Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/15/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
220 PM MST SUN JUL 13 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY...LIKELY LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A REMNANT MCV...AND ISNT WASTING ANY TIME MOVING TO
THE WEST. STRONG WINDS /BY MONSOON STANDARDS/ OF 15-20KTS WERE NOTED
IN THE 700-500MB LAYER THIS MORNING ON REGIONAL UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
AND THIS CERTAINLY WILL HELP STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...PWATS REMAIN AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS
APPROX 130-140 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR MID JULY. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE
DESERTS...THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS INDICATING AROUND 500 J/KG MLCAPE WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP.
STILL LOOKING AT A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOING TO STICK WITH THE IDEA THAT STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE DESERTS LATER TODAY BASED ON LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED INSTABILITY TRENDS. HRRR...LOCAL WRF
ENSEMBLE...AND RAP ALL INDICATE STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
METRO...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED POPS INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
METRO...COLLIDING OUTFLOWS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN FORCING
MECHANISM. WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN DESERTS SOUTH OF PHOENIX.
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS PWATS WILL CLIMB
SUBSTANTIALLY...REACHING AROUND 2 INCHES BY 12Z MONDAY. AS
ALWAYS...HOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RECOVER AFTER THIS SURGE...HOW
CLOUDY IT WILL BE...ETC...WILL DICTATE JUST HOW ACTIVE THINGS WILL
BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. A SAMPLING OF NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MIX OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS AMONG RECENT RUNS OF HI-RES MODELS AND 4KM
NAM IS THAT STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG THE RIM AND PROPAGATE INTO
THE DESERTS. WITH MLCAPE FORECASTS AROUND 1000 J/KG...STARTING TO
LOOK MORE PROMISING FOR STORMS ACROSS THE METRO. STORMS ON MONDAY
WILL MAINLY PRESENT A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH SUN WILL MANAGE TO PEAK
THROUGH THE CLOUDS WHICH COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DOWN TREND THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL STILL PEAK OUT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH SOME
PLACES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BREAKING
THE 110 DEGREE MARK. AFTER THE SURGE OF MOISTURE TONIGHT...MONDAY/S
HIGHS WILL TAKE A BIG HIT...POSSIBLY NOT EVEN BREAKING 100 ACROSS
SOME LOWER DESERT SPOTS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH STORM AND CLOUD
COVERAGE THERE ENDS UP BEING.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ARIZONA INTO
TUESDAY...BUT MODELS ARE NOW POINTING TOWARD AN EARLIER TIMEFRAME
FOR DRY AIR WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF OUR WESTERN ZONES DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WORKING IN...BUT SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS ARIZONA.
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN ON TUESDAY WHILE SETTLING SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA OR
NORTHERN MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHIFT WILL SWITCH OUR FLOW OUT
THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL QUICKLY SCOUR OUT MOISTURE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE
EUROPEAN AND THE GFS ARE POINTING AT A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND FOR
LATE THIS WEEK...LIKELY RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE MONSOON ACTIVITY
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE LIKELY SOUTHWESTERLY DRYING FLOW...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
QUITE A BIT STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE DRIEST DAY WILL END UP BEING
EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...BEFORE SOME MOISTURE LIKELY STARTS
SEEPING BACK INTO OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GET A
BUMP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT FORECAST 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ONLY IN
THE 590-592DM RANGE WHICH WOULD GIVE US HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...MOSTLY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS BUT WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 23Z EXTENDING
OUT TO 04Z. GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND
BLOWING DUST ALSO A POSSIBLE THREAT. WINDS COULD BE VARIABLE AND
GUSTY UNTIL 04Z GOING BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SOUTHERLY WINDS UNTIL 02Z WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OTHER THAN A
CHANCE OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS. NO SIG AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AIR WILL ALREADY BE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE DISTRICT TUESDAY...SPREADING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CNTRL ARIZONA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RELEGATED TO GILA COUNTY...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS...THOUGH SOME STRONGER GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN GILA COUNTY. WITH THE DRYING
TREND...MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER TEENS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...WATERS
FIRE WEATHER...MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1217 PM MST SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY...LIKELY LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A REMNANT MCV...AND ISNT WASTING ANY TIME MOVING TO
THE WEST. STRONG WINDS /BY MONSOON STANDARDS/ OF 15-20KTS WERE NOTED
IN THE 700-500MB LAYER THIS MORNING ON REGIONAL UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
AND THIS CERTAINLY WILL HELP STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...PWATS REMAIN AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS
APPROX 130-140 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR MID JULY. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE
DESERTS...THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS INDICATING AROUND 500 J/KG MLCAPE WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP.
STILL LOOKING AT A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOING TO STICK WITH THE IDEA THAT STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE DESERTS LATER TODAY BASED ON LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED INSTABILITY TRENDS. HRRR...LOCAL WRF
ENSEMBLE...AND RAP ALL INDICATE STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
METRO...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED POPS INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
METRO...COLLIDING OUTFLOWS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN FORCING
MECHANISM. WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN DESERTS SOUTH OF PHOENIX.
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS PWATS WILL CLIMB
SUBSTANTIALLY...REACHING AROUND 2 INCHES BY 12Z MONDAY. AS
ALWAYS...HOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RECOVER AFTER THIS SURGE...HOW
CLOUDY IT WILL BE...ETC...WILL DICTATE JUST HOW ACTIVE THINGS WILL
BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. A SAMPLING OF NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MIX OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS AMONG RECENT RUNS OF HI-RES MODELS AND 4KM
NAM IS THAT STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG THE RIM AND PROPAGATE INTO
THE DESERTS. WITH MLCAPE FORECASTS AROUND 1000 J/KG...STARTING TO
LOOK MORE PROMISING FOR STORMS ACROSS THE METRO. STORMS ON MONDAY
WILL MAINLY PRESENT A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH SUN WILL MANAGE TO PEAK
THROUGH THE CLOUDS WHICH COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DOWN TREND THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL STILL PEAK OUT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH SOME
PLACES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BREAKING
THE 110 DEGREE MARK. AFTER THE SURGE OF MOISTURE TONIGHT...MONDAY/S
HIGHS WILL TAKE A BIG HIT...POSSIBLY NOT EVEN BREAKING 100 ACROSS
SOME LOWER DESERT SPOTS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH STORM AND CLOUD
COVERAGE THERE ENDS UP BEING.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ARIZONA INTO
TUESDAY...BUT MODELS ARE NOW POINTING TOWARD AN EARLIER TIMEFRAME
FOR DRY AIR WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF OUR WESTERN ZONES DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WORKING IN...BUT SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS ARIZONA.
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN ON TUESDAY WHILE SETTLING SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA OR
NORTHERN MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHIFT WILL SWITCH OUR FLOW OUT
THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL QUICKLY SCOUR OUT MOISTURE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE
EUROPEAN AND THE GFS ARE POINTING AT A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND FOR
LATE THIS WEEK...LIKELY RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE MONSOON ACTIVITY
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE LIKELY SOUTHWESTERLY DRYING FLOW...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
QUITE A BIT STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE DRIEST DAY WILL END UP BEING
EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...BEFORE SOME MOISTURE LIKELY STARTS
SEEPING BACK INTO OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GET A
BUMP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT FORECAST 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ONLY IN
THE 590-592DM RANGE WHICH WOULD GIVE US HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION/WIND SHIFTS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS PRESUMABLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS CREATE A CHAOTIC PATTERN AS THE SFC. EXPECTING AN ELY WIND
COMPONENT TO PREVAIL INTO THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CHANCE
THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON WEST WIND NEVER MATERIALIZES. STRONGER OUTFLOW
WINDS...BLOWING DUST...AND ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY HAVE HIGH IMPACT
FOR TERMINALS WITH MVFR OR LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AROUND AND AFTER
00Z. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING IS FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AS
A TAF GROUPING AT THIS TIME...THOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONFIDENCE ONCE THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. SCT SHOWERS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AFFECTING LATE NIGHT TRAFFIC.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AS MOISTURE
SURGES NORTH FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS SURGE MAY CAUSE A
PERIOD OF GUSTINESS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS
POTENTIALLY REACHING 25KT. THOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN THIS TAF PACKAGE
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...SHRA/TSRA MAY RAPIDLY DEVELOP LATE NIGHT AND
IMPACT TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY REDUCED VSBY IN
MDT/HVY RAIN.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AIR WILL ALREADY BE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE DISTRICT TUESDAY...SPREADING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CNTRL ARIZONA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RELEGATED TO GILA COUNTY...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS...THOUGH SOME STRONGER GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN GILA COUNTY. WITH THE DRYING
TREND...MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER TEENS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1007 AM MST SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE MOISTURE
SURGE WILL OVERTAKE ALL OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A DECAYING COMPLEX OF STORMS
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH ANOTHER WEAK CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. PWATS PER 12Z PSR AND TWC SOUNDINGS REVEAL VALUES
AROUND 1.5-1.6 INCHES...THIS MATCHES WELL WITH BLENDED TPW IMAGERY
AND GPS IPW READINGS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
MIX OUT THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF THE PHOENIX AREA STILL SEEING
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DESPITE THE INCREASED
MOISTURE...DESERT TEMPS HAVE HAD NO PROBLEM WHATSOEVER CLIMBING INTO
THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AS OF 17Z.
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WILL
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
INITIATE ALONG THE RIM AND CARRY WESTWARD INTO THE DESERTS. HOWEVER
UNLIKE YESTERDAY...THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH AROUND THE PHOENIX AREA /ALBEIT ONLY 200-300 J/KG OF
MLCAPE...MUCH LESSER VALUES WEST OF THE METRO/. GIVEN MODEST MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 700-500MB WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-20KTS...FEEL
IT PRUDENT TO RAISE POPS A BIT ACROSS THE METRO SINCE STORMS HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE OF MAKING IT INTO THE DESERTS. HRRR...LOCAL WRF
ENSEMBLE...AND RAP ALL INDICATE STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
METRO...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED POPS INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
METRO...COLLIDING OUTFLOWS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN FORCING
MECHANISM. THUS CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
STORMS THIS EVENING IS LOW. WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN
DESERTS SOUTH OF PHOENIX.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD LATER THIS EVENING...LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE SURGE TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY MIDNIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE MOISTURE SURGE
AND PROBABLE HELP FROM THE INVERTED TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. MONDAY WILL LIKELY TURN OUT TO BE A FAIRLY WET DAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REACH ABOVE 2 INCHES CENTERED OVER YUMA. STORMS ON MONDAY WILL
MAINLY PRESENT A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BUT THERE
IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH SUN WILL MANAGE TO PEAK THROUGH
THE CLOUDS WHICH COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DOWN TREND THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL STILL PEAK OUT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH SOME
PLACES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BREAKING
THE 110 DEGREE MARK. AFTER THE SURGE OF MOISTURE TONIGHT...MONDAY/S
HIGHS WILL TAKE A BIG HIT...POSSIBLY NOT EVEN BREAKING 100 ACROSS
SOME LOWER DESERT SPOTS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH STORM AND CLOUD
COVERAGE THERE ENDS UP BEING.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ARIZONA INTO
TUESDAY...BUT MODELS ARE NOW POINTING TOWARD AN EARLIER TIMEFRAME
FOR DRY AIR WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF OUR WESTERN ZONES DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WORKING IN...BUT SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS ARIZONA.
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN ON TUESDAY WHILE SETTLING SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA OR
NORTHERN MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHIFT WILL SWITCH OUR FLOW OUT
THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL QUICKLY SCOUR OUT MOISTURE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE
EUROPEAN AND THE GFS ARE POINTING AT A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND FOR
LATE THIS WEEK...LIKELY RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE MONSOON ACTIVITY
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE LIKELY SOUTHWESTERLY DRYING FLOW...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
QUITE A BIT STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE DRIEST DAY WILL END UP BEING
EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...BEFORE SOME MOISTURE LIKELY STARTS
SEEPING BACK INTO OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GET A
BUMP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT FORECAST 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ONLY IN
THE 590-592DM RANGE WHICH WOULD GIVE US HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION/WIND SHIFTS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS PRESUMABLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS CREATE A CHAOTIC PATTERN AS THE SFC. EXPECTING AN ELY WIND
COMPONENT TO PREVAIL INTO THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CHANCE
THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON WEST WIND NEVER MATERIALIZES. STRONGER OUTFLOW
WINDS...BLOWING DUST...AND ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY HAVE HIGH IMPACT
FOR TERMINALS WITH MVFR OR LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AROUND AND AFTER
00Z. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING IS FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AS
A TAF GROUPING AT THIS TIME...THOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONFIDENCE ONCE THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. SCT SHOWERS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AFFECTING LATE NIGHT TRAFFIC.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AS MOISTURE
SURGES NORTH FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS SURGE MAY CAUSE A
PERIOD OF GUSTINESS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS
POTENTIALLY REACHING 25KT. THOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN THIS TAF PACKAGE
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...SHRA/TSRA MAY RAPIDLY DEVELOP LATE NIGHT AND
IMPACT TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY REDUCED VSBY IN
MDT/HVY RAIN.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AIR WILL ALREADY BE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE DISTRICT TUESDAY...SPREADING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CNTRL ARIZONA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RELEGATED TO GILA COUNTY...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS...THOUGH SOME STRONGER GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN GILA COUNTY. WITH THE DRYING
TREND...MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER TEENS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
935 PM MST SAT JUL 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE WESTWARD BACK OVER THE LOWER
DESERTS ON SUNDAY...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THE MOISTURE
SURGE WILL OVERTAKE ALL OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING SAW THE BEGINNING OF A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE
MONSOON PATTERN. CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLY OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM
AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW HELPED MAKE
FOR A VALIANT ATTEMPT FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER
DESERTS. AN EXTREMELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND STABLE AIR IN-PLACE
HOWEVER HELPED TO ERODE THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE IT COULD PUSH VERY FAR
OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. STRONG GUSTY WINDS HOWEVER DID DEVELOP BEHIND
A COUPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND PUSHED SOME BLOWING DUST FROM PINAL
COUNTY INTO THE PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA. THE DUST WAS NOT AS DENSE
AS THAT GENERATED BY RECENT STORMS HOWEVER AND THOUGH VISIBILITIES
DID DROP LOCALLY BELOW ONE HALF MILE...THESE RESTRICTIONS DID NOT
LAST LONG. VERY LITTLE RAIN FELL IN THE LOWER DESERTS...THOUGH
DEWPOINTS DID RISE CONSIDERABLY FROM PHOENIX ON EASTWARD.
CURRENTLY ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER GILA AND YAVAPAI
COUNTIES. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO
NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY. BIGGEST THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS FROM ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
PRESENTLY THE HRRR HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING. THIS
MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE LOWER
DESERTS THROUGH AROUND 2 AM / 9Z. DECIDED THEREFORE TO KEEP SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THAT TIME.
SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING OCCURRED IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHEN THE BOUNDARIES MOVED THROUGH. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS THEREFORE TO SUNDAY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR
COOLER EXPECTED READINGS.
TOMORROW AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE ON TRACK AS MORE ACTIVE DAYS. SUNDAY
MIGHT NOT BE QUITE AS ACTIVE HOWEVER IF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS LINGERS
OVERHEAD FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST SAT JUL 12 2014
STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX...WITH REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING STORMS FROM NEAR
PAYSON TO SAN CARLOS AS OF 19Z. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE DESERTS...ITS
A VERY TYPICAL MID JULY DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 100S. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT QUITE A BIT SINCE THIS MORNING
WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND THE 110 DEGREE MARK STILL LOOK ON TARGET FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND NO LATE-DAY ADJUSTMENTS APPEAR NECESSARY.
12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STORMS WILL FORM NORTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PROPAGATE OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO A
LARGELY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE DESERTS. MLCAPES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND ZERO THANKS MOSTLY TO MIXING RATIOS ONLY
AROUND 5-6 G/KG. THERE IS A VERY NARROW SLIVER OF CAPE FORECAST FROM
AROUND 600-500MB SO IN THEORY THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS THAT
DEVELOP AS BOUNDARIES COLLIDE...BUT THESE WOULD BE EXTREMELY SHORT
LIVED. WINDS AND DUST WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ACROSS THE DESERTS
TODAY AND I WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN THE GRIDS MAINLY
FOR THE EAST VALLEY AND PINAL COUNTY.
THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH STORMS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST AND
PROPAGATE INTO THE DESERTS. UNLIKE TODAY...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST
SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA ALTHOUGH
MLCAPES BARELY CREEP ABOVE 100 J/KG. POPS FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE FOR TODAY WITH DUST AND WINDS ONCE AGAIN
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD AGAIN INITIATE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FIRST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILES AND INCREASED INSTABILITY WE SHOULD SEE SOME
STORMS SURVIVE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR OUTFLOW DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG WINDS.
BY MONDAY THE FULL FORCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA INTO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. PWATS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRESENT MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING THREAT AND SLIGHTLY LESS OF A STRONG WIND THREAT. THE
POP FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BLANKETS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH BETTER CHANCES OF BEING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER SHIFTS FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN
EARLY IN THE WEEK TO MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA...WE WILL LOSE
OUR STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE. EVEN THOUGH THE MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT CUT-OFF...THE REMAINING LEFT OVER MOISTURE
ACROSS ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS
MAINLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS DRIER
AIR MARCHING ACROSS ARIZONA FROM THE WEST STARTING THURSDAY WHILE
THE EUROPEAN IS A BIT SLOWER AND RETAINS MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS AND COME UP WITH
FORECAST POPS MAINLY FOCUSED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...THUNDERSTORMS
AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL KEEP BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES OVER MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BE AOA 15 KFT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 5 TO
10 KTS...THOUGH DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE AND DICTATED BY
BOUNDARIES THAT PROPAGATE FROM DEVELOPING STORMS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
HIGH CLOUDINESS AOA 25 KFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE AND LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A SURGE OF RENEWED MONSOON MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE DISTRICT EARLY
IN THE WEEK LEADING TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...HIGHER HUMIDITIES...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WETTING RAIN WILL OCCUR
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH CHANCES GENERALLY TAPERING DOWN LATER IN
THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR ONCE AGAIN FILTERS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS...HOWEVER
SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL GENERALLY ONLY
FALL INTO A 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY....ALBEIT LOWER HUMIDITIES CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MCLANE/LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1142 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014
UPDATE ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH...SOME CONVECTION IS ALREADY STARTING
OVER THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS DRYING ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO MOVING
SOUTHWARD. SUSPECT THIS IS SOME SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
IN CENTRAL WYOMING...WHERE SOME CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEGINNING.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL TEND TO CAP CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND NEARBY PLAINS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE CURRENT 12Z 4KM
NMM WRF WERE THE MOST ZEALOUS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
IN THE GRIDS...INCREASED SOME POPS IN THE EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR. WITH SOME DRYING ALOFT...PRECIPITABLE WATERS HAVE
MODESTLY DECREASED FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THERE STILL IS ENOUGH LOWER
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A
SIZABLE PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY...AND AMOUNTS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
LESS. --PGW--
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014
...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES TODAY...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PAC NORTHWEST AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW IS SPINNING JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. KPUX RADAR INDICATING AN MCV SPINNING ACROSS THE
FAR SE PLAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SLOWLY DIMINISHING AT THIS
TIME.
DUAL POL RADAR ESTIMATES ARE INDICATING LAST NIGHTS SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS DROUGHT RAVAGED PORTIONS OF THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY...ALONG WITH A POCKET OF RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES IN
SOUTHWESTERN OTERO COUNTY...WHERE LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS ISSUED REVERSE
911 CALLS FOR PEOPLES LIVING ON AND ALONG TIMPAS CREEK...WHICH HAS
BEEN REPORTED TO BE 20 TO 30 FT WIDE IN SPOTS SOUTH OF SWINK. KPUX
RADAR IS ALSO ESTIMATING MORE SPOTTY 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM YESTERDAYS
STORMS ACROSS FREMONT...TELLER...EL PASO...PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE PERSISTING ACROSS GREAT BASIN
AND PAC NORTHWEST AS THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW SLOWLY DIGS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY TRANSLATING DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A SECONDARY SURGE
OF COOL AIR BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN
COLORADO. SOME DRIER AIR WITHIN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO
PUSH THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...PRECIP WATERS ARE
PROGGED TO REMAIN HIGH (1.5 TO 2 TIMES NORMAL VALUES) ACROSS THE
AREA WITH READINGS BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES AND 1.5 INCHES...GREATEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST HIGHER RES MODELS COULD BE PICKING
UP ON DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
MCV AS THEY KEEP MOST CONVECTION OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT ANY RATE...WITH STRONG JULY SOLAR
HEATING AND AMPLE MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING SLOWLY SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WITH THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED FLOW ALOFT...STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING A TAD FASTER THAN YESTERDAY...THOUGH WILL STILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR. THIS...ALONG WITH WET SOILS FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO INCREASED FLASH FLOODING AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE EASTERN MTS AND ADJACENT PLAINS FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT. HAVE
INCLUDED CROWELY AND OTERO COUNTIES IN THE WATCH WITH THE ONGOING
FLOODING AT THIS TIME. STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW TO WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014
...WET AND STORMY PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETREAT THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
MON AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A RENEWED
WESTWARD SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NEAR 60F DEWPOINTS REACHING THE
I-25 CORRIDOR MON EVENING. EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO MON NIGHT...AND WHILE STORM MOTION WILL
BE A LITTLE FASTER AS STEERING WINDS INCREASE...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE INTO THE 40-50 KT RANGE. MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE NM BORDER AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH INTO ERN NM/TEX PANH.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AGAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
TUE AS CAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/K OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS EVEN GREATER
THAN MON AS 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO OVER 50 KTS...WITH
ENVIRONMENT LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS. OF
COURSE...MON NIGHT MCS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL PLAY A LARGE
ROLE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TUE. MODELS SUGGEST FAIRLY LARGE
MCS THEN DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE KS BORDER TUE NIGHT...AS STRONG
LLJ KEEPS CONVECTION GOING WELL INTO THE NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE PATTERN WED...WITH EARLY MORNING COLD POOL BEHIND DEPARTING
MCS...BEFORE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AGAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH STORMS MIGRATING ON TO THE PLAINS IN THE EVENING.
FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY
MON-WED...THOUGH STORM/RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL BE LESS HERE THAN
FARTHER EAST.
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT FINALLY BEGINS TO DRIVE SOME DRIER AIR
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE FROM THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...EXPECT TO HANG ON TO AT LEAST SOME MODEST
DIURNAL CONVECTION MANY AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES MON...WITH SOME
COOLING BOTH TUE/WED AS HEIGHTS FALL AND RAIN COOLED AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION. GRADUALLY WARMING TREND THEN EXPECTED FROM THU
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014
ANOTHER DAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND ANTICIPATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES. MAIN
AVIATION THREATS FROM STORMS WILL GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. MOST LIKELY PLACE TO GET
REDUCED FLIGHT RULES WILL BE KCOS. FOR TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE WEAK
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT KCOS AND KPUB AND DO NOT EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS
DESPITE MOIST LOWER LEVELS. ON MONDAY...MORE OF THE SAME WITH
STORMS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. --PGW--
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HIGH TDY THROUGH WED...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL RATES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AS AIR MASS SLOWLY DRYS OUT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>089-093-
094.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PGW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PGW
HYDROLOGY...PETERSEN/MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1027 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
SHOWERS ENDING...AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE IN THE DAY INTO
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN AND
CENTRAL TACONICS UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY...
CONVECTION HAS BASICALLY REMAINED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...JUST GRAZING THE EXTREME SE PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD A SHORT-WAVE...AND A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE ACTIVITY HAS BASICALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE FURTHER REDUCED POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE OVERNIGHT...WHILE
HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER AND HAVE
KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER.
SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT ARE APPROACHING THE
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
A CUT- OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SEVERE THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED TO 500-1000 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RAP
MESOANALYIS. THE SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 3-KM COMP RES HRRR AND THE
NAM. THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT HAVE BEEN KEPT UP EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN TACONICS... BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THESE AREAS ARE IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS /JUST
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION/ AND THE BERKSHIRES FOR POTENTIAL
TRAINING STORMS...INTENSE RAINFALL RATES...AND SATURATED SOILS
FROM YESTERDAY. SRN VT COULD ALSO GET SOME HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT
VERY LITTLE FELL YESTERDAY. FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE
TOMORROW-TOMORROW NIGHT THERE.
PWATS WILL BE ON THE RISE AFTER LOWERING CONSIDERABLY TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH LAST NIGHT. PWATS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE
1.5 TO 2.0+ IN RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE SULTRY IN THE STICKY AIR
MASS WITH GENERALLY MID 60S TO NEAR 70F WITH SOME SPOTTY U50S TO
L60S OVER THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BTWN 12Z-18Z OVER W-CNTRL NY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OF 100-120 KTS REMAINING UPSTREAM OVER ERN OH...WRN PA AND
WRN NY.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LOOKS TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WHERE WITH SOME SFC HEATING AN IMPRESSIVE
SBCAPE AXIS OF 1000-2000 J/KG SETS UP WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 40-50 KTS ACCORDING TO THE GFS. THE NAM HAS LESS
INSTABILITY WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG. A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OF
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE THAT COULD ORIENT INTO A
LINE IN THE SW FLOW WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STILL LOOK WEAK AT LESS THAN 6 C/KM. ALSO THE 0-1 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS OVER THE SRN EXTREME WITH LOW
LCL HEIGHTS. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS
AND AN ISOLD TORNADO TOO. AGAIN...THIS WOULD BE IN THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT CORRIDOR.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BE IN PLACE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AN IMPRESSIVE THETA-E RIDGE OF
330-338 K WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA AT H850. SOME TRAINING
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE S/SW FLOW AS THE H850 FLOW INCREASES
TO 25-35 KTS AT H850 SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXPANDED INTO SRN VT WITH CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE LATEST RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE GRAPHIC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCEEDING THE FFG VALUES FOR ALL OF WRN NEW ENGLAND PRIOR TO
00Z/WED...AS WELL AS SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN
THE MID 70S TO L80S.
TUESDAY NIGHT...A PERIOD OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK
SFC WAVE MAY MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ON THE TIMING. THE THETA-E RIDGE LINGERS THE
LONGEST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST OF VALUES OF 335 K
AND HIGHER AT H850. STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS WHERE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF SRN
NY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
POPS WERE GRADUALLY REDUCED FROM NW TO SE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U50S OVER THE WRN MOST
ZONES WITH 60S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS EASTWARD.
WED-WED NIGHT...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY IN THE MORNING...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS MAY POP UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING. DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. MAY TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH M70S TO NEAR 80F IN MANY OF THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER WX WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F...EXCEPT U40S AND
L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE WEATHER. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION AND
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN FAR WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE
LOWER 80S...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A CONSENSUS IN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE THAT UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AND GREAT LAKES AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE
AS THE THE TIMING OF THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT...AND THIS FAR OUT...CANNOT GET TO SPECIFIC. SO...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. THE TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL AIDED BY THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.
AT THIS TIME...THE FOCUS FOR THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO TONIGHT...KPOU AND KPSF.
WHILE KALB AND KGFL COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR MVFR AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS AND VIS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT KPOU AND KPSF WHICH HAVE
INDICATED WITH SCATTERED 700 FT CLOUDS. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR SHOULD RETURN BY AFTERNOON
AS CONVECTION FIRES UP. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO
TIME THUNDERSTORMS AT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES AS THE MODELS ARE A BIT
DIFFERENT WITH TIMING SO HAVE USED A PROB30 TO ADDRESS TH THREAT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WEAKENS TONIGHT AND SHOULD BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AT
KPOU...KPSF AND KGFL. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WIND DIRECTION AND INTENSITY WILL VARY IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
SHOWERS ENDING...AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE IN THE DAY INTO
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT 85 TO 100 PERCENT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND ONLY LOWER TO 55 TO 85 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
TACONICS...AND ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA ALREADY RECEIVED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-3+
INCHES YESTERDAY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SE CATSKILLS...AND NW CT. AN ADDITIONAL 1.5 TO 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WATCH AREA.
NO MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD AT THIS TIME...BUT
PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC BASIN MAY GET IN THE ALERT STAGE.
THIS REGION WILL ALSO REMAIN IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO DEEPER
MOISTURE...WITH PERSISTENT PWAT/S NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
ALSO...MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WATCH AREA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES
OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE. SOME RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED ONE INCH/HOUR.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...WITH LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS MOST AT RISK.
OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST. IF THE AXIS OF MOST PERSISTENT
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS FURTHER N AND W...THEN THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER IN TIME.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK...AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS
TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ058>061-
063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
811 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
SHOWERS ENDING...AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE IN THE DAY INTO
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
VERMONT. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN AND
CENTRAL TACONICS UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY...
AS OF 753 PM EDT...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH OVER EXTREME SRN NY...ERN
PA...CT...NJ ...AND THE DELMARVA REGION. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE JUST GRAZING THE SE EXTREME OF THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD A SHORT-WAVE...AND A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OTHERS ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT HAS REACHED NRN AND WRN NEW NY. THE POPS HAVE
BEEN REDUCED TO SLIGHT AND LOW CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION TONIGHT.
SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT ARE APPROACHING THE
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
A CUT- OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SEVERE THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED TO 500-1000 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RAP
MESOANALYIS. THE SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 3-KM COMP RES HRRR AND THE
NAM. THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT HAVE BEEN KEPT UP EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN TACONICS... BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THESE AREAS ARE IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS /JUST
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION/ AND THE BERKSHIRES FOR POTENTIAL
TRAINING STORMS...INTENSE RAINFALL RATES...AND SATURATED SOILS
FROM YESTERDAY. SRN VT COULD ALSO GET SOME HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT
VERY LITTLE FELL YESTERDAY. FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE
TOMORROW-TOMORROW NIGHT THERE.
PWATS WILL BE ON THE RISE AFTER LOWERING CONSIDERABLY TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH LAST NIGHT. PWATS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE
1.5 TO 2.0+ IN RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE SULTRY IN THE STICKY AIR
MASS WITH GENERALLY MID 60S TO NEAR 70F WITH SOME SPOTTY U50S TO
L60S OVER THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BTWN 12Z-18Z OVER W-CNTRL NY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OF 100-120 KTS REMAINING UPSTREAM OVER ERN OH...WRN PA AND
WRN NY.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LOOKS TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WHERE WITH SOME SFC HEATING AN IMPRESSIVE
SBCAPE AXIS OF 1000-2000 J/KG SETS UP WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 40-50 KTS ACCORDING TO THE GFS. THE NAM HAS LESS
INSTABILITY WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG. A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OF
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE THAT COULD ORIENT INTO A
LINE IN THE SW FLOW WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STILL LOOK WEAK AT LESS THAN 6 C/KM. ALSO THE 0-1 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS OVER THE SRN EXTREME WITH LOW
LCL HEIGHTS. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS
AND AN ISOLD TORNADO TOO. AGAIN...THIS WOULD BE IN THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT CORRIDOR.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BE IN PLACE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AN IMPRESSIVE THETA-E RIDGE OF
330-338 K WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA AT H850. SOME TRAINING
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE S/SW FLOW AS THE H850 FLOW INCREASES
TO 25-35 KTS AT H850 SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXPANDED INTO SRN VT WITH CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE LATEST RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE GRAPHIC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCEEDING THE FFG VALUES FOR ALL OF WRN NEW ENGLAND PRIOR TO
00Z/WED...AS WELL AS SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN
THE MID 70S TO L80S.
TUESDAY NIGHT...A PERIOD OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK
SFC WAVE MAY MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ON THE TIMING. THE THETA-E RIDGE LINGERS THE
LONGEST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST OF VALUES OF 335 K
AND HIGHER AT H850. STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS WHERE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF SRN
NY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
POPS WERE GRADUALLY REDUCED FROM NW TO SE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U50S OVER THE WRN MOST
ZONES WITH 60S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS EASTWARD.
WED-WED NIGHT...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY IN THE MORNING...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS MAY POP UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING. DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. MAY TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH M70S TO NEAR 80F IN MANY OF THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER WX WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F...EXCEPT U40S AND
L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE WEATHER. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION AND
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN FAR WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE
LOWER 80S...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A CONSENSUS IN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE THAT UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AND GREAT LAKES AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE
AS THE THE TIMING OF THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT...AND THIS FAR OUT...CANNOT GET TO SPECIFIC. SO...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. THE TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL AIDED BY THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.
AT THIS TIME...THE FOCUS FOR THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO TONIGHT...KPOU AND KPSF.
WHILE KALB AND KGFL COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR MVFR AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS AND VIS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT KPOU AND KPSF WHICH HAVE
INDICATED WITH SCATTERED 700 FT CLOUDS. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR SHOULD RETURN BY AFTERNOON
AS CONVECTION FIRES UP. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO
TIME THUNDERSTORMS AT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES AS THE MODELS ARE A BIT
DIFFERENT WITH TIMING SO HAVE USED A PROB30 TO ADDRESS TH THREAT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WEAKENS TONIGHT AND SHOULD BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AT
KPOU...KPSF AND KGFL. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WIND DIRECTION AND INTENSITY WILL VARY IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
SHOWERS ENDING...AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE IN THE DAY INTO
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT 85 TO 100 PERCENT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND ONLY LOWER TO 55 TO 85 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
TACONICS...AND ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA ALREADY RECEIVED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-3+
INCHES YESTERDAY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SE CATSKILLS...AND NW CT. AN ADDITIONAL 1.5 TO 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WATCH AREA.
NO MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD AT THIS TIME...BUT
PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC BASIN MAY GET IN THE ALERT STAGE.
THIS REGION WILL ALSO REMAIN IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO DEEPER
MOISTURE...WITH PERSISTENT PWAT/S NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
ALSO...MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WATCH AREA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES
OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE. SOME RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED ONE INCH/HOUR.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...WITH LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS MOST AT RISK.
OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST. IF THE AXIS OF MOST PERSISTENT
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS FURTHER N AND W...THEN THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER IN TIME.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK...AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS
TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ058>061-
063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
SHOWERS ENDING...AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE IN THE DAY INTO
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
VERMONT. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN AND
CENTRAL TACONICS UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY...
AS OF 753 PM EDT...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH OVER EXTREME SRN NY...ERN
PA...CT...NJ ...AND THE DELMARVA REGION. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE JUST GRAZING THE SE EXTREME OF THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD A SHORT-WAVE...AND A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OTHERS ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT HAS REACHED NRN AND WRN NEW NY. THE POPS HAVE
BEEN REDUCED TO SLIGHT AND LOW CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION TONIGHT.
SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT ARE APPROACHING THE
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
A CUT- OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SEVERE THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED TO 500-1000 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RAP
MESOANALYIS. THE SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 3-KM COMP RES HRRR AND THE
NAM. THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT HAVE BEEN KEPT UP EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN TACONICS... BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THESE AREAS ARE IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS /JUST
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION/ AND THE BERKSHIRES FOR POTENTIAL
TRAINING STORMS...INTENSE RAINFALL RATES...AND SATURATED SOILS
FROM YESTERDAY. SRN VT COULD ALSO GET SOME HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT
VERY LITTLE FELL YESTERDAY. FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE
TOMORROW-TOMORROW NIGHT THERE.
PWATS WILL BE ON THE RISE AFTER LOWERING CONSIDERABLY TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH LAST NIGHT. PWATS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE
1.5 TO 2.0+ IN RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE SULTRY IN THE STICKY AIR
MASS WITH GENERALLY MID 60S TO NEAR 70F WITH SOME SPOTTY U50S TO
L60S OVER THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BTWN 12Z-18Z OVER W-CNTRL NY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OF 100-120 KTS REMAINING UPSTREAM OVER ERN OH...WRN PA AND
WRN NY.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LOOKS TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WHERE WITH SOME SFC HEATING AN IMPRESSIVE
SBCAPE AXIS OF 1000-2000 J/KG SETS UP WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 40-50 KTS ACCORDING TO THE GFS. THE NAM HAS LESS
INSTABILITY WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG. A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OF
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE THAT COULD ORIENT INTO A
LINE IN THE SW FLOW WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STILL LOOK WEAK AT LESS THAN 6 C/KM. ALSO THE 0-1 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS OVER THE SRN EXTREME WITH LOW
LCL HEIGHTS. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS
AND AN ISOLD TORNADO TOO. AGAIN...THIS WOULD BE IN THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT CORRIDOR.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BE IN PLACE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AN IMPRESSIVE THETA-E RIDGE OF
330-338 K WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA AT H850. SOME TRAINING
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE S/SW FLOW AS THE H850 FLOW INCREASES
TO 25-35 KTS AT H850 SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXPANDED INTO SRN VT WITH CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE LATEST RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE GRAPHIC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCEEDING THE FFG VALUES FOR ALL OF WRN NEW ENGLAND PRIOR TO
00Z/WED...AS WELL AS SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN
THE MID 70S TO L80S.
TUESDAY NIGHT...A PERIOD OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK
SFC WAVE MAY MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ON THE TIMING. THE THETA-E RIDGE LINGERS THE
LONGEST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST OF VALUES OF 335 K
AND HIGHER AT H850. STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS WHERE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF SRN
NY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
POPS WERE GRADUALLY REDUCED FROM NW TO SE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U50S OVER THE WRN MOST
ZONES WITH 60S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS EASTWARD.
WED-WED NIGHT...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY IN THE MORNING...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS MAY POP UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING. DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. MAY TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH M70S TO NEAR 80F IN MANY OF THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER WX WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F...EXCEPT U40S AND
L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE WEATHER. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION AND
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN FAR WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE
LOWER 80S...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A CONSENSUS IN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE THAT UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AND GREAT LAKES AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE
AS THE THE TIMING OF THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT...AND THIS FAR OUT...CANNOT GET TO SPECIFIC. SO...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. THE TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL AIDED BY THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.
AT THIS TIME...THE FOCUS FOR THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO TONIGHT...KPOU AND KPSF.
WHILE KALB AND KGFL COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR MVFR AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS AND VIS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT KPOU AND KPSF WHICH HAVE
INDICATED WITH SCATTERED 700 FT CLOUDS. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR SHOULD RETURN BY AFTERNOON
AS CONVECTION FIRES UP. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO
TIME THUNDERSTORMS AT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES AS THE MODELS ARE A BIT
DIFFERENT WITH TIMING SO HAVE USED A PROB30 TO ADDRESS TH THREAT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WEAKENS TONIGHT AND SHOULD BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AT
KPOU...KPSF AND KGFL. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WIND DIRECTION AND INTENSITY WILL VARY IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
SHOWERS ENDING...AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE IN THE DAY INTO
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT 85 TO 100 PERCENT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND ONLY LOWER TO 55 TO 85 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
TACONICS...AND ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA ALREADY RECEIVED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-3+
INCHES YESTERDAY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SE CATSKILLS...AND NW CT. AN ADDITIONAL 1.5 TO 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WATCH AREA.
NO MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD AT THIS TIME...BUT
PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC BASIN MAY GET IN THE ALERT STAGE.
THIS REGION WILL ALSO REMAIN IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO DEEPER
MOISTURE...WITH PERSISTENT PWAT/S NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
ALSO...MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WATCH AREA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES
OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE. SOME RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED ONE INCH/HOUR.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...WITH LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS MOST AT RISK.
OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST. IF THE AXIS OF MOST PERSISTENT
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS FURTHER N AND W...THEN THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER IN TIME.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK...AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS
TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ058>061-
063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
504 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
YIELDING PERIODS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THIS TIME ALONG WITH A HEAVY
RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
JUST A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES AS
OF LATE AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE WE SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY
IS LIMITED.
THE MAIN CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WAS BACK IN NEW YORK STATE
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING THIS ACTIVITY INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES AFTER 7 OR 8 PM. IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY/SHEAR FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. HOWEVER...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS CAN/T BE RULED OUT IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH PWATS AROUND
2 INCHES. WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS OUR
REGION...SOME MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY TRY TO MAKE IT ONTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE EVENING OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OR WHAT/S LEFT OF IT EXITS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...THERE STILL WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS A RESULT OF SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO THE LOWER 70S AND IT WILL BE MUGGY. IN ADDITION...SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE WITH BEST CHANCE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND/OR EVENING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE***
***HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT***
AN INTERESTING SET UP IN PLACE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT DETAILS/TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN. APPEARS THE
MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/S AND
WHEN/WHERE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.
SOME OF OUR GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF MOST OF THE CONVECTION UNTIL VERY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WHEN THE MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND GETS THINGS GOING CLOSE TO 00Z IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.
OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS BREAKS OUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT EARLIER. WE ARE DEALING WITH A VERY
MOIST/UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND IT WON/T TAKE MUCH HEATING TO GET
SOME CONVECTION GOING. WE SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLIER
THAN SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.
OTHER THAN THE TIMING ISSUES...THE BIG UNCERTAINTY THAT NEEDS TO BE
RESOLVED IS THE AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSULATION. GIVEN PATTERN...EXPECT
TO SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND BUT A FEW PEEKS OF SUN WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE WILL HAVE 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...WE
CAN GET AWAY WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS AND STILL HAVE A SEVERE
THREAT...BUT MORE SUN WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE POTENTIAL. LOOKS LIKE
WE SHOULD SEE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOP...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF
25 TO 35 KNOTS AND PERHAPS LOCALLY OVER 40 KNOTS WHEN THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT...AND 70+ DEWPOINTS.
ALL IN ALL...DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE SHEAR
SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING. PERHAPS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL ENDS UP
IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY/SHEAR
OVERLAP...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ANYWHERE.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR HAIL WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS. IN
ADDITION...0 TO 1 KM HELICITY VALUES MAY EXCEED 100 ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S...AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
IT APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COME MORE WIDESPREAD. PWATS
ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AT 2+ INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BUT
THOUGH THERE IS MORE TIME TO GET A BETTER FEEL ON THE LOCATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* NUMEROUS SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
* SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ON
TUESDAY
* WARM AND VERY HUMID TUESDAY
* IMPROVING WEATHER WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS LATE THIS
WEEK
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH AN ANOMALOUS
TROUGH/CUTOFF COLD POOL MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK.
AS THIS TROUGH EVOLVES INTO THE LONG RANGE TIMEFRAME AND SHIFTS
SLOWLY SE...SURFACE WAVES AND TROUGHS WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN THE
DEVELOPING SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH TROPICAL AIR ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH PWATS
REMAINING IN THE 2.1 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALL
THIS...ALONG WITH THE SW FLOW IN PLACE...CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE
QPF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND 00Z THU IN THE FORECAST...
BUT THAT IS AERIAL COVERAGE. MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LOCALLY
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS.
12Z MODEL CYCLE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT IN VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS LOW PRES WAVE MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT LYING ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING RR QUADRANT OF 120 KT H3
JET PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUE INTO WED...ALONG WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY IN PLACE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SBCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG...AND EVEN 0-1 KM HELICITIES UP TO
AROUND 100 /M2. WILL SEE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. MAY ALSO SEE HAIL
AND...AGAIN...CAN NOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE SPINUP. HOWEVER...THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SOLAR INSULATION...AS THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND. SPC HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY PUSHING THE FRONT E DURING
WEDNESDAY AS THE H5 TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. SOME INSTABILITY WILL LINGER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
THERE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...AND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME HEAVY
RAINERS AS DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WED NIGHT.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
HUMIDITIES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH A POSSIBLE TRAILING H5
SHORT WAVE TRYING TO APPROACH LATE SAT OR SUN. HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS POSSIBLE FEATURE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGH SHOULD KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER...SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE INTERIOR.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CLUSTER OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z.
WHILE SOME SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL PLAIN...BEST SHOT FOR
THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE...SCT
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6Z AND
12Z.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP. WILL KEEP THINGS MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW AND SHOW JUST
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES...EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT....MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY
TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE...POSSIBLE ANYWHERE BUT BEST SHOT MAY BE IN OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES. BIGGEST THREATS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AS FOR SKY/VSBYS OUTSIDE OF
PRECIPITATION VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE DURING THE DAY TUE EXCEPT
LOWER CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR SOUTH COAST. CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUE NIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR TO IFR DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MAINLY BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH SCT TO
NUMEROUS TSTMS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS LIKELY. WILL SEE AREAS OF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIP. SOME GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS LIKELY TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL-E MA/RI. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ACROSS CT VALLEY TUE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY WED. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY
ACROSS CT VALLEY AND SLOWLY PUSHING E DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR MAY
LINGER INTO WED EVENING ACROSS E MA/RI. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN
NORMALLY PRONE AREAS WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS E MA SHOULD IMPROVE BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR.
FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MANY OF THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH MAY BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET
ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS. THEREFORE...SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE.
MAY HAVE SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON MONDAY...BUT STILL
EXPECT THEM TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THEREFORE...DO NOT THINK
WILL NEED NEAR SHORE SCA HEADLINES. ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...SEAS
MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT. THEREFORE...OPTED TO JUST EXTEND THOSE SCA HEADLINES THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
MAY HAVE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...MORE FOG MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS ON THE OPEN
WATERS UP TO 5-6 FT. SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS WITH VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
REDUCED VSBYS. LOW CHANCE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS. VSBYS
ALSO REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATERS. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 KT. SEAS
REMAIN AOA 5 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS. STILL EXPECT HEAVY SHOWERS/SCT
TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS. WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT FROM W-E
WED NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG LINGERS ON THE EASTERN WATERS
THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN WATERS EARLY THU...OTHERWISE GOOD VSBYS. W
TO NW WINDS DIMINISHING...BUT SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS THU...WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE THU NIGHT. WILL SEE LIGHT S
TO SW WINDS FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WITH BOSTON AT 12.2 FEET AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVENT
ANY PROBLEMS ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST...WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY ISSUES. NO
COASTAL PRODUCTS ARE ANTICIPATED. WORST CASE SCENARIO IS VERY
MINOR SPLASH OVER WITH NO REAL IMPACTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY YIELDING PERIODS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THIS TIME ALONG WITH A
HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
JUST A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES AS
OF LATE AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE WE SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY
IS LIMITED.
THE MAIN CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WAS BACK IN NEW YORK STATE
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING THIS ACTIVITY INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES AFTER 7 OR 8 PM. IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY/SHEAR FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. HOWEVER...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS CAN/T BE RULED OUT IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH PWATS AROUND
2 INCHES. WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS OUR
REGION...SOME MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY TRY TO MAKE IT ONTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE EVENING OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OR WHAT/S LEFT OF IT EXITS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...THERE STILL WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS A RESULT OF SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO THE LOWER 70S AND IT WILL BE MUGGY. IN ADDITION...SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE WITH BEST CHANCE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND/OR EVENING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE***
***HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT***
AN INTERESTING SET UP IN PLACE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT DETAILS/TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN. APPEARS THE
MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/S AND
WHEN/WHERE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.
SOME OF OUR GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF MOST OF THE CONVECTION UNTIL VERY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WHEN THE MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND GETS THINGS GOING CLOSE TO 00Z IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.
OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS BREAKS OUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT EARLIER. WE ARE DEALING WITH A VERY
MOIST/UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND IT WON/T TAKE MUCH HEATING TO GET
SOME CONVECTION GOING. WE SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLIER
THAN SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.
OTHER THAN THE TIMING ISSUES...THE BIG UNCERTAINTY THAT NEEDS TO BE
RESOLVED IS THE AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSULATION. GIVEN PATTERN...EXPECT
TO SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND BUT A FEW PEEKS OF SUN WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE WILL HAVE 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...WE
CAN GET AWAY WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS AND STILL HAVE A SEVERE
THREAT...BUT MORE SUN WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE POTENTIAL. LOOKS LIKE
WE SHOULD SEE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOP...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF
25 TO 35 KNOTS AND PERHAPS LOCALLY OVER 40 KNOTS WHEN THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT...AND 70+ DEWPOINTS.
ALL IN ALL...DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE SHEAR
SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING. PERHAPS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL ENDS UP
IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY/SHEAR
OVERLAP...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ANYWHERE.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR HAIL WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS. IN
ADDITION...0 TO 1 KM HELICITY VALUES MAY EXCEED 100 ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S...AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
IT APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COME MORE WIDESPREAD. PWATS
ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AT 2+ INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BUT
THOUGH THERE IS MORE TIME TO GET A BETTER FEEL ON THE LOCATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* NUMEROUS SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS TUE INTO WED WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
* WARM AND VERY HUMID MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY
* IMPROVING WEATHER WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THU AND FRI
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH OF
-3 SD /500 MB HEIGHTS/ DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MON. THIS TROUGH
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLC. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FROM SUN NIGHT INTO
WED. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALSO RESULTS IN MERIDIONAL FLOW ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH PWATS UP TO +2 SD STREAMING POLEWARD INTO
NEW ENGLAND FROM SUN NIGHT INTO WED. THIS DURATION COUPLED WITH DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR BACK
BUILDING AND TRAINING CELLS. THUS A RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. BOTH 00Z EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO OFFER HEAVY QPF WITH 1-3"
ACROSS THE REGION FROM TONIGHT THRU WED. 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLES NOT AS
BULLISH WITH VERY LOW PROBS OF 2+ INCHES.
IN ADDITION...THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN YIELDS AN ANOMALOUS /+2
SD/ UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THESE STRONG WIND FIELDS COUPLED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
WILL PROVIDE A LOW RISK OF A FEW STRONG TSTMS.
AS FOR GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT...THE 00Z GFS AND GEFS HAS FINALLY COME
AROUND TO THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND ECENS. THE HIGHER
RES OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
A WAVE WILL TRACK UP THE FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL SLOW
THE FRONT/S DEPARTURE AND LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
AT LEAST THRU EARLY WED. THIS FRONTAL WAVE WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE
RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED FLASH FLOODING. MODELS THEN MOVE
THE FRONT OFFSHORE LATE WED/WED NIGHT ALONG WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEAMPLIFYING. THIS SUPPORTS A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER THU AND FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER...SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE INTERIOR.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CLUSTER OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z.
WHILE SOME SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL PLAIN...BEST SHOT FOR
THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE...SCT
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6Z AND
12Z.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP. WILL KEEP THINGS MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW AND SHOW JUST
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES...EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT....MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY
TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE...POSSIBLE ANYWHERE BUT BEST SHOT MAY BE IN OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES. BIGGEST THREATS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AS FOR SKY/VSBYS OUTSIDE OF
PRECIPITATION VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE DURING THE DAY TUE EXCEPT
LOWER CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR SOUTH COAST. CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUE NIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR TO IFR DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MAINLY BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS LIKELY. PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT LIKELY YIELDING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...THEN LIFTING TO MARGINAL VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR EASTERN MA AND RI WITH VFR/MVFR WESTERN CT/MA.
GREATEST RISK OF SHOWER/TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...TREND TOWARD VFR ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MANY OF THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH MAY BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET
ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS. THEREFORE...SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE.
MAY HAVE SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON MONDAY...BUT STILL
EXPECT THEM TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THEREFORE...DO NOT THINK
WILL NEED NEAR SHORE SCA HEADLINES. ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...SEAS
MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT. THEREFORE...OPTED TO JUST EXTEND THOSE SCA HEADLINES THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
MAY HAVE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...MORE FOG MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
TUESDAY...COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WATERS. THUS SSW
WINDS 15-20 KT CONTINUES WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. SCATTERED
TSTMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. LOW RISK OF A TSTM WITH STRONG
WINDS. VSBY REDUCED AT TIMES IN PATCHY FOG. MODERATE TO HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...TRANSITION DAY WITH FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL WATERS. HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
CONTINUE ALONG WITH PATCHY MORNING FOG. HOWEVER COULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AS FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. SSW WINDS 15-20 KT WILL SLACKEN AND BECOME
WSW LATE OR AT NIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...BIG IMPROVEMENT WITH DRIER WEATHER AND IMPROVING VSBY.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WITH BOSTON AT 12.2 FEET AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVENT
ANY PROBLEMS ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST...WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY ISSUES. NO
COASTAL PRODUCTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WORST CASE
SCENARIO IS VERY MINOR SPLASH OVER WITH NO REAL IMPACTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
353 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR LATER IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT...A DEEP 500 HPA LOW IS CURRENTLY DROPPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
MEANWHILE...THE 500 HPA FLOW IS FAIRLY ZONAL OVER OUR AREA...WITH
RIDGING JUST DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE HAS BEEN TRANSPORTING
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS NOW MAINLY IN THE 60S.
ALTHOUGH THE DAY LOOKS TO START RAIN FREE...THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A PASSING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...THE NEARBY SFC BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP. THE LATEST 05Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING. OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOWS A SIMILAR
SETUP...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE HRRR.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY WILL BE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWAT VALUES SURGE TO NEARLY TWO INCHES BY LATE
TODAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BASED OF CLIMO. WITH FZL
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 KFT AND CAPE LIMITED TO JUST
500-1000 J/KG...THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES
TO DOMINATE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR. RAINFALL RATES
MAY EASILY EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR...AND MAY REACH 2.00-2.50
INCHES PER HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS.
IT IS STILL UNCLEAR THE EXACT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL LIMIT SOLAR
INSOLATION...AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE 1000 J/KG OR LESS. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS THIS AFTN MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORMS...BUT THE LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY
HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS. RIGHT NOW...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT ANY SEVERE STORMS...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE MORE
ISOLATED THAN A WIDESPREAD TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER DAY. GUSTY
WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORM...AS THE HIGH FZL
LEVELS AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C PER
KM/ WILL PREVENT MUCH LARGE HAIL FROM OCCURRING.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
AS THE DEEP CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SPINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST. WITH A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CAN CROSS
THROUGH OUR AREA. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR EXACTLY WHEN THIS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR...AS THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN TOTAL
AGREEMENT...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEFORE THEN...REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. WITH PWATS REMAINING HIGH...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...AND POTENTIALLY
FLASH FLOODING. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED...SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW.
DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO REACH THE 70S TO LOW 80S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FINAL STAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW MIGRATES DOWN WELL
INTO THE CONUS. THIS WILL USHER IN RATHER COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS LARGE ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. H850 TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND +10C RESULTING IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND RATHER COOL NIGHTS WITH LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES. THE HEART OF THIS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY WHERE
SOME OF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN COULD SEE A SHOWER AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DURING THE PEAK HEATING.
AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD...A CYCLONIC
ENTITY IS LEFT BEHIND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY PER THE 00Z GLOBAL
MODEL FORECASTS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH/ENTITY AND AMPLIFIES
THE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS IN TURN ATTEMPTS TO BRING
NORTHWARD MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL HOLD POPS INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO CHANCE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE THERMAL
PROFILES AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE TO ABOVE +10C.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANOPY OF SCT-BKN VFR CIGS WITH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS
THE REGION. THE EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED BUT DID IMPACT
KGFL. HERE WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND VERY NARROW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND WILL CONTINUE
TO PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR ADDITIONAL IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...COMBINATION OF LARGER DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OR AN ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY FOR ALL THE TERMINALS AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. WILL MENTION PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
CONVECTION.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT /SLIGHTLY
HIGHER IN KALB/...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN TODAY AND TUESDAY.
RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM. AT THE VERY LEAST...RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...POOR
DRAINAGE...LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS. IF THUNDERSTORMS TRACK OVER
THE SAME LOCATION WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY URBAN LOCATIONS.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL END
AND COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY HIGH WATER TO
RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
903 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...CONVECTION IS ALMOST ENTIRELY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGER SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT EVERYWHERE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT, ASSIGNED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE COASTS AND ADJACENT WATERS. HRRR HAS
BEEN SHOWING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC
WATERS LATE TONIGHT...AND EVEN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH
MOVEMENT ONSHORE THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST TOWARDS DAWN. GIVEN
VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS...THIS DOES LOOK POSSIBLE. MOST
AREAS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. PLEASE SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER FORECAST DETAILS. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014/
AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING NEAR KAPF...KMIA...AND KTMB TAF SITES WHILE REST OF THE
TAF SITES REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. SO WILL KEEP VCSH IN UNTIL 02Z FOR
KTMB...KMIA...AND KAPF BEFORE GOING DRY FOR TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL ALSO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE TAF SITES AFTER 02Z
TONIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH TUESDAY MORNING
OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST AT KAPF AND KTMB
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR REST OF THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES...THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
AFTER 18/19Z TIME FRAME. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHOWERS AROUND AFTER
14Z ON TUESDAY BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS COMES INTO THE PICTURE AFTER
18/19Z. SO WILL PUT VCSH IN ALL OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 14Z AND
THEN VCTS AFTER 18/19Z FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF
THE TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT KNOWN NOW. SO WILL DO AN AMEND TO THE TAF
SITES WHEN NEED BE FOR THE VIS AND CEILING.
AVIATION...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014/
SHORT TERM...
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND SUBTLE SSE TO S SURFACE FLOW. SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AT THIS HOUR ARE MOVING WEST...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEEPER INTO THE INTERIOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE STORMS FORM
FURTHER NORTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY JUST WEST OF I-595/I-95 IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MANY OF THESE STORMS WHICH HAVE LINED UP JUST
WEST OF THE MAJOR INTERSTATES COULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.
STORMS SHOULD ALSO PICK UP ALONG THE WEST COAST/NAPLES AND NORTH
AND EAST OF THIS REGION. THE WEAK FLOW THIS AFTERNOON IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY LEAD TO URBAN
HIGH WATER IN SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS.
A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA WILL BE THE
MAIN FEATURE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. IN RESPONSE WINDS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THE BEST
REGION FOR NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO SWING INTO THAT
DIRECTION AND MIGHT BE WISE TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE POPS IN THOSE
REGIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS LONG AS THE BOUNDARY DOESN`T SLOW.
EVOLUTION OF STORMS ON TUESDAY MAY FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN TO
TODAY...ALTHOUGH IF THE SURFACE FLOW IS A LITTLE STRONGER...MAY MITIGATE
THE VARIABLE EFFECTS THAT MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE ON
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION...
WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
PENINSULA...ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS. ALTHOUGH MOST
OF THE LIGHTNING IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE TERMINALS...WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THE
TERMINALS IN THE NEXT NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. TERMINAL
KAPF ALSO ASSIGNED VCTS ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY CONVECTION IS WEAK AT
THE MOMENT.
MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GENERAL
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND MONDAY AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF
LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO
THE SW GRADUALLY INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH ENTERS
FLORIDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 89 76 90 / 20 50 30 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 90 77 91 / 20 40 30 60
MIAMI 78 89 77 90 / 20 50 30 50
NAPLES 77 89 78 89 / 20 40 20 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1150 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
STALL TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PLUS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND DIURNAL COOLING SUPPORT SCATTERED
COVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN US ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE AND UPPER
LOWS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPSTATE DURING THE MORNING AND THE MIDLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS AGREE ON A RAPID MOISTENING DURING
THE MIDDAY HOURS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY AND PRODUCE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 90S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE GFS
CONTINUING TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEEKEND. REMAINS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN FL ON THURSDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GULF STATES. AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL
REMAINS WILL BEGIN SLIDING NORTHWARD. THIS WILL PUSH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
STALLING ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PIEDMONT AND WEST
MIDLANDS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. NO
IMPACT TO AREA TERMINALS ANTICIPATED. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM. FOG THREAT LOW DUE TO 20 TO 25
KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT
LATEST HRRR AND LAMP SUPPORT VFR. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...20Z-24Z BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND MVFR
OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON TO 20 KTS.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY AND OR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
759 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
STALL TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS NUMEROUS
BOUNDARIES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THESE BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING HAVE PRODUCED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THE CURRENT ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BY MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN MIDLANDS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
SURFACE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN US ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE AND UPPER
LOWS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPSTATE DURING THE MORNING AND THE MIDLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS AGREE ON A RAPID MOISTENING DURING
THE MIDDAY HOURS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY AND PRODUCE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 90S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE GFS
CONTINUING TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEEKEND. REMAINS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN FL ON THURSDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GULF STATES. AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL
REMAINS WILL BEGIN SLIDING NORTHWARD. THIS WILL PUSH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
STALLING ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PIEDMONT AND WEST
MIDLANDS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. NO
IMPACT TO AREA TERMINALS ANTICIPATED. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM. FOG THREAT LOW DUE TO 20 TO 25
KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT
LATEST HRRR AND LAMP SUPPORT VFR. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...20Z-24Z BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND MVFR
OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON TO 20 KTS.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY AND OR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1251 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION..1204 AM CDT
AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION...PARTIALLY FROM DECAYED
MCS...CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST DRIVEN BY STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS
AND ELONGATED SHORT WAVE. RAINFALL RATES OF ONE HALF TO
SPORADICALLY ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE BEING OBSERVED BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR ESTIMATED TOTALS. RAINFALL SHOULD LAST
AROUND 2-3 HOURS IN THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS.
HAVE COORDINATED WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER ON
THEIR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN CHICAGO METRO AREA.
GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FROM THEM IN LOW VALUES OF ONLY 1.25 TO
2.00 INCHES IN THREE HOURS FOR FLOODING...DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL OBSERVED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CHICAGO
METRO AREA.
PROPAGATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST...THOUGH SOME
SLOWING IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE
RIVER AS THE 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET OFFSETS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT.
THIS COULD CREATE TRAINING AND FLOODING PROBLEMS...AGAIN
PARTICULARLY FOR THE AREAS HIT HARD ON SATURDAY MORNING /SUCH AS
WESTERN FORD AND SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTIES/.
MTF
&&
.DISCUSSION...
311 PM CDT
THIS AFTERNOON...
THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
STACKED JUST ABOVE IT. STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN AND WE ARE SLOWLY RECOVERING FROM THIS MORNING/S
CONVECTION. THE 18Z DVN SOUNDING FEATURED 1.7 INCHES OF PWAT AND
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE. THE SOUNDING ALSO HAD A STOUT CAP AT 850MB
WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS. LAPSE RATES TO
950 MB WERE SURPRISINGLY STEEP GIVEN THE THICK CLOUD COVER. WITH THE
CAP IN PLACE AND SLOW RECOVERY NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. IN GENERAL EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THIN AND TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID 80S BY LATE THIS
AFTN. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUGGY AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER IOWA WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THIS EVENING ADDING FORCING FOR STORMS. A SURFACE LOW IS OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA AND ITS COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. A LINE OF STORMS WILL FORM ALONG
THE FRONT AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 850MB STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEST AT 30-40 KT AHEAD OF THE
LINE BUT ONLY AROUND 15 KT FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. TIMING
DIFFERS BETWEEN THE MODELS BUT THINKING A BLEND OF OUR LOCAL ARW AND
THE RAP LOOK REASONABLE. THE NAM LOOKS TOO FAST WHILE THE HRRR LOOKS
TOO SLOW.
