VORT MAX
MAKES ITS WAY AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL...NO WHOLESALE CHANGES WERE MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. UPPER
CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTH WITH AXIS EXTENDING S/SW-WARD STILL
LOCATED OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AT 00Z THU WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST WED
EVE AND WED NIGHT...WITH AFOREMENTIONED S/W AXIS PROGGED TO BE
LOCATED JUST NE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THU. AM SOMEWHAT
SKEPTICAL OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWEST WED EVE WITH MEAGER LLVL
MOISTURE...PWATS UNDER AN INCH...AND NO APPARENT SFC OR BL FEATURE
TO ACT AS A TRIGGERING MECH. NONETHELESS...WILL KEEP INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS AS
OPERATIONALLY I CAN/T SAY IT WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTIVE SHOWER TO DEVELOP BEFORE LOSING THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
BUT AS PREV SHIFT MENTIONED...THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY WED EVE OR PERHAPS SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE AT WORST. WILL
BUMP UP SKY COVER JUST A TAD WITH SOME INDICATION OF PERHAPS SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT COVERAGE STILL PROBABLY NOT QUITE
ENOUGH AND LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT OVERNIGHT MINS AS THE S/W AXIS
CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH LESS CLOUD COVER TOWARDS THE DAWN HOURS. THU
MORNING SHOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THIS COOL SNAP...WITH MINS
GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 40S IN THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. EVEN HAVE SOME LOW 40S CODED UP FOR THE USUAL
COOL SPOTS OF RANDOLPH/POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.
THURSDAY WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY. ENOUGH OF A PINCH OF MOISTURE REMAINS
AROUND 850MB TO RESULT IN SOME FLAT-CU UNDERNEATH STABLE CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AT 800MB...STILL ALL IN ALL SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
FOR ALL. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARGING MAX TEMPS...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE AT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER
FLOW BACKS TO SW AS A POTENT S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER/MID
MISS VALLEY. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING THE USUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND PARTICULARLY INTO FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE WHOLE WILL BE AROUND 5-7 DEGREES WARMER
VERSUS WED NIGHT WITH READING MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF THE S/W TROUGH TO OUR SW
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY. 925MB AND
850MB TEMPS WOULD INDICATE WARMER MAX TEMP POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY BUT
THINKING THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM FULL HEATING
POTENTIAL...STILL EXPECTING TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AS WELL BY AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
PARTICULARLY HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES
AND ALONG THE EAST/SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS BY THE 21Z FRI-00Z SAT
TIME FRAME. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO RAMP UP WITH THE CAP
AROUND 700MB SO HAVE LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AND THEN REMAIN NEARBY THOUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH JUST
SOME SCATTERED CU REMAINING. THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS THIS EVENING...BUT LINGER LONGER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
DIFFICULT FOG FORECAST TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME FLOW AND DRYING AIR IN
PLACE WHICH WOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...BUT COOL TEMPS ABOVE
WARM RIVER WATER COULD STILL FORM SOME VALLEY FOG IN THE MOST
SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WITH NW FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...ALSO EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS TO FORM ON THE WESTERN
SLOPES.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH A FEW CU DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT
MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/50/LS
NEAR TERM...MZ/LS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
308 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES BETWEEN TWO COLD FRONTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND WEST. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS THAT IS SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR
REGION. THIS UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY 45 KT OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR AND 1500 J/KG OF M/L CAPE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRYING TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED ACROSS THE
REGION EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON CONTAINED DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS.
THERE APPEARS TO NOW BE A POOL OF STABLE AIR BETWEEN THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION AND OUR AREA...WITH THE RAP SPC ANALYSIS INDICATING ONLY
500 J/KG OF M/L CAPE AT BEST ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH THE NEAR SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE RISE DUE
TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT THAT
MID LEVELS WILL SUFFICIENTLY MOISTEN AHEAD OF THIS LINE BEFORE IT
CROSSES EASTERN INDIANA INTO OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. CURRENT THINKING FROM THIS FORECASTER IS THAT CONVECTION
WILL BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS IT ENTERS OUR AREA...WITH SUFFICIENT
FORCING TO PRODUCE MAINLY SUB SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
OUR AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE CELLS WILL BE ACROSS OUR WEST...WHERE
CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH UNLIKELY
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILN CWA.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE 60S. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 50S BEFORE SUNRISE...DEEPER INTO THE
COLDER AIRMASS. THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER
60S AS THE FRONT MAY BE JUST CROSSING THOSE ZONES AROUND SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A CANADIAN AIRMASS THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOWER 70S DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR THE DATE.
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING
ON WEDNESDAY AND LAGGING COLD AIR ALOFT...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST OVERALL DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS OUR AREA.
AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO
MODIFY...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS EVENTUALLY PUSHING UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY SATURDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF IN REGARD
TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF STATES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LOWER END POPS WITH THIS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
OUR FA. THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF TRANSITIONS
TO SOMEWHAT MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED GFS ENDS UP BEING
RIGHT...WE WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING IFR. MORE CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THOSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT TAF SITES STARTING AT 21Z. ONCE THE
INITIAL BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES IN AND THEN WEAKENS WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE
TO 20 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SHIFT
IN DIRECTION TO WEST TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1123 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER LAKE HURON WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ITS SOUTHWARD
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN PA THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
SLOW MOVING/ANCHORED CELLS NOW OVER LOWER SUSQ. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE PROPOGATING NORTHWARD OVER THE
FRONTAL ZONE WHICH HAD EARLIER ENHANCED STORMS OVER CENTRAL VA. 2
INCH PWATS AND LITTLE RELATIVE WIND FLOW ARE MAKING ANOTHER BATCH
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE SE. FFW NOW IN EFFECT FOR
CENTRAL/EASTERN LANCASTER CO. HAVE THUS LINGERED PRECIP LONGER
AND MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE FROM TSRA.
635 PM UPDATE...
KILLED IT. LIGHT ANVIL RAIN/VIRGA SEEN ON THE RADAR WAS THE LAST
STRAW. WILL LEAVE IN CHC SHRA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS IN THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...THE DRY AIR IS THROUGH FIG/BFD/JST...BUT JUST ARRIVING
IN UNV/AOO.
6 PM UPDATE...
ANTICIPATE DROPPING SVR423 SOON. AM LEARY OF DROPPING IT RIGHT
NOW - STILL HAVE ANOTHER HR OR SO BEFORE THE FINAL GOOD PUSH GETS
THROUGH LANCASTER CO. AFTER A FLARE UP OF STRONGER CONVECTION
CLOSE TO THE GOOD FORCING AND IN MORE-SUNNY AREAS OVER NRN
PA...THE LAST LINE OF SHOWERS SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN WEAKENED TO THE
POINT OF USELESSNESS BY THE CLOUDS/COOLING/STABILIZATION SPREADING
ONCE AGAIN OVER CTP/S SERN COS.
EARLIER...
SFC COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KELM...SSW TO KFIG AND KJST
AT 1830Z. HI RES VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUICK CLEARING
BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH JUST SCTD FLAT TO MDT CU TO THE WEST OF THE
RT 219 CORRIDOR.
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WARM AND SOUPY AIR WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCATTERED TSRA WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS
AS THEY MOVE INTO AN AREA OF HIGH MU CAPE EXCEEDING 2000
J/KG...AND A POOL OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE.
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASING INTENSITY TREND OF THE
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS
AND TWD THE SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH PWATS...COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE CAPE...IMPLY THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
AND ADJACENT SERN PA. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF TSRA TO MOVE QUICKLY NE ACROSS
YORK...LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES THROUGH 23Z...WITH LOCALIZED
2-3 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN OUR CURRENT FFG VALUES...THE SLOW/STEADY EWD PROGRESS OF
TSRA LINE SEGMENTS ON THE HIGH RES MODELS...AND THE ANTICIPATED
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL TSRA...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR LIKELY THAT FCST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRESENT A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE THIS
AFTN...AND THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 22-24Z.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE L-M70S
OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES....TO THE U70S AND L80S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN A LITTLE /UNTIL AFTER 06Z/ AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR SE COUNTIES AND BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE MEAN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WELL INTO THE NIGHT DOWN
THERE. ELSEWHERE...THE WELCOME ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING GENERALLY SCT HIGH BASED STRATO
CU OR ALTO CU TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES DURING THE
EVENING.
MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE WED WILL BE IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
CENTRAL ZONES...AND LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR OUT TO THE ENE AND BECOME LOCATED OVER
SRN QUEBEC BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WED.
THE TRAILING MID-UPPER LVL THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES INCREASING TO AROUND 6C/KM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GRT LKS AND NOSE INTO OUR WRN ZONES LATE. THE COOL AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AMT OF CU
ACROSS THE NW MTNS WED...WITH A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF MORNING/MIDDAY SUNSHINE WITH MIX WITH SOME
MDT CU ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY.
THE LARGEST NEGATIVE 925/850 TEMPS ANOMALIES IN GEFS DATA ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE M/U60S
EXPECTED. READINGS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR 80F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL RETREAT INTO NORTHEASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MASS FIELDS LOOK VERY
SIMILAR AMONG ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE DRAGGING A LINGERING UPPER LVL TROF THAT
IS JUST WEST OF PA...EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOC NEG PWAT ANOMALIES SHOULD INITIALLY PROVIDE
CENTRAL PA WITH A PERIOD OF FAIR WX THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHC OF
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME DISPARITY ON THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE OUTPUT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SO HAVE
BACKED UP SLIGHTLY ON POPS...BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN AFTN
AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA. AFTER A COOL MIDWEEK...MEAN TEMPS SHOULD
CREEP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DUE TO WARMER
NIGHTS.
A FAIR AMT OF CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGHS BLW NORMAL. POPS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST
LOOKS UNSETTLED...WITH CENTRAL PA REMAINING ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
UPPER TROF WITH DAILY OPPORTUNITY/S FOR SHOWERS/TSRA. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR THE LONG TERM IS HOW THE TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
INTO NEXT WEEK. A STRONG 600 (DAM) HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION.
850MB TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE 14C RANGE AND
POSSIBLE INCREASING INTO THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A WARMER PERIOD...AND WITH ZONAL FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL TAF UPDATES SINCE 7 PM. SMALL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR MDT AND LNS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
RATHER DEEP UPPER LVL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT
NE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLDS...EXPECT WINDS TO BE WEAK
ENOUGH FOR SOME FOG...GIVEN HOW WET IT HAS BEEN THIS
SUMMER. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF...SO WILL THE TEMPS.
FOR WED...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW
AT BFD. STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THU...AS THE UPPER
LVL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
SE FLOW MAY BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO CENTRAL PA
FOR THE PERIOD LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...AM FOG...SCT AFT SHOWERS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
935 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER LAKE HURON WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ITS SOUTHWARD
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN PA THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
SLOW MOVING/ANCHORED CELLS NOW OVER LOWER SUSQ. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE PROPOGATING NORTHWARD OVER THE
FRONTAL ZONE WHICH HAD EARLIER ENHANCED STORMS OVER CENTRAL VA. 2
INCH PWATS AND LITTLE RELATIVE WIND FLOW ARE MAKING ANOTHER BATCH
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE SE. FFW NOW IN EFFECT FOR
CENTRAL/EASTERN LANCASTER CO. HAVE THUS LINGERED PRECIP LONGER
AND MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE FROM TSRA.
635 PM UPDATE...
KILLED IT. LIGHT ANVIL RAIN/VIRGA SEEN ON THE RADAR WAS THE LAST
STRAW. WILL LEAVE IN CHC SHRA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS IN THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...THE DRY AIR IS THROUGH FIG/BFD/JST...BUT JUST ARRIVING
IN UNV/AOO.
6 PM UPDATE...
ANTICIPATE DROPPING SVR423 SOON. AM LEARY OF DROPPING IT RIGHT
NOW - STILL HAVE ANOTHER HR OR SO BEFORE THE FINAL GOOD PUSH GETS
THROUGH LANCASTER CO. AFTER A FLARE UP OF STRONGER CONVECTION
CLOSE TO THE GOOD FORCING AND IN MORE-SUNNY AREAS OVER NRN
PA...THE LAST LINE OF SHOWERS SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN WEAKENED TO THE
POINT OF USELESSNESS BY THE CLOUDS/COOLING/STABILIZATION SPREADING
ONCE AGAIN OVER CTP/S SERN COS.
EARLIER...
SFC COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KELM...SSW TO KFIG AND KJST
AT 1830Z. HI RES VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUICK CLEARING
BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH JUST SCTD FLAT TO MDT CU TO THE WEST OF THE
RT 219 CORRIDOR.
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WARM AND SOUPY AIR WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCATTERED TSRA WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS
AS THEY MOVE INTO AN AREA OF HIGH MU CAPE EXCEEDING 2000
J/KG...AND A POOL OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE.
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASING INTENSITY TREND OF THE
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS
AND TWD THE SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH PWATS...COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE CAPE...IMPLY THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
AND ADJACENT SERN PA. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF TSRA TO MOVE QUICKLY NE ACROSS
YORK...LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES THROUGH 23Z...WITH LOCALIZED
2-3 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN OUR CURRENT FFG VALUES...THE SLOW/STEADY EWD PROGRESS OF
TSRA LINE SEGMENTS ON THE HIGH RES MODELS...AND THE ANTICIPATED
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL TSRA...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR LIKELY THAT FCST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRESENT A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE THIS
AFTN...AND THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 22-24Z.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE L-M70S
OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES....TO THE U70S AND L80S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN A LITTLE /UNTIL AFTER 06Z/ AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR SE COUNTIES AND BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE MEAN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WELL INTO THE NIGHT DOWN
THERE. ELSEWHERE...THE WELCOME ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING GENERALLY SCT HIGH BASED STRATO
CU OR ALTO CU TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES DURING THE
EVENING.
MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE WED WILL BE IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
CENTRAL ZONES...AND LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR OUT TO THE ENE AND BECOME LOCATED OVER
SRN QUEBEC BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WED.
THE TRAILING MID-UPPER LVL THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES INCREASING TO AROUND 6C/KM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GRT LKS AND NOSE INTO OUR WRN ZONES LATE. THE COOL AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AMT OF CU
ACROSS THE NW MTNS WED...WITH A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF MORNING/MIDDAY SUNSHINE WITH MIX WITH SOME
MDT CU ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY.
THE LARGEST NEGATIVE 925/850 TEMPS ANOMALIES IN GEFS DATA ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE M/U60S
EXPECTED. READINGS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR 80F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL RETREAT INTO NORTHEASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MASS FIELDS LOOK VERY
SIMILAR AMONG ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE DRAGGING A LINGERING UPPER LVL TROF THAT
IS JUST WEST OF PA...EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOC NEG PWAT ANOMALIES SHOULD INITIALLY PROVIDE
CENTRAL PA WITH A PERIOD OF FAIR WX THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHC OF
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME DISPARITY ON THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE OUTPUT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SO HAVE
BACKED UP SLIGHTLY ON POPS...BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN AFTN
AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA. AFTER A COOL MIDWEEK...MEAN TEMPS SHOULD
CREEP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DUE TO WARMER
NIGHTS.
A FAIR AMT OF CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGHS BLW NORMAL. POPS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST
LOOKS UNSETTLED...WITH CENTRAL PA REMAINING ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
UPPER TROF WITH DAILY OPPORTUNITY/S FOR SHOWERS/TSRA. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR THE LONG TERM IS HOW THE TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
INTO NEXT WEEK. A STRONG 600 (DAM) HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION.
850MB TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE 14C RANGE AND
POSSIBLE INCREASING INTO THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A WARMER PERIOD...AND WITH ZONAL FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RATHER DEEP UPPER LVL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
WILL LIFT NE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLDS...EXPECT WINDS TO BE WEAK
ENOUGH FOR SOME FOG...GIVEN HOW WET IT HAS BEEN THIS
SUMMER. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF...SO WILL THE TEMPS.
FOR WED...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW
AT BFD. STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THU...AS THE UPPER
LVL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
SE FLOW MAY BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO CENTRAL PA
FOR THE PERIOD LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...AM FOG...SCT AFT SHOWERS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
757 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER LAKE HURON WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ITS SOUTHWARD
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN PA THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
635 PM UPDATE...
KILLED IT. LIGHT ANVIL RAIN/VIRGA SEEN ON THE RADAR WAS THE LAST
STRAW. WILL LEAVE IN CHC SHRA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS IN THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...THE DRY AIR IS THROUGH FIG/BFD/JST...BUT JUST ARRIVING
IN UNV/AOO.
6 PM UPDATE...
ANTICIPATE DROPPING SVR423 SOON. AM LEARY OF DROPPING IT RIGHT
NOW - STILL HAVE ANOTHER HR OR SO BEFORE THE FINAL GOOD PUSH GETS
THROUGH LANCASTER CO. AFTER A FLARE UP OF STRONGER CONVECTION
CLOSE TO THE GOOD FORCING AND IN MORE-SUNNY AREAS OVER NRN
PA...THE LAST LINE OF SHOWERS SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN WEAKENED TO THE
POINT OF USELESSNESS BY THE CLOUDS/COOLING/STABILIZATION SPREADING
ONCE AGAIN OVER CTP/S SERN COS.
EARLIER...
SFC COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KELM...SSW TO KFIG AND KJST
AT 1830Z. HI RES VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUICK CLEARING
BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH JUST SCTD FLAT TO MDT CU TO THE WEST OF THE
RT 219 CORRIDOR.
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WARM AND SOUPY AIR WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCATTERED TSRA WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS
AS THEY MOVE INTO AN AREA OF HIGH MU CAPE EXCEEDING 2000
J/KG...AND A POOL OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE.
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASING INTENSITY TREND OF THE
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS
AND TWD THE SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH PWATS...COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE CAPE...IMPLY THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
AND ADJACENT SERN PA. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF TSRA TO MOVE QUICKLY NE ACROSS
YORK...LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES THROUGH 23Z...WITH LOCALIZED
2-3 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN OUR CURRENT FFG VALUES...THE SLOW/STEADY EWD PROGRESS OF
TSRA LINE SEGMENTS ON THE HIGH RES MODELS...AND THE ANTICIPATED
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL TSRA...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR LIKELY THAT FCST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRESENT A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE THIS
AFTN...AND THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 22-24Z.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE L-M70S
OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES....TO THE U70S AND L80S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN A LITTLE /UNTIL AFTER 06Z/ AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR SE COUNTIES AND BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE MEAN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WELL INTO THE NIGHT DOWN
THERE. ELSEWHERE...THE WELCOME ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING GENERALLY SCT HIGH BASED STRATO
CU OR ALTO CU TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES DURING THE
EVENING.
MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE WED WILL BE IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
CENTRAL ZONES...AND LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR OUT TO THE ENE AND BECOME LOCATED OVER
SRN QUEBEC BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WED.
THE TRAILING MID-UPPER LVL THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES INCREASING TO AROUND 6C/KM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GRT LKS AND NOSE INTO OUR WRN ZONES LATE. THE COOL AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AMT OF CU
ACROSS THE NW MTNS WED...WITH A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF MORNING/MIDDAY SUNSHINE WITH MIX WITH SOME
MDT CU ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY.
THE LARGEST NEGATIVE 925/850 TEMPS ANOMALIES IN GEFS DATA ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE M/U60S
EXPECTED. READINGS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR 80F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL RETREAT INTO NORTHEASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MASS FIELDS LOOK VERY
SIMILAR AMONG ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE DRAGGING A LINGERING UPPER LVL TROF THAT
IS JUST WEST OF PA...EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOC NEG PWAT ANOMALIES SHOULD INITIALLY PROVIDE
CENTRAL PA WITH A PERIOD OF FAIR WX THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHC OF
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME DISPARITY ON THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE OUTPUT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SO HAVE
BACKED UP SLIGHTLY ON POPS...BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN AFTN
AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA. AFTER A COOL MIDWEEK...MEAN TEMPS SHOULD
CREEP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DUE TO WARMER
NIGHTS.
A FAIR AMT OF CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGHS BLW NORMAL. POPS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST
LOOKS UNSETTLED...WITH CENTRAL PA REMAINING ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
UPPER TROF WITH DAILY OPPORTUNITY/S FOR SHOWERS/TSRA. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR THE LONG TERM IS HOW THE TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
INTO NEXT WEEK. A STRONG 600 (DAM) HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION.
850MB TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE 14C RANGE AND
POSSIBLE INCREASING INTO THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A WARMER PERIOD...AND WITH ZONAL FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RATHER DEEP UPPER LVL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
WILL LIFT NE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLDS...EXPECT WINDS TO BE WEAK
ENOUGH FOR SOME FOG...GIVEN HOW WET IT HAS BEEN THIS
SUMMER. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF...SO WILL THE TEMPS.
FOR WED...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW
AT BFD. STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THU...AS THE UPPER
LVL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
SE FLOW MAY BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO CENTRAL PA
FOR THE PERIOD LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...AM FOG...SCT AFT SHOWERS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
608 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...BUT WILL KEEP CHC VALUES. RADAR SHOWS MULTIPLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY SERVING FOR TRIGGER FOR
FUTURE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...THE UPDATE WILL ATTEMPT TO FEATURE
TEMPERATURE CHANGES AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARIES.
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY... SBCAPES ACROSS THE CWA ARE AT LEAST 1000
J/KG WITH AREAS EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WIND FIELD
ALOFT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW INITIAL SIGNS OF INCREASING AS HEIGHTS
FALL OVER THE MIDWEST. ALSO... WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW IS EVIDENT IN
SURFACE WINDS DUE TO PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL MOVE
STEADILY EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT QUITE POSSIBLE. PER
THE RECENT MCD FROM SPC... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING NUMBER OF
SHOWERS... BUT WILL HAVE AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT AND CONVECTION POSSIBLY
TRIGGERED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTION. POPS WILL BE INCREASED AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES INTO MOUNTAINS.
HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS WILL EXIST ACROSS CWA ON TUESDAY... BUT
WILL LOWER POPS SOMEWHAT BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS FRONT
ADVANCES THROUGH THE PIEDMONT ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ZONES. LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...
BUT FAIRLY STRONG WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES MIGHT HELP ORGANIZE
CONVECTION TO THE EXTENT THAT DAMAGING WINDS.. AND POSSIBLY SMALL
HAIL... OCCUR. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM... LOWER
AND MIDDLE 70S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW THOSE OF
TODAY... BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE... 85 TO 90 ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT AND 75 TO 80 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIE FROM ABOUT CLT...THROUGH THE
UPSTATE INTO NE GA TUE EVENING. THEREFORE WE EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRYER AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
FRONT AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE AREA WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE
PRECIP. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE DRIVEN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON WED. CP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WED AND CONTROL THE WEATHER
THROUGH THU. MODELS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON WED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
THU EVENING PROVIDING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY THU...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE AN UP TICK IN CLOUDS AS WINDS VEER TO THE SE.
THE BIG STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL BREAK ANY RECORDS. THE
URRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST FOR THU MORNING HAS A LOW OF 57 AT AVL WITH
THE RECORD OF 54 AND 64 AT CLT WHERE THE RECROD IS 62.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 215 PM EDT MONDAY...BY THE END OF THE WEEK HEIGHTS WILL RISE
SOMEWHAT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEAR JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW SE TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO
SWING CROSS THE REGION ON SAT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SE U.S. INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND A SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ESTABLISHED...SOME
MAINLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT THE AREA ON SAT. ALSO...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL IMPROVE ON SATURDAY AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HENCE...IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ON SAT AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO
WPC`S LIKELY POPS. IT APPEARS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH SUN WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUING
SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME
MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE
BERMUDA HIGH BEGINS TO RE-EASTABLISH ITSELF. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD REMOVE CIN AROUND 16 TO 17Z
RESULTING IN RAPID CU AND TCU FORMATION AS RISING PARCELS TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE CAPE. CLOUD BASES WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6K FT
RANGE. GFS AND RAP CAPES ARE RATHER MODEST WHILE NAM IS MORE ROBUST
WITH VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD AFTER 17Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHARLOTTE PROFILER INDICATES SOUTHWEST
WIND OF AT LEAST 10 KT UP TO 4K FT LATE THIS MORNING... SO EXPECT
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND DIRECTION TO CONTINUE. IF LEE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON... WIND DIRECTION COULD
BECOME VARIABLE ALTHOUGH SPEED SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
REMAINDER TAF SITES... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD REMOVE CIN NEAR 15Z AT
KAVL AND BY 17Z AT REMAINDER TAF SITES RESULTING IN RAPID CU AND TCU
FORMATION AS RISING PARCELS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE CAPE. CLOUD
BASES WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6 K FT RANGE. GFS AND RAP CAPES ARE RATHER
MODEST WHILE NAM IS MORE ROBUST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS VICINITY KAVL WITH COVERAGE VICINITY OTHER AIRFIELDS
INCREASING DURING MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE WIND WILL BE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT ALTHOUGH NON-MOUNTAIN SITES COULD SEE
VARIABLE DIRECTION AND LIGHT SPEED BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OVER DUE
TO LEE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. VFR
WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
22-04Z 04-10Z 10-16Z 16-22Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 97%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 94% MED 69% MED 66%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY JULY 17...
