Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/09/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
834 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE 00Z-06Z TIME
FRAME AS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS SITUATED ACROSS THE MIDDLE THIRD
OF THE STATE ROUGHLY. SVR TSTORM WATCH 406 IS IN EFFECT FOR
SEVERAL COUNTIES ACROSS THE FA THROUGH 11 PM LOCAL TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/
AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTH ARKANSAS AND IS SLOWLY SINKING
SOUTHWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE FRONT PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THOUGH WEAKENING WILL BEGIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH EARLIER
TODAY AS A DECAYING MCS MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI. OTHER THAN A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...ALL PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
FEATURE IS PRETTY MUCH SAID AND DONE. ATTENTION WILL TURN BACK A
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EXTENDING BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF A LONG WAVE
TROUGH...CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AT THIS TIME. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL HELP TO
MOVE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT INTO THE STATE. THE HRRR ONCE AGAIN
DID A GOOD JOB IN THE VERY NEAR TERM AND ONCE AGAIN THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT VERSUS OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS AND THE
FORECAST WILL BE TRENDED THIS WAY.
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE STATE THIS EVENING AND SAG TO THE SOUTH...REACHING CENTRAL
SECTIONS BY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
ON WHERE THIS FRONT EVENTUALLY ENDS UP BUT CURRENT THINKING IS IT
WILL REACH THE LOUISIANA BORDER LATE WEDNESDAY. AFTER STALLING
BRIEFLY THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO GETS REESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH AND
THEN BACK OUT OF THE STATE. A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED IN SPITE OF PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES POOLING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. STILL WITH THIS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW GUIDANCE AND WITH EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WOULD EXPECT THIS CONTINUE. AS
SUCH...GUIDANCE WILL BE UNDERCUT A FEW DEGREES.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN LESSENING OVER THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE AS UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A MORE
NWRLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS HOWEVER...TEMPS ON
SAT WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OVER 100 IN MANY SPOTS. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO REMAIN
LOW...WITH MAYBE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SAT. SUN WILL
ALSO REMAIN WARM...BUT COULD SEE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
AREA AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO FALL SOME. KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR SUN
AS WELL...THOUGH THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. ALSO HAVE TEMPS COOLING WITH
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES...AND EVEN FROM NRLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST IF THE FRONT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY
THAT TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 69 87 67 89 / 40 20 10 10
CAMDEN AR 73 93 72 91 / 50 50 40 30
HARRISON AR 66 87 66 87 / 20 10 10 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 73 91 72 91 / 80 40 30 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 73 90 70 90 / 80 40 20 20
MONTICELLO AR 73 92 72 89 / 50 50 40 20
MOUNT IDA AR 73 91 71 91 / 80 40 30 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 65 87 66 87 / 20 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 70 86 67 89 / 50 20 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 73 91 72 90 / 70 50 30 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 71 88 69 89 / 90 30 20 20
SEARCY AR 71 88 68 89 / 90 30 20 20
STUTTGART AR 73 89 70 90 / 80 40 20 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
226
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
648 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTH ARKNASAS AND IS SLOWLY SINKING
SOUTHWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE FRONT PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THOUGH WEAKENING WILL BEGIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH EARLIER
TODAY AS A DECAYING MCS MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI. OTHER THAN A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...ALL PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
FEATURE IS PRETTY MUCH SAID AND DONE. ATTENTION WILL TURN BACK A
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EXTENDING BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF A LONG WAVE
TROUGH...CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AT THIS TIME. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL HELP TO
MOVE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT INTO THE STATE. THE HRRR ONCE AGAIN
DID A GOOD JOB IN THE VERY NEAR TERM AND ONCE AGAIN THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT VERSUS OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS AND THE
FORECAST WILL BE TRENDED THIS WAY.
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE STATE THIS EVENING AND SAG TO THE SOUTH...REACHING CENTRAL
SECTIONS BY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
ON WHERE THIS FRONT EVENTUALLY ENDS UP BUT CURRENT THINKING IS IT
WILL REACH THE LOUISIANA BORDER LATE WEDNESDAY. AFTER STALLING
BRIEFLY THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO GETS REESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH AND
THEN BACK OUT OF THE STATE. A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED IN SPITE OF PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES POOLING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. STILL WITH THIS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW GUIDANCE AND WITH EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WOULD EXPECT THIS CONTINUE. AS
SUCH...GUIDANCE WILL BE UNDERCUT A FEW DEGREES.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN LESSENING OVER THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE AS UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A MORE
NWRLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS HOWEVER...TEMPS ON
SAT WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OVER 100 IN MANY SPOTS. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO REMAIN
LOW...WITH MAYBE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SAT. SUN WILL
ALSO REMAIN WARM...BUT COULD SEE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
AREA AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO FALL SOME. KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR SUN
AS WELL...THOUGH THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. ALSO HAVE TEMPS COOLING WITH
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES...AND EVEN FROM NRLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST IF THE FRONT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY
THAT TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 69 87 67 89 / 50 20 10 10
CAMDEN AR 73 93 72 91 / 30 50 40 30
HARRISON AR 66 87 66 87 / 50 10 10 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 73 91 72 91 / 50 40 30 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 73 90 70 90 / 50 40 20 20
MONTICELLO AR 73 92 72 89 / 30 50 40 20
MOUNT IDA AR 73 91 71 91 / 50 40 30 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 65 87 66 87 / 50 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 70 86 67 89 / 50 20 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 73 91 72 90 / 40 50 30 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 71 88 69 89 / 50 30 20 20
SEARCY AR 71 88 68 89 / 50 30 20 20
STUTTGART AR 73 89 70 90 / 50 40 20 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
227 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AT
THIS TIME AS A WEAK IMPULSE IS MOVING THROUGH. DO NOT SEE THE NEED
TO CARRY ANY ADDITIONAL POPS WITH THIS FEATURE THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT AS THE HRRR MODEL WHICH REALLY HANDLED THIS DISTURBANCE
WELL SHOWS NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE...THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS THAT WAS ENJOYED OVER THE
WEEKEND IS JUST A MEMORY AS GULF MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO THE AREA
COURTESY OF SOUTHERLY WINDS.
MODELS REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF A LONG
WAVE TROUGH...CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT. IF ANYTHING
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT VERSUS OTHER SHORT TERM
MODELS AND WILL LEAN IN THAT MODELS DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART
OF MISSOURI. AS THE PARENT LOW AND TROUGH LIFT TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST...FRONT WILL SINK TOWARDS THE STATE. BEST GUESS ON THE
TIMING WOULD TAKE THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE MISSOURI BORDER LATE
TUESDAY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY BUT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE EXCESSIVE. FORECAST GETS A TOUCH MORE
MUDDLED AFTER THAT AS THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WHERE THIS BOUNDARY
ENDS UP STALLING. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE OVER
THE SOUTH AND THIS IS HOW THE FORECAST WILL TREND FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE JUST A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE BUT
STILL CLOSE TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MUCH OF THE NATURAL STATE WILL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE
JUST ABOVE NORMAL...AND RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
WHILE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WEST OF THE
REGION...WILL SEE SEE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO HAVE TEMPS FRI
THROUGH SUN IN THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS THE WRN COUNTIES GETTING CLOSE TO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ON
SAT. HOWEVER...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY CREST THE TRIP DIGIT
MARK BY THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN AND SWRN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED
CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT. BY LATE SUN AND INTO MON...THE UPPER FLOW
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE NW FLOW OVER THE STATE...WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS RESULTING
LOWER TEMPS TO AROUND OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 73 91 71 86 / 10 40 40 30
CAMDEN AR 71 95 73 93 / 0 10 20 40
HARRISON AR 72 90 69 85 / 10 30 50 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 72 94 73 91 / 10 10 40 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 72 94 73 89 / 10 10 40 40
MONTICELLO AR 71 95 73 92 / 0 10 30 40
MOUNT IDA AR 72 94 73 90 / 10 10 40 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 72 90 70 85 / 20 40 50 20
NEWPORT AR 73 92 72 86 / 10 40 50 30
PINE BLUFF AR 72 94 73 91 / 10 10 30 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 72 93 72 88 / 10 20 50 40
SEARCY AR 73 93 72 87 / 10 20 50 40
STUTTGART AR 73 94 73 88 / 10 20 40 40
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...62
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
415 PM PDT TUE JUL 8 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL KEEP
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
THROUGH THURSDAY AS SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 02Z WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 138 PM PDT TUE JUL 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION CONTINUED TO PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTH...NOW EXTENDING
INTO OREGON AND EVEN FAR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON STATE. THIS MOISTURE
HELPED INITIATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA
CREST...MAINLY ALONG THE TULARE/FRESNO COUNTY LINE JUST EAST OF
LODGEPOLE. THE HRRR AND NAM DID INDICATE THAT THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WOULD BE NORTH OF WHERE CONVECTION
INITIATED YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THE WITH THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY...MU CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 300 AND 400 J/KG...WE DID NOT
EXPECT TO SEE AS MANY LIGHTNING STRIKES AS YESTERDAY. THIS HAS NOT
BEEN THE CASE SO FAR...AND WE WILL BE WATCHING THE CREST CLOSELY AS
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MORE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE SJ VALLEY. SOUTH
OF VISALIA...TEMPERATURES WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...NORTH OF VISALIA TEMPERATURES
WERE RUNNING BETWEEN 5 TO 13 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ALREADY AT THE CENTURY
MARK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE ANOTHER 5 OR SO DEGREES
BEFORE SUNSET.
A VERY SUBTLE COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER FOUR CORNERS BEGINS TO FLATTEN. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...WITH EACH DAY COOLING BETWEEN 2
AND 3 DEGREES. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S...NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
JULY.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL MOVE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND EAST. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SIERRA CREST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY WILL ONLY SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE MAINLY OVER YOSEMITE. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
EAST...SHIFTING OUR MOISTURE SOURCE EAST...CUTTING OFF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO LOW WITH
THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AS THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE NOT DONE
WELL WITH THE CONVECTIVE SITUATION THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WEST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY ON MONDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 9 2014... UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-08 115:1905 84:1983 81:1896 51:1891
KFAT 07-09 113:1905 78:1936 81:2008 55:1983
KFAT 07-10 112:2008 81:1974 82:2008 54:1904
KBFL 07-08 114:1905 85:1983 79:1907 50:1899
KBFL 07-09 113:1905 83:1980 84:2008 52:1923
KBFL 07-10 113:1905 82:1936 85:2008 51:1914
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
850 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014
ONLY SOME WEAK SHOWERS STILL REMAIN OVER PARK COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND THIS ALSO SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. 00Z
DENVER SOUNDING STILL HAD SUBSTANTIAL CAP IN PLACE WITH STABLE
LAYER AROUND 700MB. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS ALSO CONFIRM THIS
STABILITY AT THIS LEVEL. WILL REMOVE OR REDUCE MOST OF THE POPS
THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR PARK COUNTY. WITH LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE
ASCENT OR BOUNDARY INTERACTION DOUBT THERE WILL BE NEW STORMS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014
A HOT UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WITH MONSOON MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD UP OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. SOME OF THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SUBTROPICAL AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE TOP OF THIS NEGATIVELY
TILTED RIDGE AND OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO
AS EVIDENT ON H20 VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. MEANWHILE MID-LEVEL AIR
OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE HAS DRIED SOME IN THE PAST
12 HOURS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT COOLING WAS EVIDENT ON RAP AND ACARS
SOUNDINGS OVER DENVER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH A WEAK
THERMAL/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO ORGANIZE TODAY...DUE IN PART TO
WARMING ALOFT AS NOTED ABOVE AND THE STABLE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
EAST OF THE MTNS. MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE WAS ALSO OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WHEREAS WEAKLY ASCENDING AIR WITH CONVECTION INHIBITION
NEARLY GONE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WAS HELPING TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS OVER
MTN...FOOTHILL AND HIGH PARK AREAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF I-70 AT THIS
HOUR. ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN URBAN CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE.
LATEST CAPE PLOTS INDICATE VALUES ALREADY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...SOUTH PARK AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. IT IS IN THIS AREA THAT THE CHANCE
OF STORMS IS GREATEST...IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THESE SAME
STORMS ARE ALSO MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HAIL...BRIEF INTENSE
RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE HAIL
STONES UPWARDS OF 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER. IF IT WERE A BIT
WARMER...EVEN LARGER THAN THIS. OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS A RELATIVELY
COOL AND STABLE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS PRETTY MUCH CAPPED ANY
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE/S ALWAYS A CHANCE THAT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVING OUT FROM A T-STORM NEAR THE FOOTHILLS COULD SPARK
A STORM OR TWO ON THE PLAINS...BUT THE HRRR...RUC...NAM AND THE
NAM NEST AND ARI SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY DO NOT INDICATE THIS
HAPPENING.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE A MARKED DECREASED IS
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY...FAR FROM WHAT HAPPENED LAST EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE SKIES CLEAR AS A DRIER AND WARMER DEEP
LAYER FLOW SETS UP.
ON WEDNESDAY...DAY APPEARS TO START OUT DRY WITH WESTERLY MTN TOP
FLOW AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOWER DOWN. THROUGH THE
DAY...SHOULD SEE MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASING AGAIN AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWS IN FROM UTAH. THIS TIME...THE WEST SLOPE AND HIGHER
AREAS UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS...SOME POSSIBLY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. EAST SLOPE AREAS MAY GET INTO THE ACT BUT
NOT UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS MOVE OFF
THE FOOTHILLS AND AS THEY DO PRODUCE OUTFLOW THAT IGNITES
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...STORM
COVERAGE ON THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY DOES NOT LOOK MUCH MORE THAN
ISOLATED. FINALLY TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY ARE PROGGED
TO BE AS MUCH AS 10-12 DEGS F WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014
SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE WHERE MODELS SHOW CAPES
AROUND 500 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 0.70 INCHES
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS TO AROUND TO 0.90 INCHES FAR EASTERN PLAINS...
WITH 0.60 INCHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SO...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. AIRMASS STABILIZES BY
MIDNIGHT... SO MOST CONVECTION SHOULD END AT THAT TIME. THERE MAY
BE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS LINGERING FAR EASTERN CORNER AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
COLORADO WITH WEAKER WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH CENTER OF THE
UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...MAIN FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TO BE ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. STILL
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN COLORADO FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 0.70 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM 0.80 ALONG THE FOOTHILLS TO OVER AN INCH FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. FAIRLY LIGHT
STEERING WINDS COULD CREATE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.
FAIRLY WARM AIRMASS WITH RIDGE OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. FOR FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE
STILL OVER COLORADO WITH FLOW ALOFT MORE WESTERLY. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS NOTED BY AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...WITH OVER AN INCH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. MODELS SHOWING A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WYOMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BORDER...WHICH MAY HELP INCREASE THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR THE
WYOMING BORDER. STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH STORM MOTION TO KEEP ANY FLOOD THREAT
MINIMAL. AIRMASS STILL FAIRLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW AND
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. ON SATURDAY: RIDGE RETROGRADES
SLIGHTLY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. MAIN BATCH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS UTAH...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS COLORADO. SHOULD SEE LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS A RESULT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. AIRMASS COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
GREAT BASIN SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST INTO COLORADO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN
COLORADO AS A RESULT....BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014
SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT APA/DEN AND WILL
TRANSITION MORE DRAINAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK CYCLONE IN PLACE
WITH WINDS AT BJC MORE LIGHT NORTHERLY. MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORMS LATER WED AFTERNOON BUT MORE HIGH BASED AS LOW LEVELS MIX
OUT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1114 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014
UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE PALMER DVD WITH STORMS FIRING
ON A MOISTURE BOUNDARY FROM JEFFERSON AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES EASTWARD
ALONG I-70 TO THE KANSAS BORDER. 18Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN EL PASO AND
KIOWA COUNTY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY..AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO...KEEPING WEAK N-NE
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AGAIN
TODAY...WITH A VERY PALTRY CROP OF AFTERNOON TSRA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS INDICATED BY BAND OF
MODERATE CUMULUS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...AND KPUX
RADAR SHOWS SOME WEAK CONVECTION TRYING TO DEVELOP FROM THE PALMER
DIVIDE EAST TO CHIN COUNTY AS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR PUSHES
SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THIS EVENING...WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO
LOW SCT POPS IN PLACE FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SOME VERY HIGH
BASED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. N-NE STEERING FLOW
WILL TEND TO KEEP VALLEYS/EASTERN SLOPES DRY...WHILE OVER THE
PLAINS...ONLY SOME VERY LOW POPS ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
KIOWA COUNTY...WHERE A COUPLE TSRA COULD FORM NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO END QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING...AND WILL END POPS ALL AREAS BY MIDNIGHT.
ON MONDAY...AIR MASS CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVER THE AREA AS
UPPER HIGH DRIFTS INTO UTAH. SURFACE BOUNDARY AGAIN LURKS NEAR THE
PALMER DIVIDE...THOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE IS STILL BACK TO THE NORTH
OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. EXPECT ANOTHER RATHER PALTRY CROP OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH VERY WEAK STEERING
WINDS KEEPING ACTIVITY TIED THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...THOUGH WILL AGAIN UNDERCUT TOO HOT MOS
GUIDANCE MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. EXPECT ONGOING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND OUT INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING WITH DECREASING ACTIVITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE INCREASING
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING ON AREA BURN SCARS. THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRICKY IN REGARDS TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL REBUILD
EASTWARD OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL PULL LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
SOUTHERLY AND THE NAM AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE DRYLINE
OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE A
FEELING THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE ON THE PLAINS WITH A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY AND SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO
OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DEPENDING ON WHEN
STORMS FIRE AND IF A DRYLINE DOES DEVELOP. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH FLASH FLOODING AGAIN A RISK ON AREA BURN
SCARS.
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION
BY THURSDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOW
MUCH MOVEMENT AND COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES
CAUGHT UNDER THE RIDGE. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS BRING A DECENT
WAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY
LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SQUIRRELLY WINDS AT PUB AND COS DUE TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
WILL RELAX AND BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE
GENERALLY HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT COS AND PUB AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT THEN PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z...WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND A FEW
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
241 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO KEEP
US UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE
RAINFREE...ANY THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME COULD BE STRONG.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...THE REMNANTS FROM THE MCS/MCV WERE STILL MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SO
FAR...SOME PRETTY STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
STORMS...BUT THESE WIND CORES REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES WITH THIS.
FOLLOWING THIS LINE BUT THIS SHOULDN`T BE THE ONE THAT SPAWNS STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS.
A SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST LOOKS TO SPARK ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON HOW UNSTABLE WE GET AT THAT
TIME WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WILL PAN OUT.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN SO IT WOULD NOT
TAKE PARTICULAR "TALL" STORMS TO TAP INTO THE 50 KTS WIND ABOUT
18,000 FEET OFF THE DECK.
FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST FINAGLED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS DUE TO THE
CURRENT WEATHER TRENDS...FOLLOWING THE LINE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND ANTICIPATION OF ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS A LITTLE IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SINCE
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED ACTIVITY WOULD MAKE IT DOWN THERE AS
WELL.
HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS
WILL RAMP UP THROUGH 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE LOWER TO MID
80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE UP MAINLY AFTER
FIRE UP AFTER 300 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE CHANCES FOR DAMAGING WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN THEIR
WIND OUTLOOK FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...PORTION OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY INTO GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. CHECK OUR FACEBOOK POST AND
TWEET WITH THE GRAPHICS.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ENHANCED WORDING
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER WEST-SOUTHWEST
WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW. LOW LEVEL JET...850 MB...WILL
INCREASE TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK 60
TO 75 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. AT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWING STRUCTURES TO DEVELOP
WITH SUPERCELLS EVEN POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES.
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 60S ACROSS AREA. WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT AFTER AN ACTIVE PERIOD
THIS EVENING. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON TUESDAY. PWATS ARE
ONCE AGAIN VERY HIGH IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. FA IS IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75 KT JET AT H3 AND MLMUCAPES RCH
1000-1500 J/KG. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S TO
PERHAPS LOWER 90S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY AS FA REMAINS IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WHICH IS NOW UP TO 100 KTS.
IN ADDITION BULK SHEAR 0-6 KM REACHES 50 TO 60 KTS. LAPSE RATES
H8-H7 APPROACH 6 TO 6.5 C/KM AND MLMUCAPES REACH 1500-2500 J/KG
MAINLY ACROSS SERN HALF OF FA. PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH
RANGE AT LEAST INTO ERLY AFTERNOON. STRENGTH OF H5 TROF IS SUCH THAT
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH BOWING SEGMENTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LITTLE
IF ANY CONVECTION LEFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY FOR LATER NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A BREAK FROM
THE ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR FOR THU NT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SAT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF A COOL POOL ALOFT...AND DYNAMICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH
PASSAGE...A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY
FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THU NT INTO AT LEAST EARLY SAT.
FROM LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL CANADA...AND SLOWLY
TRACKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WELL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SOME MODELS SUGGEST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES ACROSS THE REGION AS EARLY AS SAT OR SAT
NT...PARTICULARLY THE 00Z/07 GFS AND ECMWF. THE 00Z/07 GEFS...ON THE
OTHER HAND...DO NOT REFLECT THIS FEATURE AND POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS...SUGGESTING THAT THE 00Z/07 DETERMINISTIC GFS MAY BE AN
OUTLIER. AT THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SAT AFTN
AND NIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO CHC BY SUNDAY...FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...IF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF
PROVE CORRECT...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM...THEY SHOULD INITIALLY BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THEN...AS LOW LEVEL
WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCUR SAT-SUN...TEMPS SHOULD TREND TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...ESPECIALLY SINCE NIGHTTIME MIN
TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. SO...EXPECT DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 75-80 RANGE IN VALLEYS FOR THU AND FRI...WITH 60S AND LOWER
70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD THEN WARM INTO THE
LOWER/MID 80S FOR VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR
SAT-SUN...ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND
LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THU NT/FRI AM...WITH PERHAPS
SOME 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MIN
TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES FOR FRI NT/SAT AM...WITH MAINLY LOWER
60S IN VALLEYS...AND 50S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN...EVEN WARMER FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...IT SHOULD
BECOME MORE HUMID AS WELL BY SAT NT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION HAS BECOME MOIST AND UNSTABLE. A ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL FIRE UP AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.
LOOKING THROUGH MODELS HAVE USED THE HRRR-3KM FOR GUIDANCE FOR
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR KALB
(22Z-00Z) AND KPSF (23Z-01Z). WHERE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE. WHILE
AT KGFL AND KPOU HAVE USED VCSH TO ADDRESS CONVECTION.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY LATE EVENING WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN. SOME AREAS OF FOG
AND/OR STRATUS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE
WHICH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. HAVE MVFR VIS IN TAFS WITH
SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS. AFTER SUNRISE MIXING BEGINS AND ANY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AND CLOUDS WOULD LIFT. CONVECTION ON TUESDAY SHOULD NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 18Z/TUESDAY END OF TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY LOOKING AT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
INTO THE 20S. WINDS WILL WEAKEN/DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHRA...TSRA.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TODAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT
TODAY...INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 45 TO
60 PERCENT ON TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 MPH TONIGHT...AND SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TODAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
THROUGH MID WEEK...SO ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME
AREA...THEN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1230 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO KEEP
US UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE
RAINFREE...ANY THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME COULD BE STRONG.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...THE REMNANTS FROM THE MCS/MCV WERE STILL MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SO
FAR...SOME PRETTY STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
STORMS...BUT THESE WIND CORES REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES WITH THIS.
FOLLOWING THIS LINE BUT THIS SHOULDN`T BE THE ONE THAT SPAWNS STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS.
A SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST LOOKS TO SPARK ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON HOW UNSTABLE WE GET AT THAT
TIME WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WILL PAN OUT.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN SO IT WOULD NOT
TAKE PARTICULAR "TALL" STORMS TO TAP INTO THE 50 KTS WIND ABOUT
18,000 FEET OFF THE DECK.
FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST FINAGLED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS DUE TO THE
CURRENT WEATHER TRENDS...FOLLOWING THE LINE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND ANTICIPATION OF ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS A LITTLE IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SINCE
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED ACTIVITY WOULD MAKE IT DOWN THERE AS
WELL.
HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS
WILL RAMP UP THROUGH 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE LOWER TO MID
80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE UP MAINLY AFTER
FIRE UP AFTER 300 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE CHANCES FOR DAMAGING WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN THEIR
WIND OUTLOOK FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...PORTION OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY INTO GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. CHECK OUR FACEBOOK POST AND
TWEET WITH THE GRAPHICS.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ENHANCED WORDING
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER WEST-SOUTHWEST
WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW. LOW LEVEL JET...850 MB...WILL
INCREASE TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK 60
TO 75 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. AT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWING STRUCTURES TO DEVELOP
WITH SUPERCELLS EVEN POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES.
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 60S ACROSS AREA. WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT AFTER AN ACTIVE PERIOD
THIS EVENING. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON TUESDAY. PWATS ARE
ONCE AGAIN VERY HIGH IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. FA IS IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75 KT JET AT H3 AND MLMUCAPES RCH
1000-1500 J/KG. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S TO
PERHAPS LOWER 90S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY AS FA REMAINS IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WHICH IS NOW UP TO 100 KTS.
IN ADDITION BULK SHEAR 0-6 KM REACHES 50 TO 60 KTS. LAPSE RATES
H8-H7 APPROACH 6 TO 6.5 C/KM AND MLMUCAPES REACH 1500-2500 J/KG
MAINLY ACROSS SERN HALF OF FA. PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH
RANGE AT LEAST INTO ERLY AFTERNOON. STRENGTH OF H5 TROF IS SUCH THAT
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH BOWING SEGMENTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LITTLE
IF ANY CONVECTION LEFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY FOR LATER NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A BREAK FROM
THE ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR FOR THU NT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SAT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF A COOL POOL ALOFT...AND DYNAMICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH
PASSAGE...A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY
FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THU NT INTO AT LEAST EARLY SAT.
FROM LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL CANADA...AND SLOWLY
TRACKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WELL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SOME MODELS SUGGEST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES ACROSS THE REGION AS EARLY AS SAT OR SAT
NT...PARTICULARLY THE 00Z/07 GFS AND ECMWF. THE 00Z/07 GEFS...ON THE
OTHER HAND...DO NOT REFLECT THIS FEATURE AND POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS...SUGGESTING THAT THE 00Z/07 DETERMINISTIC GFS MAY BE AN
OUTLIER. AT THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SAT AFTN
AND NIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO CHC BY SUNDAY...FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...IF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF
PROVE CORRECT...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM...THEY SHOULD INITIALLY BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THEN...AS LOW LEVEL
WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCUR SAT-SUN...TEMPS SHOULD TREND TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...ESPECIALLY SINCE NIGHTTIME MIN
TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. SO...EXPECT DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 75-80 RANGE IN VALLEYS FOR THU AND FRI...WITH 60S AND LOWER
70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD THEN WARM INTO THE
LOWER/MID 80S FOR VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR
SAT-SUN...ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND
LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THU NT/FRI AM...WITH PERHAPS
SOME 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MIN
TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES FOR FRI NT/SAT AM...WITH MAINLY LOWER
60S IN VALLEYS...AND 50S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN...EVEN WARMER FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...IT SHOULD
BECOME MORE HUMID AS WELL BY SAT NT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER IN THE
DAY INTO THIS EVENING. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ENTERING WESTERN NYS
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING E/NE THROUGH THIS MORNING. SHOULD THESE HOLD
TOGETHER...THEY MAY IMPACT KGFL BY 14Z-16Z...AND PERHAPS KPSF
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF...BEGINNING AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND LINGERING UNTIL
AROUND 01Z-03Z/TUE. AT KPOU...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE A LITTLE LESS...AND THE THREAT OCCURRING A BIT
LATER...GENERALLY 23Z-04Z.
SOME AREAS OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP AFTER
02Z-04Z/TUE IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS IN TAFS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON PRIOR RAINFALL...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON...TO 10-15 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB DUE TO CHANNELING OF WIND UP THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY AND ALSO SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM THE ADJACENT
HELDERBERGS/CATSKILLS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 8 KT MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHRA...TSRA.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TODAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT
TODAY...INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 45 TO
60 PERCENT ON TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 MPH TONIGHT...AND SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TODAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
THROUGH MID WEEK...SO ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME
AREA...THEN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
121 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCT TSRA NEAR ALL
TERMINALS BUT TRENDING INLAND FROM THE EAST COAST BY 21Z. SIMILAR
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY SO INTRODUCED VCTS AFT 12Z TO
INDICATE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT LATE NIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WILL BE QUITE
VARIABLE WITH A LIGHT EAST FLOW AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DISRUPTING
THAT DOMINANT PATTERN.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014/
UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING INTO THE COASTAL AND
METRO AREAS THIS MORNING. THE 12Z SOUNDING WAS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...WEAK LAPSE RATES...AND
AROUND 3300 J/KG CAPE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WAS SEEN IN THE
BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP
POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AND METRO AREAS THIS MORNING AND FOR THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IN SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE SITTING
TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE
MAIN QUESTION IS THE STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAY.
LOOKING AT THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS, THERE IS NOTHING THAT LOOKS
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE TODAY. CAPE IS GENERALLY LESS THAT 1000
JOULES, DCAPE IS RIGHT AROUND 500. THE NCAPE IS GENERALLY .1 OR
LESS, WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR EXCEPTIONS. 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES
ARE AROUND 5.5C/KM. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS JUST ABOVE 14000 FT. BUT
THE 500MB TEMPS ARE ABOUT -7.4C. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CAP. SO,
ALL IN ALL, LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL SEE PRETTY MUCH RUN OF THE MILL
THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE, HERE IS SOUTH FLORIDA, THERE SEEMS TO
ALWAYS BE A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS, SO WILL NOT RULE THEM
OUT. BUT THEY LOOK TO BE THE EXCEPTION, NOT THE RULE TODAY. OF
COURSE, THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING MAY TELL A DIFFERENT STORY. BUT FOR
NOW, WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST, MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. LOOKING AT THE
MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HRRR, IT SEEMS TO CONFIRM THE THOUGHT OF
RUN OF THE MILL TYPE STORMS. CURRENTLY, IT IS SHOWING MAX
DOWNDRAFT OF ONLY 2.5 M/S. ALSO, IT IS SHOWING THE MAIN THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE WESTERN LAKE REGION. IT DOES SHOW
MORE CAPE THAN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER, THAT JUST REINFORCES
THE THOUGHT OF THUNDERSTORMS BEING ABLE TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE THUNDERSTORM STRENGTHS MAY CHANGE DAY TO DAY, THE
WEATHER PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
NEXT WEEK, SO, EXPECT MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. SOME OF THEM MAY BECOME STRONG AT TIMES. TEMPERATURE
WISE, THAT ALSO LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY TYPICAL AS WELL, WITH HIGHS
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND 90 AND UP TO THE MID 90S FOR THE
INTERIOR.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE EAST COAST SITES
WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS
PUSHING INTO COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS MORNING FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. KEPT PRECIP MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR NOW BUT WILL
AMEND AS NECESSARY. EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z.
MARINE...
EXPECT TYPICAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FOR THE SURROUNDING WATERS.
NO SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS, BUT MAY ALSO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$C
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1033 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2014
.Near Term [Rest of Today]...
Overall, very little change was made to the existing forecast
for today. It still looks like a warm day with highs just above
normal and rather sparse convective coverage again. The 12Z
sounding from Tallahassee had precipitable water observed at
1.04", which is just 57% of normal. Despite a slight increase in
deep layer moisture today, PWATs should remain below normal.
Objective MSAS and RAP analysis places a NE-SW oriented surface
trough over the northwest portions of our area, and this is
supported by a shift in the surface wind direction in that area.
Convection-allowing models focus afternoon development along that
trough, as well as along the Panhandle sea breeze boundary. This
is where we maintained 20% PoPs, with a dry forecast in most other
locations. Highs should mostly be in the 92-94 degree range.
&&
.Prev Discussion [248 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
With a weak Sfc ridge that is poised to become centered just to the
south of our coastal waters, conditions for a more convectively
active sea breeze circulation will begin to develop. However,
despite the normally active Type 4 and Type 5 sea breeze days
(characterized by light to moderate W-SW winds between 1000 and 700
mb for Type 4, and strong W-SW flow in this layer for Type 5), the
deep layer moisture that is needed to support the normally higher
PoPs and QPF for these regimes will still be lacking. Therefore, to
determine PoPs through the period, went with a 50/50 blend of sea
breeze climo PoPs with our locally produced confidence grids. This
blend gives us a maximum of 20-30% rain chances for Tuesday, and
30-40% for Wednesday. Also, with the drier air remaining in place,
afternoon high temperatures are expected to continue to be quite
hot, generally towards the higher end of the middle 90s away from
the coast.
.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Sunday]...
Beginning Thursday, models are in fairly good agreement that a
developing longwave trough axis from the Appalachians to the
Florida Panhandle will be accompanied by a cold front reaching the
Southeast. This should increase rain chances late this week and
into the weekend. Given that, PoPs are slightly above normal
values - closer to 50-60% - and high temperatures are slightly
cooler than what we`ve seen recently by a degree or two.
.Aviation...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF.
.Marine...
With weak surface high pressure remaining in control just to the
south of the coastal waters through the period, generally light
onshore winds and low seas are expected for the next several days.
However, there will be some brief enhancements over the nearshore
waters during the late afternoon and evening hours due to the sea
breeze circulation.
.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not anticipated over the next
several days.
.Hydrology...
With only a modest moistening trend expected across the CWA, no
rises of any significance are expected on our area rivers and
streams through the upcoming week.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 93 71 97 73 96 / 10 10 30 10 40
Panama City 89 77 90 77 90 / 20 10 20 10 30
Dothan 92 70 96 72 96 / 20 10 20 20 40
Albany 93 70 97 72 96 / 20 10 20 20 30
Valdosta 96 69 97 70 96 / 10 10 30 20 40
Cross City 91 69 94 71 94 / 30 10 30 10 40
Apalachicola 88 76 88 77 89 / 10 10 20 20 30
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GOULD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
931 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING INTO THE COASTAL AND
METRO AREAS THIS MORNING. THE 12Z SOUNDING WAS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...WEAK LAPSE RATES...AND
AROUND 3300 J/KG CAPE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WAS SEEN IN THE
BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP
POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AND METRO AREAS THIS MORNING AND FOR THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IN SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE SITTING
TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE
MAIN QUESTION IS THE STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAY.
LOOKING AT THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS, THERE IS NOTHING THAT LOOKS
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE TODAY. CAPE IS GENERALLY LESS THAT 1000
JOULES, DCAPE IS RIGHT AROUND 500. THE NCAPE IS GENERALLY .1 OR
LESS, WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR EXCEPTIONS. 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES
ARE AROUND 5.5C/KM. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS JUST ABOVE 14000 FT. BUT
THE 500MB TEMPS ARE ABOUT -7.4C. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CAP. SO,
ALL IN ALL, LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL SEE PRETTY MUCH RUN OF THE MILL
THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE, HERE IS SOUTH FLORIDA, THERE SEEMS TO
ALWAYS BE A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS, SO WILL NOT RULE THEM
OUT. BUT THEY LOOK TO BE THE EXCEPTION, NOT THE RULE TODAY. OF
COURSE, THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING MAY TELL A DIFFERENT STORY. BUT FOR
NOW, WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST, MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. LOOKING AT THE
MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HRRR, IT SEEMS TO CONFIRM THE THOUGHT OF
RUN OF THE MILL TYPE STORMS. CURRENTLY, IT IS SHOWING MAX
DOWNDRAFT OF ONLY 2.5 M/S. ALSO, IT IS SHOWING THE MAIN THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE WESTERN LAKE REGION. IT DOES SHOW
MORE CAPE THAN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER, THAT JUST REINFORCES
THE THOUGHT OF THUNDERSTORMS BEING ABLE TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE THUNDERSTORM STRENGTHS MAY CHANGE DAY TO DAY, THE
WEATHER PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
NEXT WEEK, SO, EXPECT MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. SOME OF THEM MAY BECOME STRONG AT TIMES. TEMPERATURE
WISE, THAT ALSO LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY TYPICAL AS WELL, WITH HIGHS
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND 90 AND UP TO THE MID 90S FOR THE
INTERIOR.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE EAST COAST SITES
WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS
PUSHING INTO COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS MORNING FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. KEPT PRECIP MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR NOW BUT WILL
AMEND AS NECESSARY. EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z.
MARINE...
EXPECT TYPICAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FOR THE SURROUNDING WATERS.
NO SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS, BUT MAY ALSO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 77 89 77 / 50 30 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 90 80 / 30 30 50 30
MIAMI 89 78 90 79 / 30 30 50 20
NAPLES 90 75 90 75 / 50 20 50 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IN SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE SITTING
TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE
MAIN QUESTION IS THE STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAY.
LOOKING AT THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS, THERE IS NOTHING THAT LOOKS
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE TODAY. CAPE IS GENERALLY LESS THAT 1000
JOULES, DCAPE IS RIGHT AROUND 500. THE NCAPE IS GENERALLY .1 OR
LESS, WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR EXCEPTIONS. 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES
ARE AROUND 5.5C/KM. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS JUST ABOVE 14000 FT. BUT
THE 500MB TEMPS ARE ABOUT -7.4C. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CAP. SO,
ALL IN ALL, LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL SEE PRETTY MUCH RUN OF THE MILL
THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE, HERE IS SOUTH FLORIDA, THERE SEEMS TO
ALWAYS BE A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS, SO WILL NOT RULE THEM
OUT. BUT THEY LOOK TO BE THE EXCEPTION, NOT THE RULE TODAY. OF
COURSE, THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING MAY TELL A DIFFERENT STORY. BUT FOR
NOW, WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST, MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. LOOKING AT THE
MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HRRR, IT SEEMS TO CONFIRM THE THOUGHT OF
RUN OF THE MILL TYPE STORMS. CURRENTLY, IT IS SHOWING MAX
DOWNDRAFT OF ONLY 2.5 M/S. ALSO, IT IS SHOWING THE MAIN THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE WESTERN LAKE REGION. IT DOES SHOW
MORE CAPE THAN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER, THAT JUST REINFORCES
THE THOUGHT OF THUNDERSTORMS BEING ABLE TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE THUNDERSTORM STRENGTHS MAY CHANGE DAY TO DAY, THE
WEATHER PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
NEXT WEEK, SO, EXPECT MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. SOME OF THEM MAY BECOME STRONG AT TIMES. TEMPERATURE
WISE, THAT ALSO LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY TYPICAL AS WELL, WITH HIGHS
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND 90 AND UP TO THE MID 90S FOR THE
INTERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE EAST COAST SITES
WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS
PUSHING INTO COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS MORNING FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. KEPT PRECIP MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR NOW BUT WILL
AMEND AS NECESSARY. EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT TYPICAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FOR THE SURROUNDING WATERS.
NO SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS, BUT MAY ALSO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 77 89 77 / 30 30 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 90 80 / 20 30 50 30
MIAMI 89 78 90 79 / 30 30 50 20
NAPLES 90 75 90 75 / 40 20 50 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
150 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE EAST COAST SITES
WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS
PUSHING INTO COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS MORNING FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. KEPT PRECIP MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR NOW BUT WILL
AMEND AS NECESSARY. EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
UPDATE...
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD BEEN OCCURRING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
OVER GULF WATERS AND THE FAR ATLANTIC WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE OFF AND ON
THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THESE WATERS FOR TONIGHT.
THERE ARE ALSO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MAINLAND OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST.
THEREFORE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE GOING DRY FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE IS ALSO SHOWING SOME SAHARAN DUST OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST
MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SAHARAN DUST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY. THIS DUST WILL HELP TO REDUCE THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...
THE POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A LITTLE BIT FOR MONDAY.
THE OTHER THING IS THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
MONDAY COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...DUE TO THE
DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE
EFFECTS OF THE SAHARAN DUST.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOTED
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER...IT WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER AND NO CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
AFTER AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WITH DEEP MOISTURE AROUND
OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND SOME COULD MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. DRIER
AIR AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MAY MOVE INTO
THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
SO SLIGHTLY LESS CONVECTION OVERALL IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR. THE DRIER AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM
THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING
BACK TO AROUND 2 INCHES. SO A TYPICAL WET SEASON PATTERN WILL
ENSUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
SAHARAN DUST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EAST. THIS DRIER AIR AND DUST MAY LIMIT CONVECTION AND
CAUSE HAZY SKIES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST BEFORE
THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE DRIER AIR MAY NOT MAKE IT TO THE WEST
UNTIL CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN. THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN COULD
LEAD TO STRONGER DOWNBURSTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUTSIDE
OF ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT IMPACT THE LOCAL WATERS...BOATING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE NEARLY IDEAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 78 90 77 / 30 30 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 90 79 / 20 30 60 20
MIAMI 90 79 90 79 / 20 30 60 20
NAPLES 90 75 91 76 / 40 10 50 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
654 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS INLAND THROUGH MID
WEEK. A WEAK FRONT COULD APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY..BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN POSITIONED BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WELL OFFSHORE AND LEE-SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT
REGION. WATER VAPOR AND RAP VORTICITY DATA SHOW A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND DURING PEAK
HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SURPRISINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE HINTS THAT DEWPOINTS WILL MIX
OUT...BUT NONE OF THE MODELS NOR THEIR ASSOCIATED MODEL OUTPUT
STATISTICS ARE SHOWING ANY MEANINGFUL CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RNFL.
GIVEN ITS EARLY SUMMER AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION LOOKS DECENT WITHIN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WE
ARE HESITANT TO CARRY A POP-FREE FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CONFINED ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. MENTIONABLE POPS WILL GENERALLY
BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH
GRIDDED VALUES ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INCLUDING
ALLENDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA REMAINING BELOW
MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S
INLAND WITH LOWER 90S-UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT TONIGHT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE INLAND LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS WELL. DESPITE THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO HELP KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FAIRLY WELL MIXED. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM/HUMID
NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S WELL
INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AND IN DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.
TUESDAY...THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF
PROMINENT ATLANTIC RIDGING...WHILE AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH
GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD BY THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND A VERY NOTABLE
CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH RAIN CHANCES AS A RESULT OF THE
DRY ENVIRONMENT AND LACK OF FORCING...CONFINING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO JUST A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THIS SMALL MENTION OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY ON TUESDAY. IF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD THIS DRIER FORECAST...ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION COULD
EVENTUALLY BE REMOVED ALL TOGETHER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER STRONG RIDGING AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...REACHING THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.
WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BY THE MID
WEEK...WITH THE INLAND SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN WILL BE
TRANSITIONING...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ONCE
AGAIN LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PREFER TO MENTION JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWLY IMPROVING MOISTURE
PROFILE. THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SENDING THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOWARD THE COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SUGGESTING THAT ISOLATED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION COULD OCCUR
AS A RESULT. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS DRIER FOR THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD...WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 90S.
THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME NOTABLY MORE ACTIVE...AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST SUPPORTS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE LINGERING INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH. DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY...RAISING CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL ADVERTISE RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG AND INLAND OF THE
SEABREEZE DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD. WILL STILL MAINTAIN 30 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCES OVERNIGHT GIVEN SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY
AS A RESULT OF LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT...INCREASING CLOUDS...AND
BETTER RAIN COVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE COASTLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...REINFORCED BY
STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG
THE EAST COAST. HAVE MAINTAINED RELATIVELY HIGH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACCORDINGLY...PEAKING AT NEAR 50 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONLY DOWN TO THE 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY...SUPPRESSED
SLIGHTLY BY THICK CLOUDS AND DECENT RAIN COVERAGE.
THE PATTERN WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EVIDENCE THAT
DEEP LAYER RIDGING COULD REGAIN SOME CONTROL. SOME FORM OF AN
INLAND SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...SUGGESTING THAT SOLID RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL JUSTIFIED
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
WARMER BY A DEGREE OR TWO...RANGING FROM 91 TO 94 DEGREES AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHORT-LIVED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASES WITHIN A DEVELOPING BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FT.
TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL SURGING APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH
INLAND. WINDS LOOK TO PEAK 15-20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS...4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. ATTM IT DOES APPEAR AS
THOUGH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...MAINTAINING
GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. NOCTURNAL SURGES ARE POSSIBLE
EACH NIGHT DUE TO A TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN AN INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WINDS COULD
INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT...MAINLY WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST
DURING THESE SURGES. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4
FT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MORE SOLID SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/WMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
325 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS INLAND
THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK FRONT COULD APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY..BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN POSITIONED BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WELL OFFSHORE AND LEE-SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT
REGION. WATER VAPOR AND RAP VORTICITY DATA SHOW A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND DURING PEAK
HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SURPRISINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE HINTS THAT DEWPOINTS WILL MIX
OUT...BUT NONE OF THE MODELS NOR THEIR ASSOCIATED MODEL OUTPUT
STATISTICS ARE SHOWING ANY MEANINGFUL CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RNFL.
GIVEN ITS EARLY SUMMER AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION LOOKS DECENT WITHIN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WE
ARE HESITANT TO CARRY A POP-FREE FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CONFINED ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. MENTIONABLE POPS WILL GENERALLY
BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH
GRIDDED VALUES ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INCLUDING
ALLENDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA REMAINING BELOW
MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S
INLAND WITH LOWER 90S-UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT TONIGHT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE INLAND LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS WELL. DESPITE THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO HELP KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FAIRLY WELL MIXED. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM/HUMID
NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S WELL
INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AND IN DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.
TUESDAY...THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF
PROMINENT ATLANTIC RIDGING...WHILE AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH
GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD BY THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND A VERY NOTABLE
CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH RAIN CHANCES AS A RESULT OF THE
DRY ENVIRONMENT AND LACK OF FORCING...CONFINING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO JUST A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THIS SMALL MENTION OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY ON TUESDAY. IF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD THIS DRIER FORECAST...ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION COULD
EVENTUALLY BE REMOVED ALL TOGETHER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER STRONG RIDGING AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...REACHING THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.
WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BY THE MID
WEEK...WITH THE INLAND SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN WILL BE
TRANSITIONING...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ONCE
AGAIN LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PREFER TO MENTION JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWLY IMPROVING MOISTURE
PROFILE. THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SENDING THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOWARD THE COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SUGGESTING THAT ISOLATED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION COULD OCCUR
AS A RESULT. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS DRIER FOR THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD...WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 90S.
THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME NOTABLY MORE ACTIVE...AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST SUPPORTS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE LINGERING INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH. DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY...RAISING CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL ADVERTISE RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG AND INLAND OF THE
SEABREEZE DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD. WILL STILL MAINTAIN 30 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCES OVERNIGHT GIVEN SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY
AS A RESULT OF LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT...INCREASING CLOUDS...AND
BETTER RAIN COVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE COASTLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...REINFORCED BY
STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG
THE EAST COAST. HAVE MAINTAINED RELATIVELY HIGH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACCORDINGLY...PEAKING AT NEAR 50 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONLY DOWN TO THE 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY...SUPPRESSED
SLIGHTLY BY THICK CLOUDS AND DECENT RAIN COVERAGE.
THE PATTERN WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EVIDENCE THAT
DEEP LAYER RIDGING COULD REGAIN SOME CONTROL. SOME FORM OF AN
INLAND SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...SUGGESTING THAT SOLID RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL JUSTIFIED
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
WARMER BY A DEGREE OR TWO...RANGING FROM 91 TO 94 DEGREES AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT KCHS/KSAV...BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION ATTM.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHORT-LIVED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASES WITHIN A DEVELOPING BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FT.
TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL SURGING APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH
INLAND. WINDS LOOK TO PEAK 15-20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS...4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. ATTM IT DOES APPEAR AS
THOUGH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...MAINTAINING
GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. NOCTURNAL SURGES ARE POSSIBLE
EACH NIGHT DUE TO A TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN AN INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WINDS COULD
INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT...MAINLY WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST
DURING THESE SURGES. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4
FT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MORE SOLID SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/WMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
111 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL FOCUS ON THE NEXT ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND FAR NORTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS. A LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION...WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION FOR ANY POTENTIAL SIGNALS OF STRONG WINDS...AS IT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO HANDEL THIS WIND THREAT WITH SPS`S UNLESS THE STORMS SHOW SIGNS
OF STRONGER WINDS. OTHERWISE...THIS LINE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT OUT
OF MY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TO BEGIN TO STALL OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THIS THREAT WILL MAINLY REMAIN SOUTH OF MY AREA. HOWEVER...I
DID LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE RATHER WARM
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO TOP OUT WELL INTO THE
80S. IT APPEARS THE SYNOPTIC WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT
ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM ALONG THE
SHORES OF COOK COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...AND THIS WOULD
LEAD TO SOME COOLER CONDITIONS THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY SHORT
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AMPLIFICATION...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO
AROUND 40 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. IT
APPEARS THE NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET AND MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
WILL SET UP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN IOWA AND INTO
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE EAST TO WEST
ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ALSO HENCE BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND SEVERE STORMS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION...NEAR THE TRACK OF
THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW.
IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THE EVOLVING COLD FRONT MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS IT
SHIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY
LOCALLY. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW ROBUST
THE CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA...GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF MOST
OF THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING ROBED FROM THE CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH...AND HENCE WEAKER MUCAPE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA. NEVERTHELESS...I WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE LOW END LIKELY POPS GIVEN THE RATHER STRONG SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
DIG ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...BUT NOT
ZERO...MAINLY DUE TO THE EARLY MORNING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LACK OF BETTER INSTABILITY.
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF MY AREA...BUT SHOULD
END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN SPITE OF
THIS...HOWEVER...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS DISTURBED. THIS ACTIVITY
WOULD LIKELY BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND
DIURNAL IN NATURE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR STORMS FOR
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER AND MUCH
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS AS THE FLOW BECOMES DIRECTED OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER TUESDAY WILL
NOT BE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST AT MDW FROM 1830-19Z AND
CHANCE LAKE BREEZE MAKES IT TO ORD.
* CHANCE OF TSRA LATE TONIGHT.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
MAINLY QUIET VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SPOTTY SHRA ARE POSSIBLE NEAR GYY IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE. THE LAKE BREEZE HAS MADE GOOD
PROGRESS TOWARD MDW AND MOVED TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT TO 1830Z.
HAVE SOME CONCERN BASED ON WNW WINDS CLOSE TO 10KT THAT BOUNDARY
COULD SLOW A BIT WHEN IT GETS CLOSE TO MDW...AND DELAY WIND SHIFT
SOME. FOR ORD...THE OPPOSING WNW FLOW HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF PUSHING
THE LAKE BREEZE BACK EAST OVER NORTHEAST COOK COUNTY. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE LAKE
BREEZE SHIFT OUT OF TAF AT ORD.
THERE ARE MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
THAT COULD SPUR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT WELL OF TO THE NORTHWEST AND
MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY MORE INTENSE TSRA
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS FROM NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL. MAINTENANCE OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IS MORE UNCERTAIN FARTHER
NORTH...BUT HAVE INDICATED A VCTS MENTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SCT SHRA/TSRA COULD BE IN THE TERMINAL AREAS A BIT
EARLIER THAN INDICATED IN TAF...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN
DIRECT IMPACTS. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
EAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BY MID-LATE AM...WITH
GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KT.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH IN LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT AT MDW...MEDIUM IN TIMING.
MEDIUM-HIGH THAT LAKE BREEZE WILL NOT MAKE IT TO ORD.
* LOW IN DIRECT TSRA IMPACTS AT TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM IN
MOST LIKELY TIMING OF TSRA BEING IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHC TSRA.
SUNDAY...SCHC TSRA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
203 AM CDT
WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GO AS SCHEDULED THIS MORNING AS
WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEST
WINDS 10-15 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS TURN SW OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...AND THEN VARIABLE/ONSHORE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS AFTN. ANOTHER LOW MOVES OVER THE LAKE
TUESDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE...WHILE THE NORTHERN THIRD WILL SEE EAST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THE LOW QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AND
MERGES WITH THE FIRST LOW OVER QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME W TO NW ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN MOVES IN MID WEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITH PERIODS OF
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND WINDS BECOME SOUTH 10-20 KT.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1254 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1042 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
15z/10am surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from
Chicago to near Quincy. Ahead of the boundary, a band of low
clouds blankets much of central Illinois. Latest radar imagery is
beginning to show a few showers developing within this band,
primarily along and south of a Danville...to Decatur...to
Jacksonville line. Both the 12z NAM and HRRR show showers and
thunderstorms becoming more widespread later this afternoon across
the far SE KILX CWA. Have updated the forecast to limit POPs to
the southern half of the CWA only, with the highest chances
along/south of I-70.
40-45kt LLJ is progged to develop across eastern Kansas into
northern Missouri tonight, triggering a cluster of thunderstorms
west of the Mississippi River. This convection is expected to
track eastward into central Illinois overnight, potentially
producing strong winds and heavy rainfall. The exact evolution and
track of the storms still remains in doubt: however, the timing
looks to be firmly after midnight. As such, have updated POPs
tonight to go with dry conditions during the evening except across
the far SE where a few thunderstorms may linger. Then have gone
with likely POPs across the board after midnight as the storm
complex arrives from the west. Zone update has already been
issued.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1254 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
Scattered thunderstorms will develop in advance of a weak cold
front this afternoon: however, based on latest satellite/radar
imagery, it appears the convection will remain south of the
central Illinois terminals. Next significant chance for convection
will hold off until late tonight when a complex of thunderstorms
tracks E/SE out of Missouri/Iowa. Exact evolution and track of
complex remains in question: however, latest guidance suggests it
may remain mostly south of the I-74 corridor. As a result, have
maintained only VCTS at the northern TAF sites overnight. Further
southwest closer to expected track of the storms, have included
TEMPO groups for thunder at both KSPI and KDEC between 07z and
11z. Once storms push off to the east early Tuesday morning, a
return to mostly sunny conditions with a NW wind of around 10 mph
is expected.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night
Much of central and southeast IL remains in a slight risk of
severe storms later today and tonight per SPC day1 outlook. Just
far ne CWA around Marshall county is outside this risk area. A
weakening cold front over se parts of WI/IA and nw MO early this
morning will push se into central IL during today. Most of
convection has been focused from ne IL ne into lower MI early this
morning though a few cells have recently appeared along an outflow
boundary from northern McLean county westward to around Macomb to
Burlington, IA. Daytime heating of very unstable airmass along
with some wind shear to bring increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon especially late over central
and southern areas. Then MCS to develop over central plains this
evening and spread east into central/southern IL overnight into
Tue morning and this too will have risk of severe storms and heavy
rains especially sw areas. Greatest threat of damaging winds and
tornadoes is over northern MO, southern IA and eastern Nebraska.
Very warm and humid today with highs in the upper 80s to near 90F.
Lows tonight in upper 60s north and lower 70s south.
MCS to diminish from west to east during Tue morning while
stronger cold front pushes into southeast IL Tue afternoon where
best chances of convection will be. SPC keeps slight risk of
severe storms south of our CWA in southern IL Tue. Have lingered a
chance of showers and thunderstorms in southeast IL Tue evening
mainly until sunset then dry weather returns rest of Tue night and
Wed as weak high pressure settles into the Midwest. Highs in the
lower 80s Tue central IL and mid 80s southeast IL and still humid.
Then less humid Wed with highs mostly in the lower 80s.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday
Extended models continue to show IL in a wnw upper level flow late
this week with upper level trof over the Ohio river valley and
upper level ridging in the west. Surface high pressure settling
into the Great Lakes region Thursday and bring dry weather through
Thu night along with more comfortable humidity levels with
dewpoints in the lower 60s and highs in the lower 80s with a few
upper 70s ne areas. As high pressure drifts east into New England
Friday will get a return southerly flow of warmer 80s and
gradually more humid air with dewpoints rising back into upper 60s
and lower 70s late this week. Also have disturbances tracking ese
from northern plains into the area from Friday afternoon into the
weekend bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Best
chances appears to be Friday night especially northern areas.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1111 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL FOCUS ON THE NEXT ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND FAR NORTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS. A LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION...WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION FOR ANY POTENTIAL SIGNALS OF STRONG WINDS...AS IT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO HANDEL THIS WIND THREAT WITH SPS`S UNLESS THE STORMS SHOW SIGNS
OF STRONGER WINDS. OTHERWISE...THIS LINE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT OUT
OF MY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TO BEGIN TO STALL OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THIS THREAT WILL MAINLY REMAIN SOUTH OF MY AREA. HOWEVER...I
DID LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE RATHER WARM
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO TOP OUT WELL INTO THE
80S. IT APPEARS THE SYNOPTIC WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT
ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM ALONG THE
SHORES OF COOK COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...AND THIS WOULD
LEAD TO SOME COOLER CONDITIONS THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY SHORT
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AMPLIFICATION...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO
AROUND 40 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. IT
APPEARS THE NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET AND MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
WILL SET UP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN IOWA AND INTO
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE EAST TO WEST
ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ALSO HENCE BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND SEVERE STORMS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION...NEAR THE TRACK OF
THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW.
IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THE EVOLVING COLD FRONT MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS IT
SHIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY
LOCALLY. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW ROBUST
THE CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA...GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF MOST
OF THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING ROBED FROM THE CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH...AND HENCE WEAKER MUCAPE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA. NEVERTHELESS...I WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE LOW END LIKELY POPS GIVEN THE RATHER STRONG SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
DIG ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...BUT NOT
ZERO...MAINLY DUE TO THE EARLY MORNING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LACK OF BETTER INSTABILITY.
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF MY AREA...BUT SHOULD
END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN SPITE OF
THIS...HOWEVER...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS DISTURBED. THIS ACTIVITY
WOULD LIKELY BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND
DIURNAL IN NATURE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR STORMS FOR
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER AND MUCH
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS AS THE FLOW BECOMES DIRECTED OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER TUESDAY WILL
NOT BE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* PSBL LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST AT MDW THIS
AFTN...WITH A CHANCE LAKE BREEZE MAKES IT ORD.
* CHANCE OF TSRA LATE TONIGHT.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IS APPARENT ON TMDW AND KLOT RADAR AND
PUSHING INLAND AT ABOUT 2-3 MPH. PURE EXTRAPOLATION SUPPORTS
CURRENT TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST AT MDW AND EVEN
ADDS CONCERN THAT LAKE BREEZE COULD MAKE IT TO ORD.
HOWEVER...CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF BOUNDARY SEEMS TO SUPPORT
PREVAILING IDEA IN GUIDANCE OF IT MAKING A BETTER INLAND PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF ORD AND NOT MAKING IT TO ORD. HAVE NOT ADDED ANY WIND
SHIFT TO ORD TAF BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING AT MDW IS ONLY MEDIUM GIVEN THAT LAKE BREEZES ARE
TYPICALLY NON-LINEAR IN THEIR MOVEMENT INLAND.
RC
FROM 12Z...
THE LINE OF STORMS IS NOW OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND EAST CENTRAL
IL THIS MORNING WHILE THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MI
THROUGH NW IL AND THEN INTO SE IA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST
AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS AFTN. THE MVFR FOG AND
CIGS WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS THE REST
OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN NW ARND 10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
AND A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. THINKING THE LAKE BREEZE
WILL ONLY IMPACT MDW AND GYY...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE IT WILL STALL
BEFORE REACHING MDW.
ANOTHER LOW/COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG IT. HAVE
LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THIS LINE OF
STORMS SO STILL AM ONLY CARRYING A PROB30 RIGHT NOW. THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT LOWER VSBY MORE THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED AS WELL.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM IN TIMING OF LAKE BREEZE SHIFT AT MDW...LOW IN LAKE
BREEZE MAKING IT TO ORD.
* MEDIUM IN TSRA LATE TONIGHT AND TIMING.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHC TSRA.
SUNDAY...SCHC TSRA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
203 AM CDT
WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GO AS SCHEDULED THIS MORNING AS
WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEST
WINDS 10-15 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS TURN SW OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...AND THEN VARIABLE/ONSHORE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS AFTN. ANOTHER LOW MOVES OVER THE LAKE
TUESDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE...WHILE THE NORTHERN THIRD WILL SEE EAST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THE LOW QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AND
MERGES WITH THE FIRST LOW OVER QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME W TO NW ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN MOVES IN MID WEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITH PERIODS OF
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND WINDS BECOME SOUTH 10-20 KT.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1042 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1042 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
15z/10am surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from
Chicago to near Quincy. Ahead of the boundary, a band of low
clouds blankets much of central Illinois. Latest radar imagery is
beginning to show a few showers developing within this band,
primarily along and south of a Danville...to Decatur...to
Jacksonville line. Both the 12z NAM and HRRR show showers and
thunderstorms becoming more widespread later this afternoon across
the far SE KILX CWA. Have updated the forecast to limit POPs to
the southern half of the CWA only, with the highest chances
along/south of I-70.
40-45kt LLJ is progged to develop across eastern Kansas into
northern Missouri tonight, triggering a cluster of thunderstorms
west of the Mississippi River. This convection is expected to
track eastward into central Illinois overnight, potentially
producing strong winds and heavy rainfall. The exact evolution and
track of the storms still remains in doubt: however, the timing
looks to be firmly after midnight. As such, have updated POPs
tonight to go with dry conditions during the evening except across
the far SE where a few thunderstorms may linger. Then have gone
with likely POPs across the board after midnight as the storm
complex arrives from the west. Zone update has already been
issued.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 651 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
A frontal boundary will stall in the vicinity of the central
Illinois terminals today. However, the threat of shower/storms for
most of the 12Z TAF valid time is fairly minimal. Aside from the
next hour or so at KCMI & KDEC...do not really expect much
precipitation coverage until 06Z Tuesday or later. Once some MVFR
cigs in the vicinity of the front mix out/and or lift early this
morning...VFR conditions should prevail outside of any heavier
thunderstorms later tonight. However...confidence in the details
is too low to mention at this time.