THE LINE MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...BUT THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FLASH FLOODING. PWAT VALUES REMAIN HIGH AT
1.7-1.8 INCHES AND VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE WARNING
AREA FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
THIS STORM WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL
LIKELY BE ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
EASILY APPROACH 2 INCHES. IN ADDITION...SOME AREAS THIS MORNING
FROM COOK COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH PONTIAC AND GIBSON CITY SAW MULTIPLE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. THESE AREAS WILL BE THE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING AS WATER LEVELS ARE ALREADY
HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPLITS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A SECOND COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE SOUTH OF I-80
SO ONLY HAVE A CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF I-80. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME.
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM SUNDAY NIGHT FIRST ALONG THE
IL/WI STATE LINE AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH AS A VORTICITY STREAMER FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY THEN ONLY EXPECTING
SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM WITH THE STORMS DEVELOPING AND
COVERAGE.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY AND HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIGGER STORY
WILL BE THE COOL AIR THAT FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WHILE MONDAY/S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS CRISP WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS NE THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXTENDED
LOOKS DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 0730Z WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR OR IFR
VISIBILITIES.
* IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT AFTER SHRA/TSRA ENDS...LINGERING INTO THE
MORNING
* SMALL CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY
EVE.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CLEAR THE CHICAGO TERMINALS
IN THE COMING HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR... BUT IT LOOKS TO LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MAIN
CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT THE MOMENT...AND THIS HAS
BUILT SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. CONCERNED THAT THESE WILL BUILD
ACROSS NE ILLINOIS BEHIND THE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN ELEVATED AND FLOW IS RATHER WEAK. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE W AND NW BEHIND THE
INITIAL COOL FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH NOW. A SECONDARY STRONGER
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...THOUGH THERE IS LIMITED FORCING SO KEPT THE TAFS
DRY.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MODERATE TO HIGH IN TSRA END TIMING. LOW IN ANY REDEVELOPMENT
THAT IF OCCURS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF ORD AND MDW.
* MODERATE THAT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL RETURN AFTER STORMS DEPART...WITH
POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS. LOW IN PRECISE DEPARTURE TIME LATER THIS
MORNING.
* LOW IN ANY SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY EVE.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSRA.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR LIKELY.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
423 PM CDT
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE JUST
WEST OF THE LAKE. AS THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST
AND THEN EVENTUALLY WEST TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH...DO EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE.
EXPECTED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
ERRATIC WINDS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS. DO EXPECT MORE OF A WEST
NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY...AS A SECONDARY
TROUGH/FRONT MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 1 PM SUNDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 1
PM SUNDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1205 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
1204 AM CDT
AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION...PARTIALLY FROM DECAYED
MCS...CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST DRIVEN BY STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS
AND ELONGATED SHORT WAVE. RAINFALL RATES OF ONE HALF TO
SPORADICALLY ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE BEING OBSERVED BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR ESTIMATED TOTALS. RAINFALL SHOULD LAST
AROUND 2-3 HOURS IN THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS.
HAVE COORDINATED WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER ON
THEIR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN CHICAGO METRO AREA.
GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FROM THEM IN LOW VALUES OF ONLY 1.25 TO
2.00 INCHES IN THREE HOURS FOR FLOODING...DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL OBSERVED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CHICAGO
METRO AREA.
PROPAGATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST...THOUGH SOME
SLOWING IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE
RIVER AS THE 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET OFFSETS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT.
THIS COULD CREATE TRAINING AND FLOODING PROBLEMS...AGAIN
PARTICULARLY FOR THE AREAS HIT HARD ON SATURDAY MORNING /SUCH AS
WESTERN FORD AND SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTIES/.
MTF
&&
.DISCUSSION...
311 PM CDT
THIS AFTERNOON...
THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
STACKED JUST ABOVE IT. STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN AND WE ARE SLOWLY RECOVERING FROM THIS MORNING/S
CONVECTION. THE 18Z DVN SOUNDING FEATURED 1.7 INCHES OF PWAT AND
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE. THE SOUNDING ALSO HAD A STOUT CAP AT 850MB
WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS. LAPSE RATES TO
950 MB WERE SURPRISINGLY STEEP GIVEN THE THICK CLOUD COVER. WITH THE
CAP IN PLACE AND SLOW RECOVERY NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. IN GENERAL EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THIN AND TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID 80S BY LATE THIS
AFTN. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUGGY AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER IOWA WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THIS EVENING ADDING FORCING FOR STORMS. A SURFACE LOW IS OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA AND ITS COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. A LINE OF STORMS WILL FORM ALONG
THE FRONT AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 850MB STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEST AT 30-40 KT AHEAD OF THE
LINE BUT ONLY AROUND 15 KT FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. TIMING
DIFFERS BETWEEN THE MODELS BUT THINKING A BLEND OF OUR LOCAL ARW AND
THE RAP LOOK REASONABLE. THE NAM LOOKS TOO FAST WHILE THE HRRR LOOKS
TOO SLOW.
THE LINE MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...BUT THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FLASH FLOODING. PWAT VALUES REMAIN HIGH AT
1.7-1.8 INCHES AND VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE WARNING
AREA FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
THIS STORM WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL
LIKELY BE ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
EASILY APPROACH 2 INCHES. IN ADDITION...SOME AREAS THIS MORNING
FROM COOK COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH PONTIAC AND GIBSON CITY SAW MULTIPLE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. THESE AREAS WILL BE THE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING AS WATER LEVELS ARE ALREADY
HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPLITS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A SECOND COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE SOUTH OF I-80
SO ONLY HAVE A CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF I-80. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME.
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM SUNDAY NIGHT FIRST ALONG THE
IL/WI STATE LINE AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH AS A VORTICITY STREAMER FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY THEN ONLY EXPECTING
SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM WITH THE STORMS DEVELOPING AND
COVERAGE.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY AND HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIGGER STORY
WILL BE THE COOL AIR THAT FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WHILE MONDAY/S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS CRISP WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS NE THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXTENDED
LOOKS DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* TSRA 0400Z-0700Z WITH IFR VISIBIILTY IN HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS AT THE LEADING EDGE.
* MVFR CIGS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH TEMPORARY IFR LIKELY DURING
THE TSRA.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY
EVE.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...
PREV DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN IL...PRETTY NEAR THE
CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS. THIS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES...WITH STORMS LIKELY TO EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH MID-EVENING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
IT STILL REMAINS TRICKY TO TIME THE FIRST STORMS...BUT THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE THE TIMES WITH PREVAILING TSRA IN
THE TAFS. DUE TO A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HIGH RAINFALL
RATES AND LOW VISIBILITY...POTENTIALLY TO LIFR...IS TEMPORARILY
EXPECTED.
PATCHY MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN SEEN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE STORM ARRIVAL TIME. IN THE WAKE
OF THE STORMS...LINGERING MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST FOR UP TO SEVERAL
HOURS.
WINDS ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT MUCH OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
EVE AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE. AS STORMS MOVE OVER...OF COURSE SOME
VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED. A LARGE WELL-DEFINED COMPLEX OF
STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES RESULT IN A SOUTHEAST
WIND AFTERWARD.
THE INITIAL COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT TURNING WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST. A SECONDARY STRONGER ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
IN THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS...THOUGH THERE IS LIMITED FORCING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH IN TSRA TIMING. HIGH IN AT LEAST TEMPORARY IFR VISIBILITY
DURING THE TSRA.
* HIGH THAT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE STORMS FOR AT LEAST
A COUPLE HOURS...WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS. LOW IN PRECISE
DEPARTURE TIME.
* LOW IN ANY SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY EVE.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSRA.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR LIKELY.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
423 PM CDT
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE JUST
WEST OF THE LAKE. AS THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST
AND THEN EVENTUALLY WEST TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH...DO EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE.
EXPECTED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
ERRATIC WINDS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS. DO EXPECT MORE OF A WEST
NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY...AS A SECONDARY
TROUGH/FRONT MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 1 PM SUNDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 1
PM SUNDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
909 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
00Z MODELS CONTINUING TREND OF PRODUCING 200-500 J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE AFTER 08Z IN AREA OF PERSISTENT PRESSURE ADVECTION ON 310K
SURFACE. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FROM RAP AND NAM INDICATE
SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THIS LEVEL AND WITH CINH ERODING
THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS
ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT COVERAGE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT
THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 549 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS COLORADO AND HAVE FINE TUNED TIMING OF CHANCES ACROSS
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH CHANGING AIR MASS WILL
LIMIT SFC INSTABILITY...RAP/NAM AND VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS
INDICATING STRONG WAA DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. CAPE/CINH PROFILES
WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED INITIATION BUT STILL HAVE A
FEW CONCERNS ABOUT CINH WHICH KEEP CHANCES LOW. WILL RE EVALUATE TO
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AFTER 00Z DATA COMES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COMBINED WITH A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT
RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO. MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH FAIRLY GOOD DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KTS MAY RESULT IN A SEVERE STORM OR TWO BEFORE
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AFTER SUNSET AND GRADUAL DISSIPATION.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP AHEAD TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...BY THE
AFTERNOON FALLING HEIGHTS AS THAT SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WHICH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
AXIS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHERE UP TO 2500 J/KG IS
FORECAST WITH EXCELLENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-60KTS. AS A
RESULT...SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. LCLS AND 0-1KM HELICITY FORECASTS WOULD SEEM TO
RULE OUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF SHEAR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ONCE AGAIN
MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM INCLUDE THE THE TRANSITION
FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...IN
ADDITION TO THE LIKELY POSSIBILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN TROUGH WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND ROTATES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SHORT
WAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN BREAKING DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL WAVES EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN TIMING
AND POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SEVERAL OF THE MINOR SHORT
WAVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT BECOME MORE DIVERGENT AND OUT
OF PHASE WITH SUBSEQUENT ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT...COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL
STAY OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS AS THE AIRMASS FINALLY
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT
AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER
EASTERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS AND PERSISTENT GENERALLY
MOIST UPSLOPE RETURN FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASSING OVER THE REGION...FEEL
THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUING FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS A
RESULT. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. HAVE ONLY PUT
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 549 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SFC HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 10Z WHICH WILL LINGER ACROSS AREA
THROUGH 17Z. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1131 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
EARLY THIS MORNING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF THE FA. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 14 OR 15Z. PLAN TO INCLUDE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES FOR THESE.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN FA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW AS WELL WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT LOW CHANCES OF STORMS. CHANCE POPS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.
THE GFS AND NAM HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMOUNT OF FORCING FOR
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FORCING UNTIL
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS VERY WEAK FORCING FOR MONDAY WITH
A LACK OF FORCING MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO
WILL KEEP POPS LOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT GOOD MOISTURE AND FORCING COME TOGETHER OVER
THE FA. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF FOR THIS EVENT SO SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT TYPE OF WEATHER OTHER THAN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE GREATER
INSTABILITY.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY WILL RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER
80S. MUCH COOLER READINGS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S TONIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY WILL FUNNEL LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY ALOFT SHOULD
REMAIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...RAINFALL AND ALREADY COOLER CANADIAN AIR...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN A BIT
LOWER.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BRING IN MORE DRY AIR ALOFT
ON FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND COULD BE SUSTAINABLE WITH PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND THURSDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND THE RETURN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...WHICH COULD BE THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE POSSIBILITY OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL AFFECT THE AREA. MODEL TIMING VARIES ON THE PASSAGE TO
EITHER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING PINNING
DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS IN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT EITHER
TERMINAL WILL BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED. OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT BETTER
WITH THE FRONT SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCTS AND EXPECTED TIMING
AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
536 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
EARLY THIS MORNING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF THE FA. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 14 OR 15Z. PLAN TO INCLUDE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES FOR THESE.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN FA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW AS WELL WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT LOW CHANCES OF STORMS. CHANCE POPS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.
THE GFS AND NAM HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMOUNT OF FORCING FOR
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FORCING UNTIL
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS VERY WEAK FORCING FOR MONDAY WITH
A LACK OF FORCING MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO
WILL KEEP POPS LOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT GOOD MOISTURE AND FORCING COME TOGETHER OVER
THE FA. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF FOR THIS EVENT SO SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT TYPE OF WEATHER OTHER THAN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE GREATER
INSTABILITY.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY WILL RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER
80S. MUCH COOLER READINGS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S TONIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY WILL FUNNEL LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY ALOFT SHOULD
REMAIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...RAINFALL AND ALREADY COOLER CANADIAN AIR...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN A BIT
LOWER.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BRING IN MORE DRY AIR ALOFT
ON FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND COULD BE SUSTAINABLE WITH PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND THURSDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND THE RETURN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...WHICH COULD BE THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE POSSIBILITY OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL AFFECT THE AREA. MODEL TIMING VARIES ON THE PASSAGE TO
EITHER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING PINNING
DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK. LATER TODAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS
BOTH SITES FOR A FEW HOURS, SOME MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
STORMS. OTHERWISE CLEARING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE STORMS FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
244 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
EARLY THIS MORNING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF THE FA. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 14 OR 15Z. PLAN TO INCLUDE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES FOR THESE.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN FA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW AS WELL WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT LOW CHANCES OF STORMS. CHANCE POPS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.
THE GFS AND NAM HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMOUNT OF FORCING FOR
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FORCING UNTIL
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS VERY WEAK FORCING FOR MONDAY WITH
A LACK OF FORCING MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO
WILL KEEP POPS LOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT GOOD MOISTURE AND FORCING COME TOGETHER OVER
THE FA. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF FOR THIS EVENT SO SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT TYPE OF WEATHER OTHER THAN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE GREATER
INSTABILITY.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY WILL RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER
80S. MUCH COOLER READINGS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S TONIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY WILL FUNNEL LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY ALOFT SHOULD
REMAIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...RAINFALL AND ALREADY COOLER CANADIAN AIR...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN A BIT
LOWER.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BRING IN MORE DRY AIR ALOFT
ON FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND COULD BE SUSTAINABLE WITH PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND THURSDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND THE RETURN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...WHICH COULD BE THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE POSSIBILITY OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL AFFECT THE AREA. MODEL TIMING VARIES ON THE PASSAGE TO
EITHER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING PINNING
DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME. MAIN
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SOUTH AND WEST OF KGLD. NEWER GUIDANCE
HAS THIS AREA FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN EARLIER GUIDANCE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH TOMORROW. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CREATE A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH SITES...MAINLY AT KGLD. FEEL THE BETTER
CHANCE IS AT KGLD RIGHT NOW SO PUT IN A VCTS MENTION THERE
BEGINNING AT 00Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1151 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
19Z water vapor imagery shows a broad mid level ridge centered over
northern OK/southern KS while a deep closed low spun over Manitoba
and was beginning to move south. One trough axis appears to have
rotated through NEB with a second shortwave trough digging southeast
through ND. At the surface a cold front stretched from northwest KS
into central IA, and has been slowly moving southeast this afternoon.
For tonight and Sunday, the models continue to show the cold front
moving through the forecast area late tonight. This seems to make
since with the initial mid level trough rotating through IA tonight
and the ridge overhead breaking down. Most of the model guidance
shows a well defined band of frontogenesis within the mid levels of
the atmosphere along with a narrow axis of moisture. This appears to
be the main driver of precip tonight and Sunday as forecast
soundings continue to show limited moisture in the lower atmosphere.
So think there is a good chance for elevated showers and storms to
develop this evening and overnight rather than deep moist convection
from surface parcels. Not sure if the HRRR is handling the
frontogenesis as well as it depicts convection and is the reason it
has been one of the drier solutions. Would not be surprised to see
precip lingering through the morning much like it has over
northeastern NEB and northern IA today. Since I`m expecting precip
to be elevated, chances for severe weather appear to be very limited
due to modest elevated instability from 700-500MB lapse rates only
around 6 C/km.
There does not appear to be a big surge in cold dry air behind the
front tonight. Obs upstream show decent moisture pooling behind the
boundary. With mostly cloudy skies anticipated behind the front and
dewpoints remaining in the mid and upper 60s behind the front, think
lows will once again be mild. Areas along the NEB state line should
see lows in the upper 60s while elsewhere is expected to remain in
the lower 70s. Think highs Sunday will depend on how much insolation
reaches the ground. With skies likely to remain partly to mostly
cloudy across east central KS from the elevated showers, have highs
in the mid 80s across Anderson and Coffey counties. Elsewhere think there
could be enough sunshine for highs to reach the upper 80s to around
90. Considered maybe bumping highs up a degree or two from what I
have now since there isn`t a lot of cold air advection behind the
front, but held off since models show some cooling at 850 and the
thermal ridge setting up further south.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
Will linger a low pop across the far southeast counties of the cwa for
Sunday evening...otherwise will leave the remainder of the forecast dry
overnight except for the far northwest corner with the approach of the
next shortwave trough. As this wave and stronger cold front moves
through...mid level frontogenesis will increase from north to south
through midday with decreasing lift in the mid to late afternoon
across the southern cwa. Will therefore go dry all areas of the
county warning area. Rainfall amounts will generally average a tenth
to a third of an inch during the day.
Much cooler and drier air works southward across the cwa through the
night with 850 temps by sunrise Tuesday falling into the 7 to 10 deg
C range with diminishing winds and mostly clear skies. This will
probably be the coolest morning of the week with lows in the low to
middle 50s all areas which will be near or just above record lows
for July 15th.
By late Tuesday night models try to bring the remnants of an MCS
east and southeast across central Ks which may clip the far
southwest corner of the cwa by sunrise...then the southern half of
the cwa during the day. Have inserted low pops across this
area...and inched low temps up due to more cloudcover...but still
unseasonably cool in the middle to upper 50s and highs in the 70s.
As another northwest flow shortwave moves from the central high
plains into the southern plains...most of the precip through the end
of the week should remain south of the cwa with weak upper ridging
building back into the area by the weekend. Will keep the remainder
of the fcst beyond Wednesday dry with a gradual warming trend. Highs
will warm through the 80s as low temps moderate through the 60s to
around 70 by Saturday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
Isolated TSRA developing along the cold front seen on radar just
south of KMHK. Will mention a VCTS as coverage is low. Main line
of TSRA over southern Nebraska will slowly track southward and
weaken as it reaches terminals. Initial wind shift will arrive
between 06Z- 09Z before scattered showers with embedded thunder
are possible through 13Z. Timing and intensity of the weakening
convection from guidance left low confidence in prevailing TSRA
mention. On the low end chance it occurs, MVFR to IFR cigs are
possible. SCT MVFR cigs appears a better possibility as low level
moisture increases behind the exiting showers. Should expect lower
cigs to quickly dissipate by mid morning with clearing skies and
northerly winds near or just below 10 kts during the afternoon.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
112 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR SE KY AND THERE ARE SOME
ISOLATED CELLS OVER WESTERN KY AS WELL. CONVECTION IS ALSO DEVELOPING
ACROSS OH AND INDIANA IN ADVANCE OF THE INITIAL FRONT WHICH IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.
CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE COVERING THE CURRENT
SITUATION...AND WILL ONLY MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CURRENT THINKING ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
CONSISTENT WITH EARLY MORNING FORECAST GRIDS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM SE MI TO CENTRAL IL SHOULD SERVE AS FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OH AND INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
THINKING WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RAP
AND HRRR POINT TOWARDS THIS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. PRIOR TO THIS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED
INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR SE WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THERE
PRIOR TO CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON THE RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...NO AWOS OR ASOS SITES WERE REPORTING FOG...AS THE MID
CLOUD DECK HAS GENERALLY HINDERED IT FROM DEVELOPING. WITH THAT IN MIND...
FOG WAS REMOVED FROM THE GRIDS TO START THE DAY. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED
TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND EXTENDING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WITH THE RIDGE
EXTENDING INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE TO ITS EAST A
TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AND NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES FROM A RATHER STRONG MID SUMMER UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. ONE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS WORKING ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH ANOTHER WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS COMBINATION IS PUSHING A RATHER SHEARED OUT EAST
TO WEST COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO MID MS VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE FRONT ALSO APPROACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO WORK GRADUALLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA NEAR THE KY/VA/TN TRI
STATE AREA HAVE EXPERIENCED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY COLDER IN
THESE LOCATIONS. SO FAR THIS MORNING...NO ASOS OR AWOS SITES HAVE
REPORTED ANY FOG. HOWEVER...NEAR ZERO DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN SOME
VALLEY LOCATIONS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RIVER VALLEY FOG IS
PROBABLY OCCURRING.
THE SHORTWAVE GENERALLY PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL SERVE TO FURTHER SHEAR OUT THE COLD FRONT FROM EAST TO
WEST WITH IT STALLING OUT AND WASHING OUT OR MERGING WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD APPROACH THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THIS SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN AMPLIFYING. THIS UPPER LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN FORCING LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. RETURN LOW AND
MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS LEADING TO A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT. THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE WITH PW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO CLIMB TO
ABOUT 1.75 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. MODEL FORECAST
SHOW SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN PW VALUES DUE TO DIFFERENT TIMING OF
CONVECTION AND SHORTWAVES. THE GFS SHOWS THE MOST VARIABILITY OF PW
FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE NAM HAS THE HIGHEST VALUES ON
AVERAGE.
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM MIDDAY TODAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA/TN/KY TRI
STATE AREA FIRST AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA CLOSER
TO THE BOUNDARY AND PASSING SHORTWAVES. GREATER INSTABILITY AND A BIT
STRONGER SHEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE REALIZED
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. MODELS DEVELOP SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THAT AREA...A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAY OCCUR. CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT ALSO MIGHT TRAIN
WEST TO EAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST WITH THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE STALLING BOUNDARY. WITH
THE PW NEAR OR ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS THE NORTH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. RECENT DAYS HAVE BEEN DRY AND MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 4 TO 6 WEEKS...SO IT WOULD TAKE AN
INITIAL SHOT OR TWO OF HEAVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
SHORTLY THEREAFTER TO PRIME ANY LOCATION.
ON MONDAY...THE GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE FURTHER SOUTHEAST
OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH
FORCING FROM HEIGHT FALLS...SHOULD AGAIN LEAD TO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF PARTS OF THE REGION CLEAR OUT FOR A FEW HOURS...
A PREFRONTAL MULTICELL CLUSTER OR LINE OR TWO OF STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE AS MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WOULD
AGAIN APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS. AGAIN...DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE AND EXTENT OF INSTABILITY SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT BE A GREATER CONCERN THAN THE SEVERE THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
THE MODELS BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN FEATURES A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER
MAKE WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE A POTENT SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE ORIENTED FROM WEST TO EAST
AND...IF THE MODELS BE TRUE...WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME OF THE STORMS MONDAY
EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...A LARGE RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL USHER COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD...SO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE LOWER
CONFIDENCE. THAT BEING SAID...INCORPORATED THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR FRIDAY ONWARD DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE
UNSEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY TO
END THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO
AROUND 80 FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S...WITH COOLER LOWS OF THE MID TO UPPER 50S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEW AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO AND THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING
NIGHT...WITH MVFR EXPECTED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TIED TO A WEAK
AREA OF INSTABILITY OVER FAR SE KY SHOULD REMAIN SE OF THE TAF SITES.
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN INDIANA AND OHIO WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. THE CONVECTION OVER SE KY WILL
DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET WHILE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER OH AND INDIANA SHOULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY ON MONDAY. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1111 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CURRENT THINKING ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
CONSISTENT WITH EARLY MORNING FORECAST GRIDS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM SE MI TO CENTRAL IL SHOULD SERVE AS FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OH AND INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
THINKING WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RAP
AND HRRR POINT TOWARDS THIS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. PRIOR TO THIS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED
INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR SE WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THERE
PRIOR TO CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON THE RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...NO AWOS OR ASOS SITES WERE REPORTING FOG...AS THE MID
CLOUD DECK HAS GENERALLY HINDERED IT FROM DEVELOPING. WITH THAT IN MIND...
FOG WAS REMOVED FROM THE GRIDS TO START THE DAY. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED
TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND EXTENDING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WITH THE RIDGE
EXTENDING INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE TO ITS EAST A
TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AND NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES FROM A RATHER STRONG MID SUMMER UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. ONE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS WORKING ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH ANOTHER WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS COMBINATION IS PUSHING A RATHER SHEARED OUT EAST
TO WEST COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO MID MS VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE FRONT ALSO APPROACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO WORK GRADUALLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA NEAR THE KY/VA/TN TRI
STATE AREA HAVE EXPERIENCED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY COLDER IN
THESE LOCATIONS. SO FAR THIS MORNING...NO ASOS OR AWOS SITES HAVE
REPORTED ANY FOG. HOWEVER...NEAR ZERO DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN SOME
VALLEY LOCATIONS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RIVER VALLEY FOG IS
PROBABLY OCCURRING.
THE SHORTWAVE GENERALLY PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL SERVE TO FURTHER SHEAR OUT THE COLD FRONT FROM EAST TO
WEST WITH IT STALLING OUT AND WASHING OUT OR MERGING WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD APPROACH THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THIS SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN AMPLIFYING. THIS UPPER LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN FORCING LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. RETURN LOW AND
MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS LEADING TO A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT. THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE WITH PW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO CLIMB TO
ABOUT 1.75 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. MODEL FORECAST
SHOW SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN PW VALUES DUE TO DIFFERENT TIMING OF
CONVECTION AND SHORTWAVES. THE GFS SHOWS THE MOST VARIABILITY OF PW
FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE NAM HAS THE HIGHEST VALUES ON
AVERAGE.
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM MIDDAY TODAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA/TN/KY TRI
STATE AREA FIRST AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA CLOSER
TO THE BOUNDARY AND PASSING SHORTWAVES. GREATER INSTABILITY AND A BIT
STRONGER SHEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE REALIZED
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. MODELS DEVELOP SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THAT AREA...A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAY OCCUR. CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT ALSO MIGHT TRAIN
WEST TO EAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST WITH THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE STALLING BOUNDARY. WITH
THE PW NEAR OR ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS THE NORTH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. RECENT DAYS HAVE BEEN DRY AND MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 4 TO 6 WEEKS...SO IT WOULD TAKE AN
INITIAL SHOT OR TWO OF HEAVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
SHORTLY THEREAFTER TO PRIME ANY LOCATION.
ON MONDAY...THE GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE FURTHER SOUTHEAST
OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH
FORCING FROM HEIGHT FALLS...SHOULD AGAIN LEAD TO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF PARTS OF THE REGION CLEAR OUT FOR A FEW HOURS...
A PREFRONTAL MULTICELL CLUSTER OR LINE OR TWO OF STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE AS MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WOULD
AGAIN APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS. AGAIN...DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE AND EXTENT OF INSTABILITY SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT BE A GREATER CONCERN THAN THE SEVERE THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
THE MODELS BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN FEATURES A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER
MAKE WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE A POTENT SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE ORIENTED FROM WEST TO EAST
AND...IF THE MODELS BE TRUE...WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME OF THE STORMS MONDAY
EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...A LARGE RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL USHER COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD...SO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE LOWER
CONFIDENCE. THAT BEING SAID...INCORPORATED THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR FRIDAY ONWARD DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE
UNSEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY TO
END THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO
AROUND 80 FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S...WITH COOLER LOWS OF THE MID TO UPPER 50S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEW AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
PREDOMINANTLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AS WELL ALTHOUGH DURING PEAK HEATING...
ALTHOUGH DURING PEAK HEATING WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT GUSTY AND SUSTAINED
AS HIGH AS 10KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
OH VALLEY INCREASES THE PRESS GRADIENT. THE EXCEPTION DURING THE
FIRST 12 HOURS TO VFR WILL BE IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP AROUND 16Z AND AFTER...WHERE LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS TO
MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBY ARE POSSIBLE. MORE ORGANIZED SHRA AND TSRA
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM 22Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AGAIN LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS. AS FOR NOW...
WE HAVE CONTINUED TO GO WITH VCTS AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
207 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
SPREADING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS EASTERN KY AS A MID LEVEL
WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. MEANWHILE...VALLEY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WERE RUNNING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LEAD TO MIN T A BIT WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
WITH WINDS DECOUPLING IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED AND DEW
POINTS HAVE JUMPED. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBS.
THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT REMAINS UNCHANGED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 614 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CIRRUS HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION...BUT IT
WAS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. INCREASED SKY COVER FOR EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT STAYED WITH A TREND TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT. DRY SURFACE AIR AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION TONIGHT WOULD FAVOR SOME RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES...AND HAVE LOWERED VALLEY MINS JUST A BIT FOR TONIGHT.
WITHOUT OVERCAST SKIES OR SIGNIFICANT WIND...CLIMATOLOGY STRONGLY
FAVORS AT LEAST SOME FOG IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SO...DESPITE THE DRY AIR...HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN VALLEYS FOR
LATE TONIGHT...BUT PREVIOUS THINKING OF LESS SUBSTANTIAL FOG THAN IN
RECENT NIGHTS SHOULD STILL PLAY OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY TIED TO TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER SW VA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF TN AND
NC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KY IS AHEAD OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE OF
70 PLUS DEW POINT TEMPERATURES OVER IL AND MO. SATELLITE...RADAR AND
LIGHTNING TRENDS ALL SHOW CONTINUING WEAKENING OF CONVECTION OVER
INDIANA...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME DEVELOPMENT INTO WESTERN KY. THE
SHORT RANGE RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW OVERALL DECAY OF CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST...AND ONLY IMPACT IN OUR AREA WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE IN EASTERN KY THIS
AFTERNOON...NOTE DEW POINT AS LOW AS 48 AT QUICKSAND MESONET...THERE
WILL BE EVEN LESS FOG TONIGHT AS THERE WAS LAST NIGHT. GUIDANCE NOT
HANDLING THE DRY AIR VERY WELL...AND EXPECT THERE TO BE ABOUT A 5
DEGREE RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WITH MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG DEVELOPING IN A CORRIDOR
NORTH OF THE OH RIVER ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND OH. BEST SHEAR WILL ALSO
BE NORTH OF THE OH RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OH AND INDIANA AND THEN
PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD ALSO BE IN A CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY GREATER
INSTABILITY AND ALSO PARTIALLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AT HINTING AT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE SE
FORECAST AREA. CONSIDERING ALL THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FIRST ON SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THE LAST TO SEE THE RAIN CHANCES.
THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY HAS SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM
BEST SUPPORT...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DECREASE. THE DAY 2 SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH ONLY OUR FAR NW COUNTIES HAVING A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH 12Z MONDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD. WITH PW
INCREASING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TO 1.7 TO POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 2
INCHES SOME HEAVY RAINERS ARE DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH
OF THE AREA HAS BEEN PLACED IN THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
VALID 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
HOWEVER...AND PART OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN D1 DROUGHT. INITIALLY...
AT LEAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS THE FIRST HALF OF THIS OUTLOOK
PERIOD THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOOKS BE ISOLATED AT WORST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME DECENT CONTINUITY THROUGH THE LAST FEW
CYCLES BUT STILL APPEARS OUTSIDE THE RANGE OF OTHER SOLUTIONS AND
TOO PROGRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED AMPLITUDE OF
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT IS ADVERTISING A SLOWER SYSTEM THAT PUNCHES FURTHER SOUTH
THAN OTHER MODELS AND IS ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF
SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE MID TERM. JUST THE SAME MODELS ROUGHLY AGREE
ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. THE MAIN...AND
MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CROP UP RESOLVING SURFACE FEATURES AND
THE TIMING OF SFC SYSTEMS THROUGH OUR AREA. ATTM TENDENCY IS TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH THE MID RANGE AFTER USING A
CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO INITIALIZE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL STICK TO A BLENDED APPROACH FOR THE END OF
THE FORECAST WINDOW AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY EMERGES FROM THE PACIFIC
NW/CANADA CAUSING THE PATTERN TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED...BUT ALSO
ALLOWING FOR THE MEAN STORM TRACK TO RETURN NORTHWARD CLOSER TO OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS.
HEIGHTS FALL DROP STEADILY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS A
SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF ITS ENERGY
INTO THE THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN A LARGE
DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS BY MID WEEK. SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BY LATE SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND STRONGER...FASTER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THE FIRST SLIDING THROUGH OUR AREA AS SOON AS
MONDAY NIGHT...OR AS LATE AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON WHICH
MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IT STILL SEEMS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING TROUBLE
RESOLVING THE TIMING OR PASSAGE OF THESE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...
WITH A TENDENCY TO MERGE EACH DISTINCT BOUNDARY INTO A SINGLE FINAL
SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY TOO QUICKLY.
WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH
THE TIME OF DAY AND EXACT AMOUNT OF SUNLIGHT WILL BE SOMETHING THAT
WILL NEED TO BE FACTORED IN. AS IS TYPICAL...THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY
MORE UNSTABLE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECAUSE OF ITS WET BIAS. THE NAM
IS ALSO SHOWING HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING TO MONDAY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. PWATS AND LIFT THROUGH THE
COLUMN ARE MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE AS WELL WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS.
EXPECT THE TRUTH WILL LIE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE THOUGH THAT MAY BE
A BAD ASSUMPTION GIVEN THE GFS MIGHT BE HAVING TROUBLE
DISTINGUISHING SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DETAILS. FREEZING LEVELS
REMAIN HIGH. SO WHILE SOME HEAVY RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...STORM
MOTION IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT HYDRO PROBLEMS SHOULD NOT BECOME TOO MUCH
OF A PROBLEM...AT LEAST BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE. BIGGEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY LIE ACROSS OUR BLUE GRASS COUNTIES
SUNDAY...BUT THEN EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD TO ENCOMPASS OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY.
WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT UNSEASONABLE COLD WEATHER FOR THE PEAK OF
SUMMER HEATING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF UPCOMING WEEK. ECMWF H850 TEMPS
DROP TO AROUND 8C AND THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF. ECMWF
MOS GUIDANCE IS QUITE COOL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S AND LOWS SOLIDLY IN THE 50S FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE
THERE IS SOME MODERATION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE IS A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOME RECORD COLD MORNING LOWS AND EVEN A FEW
RECORD LOW MAXES. GFS MOS IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER BUT HAS SHOWN SIGNS
OF COOLING. PAST EXPERIENCE HAS TAUGHT THAT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
MAKES A BEST FIRST GUESS...AFTER A TWEAK TOWARDS THE TYPICALLY MORE
ACCURATE ECMWF MOS.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE BASE OF
THE BY THEN LIFTING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BRING A THREAT OF RAIN
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
PREDOMINANTLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCALIZED FOG IN DEEP VALLEYS
THROUGH 12Z OR 13Z. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP AROUND 16Z AND AFTER...WITH LOCALIZED
RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS/VSBY. AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND
TSRA SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AFTER 22Z WITH
SOME OR ALL OF THE TAF SITES POSSIBLY AFFECTED DURING THE LAST 6
HOURS OF THE PERIOD. WITH THAT IN MIND...OPTED FOR A MENTION OF VCTS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
954 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LESS SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THAN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ONLY A FEW SHRA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING. OUR ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS NE TX/N LA WITH THE
LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/PRE FRONTAL TROF PRODUCED FROM THE TSRA
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SUGGESTING CONVECTION RE-FIRING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS THE DAYBREAK HOURS AS
IT CONTINUES SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT
EXPECTED AFTER 12Z ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA...AND AREAWIDE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE REGION.
THUS...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING...MAINLY
LEAVING IT AT 20%...BUMPING IT UP A BIT FOR INLAND SE TX/C LA
AFTER 06Z FOR POSSIBLE RE-INITIATION ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
RECENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND KLFT HAS DIMINISHED...LEAVING
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CONCERN TOMORROW SHIFTING
TOWARD CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. ADDED VCTS AND PROB
GROUPS STARTING 12Z AT KAEX...AND 18Z FARTHER SOUTH AT THE I-10
TERMINALS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY TO
BEGIN SOONER...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THE BULK
OF ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TIED TO/ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE SEA BREEZE IS KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TOWARDS SUNSET. STORMS OVER THE LAKES REGION
ARE BEING SUPPORT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING OFF TO THE WEST
TODAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER EAST TEXAS
AND SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AROUND THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA IS TRAVELING TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS WILL INCREASE OVER CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS COMBINATION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY... DEEP GULF
MOISTURE... THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST TEXAS
AND FINALLY A WEAK COOL FRONT OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AT THIS TIME
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ALSO
THIS WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON TEMPS A LITTLE IN CHECK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL REFLECT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY
GULF WINDS WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S INLAND TO NEAR 80
AT THE COAST.
THE COOL FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKING
FOR A SMALL DROP IN TEMPS. IN ADDITION THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
DRAG DOWN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THAT WILL HELP STORMS DEVELOPMENT ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 76 91 73 90 75 / 20 50 30 30 20
KBPT 76 92 74 91 76 / 20 50 30 30 20
KAEX 75 89 68 89 68 / 30 50 20 20 20
KLFT 76 91 72 91 72 / 20 50 30 20 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER AR/NE TX CONVECTION EXTENDED
FROM NEAR ELD TO JUST SOUTH OF SHREVEPORT TO SOUTH OF TYR/LFK AT
THIS HOUR. CONVECTION WAS NON EXISTENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT NEW CONVECTION WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP NORTH AND
WEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR.
A QUICK LOOK AT THE HRRR AND THE NEW NAM OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT AS
THE TRUE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...NEW CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO MIMIC
THIS THINKING OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AND FOR THIS REASON...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR TUESDAY
WITH PRECIP ENDING DURING THE MORNING I-20 AND NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS AND ALL OTHER GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO ADDITIONAL
CHANGES NECESSARY TONIGHT.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE FOUR STATE AREA CONTINUED TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AND INVERTED TROUGH REACHING NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THAT STRETCHED WEST
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS ARKANSAS AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND ON TO WEST TEXAS...AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHING
NORTHEAST FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND LOWER PAN HANDLE REGION OF TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THE HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WERE PRODUCING INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN A BAND OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OVERTAKING THE CURRENT
SHEAR AXIS AS DISTURBANCES MOVE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. AT THE SAME TIME WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTH ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AROUND9I THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND REMNANT
SURFACE TROUGH. THE EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL PROVIDE
THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PROVIDE
WELCOME RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE RAINFALL MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY. THE
COMBINED PUSH OF RAIN COOLED AIR AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL MOVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO NEAR THE GULF COAST
BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BOUNDARY WILL
THEN BECOME STATIONARY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF NO RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND LOWER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT OVER THE WESTERN
END AND START TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE PAN HANDLE REGIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA MOVING
TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS. AS THIS IS ONGOING...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST SENDING A LARGE RAINFALL
PRODUCING SYSTEM INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT FROM 3 TO NEAR
OR ISOLATED AMOUNTS ABOVE 6 INCHES FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. PLACEMENT WILL VARY BETWEEN THE MODELS BUT MOST ALL LOCATIONS
WILL RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS. BY LATE FRIDAY...THE UPPER WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING
RAINFALL TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS
HINT AT A SHEAR AXIS SETTING UP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES KEEPING
RAIN ONGOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW AND
UPDATE WITH THE NEXT PACKAGE OVERNIGHT TO SEE LATER SOLUTIONS BEFORE
PROLONGING LATE JULY POPS. /06/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 89 66 88 68 / 50 40 10 20 40
MLU 72 89 61 87 64 / 50 50 10 10 20
DEQ 67 86 60 81 64 / 30 20 20 20 60
TXK 72 87 61 84 65 / 40 20 10 20 50
ELD 70 87 60 85 65 / 50 20 10 10 30
TYR 73 90 68 88 71 / 40 40 10 30 50
GGG 73 90 67 88 70 / 40 40 10 30 40
LFK 74 92 71 91 73 / 40 50 20 30 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
250 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
OVER THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST LATE TUESDAY. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 18Z...THE BERMUDA HIGH HAS SET UP WITH SLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN A COUPLE DEGREES TO AROUND 70F SINCE
DAYBREAK. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING WSW FROM THE
ERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH INDIANAPOLIS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BROKEN OUT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THESE WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. TONIGHT IS A GOOD
OPERATIVE WORD AS THE 15Z HRRR HAS THIS ACTIVITY REACHING THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AROUND 6PM AND SPREADING EAST INTO THE AREA AFTER
THAT. 6PM TO 2AM IS THE ANTICIPATED TIMEFRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
ENTER THE AREA AND REACH THE BALT-WASH METRO. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OR EVEN RETROGRADE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE
MONDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE IS MAKING FOR AN UNSTABLE AFTERNOON. RAP
ESTIMATES FROM SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE DEPICTS 1500 TO 3000 J/KG SOUTH
OF DC. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE SUNSHINE THAT HAS BEEN STRONG
SOUTHEAST OF DC. AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SHOULD SEE SOME TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON (THOUGH THE CU FIELD CURRENTLY SEEMS
TO BE STRUGGLING TO TAKE HOLD). WITH BULK SHEAR 20 KT OR LESS THIS
WOULD BE PULSE ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...IT IS A WAITING GAME FOR THE
OHIO ACTIVITY WHICH CONTINUES TO INCREASE SINCE 18Z.
TONIGHT...BULK SHEAR INCREASES AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ALLOWING
MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. PWATS APPROACHING 2IN WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY
RAIN...SO A FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXISTS FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND SLY
FLOW KEEP MIN TEMPS UP...GENERALLY LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SECONDARY LOBE OF DEEP LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SWINGS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AMPLIFYING THE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST STATES INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE STALLED
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF DEVELOPMENT FOR OVER 24 HRS. THERE SHOULD
BE A DIURNAL EBB AND FLOW OF ACTIVITY WITH MONDAY EVENING (ACROSS
THE CWA) AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE)
BEING THE MOST HIGH IMPACT TIMES. SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES STILL LOOK TOO WEAK TO PROVIDE A TORNADO THREAT.
HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. SPC DAY 2 UPDATE
DOES MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.
THIS WOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME TORNADO THREAT...SO THAT THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE FOLLOWED BY SUBSEQUENT FORECAST SHIFTS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN STABLE AIR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A SHOWER OR PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...MAINLY EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF JULY. A PLEASANT NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WOULD DEVELOP IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH
VALLEY WHERE IT WOULD BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS STABLE THAN THE
METROPOLITAN AND CHESAPEAKE BAY AREAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.
A STRONGER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
EVEN A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS
MODEL WANTS TO SLOW DOWN THE NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS ENERGY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW THIS TYPE OF
ACTIVE PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE KEPT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OR NEAR NORMAL.
IF THERE IS A LARGE AND PERSISTENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN LIEU OF DAYTIME
HEATING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD
TURN OUT TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH ONE PIECE OF ENERGY FOLLOWING ANOTHER SUNDAY...WE LEFT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW. THERE APPEARS TO BE NO BIG
PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR PREVAILS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. IFR IN HEAVY TSRA. OTHERWISE SLY
FLOW 10-15KT. THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP FOR MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/INTO THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS FOR
MONDAY...THEN PUSHES EAST TUESDAY.
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MTN...BWI AND PERHAPS DCA
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
VICINITY...MAINLY EARLY IN THE DAY. ALL OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY VEERING AROUND TO
THE NORTH LATER WEDNESDAY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WINDS MAY BE STRONGER
IN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY AT THE MTN...BWI AND DCA
TERMINALS.
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT THE CHO OR IAD TERMINALS DUE TO
POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY AROUND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.MARINE...
SLY FLOW 15-20 KT UP THE MD PORTION OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC INTO LATE TONIGHT...WITH MD WATERS SOUTH OF SANDY POINT IN
AN SCA INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTS TO AROUND 22 KT. SLY FLOW
GENERALLY 10-15KT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNING ARE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
NO HAZARD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS HAVE INCREASED TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE A FULL
MOON NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY INCREASE MORE AS SLY FLOW
INCREASES THIS EVENING. THE PREFERRED MORNING HIGH TIDE MONDAY
SHOULD BE MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE THAT SIMPLY
REACHED THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD OF 2.40 FT. EXPECT A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNE ARUNDEL...WASHINGTON DC...AND POSSIBLY
BALTIMORE/ALEXANDRIA.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-531-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-540-
541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ537.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BAJ/KLW
MARINE...BAJ/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1050 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 14Z...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER ABOUT HALF THE CWA WITH THE
BALT-WASH CORRIDOR FAIRLY CLEAR. COLD FRONT IS OVER MIDWEST TO ERN
GREAT LAKES PER RADAR MOSAIC. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...ENTERING THE AREA TONIGHT. HOT AND MOIST SFC...BUT
POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE STORM THREAT TODAY.
SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. FOCUS OF PRECIP IS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE WEST. AGREE WITH MORNING HRRR RUNS THAT
DEPICT JUST THIS.
MAX TEMPS TODAY AROUND 90F...LOW 90S SOUTH/SW OF DC METRO.
PRECIP COVERAGE INCREASES THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PWATS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY THEN AND FORCING FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY ALLOWS FOR LIKELY
POPS IN THE NWRN ZONES. FLOW IS WEST OR WSW TONIGHT...SO ACTIVITY
SHOULD BREAK UP/DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST. STILL
SHOULD BE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING
WIND AS THE MAIN THREATS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN A WARM SECTOR MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY WORKS SOUTHEASTWARD...LIKELY
RESIDING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE THERE WILL BE AN EARLY MORNING LULL IN
CONVECTION OR IF THERE COULD BE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. WHETHER THIS IS THE CASE OR
NOT...MONDAY AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ACTIVE AS SREFS
INDICATES SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR BY AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN/T BE
RULED OUT. GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT...A FLASH
FLOODING RISK WIL BE ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE BOTH THE SEVERE RISK AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH
IN THE EVENING...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN
MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF TUE...THE CDFNT...WHILE APPROACHING...WL STILL
RESIDE NW OF CWFA. THERE WL BE AN EVER STEEPENING TROF AXIS ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR THAT WL SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM. SUSPECT
THAT THE TRUE CFP WL BE TOUGH TO DETERMINE AS ENERGY FM THE FNT WL
BE ABSORBED BY THE TROF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. BY MID-LT
AFTN...THAT TRANSITION WL BE COMPLETE.
SUCH A PROGRESSION WL GNLY KEEP THE MOST UNSTBL AIR ACRS THE
TIDEWATER AND DELMARVA. HWVR...PLENTY OF SHEAR WL BE PRESENT...THX
TO THE RRQ OF A 120 KT UPR JETMAX. GIVEN KINEMATICS AND FORCED SFC
CNVGNC/ASCENT...STILL THINK THAT LKLY POPS THE WAY TO GO. SINCE AMS
WL STILL BE VERY MOIST...W/ DEWPTS IN THE UPR 60S OR NEAR 70F AND
PWAT 1.5-2.0 INCHES...ANY TSRA WL BE HVY RAINERS. WHILE THE BEST
COMBO OF INSTBY/LIFT WL BE SE OF AREA...IT/LL STILL BE PSBL TO HV
LCL WET MICROBURSTS OR HAIL SUPPORTING STRONG UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...
THE SVR WORDING WL REMAIN IN HWO. EVOLUTION OF SVR PROBS WL PARTLY
BE DETERMINED BY CDFNTL PROGRESS AND MAY BE INHIBITED BY DEBRIS
CLDS. MON LOOKS LIKE THE MORE VIOLENT DAY...BUT THERE IS A MARGINAL
RISK TUE AS WELL.
A SHARP H5 TROF AXIS WL FOLLOW TUE NGT-WED. AM NOT QUITE SURE HOW
QUICKLY THE SFC BNDRY WL CLEAR AREA AT FIRST. AM THEREFORE HOLDING
ONTO SOME POPS ALONG THE BAY/SRN MD TUE NGT. HWVR...ONCE THE UPR
AXIS SWEEPS THRU...IT WILL KICK THE FNT TO THE COAST. COOL DRY CNDN AIR
WL STREAM INTO CWFA THEREAFTER. THAT/LL SET UP SVRL ATYPICAL JULY
DAYS.
BY DAYS 6-7 /FRI-SAT/...HIPRES WL MV OFFSHORE...SETTING UP RETURN
FLOW AND PERHAPS AN APPROACHING WMFNT. TSRA CHCS RETURN TO THE FCST
DUE TO THE INHERENT INSTBY/LIFT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...ISOLATED
TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR A TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS MAY WARRANT VCTS INCLUSION BY
12Z TAF TIME. IT/S ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THUNDERSTORMS IN
PENNSYLVANIA SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD BY LATE EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT EVOLUTION/TIMING IS LOW.
LEE TROUGH AND A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO MORE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
HEAVY RAINFALL/STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STORMS.
SCT-NMRS TSRA DURING THE DAY TUE...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THE EVNG
FOR THE METROS. FLGT RESTRICTIONS XPCTD W/IN STORMS ALTHO SHUD HV
HEALTHY PDS OF VFR AS WELL.
WED-THU...HIPRES BLDS. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY LATE THIS MORNING
WITH AN SCA NOW INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANY LULL SHOULD BE SHORT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS.
TROF AXIS OVER WATERS TUE MRNG...TO BE JOINED BY CDFNT TUE AFTN-NGT.
SINCE THERE WL BE A BNDRY NEARLY OVERHEAD...GRADIENT FLOW WL BE
LGT-- SLY BCMG WLY. HWVR...THIS SETUP WL PRODUCE NMRS TSRA...EACH WL
CONTAIN A GUSTY WND THREAT AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAIN. THUS...SMW/S
XPCTD.
COOLER/DRIER AIR WL SURGE INTO AREA WED AND STAY THRU THU. GDNC NOW
STARTING TO PICK UP ON MIXING POTL IN THE MID BAY WED. WL ADD PSBL
SCA TO SYN/HWO.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS WILL PERSIST AROUND HALF A FOOT ABOVE A FULL MOON
NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. SIMILAR HIGH TIDE MONDAY MORNING TO THIS
MORNING...WILL APPROACH MINOR THRESHOLDS AT THE MOST SENSITIVE
SITES AGAIN.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-531-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-540-
541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ537.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HTS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BAJ/BPP/HTS
MARINE...BAJ/BPP/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCT-BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING...FOUND WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION ZONE WELL AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SEVERAL SETS OF
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND LWX
WRF-ARW SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING/PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND THROUGH
DAYBREAK. ACCORDING TO THESE MODELS...SOME DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HAVE
ALREADY TAKEN PLACE /BY 06Z/ AND THE RADAR HAS YET TO INDICATE AS
SUCH EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR MARTINSBURG. DESPITE WARM
ADVECTION...BELIEVE THIS IS OVERDONE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH DAYBREAK /EXCEPT FOR ACCOUNTING FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED ISOLATED SHOWER/ AND AMEND IF TRENDS CHANGE. WITH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD...ANY EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AND MAINLY
RELEGATED TO THE USUAL FOG PRONE AREAS.
WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE...ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOISTEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH MODELS INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASING TO 1.75 TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF TODAY. WARM
TEMPERATURES AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
MID CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. PRESENCE OF A TROUGH
WILL ALSO BE APPARENT AND BELIEVE THIS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INITIATION WOULD LIKELY OCCUR FIRST NEAR/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT CONVECTION THEN MAY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH 00Z NAM/03Z SREFS GUIDANCE. WHILE SHEAR
MAY INITIALLY BE ON THE WEAK SIDE...INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
LWX WRF-ARW ACTUALLY DOESN/T PROJECT A LOT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...INSTEAD FOCUSING MORE ON ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN
PENNSYLVANIA THAT WOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...WHILE BELIEVE THAT THERE WOULD BE SOME INITIAL
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EVEN THOUGH IT/S NOT WELL
DEPICTED ON THE WRF-ARW...ALSO AM CONCERNED THAT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH COULD SINK SOUTHEASTWARD DURING BY LATE
EVENING. THERE ARE OBVIOUSLY SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
EVOLUTION/MOVEMENT/TIMING OF SUCH CONVECTION AND THUS AM INCLINED TO
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO THE NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SHEAR MAY BE A BETTER BY THAT TIME THIS
CONVECTION WOULD AFFECT THE CWA AND THUS A DAMAGING WIND GUST RISK
MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING.
BIAS CORRECTED SREFS HAS PERFORMED WELL FOR TEMPERATURES
RECENTLY...AND USED THIS WITH A LITTLE BCADJMAV FOR MAXIMA/MINIMA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN A WARM SECTOR MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY WORKS SOUTHEASTWARD...LIKELY
RESIDING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE THERE WILL BE AN EARLY MORNING LULL IN
CONVECTION OR IF THERE COULD BE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. WHETHER THIS IS THE CASE OR
NOT...MONDAY AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ACTIVE AS SREFS
INDICATES SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR BY AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN/T BE
RULED OUT. GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT...SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY POSE A FLASH
FLOODING RISK ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE BOTH THE SEVERE RISK AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH
IN THE EVENING...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN
MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF TUE...THE CDFNT...WHILE APPROACHING...WL STILL
RESIDE NW OF CWFA. THERE WL BE AN EVER STEEPENING TROF AXIS ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR THAT WL SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM. SUSPECT
THAT THE TRUE CFP WL BE TOUGH TO DETERMINE AS ENERGY FM THE FNT WL
BE ABSORBED BY THE TROF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. BY MID-LT
AFTN...THAT TRANSITION WL BE COMPLETE.
SUCH A PROGRESSION WL GNLY KEEP THE MOST UNSTBL AIR ACRS THE
TIDEWATER AND DELMARVA. HWVR...PLENTY OF SHEAR WL BE PRESENT...THX
TO THE RRQ OF A 120 KT UPR JETMAX. GIVEN KINEMATICS AND FORCED SFC
CNVGNC/ASCENT...STILL THINK THAT LKLY POPS THE WAY TO GO. SINCE AMS
WL STILL BE VERY MOIST...W/ DEWPTS IN THE UPR 60S OR NEAR 70F AND
PWAT 1.5-2.0 INCHES...ANY TSRA WL BE HVY RAINERS. WHILE THE BEST
COMBO OF INSTBY/LIFT WL BE SE OF AREA...IT/LL STILL BE PSBL TO HV
LCL WET MICROBURSTS OR HAIL SUPPORTING STRONG UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...
THE SVR WORDING WL REMAIN IN HWO. EVOLUTION OF SVR PROBS WL PARTLY
BE DETERMINED BY CDFNTL PROGRESS AND MAY BE INHIBITED BY DEBRIS
CLDS. MON LOOKS LIKE THE MORE VIOLENT DAY...BUT THERE IS A MARGINAL
RISK TUE AS WELL.
A SHARP H5 TROF AXIS WL FOLLOW TUE NGT-WED. AM NOT QUITE SURE HOW
QUICKLY THE SFC BNDRY WL CLEAR AREA AT FIRST. AM THEREFORE HOLDING
ONTO SOME POPS ALONG THE BAY/SRN MD TUE NGT. HWVR...ONCE THE UPR
AXIS SWEEPS THRU...ITLL KICK THE FNT TO THE COAST. COOL DRY CNDN AIR
WL STREAM INTO CWFA THEREAFTER. THAT/LL SET UP SVRL ATYPICAL JULY
DAYS.
BY DAYS 6-7 /FRI-SAT/...HIPRES WL MV OFFSHORE...SETTING UP RETURN
FLOW AND PERHAPS AN APPROACHING WMFNT. TSRA CHCS RETURN TO THE FCST
DUE TO THE INHERENT INSTBY/LIFT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. IF SOME CLEARING
OCCURS AT CHO/MRB...BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH JUST A LOW
PROBABILITY OF STRATUS SNEAKING INTO MTN/BWI. FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR A TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS MAY WARRANT
VCTS INCLUSION BY 12Z TAF TIME. IT/S ALSO POSSIBLE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS IN PENNSYLVANIA SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD BY LATE
EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT EVOLUTION/TIMING IS LOW.
LEE TROUGH AND A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO MORE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
HEAVY RAINFALL/STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STORMS.
SCT-NMRS TSRA DURING THE DAY TUE...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THE EVNG
FOR THE METROS. FLGT RESTRICTIONS XPCTD W/IN STORMS ALTHO SHUD HV
HEALTHY PDS OF VFR AS WELL.
WED-THU...HIPRES BLDS. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY EARLY THIS MORNING.
SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED A LITTLE THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT TPLM2
CONTINUES TO GUST AOA 20 KT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 10Z. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME THIS MORNING BUT THE LULL MAY NOT BE THAT LONG
AS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS LIKELY
TO BE IN SCA RANGE AGAIN. HAVE EXTENDED PREVIOUS SCA INTO THE NIGHT.
AM UNCERTAIN WHETHER SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OR
NOT...IT/LL BE CLOSE BUT DON/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND
ADVISORY THAT FAR YET. ANOTHER NOTE IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
TROF AXIS OVER WATERS TUE MRNG...TO BE JOINED BY CDFNT TUE AFTN-NGT.
SINCE THERE WL BE A BNDRY NEARLY OVERHEAD...GRADIENT FLOW WL BE
LGT-- SLY BCMG WLY. HWVR...THIS SETUP WL PRODUCE NMRS TSRA...EACH WL
CONTAIN A GUSTY WND THREAT AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAIN. THUS...SMW/S
XPCTD.
COOLER/DRIER AIR WL SURGE INTO AREA WED AND STAY THRU THU. GDNC NOW
STARTING TO PICK UP ON MIXING POTL IN THE MID BAY WED. WL ADD PSBL
SCA TO SYN/HWO.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS HAVE INCREASED TO 1/2 TO 2/3RDS FOOT ON THE BAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS. THIS MODEST INCREASE AND A FULL MOON
IS ALL THATS NEEDED TO REACH MINOR THRESHOLD AT ANNAPOLIS FOR HIGH
TIDE EARLY THIS UPCOMING MORNING. HAVE ISSUED CSTL FLOOD ADVY.
DEPARTURES OF 1/4 TO 1/3 FT ON THE POTOMAC CAUSING NO ISSUES AT
THIS TIME.
THE MORNING TIDE IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY. WE WILL
BE IN A SIMILAR SITUATION MON MORNING...W/ PERHAPS SW DC GETTING
IN ON THE ACT.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BPP/HTS
MARINE...BPP/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
921 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO
KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL. IT WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH
SHOWERS AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CREATE A WARMING TREND TO THE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. BASED ON THE LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND FCST OF THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE IN
TONIGHT...WE HAVE DELAYED THE HIGHER CHCS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN
THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT TAKES PLACE WITH THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. THEY HAVE BEEN MORE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SE CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH...AND ACROSS THE N/NW WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD
POOL ALOFT IS MOVING IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW.
SATELLITE SHOWS A RATHER POTENT UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING IN OUR
DIRECTION. UPSTREAM SOUNDING FROM INL SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE TO THE
TROP. AS THIS COLD SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE RELATIVELY WARMER
GREAT LAKES IT WILL PICK UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO AN INCREASING AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND MORE SO
TUESDAY MORNING. THUS I AM FEATURING HIGHER THAN MOS POPS.
LOCATIONS FAVORED WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SEE THE HIGHEST POPS.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWING UP...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THUS I WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK IN THERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. NORTHWEST COUNTIES MAY
STAY IN THE 50S WITH RAIN TUESDAY. IF THE RAIN DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...MY FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
TOO LOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP
IT DRY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO
VARY ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER
AND SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
DEEPER AND WOULD LIKELY HOLD OFF THE STORMS UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL
KEEP KEEP THE RISK FOR STORMS GOING FOR SUNDAY AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES AS A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION BRING IN A MILDER AIRMASS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE A FEW BRIEF INSTANCES
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS... PARTICULARLY AT LAN FROM 00Z TO 0130Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.
AFTER 06Z... AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z... CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE COVERAGE OF RAIN
SHOWERS INCREASES. SOME IFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO LK MI INCLUDING MKG.
THE LOWER CIGS WILL LINGER MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING
GRADUALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD BECOME THE PREDOMINATE
CONDITION BY LATE IN THE DAY...AFTER 21Z...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BUT FEEL THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE TS/CB IN THE TAFS.
THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE THE LOWER CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY... AS WELL AS THE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS AFTER 09Z TONIGHT THROUGH ALL OF TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
STILL ON TRACK FOR BUILDING WAVES. FSL RUC SHOWS GREATER THAN 25
KNOTS ARRIVING 10Z TO 14Z TIMEFRAME...THEN PERSISTING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COUPLED WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AND AN UNSTABLE LAKE
SUPPORTS WAVES WELL OVER 4 FEET. NOT SURE WHY GLERL DOES NOT
REALLY SHOW THIS. IN ANY EVENT IT SHOULD BE A HAZARDOUS DAY FOR
SWIMMING AND BOATING WITH SMALL CRAFT. WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
QPF VALUES LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER A HALF IN FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGHEST VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW. GENERALLY THIS IS FOR THE LOWER HALF OF OUR RIVER BASINS.
NOT ENOUGH QPF IS FORECASTED TO CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE TO FLOOD
STAGE. LOOKS DRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-
050-056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
800 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO
KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL. IT WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH
SHOWERS AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CREATE A WARMING TREND TO THE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW.
SATELLITE SHOWS A RATHER POTENT UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING IN OUR
DIRECTION. UPSTREAM SOUNDING FROM INL SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE TO THE
TROP. AS THIS COLD SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE RELATIVELY WARMER
GREAT LAKES IT WILL PICK UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO AN INCREASING AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND MORE SO
TUESDAY MORNING. THUS I AM FEATURING HIGHER THAN MOS POPS.
LOCATIONS FAVORED WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SEE THE HIGHEST POPS.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWING UP...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THUS I WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK IN THERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. NORTHWEST COUNTIES MAY
STAY IN THE 50S WITH RAIN TUESDAY. IF THE RAIN DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...MY FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
TOO LOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP
IT DRY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO
VARY ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER
AND SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
DEEPER AND WOULD LIKELY HOLD OFF THE STORMS UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL
KEEP KEEP THE RISK FOR STORMS GOING FOR SUNDAY AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES AS A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION BRING IN A MILDER AIRMASS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE A FEW BRIEF INSTANCES
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS... PARTICULARLY AT LAN FROM 00Z TO 0130Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.
AFTER 06Z... AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z... CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE COVERAGE OF RAIN
SHOWERS INCREASES. SOME IFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO LK MI INCLUDING MKG.
THE LOWER CIGS WILL LINGER MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING
GRADUALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD BECOME THE PREDOMINATE
CONDITION BY LATE IN THE DAY...AFTER 21Z...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BUT FEEL THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE TS/CB IN THE TAFS.
THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE THE LOWER CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY... AS WELL AS THE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS AFTER 09Z TONIGHT THROUGH ALL OF TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
STILL ON TRACK FOR BUILDING WAVES. FSL RUC SHOWS GREATER THAN 25
KNOTS ARRIVING 10Z TO 14Z TIMEFRAME...THEN PERSISTING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COUPLED WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AND AN UNSTABLE LAKE
SUPPORTS WAVES WELL OVER 4 FEET. NOT SURE WHY GLERL DOES NOT
REALLY SHOW THIS. IN ANY EVENT IT SHOULD BE A HAZARDOUS DAY FOR
SWIMMING AND BOATING WITH SMALL CRAFT. WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
QPF VALUES LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER A HALF IN FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGHEST VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW. GENERALLY THIS IS FOR THE LOWER HALF OF OUR RIVER BASINS.