AVL...54 IN 1939
CLT...62 IN 2004
GSP...60 IN 1886
RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY JULY 18...
AVL...54 IN 1925
CLT...62 IN 1896
GSP...60 IN 1886
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LGL/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...LGL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY... SBCAPES ACROSS THE CWA ARE AT LEAST 1000
J/KG WITH AREAS EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WIND FIELD
ALOFT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW INITIAL SIGNS OF INCREASING AS HEIGHTS
FALL OVER THE MIDWEST. ALSO... WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW IS EVIDENT IN
SURFACE WINDS DUE TO PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL MOVE
STEADILY EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT QUITE POSSIBLE. PER
THE RECENT MCD FROM SPC... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING NUMBER OF
SHOWERS... BUT WILL HAVE AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT AND CONVECTION POSSIBLY
TRIGGERED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTION. POPS WILL BE INCREASED AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES INTO MOUNTAINS.
HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS WILL EXIST ACROSS CWA ON TUESDAY... BUT
WILL LOWER POPS SOMEWHAT BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS FRONT
ADVANCES THROUGH THE PIEDMONT ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ZONES. LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...
BUT FAIRLY STRONG WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES MIGHT HELP ORGANIZE
CONVECTION TO THE EXTENT THAT DAMAGING WINDS.. AND POSSIBLY SMALL
HAIL... OCCUR. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM... LOWER
AND MIDDLE 70S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW THOSE OF
TODAY... BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE... 85 TO 90 ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT AND 75 TO 80 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIE FROM ABOUT CLT...THROUGH THE
UPSTATE INTO NE GA TUE EVENING. THEREFORE WE EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRYER AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
FRONT AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE AREA WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE
PRECIP. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE DRIVEN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON WED. CP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WED AND CONTROL THE WEATHER
THROUGH THU. MODELS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON WED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
THU EVENING PROVIDING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY THU...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE AN UP TICK IN CLOUDS AS WINDS VEER TO THE SE.
THE BIG STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL BREAK ANY RECORDS. THE
URRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST FOR THU MORNING HAS A LOW OF 57 AT AVL WITH
THE RECORD OF 54 AND 64 AT CLT WHERE THE RECROD IS 62.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 215 PM EDT MONDAY...BY THE END OF THE WEEK HEIGHTS WILL RISE
SOMEWHAT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEAR JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW SE TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO
SWING CROSS THE REGION ON SAT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SE U.S. INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND A SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ESTABLISHED...SOME
MAINLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT THE AREA ON SAT. ALSO...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL IMPROVE ON SATURDAY AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HENCE...IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ON SAT AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO
WPC`S LIKELY POPS. IT APPEARS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH SUN WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUING
SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME
MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE
BERMUDA HIGH BEGINS TO RE-EASTABLISH ITSELF. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD REMOVE CIN AROUND 16 TO 17Z
RESULTING IN RAPID CU AND TCU FORMATION AS RISING PARCELS TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE CAPE. CLOUD BASES WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6K FT
RANGE. GFS AND RAP CAPES ARE RATHER MODEST WHILE NAM IS MORE ROBUST
WITH VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD AFTER 17Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHARLOTTE PROFILER INDICATES SOUTHWEST
WIND OF AT LEAST 10 KT UP TO 4K FT LATE THIS MORNING... SO EXPECT
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND DIRECTION TO CONTINUE. IF LEE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON... WIND DIRECTION COULD
BECOME VARIABLE ALTHOUGH SPEED SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
REMAINDER TAF SITES... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD REMOVE CIN NEAR 15Z AT
KAVL AND BY 17Z AT REMAINDER TAF SITES RESULTING IN RAPID CU AND TCU
FORMATION AS RISING PARCELS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE CAPE. CLOUD
BASES WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6 K FT RANGE. GFS AND RAP CAPES ARE RATHER
MODEST WHILE NAM IS MORE ROBUST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS VICINITY KAVL WITH COVERAGE VICINITY OTHER AIRFIELDS
INCREASING DURING MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE WIND WILL BE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT ALTHOUGH NON-MOUNTAIN SITES COULD SEE
VARIABLE DIRECTION AND LIGHT SPEED BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OVER DUE
TO LEE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. VFR
WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-19Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% MED 75%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY JULY 17...
AVL...54 IN 1939
CLT...62 IN 2004
GSP...60 IN 1886
RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY JULY 18...
AVL...54 IN 1925
CLT...62 IN 1896
GSP...60 IN 1886
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...LGL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
241 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY... SBCAPES ACROSS THE CWA ARE AT LEAST 1000
J/KG WITH AREAS EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WIND FIELD
ALOFT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW INITIAL SIGNS OF INCREASING AS HEIGHTS
FALL OVER THE MIDWEST. ALSO... WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW IS EVIDENT IN
SURFACE WINDS DUE TO PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL MOVE
STEADILY EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT QUITE POSSIBLE. PER
THE RECENT MCD FROM SPC... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING NUMBER OF
SHOWERS... BUT WILL HAVE AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT AND CONVECTION POSSIBLY
TRIGGERED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTION. POPS WILL BE INCREASED AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES INTO MOUNTAINS.
HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS WILL EXIST ACROSS CWA ON TUESDAY... BUT
WILL LOWER POPS SOMEWHAT BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS FRONT
ADVANCES THROUGH THE PIEDMONT ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ZONES. LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...
BUT FAIRLY STRONG WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES MIGHT HELP ORGANIZE
CONVECTION TO THE EXTENT THAT DAMAGING WINDS.. AND POSSIBLY SMALL
HAIL... OCCUR. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM... LOWER
AND MIDDLE 70S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW THOSE OF
TODAY... BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE... 85 TO 90 ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT AND 75 TO 80 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIE FROM ABOUT CLT...THROUGH THE
UPSTATE INTO NE GA TUE EVENING. THEREFORE WE EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRYER AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
FRONT AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE AREA WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE
PRECIP. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE DRIVEN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON WED. CP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WED AND CONTROL THE WEATHER
THROUGH THU. MODELS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON WED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
THU EVENING PROVIDING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY THU...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE AN UP TICK IN CLOUDS AS WINDS VEER TO THE SE.
THE BIG STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL BREAK ANY RECORDS. THE
URRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST FOR THU MORNING HAS A LOW OF 57 AT AVL WITH
THE RECORD OF 54 AND 64 AT CLT WHERE THE RECROD IS 62.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 215 PM EDT MONDAY...BY THE END OF THE WEEK HEIGHTS WILL RISE
SOMEWHAT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEAR JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW SE TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO
SWING CROSS THE REGION ON SAT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SE U.S. INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND A SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ESTABLISHED...SOME
MAINLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT THE AREA ON SAT. ALSO...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL IMPROVE ON SATURDAY AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HENCE...IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ON SAT AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO
WPC`S LIKELY POPS. IT APPEARS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH SUN WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUING
SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME
MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE
BERMUDA HIGH BEGINS TO RE-EASTABLISH ITSELF. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BY SATURDAY THE GULF FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...WHILE
THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BEGINS TO WEAKEN. BY
SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE RETREATED NORTH...AND A WARM
MOIST AIR FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE NORMAL WEATHER TO THE
AREA.
INITIALLY...BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL IN THE COOL AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT. BY SATURDAY THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE LIMITED BY BOTH CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES START TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD REMOVE CIN AROUND 16 TO 17Z
RESULTING IN RAPID CU AND TCU FORMATION AS RISING PARCELS TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE CAPE. CLOUD BASES WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6K FT
RANGE. GFS AND RAP CAPES ARE RATHER MODEST WHILE NAM IS MORE ROBUST
WITH VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD AFTER 17Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHARLOTTE PROFILER INDICATES SOUTHWEST
WIND OF AT LEAST 10 KT UP TO 4K FT LATE THIS MORNING... SO EXPECT
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND DIRECTION TO CONTINUE. IF LEE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON... WIND DIRECTION COULD
BECOME VARIABLE ALTHOUGH SPEED SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
REMAINDER TAF SITES... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD REMOVE CIN NEAR 15Z AT
KAVL AND BY 17Z AT REMAINDER TAF SITES RESULTING IN RAPID CU AND TCU
FORMATION AS RISING PARCELS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE CAPE. CLOUD
BASES WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6 K FT RANGE. GFS AND RAP CAPES ARE RATHER
MODEST WHILE NAM IS MORE ROBUST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS VICINITY KAVL WITH COVERAGE VICINITY OTHER AIRFIELDS
INCREASING DURING MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE WIND WILL BE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT ALTHOUGH NON-MOUNTAIN SITES COULD SEE
VARIABLE DIRECTION AND LIGHT SPEED BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OVER DUE
TO LEE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. VFR
WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% MED 66%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY JULY 17...
AVL...54 IN 1939
CLT...62 IN 2004
GSP...60 IN 1886
RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY JULY 18...
AVL...54 IN 1925
CLT...62 IN 1896
GSP...60 IN 1886
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...LGL
CLIMATE...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
202 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER
WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE INTO THE PIEDMOTN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
AT 1030 AM EDT MONDAY... LATE MORNING MODEL PROFILES INDICATE
SUFFICIENT CAPE EXISTS FOR CONVECTIVE CELLS TO DEVELOP... AS SOON AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES SUFFICIENTLY TO
REMOVE CIN. PER THE CURRENT FORECAST... MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT AND BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. NOAA PROFILERS IN THE FOOTHILLS DISPLAY A LIGHT WEST WIND
NEAR THE SURFACE WHILE NC DENR CHARLOTTE PROFILER HAS A SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT UP TO ABOUT 4K FT THEN BASICALLY WEST ALOFT... PERHAPS A
SIGN OF LEE TROUGH BECOMING MORE EVIDENT THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY..AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL SWING SEWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SEWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE
INCREASING SW/WSW FLOW IN LIGHT OF TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEAKLY CAPPED MID
LEVEL INVERSION LAYER WILL BE PRESENT AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH
THE HELP OF INCREASING H85 DOWNSLOPE +15KTS SWLY WINDS. HENCE...THIS
WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY CONVECTION OVER THE
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...THE MTN ZONES WILL SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME AND BETTER
BUOYANCY. WE WILL THUS FEATURE 40-50 POPS IN THE MTNS WITH 20-30 POP
OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
SEWARD...MODELS AGREE THAT A LINE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS
IT CROSSES THE MTNS. THE LATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE SPC HAS BACKED OFF TO OUR WEST...THOUGH 5
PERCENT OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT STILL COVERS MUCH OF THE CWA. WITH
THAT SAID...POPS RAMP UP TO LIKELY OVER THE NC MTNS WITH LOW END
CHANCE OVER THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIE FROM ABOUT CLT...THROUGH THE
UPSTATE INTO NE GA TUE EVENING. THEREFORE WE EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRYER AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
FRONT AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE AREA WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE
PRECIP. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE DRIVEN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON WED. CP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WED AND CONTROL THE WEATHER
THROUGH THU. MODELS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON WED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
THU EVENING PROVIDING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY THU...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE AN UP TICK IN CLOUDS AS WINDS VEER TO THE SE.
THE BIG STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL BREAK ANY RECORDS. THE
URRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST FOR THU MORNING HAS A LOW OF 57 AT AVL WITH
THE RECORD OF 54 AND 64 AT CLT WHERE THE RECROD IS 62.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 215 PM EDT MONDAY...BY THE END OF THE WEEK HEIGHTS WILL RISE
SOMEWHAT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEAR JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW SE TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO
SWING CROSS THE REGION ON SAT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SE U.S. INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND A SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ESTABLISHED...SOME
MAINLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT THE AREA ON SAT. ALSO...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL IMPROVE ON SATURDAY AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HENCE...IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ON SAT AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO
WPC`S LIKELY POPS. IT APPEARS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH SUN WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUING
SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME
MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE
BERMUDA HIGH BEGINS TO RE-EASTABLISH ITSELF. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BY SATURDAY THE GULF FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...WHILE
THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BEGINS TO WEAKEN. BY
SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE RETREATED NORTH...AND A WARM
MOIST AIR FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE NORMAL WEATHER TO THE
AREA.
INITIALLY...BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL IN THE COOL AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT. BY SATURDAY THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE LIMITED BY BOTH CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES START TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD REMOVE CIN AROUND 16 TO 17Z
RESULTING IN RAPID CU AND TCU FORMATION AS RISING PARCELS TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE CAPE. CLOUD BASES WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6K FT
RANGE. GFS AND RAP CAPES ARE RATHER MODEST WHILE NAM IS MORE ROBUST
WITH VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD AFTER 17Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHARLOTTE PROFILER INDICATES SOUTHWEST
WIND OF AT LEAST 10 KT UP TO 4K FT LATE THIS MORNING... SO EXPECT
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND DIRECTION TO CONTINUE. IF LEE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON... WIND DIRECTION COULD
BECOME VARIABLE ALTHOUGH SPEED SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
REMAINDER TAF SITES... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD REMOVE CIN NEAR 15Z AT
KAVL AND BY 17Z AT REMAINDER TAF SITES RESULTING IN RAPID CU AND TCU
FORMATION AS RISING PARCELS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE CAPE. CLOUD
BASES WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6 K FT RANGE. GFS AND RAP CAPES ARE RATHER
MODEST WHILE NAM IS MORE ROBUST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS VICINITY KAVL WITH COVERAGE VICINITY OTHER AIRFIELDS
INCREASING DURING MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE WIND WILL BE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT ALTHOUGH NON-MOUNTAIN SITES COULD SEE
VARIABLE DIRECTION AND LIGHT SPEED BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OVER DUE
TO LEE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. VFR
WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% MED 66%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1030 AM EDT MONDAY... LATE MORNING MODEL PROFILES INDICATE
SUFFICIENT CAPE EXISTS FOR CONVECTIVE CELLS TO DEVELOP... AS SOON AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES SUFFICIENTLY TO
REMOVE CIN. PER THE CURRENT FORECAST... MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT AND BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. NOAA PROFILERS IN THE FOOTHILLS DISPLAY A LIGHT WEST WIND
NEAR THE SURFACE WHILE NC DENR CHARLOTTE PROFILER HAS A SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT UP TO ABOUT 4K FT THEN BASICALLY WEST ALOFT... PERHAPS A
SIGN OF LEE TROUGH BECOMING MORE EVIDENT THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY..AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL SWING SEWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SEWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE
INCREASING SW/WSW FLOW IN LIGHT OF TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEAKLY CAPPED MID
LEVEL INVERSION LAYER WILL BE PRESENT AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH
THE HELP OF INCREASING H85 DOWNSLOPE +15KTS SWLY WINDS. HENCE...THIS
WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY CONVECTION OVER THE
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...THE MTN ZONES WILL SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME AND BETTER
BUOYANCY. WE WILL THUS FEATURE 40-50 POPS IN THE MTNS WITH 20-30 POP
OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
SEWARD...MODELS AGREE THAT A LINE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS
IT CROSSES THE MTNS. THE LATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE SPC HAS BACKED OFF TO OUR WEST...THOUGH 5
PERCENT OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT STILL COVERS MUCH OF THE CWA. WITH
THAT SAID...POPS RAMP UP TO LIKELY OVER THE NC MTNS WITH LOW END
CHANCE OVER THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER MI...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST. THE LOW
REACHES QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL REACH THE TN VALLEY LATE IN THE
TUESDAY...AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT REACHES THE PIEDMONT BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND THE COAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY OVER THE PIEDMONT. QPF WILL BE LIMITED
BY THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AS
THE BOUNDARY DECELERATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND OVER THE GULF
STATES. A RETURN FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF OVER THE STALLED FRONT
WILL PROVIDE MOIST LIFT TO CREATE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THAT WILL SPREAD
IN NW GA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 AM EDT MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF COAST. THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM GO OUT OF PHASE BY FRIDAY...WHEN THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH REMAINS IN EASTERN CANADA...AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT
OF THE PLAINS CAUSES A RETROGRESSION OF THE MEAN SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. A CLOSED LOW FORMS IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER LAKE MI ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE TROUGH
AXIS MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS.
ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH A
TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH FORM THE ROCKIES TO NEW ENGLAND. CLOUD COVER FORMED BY
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FRONT WILL WASTE NO
TIME SPREADING EAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO TO THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY. WEAK
MOIST ASCENT OVER THE GULF FRONT AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY THE GULF FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...WHILE
THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BEGINS TO WEAKEN. BY
SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE RETREATED NORTH...AND A WARM
MOIST AIR FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE NORMAL WEATHER TO THE
AREA.
INITIALLY...BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL IN THE COOL AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT. BY SATURDAY THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE LIMITED BY BOTH CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES START TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD REMOVE CIN AROUND 16 TO 17Z
RESULTING IN RAPID CU AND TCU FORMATION AS RISING PARCELS TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE CAPE. CLOUD BASES WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6K FT
RANGE. GFS AND RAP CAPES ARE RATHER MODEST WHILE NAM IS MORE ROBUST
WITH VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD AFTER 17Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHARLOTTE PROFILER INDICATES SOUTHWEST
WIND OF AT LEAST 10 KT UP TO 4K FT LATE THIS MORNING... SO EXPECT
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND DIRECTION TO CONTINUE. IF LEE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON... WIND DIRECTION COULD
BECOME VARIABLE ALTHOUGH SPEED SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
REMAINDER TAF SITES... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD REMOVE CIN NEAR 15Z AT
KAVL AND BY 17Z AT REMAINDER TAF SITES RESULTING IN RAPID CU AND TCU
FORMATION AS RISING PARCELS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE CAPE. CLOUD
BASES WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6 K FT RANGE. GFS AND RAP CAPES ARE RATHER
MODEST WHILE NAM IS MORE ROBUST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS VICINITY KAVL WITH COVERAGE VICINITY OTHER AIRFIELDS
INCREASING DURING MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE WIND WILL BE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT ALTHOUGH NON-MOUNTAIN SITES COULD SEE
VARIABLE DIRECTION AND LIGHT SPEED BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OVER DUE
TO LEE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. VFR
WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 93%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 86%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 93%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JOH/LGL
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JOH/LGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
858 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.MORNING UPDATE...
TAILORED BACK THE POPS QUITE A BIT OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SPRINGFIELD SW TO LINDEN...AND BEHIND
THIS. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THIS AREA.
MORE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP FROM
MIDDAY ON...WITH THE FOCUS ALONG THE SAME BOUNDARY BUT MORE THAN
LIKELY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN. KEPT LIKELY POPS 18Z ON. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO ALL AIRPORTS THIS TAF
PERIOD. LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IFR/MVFR VIS/CIGS WILL REACH
CKV BETWEEN 12-13Z AND BNA BY 14Z...BUT WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING CSV
BY 16-17Z. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR BNA/CSV WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR TSRA. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING TO INCREASE AND
BECOME WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON...THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT DUE TO
FROPA. PATCHY FOG THEN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT ALL AIRPORTS.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC IS CURRENTLY SHOWING CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY ENTERING THE NW
CORNER OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST BEFORE 12Z. NAM SHOWS TWO DISTINCT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH THIS APPROACHING
SYSTEM. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT, AND THEN WE GET THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, MIDDLE
TENNESSEE REMAINS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. BUT HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT, WITH 24-HOUR QPF FROM 12Z TODAY THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN PARTS OF EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
AFTERWARDS, LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS A
COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
630 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO ALL AIRPORTS THIS TAF
PERIOD. LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IFR/MVFR VIS/CIGS WILL REACH
CKV BETWEEN 12-13Z AND BNA BY 14Z...BUT WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING CSV
BY 16-17Z. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR BNA/CSV WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR TSRA. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING TO INCREASE AND
BECOME WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON...THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT DUE TO
FROPA. PATCHY FOG THEN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT ALL AIRPORTS.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC IS CURRENTLY SHOWING CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY ENTERING THE NW
CORNER OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST BEFORE 12Z. NAM SHOWS TWO DISTINCT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH THIS APPROACHING
SYSTEM. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT, AND THEN WE GET THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, MIDDLE
TENNESSEE REMAINS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. BUT HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT, WITH 24-HOUR QPF FROM 12Z TODAY THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN PARTS OF EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
AFTERWARDS, LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS A
COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
232 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC IS CURRENTLY SHOWING CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY ENTERING THE NW
CORNER OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST BEFORE 12Z. NAM SHOWS TWO DISTINCT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH THIS APPROACHING
SYSTEM. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT, AND THEN WE GET THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, MIDDLE
TENNESSEE REMAINS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. BUT HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT, WITH 24-HOUR QPF FROM 12Z TODAY THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN PARTS OF EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
AFTERWARDS, LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS A
COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 91 71 81 59 / 60 80 30 10
CLARKSVILLE 89 66 79 56 / 60 70 20 05
CROSSVILLE 85 67 77 55 / 60 60 70 10
COLUMBIA 92 71 83 59 / 50 80 30 10
LAWRENCEBURG 92 71 84 59 / 50 90 30 10
WAVERLY 90 67 80 56 / 60 80 20 05
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...EXACT INITIATING TIMING SHWRS/TSTMS & IMPACTS TAF SITES/
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. SEVERAL TAF ADMS POSSIBLE 14/12Z-15/06Z.
14/06Z-14/12Z...VFR WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN CI...EXPECT FOR TEMPO MVFR FOG
VSBYS CSV 14/09Z-14/13Z PER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING EFFECTS. PER
APPROACHING SFC FRONTS...ONE OF WHICH MIGHT WASH OUT ACROSS MID STATE AFTER
14/18Z PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM...AND A MORE ROBUST SFC FRONT
APPROACHING AND MOVING INTO MID STATE BY 15/06Z...WITH HIGH PRECIP WATER
VALUES PER AMBLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POTENTIAL...AT LEST DIURNAL INSTABILITY
INITIATED AND SUPPORTED...AND LIFT PROVIDED BY DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...ALL POINTING TO EVOLUTION
OF HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS MID STATE 14/12Z-15/06Z. SHORT TERM MODELS
NOW SHOWING SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS OHIO RIVER VALLEY APPROACHING 14/06Z MAY IMPACT
CKV/BNA SOONER THEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AND THUS MOVED UP IMPACT TIMES FROM
00Z TAF ISSUANCE. THUS...GENERALLY ADDRESSED...FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...A
PROGRESSION FORECAST FROM VFR VCTS REMARKS...WITH SOME TEMPO MVFR VSBYS PERIODS
IN BETWEEN...AS THERE MAY BE TWO ROUNDS OF SHWRS/TSTMS THAT MOVE THRU MID
STATE...BUT STILL EXPECTING MAIN IMPACTS OF SHWRS/TSTMS BETWEEN 14/20Z-15/06Z
WITH TEMPO HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS PLATEAU 15/01Z-15/06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/
UPDATE...
AT 03Z...THE MID STATE WAS FAIR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. DAY SHIFT FORECAST
AGAIN WAS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH OBSERVATIONS SO DID NOT FEEL NEED TO
DO MUCH IN THE WAY OF GRID EDITING.
REGARDING TOMORROWS STORM SEVERITY AND TIMING...SEEMS TO BE QUITE
A BIT OF VARIATION IN HOW TO HANDLE THE INITIAL WEAKER FRONT
PASSAGE TOMORROW MORNING. THE RUC13 MODEL WOULD INDICATE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH THE NAM/GFS
SIDING FOR MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ORIENTED ALONG THE FRONT AND THE
THIN SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WITH DIURNAL
HEATING NOT YET A PLAYER BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z WHEN THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO ARRIVE...TEND TO AGREE WITH THE A MORE FRONT CENTRIC
COVERAGE PATTERN. BASED OFF THE CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...WOULD THINK THAT HYPOTHESIS WOULD HOLD WATER.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN KY TO
SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND REACH THE TN/KY
BORDER BY AROUND 12Z. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...MAYBE UP TO THE 40 MPH
RANGE...BUT DO NOT THINK AT THIS TIME THOSE STORMS WOULD WARRANT
SEVERE CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES...HEAVY DOWNPOURS APPEAR LIKELY.