Bak
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night
Much of central and southeast IL remains in a slight risk of
severe storms later today and tonight per SPC day1 outlook. Just
far ne CWA around Marshall county is outside this risk area. A
weakening cold front over se parts of WI/IA and nw MO early this
morning will push se into central IL during today. Most of
convection has been focused from ne IL ne into lower MI early this
morning though a few cells have recently appeared along an outflow
boundary from northern McLean county westward to around Macomb to
Burlington, IA. Daytime heating of very unstable airmass along
with some wind shear to bring increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon especially late over central
and southern areas. Then MCS to develop over central plains this
evening and spread east into central/southern IL overnight into
Tue morning and this too will have risk of severe storms and heavy
rains especially sw areas. Greatest threat of damaging winds and
tornadoes is over northern MO, southern IA and eastern Nebraska.
Very warm and humid today with highs in the upper 80s to near 90F.
Lows tonight in upper 60s north and lower 70s south.
MCS to diminish from west to east during Tue morning while
stronger cold front pushes into southeast IL Tue afternoon where
best chances of convection will be. SPC keeps slight risk of
severe storms south of our CWA in southern IL Tue. Have lingered a
chance of showers and thunderstorms in southeast IL Tue evening
mainly until sunset then dry weather returns rest of Tue night and
Wed as weak high pressure settles into the Midwest. Highs in the
lower 80s Tue central IL and mid 80s southeast IL and still humid.
Then less humid Wed with highs mostly in the lower 80s.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday
Extended models continue to show IL in a wnw upper level flow late
this week with upper level trof over the Ohio river valley and
upper level ridging in the west. Surface high pressure settling
into the Great Lakes region Thursday and bring dry weather through
Thu night along with more comfortable humidity levels with
dewpoints in the lower 60s and highs in the lower 80s with a few
upper 70s ne areas. As high pressure drifts east into New England
Friday will get a return southerly flow of warmer 80s and
gradually more humid air with dewpoints rising back into upper 60s
and lower 70s late this week. Also have disturbances tracking ese
from northern plains into the area from Friday afternoon into the
weekend bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Best
chances appears to be Friday night especially northern areas.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
426 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHILE A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
AREA BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
SCATTERED CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SAG THROUGH
NORTHWEST INDIANA. ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
PEAK HEATING APPROACHES...BUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAY WORK AGAINST
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS WEAK FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
CENTRAL ZONES THIS EVENING...BEFORE WASHING OUT. CONVECTION MAY TEND
TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK...BUT WITH DECENT 850MB FLOW OVER THE
AREA...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER DARK AS WELL. WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING TONIGHT ALL AREAS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH DEEP SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
MOST OF THE MODEL DATA INDICATE AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS COMPLEX LOOKS TO REACH
THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE ON TUESDAY...PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS COMPLEX WILL BE AIDED BY A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...SO THINK THIS COMPLEX
HAS GOOD POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR AWHILE. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS STARTING AT SUNRISE TUESDAY...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS BY AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COMPLEX PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES STRONGER BY THE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY...SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE COMPLEX EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY STILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS
GOING THERE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE ON THE WARM SIDE. WILL NUDGE DOWN THE GUIDANCE
NUMBERS A CATEGORY DURING THOSE PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS LOOK OK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL END THE WORK WEEK ON A DRY NOTE. THEN THE
PATTERN WILL RETURN TO AN UNSETTLED ONE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS RETURN
FLOW OF WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS
AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVING ALONG A
BOUNDARY WILL MEAN RENEWED AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 072100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
LOOKS LIKE TSRA WILL STAY AWAY FROM KIND BUT SOME WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT VCTS MENTION. MVFR CEILINGS LOOK TO PERSIST A
COUPLE OF HOURS LONGER. AT KBMG ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA BASED
ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN TSRA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTERACT WITH AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND RESULT IN RENEWED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HRRR IS DEPICTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY AROUND AND SOUTH OF I-70. TRIED TO SHOW THIS WITH EITHER -TS
OR VCTS GROUPS IN TAFS. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY
AFTER SUNSET BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES VERY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS WAS PUSHED BACK BASED ON LATEST
SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS. HAVE TSTMS INTRODUCED AT KLAF AROUND
10Z AND START THUNDER AT KHUF/KIND AT 12Z AND AND HOUR OR TWO
LATER TO GET TO KBMG. THERE IS STILL PLENTY UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO TSTM COVERAGE BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS...SOME QUITE HEAVY. FOR NOW ONLY INDICATED MFVR IN
TAFS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS FLIGHT CATEGORY COULD VERY WELL NEED
TO BE LOWERED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20 KNOTS TODAY AND AFTER 15Z TUESDAY. TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO
DROP TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
231 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHILE A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
AREA BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
SCATTERED CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SAG THROUGH
NORTHWEST INDIANA. ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
PEAK HEATING APPROACHES...BUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAY WORK AGAINST
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS WEAK FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
CENTRAL ZONES THIS EVENING...BEFORE WASHING OUT. CONVECTION MAY TEND
TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK...BUT WITH DECENT 850MB FLOW OVER THE
AREA...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER DARK AS WELL. WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING TONIGHT ALL AREAS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH DEEP SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
MOST OF THE MODEL DATA INDICATE AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS COMPLEX LOOKS TO REACH
THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE ON TUESDAY...PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS COMPLEX WILL BE AIDED BY A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...SO THINK THIS COMPLEX
HAS GOOD POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR AWHILE. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS STARTING AT SUNRISE TUESDAY...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS BY AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COMPLEX PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES STRONGER BY THE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY...SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE COMPLEX EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY STILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS
GOING THERE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE ON THE WARM SIDE. WILL NUDGE DOWN THE GUIDANCE
NUMBERS A CATEGORY DURING THOSE PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS LOOK OK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL END THE WORK WEEK ON A DRY NOTE. THEN THE
PATTERN WILL RETURN TO AN UNSETTLED ONE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS RETURN
FLOW OF WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS
AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVING ALONG A
BOUNDARY WILL MEAN RENEWED AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 071800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTERACT WITH AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND RESULT IN RENEWED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HRRR IS DEPICTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY AROUND AND SOUTH OF I-70. TRIED TO SHOW THIS WITH EITHER -TS
OR VCTS GROUPS IN TAFS. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY
AFTER SUNSET BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES VERY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS WAS PUSHED BACK BASED ON LATEST
SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS. HAVE TSTMS INTRODUCED AT KLAF AROUND
10Z AND START THUNDER AT KHUF/KIND AT 12Z AND AND HOUR OR TWO
LATER TO GET TO KBMG. THERE IS STILL PLENTY UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO TSTM COVERAGE BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS...SOME QUITE HEAVY. FOR NOW ONLY INDICATED MFVR IN
TAFS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS FLIGHT CATEGORY COULD VERY WELL NEED
TO BE LOWERED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20 KNOTS TODAY AND AFTER 15Z TUESDAY. TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO
DROP TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
119 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
A WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING IT. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM UPSTREAM AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK FROM WEDNESDAY ON...ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
EARLIER CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN A DECAYING MODE APPEARS TO BE TIED
TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THE JET WEAKENS WITH TIME.
OTHERWISE...APPEARS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THIS
FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
MAY REDEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON HOURS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...BUT
EXTENSIVE LOWER CLOUD EXPANDING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS MAY
DELAY OR HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. THIS MORNING/S
UPPER AIR INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
STORMS LATER TODAY. GOING POP FORECAST STILL LOOKS OK.
GIVEN THE EXPANDING LOW CLOUD TRENDS RECENTLY...WILL LOWER THE HIGHS
TODAY A CATEGORY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
LINE OF STORMS STRETCHES FROM MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS
MORNING...BUT HAS SHOWN LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST BEYOND
THIS. THIS LINE MAY IMPACT THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND WILL CONCENTRATE THE HIGHEST POPS THERE EARLY ON. AS
THE DAY WEARS ON AND THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE
AREA...WILL CONCENTRATE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AREA IS UNDER SLIGHT RISK...AND THIS
IS REASONABLE AS AT LEAST MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AND WEAK TO
MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT.
ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK AND FEW CHANGES REQUIRED.
HOWEVER...COULD REQUIRE ADJUSTMENT LATER TODAY DEPENDING ON
EXPANSE OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST TO GO DRY FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. IN THE MEANTIME...SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE BOUNDARY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OF ONE
OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES UPSTREAM THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AT THIS
TIME.
CONSENSUS TEMPS THROUGHOUT APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW TWEAKS.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST DAYS THIS WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
ALTHOUGH EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES IN
TIMING VARIOUS UPPER WAVES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
AREA...THEY ALL POINT TO WESTERN RIDGING WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THEY ALSO AGREE THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW OF WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER WAVES IN THE MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH A LATE WEEKEND
FRONTAL SYSTEM SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AND REGIONAL
ALLBLEND CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ON.
BELOW NORMAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
LOOK GOOD ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THEN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 071800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTERACT WITH AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND RESULT IN RENEWED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HRRR IS DEPICTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY AROUND AND SOUTH OF I-70. TRIED TO SHOW THIS WITH EITHER -TS
OR VCTS GROUPS IN TAFS. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY
AFTER SUNSET BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES VERY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS WAS PUSHED BACK BASED ON LATEST
SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS. HAVE TSTMS INTRODUCED AT KLAF AROUND
10Z AND START THUNDER AT KHUF/KIND AT 12Z AND AND HOUR OR TWO
LATER TO GET TO KBMG. THERE IS STILL PLENTY UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO TSTM COVERAGE BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS...SOME QUITE HEAVY. FOR NOW ONLY INDICATED MFVR IN
TAFS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS FLIGHT CATEGORY COULD VERY WELL NEED
TO BE LOWERED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20 KNOTS TODAY AND AFTER 15Z TUESDAY. TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO
DROP TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JAS
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1207 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
CLOUDS TODAY CONTINUE TO COMPLICATE THIS EVENINGS CONVECTION
CHANCES. LOW LEVEL STRATUS WHICH FORMED IN THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
FEED ACROSS THE AREA HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FORECAST. ALOFT WE ARE ALSO DEALING WITH A SUFFICIENT
MID LEVEL CAP AT H700 WITH TEMPS FROM 10 TO 12C IN THE WARM SECTOR
THAT HAS TENDED TO KEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. COMBINED WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING COOL FRONT...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO TAKE OFF ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
MN/WESTERN WI. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT CAP SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG AND WEST OF I35 THIS EVENING...WHILE ERODING EAST OF THAT LINE
WITH THE HELP OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD BUILD BACK
WEST SOUTHWEST WITH TIME THROUGH 06Z. GENERALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SINCE THE CAP ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER AS
THE STORMS MOVE BACK WEST INTO IOWA. NEARLY ALL THE MODELS INCLUDING
THE HRRR FAVOR THIS SCENARIO. SO...HAVE TRIMMED POP/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FROM I35 WEST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG THE IA/MO
BORDER WHERE LATE MID EVENING SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION MAY LINGER
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AIRMASS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN IA STILL
RATHER UNSTABLE AND ANY STORMS THAT BUILD BACK TO THE WEST WILL
STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PRODUCE SVR WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
INITIALLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET MONDAY MORNING WITH
SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED IN MO/KS. SHORTWAVE WILL BE RAPIDLY
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ALL
INDICATE SURFACE MOISTURE RETURNING WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE
U60S/L70S BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF IOWA AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
FOCUS OF THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY IMPACT SOUTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF
THE STATE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS AGAIN MAY BE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATE WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
PRODUCE CONVECTION FARTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF CENTRAL IOWA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT WITH LESS
COVERAGE.
DRIER AIR WILL FITLER INTO THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. BOTH GFS AND EURO
CONTINUE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WITH NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE
THE NEXT APPRECIABLE THREAT OF CONVECTION WITH GFS TRYING TO
LINGER ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND AS IT LEAVES THE FRONT
IN VICINITY OF IA. EURO PUSHES THE BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...07/06Z
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
COLD FRONT NEAR A KDBQ TO KICL LINE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE
STATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME MVFR FOG AROUND
SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST IA LATE MON WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SPREADING THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL END TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR WED AND THU WITH GOOD VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...MS JUL 14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
313 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
Currently monitoring visible satellite this afternoon where multiple
boundaries are positioned across the region. A weak boundary was
tracking southeast through the CWA while a stronger area of outflow
winds was pushing southward into southern NE and far northern KS. A
weak warm front resided near the KS/NE border while the stronger
cold front was located over southern SD. Remnant cloud cover from
this morning`s showers were finally exiting east central KS,
allowing temps to quickly rise into the 90s, as heat indices
approach the low 100s. Dewpoints continue to mix down into the low
and middle 60s. On the water vapor in the mid levels, two vorticity
maxima were noted over northern NE and a stronger wave dropping southeast
from North Dakota.
Late this afternoon, surface CAPE near 3000 J/KG while effective
shear increases between 30 and 50 kts is supportive of strong to severe
convection. Main limiting factor for surface based convection is the
capping inversion holding across much of the area as seen on the 19Z
KTOP RAOB. Latest 4-KM WRF, HRRR, and RUC keep convection at bay
until after 00Z but could not entirely rule out a few updrafts
developing along the leading outflow boundary or warm front in
vicinity of KS/NE border. If a storm develops, it will be capable of
large hail and damaging winds.
Highest chances for severe convection reside after 00Z as scattered
storms along the reinforcing cold front and upper trough shift south
and east across Nebraska, northeast Kansas, and northern Missouri. the
progressive nature of the system, in addition to stout forward
propagating Corfidi vectors approaching 55 to 60 kts signal damaging
winds to be the primary hazards with this evening`s storms. Large
hail is also possible. Locally heavy rainfall will depend on the
speed of the line and any training convection that occurs towards
central KS along the boundary. Tornado potential is low in far
northern KS where the frontal boundary and weak low level shear
maximizes near 15 kts. Likely precip chances were focused over
northern, northeast, and east central areas based on the position of
the upper trough axis as the main line of storms quickly shifts
southeast overnight.
Guidance is on track to clear precip through by Tuesday mid morning
as skies become mostly sunny during the afternoon. A cooler and stable
airmass in the system`s wake will only bring temps to the 80s for
highs. Northerly winds increase between 10 and 15 mph sustained.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
Wed/Thurs...Should have a cool night Tuesday night as skies clear
and cooler airmass with lower dewpoints slides southward into the
forecast area. Strong sunshine and deeper mixing on Wednesday
should return high temperatures back into the middle 80s east to
upper 80s west. Still some consensus that front retreats back
northeast overnight Wednesday night into Thursday and brings a
chance for storms as it does so, although coverage may be shut
down quickly as warm temps and cap return aloft by the late
afternoon Thursday. Eastern counties may be able to stay a few
degrees cooler depending on how fast clouds and precip chances
diminish.
As upper flow becomes slightly northwest into Thursday night,
passing wave still progged to generate an MCS mainly north of our
area then sliding east. Kept slight chances as some models slide
this boundary into our forecast area. Some discrepancies in the
extended as EC lays this boundary over the area through the
weekend while GFS is farther north and a warmer drier solution.
The GFS ensembles favor the warmer pattern and have left the
extended as such.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
VFR seen through afternoon before a line of TSRA impacts terminals
aft 02Z. Confidence on timing is not exact with short term
guidance varying the speed of the cold front between 01Z and 04Z.
Strong and variable wind gusts are possible near the leading edge
of TSRA. MVFR visibility is likely under convection as FROPA veers
southerly winds to the north at or above 12 kts sustained.
Thunder clears the TAF sites 09-10Z with VFR conditions returning.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
309 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
...Updated Long Term section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
Tonight:
The main focus for tonight is where convection will be located and how
severe. Right now, visible satellite imagery shows some developing cumulus
across the Plains of east-central Colorado. Expect further development
of cumulus into northwest Kansas through the afternoon. This activity
is along a frontal boundary. Convective allowing models break out thunderstorms
this evening with the best chances along the I-70 corridor. Storms may
extend all the way down to Highway 96, though, later tonight. As far
as severity, some of the models want to mix out current dewpoints, which,
so far, is not happening as much as the models indicate. Running the
thermodynamic and wind-related parameters through the Large Hail Parameter
(LHP) comes up with a value of 6. This basically suggests that hail
could potentially be up to the size of golf balls. Not really sure if
we will get a sustained weakly rotating updraft or not, so hail could
be smaller. There is not a threat of tornadoes. There could be 60+ mph
outflow winds, as an inverted-v thermodynamic profile is expected. Have
the highest pops for Trego and Ellis counties and then taper values
quickly southward as thunderstorms are not expected along and south
of a line from Coolidge to St. John. The most recent HRRR has storms
south of this line, however, this model tends to overdo cold pools and
resultant upscale growth. Overnight lows will be in the 60s/70s.
Tomorrow:
Much cooler temperatures are expected for tomorrow as the aforementioned
front sinks south of the region. Have lowered maximums as the majority
of the models are now cooler with "cold" air advection in the wake of
the front. Expecting maximums mostly in the mid 80s along with 10-20
mph N/NE winds. There could be some storms along and south of the Arkansas
river...have slight pops in after 21Z, but most of the precipitation
will be during the long term period.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
The cold front which will come down Tuesday will slow its southward
push and weaken Tuesday Night. The frontal zone, around 800mb will
be across the northern Panhandles northeastward along the KS-OK
border, which will be a focus for at least isolated or widely
scattered thunderstorms. It is still unclear whether a small
mesoscale convective system (MCS) will develop along the frontal
zone or not (and if so, whether it will be this far north into
southwest Kansas or not). For now, we will keep Chance POPs (25+)
across far southwest Kansas from roughly Elkhart to Meade with
Slight Chance (15-24) from roughly Scott City to Stafford. The front
will dissolve by Wednesday, however temperatures will still be mild
by early/mid July standards with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Any thunderstorms Wednesday through early/mid evening should be
confined to the higher terrain west of the southwest Kansas region.
Warm frontogenesis will increase in the 06-12Z time frame early
Thursday morning in the 850-700mb layer, and we will continue to
carry Chance POPs across central and south-central Kansas. The
updated forecast does reduce the POPs along/west of Highway 283,
though. The summer ridge will build in the mid-upper troposphere
with lower troposphere responding with quite a bit warmer
temperatures in the +27 to +29C range at 850mb. Even slightly warmer
temperatures Friday will support afternoon surface temperatures in
the 99 to 101F territory. We will carry some Slight Chance POPs in
the western/northwester zones for mainly diurnal lee trough/higher
terrain storms which may drift into western Kansas.
As we head into the upcoming weekend, we will start to see some
amplification occurring in the jet stream pattern cross
northwestern North America, with a pronounced ridge developing along
the Pacific Coast of British Columbia. This would lead to downstream
troughing throughout much of the rest of Canada into the Upper
Midwest region of the CONUS. What this would mean for southwestern
Kansas is the eventual frontal passage, perhaps as early as late
Saturday (ECMWF) or Sunday (Canadian GEM). During the 14-17 July
time frame, there is a large degree of uncertainty in how the upper
tropospheric pattern will play out, but the ECMWF does suggest a
much cooler and wetter scenario during this 8-10 Day time frame. To
a lesser degree, the GFS does hint at this, but is also quite a bit
delayed in longwave troughing across the northern CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
Convective potential is still the highest at KHYS this evening as
all the convective allowing models are in fair agreement that
there will be no convection farther south. Have included a tempo
group as a result. Other concern is wind shift with fropa late
tonight. NNE-NE winds 15-25 kt possible through overnight pd across
the terminals.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 86 64 88 / 10 20 20 20
GCK 66 85 63 89 / 20 20 20 20
EHA 67 85 64 91 / 10 30 30 20
LBL 69 87 65 92 / 10 30 30 20
HYS 66 85 63 88 / 50 10 10 10
P28 72 89 67 89 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
227 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
...Update to short term...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
Tonight:
The main focus for tonight is where convection will be located and how
severe. Right now, visible satellite imagery shows some developing cumulus
across the Plains of east-central Colorado. Expect further development
of cumulus into northwest Kansas through the afternoon. This activity
is along a frontal boundary. Convective allowing models break out thunderstorms
this evening with the best chances along the I-70 corridor. Storms may
extend all the way down to Highway 96, though, later tonight. As far
as severity, some of the models want to mix out current dewpoints, which,
so far, is not happening as much as the models indicate. Running the
thermodynamic and wind-related parameters through the Large Hail Parameter
(LHP) comes up with a value of 6. This basically suggests that hail
could potentially be up to the size of golf balls. Not really sure if
we will get a sustained weakly rotating updraft or not, so hail could
be smaller. There is not a threat of tornadoes. There could be 60+ mph
outflow winds, as an inverted-v thermodynamic profile is expected. Have
the highest pops for Trego and Ellis counties and then taper values
quickly southward as thunderstorms are not expected along and south
of a line from Coolidge to St. John. The most recent HRRR has storms
south of this line, however, this model tends to overdo cold pools and
resultant upscale growth. Overnight lows will be in the 60s/70s.
Tomorrow:
Much cooler temperatures are expected for tomorrow as the aforementioned
front sinks south of the region. Have lowered maximums as the majority
of the models are now cooler with "cold" air advection in the wake of
the front. Expecting maximums mostly in the mid 80s along with 10-20
mph N/NE winds. There could be some storms along and south of the Arkansas
river...have slight pops in after 21Z, but most of the precipitation
will be during the long term period.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
This extended period will begin with Tuesday night. A small short
wave in the upper atmosphere will be coming northeast from the
southwest, with low and mid-level moisture overriding a front which
will be across New Mexico and Oklahoma. Just slight chances for
storms at first in our southwest corner, followed by a brief period
of 30 percent Pops. A warm front will then get pushed northeastward
late Tuesday night, and the small 20 percent thunderstorm chances
will advance northeast with the front, in the form of a NW to SE
oriented 20 to 40 mile wide band. Precip chances will diminish
toward Wednesday morning, as the front out races the upper level
support. Late Wednesday, a lee side trough will trigger a few
thunderstorms in our west and southwest zones, with another upper
short wave trough traveling southwest through Western Kansas
Wednesday night. Since plenty of low level moisture will be in
place when the upper trough moves through, 30 to 40 percent chances
for thunderstorms seems appropriate, especially in our eastern zones
Wednesday night. There could be some good rainfall amounts in the
Hays to St. John areas Wednesday night. Then the upper high pressure
ridge will build in across the western parts of the southern
plains Thursday, and cut off our chances for widespread rain. Each
afternoon a lee side trough will form, and on Friday evening and
night, as well as on both Saturday and Sunday evenings, and there
will be slight chances for thunderstorms in our west. On Monday, a
small upper low pressure wave forms in far western Kansas and
moves across Kansas. This will help aid storms form north of the
I-70 corridor Sunday night, and in our northeast and east zones
Monday.
Wednesday will start out relatively mild, with maximum temperatures
around 90 degrees. Then the warm air advances back into Western
Kansas. 850 mb temps near 30C in our west Thursday, ranging down to
25C in our east zones will yield highs Thursday in the upper 90s
west to the lower 90s east. Max Temperatures will be very similar
Friday through Sunday. When that upper low moves across Monday,
plenty of clouds will be present, and highs will be considerably
lower in the mid to upper 80s.
Minimum temperatures will average in the middle 60s on Thursday and
again on Monday. For the Friday through Sunday stretch, minimums
will be the lower to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
Convective potential is still the highest at KHYS this evening as
all the convective allowing models are in fair agreement that
there will be no convection farther south. Have included a tempo
group as a result. Other concern is wind shift with fropa late
tonight. NNE-NE winds 15-25 kt possible through overnight pd across
the terminals.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 86 64 90 / 10 20 20 20
GCK 66 85 63 91 / 20 20 20 20
EHA 67 85 64 93 / 10 30 30 20
LBL 69 87 65 91 / 10 30 30 20
HYS 66 85 63 89 / 50 10 10 10
P28 72 89 67 90 / 10 20 30 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1124 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TI MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT
THOUGH...ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD NEAR THE TN BORDER AND
PARTS OF THE VA BORDER. SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER
PARTS OF BELL COUNTY BUT RAIN GAGES NEAR MIDDLESBORO SUGGEST THE
RADAR ESTIMATES ARE OVERDONE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON OBSERVATION AND RADAR TRENDS.
EARLIER SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS HAVE STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA AND WARM AIR AND ASSOCIATED
RATHER STABLE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 400 AND 500 MB CONTINUES TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR TO CONVECTION DESPITE OTHER FAVORABLE PARAMETERS.
CONVECTION NEAR THE TN BORDER SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE RATHER WIDESPREAD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN EVENT WHERE IT OCCURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
STORMS CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME ORGANIZING. UPDRAFTS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE ABLE TO MUSTER ENOUGH STRENGTH TO OVERCOME SOME WARM AIR
BETWEEN 400 AND 500 MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW THIS WARM LAYER
GOING AWAY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT INTO THE EVENING...BUT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DWINDLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
STORMS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER EAST KENTUCKY DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...BUT BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUDS AND
STORMS SHOULD RESPOND TO THIS AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
IGNITE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR HAS BEEN ADAMANT THAT
STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST OVER OUR AREA...BUT LATEST RAP
MAKES A LITTLE MORE SENSE CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT. IT DEVELOPS
CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND THEN TO OUR NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH THE
FRONT. THIS CONVECTION THEN MOVES OVER US INTO THE EVENING...WITH
THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION LOOKING TO TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE
ACTIVITY. FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION AND DID LOWER POPS
A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH BASED ON MODEL DATA. WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUD
COVER MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE AGAIN...BUT MODELS INDICATE STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY WITH ADEQUATE CAPE TO POP OFF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AS TEMPS RISE AGAIN
INTO THE 80S. THIS THREAT WILL END QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF WAS COMING MUCH MORE INTO LINE WITH
THE GFS MODEL...WITH A DRY START TO THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
CONSENSUS VIEW IS NOW FOR A VIGOROUS AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SOUTHERN CANADA
AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE
AT ITS MOST POTENT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...AS IT DIPS SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK NEXT
WEEK. THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH
THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN LENDING ITSELF TO MORE MOIST AND ACTIVE
PERIOD AND RAIN CHANCES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE COOLER
DAY TIME HIGHS OCCURRING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THE START OF THE PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE MORE WARM AND HUMID.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 9Z OR SO...THOUGH CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST 3Z SHOULD
COME CLOSEST TO SME AND LOZ. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 7Z AND 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
903 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON OBSERVATION AND RADAR TRENDS.
EARLIER SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS HAVE STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA AND WARM AIR AND ASSOCIATED
RATHER STABLE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 400 AND 500 MB CONTINUES TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR TO CONVECTION DESPITE OTHER FAVORABLE PARAMETERS.
CONVECTION NEAR THE TN BORDER SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE RATHER WIDESPREAD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN EVENT WHERE IT OCCURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
STORMS CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME ORGANIZING. UPDRAFTS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE ABLE TO MUSTER ENOUGH STRENGTH TO OVERCOME SOME WARM AIR
BETWEEN 400 AND 500 MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW THIS WARM LAYER
GOING AWAY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT INTO THE EVENING...BUT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DWINDLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
STORMS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER EAST KENTUCKY DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...BUT BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUDS AND
STORMS SHOULD RESPOND TO THIS AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
IGNITE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR HAS BEEN ADAMANT THAT
STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST OVER OUR AREA...BUT LATEST RAP
MAKES A LITTLE MORE SENSE CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT. IT DEVELOPS
CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND THEN TO OUR NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH THE
FRONT. THIS CONVECTION THEN MOVES OVER US INTO THE EVENING...WITH
THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION LOOKING TO TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE
ACTIVITY. FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION AND DID LOWER POPS
A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH BASED ON MODEL DATA. WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUD
COVER MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE AGAIN...BUT MODELS INDICATE STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY WITH ADEQUATE CAPE TO POP OFF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AS TEMPS RISE AGAIN
INTO THE 80S. THIS THREAT WILL END QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF WAS COMING MUCH MORE INTO LINE WITH
THE GFS MODEL...WITH A DRY START TO THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
CONSENSUS VIEW IS NOW FOR A VIGOROUS AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SOUTHERN CANADA
AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE
AT ITS MOST POTENT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...AS IT DIPS SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK NEXT
WEEK. THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH
THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN LENDING ITSELF TO MORE MOIST AND ACTIVE
PERIOD AND RAIN CHANCES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE COOLER
DAY TIME HIGHS OCCURRING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THE START OF THE PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE MORE WARM AND HUMID.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 9Z OR SO...THOUGH CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST 3Z SHOULD
COME CLOSEST TO SME AND LOZ. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 7Z AND 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1002 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0245Z...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE...INTO SRN OK...AND INTO NRN AR NEWD TOWARDS THE
BOOTHEEL OF MO. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND HAVE
ALSO PRODUCED SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST THIS COMPLEX WILL PROBABLY BRUSH OUR MOST NRN
COUNTIES IN SE OK/SW AR...BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN N OF THE CWA
THROUGH 09/06Z. LATEST HRRR INDICATES CONVECTION WILL MOVE S INTO
THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS MAINLY AFFECTING THE NE HALF
OF THE AREA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WWD WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE NLY HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA.
HAVE TWEAKED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR. MINOR
OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO MOST OF THE OTHER GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
OBS. MIN TEMP FCST FOR TONIGHT WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED...BUT ROBUST...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE ERN ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IS PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE SE ZONES THROUGH 03Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. /09/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/
AVIATION...
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE
LA AND IT WILL BE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT A VCTS
IS NECESSARY FOR THE ELD AND MLU TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CU FIELD SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE FOR ALL OTHER
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT AC AND CIRRUS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS S AR INTO NC LA. AS OF 22Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
ANALYZED FROM SOUTH OF OKC TO NEAR FSM AND NORTH OF MEM. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLIDE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT ITSELF.
BELIEVE ALL TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN CONVECTION FREE...AT LEAST
UNTIL 12Z WED WHEN VCSH OR VCTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TXK/ELD
TERMINALS. MENTIONED VCTS AT THE MLU TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON WED AS BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE AT THIS
LOCATION WITH HEATING.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING VARIABLE AT THE TXK/ELD/MLU TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON WED IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.
/13/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE ROCKIES. THIS HAS SUPPRESSED MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL BECOME A FOCUS POINT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH. SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...
FEED BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST...SO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO REACH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MOST LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...
CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE MORNING...THEN RE FIRE IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG ANY REMAINING BOUNDARIES. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED
AT BEST WITH ONLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS AND WASHES OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN
U.S. BY THURSDAY. ANY ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM
WEAK SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EAST AND THIS SHOULD END THE RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST
OF THE CWA EXCEPT ISOLATED COVERAGE AROUND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 74 94 73 94 73 / 20 30 20 20 20
MLU 73 92 72 92 72 / 30 50 30 30 30
DEQ 70 91 71 92 70 / 30 30 30 30 20
TXK 75 91 72 93 72 / 30 30 30 30 20
ELD 73 92 71 91 71 / 40 50 30 30 30
TYR 76 94 73 93 72 / 10 20 20 10 10
GGG 74 93 72 94 72 / 10 30 20 10 10
LFK 75 94 72 92 71 / 10 20 10 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
956 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
945 PM. UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE PRECIP CHANCES BACK TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE LATEST RADAR LOOP INDICATED SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN VT INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. 00Z UA SHOWED A VIGOROUS
S/WV IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS SWINGING ACROSS NYS. THIS S/WV IS
SHOWN BY THE HRRR AND THE NAM TO LIFT ACROSS QUEBEC AND WESTERN
MAINE OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS DID INDICATE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE W/ELEVATED CAPE HITTING 500-600 J/KG. PWATS RUNNING
1.25-1.50 INCHES W/0-6KM SHEAR OF 25 KTS. DECIDED TO CARRY THE
MENTION OF TSTMS OVERNIGHT W/THE BEST THREAT ACROSS THE WNW. LESS
OF A CHANCE FURTHER E DUE TO SOUTHERLY WIND IN THE BLYR. KEPT THE
MENTION OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING AREA OF CONVECTION COULD THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROF IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH
COOLER READINGS ALONG THE COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LEFT OVER SHOWER AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAY LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ONCE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EXPECT SKIES BE BEGIN
CLEARING AS WE GET INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S NORTH AND MID 70S TO
EVE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
COOL LOW TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
SHELTER VALLEYS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH POSSIBILITY OF A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH LATER IN THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND AND
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY IS LOOKING DRY, BUT ON
SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY, LOOK FOR AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TO INCH CLOSER WITH INCREASED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW, MORE HUMID
AIR, AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND TUESDAY WITH SOME
DRYING/COOLING THEREAFTER.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TONIGHT AWAY FROM ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...RANGING FROM VFR TO LIFR...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AWAY FROM ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: SITES EXPECTED TO STAY VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE: SEAS STRUGGLING TO HIT 5 FT THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE, ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE INITIALLY FOR THE SEAS TO BRING
THEM DOWN A FOOT. DECIDED TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS GOING BUT BACKED UP THE TIMING OF THE SWELL
BUILDING TO 4-6 FT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS
AS SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 4 FT.
SHORT TERM: MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PRIMARILY FOR SEAS. HOWEVER SEAS LOOK TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
928 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP FIRST AROUND THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST. EXPECT THE CHANCE OF SVR WX IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH A SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY EARLY
EVENING. HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND OF STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE BETWEEN 21Z AND 22Z. THIS LINE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
BY 01Z.
PREVIOUSLY...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY REVOLVE AROUND THE CHANCES FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND BE
ASSOCIATED WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES
HERE AND THERE. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF SFC HEATING SHOULD OCCUR FROM
LATE MORNING ON THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THIS WILL
AID IN DESTABILIZATION.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND VT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW PROS AND CONS WITH TODAY/S SETUP
AS IT RELATES TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY. DETRIMENTAL
FACTORS INCLUDE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE ABSENCE OF
REAL RICH MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THOSE FACTORS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR LESS THAN 1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND SO-SO UPDRAFT VELOCITIES.
HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW LATE IN THE
DAY WILL RESULT IN INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES IN THE MIDST
OF IMPROVING UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. IN ADDITION...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD 20 DEGREE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION IN MANY AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE 80S.
THEREFORE...WHILE WE AREN/T EXPECTING A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
TODAY...WE FEEL THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDELY SCT SEVERE
STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE. OUR BEST GUESS IS
THAT ONE OR MORE BOWING SEGMENTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CT RIVER BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING WIND DAMAGE. HAVE
INCLUDED DAMAGING WIND WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR NH GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. HAIL AND TORNADO THREATS ARE NON-ZERO BUT ARE
SECONDARY TO THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
FURTHER EAST IN MAINE...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LESS...BUT A GUSTY WIND/FREQUENT LIGHTNING RISK COULD BE IN THE
CARDS AS NH CONVECTION PUSHES EAST AND WEAKENS DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY MIDNIGHT IF
NOT BEFORE. WE ARE EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY NIGHT AFTER ANY
CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY...AND THE SAME
GENERAL SETUP AS MONDAY IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE. HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL INTO
THE 80S TO AROUND 90.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. ACTUAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE PUSHING
OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR. HIGH TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE COOLER AND
DRIER PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTH.
FAIR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS
WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY BRINGING THE
THREAT OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BULK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
HOWEVER...LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALLOW
FOR LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN NH. SOME FOG AND STRATUS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE COAST TONIGHT. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE.
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY
THROUGH TUE MORNING. A FEW 25 KT GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT.
LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
TFH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
128 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE, WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST TEMPS/SKY COVER. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES ~1020+MB HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH A
RIDGE AXIS TRAILING BACK INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. DISORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN VICINITY OF THE GA/FL COAST.
GOES WV IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY, WHICH WILL DRAW THE LOW OFF THE FL COAST
NORTHEAST JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD BRING NO
MORE THAN A PERIOD OF SCT- BKN CLOUDS TO NE NC/FAR SE VA OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S...TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW, RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY
CONDITIONS MONDAY. A MODEST RISE IN DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED AS SSW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW
VALUES TO FALL/REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH
THE LOW/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST TUESDAY...AND WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AS SECONDARY ENERGY WRAPS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH. THIS WILL DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC BY LATER WEDNESDAY. ANY CONVECTION TUESDAY WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HAVE DIFFICULTY DRIFTING E AS THE THERMAL
PROFILE WILL LIKELY BE TOO STABLE...AND THERE WILL BE A LACK OF ANY
SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER. SOMEWHAT MORE OF A TRIGGER IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO ABOVE A 20-30% POP AT THIS
TIME.
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH MAXIMA RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 100 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN INTO THE MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED UPPER TROF ALONG THE ERN USE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
AMPLIFY SOME TOWARD THE LATER PERIODS. THIS HELPS TO PUSH A FRONT
DOWN INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THE FRONT JUST STALLS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND GFS ENSEMBLE BOTH SHOW A
SIMILAR PATTERN. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS WHETHER THE FRONT COULD
ACTUALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ONE OF THE DAYS BUT FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTHEAST. ALSO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR TO CONTINUE TODAY. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS PER STLT MAINLY SE
PORTIONS SHOULD CLEAR OFF ERLY THIS MORNG. SCT CU EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTN. WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE DAY FROM THE
S/SW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTN.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA IN THE BAY TO 10 AM/14Z AND ADDED THE LOWER JAMES
RIVER. HRRR AND RUC VERIFYING WELL AND WINDS CONTINUE NEAR 20
KNOTS THROUGH 12Z THEN DROP OFF SHARPLY. ADDED LOWER JAMES AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM S TO SW. NE PORTION OF BAY ZONES HAVE THE
STRONGEST WINDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HI PRES WAS CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLC CST LATE THIS AFTN...AND
WILL BECOME ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST THRU WED. HAVE
MAINTAINED A SCA FOR THE CHES BAY ZNS THRU 1 AM TNGT OR 4 AM EARLY
MON MORNG...DUE TO INCREASING S WINDS CLOSE TO 20 KT. SSW WINDS 10
TO 20 KT WILL THEN PREVAIL OVR THE WTRS MON THRU WED...DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF HI PRES ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST AND A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FM THE WNW. SEAS OVR THE CSTL WTRS
WILL AVG 3-4 FT WITH WAVES OVR THE CHES BAY AVGG 2-3 FT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE WTRS LATE WED THRU FRI.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...TMG/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
705 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU THE TROF BROUGHT
SHRA AND SOME TSRA TO MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LAST NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HRS. THAT WAVE IS NOW E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM...THERE
ARE A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES...ONE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AND THE OTHER JUST
TO THE E IN NRN ONTARIO. NEITHER ARE AS STRONG AS THE ONE THAT
AFFECTED THE AREA EARLIER TODAY. THE WAVE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG IS THE
STRONGER OF THE TWO AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER HERE
TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED EARLIER TODAY...
CLOUDS HAVE HELD TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A VERY COOL DAY FOR EARLY JULY STANDARDS. AS OF 19Z...
READINGS WERE STILL ONLY HOVERING AROUND 50F NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND
AROUND 60/LWR 60S ACROSS SCNTRL UPPER MI. SO FAR...TEMP HAS ONLY
REACHED 54F HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP FOR TODAY IS
60F. IF LOW STRATUS HANGS AROUND THRU SUNSET...THAT RECORD WILL
FALL. WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN TO ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE FROM NE MN INTO
NRN WI...BUILD UP OF A LITTLE INSTABILITY UNDER COOL CYCLONIC NW
FLOW COMBINED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED -SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
TO DEVELOP. THOSE SHRA HAVE BEEN BRUSHING MENOMINEE COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...ISOLD -SHRA/PATCHY -DZ HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY.
ISOLD -SHRA MAY LINGER NEAR THE WI/MI BORDER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HRS. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NW. ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVES WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES DURING THE NIGHT
WHEN INSTABILITY IS DIMINISHING TOWARD DIURNAL MIN...EXPECT SOME
SHRA TO PERSIST NEAR THE TRACK OF THE WAVES...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE
AFORMENTIONED STRONGER WRN WAVE. THIS SHOULD PUT BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD/SCT SHRA ROUGHLY OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. SINCE SHORTWAVE
IS WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHTS WAVE...MUCAPE IS UNDER 100J/KG...
SHOWALTER INDEX IS ABOVE 0 AND NO TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED WITH WAVE SO
FAR THIS AFTN...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER TONIGHT.
ISOLD -SHRA MAY LINGER THRU WED MORNING WITH WEAK TRAILING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH SOLID HEIGHT RISES TAKING OVER DURING THE DAY
(12HR 500MB HEIGHTS RISE 70-90M) ALONG WITH COLUMN DRYING...EXPECT A
DRYING TREND WED. THERE MAY BE A FEW AFTN -SHRA OVER THE SCNTRL AS
LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE TRIES TO MOVE INLAND...SO ISOLD -SHRA
MENTION WAS LINGERED INTO THE AFTN IN THAT AREA. AS OPPOSED TO
TODAY...EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP WED UNDER DRYING/HEIGHT
RISES. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS TOWARD 70F INLAND. WHERE WINDS ARE
ONSHORE THRU THE DAY...TEMPS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT GET OUT OF
THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
LARGE SCALE PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OCCURRING THIS TIME
LAST WEEK. TROUGHING TO START THE WEEK THEN RELAXING HEIGHTS MORE
ZONAL FLOW LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SEEMS THIS PATTERN CHANGES
BACK TO TROUGHING QUICKER THOUGH WITH ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH TRENDING BACK
TO TROUGHING BY SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
RAIN CHANCES OCCUR AS THE FLOW GOES ZONAL...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MAIN COLD FROPA OCCURS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. DPROG/DT...SEEING HOW THE MODELS ARE CHANGING OVER THEIR
RECENT RUNS...INDICATES STRONG CONSISTENCY FM THE MODELS IN MASS
FIELDS /MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MSLP/ THROUGH SATURDAY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA ON SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS COOLEST ON WED NIGHT WITH PWATS AROUND 50 PCT OF NORMAL
BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS. FAVORED COLD SPOTS INTERIOR MAY SEE LOWS
AROUND 40 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...READINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50. WARMER NIGHT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY AROUND
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH ONLY LOCAL COOLING NEAR IMMEDIATE
GREAT LAKES SHORES.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO
WORK ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A MORE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF OREGON SLIDES ACROSS
ON FRIDAY. STRONGER WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS MANTIOBA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS SPLIT IN TWO AREAS...STRONGEST
CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN TROUGH. INSTABILITY AXIS BOTH AT SFC AND ALOFT
ELEVATED LAGS BOTH WAVES SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG STORMS LATER THU
NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THETA-E ADVECTION RAMPS UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SUPPORT GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. INSTABILITY REMAINS ONLY MARGINAL WITH
200-400J/KG OF 1-6KM MUCAPE AS GREATEST MLCAPE AND 1-6KM MUCAPE
SETTLES MORE SOUTH INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAN EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE UP TO 30 KTS FRIDAY
NIGHT...SO CANNOT COUNT OUT SOME STRONGER STORMS. SEVERE RISK DOES
APPEAR PRETTY MARGINAL.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 40+ KTS BY SATURDAY AFTN. 12Z ECMWF
INDICATES MORE MLCAPE THAN EARLIER RUNS...CENTERED OVER CNTRL UPR
MICHIGAN IN THE AFTN. LOOKS AS IF THE COLD FRONT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER. AS LONG AS THE SHRA/TSRA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED
COOLING/STABILIZING AFFECTS ARE OUT OF THE WAY IN TIME...COULD SEE
ISOLD STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OVR CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTN
IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE. H7 WINDS ARE MORE WESTERLY. ATTM BASED
ON EXPECTED POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND A MORE WEST TO EAST MEAN
STORM MOTION...LOOKS LIKE GREATEST RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE
OVER SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. WHATEVER SHRA/TSRA ARE AROUND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SHOULD DIMINISH/END LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODEL CONSISTENCY BECOMES MORE JUMPY SUNDAY/MONDAY...BUT LAST COUPLE
RUNS OF EACH MODEL IS HEADING TOWARD MORE TROUGHING/COOLER WEATHER.
PRIMARY ISSUE IS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE
ON LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RECENT RUNS OF GEM-NH STILL HANGING ON TO THIS IDEA WHILE 06Z GFS
WAS THE FIRST GFS RUN SINCE JULY 7/12Z TO SHOW SIMILAR SOLN. 12Z GFS
DOES NOT HAVE IT AGAIN. ECMWF SHOWED STRONGER LOW ON THE JULY 6/12Z
RUN...BUT HAS SINCE BACKED AWAY.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TREND IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR A RETURN TO
TROUGHING AND BLO NORMAL TEMPS...LIKELY OVER 20 DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. CORE OF COOLEST AIR AT H85 OVER
MANITOBA AND ONTARIO BOTTOMS OUT AROUND 0C ON THE ECMWF AND AROUND
+2C ON THE GFS ON MONDAY. UPPER LOW CENTER SETTLES ACROSS GREAT
LAKES BY NEXT TUESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS STAYING BLO +5C AND PLENTY OF
H85-H7 MOISTURE. SFC LOW FORECAST TO BE EAST OF LK SUPERIOR REGION...
SO NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP UPPER GREAT LAKES VERY COOL. RECORD LOW
MAXES FOR MID JULY ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT SOME
VALUES IN JULY ARE EVEN IN THE LOWER 50S. MAY SEE SOME TEMPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK COME CLOSE TO THESE LOWER READINGS. IT IS CERTAINLY WITHIN
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. CHANCES OF SEEING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE
PATTERN PRETTY HIGH...SO THAT WOULD ONLY HELP KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL
SIDE. PROBABLY GOES WITHOUT SAYING...BUT NO REAL STRETCHES OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE SEEN ANYTIME IN THE MEDIUM RANGE TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
ALL TERMINALS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DISTURBANCE DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER LAKES MAY BRING SOME -SHRA TO KIWD/KCMX LATE THIS
EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY CROSSES
LAKE SUPERIOR. COULD SEE DENSE FOG AT TIMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AS SOUTH WINDS TRANSPORT MORE HUMID AIR
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
417 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND SRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH
THROUGH NRN MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO. ONE WEAK SHRTWV IN CNTRL MN
SUPORTED SCT SHRA/TSRA FROM ERN MN INTO CNTRL WI...WHILE A MORE
PROMINENT SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER WRN NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SFC...GUSTY WNW WINDS PREVAILED WITH A 995 MB LOW PRES OVER NRN
ONTARIO(NEAR CYTS).
TONIGHT...THE HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
THE HEAVIER PCPN AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES WHERE THE GREATER
FORCING(700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV) AND INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED AS THE ND SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS...NMS
SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS FARTHER NORTH TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR EAST
OF THE KEWEENAW. THUNDER WAS ALSO ONLY INDCLUDED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH.
TUESDAY...EXPECT THAT HIGHER PCPN CHANCES IN THE MORNING TO DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL PCPN
AMOUNTS SHOULD AGAIN BE GREATEST OVER SRN CWA. THE COMBINATION OF
THICKER CLOUDS AND NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
REINFORCED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BY A SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG) THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FIRST
WAVE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER WAVE WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE WINNIPEG AT 00Z WEDNESDAY AND
ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF IT MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. WILL TRANSITION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THAT TIME. THERE IS LIMITED CAPE...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE
AND POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES (700-500MB AT 6-6.5C/KM) THOUGHT
THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AND HAVE SHOWN SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH.
BEHIND THIS WAVE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS ARE COOLING TO 6-7C ON WEDNESDAY...AND COMBINED
WITH MORNING CLOUDS/RAIN AND NORTHERLY WINDS OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR...IT WILL LEAD TO A BELOW NORMAL DAY ACROSS THE U.P. EXPECT
MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH COOLER VALUES EAST
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND MAYBE REACHING 70 NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER
WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PWATS
AROUND 45 PERCENT OF NORMAL UNDER THE HIGH MOVING THROUGH SHOULD
LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT OVER SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED INTERIOR TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE LOW END OF
GUIDANCE AND HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND 40. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND INTO THE LOW-MID 70S OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WITH LAKE
BREEZES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
EAST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE
WAY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE NEXT WAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AFFECTS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
THAT NEXT WAVE WILL PUSH A LOW EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA...WITH
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FRIDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE SLIDING EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW INCREASING CHANCES DURING THAT PERIOD
AND THEN DIMINISHING LATE IN THE NIGHT AND INTO THE NEXT
MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS VARY BEHIND THIS WAVE/FRONT WITH THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT THE LASTEST TREND IS FOR IT TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A COOLER THAN NORMAL PERIOD
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT GUSTY WNW WINDS TO ALSO CONTINUE THEN DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND BRING INCREASING MID CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT IWD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. AS WINDS SHIFT NE
LATE TONIGHT LOOK FOR MVFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KIWD DROPPING TO IFR
TUE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW BY TUE
MORNING. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH THE RAIN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THAT COULD HELP DROP CIGS TO IFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
ANY STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRESSURE NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIFT TOWARD JAMES BAY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI TONIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY WILL SINK
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
414 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND SRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH
THROUGH NRN MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO. ONE WEAK SHRTWV IN CNTRL MN
SUPORTED SCT SHRA/TSRA FROM ERN MN INTO CNTRL WI...WHILE A MORE
PROMINENT SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER WRN NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SFC...GUSTY WNW WINDS PREVAILED WITH A 995 MB LOW PRES OVER NRN
ONTARIO(NEAR CYTS).
TONIGHT...THE HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
THE HEAVIER PCPN AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES WHERE THE GREATER
FORCING(700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV) AND INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED AS THE ND SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS...NMS
SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS FARTHER NORTH TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR EAST
OF THE KEWEENAW. THUNDER WAS ALSO ONLY INDCLUDED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH.
TUESDAY...EXPECT THAT HIGHER PCPN CHANCES IN THE MORNING TO DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL PCPN
AMOUNTS SHOULD AGAIN BE GREATEST OVER SRN CWA. THE COMBINATION OF
THICKER CLOUDS AND NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT GUSTY WNW WINDS TO ALSO CONTINUE THEN DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND BRING INCREASING MID CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT IWD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. AS WINDS SHIFT NE
LATE TONIGHT LOOK FOR MVFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KIWD DROPPING TO IFR
TUE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW BY TUE
MORNING. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH THE RAIN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THAT COULD HELP DROP CIGS TO IFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
ANY STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRESSURE NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIFT TOWARD JAMES BAY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI TONIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY WILL SINK
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
136 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR PUSHING COLD FRONT AND ASSOC CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING
EAST OF THE CWA. WNW FLOW UPSTREAM ALSO REVEALS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
OF NOTE...ONE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER ND...ANOTHER PRODUCING
CONVECTION OVER SRN ALBERTA AND A THIRD ROTATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
FROM NRN SASKATCHEWAN. A COUPLE OF THESE UPSTREAM WAVES WILL IMPACT
WEATHER TONIGHT OVER UPPER MI.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AS
Q-VECT DIV SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
MIXING OF 12-14C 8H TEMPS TO THE SFC UNDER SUNNY SKIES SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND EAST TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE WI BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING WITH THE
ADVANCE OF Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES
DIVING SE FROM SRN ALBERTA AND NRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NRN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY. ENVIRONMENT OF MLCAPE 200-500 J/KG SHOULD
SUPPORT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA INTO NRN WI AND SW UPPER MI.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY JUST SOUTH INTO NRN WI IN
CYCLONIC FLOW OF MID-LVL TROUGH...MODELS SHOW Q-VECT CONV SPREADING
NE THROUGH THE CWA SO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD HIGHER CHC POPS FOR
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA NE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. UNDER NE-E
FLOW...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW
THROUGH NE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 S
SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
THE SFC STRONGEST LOW AT 12Z TUESDAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL LIKELY BE OVER N LAKE MI AND FAR NW LOWER MI...WITH THE BROAD
500MB TROUGH KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER SET UP ACROSS THE AREA.
UNLIKE THE WARM MUGGY AIR OF THIS MORNING...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING AROUND 17C...850MB TEMPS AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 10C.
THE BEST CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
LAKE MI TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW
FAR N THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL BE ABLE TO INVADE...WITH THE
SMALLER SCALE SOLUTIONS GOING NEARLY DRY FOR MONDAY FOR ALL BUT THE
S CENTRAL PORTIONS OF UPPER MI. AT THIS POINT...AROUND 0.2IN OF
PRECIP IS FCST IS FCST FOR S CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
ANOTHER ELONGATED WAVE IN THE 500MB NW FLOW WILL PUSH IN OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS EACH SYSTEM TO ROUND THE 500MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY LOOSES
MORE AND MORE MOISTURE. LOOK FOR THE 500MB TROUGH TO FINALLY EXIT E
OF UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DRY BUT COOL WEATHER WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS STILL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE SFC HIGH EDGES CLOSER TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WARMER AIR ON S-SW
WINDS WILL RETURN. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES...AS 850MB TEMPS RISE BACK TO AROUND 13C. A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER THE W HALF FRIDAY...AND EXPANDING TO MUCH
OF UPPER LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING W
TO E OVERNIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST
MODELS AT THIS POINT TO RESULT IN LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY-SUNDAY. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS APPROX 6HRS FASTER THAN
THE GFS TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI...EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW OVER FAR N ONTARIO/S LAKE HURON. A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DOESN/T LOOK TO BE IN THE CARDS FOR NOW...AS
COOLER W TO NW FLOW RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE
MORE 70 DEGREE DAYS AHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT GUSTY WNW WINDS TO ALSO CONTINUE THEN DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND BRING INCREASING MID CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT IWD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. AS WINDS SHIFT NE
LATE TONIGHT LOOK FOR MVFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KIWD DROPPING TO IFR
TUE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW BY TUE
MORNING. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH THE RAIN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THAT COULD HELP DROP CIGS TO IFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
LINGERING FOG OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF
ANY STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS/. LOW PRESSURE NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIFT TOWARD JAMES BAY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI TONIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY WILL SINK
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
650 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR PUSHING COLD FRONT AND ASSOC CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING
EAST OF THE CWA. WNW FLOW UPSTREAM ALSO REVEALS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
OF NOTE...ONE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER ND...ANOTHER PRODUCING
CONVECTION OVER SRN ALBERTA AND A THIRD ROTATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
FROM NRN SASKATCHEWAN. A COUPLE OF THESE UPSTREAM WAVES WILL IMPACT
WEATHER TONIGHT OVER UPPER MI.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AS
Q-VECT DIV SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
MIXING OF 12-14C 8H TEMPS TO THE SFC UNDER SUNNY SKIES SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND EAST TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE WI BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING WITH THE
ADVANCE OF Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES
DIVING SE FROM SRN ALBERTA AND NRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NRN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY. ENVIRONMENT OF MLCAPE 200-500 J/KG SHOULD
SUPPORT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA INTO NRN WI AND SW UPPER MI.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY JUST SOUTH INTO NRN WI IN
CYCLONIC FLOW OF MID-LVL TROUGH...MODELS SHOW Q-VECT CONV SPREADING
NE THROUGH THE CWA SO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD HIGHER CHC POPS FOR
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA NE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. UNDER NE-E
FLOW...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW
THROUGH NE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 S
SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
THE SFC STRONGEST LOW AT 12Z TUESDAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL LIKELY BE OVER N LAKE MI AND FAR NW LOWER MI...WITH THE BROAD
500MB TROUGH KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER SET UP ACROSS THE AREA.
UNLIKE THE WARM MUGGY AIR OF THIS MORNING...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING AROUND 17C...850MB TEMPS AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 10C.
THE BEST CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
LAKE MI TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW
FAR N THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL BE ABLE TO INVADE...WITH THE
SMALLER SCALE SOLUTIONS GOING NEARLY DRY FOR MONDAY FOR ALL BUT THE
S CENTRAL PORTIONS OF UPPER MI. AT THIS POINT...AROUND 0.2IN OF
PRECIP IS FCST IS FCST FOR S CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
ANOTHER ELONGATED WAVE IN THE 500MB NW FLOW WILL PUSH IN OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS EACH SYSTEM TO ROUND THE 500MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY LOOSES
MORE AND MORE MOISTURE. LOOK FOR THE 500MB TROUGH TO FINALLY EXIT E
OF UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DRY BUT COOL WEATHER WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS STILL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE SFC HIGH EDGES CLOSER TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WARMER AIR ON S-SW
WINDS WILL RETURN. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES...AS 850MB TEMPS RISE BACK TO AROUND 13C. A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER THE W HALF FRIDAY...AND EXPANDING TO MUCH
OF UPPER LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING W
TO E OVERNIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST
MODELS AT THIS POINT TO RESULT IN LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY-SUNDAY. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS APPROX 6HRS FASTER THAN
THE GFS TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI...EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW OVER FAR N ONTARIO/S LAKE HURON. A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DOESN/T LOOK TO BE IN THE CARDS FOR NOW...AS
COOLER W TO NW FLOW RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE
MORE 70 DEGREE DAYS AHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT GUSTY WNW WINDS TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING THEN
DIMINISH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH COMES IN AND BRINGS INCREASING MID CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT IWD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. AS WINDS
SHIFT NE LATE TONIGHT LOOK FOR MVFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KIWD AND
KSAW UNDER RAIN SHOWERS. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
LINGERING FOG OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF
ANY STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS/. LOW PRESSURE NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIFT TOWARD JAMES BAY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI TONIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY WILL SINK
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
444 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR PUSHING COLD FRONT AND ASSOC CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING
EAST OF THE CWA. WNW FLOW UPSTREAM ALSO REVEALS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
OF NOTE...ONE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER ND...ANOTHER PRODUCING
CONVECTION OVER SRN ALBERTA AND A THIRD ROTATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
FROM NRN SASKATCHEWAN. A COUPLE OF THESE UPSTREAM WAVES WILL IMPACT
WEATHER TONIGHT OVER UPPER MI.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AS
Q-VECT DIV SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
MIXING OF 12-14C 8H TEMPS TO THE SFC UNDER SUNNY SKIES SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND EAST TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE WI BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING WITH THE
ADVANCE OF Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES
DIVING SE FROM SRN ALBERTA AND NRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NRN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY. ENVIRONMENT OF MLCAPE 200-500 J/KG SHOULD
SUPPORT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA INTO NRN WI AND SW UPPER MI.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY JUST SOUTH INTO NRN WI IN
CYCLONIC FLOW OF MID-LVL TROUGH...MODELS SHOW Q-VECT CONV SPREADING
NE THROUGH THE CWA SO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD HIGHER CHC POPS FOR
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA NE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. UNDER NE-E
FLOW...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW
THROUGH NE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 S
SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
THE SFC STRONGEST LOW AT 12Z TUESDAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL LIKELY BE OVER N LAKE MI AND FAR NW LOWER MI...WITH THE BROAD
500MB TROUGH KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER SET UP ACROSS THE AREA.
UNLIKE THE WARM MUGGY AIR OF THIS MORNING...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING AROUND 17C...850MB TEMPS AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 10C.
THE BEST CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
LAKE MI TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW
FAR N THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL BE ABLE TO INVADE...WITH THE
SMALLER SCALE SOLUTIONS GOING NEARLY DRY FOR MONDAY FOR ALL BUT THE
S CENTRAL PORTIONS OF UPPER MI. AT THIS POINT...AROUND 0.2IN OF
PRECIP IS FCST IS FCST FOR S CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
ANOTHER ELONGATED WAVE IN THE 500MB NW FLOW WILL PUSH IN OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS EACH SYSTEM TO ROUND THE 500MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY LOOSES
MORE AND MORE MOISTURE. LOOK FOR THE 500MB TROUGH TO FINALLY EXIT E
OF UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DRY BUT COOL WEATHER WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS STILL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE SFC HIGH EDGES CLOSER TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WARMER AIR ON S-SW
WINDS WILL RETURN. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES...AS 850MB TEMPS RISE BACK TO AROUND 13C. A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER THE W HALF FRIDAY...AND EXPANDING TO MUCH
OF UPPER LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING W
TO E OVERNIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST
MODELS AT THIS POINT TO RESULT IN LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY-SUNDAY. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS APPROX 6HRS FASTER THAN
THE GFS TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI...EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW OVER FAR N ONTARIO/S LAKE HURON. A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DOESN/T LOOK TO BE IN THE CARDS FOR NOW...AS
COOLER W TO NW FLOW RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE
MORE 70 DEGREE DAYS AHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL SITES MON MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. NEXT DISTURBANCE COMES IN AND BRINGS SOME MID
CLOUDS MON NIGHT AND PUT IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT IWD MON EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
LINGERING FOG OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF
ANY STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS/. LOW PRESSURE NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIFT TOWARD JAMES BAY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI TONIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY WILL SINK
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
439 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR PUSHING COLD FRONT AND ASSOC CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING
EAST OF THE CWA. WNW FLOW UPSTREAM ALSO REVEALS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
OF NOTE...ONE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER ND...ANOTHER PRODUCING
CONVECTION OVER SRN ALBERTA AND A THIRD ROTATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
FROM NRN SASKATCHEWAN. A COUPLE OF THESE UPSTREAM WAVES WILL IMPACT
WEATHER TONIGHT OVER UPPER MI.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AS
Q-VECT DIV SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
MIXING OF 12-14C 8H TEMPS TO THE SFC UNDER SUNNY SKIES SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND EAST TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE WI BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING WITH THE
ADVANCE OF Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES
DIVING SE FROM SRN ALBERTA AND NRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NRN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY. ENVIRONMENT OF MLCAPE 200-500 J/KG SHOULD
SUPPORT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA INTO NRN WI AND SW UPPER MI.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY JUST SOUTH INTO NRN WI IN
CYCLONIC FLOW OF MID-LVL TROUGH...MODELS SHOW Q-VECT CONV SPREADING
NE THROUGH THE CWA SO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD HIGHER CHC POPS FOR
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA NE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. UNDER NE-E
FLOW...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW
THROUGH NE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 S
SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...WITH TYPICAL MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON MAGNITUDE AND PATH OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE ALONG OR S/SW OF THE WRN AND
SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR THESE LOCATIONS
FOR THE BEST POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. CONTINUED TO ONLY HAVE
CHANCE POPS DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED THAN WITH
THE PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE...SO CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF EVEN LOWER POPS
/SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE/ DURING THIS TIME.
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE MORE LIMITED WITH TIME...SO ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRI AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AFTER RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER
TUE AND WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S...THE RIDGE WILL BRING
A WARMING TREND AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S /OR EVEN THE
LOW 80S/ INLAND ON FRI.