NOT ENOUGH QPF IS FORECASTED TO CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE TO FLOOD
STAGE. LOOKS DRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
438 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND THE LOW WITH SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8C/KM AND DAYTIME
HEATING SUPPORTED SCT/ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS FROM NE MN INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NW WI. OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST WINDS PREVAILED OVER
UPPER MI WITH A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AROUND A 997 MB LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY.
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SAGS TOWARD THE NRN LAKES...EXPECT
SOME ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP INTO WRN UPPER MI
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE PCPN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH. MODERATE/STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR
CONV AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST BY 06Z AND EAST OVERNIGHT
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT PCPN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MON...MID 700-500 MB TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY (700 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -6C) FOR NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE
LAND AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
MUCAPE VALUES OF 400 J/KG MAY BE POSSIBLE...WITH ONLY SHALLOW/NARROW
CAPE EXPECTED...AND LACK OF LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON UPSTREAM...NO
MENTION OF TSRA WAS ADDED. MAX TEMPS WILL STAY WELL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM NW FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
MAIN ISSUES THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB LOW WILL
BE CENTERED OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN AROUND 00Z/15. 1000-500MB RH
SHOWS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH CO-LOCATED DEEP LAYER
FORCING...AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING QCONV. THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SET UP
LINGERS ALONG WITH A GENERAL DIURNAL NATURE TO THE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH 18Z/15...REACHING THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THE
BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THAT
AREA...HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE U.P. TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WITH CONTINUED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. HEIGHT RISES WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE
WESTERN U.P. BY 18Z/15 ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE WESTERN U.P. TO BEGIN DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS 4C TO 5C.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
COULD STAY IN THE 40S THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE WELL
BELOW THE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHICH IS AROUND 77F/55F FOR
MAX AND MIN TEMP RESPECTIVELY FOR THE NWS OFFICE.
ADDITIONALLY...DROPPED THE TEMPERATURES A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS AS IF DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA
ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE OVER THE INLAND WEST. CLOUDS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER
THE FAR EAST HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS IN THAT AREA A BIT WARMER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...TREND FOR QUIET
WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA...REACHING NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NEAR THE U.P. BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS QUITE FAR OUT FOR SPECIFIC TIMING BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE EC HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
ITS TREND OF FLIP FLOPPING DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH TERMINALS GUSTING 20-30KT. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE AT KCMX WHICH IS MORE EXPOSED TO A WNW WIND. EXPECT
CIGS TO DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT AT CMX/IWD AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BUT WITH VSBY STILL
REMAINING MVFR OR HIGHER. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AT SAW WITH
A MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
EXPECT THAT THE GUSTY WNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW
20 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
412 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND THE LOW WITH SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8C/KM AND DAYTIME
HEATING SUPPORTED SCT/ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS FROM NE MN INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NW WI. OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST WINDS PREVAILED OVER
UPPER MI WITH A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AROUND A 997 MB LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY.
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SAGS TOWARD THE NRN LAKES...EXPECT
SOME ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP INTO WRN UPPER MI
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE PCPN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH. MODERATE/STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR
CONV AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST BY 06Z AND EAST OVERNIGHT
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT PCPN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MON...THE MID 700-500 MB TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT SFC-700MB MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (700 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -6C) FOR NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE LAND AS DAYTIME HEATING
INCREASES. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT MUCAPE VALUES OF 400 J/KG
MAY BE POSSIBLE...WITH ONLY SHALLOW/NARROW CAPE EXPECTED...AND LACK
OF LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON UPSTREAM...NO MENTION OF TSRA WAS ADDED.
MAX TEMPS WILL STAY WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND FROM NW FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS WITH POPS/TEMPS MON-WED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH DETAILS OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE. THE LOW
IS CURRENTLY HANGING OUT OVER EXTREME NWRN ONTARIO AND IT SET TO
SPLIT IN TWO TODAY...SENDING A PIECE OF ENERGY INTO QUEBEC WHILE THE
OTHER ROTATES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA. MODELS PROBABLY WILL NOT BE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT UNTIL THE 00Z/14 RUNS WHICH WILL BE AFTER A LOT OF
THE ENERGY HAS SPLIT OUT OF THE SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS NOW...AT LEAST
MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE RAIN MON INTO MON NIGHT...WITH PRECIP
LINGERING INTO TUE. FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO THE PRECIP INCLUDE THE
ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVERHEAD...DAYTIME
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
LOW...AND NLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN TROUGHING E AND A HIGH
WELL TO THE W. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN BY FAR WILL BE ON MON DURING
PEAK HEATING...WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST. THERE MAY WELL
BE SOME DRY SPOTS DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE COMPACTS
UPPER LOW...SO THOSE DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER
SHIFTS WHEN MODELS /HOPEFULLY/ COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HAVE HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 50S W AND AROUND 60 S AND E. THESE TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WITH THE N WINDS AND COLD CORE OF THE LOW STILL OVER THE CWA TUE
MORNING...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
LINGERING...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY TO
THE NE ON TUE...WITH A SFC HIGH BECOMING MORE DOMINANT OVER THE WRN
CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH
60 IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS
POSSIBLY NOT GETTING ABOVE 50. THESE TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THINK THE MIN TEMP FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT COULD BE TOO WARM...BUT
ONLY IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS. WITH THE COLD DAY ON TUE...CLEARING
/OF UNCERTAIN MAGNITUDE/ TUE NIGHT FROM W TO TO E MAY LEAD TO SOME
COLDER MIN TEMPS OVER WRN UPPER MI. AMONG THE REASONS FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY ARE POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW/TROUGH AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF AND THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT
AS MUCH.
REMAINING UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WED AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS TOWARD THE CWA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND THE
AIRMASS OVERALL WARMER...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER SFC TEMPS WITH
HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO AROUND 70 INLAND.
FORECAST WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT LOOKS PRETTY QUIET. NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WITH WEAK UPPER RIDING
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED. IN GENERAL...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY SAT...HIGH TEMPS COULD REACH 80 OVER THE INTERIOR W.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH TERMINALS GUSTING 20-30KT. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE AT KCMX WHICH IS MORE EXPOSED TO A WNW WIND. EXPECT
CIGS TO DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT AT CMX/IWD AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BUT WITH VSBY STILL
REMAINING MVFR OR HIGHER. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AT SAW WITH
A MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
EXPECT THAT THE GUSTY WNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW
20 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
317 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
WRN HUDSON BAY INTO NRN MANITOBA. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SRN
MANITOBA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT NEARING WINNIPEG. FARTHER SOUTH...A WEAKER SHRTWV FROM ERN MN
INTO WRN WI COMBINED WITH MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCH) SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA FROM SE MN INTO
CNTRL AND NRN WI. CONVERGENCE ALON LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHERE MLCAPE HAS CLIMBED TO NEAR 1K J/KG HAS
TRIGGERED ISOLD ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FROM FAR NW DELTA COUNTY INTO NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY.
TONIGHT...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES INLAND FROM CNTRL INTO ERN UPPER MI INTO THIS
EVENING TIL THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SHRA/TSRA OVER NRN WI AS SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THEY MAY EXPAND INTO SRN UPPER MI AND POSSIBLE TOWARD
MQT/P53 AS THE WI SHRTWV ADVANCES TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS WOULD FAVOR KEEPING HIGHER
COVERAGE/POPS MAINLY OVER THE FAR S/SE CWA. ADDITIONAL SHRA AND
POSSIBLY ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE MANITOBA FRONT/SHRTWV
MOVE INTO UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE PCPN FOCUS ARRIVES
WHEN MUCAPE HAS DIMINISHED TO 400 J/KG OR LESS...ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED.
SUNDAY...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHRA DEPART FROM THE FAR ERN CWA
EARLY...BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WITH WNW WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 6C-8C RANGE...MAX
READINGS SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM NW
TO SE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS WITH POPS/TEMPS MON-WED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH DETAILS OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE. THE LOW
IS CURRENTLY HANGING OUT OVER EXTREME NWRN ONTARIO AND IT SET TO
SPLIT IN TWO TODAY...SENDING A PIECE OF ENERGY INTO QUEBEC WHILE THE
OTHER ROTATES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA. MODELS PROBABLY WILL NOT BE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT UNTIL THE 00Z/14 RUNS WHICH WILL BE AFTER A LOT OF
THE ENERGY HAS SPLIT OUT OF THE SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS NOW...AT LEAST
MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE RAIN MON INTO MON NIGHT...WITH PRECIP
LINGERING INTO TUE. FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO THE PRECIP INCLUDE THE
ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVERHEAD...DAYTIME
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
LOW...AND NLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN TROUGHING E AND A HIGH
WELL TO THE W. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN BY FAR WILL BE ON MON DURING
PEAK HEATING...WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST. THERE MAY WELL
BE SOME DRY SPOTS DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE COMPACTS
UPPER LOW...SO THOSE DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER
SHIFTS WHEN MODELS /HOPEFULLY/ COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HAVE HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 50S W AND AROUND 60 S AND E. THESE TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WITH THE N WINDS AND COLD CORE OF THE LOW STILL OVER THE CWA TUE
MORNING...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
LINGERING...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY TO
THE NE ON TUE...WITH A SFC HIGH BECOMING MORE DOMINANT OVER THE WRN
CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH
60 IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS
POSSIBLY NOT GETTING ABOVE 50. THESE TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THINK THE MIN TEMP FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT COULD BE TOO WARM...BUT
ONLY IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS. WITH THE COLD DAY ON TUE...CLEARING
/OF UNCERTAIN MAGNITUDE/ TUE NIGHT FROM W TO TO E MAY LEAD TO SOME
COLDER MIN TEMPS OVER WRN UPPER MI. AMONG THE REASONS FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY ARE POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW/TROUGH AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF AND THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT
AS MUCH.
REMAINING UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WED AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS TOWARD THE CWA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND THE
AIRMASS OVERALL WARMER...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER SFC TEMPS WITH
HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO AROUND 70 INLAND.
FORECAST WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT LOOKS PRETTY QUIET. NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WITH WEAK UPPER RIDING
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED. IN GENERAL...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY SAT...HIGH TEMPS COULD REACH 80 OVER THE INTERIOR W.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. HOWEVER...SINCE PCPN OCCURRED AT KSAW...IT`S
POSSIBLE FOG AND STRATUS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE
WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF FAST APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BECAUSE
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...MENTION WAS NOT INCLUDED. ALTHOUGH SHRA ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE WEAKENING/DISSIPATING...COLD FRONT MAY
STILL BRING -SHRA AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO KIWD/KCMX IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS. OTHERWISE...BEHIND COLD FRONT...GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH ALL TERMINALS GUSTING 20-30KT. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE AT KCMX WHICH IS MORE EXPOSED WITH A WNW WIND.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT SHARPLY TO THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THERE MAY BE SOME WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS AT LEAST BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT OVER WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LK SUPERIOR BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF FOG ARE CURRENTLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE STRONGER FRONT AS
STRONG DRY ADVECTION TAKES OVER. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KTS AT
TIMES INTO EARLY THIS WEEK IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
105 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
WRN HUDSON BAY INTO NRN MANITOBA. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SRN
MANITOBA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT NEARING WINNIPEG. FARTHER SOUTH...A WEAKER SHRTWV FROM ERN MN
INTO WRN WI COMBINED WITH MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCH) SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA FROM SE MN INTO
CNTRL AND NRN WI. CONVERGENCE ALON LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHERE MLCAPE HAS CLIMBED TO NEAR 1K J/KG HAS
TRIGGERED ISOLD ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FROM FAR NW DELTA COUNTY INTO NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY.
TONIGHT...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES INLAND FROM CNTRL INTO ERN UPPER MI INTO THIS
EVENING TIL THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SHRA/TSRA OVER NRN WI AS SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THEY MAY EXPAND INTO SRN UPPER MI AND POSSIBLE TOWARD
MQT/P53 AS THE WI SHRTWV ADVANCES TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS WOULD FAVOR KEEPING HIGHER
COVERAGE/POPS MAINLY OVER THE FAR S/SE CWA. ADDITIONAL SHRA AND
POSSIBLY ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE MANITOBA FRONT/SHRTWV
MOVE INTO UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE PCPN FOCUS ARRIVES
WHEN MUCAPE HAS DIMINISHED TO 400 J/KG OR LESS...ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED.
SUNDAY...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHRA DEPART FROM THE FAR ERN CWA
EARLY...BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WITH WNW WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 6C-8C RANGE...MAX
READINGS SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM NW
TO SE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED
OVER JAMES BAY AROUND 00Z/14 WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY/CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER. THIS
WILL PLACE THE UPPER PENINUSLA AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY IN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. THE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF WEDGE OF DRY AIR PUSHES
THROUGH THE CWA. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA...WILL APPROACH
THE FAR WESTERN U.P. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE PARENT SURFACE LOW INTO NORTHERN MN. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP THE BETTER FORCING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE U.P.
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT FROM JAMES BAY 12Z/14 TO
CENTRAL QUEBEC BY 18Z/15. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE TROUGH TO PUSH
ACROSS THE U.P. THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB CLOSED
LOW OVER NORTHERN MN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE U.P. AND REACH THE
QUEBEC/SOUTHERN ONTARIO BORDER BY 18Z/15. AS FAR AS PRECIP
GOES...HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...DUE LARGELY TO THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH/INCREASED 1000-500MB RH/VORT MAX PRESSING THROUGH THE U.P.
ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
ONCE THE BETTER FORCING EXITS THE REGION MONDAY
EVENING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. STILL KEPT
ONGOING CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL 500MB AND INCREASED MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...WITH THE GFS HAS BEEN
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE THE EC/GEM KEEP THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE U.P. THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
EXITING THE CWA BY 00Z/16. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EC/GEM LENDING MORE SUPPORT TO THESE
SOLUTIONS. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING THROUGH THE AREA PULLING 850MB
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 4 TO 5C. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE
60S ACROSS MANY AREAS...WHILE NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
AROUND 77 DEGREES.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...VERY QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS KEEPS THE HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE EC SLIDES THE HIGH
EASTWARD...ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA. WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES WILL STICK WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR
SATURDAY..WHICH BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FAR WESTERN U.P.
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. HOWEVER...SINCE PCPN OCCURRED AT KSAW...IT`S
POSSIBLE FOG AND STRATUS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE
WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF FAST APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BECAUSE
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...MENTION WAS NOT INCLUDED. ALTHOUGH SHRA ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE WEAKENING/DISSIPATING...COLD FRONT MAY
STILL BRING -SHRA AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO KIWD/KCMX IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS. OTHERWISE...BEHIND COLD FRONT...GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH ALL TERMINALS GUSTING 20-30KT. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE AT KCMX WHICH IS MORE EXPOSED WITH A WNW WIND.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT SHARPLY TO THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THERE MAY BE SOME WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS AT LEAST BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT OVER WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LK SUPERIOR BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF FOG ARE CURRENTLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE STRONGER FRONT AS
STRONG DRY ADVECTION TAKES OVER. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KTS AT
TIMES INTO EARLY THIS WEEK IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1237 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
CONVECTION IS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND EVOLVING PRETTY MUCH AS
EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING. A BAND OF STORMS IS TAKING SHAPE FROM
NEAR HOLLAND...TO KENOSHA WI...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH METRO
CHICAGO. RAP MODEL INDICATES LLJ CONTINUES TO RAMP UP AND REGIONAL VWP
PROFILES AT LOT...IWX...AND DVN INDICATE 40 KNOTS AT 850 MB WITH
THE CORE OF WIND IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE SITES AROUND 45 TO 50
KNOTS.
INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST NEAR CHICAGO WITH AROUND 3000 J/KG OF
MU CAPE WITH A DECENT GRADIENT TRENDING DOWN TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. 1000 J/KG IS NOW COMING INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE CWFA. THE
LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE INTO THE AREA AS THE WAVE NEAR
CHICAGO MOVES E. THE RAP MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WILL GET TO I-94 WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE
NORTH BEFORE IT TAILS OFF LATER TONIGHT AS THE LLJ SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA.
50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS IN PLACE NEAR CHICAGO AND IS
HELPING THE ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS. 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR
SUPPORTS THE CONTINUED THINKING OF A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR THE
WARM FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO BE FROM CHICAGO TO GARY TO SW OF FORT
WAYNE. THIS IS COMING TO FRUITION WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF
ROTATION IN WI/IL AND OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW LCL/S OF 500-750 M ALSO
WOULD HELP SUPPORT A POSSIBLE TORNADO.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW COULD TURN SEVERE. A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. A COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
EXIST.
THE FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE COMBINES WITH THE
INSTABILITY AND A LOW LEVEL JET TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
GOOD DIFFLUENCE WAS NOTED AT THE TROP. THE MAIN TIMEFRAME LOOKS
TO BE 03Z TO 08Z. DAMAGING WINDS SEEMS LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WITH A
50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. GIVEN THE HIGH 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR...LOW LCL
AND LOW LEVEL CAPE...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO AS WELL. THIS
RISK SEEMS HIGHEST AROUND INTERSTATE 94 GIVEN THE FORECASTED LOW
LEVEL JET LOCATION. HAZARDS WERE UPDATED IN THE HWO AND SOCIAL
MEDIA POSTS. HIGH POPS ALL ZONES. BY 09Z NORTHWEST COUNTIES SHOULD
SEE A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD A
LIMITED RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN
DRY...I LOWERED POPS.
THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ACT
TO KEEP IT COOL WITH A RISK FOR A THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SEE A STEADY MODERATING TREND AS THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. VERY COLD H5 TEMPS NEAR -19C
WILL RESULT IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT USUALLY
MEANS PM STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL. TRENDED CLOUD COVER UPWARD DURING
THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY OVER INLAND AREAS. INCLUDED A THUNDER MENTION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW
WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA AND THE PCPN THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED. A VERY CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. HOWEVER...BY THE WEEKEND TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO AROUND 80.
THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
MAIN ISSUE FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WITH THE 06Z FCSTS WILL BE
ONGOING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL FOG/STRATUS THROUGH SUN MORNING.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY
06Z. HEAVY RAIN AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE ARE ALMOST SURE TO PRODUCE
IFR CONDITIONS OR WORSE. WE EXPECT THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
START COMING TO AN END AROUND 08Z AT KMKG AND THEN BY 11-12Z AT
KJXN. WE DO EXPECT FOG/STRATUS TO HANG AROUND AFTER THE END OF THE RAIN.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUN MORNING AS CIGS LIFT
AND ANY FOG DISSIPATES. WE EXPECT THAT MOST SITES SHOULD BECOME
VFR TOWARD 16Z OR SO WITH SOME SCT CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS HANGING
AROUND. GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN END AROUND 00-01Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR
HEADLINES. CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
AND HIGHER WAVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
AT THIS TIME NO WATCH FOR FLOODING. THE THOUGHT IS THAT THE STORMS
WILL TRACK STEADILY EAST...ROUGHLY 03Z TO 08Z. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE A STORM THAT LASTS FOR AN HOUR OR PERHAPS TWO. GENERALLY AN
INCH OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS...BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS COULD
TOP 2 INCHES. URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN RISK FROM THESE STORMS. PWAT VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND GOOD
FORCING SUPPORT MOST LOCATIONS SEEING THESE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
833 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA.
MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ARROWHEAD...THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI. THESE SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES
AROUND THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE EASTERN FA. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE UPPER LOW AS OF 1945Z WAS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND SHOWERS
CONTINUED TO IMPACT MOST OF THE REGION. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY.
WE HAVE NOT DETECTED ANY LIGHTNING SO FAR ACROSS OUR CWA BUT THERE
WERE SOME STRONGER SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1-2
HOURS. MUCAPE VALUES RANGED FROM 100-500J/KG ACROSS THE CWA SO AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WE DO EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE SHOWERS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WE DID INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HOWEVER WE DID EVENTUALLY
DRY OUT MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY
TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE MID TO UPPER
FORTIES FOR MOST AREAS. THE RAP SUGGESTS LOWER CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO DIMINISH. THERE WERE STILL QUITE A BIT OF UPSTREAM CLOUDS.
IF WE DO CLEAR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...LOWS WILL HAVE TO BE
DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TUESDAY...BUT WE DO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS GOING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE SHOULD ALSO
SEE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT...RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
MANY WILL PROBABLY CONSIDER THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE WEEK PLEASANT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEM. THE GFS
HAS A NE TO SW ORIENTATED TROUGH MOVING SE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND INDICATES THE NORTHLAND WILL GET
SIGNIFICANT PCPN DURING THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND
GEM STALL THE TROUGH WELL NORTH OF THE NORTHLAND AND KEEP THE
NORTHLAND DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...AND TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PREFERENCE IS FOR THE ECMWF AND GEM SINCE
THESE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT HIB/DLH/HYR UNTIL ABOUT 03Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET. SOME
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
FROM W TO E THROUGH 12Z. HYR WILL BE THE LAST SITE TO IMPROVE DUE
TO ITS PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW. SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS POSSIBLE
AGAIN BY 15Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 48 68 49 73 / 40 10 10 0
INL 45 70 46 75 / 10 0 0 0
BRD 49 72 50 76 / 0 10 0 0
HYR 49 69 46 75 / 30 20 10 0
ASX 49 66 45 71 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
620 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE UPPER LOW AS OF 1945Z WAS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND SHOWERS
CONTINUED TO IMPACT MOST OF THE REGION. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY.
WE HAVE NOT DETECTED ANY LIGHTNING SO FAR ACROSS OUR CWA BUT THERE
WERE SOME STRONGER SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1-2
HOURS. MUCAPE VALUES RANGED FROM 100-500J/KG ACROSS THE CWA SO AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WE DO EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE SHOWERS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WE DID INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HOWEVER WE DID EVENTUALLY
DRY OUT MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY
TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE MID TO UPPER
FORTIES FOR MOST AREAS. THE RAP SUGGESTS LOWER CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO DIMINISH. THERE WERE STILL QUITE A BIT OF UPSTREAM CLOUDS.
IF WE DO CLEAR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...LOWS WILL HAVE TO BE
DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TUESDAY...BUT WE DO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS GOING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE SHOULD ALSO
SEE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT...RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
MANY WILL PROBABLY CONSIDER THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE WEEK PLEASANT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEM. THE GFS
HAS A NE TO SW ORIENTATED TROUGH MOVING SE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND INDICATES THE NORTHLAND WILL GET
SIGNIFICANT PCPN DURING THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND
GEM STALL THE TROUGH WELL NORTH OF THE NORTHLAND AND KEEP THE
NORTHLAND DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...AND TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PREFERENCE IS FOR THE ECMWF AND GEM SINCE
THESE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT HIB/DLH/HYR UNTIL ABOUT 03Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET. SOME
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
FROM W TO E THROUGH 12Z. HYR WILL BE THE LAST SITE TO IMPROVE DUE
TO ITS PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW. SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS POSSIBLE
AGAIN BY 15Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 48 68 49 73 / 60 10 10 0
INL 45 70 46 75 / 30 0 0 0
BRD 49 72 50 76 / 20 10 0 0
HYR 49 69 46 75 / 60 20 10 0
ASX 49 66 45 71 / 70 10 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
313 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
Cold front has moved to a Effingham to St. Louis metro to Rolla
line at 20Z. Atmosphere is moderately unstable with MLCAPEs around
1000-1500 J/kg with an effective sheer of 35 kts. Still some
potential for a few severe thunderstorms capable of producing
primarily damaging winds with some large hail through the evening
hours given the amount of instability and shear in the SPC slight
risk area. Scattered thunderstorms have been developing over the
past couple of hours, primarily behind the front. A series of vort
maxes will continue to move across the area through early evening
per the RAP which will provide some modest ascent, but some
increase in overall coverage of thunderstorms should occur during
this evening over the southern and eastern parts the CWA when a
modest increase in 925-850mb moisture convergence occurs. This is
depicted well on the HRRR and NSSL-WRF simulated reflectivity.
These storms will shift south of the CWA overnight, though there
will be a slight chance of storms late tonight over northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois as a secondary cold front moves
south out of Iowa.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
(Monday through Wednesday)
The aforementioned secondary cold front will move southward through
the CWA during the day Monday as a stronger shortwave pivots
through the area. Expect additional scattered thunderstorms to
develop along front tomorrow because of this. There will be the
risk of a few severe thunderstorms along and ahead of the front
given forecast MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg and deep layer near
40kts. Storms will move out of the area by early Monday evening.
Monday should be out last warm day with 850mb temperatures between
14-18C. These temperatures will fall to between 8-12C on Tuesday
and Wednesday which should keep highs only in the lower to middle
70s. Lows on Tuesday morning look like they will fall into the
middle 50s in most areas because of decent raditional cooling and
dewpoints in the low 50s. Tuesday and Wednesday still look dry as we
will lie under subsidence in northwesterly flow aloft.
(Thursday through next Sunday)
GFS and ECMWF are still in relatively good agreement in showing that
the deep upper low that will be centered over the Great Lakes at
midweek will lift into eastern Canada on Thursday. At the same
time, another weaker upper low will be digging in behind it.
Expect a dry Thursday with the surface high bringing drier air
from the east with highs near 80 given the 850mb temperatures
around 12C. The GFS and ECMWF are in decent agreement on Friday
and Saturday that most of the precipitation associated with the
upper trough will stay to the south, so will keep the forecast
dry. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by next Sunday
as both models show a warm front moving northeast through the
area. 850mb temperatures will climb into the 17-19C range which
favor temperatures in the middle to upper 80s.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
Frontal boundary extends along the I-70 corridor as of 17z.
Activity that was along it earlier has diminished. However, still
expect some showers and storms to fireup along it later this
afternoon. Timing and coverage still hard to pin down, so just
kept vcnty thunderstorm mention for KCOU and metro area tafs after
20z. Then this round to taper off and slide south of taf sites by
01z Monday. Otherwise, vfr conditions with west to northwest winds
becoming light and variable. Though at KUIN will see winds back to
the southwest this evening ahead of secondary cold front.
Secondary cold front with some additional storm activity to slide
through beginning around 15z Monday at KUIN and taf sites along
I-70 corridor around 17z Monday.
Specifics for KSTL:
Frontal boundary extends along the I-70 corridor as of 17z.
Activity that was along it earlier has diminished. However, still
expect some showers and storms to fireup along it later this
afternoon. Timing and coverage still hard to pin down, so just
kept vcnty thunderstorm mention for metro area after 20z. Then
this round to taper off and slide south of taf site by 01z
Monday. Otherwise, vfr conditions with northwest winds becoming
light and variable. Secondary cold front with some additional
storm activity to slide through beginning around 17z Monday...so
added vcnty thunderstorm mention with winds picking up and veering
to the northwest.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1135 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
SURFACE FRONT HAD PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER...BUT TSTMS
FINALLY DID DEVELOP MID TO LATE EVENING ALONG ELEVATED PORTION OF
THE FRONT NEAR THE 850 MB LEVEL. HRRR MODEL HAD BEEN DOING A FAIRLY
DECENT JOB HANDLING THAT. STORMS SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT. ADDED SOME MENTION OF FOG NRN ZONES LATER TONIGHT.
PATCH OF MID CLOUDS DROPPING SWD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA COULD BRING A BIT
OF LIGHT PCPN TO PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TOWARD SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM RE-
DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS MORNING/S OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.71 IN PWAT AND A WARM CLOUD LAYER
OF OVER 10K FT. CLOSED H5 LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
AND EXTENDED INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
OVER WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. H7 MOISTURE OF 6DEG C WAS POOLED
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA...BUT WERE 2 TO 3 DEG C LOWER THAN
FORECAST BY THE NAM FRIDAY. WARM H7 TEMPERATURES +10C COVERED MUCH
OF SCENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. H85 DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO POOLED
IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH 14-16DEG C.
AT MIDDAY...THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WAS CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS NEAR I80.
IN BETWEEN...IT WAS CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF SPRINKLES/SHOWERS. THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...H5 SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH
AND STRENGTHEN FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...THEN SHIFT
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 09Z. AT 20Z...THE SURFACE FRONT
HAD PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE METRO AREA AND WAS NEAR LNK. CAN
SEE THE FRONT ON THE WSR-88D WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ECHOES.
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS EVENING
WITH THE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE HRRR/RAP DO HAVE SOME ISO TO SCT
CONVECTION...THEN INCREASE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY IN THE 03Z-06Z TIME
PERIOD SOUTH OF THE METRO AREAS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA. HAVE ONLY ISO/SCT COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
03Z...THEN INCREASE TO LIKELY COVERAGE IN SOUTHEAST NEB AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD FOCUS MORE TO OUR
EAST...BUT MAY MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR. SEEMS LIKE HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE MORE OF A
CONCERN DUE TO THE PWATS AVAILABLE AND HIGH EFFICIENCY. H85
CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAKER IN OUR AREA AND STRONGER FARTHER EAST
INTO IOWA...SO THIS MAY TEMPER SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER DOES HAVE OUR AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS. THE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FORECASTS DO MENTION
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH
TONIGHT...HOWEVER AFTERNOON UPDATE SHRUNK THE AREA FOR THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THOUGH AND NOW IS JUST CLIPPING OUR AREA.
THE MOISTURE DOES NOT CLEAR OUT CLEANLY AND THERE IS SOME MID
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE STORM
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
NEAR RECORD LOWS MONDAY MORNING AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TUESDAY ABOUT
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN HIGHS IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY AND MAY NEED TO ADD POPS FOR
SATURDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
STORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE KLNK TAF SITE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE AT ALL THREE LOCATIONS
OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME -SHRA COULD OCCUR
AT KOFK TOWARD MORNING. SHRA OR TSRA POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE SITES
MAINLY BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS FORECAST OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. KTCC TERMINAL MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED THIS
EVENING...THEN KGUP...KLVS AND KABQ. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH CONVECTION...BUT SHORT-LIVED IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. EAST CANYON/GAP WIND FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
KABQ TERMINAL LATER THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL TO BE STRONGER
THAN FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS...ALL DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD REMAINS ON TAP THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE STATE. THE REPLENISHMENT OF MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR AN ACTIVE TUESDAY AREA WIDE. THEN YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD STORMS. CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTER MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. ON
THURSDAY...WESTERN AREAS WILL DRY OUT SOME...BUT EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WILL STILL REMAIN ACTIVE. STORM COVERAGE WILL LESSEN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE EVENING ON TAP TONIGHT. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT RACING
DOWN THE PLAINS OF COLORADO WILL SOON MOVE INTO NE NM. STORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT AND EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NM PLAINS AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH AND FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. SEVERAL
CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE LOCAL WRF SHOW
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT. A COMBINATION OF
THE FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM AS
WELL. BOTTOM LINE IS ANYWHERE MAY RECEIVE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THIS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.
THE MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY ON TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW MUCH THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WORKED OVER FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION...BUT EVEN
IF IT IS A LATER START TOMORROW...IT STILL IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
ACTIVE. MUCH LIKE TONIGHT...THE LOCAL WRF IS SHOWING CONVECTION
FIRST DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN AND NE NM...AND STEERING FLOW WILL
TAKE THE STORMS SOUTHWARD...AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/BUMPER CAR
EFFECT WILL ALLOW STORM COVERAGE TO EXPAND AS THEY HEAD SOUTH.
SHOULD ALSO SEE STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...BUT
OTHER FOCI FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO NE NM ON WEDNESDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES TOWARD NM IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND LIFT FROM THE FRONT PLUS
A REPLENISHMENT OF MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN YET
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND HIGH TERRAIN.
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT COULD BE ARGUED FOR ALMOST
ANYWHERE. IF WIDESPREAD STORMS OCCUR TONIGHT...THE GROUND WILL BE
PRIMED...AKA SOILS MAY BECOME SATURATED...SUCH THAT ADDITIONAL
STORMS TUES/WED MAY LEAD TO QUICKER RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING.
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY SQUEAK THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO GIVEN MODEST NW FLOW
ALOFT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO WESTERN NM ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE BACKED UP TO THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NUMEROUS STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
THURSDAY...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND SEWD. THUS...FLOODING WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN OVER EASTERN NM.
AS THE UPPER HIGH NUDGES NEAR AND OVER NM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...STORM COVERAGE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE. SOME RECYCLING
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR...THUS...A FEW STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STORMS
WILL BE OVER. THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN OVER NM OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THUS THE BIGGER STORY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
MAY BE THE HEAT AND POTENTIAL FOR TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE
EAST.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK. INITIAL HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH
WETTING RAIN CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
DRYING/WARMING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
STORM COVERAGE WILL INTENSIFY REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PUSHES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. WETTING RAIN WILL BE COMMONPLACE MOST AREAS WITH A LARGE
FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE LARGE AREAS OF
WETTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE.
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT FOCUS
MECHANISM FOR WETTING RAIN AND MOST LIKELY FAVOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGHER SIDE WEDNESDAY BUT LOWER
SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO TUESDAY MOST AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
FOR THE COLD FRONT BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING IT FOR THE PAST
WEEK. WHAT IS LESS CONFIDENT IS HOW FAR WEST THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING IT STALLING WITHIN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OR JUST TO THE WEST THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE STAGE IS SET FOR A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND THE
PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS RISING. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS PACIFIC TROUGH A STRONG MID
LEVEL DRY INTRUSION FOUND ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WOULD SINK SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SPOTTY
HAINES 6 VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BUT BECOME MORE APPARENT AND EXPAND DURING THE
WEEKEND. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WOULD LESSEN AND AFTERNOON READINGS
WOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WOULD TREND BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE FOOTPRINT OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD ALSO SHRINK CONSIDERABLY AND FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD. OUTFLOW/DOWNDRAFT WIND STRENGTHS WOULD INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRYING.
BREEZIEST CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOW
WINDS...APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST.
LONG RANGE MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
BUILDING AND INTENSIFYING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BACK OVER THE AREA
THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS HEAT PUMP SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE
QUITE SIGNIFICANT AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PAINTING THE STRONGEST
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OF THE YEAR THUS FAR FOR THIS PERIOD. WOULD HAVE TO
EXPECT HEAT WAVE LIKE TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS WITH
EVENTUALLY SOME RELIEF FROM A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT UNDERCUTTING THE
HIGH ACROSS THE EAST. WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE OPPRESSIVE RIDGE AND MOST LIKELY
DOMINANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT THAT COULD CHANGE SOME DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE HIGH CENTER. COULD RETURN BACK
TO LATE JUNE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...INCLUDING STRONG
OUTFLOWS/DOWNDRAFTS...ALTHOUGH FUEL MOISTURE VALUES HAVE RISEN QUITE
A BIT THANKS TO RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SO FIRE DANGER
LEVELS WOULD BE TEMPERED SOME.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
155 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WORK OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WORKING INTO
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1010 AM UPDATE...LEADING SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH WRN NY WITH
RESULTING CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL
SRN TIER ATTM. SOME OF THE CONVECTION IS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF INCREASING POPS INTO THE
CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POP RANGE AND HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY OVER NE PA.
AS FOR SVR WX POTENTIAL THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX BUT THE LIMITING
FACTOR IS THE INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
CAPE VALUES OF 400-800 J/KG WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
ABOUT OF CLOUDS ALREADY OVER THE REGION. A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
CURRENTLY BACK IN OHIO IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH MAY FOCUS ACTIVITY AFTER THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY. SPC LATEST UPDATE KEEPS MUCH OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK,
IF SUNNY PERIODS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IT COULD GET INTERESTING.
BASED ON ENV WINDS AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CAPE THE MAIN SVR WX
THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. ALONG WITH THE SVR POTENTIAL
AIRMASS IS REALLY JUICY SO ANY CONVECTION TODAY WITH HAVE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
PREVIOUS DISC...
AN UNSETTLED PTRN OVER THE NXT FEW DAYS AS STRONG UPR LOW...WITH
S/WV`S PIVOTING ARND IT...DROPS SEWD INTO THE GTLAKES. MDLS TDA
SHOW THE DVLPMNT OF A PRE-FNTL TROF ACRS CNTRL NY AND PA THIS
AFTN...WITH CDFNT MOVG INTO WRN NY.
LOW LVL JET FOCUSES ACRS WRN NY ACRS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE WHERE BEST UPR LVL DVRGNC WILL BE LOCATED. BIG QUESTION WILL BE
AMT OF HEATING WE GET TDA. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH ALOT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACRS THE RGN THIS MRNG. MESO
DATA ACTUALLY SHOWS SFC TEMPS FALLING THIS AFTN ACRS CNTRL NY WITH
PSSG OF A CONVECTIVE LINE. NAM CAPES MAX OUT BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG. GFS CAPES MUCH LESS GNRLY 250-500. LCL WRF GETS CAPE UP TO
750 J/KG BUT INDICATES A TALL SKINNY CAPE. WIND FIELDS LOOK GOOD
HOWEVER. PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES APRCHNG 2 INCHES. RUC BRN`S IN
THE SUPERCELL RNG THIS AFTN. FOR NOW...WE WILL INDICATE POTNL FOR
+RA AND GUSTY WINDS WITH TSRA THIS AFTN/EVNG.
ACTIVITY SHUD SLIDE INTO NE PA BY EARLY EVNG...WITH BEST CHCS FOR
SHRA/TSRA PERSISTING ACRS THIS AREA TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LOW CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GTLAKES THIS PD WHILE ASSUMING A
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILT. MSTR XPCTD TO MOV BACK NWD
AHEAD OF THE NXT S/WV AND SFC FNT LATE MON AND MON NGT. SOME
TIMING DIFFS EMERGE LATE IN THE PD BUT TREND WILL BE FOR IMPRVG
CONDITIONS ACRS THE RGN ON TUE NGT. XCPTN MAY BE ACRS THE POCONOS
AND SRN CATSKILLS WHERE POTNL FOR MDT TO HVY SHRA/TSRA MAY EXIST
AS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE FNT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
THE BIG STORY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPS, AND A POSSIBLE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DURING THIS PERIOD A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST BUT A POP UP
SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVER CENTRAL
TX, WE AREN`T QUITE OUT OF THE WOODS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS WE
HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AS THIS TROF MOVES EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT
MOISTURE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TIMING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOISTURE GETS IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE OLDER RUNS OF THE
GFS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO, BRINGING IN SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE EURO NOT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
WHATEVER THE CASE IT DOES APPEAR CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND ITSELF. ON THE FRONT END I PUT IN JUST A 20%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NEPA FRIDAY BUT SAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SAT/SUN.
IF THE PATTERN HOLDS CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED THIS
WEEKEND BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
0Z. WHILE BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE, MOST LIKELY TERMINALS
WILL BE FROM NEAR KELM THROUGH KBGM/KITH AND KAVP. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE HERE WITH MORE ORGANIZED LINES OF STORMS.
ENHANCED THE WIND WORDING HERE TO SHOW THAT ALONG WITH IFR VSBYS.
CONVECTION DIMINISHES THIS EVENING BUT LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE MVFR RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED/THUR/FRI...PRIMARILY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1206 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WORK OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WORKING INTO
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1010 AM UPDATE...LEADING SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH WRN NY WITH
RESULTING CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL
SRN TIER ATTM. SOME OF THE CONVECTION IS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF INCREASING POPS INTO THE
CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POP RANGE AND HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY OVER NE PA.
AS FOR SVR WX POTENTIAL THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX BUT THE LIMITING
FACTOR IS THE INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
CAPE VALUES OF 400-800 J/KG WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
ABOUT OF CLOUDS ALREADY OVER THE REGION. A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
CURRENTLY BACK IN OHIO IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH MAY FOCUS ACTIVITY AFTER THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY. SPC LATEST UPDATE KEEPS MUCH OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK,
IF SUNNY PERIODS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IT COULD GET INTERESTING.
BASED ON ENV WINDS AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CAPE THE MAIN SVR WX
THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. ALONG WITH THE SVR POTENTIAL
AIRMASS IS REALLY JUICY SO ANY CONVECTION TODAY WITH HAVE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
PREVIOUS DISC...
AN UNSETTLED PTRN OVER THE NXT FEW DAYS AS STRONG UPR LOW...WITH
S/WV`S PIVOTING ARND IT...DROPS SEWD INTO THE GTLAKES. MDLS TDA
SHOW THE DVLPMNT OF A PRE-FNTL TROF ACRS CNTRL NY AND PA THIS
AFTN...WITH CDFNT MOVG INTO WRN NY.
LOW LVL JET FOCUSES ACRS WRN NY ACRS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE WHERE BEST UPR LVL DVRGNC WILL BE LOCATED. BIG QUESTION WILL BE
AMT OF HEATING WE GET TDA. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH ALOT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACRS THE RGN THIS MRNG. MESO
DATA ACTUALLY SHOWS SFC TEMPS FALLING THIS AFTN ACRS CNTRL NY WITH
PSSG OF A CONVECTIVE LINE. NAM CAPES MAX OUT BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG. GFS CAPES MUCH LESS GNRLY 250-500. LCL WRF GETS CAPE UP TO
750 J/KG BUT INDICATES A TALL SKINNY CAPE. WIND FIELDS LOOK GOOD
HOWEVER. PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES APRCHNG 2 INCHES. RUC BRN`S IN
THE SUPERCELL RNG THIS AFTN. FOR NOW...WE WILL INDICATE POTNL FOR
+RA AND GUSTY WINDS WITH TSRA THIS AFTN/EVNG.
ACTIVITY SHUD SLIDE INTO NE PA BY EARLY EVNG...WITH BEST CHCS FOR
SHRA/TSRA PERSISTING ACRS THIS AREA TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LOW CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GTLAKES THIS PD WHILE ASSUMING A
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILT. MSTR XPCTD TO MOV BACK NWD
AHEAD OF THE NXT S/WV AND SFC FNT LATE MON AND MON NGT. SOME
TIMING DIFFS EMERGE LATE IN THE PD BUT TREND WILL BE FOR IMPRVG
CONDITIONS ACRS THE RGN ON TUE NGT. XCPTN MAY BE ACRS THE POCONOS
AND SRN CATSKILLS WHERE POTNL FOR MDT TO HVY SHRA/TSRA MAY EXIST
AS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE FNT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
THE BIG STORY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPS, AND A POSSIBLE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DURING THIS PERIOD A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST BUT A POP UP
SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVER CENTRAL
TX, WE AREN`T QUITE OUT OF THE WOODS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS WE
HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AS THIS TROF MOVES EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT
MOISTURE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TIMING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOISTURE GETS IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE OLDER RUNS OF THE
GFS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO, BRINGING IN SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE EURO NOT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
WHATEVER THE CASE IT DOES APPEAR CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND ITSELF. ON THE FRONT END I PUT IN JUST A 20%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NEPA FRIDAY BUT SAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SAT/SUN.
IF THE PATTERN HOLDS CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED THIS
WEEKEND BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
PATCH OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED OVER BGM AND AVP THIS MORNING.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS WILL STICK AROUND BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT -TSRA TO DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AFTER 16Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES. FURTHER SOUTH AT AVP, DO NOT EXPECT
TSRA TO MOVE IN UNTIL 20Z.
IN WAKE OF STORMS, EXPECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN MVFR
RESTRICTIONS FOR ITH, ELM, BGM AND AVP AFTER 06Z MONDAY. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR IFR AT ELM, THUS HAVE TEMPO`D IN 2SM BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z. AT AVP, SHRA/TSRA MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING AND IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW IMPENDING WAVE TRACKS.
WINDS 3-8 KTS FROM THE SOUTH WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SW THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED/THUR...PRIMARILY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1013 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WORK OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WORKING INTO
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1010 AM UPDATE...LEADING SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH WRN NY WITH
RESULTING CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL
SRN TIER ATTM. SOME OF THE CONVECTION IS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF INCREASING POPS INTO THE
CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POP RANGE AND HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY OVER NE PA.
AS FOR SVR WX POTENTIAL THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX BUT THE LIMITING
FACTOR IS THE INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
CAPE VALUES OF 400-800 J/KG WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
ABOUT OF CLOUDS ALREADY OVER THE REGION. A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
CURRENTLY BACK IN OHIO IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH MAY FOCUS ACTIVITY AFTER THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY. SPC LATEST UPDATE KEEPS MUCH OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK,
IF SUNNY PERIODS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IT COULD GET INTERESTING.
BASED ON ENV WINDS AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CAPE THE MAIN SVR WX
THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. ALONG WITH THE SVR POTENTIAL
AIRMASS IS REALLY JUICY SO ANY CONVECTION TODAY WITH HAVE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
PREVIOUS DISC...
AN UNSETTLED PTRN OVER THE NXT FEW DAYS AS STRONG UPR LOW...WITH
S/WV`S PIVOTING ARND IT...DROPS SEWD INTO THE GTLAKES. MDLS TDA
SHOW THE DVLPMNT OF A PRE-FNTL TROF ACRS CNTRL NY AND PA THIS
AFTN...WITH CDFNT MOVG INTO WRN NY.
LOW LVL JET FOCUSES ACRS WRN NY ACRS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE WHERE BEST UPR LVL DVRGNC WILL BE LOCATED. BIG QUESTION WILL BE
AMT OF HEATING WE GET TDA. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH ALOT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACRS THE RGN THIS MRNG. MESO
DATA ACTUALLY SHOWS SFC TEMPS FALLING THIS AFTN ACRS CNTRL NY WITH
PSSG OF A CONVECTIVE LINE. NAM CAPES MAX OUT BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG. GFS CAPES MUCH LESS GNRLY 250-500. LCL WRF GETS CAPE UP TO
750 J/KG BUT INDICATES A TALL SKINNY CAPE. WIND FIELDS LOOK GOOD
HOWEVER. PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES APRCHNG 2 INCHES. RUC BRN`S IN
THE SUPERCELL RNG THIS AFTN. FOR NOW...WE WILL INDICATE POTNL FOR
+RA AND GUSTY WINDS WITH TSRA THIS AFTN/EVNG.
ACTIVITY SHUD SLIDE INTO NE PA BY EARLY EVNG...WITH BEST CHCS FOR
SHRA/TSRA PERSISTING ACRS THIS AREA TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPR LOW CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GTLAKES THIS PD WHILE ASSUMING A
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILT. MSTR XPCTD TO MOV BACK NWD
AHEAD OF THE NXT S/WV AND SFC FNT LATE MON AND MON NGT. SOME
TIMING DIFFS EMERGE LATE IN THE PD BUT TREND WILL BE FOR IMPRVG
CONDITIONS ACRS THE RGN ON TUE NGT. XCPTN MAY BE ACRS THE POCONOS
AND SRN CATSKILLS WHERE POTNL FOR MDT TO HVY SHRA/TSRA MAY EXIST
AS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE FNT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHGS TO LONG TERM GRIDS AS MODELS HV FINALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT WITH FROPA OCCURRING BY WED MRNG. UL TROF WL BE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST WITH SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS DRG THE DAY WED. TROF LIFTS
OUT ON THURSDAY WITH SFC HIPRES BUILDING IN. THUS, HV KEPT
THURSDAY DRY BFR MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NWD ON FRIDAY IN THE
FORM OF SLGT CHC THUNDER AS HIPRES SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO KICK IN.
TEMPS SIMILAR TO PRIOR FCST WITH TEMPS BLO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, HIGHS IN THE M70S AND LOWS IN THE L50 AND POSSIBLY U40S
IN NOTORIOUS CLDR VLY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WL MODERATE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SRLY FLOW WL DRAW WARM AIR BACK TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
PATCH OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED OVER BGM AND AVP THIS MORNING.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS WILL STICK AROUND BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT -TSRA TO DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AFTER 16Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES. FURTHER SOUTH AT AVP, DO NOT EXPECT
TSRA TO MOVE IN UNTIL 20Z.
IN WAKE OF STORMS, EXPECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN MVFR
RESTRICTIONS FOR ITH, ELM, BGM AND AVP AFTER 06Z MONDAY. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR IFR AT ELM, THUS HAVE TEMPO`D IN 2SM BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z. AT AVP, SHRA/TSRA MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING AND IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW IMPENDING WAVE TRACKS.
WINDS 3-8 KTS FROM THE SOUTH WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SW THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED/THUR...PRIMARILY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
646 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WORK OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WORKING INTO
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UNSETTLED PTRN OVER THE NXT FEW DAYS AS STRONG UPR LOW...WITH
S/WV`S PIVOTING ARND IT...DROPS SEWD INTO THE GTLAKES. MDLS TDA
SHOW THE DVLPMNT OF A PRE-FNTL TROF ACRS CNTRL NY AND PA THIS
AFTN...WITH CDFNT MOVG INTO WRN NY.
LOW LVL JET FOCUSES ACRS WRN NY ACRS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE WHERE BEST UPR LVL DVRGNC WILL BE LOCATED. BIG QUESTION WILL BE
AMT OF HEATING WE GET TDA. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH ALOT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACRS THE RGN THIS MRNG. MESO
DATA ACTUALLY SHOWS SFC TEMPS FALLING THIS AFTN ACRS CNTRL NY WITH
PSSG OF A CONVECTIVE LINE. NAM CAPES MAX OUT BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG. GFS CAPES MUCH LESS GNRLY 250-500. LCL WRF GETS CAPE UP TO
750 J/KG BUT INDICATES A TALL SKINNY CAPE. WIND FIELDS LOOK GOOD
HOWEVER. PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES APRCHNG 2 INCHES. RUC BRN`S IN
THE SUPERCELL RNG THIS AFTN. FOR NOW...WE WILL INDICATE POTNL FOR
+RA AND GUSTY WINDS WITH TSRA THIS AFTN/EVNG.
ACTIVITY SHUD SLIDE INTO NE PA BY EARLY EVNG...WITH BEST CHCS FOR
SHRA/TSRA PERSISTING ACRS THIS AREA TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPR LOW CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GTLAKES THIS PD WHILE ASSUMING A
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILT. MSTR XPCTD TO MOV BACK NWD
AHEAD OF THE NXT S/WV AND SFC FNT LATE MON AND MON NGT. SOME
TIMING DIFFS EMERGE LATE IN THE PD BUT TREND WILL BE FOR IMPRVG
CONDITIONS ACRS THE RGN ON TUE NGT. XCPTN MAY BE ACRS THE POCONOS
AND SRN CATSKILLS WHERE POTNL FOR MDT TO HVY SHRA/TSRA MAY EXIST
AS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE FNT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHGS TO LONG TERM GRIDS AS MODELS HV FINALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT WITH FROPA OCCURRING BY WED MRNG. UL TROF WL BE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST WITH SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS DRG THE DAY WED. TROF LIFTS
OUT ON THURSDAY WITH SFC HIPRES BUILDING IN. THUS, HV KEPT
THURSDAY DRY BFR MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NWD ON FRIDAY IN THE
FORM OF SLGT CHC THUNDER AS HIPRES SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO KICK IN.
TEMPS SIMILAR TO PRIOR FCST WITH TEMPS BLO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, HIGHS IN THE M70S AND LOWS IN THE L50 AND POSSIBLY U40S
IN NOTORIOUS CLDR VLY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WL MODERATE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SRLY FLOW WL DRAW WARM AIR BACK TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
PATCH OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED OVER BGM AND AVP THIS MORNING.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS WILL STICK AROUND BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT -TSRA TO DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AFTER 16Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES. FURTHER SOUTH AT AVP, DO NOT EXPECT
TSRA TO MOVE IN UNTIL 20Z.
IN WAKE OF STORMS, EXPECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN MVFR
RESTRICTIONS FOR ITH, ELM, BGM AND AVP AFTER 06Z MONDAY. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR IFR AT ELM, THUS HAVE TEMPO`D IN 2SM BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z. AT AVP, SHRA/TSRA MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING AND IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW IMPENDING WAVE TRACKS.
WINDS 3-8 KTS FROM THE SOUTH WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SW THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED/THUR...PRIMARILY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
348 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WORK OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WORKING INTO
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UNSETTLED PTRN OVER THE NXT FEW DAYS AS STRONG UPR LOW...WITH
S/WV`S PIVOTING ARND IT...DROPS SEWD INTO THE GTLAKES. MDLS TDA
SHOW THE DVLPMNT OF A PRE-FNTL TROF ACRS CNTRL NY AND PA THIS
AFTN...WITH CDFNT MOVG INTO WRN NY.
LOW LVL JET FOCUSES ACRS WRN NY ACRS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE WHERE BEST UPR LVL DVRGNC WILL BE LOCATED. BIG QUESTION WILL BE
AMT OF HEATING WE GET TDA. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH ALOT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACRS THE RGN THIS MRNG. MESO
DATA ACTUALLY SHOWS SFC TEMPS FALLING THIS AFTN ACRS CNTRL NY WITH
PSSG OF A CONVECTIVE LINE. NAM CAPES MAX OUT BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG. GFS CAPES MUCH LESS GNRLY 250-500. LCL WRF GETS CAPE UP TO
750 J/KG BUT INDICATES A TALL SKINNY CAPE. WIND FIELDS LOOK GOOD
HOWEVER. PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES APRCHNG 2 INCHES. RUC BRN`S IN
THE SUPERCELL RNG THIS AFTN. FOR NOW...WE WILL INDICATE POTNL FOR
+RA AND GUSTY WINDS WITH TSRA THIS AFTN/EVNG.
ACTIVITY SHUD SLIDE INTO NE PA BY EARLY EVNG...WITH BEST CHCS FOR
SHRA/TSRA PERSISTING ACRS THIS AREA TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPR LOW CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GTLAKES THIS PD WHILE ASSUMING A
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILT. MSTR XPCTD TO MOV BACK NWD
AHEAD OF THE NXT S/WV AND SFC FNT LATE MON AND MON NGT. SOME
TIMING DIFFS EMERGE LATE IN THE PD BUT TREND WILL BE FOR IMPRVG
CONDITIONS ACRS THE RGN ON TUE NGT. XCPTN MAY BE ACRS THE POCONOS
AND SRN CATSKILLS WHERE POTNL FOR MDT TO HVY SHRA/TSRA MAY EXIST
AS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE FNT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHGS TO LONG TERM GRIDS AS MODELS HV FINALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT WITH FROPA OCCURRING BY WED MRNG. UL TROF WL BE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST WITH SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS DRG THE DAY WED. TROF LIFTS
OUT ON THURSDAY WITH SFC HIPRES BUILDING IN. THUS, HV KEPT
THURSDAY DRY BFR MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NWD ON FRIDAY IN THE
FORM OF SLGT CHC THUNDER AS HIPRES SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO KICK IN.
TEMPS SIMILAR TO PRIOR FCST WITH TEMPS BLO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, HIGHS IN THE M70S AND LOWS IN THE L50 AND POSSIBLY U40S
IN NOTORIOUS CLDR VLY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WL MODERATE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SRLY FLOW WL DRAW WARM AIR BACK TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
HIGH BKN-OVC CIRRUS DOMINANT ACROSS TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AFTER 12Z THESE CLOUDS LOWER TO MID-DECK BUT STILL
VFR. EXPECT LOW VFR DECK TO DEVELOP BY 16Z AT ALL TERMINALS. AS
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AREA EXPECT -TSRA TO DEVELOP AFTER
17Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 01Z, DEPENDING ON TERMINAL. STILL TOO
FAR OUT TO GET SPECIFIC WITH REGARD TO LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER AND
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS, THUS HAVE GONE WITH PROB30.
LGT/VRB AT ALL SITES TONIGHT. SSW WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTN.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED/THUR...PRIMARILY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
327 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WORK OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WORKING INTO
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UNSETTLED PTRN OVER THE NXT FEW DAYS AS STRONG UPR LOW...WITH
S/WV`S PIVOTING ARND IT...DROPS SEWD INTO THE GTLAKES. MDLS TDA
SHOW THE DVLPMNT OF A PRE-FNTL TROF ACRS CNTRL NY AND PA THIS
AFTN...WITH CDFNT MOVG INTO WRN NY.
LOW LVL JET FOCUSES ACRS WRN NY ACRS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE WHERE BEST UPR LVL DVRGNC WILL BE LOCATED. BIG QUESTION WILL BE
AMT OF HEATING WE GET TDA. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH ALOT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACRS THE RGN THIS MRNG. MESO
DATA ACTUALLY SHOWS SFC TEMPS FALLING THIS AFTN ACRS CNTRL NY WITH
PSSG OF A CONVECTIVE LINE. NAM CAPES MAX OUT BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG. GFS CAPES MUCH LESS GNRLY 250-500. LCL WRF GETS CAPE UP TO
750 J/KG BUT INDICATES A TALL SKINNY CAPE. WIND FIELDS LOOK GOOD
HOWEVER. PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES APRCHNG 2 INCHES. RUC BRN`S IN
THE SUPERCELL RNG THIS AFTN. FOR NOW...WE WILL INDICATE POTNL FOR
+RA AND GUSTY WINDS WITH TSRA THIS AFTN/EVNG.
ACTIVITY SHUD SLIDE INTO NE PA BY EARLY EVNG...WITH BEST CHCS FOR
SHRA/TSRA PERSISTING ACRS THIS AREA TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPR LOW CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GTLAKES THIS PD WHILE ASSUMING A
NUETRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILT. MSTR XPCTD TO MOV BACK NWD
AHEAD OF THE NXT S/WV AND SFC FNT LATE MON AND MON NGT. SOME
TIMING DIFFS EMERGE LATE IN THE PD BUT TREND WILL BE FOR IMPRVG
CONDITIONS ACRS THE RGN ON TUE NGT. XCPTN MAY BE ACRS THE POCONOS
AND SRN CATSKILLS WHERE POTNL FOR MDT TO HVY SHRA/TSRA MAY EXIST
AS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE FNT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ENDING EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THAT THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CUT OFF LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO, THAT WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER COOL. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S,
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 50S (WITH 40S POSSIBLE IN OUR NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS). BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT, RAIN CHANCES LOOK LOW. WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AS THE MAIN TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH, AND YET AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP THE COAST. BOTH
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW RIGHT NOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
HIGH BKN-OVC CIRRUS DOMINANT ACROSS TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AFTER 12Z THESE CLOUDS LOWER TO MID-DECK BUT STILL
VFR. EXPECT LOW VFR DECK TO DEVELOP BY 16Z AT ALL TERMINALS. AS
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AREA EXPECT -TSRA TO DEVELOP AFTER
17Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 01Z, DEPENDING ON TERMINAL. STILL TOO
FAR OUT TO GET SPECIFIC WITH REGARD TO LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER AND
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS, THUS HAVE GONE WITH PROB30.
LGT/VRB AT ALL SITES TONIGHT. SSW WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTN.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED/THUR...PRIMARILY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
349 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND LINGER JUST OFFSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS PER THE 3KM HRRR AND NSSL WRF MODEL.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER IN THE EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WITH A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW...MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MUGGY LOW/MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL SHARPEN
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST
WINDS CIRCULATE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. WITH
A DIFFLUENT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD...FORCING WILL REMAIN LIMITED
TO THE SEA BREEZE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES AND WILL
FORECAST THE TYPICAL 30 PCT POP INLAND WITH 20 PCT ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE HOT SIDE MONDAY WITH LOWER TO PERHAPS SOME MID 90S WELL
INLAND WITH UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WILL BE THE SYNOPTIC REGIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MON THAT
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TUES HELPING TO PUSH
LOWER HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW
LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL DRAG A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION TUES INTO WED. THE RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL BE SHUNTED WELL OFFSHORE TUES THOUGH IT WILL
HELP FOCUS A RICH SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TUES THROUGH WED. THE COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TUES AND MOVE INTO EASTERN NC WED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES MON NIGHT
THEN RAMPING BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES LATE TUES INTO EARLY WED.
MAINTAINED TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES...TO
LIKELY BY TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL A
FEW DEGREES TUES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS INHIBITING MAXIMUM
INSOLATION...THOUGH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN ROUGHLY 1425 METERS
TUES. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE TUES AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING WHEN SLIGHTLY GREATER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OF AROUND
17 G/KG AND PWATS ABOVE 2 IN WILL BE MAXIMIZED TUE NIGHT PER 13/12Z
SO EXPECT HEAVIEST AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO FALL THEN WHEN LIKELY
POPS PERSIST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH OFFSHORE WED BUT HAVE CONTINUED
SLOWLY DECREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST...AS WE WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY BY 00Z THURS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1405-1410 WED WHICH YIELDS TEMPS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S INLAND WITH PLENTIFUL LINGERING CLOUD COVER...TO LOW 80S
ALONG THE COAST.
STILL DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS
TO THE SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN BEGINNING THURS AND LASTING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. 13/12Z ECMWF KEEPS EASTERN NC MOSTLY DRY...ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURS INTO FRI WITH DRY
HIGH PRES RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST UNDER E TO NE SFC
WINDS...WHILE THE GFS SHIFTS THE BOUNDARY BACK INLAND WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES FORMING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. TAKING A LOOK
AT THE ENSEMBLE SUITE...THERE IS LOTS OF SPREAD AMONGST THE 13/00Z
ECM ENSMOS WITH REGARDS TO POPS...AND 13/12Z NAEFS FOLLOWS SUITE.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT GFS
SCENARIO THUS MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THUR
THROUGH FRI. LONG TERM MODEL SUITE INDICATES THE STALLED BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SAT...LEADING TO AT LEAST SCT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND AS A MOIST SW FLOW REGIME REDEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUN...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS OVER THE PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
NOTED ON VISIBLE WITH DIURNAL CU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY
FLOW BETWEEN 5-8KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE...BUT GIVEN LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE WILL KEEP OUT OF THE
TAFS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ERODE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOG
FORMATION WILL BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT GIVEN SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG AT ISO AS WINDS
MAY DECOUPLE IN THIS AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ELSEWHERE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES UNDER HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. DIURNAL CU WILL
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...INC CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SUB
VFR CONDITIONS LATE MON THROUGH WED...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW CIGS TUE NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WED NIGHT THROUGH THUR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...WITH A SHARPENING TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE...EXPECT INCREASING MAINLY S/SW WINDS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 10 TO PERHAPS 15
KNOTS TONIGHT THEN WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER ALOT OF
THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS ON MONDAY. PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN
MODEL...SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 TONIGHT AND WILL INCREASE TO
3 TO 5 FEET TOMORROW WITH THE INCREASING WINDS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A
SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS WITH
SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET...WITH SOME POSSIBLE 6 FOOT SETS TUE
NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS. WINDS WILL
LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN ALL WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE FRONT REMAINS
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS THUR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND
DIRECTION LATE THUR INTO FRI...AS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A RETURN
TO SOUTH WINDS AS EARLY AS THUR. HAVE TRENDED WITH A MORE EASTERLY
WIND REGIME THROUGH FRI HOWEVER...THOUGH EITHER WAY...WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/LEP
MARINE...CTC/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
129 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SUNDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
TSTM IS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 THIS
AFTERNOON PER LATEST HRRR AND NSSL WRF MODELS. ALREADY A BIT OF
ACTIVITY AROUND THE WILMINGTON AREA AT THIS TIME. DID RAISE MAX
TEMPS OVER THE OUTER BANKS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
S-SW WINDS KEEPING TEMPS SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SUN MORNING. LOWS
FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID-UPR 70S COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
MON WITH RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST...AND WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WILL
MAINTAIN PREVIOUS TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFF THE COAST WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/NEAR THE GULF
STREAM...TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR REMAINS NIL SO DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WX AT THIS TIME THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPS WITH
HIGHS 92-95 F INLAND AND 82-84 F ALONG THE COAST.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR WISCONSIN MON THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH TUES HELPING TO PUSH LOWER HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL DRAG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION TUES INTO WED. THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL
BE SHUNTED WELL OFFSHORE TUES THOUGH IT WILL HELP FOCUS A RICH
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TUES THROUGH WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
TUES AND MOVE INTO EASTERN NC WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES MON NIGHT THEN RAMPING BACK
ABOVE 2 INCHES TUES INTO WED. MAINTAINED TREND OF INCREASING POPS
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES...TO LIKELY BY TUES AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS
WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES TUES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS INHIBITING
MAXIMUM INSOLATION...THOUGH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN ROUGHLY
1425 METERS MON AND TUES. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO
BE TUES AFTERNOON WHEN SLIGHTLY GREATER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE
REGION AND MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH OFFSHORE WED BUT HAVE TRENDED
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WED AND WED NIGHT...AS
WE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY BY 18Z-
00Z THURS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1405-1410 WED
WHICH YIELDS TEMPS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST. SOME DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
BEGINNING THURS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS
EASTERN NC MOSTLY DRY...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI...WHILE THE 00Z GFS SHIFTS THE
BOUNDARY BACK INLAND THURS NIGHT...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE
WAVES FORMING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME...CAN NOT RULE OUT GFS SCENARIO THUS TRIED TO
BLEND PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 00Z GFS/ECMWF WHICH MEANS A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURS NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION SAT...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP
SAT/SAT AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUN...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS OVER THE PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
NOTED ON VISIBLE WITH DIURNAL CU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY
FLOW BETWEEN 5-8KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE...BUT GIVEN LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE WILL KEEP OUT OF
THE TAFS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ERODE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOG
FORMATION WILL BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT GIVEN SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG AT ISO AS WINDS MAY
DECOUPLE IN THIS AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ELSEWHERE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES UNDER HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...WITH WEAK RIDGING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE TUES THROUGH LATE
WEEK...PROVIDING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH ALSO SOME
LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AT NIGHT...PERHAPS IFR/LIFR AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT GENERALLY SE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN AT 2 TO 3 FEET. OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY UP TO 5 FEET.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH A BIT ON THURSDAY WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. WINDS SHIFT ENE/E ON THURSDAY BUT REMAIN 10 KT
OR LESS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS.
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/LEP
MARINE...JBM/CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
102 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM SUNDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
TSTM IS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 THIS
AFTERNOON PER LATEST HRRR AND NSSL WRF MODELS. ALREADY A BIT OF
ACTIVITY AROUND THE WILMINGTON AREA AT THIS TIME. DID RAISE MAX
TEMPS OVER THE OUTER BANKS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
S-SW WINDS KEEPING TEMPS SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SUN MORNING. LOWS
FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID-UPR 70S COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
MON WITH RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST...AND WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WILL
MAINTAIN PREVIOUS TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFF THE COAST WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/NEAR THE GULF
STREAM...TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR REMAINS NIL SO DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WX AT THIS TIME THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPS WITH
HIGHS 92-95 F INLAND AND 82-84 F ALONG THE COAST.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR WISCONSIN MON THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH TUES HELPING TO PUSH LOWER HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL DRAG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION TUES INTO WED. THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL
BE SHUNTED WELL OFFSHORE TUES THOUGH IT WILL HELP FOCUS A RICH
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TUES THROUGH WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
TUES AND MOVE INTO EASTERN NC WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES MON NIGHT THEN RAMPING BACK
ABOVE 2 INCHES TUES INTO WED. MAINTAINED TREND OF INCREASING POPS
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES...TO LIKELY BY TUES AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS
WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES TUES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS INHIBITING
MAXIMUM INSOLATION...THOUGH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN ROUGHLY
1425 METERS MON AND TUES. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO
BE TUES AFTERNOON WHEN SLIGHTLY GREATER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE
REGION AND MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH OFFSHORE WED BUT HAVE TRENDED
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WED AND WED NIGHT...AS
WE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY BY 18Z-
00Z THURS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1405-1410 WED
WHICH YIELDS TEMPS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST. SOME DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
BEGINNING THURS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS
EASTERN NC MOSTLY DRY...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI...WHILE THE 00Z GFS SHIFTS THE
BOUNDARY BACK INLAND THURS NIGHT...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE
WAVES FORMING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME...CAN NOT RULE OUT GFS SCENARIO THUS TRIED TO
BLEND PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 00Z GFS/ECMWF WHICH MEANS A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURS NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION SAT...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP
SAT/SAT AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SUNDAY...CURRENT MVFR VSBYS AT KPGV AND KOAJ WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13Z...THEN VFR EXPECTED ALL SITES THROUGH REST OF
TAF PERIOD. DIURNAL CU/SCU EXPECTED DURING AFTN BUT EXPECT THREAT OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REMAIN S OF AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR
TONIGHT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTN...AND
REMAIN AROUND 5 KT TONIGHT...LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...WITH WEAK RIDGING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE TUES THROUGH LATE
WEEK...PROVIDING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH ALSO SOME
LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AT NIGHT...PERHAPS IFR/LIFR AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT GENERALLY SE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN AT 2 TO 3 FEET. OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY UP TO 5 FEET.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH A BIT ON THURSDAY WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. WINDS SHIFT ENE/E ON THURSDAY BUT REMAIN 10 KT
OR LESS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS.
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1005 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM SUNDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE VARIOUS HIGH-RES
MODELS CONCERNING ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
3 KM HRRR AND NSSL WRF SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POPPING UP
AFTER 18Z OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WHILE THE RAP REMAINS DRY.
GIVEN SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...WILL HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM
CHANCE OVER MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 84 TO 92 DEGREE RANGE AND NO
CHANGES TO TEMP FORECAST IS NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
S-SW WINDS KEEPING TEMPS SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SUN MORNING. LOWS
FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID-UPR 70S COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
MON WITH RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST...AND WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WILL
MAINTAIN PREVIOUS TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFF THE COAST WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/NEAR THE GULF
STREAM...TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR REMAINS NIL SO DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WX AT THIS TIME THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPS WITH
HIGHS 92-95 F INLAND AND 82-84 F ALONG THE COAST.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR WISCONSIN MON THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH TUES HELPING TO PUSH LOWER HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL DRAG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION TUES INTO WED. THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL
BE SHUNTED WELL OFFSHORE TUES THOUGH IT WILL HELP FOCUS A RICH
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TUES THROUGH WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
TUES AND MOVE INTO EASTERN NC WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES MON NIGHT THEN RAMPING BACK
ABOVE 2 INCHES TUES INTO WED. MAINTAINED TREND OF INCREASING POPS
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES...TO LIKELY BY TUES AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS
WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES TUES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS INHIBITING
MAXIMUM INSOLATION...THOUGH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN ROUGHLY
1425 METERS MON AND TUES. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO
BE TUES AFTERNOON WHEN SLIGHTLY GREATER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE
REGION AND MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH OFFSHORE WED BUT HAVE TRENDED
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WED AND WED NIGHT...AS
WE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY BY 18Z-
00Z THURS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1405-1410 WED
WHICH YIELDS TEMPS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST. SOME DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
BEGINNING THURS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS
EASTERN NC MOSTLY DRY...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI...WHILE THE 00Z GFS SHIFTS THE
BOUNDARY BACK INLAND THURS NIGHT...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE
WAVES FORMING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME...CAN NOT RULE OUT GFS SCENARIO THUS TRIED TO
BLEND PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 00Z GFS/ECMWF WHICH MEANS A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURS NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION SAT...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP
SAT/SAT AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SUNDAY...CURRENT MVFR VSBYS AT KPGV AND KOAJ WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13Z...THEN VFR EXPECTED ALL SITES THROUGH REST OF
TAF PERIOD. DIURNAL CU/SCU EXPECTED DURING AFTN BUT EXPECT THREAT OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REMAIN S OF AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR
TONIGHT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTN...AND
REMAIN AROUND 5 KT TONIGHT...LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...WITH WEAK RIDGING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE TUES THROUGH LATE
WEEK...PROVIDING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH ALSO SOME
LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AT NIGHT...PERHAPS IFR/LIFR AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM SUNDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY W/SW WITH SOME WNW WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS. SPEEDS ARE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...BUT LATEST RUC SHOWS WINDS
MAY BUMP UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS FCST SEAS ON TRACK FOR TODAY BUT LOWERED A BIT TONIGHT
BASED ON LATEST NWPS. HEIGHTS AT 2-3 FT THIS AFTN AND AROUND 3
FOR TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY UP TO 5 FEET.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH A BIT ON THURSDAY WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. WINDS SHIFT ENE/E ON THURSDAY BUT REMAIN 10 KT
OR LESS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS.
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
FOG DEVELOPING WITH LANGDON GOING DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE
BRIEFLY ALTHOUGH IT IS NOW BACK UP. HRRR AND SREF SHOW SOME SIGNS
OF FOG...ALTHOUGH WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BRINGING IN DRIER DEWPOINTS
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD. STILL...WITH RECENT RAIN AND
WINDS PRETTY LIGHT IN SOME AREAS...WILL INCLUDE A PATCHY FOG
MENTION IN THE NORTH WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE THE HIGHEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
BUMPED UP WINDS A BIT CLOSER TO WHAT THE HRRR HAS AS WINDS ALONG
THE GUST FRONT AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE
BEEN PRETTY STRONG. SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE CENTRAL RED RIVER
VALLEY TOWARDS BEMIDJI...AND THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE THE ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTH AND BECOMING WEAKER AND MORE
SCATTERED. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
ADJUSTED POPS FOR LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. MESOSCALE MODELS PERSIST IN EVENTUALLY BREAKING UP THE
LINE AS IT MOVES SOUTH...A LITTLE LESS SO IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
GIVEN THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. KEPT POPS DECREASING THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
EVENTUALLY ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN COOLED AIR HAS ALREADY
DROPPED TEMPS INTO THE 50S ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER...SO LOWERED
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING BUT KEPT LOWS AROUND 50 FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM THE MAIN FOCUS IS THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER EARLY THIS EVENING. WV SHOWS STRONG DRY PUNCH...SUGGESTIVE
OF JET DEPICTED IN MODELS...PUNCHING RAPIDLY SOUTH. VARIOUS HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING LINE OF TSRA ALONG COLD FRONT. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...0 - 1KM CAPE TO 700 J/KG AND SWI -2C BUT 0 - 6KM
BULK SHEAR CLIMBS TO 60KTS AT 00Z...YET IS POST FRONTAL. BASED ON
THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE SUSPECT MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS. 15Z
SREF 3HR SVR TSTM PROB SUPPORTS +TSRA 21Z - 03Z.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ZIPS THROUGH CWFA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER INITIAL PUSH WITH CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CAA IS
SPENT. FROM A BOUNDARY LAYER STANDPOINT THE AIRMASS IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER 12Z SUNDAY THAN 12Z THIS MORNING. SO EXPECT MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN SATURDAY. STRONGER LOW LEVEL CAA
DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER....HIGHS PERHAPS 10F COOLER. WINDS INCREASE AS WELL WITH
DIRECTION FAVORING A MORE EFFECTIVE MIXING PROFILE. VARIOUS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WINDY DAY...PERHAPS CLOSE TO WIND ADV CRITERIA
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL CAA
...ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT AND 30+KTS AT 850 SUGGEST ONLY MODEST
DECREASE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
DEEP UPPER LOW HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECAST TO DROP FROM SOUTHWEST
ONTARIO INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE DEEP CIRCULATION. WITH COLDER AIR
ALOFT -RASH POSSIBLE WEST OF RRV AS WELL. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY WILL NOT INTRODUCE THUNDER...BUT ISOLD -TSRA PSBL DUE
TO STRENGTH OF 700 COLD POOL.
VARIOUS MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO COME CLOSER TOGETHER PAINTING MONDAY
AS A CHILLY MID JULY DAY. DYNAMIC MODELS TEND TO BE WARMER WHILE THE
MOS/BC/WEIGHTED MODELS COOLER. LOCAL VERIFICATION SUGGESTS THE
DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
WEIGHTED MOS/BC VERSIONS. LATEST FORECASTS STILL PRESENT
POSSIBILITY OF RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
MONDAY.
QUITE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AS HIGH SETTLES IN AND GRADIENT RELAXES.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS 2C TO 4C WARMING AND SHOULD BE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SOLAR...YET LACK OF MIXING KEEPS TEMPERATURE BELOW
MEDIAN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (WITHOUT MUCH
EVIDENCE OF ANY SHORT WAVE ACTION) SHOULD MEAN MAINLY SUNNY DRY
WEATHER FOR THE WED/THUR TIME FRAME COMING OUT OF OUR UNSEASONABLY
START TO THE WEEK. THE MERCURY WILL STILL BE RECOVERING WEDNESDAY
BEFORE HEADING TO MORE AVERAGE LEVELS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GFS (AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF) IS PAINTING ANOTHER DEEPER LOW SCENARIO
NEAR INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED
VOLUMINOUS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THIS SEEMS SUSPECT AT THIS TIME
AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW POPS MAINLY EASTERN FORECAST AREA FOR
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AS THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMATION NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BUT THAT IT WILL BE PRETTY
ISOLATED AND NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW. STRATOCU FORMATION SHOULD BRING SOME CIGS OF AROUND
5000-8000 FT. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL MOVE DOWN WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PRETTY SCATTERED SO
WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. SOME OF THE GUIDENCE HAS
MVFR CIGS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT THE SREF PROBABILITIES KEEP THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR NOW KEPT THINGS VFR BUT MAY HAVE TO PUT SOME LOWER CIGS IN AT
KBJI AND KTVF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
741 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES BETWEEN TWO COLD FRONTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND WEST. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS THAT IS SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR
REGION. THIS UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY 45 KT OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR AND 1500 J/KG OF M/L CAPE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRYING TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED ACROSS THE
REGION EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON CONTAINED DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS.
THERE APPEARS TO NOW BE A POOL OF STABLE AIR BETWEEN THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION AND OUR AREA...WITH THE RAP SPC ANALYSIS INDICATING ONLY
500 J/KG OF M/L CAPE AT BEST ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH THE NEAR SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE RISE DUE
TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT THAT
MID LEVELS WILL SUFFICIENTLY MOISTEN AHEAD OF THIS LINE BEFORE IT
CROSSES EASTERN INDIANA INTO OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. CURRENT THINKING FROM THIS FORECASTER IS THAT CONVECTION
WILL BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS IT ENTERS OUR AREA...WITH SUFFICIENT
FORCING TO PRODUCE MAINLY SUB SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
OUR AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE CELLS WILL BE ACROSS OUR WEST...WHERE
CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH UNLIKELY
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILN CWA.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE 60S. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 50S BEFORE SUNRISE...DEEPER INTO THE
COLDER AIRMASS. THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER
60S AS THE FRONT MAY BE JUST CROSSING THOSE ZONES AROUND SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A CANADIAN AIRMASS THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOWER 70S DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR THE DATE.
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING
ON WEDNESDAY AND LAGGING COLD AIR ALOFT...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST OVERALL DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS OUR AREA.
AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO
MODIFY...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS EVENTUALLY PUSHING UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY SATURDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF IN REGARD
TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF STATES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LOWER END POPS WITH THIS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
OUR FA. THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF TRANSITIONS
TO SOMEWHAT MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED GFS ENDS UP BEING
RIGHT...WE WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN MODERATELY UNSTBL AIRMASS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KTS FROM THE NW IN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AND BRIEF IFR VSBYS. THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY PUSH EAST ACRS OHIO.
ONCE THE LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES THRU...LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER
FOR A FEW HOURS FROM A VFR CLOUD DECK. WITH WET GROUND SOME FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLUK OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN
WILL LIMIT ANY MENTION TO MVFR RESTRICTION. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
EXPECT VFR CIGS AROUND 4000 FEET ON TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST UP TO 22 KTS.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
806 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND A MUCH STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE UPDATE LOWERED THE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND KEPT LIKELY IN THE NORTH MAINLY FOR THE AM.
STILL EXPECTING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
GETS CLOSER. IF THE CLOUDS THIN ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NOT A CLEAR CUT FORECAST FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH TODAY. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION IN QUICKLY MOVING THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
BY AROUND 11 AM AND THEN DEVELOPS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM NW PA SW THROUGH THE FDY AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AIRMASS DRIES OUT FROM THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME THE FIRST ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS WEAKENING...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE. SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SO WATCHING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE SHOULD BE MAINLY
INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE.
SINCE WE WILL HAVE SOME DRY SPELLS EVEN THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKESHORE DIDN`T GO COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE..USED A BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LINGERING MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING.
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. AT THIS TIME JUST KEPT THEM
CHANCE POPS AS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS NOT REAL
HIGH...HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 60% POPS.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
FOR TUESDAY...GUIDANCE POPS ARE SOMEWHAT LOW BUT CONTINUED A
CHANCE OVER NE OH AND NW PA BECAUSE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE GETTING CLOSE TO 14C.
ALSO INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE SNOW BELT AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF SWINGING THROUGH WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL STARTING TUESDAY. A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT. USED A BLEND WITH
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER...SOME DRYING SHOULD
OCCUR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARDS QUEBEC ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AT THE SURFACE. A LOW CHANCE POP REMAINS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HEIGHTS STARTING TO CLIMB AND THE AIRMASS DRYING
OUT. LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE IN NE OH/NW PA WILL STILL BE
FAIRLY COOL WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 DEGREES WHILE NW/CENTRAL OHIO WILL
START TO RECOVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING ANOTHER 3-4 DEGREES.
BY SATURDAY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO SPREAD NORTH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED CU FIELD AND MAYBE EVEN A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN MOISTURE RETURN TO ADD
POPS TO THE FORECAST BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO CONSIDER OVER
FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. A
MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AS A WEAK
FRONT SINKS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL END
BY ABOUT 14-15Z AT TOL AND CLE...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT THE
OTHER SITES. SOMEWHAT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT BUT EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN CONVECTION AT MFD/CAK/YNG. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE SOUTHERN SITES...ESPECIALLY IF
CLOUDS CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF CLEARING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST OFF LAKE ERIE AT CLE/ERI BEHIND THE
RAIN.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT OF MOST SITES BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND BR/FOG COULD DEVELOP WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS...MAINLY AT
THE SOUTHERN SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS ON EASTERN LAKE ERIE NEAR 20
KNOTS AT TIMES. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARDS QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO WESTERLY LATER TODAY AND NW THIS EVENING. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A SW OFFSHORE COMPONENT THAT
WAVES PEAK IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE...JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS AND WAVE
REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE PENNSYLVANIA WATERS...AND MAY STILL NEED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS GET CLOSE ENOUGH.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY WITH
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASING TO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND WAVES WILL BUILD DOWN
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
WAVE GROWTH AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EAST OF
CLEVELAND WITH WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET. WATERSPOUTS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME GIVEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
OVER THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY WITH
GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
404 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND A MUCH STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT A CLEAR CUT FORECAST FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH TODAY. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION IN QUICKLY MOVING THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
BY AROUND 11 AM AND THEN DEVELOPS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM NW PA SW THROUGH THE FDY AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AIRMASS DRIES OUT FROM THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME THE FIRST ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS WEAKENING...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE. SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SO WATCHING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE SHOULD BE MAINLY
INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE.
SINCE WE WILL HAVE SOME DRY SPELLS EVEN THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKESHORE DIDN`T GO COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE..USED A BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LINGERING MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING.
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. AT THIS TIME JUST KEPT THEM
CHANCE POPS AS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS NOT REAL
HIGH...HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 60% POPS.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
FOR TUESDAY...GUIDANCE POPS ARE SOMEWHAT LOW BUT CONTINUED A
CHANCE OVER NE OH AND NW PA BECAUSE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE GETTING CLOSE TO 14C.
ALSO INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE SNOW BELT AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF SWINGING THROUGH WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL STARTING TUESDAY. A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT. USED A BLEND WITH
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER...SOME DRYING SHOULD
OCCUR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARDS QUEBEC ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AT THE SURFACE. A LOW CHANCE POP REMAINS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HEIGHTS STARTING TO CLIMB AND THE AIRMASS DRYING
OUT. LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE IN NE OH/NW PA WILL STILL BE
FAIRLY COOL WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 DEGREES WHILE NW/CENTRAL OHIO WILL
START TO RECOVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING ANOTHER 3-4 DEGREES.
BY SATURDAY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO SPREAD NORTH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED CU FIELD AND MAYBE EVEN A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN MOISTURE RETURN TO ADD
POPS TO THE FORECAST BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO CONSIDER OVER
FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 06Z REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SW TO CHICAGO AND WESTWARD ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST WHILE GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTH WITH TIME. IT LOOKS LIKE
SHOWERS WILL FILL IN OVERNIGHT BUT THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS WE WAIT TO SEE HOW THE
COMPLEX EVOLVES. TRIED TO TIME A WINDOW OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO MOST
OF THE TAF SITES BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE PRECIPITATION SAGS SOUTH...STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIPITATION AND EFFECT MAINLY
MFD/CAK/YNG. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN IN
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH WINDS POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST OFF LAKE ERIE
AT CLE/ERI BEHIND THE RAIN.
SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE AND BR/FG
MAY DEVELOP AT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN TODAY. DID NOT
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS ON EASTERN LAKE ERIE NEAR 20
KNOTS AT TIMES. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARDS QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO WESTERLY LATER TODAY AND NW THIS EVENING. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A SW OFFSHORE COMPONENT THAT
WAVES PEAK IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE...JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS AND WAVE
REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE PENNSYLVANIA WATERS...AND MAY STILL NEED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS GET CLOSE ENOUGH.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY WITH
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASING TO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND WAVES WILL BUILD DOWN
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
WAVE GROWTH AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EAST OF
CLEVELAND WITH WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET. WATERSPOUTS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME GIVEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
OVER THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY WITH
GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
309 PM PDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS OREGON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS DECREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. OVERALL PATTERN
THEREAFTER WILL BRING COASTAL CLOUDS WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF INLAND
INTRUSION. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE MODERATELY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AS THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DRIFTS NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHTING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN EVEN MORE CYCLICAL THAN WE
EXPECTED MEANING THERE HAVE BEEN MORE PEAKS AND LULLS IN THE
FREQUENCY OF FLASHES. AS OF 230PM...WE ARE IN ONE OF THE LULLS BUT
EXPECT SURFACE HEATING TO COME BACK INTO PLAY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COME BACK UP SEVERAL DEGREES. ON THAT
NOTE...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SUPPRESSED BY THE HEAVY CONVECTIVE
CLOUD COVER AND EVEN MORE THAN EXPECTED THIS TIME YESTERDAY. AM GLAD
THE DECISION WAS MADE TO TAKE A BREAK FROM THE HEAT ADVISORY.
MOVING FORWARD TONIGHT...THE BEST DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH
AND EAST AS THE JET MOVES OFF AND THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE
LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO FILL. LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF STORM ACTIVITY
MAY BE DONE ALONG A LINE FROM EUGENE NORTHWEST THROUGH NEWPORT AND
CONTINUING OFFSHORE, BUT AM VERY LEERY TO TAKE THEM OUT AS THERE ARE
NUMEROUS THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR THE SURFACE
INSTABILITY TO RECHARGE. THE CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR
A RELATIVELY LOW LCL (CLOUD BASE) AND FINALLY COMPLETE THE
TRANSITION TO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY INSTEAD OF THE HYBRID
SURFACE/ELEVATED REGIME WE ARE CURRENTLY IN. ITS WORTH MENTIONING
THE 19Z HRRR MODEL DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH OF THE SURFACE HEATING
SCENARIO BUT THEN AGAIN IT ALSO LARGELY MISSED THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION SET UP FROM EARLIER. IT STILL PROVED USEFUL FOR THE VERY
SHORT TERM (0-2 HR) REFLECTIVITY FORECASTING, HOWEVER. BEST STORM
SHEAR WILL STAY OVER THE CASCADES AND FAR NORTH WITH A MODERATE HAIL
THREAT UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS. 1/2 INCH WAS THE LARGEST REPORT
RECEIVED THOUGH WAS NOT NECESSARILY FROM THE ABSOLUTE STORM
CORE.
LATER THIS EVENING WILL SEE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT GET PUSHED TO THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA INCLUSIVE OF THE 3 VOLCANO
TRIANGLE (MT ST HELENS, MT HOOD, AND MT ADAMS). SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS APPEAR TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE CASCADES AND THEN
NORTH OF SALEM AND TILLAMOOK. FINAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HANG ON AS
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY LEAVES OUR AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER STRATUS INTRUSION COMING UP THE COLUMBIA AND
SEEPING THROUGH THE LANE COUNTY GAPS. EXPECT A STRETCH FROM ROUGHLY
SALEM TO CORVALLIS WILL STAY OUT OF THE STRATUS AS THE NORTH AND
SOUTH SEGMENTS COME TOGETHER OVER THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL LIKELY RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TODAY
AS HEIGHTS RAPIDLY REBUILD AND SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR. MAY GET SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE TERRAIN AND SOME SPOTTY CLOUDS OVER
THE VALLEY. STRATUS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME BURNING OFF THE NORTH
COAST BUT SHOULD EASE OFF THE CENTRAL COAST AND REMAIN IN VIEW.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH
COASTAL STRATUS BACKING SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. /JBONK
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SLIDE DOWN THE B.C. AND WASHINGTON COASTS WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...JUST CLIPPING NW OREGON. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE MARINE
CLOUDS AND SOME COOLING FOR THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD SATURDAY FOR MORE WARMING OVER THE AREA. TJ
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
BASES GENERALLY 8 TO 12 THOUSAND FEET. AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES
MORE MOIST EXPECT BASES TO LOWER SOME BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
6000 FEET. THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FOCUS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
CENTRAL COAST AND WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. MARINE
INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST AND KEEP IFR AND
AREAS OF LIFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND UP AGAINST THE COAST
RANGE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WIND SURGE IS ALREADY
PUSHING STRATUS INTO THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. EXPECT CIGS
THERE TO LOWER SOME THIS EVENING AND COULD SOME AREAS OF IFR. IFR
STRATUS WILL SPREAD DOWN THE COLUMBIA RIVER 06-08Z AND REACH KPDX
AROUND 11Z. EXPECT STRATUS TO BREAK OUT IN THE VALLEY ABOUT 19Z.
WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. SCHNEIDER
KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO CHANGES. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID CLOUDS
WITH VFR CIGS NEXT 24 HRS. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OFF AND ON THROUGH 06Z. THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SMALL HAIL AT THE TERMINAL 23Z-04Z. IFR STRATUS LIKELY TO REACH
THE TERMINAL 11Z- 16Z. SCHNEIDER
&&
.MARINE...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH
OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...SOME WITH SMALL HAIL. DISTURBANCE SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PAC TODAY AND
TONIGHT...KEEPING LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NW. NW WINDS LIKELY TO
INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE AND
INCREASE IN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WINDS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. SCHNEIDER
BUOYS ARE NOW SHOWING THE LONG AWAITED WESTERLY LONG PERIOD
SWELL...RUNNING ABOUT 2 TO 3 FEET. MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NORTHWEST WINDS GENERATE A
MORE DOMINANT SHORTER PERIOD 7-9 SECOND SWELL. EVEN THOUGH THERE
IS RELATIVELY LOW SWELL...WITH THE LONG PERIOD AND THE VERY STRONG
EBB CURRENT ON THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DURING THE STRONG EBB MONDAY MORNING. SCHNEIDER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
JUST OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST BY LATE EVENING AND THEN SHIFT INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON BY SUNRISE MONDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT FAVORING THE NORTH ZONES.
STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL REMAIN PRIMARY
THREATS WITH ANY STORM. ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RETURN
TO HOT CONDITIONS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME AREAS COULD
GET CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAT CONTINUES
WEDNESDAY...BUT LONGER RANGE CHARTS HINT AT A MINOR COOLING TREND
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR... HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CASCADE
FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL
COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-
GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON
CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN
COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WILLAPA
HILLS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM PDT MONDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
728 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY MONDAY. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
HANG UP TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE BRIEFLY...BUT EVENTUALLY
PASS THROUGH AND USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR MIDWEEK. THE
COOL CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A TROUGH ALOFT IS PRODUCING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT IS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST PA AT 09Z. THIS FEATURE IS TIMED TO
CROSS THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE
SHOWERS WILL START TO PULL FROM SOME LOWER- DEWPOINT AIR AS IT
MOVES INTO THE ALLEGHENIES...AND SHOULD WEAKEN AND PERHAPS
DISSIPATE BY 12Z AS IT TRIES TO GET INTO THE CENTRAL MTS. THIS
FEATURE IS PRACTICALLY IGNORED BY THE RAP AND HRRR. HOWEVER...MOST
MODELS DO DEVELOP HIGH INSTABILITY AND BUILD CAPE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
IF THE CLOUD DEBRIS AND COOLING EFFECTS THEREOF ARE NOT TOO
SIGNIFICANT TODAY...THE CAPES THIS AFTN COULD TOP 1500 JOULES. THE
SPC HAS ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORCING FROM THE MCC TO OUR NW ROLLS THROUGH
RIGHT DURING PEAK HEATING AS WELL. WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING
TO THE WX GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT NOT MENTION SEVERE OUTSIDE THE
HWO. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY ACROSS THE NRN TIER...BUT THE SPEED
OF THE CELLS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR A SINGLE BURST OF RAIN TO
MAKE ANY FLOODING. MULTIPLE/REPEATED STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...AND THIS MAY
CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING. FFG/S CONTINUE TO BE RATHER HIGH AND SERIOUS
PROBLEMS/FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NEAR LEBANON AND LANCASTER HAS LOWERED FLOOD GUIDANCE
THERE...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE MORE-SCATTERED AROUND THAT LOCAL
AREA TODAY.
THE THICKNESS/PERSISTENCE OF THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL BE THE
TRICK TO WHERE TEMPS GO. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED
CONVECTION/RAIN - WILL HANG WITH CONTINUITY AND ADD ABOUT 10F TO
THE CURRENT TEMPS IN THE NW AND ABOUT 15F TO THE CURRENT TEMPS IN
THE SE FOR MAXES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONVERGENCE WILL CONCENTRATE FROM JST-UNV-IPT THIS EVENING...AND
ONLY SINK SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. BUT THIS FIRST SHOT OF COOLER AIR
FROM THE NORTHWEST IS NOT ENOUGH TO DISPLACE THE WARM AIR AND HIGH
MOISTURE SO ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
REDEVELOPMENT IS ALMOST SURELY IN THE CARDS FOR MONDAY AS CLOUDS
THIN BRIEFLY AND JULY SUN STIRS UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER MOST
OF THE AREA. SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FROM SPC IS HELD TO JUST THE S/SE
THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THAT STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH LOW-LEVEL AMBIENT
MOISTURE STILL HIGH AND OVERALL MOISTURE HIGH WITH PWATS BETWEEN
1.5 AND 2 INCHES. WILL HOLD THE CATG POPS TO THE SE...BUT GO
LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE IS MUCH QUICKER TO PUSH THE FRONT
THROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THOUGH
THE LATEST RUN HAS OPENED UP THE CLOSED LOW. THE EC DEVELOPS A
COHERENT SFC LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND MOVES IT TO OUR W/N ON
TUESDAY AS IT DEEPENS TO NEAR 1003MB.
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MUCH OF
NORTH AMERICA BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THE BRUNT OF THE GREATEST 850-700 MB TEMP ANOMALIES AND
ASSOCIATED BELOW NORMAL 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE AIMED AT THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AND MID MISS VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OUR
REGION RESIDING ON THE ACTIVE/EASTERN SIDE OF THIS SLOW MOVING
FEATURE.
AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS DRIVEN SSE INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE MIDWEST TROUGH...PROLONGED HIGH PWAT AIR /AND LIFT
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET/ MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SERN ZONES WITH SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON TSRA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PATTERN OVER THE NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA APPEARS TO DE-
AMPLIFY LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGINS TO SHEAR
OUT TO THE NE.
THE DRIEST PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL CANT BE RULED OUT
EITHER OF THOSE TWO DAYS.
TEMPS START OUT AOA NORMAL PRECEDING THE CFROPA NEXT SUNDAY...AND
PERHAPS MONDAY ACROSS THE SE ZONES...THEN COOL TO AT LEAST 4-6F
BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF TSRA IMPACTS TO THE
NW MTNS TODAY. SCT SHRA/TSRA APPROACHING KBFD NOW WILL SPREAD
SEWD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT SITES WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSRA WITH MAINLY BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR TO MVFR.
TUES-WED...THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
514 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY MONDAY. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
HANG UP TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE BRIEFLY...BUT EVENTUALLY
PASS THROUGH AND USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR MIDWEEK. THE
COOL CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A TROUGH ALOFT IS PRODUCING A STREGTHENING BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST PA AT 09Z. THIS
FEATURE IS TIMED TO CROSS THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL START TO PULL FROM SOME LOWER-
DEWPOINT AIR AS IT MOVES INTO THE ALLEGHENIES...AND SHOULD WEAKEN
AND PERHAPS DISSIPATE BY 12Z AS IT TRIES TO GET INTO THE CENTRAL
MTS. THIS FEATURE IS PRACTICALLY IGNORED BY THE RAP AND HRRR.
HOWEVER...MOST MODELS DO DEVELOP HIGH INSTABILITY AND BUILD CAPE
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
IF THE CLOUD DEBRIS AND COOLING EFFECTS THEREOF ARE NOT TOO
SIGNIFICANT TODAY...THE CAPES THIS AFTN COULD TOP 1500 JOULES. THE
SPC HAS ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORCING FROM THE MCC TO OUR NW ROLLS THROUGH
RIGHT DURING PEAK HEATING AS WELL. WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING
TO THE WX GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT NOT MENTION SEVERE OUTSIDE THE
HWO. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY ACROSS THE NRN TIER...BUT THE SPEED
OF THE CELLS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR A SINGLE BURST OF RAIN TO
MAKE ANY FLOODING. MULTIPLE/REPEATED STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...AND THIS MAY
CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING. FFG/S CONTINUE TO BE RATHER HIGH AND SERIOUS
PROBLEMS/FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN NEAR LEBANON AND LANCASTER HAS LOWERED FLOOD GUIDANCE
THERE...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE MORE-SCATTERED AROUND THAT LOCAL
AREA TODAY.
THE THICKNESS/PERSISTENCE OF THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL BE THE
TRICK TO WHERE TEMPS GO. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED
CONVECTION/RAIN - WILL HANG WITH CONTINUITY AND ADD ABOUT 10F TO
THE CURRENT TEMPS IN THE NW AND ABOUT 15F TO THE CURRENT TEMPS IN
THE SE FOR MAXES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CONVERGENCE WILL CONCENTRATE FROM JST-UNV-IPT THIS EVENING...AND
ONLY SINK SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. BUT THIS FIRST SHOT OF COOLER AIR
FROM THE NORTHWEST IS NOT ENOUGH TO DISPLACE THE WARM AIR AND HIGH
MOISTURE SO ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
REDEVELOPMENT IS ALMOST SURELY IN THE CARDS FOR MONDAY AS CLOUDS
THIN BRIEFLY AND JULY SUN STIRS UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER MOST
OF THE AREA. SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FROM SPC IS HELD TO JUST THE S/SE
THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THAT STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH LOW-LEVEL AMBIENT
MOISTURE STILL HIGH AND OVERALL MOISTURE HIGH WITH PWATS BETWEEN
1.5 AND 2 INCHES. WILL HOLD THE CATG POPS TO THE SE...BUT GO
LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE IS MUCH QUICKER TO PUSH THE FRONT
THROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THOUGH
THE LATEST RUN HAS OPENED UP THE CLOSED LOW. THE EC DEVELOPS A
COHERENT SFC LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND MOVES IT TO OUR W/N ON
TUESDAY AS IT DEEPENS TO NEAR 1003MB.
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MUCH OF
NORTH AMERICA BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THE BRUNT OF THE GREATEST 850-700 MB TEMP ANOMALIES AND
ASSOCIATED BELOW NORMAL 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE AIMED AT THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AND MID MISS VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OUR
REGION RESIDING ON THE ACTIVE/EASTERN SIDE OF THIS SLOW MOVING
FEATURE.
AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS DRIVEN SSE INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE MIDWEST TROUGH...PROLONGED HIGH PWAT AIR /AND LIFT
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET/ MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SERN ZONES WITH SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON TSRA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PATTERN OVER THE NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA APPEARS TO DE-
AMPLIFY LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGINS TO SHEAR
OUT TO THE NE.
THE DRIEST PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL CANT BE RULED OUT
EITHER OF THOSE TWO DAYS.
TEMPS START OUT AOA NORMAL PRECEDING THE CFROPA NEXT SUNDAY...AND
PERHAPS MONDAY ACROSS THE SE ZONES...THEN COOL TO AT LEAST 4-6F
BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.
MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND SUSQUEHANNA
REGION TAF SITES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
RAINFALL SATURDAY EVENING WILL AID IN FOG FORMATION AT KMDT AND
KLNS.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF TSRA IMPACTS
TO THE NW MTNS SUNDAY. RA CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
FROM NW TO SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT SITES WILL REMAIN MAINLY
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSRA WITH MAINLY BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR TO MVFR.
TUES-WED...THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/COLBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
115 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...BEFORE A FRONT APPROACHES. AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FROM MID TO LATE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE LOWERED PER RADAR TRENDS AND CLOUD
COVER FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED FORM THE LATEST NAM
AND ADJMAV.
AS OF 10 PM...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE ONLY A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. I WILL UPDATE TO LOWER POPS
TO SCHC. FOG HAS STARTED TO FORM ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTN
VALLEYS...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
AS OF 740 PM...THE FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD. I WILL UPDATE TO
ADJUST SKY AND TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR MTN VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE AND
DURATION THAN THIS MORNING. KCAE RADAR INDICATES THAT A SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY WAS TRACKING STEADILY WEST. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY...GENERALLY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.
AS 530 PM...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE. SCT
CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS HAS TRENDED WEAKER OVER THE PAST HOUR...BUT
COVERAGE HAS REMAINED NEARLY UNCHANGED. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO ALIGN SKY WITH SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND TO TWEAK TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...CHANGES TO FORECAST WILL BE MINOR.
AT 245 PM EDT SATURDAY... CURRENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES CAPES OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ARE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. RAP FORECAST INTO THE EVENING SHOWS CAPE
PERSISTS FOR A WHILE IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES... ALIGNED WITH THE
AXIS OF HIGH TERRAIN... BUT CAPE DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE
EAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE STORMS MIGHT CONTINUE WELL AFTER SUNSET. VERY
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER COULD RESULT IN SLOWLY MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE... PRIMARY FEATURE ALOFT AFFECTING OUR WEATHER THROUGH
SUNDAY IS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WEST COAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES TO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE WITH A VERY
WEAK GRADIENT WILL COVER THE REGION. AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. ON SUNDAY... THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL WITHDRAW WESTWARD A BIT... BUT THROUGH TOMORROW THE RIDGE
IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY PLAYER IN CONTINUING THE CURRENT PERIOD
OF GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE THUS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CAPE VALUES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE HELD AT BAY BY A RATHER WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILE. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE... BUT CUMULUS AND TOWERING
CUMULUS SHOULD DOMINATE THE SKY IN OUR PIEDMONT ZONES TOMORROW. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 70 IN THE PIEDMONT AND IN THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL... PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT A FEW LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD INITIALIZES
SUNDAY EVENING WITH A BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ROTATING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
WARM/MOIST AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECTING ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN AT FORECAST INITIALIZATION DUE TO IMPROVED INSTABILITY AXIS
AND WEAK SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. CHANCE LEVEL POPS WILL BE
FEATURED INITIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN BEFORE TAPERING DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS BY DAYBREAK. BY MONDAY MORNING...THE
FIRST...AND WEAKER OF TWO COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ADJACENT WEAK UPPER IMPULSE COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY INTRUSION WILL SPAWN CONVECTION ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. DUE TO
THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN DAYS PAST...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH TO YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. THUS...EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPILL OUT
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS
MONDAY EVENING. AS SAID ABOVE...SUBSTANTIAL CAPE WILL BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT SOME DEEPER UPDRAFTS LEADING TO A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...DESPITE WEAKER YET
IMPROVING SHEAR. FORECAST WILL FEATURE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOUNTAIN/FOOTHILLS ZONES WHILE LOWER CHANCE POPS ARE
HIGHLIGHTED SOUTH EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE NC/SC
PIEDMONTS.
TUESDAY MORNING THE ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL HAVE ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATED AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL NC...SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MIDLANDS OF SC. AT THE SAME TIME THE RATHER
DEEP/IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY
MORNING...EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS BY MID/LATE
MORNING...THEN FINALLY FURTHER EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT REGIONS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE
CYCLONE TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AND AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE
TROF ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAINS OF NC LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WEAK/DIFFUSE BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING/STRONG COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT UPPER SUPPORT...SHEAR...AND BUOYANCY IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD
LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WORDING IN THE HWO FOR
BOTH MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILS AMONGST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
COMBINE WITH PRECIPITATION TO KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO
THE EAST ALLOWING FOR POPS TO TREND DOWN...ALONG WITH TEMPS. LOWS
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
LOWER TERRAIN WHERE THE FROPA OCCURS LATER...WHILE THE HIGH TERRAIN
WILL SEE LOWS ON THE ORDER OF 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SAT...A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS ON WED AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES. DEEP LAYER DRYING IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING/STALLING COLD
FRONT...WITH MAINLY NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OVER FROM THE N...AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD DIP TO TWO
CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL BY WED AFTN. AS THE WEAK HIGH SETTLES INTO
PLACE TO OUR N...LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COULD DEVELOP INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS BY THU. IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE PROFILES...BUT SLIGHTLY IMPROVED BL RH COULD HELP
TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE MTNS.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THU
AFTN...POSSIBLY MORE IF WE CLOUD UP QUICKER.
THOUGH SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST BY LATE WEEK...THERE IS
REASONABLE CONSENSUS REGARDING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE BROAD TROUGH ON THU...AND THEN MOVING TO THE
BASE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY FRI. THIS MAY BRING A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION...INTERACTING
WITH THE WEAK SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING SOME
DEGREE OF COLD AIR DAMMING FRI INTO SAT. WILL KEEP MAXES WELL BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MAINLY CHC POPS...HIGHEST NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. SW WINDS WILL PERSIST...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE
DAY. WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT AFTER SUNSET AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STARTS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL LIMIT LIFT.
GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR CIG OR VSBY RESTRICITONS...ALTHOUGH MODEL
TIME HEIGHTS DO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND DAYBREAK.
KAVL...MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS DAYBREAK RESTRICTIONS...AND PERSISTENCE
FROM YESTERDAY WILL BE USED. EXPECT LIFR TO VLIFR VSBY AND CIG
BEFORE DAWN...RETURNING TO VFR BY MID MORNING. SSW WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY DURING THE DAY...AND MAY STAY UP A BIT AFTER SUNSET AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE
CHANCE AT KAVL WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
ELSEWHERE...VFR. SW WINDS WILL PERSIST...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE
DAY...AND NOT DIMINSIHING AS MUCH AFTER SUNSET AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED BY WARM AIR ALOFT.
OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. VFR WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 69% MED 74% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...JAT/LGL/NED
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
818 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX FORECAST THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER-TROUGH PUSHES A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR COVERAGE HAS BEEN
MUCH LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED TODAY...PARTLY BECAUSE WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAVE REINFORCED A CAPPING INVERSION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...LIMITING DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
EVENING AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS...SOME ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE
INSTABILITY VALUES WILL STILL BE APPRECIABLE. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM MIDDLE
TENNESSEE/CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND TRACK ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40
CORRIDOR.
LATER ON TONIGHT...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR THE
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR
IS STILL VERY PESSIMISTIC ON THE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT...AND SHOWS THE COMPLEX OVER WESTERN/MIDDLE
TENNESSEE MOVING SOUTH INTO ALABAMA AND NOT FILLING IN BACK NORTH
AND EAST. THE NAM IS A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BUT DOES NOT SHOW ANY ROBUST QPF SIGNALS UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHERN VALLEY. WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND A
SOLID BOUNDARY IN PLACE TO FOCUS THE MOISTURE...STILL FEEL THAT
LIKELY POPS WERE WARRANTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
LOW-END CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY
AREAWIDE IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES LATER
TONIGHT.
SHOULD COVERAGE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A FAVORABLE
SET-UP FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT VALUES...
BOUNDARY...AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK
OF STORM COVERAGE TO THIS POINT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES ATTM. BUT...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 84 60 82 / 80 70 20 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 80 59 80 / 70 70 20 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 80 57 81 / 70 70 20 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 76 55 78 / 70 90 30 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
316 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THIS MORNING WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE...AS SHOWN ON 00Z OHX
SOUNDING WITH A PWAT OF 1.7 INCHES...ALON WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S PLATEAU TO LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY.
MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE ANY CONVECTION WILL BE THE PLATEAU AND
NORTHERN ZONES AS HRRR SUGGESTS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. DESPITE POSSIBLE PRECIP...STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER HOT
DAY AREAWIDE AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S.
CHANGES IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN BEGIN TONIGHT AS AN UNUSUALLY
STRONG TROUGH FOR MID JULY DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS...FORCING AN ALMOST FALL-LIKE COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE/REDEVELOP ACROSS
THE MIDWEST TODAY THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY
REACHING OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF LOW POPS TONIGHT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. AS FRONT EDGES
CLOSER ON MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID STATE FROM MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WARRANTING LIKELY POPS. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT THE ENTIRE STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF MORNING CONVECTION ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT LACKLUSTER 00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK TO KEEP SEVERE
POTENTIAL ISOLATED ATTM. MAIN THREATS AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...FORCING PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SPECTACULAR WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60. DESPITE THESE UNUSUALLY COOL TEMPS...RECORD
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S DO NOT APPEAR IN JEOPARDY ATTM. 00Z
GFS/ECMWF IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON UPPER PATTERN TAKING SHAPE
FORM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE
SETTING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND A DEEP TROUGH REMAINING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MID STATE IN NEAR TO
EVEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WHILE SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS...WITH NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 95 73 90 69 / 20 30 60 60
CLARKSVILLE 94 71 88 66 / 20 30 60 60
CROSSVILLE 88 68 85 67 / 20 20 60 60
COLUMBIA 95 72 90 70 / 20 20 60 60
LAWRENCEBURG 95 71 90 70 / 20 20 60 60
WAVERLY 95 71 88 66 / 20 30 60 60
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1159 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION SECTION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014...CORRECTED/
UPDATED...
UPDATED FOR ADDING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
DISCUSSION...
A FEW POP UP THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI IN THE HIGH CENTER OVER THE PAST
HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE 7-9PM TIME
FRAME WITH THE LINGERING SOLAR HEATING. ALSO AS A RESULT CLOUD
COVER HAS INCREASED IN THIS REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED THE EVENING
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
JAB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...95 PERCENT OF THE FORECAST WILL SEE NOTHING FROM
THESE...BUT AS THEY ARE DEVELOPING ON RADAR HAVE ADDED PRE-FIRST
PERIOD ISOLATED STORMS TO THE GRIDS. HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOWED THESE
STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND 20Z...AND THEY DID...MAYBE I SHOULD
"LISTEN" TO THESE NEW HI-RES MODELS AFTER ALL...THOUGHT THE
DRY AIR ALOFT WITH THE RIDGING AND THE CAPPING SEEN ON THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ABOVE 700MB WOULD KEEP STORMS FROM
OCCURRING...BUT NOT TODAY AS I GUESS IT WAS OVERCOME WITH THE CAPES
PUSHING 3.5 TO 4.5K J/KG. PRECIP ENDS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE WITH CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MODELS STILL SHOWING THE WARMER TEMPS FOR TOMORROW WITH DEWPTS
AROUND THE LOWER 70S...PUSHING APPARENT TEMPS INTO THE 100-104
RANGE...OR JUST BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOTTEST DAY OF
THE YEAR POSSIBLY AND SHOULD BE DRY. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE AS WE
MOVE INTO MONDAY...EARLY DURING THE DAY THE DEEP TROUGH WILL START
TO PUSH SOUTH DIGGING INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH PRECIP POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...SOME CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALL DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND IF ATMOSPHERE GETS WORKED OVER SOME OR NOT ABLE TO
FULLY DESTABILIZE TO CREATE VERY STRONG STORMS...SOMETHING TO
WATCH. CAPES EXCEED 2 TO 3K J/KG AND MODEST SHEAR...NOTHING OVERLY
EXCITING...BUT POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE. DEEP TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND DRIVES THE COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
MS BY MID AFTN TUESDAY...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP EXISTS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA.
DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AND THE BOUNDARY SAGS. NOT THINKING MUCH CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
ON TUESDAY...BUT SOME MODELS DO SHOW DECENT CAPE STILL IN
PLACE...BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS ALMOST NIL WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN QUEBEC.
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
MODELS SHOW DRYING ON WEDNESDAY WITH DECENT NORTHERLY FLOW PUSHING
MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION...HIGHS NEAR 80 TO THE LOWER
80S...NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL AND LIKELY DRY CONDITIONS.
MODELS DIVERGE SOME AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...SOME STARTING TO
SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND CREATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE LOW POPS IN
AS LITTLE CONSISTENCY SEEN THE LAST TWO DAYS WITH HOW THIS WILL
PLAY OUT WITH THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS BREAKING
DOWN. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS THE REGION WET FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND THE EURO ALSO THIS AFTN...AND THAT MAYBE THE LIKELY
TREND TOWARDS A WET FORECAST FOR THOSE DAYS. -ABS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
FEW CHANGES ANTICIPATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT WHERE BRIEF MVFR VSBY FORMS AT MKL/TUP
EARLY THIS MORNING.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
316 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE HOT CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BE DUE
TO THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH AND EAST TEXAS
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEST BEEN SHOWN AT 200 MB WAS SLOWLY
WORKING ITS WAY WESTWARD INTO FAR SE TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
NAM HAS DONE A DECENT JOB SO FAR IN DEPICTING THE MOVEMENT OF THE
LOW. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR HAS DONE WELL IN SHOWING
THE LOCATION FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THE MODEL
HAS OVERDONE THE COVERAGE. BEST RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD STAY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW AS IT TREKS SLOWLY
WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUT THE BEST CHANCES OVER
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THE SEABREEZE WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS.
THE NAM12 PUSHES THE UPPER LOW TO OVER SE TX TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SHEAR APART TO BECOME PART OF A LARGER
WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE MODELS SLOWLY PUSH THE WEAKNESS EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS AREAS
STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL SET UP A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER STATE AND HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE AGREEING WITH
KEEPING THE FRONT GENERALLY OVER NE TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH. WOULD
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE STATE AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA.
TWEAKED THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ALSO FELT THAT
WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY THAT THE DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURE WILL BE MORE MODERATE THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED.
40
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE OVER COASTAL WATERS FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR A STRENGTHENING OF SURFACE WINDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS SHOULD FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS INLAND FROM THE COAST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS
OVER WEST TEXAS. 44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 104 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STILL LIKELY AFTER 21Z...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. LEFT VCTS IN THE IAH TAF AFTER
21Z AND CXO AFTER 22Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MIGRATE THAT FAR INLAND. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY REMAINS OVER THE GULF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SABINE RIVER. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO LIMIT
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THIS LOW. I MAY REMOVE THE VCTS FROM IAH
AND CXO TAFS AFTER 20Z IF THERE IS NOT BETTER DEVELOPMENT OVER
LAND.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT RURAL TERMINALS DURING PRE-DAWN HOURS ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. LEFT
MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS OUT OF MONDAY TAFS BECAUSE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
VERY SPARSE. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 98 75 95 74 / 10 10 20 30 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 97 76 94 75 / 10 20 20 40 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 90 80 90 81 / 10 20 20 30 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
609 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...SHOWER
CHANCES TUESDAY...AND VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS OF 3 PM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RAP 500 MB HEIGHTS
SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVING INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE STRONG COOLING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE DAYTIME
HEATING WAS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.
TEMPERATURES WERE HELD IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH A STEADY NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH. CERTAINLY THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOME
AREAS TODAY HAS THE LOOK AND FEEL MORE TYPICAL OF OCTOBER
14...NOT JULY 14.
QUICK PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY THIS EVENING AND
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW ANY LINGERING SHOWERS /
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SMALL CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH RESIDES CLOSER TO THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR LARGE STRATUS DECK
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...THAT IS PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GFS/NAM RH FIELDS SHOW THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. DESPITE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES OF -1 TO -2...AND THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MASS / +4 TO
+6C / OVERHEAD...SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER IS
LIKELY TO KEEP READINGS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. PLAN ON LOWS TO VARY A
FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 50.
FOR TUESDAY...LITTLE MODERATION IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP
THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER CONTINUING. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY MOVES INTO MICHIGAN...AND AT THE SURFACE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. COULD
NOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER ALONG AND EAST OF MS RIVER AS
SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED CUMULUS BY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS MORE FAVORABLE. USED BIAS-
CORRECTED GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS COOLER READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SOME OF THE MORE RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
VARY FROM LOW/MID 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS...TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.
INTRODUCED PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MS AND WISCONSIN RIVERS...GIVEN
ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR MASS...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 3 TO 3.5 KM AS
SEEN FROM NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND RECENT WET CONDITIONS.
WHILE MID JULY IS NOT THE FAVORED TIME FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG...FEEL
THAT THE MORE PRONE AREAS ALONG THE MS AND WISCONSIN RIVERS WILL
SEE SOME FOG.
BENIGN WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH MAIN WEATHER FEATURE BEING
THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. PLAN ON SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EACH DAY...LIGHT WINDS...AND A DRIER AIR MASS. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...AND LOWS IN THE
50S. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE 14.12Z GUIDANCE BEGIN BY
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE GFS SWINGS THIS FEATURE THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...MOISTURE TRANSPORT RETURN IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE AND THERE IS A LACK OF INSTABILITY AS WELL. CONSENSUS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY LOOK GOOD AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVER BY THE WEEKEND...THOUGH STILL
REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...OR IN THE LOW
80S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WHERE SHOWING LOTS
OF CLOUDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS WERE STILL SHOWING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. THE
14.18Z NAM AND 14.21Z HRRR BOTH SUGGEST THE MAJORITY OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE SO
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A VCSH FOR BOTH TAF SITES IN THE EARLY
EVENING. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE THE GUSTY WINDS SETTLE DOWN AS THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP. BASED ON SATELLITE...EXPECT THE BROKEN
CEILINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY VFR CEILINGS UP STREAM...CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING IS NOT HIGH. SHOULD SEE SOME DIURNAL LOWERING OF THE
CEILINGS BUT WILL STAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY INTO
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH TODAY. ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE
AREA OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN AND WILL NOT SHOW A VCSH
FOR EITHER TAF SITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
FOR LA CROSSE...
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 70. RECORD 68 IN 1962
FOR ROCHESTER...
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 67. RECORD 67 IN 1962
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE......AJ/RRS/ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1234 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS ON RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO WESTERN
CANADA...WHILE AN ANONYMOUSLY DEEP TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN
ONTARIO WAS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH. A PROMINENT DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE
DESCENDING TROUGH HELPED KICKED THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 03Z LAST EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW OF 20-35 KT FROM
925MB TO 700MB ALSO WAS BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...
NOTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO 1 INCH COMPARED TO AS HIGH AS 2
INCHES AT 00Z. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RELATIVELY HIGH...IN THE
LOW 60S...RESULTING MOSTLY FROM MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION. THAT TRAPPING HAS LED TO SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SLUG OF EVEN DRIER AIR WAS EVIDENT
OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 0.5
INCH...ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S. THIS DRIER
AIR WAS LOCATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST WI
INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. SOME DYING SHOWERS WERE OVER NORTHWEST WI WITH
THIS FRONT...TIED MOSTLY WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT IS MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. TEMPERATURE
WISE...850MB TEMPS WERE GENERALLY 13-16C FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO
WISCONSIN AT 00Z. HOWEVER...5C READINGS WERE SEEN LURKING OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA WITHIN THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DROPPING THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL MN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO A DECENT AMOUNT OF CUMULUS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE
DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/CANADIAN SUGGEST A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...NEW
13.00Z ECMWF AS WELL AS THE 13.05Z HRRR AND 3 OF THE 4 HOPWRF
MEMBERS RUN BY THE MPX OFFICE SUGGEST A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE FRONT. DEVELOPMENT TIME OCCURS AROUND 14Z / 9 AM AND SINKS
TO THE SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA BY 19Z / 2 PM. INCLUDED A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THIS SHOWER POTENTIAL. DID NOT PUT
ANY THUNDER WITH IT AS THE CAPE IS ONLY PROGGED AT 100-200 J/KG AND
ALL OF THE CAPE IS BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL. AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
THE LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER ADVECTS IN BEHIND IT...EXPECT THE
CUMULUS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING THROUGH
THE 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME A BIT BREEZY TOO IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE GIVEN A FAVORABLE DEEPER MIXING ENVIRONMENT.
ATTENTION TONIGHT TURNS TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE DEEP TROUGH
LOCATED IN NORTHEAST MANITOBA. MODELS DROPS THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF MN BY 12Z...WITH AN UPPER LOW ALSO INDICATED AT
500MB. DPVA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE MOIST AND MUCH
COOLER AIR WITHIN THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SHOWERS INTO
NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z MONDAY. BELIEVE THESE SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM
TAYLOR COUNTY BEFORE 12Z. SOME CLOUD INCREASE IS LIKELY NORTH OF I-
90 AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH. A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD
COME INTO AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z AS WELL. ADVECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 50S...WITH
EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL WI.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE HERE IN THE LONG TERM IS WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW IN NORTHERN MN AT 12Z MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN PERSISTENT AS A
SLOWER...MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...TAKING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI MONDAY EVENING AND ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 13.00Z CANADIAN/NAM/GFS ALL ARE IN STEP WITH
EACH OTHER SHOWING A TRACK ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY...AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE
SIGNIFICANT AS IT IMPACTS THE LOCATION OF DPVA AND DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWER POTENTIAL...ALONG WITH HOW COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 13.00Z ECMWF HAS
TRENDED JUST SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN/NAM/GFS. TO HANDLE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...HAVE DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH WOULD BE IN-LINE WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS IDEA.
FOR MONDAY...WE SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT
APPROACH. THE MOST NUMEROUS COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED NORTH OF HIGHWAY
29 CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOSTLY DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TUESDAYS RAIN
CHANCES ARE A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE NOW AFTER SEEING THE 13.00Z
ECMWF. THE FLOW IS STILL CYCLONIC INTO THE REGION...BUT DRY AIR IS
ADVECTING IN AT THE SAME TIME. THE CANADIAN/GFS/NAM ARE ALL
DRY...AND NOW THE ECMWF ONLY HAS SOME LIGHT QPF BETWEEN 12-18Z
TUESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT. HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOWER A BIT AND DRIED OUT LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO 4-6C IN THE
MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. THE LONE EXCEPTION
TO THAT IS IN FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHERE THE COLDER AIR ENTERS LAST AND
HAS MORE SUN POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING. WITH LESS SHOWER POTENTIAL ON
TUESDAY...HAVE RAISED HIGHS SLIGHTLY BUT THEY ARE STILL A FAR CRY
FROM NORMAL.
BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE RULE AFTER TUESDAY. UPPER
TROUGHING DOMINATES MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS FAVORS
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRYING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SPLATTER LIGHT QPF AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS AS A RESULT OF TOO MUCH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...500MB HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT. IN FACT...WE COULD EVEN BE
UNDER UPPER RIDGING BY SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN HEADING INTO SATURDAY FAVORS A
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A NICE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS CLOSER TO NORMAL. MUCH OF THE MORE HUMID AIR LOOKS TO BE
STUCK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. THANKS TO THE COLD/DRY AIR FROM
EARLIER THIS WEEK DROPPING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KRST/KLSE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING ITS WAKE. EXPECTING MOST OF
THIS...ALONG WITH THE 20KT GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...TO BE
DIURNAL AND SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNSET. THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND
WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS IS
EXPECTED. BASES LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT...AS OBSERVED TODAY
UPSTREAM. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES...BUT
MORE SO AFTER 18Z AND TO THE NORTHEAST...SO HAVE KEPT CURRENT TAF
PERIOD DRY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.
FOR LA CROSSE...
MONDAY....FORECAST HIGH 68. RECORD 65 IN 1994
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 70. RECORD 68 IN 1962
FOR ROCHESTER...
MONDAY....FORECAST HIGH 64. RECORD 64 IN 1952
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 67. RECORD 67 IN 1962
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....ZT
CLIMATE......AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
628 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS ON RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO WESTERN
CANADA...WHILE AN ANONYMOUSLY DEEP TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN
ONTARIO WAS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH. A PROMINENT DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE
DESCENDING TROUGH HELPED KICKED THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 03Z LAST EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW OF 20-35 KT FROM
925MB TO 700MB ALSO WAS BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...
NOTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO 1 INCH COMPARED TO AS HIGH AS 2
INCHES AT 00Z. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RELATIVELY HIGH...IN THE
LOW 60S...RESULTING MOSTLY FROM MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION. THAT TRAPPING HAS LED TO SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SLUG OF EVEN DRIER AIR WAS EVIDENT
OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 0.5
INCH...ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S. THIS DRIER
AIR WAS LOCATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST WI
INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. SOME DYING SHOWERS WERE OVER NORTHWEST WI WITH
THIS FRONT...TIED MOSTLY WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT IS MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. TEMPERATURE
WISE...850MB TEMPS WERE GENERALLY 13-16C FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO
WISCONSIN AT 00Z. HOWEVER...5C READINGS WERE SEEN LURKING OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA WITHIN THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DROPPING THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL MN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO A DECENT AMOUNT OF CUMULUS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE
DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/CANADIAN SUGGEST A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...NEW
13.00Z ECMWF AS WELL AS THE 13.05Z HRRR AND 3 OF THE 4 HOPWRF
MEMBERS RUN BY THE MPX OFFICE SUGGEST A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE FRONT. DEVELOPMENT TIME OCCURS AROUND 14Z / 9 AM AND SINKS
TO THE SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA BY 19Z / 2 PM. INCLUDED A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THIS SHOWER POTENTIAL. DID NOT PUT
ANY THUNDER WITH IT AS THE CAPE IS ONLY PROGGED AT 100-200 J/KG AND
ALL OF THE CAPE IS BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL. AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
THE LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER ADVECTS IN BEHIND IT...EXPECT THE
CUMULUS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING THROUGH
THE 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME A BIT BREEZY TOO IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE GIVEN A FAVORABLE DEEPER MIXING ENVIRONMENT.
ATTENTION TONIGHT TURNS TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE DEEP TROUGH
LOCATED IN NORTHEAST MANITOBA. MODELS DROPS THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF MN BY 12Z...WITH AN UPPER LOW ALSO INDICATED AT
500MB. DPVA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE MOIST AND MUCH
COOLER AIR WITHIN THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SHOWERS INTO
NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z MONDAY. BELIEVE THESE SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM
TAYLOR COUNTY BEFORE 12Z. SOME CLOUD INCREASE IS LIKELY NORTH OF I-
90 AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH. A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD
COME INTO AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z AS WELL. ADVECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 50S...WITH
EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL WI.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE HERE IN THE LONG TERM IS WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW IN NORTHERN MN AT 12Z MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN PERSISTENT AS A
SLOWER...MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...TAKING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI MONDAY EVENING AND ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 13.00Z CANADIAN/NAM/GFS ALL ARE IN STEP WITH
EACH OTHER SHOWING A TRACK ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY...AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE
SIGNIFICANT AS IT IMPACTS THE LOCATION OF DPVA AND DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWER POTENTIAL...ALONG WITH HOW COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 13.00Z ECMWF HAS
TRENDED JUST SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN/NAM/GFS. TO HANDLE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...HAVE DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH WOULD BE IN-LINE WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS IDEA.
FOR MONDAY...WE SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT
APPROACH. THE MOST NUMEROUS COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED NORTH OF HIGHWAY
29 CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOSTLY DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TUESDAYS RAIN
CHANCES ARE A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE NOW AFTER SEEING THE 13.00Z
ECMWF. THE FLOW IS STILL CYCLONIC INTO THE REGION...BUT DRY AIR IS
ADVECTING IN AT THE SAME TIME. THE CANADIAN/GFS/NAM ARE ALL
DRY...AND NOW THE ECMWF ONLY HAS SOME LIGHT QPF BETWEEN 12-18Z
TUESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT. HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOWER A BIT AND DRIED OUT LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO 4-6C IN THE
MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. THE LONE EXCEPTION
TO THAT IS IN FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHERE THE COLDER AIR ENTERS LAST AND
HAS MORE SUN POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING. WITH LESS SHOWER POTENTIAL ON
TUESDAY...HAVE RAISED HIGHS SLIGHTLY BUT THEY ARE STILL A FAR CRY
FROM NORMAL.
BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE RULE AFTER TUESDAY. UPPER
TROUGHING DOMINATES MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS FAVORS
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRYING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SPLATTER LIGHT QPF AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS AS A RESULT OF TOO MUCH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...500MB HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT. IN FACT...WE COULD EVEN BE
UNDER UPPER RIDGING BY SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN HEADING INTO SATURDAY FAVORS A
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A NICE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS CLOSER TO NORMAL. MUCH OF THE MORE HUMID AIR LOOKS TO BE
STUCK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. THANKS TO THE COLD/DRY AIR FROM
EARLIER THIS WEEK DROPPING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
GENERALLY GOOD VFR EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS IS
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A
BAND OF 2000-3500 FT CLOUDS TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE A SHORT PERIOD OF BKN020-BKN030 CLOUDS AT THE
TAF SITES AS IT PASSES. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE FRONT BY LATER THIS MORNING. FRONT MAY STILL BE IN THE KLSE
AREA WHEN THIS OCCURS AND THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VCSH AT
KLSE AROUND 15-16Z. BETTER SIGNAL IS THAT IF ANY -SHRA DO DEVELOP
NEAR THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IT WILL BE
SOUTH OF KLSE...AND LEFT VCSH MENTION OUT OF THE TAF. DEEPER MIXING
TODAY AND TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KT
G18-23KT LATE THIS MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-
10KT AND DRIER BOUNDARY LATER AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MON MORNING BR IN THE FCST AREA TO A MINIMUM.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.
FOR LA CROSSE...
MONDAY....FORECAST HIGH 68. RECORD 65 IN 1994
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 70. RECORD 68 IN 1962
FOR ROCHESTER...
MONDAY....FORECAST HIGH 64. RECORD 64 IN 1952
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 67. RECORD 67 IN 1962
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
CLIMATE......AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
259 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS ON RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO WESTERN
CANADA...WHILE AN ANONYMOUSLY DEEP TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN
ONTARIO WAS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH. A PROMINENT DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE
DESCENDING TROUGH HELPED KICKED THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 03Z LAST EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW OF 20-35 KT FROM
925MB TO 700MB ALSO WAS BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...
NOTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO 1 INCH COMPARED TO AS HIGH AS 2
INCHES AT 00Z. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RELATIVELY HIGH...IN THE
LOW 60S...RESULTING MOSTLY FROM MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION. THAT TRAPPING HAS LED TO SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SLUG OF EVEN DRIER AIR WAS EVIDENT
OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 0.5
INCH...ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S. THIS DRIER
AIR WAS LOCATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST WI
INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. SOME DYING SHOWERS WERE OVER NORTHWEST WI WITH
THIS FRONT...TIED MOSTLY WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT IS MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. TEMPERATURE
WISE...850MB TEMPS WERE GENERALLY 13-16C FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO
WISCONSIN AT 00Z. HOWEVER...5C READINGS WERE SEEN LURKING OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA WITHIN THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DROPPING THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL MN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO A DECENT AMOUNT OF CUMULUS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE
DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/CANADIAN SUGGEST A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...NEW
13.00Z ECMWF AS WELL AS THE 13.05Z HRRR AND 3 OF THE 4 HOPWRF
MEMBERS RUN BY THE MPX OFFICE SUGGEST A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE FRONT. DEVELOPMENT TIME OCCURS AROUND 14Z / 9 AM AND SINKS
TO THE SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA BY 19Z / 2 PM. INCLUDED A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THIS SHOWER POTENTIAL. DID NOT PUT
ANY THUNDER WITH IT AS THE CAPE IS ONLY PROGGED AT 100-200 J/KG AND
ALL OF THE CAPE IS BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL. AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
THE LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER ADVECTS IN BEHIND IT...EXPECT THE
CUMULUS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING THROUGH
THE 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME A BIT BREEZY TOO IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE GIVEN A FAVORABLE DEEPER MIXING ENVIRONMENT.
ATTENTION TONIGHT TURNS TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE DEEP TROUGH
LOCATED IN NORTHEAST MANITOBA. MODELS DROPS THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF MN BY 12Z...WITH AN UPPER LOW ALSO INDICATED AT
500MB. DPVA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE MOIST AND MUCH
COOLER AIR WITHIN THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SHOWERS INTO
NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z MONDAY. BELIEVE THESE SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM
TAYLOR COUNTY BEFORE 12Z. SOME CLOUD INCREASE IS LIKELY NORTH OF I-
90 AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH. A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD
COME INTO AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z AS WELL. ADVECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 50S...WITH
EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL WI.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE HERE IN THE LONG TERM IS WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW IN NORTHERN MN AT 12Z MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN PERSISTENT AS A
SLOWER...MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...TAKING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI MONDAY EVENING AND ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 13.00Z CANADIAN/NAM/GFS ALL ARE IN STEP WITH
EACH OTHER SHOWING A TRACK ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY...AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE
SIGNIFICANT AS IT IMPACTS THE LOCATION OF DPVA AND DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWER POTENTIAL...ALONG WITH HOW COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 13.00Z ECMWF HAS
TRENDED JUST SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN/NAM/GFS. TO HANDLE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...HAVE DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH WOULD BE IN-LINE WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS IDEA.
FOR MONDAY...WE SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT
APPROACH. THE MOST NUMEROUS COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED NORTH OF HIGHWAY
29 CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOSTLY DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TUESDAYS RAIN
CHANCES ARE A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE NOW AFTER SEEING THE 13.00Z
ECMWF. THE FLOW IS STILL CYCLONIC INTO THE REGION...BUT DRY AIR IS
ADVECTING IN AT THE SAME TIME. THE CANADIAN/GFS/NAM ARE ALL
DRY...AND NOW THE ECMWF ONLY HAS SOME LIGHT QPF BETWEEN 12-18Z
TUESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT. HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOWER A BIT AND DRIED OUT LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO 4-6C IN THE
MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. THE LONE EXCEPTION
TO THAT IS IN FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHERE THE COLDER AIR ENTERS LAST AND
HAS MORE SUN POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING. WITH LESS SHOWER POTENTIAL ON
TUESDAY...HAVE RAISED HIGHS SLIGHTLY BUT THEY ARE STILL A FAR CRY
FROM NORMAL.
BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE RULE AFTER TUESDAY. UPPER
TROUGHING DOMINATES MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS FAVORS
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRYING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SPLATTER LIGHT QPF AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS AS A RESULT OF TOO MUCH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...500MB HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT. IN FACT...WE COULD EVEN BE
UNDER UPPER RIDGING BY SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN HEADING INTO SATURDAY FAVORS A
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A NICE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS CLOSER TO NORMAL. MUCH OF THE MORE HUMID AIR LOOKS TO BE
STUCK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. THANKS TO THE COLD/DRY AIR FROM
EARLIER THIS WEEK DROPPING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION INDICATE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
OUT AND WITH THE MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN...SOME FOG IS STARTING TO
FORM. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE HAS DECOUPLED AND THE STRONGER WINDS
SHOWN IN THE VWP WINDS FROM SURROUNDING RADARS AND IN THE 13.00Z
NAM AND 13.01Z RAP SOUNDINGS MAY NOT INHIBIT THE FOG. HAVE PUT
MORE FOG INTO BOTH TAF SITES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BOTH SITES
GOING DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH SWINGING
THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE SPEEDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. ALSO EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
BAND OF CLOUDS THAT COULD BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS.
ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT...THE MIXING BECOMES
DEEP ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT BOTH AIRPORTS. THE
WINDS WILL THEN DIE DOWN EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION DEVELOPS AND CUTS OFF THE MIXING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.
FOR LA CROSSE...
MONDAY....FORECAST HIGH 68. RECORD 65 IN 1994
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 70. RECORD 68 IN 1962
FOR ROCHESTER...
MONDAY....FORECAST HIGH 64. RECORD 64 IN 1952
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 67. RECORD 67 IN 1962
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THESE AREAS. THE
MAIN CONCERN IS SHIFTING MORE TOWARD A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODELS
CONTINUE TO FIRE STORMS OVER THESE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN THEY PUSH THIS ACTIVITY TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS AND
MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. ALSO...IF SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THERE COULD EVEN BE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE
AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER...0-1 KM SHEAR IS VERY WEAK AND WE
WOULD HAVE TO SEE THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT MAKE IT A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH TO HAVE TORNADO POTENTIAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL...WITH PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.9 AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF
3.5 TO 4.0 KM ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THERE IS A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AREA TO THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THEN
STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST. THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHEAST VERY
SLOWLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND WE WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. IF IT STALLS THERE
COULD ENOUGH LOCALIZED VORTICITY TO SEE A NON SUPERCELL TORNADO OR
TWO IF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION OCCURS. ALSO...STORMS NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SLOW MOVING AND WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
TAPER OFF AND END THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE
REGION.MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING THEN
WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASING CLOUD TREND LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW BUT WILL
MOSTLY GENERATE SOME CUMULUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE COULD BUILD JUST ENOUGH CAPE FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
A DEEP TROUGH DIVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
BRINING UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 4 C MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL RECORD COOL HIGH
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. WITH THE SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER
CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO POSSIBLY AROUND 60 OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 60S. CANNOT RULE OUT
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE HIGHS COULD APPROACH 70. MUCH OF THE
AREAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEEING RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
FOR RECORD LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
TROUGH PULLS EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND WE COULD SEE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION INDICATE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
OUT AND WITH THE MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN...SOME FOG IS STARTING TO
FORM. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE HAS DECOUPLED AND THE STRONGER WINDS
SHOWN IN THE VWP WINDS FROM SURROUNDING RADARS AND IN THE 13.00Z
NAM AND 13.01Z RAP SOUNDINGS MAY NOT INHIBIT THE FOG. HAVE PUT
MORE FOG INTO BOTH TAF SITES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BOTH SITES
GOING DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH SWINGING
THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE SPEEDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. ALSO EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
BAND OF CLOUDS THAT COULD BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS.
ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT...THE MIXING BECOMES
DEEP ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT BOTH AIRPORTS. THE
WINDS WILL THEN DIE DOWN EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION DEVELOPS AND CUTS OFF THE MIXING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO PONDING OF
WATER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN
AREAS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.
FOR LA CROSSE...
MONDAY....FORECAST HIGH 69. RECORD 65 IN 1994
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 68. RECORD 68 IN 1962
FOR ROCHESTER...
MONDAY....FORECAST HIGH 64. RECORD 64 IN 1952
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 67. RECORD 67 IN 1962
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP
CLIMATE...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
852 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG TSTMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE
EARLIER THIS EVE WITHIN A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THAT ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVED SOUTHEAST
INTO COLORADO AS EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TSTM IN FAR SOUTHERN LARAMIE COUNTY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVE
HOURS...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE DRY SIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CARBON AND
ALBANY COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH THE
MAIN HAZARD. BUMPED UP POPS OVER THAT AREA FOR ONGOING PCPN
TRENDS. QUITE A BIT OF ANVIL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT
NOW THAT MAY IMPACT LOW TEMPS. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CONSENSUS
MOS FOR TONIGHT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO POPS IN THE WESTERN NE
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND RUC SHOW CONSIDERABLE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH LLVL WARM ADVECTION ALONG A BFF TO SNY LINE WITH GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WHILE NO QPF SHOWS IN THE MODELS...THE LATEST
HRRR DOES HINT AT SOME ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING SOME ISOLATED POPS LATER ON FOR POSSIBLE
ELEVATED CONVECTION EAST OF THE FRONT. REMAINDER OF THE FCST IS ON
TRACK. STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY TOMORROW AM...WITH TSTM CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE AFTN AND EVE. STAY TUNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
PRETTY QUIET AFTN ACROSS THE CWA WITH MUCH OF THE STORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO. THE AIRMASS IS MORE STABLE TODAY WITH CAPE VALUES
GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG...THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER IN SOUTHWEST LARAMIE COUNTY WHERE CAPES ARE UP TO 1000
J/KG. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND ANY STORMS THAN INITIATE ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS
NORTHERN IDAHO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO WY ON
TUES WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER CARBON COUNTY IN THE AFTN. SFC WINDS
GO SOUTHEASTERLY TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE MORNING
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION. CAPE VALUES ARE
UP TO 1250-1500 BY THE AFTN FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD TO
ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER. BULK SHEAR IS EXCELLENT (50-55 KTS) DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THUS IT IS CONTINUING
TO LOOK LIKE AN ACTIVE SVR DAY IN SOUTHEAST WY AND LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDS. STORMS THAT INITIATE ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE WILL TEND TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OR EVEN TO THE
SOUTH IN THE CASE OF A RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELL. HAVE HIGH POPS (40-50
PERCENT) EXTENDING THROUGH MOST OF TUES NIGHT AS THE AREA WILL
STILL BE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
SHORTWAVE IS STILL OVERHEAD ON WED...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LESS THAN TUES. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON WED
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
COOLED TEMPS ON WED A FEW DEGREES SUCH THAT MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOT
GETTING MUCH ABOVE 70 DEGREES. CAPE VALUES DO NOT REALLY GET ABOVE
750...SO WHILE THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING...THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE REDUCED COMPARED TO
TUES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TIMEFRAME IS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB THIS WEEK...AND WHEN THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT:
THE MODELS ARE STARTING SHOW A FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS SHOWING A VERY SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ON THURSDAY
WITH SOME FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS
NOT AS BULLISH ON THE MOISTURE EXCEPT OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE MAIN
PROBLEM IS LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO LACK OF RETURN
FLOW FROM THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S AND 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. WE FOLLOWED
CLOSEST TO THE ENSEMBLE HIGHS WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE
700MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES WITH DEVIATIONS OF 2 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
FRIDAY-MONDAY:
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS ARE ALL SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVIDENCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS TROF WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TIMING OF THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES
WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL INDUCE GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY WILL BE
DECENT WITH DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE WEST TO EAST. BEYOND
THIS TIMEFRAME...IT APPEARS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
WARMUP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH 700MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 447 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS. COULD
SEE A LITTLE FOG HERE AT KCYS WITH UPSLOPING EASTERLY WINDS. THERE
COULD BE SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT KBFF AND KSNY
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS HAPPENING. CONVECTION
TO BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THAT
WILL IMPACT FLIGHTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CONFIDENCE HIGH ON
THIS HAPPENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1137 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES AND GRIDS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ACROSS THE REGION. BULK OF ACTIVITYWILL
BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...NEAREST THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
THE HRRR CONTINUING TO DRIVE STORMS THROUGH 5 AM. SOUTHERN CELLS
GENERATING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH A
GENERAL SOUTHERLY MOTION. HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE NEVADA AND UTAH BORDER
DOMINATES THE BIG PICTURE TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING REMAINS STRONG
WITH HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
MOISTURE IS MORE READILY AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND
EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS REGION. WATER VAPOR SHOWS DRIER
AIR OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS. CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH CORE
ALLOWS STORMS TO DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FOR NRN LOCATIONS...TOWARD
THE SOUTH FOR SOUTHWEST COLORADO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL DRIFT OVER THE ADJACENT LOWER RIVER
VALLEYS FROM CORTEZ TO PAGOSA SPRINGS. WITH SURFACE HEATING BEING
THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE TRIGGER...MOST STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE THAT STORMS MAY CONGREGATE BETWEEN
BLANDING/BLUFF AND CORTEZ/MESA VERDE AROUND SUNSET AS STORM
OUTFLOWS MOVE TOWARD THIS REGION.
A SHORT WAVE OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ON TUESDAY...SUPPRESSING THE HIGH CORE A BIT. THE STRONGEST IMPACT
STAYS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS AREAL STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER AS AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE INCREASES FOR NE
UTAH AND NW COLORADO. SPEED SHEAR INCREASES A NOTCH AS WELL FOR
NW COLORADO AS WELL AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...THIS MAY
RESULT IN LONGER LASTING PULSE STORMS WHICH INCREASES THE CHANCE
FOR STORMS HITTING VALLEY TOWNS. THE TREND WILL BE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS FOR WRN COLORADO VALLEYS...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
OVER ELEVATED SITES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST...MOSTLY STAYING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER IT WILL REACH INTO OUR NORTHEAST CORNER EARLY WED...AND
ALONG OUR EASTERN EDGE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO MODEL TIMING OF THE
UPPER WAVE STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH THE TIMING TRENDING A LITTLE
SLOWER. THE ECMWF STILL THE SLOWEST MODEL...WITH TROUGH PASSAGE
WAITING UNTIL LATE WED OR EVEN WED NIGHT. A TRAILING PIECE OF THE
UPPER JET WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME SUPPORT THROUGH DAY
AS IT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ROUGHLY ACROSS
THE CENTER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE EXPECT WED TO REMAIN ON
THE MORE ACTIVE SIDE WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY TRAVELING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE AS COMPARED RECENT STORMS. BUT A RELATIVELY FAST
STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT HEAVY RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.
A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THU. ANOTHER WAVE WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN U.S./CANADA BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE UPPER RIDGE CONFINED TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF IS STRONGEST WITH THIS WAVE...AND WEAKER WITH
THE RIDGE BUILDING THAT FOLLOWS. THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO
DURING THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY...THE GFS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A VERY
STRONG RIDGE...597DM AT 500MB...CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS. WHILE
THE EC IS A LITTLE WEAKER...IT LOOKS LIKE VERY HOT CONDITIONS MAY
BE IN STORE. ALSO A DOWNTURN IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...BUT RECYCLED MOISTURE MAY SUPPLY A FEW TERRAIN BASED
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z/TUES. THERE WILL BE INCREASED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THESE
STORMS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH. TAF SITES FACE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH 03Z/WED. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
139 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.AVIATION...
TYPICAL DAY IN SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH A LAND BREEZE IN THE EARLY
MORNING, THE SWITCHING OVER TO A SEA BREEZE IN THE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. WITH
THE GENERAL WIND FLOW OUT OF THE WEST, IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
STORMS WILL DEVELOP FIRST AS SHOWERS, THEN GROW INTO THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR, THEN TRANSITION TO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
THUS, HAVE LEFT THE VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014/
UPDATE...CONVECTION IS ALMOST ENTIRELY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGER SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT EVERYWHERE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT, ASSIGNED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE COASTS AND ADJACENT WATERS. HRRR HAS
BEEN SHOWING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC
WATERS LATE TONIGHT...AND EVEN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH
MOVEMENT ONSHORE THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST TOWARDS DAWN. GIVEN
VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS...THIS DOES LOOK POSSIBLE. MOST
AREAS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. PLEASE SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER FORECAST DETAILS. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014/
SHORT TERM...
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND SUBTLE SSE TO S SURFACE FLOW. SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AT THIS HOUR ARE MOVING WEST...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEEPER INTO THE INTERIOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE STORMS FORM
FURTHER NORTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY JUST WEST OF I-595/I-95 IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MANY OF THESE STORMS WHICH HAVE LINED UP JUST
WEST OF THE MAJOR INTERSTATES COULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.
STORMS SHOULD ALSO PICK UP ALONG THE WEST COAST/NAPLES AND NORTH
AND EAST OF THIS REGION. THE WEAK FLOW THIS AFTERNOON IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY LEAD TO URBAN
HIGH WATER IN SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS.
A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA WILL BE THE
MAIN FEATURE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. IN RESPONSE WINDS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THE BEST
REGION FOR NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO SWING INTO THAT
DIRECTION AND MIGHT BE WISE TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE POPS IN THOSE
REGIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS LONG AS THE BOUNDARY DOESN`T SLOW.
EVOLUTION OF STORMS ON TUESDAY MAY FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN TO
TODAY...ALTHOUGH IF THE SURFACE FLOW IS A LITTLE STRONGER...MAY MITIGATE
THE VARIABLE EFFECTS THAT MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE ON
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GENERAL
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND MONDAY AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF
LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO
THE SW GRADUALLY INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH ENTERS
FLORIDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 76 90 76 / 50 30 60 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 77 91 78 / 40 30 60 20
MIAMI 89 77 90 77 / 50 30 50 20
NAPLES 89 78 89 78 / 40 20 40 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
337 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT
PLUS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H25 JET
SHOULD HELP SUPPORT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYS THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AROUND 800 PM. FORECASTED THE HIGHEST POP TOWARD THAT
TIME. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDINESS. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AND EXPECT MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. THE NAM SHOWS SURFACE-BASED LI/S OF -4
TO -6 WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SHEAR ALSO APPEARS HIGHER IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND BECAUSE OF
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING. USED THE
HOTTER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY. THE WARMER GUIDANCE USUALLY
VERIFIES BETTER JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONTS. ALSO...CLOUDINESS
AND MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SUPPORTED THE WARMER
GUIDANCE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHIFTING DEEPER MOISTURE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD BE LOW
BECAUSE OF JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE. ALL OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS
SUPPORT VERY LOW POPS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE H5 TROUGHING BECOMING PRONOUNCED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS INDICATE THE REMNANTS
OF THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE APPEARS TO BEGIN FRIDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DURING
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS
OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE CSRA EARLY THIS MORNING.
AT THIS TIME CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES. GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. FOG THREAT LOW DUE TO 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT LATEST HRRR AND LAMP SUPPORT VFR.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...20Z-24Z BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND MVFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY LINGER UNTIL AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
315 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT
PLUS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H25 JET
SHOULD HELP SUPPORT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYS THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AROUND 800 PM. FORECASTED THE HIGHEST POP TOWARD THAT
TIME. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDINESS. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AND EXPECT MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. THE NAM SHOWS SURFACE-BASED LI/S OF -4
TO -6 WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SHEAR ALSO APPEARS HIGHER IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND BECAUSE OF
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. CLOUDINESS
AND MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SUPPORTED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHIFTING DEEPER MOISTURE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD BE LOW
BECAUSE OF JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE. ALL OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS
SUPPORT VERY LOW POPS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE H5 TROUGHING BECOMING PRONOUNCED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS INDICATE THE REMNANTS
OF THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE APPEARS TO BEGIN FRIDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DURING
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS
OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE CSRA EARLY THIS MORNING.
AT THIS TIME CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES. GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. FOG THREAT LOW DUE TO 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT LATEST HRRR AND LAMP SUPPORT VFR.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...20Z-24Z BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND MVFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY LINGER UNTIL AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
129 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
STALL TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PLUS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND DIURNAL COOLING SUPPORT SCATTERED
COVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN US ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE AND UPPER
LOWS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPSTATE DURING THE MORNING AND THE MIDLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS AGREE ON A RAPID MOISTENING DURING
THE MIDDAY HOURS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY AND PRODUCE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 90S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE GFS
CONTINUING TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEEKEND. REMAINS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN FL ON THURSDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GULF STATES. AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL
REMAINS WILL BEGIN SLIDING NORTHWARD. THIS WILL PUSH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
STALLING ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE CSRA EARLY THIS MORNING.
AT THIS TIME CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES. GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. FOG THREAT LOW DUE TO 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT LATEST HRRR AND LAMP SUPPORT VFR.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...20Z-24Z BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND MVFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY LINGER UNTIL AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1203 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
STALL TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PLUS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND DIURNAL COOLING SUPPORT SCATTERED
COVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN US ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE AND UPPER
LOWS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPSTATE DURING THE MORNING AND THE MIDLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS AGREE ON A RAPID MOISTENING DURING
THE MIDDAY HOURS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY AND PRODUCE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 90S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE GFS
CONTINUING TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEEKEND. REMAINS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN FL ON THURSDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GULF STATES. AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL
REMAINS WILL BEGIN SLIDING NORTHWARD. THIS WILL PUSH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
STALLING ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE CSRA AND
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH/VCTS TO
FOR OGB/AGS/DNL UNTIL 06Z. GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM. FOG THREAT LOW DUE TO 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT LATEST HRRR AND
LAMP SUPPORT VFR. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AFTER 18Z
TUESDAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...20Z-24Z BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND MVFR OR LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT IN THE
AFTERNOON TO 20 KTS.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY AND OR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
400 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
THE ONLY THING TO REAL FORECAST ITEM TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING IS THE
REMARKABLY DEEP/UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW DIGGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.
WATER VAPOR AND EVENING UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND COLD (FOR JULY) UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION. SURFACE LOW AND INITIAL COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED EAST/SOUTH OF
THE CWA BUT SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME INSOLATION THIS MORNING
SHOULD RESULT IN RAPIDLY STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE AND LIKELY
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING
AND LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA. GIVEN THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN THE REGION...AND WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 8000FT AGL
CAN`T EVEN RULE OUT A TOUCH OF GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IF ANY MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS FORM. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE SECONDARY FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SUBSEQUENTLY IS
ONE OF THE ONLY MODELS SHOWING A LAKE BREEZE MOVING JUST INLAND
INTO NE IL...WHICH COULD CERTAINLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID- UPPER 60S TODAY
DESPITE SOME MIXED SUNSHINE...PROBABLY FALLING SHY OF RECORD COLD
HIGH TEMPS BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR NON-URBANIZED AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 40S TONIGHT
FOR LOWS...WITH SOME TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING WELL
INTO THE 40S.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GO THROUGH A DEAMPLIFICATION AND
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.CLIMATE...
347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 52 IN 1967 49 IN 1945
ROCKFORD 45 IN 1930 46 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 IN 1903 62 IN 1912
ROCKFORD 64 IN 1962 68 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
* SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE NORTHEAST WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR MDW.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 09Z...
PATCHY MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ACROSS WI EARLY
THIS MORNING...THOUGH APPEAR TO BE A FEW HOURS OFF FROM DEVELOPING
INTO NORTHERN IL TERMINALS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A PERIOD OF MVFR 1500-ISH FT CIGS ROUGHLY 12-15Z PERIOD
BEFORE LIFTING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO VFR BY MIDDAY. ALSO...RAP REMAINS
AN ODD MODEL OUT IN MAINTAINING THE IDEA OF A WEAKENING GRADIENT
NEAR THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A LAKE BREEZE SHIFTING WINDS
NORTHEAST AT MDW AND GYY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE MODEL
CONSENSUS BEFORE BRINGING LAKE BREEZE THROUGH IN TAF...THOUGH HAVE
VEERED WINDS MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RATZER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 06Z...
COLD CORE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD LATER TODAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SLOWLY IN FROM THE WEST...A REASONABLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. SOME INDICATIONS OF A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER/ALONG SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON THAT COULD SUPPORT A NORTHEAST SHIFT TO WINDS NEAR THE
LAKE...WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST LARGE SCALE GRADIENT SUGGESTING
MDW/GYY THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE REACHED BY
POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP WITH MOISTENING IN COOL
ADVECTION...WHICH SHOULD LIFT BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALSO PRODUCE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHRA AT/NEAR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE AFFECTING ORD/MDW.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. LAKE BREEZES PSBL WED/THUR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
224 AM CDT
MAIN MARINE FOCUS IS WITH GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE
ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS. WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE
LIKELY AS UNSEASONABLY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFICIENT MIXING OF MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE-INDUCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE.
THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE LAKES ALLOWING MODEST SOUTH FLOW TO RETURN.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
334 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
THE ONLY THING TO REAL FORECAST ITEM TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING IS THE
REMARKABLY DEEP/UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW DIGGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.
WATER VAPOR AND EVENING UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND COLD (FOR JULY) UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION. SURFACE LOW AND INITIAL COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED EAST/SOUTH OF
THE CWA BUT SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME INSOLATION THIS MORNING
SHOULD RESULT IN RAPIDLY STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE AND LIKELY
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING
AND LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA. GIVEN THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN THE REGION...AND WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 8000FT AGL
CAN`T EVEN RULE OUT A TOUCH OF GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IF ANY MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS FORM. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE SECONDARY FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SUBSEQUENTLY IS
ONE OF THE ONLY MODELS SHOWING A LAKE BREEZE MOVING JUST INLAND
INTO NE IL...WHICH COULD CERTAINLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID- UPPER 60S TODAY
DESPITE SOME MIXED SUNSHINE...PROBABLY FALLING SHY OF RECORD COLD
HIGH TEMPS BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR NON-URBANIZED AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 40S TONIGHT
FOR LOWS...WITH SOME TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING WELL
INTO THE 40S.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GO THROUGH A DEAMPLIFICATION AND
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.CLIMATE...
347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 52 IN 1967 49 IN 1945
ROCKFORD 45 IN 1930 46 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 IN 1903 62 IN 1912
ROCKFORD 64 IN 1962 68 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
* SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE NORTHEAST WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR MDW.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
COLD CORE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD LATER TODAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SLOWLY IN FROM THE WEST...A REASONABLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. SOME INDICATIONS OF A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER/ALONG SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON THAT COULD SUPPORT A NORTHEAST SHIFT TO WINDS NEAR THE
LAKE...WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST LARGE SCALE GRADIENT SUGGESTING
MDW/GYY THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE REACHED BY
POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP WITH MOISTENING IN COOL
ADVECTION...WHICH SHOULD LIFT BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALSO PRODUCE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHRA AT/NEAR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE AFFECTING ORD/MDW.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. LAKE BREEZES PSBL WED/THUR.
SUNDAY...CHC TSRA.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
224 AM CDT
MAIN MARINE FOCUS IS WITH GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE
ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS. WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE
LIKELY AS UNSEASONABLY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFICIENT MIXING OF MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE-INDUCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE.
THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE LAKES ALLOWING MODEST SOUTH FLOW TO RETURN.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
238 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN EXIT
NORTHWEST KANSAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER COLORADO WEDNESDAY.
FOR THIS MORNING, CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST
FA. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THESE STORMS WILL TRAVERSE OVER THIS AREA
UNTIL AROUND 18Z. PLAN TO USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENT.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, PLAN TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF
THUNDERTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM INDICATED FROM 400 TO 1000
J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN EASTERN COLORADO. SHEAR
VALUES ARE FROM 50 TO 55KTS. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY, DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO IMPACT THE
FA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND OVERSPREAD THE FA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM THIS TROUGH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY DYNAMICS START TO WANE
ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL SUPPORT
MORE THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWERS. PLAN TO CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING TO CHANCE
THURSDAY MORNING AND SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
WILL MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL BE NIL
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH READINGS IN THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
INITIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
CONVECTION IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE LATE SATURDAY IN A RELATIVELY
SHORT WINDOW WHEN WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES COMMENCE BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS.
ONE OR MORE DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE PERTURBATIONS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
COULD PROVIDE WEAK FORCING TO AID IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS LACKING CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
BUILDING UPPER HIGH...MAINLY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS PERSISTENTLY SHARPER WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH
THAN ECMWF WITH DIFFERENCES IN ITS POSITION AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN EITHER CASE THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND BELOW CLIMO POPS FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
APPROACH OR EXCEED 597 DM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING BETWEEN LIMON AND FLAGLER
INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 17Z. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP VCTS
MENTIONS IN BOTH LOCATIONS AS THE SPOTTY NATURE WILL MAKE A
DETERMINISTIC THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR A GIVEN POINT VERY
DIFFICULT AT THIS MOMENT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1149 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
00Z MODELS CONTINUING TREND OF PRODUCING 200-500 J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE AFTER 08Z IN AREA OF PERSISTENT PRESSURE ADVECTION ON 310K
SURFACE. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FROM RAP AND NAM INDICATE
SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THIS LEVEL AND WITH CINH ERODING
THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS
ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT COVERAGE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT
THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 549 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS COLORADO AND HAVE FINE TUNED TIMING OF CHANCES ACROSS
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH CHANGING AIR MASS WILL
LIMIT SFC INSTABILITY...RAP/NAM AND VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS
INDICATING STRONG WAA DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. CAPE/CINH PROFILES
WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED INITIATION BUT STILL HAVE A
FEW CONCERNS ABOUT CINH WHICH KEEP CHANCES LOW. WILL RE EVALUATE TO
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AFTER 00Z DATA COMES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COMBINED WITH A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT
RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO. MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH FAIRLY GOOD DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KTS MAY RESULT IN A SEVERE STORM OR TWO BEFORE
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AFTER SUNSET AND GRADUAL DISSIPATION.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP AHEAD TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...BY THE
AFTERNOON FALLING HEIGHTS AS THAT SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WHICH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
AXIS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHERE UP TO 2500 J/KG IS
FORECAST WITH EXCELLENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-60KTS. AS A
RESULT...SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. LCLS AND 0-1KM HELICITY FORECASTS WOULD SEEM TO
RULE OUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF SHEAR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ONCE AGAIN
MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM INCLUDE THE THE TRANSITION
FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...IN
ADDITION TO THE LIKELY POSSIBILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN TROUGH WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND ROTATES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SHORT
WAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN BREAKING DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL WAVES EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN TIMING
AND POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SEVERAL OF THE MINOR SHORT
WAVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT BECOME MORE DIVERGENT AND OUT
OF PHASE WITH SUBSEQUENT ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT...COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL
STAY OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS AS THE AIRMASS FINALLY
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT
AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER
EASTERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS AND PERSISTENT GENERALLY
MOIST UPSLOPE RETURN FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASSING OVER THE REGION...FEEL
THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUING FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS A
RESULT. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. HAVE ONLY PUT
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING BETWEEN LIMON AND FLAGLER
INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 17Z. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP VCTS
MENTIONS IN BOTH LOCATIONS AS THE SPOTTY NATURE WILL MAKE A
DETERMINISTIC THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR A GIVEN POINT VERY
DIFFICULT AT THIS MOMENT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1157 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z FORECAST. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO SAG TWD THE SOUTH. THE PROB GROUP WAS
REPLACED WITH A TEMPO AT KAEX BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS...WHILE THE PROB GROUPS WERE RETAINED AT
THE I-10 TERMINALS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LESS SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THAN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ONLY A FEW SHRA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING. OUR ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS NE TX/N LA WITH THE
LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/PRE FRONTAL TROF PRODUCED FROM THE TSRA
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SUGGESTING CONVECTION RE-FIRING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS THE DAYBREAK HOURS AS
IT CONTINUES SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT
EXPECTED AFTER 12Z ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA...AND AREAWIDE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE REGION.
THUS...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING...MAINLY
LEAVING IT AT 20%...BUMPING IT UP A BIT FOR INLAND SE TX/C LA
AFTER 06Z FOR POSSIBLE RE-INITIATION ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
RECENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND KLFT HAS DIMINISHED...LEAVING
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CONCERN TOMORROW SHIFTING
TOWARD CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. ADDED VCTS AND PROB
GROUPS STARTING 12Z AT KAEX...AND 18Z FARTHER SOUTH AT THE I-10
TERMINALS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY TO
BEGIN SOONER...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THE BULK
OF ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TIED TO/ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE SEA BREEZE IS KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TOWARDS SUNSET. STORMS OVER THE LAKES REGION
ARE BEING SUPPORT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING OFF TO THE WEST
TODAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER EAST TEXAS
AND SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AROUND THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA IS TRAVELING TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS WILL INCREASE OVER CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS COMBINATION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY... DEEP GULF
MOISTURE... THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST TEXAS
AND FINALLY A WEAK COOL FRONT OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AT THIS TIME
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ALSO
THIS WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON TEMPS A LITTLE IN CHECK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL REFLECT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY
GULF WINDS WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S INLAND TO NEAR 80
AT THE COAST.
THE COOL FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKING
FOR A SMALL DROP IN TEMPS. IN ADDITION THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
DRAG DOWN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THAT WILL HELP STORMS DEVELOPMENT ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 76 91 73 90 / 20 50 30 30
KBPT 76 92 74 91 / 20 50 30 30
KAEX 75 89 68 89 / 30 50 20 20
KLFT 76 91 72 91 / 20 50 30 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1145 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT MOST TERMINALS THIS PD...MAINLY PRIOR TO
18Z...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT REDUCED
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH ANY PREVAILING TSTMS...BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH N WINDS AROUND 10
KTS EXPECTED AFTER FROPA. WINDS WILL BECOME NEAR-CALM AFTER SUNSET
TUESDAY. /12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER AR/NE TX CONVECTION EXTENDED
FROM NEAR ELD TO JUST SOUTH OF SHREVEPORT TO SOUTH OF TYR/LFK AT
THIS HOUR. CONVECTION WAS NON EXISTENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT NEW CONVECTION WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP NORTH AND
WEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR.
A QUICK LOOK AT THE HRRR AND THE NEW NAM OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT AS
THE TRUE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...NEW CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO MIMIC
THIS THINKING OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AND FOR THIS REASON...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR TUESDAY
WITH PRECIP ENDING DURING THE MORNING I-20 AND NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS AND ALL OTHER GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO ADDITIONAL
CHANGES NECESSARY TONIGHT.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 89 66 88 68 / 50 40 10 20 40
MLU 72 89 61 87 64 / 50 50 10 10 20
DEQ 67 86 60 81 64 / 30 20 20 20 60
TXK 72 87 61 84 65 / 40 20 10 20 50
ELD 70 87 60 85 65 / 50 20 10 10 30
TYR 73 90 68 88 71 / 40 40 10 30 50
GGG 73 90 67 88 70 / 40 40 10 30 40
LFK 74 92 71 91 73 / 40 50 20 30 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
458 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM/...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO BASED ON LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN MARGINAL OVERNIGHT AND
HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS CIN ERODING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PASS THROUGH BUT EVEN THEN
EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST TO ACCOMPANY ANY
SHOWERS...WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIN CAPE PROFILES AND ELS ONLY
UP TO ABOUT 20KFT. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE TO LOW.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE RIDGES BY EARLY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING AND DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS AS MINOR SHORTWAVES
ALOFT PASS OVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH...AND AS A
RESULT...HAVE SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN NOW LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. BY MONDAY UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...IFR CIGS HAVE ONLY DEVELOPED IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
THOUGHT THAT WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS WOULD BE THE CASE...ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC AT THIS POINT. ANY RESTRICTIONS THAT
DO OCCUR SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING WITH COLD FRONT BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS WITH IFR VSBY WL MAR A GENL VFR FORECAST FOR
UPR OH VALLEY TERMINALS THIS EVE AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SLIDES OVR
THE REGION. MOIST SW FLOW ON THE ERN FLANK OF THAT TROUGH WL SPPRT
FURTHER DETERIORATION LTR TNGT IN THE FORM OF IFR ST AFTR MIDNGT.
IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST BY TUE AFTN WITH DECISIVE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME RESTRICTIONS MAY DVLP WITH STRATOCU AND SCT SHWRS AS THE UPR
LOW SLIDES ACRS THE REGION ON WED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
428 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY ACROSS
THE REGION AS A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD TODAY.
THIS MORNING...THE SOMEWHAT RAGGED MID/UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED NEAR GRB. MEANWHILE...AN ACTIVE REGION OF 500 HPA
FGEN/DEFORMATION AS ANALYZED BY RAP ANALYSIS IS FORCING MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE NW CWA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A SURGE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AND IS
BRINGING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE
MID/UPPER LOW SLOWLY DEPARTING EASTWARD...PROGRESSION OF THIS PRECIP
WILL BE QUITE SLOW. HOWEVER...WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING NOTED
UPSTREAM...EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS UNDER
THE DEFORMATION BAND AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING. ALSO...A WEAK IMPULSE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AS
NOTED IN WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BRING A BATCH OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE FAR EAST CWA THROUGH MID MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP COVERAGE BECOMES MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN BY THIS TIME AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS PULLING MOST PRECIP OUT OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT AM QUITE HESITANT TO FOLLOW THIS TREND.
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYING ACROSS THE WEST ON TOP OF REMAINING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING COULD INDUCE ISOLATED
LOW-LEVEL SHOWER ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE NORTH WIND STABILIZATION OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL EARLY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CWA.
MADE ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY. OVERALL...THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
MID-JULY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST WHERE SOME CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE LOW 60S WHILE NORTHERLY
WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEP NORTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE 50S. PLACES
ACROSS THE EAST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY EVEN FAIL TO REACH 50 GIVEN
THE LONG FETCH OVER WATERS STILL IN THE UPPER 30S.
TONIGHT...SEVERAL CHALLENGES ARE PRESENT IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
MAIN ONE BEING POTENTIAL FROST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. AM
BEGINNING TO HAVE DECENT CONCERNS THAT LOW-CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE WEST HALF BEFORE LATE
TONIGHT. THE EAST HALF LOOKS TO REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH LOW-CLOUDS AND
STEADY NNW GRADIENT FLOW. THE 00Z NAM WAS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN
REMOVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING...BUT HAS BACKED OFF AND
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GEM AS OF THE 06Z RUN. HAVE
FOLLOWED THIS IDEA AND DELAYED THE DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. WITH THAT SAID...THE WESTERN THIRD OF UPPER MI HAS
THE BEST CHANCE TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST 6 HOURS OF DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.
THROUGH...PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 0.6 INCH ARE NOT OVERALL IMPRESSIVE
FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. WITH GUIDANCE THAT NORMALLY PERFORMS WELL FOR
PRIME COOLING NIGHTS ADVERTISING TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
WEST...HAD A HARD TIME GOING WELL BELOW GUIDANCE. KEPT THE GOING
FORECAST OF UPPER 30S FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS...BUT INCREASED
LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE CENTRAL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME PATCHY FROST FOR THOSE COLD SPOTS...SO CONTINUED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NAM TAKES THE 500 MB TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE AREA 12Z WED
AND HEADS IT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. GFS DOES THE
SAME THING. BASICALLY...LOOKS QUIET AND DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI. GFS AND THE
ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z
SAT. THE GFS THEN BECOMES MUCH FASTER TAKING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EAST 12Z SUN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
TROUGH NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUE
12Z MON WITH THE GFS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS A MORE ZONAL LOOK TO IT WITH THE 500 MB PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND THIS PERIOD WITH IT REMAINING DRY
THROUGH SAT. IT WILL ALSO GET INCREASINGLY HUMID WITH DEW POINTS
INCREASING THIS WEEKEND. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A FRONT NEARS THE AREA AND THE AIRMASS GETS
UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
APPROACHING NEAR NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
BKN BANDS OF SHRA TO THE W AND N ARE DROPPING S AND E INTO THE AREA
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN WI MOVES S AND E. AS THESE SHRA
SWING ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
KIWD/KCMX TO GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK. KSAW WILL SEE
CONDITIONS FALL TO IFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS -SHRA ARRIVE.
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TODAY AND DRIER AIR
ARRIVES...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THEN VFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
LAST AT KSAW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VFR HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NNW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
LAKE HURON SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. PATCHY FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE WITH ANY
SHOWERS...WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AFTER THE RIDGE CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO UP TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
341 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN QUEBEC TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A LOW ON THE SW FLANK OF THE
TROUGH LOCATED OVER NW WI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE LOW
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTED A BAND OF SHRA THROUGH
CNTRL/ERN CWA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA AS SBCAPE VALUES NEARED 500
J/KG. ALTHOUGH SHRA COVERAGE HAD DIMINISHED WIT MAINLY SCT/ISOLD
LIGHTER SHOWERS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE SHRA COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...ANY TSRA SHOULD ALSO END. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO
STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCT SHRA. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD LOWER MI...DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
WEAK FGEN/DEF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH RAIN COVERAGE/POPS INCREASING OVERNIGHT.
TUE...THE SHRA...ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE INTO THE TERRAIN OF N CNTRL
UPPER MI...WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES (NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE) WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S N DOWNWIND OF NNW FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NAM TAKES THE 500 MB TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE AREA 12Z WED
AND HEADS IT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. GFS DOES THE
SAME THING. BASICALLY...LOOKS QUIET AND DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI. GFS AND THE
ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z
SAT. THE GFS THEN BECOMES MUCH FASTER TAKING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EAST 12Z SUN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
TROUGH NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUE
12Z MON WITH THE GFS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS A MORE ZONAL LOOK TO IT WITH THE 500 MB PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND THIS PERIOD WITH IT REMAINING DRY
THROUGH SAT. IT WILL ALSO GET INCREASINGLY HUMID WITH DEW POINTS
INCREASING THIS WEEKEND. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A FRONT NEARS THE AREA AND THE AIRMASS GETS
UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
APPROACHING NEAR NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
BKN BANDS OF SHRA TO THE W AND N ARE DROPPING S AND E INTO THE AREA
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN WI MOVES S AND E. AS THESE SHRA
SWING ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
KIWD/KCMX TO GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK. KSAW WILL SEE
CONDITIONS FALL TO IFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS -SHRA ARRIVE.
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TODAY AND DRIER AIR
ARRIVES...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THEN VFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
LAST AT KSAW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VFR HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH INTO
THE WRN LAKES WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
SLIGHTLY AND EXTENDS A TROUGH WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE HURON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING S TO SW FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
126 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN QUEBEC TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A LOW ON THE SW FLANK OF THE
TROUGH LOCATED OVER NW WI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE LOW
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTED A BAND OF SHRA THROUGH
CNTRL/ERN CWA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA AS SBCAPE VALUES NEARED 500
J/KG. ALTHOUGH SHRA COVERAGE HAD DIMINISHED WIT MAINLY SCT/ISOLD
LIGHTER SHOWERS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE SHRA COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...ANY TSRA SHOULD ALSO END. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO
STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCT SHRA. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD LOWER MI...DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
WEAK FGEN/DEF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH RAIN COVERAGE/POPS INCREASING OVERNIGHT.
TUE...THE SHRA...ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE INTO THE TERRAIN OF N CNTRL
UPPER MI...WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES (NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE) WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S N DOWNWIND OF NNW FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS GIVEN US THE CHANCES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT REACHING THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER BY 06Z/16.
THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN U.P. CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF THE BROAD
TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL LINGERING/WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO KEEP
MAINLY CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE BETTER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME LIMITING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE EASTERN U.P.
WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. SEE DRIER AIR SLIDE
IN...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES TO COOL. PWAT VALUES
OVER THE WEST ARE PROGGED TO BE ROUGHLY 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...CREATING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING PROVIDED
WINDS LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES COULD BE QUITE CHILLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.P. WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S...WITH A FEW OF THE USUALLY COLDER LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE
MID 30S. IF WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH OVER THESE AREAS IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT PATCHY FROST COULD FORM. FOR A COMPARISON...NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE RIGHT AROUND THE MID 50S THIS TIME OF YEAR. ADDED PATCHY
FROST FOR PORTIONS OF THE INLAND WEST...HOWEVER...AM NOT EXPECTING
FROST TO BE WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WHILE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE NEAR THE
INFLECTION POINT OF THE TWO WITH HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE U.P. THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY AND TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY
EVENING...PLACING THE CWA IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR TEMPERATURES IS A GRADUAL RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL KEEPING CLOUD COVER FAIRLY
LIMITED...OTHER THAN SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE THE AREA IS
PROGGED TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AS UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGHING BEGINS
TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
TIME FRAME. THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND GENERAL PATTERN DIFFERENCE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO BE EXACT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE TROUGH MAY HAVE A BIT
OF TROUBLE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVER THE EAST...HAVE DECIDED TO
STICK CLOSELY TO THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
BKN BANDS OF SHRA TO THE W AND N ARE DROPPING S AND E INTO THE AREA
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN WI MOVES S AND E. AS THESE SHRA
SWING ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
KIWD/KCMX TO GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK. KSAW WILL SEE
CONDITIONS FALL TO IFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS -SHRA ARRIVE.
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TODAY AND DRIER AIR
ARRIVES...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THEN VFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
LAST AT KSAW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VFR HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH INTO
THE WRN LAKES WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
SLIGHTLY AND EXTENDS A TROUGH WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE HURON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING S TO SW FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO
KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL. IT WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH
SHOWERS AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CREATE A WARMING TREND TO THE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. BASED ON THE LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND FCST OF THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE IN
TONIGHT...WE HAVE DELAYED THE HIGHER CHCS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN
THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT TAKES PLACE WITH THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. THEY HAVE BEEN MORE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SE CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH...AND ACROSS THE N/NW WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD
POOL ALOFT IS MOVING IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW.
SATELLITE SHOWS A RATHER POTENT UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING IN OUR
DIRECTION. UPSTREAM SOUNDING FROM INL SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE TO THE
TROP. AS THIS COLD SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE RELATIVELY WARMER
GREAT LAKES IT WILL PICK UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO AN INCREASING AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND MORE SO
TUESDAY MORNING. THUS I AM FEATURING HIGHER THAN MOS POPS.
LOCATIONS FAVORED WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SEE THE HIGHEST POPS.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWING UP...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THUS I WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK IN THERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. NORTHWEST COUNTIES MAY
STAY IN THE 50S WITH RAIN TUESDAY. IF THE RAIN DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...MY FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
TOO LOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP
IT DRY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO
VARY ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER
AND SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
DEEPER AND WOULD LIKELY HOLD OFF THE STORMS UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL
KEEP KEEP THE RISK FOR STORMS GOING FOR SUNDAY AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES AS A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION BRING IN A MILDER AIRMASS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS LWR MI AT MIDNIGHT EXCEPT
ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WHERE/WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING. ALSO SOME POCKETS OF IFR FOG/STRATUS WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT AFTER A SHOWER HAD OCCURRED.
AFTER 09Z AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD 12Z CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MVFR
CIGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASES. SOME IFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY AT MKG.
THE LOWER CIGS WILL LINGER MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING
GRADUALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD BECOME THE PREDOMINATE
CONDITION AFTER 18Z-21Z WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS
BY TUESDAY EVENING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT FEEL THE PROBABILITY AT ANY ONE LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE TS/CB IN THE TAFS. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE THE
LOWER CEILINGS EARLY TUESDAY... AS WELL AS THE INCREASING WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
STILL ON TRACK FOR BUILDING WAVES. FSL RUC SHOWS GREATER THAN 25
KNOTS ARRIVING 10Z TO 14Z TIMEFRAME...THEN PERSISTING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COUPLED WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AND AN UNSTABLE LAKE
SUPPORTS WAVES WELL OVER 4 FEET. NOT SURE WHY GLERL DOES NOT
REALLY SHOW THIS. IN ANY EVENT IT SHOULD BE A HAZARDOUS DAY FOR
SWIMMING AND BOATING WITH SMALL CRAFT. WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
QPF VALUES LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER A HALF IN FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGHEST VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW. GENERALLY THIS IS FOR THE LOWER HALF OF OUR RIVER BASINS.
NOT ENOUGH QPF IS FORECASTED TO CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE TO FLOOD
STAGE. LOOKS DRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-
056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1246 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 824 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA.
MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ARROWHEAD...THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI. THESE SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES
AROUND THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE EASTERN FA. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE UPPER LOW AS OF 1945Z WAS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND SHOWERS
CONTINUED TO IMPACT MOST OF THE REGION. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY.
WE HAVE NOT DETECTED ANY LIGHTNING SO FAR ACROSS OUR CWA BUT THERE
WERE SOME STRONGER SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1-2
HOURS. MUCAPE VALUES RANGED FROM 100-500J/KG ACROSS THE CWA SO AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WE DO EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE SHOWERS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WE DID INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HOWEVER WE DID EVENTUALLY
DRY OUT MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY
TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE MID TO UPPER
FORTIES FOR MOST AREAS. THE RAP SUGGESTS LOWER CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO DIMINISH. THERE WERE STILL QUITE A BIT OF UPSTREAM CLOUDS.
IF WE DO CLEAR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...LOWS WILL HAVE TO BE
DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TUESDAY...BUT WE DO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS GOING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE SHOULD ALSO
SEE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT...RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
MANY WILL PROBABLY CONSIDER THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE WEEK PLEASANT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEM. THE GFS
HAS A NE TO SW ORIENTATED TROUGH MOVING SE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND INDICATES THE NORTHLAND WILL GET
SIGNIFICANT PCPN DURING THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND
GEM STALL THE TROUGH WELL NORTH OF THE NORTHLAND AND KEEP THE
NORTHLAND DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...AND TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PREFERENCE IS FOR THE ECMWF AND GEM SINCE
THESE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT1244 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCT SHOWERS INTO NW WI.
MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR. GUSTY
SFC WINDS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING AND DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 49 73 52 74 / 10 0 0 10
INL 46 75 49 77 / 0 0 0 10
BRD 50 76 54 77 / 0 0 0 10
HYR 46 75 49 75 / 10 0 0 10
ASX 45 71 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GF/DC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1135 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS FORECAST OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT AT KLVS AND KTCC WHERE MVFR CIGS IN LOW
STRATUS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
CONVECTION...BUT SHORT-LIVED IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. CURRENT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SLOW TO DIMINISH AND SUSPECT IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. KSAF IS TERMINAL MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED OVERNIGHT.
EAST CANYON/GAP WIND THE RESULT OF A MASSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
FORECAST TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH KSAF...KABQ AND KLVS
THE TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD REMAINS ON TAP THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE STATE. THE REPLENISHMENT OF MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR AN ACTIVE TUESDAY AREA WIDE. THEN YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD STORMS. CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTER MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. ON
THURSDAY...WESTERN AREAS WILL DRY OUT SOME...BUT EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WILL STILL REMAIN ACTIVE. STORM COVERAGE WILL LESSEN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE EVENING ON TAP TONIGHT. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT RACING
DOWN THE PLAINS OF COLORADO WILL SOON MOVE INTO NE NM. STORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT AND EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NM PLAINS AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH AND FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. SEVERAL
CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE LOCAL WRF SHOW
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT. A COMBINATION OF
THE FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM AS
WELL. BOTTOM LINE IS ANYWHERE MAY RECEIVE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THIS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.
THE MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY ON TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW MUCH THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WORKED OVER FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION...BUT EVEN
IF IT IS A LATER START TOMORROW...IT STILL IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
ACTIVE. MUCH LIKE TONIGHT...THE LOCAL WRF IS SHOWING CONVECTION
FIRST DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN AND NE NM...AND STEERING FLOW WILL
TAKE THE STORMS SOUTHWARD...AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/BUMPER CAR
EFFECT WILL ALLOW STORM COVERAGE TO EXPAND AS THEY HEAD SOUTH.
SHOULD ALSO SEE STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...BUT
OTHER FOCI FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO NE NM ON WEDNESDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES TOWARD NM IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND LIFT FROM THE FRONT PLUS
A REPLENISHMENT OF MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN YET
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND HIGH TERRAIN.
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT COULD BE ARGUED FOR ALMOST
ANYWHERE. IF WIDESPREAD STORMS OCCUR TONIGHT...THE GROUND WILL BE
PRIMED...AKA SOILS MAY BECOME SATURATED...SUCH THAT ADDITIONAL
STORMS TUES/WED MAY LEAD TO QUICKER RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING.
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY SQUEAK THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO GIVEN MODEST NW FLOW
ALOFT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO WESTERN NM ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE BACKED UP TO THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NUMEROUS STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
THURSDAY...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND SEWD. THUS...FLOODING WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN OVER EASTERN NM.
AS THE UPPER HIGH NUDGES NEAR AND OVER NM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...STORM COVERAGE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE. SOME RECYCLING
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR...THUS...A FEW STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STORMS
WILL BE OVER. THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN OVER NM OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THUS THE BIGGER STORY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
MAY BE THE HEAT AND POTENTIAL FOR TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE
EAST.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK. INITIAL HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH
WETTING RAIN CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
DRYING/WARMING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
STORM COVERAGE WILL INTENSIFY REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PUSHES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. WETTING RAIN WILL BE COMMONPLACE MOST AREAS WITH A LARGE
FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE LARGE AREAS OF
WETTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE.
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT FOCUS
MECHANISM FOR WETTING RAIN AND MOST LIKELY FAVOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGHER SIDE WEDNESDAY BUT LOWER
SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO TUESDAY MOST AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
FOR THE COLD FRONT BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING IT FOR THE PAST
WEEK. WHAT IS LESS CONFIDENT IS HOW FAR WEST THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING IT STALLING WITHIN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OR JUST TO THE WEST THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE STAGE IS SET FOR A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND THE
PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS RISING. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS PACIFIC TROUGH A STRONG MID
LEVEL DRY INTRUSION FOUND ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WOULD SINK SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SPOTTY
HAINES 6 VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BUT BECOME MORE APPARENT AND EXPAND DURING THE
WEEKEND. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WOULD LESSEN AND AFTERNOON READINGS
WOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WOULD TREND BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE FOOTPRINT OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD ALSO SHRINK CONSIDERABLY AND FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD. OUTFLOW/DOWNDRAFT WIND STRENGTHS WOULD INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRYING.
BREEZIEST CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOW
WINDS...APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST.
LONG RANGE MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
BUILDING AND INTENSIFYING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BACK OVER THE AREA
THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS HEAT PUMP SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE
QUITE SIGNIFICANT AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PAINTING THE STRONGEST
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OF THE YEAR THUS FAR FOR THIS PERIOD. WOULD HAVE TO
EXPECT HEAT WAVE LIKE TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS WITH
EVENTUALLY SOME RELIEF FROM A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT UNDERCUTTING THE
HIGH ACROSS THE EAST. WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE OPPRESSIVE RIDGE AND MOST LIKELY
DOMINANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT THAT COULD CHANGE SOME DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE HIGH CENTER. COULD RETURN BACK
TO LATE JUNE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...INCLUDING STRONG
OUTFLOWS/DOWNDRAFTS...ALTHOUGH FUEL MOISTURE VALUES HAVE RISEN QUITE
A BIT THANKS TO RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SO FIRE DANGER
LEVELS WOULD BE TEMPERED SOME.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
346 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE LONG-AWAITED COLD FRONT WAS MOVING TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURING FROM OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES INTO
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD BE SEEN UPSTREAM
WITH READINGS IN THE 50S AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
THE COLD FRONT SLOWS DOWN LATER THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HRRR AND TECH WRF INDICATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT 20-40 POPS
SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE-PALESTINE LINE. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH STRONGER COLD ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE LOW RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE A LULL IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE. LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 65-70 DEGREES WITHIN THE
DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 70-75 DEGREES ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH LIGHT ENE WINDS 5-10 MPH. SHOULD BE A NICE EVENING FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR TRANSITION DAY AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF
OUR NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO WILL HELP SURGE THE FIRST FRONT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER-
MID 90S OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO
THE WARM ADVECTION. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE
DAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WILL CARRY
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE RESULTANT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY THOSE AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. AN MCS IS HIGHLY PROBABLE WITH SOME THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
ENTER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ADDING A LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO
THE EQUATION. WE ARE MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. WE HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY
MCS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WITH STORMS CONTINUING DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF BOTH THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT. THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUING HIGH
CHANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE 5
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW MID JULY NORMALS WITH HIGHS 75-85 DEGREES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD DUE TO
THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES OR LOCALLY HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST YOU
GO. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT APPEARS DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH A LOWER THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALOFT NEAR 6 DEG/C.
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH DAMPENS THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH A
WEAKER TROUGH SETTLED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER WEST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN
WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF A WEAKNESS SETTING UP OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR ISOLATED
RAIN CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES TO ADD RAIN CHANCES IN AT THIS TIME. WHAT WE ARE
CERTAIN OF IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 90S BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1121 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
AS CONVECTION GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END...A RARE JULY COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO APPROACH NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. AN EARLIER
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AT AREA TAF SITES WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY...LIKELY ORIGINATING FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION NEAR THE RED RIVER. WINDS HAVE SINCE BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT EASES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE POSITIONED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA...NOW SOUTH OF KOKC.
TIMING OF FROPA IN THE METROPLEX LOOKS TO BE AROUND 09Z...THEN
CLOSER TO SUNRISE AT KACT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN ISOLATED
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE BOUNDARY ARRIVES...BUT THE
PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECASTS AT THIS
TIME. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUIETER DAY THAN TODAY...WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE WEATHER ARRIVING LATE WEDNESDAY.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 70 90 73 84 / 20 5 30 70 70
WACO, TX 93 71 94 75 90 / 20 20 20 50 50
PARIS, TX 86 65 86 67 79 / 10 10 20 70 80
DENTON, TX 90 69 89 72 83 / 10 10 30 70 70
MCKINNEY, TX 89 69 89 72 82 / 10 5 30 70 70
DALLAS, TX 90 70 90 73 84 / 20 5 30 70 70
TERRELL, TX 89 68 89 71 84 / 20 5 20 70 70
CORSICANA, TX 90 70 90 73 87 / 20 10 20 60 60
TEMPLE, TX 94 73 94 75 92 / 30 20 20 40 40
MINERAL WELLS, TX 90 68 90 72 86 / 20 10 30 70 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
327 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS...-SHRA CHANCES CENTERED ON THIS AFTERNOON...
VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT...COOL TEMPERATURES.
WELCOME TO THE MIDDLE OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER. IT SURE DOES NOT
FEEL LIKE IT EARLY THIS MORNING ON THIS 15TH OF JULY...WITH TEMPS
ACROSS ALL OF MN/IA/WI IN THE LOW-MID 50S...SOME 10-15F BELOW
NORMAL. DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR DETROIT
AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS FROM SASKAT TO KS. MUCH OF
MN/ IA/WI UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO. WV/IR IMAGERY
SHOWED THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WEST OF KGRB EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. ONE OF THESE NOW OVER
FAR SOUTHWEST WI RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BAND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA THAT
MOVED THRU MUCH OF THE FCST AREA MON EVENING. IR/WV IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWED A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF THE EASTERN WI MID LEVEL
LOW...PIVOTING SOUTHWEST FROM EASTERN ONT TO WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND
INTO NORTHWEST WI.
INITIALIZATIONS OF 15.00Z MODELS LOOK GOOD...BUT FOR GFS BEING ABOUT
5F TOO HIGH ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MODELS OFFER A RATHER TIGHT CONSENSUS TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN WI MOVES EAST TODAY THEN LIFTS INTO WESTERN
QUEBEC TONIGHT...WITH MN/WI/IA REMAINING UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TREND FAVORS SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH ECMWF AGAIN
SHOWING THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. SHORT TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE WITH COOL/GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
IN THE SHORT TERM...SEVERAL THINGS GOING FOR WIDELY SCT -SHRA ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA AGAIN TODAY. BAND OF MOISTURE OVER LK SUPERIOR
TO EASTERN ONT TO PIVOT SOUTHWEST INTO THE EAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS AS ONE MORE VORT LOBE IS PROGGED TO
ROTATE AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ACROSS THE FCST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 0.75
INCH IN THIS SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME
WEAK MUCAPE...GENERALLY LESS THAN 200 J/KG...OVER THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AND THE FCST AREA REMAINS ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 500-
300MB JET AXIS. THUS CONTINUED THE 20 PERCENT -SHRA CHANCES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA MUCH OF TODAY...DECREASING FROM THE WEST AND
NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE FORCING/LIFT
MOVE EAST/SOUTH AND DRIER 850-700MB AIR MOVES IN.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WED MORNING. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS THE LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC AND THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN
MN/IA. DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT AND DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE WEAKER GRADIENT.
WITH DEW POINTS TONIGHT PROGGED TO START OUT IN THE 50-55F RANGE AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...RADIATIONAL FOG APPEARS LIKELY IN
THE FAVORED...DECOUPLED LOW LAYING AREAS/RIVER VALLEYS. PREVIOUS
SHIFT ADDED FOG MENTION TO THE MS/WI RIVER VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT AND
THIS LOOKS GOOD. ADDED FOG MENTION TO THE CENTRAL WI LOW LAYING
AREAS ALONG/ NORTHEAST OF I-94. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS
FOR TODAY THEN LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT
WITH THE LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MAIN CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VALLEY FOG
POTENTIAL LATE WED NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE 15.00Z MODELS FOR THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES LOW/TOUGH TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST WED/WED NIGHT.
TIGHTENING CONSENSUS FOR SOME FORM OF A SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING WEST
OF HUDSONS BAY TO DROP TOWARD THE FCST AREA THU THEN ACROSS THE AREA
THU NIGHT. EVEN AS THIS WAVE DROPS IN THU/THU NIGHT HGTS SLOWLY RISE
AS THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND ENERGY FLATTENS THE WESTERN
NOAM RIDGING. GIVEN THE DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS...FCST CONFIDENCE IN
THE WED THRU THU NIGHT PERIOD REMAINS GOOD.
WED THRU THU NIGHT CONTINUES TO SHAPE UP AS A DRY/QUIET PERIOD WITH
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH LIFTS OUT
AND HGTS SLOWLY RISE. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT WITH A LIGHT/WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. FAVORABLE
SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A DRIER COLUMN ALOFT FOR MDT/STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEW POINTS WED NIGHT START OUT IN THE 50-55F RANGE... WITH
LOWS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS LATE
WED NIGHT TO BE LESS THAN 10KTS TO NEARLY 700MB...A FAVORABLE SIGNAL
FOR VALLEY FOG FORMATION. ADDED FOG MENTION TO THE SAME AREAS AS
TONIGHT IN THE 06Z-13Z THU PERIOD.
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FOR THU POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A -SHRA CHANCE
CENTERED ON THU AFTERNOON. SFC-500MB WINDS REMAIN QUITE LIGHT THU
WITH MINIMAL LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT SEEN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME SMALL CAPE THU
AFTERNOON...EITHER VERY SKINNY TO 500MB OR CAPPED BELOW 700MB.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE THU AFTERNOON BUT
WILL LEAVE THU GRIDS DRY FOR NOW. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIP EAST
THU NIGHT WITH A BIT MORE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. WITH
THE DEEP LAYERED VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT LATE THU NIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING/BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING...MAY YET NEED
TO ADD LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG MENTION TO THE GRIDS FOR THE 06Z-13Z
FRI PERIOD. WILL LEAVE THIS OUT FOR NOW PENDING HOW MUCH FOG
DEVELOPS THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT...THOUGH DID FAVOR COOLER
OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR WED NIGHT.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...OR NOT...SAT
NIGHT TROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
DECENT CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS FOR HGTS TO CONTINUE TO RISE FRI WITH
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS BY LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT.
REASONABLE BETWEEN MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR HGTS TO RISE/RIDGING TO
BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM LATE SAT INTO MON. HOWEVER THIS RESULTS IN
RATHER POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE SAT THRU MON PERIOD. FCST
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO GOOD FRI/SAT THEN AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE
SUN/MON.
FRI/SAT CONTINUE TO TREND DRY WITH DRIER SFC HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION AND HGTS ALOFT SLOWLY RISING. 925-
850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM WITH HIGHS FRI/SAT REACHING
CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. TREND/CONSENSUS OF 15.00Z MODELS BUILDS
MID LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS SAT NIGHT INTO MON.
THIS SHUNTS SHORTWAVES COMING OUT OF TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST
WELL WEST/NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE STRONGER FLUX OF MOISTURE
INCREASE/INSTABILITY AXIS IS WEST/NORTH OF THE FCST AREA AS WELL.
700MB WARMING MAY ALSO CAP THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SUN/MON.
THUS PER COLLABORATION WITH MANY OF THE NEIGHBORS...REDUCED OR
REMOVED MUCH OF THE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FROM SAT NIGHT INTO MON.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU MON GENERALLY
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGING/DRYING TREND FOR SAT
THRU MON CONTINUES...HIGHS IN THE FCST GRIDS THESE DAYS MAY BE A
CATEGORY TOO COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE CLOUDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR TO SCATTERED CONDITIONS NOW OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...BUT THESE SEEM TO BE DISSIPATING AS THEY ROTATE SOUTH AND
APPROACH THE AREA. BOTH THE 15.00Z NAM AND 15.03Z RAP SOUNDINGS
WOULD SUGGEST THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO SCATTERED OVERNIGHT SO
HAVE GONE THAT ROUTE. WITH JUST A LITTLE BIT OF HEATING TUESDAY
MORNING SHOULD SEE RAPID REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CLOUDS WITH VFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING ALONG WITH SOME MORE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS MONDAY.
THE NAM TRIES TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
MOISTURE IS LIKELY TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
AIRPORTS AND ALSO HAVE ONLY SOME WEAK OR NO VERTICAL MOTION. HAVE
OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AND NOT INCLUDE ANY VCSH. THE
CLOUDS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
RECORD COOL HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY/TONIGHT AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
FOR LA CROSSE...
TODAY....FORECAST HIGH 71. RECORD 68 IN 1962
TONIGHT...FORECAST LOW 51. RECORD 49 IN 1912
FOR ROCHESTER...
TODAY....FORECAST HIGH 67. RECORD 67 IN 1962
TONIGHT...FORECAST LOW 50. RECORD 44 IN 1933
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....04
CLIMATE......AJ/RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1144 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...SHOWER
CHANCES TUESDAY...AND VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS OF 3 PM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RAP 500 MB HEIGHTS
SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVING INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE STRONG COOLING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE DAYTIME
HEATING WAS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.
TEMPERATURES WERE HELD IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH A STEADY NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH. CERTAINLY THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOME
AREAS TODAY HAS THE LOOK AND FEEL MORE TYPICAL OF OCTOBER
14...NOT JULY 14.
QUICK PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY THIS EVENING AND
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW ANY LINGERING SHOWERS /
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SMALL CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH RESIDES CLOSER TO THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR LARGE STRATUS DECK
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...THAT IS PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GFS/NAM RH FIELDS SHOW THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. DESPITE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES OF -1 TO -2...AND THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MASS / +4 TO
+6C / OVERHEAD...SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER IS
LIKELY TO KEEP READINGS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. PLAN ON LOWS TO VARY A
FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 50.
FOR TUESDAY...LITTLE MODERATION IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP
THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER CONTINUING. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY MOVES INTO MICHIGAN...AND AT THE SURFACE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. COULD
NOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER ALONG AND EAST OF MS RIVER AS
SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED CUMULUS BY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS MORE FAVORABLE. USED BIAS-
CORRECTED GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS COOLER READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SOME OF THE MORE RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
VARY FROM LOW/MID 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS...TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.
INTRODUCED PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MS AND WISCONSIN RIVERS...GIVEN
ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR MASS...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 3 TO 3.5 KM AS
SEEN FROM NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND RECENT WET CONDITIONS.
WHILE MID JULY IS NOT THE FAVORED TIME FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG...FEEL
THAT THE MORE PRONE AREAS ALONG THE MS AND WISCONSIN RIVERS WILL
SEE SOME FOG.
BENIGN WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH MAIN WEATHER FEATURE BEING
THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. PLAN ON SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EACH DAY...LIGHT WINDS...AND A DRIER AIR MASS. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...AND LOWS IN THE
50S. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE 14.12Z GUIDANCE BEGIN BY
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE GFS SWINGS THIS FEATURE THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...MOISTURE TRANSPORT RETURN IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE AND THERE IS A LACK OF INSTABILITY AS WELL. CONSENSUS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY LOOK GOOD AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVER BY THE WEEKEND...THOUGH STILL
REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...OR IN THE LOW
80S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE CLOUDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR TO SCATTERED CONDITIONS NOW
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. STILL PLENTY OF
CLOUDS UPSTREAM...BUT THESE SEEM TO BE DISSIPATING AS THEY ROTATE
SOUTH AND APPROACH THE AREA. BOTH THE 15.00Z NAM AND 15.03Z RAP
SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO SCATTERED
OVERNIGHT SO HAVE GONE THAT ROUTE. WITH JUST A LITTLE BIT OF
HEATING TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE RAPID REDEVELOPMENT OF THE
CLOUDS WITH VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING ALONG WITH SOME
MORE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH AS MONDAY. THE NAM TRIES TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
HOWEVER...THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE IS LIKELY TOO SHALLOW TO
SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE AIRPORTS AND ALSO HAVE ONLY SOME WEAK
OR NO VERTICAL MOTION. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
AND NOT INCLUDE ANY VCSH. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
FOR LA CROSSE...
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 70. RECORD 68 IN 1962
FOR ROCHESTER...
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 67. RECORD 67 IN 1962
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE......AJ/RRS/ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
356 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING
SHOWS THE NEXT FORECAST CONCERN MOVING ACROSS MONTANA...WHICH IS A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPINNING OVER NORTHERN IDAHO
AND WESTERN MONTANA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THEN EVENTUALLY RAPIDLY DIGGING
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN WYOMING BY TONIGHT.
LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY. WITH
DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH
DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR
NORTH...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA AS WELL LATER TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. SEVERE TSTORMS
WILL BE THE FIRST CONCERN OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY THE MIDDLE OF
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE DEVELOPS
ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING AND GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHEAR ON TOP OF THE 0-6 KM SHEAR BETWEEN 4O
TO 55 KNOTS ALREADY PROGGED FROM CENTRAL WYOMING SE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...A RELATIVELY STRONG JET
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND STALL NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS TODAY AND INTO LATE THIS
EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL GIVEN 0-2 KM
SHEAR BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA APPEARS TO
BE THE HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING WEST OF A LINE FROM SIDNEY NEBRASKA
TO LUSK WYOMING...INCLUDING THE LARAMIE RANGE.
FOR TONIGHT...FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS
THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS SHOW RESPECTABLE QPF
VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE MANY LOCATIONS DO
NOT NEED THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF I25. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS AT THIS TIME. A FEW MODELS SHOW IT AS FAR
WEST AS THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH OTHERS SHOWING THE BAND ALONG THE
PINE RIDGE. INCREASED POP TONIGHT BETWEEN 50 TO 70 PERCENT ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND ADDED WORDING FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS ALL MODELS SHOW THE FEATURE REMAINING OVER CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN WYOMING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT TSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE DUE TO COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
MODELS INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR ALOFT TO PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST A FEW TSTORMS FROM
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST
WELL NORTH OF I80.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND TEMPORARY BREAK FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF AND GFS
ARE BOTH SHOWING A MID SUMMER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE THIS WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S AND 90S FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND SOME 60S INTO THE
PLAINS.
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE BUT SHOULD SEE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE
WORK ITS WAY UP FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECTING AT LEAST A COUPLE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS A FEW DAYS
WITH LESSER CHANCES INTO THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN SOMETIME EARLY TO MID NEXT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
CONFIDENCE GROWING THAT LOWER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP HERE AT KCYS
IN SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HRRR SHOWING LOWER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AT KCYS FROM 12 TO 16Z OR SO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING...THEN OVER THE PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1046 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG TSTMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE
EARLIER THIS EVE WITHIN A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THAT ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVED SOUTHEAST
INTO COLORADO AS EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TSTM IN FAR SOUTHERN LARAMIE COUNTY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVE
HOURS...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE DRY SIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CARBON AND
ALBANY COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH THE
MAIN HAZARD. BUMPED UP POPS OVER THAT AREA FOR ONGOING PCPN
TRENDS. QUITE A BIT OF ANVIL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT
NOW THAT MAY IMPACT LOW TEMPS. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CONSENSUS
MOS FOR TONIGHT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO POPS IN THE WESTERN NE
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND RUC SHOW CONSIDERABLE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH LLVL WARM ADVECTION ALONG A BFF TO SNY LINE WITH GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WHILE NO QPF SHOWS IN THE MODELS...THE LATEST
HRRR DOES HINT AT SOME ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING SOME ISOLATED POPS LATER ON FOR POSSIBLE
ELEVATED CONVECTION EAST OF THE FRONT. REMAINDER OF THE FCST IS ON
TRACK. STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY TOMORROW AM...WITH TSTM CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE AFTN AND EVE. STAY TUNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
PRETTY QUIET AFTN ACROSS THE CWA WITH MUCH OF THE STORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO. THE AIRMASS IS MORE STABLE TODAY WITH CAPE VALUES
GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG...THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER IN SOUTHWEST LARAMIE COUNTY WHERE CAPES ARE UP TO 1000
J/KG. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND ANY STORMS THAN INITIATE ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS
NORTHERN IDAHO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO WY ON
TUES WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER CARBON COUNTY IN THE AFTN. SFC WINDS
GO SOUTHEASTERLY TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE MORNING
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION. CAPE VALUES ARE
UP TO 1250-1500 BY THE AFTN FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD TO
ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER. BULK SHEAR IS EXCELLENT (50-55 KTS) DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THUS IT IS CONTINUING
TO LOOK LIKE AN ACTIVE SVR DAY IN SOUTHEAST WY AND LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDS. STORMS THAT INITIATE ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE WILL TEND TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OR EVEN TO THE
SOUTH IN THE CASE OF A RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELL. HAVE HIGH POPS (40-50
PERCENT) EXTENDING THROUGH MOST OF TUES NIGHT AS THE AREA WILL
STILL BE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
SHORTWAVE IS STILL OVERHEAD ON WED...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LESS THAN TUES. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON WED
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
COOLED TEMPS ON WED A FEW DEGREES SUCH THAT MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOT
GETTING MUCH ABOVE 70 DEGREES. CAPE VALUES DO NOT REALLY GET ABOVE
750...SO WHILE THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING...THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE REDUCED COMPARED TO
TUES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TIMEFRAME IS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB THIS WEEK...AND WHEN THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT:
THE MODELS ARE STARTING SHOW A FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS SHOWING A VERY SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ON THURSDAY
WITH SOME FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS
NOT AS BULLISH ON THE MOISTURE EXCEPT OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE MAIN
PROBLEM IS LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO LACK OF RETURN
FLOW FROM THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S AND 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. WE FOLLOWED
CLOSEST TO THE ENSEMBLE HIGHS WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE
700MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES WITH DEVIATIONS OF 2 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
FRIDAY-MONDAY:
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS ARE ALL SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVIDENCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS TROF WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TIMING OF THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES
WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL INDUCE GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY WILL BE
DECENT WITH DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE WEST TO EAST. BEYOND
THIS TIMEFRAME...IT APPEARS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
WARMUP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH 700MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
CONFIDENCE GROWING THAT LOWER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP HERE AT KCYS
IN SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HRRR SHOWING LOWER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AT KCYS FROM 12 TO 16Z OR SO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING...THEN OVER THE PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
630 AM MST TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA BEFORE MOISTURE VALUES START TO LOWER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON. MOISTURE STARTS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&
.UPDATE...RADAR AND FIRST COUPLE OF VISIBLE PICTURES SHOWING
POSSIBLE CIRCULATION OVER COCHISE COUNTY. THIS LIKELY EXPLAINS THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF WILLCOX. THE 10Z HRRR RUN SHOWED THIS
CIRCULATION WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER TODAY OCCURRING MOSTLY
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AS IT REMAINS OVER COCHISE
COUNTY. THAT WOULD PUT PINAL/ERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES THE
FAVORED AREAS FOR HEAVY RAINS AS MORNING TUCSON SOUNDING SHOWED HAD
PW OF 1.70" AND LITTLE FLOW BELOW 20KFT. NO UPDATE TO FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. WILL LET DAYSHIFT EVALUATE THE SITUATION A LITTLE BETTER
AS NEW MODEL GUIDANCE COMES IN. CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED 2+"
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATER TODAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WAS OCCURRING MOSTLY IN COCHISE
COUNTY LAST EVENING CONTINUED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY.
THESE SHOULD END BEFORE 5 AM. DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH
WILL WHICH DELAY ONSET OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. NO REAL FOCUSING
MECHANISM TODAY BUT THERE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
S-CNTRL/SW NM. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOW LIGHT FLOW
ALL THE WAY UP TO 20K FT AND COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.40" TO 1.60" RANGE...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. SO FLASH FLOODING THREAT ON THE
LOCALIZED BASIS IS ON THE HIGH SIDE WHILE SEVERE IS ON THE LOW END.
HOWEVER CAN`T PINPOINT WHICH AREA WILL SEE THE GREATEST THREAT.
LOCAL WRF RUNS SUGGEST COCHISE COUNTY AGAIN WHILE UOFA WRF RUNS NO
SO GUNG-HO. SO WILL NOT HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OBVIOUSLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY WOULD BE A CHOICE SINCE THIS
AREA IS RATHER SATURATED AFTER WHAT HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST WEEK.
SOMETHING FOR DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR.
WEDNESDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS PW VALUES START TO FALL ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY FROM TUCSON
EAST. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATING THAT PW VALUES
WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH AREA WIDE. THAT WOULD LIMIT ANY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON. WHILE THE
AREA DRYS OUT A BIT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ITS BEEN OVER A 10 DAYS WEEK SINCE TUCSON HAS
RECORDED AN ABOVE NORMAL HIGH.
MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN TO THE AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SELY. THUS EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES.
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST
CYCLE PACKAGE...LOOKS DOWN RIGHT HOT WITH BOTH GFS ON TUE AND ECMWF
ON WED...BASED ON 850-700 MB THICKNESS...HINTING AT 110 IN TUCSON.
STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THRU THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING
HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-7K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT
10-14K FT AGL WITH ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING BY 15/21Z. STORMS BECOMING
SCT-NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS/MT OBSCURATIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35-45 KTS IN THE
VICINITY OF TSRA BETWEEN 15/21Z AND 16/03Z. AFT 16/03Z STORMS BECMG
ISOLD. OTHERWISE...SFC WIND GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY IS FORECASTED
TODAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. EXPECT
STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD PICK BACK UP AGAIN DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
318 AM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWEST OVER
THE AREA ALLOWING FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AS WELL
AS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MIGRATE NORTH AND BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY ALLOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS TO FORM OVER
MAINLY KERN...TULARE...AND KINGS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z RUN OF
THE NAM DID INDICATE THAT SEVERAL VORT MAXES WOULD MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST INTO THE VALLEY DURING
THE TIME FRAME THAT SHOWERS FORMED. THE HRRR WAS A LITTLE SLOW TO
CAPTURE THE CURRENT SCENARIO...BUT IT DOES INDICATE THAT THE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OUT OF THE AREA...LEAVING
BEHIND DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OTHERWISE...WITH SIGNIFICANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES SO FAR ONLY FELL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S THROUGH MANY OF THE VALLEY AND DESERT LOCATIONS. IN
FACT...BAKERSFIELD SET AN ALL NEW RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR YESTERDAY...ONLY FALLING TO 83 DEGREES...WHICH BROKE THE OLD
RECORD OF 81 DEGREES SET IN 1972. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THESE HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS...WITH RECORDS
POSSIBLE.
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE SIERRA CREST AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME PART OF
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST WILL SEE CONVECTIVE ACTION...WITH MUCH
LESS CONFIDENCE OVER KERN COUNTY. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
KEEP ALL CONVECTION NORTH OF KERN COUNTY...HOWEVER...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...LEFT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE. WITH REGARDS TO THE
SIERRA CREST...MU CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO NEARLY 800
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...SIGNIFICANTLY MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN QUITE A FEW
MORE THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE HRRR DEVELOPS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CREST AS EARLY AS 19Z...WITH STORMS MOVING
WEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
FOOTHILLS...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AND POSSIBLY
ADDED TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
NORTH AS WELL. ON WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
OVER THE CREST AND BY FRIDAY...MAINLY FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD
ALONG THE CREST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND WEDNESDAY INTO THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE COOLEST DAYS OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON THESE DAYS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 90S THROUGH MANY OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BETWEEN 19Z TODAY AND 04Z WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY JULY 15 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-15 111:1972 83:1975 81:1984 54:1905
KFAT 07-16 111:1925 83:1958 80:1984 54:1905
KFAT 07-17 114:1925 78:1987 80:1984 56:1987
KBFL 07-15 114:1930 87:2011 85:1917 53:1905
KBFL 07-16 115:1925 84:1958 81:2010 52:1899
KBFL 07-17 114:1925 82:1987 81:2005 53:1905
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...RILEY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1011 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS ENDING...AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN
AND CENTRAL TACONICS UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY...
AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS NOT VERY UNSTABLE...AND HIGHEST PWATS IN
SOUTHERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN NY
WEAKENING AND SOME RAIN IS BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN PA. CLOUD COVER QUITE WIDESPREAD BUT SOME HOLES AND
THIN SPOTS IN PARTS OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOLES
AND THIN SPOTS SHOWING SIGNS OF CLOSING ALREADY WITH ALL THE DEEP
MOISTURE IN THE REGION AND DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTING MORE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT.
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE REGION WITH THE CURRENT RAIN AND CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
INTERIOR NY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT TO THE
BERKSHIRES...PERHAPS INCLUDING SOUTHERN VT. THE HRRR AND VARIOUS
VERSION OF THE WRF HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ABOUT THE COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH OF CONVECTION BUT BASED ON TRENDS...THE NORTHERN NY
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...THE RAIN SPREADING INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
DAY...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS COULD SE NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE THERE IS SOME SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...
EVOLUTION OF EXISTING AND INITIATION OF NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE
CLEARER.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES...SKY COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS. SEE SWODY1 FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PROVIDES OTHER DETAILS INTO THE PARAMETERS
THAT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE WEATHER THROUGH TODAY AND IS BELOW...
WITH PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.75-2 INCHES FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY...AND 1.5-1.75 TO THE N AND W...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE LIKELY WITHIN ANY CONVECTION. THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND/OR
BACKBUILDING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS
REGION. SHOULD THE MAIN AXIS OF ANY TRAINING CELLS SHIFT SLIGHTLY
FURTHER N AND W THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REACH THE REGION
TOWARD SUNSET...IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...AND INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MAX TRANSLATING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WARMEST IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOP THIS MORNING...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY HOLD OR RISE SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER 70S
WITHIN MUCH OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY 65-70 ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LIFT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INDIVIDUAL
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LIKELY TRANSLATING NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
SFC WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SEEPS SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY FURTHER EXACERBATE THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. FURTHER WEST...THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
W AS THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT INTO THE 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...AS LOW LEVEL COOL AIR SEEPS EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON IF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE SLOWLY EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE CHC
POPS REMAIN. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY EVEN LINGER AS FAR W AS
THE HUDSON RIVER EARLY. EVENTUALLY...THE SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT E OF
THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORM LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS SOME
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME
SHALLOW SFC BASED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80
IN VALLEYS...AND MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WED NT-THU NT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO DEVELOP FOR
WED NT...WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR JUST ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY...AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THU NT...AS
TEMPS COOL INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO START OFF DRY ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND THEN
SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60 AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF ON THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE DELMARVA REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH A COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND
CAPE COD. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY GIVING US THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN FROM LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.
CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE MAINLY MVFR WITH SOME IFR PSBL ESPCLY
WHERE AND WHEN CONVECTION OCCURS. SOME VFR IN THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO PLACE
THUNDERSTORMS AT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES AS THE MODELS ARE A BIT
DIFFERENT WITH TIMING SO HAVE USED A PROB30 TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WIND
DIRECTION AND INTENSITY WILL VARY IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH TODAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS ENDING...AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
TACONICS...AND ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA ALREADY RECEIVED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-3+
INCHES LATE SUNDAY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SE CATSKILLS...AND NW CT. AN ADDITIONAL 1.5 TO 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WATCH AREA.
MOST MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT
THIS TIME...BUT PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC BASIN MAY EXCEED
ALERT STAGE...AND COULD APPROACH FLOOD STAGE ON WED.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REGION WILL REMAIN IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH PERSISTENT PWAT/S NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
ALSO...MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WATCH AREA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES
OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE. SOME RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED ONE INCH/HOUR.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...WITH LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS MOST AT RISK.
OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST. IF THE AXIS OF MOST PERSISTENT
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS OR SHIFTS FURTHER N AND W...THEN
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER IN TIME.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK...AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS
TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
959 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 958 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2014
Large upper low located over lower Michigan this morning,
continuing to drive the cooler air southward. 850 mb temperatures
of around 5C seen on morning upper air soundings at Minneapolis
and Green Bay, and this will be dropping into northeast Illinois
later today. Have already seen quite a bit of cloud cover
spreading across the northern third of the CWA from the cold air
aloft, with scattered diurnal cumulus developing between the I-72
and I-70 corridors. Not seeing much reason for that thicker cloud
cover to break up much during the day with the upper low making
only slow northeast movement, so have updated the forecasts to
go mostly cloudy across the northern CWA, as well as tweak the
temperatures down a degree or two. HRRR model hinting at some very
isolated showers potentially occurring this afternoon as well, but
have left it out for now with the better chances more in the
northern third of the state.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 621 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2014
VFR conditions should prevail at all sites next 24hrs. The
combination of lots of moisture from all the rain yesterday and
the really cold temps at 850mb, should produce plenty of CU over
the area today, effecting all sites. Due to the colder temps, the
cig heights could start as MVFR levels around 3kft. However,
predominately, cig heights will be at 3.5kft or higher during the
day. So will have BKN CU today with a TEMPO group for a few hours
this morning of cig heights at 3kft. CU should be diurnal as well,
so should dissipate later this afternoon and into this evening.
Skies will become clear tonight. Light winds tonight and clear
skies, could be enough to allow a little bit of light fog to be
produced late tonight. So will have a TEMPO group for a few hours
with 3-5SM. Winds will be northwest through the period with speeds
of 8-14kts. Speeds will decrease this evening, but the direction
remains from the northwest.
Auten
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED 238 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2014
Unseasonably cool air is forecast for central and southeast
Illinois through mid-week. Current forecast high temperatures are
near, or below, the record cool high temperature for several
cities. Listed below are record cool highs for several cities in
central and southeast Illinois for July 15-17.
Location 7/15 7/16 7/17
---------------------------------------
Charleston 75/1990 74/1903 79/2004
Decatur 74/1990 75/1939 76/1900
Danville 71/1990 77/1981 76/1956
Effingham 65/1990 72/1898 72/1898
Galesburg 70/1989 69/1939 73/1958
Jacksonville 66/1990 73/1958 75/1958
Lincoln 73/1996 73/1993 72/2009
Normal 70/1996 75/1896 75/1900
Olney 78/1967 76/1998 76/1917
Peoria 72/1990 73/1962 68/1884
Springfield 73/1993 74/1939 71/1884
Urbana 72/1992 70/1897 73/2009
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 238 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
07z/2am surface analysis shows cold front stretching from western
Ohio to northern Arkansas. Behind the front, a much cooler and
drier air mass is filtering into central Illinois with current
temps ranging from the middle 50s northwest of the Illinois River
to the lower 60s south of I-70. Aloft...unseasonably deep low is
centered over Wisconsin. This feature is forecast to shift
eastward to Lake Huron later this afternoon, while strong cyclonic
flow continues across much of the Midwest. Thanks to 500mb temps
dropping into the -14 to -16C range, steep lapse rates will likely
yield quite a bit of diurnal cloudiness today. Visible satellite
imagery from yesterday afternoon showed SCT-BKN clouds extending
southwestward from the low across much of Iowa and 00z Cu-rule
suggests this regime will be overhead today. As a result, have
bumped up sky cover to feature partly sunny conditions. HRRR/NAM
models are both showing a few showers developing during peak
heating as a weak impulse rotates around the parent low, but these
should remain to the north across Wisconsin and northern Illinois.
Main story today will be the cool conditions, as afternoon highs
remain near record low maximum temps in the lower 70s. For more
information about the potential records, please see the climate
section of this discussion below.
Quiet weather will continue through both Wednesday and Thursday.
Upper low will gradually lift into Canada: however, troughing will
persist across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. As a result,
only a slow warm-up is anticipated as air mass modification occurs.
High temperatures will rise slightly each day, reaching the middle
to upper 70s by Thursday.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
Upper wave currently evident on water vapor imagery over western
Montana is progged to drop southeastward into the southern Plains
on Thursday, then begin tracking E/NE toward the Tennessee River
Valley by the end of the week. Models have been inconsistent with
the exact track of this system and whether or not it will impact
parts of the KILX CWA. Previous run of the GFS had been very
aggressive in bringing precip from the wave northward into central
Illinois Thursday night into Friday: however, the 00z Jul 15 run
has backed off and now keeps most of the precip south of the area.
Meanwhile, both the ECMWF and GEM suggest that some precip may
sneak into the far SE CWA Friday night into Saturday. Given
surface ridge axis and dry air mass in place across the region,
will continue to go with a dry forecast until model solutions come
to a better consensus otherwise. After that, upper heights will
continue to rise over the upcoming weekend as ridge tries to build
across the central CONUS. End result will be a return to warmer
and more humid conditions early next week, with highs climbing
back into the middle to upper 80s by Monday.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
902 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
THE ONLY THING TO REAL FORECAST ITEM TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING IS THE
REMARKABLY DEEP/UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW DIGGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.
WATER VAPOR AND EVENING UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND COLD (FOR JULY) UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION. SURFACE LOW AND INITIAL COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED EAST/SOUTH OF
THE CWA BUT SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME INSOLATION THIS MORNING
SHOULD RESULT IN RAPIDLY STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE AND LIKELY
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING
AND LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA. GIVEN THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN THE REGION...AND WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 8000FT AGL
CAN`T EVEN RULE OUT A TOUCH OF GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IF ANY MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS FORM. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE SECONDARY FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SUBSEQUENTLY IS
ONE OF THE ONLY MODELS SHOWING A LAKE BREEZE MOVING JUST INLAND
INTO NE IL...WHICH COULD CERTAINLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID- UPPER 60S TODAY
DESPITE SOME MIXED SUNSHINE...PROBABLY FALLING SHY OF RECORD COLD
HIGH TEMPS BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR NON-URBANIZED AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 40S TONIGHT
FOR LOWS...WITH SOME TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING WELL
INTO THE 40S.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GO THROUGH A DEAMPLIFICATION AND
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.CLIMATE...
347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 52 IN 1967 49 IN 1945
ROCKFORD 45 IN 1930 46 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 IN 1903 62 IN 1912
ROCKFORD 64 IN 1962 68 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
* GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY.
* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE/NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
* SCATTERED SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW CLOUDS WRAPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN
IL EARLY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION WEST OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
PATCHY LOW LAYERS FROM 1500-2500 FT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
MVFR CEILING INTO TERMINALS SHORTLY...THOUGH BASES SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LIFT INTO VFR RANGE BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH
FROM GRB TOWARD MKE OVERNIGHT ARE BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE EAST
WITH MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND RADAR TRENDS APPEAR TO SUPPORT
THIS. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL THIS
MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION
AT THIS TIME. DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GREATER COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH FOR THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ADVANCING SLOWLY FROM THE PLAINS TODAY...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE NEARLY ALL MODELS
MAINTAIN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AT LEAST ON SET OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THE GRADIENT WEAKENING
ENOUGH ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO PRODUCE A LAKE BREEZE
WITH A NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT. GYY AND MDW WOULD BE MOST DIRECTLY
IMPACTED IN THIS SCENARIO...THOUGH WITH FAIRLY DECENT NORTHWEST
GRADIENT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN LAKE BREEZE AFFECTING
ORD/MDW.
LIGHTER WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES. WINDS WILL LIKELY TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST
WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...MEDIUM FOR END TIME.
* HIGH FOR WINDS...LOW FOR LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL/TIMING.
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LAKE BREEZES POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
224 AM CDT
MAIN MARINE FOCUS IS WITH GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE
ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS. WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE
LIKELY AS UNSEASONABLY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFICIENT MIXING OF MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE-INDUCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE.
THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE LAKES ALLOWING MODEST SOUTH FLOW TO RETURN.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
639 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
THE ONLY THING TO REAL FORECAST ITEM TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING IS THE
REMARKABLY DEEP/UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW DIGGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.
WATER VAPOR AND EVENING UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND COLD (FOR JULY) UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION. SURFACE LOW AND INITIAL COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED EAST/SOUTH OF
THE CWA BUT SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME INSOLATION THIS MORNING
SHOULD RESULT IN RAPIDLY STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE AND LIKELY
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING
AND LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA. GIVEN THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN THE REGION...AND WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 8000FT AGL
CAN`T EVEN RULE OUT A TOUCH OF GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IF ANY MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS FORM. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE SECONDARY FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SUBSEQUENTLY IS
ONE OF THE ONLY MODELS SHOWING A LAKE BREEZE MOVING JUST INLAND
INTO NE IL...WHICH COULD CERTAINLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID- UPPER 60S TODAY
DESPITE SOME MIXED SUNSHINE...PROBABLY FALLING SHY OF RECORD COLD
HIGH TEMPS BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR NON-URBANIZED AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 40S TONIGHT
FOR LOWS...WITH SOME TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING WELL
INTO THE 40S.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GO THROUGH A DEAMPLIFICATION AND
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.CLIMATE...
347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 52 IN 1967 49 IN 1945
ROCKFORD 45 IN 1930 46 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 IN 1903 62 IN 1912
ROCKFORD 64 IN 1962 68 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
* SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE TO SHIFT WINDS NORTHEAST...MAINLY
AT MDW.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW CLOUDS WRAPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN
IL EARLY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION WEST OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
PATCHY LOW LAYERS FROM 1500-2500 FT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
MVFR CEILING INTO TERMINALS SHORTLY...THOUGH BASES SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LIFT INTO VFR RANGE BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH
FROM GRB TOWARD MKE OVERNIGHT ARE BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE EAST
WITH MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND RADAR TRENDS APPEAR TO SUPPORT
THIS. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL THIS
MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION
AT THIS TIME. DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GREATER COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH FOR THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ADVANCING SLOWLY FROM THE PLAINS TODAY...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE NEARLY ALL MODELS
MAINTAIN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AT LEAST ON SET OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THE GRADIENT WEAKENING
ENOUGH ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO PRODUCE A LAKE BREEZE
WITH A NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT. GYY AND MDW WOULD BE MOST DIRECTLY
IMPACTED IN THIS SCENARIO...THOUGH WITH FAIRLY DECENT NORTHWEST
GRADIENT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN LAKE BREEZE AFFECTING
ORD/MDW.
LIGHTER WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES. WINDS WILL LIKELY TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST
WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHRA THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE AFFECTING TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LAKE BREEZES POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
224 AM CDT
MAIN MARINE FOCUS IS WITH GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE
ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS. WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE
LIKELY AS UNSEASONABLY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFICIENT MIXING OF MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE-INDUCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE.
THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE LAKES ALLOWING MODEST SOUTH FLOW TO RETURN.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
724 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE POP/WX GRIDS TO BETTER DELINEATE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM BENKELMAN TO OAKLEY APPEARS RELATED TO RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 300 MB JET AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
600-700 MB LAYER. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS
IN THE 0-9 HOUR TIME FRAME...NOT ONLY FOR THE BENKELMAN TO OAKLEY
BAND BUT ALSO THE NEWLY DEVELOPING AREA OF SHOWERS OVER KIT CARSON
AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES. FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE NAM-
GFS-ECMWF WERE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT RW/TRW WILL DEVELOP
IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME WITH THE SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH PRECIP CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.
ADJUSTED POP/WX GRID TIMING ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN EXIT
NORTHWEST KANSAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER COLORADO WEDNESDAY.
FOR THIS MORNING, CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST
FA. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THESE STORMS WILL TRAVERSE OVER THIS AREA
UNTIL AROUND 18Z. PLAN TO USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENT.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, PLAN TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF
THUNDERTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM INDICATED FROM 400 TO 1000
J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN EASTERN COLORADO. SHEAR
VALUES ARE FROM 50 TO 55KTS. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY, DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO IMPACT THE
FA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND OVERSPREAD THE FA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM THIS TROUGH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY DYNAMICS START TO WANE
ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL SUPPORT
MORE THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWERS. PLAN TO CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING TO CHANCE
THURSDAY MORNING AND SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
WILL MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL BE NIL
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH READINGS IN THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
INITIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
CONVECTION IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE LATE SATURDAY IN A RELATIVELY
SHORT WINDOW WHEN WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES COMMENCE BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS.
ONE OR MORE DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE PERTURBATIONS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
COULD PROVIDE WEAK FORCING TO AID IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS LACKING CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
BUILDING UPPER HIGH...MAINLY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS PERSISTENTLY SHARPER WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH
THAN ECMWF WITH DIFFERENCES IN ITS POSITION AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN EITHER CASE THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND BELOW CLIMO POPS FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
APPROACH OR EXCEED 597 DM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
AN ISOLATED MORNING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY MOVE NEAR THE VICINITY OF KGLD
AND KMCK. THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHEN A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AND ISOLATED THUNDERTORM. THE FORECAST SOUNDING AT KGLD
INDICATES POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DLF
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
527 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN EXIT
NORTHWEST KANSAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER COLORADO WEDNESDAY.
FOR THIS MORNING, CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST
FA. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THESE STORMS WILL TRAVERSE OVER THIS AREA
UNTIL AROUND 18Z. PLAN TO USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENT.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, PLAN TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF
THUNDERTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM INDICATED FROM 400 TO 1000
J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN EASTERN COLORADO. SHEAR
VALUES ARE FROM 50 TO 55KTS. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY, DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO IMPACT THE
FA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND OVERSPREAD THE FA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM THIS TROUGH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY DYNAMICS START TO WANE
ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL SUPPORT
MORE THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWERS. PLAN TO CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING TO CHANCE
THURSDAY MORNING AND SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
WILL MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL BE NIL
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH READINGS IN THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
INITIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
CONVECTION IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE LATE SATURDAY IN A RELATIVELY
SHORT WINDOW WHEN WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES COMMENCE BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS.
ONE OR MORE DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE PERTURBATIONS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
COULD PROVIDE WEAK FORCING TO AID IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS LACKING CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
BUILDING UPPER HIGH...MAINLY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS PERSISTENTLY SHARPER WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH
THAN ECMWF WITH DIFFERENCES IN ITS POSITION AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN EITHER CASE THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND BELOW CLIMO POPS FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
APPROACH OR EXCEED 597 DM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
AN ISOLATED MORNING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY MOVE NEAR THE VICINITY OF KGLD
AND KMCK. THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHEN A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AND ISOLATED THUNDERTORM. THE FORECAST SOUNDING AT KGLD
INDICATES POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1010 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE WEST
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1005MB LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
BACK THROUGH THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AND HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OVERALL THIS PLACES THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER SW FLOW.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE RIDGE BUILDS
OFF THE COAST. A STRONG ANTICYCLONIC UPPER JET WILL ENHANCE OVER THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITHIN THE
FAVORABLE ASCENT REGION WITHIN THE RRQ. THE BEST FORCING SHOULD
ARRIVE WITHIN THE 18-00Z WINDOW...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY TRIGGERING
IN VICINITY OF A LEE-SIDE/PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...WITH
15/03Z SREF INDICATING A 60-70% PROB OF CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
2000J/KG ACROSS THE BULK OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND THE 15/00Z GFS/NAM
INDICATING LI VALUES AVERAGING AROUND -5. THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER
FLOW GENERALLY REMAINS N OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT ENCROACHES ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE 20-30KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
WHEN COMBINED WITH LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RA IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GRIDDED FFG VALUES ARE TOO HIGH WHEN
COMPARED TO QPF FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT...AND HENCE
NO FFA IS NECESSARY. IN LOOKING AT THE MOST RECENT RUC AND THE
HRRR COULD SEE SOME EARLIER DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE COAST SO
INCREASED POPS SOME EARLIER ALONG THE COAST.
THE DAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA...AND GIVEN THIS
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS
RESULTS IN FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 OVER
THE PIEDMONT...TO THE LOW/MID 90S ALONG AND E OF I-95. AGAIN...DUE
TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS THE RIC METRO AREA SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR INTO
THE 90S BY MIDDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES BECOME LIMITED DUE TO
DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER/RA. HEAT INDICES
WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 100-104 ACROSS SE PORTIONS MIDDAY THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE. THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) WILL SHIFT
TOWARD THE COAST. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL WANE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER PREVAILING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S W...TO LOW 70S E.
POPS WILL DECREASE FROMM WNW TO ESE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER/NOT AS WARM AIRMASS EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FM THE W/NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
INCREASING SUNSHINE FM W TO E IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 80-85.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU
THURSDAY RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKY. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FM THE MID/UPPER 50S FAR NW...TO THE UPPER
60S FAR SE. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT ORIENTED
OFFSHORE, AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ADD UP TO A DRY, PLEASANT DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, THIS PERIOD OF BENIGN
WX WL BE SHORT LIVED. A MAJORITY OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH (IN PLACE ACROSS THE PAC NW THIS AFTN) WHICH WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MIDWEEK, AND WILL BE OVER THE MID-SOUTH
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO GET PULLED BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. WL LIKELY SEE RAIN CHANCES
SLOWLY KICK BACK UP INCREMENTALLY LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE WAVY FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. STILL SOME TEMPORAL/SPATIAL DIFFERENCES TO IRON OUT, AS
IS TYPICAL THIS FAR OUT, SO TRIED TO KEEP IT SOMEWHAT GENERAL FOR
NOW. LOW (SLIGHT CHC) POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
INITIAL WAVE PUSHES ACROSS...WITH HIGHER, MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH END
CHC (40%) POP SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS.
TAILED POPS OFF SOME INLAND ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHEST POP/BEST CHC
ACROSS THE SE WITH SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY PUSHING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND OFFSHORE OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT MAXIMA TO AVERAGE AROUND -1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND FRI-SUN, WITH
SOME WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH
RETURN FLOW AND A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SETUP LOOKING TO TAKE
HOLD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL SETTLE INTO
THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN STRATUS IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SBY WENT IFR AND MAY HAVE TEMPO CONDITIONS TIL 14Z. IF IT APPEARS
THAT IFR WILL END PRIOR TO 12Z...TAF MAY BE CORRECTED PRIOR TO 12Z.
BKN MVFR AT ECG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE MORNING BASED
ON UPSTREAM OBS IN ERN NORTH CAROLINA.
CONVECTION LIKELY LATE AFTN/EVENING BUT NO MENTION IN TAFS SINCE
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. FRONT PASSES THROUGH 06Z OR AFTER SHIFTING
WINDS TO NW/N. CHC LIGHT RAIN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ESPECIALLY ERN
PORTIONS.
EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
POINT...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTN
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR TSTMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINED BELOW SCA CRITERIA MONDAY EVENING
AND EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WIND SENSORS IN THE MARINE AREA WERE
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR HIGHER. WAVES AND SEAS WERE UNIMPRESSIVE
INDICATING THAT THE STRONGER WINDS WERE NOT COMPLETELY MIXING TO THE
SURFACE OF THE WATER. WAVES IN THE BAY WERE MAINLY AROUND A
FOOT...PROBABLY UP TO 2 FEET IN THE CHANNELS. SEAS SUBSIDED TO
AROUND 2 TO 3 FT.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS
FROM THE S/SW UNTIL ITS PASSAGE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST DURING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY INCREASE TO AROUND
15 KNOTS TOWARD 12-15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF SCA EPISODE OVER THE BAY
WITH WATER TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE BAY CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES BUT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE.
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY) AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTION OF THE
20NM ZONES BUT HELD IT TO 4 FT OR LESS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/TMG
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
735 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY ACROSS
THE REGION AS A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD TODAY.
THIS MORNING...THE SOMEWHAT RAGGED MID/UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED NEAR GRB. MEANWHILE...AN ACTIVE REGION OF 500 HPA
FGEN/DEFORMATION AS ANALYZED BY RAP ANALYSIS IS FORCING MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE NW CWA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A SURGE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AND IS
BRINGING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE
MID/UPPER LOW SLOWLY DEPARTING EASTWARD...PROGRESSION OF THIS PRECIP
WILL BE QUITE SLOW. HOWEVER...WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING NOTED
UPSTREAM...EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS UNDER
THE DEFORMATION BAND AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING. ALSO...A WEAK IMPULSE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AS
NOTED IN WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BRING A BATCH OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE FAR EAST CWA THROUGH MID MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP COVERAGE BECOMES MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN BY THIS TIME AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS PULLING MOST PRECIP OUT OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT AM QUITE HESITANT TO FOLLOW THIS TREND.
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYING ACROSS THE WEST ON TOP OF REMAINING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING COULD INDUCE ISOLATED
LOW-LEVEL SHOWER ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE NORTH WIND STABILIZATION OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL EARLY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CWA.
MADE ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY. OVERALL...THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
MID-JULY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST WHERE SOME CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE LOW 60S WHILE NORTHERLY
WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEP NORTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE 50S. PLACES
ACROSS THE EAST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY EVEN FAIL TO REACH 50 GIVEN
THE LONG FETCH OVER WATERS STILL IN THE UPPER 30S.
TONIGHT...SEVERAL CHALLENGES ARE PRESENT IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
MAIN ONE BEING POTENTIAL FROST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. AM
BEGINNING TO HAVE DECENT CONCERNS THAT LOW-CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE WEST HALF BEFORE LATE
TONIGHT. THE EAST HALF LOOKS TO REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH LOW-CLOUDS AND
STEADY NNW GRADIENT FLOW. THE 00Z NAM WAS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN
REMOVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING...BUT HAS BACKED OFF AND
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GEM AS OF THE 06Z RUN. HAVE
FOLLOWED THIS IDEA AND DELAYED THE DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. WITH THAT SAID...THE WESTERN THIRD OF UPPER MI HAS
THE BEST CHANCE TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST 6 HOURS OF DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.
THROUGH...PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 0.6 INCH ARE NOT OVERALL IMPRESSIVE
FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. WITH GUIDANCE THAT NORMALLY PERFORMS WELL FOR
PRIME COOLING NIGHTS ADVERTISING TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
WEST...HAD A HARD TIME GOING WELL BELOW GUIDANCE. KEPT THE GOING
FORECAST OF UPPER 30S FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS...BUT INCREASED
LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE CENTRAL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME PATCHY FROST FOR THOSE COLD SPOTS...SO CONTINUED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NAM TAKES THE 500 MB TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE AREA 12Z WED
AND HEADS IT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. GFS DOES THE
SAME THING. BASICALLY...LOOKS QUIET AND DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI. GFS AND THE
ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z
SAT. THE GFS THEN BECOMES MUCH FASTER TAKING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EAST 12Z SUN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
TROUGH NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUE
12Z MON WITH THE GFS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS A MORE ZONAL LOOK TO IT WITH THE 500 MB PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND THIS PERIOD WITH IT REMAINING DRY
THROUGH SAT. IT WILL ALSO GET INCREASINGLY HUMID WITH DEW POINTS
INCREASING THIS WEEKEND. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A FRONT NEARS THE AREA AND THE AIRMASS GETS
UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
APPROACHING NEAR NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
A BAND OF SHRA WITH NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MI THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL BRING LIFR VIS AND CIGS TO KSAW THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
BEFORE THE SHRA BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRYING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THE
-SHRA ALREADY FINISHED AT KCMX AND KIWD...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NNW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
LAKE HURON SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. PATCHY FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE WITH ANY
SHOWERS...WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AFTER THE RIDGE CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO UP TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
950 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
THE QUIET...DRY AND COOL FORECAST FOR TODAY IS SUPPORTED BY THE
06 UTC SUITE AND 12-13 UTC RAP ITERATIONS WITH NO CHANGES
REQUIRED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATION FROM
RUGBY HAD THEM AT AROUND 1/2 MILE. OTHER THAN ALSO ADJUSTING
CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR CURRENT TRENDS...REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS RESULTS IN
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME OBSERVATION
SITES HAVE COME IN WITH SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES...BUT
GENERALLY P6SM MOST LOCATIONS. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FOG
MENTION.
A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW WELL TO OUR EAST AND WITH SOME WEAK MID
LEVEL RETURN FLOW. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 70S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
ALL GUIDANCE INDICATING CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
MID TO LATE MORNING SO WENT WITH HIGHER SKY COVER FOR THESE
LOCATIONS...PARTLY SUNNY. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WEST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
WEST WITH DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...REGION WILL BE BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING
QUIET WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RIDGE TO THE WEST STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT
LEADING TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM AT THIS
POINT IS THAT MODELS ARE LIFTING SOME KEY FEATURES A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH WOULD LEAN TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST. HAVE STARTED THE TREND TOWARDS LOWER POPS...AND WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THIS CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE VFR
SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPMENT CENTRAL AND EAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR WEST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1149 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY USHERING IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP/REGIONAL 88D DATA AT 1530Z SHOWS
WIDESPREAD LAYERED CLOUDS BLANKETING ALL OF THE REGION WITHIN THE
WEAK LOW-MID LVL WARM ADVECTION AND SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM KELZ TO KDUJ AND KLBE.
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY INCREASING VIA THE LIMITED
HEATING THROUGH THE CLOUDS...BUT REMAINS QUITE WEAK AT THIS
POINT ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT TO MDT SHRA DRIFTING TO THE NE. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS
WERE DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG THE CFRONT ATTM.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND TWD THE SUSQ
VALLEY DURING THE EARLY TO MD AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC BASED CAPES
VIA THE 09Z SREF ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
INVOF KMDT...KLNS AND KTHV.
A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR BRKS OF SUN EXIST ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES... WHERE SPC HAS PLACED A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX THIS
AFTN. STRONG MID LVL WINDS AND ASSOC 0-6KM SHEAR COULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STRONG STORMS GIVEN ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING. HIGH
PWATS...COMBINED WITH MODERATE CAPE...IMPLY THE POTENTIAL OF
LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS SE PA. CONVECTION-ALLOWING HIRES MDLS
SHOW THIS POTENTIAL...WITH LOCALLY 2-3 INCH AMTS INDICATED FROM
LANCASTER CO SEWRD.
GIVEN OUR CURRENT FFG VALUES...THE SLOW/STEADY EWD PROGRESS OF
TSRA LINE SEGMENTS ON THE HIGH RES MODELS...AND THE ANTICIPATED
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL TSRA...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR LIKELY THAT FCST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRESENT A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN MTNS THIS AFTN.
HIGHS TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
ALLEGHENIES. FURTHER EAST...A LATER ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT AND
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY PUSH READINGS INTO THE L/M 80S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER 06Z TO CLEAR THE SE
COUNTIES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WELL INTO THE
NIGHT DOWN THERE. ELSEWHERE...ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD
FRONT SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
ALLEGHENIES DURING THE EVENING.
UPPER LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...TRAILING UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE EASTERN GRT LKS. ASSOC POOL OF COOL AIR ALOFT...COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AMT OF CU ACROSS THE NW
MTNS WED...WITH A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE IS INDICATED BY MDL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. LARGEST NEGATIVE 925/850 TEMPS ANOMALIES IN GEFS DATA
ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE
M/U60S EXPECTED. READINGS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL
ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MASS FIELDS LOOK VERY SIMILAR AMONG ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...ALL OF WHICH SHOW A LINGERING UPPER LVL TROF
JUST WEST OF PA OVR THE GRT LKS. SFC ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOC NEG
PWAT ANOMALIES SHOULD INITIALLY PROVIDE CENTRAL PA WITH A PERIOD
OF FAIR WX THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS HIGH DRIFTS
OFF THE COAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE CHC OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. BASED ON LATEST
CONSALL GUIDANCE...HAVE INTRODUCED THE CHC OF AFTN SHRA/TSRA
FRIDAY AFTN.
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST LOOKS UNSETTLED...AS CENTRAL PA WILL
REMAIN ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER TROF WITH DAILY OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS/TSRA. AFTER A COOL MIDWEEK...MEAN TEMPS SHOULD CREEP BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DUE TO WARMER NIGHTS. A
FAIR AMT OF CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGHS BLW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA /AND A
FEW LOW TOPPED TSRA/ DRIFTING NE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT /THAT
EXTENDS FROM SWRN NEW YORK TO SWRN PENN.
AREAS OF MVFR IN STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG/HAZE WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AT MOST TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF IPT-KUNV-KAOO LINE...LEADING TO SCATTERED TSTM
IMPACTS /ESPECIALLY INVOF KMDT AND KLNS WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 18Z-23Z PERIOD/.
OUTLOOK...
WED- FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSS AFTERNOON TSRA WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
954 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY USHERING IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP/REGIONAL 88D DATA SHOWS WIDESPREAD LAYERED
CLOUDS IN THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN PENN.
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL AT THIS POINT ACROSS CENTRAL
PENN AND THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MDT SHRA
DRIFTING TO THE NE.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE CFRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND TWD THE SUSQ
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SFC BASED CAPES VIA THE 09Z
SREF ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG INVOF
KMDT...KLNS AND KTHV.
A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR BRKS OF SUN ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...
WHERE SPC HAS PLACED A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX THIS AFTN. STRONG
MID LVL WINDS AND ASSOC 0-6KM SHEAR COULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONG
STORMS GIVEN ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING. HIGH PWATS...COMBINED WITH
MODERATE CAPE...IMPLY THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS
ACROSS SE PA. CONVECTION-ALLOWING HIRES MDLS SHOW THIS
POTENTIAL...WITH LOCALLY 2-3 INCH AMTS INDICATED FROM LANCASTER CO
SEWRD.
GIVEN OUR CURRENT FFG VALUES...THE SLOW/STEADY EWD PROGRESS OF
TSRA LINE SEGMENTS ON THE HIGH RES MODELS...AND THE ANTICIPATED
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL TSRA...DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR SHOULD BRING A
DIMINISHING CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS THIS AFTN.
HIGHS TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
ALLEGHENIES. FURTHER EAST...A LATER ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT AND
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY PUSH READINGS INTO THE L/M 80S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER 06Z TO CLEAR THE SE
COUNTIES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WELL INTO THE
NIGHT DOWN THERE. ELSEWHERE...ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD
FRONT SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
ALLEGHENIES DURING THE EVENING.
UPPER LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...TRAILING UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE EASTERN GRT LKS. ASSOC POOL OF COOL AIR ALOFT...COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AMT OF CU ACROSS THE NW
MTNS WED...WITH A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE IS INDICATED BY MDL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. LARGEST NEGATIVE 925/850 TEMPS ANOMALIES IN GEFS DATA
ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE
M/U60S EXPECTED. READINGS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL
ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MASS FIELDS LOOK VERY SIMILAR AMONG ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...ALL OF WHICH SHOW A LINGERING UPPER LVL TROF
JUST WEST OF PA OVR THE GRT LKS. SFC ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOC NEG
PWAT ANOMALIES SHOULD INITIALLY PROVIDE CENTRAL PA WITH A PERIOD
OF FAIR WX THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS HIGH DRIFTS
OFF THE COAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE CHC OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. BASED ON LATEST
CONSALL GUIDANCE...HAVE INTRODUCED THE CHC OF AFTN SHRA/TSRA
FRIDAY AFTN.
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST LOOKS UNSETTLED...AS CENTRAL PA WILL
REMAIN ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER TROF WITH DAILY OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS/TSRA. AFTER A COOL MIDWEEK...MEAN TEMPS SHOULD CREEP BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DUE TO WARMER NIGHTS. A
FAIR AMT OF CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGHS BLW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA /AND A
FEW LOW TOPPED TSRA/ DRIFTING NE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR THE
I-79 CORRIDOR IN FAR WRN PENN.
AREAS OF IFR/MVFR IN FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR MOST
TAF SITES LATE MORNING...THOUGH ONE OR TWO MAY HANG ONTO HAZE TIL
EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF IPT-KUNV-KAOO LINE...LEADING TO SCATTERED TSTM
IMPACTS /ESPECIALLY INVOF KMDT AND KLNS WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 17Z-23Z PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WED- FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSS AFTERNOON TSRA WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
706 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT THAT BEGAN TO SLIDE INTO OUR AREA LATE YESTERDAY
HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE DFW METRO TAF SITES AS OF 12Z THIS
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AT KACT AS WELL DUE TO A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH...BUT FROPA SHOULD OCCUR THERE WITHIN A FEW HOURS.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 10
AND 15 KTS TODAY BUT SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TOWARDS THE EAST AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 8 KTS BY MID MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR KACT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY. BY 15Z...ALL AREA TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
QUIET WEATHER. WHILE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONVECTION
PERIODICALLY THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD...CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIES JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014/
THE LONG-AWAITED COLD FRONT WAS MOVING TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURING FROM OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES INTO
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD BE SEEN UPSTREAM
WITH READINGS IN THE 50S AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
THE COLD FRONT SLOWS DOWN LATER THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HRRR AND TECH WRF INDICATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT 20-40 POPS
SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE-PALESTINE LINE. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH STRONGER COLD ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE LOW RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE A LULL IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE. LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 65-70 DEGREES WITHIN THE
DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 70-75 DEGREES ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH LIGHT ENE WINDS 5-10 MPH. SHOULD BE A NICE EVENING FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR TRANSITION DAY AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF
OUR NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO WILL HELP SURGE THE FIRST FRONT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER-
MID 90S OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO
THE WARM ADVECTION. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE
DAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WILL CARRY
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE RESULTANT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY THOSE AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. AN MCS IS HIGHLY PROBABLE WITH SOME THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
ENTER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ADDING A LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO
THE EQUATION. WE ARE MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. WE HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY
MCS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WITH STORMS CONTINUING DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF BOTH THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT. THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUING HIGH
CHANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE 5
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW MID JULY NORMALS WITH HIGHS 75-85 DEGREES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD DUE TO
THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES OR LOCALLY HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST YOU
GO. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT APPEARS DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH A LOWER THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALOFT NEAR 6 DEG/C.
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH DAMPENS THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH A
WEAKER TROUGH SETTLED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER WEST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN
WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF A WEAKNESS SETTING UP OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR ISOLATED
RAIN CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES TO ADD RAIN CHANCES IN AT THIS TIME. WHAT WE ARE
CERTAIN OF IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 90S BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 70 90 73 84 / 20 5 30 70 70
WACO, TX 93 71 94 75 90 / 20 20 20 50 50
PARIS, TX 86 65 86 67 79 / 10 10 20 70 80
DENTON, TX 90 69 89 72 83 / 10 10 30 70 70
MCKINNEY, TX 89 69 89 72 82 / 10 5 30 70 70
DALLAS, TX 90 70 90 73 84 / 20 5 30 70 70
TERRELL, TX 89 68 89 71 84 / 20 5 20 70 70
CORSICANA, TX 90 70 90 73 87 / 20 10 20 60 60
TEMPLE, TX 94 73 94 75 92 / 30 20 20 40 40
MINERAL WELLS, TX 90 68 90 72 86 / 20 10 30 70 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
641 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
A WELL DEFINED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
SHRA/TSRA. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE TROUGH
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. THE RAP 13 HAS INITIALIZED BEST AND HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE RAP SOLUTION FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE. THE CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES WILL WEAKEN NORTH OF THE HOUSTON TERMINALS
BY NOON. DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN ALLOW THE SEABEEZE TO INCREASE
SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST AROUND 18Z...MOVING SLOWLY
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTN. PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2.00
INCHES THIS AFTN WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 88 DEGREES. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TIMING TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MIGHT
GET A LITTLE PATCHY FOG AT KCXO AROUND SUNRISE. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING
WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS PRE FRONTAL TROUGH THERE IS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENTERING HOUSTON COUNTY SHORTLY.
PWAT VALUES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1.8" AND ARE FORECASTED TO RISE
ABOVE 2.00" TODAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE RAIN IS LIMITED IN
OUR AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER MISSOURI. THERE
WILL BE SOME SMALL POCKETS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY MOVING OVERHEAD
BUT THIS WILL ALSO BE SPOTTY. CURRENTLY AT 250MB THERE IS UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THANKS TO THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
FROM YESTERDAY. MODELS FOR THE MOST PART WASH THIS FEATURE OUT
TODAY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. FIRST SOLUTION IS THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION NOW MOVING
INTO HOUSTON COUNTY CONTINUING TO FILL IN AND EVENTUALLY FIZZLING
OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE SECOND SOLUTIONS FIZZLES THE
RAIN OUT EARLIER ALLOWING A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS SOLUTION TWO AND SEEMED TO INITIALIZE WELL.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE FAVORED SOLUTION TWO.
ON WEDNESDAY MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS AS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
FALLS IN THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MOISTURE VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 1.8" THOUGH SO THINK SOME RAIN WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY (VIA DAYTIME HEATING). THURSDAY MORNING A
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARDS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN. PWATS AGAIN
APPROACH 2.0" AND WITH UPPER LEVEL LIFT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES WITH HEIGHTS AT
600DM BY TUESDAY. THIS MEANS HOT CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
23
MARINE...
A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR KSHV TO KDRT WILL SAG SLOWLY
SOUTH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA LATER
TODAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH
SOUTH AND STALL OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULTANT GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK AND WINDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME VARIABLE AND THE DIRECTION/SPEEDS INDUCED BY CONVECTION. A
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS ON
WED NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY. STRONGER
WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED NITE AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH
AN SCA OR CAUTION FLAGS PROBABLY NEEDED. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
WEST TEXAS EXITS THE REGION. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 92 74 95 76 94 / 40 20 20 20 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 75 94 76 93 / 40 20 30 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 81 91 81 91 / 40 20 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
342 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR DISTRICT...AND BROUGHT A FEW SPRINKLES
AND LIGHT SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY. SOME DRYING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THUS A REDUCTION IN THE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AND AN END TO ANY PRECIP CHANCES. THE MARINE
LAYER AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER ALONG
WITH A MODEST COOLING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:25 PM PDT TUESDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS EARLIER TODAY ALONG
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS. IT HAS NOW PROGRESSED OUT
TO THE NORTHWEST...THOUGH CURRENT KMUX REFLECTIVITY DATA STILL SHOW
A FEW (ALBEIT ELEVATED) RETURNS NEAR THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF OUR
AREA AND WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LARGEST ASSOCIATED
PRECIP TOTAL THUS FAR NOTED WAS 0.02" AT THE BIG SUR RAWS SITE.
MID-AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND THE BAYS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
70S...AND IN THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS. IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY...IT`S AN INTERESTING MIX OF WARMING AND COOLING...RESULTING
FROM A COMBINATION OF DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...A SWITCH IN
THE COASTAL SURFACE WINDS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY...AND
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE SHIFTING NORTHWARD. AS OF 2 PM...SANTA
ROSA WAS RUNNING 13 DEGS COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND LIVERMORE
DOWN 11 DEGS...WHILE MONTEREY IS 14 DEGS WARMER AND PINNACLES NATL
PARK 13 DEGS WARMER. ALSO OF SOME NOTE ARE THE ELEVATED DEW
POINTS. 2 PM TD OBS FROM BOTH KSFO AND KPAO ARE 64 DEGS...A BIT ON
THE MUGGY SIDE BY BAY AREA STANDARDS. MARINE STRATUS HAS HUNG IN
ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM
AROUND PIGEON PT SOUTHWARD.
IN THE SHORTER TERM...MODELS ARE WIDELY DIVERGENT ON THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOONAL FLOW...WHICH IS NOW BRINGING SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA AND WITH SOME ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALREADY STARTING TO SPILL WESTWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL VALLEY. NAM AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT ARE CONSISTENT WITH
NON-NEGLIGIBLE CHANCE OF PRECIP CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF
OUTPUT INDICATE IT STAYING WELL TO OUR EAST AND NORTH. HAVE GONE
WITH A COMPROMISE FORECAST...LOW POP VALUES BUT INCLUDING MENTION
OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF OUR AREA. EVEN IN THE NAM AND HRRR SOLUTIONS...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES APPEAR TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE...BUT WILL NOTE THAT CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...MARINE STRATUS WILL EXTEND BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
IS IN FACT ALREADY BEGINNING TO EXTEND DOWN THE SALINAS VALLEY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGS
COOLER THAN THOSE TODAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...YET AGAIN HAVE NAM (AND HERE PRETTY MUCH THE NAM ALONE)
SHOWING ANOTHER POSSIBLE PULSE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS
FROM THE SIERRA...BUT WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE. SO AT THIS POINT
NOT THINKING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE
MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH
SOME DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SO ANOTHER SEVERAL DEGS OF
COOLING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS.
IN THE EXTENDED...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ASIDE FROM THE COASTAL STRATUS...AND COOLER
THAN SEASONAL NORM TEMPS INLAND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AND THEN IT LOOKS LIKE A WARMING TREND FOR NEXT WEEK AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS WESTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA WITH WARMING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. IN THIS REGARD WILL NOTE
THAT LATEST ECMWF RUN ACTUALLY TAKES THE HEIGHT AT ITS CENTER ALL
THE WAY UP TO 601 DM BY 18Z NEXT TUES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT TUESDAY...TRICKY FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS. THERE
WERE EVEN A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING BY AS WELL. IN
THE NEAR TERM...THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE KSFO AND THE APPROACH.
A CIG NEAR 2K FEET DEVELOPED OVER KSFO BAY AND WILL LINGER FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS. WILL ALLOW FOR RETURNING CIGS TONIGHT. CONF IS MEDIUM.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS NEAR 2K FEET HAVE MOVED OVER KSFO.
CAMS SHOW SOLID LAYER WITH A FEW POCKETS OF BLUE. THEREFORE...WILL
KEEP CIGS THROUGH 19Z FOR KSFO. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY. FOR
TONIGHT...WILL BRING A LOW CIG BACK INTO SFO...BUT RELATIVELY LATE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...THE BRIDGE IS REPORTING CLR...BUT MOST
LIKELY HIGH CLOUDS. A FEW LOW CIGS FROM KSFO MAY OCCASIONALLY
PASS OVER THE BRIDGE.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH EARLY RETURN OF CIGS TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:37 AM PDT TUESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL PASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION/MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
245 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES OVER THE REGION AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE CREST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA...POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILL AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO DOUBLE DIGITS OVER THE
REGION BY TOMORROW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN KERN COUNTY
DESERT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAM INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST SHOW AS MUCH AS 1.75 INCHES OF PRECIP-WATER AT
12 UTC (5 AM PDT). CLIMO VALUES FROM UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS SHOW
THESE VALUES REACHING NEAR THE MAX PRECIP-WATER VALUES FOR MID-
JULY. THEREFORE...THE CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AFFECTED AREAS IS MINIMAL TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SIERRA NEVADA IN AREAS WHERE MESO-SCALE MODELS PLACED IT THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOWING THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE HRRR MODEL AND EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD CLOSER TO YOSEMITE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT
RANGE ENSEMBLE (EVEN STORM SCALE ENSEMBLES) SUPPORT THE TREND OF
SLOWLY SHIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE
BURN AREA OF THE RIM FIRE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS THIS AFTERNOON. CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW
VERY SLOW MOTION WITH THIS AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION WHICH INCREASES
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AROUND THE YOSEMITE AREA.
WHILE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT THE ONGOING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE HRRR 1KM-AGL
REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT ONLY GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE
MODEL DOES NOT TERMINATE CONVECTION THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND
POSSIBILITY CONTINUES IT INTO THE EARLY DAWN HOURS. IN ADDITION...
ECMWF/GFS40 SHOWING ONLY A VERY SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTION /LI-CAPE
WISE/ WITH THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST BECOMING CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
YET...EVEN WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE SURGING THROUGH
THE AREA OBSERVED AND MODEL PRECIP-WATER IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF
AS YUMA SHOWS LOWER VALUES THEN LAS VEGAS. THEREFORE...WHILE
WEDNESDAY MAY BE VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE
LESS COVERAGE OVER THE DISTRICT AS THE BULK OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY SHIFT
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW FOR DIMINISHED THUNDERSTORM THREATS.
WHILE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL EXIST
ON SATURDAY...LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL KEEP IT CONFINED TO
THE HIGH COUNTY OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.
A DEEP TROF IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN TOWARD THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL SHIFT THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND STOP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEK. YET...WITH TROF WILL ALSO ALLOW THE RIDGE
TO AMPLIFY FOR ANOTHER WARMING TREND. AFTER A MINOR COOL DOWN
LATER THIS WEEK...WILL SEE WARMING (AND ABOVE 100 DEG-F) BY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA UNTIL 04Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY JULY 15 2014...UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE
AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-15 111:1972 83:1975 81:1984 54:1905
KFAT 07-16 111:1925 83:1958 80:1984 54:1905
KFAT 07-17 114:1925 78:1987 80:1984 56:1987
KBFL 07-15 114:1930 87:2011 85:1917 53:1905
KBFL 07-16 115:1925 84:1958 81:2010 52:1899
KBFL 07-17 114:1925 82:1987 81:2005 53:1905
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...WP
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
203 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WET
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING A DRYING TREND AND
LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWAT
VALUES ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS RANGING FROM OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NV TO NEAR OR ABOVE 0.80 INCHES IN THE RENO-TAHOE AREA.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED CONVECTION TO FIRE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON IN MONO COUNTY WHERE STORM CELLS WERE ALREADY
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS STORMS
DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH, THE HRRR SHOWED STORMS IN MINERAL COUNTY
AND ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT PRODUCING LARGE SCALE OUTFLOW THAT
PUSHES NORTH INTO THE BASIN AND RANGE AND SOUTHWARD INTO MONO
COUNTY. THE NAM/GFS WERE INDICATING A BROADER SCALE SIGNAL THAT
SUPPORTS THE HRRR. THIS WOULD KEEP FLASH FLOOD THREAT HIGH INTO
THIS EVENING FOR MONO COUNTY. IN THE BASIN AND RANGE, STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WOULD ACCOMPANY WEAKER STORM CELLS AS
OUTFLOW PUSHES NORTH.
WE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
IT WILL PROBABLY BE MOSTLY SHOWERS GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING. PWAT
VALUES REMAIN HIGH WED-THU (NEAR OR ABOVE ONE INCH ALONG THE
SIERRA) AND MORE STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH GENERALLY SLOW STORM
MOTIONS. CLOUDS FROM TONIGHTS SYSTEM WILL LIMIT CONVECTION NORTH
AND EAST OF RENO BUT SKIES SHOULD BREAK BY MIDDAY FURTHER SOUTH TO
ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG THE TERRAIN. POPS WERE
INCREASED TO LIKELY IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA WHERE MODEL
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH.
ON THURSDAY, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXPANDS NORTHWARD AS WEAK
UPPER JET POSITIONED ALONG THE NV-ID BORDER PLACES WESTERN NV AND
NORTHERN SIERRA IN AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BE MORE SCATTERED TO ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING AND GOOD STORM
INITIATION MIDDAY THURSDAY. POPS WERE BUMPED UP AGAIN FROM THE
SIERRA FRONT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA WHERE STORMS WILL
BE MOST WIDESPREAD. STRENGTH OF STORMS OVERALL WILL BE STRONGER ON
THURSDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. HOHMANN
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FOCUS ON THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DRYING TREND AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEARER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. GENERAL AGREEMENT IS
FOUND AMONGST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN SHIFTING LARGE SCALE RIDGING
EASTWARD WITH A BROAD TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE WEST COAST.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
REMAINING MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. BY SATURDAY, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO BE REPLACED BY DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT ENOUGH REMAINS TO PROVIDE
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF HWY 50.
BY SUNDAY, TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE WEST COAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AN ENHANCED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING WINDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA NORTH OF I-80. A BIT TOO EARLY TO
TALK ANY SPECIFICS ON FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS BUT THE OVERALL TREND
WILL LEND TOWARDS DRYING AND INCREASING WINDS. THE STRENGTH OF WINDS
WILL RELY LARGELY ON HOW FAR INLAND THE UPPER TROUGH CAN PENETRATE
AND THE CURRENT 12Z RUNS KEEP RIDGING STRONGER FURTHER WEST ACROSS
OUR REGION THAN THE LAST 00Z RUNS. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN
INCREASED ENSEMBLE SPREADS IN THE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH/RIDGE
WHICH LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. FUENTES
&&
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS, OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS, AND
SMALL HAIL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z THIS AFTERNOON EVENING,
BEST CHANCES FOR KMMH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z AND FOR
KTVL/KTRK/KRNO/KCXP THRU 02Z. MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
SUSANVILLE/GERLACH THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
FOR WED/THU, STORMS FOR ALL AREAS, BUT BEST THREATS FROM KTRK-KRNO
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING. PEAK TIMES SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY.
FUENTES/WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING NVZ005.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING NVZ002-003.
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ070-071.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ072-073.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
432 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND ONLY AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN
AND CENTRAL TACONICS UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY...
AS OF 432 PM EDT...AN INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER HAS MOVED NORTH AND EAST OF THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION IN THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT. THE CONVECTION
OVER THE DELMARVA REGION...NJ...AND THE NYC CORRIDOR IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC TROUGH...AND AN ELONGATED OR STRETCHED VORTICITY AXIS
ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW
/APPEARS TO BE A POSITIVELY TO NEUTRAL TILTED CUTOFF WITH SOME
CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATING SOME FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
POSSIBLE/. FURTHER UPSTREAM OTHER SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT DRAPPED OVER NRN AND WRN NY. SFC
DEWPTS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE IN THE 50S.
SPC CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND HAS
EXPANDED THE 30% WIND PROBABILITIES TO THE CAPITAL REGION. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT IN THE TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH PWATS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SPC RAP ANALYSIS IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH
RANGE. MLCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO 500-1000 J/KG SOUTH OF
ALB...WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITH THE GREATEST
VALUES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE...AND MULTI-
CELLS AND A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY
ORGANIZING INTO QUASI LINEAR SEGMENTS OR SMALL LINES. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL IN OUR ASSESSMENT FOR THE SEVERE THREAT IS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE LACK OF HEATING AT THE SFC WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR...AS WELL AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES DO INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS OVER THE SE
EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA WITH RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS...SO WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD TORNADO
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES/NW CT
CORRIDOR...IF SEVERE WEATHER MATERIALIZES. SO FAR THE BEST STRONG
TO SEVERE CONVECTION HAS STAYED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA.
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE TRAINING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WHERE THE
LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE S/SW IN THE H850-300 LAYER.
SOME OF THE SOUNDINGS HAVE A TALL AND SKINNY APPEARANCE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THIS REGION. WE ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE WPC DAY
1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHIC FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCEEDING THE
FFG. THEY ACTUALLY TAKE THE AXIS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THIS AREA HAS NOT HAD MUCH RAINFALL...SO AN
INCH OR EVEN TWO INCHES SHOULD NOT PROMOTE WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS AT
THIS TIME.
SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORM MAY
INCREASE AS THE A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AT H250 MOVES
CLOSE TO THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT CREEPS CLOSER WITH STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE HELPING AID THE QG LIFT FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
WITH EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES OVER NIGHT. THE H850 THETA-E
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM. THE NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WEAK WAVE PERHAPS
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVER
LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI CITIES BWTN 06-12Z. THE COOLER
AIR SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE W/NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH THIS SFC WAVE...AS IT
MOVES JUST WEST OR ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY QUITE A BIT WITH GENERALLY MID 50S TO L60S
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH MID AND U60S SOUTH AND
EAST. SFC DEWPTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE 50S NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH
THE BAND OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. SLIGHT CHC TO
HIGH CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY EASTWARD IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
SOME SHOWERS. THE H850-700 FGEN DOES STRENGTHEN SOME WITH THE
FRONT...AS IT CHUGS SLOWLY EASTWARD. DRIER AIR GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING UPSTREAM
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST...AND SE CANADA. THE CUTOFF
ALSO MOVES INTO SW QUEBEC. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A TREND TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. A FEW POP-UP OR INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE WRN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER TROUGH GETTING CLOSER. H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +9C TO +14C
FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MAINLY U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEYS.
WED NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...AS A DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S WITH SOME MID AND U40 OVER THE SRN DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS.
THURSDAY...A MAINLY FAIR AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL
GET CLOSER TO THE REGION FOR PERHAPS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. H850 TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE +9C TO +12C RANGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 75F
TO 80F RANGE OVER MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS...WITH U60S TO M70S OVER
THE MTNS AND HILLS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 50S WITH MID AND UPPER 40S
OVER THE MTNS AND SRN DACKS REGION. THE SFC HIGH MOVES IN OVER THE
NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE LATE IN
DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE TN
VALLEY AND MIDWEST. FAIR AND DRY WX WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND CAPITAL
DISTRICT. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL TO CLOSE
THE WORK WEEK WITH FAIRLY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY
CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
TO START NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT ZONAL...HELPING TO
INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST REGARDING THE
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION.
THIS PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE TRIGGERED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND ATTENDENT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE
THE AREAL EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. FURTHER COMPLICATING
ISSUES WILL BE MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT...AIDED BY WEAK IMPULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE CHAOTIC QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON EACH DAY WITH FRONT
LINGERING CLOSE BY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE KALB AREA TO
JUST NORTH OF KPSF AND AROUND KGFL. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOUR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SO LITTLE LIGHTNING DUE
TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY...NO INDICATIONS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE TAFS. CEILINGS SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST ABOVE 3000
FEET BUT IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...COULD HAVE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
CEILINGS AROUND 2000-2500 FEET.
BY THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL NY/PA COULD AFFECT KALB...KPSF AND KGFL...WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE EVENING. THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS PREVENTS MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE KGFL
AND KPSF TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING
IS RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTS THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. JUST A
MENTION FOR POSSIBLE THUNDER FROM 23Z-24Z AT KALB.
STRONGER CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AROUND NJ AND BUILDING NORTH
TOWARD KPOU...AND MAY TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO KPOU FOR A TEMPO FOR
THUNDER BETWEEN 23Z-24Z. AGAIN...AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING
ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AT KGFL AND KALB
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TRENDING TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER AT KPOU
AND KPSF UNTIL AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK...AND INDICATING
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z-13Z AND VCSH THROUGH
14Z-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KPOU AND KPSF AFTER THAT.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
POSSIBLE GUST NEAR 20 KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KALB. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT SOUTH THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10 KT...THEN OVERNIGHT AND
TOWARD MORNING...WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTH AT 10 KT OR LESS
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT IN THE DAMP AIR
MASS TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100
PERCENT THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
TACONICS...AND ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
MOST MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT
THIS TIME...BUT PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC BASIN MAY EXCEED
ALERT STAGE...AND COULD APPROACH FLOOD STAGE ON WED. FOR
EXAMPLE...GAYLORDSVILLE IS FORECASTED TO BARELY EXCEED THE ITS
MINOR FLOOD STAGE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NERFC FORECASTS.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT HAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT /1-3+ INCHES/...AND THE SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED
THERE...WHERE THE FFG VALUES ARE A LITTLE LOWER.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REGION WILL REMAIN IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
THE DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH PERSISTENT PWAT/S NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES. ALSO...MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WATCH AREA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES
OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
POSSIBLE. SOME RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED ONE TO ONE AND A HALF
INCHES/HOUR. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING...WITH LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS MOST AT
RISK.
OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST. THESE LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE A
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK...AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS
TO RECEDE FAIRLY QUICKLY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
TOWARDS THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TODAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH
WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS
ENDING...AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN
AND CENTRAL TACONICS UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY...
AS OF 128 PM EDT...A BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS OCCURRING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR MASS IS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE. NEW
CONVECTION IS STARTING TO FIRE OVER NJ. THIS CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH...AND AN ELONGATED OR STRETCHED
VORTICITY AXIS ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE
CUTOFF LOW.
SPC CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND HAS
EXPANDED THE 30% WIND PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
USED THE PHRASING SOME MAY BE SEVERE IN TERMS OF THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT IN
TROPICAL LIKE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WITH PWATS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
SPC RAP ANALYSIS IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO 500-1000 J/KG SOUTH OF ALB...WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF
500-1500 J/KG. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION.
THE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE...AND MULTI-
CELLS AND A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY
ORGANIZING INTO QUASI LINEAR SEGMENTS OR SMALL LINES. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL IN OUR ASSESSMENT FOR THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE LACK OF HEATING AT THE SFC WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR...AS WELL AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-1 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES DO INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS OVER THE SE EXTREME OF
THE FCST AREA WITH RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD TORNADO IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES/NW CT CORRIDOR...IF
SEVERE WEATHER MATERIALIZES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN ANY CONVECTION. THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE GREATEST FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE THE MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REACH THE REGION
TOWARD SUNSET...IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...AND INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MAX TRANSLATING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WARMEST IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY HOLD OR
RISE SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER 70S WITHIN MUCH OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GENERALLY 65-70 ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LIFT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INDIVIDUAL
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LIKELY TRANSLATING NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
SFC WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SEEPS SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY FURTHER EXACERBATE THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. FURTHER WEST...THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
W AS THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT INTO THE 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...AS LOW LEVEL COOL AIR SEEPS EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON IF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE SLOWLY EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE CHC
POPS REMAIN. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY EVEN LINGER AS FAR W AS
THE HUDSON RIVER EARLY. EVENTUALLY...THE SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT E OF
THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORM LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS SOME
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME
SHALLOW SFC BASED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80
IN VALLEYS...AND MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WED NT-THU NT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO DEVELOP FOR
WED NT...WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR JUST ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY...AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THU NT...AS
TEMPS COOL INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO START OFF DRY ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND THEN
SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60 AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF ON THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE DELMARVA REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH A COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND
CAPE COD. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY GIVING US THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN FROM LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE KALB AREA TO
JUST NORTH OF KPSF AND AROUND KGFL. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOUR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SO LITTLE LIGHTNING DUE
TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY...NO INDICATIONS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE TAFS. CEILINGS SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST ABOVE 3000
FEET BUT IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...COULD HAVE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
CEILINGS AROUND 2000-2500 FEET.
BY THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL NY/PA COULD AFFECT KALB...KPSF AND KGFL...WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE EVENING. THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS PREVENTS MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE KGFL
AND KPSF TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING
IS RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTS THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. JUST A
MENTION FOR POSSIBLE THUNDER FROM 23Z-24Z AT KALB.
STRONGER CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AROUND NJ AND BUILDING NORTH
TOWARD KPOU...AND MAY TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO KPOU FOR A TEMPO FOR
THUNDER BETWEEN 23Z-24Z. AGAIN...AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING
ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AT KGFL AND KALB
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TRENDING TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER AT KPOU
AND KPSF UNTIL AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK...AND INDICATING
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z-13Z AND VCSH THROUGH
14Z-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KPOU AND KPSF AFTER THAT.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
POSSIBLE GUST NEAR 20 KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KALB. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT SOUTH THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10 KT...THEN OVERNIGHT AND
TOWARD MORNING...WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTH AT 10 KT OR LESS
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH TODAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS ENDING...AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
TACONICS...AND ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA ALREADY RECEIVED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-3+
INCHES LATE SUNDAY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SE CATSKILLS...AND NW CT. AN ADDITIONAL 1.5 TO 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WATCH AREA.
MOST MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT
THIS TIME...BUT PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC BASIN MAY EXCEED
ALERT STAGE...AND COULD APPROACH FLOOD STAGE ON WED.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REGION WILL REMAIN IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH PERSISTENT PWAT/S NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
ALSO...MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WATCH AREA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES
OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE. SOME RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED ONE INCH/HOUR.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...WITH LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS MOST AT RISK.
OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST. IF THE AXIS OF MOST PERSISTENT
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS OR SHIFTS FURTHER N AND W...THEN
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER IN TIME.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK...AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS
TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TODAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH
WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS
ENDING...AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN
AND CENTRAL TACONICS UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY...
AS OF 128 PM EDT...A BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS OCCURRING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR MASS IS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE. NEW
CONVECTION IS STARTING TO FIRE OVER NJ. THIS CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH...AND AN ELONGATED OR STRETCHED
VORTICITY AXIS ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE
CUTOFF LOW.
SPC CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND HAS
EXPANDED THE 30% WIND PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE CAPITAL REGION. WE
USED THE PHRASING SOME MAY BE SEVERE IN TERMS OF THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT IN
TROPICAL LIKE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WITH PWATS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
SPC RAP ANALYSIS IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO 500-1000 J/KG SOUTH OF ALB...WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF
500-1500 J/KG. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION.
THE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE...AND MULTI-
CELLS AND A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY
ORGANIZING INTO QUASI LINEAR SEGMENTS OR SMALL LINES. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL IN OUR ASSESSMENT FOR THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE LACK OF HEATING AT THE SFC WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR...AS WELL AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 0-1 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES DO INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS OVER THE SE EXTREME OF
THE FCST AREA WITH RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD TORNADO IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES/NW CT CORRIDOR...IF
SEVERE WEATHER MATERIALIZES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN ANY CONVECTION. THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE GREATEST FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE THE MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REACH THE REGION
TOWARD SUNSET...IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...AND INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MAX TRANSLATING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WARMEST IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY HOLD OR
RISE SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER 70S WITHIN MUCH OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND GENERALLY 65-70 ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LIFT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INDIVIDUAL
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LIKELY TRANSLATING NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A
SFC WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SEEPS SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY FURTHER EXACERBATE THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. FURTHER WEST...THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
W AS THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT INTO THE 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...AS LOW LEVEL COOL AIR SEEPS EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON IF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE SLOWLY EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE CHC
POPS REMAIN. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY EVEN LINGER AS FAR W AS
THE HUDSON RIVER EARLY. EVENTUALLY...THE SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT E OF
THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORM LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS SOME
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME
SHALLOW SFC BASED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80
IN VALLEYS...AND MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WED NT-THU NT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO DEVELOP FOR
WED NT...WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR JUST ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY...AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THU NT...AS
TEMPS COOL INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO START OFF DRY ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND THEN
SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60 AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF ON THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE DELMARVA REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH A COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND
CAPE COD. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY GIVING US THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN FROM LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.
CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE MAINLY MVFR WITH SOME IFR PSBL ESPCLY
WHERE AND WHEN CONVECTION OCCURS. SOME VFR IN THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO PLACE
THUNDERSTORMS AT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES AS THE MODELS ARE A BIT
DIFFERENT WITH TIMING SO HAVE USED A PROB30 TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WIND
DIRECTION AND INTENSITY WILL VARY IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH TODAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS ENDING...AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
TACONICS...AND ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA ALREADY RECEIVED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-3+
INCHES LATE SUNDAY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SE CATSKILLS...AND NW CT. AN ADDITIONAL 1.5 TO 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WATCH AREA.
MOST MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT
THIS TIME...BUT PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC BASIN MAY EXCEED
ALERT STAGE...AND COULD APPROACH FLOOD STAGE ON WED.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REGION WILL REMAIN IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH PERSISTENT PWAT/S NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
ALSO...MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WATCH AREA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES
OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE. SOME RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED ONE INCH/HOUR.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...WITH LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS MOST AT RISK.
OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST. IF THE AXIS OF MOST PERSISTENT
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS OR SHIFTS FURTHER N AND W...THEN
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER IN TIME.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK...AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS
TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
248 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THEN BEGIN RETURNING NORTHWARD FRIDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE DISTURBANCE WILL STALL OVER THE
AREA PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT
PLUS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H25 JET
HAS ALLOWED NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONG HEATING (OUTSIDE CONVECTION) AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE-BASED LI/S OF -4 TO -6.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR 15-25 KNOTS FORECAST BY MODELS WITH THE
STRONGEST SHEAR OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GIVEN MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING. KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID
90S THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS
THIS EVENING AND EXITING TO THE EAST AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
CLOUDINESS AND MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOWER 70S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING
AND TO THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MIDLANDS BY LATE MORNING AND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BY MID
AFTERNOON. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE FLOWING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER CENTRAL FL. DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 80S ALONG THE NC LINE TO AROUND 90 IN THE CSRA AND WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. PASSING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS WILL KEEP DRIER AIR IN
PLACE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON
THURSDAY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT RETURNING
NORTHWARD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH STALLED OVER CENTRAL FL WILL
BEGIN RETURNING NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS WILL
BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE REGION AND ERODE ANY REMAINING
COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BECOME DISORGANIZED AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING THE REMAINS
OF THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CROSSING THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
IN STORMS. AIRMASS TO REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE INTO THE EVENING.
CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE BY 04Z WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHEAST BEHIND FRONT FRONT.
NAM AND RUC MODELS ARE INDICATING IFR CIGS 06Z-12Z. CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
256 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
THE ONLY THING TO REAL FORECAST ITEM TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING IS THE
REMARKABLY DEEP/UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW DIGGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.
WATER VAPOR AND EVENING UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND COLD (FOR JULY) UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION. SURFACE LOW AND INITIAL COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED EAST/SOUTH OF
THE CWA BUT SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME INSOLATION THIS MORNING
SHOULD RESULT IN RAPIDLY STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE AND LIKELY
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING
AND LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA. GIVEN THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN THE REGION...AND WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 8000FT AGL
CAN`T EVEN RULE OUT A TOUCH OF GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IF ANY MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS FORM. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE SECONDARY FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SUBSEQUENTLY IS
ONE OF THE ONLY MODELS SHOWING A LAKE BREEZE MOVING JUST INLAND
INTO NE IL...WHICH COULD CERTAINLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID- UPPER 60S TODAY
DESPITE SOME MIXED SUNSHINE...PROBABLY FALLING SHY OF RECORD COLD
HIGH TEMPS BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR NON-URBANIZED AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 40S TONIGHT
FOR LOWS...WITH SOME TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING WELL
INTO THE 40S.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GO THROUGH A DEAMPLIFICATION AND
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.CLIMATE...
347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 52 IN 1967 49 IN 1945
ROCKFORD 45 IN 1930 46 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 IN 1903 62 IN 1912
ROCKFORD 64 IN 1962 68 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THRU LATE AFTERNOON.
* LAKE BREEZE EARLY EVENING.
* SHRA THIS AFTERNOON THRU MID EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS JUST A
BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM WHICH SHOULD MOVE FAR
ENOUGH INLAND TO REACH ORD/MDW IN THE 00Z-01Z TIME FRAME THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING IS STILL A BIT LOW. AS THIS BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL TURN BACK LIGHT NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A
LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO MENTION AT DPA/ORD AND MAY NEED TO EXPAND THIS FURTHER SOUTH
TO MDW/GYY AS TRENDS EMERGE. PRECIP COVERAGE COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH
FOR OUTFLOWS TO HELP PUSH A LAKE BOUNDARY INLAND...THUS LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING. INSTABILITY IS ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED TSRA BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THIS
FORECAST. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM FOR A LAKE BREEZE...LOW FOR TIMING.
* HIGH FOR SHRA...MEDIUM FOR COVERAGE/TIMING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LAKE BREEZES POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
245 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIAN BAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BRISK NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE EVENING...POSSIBLE EVENING TURNING ONSHORE OVER THE
ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE HIGH SPREADS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE IMPACTING LAKE MICHIGAN
INTO FRIDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL COVER THE LAKE. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
TO LAKE WINNIPEG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO HUDSON BAY
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE LAKE... WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AND BECOME GENERALLY SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
243 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
THE ONLY THING TO REAL FORECAST ITEM TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING IS THE
REMARKABLY DEEP/UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW DIGGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.
WATER VAPOR AND EVENING UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND COLD (FOR JULY) UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION. SURFACE LOW AND INITIAL COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED EAST/SOUTH OF
THE CWA BUT SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME INSOLATION THIS MORNING
SHOULD RESULT IN RAPIDLY STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE AND LIKELY
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING
AND LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA. GIVEN THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN THE REGION...AND WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 8000FT AGL
CAN`T EVEN RULE OUT A TOUCH OF GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IF ANY MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS FORM. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE SECONDARY FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SUBSEQUENTLY IS
ONE OF THE ONLY MODELS SHOWING A LAKE BREEZE MOVING JUST INLAND
INTO NE IL...WHICH COULD CERTAINLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID- UPPER 60S TODAY
DESPITE SOME MIXED SUNSHINE...PROBABLY FALLING SHY OF RECORD COLD
HIGH TEMPS BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR NON-URBANIZED AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 40S TONIGHT
FOR LOWS...WITH SOME TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING WELL
INTO THE 40S.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GO THROUGH A DEAMPLIFICATION AND
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.CLIMATE...
347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 52 IN 1967 49 IN 1945
ROCKFORD 45 IN 1930 46 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 IN 1903 62 IN 1912
ROCKFORD 64 IN 1962 68 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THRU EARLY EVENING.
* LAKE BREEZE EARLY EVENING.
* SHRA THIS AFTERNOON THRU MID EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS JUST A
BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM WHICH SHOULD MOVE FAR
ENOUGH INLAND TO REACH ORD/MDW IN THE 00Z-01Z TIME FRAME THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING IS STILL A BIT LOW. AS THIS BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL TURN BACK LIGHT NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A
LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO MENTION AT DPA/ORD AND MAY NEED TO EXPAND THIS FURTHER SOUTH
TO MDW/GYY AS TRENDS EMERGE. PRECIP COVERAGE COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH
FOR OUTFLOWS TO HELP PUSH A LAKE BOUNDARY INLAND...THUS LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING. INSTABILITY IS ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED TSRA BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THIS
FORECAST. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM FOR A LAKE BREEZE...LOW FOR TIMING.
* HIGH FOR SHRA...MEDIUM FOR COVERAGE/TIMING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LAKE BREEZES POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
245 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIAN BAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BRISK NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE EVENING...POSSIBLE EVENING TURNING ONSHORE OVER THE
ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE HIGH SPREADS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE IMPACTING LAKE MICHIGAN
INTO FRIDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL COVER THE LAKE. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
TO LAKE WINNIPEG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO HUDSON BAY
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE LAKE... WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AND BECOME GENERALLY SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1246 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
THE ONLY THING TO REAL FORECAST ITEM TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING IS THE
REMARKABLY DEEP/UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW DIGGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.
WATER VAPOR AND EVENING UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND COLD (FOR JULY) UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION. SURFACE LOW AND INITIAL COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED EAST/SOUTH OF
THE CWA BUT SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME INSOLATION THIS MORNING
SHOULD RESULT IN RAPIDLY STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE AND LIKELY
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING
AND LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA. GIVEN THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN THE REGION...AND WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 8000FT AGL
CAN`T EVEN RULE OUT A TOUCH OF GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IF ANY MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS FORM. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE SECONDARY FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SUBSEQUENTLY IS
ONE OF THE ONLY MODELS SHOWING A LAKE BREEZE MOVING JUST INLAND
INTO NE IL...WHICH COULD CERTAINLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID- UPPER 60S TODAY
DESPITE SOME MIXED SUNSHINE...PROBABLY FALLING SHY OF RECORD COLD
HIGH TEMPS BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR NON-URBANIZED AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 40S TONIGHT
FOR LOWS...WITH SOME TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING WELL
INTO THE 40S.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GO THROUGH A DEAMPLIFICATION AND
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.CLIMATE...
347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 52 IN 1967 49 IN 1945
ROCKFORD 45 IN 1930 46 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 IN 1903 62 IN 1912
ROCKFORD 64 IN 1962 68 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THRU EARLY EVENING.
* LAKE BREEZE EARLY EVENING.
* SHRA THIS AFTERNOON THRU MID EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS JUST A
BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM WHICH SHOULD MOVE FAR
ENOUGH INLAND TO REACH ORD/MDW IN THE 00Z-01Z TIME FRAME THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING IS STILL A BIT LOW. AS THIS BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL TURN BACK LIGHT NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A
LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO MENTION AT DPA/ORD AND MAY NEED TO EXPAND THIS FURTHER SOUTH
TO MDW/GYY AS TRENDS EMERGE. PRECIP COVERAGE COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH
FOR OUTFLOWS TO HELP PUSH A LAKE BOUNDARY INLAND...THUS LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING. INSTABILITY IS ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED TSRA BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THIS
FORECAST. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM FOR A LAKE BREEZE...LOW FOR TIMING.
* HIGH FOR SHRA...MEDIUM FOR COVERAGE/TIMING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LAKE BREEZES POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
224 AM CDT
MAIN MARINE FOCUS IS WITH GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE
ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS. WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE
LIKELY AS UNSEASONABLY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFICIENT MIXING OF MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE-INDUCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE.
THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE LAKES ALLOWING MODEST SOUTH FLOW TO RETURN.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1104 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
THE ONLY THING TO REAL FORECAST ITEM TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING IS THE
REMARKABLY DEEP/UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW DIGGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.
WATER VAPOR AND EVENING UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND COLD (FOR JULY) UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION. SURFACE LOW AND INITIAL COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED EAST/SOUTH OF
THE CWA BUT SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME INSOLATION THIS MORNING
SHOULD RESULT IN RAPIDLY STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE AND LIKELY
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING
AND LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA. GIVEN THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN THE REGION...AND WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 8000FT AGL
CAN`T EVEN RULE OUT A TOUCH OF GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IF ANY MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS FORM. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE SECONDARY FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SUBSEQUENTLY IS
ONE OF THE ONLY MODELS SHOWING A LAKE BREEZE MOVING JUST INLAND
INTO NE IL...WHICH COULD CERTAINLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID- UPPER 60S TODAY
DESPITE SOME MIXED SUNSHINE...PROBABLY FALLING SHY OF RECORD COLD
HIGH TEMPS BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR NON-URBANIZED AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 40S TONIGHT
FOR LOWS...WITH SOME TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING WELL
INTO THE 40S.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL GO THROUGH A DEAMPLIFICATION AND
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.CLIMATE...
347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 52 IN 1967 49 IN 1945
ROCKFORD 45 IN 1930 46 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 IN 1903 62 IN 1912
ROCKFORD 64 IN 1962 68 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THRU EARLY EVENING.
* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE/NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
* SCATTERED SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW CLOUDS WRAPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN
IL EARLY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION WEST OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
PATCHY LOW LAYERS FROM 1500-2500 FT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
MVFR CEILING INTO TERMINALS SHORTLY...THOUGH BASES SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LIFT INTO VFR RANGE BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH
FROM GRB TOWARD MKE OVERNIGHT ARE BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE EAST
WITH MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND RADAR TRENDS APPEAR TO SUPPORT
THIS. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL THIS
MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION
AT THIS TIME. DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GREATER COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH FOR THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ADVANCING SLOWLY FROM THE PLAINS TODAY...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE NEARLY ALL MODELS
MAINTAIN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AT LEAST ON SET OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THE GRADIENT WEAKENING
ENOUGH ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO PRODUCE A LAKE BREEZE
WITH A NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT. GYY AND MDW WOULD BE MOST DIRECTLY
IMPACTED IN THIS SCENARIO...THOUGH WITH FAIRLY DECENT NORTHWEST
GRADIENT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN LAKE BREEZE AFFECTING
ORD/MDW.
LIGHTER WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES. WINDS WILL LIKELY TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST
WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS...LOW FOR LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL/TIMING.
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LAKE BREEZES POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
224 AM CDT
MAIN MARINE FOCUS IS WITH GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE
ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS. WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE
LIKELY AS UNSEASONABLY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFICIENT MIXING OF MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE-INDUCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE.
THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE LAKES ALLOWING MODEST SOUTH FLOW TO RETURN.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
256 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS GOVE COUNTY BUT GIVEN
MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EVEN A LITTLE
HEATING THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...HAVE KEPT MINIMAL POPS IN
FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE
SOMEWHERE. HRRR SUPPORTS THIS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT PRECIP INDICATED
THROUGH 00Z. THE HRRR HAS HANDLED TODAYS PRECIP EVOLUTION FAIRLY
WELL.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
THIS EVENING GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE GFS SEEMS TO BLOW
UP A SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THIS EVENING AND HOLD IT TOGETHER
ALL THE WAY INTO SW KANSAS. THAT SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY AND
PREFER THE SREF FOR PRECIP TIMING AND EVOLUTION THIS EVENING.
THINKING BETTER PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT ARE WITH THE WELL-
DEVELOPED UPPER LOW NOW CROSSING MONTANA. THAT FEATURE WILL
GENERATE A DECENT ROUND OF PRECIP BUT LIKELY NOT BEFORE 06Z IN OUR
COUNTIES. AGAIN...WENT BASICALLY WITH AN SREF EVOLUTION OF PRECIP WHICH
BRINGS SHRA/TSRA SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT WITH AN EMPHASIS IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA TOMORROW.
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS THE NEXT 36 HOURS...KEEPING MID 50S
OVERNIGHT GIVEN CLOUD COVER...INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S...AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 60S ON
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
HAVE TRANSITIONED THE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS A RESULT MAINLY OF THE SURFACE WINDS TRANSITIONING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TO A MORE EAST/NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WHICH FAVORS
MORE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
FELT STRONGLY ENOUGH ABOUT THE AVAILABLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VORTICITY MAX AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM 700MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALOFT IN THE SUBSIDENT AREA BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH THE COOL AIRMASS EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S ON
FRIDAY.
EXPECT THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BECOMING WARMER
THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO AN INITIALLY MORE
ZONAL FLOW AND THEN INTO A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION BY TUESDAY.
ALSO EXPECT A TRANSITION INTO A MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN LATE DAY AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE THEREFORE
EITHER HINTED AT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK INCREASE IN POPS
OR HAVE PUT IN ISOLATED OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH LATE DAY TO
OVERNIGHT PERIODS IN DAYS 5 THROUGH 7.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014 SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA-KANSAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
OVER WYOMING TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEAST AND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER 00Z WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KGLD OVERNIGHT. VFR CEILINGS FORECAST
DURING TAF PERIOD. AS THE WYOMING SYSTEM ORGANIZES
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS
MAINLY AFTER 06Z AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD 09-12Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
152 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS GOVE COUNTY BUT GIVEN
MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EVEN A LITTLE
HEATING THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...HAVE KEPT MINIMAL POPS IN
FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE
SOMEWHERE. HRRR SUPPORTS THIS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT PRECIP INDICATED
THROUGH 00Z. THE HRRR HAS HANDLED TODAYS PRECIP EVOLUTION FAIRLY WELL.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
THIS EVENING GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE GFS SEEMS TO BLOW
UP A SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THIS EVENING AND HOLD IT TOGETHER
ALL THE WAY INTO SW KANSAS. THAT SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY AND
PREFER THE SREF FOR PRECIP TIMING AND EVOLUTION THIS EVENING.
THINKING BETTER PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT ARE WITH THE WELL-
DEVELOPED UPPER LOW NOW CROSSING MONTANA. THAT FEATURE WILL
GENERATE A DECENT ROUND OF PRECIP BUT LIKELY NOT BEFORE 06Z IN OUR
COUNTIES. AGAIN...WENT BASICALLY WITH AN SREF EVOLUTION OF PRECIP WHICH
BRINGS SHRA/TSRA SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT WITH AN EMPHASIS IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA TOMORROW.
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS THE NEXT 36 HOURS...KEEPING MID 50S
OVERNIGHT GIVEN CLOUD COVER...INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S...AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 60S ON
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
INITIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
CONVECTION IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE LATE SATURDAY IN A RELATIVELY
SHORT WINDOW WHEN WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES COMMENCE BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS.
ONE OR MORE DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE PERTURBATIONS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
COULD PROVIDE WEAK FORCING TO AID IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS LACKING CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
BUILDING UPPER HIGH...MAINLY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS PERSISTENTLY SHARPER WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH
THAN ECMWF WITH DIFFERENCES IN ITS POSITION AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN EITHER CASE THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND BELOW CLIMO POPS FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
APPROACH OR EXCEED 597 DM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014 SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA-KANSAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
OVER WYOMING TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEAST AND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER 00Z WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KGLD OVERNIGHT. VFR CEILINGS FORECAST
DURING TAF PERIOD. AS THE WYOMING SYSTEM ORGANIZES
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS
MAINLY AFTER 06Z AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD 09-12Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1130 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE POP/WX GRIDS TO BETTER DELINEATE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM BENKELMAN TO OAKLEY APPEARS RELATED TO RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 300 MB JET AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
600-700 MB LAYER. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS
IN THE 0-9 HOUR TIME FRAME...NOT ONLY FOR THE BENKELMAN TO OAKLEY
BAND BUT ALSO THE NEWLY DEVELOPING AREA OF SHOWERS OVER KIT CARSON
AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES. FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE NAM-
GFS-ECMWF WERE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT RW/TRW WILL DEVELOP
IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME WITH THE SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH PRECIP CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.
ADJUSTED POP/WX GRID TIMING ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN EXIT
NORTHWEST KANSAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER COLORADO WEDNESDAY.
FOR THIS MORNING, CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST
FA. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THESE STORMS WILL TRAVERSE OVER THIS AREA
UNTIL AROUND 18Z. PLAN TO USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENT.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, PLAN TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF
THUNDERTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM INDICATED FROM 400 TO 1000
J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN EASTERN COLORADO. SHEAR
VALUES ARE FROM 50 TO 55KTS. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY, DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO IMPACT THE
FA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND OVERSPREAD THE FA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM THIS TROUGH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY DYNAMICS START TO WANE
ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL SUPPORT
MORE THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWERS. PLAN TO CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING TO CHANCE
THURSDAY MORNING AND SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
WILL MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL BE NIL
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH READINGS IN THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
INITIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
CONVECTION IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE LATE SATURDAY IN A RELATIVELY
SHORT WINDOW WHEN WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES COMMENCE BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS.
ONE OR MORE DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE PERTURBATIONS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
COULD PROVIDE WEAK FORCING TO AID IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS LACKING CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
BUILDING UPPER HIGH...MAINLY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS PERSISTENTLY SHARPER WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH
THAN ECMWF WITH DIFFERENCES IN ITS POSITION AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN EITHER CASE THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND BELOW CLIMO POPS FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
APPROACH OR EXCEED 597 DM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014 SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA-KANSAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
OVER WYOMING TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEAST AND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER 00Z WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KGLD OVERNIGHT. VFR CEILINGS FORECAST
DURING TAF PERIOD. AS THE WYOMING SYSTEM ORGANIZES
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS
MAINLY AFTER 06Z AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD 09-12Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DLF
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
317 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. ALSO HAVE PLENTY OF LIFT DUE TO BEING IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET WHICH IS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. ALL THIS COMBINED WITH THE FRONT MOVING IN AND
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HRRR AND RUC ARE DOING A GOOD
JOB DEPICTING ONE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW ALL THESE
THUNDERSTORMS JUST SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE CORFIDI
VECTORS ONLY SHOW SLOW PROPAGATION ACROSS THE AREA OF THESE
STORMS. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AS MANY AREAS HAVE BEEN
QUITE DRY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AS THIS COULD BE
THE ONE AREA THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO PULSE UP AND BECOME SEVERE BUT THE BEST SHEAR IS MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER SUNSET THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S
WHICH MATCHES MOSGUIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT
THE SHOWERS TO END DURING THE EARLY MORNING IN THE WEST BUT TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO FINALLY END OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE EAST
WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 80 BUT OUT WEST WHERE THE SUN DOES COME OUT
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. IF CLOUDS LINGER IN THE
WEST THE HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY SOME
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MOST OF THIS MOISTURE TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA SO STILL EXPECT A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY.
FOLLOWED MOSGUIDE WITH HIGHS SLOWLY WARMING FROM THE MID 80S
THURSDAY TO NEAR 90 BY FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 60S POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
50S WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT ALL AREAS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO GET PULLED
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND, AND WE WILL LIKELY
SEE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY KICK BACK UP INCREMENTALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE WAVY FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. KEPT A LOW (SLIGHT CHC) POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS INITIAL WAVE PUSHES ACROSS...WITH HIGHER, MORE
WIDESPREAD HIGH END CHC (40%) POP SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS, WITH A SECOND PERIOD OF (MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN) 40-50% POP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS NEXT VORTMAX
PUSHES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SET UP
OFFSHORE, BRINGING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SET UP AND WARMING
TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT MAXIMA TO AVERAGE AROUND -1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND FRI-SUN,
WITH SOME WARMING BACK TOWARDS CLIMO NORMAL MON/TUE. EARLY
MORNING LOWS WILL SETTLE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVR THE CWA AS OF 2 PM IN THE
HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACRS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENG...AND HAVE
INCLUDED EITHER VCTS/VCSH INITIALLY IN ALL TAF SITES...THEN HAVE
PREVAILING -SHRAS OR -RA FOR ALL SITES THIS EVENG INTO WED MORNG.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT STRONGER TSTMS OR
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS. DID NOT
INCLUDE THESE CONDITIONS IN TAF SITES SO FAR. PCPN WILL END FM WNW
TO ESE LATE TNGT THRU WED...AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFF THE
CST. MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED WED AFTN THRU FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINED BELOW SCA CRITERIA MONDAY EVENING
AND EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WIND SENSORS IN THE MARINE AREA WERE
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR HIGHER. WAVES AND SEAS WERE UNIMPRESSIVE
INDICATING THAT THE STRONGER WINDS WERE NOT COMPLETELY MIXING TO THE
SURFACE OF THE WATER. WAVES IN THE BAY WERE MAINLY AROUND A
FOOT...PROBABLY UP TO 2 FEET IN THE CHANNELS. SEAS SUBSIDED TO
AROUND 2 TO 3 FT.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS
FROM THE S/SW UNTIL ITS PASSAGE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST DURING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY INCREASE TO AROUND
15 KNOTS TOWARD 12-15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF SCA EPISODE OVER THE BAY
WITH WATER TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE BAY CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES BUT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE.
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY) AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTION OF THE
20NM ZONES BUT HELD IT TO 4 FT OR LESS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
242 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE WEST
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1005MB LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
BACK THROUGH THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AND HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OVERALL THIS PLACES THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER SW FLOW.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE RIDGE BUILDS
OFF THE COAST. A STRONG ANTICYCLONIC UPPER JET WILL ENHANCE OVER THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITHIN THE
FAVORABLE ASCENT REGION WITHIN THE RRQ. THE BEST FORCING SHOULD
ARRIVE WITHIN THE 18-00Z WINDOW...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY TRIGGERING
IN VICINITY OF A LEE-SIDE/PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...WITH
15/03Z SREF INDICATING A 60-70% PROB OF CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
2000J/KG ACROSS THE BULK OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND THE 15/00Z GFS/NAM
INDICATING LI VALUES AVERAGING AROUND -5. THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER
FLOW GENERALLY REMAINS N OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT ENCROACHES ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE 20-30KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
WHEN COMBINED WITH LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RA IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GRIDDED FFG VALUES ARE TOO HIGH WHEN
COMPARED TO QPF FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT...AND HENCE
NO FFA IS NECESSARY. IN LOOKING AT THE MOST RECENT RUC AND THE
HRRR COULD SEE SOME EARLIER DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE COAST SO
INCREASED POPS SOME EARLIER ALONG THE COAST.
THE DAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA...AND GIVEN THIS
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS
RESULTS IN FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 OVER
THE PIEDMONT...TO THE LOW/MID 90S ALONG AND E OF I-95. AGAIN...DUE
TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS THE RIC METRO AREA SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR INTO
THE 90S BY MIDDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES BECOME LIMITED DUE TO
DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER/RA. HEAT INDICES
WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 100-104 ACROSS SE PORTIONS MIDDAY THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE. THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) WILL SHIFT
TOWARD THE COAST. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL WANE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER PREVAILING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S W...TO LOW 70S E.
POPS WILL DECREASE FROMM WNW TO ESE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER/NOT AS WARM AIRMASS EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FM THE W/NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
INCREASING SUNSHINE FM W TO E IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 80-85.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU
THURSDAY RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKY. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FM THE MID/UPPER 50S FAR NW...TO THE UPPER
60S FAR SE. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MS
VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO GET PULLED
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND, AND WE WILL LIKELY
SEE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY KICK BACK UP INCREMENTALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE WAVY FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. KEPT A LOW (SLIGHT CHC) POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS INITIAL WAVE PUSHES ACROSS...WITH HIGHER, MORE
WIDESPREAD HIGH END CHC (40%) POP SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS, WITH A SECOND PERIOD OF (MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN) 40-50% POP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS NEXT VORTMAX
PUSHES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SET UP
OFFSHORE, BRINGING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SET UP AND WARMING
TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT MAXIMA TO AVERAGE AROUND -1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND FRI-SUN,
WITH SOME WARMING BACK TOWARDS CLIMO NORMAL MON/TUE. EARLY
MORNING LOWS WILL SETTLE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVR THE CWA AS OF 2 PM IN THE
HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACRS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENG...AND HAVE
INCLUDED EITHER VCTS/VCSH INITIALLY IN ALL TAF SITES...THEN HAVE
PREVAILING -SHRAS OR -RA FOR ALL SITES THIS EVENG INTO WED MORNG.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT STRONGER TSTMS OR
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS. DID NOT
INCLUDE THESE CONDITIONS IN TAF SITES SO FAR. PCPN WILL END FM WNW
TO ESE LATE TNGT THRU WED...AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFF THE
CST. MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED WED AFTN THRU FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINED BELOW SCA CRITERIA MONDAY EVENING
AND EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WIND SENSORS IN THE MARINE AREA WERE
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR HIGHER. WAVES AND SEAS WERE UNIMPRESSIVE
INDICATING THAT THE STRONGER WINDS WERE NOT COMPLETELY MIXING TO THE
SURFACE OF THE WATER. WAVES IN THE BAY WERE MAINLY AROUND A
FOOT...PROBABLY UP TO 2 FEET IN THE CHANNELS. SEAS SUBSIDED TO
AROUND 2 TO 3 FT.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS
FROM THE S/SW UNTIL ITS PASSAGE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST DURING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY INCREASE TO AROUND
15 KNOTS TOWARD 12-15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF SCA EPISODE OVER THE BAY
WITH WATER TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE BAY CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES BUT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE.
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY) AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTION OF THE
20NM ZONES BUT HELD IT TO 4 FT OR LESS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/TMG
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
208 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE WEST
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1005MB LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
BACK THROUGH THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AND HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OVERALL THIS PLACES THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER SW FLOW.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE RIDGE BUILDS
OFF THE COAST. A STRONG ANTICYCLONIC UPPER JET WILL ENHANCE OVER THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITHIN THE
FAVORABLE ASCENT REGION WITHIN THE RRQ. THE BEST FORCING SHOULD
ARRIVE WITHIN THE 18-00Z WINDOW...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY TRIGGERING
IN VICINITY OF A LEE-SIDE/PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...WITH
15/03Z SREF INDICATING A 60-70% PROB OF CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
2000J/KG ACROSS THE BULK OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND THE 15/00Z GFS/NAM
INDICATING LI VALUES AVERAGING AROUND -5. THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER
FLOW GENERALLY REMAINS N OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT ENCROACHES ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE 20-30KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
WHEN COMBINED WITH LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RA IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GRIDDED FFG VALUES ARE TOO HIGH WHEN
COMPARED TO QPF FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT...AND HENCE
NO FFA IS NECESSARY. IN LOOKING AT THE MOST RECENT RUC AND THE
HRRR COULD SEE SOME EARLIER DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE COAST SO
INCREASED POPS SOME EARLIER ALONG THE COAST.
THE DAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA...AND GIVEN THIS
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS
RESULTS IN FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 OVER
THE PIEDMONT...TO THE LOW/MID 90S ALONG AND E OF I-95. AGAIN...DUE
TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS THE RIC METRO AREA SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR INTO
THE 90S BY MIDDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES BECOME LIMITED DUE TO
DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER/RA. HEAT INDICES
WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 100-104 ACROSS SE PORTIONS MIDDAY THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE. THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) WILL SHIFT
TOWARD THE COAST. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL WANE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER PREVAILING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S W...TO LOW 70S E.
POPS WILL DECREASE FROMM WNW TO ESE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER/NOT AS WARM AIRMASS EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FM THE W/NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
INCREASING SUNSHINE FM W TO E IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 80-85.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU
THURSDAY RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKY. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FM THE MID/UPPER 50S FAR NW...TO THE UPPER
60S FAR SE. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT ORIENTED
OFFSHORE, AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ADD UP TO A DRY, PLEASANT DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, THIS PERIOD OF BENIGN
WX WL BE SHORT LIVED. A MAJORITY OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH (IN PLACE ACROSS THE PAC NW THIS AFTN) WHICH WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MIDWEEK, AND WILL BE OVER THE MID-SOUTH
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO GET PULLED BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. WL LIKELY SEE RAIN CHANCES
SLOWLY KICK BACK UP INCREMENTALLY LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE WAVY FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. STILL SOME TEMPORAL/SPATIAL DIFFERENCES TO IRON OUT, AS
IS TYPICAL THIS FAR OUT, SO TRIED TO KEEP IT SOMEWHAT GENERAL FOR
NOW. LOW (SLIGHT CHC) POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
INITIAL WAVE PUSHES ACROSS...WITH HIGHER, MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH END
CHC (40%) POP SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS.
TAILED POPS OFF SOME INLAND ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHEST POP/BEST CHC
ACROSS THE SE WITH SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY PUSHING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND OFFSHORE OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT MAXIMA TO AVERAGE AROUND -1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND FRI-SUN, WITH
SOME WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH
RETURN FLOW AND A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SETUP LOOKING TO TAKE
HOLD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL SETTLE INTO
THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVR THE CWA AS OF 2 PM IN THE
HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACRS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENG...AND HAVE
INCLUDED EITHER VCTS/VCSH INITIALLY IN ALL TAF SITES...THEN HAVE
PREVAILING -SHRAS OR -RA FOR ALL SITES THIS EVENG INTO WED MORNG.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT STRONGER TSTMS OR
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS. DID NOT
INCLUDE THESE CONDITIONS IN TAF SITES SO FAR. PCPN WILL END FM WNW
TO ESE LATE TNGT THRU WED...AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFF THE
CST. MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED WED AFTN THRU FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINED BELOW SCA CRITERIA MONDAY EVENING
AND EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WIND SENSORS IN THE MARINE AREA WERE
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR HIGHER. WAVES AND SEAS WERE UNIMPRESSIVE
INDICATING THAT THE STRONGER WINDS WERE NOT COMPLETELY MIXING TO THE
SURFACE OF THE WATER. WAVES IN THE BAY WERE MAINLY AROUND A
FOOT...PROBABLY UP TO 2 FEET IN THE CHANNELS. SEAS SUBSIDED TO
AROUND 2 TO 3 FT.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS
FROM THE S/SW UNTIL ITS PASSAGE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST DURING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY INCREASE TO AROUND
15 KNOTS TOWARD 12-15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF SCA EPISODE OVER THE BAY
WITH WATER TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE BAY CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES BUT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE.
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY) AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTION OF THE
20NM ZONES BUT HELD IT TO 4 FT OR LESS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/TMG
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
257 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY ACROSS
THE REGION AS A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD TODAY.
THIS MORNING...THE SOMEWHAT RAGGED MID/UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED NEAR GRB. MEANWHILE...AN ACTIVE REGION OF 500 HPA
FGEN/DEFORMATION AS ANALYZED BY RAP ANALYSIS IS FORCING MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE NW CWA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A SURGE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AND IS
BRINGING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE
MID/UPPER LOW SLOWLY DEPARTING EASTWARD...PROGRESSION OF THIS PRECIP
WILL BE QUITE SLOW. HOWEVER...WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING NOTED
UPSTREAM...EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS UNDER
THE DEFORMATION BAND AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING. ALSO...A WEAK IMPULSE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AS
NOTED IN WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BRING A BATCH OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE FAR EAST CWA THROUGH MID MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP COVERAGE BECOMES MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN BY THIS TIME AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS PULLING MOST PRECIP OUT OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT AM QUITE HESITANT TO FOLLOW THIS TREND.
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYING ACROSS THE WEST ON TOP OF REMAINING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING COULD INDUCE ISOLATED
LOW-LEVEL SHOWER ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE NORTH WIND STABILIZATION OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL EARLY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CWA.
MADE ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY. OVERALL...THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
MID-JULY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST WHERE SOME CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE LOW 60S WHILE NORTHERLY
WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEP NORTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE 50S. PLACES
ACROSS THE EAST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY EVEN FAIL TO REACH 50 GIVEN
THE LONG FETCH OVER WATERS STILL IN THE UPPER 30S.
TONIGHT...SEVERAL CHALLENGES ARE PRESENT IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
MAIN ONE BEING POTENTIAL FROST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. AM
BEGINNING TO HAVE DECENT CONCERNS THAT LOW-CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE WEST HALF BEFORE LATE
TONIGHT. THE EAST HALF LOOKS TO REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH LOW-CLOUDS AND
STEADY NNW GRADIENT FLOW. THE 00Z NAM WAS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN
REMOVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING...BUT HAS BACKED OFF AND
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GEM AS OF THE 06Z RUN. HAVE
FOLLOWED THIS IDEA AND DELAYED THE DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. WITH THAT SAID...THE WESTERN THIRD OF UPPER MI HAS
THE BEST CHANCE TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST 6 HOURS OF DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.
THROUGH...PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 0.6 INCH ARE NOT OVERALL IMPRESSIVE
FOR OPTIMAL COOLING. WITH GUIDANCE THAT NORMALLY PERFORMS WELL FOR
PRIME COOLING NIGHTS ADVERTISING TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
WEST...HAD A HARD TIME GOING WELL BELOW GUIDANCE. KEPT THE GOING
FORECAST OF UPPER 30S FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS...BUT INCREASED
LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE CENTRAL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME PATCHY FROST FOR THOSE COLD SPOTS...SO CONTINUED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
AT 00Z THU...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN A DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT
STRETCHES FROM WRN QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...THE
RESULTING PATTERN WILL HAVE A SFC HIGH SITTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING TO JUST NE OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRI WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES JUST SW /OR POSSIBLE ALONG THE SW BORDER/ OF
THE CWA. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS SHOW LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES
OF QPF THU AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI /WHERE LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE WOULD OCCUR/...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP
INVERTED V LAYER AS WE SHOULD MIX TO ABOVE 800MB. THE MOISTURE WILL
LIMITED NOT JUST IN THE LOW LEVEL...WHICH WILL FURTHER MINIMIZE
PRECIP CHANCES. OVERALL...THINK A GOOD CU FIELD AND MAYBE SOME VIRGA
IS ALL THAT WILL BE OBSERVED. 850MB TEMPS WILL VARY FROM AROUND 8C E
TO 11C W. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 70S IN MOST PLACES.
NAM AND GFS SHOW ADDITIONAL QPF FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SW FLOW
INCREASES DUE TO THE SFC HIGH MOVING E AND A SFC TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE NRN PLAINS. AGAIN...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS OUTPUT BY
THESE TWO MODELS...AND THE PLACEMENT OF THAT QPF IS ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE MAINLY OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AS MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED THAN THU AND NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE AVAILABLE. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 1C
WARMER THAN THU AND WITH CONTINUED GOOD MIXING AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE 1-2 DEGREES F WARMER THAN THU.
MORE UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. WHILE THE GFS STILL SHOWS PRECIP AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES NEARBY SAT NIGHT/SUN...IT IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT
DOES SO /AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP/. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS
/INCLUDING THE GFS/ HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND FARTHER N WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND...AS A RESULT...SHOWING LESS QPF OVER OR NEAR THE CWA.
WILL USE A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS...BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY
POPS GREATER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE THIS WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE BY 1-2C ON BOTH SAT AND SUN...AND WITH GOOD
MIXING AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SAT WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER THE INTERIOR W AND DOWNSLOPING AREAS FROM THE SW WINDS. SUN
DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS WARM AS CLOUD COVER FROM THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE MAY KEEP TEMPS 2-4 OF DEGREES LOWER AND MAINLY IN THE 70S.
MODEL DISAGREEMENT INCREASES NEXT WEEK AS CONDITIONS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON MORE SUBTLE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT PRECIP
CHANCES MAY INCREASE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BUT THAT IS FAR FROM
CERTAIN. MODELS ALSO DISAGREE ON TEMPS. THE ECMWF BRINGS 850MB TEMPS
UP TO 16C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS NEAR 22C. OF
COURSE...WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP/CLOUD COVER ON TOP OF THE
THERMAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS IS ALSO
QUITE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE EAST OF THE U.P. ALLOWING A LOWER CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KSAW TAF SITE. KCMX WILL ALSO SEE SOME
OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ALLOWING MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. KIWD WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO SEE
MAINLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY IN THE VFR CATEGORY. VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY GUSTY AT AROUND 20 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE LOW...NEAR THE CMX/SAW
TAF SITES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH IN OVER THE IWD TAF
SITE ALLOWING WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NNW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
LAKE HURON SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. PATCHY FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE WITH ANY
SHOWERS...WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AFTER THE RIDGE CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO UP TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
423 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...THE CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA. THE
BOUNDARY SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN. THE RUC HAD THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
OVER SOUTH MS...SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...SO LEFT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WENT WITH GUIDANCE...BASICALLY
CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR A LITTLE EARLIER. THE COOLER AIR WAS
STILL LAGGING...SO MOST LOCATIONS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOOKS
LIKE HATTIESBURG STILL MANAGED THE UPPER 80S.
LOOKS LIKE SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE NORTHWEST ZONES
TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE DELTA WILL BE CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT. DEWPOINTS WERE
ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S. MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS WILL BE APPROACHING
RECORD LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WITH VALUES NEAR 60. OFFICE
CONSENSUS IS SEVERAL RECORDS WILL BE SET FOR THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE
MILD AND PLEASANT FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. LESS HUMIDITY AND A COUPLE
COOL NIGHTS. MODEL RH VALUES WERE AROUND 20-25 PERCENT WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE RETURNS BY THURSDAY WITH SOME SLIGHT WARMING...A FEW
LOCATIONS NEAR 90.
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE EURO WAS A LITTLE FASTER. INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WARM AIR. MODEL INSTABILITY ALSO
INCREASES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE POPS
OR WORDING. ISOLATED THUNDER EARLY SEEMS GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST CIGS PUSHING ABOVE MVFR CATEGORY...BUT THIS
WILL END BY EARLY EVENING AS MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
/EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 60 86 61 90 / 11 3 9 6
MERIDIAN 59 86 57 90 / 15 3 11 6
VICKSBURG 59 85 59 89 / 9 3 8 6
HATTIESBURG 66 89 60 92 / 36 7 4 4
NATCHEZ 62 84 60 88 / 19 2 4 5
GREENVILLE 61 84 61 86 / 8 3 8 6
GREENWOOD 58 83 59 87 / 7 3 9 6
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
07/EC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1103 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.UPDATE..
THE BOUNDARY HAS FINALLY MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES. DEWPOINTS
WERE FALLING WINDS WERE PICKING UP OUT OF THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE BEHIND THE FRONT...SO LEFT SMALL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...LEFT POPS
THE SAME FOR THE MOST PART. MADE LIGHTNING ISOLATED FOR THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES. LOOKS LIKE THE AREA IS LACKING INSTABILITY...BUT
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 84. WITH THE BOUNDARY NOT LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ZONES BEFORE LATE AFTERNOON...MAY LEAVE
ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN FOR MERIDIAN. RUC SHOWS THE BEST MOISTURE
FROM LAFAYETTE TO MERIDIAN...SO WILL LEAVE THOSE AREAS WITH SOME
THUNDER. RAISED POPS FOR THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION...WHERE RAIN WAS
MORE WIDESPREAD.
LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE LOCATIONS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ARE RISING SLOWLY AND THE REST OF THE AREA IS IN THE CLOUDS.
EXPECTING VALUES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S...JUST NOT CONFIDENT IN
THE MID 80S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE EASTERN ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...COLD ADVECTION IFR STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE ALONG THE GLH-GWO-GTR CORRIDOR AS WE GO INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS STRATUS IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD BUT EXPECT IT TO MIX
OUT BEFORE ANCHORING OVER THE HKS/JAN-MEI CORRIDOR. ALL CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 3000FT AFTER 18Z..AND SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. AS WE GO THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 88 59 86 61 / 72 11 4 5
MERIDIAN 88 59 86 58 / 68 17 7 5
VICKSBURG 87 57 86 59 / 72 8 3 5
HATTIESBURG 90 65 88 60 / 74 32 8 4
NATCHEZ 87 62 83 61 / 79 20 2 5
GREENVILLE 85 60 85 62 / 23 5 2 5
GREENWOOD 86 57 84 59 / 37 5 3 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
07/EC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
1013 AM PDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO NYE COUNTY
ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE DRY AIR PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NEVADA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CENTRAL NEVADA,
RUNNING FROM 11 AM THROUGH 11 PM. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS WHITE PINE, NYE, AND SOUTHERN LANDER AND
EUREKA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR DEVELOPS NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE ZONES. WITH PW NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH,
AND CORFIDI VECTORS AS LOW AS 0-3 KTS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. NEAR FULL SUNSHINE OVER THESE ZONES CURRENTLY, SHOULD
LEAD TO RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY NOON. HRRR GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS THE FIRST CONVECTION AROUND EUREKA.
TURNER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 212 AM /
SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN OVERALL CONTROL
TODAY...THOUGH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR PARTICULARLY TO NORTHERN NEVADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT IN CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN NEVADA LATER IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT
PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN IT AND
PUSH IT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO
MOVE INTO ALL OF NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY...AND PUSH INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS THE DRY AIR ADVANCES. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT A
COMPLETE CESSATION OF STORMS IN CENTRAL NEVADA...JUST IN THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL SOMEWHAT FROM YESTERDAY`S
EXTREME HEAT...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE...THOUGH WEAKER...WILL REMAIN IN OVERALL
CONTROL. RCM
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ESTABLISH NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY AND CONTINUE
TO PUMP MOIST AIR INTO THE LKN CWFA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO BRING DRIER AIR INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA AND REDUCE THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NEVADA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE DURING
THE DAY WITH VERY MILD NIGHTS.
AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT MAINLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 IN CENTRAL NEVADA THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...AFFECTING KTPH AND KELY. KEKO WILL SEE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER...BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY IS IN NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA...WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES
TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY UNDISCOVERED FIRES FROM YESTERDAY`S
PLENTIFUL LIGHTNING MAY GROW RAPIDLY TODAY...BUT AT THIS TIME WE
ARE UNAWARE OF ANY ACTIVE FIRES...SO SINCE GUSTS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE 30 MPH OR LESS...NO WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST UNDER THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. WHILE THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH MOST MOISTURE OUT
OF NORTHERN NEVADA...CENTRAL NEVADA WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH HIGHER PW`S AND SLOW STORM MOTION WETTING
RAINS ARE EXPECTED AND THE ONLY DRY LIGHTNING SHOULD BE WHAT
OCCURS OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN CORES. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY INVADE
CENTRAL NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER STORM COVERAGE...AND WHILE
MOISTURE MAY START TO TURN THE CORNER AND MOVE BACK INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA...AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT ALL AREAS NORTH OF
I-80 STORM-FREE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A GENERAL RETURN WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
RCM
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
316 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. RECENT BURN SCARS AND AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE AT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL
STORM ACTIVITY WILL TREND DOWN THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A PWAT VALUE AROUND 1.21 INCHES...WHICH IS
OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINS. RECENT BURN SCARS AS WELL AS AREAS HAVING RECENTLY
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DELAYED INITIATION. THE HRRR AND RUC
DEPICT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE GILA MOUNTAINS AS THE BEST
AREAS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH IS HOLDING
TRUE BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE N
TO S...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH NE NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH AN ATTENDANT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA DUE TO INCREASED
CAPE...SHEAR...AND LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -2 AND -6. THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. LOWERED TEMPS A LITTLE MORE
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS WEDNESDAY
DESPITE SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO NW NM.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TREND DOWN THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RE-CENTERS OVER SOUTHWEST NM.
STORMS WILL BE LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT MAY INCREASE
CHANCES ACROSS THE NE. DRIER AIR UNDERNEATH THE HIGH WILL WORK
INTO WESTERN NM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FURTHER LIMITING STORM
COVERAGE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. WITH THE HIGH MOVING BACK
OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND...BECOMING NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
MODELS HINT FOR A RETURN OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REDEVELOPING THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. BUT STILL LATE IN THE RUNS TO PUT MUCH STOCK IN THAT
OUTLOOK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. ONE
MORE DAY OF WIDESPREAD MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE GRADUAL DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE GOT WORKED OVER BY YESTERDAY/LAST
NIGHTS RAIN. THUS A MORE STABLE START. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A MATURE MCV OR SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY. OTHER AREAS WILL BE SLOW TO
DEVELOP DUE TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS RAIN. NOT EXPECTING NEAR THE COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND STORMS TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL BE PRETTY GOOD WITH HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
THE STAGE IS SET FOR A PRETTY DYNAMIC PERIOD STARTING WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE THAT CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER MONTANA WILL DROP DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A CORRESPONDING SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE UP
WITH THE MAIN WETTING RAIN FOCUS PLACED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AND
PROVIDE A DECENT FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. MORE NOTICEABLE WILL BE THE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND GRADIENT FOUND
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. MODERATELY BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FAIRLY EARLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. A
MORE NORTHERLY COLD FRONTAL PUNCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RECYCLING OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FIRE UP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS THURSDAY AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CELL ACTIVITY WILL BE
MUCH MORE LIMITED ACROSS THE WEST WITH SMALLER FOOTPRINTS OF
MOISTURE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS THAT WILL FILTER
IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING. STILL SEEING SOME
LOCALIZED HAINES 6 VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
AREA. LOW/MID TEEN RH VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAN JUAN
PLATEAU....MUCH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. A FEW
WEST/NORTHWEST RESIDUAL BREEZES ACROSS THE WEST. ANY CELLS THAT DO
FOR SHOULD CONTAIN SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW/DOWNDRAFT WINDS DUE TO THE MID
LEVEL DRYING.
CAN SEE A BRIEF APPEARANCE OF A WESTERLY PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL COME UP BUT EXPECT THAT TO BE
A BRIEF ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES AND DROP HUMIDITY VALUES
ACCORDINGLY. LOOKING AT MORE NUMEROUS TEEN READINGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME BUILDUPS BUT WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINT WOULD BE SMALL IF NOT NONEXISTENT. THIS MEANS A MIX OF
WET/DRY STORMS WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW/DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHWARD AND AFFECT NEW MEXICO/S WEATHER
DURING THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM AND EVENTUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS. HUMIDITY
VALUES SHOULD LOWER AREAWIDE BUT NOT EXPECTING VALUES TO DROP OUT OF
SITE LIKE JUNE READINGS. STILL LOOKING AT SOME HAINES 6 READINGS. AS
THE HEAT PUMP BUILDS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY FLOW BACK
INTO THE UPPER HIGH FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS APPEARS TO BE A
GRADUAL PROCESS BASED ON CURRENT AND PAST MODEL TRENDS. THUS...A
DOWN TREND IN MONSOONAL WETTING RAIN IS INEVITABLE AND EXPECTED FOR
A FEW DAYS.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. RESIDUAL MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS ALSO
IMPACTING A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA. DECIDED TO TAME DOWN TS THREAT
AT MANY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...GUP/FMN/ROW HAVE DECENT CHANCE AT
BEING IMPACTED BY TS OR SH AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE
EVENING. FMN LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LATER BASED ON UPSTREAM
SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS. CARRYING VCSH AT AEG/SAF/ABQ AND TCC
AS A PLACEHOLDER UNTIL DISTINCT PRECIPITATION/CELL TRENDS CAN BE
DISTINGUISHED. PROBABLY IMPACT RG VALLEY LOCATIONS LATER IN THE
DAY. NOT LOOKING AT NEARLY AS MUCH ACTIVITY TONIGHT COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT. FAVORING WESTERN AREAS THOUGH.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 65 91 60 93 / 40 20 30 10
DULCE........................... 51 84 48 88 / 50 40 40 30
CUBA............................ 54 82 53 85 / 60 40 40 40
GALLUP.......................... 58 87 55 88 / 50 30 30 20
EL MORRO........................ 53 79 53 82 / 60 50 40 30
GRANTS.......................... 54 84 54 87 / 60 40 40 20
QUEMADO......................... 56 79 55 83 / 50 50 40 30
GLENWOOD........................ 57 87 58 91 / 40 30 30 20
CHAMA........................... 46 77 46 78 / 60 50 50 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 80 59 81 / 50 40 50 30
PECOS........................... 54 78 55 75 / 50 50 60 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 78 51 75 / 50 50 60 40
RED RIVER....................... 46 68 45 64 / 60 70 60 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 74 43 69 / 50 60 60 60
TAOS............................ 52 80 51 78 / 50 50 50 40
MORA............................ 52 77 51 72 / 50 60 60 60
ESPANOLA........................ 57 85 56 86 / 50 30 40 30
SANTA FE........................ 59 80 59 80 / 50 40 50 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 57 87 57 86 / 50 30 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 63 86 64 87 / 50 30 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 88 66 90 / 50 30 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 62 91 62 94 / 50 30 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 90 63 92 / 50 30 40 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 61 91 61 94 / 40 30 40 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 64 91 64 93 / 50 30 40 20
SOCORRO......................... 66 93 67 96 / 40 40 40 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 87 60 86 / 50 40 40 40
TIJERAS......................... 58 85 59 85 / 50 40 40 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 84 53 82 / 50 50 50 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 83 56 79 / 50 50 50 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 83 60 83 / 50 50 50 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 84 64 86 / 40 40 40 40
RUIDOSO......................... 54 80 57 81 / 50 50 40 60
CAPULIN......................... 55 77 53 68 / 50 70 70 40
RATON........................... 56 83 55 73 / 50 60 60 50
SPRINGER........................ 57 85 54 75 / 50 60 60 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 82 53 74 / 50 50 60 50
CLAYTON......................... 61 85 57 75 / 50 60 60 20
ROY............................. 60 83 58 74 / 50 60 60 40
CONCHAS......................... 66 92 63 81 / 50 50 60 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 90 63 79 / 50 40 60 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 66 93 63 81 / 40 50 60 20
CLOVIS.......................... 62 90 61 80 / 40 40 60 20
PORTALES........................ 63 92 64 82 / 40 40 60 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 91 65 82 / 40 40 60 30
ROSWELL......................... 68 97 68 92 / 30 30 40 30
PICACHO......................... 62 86 63 83 / 40 40 40 40
ELK............................. 59 80 61 80 / 50 50 40 50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
437 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK THIS
EVENING THEN INTO VERMONT OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN VERMONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY. A DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL RETURN LATER WEDNESDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 420 PM EDT TUESDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AROUND 1.5" AND THINK ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD PRODUCE THOSE AMOUNTS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CAPE AROUND 1000 AND PWATS AROUND 1.8"
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR AND HIRESARW DOING WELL
DEPICTING WHAT WE ALREADY SEE ON RADAR AND HAVE FOLLOWED FOR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BASICALLY EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF VERMONT BY 00-03Z. A
SECOND LINE IS POSSIBLE AS FRONT GETS CLOSER INTO OVERNIGHT. FROM
00-12Z MAINLY EXPECT PRECIP ACROSS VERMONT...FINALLY CLEARING
EASTWARD SOMETIME AFTER 12Z. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN WARM
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE AREA AS UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS KEEP VERMONT MAINTAINING
GOOD LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF
THUNDER AFTER 03Z WITH MOST INSTABILITY GONE AT THAT POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL START OUT
CLOUDY STILL ACROSS VERMONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR EASTERN VERMONT AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. HAVE TAPERED OFF PRECIP
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND LOW LEVEL RH
DECREASES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL...UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
10 MPH. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND DAMP GROUND WITH LIGHT WINDS COULD SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY FOG PRONE SPOTS. MIN TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH SOME 50S EXPECTED. THURSDAY WILL FEEL
MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. HAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH SOME MINOR INSTABILITY DUE TO
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THU AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO WED NIGHT...MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HAVE SOME
VERY LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MODELS
INDICATE SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED AS WELL AS MOISTURE. EVENTUALLY WARMER AND INCREASINGLY
MORE HUMID AIR WILL ADVECT BACK INTO OUR CWA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS ERN
NY INTO THE CPV WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO
SRN VT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
SHOWERS. AS LINE OF SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MOVED E OF KMSS...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR...BUT LINGERING SHOWER COULD GIVE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
THIS AFTN.
IN THE CPV...SHOWERS MOVING INTO KPBG...WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS
EXPECTED IN THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN BTWN 18Z AND 20Z EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH.
KRUT WILL SEE SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE REACHES THIS SITE. THIS MEANS MORE PROLONGED
THREAT OF SHOWERS...WITH SOME SHOWERS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
AND A PSBL RUMBLE OF THUNDER. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
INSTABILITY...SO ONLY ISOLATED THREAT OF THUNDER EXPECTED.
KMPV WILL SEE SHOWERS PERSISTS INTO THE EVENING HRS AS COLD FRONT
PRODUCING THE SHOWERS LINGERS ACROSS ERN VT/WRN NH. AGAIN IFR
WITH SOME HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AT ALL SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT IN LINGER
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS ERN VT...WITH MVFR CIGS PSBL BEFORE
TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL BE
PSBL THURSDAY AFTN WITH BRIEF MVFR.
00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...MORNING
FOG/BR WL BE LIKELY ON FRI AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY...AT SLK/MPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...BUT FORTUNATELY
STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ALONG AND NOT PUTTING DOWN EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN ANY ONE LOCATION. RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
SHOWN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS PUTTING DOWN 3/4 TO ONE INCH IN ABOUT AN
HOUR IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST VERMONT. GUIDANCE SHOWING 1.5
INCH OR MORE IN AN HOUR NEEDED FOR FLASH FLOODING AND NOT HITTING
THAT THRESHOLD YET. MAIN DANGER IS TO LOOK OUT FOR AREAS HIT
REPEATEDLY BY PASSING STORMS. HI RESOLUTION MODELS TRENDING TOWARD
A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION/RAINFALL LATER ON WITH THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT, AND WILL NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF AREAS THAT HAVE
PREVIOUSLY RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ028-030-031-034-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
112 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
AGAIN NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO THE 18 UTC OBSERVED TRENDS
WITH THIS UPDATE WITH ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
THE QUIET...DRY AND COOL FORECAST FOR TODAY IS SUPPORTED BY THE
06 UTC SUITE AND 12-13 UTC RAP ITERATIONS WITH NO CHANGES
REQUIRED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATION FROM
RUGBY HAD THEM AT AROUND 1/2 MILE. OTHER THAN ALSO ADJUSTING
CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR CURRENT TRENDS...REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS RESULTS IN
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME OBSERVATION
SITES HAVE COME IN WITH SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES...BUT
GENERALLY P6SM MOST LOCATIONS. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FOG
MENTION.
A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW WELL TO OUR EAST AND WITH SOME WEAK MID
LEVEL RETURN FLOW. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 70S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
ALL GUIDANCE INDICATING CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
MID TO LATE MORNING SO WENT WITH HIGHER SKY COVER FOR THESE
LOCATIONS...PARTLY SUNNY. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WEST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
WEST WITH DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...REGION WILL BE BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING
QUIET WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RIDGE TO THE WEST STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT
LEADING TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM AT THIS
POINT IS THAT MODELS ARE LIFTING SOME KEY FEATURES A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH WOULD LEAN TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST. HAVE STARTED THE TREND TOWARDS LOWER POPS...AND WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THIS CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
VFR CUMULUS FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND FADE WITH SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18
UTC TAF CYCLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
224 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST CLEARING THE WAY FOR COOLER
DRIER DAYS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE WANDERS ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH WV...FIRING UP A LINE
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT THAT HAVE STRUGGLED TO EVEN PRODUCE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE HRRR HAS HAD A RESONABLE HANDLE ON THIS
PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE DAY SO USED IT TO GAUGE THE TIMING OF THE
LINE.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
SKIES BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
FOR MOST. KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR TODAY
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN KEEPING AWAY MOST OF THE SUN UNTIL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOMORROW...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE AS THERE WAS VARIATION FROM LOW 80S TO LOW
70S. CALMER WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES SHOULD KEEP US A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AND THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
KEEP US COOLER THAN THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE WEAK FLOW...MOIST GROUND...AND CLEARING SKIES...CAN CERTAINLY
EXPECT SOME FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS.
EXPECTING IT TO STAY MOSTLY DRY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS TOMORROW EVENING FOR THOSE IN SE OH AS A VORT MAX
MAKES ITS WAY AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL...NO WHOLESALE CHANGES WERE MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. UPPER
CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTH WITH AXIS EXTENDING S/SW-WARD STILL
LOCATED OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AT 00Z THU WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST WED
EVE AND WED NIGHT...WITH AFOREMENTIONED S/W AXIS PROGGED TO BE
LOCATED JUST NE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THU. AM SOMEWHAT
SKEPTICAL OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWEST WED EVE WITH MEAGER LLVL
MOISTURE...PWATS UNDER AN INCH...AND NO APPARENT SFC OR BL FEATURE
TO ACT AS A TRIGGERING MECH. NONETHELESS...WILL KEEP INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS AS
OPERATIONALLY I CAN/T SAY IT WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTIVE SHOWER TO DEVELOP BEFORE LOSING THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
BUT AS PREV SHIFT MENTIONED...THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY WED EVE OR PERHAPS SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE AT WORST. WILL
BUMP UP SKY COVER JUST A TAD WITH SOME INDICATION OF PERHAPS SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT COVERAGE STILL PROBABLY NOT QUITE
ENOUGH AND LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT OVERNIGHT MINS AS THE S/W AXIS
CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH LESS CLOUD COVER TOWARDS THE DAWN HOURS. THU
MORNING SHOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THIS COOL SNAP...WITH MINS
GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 40S IN THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. EVEN HAVE SOME LOW 40S CODED UP FOR THE USUAL
COOL SPOTS OF RANDOLPH/POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.
THURSDAY WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY. ENOUGH OF A PINCH OF MOISTURE REMAINS
AROUND 850MB TO RESULT IN SOME FLAT-CU UNDERNEATH STABLE CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AT 800MB...STILL ALL IN ALL SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
FOR ALL. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARGING MAX TEMPS...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE AT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER
FLOW BACKS TO SW AS A POTENT S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER/MID
MISS VALLEY. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING THE USUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND PARTICULARLY INTO FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE WHOLE WILL BE AROUND 5-7 DEGREES WARMER
VERSUS WED NIGHT WITH READING MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF THE S/W TROUGH TO OUR SW
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY. 925MB AND
850MB TEMPS WOULD INDICATE WARMER MAX TEMP POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY BUT
THINKING THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM FULL HEATING
POTENTIAL...STILL EXPECTING TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AS WELL BY AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
PARTICULARLY HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES
AND ALONG THE EAST/SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS BY THE 21Z FRI-00Z SAT
TIME FRAME. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO RAMP UP WITH THE CAP
AROUND 700MB SO HAVE LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AND THEN REMAIN NEARBY THOUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST THROUGH WV TODAY. AS THEY CROSS...WE SHOULD EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW SITES DROPPING BRIEFLY TO IFR IN THE
HEAVIEST RAIN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST WITH MOST SITES
BOUNCING QUICKLY BACK TO MVFR.
THE FRONT IS NOT FAR BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SCATTER OUT BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOLER DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT...WEAK
FLOW...AND MOIST GROUND FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEFINITLY BE AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE IN THE VALLEYS. THIS COULD DROP
PREDAWN CONDITIONS TO IFR AT SOME LOCATIONS. THE FOG AND STRATUS
SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING LEAVING US WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE MAY BE MORE FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
ANY IFR FOG / STRATUS BURNING OFF FIRST THING WED MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED THU MORNING GIVEN LITTLE OR NO
CLOUD OR WIND.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/50/LS
NEAR TERM...LS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
157 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST CLEARING THE WAY FOR
COOLER DRIER DAYS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE WANDERS ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH WV...FIRING UP A LINE
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT THAT HAVE STRUGGLED TO EVEN PRODUCE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE HRRR HAS HAD A RESONABLE HANDLE ON THIS
PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE DAY SO USED IT TO GAUGE THE TIMING OF THE
LINE.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
SKIES BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
FOR MOST. KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR TODAY
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN KEEPING AWAY MOST OF THE SUN UNTIL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOMORROW...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE AS THERE WAS VARIATION FROM LOW 80S TO LOW
70S. CALMER WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES SHOULD KEEP US A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AND THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
KEEP US COOLER THAN THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE WEAK FLOW...MOIST GROUND...AND CLEARING SKIES...CAN CERTAINLY
EXPECT SOME FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS.
EXPECTING IT TO STAY MOSTLY DRY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS TOMORROW EVENING FOR THOSE IN SE OH AS A VORT MAX
MAKES ITS WAY AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE AREA WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER
IN STORE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO AS A VORT MAX ROUNDS TROUGH...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY. UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH INCREASING
HEAT AND HUMIDITY...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS
THE WEEKEND AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AND THEN REMAIN NEARBY THOUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST THROUGH WV TODAY. AS THEY CROSS...WE SHOULD EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW SITES DROPPING BRIEFLY TO IFR IN THE
HEAVIEST RAIN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST WITH MOST SITES
BOUNCING QUICKLY BACK TO MVFR.
THE FRONT IS NOT FAR BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SCATTER OUT BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOLER DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT...WEAK
FLOW...AND MOIST GROUND FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEFINITLY BE AN
ISSUE...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE IN THE VALLEYS. THIS COULD DROP
PREDAWN CONDITIONS TO IFR AT SOME LOCATIONS. THE FOG AND STRATUS
SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING LEAVING US WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE MAY BE MORE FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
ANY IFR FOG / STRATUS BURNING OFF FIRST THING WED MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED THU MORNING GIVEN LITTLE OR NO
CLOUD OR WIND.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LS
NEAR TERM...LS
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
641 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER LAKE HURON WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ITS SOUTHWARD
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN PA THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
635 PM UPDATE...
KILLED IT. LIGHT ANVIL RAIN/VIRGA SEEN ON THE RADAR WAS THE LAST
STRAW. WILL LEAVE IN CHC SHRA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS IN THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...THE DRY AIR IS THROUGH FIG/BFD/JST...BUT JUST ARRIVING
IN UNV/AOO.
6 PM UPDATE...
ANTICIPATE DROPPING SVR423 SOON. AM LEARY OF DROPPING IT RIGHT
NOW - STILL HAVE ANOTHER HR OR SO BEFORE THE FINAL GOOD PUSH GETS
THROUGH LANCASTER CO. AFTER A FLARE UP OF STRONGER CONVECTION
CLOSE TO THE GOOD FORCING AND IN MORE-SUNNY AREAS OVER NRN
PA...THE LAST LINE OF SHOWERS SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN WEAKENED TO THE
POINT OF USELESSNESS BY THE CLOUDS/COOLING/STABILIZATION SPREADING
ONCE AGAIN OVER CTP/S SERN COS.
EARLIER...
SFC COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KELM...SSW TO KFIG AND KJST
AT 1830Z. HI RES VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUICK CLEARING
BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH JUST SCTD FLAT TO MDT CU TO THE WEST OF THE
RT 219 CORRIDOR.
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WARM AND SOUPY AIR WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCATTERED TSRA WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS
AS THEY MOVE INTO AN AREA OF HIGH MU CAPE EXCEEDING 2000
J/KG...AND A POOL OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE.
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASING INTENSITY TREND OF THE
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS
AND TWD THE SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH PWATS...COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE CAPE...IMPLY THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
AND ADJACENT SERN PA. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF TSRA TO MOVE QUICKLY NE ACROSS
YORK...LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES THROUGH 23Z...WITH LOCALIZED
2-3 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN OUR CURRENT FFG VALUES...THE SLOW/STEADY EWD PROGRESS OF
TSRA LINE SEGMENTS ON THE HIGH RES MODELS...AND THE ANTICIPATED
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL TSRA...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR LIKELY THAT FCST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRESENT A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE THIS
AFTN...AND THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 22-24Z.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE L-M70S
OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES....TO THE U70S AND L80S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN A LITTLE /UNTIL AFTER 06Z/ AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR SE COUNTIES AND BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE MEAN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WELL INTO THE NIGHT DOWN
THERE. ELSEWHERE...THE WELCOME ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING GENERALLY SCT HIGH BASED STRATO
CU OR ALTO CU TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES DURING THE
EVENING.
MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE WED WILL BE IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
CENTRAL ZONES...AND LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR OUT TO THE ENE AND BECOME LOCATED OVER
SRN QUEBEC BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WED.
THE TRAILING MID-UPPER LVL THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES INCREASING TO AROUND 6C/KM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GRT LKS AND NOSE INTO OUR WRN ZONES LATE. THE COOL AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AMT OF CU
ACROSS THE NW MTNS WED...WITH A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF MORNING/MIDDAY SUNSHINE WITH MIX WITH SOME
MDT CU ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY.
THE LARGEST NEGATIVE 925/850 TEMPS ANOMALIES IN GEFS DATA ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE M/U60S
EXPECTED. READINGS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR 80F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL RETREAT INTO NORTHEASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MASS FIELDS LOOK VERY
SIMILAR AMONG ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE DRAGGING A LINGERING UPPER LVL TROF THAT
IS JUST WEST OF PA...EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOC NEG PWAT ANOMALIES SHOULD INITIALLY PROVIDE
CENTRAL PA WITH A PERIOD OF FAIR WX THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHC OF
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME DISPARITY ON THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE OUTPUT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SO HAVE
BACKED UP SLIGHTLY ON POPS...BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN AFTN
AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA. AFTER A COOL MIDWEEK...MEAN TEMPS SHOULD
CREEP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DUE TO WARMER
NIGHTS.
A FAIR AMT OF CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGHS BLW NORMAL. POPS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST
LOOKS UNSETTLED...WITH CENTRAL PA REMAINING ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
UPPER TROF WITH DAILY OPPORTUNITY/S FOR SHOWERS/TSRA. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR THE LONG TERM IS HOW THE TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
INTO NEXT WEEK. A STRONG 600 (DAM) HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION.
850MB TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE 14C RANGE AND
POSSIBLE INCREASING INTO THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A WARMER PERIOD...AND WITH ZONAL FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER KEEPING STORMS FROM GETTING GOING IN
THE MDT/LNS AREA. OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST EAST OF IPT.
THESE LIFTING NE. MOST OF THE AREA NOW VFR. COLD FRONT STILL
TO THE WEST. ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL PERSIST FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH 22Z ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY /INVOF KIPT/...AND THROUGH
00Z-02Z WED IN THE KMDT AND KLNS AREAS AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT.
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
VFR TO THE WEST OF THE CFRONT /ALONG A KBFD...TO KJST LINE/ WILL
ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR WILL COVER MUCH OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY BY 02-04Z WED.
OUTLOOK...
WED- FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSS AFTERNOON TSRA WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
622 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER LAKE HURON WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ITS SOUTHWARD
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN PA THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
6 PM UPDATE...
ANTICIPATE DROPPING SVR423 SOON. AM LEARY OF DROPPING IT RIGHT
NOW - STILL HAVE ANOTHER HR OR SO BEFORE THE FINAL GOOD PUSH GETS
THROUGH LANCASTER CO. AFTER A FLARE UP OF STRONGER CONVECTION
CLOSE TO THE GOOD FORCING AND IN MORE-SUNNY AREAS OVER NRN
PA...THE LAST LINE OF SHOWERS SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN WEAKENED TO THE
POINT OF USELESSNESS BY THE CLOUDS/COOLING/STABILIZATION SPREADING
ONCE AGAIN OVER CTP/S SERN COS.
EARLIER...
SFC COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KELM...SSW TO KFIG AND KJST
AT 1830Z. HI RES VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUICK CLEARING
BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH JUST SCTD FLAT TO MDT CU TO THE WEST OF THE
RT 219 CORRIDOR.
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WARM AND SOUPY AIR WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCATTERED TSRA WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS
AS THEY MOVE INTO AN AREA OF HIGH MU CAPE EXCEEDING 2000
J/KG...AND A POOL OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE.
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASING INTENSITY TREND OF THE
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS
AND TWD THE SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH PWATS...COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE CAPE...IMPLY THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
AND ADJACENT SERN PA. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF TSRA TO MOVE QUICKLY NE ACROSS
YORK...LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES THROUGH 23Z...WITH LOCALIZED
2-3 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN OUR CURRENT FFG VALUES...THE SLOW/STEADY EWD PROGRESS OF
TSRA LINE SEGMENTS ON THE HIGH RES MODELS...AND THE ANTICIPATED
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL TSRA...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR LIKELY THAT FCST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRESENT A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE THIS
AFTN...AND THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 22-24Z.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE L-M70S
OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES....TO THE U70S AND L80S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN A LITTLE /UNTIL AFTER 06Z/ AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR SE COUNTIES AND BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE MEAN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WELL INTO THE NIGHT DOWN
THERE. ELSEWHERE...THE WELCOME ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING GENERALLY SCT HIGH BASED STRATO
CU OR ALTO CU TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES DURING THE
EVENING.
MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE WED WILL BE IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
CENTRAL ZONES...AND LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR OUT TO THE ENE AND BECOME LOCATED OVER
SRN QUEBEC BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WED.
THE TRAILING MID-UPPER LVL THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES INCREASING TO AROUND 6C/KM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GRT LKS AND NOSE INTO OUR WRN ZONES LATE. THE COOL AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AMT OF CU
ACROSS THE NW MTNS WED...WITH A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF MORNING/MIDDAY SUNSHINE WITH MIX WITH SOME
MDT CU ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY.
THE LARGEST NEGATIVE 925/850 TEMPS ANOMALIES IN GEFS DATA ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE M/U60S
EXPECTED. READINGS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR 80F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL RETREAT INTO NORTHEASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MASS FIELDS LOOK VERY
SIMILAR AMONG ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE DRAGGING A LINGERING UPPER LVL TROF THAT
IS JUST WEST OF PA...EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOC NEG PWAT ANOMALIES SHOULD INITIALLY PROVIDE
CENTRAL PA WITH A PERIOD OF FAIR WX THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHC OF
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME DISPARITY ON THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE OUTPUT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SO HAVE
BACKED UP SLIGHTLY ON POPS...BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN AFTN
AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA. AFTER A COOL MIDWEEK...MEAN TEMPS SHOULD
CREEP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DUE TO WARMER
NIGHTS.
A FAIR AMT OF CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGHS BLW NORMAL. POPS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST
LOOKS UNSETTLED...WITH CENTRAL PA REMAINING ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
UPPER TROF WITH DAILY OPPORTUNITY/S FOR SHOWERS/TSRA. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR THE LONG TERM IS HOW THE TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
INTO NEXT WEEK. A STRONG 600 (DAM) HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION.
850MB TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE 14C RANGE AND
POSSIBLE INCREASING INTO THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A WARMER PERIOD...AND WITH ZONAL FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER KEEPING STORMS FROM GETTING GOING IN
THE MDT/LNS AREA. OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST EAST OF IPT.
THESE LIFTING NE. MOST OF THE AREA NOW VFR. COLD FRONT STILL
TO THE WEST. ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL PERSIST FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH 22Z ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY /INVOF KIPT/...AND THROUGH
00Z-02Z WED IN THE KMDT AND KLNS AREAS AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT.
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
VFR TO THE WEST OF THE CFRONT /ALONG A KBFD...TO KJST LINE/ WILL
ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR WILL COVER MUCH OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY BY 02-04Z WED.
OUTLOOK...
WED- FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSS AFTERNOON TSRA WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
529 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER LAKE HURON WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ITS SOUTHWARD
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN PA THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KELM...SSW TO KFIG AND KJST
AT 1830Z. HI RES VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUICK CLEARING
BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH JUST SCTD FLAT TO MDT CU TO THE WEST OF THE
RT 219 CORRIDOR.
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WARM AND SOUPY AIR WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCATTERED TSRA WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS
AS THEY MOVE INTO AN AREA OF HIGH MU CAPE EXCEEDING 2000
J/KG...AND A POOL OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE.
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASING INTENSITY TREND OF THE
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS
AND TWD THE SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH PWATS...COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE CAPE...IMPLY THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
AND ADJACENT SERN PA. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF TSRA TO MOVE QUICKLY NE ACROSS
YORK...LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES THROUGH 23Z...WITH LOCALIZED
2-3 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN OUR CURRENT FFG VALUES...THE SLOW/STEADY EWD PROGRESS OF
TSRA LINE SEGMENTS ON THE HIGH RES MODELS...AND THE ANTICIPATED
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL TSRA...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR LIKELY THAT FCST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRESENT A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE THIS
AFTN...AND THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 22-24Z.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE L-M70S
OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES....TO THE U70S AND L80S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN A LITTLE /UNTIL AFTER 06Z/ AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR SE COUNTIES AND BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE MEAN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WELL INTO THE NIGHT DOWN
THERE. ELSEWHERE...THE WELCOME ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING GENERALLY SCT HIGH BASED STRATO
CU OR ALTO CU TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES DURING THE
EVENING.
MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE WED WILL BE IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
CENTRAL ZONES...AND LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR OUT TO THE ENE AND BECOME LOCATED OVER
SRN QUEBEC BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WED.
THE TRAILING MID-UPPER LVL THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES INCREASING TO AROUND 6C/KM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GRT LKS AND NOSE INTO OUR WRN ZONES LATE. THE COOL AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AMT OF CU
ACROSS THE NW MTNS WED...WITH A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF MORNING/MIDDAY SUNSHINE WITH MIX WITH SOME
MDT CU ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY.
THE LARGEST NEGATIVE 925/850 TEMPS ANOMALIES IN GEFS DATA ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE M/U60S
EXPECTED. READINGS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR 80F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL RETREAT INTO NORTHEASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MASS FIELDS LOOK VERY
SIMILAR AMONG ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE DRAGGING A LINGERING UPPER LVL TROF THAT
IS JUST WEST OF PA...EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOC NEG PWAT ANOMALIES SHOULD INITIALLY PROVIDE
CENTRAL PA WITH A PERIOD OF FAIR WX THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHC OF
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME DISPARITY ON THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE OUTPUT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SO HAVE
BACKED UP SLIGHTLY ON POPS...BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN AFTN
AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA. AFTER A COOL MIDWEEK...MEAN TEMPS SHOULD
CREEP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DUE TO WARMER
NIGHTS.
A FAIR AMT OF CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGHS BLW NORMAL. POPS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST
LOOKS UNSETTLED...WITH CENTRAL PA REMAINING ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
UPPER TROF WITH DAILY OPPORTUNITY/S FOR SHOWERS/TSRA. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR THE LONG TERM IS HOW THE TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
INTO NEXT WEEK. A STRONG 600 (DAM) HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION.
850MB TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE 14C RANGE AND
POSSIBLE INCREASING INTO THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A WARMER PERIOD...AND WITH ZONAL FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER KEEPING STORMS FROM GETTING GOING IN
THE MDT/LNS AREA. OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST EAST OF IPT.
THESE LIFTING NE. MOST OF THE AREA NOW VFR. COLD FRONT STILL
TO THE WEST. ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL PERSIST FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH 22Z ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY /INVOF KIPT/...AND THROUGH
00Z-02Z WED IN THE KMDT AND KLNS AREAS AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT.
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
VFR TO THE WEST OF THE CFRONT /ALONG A KBFD...TO KJST LINE/ WILL
ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR WILL COVER MUCH OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY BY 02-04Z WED.
OUTLOOK...
WED- FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSS AFTERNOON TSRA WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
421 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER LAKE HURON WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ITS SOUTHWARD
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN PA THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KELM...SSW TO KFIG AND KJST
AT 1830Z. HI RES VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUICK CLEARING
BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH JUST SCTD FLAT TO MDT CU TO THE WEST OF THE
RT 219 CORRIDOR.
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WARM AND SOUPY AIR WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCATTERED TSRA WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS
AS THEY MOVE INTO AN AREA OF HIGH MU CAPE EXCEEDING 2000
J/KG...AND A POOL OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE.
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASING INTENSITY TREND OF THE
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS
AND TWD THE SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH PWATS...COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE CAPE...IMPLY THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
AND ADJACENT SERN PA. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF TSRA TO MOVE QUICKLY NE ACROSS
YORK...LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES THROUGH 23Z...WITH LOCALIZED
2-3 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN OUR CURRENT FFG VALUES...THE SLOW/STEADY EWD PROGRESS OF
TSRA LINE SEGMENTS ON THE HIGH RES MODELS...AND THE ANTICIPATED
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL TSRA...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR LIKELY THAT FCST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRESENT A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE THIS
AFTN...AND THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 22-24Z.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE L-M70S
OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES....TO THE U70S AND L80S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN A LITTLE /UNTIL AFTER 06Z/ AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR SE COUNTIES AND BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE MEAN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WELL INTO THE NIGHT DOWN
THERE. ELSEWHERE...THE WELCOME ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING GENERALLY SCT HIGH BASED STRATO
CU OR ALTO CU TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES DURING THE
EVENING.
MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE WED WILL BE IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
CENTRAL ZONES...AND LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR OUT TO THE ENE AND BECOME LOCATED OVER
SRN QUEBEC BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WED.
THE TRAILING MID-UPPER LVL THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES INCREASING TO AROUND 6C/KM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GRT LKS AND NOSE INTO OUR WRN ZONES LATE. THE COOL AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AMT OF CU
ACROSS THE NW MTNS WED...WITH A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF MORNING/MIDDAY SUNSHINE WITH MIX WITH SOME
MDT CU ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY.
THE LARGEST NEGATIVE 925/850 TEMPS ANOMALIES IN GEFS DATA ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE M/U60S
EXPECTED. READINGS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR 80F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL RETREAT INTO NORTHEASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MASS FIELDS LOOK VERY
SIMILAR AMONG ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE DRAGGING A LINGERING UPPER LVL TROF THAT
IS JUST WEST OF PA...EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOC NEG PWAT ANOMALIES SHOULD INITIALLY PROVIDE
CENTRAL PA WITH A PERIOD OF FAIR WX THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHC OF
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME DISPARITY ON THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE OUTPUT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SO HAVE
BACKED UP SLIGHTLY ON POPS...BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN AFTN
AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA. AFTER A COOL MIDWEEK...MEAN TEMPS SHOULD
CREEP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DUE TO WARMER
NIGHTS.
A FAIR AMT OF CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGHS BLW NORMAL. POPS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST
LOOKS UNSETTLED...WITH CENTRAL PA REMAINING ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
UPPER TROF WITH DAILY OPPORTUNITY/S FOR SHOWERS/TSRA. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR THE LONG TERM IS HOW THE TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
INTO NEXT WEEK. A STRONG 600 (DAM) HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION.
850MB TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE 14C RANGE AND
POSSIBLE INCREASING INTO THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A WARMER PERIOD...AND WITH ZONAL FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL PERSIST FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH 22Z ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY /INVOF KIPT/...AND THROUGH
00Z-02Z WED IN THE KMDT AND KLNS AREAS AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT.
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
VFR TO THE WEST OF THE CFRONT /ALONG A KBFD...TO KJST LINE/ WILL
ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR WILL COVER MUCH OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY BY 02-04Z WED.
OUTLOOK...
WED- FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSS AFTERNOON TSRA WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
312 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER LAKE HURON WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ITS SOUTHWARD
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN PA THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KELM...SSW TO KFIG AND KJST
AT 1830Z. HI RES VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUICK CLEARING
BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH JUST SCTD FLAT TO MDT CU TO THE WEST OF THE
RT 219 CORRIDOR.
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WARM AND SOUPY AIR WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCATTERED TSRA WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS
AS THEY MOVE INTO AN AREA OF HIGH MU CAPE EXCEEDING 2000
J/KG...AND A POOL OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE.
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASING INTENSITY TREND OF THE
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS
AND TWD THE SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH PWATS...COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE CAPE...IMPLY THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
AND ADJACENT SERN PA. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF TSRA TO MOVE QUICKLY NE ACROSS
YORK...LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES THROUGH 23Z...WITH LOCALIZED
2-3 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN OUR CURRENT FFG VALUES...THE SLOW/STEADY EWD PROGRESS OF
TSRA LINE SEGMENTS ON THE HIGH RES MODELS...AND THE ANTICIPATED
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL TSRA...IT DOESN/T
APPEAR LIKELY THAT FCST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRESENT A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ATTM.
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE THIS
AFTN...AND THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 22-24Z.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE L-M70S
OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES....TO THE U70S AND L80S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN A LITTLE /UNTIL AFTER 06Z/ AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR SE COUNTIES AND BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE MEAN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WELL INTO THE NIGHT DOWN
THERE. ELSEWHERE...THE WELCOME ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING GENERALLY SCT HIGH BASED STARTO
CU OR ALTO CU TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENIES DURING THE
EVENING.
MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE WED WILL BE IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS...MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
CENTRAL ZONES...AND LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR OUT TO THE ENE AND BECOME LOCATED OVER
SRN QUEBEC BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WED.
THE TRAILING MID-UPPER LVL THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES INCREASING TO AROUND 6C/KM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GRT LKS AND NOSE INTO OUR WRN ZONES LATE. THE COOL AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AMT OF CU
ACROSS THE NW MTNS WED...WITH A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF MORNING/MIDDAY SUNSHINE WITH MIX WITH SOME
MDT CU ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY.
THE LARGEST NEGATIVE 925/850 TEMPS ANOMALIES IN GEFS DATA ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE M/U60S
EXPECTED. READINGS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS
THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR 80F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MASS FIELDS LOOK VERY SIMILAR AMONG ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...ALL OF WHICH SHOW A LINGERING UPPER LVL TROF
JUST WEST OF PA OVR THE GRT LKS. SFC ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOC NEG
PWAT ANOMALIES SHOULD INITIALLY PROVIDE CENTRAL PA WITH A PERIOD
OF FAIR WX THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS HIGH DRIFTS
OFF THE COAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE CHC OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. BASED ON LATEST
CONSALL GUIDANCE...HAVE INTRODUCED THE CHC OF AFTN SHRA/TSRA
FRIDAY AFTN.
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST LOOKS UNSETTLED...AS CENTRAL PA WILL
REMAIN ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER TROF WITH DAILY OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS/TSRA. AFTER A COOL MIDWEEK...MEAN TEMPS SHOULD CREEP BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DUE TO WARMER NIGHTS. A
FAIR AMT OF CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGHS BLW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL PERSIST FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH 22Z ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY /INVOF KIPT/...AND THROUGH
00Z-02Z WED IN THE KMDT AND KLNS AREAS AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT.
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
VFR TO THE WEST OF THE CFRONT /ALONG A KBFD...TO KJST LINE/ WILL
ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR WILL COVER MUCH OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY BY 02-04Z WED.
OUTLOOK...
WED- FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSS AFTERNOON TSRA WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIG.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1239 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD.
THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE EARLY MORNING FROPA WILL BE
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE TO VEER OVERNIGHT. BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW...WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KTS. CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KACT BUT THE LIKELIHOOD WAS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY...BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014/
THE LONG-AWAITED COLD FRONT WAS MOVING TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURING FROM OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES INTO
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD BE SEEN UPSTREAM
WITH READINGS IN THE 50S AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
THE COLD FRONT SLOWS DOWN LATER THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HRRR AND TECH WRF INDICATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT 20-40 POPS
SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE-PALESTINE LINE. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH STRONGER COLD ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE LOW RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE A LULL IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE. LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 65-70 DEGREES WITHIN THE
DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 70-75 DEGREES ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH LIGHT ENE WINDS 5-10 MPH. SHOULD BE A NICE EVENING FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR TRANSITION DAY AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF
OUR NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO WILL HELP SURGE THE FIRST FRONT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER-
MID 90S OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO
THE WARM ADVECTION. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE
DAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WILL CARRY
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE RESULTANT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY THOSE AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. AN MCS IS HIGHLY PROBABLE WITH SOME THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
ENTER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ADDING A LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO
THE EQUATION. WE ARE MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. WE HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY
MCS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WITH STORMS CONTINUING DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF BOTH THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT. THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUING HIGH
CHANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE 5
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW MID JULY NORMALS WITH HIGHS 75-85 DEGREES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD DUE TO
THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES OR LOCALLY HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST YOU
GO. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT APPEARS DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH A LOWER THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALOFT NEAR 6 DEG/C.
THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH DAMPENS THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH A
WEAKER TROUGH SETTLED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER WEST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN
WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF A WEAKNESS SETTING UP OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR ISOLATED
RAIN CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES TO ADD RAIN CHANCES IN AT THIS TIME. WHAT WE ARE
CERTAIN OF IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 90S BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 70 90 73 84 / 20 10 10 70 70
WACO, TX 93 71 94 75 90 / 20 20 10 50 50
PARIS, TX 86 65 86 67 79 / 10 10 5 70 80
DENTON, TX 90 69 89 72 83 / 10 10 20 70 70
MCKINNEY, TX 89 69 89 72 82 / 10 10 10 70 70
DALLAS, TX 90 70 90 73 84 / 20 10 10 70 70
TERRELL, TX 89 68 89 71 84 / 20 10 10 70 70
CORSICANA, TX 90 70 90 73 87 / 20 10 10 60 60
TEMPLE, TX 94 73 94 75 92 / 30 30 10 40 40
MINERAL WELLS, TX 90 68 90 72 86 / 20 10 20 70 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER LAKE HURON. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ARE SPINNING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...INCLUDING ONE WAVE THAT IS
DROPPING SOUTH OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WAUTOMA TO DOOR COUNTY. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
THE UPPER PENINSULA SO WILL DROP PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING UPSTREAM...DRIER AIR IS PUNCHING SOUTH OVER
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT CLOUD COVER
LOOKS ROBUST OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FORECAST
CONCERNS INCLUDE SHOWER AND CLOUD TRENDS IN THIS PERIOD.
TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION WILL DROP
SE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER PENINSULA. MUCH OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS BY
MID-EVENING. CLOUDS LOOK TO TAKE A BIT LONGER HOWEVER...DUE TO
CYCLONIC FLOW...THERMAL TROUGHING...AND NORTH WINDS ORIGINATING FROM
A MOISTURE RICH AREA OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS KEEP LOW CLOUDS AROUND OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING TREND OVER THE EAST
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLEARING SHOULD PUSH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING THOUGH AS DRY AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS LOST. THE COMBO OF CLEARING SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL BE WARMER DUE
TO CLOUDS AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DESPITE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND MODERATING LOW LEVEL TEMPS...LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD CU FIELD
TO FORM BY LATE IN THE MORNING. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER.
MID-LEVEL CAPPING SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS FROM FORMING THOUGH. HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MIDDLE 70S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES ZONAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE JET BUT NONE OF
THEM SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE FACT
THAT THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH HERE YESTERDAY HAS MADE IT
NEARLY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SHUTTING OFF THE
FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TRIES TO
EDGE IT/S WAY INTO WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS JUST ENOUGH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY BUT THERE MIGHT BE A CAP TO KEEP ANY
CONVECTION FROM GOING. THERE MIGHT BE A NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT BUT TOO FAR AWAY TO FORECAST RIGHT
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE
LOTS OF CLOUDS TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 2500 TO 3500 FEET WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ABOVE. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT
IF CLOUDS CLEAR QUICK ENOUGH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
242 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
AS OF 230 PM...MAIN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER LAKE
HURON...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED BY
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RAP 500 MB HEIGHTS.
PIECES OF ENERGY HAVE BEEN ROTATING THE PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH
TODAY...HELPING TO FUEL ALTOSTRATUS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S...ANOTHER FALL LIKE DAY FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD SLOWLY IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND THE THREAT FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG. SEVERAL POSITIVE
FACTORS GOING FOR THE VALLEY FOG:
1. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH LOWEST 1.5 KILOMETERS
2. RECENT WET CONDITIONS AND PEAK OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
3. COOLER...CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...BECOMING CLEAR THIS EVENING
4. FORECAST T/TD DEPRESSIONS AROUND 5F THIS EVENING
A FEW NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDE TIME OF YEAR /MID JULY NOT AS
FAVORABLE/ AS WELL SOME INDICATIONS THAT WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE MAY STAY ELEVATED AT AROUND 10 KTS. FINALLY...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS TODAY AND QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW QUICKLY WE
CLEAR OUT. REGARDLESS...FEEL THAT CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR A
MS AND WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY FOG EVENT...WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA. PLAN ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND A DRIER AIR MASS. MAX
READINGS LOOK TO BE 5 TO 10F BELOW NORMAL...OR IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AS IT
SLOWLY TRAVERSES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
ARE VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE...AND IN FACT THE
WIND FIELD IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE / LIGHT TO 700 MB /. WHILE THERE
WILL BE A DAY OF DRYING WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH
THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
A RIVER VALLEY FOG EVENT. INCREASED FOG COVERAGE ALONG THE MS AND
WISCONSIN RIVERS...AND THIS COULD BE A CLASSIC FOG EVENT WITH SOME
LONGER PERIODS OF DENSE FOG.
BY FRIDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND
THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW RESPONSE TO BEGIN. HIGHS WILL NUDGE
UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...APPROACHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY WEEKS END.
THE 15.12Z MODEL CYCLE FOLLOWED THE 15.00 GROUP TOWARD A
WARMER...DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS ALLOWS 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB...REACHING +12 TO
+16C...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST...BY THIS WEEKEND. EARLIER RUNS
THAT SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPPING THROUGH THE FLOW ARE NOW
GONE OR WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA...WITH JUST A WEAK
REFLECTION IN THE SURFACE OF A FRONT ATTEMPTING TO PASS BUT NEVER
MAKES IT TO THE AREA. WITH THE WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN LOOKING
MORE LIKELY...CONTINUED THE TREND OF REMOVING OR DIMINISHING
PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND NOW THE WEEKEND IS
DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES
AS WELL GIVEN MORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
ANOMALOUSLY COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MVFR/VFR
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS
THE REGION. LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS/SHOWERS TO ERODE/DISSIPATE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT FARTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD
ONTARIO CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT...SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MORE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FOR WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG TO OCCUR. RIVER VALLEY
AREAS INCLUDING KLSE TAF SITE LOOK MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AT THIS POINT.
CONFIDENCE OF FOG OCCURRING DIRECTLY AT THE KLSE AIRPORT IS
MEDIUM. TRICKY PART WILL BE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND WEAK
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. THIS MAY MITIGATE FOG FORMATION SOME. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON IFR/LIFR POTENTIAL AT KLSE. WILL
PASS THIS CONCERN TO THE EVENING FORECASTER TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR
THE ISSUANCE OF THE 00/06Z TAFS. KRST LOOKS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014
RECORD COOL HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY/TONIGHT AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
FOR LA CROSSE...
TODAY....FORECAST HIGH 71. RECORD 68 IN 1962
TONIGHT...FORECAST LOW 51. RECORD 49 IN 1912
FOR ROCHESTER...
TODAY....FORECAST HIGH 67. RECORD 67 IN 1962
TONIGHT...FORECAST LOW 50. RECORD 44 IN 1933
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION.....DAS
CLIMATE......AJ/RRS/ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
456 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST LARAMIE
COUNTY AND INTO LARIMER COUNTY IN COLORADO. RECEIVED SOME PEA
SIZED HAIL REPORTS SOUTH OF LARAMIE WHEN THESE STORMS MOVED INTO
ALBANY COUNTY EARLIER. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG INTERSTATE 25 STRETCHING FROM CHEYENNE TO
WHEATLAND. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG
THROUGH THE EVENING AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 50-55 KTS. WOULD
LIKE TO SEE THESE STORM CELLS BECOME MORE ISOLATED BEFORE GETTING
TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE SVR THREAT. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AGAIN ACROSS LARAMIE AND ALBANY
COUNTIES AFTER THIS STORM CLUSTER MOVES THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ANY INITIATION OF CELLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO AN UNSTABLE AND SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. WILL KEEP THE SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDS THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING.
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER JET TO THE SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AT SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF QPF
(0.25-0.75 INCHES) ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO LEFT
HEAVY RAIN IN THE FCST. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
MULTICELL STORMS MOVING FROM CONVERSE COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
PLATTE COUNTY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FROM
02-07Z. THE MODELS ARE LIKELY KEYING IN ON AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS COULD
BE SOME MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
SHORTWAVE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z WED. COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION ON WED MORNING SO TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 10-15
DEGREES COOLER. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE A GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER...THE STRONG TO SVR
THREAT WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
ON WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON THURS AFTN. THIS
WILL BE THE START OF A WELCOME BREAK FROM STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
A TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A STRONG UPPER HIGH FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN
EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY THOUGH WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH MAY
HINDER CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL TURN VERY WARM TO
HOT SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 700MB TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND 15-17C ACROSS THE CWA DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 453 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW COULD BRING LOWER CEILINGS TO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...IMPACTING KSNY AND KIBM AS WELL AS HERE AT KCYS.
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONCE
AGAIN
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TO
THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EXIST ON FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AS A
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
352 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST LARAMIE
COUNTY AND INTO LARIMER COUNTY IN COLORADO. RECEIVED SOME PEA
SIZED HAIL REPORTS SOUTH OF LARAMIE WHEN THESE STORMS MOVED INTO
ALBANY COUNTY EARLIER. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG INTERSTATE 25 STRETCHING FROM CHEYENNE TO
WHEATLAND. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG
THROUGH THE EVENING AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 50-55 KTS. WOULD
LIKE TO SEE THESE STORM CELLS BECOME MORE ISOLATED BEFORE GETTING
TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE SVR THREAT. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AGAIN ACROSS LARAMIE AND ALBANY
COUNTIES AFTER THIS STORM CLUSTER MOVES THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ANY INITIATION OF CELLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO AN UNSTABLE AND SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. WILL KEEP THE SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDS THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING.
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER JET TO THE SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AT SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF QPF
(0.25-0.75 INCHES) ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO LEFT
HEAVY RAIN IN THE FCST. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
MULTICELL STORMS MOVING FROM CONVERSE COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
PLATTE COUNTY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FROM
02-07Z. THE MODELS ARE LIKELY KEYING IN ON AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS COULD
BE SOME MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
SHORTWAVE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z WED. COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION ON WED MORNING SO TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 10-15
DEGREES COOLER. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE A GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER...THE STRONG TO SVR
THREAT WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
ON WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THURS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON THURS AFTN. THIS
WILL BE THE START OF A WELCOME BREAK FROM STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
A TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A STRONG UPPER HIGH FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN
EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY THOUGH WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH MAY
HINDER CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL TURN VERY WARM TO
HOT SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 700MB TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND 15-17C ACROSS THE CWA DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS
OF THE PLAINS THROUGH EVENING. ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBYS IN STORMS.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH SOME MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING. SOME IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY WEDS MORNING OVER THE PLAINS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE TO
THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EXIST ON FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AS A
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1147 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
SVR POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTN AND EVENING
FOR AREAS NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE. SFC WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF CARBON COUNTY. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR (WHICH IS ABOUT 50 KTS). THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SVR STORMS WILL LIKELY STRETCH FROM EASTERN ALBANY COUNTY EASTWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF PLATTE...GOSHEN...AND LARAMIE COUNTIES. THIS IS
WHERE THE RUC SHOWS THE AXIS OF HIGHEST CAPE UP TO AROUND 1500
J/KG BY 22Z. INSTABILITY RAPIDLY DROPS OFF INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING
SHOWS THE NEXT FORECAST CONCERN MOVING ACROSS MONTANA...WHICH IS A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPINNING OVER NORTHERN IDAHO
AND WESTERN MONTANA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THEN EVENTUALLY RAPIDLY DIGGING
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN WYOMING BY TONIGHT.
LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY. WITH
DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINED WITH
DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR
NORTH...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA AS WELL LATER TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. SEVERE TSTORMS
WILL BE THE FIRST CONCERN OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY THE MIDDLE OF
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE DEVELOPS
ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING AND GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHEAR ON TOP OF THE 0-6 KM SHEAR BETWEEN 4O
TO 55 KNOTS ALREADY PROGGED FROM CENTRAL WYOMING SE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...A RELATIVELY STRONG JET
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND STALL NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS TODAY AND INTO LATE THIS
EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL GIVEN 0-2 KM
SHEAR BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA APPEARS TO
BE THE HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING WEST OF A LINE FROM SIDNEY NEBRASKA
TO LUSK WYOMING...INCLUDING THE LARAMIE RANGE.
FOR TONIGHT...FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS
THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS SHOW RESPECTABLE QPF
VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE MANY LOCATIONS DO
NOT NEED THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF I25. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS AT THIS TIME. A FEW MODELS SHOW IT AS FAR
WEST AS THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH OTHERS SHOWING THE BAND ALONG THE
PINE RIDGE. INCREASED POP TONIGHT BETWEEN 50 TO 70 PERCENT ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND ADDED WORDING FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS ALL MODELS SHOW THE FEATURE REMAINING OVER CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN WYOMING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT TSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE DUE TO COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
MODELS INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR ALOFT TO PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST A FEW TSTORMS FROM
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST
WELL NORTH OF I80.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND TEMPORARY BREAK FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF AND GFS
ARE BOTH SHOWING A MID SUMMER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE THIS WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S AND 90S FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND SOME 60S INTO THE
PLAINS.
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE BUT SHOULD SEE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE
WORK ITS WAY UP FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECTING AT LEAST A COUPLE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS A FEW DAYS
WITH LESSER CHANCES INTO THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN SOMETIME EARLY TO MID NEXT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS
OF THE PLAINS THROUGH EVENING. ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBYS IN STORMS.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH SOME MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING. SOME IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY WEDS MORNING OVER THE PLAINS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FINCH
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...TJT