Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/14/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1133 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014
ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE
25 CORRIDOR. VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WELL OVER AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS AND
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION SHOULD START BY EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO INTO HE REGION. OF COURSE...HAVE CONCERNS FOR THE
WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR...BUT OTHER AREAS COULD GET FLOOD RAINS AS
WELL. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...STORMS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL PROPAGATE TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING...BUT BUFKIT SOUNDING CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE CONCERNS
THAT SOME HEAVIER RAIN COULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
DURING THE EVENING. IF BATCH OF HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...IT WILL BE WELCOMED RAIN FOR
THE AREAS UNDER SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT. GIVEN THE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND DIFFICULTY IN PINPOINTING A SPECIFIC LOCATION FOR
HEAVIER RAIN...WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME. --PGW--
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014
A SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WL SEND A
FRONT INTO NE CO...WHICH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO SERN
CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY THIS EARLY MORNING
THERE ARE SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE CONTDVD...SO WL HAVE SOME ISOLD
POPS IN THAT AREA FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HI RES FORECAST
MODELS THEN SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVR THE MTNS IN THE LATE
MORNING HRS. THE PCPN THEN SPREADS OVR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25
CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN OVR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND IN THE EVENING HOURS. THE WRF AND RAP
SHOW EL PASO COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NRN AND WRN PORTIONS POTENTIALLY
GETTING HIT WITH HEAVY RAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
EXPECTED TO ONLY BE AROUND 5 KTS...THAT WOULD LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. AREA BURN SCARS WL BE A CONCERN
IF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF ERN EL PASO COUNTY
THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST EVENING.
IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO THE RATON
MESA AREA...THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL MAY SHIFT TO THAT AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING. THE WRF THEN DECREASES OR END MOST OF THE PCPN
AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE NAM12 HAS COME IN WITH
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE WET AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTNS AND THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE NAM IS SHOWING AROUND
2.5 INCHES OF PCPN OVR THE WET MTNS IN THE PERIOD FROM 00Z-12Z
SUN...WITH ABOUT 1-1.5 INCHES OVR SW PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND WRN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES...WITH MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 15 KTS. THE
GFS ALSO PEGS THE SANGRES AND WET AS AN AREA THAT COULD SEE SOME
HEAVIER RAIN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER ITS AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM. SINCE THE HRRR AND RAP DO NOT GO OUT THROUGH
THE NIGHT PERIOD YET...WILL JUST GO WITH SOME SCT POPS OVERNIGHT
OVER THE SANGRES AND WETS AND NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LET THE
NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE THE HI RES MODEL DATA AS IT COMES IN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH THE NEXT RUN OF THE NAM.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014
...COOL AND WET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF WORK WEEK...
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDING BACK
ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND GREAT BASIN AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST MODELS ARE
INDICATING SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING THE
MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME BEING SHUNTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA WITH SOME DRIER AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEVELOPING NORTHERLY
FLOW SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER....PRECIP
WATER...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH READINGS
BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES AND 1.5 INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THERE COULD BE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACKS INTO EASTERN COLORADO. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALONG
WITH STRONG SOLAR HEATING AND SOME INCREASED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
PASSING SHORT WAVE...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED STORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE
ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY SLOW MOVING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LEADING TO POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS AREA BURN SCARS. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH SHEAR ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF WORK WEEK WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE PERSISTING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND GREAT BASIN AS THE
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DIGS
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. DRIER AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK INTO WESTERN COLORADO...THOUGH PRECIP WATER
LOOKS TO REMAIN HIGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS
WITH CONTINUED MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS STATES. AGAIN WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...GENERALLY DIURNAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH BEST COVERAGE
OVER AND NEAR THE MTS. WITH THE MODERATE FLOW ALOFT...STORMS WILL BE
MOVING...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH
FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND THE MOIST AND COOL UPSLOPE FLOW...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW TO WELL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IN THE OFFING INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AS
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS
TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST...WITH BEST
COVERAGE REMAINING ACROSS THE MTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014
VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY.
KCOS AND KPUB...THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE VICINITY OF KCOS AROUND 2000Z AND KPUB AROUND 2100Z. THE
THREAT OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE WIDE
RANGE OF TIMES FOR CONVECTION..DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE TEMPO
GROUPS AT THIS TIME. WITH MOST LOWER LEVELS...BELIEVE THE MAIN
THREATS FROM STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WHICH CAN LOCALLY REDUCE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS BEING DOWNSLOPE AT BOTH SITES...DECIDED TO HAVE
VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT INSTEAD OF MVFR.
KALS...MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. ANTICIPATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE TEMPO GROUP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTION WILL END MY MID EVENING WITH VFR
OVERNIGHT. --PGW--
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>088.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PGW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1042 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014
ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE
25 CORRIDOR. VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WELL OVER AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS AND
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION SHOULD START BY EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO INTO HE REGION. OF COURSE...HAVE CONCERNS FOR THE
WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR...BUT OTHER AREAS COULD GET FLOOD RAINS AS
WELL. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...STORMS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL PROPAGATE TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING...BUT BUFKIT SOUNDING CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE CONCERNS
THAT SOME HEAVIER RAIN COULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
DURING THE EVENING. IF BATCH OF HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...IT WILL BE WELCOMED RAIN FOR
THE AREAS UNDER SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT. GIVEN THE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND DIFFICULTY IN PINPOINTING A SPECIFIC LOCATION FOR
HEAVIER RAIN...WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME. --PGW--
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014
A SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WL SEND A
FRONT INTO NE CO...WHICH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO SERN
CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY THIS EARLY MORNING
THERE ARE SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE CONTDVD...SO WL HAVE SOME ISOLD
POPS IN THAT AREA FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HI RES FORECAST
MODELS THEN SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVR THE MTNS IN THE LATE
MORNING HRS. THE PCPN THEN SPREADS OVR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25
CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN OVR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND IN THE EVENING HOURS. THE WRF AND RAP
SHOW EL PASO COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NRN AND WRN PORTIONS POTENTIALLY
GETTING HIT WITH HEAVY RAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
EXPECTED TO ONLY BE AROUND 5 KTS...THAT WOULD LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. AREA BURN SCARS WL BE A CONCERN
IF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF ERN EL PASO COUNTY
THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST EVENING.
IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO THE RATON
MESA AREA...THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL MAY SHIFT TO THAT AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING. THE WRF THEN DECREASES OR END MOST OF THE PCPN
AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE NAM12 HAS COME IN WITH
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE WET AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTNS AND THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE NAM IS SHOWING AROUND
2.5 INCHES OF PCPN OVR THE WET MTNS IN THE PERIOD FROM 00Z-12Z
SUN...WITH ABOUT 1-1.5 INCHES OVR SW PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND WRN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES...WITH MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 15 KTS. THE
GFS ALSO PEGS THE SANGRES AND WET AS AN AREA THAT COULD SEE SOME
HEAVIER RAIN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER ITS AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM. SINCE THE HRRR AND RAP DO NOT GO OUT THROUGH
THE NIGHT PERIOD YET...WILL JUST GO WITH SOME SCT POPS OVERNIGHT
OVER THE SANGRES AND WETS AND NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LET THE
NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE THE HI RES MODEL DATA AS IT COMES IN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH THE NEXT RUN OF THE NAM.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014
...COOL AND WET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF WORK WEEK...
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDING BACK
ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND GREAT BASIN AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST MODELS ARE
INDICATING SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING THE
MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME BEING SHUNTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA WITH SOME DRIER AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEVELOPING NORTHERLY
FLOW SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER....PRECIP
WATER...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH READINGS
BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES AND 1.5 INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THERE COULD BE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACKS INTO EASTERN COLORADO. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALONG
WITH STRONG SOLAR HEATING AND SOME INCREASED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
PASSING SHORT WAVE...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED STORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE
ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY SLOW MOVING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LEADING TO POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS AREA BURN SCARS. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH SHEAR ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF WORK WEEK WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE PERSISTING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND GREAT BASIN AS THE
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DIGS
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. DRIER AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK INTO WESTERN COLORADO...THOUGH PRECIP WATER
LOOKS TO REMAIN HIGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS
WITH CONTINUED MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS STATES. AGAIN WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...GENERALLY DIURNAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH BEST COVERAGE
OVER AND NEAR THE MTS. WITH THE MODERATE FLOW ALOFT...STORMS WILL BE
MOVING...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH
FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND THE MOIST AND COOL UPSLOPE FLOW...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW TO WELL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IN THE OFFING INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AS
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS
TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST...WITH BEST
COVERAGE REMAINING ACROSS THE MTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014
COULD SEE SOME STRATUS THIS MORNING AT KCOS AND KPUB...OTHERWISE
EXPECTED MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RAIN. KALS SHOULD GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT IT THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE AREA...THERE COULD BE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS A RESULT OF HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>088.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PGW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1036 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. DEW POINTS ARE
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS 60S.
WATER VAPOR SHOWING SLIGHT DRYING AT THE UPPER LEVELS...SO EXPECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO REMAIN IN THE INCH TO 1.25 RANGE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DIFFICULT TO TELL FOR SURE...BUT MAY BE A WEAK
WAVE SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL HELP
TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL LIMIT HEATING. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRST FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS...AND THEN SPREAD EAST TO SOUTHEAST AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES KICK OFF ADDITIONAL STORMS.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT STORMS TO
MOVE EAS TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MULTIPLE
STORMS OR STORMS REGENERATING OVER THE SAME AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING.
HOWEVER IT MAY ONLY TAKE ONE STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOOD IN
FLOOD PRONE AREAS. THE WIND PROFILE FAVORS A FEW BACK BUILDING
STORMS. PLUS THE AND HRRR DOES SHOW SOME REGENERATION AND TRAINING
OF STORMS. WILL HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE DENVER AREA AND
SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND HELP BRING
CONVECTION TO END EARLIER TONIGHT AND ALSO LOWER THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING. TODAY IS LOOKING MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY. THERE ARE A FEW SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT MAY LEAD TO AN
INCREASED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS STILL RUNNING AROUND 1.25 INCHES. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT
UP INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS...WHICH MEANS THE WARM CLOUD
LAYER WILL BE INCREASED TO AROUND 5000 FEET TODAY ENHANCING RAIN
EFFICIENCY. STEERING WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BECOME A BIT
STRONGER BY AFTERNOON...FROM THE WNW AT 10-15 MPH. HOWEVER THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST...A BIT BEHIND THE
STORM...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF BACKBUILDING
RESULTING IN A SLOWER EFFECTIVE MOTION. CAPES SHOULD WIND UP IN
THE 800-1600 J/KG RANGE ON THE PLAINS...ENOUGH FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS...WHILE SHEAR SHOULD BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.
SO IN GENERAL IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN...BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. OF COURSE THE
THREAT IS HIGHER FOR THE FOOTHILLS BURN/FLOOD DAMAGE AREAS...URBAN
AREAS AND PLACES THAT GOT SIGNIFICANT RAIN LAST NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE FOOTHILLS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INITIALLY...THEN TURNING INTO ONE
OR MORE CLUSTERS MOVING MORE SOUTHERLY BY EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE NORTHEAST CORNER TO MISS OUT AS IT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
COOL AND THE STORM MOTION MAY DRIVE EVERYTHING SOUTH OF THERE. WE
ALREADY HAVE A GRADIENT DRAWN LIKE THAT. IF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DISSIPATE ENOUGH IT WOULD GET A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST AND
CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WOULD LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL COUPLE WITH THE DIURNAL CONVECTION TO BRING
THE PEAK ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH A
LITTLE DRYING COMING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014
ON MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEVADA/UTAH WITH
A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NERN CO. A SYSTEM PASSING TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE NERN PLAINS.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TSTMS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS
AND PALMER DIVIDE...WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
STATIONARY. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 0.90 INCHES AT DENVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH SFC BASED CAPES AROUND 350 J/KG. STORM MOTIONS
PRETTY DECENT...20-25 KTS...SO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE BRIEF. A
SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND WASH OUT
ACROSS NERN CO ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...ANOTHER SURGE AND
CORRESPONDING UPSLOPE WILL BRING WITH IT A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH A LESSENING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014
LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY RISE AND BURN OFF BY 18Z. CEILINGS WILL BE
ABOVE 1500 TO 2500 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE DENVER
AIRPORTS TODAY SOMETIME BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z. HEAVY RAIN...HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014
SLOW MOVING STORMS IN A MOIST AIRMASS WILL AGAIN HAVE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN TODAY. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING. THERE MAY BE A FEW CASES IN WHICH STORMS STALL AND
PRODUCE EVEN HEAVIER RAIN OVER A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE WITH THE INITIAL STORMS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS.
OVERALL THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST ON SUNDAY WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AS A
RESULT...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE STORM
MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 MPH...WHICH SHOULD HELP
OFFSET THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT THREAT
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE.
CONSEQUENTLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
CONCERN.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ036-039>041.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...COOPER/GIMMESTAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
441 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014
A SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WL SEND A
FRONT INTO NE CO...WHICH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO SERN
CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY THIS EARLY MORNING
THERE ARE SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE CONTDVD...SO WL HAVE SOME ISOLD
POPS IN THAT AREA FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HI RES FORECAST
MODELS THEN SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVR THE MTNS IN THE LATE
MORNING HRS. THE PCPN THEN SPREADS OVR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25
CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN OVR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND IN THE EVENING HOURS. THE WRF AND RAP
SHOW EL PASO COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NRN AND WRN PORTIONS POTENTIALLY
GETTING HIT WITH HEAVY RAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
EXPECTED TO ONLY BE AROUND 5 KTS...THAT WOULD LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. AREA BURN SCARS WL BE A CONCERN
IF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF ERN EL PASO COUNTY
THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST EVENING.
IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO THE RATON
MESA AREA...THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL MAY SHIFT TO THAT AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING. THE WRF THEN DECREASES OR END MOST OF THE PCPN
AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE NAM12 HAS COME IN WITH
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE WET AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTNS AND THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE NAM IS SHOWING AROUND
2.5 INCHES OF PCPN OVR THE WET MTNS IN THE PERIOD FROM 00Z-12Z
SUN...WITH ABOUT 1-1.5 INCHES OVR SW PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND WRN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES...WITH MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 15 KTS. THE
GFS ALSO PEGS THE SANGRES AND WET AS AN AREA THAT COULD SEE SOME
HEAVIER RAIN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER ITS AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM. SINCE THE HRRR AND RAP DO NOT GO OUT THROUGH
THE NIGHT PERIOD YET...WILL JUST GO WITH SOME SCT POPS OVERNIGHT
OVER THE SANGRES AND WETS AND NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LET THE
NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE THE HI RES MODEL DATA AS IT COMES IN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH THE NEXT RUN OF THE NAM.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014
...COOL AND WET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF WORK WEEK...
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDING BACK
ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND GREAT BASIN AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST MODELS ARE
INDICATING SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING THE
MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME BEING SHUNTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA WITH SOME DRIER AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEVELOPING NORTHERLY
FLOW SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER....PRECIP
WATER...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH READINGS
BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES AND 1.5 INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THERE COULD BE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACKS INTO EASTERN COLORADO. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALONG
WITH STRONG SOLAR HEATING AND SOME INCREASED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
PASSING SHORT WAVE...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED STORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE
ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY SLOW MOVING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LEADING TO POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS AREA BURN SCARS. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH SHEAR ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF WORK WEEK WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE PERSISTING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND GREAT BASIN AS THE
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DIGS
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. DRIER AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK INTO WESTERN COLORADO...THOUGH PRECIP WATER
LOOKS TO REMAIN HIGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS
WITH CONTINUED MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS STATES. AGAIN WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...GENERALLY DIURNAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH BEST COVERAGE
OVER AND NEAR THE MTS. WITH THE MODERATE FLOW ALOFT...STORMS WILL BE
MOVING...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH
FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND THE MOIST AND COOL UPSLOPE FLOW...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW TO WELL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IN THE OFFING INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AS
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS
TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST...WITH BEST
COVERAGE REMAINING ACROSS THE MTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014
COULD SEE SOME STRATUS THIS MORNING AT KCOS AND KPUB...OTHERWISE
EXPECTED MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RAIN. KALS SHOULD GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT IT THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE AREA...THERE COULD BE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS A RESULT OF HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1059 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
THEN DISSIPATES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A SECONDARY FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH ARE
APPROACHING THE WESTERN AREAS BUT DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS AS STABILITY HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED. UPDATED THE
FORECAST FOR ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL
POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. HRRR SHOWING THIS LINE
OF SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE AS WELL AS IT TRACKS EAST WHICH IS IN LINE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.
WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A POTENTIAL MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL EPISODE MON AFT/EVE AS A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE REGION INTERACTS WITH DEEP MOISTURE...MODERATE
INSTABILITY...AND STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THERE IS ALWAYS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND PRECISE LOCATION WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY DUE TO WHERE THE STALLED
BOUNDARY RESIDES. THE BEST CHANCE AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC IN THE AFT...WITH THE CONVECTION WORKING
INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS EPISODE
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE TOWARD THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS TUE.
THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL
RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AN HOUR. UNIFORM WESTERLY FLOW MAY ALSO
ALLOW FOR TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON LATEST
FFG GUIDANCE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT BEING ISSUED AT THIS
TIME... BUT THIS DOES NOT MEAN THERE WILL NOT BE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IN ADDITION...THIS FIRST EVENT WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE
PRIMARY FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING ON TUE.
FURTHERMORE...UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS INDICATE LONG NARROW CAPES
SUPPORTING SLOW RISING UPDRAFTS...CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN
DEEP MOIST AIR MASSES. WHILE HAIL WILL NOT BE A THREAT...THE SHEAR
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL WET MICROBURSTS AND PERHAPS SMALL LINE SEGMENTS.
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70S. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE AROUND 70
MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THEIR PRECIP TIMING
SINCE YESTERDAY AND KEEPS RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TUE REMAINS WARM WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CONTINUING PWATS OF
1.5 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOWER THAN MONDAY WHILE THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING INCREASES. LESS CAPE IS IN PLACE BUT STILL ENOUGH MU
CAPE....AROUND 1500 J/KG INTERIOR...TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. SHEAR INCREASES SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AS WELL. CANNOT RULE
OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BUT THE THREAT IS LOW. WITH THE
RAIN THAT WILL FALL MONDAY...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES. TUESDAY
ALSO HAS GREATER LIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH UPPER JET
DYNAMICS WHICH WILL HELP CREATE THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST...POPS DECREASE WEST TO EAST WITH RAIN
LINGERING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPS DROP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES STARTING ON WED AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHEAST. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND REMAINS
THROUGH THE FRIDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH AND IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING OFFSHORE AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE NYC TERMINALS. THEY
SHOULD REACH THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 03Z-05Z. ANY STORMS THAT MOVE
OVER THE TERMINALS COULD SEE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR...GUSTY WINDS TO
40 KT AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF NYC
AROUND 06-07Z. FURTHER EAST...THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OVER AROUND
08Z.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY 180-210 DEGREES AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20KT RANGE. THE GUSTS SHOULD END
EVERYWHERE AROUND MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PROVIDE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
MORE STRATUS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS BEFORE IMPROVING ON MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS. STRONGER TSTMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY.
.THURSDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE LONG ISLAND SOUND...NY HARBOR AND BAYS OF LONG ISLAND
HAVE DECREASED BELOW 25 KTS. THERE COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST OR
TWO THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BUT HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT FOR THOSE AREAS. SEAS ARE SLOWLY RISING ON THE OCEAN AND
WILL KEEP SCA AS IT IS FOR THAT AREA.
HIGH SEAS MAY LINGER INTO MON NIGHT. A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW/FETCH OUT AHEAD OF MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW FOR
THE BUILDING SEAS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
A SECOND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS ON TUESDAY AND MOVES
THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP OCEAN SEAS ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WINDS ON ALL
WATERS SHOULD STAY BELOW 25 KT. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING MON AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ON
TUESDAY DUE TO THE RAINFALL THAT WILL FALL ON MONDAY AND THE
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FOR THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...CONTINUED
THE INCREASE IN QPF FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. THERE ARE SOME
OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATING HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCREASE MORE THAN FORECAST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES REMAIN HIGH DUE TO THE RECENT FULL MOON OF
SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS EVENING WILL BE SIMILAR
TO WHAT OCCURRED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES 2 TO 3 TENTHS
OF A FOOT ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. THIS WILL BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO JUST UNDER THE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE...AROUND 10 PM ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND
MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM SUNDAY IN THE LONG ISLAND SOUND. HOWEVER WITH A
STRENGTHENING...AND PERSIST ONSHORE FLOW TODAY ALONG WITH A
SOUTHEAST SWELL...TIDAL DEPARTURES MAY RUN A LITTLE HIGHER AND BRING
SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS...TO OR
JUST ABOVE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS TONIGHT. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRING AND THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
TONIGHT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LN/DW
NEAR TERM...LN/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...LN/DW
HYDROLOGY...LN/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1019 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
YIELDING PERIODS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THIS TIME ALONG WITH A HEAVY
RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
VERY DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH SHORT MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER NORTHEAST HAS SPARK SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAK BUT HOLD TOGETHER BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PWATS ARE 1.5-2 INCHES SO
A GOOD DOSING OF RAIN WILL FALL. THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATION AS
WELL AS THE REGION WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE DIDNT GET WORKED OVER BY
THE EVENING CONVECTION. THE RAP MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST
ESPECIALLY WHEN THE LLJ BEGINS TO DEVELOP. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING WITH HOW HIGH THE PWATS ARE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...LIKE A TROPICAL FEEL OUT THERE.
OTHERWISE LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S
WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND/OR EVENING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE***
***HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT***
AN INTERESTING SET UP IN PLACE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT DETAILS/TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN. APPEARS THE
MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/S AND
WHEN/WHERE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.
SOME OF OUR GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF MOST OF THE CONVECTION UNTIL VERY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WHEN THE MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND GETS THINGS GOING CLOSE TO 00Z IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.
OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS BREAKS OUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT EARLIER. WE ARE DEALING WITH A VERY
MOIST/UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND IT WON/T TAKE MUCH HEATING TO GET
SOME CONVECTION GOING. WE SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLIER
THAN SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.
OTHER THAN THE TIMING ISSUES...THE BIG UNCERTAINTY THAT NEEDS TO BE
RESOLVED IS THE AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSULATION. GIVEN PATTERN...EXPECT
TO SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND BUT A FEW PEEKS OF SUN WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE WILL HAVE 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...WE
CAN GET AWAY WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS AND STILL HAVE A SEVERE
THREAT...BUT MORE SUN WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE POTENTIAL. LOOKS LIKE
WE SHOULD SEE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOP...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF
25 TO 35 KNOTS AND PERHAPS LOCALLY OVER 40 KNOTS WHEN THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT...AND 70+ DEWPOINTS.
ALL IN ALL...DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE SHEAR
SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING. PERHAPS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL ENDS UP
IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY/SHEAR
OVERLAP...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ANYWHERE.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR HAIL WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS. IN
ADDITION...0 TO 1 KM HELICITY VALUES MAY EXCEED 100 ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S...AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
IT APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COME MORE WIDESPREAD. PWATS
ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AT 2+ INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BUT
THOUGH THERE IS MORE TIME TO GET A BETTER FEEL ON THE LOCATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* NUMEROUS SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
* SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ON
TUESDAY
* WARM AND VERY HUMID TUESDAY
* IMPROVING WEATHER WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS LATE THIS
WEEK
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH AN ANOMALOUS
TROUGH/CUTOFF COLD POOL MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK.
AS THIS TROUGH EVOLVES INTO THE LONG RANGE TIMEFRAME AND SHIFTS
SLOWLY SE...SURFACE WAVES AND TROUGHS WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN THE
DEVELOPING SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH TROPICAL AIR ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH PWATS
REMAINING IN THE 2.1 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALL
THIS...ALONG WITH THE SW FLOW IN PLACE...CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE
QPF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND 00Z THU IN THE FORECAST...
BUT THAT IS AERIAL COVERAGE. MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LOCALLY
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS.
12Z MODEL CYCLE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT IN VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS LOW PRES WAVE MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT LYING ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING RR QUADRANT OF 120 KT H3
JET PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUE INTO WED...ALONG WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY IN PLACE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SBCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG...AND EVEN 0-1 KM HELICITIES UP TO
AROUND 100 /M2. WILL SEE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. MAY ALSO SEE HAIL
AND...AGAIN...CAN NOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE SPINUP. HOWEVER...THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SOLAR INSULATION...AS THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND. SPC HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY PUSHING THE FRONT E DURING
WEDNESDAY AS THE H5 TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. SOME INSTABILITY WILL LINGER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
THERE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...AND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME HEAVY
RAINERS AS DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WED NIGHT.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
HUMIDITIES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH A POSSIBLE TRAILING H5
SHORT WAVE TRYING TO APPROACH LATE SAT OR SUN. HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS POSSIBLE FEATURE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGH SHOULD KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CLUSTER OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 06Z. WHILE
SOME SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL PLAIN...BEST SHOT FOR THUNDER
WILL BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. CAN NOT EVEN RULE OUT LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE...SCT SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP. WILL KEEP THINGS MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW AND SHOW
JUST MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN OUR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES...EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CAPE/ISLANDS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT....MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
PARTICULARLY TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...POSSIBLE ANYWHERE BUT BEST SHOT MAY
BE IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. BIGGEST THREATS TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AS FOR SKY/VSBYS
OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE DURING THE DAY
TUE EXCEPT LOWER CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR SOUTH COAST. CIGS/VSBYS
WILL DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUE NIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR TO
IFR DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE PROB OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 05Z.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH SCT TO
NUMEROUS TSTMS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS LIKELY. WILL SEE AREAS OF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIP. SOME GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS LIKELY TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL-E MA/RI. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ACROSS CT VALLEY TUE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY WED. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MIDDAY ACROSS CT VALLEY AND SLOWLY PUSHING E DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MVFR MAY LINGER INTO WED EVENING ACROSS E MA/RI. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE AREAS WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS E MA SHOULD IMPROVE BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR.
FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MANY OF THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH MAY BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET
ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS. THEREFORE...SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN
PLACE. MAY HAVE SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON MONDAY...BUT STILL
EXPECT THEM TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THEREFORE...DO NOT THINK
WILL NEED NEAR SHORE SCA HEADLINES. ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...SEAS
MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT. THEREFORE...OPTED TO JUST EXTEND THOSE SCA HEADLINES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MAY HAVE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. IN ADDITION...MORE FOG MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS ON THE OPEN
WATERS UP TO 5-6 FT. SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS WITH VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
REDUCED VSBYS. LOW CHANCE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS. VSBYS
ALSO REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATERS. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 KT. SEAS
REMAIN AOA 5 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS. STILL EXPECT HEAVY SHOWERS/SCT
TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS. WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT FROM W-E
WED NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG LINGERS ON THE EASTERN WATERS
THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN WATERS EARLY THU...OTHERWISE GOOD VSBYS. W
TO NW WINDS DIMINISHING...BUT SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS THU...WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE THU NIGHT. WILL SEE LIGHT S
TO SW WINDS FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WITH BOSTON AT 12.2 FEET AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVENT
ANY PROBLEMS ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST...WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY ISSUES. NO
COASTAL PRODUCTS ARE ANTICIPATED. WORST CASE SCENARIO IS VERY
MINOR SPLASH OVER WITH NO REAL IMPACTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
859 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
YIELDING PERIODS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THIS TIME ALONG WITH A HEAVY
RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
900 PM MESO UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CT VALLEY
REGION PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. THE STRONGEST STORM IS LOCATED IN
LITCHFIELD CO BEGINNING TO CROSS INTO HARTFORD CO. IN REGARDS TO
THE CURRENT ATMOSPHERE...WITH SUCH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OCCURRING
TODAY BELIEVE EAST OF THE I-91 IS VERY STABLE THANKS TO THE
ADVECTION OF THE MARINE AIR INFLUENCES. SO ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
GET PAST THE BERKS WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. THIS IS EVIDENT WITHIN
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS THE STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH SPRINGFIELD
HAS DECREASED IN STRENGTH. MUCAPE VALUES ARE BARELY HOLDING AT
500 J/KG ACROSS OUR WESTERN REGION WITH MAYBE THE EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS HELPING THESE STORMS WORK BEYOND I-91. BUT HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL BE NO MORE THEN SHOWERS BEYOND THE
CENTRAL HILLS EASTWARD.
OTHER MAIN FACTOR IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. SPC MESO
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT PWAT VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES DOWN INTO UPSTATE NY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AIMED TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...COULD SEE
RAIN FALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR. IN FACT A SPOTTER IN SOUTHWICK
MA HAS RECEIVED AN INCH OF RAINFALL WITHIN 50 MINS.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS
THAT ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS PA AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH IF THEY DO
HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION...BELIEVE THE ENERGY
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS CT THEN MASS WHICH IS WHERE THE RAP IS
DISPLAYING HIGHER CAPE VALUES AND BELOW 0 SHOWALTERS OVER THE NEXT
3 TO 5 HOURS. HOWEVER BELIEVE THE MARINE INFLUENCES WILL OVERCOME
THIS INSTABILITY SO THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD
BE VERY LIMITED WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
FINALLY THERE STILL WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK...THIS A RESULT OF SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
735 PM UPDATE...
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SW MA/N CENTRAL CT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SVR TSTM WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 11 PM OR
SOONER IF THREAT DIMINISHES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
OTHERWISE...NOTING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE S COAST AS NOTED ON 23Z
OBSERVATIONS WITH THE S-SW FLOW. TEMPS FALLING BACK THROUGH THE
70S WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOPING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS TEMPS FALL CLOSE TO THE
DEWPTS.
NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT DID DO A QUICK UPDATE TO
BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S AND IT WILL BE
MUGGY. IN ADDITION...SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE WITH BEST
CHANCE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND/OR EVENING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE***
***HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT***
AN INTERESTING SET UP IN PLACE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT DETAILS/TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN. APPEARS THE
MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/S AND
WHEN/WHERE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.
SOME OF OUR GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF MOST OF THE CONVECTION UNTIL VERY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WHEN THE MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND GETS THINGS GOING CLOSE TO 00Z IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.
OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS BREAKS OUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT EARLIER. WE ARE DEALING WITH A VERY
MOIST/UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND IT WON/T TAKE MUCH HEATING TO GET
SOME CONVECTION GOING. WE SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLIER
THAN SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.
OTHER THAN THE TIMING ISSUES...THE BIG UNCERTAINTY THAT NEEDS TO BE
RESOLVED IS THE AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSULATION. GIVEN PATTERN...EXPECT
TO SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND BUT A FEW PEEKS OF SUN WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE WILL HAVE 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...WE
CAN GET AWAY WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS AND STILL HAVE A SEVERE
THREAT...BUT MORE SUN WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE POTENTIAL. LOOKS LIKE
WE SHOULD SEE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOP...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF
25 TO 35 KNOTS AND PERHAPS LOCALLY OVER 40 KNOTS WHEN THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT...AND 70+ DEWPOINTS.
ALL IN ALL...DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE SHEAR
SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING. PERHAPS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL ENDS UP
IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY/SHEAR
OVERLAP...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ANYWHERE.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR HAIL WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS. IN
ADDITION...0 TO 1 KM HELICITY VALUES MAY EXCEED 100 ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S...AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
IT APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COME MORE WIDESPREAD. PWATS
ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AT 2+ INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BUT
THOUGH THERE IS MORE TIME TO GET A BETTER FEEL ON THE LOCATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* NUMEROUS SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
* SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ON
TUESDAY
* WARM AND VERY HUMID TUESDAY
* IMPROVING WEATHER WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS LATE THIS
WEEK
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH AN ANOMALOUS
TROUGH/CUTOFF COLD POOL MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK.
AS THIS TROUGH EVOLVES INTO THE LONG RANGE TIMEFRAME AND SHIFTS
SLOWLY SE...SURFACE WAVES AND TROUGHS WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN THE
DEVELOPING SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH TROPICAL AIR ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH PWATS
REMAINING IN THE 2.1 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALL
THIS...ALONG WITH THE SW FLOW IN PLACE...CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE
QPF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND 00Z THU IN THE FORECAST...
BUT THAT IS AERIAL COVERAGE. MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LOCALLY
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS.
12Z MODEL CYCLE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT IN VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS LOW PRES WAVE MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT LYING ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING RR QUADRANT OF 120 KT H3
JET PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUE INTO WED...ALONG WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY IN PLACE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SBCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG...AND EVEN 0-1 KM HELICITIES UP TO
AROUND 100 /M2. WILL SEE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. MAY ALSO SEE HAIL
AND...AGAIN...CAN NOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE SPINUP. HOWEVER...THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SOLAR INSULATION...AS THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND. SPC HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY PUSHING THE FRONT E DURING
WEDNESDAY AS THE H5 TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. SOME INSTABILITY WILL LINGER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
THERE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...AND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME HEAVY
RAINERS AS DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WED NIGHT.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
HUMIDITIES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH A POSSIBLE TRAILING H5
SHORT WAVE TRYING TO APPROACH LATE SAT OR SUN. HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS POSSIBLE FEATURE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGH SHOULD KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CLUSTER OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 06Z. WHILE
SOME SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL PLAIN...BEST SHOT FOR THUNDER
WILL BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. CAN NOT EVEN RULE OUT LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE...SCT SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP. WILL KEEP THINGS MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW AND SHOW
JUST MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN OUR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES...EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CAPE/ISLANDS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT....MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
PARTICULARLY TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...POSSIBLE ANYWHERE BUT BEST SHOT MAY
BE IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. BIGGEST THREATS TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AS FOR SKY/VSBYS
OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE DURING THE DAY
TUE EXCEPT LOWER CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR SOUTH COAST. CIGS/VSBYS
WILL DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUE NIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR TO
IFR DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE PROB OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 05Z.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH SCT TO
NUMEROUS TSTMS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS LIKELY. WILL SEE AREAS OF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIP. SOME GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS LIKELY TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL-E MA/RI. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ACROSS CT VALLEY TUE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY WED. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MIDDAY ACROSS CT VALLEY AND SLOWLY PUSHING E DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MVFR MAY LINGER INTO WED EVENING ACROSS E MA/RI. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE AREAS WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS E MA SHOULD IMPROVE BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR.
FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MANY OF THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH MAY BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET
ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS. THEREFORE...SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN
PLACE. MAY HAVE SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON MONDAY...BUT STILL
EXPECT THEM TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THEREFORE...DO NOT THINK
WILL NEED NEAR SHORE SCA HEADLINES. ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...SEAS
MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT. THEREFORE...OPTED TO JUST EXTEND THOSE SCA HEADLINES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MAY HAVE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. IN ADDITION...MORE FOG MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS ON THE OPEN
WATERS UP TO 5-6 FT. SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS WITH VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
REDUCED VSBYS. LOW CHANCE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS. VSBYS
ALSO REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATERS. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 KT. SEAS
REMAIN AOA 5 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS. STILL EXPECT HEAVY SHOWERS/SCT
TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS. WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT FROM W-E
WED NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG LINGERS ON THE EASTERN WATERS
THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN WATERS EARLY THU...OTHERWISE GOOD VSBYS. W
TO NW WINDS DIMINISHING...BUT SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS THU...WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE THU NIGHT. WILL SEE LIGHT S
TO SW WINDS FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WITH BOSTON AT 12.2 FEET AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVENT
ANY PROBLEMS ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST...WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY ISSUES. NO
COASTAL PRODUCTS ARE ANTICIPATED. WORST CASE SCENARIO IS VERY
MINOR SPLASH OVER WITH NO REAL IMPACTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
746 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
YIELDING PERIODS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THIS TIME ALONG WITH A HEAVY
RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
735 PM UPDATE...
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SW MA/N CENTRAL CT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SVR TSTM WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 11 PM OR
SOONER IF THREAT DIMINISHES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
OTHERWISE...NOTING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE S COAST AS NOTED ON 23Z
OBSERVATIONS WITH THE S-SW FLOW. TEMPS FALLING BACK THROUGH THE
70S WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOPING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS TEMPS FALL CLOSE TO THE
DEWPTS.
NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT DID DO A QUICK UPDATE TO
BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES. WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS OUR
REGION...SOME MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY TRY TO MAKE IT ONTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE EVENING OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OR WHAT/S LEFT OF IT EXITS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...THERE STILL WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK...THIS A RESULT OF SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S AND IT WILL BE MUGGY. IN
ADDITION...SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE WITH BEST CHANCE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND/OR EVENING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE***
***HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT***
AN INTERESTING SET UP IN PLACE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT DETAILS/TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN. APPEARS THE
MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/S AND
WHEN/WHERE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.
SOME OF OUR GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF MOST OF THE CONVECTION UNTIL VERY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WHEN THE MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND GETS THINGS GOING CLOSE TO 00Z IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.
OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS BREAKS OUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT EARLIER. WE ARE DEALING WITH A VERY
MOIST/UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND IT WON/T TAKE MUCH HEATING TO GET
SOME CONVECTION GOING. WE SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLIER
THAN SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.
OTHER THAN THE TIMING ISSUES...THE BIG UNCERTAINTY THAT NEEDS TO BE
RESOLVED IS THE AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSULATION. GIVEN PATTERN...EXPECT
TO SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND BUT A FEW PEEKS OF SUN WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE WILL HAVE 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...WE
CAN GET AWAY WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS AND STILL HAVE A SEVERE
THREAT...BUT MORE SUN WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE POTENTIAL. LOOKS LIKE
WE SHOULD SEE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOP...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF
25 TO 35 KNOTS AND PERHAPS LOCALLY OVER 40 KNOTS WHEN THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT...AND 70+ DEWPOINTS.
ALL IN ALL...DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE SHEAR
SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING. PERHAPS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL ENDS UP
IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY/SHEAR
OVERLAP...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ANYWHERE.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR HAIL WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS. IN
ADDITION...0 TO 1 KM HELICITY VALUES MAY EXCEED 100 ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S...AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
IT APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COME MORE WIDESPREAD. PWATS
ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AT 2+ INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BUT
THOUGH THERE IS MORE TIME TO GET A BETTER FEEL ON THE LOCATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* NUMEROUS SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
* SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ON
TUESDAY
* WARM AND VERY HUMID TUESDAY
* IMPROVING WEATHER WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS LATE THIS
WEEK
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH AN ANOMALOUS
TROUGH/CUTOFF COLD POOL MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK.
AS THIS TROUGH EVOLVES INTO THE LONG RANGE TIMEFRAME AND SHIFTS
SLOWLY SE...SURFACE WAVES AND TROUGHS WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN THE
DEVELOPING SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH TROPICAL AIR ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH PWATS
REMAINING IN THE 2.1 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALL
THIS...ALONG WITH THE SW FLOW IN PLACE...CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE
QPF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND 00Z THU IN THE FORECAST...
BUT THAT IS AERIAL COVERAGE. MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LOCALLY
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS.
12Z MODEL CYCLE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT IN VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS LOW PRES WAVE MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT LYING ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING RR QUADRANT OF 120 KT H3
JET PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUE INTO WED...ALONG WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY IN PLACE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SBCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG...AND EVEN 0-1 KM HELICITIES UP TO
AROUND 100 /M2. WILL SEE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. MAY ALSO SEE HAIL
AND...AGAIN...CAN NOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE SPINUP. HOWEVER...THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SOLAR INSULATION...AS THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND. SPC HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY PUSHING THE FRONT E DURING
WEDNESDAY AS THE H5 TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. SOME INSTABILITY WILL LINGER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
THERE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...AND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME HEAVY
RAINERS AS DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WED NIGHT.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
HUMIDITIES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH A POSSIBLE TRAILING H5
SHORT WAVE TRYING TO APPROACH LATE SAT OR SUN. HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS POSSIBLE FEATURE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGH SHOULD KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CLUSTER OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 06Z. WHILE
SOME SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL PLAIN...BEST SHOT FOR THUNDER
WILL BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. CAN NOT EVEN RULE OUT LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE...SCT SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP. WILL KEEP THINGS MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW AND SHOW
JUST MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN OUR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES...EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CAPE/ISLANDS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT....MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
PARTICULARLY TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...POSSIBLE ANYWHERE BUT BEST SHOT MAY
BE IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. BIGGEST THREATS TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AS FOR SKY/VSBYS
OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE DURING THE DAY
TUE EXCEPT LOWER CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR SOUTH COAST. CIGS/VSBYS
WILL DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUE NIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR TO
IFR DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE PROB OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 05Z.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH SCT TO
NUMEROUS TSTMS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS LIKELY. WILL SEE AREAS OF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIP. SOME GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS LIKELY TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL-E MA/RI. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ACROSS CT VALLEY TUE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY WED. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MIDDAY ACROSS CT VALLEY AND SLOWLY PUSHING E DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MVFR MAY LINGER INTO WED EVENING ACROSS E MA/RI. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE AREAS WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS E MA SHOULD IMPROVE BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR.
FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MANY OF THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH MAY BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET
ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS. THEREFORE...SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN
PLACE. MAY HAVE SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON MONDAY...BUT STILL
EXPECT THEM TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THEREFORE...DO NOT THINK
WILL NEED NEAR SHORE SCA HEADLINES. ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...SEAS
MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT. THEREFORE...OPTED TO JUST EXTEND THOSE SCA HEADLINES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MAY HAVE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. IN ADDITION...MORE FOG MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS ON THE OPEN
WATERS UP TO 5-6 FT. SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS WITH VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
REDUCED VSBYS. LOW CHANCE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS. VSBYS
ALSO REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATERS. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 KT. SEAS
REMAIN AOA 5 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS. STILL EXPECT HEAVY SHOWERS/SCT
TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS. WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT FROM W-E
WED NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG LINGERS ON THE EASTERN WATERS
THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN WATERS EARLY THU...OTHERWISE GOOD VSBYS. W
TO NW WINDS DIMINISHING...BUT SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS THU...WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE THU NIGHT. WILL SEE LIGHT S
TO SW WINDS FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WITH BOSTON AT 12.2 FEET AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVENT
ANY PROBLEMS ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST...WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY ISSUES. NO
COASTAL PRODUCTS ARE ANTICIPATED. WORST CASE SCENARIO IS VERY
MINOR SPLASH OVER WITH NO REAL IMPACTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
845 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.UPDATE...ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER INLAND AREAS
REMAIN AS THE DAYTIME HEATING ENDS. A NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CROSSING THROUGH SE GA MAY KEEP A FEW MORE WEAK CONVECTIVE
CELLS GOING THERE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH
WARMER AND DRIER CONDS AT MID LEVELS HELPED KEEP MOST CONVECTION
LIMITED AND NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. REST OF TONIGHT...POPS ARE
FCST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20% AFTER 10 PM. COULD BE AN ISOLD
SHOWER OVERLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS RAP MODEL SHOWS A LINGERING VORT
LOBE OVER SE GA BUT COVERAGE AND CHANCE LOOKS TO BE PRETTY LOW FOR
THE FCST ATTM. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS
08Z-12Z. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S UNDER LIGHT WINDS. FOR
MONDAY...SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS STEERING FLOW BECOMES SWLY
AND ANTICIPATE MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED MARKEDLY TO NIL OVER
THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO MID
MORNING MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING CECIL FIELD WHERE
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...ATTRIBUTED TO LOW LYING PATCHY FOG. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL BE PINNED JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL
CONVERGE WITH DOMINATING WEST COAST GOM SEA BREEZE WITH SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR I-75 AND SUWANNEE VALLEY BY 18Z. THE
CONVECTION THEN SHIFTS OVER TO EASTERN TERMINALS (SSI...VQQ...
JAX...AND CRG) DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS BOTH SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES MERGE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF NE FL AND SE GA.
&&
.MARINE...RECENT OBS SHOW SSE WINDS OF ABOUT 12-15 KT OVER NRN PARTS
OF THE MARINE AREA SO HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS THERE. THESE SLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOME SWLY AROUND 10-15 KT.
SEAS 2-4 FT. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE UPDATE.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH SURF OF ABOUT 2
FT OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 73 94 73 93 / 30 30 30 60
SSI 75 87 75 88 / 10 30 20 60
JAX 74 91 74 91 / 10 40 30 60
SGJ 74 88 74 88 / 10 30 30 50
GNV 72 89 72 89 / 20 50 30 60
OCF 72 89 72 89 / 20 50 30 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/CORDERO/NELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
941 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION AND WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE E/SE ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP EARLY AND MOVE WELL INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORNING
SOUNDINGS VERIFY GFS PW MODEL OUTPUT NICELY SHOWING A BAND OF DRIER
AIR ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA (1.5" AT XMR) AND DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND MOVING INTO THE TREASURE COAST
(AROUND 2"). LOCAL WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THIS DRIER AIR MY LIMIT
CONVECTION ACROSS BREVARD COUNTY. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR
ESPECIALLY INLAND OF THE TREASURE COAST AND NEAR AND WEST OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH
ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND INLAND OF THE WESTWARD MOVING EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS TODAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. DESPITE ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...THREAT FOR OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON LOOKS VERY LOW. BEST CHANCE WOULD EXIST
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE CAPE.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WEITLICH/GLITTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
932 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA MID TO
LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES...CURRENT FCST ON TRACK.
XPCT CONVECTION TO ONCE AGAIN REIGNITE OVER THE COASTAL WTRS LTE
TNGT/ERLY MON MRNG AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT CNTR EMERGES OFF THE
SC COAST. THIS SOLN SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP. SHOULD
SEE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WTRS AS LOW-LEVEL
STEERING TRAJS ARE PROGGED TO VEER TO THE SW AFT MIDNGT. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE SC BEACHES AND MUCH OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE COASTLINE.
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING SHOWING 20 PCNT ACROSS
MAINLY THE SC BEACHES AND UP TO 40 PERCENT FROM ROUGHLY FOLLY
BEACH NE TO MCCLELLANVILLE. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR 70S INLAND
TO THE MID-UPR 70S AT THE COAST AND DWTN CHARLESTON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...I EXPECT WE WILL WAKE UP TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT THERE WILL BE A
DIFFERENCE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A LEE TROF BECOMING
ESTABLISHED DUE TO INLAND HEATING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A
BIT STRONGER...ALLOWING WINDS TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND KEEP MORE
OF THE RAIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS RATHER THAN MOVING WELL INLAND. OF
COURSE...THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING
HOURS...AND THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION INLAND DURING THE
MAXIMUM HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN
RECENTLY...HOWEVER.
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE WARMER DUE TO BOTH THE MORE PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AS WELL AS WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER. I STILL EXPECT MANY PLACES TO GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
INLAND...WITH THE USUAL UPPER 80S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT THE
BEACHES.
TUESDAY...ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. A DEVELOPING SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA BY TUESDAY MORNING...MAKING IT TO THE MIDLANDS AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT
TOO FAR INLAND DUE TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. I AM
GENERALLY GOING WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE. MAIN REASON I AM
NOT GOING HIGHER IS THAT THE TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.
BEST UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST BY SUNSET
TUESDAY...SO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION UNLIKE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA.
TEMPS ARE TRICKY ON TUESDAY. IF THE FRONT IS JUST A FEW HOURS
SLOWER...IT COULD BE A QUITE HOT DAY WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE
AGAIN OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL POSITION...I HAVE OPTED TO GO ONLY MID 90S MOST PLACES AWAY
FROM THE COAST WITH UPPER 80S AGAIN AT THE BEACHES...ALTHOUGH THAT
IS STILL ABOVE GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING OVERNIGHT...THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT INCREASES...AND THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...HELPING TO INCREASE SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
I THINK THAT WE MAY SEE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OF THE
AREA CONTINUE TO STEADILY MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT...SO I KEPT POPS I THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY.
WEDNESDAY...ALL SIGNS POINT TO THE SURFACE FRONT MAKING AN ABRUPT
HALT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT RAPIDLY PULLS INTO EASTERN CANADA. SINCE MODELS ARE SHOWING
PWS IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE...I MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING
FORECAST OF GOOD CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. IT MIGHT BE A TOUCH DRIER
ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE...SO POPS ARE A BIT LOWER THERE...BUT NOT
BY MUCH. DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90. REALLY LOW PWS WILL BE TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE IN NORTH
GEORGIA...BUT JUST WONT MAKE IT TO THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
COLD FRONT MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY BUT BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. LGT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT KSAV WL DSPT PRIOR TO 00Z. LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR FOG/STRATUS AT BOTH TERMINALS...BUT LOW-LEVEL
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN TOO HIGH TO SUPPORT FOG OR WDSPRD STRATUS.
SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY IS FCST TO REDVLP OFF THE COAST LTE TNGT
SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL. MOST OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE
BUT A TSTM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT KCHS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION ATTM. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
DUE MAINLY TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WITH THE LEE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED INLAND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. IN FACT...SOME PORTIONS OF THE WATERS COULD APPROACH 15-20
KT...THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL BE AROUND 15 KT. SEAS WILL TICK UP A BIT
AS WELL...BECOMING 2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND GENERALLY 3 FT BEYOND.
THERE COULD BE 4 FT SEAS IN THE OUTER GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THOUGH THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AS
LAND BREEZE CREATES A NICE OF AREA SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RATHER THAN MOVING
STEADILY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE MORNING...THEY SHOULD START
DRIFTING PARALLEL TOO AND EVENTUALLY FURTHER OFFSHORE AS ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
TIGHTER THAN USUAL GRADIENT DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH
WINDS 15-20 KT AT TIMES. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15
KT. AS THE FRONT DIES OUT WEST OF THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES FAIRLY WEAK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT...
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN
EVENING HIGH TIDE AROUND 7.2-7.3 FT...HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 0.5 FT FOR MUCH OF THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND WITH A PREDICTED TIDE AROUND 6.8...THIS SHOULD
BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PUSH THE CHARLESTON HARBOR HIGH TIDE INTO
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
GEORGIA COAST...THE ONGOING GAGE OUTAGE AT FORT PULASKI CONTINUES
TO CAUSE PROBLEMS IN TRYING TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. LATEST ESTOFS SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL ONLY BE
ABOUT +0.3 ACROSS THE UPPER GEORGIA COAST AT HIGH TIDE WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE A PEAK TIDE SOMEWHERE AROUND 8.8-9.0 FT MLLW AT FORT
PULASKI. THIS IS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL NOT EXPAND THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO INCLUDE NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA...ALTHOUGH
THE TIDAL MARSHES ARE SURE TO BE QUITE FULL.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES DUE TO THE FULL MOON/PERIGEE COULD LEAD
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THE CHARLESTON AREA
MONDAY EVENING WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
718 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA MID TO
LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE LAST FEW VSBL SATL IMAGES SHOW A WELL-DEFINED 700 HPA VORT
CNTR ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER IN THE VCNTY OF HAMPTON-SCREVEN-
AND EFFINGHAM COUNTIES. THE LATEST RAP CAPTURED THIS FEATURE
WELL AND SHOWS IT PROPAGATING TO THE LWR SC COAST OVRNGT. ALTHOUGH
A FEW MORE SHWRS COULD POP ACROSS MAINLY SE GA THROUGH SUNSET...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY HAS DSPTD XPCT OVR SCREVEN COUNTY
WHERE LCLLY HVY RAINS CONT. ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH 9 PM BASED ON
THE LATEST MESOSCALE TRENDS.
XPCT CONVECTION TO ONCE AGAIN REIGNITE OVER THE COASTAL WTRS LTE
TNGT/ERLY MON MRNG AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT CNTR EMERGES OFF THE
SC COAST. SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL
WTRS AS LOW-LEVEL STEERING TRAJS ARE PROGGED TO VEER TO THE SW AFT
MIDNGT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE SC BEACHES
AND MUCH OF CHARLESTON COUNTY DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE
COASTLINE. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING SHOWING 20 PCNT
ACROSS MAINLY THE SC BEACHES AND UP TO 30-40 PERCENT FROM ROUGHLY
FOLLY BEACH N TO MCCLELLANVILLE. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR 70S
INLAND TO THE MID-UPR 70S AT THE COAST AND DWTN CHARLESTON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...I EXPECT WE WILL WAKE UP TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT THERE WILL BE A
DIFFERENCE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A LEE TROF BECOMING
ESTABLISHED DUE TO INLAND HEATING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A
BIT STRONGER...ALLOWING WINDS TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND KEEP MORE
OF THE RAIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS RATHER THAN MOVING WELL INLAND. OF
COURSE...THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING
HOURS...AND THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION INLAND DURING THE
MAXIMUM HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN
RECENTLY...HOWEVER.
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE WARMER DUE TO BOTH THE MORE PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AS WELL AS WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER. I STILL EXPECT MANY PLACES TO GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
INLAND...WITH THE USUAL UPPER 80S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT THE
BEACHES.
TUESDAY...ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. A DEVELOPING SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA BY TUESDAY MORNING...MAKING IT TO THE MIDLANDS AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT
TOO FAR INLAND DUE TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. I AM
GENERALLY GOING WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE. MAIN REASON I AM
NOT GOING HIGHER IS THAT THE TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.
BEST UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST BY SUNSET
TUESDAY...SO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION UNLIKE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA.
TEMPS ARE TRICKY ON TUESDAY. IF THE FRONT IS JUST A FEW HOURS
SLOWER...IT COULD BE A QUITE HOT DAY WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE
AGAIN OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL POSITION...I HAVE OPTED TO GO ONLY MID 90S MOST PLACES AWAY
FROM THE COAST WITH UPPER 80S AGAIN AT THE BEACHES...ALTHOUGH THAT
IS STILL ABOVE GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING OVERNIGHT...THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT INCREASES...AND THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...HELPING TO INCREASE SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
I THINK THAT WE MAY SEE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OF THE
AREA CONTINUE TO STEADILY MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT...SO I KEPT POPS I THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY.
WEDNESDAY...ALL SIGNS POINT TO THE SURFACE FRONT MAKING AN ABRUPT
HALT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT RAPIDLY PULLS INTO EASTERN CANADA. SINCE MODELS ARE SHOWING
PWS IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE...I MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING
FORECAST OF GOOD CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. IT MIGHT BE A TOUCH DRIER
ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE...SO POPS ARE A BIT LOWER THERE...BUT NOT
BY MUCH. DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90. REALLY LOW PWS WILL BE TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE IN NORTH
GEORGIA...BUT JUST WONT MAKE IT TO THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
COLD FRONT MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY BUT BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. LGT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT KSAV WL DSPT PRIOR TO 00Z. LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR FOG/STRATUS AT BOTH TERMINALS...BUT LOW-LEVEL
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN TOO HIGH TO SUPPORT FOG OR WDSPRD STRATUS.
SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY IS FCST TO REDVLP OFF THE COAST LTE TNGT
SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL. MOST OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE
BUT A TSTM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT KCHS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION ATTM. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
DUE MAINLY TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WITH THE LEE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED INLAND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. IN FACT...SOME PORTIONS OF THE WATERS COULD APPROACH 15-20
KT...THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL BE AROUND 15 KT. SEAS WILL TICK UP A BIT
AS WELL...BECOMING 2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND GENERALLY 3 FT BEYOND.
THERE COULD BE 4 FT SEAS IN THE OUTER GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THOUGH THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AS
LAND BREEZE CREATES A NICE OF AREA SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RATHER THAN MOVING
STEADILY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE MORNING...THEY SHOULD START
DRIFTING PARALLEL TOO AND EVENTUALLY FURTHER OFFSHORE AS ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
TIGHTER THAN USUAL GRADIENT DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH
WINDS 15-20 KT AT TIMES. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15
KT. AS THE FRONT DIES OUT WEST OF THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES FAIRLY WEAK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT...
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN
EVENING HIGH TIDE AROUND 7.2-7.3 FT...HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 0.5 FT FOR MUCH OF THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND WITH A PREDICTED TIDE AROUND 6.8...THIS SHOULD
BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PUSH THE CHARLESTON HARBOR HIGH TIDE INTO
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
GEORGIA COAST...THE ONGOING GAGE OUTAGE AT FORT PULASKI CONTINUES
TO CAUSE PROBLEMS IN TRYING TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. LATEST ESTOFS SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL ONLY BE
ABOUT +0.3 ACROSS THE UPPER GEORGIA COAST AT HIGH TIDE WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE A PEAK TIDE SOMEWHERE AROUND 8.8-9.0 FT MLLW AT FORT
PULASKI. THIS IS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL NOT EXPAND THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO INCLUDE NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA...ALTHOUGH
THE TIDAL MARSHES ARE SURE TO BE QUITE FULL.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES DUE TO THE FULL MOON/PERIGEE COULD LEAD
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THE CHARLESTON AREA
MONDAY EVENING WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
329 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK BOUNDARY STILL SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL GA THIS MORNING. THE
BOUNDARY IS VERY DIFFUSE AND IS ONLY BARELY NOTED IN THE TEMP/DEW
FIELDS. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ALL THE EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING.
POP COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS TODAY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WHILE PUSHING SOUTHWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC BUILDS DOWN THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
QUARTER OF THE CWFA...NEAREST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME ISOLD/LOW END SCT DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
PWATS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
STILL SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH BL WINDS AT OR
BLO 15 KT...STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE SLOW. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO ANY
STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NE GA TO STAY LOCKED ON THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN...LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DO THINK CONVECTION WILL MOSTLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...AND BEGIN
DIMINISHING WITH THE SETTING SUN. CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSE...WITH
HIGH CAPE AND LOW SHEAR. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK...AND
CAN`T FIND ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW. SO...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...EITHER TODAY OR SUNDAY
BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLD SEVERE STORM EACH DAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR SUNDAY SHOULD
BE EVEN LESS THAN TODAY.
WITH LESSER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PATTERN STILL
EXPECTED TO BECOME DOMINATED BY LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS BY TUES AND PERSIST THRU FRIDAY. 00Z MED RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING
EDGE OF WESTERLIES TO MOVE INTO STATE ON TUES SO BUMPED POPS TO
LIKELY. AS MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO HONE IN ON SPECIFICS AND WITH
LESS WEIGHT ON CLIMATOLOGY...BEGINNING TO APPEAR THAT TUES/WED
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND MODERATELY COOLER THAN NORMAL
AFTER FROPA. WED MAX TEMPS MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S. AS FRONT
WASHES OUT AND LIFTS NORTH THURS/FRI WILL LIKELY SEE RETURN TO SCT
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED DYNAMIC BLEND FOR FORECAST
TEMPS WHICH WEIGHTS RAW MODELS AND UNCORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE IN AREAS
OF RAIN AND CLOUDS AND BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE IN AREAS OF NO
RAIN AND LESS CLOUDS.
SNELSON
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL CU
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND DEVELOP AGAIN BY
LATE MORNING SUNDAY. ESE WINDS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...AND WITH SE/S BY SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT FOG TO BE A
PROBLEM IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF LOWER VSBYS 09-14Z FOR CSG...MCN...AND
AHN. RAIN/TS CHANCES LOW ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS SWITCH TO THE SW SUNDAY MORNING...AFTER 14Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
09-14Z.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 91 71 93 70 / 30 30 20 10
ATLANTA 90 73 92 73 / 20 20 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 85 66 86 63 / 30 30 30 10
CARTERSVILLE 91 71 93 69 / 20 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 92 74 94 73 / 30 30 20 10
GAINESVILLE 88 70 91 72 / 30 30 20 10
MACON 91 72 93 69 / 30 30 20 10
ROME 92 72 93 70 / 20 20 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 90 71 92 69 / 20 20 20 10
VIDALIA 89 73 93 72 / 30 30 30 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....ARG
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
720 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK BOUNDARY STILL SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL GA THIS MORNING. THE
BOUNDARY IS VERY DIFFUSE AND IS ONLY BARELY NOTED IN THE TEMP/DEW
FIELDS. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ALL THE EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING.
POP COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS TODAY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WHILE PUSHING SOUTHWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC BUILDS DOWN THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
QUARTER OF THE CWFA...NEAREST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME ISOLD/LOW END SCT DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
PWATS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
STILL SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH BL WINDS AT OR
BLO 15 KT...STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE SLOW. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO ANY
STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NE GA TO STAY LOCKED ON THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN...LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DO THINK CONVECTION WILL MOSTLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...AND BEGIN
DIMINISHING WITH THE SETTING SUN. CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSE...WITH
HIGH CAPE AND LOW SHEAR. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK...AND
CAN`T FIND ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW. SO...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...EITHER TODAY OR SUNDAY
BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLD SEVERE STORM EACH DAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR SUNDAY SHOULD
BE EVEN LESS THAN TODAY.
WITH LESSER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PATTERN STILL
EXPECTED TO BECOME DOMINATED BY LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS BY TUES AND PERSIST THRU FRIDAY. 00Z MED RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING
EDGE OF WESTERLIES TO MOVE INTO STATE ON TUES SO BUMPED POPS TO
LIKELY. AS MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO HONE IN ON SPECIFICS AND WITH
LESS WEIGHT ON CLIMATOLOGY...BEGINNING TO APPEAR THAT TUES/WED
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND MODERATELY COOLER THAN NORMAL
AFTER FROPA. WED MAX TEMPS MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S. AS FRONT
WASHES OUT AND LIFTS NORTH THURS/FRI WILL LIKELY SEE RETURN TO SCT
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED DYNAMIC BLEND FOR FORECAST
TEMPS WHICH WEIGHTS RAW MODELS AND UNCORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE IN AREAS
OF RAIN AND CLOUDS AND BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE IN AREAS OF NO
RAIN AND LESS CLOUDS.
SNELSON
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
PATCHY LOW CIGS AND FOG SKIRTING THE AIRFIELD THIS MORNING. HAVE
ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT TWO HOURS. DIURNAL
CU EXPECTED AFTER THE FOG/HAZE AND LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF. HRRR STILL
KEEPS THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOW AT ATL...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH NO MENTION FOR NOW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW-MED CONFIDENCE ON CIGS FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 91 71 93 70 / 30 30 20 10
ATLANTA 90 73 92 73 / 20 20 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 85 66 86 63 / 30 30 30 10
CARTERSVILLE 91 71 93 69 / 20 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 92 74 94 73 / 30 30 20 10
GAINESVILLE 88 70 91 72 / 30 30 20 10
MACON 91 72 93 69 / 30 30 20 10
ROME 92 72 93 70 / 20 20 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 90 71 92 69 / 20 20 20 10
VIDALIA 89 73 93 72 / 30 30 30 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
433 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK BOUNDARY STILL SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL GA THIS MORNING. THE
BOUNDARY IS VERY DIFFUSE AND IS ONLY BARELY NOTED IN THE TEMP/DEW
FIELDS. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ALL THE EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING.
POP COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS TODAY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WHILE PUSHING SOUTHWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC BUILDS DOWN THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
QUARTER OF THE CWFA...NEAREST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME ISOLD/LOW END SCT DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
PWATS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
STILL SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH BL WINDS AT OR
BLO 15 KT...STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE SLOW. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO ANY
STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NE GA TO STAY LOCKED ON THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN...LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DO THINK CONVECTION WILL MOSTLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...AND BEGIN
DIMINISHING WITH THE SETTING SUN. CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSE...WITH
HIGH CAPE AND LOW SHEAR. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK...AND
CAN`T FIND ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW. SO...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...EITHER TODAY OR SUNDAY
BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLD SEVERE STORM EACH DAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR SUNDAY SHOULD
BE EVEN LESS THAN TODAY.
WITH LESSER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PATTERN STILL
EXPECTED TO BECOME DOMINATED BY LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS BY TUES AND PERSIST THRU FRIDAY. 00Z MED RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING
EDGE OF WESTERLIES TO MOVE INTO STATE ON TUES SO BUMPED POPS TO
LIKELY. AS MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO HONE IN ON SPECIFICS AND WITH
LESS WEIGHT ON CLIMATOLOGY...BEGINNING TO APPEAR THAT TUES/WED
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND MODERATELY COOLER THAN NORMAL
AFTER FROPA. WED MAX TEMPS MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S. AS FRONT
WASHES OUT AND LIFTS NORTH THURS/FRI WILL LIKELY SEE RETURN TO SCT
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED DYNAMIC BLEND FOR FORECAST
TEMPS WHICH WEIGHTS RAW MODELS AND UNCORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE IN AREAS
OF RAIN AND CLOUDS AND BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE IN AREAS OF NO
RAIN AND LESS CLOUDS.
SNELSON
&&
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN PLACES WHERE
HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. HAVE KEPT CIGS SCT FOR NOW WITH TEMPO
BKN VALUES...BUT WILL MONITOR OBS IN CASE PREVAILING BKN/OVC IS
NEEDED. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO DIURNAL CU LATER THIS
MORNING. SCT CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...AND KEPT THE PREVIOUS TIMING IN THE TAFS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 91 71 93 70 / 30 30 20 10
ATLANTA 90 73 92 73 / 20 20 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 85 66 86 63 / 30 30 30 10
CARTERSVILLE 91 71 93 69 / 20 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 92 74 94 73 / 30 30 20 10
GAINESVILLE 88 70 91 72 / 30 30 20 10
MACON 91 72 93 69 / 30 30 20 10
ROME 92 72 93 70 / 20 20 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 90 71 92 69 / 20 20 20 10
VIDALIA 89 73 93 72 / 30 30 30 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
850 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IS AN INTERESTING CONTRAST
FROM OREGON TO IDAHO AND STORMS IN OREGON HAVE BEEN MORE INTENSE.
WINDS GUSTED 35-45 MPH AT BURNS... BAKER AND LITTLE MCCOY CREEK
RAWS. AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN FELL IN AN HOUR AT
BURNS AIRPORT. AROUND 400 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE
OBSERVED /VAISALA/ ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY AREA /BAKER-HARNEY-
MALHEUR/ IN THE LAST 5 HOURS. MEDFORD SOUNDING SHOWED OVER 1500
J/KG CAPE AND -9 LI WHILE BOISE NOT ONLY CONTINUED TO HAVE A 2C
MID LEVEL CAP BUT ALSO ONLY SHOWED -1 LI. A MIXED LAYER PARCEL
WOULD ONLY HAVE 2 CAPE AND -1 LI WITH -175 CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
SO STORMS MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING MAKES SENSE PER THE
ENVIRONMENT. UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CHANGE THAT OVER NE OREGON AND
CENTRAL IDAHO TO THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY
LONGER OVER CENTRAL IDAHO. WILL CONSIDER TRENDS AND HRRR TO
POSSIBLY RAISE POPS FROM FAR W OWYHEE COUNTY TO PARMA TO
ADAMS/GEM AND MAYBE VALLEY COUNTIES. SOME DETAILS FOR BAKER AND
BURNS POSTED ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE /NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE
IDAHO/ AND TWEETED @NWSBOISE.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON THROUGH 06Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 0230Z WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL
WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT 10
KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NOW COMING INTO OREGON AND HEADED INTO WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING WILL HELP INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND STRONG
SHEAR...WE EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO BE OUR BIGGEST PROBLEMS WITH THE
STORMS THAT FORM. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE. WITH MORE WIND AND CLOUD THAN NORMAL...WE EXPECT
TONIGHT/S LOWS TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THIS WAVE
MOVES EAST ACROSS IDAHO TOMORROW...THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE AND EVEN
INCREASE. HIGHS IN THE VALLEY TOMORROW WILL BE FROM 103 TO 107 OR
SO. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN TOMORROW...
HOWEVER...THE LOCATION IS GREATLY CHANGED FROM TODAY. WE EXPECT
OUR EASTERN EDGE TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE TOMORROW. COVERAGE IS AGAIN
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES NW...AND DRIER AND LESS-HOT AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
MIN TEMPS WILL GET DOWN A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TONIGHT...BUT
WILL STILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DOWN IN THE MID 90S AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT IN THE
FORECAST.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...EXCEPT A WEAK
TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO AND INTO MONTANA LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS KEEP MONSOON MOISTURE SOUTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO WE WILL BE DRY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....RD/JT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
556 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...555PM
LOCAL AREA CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN THE CWA WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING AND
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 70S. FARTHER NORTH
AND NORTHEAST MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS HAMPERED
DESTABILIZATION TO SOME DEGREE...HOWEVER 22Z AMDAR SOUNDING OUT OF
ORD PAIRED WITH NAM MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATES AROUND 1000 J/KG
MLCAPE WITH AROUND 100 J/KG MLCIN TO OVERCOME. THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING THE CAP OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
IL WITH OVER 2000 J/KG MLCAPE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MOSTLY
UNCAPPED. SHEARED VORT LOBE IS DRIVING EAST ACROSS MN/IA AND WI
CURRENTLY AND HAS PROVIDED SOME BROAD SCALE ASCENT TO KICK OFF A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL IA TO NEAR THE QUAD CITIES WHERE PWATS HAVE POOLED
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. A CORRIDOR OF 40+ KT 0-6KM SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AS ALREADY EVIDENT BY THE SUPERCELL NORTH
OF THE QUAD CITIES. EXPECT LINE OF STORMS TO CONTINUE TO FILL IN
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH A STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AS 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS LATER THIS EVENING
HELPING TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS STILL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
DEUBELBEISS
510 PM CDT...
STORMS ARE INITIATING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IA AND HAVE
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH THAT EXTENDS AS FAR EAST
AS NORTHWEST IL. LATEST HAND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOL OF
75+ DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL IL ADVANCING
NORTHWARD WITH MANY SURFACE OBS IN THIS AREA INDICATING
GUSTINESS. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS A WARM FRONT WITH STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS INCHING NORTHWARD NEAR INTERSTATE 88
AHEAD OF A 1012MB SFC LOW IN CENTRAL IA. SUCH A SETUP OF A SLOWING
NORTHWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A NOT-TOO-STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WITH GOOD REPLENISHING MOISTURE REALLY SPELLS TROUBLE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT WITHIN THE REGION. MOST FAVORED THIS EVE WOULD BE
ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONTAL AXIS...SO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA INCLUDING ROCKFORD. AS CONVECTION
EVOLVES/EXPANDS EASTWARD THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING...SOME
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION IS THEN LIKELY INTO OVERNIGHT. SO THE ENTIRE
AREA REMAINS UNDER AN INCREASING RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE
OF FLASH FLOODING...WHICH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS AS MENTIONED IN PREV DISCUSSION.
MTF
&&
.DISCUSSION...
311 PM CDT
THIS AFTERNOON...
THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
STACKED JUST ABOVE IT. STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN AND WE ARE SLOWLY RECOVERING FROM THIS MORNING/S
CONVECTION. THE 18Z DVN SOUNDING FEATURED 1.7 INCHES OF PWAT AND
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE. THE SOUNDING ALSO HAD A STOUT CAP AT 850MB
WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS. LAPSE RATES TO
950 MB WERE SURPRISINGLY STEEP GIVEN THE THICK CLOUD COVER. WITH THE
CAP IN PLACE AND SLOW RECOVERY NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. IN GENERAL EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THIN AND TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID 80S BY LATE THIS
AFTN. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUGGY AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER IOWA WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THIS EVENING ADDING FORCING FOR STORMS. A SURFACE LOW IS OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA AND ITS COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. A LINE OF STORMS WILL FORM ALONG
THE FRONT AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 850MB STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEST AT 30-40 KT AHEAD OF THE
LINE BUT ONLY AROUND 15 KT FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. TIMING
DIFFERS BETWEEN THE MODELS BUT THINKING A BLEND OF OUR LOCAL ARW AND
THE RAP LOOK REASONABLE. THE NAM LOOKS TOO FAST WHILE THE HRRR LOOKS
TOO SLOW.
THE LINE MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...BUT THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FLASH FLOODING. PWAT VALUES REMAIN HIGH AT
1.7-1.8 INCHES AND VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE WARNING
AREA FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
THIS STORM WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL
LIKELY BE ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
EASILY APPROACH 2 INCHES. IN ADDITION...SOME AREAS THIS MORNING
FROM COOK COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH PONTIAC AND GIBSON CITY SAW MULTIPLE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. THESE AREAS WILL BE THE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING AS WATER LEVELS ARE ALREADY
HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPLITS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A SECOND COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE SOUTH OF I-80
SO ONLY HAVE A CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF I-80. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME.
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM SUNDAY NIGHT FIRST ALONG THE
IL/WI STATE LINE AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH AS A VORTICITY STREAMER FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY THEN ONLY EXPECTING
SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM WITH THE STORMS DEVELOPING AND
COVERAGE.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY AND HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIGGER STORY
WILL BE THE COOL AIR THAT FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WHILE MONDAY/S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS CRISP WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS NE THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXTENDED
LOOKS DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
SOME TIME AROUND MID EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH IFR VISIBILITY AT TIMES BECOMING MORE LIKELY. WILL
LIKELY INCLUDE TEMPO IN 00Z TAFS FOR VISIBILITY OF 1 SM OR
POSSIBLY LOWER.
* CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MTF/MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THINKING AT THIS POINT. CUMULUS IS STARTING TO
DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW LINE FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA NORTHEASTWARD UP
TOWARDS DBQ ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING INTO FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND POSSIBLY RFD IN A FEW
HOURS. OVERALL TIMING SPECIFICS AT THE TERMINALS IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH TO SUPPORT ANY IMMEDIATE CHANGES.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN SCATTERING THOUGH SOME BROKEN PATCH
MAY REMAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
FROM 18Z...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE. CIGS ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE WITH MAINLY MVFR
IN PLACE. A LOOK OUT THE WINDOW AT THE OFFICE SHOWS STEADY
SCATTERING OF THE LOWEST CLOUDS WHICH SUPPORTS THE THINKING THAT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOCUS TURNS
TO TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BUT FORCING WILL
INCREASE FAR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE UP TOWARDS RFD BY THEN BUT THE FOCUS FOR THE
MOST WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION SO
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BUT AT THIS POINT EARLY EVENING
IS FAVORED AT RFD WITH MID EVENING IN THE CHICAGO AREA AND
SLIGHTLY LATER AT GYY AS THINGS SAG SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT WILL BE
FAIRLY SLOW TO MOVE SO TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED LEADING TO A FAIRLY LONG DURATION OF THUNDER. TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL MAY BRING VSBY DOWN BELOW 1SM BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS
DETAIL IN THE TAF UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR. WINDS MAY BE
ERRATIC OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT TREND TO WEST THEN
NORTHWEST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT AS
WELL BUT VFR SHOULD BUILD IN.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM IN WINDS...BUT HIGH THEY WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH AT LEAST 01Z.
* HIGH THAT CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z. HIGH THAT
TSRA WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...MEDIUM IN TIMING. HIGH THAT TEMPORARY
IFR VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN CIGS REMAINING VFR UNTIL TSRA.
MTF/MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY-MONDAY...LOW CHANCES OF TSRA.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR LIKELY.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
423 PM CDT
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE JUST
WEST OF THE LAKE. AS THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST
AND THEN EVENTUALLY WEST TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH...DO EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE.
EXPECTED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
ERRATIC WINDS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS. DO EXPECT MORE OF A WEST
NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY...AS A SECONDARY
TROUGH/FRONT MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 1 PM SUNDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 1
PM SUNDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
511 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
510 PM CDT
STORMS ARE INITIATING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IA AND HAVE
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH THAT EXTENDS AS FAR EAST
AS NORTHWEST IL. LATEST HAND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOL OF
75+ DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL IL ADVANCING
NORTHWARD WITH MANY SURFACE OBS IN THIS AREA INDICATING
GUSTINESS. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS A WARM FRONT WITH STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS INCHING NORTHWARD NEAR INTERSTATE 88
AHEAD OF A 1012MB SFC LOW IN CENTRAL IA. SUCH A SETUP OF A SLOWING
NORTHWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A NOT-TOO-STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WITH GOOD REPLENISHING MOISTURE REALLY SPELLS TROUBLE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT WITHIN THE REGION. MOST FAVORED THIS EVE WOULD BE
ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONTAL AXIS...SO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA INCLUDING ROCKFORD. AS CONVECTION
EVOLVES/EXPANDS EASTWARD THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING...SOME
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION IS THEN LIKELY INTO OVERNIGHT. SO THE ENTIRE
AREA REMAINS UNDER AN INCREASING RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE
OF FLASH FLOODING...WHICH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS AS MENTIONED IN PREV DISCUSSION.
MTF
&&
.DISCUSSION...
311 PM CDT
THIS AFTERNOON...
THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
STACKED JUST ABOVE IT. STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN AND WE ARE SLOWLY RECOVERING FROM THIS MORNING/S
CONVECTION. THE 18Z DVN SOUNDING FEATURED 1.7 INCHES OF PWAT AND
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE. THE SOUNDING ALSO HAD A STOUT CAP AT 850MB
WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS. LAPSE RATES TO
950 MB WERE SURPRISINGLY STEEP GIVEN THE THICK CLOUD COVER. WITH THE
CAP IN PLACE AND SLOW RECOVERY NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. IN GENERAL EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THIN AND TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID 80S BY LATE THIS
AFTN. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUGGY AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER IOWA WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THIS EVENING ADDING FORCING FOR STORMS. A SURFACE LOW IS OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA AND ITS COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. A LINE OF STORMS WILL FORM ALONG
THE FRONT AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 850MB STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEST AT 30-40 KT AHEAD OF THE
LINE BUT ONLY AROUND 15 KT FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. TIMING
DIFFERS BETWEEN THE MODELS BUT THINKING A BLEND OF OUR LOCAL ARW AND
THE RAP LOOK REASONABLE. THE NAM LOOKS TOO FAST WHILE THE HRRR LOOKS
TOO SLOW.
THE LINE MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...BUT THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FLASH FLOODING. PWAT VALUES REMAIN HIGH AT
1.7-1.8 INCHES AND VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE WARNING
AREA FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
THIS STORM WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL
LIKELY BE ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
EASILY APPROACH 2 INCHES. IN ADDITION...SOME AREAS THIS MORNING
FROM COOK COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH PONTIAC AND GIBSON CITY SAW MULTIPLE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. THESE AREAS WILL BE THE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING AS WATER LEVELS ARE ALREADY
HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPLITS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A SECOND COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE SOUTH OF I-80
SO ONLY HAVE A CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF I-80. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME.
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM SUNDAY NIGHT FIRST ALONG THE
IL/WI STATE LINE AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH AS A VORTICITY STREAMER FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY THEN ONLY EXPECTING
SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM WITH THE STORMS DEVELOPING AND
COVERAGE.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY AND HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIGGER STORY
WILL BE THE COOL AIR THAT FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WHILE MONDAY/S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS CRISP WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS NE THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXTENDED
LOOKS DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
SOME TIME AROUND MID EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH IFR VISIBILITY AT TIMES BECOMING MORE LIKELY. WILL
LIKELY INCLUDE TEMPO IN 00Z TAFS FOR VISIBILITY OF 1 SM OR
POSSIBLY LOWER.
* CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MTF/MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THINKING AT THIS POINT. CUMULUS IS STARTING TO
DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW LINE FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA NORTHEASTWARD UP
TOWARDS DBQ ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING INTO FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND POSSIBLY RFD IN A FEW
HOURS. OVERALL TIMING SPECIFICS AT THE TERMINALS IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH TO SUPPORT ANY IMMEDIATE CHANGES.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN SCATTERING THOUGH SOME BROKEN PATCH
MAY REMAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
FROM 18Z...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE. CIGS ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE WITH MAINLY MVFR
IN PLACE. A LOOK OUT THE WINDOW AT THE OFFICE SHOWS STEADY
SCATTERING OF THE LOWEST CLOUDS WHICH SUPPORTS THE THINKING THAT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOCUS TURNS
TO TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BUT FORCING WILL
INCREASE FAR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE UP TOWARDS RFD BY THEN BUT THE FOCUS FOR THE
MOST WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION SO
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BUT AT THIS POINT EARLY EVENING
IS FAVORED AT RFD WITH MID EVENING IN THE CHICAGO AREA AND
SLIGHTLY LATER AT GYY AS THINGS SAG SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT WILL BE
FAIRLY SLOW TO MOVE SO TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED LEADING TO A FAIRLY LONG DURATION OF THUNDER. TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL MAY BRING VSBY DOWN BELOW 1SM BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS
DETAIL IN THE TAF UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR. WINDS MAY BE
ERRATIC OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT TREND TO WEST THEN
NORTHWEST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT AS
WELL BUT VFR SHOULD BUILD IN.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM IN WINDS...BUT HIGH THEY WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH AT LEAST 01Z.
* HIGH THAT CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER 00Z. HIGH THAT
TSRA WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...MEDIUM IN TIMING. HIGH THAT TEMPORARY
IFR VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN CIGS REMAINING VFR UNTIL TSRA.
MTF/MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY-MONDAY...LOW CHANCES OF TSRA.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR LIKELY.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
423 PM CDT
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE JUST
WEST OF THE LAKE. AS THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST
AND THEN EVENTUALLY WEST TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH...DO EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE.
EXPECTED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
ERRATIC WINDS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS. DO EXPECT MORE OF A WEST
NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY...AS A SECONDARY
TROUGH/FRONT MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 1 PM SUNDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 1
PM SUNDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
424 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
311 PM CDT
THIS AFTERNOON...
THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
STACKED JUST ABOVE IT. STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN AND WE ARE SLOWLY RECOVERING FROM THIS MORNING/S
CONVECTION. THE 18Z DVN SOUNDING FEATURED 1.7 INCHES OF PWAT AND
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE. THE SOUNDING ALSO HAD A STOUT CAP AT 850MB
WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS. LAPSE RATES TO
950 MB WERE SURPRISINGLY STEEP GIVEN THE THICK CLOUD COVER. WITH THE
CAP IN PLACE AND SLOW RECOVERY NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. IN GENERAL EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THIN AND TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID 80S BY LATE THIS
AFTN. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUGGY AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER IOWA WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THIS EVENING ADDING FORCING FOR STORMS. A SURFACE LOW IS OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA AND ITS COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. A LINE OF STORMS WILL FORM ALONG
THE FRONT AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 850MB STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEST AT 30-40 KT AHEAD OF THE
LINE BUT ONLY AROUND 15 KT FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. TIMING
DIFFERS BETWEEN THE MODELS BUT THINKING A BLEND OF OUR LOCAL ARW AND
THE RAP LOOK REASONABLE. THE NAM LOOKS TOO FAST WHILE THE HRRR LOOKS
TOO SLOW.
THE LINE MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...BUT THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FLASH FLOODING. PWAT VALUES REMAIN HIGH AT
1.7-1.8 INCHES AND VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE WARNING
AREA FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
THIS STORM WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL
LIKELY BE ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
EASILY APPROACH 2 INCHES. IN ADDITION...SOME AREAS THIS MORNING
FROM COOK COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH PONTIAC AND GIBSON CITY SAW MULTIPLE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. THESE AREAS WILL BE THE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING AS WATER LEVELS ARE ALREADY
HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPLITS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A SECOND COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE SOUTH OF I-80
SO ONLY HAVE A CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF I-80. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME.
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM SUNDAY NIGHT FIRST ALONG THE
IL/WI STATE LINE AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH AS A VORTICITY STREAMER FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY THEN ONLY EXPECTING
SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM WITH THE STORMS DEVELOPING AND
COVERAGE.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY AND HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIGGER STORY
WILL BE THE COOL AIR THAT FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WHILE MONDAY/S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS CRISP WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS NE THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXTENDED
LOOKS DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT THROUGH AFTERNOON.
* LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED SOME TIME AROUND MID EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
* MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SCATTER TO VFR MID AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THINKING AT THIS POINT. CUMULUS IS STARTING TO
DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW LINE FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA NORTHEASTWARD UP
TOWARDS DBQ ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING INTO FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND POSSIBLY RFD IN A FEW
HOURS. OVERALL TIMING SPECIFICS AT THE TERMINALS IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH TO SUPPORT ANY IMMEDIATE CHANGES.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN SCATTERING THOUGH SOME BROKEN PATCH
MAY REMAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
FROM 18Z...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE. CIGS ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE WITH MAINLY MVFR
IN PLACE. A LOOK OUT THE WINDOW AT THE OFFICE SHOWS STEADY
SCATTERING OF THE LOWEST CLOUDS WHICH SUPPORTS THE THINKING THAT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOCUS TURNS
TO TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BUT FORCING WILL
INCREASE FAR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE UP TOWARDS RFD BY THEN BUT THE FOCUS FOR THE
MOST WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION SO
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BUT AT THIS POINT EARLY EVENING
IS FAVORED AT RFD WITH MID EVENING IN THE CHICAGO AREA AND
SLIGHTLY LATER AT GYY AS THINGS SAG SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT WILL BE
FAIRLY SLOW TO MOVE SO TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED LEADING TO A FAIRLY LONG DURATION OF THUNDER. TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL MAY BRING VSBY DOWN BELOW 1SM BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS
DETAIL IN THE TAF UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR. WINDS MAY BE
ERRATIC OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT TREND TO WEST THEN
NORTHWEST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT AS
WELL BUT VFR SHOULD BUILD IN.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IS LOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHRA/TSRA IS LIKELY THIS EVENING. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY-MONDAY...LOW CHANCES OF TSRA.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR LIKELY.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
423 PM CDT
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE JUST
WEST OF THE LAKE. AS THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST
AND THEN EVENTUALLY WEST TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH...DO EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE.
EXPECTED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
ERRATIC WINDS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS. DO EXPECT MORE OF A WEST
NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY...AS A SECONDARY
TROUGH/FRONT MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 1 PM SUNDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 1
PM SUNDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
312 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
311 PM CDT
THIS AFTERNOON...
THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
STACKED JUST ABOVE IT. STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN AND WE ARE SLOWLY RECOVERING FROM THIS MORNING/S
CONVECTION. THE 18Z DVN SOUNDING FEATURED 1.7 INCHES OF PWAT AND
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE. THE SOUNDING ALSO HAD A STOUT CAP AT 850MB
WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS. LAPSE RATES TO
950 MB WERE SURPRISINGLY STEEP GIVEN THE THICK CLOUD COVER. WITH THE
CAP IN PLACE AND SLOW RECOVERY NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. IN GENERAL EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THIN AND TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID 80S BY LATE THIS
AFTN. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUGGY AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER IOWA WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THIS EVENING ADDING FORCING FOR STORMS. A SURFACE LOW IS OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA AND ITS COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. A LINE OF STORMS WILL FORM ALONG
THE FRONT AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 850MB STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEST AT 30-40 KT AHEAD OF THE
LINE BUT ONLY AROUND 15 KT FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. TIMING
DIFFERS BETWEEN THE MODELS BUT THINKING A BLEND OF OUR LOCAL ARW AND
THE RAP LOOK REASONABLE. THE NAM LOOKS TOO FAST WHILE THE HRRR LOOKS
TOO SLOW.
THE LINE MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...BUT THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FLASH FLOODING. PWAT VALUES REMAIN HIGH AT
1.7-1.8 INCHES AND VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE WARNING
AREA FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
THIS STORM WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL
LIKELY BE ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
EASILY APPROACH 2 INCHES. IN ADDITION...SOME AREAS THIS MORNING
FROM COOK COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH PONTIAC AND GIBSON CITY SAW MULTIPLE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. THESE AREAS WILL BE THE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING AS WATER LEVELS ARE ALREADY
HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPLITS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A SECOND COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE SOUTH OF I-80
SO ONLY HAVE A CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF I-80. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME.
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM SUNDAY NIGHT FIRST ALONG THE
IL/WI STATE LINE AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH AS A VORTICITY STREAMER FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY THEN ONLY EXPECTING
SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM WITH THE STORMS DEVELOPING AND
COVERAGE.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY AND HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIGGER STORY
WILL BE THE COOL AIR THAT FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WHILE MONDAY/S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS CRISP WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS NE THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXTENDED
LOOKS DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT THROUGH AFTERNOON.
* LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED SOME TIME AROUND MID EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
* MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SCATTER TO VFR MID AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THINKING AT THIS POINT. CUMULUS IS STARTING TO
DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW LINE FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA NORTHEASTWARD UP
TOWARDS DBQ ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING INTO FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND POSSIBLY RFD IN A FEW
HOURS. OVERALL TIMING SPECIFICS AT THE TERMINALS IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH TO SUPPORT ANY IMMEDIATE CHANGES.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN SCATTERING THOUGH SOME BROKEN PATCH
MAY REMAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
FROM 18Z...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE. CIGS ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE WITH MAINLY MVFR
IN PLACE. A LOOK OUT THE WINDOW AT THE OFFICE SHOWS STEADY
SCATTERING OF THE LOWEST CLOUDS WHICH SUPPORTS THE THINKING THAT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOCUS TURNS
TO TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BUT FORCING WILL
INCREASE FAR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE UP TOWARDS RFD BY THEN BUT THE FOCUS FOR THE
MOST WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION SO
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BUT AT THIS POINT EARLY EVENING
IS FAVORED AT RFD WITH MID EVENING IN THE CHICAGO AREA AND
SLIGHTLY LATER AT GYY AS THINGS SAG SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT WILL BE
FAIRLY SLOW TO MOVE SO TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED LEADING TO A FAIRLY LONG DURATION OF THUNDER. TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL MAY BRING VSBY DOWN BELOW 1SM BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS
DETAIL IN THE TAF UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR. WINDS MAY BE
ERRATIC OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT TREND TO WEST THEN
NORTHWEST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT AS
WELL BUT VFR SHOULD BUILD IN.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IS LOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHRA/TSRA IS LIKELY THIS EVENING. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY-MONDAY...LOW CHANCES OF TSRA.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR LIKELY.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
244 AM CDT
STILL SEEING GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...BUT DO EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES EAST.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS SURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE LAKE
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH REGARDS TO OVERALL
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE LAKE THROUGH
MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN CENTRAL
PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST- NORTHWEST BEHIND THE STRONGER COLD
FRONTAL PUSH MONDAY NIGHT AND REACH 20 KT OR POSSIBLY HIGHER
TUESDAY.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
309 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
300 PM CDT
THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE POSTED SHORTLY.
TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER IOWA WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THIS EVENING ADDING FORCING FOR STORMS. A SURFACE LOW IS OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA AND ITS COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. A LINE OF STORMS WILL FORM ALONG
THE FRONT AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 850MB STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEST AT 30-40 KT AHEAD OF THE
LINE BUT ONLY AROUND 15 KT FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. TIMING
DIFFERS BETWEEN THE MODELS BUT THINKING A BLEND OF OUR LOCAL ARW AND
THE RAP LOOK REASONABLE. THE NAM LOOKS TOO FAST WHILE THE HRRR LOOKS
TOO SLOW.
THE LINE MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...BUT THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FLASH FLOODING. PWAT VALUES REMAIN HIGH AT
1.7-1.8 INCHES AND VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE WARNING
AREA FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
THIS STORM WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL
LIKELY BE ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
EASILY APPROACH 2 INCHES. IN ADDITION...SOME AREAS THIS MORNING
FROM COOK COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH PONTIAC AND GIBSON CITY SAW MULTIPLE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. THESE AREAS WILL BE THE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING AS WATER LEVELS ARE ALREADY
HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPLITS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A SECOND COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE SOUTH OF I-80
SO ONLY HAVE A CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF I-80. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME.
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM SUNDAY NIGHT FIRST ALONG THE
IL/WI STATE LINE AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH AS A VORTICITY STREAMER FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY THEN ONLY EXPECTING
SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM WITH THE STORMS DEVELOPING AND
COVERAGE.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY AND HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIGGER STORY
WILL BE THE COOL AIR THAT FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WHILE MONDAY/S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS CRISP WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS NE THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXTENDED
LOOKS DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT THROUGH AFTERNOON.
* LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED SOME TIME AROUND MID EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
* MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SCATTER TO VFR MID AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THINKING AT THIS POINT. CUMULUS IS STARTING TO
DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW LINE FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA NORTHEASTWARD UP
TOWARDS DBQ ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING INTO FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND POSSIBLY RFD IN A FEW
HOURS. OVERALL TIMING SPECIFICS AT THE TERMINALS IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH TO SUPPORT ANY IMMEDIATE CHANGES.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN SCATTERING THOUGH SOME BROKEN PATCH
MAY REMAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
FROM 18Z...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE. CIGS ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE WITH MAINLY MVFR
IN PLACE. A LOOK OUT THE WINDOW AT THE OFFICE SHOWS STEADY
SCATTERING OF THE LOWEST CLOUDS WHICH SUPPORTS THE THINKING THAT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOCUS TURNS
TO TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BUT FORCING WILL
INCREASE FAR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE UP TOWARDS RFD BY THEN BUT THE FOCUS FOR THE
MOST WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION SO
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BUT AT THIS POINT EARLY EVENING
IS FAVORED AT RFD WITH MID EVENING IN THE CHICAGO AREA AND
SLIGHTLY LATER AT GYY AS THINGS SAG SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT WILL BE
FAIRLY SLOW TO MOVE SO TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED LEADING TO A FAIRLY LONG DURATION OF THUNDER. TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL MAY BRING VSBY DOWN BELOW 1SM BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS
DETAIL IN THE TAF UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR. WINDS MAY BE
ERRATIC OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT TREND TO WEST THEN
NORTHWEST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT AS
WELL BUT VFR SHOULD BUILD IN.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IS LOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHRA/TSRA IS LIKELY THIS EVENING. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY-MONDAY...LOW CHANCES OF TSRA.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR LIKELY.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
244 AM CDT
STILL SEEING GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...BUT DO EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES EAST.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS SURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE LAKE
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH REGARDS TO OVERALL
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE LAKE THROUGH
MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN CENTRAL
PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST- NORTHWEST BEHIND THE STRONGER COLD
FRONTAL PUSH MONDAY NIGHT AND REACH 20 KT OR POSSIBLY HIGHER
TUESDAY.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
301 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
300 PM CDT
THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE POSTED SHORTLY.
TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER IOWA WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THIS EVENING ADDING FORCING FOR STORMS. A SURFACE LOW IS OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA AND ITS COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. A LINE OF STORMS WILL FORM ALONG
THE FRONT AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 850MB STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEST AT 30-40 KT AHEAD OF THE
LINE BUT ONLY AROUND 15 KT FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. TIMING
DIFFERS BETWEEN THE MODELS BUT THINKING A BLEND OF OUR LOCAL ARW AND
THE RAP LOOK REASONABLE. THE NAM LOOKS TOO FAST WHILE THE HRRR LOOKS
TOO SLOW.
THE LINE MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...BUT THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FLASH FLOODING. PWAT VALUES REMAIN HIGH AT
1.7-1.8 INCHES AND VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE WARNING
AREA FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
THIS STORM WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL
LIKELY BE ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
EASILY APPROACH 2 INCHES. IN ADDITION...SOME AREAS THIS MORNING
FROM COOK COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH PONTIAC AND GIBSON CITY SAW MULTIPLE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. THESE AREAS WILL BE THE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING AS WATER LEVELS ARE ALREADY
HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPLITS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A SECOND COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE SOUTH OF I-80
SO ONLY HAVE A CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF I-80. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME.
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM SUNDAY NIGHT FIRST ALONG THE
IL/WI STATE LINE AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH AS A VORTICITY STREAMER FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY THEN ONLY EXPECTING
SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM WITH THE STORMS DEVELOPING AND
COVERAGE.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY AND HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIGGER STORY
WILL BE THE COOL AIR THAT FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WHILE MONDAY/S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS CRISP WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS NE THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXTENDED
LOOKS DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT THROUGH AFTERNOON.
* LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED SOME TIME AROUND MID EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
* MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SCATTER TO VFR MID AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE. CIGS ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE WITH MAINLY MVFR
IN PLACE. A LOOK OUT THE WINDOW AT THE OFFICE SHOWS STEADY
SCATTERING OF THE LOWEST CLOUDS WHICH SUPPORTS THE THINKING THAT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOCUS TURNS
TO TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BUT FORCING WILL
INCREASE FAR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE UP TOWARDS RFD BY THEN BUT THE FOCUS FOR THE
MOST WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION SO
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BUT AT THIS POINT EARLY EVENING
IS FAVORED AT RFD WITH MID EVENING IN THE CHICAGO AREA AND
SLIGHTLY LATER AT GYY AS THINGS SAG SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT WILL BE
FAIRLY SLOW TO MOVE SO TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED LEADING TO A FAIRLY LONG DURATION OF THUNDER. TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL MAY BRING VSBY DOWN BELOW 1SM BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS
DETAIL IN THE TAF UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR. WINDS MAY BE
ERRATIC OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT TREND TO WEST THEN
NORTHWEST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT AS
WELL BUT VFR SHOULD BUILD IN.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IS LOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHRA/TSRA IS LIKELY THIS EVENING. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY-MONDAY...LOW CHANCES OF TSRA.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR LIKELY.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
244 AM CDT
STILL SEEING GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...BUT DO EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES EAST.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS SURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE LAKE
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH REGARDS TO OVERALL
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE LAKE THROUGH
MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN CENTRAL
PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST- NORTHWEST BEHIND THE STRONGER COLD
FRONTAL PUSH MONDAY NIGHT AND REACH 20 KT OR POSSIBLY HIGHER
TUESDAY.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
429 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
316 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTIVE
TIMING/COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. EARLY THIS MORNING AN AREA OF SHOWERS
WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. DEW PTS
WERE NUDGING UP TO THE MID 60S...WITH THE EXPECTED 70 DEG DEW PTS
JUST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWFA. PWAT VALUES LATER TDY ARE STILL
PROGGED TO NEAR 2"...AND THE LCL ARW8KM IS SUGGESTING THAT A FEW
POCKETS OF JUST OVER 2" PWAT VALUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF I-80 LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A
CHALLENGE...AS IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR TEMPS COULD
NUDGE UP A FEW DEGREES. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS IN THE LOW
TO NEAR MID 80S. WITH THE HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PARCELS...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO SOAR AND LIKELY BE A SLOW DIURNAL
CURVE TDY. CONFIDENCE OF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LOOKS
MINIMAL...AND MAY QUICKLY FILL BACK-IN.
THERE REMAINS A CONCERN ABOUT STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. THE
SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE DAY 1. THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO BE ALONG MOIST BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
IOWA EAST THROUGH NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUGGEST RATHER UNIFORM WIND AT 30-40KTS...HOWEVER THIS IS ALL AHEAD
OF THE POTENT TROUGH THAT WILL BE STARTING TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS EVENING. EXPECT AN MCS TO DEVELOP AND COULD BE SLOW
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE PRESENCE OF A WARM LYR ALOFT WILL LIKELY
CAP THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE UNTIL 21Z...THEN SHUD STEADILY DISSOLVE.
SO THE FOCUS FOR TIMING APPEARS TO BE MORE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERAL WEAK PIECES OF VORTICITY ARE PROGGED TO
SLIDE ALONG THE MOIST BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THUS IT IS POSSIBLE SOME TRAINING OF STORMS MAY
OCCUR...AND GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT FLOODING
CONCERNS COULD BE AN ISSUE.
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING...THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO BE
SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE APPEARS
TO HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE...AND COULD BRING AN END TO
THE CONVECTION A FEW HOURS AFT MIDNIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST CWFA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUN...WITH WEAK
DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE SFC COVERING WISC/NORTHERN IL. LCL ARW8KM HAS
ALSO BEEN TRENDING DRY WITH THE LATEST CYCLES...SO CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED AND WILL LEVERAGE THIS WITH A DRY FORECAST SUN. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE
RATHER CLOSE. THERMAL TEMPS WOULD STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A WARM
AFTN...SO HAVE HELD ONTO TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S SUN.
THE WEAK SFC RIDGE SHUD HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE EVE
HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MON. 500MB VORT WILL BE DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY MON. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR
ALOFT AND SOME THIN CLOUD COVER MON MORNING WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES
TO STEEPEN AND ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORM MON. SFC TEMPS
MON WILL BE STARTING THE COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MINIMAL
SPREAD AMONGST MEMBERS FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS. POTENT 500MB VORT WILL ARRIVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TUE...AND PRODUCE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
WARM BEYOND THE 60S AS THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH IS PROGGED AT 4 TO 6
DEG C. FORTUNATELY WITH BROAD SFC RIDGING ARRIVING TUE NGT AND
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL STEADILY
WARM INTO THE 70S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND DAYBREAK AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
MORNING
* CHANCE FOR TSRA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SATURDAY...WITH GREATER CHANCES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...WITH HEAVY
RAIN LIKELY.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 09Z...
AFTER A SLOW PROGRESSION...CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO LOWER EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH IT HAS LARGELY
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT 3500-4000 FEET. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
MVFR ARRIVAL BUT STILL FEEL THAT IN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI THAT
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING SOMEWHAT ON THE EXTENT OF THE MVFR CIGS...BUT
MOS GUIDANCE THE HRRR AND NARRE STILL SUGGESTING A PERIOD FROM
12-16Z OF POTENTIAL LOWER CEILINGS...THE RAP SAYING IT MAY ONLY BE
BRIEF. WILL HANG ONTO THE LOWER CEILINGS BUT NOT START THEM UNTIL
12Z.. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS AT A MINIMUM WITH NO OBVIOUS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE
STILL TOO LOW ON ANY TAF FOR ISOLATED THUNDER AS THUNDER HAS BEEN
LARGELY FROM KPNT SOUTHWARD...BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. STILL
HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE MOST ORGANIZED COUPLED FORCING FROM UPPER
LEVELS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN THE BIGGEST
CONCERNS...AND IT COULD BE A LONGER PERIOD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE FRONT IS NOT MOVING ALL THAT QUICKLY.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* LOW-MEDIUM IN CEILINGS DOWN TO 2000 FT DEVELOPING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK LOW IN TIMING OF SCATTERING THIS MORNING...
* MEDIUM IN NO TSRA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW IN
WHETHER TSRA WILL HOLD OFF THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM IN TSRA OCCURRING SATURDAY EVE.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY-MONDAY...LOW CHANCES OF TSRA.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR LIKELY.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
244 AM CDT
STILL SEEING GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...BUT DO EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES EAST.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS SURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE LAKE
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH REGARDS TO OVERALL
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE LAKE THROUGH
MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN CENTRAL
PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST- NORTHWEST BEHIND THE STRONGER COLD
FRONTAL PUSH MONDAY NIGHT AND REACH 20 KT OR POSSIBLY HIGHER
TUESDAY.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
330 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD WILL BE EXTENT OF CONVECTION AND SEVERE
THREAT. MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE
CONVECTION BETWEEN 3 TO 5 PM OVER CENTRAL IOWA BETWEEN US 20 AND US
30 THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SWINGING ACTIVITY OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 5 PM AND 3 AM. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS AT ODDS
WITH MORE FOCUS ON BANDING SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER NORTH OF US 20 AND
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR SOUTH... ESPECIALLY
NEARER 06Z ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER WHEN LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
ACROSS EXITING BOUNDARY. CURRENT MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTH
HALF NEARLY UNCAPPED WITH 3000 TO 3500 J/KG SBCAPE AND INCREASING
SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY DRIFTING SOUTH AND CURRENTLY
LOCATED FROM EAST OF MASON CITY SOUTHWEST TO ABOUT OMAHA. H700
TEMPS SUGGEST WEAK CAP OF 10C AT THAT LEVEL FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT
THAT TO WEAKEN YET BY LATE AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH
SHOW SOME DRYING AROUND H700 SO EXPECT THAT WIND WILL REMAIN THE
GREATER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. 0-3KM CAPE ALREADY NEAR 125 J/KG WITH LCL HTS NEAR 1000
TO 1250 M OVER THE SOUTH AS WELL. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 15 KFT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER QUITE HIGH AT 2 TO 2.25
INCHES AVAILABLE THROUGH THE EVENING SOUTH HALF THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK RAINFALL TOTAL OF +2 INCHES WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS. ALONG WITH THAT...A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED WATER
ISSUES AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING REMAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. WITH RATHER WEAK CONVERGENCE AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT CONDITIONAL ON CAP BREAKING...WILL KEEP THUNDER
CHANCES AT SLIGHT/CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SOUTH AND
THEN INCREASE POP THROUGH 23-03Z TIME FRAME. ACROSS THE NORTH
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NEARING AN END AROUND 00Z-02Z. LOOKING AT ALL
THE DATA...FEEL THE HRRR AND HOP WRF MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH
LACK OF THUNDER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. LATEST 4 KM
WRF SHOWS INCREASING COVERAGE FROM US 20 SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...MATCHING UP BETTER WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SOLUTIONS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO NEAR 60 NORTH AND IN THE UPPER 60S SOUTH
AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO
FILTER INTO THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SECONDARY TROUGH/COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH
ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY RECOVERING FROM CONVECTION TONIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LESS THAN TODAY BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING WITH BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...SO KEPT SLIGHT POPS GOING IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT TO BRING THE WELL ANTICIPATED
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. GOOD MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT BY THE AFTERNOON AND
TWEAKED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MENTION THE NON-
DIURNAL TEMP TREND ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AS SUN ANGLE STILL HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARM TEMPS UP IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VERY COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
TO FILTER INTO THE STATE AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO +5C TO +6C BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT MENTION OF NEAR RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN IOWA INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z TUESDAY AND EXPECTING DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DEVELOP. SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROP TO AROUND 50F
BY TUESDAY MORNING AND WITH THE RADIATION COOLING EVENT...COULD SEE
SOME SHALLOW FOG DEVELOP IF WINDS DROP OFF ENTIRELY. SOMETHING TO
CONSIDER WITH NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.
COOL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE
IT BEGINS MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO BRING PRECIPITATION
TO CENTRAL IOWA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...12/18Z
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHRA
CONTINUE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN IOWA WITH GENERALLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH. EXPECTING LINE
OF SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND MVFR VSBY. TIMING FOR
NORTHERN AREAS BETWEEN 19 AND 00Z...FROM US 20 SOUTH TO HIGHWAY
30...22Z THROUGH 03Z AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 FROM 23Z THROUGH 06Z.
BEST CHANCES FOR SVR CONVECTION WILL BE FOR KDSM AND KOTM AS MAX
INSTABILITY EXPECTED THERE FROM 21Z THROUGH 03Z. SVR THREAT MOST
LIKELY WIND GUSTS ABOVE 45 TO 50 KTS. HAVE NOT ADDED TO TAFS AT
THIS TIME...DUE TO TIMING/UNCERTAINTY CONSIDERATIONS...BUT WILL
MONITOR/ADD AS NEEDED WHEN TRENDS BECOME MORE EVIDENT. AFT 06Z
MOST AREA WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT NW WINDS BECOMING 10-15KTS AFT
15Z SUNDAY... ESPECIALLY NORTH HALF. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
340 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
19Z water vapor imagery shows a broad mid level ridge centered over
northern OK/southern KS while a deep closed low spun over Manitoba
and was beginning to move south. One trough axis appears to have
rotated through NEB with a second shortwave trough digging southeast
through ND. At the surface a cold front stretched from northwest KS
into central IA, and has been slowly moving southeast this afternoon.
For tonight and Sunday, the models continue to show the cold front
moving through the forecast area late tonight. This seems to make
since with the initial mid level trough rotating through IA tonight
and the ridge overhead breaking down. Most of the model guidance
shows a well defined band of frontogenesis within the mid levels of
the atmosphere along with a narrow axis of moisture. This appears to
be the main driver of precip tonight and Sunday as forecast
soundings continue to show limited moisture in the lower atmosphere.
So think there is a good chance for elevated showers and storms to
develop this evening and overnight rather than deep moist convection
from surface parcels. Not sure if the HRRR is handling the
frontogenesis as well as it depicts convection and is the reason it
has been one of the drier solutions. Would not be surprised to see
precip lingering through the morning much like it has over
northeastern NEB and northern IA today. Since I`m expecting precip
to be elevated, chances for severe weather appear to be very limited
due to modest elevated instability from 700-500MB lapse rates only
around 6 C/km.
There does not appear to be a big surge in cold dry air behind the
front tonight. Obs upstream show decent moisture pooling behind the
boundary. With mostly cloudy skies anticipated behind the front and
dewpoints remaining in the mid and upper 60s behind the front, think
lows will once again be mild. Areas along the NEB state line should
see lows in the upper 60s while elsewhere is expected to remain in
the lower 70s. Think highs Sunday will depend on how much insolation
reaches the ground. With skies likely to remain partly to mostly
cloudy across east central KS from the elevated showers, have highs
in the mid 80s across Anderson and Coffey counties. Elsewhere think there
could be enough sunshine for highs to reach the upper 80s to around
90. Considered maybe bumping highs up a degree or two from what I
have now since there isn`t a lot of cold air advection behind the
front, but held off since models show some cooling at 850 and the
thermal ridge setting up further south.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
Will linger a low pop across the far southeast counties of the cwa for
Sunday evening...otherwise will leave the remainder of the forecast dry
overnight except for the far northwest corner with the approach of the
next shortwave trough. As this wave and stronger cold front moves
through...mid level frontogenesis will increase from north to south
through midday with decreasing lift in the mid to late afternoon
across the southern cwa. Will therefore go dry all areas of the
county warning area. Rainfall amounts will generally average a tenth
to a third of an inch during the day.
Much cooler and drier air works southward across the cwa through the
night with 850 temps by sunrise Tuesday falling into the 7 to 10 deg
C range with diminishing winds and mostly clear skies. This will
probably be the coolest morning of the week with lows in the low to
middle 50s all areas which will be near or just above record lows
for July 15th.
By late Tuesday night models try to bring the remnants of an MCS
east and southeast across central Ks which may clip the far
southwest corner of the cwa by sunrise...then the southern half of
the cwa during the day. Have inserted low pops across this
area...and inched low temps up due to more cloudcover...but still
unseasonably cool in the middle to upper 50s and highs in the 70s.
As another northwest flow shortwave moves from the central high
plains into the southern plains...most of the precip through the end
of the week should remain south of the cwa with weak upper ridging
building back into the area by the weekend. Will keep the remainder
of the fcst beyond Wednesday dry with a gradual warming trend. Highs
will warm through the 80s as low temps moderate through the 60s to
around 70 by Saturday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
VFR conditions should prevail through this evening due to the
surface front remaining north of the terminals while mid level
ridging sits overhead. The NAM and GFS show a decent band of mid
level frontogenesis collocated with some saturation directly behind
the surface front. Because of this think high based SCT SH and
embedded TS are possible on the north side of the boundary as it
moves south late tonight. Therefore have maintained a VCTS for the
early morning hours. Elevated instability appears to be limited so
precip looks to be light and there may not even be a VSBY
restriction with the precip. Will have to reevaluate this as the
front gets closer.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
614 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 614 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CIRRUS HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION...BUT IT
WAS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. INCREASED SKY COVER FOR EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT STAYED WITH A TREND TOWARD THE LOWER VALUES OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT. DRY SURFACE AIR AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION TONIGHT WOULD FAVOR SOME RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES...AND HAVE LOWERED VALLEY MINS JUST A BIT FOR TONIGHT.
WITHOUT OVERCAST SKIES OR SIGNIFICANT WIND...CLIMATOLOGY STRONGLY
FAVORS AT LEAST SOME FOG IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SO...DESPITE THE DRY AIR...HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN VALLEYS FOR
LATE TONIGHT...BUT PREVIOUS THINKING OF LESS SUBSTANTIAL FOG THAN IN
RECENT NIGHTS SHOULD STILL PLAY OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY TIED TO TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER SW VA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF TN AND
NC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KY IS AHEAD OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE OF
70 PLUS DEW POINT TEMPERATURES OVER IL AND MO. SATELLITE...RADAR AND
LIGHTNING TRENDS ALL SHOW CONTINUING WEAKENING OF CONVECTION OVER
INDIANA...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME DEVELOPMENT INTO WESTERN KY. THE
SHORT RANGE RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW OVERALL DECAY OF CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST...AND ONLY IMPACT IN OUR AREA WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE IN EASTERN KY THIS
AFTERNOON...NOTE DEW POINT AS LOW AS 48 AT QUICKSAND MESONET...THERE
WILL BE EVEN LESS FOG TONIGHT AS THERE WAS LAST NIGHT. GUIDANCE NOT
HANDLING THE DRY AIR VERY WELL...AND EXPECT THERE TO BE ABOUT A 5
DEGREE RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WITH MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG DEVELOPING IN A CORRIDOR
NORTH OF THE OH RIVER ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND OH. BEST SHEAR WILL ALSO
BE NORTH OF THE OH RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OH AND INDIANA AND THEN
PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD ALSO BE IN A CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY GREATER
INSTABILITY AND ALSO PARTIALLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AT HINTING AT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE SE
FORECAST AREA. CONSIDERING ALL THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FIRST ON SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THE LAST TO SEE THE RAIN CHANCES.
THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY HAS SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM
BEST SUPPORT...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DECREASE. THE DAY 2 SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH ONLY OUR FAR NW COUNTIES HAVING A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH 12Z MONDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD. WITH PW
INCREASING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TO 1.7 TO POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 2
INCHES SOME HEAVY RAINERS ARE DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH
OF THE AREA HAS BEEN PLACED IN THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
VALID 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
HOWEVER...AND PART OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN D1 DROUGHT. INITIALLY...
AT LEAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS THE FIRST HALF OF THIS OUTLOOK
PERIOD THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOOKS BE ISOLATED AT WORST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME DECENT CONTINUITY THROUGH THE LAST FEW
CYCLES BUT STILL APPEARS OUTSIDE THE RANGE OF OTHER SOLUTIONS AND
TOO PROGRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED AMPLITUDE OF
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT IS ADVERTISING A SLOWER SYSTEM THAT PUNCHES FURTHER SOUTH
THAN OTHER MODELS AND IS ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF
SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE MID TERM. JUST THE SAME MODELS ROUGHLY AGREE
ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. THE MAIN...AND
MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CROP UP RESOLVING SURFACE FEATURES AND
THE TIMING OF SFC SYSTEMS THROUGH OUR AREA. ATTM TENDENCY IS TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH THE MID RANGE AFTER USING A
CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO INITIALIZE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL STICK TO A BLENDED APPROACH FOR THE END OF
THE FORECAST WINDOW AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY EMERGES FROM THE PACIFIC
NW/CANADA CAUSING THE PATTERN TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED...BUT ALSO
ALLOWING FOR THE MEAN STORM TRACK TO RETURN NORTHWARD CLOSER TO OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS.
HEIGHTS FALL DROP STEADILY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS A
SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF ITS ENERGY
INTO THE THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN A LARGE
DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS BY MID WEEK. SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BY LATE SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND STRONGER...FASTER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THE FIRST SLIDING THROUGH OUR AREA AS SOON AS
MONDAY NIGHT...OR AS LATE AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON WHICH
MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IT STILL SEEMS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING TROUBLE
RESOLVING THE TIMING OR PASSAGE OF THESE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...
WITH A TENDENCY TO MERGE EACH DISTINCT BOUNDARY INTO A SINGLE FINAL
SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY TOO QUICKLY.
WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH
THE TIME OF DAY AND EXACT AMOUNT OF SUNLIGHT WILL BE SOMETHING THAT
WILL NEED TO BE FACTORED IN. AS IS TYPICAL...THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY
MORE UNSTABLE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECAUSE OF ITS WET BIAS. THE NAM
IS ALSO SHOWING HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING TO MONDAY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. PWATS AND LIFT THROUGH THE
COLUMN ARE MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE AS WELL WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS.
EXPECT THE TRUTH WILL LIE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE THOUGH THAT MAY BE
A BAD ASSUMPTION GIVEN THE GFS MIGHT BE HAVING TROUBLE
DISTINGUISHING SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DETAILS. FREEZING LEVELS
REMAIN HIGH. SO WHILE SOME HEAVY RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...STORM
MOTION IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT HYDRO PROBLEMS SHOULD NOT BECOME TOO MUCH
OF A PROBLEM...AT LEAST BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE. BIGGEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY LIE ACROSS OUR BLUE GRASS COUNTIES
SUNDAY...BUT THEN EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD TO ENCOMPASS OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY.
WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT UNSEASONABLE COLD WEATHER FOR THE PEAK OF
SUMMER HEATING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF UPCOMING WEEK. ECMWF H850 TEMPS
DROP TO AROUND 8C AND THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF. ECMWF
MOS GUIDANCE IS QUITE COOL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S AND LOWS SOLIDLY IN THE 50S FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE
THERE IS SOME MODERATION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE IS A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOME RECORD COLD MORNING LOWS AND EVEN A FEW
RECORD LOW MAXES. GFS MOS IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER BUT HAS SHOWN SIGNS
OF COOLING. PAST EXPERIENCE HAS TAUGHT THAT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
MAKES A BEST FIRST GUESS...AFTER A TWEAK TOWARDS THE TYPICALLY MORE
ACCURATE ECMWF MOS.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE BASE OF
THE BY THEN LIFTING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BRING A THREAT OF RAIN
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5K TO 6K FEET WITH LIGHT WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE
LOCAL WEATHER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW VA...TN AND NC. THERE WAS LESS FOG THIS MORNING THAN
YESTERDAY MORNING AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. AS SUCH WILL
LEAVE FOG OUT OF TAFS FOR THIS FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AGAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OH AND
INDIANA.
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
316 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY TIED TO TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER SW VA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF TN AND
NC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KY IS AHEAD OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE OF
70 PLUS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OVER IL AND MO. SATELLITE...RADAR AND
LIGHTNING TRENDS ALL SHOW CONTINUING WEAKENING OF CONVECTION OVER
INDIANA...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME DEVELOPMENT INTO WESTERN KY. THE
SHORT RANGE RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW OVERALL DECAY OF CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST...AND ONLY IMPACT IN OUR AREA WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE IN EASTERN KY THIS
AFTERNOON...NOTE DEWPOINT AS LOW AS 48 AT QUICKSAND MESONET...THERE
WILL BE EVEN LESS FOG TONIGHT AS THERE WAS LAST NIGHT. GUIDANCE NOT
HANDLING THE DRY AIR VERY WELL...AND EXPECT THERE TO BE ABOUT A 5
DEGREE RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WITH MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG DEVELOPING IN A CORRIDOR
NORTH OF THE OH RIVER ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND OH. BEST SHEAR WILL ALSO
BE NORTH OF THE OH RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OH AND INDIANA AND THEN
PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD ALSO BE IN A CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY GREATER
INSTABILITY AND ALSO PARTIALLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AT HINTING AT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE SE
FORECAST AREA. CONSIDERING ALL THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FIRST ON SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THE LAST TO SEE THE RAIN CHANCES.
THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY HAS SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM
BEST SUPPORT...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DECREASE. THE DAY 2 SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH ONLY OUR FAR NW COUNTIES HAVING A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH 12Z MONDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD. WITH PW
INCREASING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TO 1.7 TO POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 2
INCHES SOME HEAVY RAINERS ARE DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH
OF THE AREA HAS BEEN PLACED IN THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
VALID 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
HOWEVER...AND PART OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN D1 DROUGHT. INITIALLY...
AT LEAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS THE FIRST HALF OF THIS OUTLOOK
PERIOD THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOOKS BE ISOLATED AT WORST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME DECENT CONTINUITY THROUGH THE LAST FEW
CYCLES BUT STILL APPEARS OUTSIDE THE RANGE OF OTHER SOLUTIONS AND
TOO PROGRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED AMPLITUDE OF
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT IS ADVERTISING A SLOWER SYSTEM THAT PUNCHES FURTHER SOUTH
THAN OTHER MODELS AND IS ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF
SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE MID TERM. JUST THE SAME MODELS ROUGHLY AGREE
ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. THE MAIN...AND
MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CROP UP RESOLVING SURFACE FEATURES AND
THE TIMING OF SFC SYSTEMS THROUGH OUR AREA. ATTM TENDENCY IS TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH THE MID RANGE AFTER USING A
CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO INITIALIZE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL STICK TO A BLENDED APPROACH FOR THE END OF
THE FORECAST WINDOW AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY EMERGES FROM THE PACIFIC
NW/CANADA CAUSING THE PATTERN TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED...BUT ALSO
ALLOWING FOR THE MEAN STORM TRACK TO RETURN NORTHWARD CLOSER TO OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS.
HEIGHTS FALL DROP STEADILY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS A
SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF ITS ENERGY
INTO THE THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN A LARGE
DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS BY MID WEEK. SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BY LATE SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND STRONGER...FASTER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THE FIRST SLIDING THROUGH OUR AREA AS SOON AS
MONDAY NIGHT...OR AS LATE AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON WHICH
MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IT STILL SEEMS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING TROUBLE
RESOLVING THE TIMING OR PASSAGE OF THESE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...
WITH A TENDENCY TO MERGE EACH DISTINCT BOUNDARY INTO A SINGLE FINAL
SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY TOO QUICKLY.
WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH
THE TIME OF DAY AND EXACT AMOUNT OF SUNLIGHT WILL BE SOMETHING THAT
WILL NEED TO BE FACTORED IN. AS IS TYPICAL...THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY
MORE UNSTABLE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECAUSE OF ITS WET BIAS. THE NAM
IS ALSO SHOWING HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING TO MONDAY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. PWATS AND LIFT THROUGH THE
COLUMN ARE MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE AS WELL WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS.
EXPECT THE TRUTH WILL LIE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE THOUGH THAT MAY BE
A BAD ASSUMPTION GIVEN THE GFS MIGHT BE HAVING TROUBLE
DISTINGUISHING SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DETAILS. FREEZING LEVELS
REMAIN HIGH. SO WHILE SOME HEAVY RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...STORM
MOTION IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT HYDRO PROBLEMS SHOULD NOT BECOME TOO MUCH
OF A PROBLEM...AT LEAST BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE. BIGGEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY LIE ACROSS OUR BLUE GRASS COUNTIES
SUNDAY...BUT THEN EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD TO ENCOMPASS OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY.
WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT UNSEASONABLE COLD WEATHER FOR THE PEAK OF
SUMMER HEATING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF UPCOMING WEEK. ECMWF H850 TEMPS
DROP TO AROUND 8C AND THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF. ECMWF
MOS GUIDANCE IS QUITE COOL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S AND LOWS SOLIDLY IN THE 50S FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE
THERE IS SOME MODERATION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE IS A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOME RECORD COLD MORNING LOWS AND EVEN A FEW
RECORD LOW MAXES. GFS MOS IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER BUT HAS SHOWN SIGNS
OF COOLING. PAST EXPERIENCE HAS TAUGHT THAT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
MAKES A BEST FIRST GUESS...AFTER A TWEAK TOWARDS THE TYPICALLY MORE
ACCURATE ECMWF MOS.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE BASE OF
THE BY THEN LIFTING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BRING A THREAT OF RAIN
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5K TO 6K FEET WITH LIGHT WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE
LOCAL WEATHER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW VA...TN AND NC. THERE WAS LESS FOG THIS MORNING THAN
YESTERDAY MORNING AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. AS SUCH WILL
LEAVE FOG OUT OF TAFS FOR THIS FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AGAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OH AND
INDIANA.
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
116 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY TIED TO TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT ADD ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT.
THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN INDIANA IS AHEAD
OF NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REPRESENTS THE
LEADING EDGE OF 70 PLUS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OVER IL...MO AND
WESTERN KY. SATELLITE...RADAR AND LIGHTNING TRENDS ALL SHOW
CONTINUING WEAKENING OF CONVECTION OVER INDIANA. THE SHORT RANGE RAP
AND HRRR ALSO SHOW CONTINUING DECAY OF THIS CONVECTION...AND ONLY
IMPACT ON OUR AREA WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. QUITE
DRY HERE IN EASTERN KY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS
THE LOWER 50S. WILL BE UPDATING NDFD FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE MENTION OF EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG HAS
BEEN REMOVED FROM THE ZFP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SFC
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BRING TO A WARM AND DRY DAY TO ALL
AREAS ONCE VALLEY FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
EARLY THIS MORNING...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
STATES WITH RIDGING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND ALSO WEST
AND NORTHWEST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE
INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON BAY REGION WITH SOME BROAD TROUGHING TO ITS SOUTH ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL US AND NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGIONS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. EXTENDING SOUTH FROM SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WAS A COLD FRONT THAT DOWN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF A BOUNDARY THAT CROSSED
THE AREA EARLIER IN THE WEST EXTENDED FROM SFC LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES FIRST NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
AND THEN SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.
EARLY TODAY...MAINLY RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE WITHIN AND HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE. OVERALL...VIS
REDUCTIONS WITH THIS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ON FRIDAY AM.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY DAWN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
THE INITIAL SFC COLD FRONT EAST MORE QUICKLY THAN SOUTH A RIDGING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE OLD BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
SFC WAVE WORKS NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL ALSO SEND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE OLD BOUNDARY NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN A RETURN
OF MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD MOVE FURTHER SOUTH BY THE END OF TH PERIOD
AND LEAD TO FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND LOCALLY.
DURING THIS PERIOD THE INITIAL COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH NEAR THE OH
RIVER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A MORE POTENT FRONT WILL
ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST ALSO BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW SHOULD BE AFTER THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOME SFC HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BEGIN TO BECOME UNSTABLE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS WELL. SOME ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED AT THAT POINT. SHEAR SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST...BUT MODELS DIFFER IN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. SPC HAS
PLACE THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND PENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THE SOUTHWEST END OF A PREFRONTAL
LINE OF STORMS MIGHT REACH THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA...WHEN A LINE POSSIBLY ARRIVES LATE ON SUNDAY WOULD DETERMINE
WHETHER ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT WOULD OCCUR. IT WOULD SEEM HOWEVER IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN
BE REALIZED THAT MONDAY WOULD BE THE DAY DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOST
PROBABLE...AHEAD OF A SHARPER FRONT AND STRONGER MID LEVEL SYSTEM.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
WEATHER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THE MODEL DATA ALL SUGGEST DECENT INSTABILITY...GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM THE SOUTH...AND SOME WIND SHEAR DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. THE TRIGGER FOR ALL THE EXPECTED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE A SLOW MOVING AND FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS AND STRONGEST DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHOULD THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS PAN
OUT THAT IS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT...KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS NEW AIR MASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE VERY COMFORTABLE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD EASILY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA
BENEATH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES. THE MERCURY SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB A
BIT HIGHER TO END THE WEEK AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY. AFTER A DRY PERIOD DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN MIGHT BE IN THE OFFING
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR
SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5K TO 6K FEET WITH LIGHT WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE
LOCAL WEATHER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW VA...TN AND NC. THERE WAS LESS FOG THIS MORNING THAN
YESTERDAY MORNING AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. AS SUCH WILL
LEAVE FOG OUT OF TAFS FOR THIS FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AGAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OH AND
INDIANA.
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1030 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT LIKELY CROSSING THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 14Z...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS IS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST FROM THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY.
UPDATED POP/WX FORECAST BASED ON 11Z HRRR WITH A FARTHER EAST
FOCUS OF AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONVECTIVE
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND PROGRESS OVER AT
LEAST THE WESTERN BALT-WASH SUBURBS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITORED.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND DISSIPATE WITH THE SETTING
OF THE SUN. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOG PRONE AREAS AND ALSO PLACES THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THAT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. GFS HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY DAY/S END...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES.
MODELS ALSO SHOW A DECENT VORT MAX AFFECTING THE CWA...PROMOTING AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SHEAR STILL LOOKS
BEST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF VORT MAX MAY
PROMOTE A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH/MOVE AWAY SUNDAY
EVENING BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWA AS FASTER ADVANCE OF A TROUGH/COLD FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WITHIN THIS ZONE.
LEANED CLOSER TO MAV FOR MAXIMA SUNDAY GIVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS...MAV/MET WERE SIMILAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FCST FOR THE BGNG OF THE WK WL BE DOMINATED BY AN INCRSGLY AMPLIFIED
H5 PTTN...WHERE S/WV ENERGY WL DIVE ACRS THE GRTLKS...PUSHING A WELL
DEFINED CDFNT TWD THE ERN SEABOARD. AS CAN BE XPCTD W/ ANY ANOMALOUS
SOLN...VARIANCES EXIST AMONGST GDNC MEMBERS. REGARDLESS OF SPECIFICS
THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT CWFA MON WL BE W/IN WM SECTOR... AFFECTED BY
A HOT/HUMID/UNSTBL AMS. A LEE TROF AXIS MAY PROVIDE A NCSRY FOCUSING
MECHANISM...ALTHO ANOTHER SOURCE OF UVV WUD RESIDE ACRS THE NWRN CWFA
DUE TO APPROACHING BULK SHEAR AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HV OPTED TO PLACE
FOCUS...BY WAY OF LIKELY POPS...THERE. XPCT UPDRAFTS TO BE VIGOROUS
ENUF TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES...AND HV CARRIED LKLY POPS INTO THE I-95
CRRDR BY EVNG. ALL NCSRY INGREDIENTS AVBL FOR TSTMS TO NOT ONLY
BECOME SVR...BUT ALSO BE ORGANIZED. JUST NEED TO SEE HOW IT ALL
SHAKES OUT.
AM THINKING THAT THE GFS MAY BE A LTL TOO QUICK W/ PROGRESSION OF
CDFNT. ITS TIMING WL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE FATE FOR TUE. A FASTER
FNT WUD CURTAIN SVR TSTM CHCS. TOO MANY DEBRIS CLDS WUD YIELD THE
SAME OUTCOME. EITHER WAY...THE I-95 CRRDR STANDS THE BEST CHC AT
RECEIVING MEASUREABLE PCPN...WHICH WARRANTS LKLY POPS TUE. TO THE
W...POPS HELD BACK AT CHC LVLS. SVR TSTM RISK FOR BOTH MON AND TUE
WL BE CONT TO BE CARRIED IN THE HWO.
MAXT MON SIMLR TO PRVS FCST...GOING A PINCH ABV GDNC TO ACCT FOR
WARM H8 TEMPS AND AMPLE INSOLATION. TUE MAXT NEARER CLIMO DUE TO
XPCTD CLDS. IN FACT...W OF BLURDG A BIT BLO CLIMO. THIS FCST PD MAY
HV THE HIEST ERROR POTL IN THE XTNDD FCST. STAYED WARM FOR MIN-T MON
NGT...AS DEWPTS NEAR 70F WL INHIBIT SUBSTANTIVE COOLING.
BY TUE NGT-WED...CDFNT WL BE PUSHING AWAY FM CWFA...PERMITTING CNDN
HIPRES TO BLD. THIS HIGH WL BE THE CONTROLLING WX INFLUENCE FOR THE
REST OF THE WK. TEMPS/DEWPTS WL BE REFRESHING FOR JULY IN THE MID
ATLC.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...MRB/CHO MOST VULNERABLE. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE
COULD BE CONVECTION MOVING EAST TO AFFECT IAD LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE LOW...AND HAVE RESTRICTED CHANCES ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
IF SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
CHO/MRB. HIGHER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH
BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND A SHORTWAVE. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL TERMINALS.
FLGT RESTRICTIONS LKLY AT TIMES MON-TUE INVOF TSRA. VFR WL PREVAIL
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME...BUT BRIEF PDS AOB IFR PSBL.
HIPRES BLDS WED. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SLY FLOW 5-10 KT THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST FROM THE AREA.
SCA IS EFFECT FOR THE MAIN OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND INTO THE
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LULL
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT IT/S POSSIBLE WINDS INCREASE INTO SCA
CRITERIA AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
INTERVALS OF TSRA LKLY MON-TUE...EACH POSING A GUSTY WIND THREAT.
GRADIENT FLOW MAY BE ENUF TO PLACE WATERS ON THE CUSP OF SCA
ANYWAYS. ANY ADDTL WIND WUD NECESSITATE SMW/S. THE FINAL WAVE WUD BE
A CDFNT. ATTM GDNC NOT SUGGESTING GUSTY WNDS IN NW FLOW
POST-FROPA...BUT BASED ON TEMP CONTRAST...SUSPECT THAT WL CHG.
THERE/S A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHEN CFP WUD BE. SINCE THATS
AT THE END OF THE MARINE PD...WL OMIT ATTM. LATER FCSTS CAN ADDRESS
THESE DETAILS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ARE A COUPLE TENTHS FOOT ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL
PREDICTION THIS MORNING. THIS ANOMALY WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS INTO TONIGHT. THIS INCREASE AND A FULL MOON SOON
WILL ALLOW WATER LEVELS TO APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
AT SENSITIVE SITES LIKE ANNAPOLIS DURING THE PREFERRED SUNDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ531-539>541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HTS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BAJ/BPP/HTS
MARINE...BAJ/BPP/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
748 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND THE LOW WITH SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8C/KM AND DAYTIME
HEATING SUPPORTED SCT/ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS FROM NE MN INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NW WI. OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST WINDS PREVAILED OVER
UPPER MI WITH A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AROUND A 997 MB LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY.
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SAGS TOWARD THE NRN LAKES...EXPECT
SOME ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP INTO WRN UPPER MI
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE PCPN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH. MODERATE/STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR
CONV AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST BY 06Z AND EAST OVERNIGHT
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT PCPN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MON...MID 700-500 MB TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY (700 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -6C) FOR NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE
LAND AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
MUCAPE VALUES OF 400 J/KG MAY BE POSSIBLE...WITH ONLY SHALLOW/NARROW
CAPE EXPECTED...AND LACK OF LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON UPSTREAM...NO
MENTION OF TSRA WAS ADDED. MAX TEMPS WILL STAY WELL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM NW FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
MAIN ISSUES THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB LOW WILL
BE CENTERED OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN AROUND 00Z/15. 1000-500MB RH
SHOWS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH CO-LOCATED DEEP LAYER
FORCING...AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING QCONV. THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SET UP
LINGERS ALONG WITH A GENERAL DIURNAL NATURE TO THE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH 18Z/15...REACHING THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THE
BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THAT
AREA...HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE U.P. TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WITH CONTINUED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. HEIGHT RISES WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE
WESTERN U.P. BY 18Z/15 ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE WESTERN U.P. TO BEGIN DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS 4C TO 5C.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
COULD STAY IN THE 40S THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE WELL
BELOW THE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHICH IS AROUND 77F/55F FOR
MAX AND MIN TEMP RESPECTIVELY FOR THE NWS OFFICE.
ADDITIONALLY...DROPPED THE TEMPERATURES A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS AS IF DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA
ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE OVER THE INLAND WEST. CLOUDS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER
THE FAR EAST HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS IN THAT AREA A BIT WARMER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...TREND FOR QUIET
WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA...REACHING NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NEAR THE U.P. BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS QUITE FAR OUT FOR SPECIFIC TIMING BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE EC HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
ITS TREND OF FLIP FLOPPING DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
SHOWERY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING IN OVER THE NEXT 24HRS AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
SHRA ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR MON...THERE MAY BE A FEW SHRA TONIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. INITIALLY...LOW-LEVELS ARE DRY...SO VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE THRU THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LATER
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AT KIWD/KCMX...AND MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY THEN PREVAIL THRU MON. AT KSAW...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN THAT CIGS FALL TO MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
EXPECT THAT THE GUSTY WNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW
20 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
425 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
WRN HUDSON BAY INTO NRN MANITOBA. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SRN
MANITOBA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT NEARING WINNIPEG. FARTHER SOUTH...A WEAKER SHRTWV FROM ERN MN
INTO WRN WI COMBINED WITH MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCH) SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA FROM SE MN INTO
CNTRL AND NRN WI. CONVERGENCE ALON LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHERE MLCAPE HAS CLIMBED TO NEAR 1K J/KG HAS
TRIGGERED ISOLD ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FROM FAR NW DELTA COUNTY INTO NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY.
TONIGHT...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES INLAND FROM CNTRL INTO ERN UPPER MI INTO THIS
EVENING TIL THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SHRA/TSRA OVER NRN WI AS SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THEY MAY EXPAND INTO SRN UPPER MI AND POSSIBLE TOWARD
MQT/P53 AS THE WI SHRTWV ADVANCES TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS WOULD FAVOR KEEPING HIGHER
COVERAGE/POPS MAINLY OVER THE FAR S/SE CWA. ADDITIONAL SHRA AND
POSSIBLY ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE MANITOBA FRONT/SHRTWV
MOVE INTO UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE PCPN FOCUS ARRIVES
WHEN MUCAPE HAS DIMINISHED TO 400 J/KG OR LESS...ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED.
SUNDAY...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHRA DEPART FROM THE FAR ERN CWA
EARLY...BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WITH WNW WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 6C-8C RANGE...MAX
READINGS SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM NW
TO SE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED
OVER JAMES BAY AROUND 00Z/14 WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY/CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER. THIS
WILL PLACE THE UPPER PENINUSLA AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY IN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. THE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF WEDGE OF DRY AIR PUSHES
THROUGH THE CWA. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA...WILL APPROACH
THE FAR WESTERN U.P. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE PARENT SURFACE LOW INTO NORTHERN MN. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP THE BETTER FORCING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE U.P.
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT FROM JAMES BAY 12Z/14 TO
CENTRAL QUEBEC BY 18Z/15. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE TROUGH TO PUSH
ACROSS THE U.P. THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB CLOSED
LOW OVER NORTHERN MN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE U.P. AND REACH THE
QUEBEC/SOUTHERN ONTARIO BORDER BY 18Z/15. AS FAR AS PRECIP
GOES...HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...DUE LARGELY TO THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH/INCREASED 1000-500MB RH/VORT MAX PRESSING THROUGH THE U.P.
ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
ONCE THE BETTER FORCING EXITS THE REGION MONDAY
EVENING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. STILL KEPT
ONGOING CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL 500MB AND INCREASED MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...WITH THE GFS HAS BEEN
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE THE EC/GEM KEEP THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE U.P. THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
EXITING THE CWA BY 00Z/16. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EC/GEM LENDING MORE SUPPORT TO THESE
SOLUTIONS. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING THROUGH THE AREA PULLING 850MB
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 4 TO 5C. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE
60S ACROSS MANY AREAS...WHILE NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
AROUND 77 DEGREES.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...VERY QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS KEEPS THE HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE EC SLIDES THE HIGH
EASTWARD...ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA. WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES WILL STICK WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR
SATURDAY..WHICH BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FAR WESTERN U.P.
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIODS WITH SCT DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA REMAINING SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH A STRONG FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT...W WINDS MAY GUST OVER 20 KTS AT KCMX AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT IWD/SAW WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING BY LATE SUN MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT SHARPLY TO THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THERE MAY BE SOME WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS AT LEAST BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT OVER WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LK SUPERIOR BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF FOG ARE CURRENTLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE STRONGER FRONT AS
STRONG DRY ADVECTION TAKES OVER. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KTS AT
TIMES INTO EARLY THIS WEEK IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
419 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
WRN HUDSON BAY INTO NRN MANITOBA. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SRN
MANITOBA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT NEARING WINNIPEG. FARTHER SOUTH...A WEAKER SHRTWV FROM ERN MN
INTO WRN WI COMBINED WITH MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCH) SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA FROM SE MN INTO
CNTRL AND NRN WI. CONVERGENCE ALON LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHERE MLCAPE HAS CLIMBED TO NEAR 1K J/KG HAS
TRIGGERED ISOLD ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FROM FAR NW DELTA COUNTY INTO NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY.
TONIGHT...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES INLAND FROM CNTRL INTO ERN UPPER MI INTO THIS
EVENING TIL THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SHRA/TSRA OVER NRN WI AS SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THEY MAY EXPAND INTO SRN UPPER MI AND POSSIBLE TOWARD
MQT/P53 AS THE WI SHRTWV ADVANCES TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS WOULD FAVOR KEEPING HIGHER
COVERAGE/POPS MAINLY OVER THE FAR S/SE CWA. ADDITIONAL SHRA AND
POSSIBLY ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE MANITOBA FRONT/SHRTWV
MOVE INTO UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE PCPN FOCUS ARRIVES
WHEN MUCAPE HAS DIMINISHED TO 400 J/KG OR LESS...ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED.
SUNDAY...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHRA DEPART FROM THE FAR ERN CWA
EARLY...BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WITH WNW WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 6C-8C RANGE...MAX
READINGS SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM NW
TO SE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA 12Z SUN WITH
A 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER AIR
PATTERN AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA 12Z MON WITH THE LOW MOVING OVER THE
AREA ON MON. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA ON MON...EXPECT SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE
PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON MON INTO MON NIGHT.
WILL HAVE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE ERN CWA SUN MORNING AND
THEN GO DRY FOR SUN AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. WITH APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON MON...WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY IN
A FEW PLACES MON WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING HAVING THE HIGHEST POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING MON NIGHT...HAVE POPS
DECREASING BACK TO CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCES. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE
COOLING TREND THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND LOWERED HIGHS A BIT FOR SUN
THROUGH MON NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH AND CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
OVER THE AREA 12Z TUE. THE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THU
BEFORE PATTERN MODIFICATION TAKES PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AND
AMPLIFICATION BREAKING DOWN. A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES 12Z FRI.
WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER AND LOOKS COOL AND
DRY FOR THE MOST PART. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS IN FOR TUE WITH
DEPARTING UPPER LOW IN THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIODS WITH SCT DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA REMAINING SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH A STRONG FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT...W WINDS MAY GUST OVER 20 KTS AT KCMX AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT IWD/SAW WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING BY LATE SUN MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT SHARPLY TO THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THERE MAY BE SOME WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS AT LEAST BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT OVER WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LK SUPERIOR BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF FOG ARE CURRENTLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE STRONGER FRONT AS
STRONG DRY ADVECTION TAKES OVER. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KTS AT
TIMES INTO EARLY THIS WEEK IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
156 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RIDGING
HOLDS TIGHT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. FOCUS FOR THIS SET OF TAFS
WAS TO REFINE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS. QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FIRST THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE SHOWER
ACTIVITY POSSIBLY RELEASING OFF OF THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN SURFACE
TROUGH...MAKING A RUN FOR THE TRI CITIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...LEAD PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A LOW CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE SAME TIME. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN FORECAST. BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATER TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING FINALLY
SETTLE INTO THE REGION. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
A COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST FEELING IS THAT MAJORITY OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL SLIDE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN BETWEEN 5-10Z.
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY...THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO/MICHIGAN BORDER.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
* THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL FALL BELOW 5000 FT
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1121 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
UPDATE...
CLEANED UP THE GRIDS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR LACK OF SKY
FRACTION EARLY. PUSHED A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUD IS CLOSING IN FAST. OFF OF THE
WARM START...INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO.
RECENT HIRES..CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING ITERATIONS OF
THE HRRR AND MEMBERS OF THE IN-HOUSE HI-RESOLUTION WRF ENSEMBLE
ARE PORTRAYING HIGH CERTAINTY THAT PRECIPITATION AND SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY
OF THE AFTERNOON...THROUGH 6PM. BULLISH NAM IS REALLY ON AN ISLAND
WITH REGARDS TO BRINGING QPF INTO THE AREA BEFORE 00Z. FORECASTED
CAPE FROM PLAN VIEW IMAGES SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY BECOMING
BOTTLED UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF LOWER
PENINSULA CENTERED ALONG A WEAK LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN SURFACE
TROUGH. CONTINUED ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE SUPPORTS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FEATURE AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM OF THE INBOUND BULLDOZER
TROUGH WHICH WILL ACTUALLY SUPPORT SUBSIDENCE OR SYNOPTIC SCALE
DESCENT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ARRIVE AND PASS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
6-8PM...WHICH WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH AN INCREASE IN TANGIBLE
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC HUMIDITY AND ENTRY LEVEL CAPE. IT IS ALONG THIS
LEAD EDGE AND THE RICH THETAE ADVECTION BURST THAT SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM COULD ARRIVE FOR THE EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS TO STRUGGLE. NO STRONG OR
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STILL EXPECTING THE CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 8 OR 9Z. THIS WILL OCCUR IN
COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING CYCLONIC IN TIME DUE TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE INBOUND DIGGING CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS
UPSTREAM CONVECTION/FRESH LOW LEVEL JET RESPONSE SLIDING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL INVESTIGATE THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE INTERACTION OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND A RESIDUAL STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE
STRETCH OF WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. ADDING TO THE COMPLEXITY WILL BE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN BOTH FEATURES. AS THE SYSTEM GETS
DEEPER INTO THE HIRES RUNS WE CONTINUE TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR
HOW THE EVENT LOOKS TO PLAY OUT. TODAY WILL BE A PERIOD OF
TRANSITION FROM THE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS BROUGHT TO US BY THE
EXITING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL SURGE OF JET ENERGY
EXITING THE TROUGH WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS IT
ROUNDS THE RIDGE STILL IN PLACE AS WE START THE DAY OFF. SEMBLANCE
OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
MIDWEST SHOULD ADD TO THE ALREADY STABLE/WARM MID LEVELS HELPING TO
KEEP THE AREA DRY. THE LEAD EDGE OF THE THETA E PLUME IS ENTERING
THE AREA AT PRESS TIME ON THE HEALS OF A SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR EXITING LAKE HURON. THIS WILL MERELY START THE SATURATION
PROCESS IN THE COLUMN WHICH HAD A PWAT OF ONLY 0.73 INCHES IN THE
00Z DTX SOUNDING FROM FRIDAY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS
JUMPING TO ABOVE 1.3 INCHES BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND CLOSE TO 1.8
INCHES BY THIS EVENING.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET WILL
UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TARGETING SE MI AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL REALLY ENHANCE THE MOISTURE FLUX INTO SOUTHERN MI WITH DEEP
LAYER OF SW FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS LOW. THE LOW WILL REACH US
CO-LOCATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAK...NOCTURNAL LL JET AND THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD YIELD THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. BEST TIME FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE AROUND 06-12Z TONIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP AS EARLY AS 21Z MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE BEGIN TO SPILL INTO
THE AREA ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WEAKER THETA E GRADIENT. WE
COULD ALSO SEE SOME ACTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS THE COMPLEX SET
TO DEVELOP ON TONIGHTS LL JET WORKS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE
TREND FOR THESE STORMS SHOULD BE TO WEAKEN AND FADE OUT AS THEY LOSE
THE BATTLE TO STABLE AIR BUT COULD CLIP THE AREA.
SPC HAS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TO OUR WEST BUT DOES COVER A PORTION OF
SW LOWER MI. THIS SEEMS FAIR WITH THE TREND IN THE MODELS TO KEEP
THE LL JET FROM ENTERING SE MI TIL POTENTIALLY 09Z. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS IN TIMING THE MAIN FEATURE AND HOW WELL DEVELOPED THE SYSTEM
GETS TONIGHT. CURRENTLY THINKING IS THAT FEW STRONG STORMS COULD
DEVELOP WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT OVERNIGHT...BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE A BIGGER THREAT WITH SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTING IN.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY GETS A BIT TRICKY AS THERE ARE VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A
FAIRLY DRY GFS/ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WHILE THE NAM HOLDS ON TO ABUNDANT
QPF. WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS BY ITSELF IS NOT ENOUGH TO THROW OUT THE
NAM...UPPER LEVEL FEATURES LEND CREDENCE TO THIS SOLUTION AS A
PRONOUNCED 700 MB DRY SLOT ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL JET SINKS SOUTH...GIVING THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO
AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE MOST
RECENT SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK WHICH HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT RISK JUST SOUTH
OF OUR CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS.
THE DRY SLOT AND SOME SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS DRY AIR BECOMES VERY PRONOUNCED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING TAKING AWAY ANY BOOST FROM INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION.
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE DRIER COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING...PUSHING NIGHTTIME LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL THEN INVADE THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FROM CANADA DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES TUMBLE WELL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AS LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD AIR MASS COULD
CHALLENGE SOME RECORDS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN THE RECORDS ARE
FAIRLY HIGH. WITHIN THE TROUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
REMAIN...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME WHEN
DIURNAL HEATING PROVIDES A BOOST TO RAIN CHANCES. MODEST RIDGING
WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY...WHICH IS
STILL A GOOD 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
UPDATE.......CB
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1211 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT THE BULK OF
THEM SHOULD HOLD UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY
MORNING. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96. THERE IS ALSO THE
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF GRAND
RAPIDS. WE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THEN MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON MONDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 80 TODAY AND SUNDAY...THEN COOL TO 70 TO 75 BY MONDAY.
THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD ONLY
BE AROUND 70...BUT THEN WARM TO AROUND 80 FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
A COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING ACROSS THE MS RIVER EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER. MAIN MOISTURE FLUX AND LIFT WILL
STILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST MUCH OF THE DAY. THEREFORE WILL LOWER POPS
AS THE MAIN FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN
RAMP THEM UP TO LIKELY AFTER 5 PM AS THE FRONT REACHES EASTERN
WISCONSIN BY THE END OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOKS QUITE WET...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-96 WHERE DEEP MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PERSISTS THERE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY OVER 2 INCHES. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH...
BUT NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OR IF WE WILL
JUST SEE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINS. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT STRONG ENOUGH
AT THIS POINT.
THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS A BIT LESSEN NOW THAT THE LOW
LEVEL JET SEEMS TO ARRIVE AFTER 06Z...DURING AN INSTABILITY DOWNWARD
TREND BY THAT HOUR. CAN NOT RULE OUT THAT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AND IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96.
THE FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD MOVE OUT SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS...PARTICULARLY SE
OF GRR. THEN BY MONDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS OVER THE U.P. THE
SOUTHERN CWA MAY BE DRY SLOTTED MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WILL CARRY CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. AFTER HIGHS AROUND 80 TODAY AND SUNDAY...
TEMPS WILL COOL TO 70 TO 75 MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
AN UNUSUALLY CHILLY PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR MID JULY... IN SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN... IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE WITH EACH MODEL RUN
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME. EXPECT AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS... MOSTLY INLAND OF
US-131 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TOO. THEN DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARM UP WILL
COMMENCE.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED TO THE GFS SINCE THE CONTINUITY
OF THE ECMWF REMAINS SUPERIOR TO THE GFS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE
IN THE MID LEVELS LIKE 700...500 AND 300 MB... THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO EJECT THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
FARTHER SOUTH WITH CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WELL. IT SHOULD
BE POINTED OUT THE CANADIAN GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IN TERMS OF
THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE DEEP 500 MB LOW OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE COLD POOL OF AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING IN
PLACE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDING IT SURE
LOOKS TO ME LIKE THERE WOULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE AREA. TYPICAL OF THIS SORT OF SET UP IN THE SUMMER
TIME... SMALL HAIL IS CLASSIC CHARACTERISTIC OF THIS SORT OF
SCENARIO. ECMWF MODEL SOUNDING WOULD ALSO SUPPORT THIS (INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING). BEYOND THAT THE UPPER LOW SLOWER MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA AND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET IS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN (ECMWF). SO I KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
GOING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON SINCE WE WOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALOFT TO SPARK CONVECTION. I DID TREND THE POP DOWN EACH
AFTERNOON AS THAT IS ALSO TYPICAL OF THIS SORT OF EVENT. WATER
SPOUTS MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN HOW COLD THE AIR WILL BE AT MID LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL... AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE AND WEDNESDAY. IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION AREAS EAST OF REED CITY ALONG ROUTE 10 COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE WARMED TO WITHING 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
CURRENTLY ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE EARLY TONIGHT AND I WOULD
EXPECT LARGELY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
BASED ON BOTH THE HRRR IN COMBINATION WITH NAMDNG5 IT SEEMS THE
BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE 03Z TO 09Z TIME
FRAME. WHILE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (HRRR) COULD
IMPACT THE TAF SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON... THE UPPER DYNAMICS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE AFTER 03Z SO ALL THE TAFS WERE WRITING TO SHOW
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOSTLY IN THAT TIME RANGE. SEEMS THESE
WILL BE TRAINING STORMS SO ONCE OVER THE TAF SITES THEY SHOULD NOT
BE QUICK TO LEAVE. IT IS AT THAT TIME THE CEILINGS/VSBY WILL
LIKELY GO MVFR/IFR. THE LOW CEILING/VSBY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY EVEN IF THE RAIN HAS ENDED BY THEN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE WAVES GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3
FOOT RANGE WITH SOME VALUES UP NEAR 4 FEET BY THE TIME YOU GET TO
BIG SABLE POINT. OVERALL THE WINDS DO NOT STRENGTHEN...SO NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND WAVES
COULD BE HIGHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LCLS...DEEP CAPE AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESS. LOCAL AMOUNTS WELL OVER 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS TRAIN. CORFIDI DO BECOME SMALL
SAT NIGHT. THE OVERALL RISK WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE CONVECTION
UNFOLDS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1121 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.UPDATE...
CLEANED UP THE GRIDS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR LACK OF SKY
FRACTION EARLY. PUSHED A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUD IS CLOSING IN FAST. OFF OF THE
WARM START...INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO.
RECENT HIRES..CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING ITERATIONS OF
THE HRRR AND MEMBERS OF THE IN-HOUSE HI-RESOLUTION WRF ENSEMBLE
ARE PORTRAYING HIGH CERTAINTY THAT PRECIPITATION AND SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY
OF THE AFTERNOON...THROUGH 6PM. BULLISH NAM IS REALLY ON AN ISLAND
WITH REGARDS TO BRINGING QPF INTO THE AREA BEFORE 00Z. FORECASTED
CAPE FROM PLAN VIEW IMAGES SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY BECOMING
BOTTLED UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF LOWER
PENINSULA CENTERED ALONG A WEAK LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN SURFACE
TROUGH. CONTINUED ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE SUPPORTS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FEATURE AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM OF THE INBOUND BULLDOZER
TROUGH WHICH WILL ACTUALLY SUPPORT SUBSIDENCE OR SYNOPTIC SCALE
DESCENT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ARRIVE AND PASS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
6-8PM...WHICH WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH AN INCREASE IN TANGIBLE
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC HUMIDITY AND ENTRY LEVEL CAPE. IT IS ALONG THIS
LEAD EDGE AND THE RICH THETAE ADVECTION BURST THAT SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM COULD ARRIVE FOR THE EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS TO STRUGGLE. NO STRONG OR
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STILL EXPECTING THE CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 8 OR 9Z. THIS WILL OCCUR IN
COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING CYCLONIC IN TIME DUE TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE INBOUND DIGGING CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS
UPSTREAM CONVECTION/FRESH LOW LEVEL JET RESPONSE SLIDING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL INVESTIGATE THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 658 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
//DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS DIURNAL HEATING IGNITES A CU FIELD AND DEBRIS FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION STREAMS INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE SPARSE SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THE TAFS AT
THE MOMENT. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
COME OVERNIGHT AS A COMPLEX WORKS EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MI. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST TIMING WILL BE BETWEEN 06-12Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
* THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL FALL BELOW 5000 FT
OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE INTERACTION OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND A RESIDUAL STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE
STRETCH OF WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. ADDING TO THE COMPLEXITY WILL BE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN BOTH FEATURES. AS THE SYSTEM GETS
DEEPER INTO THE HIRES RUNS WE CONTINUE TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR
HOW THE EVENT LOOKS TO PLAY OUT. TODAY WILL BE A PERIOD OF
TRANSITION FROM THE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS BROUGHT TO US BY THE
EXITING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL SURGE OF JET ENERGY
EXITING THE TROUGH WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS IT
ROUNDS THE RIDGE STILL IN PLACE AS WE START THE DAY OFF. SEMBLANCE
OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
MIDWEST SHOULD ADD TO THE ALREADY STABLE/WARM MID LEVELS HELPING TO
KEEP THE AREA DRY. THE LEAD EDGE OF THE THETA E PLUME IS ENTERING
THE AREA AT PRESS TIME ON THE HEALS OF A SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR EXITING LAKE HURON. THIS WILL MERELY START THE SATURATION
PROCESS IN THE COLUMN WHICH HAD A PWAT OF ONLY 0.73 INCHES IN THE
00Z DTX SOUNDING FROM FRIDAY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS
JUMPING TO ABOVE 1.3 INCHES BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND CLOSE TO 1.8
INCHES BY THIS EVENING.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET WILL
UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TARGETING SE MI AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL REALLY ENHANCE THE MOISTURE FLUX INTO SOUTHERN MI WITH DEEP
LAYER OF SW FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS LOW. THE LOW WILL REACH US
CO-LOCATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAK...NOCTURNAL LL JET AND THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD YIELD THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. BEST TIME FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE AROUND 06-12Z TONIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP AS EARLY AS 21Z MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE BEGIN TO SPILL INTO
THE AREA ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WEAKER THETA E GRADIENT. WE
COULD ALSO SEE SOME ACTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS THE COMPLEX SET
TO DEVELOP ON TONIGHTS LL JET WORKS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE
TREND FOR THESE STORMS SHOULD BE TO WEAKEN AND FADE OUT AS THEY LOSE
THE BATTLE TO STABLE AIR BUT COULD CLIP THE AREA.
SPC HAS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TO OUR WEST BUT DOES COVER A PORTION OF
SW LOWER MI. THIS SEEMS FAIR WITH THE TREND IN THE MODELS TO KEEP
THE LL JET FROM ENTERING SE MI TIL POTENTIALLY 09Z. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS IN TIMING THE MAIN FEATURE AND HOW WELL DEVELOPED THE SYSTEM
GETS TONIGHT. CURRENTLY THINKING IS THAT FEW STRONG STORMS COULD
DEVELOP WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT OVERNIGHT...BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE A BIGGER THREAT WITH SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTING IN.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY GETS A BIT TRICKY AS THERE ARE VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A
FAIRLY DRY GFS/ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WHILE THE NAM HOLDS ON TO ABUNDANT
QPF. WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS BY ITSELF IS NOT ENOUGH TO THROW OUT THE
NAM...UPPER LEVEL FEATURES LEND CREDENCE TO THIS SOLUTION AS A
PRONOUNCED 700 MB DRY SLOT ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL JET SINKS SOUTH...GIVING THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO
AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE MOST
RECENT SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK WHICH HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT RISK JUST SOUTH
OF OUR CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS.
THE DRY SLOT AND SOME SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS DRY AIR BECOMES VERY PRONOUNCED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING TAKING AWAY ANY BOOST FROM INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION.
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE DRIER COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING...PUSHING NIGHTTIME LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL THEN INVADE THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FROM CANADA DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH TAKES
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES TUMBLE WELL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AS LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD AIR MASS COULD
CHALLENGE SOME RECORDS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN THE RECORDS ARE
FAIRLY HIGH. WITHIN THE TROUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
REMAIN...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME WHEN
DIURNAL HEATING PROVIDES A BOOST TO RAIN CHANCES. MODEST RIDGING
WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY...WHICH IS
STILL A GOOD 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......CB
AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
748 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT THE BULK OF
THEM SHOULD HOLD UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY
MORNING. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96. THERE IS ALSO THE
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF GRAND
RAPIDS. WE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THEN MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON MONDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 80 TODAY AND SUNDAY...THEN COOL TO 70 TO 75 BY MONDAY.
THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD ONLY
BE AROUND 70...BUT THEN WARM TO AROUND 80 FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
A COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING ACROSS THE MS RIVER EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER. MAIN MOISTURE FLUX AND LIFT WILL
STILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST MUCH OF THE DAY. THEREFORE WILL LOWER POPS
AS THE MAIN FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN
RAMP THEM UP TO LIKELY AFTER 5 PM AS THE FRONT REACHES EASTERN
WISCONSIN BY THE END OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOKS QUITE WET...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-96 WHERE DEEP MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PERSISTS THERE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY OVER 2 INCHES. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH...
BUT NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OR IF WE WILL
JUST SEE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINS. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT STRONG ENOUGH
AT THIS POINT.
THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS A BIT LESSEN NOW THAT THE LOW
LEVEL JET SEEMS TO ARRIVE AFTER 06Z...DURING AN INSTABILITY DOWNWARD
TREND BY THAT HOUR. CAN NOT RULE OUT THAT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AND IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96.
THE FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD MOVE OUT SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS...PARTICULARLY SE
OF GRR. THEN BY MONDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS OVER THE U.P. THE
SOUTHERN CWA MAY BE DRY SLOTTED MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WILL CARRY CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. AFTER HIGHS AROUND 80 TODAY AND SUNDAY...
TEMPS WILL COOL TO 70 TO 75 MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
AN UNUSUALLY CHILLY PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR MID JULY... IN SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN... IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE WITH EACH MODEL RUN
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME. EXPECT AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS... MOSTLY INLAND OF
US-131 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TOO. THEN DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARM UP WILL
COMMENCE.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED TO THE GFS SINCE THE CONTINUITY
OF THE ECMWF REMAINS SUPERIOR TO THE GFS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE
IN THE MID LEVELS LIKE 700...500 AND 300 MB... THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO EJECT THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
FARTHER SOUTH WITH CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WELL. IT SHOULD
BE POINTED OUT THE CANADIAN GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IN TERMS OF
THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE DEEP 500 MB LOW OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE COLD POOL OF AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING IN
PLACE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDING IT SURE
LOOKS TO ME LIKE THERE WOULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE AREA. TYPICAL OF THIS SORT OF SET UP IN THE SUMMER
TIME... SMALL HAIL IS CLASSIC CHARACTERISTIC OF THIS SORT OF
SCENARIO. ECMWF MODEL SOUNDING WOULD ALSO SUPPORT THIS (INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING). BEYOND THAT THE UPPER LOW SLOWER MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA AND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET IS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN (ECMWF). SO I KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
GOING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON SINCE WE WOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALOFT TO SPARK CONVECTION. I DID TREND THE POP DOWN EACH
AFTERNOON AS THAT IS ALSO TYPICAL OF THIS SORT OF EVENT. WATER
SPOUTS MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN HOW COLD THE AIR WILL BE AT MID LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL... AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE AND WEDNESDAY. IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION AREAS EAST OF REED CITY ALONG ROUTE 10 COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE WARMED TO WITHING 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
CURRENTLY ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE EARLY TONIGHT AND I WOULD
EXPECT LARGELY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
BASED ON BOTH THE HRRR IN COMBINATION WITH NAMDNG5 IT SEEMS THE
BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE 03Z TO 09Z TIME
FRAME. WHILE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (HRRR) COULD
IMPACT THE TAF SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON... THE UPPER DYNAMICS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE AFTER 03Z SO ALL THE TAFS WERE WRITING TO SHOW
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOSTLY IN THAT TIME RANGE. SEEMS THESE
WILL BE TRAINING STORMS SO ONCE OVER THE TAF SITES THEY SHOULD NOT
BE QUICK TO LEAVE. IT IS AT THAT TIME THE CEILINGS/VSBY WILL
LIKELY GO MVFR/IFR. THE LOW CEILING/VSBY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY EVEN IF THE RAIN HAS ENDED BY THEN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
IT WILL BE ROUGHER ON THE LAKE THAN IT HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. SOUTH WINDS WERE ALREADY REACHING AROUND 15 KNOTS EARLY
THIS MORNING AND THEY MAY REACH TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. IT CONTINUES TO
APPEAR WE WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT 2-4 FOOT WAVES WILL BE
LIKELY FROM HOLLAND NORTHWARD. THE SWIM HAZARD RISK WILL BE
MODERATE WITH LONGSHORE CURRENTS AND SOUTH FACING STRUCTURAL
CURRENTS POSSIBLE.
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN TONIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AND WAVES SHOULD TREND DOWN AFTER NIGHTFALL. A WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND WILL THEN PERSIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE
15 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LCLS...DEEP CAPE AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESS. LOCAL AMOUNTS WELL OVER 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS TRAIN. CORFIDI DO BECOME SMALL
SAT NIGHT. THE OVERALL RISK WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE CONVECTION
UNFOLDS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
329 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE
NRN CONUS BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER CNTRL CANADA AND A RIDGE OVER THE
SRN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI HELPED PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FROM NEAR KINL INTO N CNTRL MN HAD DEVELOPED
ALONG A COLD FRONT/TROUGH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV MOVING
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER UPPER MI HAD LIMITED
TEMPS TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LIMITED MLCAPE VALUES TO LESS THAN
400 J/KG.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT SHRA/TSRA OVER NRN MN WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
AND MOVE TOWARD UPPER MI. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY
FCST OVER THE AREA...MUCAPE INTO THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE...THE
CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA. SCT SHRA COVERAGE
WITH CHANCE POPS WAS MENTIONED GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT AND SHRTWV SLIDING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THE
REMAINING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ERN CWA LATE THIS
EVENING AND DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH UPPER MI WILL PROVIDE A
BOUNDARY/FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH
ONSET OF STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT THE GREATEST PCPN COVERAGE
OVER THE SOUTH AND THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WHERE THE HIGHER RES MODELS
SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL CONV WILL BE STRONGEST. MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR
1K J/KG...PER GEM-REGIONAL AND GFS COMBINED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 35-40 KNOTS COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
IF CLOUD DEPENDENT INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE INTO WI ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE IS STILL TIMING/POSITION UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW IT WOULD AFFECT MAINLY SRN UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA 12Z SUN WITH
A 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER AIR
PATTERN AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA 12Z MON WITH THE LOW MOVING OVER THE
AREA ON MON. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA ON MON...EXPECT SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE
PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON MON INTO MON NIGHT.
WILL HAVE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE ERN CWA SUN MORNING AND
THEN GO DRY FOR SUN AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. WITH APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON MON...WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY IN
A FEW PLACES MON WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING HAVING THE HIGHEST POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING MON NIGHT...HAVE POPS
DECREASING BACK TO CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCES. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE
COOLING TREND THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND LOWERED HIGHS A BIT FOR SUN
THROUGH MON NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH AND CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
OVER THE AREA 12Z TUE. THE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THU
BEFORE PATTERN MODIFICATION TAKES PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AND
AMPLIFICATION BREAKING DOWN. A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES 12Z FRI.
WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER AND LOOKS COOL AND
DRY FOR THE MOST PART. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS IN FOR TUE WITH
DEPARTING UPPER LOW IN THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH MAINLY HIGHER MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX...PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO A W TO NW DIRECTION BEHIND COLD
FROPA THIS MORNING...THE UPSLOPE WINDS AT KIWD/KCMX MAY RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AND POTENTIALLY LIFR. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AT KSAW. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTN. THERE MAY BE SHRA/TSRA AROUND KSAW THIS AFTN...BUT
LOCATION/COVERAGE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS TOO UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN FCST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014
SOUTH WINDS OF UP TO 20 KTS...POSSIBLY 25 KTS AT HIGHER PLATFORMS
ABOVE MARINE LAYER...EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW. AS SCT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR...FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH PASSES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
141 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE
NRN CONUS BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER CNTRL CANADA AND A RIDGE OVER THE
SRN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI HELPED PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FROM NEAR KINL INTO N CNTRL MN HAD DEVELOPED
ALONG A COLD FRONT/TROUGH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV MOVING
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER UPPER MI HAD LIMITED
TEMPS TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LIMITED MLCAPE VALUES TO LESS THAN
400 J/KG.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT SHRA/TSRA OVER NRN MN WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
AND MOVE TOWARD UPPER MI. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY
FCST OVER THE AREA...MUCAPE INTO THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE...THE
CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA. SCT SHRA COVERAGE
WITH CHANCE POPS WAS MENTIONED GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT AND SHRTWV SLIDING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THE
REMAINING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ERN CWA LATE THIS
EVENING AND DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH UPPER MI WILL PROVIDE A
BOUNDARY/FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH
ONSET OF STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT THE GREATEST PCPN COVERAGE
OVER THE SOUTH AND THROUGH ERN UPPER MI WHERE THE HIGHER RES MODELS
SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL CONV WILL BE STRONGEST. MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR
1K J/KG...PER GEM-REGIONAL AND GFS COMBINED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 35-40 KNOTS COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
IF CLOUD DEPENDENT INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE INTO WI ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE IS STILL TIMING/POSITION UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW IT WOULD AFFECT MAINLY SRN UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014
THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE SEPTEMBER-LIKE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST HUDSON BAY WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK SOUTHWARD AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON BOTH THE AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL HEATING SATURDAY AND THE LOCATION OF THE DECAYING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE. WHILE MCS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED
ALONG THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS WI SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESIDUAL 305-315K ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF
THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO TAP INTO REMAINING MUCAPE OF
AROUND 500 J/KG AS NOTED BY BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GEM. ANY
THUNDER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK THIS FAR NORTH GIVEN A STABLE
SFC LAYER AND OVERALL LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER
GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL WITH ANY STORM ROOTED ALONG THE SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LOW WILL CROSS THE
CWA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS...ONLY SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY...SKIES LOOK TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A 12-18 HOUR WINDOW.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED MIXING ACROSS THE WEST...WITH WESTERLY
GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE KEWEENAW.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BY MONDAY MORNING...THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
SPLIT INTO TWO WAVES OVER ONTARIO. THE EASTERN SEGMENT OVER
SOUTHERN JAMES BAY WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE WESTERN SEGMENT WILL BE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF MN AROUND 12Z MONDAY.
THIS WESTERN EXTENSION WILL BECOME STACKED UPWARD FROM H7...SO
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE SLOW. THE MID/UPPER-LOW IS
PROGGED TO TRACK FROM NEAR DLH MONDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR GRB BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE OVERALL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. ONE
LIMITING FACTOR TO COVERAGE IS A PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE. SOMEWHAT
DRY AIR ABOVE H5 SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS LESS WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
LOW CENTER. SOME DIURNAL HEATING ASSISTANCE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
GREATER COVERAGE AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE...THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WI BORDER...WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE
BEEN INTRODUCED.
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL FOR MID-JULY...WITH H8 TEMPS AT OR BELOW
5C. WITH CLOUDY AND SHOWERS AROUND...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME
LOCALES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR MAY EVEN FAIL TO REACH 50. THESE NUMBERS
ARE 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...AND WILL LIKELY SET RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
DEFORMATION/FGEN REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD AS THE LOW ONLY REACHES
NORTHERN LAKE HURON BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GFS ADVERTISES A MUCH QUICKER
DEPARTURE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW THAN THE ECMWF/GEM. THIS HAS
IMPLICATIONS ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CONTINUED CLOUD
COVER AND HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...THE STOUT RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND PROVINCES THAT DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE
TO THE DEEP EASTERN TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING AN OVERALL QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BACK TO JUST BELOW AVERAGE
BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW DIURNAL INLAND SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH RETURN MOISTURE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH MAINLY HIGHER MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX...PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO A W TO NW DIRECTION BEHIND COLD
FROPA THIS MORNING...THE UPSLOPE WINDS AT KIWD/KCMX MAY RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AND POTENTIALLY LIFR. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AT KSAW. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTN. THERE MAY BE SHRA/TSRA AROUND KSAW THIS AFTN...BUT
LOCATION/COVERAGE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS TOO UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN FCST. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014
SOUTH WINDS OF UP TO 20 KTS...POSSIBLY 25 KTS AT HIGHER PLATFORMS
ABOVE MARINE LAYER...EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW. AS SCT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR...FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH PASSES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
308 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA AS OF 330 PM. PCPN WAS FOCUSED OVER TWO AREAS... ONE
NEAR THE IOWA BORDER AND ANOTHER FROM EAST CENTRAL INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE FORMER AREA WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE
MAIN INSTABILITY GRADIENT/BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER... THE LATTER WAS
BEING AIDED BY THE SECONDARY FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA. MLCAPE VALUES OF 250-1000 J/KG
WERE APPARENT IN THE SPC MESOANALYSIS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA... WHERE EMBEDDED STORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES WERE
PRESENT. SOME PEA SIZED HAIL WAS OCCURRING WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS... WHICH HAD SOME BETTER CORES ABV 25K FT AGL. THE HRRR HAS
HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS THROUGH THE DAY... SO GENERALLY
FOLLOWED ITS GUIDANCE TOGETHER WITH NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES FROM
THE HOPWRF. THAT BEING SAID... EXPECT THINGS TO SHIFT EAST/SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY EVENING... WITH MOST OF THE CWFA BECOMING PCPN FREE
BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. WE COULD SEE SOME SHRA SNEAK BACK INTO THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PV LOBE
SWINGS THROUGH THAT AREA. COLD ADVECTION WILL ASSERT ITSELF OVER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE WITH THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP ANY SHRA FROM DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY GIVEN THAT THE
BETTER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STILL BE UPSTREAM AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW AT THAT POINT. SO... EXPECT MAINLY JUST DIURNAL CU
WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN DIGGING SOUTH AGGRESSIVELY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL REACH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY. CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW
MONDAY...GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE LOW OVER WESTERN WI. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE STRONG CAA REGIME MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT NOTHING THAT WILL BE TOO STRONG GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW INSTABILITY/MOIST LAYER - MORE LIKE AN ISOLATED
STRIKE OR TWO AT BEST.
THE BIGGER STORY MONDAY WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. 925 MB TEMPS OF ONLY ABOUT +10C AND 850 MB
TEMPS AT BEST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 0C WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO ONLY
REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S...EVEN IF THE SUN CAN MAKE A BRIEF
APPEARANCE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS ARE 68 AT MSP...STC AND EAU AND
RECORD LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE RECORD LOWS MAY
BE A BIT OF A STRETCH...BUT THE COLD HIGHS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
EASILY ATTAINABLE IF HIGHS ARE NOT REACHED AT 06Z MONDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...BUT THE
MOISTURE WILL EXIT AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECTING
A MOSTLY CLEAR REST OF THE WEEK WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
FOR MOST...THIS MAY BE CONSIDERED THE NICEST WEEK OF THE SUMMER
THUS FAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS SRN MN THIS MORNING IS ALSO HELPING TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL...WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...SO UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING...SO TRENDED
PRECIP MENTION IN TAFS MORE TOWARD A SHRA MENTION. OUTSIDE OF
BEING A LITTLE SLOW IN DEVELOPING ACTIVITY...THE HRRR HAS HAD A
GOOD HANDEL ON ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...SO FOLLOWED IT TO TIME
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF SHRA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS WRN MN...BUT WITH CIGS GETTING EVER
HIGHER OUT WEST...THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING
MUCH FARTHER WEST OF ITS CURRENT LOCATION. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH IT WILL BE TAKING THE IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH IT...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE TAF. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT...BUT WE
WILL BE BRINGING IN DRIER AIR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL...SO THAT
SHOULD KEEP ANY LOWER VSBYS IN CHECK. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TREND
MORE NWRLY OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING AND A FEW GUSTS OUT
OF THE NW DEVELOPING BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
KMSP...LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MINIMAL WITH ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING AND WITH CLOUD TOPS RELATIVELY WARM...WILL LIKELY SEE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO BE PRETTY SPARSE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SO FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH JUST THE VCTS MENTION. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR THE FIELD BY 23Z WITH NO OTHER ISSUES
EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD OTHER THAN THE NW WINDS STARTING TO GET
GUSTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR PSBL WITH CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. NW WINDS 15-30 KTS.
TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. NW WINDS 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
107 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
IT`S WARM AND MUGGY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SO
FAR THE HEAVY RAIN HAS REMAINED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS SD/NE/IA. THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FORM FARTHER NORTHEAST...ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FALL
TODAY...BUT THERE WON`T BE A DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS
LOCALLY UNTIL NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY.
WELL YOU REALLY WOULDN`T KNOW IT...BUT THERE IS A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT CREEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MN ARE 5-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME FRIDAY MORNING. THE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST ARE CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IN AN AREA OF GOOD MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND FGEN. THERE ARE ALSO PWATS NEAR 2" AND GOOD 850-300MB
THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE ACROSS IA...SO THERE IS A LOT WORKING IN
FAVOR FOR HEAVY RAIN IN AREAS TO OUR SOUTH. THAT BEING
SAID...SOUTHERN MN SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LATE THIS MORNING WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST
ORIENTATION TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VECTORS /THEY`VE BEEN NEAR ZERO
OR NORTH MOST OF THE NIGHT/. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND PV
FEATURE LOCATED IN ND/SD EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE CONVECTION FROM PIERRE, SD BACK TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE SD/MN BORDER BY AROUND
15Z...WHICH COULD THEN KICK OFF MORE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...WE ARE ALREADY
SEEING ACTIVITY IN SD TRANSLATE FARTHER EAST AND APPROACH THE
STATE LINE...NOT TO MENTION A COUPLE SHOWERS AND ENHANCED CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT GOING UP ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IN
MINNESOTA. THE SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OR EVEN WIDESPREAD
RAIN ISN`T GREAT TODAY...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AROUND AND ENOUGH FORCING TO JUSTIFY 40-70% RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WE ARE SIMPLY NOT EXACTLY SURE WHICH FORCING
MECHANISM WILL DOMINATE AND AT WHAT TIME. THE AVAILABLE CAM
GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT...DOES SUGGEST A COUPLE DISTINCT AREAS OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE FORECAST TODAY /ONE NORTH AND ONE
SOUTH/...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO INCLUDE HIGHER THAN 70-75%
CHANCE OF RAIN AT ANY ONE LOCATION GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THUNDER
DOES SEEM MUCH MORE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WHEN COMPARED TO
WHAT IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL MN AND EVEN WEST CENTRAL MN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A CDFNT HAVING JUST SANK TO THE S OF
THE MPX CWFA...AND THIS WILL BEGIN THE POTENT CAA ADVERTISED FOR
THE N-CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THE CDFNT
DROPS FURTHER S AND E DURG THE DAY SUN AND SUN NIGHT...A DEEP UPR
LVL CUTOFF LOW WILL DROP S FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GRT LKS
SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN BOTH
FEATURES SUCH THAT A DRY DAY ON SUN FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA LOOKS IN
ORDER. HOWEVER...AS THE UPR LOW NEARS...SEVERAL SHTWV TROUGH AXES
WILL ROTATE ARND THE WRN FRINGES OF THE UPR LOW. IN ADDITION...A
WEAK POST-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL ALSO DROP THRU THE REGION ON
MON...ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHWRS TO DEVELOP ACRS THE AREA.
AS THE UPR LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO SHIFT OFF TO THE E. THUS LEAVING
THE MAIN STORY TO BE THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS STILL
LOOK TO DROP TO THE 4 TO 6 DEG C RANGE...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
MID-JULY...AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SFC TEMPS ARND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST AIR WILL DROP THRU THE REGION SUN NIGHT
THRU TUE NIGHT...WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY HIT THE 60S WITH LOWS AS
FAR DOWN AS THE LWR 50S AND POTENTIALLY SOME UPR 40S IN NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. TEMPS DO LOOK TO MODERATE GOING INTO THE MID-TO-
LATE WEEK PERIOD AND THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY EXTENSIVE HIGH
PRES THAT WILL KEEP PRECIP AWAY FROM THE REGION STARTING TUE
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS SRN MN THIS MORNING IS ALSO HELPING TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL...WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...SO UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING...SO TRENDED
PRECIP MENTION IN TAFS MORE TOWARD A SHRA MENTION. OUTSIDE OF
BEING A LITTLE SLOW IN DEVELOPING ACTIVITY...THE HRRR HAS HAD A
GOOD HANDEL ON ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...SO FOLLOWED IT TO TIME
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF SHRA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS WRN MN...BUT WITH CIGS GETTING EVER
HIGHER OUT WEST...THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING
MUCH FARTHER WEST OF ITS CURRENT LOCATION. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH IT WILL BE TAKING THE IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH IT...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE TAF. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT...BUT WE
WILL BE BRINGING IN DRIER AIR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL...SO THAT
SHOULD KEEP ANY LOWER VSBYS IN CHECK. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TREND
MORE NWRLY OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING AND A FEW GUSTS OUT
OF THE NW DEVELOPING BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
KMSP...LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MINIMAL WITH ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING AND WITH CLOUD TOPS RELATIVELY WARM...WILL LIKELY SEE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO BE PRETTY SPARSE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SO FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH JUST THE VCTS MENTION. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR THE FIELD BY 23Z WITH NO OTHER ISSUES
EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD OTHER THAN THE NW WINDS STARTING TO GET
GUSTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR PSBL WITH CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. NW WINDS 15-30 KTS.
TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. NW WINDS 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1011 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.UPDATE...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE PREVIOUS STALLED
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS WASHED OUT AND FRONTAL ZONE IS
FURTHER TO THE N. 12Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 925MB MOISTURE GRADIENT
ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE W/SW AND INTO SE MS. DUE TO WASHED
OUT FRONTAL ZONE...PWATS IN REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AROUND 1.6-1.8
INCHES...CURRENT MOISTURE GRADIENT AND THE HRRR INDICATING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SLIGHTLY FURTHER N...DECIDED TO MOVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE N/NW NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS...INCLUDING GFS/NAM...KEEP CONVECTION FURTHER S
WHILE THE EURO WANTS TO BRING SOME BACK INTO W MS/NE LA TODAY.
HOWEVER...STILL EXPECTING MOST COVERAGE TO BE FURTHER TO THE S/SE.
THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM TODAY IN THE S DUE TO VERTICAL
TOTALS AROUND 25-26 DEG. C. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO
LIGHT CORFIDI VECTORS/DEEP MOISTURE/SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD SLOWLY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE
97-101 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS LOOK ON TRACK...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN MAV. COULD POTENTIALLY BE A TOUCH COOLER DUE TO TEMPS ALOFT IN
12Z KJAN SOUNDING BEING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT LITTLE CLOUDS OVER
MOST OF THE AREA AND SOME MIXING WILL LEAD TO A WARM AFTERNOON IN THE
LOW/MID 90S. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IS POSSIBLE NEAR KHBG TODAY AND COULD BRING
VIS/CIG DOWN BRIEFLY TO MVFR. SOME MIST/PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN TAF SITES. /DC/SW/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE A MUCH
DIFFERENT WEEKEND THIS WEEKEND THAN IT WAS THE LAST. 595DM UPPER
RIDGE WILL NOSE INTO OUR REGION...LEAVING MANY LOCATIONS DRY BUT
WARMER. THERE STILL REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON
STORMS IN THE SOUTH WHERE HEIGHTS ARE NOT AS HIGH BUT THE REST OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE LESS CONVECTION TODAY. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
MID 90S ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA AND NORTHERN AREAS WHERE A LITTLE
DRIER AIR MAY BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING LARGE UPPER LOW COMING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STILL BE WARM IN THE 90S BUT THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. MAV GUIDANCE WAS STILL A TAD TOO WARM FOR
HIGHS SUNDAY SO LOWERED HIGHS ABOUT 1-2 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES WILL
ALSO BE HIGHER ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA WHERE HEAT INDEX
READINGS COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 100S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WHICH WILL PRECLUDE
ANY NEED FOR ADVISORIES. /28/
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED WARM MONDAY AS
SITES TOP OUT 92-95F BUT A COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM. COME MONDAY A CLOSED LOW WILL BE
DROPPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND HELP DEEPEN AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CONUS. THE RESULTING LOWER
HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO A GREATER COVERAGE OF MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TO MID 70 DEW POINTS AND PWS
BETWEEN 1.75-2.0 INCHES WILL BE BACK ACROSS OUR CWA. THERE ARE
TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM
BUT CONSENSUS DROPS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BY TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT MAY DROP INTO OUR HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD
FRONT WILL DROP BEFORE IT STALLS. THE GFS IS FASTER IN SHIFTING THE
CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND STALLS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE SLOWER IN
LIFTING THE CLOSED LOW OUT AND DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF OUR CWA
WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A COOLER AND DRIER FORECAST THAN THE
GFS WOULD SUGGEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY
STALLED ACROSS OUR CWA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION
MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. WITH PWS POOLING ABOVE TWO INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT LEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA AND WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION
OF THE STALLED FRONT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LOOKS TO REMAIN
OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MAINTAINING DECENT RAIN CHANCES
AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 95 71 95 72 / 9 7 9 7
MERIDIAN 94 69 95 70 / 9 5 8 7
VICKSBURG 94 70 95 71 / 11 8 7 7
HATTIESBURG 94 71 95 72 / 22 10 32 10
NATCHEZ 92 70 93 72 / 18 8 23 10
GREENVILLE 95 71 96 74 / 5 5 7 10
GREENWOOD 95 69 95 73 / 5 4 8 10
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DC/SW/28/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
934 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 925 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
Wavy frontal boundary stretches from southwest OK through southern
MO/IL into the Ohio Valley this evening. A very moist and moderately
unstable air mass spans both sides of the boundary with PWs around
1.80 inches and SBCAPE averaging around 1500 j/kg. Lift associated
with a 25 kt westerly LLJ and an upstream weak short wave trof
from western MO into southeast KS, continues to generate clusters
of showers and thunderstorms spanning both sides of the front. The
greatest increase in organization and coverage during the last
hour or so has been across southwest Missouri. This trend is
expected to continue through at least the remainder of the evening
as the boundary oozes southward with likely pops across the
eastern Ozarks into far southwest IL. Severe threat looks pretty
isolated with heavy downpours a greater concern. The more formidable
cold front will drop south to near the IA/MO border by 12z with a
threat of isolated showers and thunderstorms immediately ahead of
it.
Glass
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
Cold front has moved to a Effingham to St. Louis metro to Rolla
line at 20Z. Atmosphere is moderately unstable with MLCAPEs around
1000-1500 J/kg with an effective sheer of 35 kts. Still some
potential for a few severe thunderstorms capable of producing
primarily damaging winds with some large hail through the evening
hours given the amount of instability and shear in the SPC slight
risk area. Scattered thunderstorms have been developing over the
past couple of hours, primarily behind the front. A series of vort
maxes will continue to move across the area through early evening
per the RAP which will provide some modest ascent, but some
increase in overall coverage of thunderstorms should occur during
this evening over the southern and eastern parts the CWA when a
modest increase in 925-850mb moisture convergence occurs. This is
depicted well on the HRRR and NSSL-WRF simulated reflectivity.
These storms will shift south of the CWA overnight, though there
will be a slight chance of storms late tonight over northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois as a secondary cold front moves
south out of Iowa.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
(Monday through Wednesday)
The aforementioned secondary cold front will move southward through
the CWA during the day Monday as a stronger shortwave pivots
through the area. Expect additional scattered thunderstorms to
develop along front tomorrow because of this. There will be the
risk of a few severe thunderstorms along and ahead of the front
given forecast MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg and deep layer near
40kts. Storms will move out of the area by early Monday evening.
Monday should be out last warm day with 850mb temperatures between
14-18C. These temperatures will fall to between 8-12C on Tuesday
and Wednesday which should keep highs only in the lower to middle
70s. Lows on Tuesday morning look like they will fall into the
middle 50s in most areas because of decent radiational cooling and
dewpoints in the low 50s. Tuesday and Wednesday still look dry as we
will lie under subsidence in northwesterly flow aloft.
(Thursday through next Sunday)
GFS and ECMWF are still in relatively good agreement in showing that
the deep upper low that will be centered over the Great Lakes at
midweek will lift into eastern Canada on Thursday. At the same
time, another weaker upper low will be digging in behind it.
Expect a dry Thursday with the surface high bringing drier air
from the east with highs near 80 given the 850mb temperatures
around 12C. The GFS and ECMWF are in decent agreement on Friday
and Saturday that most of the precipitation associated with the
upper trough will stay to the south, so will keep the forecast
dry. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by next Sunday
as both models show a warm front moving northeast through the
area. 850mb temperatures will climb into the 17-19C range which
favor temperatures in the middle to upper 80s.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
The cold front affecting the region continues to slowly sink south
thru the area this evng and currently stretches from sthrn IN
across sthrn IL...sthrn MO into NE OK. Some SHRAs/TSTMs have dvlpd
along the bndry late this aftn across SE MO with more activity
behind the bndry along and north of I70. This convection will
continue to slide east over the next few hrs before beginning to
diminish later this evng. VFR conditions will prevail but could
drop to IFR if a convective core directly impacts a terminal. A
secondary cold front is fcst to push thru the area tomorrow
bringing another chance of SHRAs/TSTMs. Have covered this threat
with a VC group due to the expected limited coverage of the
activity. Models are hinting at some MVFR fog at KCOU...KSUS and
KCPS which makes sense with a little rain this evng...light winds
overnight and a moist air mass in place...so have introduced an
early morning tempo. Winds should remain aob 12kts.
Specifics for KSTL:
Sctrd SHRAs with isld TSTMs will affect the terminal over the
next several hrs. The thunder threat will continue to diminish
with time this evng. There is another chance for convection Monday
aftn with a secondary cold front but coverage looks limited attm
so have addressed the threat with a VC group. Winds are expected
to remain aob 12kts thru the prd.
2%
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
717 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
Cold front has moved to a Effingham to St. Louis metro to Rolla
line at 20Z. Atmosphere is moderately unstable with MLCAPEs around
1000-1500 J/kg with an effective sheer of 35 kts. Still some
potential for a few severe thunderstorms capable of producing
primarily damaging winds with some large hail through the evening
hours given the amount of instability and shear in the SPC slight
risk area. Scattered thunderstorms have been developing over the
past couple of hours, primarily behind the front. A series of vort
maxes will continue to move across the area through early evening
per the RAP which will provide some modest ascent, but some
increase in overall coverage of thunderstorms should occur during
this evening over the southern and eastern parts the CWA when a
modest increase in 925-850mb moisture convergence occurs. This is
depicted well on the HRRR and NSSL-WRF simulated reflectivity.
These storms will shift south of the CWA overnight, though there
will be a slight chance of storms late tonight over northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois as a secondary cold front moves
south out of Iowa.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
(Monday through Wednesday)
The aforementioned secondary cold front will move southward through
the CWA during the day Monday as a stronger shortwave pivots
through the area. Expect additional scattered thunderstorms to
develop along front tomorrow because of this. There will be the
risk of a few severe thunderstorms along and ahead of the front
given forecast MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg and deep layer near
40kts. Storms will move out of the area by early Monday evening.
Monday should be out last warm day with 850mb temperatures between
14-18C. These temperatures will fall to between 8-12C on Tuesday
and Wednesday which should keep highs only in the lower to middle
70s. Lows on Tuesday morning look like they will fall into the
middle 50s in most areas because of decent radiational cooling and
dewpoints in the low 50s. Tuesday and Wednesday still look dry as we
will lie under subsidence in northwesterly flow aloft.
(Thursday through next Sunday)
GFS and ECMWF are still in relatively good agreement in showing that
the deep upper low that will be centered over the Great Lakes at
midweek will lift into eastern Canada on Thursday. At the same
time, another weaker upper low will be digging in behind it.
Expect a dry Thursday with the surface high bringing drier air
from the east with highs near 80 given the 850mb temperatures
around 12C. The GFS and ECMWF are in decent agreement on Friday
and Saturday that most of the precipitation associated with the
upper trough will stay to the south, so will keep the forecast
dry. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by next Sunday
as both models show a warm front moving northeast through the
area. 850mb temperatures will climb into the 17-19C range which
favor temperatures in the middle to upper 80s.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
The cold front affecting the region continues to slowly sink south
thru the area this evng and currently stretches from sthrn IN
across sthrn IL...sthrn MO into NE OK. Some SHRAs/TSTMs have dvlpd
along the bndry late this aftn across SE MO with more activity
behind the bndry along and north of I70. This convection will
continue to slide east over the next few hrs before beginning to
diminish later this evng. VFR conditions will prevail but could
drop to IFR if a convective core directly impacts a terminal. A
secondary cold front is fcst to push thru the area tomorrow
bringing another chance of SHRAs/TSTMs. Have covered this threat
with a VC group due to the expected limited coverage of the
activity. Models are hinting at some MVFR fog at KCOU...KSUS and
KCPS which makes sense with a little rain this evng...light winds
overnight and a moist air mass in place...so have introduced an
early morning tempo. Winds should remain aob 12kts.
Specifics for KSTL:
Sctrd SHRAs with isld TSTMs will affect the terminal over the
next several hrs. The thunder threat will continue to diminish
with time this evng. There is another chance for convection Monday
aftn with a secondary cold front but coverage looks limited attm
so have addressed the threat with a VC group. Winds are expected
to remain aob 12kts thru the prd.
2%
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1229 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
Overnight convection remains mostly located in areas from northeast
Nebraska arching through central Iowa into Illinois, which coincides
with edge of the nocturnal jet where warm air and moisture transport
is piling up early this morning. Closer to home, starting to get
some scattered radar returns across central Missouri likely owing to
weak moisture transport noted from the SPCs meso-analysis page.
Early morning showers in central Missouri don`t look like they will
last long. HRRR and other meso-models advertising this modest
activity all have it dissipating as quickly as it appeared as the
primary focus for moisture transport will remain to our north along
the southern edge of the prevailing westerlies across Nebraska and
Iowa today. Convection to our north will likely reinforce a weak
cold front settling south into Kansas and Missouri late tonight,
which will eventually bring the focus for some rain farther south
--likely after midnight--. However, before that occurs we will have
to get through a hot and muggy day. H8 temperatures today in the 20C
to 22C range, along with plenty of insolation thanks to clearing
skies, should allow temperates to reach into the 90s across the
entire forecast region today.
For tonight...have bumped POPs after midnight into the likely range
as models are consistent in settling the activity across Nebraska
and Iowa into at least northern Missouri as the front settles south.
Rainfall totals across far northern Missouri could be a bit high
owing to precipitable water values will be over 1.5 inches, though
the storms should be progressive enough with the fronts movement to
limit flooding issues. Otherwise, severe potential can not be ruled
out, but shear looks highly confined to the front and late night
instability is not looking overly favorable. That said, small hail,
locally gusty winds and torrential rain would be the hazards to
highlight with any of our late Saturday Night/early Sunday Morning
activity.
Storm chances will linger into Sunday, but the next best chance for
storms looks to hold off till Monday as a shortwave trough rotates
through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. This will push a
more substantial cold front into Missouri providing focus for more
storms.
Otherwise, still looking at the potential for record low maximum
temperatures for Tuesday and record low temperatures both Tuesday
and Wednesday as cool Canadian air settles south into the Plains
States.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
Forecast still on track for areas of thunderstorm activity north of
the terminals through the evening hours. As the boundary sags
southward winds will eventually go light and variable. Concurrent
with the surface boundary could be periods of thunderstorm activity,
most likely during the late evening to overnight period. Confidence
in TS actually affecting the terminal is higher at KSTJ, with
confidence in TS at the terminal dropping quite a bit at KMCI and
KMKC. Will continue to carry VCTS group for now, and if convection
looks like it will make it into the terminals address it with future
forecast or AMD. Another concern for a brief 2-3 hour period of MVFR
CIGs also exists post frontal, but the saturated layer appears to be
shallow and short-lived, so left it out of this forecast.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 507 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
Moisture transport across northern and central Missouri has proven
sufficient this morning to generate some scattered showers in areas
north and east of Kansas City. This activity is not expected to
persist into the morning much past sunrise, but may bring a quick
shower with a few hundredths of an inch of rain. Still expecting
morning activity to dissipate in time to allow plenty of time for
sunny skies to help make it a hot and humid day across the region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
Overnight convection remains mostly located in areas from northeast
Nebraska arching through central Iowa into Illinois, which coincides
with edge of the nocturnal jet where warm air and moisture transport
is piling up early this morning. Closer to home, starting to get
some scattered radar returns across central Missouri likely owing to
weak moisture transport noted from the SPCs meso-analysis page.
Early morning showers in central Missouri don`t look like they will
last long. HRRR and other meso-models advertising this modest
activity all have it dissipating as quickly as it appeared as the
primary focus for moisture transport will remain to our north along
the southern edge of the prevailing westerlies across Nebraska and
Iowa today. Convection to our north will likely reinforce a weak
cold front settling south into Kansas and Missouri late tonight,
which will eventually bring the focus for some rain farther south
--likely after midnight--. However, before that occurs we will have
to get through a hot and muggy day. H8 temperatures today in the 20C
to 22C range, along with plenty of insolation thanks to clearing
skies, should allow temperates to reach into the 90s across the
entire forecast region today.
For tonight...have bumped POPs after midnight into the likely range
as models are consistent in settling the activity across Nebraska
and Iowa into at least northern Missouri as the front settles south.
Rainfall totals across far northern Missouri could be a bit high
owing to precipitable water values will be over 1.5 inches, though
the storms should be progressive enough with the fronts movement to
limit flooding issues. Otherwise, severe potential can not be ruled
out, but shear looks highly confined to the front and late night
instability is not looking overly favorable. That said, small hail,
locally gusty winds and torrential rain would be the hazards to
highlight with any of our late Saturday Night/early Sunday Morning
activity.
Storm chances will linger into Sunday, but the next best chance for
storms looks to hold off till Monday as a shortwave trough rotates
through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. This will push a
more substantial cold front into Missouri providing focus for more
storms.
Otherwise, still looking at the potential for record low maximum
temperatures for Tuesday and record low temperatures both Tuesday
and Wednesday as cool Canadian air settles south into the Plains
States.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
Early morning showers will remain north and east of the terminals this
morning, thus VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the
daylight and much of the overnight hours. A front settling south
tonight will bring thunderstorms with it. Confidence in the coverage
of the storms is still a bit iffy, and the timing is out towards the
end of this TAF cycle, but have included VCTS at the terminals, and
a TEMPO group at KSTJ, to highlight when storms may impact aviation.
Otherwise, expect breezy southerly winds to prevail during the
daylight hours.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Cutter
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
507 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 507 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
Moisture transport across northern and central Missouri has proven
sufficient this morning to generate some scattered showers in areas
north and east of Kansas City. This activity is not expected to
persist into the morning much past sunrise, but may bring a quick
shower with a few hundredths of an inch of rain. Still expecting
morning activity to dissipate in time to allow plenty of time for
sunny skies to help make it a hot and humid day across the region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
Overnight convection remains mostly located in areas from northeast
Nebraska arching through central Iowa into Illinois, which coincides
with edge of the nocturnal jet where warm air and moisture transport
is piling up early this morning. Closer to home, starting to get
some scattered radar returns across central Missouri likely owing to
weak moisture transport noted from the SPCs meso-analysis page.
Early morning showers in central Missouri don`t look like they will
last long. HRRR and other meso-models advertising this modest
activity all have it dissipating as quickly as it appeared as the
primary focus for moisture transport will remain to our north along
the southern edge of the prevailing westerlies across Nebraska and
Iowa today. Convection to our north will likely reinforce a weak
cold front settling south into Kansas and Missouri late tonight,
which will eventually bring the focus for some rain farther south
--likely after midnight--. However, before that occurs we will have
to get through a hot and muggy day. H8 temperatures today in the 20C
to 22C range, along with plenty of insolation thanks to clearing
skies, should allow temperates to reach into the 90s across the
entire forecast region today.
For tonight...have bumped POPs after midnight into the likely range
as models are consistent in settling the activity across Nebraska
and Iowa into at least northern Missouri as the front settles south.
Rainfall totals across far northern Missouri could be a bit high
owing to precipitable water values will be over 1.5 inches, though
the storms should be progressive enough with the fronts movement to
limit flooding issues. Otherwise, severe potential can not be ruled
out, but shear looks highly confined to the front and late night
instability is not looking overly favorable. That said, small hail,
locally gusty winds and torrential rain would be the hazards to
highlight with any of our late Saturday Night/early Sunday Morning
activity.
Storm chances will linger into Sunday, but the next best chance for
storms looks to hold off till Monday as a shortwave trough rotates
through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. This will push a
more substantial cold front into Missouri providing focus for more
storms.
Otherwise, still looking at the potential for record low maximum
temperatures for Tuesday and record low temperatures both Tuesday
and Wednesday as cool Canadian air settles south into the Plains
States.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
Little change in this forecast from the previous forecast. Inserted
an ending time for the wind gusts Saturday evening. A cold front will
sag southward through the evening/overnight hours on Saturday night.
Expect the convective activity to remain north of the terminals until
the very end of the forecast period, but thunderstorms should be
moving into KSTJ and KMCI/KMKC shortly after 06z.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Cutter
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
351 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
Overnight convection remains mostly located in areas from northeast
Nebraska arching through central Iowa into Illinois, which coincides
with edge of the nocturnal jet where warm air and moisture transport
is piling up early this morning. Closer to home, starting to get
some scattered radar returns across central Missouri likely owing to
weak moisture transport noted from the SPCs meso-analysis page.
Early morning showers in central Missouri don`t look like they will
last long. HRRR and other meso-models advertising this modest
activity all have it dissipating as quickly as it appeared as the
primary focus for moisture transport will remain to our north along
the southern edge of the prevailing westerlies across Nebraska and
Iowa today. Convection to our north will likely reinforce a weak
cold front settling south into Kansas and Missouri late tonight,
which will eventually bring the focus for some rain farther south
--likely after midnight--. However, before that occurs we will have
to get through a hot and muggy day. H8 temperatures today in the 20C
to 22C range, along with plenty of insolation thanks to clearing
skies, should allow temperates to reach into the 90s across the
entire forecast region today.
For tonight...have bumped POPs after midnight into the likely range
as models are consistent in settling the activity across Nebraska
and Iowa into at least northern Missouri as the front settles south.
Rainfall totals across far northern Missouri could be a bit high
owing to precipitable water values will be over 1.5 inches, though
the storms should be progressive enough with the fronts movement to
limit flooding issues. Otherwise, severe potential can not be ruled
out, but shear looks highly confined to the front and late night
instability is not looking overly favorable. That said, small hail,
locally gusty winds and torrential rain would be the hazards to
highlight with any of our late Saturday Night/early Sunday Morning
activity.
Storm chances will linger into Sunday, but the next best chance for
storms looks to hold off till Monday as a shortwave trough rotates
through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. This will push a
more substantial cold front into Missouri providing focus for more
storms.
Otherwise, still looking at the potential for record low maximum
temperatures for Tuesday and record low temperatures both Tuesday
and Wednesday as cool Canadian air settles south into the Plains
States.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
Little change in this forecast from the previous forecast. Inserted
an ending time for the wind gusts Saturday evening. A cold front will
sag southward through the evening/overnight hours on Saturday night.
Expect the convective activity to remain north of the terminals until
the very end of the forecast period, but thunderstorms should be
moving into KSTJ and KMCI/KMKC shortly after 06z.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
746 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NWRN ONTARIO WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WAS PRESENT OVER NRN MANITOBA WHILE A MID LEVEL JET
STREAK EXTENDED FROM NRN SASKATCHEWAN...SWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND
EAST INTO WISCONSIN. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER WESTERN UTAH
WITH SHORTWAVES NOTED OVER SRN IDAHO...AND OVER NERN COLORADO. WV
IMAGERY AS OF 2 PM CDT...AS A COUPLE OF AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FIRST WAS OVER NERN NEBRASKA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK...AND A SECOND OVER SERN
WYOMING INVOF OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE ENTERING WESTERN
WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MONTANA...INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...INTO SRN MINNESOTA. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WERE GUSTY OVER NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. ATTM...THE
COLDEST AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT...WAS JUST BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 76 AT
IMPERIAL TO 88 AT NORTH PLATTE.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...AN
UPDATED FORECAST IS APPROPRIATE. OTHERWISE...I USED A BLEND OF THE
CURRENT FORECAS...THE RAP13 AND THE HRRR FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
THE FRONT COMING DOWN LATE TONIGHT IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER AT LEAST A
FEW STORMS AS IT ENCOUNTERS DECENT MOISTURE AND AT LEAST
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECASTING CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DECENT FROPA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THIS EVENING...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
FORECAST AREA AS CONVECTION WILL RIDE SE FROM SERN WYOMING.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA IN THE
VICINITY OF A JET STREAK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
CANADA. LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z MONDAY. AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS. ATTM...THE BEST CHANCES HOWEVER
WILL BE IN THE EASTERN CWA...WHERE STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL RESIDE. THIS FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT
WILL BE FORCED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
DRY CONDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 IN THE
NORTHEAST...TO AROUND 80 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. NAM HAS A
BETTER HANDLE ON ACTUAL WEATHER THIS MORNING. GFS SEEMS TO BE OVER
DONE WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TERM AS COOL
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS DRAWS COLDER AIR SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK. CONTRAST
BETWEEN THIS COLD LOW AND WARM UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS OKLAHOMA MONDAY
NIGHT AND PILE UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES IN WYOMING
AND COLORADO. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST AS COOL DRY AIR FILTERS INTO NORTHERN PLAINS. NAM IS HINTING
AT STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING IN UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
THE PANHANDLE. THIS WOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. STILL
USING ENSEMBLES WITH ZERO STANDARD DEVIATION LOWS JUST ABOVE
RECORDS. RECORD LOWS FOR NORTH PLATTE IN THE MONTH OF JULY...ONE
50 AND ALL OF THE REST IN THE 40S AND FOR VALENTINE 2 RECORD LOWS
IN THE 30S THE REST IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 55
NEAR IMPERIAL TO 48 AT VALENTINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...MIXING AND DEWPOINT. AS UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BOUNDARY TO THE
WEST WILL MOVE EAST AND PLACE SOUTHWEST ZONES WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
HAVE GONE WITH SHOWERS AND ISO T. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S WITH MORE CLOUD COVER BETTER MIXED
LAYER IN RETURN FLOW AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WITH AREAS OF SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S. PRECIPITATION
ENDING WEDNESDAY EVENING AS STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND IN THE 80S SATURDAY. INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...BUT ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A BBW-LBF-OGA LINE
UNTIL A FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THEN THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THERE IS WIDE
VARIATION AMONG THE SHORT TERM MODELS REGARDING THE LOCATION AND
COVERAGE OF THE STORMS. WITH THAT LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...WE WILL
NOT INCLUDE TS/VCTS IN THE FORECASTS FOR VTN AND LBF.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1238 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE ECM FAVORS THE HIGH PLAINS AND SWRN NEB WHILE
THE NAM AND GEM SOLNS FAVOR NRN NEB. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND
OF THESE SOLNS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS. NONE OF THE MODELS
SHOW HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING BUT GIVEN THE WEAK FOCUS THIS MIGHT BE
NORMAL.
THE RAP SUGGESTS NO SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN MOISTURE...PWS OVER
1.5 INCHES...SO STORMS WHICH FORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE
FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 70S TO MID 80S. TONIGHT
LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS THE FIRST PUSH OF DRIER
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD HELP TO WARM
TEMPS INTO THE 80S. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND NOT
LOOKING AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY. PWATS DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH...WHICH
IS BELOW THE 50 PERCENTILE FOR JULY. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS
LIMITED COOL AIR ALOFT WILL CREATE SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES. LOWERED
POPS FOR THE DAY...ALTHOUGH DID NOT ELIMINATE. MEANWHILE
UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO NEB FOR MONDAY. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
PLAINS. TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S...WITH MANY LOCATIONS HOLDING
IN THE LOWER 70S. MONSOON FLOW CONTINUES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS BRING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE INTO
SW NEB AND WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS.
COLD SNAP WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATE WED AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
LIFT INTO TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL THEN EXPAND
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MODELS PUSH THE MONSOON MOISTURE SOUTH AS WARM
AIR EXPANDS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO AROUND
80 FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE 80S FOR FRIDAY. NUMERICAL MOS
GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE 90S FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WEST...HOWEVER THE WAY THIS SUMMER HAS GONE...HIGHS LIKELY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
DISTURBANCES FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED ACTIVITY. FORECAST IS DRY AT
THIS TIME...BUT LOW POPS MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD DIFFICULTIES THUS FAR WITH THE STRATUS
THIS MORNING...STRUGGLING WITH THE EXTENT...TIMING OF BURN OFF AND
LOCATION...THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL IN THE NEAR
TERM. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THERE SHOULD BE GENERAL CEILING IMPROVEMENT
WITH MOST TERMINALS EXPERIENCING VFR BY 21Z TODAY. HOWEVER STORMS
MAY RE-FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN...ERRATIC WIND AND HAIL. ATTM...THE GREATEST THREAT OF
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...BUT STORMS IMPACTING EASTERN TERMINALS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IMPACTING KLBF OR KVTN IS LOW ENOUGH TO
NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AVIATION
FORECAST AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF CONVECTION IS REALIZED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
628 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE ECM FAVORS THE HIGH PLAINS AND SWRN NEB WHILE
THE NAM AND GEM SOLNS FAVOR NRN NEB. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND
OF THESE SOLNS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS. NONE OF THE MODELS
SHOW HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING BUT GIVEN THE WEAK FOCUS THIS MIGHT BE
NORMAL.
THE RAP SUGGESTS NO SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN MOISTURE...PWS OVER
1.5 INCHES...SO STORMS WHICH FORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE
FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 70S TO MID 80S. TONIGHT
LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS THE FIRST PUSH OF DRIER
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD HELP TO WARM
TEMPS INTO THE 80S. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND NOT
LOOKING AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY. PWATS DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH...WHICH
IS BELOW THE 50 PERCENTILE FOR JULY. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS
LIMITED COOL AIR ALOFT WILL CREATE SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES. LOWERED
POPS FOR THE DAY...ALTHOUGH DID NOT ELIMINATE. MEANWHILE
UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO NEB FOR MONDAY. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
PLAINS. TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S...WITH MANY LOCATIONS HOLDING
IN THE LOWER 70S. MONSOON FLOW CONTINUES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS BRING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE INTO
SW NEB AND WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS.
COLD SNAP WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATE WED AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
LIFT INTO TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL THEN EXPAND
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MODELS PUSH THE MONSOON MOISTURE SOUTH AS WARM
AIR EXPANDS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO AROUND
80 FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE 80S FOR FRIDAY. NUMERICAL MOS
GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE 90S FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WEST...HOWEVER THE WAY THIS SUMMER HAS GONE...HIGHS LIKELY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
DISTURBANCES FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED ACTIVITY. FORECAST IS DRY AT
THIS TIME...BUT LOW POPS MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE PLATTE VALLEY IS PRODUCING IFR CIGS. THESE
SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR/VFR 14Z-16Z. OTHER IFR CIGS ACROSS KBBW-KONL
AREAS DEVELOPED FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT. THESE ALSO
SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY TO MVFR/VFR 16Z-18Z. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE DEVELOPS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE
FCST AREA 00Z-03Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
355 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE ECM FAVORS THE HIGH PLAINS AND SWRN NEB WHILE
THE NAM AND GEM SOLNS FAVOR NRN NEB. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND
OF THESE SOLNS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS. NONE OF THE MODELS
SHOW HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING BUT GIVEN THE WEAK FOCUS THIS MIGHT BE
NORMAL.
THE RAP SUGGESTS NO SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN MOISTURE...PWS OVER
1.5 INCHES...SO STORMS WHICH FORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE
FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 70S TO MID 80S. TONIGHT
LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS THE FIRST PUSH OF DRIER
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD HELP TO WARM
TEMPS INTO THE 80S. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND NOT
LOOKING AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY. PWATS DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH...WHICH
IS BELOW THE 50 PERCENTILE FOR JULY. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS
LIMITED COOL AIR ALOFT WILL CREATE SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES. LOWERED
POPS FOR THE DAY...ALTHOUGH DID NOT ELIMINATE. MEANWHILE
UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO NEB FOR MONDAY. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
PLAINS. TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S...WITH MANY LOCATIONS HOLDING
IN THE LOWER 70S. MONSOON FLOW CONTINUES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS BRING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE INTO
SW NEB AND WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS.
COLD SNAP WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATE WED AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
LIFT INTO TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL THEN EXPAND
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MODELS PUSH THE MONSOON MOISTURE SOUTH AS WARM
AIR EXPANDS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO AROUND
80 FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE 80S FOR FRIDAY. NUMERICAL MOS
GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE 90S FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WEST...HOWEVER THE WAY THIS SUMMER HAS GONE...HIGHS LIKELY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
DISTURBANCES FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED ACTIVITY. FORECAST IS DRY AT
THIS TIME...BUT LOW POPS MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA WILL CONTINUE BEYOND 08Z...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM AT ANY ONE POINT IS LOW.