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRI THROUGH
SAT...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. SUN COULD SEE SOME PRECIP IF THE ECMWF FORECAST VERIFIES
IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE NEAR THE CWA...BUT THE GFS HAS A DRY
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL SITES MON MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. NEXT DISTURBANCE COMES IN AND BRINGS SOME MID
CLOUDS MON NIGHT AND PUT IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT IWD MON EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
LINGERING FOG OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF
ANY STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS/. LOW PRESSURE NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIFT TOWARD JAMES BAY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI TONIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY WILL SINK
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
134 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DOWNSTREAM FROM A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND WRN PLAINS. A PROMINENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NW ONTARIO TO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NE MN FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR CYPL.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS COVER OVER THE REGION HAS INHIBITED DIABATIC HEATING
AND KEPT MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE OVER MAINLY THE
WRN THIRD OF UPPER MI. AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER NE WI NEAR TO IMT
AND NEAR MNM WAS SUPPORTED BY WEAK TO MODERATE 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV AND 30 KNOT WSW 850-750 INFLOW PUSHING MUCAPE VALUES TO 1K
J/KG. ADDITIONAL STRONG TSRA WERE LOCATED OVER NE MN WERE LOCATED
NEAR THE COLD FRONT.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH SOME LATE AFTERNOON CLEARING
OVER WRN UPPER MI...ADDITIONAL HEATING MAY BOOST MLCAPE VALUES INTO
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA
BTWN 21Z-24Z...SCT/NMRS TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THAT
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...SUPPORTED BY 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE
35-40 KNOT RANGE. THE SHRA/TSRA WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ERN CWA
BTWN 00Z-03Z AND END OVER THE CNTRL CWA...AS THE COLD FRONT
ADVANCES. EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST.
MONDAY...EXPECT DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSRA WAS INCLUDED OVER THE FAR SW CWA AS A WEAK SHRTWV NEAR
THE AREA IN CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH OVER NRN
MANITOBA AND NRN ONTARIO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...WITH TYPICAL MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON MAGNITUDE AND PATH OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE ALONG OR S/SW OF THE WRN AND
SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR THESE LOCATIONS
FOR THE BEST POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. CONTINUED TO ONLY HAVE
CHANCE POPS DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED THAN WITH
THE PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE...SO CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF EVEN LOWER POPS
/SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE/ DURING THIS TIME.
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE MORE LIMITED WITH TIME...SO ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRI AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AFTER RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER
TUE AND WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S...THE RIDGE WILL BRING
A WARMING TREND AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S /OR EVEN THE
LOW 80S/ INLAND ON FRI.
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRI THROUGH
SAT...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. SUN COULD SEE SOME PRECIP IF THE ECMWF FORECAST VERIFIES
IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE NEAR THE CWA...BUT THE GFS HAS A DRY
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL SITES MON MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. NEXT DISTURBANCE COMES IN AND BRINGS SOME MID
CLOUDS MON NIGHT AND PUT IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT IWD MON EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO MONDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONG
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS/. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS N MINNESOTA AND W
ONTARIO WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND N LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...BEFORE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY. BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT...AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SINK
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
722 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
LOOKS A QUIET SHORT TERM WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WI ARE LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONGER COLD
ADVECTION AND OUT AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE FEATURE DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS MN AND WI. THERE IS A SECOND PV ANOMALY IN SD WITH TALLER
CUMULUS CLOUDS IN EASTERN SD AND WESTERN MN...BUT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED MUCH MORE SPARSE UP TO THIS POINT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF SMOKE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MIGHT MAKE FOR A COLORFUL SUNSET
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE IN WESTERN MN WHO ARE CLOSER TO
THE EDGE OF THE SMOKE. THE SMOKE IS BEING ADVECTED SOUTH FROM
WILDFIRES IN CANADA...MOST LIKELY FROM WHAT IS BURNING IN THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. SATELLITE SHOWED A THICK LAYER OF SMOKE IN
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN CONTINUES TO DRY FROM WHAT WAS PRESENT ON SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE
LAST COUPLE MPX SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN PWATS OF 1.25" AND 0.90"
RESPECTIVELY AND THE EARLY AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSES ARE HOVERING RIGHT
AROUND 0.75". THERE IS AN OBVIOUS REDUCTION IN SURFACE MOISTURE
TODAY...WITH DEWPOINTS COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S. NOT MUCH ELSE GOING
ON IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN FOR TOMORROW.
WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...MN/WI WILL BE OUT OF THE BEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
A RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN INTO THAT ALL TOO
FAMILIAR CONFIGURATION WE/VE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE PAST 9 MONTHS.
FOR US THAT MEANS AFTER SOME BRIEF MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK WE/LL SEE THINGS COOL OFF
SUBSTANTIALLY AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE
DETAILS... PCPN CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WARM
ADVECTION COMMENCES OVER THE AREA. IT THEN APPEARS WE/LL NEED TO
INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE TIME FRAME THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS IN THE AREA AND WE SEE
PERIODIC WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS OUR
AREA. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY
AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD BRING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER JET IS DISPLACED
SOUTHWARD... ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR COULD
CERTAINLY LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL PCPN IF WE HAVE SUFFICIENT CYCLONIC
FLOW AND EKMAN PUMPING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THINK FOG POTENTIAL IS LOW DUE TO DRIER AIR
MOVING IN. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE SMOKE INVADING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS MAY BRING MINOR REDUCTIONS
IN SFC VISIBILITY IF MIXING CAN REACH DEEP ENOUGH WEDNESDAY.
KMSP...NO MAJOR CONCERNS OTHER THAN STATED ABOVE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TS LATE. SSE WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
FRI...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTH
WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
SAT...VFR. SGT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. NORTH WIND 5 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1208 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE EAST AT ABOUT 20
KTS ACROSS MN TODAY...AND AT 3PM WAS IN THE PROCESS OF WORKING
ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES. MORNING CLOUDS SLOWED DOWN THE WARMING IN
THE TWIN CITIES...BUT THERE IS STILL HOPE FOR OUR FIRST 90 DEGREE
TEMP THIS YEAR AS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 2 HOUR WINDOW WHERE WE CAN
STILL WARM BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THE CAA KICKS IN. WE HAVE SEEN
PLACES LIKE REDWOOD FALLS...GLENCOE...AND NEW ULM HIT 90 IN THIS
ZONE AND IT WILL BE HITTING THE TWIN CITIES STILL DURING PEAK
HEATING BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM...SO DON/T GIVE UP HOPE ON THAT FIRST
90 JUST YET!
AS FOR STORM POTENTIAL...ACTIVITY OVER WI HAS BEEN ELEVATED...WITH
THE ATMO STILL CAPPED WITH RESPECT TO SFC BASED CONVECTION PER THE
STABLE CU FIELD /AT 230 PM/ STILL IN PLACE OVER WHAT IS A VERY JUICY
WARM SECTOR...WHERE DEWPS HAVE BEEN COMMONLY RISEN UP INTO THE MID
70S. STILL LOTS OF DISAGREEMENT WITH WHETHER OR NOT THIS FRONT WILL
EVEN GENERATE CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT...ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WRN MN AS EVIDENCED
BY DRYING ON WATER VAPOR BACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...PREFER THE IDEA
THE HRRR AND MEMBER1 OF THE 15Z HOPWRF SHOW WITH A SCT LINE OF
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AROUND 20Z AND QUICKLY SPREADING
EAST. THIS WOULD PLACE THE THUNDER THREAT MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
AN ALBERT LEA TO RICE LAKE LINE. SFC WINDS HAVE VEERED CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MINIMAL TORNADO THREAT...BUT
2K-4K J/KG OF MLCAPE...H7-H5 LAPSE RATES UP OVER 7 DEG C/KM...AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
WIND/HAIL THREAT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE IOWA BORDER WHERE
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE BETTER.
WILL SEE SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...BUT CONSISTENT NW WINDS WILL
BRING IN DEWPS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FOG
POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NRN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP INTO NODAK TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NODAK THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY SEND
SHOWERS/STORMS TOWARD CENTRAL MN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MORE ROBUST STORM COVERAGE OVER THE MPX CWA IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT STRONG SASKATCHEWAN WAVE
MOVES INTO WRN MN. FOR THIS WAVE...PREFERRED A GEM/ECMWF/GFS BLEND
FOR ITS TIMING. THE NAM IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH THE
WAVE...PLACING IT OVER ERN MN BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AS
OPPOSED TO WRN MN AS THE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING BASED ON THEIR QPF
FIELDS...BUT THE CAMS SHOW ACTIVITY BEING NOTICEABLY MORE SCATTERED
OVER MN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THERE
REALLY IS NO STRONG SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO THE CAMS ARE SIMPLY GENERATING CONVECTION WHERE THEY
CAN DEVELOP ENOUGH INSTABILITY.
THOUGH NW FLOW IS EXPECTED...1.5-2.5K J/KG OF MLCAPE COMBINED WITH
50-60 KTS OF BULK SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SEVERE
THREAT. HODOGRAPHS FOR MONDAY ARE MOSTLY LONG STRAIGHT
LINES...INDICATING THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL FROM
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. IF ENOUGH STORMS CAN INITIATE...WE WOULD
LIKELY END UP WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS OR TWO THAT WOULD HAVE A WIND
TREAT AS WELL. HIGHER LCLS /DUE TO THE DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
EXPECTED/ ALONG WITH THE SHEAR BEING MAINLY OF THE SPEED VARIETY
/WITH LITTLE DIRECTION CHANGE/ WILL GREATLY LIMIT ANY TORNADO
THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
WHILE THE BEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 21-00Z
IN WESTERN MN...EASTERN MN WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT THUNDER
BETWEEN 00-03Z...AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER IN WESTERN WI. THE MID-
LEVEL DRYING ARRIVES QUICKLY BETWEEN 03-06Z IN THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...SO THE PRECIP SHOULD GET QUICKLY SHUFFLED OFF TO
THE EAST LATE TOMORROW EVENING.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING INTO THE PLAINS AND
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
BREEZY...OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FLATTENS AS IT
SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER WITH RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING IN WESTERN MN IN THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL IMPROVE A FEW DEGREES. THE EAST WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF
AN 850MN COLD POCKET CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MODEL
CONSISTENCY ISN`T AS GOOD LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WEAK WAVES TO TRACK
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES REMAIN TOO DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT WITH EACH MODEL SHOWING SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
TIMING AND LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT - DID NOT REALLY ALTER THE POPS
MUCH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMATE NORMALS DURING THE PERIOD.
AFTER MONDAY...THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL PROBABILITY FOR PRECIP ARRIVES
ON THURSDAY WHEN THE FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE W-SW AND WARM
ADVECTION ARRIVES FROM THE DAKOTAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOSTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BOUTS OF
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SKC IS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. A LEADING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING
SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA TOWARD DAWN...WITH ACTIVITY
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A LOT OF THE
HI RES MODELS KEEP THE TSRA SCATTERED WHICH MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST TIMING AT ANY GIVEN TAF LOCATION. WHILE IT IS LIKELY ALL
TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY AT SOME POINT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON MORE PRECISE DETAILS
AT THIS TIME.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF INSTANCES OF IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA. KEPT MOST
OF THE PERIOD DRY UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INCREASES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 TO 20 KT.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5 TO 15 KT.
THU...VFR. CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT. WIND S 10 TO 15 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1145 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 917 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
Watching the convection to our north along the approaching cold
front this evening. Model guidance in general agreement that the
front will reach Quincy area between 06Z and 09Z and settle across
the St. Louis area between 12Z and 15Z. Have better confidence
that broken line of thunderstorms will reach northern parts of the
CWA and have increased POPs to match with neighboring offices.
Oherwise, chance/scattered POPs should cover the situation further
south toward St. Louis.
CVKING
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
Still expect thunderstorms to redevelop along the cold front
where MLCAPES are 5000+ J/kg across Iowa. These storms should move
southeast into the northern half of the CWA during the late
evening and overnight hours as both the NAM/GFS are in good
agreement that shortwave trough currently over the upper Midwest
will move in sync with the cold front across the CWA tonight.
Latest runs of HRRR are showing that storms will dissipate before
reaching the CWA, but the amount of forcing and instability
warrant keeping at least the chance pops already going in the
forecast. The simulated reflectivity of the explicit runs of the
WRF show a line of storms moving southward across the entire CWA
between 02-08Z. Also can`t rule out a few severe thunderstorms
later this evening given the amount of instability and deep layer
shear forecast to be around 30kts.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
(Monday and Tuesday)
Main concern will be the potential for a few severe thunderstorms on
Monday afternoon and night.
GFS and NAM both show that upper flow will be west northwesterly on
Monday with the front becoming stalled by midday across the central
part of the CWA. Temperatures in the lower to middle 90s and
dewpoints in the 70s will cause the atmosphere to become very
unstable under 7+C/km mid level lapse rates. Scattered
thunderstorms may develop along the front as the CINH erodes during
the day. Couldn`t rule out that any storms that develop Monday
afternoon would be severe because of the amount of the instability.
Thunderstorms will be more likely on Monday night when a shortwave
trough moves southeast through the upper flow. A complex of
thunderstorms will likely move southeast through the area along the
front. This complex may be severe given deep layer sheer 40+ kts
and produce locally heavy rainfall rates given precipitable waters
over 2 inches. Damaging winds appear to be the primary
threat...though large hail and isolated tornadoes are also
possible.
By Tuesday the cold front will still be over the south part of the
CWA during the early afternoon hours. There may still be some
chance for a few severe thunderstorms along the front as they
initiate before the it moves south of the CWA by 00Z.
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
GFS and ECMWF still show that the cold front will extend from the
Mid South back into the central Plains Wednesday and Thursday
leaving us dry. 850mb temps are progged to be in the 12-16C range
with southeasterly winds from the retreating surface high which will
bring us below normal temperatures. The front will begin to move
north as a warm front Friday into Saturday which will increase
temperatures and thunderstorm chances. The GFS and ECMWF both show
a cold front dropping southeastward in northwest flow by next
Sunday, so will keep the chance of rain going into the latter half
of next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
Activity fired up ahead of cold front over Iowa and is tracking
southeast towards forecast area as of 04z Monday. It is falling
apart and timing/coverage is still hard to pin down, so kept vicinity
thunderstorm mention at KUIN with vicinity shower mention for rest
of taf sites. Otherwise, south to southwest winds to veer to the
west with frontal passage. Front to move through KUIN by 12z
Monday, KCOU by 13z Monday and metro area by 14z Monday. Then
front will stall out along I-70 corridor with activity refiring
along it by late this afternoon and into the evening hours. Once
again timing and coverage hard to pin down so just kept vicinity
thunderstorm mention for now. With front stalled out overhead,
winds to keep switching back and forth from west to southwest
until front is finally pushed further south.
Specifics for KSTL:
Activity fired up ahead of cold front over Iowa and is tracking
southeast towards forecast area as of 04z Monday. It is falling
apart and timing/coverage is still hard to pin down, so kept vicinity
shower mention for metro area after 09z Monday. Otherwise, south to
southwest winds to veer to the west with frontal passage. Front to
move through metro area by 14z Monday. Then front will stall out
along I-70 corridor with activity refiring along it by 00z Tuesday.
Once again timing and coverage hard to pin down so just kept
vicinity thunderstorm mention for now. With front stalled out
overhead, winds to keep switching back and forth from west to
southwest until front is finally pushed further south, after 08z
Tuesday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
905 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2014
.UPDATE...
Current satellite imagery and regional webcams show mix of clear
to partly cloudy skies this evening as pockets of moisture move
through the high pressure ridge covering the western states. Of
note, water vapor satellite imagery indicates that a displaced band
of the monsoonal moisture plume expected to arrive tomorrow has
already made it into east-central Idaho and produced a few light
showers near Monida Pass around 8pm. The Rapid Update Cycle (RUC)
forecast model has been the only model to pick up on this feature at
this point in time, with other models showing dry conditions from
central Idaho northward. But even the RUC paints only a minimal
chance of additional light and spotty showers along the ID/MT border
thru the overnight hours, so will continue with a dry forecast for
tonight across the region.
Main portion of the monsoonal plume currently extends from central
NV to northern OR and is beginning to show a turn to east in
response to high pressure ridge axis slowly drifting into western
MT. Forecast still on track for the main plume to move into
southwest MT tomorrow aftn and portions of central MT tomorrow
evening, bringing isolated thunderstorms with generally less than
0.1 inch of precipitation where rainfall occurs.
Waranauskas
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...High pressure will remain over Central
Montana into Wednesday when monsoonal moisture will sneak into the
region from the southwest. This increased moisture should be
enough to allow afternoon thunderstorms to develop over Southwest
Montana Wednesday afternoon. Things look to quiet down again on
Thursday with only an isolated chance of a shower over Southwest
Montana. Temperatures will largely remain unchanged day to day
with mid to upper 80s, and some 90s, across much of the region.
Winds look to remain light overall with some breeziness across the
plains Wednesday and Thursday.
Thursday night through Tuesday...Overall an upper level ridge of
high pressure will continue to reside over the Pacific Northwest
through the period. The upper level ridge will try to flatten a bit
at times...or retrograde a bit westward...however the main impact
weather-wise for our region will be warm temperatures and the chance
for a passing thunderstorm. For precipitation...confidence is
quite low in timing and amounts of any precipitation during the
extended period...thus generally kept isolated to scattered
thunderstorms over the region. Brusda
Some temperature discrepancies arise in the Monday-Tuesday time
period between the GFS and EC. Both models indicate a highly
amplified ridge persisting over the Western U.S. and Western Canada.
The EC forecasts a deeper and larger-scale upper level low
forming in the Hudson Bay and Great Lakes region...large enough to
bring cooler air into eastern and central Montana via E/NE winds.
1000-500mb thicknesses peak around 582 dm on Sunday and Monday per
the GFS with EC values around 576 dm. 850 temps on the GFS are in
the mid to upper 20s C through Monday while the EC is approximately
5 C cooler.
By Tuesday...thickness values drop to near 573 dm on the GFS and to
567-570 on the EC. Both models show a 850 mb temp drop to near 20
C. Given the lower confidence went with a blended approach on
Tuesday with highs in the low 80s. The slight cool down will likely
be short lived with model guidance pushing the mid level ridge axis
eastward into the middle/end of next week. Uttech
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2325z.
VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period with relatively
light winds and mostly clear skies. Some mid and high level clouds
and a bit stronger winds are expected by Tuesday afternoon. db
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 57 91 59 89 / 0 0 20 0
CTB 55 89 55 83 / 0 0 20 10
HLN 60 93 61 93 / 0 10 20 0
BZN 53 90 55 90 / 0 20 20 10
WEY 44 82 45 81 / 0 40 30 30
DLN 57 87 55 88 / 0 30 20 20
HVR 54 93 60 88 / 0 0 20 10
LWT 55 88 59 87 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1136 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEVADA WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO SWRN CANADA. A
SECONDARY HIGH WAS OVER NERN ALASKA WITH A SHARPER AMPLITUDE RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A TANDEM
OF DECENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WERE PRESENT FROM NORTHERN
ALBERTA INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA. DOWNSTREAM OF THESE SHORTWAVES...50+
METER HT FALLS WERE NOTED OVER NRN MN...SWRN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. ANOTHER AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS NOTED OVER THE
OZARKS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD PASSED THROUGH
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF NOONTIME AND WAS ORIENTED
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR FORT MORGAN COLORADO...TO MCCOOK TO SIOUX
CITY IA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT...RANGED FROM 86 AT VALENTINE
TO 95 AT IMPERIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT OVER NEBRASKA HAS PASSED THROUGH ALL OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT REMAIN IN THE
60S...WITH SB CAPE OF 2K J/KG OR HIGHER FROM ABOUT KOGA TO KBBW AND
AREAS TO THE SOUTH...LAPS SOUNDINGS AND SPC/S MESOANALYSIS PAGE
SUGGEST A SLIGHT CAP REMAINS IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
CAP AND A LACK OF FORCING TO HELP GET ANY ACTIVITY GOING DON/T
EXPECT ANY STORMS LOCALLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF THE FRONT CIN HAS
DIMINISHED SO COULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS. DON/T EXPECT
THE FRONT TO LIFT NORTH SO HAVE NOT RE-INTRODUCED ANY CHANCES TO THE
AREA THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT.
LATER TONIGHT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM...GFS AND TO A POINT
THE RAP SHOW A VERY WEAK PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE SAME AREA WILL SEE POOLING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S AND THERE IS SUGGESTION
OF A BIT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ROUGHLY IN THE
VICINITY OF A LINE FROM KBBW TO KEAR AND KHGI. CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH
ON ANY OF THIS CONVECTION OCCURRING...NOR HAVING IT OCCUR IN THE
FORECAST AREA BUT FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH SIGNALS TO AT LEAST WARRANT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THEN...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NORTH OF MONTANA WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND APPROACH NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA IN THE MORNING.
WITH THE RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT...WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD
1-2K J/KG OF SB CAPE IN THE MORNING AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASING WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING IN CAN/T DISCOUNT A FEW STORMS
GAINING STRENGTH TO BE A STRONGER STORM. AT THIS TIME DON/T FORESEE
ANY SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS AND THEN
FOCUSES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS WHERE THE FRONT
FROM TODAY WILL REMAIN. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT
THIS POINT...CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL HAVE INCREASED A BIT SO
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE. STILL NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOCALLY AS THE PRIMARY
CONVERGENCE AREA LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ORIENTED SOUTH OVER THE FRONT. OVER THESE
AREAS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGH ONCE AGAIN...AT 120 TO
140 PERCENT OF NORMAL. HIGH WATER CONTENT...ALONG WITH A WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED FRONT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT COULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL TRAINING STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN.
AGAIN...THINK THE HIGHER THREAT THOUGH WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THE MID RANGE ARE LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN MONDAY
NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO KANSAS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A THREAT FOR PCPN IN THE EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY EVENING...AS
DECENT MID LEVEL LIFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS AREA IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE FORECAST AREA PER THE GFS SOLN
COMPARED TO THE NAM SOLN AS THE SURFACE FRONT IS FURTHER NORTH
COMPARED TO THE NAM SOLN. THIS PROBABLY HAS TO DO WITH THE STRENGTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH THE NAM IS STRONGER WITH
COMPARED TO THE GFS SOLN. INHERITED FCST HAD CHANCE POPS LINGERING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. POPS WERE LOWERED MONDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THE FASTER NAM SOLN...AS WELL AS MID LEVEL LIFT SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AS FOR THE THREAT FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...THE
BEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE EAST AND SERN
CWA WHERE SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE STRONG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELEMENTS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE IN THE EAST AND
SERN CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AS
WELL...ELIMINATING THE THREAT FOR PCPN TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST WHICH WILL GIVE A
BOOST TO OVERNIGHT LOWS WEST OF NORTH PLATTE. ANY PCPN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS...WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY. RIDGING ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB AND WILL APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TSRAS WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS SE FROM THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS INVOF THE BLACK
HILLS WEDS AFTN. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ANY STORMS WHICH
INITIATE MAY PUSH INTO THE NWRN CWA WEDS AFTN/EVENING. WILL KEEP
POPS ISOLATED FOR NOW AS MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND NWRN CWA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS USUALLY ALLOWS
A PLETHORA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE.
TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...SO
WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH PLENTY OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...SO
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT THE THE THREAT FOR STORMS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...UNDERCUT THE
LATEST MEX GUIDANCE AS IT CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM COMPARED TO THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS...AS WELL AS THE ECMX EURO GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS MT/ND MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPING FROM 15Z ONWARD...MAINLY ALONG
HIGHWAY 20 AND AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. TSTM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FCST AREA 03Z-06Z MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
224 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A DRY WEEKEND...THE WEATHER IS ABOUT TO BECOME MORE
UNSETTLED. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SPRINKLES FELL APART ON THEIR WAY IN AS
EXPECTED...MAINLY JUST VIRGA. GRIDS TWEAKED TO KEEP UP WITH CLOUD
DECK ETC. OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE CHANCE FROM THE UPDATE DONE
EARLIER.
530 PM UPDATE...
AMPED SKY GRIDS UP TO ACCOUNT FOR THICKER-THAN-EXPECTED WING OF
CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TWIN TIERS AT THIS TIME.
INITIAL NORTHEASTERN PORTION SHOWS UP IN RUC13 RH FIELDS AROUND
500MB. THEN REMAINDER OF THICKER CLOUD SHIELD NOW SPREADING FROM
WESTERN TO CENTRAL PA...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NEPA AND PERHAPS SOME
OF THE NY/PA BORDER ZONES LATER THIS EVENING AS PER 700MB RH FIELD
OF THE RUC13. VIRGA IS ALSO SHOWING UP ON OUR RADAR
CURRENTLY...YET LOW LEVELS ARE MUCH TOO DRY FOR IT TO REACH THE
GROUND...AT LEAST INITIALLY. WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
INBOUND...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES INCLUDING
BRADFORD PA...THE CITY NOT THE COUNTY. I DO NOT SEE THAT GETTING
MUCH PAST THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INCLUDING THE WIND FARMS OF
BRADFORD PA...THE COUNTY NOT THE CITY...AND PERHAPS NEAR RICKETTS
GLEN...AS IT ENCOUNTERS MINOR DOWNSLOPING ANYWHERE BEYOND THAT AS
WELL AS CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MENTION OF SPRINKLES HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AROUND THOSE AREAS...OTHERWISE LOOKING TOTALLY DRY /AND
EVEN FOR THOSE LOCATIONS GETTING A SPRINKLE...OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE/.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK FROM OHIO ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING. SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA... ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PA... BUT THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE TOO
DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE NOW BLOWING UP CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM IN
UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THAT WAVE GETS
HERE...BUT 18Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM HAVE IT SOMEWHERE AROUND FINGER
LAKES 12Z-15Z. THE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT MAKES THE FORECAST CHALLENGING FOR DETAILS OF
EVOLUTION FOR CONVECTION MONDAY. OVERALL...A SCENARIO WITH MODEST
CAPE BUT GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR. OUR LOCAL ANALOG TOOL COMPARING
FORECAST CONDITIONS TO PAST EVENTS...RETURNS CASES FEATURING
PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LITTLE HAIL /UNDERSTANDABLE GIVEN
THE NARROWER LOOK TO THE CAPE IN THE SOUNDINGS/. HOWEVER...ALSO A
COUPLE ISOLATED SUPERCELL-WEAK TORNADO CASES. THERE IS SOME
TURNING IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE NAM SOUNDING...AND
NOTABLY...0-1 KM HELICITY INCREASES TO OVER 150 M2/S2 BY MONDAY
EVENING...A THRESHOLD THAT LOCALLY HAS SHOWN TO BE IMPORTANT IN
PAST CASES. SPC MAINTAINS MOST OF OUR AREA AS SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
MONDAY...AND MENTIONS THAT ANY MORE RIGHTWARD MOVING INDIVIDUAL
CELLS COULD GAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...WHICH MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE ABOVE ENVIRONMENT. WITH THAT WOULD COME ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO.
FORECAST UPDATED TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF MAIN CONVECTION BY A
FEW HOURS...WHILE ALSO ADDING MENTION OF STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND
EASTERN CANADA. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY... SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RAPID INCREASE
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MID 60S DEW POINTS BY AFTERNOON. THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE MONDAY WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN THE INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY
UPSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN... HOWEVER AT THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING
AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE WHICH WOULD ALLOW CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. 0-3 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-35 KTS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ORGANIZED LINES OF CONVECTION WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. BASED ON
THIS WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL IN THE
HWO. PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND
2.0 INCHES SO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
AND WE ARE GOING WITH POPS AROUND 70 PERCENT FROM AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
AFTER A LULL MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT ONCE AGAIN THAT CAPE VALUES WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ONCE AGAIN
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST AS LARGE ON TUESDAY AS MONDAY AND ONCE AGAIN
THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THESE
STORMS INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
THE MAIN SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWERING DEW POINTS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ONLY
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A FEW SHOWERS
MAY YET DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT POPS WILL BE LOWER THAN
MONDAY OR TUESDAY AND THE SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE
LOWER DUE TO LOWER DEW POINTS AND LESS INSTABILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. DRY FRIDAY AND PROBABLY
SATURDAY THEN BACK TO CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL.
230 PM SUN UPDATE...
ON THE LARGE-SCALE...WRN CONUS/WRN CANADIAN RIDGING AND A L/WV
TROUGH FROM HUDSON`S BAY SWD OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL SET THE PATN
THIS PD. HOW AMPLIFIED THIS CONFIGURATION IS...THOUGH WILL VARY
OVER TIME. IN GENERAL...THIS TRANSLATES TO AN ABSENCE OF ANY TRULY
HOT WX (HIGHS FROM THE 70S-MID 80S)...WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
ROLLING THROUGH ABT EVERY 2-3 DAYS.
AS FOR THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX...LINGERING SHWRS/TSTMS ARE PSBL AT
THE START OF THE PD WED NGT-THU...AS A NRN STREAM S/WV AND SFC
COLD FRNT SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST. FRI THROUGH MOST OF SAT
LOOK RAIN-FREE AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE PT...WITH THE ERN TROUGH
TEMPORARILY RELAXING. FOR THE LATTER PTN OF NEXT WEEKEND...SHWRS
AND TSTMS MAY WELL RETURN...AS A RELOADING OF THE L/WV TROUGH AXIS
UPSTREAM HERALDS THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT S/WV...ALG WITH A SFC
WARM FRNT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH SCT TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME INITIAL SCT
-SHRA MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING BUT NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE RESTRICTIONS.
PROB30 CB GROUPS AT THE MORE PROBABLE TIMES OF CONVECTION FOR THE
TERMINALS...EARLIEST NORTH /KSYR-KRME/ AND LATEST SOUTH /KAVP/.
ANY TERMINALS TAKING DIRECT HIT FROM CELLS MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD
EXPERIENCE STRONG GUSTS.
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING S TO SW AT 5 KTS OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
TODAY SW WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH AFTN GUSTS TO 20. TONIGHT SW WINDS AT
4 TO 8 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT THROUGH THU...VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME...BUT RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA ESPECIALLY AFTN-EVE HRS TUE-WED.
FRI...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/MSE
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MDP/MSE
LONG TERM...MLJ/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
627 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION...WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT THEN
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO NORTH CAROLINA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST 100MB JUST ABOVE 1500J/KG...
EXTENDING TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. THERE...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HAD INCREASED...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED JUST WEST
OF STANLY COUNTY AT 1830Z. THE LATEST HRRR WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO MAKE
IT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO SLIGHTLY MORE DRIER AND STABLE AIR OVERALL.
HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM IN THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND WILL ALSO RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD
SOUTHERN SAMPSON COUNTY BASED UPON THE NEARBY MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE MIXING RATIO ON THE LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM SHOULD DIMINISH DIURNALLY
AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE LARGELY STABLE
OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
SREF PROBABILITIES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE LOW OR DO NOT REGISTER
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE 850MB THETA-E VALUES INCREASE SOME
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE PREVAILING WIND REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...SOME LOW CLOUD ADVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...
EXTRAPOLATED NORTHEAST FROM WHERE THE HRRR WRF DENOTES LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUCH DEVELOPMENT MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SOME OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER PART OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NOTICEABLE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS OFF OF
THE SURFACE REMAIN IN THE 20S KNOTS IN THE MAIN. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF
THIS MONDAY MORNING...FOR LOWS MAINLY 67 TO 72 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
THE INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E ACTUALLY MOVES EAST DURING TUESDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT THERE IS A RELATIVE
MINIMUM OF MOISTURE FORECAST ON K INDICES AND 850MB THETA-E OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 18Z TUESDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS ARE DEFINITELY CAPPED
TO DEEP CONVECTION ON TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS HAVE MINIMAL POPS AND NO QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
BETWEEN 12Z TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. WRF GUIDANCE IS LARGELY DRY
AS WELL...EVEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE A LITTLE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
ALOFT SHARPENS SOME TO OUR WEST. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE EFFECTS OF
THIS WITH SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AS THE 850MB
AND 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 30KT TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
COMBINATION OF SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD
LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF ABOUT KIXA TO KMEB TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BUFR SOUNDINGS BECOME MORE MOIST ALOFT TUESDAY
NIGHT TOWARD KRDU AND KGSO...WHILE THEY REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE
TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S...THOUGH
WITH SOME DEW POINT MIXING DURING THE DAY AIDED BY SOME SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT AND A DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER AS FORECAST BY
BUFR SOUNDINGS...HEAT INDICES SHOULD NOT BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
ACTUAL HIGHS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME MODEST MIXING...THE 25 TO 30KT
925MB WINDS...AND AN INCREASE IN AT LEAST HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS...
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON
AVERAGE THAN THOSE EXPECTED TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT 69 TO 73.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
FOR WED THROUGH THU NIGHT: STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL ARRIVE IN THIS TIME WINDOW... PEAKING ON THU. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC... WHILE ALOFT... BROAD TROUGHING SETTING
UP JUST TO OUR WEST WILL DRAW IN NRN STREAM ENERGY AS WELL AS PULL
IN PERTURBATIONS FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE TROUGH
ITSELF WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK AT THIS LATITUDE WITH MINIMAL HEIGHT
FALLS (10-20 M AT MOST) AND MLLR VALUES UNDER 6.5 C/KM... THE ADDED
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION (MAXIMIZING IN -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING) DESPITE MARGINAL VALUES OF BOTH INSTABILITY
(MLCAPE TOPPING OUT AT 500-800 J/KG WED AND 600-1000 J/KG IN THE
EAST THU) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR (UNDER 20 KTS IN THE SE CWA BUT BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE OVER NRN AND WRN NC AT 25-30 KTS). PW VALUES ARE
PROJECTED TO RISE ABOVE 1.8 IN (AND EVEN APPROACH 2.0 IN IN SOME
SPOTS) ON WED AND PERSIST THROUGH THU... AND ACCORDING TO BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS MOISTENING INCLUDES THE MIXED-PHASE -10C TO -
30C LAYER IMPORTANT FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE WED... THEN
SHIFT THE BEST POP FOCUS (40-50%) TO THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS (AND THE BULK OF ITS NRN STREAM
ENERGY) EASES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION WHILE DAMPENING. GIVEN
THAT THE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE IDEALLY
SPATIALLY ALIGNED WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY... WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE. BUT ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE... AND THE LOW MBE TRANSLATIONAL SPEED
AND ABOVE-NORMAL PW SUGGEST THAT SOME TRAINING CELLS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THE DAMPENING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP THE WEAKENING SYNOPTIC FRONT AND ITS COOLER AIR TO OUR NNW...
SO EXPECT THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
NC... BUT WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WED 89 NW TO 96 SE. HIGHS
THU CLOSER TO NORMAL... 88-92... WITH NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES AND
PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER. MUGGY LOWS WED NIGHT 67-74.
FOR FRI-MON: ANOTHER STORMY DAY FRI. AS THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS QUICKLY TO OUR NORTH... THE QUICKLY DYING PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL NC FRI BEFORE NEARLY DISAPPEARING BY
SAT MORNING. WE`LL SEE A DRYING COLUMN FROM THE NW WITH NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHTLY POSITIVE HEIGHT TENDENCIES AND SUBPAR DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
15-20 KTS... BUT WITH PW REMAINING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SE
CWA AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AS WELL AS MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG... WILL NEED TO RETAIN
GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THE SE FRI... WITH A BIT LOWER POPS OVER THE
REST OF THE CWA... AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. (NORMAL
HIGH/LOW FOR THIS TIME FRAME IS 90/70 IN RALEIGH AND 88/69 IN
GREENSBORO.) THE HIGHER PW AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST SAT AND PW
REMAINS AT OR BELOW 1.5 IN INTO SUN MORNING BEFORE RISING AGAIN SUN
AFTERNOON... WITH VERY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. BELIEVE WE`LL SEE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS SAT... FOCUSED ON SUBTLE
BOUNDARIES... TRENDING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER POPS SUN AS THE PW
RECOVERS. THE 00Z/07 ECMWF SHOWS A STRENGTHENING VORTEX OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR SUN INTO MON... STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN OR THE GFS. WHILE THIS CAN PROBABLY BE SET ASIDE AS A
TOO-FAR-SOUTH SOLUTION... THE 12Z/07 ECMWF WAS VERY SIMILAR IN THIS
RESPECT TO ITS 00Z RUN. REGARDLESS... IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A
SOUTHWARD NUDGE OF THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TOWARD
NC... AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE IMPROVING MOISTURE AND UPWARD TREND
OF LATE-DAY MUCAPE TO 1000-2000 J/KG SUN AND 1500-2500 J/KG MON...
WILL RESUME A PATTERN OF TYPICAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
WITH BETTER COVERAGE FROM THE TRIANGLE/WADESBORO TO THE EAST.
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND UPWARD DURING THIS PERIOD... SO
WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL BY MON. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS
ASSOC/W STRATUS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...THOUGH PRIMARILY AT THE
FAY TERMINAL BETWEEN 09-12Z TUE. A S/SW BREEZE AT 4-8 KT OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME BREEZE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST AT 12-14 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD SHOWERS/
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING...
PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH WED MORNING. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE WEEK
(WED-FRI) IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR
OVER THE REGION ON THU/FRI. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
304 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION...WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT THEN
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO NORTH CAROLINA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST 100MB JUST ABOVE 1500J/KG...
EXTENDING TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. THERE...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HAD INCREASED...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED JUST WEST
OF STANLY COUNTY AT 1830Z. THE LATEST HRRR WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO MAKE
IT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO SLIGHTLY MORE DRIER AND STABLE AIR OVERALL.
HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM IN THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND WILL ALSO RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD
SOUTHERN SAMPSON COUNTY BASED UPON THE NEARBY MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE MIXING RATIO ON THE LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM SHOULD DIMINISH DIURNALLY
AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE LARGELY STABLE
OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
SREF PROBABILITIES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE LOW OR DO NOT REGISTER
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE 850MB THETA-E VALUES INCREASE SOME
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE PREVAILING WIND REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...SOME LOW CLOUD ADVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...
EXTRAPOLATED NORTHEAST FROM WHERE THE HRRR WRF DENOTES LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUCH DEVELOPMENT MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SOME OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER PART OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NOTICEABLE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS OFF OF
THE SURFACE REMAIN IN THE 20S KNOTS IN THE MAIN. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF
THIS MONDAY MORNING...FOR LOWS MAINLY 67 TO 72 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
THE INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E ACTUALLY MOVES EAST DURING TUESDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT THERE IS A RELATIVE
MINIMUM OF MOISTURE FORECAST ON K INDICES AND 850MB THETA-E OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 18Z TUESDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS ARE DEFINITELY CAPPED
TO DEEP CONVECTION ON TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS HAVE MINIMAL POPS AND NO QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
BETWEEN 12Z TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. WRF GUIDANCE IS LARGELY DRY
AS WELL...EVEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE A LITTLE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
ALOFT SHARPENS SOME TO OUR WEST. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE EFFECTS OF
THIS WITH SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AS THE 850MB
AND 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 30KT TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
COMBINATION OF SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD
LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF ABOUT KIXA TO KMEB TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BUFR SOUNDINGS BECOME MORE MOIST ALOFT TUESDAY
NIGHT TOWARD KRDU AND KGSO...WHILE THEY REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE
TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S...THOUGH
WITH SOME DEW POINT MIXING DURING THE DAY AIDED BY SOME SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT AND A DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER AS FORECAST BY
BUFR SOUNDINGS...HEAT INDICES SHOULD NOT BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
ACTUAL HIGHS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME MODEST MIXING...THE 25 TO 30KT
925MB WINDS...AND AN INCREASE IN AT LEAST HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS...
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON
AVERAGE THAN THOSE EXPECTED TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT 69 TO 73.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
FOR WED THROUGH THU NIGHT: STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL ARRIVE IN THIS TIME WINDOW... PEAKING ON THU. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC... WHILE ALOFT... BROAD TROUGHING SETTING
UP JUST TO OUR WEST WILL DRAW IN NRN STREAM ENERGY AS WELL AS PULL
IN PERTURBATIONS FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE TROUGH
ITSELF WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK AT THIS LATITUDE WITH MINIMAL HEIGHT
FALLS (10-20 M AT MOST) AND MLLR VALUES UNDER 6.5 C/KM... THE ADDED
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION (MAXIMIZING IN -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING) DESPITE MARGINAL VALUES OF BOTH INSTABILITY
(MLCAPE TOPPING OUT AT 500-800 J/KG WED AND 600-1000 J/KG IN THE
EAST THU) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR (UNDER 20 KTS IN THE SE CWA BUT BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE OVER NRN AND WRN NC AT 25-30 KTS). PW VALUES ARE
PROJECTED TO RISE ABOVE 1.8 IN (AND EVEN APPROACH 2.0 IN IN SOME
SPOTS) ON WED AND PERSIST THROUGH THU... AND ACCORDING TO BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS MOISTENING INCLUDES THE MIXED-PHASE -10C TO -
30C LAYER IMPORTANT FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE WED... THEN
SHIFT THE BEST POP FOCUS (40-50%) TO THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS (AND THE BULK OF ITS NRN STREAM
ENERGY) EASES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION WHILE DAMPENING. GIVEN
THAT THE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE IDEALLY
SPATIALLY ALIGNED WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY... WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE. BUT ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE... AND THE LOW MBE TRANSLATIONAL SPEED
AND ABOVE-NORMAL PW SUGGEST THAT SOME TRAINING CELLS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THE DAMPENING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP THE WEAKENING SYNOPTIC FRONT AND ITS COOLER AIR TO OUR NNW...
SO EXPECT THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
NC... BUT WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WED 89 NW TO 96 SE. HIGHS
THU CLOSER TO NORMAL... 88-92... WITH NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES AND
PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER. MUGGY LOWS WED NIGHT 67-74.
FOR FRI-MON: ANOTHER STORMY DAY FRI. AS THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS QUICKLY TO OUR NORTH... THE QUICKLY DYING PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL NC FRI BEFORE NEARLY DISAPPEARING BY
SAT MORNING. WE`LL SEE A DRYING COLUMN FROM THE NW WITH NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHTLY POSITIVE HEIGHT TENDENCIES AND SUBPAR DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
15-20 KTS... BUT WITH PW REMAINING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SE
CWA AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AS WELL AS MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG... WILL NEED TO RETAIN
GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THE SE FRI... WITH A BIT LOWER POPS OVER THE
REST OF THE CWA... AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. (NORMAL
HIGH/LOW FOR THIS TIME FRAME IS 90/70 IN RALEIGH AND 88/69 IN
GREENSBORO.) THE HIGHER PW AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST SAT AND PW
REMAINS AT OR BELOW 1.5 IN INTO SUN MORNING BEFORE RISING AGAIN SUN
AFTERNOON... WITH VERY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. BELIEVE WE`LL SEE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS SAT... FOCUSED ON SUBTLE
BOUNDARIES... TRENDING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER POPS SUN AS THE PW
RECOVERS. THE 00Z/07 ECMWF SHOWS A STRENGTHENING VORTEX OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR SUN INTO MON... STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN OR THE GFS. WHILE THIS CAN PROBABLY BE SET ASIDE AS A
TOO-FAR-SOUTH SOLUTION... THE 12Z/07 ECMWF WAS VERY SIMILAR IN THIS
RESPECT TO ITS 00Z RUN. REGARDLESS... IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A
SOUTHWARD NUDGE OF THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TOWARD
NC... AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE IMPROVING MOISTURE AND UPWARD TREND
OF LATE-DAY MUCAPE TO 1000-2000 J/KG SUN AND 1500-2500 J/KG MON...
WILL RESUME A PATTERN OF TYPICAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
WITH BETTER COVERAGE FROM THE TRIANGLE/WADESBORO TO THE EAST.
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND UPWARD DURING THIS PERIOD... SO
WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL BY MON. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR MUCH OF
THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS
IN THE TEENS KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WHILE STAYING NEAR
20 TO 25KT AROUND 2000FT OVERNIGHT...THEN THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 20KT. THE
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE
THAN LIGHT FOG...EXTRAPOLATION OF THE HRRR WRF MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT TOWARD
KFAY...AND THE TAF FOR KFAY HAS A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THERE
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND WEST LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH THEIR ACCOMPANYING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS MOISTURE AND...AGAIN...THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND A DECREASED CHANCE
FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION...WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT THEN
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO NORTH CAROLINA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST 100MB JUST ABOVE 1500J/KG...
EXTENDING TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. THERE...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HAD INCREASED...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED JUST WEST
OF STANLY COUNTY AT 1830Z. THE LATEST HRRR WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO MAKE
IT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO SLIGHTLY MORE DRIER AND STABLE AIR OVERALL.
HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM IN THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND WILL ALSO RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD
SOUTHERN SAMPSON COUNTY BASED UPON THE NEARBY MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE MIXING RATIO ON THE LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM SHOULD DIMINISH DIURNALLY
AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE LARGELY STABLE
OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
SREF PROBABILITIES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE LOW OR DO NOT REGISTER
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE 850MB THETA-E VALUES INCREASE SOME
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE PREVAILING WIND REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...SOME LOW CLOUD ADVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...
EXTRAPOLATED NORTHEAST FROM WHERE THE HRRR WRF DENOTES LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUCH DEVELOPMENT MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SOME OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER PART OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NOTICEABLE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS OFF OF
THE SURFACE REMAIN IN THE 20S KNOTS IN THE MAIN. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF
THIS MONDAY MORNING...FOR LOWS MAINLY 67 TO 72 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
THE INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E ACTUALLY MOVES EAST DURING TUESDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT THERE IS A RELATIVE
MINIMUM OF MOISTURE FORECAST ON K INDICES AND 850MB THETA-E OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 18Z TUESDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS ARE DEFINITELY CAPPED
TO DEEP CONVECTION ON TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS HAVE MINIMAL POPS AND NO QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
BETWEEN 12Z TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. WRF GUIDANCE IS LARGELY DRY
AS WELL...EVEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE A LITTLE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
ALOFT SHARPENS SOME TO OUR WEST. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE EFFECTS OF
THIS WITH SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AS THE 850MB
AND 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 30KT TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
COMBINATION OF SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD
LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF ABOUT KIXA TO KMEB TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BUFR SOUNDINGS BECOME MORE MOIST ALOFT TUESDAY
NIGHT TOWARD KRDU AND KGSO...WHILE THEY REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE
TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S...THOUGH
WITH SOME DEW POINT MIXING DURING THE DAY AIDED BY SOME SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT AND A DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER AS FORECAST BY
BUFR SOUNDINGS...HEAT INDICES SHOULD NOT BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
ACTUAL HIGHS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME MODEST MIXING...THE 25 TO 30KT
925MB WINDS...AND AN INCREASE IN AT LEAST HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS...
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON
AVERAGE THAN THOSE EXPECTED TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT 69 TO 73.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE THE NEXT MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL
HELP TO SHARPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AND LEAD TO A
BETTER CHANCE OF LATE DAY/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT. THE LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING
A FAIRLY DEEP DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WITH THE EXPECTED LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. THUS... IF ANY STRONG CONVECTION IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA EXPECT WE WOULD HAVE A THREAT FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE IS A BIT MIXED ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION
WILL MAKE IT OUR AREA THOUGH. THUS... WILL ONLY RAISE POPS INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING... WITH MOST OF THE LINGERING CONVECTION
DYING OFF BY 06Z OR SO AT THE LATEST. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1420S TO 1430S. THUS... EXPECT
WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 90S... WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
90S IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... WHERE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND CLOUDS
WILL BE THE LEAST. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING... WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA... ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 NW TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE... WITH EVEN SOME
MID 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.... WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY CROSSING THE
REGION ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT. THIS
COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY PW`S CLIMBING TO
AROUND 2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...
WITH CHANCES EACH DAY PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE DEEP SHEAR INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 KT
RANGE. THUS... THIS COMBINED WITH POSSIBLY MODERATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG... POSSIBLY 2000 J/KG)... THINK WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST A SMALL SEVERE THREAT... AS WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME
MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY EACH DAY. GIVEN THE MOIST AND WARM ATMO...
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION.... GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL BE
A BIT COOLER WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND STORMS. THUS... WILL GO
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90/LOWER 90S. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY SATURDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
DRYING ALOFT AND RESULTANT MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. STILL THINK WE WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED TO MAYBE WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO AT LEAST THE 1420S. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE LOWER 90S... WITH
POSSIBLY SOME MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR MUCH OF
THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS
IN THE TEENS KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WHILE STAYING NEAR
20 TO 25KT AROUND 2000FT OVERNIGHT...THEN THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 20KT. THE
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE
THAN LIGHT FOG...EXTRAPOLATION OF THE HRRR WRF MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT TOWARD
KFAY...AND THE TAF FOR KFAY HAS A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THERE
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND WEST LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH THEIR ACCOMPANYING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS MOISTURE AND...AGAIN...THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND A DECREASED CHANCE
FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
215 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION...WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT THEN
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO NORTH CAROLINA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM MONDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...AND TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS HAD WARMED
QUICKLY WITH READINGS ALREADY NEAR 80. UPPER-AIR ANALYSES AND THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHEAR AXIS OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE STATE...BUT THE AIR MASS WAS PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH THE KGSO
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AT AN INCH ON THE 12Z SOUNDING AND BELOW
1.2 INCHES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THESE VALUES REMAIN BELOW THE NORMAL 1.5 INCHES FOR
JULY. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIR MASS OVER THE VAST MAJORITY
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION. THE RAP DOES
FORECAST A NARROW RIBBON OF LIFT AND RELATIVELY HIGH 850MB THETA-E
VALUES LATE TODAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KGSB TO KCTZ...AND
WHILE THE RAP HAS NO QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...THE LATEST HRRR WRF DOES FORECAST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TOWARD KCTZ AND HARRELLS LATE IN THE DAY...
COINCIDENT WITH A MODEST INCREASE ON THE RAP FORECAST 300MB WIND
TOWARD THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE RETAINED THE
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EXCEPT THE FAR
SOUTHEAST...AND DUE TO THE FAST WARMING THIS WARMING NUDGED HIGHS
UPWARD ROUGHLY A DEGREE MAINLY TOWARD THE TRIAD. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS KNOTS WITH
MIXING BUT IN GENERAL A SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO JUST OVER
10 MPH SHOULD PREVAIL. TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
DOMINATE AS AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO
CURRENT NIGHTS DUE TO AIR MASS MODIFICATION...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 AM MONDAY...
LEESIDE TROUGH SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO A S/W ALOFT MOVING E-SE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS STRENGTHENING OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN SW SURFACE WINDS WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS 9-12KTS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. THIS
STOUT SW FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL AID
TO BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 90S. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT MAY INTERACT WITH AVAILABLE (BUT STILL RATHER LIMITED)
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT 69-
74.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE THE NEXT MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL
HELP TO SHARPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AND LEAD TO A
BETTER CHANCE OF LATE DAY/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT. THE LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING
A FAIRLY DEEP DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WITH THE EXPECTED LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. THUS... IF ANY STRONG CONVECTION IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA EXPECT WE WOULD HAVE A THREAT FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE IS A BIT MIXED ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION
WILL MAKE IT OUR AREA THOUGH. THUS... WILL ONLY RAISE POPS INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING... WITH MOST OF THE LINGERING CONVECTION
DYING OFF BY 06Z OR SO AT THE LATEST. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1420S TO 1430S. THUS... EXPECT
WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 90S... WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
90S IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... WHERE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND CLOUDS
WILL BE THE LEAST. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING... WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA... ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 NW TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE... WITH EVEN SOME
MID 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.... WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY CROSSING THE
REGION ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT. THIS
COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY PW`S CLIMBING TO
AROUND 2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...
WITH CHANCES EACH DAY PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE DEEP SHEAR INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 KT
RANGE. THUS... THIS COMBINED WITH POSSIBLY MODERATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG... POSSIBLY 2000 J/KG)... THINK WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST A SMALL SEVERE THREAT... AS WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME
MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY EACH DAY. GIVEN THE MOIST AND WARM ATMO...
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION.... GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL BE
A BIT COOLER WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND STORMS. THUS... WILL GO
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90/LOWER 90S. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY SATURDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
DRYING ALOFT AND RESULTANT MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. STILL THINK WE WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED TO MAYBE WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO AT LEAST THE 1420S. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE LOWER 90S... WITH
POSSIBLY SOME MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR MUCH OF
THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS
IN THE TEENS KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WHILE STAYING NEAR
20 TO 25KT AROUND 2000FT OVERNIGHT...THEN THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 20KT. THE
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE
THAN LIGHT FOG...EXTRAPOLATION OF THE HRRR WRF MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT TOWARD
KFAY...AND THE TAF FOR KFAY HAS A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THERE
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND WEST LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH THEIR ACCOMPANYING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS MOISTURE AND...AGAIN...THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND A DECREASED CHANCE
FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...WSS/DJF
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
951 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHWEST ON LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM MONDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...AND TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS HAD WARMED
QUICKLY WITH READINGS ALREADY NEAR 80. UPPER-AIR ANALYSES AND THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHEAR AXIS OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE STATE...BUT THE AIR MASS WAS PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH THE KGSO
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AT AN INCH ON THE 12Z SOUNDING AND BELOW
1.2 INCHES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THESE VALUES REMAIN BELOW THE NORMAL 1.5 INCHES FOR
JULY. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIR MASS OVER THE VAST MAJORITY
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION. THE RAP DOES
FORECAST A NARROW RIBBON OF LIFT AND RELATIVELY HIGH 850MB THETA-E
VALUES LATE TODAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KGSB TO KCTZ...AND
WHILE THE RAP HAS NO QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...THE LATEST HRRR WRF DOES FORECAST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TOWARD KCTZ AND HARRELLS LATE IN THE DAY...
COINCIDENT WITH A MODEST INCREASE ON THE RAP FORECAST 300MB WIND
TOWARD THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE RETAINED THE
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EXCEPT THE FAR
SOUTHEAST...AND DUE TO THE FAST WARMING THIS WARMING NUDGED HIGHS
UPWARD ROUGHLY A DEGREE MAINLY TOWARD THE TRIAD. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS KNOTS WITH
MIXING BUT IN GENERAL A SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO JUST OVER
10 MPH SHOULD PREVAIL. TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
DOMINATE AS AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO
CURRENT NIGHTS DUE TO AIR MASS MODIFICATION...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 AM MONDAY...
LEESIDE TROUGH SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO A S/W ALOFT MOVING E-SE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS STRENGTHENING OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN SW SURFACE WINDS WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS 9-12KTS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. THIS
STOUT SW FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL AID
TO BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 90S. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT MAY INTERACT WITH AVAILABLE (BUT STILL RATHER LIMITED)
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT 69-
74.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE THE NEXT MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL
HELP TO SHARPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AND LEAD TO A
BETTER CHANCE OF LATE DAY/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT. THE LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING
A FAIRLY DEEP DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WITH THE EXPECTED LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. THUS... IF ANY STRONG CONVECTION IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA EXPECT WE WOULD HAVE A THREAT FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE IS A BIT MIXED ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION
WILL MAKE IT OUR AREA THOUGH. THUS... WILL ONLY RAISE POPS INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING... WITH MOST OF THE LINGERING CONVECTION
DYING OFF BY 06Z OR SO AT THE LATEST. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1420S TO 1430S. THUS... EXPECT
WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 90S... WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
90S IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... WHERE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND CLOUDS
WILL BE THE LEAST. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING... WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA... ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 NW TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE... WITH EVEN SOME
MID 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.... WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY CROSSING THE
REGION ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT. THIS
COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY PW`S CLIMBING TO
AROUND 2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...
WITH CHANCES EACH DAY PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE DEEP SHEAR INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 KT
RANGE. THUS... THIS COMBINED WITH POSSIBLY MODERATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG... POSSIBLY 2000 J/KG)... THINK WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST A SMALL SEVERE THREAT... AS WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME
MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY EACH DAY. GIVEN THE MOIST AND WARM ATMO...
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION.... GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL BE
A BIT COOLER WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND STORMS. THUS... WILL GO
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90/LOWER 90S. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY SATURDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
DRYING ALOFT AND RESULTANT MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. STILL THINK WE WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED TO MAYBE WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO AT LEAST THE 1420S. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE LOWER 90S... WITH
POSSIBLY SOME MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 950 AM MONDAY...
AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER SECTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD KAFP AND KRCZ...WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SW SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 8-11KTS
WITH AN INFREQUENT GUST UP TO 17KTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SW SURFACE
WINDS TUESDAY WILL BE STRONGER WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 9-13KTS AND
GUSTS AROUND 20KTS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NW. IN
ADDITION...AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/DJF
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS/DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
203 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY WHEN A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. DRIER WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST HRRR AND RUC SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES/MID MS RIVER VLY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
DWINDLE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. AS SUCH...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOW STAY MAINLY DRY
OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/STORM ENCROACHING
THE WESTERN ZONES TOWARD 8 AM. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY
MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH
LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW OFF FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO OHIO
ON MONDAY. IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. WITH
THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE QUASI ZONAL UPPER FLOW...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING MAY
REACH SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO RELATIVELY VIGOROUS WIND FIELDS AND
MODERATE INSTABILITIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIP DURING PEAK HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
FCST PERIOD. EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE INSTBY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTN IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT. THIS INSTBY COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR WILL LKLY RESULT IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THIS
SIGNAL HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER FOR SEVERAL
RUNS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING MAIN THREATS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT IN HWO PRODUCT. WITH CONSISTENT
SIGNAL FROM MODELS WILL BUMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL TUESDAY AFTN
INTO TUE EVENING.
THIS SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THRU THE AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS MAINLY EARLY SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING FROM THE NORTH. IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.
MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
ON THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLN THAT UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEAN TROF...THERE
COULD BE A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTN...MAINLY ACRS THE
EAST...BUT HAVE KEPT FCST DRY AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY.
THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY WHILE MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS MINOR MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND
AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING SAT AFTN DUE TO AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
OHIO. WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS ACRS ENTIRE FA SAT NIGHT WITH WARM
FRONT PIVOTING THRU FA. LOW CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY IN WARM
SECTOR WITH APPROACH OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION RUNNING SW-NE THROUGH CHICAGO WILL WEAKEN IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SSW WINDS OVER OHIO VALLEY WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE A MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF THE LINE OF
STORMS...BUT IN THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM...DISALLOW THE
ORGANIZATION OVER A LARGER SCALE THAT IS NEEDED FOR THE STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. THIS WILL BE OVERCOME DURING THE
LATTER PARTS OF THE MORNING WHEN ADDED INSOLATION PROVIDES ENERGY
TO CREATE A GOOD BIT OF INSTABILITY TO THE REGION.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE LINE OF
SHOWERS...BUT THE AXIS OF THE H5 S/W LAYS OUT SOMEWHAT NW OF THE
I-71 CORRIDOR TOWARDS 18Z AND THEN BECOMES MORE SHEARED OUT WHEN
IT MOVES EAST IN THE 18-0Z TIME FRAME. LIMITED THE SHOWERS TO
VICINITY AND PUT A TIME FRAME ON TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE TWO
COULD OCCUR AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME AFTER 15Z AND CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24-30 HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH THE
CIGS GENERALLY AROUND 4KFT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1120 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PIVOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION SHOULD BRING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LOWER
HUMIDITY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BUSY EVENING OF CONVECTION IS PAST US...WITH ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY LEFT IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS PRESENTLY. KEPT SLIGHT CHC MENTIONS GOING THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AS PER HRRR SIMULATION...AS DEEP LAYER CYCLONICALLY CURVED
FLOW REMAINS OVER CENTRAL PA AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DECREASES
OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND
70 SOUTH.
AMPLIFICATION OF THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH EARLY ON WED WILL
PUSH THE LEADING COLD FRONT SEWD INTO THE SRN MID ATLANTIC STATES.
DESPITE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY/LOW CAPE...SCT SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS
/NON-SVR/ WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTN GIVEN BROAD
FORCING ALOFT AND LIFT ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT. PWS QUICKLY
DROP NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL BY WED EVE SO QPF AMTS SHOULD BE VERY
LGT AND SPOTTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA WED NGT ON
THE FRONT-SIDE OF GRT LKS SFC HIGH TO PROVIDE A DRY AND
COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT PD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PRIMARY ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH FROM ERN
CANADA TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHEAR OUT WELL TO OUR NE BY EARLY
THURSDAY. 1020-1022MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GLAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS AND COMFORTABLY LOWER HUMIDITY AS SFC DEWPOINTS SLIDE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONT /EMBEDDED IN THE FAST WNW
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NRN U.S./ WILL BRING THE CHC FOR SHOWERS TSRA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NW ZONES. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL
LIKELY CROSS THE CWA SATURDAY /PER THE LATEST GEFS...EC BLEND.
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSRA.
THIS FRONT MAY BECOME STRETCHED OUT MORE EAST TO WEST AND STALL
INVOF PA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONGER PULSE OF ENERGY
ALOFT DIVE SE ACROSS THE UPPER GLAKES REGION AND HELP TO CARVE OUT
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH ACROSS SERN CANADA AND THE NERN U.S. NEXT
WEEK.
EXPECT SCATTERED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION SLIDING THROUGH THE AIRSPACE AS OF
11PM/ THE ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DWINDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF REDUCTIONS WHERE THE SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE
TERMINALS.
ALL SITES ARE VFR AT THIS HOUR...BUT EXPECT SOME LOCAL MVFR/IFR TO
FORM LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS TEND TO FORM.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS W MTNS. SLIGHT CHC OF PM
TSRA IMPACTS SE.
THU-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...LOCAL RESTRICTIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1045 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PIVOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION SHOULD BRING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LOWER
HUMIDITY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BUSY EVENING OF CONVECTION IS PAST US...WITH ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY LEFT IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS PRESENTLY. KEPT SLIGHT CHC MENTIONS GOING THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AS PER HRRR SIMULATION...AS DEEP LAYER CYCLONICALLY CURVED
FLOW REMAINS OVER CENTRAL PA AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DECREASES
OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND
70 SOUTH.
AMPLIFICATION OF THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH EARLY ON WED WILL
PUSH THE LEADING COLD FRONT SEWD INTO THE SRN MID ATLANTIC STATES.
DESPITE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY/LOW CAPE...SCT SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS
/NON-SVR/ WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTN GIVEN BROAD
FORCING ALOFT AND LIFT ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT. PWS QUICKLY
DROP NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL BY WED EVE SO QPF AMTS SHOULD BE VERY
LGT AND SPOTTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA WED NGT ON
THE FRONT-SIDE OF GRT LKS SFC HIGH TO PROVIDE A DRY AND
COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT PD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PRIMARY ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH FROM ERN
CANADA TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHEAR OUT WELL TO OUR NE BY EARLY
THURSDAY. 1020-1022MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GLAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS AND COMFORTABLY LOWER HUMIDITY AS SFC DEWPOINTS SLIDE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONT /EMBEDDED IN THE FAST WNW
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NRN U.S./ WILL BRING THE CHC FOR SHOWERS TSRA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NW ZONES. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL
LIKELY CROSS THE CWA SATURDAY /PER THE LATEST GEFS...EC BLEND.
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSRA.
THIS FRONT MAY BECOME STRETCHED OUT MORE EAST TO WEST AND STALL
INVOF PA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONGER PULSE OF ENERGY
ALOFT DIVE SE ACROSS THE UPPER GLAKES REGION AND HELP TO CARVE OUT
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH ACROSS SERN CANADA AND THE NERN U.S. NEXT
WEEK.
EXPECT SCATTERED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS MID CLOUDS...AND SOME LOW IN NW
PA...STREAMING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST AT KBFD WITH IFR EXPECTED WHEN LINE OF TSRA MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECT
UNTIL THAT SAME LINE OF TSRA REACHES OTHER TAF SITES FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
THESE STORMS LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THESE
STORMS...VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD RETURN FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION COULD SEE
REDUCING CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY JST AND BFD.
SOME HAZE OVER THE REGION GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN 6 MILES OR GREATER.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS W MTNS. SLIGHT CHC OF PM TSRA IMPACTS SE.
THU-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
725 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN SLOWLY PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER RETURNS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM...ALTHOUGH STRATOCU IS BEGINNING TO EXPAND A BIT ACROSS
THE AREA...STILL NO SIGN OF TERRAIN-INDUCED SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...AND THE HRRR HAS FINALLY BACKED OFF THIS IDEA IN FAVOR OF
A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND. THE ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION HAS
THEREFORE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE NE GEORGIA/SW NC MTNS. OTHERWISE...
CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED IN MOST AREAS EAST OF I-85 IN LIGHT
OF EXPANDING STRATOCU.
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED DRIFT TOWARD
TYPICAL EARLY/MID SUMMER WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH DEWPOINTS
AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HIRES/
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INSIST THAT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND SOUTHWEST NC WITHIN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG S/SW UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. IN FACT...TAKING A CONSENSUS
APPROACH WOULD ARGUE FOR LIKELY OR BETTER POPS. NEVERTHELESS...IT
SEEMS THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN INITIATING
CONVECTION DURING THIS SHORT TERM DRY SPELL...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
ONLY MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER ARGUMENT AGAINST CONVECTION FORMING THIS MORNING...OR AT ALL
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IS THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
STABLE LAYER IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST
A VERY DEEP/WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BENEATH THIS STABLE LAYER. THUS...WHILE THIS STABLE
LAYER DOES CUT IN TO THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AVAILABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUNDINGS ARE NOT COMPLETELY CAPPED...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MTNS. ISOLATED HIGH TERRAIN TSRA WAS INHERITED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE RETAINED FOR THIS UPDATE. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM TODAY...WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT VERY CLOSE
TO CLIMO. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE DIMINISHING OF ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR
TWO OF NORMAL BY 12Z TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM MON...FOR TUE AND WED THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN
STRONG OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC...THOUGH MEAN TROUGHING WILL BE PRESENT
ACRS THE ERN CONUS. THE TROUGH INITIALLY WILL BE REINFORCED BY A
SHORTWAVE ENTERING IT FROM THE PLAINS TUESDAY...BUT AS A SFC LOW
LIFTS ACRS ERN CANADA IT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BEGIN TO BUDGE BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS SEWD OUT OF THE MIDWEST...AFFECTING THE TENN VALLEY BY TUE
NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY LAYING OUT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND SRN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THU.
LLVL FLOW GRADUALLY PICKS UP AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND FRONT APPROACHES
BUT REMAINS WSWLY...THUS MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP TUE WILL BE OVER THE MTNS WITH THE ERN CWFA STILL
CAPPED BY THE HIGH. EVEN BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE OFF TO THE WEST
OVER THE TENN VALLEY...AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SOME
OF THAT CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NC MTNS TUE NIGHT. ON WED
THE SAME CONDITIONS SHOULD SET UP FURTHER SOUTH OVER MS/AR...SO WHILE
THE UPSTREAM IS OF LESS CONCERN MOST OF OUR FA WILL BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR IN SITU CONVECTION...ALBEIT WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN APPEARS THE GREATEST CONCERN THOUGH A
COUPLE OF STRONG CORES PRODUCING WIND/HAIL ARE PLAUSIBLE. SOME PRECIP
CHANCES WILL PERSIST THRU WED NIGHT WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA AND
SLIGHT ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY WILL TREND WARMER AS THICKNESSES
INCREASE DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGHING...THE RESULT BEING MAX TEMPS A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. WED HIGHS IN THE MTNS HOWEVER ARE PROGGED TO BE
LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MON...FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWFA ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE ERN CONUS.
ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE PIEDMONT WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES...WITH INSTABILITY NEAR CLIMO. NUMEROUS TSTMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. THEN...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW RESUMES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE REPLACES THE TROUGH...AND WHAT REMAINS OF THE
FRONT WASHES OUT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE BERMUDA HIGH REGAINS
CONTROL AT THAT POINT...SUPPORTING A LIMITED AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WHICH WARM SLIGHTLY
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BY LATE SUNDAY HOWEVER THE GFS
DIGS A SHORTWAVE THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH AMPLIFIES THE PATTERN
AGAIN. THE EC SHOWS THIS OCCURRING A LITTLE LATER...BEYOND THE END
OF THE FCST. NONETHELESS ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED POPS IS BEING
SUGGESTED AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...AS FEARED...LOW STRATUS WAS EXPANDING RAPIDLY ABOUT 10 TO
20 MILES SE OF THE TERMINAL AS OF 11Z. IN FACT...CIGS WERE IN THE
LIFR RANGE AT KEQY. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF AT LEAST IFR CIGS...IF
NOT LOWER THIS MORNING...AND WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A TEMPO THROUGH
14Z. CIGS SHOULD RAPIDLY SCATTER OUT AT THAT TIME...GIVING WAY TO
SCT VFR CUMULUS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT S/SW WINDS TO
CONTINUE IN THE 4-8 KTS RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE...CANNOT RULE OUT A RETURN OF LOW
CIGS LATE IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW REGIME WILL BE MUCH LESS
FAVORABLE FOR SUCH.
ELSEWHERE...A SMALL AREA OF LOW MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
UPSTATE SC THIS MORNING. IT MAY EXPAND A BIT WITH SUNRISE...BUT FEEL
THAT A TEMPO SHOULD HANDLE IT ADEQUATELY AT ALL SC TERMINALS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MTNS...BUT THE EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A TAF
MENTION ATTM. CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR MTN VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT CONSIDERING THE FAILURE OF VSBY
RESTRICTIONS TO MATERIALIZE AT KAVL THIS MORNING...WILL FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY INCREASES TOWARD MID-WEEK AS GULF MOISTURE
RETURNS AND A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z
KCLT HIGH 81% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 79% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING
IN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM...CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREDOMINATE EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILES RESULTING IN SOME MTN VALLEY FOG. AN INTERESTING THING TO
WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS WHERE/HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW STRATUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF LOW LEVEL UPGLIDE/ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ADVECTION SETS UP. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL PROBABLY SPREAD
AS FAR NORTH AS I-85 (EAST OF I-26)...AND SKY COVER HAS BEEN BEEFED
UP TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE LATER THIS MORNING. ALSO OF
INTEREST IS THE FACT THAT ALMOST ALL HIRES AND SHORT TERM MODELS
FEATURE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING IN THE
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL S/SW FLOW. THIS IS NOT ENTIRELY
UNREASONABLE GIVEN DEPICTION OF MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ON THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. IF ANYTHING...THE LATEST/HOT OFF THE
PRESSES RUN OF THE HRRR IS FEATURING AN EVEN MORE ROBUST RESPONSE
THAN EARLIER RUNS. WHILE I/M STILL SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL...DECIDED THAT
IT WOULDN/T HURT TO THROW IN A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK.
AT 10 PM EDT SUNDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
HUDSON BAY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK
UPPER SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OFF THE SC COAST...AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION EXTENDING SOUTH INTO FL.
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE UPPER SYSTEM IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
AND THE COASTAL SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WAS MOVING INTO THE NE
GA AND WESTERN CAROLINA PIEDMONT FROM CENTRAL GA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS INCREASING ON A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...A SUBSIDENCE CAP
AT AROUND 10000 FT AND LOSS OF HEATING WILL PREVENT CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MORE FOG IS
EXPECTED THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS...MAINLY IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE...DESPITE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN RETURN FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCE BEING WARMER MAX
TEMPS AND HIGHER DWPTS. FCST SNDGS LINGER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT
FEEL THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE FORCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HTG IN THE
MTNS AND IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT WHERE BUOYANCY WILL BE GREATEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...ON TUESDAY...THE BASE OF THE H5 TROF AND
ASSOCIATED S/W WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERN END OF A SHORT WAVE MAY
BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA BY 0Z WED. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GREATER INSTABILITY WITH LESS CIN FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THE NAM SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
MTNS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. I WILL START TO INCREASE POP AHEAD
OF THIS TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME SCENARIO. A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF NW TO SE COLD FRONT. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MTNS
BY SUNSET...WITH NAM THE FASTEST. I WILL INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHC
ACROSS THE MTNS WITH CHC POPS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE VERY
CLOSE TO TUESDAY/S VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY NWLY FLOW ALOFT FRI INTO SAT. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT AND BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER THE CAROLINAS PIEDMONT BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE FRONT
WILL THEN OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN
MOIST PROFILES AND MODERATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY
(1500-2000J/KG SBCAPE)...WE SHOULD SEE RATHER CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE...AS INCR S/SW FLOW AND WEAK RISING MOTION
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SPREADS MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE
ATLANTIC INTO THE PIEDMONT. WHILE PRETTY MUCH ALL SHORT TERM AND
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SIMILARLY DEPICT THIS...THE RESPONSE IN TERMS
OF CIGS VARIES WIDELY. HOWEVER...ONE OF OUR MORE RELIABLE HI RES
MODELS DOES DEVELOP IFR CIGS NEAR THE TERMINAL AT AROUND
DAYBREAK...AND THIS IS NOT ENTIRELY UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE PATTERN.
WHILE I/M NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO QUITE THAT LOW...A LOW MVFR CIG
W/ SCT IFR CLOUDS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. LOW/THIN
STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING...GIVING RISE TO SCT
VFR CUMULUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT S/SW WINDS TO
CONTINUE IN THE 4-8 KTS RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS (EXCEPT AT KAVL...SEE BELOW) ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SW WINDS AT 5-10 KTS. SOME GUSTS IN THE MID
TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL AT
KAVL LATER THIS MORNING. WHILE GUIDANCE IS BEEFING UP THE FOG
PROBABILITY...NOT AT ALL UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE INCREASING
MOISTURE...THE TEMP/DEWP SPREAD AT 05Z WAS HIGHER THAN I TYPICALLY
LIKE TO SEE FOR A GOOD FOG EVENT. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS IN
THE MVFR RANGE FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH I WOULDN/T BE ENTIRELY SURPRISED
TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2SM TOWARD 12Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT THE
EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A TAF MENTION ATTM.
OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY INCREASES TOWARD MID-WEEK AS GULF MOISTURE
RETURNS AND A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 87% HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 85% HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT/JDL
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
117 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
CHANGES TO GRIDS THIS MORNING GENERALLY SURROUND THE PROGRESS OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION...AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. FAIRLY LARGE
COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN BRUSHING THROUGH LOWER
BRULE LOCATIONS THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH FORMIDABLE COLD
POOL AND CLOUD SHIELD BEING SUSTAINED BY MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION. CURRENT THOUGHTS
IS A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF THIS WILL GROSSLY IMPACT THE POTENTIAL
FOR DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...BEFORE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT/WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AREA PERHAPS SET
UP TO BE MORE DYNAMICALLY AND THERMODYNAMICALLY IMPACTED WILL THE
THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA...BUT EVEN THERE CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW OUT OF THE COLD POOL AREA WILL IMPACT ANY
SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION. HI RES MODELS ARE FOCUSING
GENERALLY ON SOME DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND WHILE SHEAR IS DECENT...
INSTABILITY WILL BE A FRACTION OF WHAT MOST MODELS INDICATE /RUC
AND HRRR WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S MOST AREAS/.
RATHER HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD ON THERMAL POTENTIAL QUITE A BIT
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST HALF...AND NUDGED DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AS WELL GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF THERE IS ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL... LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY A KBKX/KSLB AND EASTWARD LINE AT
THIS TIME FOR MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
AND IN ZONE OF STRONGER LIFT FORCING ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONG
WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS TWO SHORT-WAVES MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER ND AT 08Z AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO MN. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THIS TROUGH. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER MN ARE MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION BUT WITH THE MID
LEVELS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MOVE INTO AREAS AROUND HWY 14 IN SD AND MN. A LARGE AREA OF MID
LEVEL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND IS SPREADING
INTO WESTERN SD. THIS IS AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONGER WAVE MOVING INTO
EASTERN MT. BY 12Z...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE APPROACHING THE
MISSOURI RIVER IN CENTRAL SD ESPECIALLY WITH LAPSE RATES INCREASING
TO 7 C/KM OVER THIS AREA.
BOTH OF THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. AS NOTED ABOVE...LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND
7 C/KM THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AND WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND RAPIDLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SD AND MN. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO
IOWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. REALLY EXPECT TWO AREAS
OF FOCUS. THE FIRST IS WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY NEAR THE NEBRASKA
AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION CLOSER TO
THE NEBRASKA AND SD BORDER LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN WILL SPREAD
INTO NW IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SECOND AREA IS
WITH THE UPPER WAVE MOVING FROM MT INTO WRN MN BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MUCH OF SW MN TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT
TODAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS CERTAINLY A LOT OF SHEAR IN PLACE WITH 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE REAL
QUESTION IS INSTABILITY. WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY ENOUGH CAPE WILL DEVELOP TO SUSTAIN
STRONG UPDRAFTS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD. HOWEVER...WITH A LITTLE
MORE SUN IN NW IA THIS MORNING...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG...MAY RESULT TO PRODUCE STRONG UPDRAFTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR MAY ACTUALLY SUPPORT A FEW
SUPERCELLS. THE 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR REMAINS LOW SO THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...HAIL MAY GET AS LARGE AS GOLF BALLS WITH GUSTS TO 60
OR 70 MPH POSSIBLE IN A FEW STORMS. STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE
EAST THIS EVENING MOVING TOWARD I35 BY 06Z.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE REALLY DEPENDENT UPON SUNSHINE. WITH MORE
CLOUDS EXPECTED IN SW MN...KEPT HIGHS AROUND 80 WITH LOW TO MID 80S
ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
ANTICIPATED IN SE SD...HIGHS MAY ALSO STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 IN THESE
AREAS AS WELL. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
DRY WEATHER AND MODESTLY COOL MIDSUMMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA THEN BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST. WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
AND DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BRING SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE OF STORMS SHOULD PEAK THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT SHORT WAVE
PROVIDING A LARGE SCALE LIFT BOOSTER. THEREAFTER STORM CHANCES
BECOME MARGINAL AND HAZY WITH CANADIAN SHORT WAVES BATTLING ROCKIES
RIDGING TO PRODUCE A PATTERN WHICH COULD BE WARM OR COOL DEPENDING
ON WHICH OPERATIONAL MODEL IS SELECTED...WITH JUST AS MUCH DOUBT ON
ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A MOSTLY MARGINAL
MENTION EACH DAY AS PER EXTENDED GUIDANCE WITH AN INDICATION OF A
CONSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AND A DRY PATTERN DEVELOPING
ABOUT THE END OF THE PERIOD...OR AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC SHOW THIS...BUT THE EC LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY COOL AS IT
DROPS A CANADIAN UPPER LOW SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WILL
NOT DISCOUNT THIS YET GIVEN THAT FOR A FEW DAYS THE EC WAS NOT
SHOWING THE MONSTER UPPER RIDGING AND HOT SPELL THAT THE GFS WAS
TRYING TO BUILD...AND FROM WHICH THE GFS HAS NOW RETREATED...BUT
SAID UPPER LOW DOES LOOK TOO STRONG TOO FAR SOUTH FOR MIDSUMMER ON
THE EC AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
LARGE COLD POOL SPREADING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WILL
LIMIT SHORT TERM POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A KHON TO
KFSD TO KSLB LINE...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGH THE MISSOURI
VALLEY. CEILINGS SHOULD BE LARGELY VFR OUTSIDE SOME SHORT
DURATION MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SOME NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS BY LATER MORNING TUESDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1125 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
CHANGES TO GRIDS THIS MORNING GENERALLY SURROUND THE PROGRESS OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION...AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. FAIRLY LARGE
COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN BRUSHING THROUGH LOWER
BRULE LOCATIONS THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH FORMIDABLE COLD
POOL AND CLOUD SHIELD BEING SUSTAINED BY MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION. CURRENT THOUGHTS
IS A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF THIS WILL GROSSLY IMPACT THE POTENTIAL
FOR DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...BEFORE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT/WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AREA PERHAPS SET
UP TO BE MORE DYNAMICALLY AND THERMODYNAMICALLY IMPACTED WILL THE
THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA...BUT EVEN THERE CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW OUT OF THE COLD POOL AREA WILL IMPACT ANY
SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION. HI RES MODELS ARE FOCUSING
GENERALLY ON SOME DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND WHILE SHEAR IS DECENT...
INSTABILITY WILL BE A FRACTION OF WHAT MOST MODELS INDICATE /RUC
AND HRRR WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S MOST AREAS/.
RATHER HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD ON THERMAL POTENTIAL QUITE A BIT
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST HALF...AND NUDGED DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AS WELL GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF THERE IS ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL... LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY A KBKX/KSLB AND EASTWARD LINE AT
THIS TIME FOR MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
AND IN ZONE OF STRONGER LIFT FORCING ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONG
WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS TWO SHORT-WAVES MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER ND AT 08Z AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO MN. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THIS TROUGH. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER MN ARE MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION BUT WITH THE MID
LEVELS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MOVE INTO AREAS AROUND HWY 14 IN SD AND MN. A LARGE AREA OF MID
LEVEL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND IS SPREADING
INTO WESTERN SD. THIS IS AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONGER WAVE MOVING INTO
EASTERN MT. BY 12Z...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE APPROACHING THE
MISSOURI RIVER IN CENTRAL SD ESPECIALLY WITH LAPSE RATES INCREASING
TO 7 C/KM OVER THIS AREA.
BOTH OF THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. AS NOTED ABOVE...LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND
7 C/KM THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AND WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND RAPIDLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SD AND MN. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO
IOWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. REALLY EXPECT TWO AREAS
OF FOCUS. THE FIRST IS WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY NEAR THE NEBRASKA
AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION CLOSER TO
THE NEBRASKA AND SD BORDER LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN WILL SPREAD
INTO NW IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SECOND AREA IS
WITH THE UPPER WAVE MOVING FROM MT INTO WRN MN BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MUCH OF SW MN TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT
TODAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS CERTAINLY A LOT OF SHEAR IN PLACE WITH 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE REAL
QUESTION IS INSTABILITY. WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY ENOUGH CAPE WILL DEVELOP TO SUSTAIN
STRONG UPDRAFTS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD. HOWEVER...WITH A LITTLE
MORE SUN IN NW IA THIS MORNING...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG...MAY RESULT TO PRODUCE STRONG UPDRAFTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR MAY ACTUALLY SUPPORT A FEW
SUPERCELLS. THE 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR REMAINS LOW SO THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...HAIL MAY GET AS LARGE AS GOLF BALLS WITH GUSTS TO 60
OR 70 MPH POSSIBLE IN A FEW STORMS. STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE
EAST THIS EVENING MOVING TOWARD I35 BY 06Z.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE REALLY DEPENDENT UPON SUNSHINE. WITH MORE
CLOUDS EXPECTED IN SW MN...KEPT HIGHS AROUND 80 WITH LOW TO MID 80S
ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
ANTICIPATED IN SE SD...HIGHS MAY ALSO STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 IN THESE
AREAS AS WELL. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
DRY WEATHER AND MODESTLY COOL MIDSUMMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA THEN BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST. WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
AND DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BRING SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE OF STORMS SHOULD PEAK THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT SHORT WAVE
PROVIDING A LARGE SCALE LIFT BOOSTER. THEREAFTER STORM CHANCES
BECOME MARGINAL AND HAZY WITH CANADIAN SHORT WAVES BATTLING ROCKIES
RIDGING TO PRODUCE A PATTERN WHICH COULD BE WARM OR COOL DEPENDING
ON WHICH OPERATIONAL MODEL IS SELECTED...WITH JUST AS MUCH DOUBT ON
ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A MOSTLY MARGINAL
MENTION EACH DAY AS PER EXTENDED GUIDANCE WITH AN INDICATION OF A
CONSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AND A DRY PATTERN DEVELOPING
ABOUT THE END OF THE PERIOD...OR AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC SHOW THIS...BUT THE EC LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY COOL AS IT
DROPS A CANADIAN UPPER LOW SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WILL
NOT DISCOUNT THIS YET GIVEN THAT FOR A FEW DAYS THE EC WAS NOT
SHOWING THE MONSTER UPPER RIDGING AND HOT SPELL THAT THE GFS WAS
TRYING TO BUILD...AND FROM WHICH THE GFS HAS NOW RETREATED...BUT
SAID UPPER LOW DOES LOOK TOO STRONG TOO FAR SOUTH FOR MIDSUMMER ON
THE EC AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
WEAK HIGH TO THE SOUTH DRIVING LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING. MAIN CONCERN IS POTENTIALLY TWO ROUNDS OF TSRA MIDDAY AND
THIS EVENING. COMPLEX IN SW SD WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY LIKELY NEW DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE TRACKING THROUGH SD AROUND 18-20Z. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT STORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG BOUNDARY SETTING UP NEAR THE NEBRASKA
STATE LINE. SO HAVE KEPT HON DRY BUT THAT IS NOT A GUARANTEE. AT
FSD AND SUX, HAVE TSRA CHANCES IN AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A BREAK AND THEN MORE RAIN AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS. CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR AREA AROUND SUNSET
BUT HAVE KEPT SCT CLOUDS IN TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
LEFT OVER. THAT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR OUT AFTER 06Z BY WHICH TIME
WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONNELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
900 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL AMP UP THE QPF TOTALS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND ALSO INCLUDE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING AS ISOLATED
AREAS OF FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHER THAN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE MID STATE...WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY
POSTED...EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE OF BOTH MODEL QPF AND HPC QPF
SHOULD REMAIN FFG LEVELS. THEREFORE NO FLOOD WATCH LOOKS TO BE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.
MEANWHILE...NORTH OF THE MID STATE...WE STILL SEE A LINE OF
CONVECTION SAGGING SOUTHWARD THOUGH NRN KY. HRRR NOT OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH STRENGTHENING THIS LINE BUT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
DOES CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z AREA WIDE. A CLOSER LOOK AT THE MODEL
PROGS IN THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS REVEALS VERY WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE WHICH...IF STRONGER...WOULD HELP WITH THE STRENGTHENING
OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH. WE DO PICK UP SOME LOWER LEVEL
OMEGA ENHANCEMENT AT THE 850 MB LEVEL AT 06Z AND THROUGH TO 12Z AS
WELL. SO...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CONVECTION IN KY WILL HOLD
TOGETHER AND MOST LIKELY REACH MIDDLE TN...BUT INTENSIFICATION OF
THE ACTIVITY IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY.
THE PROBLEM WE ARE FACING WITH GETTING A STRONGER ROUND OF
CONVECTION FOR OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE THE ABSENCE OF A STRONGER
MID LEVEL JET WHICH IS MORE PRONOUNCED TO OUR NORTH. A LOT OF THE
STORMS ARE MORE STRAIGHT UP AND DOWN IN NATURE AND THE 850 MB FLOW
IS RATHER WEAK. WITH THE CAPES DROPPING AT THIS POINT AND DEWPOINT
ADVECTION REMAINING NEUTRAL...SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
MAY BE TOUGHER TO REACH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HRRR
CONCURS AS WELL AND THOUGH THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH TONIGHT...MUCH OF THAT AREA
IS NOW WORKED OVER AND THE NOCTURNAL INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE.
AT ANY RATE...WILL LET THE SVR TIMING GRAPHIC CONTINUE...BUT I AM
EXPECTING THAT WE WILL PULL THAT SOON.
FOR THE UPDATE...WILL INCREASE POPS AND QPF VALUES SOUTH AN
INCLUDE A MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL SOUTH. ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY. I STILL FEEL WE WILL SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LINE TO OUR NORTH MOVES OUR WAY.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WILL ISSUE UPDATE TO REMOVE THE LATE AFTERNOON WORDING.
ALSO...STILL CONTINUING TO SEE THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A LINE
OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE OH RIVER. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED OVER WESTERN TN AND THIS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP
NORTHWARD WITH TIME.
UPDATES TO GRIDS WILL INCLUDE LOWERING POPS ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
ONLY PRIOR TO 04Z. REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WITH UNCERTAINTIES THRU AT LEAST 09/18Z CONCERNING INTERACTIONS OF LOCAL
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFTING MECHANISMS PER SFC FRONT APPROACHING
ALONG WITH DEEPENING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DYNAMICS SUPPORTING EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES IN FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE MID STATE...ESPECIALLY FOR BNA/CSV...
SEVERAL AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. WILL GO WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR BREVITY
IN TAF FORECASTS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR TAFT SITES TO EXPERIENCE
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BEST INSTABILITY AXIS GENERALLY REMAINS S
OF BNA/CSV...BUT SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
NWD FROM 09/04Z-09/09Z...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION CAT SHWRS/TSTMS
CKV...WILL MENTION VCTS ONLY. FRONT WILL MOVE THRU MID STATE BEFORE STALLING
BY 09/18Z AND THEN PUSH BACK SLIGHTLY N AS A STATIONARY FRONT THRU 09/24Z...
RESULTING IN AT LEAST VCTS AT TAF SITES THRU 09/24Z.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 548 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LAPS DATA SHOWING THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME STRETCHES
FROM SOUTHWESTERN TN EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLATEAU.
CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG THIS INSTABILITY AXIS. MIDDLE TN
RESIDES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND
THUS...STEERING FLOW IS RATHER SLOW AND WE ARE SEEING THAT WITH
THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS. SO...IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
NOW THE CURRENT POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NORTH OF
TN AND IS LOCATED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE OHIO RIVER. WE ARE SEEING
THE BEGINNINGS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN IL. THIS
IS THE ACTIVITY THAT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
STRENGTHENING AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER
TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE VERY HIGH...MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS NRN MS
RIGHT NOW. SOME OF THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY ADVECT OUR WAY LATER
THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HELP TO REVAMP THE CAPES WHICH ARE TENDING
TO DECREASE AS PER THE USUAL DIURNAL INFLUENCES.
SO FOR NOW...STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH...THEN WE`LL NEED TO
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER COMING SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 156 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
STEPPED OUTSIDE AND NOTICED WE STILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF ALTOCUMULUS
OVERHEAD INDICATIVE OF WARM ADVECTION AT THAT LEVEL. TEMPS ARE
WARMING AT 700 MBARS WITH +8 CELSIUS ALONG THE PLATEAU TO A +10
CELSIUS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND EVEN WARMER 700 TEMPS BACK
IN OKLAHOMA THAT ARE GETTING ADVECTED EASTWARD TOWARD ARKANSAS...BUT
STILL NOT ENOUGH TO CAP US OFF. SURFACE FRONT DRAPED DOWN THROUGH
FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THEN DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THEN INTO
OKLAHOMA. FRONT IS SLOWING ON SOUTH END WITH 35 KNOT WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET BOOTHEEL INTO WEST TENNESSEE. STILL A LOT OF CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION TO OVERCOME AND IT`S GOING TO TAKE A WHILE. STILL BEST
SURFACE BASED LI`S IN EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE ALONG
WITH 2 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT IS BEING TRANSPORTED IN THIS
DIRECTION. ALL IN ALL THINK IT WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE WE
SEE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF FRONT AND IT MAY BE EVEN AFTER 23Z THIS
EVENING. BEST AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE BOOTHEEL AND ALONG
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER. AM BEGINNING TO SEE SOME NEWLY
DEVELOPED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ALABAMA BORDER
WORKING EASTWARD. THIS IN AN AREA OF HIGH SURFACE BASED CAPES AND
LI`S DOWN AROUND -6. STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SURFACE FRONT WILL BISECT MID STATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. COULD STILL SEE SOME STRONG
STORMS SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF MID
STATE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. I KEPT A SMALL POP IN FOR SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND PLATEAU FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH FRONT NEARBY.
UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES INTO FRIDAY BUT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN EATING INTO
UPPER RIDGE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE I KEPT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY DRY THEN INTRODUCED A SMALL POP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
INCREASED POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
EARLY IN THE WEEK.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
802 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING HAVE DROPPED
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FORECAST...SO WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO
ADJUST HOURLY TEMP GRIDS. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX GRIDS WILL
BE MADE AS WELL...TO MENTION NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN MIDDLE TN. BASED ON THE HRRR...SHOWERS
WILL ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LOWERING...THOUGH IT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. A FLOOD THREAT
MAY BE INCREASING IF STORMS CAN ALIGN E-W ALONG A BOUNDARY.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
633 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLIER MCS KICKED OFF
ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS THAT ARE NOW MOVING OFF INTO ALABAMA. OTRW
THINGS ARE FAIRLY QUIET WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN SLOWLY RECOVERING ACROSS THE
NORTH AS TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH AS THE FRONT
MOVES IN. THE 16Z HRRR DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO WITH CONVECTION
PUSHING SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NORTH
OF THE MS/TN BORDER WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONGER WHICH WILL
AID STORM ORGANIZATION. CURRENT HWO HANDLES THIS WELL. RAIN
CHANCE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI OR JUST TO THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THERE WILL
BE SCT-NUMEROUS STORMS OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY WED AFTERNOON AND
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A
PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
WITH WARMING TEMPS. LOW SUMMERTIME POPS. DID NOT GET AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE MEX WITH RESPECT TO HIGH TEMPS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PUSH ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER BY TUESDAY.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BACK THROUGH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BASED ON LATEST SHORT
TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA AT TAF
SITES TO INCLUDE VCTS AND BEST CHANCES FOR TEMPOS AT JBR BETWEEN
09/01-03Z...MKL BETWEEN 09/00-02Z...MEM BETWEEN 09/01-03Z...AND
TUP BETWEEN 09/04-06Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT
MKL BETWEEN 09/09-13Z. ADDITIONAL VCTS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AT
MEM/TUP MAINLY AFTER 09/18Z. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER NORTHWEST/NORTH WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1200 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WITH SPEED BETWEEN 15KT AND 20KT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
UPDATE...
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. UPDATED PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
EXPAND THE LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST AND CALL FOR AREAL QUALIFIERS RATHER THAN CATEGORICAL PRECIP.
ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER MORE THIS EVENING.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASION
REGION MAINTAINING A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AROUND
00Z TO 03Z MONDAY. EXPECT GENERALLY ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 03Z
MONDAY. FEEL THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECIDED TO INSERT LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. THE LATEST
TTU-WRF AND...TO SOME EXTENT...THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE NAM...RUC AND
ECMWF SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS WEEK
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...06Z TO
12Z TUESDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TUESDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE GREAT BASION REGION BACK DOWN INTO THE
PANHANDLES AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. WEAKNESS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AFFECTING
THE FORECAST AREA IN COMBINATION WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION...DEVELOPING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...TO MOVE LITTLE AND CAUSING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS BY TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
DRY CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
14/99
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
834 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE CROSSING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 833 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KFCX 88D SHOWED COVERAGE AREA AND INTENSITY OF STORMS WEAKENING
DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THERE IS STILL SOME DEVELOPING OF
CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN FRONT IN THE UNSTABLE AIR. SHAPED POPS
TOWARDS A BLEND OF HIRESWARW...RNK WRFARW AND HRRR. WILL CONTINUE
POPS IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING LITTLE PROGRESS IN THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY AND LIMITED MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROF.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS.
AS OF 601 PM EDT TUESDAY...
UPDATED POPS FOR LATEST WSR-88D TRENDS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR LATEST OBS AND SHAPED THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
AS OF 315 PM EDT TUESDAY...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVES THAT WILL
DEEPEN THE NORTHEAST TROF. THE SECOND WAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES
THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR WERE VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THE TIMING OF A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...WHAT
WAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM AROUND PITTSBURGH TO NORTHWEST OF
CHARLESTON WV. STILL EXPECTING THIS TO REACH SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
BETWEEN 20-22Z/4-6PM.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS BROUGHT
SURFACE DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...SO CAPES
HAVE PEAKED AROUND 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...AS INDICATED WITH A CLASSIC
INVERTED V SOUNDING...DCAPE WAS A HIGH AS 1300 J/KG IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA. IF STORMS MANAGE TO GET INTO THIS
ENVIRONMENT AND OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.
WITH THE REMOVAL OF HEATING...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH...MAINLY AFTER 02Z/10PM. THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE LINE OF STORMS...EXTENDING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
EXPECTING LITTLE PROGRESS IN THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY AND LIMITED MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROF. BEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF SURFACE BASED IN STABILITY AND CONVERGENCE...PLUS ALONG ANY
OUTFLOW PRODUCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
NARROWING DOWN WHERE THIS WILL BE IS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE.
LOOKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL DEW POINTS RISING BACK UP THROUGH
THE 60S TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS. AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL
DETERMINE HOW HOT TEMPERATURES WILL GET ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHERE IT IS RAINING IN THE MORNING. FOR NOW STAYED
CLOSED TO THE MET GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...
WEAK COOL FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACTUAL SURFACE REFLECTION WILL LIKELY
BE DIFFICULT TO DEFINE CONSIDERING DIFFUSE NATURE OF FRONT...AND
CONTAMINATION FROM COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST...AND WITH SUBTLE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF
UPPER TROF...ALONG WITH GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT...SUPPORT FOR PRE- AND
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING...AND
PERHAPS THOUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
NORTHWESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
LINGERING EARLY EVENING SHOWER.
ALTHOUGH NORTHWESTERN AREAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY ON
THURSDAY...PROXIMITY OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST...AND LIMITED ADDITIONAL MOVEMENT EAST OF UPPER TROF
WARRANTS CONTINUED AT LEAST LOW THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
UPPER TROF FINALLY EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT PLACEMENT SUPPORTS
AMPLIFICATION OF SURFACE RIDGE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST WHICH ALLOWS
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER AROUND BY DAYS END INTO THE EAST. COMBINATION
OF COOLER AIR ALOFT...PLENTY OF INSOLATION...AND LIGHT UPSLOPING
AGAINST THE EASTERN FLANKS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME DEVELOPING CAP TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY EVENING.
POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
TO MAINLY 80S PIEDMONT...WITH 50S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MAINLY
60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...
DAILY THREAT OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE IN THE OFFING DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES IN RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA.
FIRST WAVE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH SECOND WAVE ON SUNDAY...TO BE
FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE IN MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME
AS EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES AND RETROGRESSES
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA.
DEEPENING VERY BROAD UPPER TROF/CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT A GOOD
PUSH OF UNUSUALLY COOL AIR INTO THE MID APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WITH THE COOLEST
PORTION OF THE AIRMASS TO ARRIVE JUST OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...ON WEDNESDAY.
AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT RELATIVELY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN AIRMASS. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...BUT WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BEGIN TRENDING DOWNWARD ABOUT 5F DAILY BEGINNING TUESDAY AS
LEADING EDGE OF SUCCESSIVE WAVES OF COOLER AIR BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON
THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT TUESDAY...
COMMS ISSUES REMAIN AT KDAN DESPITE AN INTERMITTENT RETURN OF
OBSERVATION DATA. AMD NOT SKED CONTINUED IN THE TAF.
SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ARE SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS. HIRESW-ARW AND RNKWRF-ARW PUSH THE
CONVECTION EAST THROUGH THE CWA IN WEAKEN STATE.
LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW FAR EAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROGRESS. HAVE LEFT VCNTY THUNDER IN THE KBCB...KROA AND KLYH
TAFS. THE LEAST LIKELY LOCATION TO GET STORMS WILL BE AT KDAN
WITH LOWER INSTABILITY AND DOWNSLOPING WIND MAKING LESS FAVORABLE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LEE-TROF.
LOSS OF HEATING AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL WEAKEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 02Z/10PM. MODELS SHOWED LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TO EASTERN TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT. DO
NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL RAINFALL IN THE TAFS BUT
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AT KBLF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIFR FOG AND
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN FOR KLWB OVERNIGHT.
BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS
STORMS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH IMPULSES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT DIURNAL TRENDS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY FOR
KDAN/KLYH...AND POSSIBLE IFR FOG LATE NIGHTS...MAINLY KBCB AND
KLWB.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 315 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THIS WAS THE 3RD DRIEST JUNE ON RECORD AT DANVILLE WITH ONLY 1.23
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. RECORDS GO BACK TO 1948. THE DRIEST JUNE ON
RECORD IS 1.06 INCHES IN 2008.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 315 PM EDT TUESDAY...
COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGE CONTINUES WITH KDAN ASOS NOT TRANSMITTING.
THE FAA IS AWARE OF THE OUTAGE AND WILL BE WORKING ON IT...BUT NO
ESTIMATED TIME OF WHEN IT WILL BE WORKING AGAIN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...AMS/WERT
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/PC
EQUIPMENT...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
750 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE CROSSING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 601 PM EDT TUESDAY...
UPDATED POPS FOR LATEST WSR-88D TRENDS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR LATEST OBS AND SHAPED THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
AS OF 315 PM EDT TUESDAY...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVES THAT WILL
DEEPEN THE NORTHEAST TROF. THE SECOND WAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES
THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR WERE VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THE TIMING OF A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...WHAT
WAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM AROUND PITTSBURGH TO NORTHWEST OF
CHARLESTON WV. STILL EXPECTING THIS TO REACH SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
BETWEEN 20-22Z/4-6PM.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS BROUGHT
SURFACE DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...SO CAPES
HAVE PEAKED AROUND 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...AS INDICATED WITH A CLASSIC
INVERTED V SOUNDING...DCAPE WAS A HIGH AS 1300 J/KG IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA. IF STORMS MANAGE TO GET INTO THIS
ENVIRONMENT AND OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.
WITH THE REMOVAL OF HEATING...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH...MAINLY AFTER 02Z/10PM. THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE LINE OF STORMS...EXTENDING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
EXPECTING LITTLE PROGRESS IN THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY AND LIMITED MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROF. BEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF SURFACE BASED IN STABILITY AND CONVERGENCE...PLUS ALONG ANY
OUTFLOW PRODUCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
NARROWING DOWN WHERE THIS WILL BE IS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE.
LOOKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL DEW POINTS RISING BACK UP THROUGH
THE 60S TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS. AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL
DETERMINE HOW HOT TEMPERATURES WILL GET ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHERE IT IS RAINING IN THE MORNING. FOR NOW STAYED
CLOSED TO THE MET GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...
WEAK COOL FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACTUAL SURFACE REFLECTION WILL LIKELY
BE DIFFICULT TO DEFINE CONSIDERING DIFFUSE NATURE OF FRONT...AND
CONTAMINATION FROM COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST...AND WITH SUBTLE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF
UPPER TROF...ALONG WITH GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT...SUPPORT FOR PRE- AND
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING...AND
PERHAPS THOUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
NORTHWESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
LINGERING EARLY EVENING SHOWER.
ALTHOUGH NORTHWESTERN AREAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY ON
THURSDAY...PROXIMITY OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST...AND LIMITED ADDITIONAL MOVEMENT EAST OF UPPER TROF
WARRANTS CONTINUED AT LEAST LOW THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
UPPER TROF FINALLY EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT PLACEMENT SUPPORTS
AMPLIFICATION OF SURFACE RIDGE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST WHICH ALLOWS
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER AROUND BY DAYS END INTO THE EAST. COMBINATION
OF COOLER AIR ALOFT...PLENTY OF INSOLATION...AND LIGHT UPSLOPING
AGAINST THE EASTERN FLANKS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME DEVELOPING CAP TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY EVENING.
POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
TO MAINLY 80S PIEDMONT...WITH 50S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MAINLY
60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...
DAILY THREAT OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE IN THE OFFING DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES IN RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA.
FIRST WAVE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH SECOND WAVE ON SUNDAY...TO BE
FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE IN MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME
AS EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES AND RETROGRESSES
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA.
DEEPENING VERY BROAD UPPER TROF/CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT A GOOD
PUSH OF UNUSUALLY COOL AIR INTO THE MID APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WITH THE COOLEST
PORTION OF THE AIRMASS TO ARRIVE JUST OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...ON WEDNESDAY.
AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT RELATIVELY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN AIRMASS. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...BUT WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BEGIN TRENDING DOWNWARD ABOUT 5F DAILY BEGINNING TUESDAY AS
LEADING EDGE OF SUCCESSIVE WAVES OF COOLER AIR BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON
THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT TUESDAY...
COMMS ISSUES REMAIN AT KDAN DESPITE AN INTERMITTENT RETURN OF
OBSERVATION DATA. AMD NOT SKED CONTINUED IN THE TAF.
SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ARE SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS. HIRESW-ARW AND RNKWRF-ARW PUSH THE
CONVECTION EAST THROUGH THE CWA IN WEAKEN STATE.
LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW FAR EAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROGRESS. HAVE LEFT VCNTY THUNDER IN THE KBCB...KROA AND KLYH
TAFS. THE LEAST LIKELY LOCATION TO GET STORMS WILL BE AT KDAN
WITH LOWER INSTABILITY AND DOWNSLOPING WIND MAKING LESS FAVORABLE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LEE-TROF.
LOSS OF HEATING AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL WEAKEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 02Z/10PM. MODELS SHOWED LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TO EASTERN TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT. DO
NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL RAINFALL IN THE TAFS BUT
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AT KBLF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIFR FOG AND
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN FOR KLWB OVERNIGHT.
BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS
STORMS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH IMPULSES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT DIURNAL TRENDS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY FOR
KDAN/KLYH...AND POSSIBLE IFR FOG LATE NIGHTS...MAINLY KBCB AND
KLWB.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 315 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THIS WAS THE 3RD DRIEST JUNE ON RECORD AT DANVILLE WITH ONLY 1.23
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. RECORDS GO BACK TO 1948. THE DRIEST JUNE ON
RECORD IS 1.06 INCHES IN 2008.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 315 PM EDT TUESDAY...
COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGE CONTINUES WITH KDAN ASOS NOT TRANSMITTING.
THE FAA IS AWARE OF THE OUTAGE AND WILL BE WORKING ON IT...BUT NO
ESTIMATED TIME OF WHEN IT WILL BE WORKING AGAIN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...AMS/WERT
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...AMS/PC
EQUIPMENT...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
353 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND SPILL
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE...WILL BRING AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST
IN THE FAR WEST TUESDAY...AND THEN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE PIEDMONT AREAS ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT MONDAY...
INCREASING MOISTURE IN SW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH EXPANSICE CU
FIELD ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT AT 330 PM EDT RADAR SHOWING NO
ECHOES IN BLACKSBURG CWA...CLOSEST IN FAR SOUTHERN NC. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SOME OF EVENING AND
EXPAND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH MAINLY ALONG BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS GIVEN
WHERE MAX SBCAPES ARE THIS AFTERNOON AND LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING
ANY ISOLD POP UPS NOW MORE ACROSS CENTRAL PART OF FCST AREA. LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT ANYTHING WILL ACTUALLY POP UP...AND ANY CELLS MAY
NOT EVEN BE ABLE TO PRODUCE THUNDER...BUT DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH NOTHING MENTIONED IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE ANY CONVECTION WILL DIE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
LOOKING AT TRENDS IN CONVECTION UPSTREAM VIA SATELLITE AND
RADAR...THINKING THAT MOST MODELS OVERDOING AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
AND THUS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THAT COULD REACH INTO FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS LATER TONIGHT. ONLY MODELS THAT SUGGESTION SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY SNEAKING INTO FAR WEST ARE THE ONES THAT TEND TO OVERDUE
IT...AND INSTABILITY AFTER MIDNIGHT IS NON-EXISTANT...SO
MAINTAINING ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHC POP FAR NW LATE TONIGHT AND
TRENDED DOWN ON CLOUD COVER A BIT MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR ALL FAR BUT FAR WESTERN FRINGES. WENT
WITH COOLER GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR LOWS...BUT STILL A BIT MILDER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE
CLOUD COVER MOVING IN LATE.
TUESDAY CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND TIMING IS TOUGH WITH FRONT
APPROACHING FROM WEST LATE BUT EFFECTIVE DAYTIME HEATING EARLY
WITH LITTLE CAP TO HOLD CONVECTION BACK. THINKING THAT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD FIRE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM BLUE RIDGE
WEST RATHER EARLY...PERHAPS BY NOON...BUT MID LEVEL DRY AIR
INITIALLY WILL KEEP THIS LIMITED. THEN WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND
FORCING BACK ALONG FRONT TO THE WEST...MORE ORGANIZZED CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE. SOME HIGH RES MODELS AS WELL AS NAM
SUGGEST TWO SEPARATE WAVES...WITH ONE BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS
MOVING IN TO SE WV BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT WEAKENING QUICKLY ON
WESTERN SLOPES...WITH ANOTHER PERHAPS MORE SIGNIFICANT LINE OF
STORMS MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY BY EVENING AND APPROACHING FAR SW
VA AND NW NC LATER IN THE EVENING...BUT ALSO WEAKENING QUICKLY DUE
LARGELY TO LOSS OF INSTABILITY. OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS...BUT TRENDED TOWARD SLOWER ARRIVAL OF MID CHC TO LIKELY
POPS UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH OTHERWISE SLIGHT CHC FROM
FOOTHILLS WEST FROM MIDDAY ON. GIVEN LATE TIMING AND WEAKENING
NATURE OF STORMS...THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.
SPC SLIGHT RISK INTO WESTERN THIRD OF AREA WOULD BE MAINLY FOR
EVENING...AND THINK THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS
MOST DEEPER CORES WILL BE COLLAPSING AS THEY MOVE INTO OUR
AREA...AND LINE CLUSTERS AND BOWING SEGMENTS ARE MOST LIKELY STORM
MODE. ANY ISOLD CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS EARLIER IN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT LIKELY TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. ANOTHER HOT DAY
IN THE EAST WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 90S AIDED BY SOME DOWNSLOPE
AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER...AND LOW TO MID 80S IN WEST WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN SOME OF
THESE HIGHS SINCE IT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND TIMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 EDT MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH A BULK OF THE BEST VORTICITY ADVECTION REMAINS NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...UPPER TROF AXIS CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AND MODELS STILL SHOWED FORECAST AREA IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE UPPER JET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP THESE TWO
PERIODS AS THE TIME WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION.
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP TUESDAY NIGHT AND AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS GOOD...THE
LACK OF HEATING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DOWNSLOPING FROM A WEST WIND
MAY SUPPRESS THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA...DEPENDING ON WHERE OUTFLOW FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY END UP. HAVE LOWERED CHANCE IN THE
NORTHWEST.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ENOUGH TO CONFINE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BUT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WEAK EAST FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER PATTERN IS AGAIN BECOMING ZONAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT
MODELS WERE BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN
TROF AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 500 MB
TROF DEEPENS AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SURFACE FRONT IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT ANY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
FORECAST AREA WILL RETURN TO WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE AIR...AND THE
ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...
MED/HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS TAF PERIOD.
COMMS ISSUES REMAIN AT KDAN DESPITE AN INTERMITTENT RETURN OF
OBSERVATION DATA. AMD NOT SKED CONTINUED IN THE TAF...ALTHOUGH
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LOOKS LIKE QUIET WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE
NO EXPECTATIONS THAT ANYTHING WILL AFFECT TAF SITES. PREFER THE
WAY NAM AND LOCAL WRF ARE HANDLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS SO
WILL LEAN ON THEM FOR CLOUD TRENDS.
EXPECT BURST OF CU THIS AFTERNOON TO SCATTER OUT BUT MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF VFR CIGS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WWD. LOW LEVEL THTE FIELDS SHOW A
SEPARATION BETWEEN SOME MOISTURE RUNNING UP THROUGH THE PIEDMONT TONIGHT
AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NW. KDAN MAY SEE
A PERIOD OF BKN VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH THE PIEDMONT MOISTURE AND BELIEVE
SCT CLOUDS WILL HOLD ELSEWHERE...BUT KLWB AND KBLF WILL SEE BORDERLINE VFR
CIGS BY DAYBREAK. ANTICIPATING LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
AND THIS MAY HELP KEEP FOG FORMATION IN CHECK TONIGHT AT KLWB AND KBCB...BUT
IF CLOUDS DO NOT MATERIALIZE FOG MAY BE MORE AGGRESIVE THAN INDICATED.
EXPECTING VARIABLE CLOUDS AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW BUT CU SHOULD DEVELOP INTO
A BORDERLINE VFR CIG BY LATE MORNING KBCB/KBLF/KLWB. BELIEVE BETTER CHANCES
FOR CONVECTIVE PCPN WILL BE VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND SO WILL
NOT MUDDY THE WATERS AND KEEP THINGS DRY WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
EXPECT LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SW TO KEEP GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES WITH
A DIURNAL BIAS. SW IS A PREFERED DIRECTION FOR KBLF SO WILL KEEP WINDS UP A
BIT THERE OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST
PUSH OF UPPER DYNAMICS TO NUDGE THE SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. BUT
THE FRONT WILL LINGER IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
IMPULSES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DIURNAL TRENDS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY FOR KDAN/KLYH...AND POSSIBLE IFR FOG LATE NIGHTS...MAINLY KBCB
AND KLWB.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
COMMS ISSUES WITH KDAN ASOS TRANSMITTING OUT. THE FAA IS AWARE OF
THE OUTAGE AND WILL BE WORKING ON IT...BUT NO ESTIMATED TIME OF
WHEN IT WILL BE WORKING AGAIN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/MBS/NF
EQUIPMENT...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
130 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY...ALLOWING
A RETURN OF HOT AND MORE HUMID AIR TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND SPILL
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
HEATING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT MONDAY...
VERY MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST CURRENT AND NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER
MATCH TEMPS WHICH ARE WARMING UP QUICKLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...AND TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT AND EXPECTED SKY COVER AND WINDS
NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT A LITTLE
MORE SW BY MID AFTERNOON AS RIDGE AXIS AT 850MB SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 1004 AM EDT MONDAY...
MAINLY DRY BUT WARM AND HUMID FORECAST LOOKS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK
FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN MID
TO UPPER 80S WEST WITH LOWER 90S EAST...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY
COMPONENT IN SOUNDINGS AND RADAR VWP SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY BE ENOUGH TO ADD A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SO MADE VERY MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
THERE. WESTERLY WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER ALREADY THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO BUMPED UP GUSTS
REMAINDER OF MORNING AND A LITTLE BIT FOR AFTERNOON AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO PRECIP FORECAST THIS AFT/EVE WITH ONLY
ISOLD STORMS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW NC...STILL SUPPORTED BY
LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS. MIXING OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS WHAT
WILL REALLY LIMIT ANY COVERAGE...AND SHOULD BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND DISSIPATING QUICKLY BY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...
GRADUAL RETURN OF HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE STATES SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
INCREASING SW FLOW TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS SHOULD PUSH 85H TEMPS BACK TO
ABOVE 20C LATER ON AND THIS COMBO WITH WARMER THICKNESS UNDER SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW SOME SPOTS ESPCLY ACROSS THE EAST TO TOP 90. HOWEVER
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ABOUT STATUS QUO...AND DESPITE SOME SLOW INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...EXPECT MIXING TO ACTUALLY LOWER VALUES SOME THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK FOR THE MOST PART. OTRW
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MET MOS UNDER
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAIN QUITE IFFY GIVEN
LACK OF MUCH UPPER SUPPORT WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DRIVEN BY LOCAL
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND INCREASING THETA-E UNDER THE RETURN FLOW. MOST
GUIDANCE BASICALLY DRY THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA BEING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE PER SW FLOW AND
PERHAPS THE EXTREME NW WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOOKING AT
FORECAST PWATS. MODEST INSTABILITY ALSO BEST IN THESE LOCATIONS AND
SINCE HINTED AT BY THE NAM/CMC AND SPC WRF KEPT AN ISOLATED MENTION
THERE BUT WITHOUT POPS ELSW.
IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS ESPCLY SW...MAY SEE ISOLATED CELLS FARTHER
EAST INTO NW NC/SRN VA DURING THE EARLY EVENING OFF OUTFLOW BUT ONLY
SUPPORTED BY THE SPC WRF SO LEFT OUT POPS ATTM. OTRW MAIN CONCERN OVER
THE FAR NW WITH POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ALONG THE
INITIAL FRONT TO ARRIVE LATE. GUIDANCE HAS MOST OF THIS FADING UPON
APPROACH BUT APPEARS CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW POP ESPCLY GIVEN A
DECENT RETURN OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO THE NW. THUS
KEPT IN 20/30 POPS LATE AFTER ANY EARLY COVERAGE ENDS. OTRW BECOMING
MORE WARM/HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS RISING AND BREEZES PERSISTING
ON THE RIDGES. THIS MAY KEEP SOME SPOTS ABOVE 70 FOR LOWS WHILE SEEING
MOSTLY MUGGY 60S ELSW UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND PATCHY FOG
LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THEN
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES TRACKING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD EACH PERIOD.
WITH THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY...THE BULK OF THE STORMS
WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH HEAT AND THE INCREASE OF
MOISTURE...SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST.
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVE STORMS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. AS THE FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL REENTER THE WEST.
ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONT AND A LEE TROUGH WILL INTERACT TO BRING
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE ADDITION OF
A SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED ENTRANCE REGION OF A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ALSO BRING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEW POINT FRONT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO ADVANCE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE MUGGY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
UPPER TROF FLATTENS...WITH ZONAL 500 MB FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE APPROACHING THE
EAST ON SUNDAY.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE DOES NOT GET PUSHED VERY
FAR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROLONG THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR COMES IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE AIR AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...
MED/HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS TAF PERIOD.
COMMS ISSUES REMAIN AT KDAN DESPITE AN INTERMITTENT RETURN OF
OBSERVATION DATA. AMD NOT SKED CONTINUED IN THE TAF...ALTHOUGH
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LOOKS LIKE QUIET WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE
NO EXPECTATIONS THAT ANYTHING WILL AFFECT TAF SITES. PREFER THE
WAY NAM AND LOCAL WRF ARE HANDLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS SO
WILL LEAN ON THEM FOR CLOUD TRENDS.
EXPECT BURST OF CU THIS AFTERNOON TO SCATTER OUT BUT MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF VFR CIGS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WWD. LOW LEVEL THTE FIELDS SHOW A
SEPARATION BETWEEN SOME MOISTURE RUNNING UP THROUGH THE PIEDMONT TONIGHT
AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NW. KDAN MAY SEE
A PERIOD OF BKN VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH THE PIEDMONT MOISTURE AND BELIEVE
SCT CLOUDS WILL HOLD ELSEWHERE...BUT KLWB AND KBLF WILL SEE BORDERLINE VFR
CIGS BY DAYBREAK. ANTICIPATING LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
AND THIS MAY HELP KEEP FOG FORMATION IN CHECK TONIGHT AT KLWB AND KBCB...BUT
IF CLOUDS DO NOT MATERIALIZE FOG MAY BE MORE AGGRESIVE THAN INDICATED.
EXPECTING VARIABLE CLOUDS AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW BUT CU SHOULD DEVELOP INTO
A BORDERLINE VFR CIG BY LATE MORNING KBCB/KBLF/KLWB. BELIEVE BETTER CHANCES
FOR CONVECTIVE PCPN WILL BE VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND SO WILL
NOT MUDDY THE WATERS AND KEEP THINGS DRY WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
EXPECT LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SW TO KEEP GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES WITH
A DIURNAL BIAS. SW IS A PREFERED DIRECTION FOR KBLF SO WILL KEEP WINDS UP A
BIT THERE OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST
PUSH OF UPPER DYNAMICS TO NUDGE THE SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. BUT
THE FRONT WILL LINGER IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
IMPULSES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DIURNAL TRENDS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY FOR KDAN/KLYH...AND POSSIBLE IFR FOG LATE NIGHTS...MAINLY KBCB
AND KLWB.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
COMMS ISSUES WITH KDAN ASOS TRANSMITTING OUT. THE FAA IS AWARE OF
THE OUTAGE AND WILL BE WORKING ON IT...BUT NO ESTIMATED TIME OF
WHEN IT WILL BE WORKING AGAIN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/SK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/MBS/NF
EQUIPMENT...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1202 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY...ALLOWING
A RETURN OF HOT AND MORE HUMID AIR TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND SPILL
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
HEATING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT MONDAY...
VERY MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST CURRENT AND NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER
MATCH TEMPS WHICH ARE WARMING UP QUICKLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...AND TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT AND EXPECTED SKY COVER AND WINDS
NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT A LITTLE
MORE SW BY MID AFTERNOON AS RIDGE AXIS AT 850MB SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 1004 AM EDT MONDAY...
MAINLY DRY BUT WARM AND HUMID FORECAST LOOKS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK
FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN MID
TO UPPER 80S WEST WITH LOWER 90S EAST...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY
COMPONENT IN SOUNDINGS AND RADAR VWP SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY BE ENOUGH TO ADD A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SO MADE VERY MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
THERE. WESTERLY WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER ALREADY THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO BUMPED UP GUSTS
REMAINDER OF MORNING AND A LITTLE BIT FOR AFTERNOON AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO PRECIP FORECAST THIS AFT/EVE WITH ONLY
ISOLD STORMS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW NC...STILL SUPPORTED BY
LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS. MIXING OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS WHAT
WILL REALLY LIMIT ANY COVERAGE...AND SHOULD BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND DISSIPATING QUICKLY BY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...
GRADUAL RETURN OF HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE STATES SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
INCREASING SW FLOW TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS SHOULD PUSH 85H TEMPS BACK TO
ABOVE 20C LATER ON AND THIS COMBO WITH WARMER THICKNESS UNDER SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW SOME SPOTS ESPCLY ACROSS THE EAST TO TOP 90. HOWEVER
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ABOUT STATUS QUO...AND DESPITE SOME SLOW INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...EXPECT MIXING TO ACTUALLY LOWER VALUES SOME THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK FOR THE MOST PART. OTRW
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MET MOS UNDER
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAIN QUITE IFFY GIVEN
LACK OF MUCH UPPER SUPPORT WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DRIVEN BY LOCAL
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND INCREASING THETA-E UNDER THE RETURN FLOW. MOST
GUIDANCE BASICALLY DRY THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA BEING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE PER SW FLOW AND
PERHAPS THE EXTREME NW WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOOKING AT
FORECAST PWATS. MODEST INSTABILITY ALSO BEST IN THESE LOCATIONS AND
SINCE HINTED AT BY THE NAM/CMC AND SPC WRF KEPT AN ISOLATED MENTION
THERE BUT WITHOUT POPS ELSW.
IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS ESPCLY SW...MAY SEE ISOLATED CELLS FARTHER
EAST INTO NW NC/SRN VA DURING THE EARLY EVENING OFF OUTFLOW BUT ONLY
SUPPORTED BY THE SPC WRF SO LEFT OUT POPS ATTM. OTRW MAIN CONCERN OVER
THE FAR NW WITH POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ALONG THE
INITIAL FRONT TO ARRIVE LATE. GUIDANCE HAS MOST OF THIS FADING UPON
APPROACH BUT APPEARS CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW POP ESPCLY GIVEN A
DECENT RETURN OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO THE NW. THUS
KEPT IN 20/30 POPS LATE AFTER ANY EARLY COVERAGE ENDS. OTRW BECOMING
MORE WARM/HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS RISING AND BREEZES PERSISTING
ON THE RIDGES. THIS MAY KEEP SOME SPOTS ABOVE 70 FOR LOWS WHILE SEEING
MOSTLY MUGGY 60S ELSW UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND PATCHY FOG
LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THEN
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES TRACKING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD EACH PERIOD.
WITH THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY...THE BULK OF THE STORMS
WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH HEAT AND THE INCREASE OF
MOISTURE...SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST.
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVE STORMS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. AS THE FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL REENTER THE WEST.
ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONT AND A LEE TROUGH WILL INTERACT TO BRING
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE ADDITION OF
A SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED ENTRANCE REGION OF A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ALSO BRING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEW POINT FRONT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO ADVANCE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE MUGGY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
UPPER TROF FLATTENS...WITH ZONAL 500 MB FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE APPROACHING THE
EAST ON SUNDAY.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE DOES NOT GET PUSHED VERY
FAR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROLONG THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR COMES IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE AIR AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM EDT MONDAY...
COMMS ISSUES REMAIN AT KDAN DESPITE AN INTERMITTENT RETURN OF
OBSERVATION DATA. AMD NOT SKED CONTINUED IN THE TAF...ALTHOUGH
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z/9AM WITH DAYTIME
HEATING... AND EXPECT A SCTD/BKN 4-6K FT CU FIELD TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...HOWEVER
THE CHANCE IS VERY LOW SO LEAVING OUT MENTION FOR NOW. OTRW VFR
UNDER INCREASING SW WINDS WHICH MAY GUST TO 15 OR 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT TO THE NW WILL START TO APPROACH OVERNIGHT PRECEDED BY
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY REACH KBLF/KLWB BY
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS AXIS OF
SHOWERS DOWN SO NOT INCLUDING MENTION ACROSS SE WVA LATE. OTRW
THINKING CONTINUED VFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME ADDED PATCHY
FOG AT KLWB PENDING CLOUDS AND KBCB WHERE SKIES MAY STAY CLEAR
LONGER.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH
BETTER CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TUESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA BY
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF PERIODIC MVFR REDUCTIONS ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH HEATING TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR WEEKS END INCLUDING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
ESPCLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN LOCATIONS. THE POTENTIAL ALSO
EXISTS FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KLWB...AND PERHAPS AT KBCB
AS WELL AS ANY TERMINAL THAT SEES A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
COMMS ISSUES WITH KDAN ASOS TRANSMITTING OUT. THE FAA IS AWARE OF
THE OUTAGE AND WILL BE WORKING ON IT...BUT NO ESTIMATED TIME OF
WHEN IT WILL BE WORKING AGAIN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/SK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1004 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY...ALLOWING
A RETURN OF HOT AND MORE HUMID AIR TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND SPILL
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
HEATING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1004 AM EDT MONDAY...