NOW...A SECOND...MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID
STATE LATE IN THE EVENING TOMORROW AND IT IS WHERE THE FOCUS IS
FOR SEVERE POSSIBILITY. WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS PROGGING THE
FRONT TO ENTER THE NW COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT TOMORROW
NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE TIMEFRAME IN WHICH STORM SEVERITY APPEARS
TO BE AT ITS HIGHEST. ALTHOUGH...WITH THE FORCING ARRIVING AFTER
WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS VERY MOIST ALL THE
WAY UP THE COLUMN...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS A BIT IN
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOES NOT DESTABILIZE AS
ADVERTISED DUE TO THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONSEQUENT
RAINFALL. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT MAIN CONCERN IS VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALIZED
AREAS. THE SECONDARY THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH HAIL BEING A RATHER
LOW RISK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...EXACT INITIATING TIMING SHWRS/TSTMS & IMPACTS TAF SITES/
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. SEVERAL TAF ADMS POSSIBLE 14/16Z-14/24Z. 14/00Z-
14/14Z...VFR WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN CI...EXPECT FOR TEMPO MVFR FOG VSBYS
CSV 14/09Z-14/13Z PER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING EFFECTS. PER APPROACHING
SFC FRONTS...ONE OF WHICH MIGHT WASH OUT ACROSS MID STATE AFTER 14/18Z
PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM...AND A MORE ROBUST SFC FRONT APPROACHING
MID STATE BY 00Z...WITH HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES PER AMBLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POTENTIAL...DIURNAL INSTABILITY...AND LIFT PROVIDED BY DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...ALL POINTING
TO EVOLUTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MID STATE 14/16Z-14/24Z. HAVE ADDRESSED
WITH A PROGRESSION FORECAST FROM VFR VCTS REMARKS TO MVFR VSBYS VFR/MVFR
CEILINGS SHWRS/TSTMS MAINLY 14/20Z-14/24Z WITH TEMPO HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 137 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...WARM, UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A SLOW-
MOVING COLD FRONT COMING TOGETHER NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
SCATTERED CELLS ARE DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU, AND ALSO TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. POP`S WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY TOMORROW AS THE FRONT
EDGES INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE SPC HAS KEPT US UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AND THIS IS
POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING ONLY MODEST
INSTABILITY SETTING UP TOMORROW WITH NO PRONOUNCED DRY LAYERS. SO
THIS EVENT, GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT, MAY MORPH
INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN SYSTEM. THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
COINCIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM (AND THE WARM FRONT COMING THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND) ARE WITHIN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LY FAVORED RANGE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FOR THE NEXT 240 HOURS, SO LOOK FOR A
SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE AFTER MONDAY NIGHT`S FROPA.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1211 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...
&&
.AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SE TX TODAY. THIS
HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
MAINLY EAST OF KGLS AND THEN W/SW OF LBX. HIGHER MOISTURE OF
1.8-1.9 INCH PRECIP WATER REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH LOWER
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE HOUSTON AREA. CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO COASTAL TERMINALS SO WILL CARRY A SHORT 3-4HR WINDOW
OF VCTS FOR KIAH SOUTHWARD ALTHOUGH KIAH MAY NOT BE AFFECTED BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH. WILL KEEP CIGS VFR AS WELL. TONIGHT EXPECT VFR CIGS
AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FRONT/LINE OF STORMS PUSHING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. NAM/WRF MODEL RUNS SHOW SOMETHING MOVING INTO
THE AREA SO STARTED A TREND FOR TIMING OF TSRA. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
IF TSRA ARE DISSIPATING AND IF THEY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA. THINK STILL PRUDENT TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TYPE
OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE ADJUSTED WITH
FUTURE TAF UPDATES.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TO POPS AND WEATHER FOR TODAY.
40
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AT MID
MORNING. THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIFFERED TODAY...WITH THE
GFSBUFR DRIER THAN THE NAMBUFR. THE NAMBUFR VERIFIED CLOSER TO THE
UPPER AIR SITES...HOWEVER BOTH INDICATED DRIER CONDITIONS AND LESS
CAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THAN TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID
NOTE THAT THE HRRR WAS VERIFYING AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY AS WELL.
MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD START NEAR THE COAST AND MOVE INLAND AS THE
SEABREEZE COMBINES WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW. THE NAM
SHEARS OUT THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TODAY...WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND COASTAL AREAS.
WITH THAT IN MIND...THE ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TWEAK THE POPS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES. KEPT THE 30
PERCENT POPS IN PLACE. ALSO KEPT THE 10 PERCENT POPS FROM HOUSTON
COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO THE CLL AREA.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 95 74 95 76 / 20 30 30 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 77 94 75 94 76 / 20 40 20 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 90 81 91 82 / 10 40 30 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1016 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO POPS AND WEATHER FOR TODAY.
40
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AT MID
MORNING. THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIFFERED TODAY...WITH THE
GFSBUFR DRIER THAN THE NAMBUFR. THE NAMBUFR VERIFIED CLOSER TO THE
UPPER AIR SITES...HOWEVER BOTH INDICATED DRIER CONDITIONS AND LESS
CAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THAN TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID
NOTE THAT THE HRRR WAS VERIFYING AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY AS WELL.
MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD START NEAR THE COAST AND MOVE INLAND AS THE
SEABREEZE COMBINES WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW. THE NAM
SHEARS OUT THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TODAY...WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND COASTAL AREAS.
WITH THAT IN MIND...THE ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TWEAK THE POPS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES. KEPT THE 30
PERCENT POPS IN PLACE. ALSO KEPT THE 10 PERCENT POPS FROM HOUSTON
COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO THE CLL AREA.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
AREA. HIGH RES MODELS ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH 4KM
NCEP WRF SHOWING A BIT MORE THUNDER.
BY 10Z TUESDAY MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HEADING TO THE SOUTH AND APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DUE TO
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF WACO.
HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS BAND FIZZLING AS IT APPROACHES
THE COAST. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN
OUR AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE BAND MAKES
IT. FOR NOW HAVE PUT A PROB 30 IN AND WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW DOWN
TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP IN FUTURE TAF PACKAGES. 23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER UTAH AND TROUGH NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH A WEAKNESS EXTENDING FROM NEAR LITTLE ROCK TO
HOUSTON. YESTERDAYS GULF CIRCULATION HAS MOVED INTO SE TX AND IS
GETTING STRETCHED. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING. PW DOWN TO 1.8" AT GLS AND IN LINE WITH MODEL PROGS OF
THE MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE MODEL SOUNDING AM
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE. CIN NON-
EXISTENT WITH CAPE OF 800-1500 J/KG AND K INDEX AROUND 32. 850
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TONIGHT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD PUSH THE
COLD FRONT INTO NE TX TUESDAY AND MAY REACH FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF SE TX OR MORE LIKELY OUTFLOW FROM STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WET PERIOD TAKES SHAPE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
FRONT HANGS UP IN THE NORTH PORTIONS OF SE TX OR NE TX WEDNESDAY
AND SERIES OF S/W DROPPING SE WILL KEEP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACTIVE AND RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEK. LATE
THU/EARLY FRI LLJ FORMS OVER SE TX IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER S/W
APPROACHING AND MIGHT BE THE KEY TO HEAVIER RAINS. DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT A SPECIFIC DAY AS MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL LIKELY DOMINATE
WHERE THE RAINS SET UP EACH DAY BUT WITH MOISTURE
POOLING/PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT/LIFT HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS UP ON
POPS BUT IT WOULD NOT BE A SHOCK TO SEE MUCH HIGHER POPS NEEDED BY
MID WEEK AS CONFIDENCE IN BOUNDARIES GROWS AND MESOSCALE MODELS
NARROW IN ON THE LOCATION.
UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD THIS COMING WEEKEND ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AND NM. ULTIMATELY HITTING 597-600DM BY NEXT TUESDAY (07/22) WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO A HOT SPELL FOR SE TX.
MARINE...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WATERS TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN THE MORNING UNTIL THE SEA BREEZE BEGINS TO
MOVE INLAND PUTTING AN END TO RAIN OVER THE WATERS. A WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE DOWN FROM NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AND STALL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER... GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHWARDS. AS OF NOW THIS BAND OF
RAIN LOOKS TO FIZZLE BEFORE MAKING TO THE WATERS. MARINE INTERESTS
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IF YOU HAVE PLANS TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO START TO TIGHTEN TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS
TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WAVE HEIGHTS
COULD BE UP IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE. 23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 98 75 95 74 95 / 10 20 30 30 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 97 77 94 75 94 / 30 20 40 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 91 80 90 81 91 / 20 10 40 30 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1033 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER LAKE HURON. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ARE SPINNING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...INCLUDING ONE WAVE THAT IS
DROPPING SOUTH OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WAUTOMA TO DOOR COUNTY. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
THE UPPER PENINSULA SO WILL DROP PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING UPSTREAM...DRIER AIR IS PUNCHING SOUTH OVER
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT CLOUD COVER
LOOKS ROBUST OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FORECAST
CONCERNS INCLUDE SHOWER AND CLOUD TRENDS IN THIS PERIOD.
TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION WILL DROP
SE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER PENINSULA. MUCH OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS BY
MID-EVENING. CLOUDS LOOK TO TAKE A BIT LONGER HOWEVER...DUE TO
CYCLONIC FLOW...THERMAL TROUGHING...AND NORTH WINDS ORIGINATING FROM
A MOISTURE RICH AREA OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS KEEP LOW CLOUDS AROUND OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING TREND OVER THE EAST
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLEARING SHOULD PUSH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING THOUGH AS DRY AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS LOST. THE COMBO OF CLEARING SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL BE WARMER DUE
TO CLOUDS AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DESPITE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND MODERATING LOW LEVEL TEMPS...LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD CU FIELD
TO FORM BY LATE IN THE MORNING. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER.
MID-LEVEL CAPPING SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS FROM FORMING THOUGH. HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MIDDLE 70S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES ZONAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE JET BUT NONE OF
THEM SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE FACT
THAT THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH HERE YESTERDAY HAS MADE IT
NEARLY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SHUTTING OFF THE
FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TRIES TO
EDGE IT/S WAY INTO WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS JUST ENOUGH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY BUT THERE MIGHT BE A CAP TO KEEP ANY
CONVECTION FROM GOING. THERE MIGHT BE A NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT BUT TOO FAR AWAY TO FORECAST RIGHT
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
ASIDE FROM SCT SHOWERS AFFECTING NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY...DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN AT THE TAF SITES. SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IN
THE 4000-6000 FT AGL RANGE. PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE IN NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO MENTION AT THE RHI TAF SITE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
632 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
AS OF 230 PM...MAIN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER LAKE
HURON...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED BY
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RAP 500 MB HEIGHTS.
PIECES OF ENERGY HAVE BEEN ROTATING THE PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH
TODAY...HELPING TO FUEL ALTOSTRATUS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S...ANOTHER FALL LIKE DAY FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD SLOWLY IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND THE THREAT FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG. SEVERAL POSITIVE
FACTORS GOING FOR THE VALLEY FOG:
1. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH LOWEST 1.5 KILOMETERS
2. RECENT WET CONDITIONS AND PEAK OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
3. COOLER...CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...BECOMING CLEAR THIS EVENING
4. FORECAST T/TD DEPRESSIONS AROUND 5F THIS EVENING
A FEW NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDE TIME OF YEAR /MID JULY NOT AS
FAVORABLE/ AS WELL SOME INDICATIONS THAT WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE MAY STAY ELEVATED AT AROUND 10 KTS. FINALLY...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS TODAY AND QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW QUICKLY WE
CLEAR OUT. REGARDLESS...FEEL THAT CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR A
MS AND WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY FOG EVENT...WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA. PLAN ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND A DRIER AIR MASS. MAX
READINGS LOOK TO BE 5 TO 10F BELOW NORMAL...OR IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AS IT
SLOWLY TRAVERSES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
ARE VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE...AND IN FACT THE
WIND FIELD IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE / LIGHT TO 700 MB /. WHILE THERE
WILL BE A DAY OF DRYING WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH
THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
A RIVER VALLEY FOG EVENT. INCREASED FOG COVERAGE ALONG THE MS AND
WISCONSIN RIVERS...AND THIS COULD BE A CLASSIC FOG EVENT WITH SOME
LONGER PERIODS OF DENSE FOG.
BY FRIDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND
THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW RESPONSE TO BEGIN. HIGHS WILL NUDGE
UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...APPROACHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY WEEKS END.
THE 15.12Z MODEL CYCLE FOLLOWED THE 15.00 GROUP TOWARD A
WARMER...DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS ALLOWS 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB...REACHING +12 TO
+16C...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST...BY THIS WEEKEND. EARLIER RUNS
THAT SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPPING THROUGH THE FLOW ARE NOW
GONE OR WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA...WITH JUST A WEAK
REFLECTION IN THE SURFACE OF A FRONT ATTEMPTING TO PASS BUT NEVER
MAKES IT TO THE AREA. WITH THE WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN LOOKING
MORE LIKELY...CONTINUED THE TREND OF REMOVING OR DIMINISHING
PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND NOW THE WEEKEND IS
DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES
AS WELL GIVEN MORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN POSSIBLE EXCEPTION COMING FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF VALLEY FOG
TOMORROW MORNING AT LSE. WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN FACTOR THAT
WILL MAY KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING NEAR LSE AS SURFACE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY 10-15KT AND LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD STAY IN THAT RANGE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DIUNRAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING TO SEE
HOW THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS DO.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
RECORD COOL HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY/TONIGHT AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
FOR LA CROSSE...
TODAY....FORECAST HIGH 71. RECORD 68 IN 1962
TONIGHT...FORECAST LOW 51. RECORD 49 IN 1912
FOR ROCHESTER...
TODAY....FORECAST HIGH 67. RECORD 67 IN 1962
TONIGHT...FORECAST LOW 50. RECORD 44 IN 1933
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...HALBACH
CLIMATE......AJ/RRS/ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
631 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER LAKE HURON. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ARE SPINNING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...INCLUDING ONE WAVE THAT IS
DROPPING SOUTH OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WAUTOMA TO DOOR COUNTY. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
THE UPPER PENINSULA SO WILL DROP PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING UPSTREAM...DRIER AIR IS PUNCHING SOUTH OVER
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT CLOUD COVER
LOOKS ROBUST OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FORECAST
CONCERNS INCLUDE SHOWER AND CLOUD TRENDS IN THIS PERIOD.
TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION WILL DROP
SE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER PENINSULA. MUCH OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS BY
MID-EVENING. CLOUDS LOOK TO TAKE A BIT LONGER HOWEVER...DUE TO
CYCLONIC FLOW...THERMAL TROUGHING...AND NORTH WINDS ORIGINATING FROM
A MOISTURE RICH AREA OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS KEEP LOW CLOUDS AROUND OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING TREND OVER THE EAST
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLEARING SHOULD PUSH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING THOUGH AS DRY AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS LOST. THE COMBO OF CLEARING SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL BE WARMER DUE
TO CLOUDS AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DESPITE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND MODERATING LOW LEVEL TEMPS...LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD CU FIELD
TO FORM BY LATE IN THE MORNING. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER.
MID-LEVEL CAPPING SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS FROM FORMING THOUGH. HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MIDDLE 70S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES ZONAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE JET BUT NONE OF
THEM SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE FACT
THAT THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH HERE YESTERDAY HAS MADE IT
NEARLY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SHUTTING OFF THE
FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TRIES TO
EDGE IT/S WAY INTO WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS JUST ENOUGH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY BUT THERE MIGHT BE A CAP TO KEEP ANY
CONVECTION FROM GOING. THERE MIGHT BE A NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT BUT TOO FAR AWAY TO FORECAST RIGHT
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
ISOLD SHOWERS WILL EXIT EAST CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS EVG...SO WILL
NOT MENTION ANY PCPN AT THE TAF SITES. SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CIGS GENERALLY
IN THE 4000-6000 FT AGL RANGE. PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE RHI TAF SITE RIGHT NOW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
255 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...SHOWER
CHANCES TUESDAY...AND VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS OF 3 PM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RAP 500 MB HEIGHTS
SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVING INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE STRONG COOLING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE DAYTIME
HEATING WAS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.
TEMPERATURES WERE HELD IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH A STEADY NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH. CERTAINLY THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOME
AREAS TODAY HAS THE LOOK AND FEEL MORE TYPICAL OF OCTOBER
14...NOT JULY 14.
QUICK PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY THIS EVENING AND
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW ANY LINGERING SHOWERS /
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SMALL CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH RESIDES CLOSER TO THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR LARGE STRATUS DECK
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...THAT IS PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GFS/NAM RH FIELDS SHOW THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. DESPITE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES OF -1 TO -2...AND THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MASS / +4 TO
+6C / OVERHEAD...SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER IS
LIKELY TO KEEP READINGS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. PLAN ON LOWS TO VARY A
FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 50.
FOR TUESDAY...LITTLE MODERATION IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP
THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER CONTINUING. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY MOVES INTO MICHIGAN...AND AT THE SURFACE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. COULD
NOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER ALONG AND EAST OF MS RIVER AS
SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED CUMULUS BY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS MORE FAVORABLE. USED BIAS-
CORRECTED GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS COOLER READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SOME OF THE MORE RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
VARY FROM LOW/MID 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS...TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.
INTRODUCED PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MS AND WISCONSIN RIVERS...GIVEN
ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR MASS...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 3 TO 3.5 KM AS
SEEN FROM NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND RECENT WET CONDITIONS.
WHILE MID JULY IS NOT THE FAVORED TIME FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG...FEEL
THAT THE MORE PRONE AREAS ALONG THE MS AND WISCONSIN RIVERS WILL
SEE SOME FOG.
BENIGN WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH MAIN WEATHER FEATURE BEING
THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. PLAN ON SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EACH DAY...LIGHT WINDS...AND A DRIER AIR MASS. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...AND LOWS IN THE
50S. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE 14.12Z GUIDANCE BEGIN BY
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE GFS SWINGS THIS FEATURE THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...MOISTURE TRANSPORT RETURN IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE AND THERE IS A LACK OF INSTABILITY AS WELL. CONSENSUS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY LOOK GOOD AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVER BY THE WEEKEND...THOUGH STILL
REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...OR IN THE LOW
80S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
THE TAF SITES. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING AS
STRATUS PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. PLAN ON MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH BKN-OVC
CEILINGS WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT. ALSO...WINDS
WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 14 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 29 KTS ARE EXPECTED. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING. PLAN ON VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
FOR LA CROSSE...
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 70. RECORD 68 IN 1962
FOR ROCHESTER...
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 67. RECORD 67 IN 1962
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP
CLIMATE......AJ/RRS/ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
838 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
GETTING SOME PRETTY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING UP IN
RIVERTONS AREA THAT ARE DROPPING DOWN INTO OUR CWFA. STILL PRETTY
UNSTABLE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SPC...WE WENT WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 2 AM
WEDNESDAY. UPDATES SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST LARAMIE
COUNTY AND INTO LARIMER COUNTY IN COLORADO. RECEIVED SOME PEA
SIZED HAIL REPORTS SOUTH OF LARAMIE WHEN THESE STORMS MOVED INTO
ALBANY COUNTY EARLIER. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG INTERSTATE 25 STRETCHING FROM CHEYENNE TO
WHEATLAND. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG
THROUGH THE EVENING AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 50-55 KTS. WOULD
LIKE TO SEE THESE STORM CELLS BECOME MORE ISOLATED BEFORE GETTING
TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE SVR THREAT. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AGAIN ACROSS LARAMIE AND ALBANY
COUNTIES AFTER THIS STORM CLUSTER MOVES THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ANY INITIATION OF CELLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO AN UNSTABLE AND SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. WILL KEEP THE SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDS THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING.
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER JET TO THE SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AT SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF QPF
(0.25-0.75 INCHES) ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO LEFT
HEAVY RAIN IN THE FCST. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
MULTICELL STORMS MOVING FROM CONVERSE COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
PLATTE COUNTY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FROM
02-07Z. THE MODELS ARE LIKELY KEYING IN ON AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS COULD
BE SOME MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
SHORTWAVE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z WED. COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION ON WED MORNING SO TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 10-15
DEGREES COOLER. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE A GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER...THE STRONG TO SVR
THREAT WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
ON WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON THURS AFTN. THIS
WILL BE THE START OF A WELCOME BREAK FROM STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
A TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A STRONG UPPER HIGH FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN
EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY THOUGH WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH MAY
HINDER CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL TURN VERY WARM TO
HOT SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 700MB TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND 15-17C ACROSS THE CWA DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 453 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW COULD BRING LOWER CEILINGS TO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...IMPACTING KSNY AND KIBM AS WELL AS HERE AT KCYS.
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONCE
AGAIN
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TO
THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EXIST ON FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AS A
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLAYCOMB
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
346 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
PRETTY QUIET AFTN ACROSS THE CWA WITH MUCH OF THE STORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO. THE AIRMASS IS MORE STABLE TODAY WITH CAPE VALUES
GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG...THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER IN SOUTHWEST LARAMIE COUNTY WHERE CAPES ARE UP TO 1000
J/KG. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND ANY STORMS THAN INITIATE ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS
NORTHERN IDAHO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO WY ON
TUES WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER CARBON COUNTY IN THE AFTN. SFC WINDS
GO SOUTHEASTERLY TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE MORNING
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION. CAPE VALUES ARE
UP TO 1250-1500 BY THE AFTN FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD TO
ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER. BULK SHEAR IS EXCELLENT (50-55 KTS) DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THUS IT IS CONTINUING
TO LOOK LIKE AN ACTIVE SVR DAY IN SOUTHEAST WY AND LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDS. STORMS THAT INITIATE ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE WILL TEND TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OR EVEN TO THE
SOUTH IN THE CASE OF A RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELL. HAVE HIGH POPS (40-50
PERCENT) EXTENDING THROUGH MOST OF TUES NIGHT AS THE AREA WILL
STILL BE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
SHORTWAVE IS STILL OVERHEAD ON WED...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LESS THAN TUES. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON WED
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
COOLED TEMPS ON WED A FEW DEGREES SUCH THAT MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOT
GETTING MUCH ABOVE 70 DEGREES. CAPE VALUES DO NOT REALLY GET ABOVE
750...SO WHILE THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING...THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE REDUCED COMPARED TO
TUES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TIMEFRAME IS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB THIS WEEK...AND WHEN THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT:
THE MODELS ARE STARTING SHOW A FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS SHOWING A VERY SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ON THURSDAY
WITH SOME FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS
NOT AS BULLISH ON THE MOISTURE EXCEPT OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE MAIN
PROBLEM IS LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO LACK OF RETURN
FLOW FROM THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S AND 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. WE FOLLOWED
CLOSEST TO THE ENSEMBLE HIGHS WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE
700MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES WITH DEVIATIONS OF 2 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
FRIDAY-MONDAY:
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS ARE ALL SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVIDENCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS TROF WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TIMING OF THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES
WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL INDUCE GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY WILL BE
DECENT WITH DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE WEST TO EAST. BEYOND
THIS TIMEFRAME...IT APPEARS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
WARMUP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH 700MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO THE
SURGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF ELEVATED LIFT. IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL
MOST LIKELY IMPACT THE BFF AND SNY TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. THE
SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. &&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A WARMUP WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINIMUM AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1216 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND A STRONG JET STREAM DEVELOPING ALOFT.
MOISTURE PROFILES HAVE NOT BEEN A PROBLEM IN THIS PATTERN RECENTLY
WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COLD
FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS DUE TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS
WEEK. BEHIND THIS FRONT...AN ATYPICAL 1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A THERMAL LOW WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...RESULTING IN GOOD UPSLOPE EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE BY
TONIGHT. KEPT A RISK OF WIDELY SCATTERED TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
ALONG AND WEST OF I25 TODAY DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT
ACTING AS A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND DEEP ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE AND
SOME LLVL INSTABILITY. COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT
TODAY DUE TO QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT BETWEEN 15K TO 20K FEET
MSL. HOWEVER...THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS NEAR 90 SOUTH OF RAWLINS.
ON TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND
WYOMING. WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA...COMBINED WITH DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...THERE IS CONCERN OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH FLOODING
BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH ALONG WITH A STRONG JET FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO TAKE ITS TIME
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...SO EXPECTED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS
SHOW RESPECTABLE QPF VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WHERE MANY LOCATIONS DO NOT NEED THE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES DUE TO
AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. IN ADDITION...THE GFS...ECMWF AND
NAM ALL SHOW SIGNIFICANT 0-6KM SHEAR AND EVEN 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF
0-2KM SHEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA.
CONCERN OF SEVERE TSTORMS IS GROWING FOR TUESDAY...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT LIKELY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS ALL MODELS SHOW THE FEATURE REMAINING OVER CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN WYOMING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT TSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE DUE TO COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70
DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
DRY THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING BUT
THAT WOULD BE ABOUT IT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY. FRIDAY
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY BUT UPPER LEVEL JET INCREASING SLIGHTLY
IN STRENGTH AND MODELS HINTING AS WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MAIN CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE PLAINS.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. AGAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BUT THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAYS SHOULD BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO THE
SURGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF ELEVATED LIFT. IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL
MOST LIKELY IMPACT THE BFF AND SNY TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. THE
SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. &&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1049 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR DISTRICT. SOME DRYING OF THE AIR
MASS ALOFT IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THUS A
REDUCTION IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AND AN END TO ANY PRECIP
CHANCES. THE MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE HOWEVER ALONG WITH A MODEST COOLING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...LATEST RADAR IMAGE SHOWS
SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER THE SIERRAS
MOVING WEST TOWARDS ALAMEDA AND CONTRA COSTA COUNTIES. THIS HAS
BEEN PICKED UP WELL BY THE HRRR MODEL. THE MODELS ARE NOT
FORECASTING ANY QPF SO ONLY LIGHT SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED AT MOST.
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUING CHANCE OF
MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE SFO BAY AREA POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT
SPRINKLES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY.
A COOLER AIRMASS ALOFT MOVED OVER THE DISTRICT TODAY AS THE 925 MB
TEMPERATURES COOLED FROM 31 CELSIUS YESTERDAY TO AROUND 24 TODAY.
AS A RESULT MANY NORTH AND EAST BAY INLAND AREAS WERE AS MUCH AS
10-15 DEGREES COOLER. ON THE OTHER HAND LESS CLOUDINESS IN THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR ALLOWED THOSE AREAS TO WARM UP A FEW DEGREES.
AND THE SOUTHEAST FLOW HELPED PUSH TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY AREA AND ADJACENT VALLEYS UP AS MUCH AS 10-15
DEGREES. IT MAY HAVE FELT MUGGIER TODAY AS DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE DISTRICT.
STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST TONIGHT AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY
SWITCHES TO SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL PRETTY MUCH CUT OFF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AFTER WEDNESDAY. MARINE AIR WILL BRING COOLING
AND LESS MUGGINESS TO THE COAST AND THE SFO BAY AREA ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IN THE EXTENDED...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ASIDE FROM THE COASTAL STRATUS...AND COOLER
THAN SEASONAL NORM TEMPS INLAND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AND THEN IT LOOKS LIKE A WARMING TREND FOR NEXT WEEK AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS WESTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA WITH WARMING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. IN THIS REGARD WILL NOTE
THAT LATEST ECMWF RUN ACTUALLY TAKES THE HEIGHT AT ITS CENTER ALL
THE WAY UP TO 601 DM BY 18Z NEXT TUES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:49 PM PDT TUESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. A FEW RETURNS
VISIBLE ON RADAR OVER THE EAST BAY HAVE PRODUCED A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY REPORTS OF SHOWERS OVER AREA
TERMINALS. HOWEVER WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SOUTH OR BECOME
SQUIRRELY ACROSS BAY AREA TERMINALS AS THIS LINES MOVES THROUGH.
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRATUS IS
ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INLAND TONIGHT BRINGING IFR CIGS TO MOST SITES.
A MODERATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BETWEEN 08Z-09Z OVER AREA
TERMINALS. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER KOAK WHILE KSFO EXPERIENCES VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...PATCHY CIGS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY NEAR THE TERMINAL.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO LIFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER AREA
TERMINALS TONIGHT. LIGHT WEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: W BLIER/W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
900 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FROM THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES OVER THE REGION AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO DOUBLE DIGITS OVER THE REGION BY TOMORROW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY /1700
PDT THIS EVENING/...CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP AGAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND PARTS OF INYO AND MONO COUNTIES. WHILE
THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SOUTHEASTERLY...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA CREST INTO THE WFO HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA.
EVEN SO...THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WERE SPARED ANY
CONVECTION TODAY...SO HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS
FROM THIS EVENING.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
DEVILS POST PILE RECEIVED 1.09 INCH OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR...FROM
2114-2214Z /1414-1514 PDT/ THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE WHITE WOLF HAD
0.45 INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOUR FROM 1953-2053Z /1253-1353 PDT/. THE
HEAVY RAINS...AND THE MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE RIM FIRE BURN SCAR...PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING. ALTHOUGH NO FLOODING WAS REPORTED AT THE BURN
SCAR...ROCK AND DEBRIS SLIDES DID CLOSE TIOGA PASS FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
NEW CELLS CONTINUE TO POP UP THIS EVENING...EVEN AFTER SUNSET.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN
THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS...SO HAVE KEPT POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE WARM AIRMASS ALSO MAY ENABLE FRESNO TO TIE ITS RECORD HIGH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY. THE LOW SO FAR AT THE FRESNO-
YOSEMITE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY HAS BEEN 81 DEGREES. IF THIS
STAND THROUGH 08Z /0100 PDT OR 0000 PST/ WEDNESDAY...IT WOULD TIE
THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR JULY 15TH OF 81 DEGREES...SET IN 1984.
/WEATHER DATA ARE RECORDED IN STANDARD TIME TO AVOID THE CLOCK
CHANGES BETWEEN STANDARD AND DAYLIGHT TIME. THUS...RECORDS ARE NOT
SET UNTIL MIDNIGHT STANDARD TIME./
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA UNTIL 06Z WED AND AGAIN AFTER 18Z
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV UPDATE... /ISSUED 416 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
RIM FIRE BURN SCAR HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE BURN AREA. HAVE
THEREFORE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RIM FIRE BURN
SCAR.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 245 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAM INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST SHOW AS MUCH AS 1.75 INCHES OF PRECIP-WATER AT
12 UTC (5 AM PDT). CLIMO VALUES FROM UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS SHOW
THESE VALUES REACHING NEAR THE MAX PRECIP-WATER VALUES FOR MID-
JULY. THEREFORE...THE CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AFFECTED AREAS IS MINIMAL TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SIERRA NEVADA IN AREAS WHERE MESO-SCALE MODELS PLACED IT THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOWING THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE HRRR MODEL AND EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD CLOSER TO YOSEMITE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT
RANGE ENSEMBLE (EVEN STORM SCALE ENSEMBLES) SUPPORT THE TREND OF
SLOWLY SHIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE
BURN AREA OF THE RIM FIRE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS THIS AFTERNOON. CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW
VERY SLOW MOTION WITH THIS AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION WHICH INCREASES
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AROUND THE YOSEMITE AREA.
WHILE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT THE ONGOING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE HRRR 1KM-AGL
REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT ONLY GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE
MODEL DOES NOT TERMINATE CONVECTION THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND
POSSIBILITY CONTINUES IT INTO THE EARLY DAWN HOURS. IN ADDITION...
ECMWF/GFS40 SHOWING ONLY A VERY SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTION /LI-CAPE
WISE/ WITH THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST BECOMING CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
YET...EVEN WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE SURGING THROUGH
THE AREA OBSERVED AND MODEL PRECIP-WATER IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF
AS YUMA SHOWS LOWER VALUES THEN LAS VEGAS. THEREFORE...WHILE
WEDNESDAY MAY BE VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE
LESS COVERAGE OVER THE DISTRICT AS THE BULK OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY SHIFT
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW FOR DIMINISHED THUNDERSTORM THREATS.
WHILE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL EXIST
ON SATURDAY...LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL KEEP IT CONFINED TO
THE HIGH COUNTY OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.
A DEEP TROF IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN TOWARD THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL SHIFT THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND STOP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEK. YET...WITH TROF WILL ALSO ALLOW THE RIDGE
TO AMPLIFY FOR ANOTHER WARMING TREND. AFTER A MINOR COOL DOWN
LATER THIS WEEK...WILL SEE WARMING (AND ABOVE 100 DEG-F) BY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 16 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-15 111:1972 83:1975 81:1984 54:1905
KFAT 07-16 111:1925 83:1958 80:1984 54:1905
KFAT 07-17 114:1925 78:1987 80:1984 56:1987
KBFL 07-15 114:1930 87:2011 85:1917 53:1905
KBFL 07-16 115:1925 84:1958 81:2010 52:1899
KBFL 07-17 114:1925 82:1987 81:2005 53:1905
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DS
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...SANGER
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1146 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS GOVE COUNTY BUT GIVEN
MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EVEN A LITTLE
HEATING THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...HAVE KEPT MINIMAL POPS IN
FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE
SOMEWHERE. HRRR SUPPORTS THIS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT PRECIP INDICATED
THROUGH 00Z. THE HRRR HAS HANDLED TODAYS PRECIP EVOLUTION FAIRLY
WELL.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
THIS EVENING GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE GFS SEEMS TO BLOW
UP A SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THIS EVENING AND HOLD IT TOGETHER
ALL THE WAY INTO SW KANSAS. THAT SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY AND
PREFER THE SREF FOR PRECIP TIMING AND EVOLUTION THIS EVENING.
THINKING BETTER PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT ARE WITH THE WELL-
DEVELOPED UPPER LOW NOW CROSSING MONTANA. THAT FEATURE WILL
GENERATE A DECENT ROUND OF PRECIP BUT LIKELY NOT BEFORE 06Z IN OUR
COUNTIES. AGAIN...WENT BASICALLY WITH AN SREF EVOLUTION OF PRECIP WHICH
BRINGS SHRA/TSRA SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT WITH AN EMPHASIS IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA TOMORROW.
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS THE NEXT 36 HOURS...KEEPING MID 50S
OVERNIGHT GIVEN CLOUD COVER...INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S...AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 60S ON
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
HAVE TRANSITIONED THE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS A RESULT MAINLY OF THE SURFACE WINDS TRANSITIONING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TO A MORE EAST/NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WHICH FAVORS
MORE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
FELT STRONGLY ENOUGH ABOUT THE AVAILABLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VORTICITY MAX AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM 700MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALOFT IN THE SUBSIDENT AREA BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH THE COOL AIRMASS EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S ON
FRIDAY.
EXPECT THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BECOMING WARMER
THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO AN INITIALLY MORE
ZONAL FLOW AND THEN INTO A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION BY TUESDAY.
ALSO EXPECT A TRANSITION INTO A MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN LATE DAY AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE THEREFORE
EITHER HINTED AT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK INCREASE IN POPS
OR HAVE PUT IN ISOLATED OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH LATE DAY TO
OVERNIGHT PERIODS IN DAYS 5 THROUGH 7.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS PERIODS OF LOW STRATUS...RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. CURRENTLY SEEING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70...WITH STORM MOTIONS AND CAPE/CINH FIELDS SUGGESTING
THIS WILL NOT IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SEEING SEVERAL WEAK ECHOES DEVELOP NEAR THE MCK AREA...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z SO WOULD ONLY
EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACT LIGHT SHOWERS UNTIL THEN. STILL A GREAT DEAL
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
KEPT THE GENERAL IDEA OF MORNING PRECIP...AN EARLY AFTERNOON LULL
AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
406 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...AND DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND DRIFTS
NORTH TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES 1003MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN
QB...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
THE PIEDMONT. AS OF 07Z...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS
CREEPING INTO THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES. ALOFT...GOES WV IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE SSW FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST BETWEEN A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US...AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THAT SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS/TSTMS
IMMEDIATELY S OF THE AREA PASSING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE I-95
CORRIDOR THROUGH 7AM...BEFORE MOVING THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY
NOON. THE BOUNDARY DOES HOWEVER STALL IN VICINITY OF THE NE NC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS...THE HIGHEST POPS (50-60%) WILL BE
GENERALLY CONFINED OVER FAR SE PORTIONS TODAY. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NNE AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS.
THE SKY SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME PARTLY SUNNY OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS
MORNING...WITH INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN AREAS BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY BY
AFTERNOON...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVERCAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM LOW 80S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID 80S INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A PLEASANTLY DRY AIRMASS BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE SKY SHOULD BECOME MAINLY
CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON CU.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW...TO THE MID/UPPER
60S FAR SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY LOCATIONS BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. CLOUD COVER COULD BECOME THICKER OVER SE PORTIONS DUE TO
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND LOW PRESSURE
TO THE S. NOT ENOUGH FORCING IS EXPECTED LOCALLY TO WARRANT ANY POP
OVER SE PORTIONS (DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW) THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS FRIDAY ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER
MS VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO GET
PULLED BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND, AND WE WILL
LIKELY SEE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY KICK BACK UP INCREMENTALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE WAVY FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. KEPT A LOW (SLIGHT CHC) POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS INITIAL WAVE PUSHES ACROSS...WITH HIGHER, MORE
WIDESPREAD HIGH END CHC (40%) POP SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS, WITH A SECOND PERIOD OF (MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN) 40-50% POP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS NEXT VORT MAX
PUSHES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SET UP
OFFSHORE, BRINGING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SET UP AND WARMING
TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT MAXIMA TO AVERAGE AROUND -1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND FRI-SUN,
WITH SOME WARMING BACK TOWARDS CLIMO NORMAL MON/TUE. EARLY
MORNING LOWS WILL SETTLE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO LAVMOS WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON BOTH THE IFR
CIGS AT RIC AND CONDS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF
IFR CIGS AT RIC AND MVFR AT ECG.
NAM MOS AS WELL AS MANY OF THE HI RES MODELS DO NOT REFLECT REALITY
WHEN IT COMES TO PCPN COVERAGE WHICH HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY
OVER THE AREA. KEPT TEMPO LIGHT RAIN AT ECG NEXT FOUR
HOURS...ELSEWHERE PCPN SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED. SOME SHOWERS WILL
BE PSBL IN FAR SE ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL EVALUATE WITH THE 12Z TAF.
USED RUC FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT WHICH APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN EARLIER FORECASTS. WINDS TURN TO NW AND N WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND EVENTUALLY FROM THE NE OVER SE PORTIONS.
MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SW WINDS WERE GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SE THROUGH THE WATERS. THERE
WAS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH INFLUENCE VARIOUS
FRONTAL WAVES WILL HAVE ON THE WIND FIELD. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO A
NAM/SREF BLEND AS THE MOS GUIDE HAD TOO MUCH NOISE. BLENDED MOS
GUIDE BACK IN LATER IN THE WEEK AS IT WAS CLOSER TO CONSISTENCY.
MORE SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ENTERS THE PICTURE BEYOND SATURDAY BUT
HELD OFF ON ANY CHANGES THERE.
MODERATE NORTHERLY SURGES ARE INDICATED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS. THESE APPEAR TO REMAIN BLW SCA CRITERIA.
SEAS WERE RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT THIS MORNING WITH LTL CHANGE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MAY BUILD THESE UP ANOTHER FOOT BUT THE EAST WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING IN 5 FOOT SEAS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
219 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS COME TO AN END AND WATCH
NUMBER 423 HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THERE IS ONE LAST AREA OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING NEAR LOUISA/CAROLINE COUNTIES
THAT SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...
MOST AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING JUST RAIN WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. 12 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 2.75 INCHES FOR THIS EVENT (OBSERVATIONS TAKEN
FROM THE MESOWEST DATA NETWORK)...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS VIRGINIA TWD THE COAST
OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALSO HAVE PLENTY OF LIFT DUE
TO BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET WHICH IS LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. ALL THIS COMBINED WITH THE
FRONT MOVING IN AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH WILL
GENERATE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HRRR AND RUC
ARE DOING A GOOD JOB DEPICTING ONE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME
ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPS ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA. MODELS
SHOW ALL THESE THUNDERSTORMS JUST SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE CORFIDI VECTORS ONLY SHOW SLOW PROPAGATION ACROSS THE AREA OF
THESE STORMS. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCATIONS.
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AS MANY AREAS HAVE
BEEN QUITE DRY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AS THIS
COULD BE THE ONE AREA THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD ALSO PULSE UP AND BECOME SEVERE BUT THE BEST SHEAR IS MAINLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER SUNSET THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S
WHICH MATCHES MOSGUIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT
THE SHOWERS TO END DURING THE EARLY MORNING IN THE WEST BUT TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO FINALLY END OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE EAST
WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 80 BUT OUT WEST WHERE THE SUN DOES COME OUT
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. IF CLOUDS LINGER IN THE
WEST THE HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY SOME
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MOST OF THIS MOISTURE TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA SO STILL EXPECT A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY.
FOLLOWED MOSGUIDE WITH HIGHS SLOWLY WARMING FROM THE MID 80S
THURSDAY TO NEAR 90 BY FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 60S POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
50S WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT ALL AREAS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO GET PULLED
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND, AND WE WILL LIKELY
SEE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY KICK BACK UP INCREMENTALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE WAVY FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. KEPT A LOW (SLIGHT CHC) POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS INITIAL WAVE PUSHES ACROSS...WITH HIGHER, MORE
WIDESPREAD HIGH END CHC (40%) POP SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS, WITH A SECOND PERIOD OF (MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN) 40-50% POP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS NEXT VORT MAX
PUSHES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SET UP
OFFSHORE, BRINGING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SET UP AND WARMING
TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT MAXIMA TO AVERAGE AROUND -1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND FRI-SUN,
WITH SOME WARMING BACK TOWARDS CLIMO NORMAL MON/TUE. EARLY
MORNING LOWS WILL SETTLE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO LAVMOS WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON BOTH THE IFR
CIGS AT RIC AND CONDS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF
IFR CIGS AT RIC AND MVFR AT ECG.
NAM MOS AS WELL AS MANY OF THE HI RES MODELS DO NOT REFLECT REALITY
WHEN IT COMES TO PCPN COVERAGE WHICH HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY
OVER THE AREA. KEPT TEMPO LIGHT RAIN AT ECG NEXT FOUR
HOURS...ELSEWHERE PCPN SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED. SOME SHOWERS WILL
BE PSBL IN FAR SE ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL EVALUATE WITH THE 12Z TAF.
USED RUC FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT WHICH APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN EARLIER FORECASTS. WINDS TURN TO NW AND N WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND EVENTUALLY FROM THE NE OVER SE PORTIONS.
MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SCA CRITERIA THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS REMAINING JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN THE BAY
AND SOUND. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN OFFSHORE SFC
HIGH...PREFRONTAL COASTAL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE WATERS, AND COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS TOWARD
12-15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF SCA EPISODE OVER THE BAY WITH WATER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE BAY CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES BUT
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE.
ONSHORE (E-NE) FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK (LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY) AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER
PORTION OF THE 20NM ZONES BUT HELD IT TO 4 FT OR LESS AT THIS
POINT. WINDS TURN AROUND TOWARDS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAB
NEAR TERM...BMD/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1140 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
STORMS ARE STILL ACTIVE ACROSS PARTS OF NEW MEXICO...NAMELY EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTH CENTRAL VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN HIGHLANDS AND PLATEAU REGION WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...LIKELY DECREASING SOME IN
COVERAGE BETWEEN 16/0800 AND 16/1200UTC. ANY STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF DOWNPOURS THAT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY
ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. A LULL IN STORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND THE MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...316 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. RECENT BURN SCARS AND AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE AT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL
STORM ACTIVITY WILL TREND DOWN THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A PWAT VALUE AROUND 1.21 INCHES...WHICH IS
OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINS. RECENT BURN SCARS AS WELL AS AREAS HAVING RECENTLY
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DELAYED INITIATION. THE HRRR AND RUC
DEPICT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE GILA MOUNTAINS AS THE BEST
AREAS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH IS HOLDING
TRUE BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE N
TO S...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH NE NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH AN ATTENDANT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA DUE TO INCREASED
CAPE...SHEAR...AND LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -2 AND -6. THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. LOWERED TEMPS A LITTLE MORE
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS WEDNESDAY
DESPITE SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO NW NM.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TREND DOWN THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RE-CENTERS OVER SOUTHWEST NM.
STORMS WILL BE LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT MAY INCREASE
CHANCES ACROSS THE NE. DRIER AIR UNDERNEATH THE HIGH WILL WORK
INTO WESTERN NM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FURTHER LIMITING STORM
COVERAGE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. WITH THE HIGH MOVING BACK
OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND...BECOMING NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
MODELS HINT FOR A RETURN OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REDEVELOPING THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. BUT STILL LATE IN THE RUNS TO PUT MUCH STOCK IN THAT
OUTLOOK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. ONE
MORE DAY OF WIDESPREAD MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE GRADUAL DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE GOT WORKED OVER BY YESTERDAY/LAST
NIGHTS RAIN. THUS A MORE STABLE START. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A MATURE MCV OR SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY. OTHER AREAS WILL BE SLOW TO
DEVELOP DUE TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS RAIN. NOT EXPECTING NEAR THE COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND STORMS TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL BE PRETTY GOOD WITH HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
THE STAGE IS SET FOR A PRETTY DYNAMIC PERIOD STARTING WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE THAT CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER MONTANA WILL DROP DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A CORRESPONDING SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE UP
WITH THE MAIN WETTING RAIN FOCUS PLACED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AND
PROVIDE A DECENT FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. MORE NOTICEABLE WILL BE THE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND GRADIENT FOUND
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. MODERATELY BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FAIRLY EARLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. A
MORE NORTHERLY COLD FRONTAL PUNCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RECYCLING OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FIRE UP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS THURSDAY AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CELL ACTIVITY WILL BE
MUCH MORE LIMITED ACROSS THE WEST WITH SMALLER FOOTPRINTS OF
MOISTURE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS THAT WILL FILTER
IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING. STILL SEEING SOME
LOCALIZED HAINES 6 VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
AREA. LOW/MID TEEN RH VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAN JUAN
PLATEAU....MUCH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. A FEW
WEST/NORTHWEST RESIDUAL BREEZES ACROSS THE WEST. ANY CELLS THAT DO
FOR SHOULD CONTAIN SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW/DOWNDRAFT WINDS DUE TO THE MID
LEVEL DRYING.
CAN SEE A BRIEF APPEARANCE OF A WESTERLY PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL COME UP BUT EXPECT THAT TO BE
A BRIEF ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES AND DROP HUMIDITY VALUES
ACCORDINGLY. LOOKING AT MORE NUMEROUS TEEN READINGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME BUILDUPS BUT WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINT WOULD BE SMALL IF NOT NONEXISTENT. THIS MEANS A MIX OF
WET/DRY STORMS WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW/DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHWARD AND AFFECT NEW MEXICO/S WEATHER
DURING THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM AND EVENTUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS. HUMIDITY
VALUES SHOULD LOWER AREAWIDE BUT NOT EXPECTING VALUES TO DROP OUT OF
SITE LIKE JUNE READINGS. STILL LOOKING AT SOME HAINES 6 READINGS. AS
THE HEAT PUMP BUILDS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY FLOW BACK
INTO THE UPPER HIGH FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS APPEARS TO BE A
GRADUAL PROCESS BASED ON CURRENT AND PAST MODEL TRENDS. THUS...A
DOWN TREND IN MONSOONAL WETTING RAIN IS INEVITABLE AND EXPECTED FOR
A FEW DAYS.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. RESIDUAL MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS ALSO
IMPACTING A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA. DECIDED TO TAME DOWN TS THREAT
AT MANY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...GUP/FMN/ROW HAVE DECENT CHANCE AT
BEING IMPACTED BY TS OR SH AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE
EVENING. FMN LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LATER BASED ON UPSTREAM
SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS. CARRYING VCSH AT AEG/SAF/ABQ AND TCC
AS A PLACEHOLDER UNTIL DISTINCT PRECIPITATION/CELL TRENDS CAN BE
DISTINGUISHED. PROBABLY IMPACT RG VALLEY LOCATIONS LATER IN THE
DAY. NOT LOOKING AT NEARLY AS MUCH ACTIVITY TONIGHT COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT. FAVORING WESTERN AREAS THOUGH.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
419 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...PROVIDING THE OHIO VALLEY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN ON
FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING SLIGHTLY
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE COLDEST 850MB AIR (PERHAPS AS COLD AS 7C AT ILN)
WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. WITH INSOLATION EXPECTED TO
HELP MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH AT LEAST THAT HIGH...LAPSE
RATES IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE STEEP. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH-RES MODEL RUNS MATCH THIS
ACTIVITY TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE...AS WELL AS A WELL-TIMED (THOUGH
FAIRLY WEAK) SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. POPS
WILL BE KEPT IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE (AND DRY IN THE VERY FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA)...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA IF COVERAGE APPEARS GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A POSSIBILITY. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 00Z.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS OVER TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILN CWA. EVEN THE FREQUENTLY-AGGRESSIVE RAP ONLY
ALLOWS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA.
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE THREE CLIMATE
SITES FOR JULY 16.
CVG...72...1892
CMH...70...1892
DAY...72...1940/1918
OF THESE...DAYTON APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF FAILING
TO REACH THE OLD NUMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THE IMMEDIATE
DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE HIGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS SOON AS FRIDAY. THE PATTERN AND
TIMING OF THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW (AND GULF MOISTURE) IS
BEING HANDLED QUITE INCONSISTENTLY...LEADING TO A FORECAST WITH
LOWER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS SOON AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOW
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING (WHICH WILL STILL
REMAIN QUITE LOW AND NEAR RECORD VALUES). WITH WARMER AIR STARTING
TO MOVE IN ALOFT...MIXING ON THURSDAY SHOULD PRODUCE LESS CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE AS WELL.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT...TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AGAIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY (THOUGH MUCH MORE
BROAD THAN THE SIGNIFICANT MID-WEEK SYSTEM). COMBINED WITH THE
SHIFT IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...SOUTHERN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY CEASE TO BE
SUPPRESSED. MOST OF THE MODELS DEPICT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...AS THIS
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE
ECMWF HAS PERHAPS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS SIGNAL OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT (AND INCREASING MORE DURING DIURNAL TIMING ON
SATURDAY)...AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY FOR THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. DEPICTIONS FROM THE GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN WILDLY VARIABLE
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
THOUGH THE MODELS AGREE ON GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...THE
ACTUAL DEPICTION OF RAW SURFACE TEMP VALUES IS ALSO NOT AS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED AS WOULD BE IDEAL. FIGURING THAT THIS WILL END UP BEING
AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE CHANCES OR CLOUDS ANYWAY (ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY)...A BLENDED APPROACH SHOWING A GRADUAL RISE FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WAS USED IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE A LACK OF MAJOR WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS...AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTER AIR FROM THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. THIS MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION UNDER
COOLER AIR ALOFT. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL LESSEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE
STABLE REGIME.
TEMPERATURES MAY EXHIBIT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMALS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO START MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S ON
FRIDAY...INCREASING TO THE MID 80S BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS
TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME. THE
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOL MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR CONSIDERABLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY. IN ADDITION...ONE OF
THOSE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS SUCH...A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST WITH AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
131 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COOLER...DRIER DAYS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY WHEN
LOW PRESSURE WANDERS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST
THROUGH WV...FIRING UP A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT THAT HAVE
STRUGGLED TO EVEN PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE HRRR HAS
HAD A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THIS PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE DAY SO USED
IT TO GAUGE THE TIMING OF THE LINE.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
SKIES BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
FOR MOST. KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR TODAY
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN KEEPING AWAY MOST OF THE SUN UNTIL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOMORROW...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE AS THERE WAS VARIATION FROM LOW 80S TO LOW
70S. CALMER WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES SHOULD KEEP US A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AND THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
KEEP US COOLER THAN THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE WEAK FLOW...MOIST GROUND...AND CLEARING SKIES...CAN CERTAINLY
EXPECT SOME FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS.
EXPECTING IT TO STAY MOSTLY DRY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS TOMORROW EVENING FOR THOSE IN SE OH AS A VORT MAX
MAKES ITS WAY AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL...NO WHOLESALE CHANGES WERE MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. UPPER
CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTH WITH AXIS EXTENDING S/SW-WARD STILL
LOCATED OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AT 00Z THU WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST WED
EVE AND WED NIGHT...WITH AFOREMENTIONED S/W AXIS PROGGED TO BE
LOCATED JUST NE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THU. AM SOMEWHAT
SKEPTICAL OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWEST WED EVE WITH MEAGER LLVL
MOISTURE...PWATS UNDER AN INCH...AND NO APPARENT SFC OR BL FEATURE
TO ACT AS A TRIGGERING MECH. NONETHELESS...WILL KEEP INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS AS
OPERATIONALLY I CAN/T SAY IT WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTIVE SHOWER TO DEVELOP BEFORE LOSING THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
BUT AS PREV SHIFT MENTIONED...THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY WED EVE OR PERHAPS SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE AT WORST. WILL
BUMP UP SKY COVER JUST A TAD WITH SOME INDICATION OF PERHAPS SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT COVERAGE STILL PROBABLY NOT QUITE
ENOUGH AND LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT OVERNIGHT MINS AS THE S/W AXIS
CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH LESS CLOUD COVER TOWARDS THE DAWN HOURS. THU
MORNING SHOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THIS COOL SNAP...WITH MINS
GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 40S IN THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. EVEN HAVE SOME LOW 40S CODED UP FOR THE USUAL
COOL SPOTS OF RANDOLPH/POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.
THURSDAY WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY. ENOUGH OF A PINCH OF MOISTURE REMAINS
AROUND 850MB TO RESULT IN SOME FLAT-CU UNDERNEATH STABLE CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AT 800MB...STILL ALL IN ALL SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
FOR ALL. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING MAX TEMPS...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE AT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER
FLOW BACKS TO SW AS A POTENT S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER/MID
MISS VALLEY. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING THE USUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND PARTICULARLY INTO FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE WHOLE WILL BE AROUND 5-7 DEGREES WARMER
VERSUS WED NIGHT WITH READING MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF THE S/W TROUGH TO OUR SW
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY. 925MB AND
850MB TEMPS WOULD INDICATE WARMER MAX TEMP POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY BUT
THINKING THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM FULL HEATING
POTENTIAL...STILL EXPECTING TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AS WELL BY AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
PARTICULARLY HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES
AND ALONG THE EAST/SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS BY THE 21Z FRI-00Z SAT
TIME FRAME. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO RAMP UP WITH THE CAP
AROUND 700MB SO HAVE LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AND THEN REMAIN NEARBY THOUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...PATCHY MVFR/IFR
FOG IS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY AFTER 08Z...IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z...WITH A RETURN TO
VFR AREA WIDE WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 03-06Z
THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT
MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 07/16/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H M M M M M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M L H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/50/LS
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...SL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
537 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY...THEN OFF THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND. A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW MAY DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST OF LANCASTER CO AS OF 08Z...BRINGING AN
END TO THE THREAT OF LINGERING SHRA. FURTHER WEST...CLEARING
SKIES...A CALM WIND AND WET GROUND HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY VALLEY
FOG. 11-3.9U SATL IMAGERY INDICATES THE MOST EXTENSIVE FOG IS IN
THE DEEP VALLEYS NORTH OF I-80. RAP AND NAMPARA BOTH INDICATE FOG
WILL BURN OFF IN ALL AREAS BY 12Z-13Z.
IR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LAKE EFFECT PLUMES COMING OFF OF
WESTERN LK ERIE...THE RESULT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR FLOWING
OVR WARM LAKE WATER. A FEW SHRA ALREADY NOTED EAST OF THE LK ERIE
SHORE AND PASSAGE OF POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD SUSTAIN THIS LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO THE LATE AM.
COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER TROF...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AMT OF CU ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATER
TODAY...WITH A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RTS
PROGGED CLOSE TO 7C/KM THIS AFTN OVR THE NW MTNS. ELSEWHERE...DRY
SLOT AND ASSOC NEGATIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WILL LIE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...SUPPORTING MSUNNY SKIES.
THE LARGEST NEGATIVE 925/850 TEMPS ANOMALIES IN GEFS DATA ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE M/U60S
EXPECTED. READINGS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SWING THRU THE REGION TONIGHT...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN PA EVEN
AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT FCST DRY FOR NOW.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE STATE TONIGHT...PROVIDING
FAVORABLE CONDS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DRY AIR AND A CALM WIND
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE INTO THE L/M40S ACROSS THE NORMAL
COOLS SPOTS OVR THE NW MTNS. THIS SCENARIO ALSO SUPPORTS LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES...WHERE
RIVER/STREAM WATER TEMPS ARE RUNNING IN THE 70S.
THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE A MSUNNY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER...UPPER
TROF AND ASSOC COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A FAIR AMT OF DIURNAL
CU. MDL SFC-700MB LAPSE RATES BECOME IMPRESSIVE BY AFTN AND CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHRA THRU EARLY AFTN OVR THE N MTNS. HOWEVER...BY
LATE AFTN...LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF TROF AXIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS CONVECTION. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS NEAR 12C SHOULD
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS FROM THE L70S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO
ARND 80F ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IDEAL CONDS FOR RAD COOLING THU NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...ALONG
WITH NEG PWAT ANOMALIES AND CLEAR SKIES. THE NORMALLY COOLER
VALLEYS OF THE NW MTNS COULD MAKE A RUN AT 40F.
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN OF
RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FRI-TUE WITH SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF
LOW OVR THE MISS VALLEY BECOMING DETACHED FROM MAIN BRANCH OF JET...THEN
SLOWLY DRIFTING NE TOWARD PA. EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN...BUT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHC OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION APPEARS PRUDENT SAT-TUE BASED ON GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BTW UPPER TROF TO THE WEST AND
UPPER RIDGE PARKED OFF THE SE COAST WILL DRAW INCREASINGLY WARM
AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA...SO HAVE SLOWLY RAMPED TEMPS UPWARD
TOWARD NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL TAB UPDATES SINCE 7 PM. SMALL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR MDT AND LNS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
RATHER DEEP UPPER LVL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT
NE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLDS...EXPECT WINDS TO BE WEAK
ENOUGH FOR SOME FOG...GIVEN HOW WET IT HAS BEEN THIS
SUMMER. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF...SO WILL THE TEMPS.
FOR WED...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW
AT BFD. STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THU...AS THE UPPER
LVL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
SE FLOW MAY BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO CENTRAL PA
FOR THE PERIOD LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...AM FOG...SCT AFT SHOWERS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1151 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
AS OF 230 PM...MAIN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER LAKE
HURON...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED BY
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RAP 500 MB HEIGHTS.
PIECES OF ENERGY HAVE BEEN ROTATING THE PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH
TODAY...HELPING TO FUEL ALTOSTRATUS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S...ANOTHER FALL LIKE DAY FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD SLOWLY IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND THE THREAT FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG. SEVERAL POSITIVE
FACTORS GOING FOR THE VALLEY FOG:
1. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH LOWEST 1.5 KILOMETERS
2. RECENT WET CONDITIONS AND PEAK OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
3. COOLER...CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...BECOMING CLEAR THIS EVENING
4. FORECAST T/TD DEPRESSIONS AROUND 5F THIS EVENING
A FEW NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDE TIME OF YEAR /MID JULY NOT AS
FAVORABLE/ AS WELL SOME INDICATIONS THAT WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE MAY STAY ELEVATED AT AROUND 10 KTS. FINALLY...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS TODAY AND QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW QUICKLY WE
CLEAR OUT. REGARDLESS...FEEL THAT CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR A
MS AND WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY FOG EVENT...WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA. PLAN ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND A DRIER AIR MASS. MAX
READINGS LOOK TO BE 5 TO 10F BELOW NORMAL...OR IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AS IT
SLOWLY TRAVERSES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
ARE VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE...AND IN FACT THE
WIND FIELD IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE / LIGHT TO 700 MB /. WHILE THERE
WILL BE A DAY OF DRYING WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH
THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
A RIVER VALLEY FOG EVENT. INCREASED FOG COVERAGE ALONG THE MS AND
WISCONSIN RIVERS...AND THIS COULD BE A CLASSIC FOG EVENT WITH SOME
LONGER PERIODS OF DENSE FOG.
BY FRIDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND
THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW RESPONSE TO BEGIN. HIGHS WILL NUDGE
UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...APPROACHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY WEEKS END.
THE 15.12Z MODEL CYCLE FOLLOWED THE 15.00 GROUP TOWARD A
WARMER...DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS ALLOWS 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB...REACHING +12 TO
+16C...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST...BY THIS WEEKEND. EARLIER RUNS
THAT SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPPING THROUGH THE FLOW ARE NOW
GONE OR WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA...WITH JUST A WEAK
REFLECTION IN THE SURFACE OF A FRONT ATTEMPTING TO PASS BUT NEVER
MAKES IT TO THE AREA. WITH THE WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN LOOKING
MORE LIKELY...CONTINUED THE TREND OF REMOVING OR DIMINISHING
PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND NOW THE WEEKEND IS
DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES
AS WELL GIVEN MORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
THE ONLY CONCERN AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF VALLEY
FOG AT LSE OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WITH JUST SOME PATCHY
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT AND APPEAR LIGHTER THAN WHAT THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING. TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE
STILL KIND OF FAR APART WITH IT BEING 8F AT 3Z. WITH OTHER LOW
LYING SPOTS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF FOG WITH OBS SHOWING
2-3SM...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT SOME VALLEY FOG WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ADDED A BRIEF PERIOD INTO THE TAFS AT LSE FOR
BETWEEN 11-13Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CUMULUS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
RECORD COOL HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY/TONIGHT AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
FOR LA CROSSE...
TODAY....FORECAST HIGH 71. RECORD 68 IN 1962
TONIGHT...FORECAST LOW 51. RECORD 49 IN 1912
FOR ROCHESTER...
TODAY....FORECAST HIGH 67. RECORD 67 IN 1962
TONIGHT...FORECAST LOW 50. RECORD 44 IN 1933
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...HALBACH
CLIMATE......AJ/RRS/ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1056 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
GETTING SOME PRETTY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING UP IN
RIVERTONS AREA THAT ARE DROPPING DOWN INTO OUR CWFA. STILL PRETTY
UNSTABLE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SPC...WE WENT WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 2 AM
WEDNESDAY. UPDATES SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST LARAMIE
COUNTY AND INTO LARIMER COUNTY IN COLORADO. RECEIVED SOME PEA
SIZED HAIL REPORTS SOUTH OF LARAMIE WHEN THESE STORMS MOVED INTO
ALBANY COUNTY EARLIER. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG INTERSTATE 25 STRETCHING FROM CHEYENNE TO
WHEATLAND. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG
THROUGH THE EVENING AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 50-55 KTS. WOULD
LIKE TO SEE THESE STORM CELLS BECOME MORE ISOLATED BEFORE GETTING
TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE SVR THREAT. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AGAIN ACROSS LARAMIE AND ALBANY
COUNTIES AFTER THIS STORM CLUSTER MOVES THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ANY INITIATION OF CELLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO AN UNSTABLE AND SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. WILL KEEP THE SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDS THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING.
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER JET TO THE SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AT SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF QPF
(0.25-0.75 INCHES) ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO LEFT
HEAVY RAIN IN THE FCST. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
MULTICELL STORMS MOVING FROM CONVERSE COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
PLATTE COUNTY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FROM
02-07Z. THE MODELS ARE LIKELY KEYING IN ON AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS COULD
BE SOME MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
SHORTWAVE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z WED. COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION ON WED MORNING SO TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 10-15
DEGREES COOLER. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE A GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER...THE STRONG TO SVR
THREAT WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
ON WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON THURS AFTN. THIS
WILL BE THE START OF A WELCOME BREAK FROM STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
A TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A STRONG UPPER HIGH FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN
EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY THOUGH WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH MAY
HINDER CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL TURN VERY WARM TO
HOT SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 700MB TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND 15-17C ACROSS THE CWA DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW COULD BRING LOWER CEILINGS TO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...IMPACTING KSNY AND KIBM AS WELL AS HERE AT KCYS.
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONCE
AGAIN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TO
THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EXIST ON FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AS A
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLAYCOMB
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
450 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO PORTIONS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL
JULY WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE MARINE INFLUENCE RETURNS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:25 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AREA THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE LACK OF DECENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OVER THE REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF AT TIMES
OVER THE REGION. HAVING SAID THAT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
WHILE THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SHIFT NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT OF AN INCREASE IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL
CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CANNOT RULE OUT THE RETURN
OF TYPICAL "JUNE GLOOM" CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST WHILE INLAND
AREAS CLEAR OUT AND WARM UP EACH AFTERNOON. BY LATE WEEK...A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL KEEP A DRIER
AIR MASS OVER OUR REGION AND MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA REMAINS
BETWEEN TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND A DEEPENING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:49 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE IS
STREAMING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING MAKING IT DIFFICULT
TO ANALYZE LOW CLOUDS WITH SATELLITE DATA. DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING
ON THE HIGH SIDE AROUND 16 DEGREES CELSIUS AND TPW VALUES ARE
QUITE HIGH AROUND 1.44 INCHES. THIS MEANS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD BASES AT APPROXIMATELY 1500
FEET IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND 600 TO 1000 FEET IN THE
MONTEREY AREA. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES IN PLACE STRATUS
WILL BE STUBBORN TO BURN OFF IN MONTEREY BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS BKN012 ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
FORM SHORTLY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY AROUND 1600Z. VFR IS
ANTICIPATED AFTER 1600Z LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL
THIS MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR AT KMRY AROUND 1800Z AND 1900Z AT
KSNS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:25 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. GENTLE SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT
WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SATURDAY
EVENING OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 11 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
436 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO PORTIONS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL
JULY WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE MARINE INFLUENCE RETURNS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:25 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AREA THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE LACK OF DECENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OVER THE REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF AT TIMES
OVER THE REGION. HAVING SAID THAT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
WHILE THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SHIFT NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT OF AN INCREASE IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL
CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CANNOT RULE OUT THE RETURN
OF TYPICAL "JUNE GLOOM" CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST WHILE INLAND
AREAS CLEAR OUT AND WARM UP EACH AFTERNOON. BY LATE WEEK...A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL KEEP A DRIER
AIR MASS OVER OUR REGION AND MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA REMAINS
BETWEEN TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND A DEEPENING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:49 PM PDT TUESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. A FEW RETURNS
VISIBLE ON RADAR OVER THE EAST BAY HAVE PRODUCED A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY REPORTS OF SHOWERS OVER AREA
TERMINALS. HOWEVER WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SOUTH OR BECOME
SQUIRRELY ACROSS BAY AREA TERMINALS AS THIS LINES MOVES THROUGH.
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRATUS IS
ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INLAND TONIGHT BRINGING IFR CIGS TO MOST SITES.
A MODERATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BETWEEN 08Z-09Z OVER AREA
TERMINALS. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER KOAK WHILE KSFO EXPERIENCES VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...PATCHY CIGS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY NEAR THE TERMINAL.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO LIFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER AREA
TERMINALS TONIGHT. LIGHT WEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:25 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. GENTLE SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT
WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SATURDAY
EVENING OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 11 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1111 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED. COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN
SUFFOLK AND SOUTHEASTERN CT AS DEFINED BY WIND SHIFT AND LOWERING
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM. SHOWERS NOW CONFINED TO LONG
ISLAND AND CT. CONVECTION IS PASSING SOUTHEAST OF KMTP.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE BASIC ELEMENTS BEING UPDATED
BASED ON TRENDS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR RUNS. ONE LARGE CHANGE WAS
MADE TO THE WINDS. RAP AND HRRR INDICATE A SEA BREEZE. AFTER THIS
NORTHERLY SURGE THAT MOVES THE FRONT TO THE EAST...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BECOMES WEAK AS SEEM BY THE CURRENTLY CALM WINDS OVER THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THUS...EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING FOR A SEA BREEZE
TO DEVELOP.
AS FOR PCPN...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF AN ISOLATED TSTMS...THOUGH THINK
THIS THREAT IS VERY LOW DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY ALOFT. WILL
LIKELY REMOVE THIS WITH THE 1 PM UPDATE.
THERE`S A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE AIR MASS
GRADUALLY DRYING OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ON THE TAILS OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STATES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE JUST BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S AT
THE COAST. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK THERMAL TROUGH FRIDAY AFTN COMBINING WITH PASSAGE OF
WEAK VORT MAX COULD WORK TO TRIGGER AN ISO SHOWER OVER INTERIOR
REGIONS WITH WEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LIMITING
MOISTURE COULD ASSIST IN KEEPING THINGS DRY...AND THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THE
UPPER FLOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH THE RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
PUSHES EAST WARRANTS THE CONTINUING MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC PCPN SAT
AFTN/EVENING. MEANWHILE...AS THE HIGH LOSES ITS HOLD ON THE
NORTHEAST...WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND
GRADUALLY NUDGES TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...00Z MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE IN KEEPING THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE FROM THE REGION SO THE ACTUAL IMPACT OF THE LOW LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL TO THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED CHC
POPS FOR NOW WITH DECENT FORCING ALOFT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVES
POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. HOWEVER...IF THIS
MODEL TREND CONTINUES...COULD VERY WELL END UP SEEING A DRY WEEKEND
WITH THE PCPN HOLDING OFF INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS HOVER RIGHT AROUND NORMAL HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
COASTAL AREAS POTENTIALLY REMAINING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
VFR...EXCEPT KISP/KGON MAINLY MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
N WINDS NEAR 10 KT SUBSIDE EARLY THIS AFTN. LOOKS LIKE SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP MID-AFTN.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: -SHRA AND MVFR COULD LAST THROUGH 17Z. TIMING
OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR...HOWEVER MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
SHRA/TSTM WEST OF A LINE FROM WESTERN CT TO CENTRAL LONG ISLAND.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS LONGER
INTO THIS EVENING...FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN RIGHT
AROUND 5 FT WITH A SLY WIND WAVE. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS BY FRIDAY WILL KEEP SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...COULD
SEE INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE EAST OF NYC
TODAY WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE
THE MOST LIKELY TYPE OF FLOODING...HOWEVER SMALL STREAM FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
BEYOND THIS EVENT...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/DW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MET
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE/DW
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1025 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED THE HOURLY POP GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES
MODEL DATA...THE WRF NMM...ARW...AND HRRR ALL SHOW A SIMILAR TREND
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/FEW T-STORMS S OF I-10 THIS MORNING...DECREASING
IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A BAND OF T-STORMS DEVELOPS ALONG
BOUNDARY OVER SRN GA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWING THIS TREND IN HOURLY
POPS...WITH BAND OF LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SRN GA
INTO THE JAX AREA. CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN MID
80S FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY VCINITY OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLC
WATERS OF SE GA/NE FL WITH SEAS IN THE 2-5 FT RANGE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAIN THREAT STILL OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS/LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL
KEEP SCEC HEADLINES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. MODEL DIFFS START TO
APPEAR ON THURSDAY AS NAM TRIES TO DEVELOP LOW OFFSHORE WITH DECENT
NE WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS DEVELOPING WHILE GFS HAS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE LAND AREAS AND WEAK FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
ALTHOUGH THE NAM LOW IS AN OUTLIER WE DID NOT WANT TO DISCOUNT IT
COMPLETELY. WE BLENDED SOME OF THE NAM IN WITH THE GFS TO COME UP
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FOR NOW.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 86 67 92 66 / 60 50 10 0
SSI 85 74 89 76 / 60 60 10 0
JAX 86 71 91 70 / 70 60 20 10
SGJ 85 74 88 75 / 80 50 20 10
GNV 85 71 91 69 / 100 40 10 10
OCF 85 72 91 71 / 90 50 20 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WOLF/SANDRIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
952 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.UPDATE...
RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTING EASTWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PARKED OVER
THE EASTERN STATES THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SSW FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAVE GENERATED A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NNERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE FEATURES AND GENERALLY INDICATE THE
WET PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID-WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE. OUTSIDE OF A FEW REPORTS OF WATERSPOUTS AND HEAVY SHOWERS
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS...CONDITIONS HAVE
REMAINED FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH AND DAYTIME HEATING/PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER WET AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THE
MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT MIAMI REFLECTS THIS POTENTIAL AND
SHOWS A MOIST PROFILE WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING AROUND THE 2"
MARK AND MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS WESTERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY SETTING UP AND
FOCUSING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA AND TOWARD THE
EAST COAST ONCE AGAIN. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SHOWED SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO TRIGGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THESE
EASTERN AREAS AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WSW LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY MAY YIELD THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FURTHER
EASTWARD TOWARD AND COAST AND ACROSS THE METRO LOCATIONS THROUGH
THIS TIME TODAY. CONSIDERING THE ACTIVITY OVER THESE AREAS IN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...FLOODING COULD QUICKLY BE REALIZED OVER THE
MORE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS TODAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST PACKAGE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
85/AG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014/
AVIATION...
THE WESTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAY. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND. SOME DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR NEAR THE
KEYS IS ALSO FORECAST TO PUSH NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION...WHICH COULD MAKE IT LESS ACTIVE OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND NEAR KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION AND MOVE ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS. PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 17-19Z FOR THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES WHEN THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP...BUT
STORMS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS 15-16Z. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO WIND DOWN
BY THE EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE HAS NOW ESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND WILL REMAIN IN THAT POSITION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DISPLACEMENT
OF THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY BUT
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH LIFTING OUT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY WILL MAINTAIN THE SOUTHERN POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE STILL NOT LOOKING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH MEAGER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE SURFACE
DIABATIC HEATING IS AT ITS MAXIMUM CANNOT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO
STORMS BECOMING STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND. BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER IN THEIR
EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
HOWEVER, THEY STILL SHOW THE RIDGE INCHING ITS WAY BACK TO THE
NORTH. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY WITH THE STEERING FLOW VERY WEAK WITH
SEA BREEZE DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL REVERTING TO THE INTERIOR AND THE
WEST COAST.
MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 76 91 76 / 70 40 60 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 79 92 78 / 70 40 50 30
MIAMI 89 78 92 78 / 60 30 50 20
NAPLES 90 76 90 77 / 40 20 50 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1022 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND WILL
BE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING FURTHER DRYING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE IMAGERY AT 14Z SHOWS INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE CWA AND WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM OGB TO AGS.
FRONT SHOULD BE TROUGH THE CWA BY NOON. DRYING IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WITH A LARGE WEST TO EAST PW GRADIENT...LESS THAN 0.9
INCHES IN THE FAR UPSTATE TO OVER 2.00 INCHES ALONG THE COAST.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL CAPPING. THE 00Z
SPC WRF AND 07Z HRRR DISPLAY JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE. ALL OF THE
NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. WE MAINTAINED THE
VERY LOW POPS MAINLY IN THE EAST PART CLOSER TO THE DEEPER
MOISTURE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OFFSHORE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND MID-LEVEL CAPPING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS ARE LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. WE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE H5 TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE THE REMNANTS
OF THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
POPS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT
POPS MAINLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED DRYING WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
741 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT LINGERING IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING FURTHER DRYING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT LINGERING IN THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
CHANCE APPEARS LOW. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT INDICATING DRYING
BEHIND A LEAD MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL CAPPING. THE 00Z SPC WRF
AND 07Z HRRR DISPLAY JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE. ALL OF THE NAM AND
GFS MOS HAVE POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. WE MAINTAINED THE VERY LOW
POPS MAINLY IN THE EAST PART CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OFFSHORE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND MID-LEVEL CAPPING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS ARE LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. WE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE H5 TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE THE REMNANTS
OF THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
POPS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT
POPS MAINLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA EARLY
THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. FOG THREAT IS NOT AN ISSUE
THIS MORNING DUE TO CLOUDS...BUT SOME MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR STRATUS MAY
LINGER UNTIL AROUND 14Z. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES AFTER 14Z. EXPECT CONTINUED DRYING WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
610 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT LINGERING IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING FURTHER DRYING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT LINGERING IN THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
CHANCE APPEARS LOW. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT INDICATING DRYING
BEHIND A LEAD MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL CAPPING. THE 00Z SPC WRF
AND 07Z HRRR DISPLAY JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE. ALL OF THE NAM AND
GFS MOS HAVE POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. WE MAINTAINED THE VERY LOW
POPS MAINLY IN THE EAST PART CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OFFSHORE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND MID-LEVEL CAPPING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS ARE LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. WE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE H5 TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE THE REMNANTS
OF THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
POPS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT
POPS MAINLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA EARLY
THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. FOG THREAT IS NOT AN ISSUE
THIS MORNING DUE TO CLOUDS...BUT SOME MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR STRATUS MAY
LINGER UNTIL AROUND 14Z. AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES AFTER 14Z. EXPECT CONTINUED DRYING WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1014 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1009 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014
Starting to see diurnal cumulus developing over the last 15-30
minutes as expected. Based on the RAP layer humidity plots and the
fact that the core of the colder air has shifted to the northeast,
am thinking that the cumulus will not be as widespread as
yesterday, so have made some downward adjustments to the cloud
cover to indicate some more sunshine. Had to make some adjustments
to the highs across the western CWA, which has already reached the
70 degree range at 10 am, but the eastern CWA temperatures are
largely on track.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 619 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. CU/SC is
expected to develop again today. At SPI and DEC, and probably PIA, CU
should be scattered, but at BMI and CMI, the CU could be broken at
times. So will have TEMPO groups for these sites around the 18z
time period. Clouds will be diurnal, so should dissipate around
00z at all sites, or a little after at CMI and BMI. Winds will be
northwest, becoming northerly during the day, and then light and
variable tonight.
Auten
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 309 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday
Unseasonably deep upper low currently centered over southwest
Quebec will gradually lose its influence on the weather across
central Illinois over the next couple of days. As upper heights
slowly rise and air mass modification takes place, temperatures
will warm a few degrees each day. Afternoon highs today will only
reach the lower to middle 70s, but will rise to around 80 degrees
by Friday.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday
The warming trend will continue through the extended, with
temperatures returning to the upper 80s to around 90 degrees early
next week. Precipitation chances will remain negligible through the
period. There is still some question about the exact track of an
upper-level short-wave currently evident on water vapor imagery
over eastern Montana. This feature is progged to drop
southeastward into the southern Plains on Thursday, then track
E/NE into the Tennessee River Valley by the end of the week. With
the exception of the outlier NAM, the 00z Jul 18 model suite is in
fairly good agreement with keeping precip associated with this
wave to the S/SE of central Illinois. ECMWF/GEM both brush the far
SE KILX CWA with some precip on Saturday, so have included slight
chance PoPs south of I-70 at that time. This wave is expected to
become nearly stationary across the Ohio/Tennessee River valleys
early next week, with most of the associated precip occurring
along/east of the trough axis across Indiana and Ohio. GFS
splashes QPF across the eastern half of Illinois on both Sunday
and Monday, but think this is overdone and not worth mentioning in
the forecast. After that, upper ridge builds in earnest across the
Southern Rockies, placing the Midwest in a northwesterly flow
pattern. Have added slight chance PoPs to the forecast Tuesday
night into Wednesday, as MCS activity becomes increasingly likely
by the middle of next week.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1108 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE AREA WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF COOL AIR AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FLOATING AROUND AS LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS
FAIRLY LOW THAT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL SEE RAINFALL.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
I UPDATED THE ZONES AND GRIDS TO REFLECT 30 TO 40 PCT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EAST OF US-131 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS BASED ON A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. RUC13 MODEL SOUNDING AT 14Z SHOW
WEAK CAPE... AROUND 150 J/KG ...WITH CLOUD TOP VALUES OF 25,000
FT. THAT IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS. ACTUALLY
IF WE GOT THOSE 25,000 FT CLOUD TOPS WE MAY EVEN SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE -20C HEIGHT IS NEAR 20,000 FT. HOWEVER THE
AIR ABOVE 15,000 IS RATHER DRY SO I DO NOT THINK TO MAY SHOWERS
WILL GET ECHO TOPS THAT HIGH. ALSO OVER TIME THE AIR ABOVE 15,000
DRYS OUT EVEN FARTHER SO BY LATE AFTERNOON IT WOULD BE MORE
UNLIKELY TO HAVE THAT THEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST IS FINE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 803 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW TWO BOUNDARIES: ONE EXTENDING
FROM MARSHALL NORTHWEST TO MUSKEGON...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING
NORTHWEST THROUGH BETON HARBOR INTO LAKE MICHIGAN. BOTH OF THESE
BOUNDARIES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...TOOK SPRINKLES OUT
OF THE FORECAST NORTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES FOR THE REST OF THIS
MORNING. STILL EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE ONLY WEATHER OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE RESIDUAL
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS TODAY. UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE MAIN UPPER LOW
HAS MOVED WELL NE OF THE AREA...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL WAVES HAVE
DROPPED IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF IT OVER THE AREA KEEPING THE CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE. THIS IS BRINGING DOWN A DECK OF CLOUDS INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE PATTERN HAS TRANSITIONED TO WHERE MOST ALL PCPN IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES FLOATING THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT HAVING MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA IS LIMITING THE VERTICAL GROWTH OF ANY UPDRAFT THAT GETS GOING.
THIS LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND ALSO THE INTENSITY.
WE EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE THE LITTLE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP TODAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME
ANTI-CYCLONIC TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ALONG THE MI/IN AND THE
SHORT WAVE NEAR GRAND TRAVERSE BAY THIS A.M. ROTATE TO THE EAST AND
TAKE THE UPPER JET CORE WITH THEM.
THE PERIOD FROM THU THROUGH FRI THEN LOOKS DRY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE WITH WARMING TEMPS. A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER TO JUST A LITTLE FLAT
CU AT WORST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS ALOFT AT H850 WARM
A BIT EACH DAY. H850 TEMPS APPROACH 12C BY FRI AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS APPROACHING 80 BY FRI AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
KEPT OVERALL LOW PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THIS...HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS NOTED
PREVIOUSLY...THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXIST
TUESDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW
FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHEN SIGNIFICANT LARGE
SCALE FORCING IS LACKING AND MESOSCALE EFFECTS TEND TO DOMINATE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
REACHING THE MID 80S BY TUESDAY...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING SHOULD RAPIDLY LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. CIGS THIS MORNING SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
THE FUEL ALTERNATE THRESHOLD OF 2000 FT...WITH PERHAPS A VERY
BRIEF EXCURSION BELOW 2000 FT AT THE LAN AND JXN TERMINALS BEFORE
14Z. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH VFR PREDOMINATING EVEN
IN THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
I DROPPED THE WATER SPOUTS FROM THE FORECAST AS THE WATER SPOUT
NONOGRAM SUGGESTS WE NEED CONVECTIVE DEPTHS NEAR 25,000 FT...
WHICH WE CLEARLY WILL NOT HAVE (SEE UPDATE DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR
DETAILS ON THAT).
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
617 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE RAP AND NAM SHOW NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY TODAY...750MB
CAPE...AND RADAR INDICATES TSTMS ACROSS ERN COLO WHERE THIS
INSTABILITY IS FCST TO BE. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST.
ALSO...WE ARE NOT GETTING NEARLY THE RADAR COVERAGE THE MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST WITH THE QPF. SO A 50-50 BLEND OF RAP-OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN PLACE WHICH LOWERS THE POP BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT FOR
MORE SCATTERED RAIN COVERAGE VS LIKELY IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...RESIDENT MCV ACROSS ERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE SHOULD
DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING PRODUCING REASONABLE RAIN FROM
KAIA-KOGA-KIML. SOME SOLNS LIKE THE GEM AND SREF SPREAD RAIN FARTHER
EAST INTO KLBF BUT THESE MODELS DONT LINE UP WITH THE CURRENT RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE LIES FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
MT BETWEEN KBIL-KMLS AND THIS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTN
AND EVENING FOLLOWING THE SAME COURSE AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM.
HPC OUTLOOKS THE SOUTHWEST FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BUT THE 6 HOUR QPF
THEY PROVIDE AND MODEL BLENDED TOTALS DO NOT APPROACH ANYWHERE NEAR
THE FLOOD GUIDANCE REQUIRED FOR THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. BEST
GUESS ON QPF FOR THE SOUTHWEST IS AROUND AN INCH TOTAL FOR THIS
EVENT.
HIGHS TODAY REMAIN STEADY IN THE MID 60S IN THE RAIN LIKELY AREA
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE DRY NCNTL ZONES.
LOTS OF TRAPPED MOISTURE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD
KEEP SKIES OVERCAST. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 50S. NONE OF THE
MODELS INDICATE FOG BUT THE GUIDANCE SURE DOES AT
KIML-KAIA-KOGA-KSNY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE PV ANOMALY/SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...WILL BE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
HIGH AMOUNTS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL
ENSURE A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE SOME WEAK LIFT WILL BE
PRESENT. BY AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DRY OUT WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. H850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
THOUGH THE DAY...APPROACHING 20C BY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WHERE
CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH ALL LOCATIONS INTO THE 90S FOR
HIGHS BY SUNDAY. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 90S THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING A BIT
WITH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ IS TO KEEP
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SOMEWHERE OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINING MODERATE FROM THE WEST OVER
OUR REGION. A NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...SHOWN IN BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF...IS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH. SOME CONVECTION IS GENERATED BY BOTH MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY POPS THIS FORECAST CYCLE HOWEVER...AS
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE MUCH STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND DRY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL HIGH/LOWER
HEIGHTS DURING THE WEEKEND...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MAY HAVE
TO BE INTRODUCED SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS AS WE HAD INTO NEXT WEEK. THEY INSIST THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AND BUILD/EXPAND NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION...WITH H700 MB TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 16C AND H500 MB TEMPS
NEAR -5C. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND A DRY
FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 61.
TONIGHT...CIGS LOWER TO MVFR ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBY IN FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
603 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE RAP AND NAM SHOW NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY TODAY...750MB
CAPE...AND RADAR INDICATES TSTMS ACROSS ERN COLO WHERE THIS
INSTABILITY IS FCST TO BE. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST.
ALSO...WE ARE NOT GETTING NEARLY THE RADAR COVERAGE THE MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST WITH THE QPF. SO A 50-50 BLEND OF RAP-OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN PLACE WHICH LOWERS THE POP BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT FOR
MORE SCATTERED RAIN COVERAGE VS LIKELY IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...RESIDENT MCV ACROSS ERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE SHOULD
DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING PRODUCING REASONABLE RAIN FROM
KAIA-KOGA-KIML. SOME SOLNS LIKE THE GEM AND SREF SPREAD RAIN FARTHER
EAST INTO KLBF BUT THESE MODELS DONT LINE UP WITH THE CURRENT RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE LIES FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
MT BETWEEN KBIL-KMLS AND THIS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTN
AND EVENING FOLLOWING THE SAME COURSE AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM.
HPC OUTLOOKS THE SOUTHWEST FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BUT THE 6 HOUR QPF
THEY PROVIDE AND MODEL BLENDED TOTALS DO NOT APPROACH ANYWHERE NEAR
THE FLOOD GUIDANCE REQUIRED FOR THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. BEST
GUESS ON QPF FOR THE SOUTHWEST IS AROUND AN INCH TOTAL FOR THIS
EVENT.
HIGHS TODAY REMAIN STEADY IN THE MID 60S IN THE RAIN LIKELY AREA
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE DRY NCNTL ZONES.
LOTS OF TRAPPED MOISTURE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD
KEEP SKIES OVERCAST. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 50S. NONE OF THE
MODELS INDICATE FOG BUT THE GUIDANCE SURE DOES AT
KIML-KAIA-KOGA-KSNY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE PV ANOMALY/SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...WILL BE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
HIGH AMOUNTS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL
ENSURE A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE SOME WEAK LIFT WILL BE
PRESENT. BY AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DRY OUT WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. H850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
THOUGH THE DAY...APPROACHING 20C BY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WHERE
CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH ALL LOCATIONS INTO THE 90S FOR
HIGHS BY SUNDAY. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 90S THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING A BIT
WITH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ IS TO KEEP
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SOMEWHERE OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINING MODERATE FROM THE WEST OVER
OUR REGION. A NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...SHOWN IN BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF...IS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH. SOME CONVECTION IS GENERATED BY BOTH MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY POPS THIS FORECAST CYCLE HOWEVER...AS
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE MUCH STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND DRY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL HIGH/LOWER
HEIGHTS DURING THE WEEKEND...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MAY HAVE
TO BE INTRODUCED SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS AS WE HAD INTO NEXT WEEK. THEY INSIST THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AND BUILD/EXPAND NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION...WITH H700 MB TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 16C AND H500 MB TEMPS
NEAR -5C. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND A DRY
FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH OVERCAST SKIES
EXPECTED AT THE KLBF TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE KLBF
TERMINAL...CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FROM 6000 FT AGL TO 4000 FT
AGL BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP WITH CIGS
DROPPING DOWN TO 2500 FT AGL BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
TO AROUND 4000 FT AGL BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS RAIN COMES TO AN END
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE KVTN TERMINAL...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CIGS RANGING FROM 10000 TO 20000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND MAY DROP DOWN TO 6000 FT AGL WEDS AFTN. CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT BY MID EVENING WEDNESDAY. ATTM...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THE KVTN TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
920 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...PROVIDING THE OHIO VALLEY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN ON
FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING SLIGHTLY
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED/MOVED INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES
EARLY THIS MORNING. RAP SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS WELL WITH
CLOUDS REMAINING PERSISTENT IN A CORRIDOR AFFECTING AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE WHITEWATER AND MIAMI VALLEYS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH
HEATING CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ELSEWHERE AS WELL WITH GREATER
COVERAGE IN NORTHERN AREAS. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND
HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A STRONGER GRADIENT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. NEAR TERM MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT CANNOT
DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY. SO HAVE CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THE IMMEDIATE
DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE HIGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS SOON AS FRIDAY. THE PATTERN AND
TIMING OF THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW (AND GULF MOISTURE) IS
BEING HANDLED QUITE INCONSISTENTLY...LEADING TO A FORECAST WITH
LOWER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS SOON AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOW
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING (WHICH WILL STILL
REMAIN QUITE LOW AND NEAR RECORD VALUES). WITH WARMER AIR STARTING
TO MOVE IN ALOFT...MIXING ON THURSDAY SHOULD PRODUCE LESS CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE AS WELL.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT...TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AGAIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY (THOUGH MUCH MORE
BROAD THAN THE SIGNIFICANT MID-WEEK SYSTEM). COMBINED WITH THE
SHIFT IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...SOUTHERN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY CEASE TO BE
SUPPRESSED. MOST OF THE MODELS DEPICT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...AS THIS
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE
ECMWF HAS PERHAPS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS SIGNAL OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT (AND INCREASING MORE DURING DIURNAL TIMING ON
SATURDAY)...AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY FOR THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. DEPICTIONS FROM THE GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN WILDLY VARIABLE
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
THOUGH THE MODELS AGREE ON GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...THE
ACTUAL DEPICTION OF RAW SURFACE TEMP VALUES IS ALSO NOT AS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED AS WOULD BE IDEAL. FIGURING THAT THIS WILL END UP BEING
AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE CHANCES OR CLOUDS ANYWAY (ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY)...A BLENDED APPROACH SHOWING A GRADUAL RISE FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WAS USED IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE A LACK OF MAJOR WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS...AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTER AIR FROM THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. THIS MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION UNDER
COOLER AIR ALOFT. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL LESSEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE
STABLE REGIME.
TEMPERATURES MAY EXHIBIT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMALS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO START MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S ON
FRIDAY...INCREASING TO THE MID 80S BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS
TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME. THE
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOL MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR CONSIDERABLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY. IN ADDITION...ONE OF
THOSE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS SUCH...A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST WITH AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
632 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...PROVIDING THE OHIO VALLEY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN ON
FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING SLIGHTLY
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE COLDEST 850MB AIR (PERHAPS AS COLD AS 7C AT ILN)
WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. WITH INSOLATION EXPECTED TO
HELP MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH AT LEAST THAT HIGH...LAPSE
RATES IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE STEEP. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH-RES MODEL RUNS MATCH THIS
ACTIVITY TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE...AS WELL AS A WELL-TIMED (THOUGH
FAIRLY WEAK) SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. POPS
WILL BE KEPT IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE (AND DRY IN THE VERY FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA)...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA IF COVERAGE APPEARS GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A POSSIBILITY. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 00Z.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS OVER TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILN CWA. EVEN THE FREQUENTLY-AGGRESSIVE RAP ONLY
ALLOWS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA.
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE THREE CLIMATE
SITES FOR JULY 16.
CVG...72...1892
CMH...70...1892
DAY...72...1940/1918
OF THESE...DAYTON APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF FAILING
TO REACH THE OLD NUMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THE IMMEDIATE
DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE HIGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS SOON AS FRIDAY. THE PATTERN AND
TIMING OF THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW (AND GULF MOISTURE) IS
BEING HANDLED QUITE INCONSISTENTLY...LEADING TO A FORECAST WITH
LOWER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS SOON AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOW
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING (WHICH WILL STILL
REMAIN QUITE LOW AND NEAR RECORD VALUES). WITH WARMER AIR STARTING
TO MOVE IN ALOFT...MIXING ON THURSDAY SHOULD PRODUCE LESS CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE AS WELL.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT...TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AGAIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY (THOUGH MUCH MORE
BROAD THAN THE SIGNIFICANT MID-WEEK SYSTEM). COMBINED WITH THE
SHIFT IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...SOUTHERN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY CEASE TO BE
SUPPRESSED. MOST OF THE MODELS DEPICT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...AS THIS
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE
ECMWF HAS PERHAPS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS SIGNAL OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT (AND INCREASING MORE DURING DIURNAL TIMING ON
SATURDAY)...AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY FOR THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. DEPICTIONS FROM THE GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN WILDLY VARIABLE
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
THOUGH THE MODELS AGREE ON GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...THE
ACTUAL DEPICTION OF RAW SURFACE TEMP VALUES IS ALSO NOT AS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED AS WOULD BE IDEAL. FIGURING THAT THIS WILL END UP BEING
AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE CHANCES OR CLOUDS ANYWAY (ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY)...A BLENDED APPROACH SHOWING A GRADUAL RISE FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WAS USED IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE A LACK OF MAJOR WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS...AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTER AIR FROM THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. THIS MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION UNDER
COOLER AIR ALOFT. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL LESSEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE
STABLE REGIME.
TEMPERATURES MAY EXHIBIT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMALS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO START MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S ON
FRIDAY...INCREASING TO THE MID 80S BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS
TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME. THE
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOL MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR CONSIDERABLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY. IN ADDITION...ONE OF
THOSE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS SUCH...A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST WITH AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1012 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
INITIAL WAVE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SLOWLY EXPANDING INTO PARTS
OF EASTERN OK THIS MORNING...THOUGH WEDGE OF DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT ITS PROGRESS EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THAT SAID...BOTH RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT RUNS OF BOTH THE LOCAL
WRF AND HRRR REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP DURING THE DAY IN AREAS MAINLY WEST OF U.S. 75. 12Z NAM
ALSO DEPICTS INCREASING ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS PART OF SE
OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THESE TRENDS HAVE RAISED POPS
GENERALLY WEST OF A TUL-MKO-MLC LINE AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS
OVER MOST OF EASTERN OK DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. CURRENT CONFIG
OF FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF
TUL/RVS/MLC AREA THIS MORNING WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT
MLC THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA TAF SITES. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS...OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...
STILL EXPECTING A HEAVY RAIN EVENT TO UNFOLD ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND POSSIBLY WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 CAN EXPECT 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
UPWARDS OF 8 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THAT WILL RUN FROM 12Z THURSDAY TO 18Z FRIDAY.
LESSER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TULSA FORECAST AREA IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT WITH THE AID OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT THIS ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE SHIFTING EAST INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA FOR TODAY.
AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS THAT COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE REASONS FOR KEEPING CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT THAT USHERED THE UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER INTO THE REGION
CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE NORTH TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE TONIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COMPACT MID-LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN CREATING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS AS IT TRAVERSES
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL END THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SO...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME SMALL POPS DURING THAT TIME-FRAME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 75 63 69 63 / 60 50 80 60
FSM 80 64 71 64 / 40 30 80 80
MLC 78 65 70 64 / 70 40 80 60
BVO 74 62 68 60 / 50 50 70 60
FYV 78 58 67 61 / 20 30 70 60
BYV 76 58 68 60 / 10 20 50 60
MKO 75 63 68 62 / 60 50 80 60
MIO 77 61 70 61 / 20 30 60 60
F10 75 64 69 62 / 70 50 80 60
HHW 84 66 74 68 / 50 40 100 100
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-
OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
628 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY...THEN OFF THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND. A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW MAY DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST OF LANCASTER CO AS OF 08Z...BRINGING AN
END TO THE THREAT OF LINGERING SHRA. FURTHER WEST...CLEARING
SKIES...A CALM WIND AND WET GROUND HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY VALLEY
FOG. 11-3.9U SATL IMAGERY INDICATES THE MOST EXTENSIVE FOG IS IN
THE DEEP VALLEYS NORTH OF I-80. RAP AND NAMPARA BOTH INDICATE FOG
WILL BURN OFF IN ALL AREAS BY 12Z-13Z.
IR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LAKE EFFECT PLUMES COMING OFF OF
WESTERN LK ERIE...THE RESULT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR FLOWING
OVR WARM LAKE WATER. A FEW SHRA ALREADY NOTED EAST OF THE LK ERIE
SHORE AND PASSAGE OF POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD SUSTAIN THIS LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO THE LATE AM.
COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER TROF...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AMT OF CU ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATER
TODAY...WITH A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RTS
PROGGED CLOSE TO 7C/KM THIS AFTN OVR THE NW MTNS. ELSEWHERE...DRY
SLOT AND ASSOC NEGATIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WILL LIE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...SUPPORTING MSUNNY SKIES.
THE LARGEST NEGATIVE 925/850 TEMPS ANOMALIES IN GEFS DATA ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE M/U60S
EXPECTED. READINGS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 80F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SWING THRU THE REGION TONIGHT...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN PA EVEN
AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT FCST DRY FOR NOW.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE STATE TONIGHT...PROVIDING
FAVORABLE CONDS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DRY AIR AND A CALM WIND
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE INTO THE L/M40S ACROSS THE NORMAL
COOLS SPOTS OVR THE NW MTNS. THIS SCENARIO ALSO SUPPORTS LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES...WHERE
RIVER/STREAM WATER TEMPS ARE RUNNING IN THE 70S.
THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE A MSUNNY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER...UPPER
TROF AND ASSOC COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A FAIR AMT OF DIURNAL
CU. MDL SFC-700MB LAPSE RATES BECOME IMPRESSIVE BY AFTN AND CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHRA THRU EARLY AFTN OVR THE N MTNS. HOWEVER...BY
LATE AFTN...LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF TROF AXIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS CONVECTION. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS NEAR 12C SHOULD
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS FROM THE L70S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO
ARND 80F ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IDEAL CONDS FOR RAD COOLING THU NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...ALONG
WITH NEG PWAT ANOMALIES AND CLEAR SKIES. THE NORMALLY COOLER
VALLEYS OF THE NW MTNS COULD MAKE A RUN AT 40F.
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN OF
RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FRI-TUE WITH SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF
LOW OVR THE MISS VALLEY BECOMING DETACHED FROM MAIN BRANCH OF JET...THEN
SLOWLY DRIFTING NE TOWARD PA. EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN...BUT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHC OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION APPEARS PRUDENT SAT-TUE BASED ON GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BTW UPPER TROF TO THE WEST AND
UPPER RIDGE PARKED OFF THE SE COAST WILL DRAW INCREASINGLY WARM
AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA...SO HAVE SLOWLY RAMPED TEMPS UPWARD
TOWARD NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA THIS MORNING USHERING IN
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE AIRSPACE. AS SUCH...VFR CONDS
AT MOST TAF SITES ATTM EXCEPT EASTERN AIRFIELDS WHERE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE KEEPING LIFR CONDS. THESE SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
CONDS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE COLDER AIR STREAMING OVER WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE ARE
PRODUCING LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE. THESE SHOULD
SPREAD EAST DURING THE MORNING AND LEAD TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES AT
KBFD. ELSEWHERE...THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
CU FROM LATE MORNING ON...BUT ANY RESULTING CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR. A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WHERE CU BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY DEVELOPED...BUT ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AND SHORT LIVED.
OUTLOOK...
THU...AM FOG...ISOLD AFT SHOWERS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
356 PM PDT Wed Jul 16 2014
.Synopsis...
Monsoon moisture will bring mostly cloudy skies and near to below
normal temperatures through the end of the week. There is a chance
of thunderstorms & showers over higher terrain through Saturday
including the Sierra, Coastal, and Northern mountains surrounding
interior NorCal.
&&
.Discussion...
Deep moisture remains over NorCal represented by preciptable water
values from 1-1.5 inches. Storms were early to develop today...but
have been weaker than the past few days. The strongest storms thus
far have remained south of Yosemite. Still...A chance storms to
propagate north through the early evening. Although HRRR confines
the activity to the crest. Moderate onshore continues over the
southern valley and is keeping temperatures slightly below
normal. More clearing tonight over the srn/central valley will
allow for cooler lows compared to the past few nights. Cloud
cover will remain to the north keeping lows warmer there.
Onshore flow and cloud cover will keep temperatures in the upper
80`s to low 90`s southern valley through Saturday. Warmer to the
north where readings will be in the upper 90`s. A weak
disturbance moving north along the coast may help to enhance
activity on Thursday. However...both NMM/ARW WRF cores keep
activity mainly along the crest with an increase in activity over
Lassen and nrn Shasta county and have adjusted pop fields to
account for this shift. Will keep thunderstorm chances going over
the mountains Friday as instability remains with weak disturbance
off the coast. Drier air will begin filtering in on Saturday with
increasing westerly flow pushing most of the activity east of the
crest. Will focus pops over the Tuolumne county portion of the
Sierra where instability lingers.
.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)
By Sunday, the broad upper level trough over the PacNW will
deepen along the west coast, which will keep temperatures near
to slightly below normal for northern California. Most of the
moisture from the trough will remain generally north of our area,
and increased southwest flow will keep most of the monsoonal
moisture south and east of the area. Next week will continue to be
benign and dry under general southwest flow with a slight warming
trend through Wednesday. Shen
&&
.Aviation...
Mainly VFR next 24 hours across interior Northern California.
Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms over mountains will
continue through this evening. SW surface winds 20-30 kt near the
Delta.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
432 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST MAY LEAD TO INCREASED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT...LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF NEW LONDON, CT TO
SOUTHAMPTON, NY AS OF 3 PM WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS SUNSET. LIGHT RAIN NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTH FORK OF LONG
ISLAND AND EXPECTED TO END BY 6 PM...IF NOT SOONER. LATEST HRRR HAS
A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KMTP TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...BUT HAVE LEFT THE AREA
DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
THERE`S A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES
THIS EVENING WITH WAVES OF AROUND 3 FT IN THE
ROCKAWAYS...INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 6 FT OUT AT HITHER HILLS.
LOWS ARE A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ON THE TAILS OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE JUST BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH LOW HUMIDITY (DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE 50S). EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY...THOUGH SUSPECT WE`LL STILL
HAVE THIN CIRRUS OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT AS PER THE RH PROFILES IN
THE LATEST NAM AND GFS. (NOTE THE 100+ KT JET AT 200 HPA OVER THE
REGION).
TEMP FORECAST BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS THAT EXHIBITED
VERY LITTLE SPREAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS AND NEAR AVG TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF NEAR THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LATE DAY INSTABILITY FOR
AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM BOTH SAT/SUNDAY AFTERNOONS WELL NORTH/WEST
OF NYC.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FLOW ALOFT DIFFERENTLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING THE UPPER LOW TO THE
WEST...WITH CORRESPONDING LOWER HEIGHTS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD
KEEPING A FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. ECMWF WEAKENS THIS
LOW...WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS ALONG THE COAST...HELPING BRING THIS FRONT
AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.
AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...KEEPING PRECIP WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE OFFSHORE...BUT ALLOWING ENOUGH CLOUDS TO STREAM IN FROM
THE SOUTH TO HELP KEEP TEMPS SUNDAY-MON SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG. WITH THE
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR LATE DAY AND
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION FROM MON THROUGH WED...WITH NEAR AVG TEMPS
RETURNING FOR TUE-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
VFR...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE SEA BREEZES PASS THROUGH BY
SUNSET.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
CHANCE THAT SEA BREEZE DOES NOT CROSS THE TERMINAL...WINDS WOULD
OTHERWISE MOST LIKELY PREVAIL 240-270 MAGNETIC INTO THIS EVENING.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
CHANCE THAT SEA BREEZE DOES NOT CROSS THE TERMINAL...WINDS WOULD
OTHERWISE MOST LIKELY PREVAIL 240-270 MAGNETIC INTO THIS EVENING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU PM-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT ISO/SCT SHRA/TSTM IN AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN HAS BEEN EXTENDED AGAIN. ONLY WORKING
BUOY (44017) SHOWS 6.2 FT AT LAST REPORT AND HOLDING STEADY.
PERIOD IS 6-8 SECONDS...SO CERTAINLY ROUGH OUT THERE. LATEST 12Z
RUN OF THE WWW3 MODEL SUPPORT THIS OBSERVATIONS...THOUGH IS A BIT
TOO HIGH. SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF MONTAUK
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO ELEVATE OCEAN SEAS
ON MON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN WILL END OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS BY EVENING...NO HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
347 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST MAY LEAD TO INCREASED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT...LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF NEW LONDON, CT TO
SOUTHAMPTON, NY AS OF 3 PM WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS SUNSET. LIGHT RAIN NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTH FORK OF LONG
ISLAND AND EXPECTED TO END BY 6 PM...IF NOT SOONER. LATEST HRRR HAS
A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KMTP TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...BUT HAVE LEFT THE AREA
DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
THERE`S A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES
THIS EVENING WITH WAVES OF AROUND 3 FT IN THE
ROCKAWAYS...INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 6 FT OUT AT HITHER HILLS.
LOWS ARE A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ON THE TAILS OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE JUST BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH LOW HUMIDITY (DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE 50S). EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY...THOUGH SUSPECT WE`LL STILL
HAVE THIN CIRRUS OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT AS PER THE RH PROFILES IN
THE LATEST NAM AND GFS. (NOTE THE 100+ KT JET AT 200 HPA OVER THE
REGION).
TEMP FORECAST BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS THAT EXHIBITED
VERY LITTLE SPREAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS AND NEAR AVG TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF NEAR THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LATE DAY INSTABILITY FOR
AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM BOTH SAT/SUNDAY AFTERNOONS WELL NORTH/WEST
OF NYC.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FLOW ALOFT DIFFERENTLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING THE UPPER LOW TO THE
WEST...WITH CORRESPONDING LOWER HEIGHTS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD
KEEPING A FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. ECMWF WEAKENS THIS
LOW...WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS ALONG THE COAST...HELPING BRING THIS FRONT
AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.
AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...KEEPING PRECIP WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE OFFSHORE...BUT ALLOWING ENOUGH CLOUDS TO STREAM IN FROM
THE SOUTH TO HELP KEEP TEMPS SUNDAY-MON SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG. WITH THE
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR LATE DAY AND
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION FROM MON THROUGH WED...WITH NEAR AVG TEMPS
RETURNING FOR TUE-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
VFR...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE SEA BREEZES PASS THROUGH BY
SUNSET.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
CHANCE THAT SEA BREEZE DOES NOT CROSS THE TERMINAL...WINDS WOULD
OTHERWISE MOST LIKELY PREVAIL 240-270 MAGNETIC INTO THIS EVENING.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
CHANCE THAT SEA BREEZE DOES NOT CROSS THE TERMINAL...WINDS WOULD
OTHERWISE MOST LIKELY PREVAIL 240-270 MAGNETIC INTO THIS EVENING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU PM-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT ISO/SCT SHRA/TSTM IN AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN HAS BEEN EXTENDED AGAIN. ONLY WORKING
BUOY (44017) SHOWS 6.2 FT AT LAST REPORT AND HOLDING STEADY.
PERIOD IS 6-8 SECONDS...SO CERTAINLY ROUGH OUT THERE. LATEST 12Z
RUN OF THE WWW3 MODEL SUPPORT THIS OBSERVATIONS...THOUGH IS A BIT
TOO HIGH. SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF MONTAUK
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO ELEVATE OCEAN SEAS
ON MON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN WILL END OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS BY EVENING...NO HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
119 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED. COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN
SUFFOLK AND SOUTHEASTERN CT AS DEFINED BY WIND SHIFT AND LOWERING
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM. SHOWERS NOW CONFINED TO LONG
ISLAND AND CT. CONVECTION IS PASSING SOUTHEAST OF KMTP.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE BASIC ELEMENTS BEING UPDATED
BASED ON TRENDS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR RUNS. ONE LARGE CHANGE WAS
MADE TO THE WINDS. RAP AND HRRR INDICATE A SEA BREEZE. AFTER THIS
NORTHERLY SURGE THAT MOVES THE FRONT TO THE EAST...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BECOMES WEAK AS SEEM BY THE CURRENTLY CALM WINDS OVER THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THUS...EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING FOR A SEA BREEZE
TO DEVELOP.
AS FOR PCPN...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF AN ISOLATED TSTMS...THOUGH THINK
THIS THREAT IS VERY LOW DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY ALOFT. WILL
LIKELY REMOVE THIS WITH THE 1 PM UPDATE.
THERE`S A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE AIR MASS
GRADUALLY DRYING OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ON THE TAILS OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STATES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE JUST BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S AT
THE COAST. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK THERMAL TROUGH FRIDAY AFTN COMBINING WITH PASSAGE OF
WEAK VORT MAX COULD WORK TO TRIGGER AN ISO SHOWER OVER INTERIOR
REGIONS WITH WEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LIMITING
MOISTURE COULD ASSIST IN KEEPING THINGS DRY...AND THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THE
UPPER FLOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH THE RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
PUSHES EAST WARRANTS THE CONTINUING MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC PCPN SAT
AFTN/EVENING. MEANWHILE...AS THE HIGH LOSES ITS HOLD ON THE
NORTHEAST...WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND
GRADUALLY NUDGES TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...00Z MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE IN KEEPING THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE FROM THE REGION SO THE ACTUAL IMPACT OF THE LOW LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL TO THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED CHC
POPS FOR NOW WITH DECENT FORCING ALOFT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVES
POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. HOWEVER...IF THIS
MODEL TREND CONTINUES...COULD VERY WELL END UP SEEING A DRY WEEKEND
WITH THE PCPN HOLDING OFF INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS HOVER RIGHT AROUND NORMAL HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
COASTAL AREAS POTENTIALLY REMAINING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NYC TERMINALS AT 11Z...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST PASSING EAST OF THE REGION AROUND 00Z/THU.
VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS WHERE MARGINAL VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...THEN GO BACK TO NORTHWEST TO NORTH AFTER
00Z.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR...BRIEF MARGINAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TO
AROUND 14Z WITH SHOWERS. 17Z WIND BACKS TO WEST...270 TO 280 TRUE.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR...BRIEF MARGINAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TO
AROUND 14Z WITH SHOWERS. 17Z WIND BACKS TO WEST...270 TO 280 TRUE.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR...BRIEF MARGINAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TO
AROUND 13Z WITH SHOWERS. 16Z WIND BACKS TO WEST...270 TO 280 TRUE.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR...16Z WIND BACKS TO WEST...270 TO 280 TRUE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR...BRIEF MARGINAL CONDITIONS TO AROUND 13Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE OF CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS TO 13Z JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. 19Z WIND BECOMES WESTERLY...AROUND 290 TRUE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR...BRIEF MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
THROUGH 14Z. VERY LOW CHANCE THAT SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR EMBEDDED
IN THE SHOWERS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR...HOWEVER MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
SHRA/TSTM WEST OF A LINE FROM WESTERN CT TO CENTRAL LONG ISLAND.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS LONGER
INTO THIS EVENING...FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN RIGHT
AROUND 5 FT WITH A SLY WIND WAVE. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS BY FRIDAY WILL KEEP SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...COULD
SEE INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE EAST OF NYC
TODAY WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE
THE MOST LIKELY TYPE OF FLOODING...HOWEVER SMALL STREAM FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
BEYOND THIS EVENT...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/DW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MET
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE/DW
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
233 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...THRU FRI NIGHT...AS THE HI-RES MODELS WERE
INDICATING...THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN S OF I-10 CORRIDOR DIMINISHED
WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG FL/GA BORDER. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE COVERAGE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR
AND FAR SE GA....WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION. CLOUDS AND PRECIP HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN IN MID/UPR 80S
THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AND LOW TEMPS IN UPR 60S INTERIOR TO
LOWER/MID 70S COAST...AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS THU/FRI...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED THU AND FRI...LWR 90S INTERIOR...
AROUND 90 EASTERN COUNTIES WITH UPR 80S COAST.
.LONG TERM...SAT THRU TUE...MOISTURE INCREASES OVER WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK WHILE WEAK UPR TROF PARKS OVER SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS
SHOULD BRING BACK DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
NOT MUCH SEEN IN TERMS OF SUBSTANTIAL WARMING THIS PERIOD...WITH
HIGH TEMPS REMAINING UPR 80S COAST TO LOWER 90S WELL INLAND...LOW
TEMPS LOWER 70S INLAND/MID 70S COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
TAFS SHOW CLEARING DURING EVENING. DID NOT SHOW LOW CLOUDINESS
DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS EVERYTHING
VFR...HOWEVER...THE HRRR CEILING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP 08-12Z ACROSS NE FL. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL FOR SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH GENERALLY
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 67 91 68 93 / 20 10 0 10
SSI 74 87 75 87 / 60 10 10 10
JAX 72 90 72 91 / 60 20 10 10
SGJ 74 87 74 87 / 50 20 20 10
GNV 71 91 69 91 / 40 20 20 10
OCF 72 91 71 91 / 50 20 20 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WOLF/SANDRIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
215 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO SET UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY DROPPING AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DRYING IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH A LARGE
WEST TO EAST PW GRADIENT...LESS THAN 0.9 INCHES IN THE FAR UPSTATE
TO OVER 2.00 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z SPC WRF AND 15Z HRRR DISPLAY JUST
ISOLATED COVERAGE. ALL OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE POPS 20 PERCENT
OR LESS. HAVE FURTHER DECREASED THE VERY LOW POPS WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS CLOSER TO THE DEEPER
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SETS UP DURING THE DAY AND MOISTURE
BEGING TO RETURN TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT HAVE POP FOR
FRIDAY BUT WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. WILL
HAVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AND LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE H5 TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE THE REMNANTS
OF THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
POPS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS
MAINLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND
CONTINUED DRYING WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
CLOUDS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BE BECOME
LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AT OGB...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE
MOMENT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1230 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
326 AM CDT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF METEOROLOGICALLY BORING WEATHER IS ON TAP
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WHICH WILL BE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE WANTING
DRIER WEATHER IDEAL FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANKS OF
THE LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW TODAY...BUT WITH CONTINUED
HEIGHT RISES AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE
SPOTTY/BRIEF AT WORST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY BUT
GENERALLY A COUPLE DEGREES MILDER THAN YESTERDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE
FRONT WHERE IT SHOULD BE DAY 1 OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A 7+ DAY STRETCH
OF LAKE BREEZES.
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OUT AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AND END OF THE WEEK WITH A TRANSITION A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THE RESULT
WILL BE GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE THREAT OF
PRECIP THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN A RETURN TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY. WILL BRIEFLY MENTION THAT THE 00Z WRF-NAM IS A STRONG AND
NORTHERLY OUTLIER WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY...AND GIVEN THE STRONG GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS TOWARD A FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER SOLUTION FELT
COMFORTABLE DISCOUNTING THE NAM.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT AND A
FEW GUSTS EARLY NEAR 15-19 KT...EASING DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.
* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST KEEPING SYNOPTIC WINDS LIGHT OVER THE
TERMINALS. AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE SHORE AREA
WILL HELP TO DRIVE A LAKE BREEZE AND NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS EASING MID AFTERNOON. WIND
DIRECTION SHOULD BE VARIABLE AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE IS AGAIN LIKELY TO DEVELOP THURSDAY HOWEVER
ITS PROGRESSION INLAND IS DIFFICULT TO GAUGE AT THIS POINT. THIS
COULD REACH MDW IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND ORD LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
JUST SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN TRACON AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM IN TIMING OF NORTHEAST WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.
* LOW IN WHETHER LAKE BREEZE WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
221 AM CDT
MARINE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE RELATIVELY FEW...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY WORKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND SPREADS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...THE MIDWEST AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST BY FRIDAY TO ALLOW
MODEST SOUTH WINDS ON THE LAKE...THOUGH DILUTED BY AFTERNOON LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EVEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACK
REMAINS ACROSS CANADA AND MORE ENHANCED SOUTH FLOW REMAINS FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN LAKES AND INTO ONTARIO.
IN THE NEAR TERM...WEAK TROUGH/CONVERGENT BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A LINGERING ISOLATED WATERSPOUT THREAT TOWARD
THE EASTERN SHORE. TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT BY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
MORE STABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHERWISE...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
OVER THE IL/IND NEARSHORE WATERS (GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT)...WITH
WAVES AT MICHIGAN CITY BUOY 45170 DOWN TO 3 FT AS OF 2 AM CDT AND
THUS WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE WITH 4 AM CDT NSH
ISSUANCE.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1009 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014
Starting to see diurnal cumulus developing over the last 15-30
minutes as expected. Based on the RAP layer humidity plots and the
fact that the core of the colder air has shifted to the northeast,
am thinking that the cumulus will not be as widespread as
yesterday, so have made some downward adjustments to the cloud
cover to indicate some more sunshine. Had to make some adjustments
to the highs across the western CWA, which has already reached the
70 degree range at 10 am, but the eastern CWA temperatures are
largely on track.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014
Diurnal cumulus rapidly developed around 15Z and has risen in
height to around 4500 feet or so. Coverage expected to be
scattered or occasionally broken this afternoon, before rapidly
diminishing toward early evening. Similar trends expected tomorrow
morning.
Northerly winds expected to become light and variable tonight as
high pressure drifts overhead.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 309 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday
Unseasonably deep upper low currently centered over southwest
Quebec will gradually lose its influence on the weather across
central Illinois over the next couple of days. As upper heights
slowly rise and air mass modification takes place, temperatures
will warm a few degrees each day. Afternoon highs today will only
reach the lower to middle 70s, but will rise to around 80 degrees
by Friday.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday
The warming trend will continue through the extended, with
temperatures returning to the upper 80s to around 90 degrees early
next week. Precipitation chances will remain negligible through the
period. There is still some question about the exact track of an
upper-level short-wave currently evident on water vapor imagery
over eastern Montana. This feature is progged to drop
southeastward into the southern Plains on Thursday, then track
E/NE into the Tennessee River Valley by the end of the week. With
the exception of the outlier NAM, the 00z Jul 18 model suite is in
fairly good agreement with keeping precip associated with this
wave to the S/SE of central Illinois. ECMWF/GEM both brush the far
SE KILX CWA with some precip on Saturday, so have included slight
chance PoPs south of I-70 at that time. This wave is expected to
become nearly stationary across the Ohio/Tennessee River valleys
early next week, with most of the associated precip occurring
along/east of the trough axis across Indiana and Ohio. GFS
splashes QPF across the eastern half of Illinois on both Sunday
and Monday, but think this is overdone and not worth mentioning in
the forecast. After that, upper ridge builds in earnest across the
Southern Rockies, placing the Midwest in a northwesterly flow
pattern. Have added slight chance PoPs to the forecast Tuesday
night into Wednesday, as MCS activity becomes increasingly likely
by the middle of next week.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1115 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
326 AM CDT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF METEOROLOGICALLY BORING WEATHER IS ON TAP
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WHICH WILL BE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE WANTING
DRIER WEATHER IDEAL FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANKS OF
THE LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW TODAY...BUT WITH CONTINUED
HEIGHT RISES AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE
SPOTTY/BRIEF AT WORST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY BUT
GENERALLY A COUPLE DEGREES MILDER THAN YESTERDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE
FRONT WHERE IT SHOULD BE DAY 1 OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A 7+ DAY STRETCH
OF LAKE BREEZES.
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OUT AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AND END OF THE WEEK WITH A TRANSITION A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THE RESULT
WILL BE GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE THREAT OF
PRECIP THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN A RETURN TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY. WILL BRIEFLY MENTION THAT THE 00Z WRF-NAM IS A STRONG AND
NORTHERLY OUTLIER WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY...AND GIVEN THE STRONG GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS TOWARD A FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER SOLUTION FELT
COMFORTABLE DISCOUNTING THE NAM.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* NORTH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT AND
POSSIBLY AROUND 12 KT.
RATZER/MTF
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RELEASE ITS INFLUENCE
ON WEATHER ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH A SUBTLE
TROUGH PASSAGE BRINGING A PATCH OF VFR CIGS AND A SHIFT TO NORTH
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SPREADING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FACTOR ON
LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAKER GRADIENT WITH APPROACH OF
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING...AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A MORE NORTHEAST COMPONENT TO WIND NEAR 10 KT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND CONTINUE TO VEER EAST-SOUTHEAST BY
EVENING...THEN DIMINISH BELOW 5 KT OVERNIGHT.
WITH LINGERING COOL AIR ALOFT...VFR CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING...THOUGH WILL SCATTER OUT AS STABLE MARINE AIR
SPREADS IN WITH LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH IN TIMING OF AFTERNOON WINDS AND MEDIUM IN SPEEDS.
RATZER/MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
221 AM CDT
MARINE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE RELATIVELY FEW...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY WORKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND SPREADS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...THE MIDWEST AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIDGE MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST BY FRIDAY TO ALLOW
MODEST SOUTH WINDS ON THE LAKE...THOUGH DILUTED BY AFTERNOON LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EVEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACK
REMAINS ACROSS CANADA AND MORE ENHANCED SOUTH FLOW REMAINS FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN LAKES AND INTO ONTARIO.
IN THE NEAR TERM...WEAK TROUGH/CONVERGENT BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A LINGERING ISOLATED WATERSPOUT THREAT TOWARD
THE EASTERN SHORE. TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT BY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
MORE STABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHERWISE...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
OVER THE IL/IND NEARSHORE WATERS (GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT)...WITH
WAVES AT MICHIGAN CITY BUOY 45170 DOWN TO 3 FT AS OF 2 AM CDT AND
THUS WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE WITH 4 AM CDT NSH
ISSUANCE.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1014 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1009 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014
Starting to see diurnal cumulus developing over the last 15-30
minutes as expected. Based on the RAP layer humidity plots and the
fact that the core of the colder air has shifted to the northeast,
am thinking that the cumulus will not be as widespread as
yesterday, so have made some downward adjustments to the cloud
cover to indicate some more sunshine. Had to make some adjustments
to the highs across the western CWA, which has already reached the
70 degree range at 10 am, but the eastern CWA temperatures are
largely on track.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 619 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. CU/SC is
expected to develop again today. At SPI and DEC, and probably PIA, CU
should be scattered, but at BMI and CMI, the CU could be broken at
times. So will have TEMPO groups for these sites around the 18z
time period. Clouds will be diurnal, so should dissipate around
00z at all sites, or a little after at CMI and BMI. Winds will be
northwest, becoming northerly during the day, and then light and
variable tonight.