THEREFORE...AFTER 07Z...WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION TO VCTS BOTH VTN
AND LBF. RADAR INDICATIONS ARE THAT TWO ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEMS ARE
DEVELOPING AS THE RAPID UPDATE SHORT TERM FORECASTS INDICATED. THERE
IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CHANGE AND BRING STORMS TO LBF AND VTN BEFORE 09Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1238 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR IMPERIAL IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO
OMAHA IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE NOSE OF THE JET WILL BE DIRECTED AT
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN VEER
SOUTHWEST TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE REGARDING CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FIRST...THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
/AIDED BY A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVING EASTWARD
TOWARD THAT AREA/ SHOULD PROPAGATE EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF
NEBRASKA TO THE NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF FRONT WILL AID STORM-RELATIVE
INFLOW...AND THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD FURTHER
SUPPORT INFLOW AS WELL AS CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION. DUE TO THE
SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO
A CLUSTER AND POSSIBLY AN MCS AS THEY MOVE EAST TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA MID EVENING ONWARD. THE SECOND AND LESS LIKELY
SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR A FEW SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA NEAR THE WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE WOULD LIKELY BE HIGH BASED AND ISOLATED. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL SUPPORTS THE FIRST SCENARIO...AND THE FORECAST
WILL BE TAILORED IN THAT DIRECTION.
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL
MERGE WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA OR NORTHERN
KANSAS...WHERE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. ACROSS OUR AREA...MOIST EAST/NORTHEAST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE...AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEAK AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. WILL LIMIT POPS TO 30
PERCENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014
THE MAIN POINTS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST INCLUDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A DECREASE IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A STATIONARY FRONT
WILL EXIST TO THE SOUTH IN KS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ND/MN/WI ON MONDAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS UPPER LOW AND HELP PUSH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN OVER
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR A COOL TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE
HIGH SLOW TO MOVE EAST...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS MAY LEAD TO
A FEW SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BOTH LOOK
A LITTLE WEAKER FOR SUNDAY...LIMITING THE SEVERE RISK A BIT COMPARED
TO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY. A FEW OTHER CHANCES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK...PRIMARILY IN THE SW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA WILL CONTINUE BEYOND 08Z...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM AT ANY ONE POINT IS LOW.
THEREFORE...AFTER 07Z...WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION TO VCTS BOTH VTN
AND LBF. RADAR INDICATIONS ARE THAT TWO ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEMS ARE
DEVELOPING AS THE RAPID UPDATE SHORT TERM FORECASTS INDICATED. THERE
IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CHANGE AND BRING STORMS TO LBF AND VTN BEFORE 09Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIE BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TERMINAL SITES REST OF
TONIGHT. USING VCSH AT FMN/GUP FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT. TOOK VCSH OUT OF ABQ/AEG AND SAF ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT
SOME SHORT DURATION EFFECTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MTN TOP
OBCSD WILL OCCASIONALLY BE FOUND ALONG THE SAN MATEOS AND
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AREA BUT CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
MVFR CATEGORIES. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE SE
PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS GOING A LITTLE MORE BULLISH FOR ROW SEEING
SOME MVFR IMPACTS. LOWERED CIGS THERE ACCORDINGLY. SOME SIGNATURE
AT TCC/LVS BUT LESS LIKELY SO KEPT MENTION OUT OF THOSE TERMINAL
SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SH/TS WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. USING VCSH AS A PLACEHOLDER AT
THE PRESENT TIME.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...811 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014...
.UPDATE...
ALLOWED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT. TWEAKED POPS
A BIT FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS. MAINLY ADJUSTED FAR
EASTERN EDGE TO LOWER OR REMOVE POPS. ZONES OUT SHORTLY. CHJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE THE FOCUS
SHIFTS...OR PERHAPS JUST SPREADS...INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NEXT WEEK
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
ALSO COOL TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ALL WEEK...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING EXISTS DAILY...
ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCARS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO MUCH OF EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NM AHEAD OF AN EASTERLY WAVE. MONSOONAL PLUME IS CERTAINLY FOCUSED
ACROSS WESTERN NM WHERE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN PLACE AND PWATS ARE
AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. APPEARS LIKE THE DRY AIR HAS PUSHED FURTHER
WEST THAN MODELS SUGGESTED...BUT THE 17Z HRRR APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
WITH SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST...WHERE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS LIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THIS AREA AS THESE LOCALES HAVE RECEIVED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TODAY...AND WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AND STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY TOWARD
THE WEST...IT MAKES SENSE THAT STORMS FAVOR THAT AREA TONIGHT. THERE
IS ALSO A PRECARIOUS BOUNDARY RIGHT ALONG THE NE NM/SE CO BORDER
THAT HAS RECENTLY SPARKED AN ISOLATED STORM. LOOKS LIKE THIS
BOUNDARY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE KEPT POPS AT A
MINIMUM. ABQ AREA WILL BE TRICKY...AS STORMS THUS FAR HAVE STRUGGLED
THAT HAVE FORMED ON THE SANDIAS DUE TO THE DRY AIR...BUT ADDITIONAL
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF THE MTNS AND BASED ON STORM
MOTIONS...SHOULD ARRIVE IN ABQ PRIOR TO 6PM IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER.
THE EASTERLY WAVE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL
STILL BE SOME DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE EAST TOMORROW...BUT THE UPPER
HIGH THAT IS OVER THE NE NOW...WILL START TO SHIFT WNW. THIS WILL
MEAN LITTLE CHANGE FOR STORM COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT FOR SATURDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL TRAVEL WESTWARD...EXCEPT STORMS ACROSS THE NE WHICH
MAY DRIFT EASTWARD. THESE NE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL GENERALLY STALL ACROSS THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LATER IN THE EVENING MAY PUSH IT FURTHER SOUTH HOWEVER.
THE WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE NE LOOKS TO BE REINFORCED A BIT ON
SUNDAY...AND THIS MAY PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE EXPANDED
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NE FOR THIS REASON. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER
HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WHICH GENERALLY TILTS
THE WEAK MONSOONAL PLUME OVER INTO MORE OF THE STATE.
WITH AN EXISTING BOUNDARY IN PLAY ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE INCREASED
POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MONDAY. THEN THE STRONGER
FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PUTTING ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EAST. THE WEST WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
TOO...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT PUSHES THRU THE GAPS.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER NM MID WEEK AS THE PATTERN
BECOMES QUITE AMPLIFIED. THIS IS NOT GOOD IN TERMS OF RECEIVING
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...THE TRADITIONAL MONSOON WAY...BUT REGULAR
DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE USHER IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE EAST BEHIND BACK DOOR FRONTS...AND ONE SUCH STRONG FRONT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ONCE AGAIN. THUS...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THRU THE NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE HINTING AT REBUILDING THE
UPPER HIGH OVER NM NEXT WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE WITH WETTING RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CENTRAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY. AN EXPANSION IN THE WETTING RAIN PATTERN WILL COMMENCE
ON SUNDAY WHEN A BACK DOOR FRONT SUPPORTS INCREASED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES. A WIDESPREAD WET PATTERN
WILL THEN BE IN PLACE FOR THE WORK WEEK WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF
BURN SCAR FLOODING.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS
WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND AREA AND
SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. A BROAD AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AHEAD
OF THE WAVE IS USHERING IN MID LEVEL DRY AIR INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...THUS SHUTTING DOWN WETTING RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.
SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST WHERE SOME
EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY GOOD
VALUES ELSEWHERE.
UPCOMING PATTERN CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WELL NORTH OF NEW
MEXICO AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND AN UPPER LOW
DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY STARTING
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL BACK DOOR FRONTS WILL EDGE
INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES...ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN FROM THE
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. MONSOON PLUME WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST THUS ONLY THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY.
FOR THE WORK WEEK...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN PERSISTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND REGULAR WIND SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST
MAINTAINING MOIST LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. EXTEND MODELS SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ON EARLY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. WHILE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF SPECIFIC FEATURES...THE CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN FOR THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN POSSIBLE BURN
SCAR FLOODING... ARE FAIRLY CERTAIN. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES LOOK TO
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. PERIODS OF POOR TO FAIR
VENTILATION CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY...PORTIONS OF THE WEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
135 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING ANOTHER NICE
DAY TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1220 PM UPDATE...LOCAL RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED PULSE CONVECTION
OVER NE PA AND SRN CATSKILLS. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC ACROSS FA
THIS AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
1030 AM UPDATE...12Z BUF RAOB AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A
FAIRLY STRONG CAP AROUND 700 MB WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON JUST
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS OTHERWISE ALL GOOD.
PREVIOUS DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION TODAY. MDL
PROFILES DISPLAY ALOT OF VARIABILITY THIS AFTN W/RESPECT TO POTNL
FOR AFTN CONVECTION. 00Z BUF PROFILE SHOWS A GOOD CAP AT 700 MB
WHICH WOULD TEND TO INHIBIT ACTIVITY. LOW LVL MSTR APPEARS
OVERDONE IN THE NAM...WHILE THE RUC MAY BE DISPLAYING A DRY BIAS
W/RESPECT TO LOW LVL TD/S. GFS PROFILES APPEAR TO BE MOST
REASONABLE AND SUGGEST THE CAP WILL BE ENUF TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION
THIS AFTN. IN ADDN...FCST K`S ARE GNRLY IN THE U20S THIS AFTN.
WHILE A STRAY SHRA CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATE TDA...WE`VE OPTED TO
LOWER POPS TO BLO SLGT CHC. BETTER CHCS FOR CONVECTION WILL COME
TWDS DAYBREAK AS LEADING S/WV AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING GTLAKES UPR
LOW APRCHS THE RGN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
XPCT SHRA/TSRA TO OVERSPREAD THE RGN SUN MRNG...THEN WORK THRU
DURING THE DAY. CAPES GNRLY IN THE 500-1000 RNG...WITH RATHER
IMPRSV WIND FIELDS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A LOW END SVR THREAT FOR
MUCH OF THE RGN. AFTER THIS 1ST WAVE WORKS THRU...SOME DIFFS DVLP
IN THE GUIDANCE W/RESPECT TO TIMING AND DVLPMT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPR TROF AXIS. XPCT ANOTHER PUSH OF MSTR NWD AS NXT WAVE APRCHS. WE
KEPT HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PDS. THE FINGER LAKES...WRN
MOHAWK VLY AND SRN TUG COULD SEE A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MON BEFORE
THE NXT WAVES MOVS IN...SO ONLY INDICATE CHC POPS THERE WITH
HIGHER POPS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ENDING EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THAT THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CUT OFF LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO, THAT WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER COOL. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S,
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 50S (WITH 40S POSSIBLE IN OUR NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS). BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT, RAIN CHANCES LOOK LOW. WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AS THE MAIN TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH, AND YET AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP THE COAST. BOTH
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW RIGHT NOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A SCT TO
AT TIMES BKN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE
WAY TO JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL MAINLY BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KAVP WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND BUT TOO
LIMITED IN DURATION OR COVERAGE TO INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS.
FOG DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TONIGHT AT KELM DUE TO STRONG WINDS OFF
THE SURFACE. ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A TROF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. INCLUDED A PROB30
GROUP FOR THUNDER IN OUR MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR STORMS, WHICH WILL
BE ACROSS CENTRAL NY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED/THUR...PRIMARILY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1223 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING ANOTHER NICE
DAY TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1220 PM UPDATE...LOCAL RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED PULSE CONVECTION
OVER NE PA AND SRN CATSKILLS. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC ACROSS FA
THIS AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
1030 AM UPDATE...12Z BUF RAOB AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A
FAIRLY STRONG CAP AROUND 700 MB WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON JUST
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS OTHERWISE ALL GOOD.
PREVIOUS DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION TODAY. MDL
PROFILES DISPLAY ALOT OF VARIABILITY THIS AFTN W/RESPECT TO POTNL
FOR AFTN CONVECTION. 00Z BUF PROFILE SHOWS A GOOD CAP AT 700 MB
WHICH WOULD TEND TO INHIBIT ACTIVITY. LOW LVL MSTR APPEARS
OVERDONE IN THE NAM...WHILE THE RUC MAY BE DISPLAYING A DRY BIAS
W/RESPECT TO LOW LVL TD/S. GFS PROFILES APPEAR TO BE MOST
REASONABLE AND SUGGEST THE CAP WILL BE ENUF TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION
THIS AFTN. IN ADDN...FCST K`S ARE GNRLY IN THE U20S THIS AFTN.
WHILE A STRAY SHRA CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATE TDA...WE`VE OPTED TO
LOWER POPS TO BLO SLGT CHC. BETTER CHCS FOR CONVECTION WILL COME
TWDS DAYBREAK AS LEADING S/WV AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING GTLAKES UPR
LOW APRCHS THE RGN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
XPCT SHRA/TSRA TO OVERSPREAD THE RGN SUN MRNG...THEN WORK THRU
DURING THE DAY. CAPES GNRLY IN THE 500-1000 RNG...WITH RATHER
IMPRSV WIND FIELDS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A LOW END SVR THREAT FOR
MUCH OF THE RGN. AFTER THIS 1ST WAVE WORKS THRU...SOME DIFFS DVLP
IN THE GUIDANCE W/RESPECT TO TIMING AND DVLPMT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPR TROF AXIS. XPCT ANOTHER PUSH OF MSTR NWD AS NXT WAVE APRCHS. WE
KEPT HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PDS. THE FINGER LAKES...WRN
MOHAWK VLY AND SRN TUG COULD SEE A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MON BEFORE
THE NXT WAVES MOVS IN...SO ONLY INDICATE CHC POPS THERE WITH
HIGHER POPS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ENDING EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THAT THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CUT OFF LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO, THAT WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER COOL. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S,
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 50S (WITH 40S POSSIBLE IN OUR NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS). BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT, RAIN CHANCES LOOK LOW. WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AS THE MAIN TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH, AND YET AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP THE COAST. BOTH
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW RIGHT NOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
KELM HAS DROPPED DOWN TO MVFR VSBYS AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE
THROUGH 13Z, OTHER THAN THAT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AVP LATE IN THE
PERIOD. EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO START OFF WITH A SCT MID-DECK ARND
7KFT AT 12Z WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY 15Z WITH CLD HGTS STILL
REMAINING VFR AROUND 5KFT. CUMULUS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 00Z
WITH JUST HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE LOWERING TO 10KFT
AT NY TERMINALS AFTER 09Z. AVP WILL BE LAST TO SEE BKN MID-DECK
ARRIVE IN, THUS HAVE GONE PREDOMINANT MVFR VSBYS AFTER 09Z AT THIS
TERMINAL. CONTINUE TO HAVE VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY AND WILL WITHHOLD FROM ANY TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL THEY
ACTUALLY DEVELOP.
WINDS LGT/VRB THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5-8 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST BY MID-MORNING, DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED...PRIMARILY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1217 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING ANOTHER NICE
DAY TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...12Z BUF RAOB AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A
FAIRLY STRONG CAP AROUND 700 MB WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON JUST
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS OTHERWISE ALL GOOD.
PREVIOUS DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION TODAY. MDL
PROFILES DISPLAY ALOT OF VARIABILITY THIS AFTN W/RESPECT TO POTNL
FOR AFTN CONVECTION. 00Z BUF PROFILE SHOWS A GOOD CAP AT 700 MB
WHICH WOULD TEND TO INHIBIT ACTIVITY. LOW LVL MSTR APPEARS
OVERDONE IN THE NAM...WHILE THE RUC MAY BE DISPLAYING A DRY BIAS
W/RESPECT TO LOW LVL TD/S. GFS PROFILES APPEAR TO BE MOST
REASONABLE AND SUGGEST THE CAP WILL BE ENUF TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION
THIS AFTN. IN ADDN...FCST K`S ARE GNRLY IN THE U20S THIS AFTN.
WHILE A STRAY SHRA CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATE TDA...WE`VE OPTED TO
LOWER POPS TO BLO SLGT CHC. BETTER CHCS FOR CONVECTION WILL COME
TWDS DAYBREAK AS LEADING S/WV AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING GTLAKES UPR
LOW APRCHS THE RGN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
XPCT SHRA/TSRA TO OVERSPREAD THE RGN SUN MRNG...THEN WORK THRU
DURING THE DAY. CAPES GNRLY IN THE 500-1000 RNG...WITH RATHER
IMPRSV WIND FIELDS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A LOW END SVR THREAT FOR
MUCH OF THE RGN. AFTER THIS 1ST WAVE WORKS THRU...SOME DIFFS DVLP
IN THE GUIDANCE W/RESPECT TO TIMING AND DVLPMT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPR TROF AXIS. XPCT ANOTHER PUSH OF MSTR NWD AS NXT WAVE APRCHS. WE
KEPT HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PDS. THE FINGER LAKES...WRN
MOHAWK VLY AND SRN TUG COULD SEE A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MON BEFORE
THE NXT WAVES MOVS IN...SO ONLY INDICATE CHC POPS THERE WITH
HIGHER POPS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ENDING EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THAT THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CUT OFF LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO, THAT WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER COOL. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S,
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 50S (WITH 40S POSSIBLE IN OUR NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS). BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT, RAIN CHANCES LOOK LOW. WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AS THE MAIN TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH, AND YET AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP THE COAST. BOTH
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW RIGHT NOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
KELM HAS DROPPED DOWN TO MVFR VSBYS AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE
THROUGH 13Z, OTHER THAN THAT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AVP LATE IN THE
PERIOD. EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO START OFF WITH A SCT MID-DECK ARND
7KFT AT 12Z WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY 15Z WITH CLD HGTS STILL
REMAINING VFR AROUND 5KFT. CUMULUS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 00Z
WITH JUST HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE LOWERING TO 10KFT
AT NY TERMINALS AFTER 09Z. AVP WILL BE LAST TO SEE BKN MID-DECK
ARRIVE IN, THUS HAVE GONE PREDOMINANT MVFR VSBYS AFTER 09Z AT THIS
TERMINAL. CONTINUE TO HAVE VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY AND WILL WITHHOLD FROM ANY TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL THEY
ACTUALLY DEVELOP.
WINDS LGT/VRB THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5-8 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST BY MID-MORNING, DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED...PRIMARILY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1035 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING ANOTHER NICE
DAY TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...12Z BUF RAOB AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A
FAIRLY STRONG CAP AROUND 700 MB WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON JUST
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS OTHERWISE ALL GOOD.
PREVIOUS DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION TODAY. MDL
PROFILES DISPLAY ALOT OF VARIABILITY THIS AFTN W/RESPECT TO POTNL
FOR AFTN CONVECTION. 00Z BUF PROFILE SHOWS A GOOD CAP AT 700 MB
WHICH WOULD TEND TO INHIBIT ACTIVITY. LOW LVL MSTR APPEARS
OVERDONE IN THE NAM...WHILE THE RUC MAY BE DISPLAYING A DRY BIAS
W/RESPECT TO LOW LVL TD/S. GFS PROFILES APPEAR TO BE MOST
REASONABLE AND SUGGEST THE CAP WILL BE ENUF TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION
THIS AFTN. IN ADDN...FCST K`S ARE GNRLY IN THE U20S THIS AFTN.
WHILE A STRAY SHRA CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATE TDA...WE`VE OPTED TO
LOWER POPS TO BLO SLGT CHC. BETTER CHCS FOR CONVECTION WILL COME
TWDS DAYBREAK AS LEADING S/WV AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING GTLAKES UPR
LOW APRCHS THE RGN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
XPCT SHRA/TSRA TO OVERSPREAD THE RGN SUN MRNG...THEN WORK THRU
DURING THE DAY. CAPES GNRLY IN THE 500-1000 RNG...WITH RATHER
IMPRSV WIND FIELDS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A LOW END SVR THREAT FOR
MUCH OF THE RGN. AFTER THIS 1ST WAVE WORKS THRU...SOME DIFFS DVLP
IN THE GUIDANCE W/RESPECT TO TIMING AND DVLPMT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPR TROF AXIS. XPCT ANOTHER PUSH OF MSTR NWD AS NXT WAVE APRCHS. WE
KEPT HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PDS. THE FINGER LAKES...WRN
MOHAWK VLY AND SRN TUG COULD SEE A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MON BEFORE
THE NXT WAVES MOVS IN...SO ONLY INDICATE CHC POPS THERE WITH
HIGHER POPS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS TO LONG TERM GRIDS WITH THIS MORNING`S UPDATE. 00Z MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING OF LOPRES
AND ASSOC FROPA WITH LATEST EURO NOT BRINGING CDFNT THRU AREA
UNTIL 12Z WED WHILE 00Z GFS BRINGS IT THRU BY 12Z TUE. UPR LVL
LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT AS THEY TEND TO MEANDER AS
THEY GET CUT OFF FM THE MAIN FLOW, THUS HV MADE NO CHGS TO EXTNDD
FOR THIS REASON.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND PERSISTS THROUGH LATE WEEK. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME OF WHICH MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE DEPENDING ON HOW UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS IS AT THE
TIME OF FROPA. THIS FAR OUT, MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THEREFORE THERE STILL
REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT REST OF PERIOD
LOOKS DRY AND COOL WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE VCNTY. HIGH TEMPS WED
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
KELM HAS DROPPED DOWN TO MVFR VSBYS AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE
THROUGH 13Z, OTHER THAN THAT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AVP LATE IN THE
PERIOD. EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO START OFF WITH A SCT MID-DECK ARND
7KFT AT 12Z WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY 15Z WITH CLD HGTS STILL
REMAINING VFR AROUND 5KFT. CUMULUS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 00Z
WITH JUST HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE LOWERING TO 10KFT
AT NY TERMINALS AFTER 09Z. AVP WILL BE LAST TO SEE BKN MID-DECK
ARRIVE IN, THUS HAVE GONE PREDOMINANT MVFR VSBYS AFTER 09Z AT THIS
TERMINAL. CONTINUE TO HAVE VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY AND WILL WITHHOLD FROM ANY TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL THEY
ACTUALLY DEVELOP.
WINDS LGT/VRB THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5-8 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST BY MID-MORNING, DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED...PRIMARILY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
638 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING ANOTHER NICE
DAY TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION TODAY. MDL PROFILES
DISPLAY ALOT OF VARIABILITY THIS AFTN W/RESPECT TO POTNL FOR AFTN
CONVECTION. 00Z BUF PROFILE SHOWS A GOOD CAP AT 700 MB WHICH WOULD
TEND TO INHIBIT ACTIVITY. LOW LVL MSTR APPEARS OVERDONE IN THE
NAM...WHILE THE RUC MAY BE DISPLAYING A DRY BIAS W/RESPECT TO LOW
LVL TD/S. GFS PROFILES APPEAR TO BE MOST REASONABLE AND SUGGEST
THE CAP WILL BE ENUF TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION THIS AFTN. IN
ADDN...FCST K`S ARE GNRLY IN THE U20S THIS AFTN. WHILE A STRAY
SHRA CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATE TDA...WE`VE OPTED TO LOWER POPS TO BLO
SLGT CHC. BETTER CHCS FOR CONVECTION WILL COME TWDS DAYBREAK AS
LEADING S/WV AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING GTLAKES UPR LOW APRCHS THE
RGN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
XPCT SHRA/TSRA TO OVERSPREAD THE RGN SUN MRNG...THEN WORK THRU
DURING THE DAY. CAPES GNRLY IN THE 500-1000 RNG...WITH RATHER
IMPRSV WIND FIELDS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A LOW END SVR THREAT FOR
MUCH OF THE RGN. AFTER THIS 1ST WAVE WORKS THRU...SOME DIFFS DVLP
IN THE GUIDANCE W/RESPECT TO TIMING AND DVLPMT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPR TROF AXIS. XPCT ANOTHER PUSH OF MSTR NWD AS NXT WAVE APRCHS. WE
KEPT HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PDS. THE FINGER LAKES...WRN
MOHAWK VLY AND SRN TUG COULD SEE A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MON BEFORE
THE NXT WAVES MOVS IN...SO ONLY INDICATE CHC POPS THERE WITH
HIGHER POPS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS TO LONG TERM GRIDS WITH THIS MORNING`S UPDATE. 00Z MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING OF LOPRES
AND ASSOC FROPA WITH LATEST EURO NOT BRINGING CDFNT THRU AREA
UNTIL 12Z WED WHILE 00Z GFS BRINGS IT THRU BY 12Z TUE. UPR LVL
LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT AS THEY TEND TO MEANDER AS
THEY GET CUT OFF FM THE MAIN FLOW, THUS HV MADE NO CHGS TO EXTNDD
FOR THIS REASON.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND PERSISTS THROUGH LATE WEEK. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME OF WHICH MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE DEPENDING ON HOW UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS IS AT THE
TIME OF FROPA. THIS FAR OUT, MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THEREFORE THERE STILL
REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT REST OF PERIOD
LOOKS DRY AND COOL WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE VCNTY. HIGH TEMPS WED
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
KELM HAS DROPPED DOWN TO MVFR VSBYS AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE
THROUGH 13Z, OTHER THAN THAT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AVP LATE IN THE
PERIOD. EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO START OFF WITH A SCT MID-DECK ARND
7KFT AT 12Z WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY 15Z WITH CLD HGTS STILL
REMAINING VFR AROUND 5KFT. CUMULUS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 00Z
WITH JUST HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE LOWERING TO 10KFT
AT NY TERMINALS AFTER 09Z. AVP WILL BE LAST TO SEE BKN MID-DECK
ARRIVE IN, THUS HAVE GONE PREDOMINANT MVFR VSBYS AFTER 09Z AT THIS
TERMINAL. CONTINUE TO HAVE VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY AND WILL WITHHOLD FROM ANY TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL THEY
ACTUALLY DEVELOP.
WINDS LGT/VRB THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5-8 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST BY MID-MORNING, DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED...PRIMARILY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
300 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING ANOTHER NICE
DAY TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION TODAY. MDL PROFILES
DISPLAY ALOT OF VARIABILITY THIS AFTN W/RESPECT TO POTNL FOR AFTN
CONVECTION. 00Z BUF PROFILE SHOWS A GOOD CAP AT 700 MB WHICH WOULD
TEND TO INHIBIT ACTIVITY. LOW LVL MSTR APPEARS OVERDONE IN THE
NAM...WHILE THE RUC MAY BE DISPLAYING A DRY BIAS W/RESPECT TO LOW
LVL TD/S. GFS PROFILES APPEAR TO BE MOST REASONABLE AND SUGGEST
THE CAP WILL BE ENUF TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION THIS AFTN. IN
ADDN...FCST K`S ARE GNRLY IN THE U20S THIS AFTN. WHILE A STRAY
SHRA CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATE TDA...WE`VE OPTED TO LOWER POPS TO BLO
SLGT CHC. BETTER CHCS FOR CONVECTION WILL COME TWDS DAYBREAK AS
LEADING S/WV AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING GTLAKES UPR LOW APRCHS THE
RGN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
XPCT SHRA/TSRA TO OVERSPREAD THE RGN SUN MRNG...THEN WORK THRU
DURING THE DAY. CAPES GNRLY IN THE 500-1000 RNG...WITH RATHER
IMPRSV WIND FIELDS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A LOW END SVR THREAT FOR
MUCH OF THE RGN. AFTER THIS 1ST WAVE WORKS THRU...SOME DIFFS DVLP
IN THE GUIDANCE W/RESPECT TO TIMING AND DVLPMT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPR TROF AXIS. XPCT ANOTHER PUSH OF MSTR NWD AS NXT WAVE APRCHS. WE
KEPT HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PDS. THE FINGER LAKES...WRN
MOHAWK VLY AND SRN TUG COULD SEE A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MON BEFORE
THE NXT WAVES MOVS IN...SO ONLY INDICATE CHC POPS THERE WITH
HIGHER POPS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS TO LONG TERM GRIDS WITH THIS MORNING`S UPDATE. 00Z MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING OF LOPRES
AND ASSOC FROPA WITH LATEST EURO NOT BRINGING CDFNT THRU AREA
UNTIL 12Z WED WHILE 00Z GFS BRINGS IT THRU BY 12Z TUE. UPR LVL
LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT AS THEY TEND TO MEANDER AS
THEY GET CUT OFF FM THE MAIN FLOW, THUS HV MADE NO CHGS TO EXTNDD
FOR THIS REASON.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND PERSISTS THROUGH LATE WEEK. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME OF WHICH MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE DEPENDING ON HOW UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS IS AT THE
TIME OF FROPA. THIS FAR OUT, MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THEREFORE THERE STILL
REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT REST OF PERIOD
LOOKS DRY AND COOL WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE VCNTY. HIGH TEMPS WED
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ELM. MAY
SEE MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z AT TERMINAL THOUGH POTENTIAL
REMAINS VERY MARGINAL WITH BKN MID-DECK OVER THE CENTRAL NY
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER CHANCES
TODAY AND WILL WITHHOLD FROM ANY TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL THEY CAN
ACTUALLY DEVELOP.
WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND/OR LGT/VRB WILL INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 5-8 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY MID-MORNING, DIMINISHING
LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUN THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED...PRIMARILY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
248 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING ANOTHER NICE
DAY TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW WARMER AND
MOREE HUMID AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION TODAY. MDL PROFILES
DISPLAY ALOT OF VARIABILTY THIS AFTN W/RESPECT TO POTNL FOR AFTN
CONVECTION. 00Z BUF PROFILE SHOWS A GOOD CAP AT 700 MB WHICH WOULD
TEND TO INHIBIT ACTIVITY. LOW LVL MSTR APPEARS OVERDONE IN THE
NAM...WHILE THE RUC MAY BE DISPLAYING A DRY BIAS W/RESPECT TO LOW
LVL TD/S. GFS PROFILES APPEAR TO BE MOST REASONABLE AND SUGGEST
THE CAP WILL BE ENUF TO SUPRESS CONVECTION THIS AFTN. IN
ADDN...FCST K`S ARE GNRLY IN THE U20S THIS AFTN. WHILE A STRAY
SHRA CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATE TDA...WE`VE OPTED TO LOWER POPS TO BLO
SLGT CHC. BETTER CHCS FOR CONVECTION WILL COME TWDS DAYBREAK AS
LEADING S/WV AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING GTLAKES UPR LOW APRCHS THE
RGN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
XPCT SHRA/TSRA TO OVERSPREAD THE RGN SUN MRNG...THEN WORK THRU
DURING THE DAY. CAPES GNRLY IN THE 500-1000 RNG...WITH RATHER
IMPRSV WIND FIELDS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A LOW END SVR THREAT FOR
MUCH OF THE RGN. AFTER THIS 1ST WAVE WORKS THRU...SOME DIFFS DVLP
IN THE GUIDANCE W/RESPECT TO TIMING AND DVLPMT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPR TROF AXIS. XPCT ANOTHER PUSH OF MSTR NWD AS NXT WAVE APRCHS. WE
KEPT HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PDS. THE FINGER LAKES...WRN
MOHAWK VLY AND SRN TUG COULD SEE A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MON BEFORE
THE NXT WAVES MOVS IN...SO ONLY INDICATE CHC POPS THERE WITH
HIGHER POPS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND PERSISTS THROUGH LATE WEEK. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME OF WHICH MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE DEPENDING ON HOW UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS IS AT THE
TIME OF FROPA. THIS FAR OUT, MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THEREFORE THERE STILL
REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT REST OF PERIOD
LOOKS DRY AND COOL WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE VCNTY. HIGH TEMPS WED
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ELM. MAY
SEE MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z AT TERMINAL THOUGH POTENTIAL
REMAINS VERY MARGINAL WITH BKN MID-DECK OVER THE CENTRAL NY
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER CHANCES
TODAY AND WILL WITHHOLD FROM ANY TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL THEY CAN
ACTUALLY DEVELOP.
WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND/OR LGT/VRB WILL INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 5-8 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY MID-MORNING, DIMINISHING
LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUN THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED...PRIMARILY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
938 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. DID EXTEND CLOUD
COVER BACK WEST JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. DID KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AS THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES BRUSHING THIS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY AT THIS
TIME REMAINS NORTH OF BRANDON MANITOBA INTO FAR NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. MOISTURE AROUND AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
WESTERN ONTARIO IS PUSHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CEILINGS FROM MINOT AND JAMESTOWN NORTH TO
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL HAVE
NOT MATERIALIZED AND WILL DROP OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. DID KEEP A
SMALL CHANCE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS BETTER MOISTURE
WRAPS INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. BASED ON 18 UTC NAM/GFS 925 AND 850 MB
MOISTURE PROFILES...BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
ABNORMALLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FOR
MONDAY.
AS OF 20 UTC...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS
FAR WESTERN ONTARIO...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT
WILL BE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PRIMARILY EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PERHAPS BRUSHING THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH NAEFS/GEFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TO AVOID THE BUILT IN
CLIMATOLOGY OF THE STATISTICAL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. JAMESTOWN HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SETTING A RECORD LOW HIGH
TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY. SHOWN BELOW IS A FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE TABLE FOR MONDAY JULY 14.
LOCATION........FORECAST.......RECORD
BISMARCK.........67............57 1884
MINOT............66............62 1958
JAMESTOWN........66............68 1937
DICKINSON........68............60 1958
WILLISTON........69............63 1912
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
THERE IS GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THAT THE DEEP CYCLONE OVER
ONTARIO WILL LIFT OUT WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW RIDGING TO REPLACE CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. AFTER THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON
MONDAY...A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL/GFS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES ALSO
ADVERTISE A SHIFT FROM THE SEMI-PERMANENT NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
ONTARIO UPPER LOWS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CONUS AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD DIRECT A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS LARGE UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF EACH SHORTWAVE...BUT CONSENSUS ON THE STRENGTH
AND POSITION OF THE BROAD LOW DIRECTING THOSE SHORTWAVES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
AS A RESULT OF THAT CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJMS AND POSSIBLY KMOT AROUND 12
UTC MONDAY AS BETTER MOISTURE SURGES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
THE NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CEILINGS HERE LOW VFR FOR
NOW AND CAN ADJUST IF NEEDED WITH LATER UPDATES. VFR CEILINGS
ALREADY AT KMOT AND KJMS. BROUGHT VFR CEILINGS INTO KISN AND KBIS
AROUND 06 UTC...AND KDIK AROUND 10 UTC. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
NOT AS HIGH AS SUNDAY...MORE LIKE 15-20 KNOTS EAST TO 10-15 KNOTS
WEST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
101 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO REDUCE POPS TO SLIGHT CHC ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST HRRR AND 12Z WRF SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE EXPANDED THIS AREA FARTHER NORTH FROM PREVIOUS THOUGHTS. IN
ADDITION...IN COLLABORATING WITH GRAND FORKS...THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE COUNTIES
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTION NOW
OCCURRING FROM YORKTON SASKATCHEWAN INTO BRANDON MANITOBA. UPDATES
OUT SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
LATEST LOCAL RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS EXITING DICKEY COUNTY AS
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND HRRR PRECIPITATION
FORECAST SHOWS SURFACE HEATING TODAY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WILL
MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED THREAT THROUGH 00Z. FARTHER NORTH...SURFACE
COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA WITH 3HR PRESSURE FALLS
CROSSING THE NORTHERN BORDER. POWERFUL JET 100KT JET STREAM WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. BEST JET
DYNAMICS RESIDES EAST OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER FORECAST
0-6KM SHEAR STILL VERY IMPRESSIVE AT AROUND 65KT. CAPE/INSTABILITY
REMAINS MEAGER...BUT THE SHEAR MAY OVERCOME THIS AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HRRR ADVERTISES A FEW CELLS OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 22Z
AND 02Z...BUT HIGHEST REFLECTIVITY`S REMAIN EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 816 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO
SHOW UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH RESULTANT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN SHOWERS WERE BECOMING MORE
ISOLATED IN EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 110KT JET STREAK/DIVERGENCE ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A FRONT
OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE FARTHER
EAST AND SOUTH THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY LATE MORNING. AN ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 18Z...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH 18Z THEN BEGIN TO TAPER POPS OFF.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING.
WILL MONITOR THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL/TURTLE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. WILL AWAIT THE 12Z DATA...BUT IT
APPEARS THE BEST JET DYNAMICS JUST GRAZES THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS/PRECIPITATION AREA BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE OBS.
OVERALL GRIDDED FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
MAIN CHANGES ARE TO ADJUST POPS TOWARDS CURRENT TRENDS FOR THE
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND TO
ACCOUNT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TRYING TO PUSH INTO WEST-
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT COVERAGE WITH BOTH OF THESE TO
DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK COUPLED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BACK EAST TO ALONG THE ND/SD
BORDER...RESULTS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM EAST-CENTRAL MONTANA...OVER SOUTHWEST/FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...AND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MY SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY
EXPAND INTO MY SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES NOW THROUGH 15Z AS THE UPPER
JET STREAK CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION (DIVERGENCE ALOFT) OF THE UPPER JET WILL
SHIFT SOUTH MORE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...AND SO WILL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LATER TODAY...A DEEP CYCLONE WEST OF HUDSON BAY WILL SEND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 18Z TODAY AND INTO
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MID/LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT SOME LOW POPS AROUND THIS
FAVORED AREA AS WELL. MODELS STILL ADVERTISE IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM
SHEAR...60KT TO 70KT...ACROSS MY NORTHEAST CORNER. WHILE CAPE
REMAINS WEAK RANGING BETWEEN 200 AND 600 J/KG...MY NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LATE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS INTO THE
EVENING AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
ON SUNDAY...DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER WRN ONTARIO CONTINUES ITS
SOUTHERLY PROGRESSION TOWARDS NRN MINNESOTA. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT HOW THEY HAVE HANDLED THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH GFS CONTINUES
TO TAKE A SLIGHTLY EASTERLY TRACK. COOLER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW AVERAGE.
PRIMARY PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL COME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 60S...ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER MANY LOCATIONS.
LOW CONTINUES ITS SOUTHERLY DIVE BEFORE IT STARTS TO TAKE AN
EASTERLY TRACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING
ON MONDAY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ACTIVE CYCLONIC
FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF LOW.
BY TUESDAY...REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
AFOREMENTIONED LOW SCOOTING OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A BIT MILDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REBOUND THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY MODELS
SUGGESTING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING...BRINGING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO VARIOUS LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT 15KT TO 25KT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH FROM MANITOBA. EXPECT
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1149 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
LATEST LOCAL RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS EXITING DICKEY COUNTY AS
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND HRRR PRECIPITATION
FORECAST SHOWS SURFACE HEATING TODAY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WILL
MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED THREAT THROUGH 00Z. FARTHER NORTH...SURFACE
COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA WITH 3HR PRESSURE FALLS
CROSSING THE NORTHERN BORDER. POWERFUL JET 100KT JET STREAM WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. BEST JET
DYNAMICS RESIDES EAST OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER FORECAST
0-6KM SHEAR STILL VERY IMPRESSIVE AT AROUND 65KT. CAPE/INSTABILITY
REMAINS MEAGER...BUT THE SHEAR MAY OVERCOME THIS AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HRRR ADVERTISES A FEW CELLS OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 22Z
AND 02Z...BUT HIGHEST REFLECTIVITY`S REMAIN EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 816 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO
SHOW UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH RESULTANT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN SHOWERS WERE BECOMING MORE
ISOLATED IN EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 110KT JET STREAK/DIVERGENCE ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A FRONT
OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE FARTHER
EAST AND SOUTH THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY LATE MORNING. AN ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 18Z...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH 18Z THEN BEGIN TO TAPER POPS OFF.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING.
WILL MONITOR THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL/TURTLE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. WILL AWAIT THE 12Z DATA...BUT IT
APPEARS THE BEST JET DYNAMICS JUST GRAZES THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS/PRECIPITATION AREA BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE OBS.
OVERALL GRIDDED FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
MAIN CHANGES ARE TO ADJUST POPS TOWARDS CURRENT TRENDS FOR THE
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND TO
ACCOUNT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TRYING TO PUSH INTO WEST-
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT COVERAGE WITH BOTH OF THESE TO
DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK COUPLED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BACK EAST TO ALONG THE ND/SD
BORDER...RESULTS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM EAST-CENTRAL MONTANA...OVER SOUTHWEST/FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...AND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MY SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY
EXPAND INTO MY SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES NOW THROUGH 15Z AS THE UPPER
JET STREAK CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION (DIVERGENCE ALOFT) OF THE UPPER JET WILL
SHIFT SOUTH MORE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...AND SO WILL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LATER TODAY...A DEEP CYCLONE WEST OF HUDSON BAY WILL SEND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 18Z TODAY AND INTO
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MID/LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT SOME LOW POPS AROUND THIS
FAVORED AREA AS WELL. MODELS STILL ADVERTISE IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM
SHEAR...60KT TO 70KT...ACROSS MY NORTHEAST CORNER. WHILE CAPE
REMAINS WEAK RANGING BETWEEN 200 AND 600 J/KG...MY NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LATE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS INTO THE
EVENING AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
ON SUNDAY...DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER WRN ONTARIO CONTINUES ITS
SOUTHERLY PROGRESSION TOWARDS NRN MINNESOTA. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT HOW THEY HAVE HANDLED THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH GFS CONTINUES
TO TAKE A SLIGHTLY EASTERLY TRACK. COOLER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW AVERAGE.
PRIMARY PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL COME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 60S...ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER MANY LOCATIONS.
LOW CONTINUES ITS SOUTHERLY DIVE BEFORE IT STARTS TO TAKE AN
EASTERLY TRACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING
ON MONDAY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ACTIVE CYCLONIC
FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF LOW.
BY TUESDAY...REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
AFOREMENTIONED LOW SCOOTING OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A BIT MILDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REBOUND THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY MODELS
SUGGESTING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING...BRINGING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO VARIOUS LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT 15KT TO 25KT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH FROM MANITOBA. EXPECT
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1012 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT...AND MOVES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. QUITE COOL MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. IN
GENERAL...CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED...BUT STILL SCATTERED DOWNPOURS
DRIFTING EAST ACROSS CWA...WITH MORE INCOMING FROM THE WEST. SO FAR
STREAMS HAVE NOT RISEN MUCH FROM RAIN ACROSS SE OH AND NC WV.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS FIRED ALONG A LINE OF CONVERGENCE FROM NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH SOUTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS IS
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH AND LOSING
SPEED INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE CLEARLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A
30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND A BULK SHEAR 0-6KM MAX THROUGH THE
WATCH AREA AT 40KTS. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
WITH INCREASING LAPSE RATES THANKS TO DEWPOINT INCREASES AND
HEATING RESPECTIVELY.
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE BULK OF THE LOWLANDS AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES...MAYBE A TOUCH HIGH ON THE BIASED NAM...BUT HIGH
NONETHELESS...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BE
IGNORED. THE CULPRIT FOR THIS TONIGHT WILL BE A SURFACE WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT. WE ARE INCLUDED FOR THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...SEE
THE NAM DEPICTING POCKETS OF THETA E CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT. TRAINING PRECIPITATION OR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
STORMS WILL BE THE KEY FOR ANY ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS. NO
WATCH HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST 2-3
WEEKS. LOTS OF ROOM IN THE GROUND AND CREEKS AND RIVERS FOR
RAINFALL. BUT RAINFALL RATES MAY TRUMP THAT AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WILL DRIVE
A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH THE FRONT EXITING THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...AND ENDING THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. WE LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING
THE FRONT...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING TUESDAY. EXPECT ONLY
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE AID
OF UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THESE WILL END LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS MUCH DRIER AND
MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR FLOWS INTO THE REGION...COMPLIMENTS OF
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
THEREAFTER...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE 80S WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITIES BY FRIDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK. THUS...THERE
WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...ALL DEPENDS ON A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT
THE MODELS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH NO SURFACE
REFLECTION. THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE LOW LANDS. IN ANY CASE...IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MESSY AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME WITH SLOWLY MOVING FRONT
SINKING IN AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. TRIED TO TIME
LOWER CATS IN CONVECTION BASED ON HRRR AND 18Z NAM...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMING AS THINGS PROGRESS AND EVOLVE.
ANTICIPATE AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT.
EXPECT SOME FOG IN AREAS WITH RAIN THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME FLOW REMAINS AS WELL...SO ONLY WENT DOWN TO
2 MILES AT PKB/CKB/EKN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 07/14/14
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M L L L L H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L L L L H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H L H M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN POST-RAIN FOG AND STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...MZ/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
747 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT...AND MOVES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. QUITE COOL MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED POPS BASED ON HRRR AND 18Z NAM TRYING TO
CAPTURE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HIGHER POPS WITH WAVES MOVING ALONG
SLOW MOVING FRONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE WATCH IN PLACE OVER THE BULK OF SOUTHEAST OHIO WITH A
FEW COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. CONVECTION HAS FIRED
ALONG A LINE OF CONVERGENCE FROM NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH AND LOSING SPEED INTO THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE CLEARLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A
30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND A BULK SHEAR 0-6KM MAX THROUGH THE
WATCH AREA AT 40KTS. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
WITH INCREASING LAPSE RATES THANKS TO DEWPOINT INCREASES AND
HEATING RESPECTIVELY.
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE BULK OF THE LOWLANDS AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES...MAYBE A TOUCH HIGH ON THE BIASED NAM...BUT HIGH
NONETHELESS...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BE
IGNORED. THE CULPRIT FOR THIS TONIGHT WILL BE A SURFACE WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT. WE ARE INCLUDED FOR THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...SEE
THE NAM DEPICTING POCKETS OF THETA E CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT. TRAINING PRECIPITATION OR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
STORMS WILL BE THE KEY FOR ANY ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS. NO
WATCH HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST 2-3
WEEKS. LOTS OF ROOM IN THE GROUND AND CREEKS AND RIVERS FOR
RAINFALL. BUT RAINFALL RATES MAY TRUMP THAT AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WILL DRIVE
A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH THE FRONT EXITING THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...AND ENDING THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. WE LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING
THE FRONT...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING TUESDAY. EXPECT ONLY
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE AID
OF UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THESE WILL END LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS MUCH DRIER AND
MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR FLOWS INTO THE REGION...COMPLIMENTS OF
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
THEREAFTER...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE 80S WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITIES BY FRIDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK. THUS...THERE
WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...ALL DEPENDS ON A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT
THE MODELS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH NO SURFACE
REFLECTION. THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE LOW LANDS. IN ANY CASE...IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MESSY AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME WITH SLOWLY MOVING FRONT
SINKING IN AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. TRIED TO TIME
LOWER CATS IN CONVECTION BASED ON HRRR AND 18Z NAM...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMING AS THINGS PROGRESS AND EVOLVE.
ANTICIPATE AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT.
EXPECT SOME FOG IN AREAS WITH RAIN THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME FLOW REMAINS AS WELL...SO ONLY WENT DOWN TO
2 MILES AT PKB/CKB/EKN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN POST-RAIN FOG AND STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...MZ/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
540 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
ARRIVE FROM MID TO LATE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS 530 PM...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE. SCT
CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS HAS TRENDED WEAKER OVER THE PAST HOUR...BUT
COVERAGE HAS REMAINED NEARLY UNCHANGED. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO ALIGN SKY WITH SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND TO TWEAK TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...CHANGES TO FORECAST WILL BE MINOR.
AT 245 PM EDT SATURDAY... CURRENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES CAPES OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ARE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. RAP FORECAST INTO THE EVENING SHOWS CAPE
PERSISTS FOR A WHILE IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES... ALIGNED WITH THE
AXIS OF HIGH TERRAIN... BUT CAPE DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE
EAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE STORMS MIGHT CONTINUE WELL AFTER SUNSET. VERY
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER COULD RESULT IN SLOWLY MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE... PRIMARY FEATURE ALOFT AFFECTING OUR WEATHER THROUGH
SUNDAY IS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WEST COAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES TO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE WITH A VERY
WEAK GRADIENT WILL COVER THE REGION. AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. ON SUNDAY... THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL WITHDRAW WESTWARD A BIT... BUT THROUGH TOMORROW THE RIDGE
IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY PLAYER IN CONTINUING THE CURRENT PERIOD
OF GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE THUS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CAPE VALUES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE HELD AT BAY BY A RATHER WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILE. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE... BUT CUMULUS AND TOWERING
CUMULUS SHOULD DOMINATE THE SKY IN OUR PIEDMONT ZONES TOMORROW. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 70 IN THE PIEDMONT AND IN THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL... PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT A FEW LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD INITIALIZES
SUNDAY EVENING WITH A BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ROTATING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
WARM/MOIST AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECTING ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN AT FORECAST INITIALIZATION DUE TO IMPROVED INSTABILITY AXIS
AND WEAK SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. CHANCE LEVEL POPS WILL BE
FEATURED INITIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN BEFORE TAPERING DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS BY DAYBREAK. BY MONDAY MORNING...THE
FIRST...AND WEAKER OF TWO COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ADJACENT WEAK UPPER IMPULSE COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY INTRUSION WILL SPAWN CONVECTION ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. DUE TO
THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN DAYS PAST...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH TO YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. THUS...EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPILL OUT
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS
MONDAY EVENING. AS SAID ABOVE...SUBSTANTIAL CAPE WILL BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT SOME DEEPER UPDRAFTS LEADING TO A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...DESPITE WEAKER YET
IMPROVING SHEAR. FORECAST WILL FEATURE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOUNTAIN/FOOTHILLS ZONES WHILE LOWER CHANCE POPS ARE
HIGHLIGHTED SOUTH EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE NC/SC
PIEDMONTS.
TUESDAY MORNING THE ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL HAVE ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATED AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL NC...SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MIDLANDS OF SC. AT THE SAME TIME THE RATHER
DEEP/IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY
MORNING...EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS BY MID/LATE
MORNING...THEN FINALLY FURTHER EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT REGIONS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE
CYCLONE TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AND AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE
TROF ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAINS OF NC LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WEAK/DIFFUSE BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING/STRONG COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT UPPER SUPPORT...SHEAR...AND BUOYANCY IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD
LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WORDING IN THE HWO FOR
BOTH MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILS AMONGST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
COMBINE WITH PRECIPITATION TO KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO
THE EAST ALLOWING FOR POPS TO TREND DOWN...ALONG WITH TEMPS. LOWS
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
LOWER TERRAIN WHERE THE FROPA OCCURS LATER...WHILE THE HIGH TERRAIN
WILL SEE LOWS ON THE ORDER OF 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SAT...A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS ON WED AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES. DEEP LAYER DRYING IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING/STALLING COLD
FRONT...WITH MAINLY NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OVER FROM THE N...AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD DIP TO TWO
CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL BY WED AFTN. AS THE WEAK HIGH SETTLES INTO
PLACE TO OUR N...LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COULD DEVELOP INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS BY THU. IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE PROFILES...BUT SLIGHTLY IMPROVED BL RH COULD HELP
TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE MTNS.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THU
AFTN...POSSIBLY MORE IF WE CLOUD UP QUICKER.
THOUGH SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST BY LATE WEEK...THERE IS
REASONABLE CONSENSUS REGARDING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE BROAD TROUGH ON THU...AND THEN MOVING TO THE
BASE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY FRI. THIS MAY BRING A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION...INTERACTING
WITH THE WEAK SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING SOME
DEGREE OF COLD AIR DAMMING FRI INTO SAT. WILL KEEP MAXES WELL BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MAINLY CHC POPS...HIGHEST NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT... SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU AND TCU 4-6K WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. VISIBILITY
UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT 5 MILES IN HAZE NEAR SUNRISE. BY MID TO LATE
MORNING SUNDAY... SCATTERED CU 4-6K FT WILL DEVELOP AND VISIBILITY
WILL BECOME UNRESTRICTED. SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHEAST
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU AND TCU 4-6K WILL PTHROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. MODEL PROFILES
INDICATE VERY LITTLE CAPE AVAILABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS EXCEPT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST UNTIL MIDNIGHT. CONVECTIVE
STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS NORTH AND WEST OF KAVL... SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN TAF UNLESS OCCURRENCE BECOMES MORE LIKELY. VALLEY FOG
LIKELY TO BEGIN FORMING AFTER 06Z WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIFR AT KAVL.
VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO BECOME UNRESTRICTED AT KAVL BY 14Z.
OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. UNLIMITED CEILING AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY WILL RETURN
ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 81%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 81%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 87% HIGH 88% MED 75%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 81%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 81%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 87% HIGH 81%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...LGL/NED
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...LGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
ARRIVE FROM MID TO LATE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 245 PM EDT SATURDAY... CURRENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES CAPES OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ARE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. RAP FORECAST INTO THE EVENING SHOWS CAPE
PERSISTS FOR A WHILE IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES... ALIGNED WITH THE
AXIS OF HIGH TERRAIN... BUT CAPE DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE
EAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE STORMS MIGHT CONTINUE WELL AFTER SUNSET. VERY
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER COULD RESULT IN SLOWLY MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE... PRIMARY FEATURE ALOFT AFFECTING OUR WEATHER THROUGH
SUNDAY IS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WEST COAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES TO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE WITH A VERY
WEAK GRADIENT WILL COVER THE REGION. AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. ON SUNDAY... THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL WITHDRAW WESTWARD A BIT... BUT THROUGH TOMORROW THE RIDGE
IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY PLAYER IN CONTINUING THE CURRENT PERIOD
OF GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE THUS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CAPE VALUES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE HELD AT BAY BY A RATHER WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILE. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE... BUT CUMULUS AND TOWERING
CUMULUS SHOULD DOMINATE THE SKY IN OUR PIEDMONT ZONES TOMORROW. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 70 IN THE PIEDMONT AND IN THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL... PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT A FEW LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD INITIALIZES
SUNDAY EVENING WITH A BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ROTATING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
WARM/MOIST AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECTING ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN AT FORECAST INITIALIZATION DUE TO IMPROVED INSTABILITY AXIS
AND WEAK SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. CHANCE LEVEL POPS WILL BE
FEATURED INITIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN BEFORE TAPERING DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS BY DAYBREAK. BY MONDAY MORNING...THE
FIRST...AND WEAKER OF TWO COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ADJACENT WEAK UPPER IMPULSE COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY INTRUSION WILL SPAWN CONVECTION ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. DUE TO
THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN DAYS PAST...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH TO YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. THUS...EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPILL OUT
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS
MONDAY EVENING. AS SAID ABOVE...SUBSTANTIAL CAPE WILL BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT SOME DEEPER UPDRAFTS LEADING TO A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...DESPITE WEAKER YET
IMPROVING SHEAR. FORECAST WILL FEATURE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOUNTAIN/FOOTHILLS ZONES WHILE LOWER CHANCE POPS ARE
HIGHLIGHTED SOUTH EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE NC/SC
PIEDMONTS.
TUESDAY MORNING THE ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL HAVE ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATED AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL NC...SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MIDLANDS OF SC. AT THE SAME TIME THE RATHER
DEEP/IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY
MORNING...EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS BY MID/LATE
MORNING...THEN FINALLY FURTHER EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT REGIONS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE
CYCLONE TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AND AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE
TROF ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAINS OF NC LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WEAK/DIFFUSE BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING/STRONG COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT UPPER SUPPORT...SHEAR...AND BUOYANCY IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD
LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WORDING IN THE HWO FOR
BOTH MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILS AMONGST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
COMBINE WITH PRECIPITATION TO KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO
THE EAST ALLOWING FOR POPS TO TREND DOWN...ALONG WITH TEMPS. LOWS
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
LOWER TERRAIN WHERE THE FROPA OCCURS LATER...WHILE THE HIGH TERRAIN
WILL SEE LOWS ON THE ORDER OF 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SAT...A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS ON WED AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES. DEEP LAYER DRYING IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING/STALLING COLD
FRONT...WITH MAINLY NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OVER FROM THE N...AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD DIP TO TWO
CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL BY WED AFTN. AS THE WEAK HIGH SETTLES INTO
PLACE TO OUR N...LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COULD DEVELOP INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS BY THU. IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE PROFILES...BUT SLIGHTLY IMPROVED BL RH COULD HELP
TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE MTNS.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THU
AFTN...POSSIBLY MORE IF WE CLOUD UP QUICKER.
THOUGH SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST BY LATE WEEK...THERE IS
REASONABLE CONSENSUS REGARDING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE BROAD TROUGH ON THU...AND THEN MOVING TO THE
BASE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY FRI. THIS MAY BRING A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION...INTERACTING
WITH THE WEAK SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING SOME
DEGREE OF COLD AIR DAMMING FRI INTO SAT. WILL KEEP MAXES WELL BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MAINLY CHC POPS...HIGHEST NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT... SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU AND TCU 4-6K WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. VISIBILITY
UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT 5 MILES IN HAZE NEAR SUNRISE. BY MID TO LATE
MORNING SUNDAY... SCATTERED CU 4-6K FT WILL DEVELOP AND VISIBILITY
WILL BECOME UNRESTRICTED. SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHEAST
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU AND TCU 4-6K WILL PTHROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. MODEL PROFILES
INDICATE VERY LITTLE CAPE AVAILABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS EXCEPT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST UNTIL MIDNIGHT. CONVECTIVE
STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS NORTH AND WEST OF KAVL... SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN TAF UNLESS OCCURRENCE BECOMES MORE LIKELY. VALLEY FOG
LIKELY TO BEGIN FORMING AFTER 06Z WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIFR AT KAVL.
VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO BECOME UNRESTRICTED AT KAVL BY 14Z.
OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. UNLIMITED CEILING AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY WILL RETURN
ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-19Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83%
KAVL HIGH 92% HIGH 91% MED 73% MED 74%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 83%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 88% HIGH 80%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...LGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1046 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.UPDATE...
AT 03Z...THE MID STATE WAS FAIR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. DAY SHIFT FORECAST
AGAIN WAS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH OBSERVATIONS SO DID NOT FEEL NEED TO
DO MUCH IN THE WAY OF GRID EDITING.
REGARDING TOMORROWS STORM SEVERITY AND TIMING...SEEMS TO BE QUITE
A BIT OF VARIATION IN HOW TO HANDLE THE INITIAL WEAKER FRONT
PASSAGE TOMORROW MORNING. THE RUC13 MODEL WOULD INDICATE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH THE NAM/GFS
SIDING FOR MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ORIENTED ALONG THE FRONT AND THE
THIN SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WITH DIURNAL
HEATING NOT YET A PLAYER BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z WHEN THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO ARRIVE...TEND TO AGREE WITH THE A MORE FRONT CENTRIC
COVERAGE PATTERN. BASED OFF THE CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...WOULD THINK THAT HYPOTHESIS WOULD HOLD WATER.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN KY TO
SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND REACH THE TN/KY
BORDER BY AROUND 12Z. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...MAYBE UP TO THE 40 MPH
RANGE...BUT DO NOT THINK AT THIS TIME THOSE STORMS WOULD WARRANT
SEVERE CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES...HEAVY DOWNPOURS APPEAR LIKELY.
NOW...A SECOND...MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID
STATE LATE IN THE EVENING TOMORROW AND IT IS WHERE THE FOCUS IS
FOR SEVERE POSSIBILITY. WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS PROGGING THE
FRONT TO ENTER THE NW COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT TOMORROW
NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE TIMEFRAME IN WHICH STORM SEVERITY APPEARS
TO BE AT ITS HIGHEST. ALTHOUGH...WITH THE FORCING ARRIVING AFTER
WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS VERY MOIST ALL THE
WAY UP THE COLUMN...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS A BIT IN
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOESNT DESTABILIZE AS
ADVERTISED DUE TO THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONSEQUENT
RAINFALL. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT MAIN CONCERN IS VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALIZED
AREAS. THE SECONDARY THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH HAIL BEING A RATHER
LOW RISK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...EXACT INITIATING TIMING SHWRS/TSTMS & IMPACTS TAF SITES/
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. SEVERAL TAF ADMS POSSIBLE 14/16Z-14/24Z. 14/00Z-
14/14Z...VFR WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN CI...EXPECT FOR TEMPO MVFR FOG VSBYS
CSV 14/09Z-14/13Z PER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING EFFECTS. PER APPROACHING
SFC FRONTS...ONE OF WHICH MIGHT WASH OUT ACROSS MID STATE AFTER 14/18Z
PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM...AND A MORE ROBUST SFC FRONT APPROACHING
MID STATE BY 00Z...WITH HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES PER AMBLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POTENTIAL...DIURNAL INSTABILITY...AND LIFT PROVIDED BY DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...ALL POINTING
TO EVOLUTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MID STATE 14/16Z-14/24Z. HAVE ADDRESSED
WITH A PROGRESSION FORECAST FROM VFR VCTS REMARKS TO MVFR VSBYS VFR/MVFR
CEILINGS SHWRS/TSTMS MAINLY 14/20Z-14/24Z WITH TEMPO HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 137 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...WARM, UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A SLOW-
MOVING COLD FRONT COMING TOGETHER NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
SCATTERED CELLS ARE DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU, AND ALSO TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. POP`S WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY TOMORROW AS THE FRONT
EDGES INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE SPC HAS KEPT US UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AND THIS IS
POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING ONLY MODEST
INSTABILITY SETTING UP TOMORROW WITH NO PRONOUNCED DRY LAYERS. SO
THIS EVENT, GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT, MAY MORPH
INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN SYSTEM. THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
COINCIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM (AND THE WARM FRONT COMING THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND) ARE WITHIN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LY FAVORED RANGE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FOR THE NEXT 240 HOURS, SO LOOK FOR A
SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE AFTER MONDAY NIGHT`S FROPA.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
TB12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
326 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...95 PERCENT OF THE FORECAST WILL SEE NOTHING FROM
THESE...BUT AS THEY ARE DEVELOPING ON RADAR HAVE ADDED PRE-FIRST
PERIOD ISOLATED STORMS TO THE GRIDS. HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOWED THESE
STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND 20Z...AND THEY DID...MAYBE I SHOULD
"LISTEN" TO THESE NEW HI-RES MODELS AFTER ALL...THOUGHT THE
DRY AIR ALOFT WITH THE RIDGING AND THE CAPPING SEEN ON THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ABOVE 700MB WOULD KEEP STORMS FROM
OCCURRING...BUT NOT TODAY AS I GUESS IT WAS OVERCOME WITH THE CAPES
PUSHING 3.5 TO 4.5K J/KG. PRECIP ENDS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE WITH CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MODELS STILL SHOWING THE WARMER TEMPS FOR TOMORROW WITH DEWPTS
AROUND THE LOWER 70S...PUSHING APPARENT TEMPS INTO THE 100-104
RANGE...OR JUST BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOTTEST DAY OF
THE YEAR POSSIBLY AND SHOULD BE DRY. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE AS WE
MOVE INTO MONDAY...EARLY DURING THE DAY THE DEEP TROUGH WILL START
TO PUSH SOUTH DIGGING INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH PRECIP POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...SOME CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALL DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND IF ATMOSPHERE GETS WORKED OVER SOME OR NOT ABLE TO
FULLY DESTABILIZE TO CREATE VERY STRONG STORMS...SOMETHING TO
WATCH. CAPES EXCEED 2 TO 3K J/KG AND MODEST SHEAR...NOTHING OVERLY
EXCITING...BUT POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE. DEEP TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND DRIVES THE COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
MS BY MID AFTN TUESDAY...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP EXISTS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA.
DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AND THE BOUNDARY SAGS. NOT THINKING MUCH CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
ON TUESDAY...BUT SOME MODELS DO SHOW DECENT CAPE STILL IN
PLACE...BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS ALMOST NIL WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN QUEBEC.
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
MODELS SHOW DRYING ON WEDNESDAY WITH DECENT NORTHERLY FLOW PUSHING
MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION...HIGHS NEAR 80 TO THE LOWER
80S...NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL AND LIKELY DRY CONDITIONS.
MODELS DIVERGE SOME AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...SOME STARTING TO
SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND CREATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE LOW POPS IN
AS LITTLE CONSISTENCY SEEN THE LAST TWO DAYS WITH HOW THIS WILL
PLAY OUT WITH THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS BREAKING
DOWN. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS THE REGION WET FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND THE EURO ALSO THIS AFTN...AND THAT MAYBE THE LIKELY
TREND TOWARDS A WET FORECAST FOR THOSE DAYS. -ABS
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE (12/18Z-13/18Z)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT KTUP AND KMKL
13/08Z-13/12Z. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SW 4-7 KTS EXCEPT VRBL 4 KTS AT
KTUP. WINDS TONIGHT S-SW 4 KTS OR LESS. WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SW
4-10 KTS.
JCL
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
407 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 12-18Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON
THE HIGHEST QPF PLACEMENT BEING OVER SOUTHERN WI. THE LATEST WPC QPF
DAY 1 GRAPHIC REFLECTS THIS WELL.
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HELPED TO KEEP THE SURFACE
FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH...AND THUS THE TORNADO CHANCE IS MINIMAL FOR
US. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHERN WI DUE
TO THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THUS SEVERE
HAIL IS NO LONGER LIKELY. THE ONLY THING LEFT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
IS STORM ORGANIZATION DUE TO BULK SHEAR OF 50 KNOTS AND MODERATE LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO ALLOW FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.
THE 850MB FRONT HAS CREPT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON PER
THE RAP MODEL ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
PRECIP TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON IS
COINCIDENT WITH 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION...DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION...AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET. THE NARROW TONGUE OF 500-1000 J/KG CAPE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WI IS NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...SO ANY OF
THE STRONGER LOOKING SHOWERS ON RADAR DO NOT LAST LONG. IN
ADDITION...THE MOIST PROFILE AND MINIMAL CAPE IN THE ICE GROWTH
REGION IS INHIBITING CHARGE SEPARATION AND THEREFORE LIGHTNING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.9 ARE SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LA CROSSE AREA
HAVE REPORTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITHIN 1.5 HR. THAT AREA OF PRECIP...
A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL... WILL TRANSLATE EAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM 4 PM UNTIL AROUND 11 PM AND AFFECT AREAS
PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. INCLUDING THE DELLS...MADISON AND
MILWAUKEE AREAS AND SOUTH. URBAN AREAS AND CONSTRUCTION AREAS WILL
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.
THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE 850MB THERMAL
BOUNDARY...IN AN AREA OF STRONG 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THAT BOUNDARY WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WE ARE WEIGHING THE SHORT TERM PRECIP FORECAST HEAVILY ON
THE HRRR GIVEN ITS GOOD PERFORMANCE SO FAR TODAY. IT CONTINUES TO
SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO SOUTHERN WI...COINCIDENT WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE... 700MB OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS. THE WRF MODELS SHOW
THIS AS WELL...BUT NOT THE RAP.
GIVEN THE SHORT NATURE OF THE EVENING HEAVY RAIN EVENT... WE ARE
STILL NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHERN WI MISSED OUT ON THE EARLY MORNING RAIN THAT HIT THE
CHICAGO AREA SO WE ARE NOT PRE-CONDITIONED FOR FLASH FLOODING. THERE
IS DEFINITELY AN URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING CONCERN...AND WE PLAN TO
HANDLE THE RAIN WITH AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. OF COURSE...THAT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI ON SUNDAY...REACHING
SOUTHERN WI BY MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS...OPTED TO
MENTION A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM ALONG
THIS FRONT. IF IT HAPPENS...IT WILL BE A NARROW LINE. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL HANG AROUND UNTIL THE COLD FRONT DROPS
IN...SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 80 WITH SOME SUNSHINE.
.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS 250MB 100 KT
JET DIVES INTO...AND AROUND...THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. LIGHT SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOKING FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AS MAIN SHOT OF COOLER AIR STILL TO ARRIVE.
MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
TROUGH BECOMES ELONGATED WITH A DOUBLE-BARREL STRUCTURE AS THE JET
STRENGTHENS ON THE EASTERN FLANK MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR
SHOWERS WITH CVA AS STRONG VORT IN SW CIRCULATION CENTER SWEEPS DOWN
THROUGH THE STATE. NAM SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH 150-
170 J/KG OF CAPE AND MOIST LAYER REACHING WELL ABOVE -10C...BUT GFS
SHOWING MUCH LESS CAPE AND SATURATION WELL BELOW -10C SO WILL GO
WITH SHOWERS AND LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW. COLD POOL
SETTLES OVER THE STATE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RESULTANT
CLOUD COVER KEEPING LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FROM FALLING BELOW THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...STILL COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY TO THE NE WITH JET MAX...WITH A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION
PROVIDING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY. COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK
TUESDAY IN NW FLOW...THOUGH 850 AND 925 MB HAVE TEMPERED
SOME...BRINGING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S...OR ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BY TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.
MODELS TRYING TO DEVELOP A POCKET OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK...SHEARED VORT MAX SLIPS THROUGH REGION
BEFORE SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY. WILL LEAVE DRY FOR
NOW.
WARMER AIR BEGINS A SLOW RETURN AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO SATURDAY. GFS IS FASTER WITH RETURN OF MOIST WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF PLAINS TROUGH...BRUSHING FAR WESTERN WI WITH PCPN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ECMWF HOLDING OFF ON ANY PCPN UNTIL SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
MVFR CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN SPREAD INTO
SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THE
RAIN...LIGHT FOG AND MVFR STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLEAR SUNDAY MORNING...THEN VFR CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
SOUTHERN WI MID SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 4 PM AND
11 PM THIS EVENING. THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED. BEST CHANCE FOR THE
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
&&
.MARINE...
AREAS OF FOG EVIDENT VIA WEB CAMS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AROUND
SHEBOYGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO VERY MOIST AIR OVER THE
RELATIVELY COOL WATER OF LAKE MICHIGAN. FOG WILL SCOUR OUT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE LAKE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1212 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.UPDATE...
IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN WI IS
OUR MAIN THREAT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC STILL HAS
SOUTHERN WI IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...BUT THAT IS MAINLY FOR
WIND.
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING IS HELPING TO KEEP THE
SURFACE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE 850MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SNEAK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND THEN DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN IL THIS EVENING AS THE LLJ VEERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHERN WI DUE TO THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THUS SEVERE HAIL IS NO
LONGER LIKELY. THE ONLY THING LEFT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STORM
ORGANIZATION DUE TO INCREASING BULK SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO ALLOW FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 5 PM AND 11 PM. THE AREA WITH GREATEST
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE I-94 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH. INCLUDING
DELLS...MADISON AND MILWAUKEE AREAS AND SOUTH. TWO TO THREE INCHES
COULD FALL WITHIN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. URBAN AREAS AND
CONSTRUCTION AREAS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.
WE ARE WEIGHING THE SHORT TERM PRECIP FORECAST HEAVILY ON THE HRRR
GIVEN ITS GOOD PERFORMANCE SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE HRRR AND NEW 12Z
WRF MODELS HAVE A SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE MAIN BATCH OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING IN SOUTHERN WI THAN THE RAP. THE 12Z NAM DID
NOT CAPTURE THE MORNING PRECIP VERY WELL AND SEEMS LIKE A SOUTHERN
OUTLIER AND LIGHT ON THE QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...SO WILL LEAN AWAY
FROM THIS MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS BOTH
BULLSEYE THE PRECIP MAX OVER SOUTHERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING.
GIVEN THE SHORT NATURE OF THIS EXPECTED EVENING HEAVY RAIN EVENT...