MAINLY DRY BUT WARM AND HUMID FORECAST LOOKS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK
FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN MID
TO UPPER 80S WEST WITH LOWER 90S EAST...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY
COMPONENT IN SOUNDINGS AND RADAR VWP SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY BE ENOUGH TO ADD A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SO MADE VERY MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
THERE. WESTERLY WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER ALREADY THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO BUMPED UP GUSTS
REMAINDER OF MORNING AND A LITTLE BIT FOR AFTERNOON AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO PRECIP FORECAST THIS AFT/EVE WITH ONLY
ISOLD STORMS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW NC...STILL SUPPORTED BY
LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS. MIXING OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS WHAT
WILL REALLY LIMIT ANY COVERAGE...AND SHOULD BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND DISSIPATING QUICKLY BY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...
GRADUAL RETURN OF HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE STATES SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
INCREASING SW FLOW TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS SHOULD PUSH 85H TEMPS BACK TO
ABOVE 20C LATER ON AND THIS COMBO WITH WARMER THICKNESS UNDER SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW SOME SPOTS ESPCLY ACROSS THE EAST TO TOP 90. HOWEVER
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ABOUT STATUS QUO...AND DESPITE SOME SLOW INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...EXPECT MIXING TO ACTUALLY LOWER VALUES SOME THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK FOR THE MOST PART. OTRW
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MET MOS UNDER
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAIN QUITE IFFY GIVEN
LACK OF MUCH UPPER SUPPORT WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DRIVEN BY LOCAL
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND INCREASING THETA-E UNDER THE RETURN FLOW. MOST
GUIDANCE BASICALLY DRY THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA BEING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE PER SW FLOW AND
PERHAPS THE EXTREME NW WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOOKING AT
FORECAST PWATS. MODEST INSTABILITY ALSO BEST IN THESE LOCATIONS AND
SINCE HINTED AT BY THE NAM/CMC AND SPC WRF KEPT AN ISOLATED MENTION
THERE BUT WITHOUT POPS ELSW.
IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS ESPCLY SW...MAY SEE ISOLATED CELLS FARTHER
EAST INTO NW NC/SRN VA DURING THE EARLY EVENING OFF OUTFLOW BUT ONLY
SUPPORTED BY THE SPC WRF SO LEFT OUT POPS ATTM. OTRW MAIN CONCERN OVER
THE FAR NW WITH POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ALONG THE
INITIAL FRONT TO ARRIVE LATE. GUIDANCE HAS MOST OF THIS FADING UPON
APPROACH BUT APPEARS CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW POP ESPCLY GIVEN A
DECENT RETURN OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO THE NW. THUS
KEPT IN 20/30 POPS LATE AFTER ANY EARLY COVERAGE ENDS. OTRW BECOMING
MORE WARM/HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS RISING AND BREEZES PERSISTING
ON THE RIDGES. THIS MAY KEEP SOME SPOTS ABOVE 70 FOR LOWS WHILE SEEING
MOSTLY MUGGY 60S ELSW UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND PATCHY FOG
LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THEN
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES TRACKING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD EACH PERIOD.
WITH THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY...THE BULK OF THE STORMS
WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH HEAT AND THE INCREASE OF
MOISTURE...SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST.
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVE STORMS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. AS THE FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL REENTER THE WEST.
ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONT AND A LEE TROUGH WILL INTERACT TO BRING
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE ADDITION OF
A SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED ENTRANCE REGION OF A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ALSO BRING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEW POINT FRONT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO ADVANCE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE MUGGY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
UPPER TROF FLATTENS...WITH ZONAL 500 MB FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE APPROACHING THE
EAST ON SUNDAY.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE DOES NOT GET PUSHED VERY
FAR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROLONG THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR COMES IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE AIR AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM EDT MONDAY...
COMMS ISSUES REMAIN AT KDAN DESPITE AN INTERMITTENT RETURN OF
OBSERVATION DATA. AMD NOT SKED CONTINUED IN THE TAF...ALTHOUGH
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z/9AM WITH DAYTIME
HEATING... AND EXPECT A SCTD/BKN 4-6K FT CU FIELD TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...HOWEVER
THE CHANCE IS VERY LOW SO LEAVING OUT MENTION FOR NOW. OTRW VFR
UNDER INCREASING SW WINDS WHICH MAY GUST TO 15 OR 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT TO THE NW WILL START TO APPROACH OVERNIGHT PRECEDED BY
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY REACH KBLF/KLWB BY
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS AXIS OF
SHOWERS DOWN SO NOT INCLUDING MENTION ACROSS SE WVA LATE. OTRW
THINKING CONTINUED VFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME ADDED PATCHY
FOG AT KLWB PENDING CLOUDS AND KBCB WHERE SKIES MAY STAY CLEAR
LONGER.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH
BETTER CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TUESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA BY
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF PERIODIC MVFR REDUCTIONS ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH HEATING TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR WEEKS END INCLUDING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
ESPCLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN LOCATIONS. THE POTENTIAL ALSO
EXISTS FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KLWB...AND PERHAPS AT KBCB
AS WELL AS ANY TERMINAL THAT SEES A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
COMMS ISSUES WITH KDAN ASOS TRANSMITTING OUT. THE FAA IS AWARE OF
THE OUTAGE AND WILL BE WORKING ON IT...BUT NO ESTIMATED TIME OF
WHEN IT WILL BE WORKING AGAIN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/SK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
615 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA...WHILE
TROUGHING WAS IN PLACE FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WERE OVER NORTHERN WI AND
CENTRAL MANITOBA. COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVES ARE COMBINING
WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT COOL AIR ALOFT WAS EVIDENT EVEN AT 850MB WITH 12Z SOUNDINGS AT
MPX AND GRB OF 12C AND AT INL OF 9C. THESE COOL 850MB TEMPS HAVE
HELD TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70S TODAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN
INTO THE 50S THANKS TO A FLOW OF DRY AIR ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
THIS DRY AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 0.5-1 INCH PER 12Z SOUNDINGS...OR 50-100 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA. MODELS PROG THIS SHORTWAVE TO ROUND THE TROUGH AND CROSS
NORTHERN WI BETWEEN 03-09Z. ALTHOUGH THE SHORTWAVE IS COMING ACROSS
DURING THE NOCTURNAL HOURS...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WITH IT
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE. SEEMS LIKE THE TRACK OF THE WAVE
WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT JUST IN CASE DID HOLD ONTO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
ACROSS TAYLOR IN THE EVENING HOURS.
COOLER AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94...AIDED BY THE TAIL END OF THE SHORTWAVE
COMING ACROSS TONIGHT HANGING BACK. IN FACT...850MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED ABOUT 1C COOLER ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...RANGING
FROM 9-11C. THE COOL AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
EVAPOTRANSPORATION COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW MORE SHOWERS
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCES THAT
WERE INTRODUCED LAST NIGHT.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...WITH PERSISTENT DRY ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST AIDING AN
OVERALL GRADUAL FALL IN DEWPOINTS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
LONG TERM HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL
CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND A MUCH BELOW
NORMAL AIRMASS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FEATURES BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AHEAD
OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING SOUTHWEST CANADA. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS
BUILDING RIDGE...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED IN THE 0.5-1 INCH RANGE WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS. THE CONDITIONS ALSO FAVOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MOISTURE POOLING IN SMALLER VALLEY AND IN
THE CRANBERRY BOG AREAS...THE COOLER NIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
FOG IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE AIR MAY BE TOO DRY TO ALLOW THE
MISSISSIPPI TO FOG. ANOTHER MONTH FROM NOW WHEN WE HAVE A LONGER
NIGHT...THIS WOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP
WARMER TOO ON THURSDAY AS 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO CLIMB TO 12-14C BY
00Z.
THE WEATHER THEN GETS A BIT MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
DUE TO A SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS HAVE HAD A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF THIS SHORTWAVE
INDUCING A STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ZONE FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO OUR REGION. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX TO FORM ON THE NOSE OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN IOWA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUGGEST A SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT. ALTHOUGH THIS COMPLEX MAY STAY AWAY FROM THE AREA...IT
APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AIMING UP
AT US TO COMBINE WITH DPVA FROM THE SHORTWAVE TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...50-70...CENTERED ON THE 06-18Z FRIDAY
PERIOD. THIS PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP IT
COOLER ON FRIDAY TEMPERATURE WISE...DESPITE 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 14-
17C. DEWPOINTS ARE GOING TO BE ON THE RISE...THOUGH...MAKING IT FEEL
MORE MUGGY.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...ITS A VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST.
THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON UPPER TROUGHING DROPPING SOUTH
FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT
DETAILS WITHIN THE TROUGH VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THESE DETAILS
IMPACT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION AND THUS WHERE
CONVECTION CAN FIRE. CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT WE COULD DEAL WITH A
COUPLE BOUTS OF CONVECTION...BUT FOR NOW HAVE TO BLANKET MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND WITH 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES UNTIL DETAILS CAN SORT THEMSELVES
OUT. SHOULD BE A GENERAL COOLING TREND HEADING INTO
SUNDAY...THOUGH.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE CERTAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS NOW IN-SYNC HAVING AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW DROP DOWN INTO
THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO TRENDING TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO. BACKING TRACKING
THE UPPER LOW...IT ORIGINATES RIGHT NOW FROM THE ARCTIC...A
SITUATION SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW DURING THE WINTER. THUS...850MB
TEMPS TANK EARLY NEXT WEEK...DROPPING TO AS LOW AS +2C AT 12Z
TUESDAY. THE 08.00Z ECMWF STRUGGLES TO GET LA CROSSE UP TO 65 FOR
TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD BREAK THE RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE OF
68 SET IN 1962. DID NOT GO THAT COLD YET SINCE IT IS 7 DAYS
OUT...BUT KEPT IT MUCH BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS OF UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. ALSO HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES OF RAIN GIVEN THE COOL AIR
ALOFT...THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE THE AIR WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS BOTH TAF SITES ARE ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD FIELD WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDS
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS MAIN AREA OF CLOUDS IS
MOVING SOUTHEAST AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT THE
REMAINING CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE SURFACE
WINDS DROPPING BELOW 10 KNOTS. THE 08.18Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS THAT THE VERY LOW LEVELS MAY SATURATE AT KLSE TONIGHT
BUT DO NOT PLAN TO INCLUDE ANY FOG AS THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE SHOULD INCREASE QUICKLY TO 15 KNOTS OR GREATER. THE BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME MORE
SCATTERED CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS ALSO TRYING TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IT IS
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT ON THIS WAVE...IT
COULD PRODUCE SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER WITH
THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF OMEGA BELOW 600
MB. THE 08.18Z GFS IS VERY SIMILAR WHILE THE 08.21Z SREF
PROBABILITIES ARE LESS THAN 10 IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE 08.12Z HI-
RES ARW ONLY PRODUCES SOME WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY. PLAN TO
LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AT KLSE FOR NOW...BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY
HAVE TO INTRODUCE A VCSH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WE ARE
EXPECTING ALL THE RIVER FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE ARX FORECAST AREA
TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR
THE CURRENT AND FORECAST RIVER LEVELS...SEE OUR INTERNET PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...DAS/AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
319 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS. DRIER AIR HAS ARRIVED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF WI LATE LAST
NIGHT. AXIS OF HIGHER MLCAPE HAS TAKEN SHAPE ACRS PARTS OF NRN WI
AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND ALSO FROM IA INTO SRN MN WITH BETTER
RETURN FLOW THERE. STORMS FIRING FROM NW WI INTO EC MN. THESE ARE
TRENDING ESE THOUGH AIRMASS MORE STABLE IN SRN WI. LATEST HRRR
SHOWS AXIS OF ONGOING ACTIVITY DROPPING INTO SW WI AS THE EVENING
GOES ON WITH STRONGER CELLS STAYING JUST NW OR W OF CWA WITH
WEAKER SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRA SPREADING INTO SRN WI. HOWEVER VERY
IMPRESSIVE JET PATTERN TAKES SHAPE AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PROGRESS. 12Z NAM SHOWS A NEARLY COUPLED JET STRUCTURE EVOLVING
WITH MASSIVE DIVERGENCE. SO FAVORABLE UPPER JET STREAM WILL
CERTAINLY BE A FACTOR. 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING
WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION. THERE WILL BE SOME
RECOVERY IN MOISTURE WITH RENEWED 25 TO 35 KNOT SOUTHWEST 850 JET
ARRIVING TOWARDS 06Z. BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL PROGGD TO AFFECT
SRN WI IN THE 02-11Z TIME FRAME. GFS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR 50 KNOTS
PLUS BY 06Z. SSEO SHOWS BETTER UPDRAFT HELICITY FURTHER WEST THEN
DECREASING INTO THE CWA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING A MASSIVE
AMOUNT OF CAPE COMING INTO PLAY BUT THERE WILL BE A RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT THE BEST OVERLAP OF
FORCING/THERMODYNAMICS TO BE IN SC WI CLOSER TO SWODY1 AREA OF
CONCERN. THE LATEST HRRR IS CERTAINLY A WEAKER SOLUTION THAN THE
12Z NMM AND 12Z ARW. ALL OF THE SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY EXIT SE WI
AROUND 12Z PLUS OR MINUS AN HOUR.
TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST. SO THIS WILL LIKELY SET UP
SOME PRETTY DECENT LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN MORE SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE PLACED IN THE NE CWA. 925 TEMPS
DROP INTO THE TEENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST FRONT. SO HIGHS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 70S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES FOR TUE NT
AND WED AM. THIS MAY ALLOW ISOLD TO SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FROM TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NT OVER EAST CENTRAL WI. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY FOR WED WITH HEIGHT RISES. THERE
WILL REMAIN ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR SCT-BKN CUMULUS WITH
POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES OVER EAST CENTRAL WI. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THEN PREVAIL WED NT INTO THU AM. SLY WINDS TO THEN DEVELOP THU
AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
BUT PLEASANT. PWS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ESEWD ACROSS THE
STATE WITH SLY WINDS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF IT.
MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A W-E STATIONARY FRONT OVER SRN WI OR NEARBY ON SOME
OF THE MODELS. THE UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ON THE DEGREE OF SOUTHWARD DIGGING OF A CANADIAN POLAR TROUGH.
WENT WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MONDAY WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR INTO THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW CU AND
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM MN/IA. LOOKING AT A 02-11Z AS THE
GENERAL WINDOW FOR STORMS...STARTING IN THE WEST AT 02-04Z AND
WRAPPING UP AT THE 11Z TIME IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. UPPER JET WILL BE
A FACTOR SO STORMS EXPECTED TO SURVIVE TO THE EAST DESPITE GETTING
INTO THE DIURNALLY LESS FAVORABLE TIMEFRAME. ANY LOWER CIGS AND
VSBYS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG WITH THE
STRONGER FLOW UPSTAIRS. SLIGHT RISK WAS EXPANDED A BIT FURTHER EAST
INTO SC WI SO KMSN MORE VULNERABLE TO A SVR STORM THAN THE EASTERN
TAF SITES. UPPER FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC ON TUESDAY SO CHCY POPS FOR
SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
203 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING.
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WHILE
TROUGHING PRESIDED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST
WAS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AT THE SOUTHWEST END OF THIS TROUGHING
OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO ROLL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE DPVA REGION...BEING ENHANCED
NOW BY DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER JET STREAK GOING FROM
MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...PROVIDING UPPER DIVERGENCE FOR THOSE
STORMS. CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING FROM CENTRAL MN INTO THE NORTH HALF OF WI. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THROUGH THE FLOW...COMBINED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND 1000 J/KG OF UNCAPPED MLCAPE PER RAP ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO THEIR DEVELOPMENT. HAVE HAD A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE
SUPERCELLS DEVELOP TOO. ANOTHER PLUME OF LITTLE HIGHER
INSTABILITY...1000-2000 J/KG PER RAP...WAS EVIDENT ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ASSOCIATED WITH CORN
EVAPOTRANSPORATION. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED NICELY DUE TO CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING AND HAVING 850MB TEMPS OF 15-18C. MAIN SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MN INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...THERE ARE
SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE 500MB HEIGHT FALLS FOR EARLY JULY...ON THE
ORDER OF 60-80 METERS IN 12 HOURS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS PLENTY
OF DYNAMIC FORCING COMING ACROSS THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...THAT
UPPER JET STREAK GOING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA NOW SHOULD SLIDE JUST TO
OUR SOUTH IN IOWA...PROVIDING UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPORT. THROW IN
LINGERING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND THIS PROVIDES A GREAT RECIPE FOR
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS AGREE AS WELL...WITH A MAX PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TIME LIKELY CENTERED NEAR 03Z.
THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST MOSTLY BETWEEN 23-03Z...
WHEN THE DYNAMICS ARE JUXTAPOSED ON TOP OF THE THERMODYNAMICS...AND
STORMS CAN MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATION OF INFLOW. STILL COULD HAVE SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE BEFORE THEN LIKE WE ARE OBSERVING NOW. 0-3KM AND 0-6
KM SHEAR STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION...30-
35 KT AND 40-55 KT RESPECTIVELY. HODOGRAPHS ARE MAINLY STRAIGHT
LINE...SUGGESTING SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...WHILE THE SHEAR ALSO FAVORS
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. GIVEN A MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM
SURFACE TO THE MID LEVELS...BELIEVE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT
SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR THE PRECIPITATION WEST TO EAST. THE FORECAST
AREA COULD BE COMPLETELY DRY BY 09Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
UPPER TROUGH SET UP FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH...REFLECTED BY 500MB TEMPS OF -13 TO -15C...COULD BE
ENOUGH TO INSTIGATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME ISSUES THAT WOULD FAVOR A DRIER
FORECAST. FIRST...MODELS AGAIN ARE LIKELY OVERDOING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD
FAVOR A GOOD DRYING/MIXING SCENARIO. SECOND...SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPEAR TO TRACK NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THUS...HAVE ONLY KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20-30 RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
A NICE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EAST...UPPER RIDGING EVENTUALLY BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY
00Z FRIDAY...AND SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
ALSO FORECAST BETWEEN 0.5-1 INCH...OR ANYWHERE FROM 50-100 PERCENT
OF NORMAL...SUPPORTING A DRY FORECAST AND ALSO ALLOWING FOR LARGER
DIURNAL SWINGS. NIGHTTIME LOWS COULD GET RELATIVELY CHILLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVERHEAD. THEREFORE IT ALSO SEEMS TO BE THE BEST NIGHT TO HAVE
TRIBUTARY VALLEY FOG.
THE WEATHER THEN STARTS TO POSSIBLY TURN MORE ACTIVE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS A RESULT OF VERY
GOOD MOISTURE RETURN...CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER UPWARDS
OF 1.5-1.8 INCHES...FLOWING BACK INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SURFACE HIGH. MEANWHILE...IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...AN UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO OUR REGION. SOME
OF THE DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN RIGHT NOW...BUT CERTAINLY FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THERE COULD BE OFF AND ON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. THIS CREATES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT AT LEAST FRIDAY 850MB TEMPS ARE
15-18C AND COULD BE SIMILAR ON SATURDAY. NOTE THAT A GENERAL COOLING
IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IF THE
07.00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS ARE RIGHT WHERE THEY SHOW 850MB TEMPS FALLING
TO 6C ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...IN ROUGHLY THE 22Z TO 04Z TIME-FRAME.
UNTIL THEN...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH SOME MODEST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS INCREASING LIFT ALOFT AND INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO GENERATE SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 THRU THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THESE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE TAF SITES LATE.
THUS THE VCTS AT BOTH KRST/KLSE AFTER 22Z. THE MAIN ROUND OF
FORCING/LIFT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY AND
MID EVENING HOURS...WITH A ROUND OF STRONGER SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/
CHANCES TO INCLUDE A TEMPO 2SM TSRA BKN020 AT BOTH SITES IN THE 00-
02Z PERIOD...THOUGH THIS MAY STILL SHIFT AN HOUR EITHER WAY AT BOTH
SITES. QUIETER/DRIER/VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE LATE
EVENING THRU TUE MORNING HOURS AS NORTHWEST WINDS BRING DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE REGION. SOME GUSTINESS OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
LATER TUE MORNING/TUE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL WARMING MIXING AND A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO FALL. IN FACT...WE ARE EXPECTING
ALL THE RIVER FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE ARX FORECAST AREA TO FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FLOOD WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AT WINONA AND LA CROSSE AND WILL SOON BE AT
WABASHA. PERIODIC RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
IT APPEARS THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE MISSISSIPPI...OR ITS TRIBUTARIES FOR THAT MATTER.
FOR THE CURRENT AND FORECAST RIVER LEVELS...SEE OUR INTERNET PAGE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1120 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE GENERAL WEAK
TROUGHING PRESIDED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS
EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL MN. ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORTWAVE PER THE RAP AT
800MB WERE 30 KT NORTHWEST WINDS AND 14-15C TEMPERATURES. COMPARE
THIS TO 25-30 KT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 18-20C TEMPERATURES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THAT WARM NOSE COMBINED WITH MORNING STRATUS AND
DEBRIS CLOUDS HAS KEPT CONDITIONS CAPPED THUS FAR. EDGE OF CAP
REFLECTED NICELY TOO BY SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING ON OVER WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART
HAVE BEEN STUCK IN THE 70S WITH A FEW 80S WHERE CLEARING BRIEFLY
OCCURRED IN SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ON
THE RISE...THOUGH...NOW IN THE LOW 70S. BACK IN WESTERN IA...
EVAPOTRANSPORATION PUSHING DEWPOINTS THERE IN THE UPPER 70S.
THINKING THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING TOWARDS THE AREA IS NOT
HELPING MATTERS TO CLEAR THE STRATUS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS HAVE RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-
2010 J/KG WHILE MLCIN SITS 50-100 J/KG WHERE IT CLEARED TO
201-300 J/KG WHERE ITS STILL CLOUDY. MEANWHILE...IN SOUTHWEST
MN... DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN OFF INTO MID LOW 50S BEHIND A
TROUGH/DRYLINE THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO NORTHWEST
WI.
ANTICIPATING CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG THE
TROUGH/DRYLINE NEAR/WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES TO GET RID OF THE CIN. CONVECTION SHOULD TAKE ON A
SCATTERED NATURE GIVEN THE CAP IN PLACE. WHERE CONVECTION DOES
FIRE...0-3KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR ARE ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KT... WHICH
SHOULD FAVOR MORE MULTI-CELLULAR ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
CAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT AN INITIAL SUPERCELL...BUT THINKING MORE
INTENSE MULTI-CELLS ARE MORE LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS OF BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 01-02Z.
HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE CONVECTION DOESNT EVEN MAKE
IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF THE
MASSIVE AMOUNT OF CIN RIGHT NOW IN PLACE. MANY HRRR RUNS TODAY HAVE
SHOWN THIS.
MUCH OF TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN LOOKS DRY AS
UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 500MB BRINGS IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN FROM NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS
REFLECTED WELL IN GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS VALUES
OF 1 INCH OR LESS OVER WESTERN MN COMPARED TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.
HEADING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...A LONG WAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN. INCREASING
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...COMBINED WITH 1000-
1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH LITTLE CAPPING AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS
MINNESOTA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS DEPICTED TOO BY DETERMINISTIC
AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. THIS CONVECTION COULD SPREAD INTO THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN 0-3KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KT AND MORE IMPORTANTLY 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF
40-55 KT...ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE. COULD
END UP SEEING A MIX OF SUPERCELL AND LINE SEGMENTS...THOUGH THE
SHEAR BEING UNIDIRECTIONAL MAY FAVOR MORE LINE SEGMENTS AND THUS
DAMAGING WINDS. NEED TO WATCH THE LARGE HAIL CONCERN INITIALLY TOO
GIVEN LOWER FREEZING LEVELS...DROPPING FROM NEAR 14000 FT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 12010 FT LATE MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE SEVERE POTENTIAL MONDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR MID-WEEK.
MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE LONG WAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500MB AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A POINT IN THE EVENING WHERE WE GET
INTO A LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. COMBINE THIS
DYNAMICAL FORCING WITH AN 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT PLUME AND
LINGERING INSTABILITY MEANS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. UNTIL INSTABILITY
WANES...EXPECT A SEVERE THREAT TO EXIST...JUST AS THE 06.12Z HIRES
ARW/NMM SUGGEST. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION COULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...OR AT LEAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF...SO
PRECIPITATION DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
PLUS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TANK AGAIN AFTER BRIEFLY COMING UP
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ON TUESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ON SETTING UP AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. COOL AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH THIS TROUGH IN WISCONSIN...DAYTIME HEATING...AS WELL AS
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPARK SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE IN WISCONSIN
WITH THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH.
DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A RESULT OF A DRIER WESTERN CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE AREA MOVING THROUGH...AND BEING AROUND THE INFLECTION POINT
BEHIND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH 850MB TEMP
ANOMALIES ABOUT 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL...OR BETWEEN 9-
13C. LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.75 INCHES WILL HELP TOO IN
RADIATIVE COOLING AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH MIXING OF DEWPOINTS IN THE
DAY. COULD SEE SOME VALLEY FOG TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. WARM ADVECTION BEGINS IN
EARNEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH HEADS OFF TO THE EAST. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE WITH
THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...PERHAPS CREEPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA EITHER LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. STORM CHANCES THEN LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM
MANITOBA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PERHAPS BY SUNDAY ALL
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL GET SHOVED TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...HAVE STILL
MAINTAINED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURE WISE...850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY RANGE 16-18C THROUGH SATURDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
80S. THESE SHOULD COOL BACK SOME ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROUGH DROPPING
IN. HUMIDITY WILL BE UP TOO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THAT RETURN
FLOW...EVAPOTRANSPORATION AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION ADDING MOISTURE
TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS...THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
STILL RELATIVELY MOIST AT THE SFC AT LATE EVENING...WITH TDS IN THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
THOUGH...AND ANTICIPATE TDS NEARING 60 AT BOTH KRST/KLSE BEFORE 12Z.
SOME HINTS IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT SOME BR COULD DEVELOP AT THE
VALLEY LOCATION OF KLSE...BUT IF TDS FALL AS EXPECTED...AND WINDS
HOVER IN THE 7-8 MPH RANGE...THINK THIS FOG WOULD BE HELD AT BAY. IF
WINDS STAY LIGHT AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES LONGER TO GET TO KLSE...BR
IS MORE LIKELY. TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND UPDATES TO
FORECAST MADE IF NEEDED.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SFC FRONT COMBO WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...TRIGGERING
MORE SHRA/TS. THREAT TIME APPEARS TO BE IN THE 21-06Z TIME FRAME AT
THE MOMENT. ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR A STRONG-SEVERE STORM
THREAT...WITH MAIN THREAT FOCUSED ON DAMAGING WINDS. WILL USE A MIX
OF VCSH/VCTS AND -SHRA TO OUTLINE THE POTENTIAL FOR NOW. WILL LET
LATER FORECASTS/UPDATES FINE-TUNE THE HIGHER PERIODS FOR TSRA AS
THEY BECOME CLEARER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
RIVER STAGES ARE FALLING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND IT
APPEARS THAT ALL OF THEM WILL BE BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME RAIN FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT NONE OF
IT LOOKS WIDESPREAD HEAVY ENOUGH TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
THE MISSISSIPPI...OR EVEN TRIBUTARIES FOR THAT MATTER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM..AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION....RIECK
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
100 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
.AVIATION...09/06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION ACRS CNTRL AND SRN AR WL CONT TO WEAKEN THRU THE EARLY
MRNG HRS...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDS ANTICIPATED. ASSOCD FNTL
BNDRY IS PROGGED TO MEANDER ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA LATER TODAY...
WITH VCTS MENTIONED AT KPBF AND KLLQ FOR THE AFTN HRS. EXPECT VFR
CONDS TO PREVAIL ACRS NRN AR AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THAT AREA
THRU THE PD. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE 00Z-06Z TIME
FRAME AS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS SITUATED ACROSS THE MIDDLE THIRD
OF THE STATE ROUGHLY. SVR TSTORM WATCH 406 IS IN EFFECT FOR
SEVERAL COUNTIES ACROSS THE FA THROUGH 11 PM LOCAL TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH EARLIER
TODAY AS A DECAYING MCS MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI. OTHER THAN A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...ALL PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
FEATURE IS PRETTY MUCH SAID AND DONE. ATTENTION WILL TURN BACK A
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EXTENDING BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF A LONG WAVE
TROUGH...CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AT THIS TIME. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL HELP TO
MOVE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT INTO THE STATE. THE HRRR ONCE AGAIN
DID A GOOD JOB IN THE VERY NEAR TERM AND ONCE AGAIN THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT VERSUS OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS AND THE
FORECAST WILL BE TRENDED THIS WAY.
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE STATE THIS EVENING AND SAG TO THE SOUTH...REACHING CENTRAL
SECTIONS BY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
ON WHERE THIS FRONT EVENTUALLY ENDS UP BUT CURRENT THINKING IS IT
WILL REACH THE LOUISIANA BORDER LATE WEDNESDAY. AFTER STALLING
BRIEFLY THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO GETS REESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH AND
THEN BACK OUT OF THE STATE. A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED IN SPITE OF PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES POOLING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. STILL WITH THIS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW GUIDANCE AND WITH EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WOULD EXPECT THIS CONTINUE. AS
SUCH...GUIDANCE WILL BE UNDERCUT A FEW DEGREES.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN LESSENING OVER THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE AS UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A MORE
NWRLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS HOWEVER...TEMPS ON
SAT WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OVER 100 IN MANY SPOTS. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO REMAIN
LOW...WITH MAYBE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SAT. SUN WILL
ALSO REMAIN WARM...BUT COULD SEE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
AREA AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO FALL SOME. KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR SUN
AS WELL...THOUGH THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. ALSO HAVE TEMPS COOLING WITH
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES...AND EVEN FROM NRLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST IF THE FRONT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY
THAT TIME.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
523 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL PULL ANOTHER COOL FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, BEFORE IT SLIDES OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL COLD FRONT IS VERY HARD TO DISTINGUISH NOW, WHICH MAKES IT
ALL THE HARDER TO FIGURE OUT WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY.
ALTHOUGH TODAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY, THUS
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE INSTABILITY, ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 500 J/KG,
LI LESS THAN ZERO, AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 40KT WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS, IF THERE IS
CONFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE. THE QUESTION WILL JUST BE WHERE THE
CONFLUENCE WILL BE, AS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM LAST
NIGHT/S CONVECTION AND THE LEFT OVER TROUGH AXIS FROM YESTERDAY
ARE THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE,
BUT ARE POORLY DEFINED AT THIS TIME.
AS FAR AS SEVERE THREAT...AS MENTIONED BEFORE, THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED ESPECIALLY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT THE HIGHER SHEAR
VALUES COULD HELP TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL HAIL.
IN ADDITION, MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND RAP SHOW A DRY
LAYER BY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 400 TO 500 MB. THIS COULD FURTHER
ENHANCE THE DOWNBURST THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL FINALLY SEE A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT HERALDING DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. THUS, SHOULD SEE MOST
CONVECTION WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLOSER TO
THE SHORE WHICH WILL SEE A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, THERE WILL REMAIN AT LEAST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT OUT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY, HOWEVER ANOTHER
TROUGH THEN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL GENERALLY KEEP OUR AREA UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH
A COLD FRONT OR TWO SETTLING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE INTO CONTINUITY.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A COOL FRONT LOOKS TO BE DRAPED NEAR OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THURSDAY BEFORE TENDING TO DISSIPATE FRIDAY.
THERE IS THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, THEREFORE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. THE
BETTER CHC APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE LINGERING FRONT AND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FRIDAY, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN BE
SHIFTING TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AT NIGHT. THIS WILL
DEVELOP AN ONSHORE FLOW, HOWEVER IT IS NOT ALL THAT CERTAIN HOW MUCH
DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS AS THIS OCCURS.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY MORNING, THE FLOW SHOULD
TURN FROM EAST-SOUTHEAST TO MORE SOUTHERLY. AS THIS OCCURS, SOME WAA
MAY ALLOW A LINGERING BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. OVERALL WHILE SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY, AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING PEAK HEATING
ESPECIALLY INLAND NORTH OF A POSSIBLE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE. AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE CYCLONIC SUNDAY, SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON
PROBABLY TIED TO A LEE SIDE TROUGH. OVERALL, WE USED A 50/50 BLEND
OF CONTINUITY AND WPC GUIDANCE.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY SLIDE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
OUR NORTH, HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE INTO OUR
AREA AROUND THE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THERE SHOULD BE
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS
NORTHEASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT, AND ALSO INCREASING
CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS,
HOWEVER THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ORGANIZATION AS WELL AS THE ACTUAL
INSTABILITY. AS OF NOW, MONDAY MAY HAVE A HIGHER CHC OF CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. WE KEPT CHC POPS AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS.
PATCHY BR RESULTING IN VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 3 MILES IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. BY 18Z, COULD BEGIN TO
SEE ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR TSRA LOOK TO BE AT KABE, KRDG, KACY, AND KMIV...THOUGH EVEN AT
THESE LOCATIONS, CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT IS TOO LOW AND COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT,
BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND DECREASING THE CHANCES FOR ANY MORE BR
DEVELOPMENT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
AROUND MAINLY THURSDAY WITH LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE,
MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, RESULTING IN BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
THOUGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, HAVE
NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE SCA ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS SEAS AT BUOY 44009 REMAIN NEAR 6 FT AND WILL BE SLOW TO
DIMINISH. ONCE SEAS DO DIMINISH, EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS, HOWEVER SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FRIDAY THEN SHIFTS OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS
MAY RESULT IN AN ONSHORE FLOW THAT STRENGTHENS SOME FOR A TIME
BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY. IT APPEARS THOUGH THAT THE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT MAY NEAR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS, HOWEVER THE FLOW
LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE IS MODERATE
TODAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL PULL ANOTHER COOL FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, BEFORE IT SLIDES OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL COLD FRONT IS VERY HARD TO DISTINGUISH NOW, WHICH MAKES IT
ALL THE HARDER TO FIGURE OUT WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY.
ALTHOUGH TODAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY, THUS
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE INSTABILITY, ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 500 J/KG,
LI LESS THAN ZERO, AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 40KT WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS, IF THERE IS
CONFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE. THE QUESTION WILL JUST BE WHERE THE
CONFLUENCE WILL BE, AS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM LAST
NIGHT/S CONVECTION AND THE LEFT OVER TROUGH AXIS FROM YESTERDAY
ARE THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE,
BUT ARE POORLY DEFINED AT THIS TIME.
AS FAR AS SEVERE THREAT...AS MENTIONED BEFORE, THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED ESPECIALLY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT THE HIGHER SHEAR
VALUES COULD HELP TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SMALL HAIL.
IN ADDITION, MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND RAP SHOW A DRY
LAYER BY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 400 TO 500 MB. THIS COULD FURTHER
ENHANCE THE DOWNBURST THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL FINALLY SEE A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT HERALDING DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. THUS, SHOULD SEE MOST
CONVECTION WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLOSER TO
THE SHORE WHICH WILL SEE A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, THERE WILL REMAIN AT LEAST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT OUT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY, HOWEVER ANOTHER
TROUGH THEN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL GENERALLY KEEP OUR AREA UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH
A COLD FRONT OR TWO SETTLING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE INTO CONTINUITY.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A COOL FRONT LOOKS TO BE DRAPED NEAR OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THURSDAY BEFORE TENDING TO DISSIPATE FRIDAY.
THERE IS THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, THEREFORE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. THE
BETTER CHC APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE LINGERING FRONT AND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FRIDAY, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN BE
SHIFTING TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AT NIGHT. THIS WILL
DEVELOP AN ONSHORE FLOW, HOWEVER IT IS NOT ALL THAT CERTAIN HOW MUCH
DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS AS THIS OCCURS.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY MORNING, THE FLOW SHOULD
TURN FROM EAST-SOUTHEAST TO MORE SOUTHERLY. AS THIS OCCURS, SOME WAA
MAY ALLOW A LINGERING BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. OVERALL WHILE SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY, AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING PEAK HEATING
ESPECIALLY INLAND NORTH OF A POSSIBLE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE. AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE CYCLONIC SUNDAY, SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON
PROBABLY TIED TO A LEE SIDE TROUGH. OVERALL, WE USED A 50/50 BLEND
OF CONTINUITY AND WPC GUIDANCE.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY SLIDE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
OUR NORTH, HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE INTO OUR
AREA AROUND THE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THERE SHOULD BE
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS
NORTHEASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT, AND ALSO INCREASING
CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS,
HOWEVER THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ORGANIZATION AS WELL AS THE ACTUAL
INSTABILITY. AS OF NOW, MONDAY MAY HAVE A HIGHER CHC OF CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. WE KEPT CHC POPS AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS.
PATCHY BR RESULTING IN VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 3 MILES IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. BY 18Z, COULD BEGIN TO
SEE ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR TSRA LOOK TO BE AT KABE, KRDG, KACY, AND KMIV...THOUGH EVEN AT
THESE LOCATIONS, CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT IS TOO LOW AND COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT,
BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND DECREASING THE CHANCES FOR ANY MORE BR
DEVELOPMENT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
AROUND MAINLY THURSDAY WITH LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE,
MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, RESULTING IN BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
THOUGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, HAVE
NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE SCA ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS SEAS AT BUOY 44009 REMAIN NEAR 6 FT AND WILL BE SLOW TO
DIMINISH. ONCE SEAS DO DIMINISH, EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS, HOWEVER SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FRIDAY THEN SHIFTS OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS
MAY RESULT IN AN ONSHORE FLOW THAT STRENGTHENS SOME FOR A TIME
BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY. IT APPEARS THOUGH THAT THE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT MAY NEAR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS, HOWEVER THE FLOW
LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST IS MODERATE
TODAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
422 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
WILL PRODUCE CHANGES IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF FL PENINSULA WITH A LIGHT W TO NW FLOW EXPECTED THIS
MORNING BEFORE TURNING ONSHORE IN AN EASTERLY SEA BREEZE BY EARLY
AFTN. SUFFICIENT SOLAR HEATING WILL PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 90S INTERIOR AND NEAR 90 COAST. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW A LITTLE DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF FORECAST AREA.
THIS SHOULD REDUCE STORM COVERAGE SOMEWHAT. THE MORNING SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY THEN THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD SPARK ISOLD/SCT
STORMS NEAR THE COAST ESP SOUTH OF THE CAPE THIS AFTN...SHIFTING
TO THE INTERIOR LATER IN THE DAY. BOUNDARY COLLISIONS SHOULD AGAIN
PRODUCE A FEW STRONG STORMS MAINLY INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTN AND
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PUSH BACK TO THE
COAST LATE IN THE DAY/EVE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPE.
THU-TUE...
WEAK MID/UPR LVL WIND PATTERN CONTINUES ACRS THE SRN TIER STATES
WITH RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING WINDS SPEED AOB 30KTS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE
OF AN 80-100KT H30-H20 LIFTING JET EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO
SRN QUEBEC...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIG JET ENERGY ACRS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS OR THE EPAC. THE TEPID NATURE OF THE CURRENT
JET PATTERN WILL ENSURE THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM THE NW GOMEX AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC VIA THE FL
STRAITS...WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR CENTRAL FL THRU
MID JULY.
THIS IS A TYPICAL MID SUMMER WX PATTERN...SO NO BIG SURPRISES IN
STORE THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD TROFFING PATTERN OVER
THE ERN CONUS FED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MAX WILL KEEP THE RIDGE
AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER THE S HALF OF FL THRU THU...GIVING THE EAST
CENTRAL PENINSULA ONE MORE DAY OF 40-60POPS. AS THE TROF DAMPENS AND
LIFT OUT TO THE N...THE ATLC RIDGE WILL DRIFT BACK INTO THE
CENTRAL/NRN PENINSULA WHERE IT WILL REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING OVERHEAD...THE H85-H50 STEERING FLOW
WILL BE QUITE WEAK...GENERALLY AOB 10KTS...WHILE ANY MEANINGFUL
MID/UPR LVL IMPULSES THAT MIGHT PUSH PRECIP CHANCES ABV THE 50PCT
MARK WILL BE BLOCKED OUT. WHILE WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW BOTH SEA
BREEZES TO MAKE GOOD INLAND PENETRATION...THE RESULTING SLOW STORM
MOTION WILL FURTHER LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE. POPS DIMINISHING TO AOB
40PCT ON FRI...THEN AOB 30PCT THRU THE WEEKEND.
GFS/ECWMF MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF DVLPG OVER THE
ERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS
BACK INTO THE SRN PENINSULA AND ALLOW A W/SWRLY FLOW PATTERN TO
RDVLP ACRS CENTRAL FL...SHIFTING THE CONCENTRATION OF DIURNAL
PRECIP BACK TO THE EAST.
MAX/MIN TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG THRU THE PD...BUT NOT BY MORE
THAN 2-3F. AFTN READINGS IN THE U80S/L90S...MRNG READINGS IN THE
L/M70S.
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY REDUCE VSBYS ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS
(VRB/FPR/SUA) THROUGH 12Z IN VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS AND CALM
WIND. SEA BREEZE SHOULD SPARK ISOLD/SCT TSRA 17Z-19Z NEAR THE
COAST THEN SPREAD INLAND. HIGHEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR 21Z-24Z WITH SOME PUSH BACK TO THE COAST NORTH OF THE
CAPE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SURFACE
RIDGE IN THE VICINITY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST
NEAR 10 KNOTS BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. OTHERWISE VARIABLE WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SYNOPTIC S/SW
FLOW THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
DIMINISHES. MAIN MARINE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE STORMS
THAT PRODUCE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS. THESE SHOULD OCCUR
MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
DAYTIME HEATING STORMS OVER THE MAINLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC.
THU-SUN...
WEAK SFC/BNDRY LYR PGRAD THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS LIFTS NWD FROM THE FL STRAITS INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT WITH A PREVAILING LIGHT TO GENTLE
SERLY BREEZE KEEPING SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 91 74 92 76 / 30 30 40 20
MCO 93 75 94 75 / 50 30 40 30
MLB 89 74 90 75 / 40 20 50 20
VRB 90 72 91 74 / 40 20 50 20
LEE 93 76 94 77 / 40 30 40 30
SFB 93 76 95 77 / 40 30 40 30
ORL 93 77 95 77 / 50 30 40 30
FPR 90 73 90 73 / 40 20 50 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
124 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A BACK EDGE TO THE RAIN CHANCES
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS BEFORE THE
THREAT EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. POPS/WEATHER HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
REFLECT THIS TREND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TI MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT
THOUGH...ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD NEAR THE TN BORDER AND
PARTS OF THE VA BORDER. SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER
PARTS OF BELL COUNTY BUT RAIN GAGES NEAR MIDDLESBORO SUGGEST THE
RADAR ESTIMATES ARE OVERDONE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON OBSERVATION AND RADAR TRENDS.
EARLIER SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS HAVE STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA AND WARM AIR AND ASSOCIATED
RATHER STABLE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 400 AND 500 MB CONTINUES TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR TO CONVECTION DESPITE OTHER FAVORABLE PARAMETERS.
CONVECTION NEAR THE TN BORDER SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE RATHER WIDESPREAD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN EVENT WHERE IT OCCURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
STORMS CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME ORGANIZING. UPDRAFTS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE ABLE TO MUSTER ENOUGH STRENGTH TO OVERCOME SOME WARM AIR
BETWEEN 400 AND 500 MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW THIS WARM LAYER
GOING AWAY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT INTO THE EVENING...BUT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DWINDLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
STORMS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER EAST KENTUCKY DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...BUT BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUDS AND
STORMS SHOULD RESPOND TO THIS AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
IGNITE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR HAS BEEN ADAMANT THAT
STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST OVER OUR AREA...BUT LATEST RAP
MAKES A LITTLE MORE SENSE CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT. IT DEVELOPS
CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND THEN TO OUR NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH THE
FRONT. THIS CONVECTION THEN MOVES OVER US INTO THE EVENING...WITH
THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION LOOKING TO TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE
ACTIVITY. FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION AND DID LOWER POPS
A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH BASED ON MODEL DATA. WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUD
COVER MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE AGAIN...BUT MODELS INDICATE STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY WITH ADEQUATE CAPE TO POP OFF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AS TEMPS RISE AGAIN
INTO THE 80S. THIS THREAT WILL END QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF WAS COMING MUCH MORE INTO LINE WITH
THE GFS MODEL...WITH A DRY START TO THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
CONSENSUS VIEW IS NOW FOR A VIGOROUS AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SOUTHERN CANADA
AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE
AT ITS MOST POTENT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...AS IT DIPS SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK NEXT
WEEK. THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH
THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN LENDING ITSELF TO MORE MOIST AND ACTIVE
PERIOD AND RAIN CHANCES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE COOLER
DAY TIME HIGHS OCCURRING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THE START OF THE PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE MORE WARM AND HUMID.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WORK SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TAF SITES. HAVE INCLUDED
AN HOUR WINDOW OF PREVAILING SHOWERS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
THE THREAT WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 11Z. THEN VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
349 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LOTS TO LOOK AT THIS MORNING STARTING ALOFT...LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD
ON THE IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ADVANCING SOUTHWARD IN THE 500MB
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS CLOUD COVER ORIGINATED FROM CONVECTION
FIRING OFF ON A COOL FRONT WHICH WAS DRAPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE DIGITAL
GRIDS TO SHOW THIS ADVANCING CLOUD SHIELD WHICH SHOULD THIN OUT
LATER THIS MORNING.
ALSO THIS MORNING...LCH RADAR SHOWED CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN CAMERON AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WITH AREA SOUNDING PROFILES UP
OVER 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS
DISSIPATING AS IT REACHED LAND.
TODAY EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND THIN
OUT SOME AS IT MAKES IT WAY DOWN INTO THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION. AS
LAND HEATS UP ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS....WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
CONVECTION BEGIN TO FIRE ON LAND MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...BOTH THE WRF LOCAL MODEL AND THE HRRR SHOW
AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD TO SOME OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AREAS OF LOUISIANA...TO A LESSER DEGREE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. WILL GO WITH LOWEST POPS INLAND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...HOWEVER
MOSTLY 20 PERCENT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
WHERE HIGHER POPS WILL BE FOUND.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY NOT GET FURTHER THAN NORTHERN LOUISIANA BEFORE
WASHING OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY OUR REGION WILL
STAY IN A COL BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF
US...AND HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF US.
IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS COL...PRETTY MUCH EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING...
SEABREEZE...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO DISTRIBUTE THE RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND...MAY BEGIN TO SEE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM NORTH TEXAS BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. SO
EXPECT...LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOR MOST OF US...HOT DAYS AND WARM NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. SOME MAY GET LUCKY ENOUGH TO GET SOME RAIN COOLED
AIR...BUT MOST WILL LIKELY JUST STAY ON THE DRIER SIDE AS WE GET
INTO THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE LOWER END OF THE SCALE THROUGH THE 5 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TREND AS WELL WITH
LOWER HEIGHTS. LATE NIGHT CONVECTION 20NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE BUT MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 92 75 90 75 / 20 10 30 10
KBPT 92 75 91 75 / 20 10 30 10
KAEX 94 74 93 73 / 20 10 30 10
KLFT 92 74 91 74 / 30 10 40 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1209 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT DURING BRIEF
PERIODS OF TSRA AFTER 16Z. KHUM MAY BE IMPACTED BY SHRA/TSRA PRIOR
TO 14Z AS COASTAL CONVECTION LINGERS ALONG THE TERREBONNE PARISH
COAST. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD WARRANT PROB30 GROUPINGS AT THIS
TIME. 24/RR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROTRUDE FURTHER SOUTH AS IT PROGRESSES EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...
MOISTURE HAS BEEN BACK ON THE INCREASE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
THIS MORNING/S AT LIX SHOWED A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS VALUE COULD BE NEAR 2 INCHES
BY THE 00Z FLIGHT. SO ITS NO SURPRISE THAT QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED TODAY. THE HRRR HAS DONE A PRETTY DECENT JOB OF
INITIALIZING AND KEEPING UP WITH THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ITS
DEPICTION OF DIMINISHING ACTIVITY BY SUNSET AGREES WELL WITH TYPICAL
EXPECTATIONS OF STORM DISSIPATION WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY SAG CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE AREA AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE
CWA BUT WILL BE IN A NEARLY INDISCERNIBLE STATE. LOCAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE VERY DIFFERENT
FROM DAY TO DAY. DAYTIME POPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 30-50
PERCENT WITH A PEAK OF 60 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. NOCTURNAL OFFSHORE
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.
MEFFER
AVIATION...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR...CONVECTION
WILL PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AS THEY AFFECT TERMINALS. CARRYING
VCTS WITH TEMPO IFR AS APPROPRIATE OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE APPROACH SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE OVERNIGHT...WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. 35
MARINE...
A BRIEF NOCTURNAL MAX OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LA AND MS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. OTHERWISE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 35
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 71 92 72 93 / 20 60 20 40
BTR 73 92 74 93 / 10 50 20 40
ASD 74 92 75 93 / 20 60 20 40
MSY 76 91 77 92 / 10 50 20 40
GPT 77 91 76 93 / 20 50 20 40
PQL 73 91 74 93 / 30 50 20 40
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1120 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS MADE SLOW BUT DESCENT PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS LATE THIS EVENING AND IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM EFFECTING
THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS.
DIFFICULT TERMINAL FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST AS THE CONVECTION HAS
SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE COLD
POOL HAS OUT RUN THE TRUE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS STILL LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. AN EXTRAPOLATION
OF THE COLD POOL SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION COULD BE INTO THE
TXK/ELD TERMINALS BY 08Z IF THE CONVECTION CAN SURVIVE AS IT MOVES
SOUTH AND EAST.
FEEL LIKE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO GET CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE
SHV/MLU TERMINALS WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE...PERHAPS A LITTLE EARLIER
AT THE MLU TERMINAL AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE
MLU TERMINAL DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS ON WED AND KEPT MENTION
OUT OF THE SHV TERMINAL UNTIL AFTERNOON. HEATING AND REMNANT
BOUNDARIES WILL BE KEY TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON WED AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VCTS AT THE
TYR/GGG TERMINALS AS WELL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE CONVECTION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0245Z...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE...INTO SRN OK...AND INTO NRN AR NEWD TOWARDS THE
BOOTHEEL OF MO. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND HAVE
ALSO PRODUCED SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST THIS COMPLEX WILL PROBABLY BRUSH OUR MOST NRN
COUNTIES IN SE OK/SW AR...BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN N OF THE CWA
THROUGH 09/06Z. LATEST HRRR INDICATES CONVECTION WILL MOVE S INTO
THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS MAINLY AFFECTING THE NE HALF
OF THE AREA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WWD WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE NLY HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA.
HAVE TWEAKED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR. MINOR
OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO MOST OF THE OTHER GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
OBS. MIN TEMP FCST FOR TONIGHT WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 74 94 73 94 73 / 20 30 20 20 20
MLU 73 92 72 92 72 / 30 50 30 30 30
DEQ 70 91 71 92 70 / 30 30 30 30 20
TXK 75 91 72 93 72 / 30 30 30 30 20
ELD 73 92 71 91 71 / 40 50 30 30 30
TYR 76 94 73 93 72 / 10 20 20 10 10
GGG 74 93 72 94 72 / 10 30 20 10 10
LFK 75 94 72 92 71 / 10 20 10 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
353 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU THE TROF BROUGHT
SHRA AND SOME TSRA TO MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LAST NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HRS. THAT WAVE IS NOW E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM...THERE
ARE A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES...ONE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AND THE OTHER JUST
TO THE E IN NRN ONTARIO. NEITHER ARE AS STRONG AS THE ONE THAT
AFFECTED THE AREA EARLIER TODAY. THE WAVE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG IS THE
STRONGER OF THE TWO AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER HERE
TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED EARLIER TODAY...
CLOUDS HAVE HELD TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A VERY COOL DAY FOR EARLY JULY STANDARDS. AS OF 19Z...
READINGS WERE STILL ONLY HOVERING AROUND 50F NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND
AROUND 60/LWR 60S ACROSS SCNTRL UPPER MI. SO FAR...TEMP HAS ONLY
REACHED 54F HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP FOR TODAY IS
60F. IF LOW STRATUS HANGS AROUND THRU SUNSET...THAT RECORD WILL
FALL. WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN TO ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE FROM NE MN INTO
NRN WI...BUILD UP OF A LITTLE INSTABILITY UNDER COOL CYCLONIC NW
FLOW COMBINED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED -SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
TO DEVELOP. THOSE SHRA HAVE BEEN BRUSHING MENOMINEE COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...ISOLD -SHRA/PATCHY -DZ HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY.
ISOLD -SHRA MAY LINGER NEAR THE WI/MI BORDER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HRS. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NW. ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVES WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES DURING THE NIGHT
WHEN INSTABILITY IS DIMINISHING TOWARD DIURNAL MIN...EXPECT SOME
SHRA TO PERSIST NEAR THE TRACK OF THE WAVES...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE
AFORMENTIONED STRONGER WRN WAVE. THIS SHOULD PUT BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD/SCT SHRA ROUGHLY OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. SINCE SHORTWAVE
IS WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHTS WAVE...MUCAPE IS UNDER 100J/KG...
SHOWALTER INDEX IS ABOVE 0 AND NO TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED WITH WAVE SO
FAR THIS AFTN...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER TONIGHT.
ISOLD -SHRA MAY LINGER THRU WED MORNING WITH WEAK TRAILING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH SOLID HEIGHT RISES TAKING OVER DURING THE DAY
(12HR 500MB HEIGHTS RISE 70-90M) ALONG WITH COLUMN DRYING...EXPECT A
DRYING TREND WED. THERE MAY BE A FEW AFTN -SHRA OVER THE SCNTRL AS
LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE TRIES TO MOVE INLAND...SO ISOLD -SHRA
MENTION WAS LINGERED INTO THE AFTN IN THAT AREA. AS OPPOSED TO
TODAY...EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP WED UNDER DRYING/HEIGHT
RISES. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS TOWARD 70F INLAND. WHERE WINDS ARE
ONSHORE THRU THE DAY...TEMPS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT GET OUT OF
THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
THU/THU NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
WHILE A SFC RIDGE SLOWLY EXITS THE CWA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA.
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PRETTY WEAK AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ON FRI
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. BEST
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WRN
CWA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT BETTER...RESULTING IN GREATER
INSTABILITY. MUCAPES UP TO 400J/KG AND 30KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT...AND WITH GREATER MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRECIP
CHANCES ARE HIGHER THAN FRI. IF ENOUGH CLEARING CAN OCCUR BEHIND
THIS ACTIVITY...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP /PRIMARILY OVER SCENTRAL
UPPER MI/ ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS
GENERALLY SHOW AROUND 1500J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING ACROSS SCENTRAL
UPPER MI WITH AROUND 40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. WHILE IT IS
IMPORTANT TO STATE THAT SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON SAT.
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...ALONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS...TO
SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS...BUT DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
STRUGGLE TO CONSISTENTLY HANDLE THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW
AS IT MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL AS 850MB TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS
3C...WITH SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EVEN POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
ALL TERMINALS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DISTURBANCE DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER LAKES MAY BRING SOME -SHRA TO KIWD/KCMX EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
LIGHTER WINDS WILL REMAIN...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC...WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...WILL EXIT EAST
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. LOOK FOR THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY
EXITING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
OVER HUDSON BAY...AND ACROSS ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
TROUGH TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THAT SHOULD
DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
303 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU THE TROF BROUGHT
SHRA AND SOME TSRA TO MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LAST NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HRS. THAT WAVE IS NOW E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM...THERE
ARE A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES...ONE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AND THE OTHER JUST
TO THE E IN NRN ONTARIO. NEITHER ARE AS STRONG AS THE ONE THAT
AFFECTED THE AREA EARLIER TODAY. THE WAVE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG IS THE
STRONGER OF THE TWO AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER HERE
TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED EARLIER TODAY...
CLOUDS HAVE HELD TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A VERY COOL DAY FOR EARLY JULY STANDARDS. AS OF 19Z...
READINGS WERE STILL ONLY HOVERING AROUND 50F NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND
AROUND 60/LWR 60S ACROSS SCNTRL UPPER MI. SO FAR...TEMP HAS ONLY
REACHED 54F HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP FOR TODAY IS
60F. IF LOW STRATUS HANGS AROUND THRU SUNSET...THAT RECORD WILL
FALL. WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN TO ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE FROM NE MN INTO
NRN WI...BUILD UP OF A LITTLE INSTABILITY UNDER COOL CYCLONIC NW
FLOW COMBINED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED -SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
TO DEVELOP. THOSE SHRA HAVE BEEN BRUSHING MENOMINEE COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...ISOLD -SHRA/PATCHY -DZ HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY.
ISOLD -SHRA MAY LINGER NEAR THE WI/MI BORDER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HRS. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NW. ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVES WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES DURING THE NIGHT
WHEN INSTABILITY IS DIMINISHING TOWARD DIURNAL MIN...EXPECT SOME
SHRA TO PERSIST NEAR THE TRACK OF THE WAVES...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE
AFORMENTIONED STRONGER WRN WAVE. THIS SHOULD PUT BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD/SCT SHRA ROUGHLY OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. SINCE SHORTWAVE
IS WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHTS WAVE...MUCAPE IS UNDER 100J/KG...
SHOWALTER INDEX IS ABOVE 0 AND NO TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED WITH WAVE SO
FAR THIS AFTN...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER TONIGHT.
ISOLD -SHRA MAY LINGER THRU WED MORNING WITH WEAK TRAILING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH SOLID HEIGHT RISES TAKING OVER DURING THE DAY
(12HR 500MB HEIGHTS RISE 70-90M) ALONG WITH COLUMN DRYING...EXPECT A
DRYING TREND WED. THERE MAY BE A FEW AFTN -SHRA OVER THE SCNTRL AS
LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE TRIES TO MOVE INLAND...SO ISOLD -SHRA
MENTION WAS LINGERED INTO THE AFTN IN THAT AREA. AS OPPOSED TO
TODAY...EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP WED UNDER DRYING/HEIGHT
RISES. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS TOWARD 70F INLAND. WHERE WINDS ARE
ONSHORE THRU THE DAY...TEMPS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT GET OUT OF
THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
THU/THU NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
WHILE A SFC RIDGE SLOWLY EXITS THE CWA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA.
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PRETTY WEAK AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ON FRI
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. BEST
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WRN
CWA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT BETTER...RESULTING IN GREATER
INSTABILITY. MUCAPES UP TO 400J/KG AND 30KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT...AND WITH GREATER MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRECIP
CHANCES ARE HIGHER THAN FRI. IF ENOUGH CLEARING CAN OCCUR BEHIND
THIS ACTIVITY...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP /PRIMARILY OVER SCENTRAL
UPPER MI/ ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS
GENERALLY SHOW AROUND 1500J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING ACROSS SCENTRAL
UPPER MI WITH AROUND 40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. WHILE IT IS
IMPORTANT TO STATE THAT SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON SAT.
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...ALONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS...TO
SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS...BUT DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
STRUGGLE TO CONSISTENTLY HANDLE THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW
AS IT MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL AS 850MB TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS
3C...WITH SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EVEN POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
ALL TERMINALS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DISTURBANCE DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER LAKES MAY BRING SOME -SHRA TO KIWD/KCMX EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY CROSSES
LAKE SUPERIOR. COULD SEE DENSE FOG AT TIMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AS SOUTH WINDS TRANSPORT MORE HUMID AIR
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1216 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU THE TROF BROUGHT
SHRA AND SOME TSRA TO MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LAST NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HRS. THAT WAVE IS NOW E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM...THERE
ARE A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES...ONE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AND THE OTHER JUST
TO THE E IN NRN ONTARIO. NEITHER ARE AS STRONG AS THE ONE THAT
AFFECTED THE AREA EARLIER TODAY. THE WAVE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG IS THE
STRONGER OF THE TWO AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER HERE
TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED EARLIER TODAY...
CLOUDS HAVE HELD TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A VERY COOL DAY FOR EARLY JULY STANDARDS. AS OF 19Z...
READINGS WERE STILL ONLY HOVERING AROUND 50F NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND
AROUND 60/LWR 60S ACROSS SCNTRL UPPER MI. SO FAR...TEMP HAS ONLY
REACHED 54F HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP FOR TODAY IS
60F. IF LOW STRATUS HANGS AROUND THRU SUNSET...THAT RECORD WILL
FALL. WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN TO ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE FROM NE MN INTO
NRN WI...BUILD UP OF A LITTLE INSTABILITY UNDER COOL CYCLONIC NW
FLOW COMBINED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED -SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
TO DEVELOP. THOSE SHRA HAVE BEEN BRUSHING MENOMINEE COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...ISOLD -SHRA/PATCHY -DZ HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY.
ISOLD -SHRA MAY LINGER NEAR THE WI/MI BORDER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HRS. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NW. ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVES WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES DURING THE NIGHT
WHEN INSTABILITY IS DIMINISHING TOWARD DIURNAL MIN...EXPECT SOME
SHRA TO PERSIST NEAR THE TRACK OF THE WAVES...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE
AFORMENTIONED STRONGER WRN WAVE. THIS SHOULD PUT BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD/SCT SHRA ROUGHLY OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. SINCE SHORTWAVE
IS WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHTS WAVE...MUCAPE IS UNDER 100J/KG...
SHOWALTER INDEX IS ABOVE 0 AND NO TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED WITH WAVE SO
FAR THIS AFTN...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER TONIGHT.
ISOLD -SHRA MAY LINGER THRU WED MORNING WITH WEAK TRAILING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH SOLID HEIGHT RISES TAKING OVER DURING THE DAY
(12HR 500MB HEIGHTS RISE 70-90M) ALONG WITH COLUMN DRYING...EXPECT A
DRYING TREND WED. THERE MAY BE A FEW AFTN -SHRA OVER THE SCNTRL AS
LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE TRIES TO MOVE INLAND...SO ISOLD -SHRA
MENTION WAS LINGERED INTO THE AFTN IN THAT AREA. AS OPPOSED TO
TODAY...EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP WED UNDER DRYING/HEIGHT
RISES. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS TOWARD 70F INLAND. WHERE WINDS ARE
ONSHORE THRU THE DAY...TEMPS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT GET OUT OF
THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
LARGE SCALE PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OCCURRING THIS TIME
LAST WEEK. TROUGHING TO START THE WEEK THEN RELAXING HEIGHTS MORE
ZONAL FLOW LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SEEMS THIS PATTERN CHANGES
BACK TO TROUGHING QUICKER THOUGH WITH ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH TRENDING BACK
TO TROUGHING BY SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
RAIN CHANCES OCCUR AS THE FLOW GOES ZONAL...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MAIN COLD FROPA OCCURS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. DPROG/DT...SEEING HOW THE MODELS ARE CHANGING OVER THEIR
RECENT RUNS...INDICATES STRONG CONSISTENCY FM THE MODELS IN MASS
FIELDS /MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MSLP/ THROUGH SATURDAY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA ON SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS COOLEST ON WED NIGHT WITH PWATS AROUND 50 PCT OF NORMAL
BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS. FAVORED COLD SPOTS INTERIOR MAY SEE LOWS
AROUND 40 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...READINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50. WARMER NIGHT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY AROUND
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH ONLY LOCAL COOLING NEAR IMMEDIATE
GREAT LAKES SHORES.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO
WORK ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A MORE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF OREGON SLIDES ACROSS
ON FRIDAY. STRONGER WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS MANTIOBA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS SPLIT IN TWO AREAS...STRONGEST
CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN TROUGH. INSTABILITY AXIS BOTH AT SFC AND ALOFT
ELEVATED LAGS BOTH WAVES SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG STORMS LATER THU
NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THETA-E ADVECTION RAMPS UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SUPPORT GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. INSTABILITY REMAINS ONLY MARGINAL WITH
200-400J/KG OF 1-6KM MUCAPE AS GREATEST MLCAPE AND 1-6KM MUCAPE
SETTLES MORE SOUTH INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAN EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE UP TO 30 KTS FRIDAY
NIGHT...SO CANNOT COUNT OUT SOME STRONGER STORMS. SEVERE RISK DOES
APPEAR PRETTY MARGINAL.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 40+ KTS BY SATURDAY AFTN. 12Z ECMWF
INDICATES MORE MLCAPE THAN EARLIER RUNS...CENTERED OVER CNTRL UPR
MICHIGAN IN THE AFTN. LOOKS AS IF THE COLD FRONT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER. AS LONG AS THE SHRA/TSRA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED
COOLING/STABILIZING AFFECTS ARE OUT OF THE WAY IN TIME...COULD SEE
ISOLD STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OVR CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTN
IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE. H7 WINDS ARE MORE WESTERLY. ATTM BASED
ON EXPECTED POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND A MORE WEST TO EAST MEAN
STORM MOTION...LOOKS LIKE GREATEST RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE
OVER SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. WHATEVER SHRA/TSRA ARE AROUND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SHOULD DIMINISH/END LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODEL CONSISTENCY BECOMES MORE JUMPY SUNDAY/MONDAY...BUT LAST COUPLE
RUNS OF EACH MODEL IS HEADING TOWARD MORE TROUGHING/COOLER WEATHER.
PRIMARY ISSUE IS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE
ON LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RECENT RUNS OF GEM-NH STILL HANGING ON TO THIS IDEA WHILE 06Z GFS
WAS THE FIRST GFS RUN SINCE JULY 7/12Z TO SHOW SIMILAR SOLN. 12Z GFS
DOES NOT HAVE IT AGAIN. ECMWF SHOWED STRONGER LOW ON THE JULY 6/12Z
RUN...BUT HAS SINCE BACKED AWAY.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TREND IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR A RETURN TO
TROUGHING AND BLO NORMAL TEMPS...LIKELY OVER 20 DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. CORE OF COOLEST AIR AT H85 OVER
MANITOBA AND ONTARIO BOTTOMS OUT AROUND 0C ON THE ECMWF AND AROUND
+2C ON THE GFS ON MONDAY. UPPER LOW CENTER SETTLES ACROSS GREAT
LAKES BY NEXT TUESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS STAYING BLO +5C AND PLENTY OF
H85-H7 MOISTURE. SFC LOW FORECAST TO BE EAST OF LK SUPERIOR REGION...
SO NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP UPPER GREAT LAKES VERY COOL. RECORD LOW
MAXES FOR MID JULY ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT SOME
VALUES IN JULY ARE EVEN IN THE LOWER 50S. MAY SEE SOME TEMPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK COME CLOSE TO THESE LOWER READINGS. IT IS CERTAINLY WITHIN
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. CHANCES OF SEEING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE
PATTERN PRETTY HIGH...SO THAT WOULD ONLY HELP KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL
SIDE. PROBABLY GOES WITHOUT SAYING...BUT NO REAL STRETCHES OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE SEEN ANYTIME IN THE MEDIUM RANGE TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
ALL TERMINALS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DISTURBANCE DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER LAKES MAY BRING SOME -SHRA TO KIWD/KCMX EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY CROSSES
LAKE SUPERIOR. COULD SEE DENSE FOG AT TIMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AS SOUTH WINDS TRANSPORT MORE HUMID AIR
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1151 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
LOOKS A QUIET SHORT TERM WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WI ARE LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONGER COLD
ADVECTION AND OUT AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE FEATURE DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS MN AND WI. THERE IS A SECOND PV ANOMALY IN SD WITH TALLER
CUMULUS CLOUDS IN EASTERN SD AND WESTERN MN...BUT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED MUCH MORE SPARSE UP TO THIS POINT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF SMOKE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MIGHT MAKE FOR A COLORFUL SUNSET
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE IN WESTERN MN WHO ARE CLOSER TO
THE EDGE OF THE SMOKE. THE SMOKE IS BEING ADVECTED SOUTH FROM
WILDFIRES IN CANADA...MOST LIKELY FROM WHAT IS BURNING IN THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. SATELLITE SHOWED A THICK LAYER OF SMOKE IN
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN CONTINUES TO DRY FROM WHAT WAS PRESENT ON SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE
LAST COUPLE MPX SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN PWATS OF 1.25" AND 0.90"
RESPECTIVELY AND THE EARLY AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSES ARE HOVERING RIGHT
AROUND 0.75". THERE IS AN OBVIOUS REDUCTION IN SURFACE MOISTURE
TODAY...WITH DEWPOINTS COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S. NOT MUCH ELSE GOING
ON IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN FOR TOMORROW.
WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...MN/WI WILL BE OUT OF THE BEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
A RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN INTO THAT ALL TOO
FAMILIAR CONFIGURATION WE/VE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE PAST 9 MONTHS.
FOR US THAT MEANS AFTER SOME BRIEF MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK WE/LL SEE THINGS COOL OFF
SUBSTANTIALLY AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE
DETAILS... PCPN CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WARM
ADVECTION COMMENCES OVER THE AREA. IT THEN APPEARS WE/LL NEED TO
INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE TIME FRAME THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS IN THE AREA AND WE SEE
PERIODIC WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS OUR
AREA. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY
AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD BRING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER JET IS DISPLACED
SOUTHWARD... ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR COULD
CERTAINLY LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL PCPN IF WE HAVE SUFFICIENT CYCLONIC
FLOW AND EKMAN PUMPING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THINK FOG POTENTIAL IS LOW TONIGHT DUE
TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN...BUT IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT
EAU DUE TO THE RIVER NEARBY. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL
BE SMOKE INVADING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING. THIS MAY
BRING MINOR REDUCTIONS IN SFC VISIBILITY IF MIXING CAN REACH DEEP
ENOUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH MILKY SKY COVER AS THE LARGE SMOKE
PLUME FROM CANADA ADVANCES EASTWARD.
KMSP...NO MAJOR CONCERNS OTHER THAN STATED ABOVE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TS LATE. SSE WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
FRI...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTH
WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
SAT...VFR. SGT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. NORTH WIND 5 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1030 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2014
update aviation section...
.UPDATE...
Current satellite imagery and regional webcams show mix of clear
to partly cloudy skies this evening as pockets of moisture move
through the high pressure ridge covering the western states. Of
note, water vapor satellite imagery indicates that a displaced band
of the monsoonal moisture plume expected to arrive tomorrow has
already made it into east-central Idaho and produced a few light
showers near Monida Pass around 8pm. The Rapid Update Cycle (RUC)
forecast model has been the only model to pick up on this feature at
this point in time, with other models showing dry conditions from
central Idaho northward. But even the RUC paints only a minimal
chance of additional light and spotty showers along the ID/MT border
thru the overnight hours, so will continue with a dry forecast for
tonight across the region.
Main portion of the monsoonal plume currently extends from central
NV to northern OR and is beginning to show a turn to east in
response to high pressure ridge axis slowly drifting into western
MT. Forecast still on track for the main plume to move into
southwest MT tomorrow aftn and portions of central MT tomorrow
evening, bringing isolated thunderstorms with generally less than
0.1 inch of precipitation where rainfall occurs.
Waranauskas
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...High pressure will remain over Central
Montana into Wednesday when monsoonal moisture will sneak into the
region from the southwest. This increased moisture should be
enough to allow afternoon thunderstorms to develop over Southwest
Montana Wednesday afternoon. Things look to quiet down again on
Thursday with only an isolated chance of a shower over Southwest
Montana. Temperatures will largely remain unchanged day to day
with mid to upper 80s, and some 90s, across much of the region.
Winds look to remain light overall with some breeziness across the
plains Wednesday and Thursday.
Thursday night through Tuesday...Overall an upper level ridge of
high pressure will continue to reside over the Pacific Northwest
through the period. The upper level ridge will try to flatten a bit
at times...or retrograde a bit westward...however the main impact
weather-wise for our region will be warm temperatures and the chance
for a passing thunderstorm. For precipitation...confidence is
quite low in timing and amounts of any precipitation during the
extended period...thus generally kept isolated to scattered
thunderstorms over the region. Brusda
Some temperature discrepancies arise in the Monday-Tuesday time
period between the GFS and EC. Both models indicate a highly
amplified ridge persisting over the Western U.S. and Western Canada.
The EC forecasts a deeper and larger-scale upper level low
forming in the Hudson Bay and Great Lakes region...large enough to
bring cooler air into eastern and central Montana via E/NE winds.
1000-500mb thicknesses peak around 582 dm on Sunday and Monday per
the GFS with EC values around 576 dm. 850 temps on the GFS are in
the mid to upper 20s C through Monday while the EC is approximately
5 C cooler.
By Tuesday...thickness values drop to near 573 dm on the GFS and to
567-570 on the EC. Both models show a 850 mb temp drop to near 20
C. Given the lower confidence went with a blended approach on
Tuesday with highs in the low 80s. The slight cool down will likely
be short lived with model guidance pushing the mid level ridge axis
eastward into the middle/end of next week. Uttech
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0430Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period with relatively
light winds and mostly clear skies through 18Z on Wednesday
afternoon. A disturbance and some moisture from the southwest will
affect southwest Montana in the afternoon. This will bring more
clouds and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Most will have high
bases and give the potential for gusty winds and localized rainfall.
MVFR conditions expected in thunderstorms, otherwise VFR to prevail.
Some wind gusts to 20kts expected in the afternoon, expecially
around KCTB. db
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 57 91 59 89 / 0 0 20 0
CTB 55 89 55 83 / 0 0 20 10
HLN 60 93 61 93 / 0 10 20 0
BZN 53 90 55 90 / 0 20 20 10
WEY 44 82 45 81 / 0 40 30 30
DLN 57 87 55 88 / 0 30 20 20
HVR 54 93 60 88 / 0 0 20 10
LWT 55 88 59 87 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
348 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION IN BETWEEN AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVERHEAD WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW PROGGED TO SET UP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 TODAY. YESTERDAY`S VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE SMOKE PLUME STRETCHING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADIAN FIRES INTO THE DAKOTAS. IF THICK
ENOUGH...THIS COULD LIMIT TEMPS TODAY AS WELL BUT THAT IS TOUGH TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT. THE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP DO
INDICATE AN AREA OF PCPN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A QUICK MOVING IMPULSE DROPPING
THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND
SO THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP
OVER OUR WESTERN CWA AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
NOSE OF MODEST LLVL JET SHIFTS EASTWARD.
A BIT OF A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
WHILE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION BRINGS JULY MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION. ELONGATED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF IT. BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE NOCTURNAL AS THE
NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLVL JET ADVECTS EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD AID IN ELEVATED TSTMS
ACROSS THE CWA. THE SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS FRIDAY...PLACING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE KS/NEB BORDER
BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
ROUNDS OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT ANY ONE PARTICULAR PERIOD SO HAVE LEFT SMALL
POPS IN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
CONTINUOUS ACTIVITY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER
THE REGION. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 18Z ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
403 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FROM THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE AREA WITH
QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...
THE RESULTS OF THE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FROM LATE
TUESDAY ARE CONTINUING TO BE REALIZED. THREE NWS STORM SURVEY
TEAMS WILL BE OUT TODAY TO DETERMINE THE TYPE /TORNADO OR STRAIGHT
LINE/ AND STRENGTH OF WINDS IN THE MOST IMPACTED AREAS...AT THIS
TIME PLANNED FOR ONONDAGA...MADISON...AND ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NEW
YORK...AND BRADFORD TO SUSQUEHANNA COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE
SURVEYING PROCESS MAY GO BEYOND TODAY...AND MAY INCLUDE OTHER
AREAS THAT MAY BECOME APPARENT. WE MOURN THE 4 FATALITIES THAT
OCCURRED IN MADISON COUNTY.
THE SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRESSED EAST LATE MONDAY EVENING
AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. A MUCH DRIER
ATMOSPHERE IS TAKING ITS PLACE...YET STILL SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED ONCE DIURNAL HEATING GETS GOING TODAY. MODEL CAPE ONLY
ACHIEVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AS PER GFS AND RAP MODELS...BUT MORE
LIKE SEVERAL HUNDRED TO NEAR 1000 J/KG IN NAM AND ARW MODELS.
THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF 0-6KM SHEAR...AND WITH LESS
MOISTURE...LOWEST PORTION OF SOUNDING TAKES ON A INVERTED-V LOOK
TO IT WHICH WILL PROMOTE MIXING. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDER WILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO MUCH LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES /MAINLY UNDER AN INCH- AND-A-QUARTER/...THE QUESTIONABLE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AS LIFTED INDICES ONLY BARELY GET
NEGATIVE...AND THE MUCH POORER JET SUPPORT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
IN FACT...WE ARE NOW GETTING INTO THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
300MB JET INSTEAD OF THE RIGHT...UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
STILL...GIVEN SOME OF THE FACTORS ABOVE...I INCLUDED MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES.
COULD EASILY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH OR SO IN THE STRONGEST
CELLS.
WHAT ACTIVITY THAT WE GET TODAY WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON
DIURNAL HEATING...AND AS SUCH...IT WILL QUICKLY END LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF THAT HEATING AND FURTHER
ENCROACHMENT OF DRY AIR MASS. DEWPOINTS...ALREADY NOTICEABLY LOWER
TODAY COMFORT-WISE...WILL CONTINUE TO CRASH THROUGH THE 50S TONIGHT AND
EVEN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL DO THE SAME IN MOST OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
230 AM EDT UPDATE...
UPDATED TEMPS FOR THE PD TO THE LATEST BLENDED MOS GUID. HAVE LEFT
POPS OUT FOR THU DESPITE UPR TROF SWINGING THRU. LOOKS AS THOUGH
SFC HIPRES WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO SQUASH ANY DVLPG CONV ELEMENTS.
TROF MVES EWRD SLOWLY AND WILL BE CNTRD OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENG FOR FRI WITH SFC HI STILL IN PLACE. PRVS DISC BLO.
140 PM EDT UPDATE...
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW
ATTENDANT WITH THE UPPER LVL TROUGH BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. COOLER
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE PASSAGE. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE REGION FROM THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
EARLY WED MORNING THUS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION.
WED THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST AND START TO
LIFT NORTH. THE MAIN SUBSIDENCE ATTENDANT WITH THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA... THUS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
COMBINATION FROM UPPR LVL DYNAMICS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAVING
SOME INSTABILITY WED... WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNAL DRIVEN AND WHEN THE SUNSETS EXPECT SHOWERS
START TO DIMINISH. REGIONS MAY SEE SOME SUN EARLY ON... HOWEVER
EXPECT A DENSE CU DECK TO BUILD QUICKLY WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WED NIGHT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ENDING WHAT SHOWERS STILL LINGER.
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE WEST WHICH WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF BEAUTIFUL DAYS TO RETURN
BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
70S AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S. EACH NIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THURS AND FRI WILL BE TRANQUIL WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 AM EDT UPDATE...LTL CHG TO THE XNTDD AS A BROAD TROF SLOWLY
DVLPS THRU THE PD...GRADUALLY INCRSG THE CHANCE FOR CONV. DAYTIME
HI/S WILL AVG ABV NRML WITH WEAK WAA CONTG INTO TUE. LOWS NEAR
NRML...ESP EARLY. PRVS DISC BLO.
3 PM UPDATE... HIPRES WL BE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE EXTNDD WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO KICK IN DRG THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SLGT CHC THUNDER DRG THE AFTN HRS
AS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP TO OUR WEST SUN MRNG. AS FNT APPRCHS DRG
THE DAY ON SUNDAY POPS WL INCRS TO HICHC AND WITH MULTIPLE WVS
POSSIBLY RIDING UP ALONG BNDRY THRU EARLY IN THE WEEK THE CHC FOR
THUNDER CONTS UNTIL FROPA OCCURS BY TUE MRNG. TEMPS WL MODERATE TO
ABV NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND BFR DROPPING OFF TO NR NORMAL FOLLOWING
FROPA. HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH JUST A FEW TWEEKS
FOR COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT HAS PASSED THRU THE REGION AND IS NOW FLWD BY CAA AND
DRIER AIR. SOME LGT FOG PSBLE BUT VFR SHD PREVAIL OVRNGT. AFT
SUNRISE...XPCT VFR CONDS TO CONT BUT WITH AN UPR WV AND SCNDRY FNT
PASSING THRU...SOME CONV PSBL IN THE LATE AFTN. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
IN THE FCST FOR NOW...BUT WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE NEXT ISSUANCE.
VFR CONTS THRU THE END OF THE PD.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT PREDAWN VALLEY FOG KELM.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN SHRA AND TSRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM/KAH
LONG TERM...DGM/PVN
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1138 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE WATCH. ADDITIONAL STRONG...BUT SUB SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/
CURRENTLY...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLIER MCS KICKED OFF
ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS THAT ARE NOW MOVING OFF INTO ALABAMA. OTRW
THINGS ARE FAIRLY QUIET WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN SLOWLY RECOVERING ACROSS THE
NORTH AS TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH AS THE FRONT
MOVES IN. THE 16Z HRRR DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO WITH CONVECTION
PUSHING SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NORTH
OF THE MS/TN BORDER WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONGER WHICH WILL
AID STORM ORGANIZATION. CURRENT HWO HANDLES THIS WELL. RAIN
CHANCE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI OR JUST TO THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THERE WILL
BE SCT-NUMEROUS STORMS OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY WED AFTERNOON AND
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A
PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
WITH WARMING TEMPS. LOW SUMMERTIME POPS. DID NOT GET AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE MEX WITH RESPECT TO HIGH TEMPS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PUSH ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER BY TUESDAY.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AFFECTING TUP. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS AND A TEMPO FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR
MEM/MKL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF VCTS AT
MEM/TUP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AT MKL FOR PATCHY FOG AND TUP WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1109 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE WATCH. ADDITIONAL STRONG...BUT SUB SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/
CURRENTLY...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLIER MCS KICKED OFF
ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS THAT ARE NOW MOVING OFF INTO ALABAMA. OTRW
THINGS ARE FAIRLY QUIET WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN SLOWLY RECOVERING ACROSS THE
NORTH AS TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH AS THE FRONT
MOVES IN. THE 16Z HRRR DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO WITH CONVECTION
PUSHING SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NORTH
OF THE MS/TN BORDER WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONGER WHICH WILL
AID STORM ORGANIZATION. CURRENT HWO HANDLES THIS WELL. RAIN
CHANCE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI OR JUST TO THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THERE WILL
BE SCT-NUMEROUS STORMS OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY WED AFTERNOON AND
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A
PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
WITH WARMING TEMPS. LOW SUMMERTIME POPS. DID NOT GET AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE MEX WITH RESPECT TO HIGH TEMPS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PUSH ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER BY TUESDAY.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BACK THROUGH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BASED ON LATEST SHORT
TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA AT TAF
SITES TO INCLUDE VCTS AND BEST CHANCES FOR TEMPOS AT JBR BETWEEN
09/01-03Z...MKL BETWEEN 09/00-02Z...MEM BETWEEN 09/01-03Z...AND
TUP BETWEEN 09/04-06Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT
MKL BETWEEN 09/09-13Z. ADDITIONAL VCTS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AT
MEM/TUP MAINLY AFTER 09/18Z. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER NORTHWEST/NORTH WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
331 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY...BEFORE DRIFTING INTO NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WEAK COOL FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE SE
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. RESIDUAL AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE STRUNG OUT
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR ADDED
CONVECTION ESPCLY OVER THE FAR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN
BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER IFFY AS
TO EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN
CLOUDS/SHRA AROUND THIS MORNING AND THEN DRYING ALOFT PER VAPOR
LOOP FROM THE NW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST
LIFT OVER THE SOUTH/SE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE BETTER HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL BACKED FLOW COINCIDES WITH THE RIBBON OF LEFTOVER PRE-
FRONTAL MOISTURE. THIS LOOKS TO POSSIBLY INIT ALONG THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE PER FORECAST 85H THETA-E RIDGING AND
PERHAPS ALONG THE GRADIENT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM WESTERN
CLOUDS TO STRONGER HEATING OUT EAST. WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAKER...BUT
STILL UNIDIRECTIONAL THIS AFTERNOON AS SUPPORT ALOFT LACKING...
ALTHOUGH LAPSES GIVEN HEATING REMAIN STEEP...WHILE CAPES PUSH
1500-2000 J/KG PIEDMONT PROVIDED ENOUGH INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS SUPPORTS INCREASING CHANCE POPS TO SOME DEGREE EASTERN
HALF THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE OLD OUTFLOW
MAY LEAD TO MORE STORM CLUSTERS...PER LATEST HRRR/HIRES-ARW OUTPUT
EARLY BEFORE DRYING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WEST WINDS WIN OUT. THUS
WILL KEEP SOME SEVERE MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS
POPS MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER PENDING INSTABILITY LATER ON.
HIGHS A BIT TRICKY GIVEN EXTENSIVE EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND SLIGHT
COOLING ALOFT. HOWEVER APPEARS ENOUGH OF A WEST WIND TO HELP SCOUR
CLOUDS OUT OF THE EAST...WITH SOME BREAKS ESPCLY NW SO UPPED TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES BUT OVERALL STILL AOB MOS OUTSIDE OF THE SE.
BOUNDARY SINKS ACROSS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT BUT MAY
BE SLOWER THAN GUIDANCE GIVEN A WEAK WAVE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW SHRA/TSRA BANDS GOING OVER THE FAR SOUTH/SE
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH GRADUAL DRYING TAKING PLACE OVER THE NW
THIRD WHERE EVEN DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL A BIT. THEREFORE STAYED WITH
CHANCE POPS MAINLY SE OF A LYH TO HLX LINE THIS EVENING AND CUT TO JUST
ISOLATED MENTION FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE. OTRW PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH MORE CLEARING WORKING IN ACROSS THE NW LATE WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW A RANGE IN LOWS FROM THE SLIGHTLY COOLER UPPER 50S/LOW 60S NW TO
THE STILL MUGGY MID/UPPER 60S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND
WEST...EVENTUALLY BUCKLING BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY...AS A SURFACE REFLECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVES WILL BRING SHOWERS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...PARTICULARLY THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY...AND TO
SOUTHSIDE FRIDAY. INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITIES...STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY EVENING WITH LOSE OF
HEATING AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTING EAST. LESS ACTIVITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.
BEING MOSTLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVING AN EASTERLY FLOW AND
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THURSDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL. EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS FRIDAY BUT MORE SUN IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...
DAILY THREAT OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE IN THE OFFING DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES IN RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA.
FIRST WAVE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH SECOND WAVE ON SUNDAY...TO BE
FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE IN MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME
AS EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES AND RETROGRESSES
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA.
DEEPENING VERY BROAD UPPER TROF/CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT A GOOD
PUSH OF UNUSUALLY COOL AIR INTO THE MID APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WITH THE COOLEST
PORTION OF THE AIRMASS TO ARRIVE JUST OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...ON WEDNESDAY.
AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT RELATIVELY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN AIRMASS. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...BUT WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BEGIN TRENDING DOWNWARD ABOUT 5F DAILY BEGINNING TUESDAY AS
LEADING EDGE OF SUCCESSIVE WAVES OF COOLER AIR BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON
THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
COMMS ISSUES REMAIN AT KDAN DESPITE AN INTERMITTENT RETURN OF
OBSERVATION DATA. AMD NOT SKED CONTINUED IN THE TAF.
LINGERING CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR SW ATTM WITH SOME OF
THIS COVERAGE STARTING TO PUSH BACK INTO THE KBLF VICINITY. LATEST
SHORT TERM MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR EAST TO ADVANCE ADDED SHRA
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LATEST HRRR MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TAKING CLUSTERS
OF SHRA/TSRA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH DAWN. MOST OTHER
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE MAJORITY ACROSS THE FAR WEST/SW WITH SHRA
WEAKENING UPON HEADING EAST. GIVEN TRENDS APPEARS SOME OF THIS
COVERAGE LIKELY TO REACH KBCB/KROA AND AFFECT KBLF AND PERHAPS
KLWB MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS LIKELY TO KEEP MVFR/OCNL IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SE WVA CORRIDOR WITH CIGS LOWERING HEADING EAST
BUT STILL MAINLY VFR ELSW DESPITE SOME SHOWERS AROUND. APPEARS
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT FOG BUT KEPT IN SPOTS WITH SHRA MOVING THROUGH AS
VSBYS MAY DROP ONCE THE RAIN PASSES A TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER
KEPT KLWB ABOVE LIFR FOR NOW GIVEN CURRENT CLOUDY TRENDS.
FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF
MVFR TO VFR CIGS TO START THE MORNING BEFORE THINGS SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO VFR MOST SPOTS BY MIDDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL
COMBINE WITH OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS STORMS. HOWEVER CANT TOTALLY
RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING BLUE RIDGE GIVEN
MOISTURE AND ONSET OF HEATING. THUS GOING WITH A VCTS/VCSH FOR
MOST SPOTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE MORE ISOLATED OVER
THE NW. DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD START TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR LESS CONVECTION NW THIRD WHERE WILL CUT OUT
PRECIP MENTION FROM KROA AND POINTS NW BY MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER AND MORE WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH A STEADY WEST/SW COMPONENT AT 5-15 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING JUST TO THE SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH IMPULSES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DIURNAL TRENDS
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY FOR KDAN/KLYH ON THURSDAY BUT
LIKELY LESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTH. MOISTURE
AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. OTRW PATCHY FOG RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE LATE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS ESPCLY
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND WHERE EARLIER AFTERNOON RAINFALL OCCURRED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGE CONTINUES WITH KDAN ASOS NOT TRANSMITTING.
THE FAA IS AWARE OF THE OUTAGE AND WILL BE WORKING ON IT...BUT NO
ESTIMATED TIME OF WHEN IT WILL BE WORKING AGAIN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS/WERT
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK
EQUIPMENT...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
119 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE CROSSING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 833 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KFCX 88D SHOWED COVERAGE AREA AND INTENSITY OF STORMS WEAKENING
DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THERE IS STILL SOME DEVELOPING OF
CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN FRONT IN THE UNSTABLE AIR. SHAPED POPS
TOWARDS A BLEND OF HIRESWARW...RNK WRFARW AND HRRR. WILL CONTINUE
POPS IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING LITTLE PROGRESS IN THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY AND LIMITED MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROF.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS.
AS OF 601 PM EDT TUESDAY...
UPDATED POPS FOR LATEST WSR-88D TRENDS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR LATEST OBS AND SHAPED THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
AS OF 315 PM EDT TUESDAY...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVES THAT WILL
DEEPEN THE NORTHEAST TROF. THE SECOND WAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES
THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR WERE VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THE TIMING OF A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...WHAT
WAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM AROUND PITTSBURGH TO NORTHWEST OF
CHARLESTON WV. STILL EXPECTING THIS TO REACH SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
BETWEEN 20-22Z/4-6PM.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS BROUGHT
SURFACE DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...SO CAPES
HAVE PEAKED AROUND 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...AS INDICATED WITH A CLASSIC
INVERTED V SOUNDING...DCAPE WAS A HIGH AS 1300 J/KG IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA. IF STORMS MANAGE TO GET INTO THIS
ENVIRONMENT AND OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.
WITH THE REMOVAL OF HEATING...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH...MAINLY AFTER 02Z/10PM. THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE LINE OF STORMS...EXTENDING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
EXPECTING LITTLE PROGRESS IN THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY AND LIMITED MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROF. BEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF SURFACE BASED IN STABILITY AND CONVERGENCE...PLUS ALONG ANY
OUTFLOW PRODUCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
NARROWING DOWN WHERE THIS WILL BE IS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE.
LOOKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL DEW POINTS RISING BACK UP THROUGH
THE 60S TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS. AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL
DETERMINE HOW HOT TEMPERATURES WILL GET ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHERE IT IS RAINING IN THE MORNING. FOR NOW STAYED
CLOSED TO THE MET GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...
WEAK COOL FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACTUAL SURFACE REFLECTION WILL LIKELY
BE DIFFICULT TO DEFINE CONSIDERING DIFFUSE NATURE OF FRONT...AND
CONTAMINATION FROM COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST...AND WITH SUBTLE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF
UPPER TROF...ALONG WITH GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT...SUPPORT FOR PRE- AND
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING...AND
PERHAPS THOUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
NORTHWESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
LINGERING EARLY EVENING SHOWER.
ALTHOUGH NORTHWESTERN AREAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY ON
THURSDAY...PROXIMITY OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST...AND LIMITED ADDITIONAL MOVEMENT EAST OF UPPER TROF
WARRANTS CONTINUED AT LEAST LOW THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
UPPER TROF FINALLY EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT PLACEMENT SUPPORTS
AMPLIFICATION OF SURFACE RIDGE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST WHICH ALLOWS
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER AROUND BY DAYS END INTO THE EAST. COMBINATION
OF COOLER AIR ALOFT...PLENTY OF INSOLATION...AND LIGHT UPSLOPING
AGAINST THE EASTERN FLANKS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME DEVELOPING CAP TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY EVENING.
POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
TO MAINLY 80S PIEDMONT...WITH 50S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO MAINLY
60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...
DAILY THREAT OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE IN THE OFFING DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES IN RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA.
FIRST WAVE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH SECOND WAVE ON SUNDAY...TO BE
FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE IN MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME
AS EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES AND RETROGRESSES
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA.
DEEPENING VERY BROAD UPPER TROF/CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT A GOOD
PUSH OF UNUSUALLY COOL AIR INTO THE MID APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT WITH THE COOLEST
PORTION OF THE AIRMASS TO ARRIVE JUST OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...ON WEDNESDAY.
AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT RELATIVELY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN AIRMASS. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...BUT WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BEGIN TRENDING DOWNWARD ABOUT 5F DAILY BEGINNING TUESDAY AS
LEADING EDGE OF SUCCESSIVE WAVES OF COOLER AIR BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON
THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
COMMS ISSUES REMAIN AT KDAN DESPITE AN INTERMITTENT RETURN OF
OBSERVATION DATA. AMD NOT SKED CONTINUED IN THE TAF.
LINGERING CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR SW ATTM WITH SOME OF
THIS COVERAGE STARTING TO PUSH BACK INTO THE KBLF VICINITY. LATEST
SHORT TERM MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR EAST TO ADVANCE ADDED SHRA
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LATEST HRRR MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TAKING CLUSTERS
OF SHRA/TSRA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH DAWN. MOST OTHER
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE MAJORITY ACROSS THE FAR WEST/SW WITH SHRA
WEAKENING UPON HEADING EAST. GIVEN TRENDS APPEARS SOME OF THIS
COVERAGE LIKELY TO REACH KBCB/KROA AND AFFECT KBLF AND PERHAPS
KLWB MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS LIKELY TO KEEP MVFR/OCNL IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SE WVA CORRIDOR WITH CIGS LOWERING HEADING EAST
BUT STILL MAINLY VFR ELSW DESPITE SOME SHOWERS AROUND. APPEARS
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT FOG BUT KEPT IN SPOTS WITH SHRA MOVING THROUGH AS
VSBYS MAY DROP ONCE THE RAIN PASSES A TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER
KEPT KLWB ABOVE LIFR FOR NOW GIVEN CURRENT CLOUDY TRENDS.
FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF
MVFR TO VFR CIGS TO START THE MORNING BEFORE THINGS SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO VFR MOST SPOTS BY MIDDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL
COMBINE WITH OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS STORMS. HOWEVER CANT TOTALLY
RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING BLUE RIDGE GIVEN
MOISTURE AND ONSET OF HEATING. THUS GOING WITH A VCTS/VCSH FOR
MOST SPOTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE MORE ISOLATED OVER
THE NW. DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD START TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR LESS CONVECTION NW THIRD WHERE WILL CUT OUT
PRECIP MENTION FROM KROA AND POINTS NW BY MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER AND MORE WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH A STEADY WEST/SW COMPONENT AT 5-15 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING JUST TO THE SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH IMPULSES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DIURNAL TRENDS
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY FOR KDAN/KLYH ON THURSDAY BUT
LIKELY LESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTH. MOISTURE
AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. OTRW PATCHY FOG RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE LATE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS ESPCLY
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND WHERE EARLIER AFTERNOON RAINFALL OCCURRED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 315 PM EDT TUESDAY...
COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGE CONTINUES WITH KDAN ASOS NOT TRANSMITTING.
THE FAA IS AWARE OF THE OUTAGE AND WILL BE WORKING ON IT...BUT NO
ESTIMATED TIME OF WHEN IT WILL BE WORKING AGAIN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...AMS/WERT
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK
EQUIPMENT...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
336 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB LEVEL SHOWING AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WHILE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH
WAS ROTATING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE U.P. AND NORTHERN WI. RADAR
SHOWING SOME WEAK SHOWER ECHOES WITH THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA WERE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH CALM TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
FOR TODAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH EAST TODAY TAKING COLDEST
POOL OF TEMPERATURE ALOFT WITH IT MORE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NONETHELESS...FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN OVER THE
AREA MAINLY NORTHEAST OF I-94. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING QUITE A BIT
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THAT AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS. WILL KEEP A 20-30 PROBABILITY FOR THAT AREA. REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CUMULUS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI..TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S
ELSEWHERE.
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MOSTLY CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS. THIS WILL SET UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LOWS TONIGHT DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S IN THE
SAND/CRANBERRY COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND IN THE 50S
ELSEWHERE. ALSO...AREAS OF FOG WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER LYING
AREAS/RIVER VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SETTING UP RETURN/SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES LOOK
FOR HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE DAY FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
FEEL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE A WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO FAR SOUTHERN IA/CENTRAL IL. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE/LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA
CENTERED ON FRIDAY. THINKING ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA CLOSER TO NOSE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE
PLAINS WARM FRONT.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA. GFS BUFKIT SHOWING 1000-2000J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 10-15KT RANGE IN THE BEST CAPE
POOL. SO...AN ISOLATED SEVERE PULSE-MODE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL AS A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE AREA. GFS A BIT FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE
ECMWF...SO TIMING NOT SET IN STONE. GFS SHOWING MLCAPE IN THE 1000-
1500J/KG RANGE WITH A LITTLE BETTER 0-3KM SHEAR AROUND 20KT. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND SEVERE THREAT.
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TOWARD THE
REGION. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THUNDERSTORM THREAT
MONDAY WITH TIMING OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY/LEADING EDGE
OF COLDER AIR DURING PEAK HEATING. TUESDAY LOOKING LIKE A
COOL/CLOUDY/POSSIBLY SHOWERY DAY AS DEEP CLOSED LOW/COLD POOL ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
ON SUNDAY...THEN COOLING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
STILL SOME CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ALONG WITH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THESE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AND DO NOT THINK THEY WILL AFFECT EITHER TAF SITE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE 09.00Z NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW SATURATION AT THE SURFACE OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT AT KLSE WITH
THE WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING. THE NAM ALSO STILL SHOWS SOME
WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER COMING ACROSS THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KLSE
SHOWS SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING. THE NAM STILL PRODUCES SOME
SHOWERS...BUT THESE ARE OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE 08.12Z ECMWF AND 09.21Z SREF AND DO NOT PLAN TO INCLUDE ANY
SHOWERS IN EITHER TAF.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVEL CONTINUES TO FALL. MCGREGOR AND
GUTTENBERG IOWA ARE THE ONLY ARX FORECAST POINTS THAT REMAIN IN
FLOOD. THESE POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
THURSDAY. FOR THE CURRENT AND FORECAST RIVER LEVELS...SEE OUR
INTERNET PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1144 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA...WHILE
TROUGHING WAS IN PLACE FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WERE OVER NORTHERN WI AND
CENTRAL MANITOBA. COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVES ARE COMBINING
WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT COOL AIR ALOFT WAS EVIDENT EVEN AT 850MB WITH 12Z SOUNDINGS AT
MPX AND GRB OF 12C AND AT INL OF 9C. THESE COOL 850MB TEMPS HAVE
HELD TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70S TODAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN
INTO THE 50S THANKS TO A FLOW OF DRY AIR ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
THIS DRY AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 0.5-1 INCH PER 12Z SOUNDINGS...OR 50-100 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA. MODELS PROG THIS SHORTWAVE TO ROUND THE TROUGH AND CROSS
NORTHERN WI BETWEEN 03-09Z. ALTHOUGH THE SHORTWAVE IS COMING ACROSS
DURING THE NOCTURNAL HOURS...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WITH IT
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE. SEEMS LIKE THE TRACK OF THE WAVE
WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT JUST IN CASE DID HOLD ONTO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
ACROSS TAYLOR IN THE EVENING HOURS.
COOLER AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94...AIDED BY THE TAIL END OF THE SHORTWAVE
COMING ACROSS TONIGHT HANGING BACK. IN FACT...850MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED ABOUT 1C COOLER ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...RANGING
FROM 9-11C. THE COOL AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
EVAPOTRANSPORATION COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW MORE SHOWERS
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCES THAT
WERE INTRODUCED LAST NIGHT.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...WITH PERSISTENT DRY ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST AIDING AN
OVERALL GRADUAL FALL IN DEWPOINTS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
LONG TERM HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL
CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND A MUCH BELOW
NORMAL AIRMASS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FEATURES BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AHEAD
OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING SOUTHWEST CANADA. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS
BUILDING RIDGE...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED IN THE 0.5-1 INCH RANGE WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS. THE CONDITIONS ALSO FAVOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MOISTURE POOLING IN SMALLER VALLEY AND IN
THE CRANBERRY BOG AREAS...THE COOLER NIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
FOG IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE AIR MAY BE TOO DRY TO ALLOW THE
MISSISSIPPI TO FOG. ANOTHER MONTH FROM NOW WHEN WE HAVE A LONGER
NIGHT...THIS WOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP
WARMER TOO ON THURSDAY AS 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO CLIMB TO 12-14C BY
00Z.
THE WEATHER THEN GETS A BIT MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
DUE TO A SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS HAVE HAD A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF THIS SHORTWAVE
INDUCING A STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ZONE FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO OUR REGION. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX TO FORM ON THE NOSE OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN IOWA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUGGEST A SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT. ALTHOUGH THIS COMPLEX MAY STAY AWAY FROM THE AREA...IT
APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AIMING UP
AT US TO COMBINE WITH DPVA FROM THE SHORTWAVE TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...50-70...CENTERED ON THE 06-18Z FRIDAY
PERIOD. THIS PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP IT
COOLER ON FRIDAY TEMPERATURE WISE...DESPITE 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 14-
17C. DEWPOINTS ARE GOING TO BE ON THE RISE...THOUGH...MAKING IT FEEL
MORE MUGGY.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...ITS A VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST.
THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON UPPER TROUGHING DROPPING SOUTH
FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT
DETAILS WITHIN THE TROUGH VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THESE DETAILS
IMPACT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION AND THUS WHERE
CONVECTION CAN FIRE. CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT WE COULD DEAL WITH A
COUPLE BOUTS OF CONVECTION...BUT FOR NOW HAVE TO BLANKET MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND WITH 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES UNTIL DETAILS CAN SORT THEMSELVES
OUT. SHOULD BE A GENERAL COOLING TREND HEADING INTO
SUNDAY...THOUGH.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE CERTAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS NOW IN-SYNC HAVING AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW DROP DOWN INTO
THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO TRENDING TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO. BACKING TRACKING
THE UPPER LOW...IT ORIGINATES RIGHT NOW FROM THE ARCTIC...A
SITUATION SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW DURING THE WINTER. THUS...850MB
TEMPS TANK EARLY NEXT WEEK...DROPPING TO AS LOW AS +2C AT 12Z
TUESDAY. THE 08.00Z ECMWF STRUGGLES TO GET LA CROSSE UP TO 65 FOR
TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD BREAK THE RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE OF
68 SET IN 1962. DID NOT GO THAT COLD YET SINCE IT IS 7 DAYS
OUT...BUT KEPT IT MUCH BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS OF UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. ALSO HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES OF RAIN GIVEN THE COOL AIR
ALOFT...THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE THE AIR WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
STILL SOME CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ALONG WITH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THESE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AND DO NOT THINK THEY WILL AFFECT EITHER TAF SITE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE 09.00Z NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW SATURATION AT THE SURFACE OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT AT KLSE WITH
THE WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING. THE NAM ALSO STILL SHOWS SOME
WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER COMING ACROSS THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KLSE
SHOWS SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING. THE NAM STILL PRODUCES SOME
SHOWERS...BUT THESE ARE OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE 08.12Z ECMWF AND 09.21Z SREF AND DO NOT PLAN TO INCLUDE ANY
SHOWERS IN EITHER TAF.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WE ARE
EXPECTING ALL THE RIVER FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE ARX FORECAST AREA
TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR
THE CURRENT AND FORECAST RIVER LEVELS...SEE OUR INTERNET PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...DAS/AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1039 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...THEN STALL NEARBY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH TODAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...AND CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z HRRR RUN HINTS AT
DEVELOPMENT AFTR 18Z...WITH THE BEST CHC LATE AFTN INTO THE
EVENING OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL...MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S. HUMIDITY LEVELS COME DOWN
AS DEWPOINTS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR THE MOST PART.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ON ALL ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND THEN STALL JUST TO THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CT AS THESE AREAS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
COVERAGE WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED HOWEVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI...BUT WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH YET TO PASS THROUGH...LIKE 00Z GFS IDEA OF ISOLD
CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS VIA DIFFERENTIAL HEATING LATE
FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS.
EXPECT DRY WX TO CONTINUE THEREAFTER INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH
DOMINATES...AND AS ANY APPROACHING SHORTWAVES SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING GIVES WAY WILL HAVE INSUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.
MEDIUM RANGE NWP MODELS STILL SUGGEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION BEGINNING
LATE DAY SUNDAY MAINLY NORTH/WEST OF NYC AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE. MON COULD BE AN ACTIVE WX DAY IF THE
00Z GFS IS CORRECT...WITH AN APPROACHING SFC WARM FRONT AND MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN A HIGH PW AND LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
THAT COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING AND/OR SEVERE WX. TIMING OF ALL
THE INGREDIENTS WILL HAVE TO BE JUST RIGHT...SO GIVEN THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE DID NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVG.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TERMINALS FORECASTS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES MADE TO THE 12Z TAFS.
OTHERWISE...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SETS UP WEST OF THE TERMINALS
TODAY. BOTH THE TROUGH AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT.
VFR. WSW-SW FLOW BACKS SSW-S THIS AFTN...WITH SEA BREEZE EAST OF
THE HUDSON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT/TIMING.
ISO/SCT SHRA/TSTM LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. PROBABILITY AND
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 21-23 KT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN. TIMING OF SHIFT TO S COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFT TO S COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT WIND BACK CLOSER TO 200-180
MAGNETIC FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS AFTER AROUND 19Z.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT WIND BACK CLOSER TO 200-180
MAGNETIC FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS AFTER AROUND 19Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO S COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...MORNING SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE EAST OF
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.
.THU NIGHT-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TODAY...AND
TONIGHT ON THE CENTRAL/EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT OCEAN SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED AT 5-7 FT TODAY. ONCE A COLD FRONT FRONT PASSES
THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN...OCEAN SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE...WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5 FT BY TONIGHT W OF
FIRE ISLAND INLET...AND BY THU MORNING FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO
MONTAUK. THEN EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING WINDS/SEAS NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT QPF OF 1/2 INCH OR MORE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MON AS A POTENTIAL DAY
FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JP/SEARS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
703 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
RETURN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING HUMIDITY TO RETURN ALONG WITH THE
RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE....
VERY WARM START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE U60S AND L70S
AT 7 AM. CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING MAY YIELD A BRIEF
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTS UP THE
COASTLINE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS ACTIVITY OFF THE NJ
AND LONG ISLAND COAST MAY CLIP THE SOUTH COAST BUT NOT EXPECT MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF SHOWER THRU THIS MORNING.
AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 FOCUS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS NY/NJ AND PA...POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS
THAT INDICATED MID LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM LAST NIGHT. THIS MID LEVEL DRY AIR MAY BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OR AT LEAST KEEP AREAL
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS WELL SO NO
MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING. ALL IS QUIET
ON THE RADAR AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER SEE A FEW CELL DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF NJ ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. BECAUSE OF THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER NEAR DAY BREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND OVER THE CAPE AS LLJ INCREASES.
OTHERWISE THE FOG POTENTIAL SEEMS TO HAVE LIFTED AS GUSTY SW WINDS
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AT 20-25 MPH.
TODAY...
* HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST
INCLUDING THE ISLANDS.*
ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. HOWEVER
IT MAY NOT BE AS MUGGY AS DRY AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS WITH PREVIOUS DAYS...THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A
SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING
CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG. ALSO DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AS A
GOOD AMOUNT OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH
PER CROSS SECTIONS. THEREFORE IF ANY STORM DOES DEVELOP THERE
UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE TO GROW AND/OR BE LOW-TOPPED. ASIDE FROM THE
LOW INSTABILITY AND LACKING MOISTURE...SHEAR VALUES WILL BE HIGH
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40-50 KTS. WITH ALL THAT
SAID...GIVEN VERY HIGH SHEAR AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKING
INTO THE REGION THINK WE WILL SEE ISOLATED STORMS BUT WITH LIMITED
AREAL COVERAGE FROM THE LACK OF MOISTURE. ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE
TO DEVELOP COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE SO STILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL.
FINALLY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GENERATE MODEST TO
LARGE WAVE ACTION LEADING TO A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST...AS WELL
AS THE ISLANDS DURING THE DAY. BEACHGOERS SHOULD USE CAUTION IF
VENTURING INTO THE WATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
AS DRY AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ANTICIPATE THE STORM THREAT TO
DIMINISH IN THAT REGION...HOWEVER IT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE
AND THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY WHEN THE LLJ INCREASES OVERNIGHT.
FOG AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD.
TOMORROW...
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGERING SOUTH OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERY WEATHER. OTHERWISE
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR LESS
MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A TAD COOLER WITH HIGHS
REACHING ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRIER/LESS HUMID WEATHER & SEASONABLE TEMPS FRI AND SAT
* BECOMING MORE HUMID ALONG WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS SUN AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN WITH A TRANSITION TOWARD A DRIER/LESS
HUMID AIRMASS BEGINNING EARLY THIS PERIOD. THEN LATER THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER NORTHERN
CANADA DESCENDS EQUATORWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS
YIELDS AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL TROUGH OVER THIS AREA. GEFS ENSEMBLES
INDICATE 500MB HEIGHTS AND 850 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF -2 SD BELOW
CLIMO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRANSITIONING TO
THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD A CHANCE OF SHOWER/T-STORMS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS...
THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS TRAILING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH KICKS OUT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS WITH DRIER/LESS HUMID AIRMASS SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY...CORE OF COOLER/LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME. REAL PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR EARLY TO MID JULY
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW PTS IN THE 50S. HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WHICH
WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON SEABREEZES.
SAT...DRY/COMFORTABLE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRES ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. TEMPS IN THE U50S AND L60S BEFORE SUNRISE WILL CLIMB
TO 80-85 INLAND WITH MU70S ALONG THE COAST.
SUNDAY...WARM AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AS HIGH
PRES MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
MONDAY/TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AS LEAD SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AHEAD OF POLAR VORTEX SWEEPS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. BECOMING MORE HUMID GIVEN THE MOIST INFLOW OFF THE ATLC
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BURN OFF TEMPORARILY DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REFORM TONIGHT. ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE A FEW SPOT THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLAND WHERE LINGERING MVFR CLOUDS AND FOG WILL OCCUR.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT...TREND TOWARD VFR...EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW
CLOUDS...SHRA/TSRA EARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER AND VFR. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUNDAY WHEN MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
IN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS...SO THESE SCA HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS LONG
SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW PERSISTENT 4 TO 7 FOOT SEAS INTO AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THERE ALSO IS A LOW
RISK OF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN WATERS THIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW RISK OF A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS/T-STORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE TREND
TOWARD CLEARING SKIES AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1042 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND TOWARD THE COASTLINE FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS INLAND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR CLOSE TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND WILL DISSIPATE BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED INLAND. 12Z KCHS RAOB SHOWED
QUITE DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 1.3
PWATS...AS WELL AS SOME CAPPING NOTED ALOFT. GIVEN
THIS...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY GO OFF A BIT LATER
TODAY. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NSSL WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THAT
SOME ACTIVITY MAY FIRE OFF THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
INITIALLY...THEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT TO OUR INLAND ZONES. MODELS HINT THAT CONVECTION WILL FIRE OFF
THE INLAND SURFACE TROUGH AND THEN WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVE INTO OUR
AREA. COULD NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS
ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY GIVEN LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SIGNIFICANT FORCING.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY...WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S
WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES UP TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.
OVERALL...ONGOING FORECAST WAS ON TRACK SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE HOURLY T/TD GRIDS WERE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONGOING CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW ORIGINATING NEAR THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH COULD BECOME ORGANIZED AND COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD THE
E/SE AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. FURTHER...THIS
CONVECTION COULD INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS MAINLY
INLAND THIS EVENING. THUS...POPS ARE ACTUALLY HIGHER AFTER 6 PM THAN
AT ANY TIME DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. AFTER DARK...THE
SCENARIO BECOMES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE EVENING CONVECTIVE REGIME. IN GENERAL...THE
FORECAST TAPERS POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT DUE TO
THE USUAL INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION. EXCEPT WHERE RAIN
OCCURS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL MOST
AREAS TONIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE UNSETTLED FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. DEEP LAYER RIDGING
WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC...AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW THE INLAND SURFACE
TROUGH TO STRENGTHEN. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER OR
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE
DISSIPATING NEAR THE COASTLINE FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
DEEPEN WITHIN IMPROVED UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FORCING...EVIDENT BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO 2 INCHES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES
ENHANCING TYPICAL SEABREEZE CONVECTION RAISES CONFIDENCE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL PEAK IN THE 50 PERCENT RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN BEST RAIN CHANCES TRANSITION TO THE MARINE
ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK DUE TO LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT...THICKER CLOUDS AND BETTER
RAIN COVERAGE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.
SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
PRESS EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY DAMPENING THE EAST
COAST TROUGH. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE EXTENT THE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH...WITH
DIFFERENCES IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...BOTH
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE INLAND SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILING AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING NEAR 2 INCHES. WILL THUS LEAN
TOWARD SOLID THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST ALONG AND
INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING JUST TO THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE INLAND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK ON
SUNDAY...THEN STEADILY STRENGTHEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE HIGH THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...SUPPORTING AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EACH
AFTERNOON AS TYPICAL SEABREEZE CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. WILL ADVERTISE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE
30 TO NEAR 40 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...DIMINISHING
OVER LAND AREAS EACH EVENING/NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY
LITTLE THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ODDS STILL FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS...PERHAPS
AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND 18-21Z AND AGAIN AFTER 21-00Z AS INLAND
CONVECTION ATTEMPTS TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE COAST. HOWEVER...MID
LEVEL DRY AIR/CAPPING COULD PREVENT ANY CONVECTION NEAR THE
TERMINALS...THUS OPTED TO OMIT ANY MENTION OF VCTS/CBS FROM 12Z
TAFS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED BASED ON
SHORT/NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITHIN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.MARINE...
W/SW WINDS 10-15 KT THIS MORNING...AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT BEYOND 20 NM...
WILL GIVE WAY TO A VIGOROUS SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION PRODUCING
ONSHORE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT ESPECIALLY WITHIN NEARSHORE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. TONIGHT...S/SW WINDS AS HIGH AS
15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 3-4 FT MOST AREAS. BEYOND
20 NM...SEAS AS HIGH AS 5 FT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AND COULD
OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER
OUT TO SEA BY THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MORE SOLID SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOCTURNAL SURGES
UP TO 15 TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...SPR/WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...ECT/SPR
MARINE...ECT/WMS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1007 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1005 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2014
Weak surface trough located roughly along I-70 at 10 am, with some
clouds recently developing along it. These will push east of the
forecast area in the next couple hours. Remainder of the forecast
area currently clear, although visible satellite imagery showing a
large area of smoke aloft streaming southeast from the northern
Plains, which has started to brush across western Illinois.
Moisture cross-sections from the RAP model showing some lingering
clouds into early afternoon in southeast Illinois, but subsidence
will keep the remainder of the forecast area mainly sunny.
Made some minor adjustments to the hourly temperatures, which
tweaked the highs by a degree or two. Updated grids have been
sent, but the zone forecasts still appear OK.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 645 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2014
Despite the passage of a weak surface trough today, VFR conditions
should prevail over the next 24 hours. A layer of moisture in the
4k ft level will develop into scattered cumulus during the heat of
the day. A couple of forecast models are indicating a few showers
could develop ahead of the trough, but better chances should
remain southeast of the terminal sites this afternoon.
Winds will start out westerly this morning, then veer to the NW
with the trough passage and increase to around 10kt. Winds will
weaken with sunset and continue veering to the N-NE overnight.
Any reductions to visibility tonight due to fog will be minor and
remain VFR.
Shimon
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday
00Z models are in fair agreement the rest of the work week and
show a more unsettled weather pattern taking shape from Friday
through Monday.
Quiet weather expected through Thu night across central IL with
mostly clear skies and more comfortable humidity levels with
dew points in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Lows in the upper 50s
and lower 60s tonight and Thu night. Highs in the lower 80s today
and Thu with a few upper 70s NE areas. Weak 1018 mb high pressure
over the Plains to settle into MI tonight/Thu bringing the fair
weather to IL. Scattered cumulus clouds to appear late morning and
afternoon and more prevalent in southeast IL.
High pressure strengthens as it shifts into the eastern Great
Lakes and New England Friday with a return southerly flow setting
up over IL. This to bring warmer and more humid air back into the
area especially by Saturday/Sunday. A short wave near the western
states to ridge over top of broad/flat upper level ridge over
central Plains/Rockies and move into WI/IL Friday. This to bring
next chance of showers and thunderstorms to mainly areas from I-57
west Friday and across area Friday night & Saturday. Highs Friday
in low to mid 80s and mid to upper 80s Saturday/Sunday. Dew points
elevate into the mid to upper 60s Friday afternoon (highest
western IL) and low to mid 70s Saturday/Sunday.
LONG TERM...Sunday night through Wednesday
A couple of short waves pass ESE through IL this weekend into
Monday and continue daily chances of showers and thunderstorms in
tropical air mass. Upper level trof digging southward into the
Midwest and Great Lakes region early next week to also drive a
cold front south through central IL Monday afternoon/Monday night.
Cooler temperatures expected behind it Tue/Wed with highs in the
70s and less humid air returning.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1053 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW PLENTIFUL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT SKIRTING THE NERN ZONES ATTM. MEANWHILE A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE POPPED UP IN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER
THE SERN ZONES. ALL THIS GOES ALONG WELL WITH INHERITED
GRIDS/ZONES OTHER THAN MAYBE DEVELOPING A COUPLE OF HOURS QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THEREFORE SIMPLY PUSHED AFTERNOON POPS
UP A BIT TO ACCOUNT. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADARS IN
CASE POPS NEED TO BE INCREASED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ACADIANA.
ELSEWHERE JUST VERY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO GRIDS/ZONES.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/
AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LIMITED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS AND ACADIANA THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. BEGINNING TO SEE SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ADVANCING SOUTHEAST. THIS AHEAD OF A MORE VIGOROUS COMPLEX
OVER ARKANSAS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BPT...WILL CARRY ALL OTHER
TERMINALS WITH VCTS THROUGH TODAY. APPEARS THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA MAY BE TOO LIMITED FOR DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE TRIGGERED BY INCOMING OUTFLOWS/DISTURBANCES FROM THE
NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING BUT WEAK SEA BREEZE. END ANY FURTHER
PRECIP WITH THE SETTING SUN. STILL ANTICIPATING VFR TO PREVAIL
AGAIN TODAY WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LOTS TO LOOK AT THIS MORNING STARTING ALOFT...LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD
ON THE IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ADVANCING SOUTHWARD IN THE 500MB
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS CLOUD COVER ORIGINATED FROM CONVECTION
FIRING OFF ON A COOL FRONT WHICH WAS DRAPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE DIGITAL
GRIDS TO SHOW THIS ADVANCING CLOUD SHIELD WHICH SHOULD THIN OUT
LATER THIS MORNING.
ALSO THIS MORNING...LCH RADAR SHOWED CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN CAMERON AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WITH AREA SOUNDING PROFILES UP
OVER 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS
DISSIPATING AS IT REACHED LAND.
TODAY EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND THIN
OUT SOME AS IT MAKES IT WAY DOWN INTO THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION. AS
LAND HEATS UP ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS....WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
CONVECTION BEGIN TO FIRE ON LAND MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...BOTH THE WRF LOCAL MODEL AND THE HRRR SHOW
AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD TO SOME OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AREAS OF LOUISIANA...TO A LESSER DEGREE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. WILL GO WITH LOWEST POPS INLAND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...HOWEVER
MOSTLY 20 PERCENT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
WHERE HIGHER POPS WILL BE FOUND.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY NOT GET FURTHER THAN NORTHERN LOUISIANA BEFORE
WASHING OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY OUR REGION WILL
STAY IN A COL BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF
US...AND HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF US.
IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS COL...PRETTY MUCH EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING...
SEABREEZE...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO DISTRIBUTE THE RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND...MAY BEGIN TO SEE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM NORTH TEXAS BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. SO
EXPECT...LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOR MOST OF US...HOT DAYS AND WARM NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. SOME MAY GET LUCKY ENOUGH TO GET SOME RAIN COOLED
AIR...BUT MOST WILL LIKELY JUST STAY ON THE DRIER SIDE AS WE GET
INTO THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE LOWER END OF THE SCALE THROUGH THE 5 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TREND AS WELL WITH
LOWER HEIGHTS. LATE NIGHT CONVECTION 20NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE BUT MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 92 75 90 75 93 / 20 10 30 10 20
KBPT 92 75 91 75 92 / 20 10 30 10 20
KAEX 94 74 93 73 95 / 20 10 30 10 20
KLFT 92 74 91 74 93 / 30 10 40 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
705 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LIMITED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS AND ACADIANA THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. BEGINNING TO SEE SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ADVANCING SOUTHEAST. THIS AHEAD OF A MORE VIGOROUS COMPLEX
OVER ARKANSAS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BPT...WILL CARRY ALL OTHER
TERMINALS WITH VCTS THROUGH TODAY. APPEARS THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA MAY BE TOO LIMITED FOR DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE TRIGGERED BY INCOMING OUTFLOWS/DISTURBANCES FROM THE
NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING BUT WEAK SEA BREEZE. END ANY FURTHER
PRECIP WITH THE SETTING SUN. STILL ANTICIPATING VFR TO PREVAIL
AGAIN TODAY WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
&&
MARCOTTE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LOTS TO LOOK AT THIS MORNING STARTING ALOFT...LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD
ON THE IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ADVANCING SOUTHWARD IN THE 500MB
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS CLOUD COVER ORIGINATED FROM CONVECTION
FIRING OFF ON A COOL FRONT WHICH WAS DRAPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE DIGITAL
GRIDS TO SHOW THIS ADVANCING CLOUD SHIELD WHICH SHOULD THIN OUT
LATER THIS MORNING.
ALSO THIS MORNING...LCH RADAR SHOWED CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN CAMERON AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WITH AREA SOUNDING PROFILES UP
OVER 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS
DISSIPATING AS IT REACHED LAND.
TODAY EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND THIN
OUT SOME AS IT MAKES IT WAY DOWN INTO THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION. AS
LAND HEATS UP ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS....WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
CONVECTION BEGIN TO FIRE ON LAND MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...BOTH THE WRF LOCAL MODEL AND THE HRRR SHOW
AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD TO SOME OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AREAS OF LOUISIANA...TO A LESSER DEGREE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. WILL GO WITH LOWEST POPS INLAND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...HOWEVER
MOSTLY 20 PERCENT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
WHERE HIGHER POPS WILL BE FOUND.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY NOT GET FURTHER THAN NORTHERN LOUISIANA BEFORE
WASHING OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY OUR REGION WILL
STAY IN A COL BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF
US...AND HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF US.
IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS COL...PRETTY MUCH EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING...
SEABREEZE...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO DISTRIBUTE THE RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND...MAY BEGIN TO SEE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM NORTH TEXAS BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. SO
EXPECT...LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOR MOST OF US...HOT DAYS AND WARM NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. SOME MAY GET LUCKY ENOUGH TO GET SOME RAIN COOLED
AIR...BUT MOST WILL LIKELY JUST STAY ON THE DRIER SIDE AS WE GET
INTO THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE LOWER END OF THE SCALE THROUGH THE 5 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TREND AS WELL WITH
LOWER HEIGHTS. LATE NIGHT CONVECTION 20NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE BUT MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 92 75 90 75 93 / 20 10 30 10 20
KBPT 92 75 91 75 92 / 20 10 30 10 20
KAEX 94 74 93 73 95 / 20 10 30 10 20
KLFT 92 74 91 74 93 / 30 10 40 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1014 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AND WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...A QUICK UPDATE TO LWR POPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AND WILL UPDATE TEMPS WITH OBSERVATION. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION
FIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION SOULD BEGIN OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE AS INDICATED BY
THE HRRR AND PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST. SPC WRF INDICATES CONVECTION
LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG OR
ISOLATED SVR STORM IN TH CWA. DEWPOINTS DROPPED A 3 TO 5 DEGREES
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISC...LINGERING SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TO MID MORNING. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. EXPECT
MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN DRY AS DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN BEHIND THE
FIRST FRONT. MAY SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE SECONDARY FRONT TO KICK OFF A LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANY WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY AND SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 80S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SECONDARY FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
THURSDAY LOOKING VERY NICE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST WITH COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM A FEW
MOUNTAIN CLOUDS...SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NGT THRU FRIDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVE OUT TO OUR S...TOO
FAR S TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA. THE HIGH STAYS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
NGT AND SATURDAY THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NGT. EXPECT FAIR
WX WITH THIS HIGH THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY NGT. THE TREND WILL BE
TO START OUT WITH PLEASANT SUMMER TEMPS WITH LOW HUMIDITY UNTIL THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A RETURN FLOW OF SW WINDS BRINGS INCREASING
HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WHICH WILL START ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING RISK OF SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WELL.
THE VERY WARM AND HUMID WX LASTS THRU TUESDAY. AN UPPER LVL TROF
MOVES THRU MONDAY AND MONDAY EVE WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE MOVES IN FROM THE W TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVE AS IT PINWHEELS
AROUND AN UPPER LVL CLOSED LOW LOCATED IN CANADA N OF THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SYSTEM AGAIN WILL HELP FOCUS SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY
NGT THRU SATURDAY NGT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WARMER
AND MORE HUMID AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY INCREASING THE CHC OF SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S FOR SEAS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS
WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY
NGT. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THE S SW FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED BY
A SEA BREEZE CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE AND SEAS TO BUILD ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT INCREASE ENOUGH TO CREATE SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
700 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION IN BETWEEN AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVERHEAD WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW PROGGED TO SET UP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 TODAY. YESTERDAY`S VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE SMOKE PLUME STRETCHING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADIAN FIRES INTO THE DAKOTAS. IF THICK
ENOUGH...THIS COULD LIMIT TEMPS TODAY AS WELL BUT THAT IS TOUGH TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT. THE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP DO
INDICATE AN AREA OF PCPN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A QUICK MOVING IMPULSE DROPPING
THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND
SO THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP
OVER OUR WESTERN CWA AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
NOSE OF MODEST LLVL JET SHIFTS EASTWARD.
A BIT OF A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
WHILE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION BRINGS JULY MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION. ELONGATED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF IT. BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE NOCTURNAL AS THE
NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLVL JET ADVECTS EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD AID IN ELEVATED TSTMS
ACROSS THE CWA. THE SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS FRIDAY...PLACING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE KS/NEB BORDER
BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
ROUNDS OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT ANY ONE PARTICULAR PERIOD SO HAVE LEFT SMALL
POPS IN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
CONTINUOUS ACTIVITY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND RAP13 MODEL SHOW THAT SOME -SHRA/-TSRA COULD MAKE IT
TO NEAR KOFK AND KLNK BY MID AFTERNOON AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WORK THEIR WAY EAST. 06Z NAM ALSO SUGGESTS THAT COULD
OCCUR. SMALL CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING... ESPECIALLY FOR
KLNK.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1028 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FROM THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE AREA
WITH QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1020 AM EDT UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THESE TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BECOME NW AFTER A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
STORM SURVEYS ARE STILL IN PROGRESS FROM YESTERDAY`S STORMS. DETAILED
INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED WHEN STORMS ARE FULLY INVESTIGATED. THANK
YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.
750 AM UPDATE...
THE RESULTS OF THE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FROM LATE
TUESDAY ARE CONTINUING TO BE REALIZED. THREE NWS STORM SURVEY
TEAMS ARE OUT TODAY TO DETERMINE THE TYPE /TORNADO OR STRAIGHT
LINE/ AND STRENGTH OF WINDS IN THE MOST IMPACTED AREAS...AT THIS
TIME PLANNED FOR ONONDAGA...MADISON...AND ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NEW
YORK...AND BRADFORD TO SUSQUEHANNA COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE
SURVEYING PROCESS MAY GO BEYOND TODAY...AND MAY INCLUDE OTHER
AREAS THAT MAY BECOME APPARENT. WE MOURN THE 4 FATALITIES THAT
OCCURRED IN MADISON COUNTY.
THE SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRESSED EAST LATE MONDAY EVENING
AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. A MUCH DRIER
ATMOSPHERE IS TAKING ITS PLACE...YET STILL SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED ONCE DIURNAL HEATING GETS GOING TODAY. MODEL CAPE ONLY
ACHIEVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AS PER GFS AND RAP MODELS...BUT MORE
LIKE SEVERAL HUNDRED TO NEAR 1000 J/KG IN NAM AND ARW MODELS.
THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF 0-6KM SHEAR...AND WITH LESS
MOISTURE...LOWEST PORTION OF SOUNDING TAKES ON A INVERTED-V LOOK
TO IT WHICH WILL PROMOTE MIXING. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDER WILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO MUCH LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES /MAINLY UNDER AN INCH- AND-A-QUARTER/...THE QUESTIONABLE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AS LIFTED INDICES ONLY BARELY GET
NEGATIVE...AND THE MUCH POORER JET SUPPORT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
IN FACT...WE ARE NOW GETTING INTO THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
300MB JET INSTEAD OF THE RIGHT...UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
STILL...GIVEN SOME OF THE FACTORS ABOVE...I INCLUDED MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES.
COULD EASILY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH OR SO IN THE STRONGEST
CELLS.
WHAT ACTIVITY THAT WE GET TODAY WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON
DIURNAL HEATING...AND AS SUCH...IT WILL QUICKLY END LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF THAT HEATING AND FURTHER
ENCROACHMENT OF DRY AIR MASS. DEWPOINTS...ALREADY NOTICEABLY LOWER
TODAY COMFORT-WISE...WILL CONTINUE TO CRASH THROUGH THE 50S TONIGHT AND
EVEN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL DO THE SAME IN MOST OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
230 AM EDT UPDATE...
UPDATED TEMPS FOR THE PD TO THE LATEST BLENDED MOS GUID. HAVE LEFT
POPS OUT FOR THU DESPITE UPR TROF SWINGING THRU. LOOKS AS THOUGH
SFC HIPRES WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO SQUASH ANY DVLPG CONV ELEMENTS.
TROF MVES EWRD SLOWLY AND WILL BE CNTRD OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENG FOR FRI WITH SFC HI STILL IN PLACE. PRVS DISC BLO.
140 PM EDT UPDATE...
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW
ATTENDANT WITH THE UPPER LVL TROUGH BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. COOLER
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE PASSAGE. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE REGION FROM THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
EARLY WED MORNING THUS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION.
WED THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST AND START TO
LIFT NORTH. THE MAIN SUBSIDENCE ATTENDANT WITH THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA... THUS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
COMBINATION FROM UPPR LVL DYNAMICS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAVING
SOME INSTABILITY WED... WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNAL DRIVEN AND WHEN THE SUNSETS EXPECT SHOWERS
START TO DIMINISH. REGIONS MAY SEE SOME SUN EARLY ON... HOWEVER
EXPECT A DENSE CU DECK TO BUILD QUICKLY WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WED NIGHT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ENDING WHAT SHOWERS STILL LINGER.
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE WEST WHICH WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF BEAUTIFUL DAYS TO RETURN
BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
70S AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S. EACH NIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THURS AND FRI WILL BE TRANQUIL WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 AM EDT UPDATE...LTL CHG TO THE XNTDD AS A BROAD TROF SLOWLY
DVLPS THRU THE PD...GRADUALLY INCRSG THE CHANCE FOR CONV. DAYTIME
HI/S WILL AVG ABV NRML WITH WEAK WAA CONTG INTO TUE. LOWS NEAR
NRML...ESP EARLY. PRVS DISC BLO.
3 PM UPDATE... HIPRES WL BE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE EXTNDD WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO KICK IN DRG THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SLGT CHC THUNDER DRG THE AFTN HRS
AS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP TO OUR WEST SUN MRNG. AS FNT APPRCHS DRG
THE DAY ON SUNDAY POPS WL INCRS TO HICHC AND WITH MULTIPLE WVS
POSSIBLY RIDING UP ALONG BNDRY THRU EARLY IN THE WEEK THE CHC FOR
THUNDER CONTS UNTIL FROPA OCCURS BY TUE MRNG. TEMPS WL MODERATE TO
ABV NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND BFR DROPPING OFF TO NR NORMAL FOLLOWING
FROPA. HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH JUST A FEW TWEEKS
FOR COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR TROF DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES AND PUSHES A SCNDRY COLD FNT THRU
THE AREA THIS AFTN. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHWR
AND MVFR CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTION WILL BE OVER THE ERN AND SRN
TAF SITES AT BGM AND AVP AFT 21Z. OTRW XPCT VFR CONDS THRU THE PD
WITH THE XCPTN OF IFR FOG LATE IN ELM. WEST WINDS TODAY AHD OF THE
SFC FNT WILL GO NW THAN BECOME LGT AFT SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT PREDAWN VALLEY FOG KELM.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN SHRA AND TSRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...KAH/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM/KAH
LONG TERM...DGM/PVN
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
751 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FROM THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE AREA
WITH QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
750 AM UPDATE...
THE RESULTS OF THE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FROM LATE
TUESDAY ARE CONTINUING TO BE REALIZED. THREE NWS STORM SURVEY
TEAMS ARE OUT TODAY TO DETERMINE THE TYPE /TORNADO OR STRAIGHT
LINE/ AND STRENGTH OF WINDS IN THE MOST IMPACTED AREAS...AT THIS
TIME PLANNED FOR ONONDAGA...MADISON...AND ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NEW
YORK...AND BRADFORD TO SUSQUEHANNA COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE
SURVEYING PROCESS MAY GO BEYOND TODAY...AND MAY INCLUDE OTHER
AREAS THAT MAY BECOME APPARENT. WE MOURN THE 4 FATALITIES THAT
OCCURRED IN MADISON COUNTY.
THE SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRESSED EAST LATE MONDAY EVENING
AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. A MUCH DRIER
ATMOSPHERE IS TAKING ITS PLACE...YET STILL SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED ONCE DIURNAL HEATING GETS GOING TODAY. MODEL CAPE ONLY
ACHIEVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AS PER GFS AND RAP MODELS...BUT MORE
LIKE SEVERAL HUNDRED TO NEAR 1000 J/KG IN NAM AND ARW MODELS.
THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF 0-6KM SHEAR...AND WITH LESS
MOISTURE...LOWEST PORTION OF SOUNDING TAKES ON A INVERTED-V LOOK
TO IT WHICH WILL PROMOTE MIXING. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDER WILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO MUCH LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES /MAINLY UNDER AN INCH- AND-A-QUARTER/...THE QUESTIONABLE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AS LIFTED INDICES ONLY BARELY GET
NEGATIVE...AND THE MUCH POORER JET SUPPORT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
IN FACT...WE ARE NOW GETTING INTO THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
300MB JET INSTEAD OF THE RIGHT...UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
STILL...GIVEN SOME OF THE FACTORS ABOVE...I INCLUDED MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES.
COULD EASILY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH OR SO IN THE STRONGEST
CELLS.
WHAT ACTIVITY THAT WE GET TODAY WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON
DIURNAL HEATING...AND AS SUCH...IT WILL QUICKLY END LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF THAT HEATING AND FURTHER
ENCROACHMENT OF DRY AIR MASS. DEWPOINTS...ALREADY NOTICEABLY LOWER
TODAY COMFORT-WISE...WILL CONTINUE TO CRASH THROUGH THE 50S TONIGHT AND
EVEN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL DO THE SAME IN MOST OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
230 AM EDT UPDATE...
UPDATED TEMPS FOR THE PD TO THE LATEST BLENDED MOS GUID. HAVE LEFT
POPS OUT FOR THU DESPITE UPR TROF SWINGING THRU. LOOKS AS THOUGH
SFC HIPRES WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO SQUASH ANY DVLPG CONV ELEMENTS.
TROF MVES EWRD SLOWLY AND WILL BE CNTRD OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENG FOR FRI WITH SFC HI STILL IN PLACE. PRVS DISC BLO.
140 PM EDT UPDATE...
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW
ATTENDANT WITH THE UPPER LVL TROUGH BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. COOLER
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE PASSAGE. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE REGION FROM THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
EARLY WED MORNING THUS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION.
WED THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST AND START TO
LIFT NORTH. THE MAIN SUBSIDENCE ATTENDANT WITH THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA... THUS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
COMBINATION FROM UPPR LVL DYNAMICS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAVING
SOME INSTABILITY WED... WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNAL DRIVEN AND WHEN THE SUNSETS EXPECT SHOWERS
START TO DIMINISH. REGIONS MAY SEE SOME SUN EARLY ON... HOWEVER
EXPECT A DENSE CU DECK TO BUILD QUICKLY WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WED NIGHT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ENDING WHAT SHOWERS STILL LINGER.
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE WEST WHICH WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF BEAUTIFUL DAYS TO RETURN
BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
70S AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S. EACH NIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THURS AND FRI WILL BE TRANQUIL WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 AM EDT UPDATE...LTL CHG TO THE XNTDD AS A BROAD TROF SLOWLY
DVLPS THRU THE PD...GRADUALLY INCRSG THE CHANCE FOR CONV. DAYTIME
HI/S WILL AVG ABV NRML WITH WEAK WAA CONTG INTO TUE. LOWS NEAR
NRML...ESP EARLY. PRVS DISC BLO.
3 PM UPDATE... HIPRES WL BE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE EXTNDD WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO KICK IN DRG THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SLGT CHC THUNDER DRG THE AFTN HRS
AS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP TO OUR WEST SUN MRNG. AS FNT APPRCHS DRG
THE DAY ON SUNDAY POPS WL INCRS TO HICHC AND WITH MULTIPLE WVS
POSSIBLY RIDING UP ALONG BNDRY THRU EARLY IN THE WEEK THE CHC FOR
THUNDER CONTS UNTIL FROPA OCCURS BY TUE MRNG. TEMPS WL MODERATE TO
ABV NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND BFR DROPPING OFF TO NR NORMAL FOLLOWING
FROPA. HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH JUST A FEW TWEEKS
FOR COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR TROF DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES AND PUSHES A SCNDRY COLD FNT THRU
THE AREA THIS AFTN. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHWR
AND MVFR CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTION WILL BE OVER THE ERN AND SRN
TAF SITES AT BGM AND AVP AFT 21Z. OTRW XPCT VFR CONDS THRU THE PD
WITH THE XCPTN OF IFR FOG LATE IN ELM. WEST WINDS TODAY AHD OF THE
SFC FNT WILL GO NW THAN BECOME LGT AFT SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT PREDAWN VALLEY FOG KELM.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN SHRA AND TSRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM/KAH
LONG TERM...DGM/PVN
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
639 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FROM THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE AREA WITH
QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...
THE RESULTS OF THE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FROM LATE
TUESDAY ARE CONTINUING TO BE REALIZED. THREE NWS STORM SURVEY
TEAMS WILL BE OUT TODAY TO DETERMINE THE TYPE /TORNADO OR STRAIGHT
LINE/ AND STRENGTH OF WINDS IN THE MOST IMPACTED AREAS...AT THIS
TIME PLANNED FOR ONONDAGA...MADISON...AND ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NEW
YORK...AND BRADFORD TO SUSQUEHANNA COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE
SURVEYING PROCESS MAY GO BEYOND TODAY...AND MAY INCLUDE OTHER
AREAS THAT MAY BECOME APPARENT. WE MOURN THE 4 FATALITIES THAT
OCCURRED IN MADISON COUNTY.
THE SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRESSED EAST LATE MONDAY EVENING
AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. A MUCH DRIER
ATMOSPHERE IS TAKING ITS PLACE...YET STILL SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED ONCE DIURNAL HEATING GETS GOING TODAY. MODEL CAPE ONLY
ACHIEVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AS PER GFS AND RAP MODELS...BUT MORE
LIKE SEVERAL HUNDRED TO NEAR 1000 J/KG IN NAM AND ARW MODELS.
THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF 0-6KM SHEAR...AND WITH LESS
MOISTURE...LOWEST PORTION OF SOUNDING TAKES ON A INVERTED-V LOOK
TO IT WHICH WILL PROMOTE MIXING. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDER WILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO MUCH LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES /MAINLY UNDER AN INCH- AND-A-QUARTER/...THE QUESTIONABLE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AS LIFTED INDICES ONLY BARELY GET
NEGATIVE...AND THE MUCH POORER JET SUPPORT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
IN FACT...WE ARE NOW GETTING INTO THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
300MB JET INSTEAD OF THE RIGHT...UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
STILL...GIVEN SOME OF THE FACTORS ABOVE...I INCLUDED MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES.
COULD EASILY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH OR SO IN THE STRONGEST
CELLS.
WHAT ACTIVITY THAT WE GET TODAY WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON
DIURNAL HEATING...AND AS SUCH...IT WILL QUICKLY END LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF THAT HEATING AND FURTHER
ENCROACHMENT OF DRY AIR MASS. DEWPOINTS...ALREADY NOTICEABLY LOWER
TODAY COMFORT-WISE...WILL CONTINUE TO CRASH THROUGH THE 50S TONIGHT AND
EVEN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL DO THE SAME IN MOST OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
230 AM EDT UPDATE...
UPDATED TEMPS FOR THE PD TO THE LATEST BLENDED MOS GUID. HAVE LEFT
POPS OUT FOR THU DESPITE UPR TROF SWINGING THRU. LOOKS AS THOUGH
SFC HIPRES WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO SQUASH ANY DVLPG CONV ELEMENTS.
TROF MVES EWRD SLOWLY AND WILL BE CNTRD OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENG FOR FRI WITH SFC HI STILL IN PLACE. PRVS DISC BLO.
140 PM EDT UPDATE...
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW
ATTENDANT WITH THE UPPER LVL TROUGH BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. COOLER
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE PASSAGE. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE REGION FROM THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
EARLY WED MORNING THUS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION.
WED THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST AND START TO
LIFT NORTH. THE MAIN SUBSIDENCE ATTENDANT WITH THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA... THUS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
COMBINATION FROM UPPR LVL DYNAMICS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAVING
SOME INSTABILITY WED... WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNAL DRIVEN AND WHEN THE SUNSETS EXPECT SHOWERS
START TO DIMINISH. REGIONS MAY SEE SOME SUN EARLY ON... HOWEVER
EXPECT A DENSE CU DECK TO BUILD QUICKLY WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WED NIGHT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ENDING WHAT SHOWERS STILL LINGER.
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE WEST WHICH WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF BEAUTIFUL DAYS TO RETURN
BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
70S AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S. EACH NIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THURS AND FRI WILL BE TRANQUIL WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 AM EDT UPDATE...LTL CHG TO THE XNTDD AS A BROAD TROF SLOWLY
DVLPS THRU THE PD...GRADUALLY INCRSG THE CHANCE FOR CONV. DAYTIME
HI/S WILL AVG ABV NRML WITH WEAK WAA CONTG INTO TUE. LOWS NEAR
NRML...ESP EARLY. PRVS DISC BLO.
3 PM UPDATE... HIPRES WL BE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE EXTNDD WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO KICK IN DRG THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SLGT CHC THUNDER DRG THE AFTN HRS
AS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP TO OUR WEST SUN MRNG. AS FNT APPRCHS DRG
THE DAY ON SUNDAY POPS WL INCRS TO HICHC AND WITH MULTIPLE WVS
POSSIBLY RIDING UP ALONG BNDRY THRU EARLY IN THE WEEK THE CHC FOR
THUNDER CONTS UNTIL FROPA OCCURS BY TUE MRNG. TEMPS WL MODERATE TO
ABV NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND BFR DROPPING OFF TO NR NORMAL FOLLOWING
FROPA. HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH JUST A FEW TWEEKS
FOR COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR TROF DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES AND PUSHES A SCNDRY COLD FNT THRU
THE AREA THIS AFTN. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHWR
AND MVFR CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTION WILL BE OVER THE ERN AND SRN
TAF SITES AT BGM AND AVP AFT 21Z. OTRW XPCT VFR CONDS THRU THE PD
WITH THE XCPTN OF IFR FOG LATE IN ELM. WEST WINDS TODAY AHD OF THE
SFC FNT WILL GO NW THAN BECOME LGT AFT SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT PREDAWN VALLEY FOG KELM.
SUN...MAINLY VFR...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN SHRA AND TSRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM/KAH
LONG TERM...DGM/PVN
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1008 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING ACROSS NE OH/NW
PA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO WITH THE DAY TIME HEATING AND AHEAD
OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH NEAR LAKE ERIE. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER LAKE ERIE ALONG THE MID LAKE
CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND
PROBABLY REDEVELOP INTO A WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER PATTERN BY
THE AFTERNOON. OTHER RANDOM SHOWERS/STORMS WILL POP UP BUT WITH A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS THE COVERAGE WILL NOT
EVER BECOME VERY SIGNIFICANT.
PREVIOUS "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS INDICATE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER NE OHIO AND NW
PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND SREF AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. I
WILL KEEP A SLIGHTLY HIGHER POP FORECAST OVER THIS AREA BUT WILL
NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF TSTMS ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE AND I WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM
THEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO
HANDLE THE CONVECTIVE TREND WELL FOR THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SUGGEST SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NW OHIO BY 12Z SATURDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE
PERIOD KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE PRETTY GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. THE FRONT
WILL FINALLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH FOR GOOD ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL TRY FOR DRY
WEATHER ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION IS A LITTLE DRIER THAN EXPECTED SO
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING SCT TO BKN CU TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY INCLUDING IN THE TAFS.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TOWARD EVENING. LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BECOME W TO
NW BY MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
IN THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT IS GONE AND WILL LIKELY NOT NEED ANOTHER
ONE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE
TODAY CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST. SPEEDS FOR THE MOST
PART WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. EXPECT THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE
ON A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE LAKE AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD BE UNDER 15 KNOTS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...GARNET/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
731 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST AND THE TEMPERATURES TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER
NE OHIO AND NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARDS DAY BREAK. AS THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS INDICATE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER NE OHIO AND NW PA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND SREF AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. I WILL KEEP
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER POP FORECAST OVER THIS AREA BUT WILL NOT RULE
OUT A CHANCE OF TSTMS ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE AND I WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM
THEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO
HANDLE THE CONVECTIVE TREND WELL FOR THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SUGGEST SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NW OHIO BY 12Z SATURDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE
PERIOD KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE PRETTY GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. THE FRONT
WILL FINALLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH FOR GOOD ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL TRY FOR DRY
WEATHER ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS A LITTLE DRIER THAN EXPECTED SO
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING SCT TO BKN CU TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY INCLUDING IN THE TAFS.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TOWARD EVENING. LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BECOME W TO
NW BY MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
IN THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT IS GONE AND WILL LIKELY NOT NEED ANOTHER
ONE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE
TODAY CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST. SPEEDS FOR THE MOST
PART WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. EXPECT THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE
ON A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE LAKE AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD BE UNDER 15 KNOTS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
608 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST AND THE TEMPERATURES TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER
NE OHIO AND NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARDS DAY BREAK. AS THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS INDICATE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER NE OHIO AND NW PA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND SREF AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. I WILL KEEP
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER POP FORECAST OVER THIS AREA BUT WILL NOT RULE
OUT A CHANCE OF TSTMS ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE AND I WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM
THEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO
HANDLE THE CONVECTIVE TREND WELL FOR THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SUGGEST SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NW OHIO BY 12Z SATURDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE
PERIOD KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE PRETTY GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. THE FRONT
WILL FINALLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH FOR GOOD ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL TRY FOR DRY
WEATHER ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CLIP THE EASTERN
TAF SITES THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS AS WELL. MAINLY VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING IN THE EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO WIN OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES GOING
SCATTERED FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND MID AFTERNOON. SW
FLOW WILL BECOME W TO NW AFTER 12Z.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
IN THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT IS GONE AND WILL LIKELY NOT NEED ANOTHER
ONE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE
TODAY CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST. SPEEDS FOR THE MOST
PART WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. EXPECT THE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE
ON A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE LAKE AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD BE UNDER 15 KNOTS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1032 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY IN
THE MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION. THAT
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM...NOT MANY ECHOES ON RADAR AT MID MORNING.
HOWEVER...CAMS, 12Z NAM AND RAP ALL INDCIATE THAT COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABLIZES WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING. RAP INDICATES A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN TN WHICH MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA BY 00Z. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH UPPER FORCING TO PRODUCE SCT TO EVEN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. OUR LOCAL CAMPOP GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST
COVERAGE NORTH OF I-85 THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ACTUAL HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS/NC PIEDMONT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POP GRIDS TO
DEPICT THAT GENERAL SCENARIO BY BLENDING CAMPOP/CONSSHORT. CAN`T
RULE OUT A FEW STORMS THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WINDS/HAIL...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS ON THE LOW SIDE AS
SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE. BLENDED IN THE LATEST CONSHORT DATA TO
ADJUST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WINDS. THIS GENERALLY LOWERED MAX TEMPS BY
A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THERE IS VERY LITTLE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN OR IMMEDIATELY
UPSTREAM OF THE CWA...NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THAT THE AREA IS
WITHIN AN INSTABILITY MINIMUM. NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS STILL SOME
WEAK BUOYANCY UPSTREAM OVER THE TENN VALLEY...AND LATEST KGSP VAD
WIND PROFILE IS CONFIRMING A STOUT 25 TO 35 KTS OF WESTERLY FLOW
ABOVE ABOUT 2 KFT. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING
AT 07Z ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...WHICH
WOULD PROBABLY ARRIVE IN THE FAR WESTERN NC MTNS BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE
TENN BORDER COUNTIES BY SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTIVE SETUP FOR LATER TODAY LEAVES MUCH TO BE
DESIRED. THE FRONTAL ZONE...SUCH AS IT IS...IS STILL DRAPED FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY W/SW TOWARD THE ARKLATEX. IN OTHER WORDS...IT HAS A LONG
WAY TO GO TO BE A PLAYER IN CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...IT MAY TURN OUT THAT THE MAIN FOCUS (OTHER THAN
THE USUAL TERRAIN/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EFFECTS) MAY BE A LEE SIDE
TROUGH...BUT EVEN THAT MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN FOR AREAS JUST TO
OUR EAST. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL IN THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...AND IN OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...THAT PESKY
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HINDER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. IN
FACT...FOR THIS VERY REASON THE MAX TEMP FORECAST IS 2-4 DEGREES
LOWER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. FINALLY...
WHILE PROFILES WILL BE MOISTENING CONSIDERABLY...FORECAST PWATS ARE
ONLY 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...
HAVE ESSENTIALLY OPTED FOR A SHOTGUNNED 40-50 POPS ACROSS THE CWA...
WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTNS...WHICH WILL
HAVE THE BENEFIT OF A CONTINUED (ALBEIT WEAKENING) W/SW UPSLOPE
FLOW. IN TERMS OF THE SEVERE THREAT...MODEST INSTABILITY/MOIST
PROFILES AND WEAKENING SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...THE PIEDMONT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF INSOLATION/HEATING IS MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN
EXPECTED.
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL FINALLY SETTLE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT BY
THAT TIME...WITH WIND PROFILES WEAKENING AND MODEST AT BEST
NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY...SUSPECT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH
MORE THAN SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR TOO LONG PAST MID-EVENING OR SO.
MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO UNDER CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM WED...SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SEWD THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE CAROLINAS FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WHILE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT. DEEP THICKNESSES DO NOT DROP APPRECIABLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND IN SOMEWHAT OF A DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...LATEST
MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO WEAKEN THE FRONT AND VIRTUALLY WASH IT OUT
OVER THE PIEDMONT INSTEAD OF PUSHING IT OFF TO THE COAST AS BEFORE.
HOWEVER THIS DIFFERENCE DOES NOT IMPLY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST
TRENDS SINCE THE FRONT SHOULD MAINLY JUST SERVE TO FOCUS DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH CHANCE POPS
THU...BUT WILL KEEP A SCHC OVER MOST AREAS THRU THU NIGHT. WHATEVER
WEAK LLVL FORCING PERSISTS LOOKS UNLIKELY TO FIRE MUCH
CONVECTION...BUT THE MERE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES WARRANT A LOW POP MENTION. BY FRIDAY MODEL QPF RESPONSE FAVORS
THE SC MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY SCHC POPS ARE ADVERTISED...BUT
THESE TOO ARE SLOW TO DIMINISH FRI NIGHT.
CONSENSUS OF NAM/SREF INDICATES CAPE VALUES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE
TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON...1000-2000 J/KG...THOUGH THE GFS IS MORE
STABLE FRIDAY WITH MORE OF THE REGION ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT.
H5 WINDS AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE...AND PWAT VALUES REMAIN
NEAR CLIMO. SEVERE THREAT WITH CELLS WILL BE NONZERO BUT NOT
PARTICULARLY NOTABLE...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY THURSDAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...WHILE SOME VESTIGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS WEEKEND...THE PATTERN ACRS THE
REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY BERMUDA HIGH AT THE SFC. THAT WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FA...BUT INSTEAD OF KEEPING
US CAPPED THRU SUBSIDENCE...BROADLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ABOVE IT
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MODESTLY FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. THIS
IS THE PREVAILING SIGNAL FOR POPS DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
TREND FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.
A FRONT WILL DIVE THRU THE NRN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AS TROUGH DIGS
ACRS ERN CANADA. A WEAK LEADING FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE OH/TN
VALLEYS AND INTO THE AREA MONDAY...ENHANCING PRECIP COVERAGE. THE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES FURTHER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHICH BRINGS THE
STRONGER FRONT SWD TOWARD US. CURRENT GUIDANCE PUTS THIS ON WED
BEYOND THE END OF THE FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
POPPING UP OR MOVING OUT OF THE MTNS AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THIS
MORNING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY SPARSE UNTIL AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS) THROUGH THE PERIOD. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE OR COVERAGE. OUR BEST EDUCATED GUESS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AND ALL
TAFS SEE A PROB30 DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING OR SO.
AT KAVL...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO DEVELOPING NEAR
THE TENN BORDER AND PASSING NEAR THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING...THE
BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON...WHEN A
TEMPO IS BEING CARRIED BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR A
FOGGY NIGHT TO OCCUR AT KAVL...AND WHILE IT IS UNCLEAR THAT TONIGHT
WILL BE THE NIGHT...BASED UPON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...MVFR VISBY
HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TOWARD DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. ANY RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE CONFINED TO DIURNAL TSTMS AND
MORNING VALLEY FOG EACH DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 87% HIGH 86%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 75%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 93%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
645 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB LEVEL SHOWING AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WHILE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH
WAS ROTATING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE U.P. AND NORTHERN WI. RADAR
SHOWING SOME WEAK SHOWER ECHOES WITH THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA WERE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH CALM TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
FOR TODAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH EAST TODAY TAKING COLDEST
POOL OF TEMPERATURE ALOFT WITH IT MORE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NONETHELESS...FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN OVER THE
AREA MAINLY NORTHEAST OF I-94. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING QUITE A BIT
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THAT AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS. WILL KEEP A 20-30 PROBABILITY FOR THAT AREA. REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CUMULUS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI..TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S
ELSEWHERE.
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MOSTLY CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS. THIS WILL SET UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LOWS TONIGHT DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S IN THE
SAND/CRANBERRY COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND IN THE 50S
ELSEWHERE. ALSO...AREAS OF FOG WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER LYING
AREAS/RIVER VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SETTING UP RETURN/SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES LOOK
FOR HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE DAY FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
FEEL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE A WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO FAR SOUTHERN IA/CENTRAL IL. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE/LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA
CENTERED ON FRIDAY. THINKING ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA CLOSER TO NOSE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE
PLAINS WARM FRONT.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA. GFS BUFKIT SHOWING 1000-2000J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 10-15KT RANGE IN THE BEST CAPE
POOL. SO...AN ISOLATED SEVERE PULSE-MODE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL AS A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE AREA. GFS A BIT FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE
ECMWF...SO TIMING NOT SET IN STONE. GFS SHOWING MLCAPE IN THE 1000-
1500J/KG RANGE WITH A LITTLE BETTER 0-3KM SHEAR AROUND 20KT. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND SEVERE THREAT.
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TOWARD THE
REGION. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THUNDERSTORM THREAT
MONDAY WITH TIMING OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY/LEADING EDGE
OF COLDER AIR DURING PEAK HEATING. TUESDAY LOOKING LIKE A
COOL/CLOUDY/POSSIBLY SHOWERY DAY AS DEEP CLOSED LOW/COLD POOL ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
ON SUNDAY...THEN COOLING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH NOT
INCLUDED IN THE KLSE FORECAST...THERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES FOR
VALLEY FOG THURSDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL CAUSE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT WIND LAYER AT KLSE HAS BEEN DEEPENING IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE ALLOWING FOR A BIT BETTER SCENARIO TO DEVELOP FOG
IN THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. SOME SUGGESTION OF 6-7KFT CLOUD IS ALSO
IN THE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THAT OCCURRING IS LOWER.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE INCLUSION OF FOG AT KLSE IN
FUTURE TAFS FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVEL CONTINUES TO FALL. MCGREGOR AND
GUTTENBERG IOWA ARE THE ONLY ARX FORECAST POINTS THAT REMAIN IN
FLOOD. THESE POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
THURSDAY. FOR THE CURRENT AND FORECAST RIVER LEVELS...SEE OUR
INTERNET PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
319 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA OVER THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH SO FAR STORMS
HAVE BEEN WEAKER AND HIGHER BASED THAN YESTERDAY`S ACTIVITY...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS MIXED AT SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. STILL
SOME FAIRLY STRONG INSTABILITY LEFT NEAR THE KS BORDER...WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE STAYED IN THE 50S...LEADING TO CAPES IN THE 1-2K J/KG
RANGE. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...EXPECT SCT
TSRA TO CONTINUE OVER THE MTS...WITH A FEW STORMS DRIFTING ACROSS
THE VALLEYS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR
SUGGEST STORM INTENSITY WON`T BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...ESPECIALLY AS
STORMS MOVE AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STILL...COULD BE A FEW
SMALL POCKETS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY NEAR THE NM BORDER WHERE
INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE BETTER. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
NERN CO BUILDING SOUTHWARD DURING THE EVENING...AS FAIRLY STRONG
SHEAR AND HEALTHY SURFACE S-SE FLOW MAY KEEP STORMS GOING PAST
SUNSET. HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH A FEW CELLS MOVING ACROSS
KIOWA/PROWERS COUNTIES 03Z-04Z. OVERNIGHT...MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIE
DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING OVER THE
SAN JUANS WHERE MODELS SUGGEST DEEPER MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS FROM TODAY...THOUGH WITH
SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING SLIGHTLY EAST TOWARD THE KS BORDER SUSPECT A
LITTLE BETTER MIXING WILL OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...LEADING TO WEAKER/FEWER STORMS ON THE PLAINS/I-25
CORRIDOR. MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY LOOKS LITTLE CHANGED...WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS WITH BETTER
MIXING...WITH READINGS NEAR OR A LITTLE OVER 100F FROM PUEBLO
EASTWARD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MONSOON
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR A DAILY
SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNAL...BUT MAY START A BIT EARLIER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE LATE MORNING HRS...AS WELL AS LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE SCATTERED OVER THE MTS...LIKELY OVER
THE PEAKS...AND MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SAN
LUIS VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH
LATE THU WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO EASTERN CO EARLY
FRI...THEN A REINFORCING BLAST OF COOLER MORE MOIST AIR COMES IN ON
SAT. THIS MEANS VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI...NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS ON SAT...THEN COOLER ON SUN. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PCPN CHANCES FOR THE E PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
I25 CORRIDOR...FOR SAT AND SUN.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS INTRODUCE A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND HEADS TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MON...THEN SWEEPS IT TOWARDS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY MIDWEEK. IF THIS OCCURS...IT MIGHT PUSH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES MORE TO THE SW. FOR NOW...EXPECTED DAY TO DAY
CONVECTION CHANCES DO NOT SEEM TO CHANGE MUCH...SAVE FOR COOLER
TEMPS ON WED. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014
SCT TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
STORMS DRIFTING ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING ALL TAF SITES
21-02Z. IN GENERAL...WITH LESS MOISTURE TODAY TSRA SHOULD BE WEAK
AND HIGHER BASED AND ONLY VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN ALL TAFS FROM
20Z-02Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THU
MORNING. VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WITH TSRA
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DRIFTING TOWARD TAF SITES AFTER 20Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
446 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TOMORROW FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED
FROM SCHOHARIE...ALBANY...AND RENSSELAER COUNTIES IN NY
SOUTH...AND ACROSS ALL OF WRN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 10 PM.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR LARGE HAIL ARE
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 6C/KM...AND ROBUST
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY 500-750 J/KG...AND SBCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG...EXCEPT 1000-1500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BASED ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS RAP DATA. THE BETTER
INSTABILITY IS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE SFC DEWPTS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 60-65F RANGE. THE 0-6 KM EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS
35-40 KTS AND THE SOUNDINGS ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO 300 HPA. SOME CONVECTIVE LINES ARE POSSIBLE WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS 50 KTS AND GREATER. THIS CONVECTION
FIRED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER THINKING BUT SEEMS TO BE
FIRING WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE /1000-1500 J/KG/.
MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO LINES WITH DAMAGING
WIND THREAT.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE
LATEST HIRES WRF AND HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT SHOWS THE SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS ENDING BTWN 00Z-03Z WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...SRN
DACKS...AND WRN NEW ENGLAND /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CT RIVER
VALLEY/...AND JUST WEST OF THE SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. THE
WINDS STAYING UP OVER THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT MAY PREVENT
PATCHY FOG FORMATION.
SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE U50S TO L60S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST. EXPECT MAINLY 50-55F READINGS NORTH AND WEST...WITH SOME
U40S OVER THE SRN DECKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LONGWAVE H500
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS REMAINS UPSTREAM ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH COUPLED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HUNG UP NEAR SE PA/NJ AND
THE DELMARVA REGION MAY ALLOW A WEAK WAVE TO MOVE ALONG IT. THIS
DISTURBANCE DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO NORTH TO
IMPACT THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOME CLOUDS. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
SFC HIGH BUILDING IN SHOULD PROMOTE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. SOME
MID AND U40S WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND WITH A
CONTINUED STRETCH OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE. H850
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 12C TO 14C RANGE WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U70S TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY 70S OVER THE
MTNS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO L60S WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD OF A WEAK WARM
FRONT....AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL
FEATURE TRANQUIL WEATHER AS A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WE WILL BE IN ACTIVE PATTERN AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES RIDING AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SLOWLY MOVES
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC. A SERIES OF
BOUNDARIES AND A COLD FRONT WILL MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION AS
WE GO THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN CANADA. T850 WILL BE BETWEEN 8C AND 11C FROM THE
LATEST 12Z MODELS AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND WITH T500 COLDER THAN
-10C IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AS WE GO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH TEMPERATURES
THAT COLD ALOFT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAILSTONES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AS WE GO
PAST TUESDAY AFTER A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S. TEMPERATURES AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRO THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS TO UPPER 70S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
18Z THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. THE REGION IS ALSO IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE TSTMS...SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS...BUT DUE TO THE ISOLD TO SCT NATURE OF THE CONVECTION
THIS AFTN/EVE...WILL ONLY FORECAST A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSTMS BETWEEN
18Z AND 22Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY CONVECTION WILL END BETWEEN
00Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE PCPN
OCCURS THIS AFTN/EVE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR MVFR/IFR FOG WILL BE
KGFL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MOST OF THE AFTN AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. THE WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY TOWARD SUNSET WITH THE SPEEDS DECREASING. GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY : MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER...THAT WILL LAST
INTO FRIDAY.
THE RH VALUES WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER NEAR FULL RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH DEW
FORMATION WITH THE RH VALUES INCREASING TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
EVENING TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. THE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON THURSDAY...AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH LOCALL HIGHER AMOUNTS.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE TENTH TO HALF
AN INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SOME VERY MINOR RISES ON AREA RIVERS OR STREAMS COULD OCCUR FROM
THE RECENT RAINFALL...OTHERWISE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY...OR FALL SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
404 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TOMORROW FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT...DESPITE THE SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED SO
FAR HAVE REMAINED MAINLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THE LIMITING
FACTORS ARE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN
6C/KM...AND ROBUST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY 500-750
J/KG...AND SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG...EXCEPT 1000-1500 J/KG SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BASED ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS RAP
DATA. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE
SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60-65F RANGE. THE 0-6 KM EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR IS 35-40 KTS AND THE SOUNDINGS ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO 300 HPA. SOME CONVECTIVE LINES ARE
POSSIBLE...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE WHERE ANY STRONGER WINDS MIX
TO THE SFC WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING IS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND BERKS SOUTH...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE
LATEST HIRES WRF AND HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT SHOWS THE SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS ENDING BTWN 00Z-03Z WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...SRN
DACKS...AND WRN NEW ENGLAND /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CT RIVER
VALLEY/...AND JUST WEST OF THE SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. THE
WINDS STAYING UP OVER THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT MAY PREVENT
PATCHY FOG FORMATION.
SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE U50S TO L60S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST. EXPECT MAINLY 50-55F READINGS NORTH AND WEST...WITH SOME
U40S OVER THE SRN DECKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LONGWAVE H500
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS REMAINS UPSTREAM ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH COUPLED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HUNG UP NEAR SE PA/NJ AND
THE DELMARVA REGION MAY ALLOW A WEAK WAVE TO MOVE ALONG IT. THIS
DISTURBANCE DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO NORTH TO
IMPACT THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOME CLOUDS. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
SFC HIGH BUILDING IN SHOULD PROMOTE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. SOME
MID AND U40S WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND WITH A
CONTINUED STRETCH OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE. H850
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 12C TO 14C RANGE WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U70S TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY 70S OVER THE
MTNS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO L60S WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD OF A WEAK WARM
FRONT....AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH A TRANQUIL START TO THE WEATHER ON
SATURDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. NCEP MODEL AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL SUITES DIFFER WITH
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS WPC GUIDANCE OFFERS A MORE STABLE
SOLUTION. THE FORECAST WILL FAVOR A DRIER FORECAST AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE ACTIVE AS AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS DIGGING TROUGH WILL EXPERIENCE
AN INCREASE IN WIND MAGNITUDES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE INCREASING
UPPER DYNAMICS...SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONTS...AND LIKELY
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION BEGINNING SUNDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. WE WILL KEEP POPS WELL INTO THE
SCATTERED CATEGORY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
18Z THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. THE REGION IS ALSO IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE TSTMS...SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS...BUT DUE TO THE ISOLD TO SCT NATURE OF THE CONVECTION
THIS AFTN/EVE...WILL ONLY FORECAST A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSTMS BETWEEN
18Z AND 22Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY CONVECTION WILL END BETWEEN
00Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE PCPN
OCCURS THIS AFTN/EVE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR MVFR/IFR FOG WILL BE
KGFL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MOST OF THE AFTN AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. THE WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY TOWARD SUNSET WITH THE SPEEDS DECREASING. GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER...THAT WILL LAST
INTO FRIDAY.
THE RH VALUES WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER NEAR FULL RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH DEW
FORMATION WITH THE RH VALUES INCREASING TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
EVENING TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. THE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON THURSDAY...AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH LOCALL HIGHER AMOUNTS.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE TENTH TO HALF
AN INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SOME VERY MINOR RISES ON AREA RIVERS OR STREAMS COULD OCCUR FROM
THE RECENT RAINFALL...OTHERWISE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY...OR FALL SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA
...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...
THU-TUE...WEAK MID/UPR LVL WIND PATTERN CONTINUES ACRS THE SRN TIER
STATES WITH RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING WINDS SPEED AOB 30KTS. IN
FACT...OUTSIDE OF AN 80-100KT H30-H20 LIFTING JET EXTENDING FROM THE
MIDWEST INTO SRN QUEBEC...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIG JET
ENERGY ACRS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS OR THE EPAC. THE TEPID NATURE
OF THE CURRENT JET PATTERN WILL ENSURE THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE NW GOMEX AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC VIA THE FL STRAITS...WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR
CENTRAL FL THRU MID JULY.
THIS IS A TYPICAL MID SUMMER WX PATTERN...SO NO BIG SURPRISES IN
STORE THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD TROFFING PATTERN OVER
THE ERN CONUS FED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MAX WILL KEEP THE RIDGE
AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER THE S HALF OF FL THRU THU...GIVING THE EAST
CENTRAL PENINSULA ONE MORE DAY OF 40-60POPS. AS THE TROF DAMPENS AND
LIFT OUT TO THE N...THE ATLC RIDGE WILL DRIFT BACK INTO THE
CENTRAL/NRN PENINSULA WHERE IT WILL REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING OVERHEAD...THE H85-H50 STEERING FLOW
WILL BE QUITE WEAK...GENERALLY AOB 10KTS...WHILE ANY MEANINGFUL
MID/UPR LVL IMPULSES THAT MIGHT PUSH PRECIP CHANCES ABV THE 50PCT
MARK WILL BE BLOCKED OUT. WHILE WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW BOTH SEA
BREEZES TO MAKE GOOD INLAND PENETRATION...THE RESULTING SLOW STORM
MOTION WILL FURTHER LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE. POPS DIMINISHING TO AOB
40PCT ON FRI...THEN AOB 30PCT THRU THE WEEKEND.
GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF DVLPG OVER THE
ERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS
BACK INTO THE SRN PENINSULA AND ALLOW A W/SWRLY FLOW PATTERN TO
RDVLP ACRS CENTRAL FL...SHIFTING THE CONCENTRATION OF DIURNAL
PRECIP BACK TO THE EAST.
MAX/MIN TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG THRU THE PD...BUT NOT BY MORE
THAN 2-3F. AFTN READINGS IN THE U80S/L90S...MRNG READINGS IN THE
L/M70S.
&&
.AVIATION...SEA BREEZE STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING SPREADING INTO THE
INTERIOR WITH A FEW MOVING BACK TOWARDS THE COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF
KMLB. PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY REDUCE VSBYS SOUTH OF MCO (VRB/FPR/SUA)
AGAIN OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH 13Z DUE TO VERY MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND CALM WIND. SEA BREEZE REGIME WITH SCT AFTN STORMS AGAIN
FOR THU.
&&
.MARINE...AFTERNOON-THU...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED NEAR THE
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WITH MAINLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. ONSHORE
FLOW AGAIN BECOMING SW/WSW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP AGAIN EARLY THU AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND WITH
WINDS ONCE AGAIN BACKING E/ESE NEAR THE COAST. THE MAIN MARINE
WEATHER CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE STORMS THAT PRODUCE LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS. THESE SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. DAYTIME HEATING STORMS OVER THE
MAINLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC.
...PREVIOUS EXTENDED MARINE DISCUSSION...
FRI-SUN...WEAK SFC/BNDRY LYR PGRAD THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
ATLC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NWD FROM THE FL STRAITS INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT WITH A PREVAILING LIGHT TO
GENTLE SERLY BREEZE KEEPING SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT
OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 90 76 88 / 30 40 20 40
MCO 75 92 75 91 / 30 50 30 50
MLB 74 88 75 88 / 20 50 20 30
VRB 72 89 74 88 / 20 50 20 30
LEE 76 92 76 91 / 30 50 30 50
SFB 76 93 76 92 / 30 50 30 50
ORL 76 93 76 92 / 30 50 30 50
FPR 73 88 73 87 / 20 50 20 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
655 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER CENTRAL GA ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM FRANKLIN THROUGH CONYERS TO
ATHENS THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME NORTH GA FROM TRENTON
TO DALTON. THE STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE EAST AT 15 KTS BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT. THE POPS OVER THE ATLANTA METRO AREA HAVE
BEEN LOWERED INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AND ALL OF NORTH GA WILL
DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
16/39
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA AT AFD TIME...WITH A
LINE OF CONVECTION ROUGHLY FROM ATHENS TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF ATLANTA
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY /FROM MIDLEVEL CLOUDS UP NORTH/. DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO
LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY ABOUT CONVECTION...NAMELY
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. EXPECT CHANCES TO REMAIN PRETTY HIGH AS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUFR SOUNDINGS
REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
WITH PLENTIFUL SBCAPE...IT IS MAINLY JUST A MATTER OF WHERE
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO GET GOING. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT. DCAPE
VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1000-1300 J/KG ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND ALSO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...WITH AREAS FROM METRO ATLANTA
TO ATHENS TOO LOW FOR MUCH CONCERN. NEW TRENDS IN RAP DATA KEEP THE
HIGH DCAPE VALUES IN PLACE DOWN SOUTH BUT DIMINISH THEM UP NORTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO BEST CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SEVERE WOULD
LIKELY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PLENTIFUL SURFACE MOISTURE WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPS TOMORROW A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL...WITH NEAR-NORMAL
LOWS.
TDP
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO FILL OVER ERN CONUS FRI THRU SUN
WHILE E-W ORIENTED RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER SRN STATES. SHOULD SEE
WARMING TEMPS AND LOWER POPS IN THIS PATTERN. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
STILL LIKELY BUT LESS COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. LARGE UPPER
VORTEX AND TROUGH PROGGED BY 12Z MED RANGE MODELS TO SWING SOUTH
FROM CANADA INTO ERN CONUS AGAIN MONDAY WITH PERIPHERY OF
WESTERLIES AND WEAK FRONT DIPPING INTO GA ON TUES. EXPECT RETURN
TO HIGHER POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMP TUES/WED. MADE ONLY
SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO POPS/WX AND TEMPS WITH MODEST ADJUSTMENTS
TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE.
SNELSON
PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014/
/VALID THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH EASTERN US TROF
CENTERED NEAR 85 WEST AND REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL GA. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND DEPTH OF THE EASTERN TROF. END RESULT IS
MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION PARTICULARLY NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I85 WITH BEST CHANCES ON THURSDAY. MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE
MODEST AND TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME PATTERN...HOWEVER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES PEAK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0
INCHES WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS.
DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY SQUASHING THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTION OF THE AREA...I.E. CSG
TO MCN AND POINTS SOUTH NEAR THE REMNANT FRONT.
WEEKEND...THE GENERAL PATTERN PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH THE TROF AXIS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST OF GA
BY SATURDAY AND SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO NOSE IN FROM THE
WEST...WHILE THE REMNANT FRONT IS ALL BUT A DISTANT MEMORY. END
RESULT WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO POP CHANCES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CAVEAT HERE IS THAT PW VALUES SOAR UP TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2.0 INCHES MAKING FOR A MUGGY WEEKEND. STILL
THINK THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER TO WHERE
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY HAS THE BEST INFLUENCES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT BUT STILL
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE LARGER SCALE TROF WILL BE REINFORCED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING. END RESULT WILL
BE INCREASED POP CHANCES ON MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY TUESDAY. MUCH
CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND THEN SO WILL TREND HIGHER BUT NOT GO
OVERBOARD.
STELLMAN
&&
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITION THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE.
HAVE GONE PREVAILING SHRA EVERYWHERE WITH TEMPO TSRA STARTING 20Z
AND WILL REFINE AS NECESSARY. CONVECTION MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT SO
ADDED VCSH THROUGH 06Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...
LIFTING ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE SO
INTRODUCED PROB30 STARTING AT 15Z. WINDS GENERALLY W THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LOW-END GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND CIGS TONIGHT.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 70 89 69 91 / 60 50 30 30
ATLANTA 71 86 71 89 / 60 40 30 20
BLAIRSVILLE 64 82 63 84 / 60 30 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 68 86 67 89 / 60 30 20 20
COLUMBUS 73 90 73 92 / 50 60 30 30
GAINESVILLE 70 85 69 88 / 60 40 30 20
MACON 71 90 70 91 / 40 60 40 30
ROME 69 87 67 90 / 60 30 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 69 87 68 89 / 60 40 30 20
VIDALIA 73 92 73 90 / 20 60 50 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...TDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA AT AFD TIME...WITH A
LINE OF CONVECTION ROUGHLY FROM ATHENS TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF ATLANTA
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY /FROM MIDLEVEL CLOUDS UP NORTH/. DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO
LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY ABOUT CONVECTION...NAMELY
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. EXPECT CHANCES TO REMAIN PRETTY HIGH AS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUFR SOUNDINGS
REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
WITH PLENTIFUL SBCAPE...IT IS MAINLY JUST A MATTER OF WHERE
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO GET GOING. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT. DCAPE
VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1000-1300 J/KG ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND ALSO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...WITH AREAS FROM METRO ATLANTA
TO ATHENS TOO LOW FOR MUCH CONCERN. NEW TRENDS IN RAP DATA KEEP THE
HIGH DCAPE VALUES IN PLACE DOWN SOUTH BUT DIMINISH THEM UP NORTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO BEST CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SEVERE WOULD
LIKELY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PLENTIFUL SURFACE MOISTURE WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPS TOMORROW A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL...WITH NEAR-NORMAL
LOWS.
TDP
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO FILL OVER ERN CONUS FRI THRU SUN
WHILE E-W ORIENTED RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER SRN STATES. SHOULD SEE
WARMING TEMPS AND LOWER POPS IN THIS PATTERN. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
STILL LIKELY BUT LESS COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. LARGE UPPER
VORTEX AND TROUGH PROGGED BY 12Z MED RANGE MODELS TO SWING SOUTH
FROM CANADA INTO ERN CONUS AGAIN MONDAY WITH PERIPHERY OF
WESTERLIES AND WEAK FRONT DIPPING INTO GA ON TUES. EXPECT RETURN
TO HIGHER POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMP TUES/WED. MADE ONLY
SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO POPS/WX AND TEMPS WITH MODEST ADJUSTMENTS
TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE.
SNELSON
PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014/
/VALID THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH EASTERN US TROF
CENTERED NEAR 85 WEST AND REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL GA. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND DEPTH OF THE EASTERN TROF. END RESULT IS
MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION PARTICULARLY NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I85 WITH BEST CHANCES ON THURSDAY. MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE
MODEST AND TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME PATTERN...HOWEVER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES PEAK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0
INCHES WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS.
DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY SQUASHING THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTION OF THE AREA...I.E. CSG
TO MCN AND POINTS SOUTH NEAR THE REMNANT FRONT.
WEEKEND...THE GENERAL PATTERN PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH THE TROF AXIS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST OF GA
BY SATURDAY AND SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO NOSE IN FROM THE
WEST...WHILE THE REMNANT FRONT IS ALL BUT A DISTANT MEMORY. END
RESULT WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO POP CHANCES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CAVEAT HERE IS THAT PW VALUES SOAR UP TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2.0 INCHES MAKING FOR A MUGGY WEEKEND. STILL
THINK THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER TO WHERE
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY HAS THE BEST INFLUENCES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT BUT STILL
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE LARGER SCALE TROF WILL BE REINFORCED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING. END RESULT WILL
BE INCREASED POP CHANCES ON MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY TUESDAY. MUCH
CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND THEN SO WILL TREND HIGHER BUT NOT GO
OVERBOARD.
STELLMAN
&&
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITION THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE.
HAVE GONE PREVAILING SHRA EVERYWHERE WITH TEMPO TSRA STARTING 20Z
AND WILL REFINE AS NECESSARY. CONVECTION MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT SO
ADDED VCSH THROUGH 06Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...
LIFTING ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE SO
INTRODUCED PROB30 STARTING AT 15Z. WINDS GENERALLY W THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LOW-END GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND CIGS TONIGHT.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 70 89 69 91 / 60 50 30 30
ATLANTA 71 86 71 89 / 60 40 30 20
BLAIRSVILLE 64 82 63 84 / 60 30 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 68 86 67 89 / 60 30 20 20
COLUMBUS 73 90 73 92 / 50 60 30 30
GAINESVILLE 70 85 69 88 / 60 40 30 20
MACON 71 90 70 91 / 40 60 40 30
ROME 69 87 67 90 / 60 30 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 69 87 68 89 / 60 40 30 20
VIDALIA 73 92 73 90 / 20 60 50 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...TDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
112 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND TOWARD THE COASTLINE FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS INLAND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR CLOSE TO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND WILL DISSIPATE BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ONGOING FORECAST LOOKED TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE
SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY T/TD TRENDS WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED INLAND. 12Z KCHS RAOB SHOWED
QUITE DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 1.3
PWATS...AS WELL AS SOME CAPPING NOTED ALOFT. GIVEN
THIS...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY GO OFF A BIT LATER
TODAY. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NSSL WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THAT
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY FIRE OFF THE SEA BREEZE INITIALLY...THEN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO OUR
INLAND ZONES. MODELS HINT THAT CONVECTION WILL FIRE OFF THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH AND THEN WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVE INTO OUR AREA.
COULD NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY
WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS UNLIKELY GIVEN LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT
FORCING.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY...WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S
WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES UP TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONGOING CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW ORIGINATING NEAR THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH COULD BECOME ORGANIZED AND COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD THE
E/SE AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. FURTHER...THIS
CONVECTION COULD INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS MAINLY
INLAND THIS EVENING. THUS...POPS ARE ACTUALLY HIGHER AFTER 6 PM THAN
AT ANY TIME DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. AFTER DARK...THE
SCENARIO BECOMES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE EVENING CONVECTIVE REGIME. IN GENERAL...THE
FORECAST TAPERS POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT DUE TO
THE USUAL INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION. EXCEPT WHERE RAIN
OCCURS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL MOST
AREAS TONIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE UNSETTLED FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. DEEP LAYER RIDGING
WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC...AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW THE INLAND SURFACE
TROUGH TO STRENGTHEN. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER OR
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE
DISSIPATING NEAR THE COASTLINE FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
DEEPEN WITHIN IMPROVED UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FORCING...EVIDENT BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO 2 INCHES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES
ENHANCING TYPICAL SEABREEZE CONVECTION RAISES CONFIDENCE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL PEAK IN THE 50 PERCENT RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN BEST RAIN CHANCES TRANSITION TO THE MARINE
ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK DUE TO LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT...THICKER CLOUDS AND BETTER
RAIN COVERAGE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.
SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
PRESS EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY DAMPENING THE EAST
COAST TROUGH. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE EXTENT THE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH...WITH
DIFFERENCES IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...BOTH
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE INLAND SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILING AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING NEAR 2 INCHES. WILL THUS LEAN
TOWARD SOLID THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST ALONG AND
INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING JUST TO THE SOUTH INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE INLAND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK ON
SUNDAY...THEN STEADILY STRENGTHEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE HIGH THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...SUPPORTING AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EACH
AFTERNOON AS TYPICAL SEABREEZE CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. WILL ADVERTISE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE
30 TO NEAR 40 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...DIMINISHING
OVER LAND AREAS EACH EVENING/NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY
LITTLE THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE CHANCES OF A DIRECT IMPACT
AT EITHER TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED BASED
ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...HOWEVER MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AFTER 18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITHIN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.MARINE...
W/SW WINDS 10-15 KT THIS MORNING...AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT BEYOND 20 NM...
WILL GIVE WAY TO A VIGOROUS SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION PRODUCING
ONSHORE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT ESPECIALLY WITHIN NEARSHORE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. TONIGHT...S/SW WINDS AS HIGH AS
15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 3-4 FT MOST AREAS. BEYOND
20 NM...SEAS AS HIGH AS 5 FT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AND COULD
OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER
OUT TO SEA BY THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MORE SOLID SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOCTURNAL SURGES
UP TO 15 TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...SPR/WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...ECT/SPR
MARINE...ECT/WMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
100 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
335 AM CDT
LOW HUMIDITY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A TRANSITION TOWARD WARMER...MORE
HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE LAKE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AND A DECENT PUSH OF MARINE
COOLING AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE LAKE. GIVEN THE DRIER
AIR MASS UPSTREAM...ANTICIPATE ANY LAKE CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD MIX OUT
PRETTY READILY BY MID TO LATE MORNING...THOUGH WINDS OFF THE LAKE
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S AT THE BEACHES TODAY
WHILE INLAND TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S. MINUS THE LAKE CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A
CARBON COPY OF TODAY.
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE HAS LARGELY SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND RETURN OF BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LATER THIS
WEEK. THIS COULD RESULT IN MOST OF FRIDAY POTENTIALLY ENDING UP
DRY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN CWA. RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A PERTURBED
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
GENERALLY LOOK WARMER WITH MORE HUMIDITY...THOUGH ILL-TIMED MCS
AND/OR DEBRIS CLOUD COVER CERTAINLY COULD PLAY A ROLE IN KEEPING
TEMPS COOLER.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING AND
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK PROVIDING
FOR A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. ECMWF HAS BEEN
DROPPING 850MB TEMPS INTO THE MID SINGLE DIGIT RANGE BY TUES/WED
WHICH IS GETTING TO THE LOWER BOUNDS OF WHAT WE SEE AROUND HERE IN
JULY. NOT UNCOMMON FOR MODELS TO BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD
SNAPS IN THE DAYS 6 AND BEYOND RANGE...BUT REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS NEXT WEEK ARE QUITE LIKELY.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LAKE BREEZE TIMING...NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS AT OR ABOVE 10KT.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME WITH THESE
QUIET AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY CONCERN IS WITH THE LAKE BREEZE AND
TIMING THIS AFTERNOON. MOVEMENT OF THE LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN
VARIABLE OVER THE LAST HOUR...WITH LOWER LEVEL SPEEDS STILL ON THE
HIGHER SIDE. EXPECT THESE STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE CURRENT SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT
INCREASES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH LAKE BREEZE TIMING FOR MDW
WITH IT RAPIDLY APPROACHING AT THIS HOUR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TIMING FOR ORD...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME INCREASE IN THIS MOVEMENT
ANTICIPATED.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT...MEDIUM HIGH
CONFIDENCE WITH SPEEDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH EXACT TIMING.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
216 AM CDT
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE LAKE...WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH DIRECTLY IN
ITS WAKE. IN SPITE OF THIS...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE WIND FIELD ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN
ONSHORE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE DAY TIME
HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
COAST LATER IN THE WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...IT SHOULD ALLOW THE FLOW
TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH OVER THE LAKE INTO THE WEEKEND. IN
ADDITION...INCREASING MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1204 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1005 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2014
Weak surface trough located roughly along I-70 at 10 am, with some
clouds recently developing along it. These will push east of the
forecast area in the next couple hours. Remainder of the forecast
area currently clear, although visible satellite imagery showing a
large area of smoke aloft streaming southeast from the northern
Plains, which has started to brush across western Illinois.
Moisture cross-sections from the RAP model showing some lingering
clouds into early afternoon in southeast Illinois, but subsidence
will keep the remainder of the forecast area mainly sunny.
Made some minor adjustments to the hourly temperatures, which
tweaked the highs by a degree or two. Updated grids have been
sent, but the zone forecasts still appear OK.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1200 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2014
VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Have been
seeing some diurnal cumulus developing around 5000 feet late this
morning, but this should fade with sunset. Northwest winds this
afternoon will diminish and gradually turn more northeast
overnight, as an area of high pressure drifts across Lake Michigan.
Expect scattered clouds developing again around the same time on
Thursday, although there could be some slightly thicker coverage.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday
00Z models are in fair agreement the rest of the work week and
show a more unsettled weather pattern taking shape from Friday
through Monday.
Quiet weather expected through Thu night across central IL with
mostly clear skies and more comfortable humidity levels with
dew points in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Lows in the upper 50s
and lower 60s tonight and Thu night. Highs in the lower 80s today
and Thu with a few upper 70s NE areas. Weak 1018 mb high pressure
over the Plains to settle into MI tonight/Thu bringing the fair
weather to IL. Scattered cumulus clouds to appear late morning and
afternoon and more prevalent in southeast IL.
High pressure strengthens as it shifts into the eastern Great
Lakes and New England Friday with a return southerly flow setting
up over IL. This to bring warmer and more humid air back into the
area especially by Saturday/Sunday. A short wave near the western
states to ridge over top of broad/flat upper level ridge over
central Plains/Rockies and move into WI/IL Friday. This to bring
next chance of showers and thunderstorms to mainly areas from I-57
west Friday and across area Friday night & Saturday. Highs Friday
in low to mid 80s and mid to upper 80s Saturday/Sunday. Dew points
elevate into the mid to upper 60s Friday afternoon (highest
western IL) and low to mid 70s Saturday/Sunday.
LONG TERM...Sunday night through Wednesday
A couple of short waves pass ESE through IL this weekend into
Monday and continue daily chances of showers and thunderstorms in
tropical air mass. Upper level trof digging southward into the
Midwest and Great Lakes region early next week to also drive a
cold front south through central IL Monday afternoon/Monday night.
Cooler temperatures expected behind it Tue/Wed with highs in the
70s and less humid air returning.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1115 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
335 AM CDT
LOW HUMIDITY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A TRANSITION TOWARD WARMER...MORE
HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE LAKE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AND A DECENT PUSH OF MARINE
COOLING AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE LAKE. GIVEN THE DRIER
AIR MASS UPSTREAM...ANTICIPATE ANY LAKE CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD MIX OUT
PRETTY READILY BY MID TO LATE MORNING...THOUGH WINDS OFF THE LAKE
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S AT THE BEACHES TODAY
WHILE INLAND TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S. MINUS THE LAKE CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A
CARBON COPY OF TODAY.
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE HAS LARGELY SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND RETURN OF BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LATER THIS
WEEK. THIS COULD RESULT IN MOST OF FRIDAY POTENTIALLY ENDING UP
DRY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN CWA. RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A PERTURBED
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
GENERALLY LOOK WARMER WITH MORE HUMIDITY...THOUGH ILL-TIMED MCS
AND/OR DEBRIS CLOUD COVER CERTAINLY COULD PLAY A ROLE IN KEEPING
TEMPS COOLER.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING AND
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK PROVIDING
FOR A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. ECMWF HAS BEEN
DROPPING 850MB TEMPS INTO THE MID SINGLE DIGIT RANGE BY TUES/WED
WHICH IS GETTING TO THE LOWER BOUNDS OF WHAT WE SEE AROUND HERE IN
JULY. NOT UNCOMMON FOR MODELS TO BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD
SNAPS IN THE DAYS 6 AND BEYOND RANGE...BUT REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS NEXT WEEK ARE QUITE LIKELY.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* E-NE WINDS LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON WITH A LAKE BREEZE FOR
ORD...AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MDW. SPEEDS NEAR 10 KT POSSIBLE.
KJB/RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE DAY...WILL BE THE WIND
TRENDS WITH A LAKE BREEZE LIKELY TO APPROACH THE TERMINALS BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO LEAD TO A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER 20 UTC. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN
AT OR JUST UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH IN E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW MEDIUM
ON EXACT TIMING.
KJB/RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
216 AM CDT
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE LAKE...WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH DIRECTLY IN
ITS WAKE. IN SPITE OF THIS...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE WIND FIELD ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN
ONSHORE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE DAY TIME
HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
COAST LATER IN THE WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...IT SHOULD ALLOW THE FLOW
TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH OVER THE LAKE INTO THE WEEKEND. IN
ADDITION...INCREASING MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1007 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1005 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2014
Weak surface trough located roughly along I-70 at 10 am, with some
clouds recently developing along it. These will push east of the
forecast area in the next couple hours. Remainder of the forecast
area currently clear, although visible satellite imagery showing a
large area of smoke aloft streaming southeast from the northern
Plains, which has started to brush across western Illinois.
Moisture cross-sections from the RAP model showing some lingering
clouds into early afternoon in southeast Illinois, but subsidence
will keep the remainder of the forecast area mainly sunny.
Made some minor adjustments to the hourly temperatures, which
tweaked the highs by a degree or two. Updated grids have been
sent, but the zone forecasts still appear OK.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 645 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2014
Despite the passage of a weak surface trough today, VFR conditions
should prevail over the next 24 hours. A layer of moisture in the
4k ft level will develop into scattered cumulus during the heat of
the day. A couple of forecast models are indicating a few showers
could develop ahead of the trough, but better chances should
remain southeast of the terminal sites this afternoon.
Winds will start out westerly this morning, then veer to the NW
with the trough passage and increase to around 10kt. Winds will
weaken with sunset and continue veering to the N-NE overnight.
Any reductions to visibility tonight due to fog will be minor and
remain VFR.
Shimon
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday
00Z models are in fair agreement the rest of the work week and
show a more unsettled weather pattern taking shape from Friday
through Monday.
Quiet weather expected through Thu night across central IL with
mostly clear skies and more comfortable humidity levels with
dew points in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Lows in the upper 50s
and lower 60s tonight and Thu night. Highs in the lower 80s today
and Thu with a few upper 70s NE areas. Weak 1018 mb high pressure
over the Plains to settle into MI tonight/Thu bringing the fair
weather to IL. Scattered cumulus clouds to appear late morning and
afternoon and more prevalent in southeast IL.
High pressure strengthens as it shifts into the eastern Great
Lakes and New England Friday with a return southerly flow setting
up over IL. This to bring warmer and more humid air back into the
area especially by Saturday/Sunday. A short wave near the western
states to ridge over top of broad/flat upper level ridge over
central Plains/Rockies and move into WI/IL Friday. This to bring
next chance of showers and thunderstorms to mainly areas from I-57
west Friday and across area Friday night & Saturday. Highs Friday
in low to mid 80s and mid to upper 80s Saturday/Sunday. Dew points
elevate into the mid to upper 60s Friday afternoon (highest
western IL) and low to mid 70s Saturday/Sunday.
LONG TERM...Sunday night through Wednesday
A couple of short waves pass ESE through IL this weekend into
Monday and continue daily chances of showers and thunderstorms in
tropical air mass. Upper level trof digging southward into the
Midwest and Great Lakes region early next week to also drive a
cold front south through central IL Monday afternoon/Monday night.
Cooler temperatures expected behind it Tue/Wed with highs in the
70s and less humid air returning.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
246 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2014
...Update to long term...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
The main challenge in the forecast tonight and Thursday is
precipitation chances, extent, and thunderstorm severity.
Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast
Colorado in vicinity of, or just downstream of Cheyenne Ridge. The
former runs (00Z) of the WRF-ARW and WRF-NMMB cores suggested a
small MCS would develop and roll southeast toward far west-central
Kansas. The latest 12Z runs of both the models, however, are less
aggressive with this idea. That being said, the HRRR (using WRF-ARW
core) late morning runs insist on northeast Colorado activity
evolving southeast through the evening across northeastern Kansas
and eventually into our far northwestern zones (Syracuse to Scott
City). We will maintain some Chance POPs in the far west-central
Kansas counties north of Hwy 50 and generally west of Hwy 283
through the evening.
Another MCS will either roll south-southeast out of Nebraska and
interact with the western MCS or remain a separate entity all
together and redevelop around 04-06Z across north central/central
Kansas along a strengthening zone of warm frontogenesis in the
850-750mb layer. We will have some 40 POPs from Hays to Pratt in the
05-12Z time frame, but these may need to be raised early this
evening if short term trends favor a more western scenario for
potential MCS. The overall severe weather threat looks fairly
minimal, despite a SLGT risk being issued by SPC. Any large hail
threat would be confined to areas of far west-central Kansas (but
more likely across northeastern Colorado and northwestern Kansas)
with strong straight-line winds to 65 mph the most likely threat
with any bowing segments during the mid to late evening hours. After
that, a very heavy rain threat will develop during the overnight
hours across central Kansas. It remains to be seen, though, how far
west the core of the nocturnal MCS will be. It seems most likely
this will stay across portions of central and south central Kansas
just east of our forecast area (east of a Hays to Pratt line).
Going in to the day Thursday, a warmer day is forecast with warmer
overall temperatures in the lower troposphere (to +29C at 850mb as
far east as the Hwy 283 corridor). This should allow surface
temperatures late afternoon reaching close to, if not 100F
(especially along/west of Hwy 83 where evapotransporation will be
less). A fairly strong gradient will yield a windier day with
south-southwest winds 20 to 23 knots sustained in the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
Thursday night/Friday:
Minimums overnight Thursday will be quite mild - 70s - as southerly
winds continue through the overnight in association with continued
surface lee troughing.
Friday will be a hot day with max values at 97-100F. There will be
a slight chance for tstms from Hugoton to Hays and points west, but
convection may remain out of the area and limited to eastern Colorado
and into southwest Nebraska. Another mild night with widespread 70s
for lows is expected heading into Saturday morning.
Saturday and beyond:
A slightly better chance of coverage of storms is expected Saturday
as a frontal boundary sinks farther to the south across Kansas. Ahead
of the front, temperatures will be quite hot with values around 100F.
A weak cool down is expected Sunday as the front heads south and slightly
cooler 850-hPa temperatures advect across the region. Will have to watch
out for convection across the western zones in this upslope flow pattern.
The EC indicates another shot for an MCS Monday, as northwesterly flow
aloft and low-level upslope flow continues across the High Plains.
The best chance for precip area-wide is expected Tuesday as a rather
cold air mass (for July standards) moves across the Plains. The EC has
been very consistent with this cool down and associated precipitation.
850-hPa temperatures by the middle portion of next decrease as low as
8-10C! Very pleasant and highly abnormal Summer weather in regards to
temperatures is possible in about a week from now with highs in the
70/80s and lows possibly in the 50s! The front could slow down, so exact
timing is in question. Stuck with the allblend temperature solution
for now.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
The lee trough will continue to strengthen across eastern Colorado,
increasing the pressure gradient and resulting surface winds. Wind
speeds during the afternoon hours will range from 15 to 19 knots
with gusts in the mid to upper 20s knots out of the southeast. Winds
will decrease slightly during the overnight hours. At this time,
thunderstorm activity will not be included in any three of the
terminals (DDC, GCK, HYS) given low confidence of any thunderstorm
impacts. Thunderstorms will likely make an approach to GCK late this
evening, however more than likely in a weakening state (or even
completely dissolved by the time they reach GCK). Another overnight
cluster of thunderstorms will develop across central Kansas, but HYS
appears to be on the western edge of any of this activity with a
much higher probability of thunderstorms east of HYS overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 97 72 98 / 10 10 0 10
GCK 66 98 71 99 / 20 10 0 20
EHA 68 98 71 97 / 20 0 0 20
LBL 68 99 71 99 / 10 0 0 10
HYS 66 95 72 99 / 40 10 10 20
P28 68 96 72 98 / 20 30 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2014
...Updated Short Term Section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
The main challenge in the forecast tonight and Thursday is
precipitation chances, extent, and thunderstorm severity.
Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast
Colorado in vicinity of, or just downstream of Cheyenne Ridge. The
former runs (00Z) of the WRF-ARW and WRF-NMMB cores suggested a
small MCS would develop and roll southeast toward far west-central
Kansas. The latest 12Z runs of both the models, however, are less
aggressive with this idea. That being said, the HRRR (using WRF-ARW
core) late morning runs insist on northeast Colorado activity
evolving southeast through the evening across northeastern Kansas
and eventually into our far northwestern zones (Syracuse to Scott
City). We will maintain some Chance POPs in the far west-central
Kansas counties north of Hwy 50 and generally west of Hwy 283
through the evening.
Another MCS will either roll south-southeast out of Nebraska and
interact with the western MCS or remain a separate entity all
together and redevelop around 04-06Z across north central/central
Kansas along a strengthening zone of warm frontogenesis in the
850-750mb layer. We will have some 40 POPs from Hays to Pratt in the
05-12Z time frame, but these may need to be raised early this
evening if short term trends favor a more western scenario for
potential MCS. The overall severe weather threat looks fairly
minimal, despite a SLGT risk being issued by SPC. Any large hail
threat would be confined to areas of far west-central Kansas (but
more likely across northeastern Colorado and northwestern Kansas)
with strong straight-line winds to 65 mph the most likely threat
with any bowing segments during the mid to late evening hours. After
that, a very heavy rain threat will develop during the overnight
hours across central Kansas. It remains to be seen, though, how far
west the core of the nocturnal MCS will be. It seems most likely
this will stay across portions of central and south central Kansas
just east of our forecast area (east of a Hays to Pratt line).
Going in to the day Thursday, a warmer day is forecast with warmer
overall temperatures in the lower troposphere (to +29C at 850mb as
far east as the Hwy 283 corridor). This should allow surface
temperatures late afternoon reaching close to, if not 100F
(especially along/west of Hwy 83 where evapotransporation will be
less). A fairly strong gradient will yield a windier day with
south-southwest winds 20 to 23 knots sustained in the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
Thunderstorms are likely across portions of central Kansas early
Thursday morning as an upper level shortwave coming off the ridge
axis across the Colorado Rockies dips southeast across the Central
Plains. Increased convergence/forcing ahead of the advancing surface
trough along with ample low/mid level moisture will be enough to
support convection across central Kansas as the aforementioned
shortwave dives southeast across the region. Drier conditions
are then likely Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon as
the upper level ridge axis shifts eastward across the Western
High Plains. Going into the weekend, medium range models indicate
the upper level ridge breaking down somewhat as it moves further
east into the Central Plains returning a southwest flow aloft to
portions of the Rocky Mountain Region. The GFS/ECMWF hint at H5
vort maxima ejecting eastward out of the Central Rockies providing
the focus for possible thunderstorms lee of the front range Friday
night into Saturday. Although the flow aloft will remain fairly
weak, forcing associated with a surface trough and enough
instability will exist to support thunderstorm development across
eastern Colorado late Friday afternoon with storms potentially
moving into western Kansas overnight through early Saturday.
Warmer temperatures are likely Thursday as a prevailing lee side
trough continues to influence a southerly flow across western
Kansas. This will enhance warm air advection into the area with
H85 temperatures climbing into the mid 20s(C) across central Kansas
to near 30C closer to the Colorado border. Highs will reach well
into the 90s(F) Thursday afternoon with similar highs expected
each day going into the weekend as upper level ridging moves out
of the Rockies across the Western High Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
The lee trough will continue to strengthen across eastern Colorado,
increasing the pressure gradient and resulting surface winds. Wind
speeds during the afternoon hours will range from 15 to 19 knots
with gusts in the mid to upper 20s knots out of the southeast. Winds
will decrease slightly during the overnight hours. At this time,
thunderstorm activity will not be included in any three of the
terminals (DDC, GCK, HYS) given low confidence of any thunderstorm
impacts. Thunderstorms will likely make an approach to GCK late this
evening, however more than likely in a weakening state (or even
completely dissolved by the time they reach GCK). Another overnight
cluster of thunderstorms will develop across central Kansas, but HYS
appears to be on the western edge of any of this activity with a
much higher probability of thunderstorms east of HYS overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 97 72 98 / 10 10 0 10
GCK 66 98 71 99 / 20 10 0 20
EHA 68 98 71 97 / 20 0 0 20
LBL 68 99 71 99 / 10 0 0 10
HYS 66 95 72 99 / 40 10 10 20
P28 68 96 72 98 / 20 30 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1245 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
09/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACRS THE AREA WITH SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING NEAR THE ACADIANA TERMINALS. BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE. AT THIS
TIME...KEPT VC MENTION IN LA TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AMENDING WITH TEMPO GROUPS AS
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED. ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN
THIS EVENING. VFR AND LT VRBL OR SWLY WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW PLENTIFUL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT SKIRTING THE NERN ZONES ATTM. MEANWHILE A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE POPPED UP IN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER
THE SERN ZONES. ALL THIS GOES ALONG WELL WITH INHERITED
GRIDS/ZONES OTHER THAN MAYBE DEVELOPING A COUPLE OF HOURS QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THEREFORE SIMPLY PUSHED AFTERNOON POPS
UP A BIT TO ACCOUNT. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADARS IN
CASE POPS NEED TO BE INCREASED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ACADIANA.
ELSEWHERE JUST VERY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO GRIDS/ZONES.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/
AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LIMITED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS AND ACADIANA THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. BEGINNING TO SEE SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ADVANCING SOUTHEAST. THIS AHEAD OF A MORE VIGOROUS COMPLEX
OVER ARKANSAS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BPT...WILL CARRY ALL OTHER
TERMINALS WITH VCTS THROUGH TODAY. APPEARS THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA MAY BE TOO LIMITED FOR DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE TRIGGERED BY INCOMING OUTFLOWS/DISTURBANCES FROM THE
NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING BUT WEAK SEA BREEZE. END ANY FURTHER
PRECIP WITH THE SETTING SUN. STILL ANTICIPATING VFR TO PREVAIL
AGAIN TODAY WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LOTS TO LOOK AT THIS MORNING STARTING ALOFT...LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD
ON THE IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING ADVANCING SOUTHWARD IN THE 500MB
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS CLOUD COVER ORIGINATED FROM CONVECTION
FIRING OFF ON A COOL FRONT WHICH WAS DRAPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE DIGITAL
GRIDS TO SHOW THIS ADVANCING CLOUD SHIELD WHICH SHOULD THIN OUT
LATER THIS MORNING.
ALSO THIS MORNING...LCH RADAR SHOWED CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN CAMERON AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WITH AREA SOUNDING PROFILES UP
OVER 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS
DISSIPATING AS IT REACHED LAND.
TODAY EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND THIN
OUT SOME AS IT MAKES IT WAY DOWN INTO THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION. AS
LAND HEATS UP ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS....WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
CONVECTION BEGIN TO FIRE ON LAND MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...BOTH THE WRF LOCAL MODEL AND THE HRRR SHOW
AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD TO SOME OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AREAS OF LOUISIANA...TO A LESSER DEGREE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. WILL GO WITH LOWEST POPS INLAND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...HOWEVER
MOSTLY 20 PERCENT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
WHERE HIGHER POPS WILL BE FOUND.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY NOT GET FURTHER THAN NORTHERN LOUISIANA BEFORE
WASHING OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY OUR REGION WILL
STAY IN A COL BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF
US...AND HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF US.
IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS COL...PRETTY MUCH EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING...
SEABREEZE...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO DISTRIBUTE THE RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND...MAY BEGIN TO SEE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM NORTH TEXAS BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. SO
EXPECT...LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOR MOST OF US...HOT DAYS AND WARM NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. SOME MAY GET LUCKY ENOUGH TO GET SOME RAIN COOLED
AIR...BUT MOST WILL LIKELY JUST STAY ON THE DRIER SIDE AS WE GET
INTO THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE LOWER END OF THE SCALE THROUGH THE 5 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TREND AS WELL WITH
LOWER HEIGHTS. LATE NIGHT CONVECTION 20NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE BUT MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.
06
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 92 74 91 74 / 30 10 30 10
KBPT 92 75 91 75 / 20 10 30 10
KAEX 94 74 93 73 / 20 10 30 10
KLFT 92 75 91 74 / 30 10 40 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
321 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
MODELS IN RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER MOST OF
THE CONUS WILL BE NEAR ZONAL WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF RUSHES
ACROSS CANADA. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THEN...PATTERN IS PROGGED TO
BEGIN AMPLIFYING WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WRN CONUS BY SAT AFTN. MEANWHILE...GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN IN EARNEST LATER TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND
ALLOWS MOISTURE TO SLIDE UP ALONG THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. APPEARS THAT
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE THEN THRU THE FCST PD.
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC WAS SHOWING CLUSTER OF TSTMS FROM S-CNTRL SD
INTO N-CNTRL NEB MOVING SE WITHIN POCKET OF MID LYR ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND EXPAND INTO THE WRN CWA THEN EARLY
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY THE REST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MAIN ISSUE IS PINNING DOWN PLACEMENT/TIMING THUNDER POPS
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...REASONABLE ASSUME ON THUR NIGHT/FRI
NIGHT...LLVL JET AND FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/THETA-E CONVG
WITHIN BNDRY LYR WILL HELP INDUCE NOCTURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY. AS FOR
SVR TSTMS...NAM IS ADVERTISING POSSIBLE SVR DEVELOPMENT THUR NIGHT
OVER N-CNTRL NEB WITH MUCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL
SHEAR. ALL THIS IN PART TO LEESIDE SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT THERMAL
BNDRY EXTENDING FROM ABOUT NERN CO TO NERN SD. GFS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
AT THAT TIME THOUGH IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER.
NEVERTHELESS...SITUATION BEARS WATCHING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN CMC/ECM/GFS EARLY ON THAT AMPLIFICATION
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS UPPER
TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. AT
THIS POINT DETERMINISTIC ECM/GFS AS WELL AS ECMENS/CMCENS ALL
INDICATE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL BECOME STAGNANT AND ALLOW A RATHER
COOL AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON TO EXPAND SWD INTO THE
REGION DAY 6 AND 7. EXPECT THEN A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL SEE WELL BELOW NORMAL AFTN TEMPS TUES AND WED. GOING POPS IN
THE EXT PDS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONE AREA THAT MAY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS IS
THE KLNK AREA SHRA AND TSRA IS POSSIBLE IN KLNK AFTER 00Z AND
WOULD BE IN THE STRONGER CELLS. SMOKE PLUME FROM FIRES IN CANADA
ARE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY IN NEBRASKA
AND IOWA. ASIDE FROM SLIGHTLY HAZY SKY CONDITIONS...THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON VISIBILITIES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
318 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS A CONTINUATION OF THE
RIDGE/TROUGH REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED SOUTH FROM NORTHERN CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. RIDGING
EXTENDED NORTH FROM HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SRN UTAH INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...A NICE 40 TO 45 KT SPEED MAX EXTENDED FROM
WESTERN NEBRASKA NWD INTO WESTERN SD AND MT. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
A VERY WEAK CAP...HAS SUPPORTED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. SO FAR...STORMS HAVE LARGELY REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
THROUGH THE MORNING...HOWEVER...WITH INCREASED HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN STRENGTH GIVEN THE DECENT
DEGREE OF BULK SHEAR. AS OF 3 PM CDT...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 62 IN RAIN COOLED AIR AT
AINSWORTH...TO 90 AT IMPERIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. FOR
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING
AND MAY POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PRESENCE OF A
LOW LEVEL JET ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ATTM CONFIDENCE IN
PCPN PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT IS NOT HIGH ATTM AS THE NAM SOLN
IS A TAD FARTHER EAST WITH ITS LOW LEVEL JET AND THE HRRR SOLN
PUSHES THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. THURSDAY
MORNING WILL BE QUIET ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SURFACE HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY 21Z THURSDAY. H85 TO H7 LAPSE
RATES WILL APPROACH 9.5 TO 10C THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE
CAP WILL WEAKEN INVOF A SURFACE TROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
ATTM...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE MID AFTERNOON IN THE
PANHANDLE AND TRACK EAST. ATTM...WILL CONFINE PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS LOCATIONS IN THE EAST ARE
STRONGLY CAPPED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FORECASTING
CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY AND WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING...WITH 35
TO 45 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR THURSDAY EVENING. INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM SWRN NEBRASKA INTO
NERN NEBRASKA...WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR STORMS TO
CONTINUE...HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR DECREASES TO 20 TO 30 KTS OVERNIGHT. ON
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL EITHER IN SOUTHWESTERN KS TO SERN
NEBRASKA PER THE NAM SOLN OR FROM NWRN KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA PER THE GFS SOLN. THE GFS GENERATES A NICE AREA OF POST
FRONTAL MID LEVEL LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THIS IS
LARGELY ABSENT IN THE NAM SOLN. EVEN WITH A MODEL COMPROMISE AND THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KS...DECENT MID LEVEL LIFT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER THE GFS SOLN IS
HARD TO IGNORE. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL CONTINUE POPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL WASH
OUT...ALLOWING SRLY WINDS TO SURGE NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLE. THETA E
RIDGING AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLE
AS WELL LEADING TO 1500 TO 2500 J/KG CAPES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE QUICKLY LATE SAT AFTERNOON...WITHIN A
WEAKLY CAPPED AREA IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION EAST SAT EVENING AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE WITH FCST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL FORCE A STRONG
NRN STREAM COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FEATURE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
AMPLITUDE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH DO FIRE TO THE WEST UNDERNEATH THE
THETA E AXIS...SHOULD STAY MAINLY OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA GIVEN THE NWRLY STEERING WINDS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND POPS GENERALLY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO AND SERN WYOMING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/S FORMING INVOF THE SANDHILLS REGION AND/OR SW
NEBRASKA AND MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY
ERRATIC WIND WOULD BE EXPECTED WITHIN OR NEAR ANY STORM. OTHERWISE
WERE WATCHING STORMS THAT MAY IMPACT KVTN OR KANW EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
HAIL...BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WIND. CONDITIONS WILL
QUIET THIS EVENING...BUT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AOA
10KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
146 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION IN BETWEEN AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVERHEAD WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW PROGGED TO SET UP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 TODAY. YESTERDAY`S VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE SMOKE PLUME STRETCHING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADIAN FIRES INTO THE DAKOTAS. IF THICK
ENOUGH...THIS COULD LIMIT TEMPS TODAY AS WELL BUT THAT IS TOUGH TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT. THE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP DO
INDICATE AN AREA OF PCPN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A QUICK MOVING IMPULSE DROPPING
THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND
SO THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP
OVER OUR WESTERN CWA AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
NOSE OF MODEST LLVL JET SHIFTS EASTWARD.
A BIT OF A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
WHILE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION BRINGS JULY MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION. ELONGATED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF IT. BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE NOCTURNAL AS THE
NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLVL JET ADVECTS EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD AID IN ELEVATED TSTMS
ACROSS THE CWA. THE SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS FRIDAY...PLACING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE KS/NEB BORDER
BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
ROUNDS OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT ANY ONE PARTICULAR PERIOD SO HAVE LEFT SMALL
POPS IN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
CONTINUOUS ACTIVITY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONE AREA THAT MAY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS IS
THE KLNK AREA SHRA AND TSRA IS POSSIBLE IN KLNK AFTER 00Z AND
WOULD BE IN THE STRONGER CELLS. SMOKE PLUME FROM FIRES IN CANADA
ARE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY IN NEBRASKA
AND IOWA. ASIDE FROM SLIGHTLY HAZY SKY CONDITIONS...THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON VISIBILITIES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
319 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...FINE CU FIELD BUILDING RIGHT ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INLAND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING TIP OF CAPE FEAR THE SUNNIEST SPOT. HRRR MODEL
FORECAST HOLDING WELL SO FAR AS BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST JUST WEST OF FORECAST AREA.
MODELS SHOWED THIS LINE DIMINISHING AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP POPS AS IS WITH POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED SHWR ALONG SEA BREEZE AND CHC POPS OVER INLAND COUNTIES
MAINLY LATER TODAY. DEW POINT TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE MID 60S INLAND
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 70 ALONG THE COAST IN A
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST AIR AT THE SURFACE
AROUND BERMUDA HIGH. OVERALL VERY WARM DAY WITH SPOTTY CU FIELD
LEAVING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS INTO THE 90S MOST
PLACES.
LATEST MOISTURE PROFILES KEEP VERY DRY MID LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ONE LAST DAY.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THIS EVENING BUT
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
HEATING OF THE DAY CUTS OFF. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL
LIE MAINLY TO OUR WEST AS PIEDMONT TROUGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT DRIVE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH EAST PROVIDING MUCH GREATER
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION AND THIS MAY REACH FAR ENOUGH INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THIS EVENING TO TRIGGER SOME SHWRS/TSTMS WHICH MAY
REACH INTO WESTERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING
THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE POOLING
AHEAD OF IT AND INCREASED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HEADING INTO THURS.
MAY SEE SOME SHWRS/TSTMS AROUND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURS BUT
MAIN ACTIVITY WILL COME LATER IN THE DAY. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AHEAD
WITH TEMPS DROPPING BUT REMAINING IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE THIS FRONT
WILL STALL AND ABOVE THE SURFACE PRECIPTABLE WATERS WILL INCREASE
TO 2 PLUS INCHES. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PARALLEL THE FRONT AND THE
850 TO 700 MB WINDS WILL BE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. EVEN HIGHER THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE 300 MB JET WILL INCREASE SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT. SO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MIDDAY CONTINUE TO BE HIGH. BY FRIDAY
MIDDAY THE SYNOPTIC SCALE VORTICITY HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND IT
WILL DRAG THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT THE CHANCES FOR THE
HEAVY RAIN TO DIMINISHED AT THIS TIME.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S ON THURSDAY IF THE
CONVECTION HOLD OFF AND CLOUDS AND RAIN DO NOT COOL THE ATMOSPHERE
TO QUICKLY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE EVEN LOWER WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN
KEEP THE HIGHS AT BAY AND REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER
70S FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...REMAINS OF COLD FRONT STILL SHOWING UP
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. BETWEEN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHERE IT STALLS PAIRED WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING WHICH SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY IS FAVORED FOR PRECIP WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS
AREA-WIDE 40-ISH POP. THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ON SUNDAY AND A VERY
WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY BE DEVELOPING. ITS STILL HARD TO SHOW ANY
PARTICULAR FAVORED AREA FOR POPS BUT WILL SHOW A SMALL DOWNWARD
TREND DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL DRYING. MONDAY SHOULD OFFER SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND A SEASONABLE DISTRIBUTION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AS
THE AREA FINDS ITSELF BETWEEN A VERY WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER FL AND AN
UNSEASONABLY LARGE/STRONG VORTEX DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FEATURE A RETURN OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND A
SLIGHT VEERING OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW. RAINFALL CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE JUST SLIGHTLY WHILE TEMPS
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MODELS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN CONVECTION
TO THE WESTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS LITTLE
OR NO CONVECTION AT ALL. WILL ADD VCTS TO THE WESTERN
TERMINALS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. AREAS THAT RECEIVE
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARD MORNING.
THURSDAY...MORE ACTIVE WITH THE CONVECTION AS THE DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST AND WE ARE IN A MORE FAVORABLE
REGIME FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT A MORNING SHOWER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION WITH A DECENT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
2 AND 4 FT AS GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH THE NIGHT LEAVING WINDS OF 15
KTS OR LESS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST LATE
THURSDAY THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS BUT THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AT THE COAST AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS FRIDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 3 FEET ON THURSDAY BUT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 2 FEET BY
FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A
WEAKENING FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CAST A
SMALL DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO WIND DIRECTION BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANT. THIS BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT BY SUNDAY AS A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS. THIS MAY BE
GOOD FOR ABOUT A 5KT/1FT INCREASE IN CONDITIONS. A SIMILAR OR EVEN
LARGER INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE SLATED FOR MONDAY. BROAD
CYCLONIC CURVATURE AROUND A LARGE STORM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
RESPONSIBLE FOR TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT LOCALLY. HEADLINES OR EVEN
AND ADVISORY APPEAR POSSIBLE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
206 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL
WASH OUT DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...FINE CU FIELD BUILDING RIGHT ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INLAND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING TIP OF CAPE FEAR THE SUNNIEST SPOT. HRRR MODEL
FORECAST HOLDING WELL SO FAR AS BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST JUST WEST OF FORECAST AREA.
MODELS SHOWED THIS LINE DIMINISHING AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP POPS AS IS WITH POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED SHWR ALONG SEA BREEZE AND CHC POPS OVER INLAND COUNTIES
MAINLY LATER TODAY. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE MID 60S INLAND
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 70 ALONG THE COAST IN A
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST AIR AT THE SURFACE AROUND
BERMUDA HIGH. OVERALL VERY WARM DAY WITH SPOTTY CU FIELD LEAVING A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS INTO THE 90S MOST PLACES.
LATEST MOISTURE PROFILES KEEP VERY DRY MID LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ONE LAST DAY.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THIS EVENING BUT
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
HEATING OF THE DAY CUTS OFF. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL
LIE MAINLY TO OUR WEST AS PIEDMONT TROUGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT DRIVE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH EAST PROVIDING MUCH GREATER
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION AND THIS MAY REACH FAR ENOUGH INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THIS EVENING TO TRIGGER SOME SHWRS/TSTMS WHICH MAY
REACH INTO WESTERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING
THISCOLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE POOLING
AHEAD OF IT AND INCREASED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HEADING INTO THURS.
MAY SEE SOME SHWRS/TSTMS AROUND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURS BUT
MAIN ACTIVITY WILL COME LATER IN THE DAY. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AHEAD
WITH TEMPS DROPPING BUT REMAINING IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...THE END OF THE WEEK IS SET TO FEATURE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SEASONABLE TEMPS...AS A
COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP IN THE VICINITY. THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA THURSDAY...AND THEN GET HUNG UP LOCALLY AS THE VORT ENERGY
DRIVING IT HANGS WELL BACK WEST OF THE AREA. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
RISE UP ABOVE 2 INCHES THURSDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH SBCAPE ABOVE
1000 J/KG...SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND STRONG
DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE RFQ OF A 100KT UPPER JET...SHOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD TSTMS WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ON FRIDAY...THE
SETUP REMAINS VERY SIMILAR...UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE AND
SHEAR AXIS FINALLY SWINGS EAST...CAUSING SLOWLY DRYING MID-LEVELS ON
W/NW FLOW. THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES WASHED OUT...AND NEVER REALLY
CROSSES FULLY OFFSHORE...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH HIGHER POP WARRANTED ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES THAN ON THURSDAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO
WANE AS MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE MID-LEVELS OCCURS...AS
CLEARLY EVIDENT ON FORECAST PROFILES FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS THURSDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 90S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT REMAIN COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER STILL THANKS TO MORE
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND COOLER THICKNESSES. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MID 70S...BEFORE FALLING TO SEASONABLE
VALUES AROUND 70 ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND WILL
CREATE A DRYING TREND SAT/SUN WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL RIDGE BLOSSOMS FROM THE SOUTH...IT BECOMES STRUNG
OUT WEST-TO-EAST THANKS TO DEVELOPING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGHING...AND WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM THE AREA...LEAVING TEMPS
AROUND CLIMO NORMS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE COAST...KEEPING
WARM/MOIST RETURN FLOW FLOODING INTO THE AREA...AND THUS EVEN THOUGH
MID-LEVELS WILL BE DRY...TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH
DAY DURING THE WKND. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH THEN DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRIVING A COLD FRONT AND HEIGHT FALLS
INTO THE CAROLINAS...WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING COLUMN
MOISTURE AND...EXPECTANTLY...INCREASING POP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS INTO NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...BUT LOWS WILL BE SEVERELY TEMPERED BY RETURN FLOW AND CLOUD
COVER...REMAINING SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MODELS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN CONVECTION
TO THE WESTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS LITTLE
OR NO CONVECTION AT ALL. WILL ADD VCTS TO THE WESTERN
TERMINALS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. AREAS THAT RECEIVE
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARD MORNING.
THURSDAY...MORE ACTIVE WITH THE CONVECTION AS THE DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST AND WE ARE IN A MORE FAVORABLE
REGIME FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT A MORNING SHOWER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION WITH A DECENT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
2 AND 4 FT AS GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH THE NIGHT LEAVING WINDS OF 15
KTS OR LESS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY...AND THEN WASH
OUT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS CREATES A PINCHED GRADIENT
THURSDAY...WITH SW WINDS AROUND 15 KTS COMMON ON THURSDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...WHILE DECREASING IN
SPEED TO AROUND 10 KTS AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS NEAR THE DISSIPATING
BOUNDARY. SEAS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HIGHEST THURSDAY ON THE
STRONGER WINDS...REACHING 3-4 FT WITH A SW WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP. ON FRIDAY THESE WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT WITH A MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE DEVELOPING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THE WKND AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE RIDGES
BACK TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS. WHILE THE SW WINDS THIS CREATES
WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS...THEY WILL RISE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO 15-20 KTS LATE SUNDAY. AN INCREASING SE GROUND
SWELL AND SW WIND WAVE WILL DRIVE SEAS UPWARD THROUGH THE WKND AS
WELL...FROM 1-3 FT EARLY SATURDAY...TO 3-4 FT BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION HAS MAINLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. NEW
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN NORTH TEXAS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CU FIELD EXTENDS FROM THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR AMARILLO. RECENT HRRR RUNS...DEVELOP STORMS IN
THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AND MOVE STORMS GENERALLY EAST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THIS
SEEM PLAUSIBLE.
OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN WESTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ENTER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD GREATLY REDUCE
RAIN/STORM CHANCES. HOT WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE WEEKEND.
NOT SURE IF HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...MOST MODELS PUSH A SIGNIFICANT FRONT INTO
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS (AT LEAST BY JULY STANDARDS). THE FRONT
ALONG WITH A DECENT WAVE...MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
542 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN
PLACE THURSDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT BY FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 530 PM...A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PUSHING ACROSS
THE I-77 CORRDIOR. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS OVER
THE NEXT TWO HOURS ACROSS THE CLT METRO AREA. OUTFLOW GOVERNED
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING THROUGH THE EVENING...I WILL
UPDATE WITH OBS.
AT 215PM...MOST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AT MID AFTERNOON IS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UPSTATE EASTWARD INTO NC. NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPED IN A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS CREATED BY CLOUD COVER TO NORTH EARLIER
TODAY. PLUS THE LEE TROF HAS PROVIDED SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE DEPICTED BY THE RAP IS ALSO CROSSING THE AREA.
SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS PER CAMS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT TYPE POPS
THOSE AREAS. SHOULD SEE THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WANE THIS EVENING
AS S/W MOVES TO THE E. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
WHICH COULD KICK OFF SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL
SHOW AN UPTICK IN POPS OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING AGAIN. THE 12Z GFS
SEEMS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OVER FAR WESTERN NC IN THE
00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AND WILL NOT BUY INTO THE HIGH GFS QPF DEPICTED
THERE.
ON THU...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE PIEDMONT. THE MODELS
DEPICT A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD TEND TO
ENHANCE THE COVERAGE NEAR IT. PLUS...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA. HENCE...WILL STAY WITH THE IDEA OF
SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER POPS TO THE NORTH. SOUNDINGS LOOK MORE
SATURATED WITH LESS DCAPE...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
SEVERE THREAT. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW
CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES THURSDAY
EVENING WITH A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED JUST
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 INTO THE MIDLANDS OF SC...STRETCHING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NC. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AS HEATING WILL HAVE STEEPENED LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SAID
CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF WILL BE
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING H5 HEIGHTS TO RISE. POPS WILL
TAPER DOWN DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND HEATING LOSS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
POTENTIAL WEAK MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY
MORNING ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS COMBINED WITH FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CWFA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NC/SC PIEDMONT WHERE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND INCREASED MOISTURE YIELD SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500J/KG.
THUS WILL FAVOR LOW END CHANCE LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND
ALSO ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE EAST SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AIDS
CONVECTION. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING WARRANTS TAPERED POPS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND...AND WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS. THIS COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION EARLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE WEAK CIN IS OVERCOME
BY HEATING. EXPECTING INITIATION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT PROPAGATES SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT REGIONS OF
NC/SC. DIURNALLY FAVORED LOW/MID LEVEL CHANCE POPS WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL BE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUE...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT UPPER H5 HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES MON THROUGH WED.
AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE EAST BY EARLY MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT ON TUE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA WED AS A CONTINENTAL HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. AS FOR OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER...POPS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO EACH DAY GIVEN LITTLE TO
NO CAPPING ALOFT AND SEASONABLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. TEMPERATES WILL REMAIN NEAR...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLT...MAIN CONCERN AS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR IS WHEN AND IF THE
AIRFIELD WILL SEE THUNDER. MOST CONVECTION AT THE MOMENT REMAINS SOUTH
OF THE AIRPORT. HOWEVER...MOST MESO MODELS BLOW UP CONVECTION OVER
CLT IN THE 20Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. HENCE...WILL CARRY A TEMPO FOR TSRA
DURING THAT TIME ALONG WITH RESTRICTIONS. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE
THIS EVENING LEAVING JUST VFR TYPE CEILINGS.
ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT ANY OF THE AIRFIELDS...BUT
BEST CHANCES APPEAR AT KAVL/KHKY AND KGMU WHERE TEMPO TSRA WILL BE
CARRIED THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS...EXCEPT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IFR CIG/VSBY DEVELOPING AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT FOR A FEW
HOURS.
.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. ANY RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE CONFINED TO DIURNAL TSTMS AND
MORNING VALLEY FOG EACH DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 80% MED 60%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 93% MED 74% HIGH 87%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% MED 72%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 87% MED 72%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...LG/NED
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...JOH/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN
PLACE THURSDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT BY FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 215PM...MOST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AT MID AFTERNOON IS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UPSTATE EASTWARD INTO NC. NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPED IN A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS CREATED BY CLOUD COVER TO NORTH EARLIER
TODAY. PLUS THE LEE TROF HAS PROVIDED SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE DEPICTED BY THE RAP IS ALSO CROSSING THE AREA.
SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS PER CAMS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT TYPE POPS
THOSE AREAS. SHOULD SEE THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WANE THIS EVENING
AS S/W MOVES TO THE E. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
WHICH COULD KICK OFF SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL
SHOW AN UPTICK IN POPS OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING AGAIN. THE 12Z GFS
SEEMS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OVER FAR WESTERN NC IN THE
00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AND WILL NOT BUY INTO THE HIGH GFS QPF DEPICTED
THERE.
ON THU...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE PIEDMONT. THE MODELS
DEPICT A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD TEND TO
ENHANCE THE COVERAGE NEAR IT. PLUS...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA. HENCE...WILL STAY WITH THE IDEA OF
SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER POPS TO THE NORTH. SOUNDINGS LOOK MORE
SATURATED WITH LESS DCAPE...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
SEVERE THREAT. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW
CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES THURSDAY
EVENING WITH A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED JUST
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 INTO THE MIDLANDS OF SC...STRETCHING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NC. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AS HEATING WILL HAVE STEEPENED LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SAID
CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF WILL BE
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING H5 HEIGHTS TO RISE. POPS WILL
TAPER DOWN DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND HEATING LOSS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
POTENTIAL WEAK MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY
MORNING ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS COMBINED WITH FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CWFA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NC/SC PIEDMONT WHERE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND INCREASED MOISTURE YIELD SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500J/KG.
THUS WILL FAVOR LOW END CHANCE LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND
ALSO ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE EAST SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AIDS
CONVECTION. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING WARRANTS TAPERED POPS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND...AND WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS. THIS COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION EARLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE WEAK CIN IS OVERCOME
BY HEATING. EXPECTING INITIATION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT PROPAGATES SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT REGIONS OF
NC/SC. DIURNALLY FAVORED LOW/MID LEVEL CHANCE POPS WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL BE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUE...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT UPPER H5 HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES MON THROUGH WED.
AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE EAST BY EARLY MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT ON TUE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA WED AS A CONTINENTAL HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. AS FOR OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER...POPS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO EACH DAY GIVEN LITTLE TO
NO CAPPING ALOFT AND SEASONABLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. TEMPERATES WILL REMAIN NEAR...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLT...MAIN CONCERN AS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR IS WHEN AND IF THE
AIRFIELD WILL SEE THUNDER. MOST CONVECTION AT THE MOMENT REMAINS SOUTH
OF THE AIRPORT. HOWEVER...MOST MESO MODELS BLOW UP CONVECTION OVER
CLT IN THE 20Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. HENCE...WILL CARRY A TEMPO FOR TSRA
DURING THAT TIME ALONG WITH RESTRICTIONS. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE
THIS EVENING LEAVING JUST VFR TYPE CEILINGS.
ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT ANY OF THE AIRFIELDS...BUT
BEST CHANCES APPEAR AT KAVL/KHKY AND KGMU WHERE TEMPO TSRA WILL BE
CARRIED THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS...EXCEPT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IFR CIG/VSBY DEVELOPING AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT FOR A FEW
HOURS.
.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. ANY RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE CONFINED TO DIURNAL TSTMS AND
MORNING VALLEY FOG EACH DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-19Z
KCLT HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 80% MED 65%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 93% HIGH 83% HIGH 86%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 80%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 88% MED 76%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...JOH/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
104 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY IN
THE MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION. THAT
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1215PM...RADAR RETURNS INCREASING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND
EXPECT THAT AS A WEAK S/W TRAVERSES THE AREA THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. SBCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO
OVER 2000J/KG OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE UPSTATE AND CLT METRO
AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
UPSTATE APPARENTLY IN AN AREA OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CAUSED BY
CLOUDS TO THE N. HAVE UPDTATED POPS TO REFLECT THIS ACTIVITY.
AS OF 1015 AM...NOT MANY ECHOES ON RADAR AT MID MORNING.
HOWEVER...CAMS, 12Z NAM AND RAP ALL INDCIATE THAT COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABLIZES WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING. RAP INDICATES A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN TN WHICH MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA BY 00Z. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH UPPER FORCING TO PRODUCE SCT TO EVEN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. OUR LOCAL CAMPOP GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST
COVERAGE NORTH OF I-85 THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ACTUAL HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS/NC PIEDMONT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POP GRIDS TO
DEPICT THAT GENERAL SCENARIO BY BLENDING CAMPOP/CONSSHORT. CAN`T
RULE OUT A FEW STORMS THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL...BUT
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS ON THE LOW SIDE AS SHEAR IS
UNIMPRESSIVE. BLENDED IN THE LATEST CONSHORT DATA TO ADJUST
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WINDS. THIS GENERALLY LOWERED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE
OR TWO DUE TO A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THERE IS VERY LITTLE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN OR IMMEDIATELY
UPSTREAM OF THE CWA...NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THAT THE AREA IS
WITHIN AN INSTABILITY MINIMUM. NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS STILL SOME
WEAK BUOYANCY UPSTREAM OVER THE TENN VALLEY...AND LATEST KGSP VAD
WIND PROFILE IS CONFIRMING A STOUT 25 TO 35 KTS OF WESTERLY FLOW
ABOVE ABOUT 2 KFT. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING
AT 07Z ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...WHICH
WOULD PROBABLY ARRIVE IN THE FAR WESTERN NC MTNS BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE
TENN BORDER COUNTIES BY SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTIVE SETUP FOR LATER TODAY LEAVES MUCH TO BE
DESIRED. THE FRONTAL ZONE...SUCH AS IT IS...IS STILL DRAPED FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY W/SW TOWARD THE ARKLATEX. IN OTHER WORDS...IT HAS A LONG
WAY TO GO TO BE A PLAYER IN CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...IT MAY TURN OUT THAT THE MAIN FOCUS (OTHER THAN
THE USUAL TERRAIN/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EFFECTS) MAY BE A LEE SIDE
TROUGH...BUT EVEN THAT MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN FOR AREAS JUST TO
OUR EAST. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL IN THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...AND IN OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...THAT PESKY
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HINDER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. IN
FACT...FOR THIS VERY REASON THE MAX TEMP FORECAST IS 2-4 DEGREES
LOWER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. FINALLY...
WHILE PROFILES WILL BE MOISTENING CONSIDERABLY...FORECAST PWATS ARE
ONLY 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...
HAVE ESSENTIALLY OPTED FOR A SHOTGUNNED 40-50 POPS ACROSS THE CWA...
WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTNS...WHICH WILL
HAVE THE BENEFIT OF A CONTINUED (ALBEIT WEAKENING) W/SW UPSLOPE
FLOW. IN TERMS OF THE SEVERE THREAT...MODEST INSTABILITY/MOIST
PROFILES AND WEAKENING SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...THE PIEDMONT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF INSOLATION/HEATING IS MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN
EXPECTED.
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL FINALLY SETTLE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT BY
THAT TIME...WITH WIND PROFILES WEAKENING AND MODEST AT BEST
NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY...SUSPECT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH
MORE THAN SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR TOO LONG PAST MID-EVENING OR SO.
MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO UNDER CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES THURSDAY
EVENING WITH A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED JUST
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 INTO THE MIDLANDS OF SC...NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL NC. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AS HEATING
WILL HAVE STEEPENED LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SAID CONVECTION.
MEANWHILE...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF WILL BE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE WITH POPS TAPERING DOWN INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS COMBINED WITH FLOW
AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
APPS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NC/SC
PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASED MOISTURE YIELD SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500J/KG. THUS
WILL FAVOR LOW END CHANCE LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND ALSO
ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE EAST SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AIDS
CONVECTION. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND...AND WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS. THIS COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION EARLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE WEAK CIN IS OVERCOME
BY HEATING. EXPECTING INITIATION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT PROPAGATES SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT REGIONS OF
NC/SC. DIURNALLY FAVORED LOW/MID LEVEL CHANCE POPS WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL BE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...WHILE SOME VESTIGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS WEEKEND...THE PATTERN ACRS THE
REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY BERMUDA HIGH AT THE SFC. THAT WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FA...BUT INSTEAD OF KEEPING
US CAPPED THRU SUBSIDENCE...BROADLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ABOVE IT
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MODESTLY FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. THIS
IS THE PREVAILING SIGNAL FOR POPS DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
TREND FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.
A FRONT WILL DIVE THRU THE NRN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AS TROUGH DIGS
ACRS ERN CANADA. A WEAK LEADING FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE OH/TN
VALLEYS AND INTO THE AREA MONDAY...ENHANCING PRECIP COVERAGE. THE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES FURTHER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHICH BRINGS THE
STRONGER FRONT SWD TOWARD US. CURRENT GUIDANCE PUTS THIS ON WED
BEYOND THE END OF THE FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
POPPING UP OR MOVING OUT OF THE MTNS AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THIS
MORNING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY SPARSE UNTIL AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS) THROUGH THE PERIOD. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE OR COVERAGE. OUR BEST EDUCATED GUESS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AND ALL
TAFS SEE A PROB30 DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING OR SO.
AT KAVL...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO DEVELOPING NEAR
THE TENN BORDER AND PASSING NEAR THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING...THE
BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON...WHEN A
TEMPO IS BEING CARRIED BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR A
FOGGY NIGHT TO OCCUR AT KAVL...AND WHILE IT IS UNCLEAR THAT TONIGHT
WILL BE THE NIGHT...BASED UPON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...MVFR VISBY
HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TOWARD DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. ANY RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE CONFINED TO DIURNAL TSTMS AND
MORNING VALLEY FOG EACH DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 71% HIGH 83%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91% HIGH 90%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 90%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1207 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY IN
THE MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION. THAT
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1205PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FOR THIS UPDATE. RADAR
RETURNS INCREASING TO THE WEST AND EXPECT THAT AS A WEAK S/W
TRAVERSES THE AREA THAT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCREASE.
SBCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO OVER 2000J/KG OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE UPSTATE AND CLT METRO AREA. HOWEVER....STILL SOME LOW LEVEL
CIN INHIBITING CONVECTION SO IT WILL BE COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
DEEP CONVECTION CAN GET GOING. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRID
FIELDS BASED ON LATEST CONSSHORT DATA...BUT NO CHANGES TO POP
TRENDS.
AS OF 1015 AM...NOT MANY ECHOES ON RADAR AT MID MORNING.
HOWEVER...CAMS, 12Z NAM AND RAP ALL INDCIATE THAT COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABLIZES WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING. RAP INDICATES A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN TN WHICH MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA BY 00Z. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH UPPER FORCING TO PRODUCE SCT TO EVEN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. OUR LOCAL CAMPOP GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST
COVERAGE NORTH OF I-85 THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ACTUAL HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS/NC PIEDMONT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POP GRIDS TO
DEPICT THAT GENERAL SCENARIO BY BLENDING CAMPOP/CONSSHORT. CAN`T
RULE OUT A FEW STORMS THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL...BUT
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS ON THE LOW SIDE AS SHEAR IS
UNIMPRESSIVE. BLENDED IN THE LATEST CONSHORT DATA TO ADJUST
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WINDS. THIS GENERALLY LOWERED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE
OR TWO DUE TO A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THERE IS VERY LITTLE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN OR IMMEDIATELY
UPSTREAM OF THE CWA...NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THAT THE AREA IS
WITHIN AN INSTABILITY MINIMUM. NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS STILL SOME
WEAK BUOYANCY UPSTREAM OVER THE TENN VALLEY...AND LATEST KGSP VAD
WIND PROFILE IS CONFIRMING A STOUT 25 TO 35 KTS OF WESTERLY FLOW
ABOVE ABOUT 2 KFT. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING
AT 07Z ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...WHICH
WOULD PROBABLY ARRIVE IN THE FAR WESTERN NC MTNS BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE
TENN BORDER COUNTIES BY SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTIVE SETUP FOR LATER TODAY LEAVES MUCH TO BE
DESIRED. THE FRONTAL ZONE...SUCH AS IT IS...IS STILL DRAPED FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY W/SW TOWARD THE ARKLATEX. IN OTHER WORDS...IT HAS A LONG
WAY TO GO TO BE A PLAYER IN CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...IT MAY TURN OUT THAT THE MAIN FOCUS (OTHER THAN
THE USUAL TERRAIN/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EFFECTS) MAY BE A LEE SIDE
TROUGH...BUT EVEN THAT MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN FOR AREAS JUST TO
OUR EAST. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL IN THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...AND IN OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...THAT PESKY
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HINDER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. IN
FACT...FOR THIS VERY REASON THE MAX TEMP FORECAST IS 2-4 DEGREES
LOWER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. FINALLY...
WHILE PROFILES WILL BE MOISTENING CONSIDERABLY...FORECAST PWATS ARE
ONLY 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...
HAVE ESSENTIALLY OPTED FOR A SHOTGUNNED 40-50 POPS ACROSS THE CWA...
WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTNS...WHICH WILL
HAVE THE BENEFIT OF A CONTINUED (ALBEIT WEAKENING) W/SW UPSLOPE
FLOW. IN TERMS OF THE SEVERE THREAT...MODEST INSTABILITY/MOIST
PROFILES AND WEAKENING SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...THE PIEDMONT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF INSOLATION/HEATING IS MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN
EXPECTED.
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL FINALLY SETTLE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT BY
THAT TIME...WITH WIND PROFILES WEAKENING AND MODEST AT BEST
NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY...SUSPECT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH
MORE THAN SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR TOO LONG PAST MID-EVENING OR SO.
MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO UNDER CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM WED...SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SEWD THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE CAROLINAS FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WHILE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT. DEEP THICKNESSES DO NOT DROP APPRECIABLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND IN SOMEWHAT OF A DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...LATEST
MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO WEAKEN THE FRONT AND VIRTUALLY WASH IT OUT
OVER THE PIEDMONT INSTEAD OF PUSHING IT OFF TO THE COAST AS BEFORE.
HOWEVER THIS DIFFERENCE DOES NOT IMPLY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST
TRENDS SINCE THE FRONT SHOULD MAINLY JUST SERVE TO FOCUS DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH CHANCE POPS
THU...BUT WILL KEEP A SCHC OVER MOST AREAS THRU THU NIGHT. WHATEVER
WEAK LLVL FORCING PERSISTS LOOKS UNLIKELY TO FIRE MUCH
CONVECTION...BUT THE MERE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES WARRANT A LOW POP MENTION. BY FRIDAY MODEL QPF RESPONSE FAVORS
THE SC MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY SCHC POPS ARE ADVERTISED...BUT
THESE TOO ARE SLOW TO DIMINISH FRI NIGHT.
CONSENSUS OF NAM/SREF INDICATES CAPE VALUES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE
TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON...1000-2000 J/KG...THOUGH THE GFS IS MORE
STABLE FRIDAY WITH MORE OF THE REGION ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT.
H5 WINDS AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE...AND PWAT VALUES REMAIN
NEAR CLIMO. SEVERE THREAT WITH CELLS WILL BE NONZERO BUT NOT
PARTICULARLY NOTABLE...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY THURSDAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...WHILE SOME VESTIGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS WEEKEND...THE PATTERN ACRS THE
REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY BERMUDA HIGH AT THE SFC. THAT WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FA...BUT INSTEAD OF KEEPING
US CAPPED THRU SUBSIDENCE...BROADLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ABOVE IT
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MODESTLY FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. THIS
IS THE PREVAILING SIGNAL FOR POPS DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
TREND FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.
A FRONT WILL DIVE THRU THE NRN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AS TROUGH DIGS
ACRS ERN CANADA. A WEAK LEADING FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE OH/TN
VALLEYS AND INTO THE AREA MONDAY...ENHANCING PRECIP COVERAGE. THE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES FURTHER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHICH BRINGS THE
STRONGER FRONT SWD TOWARD US. CURRENT GUIDANCE PUTS THIS ON WED
BEYOND THE END OF THE FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
POPPING UP OR MOVING OUT OF THE MTNS AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THIS
MORNING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY SPARSE UNTIL AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS) THROUGH THE PERIOD. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE OR COVERAGE. OUR BEST EDUCATED GUESS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AND ALL
TAFS SEE A PROB30 DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING OR SO.
AT KAVL...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO DEVELOPING NEAR
THE TENN BORDER AND PASSING NEAR THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING...THE
BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON...WHEN A
TEMPO IS BEING CARRIED BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR A
FOGGY NIGHT TO OCCUR AT KAVL...AND WHILE IT IS UNCLEAR THAT TONIGHT
WILL BE THE NIGHT...BASED UPON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...MVFR VISBY
HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TOWARD DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. ANY RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE CONFINED TO DIURNAL TSTMS AND
MORNING VALLEY FOG EACH DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
16-22Z 22-04Z 04-10Z 10-16Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 80% HIGH 80%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 87%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 87%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1221 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KCXO/KLBX AND POSSIBLY KSGR AROUND SUNRISE. THE HI-RES ARW...
THE HRRR AND THE RAP 13 SHOW SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP NEAR
KSGR LATE THIS AFTN SO TOSSED IN A VCTS FOR THAT LOCATION ONLY.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE AROUND 94 DEGREES. ON THURSDAY...THE NAM 12
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE LEVELS WHILE THE GFS REMAINS
DRY. COULD GET SOME SHRA/TSRA AT KIAH AROUND 21Z THURSDAY BUT DID
NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/
UPDATE...
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY DRIER THAN IN RECENT
DAYS WITH SATELLITE-DERIVED PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. LESS MORNING
CLOUD COVER WILL TRANSLATE TO A SLIGHTLY QUICKER WARM UP INTO THE
LOWER 90S BY NOON...SOUTHWEST BREEZES BACKING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY. DRIER PROFILES AND HIGHER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 90S WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT PRECIPITATION AREAL COVERAGE.
20% OR LESS PROBABILITY FOR A POP-UP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER
/ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE LOCAL BAY-SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. HIGHER
MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE GULF TOMORROW...WITH LOWER CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...IS PROVIDING MORE FAVORABLE SOUNDINGS TO INCREASE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS POPS TO LOW CHANCE(S). LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND POPS
WILL FALL TO NEAR NIL AS (ALL LEVEL) RIDGING BEGINS TO ASSERT A
STRONGER INFLUENCE UPON EASTERN TEXAS. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT ON THE RADAR SCOPE THIS MORNING OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES/
NEARSHORE WATERS. PERHAPS IN PART TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS COULD TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY
LESS COVERAGE FOR THIS AFTN AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THE LARGE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NE TO SEE HOW
IT COULD AFFECT MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS FOR TOMORROW AFTN (AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE
MOVES IN FROM THE GULF) BUT THIS MAY BE IT AS FAR AS SCT PCPN FOR
SE TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK/ONTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN
BULLISH WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING/SETTLING ATOP THE REGION BY
FRI. LESS POPS/WARMER TEMPS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK. 41
MARINE...
LIGHT WIND REGIME REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WINDS
5 TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE SUNDAY AS RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS EASTWARD. 45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 75 95 75 97 / 20 10 20 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 94 75 94 76 95 / 20 10 30 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 80 91 81 92 / 10 10 20 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...43