Auten
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 309 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday
Unseasonably deep upper low currently centered over southwest
Quebec will gradually lose its influence on the weather across
central Illinois over the next couple of days. As upper heights
slowly rise and air mass modification takes place, temperatures
will warm a few degrees each day. Afternoon highs today will only
reach the lower to middle 70s, but will rise to around 80 degrees
by Friday.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday
The warming trend will continue through the extended, with
temperatures returning to the upper 80s to around 90 degrees early
next week. Precipitation chances will remain negligible through the
period. There is still some question about the exact track of an
upper-level short-wave currently evident on water vapor imagery
over eastern Montana. This feature is progged to drop
southeastward into the southern Plains on Thursday, then track
E/NE into the Tennessee River Valley by the end of the week. With
the exception of the outlier NAM, the 00z Jul 18 model suite is in
fairly good agreement with keeping precip associated with this
wave to the S/SE of central Illinois. ECMWF/GEM both brush the far
SE KILX CWA with some precip on Saturday, so have included slight
chance PoPs south of I-70 at that time. This wave is expected to
become nearly stationary across the Ohio/Tennessee River valleys
early next week, with most of the associated precip occurring
along/east of the trough axis across Indiana and Ohio. GFS
splashes QPF across the eastern half of Illinois on both Sunday
and Monday, but think this is overdone and not worth mentioning in
the forecast. After that, upper ridge builds in earnest across the
Southern Rockies, placing the Midwest in a northwesterly flow
pattern. Have added slight chance PoPs to the forecast Tuesday
night into Wednesday, as MCS activity becomes increasingly likely
by the middle of next week.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
159 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION/HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE AREA WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF COOL AIR AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FLOATING AROUND AS LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS
FAIRLY LOW THAT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL SEE RAINFALL.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
I UPDATED THE ZONES AND GRIDS TO REFLECT 30 TO 40 PCT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EAST OF US-131 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS BASED ON A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. RUC13 MODEL SOUNDING AT 14Z SHOW
WEAK CAPE... AROUND 150 J/KG ...WITH CLOUD TOP VALUES OF 25,000
FT. THAT IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS. ACTUALLY
IF WE GOT THOSE 25,000 FT CLOUD TOPS WE MAY EVEN SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE -20C HEIGHT IS NEAR 20,000 FT. HOWEVER THE
AIR ABOVE 15,000 IS RATHER DRY SO I DO NOT THINK TO MAY SHOWERS
WILL GET ECHO TOPS THAT HIGH. ALSO OVER TIME THE AIR ABOVE 15,000
DRYS OUT EVEN FARTHER SO BY LATE AFTERNOON IT WOULD BE MORE
UNLIKELY TO HAVE THAT THEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST IS FINE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 803 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW TWO BOUNDARIES: ONE EXTENDING
FROM MARSHALL NORTHWEST TO MUSKEGON...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING
NORTHWEST THROUGH BENTON HARBOR INTO LAKE MICHIGAN. BOTH OF THESE
BOUNDARIES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...TOOK SPRINKLES OUT
OF THE FORECAST NORTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES FOR THE REST OF THIS
MORNING. STILL EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE ONLY WEATHER OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE RESIDUAL
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS TODAY. UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE MAIN UPPER LOW
HAS MOVED WELL NE OF THE AREA...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL WAVES HAVE
DROPPED IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF IT OVER THE AREA KEEPING THE CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE. THIS IS BRINGING DOWN A DECK OF CLOUDS INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE PATTERN HAS TRANSITIONED TO WHERE MOST ALL PCPN IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES FLOATING THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT HAVING MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA IS LIMITING THE VERTICAL GROWTH OF ANY UPDRAFT THAT GETS GOING.
THIS LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND ALSO THE INTENSITY.
WE EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE THE LITTLE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP TODAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME
ANTI-CYCLONIC TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ALONG THE MI/IN AND THE
SHORT WAVE NEAR GRAND TRAVERSE BAY THIS A.M. ROTATE TO THE EAST AND
TAKE THE UPPER JET CORE WITH THEM.
THE PERIOD FROM THU THROUGH FRI THEN LOOKS DRY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE WITH WARMING TEMPS. A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER TO JUST A LITTLE FLAT
CU AT WORST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS ALOFT AT H850 WARM
A BIT EACH DAY. H850 TEMPS APPROACH 12C BY FRI AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS APPROACHING 80 BY FRI AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
KEPT OVERALL LOW PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THIS...HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS NOTED
PREVIOUSLY...THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXIST
TUESDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW
FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHEN SIGNIFICANT LARGE
SCALE FORCING IS LACKING AND MESOSCALE EFFECTS TEND TO DOMINATE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
REACHING THE MID 80S BY TUESDAY...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. A STRAY SHOWER
MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD AT KLAN AND KJXN. A POP UP THUNDERSTORM IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT THIS WOULD BE FAR TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. THESE POP UP SHOWERS ARE DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ROTATING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP AROUND 9 KTS THROUGH 23Z
BEFORE SUBSIDING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN
WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DRY OUT...SO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
I DROPPED THE WATER SPOUTS FROM THE FORECAST AS THE WATER SPOUT
NOMOGRAM SUGGESTS WE NEED CONVECTIVE DEPTHS NEAR 25,000 FT...
WHICH WE CLEARLY WILL NOT HAVE (SEE UPDATE DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR
DETAILS ON THAT).
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE LONE
RIVER FLOOD ADVISORY IS FOR THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS. THE
MAPLE RIVER WILL STEADILY FALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1229 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE RAP AND NAM SHOW NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY TODAY...750MB
CAPE...AND RADAR INDICATES TSTMS ACROSS ERN COLO WHERE THIS
INSTABILITY IS FCST TO BE. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST.
ALSO...WE ARE NOT GETTING NEARLY THE RADAR COVERAGE THE MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST WITH THE QPF. SO A 50-50 BLEND OF RAP-OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN PLACE WHICH LOWERS THE POP BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT FOR
MORE SCATTERED RAIN COVERAGE VS LIKELY IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...RESIDENT MCV ACROSS ERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE SHOULD
DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING PRODUCING REASONABLE RAIN FROM
KAIA-KOGA-KIML. SOME SOLNS LIKE THE GEM AND SREF SPREAD RAIN FARTHER
EAST INTO KLBF BUT THESE MODELS DONT LINE UP WITH THE CURRENT RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE LIES FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
MT BETWEEN KBIL-KMLS AND THIS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTN
AND EVENING FOLLOWING THE SAME COURSE AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM.
HPC OUTLOOKS THE SOUTHWEST FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BUT THE 6 HOUR QPF
THEY PROVIDE AND MODEL BLENDED TOTALS DO NOT APPROACH ANYWHERE NEAR
THE FLOOD GUIDANCE REQUIRED FOR THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. BEST
GUESS ON QPF FOR THE SOUTHWEST IS AROUND AN INCH TOTAL FOR THIS
EVENT.
HIGHS TODAY REMAIN STEADY IN THE MID 60S IN THE RAIN LIKELY AREA
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE DRY NCNTL ZONES.
LOTS OF TRAPPED MOISTURE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD
KEEP SKIES OVERCAST. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 50S. NONE OF THE
MODELS INDICATE FOG BUT THE GUIDANCE SURE DOES AT
KIML-KAIA-KOGA-KSNY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE PV ANOMALY/SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...WILL BE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
HIGH AMOUNTS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL
ENSURE A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE SOME WEAK LIFT WILL BE
PRESENT. BY AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DRY OUT WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. H850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
THOUGH THE DAY...APPROACHING 20C BY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WHERE
CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH ALL LOCATIONS INTO THE 90S FOR
HIGHS BY SUNDAY. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 90S THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING A BIT
WITH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ IS TO KEEP
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SOMEWHERE OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINING MODERATE FROM THE WEST OVER
OUR REGION. A NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...SHOWN IN BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF...IS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH. SOME CONVECTION IS GENERATED BY BOTH MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY POPS THIS FORECAST CYCLE HOWEVER...AS
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE MUCH STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND DRY. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL HIGH/LOWER
HEIGHTS DURING THE WEEKEND...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MAY HAVE
TO BE INTRODUCED SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS AS WE HAD INTO NEXT WEEK. THEY INSIST THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AND BUILD/EXPAND NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION...WITH H700 MB TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 16C AND H500 MB TEMPS
NEAR -5C. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND A DRY
FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
VRF CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECK EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE AVIATION
CONCERN.
FURTHER SOUTH SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS ARE CREATING A TRICKY FORECAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND INTO THE PANHANDLE. ONLY INCLUDING
VCSH IN THE KLBF TAF FOR NOW AS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
JUST SLIGHTLY OFF TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL...HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VISBYS
TONIGHT AT KLBF. RIGHT NOW HAVE INCLUDED OVC015 AND 4SM IN THE TAF
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED
WITH THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE AS FORECAST GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
543 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF OUR REGION BY FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END TO THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WITH ITS AXIS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
POOL OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT IS CONTINUING TO BRING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKE PLAINS AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
DIRECTLY EAST OF THE LAKES A LAKE SHADOW OF MORE STABLE AIR IS
FOUND WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES.
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE DIURNAL CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH SLOWLY AFTER SUNSET. NEAR-TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
RGEM SUGGEST A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS THIS EVENING SHIFTING
SOUTH FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AS A
SURFACE TROUGH FOUND ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON DIPS SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE EXPECT AREAS OF
RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OVERNIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY IN THE DAY MAY PRODUCE
STRATO-CU FIELD INLAND FROM A LAKE SHADOW...HOWEVER DRIER
ATMOSPHERE WILL FAVOR LESS CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STRAY CLOSE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 17 ARE AS FOLLOWS:
BUFFALO 52/1985
ROCHESTER 48/1892
WATERTOWN...44/1993
THESE RECORDS ARE PROBABLY SAFE...EXCEPT FOR BUFFALO WHERE IF SKIES
CAN CLEAR EARLY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THEN THE RECORD
LOW MAY BE IN JEOPARDY OF FALLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES SATURDAY WITH SOME DAYTIME CU AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
TIER MAY PREVENT VALLEY FOG FROM FORMING.
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY THEN NORMAL OR SLIGHT ABOVE FRIDAY NIGHT..DEPENDANT UPON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD AS MODELS
CONSENSUS IS STILL WEAK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER THAN THE
ECMWF HOWEVER NOW APPEARS TO BE TRENDING MORE TOWARD AN INVERTED
TROUGH SPREADING MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER ON SATURDAY
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH HANGING TOUGH OVER NEW YORK THOUGH POPS AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURE-WISE HIGH LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL READINGS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY THEN RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO WARM WITH TIME WITH READING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DIURNAL STRATO-CU DECK WITH BASES 3-4K FT CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AWAY FROM THE LAKES. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER AND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH MODELS SUGGESTING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL FORM IN THE SOUTHERN TIER REDUCING VSBY
TO 2-3SM IN SPOTS BUT NOT IMPACTING KJHW.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS ON THURSDAY WITH BASES 4K WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE TRANQUIL...W 5 TO 10
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...OTHER THAN VALLEY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS
INTO BUFFALO HARBOR AND UPPER NIAGARA RIVER FOR THIS EVENING SW
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING HAS PRODUCED SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND MAY EVEN BRING A
FEW WATERSPOUTS ON LAKE ERIE. THE SZILAGYI WATERSPOUT NOMOGRAM
FORECAST SUGGESTS A SMALL CHANCE MAINLY ON LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS
ON LAKE ERIE AND WEST LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AT WHICH TIME
THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD POOL WILL MAKE
WATERSPOUT FORMATION UNLIKELY.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
040-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/JF
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH/JF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
651 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT...THEN STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND DRIFT
TOWARDS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME DOMINANT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT STARTING TO EDGE TOWARD THE COAST...ROUGHLY LYING
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM KILL DEVIL HILLS TO KENANSVILLE.
PRECIPITATION LINGERS ALONG THE COAST WITH A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS
OVER THE OUTER BANKS...WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND. HAVE
TWEAKED POPS DOWN WITH 3KM HRRR AND RAP SHOWING PRECIPITATION
GRADUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 03Z AND 06Z. WITH THE
WET GROUND...ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG TO FORM LATE TONIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE NC COAST THURS WITH A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE NOSING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES THURS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
THURS WITH RIDGING IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL
TOMORROW DESPITE LOTS OF SUN, MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND LOW
80S COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS THU NIGHT WITH RIDGING IN PLACE...THEN IT APPEARS THE
STALLED TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT BACK WEST CLOSER TO THE AREA.
WILL CONTINUE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OBX/COASTAL WATERS FRI AFTERNOON...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER/TSTORM ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE WHICH SHOULD MOVE
DEEP INLAND FRI GIVEN NE/E BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THOUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND AND
MID 60S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST...AND HIGHS IN THE LOW/UPPER
80S FRI.
00Z GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE DEVELOPS INTO AN INVERTED
TROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF SHIFTS THE TROUGH SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO LAND THAN THE GFS SOLUTION FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH
MAKES WIND AND POP/WX FORECASTS TRICKY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
NORTHEAST WINDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE
SLOWLY VEERING EAST SUN AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT. A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVES COULD CROSS THE REGION IN LIGHT MEAN SW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH ALSO MAKES TIMING OF PRECIP TRICKY. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM EAST TO WEST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND SUN
GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH PWATS
BUILDING ABOVE 2 INCHES...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MOD/HEAVY RAINFALL
AT TIMES. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN GREATER CLOUD
COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
INHIBIT MAXIMUM INSOLATION. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME...THOUGH MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH
INSTABILITY...SO FEEL THUNDER WILL OVERALL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BY MON...HEDGED CLOSER TO THE WPC/ECMWF AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
WINDS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD TAKE OVER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH
THE REMNANTS OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY/INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTING
NORTH OF THE REGION. THE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TAP THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MON INTO TUES...WITH 00Z
GUIDANCE HINTING AT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION ALOFT.
WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN NC MON/TUES. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REMAIN 1405-1415 METERS MON AND TUES WHICH SUPPORTS
MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE OBX/COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION EXITING THE
AREA...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AT THS TAF SITES. WITH A
FEW ISOLATED LINGERING SHOWERS TO THE WEST...MAY STILL SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
A SATURATED GROUND...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND WILL FORECAST AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY WITH VFR
PREVAILING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS
POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OVER THE
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT THROUGH MON WITH
INVERTED TROUGH AND LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM...WILL CONTINUE SCA SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. DIAMOND
BUOY STILL HOVERING AROUND 6 FEET ALTHOUGH WINDS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS AND MAY EXTEND FOR A FEW HOURS
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND POST FRONTAL NNE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15 KT
AND GUSTY ON THURSDAY. SEAS REMAIN 3-5 FT THRU THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...MODERATE NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
THU NIGHT INTO SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 3-5FT. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FRI. COULD POSSIBLY SEE
SEAS UP TO 6FT FOR OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS THU NIGHT
INTO FRI...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CAP AT 5FT NOW. GUIDANCE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER EAST
THOUGHOUT THE DAY SUN...GENERALLY AOB 10KT SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
WITH SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD/DAG
AVIATION...CTC/CQD/BM
MARINE...CTC/BTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1224 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LIGHT RAIN SLOWLY SPREADING EAST INTO NE OKLAHOMA BUT CONTINUES
TO ENCOUNTER A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE
ACROSS EASTERN OK THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WHILE
LIKELY HOLDING ACROSS W ARKANSAS INTO EARLY THU MORNING. NET
RESULT WILL BE GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS TONIGHT ACROSS E OK WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING LIKELY...AND LOCAL IFR WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...
INITIAL WAVE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SLOWLY EXPANDING INTO PARTS
OF EASTERN OK THIS MORNING...THOUGH WEDGE OF DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT ITS PROGRESS EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THAT SAID...BOTH RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT RUNS OF BOTH THE LOCAL
WRF AND HRRR REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP DURING THE DAY IN AREAS MAINLY WEST OF U.S. 75. 12Z NAM
ALSO DEPICTS INCREASING ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS PART OF SE
OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THESE TRENDS HAVE RAISED POPS
GENERALLY WEST OF A TUL-MKO-MLC LINE AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS
OVER MOST OF EASTERN OK DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. CURRENT CONFIG
OF FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS GOOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF
TUL/RVS/MLC AREA THIS MORNING WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT
MLC THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA TAF SITES. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS...OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...
STILL EXPECTING A HEAVY RAIN EVENT TO UNFOLD ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND POSSIBLY WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 CAN EXPECT 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
UPWARDS OF 8 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THAT WILL RUN FROM 12Z THURSDAY TO 18Z FRIDAY.
LESSER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TULSA FORECAST AREA IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT WITH THE AID OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT THIS ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE SHIFTING EAST INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA FOR TODAY.
AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS THAT COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE REASONS FOR KEEPING CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT THAT USHERED THE UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER INTO THE REGION
CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE NORTH TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE TONIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COMPACT MID-LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN CREATING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS AS IT TRAVERSES
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL END THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SO...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME SMALL POPS DURING THAT TIME-FRAME.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-
OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
259 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS STRUGGLED TODAY AND UNDERESTIMATED THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH 18Z FORECAST DEW POINTS GENERALLY 3-7 DEGREES BELOW
THE METARS. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM JACKSBORO TO GRANBURY TO
CORSICANA. STORMS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE BETTER PRECIP STILL TO COME THURSDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE DOES CONVERGE ON HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM ONE OR MORE MCS
OR MCS SEGMENTS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP
THAT WE ARE EXPECTING. THERE MAY BE HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWEST INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY THAT MAY SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY AS WELL. HRRR HINTS AT THIS BUT TTU
WRF DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK.
THE SECOND ROUND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...ALSO IN THE FORM OF SOME SORT OF MCS OR QLCS. THESE
STORMS WILL BE AIDED BY A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE AND A PUSH FROM
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.
PRECIP WILL SHUT DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TO OUR WEST.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN THE EAST AND HAVE LEFT THE
20 POPS THERE. CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. THERE MAY HAVE TO BE LOW POPS ADDED NEAR MID WEEK FOR A
POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT THERE IS NO CONSENSUS ON IT YET. 84
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 115 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL BE
THE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SCATTERED CU AND MAINLY BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LARGE
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVEN RIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE SHORT WAVE ENTERS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLE. THE
BEST WINDOW FOR STORMS AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES WILL BE BETWEEN
13 AND 17Z THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LATER WINDOW IN WACO.
A SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY BETWEEN 7
AND 14 KNOTS.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 75 88 73 87 73 / 70 80 80 50 10
WACO, TX 75 89 75 88 72 / 30 60 80 50 20
PARIS, TX 67 83 69 83 70 / 40 90 90 60 20
DENTON, TX 73 85 71 86 71 / 70 90 90 50 10
MCKINNEY, TX 71 86 72 86 70 / 60 90 90 50 10
DALLAS, TX 74 88 73 87 73 / 70 80 80 50 20
TERRELL, TX 72 89 73 88 71 / 50 80 90 60 20
CORSICANA, TX 73 89 73 86 72 / 30 60 80 50 20
TEMPLE, TX 74 89 75 86 73 / 20 50 60 50 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 86 70 85 70 / 80 80 80 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ091>095-101>107-117>123.
&&
$$
/
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC TO THE OHIO VALLEY. WISCONSIN
REMAINS ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS TROUGH...WITH COOLER AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS LEADING TO A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING SHOWED A CAP LOCATED AT 750MB WHICH
HAS PREVENTED ANY SHOWER FORMATION SO FAR DESPITE BUBBLY LOOKING
CU. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES AWAY AND TEMPS
MODERATE...CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN
THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE STATE OF
WISCONSIN. DIURNAL CU WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MID-EVENING WHICH
WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALONG
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PLUMMET INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS. WARMER LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY...A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR...BUT MODIFYING
SOUNDINGS YIELD LESS THAN 100 J/KG OF ML CAPE. PLUS...A CAP AROUND
650MB WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. SO THINKING SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CU FIELD AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL POP UP LATE
IN THE MORNING. BUT DO NOT SEE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO INTRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
MEAN FLOW THRU THE END OF THE WEEK TO BE MAINLY ZONAL WITH THE
MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES RUNNING ACROSS EXTREME SRN CANADA. A
STRONG UPR TROF IS THEN FCST TO DIG S-SE ALONG BC/PACIFIC NW NEXT
WEEK AND ALLOW A PROMINENT UPR HI OVER THE ROCKIES TO BUILD EWD
ACROS THE PLAINS. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE TO BE WHETHER THIS UPR HI
CAN BUILD TOWARD WI OR WL WEAK UPR TROFFINESS DEVELOP OVER THE
E-CNTRL CONUS BETWEEN THE UPR HI TO OUR WEST AND AN UPR HI OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS DIFFERENCE IN SCENARIOS WL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE NOT ONLY OUR PCPN CHCS FOR NEXT WEEK...BUT ALSO HOW WARM
WE CAN GET.
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WL DISSIPATE ANY REMAINING CU FIELD...
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NE WI THU NGT.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT (SW AT 10-15
KTS)...THUS ONE MORE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SHAPING
UP. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG OVER LOW-LYING
AREAS LATE AT NGT AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD THIS TO THE FCST.
FOR NOW...HAVE FOCUSED ON THE COOL TEMPS WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE LWR TO MID 50S NORTH...GENERALLY MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SOME OF THE
MDLS CONT TO TRY AND GENERATE LIGHT PCPN ACROSS PARTS OF WI ON
FRI. THIS APPEARS MAINLY DUE TO A FASTER INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE UPR 50S. THERE IS NO
DISCERNABLE SURFACE BOUNDARY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OR JET MAX
EVIDENT TO TRIGGER ANY PCPN...THUS LEAVING WEAK WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO CREATE PCPN. JUST DO NOT SEE ENUF TO WARRANT A CHANGE
TO A DRY FCST...THUS HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FCST WHEN IT
COMES TO PCPN. MAX TEMPS WL CONT TO SLOWLY WARM WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM 70-75 ALONG LAKE MI...75-80 DEGS OVER INLAND LOCALES.
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FRI EVENING UPON SUNSET AS
DAYTIME HEATING WANES. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP A BIT
BETWEEN HI PRES OVER THE NE CONUS AND A CDFNT SITUATED OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. THIS WL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS FAR AS PREVIOUS
NGTS AS MOST OF NE WI TO SETTLE INTO THE 55-60 DEG RANGE. MUCH
LIKE THU NGT...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND AS THE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. MEAN FLOW IS FCST TO BE NEARLY
ZONAL BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES
RUNNING FROM THE PACIFIC NW E-NE ACROSS SRN CANADA. ON SAT...THE
MDLS DO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING TOWARD NRN SECTIONS OF
THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE CDFNT TO HAVE ESSENTIALLY STALLED OVER
THE NRN PLAINS. MAIN DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF
TO PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH (WRN ONTARIO)...THUS DO NOT SEE ENUF
FORCING TO JUSTIFY A POP FOR SAT. WEAK WAA TO PERSIST...THEREBY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO CONT EDGING UPWARD INTO THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S...BUT COOLER LAKESIDE.
AS THE STRONG UPR TROF DIGS S-SE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THE DOWNSTREAM UPR HI TO EDGE EWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS
AND EXTEND NEWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. ANY WEAK MID-LEVEL
SYSTEMS EJECTING FROM THIS DIGGING UPR TROF SHOULD PASS WELL NW OF
NE WI...LEAVIG A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS
ON SUNDAY WL CREEP UP A BIT MORE WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE
LWR 80S...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MI.
THE FCST BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE UNCERTAIN THE FARTHER WE GET
INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE MDLS ARE DIFFERING ON THE EXTENT OF THE UPR
RDG AND AMOUNT OF UPR TROFFING OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
INITIALLY...THE MDLS DO AGREE THAT THE UPR RDG AXIS TO STILL BE
AIMED TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON MON...THEREFORE KEEPING ANY
TSTM COMPLEXES AWAY. HOWEVER...THE MDLS ARE TRENDING TOWARD
PULLING THE UPR RDG BACK TO THE WEST AND ALLOWING THE MEAN FLOW TO
BEGIN TURNING TO THE NW. THIS WOULD LEAVE NE WI MORE VULNERABLE TO
EITHER A CDFNT OR A SHORTWAVE TROF TO MOVE SE TOWARD THE AREA AND
WHEN COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING WARMTH/MOISTURE...THIS WOULD BRING
INCREASING CHCS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
12Z ECMWF NOW PULLS THE UPR RDG ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE ROCKIES
AND SENDS A CDFNT THRU WI ON TUE. SINCE THIS IS SUCH A CHANGE FROM
ITS PREVIOUS RUN...HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW WHICH
BRINGS 20-30 PERCENT POPS ON TUE AND 20-40 PERCENT POPS ON WED TO
THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH TUE
AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014
A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWLY SHRINKING/
DISSIPATING LATE THIS MORNING OVER NE WISCONSIN. BUT DESPITE THIS
MID-LEVEL DECK BREAKING UP...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL GENERATE A SCT
TO BKN CUMULUS FIELD WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOLIDLY VFR. ANY CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
FLYING FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.
THEN MORE VFR CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY MORNING
WITH HEATING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......MPC