WE ARE STILL NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SOUTHERN
WI MISSED OUT ON THE EARLY MORNING RAIN THAT HIT THE CHICAGO AREA SO
WE ARE NOT PRE-CONDITIONED FOR FLASH FLOODING. THERE IS DEFINITELY
AN URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING CONCERN...AND WE PLAN TO HANDLE THE
RAIN WITH AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY HEADLINE AT THIS
TIME. OF COURSE...THAT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LEADING TO PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING KDLL AND
KMSN. THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS...BUT EXPECT THE
LOWERING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE THE AREA PRIMED FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THERE IS LESS OF A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT WITH STRONG WINDS STILL POSSIBLE. LIKELY MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY
LOWER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - LOW.
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FOCUSED INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS MRNG MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN WI...HOWEVER BETTER CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. SEEING
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND FORCING. HENCE FORCED TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE TO LOW FOR TODAY. LEANING TOWARD MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
IN THE SHORT TERM AS CANADIAN HAVING ISSUES WITH QPF VERIFICATION
OVERNIGHT. DO NOT CARE FOR NAM HANDLING OF UPSTREAM VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE SO WL USE MORE OF A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE BEEN
PRODUCING SCT-BKN STRATUS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN WI...HOWEVER INCREASE
IN STRATUS NOTED ON 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY OVER WESTERN HALF OF CWA
SINCE 05Z. INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY ALSO BE AIDED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AS WELL. HENCE EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS FOR A
TIME THIS MRNG. LOW CLOUDS WL LIKELY THIN LATER THIS MRNG AND
AFTN...BUT BY THEN MORE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM CONVECTION.
HERE ARE THE FACTORS WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT ON...PWAT VALUES LIKELY
TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES BY MID-LATE AFTN AS UPSTREAM DEWPTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER SRN WI. THIS WILL REACH THE 75TH
PERCENTILE AT GRB WITH DVN HISTORICAL PWAT VALUES NEARING TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. HENCE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE. OTHER FACTOR IS THAT ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET TO AFFECT SRN WI
FROM MID-AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE. DURING THIS TIME...VIGOROUS MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER SD/NE BORDER SHOULD BE PASSING ACROSS SRN WI
REGION. HENCE ENUF CONFIDENCE IN THESE FEATURES TO CONTINUE HIGH
MID-RANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AFTN INTO THE EVE. THINKING BEST
THREAT WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF CWA. CONSIDERED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AS THETA-E RIDGE SPREADS ACROSS SRN CWA AROUND 00Z AND 925-850MB
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ALIGNED WITH 850-300MB FLOW FOR A
PERIOD. HOWEVER THESE FACTORS ONLY AFFECTING SRN WI FOR A 3-6 HOUR
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ABOVE 2 INCHES
MOST AREAS AND CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND MOSTLY ABOVE
15KTS. HENCE HELD OFF ON WATCH AND WL MENTION IN HWO POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN. WL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL TRAINING AFFECTING URBAN
AREAS.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
EXPECT NUMEROUS TO CATEGORICAL CONVECTION TO AFFECT SRN WI DURING
THE EVENING AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET BRUSHES THE AREA. BULK
SHEAR INCREASES DURING THE DAY TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS. UNSURE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER BUT CAPE
SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH 1000-2000 J. ABOUT HALF OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS USED IN THE SPC SSEO PAINT OUT AREAS OF STRONG
UPDRAFT HELICITY AND UPDRAFT SPEED DURING THE LATE AFTN WHILE 10M
WIND SPEED NOT AS IMPRESSIVE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS WEAK SO FOCUS
WOULD BE ON HAIL AND WINDS FROM LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE
BIGGEST FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL.
LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS EAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE EVENING AS UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. HENCE EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING IN THE WEST TO THE EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WILL KEEP LINGERING SMALL POPS IN FOR AFTN MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST NW WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER 850
TEMPS. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A DRY SOLUTION WHILE THE GFS
HAS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY. UPPER FLOW IS
BROADLY CYCLONIC WITH ANY VORT...MAINLY THE SHEAR/ELONGATED
VARIETY...ACROSS NORTHERN WI. WITH THE GFS BEING THE ONLY MODEL TO
GENERATE PRECIP WILL GO WI THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND GO WITH THE
DRY LOOK. 850 COLD ADVECTION WILL PICK UP A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER 925 TEMPS STILL IN THE 18-20C RANGE SO HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S LOOK REASONABLE.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MORE PRONOUNCED INTRUSION OF VORTICITY AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DECENT
LAPSE RATES AND SOME CAPE SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA. 850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO TAKE A TUMBLE TO UNDER 10C. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE COLD ADVECTION. 925
TEMPS DROP AS WELL AND SUPPORT COOL FOR JULY HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SLOWER ON
THE PROGRESS AND THE NAM/GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE ECMWF
SHOWS AN 850 TEMP JUST A SMIDGE UNDER 3C AT 12Z ACROSS SC WI. IN
EITHER CASE EXPECT A STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SHRA CHANCES
GOING WITHIN THIS VERY COOL AIRMASS. 925 TEMPS ONLY MODIFY TO
10-13C IN THE AFTN HRS...WHICH TRANSLATES TO HIGHS FOR MOST NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE MID 60S. TAKING A COMPROMISE APPROACH WITH THE
925 TEMPS...WITH A NOD TO THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF SHOWS HIGHS
FOR MOST AREAS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE MID 60S.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW STILL SHOWING A CYCLONIC CURVATURE THOUGH SURFACE HIGH
DRAWS CLOSER AND AIRMASS DRIES OUT. MAY NEED A SMALL CHANCE OR
SPRINKLES ESP IN ERN AND NE CWA AS WE GET CLOSER BUT FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH THE DRY COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FAIRLY BENIGN NW FLOW. CHILLY TEMPS SLOWLY MODIFY. NOT READY TO
BUY INTO THE LIGHT...SPOTTY AND RANDOM NATURE OF QPF BEING THROWN
AROUND BY THE MODELS WITH LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND ANY
WAVES QUITE WEAK. SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY POPS AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...STRATUS LOWERING TO MVFR WEST OF MADISON LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST SO FOR NOW
WL CONTINUE A PERIOD OF LOWER MVFR CIGS RISING TO VFR LATER THIS MRNG.
HIGH HUMIDITY AND DEWPTS RETURNING TODAY HELPING TO FUEL SCT TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION FROM MID-AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING. LIKELY MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LOWER. MOST FAVORABLE
TIMES FOR CONVECTION WL BE LISTED IN TAFS.
MARINE...PATCHY OVERNIGHT CLEARING HAS ALLOWED THE MODIS IMAGER TO
CATCH SOME SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS FROM THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MI. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S...WITH THE COOLEST
READINGS NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHT TO SHEBOYGAN. WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 70 LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TO DEVELOP.
WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING MORE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ATTM DUE TO SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TONIGHT. WILL
MENTION THREAT IN HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1145 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS THROUGH THE
EVENING AS WELL AS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA. A SERIES OF MONSOONAL
SHORTWAVES WERE COMING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH...ONE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND A SECOND IN WYOMING. A
STREAM OF TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WAS ALSO EVIDENT AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A PLUME OF 15-18C 850MB
DEWPOINTS STRETCHED FROM OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA PER 00Z RAOBS. ALL THIS MOISTURE EQUATES TO PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES FROM SIOUX FALLS AREA SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A ZONE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
MONSOONAL SHORTWAVES ACTING ON THIS MOISTURE...ALONG WITH LOW TO MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...HAS LED TO SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS CAUSED THE
MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT TO GET STUCK IN FAR SOUTHERN IOWA.
SOME OF THE GENERALITIES FOR TODAYS FORECAST. THE 2 MONSOONAL
SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HELPING TO PULL THE
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ZONE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER
JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL CANADA UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO ALIGN ITSELF FROM CENTRAL MN THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR...
PLACING SOME IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. INSTABILITY WISE...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY 1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE SEEMS REASONABLE TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
HOVER IN THE MID 70S OR SO. PLENTIFUL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AS
WELL AS NOTED IN THE CURRENT WEATHER DISCUSSION...RUNNING AROUND 2
INCHES. THUS...PLENTY OF MOISTURE EXISTS TO COMBINE WITH DYNAMIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. 0-6KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR
VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION...ON THE
ORDER OF 40-50 KT AND 30-45 KT RESPECTIVELY. MUCH OF THIS SHEAR IS
CONFINED ABOVE 1 KM AS THE WINDS BELOW ARE FAIRLY LIGHT. STILL HAVE
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPH...THOUGH. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WOULD BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS...WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A TORNADO. THE HIGHER SHEAR AND DRYING SOILS AS OF LATE
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP ANY FLOOD CONCERN LOCALIZED...IN AGREEMENT TOO
WITH THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK.
NOW...THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES...
1. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE 2 MONSOONAL SHORTWAVES...WHICH
IMPACTS THE MOVEMENT OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ZONE AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. WHERE THAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSE...F-GEN
ZONE...AND DPVA FROM THE SHORTWAVES WILL MODULATE WHERE THE
CONVECTION ENDS UP. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE BOARD WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES...LEADING TO LOWERED CONFIDENCE.
2. HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN MAKE IT WHICH IMPACTS THE ZONE
OF INSTABILITY AND THUS HOW FAR NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA A
SEVERE RISK EXISTS. ITEM NUMBER 1 ABOVE WILL IMPACT THE WARM FRONT.
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTIES ABOVE...IT STILL APPEARS THROUGH THIS
EVENING LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-90 STAND TO SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERE WEATHER IS GOING TO HAPPEN BETWEEN
I-80 AND I-90 AFTER 2 PM TODAY...CONSISTING OF SUPERCELLS AND BOW
SEGMENTS. PINNING DOWN THE LOCATION ANY FINER THAN THAT IS
PROBLEMATIC AT THIS TIME. LATER FORECAST UPDATES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REFINE THE LOCATION AND TIMING.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE MORNING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO FOLLOW TRENDS
IN THE HRRR...WHILE A MODEL CONSENSUS DOMINATES THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NOTE THAT THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
THAT FIRES OVER WEST CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT. THE AFOREMENTIONED CONSENSUS JUST HAPPENS TO BE
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z NSSL WRF-ARW. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THERE WILL
BE A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DRYING TREND AS THE SHORTWAVES PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST... USHERING IN SUBSIDENCE AND MUCH DRIER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
A GRADUAL DESCENT OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON TRACK BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
THE TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...THERE ARE COUPLE OF ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH...
1. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE MUCH CONVERGENCE ON IT. THE 12.00Z ECMWF/NAM/REGIONAL
CANADIAN/HIRES ARW AND NMM ARE DRY...WHILE THE 12.00Z GFS HAS
REDUCED ITS QPF EVEN MORE. THE GFS STILL HAS TOO HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN WHAT SHOULD BE A FAVORABLE MIXING REGIME...THUS PREFER
THE DRIER IDEA.
2. RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LOW WITHIN THE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN WI MONDAY EVENING. DPVA FORCING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE PLENTY
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY IN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
3. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 850MB TEMP ANOMALIES PLUMMET TO
2 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD...OR
GENERALLY IN THE 4-7C RANGE. THESE READINGS GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME MODEL SUGGESTIONS ON TUESDAY
THAT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST...BOTH THE
850MB TEMP AND ACTUAL HIGH COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER. LOWS WILL BE
HELD UP SOMEWHAT BY BOTH CLOUDS AND A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ITS GOING TO FEEL MORE LIKE FALL VERSUS SUMMER.
AFTER TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT A LONG DRY
PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND 500MB HEIGHTS RISE.
HOWEVER...THE 12.00Z GFS SHOWS DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIDESPREAD LIGHT
PRECIP WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MODEL APPEARS TO BE
SUFFERING FROM OVER-DOING EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...NOTED IN ITS SURFACE
DEWPOINT FIELD...AND THUS CONVECTS EASIER. THUS...HAVE IGNORED IT
AND STAYED WITH THE DRY ECMWF/CANADIAN.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK...GETTING CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2014
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENETIC
LIFT ALL HAVING A PART IN PERSISTENT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF MN LATE
THIS MORNING. THE -SHRA WAS PUSHING EAST...MOSTLY OUT OF MID
LEVEL/VFR CLOUDS. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOME THREAT FOR -TSRA...BUT THE BEST INSTABILITY HOLDS
WELL SOUTH. FEEL THE CHANCES ARE MORE OF THE ISOLD/SCT VARIETY...AND
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. IF RADAR/MESO MODEL TRENDS START
TO FAVOR KRST/KLSE BEING IMPACTED BY A TS...WITH UPDATE FORECAST TO
REFLECT. WILL ALSO KEEP CIGS VFR FOR NOW...WITH THE CAVEAT OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IF THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY. THE 5SM -SHRA/BR
SEEMS LIKELY FOR KRST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THE PCPN CHANCES TO CLEAR EAST NEAR 00Z THIS EVENING...WITH A
CLEARING TREND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD HAVE SOME MVFR
BR...AND WILL SOME IN FOR KRST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. STORMS IN THIS REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO A NEARLY TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE. NO FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME...THOUGH...BECAUSE OF
1. STRONG 0-3/0-6KM SHEAR WHICH SHOULD KEEP STORMS PROGRESSIVE
2. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE DRIED OUT AND CAN TAKE MORE WATER
NEVERTHELESS...SINCE STORMS WILL HAVE HIGH RAINFALL RATES...THERE
COULD BE A NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WARNING OR TWO.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.
FOR LA CROSSE...
MONDAY....FORECAST HIGH 69. RECORD 65 IN 1994
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 68. RECORD 68 IN 1962
FOR ROCHESTER...
MONDAY....FORECAST HIGH 64. RECORD 64 IN 1952
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 67. RECORD 67 IN 1962
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....AJ
CLIMATE......AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
635 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS THROUGH THE
EVENING AS WELL AS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA. A SERIES OF MONSOONAL
SHORTWAVES WERE COMING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH...ONE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND A SECOND IN WYOMING. A
STREAM OF TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WAS ALSO EVIDENT AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A PLUME OF 15-18C 850MB
DEWPOINTS STRETCHED FROM OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA PER 00Z RAOBS. ALL THIS MOISTURE EQUATES TO PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES FROM SIOUX FALLS AREA SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A ZONE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
MONSOONAL SHORTWAVES ACTING ON THIS MOISTURE...ALONG WITH LOW TO MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...HAS LED TO SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS CAUSED THE
MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT TO GET STUCK IN FAR SOUTHERN IOWA.
SOME OF THE GENERALITIES FOR TODAYS FORECAST. THE 2 MONSOONAL
SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HELPING TO PULL THE
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ZONE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER
JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL CANADA UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO ALIGN ITSELF FROM CENTRAL MN THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR...
PLACING SOME IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. INSTABILITY WISE...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY 1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE SEEMS REASONABLE TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
HOVER IN THE MID 70S OR SO. PLENTIFUL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AS
WELL AS NOTED IN THE CURRENT WEATHER DISCUSSION...RUNNING AROUND 2
INCHES. THUS...PLENTY OF MOISTURE EXISTS TO COMBINE WITH DYNAMIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. 0-6KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR
VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION...ON THE
ORDER OF 40-50 KT AND 30-45 KT RESPECTIVELY. MUCH OF THIS SHEAR IS
CONFINED ABOVE 1 KM AS THE WINDS BELOW ARE FAIRLY LIGHT. STILL HAVE
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPH...THOUGH. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WOULD BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS...WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A TORNADO. THE HIGHER SHEAR AND DRYING SOILS AS OF LATE
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP ANY FLOOD CONCERN LOCALIZED...IN AGREEMENT TOO
WITH THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK.
NOW...THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES...
1. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE 2 MONSOONAL SHORTWAVES...WHICH
IMPACTS THE MOVEMENT OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ZONE AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. WHERE THAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSE...F-GEN
ZONE...AND DPVA FROM THE SHORTWAVES WILL MODULATE WHERE THE
CONVECTION ENDS UP. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE BOARD WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES...LEADING TO LOWERED CONFIDENCE.
2. HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN MAKE IT WHICH IMPACTS THE ZONE
OF INSTABILITY AND THUS HOW FAR NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA A
SEVERE RISK EXISTS. ITEM NUMBER 1 ABOVE WILL IMPACT THE WARM FRONT.
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTIES ABOVE...IT STILL APPEARS THROUGH THIS
EVENING LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-90 STAND TO SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERE WEATHER IS GOING TO HAPPEN BETWEEN
I-80 AND I-90 AFTER 2 PM TODAY...CONSISTING OF SUPERCELLS AND BOW
SEGMENTS. PINNING DOWN THE LOCATION ANY FINER THAN THAT IS
PROBLEMATIC AT THIS TIME. LATER FORECAST UPDATES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REFINE THE LOCATION AND TIMING.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE MORNING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO FOLLOW TRENDS
IN THE HRRR...WHILE A MODEL CONSENSUS DOMINATES THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NOTE THAT THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
THAT FIRES OVER WEST CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT. THE AFOREMENTIONED CONSENSUS JUST HAPPENS TO BE
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z NSSL WRF-ARW. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THERE WILL
BE A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DRYING TREND AS THE SHORTWAVES PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST... USHERING IN SUBSIDENCE AND MUCH DRIER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
A GRADUAL DESCENT OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON TRACK BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
THE TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...THERE ARE COUPLE OF ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH...
1. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE MUCH CONVERGENCE ON IT. THE 12.00Z ECMWF/NAM/REGIONAL
CANADIAN/HIRES ARW AND NMM ARE DRY...WHILE THE 12.00Z GFS HAS
REDUCED ITS QPF EVEN MORE. THE GFS STILL HAS TOO HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN WHAT SHOULD BE A FAVORABLE MIXING REGIME...THUS PREFER
THE DRIER IDEA.
2. RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LOW WITHIN THE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN WI MONDAY EVENING. DPVA FORCING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE PLENTY
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY IN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
3. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 850MB TEMP ANOMALIES PLUMMET TO
2 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD...OR
GENERALLY IN THE 4-7C RANGE. THESE READINGS GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME MODEL SUGGESTIONS ON TUESDAY
THAT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST...BOTH THE
850MB TEMP AND ACTUAL HIGH COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER. LOWS WILL BE
HELD UP SOMEWHAT BY BOTH CLOUDS AND A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ITS GOING TO FEEL MORE LIKE FALL VERSUS SUMMER.
AFTER TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT A LONG DRY
PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND 500MB HEIGHTS RISE.
HOWEVER...THE 12.00Z GFS SHOWS DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIDESPREAD LIGHT
PRECIP WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MODEL APPEARS TO BE
SUFFERING FROM OVER-DOING EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...NOTED IN ITS SURFACE
DEWPOINT FIELD...AND THUS CONVECTS EASIER. THUS...HAVE IGNORED IT
AND STAYED WITH THE DRY ECMWF/CANADIAN.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK...GETTING CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2014
MAIN FLIGHT CONCERNS WILL BE TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A
WARM FRONT IN IA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY. PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...
WITH AREAS OF BR WEST OF THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING AND AREAS OF CIGS
IN THE 2500-4500 FT RANGE AS THE LOWER LEVEL CONTINUE TO SATURATE.
THESE CIGS WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. THE FLOW WILL
SWING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING...USHERING IN SOME
DRIER AIR...DECREASING CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS.
SHRA/TSRA REMAIN PROBLEMATIC ACROSS THE FCST AREA/TAF SITES TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. SIGNAL FOR ONE ROUND OF WEAKENING CONVECTION TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS EXPECTED. ONLY INCLUDED THIS AS
VCSH THRU MID AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION. A STRONGER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SINK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
QUESTION REMAINS IF THIS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF...OVER
OR SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES BEFORE IT BEGINS ITS SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT. WITH THIS UNKNOWN...ONLY CARRIED A VCTS/CB MENTION AT THE
TAF SITES IN ROUGHLY THE 22-03Z TIME-FRAME FOR NOW. IF THE
CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER OR NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES...WOULD
LIKELY NEED A PERIOD OF TSRA WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN THE DOWNPOURS
FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN THE 22-03Z WINDOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. STORMS IN THIS REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO A NEARLY TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE. NO FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME...THOUGH...BECAUSE OF
1. STRONG 0-3/0-6KM SHEAR WHICH SHOULD KEEP STORMS PROGRESSIVE
2. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE DRIED OUT AND CAN TAKE MORE WATER
NEVERTHELESS...SINCE STORMS WILL HAVE HIGH RAINFALL RATES...THERE
COULD BE A NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WARNING OR TWO.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.
FOR LA CROSSE...
MONDAY....FORECAST HIGH 69. RECORD 65 IN 1994
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 68. RECORD 68 IN 1962
FOR ROCHESTER...
MONDAY....FORECAST HIGH 64. RECORD 64 IN 1952
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 67. RECORD 67 IN 1962
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....AJ
CLIMATE......AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
319 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS THROUGH THE
EVENING AS WELL AS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA. A SERIES OF MONSOONAL
SHORTWAVES WERE COMING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH...ONE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND A SECOND IN WYOMING. A
STREAM OF TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WAS ALSO EVIDENT AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A PLUME OF 15-18C 850MB
DEWPOINTS STRETCHED FROM OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA PER 00Z RAOBS. ALL THIS MOISTURE EQUATES TO PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES FROM SIOUX FALLS AREA SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A ZONE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
MONSOONAL SHORTWAVES ACTING ON THIS MOISTURE...ALONG WITH LOW TO MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...HAS LED TO SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS CAUSED THE
MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT TO GET STUCK IN FAR SOUTHERN IOWA.
SOME OF THE GENERALITIES FOR TODAYS FORECAST. THE 2 MONSOONAL
SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HELPING TO PULL THE
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ZONE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER
JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL CANADA UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO ALIGN ITSELF FROM CENTRAL MN THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR...
PLACING SOME IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. INSTABILITY WISE...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY 1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE SEEMS REASONABLE TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
HOVER IN THE MID 70S OR SO. PLENTIFUL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AS
WELL AS NOTED IN THE CURRENT WEATHER DISCUSSION...RUNNING AROUND 2
INCHES. THUS...PLENTY OF MOISTURE EXISTS TO COMBINE WITH DYNAMIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. 0-6KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR
VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION...ON THE
ORDER OF 40-50 KT AND 30-45 KT RESPECTIVELY. MUCH OF THIS SHEAR IS
CONFINED ABOVE 1 KM AS THE WINDS BELOW ARE FAIRLY LIGHT. STILL HAVE
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPH...THOUGH. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WOULD BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS...WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A TORNADO. THE HIGHER SHEAR AND DRYING SOILS AS OF LATE
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP ANY FLOOD CONCERN LOCALIZED...IN AGREEMENT TOO
WITH THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK.
NOW...THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES...
1. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE 2 MONSOONAL SHORTWAVES...WHICH
IMPACTS THE MOVEMENT OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ZONE AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. WHERE THAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSE...F-GEN
ZONE...AND DPVA FROM THE SHORTWAVES WILL MODULATE WHERE THE
CONVECTION ENDS UP. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE BOARD WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES...LEADING TO LOWERED CONFIDENCE.
2. HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN MAKE IT WHICH IMPACTS THE ZONE
OF INSTABILITY AND THUS HOW FAR NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA A
SEVERE RISK EXISTS. ITEM NUMBER 1 ABOVE WILL IMPACT THE WARM FRONT.
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTIES ABOVE...IT STILL APPEARS THROUGH THIS
EVENING LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-90 STAND TO SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERE WEATHER IS GOING TO HAPPEN BETWEEN
I-80 AND I-90 AFTER 2 PM TODAY...CONSISTING OF SUPERCELLS AND BOW
SEGMENTS. PINNING DOWN THE LOCATION ANY FINER THAN THAT IS
PROBLEMATIC AT THIS TIME. LATER FORECAST UPDATES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REFINE THE LOCATION AND TIMING.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE MORNING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO FOLLOW TRENDS
IN THE HRRR...WHILE A MODEL CONSENSUS DOMINATES THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NOTE THAT THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
THAT FIRES OVER WEST CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT. THE AFOREMENTIONED CONSENSUS JUST HAPPENS TO BE
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z NSSL WRF-ARW. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THERE WILL
BE A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DRYING TREND AS THE SHORTWAVES PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST... USHERING IN SUBSIDENCE AND MUCH DRIER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
A GRADUAL DESCENT OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON TRACK BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
THE TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...THERE ARE COUPLE OF ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH...
1. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE MUCH CONVERGENCE ON IT. THE 12.00Z ECMWF/NAM/REGIONAL
CANADIAN/HIRES ARW AND NMM ARE DRY...WHILE THE 12.00Z GFS HAS
REDUCED ITS QPF EVEN MORE. THE GFS STILL HAS TOO HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN WHAT SHOULD BE A FAVORABLE MIXING REGIME...THUS PREFER
THE DRIER IDEA.
2. RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LOW WITHIN THE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN WI MONDAY EVENING. DPVA FORCING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE PLENTY
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY IN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
3. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 850MB TEMP ANOMALIES PLUMMET TO
2 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD...OR
GENERALLY IN THE 4-7C RANGE. THESE READINGS GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME MODEL SUGGESTIONS ON TUESDAY
THAT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST...BOTH THE
850MB TEMP AND ACTUAL HIGH COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER. LOWS WILL BE
HELD UP SOMEWHAT BY BOTH CLOUDS AND A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ITS GOING TO FEEL MORE LIKE FALL VERSUS SUMMER.
AFTER TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT A LONG DRY
PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND 500MB HEIGHTS RISE.
HOWEVER...THE 12.00Z GFS SHOWS DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIDESPREAD LIGHT
PRECIP WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MODEL APPEARS TO BE
SUFFERING FROM OVER-DOING EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...NOTED IN ITS SURFACE
DEWPOINT FIELD...AND THUS CONVECTS EASIER. THUS...HAVE IGNORED IT
AND STAYED WITH THE DRY ECMWF/CANADIAN.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK...GETTING CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014
THE AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS HAS DISSIPATED OR LIFTED UP TO VFR
CEILINGS WITH THE BACK EDGE WORKING STEADILY EAST AND BY 06Z THE
CLOUDS SHOULD BE PAST KLSE. THIS INCREASES THE PROBABILITIES THAT
SOME FOG CAN FORM OVERNIGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST...WHICH WOULD DECREASE THE
FOG PROBABILITIES. THE HIGH CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE DISSIPATING SOME
AS THEY COME INTO THE AREA AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...SOME FOG
COULD FORM SO HAVE HELD ONTO THIS IN BOTH FORECASTS. A WARM FRONT
SITS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES
INTO THIS OVERNIGHT SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER NEBRASKA
AND SOUTH DAKOTA COULD DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS THE TREND THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN BY THE
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HAVE INTRODUCED A VCSH FOR THIS BY
MID MORNING WITH A VFR CEILING. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE TIED TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS WYOMING AND
MONTANA. THE 12.00Z NAM SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND MID DAY
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA AND THEN MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BASED ON THIS
TIMING...HAVE PUSHED THE TIMING OF THE VCTS BACK A LITTLE AT BOTH
SITES BUT DID INTRODUCE A MVFR CEILING AT KRST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. STORMS IN THIS REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO A NEARLY TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE. NO FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME...THOUGH...BECAUSE OF
1. STRONG 0-3/0-6KM SHEAR WHICH SHOULD KEEP STORMS PROGRESSIVE
2. ANTECEDANT CONDITIONS HAVE DRIED OUT AND CAN TAKE MORE WATER
NEVERTHELESS...SINCE STORMS WILL HAVE HIGH RAINFALL RATES...THERE
COULD BE A NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WARNING OR TWO.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.
FOR LA CROSSE...
MONDAY....FORECAST HIGH 69. RECORD 65 IN 1994
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 68. RECORD 68 IN 1962
FOR ROCHESTER...
MONDAY....FORECAST HIGH 64. RECORD 64 IN 1952
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 67. RECORD 67 IN 1962
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...AJ
CLIMATE...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1144 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO UNSEASONABLY
COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...EDGING SOUTHEAST.
A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WAS IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND
EXITING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON . THIS WAVE BROUGHT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY. A WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS
TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IT SHOULD BE PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT OUTSIDE
OF SEEING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG. THE
CLOUD COVER AND SOUTH WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.
A SHORTWAVE ROUGH THEN RACES EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD
FRONT EDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE WARM
FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE MAIN CONCERN LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH MIDDAY ON SATURDAY THEN...IF THE INSTABILITY CAN LIFT
NORTH INTO LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WE COULD
SEE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WHILE 0-1 KM
SHEAR ISN/T IMPRESSIVE...IT COULD POSSIBLY BE ENHANCED OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN CLOSER
TO WARM FRONT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OVER THESE AREAS. THERE IS EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW THANKS TO THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK POSITIONED OVER THE
REGION SO HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR IS WEAK SATURDAY MORNING BUT THEN RAMPS UP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN VALUES INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KTS. MOST OF THE SHEAR
IS LOCATED IN THE 1 TO 7 KM LAYER...SO EVEN ELEVATED STORMS COULD
POSSIBLY BECOME SEVERE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5
TO 2.0 INCHES TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND REMAIN IN
THIS RANGE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THESE PW VALUES COMBINED WITH WARM CLOUD
DEPTH OF 3.5 TO 4 KM WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
OVER NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014
THE FRONT THEN PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ENDING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THEN DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MAY GENERATE A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE. A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO
AROUND 4 C MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
OF -2.0 TO -2.5 PLACING US IN RECORD COLD
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY WHEN HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE TROUGH EXIT THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY . TEMPERATURES THEN START TO
MODERATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014
THE AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS HAS DISSIPATED OR LIFTED UP TO VFR
CEILINGS WITH THE BACK EDGE WORKING STEADILY EAST AND BY 06Z THE
CLOUDS SHOULD BE PAST KLSE. THIS INCREASES THE PROBABILITIES THAT
SOME FOG CAN FORM OVERNIGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST...WHICH WOULD DECREASE THE
FOG PROBABILITIES. THE HIGH CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE DISSIPATING SOME
AS THEY COME INTO THE AREA AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...SOME FOG
COULD FORM SO HAVE HELD ONTO THIS IN BOTH FORECASTS. A WARM FRONT
SITS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES
INTO THIS OVERNIGHT SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER NEBRASKA
AND SOUTH DAKOTA COULD DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS THE TREND THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN BY THE
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HAVE INTRODUCED A VCSH FOR THIS BY
MID MORNING WITH A VFR CEILING. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE TIED TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS WYOMING AND
MONTANA. THE 12.00Z NAM SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND MID DAY
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA AND THEN MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BASED ON THIS
TIMING...HAVE PUSHED THE TIMING OF THE VCTS BACK A LITTLE AT BOTH
SITES BUT DID INTRODUCE A MVFR CEILING AT KRST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY ARE 65 AT
ROCHESTER AND 66 AT LA CROSSE. THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD BREAK THE
RECORD LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 15TH. THE OLD RECORDS ARE
68 AT LA CROSSE SET BACK IN 1962 AND 67 AT ROCHESTER ALSO SET
BACK IN 1962.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1248 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.AVIATION...
FOR KHRO AND KBPK...SHRA/TSRA IN MO HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PUSH SWD.
LATEST HRRR INDICATES A WINDOW THIS MORNING WHEN BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THESE TAF SITES...FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS A
LULL OF A FEW HOURS...THEN A RENEWED CHANCE OF CONVECTION AS
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN. ALL IN ALL...TIMING CONFIDENCE
AT THIS POINT IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT...SO VCTS INDICATED. LATER
TAFS MAY BE ABLE TO REFINE A PERIOD WHEN TEMPO TSRA IS WARRANTED.
FOR KHOT...KLIT...KADF...KPBF...AND KLLQ...PATCHY MORNING
BR...ESPECIALLY AT KADF DUE TO ITS LOCATION IN AN AREA THAT
FREQUENTLY HAS STANDING WATER. OTHERWISE VFR THIS MORNING. DID NOT
INDICATE ANY CONVECTION TIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE. PROB30 INDICATED AFTER 00Z. AFTER CONVECTION DOES BEGIN
TO BREAK OUT LATER TODAY...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA ONCE TIMING BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED. AMD NOT SKED INDICATED AT KHOT DUE TO PROBLEMS WITH
VISIBILITY SENSOR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
AVIATION...
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NRN SITES AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARDS THE STATE. OVER TIME...THIS FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE BY MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA INCREASING FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS FOR
MON AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN EFFECTS FROM SHRA/TSRA...EXPECT DOMINANT
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...COULD
STILL SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE MON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO NEAR 105 TODAY AND MONDAY. THEN
CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INITIALLY...THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FINALLY MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURE FORECAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION.
THIS AFTERNOON...A MOSTLY SUNNY...HOT AND HUMID DAY HAS SET IN.
HIGHS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH A FEW UPPER 90S BY THE
END OF THE DAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGED FROM THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 102 DEGREES. THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BECOME MORE CENTERED WEST
OVER TX AND THE SW U.S...WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH HAS DEEPENED NOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY HAS PUSHED FROM THE
EASTERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SOME
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SEEN INTO AR...WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND SOME PREFRONTAL TROUGHING INTO NORTHERN AR. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS NOT DEVELOPED IN THE AREA.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TONIGHT WILL SEE A GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO AR. CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO AR MONDAY NIGHT
TO TUESDAY AM...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION. OVERALL THREAT
FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED AND LOW AT
THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL STILL BE HOT OVER SOUTHERN TO PARTS OF
CENTRAL AR ON MONDAY...BUT THEN LOWER WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. ON
TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE STATE...CONVECTION CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH...AS TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPS WILL BE FROM 10 TO NEAR 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY A MUCH LOWER CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT AS THE
FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY SOUTH OF AR...THEN LIFTS MORE
NORTH...UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST IN THE MODELS...BRING
POSSIBLE ROUNDS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO AR. SOUTHERN AR
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN. POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A WET AND COOL FORECAST WILL BE CONTINUED IN THE EXTENDED...AS
TROUGH OVER THE REGION REMAINS IN PLACE. STRONG WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT THURSDAY...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES
WILL TAPER OFF...BUT KEPT SOME IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...AS
ANOTHER WAVES MOVES THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE...WITH READINGS 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EVEN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 67 81 59 80 / 40 20 10 10
CAMDEN AR 74 89 65 84 / 50 40 10 30
HARRISON AR 64 78 56 76 / 20 10 10 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 72 86 62 81 / 40 30 10 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 84 62 82 / 50 30 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 74 88 64 85 / 50 40 10 20
MOUNT IDA AR 71 85 62 80 / 40 30 10 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 64 79 57 77 / 20 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 69 81 59 80 / 40 20 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 73 86 63 83 / 50 40 10 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 68 82 60 78 / 30 20 10 20
SEARCY AR 70 82 61 81 / 40 20 10 20
STUTTGART AR 72 84 62 82 / 50 30 10 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
946 PM MST SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY...LIKELY LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VERY ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. CONVECTION BEGAN
FIRING OVER THE RIM AND IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GOOD STRONG MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW HELPED TO PUSH THE STORMS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS.
STORMS INITIALLY APPEARED SINGLE CELLULAR BUT BECAME MORE ORGANIZED
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSED. STORMS THAT PASSED THROUGH THE PHOENIX
METROPOLITAN AREA PUT DOWN DAMAGING WINDS AND EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
CURRENTLY A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS PUSHING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND HAS AN ASSOCIATED LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS. SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY PUSHING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MCC ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA BORDER.
THE HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL...LIKE LAST EVENING...APPEARS TO HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPING ACTIVITY...BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION.
THIS MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER WAVE OF STORMS PUSHING INTO OUR CENTRAL
DESERTS FROM THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MCC APPEARS TO BE
DRIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SOME NEW STORMS IN
YUMA COUNTY AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
WITH THAT IN MIND...MADE SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OUR
POPS...INCREASING VIRTUALLY ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT AND EXTENDING HIGHER
POPS TO ALL THE WAY WEST TO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY...QPF...AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GRIDS.
AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY TO NIGHT MAY MEAN A SOMEWHAT LESS ACTIVE DAY
TOMORROW. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY DO SO IN AREAS THAT
WEREN`T AS WORKED OVER TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN JUL 13 2014
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A REMNANT MCV...AND ISNT WASTING ANY TIME MOVING TO
THE WEST. STRONG WINDS /BY MONSOON STANDARDS/ OF 15-20KTS WERE NOTED
IN THE 700-500MB LAYER THIS MORNING ON REGIONAL UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
AND THIS CERTAINLY WILL HELP STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...PWATS REMAIN AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS
APPROX 130-140 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR MID JULY. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE
DESERTS...THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS INDICATING AROUND 500 J/KG MLCAPE WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP.
STILL LOOKING AT A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOING TO STICK WITH THE IDEA THAT STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE DESERTS LATER TODAY BASED ON LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED INSTABILITY TRENDS. HRRR...LOCAL WRF
ENSEMBLE...AND RAP ALL INDICATE STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
METRO...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED POPS INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
METRO...COLLIDING OUTFLOWS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN FORCING
MECHANISM. WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN DESERTS SOUTH OF PHOENIX.
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS PWATS WILL CLIMB
SUBSTANTIALLY...REACHING AROUND 2 INCHES BY 12Z MONDAY. AS
ALWAYS...HOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RECOVER AFTER THIS SURGE...HOW
CLOUDY IT WILL BE...ETC...WILL DICTATE JUST HOW ACTIVE THINGS WILL
BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. A SAMPLING OF NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MIX OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS AMONG RECENT RUNS OF HI-RES MODELS AND 4KM
NAM IS THAT STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG THE RIM AND PROPAGATE INTO
THE DESERTS. WITH MLCAPE FORECASTS AROUND 1000 J/KG...STARTING TO
LOOK MORE PROMISING FOR STORMS ACROSS THE METRO. STORMS ON MONDAY
WILL MAINLY PRESENT A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH SUN WILL MANAGE TO PEAK
THROUGH THE CLOUDS WHICH COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DOWN TREND THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL STILL PEAK OUT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH SOME
PLACES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BREAKING
THE 110 DEGREE MARK. AFTER THE SURGE OF MOISTURE TONIGHT...MONDAY/S
HIGHS WILL TAKE A BIG HIT...POSSIBLY NOT EVEN BREAKING 100 ACROSS
SOME LOWER DESERT SPOTS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH STORM AND CLOUD
COVERAGE THERE ENDS UP BEING.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ARIZONA INTO
TUESDAY...BUT MODELS ARE NOW POINTING TOWARD AN EARLIER TIMEFRAME
FOR DRY AIR WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF OUR WESTERN ZONES DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WORKING IN...BUT SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS ARIZONA.
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN ON TUESDAY WHILE SETTLING SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA OR
NORTHERN MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHIFT WILL SWITCH OUR FLOW OUT
THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL QUICKLY SCOUR OUT MOISTURE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE
EUROPEAN AND THE GFS ARE POINTING AT A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND FOR
LATE THIS WEEK...LIKELY RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE MONSOON ACTIVITY
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE LIKELY SOUTHWESTERLY DRYING FLOW...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
QUITE A BIT STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE DRIEST DAY WILL END UP BEING
EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...BEFORE SOME MOISTURE LIKELY STARTS
SEEPING BACK INTO OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GET A
BUMP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT FORECAST 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ONLY IN
THE 590-592DM RANGE WHICH WOULD GIVE US HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE PHOENIX
METROPOLITAN AREA...THOUGH AN OCCASIONAL STORM COULD MOVE INTO THE
VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT COULD
BECOME VARIABLE AND GUSTY AS OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS MOVE INTO THE
AREA.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES WEST ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN YUMA AND IMPERIAL COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH ABOUT 10 KTS BUT COULD BECOME VARIABLE AND
GUSTY IF OUTFLOW FROM STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AIR WILL ALREADY BE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE DISTRICT TUESDAY...SPREADING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CNTRL ARIZONA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RELEGATED TO GILA COUNTY...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS...THOUGH SOME STRONGER GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN GILA COUNTY. WITH THE DRYING
TREND...MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER TEENS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MCLANE/LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
408 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
YIELDING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. DRY AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THU AND FRI...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SAT BEFORE
THE RISK OF RAIN SUN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK. PRECIP IS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE STABLE AIR IN
PLACE. CURRENT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALONG A LINE FROM BVY TO
BDL...BELIEVE THIS LINE WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND LEAVING A
BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TOMORROW. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL DROP A GOOD AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL AS PWATS ARE STILL ABOVE 1.7 INCHES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH SHORT MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER NORTHEAST HAS SPARK SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAK BUT HOLD TOGETHER BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PWATS ARE 1.5-2 INCHES SO
A GOOD DOSING OF RAIN WILL FALL. THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATION AS
WELL AS THE REGION WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE DIDNT GET WORKED OVER BY
THE EVENING CONVECTION. THE RAP MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST
ESPECIALLY WHEN THE LLJ BEGINS TO DEVELOP. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING WITH HOW HIGH THE PWATS ARE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...LIKE A TROPICAL FEEL OUT THERE.
OTHERWISE LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S
WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND/OR EVENING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE***
***HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT***
AN INTERESTING SET UP IN PLACE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT DETAILS/TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN. APPEARS THE
MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/S AND
WHEN/WHERE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.
SOME OF OUR GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF MOST OF THE CONVECTION UNTIL VERY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WHEN THE MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND GETS THINGS GOING CLOSE TO 00Z IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.
OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS BREAKS OUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT EARLIER. WE ARE DEALING WITH A VERY
MOIST/UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND IT WON/T TAKE MUCH HEATING TO GET
SOME CONVECTION GOING. WE SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLIER
THAN SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.
OTHER THAN THE TIMING ISSUES...THE BIG UNCERTAINTY THAT NEEDS TO BE
RESOLVED IS THE AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSULATION. GIVEN PATTERN...EXPECT
TO SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND BUT A FEW PEEKS OF SUN WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE WILL HAVE 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...WE
CAN GET AWAY WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS AND STILL HAVE A SEVERE
THREAT...BUT MORE SUN WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE POTENTIAL. LOOKS LIKE
WE SHOULD SEE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOP...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF
25 TO 35 KNOTS AND PERHAPS LOCALLY OVER 40 KNOTS WHEN THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT...AND 70+ DEWPOINTS.
ALL IN ALL...DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE SHEAR
SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING. PERHAPS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL ENDS UP
IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY/SHEAR
OVERLAP...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ANYWHERE.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR HAIL WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS. IN
ADDITION...0 TO 1 KM HELICITY VALUES MAY EXCEED 100 ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S...AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
IT APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COME MORE WIDESPREAD. PWATS
ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AT 2+ INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BUT
THOUGH THERE IS MORE TIME TO GET A BETTER FEEL ON THE LOCATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TUE NIGHT INTO WED ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING
* DRY AND LESS HUMID THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* DRY WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO SAT BUT RISK OF MORE RAIN SUNDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BOTH ECMWF...GFS AND GEFS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON STRONGEST JET DYNAMICS ARRIVING TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS PA/NY INTO QUEBEC WITH
SPEEDS REACHING +3 SD! RRQ OF THIS JET MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING
THIS TIME PROVIDING ENHANCED QG FORCING FOR ASCENT. THIS INDUCES ONE
OR MORE SURFACE WAVES RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT INTO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS ENHANCES THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA. THUS STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
COMBINED WITH FRONTAL SCALE FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH PWATS UP
TO +2 SD WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH A RISK OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CT/MA AND INTO
RI TUE NIGHT INTO WED. IN ADDITION DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
INCREASES THE RISK OF BACK BUILDING CELLS ALONG WITH CONVECTION
TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA. THESE ATTRIBUTES WILL INCREASE THE RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING.
FARTHER WEST ACROSS WESTERN CT/MA...SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD EXIT
THIS REGION LATER WED WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEST TO EAST. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY/WINDY OVER CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CLIPS THIS AREA.
HOWEVER LOW LEVEL TEMP INVERSION SHOULD PRECLUDE STRONG WINDS ALOFT
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA AS T-STORMS COULD TAP INTO THE LOW
LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS DEW PTS CLIMB INTO THE L70S AND COMBINE WITH WET/SATURATED
GROUND.
WED NIGHT/THU AND FRI...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING OFFSHORE WED NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION.
HOWEVER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF NEW ENGLAND THU AND
FRI YIELDING SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER COLUMN APPEARS TOO DRY TO YIELD ANY SHOWERS...
PROBABLY JUST SOME DIURNAL CU. THUS DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI ALONG
WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AS DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE 50S.
AS FOR THE BEACHES THU...WILL HAVE TO WATCH LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY
SWELLS FROM PERSISTENT SSW WINDS THIS WEEK. THIS SHOULD YIELD A
MODEST SURF WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS ACROSS
SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES.
NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SHORT WAVE RIDGING HOLDING ON ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SAT FOR DRY
SEASONABLE WEATHER. HOWEVER THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH /WITH LOTS OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE/ APPEARS TO OVERSPREAD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH A
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ESP IN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. FOG POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW ESP
ACROSS SOUTH COAST AS WIND GUSTS ARE STILL TO HIGH...SO MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE STRATUS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...LOWERED VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT....MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE BEST SHOT MAY BE IN OUR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. BIGGEST THREATS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALLY
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AS FOR SKY/VSBYS OUTSIDE OF
PRECIPITATION VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE DURING THE DAY TUE EXCEPT
LOWER CONDITIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF MASS PIKE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TO NIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR TO IFR
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING BUT
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS KEEP CIGS
AND VSBYS NEAR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE BIGGEST THREATS BEING TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE PROB OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 08Z.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUE NIGHT AND WED...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND T-
STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.
SSW WINDS PERSIST. SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY EXIT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WED
AFTN WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING HERE TOWARD VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WED NIGHT/THU/FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS WED NIGHT WITH VFR BY MID
MORNING THU. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONTINUES THU AFTN INTO FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MANY OF THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH MAY BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET
ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS. THEREFORE...SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN
PLACE. MAY HAVE SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON MONDAY...BUT STILL
EXPECT THEM TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THEREFORE...DO NOT THINK
WILL NEED NEAR SHORE SCA HEADLINES. ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...SEAS
MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT. THEREFORE...OPTED TO JUST EXTEND THOSE SCA HEADLINES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MAY HAVE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. IN ADDITION...MORE FOG MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUE NIGHT/WED...ROUGH WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND T-STORMS CONTAINING
HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. MODEST SSW WIND OF 15-20 KT WITH
LOW RISK OF GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
WED NIGHT/THU/FRI...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WED NGT WITH IMPROVING
WEATHER/DRYING TREND THU AND LASTING INTO FRI. LEFTOVER SSW SWELL
SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SLOWLY DECAY FRI. GOOD VSBY BY MID MORNING THU
AND CONTINUING INTO FRI. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
146 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
YIELDING PERIODS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THIS TIME ALONG WITH A HEAVY
RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
200 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK. PRECIP IS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE STABLE AIR IN
PLACE. CURRENT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALONG A LINE FROM BVY TO
BDL...BELIEVE THIS LINE WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND LEAVING A
BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TOMORROW. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL DROP A GOOD AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL AS PWATS ARE STILL ABOVE 1.7 INCHES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH SHORT MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER NORTHEAST HAS SPARK SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAK BUT HOLD TOGETHER BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PWATS ARE 1.5-2 INCHES SO
A GOOD DOSING OF RAIN WILL FALL. THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATION AS
WELL AS THE REGION WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE DIDNT GET WORKED OVER BY
THE EVENING CONVECTION. THE RAP MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORECAST
ESPECIALLY WHEN THE LLJ BEGINS TO DEVELOP. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING WITH HOW HIGH THE PWATS ARE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...LIKE A TROPICAL FEEL OUT THERE.
OTHERWISE LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S
WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND/OR EVENING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE***
***HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT***
AN INTERESTING SET UP IN PLACE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT DETAILS/TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN. APPEARS THE
MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/S AND
WHEN/WHERE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.
SOME OF OUR GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF MOST OF THE CONVECTION UNTIL VERY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WHEN THE MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND GETS THINGS GOING CLOSE TO 00Z IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.
OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS BREAKS OUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT EARLIER. WE ARE DEALING WITH A VERY
MOIST/UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND IT WON/T TAKE MUCH HEATING TO GET
SOME CONVECTION GOING. WE SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLIER
THAN SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.
OTHER THAN THE TIMING ISSUES...THE BIG UNCERTAINTY THAT NEEDS TO BE
RESOLVED IS THE AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSULATION. GIVEN PATTERN...EXPECT
TO SEE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND BUT A FEW PEEKS OF SUN WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE WILL HAVE 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...WE
CAN GET AWAY WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS AND STILL HAVE A SEVERE
THREAT...BUT MORE SUN WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE POTENTIAL. LOOKS LIKE
WE SHOULD SEE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOP...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF
25 TO 35 KNOTS AND PERHAPS LOCALLY OVER 40 KNOTS WHEN THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT...AND 70+ DEWPOINTS.
ALL IN ALL...DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE SHEAR
SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING. PERHAPS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL ENDS UP
IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY/SHEAR
OVERLAP...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ANYWHERE.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR HAIL WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS. IN
ADDITION...0 TO 1 KM HELICITY VALUES MAY EXCEED 100 ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S...AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
IT APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COME MORE WIDESPREAD. PWATS
ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AT 2+ INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BUT
THOUGH THERE IS MORE TIME TO GET A BETTER FEEL ON THE LOCATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* NUMEROUS SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
* SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ON
TUESDAY
* WARM AND VERY HUMID TUESDAY
* IMPROVING WEATHER WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS LATE THIS
WEEK
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH AN ANOMALOUS
TROUGH/CUTOFF COLD POOL MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK.
AS THIS TROUGH EVOLVES INTO THE LONG RANGE TIMEFRAME AND SHIFTS
SLOWLY SE...SURFACE WAVES AND TROUGHS WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN THE
DEVELOPING SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH TROPICAL AIR ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH PWATS
REMAINING IN THE 2.1 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALL
THIS...ALONG WITH THE SW FLOW IN PLACE...CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE
QPF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND 00Z THU IN THE FORECAST...
BUT THAT IS AERIAL COVERAGE. MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LOCALLY
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS.
12Z MODEL CYCLE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT IN VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS LOW PRES WAVE MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT LYING ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING RR QUADRANT OF 120 KT H3
JET PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUE INTO WED...ALONG WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY IN PLACE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SBCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG...AND EVEN 0-1 KM HELICITIES UP TO
AROUND 100 /M2. WILL SEE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. MAY ALSO SEE HAIL
AND...AGAIN...CAN NOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE SPINUP. HOWEVER...THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SOLAR INSULATION...AS THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND. SPC HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY PUSHING THE FRONT E DURING
WEDNESDAY AS THE H5 TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. SOME INSTABILITY WILL LINGER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
THERE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...AND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME HEAVY
RAINERS AS DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WED NIGHT.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
HUMIDITIES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH A POSSIBLE TRAILING H5
SHORT WAVE TRYING TO APPROACH LATE SAT OR SUN. HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS POSSIBLE FEATURE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGH SHOULD KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ESP IN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. FOG POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW ESP
ACROSS SOUTH COAST AS WIND GUSTS ARE STILL TO HIGH...SO MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE STRATUS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...LOWERED VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT....MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE BEST SHOT MAY BE IN OUR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. BIGGEST THREATS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALLY
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AS FOR SKY/VSBYS OUTSIDE OF
PRECIPITATION VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE DURING THE DAY TUE EXCEPT
LOWER CONDITIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF MASS PIKE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TO NIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR TO IFR
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING BUT
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS KEEP CIGS
AND VSBYS NEAR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE BIGGEST THREATS BEING TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE PROB OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 08Z.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH SCT TO
NUMEROUS TSTMS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS LIKELY. WILL SEE AREAS OF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIP. SOME GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS LIKELY TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL-E MA/RI. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ACROSS CT VALLEY TUE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY WED. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MIDDAY ACROSS CT VALLEY AND SLOWLY PUSHING E DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MVFR MAY LINGER INTO WED EVENING ACROSS E MA/RI. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE AREAS WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS E MA SHOULD IMPROVE BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR.
FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MANY OF THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH MAY BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET
ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS. THEREFORE...SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN
PLACE. MAY HAVE SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON MONDAY...BUT STILL
EXPECT THEM TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THEREFORE...DO NOT THINK
WILL NEED NEAR SHORE SCA HEADLINES. ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...SEAS
MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT. THEREFORE...OPTED TO JUST EXTEND THOSE SCA HEADLINES
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MAY HAVE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. IN ADDITION...MORE FOG MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS ON THE OPEN
WATERS UP TO 5-6 FT. SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS WITH VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
REDUCED VSBYS. LOW CHANCE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS. VSBYS
ALSO REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATERS. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 KT. SEAS
REMAIN AOA 5 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS. STILL EXPECT HEAVY SHOWERS/SCT
TSTMS AND PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS. WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT FROM W-E
WED NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG LINGERS ON THE EASTERN WATERS
THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN WATERS EARLY THU...OTHERWISE GOOD VSBYS. W
TO NW WINDS DIMINISHING...BUT SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS THU...WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE THU NIGHT. WILL SEE LIGHT S
TO SW WINDS FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WITH BOSTON AT 12.2 FEET AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVENT
ANY PROBLEMS ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST...WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY ISSUES. NO
COASTAL PRODUCTS ARE ANTICIPATED. WORST CASE SCENARIO IS VERY
MINOR SPLASH OVER WITH NO REAL IMPACTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ231>234-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
128 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA MID TO
LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
XPCT CONVECTION TO ONCE AGAIN REIGNITE OVER THE COASTAL WTRS LTE
TNGT/ERLY MON MRNG AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT CNTR EMERGES OFF THE
SC COAST. THIS SOLN SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP. SHOULD
SEE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WTRS AS LOW-LEVEL
STEERING TRAJS ARE PROGGED TO VEER TO THE SW AFT MIDNGT. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE SC BEACHES AND MUCH OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE COASTLINE.
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING SHOWING 20 PCNT ACROSS
MAINLY THE SC BEACHES AND UP TO 40 PERCENT FROM ROUGHLY FOLLY
BEACH NE TO MCCLELLANVILLE. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR 70S INLAND
TO THE MID-UPR 70S AT THE COAST AND DWTN CHARLESTON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...I EXPECT WE WILL WAKE UP TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT THERE WILL BE A
DIFFERENCE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A LEE TROF BECOMING
ESTABLISHED DUE TO INLAND HEATING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A
BIT STRONGER...ALLOWING WINDS TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND KEEP MORE
OF THE RAIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS RATHER THAN MOVING WELL INLAND. OF
COURSE...THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING
HOURS...AND THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION INLAND DURING THE
MAXIMUM HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN
RECENTLY...HOWEVER.
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE WARMER DUE TO BOTH THE MORE PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AS WELL AS WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER. I STILL EXPECT MANY PLACES TO GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
INLAND...WITH THE USUAL UPPER 80S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT THE
BEACHES.
TUESDAY...ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. A DEVELOPING SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA BY TUESDAY MORNING...MAKING IT TO THE MIDLANDS AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT
TOO FAR INLAND DUE TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. I AM
GENERALLY GOING WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE. MAIN REASON I AM
NOT GOING HIGHER IS THAT THE TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.
BEST UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST BY SUNSET
TUESDAY...SO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION UNLIKE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA.
TEMPS ARE TRICKY ON TUESDAY. IF THE FRONT IS JUST A FEW HOURS
SLOWER...IT COULD BE A QUITE HOT DAY WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE
AGAIN OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL POSITION...I HAVE OPTED TO GO ONLY MID 90S MOST PLACES AWAY
FROM THE COAST WITH UPPER 80S AGAIN AT THE BEACHES...ALTHOUGH THAT
IS STILL ABOVE GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING OVERNIGHT...THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT INCREASES...AND THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...HELPING TO INCREASE SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
I THINK THAT WE MAY SEE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OF THE
AREA CONTINUE TO STEADILY MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT...SO I KEPT POPS I THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY.
WEDNESDAY...ALL SIGNS POINT TO THE SURFACE FRONT MAKING AN ABRUPT
HALT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT RAPIDLY PULLS INTO EASTERN CANADA. SINCE MODELS ARE SHOWING
PWS IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE...I MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING
FORECAST OF GOOD CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. IT MIGHT BE A TOUCH DRIER
ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE...SO POPS ARE A BIT LOWER THERE...BUT NOT
BY MUCH. DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90. REALLY LOW PWS WILL BE TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE IN NORTH
GEORGIA...BUT JUST WONT MAKE IT TO THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
COLD FRONT MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY BUT BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST SOUTH/EAST OF
THE TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KCHS...DURING THE 09Z-12Z TIME SPAN.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS NEAR TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON REMAINS UNCLEAR AND WILL BE INDIRECTLY RELATED TO
MORNING CONVECTION OR LACK THEREOF. WILL OMIT ANY MENTION OF
VCTS/CBS FROM 06Z TAFS BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...THUS
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR LATER TAF
PACKAGES. OTHERWISE...VFR THOUGH MONDAY EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
DUE MAINLY TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WITH THE LEE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED INLAND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. IN FACT...SOME PORTIONS OF THE WATERS COULD APPROACH 15-20
KT...THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL BE AROUND 15 KT. SEAS WILL TICK UP A BIT
AS WELL...BECOMING 2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND GENERALLY 3 FT BEYOND.
THERE COULD BE 4 FT SEAS IN THE OUTER GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THOUGH THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AS
LAND BREEZE CREATES A NICE OF AREA SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RATHER THAN MOVING
STEADILY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE MORNING...THEY SHOULD START
DRIFTING PARALLEL TOO AND EVENTUALLY FURTHER OFFSHORE AS ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
TIGHTER THAN USUAL GRADIENT DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH
WINDS 15-20 KT AT TIMES. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15
KT. AS THE FRONT DIES OUT WEST OF THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES FAIRLY WEAK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES DUE TO THE FULL MOON/PERIGEE COULD LEAD
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THE CHARLESTON AREA
MONDAY EVENING WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1159 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA MID TO
LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
XPCT CONVECTION TO ONCE AGAIN REIGNITE OVER THE COASTAL WTRS LTE
TNGT/ERLY MON MRNG AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT CNTR EMERGES OFF THE
SC COAST. THIS SOLN SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP. SHOULD
SEE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WTRS AS LOW-LEVEL
STEERING TRAJS ARE PROGGED TO VEER TO THE SW AFT MIDNGT. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE SC BEACHES AND MUCH OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE COASTLINE.
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING SHOWING 20 PCNT ACROSS
MAINLY THE SC BEACHES AND UP TO 40 PERCENT FROM ROUGHLY FOLLY
BEACH NE TO MCCLELLANVILLE. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR 70S INLAND
TO THE MID-UPR 70S AT THE COAST AND DWTN CHARLESTON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...I EXPECT WE WILL WAKE UP TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT THERE WILL BE A
DIFFERENCE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A LEE TROF BECOMING
ESTABLISHED DUE TO INLAND HEATING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A
BIT STRONGER...ALLOWING WINDS TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND KEEP MORE
OF THE RAIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS RATHER THAN MOVING WELL INLAND. OF
COURSE...THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING
HOURS...AND THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION INLAND DURING THE
MAXIMUM HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN
RECENTLY...HOWEVER.
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE WARMER DUE TO BOTH THE MORE PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AS WELL AS WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER. I STILL EXPECT MANY PLACES TO GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
INLAND...WITH THE USUAL UPPER 80S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT THE
BEACHES.
TUESDAY...ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. A DEVELOPING SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA BY TUESDAY MORNING...MAKING IT TO THE MIDLANDS AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT
TOO FAR INLAND DUE TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. I AM
GENERALLY GOING WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE. MAIN REASON I AM
NOT GOING HIGHER IS THAT THE TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.
BEST UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST BY SUNSET
TUESDAY...SO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION UNLIKE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA.
TEMPS ARE TRICKY ON TUESDAY. IF THE FRONT IS JUST A FEW HOURS
SLOWER...IT COULD BE A QUITE HOT DAY WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE
AGAIN OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL POSITION...I HAVE OPTED TO GO ONLY MID 90S MOST PLACES AWAY
FROM THE COAST WITH UPPER 80S AGAIN AT THE BEACHES...ALTHOUGH THAT
IS STILL ABOVE GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING OVERNIGHT...THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT INCREASES...AND THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...HELPING TO INCREASE SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
I THINK THAT WE MAY SEE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OF THE
AREA CONTINUE TO STEADILY MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT...SO I KEPT POPS I THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY.
WEDNESDAY...ALL SIGNS POINT TO THE SURFACE FRONT MAKING AN ABRUPT
HALT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT RAPIDLY PULLS INTO EASTERN CANADA. SINCE MODELS ARE SHOWING
PWS IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE...I MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING
FORECAST OF GOOD CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. IT MIGHT BE A TOUCH DRIER
ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE...SO POPS ARE A BIT LOWER THERE...BUT NOT
BY MUCH. DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90. REALLY LOW PWS WILL BE TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE IN NORTH
GEORGIA...BUT JUST WONT MAKE IT TO THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
COLD FRONT MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY BUT BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KCHS...AFTER 06Z-09Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
ASSESS POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
DUE MAINLY TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WITH THE LEE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED INLAND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. IN FACT...SOME PORTIONS OF THE WATERS COULD APPROACH 15-20
KT...THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL BE AROUND 15 KT. SEAS WILL TICK UP A BIT
AS WELL...BECOMING 2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND GENERALLY 3 FT BEYOND.
THERE COULD BE 4 FT SEAS IN THE OUTER GA WATERS BEYOND 40 NM. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THOUGH THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AS
LAND BREEZE CREATES A NICE OF AREA SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RATHER THAN MOVING
STEADILY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE MORNING...THEY SHOULD START
DRIFTING PARALLEL TOO AND EVENTUALLY FURTHER OFFSHORE AS ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
TIGHTER THAN USUAL GRADIENT DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH
WINDS 15-20 KT AT TIMES. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15
KT. AS THE FRONT DIES OUT WEST OF THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES FAIRLY WEAK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES DUE TO THE FULL MOON/PERIGEE COULD LEAD
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THE CHARLESTON AREA
MONDAY EVENING WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
444 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
347 AM CDT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPS TODAY AND TUESDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW TEMP
MODERATION TREND FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR MID-JULY WITH A PAIR OF DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOWS
OVER ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN QUEBEC PER GOES VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING. WESTERN-MOST UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AND LIFTING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON THROUGH TONIGHT...LIFTING NORTHEAST
WITH THE UPPER CIRCULATION TUESDAY. CONSOLIDATION OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA
ESPECIALLY BY LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE UPPER
60S/AROUND 70 BY TUESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE
CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND. LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE WITHIN
5 DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COLDEST AIR...TEMPS +4C
AT 850 HPA AND -23C AT 500 HPA IN THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
IN ADDITION TO THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY SHOWING UP ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
IL EARLY THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A QUICK-MOVING SPEED MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW. HIGH-RES WRF/RAP/HRRR RUNS ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO DEVELOP SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE LIKELY TO REMAIN
FAIRLY ISOLATED. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH A COMBINATION OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING THROUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA APPEAR THE HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...AS WELL
AS GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN GENERAL WITH SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPS STILL IN THE LOW-MID 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE DURING THE MID-DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA...AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO
HELP TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FOCUS FOR GREATER SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE. THUS HAVE GENERALLY CARRIED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. PASSAGE OF VORT AXIS WITH SHORT WAVE
WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW EARLY THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SHOULD BRING
SHOWER THREAT TO AN END. A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THOUGH BY THAT
TIME THE UPPER TROUGH IS PULLING AWAY WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES
DEVELOPING.
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF RETREATING UPPER LOW...AND SLOWLY DRIFTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S AND
EVENTUALLY TO 80/LOW 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THE GFS IS NOTABLY
FURTHER NORTH AND DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE AND BRINGS THE THREAT OF
PRECIP BACK TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH HAVE
DISCOUNTED IT AS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AND PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH FOCUS THIS SYSTEM ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF ORGANIZED PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN TIERS OF STATES BY SUNDAY.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15THJULY 16TH
CHICAGO52 IN 196749 IN 1945
ROCKFORD45 IN 193046 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 N 190362 IN 1912
ROCKFORD64 IN 196268 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE MAY BE GREATER.
* GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 09Z...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK AND THUS RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THERE AREA OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST IOWA HAS SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH THESE SHOWERS HAS
REMAINED LARGELY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT EXPECT THEM
TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER RFD BY 5 AM. SINCE THE HRRR AND SPC WRF HAVE
DONE WELL THIS EVOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE A VCSH MENTION AT THE
CHICAGO TERMINALS FOR THIS UPDATE...AS THE COVERAGE IS NOT VERY
WIDESPREAD AND MAY AVOID INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS BUT WILL MONITOR
THESE TRENDS. THE CHANCES IN ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTION ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN TAF AND CIGS REMAIN VFR.
THIS ACTIVITY CLEARS BY 14-15Z...THEN AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTH
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
REASSESS THE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS WITH
THE 12Z PACKAGE. NO CHANGE IN CURRENT INDICATIONS THAT ANY
ISOLATED THUNDER WOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MAIN CHICAGO
AREA TERMINALS...POSSIBLY IMPACTING GYY.
AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TODAY...MOST
TERMINALS CAN EXPECT NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY A BIT
HIGHER IN THE 21Z-0Z TIME FRAME.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THIS MORNING BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTING EITHER TERMINAL. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AT ORD/MDW.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON SPEEDS
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. PRIMARILY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
337 AM CDT
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS HAS CLEARED THE LAKE EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH LATER TODAY. WINDS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST BUT NOW ARE
BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT THEN VEER TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHWARD AND WILL BRING A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
LAKE MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PUSH OF
MUCH COOLER AIR. THIS WILL CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAKE IN QUITE A WHILE SUPPORTING THE MIXING OF STRONGER NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AND IT DOES APPEAR THAT 20 TO 25 KT
GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT THE INDIANA
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR WINDS AND
WAVES MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WEAKENS THROUGH THE WEEK AND MOVES OVER THE LAKE BY
WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH LIGHT SPEEDS
WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST.
NO CHANGES IN REASONING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 MB TEMPS COOLING TO AROUND
+5 OR +6 C INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LEADING TO A LAKE-850 DELTA T OF AROUND +11-12 C.
SOME OF THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF DEEP
INSTABILITY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE USING
TODAYS WATER TEMPS AT THE MID LAKE BUOYS. THESE CONDITIONS STILL
ARE ON THE LOWER END OF WATER SPOUT POTENTIAL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR NOW.
KMD/MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM
TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 PM MONDAY TO 1
PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
252 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A FRONT IS ADVERTIZED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.
THE HRRR INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT STORMS JUST NORTH OF THE FA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z. PLAN TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN CASE THEY SURVIVE OR
DEVELOP AGAIN. BY THIS EVENING THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FA
PRODUCING SLIM CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT EXCEPT THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ONCE AGAIN LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP
POPS LOW FOR TUESDAY. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WHICH LIMIT
FORCING OVER THE AREA. FORCING IMPROVES SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS GOOD AS WELL.
PLAN TO CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE
NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GOOD FORCING AND MOISTURE CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA. HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS LOOK ON TRACK. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE FORCING STARTS MOVING EAST OF THE FA SO WILL
GO WITH DECREASING POPS.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S TODAY. EVEN COOLER
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S. THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 65. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID
50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON THURSDAY A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH
GRADUAL MODERATING OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES OVER ROUGHLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TWO SEPERATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE REASONABLY GOOD TEMPORAL
AGREEMENT IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. ONE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF WEAK RIDGING AND THEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE SATURDAY. FORCING FROM THESE SHORTWAVES AND AT
LEAST MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND RISE TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOPED WITHIN THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THE
PERIOD WITH SOME DEVELOPED NOTED NORTH OF KMCK. HOWEVER NEWER
GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER EAST THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE. SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD. HOWEVER...DID
PUT IN A VCTS MENTION SINCE IT STILL LOOK EAST OF KMCK BUT IS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE VCTS MENTION.
AT THIS TIME EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE WEST OF BOTH SITES DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. KGLD LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHOSE NOT TO PUT ANY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AFTER THE
WINDSHIFT...THE WINDS WILL GET GUSTY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
429 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHOWERY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A
POTENT UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A STRONG MID/UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN-CENTRAL MN IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS TURN SOUTHEASTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ACCELERATING ENE AWAY ACROSS CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI HAS KICKED OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED AT BEST
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HORUS.
TODAY...THE OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK...WITH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO REFINE POPS BASED OFF THE
LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS AND NEW MODEL GUIDANCE. LOCAL 12KM WRF AND
NCEP HRRR MODELS HAVE HANDLED OVERNIGHT PRECIP EVOLUTION FAIRLY WELL
AND ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TODAYS PRECIP. THEREFORE...EMPLOYED
THOSE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM TO DETERMINE
PRECIP EVOLUTION TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPANDING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN CWA BY DAY BREAK.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FADE AS IT PULLS AWAY
FROM THE MAIN LOW. SOME CONCERNS HAVE APPEARED WITH THE LATEST WV
TRENDS OF THE MID/UPPER LOWER. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ANALYZING THE LOW A
TOUCH FARTHER EAST THAN SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WOULD INDICATE. THIS
PLACES SOME DOUBT ON THE PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND THE BULK OF THE FORCING DIGS FARTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WI. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON THIS TREND
WITH SUBSEQUENT RUNS...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
ONTONAGON TO MARQUETTE. MAY NEED TO DO THIS MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS DEPENDING ON THE LATEST OBS.
EVEN WITH A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK...SOME DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH
INCREASED FORCING WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
INDUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CWA. LIGHT WINDS
INITIALLY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE SHORELINE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BEFORE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WNW THIS AFTERNOON AND
STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT. WITH ALL FACTORS IN PLACE...BEST PRECIP
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM IRONWOOD TO NEGAUNEE TO
MANISTIQUE AFTER NOON.
MUCAPE VALUES REACH A MEAGER 200 J/KG IN A VERY NARROW PROFILE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST HALF THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A STRAY RUMBLE
OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE...DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN EXTREMELY LOW COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WITH SOME CAPE TO
WORK WITH...SHOWERS COULD BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE AT TIMES.
TONIGHT...A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA...THOUGH WITH WASHED OUT MID-LEVEL FORCING AROUND...HAVE
KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A DEFORMATION/FGEN REGION
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE NORTHWEST CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY. A
3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS THIS BAND MOVES
OVERHEAD...SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH-END CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.
AS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED FOR MANY DAYS...TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL
FOR MID-JULY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WITH
THE MAIN H8 COLD-CORE OF 4-5C PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...TEMPS
WERE A BIT TRICKY. LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE WI BORDER
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. DID INCREASE
TEMPS FAR EAST AS THEY SHOULD SEE SOME HEATING EARLY ON. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THEIR MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S AROUND LATE MORNING
BEFORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AND KEEP TEMPS STEADY...OR POSSIBLY
FALLING...THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER LOWER MI 12Z TUE WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PAST THE CWA AT THAT POINT. THE TROUGH AND LOW MOVE EAST
TUE AND NORTHEAST ON WED AWAY FROM THE AREA. PCPN WILL BE SLOWLY
PULLING OUT ON TUE AND BY WED...SHOULD BE DRY. NAM SHOWS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE SLOWLY DEPARTING ON TUE. GFS SHOWS ABOUT THE SAME THING
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF AND WILL USE A BLEND OF THEM FOR THIS
FORECAST.
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
WESTERN CWA AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO DRY THEN FOR THE FORECAST TUE NIGHT THROUGH
WED NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
12Z THU. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THEN.
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE FOR FRI. ON SAT...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA FORMS AN UPPER LOW IN IT THAT MOVES INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN 12Z SAT. A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM SITS OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR SUN THEN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHOWERY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING IN OVER THE NEXT 24HRS AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE BULK OF THE SHRA
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN...THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING AT KIWD/KCMX AND PERHAPS KSAW.
INITIALLY...LOW-LEVELS ARE DRY...SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
INTO THIS MORNING. DURING THE MORNING...MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY AT KIWD/KCMX...AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY THEN PREVAIL THRU THE
DAY INTO THE NIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT IFR CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP AT KIWD UNDER UPSLOPE FLOW IF STEADIER PCPN DEVELOPS. WITH
COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
SHRA ACTIVITY THERE TODAY. AT KSAW...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN THAT CIGS FALL TO MVFR. CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS MAY
FALL TO IFR NEAR OR JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO EXITS EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND EXTENDS A TROUGH WESTWARD ACROSS
LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING S TO SW FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
347 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND THE LOW WITH SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8C/KM AND DAYTIME
HEATING SUPPORTED SCT/ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS FROM NE MN INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NW WI. OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST WINDS PREVAILED OVER
UPPER MI WITH A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AROUND A 997 MB LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY.
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SAGS TOWARD THE NRN LAKES...EXPECT
SOME ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP INTO WRN UPPER MI
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE PCPN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH. MODERATE/STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR
CONV AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST BY 06Z AND EAST OVERNIGHT
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT PCPN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MON...MID 700-500 MB TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY (700 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -6C) FOR NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE
LAND AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
MUCAPE VALUES OF 400 J/KG MAY BE POSSIBLE...WITH ONLY SHALLOW/NARROW
CAPE EXPECTED...AND LACK OF LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON UPSTREAM...NO
MENTION OF TSRA WAS ADDED. MAX TEMPS WILL STAY WELL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM NW FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER LOWER MI 12Z TUE WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PAST THE CWA AT THAT POINT. THE TROUGH AND LOW MOVE EAST
TUE AND NORTHEAST ON WED AWAY FROM THE AREA. PCPN WILL BE SLOWLY
PULLING OUT ON TUE AND BY WED...SHOULD BE DRY. NAM SHOWS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE SLOWLY DEPARTING ON TUE. GFS SHOWS ABOUT THE SAME THING
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF AND WILL USE A BLEND OF THEM FOR THIS
FORECAST.
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
WESTERN CWA AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO DRY THEN FOR THE FORECAST TUE NIGHT THROUGH
WED NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
12Z THU. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THEN.
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE FOR FRI. ON SAT...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA FORMS AN UPPER LOW IN IT THAT MOVES INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN 12Z SAT. A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM SITS OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR SUN THEN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHOWERY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING IN OVER THE NEXT 24HRS AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE BULK OF THE SHRA
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN...THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING AT KIWD/KCMX AND PERHAPS KSAW.
INITIALLY...LOW-LEVELS ARE DRY...SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
INTO THIS MORNING. DURING THE MORNING...MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY AT KIWD/KCMX...AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY THEN PREVAIL THRU THE
DAY INTO THE NIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT IFR CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP AT KIWD UNDER UPSLOPE FLOW IF STEADIER PCPN DEVELOPS. WITH
COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
SHRA ACTIVITY THERE TODAY. AT KSAW...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN THAT CIGS FALL TO MVFR. CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS MAY
FALL TO IFR NEAR OR JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
EXPECT THAT THE GUSTY WNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW
20 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND THE LOW WITH SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8C/KM AND DAYTIME
HEATING SUPPORTED SCT/ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS FROM NE MN INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NW WI. OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST WINDS PREVAILED OVER
UPPER MI WITH A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AROUND A 997 MB LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY.
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SAGS TOWARD THE NRN LAKES...EXPECT
SOME ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP INTO WRN UPPER MI
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE PCPN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH. MODERATE/STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR
CONV AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST BY 06Z AND EAST OVERNIGHT
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT PCPN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MON...MID 700-500 MB TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY (700 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -6C) FOR NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE
LAND AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
MUCAPE VALUES OF 400 J/KG MAY BE POSSIBLE...WITH ONLY SHALLOW/NARROW
CAPE EXPECTED...AND LACK OF LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON UPSTREAM...NO
MENTION OF TSRA WAS ADDED. MAX TEMPS WILL STAY WELL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM NW FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
MAIN ISSUES THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB LOW WILL
BE CENTERED OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN AROUND 00Z/15. 1000-500MB RH
SHOWS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH CO-LOCATED DEEP LAYER
FORCING...AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING QCONV. THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SET UP
LINGERS ALONG WITH A GENERAL DIURNAL NATURE TO THE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH 18Z/15...REACHING THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THE
BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THAT
AREA...HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE U.P. TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WITH CONTINUED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. HEIGHT RISES WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE
WESTERN U.P. BY 18Z/15 ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE WESTERN U.P. TO BEGIN DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS 4C TO 5C.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
COULD STAY IN THE 40S THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE WELL
BELOW THE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHICH IS AROUND 77F/55F FOR
MAX AND MIN TEMP RESPECTIVELY FOR THE NWS OFFICE.
ADDITIONALLY...DROPPED THE TEMPERATURES A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS AS IF DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA
ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE OVER THE INLAND WEST. CLOUDS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER
THE FAR EAST HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS IN THAT AREA A BIT WARMER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...TREND FOR QUIET
WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA...REACHING NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NEAR THE U.P. BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS QUITE FAR OUT FOR SPECIFIC TIMING BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE EC HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
ITS TREND OF FLIP FLOPPING DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHOWERY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING IN OVER THE NEXT 24HRS AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE BULK OF THE SHRA
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN...THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING AT KIWD/KCMX AND PERHAPS KSAW.
INITIALLY...LOW-LEVELS ARE DRY...SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
INTO THIS MORNING. DURING THE MORNING...MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY AT KIWD/KCMX...AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY THEN PREVAIL THRU THE
DAY INTO THE NIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT IFR CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP AT KIWD UNDER UPSLOPE FLOW IF STEADIER PCPN DEVELOPS. WITH
COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
SHRA ACTIVITY THERE TODAY. AT KSAW...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN THAT CIGS FALL TO MVFR. CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS MAY
FALL TO IFR NEAR OR JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
EXPECT THAT THE GUSTY WNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW
20 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1146 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 925 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
Wavy frontal boundary stretches from southwest OK through southern
MO/IL into the Ohio Valley this evening. A very moist and moderately
unstable air mass spans both sides of the boundary with PWs around
1.80 inches and SBCAPE averaging around 1500 j/kg. Lift associated
with a 25 kt westerly LLJ and an upstream weak short wave trof
from western MO into southeast KS, continues to generate clusters
of showers and thunderstorms spanning both sides of the front. The
greatest increase in organization and coverage during the last
hour or so has been across southwest Missouri. This trend is
expected to continue through at least the remainder of the evening
as the boundary oozes southward with likely pops across the
eastern Ozarks into far southwest IL. Severe threat looks pretty
isolated with heavy downpours a greater concern. The more formidable
cold front will drop south to near the IA/MO border by 12z with a
threat of isolated showers and thunderstorms immediately ahead of
it.
Glass
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
Cold front has moved to a Effingham to St. Louis metro to Rolla
line at 20Z. Atmosphere is moderately unstable with MLCAPEs around
1000-1500 J/kg with an effective sheer of 35 kts. Still some
potential for a few severe thunderstorms capable of producing
primarily damaging winds with some large hail through the evening
hours given the amount of instability and shear in the SPC slight
risk area. Scattered thunderstorms have been developing over the
past couple of hours, primarily behind the front. A series of vort
maxes will continue to move across the area through early evening
per the RAP which will provide some modest ascent, but some
increase in overall coverage of thunderstorms should occur during
this evening over the southern and eastern parts the CWA when a
modest increase in 925-850mb moisture convergence occurs. This is
depicted well on the HRRR and NSSL-WRF simulated reflectivity.
These storms will shift south of the CWA overnight, though there
will be a slight chance of storms late tonight over northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois as a secondary cold front moves
south out of Iowa.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
(Monday through Wednesday)
The aforementioned secondary cold front will move southward through
the CWA during the day Monday as a stronger shortwave pivots
through the area. Expect additional scattered thunderstorms to
develop along front tomorrow because of this. There will be the
risk of a few severe thunderstorms along and ahead of the front
given forecast MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg and deep layer near
40kts. Storms will move out of the area by early Monday evening.
Monday should be out last warm day with 850mb temperatures between
14-18C. These temperatures will fall to between 8-12C on Tuesday
and Wednesday which should keep highs only in the lower to middle
70s. Lows on Tuesday morning look like they will fall into the
middle 50s in most areas because of decent radiational cooling and
dewpoints in the low 50s. Tuesday and Wednesday still look dry as we
will lie under subsidence in northwesterly flow aloft.
(Thursday through next Sunday)
GFS and ECMWF are still in relatively good agreement in showing that
the deep upper low that will be centered over the Great Lakes at
midweek will lift into eastern Canada on Thursday. At the same
time, another weaker upper low will be digging in behind it.
Expect a dry Thursday with the surface high bringing drier air
from the east with highs near 80 given the 850mb temperatures
around 12C. The GFS and ECMWF are in decent agreement on Friday
and Saturday that most of the precipitation associated with the
upper trough will stay to the south, so will keep the forecast
dry. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by next Sunday
as both models show a warm front moving northeast through the
area. 850mb temperatures will climb into the 17-19C range which
favor temperatures in the middle to upper 80s.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
Existing precip should be east of the terminals by 6Z. This precip
is expected to aid in fog formation overnight. The light winds and
recent rainfall will combine with a moist air mass to allow fog to
form late tonight after the clouds begin to clear. If the clouds
clear out sooner than expected...then the fog could be more dense
than currently expected. Any fog that forms should dsspt quickly
after sunrise. Attention then turns to a secondary cold front that
will drop through the region on Monday. There are some very isld
cells along the front across IA as of 0430Z. Models indicate fairly
decent coverage along the bndry by aftn...though think this may be
overdone. Given uncertainty in coverage...have held onto the VC
groups during the late morning into the aftn. Other than early
morning fog...terminals have a VFR fcst for the remainder of the prd
with winds aob 12kts.
Specifics for KSTL:
Sctrd TSTMs from this evng should be east of the terminal by 6Z.
There may be some high end MVFR fog that forms prior to sunrise
due to recent rainfall...light winds and a moist air mass. A
secondary cold front pushes thru during the aftn bringing another
chance for TSTMs. Given uncertainties with coverage...opted to
hold onto the VCTS group. Other than the possible MVFR fog early
Monday morning...the remainder of the fcst should be VFR with
winds aob 12kts.
2%
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1224 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NWRN ONTARIO WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WAS PRESENT OVER NRN MANITOBA WHILE A MID LEVEL JET
STREAK EXTENDED FROM NRN SASKATCHEWAN...SWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND
EAST INTO WISCONSIN. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER WESTERN UTAH
WITH SHORTWAVES NOTED OVER SRN IDAHO...AND OVER NERN COLORADO. WV
IMAGERY AS OF 2 PM CDT...AS A COUPLE OF AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FIRST WAS OVER NERN NEBRASKA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK...AND A SECOND OVER SERN
WYOMING INVOF OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE ENTERING WESTERN
WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MONTANA...INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...INTO SRN MINNESOTA. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WERE GUSTY OVER NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. ATTM...THE
COLDEST AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT...WAS JUST BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 76 AT
IMPERIAL TO 88 AT NORTH PLATTE.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...AN
UPDATED FORECAST IS APPROPRIATE. OTHERWISE...I USED A BLEND OF THE
CURRENT FORECAS...THE RAP13 AND THE HRRR FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
THE FRONT COMING DOWN LATE TONIGHT IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER AT LEAST A
FEW STORMS AS IT ENCOUNTERS DECENT MOISTURE AND AT LEAST
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECASTING CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DECENT FROPA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THIS EVENING...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
FORECAST AREA AS CONVECTION WILL RIDE SE FROM SERN WYOMING.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA IN THE
VICINITY OF A JET STREAK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
CANADA. LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z MONDAY. AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS. ATTM...THE BEST CHANCES HOWEVER
WILL BE IN THE EASTERN CWA...WHERE STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL RESIDE. THIS FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT
WILL BE FORCED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
DRY CONDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 IN THE
NORTHEAST...TO AROUND 80 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. NAM HAS A
BETTER HANDLE ON ACTUAL WEATHER THIS MORNING. GFS SEEMS TO BE OVER
DONE WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TERM AS COOL
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS DRAWS COLDER AIR SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK. CONTRAST
BETWEEN THIS COLD LOW AND WARM UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS OKLAHOMA MONDAY
NIGHT AND PILE UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES IN WYOMING
AND COLORADO. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST AS COOL DRY AIR FILTERS INTO NORTHERN PLAINS. NAM IS HINTING
AT STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING IN UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
THE PANHANDLE. THIS WOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. STILL
USING ENSEMBLES WITH ZERO STANDARD DEVIATION LOWS JUST ABOVE
RECORDS. RECORD LOWS FOR NORTH PLATTE IN THE MONTH OF JULY...ONE
50 AND ALL OF THE REST IN THE 40S AND FOR VALENTINE 2 RECORD LOWS
IN THE 30S THE REST IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 55
NEAR IMPERIAL TO 48 AT VALENTINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...MIXING AND DEWPOINT. AS UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BOUNDARY TO THE
WEST WILL MOVE EAST AND PLACE SOUTHWEST ZONES WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
HAVE GONE WITH SHOWERS AND ISO T. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S WITH MORE CLOUD COVER BETTER MIXED
LAYER IN RETURN FLOW AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WITH AREAS OF SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S. PRECIPITATION
ENDING WEDNESDAY EVENING AS STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND IN THE 80S SATURDAY. INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE LATEST RADAR COMPOSITE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED IN THE RAPID UPDATE MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING.
HOWEVER...THEIR COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXPECTED EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SO OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT ANY ONE SITE.
STILL...AS THINGS EVOLVE IT MAY BECOME NECESSARY TO INCLUDE TS OR
VCTS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR LBF AND/OR VTN IF A PROJECTED
PATH IS TOWARD EITHER TERMINAL.
ALSO...ONE SHORT TERM MODEL IS SIGNALING FG/BR AT LBF 10-13Z. OTHER
SHORT RANGE PROJECTIONS DO NOT INDICATE FG/BR SO...FOR THE TIME
BEING...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST FOR LBF.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
417 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
250 AM UPDATE...
AFT WIDESPREAD SVR WX TDA WILL CATCH A QUICK BREATH BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND STARTS THIS AFTN. H5 LOWS ARE PINWHEELING ARND EACH OTHER ACRS
CANADA LEAVING A MEAN TROF FOR AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CWA RMNS
IN A SOUPY AIRMASS WITH JUST A 1-3 DEGREE DWPT DEPRESSION. LGT WINDS
AND CLRNG SKIES HV SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVR MOST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG DIFFUSE BNDRY FM NEW ENGLAND BACK INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE. 00Z NAM HAS
A HORRIBLE HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDS AND IS ALREADY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
CONVECTION ACRS SRN PA WHEREAS LATEST RUC HAS BETTER HANDLE. HV RMVD
POPS ACRS NEPA THRU 12Z WITH JUST ISOLD SHOWERS THRU 15Z AND THEN
INCRS TO LKLY TWD 18Z AS NEXT WV APPCHS FM THE SOUTHWEST. CAPES
EXPECTED TO RUN THE GAMUT FM ARND 100 (RAP) TO ~ 1000 (GFS AND LOCAL
WRF) ACRS SERN ZONES THIS AFTN. THIS DEPENDS ON T/TD VALUES BEING
HANDLED BY THE MODELS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GFS HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON SFC T/TD FIELDS WITH RUC BEING COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH
WITH TD VALUES AT 18Z OVR NEPA IN THE LWR 50S. HV SEEN THIS RECENTLY
IN THE RUC/RAP FIELDS WITH BLYR CONDS BEING TOO DRY, THUS DO NOT
TRUST THIS AND WL TEND MORE TWD GFS. HWVR, THINK GFS IS TOO BULLISH
ON HIGH TEMPS ACRS NEPA AND WL LEAN MORE TWD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS, WITH CAPE VALUES POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 800-900 J/KG OVR
NEPA FOR THIS AFTN.
THAT BEING SAID, HV GONE WITH LKLY THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A MONTICELLO TO SCRANTON LINE THIS AFTN. SHEAR WL NOT BE AS WELL
ORGANIZED TDA THUS THINKING THAT SVR STORMS WL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD,
THO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE HVY RAINFALL WITH
PW VALUES OF 1-2 SD AND POSSIBLY SLOW-MVG STORMS. THIS THREAT AREA
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL YDA WITH A STRIPE
OF 1-3 INCH STORM TOTAL QPF FM NRN BRADFORD THRU SRN BROOME INTO
EXTRM NRN SULLIVAN CNTY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THESE
AREAS THIS AFTN, THUS WL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FEEL THAT
THIS IS MORE WORTHY OF A SHORT-FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AFTER
CONVECTION DVLPS.
IN ADDITION TO NEPA AFTR A BRIEF BUBBLE HIGH TAKES SHAPE ACRS NRN
ZONES THIS MRNG, MODELS ARE HINTING A MESO-LOW DVLPS ACRS THE
FINGER LKS THIS AFTN. THIS WL LKLY LEAD TO AN ADDNL AREA OF LKLY
CONVECTION, THO NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE SVR AT THIS TIME AND WITH
PW VALUES ARND 1.5 INCHES LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING STRONG H2 SPEED MAX
LIFTING ACRS SRN CANADA THIS AFTN, WHICH WUD PLACE CWA IN
FAVORABLE RRQ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
AIRMASS WL CONTINUE TO BE SOGGY WITH CWA SITTING WELL INTO WMSECTOR
TONIGHT. SFC LOPRES CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR LK SUPERIOR WL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SET UP SHOP OVR LK HURON/GEORGIAN BAY AREA BY
06Z. THIS WL KEEP WVS RIDING UP IN SRLY FLOW AFFECTING THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER H2 SPEED MAX PROGGED TO IMPACT AREA MVG TWD AREA FM THE NW
BY 12Z. THIS WL SERVE TO EXPAND CHC THUNDER OVR MOST OF CWA AND
COUPLED WITH S/WVS RIDING NORTH ARND BASE OF UL TROF WL BE TUFF TO
PINPOINT WHERE BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION WL BE. THUS WL KEEP JUST GNRL
THUNDER IN AT THIS TIME.
SFC LOW WL MV UP INTO SRN ON AND QC LATE TUE AFTN AND OCCLUDE OUT AS
IT DOES SO. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON BNDRY MVG THRU WITH 00Z
GFS CONTINUING TO BE FASTER MVG DRY AIR INTO WRN ZONES AFT 18Z
TUESDAY WHEREAS GFS IS ABOUT 6 HRS QUICKER. INTERESTING THAT 00Z
EURO IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE NAM IS WITH DRIER AIR NOT MVG IN UNTIL
CLOSER TO 06Z WED. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT EURO IS SLOWEST OF
ALL MODELS TO EJECT H5 LOW OUT. WL SIDE MORE TWD NAM WHICH IS THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN WITH MVMNT OF FROPA.
BNDRY MVS THRU CWA TUE NGT TAKING PCPN WITH IT DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.
THIS BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH IT WITH MINS DIPPING INTO THE
50S BY WED MRNG. UL TROF WL TAKE ITS SWEET TIME MVG THRU CWA WITH
SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS WED AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
THE BIG STORY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPS, AND A POSSIBLE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DURING THIS PERIOD A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST BUT A POP UP
SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVER CENTRAL
TX, WE AREN`T QUITE OUT OF THE WOODS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS WE
HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AS THIS TROF MOVES EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT
MOISTURE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TIMING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOISTURE GETS IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE OLDER RUNS OF THE
GFS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO, BRINGING IN SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE EURO NOT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
WHATEVER THE CASE IT DOES APPEAR CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND ITSELF. ON THE FRONT END I PUT IN JUST A 20%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NEPA FRIDAY BUT SAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SAT/SUN.
IF THE PATTERN HOLDS CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED THIS
WEEKEND BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WDSPRD LIFR THIS MRNG WITH MOST SITES BLO ALT MINS DUE TO FOG AND
CIGS. ONLY XCPTN SHUD BE SYR...BUT MVFR IS PSBL THERE DUE TO BR
TWDS DAYBREAK. XPCT IFR CIGS TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR RNG THIS
MRNG...THEN IMPRV TO VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG. POTNL FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTN DUE TO APRCHNG S/WV`S...ALTHO AVP COULD SEE ACTIVITY BY
EARLY AFTN. FOR NOW PLAYED PROB30`S THIS AFTN FOR -SHRA ACRS CNTRL
NY...WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT AVP. THIS EVNG...XPCT MVFR TO DVLP
IN BR AND PSBLY CIGS. WINDS LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED/THUR/FRI..,VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
308 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
250 AM UPDATE...
AFT WIDESPREAD SVR WX TDA WILL CATCH A QUICK BREATH BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND STARTS THIS AFTN. H5 LOWS ARE PINWHEELING ARND EACH OTHER ACRS
CANADA LEAVING A MEAN TROF FOR AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CWA RMNS
IN A SOUPY AIRMASS WITH JUST A 1-3 DEGREE DWPT DEPRESSION. LGT WINDS
AND CLRNG SKIES HV SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVR MOST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG DIFFUSE BNDRY FM NEW ENGLAND BACK INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE. 00Z NAM HAS
A HORRIBLE HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDS AND IS ALREADY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
CONVECTION ACRS SRN PA WHEREAS LATEST RUC HAS BETTER HANDLE. HV RMVD
POPS ACRS NEPA THRU 12Z WITH JUST ISOLD SHOWERS THRU 15Z AND THEN
INCRS TO LKLY TWD 18Z AS NEXT WV APPCHS FM THE SOUTHWEST. CAPES
EXPECTED TO RUN THE GAMUT FM ARND 100 (RAP) TO ~ 1000 (GFS AND LOCAL
WRF) ACRS SERN ZONES THIS AFTN. THIS DEPENDS ON T/TD VALUES BEING
HANDLED BY THE MODELS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GFS HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON SFC T/TD FIELDS WITH RUC BEING COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH
WITH TD VALUES AT 18Z OVR NEPA IN THE LWR 50S. HV SEEN THIS RECENTLY
IN THE RUC/RAP FIELDS WITH BLYR CONDS BEING TOO DRY, THUS DO NOT
TRUST THIS AND WL TEND MORE TWD GFS. HWVR, THINK GFS IS TOO BULLISH
ON HIGH TEMPS ACRS NEPA AND WL LEAN MORE TWD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS, WITH CAPE VALUES POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 800-900 J/KG OVR
NEPA FOR THIS AFTN.
THAT BEING SAID, HV GONE WITH LKLY THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A MONTICELLO TO SCRANTON LINE THIS AFTN. SHEAR WL NOT BE AS WELL
ORGANIZED TDA THUS THINKING THAT SVR STORMS WL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD,
THO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE HVY RAINFALL WITH
PW VALUES OF 1-2 SD AND POSSIBLY SLOW-MVG STORMS. THIS THREAT AREA
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL YDA WITH A STRIPE
OF 1-3 INCH STORM TOTAL QPF FM NRN BRADFORD THRU SRN BROOME INTO
EXTRM NRN SULLIVAN CNTY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THESE
AREAS THIS AFTN, THUS WL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FEEL THAT
THIS IS MORE WORTHY OF A SHORT-FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AFTER
CONVECTION DVLPS.
IN ADDITION TO NEPA AFTR A BRIEF BUBBLE HIGH TAKES SHAPE ACRS NRN
ZONES THIS MRNG, MODELS ARE HINTING A MESO-LOW DVLPS ACRS THE
FINGER LKS THIS AFTN. THIS WL LKLY LEAD TO AN ADDNL AREA OF LKLY
CONVECTION, THO NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE SVR AT THIS TIME AND WITH
PW VALUES ARND 1.5 INCHES LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING STRONG H2 SPEED MAX
LIFTING ACRS SRN CANADA THIS AFTN, WHICH WUD PLACE CWA IN
FAVORABLE RRQ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...BOUNDARY WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AREA WILL
REMAIN OVER EASTERN PA AND BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL NY BUT LIKELY FOR NE PA, SRN CATSKILLS AND LOCAL
BGM AREA. BASED ON SVR WX INDICES A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH SVR
LIMITS ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY RAIN AS CONVECTION
PERSIST OVER NE PA AND AIRMASS REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH PWATS AROUND
2 INCHES.
MONDAY NIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INITIAL BOUNDARY THROUGH AND
MAIN SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TUESDAY...DEEP H5 TROF MOVES INTO NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS SFC
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FA FROM I81 WEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE FA WHERE MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL HUNDRED
J/KG. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC POPS THROUGH PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF SETTLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE ERN CWA TUE
EVENING PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS ON WED
WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
THE BIG STORY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPS, AND A POSSIBLE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DURING THIS PERIOD A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST BUT A POP UP
SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVER CENTRAL
TX, WE AREN`T QUITE OUT OF THE WOODS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS WE
HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AS THIS TROF MOVES EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT
MOISTURE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TIMING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOISTURE GETS IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE OLDER RUNS OF THE
GFS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO, BRINGING IN SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE EURO NOT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
WHATEVER THE CASE IT DOES APPEAR CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND ITSELF. ON THE FRONT END I PUT IN JUST A 20%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NEPA FRIDAY BUT SAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SAT/SUN.
IF THE PATTERN HOLDS CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED THIS
WEEKEND BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WDSPRD LIFR THIS MRNG WITH MOST SITES BLO ALT MINS DUE TO FOG AND
CIGS. ONLY XCPTN SHUD BE SYR...BUT MVFR IS PSBL THERE DUE TO BR
TWDS DAYBREAK. XPCT IFR CIGS TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR RNG THIS
MRNG...THEN IMPRV TO VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG. POTNL FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTN DUE TO APRCHNG S/WV`S...ALTHO AVP COULD SEE ACTIVITY BY
EARLY AFTN. FOR NOW PLAYED PROB30`S THIS AFTN FOR -SHRA ACRS CNTRL
NY...WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT AVP. THIS EVNG...XPCT MVFR TO DVLP
IN BR AND PSBLY CIGS. WINDS LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED/THUR/FRI..,VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
302 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
250 AM UPDATE...
AFT WIDESPREAD SVR WX TDA WILL CATCH A QUICK BREATH BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND STARTS THIS AFTN. H5 LOWS ARE PINWHEELING ARND EACH OTHER ACRS
CANADA LEAVING A MEAN TROF FOR AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CWA RMNS
IN A SOUPY AIRMASS WITH JUST A 1-3 DEGREE DWPT DEPRESSION. LGT WINDS
AND CLRNG SKIES HV SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVR MOST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG DIFFUSE BNDRY FM NEW ENGLAND BACK INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE. 00Z NAM HAS
A HORRIBLE HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDS AND IS ALREADY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
CONVECTION ACRS SRN PA WHEREAS LATEST RUC HAS BETTER HANDLE. HV RMVD
POPS ACRS NEPA THRU 12Z WITH JUST ISOLD SHOWERS THRU 15Z AND THEN
INCRS TO LKLY TWD 18Z AS NEXT WV APPCHS FM THE SOUTHWEST. CAPES
EXPECTED TO RUN THE GAMUT FM ARND 100 (RAP) TO ~ 1000 (GFS AND LOCAL
WRF) ACRS SERN ZONES THIS AFTN. THIS DEPENDS ON T/TD VALUES BEING
HANDLED BY THE MODELS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GFS HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON SFC T/TD FIELDS WITH RUC BEING COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH
WITH TD VALUES AT 18Z OVR NEPA IN THE LWR 50S. HV SEEN THIS RECENTLY
IN THE RUC/RAP FIELDS WITH BLYR CONDS BEING TOO DRY, THUS DO NOT
TRUST THIS AND WL TEND MORE TWD GFS. HWVR, THINK GFS IS TOO BULLISH
ON HIGH TEMPS ACRS NEPA AND WL LEAN MORE TWD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS, WITH CAPE VALUES POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 800-900 J/KG OVR
NEPA FOR THIS AFTN.
THAT BEING SAID, HV GONE WITH LKLY THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A MONTICELLO TO SCRANTON LINE THIS AFTN. SHEAR WL NOT BE AS WELL
ORGANIZED TDA THUS THINKING THAT SVR STORMS WL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD,
THO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE HVY RAINFALL WITH
PW VALUES OF 1-2 SD AND POSSIBLY SLOW-MVG STORMS. THIS THREAT AREA
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL YDA WITH A STRIPE
OF 1-3 INCH STORM TOTAL QPF FM NRN BRADFORD THRU SRN BROOME INTO
EXTRM NRN SULLIVAN CNTY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THESE
AREAS THIS AFTN, THUS WL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FEEL THAT
THIS IS MORE WORTHY OF A SHORT-FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AFTER
CONVECTION DVLPS.
IN ADDITION TO NEPA AFTR A BRIEF BUBBLE HIGH TAKES SHAPE ACRS NRN
ZONES THIS MRNG, MODELS ARE HINTING A MESO-LOW DVLPS ACRS THE
FINGER LKS THIS AFTN. THIS WL LKLY LEAD TO AN ADDNL AREA OF LKLY
CONVECTION, THO NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE SVR AT THIS TIME AND WITH
PW VALUES ARND 1.5 INCHES LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...BOUNDARY WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AREA WILL
REMAIN OVER EASTERN PA AND BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL NY BUT LIKELY FOR NE PA, SRN CATSKILLS AND LOCAL
BGM AREA. BASED ON SVR WX INDICES A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH SVR
LIMITS ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY RAIN AS CONVECTION
PERSIST OVER NE PA AND AIRMASS REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH PWATS AROUND
2 INCHES.
MONDAY NIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INITIAL BOUNDARY THROUGH AND
MAIN SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TUESDAY...DEEP H5 TROF MOVES INTO NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS SFC
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FA FROM I81 WEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE FA WHERE MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL HUNDRED
J/KG. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC POPS THROUGH PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF SETTLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE ERN CWA TUE
EVENING PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS ON WED
WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
THE BIG STORY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPS, AND A POSSIBLE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DURING THIS PERIOD A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST BUT A POP UP
SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVER CENTRAL
TX, WE AREN`T QUITE OUT OF THE WOODS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS WE
HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AS THIS TROF MOVES EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT
MOISTURE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TIMING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOISTURE GETS IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE OLDER RUNS OF THE
GFS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO, BRINGING IN SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE EURO NOT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
WHATEVER THE CASE IT DOES APPEAR CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND ITSELF. ON THE FRONT END I PUT IN JUST A 20%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NEPA FRIDAY BUT SAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SAT/SUN.
IF THE PATTERN HOLDS CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED THIS
WEEKEND BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WDSPRD LIFR THIS MRNG WITH MOST SITES BLO ALT MINS DUE TO FOG AND
CIGS. ONLY XCPTN SHUD BE SYR...BUT MVFR IS PSBL THERE DUE TO BR
TWDS DAYBREAK. XPCT IFR CIGS TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR RNG THIS
MRNG...THEN IMPRV TO VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG. POTNL FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTN DUE TO APRCHNG S/WV`S...ALTHO AVP COULD SEE ACTIVITY BY
EARLY AFTN. FOR NOW PLAYED PROB30`S THIS AFTN FOR -SHRA ACRS CNTRL
NY...WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT AVP. THIS EVNG...XPCT MVFR TO DVLP
IN BR AND PSBLY CIGS. WINDS LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED/THUR/FRI..,VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
253 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
250 AM UPDATE...
AFT WIDESPREAD SVR WX TDA WILL CATCH A QUICK BREATH BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND STARTS THIS AFTN. H5 LOWS ARE PINWHEELING ARND EACH OTHER ACRS
CANADA LEAVING A MEAN TROF FOR AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CWA RMNS
IN A SOUPY AIRMASS WITH JUST A 1-3 DEGREE DWPT DEPRESSION. LGT WINDS
AND CLRNG SKIES HV SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVR MOST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG DIFFUSE BNDRY FM NEW ENGLAND BACK INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE. 00Z NAM HAS
A HORRIBLE HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDS AND IS ALREADY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
CONVECTION ACRS SRN PA WHEREAS LATEST RUC HAS BETTER HANDLE. HV RMVD
POPS ACRS NEPA THRU 12Z WITH JUST ISOLD SHOWERS THRU 15Z AND THEN
INCRS TO LKLY TWD 18Z AS NEXT WV APPCHS FM THE SOUTHWEST. CAPES
EXPECTED TO RUN THE GAMUT FM ARND 100 (RAP) TO ~ 1000 (GFS AND LOCAL
WRF) ACRS SERN ZONES THIS AFTN. THIS DEPENDS ON T/TD VALUES BEING
HANDLED BY THE MODELS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GFS HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON SFC T/TD FIELDS WITH RUC BEING COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH
WITH TD VALUES AT 18Z OVR NEPA IN THE LWR 50S. HV SEEN THIS RECENTLY
IN THE RUC/RAP FIELDS WITH BLYR CONDS BEING TOO DRY, THUS DO NOT
TRUST THIS AND WL TEND MORE TWD GFS. HWVR, THINK GFS IS TOO BULLISH
ON HIGH TEMPS ACRS NEPA AND WL LEAN MORE TWD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS, WITH CAPE VALUES POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 800-900 J/KG OVR
NEPA FOR THIS AFTN.
THAT BEING SAID, HV GONE WITH LKLY THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A MONTICELLO TO SCRANTON LINE THIS AFTN. SHEAR WL NOT BE AS WELL
ORGANIZED TDA THUS THINKING THAT SVR STORMS WL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD,
THO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE HVY RAINFALL WITH
PW VALUES OF 1-2 SD AND POSSIBLY SLOW-MVG STORMS. THIS THREAT AREA
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL YDA WITH A STRIPE
OF 1-3 INCH STORM TOTAL QPF FM NRN BRADFORD THRU SRN BROOME INTO
EXTRM NRN SULLIVAN CNTY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THESE
AREAS THIS AFTN, THUS WL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FEEL THAT
THIS IS MORE WORTHY OF A SHORT-FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AFTER
CONVECTION DVLPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...BOUNDARY WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AREA WILL
REMAIN OVER EASTERN PA AND BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL NY BUT LIKELY FOR NE PA, SRN CATSKILLS AND LOCAL
BGM AREA. BASED ON SVR WX INDICES A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH SVR
LIMITS ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY RAIN AS CONVECTION
PERSIST OVER NE PA AND AIRMASS REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH PWATS AROUND
2 INCHES.
MONDAY NIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INITIAL BOUNDARY THROUGH AND
MAIN SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TUESDAY...DEEP H5 TROF MOVES INTO NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS SFC
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FA FROM I81 WEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE FA WHERE MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL HUNDRED
J/KG. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC POPS THROUGH PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF SETTLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE ERN CWA TUE
EVENING PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS ON WED
WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
THE BIG STORY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPS, AND A POSSIBLE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DURING THIS PERIOD A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST BUT A POP UP
SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVER CENTRAL
TX, WE AREN`T QUITE OUT OF THE WOODS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS WE
HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AS THIS TROF MOVES EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT
MOISTURE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TIMING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOISTURE GETS IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE OLDER RUNS OF THE
GFS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO, BRINGING IN SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE EURO NOT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
WHATEVER THE CASE IT DOES APPEAR CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND ITSELF. ON THE FRONT END I PUT IN JUST A 20%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NEPA FRIDAY BUT SAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SAT/SUN.
IF THE PATTERN HOLDS CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED THIS
WEEKEND BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WDSPRD LIFR THIS MRNG WITH MOST SITES BLO ALT MINS DUE TO FOG AND
CIGS. ONLY XCPTN SHUD BE SYR...BUT MVFR IS PSBL THERE DUE TO BR
TWDS DAYBREAK. XPCT IFR CIGS TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR RNG THIS
MRNG...THEN IMPRV TO VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG. POTNL FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTN DUE TO APRCHNG S/WV`S...ALTHO AVP COULD SEE ACTIVITY BY
EARLY AFTN. FOR NOW PLAYED PROB30`S THIS AFTN FOR -SHRA ACRS CNTRL
NY...WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT AVP. THIS EVNG...XPCT MVFR TO DVLP
IN BR AND PSBLY CIGS. WINDS LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED/THUR/FRI..,VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
103 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. MAIN CHANGED FOR THIS EARLY MORNING
FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO MODIFY SKY COVER GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE AND NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. DID EXTEND CLOUD
COVER BACK WEST JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. DID KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AS THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES BRUSHING THIS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY AT THIS
TIME REMAINS NORTH OF BRANDON MANITOBA INTO FAR NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. MOISTURE AROUND AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
WESTERN ONTARIO IS PUSHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CEILINGS FROM MINOT AND JAMESTOWN NORTH TO
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL HAVE
NOT MATERIALIZED AND WILL DROP OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. DID KEEP A
SMALL CHANCE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS BETTER MOISTURE
WRAPS INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. BASED ON 18 UTC NAM/GFS 925 AND 850 MB
MOISTURE PROFILES...BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
ABNORMALLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FOR
MONDAY.
AS OF 20 UTC...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS
FAR WESTERN ONTARIO...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT
WILL BE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PRIMARILY EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PERHAPS BRUSHING THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH NAEFS/GEFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TO AVOID THE BUILT IN
CLIMATOLOGY OF THE STATISTICAL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. JAMESTOWN HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SETTING A RECORD LOW HIGH
TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY. SHOWN BELOW IS A FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE TABLE FOR MONDAY JULY 14.
LOCATION........FORECAST.......RECORD
BISMARCK.........67............57 1884
MINOT............66............62 1958
JAMESTOWN........66............68 1937
DICKINSON........68............60 1958
WILLISTON........69............63 1912
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
THERE IS GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THAT THE DEEP CYCLONE OVER
ONTARIO WILL LIFT OUT WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW RIDGING TO REPLACE CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. AFTER THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON
MONDAY...A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL/GFS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES ALSO
ADVERTISE A SHIFT FROM THE SEMI-PERMANENT NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
ONTARIO UPPER LOWS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CONUS AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD DIRECT A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS LARGE UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF EACH SHORTWAVE...BUT CONSENSUS ON THE STRENGTH
AND POSITION OF THE BROAD LOW DIRECTING THOSE SHORTWAVES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
AS A RESULT OF THAT CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJMS AND POSSIBLY KMOT 10-15Z
WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP CEILINGS LOW VFR FOR
NOW AND WILL ADJUST IF NEEDED WITH LATER UPDATES. WINDS INCREASE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS SUNDAY...MORE LIKE 15-25
KNOTS EAST...KJMS...10-15 KNOTS CENTRAL AND WEST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
232 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC IS CURRENTLY SHOWING CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY ENTERING THE NW
CORNER OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST BEFORE 12Z. NAM SHOWS TWO DISTINCT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH THIS APPROACHING
SYSTEM. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT, AND THEN WE GET THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, MIDDLE
TENNESSEE REMAINS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. BUT HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT, WITH 24-HOUR QPF FROM 12Z TODAY THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN PARTS OF EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
AFTERWARDS, LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS A
COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 91 71 81 59 / 60 80 30 10
CLARKSVILLE 89 66 79 56 / 60 70 20 05
CROSSVILLE 85 67 77 55 / 60 60 70 10
COLUMBIA 92 71 83 59 / 50 80 30 10
LAWRENCEBURG 92 71 84 59 / 50 90 30 10
WAVERLY 90 67 80 56 / 60 80 20 05
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...EXACT INITIATING TIMING SHWRS/TSTMS & IMPACTS TAF SITES/
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. SEVERAL TAF ADMS POSSIBLE 14/12Z-15/06Z.
14/06Z-14/12Z...VFR WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN CI...EXPECT FOR TEMPO MVFR FOG
VSBYS CSV 14/09Z-14/13Z PER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING EFFECTS. PER
APPROACHING SFC FRONTS...ONE OF WHICH MIGHT WASH OUT ACROSS MID STATE AFTER
14/18Z PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM...AND A MORE ROBUST SFC FRONT
APPROACHING AND MOVING INTO MID STATE BY 15/06Z...WITH HIGH PRECIP WATER
VALUES PER AMBLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POTENTIAL...AT LEST DIURNAL INSTABILITY
INITIATED AND SUPPORTED...AND LIFT PROVIDED BY DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...ALL POINTING TO EVOLUTION
OF HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS MID STATE 14/12Z-15/06Z. SHORT TERM MODELS
NOW SHOWING SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS OHIO RIVER VALLEY APPROACHING 14/06Z MAY IMPACT
CKV/BNA SOONER THEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AND THUS MOVED UP IMPACT TIMES FROM
00Z TAF ISSUANCE. THUS...GENERALLY ADDRESSED...FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...A
PROGRESSION FORECAST FROM VFR VCTS REMARKS...WITH SOME TEMPO MVFR VSBYS PERIODS
IN BETWEEN...AS THERE MAY BE TWO ROUNDS OF SHWRS/TSTMS THAT MOVE THRU MID
STATE...BUT STILL EXPECTING MAIN IMPACTS OF SHWRS/TSTMS BETWEEN 14/20Z-15/06Z
WITH TEMPO HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS PLATEAU 15/01Z-15/06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/
UPDATE...
AT 03Z...THE MID STATE WAS FAIR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. DAY SHIFT FORECAST
AGAIN WAS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH OBSERVATIONS SO DID NOT FEEL NEED TO
DO MUCH IN THE WAY OF GRID EDITING.
REGARDING TOMORROWS STORM SEVERITY AND TIMING...SEEMS TO BE QUITE
A BIT OF VARIATION IN HOW TO HANDLE THE INITIAL WEAKER FRONT
PASSAGE TOMORROW MORNING. THE RUC13 MODEL WOULD INDICATE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH THE NAM/GFS
SIDING FOR MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ORIENTED ALONG THE FRONT AND THE
THIN SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WITH DIURNAL
HEATING NOT YET A PLAYER BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z WHEN THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO ARRIVE...TEND TO AGREE WITH THE A MORE FRONT CENTRIC
COVERAGE PATTERN. BASED OFF THE CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...WOULD THINK THAT HYPOTHESIS WOULD HOLD WATER.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN KY TO
SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND REACH THE TN/KY
BORDER BY AROUND 12Z. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...MAYBE UP TO THE 40 MPH
RANGE...BUT DO NOT THINK AT THIS TIME THOSE STORMS WOULD WARRANT
SEVERE CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES...HEAVY DOWNPOURS APPEAR LIKELY.
NOW...A SECOND...MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID
STATE LATE IN THE EVENING TOMORROW AND IT IS WHERE THE FOCUS IS
FOR SEVERE POSSIBILITY. WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS PROGGING THE
FRONT TO ENTER THE NW COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT TOMORROW
NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE TIMEFRAME IN WHICH STORM SEVERITY APPEARS
TO BE AT ITS HIGHEST. ALTHOUGH...WITH THE FORCING ARRIVING AFTER
WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS VERY MOIST ALL THE
WAY UP THE COLUMN...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS A BIT IN
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOES NOT DESTABILIZE AS
ADVERTISED DUE TO THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONSEQUENT
RAINFALL. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT MAIN CONCERN IS VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALIZED
AREAS. THE SECONDARY THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH HAIL BEING A RATHER
LOW RISK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...EXACT INITIATING TIMING SHWRS/TSTMS & IMPACTS TAF SITES/
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. SEVERAL TAF ADMS POSSIBLE 14/16Z-14/24Z. 14/00Z-
14/14Z...VFR WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN CI...EXPECT FOR TEMPO MVFR FOG VSBYS
CSV 14/09Z-14/13Z PER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING EFFECTS. PER APPROACHING
SFC FRONTS...ONE OF WHICH MIGHT WASH OUT ACROSS MID STATE AFTER 14/18Z
PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM...AND A MORE ROBUST SFC FRONT APPROACHING
MID STATE BY 00Z...WITH HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES PER AMBLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POTENTIAL...DIURNAL INSTABILITY...AND LIFT PROVIDED BY DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...ALL POINTING
TO EVOLUTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MID STATE 14/16Z-14/24Z. HAVE ADDRESSED
WITH A PROGRESSION FORECAST FROM VFR VCTS REMARKS TO MVFR VSBYS VFR/MVFR
CEILINGS SHWRS/TSTMS MAINLY 14/20Z-14/24Z WITH TEMPO HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 137 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...WARM, UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A SLOW-
MOVING COLD FRONT COMING TOGETHER NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
SCATTERED CELLS ARE DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU, AND ALSO TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. POP`S WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY TOMORROW AS THE FRONT
EDGES INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE SPC HAS KEPT US UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AND THIS IS
POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING ONLY MODEST
INSTABILITY SETTING UP TOMORROW WITH NO PRONOUNCED DRY LAYERS. SO
THIS EVENT, GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT, MAY MORPH
INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN SYSTEM. THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
COINCIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM (AND THE WARM FRONT COMING THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND) ARE WITHIN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LY FAVORED RANGE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FOR THE NEXT 240 HOURS, SO LOOK FOR A
SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE AFTER MONDAY NIGHT`S FROPA.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
853 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
REFLECTING INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN MONSOON FLOW. CURRENT
RADAR DEPICTS SOME LIGHT RETURNS MOVING WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE HRRR PRECIP FIELDS SOMEWHAT
CAPTURE THIS AREA AND TRACK IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FROM MONTEREY BAY TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF SCATTERED SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CURRENTLY NO LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED
IN THE REGION. TT AND MUCAPE VALUES ARE VERY MARGINAL SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT NOT ANTICIPATING LIGHTNING TODAY. OTHER
UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT EXTREMELY WARM CONDITIONS IN THE
HILLS. MANY AREAS ABOVE 1500 FEET ELEVATION BARELY DROPPED BELOW
80 DEGREES LAST NIGHT. 12Z KOAK SOUNDING SHOWS THIS WELL WITH A
WARM NOSE AROUND 925MB OF +31C.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT MONDAY...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER NEVADA THIS MORNING WITH VERY
WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THIS WARM AIR MASS
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S THIS MORNING IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...THE
MARINE LAYER IS BELOW 1000 FT AT THIS HOUR ALONG WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS HAS KEPT STRATUS FROM FORMING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OVER HALF MOON
BAY AND PORTIONS OF THE MONTEREY PENINSULA.
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OFF THE SURFACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY WARM BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING MOST LOCATIONS TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. MEANWHILE...AS THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND COULD HELP INHIBIT MAXIMUM WARMING. CONTINUE TO
BELIEVE THE NEEDED LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO PRODUCE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. HAVING SAID THAT...IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY
AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES GIVEN THE INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.
SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE MARINE INFLUENCE TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
STRATUS TO SPREAD INLAND. IN ADDITION...A DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT
WILL RETURN AND SCOUR OUT THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUD PATCHES ON THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT THIS MORNING. AREA SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIGHT W-NW BUT THERE IS A DEVELOPING SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME ON S-SE MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS BAY AREA TO SOCAL.
MID LEVEL SATURATED AIR CAN BECOME QUICKLY UNSTABLE IF SUFFICIENT
LIFT IS PRESENT AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HARD TO
SAY WHAT WILL BECOME OF THIS LAYER AS THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OFFSETTING THE INSTABILITY. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH ABOUT FORECAST TO PLACE VCSH OR VCTS IN 12Z TAFS BUT PILOTS
AND DISPATCHERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE CHANGEABLE WEATHER
TODAY INCLUDING OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PATCHY IFR EARLY. KMRY REPORTS 400
FEET BUT IT`S THIN...WE CAN SEE THE MOON THROUGH THE LOW CLOUD
COVER. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 08:41 AM PDT MONDAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NORTH OF POINT
REYES. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1043 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1030 AM CDT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BECOMING MORE CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH
SEVERAL FEATURES IN THE AREA TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT. FIRST IS AN
UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS BEEN ONGOING ALONG THE NE/KS
AND IA/MO BORDERS THE PAST FEW HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. SEVERAL SURFACE FEATURES ARE ALSO IN THE AREA. FIRST IS
A MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY THAT RUNS FROM NEAR GALESBURG INTO THE
SOUTHERN CHICAGO METRO AREA WITH UPPER 60S/70 DEWPOINTS TO THE
SOUTH AND AROUND 60 NORTH. A COOL FRONT HAS ALSO BEEN SAGGING
SOUTHWARD AND APPEARS TO BE CATCHING UP WITH THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY
NEAR GALESBURG BUT STRETCHES MORE TO THE NORTH INTO THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...EARLIER CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTH CHICAGO METRO HAS SPREAD SOME OUTFLOW SOUTHWARD
THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH OF AN INDICATION THAT IT STILL EXISTS.
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MOISTURE BOUNDARY AND MOVE EASTWARD. RADAR HAS STARTED TO SHOW
THIS OCCURRING IN THE LAST SEVERAL SCANS WITH CELLS POPPING FROM
WEST OF PEORIA INTO WESTERN KENDALL COUNTY...WHILE EXISTING
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT THAT
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE GIVEN THE INCREASING ASCENT AND INSTABILITY
SO CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY TAKE OVER. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA AND MAY NEED TO TWEAK UP TO
LIKELY FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PEAK COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF THE COVERAGE EXITING THE EASTERN CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY...INSTABILITY HAS BEEN INCREASING THROUGH
THE MORNING IN THE BETTER MOISTURE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE
STRONG THANKS TO A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX CURRENTLY OVERHEAD. SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS LOW/ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO
BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOLLOWED BY HAIL GIVEN THE PARAMETERS
BUT RAP ANALYSIS DOES SHOW HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL CAPE. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS ON THE LOW END WITH PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
THE LOWEST LEVELS BUT SOME LOW LEVEL ROTATION OF STORMS IS
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS THE OTHER CONCERN WITH PWATS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1.5 INCHES IF NOT A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE FAR SOUTH.
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE FOR AREAS FROM LIVINGSTON
AND FORD COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL METRO THAT SAW HEAVY
RAINS SATURDAY. BUT STORM MOVEMENT LOOKS PROGRESSIVE AT THIS
POINT...THOUGH A QUICK HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL.
MDB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
347 AM CDT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPS TODAY AND TUESDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW TEMP
MODERATION TREND FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR MID-JULY WITH A PAIR OF DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOWS
OVER ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN QUEBEC PER GOES VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING. WESTERN-MOST UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AND LIFTING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON THROUGH TONIGHT...LIFTING NORTHEAST
WITH THE UPPER CIRCULATION TUESDAY. CONSOLIDATION OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA
ESPECIALLY BY LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE UPPER
60S/AROUND 70 BY TUESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE
CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND. LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE WITHIN
5 DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COLDEST AIR...TEMPS +4C
AT 850 HPA AND -23C AT 500 HPA IN THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
IN ADDITION TO THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY SHOWING UP ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
IL EARLY THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A QUICK-MOVING SPEED MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW. HIGH-RES WRF/RAP/HRRR RUNS ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO DEVELOP SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE LIKELY TO REMAIN
FAIRLY ISOLATED. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH A COMBINATION OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING THROUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA APPEAR THE HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...AS WELL
AS GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN GENERAL WITH SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPS STILL IN THE LOW-MID 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE DURING THE MID-DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA...AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO
HELP TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FOCUS FOR GREATER SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE. THUS HAVE GENERALLY CARRIED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. PASSAGE OF VORT AXIS WITH SHORT WAVE
WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW EARLY THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SHOULD BRING
SHOWER THREAT TO AN END. A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THOUGH BY THAT
TIME THE UPPER TROUGH IS PULLING AWAY WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES
DEVELOPING.
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF RETREATING UPPER LOW...AND SLOWLY DRIFTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S AND
EVENTUALLY TO 80/LOW 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THE GFS IS NOTABLY
FURTHER NORTH AND DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE AND BRINGS THE THREAT OF
PRECIP BACK TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH HAVE
DISCOUNTED IT AS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AND PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH FOCUS THIS SYSTEM ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF ORGANIZED PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN TIERS OF STATES BY SUNDAY.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15THJULY 16TH
CHICAGO52 IN 196749 IN 1945
ROCKFORD45 IN 193046 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 N 190362 IN 1912
ROCKFORD64 IN 196268 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA...POSSIBLE TSRA THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE OF SHRA LATE AFTERNOON THRU LATE EVENING.
* GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EARLY AFTERNOON THRU MID EVENING.
* MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE TO FESTER ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST SHOWER MENTION
FOR NOW. HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES...
ITS POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED TSRA TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM/HI
RES GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-80 CORRIDOR. AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE CURRENTLY AND THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. HOW FAR INLAND
IT MOVES IS UNCERTAIN AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST AND PUSH ANY LAKE BREEZE BACK TO THE SHORE. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN SOME BEHIND THE FRONT AND COMBINED WITH THE COLDER
AIR ALOFT...LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL ALLOW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KT
RANGE...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER THROUGH SUNSET THOUGH GUSTS MAY
PERSIST WELL INTO THIS EVENING.
AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY MORNING. SPECIFIC CIGS ARE BIT DIFFICULT FROM THIS
DISTANCE BUT CIGS IN THE 1-2KFT RANGE LOOK REASONABLE. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA THIS MORNING...LOW FOR TSRA.
* LOW FOR SHRA THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING.
* LOW FOR WINDS THIS MORNING...HIGH FOR WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
* MEDIUM FOR MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 14Z...
* TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
337 AM CDT
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS HAS CLEARED THE LAKE EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH LATER TODAY. WINDS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST BUT NOW ARE
BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT THEN VEER TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHWARD AND WILL BRING A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
LAKE MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PUSH OF
MUCH COOLER AIR. THIS WILL CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAKE IN QUITE A WHILE SUPPORTING THE MIXING OF STRONGER NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AND IT DOES APPEAR THAT 20 TO 25 KT
GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT THE INDIANA
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR WINDS AND
WAVES MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WEAKENS THROUGH THE WEEK AND MOVES OVER THE LAKE BY
WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH LIGHT SPEEDS
WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST.
NO CHANGES IN REASONING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 MB TEMPS COOLING TO AROUND
+5 OR +6 C INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LEADING TO A LAKE-850 DELTA T OF AROUND +11-12 C.
SOME OF THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF DEEP
INSTABILITY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE USING
TODAYS WATER TEMPS AT THE MID LAKE BUOYS. THESE CONDITIONS STILL
ARE ON THE LOWER END OF WATER SPOUT POTENTIAL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR NOW.
KMD/MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM
TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 PM MONDAY TO 1
PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
530 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A FRONT IS ADVERTIZED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.
THE HRRR INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT STORMS JUST NORTH OF THE FA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z. PLAN TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN CASE THEY SURVIVE OR
DEVELOP AGAIN. BY THIS EVENING THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FA
PRODUCING SLIM CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT EXCEPT THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ONCE AGAIN LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP
POPS LOW FOR TUESDAY. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WHICH LIMIT
FORCING OVER THE AREA. FORCING IMPROVES SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS GOOD AS WELL.
PLAN TO CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE
NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GOOD FORCING AND MOISTURE CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA. HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS LOOK ON TRACK. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE FORCING STARTS MOVING EAST OF THE FA SO WILL
GO WITH DECREASING POPS.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S TODAY. EVEN COOLER
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S. THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 65. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID
50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON THURSDAY A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH
GRADUAL MODERATING OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES OVER ROUGHLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TWO SEPERATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE REASONABLY GOOD TEMPORAL
AGREEMENT IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. ONE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF WEAK RIDGING AND THEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE SATURDAY. FORCING FROM THESE SHORTWAVES AND AT
LEAST MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND RISE TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK. A FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE AT KMCK. WINDS WILL DECREASE
AROUND SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT
KGLD THIS EVENING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS A STORM OVER EASTERN
COLORADO MAY DRIFT INTO THE VICINITY OF KGLD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1043 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. WITH ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS THIS MORNING...THE
THREAT OF ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED BUT IS NOT
ZERO AS SOME PEA SIZED HAIL WAS JUST REPORTED IN SOMERSET. THE HRRR
WAS FORECASTING THAT THE PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE
DECREASING AND THEN SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS BEEN UNDER
FORECASTING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN
NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
HOURLY GRIDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF RECENT OBSERVATION AND RADAR TRENDS. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR WAS ALSO FACTORED IN FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AT THIS POINT AHEAD OF A
BOUNDARY THAT IS STALL LING OUT AND BECOMING RATHER ILL DEFINED FROM
CENTRAL OH BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER. AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS A SOMEWHAT BROAD TROUGH ENCOMPASSES
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS WELL AS THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND ALSO CENTERED NEAR THE
FL PENINSULA. TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE CENTERED WITHIN THE
TROUGH...ONE NEARING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE OTHER TO ITS
EAST OVER QUEBEC. WEAK SHORTWAVES WERE ROTATING THROUGH THIS
TROUGH...WITH ONE ENTERING THE OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NEAR THE
STALLED BOUNDARY CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AS
WELL AS PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY REGION. AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ON OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER WAVE OR WAVES MOVING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SHOULD ALSO APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS COMBINATION WILL SEND
THE STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND WITH SOME
SURFACE HEATING AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR FORCING...ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TO WORK THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THIS MORNING...THE FOCUS
FOR STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD RESIDE CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KY. SOMEWHAT LESS INTENSE CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND OUTFLOWS.
FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT...CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KY OR
HAVE WEAKENED AND THEN REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND OR EASTERN KY.
PENDING SURFACE HEATING AND INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. PW WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY AND WITH RELATIVELY DEEP WARM
CLOUD DEPTH ANTICIPATED...RAINFALL RATES AROUND TWO INCHES PER OR OR
MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE REPEATED STORMS
COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME FLASH
FLOODING. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SO
SOILS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN BEFORE PROBLEMS
MIGHT DEVELOP. EXPECTED CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION AND EXTENT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS
SEEM TO POINT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA POISED TO GET THE
MOST HEATING THIS MORNING.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS IN MANY AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR TWO WORKS
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. DEEPER
MOISTURE BY TONIGHT SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...SO QPF IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE GREATER THAN
AREAS FURTHER NORTH. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY DEPARTS THE
REGION AND THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WITH A COLDER AIRMASS WORKING
INTO THE AREA AND CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS ON
WED WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE...A BREAK FROM
THE RECENT AROUND 90 TO LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER AND MOVES OUT OF THE
PLAINS. THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPARTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
INTO VIRGINIA TUESDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT...THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
FIRE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AS
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVERS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT EVENTUALLY
FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...AS A COOL AND DRY CANADIAN
AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED TO NOT REACH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN A SME
TO JKL TO SJS LINE THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. THEREAFTER...SO REDEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BRING AN OR BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IN
BOTH AREAS OF CONVECTION...MAINLY MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR IS ANTICIPATED.
FURTHER SATURATION AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO
IFR CIGS AFTER 6Z. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT PRECLUDES
GO WITH PREVAILING TSRA AT ANY POINT JUST YET.
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
754 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
HOURLY GRIDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF RECENT OBSERVATION AND RADAR TRENDS. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR WAS ALSO FACTORED IN FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AT THIS POINT AHEAD OF A
BOUNDARY THAT IS STALL LING OUT AND BECOMING RATHER ILL DEFINED FROM
CENTRAL OH BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER. AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS A SOMEWHAT BROAD TROUGH ENCOMPASSES
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS WELL AS THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND ALSO CENTERED NEAR THE
FL PENINSULA. TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE CENTERED WITHIN THE
TROUGH...ONE NEARING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE OTHER TO ITS
EAST OVER QUEBEC. WEAK SHORTWAVES WERE ROTATING THROUGH THIS
TROUGH...WITH ONE ENTERING THE OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NEAR THE
STALLED BOUNDARY CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AS
WELL AS PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY REGION. AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ON OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER WAVE OR WAVES MOVING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SHOULD ALSO APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS COMBINATION WILL SEND
THE STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND WITH SOME
SURFACE HEATING AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR FORCING...ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TO WORK THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THIS MORNING...THE FOCUS
FOR STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD RESIDE CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KY. SOMEWHAT LESS INTENSE CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND OUTFLOWS.
FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT...CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KY OR
HAVE WEAKENED AND THEN REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND OR EASTERN KY.
PENDING SURFACE HEATING AND INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. PW WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY AND WITH RELATIVELY DEEP WARM
CLOUD DEPTH ANTICIPATED...RAINFALL RATES AROUND TWO INCHES PER OR OR
MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE REPEATED STORMS
COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME FLASH
FLOODING. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SO
SOILS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN BEFORE PROBLEMS
MIGHT DEVELOP. EXPECTED CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION AND EXTENT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS
SEEM TO POINT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA POISED TO GET THE
MOST HEATING THIS MORNING.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS IN MANY AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR TWO WORKS
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. DEEPER
MOISTURE BY TONIGHT SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...SO QPF IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE GREATER THAN
AREAS FURTHER NORTH. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY DEPARTS THE
REGION AND THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WITH A COLDER AIRMASS WORKING
INTO THE AREA AND CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS ON
WED WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE...A BREAK FROM
THE RECENT AROUND 90 TO LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER AND MOVES OUT OF THE
PLAINS. THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPARTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
INTO VIRGINIA TUESDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT...THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
FIRE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AS
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVERS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT EVENTUALLY
FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...AS A COOL AND DRY CANADIAN
AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED TO NOT REACH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN A SME
TO JKL TO SJS LINE THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. THEREAFTER...SO REDEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BRING AN OR BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IN
BOTH AREAS OF CONVECTION...MAINLY MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR IS ANTICIPATED.
FURTHER SATURATION AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO
IFR CIGS AFTER 6Z. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT PRECLUDES
GO WITH PREVAILING TSRA AT ANY POINT JUST YET.
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1136 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
WE WILL SEE ONE MORE MILD DAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER...
ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. THE COLD AIR COMING IN
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER
QUIETS DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1121 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT/TUE
AM. UPPER LOW DEEPER AND TRENDING WAS. COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
ENHANCED MOISTURE. NW FLOW WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
A RQB TO BTL LINE FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
MAIN FOCUS IS PCPN CHCS/CONVECTION CHCS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WE
SEE AN UPPER LOW DIG SE OVER THE AREA CENTERED AROUND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND ON TUE.
PESKY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SURVIVE ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THEY HEAD EAST TO SE LOWER. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND
JUST OUT AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT IN THE VICINITY. ALSO AIDING TO THE
SHOWERS HOLDING TOGETHER IS THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET STREAK NNE OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WE EXPECT THE FRONT AND RRQ DYNAMICS
MOVE OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND LEAVE A SHORT BREAK IN
THE PCPN CHCS.
A CHC OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A STORM WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS WI PRESSES INTO THE AREA. THE
CHC OF PCPN TODAY WILL BE LIMITED GREATLY BY THE ENTRANCE REGION TO
ANOTHER STRENGTHENING JET STREAK MOVING OVERHEAD AND PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE TO THE AREA. ALSO...A SOMEWHAT STABILIZING FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY A BIT.
THE BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND A STORM WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON TUE. THIS IS WHEN THE
MAIN UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO MN MOVES RIGHT OVER THE CWFA. PLENTY
OF COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A STRONG VORT/PV
ANOMALY. THE COOLER AIR COMING IN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL PRODUCE
DELTA T/S OF MID TEENS C OVER THE LAKE...CHANGING TOTALLY FROM THE
STABILIZING EFFECTS ON MON AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY HELP TO ENHANCE
THE PCPN OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY UP NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.
THE BEST AND MORE CONCENTRATED MOISTURE AND PCPN WILL MOVE OUT
LATER ON TUE WITH THE UPPER LOW...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL CHC OF A POP
UP SHOWER OVER THE AREA ON TUE NIGHT. SHOWER CHCS WILL INCREASE A
LITTLE WED AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TUE NIGHT AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY CAN BUILD WITH A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
INVERSION WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT MOVING EAST THAT WILL LIMIT PCPN
TO JUST SHOWERS VS. A POSSIBLE STORM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. CERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
A BIT LESS CERTAINTY EXISTS SATURDAY DUE TO DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS. DECIDED TO KEEP IT DRY IN LINE WITH THE 14/00Z ECMWF AND
13/12Z FIM RUNS. DISCOUNTED THE WETTER 14/00Z GFS WHICH IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH LIFTING A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW AND ATTENDANT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
IMPROVING CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON . THIS IS DUE TO BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 14/00Z RUNS
OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. BOTH MODELS BRING DEEPER MOISTURE AND
ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION INTO MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS COULD
SPILL OVER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO AFTER 16Z. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IS LIMITED. AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST
INCLUDING THE LAN AND JXN TERMINALS WOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
AND GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1121 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
FSL RUC SHOWS GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ENTIRE LAKESHORE BY 12Z TUE.
THAT COMBINED WITH A NW FLOW AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD BUILD
THE WAVES CONSIDERABLY. I DID INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS BECAUSE OF
THIS. HAZARDS LOOK GOOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
QPF VALUES AT THIS POINT DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL ADD MUCH TO
THE ONGOING RUNOFF. SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD NOT REFLECT THE
FORECASTED MINIMAL CONTRIBUTION FROM THE MON TO TUE EVENT. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR IT THOUGH AS THE LAKE WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO
THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE QPF.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
737 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHOWERY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A
POTENT UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A STRONG MID/UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN-CENTRAL MN IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS TURN SOUTHEASTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ACCELERATING ENE AWAY ACROSS CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI HAS KICKED OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED AT BEST
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HORUS.
TODAY...THE OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK...WITH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO REFINE POPS BASED OFF THE
LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS AND NEW MODEL GUIDANCE. LOCAL 12KM WRF AND
NCEP HRRR MODELS HAVE HANDLED OVERNIGHT PRECIP EVOLUTION FAIRLY WELL
AND ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TODAYS PRECIP. THEREFORE...EMPLOYED
THOSE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM TO DETERMINE
PRECIP EVOLUTION TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPANDING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN CWA BY DAY BREAK.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FADE AS IT PULLS AWAY
FROM THE MAIN LOW. SOME CONCERNS HAVE APPEARED WITH THE LATEST WV
TRENDS OF THE MID/UPPER LOWER. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ANALYZING THE LOW A
TOUCH FARTHER EAST THAN SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WOULD INDICATE. THIS
PLACES SOME DOUBT ON THE PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND THE BULK OF THE FORCING DIGS FARTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WI. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON THIS TREND
WITH SUBSEQUENT RUNS...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
ONTONAGON TO MARQUETTE. MAY NEED TO DO THIS MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS DEPENDING ON THE LATEST OBS.
EVEN WITH A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK...SOME DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH
INCREASED FORCING WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
INDUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CWA. LIGHT WINDS
INITIALLY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE SHORELINE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BEFORE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WNW THIS AFTERNOON AND
STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT. WITH ALL FACTORS IN PLACE...BEST PRECIP
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM IRONWOOD TO NEGAUNEE TO
MANISTIQUE AFTER NOON.
MUCAPE VALUES REACH A MEAGER 200 J/KG IN A VERY NARROW PROFILE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST HALF THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A STRAY RUMBLE
OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE...DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN EXTREMELY LOW COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WITH SOME CAPE TO
WORK WITH...SHOWERS COULD BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE AT TIMES.
TONIGHT...A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA...THOUGH WITH WASHED OUT MID-LEVEL FORCING AROUND...HAVE
KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A DEFORMATION/FGEN REGION
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE NORTHWEST CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY. A
3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS THIS BAND MOVES
OVERHEAD...SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH-END CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.
AS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED FOR MANY DAYS...TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL
FOR MID-JULY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WITH
THE MAIN H8 COLD-CORE OF 4-5C PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...TEMPS
WERE A BIT TRICKY. LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE WI BORDER
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. DID INCREASE
TEMPS FAR EAST AS THEY SHOULD SEE SOME HEATING EARLY ON. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THEIR MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S AROUND LATE MORNING
BEFORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AND KEEP TEMPS STEADY...OR POSSIBLY
FALLING...THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER LOWER MI 12Z TUE WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PAST THE CWA AT THAT POINT. THE TROUGH AND LOW MOVE EAST
TUE AND NORTHEAST ON WED AWAY FROM THE AREA. PCPN WILL BE SLOWLY
PULLING OUT ON TUE AND BY WED...SHOULD BE DRY. NAM SHOWS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE SLOWLY DEPARTING ON TUE. GFS SHOWS ABOUT THE SAME THING
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF AND WILL USE A BLEND OF THEM FOR THIS
FORECAST.
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
WESTERN CWA AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO DRY THEN FOR THE FORECAST TUE NIGHT THROUGH
WED NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
12Z THU. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THEN.
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE FOR FRI. ON SAT...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA FORMS AN UPPER LOW IN IT THAT MOVES INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN 12Z SAT. A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM SITS OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR SUN THEN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND BRING
-SHRA TO ALL TERMINALS. W TO WNW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP
THE WINDOW FOR SHOWERS SMALLER AT IWD AND CMX AS THE SHOWERS BECOME
ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...EXPECT HIGH COVERAGE AROUND
SAW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW CIGS WILL EVOLVE AT EACH SITE THROUGH
TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORT LOW-END MVFR CIGS
AT IWD BY LATE MORNING WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF SHRA MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN WELL INTO TONIGHT WITH ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. AT CMX...SHRA WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR OF THE TERMINAL TODAY...SO MVFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE FINAL ROUND OF SHRA TONIGHT. SAW WILL SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO CMX...BUT WITH HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHRA THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH-END MVFR CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO EXITS EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND EXTENDS A TROUGH WESTWARD ACROSS
LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING S TO SW FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1114 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NOT CHANGES. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
SOON AS WE HAVE BEEN BUSY WITH STORM FOLLOWUP FROM YESTERDAY.
REFER TO THE LATEST PNS FOR THE CONFIRMATION OF AN EF1 TORNADO
FROM READING, NY YESTERDAY.
250 AM UPDATE... AFT WIDESPREAD SVR WX TDA WILL CATCH A
QUICK BREATH BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND STARTS THIS AFTN. H5 LOWS ARE
PINWHEELING ARND EACH OTHER ACRS CANADA LEAVING A MEAN TROF FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CWA RMNS IN A SOUPY AIRMASS WITH JUST A
1-3 DEGREE DWPT DEPRESSION. LGT WINDS AND CLRNG SKIES HV SET THE
STAGE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG DIFFUSE BNDRY FM NEW ENGLAND BACK INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE. 00Z NAM HAS
A HORRIBLE HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDS AND IS ALREADY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
CONVECTION ACRS SRN PA WHEREAS LATEST RUC HAS BETTER HANDLE. HV RMVD
POPS ACRS NEPA THRU 12Z WITH JUST ISOLD SHOWERS THRU 15Z AND THEN
INCRS TO LKLY TWD 18Z AS NEXT WV APPCHS FM THE SOUTHWEST. CAPES
EXPECTED TO RUN THE GAMUT FM ARND 100 (RAP) TO ~ 1000 (GFS AND LOCAL
WRF) ACRS SERN ZONES THIS AFTN. THIS DEPENDS ON T/TD VALUES BEING
HANDLED BY THE MODELS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GFS HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON SFC T/TD FIELDS WITH RUC BEING COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH
WITH TD VALUES AT 18Z OVR NEPA IN THE LWR 50S. HV SEEN THIS RECENTLY
IN THE RUC/RAP FIELDS WITH BLYR CONDS BEING TOO DRY, THUS DO NOT
TRUST THIS AND WL TEND MORE TWD GFS. HWVR, THINK GFS IS TOO BULLISH
ON HIGH TEMPS ACRS NEPA AND WL LEAN MORE TWD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS, WITH CAPE VALUES POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 800-900 J/KG OVR
NEPA FOR THIS AFTN.
THAT BEING SAID, HV GONE WITH LKLY THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A MONTICELLO TO SCRANTON LINE THIS AFTN. SHEAR WL NOT BE AS WELL
ORGANIZED TDA THUS THINKING THAT SVR STORMS WL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD,
THO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE HVY RAINFALL WITH
PW VALUES OF 1-2 SD AND POSSIBLY SLOW-MVG STORMS. THIS THREAT AREA
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL YDA WITH A STRIPE
OF 1-3 INCH STORM TOTAL QPF FM NRN BRADFORD THRU SRN BROOME INTO
EXTRM NRN SULLIVAN CNTY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THESE
AREAS THIS AFTN, THUS WL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FEEL THAT
THIS IS MORE WORTHY OF A SHORT-FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AFTER
CONVECTION DVLPS.
IN ADDITION TO NEPA AFTR A BRIEF BUBBLE HIGH TAKES SHAPE ACRS NRN
ZONES THIS MRNG, MODELS ARE HINTING A MESO-LOW DVLPS ACRS THE
FINGER LKS THIS AFTN. THIS WL LKLY LEAD TO AN ADDNL AREA OF LKLY
CONVECTION, THO NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE SVR AT THIS TIME AND WITH
PW VALUES ARND 1.5 INCHES LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING STRONG H2 SPEED MAX
LIFTING ACRS SRN CANADA THIS AFTN, WHICH WUD PLACE CWA IN
FAVORABLE RRQ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
AIRMASS WL CONTINUE TO BE SOGGY WITH CWA SITTING WELL INTO WMSECTOR
TONIGHT. SFC LOPRES CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR LK SUPERIOR WL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SET UP SHOP OVR LK HURON/GEORGIAN BAY AREA BY
06Z. THIS WL KEEP WVS RIDING UP IN SRLY FLOW AFFECTING THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER H2 SPEED MAX PROGGED TO IMPACT AREA MVG TWD AREA FM THE NW
BY 12Z. THIS WL SERVE TO EXPAND CHC THUNDER OVR MOST OF CWA AND
COUPLED WITH S/WVS RIDING NORTH ARND BASE OF UL TROF WL BE TUFF TO
PINPOINT WHERE BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION WL BE. THUS WL KEEP JUST GNRL
THUNDER IN AT THIS TIME.
SFC LOW WL MV UP INTO SRN ON AND QC LATE TUE AFTN AND OCCLUDE OUT AS
IT DOES SO. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON BNDRY MVG THRU WITH 00Z
GFS CONTINUING TO BE FASTER MVG DRY AIR INTO WRN ZONES AFT 18Z
TUESDAY WHEREAS GFS IS ABOUT 6 HRS QUICKER. INTERESTING THAT 00Z
EURO IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE NAM IS WITH DRIER AIR NOT MVG IN UNTIL
CLOSER TO 06Z WED. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT EURO IS SLOWEST OF
ALL MODELS TO EJECT H5 LOW OUT. WL SIDE MORE TWD NAM WHICH IS THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN WITH MVMNT OF FROPA.
BNDRY MVS THRU CWA TUE NGT TAKING PCPN WITH IT DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.
THIS BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH IT WITH MINS DIPPING INTO THE
50S BY WED MRNG. UL TROF WL TAKE ITS SWEET TIME MVG THRU CWA WITH
SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS WED AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
THE BIG STORY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPS, AND A POSSIBLE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DURING THIS PERIOD A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST BUT A POP UP
SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVER CENTRAL
TX, WE AREN`T QUITE OUT OF THE WOODS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS WE
HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AS THIS TROF MOVES EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT
MOISTURE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TIMING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOISTURE GETS IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE OLDER RUNS OF THE
GFS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO, BRINGING IN SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE EURO NOT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
WHATEVER THE CASE IT DOES APPEAR CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND ITSELF. ON THE FRONT END I PUT IN JUST A 20%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NEPA FRIDAY BUT SAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SAT/SUN.
IF THE PATTERN HOLDS CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED THIS
WEEKEND BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WDSPRD IFR/MVFR THIS MRNG WITH ELM/BGM BLO ALT MINS DUE TO FOG
AND CIGS. XPCT IFR CIGS TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR RNG BY MID MRNG...THEN
IMPRV TO VFR BY LATE MRNG. POTNL FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTN DUE TO
APRCHNG S/WV...ALTHO AVP COULD SEE ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTN. OPTED
FOR A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AT ALL SITES THIS AFTN...GNRLY IN THE
20-01Z TIME FRAME. TNGT...XPCT MVFR AND PSBLY IFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO BR/FOG/AND SCT -SHRA. WINDS LGT AND GNRLY FROM THE SW THRU THE
PD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED/THUR/FRI..,VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
639 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
250 AM UPDATE...
AFT WIDESPREAD SVR WX TDA WILL CATCH A QUICK BREATH BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND STARTS THIS AFTN. H5 LOWS ARE PINWHEELING ARND EACH OTHER ACRS
CANADA LEAVING A MEAN TROF FOR AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CWA RMNS
IN A SOUPY AIRMASS WITH JUST A 1-3 DEGREE DWPT DEPRESSION. LGT WINDS
AND CLRNG SKIES HV SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVR MOST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG DIFFUSE BNDRY FM NEW ENGLAND BACK INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE. 00Z NAM HAS
A HORRIBLE HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDS AND IS ALREADY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
CONVECTION ACRS SRN PA WHEREAS LATEST RUC HAS BETTER HANDLE. HV RMVD
POPS ACRS NEPA THRU 12Z WITH JUST ISOLD SHOWERS THRU 15Z AND THEN
INCRS TO LKLY TWD 18Z AS NEXT WV APPCHS FM THE SOUTHWEST. CAPES
EXPECTED TO RUN THE GAMUT FM ARND 100 (RAP) TO ~ 1000 (GFS AND LOCAL
WRF) ACRS SERN ZONES THIS AFTN. THIS DEPENDS ON T/TD VALUES BEING
HANDLED BY THE MODELS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GFS HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON SFC T/TD FIELDS WITH RUC BEING COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH
WITH TD VALUES AT 18Z OVR NEPA IN THE LWR 50S. HV SEEN THIS RECENTLY
IN THE RUC/RAP FIELDS WITH BLYR CONDS BEING TOO DRY, THUS DO NOT
TRUST THIS AND WL TEND MORE TWD GFS. HWVR, THINK GFS IS TOO BULLISH
ON HIGH TEMPS ACRS NEPA AND WL LEAN MORE TWD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS, WITH CAPE VALUES POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 800-900 J/KG OVR
NEPA FOR THIS AFTN.
THAT BEING SAID, HV GONE WITH LKLY THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A MONTICELLO TO SCRANTON LINE THIS AFTN. SHEAR WL NOT BE AS WELL
ORGANIZED TDA THUS THINKING THAT SVR STORMS WL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD,
THO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE HVY RAINFALL WITH
PW VALUES OF 1-2 SD AND POSSIBLY SLOW-MVG STORMS. THIS THREAT AREA
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL YDA WITH A STRIPE
OF 1-3 INCH STORM TOTAL QPF FM NRN BRADFORD THRU SRN BROOME INTO
EXTRM NRN SULLIVAN CNTY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THESE
AREAS THIS AFTN, THUS WL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FEEL THAT
THIS IS MORE WORTHY OF A SHORT-FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AFTER
CONVECTION DVLPS.
IN ADDITION TO NEPA AFTR A BRIEF BUBBLE HIGH TAKES SHAPE ACRS NRN
ZONES THIS MRNG, MODELS ARE HINTING A MESO-LOW DVLPS ACRS THE
FINGER LKS THIS AFTN. THIS WL LKLY LEAD TO AN ADDNL AREA OF LKLY
CONVECTION, THO NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE SVR AT THIS TIME AND WITH
PW VALUES ARND 1.5 INCHES LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING STRONG H2 SPEED MAX
LIFTING ACRS SRN CANADA THIS AFTN, WHICH WUD PLACE CWA IN
FAVORABLE RRQ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
AIRMASS WL CONTINUE TO BE SOGGY WITH CWA SITTING WELL INTO WMSECTOR
TONIGHT. SFC LOPRES CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR LK SUPERIOR WL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SET UP SHOP OVR LK HURON/GEORGIAN BAY AREA BY
06Z. THIS WL KEEP WVS RIDING UP IN SRLY FLOW AFFECTING THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER H2 SPEED MAX PROGGED TO IMPACT AREA MVG TWD AREA FM THE NW
BY 12Z. THIS WL SERVE TO EXPAND CHC THUNDER OVR MOST OF CWA AND
COUPLED WITH S/WVS RIDING NORTH ARND BASE OF UL TROF WL BE TUFF TO
PINPOINT WHERE BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION WL BE. THUS WL KEEP JUST GNRL
THUNDER IN AT THIS TIME.
SFC LOW WL MV UP INTO SRN ON AND QC LATE TUE AFTN AND OCCLUDE OUT AS
IT DOES SO. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON BNDRY MVG THRU WITH 00Z
GFS CONTINUING TO BE FASTER MVG DRY AIR INTO WRN ZONES AFT 18Z
TUESDAY WHEREAS GFS IS ABOUT 6 HRS QUICKER. INTERESTING THAT 00Z
EURO IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE NAM IS WITH DRIER AIR NOT MVG IN UNTIL
CLOSER TO 06Z WED. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT EURO IS SLOWEST OF
ALL MODELS TO EJECT H5 LOW OUT. WL SIDE MORE TWD NAM WHICH IS THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN WITH MVMNT OF FROPA.
BNDRY MVS THRU CWA TUE NGT TAKING PCPN WITH IT DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.
THIS BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH IT WITH MINS DIPPING INTO THE
50S BY WED MRNG. UL TROF WL TAKE ITS SWEET TIME MVG THRU CWA WITH
SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS WED AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
THE BIG STORY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPS, AND A POSSIBLE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DURING THIS PERIOD A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST BUT A POP UP
SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVER CENTRAL
TX, WE AREN`T QUITE OUT OF THE WOODS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS WE
HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AS THIS TROF MOVES EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT
MOISTURE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TIMING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOISTURE GETS IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE OLDER RUNS OF THE
GFS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO, BRINGING IN SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE EURO NOT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
WHATEVER THE CASE IT DOES APPEAR CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND ITSELF. ON THE FRONT END I PUT IN JUST A 20%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NEPA FRIDAY BUT SAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SAT/SUN.
IF THE PATTERN HOLDS CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED THIS
WEEKEND BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WDSPRD IFR/MVFR THIS MRNG WITH ELM/BGM BLO ALT MINS DUE TO FOG
AND CIGS. XPCT IFR CIGS TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR RNG BY MID MRNG...THEN
IMPRV TO VFR BY LATE MRNG. POTNL FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTN DUE TO
APRCHNG S/WV...ALTHO AVP COULD SEE ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTN. OPTED
FOR A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AT ALL SITES THIS AFTN...GNRLY IN THE
20-01Z TIME FRAME. TNGT...XPCT MVFR AND PSBLY IFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO BR/FOG/AND SCT -SHRA. WINDS LGT AND GNRLY FROM THE SW THRU THE
PD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.
WED/THUR/FRI..,VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
958 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFFSHORE TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY AND SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN DISSIPATE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES DOMINANT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM MONDAY...A FEW SHOWERS LINGER JUST OFFSHORE WITH
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND. PATCH OF AC OVER THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT HAS GRADUALLY DISSIPATED AS WELL. 3KM HRRR SHOWS A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GFS/NAM12 SHOWING A BETTER COVERAGE WELL INLAND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHC POPS INLAND AND SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE COAST. NO CHANGE
TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MON...APPROACHING UPR TRF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL
LEAD TO DECENT SW FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH SOME INCREASE IN LIFT
LATE. WILL CONT WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHC POPS EARLY WITH CHC LATE AS
THE LIFT BEGINS TO REACH THE REGION. WILL BE A MILD/MUGGY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY TUES THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH TUES NIGHT HELPING TO PUSH LOWER HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE
REGION. A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL DRAG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION TUES INTO
WED. THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL BE SHUNTED WELL
OFFSHORE TUES THOUGH IT WILL HELP FOCUS A RICH SOUTHWESTERLY
MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TUES THROUGH WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TUES AND
MOVE INTO EASTERN NC WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS
RAMPING BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES LATE TUES INTO EARLY WED. MAINTAINED
TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES...TO LIKELY BY
TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW
DEGREES TUES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS INHIBITING MAXIMUM
INSOLATION...THOUGH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN ROUGHLY 1425
METERS. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE TUES AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING WHEN SLIGHTLY GREATER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. EXPECT HEAVIEST/WIDESPREAD PRECIP
TO OCCUR TUES NIGHT WHEN LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OF AROUND 17
G/KG AND PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH OFFSHORE WED BUT HAVE CONTINUED
SLOWLY DECREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST...AS WE WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY BY 00Z THURS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1405-1410 METERS WED WHICH YIELDS
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.
00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THURS INTO THURS
NIGHT KEEPING MOST OF EASTERN NC MOSTLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...MAINLY
EAST OF HWY 17. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT LEADING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BECOMES MORE DOMINANT SUN WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES IN MEAN SW FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THRU THE PD. WDLY SCT SHRA SHLD
STAY E OF TAF SITES THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY SOME WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP INLAND AS INSTAB INCREASES...HOWEVER
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A MENTION AT THIS
TIME. SCT SHRA AND TSRA MAY INCREASE A BIT LATE TONIGHT BUT TOO FAR
OUT TO INCLUDE SO CONT VFR WITH DECENT SW FLOW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH COULD PRODUCE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TUES THROUGH WED...WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS/VSBYS TUES NIGHT.
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM MONDAY...WILL SEE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15
KNOTS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS LATER IN THE
DAY. SEAS ARE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL CONT AT 15 TO
20 KTS TONIGHT AS GRDNT REMAINS TIGHT WITH COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE W. SEAS OF MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT EARLY WILL BUILD
TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE TODAY...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. SEAS
WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5 FT TONIGHT...MAY FLIRT WITH 6 FT FAR OUTER
CNTRL WTRS BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP AT 5 FT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUN...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. SW WINDS WILL RANGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN ALL
WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...10 KNOTS OR LESS..AS THE FRONT REMAINS OFFSHORE
THURS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND DIRECTION LATE THURS
INTO FRI...AS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS AS
EARLY AS THURS. WILL MAINTAIN A MORE EASTERLY TREND FOR WINDS
FRI. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT THURS INTO FRI. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
00Z WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG/TL
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...CTC/RF/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
825 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE 06 UTC GFS/NAM AND 11-12 UTC RAP ITERATIONS SUPPORT THE ONGOING
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED
OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO THE 13 UTC OBSERVED TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
MAIN CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WAS TO UP CLOUD COVER MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BASED UPON CURRENT SATELLITE. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD THEN BE ON THE DECREASE LATER TODAY AS LOW WORKS SOUTH AND
EAST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
MAINLY STAY OVER THOSE AREAS ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THROUGH
12-14Z THIS MORNING...CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA.
VERY UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LOW...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE CYCLONE +1-2 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS IS VERY
RARE FOR MID JULY. RESULTANT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
60S EAST TO AROUND 70 WEST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DEEP LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS WHILE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOPS. NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS AS
FLAT RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE SERIES OF UPPER
LOWS PUSH INTO THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES
SLIDING THROUGH OUR AREA STILL REMAINS TRICKY THOUGH MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT THE GREATEST POP CHANCES WILL COME IN THE FRIDAY
NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 824 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KBIS AND KJMS THROUGH 15Z WHEN
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1030 AM EDT MONDAY... LATE MORNING MODEL PROFILES INDICATE
SUFFICIENT CAPE EXISTS FOR CONVECTIVE CELLS TO DEVELOP... AS SOON AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES SUFFICIENTLY TO
REMOVE CIN. PER THE CURRENT FORECAST... MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT AND BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. NOAA PROFILERS IN THE FOOTHILLS DISPLAY A LIGHT WEST WIND
NEAR THE SURFACE WHILE NC DENR CHARLOTTE PROFILER HAS A SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT UP TO ABOUT 4K FT THEN BASICALLY WEST ALOFT... PERHAPS A
SIGN OF LEE TROUGH BECOMING MORE EVIDENT THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY..AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL SWING SEWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SEWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE
INCREASING SW/WSW FLOW IN LIGHT OF TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEAKLY CAPPED MID
LEVEL INVERSION LAYER WILL BE PRESENT AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH
THE HELP OF INCREASING H85 DOWNSLOPE +15KTS SWLY WINDS. HENCE...THIS
WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY CONVECTION OVER THE
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...THE MTN ZONES WILL SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME AND BETTER
BUOYANCY. WE WILL THUS FEATURE 40-50 POPS IN THE MTNS WITH 20-30 POP
OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
SEWARD...MODELS AGREE THAT A LINE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS
IT CROSSES THE MTNS. THE LATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE SPC HAS BACKED OFF TO OUR WEST...THOUGH 5
PERCENT OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT STILL COVERS MUCH OF THE CWA. WITH
THAT SAID...POPS RAMP UP TO LIKELY OVER THE NC MTNS WITH LOW END
CHANCE OVER THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER MI...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST. THE LOW
REACHES QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL REACH THE TN VALLEY LATE IN THE
TUESDAY...AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT REACHES THE PIEDMONT BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND THE COAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY OVER THE PIEDMONT. QPF WILL BE LIMITED
BY THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AS
THE BOUNDARY DECELERATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND OVER THE GULF
STATES. A RETURN FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF OVER THE STALLED FRONT
WILL PROVIDE MOIST LIFT TO CREATE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THAT WILL SPREAD
IN NW GA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 AM EDT MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF COAST. THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM GO OUT OF PHASE BY FRIDAY...WHEN THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH REMAINS IN EASTERN CANADA...AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT
OF THE PLAINS CAUSES A RETROGRESSION OF THE MEAN SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. A CLOSED LOW FORMS IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER LAKE MI ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE TROUGH
AXIS MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS.
ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH A
TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH FORM THE ROCKIES TO NEW ENGLAND. CLOUD COVER FORMED BY
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FRONT WILL WASTE NO
TIME SPREADING EAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO TO THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY. WEAK
MOIST ASCENT OVER THE GULF FRONT AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY THE GULF FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...WHILE
THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BEGINS TO WEAKEN. BY
SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE RETREATED NORTH...AND A WARM
MOIST AIR FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE NORMAL WEATHER TO THE
AREA.
INITIALLY...BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL IN THE COOL AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT. BY SATURDAY THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE LIMITED BY BOTH CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES START TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD REMOVE CIN AROUND 16 TO 17Z
RESULTING IN RAPID CU AND TCU FORMATION AS RISING PARCELS TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE CAPE. CLOUD BASES WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6K FT
RANGE. GFS AND RAP CAPES ARE RATHER MODEST WHILE NAM IS MORE ROBUST
WITH VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD AFTER 17Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHARLOTTE PROFILER INDICATES SOUTHWEST
WIND OF AT LEAST 10 KT UP TO 4K FT LATE THIS MORNING... SO EXPECT
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND DIRECTION TO CONTINUE. IF LEE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON... WIND DIRECTION COULD
BECOME VARIABLE ALTHOUGH SPEED SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
REMAINDER TAF SITES... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD REMOVE CIN NEAR 15Z AT
KAVL AND BY 17Z AT REMAINDER TAF SITES RESULTING IN RAPID CU AND TCU
FORMATION AS RISING PARCELS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE CAPE. CLOUD
BASES WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6 K FT RANGE. GFS AND RAP CAPES ARE RATHER
MODEST WHILE NAM IS MORE ROBUST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS VICINITY KAVL WITH COVERAGE VICINITY OTHER AIRFIELDS
INCREASING DURING MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE WIND WILL BE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT ALTHOUGH NON-MOUNTAIN SITES COULD SEE
VARIABLE DIRECTION AND LIGHT SPEED BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OVER DUE
TO LEE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. VFR
WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 93%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 86%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 93%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JOH/LGL
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JOH/LGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
858 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.MORNING UPDATE...
TAILORED BACK THE POPS QUITE A BIT OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SPRINGFIELD SW TO LINDEN...AND BEHIND
THIS. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THIS AREA.
MORE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP FROM
MIDDAY ON...WITH THE FOCUS ALONG THE SAME BOUNDARY BUT MORE THAN
LIKELY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN. KEPT LIKELY POPS 18Z ON. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO ALL AIRPORTS THIS TAF
PERIOD. LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IFR/MVFR VIS/CIGS WILL REACH
CKV BETWEEN 12-13Z AND BNA BY 14Z...BUT WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING CSV
BY 16-17Z. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR BNA/CSV WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR TSRA. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING TO INCREASE AND
BECOME WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON...THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT DUE TO
FROPA. PATCHY FOG THEN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT ALL AIRPORTS.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC IS CURRENTLY SHOWING CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY ENTERING THE NW
CORNER OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST BEFORE 12Z. NAM SHOWS TWO DISTINCT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH THIS APPROACHING
SYSTEM. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT, AND THEN WE GET THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, MIDDLE
TENNESSEE REMAINS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. BUT HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT, WITH 24-HOUR QPF FROM 12Z TODAY THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN PARTS OF EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
AFTERWARDS, LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS A
COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
630 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO ALL AIRPORTS THIS TAF
PERIOD. LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IFR/MVFR VIS/CIGS WILL REACH
CKV BETWEEN 12-13Z AND BNA BY 14Z...BUT WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING CSV
BY 16-17Z. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR BNA/CSV WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR TSRA. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING TO INCREASE AND
BECOME WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON...THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT DUE TO
FROPA. PATCHY FOG THEN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT ALL AIRPORTS.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC IS CURRENTLY SHOWING CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY ENTERING THE NW
CORNER OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST BEFORE 12Z. NAM SHOWS TWO DISTINCT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH THIS APPROACHING
SYSTEM. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT, AND THEN WE GET THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, MIDDLE
TENNESSEE REMAINS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. BUT HEAVY RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT, WITH 24-HOUR QPF FROM 12Z TODAY THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN PARTS OF EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
AFTERWARDS, LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS A
COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1016 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO POPS AND WEATHER FOR TODAY.
40
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AT MID
MORNING. THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIFFERED TODAY...WITH THE
GFSBUFR DRIER THAN THE NAMBUFR. THE NAMBUFR VERIFIED CLOSER TO THE
UPPER AIR SITES...HOWEVER BOTH INDICATED DRIER CONDITIONS AND LESS
CAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THAN TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID
NOTE THAT THE HRRR WAS VERIFYING AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY AS WELL.
MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD START NEAR THE COAST AND MOVE INLAND AS THE
SEABREEZE COMBINES WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW. THE NAM
SHEARS OUT THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TODAY...WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND COASTAL AREAS.
WITH THAT IN MIND...THE ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TWEAK THE POPS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES. KEPT THE 30
PERCENT POPS IN PLACE. ALSO KEPT THE 10 PERCENT POPS FROM HOUSTON
COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO THE CLL AREA.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
AREA. HIGH RES MODELS ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH 4KM
NCEP WRF SHOWING A BIT MORE THUNDER.
BY 10Z TUESDAY MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HEADING TO THE SOUTH AND APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DUE TO
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF WACO.
HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS BAND FIZZLING AS IT APPROACHES
THE COAST. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN
OUR AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE BAND MAKES
IT. FOR NOW HAVE PUT A PROB 30 IN AND WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW DOWN
TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP IN FUTURE TAF PACKAGES. 23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER UTAH AND TROUGH NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH A WEAKNESS EXTENDING FROM NEAR LITTLE ROCK TO
HOUSTON. YESTERDAYS GULF CIRCULATION HAS MOVED INTO SE TX AND IS
GETTING STRETCHED. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING. PW DOWN TO 1.8" AT GLS AND IN LINE WITH MODEL PROGS OF
THE MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE MODEL SOUNDING AM
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE. CIN NON-
EXISTENT WITH CAPE OF 800-1500 J/KG AND K INDEX AROUND 32. 850
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TONIGHT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD PUSH THE
COLD FRONT INTO NE TX TUESDAY AND MAY REACH FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF SE TX OR MORE LIKELY OUTFLOW FROM STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WET PERIOD TAKES SHAPE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
FRONT HANGS UP IN THE NORTH PORTIONS OF SE TX OR NE TX WEDNESDAY
AND SERIES OF S/W DROPPING SE WILL KEEP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACTIVE AND RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEK. LATE
THU/EARLY FRI LLJ FORMS OVER SE TX IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER S/W
APPROACHING AND MIGHT BE THE KEY TO HEAVIER RAINS. DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT A SPECIFIC DAY AS MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL LIKELY DOMINATE
WHERE THE RAINS SET UP EACH DAY BUT WITH MOISTURE
POOLING/PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT/LIFT HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS UP ON
POPS BUT IT WOULD NOT BE A SHOCK TO SEE MUCH HIGHER POPS NEEDED BY
MID WEEK AS CONFIDENCE IN BOUNDARIES GROWS AND MESOSCALE MODELS
NARROW IN ON THE LOCATION.
UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD THIS COMING WEEKEND ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AND NM. ULTIMATELY HITTING 597-600DM BY NEXT TUESDAY (07/22) WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO A HOT SPELL FOR SE TX.
MARINE...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WATERS TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN THE MORNING UNTIL THE SEA BREEZE BEGINS TO
MOVE INLAND PUTTING AN END TO RAIN OVER THE WATERS. A WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE DOWN FROM NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AND STALL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER... GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHWARDS. AS OF NOW THIS BAND OF
RAIN LOOKS TO FIZZLE BEFORE MAKING TO THE WATERS. MARINE INTERESTS
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IF YOU HAVE PLANS TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO START TO TIGHTEN TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS
TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WAVE HEIGHTS
COULD BE UP IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE. 23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 98 75 95 74 95 / 10 20 30 30 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 97 77 94 75 94 / 30 20 40 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 91 80 90 81 91 / 20 10 40 30 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
927 AM MST MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST DUE TO CLOUDS...HUMIDITY...AND
RAINFALL. BY WEDNESDAY...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. INCREASED HUMIDITY AND A THREAT OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MAINLY TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY AS THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS
BOTH FAVORING AND ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON...AND INDICATING THINGS
SHOULD BE MUCH QUIETER. MORNING SOUNDING AT PSR REVEALED 1.75 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH SATELLITE DERIVED VALUES NORTH OF 2
INCHES IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY NEAR YUMA...BLYTHE...AND
EL CENTRO. CERTAINLY FEELS MUGGY OUT THERE WITH WIDESPREAD SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. OBVIOUSLY...THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...MORNING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA HAS LARGELY
EVAPORATED ACROSS THE LOWER AZ DESERTS...WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. VIS SATELLITE ALSO SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE
OF A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY MCV OVER EASTERN ARIZONA.
NEARLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AFTER 21Z...WITH SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING WELL OVER 1500 J/KG MLCAPES. THIS SEEMS VASTLY OVERDONE
BASED ON THIS MORNINGS 12Z PSR SOUNDING...WHICH IF MODIFIED TO SHOW
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER 100S AND DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE MID
60S...STILL ONLY INDICATES 500-750 J/KG WITH A 100 J/KG CAP.
REALISTICALLY...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF A CAP...BUT I DONT
THINK THINGS WILL PLAY OUT AS ACTIVE AS THE HRRR /FOR EXAMPLE/
SUGGESTS. STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO FORM ALONG THE RIM AS WELL AS
ACROSS SE AZ UNDER CLEAR SKIES...THEN PROPAGATE WESTWARD TOWARD THE
PHOENIX AREA. WINDS ALOFT ARENT NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WHICH IS A BIT OF A MITIGATING FACTOR...BUT 10-15KTS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP STORMS MIGRATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FELT
IT PRUDENT TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN
THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE ENTIRE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES NOTED UPSTREAM. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THINGS THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY ONCE THINGS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TUESDAY...
OTHERWISE...THE AIRMASS HAS NOW MOISTENED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS ALL
THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...BEHIND THE EXITING INVERTED TROF...MODELS FORECAST UPPER
LEVEL 300/250 MB HIGH CENTERS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST AZ BY LATE
TODAY...THEN SHIFT TOWARD FLAGSTAFF ON TUESDAY. MONSOON RESEARCH HAS
SHOWN WHEN 300/250 MB HIGH CENTERS COINCIDE...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
FAVORS THE EAST THROUGH SOUTH FLANKS OF THE ANTI-CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...LARGE CONVECTIVE STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY MOVING
OUTFLOWS AND CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE OUTFLOWS WILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF DESCENDING INTO THE LOWER CENTRAL DESERTS BY EVENING...
INCLUDING PHOENIX AND CASA GRANDE. THEREFORE EVENING PRECIP
PROBABILITIES WILL BE ELEVATED AGAIN TODAY. DITTO ON TUESDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER DUE TO INCREASED HUMIDITY
AND CLOUDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MODELING THE LIGHT UPPER LEVEL
WIND REGIME DURING THE SUMMER-TIME...THIS FAR OUT THEY SUGGEST BROAD
QUASI-STABILIZING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. AT
THE SAME TIME...MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND FROM THE
WEST...ALL RESULTING IN AN END TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ZONE 24 SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY
EAST OF PHOENIX WED THROUGH FRI.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
MODELS FORECAST A RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE FROM MEXICO THIS
PERIOD. A FEW WEAK NORTHWARD UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS FROM MEXICO
ARE POSSIBLE...AND ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS TO THE LOWER CENTRAL AZ DESERTS AND
MOUNTAINS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
DEEP PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...FIRST IN THE
FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT`S STORMS STILL BKN-OVC AOA
15KFT FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS. EARLY AM WINDS TO KEEP VARIABLE
HEADINGS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT SPEEDS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING WHILE DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SCATTER OUT. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THEY WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE METRO
AREA. STORM ACTIVITY COULD START A BIT EARLIER THAN 15/00Z...LIKE WE
SAW ON SUNDAY...WITH STORM COVERAGE STARTING TO FILL IN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY 14/22Z. COULD SEE SOUTHERLY STORM OUTFLOWS
INTO THE AREA AFTER 15/00Z...WITH AT LEAST HEDGED VCTS LINGERING
UNTIL LATE INTO THE EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THICK DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
HEADINGS WILL HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH ELEVATED AFTN GUSTS OF
20-25KTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS IN ARIZONA WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IF ANY
OF IT WILL REACH THE WESTERN TERMINALS LATER INTO THE EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND DEBRIS CLOUDS BKN-OVC AOA 15KFT FOR
KIPL AND KBLH IS LIKELY LATE INTO THE EVENING. WITH VCSH...OVERNIGHT
WINDS MAY BE VARIABLE IN NATURE WITH THE PASSING SHOWERS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AIR WILL ALREADY BE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WESTERN PARTS OF
THE DISTRICT TUESDAY...SPREADING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CNTRL ARIZONA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OVER THE LOWER DESERTS MAY
FALL AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH GOOD RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RELEGATED BACK TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDING GILA COUNTY...WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
GUSTS...THOUGH SOME STRONGER GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN GILA COUNTY. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A
RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION SOMETIME AFTER
SUNDAY...WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WHEN THE DEEPEST PROFILE WILL
BE OVER THE DISTRICTS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1052 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
REFLECTING INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN MONSOON FLOW. CURRENT
RADAR DEPICTS SOME LIGHT RETURNS MOVING WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE HRRR PRECIP FIELDS SOMEWHAT
CAPTURE THIS AREA AND TRACK IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FROM MONTEREY BAY TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF SCATTERED SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CURRENTLY NO LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED
IN THE REGION. TT AND MUCAPE VALUES ARE VERY MARGINAL SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT NOT ANTICIPATING LIGHTNING TODAY. OTHER
UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT EXTREMELY WARM CONDITIONS IN THE
HILLS. MANY AREAS ABOVE 1500 FEET ELEVATION BARELY DROPPED BELOW
80 DEGREES LAST NIGHT. 12Z KOAK SOUNDING SHOWS THIS WELL WITH A
WARM NOSE AROUND 925MB OF +31C.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT MONDAY...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER NEVADA THIS MORNING WITH VERY
WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THIS WARM AIR MASS
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S THIS MORNING IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...THE
MARINE LAYER IS BELOW 1000 FT AT THIS HOUR ALONG WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS HAS KEPT STRATUS FROM FORMING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OVER HALF MOON
BAY AND PORTIONS OF THE MONTEREY PENINSULA.
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OFF THE SURFACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY WARM BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING MOST LOCATIONS TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. MEANWHILE...AS THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND COULD HELP INHIBIT MAXIMUM WARMING. CONTINUE TO
BELIEVE THE NEEDED LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO PRODUCE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. HAVING SAID THAT...IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY
AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES GIVEN THE INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.
SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE MARINE INFLUENCE TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
STRATUS TO SPREAD INLAND. IN ADDITION...A DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT
WILL RETURN AND SCOUR OUT THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH CLOUD STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE REGION TODAY. LATEST
MODELS KEEP A VERY SHALLOW/COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER FOR TOMORROW
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...ONLY IMPACT WILL BE FOR MONTEREY BAY AS
CIGS WILL BE PATCHY AROUND THE GOLDEN GATE. CONF IS MEDIUM-HIGH.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. LOW
CIGS RETURN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:48 AM PDT MONDAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NORTH OF POINT
REYES. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: MM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
436 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
SHOWERS ENDING...AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE IN THE DAY INTO
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
VERMONT. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW INCLUDED ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN AND
CENTRAL TACONICS UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY...
AS OF 435 PM EDT...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH OVER ERN PA AND THE DELMARVA REGION.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED IN SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A
PAIR OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE
FCST AREA. THESE IMPULSES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
ONE SHORT-WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL-ERN PA AND THE DELMARVA REGION...
WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT-WAVE OVER ERN KY AND THE PAN HANDLE OF VA.
THESE DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE SRN THIRD OR HALF OF THE FCST
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS HAS
THE BEST MLCAPES OF 500+ J/KG OVER THE SRN EXTREME WITH SBCAPES
OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE 0-6 K BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN AROUND 40
KTS. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK. ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITHOUT A STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM OVER MOST OF THE AREA
FURTHER NORTH FOR THE LATE PM AND EVENING WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AFTER 22Z...WE HAVE KEPT SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
DOWNPOURS...AS THE LEAD IMPULSE ALONG A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY GETS
CLOSER TO THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT. THESE AREAS ARE IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS /JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION/ AND THE
BERKSHIRES FOR POTENTIAL TRAINING STORMS...INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES...AND SATURATED SOILS FROM YESTERDAY. SRN VT COULD ALSO GET
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT VERY LITTLE FELL YESTERDAY. FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE TOMORROW-TOMORROW NIGHT THERE.
PWATS WILL BE ON THE RISE BEFORE LOWERING CONSIDERABLY TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH LAST NIGHT. PWATS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE
1.5 TO 2.0+ IN RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WITH SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE SULTRY IN THE STICKY
AIR MASS WITH GENERALLY MID 60S TO NEAR 70F WITH SOME SPOTTY U50S
TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BTWN 12Z-18Z OVER W-CNTRL NY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OF 100-120 KTS REMAINING UPSTREAM OVER ERN OH...WRN PA AND
WRN NY.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LOOKS TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WHERE WITH SOME SFC HEATING AN IMPRESSIVE
SBCAPE AXIS OF 1000-2000 J/KG SETS UP WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 40-50 KTS ACCORDING TO THE GFS. THE NAM HAS LESS
INSTABILITY WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG. A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OF
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE THAT COULD ORIENT INTO A
LINE IN THE SW FLOW WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STILL LOOK WEAK AT LESS THAN 6 C/KM. ALSO THE 0-1 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS OVER THE SRN EXTREME WITH LOW
LCL HEIGHTS. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS
AND AN ISOLD TORNADO TOO. AGAIN...THIS WOULD BE IN THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT CORRIDOR.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BE IN PLACE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AN IMPRESSIVE THETA-E RIDGE OF
330-338 K WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA AT H850. SOME TRAINING
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE S/SW FLOW AS THE H850 FLOW INCREASES
TO 25-35 KTS AT H850 SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXPANDED INTO SRN VT WITH CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE LATEST RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE GRAPHIC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCEEDING THE FFG VALUES FOR ALL OF WRN NEW ENGLAND PRIOR TO
00Z/WED...AS WELL AS SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN
THE MID 70S TO L80S.
TUESDAY NIGHT...A PERIOD OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK
SFC WAVE MAY MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ON THE TIMING. THE THETA-E RIDGE LINGERS THE
LONGEST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST OF 335 K AND HIGHER
AT H850. STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN MAY OCCUR OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF SRN NY. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS WERE
GRADUALLY REDUCED FROM NW TO SE DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U50S OVER THE WRN MOST ZONES WITH 60S
FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS EASTWARD.
WED-WED NIGHT...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY IN THE MORNING...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS MAY POP UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING. DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. MAY TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH M70S TO NEAR 80F IN MANY OF THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER WX WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F...EXCEPT U40S AND
L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE WEATHER. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION AND
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN FAR WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE
LOWER 80S...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A CONSENSUS IN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE THAT UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AND GREAT LAKES AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE
AS THE THE TIMING OF THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT...AND THIS FAR OUT...CANNOT GET TO SPECIFIC. SO...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL INCREASE COVERAGE OF RAIN TONIGHT...THEN THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING
BEFORE A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TOWARD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION...SOME SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING NEAR KPOU...WITH ONE LONE ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER NORTH OF
KALB. THE MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT KPOU WHERE THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...ENDING SOMETIME
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRUSH
KPSF LATE TONIGHT...TOWARD OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. KALB AND KGFL
COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SO
ACKNOWLEDGING VCSH THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...OVERNIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST DOWN TO THE MVFR LEVEL...BUT LESS CERTAIN
ABOUT IFR...SO NOT INDICATING IFR AT THIS TIME. AFTER 13Z...
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT A BROKEN CEILING COULD
DEVELOP JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET BY LATE MORNING. NEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY VERY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...SO INDICATING VCSH AT ALL SITES AFTER 16Z.
WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...UP TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...LESS THAN 6 KT TONIGHT...AND 6
KT TO 10 KT TOMORROW. OF COURSE WINDS COULD BE GUSTIER IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
SHOWERS ENDING...AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE IN THE DAY INTO
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT 85 TO 100 PERCENT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND ONLY LOWER TO 55 TO 85 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
TACONICS...AND ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA ALREADY RECEIVED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-3+
INCHES YESTERDAY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SE CATSKILLS...AND NW CT. AN ADDITIONAL 1.5 TO 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WATCH AREA.
NO MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD AT THIS TIME...BUT
PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC BASIN MAY GET IN THE ALERT STAGE.
THIS REGION WILL ALSO REMAIN IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO DEEPER
MOISTURE...WITH PERSISTENT PWAT/S NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
ALSO...MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WATCH AREA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES
OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE. SOME RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED ONE INCH/HOUR.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...WITH LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS MOST AT RISK.
OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SUCH AS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST. IF THE AXIS OF MOST PERSISTENT
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS FURTHER N AND W...THEN THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER IN TIME.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK...AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS
TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ058>061-
063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
140 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR FAIR AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION FROM 2 PM EDT MON THROUGH 6 AM EDT WED...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE FORECAST AREA WAS IN A BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH OR WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
LAST NIGHT. THE PWATS FELL CLOSE TO AN 1 INCH IN KALB...WHEREAS THE
12Z KOKX SOUNDING STILL HAS PWAT VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES /1.92
INCHES/ ON ITS 12Z SOUNDING. DESPITE THIS DRY AIR...A RETURN TO THE
HIGHER PWAT VALUES IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE SFC
DWPTS STILL REMAIN IN THE M60S TO NEAR 70F IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.
THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE TEMPS HAVE NOT RISEN WELL INTO THE 80S YET...AND
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD HAVE BEEN MADE. TEMPS WERE RAISED
A FEW DEGREES FROM KALB NORTHWARD WHERE MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED.
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A PAIR OF IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR
LATE THIS PM AND TONIGHT. ONE IS MOVING ACROSS SW PA AND NRN
WV...WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE OVER KY. THESE DISTURBANCES
MAY IMPACT THE SRN THIRD OR HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS HAS THE BEST MLCAPES OF
500+ J/KG OVER THE SRN EXTREME WITH SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG. THE 0-6
K BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN AROUND 40 KTS. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE WEAK. ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITHOUT A STRONG
FOCUSING MECHANISM OVER MOST OF THE AREA IN THE LATE PM WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HOWEVER...OVER THE SRN TIER AFTER
21Z...WE HAVE KEPT SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE DOWNPOURS...AS THE
LEAD IMPULSE ALONG A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER. A NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOX WAS PUT UP JUST SOUTH OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THESE AREAS ARE CURRENTLY IN A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS /JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION/ AND THE BERKSHIRES FOR POTENTIAL TRAINING STORMS...INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES...AND SATURATED SOILS FROM YESTERDAY.
MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S AND SOME SPOTTY
U80S IN THE VALLEYS... AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM ALBANY AND
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. TO THE N AND W...DEWPOINTS MAY FALL INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...BEFORE RISING ONCE AGAIN TOWARD SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF A RETREATING SFC TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN
AREAS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCE AGAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE TRAINING AND/OR
BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. LATER TONIGHT...THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DECREASE...ALTHOUGH SOME MAY
PERSIST...AND OR DEVELOP TO THE N AND W OF ALBANY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. IT
WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
60S...PERHAPS HOLDING NEAR OR ABOVE 70 IN SOME VALLEYS.
TUESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE QUITE AN ACTIVE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO POSSIBLE LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVE
KINEMATICS...INCLUDING THE REGION BECOMING PLACED CLOSER TO THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET TO THE NORTHWEST MAY
OVERCOME THIS LIMITATION. BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS...ESP WITHIN AND
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY COULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER STORM
ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE ROTATION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR DISCRETE CONVECTIVE CELLS TO DEVELOP
INITIALLY...BEFORE CONGEALING/MERGING INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
SO...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CLEARLY NEED TO BE WATCHED. IN
ADDITION...PWAT/S WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.75-2 INCH RANGE...ESP
ACROSS S/E AREAS...SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A THREAT INTO TUE
EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN MOST
AREAS...BUT SHOULD CONVECTION HOLD OFF AT ALL UNTIL MID OR LATE
AFTERNOON...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TUE NT...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WAVE MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...POTENTIALLY FURTHER INCREASING
THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESP FOR AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THESE AREAS.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
MIDNIGHT...WHILE POTENTIALLY LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS UNTIL
AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK WED. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.
WED-WED NT...SOME SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO WED AM ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. THEN...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING W OF THE
REGION...ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RETURN TO FAIR
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY REACHING
AROUND 80 IN VALLEYS...AND 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST
AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. THE
EXCEPTION LOOK TO BE SUNDAY...OTHERWISE HAVE POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE OR DRY.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FA ON FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...EXCEPT FOR SOME
UPPER 60S ACRS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE BELOW
NORMAL AS WELL AS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL INCREASE COVERAGE OF RAIN TONIGHT...THEN THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING
BEFORE A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TOWARD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION...SOME SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING NEAR KPOU...WITH ONE LONE ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER NORTH OF
KALB. THE MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT KPOU WHERE THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...ENDING SOMETIME
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRUSH
KPSF LATE TONIGHT...TOWARD OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. KALB AND KGFL
COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SO
ACKNOWLEDGING VCSH THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...OVERNIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST DOWN TO THE MVFR LEVEL...BUT LESS CERTAIN
ABOUT IFR...SO NOT INDICATING IFR AT THIS TIME. AFTER 13Z...
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT A BROKEN CEILING COULD
DEVELOP JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET BY LATE MORNING. NEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY VERY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...SO INDICATING VCSH AT ALL SITES AFTER 16Z.
WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...UP TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...LESS THAN 6 KT TONIGHT...AND 6
KT TO 10 KT TOMORROW. OF COURSE WINDS COULD BE GUSTIER IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NUMEROUS SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR FAIR AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SOUTHERN
TACONICS...NW CT AND WESTERN MA...
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA ALREADY RECEIVED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-2
INCHES SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS OF 3-4 INCHES REPORTED.
THIS REGION WILL ALSO REMAIN IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO DEEPER
MOISTURE...WITH PERSISTENT PWAT/S NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
ALSO...MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WATCH AREA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES
OF RAIN THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
POSSIBLE. SOME RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED ONE INCH/HOUR. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...WITH LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS MOST AT RISK.
OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THE AXIS
OF MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS FURTHER N AND
W...THEN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS WELL.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ058>061-
063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL/11
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
131 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR FAIR AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION FROM 2 PM EDT MON THROUGH 6 AM EDT WED...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE FORECAST WAS IN A BRIEF SUBSIDENCE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH OR WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
LAST NIGHT. THE PWATS FELL CLOSE TO AN 1 INCH IN KALB...WHEREAS
THE 12Z KOKX SOUNDING STILL HAS PWAT VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES /1.92
INCHES/ ON ITS 12Z SOUNDING. DESPITE THIS DRY AIR...A RETURN TO
THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE SFC DWPTS STILL REMAIN IN THE M60S TO NEAR 70F IN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.
THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE TEMPS HAVE NOT RISEN WELL INTO THE 80S YET...AND
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD HAVE BEEN MADE. TEMPS WERE RAISED
A FEW DEGREES FROM KALB NORTHWARD WHERE MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED.
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A PAIR OF IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR
LATE THIS PM AND TONIGHT. ONE IS MOVING ACROSS SW PA AND NRN
WV...WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE OVER KY. THESE DISTURBANCES
MAY IMPACT THE SRN THIRD OR HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS HAS THE BEST MLCAPES OF
500+ J/KG OVER THE SRN EXTREME WITH SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG. THE 0-6
K BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN AROUND 40 KTS. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE WEAK. ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITHOUT A STRONG
FOCUSING MECHANISM OVER MOST OF THE AREA IN THE LATE PM WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HOWEVER...OVER THE SRN TIER AFTER
21Z...WE HAVE KEPT SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE DOWNPOURS...AS THE
LEAD IMPULSE ALONG A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER. A NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOX WAS PUT UP JUST SOUTH OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THESE AREAS ARE CURRENTLY IN A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS /JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION/ AND THE BERKSHIRES FOR POTENTIAL TRAINING STORMS...INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES...AND SATURATED SOILS FROM YESTERDAY.
MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S AND SOME SPOTTY
U80S IN THE VALLEYS... AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM ALBANY AND
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. TO THE N AND W...DEWPOINTS MAY FALL INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...BEFORE RISING ONCE AGAIN TOWARD SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF A RETREATING SFC TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN
AREAS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCE AGAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE TRAINING AND/OR
BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. LATER TONIGHT...THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DECREASE...ALTHOUGH SOME MAY
PERSIST...AND OR DEVELOP TO THE N AND W OF ALBANY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. IT
WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
60S...PERHAPS HOLDING NEAR OR ABOVE 70 IN SOME VALLEYS.
TUESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE QUITE AN ACTIVE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO POSSIBLE LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVE
KINEMATICS...INCLUDING THE REGION BECOMING PLACED CLOSER TO THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET TO THE NORTHWEST MAY
OVERCOME THIS LIMITATION. BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS...ESP WITHIN AND
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY COULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER STORM
ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE ROTATION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR DISCRETE CONVECTIVE CELLS TO DEVELOP
INITIALLY...BEFORE CONGEALING/MERGING INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
SO...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CLEARLY NEED TO BE WATCHED. IN
ADDITION...PWAT/S WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.75-2 INCH RANGE...ESP
ACROSS S/E AREAS...SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A THREAT INTO TUE
EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN MOST
AREAS...BUT SHOULD CONVECTION HOLD OFF AT ALL UNTIL MID OR LATE
AFTERNOON...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TUE NT...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WAVE MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...POTENTIALLY FURTHER INCREASING
THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESP FOR AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THESE AREAS.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
MIDNIGHT...WHILE POTENTIALLY LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS UNTIL
AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK WED. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.
WED-WED NT...SOME SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO WED AM ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. THEN...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING W OF THE
REGION...ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RETURN TO FAIR
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY REACHING
AROUND 80 IN VALLEYS...AND 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST
AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. THE
EXCEPTION LOOK TO BE SUNDAY...OTHERWISE HAVE POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE OR DRY.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FA ON FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...EXCEPT FOR SOME
UPPER 60S ACRS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE BELOW
NORMAL AS WELL AS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
ESPECIALLY ACRS SRN AREAS. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z-14Z.
AFTER 13Z-14Z TODAY...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...BUT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE AROUND
KPOU/KPSF BUT ALL AREAS COULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
SO...ADDED VCSH AT ALL SITES.
FOR TODAY WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NUMEROUS SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR FAIR AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SOUTHERN
TACONICS...NW CT AND WESTERN MA...
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA ALREADY RECEIVED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1-2
INCHES SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS OF 3-4 INCHES REPORTED.
THIS REGION WILL ALSO REMAIN IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO DEEPER
MOISTURE...WITH PERSISTENT PWAT/S NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.
ALSO...MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WATCH AREA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES
OF RAIN THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
POSSIBLE. SOME RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED ONE INCH/HOUR. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...WITH LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS MOST AT RISK.
OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THE AXIS
OF MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS FURTHER N AND
W...THEN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS WELL.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ058>061-
063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL/11
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
101 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1030 AM CDT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BECOMING MORE CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH
SEVERAL FEATURES IN THE AREA TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT. FIRST IS AN
UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS BEEN ONGOING ALONG THE NE/KS
AND IA/MO BORDERS THE PAST FEW HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. SEVERAL SURFACE FEATURES ARE ALSO IN THE AREA. FIRST IS
A MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY THAT RUNS FROM NEAR GALESBURG INTO THE
SOUTHERN CHICAGO METRO AREA WITH UPPER 60S/70 DEWPOINTS TO THE
SOUTH AND AROUND 60 NORTH. A COOL FRONT HAS ALSO BEEN SAGGING
SOUTHWARD AND APPEARS TO BE CATCHING UP WITH THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY
NEAR GALESBURG BUT STRETCHES MORE TO THE NORTH INTO THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...EARLIER CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTH CHICAGO METRO HAS SPREAD SOME OUTFLOW SOUTHWARD
THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH OF AN INDICATION THAT IT STILL EXISTS.
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MOISTURE BOUNDARY AND MOVE EASTWARD. RADAR HAS STARTED TO SHOW
THIS OCCURRING IN THE LAST SEVERAL SCANS WITH CELLS POPPING FROM
WEST OF PEORIA INTO WESTERN KENDALL COUNTY...WHILE EXISTING
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT THAT
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE GIVEN THE INCREASING ASCENT AND INSTABILITY
SO CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY TAKE OVER. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA AND MAY NEED TO TWEAK UP TO
LIKELY FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PEAK COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF THE COVERAGE EXITING THE EASTERN CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY...INSTABILITY HAS BEEN INCREASING THROUGH
THE MORNING IN THE BETTER MOISTURE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE
STRONG THANKS TO A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX CURRENTLY OVERHEAD. SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS LOW/ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO
BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOLLOWED BY HAIL GIVEN THE PARAMETERS
BUT RAP ANALYSIS DOES SHOW HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL CAPE. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS ON THE LOW END WITH PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
THE LOWEST LEVELS BUT SOME LOW LEVEL ROTATION OF STORMS IS
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS THE OTHER CONCERN WITH PWATS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1.5 INCHES IF NOT A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE FAR SOUTH.
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE FOR AREAS FROM LIVINGSTON
AND FORD COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL METRO THAT SAW HEAVY
RAINS SATURDAY. BUT STORM MOVEMENT LOOKS PROGRESSIVE AT THIS
POINT...THOUGH A QUICK HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL.
MDB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
347 AM CDT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPS TODAY AND TUESDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW TEMP
MODERATION TREND FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR MID-JULY WITH A PAIR OF DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOWS
OVER ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN QUEBEC PER GOES VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING. WESTERN-MOST UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AND LIFTING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON THROUGH TONIGHT...LIFTING NORTHEAST
WITH THE UPPER CIRCULATION TUESDAY. CONSOLIDATION OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA
ESPECIALLY BY LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE UPPER
60S/AROUND 70 BY TUESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE
CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND. LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE WITHIN
5 DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COLDEST AIR...TEMPS +4C
AT 850 HPA AND -23C AT 500 HPA IN THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
IN ADDITION TO THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY SHOWING UP ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
IL EARLY THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A QUICK-MOVING SPEED MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW. HIGH-RES WRF/RAP/HRRR RUNS ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO DEVELOP SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE LIKELY TO REMAIN
FAIRLY ISOLATED. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH A COMBINATION OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING THROUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA APPEAR THE HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...AS WELL
AS GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN GENERAL WITH SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPS STILL IN THE LOW-MID 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE DURING THE MID-DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA...AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO
HELP TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FOCUS FOR GREATER SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE. THUS HAVE GENERALLY CARRIED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. PASSAGE OF VORT AXIS WITH SHORT WAVE
WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW EARLY THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SHOULD BRING
SHOWER THREAT TO AN END. A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THOUGH BY THAT
TIME THE UPPER TROUGH IS PULLING AWAY WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES
DEVELOPING.
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF RETREATING UPPER LOW...AND SLOWLY DRIFTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S AND
EVENTUALLY TO 80/LOW 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THE GFS IS NOTABLY
FURTHER NORTH AND DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE AND BRINGS THE THREAT OF
PRECIP BACK TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH HAVE
DISCOUNTED IT AS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AND PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH FOCUS THIS SYSTEM ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF ORGANIZED PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN TIERS OF STATES BY SUNDAY.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15THJULY 16TH
CHICAGO52 IN 196749 IN 1945
ROCKFORD45 IN 193046 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 N 190362 IN 1912
ROCKFORD64 IN 196268 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* ISOLATED SHRA MID AFTERNOON THRU LATE EVENING.
* GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THRU THIS EVENING.
* LOW MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
TSRA NOW PASSING EAST OF MDW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. SHOULD BE A FEW HOURS OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE COLDER AIR ALOFT
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS HAVE BEEN QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA WITH
AN OUTFLOW/LAKE BREEZE COMBINATION NEAR THE LAKE. WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN REMAIN WEST/NORTHWEST
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEEN/LOWER 20 KT
RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
THEN GUSTS WILL RETURN TUESDAY MORNING.
MVFR CIGS ARE QUITE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST UNDER THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS HEADED SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO
3-4KFT BY LATE MORNING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW FOR SHRA THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING.
* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM FOR LOW MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 14Z...
* TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
337 AM CDT
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS HAS CLEARED THE LAKE EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH LATER TODAY. WINDS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST BUT NOW ARE
BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT THEN VEER TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHWARD AND WILL BRING A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
LAKE MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PUSH OF
MUCH COOLER AIR. THIS WILL CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAKE IN QUITE A WHILE SUPPORTING THE MIXING OF STRONGER NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AND IT DOES APPEAR THAT 20 TO 25 KT
GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT THE INDIANA
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR WINDS AND
WAVES MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WEAKENS THROUGH THE WEEK AND MOVES OVER THE LAKE BY
WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH LIGHT SPEEDS
WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST.
NO CHANGES IN REASONING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 MB TEMPS COOLING TO AROUND
+5 OR +6 C INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LEADING TO A LAKE-850 DELTA T OF AROUND +11-12 C.
SOME OF THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF DEEP
INSTABILITY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE USING
TODAYS WATER TEMPS AT THE MID LAKE BUOYS. THESE CONDITIONS STILL
ARE ON THE LOWER END OF WATER SPOUT POTENTIAL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR NOW.
KMD/MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM
TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 PM MONDAY TO 1
PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1110 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1030 AM CDT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BECOMING MORE CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH
SEVERAL FEATURES IN THE AREA TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT. FIRST IS AN
UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS BEEN ONGOING ALONG THE NE/KS
AND IA/MO BORDERS THE PAST FEW HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. SEVERAL SURFACE FEATURES ARE ALSO IN THE AREA. FIRST IS
A MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY THAT RUNS FROM NEAR GALESBURG INTO THE
SOUTHERN CHICAGO METRO AREA WITH UPPER 60S/70 DEWPOINTS TO THE
SOUTH AND AROUND 60 NORTH. A COOL FRONT HAS ALSO BEEN SAGGING
SOUTHWARD AND APPEARS TO BE CATCHING UP WITH THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY
NEAR GALESBURG BUT STRETCHES MORE TO THE NORTH INTO THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...EARLIER CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTH CHICAGO METRO HAS SPREAD SOME OUTFLOW SOUTHWARD
THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH OF AN INDICATION THAT IT STILL EXISTS.
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MOISTURE BOUNDARY AND MOVE EASTWARD. RADAR HAS STARTED TO SHOW
THIS OCCURRING IN THE LAST SEVERAL SCANS WITH CELLS POPPING FROM
WEST OF PEORIA INTO WESTERN KENDALL COUNTY...WHILE EXISTING
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT THAT
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE GIVEN THE INCREASING ASCENT AND INSTABILITY
SO CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY TAKE OVER. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA AND MAY NEED TO TWEAK UP TO
LIKELY FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PEAK COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF THE COVERAGE EXITING THE EASTERN CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY...INSTABILITY HAS BEEN INCREASING THROUGH
THE MORNING IN THE BETTER MOISTURE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE
STRONG THANKS TO A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX CURRENTLY OVERHEAD. SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS LOW/ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO
BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOLLOWED BY HAIL GIVEN THE PARAMETERS
BUT RAP ANALYSIS DOES SHOW HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL CAPE. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS ON THE LOW END WITH PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
THE LOWEST LEVELS BUT SOME LOW LEVEL ROTATION OF STORMS IS
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS THE OTHER CONCERN WITH PWATS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1.5 INCHES IF NOT A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE FAR SOUTH.
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE FOR AREAS FROM LIVINGSTON
AND FORD COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL METRO THAT SAW HEAVY
RAINS SATURDAY. BUT STORM MOVEMENT LOOKS PROGRESSIVE AT THIS
POINT...THOUGH A QUICK HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL.
MDB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
347 AM CDT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPS TODAY AND TUESDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW TEMP
MODERATION TREND FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR MID-JULY WITH A PAIR OF DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOWS
OVER ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN QUEBEC PER GOES VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING. WESTERN-MOST UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AND LIFTING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON THROUGH TONIGHT...LIFTING NORTHEAST
WITH THE UPPER CIRCULATION TUESDAY. CONSOLIDATION OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA
ESPECIALLY BY LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE UPPER
60S/AROUND 70 BY TUESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE
CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND. LOW TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE WITHIN
5 DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COLDEST AIR...TEMPS +4C
AT 850 HPA AND -23C AT 500 HPA IN THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
IN ADDITION TO THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY SHOWING UP ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
IL EARLY THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A QUICK-MOVING SPEED MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW. HIGH-RES WRF/RAP/HRRR RUNS ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO DEVELOP SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE LIKELY TO REMAIN
FAIRLY ISOLATED. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH A COMBINATION OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING THROUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA APPEAR THE HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...AS WELL
AS GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN GENERAL WITH SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPS STILL IN THE LOW-MID 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE DURING THE MID-DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA...AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO
HELP TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FOCUS FOR GREATER SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE. THUS HAVE GENERALLY CARRIED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. PASSAGE OF VORT AXIS WITH SHORT WAVE
WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW EARLY THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SHOULD BRING
SHOWER THREAT TO AN END. A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THOUGH BY THAT
TIME THE UPPER TROUGH IS PULLING AWAY WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES
DEVELOPING.
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF RETREATING UPPER LOW...AND SLOWLY DRIFTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S AND
EVENTUALLY TO 80/LOW 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THE GFS IS NOTABLY
FURTHER NORTH AND DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE AND BRINGS THE THREAT OF
PRECIP BACK TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH HAVE
DISCOUNTED IT AS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AND PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH FOCUS THIS SYSTEM ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF ORGANIZED PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN TIERS OF STATES BY SUNDAY.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
347 AM CDT
RECORD LOW TEMPS AND RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
RECORD LOWS...
JULY 15THJULY 16TH
CHICAGO52 IN 196749 IN 1945
ROCKFORD45 IN 193046 IN 1945
RECORD LOW MAXES...
JULY 15TH JULY 16TH
CHICAGO 65 N 190362 IN 1912
ROCKFORD64 IN 196268 IN 1962
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE OF SHRA LATE AFTERNOON THRU LATE EVENING.
* GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EARLY AFTERNOON THRU MID EVENING.
* MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST IL LATE THIS MORNING WITH
A LINE OF TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IL NEAR PIA. THIS
LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST TOWARD THE I-80
CORRIDOR AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE
BEEN VARIABLE AND ERRATIC AT TIMES WITH OUTFLOWS FROM DECAYING
SHRA. PREVAILING WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER 10KTS AND
THEN SHIFT WEST/NORTHWEST WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON. CMS
PREVIOUS 14Z DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE TO FESTER ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST SHOWER MENTION
FOR NOW. HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES...
ITS POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED TSRA TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM/HI
RES GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-80 CORRIDOR. AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE CURRENTLY AND THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. HOW FAR INLAND
IT MOVES IS UNCERTAIN AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST AND PUSH ANY LAKE BREEZE BACK TO THE SHORE. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN SOME BEHIND THE FRONT AND COMBINED WITH THE COLDER
AIR ALOFT...LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL ALLOW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KT
RANGE...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER THROUGH SUNSET THOUGH GUSTS MAY
PERSIST WELL INTO THIS EVENING.
AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY MORNING. SPECIFIC CIGS ARE BIT DIFFICULT FROM THIS
DISTANCE BUT CIGS IN THE 1-2KFT RANGE LOOK REASONABLE. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA THIS MORNING...LOW FOR TSRA.
* LOW FOR SHRA THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING.
* LOW FOR WINDS UNTIL FROPA...HIGH FOR WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
* MEDIUM FOR MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 14Z...
* TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
337 AM CDT
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS HAS CLEARED THE LAKE EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH LATER TODAY. WINDS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST BUT NOW ARE
BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT THEN VEER TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHWARD AND WILL BRING A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
LAKE MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PUSH OF
MUCH COOLER AIR. THIS WILL CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAKE IN QUITE A WHILE SUPPORTING THE MIXING OF STRONGER NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AND IT DOES APPEAR THAT 20 TO 25 KT
GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT THE INDIANA
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR WINDS AND
WAVES MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WEAKENS THROUGH THE WEEK AND MOVES OVER THE LAKE BY
WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH LIGHT SPEEDS
WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST.
NO CHANGES IN REASONING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 MB TEMPS COOLING TO AROUND
+5 OR +6 C INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LEADING TO A LAKE-850 DELTA T OF AROUND +11-12 C.
SOME OF THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF DEEP
INSTABILITY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE USING
TODAYS WATER TEMPS AT THE MID LAKE BUOYS. THESE CONDITIONS STILL
ARE ON THE LOWER END OF WATER SPOUT POTENTIAL SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR NOW.
KMD/MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...10 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM
TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 PM MONDAY TO 1
PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1121 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A FRONT IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.
THE HRRR INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT STORMS JUST NORTH OF THE FA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z. PLAN TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN CASE THEY SURVIVE OR
DEVELOP AGAIN. BY THIS EVENING THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FA
PRODUCING SLIM CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT EXCEPT THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ONCE AGAIN LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP
POPS LOW FOR TUESDAY. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WHICH LIMIT
FORCING OVER THE AREA. FORCING IMPROVES SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS GOOD AS WELL.
PLAN TO CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE
NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GOOD FORCING AND MOISTURE CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA. HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS LOOK ON TRACK. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE FORCING STARTS MOVING EAST OF THE FA SO WILL
GO WITH DECREASING POPS.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S TODAY. EVEN COOLER
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S. THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 65. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID
50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON THURSDAY A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH
GRADUAL MODERATING OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES OVER ROUGHLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE REASONABLY GOOD TEMPORAL
AGREEMENT IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. ONE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF WEAK RIDGING AND THEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE SATURDAY. FORCING FROM THESE SHORTWAVES AND AT
LEAST MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND RISE TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOIST
UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN COLORADO WILL INITIATED
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO LIMITED
AREAL COVERAGE CHANCES OF DIRECTLY IMPACTING EITHER TERMINAL WILL
BE SLIM.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1228 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE MOVING TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS.
A SECONDARY LINE AS PROMISED BY THE HRRR HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE MODELS PUTS THIS LINE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THERE IS ANOTHER BATCH FORECAST FOR LATER
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL BE MUCH MORE
BENIGN THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. LOOKING AT THE
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WAYNE...MCCREARY...WHITLEY...SOUTHERN KNOT AND
HARLAN COUNTIES AS THEY HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER AND WILL HAVE BETTER
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. WITH ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS THIS MORNING...THE
THREAT OF ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED BUT IS NOT
ZERO AS SOME PEA SIZED HAIL WAS JUST REPORTED IN SOMERSET. THE HRRR
WAS FORECASTING THAT THE PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE
DECREASING AND THEN SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS BEEN UNDER
FORECASTING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN
NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
HOURLY GRIDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF RECENT OBSERVATION AND RADAR TRENDS. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR WAS ALSO FACTORED IN FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AT THIS POINT AHEAD OF A
BOUNDARY THAT IS STALL LING OUT AND BECOMING RATHER ILL DEFINED FROM
CENTRAL OH BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER. AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS A SOMEWHAT BROAD TROUGH ENCOMPASSES
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS WELL AS THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND ALSO CENTERED NEAR THE
FL PENINSULA. TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE CENTERED WITHIN THE
TROUGH...ONE NEARING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE OTHER TO ITS
EAST OVER QUEBEC. WEAK SHORTWAVES WERE ROTATING THROUGH THIS
TROUGH...WITH ONE ENTERING THE OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NEAR THE
STALLED BOUNDARY CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AS
WELL AS PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY REGION. AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ON OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER WAVE OR WAVES MOVING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SHOULD ALSO APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS COMBINATION WILL SEND
THE STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND WITH SOME
SURFACE HEATING AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR FORCING...ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TO WORK THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THIS MORNING...THE FOCUS
FOR STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD RESIDE CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KY. SOMEWHAT LESS INTENSE CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND OUTFLOWS.
FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT...CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KY OR
HAVE WEAKENED AND THEN REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND OR EASTERN KY.
PENDING SURFACE HEATING AND INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. PW WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY AND WITH RELATIVELY DEEP WARM
CLOUD DEPTH ANTICIPATED...RAINFALL RATES AROUND TWO INCHES PER OR OR
MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE REPEATED STORMS
COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME FLASH
FLOODING. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SO
SOILS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN BEFORE PROBLEMS
MIGHT DEVELOP. EXPECTED CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION AND EXTENT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS
SEEM TO POINT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA POISED TO GET THE
MOST HEATING THIS MORNING.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS IN MANY AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR TWO WORKS
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. DEEPER
MOISTURE BY TONIGHT SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...SO QPF IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE GREATER THAN
AREAS FURTHER NORTH. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY DEPARTS THE
REGION AND THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WITH A COLDER AIRMASS WORKING
INTO THE AREA AND CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS ON
WED WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE...A BREAK FROM
THE RECENT AROUND 90 TO LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER AND MOVES OUT OF THE
PLAINS. THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPARTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
INTO VIRGINIA TUESDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT...THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
FIRE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AS
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVERS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT EVENTUALLY
FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...AS A COOL AND DRY CANADIAN
AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED TO NOT REACH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN A SME
TO JKL TO SJS LINE THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. THEREAFTER...SO REDEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BRING AN OR BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IN
BOTH AREAS OF CONVECTION...MAINLY MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR IS ANTICIPATED.
FURTHER SATURATION AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO
IFR CIGS AFTER 6Z. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT PRECLUDES
GO WITH PREVAILING TSRA AT ANY POINT JUST YET.
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
435 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN QUEBEC TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A LOW ON THE SW FLANK OF THE
TROUGH LOCATED OVER NW WI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE LOW
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTED A BAND OF SHRA THROUGH
CNTRL/ERN CWA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA AS SBCAPE VALUES NEARED 500
J/KG. ALTHOUGH SHRA COVERAGE HAD DIMINISHED WIT MAINLY SCT/ISOLD
LIGHTER SHOWERS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE SHRA COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...ANY TSRA SHOULD ALSO END. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO
STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCT SHRA. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD LOWER MI...DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
WEAK FGEN/DEF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH RAIN COVERAGE/POPS INCREASING OVERNIGHT.
TUE...THE SHRA...ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE INTO THE TERRAIN OF N CNTRL
UPPER MI...WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES (NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE) WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S N DOWNWIND OF NNW FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS GIVEN US THE CHANCES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT REACHING THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER BY 06Z/16.
THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN U.P. CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF THE BROAD
TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL LINGERING/WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO KEEP
MAINLY CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE BETTER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME LIMITING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE EASTERN U.P.
WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. SEE DRIER AIR SLIDE
IN...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES TO COOL. PWAT VALUES
OVER THE WEST ARE PROGGED TO BE ROUGHLY 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...CREATING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING PROVIDED
WINDS LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES COULD BE QUITE CHILLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.P. WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S...WITH A FEW OF THE USUALLY COLDER LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE
MID 30S. IF WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH OVER THESE AREAS IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT PATCHY FROST COULD FORM. FOR A COMPARISON...NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE RIGHT AROUND THE MID 50S THIS TIME OF YEAR. ADDED PATCHY
FROST FOR PORTIONS OF THE INLAND WEST...HOWEVER...AM NOT EXPECTING
FROST TO BE WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WHILE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE NEAR THE
INFLECTION POINT OF THE TWO WITH HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE U.P. THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY AND TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY
EVENING...PLACING THE CWA IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR TEMPERATURES IS A GRADUAL RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL KEEPING CLOUD COVER FAIRLY
LIMITED...OTHER THAN SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE THE AREA IS
PROGGED TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AS UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGHING BEGINS
TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
TIME FRAME. THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND GENERAL PATTERN DIFFERENCE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO BE EXACT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE TROUGH MAY HAVE A BIT
OF TROUBLE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVER THE EAST...HAVE DECIDED TO
STICK CLOSELY TO THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT CMX AND IWD WITH SCT SHRA IN
THE AREA AHEAD OF DEEP MID LEVEL LOW. MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY ALSO DEVELOP
BRIEFLY AT SAW WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
VFR. AS THE COOLER AIR AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE IN TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED
AT SAW AND IWD. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUE MORNING...MPROVEMENT TO
MVFR IS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH INTO
THE WRN LAKES WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
SLIGHTLY AND EXTENDS A TROUGH WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE HURON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING S TO SW FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
412 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NRN QUEBEC TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A LOW ON THE SW FLANK OF THE
TROUGH LOCATED OVER NW WI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE LOW
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTED A BAND OF SHRA THROUGH
CNTRL/ERN CWA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA AS SBCAPE VALUES NEARED 500
J/KG. ALTHOUGH SHRA COVERAGE HAD DIMINISHED WIT MAINLY SCT/ISOLD
LIGHTER SHOWERS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE SHRA COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...ANY TSRA SHOULD ALSO END. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO
STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCT SHRA. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD LOWER MI...DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
WEAK FGEN/DEF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH RAIN COVERAGE/POPS INCREASING OVERNIGHT.
TUE...THE SHRA...ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE INTO THE TERRAIN OF N CNTRL
UPPER MI...WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES (NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE) WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S N DOWNWIND OF NNW FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS GIVEN US THE CHANCES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT REACHING THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER BY 06Z/16.
THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN U.P. CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF THE BROAD
TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL LINGERING/WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO KEEP
MAINLY CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE BETTER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME LIMITING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE EASTERN U.P.
WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. SEE DRIER AIR SLIDE
IN...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES TO COOL. PWAT VALUES
OVER THE WEST ARE PROGGED TO BE ROUGHLY 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...CREATING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING PROVIDED
WINDS LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES COULD BE QUITE CHILLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.P. WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S...WITH A FEW OF THE USUALLY COLDER LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE
MID 30S. IF WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH OVER THESE AREAS IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT PATCHY FROST COULD FORM. FOR A COMPARISON...NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE RIGHT AROUND THE MID 50S THIS TIME OF YEAR. ADDED PATCHY
FROST FOR PORTIONS OF THE INLAND WEST...HOWEVER...AM NOT EXPECTING
FROST TO BE WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WHILE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE NEAR THE
INFLECTION POINT OF THE TWO WITH HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE U.P. THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY AND TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY
EVENING...PLACING THE CWA IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR TEMPERATURES IS A GRADUAL RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL KEEPING CLOUD COVER FAIRLY
LIMITED...OTHER THAN SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE THE AREA IS
PROGGED TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AS UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGHING BEGINS
TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
TIME FRAME. THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND GENERAL PATTERN DIFFERENCE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO BE EXACT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE TROUGH MAY HAVE A BIT
OF TROUBLE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVER THE EAST...HAVE DECIDED TO
STICK CLOSELY TO THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT CMX AND IWD WITH SCT SHRA IN
THE AREA AHEAD OF DEEP MID LEVEL LOW. MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY ALSO DEVELOP
BRIEFLY AT SAW WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
VFR. AS THE COOLER AIR AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE IN TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED
AT SAW AND IWD. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUE MORNING...MPROVEMENT TO
MVFR IS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO EXITS EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND EXTENDS A TROUGH WESTWARD ACROSS
LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING S TO SW FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
409 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHOWERY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A
POTENT UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A STRONG MID/UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN-CENTRAL MN IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS TURN SOUTHEASTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ACCELERATING ENE AWAY ACROSS CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI HAS KICKED OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED AT BEST
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HORUS.
TODAY...THE OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK...WITH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO REFINE POPS BASED OFF THE
LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS AND NEW MODEL GUIDANCE. LOCAL 12KM WRF AND
NCEP HRRR MODELS HAVE HANDLED OVERNIGHT PRECIP EVOLUTION FAIRLY WELL
AND ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TODAYS PRECIP. THEREFORE...EMPLOYED
THOSE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM TO DETERMINE
PRECIP EVOLUTION TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPANDING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN CWA BY DAY BREAK.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FADE AS IT PULLS AWAY
FROM THE MAIN LOW. SOME CONCERNS HAVE APPEARED WITH THE LATEST WV
TRENDS OF THE MID/UPPER LOWER. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ANALYZING THE LOW A
TOUCH FARTHER EAST THAN SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WOULD INDICATE. THIS
PLACES SOME DOUBT ON THE PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND THE BULK OF THE FORCING DIGS FARTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WI. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON THIS TREND
WITH SUBSEQUENT RUNS...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
ONTONAGON TO MARQUETTE. MAY NEED TO DO THIS MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS DEPENDING ON THE LATEST OBS.
EVEN WITH A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK...SOME DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH
INCREASED FORCING WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
INDUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CWA. LIGHT WINDS
INITIALLY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE SHORELINE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BEFORE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WNW THIS AFTERNOON AND
STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT. WITH ALL FACTORS IN PLACE...BEST PRECIP
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM IRONWOOD TO NEGAUNEE TO
MANISTIQUE AFTER NOON.
MUCAPE VALUES REACH A MEAGER 200 J/KG IN A VERY NARROW PROFILE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST HALF THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A STRAY RUMBLE
OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE...DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN EXTREMELY LOW COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WITH SOME CAPE TO
WORK WITH...SHOWERS COULD BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE AT TIMES.
TONIGHT...A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA...THOUGH WITH WASHED OUT MID-LEVEL FORCING AROUND...HAVE
KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A DEFORMATION/FGEN REGION
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE NORTHWEST CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY. A
3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS THIS BAND MOVES
OVERHEAD...SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH-END CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.
AS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED FOR MANY DAYS...TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL
FOR MID-JULY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WITH
THE MAIN H8 COLD-CORE OF 4-5C PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...TEMPS
WERE A BIT TRICKY. LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE WI BORDER
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. DID INCREASE
TEMPS FAR EAST AS THEY SHOULD SEE SOME HEATING EARLY ON. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THEIR MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S AROUND LATE MORNING
BEFORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AND KEEP TEMPS STEADY...OR POSSIBLY
FALLING...THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS GIVEN US THE CHANCES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT REACHING THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER BY 06Z/16.
THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN U.P. CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF THE BROAD
TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL LINGERING/WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO KEEP
MAINLY CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE BETTER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME LIMITING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE EASTERN U.P.
WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. SEE DRIER AIR SLIDE
IN...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES TO COOL. PWAT VALUES
OVER THE WEST ARE PROGGED TO BE ROUGHLY 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...CREATING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING PROVIDED
WINDS LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES COULD BE QUITE CHILLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.P. WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S...WITH A FEW OF THE USUALLY COLDER LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE
MID 30S. IF WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH OVER THESE AREAS IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT PATCHY FROST COULD FORM. FOR A COMPARISON...NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE RIGHT AROUND THE MID 50S THIS TIME OF YEAR. ADDED PATCHY
FROST FOR PORTIONS OF THE INLAND WEST...HOWEVER...AM NOT EXPECTING
FROST TO BE WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WHILE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE NEAR THE
INFLECTION POINT OF THE TWO WITH HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE U.P. THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY AND TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY
EVENING...PLACING THE CWA IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR TEMPERATURES IS A GRADUAL RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL KEEPING CLOUD COVER FAIRLY
LIMITED...OTHER THAN SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE THE AREA IS
PROGGED TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AS UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGHING BEGINS
TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
TIME FRAME. THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND GENERAL PATTERN DIFFERENCE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO BE EXACT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE TROUGH MAY HAVE A BIT
OF TROUBLE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVER THE EAST...HAVE DECIDED TO
STICK CLOSELY TO THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT CMX AND IWD WITH SCT SHRA IN
THE AREA AHEAD OF DEEP MID LEVEL LOW. MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY ALSO DEVELOP
BRIEFLY AT SAW WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
VFR. AS THE COOLER AIR AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE IN TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED
AT SAW AND IWD. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUE MORNING...MPROVEMENT TO
MVFR IS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO EXITS EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND EXTENDS A TROUGH WESTWARD ACROSS
LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING S TO SW FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO
KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL. IT WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH
SHOWERS AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CREATE A WARMING TREND TO THE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW.
SATELLITE SHOWS A RATHER POTENT UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING IN OUR
DIRECTION. UPSTREAM SOUNDING FROM INL SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE TO THE
TROP. AS THIS COLD SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE RELATIVELY WARMER
GREAT LAKES IT WILL PICK UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO AN INCREASING AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND MORE SO
TUESDAY MORNING. THUS I AM FEATURING HIGHER THAN MOS POPS.
LOCATIONS FAVORED WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SEE THE HIGHEST POPS.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWING UP...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THUS I WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK IN THERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. NORTHWEST COUNTIES MAY
STAY IN THE 50S WITH RAIN TUESDAY. IF THE RAIN DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...MY
FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE TOO LOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP
IT DRY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO
VARY ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER
AND SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
DEEPER AND WOULD LIKELY HOLD OFF THE STORMS UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL
KEEP KEEP THE RISK FOR STORMS GOING FOR SUNDAY AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES AS A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION BRING IN A MILDER AIRMASS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AROUND CHICAGO AND
MOVING EAST. THESE MAY IMPACT KALAMAZOO...BATTLE CREEK AND JACKSON
THIS EVENING...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THREAT WILL STAY
SOUTH. SO TAFS GENERALLY FEATURE VFR WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT. AROUND DAYBREAK AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ACT TO LOWER THE CLOUD
BASES. IT APPEARS THAT THESE CEILINGS WILL IMPACT
AVIATORS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE IS ALSO A
SMALL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
STILL ON TRACK FOR BUILDING WAVES. FSL RUC SHOWS GREATER THAN 25
KNOTS ARRIVING 10Z TO 14Z TIMEFRAME...THEN PERSISTING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COUPLED WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AND AN UNSTABLE LAKE
SUPPORTS WAVES WELL OVER 4 FEET. NOT SURE WHY GLERL DOES NOT
REALLY SHOW THIS. IN ANY EVENT IT SHOULD BE A HAZARDOUS DAY FOR
SWIMMING AND BOATING WITH SMALL CRAFT. WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
QPF VALUES LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER A HALF IN FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGHEST VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW. GENERALLY THIS IS FOR THE LOWER HALF OF OUR RIVER BASINS.
NOT ENOUGH QPF IS FORECASTED TO CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE TO FLOOD
STAGE. LOOKS DRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
206 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
SHOWERY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A
POTENT UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A STRONG MID/UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN-CENTRAL MN IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS TURN SOUTHEASTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ACCELERATING ENE AWAY ACROSS CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI HAS KICKED OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED AT BEST
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HORUS.
TODAY...THE OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK...WITH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO REFINE POPS BASED OFF THE
LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS AND NEW MODEL GUIDANCE. LOCAL 12KM WRF AND
NCEP HRRR MODELS HAVE HANDLED OVERNIGHT PRECIP EVOLUTION FAIRLY WELL
AND ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TODAYS PRECIP. THEREFORE...EMPLOYED
THOSE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM TO DETERMINE
PRECIP EVOLUTION TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPANDING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN CWA BY DAY BREAK.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FADE AS IT PULLS AWAY
FROM THE MAIN LOW. SOME CONCERNS HAVE APPEARED WITH THE LATEST WV
TRENDS OF THE MID/UPPER LOWER. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ANALYZING THE LOW A
TOUCH FARTHER EAST THAN SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WOULD INDICATE. THIS
PLACES SOME DOUBT ON THE PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND THE BULK OF THE FORCING DIGS FARTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WI. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON THIS TREND
WITH SUBSEQUENT RUNS...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
ONTONAGON TO MARQUETTE. MAY NEED TO DO THIS MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS DEPENDING ON THE LATEST OBS.
EVEN WITH A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK...SOME DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH
INCREASED FORCING WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
INDUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CWA. LIGHT WINDS
INITIALLY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE SHORELINE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BEFORE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WNW THIS AFTERNOON AND
STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT. WITH ALL FACTORS IN PLACE...BEST PRECIP
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM IRONWOOD TO NEGAUNEE TO
MANISTIQUE AFTER NOON.
MUCAPE VALUES REACH A MEAGER 200 J/KG IN A VERY NARROW PROFILE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST HALF THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A STRAY RUMBLE
OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE...DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN EXTREMELY LOW COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WITH SOME CAPE TO
WORK WITH...SHOWERS COULD BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE AT TIMES.
TONIGHT...A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA...THOUGH WITH WASHED OUT MID-LEVEL FORCING AROUND...HAVE
KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A DEFORMATION/FGEN REGION
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE NORTHWEST CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY. A
3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS THIS BAND MOVES
OVERHEAD...SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH-END CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.
AS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED FOR MANY DAYS...TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL
FOR MID-JULY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WITH
THE MAIN H8 COLD-CORE OF 4-5C PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...TEMPS
WERE A BIT TRICKY. LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE WI BORDER
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. DID INCREASE
TEMPS FAR EAST AS THEY SHOULD SEE SOME HEATING EARLY ON. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THEIR MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S AROUND LATE MORNING
BEFORE SHOWERS DEVELOP AND KEEP TEMPS STEADY...OR POSSIBLY
FALLING...THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER LOWER MI 12Z TUE WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PAST THE CWA AT THAT POINT. THE TROUGH AND LOW MOVE EAST
TUE AND NORTHEAST ON WED AWAY FROM THE AREA. PCPN WILL BE SLOWLY
PULLING OUT ON TUE AND BY WED...SHOULD BE DRY. NAM SHOWS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE SLOWLY DEPARTING ON TUE. GFS SHOWS ABOUT THE SAME THING
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF AND WILL USE A BLEND OF THEM FOR THIS
FORECAST.
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
WESTERN CWA AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO DRY THEN FOR THE FORECAST TUE NIGHT THROUGH
WED NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
12Z THU. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THEN.
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE FOR FRI. ON SAT...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA FORMS AN UPPER LOW IN IT THAT MOVES INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN 12Z SAT. A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM SITS OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR SUN THEN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT CMX AND IWD WITH SCT SHRA IN
THE AREA AHEAD OF DEEP MID LEVEL LOW. MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY ALSO DEVELOP
BRIEFLY AT SAW WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
VFR. AS THE COOLER AIR AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE IN TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED
AT SAW AND IWD. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUE MORNING...MPROVEMENT TO
MVFR IS EXPECTED. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
EXPECT W TO NW WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO EXITS EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND EXTENDS A TROUGH WESTWARD ACROSS
LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING S TO SW FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
307 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE UPPER LOW AS OF 1945Z WAS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND SHOWERS
CONTINUED TO IMPACT MOST OF THE REGION. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY.
WE HAVE NOT DETECTED ANY LIGHTNING SO FAR ACROSS OUR CWA BUT THERE
WERE SOME STRONGER SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1-2
HOURS. MUCAPE VALUES RANGED FROM 100-500J/KG ACROSS THE CWA SO AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WE DO EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE SHOWERS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WE DID INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HOWEVER WE DID EVENTUALLY
DRY OUT MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY
TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE MID TO UPPER
FORTIES FOR MOST AREAS. THE RAP SUGGESTS LOWER CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO DIMINISH. THERE WERE STILL QUITE A BIT OF UPSTREAM CLOUDS.
IF WE DO CLEAR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...LOWS WILL HAVE TO BE
DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TUESDAY...BUT WE DO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS GOING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE SHOULD ALSO
SEE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT...RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
MANY WILL PROBABLY CONSIDER THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE WEEK PLEASANT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEM. THE GFS
HAS A NE TO SW ORIENTATED TROUGH MOVING SE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND INDICATES THE NORTHLAND WILL GET
SIGNIFICANT PCPN DURING THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND
GEM STALL THE TROUGH WELL NORTH OF THE NORTHLAND AND KEEP THE
NORTHLAND DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...AND TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PREFERENCE IS FOR THE ECMWF AND GEM SINCE
THESE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND VFR CIGS IN THE 2 TO 4 KFT RANGE COVERED NW
WISCONSIN AND NE MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW HOVERING OVER NW WISCONSIN. THERE WERE ALSO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT WNW TO NORTHERLY FLOW.
TERMINALS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE KHYR AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE MVFR CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
SOME GRADUAL LIFTING AND/OR SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD COVER IN NE
MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO THE SE. THE WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN LIGHT NNW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP
LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 48 68 49 73 / 60 10 10 0
INL 45 70 46 75 / 30 0 0 0
BRD 49 72 50 76 / 20 10 0 0
HYR 49 69 46 75 / 60 20 10 0
ASX 49 66 45 71 / 70 10 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
314 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD REMAINS ON TAP THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE STATE. THE REPLENISHMENT OF MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR AN ACTIVE TUESDAY AREA WIDE. THEN YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD STORMS. CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTER MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. ON
THURSDAY...WESTERN AREAS WILL DRY OUT SOME...BUT EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WILL STILL REMAIN ACTIVE. STORM COVERAGE WILL LESSEN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE EVENING ON TAP TONIGHT. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT RACING
DOWN THE PLAINS OF COLORADO WILL SOON MOVE INTO NE NM. STORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT AND EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NM PLAINS AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH AND FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. SEVERAL
CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE LOCAL WRF SHOW
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT. A COMBINATION OF
THE FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM AS
WELL. BOTTOM LINE IS ANYWHERE MAY RECEIVE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THIS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.
THE MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY ON TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW MUCH THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WORKED OVER FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION...BUT EVEN
IF IT IS A LATER START TOMORROW...IT STILL IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
ACTIVE. MUCH LIKE TONIGHT...THE LOCAL WRF IS SHOWING CONVECTION
FIRST DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN AND NE NM...AND STEERING FLOW WILL
TAKE THE STORMS SOUTHWARD...AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/BUMPER CAR
EFFECT WILL ALLOW STORM COVERAGE TO EXPAND AS THEY HEAD SOUTH.
SHOULD ALSO SEE STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...BUT
OTHER FOCI FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO NE NM ON WEDNESDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES TOWARD NM IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND LIFT FROM THE FRONT PLUS
A REPLENISHMENT OF MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN YET
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND HIGH TERRAIN.
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT COULD BE ARGUED FOR ALMOST
ANYWHERE. IF WIDESPREAD STORMS OCCUR TONIGHT...THE GROUND WILL BE
PRIMED...AKA SOILS MAY BECOME SATURATED...SUCH THAT ADDITIONAL
STORMS TUES/WED MAY LEAD TO QUICKER RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING.
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY SQUEAK THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO GIVEN MODEST NW FLOW
ALOFT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO WESTERN NM ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE BACKED UP TO THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NUMEROUS STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
THURSDAY...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND SEWD. THUS...FLOODING WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN OVER EASTERN NM.
AS THE UPPER HIGH NUDGES NEAR AND OVER NM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...STORM COVERAGE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE. SOME RECYCLING
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR...THUS...A FEW STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STORMS
WILL BE OVER. THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN OVER NM OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THUS THE BIGGER STORY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
MAY BE THE HEAT AND POTENTIAL FOR TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE
EAST.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK. INITIAL HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH
WETTING RAIN CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
DRYING/WARMING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
STORM COVERAGE WILL INTENSIFY REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PUSHES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. WETTING RAIN WILL BE COMMONPLACE MOST AREAS WITH A LARGE
FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE LARGE AREAS OF
WETTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE.
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT FOCUS
MECHANISM FOR WETTING RAIN AND MOST LIKELY FAVOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGHER SIDE WEDNESDAY BUT LOWER
SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO TUESDAY MOST AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
FOR THE COLD FRONT BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING IT FOR THE PAST
WEEK. WHAT IS LESS CONFIDENT IS HOW FAR WEST THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING IT STALLING WITHIN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OR JUST TO THE WEST THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE STAGE IS SET FOR A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND THE
PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS RISING. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS PACIFIC TROUGH A STRONG MID
LEVEL DRY INTRUSION FOUND ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WOULD SINK SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SPOTTY
HAINES 6 VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BUT BECOME MORE APPARENT AND EXPAND DURING THE
WEEKEND. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WOULD LESSEN AND AFTERNOON READINGS
WOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WOULD TREND BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE FOOTPRINT OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD ALSO SHRINK CONSIDERABLY AND FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD. OUTFLOW/DOWNDRAFT WIND STRENGTHS WOULD INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRYING.
BREEZIEST CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOW
WINDS...APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST.
LONG RANGE MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
BUILDING AND INTENSIFYING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BACK OVER THE AREA
THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS HEAT PUMP SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE
QUITE SIGNIFICANT AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PAINTING THE STRONGEST
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OF THE YEAR THUS FAR FOR THIS PERIOD. WOULD HAVE TO
EXPECT HEAT WAVE LIKE TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS WITH
EVENTUALLY SOME RELIEF FROM A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT UNDERCUTTING THE
HIGH ACROSS THE EAST. WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE OPPRESSIVE RIDGE AND MOST LIKELY
DOMINANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT THAT COULD CHANGE SOME DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE HIGH CENTER. COULD RETURN BACK
TO LATE JUNE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...INCLUDING STRONG
OUTFLOWS/DOWNDRAFTS...ALTHOUGH FUEL MOISTURE VALUES HAVE RISEN QUITE
A BIT THANKS TO RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SO FIRE DANGER
LEVELS WOULD BE TEMPERED SOME.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY/TONIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED THAT ALL TERMINAL SITES WOULD
BE IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY. SOME SITES HAVE MORE POTENTIAL THAN
OTHERS INCLUDING SOME VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHORT TERM HEAVY
RAIN. VRB GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO PLAGUE MANY OF THE SITES. MVFR
CIGS DUE TO PASSING STORMS WILL BE MOST POSSIBLE AT LVS/TCC DUE TO
COLD FRONTAL EFFECTS THERE. AS THE SH/TS DECLINE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME RESIDUAL LOW
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PLAINS SITES. TCC HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF OBSERVING THAT ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT LVS.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 65 91 66 92 / 50 40 40 20
DULCE........................... 53 83 54 85 / 50 50 50 40
CUBA............................ 57 83 56 83 / 50 60 60 40
GALLUP.......................... 59 86 61 85 / 60 50 50 30
EL MORRO........................ 56 80 55 80 / 50 50 60 50
GRANTS.......................... 58 85 58 84 / 50 50 60 40
QUEMADO......................... 57 80 57 80 / 50 50 50 50
GLENWOOD........................ 61 87 59 88 / 40 50 40 30
CHAMA........................... 49 79 49 78 / 60 60 60 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 81 59 80 / 50 40 50 40
PECOS........................... 54 77 56 77 / 70 60 50 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 78 52 78 / 60 50 50 40
RED RIVER....................... 47 70 46 71 / 60 60 60 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 48 74 47 74 / 60 60 50 60
TAOS............................ 56 81 54 81 / 50 50 50 40
MORA............................ 54 76 53 77 / 70 60 50 60
ESPANOLA........................ 61 85 61 86 / 50 40 50 30
SANTA FE........................ 57 81 59 83 / 60 50 50 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 86 60 87 / 50 50 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 86 65 86 / 50 50 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 89 68 89 / 50 40 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 90 66 90 / 50 40 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 89 67 90 / 50 40 50 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 92 66 92 / 50 30 50 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 90 67 91 / 50 40 50 30
SOCORRO......................... 68 93 68 93 / 50 30 40 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 85 59 86 / 50 50 50 40
TIJERAS......................... 59 85 60 85 / 50 50 50 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 82 58 82 / 60 60 50 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 80 58 82 / 70 60 50 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 83 61 84 / 60 40 50 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 85 64 86 / 50 40 40 40
RUIDOSO......................... 57 80 58 82 / 50 50 50 50
CAPULIN......................... 57 78 56 79 / 50 50 50 60
RATON........................... 58 81 57 82 / 50 50 50 50
SPRINGER........................ 58 82 58 84 / 60 50 50 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 79 57 81 / 70 60 50 50
CLAYTON......................... 60 82 61 85 / 60 40 50 50
ROY............................. 59 79 62 82 / 70 50 50 50
CONCHAS......................... 65 86 66 90 / 70 50 50 50
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 86 65 88 / 70 60 50 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 65 87 66 92 / 70 50 40 50
CLOVIS.......................... 63 83 63 89 / 70 50 50 40
PORTALES........................ 64 86 65 91 / 70 50 50 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 87 67 91 / 70 50 40 40
ROSWELL......................... 70 93 68 95 / 40 20 30 20
PICACHO......................... 63 86 65 88 / 40 30 40 40
ELK............................. 60 80 62 83 / 40 30 50 50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
249 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NOT CHANGES. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
SOON AS WE HAVE BEEN BUSY WITH STORM FOLLOWUP FROM YESTERDAY.
REFER TO THE LATEST PNS FOR THE CONFIRMATION OF AN EF1 TORNADO
FROM READING, NY YESTERDAY.
250 AM UPDATE... AFT WIDESPREAD SVR WX TDA WILL CATCH A
QUICK BREATH BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND STARTS THIS AFTN. H5 LOWS ARE
PINWHEELING ARND EACH OTHER ACRS CANADA LEAVING A MEAN TROF FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CWA RMNS IN A SOUPY AIRMASS WITH JUST A
1-3 DEGREE DWPT DEPRESSION. LGT WINDS AND CLRNG SKIES HV SET THE
STAGE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG DIFFUSE BNDRY FM NEW ENGLAND BACK INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE. 00Z NAM HAS
A HORRIBLE HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDS AND IS ALREADY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
CONVECTION ACRS SRN PA WHEREAS LATEST RUC HAS BETTER HANDLE. HV RMVD
POPS ACRS NEPA THRU 12Z WITH JUST ISOLD SHOWERS THRU 15Z AND THEN
INCRS TO LKLY TWD 18Z AS NEXT WV APPCHS FM THE SOUTHWEST. CAPES
EXPECTED TO RUN THE GAMUT FM ARND 100 (RAP) TO ~ 1000 (GFS AND LOCAL
WRF) ACRS SERN ZONES THIS AFTN. THIS DEPENDS ON T/TD VALUES BEING
HANDLED BY THE MODELS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GFS HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON SFC T/TD FIELDS WITH RUC BEING COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH
WITH TD VALUES AT 18Z OVR NEPA IN THE LWR 50S. HV SEEN THIS RECENTLY
IN THE RUC/RAP FIELDS WITH BLYR CONDS BEING TOO DRY, THUS DO NOT
TRUST THIS AND WL TEND MORE TWD GFS. HWVR, THINK GFS IS TOO BULLISH
ON HIGH TEMPS ACRS NEPA AND WL LEAN MORE TWD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS, WITH CAPE VALUES POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 800-900 J/KG OVR
NEPA FOR THIS AFTN.
THAT BEING SAID, HV GONE WITH LKLY THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A MONTICELLO TO SCRANTON LINE THIS AFTN. SHEAR WL NOT BE AS WELL
ORGANIZED TDA THUS THINKING THAT SVR STORMS WL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD,
THO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE HVY RAINFALL WITH
PW VALUES OF 1-2 SD AND POSSIBLY SLOW-MVG STORMS. THIS THREAT AREA
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL YDA WITH A STRIPE
OF 1-3 INCH STORM TOTAL QPF FM NRN BRADFORD THRU SRN BROOME INTO
EXTRM NRN SULLIVAN CNTY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THESE
AREAS THIS AFTN, THUS WL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FEEL THAT
THIS IS MORE WORTHY OF A SHORT-FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AFTER
CONVECTION DVLPS.
IN ADDITION TO NEPA AFTR A BRIEF BUBBLE HIGH TAKES SHAPE ACRS NRN
ZONES THIS MRNG, MODELS ARE HINTING A MESO-LOW DVLPS ACRS THE
FINGER LKS THIS AFTN. THIS WL LKLY LEAD TO AN ADDNL AREA OF LKLY
CONVECTION, THO NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE SVR AT THIS TIME AND WITH
PW VALUES ARND 1.5 INCHES LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING STRONG H2 SPEED MAX
LIFTING ACRS SRN CANADA THIS AFTN, WHICH WUD PLACE CWA IN
FAVORABLE RRQ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
AIRMASS WL CONTINUE TO BE SOGGY WITH CWA SITTING WELL INTO WMSECTOR
TONIGHT. SFC LOPRES CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR LK SUPERIOR WL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SET UP SHOP OVR LK HURON/GEORGIAN BAY AREA BY
06Z. THIS WL KEEP WVS RIDING UP IN SRLY FLOW AFFECTING THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER H2 SPEED MAX PROGGED TO IMPACT AREA MVG TWD AREA FM THE NW
BY 12Z. THIS WL SERVE TO EXPAND CHC THUNDER OVR MOST OF CWA AND
COUPLED WITH S/WVS RIDING NORTH ARND BASE OF UL TROF WL BE TUFF TO
PINPOINT WHERE BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION WL BE. THUS WL KEEP JUST GNRL
THUNDER IN AT THIS TIME.
SFC LOW WL MV UP INTO SRN ON AND QC LATE TUE AFTN AND OCCLUDE OUT AS
IT DOES SO. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON BNDRY MVG THRU WITH 00Z
GFS CONTINUING TO BE FASTER MVG DRY AIR INTO WRN ZONES AFT 18Z
TUESDAY WHEREAS GFS IS ABOUT 6 HRS QUICKER. INTERESTING THAT 00Z
EURO IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE NAM IS WITH DRIER AIR NOT MVG IN UNTIL
CLOSER TO 06Z WED. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT EURO IS SLOWEST OF
ALL MODELS TO EJECT H5 LOW OUT. WL SIDE MORE TWD NAM WHICH IS THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN WITH MVMNT OF FROPA.
BNDRY MVS THRU CWA TUE NGT TAKING PCPN WITH IT DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.
THIS BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH IT WITH MINS DIPPING INTO THE
50S BY WED MRNG. UL TROF WL TAKE ITS SWEET TIME MVG THRU CWA WITH
SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS WED AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE UNSEASONABLY STRONG OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTARL U.S. THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING A
PARADE OF SYSTEMS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
START OUT QUIET WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WARMING TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS OVER PA. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEING AT AVP. BRIEF PDS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. AFTER THE
SHOWERS END THIS EVENING AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY AT ELM. AFTER THE FOG CLEARS BY 15Z TUESDAY SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCT- BKN CU AROUND 5 KFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 18Z AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS EXCEPT LOCALLY STRONGER NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT THRU FRIDAY... MOSTLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
203 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NOT CHANGES. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
SOON AS WE HAVE BEEN BUSY WITH STORM FOLLOWUP FROM YESTERDAY.
REFER TO THE LATEST PNS FOR THE CONFIRMATION OF AN EF1 TORNADO
FROM READING, NY YESTERDAY.
250 AM UPDATE... AFT WIDESPREAD SVR WX TDA WILL CATCH A
QUICK BREATH BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND STARTS THIS AFTN. H5 LOWS ARE
PINWHEELING ARND EACH OTHER ACRS CANADA LEAVING A MEAN TROF FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CWA RMNS IN A SOUPY AIRMASS WITH JUST A
1-3 DEGREE DWPT DEPRESSION. LGT WINDS AND CLRNG SKIES HV SET THE
STAGE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG DIFFUSE BNDRY FM NEW ENGLAND BACK INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE. 00Z NAM HAS
A HORRIBLE HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDS AND IS ALREADY TOO FAR NORTH WITH
CONVECTION ACRS SRN PA WHEREAS LATEST RUC HAS BETTER HANDLE. HV RMVD
POPS ACRS NEPA THRU 12Z WITH JUST ISOLD SHOWERS THRU 15Z AND THEN
INCRS TO LKLY TWD 18Z AS NEXT WV APPCHS FM THE SOUTHWEST. CAPES
EXPECTED TO RUN THE GAMUT FM ARND 100 (RAP) TO ~ 1000 (GFS AND LOCAL
WRF) ACRS SERN ZONES THIS AFTN. THIS DEPENDS ON T/TD VALUES BEING
HANDLED BY THE MODELS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GFS HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON SFC T/TD FIELDS WITH RUC BEING COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH
WITH TD VALUES AT 18Z OVR NEPA IN THE LWR 50S. HV SEEN THIS RECENTLY
IN THE RUC/RAP FIELDS WITH BLYR CONDS BEING TOO DRY, THUS DO NOT
TRUST THIS AND WL TEND MORE TWD GFS. HWVR, THINK GFS IS TOO BULLISH
ON HIGH TEMPS ACRS NEPA AND WL LEAN MORE TWD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS, WITH CAPE VALUES POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 800-900 J/KG OVR
NEPA FOR THIS AFTN.
THAT BEING SAID, HV GONE WITH LKLY THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A MONTICELLO TO SCRANTON LINE THIS AFTN. SHEAR WL NOT BE AS WELL
ORGANIZED TDA THUS THINKING THAT SVR STORMS WL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD,
THO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE HVY RAINFALL WITH
PW VALUES OF 1-2 SD AND POSSIBLY SLOW-MVG STORMS. THIS THREAT AREA
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL YDA WITH A STRIPE
OF 1-3 INCH STORM TOTAL QPF FM NRN BRADFORD THRU SRN BROOME INTO
EXTRM NRN SULLIVAN CNTY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THESE
AREAS THIS AFTN, THUS WL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FEEL THAT
THIS IS MORE WORTHY OF A SHORT-FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AFTER
CONVECTION DVLPS.
IN ADDITION TO NEPA AFTR A BRIEF BUBBLE HIGH TAKES SHAPE ACRS NRN
ZONES THIS MRNG, MODELS ARE HINTING A MESO-LOW DVLPS ACRS THE
FINGER LKS THIS AFTN. THIS WL LKLY LEAD TO AN ADDNL AREA OF LKLY
CONVECTION, THO NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE SVR AT THIS TIME AND WITH
PW VALUES ARND 1.5 INCHES LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATING STRONG H2 SPEED MAX
LIFTING ACRS SRN CANADA THIS AFTN, WHICH WUD PLACE CWA IN
FAVORABLE RRQ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
AIRMASS WL CONTINUE TO BE SOGGY WITH CWA SITTING WELL INTO WMSECTOR
TONIGHT. SFC LOPRES CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR LK SUPERIOR WL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SET UP SHOP OVR LK HURON/GEORGIAN BAY AREA BY
06Z. THIS WL KEEP WVS RIDING UP IN SRLY FLOW AFFECTING THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER H2 SPEED MAX PROGGED TO IMPACT AREA MVG TWD AREA FM THE NW
BY 12Z. THIS WL SERVE TO EXPAND CHC THUNDER OVR MOST OF CWA AND
COUPLED WITH S/WVS RIDING NORTH ARND BASE OF UL TROF WL BE TUFF TO
PINPOINT WHERE BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION WL BE. THUS WL KEEP JUST GNRL
THUNDER IN AT THIS TIME.
SFC LOW WL MV UP INTO SRN ON AND QC LATE TUE AFTN AND OCCLUDE OUT AS
IT DOES SO. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON BNDRY MVG THRU WITH 00Z
GFS CONTINUING TO BE FASTER MVG DRY AIR INTO WRN ZONES AFT 18Z
TUESDAY WHEREAS GFS IS ABOUT 6 HRS QUICKER. INTERESTING THAT 00Z
EURO IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE NAM IS WITH DRIER AIR NOT MVG IN UNTIL
CLOSER TO 06Z WED. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT EURO IS SLOWEST OF
ALL MODELS TO EJECT H5 LOW OUT. WL SIDE MORE TWD NAM WHICH IS THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN WITH MVMNT OF FROPA.
BNDRY MVS THRU CWA TUE NGT TAKING PCPN WITH IT DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.
THIS BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH IT WITH MINS DIPPING INTO THE
50S BY WED MRNG. UL TROF WL TAKE ITS SWEET TIME MVG THRU CWA WITH
SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS WED AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
THE BIG STORY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPS, AND A POSSIBLE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DURING THIS PERIOD A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST BUT A POP UP
SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVER CENTRAL
TX, WE AREN`T QUITE OUT OF THE WOODS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS WE
HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AS THIS TROF MOVES EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT
MOISTURE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TIMING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOISTURE GETS IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE OLDER RUNS OF THE
GFS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO, BRINGING IN SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE EURO NOT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
WHATEVER THE CASE IT DOES APPEAR CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND ITSELF. ON THE FRONT END I PUT IN JUST A 20%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NEPA FRIDAY BUT SAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SAT/SUN.
IF THE PATTERN HOLDS CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED THIS
WEEKEND BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS OVER PA. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEING AT AVP. BRIEF PDS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. AFTER THE
SHOWERS END THIS EVENING AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY AT ELM. AFTER THE FOG CLEARS BY 15Z TUESDAY SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCT- BKN CU AROUND 5 KFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 18Z AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS EXCEPT LOCALLY STRONGER NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT THRU FRIDAY... MOSTLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1257 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFFSHORE TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY AND SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN DISSIPATE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES DOMINANT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM MONDAY...THE 3 KM HRRR AND NSSL WRF CONTINUES TO
INDICATE SOME CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE KEPT POPS AS IS WITH 30 PCT INLAND
AND 20 PCT NEAR THE COAST. NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MON...APPROACHING UPR TRF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL
LEAD TO DECENT SW FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH SOME INCREASE IN LIFT
LATE. WILL CONT WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHC POPS EARLY WITH CHC LATE AS
THE LIFT BEGINS TO REACH THE REGION. WILL BE A MILD/MUGGY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY TUES THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH TUES NIGHT HELPING TO PUSH LOWER HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE
REGION. A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL DRAG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION TUES INTO
WED. THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL BE SHUNTED WELL
OFFSHORE TUES THOUGH IT WILL HELP FOCUS A RICH SOUTHWESTERLY
MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TUES THROUGH WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TUES AND
MOVE INTO EASTERN NC WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS
RAMPING BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES LATE TUES INTO EARLY WED. MAINTAINED
TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES...TO LIKELY BY
TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW
DEGREES TUES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS INHIBITING MAXIMUM
INSOLATION...THOUGH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN ROUGHLY 1425
METERS. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE TUES AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING WHEN SLIGHTLY GREATER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. EXPECT HEAVIEST/WIDESPREAD PRECIP
TO OCCUR TUES NIGHT WHEN LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OF AROUND 17
G/KG AND PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH OFFSHORE WED BUT HAVE CONTINUED
SLOWLY DECREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST...AS WE WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY BY 00Z THURS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1405-1410 METERS WED WHICH YIELDS
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.
00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THURS INTO THURS
NIGHT KEEPING MOST OF EASTERN NC MOSTLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...MAINLY
EAST OF HWY 17. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT LEADING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BECOMES MORE DOMINANT SUN WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES IN MEAN SW FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS INLAND AT THE TAF
SITES...WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME MVFR FOG...WILL
KEEP OUT FOR NOW AS A DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD MIX THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH COULD PRODUCE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TUES THROUGH WED...WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS/VSBYS TUES NIGHT.
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...GENERALLY S/SSW WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS GRADIENT INCREASES
BETWEEN SHARPENING TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH OFFSHORE. SEAS ARE IN
THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE AND SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 3 TO 5
FEET. NO BIG CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUN...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. SW WINDS WILL RANGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN ALL
WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...10 KNOTS OR LESS..AS THE FRONT REMAINS OFFSHORE
THURS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND DIRECTION LATE THURS
INTO FRI...AS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS AS
EARLY AS THURS. WILL MAINTAIN A MORE EASTERLY TREND FOR WINDS
FRI. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT THURS INTO FRI. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
00Z WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG/TL
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/RF/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1259 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON TRACK AND SUPPORTED BY THE 12
UTC SUITE. JAMESTOWN HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF BREAKING THE COOLEST
HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORD FOR THE DAY OF 68 DEGREES SET IN 1937.
THE FORECAST HIGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS 67.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 824 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE 06 UTC GFS/NAM AND 11-12 UTC RAP ITERATIONS SUPPORT THE ONGOING
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED
OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO THE 13 UTC OBSERVED TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
MAIN CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WAS TO UP CLOUD COVER MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BASED UPON CURRENT SATELLITE. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD THEN BE ON THE DECREASE LATER TODAY AS LOW WORKS SOUTH AND
EAST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
MAINLY STAY OVER THOSE AREAS ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THROUGH
12-14Z THIS MORNING...CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA.
VERY UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LOW...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE CYCLONE +1-2 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS IS VERY
RARE FOR MID JULY. RESULTANT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
60S EAST TO AROUND 70 WEST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DEEP LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS WHILE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOPS. NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS AS
FLAT RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE SERIES OF UPPER
LOWS PUSH INTO THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES
SLIDING THROUGH OUR AREA STILL REMAINS TRICKY THOUGH MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT THE GREATEST POP CHANCES WILL COME IN THE FRIDAY
NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
VFR CUMULUS FIELDS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
308 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES BETWEEN TWO COLD FRONTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND WEST. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS THAT IS SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR
REGION. THIS UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY 45 KT OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR AND 1500 J/KG OF M/L CAPE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRYING TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED ACROSS THE
REGION EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON CONTAINED DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS.
THERE APPEARS TO NOW BE A POOL OF STABLE AIR BETWEEN THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION AND OUR AREA...WITH THE RAP SPC ANALYSIS INDICATING ONLY
500 J/KG OF M/L CAPE AT BEST ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH THE NEAR SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE RISE DUE
TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT THAT
MID LEVELS WILL SUFFICIENTLY MOISTEN AHEAD OF THIS LINE BEFORE IT
CROSSES EASTERN INDIANA INTO OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. CURRENT THINKING FROM THIS FORECASTER IS THAT CONVECTION
WILL BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS IT ENTERS OUR AREA...WITH SUFFICIENT
FORCING TO PRODUCE MAINLY SUB SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
OUR AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE CELLS WILL BE ACROSS OUR WEST...WHERE
CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH UNLIKELY
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILN CWA.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE 60S. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 50S BEFORE SUNRISE...DEEPER INTO THE
COLDER AIRMASS. THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER
60S AS THE FRONT MAY BE JUST CROSSING THOSE ZONES AROUND SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A CANADIAN AIRMASS THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOWER 70S DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR THE DATE.
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING
ON WEDNESDAY AND LAGGING COLD AIR ALOFT...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST OVERALL DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS OUR AREA.
AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO
MODIFY...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS EVENTUALLY PUSHING UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY SATURDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF IN REGARD
TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF STATES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LOWER END POPS WITH THIS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
OUR FA. THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF TRANSITIONS
TO SOMEWHAT MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED GFS ENDS UP BEING
RIGHT...WE WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING IFR. MORE CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THOSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT TAF SITES STARTING AT 21Z. ONCE THE
INITIAL BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES IN AND THEN WEAKENS WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE
TO 20 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SHIFT
IN DIRECTION TO WEST TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
608 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...BUT WILL KEEP CHC VALUES. RADAR SHOWS MULTIPLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY SERVING FOR TRIGGER FOR
FUTURE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...THE UPDATE WILL ATTEMPT TO FEATURE
TEMPERATURE CHANGES AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARIES.
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY... SBCAPES ACROSS THE CWA ARE AT LEAST 1000
J/KG WITH AREAS EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WIND FIELD
ALOFT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW INITIAL SIGNS OF INCREASING AS HEIGHTS
FALL OVER THE MIDWEST. ALSO... WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW IS EVIDENT IN
SURFACE WINDS DUE TO PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL MOVE
STEADILY EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT QUITE POSSIBLE. PER
THE RECENT MCD FROM SPC... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING NUMBER OF
SHOWERS... BUT WILL HAVE AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT AND CONVECTION POSSIBLY
TRIGGERED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTION. POPS WILL BE INCREASED AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES INTO MOUNTAINS.
HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS WILL EXIST ACROSS CWA ON TUESDAY... BUT
WILL LOWER POPS SOMEWHAT BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS FRONT
ADVANCES THROUGH THE PIEDMONT ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ZONES. LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...
BUT FAIRLY STRONG WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES MIGHT HELP ORGANIZE
CONVECTION TO THE EXTENT THAT DAMAGING WINDS.. AND POSSIBLY SMALL
HAIL... OCCUR. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM... LOWER
AND MIDDLE 70S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW THOSE OF
TODAY... BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE... 85 TO 90 ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT AND 75 TO 80 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIE FROM ABOUT CLT...THROUGH THE
UPSTATE INTO NE GA TUE EVENING. THEREFORE WE EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRYER AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
FRONT AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE AREA WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE
PRECIP. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE DRIVEN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON WED. CP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WED AND CONTROL THE WEATHER
THROUGH THU. MODELS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON WED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
THU EVENING PROVIDING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY THU...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE AN UP TICK IN CLOUDS AS WINDS VEER TO THE SE.
THE BIG STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL BREAK ANY RECORDS. THE
URRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST FOR THU MORNING HAS A LOW OF 57 AT AVL WITH
THE RECORD OF 54 AND 64 AT CLT WHERE THE RECROD IS 62.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 215 PM EDT MONDAY...BY THE END OF THE WEEK HEIGHTS WILL RISE
SOMEWHAT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEAR JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW SE TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO
SWING CROSS THE REGION ON SAT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SE U.S. INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND A SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ESTABLISHED...SOME
MAINLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT THE AREA ON SAT. ALSO...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL IMPROVE ON SATURDAY AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HENCE...IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ON SAT AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO
WPC`S LIKELY POPS. IT APPEARS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH SUN WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUING
SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME
MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE
BERMUDA HIGH BEGINS TO RE-EASTABLISH ITSELF. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD REMOVE CIN AROUND 16 TO 17Z
RESULTING IN RAPID CU AND TCU FORMATION AS RISING PARCELS TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE CAPE. CLOUD BASES WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6K FT
RANGE. GFS AND RAP CAPES ARE RATHER MODEST WHILE NAM IS MORE ROBUST
WITH VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD AFTER 17Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHARLOTTE PROFILER INDICATES SOUTHWEST
WIND OF AT LEAST 10 KT UP TO 4K FT LATE THIS MORNING... SO EXPECT
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND DIRECTION TO CONTINUE. IF LEE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON... WIND DIRECTION COULD
BECOME VARIABLE ALTHOUGH SPEED SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
REMAINDER TAF SITES... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD REMOVE CIN NEAR 15Z AT
KAVL AND BY 17Z AT REMAINDER TAF SITES RESULTING IN RAPID CU AND TCU
FORMATION AS RISING PARCELS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE CAPE. CLOUD
BASES WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6 K FT RANGE. GFS AND RAP CAPES ARE RATHER
MODEST WHILE NAM IS MORE ROBUST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS VICINITY KAVL WITH COVERAGE VICINITY OTHER AIRFIELDS
INCREASING DURING MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE WIND WILL BE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT ALTHOUGH NON-MOUNTAIN SITES COULD SEE
VARIABLE DIRECTION AND LIGHT SPEED BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OVER DUE
TO LEE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. VFR
WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
22-04Z 04-10Z 10-16Z 16-22Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 97%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 94% MED 69% MED 66%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY JULY 17...
AVL...54 IN 1939
CLT...62 IN 2004
GSP...60 IN 1886
RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY JULY 18...
AVL...54 IN 1925
CLT...62 IN 1896
GSP...60 IN 1886
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LGL/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...LGL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY... SBCAPES ACROSS THE CWA ARE AT LEAST 1000
J/KG WITH AREAS EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WIND FIELD
ALOFT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW INITIAL SIGNS OF INCREASING AS HEIGHTS
FALL OVER THE MIDWEST. ALSO... WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW IS EVIDENT IN
SURFACE WINDS DUE TO PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL MOVE
STEADILY EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT QUITE POSSIBLE. PER
THE RECENT MCD FROM SPC... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING NUMBER OF
SHOWERS... BUT WILL HAVE AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT AND CONVECTION POSSIBLY
TRIGGERED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTION. POPS WILL BE INCREASED AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES INTO MOUNTAINS.
HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS WILL EXIST ACROSS CWA ON TUESDAY... BUT
WILL LOWER POPS SOMEWHAT BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS FRONT
ADVANCES THROUGH THE PIEDMONT ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ZONES. LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...
BUT FAIRLY STRONG WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES MIGHT HELP ORGANIZE
CONVECTION TO THE EXTENT THAT DAMAGING WINDS.. AND POSSIBLY SMALL
HAIL... OCCUR. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM... LOWER
AND MIDDLE 70S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW THOSE OF
TODAY... BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE... 85 TO 90 ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT AND 75 TO 80 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIE FROM ABOUT CLT...THROUGH THE
UPSTATE INTO NE GA TUE EVENING. THEREFORE WE EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRYER AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
FRONT AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE AREA WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE
PRECIP. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE DRIVEN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON WED. CP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WED AND CONTROL THE WEATHER
THROUGH THU. MODELS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON WED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
THU EVENING PROVIDING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY THU...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE AN UP TICK IN CLOUDS AS WINDS VEER TO THE SE.
THE BIG STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL BREAK ANY RECORDS. THE
URRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST FOR THU MORNING HAS A LOW OF 57 AT AVL WITH
THE RECORD OF 54 AND 64 AT CLT WHERE THE RECROD IS 62.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 215 PM EDT MONDAY...BY THE END OF THE WEEK HEIGHTS WILL RISE
SOMEWHAT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEAR JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW SE TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO
SWING CROSS THE REGION ON SAT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SE U.S. INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND A SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ESTABLISHED...SOME
MAINLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT THE AREA ON SAT. ALSO...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL IMPROVE ON SATURDAY AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HENCE...IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ON SAT AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO
WPC`S LIKELY POPS. IT APPEARS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH SUN WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUING
SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME
MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE
BERMUDA HIGH BEGINS TO RE-EASTABLISH ITSELF. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD REMOVE CIN AROUND 16 TO 17Z
RESULTING IN RAPID CU AND TCU FORMATION AS RISING PARCELS TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE CAPE. CLOUD BASES WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6K FT
RANGE. GFS AND RAP CAPES ARE RATHER MODEST WHILE NAM IS MORE ROBUST
WITH VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD AFTER 17Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHARLOTTE PROFILER INDICATES SOUTHWEST
WIND OF AT LEAST 10 KT UP TO 4K FT LATE THIS MORNING... SO EXPECT
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND DIRECTION TO CONTINUE. IF LEE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON... WIND DIRECTION COULD
BECOME VARIABLE ALTHOUGH SPEED SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
REMAINDER TAF SITES... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD REMOVE CIN NEAR 15Z AT
KAVL AND BY 17Z AT REMAINDER TAF SITES RESULTING IN RAPID CU AND TCU
FORMATION AS RISING PARCELS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE CAPE. CLOUD
BASES WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6 K FT RANGE. GFS AND RAP CAPES ARE RATHER
MODEST WHILE NAM IS MORE ROBUST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS VICINITY KAVL WITH COVERAGE VICINITY OTHER AIRFIELDS
INCREASING DURING MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE WIND WILL BE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT ALTHOUGH NON-MOUNTAIN SITES COULD SEE
VARIABLE DIRECTION AND LIGHT SPEED BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OVER DUE
TO LEE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. VFR
WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-19Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% MED 75%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY JULY 17...
AVL...54 IN 1939
CLT...62 IN 2004
GSP...60 IN 1886
RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY JULY 18...
AVL...54 IN 1925
CLT...62 IN 1896
GSP...60 IN 1886
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...LGL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
241 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY... SBCAPES ACROSS THE CWA ARE AT LEAST 1000
J/KG WITH AREAS EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WIND FIELD
ALOFT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW INITIAL SIGNS OF INCREASING AS HEIGHTS
FALL OVER THE MIDWEST. ALSO... WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW IS EVIDENT IN
SURFACE WINDS DUE TO PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL MOVE
STEADILY EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT QUITE POSSIBLE. PER
THE RECENT MCD FROM SPC... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING NUMBER OF
SHOWERS... BUT WILL HAVE AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT AND CONVECTION POSSIBLY
TRIGGERED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTION. POPS WILL BE INCREASED AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES INTO MOUNTAINS.
HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS WILL EXIST ACROSS CWA ON TUESDAY... BUT
WILL LOWER POPS SOMEWHAT BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS FRONT
ADVANCES THROUGH THE PIEDMONT ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ZONES. LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...
BUT FAIRLY STRONG WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES MIGHT HELP ORGANIZE
CONVECTION TO THE EXTENT THAT DAMAGING WINDS.. AND POSSIBLY SMALL
HAIL... OCCUR. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM... LOWER
AND MIDDLE 70S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW THOSE OF
TODAY... BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE... 85 TO 90 ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT AND 75 TO 80 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIE FROM ABOUT CLT...THROUGH THE
UPSTATE INTO NE GA TUE EVENING. THEREFORE WE EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRYER AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
FRONT AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE AREA WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE
PRECIP. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE DRIVEN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON WED. CP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WED AND CONTROL THE WEATHER
THROUGH THU. MODELS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON WED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
THU EVENING PROVIDING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY THU...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE AN UP TICK IN CLOUDS AS WINDS VEER TO THE SE.
THE BIG STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL BREAK ANY RECORDS. THE
URRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST FOR THU MORNING HAS A LOW OF 57 AT AVL WITH
THE RECORD OF 54 AND 64 AT CLT WHERE THE RECROD IS 62.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 215 PM EDT MONDAY...BY THE END OF THE WEEK HEIGHTS WILL RISE
SOMEWHAT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEAR JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW SE TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO
SWING CROSS THE REGION ON SAT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SE U.S. INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND A SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ESTABLISHED...SOME
MAINLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT THE AREA ON SAT. ALSO...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL IMPROVE ON SATURDAY AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HENCE...IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ON SAT AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO
WPC`S LIKELY POPS. IT APPEARS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH SUN WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUING
SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME
MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE
BERMUDA HIGH BEGINS TO RE-EASTABLISH ITSELF. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BY SATURDAY THE GULF FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...WHILE
THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BEGINS TO WEAKEN. BY
SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE RETREATED NORTH...AND A WARM
MOIST AIR FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE NORMAL WEATHER TO THE
AREA.
INITIALLY...BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL IN THE COOL AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT. BY SATURDAY THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE LIMITED BY BOTH CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES START TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD REMOVE CIN AROUND 16 TO 17Z
RESULTING IN RAPID CU AND TCU FORMATION AS RISING PARCELS TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE CAPE. CLOUD BASES WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6K FT
RANGE. GFS AND RAP CAPES ARE RATHER MODEST WHILE NAM IS MORE ROBUST
WITH VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD AFTER 17Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHARLOTTE PROFILER INDICATES SOUTHWEST
WIND OF AT LEAST 10 KT UP TO 4K FT LATE THIS MORNING... SO EXPECT
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND DIRECTION TO CONTINUE. IF LEE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON... WIND DIRECTION COULD
BECOME VARIABLE ALTHOUGH SPEED SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
REMAINDER TAF SITES... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD REMOVE CIN NEAR 15Z AT
KAVL AND BY 17Z AT REMAINDER TAF SITES RESULTING IN RAPID CU AND TCU
FORMATION AS RISING PARCELS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE CAPE. CLOUD
BASES WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6 K FT RANGE. GFS AND RAP CAPES ARE RATHER
MODEST WHILE NAM IS MORE ROBUST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS VICINITY KAVL WITH COVERAGE VICINITY OTHER AIRFIELDS
INCREASING DURING MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE WIND WILL BE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT ALTHOUGH NON-MOUNTAIN SITES COULD SEE
VARIABLE DIRECTION AND LIGHT SPEED BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OVER DUE
TO LEE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. VFR
WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% MED 66%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY JULY 17...
AVL...54 IN 1939
CLT...62 IN 2004
GSP...60 IN 1886
RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY JULY 18...
AVL...54 IN 1925
CLT...62 IN 1896
GSP...60 IN 1886
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...LGL
CLIMATE...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
202 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER
WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE INTO THE PIEDMOTN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
AT 1030 AM EDT MONDAY... LATE MORNING MODEL PROFILES INDICATE
SUFFICIENT CAPE EXISTS FOR CONVECTIVE CELLS TO DEVELOP... AS SOON AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES SUFFICIENTLY TO
REMOVE CIN. PER THE CURRENT FORECAST... MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT AND BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. NOAA PROFILERS IN THE FOOTHILLS DISPLAY A LIGHT WEST WIND
NEAR THE SURFACE WHILE NC DENR CHARLOTTE PROFILER HAS A SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT UP TO ABOUT 4K FT THEN BASICALLY WEST ALOFT... PERHAPS A
SIGN OF LEE TROUGH BECOMING MORE EVIDENT THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY..AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL SWING SEWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SEWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE
INCREASING SW/WSW FLOW IN LIGHT OF TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEAKLY CAPPED MID
LEVEL INVERSION LAYER WILL BE PRESENT AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH
THE HELP OF INCREASING H85 DOWNSLOPE +15KTS SWLY WINDS. HENCE...THIS
WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY CONVECTION OVER THE
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...THE MTN ZONES WILL SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME AND BETTER
BUOYANCY. WE WILL THUS FEATURE 40-50 POPS IN THE MTNS WITH 20-30 POP
OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
SEWARD...MODELS AGREE THAT A LINE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS
IT CROSSES THE MTNS. THE LATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE SPC HAS BACKED OFF TO OUR WEST...THOUGH 5
PERCENT OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT STILL COVERS MUCH OF THE CWA. WITH
THAT SAID...POPS RAMP UP TO LIKELY OVER THE NC MTNS WITH LOW END
CHANCE OVER THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIE FROM ABOUT CLT...THROUGH THE
UPSTATE INTO NE GA TUE EVENING. THEREFORE WE EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRYER AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
FRONT AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE AREA WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE
PRECIP. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE DRIVEN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON WED. CP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WED AND CONTROL THE WEATHER
THROUGH THU. MODELS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON WED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
THU EVENING PROVIDING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY THU...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE AN UP TICK IN CLOUDS AS WINDS VEER TO THE SE.
THE BIG STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE TEMPS WILL BREAK ANY RECORDS. THE
URRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST FOR THU MORNING HAS A LOW OF 57 AT AVL WITH
THE RECORD OF 54 AND 64 AT CLT WHERE THE RECROD IS 62.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 215 PM EDT MONDAY...BY THE END OF THE WEEK HEIGHTS WILL RISE
SOMEWHAT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEAR JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW SE TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO
SWING CROSS THE REGION ON SAT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SE U.S. INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND A SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ESTABLISHED...SOME
MAINLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT THE AREA ON SAT. ALSO...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL IMPROVE ON SATURDAY AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. HENCE...IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ON SAT AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO
WPC`S LIKELY POPS. IT APPEARS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH SUN WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUING
SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME
MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE
BERMUDA HIGH BEGINS TO RE-EASTABLISH ITSELF. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BY SATURDAY THE GULF FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...WHILE
THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BEGINS TO WEAKEN. BY
SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE RETREATED NORTH...AND A WARM
MOIST AIR FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE NORMAL WEATHER TO THE
AREA.
INITIALLY...BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL IN THE COOL AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT. BY SATURDAY THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE LIMITED BY BOTH CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES START TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD REMOVE CIN AROUND 16 TO 17Z
RESULTING IN RAPID CU AND TCU FORMATION AS RISING PARCELS TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE CAPE. CLOUD BASES WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6K FT
RANGE. GFS AND RAP CAPES ARE RATHER MODEST WHILE NAM IS MORE ROBUST
WITH VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD AFTER 17Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHARLOTTE PROFILER INDICATES SOUTHWEST
WIND OF AT LEAST 10 KT UP TO 4K FT LATE THIS MORNING... SO EXPECT
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND DIRECTION TO CONTINUE. IF LEE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON... WIND DIRECTION COULD
BECOME VARIABLE ALTHOUGH SPEED SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
REMAINDER TAF SITES... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD REMOVE CIN NEAR 15Z AT
KAVL AND BY 17Z AT REMAINDER TAF SITES RESULTING IN RAPID CU AND TCU
FORMATION AS RISING PARCELS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE CAPE. CLOUD
BASES WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 6 K FT RANGE. GFS AND RAP CAPES ARE RATHER
MODEST WHILE NAM IS MORE ROBUST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS VICINITY KAVL WITH COVERAGE VICINITY OTHER AIRFIELDS
INCREASING DURING MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE WIND WILL BE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT ALTHOUGH NON-MOUNTAIN SITES COULD SEE
VARIABLE DIRECTION AND LIGHT SPEED BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OVER DUE
TO LEE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. VFR
WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% MED 66%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1211 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...
&&
.AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SE TX TODAY. THIS
HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
MAINLY EAST OF KGLS AND THEN W/SW OF LBX. HIGHER MOISTURE OF
1.8-1.9 INCH PRECIP WATER REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH LOWER
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE HOUSTON AREA. CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO COASTAL TERMINALS SO WILL CARRY A SHORT 3-4HR WINDOW
OF VCTS FOR KIAH SOUTHWARD ALTHOUGH KIAH MAY NOT BE AFFECTED BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH. WILL KEEP CIGS VFR AS WELL. TONIGHT EXPECT VFR CIGS
AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FRONT/LINE OF STORMS PUSHING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. NAM/WRF MODEL RUNS SHOW SOMETHING MOVING INTO
THE AREA SO STARTED A TREND FOR TIMING OF TSRA. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
IF TSRA ARE DISSIPATING AND IF THEY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA. THINK STILL PRUDENT TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TYPE
OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE ADJUSTED WITH
FUTURE TAF UPDATES.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TO POPS AND WEATHER FOR TODAY.
40
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AT MID
MORNING. THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIFFERED TODAY...WITH THE
GFSBUFR DRIER THAN THE NAMBUFR. THE NAMBUFR VERIFIED CLOSER TO THE
UPPER AIR SITES...HOWEVER BOTH INDICATED DRIER CONDITIONS AND LESS
CAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THAN TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID
NOTE THAT THE HRRR WAS VERIFYING AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY AS WELL.
MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD START NEAR THE COAST AND MOVE INLAND AS THE
SEABREEZE COMBINES WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW. THE NAM
SHEARS OUT THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TODAY...WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND COASTAL AREAS.
WITH THAT IN MIND...THE ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TWEAK THE POPS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES. KEPT THE 30
PERCENT POPS IN PLACE. ALSO KEPT THE 10 PERCENT POPS FROM HOUSTON
COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO THE CLL AREA.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 95 74 95 76 / 20 30 30 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 77 94 75 94 76 / 20 40 20 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 90 81 91 82 / 10 40 30 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
255 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...SHOWER
CHANCES TUESDAY...AND VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS OF 3 PM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH RAP 500 MB HEIGHTS
SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVING INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE STRONG COOLING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE DAYTIME
HEATING WAS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.
TEMPERATURES WERE HELD IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH A STEADY NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH. CERTAINLY THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOME
AREAS TODAY HAS THE LOOK AND FEEL MORE TYPICAL OF OCTOBER
14...NOT JULY 14.
QUICK PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY THIS EVENING AND
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW ANY LINGERING SHOWERS /
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SMALL CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH RESIDES CLOSER TO THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR LARGE STRATUS DECK
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...THAT IS PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GFS/NAM RH FIELDS SHOW THIS CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. DESPITE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES OF -1 TO -2...AND THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MASS / +4 TO
+6C / OVERHEAD...SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER IS
LIKELY TO KEEP READINGS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. PLAN ON LOWS TO VARY A
FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 50.
FOR TUESDAY...LITTLE MODERATION IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP
THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER CONTINUING. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY MOVES INTO MICHIGAN...AND AT THE SURFACE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. COULD
NOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER ALONG AND EAST OF MS RIVER AS
SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED CUMULUS BY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS MORE FAVORABLE. USED BIAS-
CORRECTED GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS COOLER READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SOME OF THE MORE RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
VARY FROM LOW/MID 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS...TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.
INTRODUCED PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MS AND WISCONSIN RIVERS...GIVEN
ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR MASS...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 3 TO 3.5 KM AS
SEEN FROM NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND RECENT WET CONDITIONS.
WHILE MID JULY IS NOT THE FAVORED TIME FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG...FEEL
THAT THE MORE PRONE AREAS ALONG THE MS AND WISCONSIN RIVERS WILL
SEE SOME FOG.
BENIGN WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH MAIN WEATHER FEATURE BEING
THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. PLAN ON SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EACH DAY...LIGHT WINDS...AND A DRIER AIR MASS. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...AND LOWS IN THE
50S. OVERALL...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE 14.12Z GUIDANCE BEGIN BY
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE GFS SWINGS THIS FEATURE THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...MOISTURE TRANSPORT RETURN IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE AND THERE IS A LACK OF INSTABILITY AS WELL. CONSENSUS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY LOOK GOOD AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVER BY THE WEEKEND...THOUGH STILL
REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...OR IN THE LOW
80S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
THE TAF SITES. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING AS
STRATUS PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. PLAN ON MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH BKN-OVC
CEILINGS WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT. ALSO...WINDS
WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 14 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 29 KTS ARE EXPECTED. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING. PLAN ON VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
FOR LA CROSSE...
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 70. RECORD 68 IN 1962
FOR ROCHESTER...
TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 67. RECORD 67 IN 1962
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP
CLIMATE......AJ/RRS/ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
346 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
PRETTY QUIET AFTN ACROSS THE CWA WITH MUCH OF THE STORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO. THE AIRMASS IS MORE STABLE TODAY WITH CAPE VALUES
GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG...THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER IN SOUTHWEST LARAMIE COUNTY WHERE CAPES ARE UP TO 1000
J/KG. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND ANY STORMS THAN INITIATE ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS
NORTHERN IDAHO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO WY ON
TUES WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER CARBON COUNTY IN THE AFTN. SFC WINDS
GO SOUTHEASTERLY TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE MORNING
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION. CAPE VALUES ARE
UP TO 1250-1500 BY THE AFTN FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD TO
ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER. BULK SHEAR IS EXCELLENT (50-55 KTS) DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THUS IT IS CONTINUING
TO LOOK LIKE AN ACTIVE SVR DAY IN SOUTHEAST WY AND LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDS. STORMS THAT INITIATE ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE WILL TEND TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OR EVEN TO THE
SOUTH IN THE CASE OF A RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELL. HAVE HIGH POPS (40-50
PERCENT) EXTENDING THROUGH MOST OF TUES NIGHT AS THE AREA WILL
STILL BE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
SHORTWAVE IS STILL OVERHEAD ON WED...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LESS THAN TUES. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON WED
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
COOLED TEMPS ON WED A FEW DEGREES SUCH THAT MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOT
GETTING MUCH ABOVE 70 DEGREES. CAPE VALUES DO NOT REALLY GET ABOVE
750...SO WHILE THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING...THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE REDUCED COMPARED TO
TUES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TIMEFRAME IS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB THIS WEEK...AND WHEN THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT:
THE MODELS ARE STARTING SHOW A FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS SHOWING A VERY SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ON THURSDAY
WITH SOME FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS
NOT AS BULLISH ON THE MOISTURE EXCEPT OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE MAIN
PROBLEM IS LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO LACK OF RETURN
FLOW FROM THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S AND 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. WE FOLLOWED
CLOSEST TO THE ENSEMBLE HIGHS WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE
700MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES WITH DEVIATIONS OF 2 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
FRIDAY-MONDAY:
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS ARE ALL SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVIDENCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS TROF WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TIMING OF THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES
WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL INDUCE GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY WILL BE
DECENT WITH DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE WEST TO EAST. BEYOND
THIS TIMEFRAME...IT APPEARS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
WARMUP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH 700MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO THE
SURGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF ELEVATED LIFT. IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL
MOST LIKELY IMPACT THE BFF AND SNY TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. THE
SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. &&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A WARMUP WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINIMUM AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1216 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND A STRONG JET STREAM DEVELOPING ALOFT.
MOISTURE PROFILES HAVE NOT BEEN A PROBLEM IN THIS PATTERN RECENTLY
WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COLD
FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS DUE TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS
WEEK. BEHIND THIS FRONT...AN ATYPICAL 1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A THERMAL LOW WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...RESULTING IN GOOD UPSLOPE EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE BY
TONIGHT. KEPT A RISK OF WIDELY SCATTERED TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
ALONG AND WEST OF I25 TODAY DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT
ACTING AS A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND DEEP ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE AND
SOME LLVL INSTABILITY. COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT
TODAY DUE TO QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT BETWEEN 15K TO 20K FEET
MSL. HOWEVER...THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS NEAR 90 SOUTH OF RAWLINS.
ON TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND
WYOMING. WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA...COMBINED WITH DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...THERE IS CONCERN OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH FLOODING
BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH ALONG WITH A STRONG JET FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO TAKE ITS TIME
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...SO EXPECTED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS
SHOW RESPECTABLE QPF VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WHERE MANY LOCATIONS DO NOT NEED THE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES DUE TO
AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. IN ADDITION...THE GFS...ECMWF AND
NAM ALL SHOW SIGNIFICANT 0-6KM SHEAR AND EVEN 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF
0-2KM SHEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA.
CONCERN OF SEVERE TSTORMS IS GROWING FOR TUESDAY...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT LIKELY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS ALL MODELS SHOW THE FEATURE REMAINING OVER CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN WYOMING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT TSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE DUE TO COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70
DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
DRY THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING BUT
THAT WOULD BE ABOUT IT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY. FRIDAY
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY BUT UPPER LEVEL JET INCREASING SLIGHTLY
IN STRENGTH AND MODELS HINTING AS WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MAIN CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE PLAINS.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. AGAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BUT THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAYS SHOULD BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO THE
SURGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF ELEVATED LIFT. IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL
MOST LIKELY IMPACT THE BFF AND SNY TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. THE
SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. &&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT