Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/07/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
726 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE
CONTRIBUTED TO THE MCV OUT OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ITS INFLUENCE
OVER THE ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS THE STATE. SHOULD SEE A
DECREASE IN THE NEXT HOUR AS SUNSET APPROACHES...WHICH SHOULD HELP
THE ACTIVITY DIMINISH AS IT APPROACHES THE LITTLE ROCK METRO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
AVIATION...
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN VERY SPARSE IN S MO...AND AS CONVECTION MOVES
FARTHER S...IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THUS...VCSH/-RA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR KHRO AND KBPK. LOWER
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 03Z...THEN REAPPEAR AT 3-4 THSD 15Z-16Z
MON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SFC HIGH PRES WAS SITUATED TO THE E OF AR THIS AFTN...ALLOWING SLY
WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS RETURNED IN
EARNEST OVR THE LAST 24 HOURS AS NOTED WITH LATEST DEWPOINT READINGS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACRS THE FA.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT WAS NOTED ACRS SWRN MO EARLIER IN THE DAY
HAS CONTD TO WEAKEN. THE RESULTING MCV IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOLY TO
THE SE INTO THE EVENING. THE HRRR CONTS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS FEATURE AND DOES INDC SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FORMING ACRS
PARTS OF NRN AR THRU THE LATE AFTN. WL CONT TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
AND DECIDE BEFORE ISSUANCE TIME WHETHER TO INCLUDE SOME POPS THIS
EVENING IN THE N.
THE WX PATTERN WL BCM MORE UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK. HIGH PRES ALOFT WL SHIFT FURTHER WWD AND SET UP OVR
THE WRN PART OF THE NATION. THE RESULTING NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A
FNTL BNDRY SWD INTO AR STARTING LATE TUE/TUE NGT...WITH THE BNDRY TO
MEANDER OVR THE FA THRU THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.
AS A RESULT...CONVECTIVE CHCS WL BE ON THE UPSWING FM N TO S...ESP
LATE TUE THRU WED. WHILE WIDESPREAD SVR WX IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A
FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE TUE NGT AND WED. SHLD THE BNDRY
HOLD UP LONGER OVR A GIVEN AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE A
CONCERN. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FM MOS TEMPS THRU THE PD.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ARKANSAS AS THE
PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY. BROAD-BRUSHED CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY IN THE EAST. UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST OF ARKANSAS
ON FRIDAY...PUSHING THE REMNANT BOUNDARY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
LIKELY BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE FORECAST AREA HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH A NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE IN THE
LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN THAT WILL CARRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
IS EVEN HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WILL JUST ADVERTISE WIDESPREAD MID
90S FOR THE TIME BEING. RECENT RAINS AS WELL AS THOSE EXPECTED THIS
WEEK SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL TO GET TO 100 DEGREES...MUCH LESS
BEYOND. NEVERTHELESS...IT DOES SEEM LIKE NEXT WEEKEND MAY FEATURE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT.
TO END ON A POSITIVE NOTE THOUGH...LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY
FORECAST THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANY OPPRESSIVE HEAT MAY BE SHORT
LIVED AND A RETURN TO NORMAL OR POSSIBLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
COULD OCCUR. TIME WILL TELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 70 93 72 91 / 50 20 10 20
CAMDEN AR 69 94 70 94 / 10 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 68 92 72 89 / 10 20 10 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 70 93 72 94 / 10 10 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 93 73 94 / 20 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 69 94 72 94 / 10 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 67 93 70 94 / 10 10 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 67 93 71 90 / 20 20 10 30
NEWPORT AR 70 93 73 92 / 20 10 10 20
PINE BLUFF AR 69 93 71 94 / 10 10 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 69 94 71 94 / 10 10 10 20
SEARCY AR 68 93 71 93 / 20 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 70 93 72 92 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
226
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
621 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.AVIATION...
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN VERY SPARSE IN S MO...AND AS CONVECTION MOVES
FARTHER S...IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THUS...VCSH/-RA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR KHRO AND KBPK. LOWER
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 03Z...THEN REAPPEAR AT 3-4 THSD 15Z-16Z
MON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SFC HIGH PRES WAS SITUATED TO THE E OF AR THIS AFTN...ALLOWING SLY
WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS RETURNED IN
EARNEST OVR THE LAST 24 HOURS AS NOTED WITH LATEST DEWPOINT READINGS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACRS THE FA.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT WAS NOTED ACRS SWRN MO EARLIER IN THE DAY
HAS CONTD TO WEAKEN. THE RESULTING MCV IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOLY TO
THE SE INTO THE EVENING. THE HRRR CONTS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS FEATURE AND DOES INDC SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FORMING ACRS
PARTS OF NRN AR THRU THE LATE AFTN. WL CONT TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
AND DECIDE BEFORE ISSUANCE TIME WHETHER TO INCLUDE SOME POPS THIS
EVENING IN THE N.
THE WX PATTERN WL BCM MORE UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK. HIGH PRES ALOFT WL SHIFT FURTHER WWD AND SET UP OVR
THE WRN PART OF THE NATION. THE RESULTING NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A
FNTL BNDRY SWD INTO AR STARTING LATE TUE/TUE NGT...WITH THE BNDRY TO
MEANDER OVR THE FA THRU THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.
AS A RESULT...CONVECTIVE CHCS WL BE ON THE UPSWING FM N TO S...ESP
LATE TUE THRU WED. WHILE WIDESPREAD SVR WX IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A
FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE TUE NGT AND WED. SHLD THE BNDRY
HOLD UP LONGER OVR A GIVEN AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE A
CONCERN. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FM MOS TEMPS THRU THE PD.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ARKANSAS AS THE
PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY. BROAD-BRUSHED CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY IN THE EAST. UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST OF ARKANSAS
ON FRIDAY...PUSHING THE REMNANT BOUNDARY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
LIKELY BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE FORECAST AREA HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH A NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE IN THE
LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN THAT WILL CARRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
IS EVEN HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WILL JUST ADVERTISE WIDESPREAD MID
90S FOR THE TIME BEING. RECENT RAINS AS WELL AS THOSE EXPECTED THIS
WEEK SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL TO GET TO 100 DEGREES...MUCH LESS
BEYOND. NEVERTHELESS...IT DOES SEEM LIKE NEXT WEEKEND MAY FEATURE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT.
TO END ON A POSITIVE NOTE THOUGH...LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY
FORECAST THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANY OPPRESSIVE HEAT MAY BE SHORT
LIVED AND A RETURN TO NORMAL OR POSSIBLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
COULD OCCUR. TIME WILL TELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 70 93 72 91 / 20 20 10 20
CAMDEN AR 69 94 70 94 / 0 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 68 92 72 89 / 20 20 10 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 70 93 72 94 / 0 10 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 93 73 94 / 0 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 69 94 72 94 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 67 93 70 94 / 0 10 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 67 93 71 90 / 30 20 10 30
NEWPORT AR 70 93 73 92 / 10 10 10 20
PINE BLUFF AR 69 93 71 94 / 0 10 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 69 94 71 94 / 10 10 10 20
SEARCY AR 68 93 71 93 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 70 93 72 92 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
449 PM PDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.UPDATE...FOR AIR QUALITY SECTION
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL KEEP
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER
THE SIERRA NEVADA AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION CONTINUES TO BRING ABUNDANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO AZ AND
NV...AND EVEN INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
FORMED OVER THE SIERRA CREST IN TULARE COUNTY...BUT HAVE BEEN VERY
ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
THE NAM INDICATE THAT THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AND PEAK AROUND THE 22Z...THE WARMEST PART OF THE
DAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST...SO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED...AND MAY NOT EVEN IMPACT THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO LOW WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...THE VALLEY IS ON ITS WAY TO ANOTHER TRIPLE DIGIT
DAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE MARK FOR MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS...NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY AND
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE FOUR
CORNERS UPPER HIGH REMAINING FIRMLY IN PLACE INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE SIERRA CREST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES TO THE VALLEY AND DESERT LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SHIFTING
THE THUNDERSTORM MOISTURE SOURCE TO THE EAST AS WELL. ALTHOUGH WE
DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CREST ON
FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ANOTHER RESULT OF THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTING EAST WILL BE A VERY SUBTLE COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
AREA. ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 100
DEGREE MARK...BUT WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL HARDLY BE NOTICEABLE...AND STILL SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KERN COUNTY
DESERTS...TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA THRU 06Z MON AND OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA AFTER 20Z MON. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY JULY 7 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN SEQUOIA
NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-06 111:2007 83:1903 78:2007 50:1955
KFAT 07-07 111:1905 84:1891 76:1936 53:1903
KFAT 07-08 115:1905 84:1983 81:1896 51:1891
KBFL 07-06 116:1913 85:1955 81:2011 52:1915
KBFL 07-07 114:1905 85:1983 81:1968 46:1903
KBFL 07-08 114:1905 85:1983 79:1907 50:1899
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
137 PM PDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL KEEP
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER
THE DESERT AREA AND SIERRA NEVADA AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWS OVER
THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL MOISTURE...REMINENTS OF POST TROPICAL
CYCLONE DOUGLAS...CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWEST INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF KERN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
INITIALLY...WE WERE CONCERNED WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT...HOWEVER CHANCES CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS ALL CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. IF THUNDERSTORM DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN TULARE AND FRESNO
COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MEDIUM WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES...GENERALLY BETWEEN 100 TO 105 THROUGH THE VALLEY LOCATIONS
AND TO NEAR 110 IN THE DESERT LOCATIONS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR TOMORROW...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN AND
DESERT AS WELL AS THE SIERRA CREST. THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES
SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST...HOWEVER MID LEVEL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE SIERRA CREST.
BEGINNING MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FOCUSED ON THE SIERRA
CREST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY AND DESERT LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTURY MARK INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY IF NOT
THURSDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR NUDGE INTO THE UPPER 90S.
REGARDLESS...THESE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE CONVECTION OVER THE
REGION...BOTH TIMING AND AREA OF INITIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KERN COUNTY
DESERTS...TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA BETWEEN 21Z TODAY THRU 06Z SUN. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE PROBABLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-05 112:1991 77:1909 77:1991 52:1948
KFAT 07-06 111:2007 83:1903 78:2007 50:1955
KFAT 07-07 111:1905 84:1891 76:1936 53:1903
KBFL 07-05 114:1931 80:1961 81:1970 53:1948
KBFL 07-06 116:1913 85:1955 81:2011 52:1915
KBFL 07-07 114:1905 85:1983 81:1968 46:1903
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...WP
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
900 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DESERT FOR THIS EVENING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL KEEP
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AN INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY NEAR THE KERN
COUNTY LINE HAD DISSIPATED BY 02Z SATURDAY /1900 PDT THIS EVENING/.
ONE CELL BARELY MADE IT OVER THE COUNTY LINE NEAR THE JUNCTION OF
KERN...LOS ANGELES AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...WITH ONE CLOUD-TO-
GROUND STRIKE IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY AND TWO IN-CLOUD
OR CLOUD-TO-CLOUD STROKES OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THIS EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
TODAY WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED...AND RANGED FROM 104
AT THE MADERA AND VISALIA MUNICIPAL AIRPORTS TO 110 DEGREES AT
COALINGA. BOTH BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO HAD HIGHS OF 107 DEGREES.THIS
WAS THE THIRD TIME THIS YEAR THE HIGH AT MEADOWS FIELD WAS 105
DEGREES OR HIGHER...AND THE FIFTH TIME FOR FRESNO-YOSEMITE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
THE FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE GUSTY WINDS NEAR SUNFLOWER VALLEY
WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH CONTINUE...AND HOW EXTENSIVE CONVECTION
WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AT 03Z SATURDAY /2000 PDT THIS EVENING/...THE SALINAS-FRESNO SURFACE-
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS 7.0 MB...AND THE SANTA MARIA-FRESNO GRADIENT
WAS 5.9 MB. THE 02Z HRRR FORECASTS A 15-KT WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
DIABLO RANGE NEAR SUNFLOWER VALLEY THAT DIMINISHES AROUND 04Z
SATURDAY /2100 PDT THIS EVENING/. THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY...AS THE
WINDS AT SUNFLOWER VALLEY WERE STILL GUSTING TO 36 MPH AT 0327Z /2027
PDT/. HOWEVER...THE HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS EVENING/S
CONVECTION SO WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL RUN WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS WITH THE MOUNTAIN AND DESERT CONVECTION OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WAS ABUNDANT
IN-CLOUD AND CLOUD-TO-CLOUD LIGHTNING WITH THE CELLS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TODAY...AND THE CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS IS THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING GENERATED AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES
MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN OVER NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NAM-12 KEEPS 850-MB
THETA-E IN EXCESS OF 340 K OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA OVERNIGHT.
THESE CONCERNS WILL BE FURTHER EVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT CREW AFTER
THE FULL 00Z GFS AND ECMWF COME IN.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT...TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PROBABLE NEAR ANY TSRA AFTER 21Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 301 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE
WARM AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN DISTRICT. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW MONSOON MOISTURE ALREADY ARRIVING EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOW A GOOD INCREASE TOWARDS THE KERN
COUNTY DESERT. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN MUCH OF THE MOJAVE AREA HAVE
INCREASED 20-25 DEGREES OVER THE THE LAST 24 HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED
THE FORECAST BRINGING THE THREAT OF THUNDER A DAY EARLIER STARTING
SATURDAY OVER EASTERN KERN COUNTY AND HIGH SIERRA. THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT RESULTING IN A CONTINUED THREAT
OF CONVECTIVE STORM POTENTIAL INTO MID WEEK. SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER COULD PUSH INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY EACH
EVENING OVER THE WEEKEND. STORM ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW REMNANT STORM VORTEXES
MOVING THROUGH THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH OVER S PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT BRINGING A
MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF THUNDER OVER THE SIERRA SUNDAY. THE
INITIAL MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORM MAY BE DRY LIGHTNING. BUT WITH
HIGH PW TURN TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SUNDAY.
THE SIERRA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THE THREAT OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
MODELS KEEP THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT USHERING THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE SIERRA
FRIDAY.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL TEMPER TEMPERATURES. WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER AND HIGHS A BIT LOWER, YET TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE LOCKED IN AT OR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-04 112:1889 79:1955 81:2001 51:1951
KFAT 07-05 112:1991 77:1909 77:1991 52:1948
KFAT 07-06 111:2007 83:1903 78:2007 50:1955
KBFL 07-04 114:1931 82:1955 81:2001 49:1913
KBFL 07-05 114:1931 80:1961 81:1970 53:1948
KBFL 07-06 116:1913 85:1955 81:2011 52:1915
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...BEAN
PREV DISCUSSION...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...WP
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
600 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014
UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE PALMER DVD WITH STORMS FIRING
ON A MOISTURE BOUNDARY FROM JEFFERSON AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES EASTWARD
ALONG I-70 TO THE KANSAS BORDER. 18Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN EL PASO AND
KIOWA COUNTY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY..AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO...KEEPING WEAK N-NE
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AGAIN
TODAY...WITH A VERY PALTRY CROP OF AFTERNOON TSRA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS INDICATED BY BAND OF
MODERATE CUMULUS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...AND KPUX
RADAR SHOWS SOME WEAK CONVECTION TRYING TO DEVELOP FROM THE PALMER
DIVIDE EAST TO CHIN COUNTY AS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR PUSHES
SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THIS EVENING...WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO
LOW SCT POPS IN PLACE FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SOME VERY HIGH
BASED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. N-NE STEERING FLOW
WILL TEND TO KEEP VALLEYS/EASTERN SLOPES DRY...WHILE OVER THE
PLAINS...ONLY SOME VERY LOW POPS ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
KIOWA COUNTY...WHERE A COUPLE TSRA COULD FORM NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO END QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING...AND WILL END POPS ALL AREAS BY MIDNIGHT.
ON MONDAY...AIR MASS CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVER THE AREA AS
UPPER HIGH DRIFTS INTO UTAH. SURFACE BOUNDARY AGAIN LURKS NEAR THE
PALMER DIVIDE...THOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE IS STILL BACK TO THE NORTH
OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. EXPECT ANOTHER RATHER PALTRY CROP OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH VERY WEAK STEERING
WINDS KEEPING ACTIVITY TIED THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...THOUGH WILL AGAIN UNDERCUT TOO HOT MOS
GUIDANCE MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. EXPECT ONGOING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND OUT INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING WITH DECREASING ACTIVITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE INCREASING
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING ON AREA BURN SCARS. THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRICKY IN REGARDS TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL REBUILD
EASTWARD OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL PULL LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
SOUTHERLY AND THE NAM AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE DRYLINE
OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE A
FEELING THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE ON THE PLAINS WITH A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY AND SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO
OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DEPENDING ON WHEN
STORMS FIRE AND IF A DRYLINE DOES DEVELOP. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH FLASH FLOODING AGAIN A RISK ON AREA BURN
SCARS.
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION
BY THURSDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOW
MUCH MOVEMENT AND COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES
CAUGHT UNDER THE RIDGE. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS BRING A DECENT
WAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY
LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AS
-TSRA WILL REMAIN SPARSE...THOUGH A FEW VERY BRIEF AND VERY HIGH
BASED CELLS MAY DRIFT PAST KALS AND JUST NORTH OF KCOS 22-24Z.
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING BUT LITTLE RAINFALL...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND PALMER DIVIDE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH STORMS
DYING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER
18Z...BUT STAYING AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
725 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARTHUR WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MAINE TODAY AS A POST
TROPICAL SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND AND
BRINGS DRY PLEASANT WEATHER. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN A CHANCE OVER A BROADER AREA DURING
MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
LAST REMAINING RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LVL COLD POOL
AND MODEST LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z
/10 AM/. CLOUD SHIELD IS VERY CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND SO
AS SOON AS RAIN ENDS...CLEARING SHOULD FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND.
THEREFORE...EXPECT TREND TOWARD SKC CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE WHICH
WILL HOLD MUCH OF THE DAY. COULD SEE A BIT OF HIGH BASED DIURNAL
CU LATER ON TODAY...BUT THIS IS UNLIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD AS DRY
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW. POPS WERE BASED ON THE HRRR WITH THIS
UPDATE...AND BROUGHT TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO SPEED...OTHERWISE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER NANTUCKET AND CAPE
COD...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL BE LOWERED...CONSISTENT
WITH THE 5 AM NHC ADVISORY.
SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS EASTERN MA AND NORTHERN
RI...PRESUMABLY DUE TO A COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER TROF. THE UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES EAST OF AREA AFTER
12Z. NONETHELESS...WILL NEED TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
EASTERN ZONES AT THE START OF TODAY/S FORECAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF THUNDER.
OTHERWISE...LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO REGION BEHIND
ARTHUR...DOWN TO 48 AT EEN AT 07Z. NW WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY
WITH THE UNSTABLE PROFILE THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY...WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE AIR
MASS WILL FEEL MUCH LESS HUMID TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
ONE CONCERN FOR TODAY HAS BEEN THE RISK OF HIGH SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE RESIDUAL SWELL AFTER ARTHUR. OUR
PROCEDURE FOR CALCULATING RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY LEVEL DOES NOT GO
ABOVE MODERATE EVEN FOR THE INTUITIVELY VULNERABLE AREAS OF CAPE
ANN TO SALISBURY...THE OUTER CAPE...SOUTH BEACH AREA OF MARTHA/S
VINEYARD AND THE EAST AND SOUTH SHORES OF NANTUCKET. REALIZING
THAT THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR THE WAVEWATCH MODEL TO DECAY THE
SWELL TOO QUICKLY...HAVE MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE SWELL AND PERIODS
UP SOME BUT STILL DO NOT GET ANY HIGHER RISK THAN MODERATE. WHAT
MAY BE HAPPENING IS THAT THE TRAJECTORY AND STRUCTURE OF FAST
MOVING ARTHUR WAS SUCH THAT THE SWELL ENERGY WAS GENERALLY MOVING
SSW TO NNE AND LARGELY OPPOSED TO THE LOCAL WIND AND WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AS ARTHUR PASSED BY. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF HIGH RIP
CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HIGH SURF IS NOT AS MUCH AS ONE MIGHT
INITIALLY THINK THE DAY AFTER A TROPICAL CYCLONE PASSAGE.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL BE PREPARED TO UPDATE IF BEACH REPORTS
SUGGEST A HIGHER LEVEL OF ACTIVITY THAN THAT INDICATED BY OUR
COMPUTATIONAL SCHEME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRES DOMINATES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO
DROP INTO THE 50S TONIGHT IN ALL EXCEPT SOME OF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL AND URBAN AREAS. MODELS SUGGEST A MODEST AMOUNT OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER OR MID 80S MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW...05/00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL BE A BROAD
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS ITS CORE POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS A PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE NEXT WEEK.
FAVORED THE CONSENSUS BLEND TO TREND THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE ENOUGH MINOR DETAIL DIFFERENCES WHICH CAN BE SMOOTHED OVER
BY THIS APPROACH... WITHOUT LOSING THE OVERALL PICTURE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECTING INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ONCE MORE AS SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS RETURN. A COLD FRONT MAY
SLOWLY APPROACH OUR AREA DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PROXIMITY OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WILL
LEAD TO A GREATER RISK FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
EXACT TIMING IS NOT YET CERTAIN...BUT LEANING MORE TOWARD A TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERN FOR TUESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
SLIGHTLY TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY...THIS IS A TRICKER FORECAST...LARGELY DUE TO TIMING OF THE
FRONT WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH THROUGH MOST OF THE MID WEEK.
CAN SEE A SCENARIO WHERE THIS FRONT IS SMACK IN THE MIDDLE OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CAN ALSO SEE A SCENARIO WHERE THIS FRONT
MOVES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH WHERE A GOOD PORTION OF THIS DAY IS DRY.
05/00Z GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN 05/00Z ECMWF. THIS IS DUE
TO THE ECMWF HAVING A MORE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. AT
THIS TIME RANGE...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THESE TYPES OF
TIMING DETAILS.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
TODAY...
VFR. E COASTAL RAINS SHOULD END BY 14Z. OTHERWISE MAIN ISSUE IS
THE WINDS...WHICH WILL RANGE 310-330 MAINLY WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AT
TIMES.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
VFR CONTINUES. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THEN SHIFT
MAINLY TO THE W ON SUN. A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE ON SUN.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. RAIN SHOULD END AROUND 13Z.
WINDS PICK UP WITH SOME GUSTS 25-30 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS PICK UP WITH SOME GUSTS
25-30 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE PACE OF SUBSIDING SEAS TODAY. WILL NEED TO
MAINTAIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS ALL THE OPEN WATERS AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THE RESIDUAL SWELL FROM ARTHUR.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A STRENGTHENING SW FETCH MAY START TO RAISE SEAS
TO NEAR 5 FEET VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE OUTER SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS SEAS ON COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS REACH 25 KNOTS MONDAY...THEN
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5 TO 7
FEET ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ230>232-250-251-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DOODY/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/THOMPSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1017 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ATLANTIC RIDGE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE HAS BEEN SLOWLY
BUILDING WEST LAST NIGHT AND THIS IA EVIDENT ON THE 12Z MFL
SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS RETURNED, ALBEIT VERY
WEAK AT 10 MPH OR LESS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH ALSO EXISTS WELL TO THE
NORTH AND THIS CAUSING SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHICH IS
AIDING IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WARM
GULF/ATLANTIC WATERS. AT ANY RATE, WEAK SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. THE SOUNDING
CONTINUES TO SHOW PWAT AT JUST UNDER TWO INCHES WHICH IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY JULY. THE ENVIRONMENT
CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSTABLE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND
6C/KM WHICH IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT THEREFORE
APPEARS TO BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50MPH ALONG
WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. IN ADDITION, WITH THE DEEP BUT WEAK
SOUTHEAST FLOW THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZES AND
THEN SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH IS WHAT THE HRRR HAS BEEN
SHOWING SO THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR VSBYS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES ALTHOUGH SOME REMNANT FU/HZ FROM
FIREWORKS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR BRIEFLY AT SOME OF THE
EAST COAST SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. VCTS IS INCLUDED AT ALL AIRPORTS. MORNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM IS IN THE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE WEAK FLOW A FEW STORMS COULD AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE PREVAILING EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. KAPF SHOULD SEE A GULF BREEZE
DEVELOP AS WELL WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO
INITIATE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 77 89 78 / 40 30 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 80 90 81 / 40 30 30 30
MIAMI 89 78 89 80 / 40 30 40 30
NAPLES 90 75 90 76 / 40 30 40 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
153 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.AVIATION...
KEPT VFR VSBYS AT ALL SITES ALTHOUGH SOME REMNANT FU/HZ FROM
FIREWORKS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR BRIEFLY AT SOME OF THE
EAST COAST SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE PREVAILING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
KAPF SHOULD SEE A GULF BREEZE DEVELOP AS WELL WHICH WILL ALLOW
MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO INITIATE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
UPDATE...
EARLIER SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED...AND LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS HAVE PREVENTED ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE BROWARD/DADE/PALM BEACH COASTS THIS EVENING.
THUS...EXPECTING THE SWATH OF RAIN THROUGH INLAND PALM
BEACH/BROWARD TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS NE
OF NAPLES IS MOVING WEST TOWARDS THE COAST...BUT MAY ALSO WEAKEN
BEFORE ARRIVING TO I-75. HOWEVER...ANY OUTFLOW FROM THIS CLUSTER
MAY SPAWN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT A LITTLE LATER CONSIDERING THE
LACK OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY. REGARDLESS...POPS
WERE REDUCED TO SLT CHC IN SOME AREAS ALONG THE COASTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WIDELY DISPERSED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. IN GENERAL STORM MOTION IS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH
THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA EXPECTED TO
HAVE THE MOST COVERAGE. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW THIS TREND
AS WELL.
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THEN EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TOWARD HURRICANE
ARTHUR. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT AREA OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND EXTEND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR HAS
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES...I.E. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
MOISTURE...WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
IN GENERAL WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 77 89 78 / 40 30 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 80 90 80 / 40 20 40 20
MIAMI 90 78 90 79 / 40 20 40 20
NAPLES 91 74 91 75 / 30 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1018 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
815 PM CDT
HAVE FURTHER REFINED POPS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR PRAIRIE DU CHIEN BACK TO MARSHALLTOWN
IOWA. OTHERWISE...A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND IS A LIKELY FACTOR IN DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS ON THE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. A FEW SMALL CELLS HAVE POPPED UP
NEAR THE WI BORDER WITH CAPPING INDICATED BY RECENT AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS LIMITING THEIR DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. CAPPING MAY ERODE
AS SUN SETS SO SOME UPTICK IN SPOTTY ACTIVITY NEAR THE WI BORDER
AND OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN MAY OCCUR BUT SEE LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STORM EVOLUTION TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS REMAINS THE
MAIN QUESTION...ESPECIALLY AS THE SUN SETS. THE IOWA ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT
ARRIVAL INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA TOWARD 04Z AND IN THE
WEST/NORTHWEST CHICAGO METRO TOWARD 06Z ASSUMING MAINTENANCE. AT
THIS POINT DECENT ORGANIZATION LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED INTO THE
WESTERN CWA GIVEN LARGER SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY A NOT TERRIBLY
WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH...BUT COVERAGE MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE
TOWARD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN TERMS OF SEVERE THREAT...HAVE NOT
SEEN ANY REPORTS OF STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OR HAIL FROM THE IOWA
STORMS THUS FAR...THOUGH FUNNEL CLOUDS AND A FEW BRIEF TORNADO
TOUCHDOWNS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. THESE HAVE BEEN WITHIN THE AXIS OF
EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING AN IMPRESSIVE
150-200 J/KG OF SFC- 3KM CAPE...WHICH IS CERTAINLY PLENTY FOR LOW
LEVEL STRETCHING OF VORTICITY. DO NOT SEE THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY
EXTENDING MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS.
LOCALLY...WITH FAIRLY LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF STORMS DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT. GIVEN
TIME OF DAY AND STORM PERFORMANCE SO FAR THINK ANY SEVERE WOULD BE
ISOLATED.
MDB
&&
.DISCUSSION...
106 PM CDT
THIS EVENING...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING REMAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP PRE-FRONTAL. CLOUD REMNANTS FROM
MORNING COMPLEX REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS THIS AREA OF LOW/MID DECK CLOUDS SLOWLY SLIDING
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. THIS WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN SOME STABILITY. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARM LAYER
ALOFT...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THIS LAYER WILL BEGIN TO DISSOLVE
CLOSER TO 00-02Z MON. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO ADVECT
NORTH...HOWEVER THERE IS A MOIST BOUNDARY THAT EXISTS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTN...SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST. MLCAPE IS
PROGGED TO RISE NEAR 2000-3000J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTN. DEW PTS WILL RISE TO ARND 70 AND POSSIBLY BY
LATE AFTN NEAR THE LOW 70S IN A FEW LOCATIONS. SFC WINDS ARE RATHER
UNIFORM EARLY THIS AFTN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER OVER TIME THE
WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND POSSIBLY JUST EAST OF
SOUTH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING. THIS WILL ENHANCE
THE HELICITY COMPONENT LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE IF CONVECTION IS
ABLE TO EXHIBIT FURTHER GROWTH/ENHANCEMENT...IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT A
FEW UPDRAFTS COULD BEGIN TO ROTATE. WIND SHEAR STEADILY INCREASING
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING...WILL BRING A GREATER HAZARD
FOR SOME STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
AND POTENTIAL FOR HAIL LARGER THAN 1" DIAMETER. BUT AGAIN...THE
WILDCARD REMAINS WITH THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OVERNIGHT THRU MONDAY...
THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING
CONVECTION...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL BE
SLIDING EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WHICH SHUD CLEAR THE
SOUTHEAST CWFA CLOSE TO 9Z MON. THIS SHUD QUICKLY BRING A DRY WEDGE
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT. SFC ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP
TO USHER IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR LATE TONIGHT...EARLY MON. WITH THE
MID-LVL FLOW TRYING TO FLATTEN...THE SFC FEATURE SHUD QUICKLY PUSH
EAST...WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF VORTICITY PROGGED TO ARRIVE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MON AFTN/EVE. MID-LVL INSTABILITY WILL STEADILY
INCREASE MON AFTN...HOWEVER THE MOST UNSTABLE REGION WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG/NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MON EVENING SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
IS PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME GUIDANCE POINTING
TOWARDS A COMPLEX SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. AS A
RESULT HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY LATE MON NGT...THEN GIVEN THE
QUASI-FLAT MID-LVL FLOW BEING PROGRESSIVE...POPS SHUD STEADILY RAMP
BACK DOWN ARND DAYBREAK TUE FROM WEST TO EAST.
SKIES SHUD BE P-CLOUDY MOST OF THE DAY MON...WITH TEMPS PUSHING BACK
INTO THE LOW/MID 80S MON. THEN WITH CLOUDS ROLLING BACK IN FOR
MON-NIGHT...TEMPS SHUD HOLD UP IN THE MID/UPR 60S.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD TUE...WITH SFC ANTI-CYCLONIC
FEATURE POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST FLOW FOR TUE. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN
TO STEEPEN BY MIDDAY TUE/AFTN TUE...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT
ADVECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST
A WEAK LOBE OF VORTICITY SLIDING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISC TUE
AFTN...WHICH COULD HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW ISO STORMS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFT HEATING CYCLE. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST TUE NGT...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AND BRINGING A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER BY TUE NGT THRU WED.
LIGHT GRADIENT AND SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WED...TEMPS SHUD MAINLY BE IN
THE UPR 70S. LAKE BREEZE SHUD EASILY DEVELOP EARLY WED AFTN...AND
BRING COOLER MARINE AIR BACK INTO NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BEGIN WITH A WEAK MID-LVL TROUGH PIVOTING
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THUR/FRI...WITH ENSEMBLES LEANING
TOWARDS A WESTERN CONUS MID-LVL RIDGE DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SUGGESTIVE OF A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK LOBE OF VORTICITY
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY SAT...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH BROAD
MID-LVL RIDGING PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THIS
TIMEFRAME...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY COULD BE A CHALLENGE. WILL CARRY
LOW CHC POPS SAT/SAT NGT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL START OUT IN THE UPR 70S...THEN
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO BE SEASONAL IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* BROKEN LINE OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHRAS/TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
* POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
2%
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
* UPDATE 3Z
REMOVED TEMPO FOR THUNDER AT ALL SITES EXCEPT RFD DUE TO WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE CONVECTION HOLDING
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO IMPACT THE REST
OF THE TERMINALS.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT. A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS HAS DVLPD ALONG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS WI AND IA. THIS FRONT IS FCST TO PUSH SE THRU THE NIGHT
BRINGING A THREAT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF A STRONGER STORM DIRECTLY IMPACTS A
TERMINAL. THERE IS SOME QUESTION OF HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL EXIST
ALONG THE FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE AREA. THE FRONT HAS
BEEN SLOW TO MOVE THIS AFTN SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE
TIMING GETS PUSHED BACK AGAIN THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME WSWRLY
AFTER FROPA EVENTUALLY BECOMING NWRLY BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS
THE THREAT THAT A LAKE BREEZE MAY DVLP BY MONDAY AFTN...BUT NOT
SURE HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH AGAINST DECENT NW WINDS.
MDW AND GYY WOULD BE THE SITES MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE LAKE
BREEZE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
2%
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE AFTERNOON.
2%
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM DURING THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.
2%
&&
.MARINE...
200 PM CDT
FOR THE SMALL CRAFT...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO START GUSTING AS THE
CLOUDS ARE THINNING. CONDITIONS STILL LOOK MARGINAL BUT WILL KEEP
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING. NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO THIN AND WIND SPEEDS ARE GETTING
STRONGER. STILL EXPECTING 15-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE IS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND IT WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND BECOME WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL
VARY FROM W TO SW ACROSS THE LAKE TOMORROW AND A LAKE BREEZE IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF WILMETTE HARBOR. A WEAK LOW FORMS ALONG A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME NW AT 10-15 KT.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHEN THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OVER THE LAKE BUT EXPECTING IT WEDNESDAY EVENING OR NIGHT. WEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS BECOME S TO SE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
FRIDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
826 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
815 PM CDT
HAVE FURTHER REFINED POPS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR PRAIRIE DU CHIEN BACK TO MARSHALLTOWN
IOWA. OTHERWISE...A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND IS A LIKELY FACTOR IN DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS ON THE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. A FEW SMALL CELLS HAVE POPPED UP
NEAR THE WI BORDER WITH CAPPING INDICATED BY RECENT AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS LIMITING THEIR DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. CAPPING MAY ERODE
AS SUN SETS SO SOME UPTICK IN SPOTTY ACTIVITY NEAR THE WI BORDER
AND OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN MAY OCCUR BUT SEE LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STORM EVOLUTION TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS REMAINS THE
MAIN QUESTION...ESPECIALLY AS THE SUN SETS. THE IOWA ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT
ARRIVAL INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA TOWARD 04Z AND IN THE
WEST/NORTHWEST CHICAGO METRO TOWARD 06Z ASSUMING MAINTENANCE. AT
THIS POINT DECENT ORGANIZATION LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED INTO THE
WESTERN CWA GIVEN LARGER SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY A NOT TERRIBLY
WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH...BUT COVERAGE MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE
TOWARD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN TERMS OF SEVERE THREAT...HAVE NOT
SEEN ANY REPORTS OF STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OR HAIL FROM THE IOWA
STORMS THUS FAR...THOUGH FUNNEL CLOUDS AND A FEW BRIEF TORNADO
TOUCHDOWNS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. THESE HAVE BEEN WITHIN THE AXIS OF
EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING AN IMPRESSIVE
150-200 J/KG OF SFC- 3KM CAPE...WHICH IS CERTAINLY PLENTY FOR LOW
LEVEL STRETCHING OF VORTICITY. DO NOT SEE THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY
EXTENDING MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS.
LOCALLY...WITH FAIRLY LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF STORMS DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT. GIVEN
TIME OF DAY AND STORM PERFORMANCE SO FAR THINK ANY SEVERE WOULD BE
ISOLATED.
MDB
&&
.DISCUSSION...
106 PM CDT
THIS EVENING...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING REMAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP PRE-FRONTAL. CLOUD REMNANTS FROM
MORNING COMPLEX REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS THIS AREA OF LOW/MID DECK CLOUDS SLOWLY SLIDING
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. THIS WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN SOME STABILITY. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARM LAYER
ALOFT...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THIS LAYER WILL BEGIN TO DISSOLVE
CLOSER TO 00-02Z MON. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO ADVECT
NORTH...HOWEVER THERE IS A MOIST BOUNDARY THAT EXISTS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTN...SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST. MLCAPE IS
PROGGED TO RISE NEAR 2000-3000J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTN. DEW PTS WILL RISE TO ARND 70 AND POSSIBLY BY
LATE AFTN NEAR THE LOW 70S IN A FEW LOCATIONS. SFC WINDS ARE RATHER
UNIFORM EARLY THIS AFTN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER OVER TIME THE
WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND POSSIBLY JUST EAST OF
SOUTH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING. THIS WILL ENHANCE
THE HELICITY COMPONENT LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE IF CONVECTION IS
ABLE TO EXHIBIT FURTHER GROWTH/ENHANCEMENT...IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT A
FEW UPDRAFTS COULD BEGIN TO ROTATE. WIND SHEAR STEADILY INCREASING
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING...WILL BRING A GREATER HAZARD
FOR SOME STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
AND POTENTIAL FOR HAIL LARGER THAN 1" DIAMETER. BUT AGAIN...THE
WILDCARD REMAINS WITH THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OVERNIGHT THRU MONDAY...
THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING
CONVECTION...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL BE
SLIDING EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WHICH SHUD CLEAR THE
SOUTHEAST CWFA CLOSE TO 9Z MON. THIS SHUD QUICKLY BRING A DRY WEDGE
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT. SFC ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP
TO USHER IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR LATE TONIGHT...EARLY MON. WITH THE
MID-LVL FLOW TRYING TO FLATTEN...THE SFC FEATURE SHUD QUICKLY PUSH
EAST...WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF VORTICITY PROGGED TO ARRIVE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MON AFTN/EVE. MID-LVL INSTABILITY WILL STEADILY
INCREASE MON AFTN...HOWEVER THE MOST UNSTABLE REGION WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG/NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MON EVENING SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
IS PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME GUIDANCE POINTING
TOWARDS A COMPLEX SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. AS A
RESULT HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY LATE MON NGT...THEN GIVEN THE
QUASI-FLAT MID-LVL FLOW BEING PROGRESSIVE...POPS SHUD STEADILY RAMP
BACK DOWN ARND DAYBREAK TUE FROM WEST TO EAST.
SKIES SHUD BE P-CLOUDY MOST OF THE DAY MON...WITH TEMPS PUSHING BACK
INTO THE LOW/MID 80S MON. THEN WITH CLOUDS ROLLING BACK IN FOR
MON-NIGHT...TEMPS SHUD HOLD UP IN THE MID/UPR 60S.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD TUE...WITH SFC ANTI-CYCLONIC
FEATURE POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST FLOW FOR TUE. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN
TO STEEPEN BY MIDDAY TUE/AFTN TUE...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT
ADVECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST
A WEAK LOBE OF VORTICITY SLIDING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISC TUE
AFTN...WHICH COULD HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW ISO STORMS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFT HEATING CYCLE. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST TUE NGT...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AND BRINGING A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER BY TUE NGT THRU WED.
LIGHT GRADIENT AND SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WED...TEMPS SHUD MAINLY BE IN
THE UPR 70S. LAKE BREEZE SHUD EASILY DEVELOP EARLY WED AFTN...AND
BRING COOLER MARINE AIR BACK INTO NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BEGIN WITH A WEAK MID-LVL TROUGH PIVOTING
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THUR/FRI...WITH ENSEMBLES LEANING
TOWARDS A WESTERN CONUS MID-LVL RIDGE DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SUGGESTIVE OF A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK LOBE OF VORTICITY
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY SAT...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH BROAD
MID-LVL RIDGING PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THIS
TIMEFRAME...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY COULD BE A CHALLENGE. WILL CARRY
LOW CHC POPS SAT/SAT NGT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL START OUT IN THE UPR 70S...THEN
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO BE SEASONAL IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IMPACTING THE TERMINALS AROUND 6Z
* POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
2%
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT. A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS HAS DVLPD ALONG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS WI AND IA. THIS FRONT IS FCST TO PUSH SE THRU THE NIGHT
BRINGING A THREAT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF A STRONGER STORM DIRECTLY IMPACTS A
TERMINAL. THERE IS SOME QUESTION OF HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL EXIST
ALONG THE FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE AREA. THE FRONT HAS
BEEN SLOW TO MOVE THIS AFTN SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE
TIMING GETS PUSHED BACK AGAIN THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME WSWRLY
AFTER FROPA EVENTUALLY BECOMING NWRLY BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS
THE THREAT THAT A LAKE BREEZE MAY DVLP BY MONDAY AFTN...BUT NOT
SURE HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH AGAINST DECENT NW WINDS.
MDW AND GYY WOULD BE THE SITES MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE LAKE
BREEZE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
2%
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
2%
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM DURING THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.
2%
&&
.MARINE...
200 PM CDT
FOR THE SMALL CRAFT...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO START GUSTING AS THE
CLOUDS ARE THINNING. CONDITIONS STILL LOOK MARGINAL BUT WILL KEEP
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING. NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO THIN AND WIND SPEEDS ARE GETTING
STRONGER. STILL EXPECTING 15-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE IS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND IT WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND BECOME WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL
VARY FROM W TO SW ACROSS THE LAKE TOMORROW AND A LAKE BREEZE IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF WILMETTE HARBOR. A WEAK LOW FORMS ALONG A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME NW AT 10-15 KT.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHEN THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OVER THE LAKE BUT EXPECTING IT WEDNESDAY EVENING OR NIGHT. WEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS BECOME S TO SE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
FRIDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
312 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MCV/MCS CURRENTLY EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD BACK BUT ARE RECOVERING ACROSS THE
WEST. WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN MO THIS MORNING HAS BEEN REINFORCED
BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MESOSCALE SYSTEM...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTH DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. MODELS AT ODDS ABOUT
CONVECTION COVERAGE TONIGHT...BUT HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THROUGH IOWA OVERNIGHT. WEAKEST PORTION OF THE H700 CAP FAVORS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HRRR REFLECTS SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH
A BAND OF STORMS FORMING AFT 04Z NEAR I80 CORRIDOR...VARIOUS OTHER
SOLUTIONS ALSO FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EAST OR ALONG THE
IOWA/MO BORDER BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND IMPINGES ALONG THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WILL
INCREASE POPS AGAIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE EAST AND
SOUTH...WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SUGGEST SOME SOUTHEASTERLY DRIFT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...IF CONVECTION GETS A
BIT MORE ORGANIZED COULD SEE A QUICK INCH OR TWO TOTAL FROM ANY
STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS PUSHING 13-14KFT
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL RUNNING 1.5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED. AFTER LAST NIGHTS/THIS MORNING RAINFALL... GRIDDED
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS LOWERED TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER A GOOD
SHARE OF THE SOUTH WITH 3 HOURLY GUIDANCE NEARING 2 INCHES OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS. THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER COUNTIES CONTINUE
HIGHER...WITH 2 INCH VALUES FOR 1 HOUR AND 2 TO 3 INCH VALUES FOR
3 HOUR GUIDANCE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...NOT MUCH CAPACITY LEFT IN SOIL
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOWS WILL CREEP UP
TONIGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF MUCH SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN WITH
THE RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE RATHER ACTIVE WX AND AN
OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN OF WESTERLIES INVOF OF IOWA...EVOLVING
FROM BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW TO BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.
MAIN CHALLENGES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE TSRA CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE AS WELL AS LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH
IOWA SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
SUMMER-LIKE...WITH THERMAL RIDGING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
RESULTING IN SEASONALLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S
ARE EXPECTED. AN IMPULSE WILL SWEEP A COOL FRONT INTO THE STATE
ON SUNDAY. QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST ALONG THE FRONT WILL THE TSRA
DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
RESPECTABLE...CAPPING WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE WEST ACROSS THE
STATE. BEST CHANCES OF TSRA WILL BE IN EASTERN IOWA...WHERE THE
CAP WILL BE WEAKER AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE STRONGER. LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY LATE EVENING...SO
HAVE BROUGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE STAGE BY
THAT TIME. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY INVOF THE
IA-MO BORDER BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF TSRA BY LATE
MON. BOTH THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING WILL BE STRONGER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE ONE ON LATE SUN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH ANOTHER COOL FRONT SOUTH THROUGH IOWA...EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY INVOF THE IA-MO BORDER. AMPLE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
SFC-BASED TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST A FEW
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING.
AFTER THE FROPA MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING...CYCLONIC WESTERLIES
WILL DOMINATE THE WX INTO LATER IN THE WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN
WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK IMPULSE PASSES
OVER THE REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
BRINGING ANOTHER BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z RUN
WAS CONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD WITH THE 00Z RUN. THIS SOLUTION IS
ADMITTEDLY DIFFERENT THAN LAST NIGHT/S LONG TERM PACKAGE WHICH
KEPT THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE CWA. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE CWA TO END THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...05/18Z
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE CIGS AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. OLD
MCV/MCS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH POCKETS OF IFR CIG STILL
EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION AT 100 PM...GRADUALLY THE CIGS SHOULD
LIFT A BIT TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AS THE CONVECTION PULLS AWAY.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SOME HINT AT STORM REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL...SIGNAL NOT ALL THAT STRONG RIGHT NOW. BR
WILL RETURN TOWARD 09Z WITH POTENTIAL 2-5SM VSBY FOR SEVERAL HOURS
EITHER SIDE 12Z. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP FROM SW WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BY 15Z AS CAP ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION DOWN UNTIL
FRONT APPROACHES AFT 18Z ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
104 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MCV AND ASSOCIATED MESO COMPLEX WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING
ESE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE NEARING AN EXIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 18-20Z. SOME REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...NEARER THE WARM FRONT AND STRONGER FORCING BACK IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA/NORTHERN MO. FOR NOW...HAVE
DIMINISHED POP THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON EAST BUT WILL REVISIT
FORECAST AGAIN FOR THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
PICTURE OVER NEBRASKA AND POTENTIAL FOR RECOVERY THERE BECOMES
MORE CLEAR. TEMPS HAVE COOLED A BIT WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
COLD POOL WITH RAINFALL...THUS MOST OF EAST WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MO VALLEY ELEVATED MCS CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS MORNING DRIVEN
BY MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING. EFFECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...500-1000 J/KG AND AROUND 40KTS
RESPECTIVELY...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION AND STORMS
PUSHING SEVERE LIMITS JUST TO OUR WEST. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS
THE MCS PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH IA LATER THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLY
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS BUT PRIMARILY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HEAVY
RAINS MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT WITH RAP PWS NOW UP TO 1.8 FUELED BY
STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT. COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WITH
THE MEAN WIND AND NOT FOLLOWING UPWIND PROPAGATION
/CORFIDI/ VECTOR SUGGESTING IT WOULD BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH AT 2-3KM
WITH LESS LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE AND MORE DRIVEN BY HIGHER LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. THUS WILL ADD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MENTION THIS MORNING BUT HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT ANTICIPATED.
FORCING MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY HOWEVER SO HAVE LOWERED
POPS WEST BUT KEPT CHANCES GOING EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
DOES BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES 4-
5K J/KG...BUT SOME CINH IS APPARENT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z.
HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC WITH GFS...NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING VARIED DEGREES OF MIXING. WITH MCS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HAVE PLAYED IT MORE CONSERVATIVE AND BELOW RAP
STAYING CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE. AIRMASS WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL
THROUGH THE 60S BY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ROUGHLY ZONAL 500
MB FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTH BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE AMPLIFIED AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CARVE OUT A MODEST 500 MB TROUGH FROM
THE MIDWEST OVER TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE FIRST SUCH IMPULSE WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME STORMS TODAY AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION ABOVE...AND THESE MAY LINGER IN OUR EAST AND SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OUT. THE SECOND IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING A COOL FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...THERMAL RIDGING ALONG WITH MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE GOOD HEATING AND AN IMPRESSIVE
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND VERY
HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS...THOSE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
POTENTIALLY EDGING ABOVE 100 DEGREES MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE
DAY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD CAPPING THAT WILL
BE TOUGH TO BREAK AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED PRETTY LOW POPS...PEAKING SUNDAY EVENING AS CAPPING
WEAKENS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN.
THE COOL FRONT WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES
LOWER WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SCOOTING THROUGH. THE STRONGEST 500
MB TROUGH OF THE SERIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING STRONG FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT
OVERNIGHT AND PROBABLY YIELDING SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE ARE SOME
TIMING QUESTIONS BUT IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE PRETTY
WIDESPREAD AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A MORE WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS IOWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WAVE ALOFT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SEVERAL DAYS OF RELIEF WITH HIGHS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWER HUMIDITY. POPS WILL BE
VERY LOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
THE FAR EXTENDED IS A BIT TRICKER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BY
THURSDAY THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. 500 MB TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN CARVED
OUT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA...INITIALLY
REPLACED BY WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER IOWA WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BUILDING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. THE GFS AND THE
PREVIOUS /12Z/ RUN OF THE ECMWF HAD BEEN BUILDING THIS BIG HEAT
DOME OVER IOWA INTO NEXT WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY AND VERY HOT
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE AND IS
USING A CANADIAN 500 MB TROUGH...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE
GFS DEPICTION...TO CARVE INTO THE RIDGE AND BRING THE INFAMOUS
RING OF FIRE DOWN OVER IOWA NEXT WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS
SOLUTION...HOT AND DRY UNDER THE BIG BUBBLE...SEEMS MORE FEASIBLE
FOR NOW AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS AND FAIRLY HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS APPROPRIATE. IF THE SOLUTIONS CONVERGE THAT WAY THEN LONG RANGE
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE RAISED ABOVE CURRENT VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...05/18Z
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE CIGS AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. OLD
MCV/MCS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH POCKETS OF IFR CIG STILL
EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION AT 100 PM...GRADUALLY THE CIGS SHOULD
LIFT A BIT TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AS THE CONVECTION PULLS AWAY.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SOME HINT AT STORM REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL...SIGNAL NOT ALL THAT STRONG RIGHT NOW.
BR WILL RETURN TOWARD 09Z WITH POTENTIAL 2-5SM VSBY FOR SEVERAL
HOURS EITHER SIDE 12Z. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP FROM SW WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY 15Z AS CAP ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION DOWN
UNTIL FRONT APPROACHES AFT 18Z ACROSS THE NORTH./REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1033 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MCV AND ASSOCIATED MESO COMPLEX WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING
ESE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE NEARING AN EXIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 18-20Z. SOME REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...NEARER THE WARM FRONT AND STRONGER FORCING BACK IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA/NORTHERN MO. FOR NOW...HAVE
DIMINISHED POP THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON EAST BUT WILL REVISIT
FORECAST AGAIN FOR THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
PICTURE OVER NEBRASKA AND POTENTIAL FOR RECOVERY THERE BECOMES
MORE CLEAR. TEMPS HAVE COOLED A BIT WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
COLD POOL WITH RAINFALL...THUS MOST OF EAST WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MO VALLEY ELEVATED MCS CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS MORNING DRIVEN
BY MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING. EFFECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...500-1000 J/KG AND AROUND 40KTS
RESPECTIVELY...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION AND STORMS
PUSHING SEVERE LIMITS JUST TO OUR WEST. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS
THE MCS PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH IA LATER THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLY
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS BUT PRIMARILY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HEAVY
RAINS MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT WITH RAP PWS NOW UP TO 1.8 FUELED BY
STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT. COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WITH
THE MEAN WIND AND NOT FOLLOWING UPWIND PROPAGATION
/CORFIDI/ VECTOR SUGGESTING IT WOULD BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH AT 2-3KM
WITH LESS LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE AND MORE DRIVEN BY HIGHER LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. THUS WILL ADD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MENTION THIS MORNING BUT HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT ANTICIPATED.
FORCING MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY HOWEVER SO HAVE LOWERED
POPS WEST BUT KEPT CHANCES GOING EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
DOES BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES 4-
5K J/KG...BUT SOME CINH IS APPARENT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z.
HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC WITH GFS...NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING VARIED DEGREES OF MIXING. WITH MCS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HAVE PLAYED IT MORE CONSERVATIVE AND BELOW RAP
STAYING CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE. AIRMASS WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL
THROUGH THE 60S BY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ROUGHLY ZONAL 500
MB FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTH BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE AMPLIFIED AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CARVE OUT A MODEST 500 MB TROUGH FROM
THE MIDWEST OVER TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE FIRST SUCH IMPULSE WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME STORMS TODAY AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION ABOVE...AND THESE MAY LINGER IN OUR EAST AND SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OUT. THE SECOND IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING A COOL FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...THERMAL RIDGING ALONG WITH MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE GOOD HEATING AND AN IMPRESSIVE
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND VERY
HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS...THOSE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
POTENTIALLY EDGING ABOVE 100 DEGREES MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE
DAY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD CAPPING THAT WILL
BE TOUGH TO BREAK AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED PRETTY LOW POPS...PEAKING SUNDAY EVENING AS CAPPING
WEAKENS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN.
THE COOL FRONT WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES
LOWER WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SCOOTING THROUGH. THE STRONGEST 500
MB TROUGH OF THE SERIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING STRONG FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT
OVERNIGHT AND PROBABLY YIELDING SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE ARE SOME
TIMING QUESTIONS BUT IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE PRETTY
WIDESPREAD AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A MORE WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS IOWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WAVE ALOFT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SEVERAL DAYS OF RELIEF WITH HIGHS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWER HUMIDITY. POPS WILL BE
VERY LOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
THE FAR EXTENDED IS A BIT TRICKER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BY
THURSDAY THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. 500 MB TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN CARVED
OUT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA...INITIALLY
REPLACED BY WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER IOWA WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BUILDING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. THE GFS AND THE
PREVIOUS /12Z/ RUN OF THE ECMWF HAD BEEN BUILDING THIS BIG HEAT
DOME OVER IOWA INTO NEXT WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY AND VERY HOT
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE AND IS
USING A CANADIAN 500 MB TROUGH...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE
GFS DEPICTION...TO CARVE INTO THE RIDGE AND BRING THE INFAMOUS
RING OF FIRE DOWN OVER IOWA NEXT WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS
SOLUTION...HOT AND DRY UNDER THE BIG BUBBLE...SEEMS MORE FEASIBLE
FOR NOW AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS AND FAIRLY HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS APPROPRIATE. IF THE SOLUTIONS CONVERGE THAT WAY THEN LONG RANGE
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE RAISED ABOVE CURRENT VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...05/12Z
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL AFFECT KFOD/KDSM/KOTM FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH MVFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS AT KDSM. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
WEAKER CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE. CONCERN WILL THEN TURN TO FOG OR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT WITH
RAIN TODAY AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS HAVE INTRODUCED AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
712 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MO VALLEY ELEVATED MCS CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS MORNING DRIVEN
BY MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING. EFFECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...500-1000 J/KG AND AROUND 40KTS
RESPECTIVELY...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION AND STORMS
PUSHING SEVERE LIMITS JUST TO OUR WEST. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS
THE MCS PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH IA LATER THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLY
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS BUT PRIMARILY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HEAVY
RAINS MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT WITH RAP PWS NOW UP TO 1.8 FUELED BY
STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT. COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WITH
THE MEAN WIND AND NOT FOLLOWING UPWIND PROPAGATION
/CORFIDI/ VECTOR SUGGESTING IT WOULD BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH AT 2-3KM
WITH LESS LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE AND MORE DRIVEN BY HIGHER LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. THUS WILL ADD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MENTION THIS MORNING BUT HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT ANTICIPATED.
FORCING MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY HOWEVER SO HAVE LOWERED
POPS WEST BUT KEPT CHANCES GOING EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
DOES BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES 4-
5K J/KG...BUT SOME CINH IS APPARENT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z.
HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC WITH GFS...NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING VARIED DEGREES OF MIXING. WITH MCS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HAVE PLAYED IT MORE CONSERVATIVE AND BELOW RAP
STAYING CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE. AIRMASS WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL
THROUGH THE 60S BY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ROUGHLY ZONAL 500
MB FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTH BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE AMPLIFIED AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CARVE OUT A MODEST 500 MB TROUGH FROM
THE MIDWEST OVER TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE FIRST SUCH IMPULSE WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME STORMS TODAY AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION ABOVE...AND THESE MAY LINGER IN OUR EAST AND SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OUT. THE SECOND IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING A COOL FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...THERMAL RIDGING ALONG WITH MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE GOOD HEATING AND AN IMPRESSIVE
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND VERY
HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS...THOSE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
POTENTIALLY EDGING ABOVE 100 DEGREES MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE
DAY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD CAPPING THAT WILL
BE TOUGH TO BREAK AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED PRETTY LOW POPS...PEAKING SUNDAY EVENING AS CAPPING
WEAKENS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN.
THE COOL FRONT WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES
LOWER WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SCOOTING THROUGH. THE STRONGEST 500
MB TROUGH OF THE SERIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING STRONG FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT
OVERNIGHT AND PROBABLY YIELDING SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE ARE SOME
TIMING QUESTIONS BUT IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE PRETTY
WIDESPREAD AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A MORE WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS IOWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WAVE ALOFT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SEVERAL DAYS OF RELIEF WITH HIGHS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWER HUMIDITY. POPS WILL BE
VERY LOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
THE FAR EXTENDED IS A BIT TRICKER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BY
THURSDAY THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. 500 MB TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN CARVED
OUT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA...INITIALLY
REPLACED BY WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER IOWA WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BUILDING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. THE GFS AND THE
PREVIOUS /12Z/ RUN OF THE ECMWF HAD BEEN BUILDING THIS BIG HEAT
DOME OVER IOWA INTO NEXT WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY AND VERY HOT
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE AND IS
USING A CANADIAN 500 MB TROUGH...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE
GFS DEPICTION...TO CARVE INTO THE RIDGE AND BRING THE INFAMOUS
RING OF FIRE DOWN OVER IOWA NEXT WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS
SOLUTION...HOT AND DRY UNDER THE BIG BUBBLE...SEEMS MORE FEASIBLE
FOR NOW AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS AND FAIRLY HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS APPROPRIATE. IF THE SOLUTIONS CONVERGE THAT WAY THEN LONG RANGE
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE RAISED ABOVE CURRENT VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...05/12Z
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL AFFECT KFOD/KDSM/KOTM FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH MVFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS AT KDSM. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
WEAKER CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE. CONCERN WILL THEN TURN TO FOG OR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT WITH
RAIN TODAY AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS HAVE INTRODUCED AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MO VALLEY ELEVATED MCS CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS MORNING DRIVEN
BY MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING. EFFECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...500-1000 J/KG AND AROUND 40KTS
RESPECTIVELY...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION AND STORMS
PUSHING SEVERE LIMITS JUST TO OUR WEST. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS
THE MCS PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH IA LATER THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLY
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS BUT PRIMARILY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HEAVY
RAINS MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT WITH RAP PWS NOW UP TO 1.8 FUELED BY
STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT. COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WITH
THE MEAN WIND AND NOT FOLLOWING UPWIND PROPAGATION
/CORFIDI/ VECTOR SUGGESTING IT WOULD BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH AT 2-3KM
WITH LESS LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE AND MORE DRIVEN BY HIGHER LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. THUS WILL ADD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MENTION THIS MORNING BUT HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT ANTICIPATED.
FORCING MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY HOWEVER SO HAVE LOWERED
POPS WEST BUT KEPT CHANCES GOING EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
DOES BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES 4-
5K J/KG...BUT SOME CINH IS APPARENT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z.
HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC WITH GFS...NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING VARIED DEGREES OF MIXING. WITH MCS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HAVE PLAYED IT MORE CONSERVATIVE AND BELOW RAP
STAYING CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE. AIRMASS WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL
THROUGH THE 60S BY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ROUGHLY ZONAL 500
MB FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTH BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE AMPLIFIED AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CARVE OUT A MODEST 500 MB TROUGH FROM
THE MIDWEST OVER TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE FIRST SUCH IMPULSE WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME STORMS TODAY AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION ABOVE...AND THESE MAY LINGER IN OUR EAST AND SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OUT. THE SECOND IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING A COOL FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...THERMAL RIDGING ALONG WITH MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE GOOD HEATING AND AN IMPRESSIVE
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND VERY
HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS...THOSE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
POTENTIALLY EDGING ABOVE 100 DEGREES MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE
DAY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD CAPPING THAT WILL
BE TOUGH TO BREAK AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED PRETTY LOW POPS...PEAKING SUNDAY EVENING AS CAPPING
WEAKENS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN.
THE COOL FRONT WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES
LOWER WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SCOOTING THROUGH. THE STRONGEST 500
MB TROUGH OF THE SERIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING STRONG FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT
OVERNIGHT AND PROBABLY YIELDING SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE ARE SOME
TIMING QUESTIONS BUT IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE PRETTY
WIDESPREAD AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A MORE WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS IOWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WAVE ALOFT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SEVERAL DAYS OF RELIEF WITH HIGHS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWER HUMIDITY. POPS WILL BE
VERY LOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
THE FAR EXTENDED IS A BIT TRICKER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BY
THURSDAY THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. 500 MB TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN CARVED
OUT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA...INITIALLY
REPLACED BY WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER IOWA WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BUILDING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. THE GFS AND THE
PREVIOUS /12Z/ RUN OF THE ECMWF HAD BEEN BUILDING THIS BIG HEAT
DOME OVER IOWA INTO NEXT WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY AND VERY HOT
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE AND IS
USING A CANADIAN 500 MB TROUGH...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE
GFS DEPICTION...TO CARVE INTO THE RIDGE AND BRING THE INFAMOUS
RING OF FIRE DOWN OVER IOWA NEXT WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS
SOLUTION...HOT AND DRY UNDER THE BIG BUBBLE...SEEMS MORE FEASIBLE
FOR NOW AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS AND FAIRLY HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS APPROPRIATE. IF THE SOLUTIONS CONVERGE THAT WAY THEN LONG RANGE
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE RAISED ABOVE CURRENT VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...05/06Z
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM ND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES ON SUN...STALLING TO THE SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT. AN AREAS OF VFR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE PERIOD WILL BE 3 TO 5 HOURS. THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN
STATUS...FOG...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOR MID WEEK IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...MS JUL 14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
248 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
Forecast today quickly challenged with mesoscale conditions as
convective complex moved across eastern Nebraska in the early
morning hours. An outflow boundary then moved southwest into
northeast Kansas, through about Topeka to just east of Marysville.
As southwesterly surface winds have strengthened through the day,
they have worked to counter slightly reinforced outflow and push
this boundary back to the north. Little progress was made on the
east end, and appears as though the incoming upper shortwave
evident on WV imagery will move across this boundary for the
remainder of the afternoon and evening hours.
While shear is not ideal, and high surface dewpoints not conducive
for a high end wind threat, there is enough instability
(2000-3000J/kg range) to consider hail and possibly locally heavy
rainfall a threat if these storms develop and move through.
Forecast is certainly probabilistic - GFS confines convection more
east, as does the EC, although the EC is slower with its exit
through the morning on Sunday. The HRRR and NAM extend area of
convection farther westward from NE KS and drop cluster of precip
south southeast across the area through the evening hours. Have
played the forecast toward the latter, although kept coverage
isolated in nature as it passes through. Can`t rule out a bust with
precip, especially as you go west, but do think the far eastern
counties will see hit and miss showers and thunderstorms as the
evening goes on.
Heat returns on Sunday as mid level temperatures climb under the
shortwave ridge behind the departing shortwave trof. Have highs in
the 90s with heat indices coming out in the 99-103 range as the
dewpoints hold around 70 east to the 60s west...however western
counties are hotter so in the end heat index differences are subtle
at best.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
By Sunday evening the cold front dips southward from central NE,
straddling the KS and NE border near 00Z. The main upper trough
positioned to our north and east at this time has given guidance
lower confidence in precip developing near the weakly convergent
frontal boundary until after midnight. Northern areas of the CWA
have a slight chance for thunderstorms while most of the CWA
remains dry.
Monday afternoon will be another hot and humid day as the surface
trough over western KS deepens, increasing southwesterly flow and
mixing of warmer air aloft. Highs once again in the mid to upper 90s
are likely with heat indices between 100 and 103 degrees. A more
potent shortwave trough digs southward through the plains on Monday
evening, shunting the cold front through the CWA by 18Z Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the Nebraska and
northwest MO border, decreasing to a chance further south as the
heavier precip bands follow the upper trough axis centered over
central/northern MO. Wind shear through 6 KM increases overnight
with the passing wave between 30 and 40 kts while MLCAPE is around
1500 J/KG. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out, especially if
they redevelop or are able to become sfc based in the afternoon.
Winds shift back towards the south with another incoming upper wave
expected Wednesday evening. Trends show the heavier precip bands to
impact mainly north central and portions of central KS where highest
pops were placed. Precipitation will wane as it lifts northeast
through Thursday, replaced by temporary ridging on Friday. Saturday
begins the unsettled pattern once again as northwest flow begins
to bring another series of weak disturbances through the region.
Highs behind the boundary Tuesday through Thursday will cool back to
the 80s with lows in the upper 60s. Increased warm advection Friday
and Saturday, raise temps once again to the 90s accompanied by lows
in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
Outflow boundary has made it as far south as TOP/FOE terminals,
so have added tempo light winds to accommodate until southwesterly
winds can push a retreat. Will add vcsh for current periods then
VCTS for evening as slightly stronger wave pushes south into the
area. Should clear just before sunrise at terminals.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1019 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE, WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST TEMPS/SKY COVER. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES ~1020+MB HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH A
RIDGE AXIS TRAILING BACK INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. DISORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN VICINITY OF THE GA/FL COAST.
GOES WV IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY, WHICH WILL DRAW THE LOW OFF THE FL COAST
NORTHEAST JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD BRING NO
MORE THAN A PERIOD OF SCT- BKN CLOUDS TO NE NC/FAR SE VA OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S...TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW, RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY
CONDITIONS MONDAY. A MODEST RISE IN DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED AS SSW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW
VALUES TO FALL/REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH
THE LOW/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST TUESDAY...AND WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AS SECONDARY ENERGY WRAPS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH. THIS WILL DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC BY LATER WEDNESDAY. ANY CONVECTION TUESDAY WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HAVE DIFFICULTY DRIFTING E AS THE THERMAL
PROFILE WILL LIKELY BE TOO STABLE...AND THERE WILL BE A LACK OF ANY
SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER. SOMEWHAT MORE OF A TRIGGER IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO ABOVE A 20-30% POP AT THIS
TIME.
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH MAXIMA RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 100 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN INTO THE MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED UPPER TROF ALONG THE ERN USE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
AMPLIFY SOME TOWARD THE LATER PERIODS. THIS HELPS TO PUSH A FRONT
DOWN INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THE FRONT JUST STALLS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND GFS ENSEMBLE BOTH SHOW A
SIMILAR PATTERN. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS WHETHER THE FRONT COULD
ACTUALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ONE OF THE DAYS BUT FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTHEAST. ALSO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS PER STLT
MAINLY SE PORTIONS SHOULD CLEAR OFF OVERNIGHT ACCORDING TO NAM12.
SCT CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY. WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY FROM THE S/SW...SOME GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA IN THE BAY TO 10 AM/14Z AND ADDED THE LOWER JAMES
RIVER. HRRR AND RUC VERIFYING WELL AND WINDS CONTINUE NEAR 20
KNOTS THROUGH 12Z THEN DROP OFF SHARPLY. ADDED LOWER JAMES AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM S TO SW. NE PORTION OF BAY ZONES HAVE THE
STRONGEST WINDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HI PRES WAS CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLC CST LATE THIS AFTN...AND
WILL BECOME ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST THRU WED. HAVE
MAINTAINED A SCA FOR THE CHES BAY ZNS THRU 1 AM TNGT OR 4 AM EARLY
MON MORNG...DUE TO INCREASING S WINDS CLOSE TO 20 KT. SSW WINDS 10
TO 20 KT WILL THEN PREVAIL OVR THE WTRS MON THRU WED...DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF HI PRES ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST AND A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FM THE WNW. SEAS OVR THE CSTL WTRS
WILL AVG 3-4 FT WITH WAVES OVR THE CHES BAY AVGG 2-3 FT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE WTRS LATE WED THRU FRI.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
702 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DOWNSTREAM FROM A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND WRN PLAINS. A PROMINENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NW ONTARIO TO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NE MN FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR CYPL.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS COVER OVER THE REGION HAS INHIBITED DIABATIC HEATING
AND KEPT MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE OVER MAINLY THE
WRN THIRD OF UPPER MI. AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER NE WI NEAR TO IMT
AND NEAR MNM WAS SUPPORTED BY WEAK TO MODERATE 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV AND 30 KNOT WSW 850-750 INFLOW PUSHING MUCAPE VALUES TO 1K
J/KG. ADDITIONAL STRONG TSRA WERE LOCATED OVER NE MN WERE LOCATED
NEAR THE COLD FRONT.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH SOME LATE AFTERNOON CLEARING
OVER WRN UPPER MI...ADDITIONAL HEATING MAY BOOST MLCAPE VALUES INTO
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA
BTWN 21Z-24Z...SCT/NMRS TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THAT
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...SUPPORTED BY 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE
35-40 KNOT RANGE. THE SHRA/TSRA WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ERN CWA
BTWN 00Z-03Z AND END OVER THE CNTRL CWA...AS THE COLD FRONT
ADVANCES. EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST.
MONDAY...EXPECT DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSRA WAS INCLUDED OVER THE FAR SW CWA AS A WEAK SHRTWV NEAR
THE AREA IN CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH OVER NRN
MANITOBA AND NRN ONTARIO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...WITH TYPICAL MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON MAGNITUDE AND PATH OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE ALONG OR S/SW OF THE WRN AND
SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR THESE LOCATIONS
FOR THE BEST POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. CONTINUED TO ONLY HAVE
CHANCE POPS DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED THAN WITH
THE PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE...SO CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF EVEN LOWER POPS
/SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE/ DURING THIS TIME.
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE MORE LIMITED WITH TIME...SO ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRI AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AFTER RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER
TUE AND WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S...THE RIDGE WILL BRING
A WARMING TREND AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S /OR EVEN THE
LOW 80S/ INLAND ON FRI.
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRI THROUGH
SAT...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. SUN COULD SEE SOME PRECIP IF THE ECMWF FORECAST VERIFIES
IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE NEAR THE CWA...BUT THE GFS HAS A DRY
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT IWD AND CMX THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR CIGS AND VIS WITH THAT AT SAW AND POSSIBLY
AT CMX. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY ADVECTION WILL BRING IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AT SAW. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT CMX AND MON
MORNING AT IWD/SAW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE MON AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO MONDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONG
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS/. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS N MINNESOTA AND W
ONTARIO WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND N LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...BEFORE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY. BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT...AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SINK
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
425 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO
THE NRN PLAINS AND A DOWNSTREAM WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO(NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR)
COMBINED WITH 25-30 KNOT 850-750 MB INFLOW OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR (MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 40 KNOT 0-6KM SHEAR
SUPPORTED STRONG CONVECTION OVER NE MN AND ADJOINING PORTION OF
ONTARIO. SOME SHRA/TSRA WERE ALSO SLIDING INTO LAKE SUPERIOR BUT
WERE WEAKENING AS THE CONVECTION MOVED AWAY FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE
AIR. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE AND SSW FLOW WAA PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE ONGOING SHRA/TSRA INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY SLIDE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NRN
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...PER RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANG HIGH RES
MODELS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM LATE
THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS MUCH HIGHER WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF MCS DEVELOPMENT AND ITS EVENTUAL TRACK. EXPECT THAT THE HIGHER
SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF UPPER MI BUT THAT
SOME MAY MOVE INTO UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WITH ONLY
LIMITED MUCAPE INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...ANY TSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
SUNDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER SHRTWV AND COLD FRONT MOVE TOWARD THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THAT
DEPENDS ON THE AMOUNT OF THICKER CLOUDS THAT LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH CLEARING DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS TO ALLOW TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 80S(DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S)...MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K RANGE COMBINED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 35-40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE ORGANIZED STORMS. 0-1KM
HELICITY/SHAPE IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS/SUPERCELLS.
IF MORE PROMINENT CLOUDS REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE GREATER
INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAINLY OVER WI AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE FAR SRN CWA. NMRS SHRA/TSRA OVER CNTRL UPPER MI DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE S AND ERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND SFC LOW WILL BE JUST N OF THE CWA WITH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA AT 00Z MON.
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY SEVERE /SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE
DETAILS ON SEVERE THREAT/...WILL BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. BY 06Z MON...THE FRONT
WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE ERN CWA...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION E OF
THE CWA.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO MOVE N OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY ON MON...BUT FORCING WILL STAY N KEEPING THE CWA DRY FOR THE
MOST PART. THE NAM IS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN MON
EVENING...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN PRECIP LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN
CWA...BUT MOST OTHER MODELS SHOW THIS COMING IN MON NIGHT OR EVEN
EARLY TUE. AS IS USUAL WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS IS QUITE LOW THIS
FAR OUT.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MON NIGHT OR TUE...WHICH
APPEARS TO STAY S OF THE CWA. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO
MOVE OVER THE NRN CWA TUE NIGHT...BUT WITH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE SHORTWAVE.
WITH THE GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WILL LEAD TO AN ABOVE NORMAL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL OCCUR THU THROUGH NEXT
SAT...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA WITH
THE INCREASING SRLY FLOW. SOME TSRA ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION/TIMING IS ONLY MARGINAL...ONLY RPROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER THE WEST. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY LATE SUN MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXIT
EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOK FOR THE RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TO
WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR S MANITOBA SUNDAY MORNING SLIDES ACROSS
ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL DEEPEN SW OF JAMES BAY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH AVERAGING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN OR NEAR ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
701 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE EAST AT ABOUT 20
KTS ACROSS MN TODAY...AND AT 3PM WAS IN THE PROCESS OF WORKING
ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES. MORNING CLOUDS SLOWED DOWN THE WARMING IN
THE TWIN CITIES...BUT THERE IS STILL HOPE FOR OUR FIRST 90 DEGREE
TEMP THIS YEAR AS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 2 HOUR WINDOW WHERE WE CAN
STILL WARM BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THE CAA KICKS IN. WE HAVE SEEN
PLACES LIKE REDWOOD FALLS...GLENCOE...AND NEW ULM HIT 90 IN THIS
ZONE AND IT WILL BE HITTING THE TWIN CITIES STILL DURING PEAK
HEATING BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM...SO DON/T GIVE UP HOPE ON THAT FIRST
90 JUST YET!
AS FOR STORM POTENTIAL...ACTIVITY OVER WI HAS BEEN ELEVATED...WITH
THE ATMO STILL CAPPED WITH RESPECT TO SFC BASED CONVECTION PER THE
STABLE CU FIELD /AT 230 PM/ STILL IN PLACE OVER WHAT IS A VERY JUICY
WARM SECTOR...WHERE DEWPS HAVE BEEN COMMONLY RISEN UP INTO THE MID
70S. STILL LOTS OF DISAGREEMENT WITH WHETHER OR NOT THIS FRONT WILL
EVEN GENERATE CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT...ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WRN MN AS EVIDENCED
BY DRYING ON WATER VAPOR BACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...PREFER THE IDEA
THE HRRR AND MEMBER1 OF THE 15Z HOPWRF SHOW WITH A SCT LINE OF
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AROUND 20Z AND QUICKLY SPREADING
EAST. THIS WOULD PLACE THE THUNDER THREAT MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
AN ALBERT LEA TO RICE LAKE LINE. SFC WINDS HAVE VEERED CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MINIMAL TORNADO THREAT...BUT
2K-4K J/KG OF MLCAPE...H7-H5 LAPSE RATES UP OVER 7 DEG C/KM...AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
WIND/HAIL THREAT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE IOWA BORDER WHERE
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE BETTER.
WILL SEE SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...BUT CONSISTENT NW WINDS WILL
BRING IN DEWPS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FOG
POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NRN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP INTO NODAK TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NODAK THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY SEND
SHOWERS/STORMS TOWARD CENTRAL MN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MORE ROBUST STORM COVERAGE OVER THE MPX CWA IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT STRONG SASKATCHEWAN WAVE
MOVES INTO WRN MN. FOR THIS WAVE...PREFERRED A GEM/ECMWF/GFS BLEND
FOR ITS TIMING. THE NAM IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH THE
WAVE...PLACING IT OVER ERN MN BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AS
OPPOSED TO WRN MN AS THE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING BASED ON THEIR QPF
FIELDS...BUT THE CAMS SHOW ACTIVITY BEING NOTICEABLY MORE SCATTERED
OVER MN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THERE
REALLY IS NO STRONG SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO THE CAMS ARE SIMPLY GENERATING CONVECTION WHERE THEY
CAN DEVELOP ENOUGH INSTABILITY.
THOUGH NW FLOW IS EXPECTED...1.5-2.5K J/KG OF MLCAPE COMBINED WITH
50-60 KTS OF BULK SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SEVERE
THREAT. HODOGRAPHS FOR MONDAY ARE MOSTLY LONG STRAIGHT
LINES...INDICATING THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL FROM
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. IF ENOUGH STORMS CAN INITIATE...WE WOULD
LIKELY END UP WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS OR TWO THAT WOULD HAVE A WIND
TREAT AS WELL. HIGHER LCLS /DUE TO THE DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
EXPECTED/ ALONG WITH THE SHEAR BEING MAINLY OF THE SPEED VARIETY
/WITH LITTLE DIRECTION CHANGE/ WILL GREATLY LIMIT ANY TORNADO
THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
WHILE THE BEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 21-00Z
IN WESTERN MN...EASTERN MN WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT THUNDER
BETWEEN 00-03Z...AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER IN WESTERN WI. THE MID-
LEVEL DRYING ARRIVES QUICKLY BETWEEN 03-06Z IN THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...SO THE PRECIP SHOULD GET QUICKLY SHUFFLED OFF TO
THE EAST LATE TOMORROW EVENING.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING INTO THE PLAINS AND
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
BREEZY...OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FLATTENS AS IT
SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER WITH RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING IN WESTERN MN IN THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL IMPROVE A FEW DEGREES. THE EAST WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF
AN 850MN COLD POCKET CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MODEL
CONSISTENCY ISN`T AS GOOD LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WEAK WAVES TO TRACK
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES REMAIN TOO DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT WITH EACH MODEL SHOWING SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
TIMING AND LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT - DID NOT REALLY ALTER THE POPS
MUCH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMATE NORMALS DURING THE PERIOD.
AFTER MONDAY...THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL PROBABILITY FOR PRECIP ARRIVES
ON THURSDAY WHEN THE FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE W-SW AND WARM
ADVECTION ARRIVES FROM THE DAKOTAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOSTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BOUTS OF
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SKC IS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. A LEADING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING
SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA TOWARD DAWN...WITH ACTIVITY
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A LOT OF THE
HI RES MODELS KEEP THE TSRA SCATTERED WHICH MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST TIMING AT ANY GIVEN TAF LOCATION. WHILE IT IS LIKELY ALL
TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY AT SOME POINT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON MORE PRECISE DETAILS
AT THIS TIME.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF INSTANCES OF IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA. KEPT MOST
OF THE PERIOD DRY UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INCREASES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 TO 20 KT.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5 TO 15 KT.
THU...VFR. CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT. WIND S 10 TO 15 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
THE REGION... BUT ONCE AGAIN THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THAT POTENTIAL
WILL BE REALIZED. WE SHOULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON... WHICH WILL LIKELY GROW UP SCALE INTO AN MCS.
IF THIS OCCURS OVER NORTH DAKOTA AS MOST OF THE MODELS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS... IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF IT WOULD TRANSLATE EAST ALONG
THE THICKNESS CONTOURS AND MISS US TO THE NORTH. THERE ARE SOME
HINTS IN THE CAM SOLUTIONS THAT A SECOND COMPLEX COULD DEVELOP
FARTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA... BUT IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR IT
WOULD LIKELY TRANSLATE MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MISS US TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. A THIRD POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WOULD ACTUALLY BE
SOONER... DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER OUR NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST CWFA... IF ANYTHING MANAGES TO DEVELOP IN THE CU FIELD
CURRENTLY IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. A COUPLE OF HOPWRF MEMBERS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT IS
POSSIBLE... BUT THE OTHER MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE HRRR KEEP ANY OF
THAT NORTH OF THE AREA. SO... OVERALL THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT... BUT IT IS BY NO MEANS A SLAM DUNK. WILL ALLOW POPS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH SOME DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS... WITH THAT AREA LOOKING TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE
SOMETHING. ANYTHING THAT/S OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WOULD SHIFT
EAST IN THE MORNING... SO TRANSLATED SOME CHANCE POPS EASTWARD. WE
WOULD THEN NEED TO LOOK TOWARD DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT... WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE. THAT
TIMING IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
AREA... AND WOULD MAINLY POINT TOWARD AREAS EAST OF I-35 HAVING A
CHANCE OF SEEING SOMETHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO... PUT THE
HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY... THEY WOULD
CERTAINLY HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES AOA
2500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR AOA 35 KT... SO IT CERTAINLY BEARS
WATCHING AND WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN SHOULD THE FRONTAL TIMING
WIND UP SLOWER. WE WILL MAKE A RUN AT 90 ON SUNDAY DEPENDING UPON
HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE SEE OVER THE AREA... WHICH COULD BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE DEPENDING ON ANY ISSUES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
AND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. THE FAIRLY EARLY FROPA
DOESN/T APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
POTENTIAL... WITH MIXING ACTUALLY LOOKING TO INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS NEAR 90.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. GOOD MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD
ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE DRYING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
WITH A WAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO ND/MN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A BIT MID DECK OF STRATUS OR STRATO-CU MIGHT ACT
TO SUPPRESS SBCAPE...BUT THERE SHOULD BE DECENT RECOVERY IN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND SHOULD INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...STORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD POSE A HAIL THREAT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE SPC SLIGHT RISK SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
30-50% ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE IDEA OF AT
LEAST SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE WITH THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE AS THE
TRIGGER. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CYCLONICALLY CURVED LONG WAVE PATTERN LINGERS THROUGHOUT AT LEAST
MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE COOL EARLY START
TO THIS JULY...WHICH SITS BETWEEN 4 AND 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST FEW DAYS IN CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. HEIGHTS
BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THE FLOW STILL REMAINS W-NW AND THE
THERMAL RIDGE OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND HIGH PLAINS WILL
STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE EAST. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE CFS...05.12Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR CORRESPONDING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH INDICATES
A NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE...BUT OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS LOCALLY. IT DOES MEAN IF WE DONT REACH 90
TOMORROW...IT MAY BE SOME TIME BEFORE WE GET CLOSE TO THAT AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
STILL APPEARS THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT MOST FORECAST SITES. HOWEVER... WITH WINDS A BIT
LIGHTER TONIGHT SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CEILINGS. THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA... SO WILL PRIMARILY
MENTION IT THERE. OTHERWISE... THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ISSUES WILL
BE TIED TO PCPN CHANCES... AND THOSE STILL APPEAR TO MAINLY BE A
CONCERN TO OUR NORTH AND PERHAPS OUR SOUTHWEST. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ONCE AGAIN... BUT THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE WOULD SUGGEST ANY NORTHERN ACTIVITY
WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AND ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH IN
THE DAKOTAS WILL DIVE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MISS US TO THE
SOUTH. THE GFS DOES BRING SOME MCS-LIKE PCPN INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT... BUT THE NAM AND ECMWF KEEP THINGS TO THE NORTH. IN
ADDITION... THE MAJORITY OF CAM GUIDANCE FAILS TO BRING MUCH OF
ANYTHING INTO THE AREA... CERTAINLY NOT A SUFFICIENT SIGNAL TO
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.
KMSP...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE WHETHER WE SEE AN CONVECTION
WORK INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT... AND WHETHER WE SEE ANY MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND/OR LOWER CEILINGS EVEN IF CONVECTION DOESN/T MAKE
IT INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS LOW... AND
GIVEN THE REASONS CITED ABOVE... DON/T THINK ANYTHING WILL GET
INTO THE AREA AT THIS POINT AND TIME. HOWEVER... WE COULD STILL
HAVE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AROUND LATE TONIGHT FOR AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES... SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF THAT AFTER 08Z. THERE IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SUNDAY WITH THE
FROPA... BUT TIMING OF IT CURRENTLY IMPLIES THAT ANYTHING WHICH
DEVELOPS MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL IT IS THROUGH THE AREA... SO LEFT
OUT ANY MENTION FOR NOW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
MONDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
103 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
UPDATED TO INCREASE WINDS. BUFR SOUNDS SHOW WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC
TO BE IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE AND CURRENT OBS SHOWING THESE WINDS
ARE MIXING DOWN. NO CHANGES TO TSTSM CHANCES. WILL SEE SOME ISO
STORMS IN THE FAR NORTH THIS MORNING. AM NOT SO CONFIDENT ABOUT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS CAP.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESS/TROUGH... FROM CTRL CANADA
TO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS... CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD WARM ADVECTION
REGIME OVER THE CWA. LATEST RUC13 85H ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE
TRANS AXIS ALIGNED FROM ERN SODAK INTO NWRN PART OF CWA. AN
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN/TRW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR RAINY RIVER/BORDERLAND
VICINITY. THIS SECOND AREA IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SO SOME 50DBZ CORES HAVE PUNCHED
ABOVE 30K WITH STRONG/SVR STORMS POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CWA AS MSTR
TRANSPORT MAXIMUM SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE INTL BORDER. ELSEWHERE
LIMITED ACTIVITY WITH WARM AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
TODAY...INITIAL MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMA AT 85H IS FCST TO SHIFT ACROSS
ARROWHEAD EARLY MORNING AS ASSOCIATED MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES
EAST. THIS 85H MSTR TRANS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO A TWIN PORTS TO
CASS LAKE AXIS BY 18Z. AS THIS IS OCCURRING DEEP LAYER WAA WILL
BEGIN TO INHIBIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER SWRN CWA. CONFIDENCE
LOWER TO THE EAST AS UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER CONVECTION
CAN REDEVELOP FROM EARLIER OUTFLOW BDRIES. WILL TREND DOWN POPS
EXCEPT NORTH AND EASTERN CWA WHERE MID LVL CAP WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE.
VERY WARM HUMID DAY AHEAD AND USED HIGHER VALUES OF GEMREGBC FOR
MAX TEMPS TODAY. DESPITE EARLY MORNING ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR EXPECT THAT ONCE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT WILL WARM UP THE LAKEFRONT.
TONIGHT...GENERAL IDEA IS THAT AN MCS/MCC WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OVER NODAK AND TRACK
INTO CWA LATE TONIGHT. HI RES MDLS HAVE BEEN HIT OR MISS WITH
RESOLVING ACTIVITY IN THIS PATTERN. USING GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WILL PUT DEVELOPMENT NEAR NODAK/NW MN BORDER AROUND
06Z...AND TRACKING ACROSS NRN/CTRL CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAYSHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SIGNALS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES REGARDING
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SYSTEM. WOULD EXPECT INCREASING THREAT OF
STRONG/SVR STORMS WITH POSSIBLE WX WATCH REQUIRED FOR SOME PARTS
OF CWA.
TOMORROW...SFC LOW IN WRN ONTARIO WILL SWING A WINDSHIFT/TROF
ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS ERN CWA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN. BEHIND WINDSHIFT SHOULD SEE SIG WARMING AS FCST 925
TEMPS REACH 23C TO 25C. THIS GIVES MAX TEMPS IN MID 80S NEAR TWIN
PORTS. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS I35 CORRIDOR TOWARDS ITASCA
COUNTY. FCST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME
ORGANIZATION WITH THREAT OF A FEW STRONG OR SVR STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE SFC COLD FRONT EXITS THE FA SUNDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING BEHIND FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR THE
EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN DRY OVERNIGHT. NW
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A PARADE OF
EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE RAIN FREE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS...ALTHOUGH
IT WEAKENS IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE POPS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF FORCING TO
INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE PRECLUDES
ANYTHING MORE THAN HIGH CHANCE POPS. ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER TROF
CROSSES NORTHERN MN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE TUESDAY
WHEN BEST FORCING ARRIVES. LOWER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE
TROF...BUT CAA WORTHY OF THE MENTION. INSTABILITY IS MISSING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILD
OVER THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR IFR/MVFR CONDTIONS
AT BRD DUE TO LOW STRATUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THESE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTIUNE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTROMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS AFTER
06Z. THIS AREA WILL SPREAD INTO THE OTHER TAF SITES AND MAY CAUSE
IFR/MVFR CONSTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 82 65 85 60 / 30 60 60 10
INL 86 66 77 57 / 40 60 60 10
BRD 86 69 84 63 / 20 50 50 10
HYR 81 68 86 61 / 20 50 70 10
ASX 84 65 84 59 / 20 50 60 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLC
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...STEWART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
944 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
UPDATED TO INCREASE WINDS. BUFR SOUNDS SHOW WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC
TO BE IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE AND CURRENT OBS SHOWING THESE WINDS
ARE MIXING DOWN. NO CHANGES TO TSTSM CHANCES. WILL SEE SOME ISO
STORMS IN THE FAR NORTH THIS MORNING. AM NOT SO CONFIDENT ABOUT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS CAP.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESS/TROUGH... FROM CTRL CANADA
TO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS... CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD WARM ADVECTION
REGIME OVER THE CWA. LATEST RUC13 85H ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE
TRANS AXIS ALIGNED FROM ERN SODAK INTO NWRN PART OF CWA. AN
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN/TRW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR RAINY RIVER/BORDERLAND
VICINITY. THIS SECOND AREA IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SO SOME 50DBZ CORES HAVE PUNCHED
ABOVE 30K WITH STRONG/SVR STORMS POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CWA AS MSTR
TRANSPORT MAXIMUM SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE INTL BORDER. ELSEWHERE
LIMITED ACTIVITY WITH WARM AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
TODAY...INITIAL MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMA AT 85H IS FCST TO SHIFT ACROSS
ARROWHEAD EARLY MORNING AS ASSOCIATED MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES
EAST. THIS 85H MSTR TRANS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO A TWIN PORTS TO
CASS LAKE AXIS BY 18Z. AS THIS IS OCCURRING DEEP LAYER WAA WILL
BEGIN TO INHIBIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER SWRN CWA. CONFIDENCE
LOWER TO THE EAST AS UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER CONVECTION
CAN REDEVELOP FROM EARLIER OUTFLOW BDRIES. WILL TREND DOWN POPS
EXCEPT NORTH AND EASTERN CWA WHERE MID LVL CAP WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE.
VERY WARM HUMID DAY AHEAD AND USED HIGHER VALUES OF GEMREGBC FOR
MAX TEMPS TODAY. DESPITE EARLY MORNING ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR EXPECT THAT ONCE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT WILL WARM UP THE LAKEFRONT.
TONIGHT...GENERAL IDEA IS THAT AN MCS/MCC WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OVER NODAK AND TRACK
INTO CWA LATE TONIGHT. HI RES MDLS HAVE BEEN HIT OR MISS WITH
RESOLVING ACTIVITY IN THIS PATTERN. USING GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WILL PUT DEVELOPMENT NEAR NODAK/NW MN BORDER AROUND
06Z...AND TRACKING ACROSS NRN/CTRL CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAYSHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SIGNALS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES REGARDING
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SYSTEM. WOULD EXPECT INCREASING THREAT OF
STRONG/SVR STORMS WITH POSSIBLE WX WATCH REQUIRED FOR SOME PARTS
OF CWA.
TOMORROW...SFC LOW IN WRN ONTARIO WILL SWING A WINDSHIFT/TROF
ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS ERN CWA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN. BEHIND WINDSHIFT SHOULD SEE SIG WARMING AS FCST 925
TEMPS REACH 23C TO 25C. THIS GIVES MAX TEMPS IN MID 80S NEAR TWIN
PORTS. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS I35 CORRIDOR TOWARDS ITASCA
COUNTY. FCST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME
ORGANIZATION WITH THREAT OF A FEW STRONG OR SVR STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE SFC COLD FRONT EXITS THE FA SUNDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING BEHIND FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR THE
EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN DRY OVERNIGHT. NW
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A PARADE OF
EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE RAIN FREE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS...ALTHOUGH
IT WEAKENS IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE POPS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF FORCING TO
INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE PRECLUDES
ANYTHING MORE THAN HIGH CHANCE POPS. ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER TROF
CROSSES NORTHERN MN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE TUESDAY
WHEN BEST FORCING ARRIVES. LOWER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE
TROF...BUT CAA WORTHY OF THE MENTION. INSTABILITY IS MISSING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILD
OVER THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 02Z.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE AND SPEED OF THESE
STORMS...HAVE OPTED TO USE VCTS. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MID MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 82 65 85 60 / 30 60 60 10
INL 86 66 77 57 / 40 60 60 10
BRD 86 69 84 63 / 20 50 50 10
HYR 81 68 86 61 / 20 50 70 10
ASX 84 65 84 59 / 20 50 60 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLC
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
633 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESS/TROUGH... FROM CTRL CANADA
TO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS... CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD WARM ADVECTION
REGIME OVER THE CWA. LATEST RUC13 85H ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE
TRANS AXIS ALIGNED FROM ERN SODAK INTO NWRN PART OF CWA. AN
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN/TRW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR RAINY RIVER/BORDERLAND
VICINITY. THIS SECOND AREA IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SO SOME 50DBZ CORES HAVE PUNCHED
ABOVE 30K WITH STRONG/SVR STORMS POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CWA AS MSTR
TRANSPORT MAXIMUM SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE INTL BORDER. ELSEWHERE
LIMITED ACTIVITY WITH WARM AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
TODAY...INITIAL MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMA AT 85H IS FCST TO SHIFT ACROSS
ARROWHEAD EARLY MORNING AS ASSOCIATED MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES
EAST. THIS 85H MSTR TRANS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO A TWIN PORTS TO
CASS LAKE AXIS BY 18Z. AS THIS IS OCCURRING DEEP LAYER WAA WILL
BEGIN TO INHIBIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER SWRN CWA. CONFIDENCE
LOWER TO THE EAST AS UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER CONVECTION
CAN REDEVELOP FROM EARLIER OUTFLOW BDRIES. WILL TREND DOWN POPS
EXCEPT NORTH AND EASTERN CWA WHERE MID LVL CAP WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE.
VERY WARM HUMID DAY AHEAD AND USED HIGHER VALUES OF GEMREGBC FOR
MAX TEMPS TODAY. DESPITE EARLY MORNING ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR EXPECT THAT ONCE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT WILL WARM UP THE LAKEFRONT.
TONIGHT...GENERAL IDEA IS THAT AN MCS/MCC WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OVER NODAK AND TRACK
INTO CWA LATE TONIGHT. HI RES MDLS HAVE BEEN HIT OR MISS WITH
RESOLVING ACTIVITY IN THIS PATTERN. USING GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WILL PUT DEVELOPMENT NEAR NODAK/NW MN BORDER AROUND
06Z...AND TRACKING ACROSS NRN/CTRL CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAYSHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SIGNALS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES REGARDING
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SYSTEM. WOULD EXPECT INCREASING THREAT OF
STRONG/SVR STORMS WITH POSSIBLE WX WATCH REQUIRED FOR SOME PARTS
OF CWA.
TOMORROW...SFC LOW IN WRN ONTARIO WILL SWING A WINDSHIFT/TROF
ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS ERN CWA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN. BEHIND WINDSHIFT SHOULD SEE SIG WARMING AS FCST 925
TEMPS REACH 23C TO 25C. THIS GIVES MAX TEMPS IN MID 80S NEAR TWIN
PORTS. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS I35 CORRIDOR TOWARDS ITASCA
COUNTY. FCST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME
ORGANIZATION WITH THREAT OF A FEW STRONG OR SVR STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE SFC COLD FRONT EXITS THE FA SUNDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING BEHIND FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR THE
EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN DRY OVERNIGHT. NW
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A PARADE OF
EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE RAIN FREE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS...ALTHOUGH
IT WEAKENS IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE POPS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF FORCING TO
INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE PRECLUDES
ANYTHING MORE THAN HIGH CHANCE POPS. ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER TROF
CROSSES NORTHERN MN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE TUESDAY
WHEN BEST FORCING ARRIVES. LOWER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE
TROF...BUT CAA WORTHY OF THE MENTION. INSTABILITY IS MISSING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILD
OVER THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 02Z.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE AND SPEED OF THESE
STORMS...HAVE OPTED TO USE VCTS. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MID MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 82 65 85 60 / 30 60 60 10
INL 86 66 77 57 / 40 60 60 10
BRD 86 69 84 63 / 20 50 50 10
HYR 81 68 86 61 / 20 50 70 10
ASX 84 65 84 59 / 20 50 60 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
351 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESS/TROUGH... FROM CTRL CANADA
TO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS... CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD WARM ADVECTION
REGIME OVER THE CWA. LATEST RUC13 85H ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE
TRANS AXIS ALIGNED FROM ERN SODAK INTO NWRN PART OF CWA. AN
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN/TRW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR RAINY RIVER/BORDERLAND
VICINITY. THIS SECOND AREA IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SO SOME 50DBZ CORES HAVE PUNCHED
ABOVE 30K WITH STRONG/SVR STORMS POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CWA AS MSTR
TRANSPORT MAXIMUM SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE INTL BORDER. ELSEWHERE
LIMITED ACTIVITY WITH WARM AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
TODAY...INITIAL MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMA AT 85H IS FCST TO SHIFT ACROSS
ARROWHEAD EARLY MORNING AS ASSOCIATED MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES
EAST. THIS 85H MSTR TRANS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO A TWIN PORTS TO
CASS LAKE AXIS BY 18Z. AS THIS IS OCCURRING DEEP LAYER WAA WILL
BEGIN TO INHIBIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER SWRN CWA. CONFIDENCE
LOWER TO THE EAST AS UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER CONVECTION
CAN REDEVELOP FROM EARLIER OUTFLOW BDRIES. WILL TREND DOWN POPS
EXCEPT NORTH AND EASTERN CWA WHERE MID LVL CAP WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE.
VERY WARM HUMID DAY AHEAD AND USED HIGHER VALUES OF GEMREGBC FOR
MAX TEMPS TODAY. DESPITE EARLY MORNING ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR EXPECT THAT ONCE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT WILL WARM UP THE LAKEFRONT.
TONIGHT...GENERAL IDEA IS THAT AN MCS/MCC WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OVER NODAK AND TRACK
INTO CWA LATE TONIGHT. HI RES MDLS HAVE BEEN HIT OR MISS WITH
RESOLVING ACTIVITY IN THIS PATTERN. USING GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WILL PUT DEVELOPMENT NEAR NODAK/NW MN BORDER AROUND
06Z...AND TRACKING ACROSS NRN/CTRL CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAYSHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SIGNALS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES REGARDING
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SYSTEM. WOULD EXPECT INCREASING THREAT OF
STRONG/SVR STORMS WITH POSSIBLE WX WATCH REQUIRED FOR SOME PARTS
OF CWA.
TOMORROW...SFC LOW IN WRN ONTARIO WILL SWING A WINDSHIFT/TROF
ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS ERN CWA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN. BEHIND WINDSHIFT SHOULD SEE SIG WARMING AS FCST 925
TEMPS REACH 23C TO 25C. THIS GIVES MAX TEMPS IN MID 80S NEAR TWIN
PORTS. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS I35 CORRIDOR TOWARDS ITASCA
COUNTY. FCST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME
ORGANIZATION WITH THREAT OF A FEW STRONG OR SVR STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE SFC COLD FRONT EXITS THE FA SUNDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING BEHIND FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR THE
EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN DRY OVERNIGHT. NW
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A PARADE OF
EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE RAIN FREE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS...ALTHOUGH
IT WEAKENS IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE POPS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF FORCING TO
INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE PRECLUDES
ANYTHING MORE THAN HIGH CHANCE POPS. ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER TROF
CROSSES NORTHERN MN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE TUESDAY
WHEN BEST FORCING ARRIVES. LOWER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE
TROF...BUT CAA WORTHY OF THE MENTION. INSTABILITY IS MISSING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILD
OVER THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
VFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BRING
LOWERING VSBYS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT VCSH IN TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CONVECTION. HAVE LLWS AT ALL SITES AS LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS 2 KFT
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 35-40 KT THROUGH SAT MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 82 65 85 60 / 30 60 60 10
INL 86 66 77 57 / 40 60 60 10
BRD 86 69 84 63 / 20 50 50 10
HYR 81 68 86 61 / 20 50 70 10
ASX 84 65 84 59 / 20 50 60 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GRANING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
920 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 917 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
Watching the convection to our north along the approaching cold
front this evening. Model guidance in general agreement that the
front will reach Quincy area between 06Z and 09Z and settle across
the St. Louis area between 12Z and 15Z. Have better confidence
that broken line of thunderstorms will reach northern parts of the
CWA and have increased POPs to match with neighboring offices.
Oherwise, chance/scattered POPs should cover the situation further
south toward St. Louis.
CVKING
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
Still expect thunderstorms to redevelop along the cold front
where MLCAPES are 5000+ J/kg across Iowa. These storms should move
southeast into the northern half of the CWA during the late
evening and overnight hours as both the NAM/GFS are in good
agreement that shortwave trough currently over the upper Midwest
will move in sync with the cold front across the CWA tonight.
Latest runs of HRRR are showing that storms will dissipate before
reaching the CWA, but the amount of forcing and instability
warrant keeping at least the chance pops already going in the
forecast. The simulated reflectivity of the explicit runs of the
WRF show a line of storms moving southward across the entire CWA
between 02-08Z. Also can`t rule out a few severe thunderstorms
later this evening given the amount of instability and deep layer
shear forecast to be around 30kts.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
(Monday and Tuesday)
Main concern will be the potential for a few severe thunderstorms on
Monday afternoon and night.
GFS and NAM both show that upper flow will be west northwesterly on
Monday with the front becoming stalled by midday across the central
part of the CWA. Temperatures in the lower to middle 90s and
dewpoints in the 70s will cause the atmosphere to become very
unstable under 7+C/km mid level lapse rates. Scattered
thunderstorms may develop along the front as the CINH erodes during
the day. Couldn`t rule out that any storms that develop Monday
afternoon would be severe because of the amount of the instability.
Thunderstorms will be more likely on Monday night when a shortwave
trough moves southeast through the upper flow. A complex of
thunderstorms will likely move southeast through the area along the
front. This complex may be severe given deep layer sheer 40+ kts
and produce locally heavy rainfall rates given precipitable waters
over 2 inches. Damaging winds appear to be the primary
threat...though large hail and isolated tornadoes are also
possible.
By Tuesday the cold front will still be over the south part of the
CWA during the early afternoon hours. There may still be some
chance for a few severe thunderstorms along the front as they
initiate before the it moves south of the CWA by 00Z.
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
GFS and ECMWF still show that the cold front will extend from the
Mid South back into the central Plains Wednesday and Thursday
leaving us dry. 850mb temps are progged to be in the 12-16C range
with southeasterly winds from the retreating surface high which will
bring us below normal temperatures. The front will begin to move
north as a warm front Friday into Saturday which will increase
temperatures and thunderstorm chances. The GFS and ECMWF both show
a cold front dropping southeastward in northwest flow by next
Sunday, so will keep the chance of rain going into the latter half
of next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
Southwest winds to persist this evening with vfr conditions. Then
as cold front approaches region will see showers and thunderstorms
develop. Timing and coverage still hard to pin down, so kept vcnty
shower mention after 06z-09z Monday timeframe, then diminish by
daybreak on Monday. As front moves through winds to veer to the
west. Front to stall out along I-70 corridor by midday on Monday.
Another round of storms likely late Monday afternoon and evening,
so added mention of vcnty thunderstorms.
Specifics for KSTL:
Southwest winds to persist this evening with vfr conditions. Then
as cold front approaches region will see showers and thunderstorms
develop. Timing and coverage still hard to pin down, so kept vcnty
shower mention after 09z Monday, then diminish by 13z Monday. As
front moves through winds to veer to the west. Front to stall out
along I-70 corridor by midday on Monday. Another round of storms
likely late Monday afternoon and evening, so added mention of
vcnty thunderstorms after 23z Monday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
711 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
...Updated for Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
Morning rain and scattered to broken cumulus clouds this afternoon
has helped keep temperatures at bay somewhat this afternoon as
temperatures are ranging from the mid 80s to around 90. Heat index
values are ranging from the upper 80s to near 100 degrees across
northwest MO. These values will still rise a degree or two this
afternoon before falling back this evening.
An upper level shortwave this evening will drop down across the
western Plains of Ontario into the northern Great Lakes. This will
help force a weak cold front into the area tonight. With the forcing
being weak and a cap in place there still remains some doubt as to
whether or not convection will develop. Models are split on this
front with the GFS and NAM showing the cap weakening enough for
widely scattered thunderstorms to develop. Meanwhile most of the
short-range hi-res model keep conditions dry. As such have continue
to advertise slight chance to low chance pops after midnight across
the northern and central portion of the CWA. If convection does
develop damaging winds and large hail will be possible. Otherwise,
lows across the area tonight should range from the upper 60s to mid
70s.
Monday, the cold front will wash out across the southern CWA and
winds will turn back to southwest by tomorrow afternoon helping
temperatures to warm back into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Heat index
values will be in the Late Monday afternoon/evening a stronger upper
level trough will dig from the northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest forcing a stronger cold front into the area. With dewpoints
in the low 70s and instability on the order of 3000-4000 J/Kg of
CAPE...thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds will be possible tomorrow night. A second round of storms or
uptick in evening storms will occur late tomorrow night as a 40-50kt
southwesterly LLJ develops, fueling storms along the boundary which
will be draped somewhere near the I-70 corridor. Severe potential
will continue into tomorrow night with damaging winds and large hail
continuing to be the main threats. There will also be the potential
for flooding/flash flooding with PWAT values between 1.75"-2.25". If
storms train/redevelop along the front Monday night flooding will
most likely occur especially given recent wet conditions.
Consequently, a flood watch was considered however, uncertainty of
the location of heaviest rainfall has precluded it at this time.
Showers and thunderstorms may linger into Tuesday morning before
high pressure build in for the afternoon hours and much more
pleasant conditions with highs in the low to mid 80s and
respectively lower humidity values. Better yet, the surface ridge
will move directly over the forecast area on Tuesday night allowing
lows to drop into the low to mid 60s making for comfortable sleeping
weather.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
The medium range period will be marked by a general upper trough
over the eastern U.S. with an initially flat western upper ridge
which is progged to amplify by next weekend. Good continuity in the
models leads to a moderate confidence in the forecast through
Friday. However, as the global models diverge on the strength of the
eastern U.S. trough and placement of faster flow there is a rather
broad range in forecast outcomes.
Mid-week surface high pressure over the Central Plains should
provide below average temperatures and relatively low humidity
levels Wednesday. A gradual increase in temperatures and humidity
will ensue as the high pressure moves off to the east and return
flow allows gulf moisture to return. Should see reasonably high
PoPs Thursday night into Friday as increasing isentropic ascent
combines with a shortwave trough dropping southeast from the SD/NE
area to generate elevated convection ahead of a retreating warm
front.
Typical heat and humidity should overspread the region on Friday as
the warm front lifts northeast through the CWA. The weekend outlook
is not so certain but will likely see a continuation of the heat and
humidity, just unsure how much heat. The ECMWF is faster in building
the upper ridge over the Rockies with several convective feedback
signals and/or embedded shortwaves moving through the Central Plains
and Mid MO Valley. The GFS is a bit slower in this process. +
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 700 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
For the 00Z TAFS...A weak boundary and upper level shortwave trough
may result in a few thunderstorms late...after 06Z tonight. Like last
evening a strong cap in place over the region that may erode as
boundary/trough slowly move towards northern Missouri from the north.
The HRRR latest run shows development over extreme southeast Nebraska
and north central Kansas at 00Z but right now current radars show only
fine lines/wind shift moving through...dry. Confidence is low that
the cap will erode enough and that storms will be able to organize
enough late tonight to warrant even the VCTS...but will monitor.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Adolphson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
630 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
Still expect thunderstorms to redevelop along the cold front
where MLCAPES are 5000+ J/kg across Iowa. These storms should move
southeast into the northern half of the CWA during the late
evening and overnight hours as both the NAM/GFS are in good
agreement that shortwave trough currently over the upper Midwest
will move in sync with the cold front across the CWA tonight.
Latest runs of HRRR are showing that storms will dissipate before
reaching the CWA, but the amount of forcing and instability
warrant keeping at least the chance pops already going in the
forecast. The simulated reflectivity of the explicit runs of the
WRF show a line of storms moving southward across the entire CWA
between 02-08Z. Also can`t rule out a few severe thunderstorms
later this evening given the amount of instability and deep layer
shear forecast to be around 30kts.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
(Monday and Tuesday)
Main concern will be the potential for a few severe thunderstorms on
Monday afternoon and night.
GFS and NAM both show that upper flow will be west northwesterly on
Monday with the front becoming stalled by midday across the central
part of the CWA. Temperatures in the lower to middle 90s and
dewpoints in the 70s will cause the atmosphere to become very
unstable under 7+C/km mid level lapse rates. Scattered
thunderstorms may develop along the front as the CINH erodes during
the day. Couldn`t rule out that any storms that develop Monday
afternoon would be severe because of the amount of the instability.
Thunderstorms will be more likely on Monday night when a shortwave
trough moves southeast through the upper flow. A complex of
thunderstorms will likely move southeast through the area along the
front. This complex may be severe given deep layer sheer 40+ kts
and produce locally heavy rainfall rates given precipitable waters
over 2 inches. Damaging winds appear to be the primary
threat...though large hail and isolated tornadoes are also
possible.
By Tuesday the cold front will still be over the south part of the
CWA during the early afternoon hours. There may still be some
chance for a few severe thunderstorms along the front as they
initiate before the it moves south of the CWA by 00Z.
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
GFS and ECMWF still show that the cold front will extend from the
Mid South back into the central Plains Wednesday and Thursday
leaving us dry. 850mb temps are progged to be in the 12-16C range
with southeasterly winds from the retreating surface high which will
bring us below normal temperatures. The front will begin to move
north as a warm front Friday into Saturday which will increase
temperatures and thunderstorm chances. The GFS and ECMWF both show
a cold front dropping southeastward in northwest flow by next
Sunday, so will keep the chance of rain going into the latter half
of next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
Southwest winds to persist this evening with vfr conditions. Then
as cold front approaches region will see showers and thunderstorms
develop. Timing and coverage still hard to pin down, so kept vcnty
shower mention after 06z-09z Monday timeframe, then diminish by
daybreak on Monday. As front moves through winds to veer to the
west. Front to stall out along I-70 corridor by midday on Monday.
Another round of storms likely late Monday afternoon and evening,
so added mention of vcnty thunderstorms.
Specifics for KSTL:
Southwest winds to persist this evening with vfr conditions. Then
as cold front approaches region will see showers and thunderstorms
develop. Timing and coverage still hard to pin down, so kept vcnty
shower mention after 09z Monday, then diminish by 13z Monday. As
front moves through winds to veer to the west. Front to stall out
along I-70 corridor by midday on Monday. Another round of storms
likely late Monday afternoon and evening, so added mention of
vcnty thunderstorms after 23z Monday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
(Tonight)
Complex of thunderstorms that persisted into early afternoon have
finally began to diminish as they moved into limited instability to
the east and little forcing to the south. This evening, the RAP and
localWRF shows a rapid increase of low level moisture convergence
and MUCAPE across the northern CWA which supports the going PoPS
that we already have going in the forecast. Going temps fit in well
with new agreeable MOS temps. Southern and eastern CWA are still in
under the influence of a retreating ridge.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms going over the the area on
Sunday, with the best chances going during the morning hours over
the northeastern half of the CWA. This is where the strongest low
level moisture convergence coincides with the weak ascent that a
shortwave trough will provide as it passes through the area. This
is supported by various simulated reflectivity of the convective
allowing WRFs. The latest run of the GFS appears too deep with the
trough because of convective feedback. Thunderstorms are also
expected to develop over Iowa and northern Illinois later in the day
and early evening in a very unstable airmass along a southeastward
moving cold front. Will continue the chance of shower and
thunderstorms over the area as these storms will be gradually
diminishing in intensity through the night as they move into the
CWA.
By Monday and Tuesday this front will have become nearly stationary
over the area under west northwesterly flow. Will keep high chance
or low likely chances given the high CAPEs and the weak vort
maxes moving the upper flow.
It still looks like highs will reach the mid 90s over the central
part of the CWA including the St. Louis metro area on Monday
afternoon. Combine this with expected dewpoints in the lower 70s
and heat index readings will top out around 100.
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Both the GFS and ECMWF show the cold front pushing into the Mid
South by Wednesday as the mean trough moves to the east of the
area. However differences between the two models begin to show up
by Friday as the ECMWF is much more aggressive in moving a deeper
trough across the northern CONUS than the GFS. Consequently, the
ECMWF brings a cold front across the area on Saturday while the GFS
instead is building a ridge across the area. The ECMWF does not
appear to have good continuity with this feature, so will not go
along with this solution. Instead, will keep with a chance of
thunderstorms over the southern CWA on Wednesday which will be the
area in closest proximity to the front. Will also keep going chance
of thunderstorms over the area on Friday as both models continue to
indicate that the front will move through the CWA as a warm front.
850mb temperatures of +15C support below normal temperatures in the
mid 80s for Wednesday and Thursday before temperatures climb back
closer to normal by next Saturday.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
Ongoing convection over northern Missouri/southern Iowa has been
slow in its progression due to increasingly stable air to the
south and east of the showers/thunderstorms. KUIN is the most
likely candidate to experience precipitation this afternoon as the
activity moves east, however, the convection should
continue to gradually weaken. MVFR flight conditions may occur in
areas of rainfall, though otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
to continue. An area of thunderstorm activity currently over mid
Missouri may impact KCOU, however, uncertainty in its progression
has warranted only a VCTS mention this afternoon. Expect
precipitation today to remain well north/west of metro TAF sites.
Another round of precipitation could impact area TAF sites
overnight tonight and early tomorrow morning, with the GFS
indicating more widespread activity, with showers and
thunderstorms expanding from northwest Missouri into the metro
area by daybreak. The NAM keeps precipitation focused more over
northern MO/southern IA as well as over western MO. Given the
uncertainties in the evolution of precipitation overnight, and
particualrly concerning any diurnal development on Sunday, have
gone with dry TAFs beyond this afternoon. Otherwise, high clouds
will continue to overspread the area today and tonight, with winds
maintaining a southerly to southwesterly direction, increasing to
10-15KT Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
Have currently maintained dry, VFR conditions for the duration of
the forecast. Precipitation today will remain well north and
west of the terminal, and while some models indicate
showers/thunderstorms developing and impacting the terminal around
daybreak Sunday, model disagreement and uncertainty has precluded
mention in the TAF at this time. There will also be the potential
for showers/thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon, but activity may
hinge on the evolution of any precipitation overnight, along with
associated remnant boundaries. High clouds will continue to stream
over the terminal, with diurnal cumulus developing once again on
Sunday. Winds will remain generally out of the south to southwest
for the duration, and should increase to around 10-13KT Sunday.
JP
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
254 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight into Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
Currently, large expanse of high level clouds have enveloped much
of the outlook area. This is blow off from a convective complex
to our north. Over the past few hours, this area of showers and
storms has rapidly decayed, with just a few lingering showers near
northern portions of Miller/Maries counties. This activity will
dissipate over the next hour or so, with additional development
expected later. Temperatures have been affected, somewhat, by the
high cloud coverage, with most locations in the upper 70s to lower
80s. The only exception is across extreme southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri where mid/upper 80s are a bit more common.
Anticipate that scattered TSRA will redevelop to the northwest of
the CWA later today in line with the HRRR and NAM12...however
models handling how this will propagate inconsistently. Given
orientation of the moisture transport/low level Theta E would
anticipate activity to build soutwestward into the night...then
take on an easterly component toward morning as the relatively
weak low level jet veers east.
Questions for convection then on Sunday more of a question.
Should be plenty of instability and even a bit of support from a
dampening short wave. However rain may be hard to come by unless
the overnight convection is able to generate an outflow boundary.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
Warming trend will continue into Monday with areas over the west
witnessing the highest heat indices of the season before heights
start to fall and a wavy weak front arrives on Tuesday. Models have
been consistent with convective development along the front Tuesday
into early Wednesday as the front slowly descends into Arkansas.
Questions continue as to how far south the front makes it into
Arkansas and scattered storms may then continue along the Arkansas
border through the end of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
VFR conditions will persist for at least the next 24 hours across
the region. Thunderstorm complex entering central Missouri will
stay north of the area this afternoon. Will be monitoring
thunderstorm development and organization later this afternoon in
northeastern Kansas. While instability is high, shear is on the
low side, as a result there will be the potential for these storms
to move southward tonight. Have gone ahead and included a PROB30
group at JLN in the event this activity moves this far to the
east. The better bet is for this activity to remain mostly in
Kansas. Future TAF updates will further refine the risk.
Otherwise, southerly winds and passing mid/high level clouds will
be common.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gagan/Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Gagan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1059 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AT 19Z. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CU DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO FAR BUT NOTABLY DRIER AIR
BEHIND IT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S. CONVERGENCE RATHER
WEAK AS FRONT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING
ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER THIS EVENING AND WASHING OUT
OVERNIGHT. HAVE CARRIED SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE
AREA FOR TONIGHT WHERE RAP MODEL SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL BUT ONLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED IT STORMS DO DEVELOP.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST HELPING TO PUSH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN EXISTS FOR THE SOUTHERN BORDER AREA MONDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON
ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS STORMS TAKE ON A WEST-EAST
ORIENTATION JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS WARM AND DRY FOR TUESDAY AND MOST OF
WEDNESDAY WITH LESS HUMIDITY AROUND AS FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
MOISTURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. SERIES OF ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DURING THE PERIOD INDICATED BY MODELS AS RIDGE
BUILDS AGAIN IN THE WEST WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STORMS FOR
THE AREA PRIMARILY DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS MID SUMMER PATTERN
TAKES SHAPE.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z. DRY AIR MOVING IN LOOKS
LIKE IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT FOG MONDAY MORNING...SO DID NOT
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS DESPITE LIGHT WINDS. THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER WITH THE
SLOW MOVING/STALLED FRONT...BUT DID NOT THINK IT WOULD AFFECT
LINCOLN.
MID CLOUDS FL150 ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY MORNING...AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND MID LEVEL
FORCING ALONG WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. SCT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. DO MENTION TSRA AT ALL THREE SITES LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS AND
GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
636 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AT 19Z. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CU DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO FAR BUT NOTABLY DRIER AIR
BEHIND IT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S. CONVERGENCE RATHER
WEAK AS FRONT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING
ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER THIS EVENING AND WASHING OUT
OVERNIGHT. HAVE CARRIED SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE
AREA FOR TONIGHT WHERE RAP MODEL SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL BUT ONLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED IT STORMS DO DEVELOP.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST HELPING TO PUSH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN EXISTS FOR THE SOUTHERN BORDER AREA MONDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON
ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS STORMS TAKE ON A WEST-EAST
ORIENTATION JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS WARM AND DRY FOR TUESDAY AND MOST OF
WEDNESDAY WITH LESS HUMIDITY AROUND AS FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
MOISTURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. SERIES OF ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DURING THE PERIOD INDICATED BY MODELS AS RIDGE
BUILDS AGAIN IN THE WEST WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STORMS FOR
THE AREA PRIMARILY DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS MID SUMMER PATTERN
TAKES SHAPE.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
CONSIDERATIONS FOR TONIGHT WOULD BE ANY STORMS NEAR THE COLD FRONT
AND FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/
APPEAR TO BE KEEPING ANY DEVELOPMENT AT BAY WITH THE WINDSHIFT
MOVING THROUGH KOMA/KLNK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE FRONT
SLOWS DOWN IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. CONSIDERED FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND LACK OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE LARGE ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE...HOWEVER WILL RE-
EVALUATE WITH THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. MONDAY AFTERNOON...A
SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH
SOUTH...MEANWHILE...A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH
AND STRENGTHEN. FOR NOW ONLY MENTIONED A PROB30 AT KOFK. WILL RE-
EVALUATE FOR KLNK/KOMA WHEN EVENING DATA IS IN.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
624 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEVADA WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO SWRN CANADA. A
SECONDARY HIGH WAS OVER NERN ALASKA WITH A SHARPER AMPLITUDE RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A TANDEM
OF DECENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WERE PRESENT FROM NORTHERN
ALBERTA INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA. DOWNSTREAM OF THESE SHORTWAVES...50+
METER HT FALLS WERE NOTED OVER NRN MN...SWRN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. ANOTHER AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS NOTED OVER THE
OZARKS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD PASSED THROUGH
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF NOONTIME AND WAS ORIENTED
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR FORT MORGAN COLORADO...TO MCCOOK TO SIOUX
CITY IA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT...RANGED FROM 86 AT VALENTINE
TO 95 AT IMPERIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT OVER NEBRASKA HAS PASSED THROUGH ALL OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT REMAIN IN THE
60S...WITH SB CAPE OF 2K J/KG OR HIGHER FROM ABOUT KOGA TO KBBW AND
AREAS TO THE SOUTH...LAPS SOUNDINGS AND SPC/S MESOANALYSIS PAGE
SUGGEST A SLIGHT CAP REMAINS IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
CAP AND A LACK OF FORCING TO HELP GET ANY ACTIVITY GOING DON/T
EXPECT ANY STORMS LOCALLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF THE FRONT CIN HAS
DIMINISHED SO COULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS. DON/T EXPECT
THE FRONT TO LIFT NORTH SO HAVE NOT RE-INTRODUCED ANY CHANCES TO THE
AREA THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT.
LATER TONIGHT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM...GFS AND TO A POINT
THE RAP SHOW A VERY WEAK PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE SAME AREA WILL SEE POOLING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S AND THERE IS SUGGESTION
OF A BIT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ROUGHLY IN THE
VICINITY OF A LINE FROM KBBW TO KEAR AND KHGI. CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH
ON ANY OF THIS CONVECTION OCCURRING...NOR HAVING IT OCCUR IN THE
FORECAST AREA BUT FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH SIGNALS TO AT LEAST WARRANT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THEN...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NORTH OF MONTANA WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND APPROACH NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA IN THE MORNING.
WITH THE RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT...WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD
1-2K J/KG OF SB CAPE IN THE MORNING AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASING WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING IN CAN/T DISCOUNT A FEW STORMS
GAINING STRENGTH TO BE A STRONGER STORM. AT THIS TIME DON/T FORESEE
ANY SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS AND THEN
FOCUSES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS WHERE THE FRONT
FROM TODAY WILL REMAIN. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT
THIS POINT...CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL HAVE INCREASED A BIT SO
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE. STILL NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOCALLY AS THE PRIMARY
CONVERGENCE AREA LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ORIENTED SOUTH OVER THE FRONT. OVER THESE
AREAS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGH ONCE AGAIN...AT 120 TO
140 PERCENT OF NORMAL. HIGH WATER CONTENT...ALONG WITH A WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED FRONT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT COULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL TRAINING STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN.
AGAIN...THINK THE HIGHER THREAT THOUGH WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THE MID RANGE ARE LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN MONDAY
NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO KANSAS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A THREAT FOR PCPN IN THE EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY EVENING...AS
DECENT MID LEVEL LIFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS AREA IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE FORECAST AREA PER THE GFS SOLN
COMPARED TO THE NAM SOLN AS THE SURFACE FRONT IS FURTHER NORTH
COMPARED TO THE NAM SOLN. THIS PROBABLY HAS TO DO WITH THE STRENGTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH THE NAM IS STRONGER WITH
COMPARED TO THE GFS SOLN. INHERITED FCST HAD CHANCE POPS LINGERING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. POPS WERE LOWERED MONDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THE FASTER NAM SOLN...AS WELL AS MID LEVEL LIFT SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AS FOR THE THREAT FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...THE
BEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE EAST AND SERN
CWA WHERE SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE STRONG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELEMENTS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE IN THE EAST AND
SERN CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AS
WELL...ELIMINATING THE THREAT FOR PCPN TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST WHICH WILL GIVE A
BOOST TO OVERNIGHT LOWS WEST OF NORTH PLATTE. ANY PCPN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS...WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY. RIDGING ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB AND WILL APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TSRAS WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS SE FROM THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS INVOF THE BLACK
HILLS WEDS AFTN. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ANY STORMS WHICH
INITIATE MAY PUSH INTO THE NWRN CWA WEDS AFTN/EVENING. WILL KEEP
POPS ISOLATED FOR NOW AS MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND NWRN CWA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS USUALLY ALLOWS
A PLETHORA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE.
TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...SO
WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH PLENTY OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...SO
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT THE THE THREAT FOR STORMS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...UNDERCUT THE
LATEST MEX GUIDANCE AS IT CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM COMPARED TO THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS...AS WELL AS THE ECMX EURO GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTN. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS MT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT THE FORECAST
FROM 11Z ONWARD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH STORMS INCREASING IN INTENSITY
ACROSS SRN NEB 20Z-24Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
315 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
TEMPERATURES.
CLOUDS HAVE ABOUT MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
A FEW THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE
AND WHAT HAPPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE NAM...THE RAP AND THE HRRR
PRODUCE A LITTLE QPF/THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. WITH THE SPRINKLES THAT FORMED EARLIER BELIEVE THAT A 20
PERCENT CHANCE COULD BE A GOOD IDEA IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. NOT
EXPECTING THERE TO BE MUCH BUT A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP.
A SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. EVEN WITH THE
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
WELL INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES DURING THE DAY. AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. HAVE KEPT THE SMALL POPS IN FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE MODELS HAVE
DIFFERENCES ON THIS AS WELL. MANY OF THE MODELS ARE DRY...BUT A FEW
SHOW SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
PATTERN: IT IS LOOKING DECIDEDLY MORE SUMMERLIKE. OVERALL THE MEAN
LONGWAVE FLOW WILL FEATURE A WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WITH
SEASONABLE CHANGES IN AMPLITUDE. ONE THING IS CLEAR...WE HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO A CONSIDERABLY DRIER PATTERN. THE PATTERN THAT
BROUGHT THE VERY WET JUNE IS NO LONGER WITH US...AND ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS FCST OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL USA THRU MID-MONTH THREATEN SOME
PERSISTENCE TO THIS DRYNESS.
THE ONLY DECENT PROSPECT FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS
MON NIGHT AND EVEN THEN NOT ALL AREAS WILL GET IT.
EXPECT IRRIGATION WILL BE NECESSARY VERY SOON.
ONE THING NOTED BY THE WPC /WX PREDICTION CTR AT NWSHQ/ IS TYPHOON
NEOGURI FCST TO RECURVE IN THE WRN PACIFIC. ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND ABSORPTION INTO THE WESTERLIES COULD RESULT IN A
PATTERN RE-ADJUSTMENT AROUND MID-MONTH.
ALOFT: THE SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL HIGH HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED AND
WILL BE OVER THE SW USA THRU MID-WEEK. STORMINESS OVER THE GULF OF
AK WILL FORCE A TEMPORARY AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE INTO WRN
CANADA. THIS WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND SEND A SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO
THE CNTRL/ERN USA THIS WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED TROF WILL SLIDE THRU MON
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY CYCLONIC NW FLOW TUE-WED. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
MOVE THRU THU AHEAD OF A TROF MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC. WHILE THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THIS TROF WILL ACTUALLY STAY N OF THE BORDER...
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO EXPAND ACROSS
THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...AM NOT BUYING IT. THE PAST 2 EC/GEM/GFS
CYCLES HAVE AMPLIFY THE PATTERN WITH THE ERN USA TROF BEING CARVED
OUT AGAIN. THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE CONTROL RUN SHOWS THIS VERY NICELY
AND THIS IDEA FITS THE PATTERN.
SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT IS ADVANCING THRU THE FCST AREA SUN
AFTERNOON WILL STALL OVER NRN KS MON...AWAITING A STRONGER SECOND
FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE THRU MON NIGHT. THIS SECOND PUSH WILL FORCE
THE COMPOSITE FRONT DEEPER INTO THE SRN PLAINS. COMFORTABLE HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN TUE-WED WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING THU AS THE HIGH
HEADS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW PRES WILL CROSS WRN CANADA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AND BEGIN DRAWING THE FRONT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT
THU. FRI IT HEATS BACK UP IN THE WARM SECTOR...THEN A COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI NIGHT OR SAT.
HAZARDS: AN ISOLATED PROBABLY NON-SVR TSTM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE MON NIGHT WITH LEGIT SVR
POTENTIAL. BEYOND THAT...ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS UNORGANIZED AND
IS LOW CONFIDENCE.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
UNCERTAINTY IS WAY ABOVE AVERAGE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. AM NOT
IMPRESSED WITH THE TSTM POTENTIAL ALONG THIS FRONT. WHILE DEWPOINTS
ARE IMPRESSIVE NOW...TOMORROW`S HEAT WILL MIX OUT THESE HIGH DWPTS
WITH NO REPLENISHMENT. 12Z SOUNDINGS AROUND THE REGION THIS AM SHOW
THERE ARE REALLY NO GOOD/DEEP BANDS OF MOISTURE. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE CAP.
09Z SREF DOES SUGGEST PORTION OF THE NARROW RIBBON OF 10-12C 850 MB
DWPTS ALONG THE FRONT WILL CIRCULATE ANTICYCLONICALLY BACK INTO THE
REGION LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WAITING TO INTERCEPT THE NEXT
FRONT.
BOTTOM LINE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY MOST OF THE TIME SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. THIS FCST WOULD BETTER BE VIEWED FROM THE STANDPOINT
THAT THERE IS AN 80% CHANCE THAT TSTMS WILL NOT FORM. "IF" AN
ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO MANAGES TO DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK /10-15 KTS/. THIS SUGGESTS AT BEST NICKEL SIZE HAIL. LCL
HEIGHTS WILL BE NEAR 10K FT WHICH WOULD THREATEN WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH.
MON NIGHT: A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND
AND THE LLJ IN ADVANCE. CONSIDERABLE CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD HAVE 2000-
2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. WE DO NEED TO
WATCH POTENTIAL FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT FOR SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...
BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OF A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...EMBEDDED BOWS AND LEWP`S WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
WE HAVE NOTED THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WX AND WE ARE IN AGREEMENT.
THIS FCSTR CONTS TO SEE TUE-THU COOLER THAN WHAT MEX MOS AND EVEN
THE DAYS 4-7 INITIALIZATION HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. THIS GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY RELUCTANT TO LOWER TEMPS. BASED ON ENSEMBLE TEMP ANOMALIES
...HAVE TRENDED THE FCST HIGHS CLOSER TO THE EC/GEM 2M TEMPS WHICH
HAVE HAD A SIZABLE COOLDOWN FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
TUE: CLEARING AS MON NIGHT`S MCS DEPARTS THE REGION. HIGHS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED TO 77-86F...A LITTLE BELOW THE 4 AM GID FCST. THIS IS
ROUGHLY 8F COOLER THAN NORMAL. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF WINDY
CONDITIONS BEFORE NOON.
WED: VERY NICE. TEMPS BEGIN CREEPING UP A LITTLE...BUT STILL 4-5F
COOLER THAN NORMAL.
WED NIGHT: GOOD LLJ DEVELOPMENT WITH A BURST OF THETA-E ADVECTION.
COULD SEE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS FORM WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
THU: QUESTIONABLE. IT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY WARM FRONTAL
CLOUDINESS DEPARTS ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING EFFECTS FROM POSSIBLE
MCS DEVELOPMENT WED NIGHT. THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE A SUBSTANTIAL
TEMP GRADIENT FROM SW-NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WHILE AREAS FROM ORD-
GREELEY-FULLERTON MAY BE JAMMED IN THE 70S...AREAS FROM BEAVER CITY-
OSBORNE KS MAY BE IN THE UPPER 90S.
FRI: ANOTHER THRUST OF BIG TIME HEAT IN THE WARM SECTOR. BELIEVE
ODDS FAVOR 95-105F. LOOK FOR THIS TIME FRAME TO TREND HIGHER.
FRI NIGHT OR SAT: POSSIBLY A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
EXPECT ONLY A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TODAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. A
COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1154 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
PRODUCTS AND GRIDS WERE UPDATED EARLIER. WILL STILL HOLD ONTO SOME
LOWS POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. LATEST HRRR AND
RAP MODELS SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THERE.
OTHERWISE JUST MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO HIGHS...WINDS AND CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
ON-GOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ABOUT AS EXPECTED AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASED TO AROUND 50 KNOTS COINCIDENT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THIS
RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING IN EASTERN
COUNTIES. THE 06Z RUN OF THE RAP AND THE NAM ACTUALLY KEEP
CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THAT THE LIFT BEING
GENERATED BY THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 15Z
SUNDAY... WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS WERE
INDICATING. THE NAM PUSHES IT INTO KANSAS BY 00Z BUT THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE CLOSER TO 06Z. REGARDLESS OF EXACT TIMING...THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH VERY UNSTABLE AIR...WITH MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FACTORS AGAINST STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A CAP
AS WELL AS A LACK OF BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER WITH
LOW LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT/CONVERGENCE... A FEW STORMS
COULD REACH THE LFC AND BECOME QUITE STRONG GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO MOVE POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES.
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH POPS PLACED IN AREAS LIKELY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE TEMPERATURE/HEAT INDEX FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS COMPLICATED BY
THE FRONT AS WELL AS POTENTIAL CONVECTION. ASSUMING ANY CONVECTION
THAT WOULD DEVELOP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AND
LOOSE DEWPOINT GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT...MOST AREAS SHOULD STILL BE
ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 105 ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES IN SUNDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BY WEDNESDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVES BACK EAST... AND A SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SEE RETURN FLOW ON SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE PINNING DOWN POPS AND TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TSTM CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES FOR
NOW. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY UNDER
15 KNOTS TODAY AND UNDER 9 KNOTS TONIGHT. SOME FOR IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT BUT DID NOT MENTION FOR NOW.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
649 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
ON-GOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ABOUT AS EXPECTED AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASED TO AROUND 50 KNOTS COINCIDENT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THIS
RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING IN EASTERN
COUNTIES. THE 06Z RUN OF THE RAP AND THE NAM ACTUALLY KEEP
CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THAT THE LIFT BEING
GENERATED BY THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 15Z
SUNDAY... WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS WERE
INDICATING. THE NAM PUSHES IT INTO KANSAS BY 00Z BUT THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE CLOSER TO 06Z. REGARDLESS OF EXACT TIMING...THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH VERY UNSTABLE AIR...WITH MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FACTORS AGAINST STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A CAP
AS WELL AS A LACK OF BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER WITH
LOW LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT/CONVERGENCE... A FEW STORMS
COULD REACH THE LFC AND BECOME QUITE STRONG GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO MOVE POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES.
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH POPS PLACED IN AREAS LIKELY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE TEMPERATURE/HEAT INDEX FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS COMPLICATED BY
THE FRONT AS WELL AS POTENTIAL CONVECTION. ASSUMING ANY CONVECTION
THAT WOULD DEVELOP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AND
LOOSE DEWPOINT GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT...MOST AREAS SHOULD STILL BE
ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 105 ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES IN SUNDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BY WEDNESDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVES BACK EAST... AND A SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SEE RETURN FLOW ON SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE PINNING DOWN POPS AND TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
LATEST RADAR SHOWS ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STEADILY
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CLEAR ALL TAF SITES
BY 15Z. THIS CONVECTION IS ONLY A CONCERN AT KLNK AND KOMA. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE INTERMITTENT FOR THE REST OF MORNING. CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT ONCE THE MAIN CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAIN
SHIFTS EAST. GENERALLY GOOD WEATHER THEREAFTER...ESPECIALLY BY MID
AFTERNOON...AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS REMAIN. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS AN
ENHANCED FOG POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. PROBABLY THE BEST
CHANCE OF THIS WOULD BE AT KOMA WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN WAS RECEIVED
EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...PEARSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
412 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
ON-GOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ABOUT AS EXPECTED AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASED TO AROUND 50 KNOTS COINCIDENT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THIS
RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING IN EASTERN
COUNTIES. THE 06Z RUN OF THE RAP AND THE NAM ACTUALLY KEEP
CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THAT THE LIFT BEING
GENERATED BY THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 15Z
SUNDAY... WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS WERE
INDICATING. THE NAM PUSHES IT INTO KANSAS BY 00Z BUT THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE CLOSER TO 06Z. REGARDLESS OF EXACT TIMING...THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH VERY UNSTABLE AIR...WITH MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FACTORS AGAINST STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A CAP
AS WELL AS A LACK OF BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER WITH
LOW LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT/CONVERGENCE... A FEW STORMS
COULD REACH THE LFC AND BECOME QUITE STRONG GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO MOVE POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES.
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH POPS PLACED IN AREAS LIKELY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE TEMPERATURE/HEAT INDEX FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS COMPLICATED BY
THE FRONT AS WELL AS POTENTIAL CONVECTION. ASSUMING ANY CONVECTION
THAT WOULD DEVELOP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AND
LOOSE DEWPOINT GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT...MOST AREAS SHOULD STILL BE
ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 105 ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES IN SUNDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BY WEDNESDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVES BACK EAST... AND A SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SEE RETURN FLOW ON SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE PINNING DOWN POPS AND TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP TO OUR EAST AND THERE
ARE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SD/NE BORDER. EXPECT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE COMBINATION
OF DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING INTO THE AREA...A WEAK SHORTWAVE...AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. DID MENTION SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY...BUT TRIED TO LIMIT THE TEMPO GROUP FOR THE TSRA
TO JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT TIMING.
MENTIONED LLWS AT ALL THREE SITES AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 40KTS. MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS IN AREAS OF PRECIP AND ALSO
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1237 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 753 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE MOST RECENT
RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA TRENDS. IT APPEARS THAT IF ANY OF THE
CONVECTION THAT IS OUT IN COLORADO IS GOING TO MAKE IT INTO OUR
CWA...IT WILL MORE LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND I HAVE CUT
BACK CHANCES OF RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER
NORTH. LATER ON IN THE LATE EVENING PAST 10 PM...THE NOSE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET MAY VERY WELL BE FOCUSED TOWARD THE NORTHERN
CWA...WHERE I KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN A BIT HIGHER. OVERALL...CHANCES
OF RAIN DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT HIGH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MOST
LOCATIONS TO LET OFF FIREWORKS WITHOUT MUCH OF A HITCH...THE ONLY
CAVEAT MAY BE HOW MUCH WIND WE HAVE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE LOW-
LEVEL JET INCREASES. CONSRAW INDICATES SOME GUSTS MAY GET CLOSE TO
25 MPH. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE THE BEST INITIALIZED MODEL FOR
GAUGING WHERE RAIN MAY BE TONIGHT...AND IT POINTS MORE TO THE
SOUTH WHERE LEFTOVER CONVECTION OUT OF COLORADO WILL FINALLY MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO POSSIBLY GIVE A LITTLE RAIN BEFORE FALLING
APART. THERE COULD BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO...GIVEN MODERATE MID-
LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MODERATE SHEAR. THE WARM FRONT
APPEARS TO BE HEADING EAST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER
FORECAST...SO INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR
ROUGHLY OUR EASTERN TWO TIERS OF NEBRASKA COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND TEMPERATURES.
CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE ARE STILL
SOME AROUND. SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND HAVE BROUGHT IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS RAISING A FEW DEGREES IN
MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT LOCATIONS AND TIMING OF THE
STORMS. THE NAM HAS THEM MOVING INTO THE WEST ALREADY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS IT MORE DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE
NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE KEPT WITH
THAT AND HAVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THEN OVERNIGHT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.
THE NEXT QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHETHER ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW THAT LINGER
IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT AFTER THAT AND ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE
PLAINS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY...BEFORE A SERIES OF WEAK
FRONTS/DISTURBANCES RESULT IN HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...AND A RETURN TO A
MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALONG WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
FOR SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO EITHER THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OR TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
SURGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...WHICH COMBINED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE THE VERY
WARM AFTERNOON FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON HWO.
THEN...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
SURGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH MODEST SHEAR AND WEAK FORCING FROM
THE FRONT...COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS FIRE
UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THAT
SAID...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SPOTTY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SO
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS DEFINITELY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS POINT. THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACTUALLY APPEARS BE THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
SECONDARY FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THEREAFTER...CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDENT ON WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...AS AMPLE
INSTABILITY WILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION BACK ACROSS
THE PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM END
TO THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME ISLD/SCT PRECIP IN THE TERMINAL AREAS SO
WILL KEEP THE VCTS MENTION GOING...BUT CONFIDENCE IT OCCURRING IS
NOT HIGH. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SFC PATTERN WILL KEEP THE
SRLY WINDS IN PLACE...BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO DIMINISH DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS A SFC BOUNDARY SLIDES IN FROM THE
WEST. SKY COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN ALSO START TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1038 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER WHAT HAS BEEN A DRY WEEKEND...THE WEATHER IS ABOUT TO
BECOME MORE UNSETTLED. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SPRINKLES FELL APART ON THEIR WAY IN AS
EXPECTED...MAINLY JUST VIRGA. GRIDS TWEAKED TO KEEP UP WITH CLOUD
DECK ETC. OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE CHANCE FROM THE UPDATE DONE
EARLIER.
530 PM UPDATE...
AMPED SKY GRIDS UP TO ACCOUNT FOR THICKER-THAN-EXPECTED WING OF
CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TWIN TIERS AT THIS TIME.
INITIAL NORTHEASTERN PORTION SHOWS UP IN RUC13 RH FIELDS AROUND
500MB. THEN REMAINDER OF THICKER CLOUD SHIELD NOW SPREADING FROM
WESTERN TO CENTRAL PA...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NEPA AND PERHAPS SOME
OF THE NY/PA BORDER ZONES LATER THIS EVENING AS PER 700MB RH FIELD
OF THE RUC13. VIRGA IS ALSO SHOWING UP ON OUR RADAR
CURRENTLY...YET LOW LEVELS ARE MUCH TOO DRY FOR IT TO REACH THE
GROUND...AT LEAST INITIALLY. WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
INBOUND...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES INCLUDING
BRADFORD PA...THE CITY NOT THE COUNTY. I DO NOT SEE THAT GETTING
MUCH PAST THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INCLUDING THE WIND FARMS OF
BRADFORD PA...THE COUNTY NOT THE CITY...AND PERHAPS NEAR RICKETTS
GLEN...AS IT ENCOUNTERS MINOR DOWNSLOPING ANYWHERE BEYOND THAT AS
WELL AS CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MENTION OF SPRINKLES HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AROUND THOSE AREAS...OTHERWISE LOOKING TOTALLY DRY /AND
EVEN FOR THOSE LOCATIONS GETTING A SPRINKLE...OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE/.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK FROM OHIO ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING. SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA... ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PA... BUT THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE TOO
DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE NOW BLOWING UP CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM IN
UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THAT WAVE GETS
HERE...BUT 18Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM HAVE IT SOMEWHERE AROUND FINGER
LAKES 12Z-15Z. THE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT MAKES THE FORECAST CHALLENGING FOR DETAILS OF
EVOLUTION FOR CONVECTION MONDAY. OVERALL...A SCENARIO WITH MODEST
CAPE BUT GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR. OUR LOCAL ANALOG TOOL COMPARING
FORECAST CONDITIONS TO PAST EVENTS...RETURNS CASES FEATURING
PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LITTLE HAIL /UNDERSTANDABLE GIVEN
THE NARROWER LOOK TO THE CAPE IN THE SOUNDINGS/. HOWEVER...ALSO A
COUPLE ISOLATED SUPERCELL-WEAK TORNADO CASES. THERE IS SOME
TURNING IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE NAM SOUNDING...AND
NOTABLY...0-1 KM HELICITY INCREASES TO OVER 150 M2/S2 BY MONDAY
EVENING...A THRESHOLD THAT LOCALLY HAS SHOWN TO BE IMPORTANT IN
PAST CASES. SPC MAINTAINS MOST OF OUR AREA AS SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
MONDAY...AND MENTIONS THAT ANY MORE RIGHTWARD MOVING INDIVIDUAL
CELLS COULD GAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...WHICH MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE ABOVE ENVIRONMENT. WITH THAT WOULD COME ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO.
FORECAST UPDATED TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF MAIN CONVECTION BY A
FEW HOURS...WHILE ALSO ADDING MENTION OF STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND
EASTERN CANADA. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY... SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RAPID INCREASE
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MID 60S DEW POINTS BY AFTERNOON. THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE MONDAY WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN THE INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY
UPSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN... HOWEVER AT THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING
AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE WHICH WOULD ALLOW CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. 0-3 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-35 KTS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ORGANIZED LINES OF CONVECTION WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. BASED ON
THIS WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL IN THE
HWO. PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND
2.0 INCHES SO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
AND WE ARE GOING WITH POPS AROUND 70 PERCENT FROM AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
AFTER A LULL MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT ONCE AGAIN THAT CAPE VALUES WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ONCE AGAIN
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST AS LARGE ON TUESDAY AS MONDAY AND ONCE AGAIN
THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THESE
STORMS INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
THE MAIN SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWERING DEW POINTS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ONLY
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A FEW SHOWERS
MAY YET DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT POPS WILL BE LOWER THAN
MONDAY OR TUESDAY AND THE SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE
LOWER DUE TO LOWER DEW POINTS AND LESS INSTABILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...WRN CONUS/WRN CANADIAN
RIDGING AND A L/WV TROUGH FROM HUDSON`S BAY SWD OVER THE ERN CONUS
WILL SET THE PATN THIS PD. HOW AMPLIFIED THIS CONFIGURATION IS...THOUGH
WILL VARY OVER TIME. IN GENERAL...THIS TRANSLATES TO AN
ABSENCE OF ANY TRULY HOT WX (HIGHS FROM THE 70S-MID 80S)...WITH
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ROLLING THROUGH ABT EVERY 2-3 DAYS.
AS FOR THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX...LINGERING SHWRS/TSTMS ARE PSBL AT
THE START OF THE PD WED NGT-THU...AS A NRN STREAM S/WV AND SFC
COLD FRNT SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST. FRI THROUGH MOST OF SAT
LOOK RAIN-FREE AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE PT...WITH THE ERN TROUGH
TEMPORARILY RELAXING. FOR THE LATTER PTN OF NEXT WEEKEND...SHWRS
AND TSTMS MAY WELL RETURN...AS A RELOADING OF THE L/WV TROUGH AXIS
UPSTREAM HERALDS THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT S/WV...ALG WITH A SFC
WARM FRNT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH SCT TSRA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. SOME INITIAL SCT -SHRA MAY OCCUR MONDAY MORNING BUT
NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE RESTRICTIONS THAT EARLY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OR VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY WITH GUSTS 16-22 KTS LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. PROB30
CB GROUPS HAVE BEEN INSERTED AT THE MORE PROBABLE TIMES OF
CONVECTION FOR THE TERMINALS...EARLIEST NORTH /KSYR-KRME/ AND
LATEST SOUTH /KAVP/. ANY TERMINALS TAKING DIRECT HIT FROM CELLS
MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD EXPERIENCE STRONG GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT THROUGH THU...VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME...BUT RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA ESPECIALLY AFTN-EVE HRS TUE-WED.
FRI...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/MSE
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MDP/MSE
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
735 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER WHAT HAS BEEN A DRY WEEKEND...THE WEATHER IS ABOUT TO
BECOME MORE UNSETTLED. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
530 PM UPDATE...
AMPED SKY GRIDS UP TO ACCOUNT FOR THICKER-THAN-EXPECTED WING OF
CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TWIN TIERS AT THIS TIME.
INITIAL NORTHEASTERN PORTION SHOWS UP IN RUC13 RH FIELDS AROUND
500MB. THEN REMAINDER OF THICKER CLOUD SHIELD NOW SPREADING FROM
WESTERN TO CENTRAL PA...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NEPA AND PERHAPS SOME
OF THE NY/PA BORDER ZONES LATER THIS EVENING AS PER 700MB RH FIELD
OF THE RUC13. VIRGA IS ALSO SHOWING UP ON OUR RADAR
CURRENTLY...YET LOW LEVELS ARE MUCH TOO DRY FOR IT TO REACH THE
GROUND...AT LEAST INITIALLY. WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
INBOUND...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES INCLUDING
BRADFORD PA...THE CITY NOT THE COUNTY. I DO NOT SEE THAT GETTING
MUCH PAST THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INCLUDING THE WIND FARMS OF
BRADFORD PA...THE COUNTY NOT THE CITY...AND PERHAPS NEAR RICKETTS
GLEN...AS IT ENCOUNTERS MINOR DOWNSLOPING ANYWHERE BEYOND THAT AS
WELL AS CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MENTION OF SPRINKLES HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AROUND THOSE AREAS...OTHERWISE LOOKING TOTALLY DRY /AND
EVEN FOR THOSE LOCATIONS GETTING A SPRINKLE...OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE/.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK FROM OHIO ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING. SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA... ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PA... BUT THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE TOO
DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND
EASTERN CANADA. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY... SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RAPID INCREASE
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MID 60S DEW POINTS BY AFTERNOON. THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE MONDAY WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN THE INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY
UPSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN... HOWEVER AT THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING
AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE WHICH WOULD ALLOW CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. 0-3 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-35 KTS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ORGANIZED LINES OF CONVECTION WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. BASED ON
THIS WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL IN THE
HWO. PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND
2.0 INCHES SO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
AND WE ARE GOING WITH POPS AROUND 70 PERCENT FROM AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
AFTER A LULL MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT ONCE AGAIN THAT CAPE VALUES WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ONCE AGAIN
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST AS LARGE ON TUESDAY AS MONDAY AND ONCE AGAIN
THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THESE
STORMS INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
THE MAIN SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWERING DEW POINTS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ONLY
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A FEW SHOWERS
MAY YET DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT POPS WILL BE LOWER THAN
MONDAY OR TUESDAY AND THE SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE
LOWER DUE TO LOWER DEW POINTS AND LESS INSTABILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...WRN CONUS/WRN CANADIAN
RIDGING AND A L/WV TROUGH FROM HUDSON`S BAY SWD OVER THE ERN CONUS
WILL SET THE PATN THIS PD. HOW AMPLIFIED THIS CONFIGURATION IS...THOUGH
WILL VARY OVER TIME. IN GENERAL...THIS TRANSLATES TO AN
ABSENCE OF ANY TRULY HOT WX (HIGHS FROM THE 70S-MID 80S)...WITH
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ROLLING THROUGH ABT EVERY 2-3 DAYS.
AS FOR THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX...LINGERING SHWRS/TSTMS ARE PSBL AT
THE START OF THE PD WED NGT-THU...AS A NRN STREAM S/WV AND SFC
COLD FRNT SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST. FRI THROUGH MOST OF SAT
LOOK RAIN-FREE AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE PT...WITH THE ERN TROUGH
TEMPORARILY RELAXING. FOR THE LATTER PTN OF NEXT WEEKEND...SHWRS
AND TSTMS MAY WELL RETURN...AS A RELOADING OF THE L/WV TROUGH AXIS
UPSTREAM HERALDS THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT S/WV...ALG WITH A SFC
WARM FRNT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH SCT TSRA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. SOME INITIAL SCT -SHRA MAY OCCUR MONDAY MORNING BUT
NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE RESTRICTIONS THAT EARLY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OR VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY WITH GUSTS 16-22 KTS LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. PROB30
CB GROUPS HAVE BEEN INSERTED AT THE MORE PROBABLE TIMES OF
CONVECTION FOR THE TERMINALS...EARLIEST NORTH /KSYR-KRME/ AND
LATEST SOUTH /KAVP/. ANY TERMINALS TAKING DIRECT HIT FROM CELLS
MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD EXPERIENCE STRONG GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT THROUGH THU...VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME...BUT RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA ESPECIALLY AFTN-EVE HRS TUE-WED.
FRI...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/MSE
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE NEAR-TERM
NWS WILMINGTON NC
444 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND ANCHOR OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ALLOWING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RETURN MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
GRADUALLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PIEDMONT AND SAND
HILLS OF THE CAROLINAS...WILL LED TO AN INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK...MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT BY JULY
STANDARDS...WITH MOST PLACES ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. THESE
DEVIATIONS MAY BE A BIT SMALLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THERE
WILL BE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED BELOW
ABOUT 7KFT AND THE EXTENT OF OUR CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAINTAINED OR
EVEN INCREASE. THE LATTER SEEMS MORE LIKELY AS THE OFFSHORE
BOUNDARY WILL BE MAINTAINED BY THE MID LEVEL ENERGY TRAVERSING IT.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH TO OUR
NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...ANOTHER DAY WITH RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY
WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY BEFORE THE CANADIAN HIGH MIGRATES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY THAN SUNDAY
DUE TO VEERING WINDS AND THE USHERING OF A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME AIR-MASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. ON AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPS MONDAY
LOOKS TO PAN OUT 4-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER GA/SC MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR VERY SOUTHERN COAST
AND COASTAL INTERIOR TO NEAR CAPE FEAR SUNDAY. DRY AIR ALOFT OVER
THE REGION WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF EXPECTED PCPN
AND CELL COVERAGE...AND ONLY ISOLATED POP VALUES WILL BE
ADVERTISED FOR THE SC ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY DRY AND QUIET START
TO THE PERIOD AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S INLAND/LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. PATTERN BEGINS TO
CHANGE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS WITH THE AID OF A HIGH PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST . TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS AND FIZZLES WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...OR IF IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA AND STALLS.
OVERALL...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP WITH A NON-FRONTAL PASSAGE
EVENT...BUT RATHER HAVING IT STALL/FALL JUST SHORT TO OUR WEST. WITH
THAT SAID...HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER/POPS AND KEPT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS MOISTURE
INCREASES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES OR
SLIGHTLY MORE. AS FOR TEMPS WE WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.
THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE ENE-ESE WITH SPEEDS SLOWLY DECREASING
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E JUST TO THE N OF THE
TERMINALS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...SO OTHER THAN A FEW AFTN CU...AND SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CLOUD COVER. E WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE TO E-NE AROUND 5 KTS THIS EVENING.
SUNDAY MORNING WINDS WILL BE E-SE AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 440 PM SATURDAY...I HAVE UPDATED THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH STRONGER SPEEDS THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE
FORECAST. SUSTAINED WINDS ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MYRTLE BEACH AND GEORGETOWN ARE 15-20 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 22 KNOTS RECENTLY REPORTED AT SPRINGMAID PIER IN MYRTLE
BEACH. 12Z AND 18Z GFS AND NAM PLUS THE RECENT HRRR RUNS CAPTURE
TRENDS WELL AND ARE THE BASIS FOR THIS UPDATE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SEAS HAVE ALSO BEEN BUMPED
UP...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 0-5 MILES OF THE COAST WHERE FORECAST
MODIFICATIONS ON THE ORDER OF +2 TO +3 FEET HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THE
STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. SEAS FARTHER FROM SHORE (10-20 MILES) ARE
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...ONSHORE ENE-E WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL
RESULT IN BUMPY 3-4 FOOT SEAS FOR THE MOST PART...BUT AS WINDS GO
SE AND S INTO AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SEAS WILL LIKELY DROP
ANOTHER FOOT OR SO. SO WHILE NOT IDEAL CONDITIONS...NO ADVISORIES
OR EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED. NO TSTMS EXPECTED
ON THE 0-20NM WATERS BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY DOT AREAS AROUND WINYAH
BAY. THE MAJORITY OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ARRIVING FROM E AND SE
AND A MODERATE CHOP FROM THE S-SW IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS NEAR 20 KT. AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTS
TO NEAR 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH AFTERNOON. WITH
MAINLY WIND DRIVEN WIND WAVES...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 4 FT WITH 5 FTERS POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN AMZ-252 AND AMZ-250. INTO THURSDAY...SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MBB/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...MRR/MBB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HRRR IS ONCE AGAIN PERFORMING MORE
FAVORABLY THAN RAP AS IT RELATES TO CURRENT CONVECTION...SO WILL
FOLLOW ITS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS AND THEN
TRANSITION TO A GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE.
SFC TROUGH REFUSES TO BUDGE WITH A DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR
THE ND/MN/MB BORDER. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION FROM DEVILS LAKE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY RESULTING
IN A DRIER OVERALL AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH SFC BASED CAPE IS STILL
ABOVE 2000 J/KG. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NORTHWEST MN IN UNCAPPED
MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAREST THE SFC LOW. FORCING IS
STILL RATHER WEAK...BUT ONE SEVERE STORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER
WINNIPEG AND IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. A COUPLE OTHER SMALL
CELLS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE SFC WIND SHIFT JUST NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND IN KITTSON COUNTY. ISOLATED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
HIGH INSTABILITY. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS
EVENING WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S.
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA. INCREASING SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH MUCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHWEST MN. HRRR PLACES THIS LINE ALONG THE
VALLEY FLOOR BY 06 UTC. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MN ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPS/DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER
RESULTING IN LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AT
TIMES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST MON/TUES WITH THE NEXT PRIMARY
WAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW
DEEP NEXT 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE OVER ONTARIO AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. EITHER WAY FCST REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH EXITING SHORT WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE
FOR WED-EARLY THU. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT US LATE
THU-FRI. DIDNT STRAY FROM ALL BLEND TEMPS NOR POPS MUCH. OVERALL
TEMP REGIME AFTER THIS WEEKEND FAVORS A RETURN TO JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT/TIMING REMAIN AT LOW CONFIDENCE
AND THUS CONTINUED TO USE VCTS IN TIME PERIODS WHEN BEST CHANCE
WILL BE. WEAK TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE RRV LATE AFTN/EVE WILL
GIVE A LIGHT WIND TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST...BUT A MORE
DEFINITE NORTHWEST WIND TAKING SHAPE AFTER 12Z SUN IN ERN ND/RRV.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1250 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
KEPT THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
AND JAMES VALLEY AREAS AS PREVIOUS UPDATE...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A WEAK TROUGH IN
THE AREA...AND SAW THAT MINOT AND WILLISTON AREAS HAD SOME LOWER
VISIBILITIES IN FOG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG INVERSION
SETTING UP WITH THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS VERY SMALL. ADDED A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH
DAKOTA AS SOME CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR GLEN ULLIN
WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. EXPECT ANY COVERAGE TO BE
ISOLATED AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. FOR TONIGHT THE
WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTATIONS ARE LOW FOR CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. HRRR MESO MODEL TRIES
TO GET A LINE OF CONVECTION GOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING BUT DIMINISHES THE CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. LOOKS
AS THOUGH MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL FOCUS MORE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY THEN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER WARM UP BY
NEXT WEEKS END.
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY LEADS TO
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY BY DAYS END INTO THE EVENING. COMPARED TO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE SITUATION LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS
SATURDAY EVENING/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING 40-50KTS OF
0-6KM SHEAR ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME CIN WILL BE
PRESENT...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
JET STREAK AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY INHIBITION. SPC
EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER MORE SOUTH TO
INCLUDE MORE OF WEST AND CENTRAL ND TO ACCOMMODATE THOSE AREAS NEAR
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL IMPULSES AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER JET.
SURFACE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE
OFF TO MY NORTHEAST MAY TRIGGER ANOTHER STORM ON SUNDAY AROUND THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE LOOKS DRY SUNDAY DAYTIME WITH A
BREEZY DRYING-OUT NORTHWEST WIND. ANOTHER EMBEDDED
WAVE...TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A MORE ROBUST WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA
ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY FOR THIS LATER
FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND 80S...BUT ALMOST DAILY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
A RETURN OF MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND AND CONTINUED INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT BEYOND THE EXTEND PERIOD...NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS/KJMS
UNTIL AROUND 10Z-12Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE ISOLD TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN ND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTERLY AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE TOWARDS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD UNTIL A COLD
FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH KISN/KDIK AROUND 01Z-02Z AND THROUGH
KMOT/KBIS AROUND 03Z-04Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
CREATED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORAGE AT BOTH ALAMEDA DAM AND
LAKE DARLING. RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM INCREASED TO 1060 CFS ON
WEDNESDAY. RELEASES FROM LAKE DARLING DAM WILL REMAIN AROUND 2000
CFS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ON THE SOURIS
RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
HYDROLOGY...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAS FINALLY MOVED EASTWARD
AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ON ITS
WAY. ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SOME 70 DEW POINTS
ARE STARTING TO POOL IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THINK THAT
WINDS WILL STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG
FORMATION...BUT WITH THAT MUCH MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON IT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ALMOST RIGHT AFTER THE PREVIOUS UPDATE WAS SENT MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS STARTED TO DEVELOP CENTERED AROUND THE FARGO AREA...WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY FROM NEAR FOSSTON DOWN TOWARDS THE
RANSOM/SARGENT AREA. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING OVER THE
SAME AREA...AND NONE OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
IT. THE WRF SEEMS THE CLOSEST BUT HAS TOO MUCH PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN VALLEY. FROM THE SPC MESO PAGE AND WV LOOP...IT SEEMS
THAT THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WHERE THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THINK THAT THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
WEAKEN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF AND THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS SHIFT TO THE EAST. BUMPED UP POPS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
FROM THE 60-70 PERCENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY THEN BECOMING 40-50 PERCENT A BIT LATER ON. WILL PROBABLY
HAVE TO MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENT LATER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO BE CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BUT MORE
SCATTERED STORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL
RRV AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND. MODERATE INSTABILITY CONTINUES BUT
BULK SHEAR IS NOT THAT HIGH. WILL MONITOR FOR ANY STRENGTHENING OF
STORMS BUT DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALSO CONCERNED WITH SEVERE CHANCES SATURDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAP HAVING TROUBLE WITH TIMING
AND LOCATION OF CURRENT CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE MORE REALISTIC
HRRR...SO WILL USE THE LATTER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS TRANSITIONING TO A GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SATURDAY
AND BEYOND.
20 UTC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF NON-SEVERE CONVECTION.
THE FIRST IS A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AND
THE SECOND IS MUCH SMALLER ALONG THE EASTERN ND/SD BORDER. THIS
SECOND AREA OF STORMS HAS THE GREATER POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
GIVEN A WEAKENING CAP IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FORCING WITH SHORT-WAVE ALOFT SEEMS TO
BE FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH AND MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORM
INTENSIFICATION. OVERALL...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING EAST OF THE RIVER
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SATURDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN AFTERNOON ENVIRONMENT THAT IS
HIGHLY UNSTABLE (SFC CAPE RISING TO 4000 J/KG)...BUT CAPPED BY
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING PROVIDING THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
MAIN QUESTION IS IF SFC CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED
AND/OR MID-LEVELS WILL COOL ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. WILL
FOLLOW SPC THINKING IN THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD BEGIN ACROSS
CENTRAL ND AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITION INTO SOME KIND OF MCS AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN LATE SATURDAY/
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS IDEA IS COVERED WELL IN SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S) WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT INDICATING A WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...PLACING THIS REGION IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE FLATTENS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ARE HARD TO
TIME...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE A SITUATION WHERE MOST DAYS WILL HAVE
ISOLD-SCATTERED T-STORMS FOR A SHORT DURATION. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES...POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS SOME CONVECTION MAKES ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE TAF SITES. SOME STORMS MAY STILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KBJI AND KFAR MAY STILL HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS...BUT
OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE THINGS SETTLE DOWN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT
FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED A MENTION AT KDVL AFTER 03Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1035 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY WHEN A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. DRIER WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST HRRR AND RUC SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES/MID MS RIVER VLY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
DWINDLE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. AS SUCH...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOW STAY MAINLY DRY
OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/STORM ENCROACHING
THE WESTERN ZONES TOWARD 8 AM. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY
MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH
LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW OFF FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO OHIO
ON MONDAY. IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. WITH
THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE QUASI ZONAL UPPER FLOW...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING MAY
REACH SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO RELATIVELY VIGOROUS WIND FIELDS AND
MODERATE INSTABILITIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIP DURING PEAK HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
FCST PERIOD. EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE INSTBY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTN IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT. THIS INSTBY COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR WILL LKLY RESULT IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THIS
SIGNAL HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER FOR SEVERAL
RUNS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING MAIN THREATS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT IN HWO PRODUCT. WITH CONSISTENT
SIGNAL FROM MODELS WILL BUMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL TUESDAY AFTN
INTO TUE EVENING.
THIS SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THRU THE AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS MAINLY EARLY SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING FROM THE NORTH. IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.
MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
ON THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLN THAT UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEAN TROF...THERE
COULD BE A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTN...MAINLY ACRS THE
EAST...BUT HAVE KEPT FCST DRY AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY.
THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY WHILE MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS MINOR MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND
AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING SAT AFTN DUE TO AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
OHIO. WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS ACRS ENTIRE FA SAT NIGHT WITH WARM
FRONT PIVOTING THRU FA. LOW CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY IN WARM
SECTOR WITH APPROACH OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE AVIATION FORECAST THIS GO AROUND WILL FOCUS ON THE COVERAGE
AND TIMING OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS/STORMS.
A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS/STORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT PER RADAR
DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS LINE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z IS NOT HIGH. SOME MODELS WEAKEN THE
LINE BUT STILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM...MOVING INTO OUR AREA. COVERAGE IS THEN FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING...OR AROUND 15Z. OTHER MODELS COMPLETELY
ALLOW THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO FALL APART BEFORE EVEN REACHING THE
FORECAST AREA. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE JUST ALLOWED FOR AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT WITH A VCSH AT THE TERMINALS.
ON MONDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT UNTIL ABOUT MID AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CERTAINLY RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION REMAINS WHAT
WILL BE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST THAT A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION MAY KEEP SURFACE BASED CONVECTION CAPPED UNTIL ABOUT THE
20Z-22Z TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A
PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS MAY ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE IN THE DAY. PLACEMENT IS STILL IN QUESTION SO
HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS/CB AT ALL THE TERMINALS FOR NOW.
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLOW UP AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
CONVECTION COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POISED FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AFFECT THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAY LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
223 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
HOT SUMMER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THERE WILL BE LOW RAIN CHANCES AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WIDESPREAD RAINS REMAIN UNLIKELY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 9 PM
THIS EVENING NEAR AND ALONG AN ENHANCED AREA OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF I-35 WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES AND MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE
TO NO CIN. LATEST HRRR RUNS DEPICTED THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR
NOW...DID NOT INCLUDE RAIN IN THE FORECAST AS COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 10 PERCENT. ANY SHOWER OR STORM WOULD BE PULSE IN
NATURE...MOVE VERY SLOWLY...AND PERHAPS PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS AND DOWNPOURS. NOT SURE THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE DUE TO THE
LACK OF LIFT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET.
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR A WEAK
MID/UPPER TROUGH MAY MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AFTER 7 PM. WITHOUT A
STRONG TRIGGER FOR LIFT...LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TO 10 PERCENT AND
WENT WITH ISOLATED MENTION NORTH OF A CHEYENNE TO BLACKWELL LINE.
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
POORLY ORGANIZED STORMS AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN.
LATE TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME INDICATION WEAK ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR NORTH OF A VERNON TEXAS TO ADA LINE...BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION AS CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE A BIT HOTTER COMPARED TO TODAY
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN. STORM CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO
MENTION. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 95 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE BOTH DAYS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...REACHING NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY. ADDED LOW RAIN
CHANCES...AROUND 20 PERCENT...TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR
THE FRONT...THEN KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD
RAINS OR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH
A FEW STORMS MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND RAINFREE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 94 72 96 / 10 10 10 0
HOBART OK 71 97 71 101 / 10 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 97 73 99 / 10 10 10 0
GAGE OK 71 97 71 100 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 96 74 99 / 10 10 0 0
DURANT OK 71 94 73 97 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN BR/HZ MAY OCCUR 10-14Z...BUT DID
NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
TS COVERAGE/CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION.
NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH
OF A KFDR-KLAW-KOUN 01-15Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TEMPS/PRECIP/WX...
DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE STEADILY CLIMBING
THROUGH THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS WRN
OK/WRN N TX... TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS CENTRAL OK.
FOR THE LATE AFTN/EVENING... CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEAK CU
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN OK... WELL AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS WRN KS INTO NERN NM. KEPT PRECIP/WX FORECAST
RELATIVELY THE SAME FROM THE NIGHT SHIFT... AS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY. RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM KWWR/KGAG
PLACE THE CONVECTIVE TEMP SOMEWHERE NEAR 100... WHICH IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME LOCATIONS ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
OK/TX PH... BUT INITIATION WILL STILL BE A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE
WEAKLY FORCED AND MODEST SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WITH THAT SAID... ANY
UPDRAFT THAT IS ABLE TO GO WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS... GIVEN TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE LOW LEVELS...
AND LL LAPSE RATES IN THE 9-10.5 C/KM RANGE.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED STORM WORDING IN FORECAST FOR MAINLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...IN
PROXIMITY TO S/WV TROUGH THAT WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
NEXT MENTIONABLE POPS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SURFACE FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA...DRIVEN BY DAILY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND FLOW THROUGH BASE OF GREAT LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER BASINS. GREATEST CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE
RAIN TOTALS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND EAST EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...BUT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF
THE PICTURE ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM TODAY INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASE IN CLOUD POTENTIAL AND
FRONT/OUTFLOWS COMPLICATING MID-WEEK TEMP FORECASTS. CONSENSUS
APPROACH TO GRIDDED FORECAST TAKES THIS INTO ACCOUNT. THIS KEEPS
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF ANTICIPATED FRONT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND
OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK.
DEWPOINT VALUES ARE NOT PROGD TO BE EXCESSIVE SO MOST AREAS WILL
SEE HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO DRY BULB READINGS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 92 72 93 72 / 0 10 10 10
HOBART OK 95 70 96 71 / 0 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 94 72 97 73 / 0 10 10 10
GAGE OK 94 70 97 71 / 10 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 92 74 96 74 / 0 10 10 0
DURANT OK 89 71 94 73 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/17/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TEMPS/PRECIP/WX...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE STEADILY CLIMBING
THROUGH THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS WRN
OK/WRN N TX... TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS CENTRAL OK.
FOR THE LATE AFTN/EVENING... CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEAK CU
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN OK... WELL AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS WRN KS INTO NERN NM. KEPT PRECIP/WX FORECAST
RELATIVELY THE SAME FROM THE NIGHT SHIFT... AS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY. RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM KWWR/KGAG
PLACE THE CONVECTIVE TEMP SOMEWHERE NEAR 100... WHICH IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME LOCATIONS ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
OK/TX PH... BUT INITIATION WILL STILL BE A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE
WEAKLY FORCED AND MODEST SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WITH THAT SAID... ANY
UPDRAFT THAT IS ABLE TO GO WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS... GIVEN TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE LOW LEVELS...
AND LL LAPSE RATES IN THE 9-10.5 C/KM RANGE.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED STORM WORDING IN FORECAST FOR MAINLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...IN
PROXIMITY TO S/WV TROUGH THAT WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
NEXT MENTIONABLE POPS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SURFACE FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA...DRIVEN BY DAILY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND FLOW THROUGH BASE OF GREAT LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER BASINS. GREATEST CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE
RAIN TOTALS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND EAST EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...BUT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF
THE PICTURE ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM TODAY INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASE IN CLOUD POTENTIAL AND
FRONT/OUTFLOWS COMPLICATING MID-WEEK TEMP FORECASTS. CONSENSUS
APPROACH TO GRIDDED FORECAST TAKES THIS INTO ACCOUNT. THIS KEEPS
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF ANTICIPATED FRONT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND
OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK.
DEWPOINT VALUES ARE NOT PROGD TO BE EXCESSIVE SO MOST AREAS WILL
SEE HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO DRY BULB READINGS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 93 72 96 / 10 10 10 0
HOBART OK 70 96 71 100 / 10 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 97 73 98 / 10 10 10 0
GAGE OK 70 97 71 99 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 96 74 99 / 10 10 0 0
DURANT OK 71 94 73 97 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
347 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)
Cumulus development was more extensive over West Central Texas than
yesterday. While the 17Z HRRR model reflectivity did indicated
isolated shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon, cumulus
at 3 PM had limited vertical extent, and expect dry conditions this
evening.
Dry conditions continue Sunday as upper ridging holds over the
region. Will maintain a persistence forecast, with lows in the lower
70s and highs in the mid 90s.
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Warm and dry conditions will continue across West Central Texas
through next week. The center of the upper high will remain over the
four corners region through midweek, then flatten and expand east
across the Southern Plains through next Saturday. Models still show a
weak TUTT moving into extreme south Texas and far northeastern Mexico
by Wednesday. This feature will remain nearly stationary across this
area through Thursday, then drift slowly west across Northern Mexico
by early next weekend. About the only noticeable effect from the
TUTT will be an increase in some diurnal cumulus by mid to late
week. Temperatures through the extended period will remain at or
slightly above seasonal normals for this time of year.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 72 94 71 96 72 / 5 5 5 5 5
San Angelo 72 95 69 96 72 / 5 5 5 5 5
Junction 69 94 70 95 70 / 5 5 5 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.AVIATION...
EXPANDING CU FIELD AT 17Z STRETCHES FROM ROUGHLY GLS TO IAH TO CLOSE
TO UTS. SOME SHRA/TSRA ARE DEVELOPING IN AND AROUND THE AREA OF DEEPEST
MOISTURE NEAR THE COAST...AROUND THE GLS AND LBX AREAS. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM OFFSHORE CONVECTION IS MOVING INLAND ALONG THE COAST
NEAR THE GLS AREA. AS HEATING CONTINUES...THINK WE WILL SEE MORE
DEVELOPMENT AS BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER. FOR NOW...WILL
CARRY VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE LBX AND HOU AND SGR SITES AND MONITOR
HOW THINGS PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO EXPAND MORE WESTWARD THAN NORTHWARD...BUT WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED IF SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN AND
AROUND THE IAH AND POSSIBLY THE CXO SITES. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR HAS TRIED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH VERY MOIST PWAT AIR REMAINING ACROSS
THE HOUSTON AREA. HIGH RES HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF BOTH SHOW
COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES
TOWARDS OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. AT 500 MB VERY WEAK RIDGING
REMAINS OVERHEAD WHICH SUPPORTS THE HIGH RES MODELS IN DEVELOPING
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT 12Z SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEAL FAIRLY
DEEP MOISTURE AT KCRP (PWAT 1.87"). FORECAST PACKAGE HAS THIS
COVERED. NO UPDATE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. 23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO NE/N PARTS
OF THE REGION AND GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY CONFIRMS. STILL HAVE
RESPECTABLE MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THE AREA AND WILL
GEAR HIGHER POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-10 AND WEST OF I-45 TODAY.
SEVERAL OUTFLOWS SEEN OFF THE UPPER COAST AND DISTINCT LANDBREEZE
IS SETTING UP CONVERGENT ZONE SO WE COULD SEE SOME SCT ACTIVITY
DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINLY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
WEEK WITH SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF TO THE EAST. FURTHER ALOFT SE
TX WILL REMAIN IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS BETWEEN RIDGES. COMBINATION OF
BOTH SHOULD PROVIDE SOMEWHAT NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. SEABREEZE WILL
BE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ISO/SCT PRECIP EACH DAY WITH
OVERALL COVERAGE DEPENDENT ON SLIGHT VARIATIONS ON AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. 47
MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THIS FCST OF DIURNAL LANDBREEZE/SEABREEZE
CIRCULATIONS THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH LINGERS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S.. AS THE HIGH EDGES EAST...WE SHOULD SEE SLOWLY IN-
CREASING ONSHORE WINDS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THESE LIGHT/MOD-
ERATE SELY WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. 41
AVIATION...
AN ABUNDANCE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS HELPING
TO PRODUCE SOME SCT PCPN THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP THINGS QUIET FOR MOST OF OUR SITES THIS MORNING
(EXCEPT MAYBE GLS). HOWEVER SOME OF THE SHORT-TERM PROGS ARE SHOWING
AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE FOR THE SWRN PARTS OF THE REGION (WHERE MOISTURE
AND INFLOW ARE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE). AS SUCH MAY HAVE TO RECONSIDER
REINTRODUCING VCSH/VCTS FOR LBX/SGR THIS AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE VFR FOR
THE REST OF TODAY. 41
CLIMATE...
RAINFALL HAS NOW BEEN RECORDED IN HOUSTON ON JULY 4TH IN 11 OF
THE PAST 15 YEARS...AND 59 OF THE PAST 126. THE 0.48" RECORDED
YESTERDAY NEARLY MOVED IT INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST (5TH PLACE IS
0.51" SET IN 1898). 47
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 92 72 93 73 93 / 20 10 20 10 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 72 92 73 92 / 30 10 30 10 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 78 89 79 89 / 30 20 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
929 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR HAS TRIED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH VERY MOIST PWAT AIR REMAINING ACROSS
THE HOUSTON AREA. HIGH RES HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF BOTH SHOW
COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES
TOWARDS OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. AT 500 MB VERY WEAK RIDGING
REMAINS OVERHEAD WHICH SUPPORTS THE HIGH RES MODELS IN DEVELOPING
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT 12Z SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEAL FAIRLY
DEEP MOISTURE AT KCRP (PWAT 1.87"). FORECAST PACKAGE HAS THIS
COVERED. NO UPDATE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. 23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO NE/N PARTS
OF THE REGION AND GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY CONFIRMS. STILL HAVE
RESPECTABLE MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THE AREA AND WILL
GEAR HIGHER POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-10 AND WEST OF I-45 TODAY.
SEVERAL OUTFLOWS SEEN OFF THE UPPER COAST AND DISTINCT LANDBREEZE
IS SETTING UP CONVERGENT ZONE SO WE COULD SEE SOME SCT ACTIVITY
DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINLY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
WEEK WITH SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF TO THE EAST. FURTHER ALOFT SE
TX WILL REMAIN IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS BETWEEN RIDGES. COMBINATION OF
BOTH SHOULD PROVIDE SOMEWHAT NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. SEABREEZE WILL
BE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ISO/SCT PRECIP EACH DAY WITH
OVERALL COVERAGE DEPENDENT ON SLIGHT VARIATIONS ON AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. 47
MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THIS FCST OF DIURNAL LANDBREEZE/SEABREEZE
CIRCULATIONS THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH LINGERS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S.. AS THE HIGH EDGES EAST...WE SHOULD SEE SLOWLY IN-
CREASING ONSHORE WINDS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THESE LIGHT/MOD-
ERATE SELY WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. 41
AVIATION...
AN ABUNDANCE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS HELPING
TO PRODUCE SOME SCT PCPN THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP THINGS QUIET FOR MOST OF OUR SITES THIS MORNING
(EXCEPT MAYBE GLS). HOWEVER SOME OF THE SHORT-TERM PROGS ARE SHOWING
AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE FOR THE SWRN PARTS OF THE REGION (WHERE MOISTURE
AND INFLOW ARE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE). AS SUCH MAY HAVE TO RECONSIDER
REINTRODUCING VCSH/VCTS FOR LBX/SGR THIS AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE VFR FOR
THE REST OF TODAY. 41
CLIMATE...
RAINFALL HAS NOW BEEN RECORDED IN HOUSTON ON JULY 4TH IN 11 OF
THE PAST 15 YEARS...AND 59 OF THE PAST 126. THE 0.48" RECORDED
YESTERDAY NEARLY MOVED IT INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST (5TH PLACE IS
0.51" SET IN 1898). 47
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 92 72 93 73 93 / 20 10 20 10 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 72 92 73 92 / 30 10 30 10 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 78 89 79 89 / 30 20 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
314 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO
NO RAIN CHANCES. WE WILL LEAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DUE
TO A LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE AXIS/BOUNDARY. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE ISOLATED...BRIEF AND WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF SURFACE HEATING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AND
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
79
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1151 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON REPRESENTS
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.
IN GENERAL...VFR CLOUDS AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULT IS SIMPLE ONE LINE
TAFS FOR ALL AREA AIRPORTS.
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT WE WILL BECOME CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES AT LEAST
WEAK CAPPING PREVENTING THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. WITH NO
DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORMS...LEFT THUNDERSTORMS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BECAUSE ANY CAPPING IN PLACE IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...WILL HAVE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO AMDAR
SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO MONITOR FOR
AFTERNOON ISOLATED CONVECTION INITIATION. EVEN IF STORMS MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...WEAK WIND SHEAR SHOULD ENSURE SHORT LIVED STORMS WITH
VERY LOCALIZED IMPACTS. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 94 74 97 75 97 / 5 10 5 5 5
WACO, TX 93 71 95 72 96 / 10 10 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 90 68 94 69 94 / 5 10 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 94 71 96 70 97 / 10 10 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 92 68 95 69 96 / 5 10 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 93 75 96 76 96 / 5 10 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 91 71 94 71 95 / 5 10 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 92 70 94 72 95 / 5 10 5 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 92 70 95 71 95 / 10 10 5 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 70 96 69 98 / 10 10 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
91/79
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1151 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON REPRESENTS
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.
IN GENERAL...VFR CLOUDS AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULT IS SIMPLE ONE LINE
TAFS FOR ALL AREA AIRPORTS.
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT WE WILL BECOME CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES AT LEAST
WEAK CAPPING PREVENTING THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. WITH NO
DISCERNABLE FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORMS...LEFT THUNDERSTORMS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BECAUSE ANY CAPPING IN PLACE IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...WILL HAVE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO AMDAR
SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO MONITOR FOR
AFTERNOON ISOLATED CONVECTION INITIATION. EVEN IF STORMS MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...WEAK WIND SHEAR SHOULD ENSURE SHORT LIVED STORMS WITH
VERY LOCALIZED IMPACTS. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WANING AND SHOULD COME TO AN END IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WE DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH 9 PM OR SO WHERE A FEW CELLS ARE
LINGERING. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 80S AFTER SUNSET.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
A BROAD UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT ANCHORED OVER NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WERE PUSHING TOWARD 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH A 850-750MB THETA-E AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THERE WAS LITTLE TO NO CAP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW SUBTLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. RELATIVELY DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WAS FILTERING INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND CU
FIELDS WERE NOT IMPRESSIVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING FROM BRECKENRIDGE TO ABILENE WITH HIGH RES MODELS
INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH SUNSET WEST
THROUGH SOUTH OF DFW AND INCLUDING THE WACO/TEMPLE AREAS. WILL
MAINTAIN EARLIER UPDATED POP LOCATION AND TIMING WITH ACTIVITY
WANING QUICKLY BEFORE MOST FIREWORKS DISPLAYS GET GOING LATE THIS
EVENING.
THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS AND STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...
HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE NEAR THE 850-750 THETA-E
RIDGE FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S
WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THIS COMING WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING AND STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR ZERO ALL WEEK.
WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR DIURNAL AND ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MID WEEK AND COULD ALSO RESULT
IN A STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AT THAT TIME.
HAVE LEFT ANY LOW RAIN CHANCES OUT AT THIS TIME WITH TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING WITH REGARD TO SUBSIDENCE AND MOISTURE DEPTH.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 95 75 96 76 / 10 5 10 5 5
WACO, TX 71 94 72 95 73 / 20 10 10 5 5
PARIS, TX 68 91 69 93 71 / 10 5 10 5 5
DENTON, TX 70 94 73 96 73 / 10 10 10 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 67 92 70 95 71 / 10 5 10 5 5
DALLAS, TX 73 93 75 95 76 / 10 5 10 5 5
TERRELL, TX 69 92 71 94 73 / 10 5 10 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 70 93 72 93 72 / 10 5 10 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 70 93 70 93 71 / 30 10 10 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 68 94 70 96 70 / 20 10 10 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1136 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOMING BREEZY/GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY MID-
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS MAKING A RUN AT KCDS POST 00Z...BUT PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE ALONG WITH EXPECTED COVERAGE REMAIN FAR TOO LOW TO
WARRANT MENTION.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
SHORT TERM...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS TO PERSIST ANOTHER DAY
ACROSS THE FA BUT MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHICH IS ENOUGH TO PUMP OUT 1500-2000 J/KG OF
SURFACE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MINIMAL TO NO CAPPING. A NORTH-
SOUTH AXIS OF WEAKLY HIGHER THETA-E/MIXING RATIO VALUES WAS
OBSERVED IN RAP FORECAST FIELDS BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME
CONVECTION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT AND THERE IS STILL LITTLE TO NO FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. BASES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS IN THE LOWER 90S. RISING
HEIGHTS...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AND LESS MOISTURE WILL
ACT TO QUELL ANY LOW LEVEL EFFECTS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
A REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR SATURDAY
MORNING BUT SOME STRATUS MAY TRY TO EDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY
GIVING LESS CHANCES OF MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION REACHING THE FA.
HOWEVER A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER TOMORROW EVENING.
LONG TERM...
OTHER THAN THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF SOME STORMS TOMORROW EVENING...
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. BEST POPS
APPEAR TO STAY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SO KEPT BARELY SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. PAST THAT...RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED WEST TO NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WHICH KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHTS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT THROUGH THE FORECAST
WHICH MEANS TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DECENT MOISTURE LEVELS
REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 700
HPA WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP TOO
MUCH.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 87 63 89 64 92 / 10 10 10 20 0
TULIA 88 64 89 65 93 / 10 10 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 87 66 89 66 92 / 10 10 0 10 0
LEVELLAND 89 67 91 67 92 / 10 10 0 10 0
LUBBOCK 90 68 91 67 93 / 10 10 0 10 0
DENVER CITY 91 66 92 67 92 / 0 0 0 10 0
BROWNFIELD 90 67 92 67 92 / 10 10 0 10 0
CHILDRESS 91 69 93 71 96 / 20 20 10 10 0
SPUR 90 69 92 68 95 / 20 20 0 10 0
ASPERMONT 92 71 93 71 97 / 20 20 0 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
809 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.UPDATE...
MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS WE HAVE LOST A GOOD DEAL OF OUR DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. WE/RE STILL FAIRLY UNSTABLE...WE JUST DON/T HAVE GOOD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO OFFSET THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE
LARGE STRATUS DECK THAT SUCKED THE LIFE OUT OF THE STORMS. THE
ONLY ACTION AT THIS WRITING IS ACROSS NE/ERN IOWA. THIS IS IN AN
AXIS OF LARGE CAPE WITH A BETTER SHEAR PROFILE. THIS AREA ALSO
CLEARED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO TRY AND BRING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE 1 AM...BUT IT IS
EVEN LOOKING OVERDONE. I/VE BACKED OFF POPS TO CHANCE LEVELS GIVEN
TRENDS. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS OVER...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST CWA...BUT EVEN THAT WOULD BE A BIG STRETCH. THE IOWA
STUFF MAY CREEP NORTHEAST WITH TIME. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE OVER AT KMSN BY 11 PM AND IN
KMKE/KUES/KENW BY 1 AM. THE SEVERE THREAT HAS NEARLY ENDED. LOOK
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AS A TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
CONFIDENCE WANING ON SEVERE AS CLOUD COVER AND CAP HAVE REALLY
PUT A DAMPER ON THE POTENTIAL. CIN RUNNING ABOUT 150 PLUS ACRS SRN
WI. WEAKNESS IN THE CAP WITH BETTER HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT IN PORTIONS OF WC WI AND EC MN. 500 MILLIBAR SPEED MAX
IS NOW HEADING MORE TO OUR SOUTH RATHER THAN AT US. AND OF COURSE
THE PRIMARY VORT MAX WITH BETTER OOMPH IS UP ACROSS THE LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION. WITH THE CLOUDS CONTINUING TO HOLD FIRM
EVERYTHING WILL DEPEND ON HOW WELL ANY STORMS THAT FIRE IN THE
BETTER AIR AND IN PROXIMITY TO THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE SURVIVE
INTO OUR LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MESO MODELS DO SHOW STORMS
SURVIVING TOWARDS SRN WI WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND. HAVE
TWEAKED POPS DOWN ONLY SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE IN DECENT COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY HAS LOWERED. ANY STORMS THAT AFFECT THE AREA ARE
PROGGD TO DEPART AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO WITH FRONT SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OF WI.
MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SWIFT AND BROADLY CYCLONIC. AIRMASS NOT AS
HUMID IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY FRONT. SECONDARY SURFACE/850
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE NW CWA DURG THE AFTN SO BROUGHT SOME
SMALL POPS INTO THAT PART OF THE AREA. 925 TEMPS STILL SUGGEST
PLENTY OF 80S WITH A WEST WIND.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL USA
EARLY IN THE WEEK ON A 80 KNOT JET AND A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.
A WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES MON NT-TUE WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FROM KS TO MO
TO IL. THIS PUTS SRN WI BETWEEN THE TWO FOCUSED AREAS OF LIFT BUT
BELIEVE THE NRN CWA WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS TO CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS
THERE FOR MON NT. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCES IN THE SRN CWA FOR MON
NT AS SOME PVA AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH COOL FROPA
APPROACHING.
LINGERED LOW POPS FOR TUE DUE TO UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLDER AIR ALOFT. A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS OR STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA TUE NT
AND WED. NOT CONCERNED ABOUT INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON WED AS POLAR
TROUGH OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES WILL BE MOVING AWAY WITH RISING
HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FOR WED
NT-THU NT. A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
THEN NORTHWEST RESPECTIVELY WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS
FOR FRI-SAT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT THEN EXPECTED
FOR SUN. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH STRATUS HANGING
TOUGH. WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING UNTIL FRONT CLEARS LATER
ON IN THE NIGHT. STILL POTENTIAL FOR STORMS 00-04Z TIME FRAME AS
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT IS STILL A CATALYST. HOWEVER LOW CLOUD
COVER HAS PUT A DAMPER ON ANY WIDESPREAD SVR POTENTIAL. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP TAF SITES QUIET THEN FOR MONDAY.
MARINE...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED BETTER MIXING OF HIGHER
WIND GUSTS...BUT STILL A FEW HERE AND THERE ESPECIALLY TOWARDS
SHEBOYGAN. IN SOME CASES WINDS HAVE TURNED ONSHORE DUE TO LAKE
BREEZE FORMATION. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL
SCHEDULED END TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME HIGHER GUSTS THAT WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AND TO BLEND WITH GRB/LOT AND THEIR SCA.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1237 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT FIRED UP OVER NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
PER THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW CONTINUES ON A EAST-SOUTHEAST
TRACK...STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SO HAVE BEEN LOWERING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IN FACT...ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAY
RIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ENDS UP DRY AS THE TRENDS IN THE
05.12Z RAP...HRRR AND NAM SUGGEST. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A CAP
BUILDING INTO THE AREA AT 750MB THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...AIDING IN THAT DRY FORECAST.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION INSTIGATOR IS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH NORTHERN MN SEEN ON WATER VAPOR. PERHAPS THIS SHORTWAVE
COULD KICK SOMETHING OFF NORTH OF I-94 THIS AFTERNOON...OR IT MAY
END UP BEING COMPLETELY NORTH OF MY CWA AS MOST OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST. THUS...MAY NEED TO DO SOME REALIGNING OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO FOCUS THEM MORE UP TOWARDS TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING VERSUS FARTHER SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN CHANCES BOTH THIS MORNING...
AND AGAIN TONIGHT. 07Z RADAR LOOPS SHOW SOME SHOWERS/TSRA ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN AND NORTH CENTRAL IA. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO DRIER AIR. BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHERE A LARGER COMPLEX IS
GETTING FIRED UP OVER NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN ASSISTING
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL HAVE VARIED OPINIONS
ON HOW THE RAIN IS GOING TO PAN OUT TODAY BUT THE GENERAL THINKING
IS THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. COULD BE SOME ACTION THAT SURVIVES SO
MAY HAVE TO CARRY SOME SMALL CHANCES. LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN THE
RAIN THREAT THEN FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT
SENDS SOME WEAK IMPULSES INTO NORTHERN WI BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD HELP GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO
NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT CERTAIN IF THIS WILL MAKE IT INTO
NORTH CENTRAL WI BY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A
SHORT WAVE IN THE INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT RIGHT DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME. WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE IN
THE 3-4K J/KG RANGE WITH AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION OF STORMS
THAT SHOULD FIRE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY...CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A COUPLE MORE SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOK TO
RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW IS GRADUALLY BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO
THE TAF SITES. AN MVFR DECK HAS BEEN MANIFESTING ITSELF ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND SHOULD SPREAD INTO RST BY 20Z. BELIEVE THE
AID OF THE VALLEY AT LSE WILL HELP KEEP CEILINGS THERE VFR FOR THE
AFTERNOON. WITH LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT AND PERSISTENT MOISTURE
FLOWING INTO THE REGION...ANTICIPATING CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RST TO GO IFR AT LEAST FOR
A TIME BETWEEN 07-10Z. VISIBILITIES ALSO LIKELY TO GO DOWN TO MVFR
BY LATE EVENING. BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD GO VFR BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.
LOOKING AHEAD...A BAND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 20-22Z...THEN QUICKLY DROP
SOUTHEAST. HARD TO SAY IF THE TAF SITES WILL BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED
AT THIS TIME...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THESE TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO MUCH LOWER VISIBILITIES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO RUN HIGH...BUT THE RIVER IS NOW
PAST CREST EVERYWHERE IN OUR SERVICE AREA. OTHER TRIBUTARY CREEKS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE BACK TOWARD A MORE NORMAL BASE FLOW.
SOME CONCERN ON WHAT THE RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY WILL DO TO RIVER
LEVELS...BUT ANY STORMS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE AS THE
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD RENEWED FLOOD RISK.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
924 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT FIRED UP OVER NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
PER THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW CONTINUES ON A EAST-SOUTHEAST
TRACK...STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SO HAVE BEEN LOWERING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IN FACT...ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAY
RIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ENDS UP DRY AS THE TRENDS IN THE
05.12Z RAP...HRRR AND NAM SUGGEST. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A CAP
BUILDING INTO THE AREA AT 750MB THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...AIDING IN THAT DRY FORECAST.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION INSTIGATOR IS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH NORTHERN MN SEEN ON WATER VAPOR. PERHAPS THIS SHORTWAVE
COULD KICK SOMETHING OFF NORTH OF I-94 THIS AFTERNOON...OR IT MAY
END UP BEING COMPLETELY NORTH OF MY CWA AS MOST OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST. THUS...MAY NEED TO DO SOME REALIGNING OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO FOCUS THEM MORE UP TOWARDS TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING VERSUS FARTHER SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN CHANCES BOTH THIS MORNING...
AND AGAIN TONIGHT. 07Z RADAR LOOPS SHOW SOME SHOWERS/TSRA ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN AND NORTH CENTRAL IA. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO DRIER AIR. BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHERE A LARGER COMPLEX IS
GETTING FIRED UP OVER NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN ASSISTING
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL HAVE VARIED OPINIONS
ON HOW THE RAIN IS GOING TO PAN OUT TODAY BUT THE GENERAL THINKING
IS THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. COULD BE SOME ACTION THAT SURVIVES SO
MAY HAVE TO CARRY SOME SMALL CHANCES. LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN THE
RAIN THREAT THEN FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT
SENDS SOME WEAK IMPULSES INTO NORTHERN WI BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD HELP GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO
NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT CERTAIN IF THIS WILL MAKE IT INTO
NORTH CENTRAL WI BY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A
SHORT WAVE IN THE INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT RIGHT DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME. WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE IN
THE 3-4K J/KG RANGE WITH AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION OF STORMS
THAT SHOULD FIRE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY...CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A COUPLE MORE SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOK TO
RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
CURRENTLY WATCHING A COMPLEX OF SHRA/TS MARCHING EAST ACROSS IA.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AMID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. LOOKING
FOR THIS FEATURE TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...KEEPING BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS SOUTH OF I-90 AND AWAY
FROM KLSE/KRST TAF SITES TODAY. VFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE THE
ONLY RESULT VFR CLOUD COVER THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. PLAN ON SOME
LOWER CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AS INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WORKS INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EXPECTING
CLOUD BASES TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR RANGE BY 20Z AT KRST AND BY
01Z AT KLSE. COULD EVEN SEE CLOUD HEIGHTS DIP INTO IFR BRIEFLY AT
KRST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES IN THE
3-6SM RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO RUN HIGH...BUT THE RIVER IS NOW
PAST CREST EVERYWHERE IN OUR SERVICE AREA. OTHER TRIBUTARY CREEKS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE BACK TOWARD A MORE NORMAL BASE FLOW.
SOME CONCERN ON WHAT THE RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY WILL DO TO RIVER
LEVELS...BUT ANY STORMS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE AS THE
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD RENEWED FLOOD RISK.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1114 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014
UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE PALMER DVD WITH STORMS FIRING
ON A MOISTURE BOUNDARY FROM JEFFERSON AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES EASTWARD
ALONG I-70 TO THE KANSAS BORDER. 18Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN EL PASO AND
KIOWA COUNTY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY..AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO...KEEPING WEAK N-NE
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AGAIN
TODAY...WITH A VERY PALTRY CROP OF AFTERNOON TSRA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS INDICATED BY BAND OF
MODERATE CUMULUS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...AND KPUX
RADAR SHOWS SOME WEAK CONVECTION TRYING TO DEVELOP FROM THE PALMER
DIVIDE EAST TO CHIN COUNTY AS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR PUSHES
SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THIS EVENING...WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO
LOW SCT POPS IN PLACE FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SOME VERY HIGH
BASED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. N-NE STEERING FLOW
WILL TEND TO KEEP VALLEYS/EASTERN SLOPES DRY...WHILE OVER THE
PLAINS...ONLY SOME VERY LOW POPS ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
KIOWA COUNTY...WHERE A COUPLE TSRA COULD FORM NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO END QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING...AND WILL END POPS ALL AREAS BY MIDNIGHT.
ON MONDAY...AIR MASS CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVER THE AREA AS
UPPER HIGH DRIFTS INTO UTAH. SURFACE BOUNDARY AGAIN LURKS NEAR THE
PALMER DIVIDE...THOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE IS STILL BACK TO THE NORTH
OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. EXPECT ANOTHER RATHER PALTRY CROP OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH VERY WEAK STEERING
WINDS KEEPING ACTIVITY TIED THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...THOUGH WILL AGAIN UNDERCUT TOO HOT MOS
GUIDANCE MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. EXPECT ONGOING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND OUT INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING WITH DECREASING ACTIVITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE INCREASING
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING ON AREA BURN SCARS. THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRICKY IN REGARDS TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL REBUILD
EASTWARD OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL PULL LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
SOUTHERLY AND THE NAM AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE DRYLINE
OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE A
FEELING THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE ON THE PLAINS WITH A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY AND SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO
OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DEPENDING ON WHEN
STORMS FIRE AND IF A DRYLINE DOES DEVELOP. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH FLASH FLOODING AGAIN A RISK ON AREA BURN
SCARS.
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION
BY THURSDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOW
MUCH MOVEMENT AND COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES
CAUGHT UNDER THE RIDGE. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS BRING A DECENT
WAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY
LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SQUIRRELLY WINDS AT PUB AND COS DUE TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
WILL RELAX AND BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE
GENERALLY HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT COS AND PUB AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT THEN PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z...WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND A FEW
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IN SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE SITTING
TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE
MAIN QUESTION IS THE STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAY.
LOOKING AT THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS, THERE IS NOTHING THAT LOOKS
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE TODAY. CAPE IS GENERALLY LESS THAT 1000
JOULES, DCAPE IS RIGHT AROUND 500. THE NCAPE IS GENERALLY .1 OR
LESS, WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR EXCEPTIONS. 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES
ARE AROUND 5.5C/KM. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS JUST ABOVE 14000 FT. BUT
THE 500MB TEMPS ARE ABOUT -7.4C. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CAP. SO,
ALL IN ALL, LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL SEE PRETTY MUCH RUN OF THE MILL
THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE, HERE IS SOUTH FLORIDA, THERE SEEMS TO
ALWAYS BE A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS, SO WILL NOT RULE THEM
OUT. BUT THEY LOOK TO BE THE EXCEPTION, NOT THE RULE TODAY. OF
COURSE, THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING MAY TELL A DIFFERENT STORY. BUT FOR
NOW, WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST, MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. LOOKING AT THE
MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HRRR, IT SEEMS TO CONFIRM THE THOUGHT OF
RUN OF THE MILL TYPE STORMS. CURRENTLY, IT IS SHOWING MAX
DOWNDRAFT OF ONLY 2.5 M/S. ALSO, IT IS SHOWING THE MAIN THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE WESTERN LAKE REGION. IT DOES SHOW
MORE CAPE THAN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER, THAT JUST REINFORCES
THE THOUGHT OF THUNDERSTORMS BEING ABLE TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE THUNDERSTORM STRENGTHS MAY CHANGE DAY TO DAY, THE
WEATHER PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
NEXT WEEK, SO, EXPECT MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. SOME OF THEM MAY BECOME STRONG AT TIMES. TEMPERATURE
WISE, THAT ALSO LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY TYPICAL AS WELL, WITH HIGHS
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND 90 AND UP TO THE MID 90S FOR THE
INTERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE EAST COAST SITES
WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS
PUSHING INTO COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS MORNING FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. KEPT PRECIP MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR NOW BUT WILL
AMEND AS NECESSARY. EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT TYPICAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FOR THE SURROUNDING WATERS.
NO SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS, BUT MAY ALSO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 77 89 77 / 30 30 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 90 80 / 20 30 50 30
MIAMI 89 78 90 79 / 30 30 50 20
NAPLES 90 75 90 75 / 40 20 50 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
150 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE EAST COAST SITES
WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS
PUSHING INTO COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS MORNING FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. KEPT PRECIP MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR NOW BUT WILL
AMEND AS NECESSARY. EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
UPDATE...
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD BEEN OCCURRING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
OVER GULF WATERS AND THE FAR ATLANTIC WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE OFF AND ON
THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THESE WATERS FOR TONIGHT.
THERE ARE ALSO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MAINLAND OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST.
THEREFORE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE GOING DRY FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE IS ALSO SHOWING SOME SAHARAN DUST OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST
MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SAHARAN DUST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY. THIS DUST WILL HELP TO REDUCE THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...
THE POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A LITTLE BIT FOR MONDAY.
THE OTHER THING IS THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
MONDAY COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...DUE TO THE
DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE
EFFECTS OF THE SAHARAN DUST.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOTED
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER...IT WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER AND NO CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
AFTER AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WITH DEEP MOISTURE AROUND
OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND SOME COULD MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. DRIER
AIR AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MAY MOVE INTO
THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
SO SLIGHTLY LESS CONVECTION OVERALL IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR. THE DRIER AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM
THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING
BACK TO AROUND 2 INCHES. SO A TYPICAL WET SEASON PATTERN WILL
ENSUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
SAHARAN DUST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EAST. THIS DRIER AIR AND DUST MAY LIMIT CONVECTION AND
CAUSE HAZY SKIES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST BEFORE
THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE DRIER AIR MAY NOT MAKE IT TO THE WEST
UNTIL CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN. THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN COULD
LEAD TO STRONGER DOWNBURSTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUTSIDE
OF ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT IMPACT THE LOCAL WATERS...BOATING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE NEARLY IDEAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 78 90 77 / 30 30 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 79 90 79 / 20 30 60 20
MIAMI 90 79 90 79 / 20 30 60 20
NAPLES 90 75 91 76 / 40 10 50 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
325 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS INLAND
THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK FRONT COULD APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY..BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN POSITIONED BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WELL OFFSHORE AND LEE-SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT
REGION. WATER VAPOR AND RAP VORTICITY DATA SHOW A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND DURING PEAK
HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SURPRISINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE HINTS THAT DEWPOINTS WILL MIX
OUT...BUT NONE OF THE MODELS NOR THEIR ASSOCIATED MODEL OUTPUT
STATISTICS ARE SHOWING ANY MEANINGFUL CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RNFL.
GIVEN ITS EARLY SUMMER AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION LOOKS DECENT WITHIN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WE
ARE HESITANT TO CARRY A POP-FREE FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CONFINED ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. MENTIONABLE POPS WILL GENERALLY
BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH
GRIDDED VALUES ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INCLUDING
ALLENDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA REMAINING BELOW
MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S
INLAND WITH LOWER 90S-UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT TONIGHT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE INLAND LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS WELL. DESPITE THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO HELP KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FAIRLY WELL MIXED. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM/HUMID
NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S WELL
INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AND IN DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.
TUESDAY...THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF
PROMINENT ATLANTIC RIDGING...WHILE AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH
GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD BY THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND A VERY NOTABLE
CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH RAIN CHANCES AS A RESULT OF THE
DRY ENVIRONMENT AND LACK OF FORCING...CONFINING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO JUST A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THIS SMALL MENTION OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY ON TUESDAY. IF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD THIS DRIER FORECAST...ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION COULD
EVENTUALLY BE REMOVED ALL TOGETHER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER STRONG RIDGING AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...REACHING THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.
WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BY THE MID
WEEK...WITH THE INLAND SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN WILL BE
TRANSITIONING...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ONCE
AGAIN LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PREFER TO MENTION JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWLY IMPROVING MOISTURE
PROFILE. THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SENDING THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOWARD THE COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SUGGESTING THAT ISOLATED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION COULD OCCUR
AS A RESULT. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS DRIER FOR THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD...WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 90S.
THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME NOTABLY MORE ACTIVE...AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST SUPPORTS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE LINGERING INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH. DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY...RAISING CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL ADVERTISE RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG AND INLAND OF THE
SEABREEZE DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD. WILL STILL MAINTAIN 30 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCES OVERNIGHT GIVEN SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY
AS A RESULT OF LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT...INCREASING CLOUDS...AND
BETTER RAIN COVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE COASTLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...REINFORCED BY
STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG
THE EAST COAST. HAVE MAINTAINED RELATIVELY HIGH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACCORDINGLY...PEAKING AT NEAR 50 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONLY DOWN TO THE 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY...SUPPRESSED
SLIGHTLY BY THICK CLOUDS AND DECENT RAIN COVERAGE.
THE PATTERN WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EVIDENCE THAT
DEEP LAYER RIDGING COULD REGAIN SOME CONTROL. SOME FORM OF AN
INLAND SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...SUGGESTING THAT SOLID RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL JUSTIFIED
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
WARMER BY A DEGREE OR TWO...RANGING FROM 91 TO 94 DEGREES AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT KCHS/KSAV...BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION ATTM.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHORT-LIVED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASES WITHIN A DEVELOPING BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FT.
TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL SURGING APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH
INLAND. WINDS LOOK TO PEAK 15-20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS...4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. ATTM IT DOES APPEAR AS
THOUGH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...MAINTAINING
GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. NOCTURNAL SURGES ARE POSSIBLE
EACH NIGHT DUE TO A TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN AN INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WINDS COULD
INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT...MAINLY WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST
DURING THESE SURGES. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4
FT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MORE SOLID SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/WMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1207 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
CLOUDS TODAY CONTINUE TO COMPLICATE THIS EVENINGS CONVECTION
CHANCES. LOW LEVEL STRATUS WHICH FORMED IN THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
FEED ACROSS THE AREA HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FORECAST. ALOFT WE ARE ALSO DEALING WITH A SUFFICIENT
MID LEVEL CAP AT H700 WITH TEMPS FROM 10 TO 12C IN THE WARM SECTOR
THAT HAS TENDED TO KEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. COMBINED WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING COOL FRONT...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO TAKE OFF ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
MN/WESTERN WI. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT CAP SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG AND WEST OF I35 THIS EVENING...WHILE ERODING EAST OF THAT LINE
WITH THE HELP OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD BUILD BACK
WEST SOUTHWEST WITH TIME THROUGH 06Z. GENERALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SINCE THE CAP ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER AS
THE STORMS MOVE BACK WEST INTO IOWA. NEARLY ALL THE MODELS INCLUDING
THE HRRR FAVOR THIS SCENARIO. SO...HAVE TRIMMED POP/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FROM I35 WEST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG THE IA/MO
BORDER WHERE LATE MID EVENING SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION MAY LINGER
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AIRMASS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN IA STILL
RATHER UNSTABLE AND ANY STORMS THAT BUILD BACK TO THE WEST WILL
STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PRODUCE SVR WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
INITIALLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET MONDAY MORNING WITH
SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED IN MO/KS. SHORTWAVE WILL BE RAPIDLY
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ALL
INDICATE SURFACE MOISTURE RETURNING WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE
U60S/L70S BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF IOWA AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
FOCUS OF THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY IMPACT SOUTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF
THE STATE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS AGAIN MAY BE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATE WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
PRODUCE CONVECTION FARTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF CENTRAL IOWA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT WITH LESS
COVERAGE.
DRIER AIR WILL FITLER INTO THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. BOTH GFS AND EURO
CONTINUE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WITH NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE
THE NEXT APPRECIABLE THREAT OF CONVECTION WITH GFS TRYING TO
LINGER ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND AS IT LEAVES THE FRONT
IN VICINITY OF IA. EURO PUSHES THE BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...07/06Z
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
COLD FRONT NEAR A KDBQ TO KICL LINE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE
STATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME MVFR FOG AROUND
SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST IA LATE MON WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SPREADING THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL END TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR WED AND THU WITH GOOD VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...MS JUL 14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
128 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE, WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST TEMPS/SKY COVER. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES ~1020+MB HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH A
RIDGE AXIS TRAILING BACK INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. DISORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN VICINITY OF THE GA/FL COAST.
GOES WV IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY, WHICH WILL DRAW THE LOW OFF THE FL COAST
NORTHEAST JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD BRING NO
MORE THAN A PERIOD OF SCT- BKN CLOUDS TO NE NC/FAR SE VA OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S...TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW, RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY
CONDITIONS MONDAY. A MODEST RISE IN DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED AS SSW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW
VALUES TO FALL/REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH
THE LOW/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST TUESDAY...AND WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AS SECONDARY ENERGY WRAPS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH. THIS WILL DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC BY LATER WEDNESDAY. ANY CONVECTION TUESDAY WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HAVE DIFFICULTY DRIFTING E AS THE THERMAL
PROFILE WILL LIKELY BE TOO STABLE...AND THERE WILL BE A LACK OF ANY
SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER. SOMEWHAT MORE OF A TRIGGER IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO ABOVE A 20-30% POP AT THIS
TIME.
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH MAXIMA RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 100 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN INTO THE MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED UPPER TROF ALONG THE ERN USE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
AMPLIFY SOME TOWARD THE LATER PERIODS. THIS HELPS TO PUSH A FRONT
DOWN INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THE FRONT JUST STALLS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND GFS ENSEMBLE BOTH SHOW A
SIMILAR PATTERN. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS WHETHER THE FRONT COULD
ACTUALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ONE OF THE DAYS BUT FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTHEAST. ALSO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR TO CONTINUE TODAY. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS PER STLT MAINLY SE
PORTIONS SHOULD CLEAR OFF ERLY THIS MORNG. SCT CU EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTN. WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE DAY FROM THE
S/SW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTN.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA IN THE BAY TO 10 AM/14Z AND ADDED THE LOWER JAMES
RIVER. HRRR AND RUC VERIFYING WELL AND WINDS CONTINUE NEAR 20
KNOTS THROUGH 12Z THEN DROP OFF SHARPLY. ADDED LOWER JAMES AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM S TO SW. NE PORTION OF BAY ZONES HAVE THE
STRONGEST WINDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HI PRES WAS CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLC CST LATE THIS AFTN...AND
WILL BECOME ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST THRU WED. HAVE
MAINTAINED A SCA FOR THE CHES BAY ZNS THRU 1 AM TNGT OR 4 AM EARLY
MON MORNG...DUE TO INCREASING S WINDS CLOSE TO 20 KT. SSW WINDS 10
TO 20 KT WILL THEN PREVAIL OVR THE WTRS MON THRU WED...DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF HI PRES ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST AND A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FM THE WNW. SEAS OVR THE CSTL WTRS
WILL AVG 3-4 FT WITH WAVES OVR THE CHES BAY AVGG 2-3 FT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE WTRS LATE WED THRU FRI.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...TMG/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
444 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR PUSHING COLD FRONT AND ASSOC CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING
EAST OF THE CWA. WNW FLOW UPSTREAM ALSO REVEALS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
OF NOTE...ONE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER ND...ANOTHER PRODUCING
CONVECTION OVER SRN ALBERTA AND A THIRD ROTATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
FROM NRN SASKATCHEWAN. A COUPLE OF THESE UPSTREAM WAVES WILL IMPACT
WEATHER TONIGHT OVER UPPER MI.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AS
Q-VECT DIV SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
MIXING OF 12-14C 8H TEMPS TO THE SFC UNDER SUNNY SKIES SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND EAST TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE WI BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING WITH THE
ADVANCE OF Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES
DIVING SE FROM SRN ALBERTA AND NRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NRN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY. ENVIRONMENT OF MLCAPE 200-500 J/KG SHOULD
SUPPORT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA INTO NRN WI AND SW UPPER MI.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY JUST SOUTH INTO NRN WI IN
CYCLONIC FLOW OF MID-LVL TROUGH...MODELS SHOW Q-VECT CONV SPREADING
NE THROUGH THE CWA SO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD HIGHER CHC POPS FOR
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA NE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. UNDER NE-E
FLOW...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW
THROUGH NE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 S
SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
THE SFC STRONGEST LOW AT 12Z TUESDAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL LIKELY BE OVER N LAKE MI AND FAR NW LOWER MI...WITH THE BROAD
500MB TROUGH KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER SET UP ACROSS THE AREA.
UNLIKE THE WARM MUGGY AIR OF THIS MORNING...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING AROUND 17C...850MB TEMPS AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 10C.
THE BEST CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
LAKE MI TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW
FAR N THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL BE ABLE TO INVADE...WITH THE
SMALLER SCALE SOLUTIONS GOING NEARLY DRY FOR MONDAY FOR ALL BUT THE
S CENTRAL PORTIONS OF UPPER MI. AT THIS POINT...AROUND 0.2IN OF
PRECIP IS FCST IS FCST FOR S CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
ANOTHER ELONGATED WAVE IN THE 500MB NW FLOW WILL PUSH IN OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS EACH SYSTEM TO ROUND THE 500MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY LOOSES
MORE AND MORE MOISTURE. LOOK FOR THE 500MB TROUGH TO FINALLY EXIT E
OF UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DRY BUT COOL WEATHER WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS STILL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE SFC HIGH EDGES CLOSER TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WARMER AIR ON S-SW
WINDS WILL RETURN. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES...AS 850MB TEMPS RISE BACK TO AROUND 13C. A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER THE W HALF FRIDAY...AND EXPANDING TO MUCH
OF UPPER LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING W
TO E OVERNIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST
MODELS AT THIS POINT TO RESULT IN LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY-SUNDAY. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS APPROX 6HRS FASTER THAN
THE GFS TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI...EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW OVER FAR N ONTARIO/S LAKE HURON. A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DOESN/T LOOK TO BE IN THE CARDS FOR NOW...AS
COOLER W TO NW FLOW RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE
MORE 70 DEGREE DAYS AHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL SITES MON MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. NEXT DISTURBANCE COMES IN AND BRINGS SOME MID
CLOUDS MON NIGHT AND PUT IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT IWD MON EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
LINGERING FOG OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF
ANY STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS/. LOW PRESSURE NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIFT TOWARD JAMES BAY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI TONIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY WILL SINK
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
439 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR PUSHING COLD FRONT AND ASSOC CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING
EAST OF THE CWA. WNW FLOW UPSTREAM ALSO REVEALS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
OF NOTE...ONE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER ND...ANOTHER PRODUCING
CONVECTION OVER SRN ALBERTA AND A THIRD ROTATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
FROM NRN SASKATCHEWAN. A COUPLE OF THESE UPSTREAM WAVES WILL IMPACT
WEATHER TONIGHT OVER UPPER MI.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AS
Q-VECT DIV SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
MIXING OF 12-14C 8H TEMPS TO THE SFC UNDER SUNNY SKIES SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND EAST TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE WI BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING WITH THE
ADVANCE OF Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES
DIVING SE FROM SRN ALBERTA AND NRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NRN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY. ENVIRONMENT OF MLCAPE 200-500 J/KG SHOULD
SUPPORT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA INTO NRN WI AND SW UPPER MI.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY JUST SOUTH INTO NRN WI IN
CYCLONIC FLOW OF MID-LVL TROUGH...MODELS SHOW Q-VECT CONV SPREADING
NE THROUGH THE CWA SO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD HIGHER CHC POPS FOR
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA NE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. UNDER NE-E
FLOW...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW
THROUGH NE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 S
SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...WITH TYPICAL MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON MAGNITUDE AND PATH OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE ALONG OR S/SW OF THE WRN AND
SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR THESE LOCATIONS
FOR THE BEST POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. CONTINUED TO ONLY HAVE
CHANCE POPS DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED THAN WITH
THE PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE...SO CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF EVEN LOWER POPS
/SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE/ DURING THIS TIME.
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE MORE LIMITED WITH TIME...SO ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRI AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AFTER RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER
TUE AND WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S...THE RIDGE WILL BRING
A WARMING TREND AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S /OR EVEN THE
LOW 80S/ INLAND ON FRI.
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRI THROUGH
SAT...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. SUN COULD SEE SOME PRECIP IF THE ECMWF FORECAST VERIFIES
IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE NEAR THE CWA...BUT THE GFS HAS A DRY
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL SITES MON MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. NEXT DISTURBANCE COMES IN AND BRINGS SOME MID
CLOUDS MON NIGHT AND PUT IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT IWD MON EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
LINGERING FOG OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF
ANY STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS/. LOW PRESSURE NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIFT TOWARD JAMES BAY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI TONIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY WILL SINK
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
134 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DOWNSTREAM FROM A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND WRN PLAINS. A PROMINENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NW ONTARIO TO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NE MN FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR CYPL.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS COVER OVER THE REGION HAS INHIBITED DIABATIC HEATING
AND KEPT MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE OVER MAINLY THE
WRN THIRD OF UPPER MI. AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER NE WI NEAR TO IMT
AND NEAR MNM WAS SUPPORTED BY WEAK TO MODERATE 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV AND 30 KNOT WSW 850-750 INFLOW PUSHING MUCAPE VALUES TO 1K
J/KG. ADDITIONAL STRONG TSRA WERE LOCATED OVER NE MN WERE LOCATED
NEAR THE COLD FRONT.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH SOME LATE AFTERNOON CLEARING
OVER WRN UPPER MI...ADDITIONAL HEATING MAY BOOST MLCAPE VALUES INTO
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA
BTWN 21Z-24Z...SCT/NMRS TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THAT
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...SUPPORTED BY 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE
35-40 KNOT RANGE. THE SHRA/TSRA WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ERN CWA
BTWN 00Z-03Z AND END OVER THE CNTRL CWA...AS THE COLD FRONT
ADVANCES. EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST.
MONDAY...EXPECT DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSRA WAS INCLUDED OVER THE FAR SW CWA AS A WEAK SHRTWV NEAR
THE AREA IN CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH OVER NRN
MANITOBA AND NRN ONTARIO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...WITH TYPICAL MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON MAGNITUDE AND PATH OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE ALONG OR S/SW OF THE WRN AND
SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR THESE LOCATIONS
FOR THE BEST POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. CONTINUED TO ONLY HAVE
CHANCE POPS DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED THAN WITH
THE PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE...SO CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF EVEN LOWER POPS
/SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE/ DURING THIS TIME.
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE MORE LIMITED WITH TIME...SO ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRI AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AFTER RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER
TUE AND WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S...THE RIDGE WILL BRING
A WARMING TREND AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S /OR EVEN THE
LOW 80S/ INLAND ON FRI.
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRI THROUGH
SAT...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. SUN COULD SEE SOME PRECIP IF THE ECMWF FORECAST VERIFIES
IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE NEAR THE CWA...BUT THE GFS HAS A DRY
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL SITES MON MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. NEXT DISTURBANCE COMES IN AND BRINGS SOME MID
CLOUDS MON NIGHT AND PUT IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT IWD MON EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO MONDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONG
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS/. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS N MINNESOTA AND W
ONTARIO WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND N LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...BEFORE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY. BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT...AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SINK
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1208 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE EAST AT ABOUT 20
KTS ACROSS MN TODAY...AND AT 3PM WAS IN THE PROCESS OF WORKING
ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES. MORNING CLOUDS SLOWED DOWN THE WARMING IN
THE TWIN CITIES...BUT THERE IS STILL HOPE FOR OUR FIRST 90 DEGREE
TEMP THIS YEAR AS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 2 HOUR WINDOW WHERE WE CAN
STILL WARM BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THE CAA KICKS IN. WE HAVE SEEN
PLACES LIKE REDWOOD FALLS...GLENCOE...AND NEW ULM HIT 90 IN THIS
ZONE AND IT WILL BE HITTING THE TWIN CITIES STILL DURING PEAK
HEATING BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM...SO DON/T GIVE UP HOPE ON THAT FIRST
90 JUST YET!
AS FOR STORM POTENTIAL...ACTIVITY OVER WI HAS BEEN ELEVATED...WITH
THE ATMO STILL CAPPED WITH RESPECT TO SFC BASED CONVECTION PER THE
STABLE CU FIELD /AT 230 PM/ STILL IN PLACE OVER WHAT IS A VERY JUICY
WARM SECTOR...WHERE DEWPS HAVE BEEN COMMONLY RISEN UP INTO THE MID
70S. STILL LOTS OF DISAGREEMENT WITH WHETHER OR NOT THIS FRONT WILL
EVEN GENERATE CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT...ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WRN MN AS EVIDENCED
BY DRYING ON WATER VAPOR BACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...PREFER THE IDEA
THE HRRR AND MEMBER1 OF THE 15Z HOPWRF SHOW WITH A SCT LINE OF
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AROUND 20Z AND QUICKLY SPREADING
EAST. THIS WOULD PLACE THE THUNDER THREAT MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
AN ALBERT LEA TO RICE LAKE LINE. SFC WINDS HAVE VEERED CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MINIMAL TORNADO THREAT...BUT
2K-4K J/KG OF MLCAPE...H7-H5 LAPSE RATES UP OVER 7 DEG C/KM...AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
WIND/HAIL THREAT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE IOWA BORDER WHERE
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE BETTER.
WILL SEE SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...BUT CONSISTENT NW WINDS WILL
BRING IN DEWPS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FOG
POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NRN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP INTO NODAK TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NODAK THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY SEND
SHOWERS/STORMS TOWARD CENTRAL MN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MORE ROBUST STORM COVERAGE OVER THE MPX CWA IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT STRONG SASKATCHEWAN WAVE
MOVES INTO WRN MN. FOR THIS WAVE...PREFERRED A GEM/ECMWF/GFS BLEND
FOR ITS TIMING. THE NAM IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH THE
WAVE...PLACING IT OVER ERN MN BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AS
OPPOSED TO WRN MN AS THE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING BASED ON THEIR QPF
FIELDS...BUT THE CAMS SHOW ACTIVITY BEING NOTICEABLY MORE SCATTERED
OVER MN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THERE
REALLY IS NO STRONG SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO THE CAMS ARE SIMPLY GENERATING CONVECTION WHERE THEY
CAN DEVELOP ENOUGH INSTABILITY.
THOUGH NW FLOW IS EXPECTED...1.5-2.5K J/KG OF MLCAPE COMBINED WITH
50-60 KTS OF BULK SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SEVERE
THREAT. HODOGRAPHS FOR MONDAY ARE MOSTLY LONG STRAIGHT
LINES...INDICATING THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL FROM
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. IF ENOUGH STORMS CAN INITIATE...WE WOULD
LIKELY END UP WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS OR TWO THAT WOULD HAVE A WIND
TREAT AS WELL. HIGHER LCLS /DUE TO THE DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
EXPECTED/ ALONG WITH THE SHEAR BEING MAINLY OF THE SPEED VARIETY
/WITH LITTLE DIRECTION CHANGE/ WILL GREATLY LIMIT ANY TORNADO
THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
WHILE THE BEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 21-00Z
IN WESTERN MN...EASTERN MN WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT THUNDER
BETWEEN 00-03Z...AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER IN WESTERN WI. THE MID-
LEVEL DRYING ARRIVES QUICKLY BETWEEN 03-06Z IN THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...SO THE PRECIP SHOULD GET QUICKLY SHUFFLED OFF TO
THE EAST LATE TOMORROW EVENING.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING INTO THE PLAINS AND
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
BREEZY...OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FLATTENS AS IT
SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER WITH RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING IN WESTERN MN IN THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL IMPROVE A FEW DEGREES. THE EAST WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF
AN 850MN COLD POCKET CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MODEL
CONSISTENCY ISN`T AS GOOD LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WEAK WAVES TO TRACK
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES REMAIN TOO DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT WITH EACH MODEL SHOWING SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
TIMING AND LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT - DID NOT REALLY ALTER THE POPS
MUCH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMATE NORMALS DURING THE PERIOD.
AFTER MONDAY...THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL PROBABILITY FOR PRECIP ARRIVES
ON THURSDAY WHEN THE FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE W-SW AND WARM
ADVECTION ARRIVES FROM THE DAKOTAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOSTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BOUTS OF
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SKC IS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. A LEADING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING
SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA TOWARD DAWN...WITH ACTIVITY
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A LOT OF THE
HI RES MODELS KEEP THE TSRA SCATTERED WHICH MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST TIMING AT ANY GIVEN TAF LOCATION. WHILE IT IS LIKELY ALL
TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY AT SOME POINT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON MORE PRECISE DETAILS
AT THIS TIME.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF INSTANCES OF IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA. KEPT MOST
OF THE PERIOD DRY UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INCREASES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 TO 20 KT.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5 TO 15 KT.
THU...VFR. CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT. WIND S 10 TO 15 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1145 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 917 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
Watching the convection to our north along the approaching cold
front this evening. Model guidance in general agreement that the
front will reach Quincy area between 06Z and 09Z and settle across
the St. Louis area between 12Z and 15Z. Have better confidence
that broken line of thunderstorms will reach northern parts of the
CWA and have increased POPs to match with neighboring offices.
Oherwise, chance/scattered POPs should cover the situation further
south toward St. Louis.
CVKING
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
Still expect thunderstorms to redevelop along the cold front
where MLCAPES are 5000+ J/kg across Iowa. These storms should move
southeast into the northern half of the CWA during the late
evening and overnight hours as both the NAM/GFS are in good
agreement that shortwave trough currently over the upper Midwest
will move in sync with the cold front across the CWA tonight.
Latest runs of HRRR are showing that storms will dissipate before
reaching the CWA, but the amount of forcing and instability
warrant keeping at least the chance pops already going in the
forecast. The simulated reflectivity of the explicit runs of the
WRF show a line of storms moving southward across the entire CWA
between 02-08Z. Also can`t rule out a few severe thunderstorms
later this evening given the amount of instability and deep layer
shear forecast to be around 30kts.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
(Monday and Tuesday)
Main concern will be the potential for a few severe thunderstorms on
Monday afternoon and night.
GFS and NAM both show that upper flow will be west northwesterly on
Monday with the front becoming stalled by midday across the central
part of the CWA. Temperatures in the lower to middle 90s and
dewpoints in the 70s will cause the atmosphere to become very
unstable under 7+C/km mid level lapse rates. Scattered
thunderstorms may develop along the front as the CINH erodes during
the day. Couldn`t rule out that any storms that develop Monday
afternoon would be severe because of the amount of the instability.
Thunderstorms will be more likely on Monday night when a shortwave
trough moves southeast through the upper flow. A complex of
thunderstorms will likely move southeast through the area along the
front. This complex may be severe given deep layer sheer 40+ kts
and produce locally heavy rainfall rates given precipitable waters
over 2 inches. Damaging winds appear to be the primary
threat...though large hail and isolated tornadoes are also
possible.
By Tuesday the cold front will still be over the south part of the
CWA during the early afternoon hours. There may still be some
chance for a few severe thunderstorms along the front as they
initiate before the it moves south of the CWA by 00Z.
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
GFS and ECMWF still show that the cold front will extend from the
Mid South back into the central Plains Wednesday and Thursday
leaving us dry. 850mb temps are progged to be in the 12-16C range
with southeasterly winds from the retreating surface high which will
bring us below normal temperatures. The front will begin to move
north as a warm front Friday into Saturday which will increase
temperatures and thunderstorm chances. The GFS and ECMWF both show
a cold front dropping southeastward in northwest flow by next
Sunday, so will keep the chance of rain going into the latter half
of next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
Activity fired up ahead of cold front over Iowa and is tracking
southeast towards forecast area as of 04z Monday. It is falling
apart and timing/coverage is still hard to pin down, so kept vicinity
thunderstorm mention at KUIN with vicinity shower mention for rest
of taf sites. Otherwise, south to southwest winds to veer to the
west with frontal passage. Front to move through KUIN by 12z
Monday, KCOU by 13z Monday and metro area by 14z Monday. Then
front will stall out along I-70 corridor with activity refiring
along it by late this afternoon and into the evening hours. Once
again timing and coverage hard to pin down so just kept vicinity
thunderstorm mention for now. With front stalled out overhead,
winds to keep switching back and forth from west to southwest
until front is finally pushed further south.
Specifics for KSTL:
Activity fired up ahead of cold front over Iowa and is tracking
southeast towards forecast area as of 04z Monday. It is falling
apart and timing/coverage is still hard to pin down, so kept vicinity
shower mention for metro area after 09z Monday. Otherwise, south to
southwest winds to veer to the west with frontal passage. Front to
move through metro area by 14z Monday. Then front will stall out
along I-70 corridor with activity refiring along it by 00z Tuesday.
Once again timing and coverage hard to pin down so just kept
vicinity thunderstorm mention for now. With front stalled out
overhead, winds to keep switching back and forth from west to
southwest until front is finally pushed further south, after 08z
Tuesday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1136 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEVADA WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO SWRN CANADA. A
SECONDARY HIGH WAS OVER NERN ALASKA WITH A SHARPER AMPLITUDE RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A TANDEM
OF DECENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WERE PRESENT FROM NORTHERN
ALBERTA INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA. DOWNSTREAM OF THESE SHORTWAVES...50+
METER HT FALLS WERE NOTED OVER NRN MN...SWRN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. ANOTHER AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS NOTED OVER THE
OZARKS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD PASSED THROUGH
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF NOONTIME AND WAS ORIENTED
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR FORT MORGAN COLORADO...TO MCCOOK TO SIOUX
CITY IA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT...RANGED FROM 86 AT VALENTINE
TO 95 AT IMPERIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT OVER NEBRASKA HAS PASSED THROUGH ALL OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT REMAIN IN THE
60S...WITH SB CAPE OF 2K J/KG OR HIGHER FROM ABOUT KOGA TO KBBW AND
AREAS TO THE SOUTH...LAPS SOUNDINGS AND SPC/S MESOANALYSIS PAGE
SUGGEST A SLIGHT CAP REMAINS IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
CAP AND A LACK OF FORCING TO HELP GET ANY ACTIVITY GOING DON/T
EXPECT ANY STORMS LOCALLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF THE FRONT CIN HAS
DIMINISHED SO COULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS. DON/T EXPECT
THE FRONT TO LIFT NORTH SO HAVE NOT RE-INTRODUCED ANY CHANCES TO THE
AREA THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT.
LATER TONIGHT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM...GFS AND TO A POINT
THE RAP SHOW A VERY WEAK PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE SAME AREA WILL SEE POOLING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S AND THERE IS SUGGESTION
OF A BIT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ROUGHLY IN THE
VICINITY OF A LINE FROM KBBW TO KEAR AND KHGI. CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH
ON ANY OF THIS CONVECTION OCCURRING...NOR HAVING IT OCCUR IN THE
FORECAST AREA BUT FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH SIGNALS TO AT LEAST WARRANT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THEN...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NORTH OF MONTANA WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND APPROACH NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA IN THE MORNING.
WITH THE RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT...WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD
1-2K J/KG OF SB CAPE IN THE MORNING AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASING WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING IN CAN/T DISCOUNT A FEW STORMS
GAINING STRENGTH TO BE A STRONGER STORM. AT THIS TIME DON/T FORESEE
ANY SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS AND THEN
FOCUSES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS WHERE THE FRONT
FROM TODAY WILL REMAIN. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT
THIS POINT...CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL HAVE INCREASED A BIT SO
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE. STILL NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOCALLY AS THE PRIMARY
CONVERGENCE AREA LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ORIENTED SOUTH OVER THE FRONT. OVER THESE
AREAS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGH ONCE AGAIN...AT 120 TO
140 PERCENT OF NORMAL. HIGH WATER CONTENT...ALONG WITH A WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED FRONT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT COULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL TRAINING STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN.
AGAIN...THINK THE HIGHER THREAT THOUGH WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THE MID RANGE ARE LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN MONDAY
NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO KANSAS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A THREAT FOR PCPN IN THE EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY EVENING...AS
DECENT MID LEVEL LIFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS AREA IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE FORECAST AREA PER THE GFS SOLN
COMPARED TO THE NAM SOLN AS THE SURFACE FRONT IS FURTHER NORTH
COMPARED TO THE NAM SOLN. THIS PROBABLY HAS TO DO WITH THE STRENGTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH THE NAM IS STRONGER WITH
COMPARED TO THE GFS SOLN. INHERITED FCST HAD CHANCE POPS LINGERING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. POPS WERE LOWERED MONDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THE FASTER NAM SOLN...AS WELL AS MID LEVEL LIFT SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AS FOR THE THREAT FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...THE
BEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE EAST AND SERN
CWA WHERE SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE STRONG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELEMENTS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE IN THE EAST AND
SERN CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AS
WELL...ELIMINATING THE THREAT FOR PCPN TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST WHICH WILL GIVE A
BOOST TO OVERNIGHT LOWS WEST OF NORTH PLATTE. ANY PCPN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS...WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY. RIDGING ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB AND WILL APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TSRAS WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS SE FROM THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS INVOF THE BLACK
HILLS WEDS AFTN. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ANY STORMS WHICH
INITIATE MAY PUSH INTO THE NWRN CWA WEDS AFTN/EVENING. WILL KEEP
POPS ISOLATED FOR NOW AS MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND NWRN CWA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS USUALLY ALLOWS
A PLETHORA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE.
TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...SO
WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH PLENTY OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...SO
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT THE THE THREAT FOR STORMS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...UNDERCUT THE
LATEST MEX GUIDANCE AS IT CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM COMPARED TO THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS...AS WELL AS THE ECMX EURO GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS MT/ND MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPING FROM 15Z ONWARD...MAINLY ALONG
HIGHWAY 20 AND AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. TSTM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FCST AREA 03Z-06Z MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
224 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A DRY WEEKEND...THE WEATHER IS ABOUT TO BECOME MORE
UNSETTLED. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SPRINKLES FELL APART ON THEIR WAY IN AS
EXPECTED...MAINLY JUST VIRGA. GRIDS TWEAKED TO KEEP UP WITH CLOUD
DECK ETC. OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE CHANCE FROM THE UPDATE DONE
EARLIER.
530 PM UPDATE...
AMPED SKY GRIDS UP TO ACCOUNT FOR THICKER-THAN-EXPECTED WING OF
CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TWIN TIERS AT THIS TIME.
INITIAL NORTHEASTERN PORTION SHOWS UP IN RUC13 RH FIELDS AROUND
500MB. THEN REMAINDER OF THICKER CLOUD SHIELD NOW SPREADING FROM
WESTERN TO CENTRAL PA...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NEPA AND PERHAPS SOME
OF THE NY/PA BORDER ZONES LATER THIS EVENING AS PER 700MB RH FIELD
OF THE RUC13. VIRGA IS ALSO SHOWING UP ON OUR RADAR
CURRENTLY...YET LOW LEVELS ARE MUCH TOO DRY FOR IT TO REACH THE
GROUND...AT LEAST INITIALLY. WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
INBOUND...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES INCLUDING
BRADFORD PA...THE CITY NOT THE COUNTY. I DO NOT SEE THAT GETTING
MUCH PAST THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INCLUDING THE WIND FARMS OF
BRADFORD PA...THE COUNTY NOT THE CITY...AND PERHAPS NEAR RICKETTS
GLEN...AS IT ENCOUNTERS MINOR DOWNSLOPING ANYWHERE BEYOND THAT AS
WELL AS CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MENTION OF SPRINKLES HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AROUND THOSE AREAS...OTHERWISE LOOKING TOTALLY DRY /AND
EVEN FOR THOSE LOCATIONS GETTING A SPRINKLE...OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE/.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK FROM OHIO ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING. SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA... ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PA... BUT THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE TOO
DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE NOW BLOWING UP CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM IN
UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THAT WAVE GETS
HERE...BUT 18Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM HAVE IT SOMEWHERE AROUND FINGER
LAKES 12Z-15Z. THE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT MAKES THE FORECAST CHALLENGING FOR DETAILS OF
EVOLUTION FOR CONVECTION MONDAY. OVERALL...A SCENARIO WITH MODEST
CAPE BUT GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR. OUR LOCAL ANALOG TOOL COMPARING
FORECAST CONDITIONS TO PAST EVENTS...RETURNS CASES FEATURING
PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LITTLE HAIL /UNDERSTANDABLE GIVEN
THE NARROWER LOOK TO THE CAPE IN THE SOUNDINGS/. HOWEVER...ALSO A
COUPLE ISOLATED SUPERCELL-WEAK TORNADO CASES. THERE IS SOME
TURNING IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE NAM SOUNDING...AND
NOTABLY...0-1 KM HELICITY INCREASES TO OVER 150 M2/S2 BY MONDAY
EVENING...A THRESHOLD THAT LOCALLY HAS SHOWN TO BE IMPORTANT IN
PAST CASES. SPC MAINTAINS MOST OF OUR AREA AS SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
MONDAY...AND MENTIONS THAT ANY MORE RIGHTWARD MOVING INDIVIDUAL
CELLS COULD GAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...WHICH MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE ABOVE ENVIRONMENT. WITH THAT WOULD COME ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO.
FORECAST UPDATED TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF MAIN CONVECTION BY A
FEW HOURS...WHILE ALSO ADDING MENTION OF STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND
EASTERN CANADA. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY... SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RAPID INCREASE
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MID 60S DEW POINTS BY AFTERNOON. THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE MONDAY WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN THE INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY
UPSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN... HOWEVER AT THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING
AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE WHICH WOULD ALLOW CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. 0-3 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-35 KTS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ORGANIZED LINES OF CONVECTION WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. BASED ON
THIS WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL IN THE
HWO. PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND
2.0 INCHES SO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
AND WE ARE GOING WITH POPS AROUND 70 PERCENT FROM AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
AFTER A LULL MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT ONCE AGAIN THAT CAPE VALUES WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ONCE AGAIN
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST AS LARGE ON TUESDAY AS MONDAY AND ONCE AGAIN
THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THESE
STORMS INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
THE MAIN SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWERING DEW POINTS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ONLY
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A FEW SHOWERS
MAY YET DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT POPS WILL BE LOWER THAN
MONDAY OR TUESDAY AND THE SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE
LOWER DUE TO LOWER DEW POINTS AND LESS INSTABILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. DRY FRIDAY AND PROBABLY
SATURDAY THEN BACK TO CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL.
230 PM SUN UPDATE...
ON THE LARGE-SCALE...WRN CONUS/WRN CANADIAN RIDGING AND A L/WV
TROUGH FROM HUDSON`S BAY SWD OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL SET THE PATN
THIS PD. HOW AMPLIFIED THIS CONFIGURATION IS...THOUGH WILL VARY
OVER TIME. IN GENERAL...THIS TRANSLATES TO AN ABSENCE OF ANY TRULY
HOT WX (HIGHS FROM THE 70S-MID 80S)...WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
ROLLING THROUGH ABT EVERY 2-3 DAYS.
AS FOR THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX...LINGERING SHWRS/TSTMS ARE PSBL AT
THE START OF THE PD WED NGT-THU...AS A NRN STREAM S/WV AND SFC
COLD FRNT SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST. FRI THROUGH MOST OF SAT
LOOK RAIN-FREE AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE PT...WITH THE ERN TROUGH
TEMPORARILY RELAXING. FOR THE LATTER PTN OF NEXT WEEKEND...SHWRS
AND TSTMS MAY WELL RETURN...AS A RELOADING OF THE L/WV TROUGH AXIS
UPSTREAM HERALDS THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT S/WV...ALG WITH A SFC
WARM FRNT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH SCT TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME INITIAL SCT
-SHRA MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING BUT NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE RESTRICTIONS.
PROB30 CB GROUPS AT THE MORE PROBABLE TIMES OF CONVECTION FOR THE
TERMINALS...EARLIEST NORTH /KSYR-KRME/ AND LATEST SOUTH /KAVP/.
ANY TERMINALS TAKING DIRECT HIT FROM CELLS MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD
EXPERIENCE STRONG GUSTS.
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING S TO SW AT 5 KTS OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
TODAY SW WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH AFTN GUSTS TO 20. TONIGHT SW WINDS AT
4 TO 8 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT THROUGH THU...VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME...BUT RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA ESPECIALLY AFTN-EVE HRS TUE-WED.
FRI...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/MSE
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MDP/MSE
LONG TERM...MLJ/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
203 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY WHEN A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. DRIER WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST HRRR AND RUC SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES/MID MS RIVER VLY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
DWINDLE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. AS SUCH...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOW STAY MAINLY DRY
OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/STORM ENCROACHING
THE WESTERN ZONES TOWARD 8 AM. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY
MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH
LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW OFF FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO OHIO
ON MONDAY. IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. WITH
THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE QUASI ZONAL UPPER FLOW...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING MAY
REACH SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO RELATIVELY VIGOROUS WIND FIELDS AND
MODERATE INSTABILITIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIP DURING PEAK HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
FCST PERIOD. EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE INSTBY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTN IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT. THIS INSTBY COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR WILL LKLY RESULT IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THIS
SIGNAL HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER FOR SEVERAL
RUNS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING MAIN THREATS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT IN HWO PRODUCT. WITH CONSISTENT
SIGNAL FROM MODELS WILL BUMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL TUESDAY AFTN
INTO TUE EVENING.
THIS SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THRU THE AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS MAINLY EARLY SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING FROM THE NORTH. IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.
MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
ON THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLN THAT UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEAN TROF...THERE
COULD BE A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTN...MAINLY ACRS THE
EAST...BUT HAVE KEPT FCST DRY AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY.
THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY WHILE MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS MINOR MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND
AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING SAT AFTN DUE TO AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
OHIO. WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS ACRS ENTIRE FA SAT NIGHT WITH WARM
FRONT PIVOTING THRU FA. LOW CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY IN WARM
SECTOR WITH APPROACH OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION RUNNING SW-NE THROUGH CHICAGO WILL WEAKEN IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SSW WINDS OVER OHIO VALLEY WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE A MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF THE LINE OF
STORMS...BUT IN THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM...DISALLOW THE
ORGANIZATION OVER A LARGER SCALE THAT IS NEEDED FOR THE STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. THIS WILL BE OVERCOME DURING THE
LATTER PARTS OF THE MORNING WHEN ADDED INSOLATION PROVIDES ENERGY
TO CREATE A GOOD BIT OF INSTABILITY TO THE REGION.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE LINE OF
SHOWERS...BUT THE AXIS OF THE H5 S/W LAYS OUT SOMEWHAT NW OF THE
I-71 CORRIDOR TOWARDS 18Z AND THEN BECOMES MORE SHEARED OUT WHEN
IT MOVES EAST IN THE 18-0Z TIME FRAME. LIMITED THE SHOWERS TO
VICINITY AND PUT A TIME FRAME ON TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE TWO
COULD OCCUR AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME AFTER 15Z AND CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24-30 HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH THE
CIGS GENERALLY AROUND 4KFT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING
IN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM...CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREDOMINATE EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILES RESULTING IN SOME MTN VALLEY FOG. AN INTERESTING THING TO
WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS WHERE/HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW STRATUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF LOW LEVEL UPGLIDE/ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ADVECTION SETS UP. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL PROBABLY SPREAD
AS FAR NORTH AS I-85 (EAST OF I-26)...AND SKY COVER HAS BEEN BEEFED
UP TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE LATER THIS MORNING. ALSO OF
INTEREST IS THE FACT THAT ALMOST ALL HIRES AND SHORT TERM MODELS
FEATURE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING IN THE
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL S/SW FLOW. THIS IS NOT ENTIRELY
UNREASONABLE GIVEN DEPICTION OF MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ON THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. IF ANYTHING...THE LATEST/HOT OFF THE
PRESSES RUN OF THE HRRR IS FEATURING AN EVEN MORE ROBUST RESPONSE
THAN EARLIER RUNS. WHILE I/M STILL SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL...DECIDED THAT
IT WOULDN/T HURT TO THROW IN A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK.
AT 10 PM EDT SUNDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
HUDSON BAY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK
UPPER SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OFF THE SC COAST...AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION EXTENDING SOUTH INTO FL.
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE UPPER SYSTEM IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
AND THE COASTAL SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WAS MOVING INTO THE NE
GA AND WESTERN CAROLINA PIEDMONT FROM CENTRAL GA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS INCREASING ON A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...A SUBSIDENCE CAP
AT AROUND 10000 FT AND LOSS OF HEATING WILL PREVENT CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MORE FOG IS
EXPECTED THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS...MAINLY IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE...DESPITE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN RETURN FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCE BEING WARMER MAX
TEMPS AND HIGHER DWPTS. FCST SNDGS LINGER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT
FEEL THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE FORCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HTG IN THE
MTNS AND IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT WHERE BUOYANCY WILL BE GREATEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...ON TUESDAY...THE BASE OF THE H5 TROF AND
ASSOCIATED S/W WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERN END OF A SHORT WAVE MAY
BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA BY 0Z WED. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GREATER INSTABILITY WITH LESS CIN FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THE NAM SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
MTNS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. I WILL START TO INCREASE POP AHEAD
OF THIS TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME SCENARIO. A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF NW TO SE COLD FRONT. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MTNS
BY SUNSET...WITH NAM THE FASTEST. I WILL INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHC
ACROSS THE MTNS WITH CHC POPS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE VERY
CLOSE TO TUESDAY/S VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY NWLY FLOW ALOFT FRI INTO SAT. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT AND BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER THE CAROLINAS PIEDMONT BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE FRONT
WILL THEN OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN
MOIST PROFILES AND MODERATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY
(1500-2000J/KG SBCAPE)...WE SHOULD SEE RATHER CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE...AS INCR S/SW FLOW AND WEAK RISING MOTION
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SPREADS MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE
ATLANTIC INTO THE PIEDMONT. WHILE PRETTY MUCH ALL SHORT TERM AND
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SIMILARLY DEPICT THIS...THE RESPONSE IN TERMS
OF CIGS VARIES WIDELY. HOWEVER...ONE OF OUR MORE RELIABLE HI RES
MODELS DOES DEVELOP IFR CIGS NEAR THE TERMINAL AT AROUND
DAYBREAK...AND THIS IS NOT ENTIRELY UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE PATTERN.
WHILE I/M NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO QUITE THAT LOW...A LOW MVFR CIG
W/ SCT IFR CLOUDS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. LOW/THIN
STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING...GIVING RISE TO SCT
VFR CUMULUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT S/SW WINDS TO
CONTINUE IN THE 4-8 KTS RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS (EXCEPT AT KAVL...SEE BELOW) ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SW WINDS AT 5-10 KTS. SOME GUSTS IN THE MID
TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL AT
KAVL LATER THIS MORNING. WHILE GUIDANCE IS BEEFING UP THE FOG
PROBABILITY...NOT AT ALL UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE INCREASING
MOISTURE...THE TEMP/DEWP SPREAD AT 05Z WAS HIGHER THAN I TYPICALLY
LIKE TO SEE FOR A GOOD FOG EVENT. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS IN
THE MVFR RANGE FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH I WOULDN/T BE ENTIRELY SURPRISED
TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2SM TOWARD 12Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT THE
EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A TAF MENTION ATTM.
OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY INCREASES TOWARD MID-WEEK AS GULF MOISTURE
RETURNS AND A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 87% HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 85% HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT/JDL
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1200 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WITH SPEED BETWEEN 15KT AND 20KT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
UPDATE...
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. UPDATED PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
EXPAND THE LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST AND CALL FOR AREAL QUALIFIERS RATHER THAN CATEGORICAL PRECIP.
ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER MORE THIS EVENING.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASION
REGION MAINTAINING A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AROUND
00Z TO 03Z MONDAY. EXPECT GENERALLY ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 03Z
MONDAY. FEEL THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECIDED TO INSERT LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. THE LATEST
TTU-WRF AND...TO SOME EXTENT...THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE NAM...RUC AND
ECMWF SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS WEEK
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...06Z TO
12Z TUESDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TUESDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE GREAT BASION REGION BACK DOWN INTO THE
PANHANDLES AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. WEAKNESS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AFFECTING
THE FORECAST AREA IN COMBINATION WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION...DEVELOPING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...TO MOVE LITTLE AND CAUSING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS BY TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
DRY CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
14/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1120 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE GENERAL WEAK
TROUGHING PRESIDED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS
EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL MN. ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORTWAVE PER THE RAP AT
800MB WERE 30 KT NORTHWEST WINDS AND 14-15C TEMPERATURES. COMPARE
THIS TO 25-30 KT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 18-20C TEMPERATURES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THAT WARM NOSE COMBINED WITH MORNING STRATUS AND
DEBRIS CLOUDS HAS KEPT CONDITIONS CAPPED THUS FAR. EDGE OF CAP
REFLECTED NICELY TOO BY SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING ON OVER WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART
HAVE BEEN STUCK IN THE 70S WITH A FEW 80S WHERE CLEARING BRIEFLY
OCCURRED IN SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ON
THE RISE...THOUGH...NOW IN THE LOW 70S. BACK IN WESTERN IA...
EVAPOTRANSPORATION PUSHING DEWPOINTS THERE IN THE UPPER 70S.
THINKING THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING TOWARDS THE AREA IS NOT
HELPING MATTERS TO CLEAR THE STRATUS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS HAVE RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-
2010 J/KG WHILE MLCIN SITS 50-100 J/KG WHERE IT CLEARED TO
201-300 J/KG WHERE ITS STILL CLOUDY. MEANWHILE...IN SOUTHWEST
MN... DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN OFF INTO MID LOW 50S BEHIND A
TROUGH/DRYLINE THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO NORTHWEST
WI.
ANTICIPATING CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG THE
TROUGH/DRYLINE NEAR/WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES TO GET RID OF THE CIN. CONVECTION SHOULD TAKE ON A
SCATTERED NATURE GIVEN THE CAP IN PLACE. WHERE CONVECTION DOES
FIRE...0-3KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR ARE ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KT... WHICH
SHOULD FAVOR MORE MULTI-CELLULAR ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
CAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT AN INITIAL SUPERCELL...BUT THINKING MORE
INTENSE MULTI-CELLS ARE MORE LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS OF BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 01-02Z.
HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE CONVECTION DOESNT EVEN MAKE
IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF THE
MASSIVE AMOUNT OF CIN RIGHT NOW IN PLACE. MANY HRRR RUNS TODAY HAVE
SHOWN THIS.
MUCH OF TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN LOOKS DRY AS
UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 500MB BRINGS IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN FROM NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS
REFLECTED WELL IN GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS VALUES
OF 1 INCH OR LESS OVER WESTERN MN COMPARED TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.
HEADING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...A LONG WAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN. INCREASING
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...COMBINED WITH 1000-
1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH LITTLE CAPPING AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS
MINNESOTA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS DEPICTED TOO BY DETERMINISTIC
AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. THIS CONVECTION COULD SPREAD INTO THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN 0-3KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KT AND MORE IMPORTANTLY 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF
40-55 KT...ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE. COULD
END UP SEEING A MIX OF SUPERCELL AND LINE SEGMENTS...THOUGH THE
SHEAR BEING UNIDIRECTIONAL MAY FAVOR MORE LINE SEGMENTS AND THUS
DAMAGING WINDS. NEED TO WATCH THE LARGE HAIL CONCERN INITIALLY TOO
GIVEN LOWER FREEZING LEVELS...DROPPING FROM NEAR 14000 FT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 12010 FT LATE MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE SEVERE POTENTIAL MONDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR MID-WEEK.
MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE LONG WAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500MB AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A POINT IN THE EVENING WHERE WE GET
INTO A LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. COMBINE THIS
DYNAMICAL FORCING WITH AN 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT PLUME AND
LINGERING INSTABILITY MEANS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. UNTIL INSTABILITY
WANES...EXPECT A SEVERE THREAT TO EXIST...JUST AS THE 06.12Z HIRES
ARW/NMM SUGGEST. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION COULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...OR AT LEAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF...SO
PRECIPITATION DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
PLUS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TANK AGAIN AFTER BRIEFLY COMING UP
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ON TUESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ON SETTING UP AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. COOL AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH THIS TROUGH IN WISCONSIN...DAYTIME HEATING...AS WELL AS
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPARK SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE IN WISCONSIN
WITH THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH.
DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A RESULT OF A DRIER WESTERN CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE AREA MOVING THROUGH...AND BEING AROUND THE INFLECTION POINT
BEHIND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH 850MB TEMP
ANOMALIES ABOUT 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL...OR BETWEEN 9-
13C. LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.75 INCHES WILL HELP TOO IN
RADIATIVE COOLING AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH MIXING OF DEWPOINTS IN THE
DAY. COULD SEE SOME VALLEY FOG TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. WARM ADVECTION BEGINS IN
EARNEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH HEADS OFF TO THE EAST. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE WITH
THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...PERHAPS CREEPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA EITHER LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. STORM CHANCES THEN LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM
MANITOBA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PERHAPS BY SUNDAY ALL
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL GET SHOVED TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...HAVE STILL
MAINTAINED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURE WISE...850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY RANGE 16-18C THROUGH SATURDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
80S. THESE SHOULD COOL BACK SOME ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROUGH DROPPING
IN. HUMIDITY WILL BE UP TOO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THAT RETURN
FLOW...EVAPOTRANSPORATION AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION ADDING MOISTURE
TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS...THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
STILL RELATIVELY MOIST AT THE SFC AT LATE EVENING...WITH TDS IN THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
THOUGH...AND ANTICIPATE TDS NEARING 60 AT BOTH KRST/KLSE BEFORE 12Z.
SOME HINTS IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT SOME BR COULD DEVELOP AT THE
VALLEY LOCATION OF KLSE...BUT IF TDS FALL AS EXPECTED...AND WINDS
HOVER IN THE 7-8 MPH RANGE...THINK THIS FOG WOULD BE HELD AT BAY. IF
WINDS STAY LIGHT AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES LONGER TO GET TO KLSE...BR
IS MORE LIKELY. TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND UPDATES TO
FORECAST MADE IF NEEDED.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SFC FRONT COMBO WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...TRIGGERING
MORE SHRA/TS. THREAT TIME APPEARS TO BE IN THE 21-06Z TIME FRAME AT
THE MOMENT. ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR A STRONG-SEVERE STORM
THREAT...WITH MAIN THREAT FOCUSED ON DAMAGING WINDS. WILL USE A MIX
OF VCSH/VCTS AND -SHRA TO OUTLINE THE POTENTIAL FOR NOW. WILL LET
LATER FORECASTS/UPDATES FINE-TUNE THE HIGHER PERIODS FOR TSRA AS
THEY BECOME CLEARER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
RIVER STAGES ARE FALLING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND IT
APPEARS THAT ALL OF THEM WILL BE BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME RAIN FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT NONE OF
IT LOOKS WIDESPREAD HEAVY ENOUGH TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
THE MISSISSIPPI...OR EVEN TRIBUTARIES FOR THAT MATTER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM..AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION....RIECK
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1033 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2014
.Near Term [Rest of Today]...
Overall, very little change was made to the existing forecast
for today. It still looks like a warm day with highs just above
normal and rather sparse convective coverage again. The 12Z
sounding from Tallahassee had precipitable water observed at
1.04", which is just 57% of normal. Despite a slight increase in
deep layer moisture today, PWATs should remain below normal.
Objective MSAS and RAP analysis places a NE-SW oriented surface
trough over the northwest portions of our area, and this is
supported by a shift in the surface wind direction in that area.
Convection-allowing models focus afternoon development along that
trough, as well as along the Panhandle sea breeze boundary. This
is where we maintained 20% PoPs, with a dry forecast in most other
locations. Highs should mostly be in the 92-94 degree range.
&&
.Prev Discussion [248 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
With a weak Sfc ridge that is poised to become centered just to the
south of our coastal waters, conditions for a more convectively
active sea breeze circulation will begin to develop. However,
despite the normally active Type 4 and Type 5 sea breeze days
(characterized by light to moderate W-SW winds between 1000 and 700
mb for Type 4, and strong W-SW flow in this layer for Type 5), the
deep layer moisture that is needed to support the normally higher
PoPs and QPF for these regimes will still be lacking. Therefore, to
determine PoPs through the period, went with a 50/50 blend of sea
breeze climo PoPs with our locally produced confidence grids. This
blend gives us a maximum of 20-30% rain chances for Tuesday, and
30-40% for Wednesday. Also, with the drier air remaining in place,
afternoon high temperatures are expected to continue to be quite
hot, generally towards the higher end of the middle 90s away from
the coast.
.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Sunday]...
Beginning Thursday, models are in fairly good agreement that a
developing longwave trough axis from the Appalachians to the
Florida Panhandle will be accompanied by a cold front reaching the
Southeast. This should increase rain chances late this week and
into the weekend. Given that, PoPs are slightly above normal
values - closer to 50-60% - and high temperatures are slightly
cooler than what we`ve seen recently by a degree or two.
.Aviation...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF.
.Marine...
With weak surface high pressure remaining in control just to the
south of the coastal waters through the period, generally light
onshore winds and low seas are expected for the next several days.
However, there will be some brief enhancements over the nearshore
waters during the late afternoon and evening hours due to the sea
breeze circulation.
.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not anticipated over the next
several days.
.Hydrology...
With only a modest moistening trend expected across the CWA, no
rises of any significance are expected on our area rivers and
streams through the upcoming week.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 93 71 97 73 96 / 10 10 30 10 40
Panama City 89 77 90 77 90 / 20 10 20 10 30
Dothan 92 70 96 72 96 / 20 10 20 20 40
Albany 93 70 97 72 96 / 20 10 20 20 30
Valdosta 96 69 97 70 96 / 10 10 30 20 40
Cross City 91 69 94 71 94 / 30 10 30 10 40
Apalachicola 88 76 88 77 89 / 10 10 20 20 30
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GOULD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
931 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING INTO THE COASTAL AND
METRO AREAS THIS MORNING. THE 12Z SOUNDING WAS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...WEAK LAPSE RATES...AND
AROUND 3300 J/KG CAPE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WAS SEEN IN THE
BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP
POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AND METRO AREAS THIS MORNING AND FOR THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IN SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE SITTING
TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE
MAIN QUESTION IS THE STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAY.
LOOKING AT THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS, THERE IS NOTHING THAT LOOKS
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE TODAY. CAPE IS GENERALLY LESS THAT 1000
JOULES, DCAPE IS RIGHT AROUND 500. THE NCAPE IS GENERALLY .1 OR
LESS, WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR EXCEPTIONS. 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES
ARE AROUND 5.5C/KM. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS JUST ABOVE 14000 FT. BUT
THE 500MB TEMPS ARE ABOUT -7.4C. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CAP. SO,
ALL IN ALL, LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL SEE PRETTY MUCH RUN OF THE MILL
THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE, HERE IS SOUTH FLORIDA, THERE SEEMS TO
ALWAYS BE A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS, SO WILL NOT RULE THEM
OUT. BUT THEY LOOK TO BE THE EXCEPTION, NOT THE RULE TODAY. OF
COURSE, THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING MAY TELL A DIFFERENT STORY. BUT FOR
NOW, WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST, MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. LOOKING AT THE
MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HRRR, IT SEEMS TO CONFIRM THE THOUGHT OF
RUN OF THE MILL TYPE STORMS. CURRENTLY, IT IS SHOWING MAX
DOWNDRAFT OF ONLY 2.5 M/S. ALSO, IT IS SHOWING THE MAIN THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE WESTERN LAKE REGION. IT DOES SHOW
MORE CAPE THAN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER, THAT JUST REINFORCES
THE THOUGHT OF THUNDERSTORMS BEING ABLE TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE THUNDERSTORM STRENGTHS MAY CHANGE DAY TO DAY, THE
WEATHER PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
NEXT WEEK, SO, EXPECT MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. SOME OF THEM MAY BECOME STRONG AT TIMES. TEMPERATURE
WISE, THAT ALSO LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY TYPICAL AS WELL, WITH HIGHS
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND 90 AND UP TO THE MID 90S FOR THE
INTERIOR.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE EAST COAST SITES
WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS
PUSHING INTO COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS MORNING FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. KEPT PRECIP MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR NOW BUT WILL
AMEND AS NECESSARY. EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z.
MARINE...
EXPECT TYPICAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FOR THE SURROUNDING WATERS.
NO SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS, BUT MAY ALSO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 77 89 77 / 50 30 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 90 80 / 30 30 50 30
MIAMI 89 78 90 79 / 30 30 50 20
NAPLES 90 75 90 75 / 50 20 50 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
654 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS INLAND THROUGH MID
WEEK. A WEAK FRONT COULD APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY..BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN POSITIONED BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WELL OFFSHORE AND LEE-SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT
REGION. WATER VAPOR AND RAP VORTICITY DATA SHOW A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND DURING PEAK
HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SURPRISINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE HINTS THAT DEWPOINTS WILL MIX
OUT...BUT NONE OF THE MODELS NOR THEIR ASSOCIATED MODEL OUTPUT
STATISTICS ARE SHOWING ANY MEANINGFUL CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RNFL.
GIVEN ITS EARLY SUMMER AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION LOOKS DECENT WITHIN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WE
ARE HESITANT TO CARRY A POP-FREE FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CONFINED ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. MENTIONABLE POPS WILL GENERALLY
BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH
GRIDDED VALUES ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INCLUDING
ALLENDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA REMAINING BELOW
MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S
INLAND WITH LOWER 90S-UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT TONIGHT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE INLAND LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS WELL. DESPITE THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO HELP KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FAIRLY WELL MIXED. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM/HUMID
NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S WELL
INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AND IN DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.
TUESDAY...THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF
PROMINENT ATLANTIC RIDGING...WHILE AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH
GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD BY THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND A VERY NOTABLE
CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH RAIN CHANCES AS A RESULT OF THE
DRY ENVIRONMENT AND LACK OF FORCING...CONFINING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO JUST A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THIS SMALL MENTION OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY ON TUESDAY. IF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD THIS DRIER FORECAST...ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION COULD
EVENTUALLY BE REMOVED ALL TOGETHER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER STRONG RIDGING AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...REACHING THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.
WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BY THE MID
WEEK...WITH THE INLAND SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN WILL BE
TRANSITIONING...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ONCE
AGAIN LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PREFER TO MENTION JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWLY IMPROVING MOISTURE
PROFILE. THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SENDING THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOWARD THE COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SUGGESTING THAT ISOLATED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION COULD OCCUR
AS A RESULT. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS DRIER FOR THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD...WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 90S.
THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME NOTABLY MORE ACTIVE...AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST SUPPORTS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE LINGERING INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH. DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY...RAISING CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL ADVERTISE RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG AND INLAND OF THE
SEABREEZE DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD. WILL STILL MAINTAIN 30 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCES OVERNIGHT GIVEN SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY
AS A RESULT OF LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT...INCREASING CLOUDS...AND
BETTER RAIN COVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE COASTLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...REINFORCED BY
STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG
THE EAST COAST. HAVE MAINTAINED RELATIVELY HIGH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACCORDINGLY...PEAKING AT NEAR 50 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONLY DOWN TO THE 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY...SUPPRESSED
SLIGHTLY BY THICK CLOUDS AND DECENT RAIN COVERAGE.
THE PATTERN WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EVIDENCE THAT
DEEP LAYER RIDGING COULD REGAIN SOME CONTROL. SOME FORM OF AN
INLAND SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...SUGGESTING THAT SOLID RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL JUSTIFIED
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
WARMER BY A DEGREE OR TWO...RANGING FROM 91 TO 94 DEGREES AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHORT-LIVED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASES WITHIN A DEVELOPING BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FT.
TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL SURGING APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH
INLAND. WINDS LOOK TO PEAK 15-20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS...4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. ATTM IT DOES APPEAR AS
THOUGH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...MAINTAINING
GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. NOCTURNAL SURGES ARE POSSIBLE
EACH NIGHT DUE TO A TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN AN INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WINDS COULD
INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT...MAINLY WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST
DURING THESE SURGES. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4
FT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MORE SOLID SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/WMS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1042 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1042 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
15z/10am surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from
Chicago to near Quincy. Ahead of the boundary, a band of low
clouds blankets much of central Illinois. Latest radar imagery is
beginning to show a few showers developing within this band,
primarily along and south of a Danville...to Decatur...to
Jacksonville line. Both the 12z NAM and HRRR show showers and
thunderstorms becoming more widespread later this afternoon across
the far SE KILX CWA. Have updated the forecast to limit POPs to
the southern half of the CWA only, with the highest chances
along/south of I-70.
40-45kt LLJ is progged to develop across eastern Kansas into
northern Missouri tonight, triggering a cluster of thunderstorms
west of the Mississippi River. This convection is expected to
track eastward into central Illinois overnight, potentially
producing strong winds and heavy rainfall. The exact evolution and
track of the storms still remains in doubt: however, the timing
looks to be firmly after midnight. As such, have updated POPs
tonight to go with dry conditions during the evening except across
the far SE where a few thunderstorms may linger. Then have gone
with likely POPs across the board after midnight as the storm
complex arrives from the west. Zone update has already been
issued.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 651 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
A frontal boundary will stall in the vicinity of the central
Illinois terminals today. However, the threat of shower/storms for
most of the 12Z TAF valid time is fairly minimal. Aside from the
next hour or so at KCMI & KDEC...do not really expect much
precipitation coverage until 06Z Tuesday or later. Once some MVFR
cigs in the vicinity of the front mix out/and or lift early this
morning...VFR conditions should prevail outside of any heavier
thunderstorms later tonight. However...confidence in the details
is too low to mention at this time.
Bak
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night
Much of central and southeast IL remains in a slight risk of
severe storms later today and tonight per SPC day1 outlook. Just
far ne CWA around Marshall county is outside this risk area. A
weakening cold front over se parts of WI/IA and nw MO early this
morning will push se into central IL during today. Most of
convection has been focused from ne IL ne into lower MI early this
morning though a few cells have recently appeared along an outflow
boundary from northern McLean county westward to around Macomb to
Burlington, IA. Daytime heating of very unstable airmass along
with some wind shear to bring increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon especially late over central
and southern areas. Then MCS to develop over central plains this
evening and spread east into central/southern IL overnight into
Tue morning and this too will have risk of severe storms and heavy
rains especially sw areas. Greatest threat of damaging winds and
tornadoes is over northern MO, southern IA and eastern Nebraska.
Very warm and humid today with highs in the upper 80s to near 90F.
Lows tonight in upper 60s north and lower 70s south.
MCS to diminish from west to east during Tue morning while
stronger cold front pushes into southeast IL Tue afternoon where
best chances of convection will be. SPC keeps slight risk of
severe storms south of our CWA in southern IL Tue. Have lingered a
chance of showers and thunderstorms in southeast IL Tue evening
mainly until sunset then dry weather returns rest of Tue night and
Wed as weak high pressure settles into the Midwest. Highs in the
lower 80s Tue central IL and mid 80s southeast IL and still humid.
Then less humid Wed with highs mostly in the lower 80s.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday
Extended models continue to show IL in a wnw upper level flow late
this week with upper level trof over the Ohio river valley and
upper level ridging in the west. Surface high pressure settling
into the Great Lakes region Thursday and bring dry weather through
Thu night along with more comfortable humidity levels with
dewpoints in the lower 60s and highs in the lower 80s with a few
upper 70s ne areas. As high pressure drifts east into New England
Friday will get a return southerly flow of warmer 80s and
gradually more humid air with dewpoints rising back into upper 60s
and lower 70s late this week. Also have disturbances tracking ese
from northern plains into the area from Friday afternoon into the
weekend bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Best
chances appears to be Friday night especially northern areas.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
928 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP FIRST AROUND THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST. EXPECT THE CHANCE OF SVR WX IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH A SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY EARLY
EVENING. HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND OF STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE BETWEEN 21Z AND 22Z. THIS LINE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
BY 01Z.
PREVIOUSLY...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY REVOLVE AROUND THE CHANCES FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND BE
ASSOCIATED WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES
HERE AND THERE. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF SFC HEATING SHOULD OCCUR FROM
LATE MORNING ON THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THIS WILL
AID IN DESTABILIZATION.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND VT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW PROS AND CONS WITH TODAY/S SETUP
AS IT RELATES TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY. DETRIMENTAL
FACTORS INCLUDE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE ABSENCE OF
REAL RICH MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THOSE FACTORS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR LESS THAN 1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND SO-SO UPDRAFT VELOCITIES.
HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW LATE IN THE
DAY WILL RESULT IN INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES IN THE MIDST
OF IMPROVING UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. IN ADDITION...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD 20 DEGREE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION IN MANY AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE 80S.
THEREFORE...WHILE WE AREN/T EXPECTING A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
TODAY...WE FEEL THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDELY SCT SEVERE
STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE. OUR BEST GUESS IS
THAT ONE OR MORE BOWING SEGMENTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CT RIVER BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING WIND DAMAGE. HAVE
INCLUDED DAMAGING WIND WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR NH GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. HAIL AND TORNADO THREATS ARE NON-ZERO BUT ARE
SECONDARY TO THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
FURTHER EAST IN MAINE...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LESS...BUT A GUSTY WIND/FREQUENT LIGHTNING RISK COULD BE IN THE
CARDS AS NH CONVECTION PUSHES EAST AND WEAKENS DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY MIDNIGHT IF
NOT BEFORE. WE ARE EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY NIGHT AFTER ANY
CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY...AND THE SAME
GENERAL SETUP AS MONDAY IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE. HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL INTO
THE 80S TO AROUND 90.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. ACTUAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE PUSHING
OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR. HIGH TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE COOLER AND
DRIER PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTH.
FAIR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS
WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY BRINGING THE
THREAT OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BULK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
HOWEVER...LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALLOW
FOR LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN NH. SOME FOG AND STRATUS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE COAST TONIGHT. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE.
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY
THROUGH TUE MORNING. A FEW 25 KT GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT.
LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
TFH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
650 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR PUSHING COLD FRONT AND ASSOC CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING
EAST OF THE CWA. WNW FLOW UPSTREAM ALSO REVEALS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
OF NOTE...ONE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER ND...ANOTHER PRODUCING
CONVECTION OVER SRN ALBERTA AND A THIRD ROTATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
FROM NRN SASKATCHEWAN. A COUPLE OF THESE UPSTREAM WAVES WILL IMPACT
WEATHER TONIGHT OVER UPPER MI.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AS
Q-VECT DIV SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
MIXING OF 12-14C 8H TEMPS TO THE SFC UNDER SUNNY SKIES SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND EAST TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE WI BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING WITH THE
ADVANCE OF Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES
DIVING SE FROM SRN ALBERTA AND NRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NRN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY. ENVIRONMENT OF MLCAPE 200-500 J/KG SHOULD
SUPPORT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA INTO NRN WI AND SW UPPER MI.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY JUST SOUTH INTO NRN WI IN
CYCLONIC FLOW OF MID-LVL TROUGH...MODELS SHOW Q-VECT CONV SPREADING
NE THROUGH THE CWA SO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD HIGHER CHC POPS FOR
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA NE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. UNDER NE-E
FLOW...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW
THROUGH NE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 S
SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
THE SFC STRONGEST LOW AT 12Z TUESDAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL LIKELY BE OVER N LAKE MI AND FAR NW LOWER MI...WITH THE BROAD
500MB TROUGH KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER SET UP ACROSS THE AREA.
UNLIKE THE WARM MUGGY AIR OF THIS MORNING...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING AROUND 17C...850MB TEMPS AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 10C.
THE BEST CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
LAKE MI TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW
FAR N THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL BE ABLE TO INVADE...WITH THE
SMALLER SCALE SOLUTIONS GOING NEARLY DRY FOR MONDAY FOR ALL BUT THE
S CENTRAL PORTIONS OF UPPER MI. AT THIS POINT...AROUND 0.2IN OF
PRECIP IS FCST IS FCST FOR S CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
ANOTHER ELONGATED WAVE IN THE 500MB NW FLOW WILL PUSH IN OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS EACH SYSTEM TO ROUND THE 500MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY LOOSES
MORE AND MORE MOISTURE. LOOK FOR THE 500MB TROUGH TO FINALLY EXIT E
OF UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DRY BUT COOL WEATHER WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS STILL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE SFC HIGH EDGES CLOSER TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WARMER AIR ON S-SW
WINDS WILL RETURN. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES...AS 850MB TEMPS RISE BACK TO AROUND 13C. A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER THE W HALF FRIDAY...AND EXPANDING TO MUCH
OF UPPER LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING W
TO E OVERNIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST
MODELS AT THIS POINT TO RESULT IN LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY-SUNDAY. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS APPROX 6HRS FASTER THAN
THE GFS TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI...EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW OVER FAR N ONTARIO/S LAKE HURON. A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DOESN/T LOOK TO BE IN THE CARDS FOR NOW...AS
COOLER W TO NW FLOW RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE
MORE 70 DEGREE DAYS AHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT GUSTY WNW WINDS TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING THEN
DIMINISH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH COMES IN AND BRINGS INCREASING MID CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT IWD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. AS WINDS
SHIFT NE LATE TONIGHT LOOK FOR MVFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KIWD AND
KSAW UNDER RAIN SHOWERS. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
LINGERING FOG OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF
ANY STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS/. LOW PRESSURE NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIFT TOWARD JAMES BAY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI TONIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY WILL SINK
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
951 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHWEST ON LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM MONDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...AND TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS HAD WARMED
QUICKLY WITH READINGS ALREADY NEAR 80. UPPER-AIR ANALYSES AND THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHEAR AXIS OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE STATE...BUT THE AIR MASS WAS PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH THE KGSO
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AT AN INCH ON THE 12Z SOUNDING AND BELOW
1.2 INCHES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THESE VALUES REMAIN BELOW THE NORMAL 1.5 INCHES FOR
JULY. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIR MASS OVER THE VAST MAJORITY
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION. THE RAP DOES
FORECAST A NARROW RIBBON OF LIFT AND RELATIVELY HIGH 850MB THETA-E
VALUES LATE TODAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KGSB TO KCTZ...AND
WHILE THE RAP HAS NO QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...THE LATEST HRRR WRF DOES FORECAST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TOWARD KCTZ AND HARRELLS LATE IN THE DAY...
COINCIDENT WITH A MODEST INCREASE ON THE RAP FORECAST 300MB WIND
TOWARD THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE RETAINED THE
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EXCEPT THE FAR
SOUTHEAST...AND DUE TO THE FAST WARMING THIS WARMING NUDGED HIGHS
UPWARD ROUGHLY A DEGREE MAINLY TOWARD THE TRIAD. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS KNOTS WITH
MIXING BUT IN GENERAL A SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO JUST OVER
10 MPH SHOULD PREVAIL. TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
DOMINATE AS AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO
CURRENT NIGHTS DUE TO AIR MASS MODIFICATION...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 AM MONDAY...
LEESIDE TROUGH SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO A S/W ALOFT MOVING E-SE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS STRENGTHENING OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN SW SURFACE WINDS WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS 9-12KTS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. THIS
STOUT SW FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL AID
TO BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 90S. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT MAY INTERACT WITH AVAILABLE (BUT STILL RATHER LIMITED)
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT 69-
74.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE THE NEXT MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL
HELP TO SHARPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AND LEAD TO A
BETTER CHANCE OF LATE DAY/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT. THE LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING
A FAIRLY DEEP DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WITH THE EXPECTED LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. THUS... IF ANY STRONG CONVECTION IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA EXPECT WE WOULD HAVE A THREAT FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE IS A BIT MIXED ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION
WILL MAKE IT OUR AREA THOUGH. THUS... WILL ONLY RAISE POPS INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING... WITH MOST OF THE LINGERING CONVECTION
DYING OFF BY 06Z OR SO AT THE LATEST. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1420S TO 1430S. THUS... EXPECT
WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 90S... WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
90S IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... WHERE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND CLOUDS
WILL BE THE LEAST. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING... WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA... ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 NW TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE... WITH EVEN SOME
MID 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.... WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY CROSSING THE
REGION ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT. THIS
COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY PW`S CLIMBING TO
AROUND 2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...
WITH CHANCES EACH DAY PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE DEEP SHEAR INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 KT
RANGE. THUS... THIS COMBINED WITH POSSIBLY MODERATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG... POSSIBLY 2000 J/KG)... THINK WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST A SMALL SEVERE THREAT... AS WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME
MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY EACH DAY. GIVEN THE MOIST AND WARM ATMO...
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION.... GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL BE
A BIT COOLER WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND STORMS. THUS... WILL GO
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90/LOWER 90S. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY SATURDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
DRYING ALOFT AND RESULTANT MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. STILL THINK WE WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED TO MAYBE WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO AT LEAST THE 1420S. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE LOWER 90S... WITH
POSSIBLY SOME MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 950 AM MONDAY...
AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER SECTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD KAFP AND KRCZ...WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SW SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 8-11KTS
WITH AN INFREQUENT GUST UP TO 17KTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SW SURFACE
WINDS TUESDAY WILL BE STRONGER WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 9-13KTS AND
GUSTS AROUND 20KTS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NW. IN
ADDITION...AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/DJF
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS/DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
725 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN SLOWLY PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER RETURNS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM...ALTHOUGH STRATOCU IS BEGINNING TO EXPAND A BIT ACROSS
THE AREA...STILL NO SIGN OF TERRAIN-INDUCED SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...AND THE HRRR HAS FINALLY BACKED OFF THIS IDEA IN FAVOR OF
A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND. THE ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION HAS
THEREFORE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE NE GEORGIA/SW NC MTNS. OTHERWISE...
CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED IN MOST AREAS EAST OF I-85 IN LIGHT
OF EXPANDING STRATOCU.
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED DRIFT TOWARD
TYPICAL EARLY/MID SUMMER WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH DEWPOINTS
AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HIRES/
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INSIST THAT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND SOUTHWEST NC WITHIN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG S/SW UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. IN FACT...TAKING A CONSENSUS
APPROACH WOULD ARGUE FOR LIKELY OR BETTER POPS. NEVERTHELESS...IT
SEEMS THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN INITIATING
CONVECTION DURING THIS SHORT TERM DRY SPELL...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
ONLY MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER ARGUMENT AGAINST CONVECTION FORMING THIS MORNING...OR AT ALL
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IS THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
STABLE LAYER IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST
A VERY DEEP/WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BENEATH THIS STABLE LAYER. THUS...WHILE THIS STABLE
LAYER DOES CUT IN TO THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AVAILABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUNDINGS ARE NOT COMPLETELY CAPPED...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MTNS. ISOLATED HIGH TERRAIN TSRA WAS INHERITED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE RETAINED FOR THIS UPDATE. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM TODAY...WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT VERY CLOSE
TO CLIMO. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE DIMINISHING OF ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR
TWO OF NORMAL BY 12Z TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM MON...FOR TUE AND WED THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN
STRONG OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC...THOUGH MEAN TROUGHING WILL BE PRESENT
ACRS THE ERN CONUS. THE TROUGH INITIALLY WILL BE REINFORCED BY A
SHORTWAVE ENTERING IT FROM THE PLAINS TUESDAY...BUT AS A SFC LOW
LIFTS ACRS ERN CANADA IT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BEGIN TO BUDGE BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS SEWD OUT OF THE MIDWEST...AFFECTING THE TENN VALLEY BY TUE
NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY LAYING OUT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND SRN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THU.
LLVL FLOW GRADUALLY PICKS UP AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND FRONT APPROACHES
BUT REMAINS WSWLY...THUS MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP TUE WILL BE OVER THE MTNS WITH THE ERN CWFA STILL
CAPPED BY THE HIGH. EVEN BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE OFF TO THE WEST
OVER THE TENN VALLEY...AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SOME
OF THAT CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NC MTNS TUE NIGHT. ON WED
THE SAME CONDITIONS SHOULD SET UP FURTHER SOUTH OVER MS/AR...SO WHILE
THE UPSTREAM IS OF LESS CONCERN MOST OF OUR FA WILL BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR IN SITU CONVECTION...ALBEIT WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN APPEARS THE GREATEST CONCERN THOUGH A
COUPLE OF STRONG CORES PRODUCING WIND/HAIL ARE PLAUSIBLE. SOME PRECIP
CHANCES WILL PERSIST THRU WED NIGHT WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA AND
SLIGHT ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY WILL TREND WARMER AS THICKNESSES
INCREASE DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGHING...THE RESULT BEING MAX TEMPS A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. WED HIGHS IN THE MTNS HOWEVER ARE PROGGED TO BE
LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MON...FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWFA ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE ERN CONUS.
ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE PIEDMONT WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES...WITH INSTABILITY NEAR CLIMO. NUMEROUS TSTMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. THEN...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW RESUMES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE REPLACES THE TROUGH...AND WHAT REMAINS OF THE
FRONT WASHES OUT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE BERMUDA HIGH REGAINS
CONTROL AT THAT POINT...SUPPORTING A LIMITED AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WHICH WARM SLIGHTLY
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BY LATE SUNDAY HOWEVER THE GFS
DIGS A SHORTWAVE THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH AMPLIFIES THE PATTERN
AGAIN. THE EC SHOWS THIS OCCURRING A LITTLE LATER...BEYOND THE END
OF THE FCST. NONETHELESS ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED POPS IS BEING
SUGGESTED AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...AS FEARED...LOW STRATUS WAS EXPANDING RAPIDLY ABOUT 10 TO
20 MILES SE OF THE TERMINAL AS OF 11Z. IN FACT...CIGS WERE IN THE
LIFR RANGE AT KEQY. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF AT LEAST IFR CIGS...IF
NOT LOWER THIS MORNING...AND WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A TEMPO THROUGH
14Z. CIGS SHOULD RAPIDLY SCATTER OUT AT THAT TIME...GIVING WAY TO
SCT VFR CUMULUS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT S/SW WINDS TO
CONTINUE IN THE 4-8 KTS RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE...CANNOT RULE OUT A RETURN OF LOW
CIGS LATE IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW REGIME WILL BE MUCH LESS
FAVORABLE FOR SUCH.
ELSEWHERE...A SMALL AREA OF LOW MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
UPSTATE SC THIS MORNING. IT MAY EXPAND A BIT WITH SUNRISE...BUT FEEL
THAT A TEMPO SHOULD HANDLE IT ADEQUATELY AT ALL SC TERMINALS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MTNS...BUT THE EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A TAF
MENTION ATTM. CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR MTN VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT CONSIDERING THE FAILURE OF VSBY
RESTRICTIONS TO MATERIALIZE AT KAVL THIS MORNING...WILL FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY INCREASES TOWARD MID-WEEK AS GULF MOISTURE
RETURNS AND A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z
KCLT HIGH 81% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 79% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1004 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY...ALLOWING
A RETURN OF HOT AND MORE HUMID AIR TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND SPILL
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
HEATING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1004 AM EDT MONDAY...
MAINLY DRY BUT WARM AND HUMID FORECAST LOOKS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK
FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN MID
TO UPPER 80S WEST WITH LOWER 90S EAST...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY
COMPONENT IN SOUNDINGS AND RADAR VWP SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY BE ENOUGH TO ADD A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SO MADE VERY MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
THERE. WESTERLY WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER ALREADY THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO BUMPED UP GUSTS
REMAINDER OF MORNING AND A LITTLE BIT FOR AFTERNOON AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO PRECIP FORECAST THIS AFT/EVE WITH ONLY
ISOLD STORMS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW NC...STILL SUPPORTED BY
LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS. MIXING OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS WHAT
WILL REALLY LIMIT ANY COVERAGE...AND SHOULD BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND DISSIPATING QUICKLY BY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...
GRADUAL RETURN OF HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE STATES SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
INCREASING SW FLOW TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS SHOULD PUSH 85H TEMPS BACK TO
ABOVE 20C LATER ON AND THIS COMBO WITH WARMER THICKNESS UNDER SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW SOME SPOTS ESPCLY ACROSS THE EAST TO TOP 90. HOWEVER
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ABOUT STATUS QUO...AND DESPITE SOME SLOW INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...EXPECT MIXING TO ACTUALLY LOWER VALUES SOME THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK FOR THE MOST PART. OTRW
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MET MOS UNDER
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAIN QUITE IFFY GIVEN
LACK OF MUCH UPPER SUPPORT WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DRIVEN BY LOCAL
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND INCREASING THETA-E UNDER THE RETURN FLOW. MOST
GUIDANCE BASICALLY DRY THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA BEING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE PER SW FLOW AND
PERHAPS THE EXTREME NW WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOOKING AT
FORECAST PWATS. MODEST INSTABILITY ALSO BEST IN THESE LOCATIONS AND
SINCE HINTED AT BY THE NAM/CMC AND SPC WRF KEPT AN ISOLATED MENTION
THERE BUT WITHOUT POPS ELSW.
IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS ESPCLY SW...MAY SEE ISOLATED CELLS FARTHER
EAST INTO NW NC/SRN VA DURING THE EARLY EVENING OFF OUTFLOW BUT ONLY
SUPPORTED BY THE SPC WRF SO LEFT OUT POPS ATTM. OTRW MAIN CONCERN OVER
THE FAR NW WITH POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ALONG THE
INITIAL FRONT TO ARRIVE LATE. GUIDANCE HAS MOST OF THIS FADING UPON
APPROACH BUT APPEARS CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW POP ESPCLY GIVEN A
DECENT RETURN OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO THE NW. THUS
KEPT IN 20/30 POPS LATE AFTER ANY EARLY COVERAGE ENDS. OTRW BECOMING
MORE WARM/HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS RISING AND BREEZES PERSISTING
ON THE RIDGES. THIS MAY KEEP SOME SPOTS ABOVE 70 FOR LOWS WHILE SEEING
MOSTLY MUGGY 60S ELSW UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND PATCHY FOG
LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THEN
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES TRACKING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD EACH PERIOD.
WITH THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY...THE BULK OF THE STORMS
WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH HEAT AND THE INCREASE OF
MOISTURE...SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST.
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVE STORMS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. AS THE FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL REENTER THE WEST.
ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONT AND A LEE TROUGH WILL INTERACT TO BRING
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE ADDITION OF
A SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED ENTRANCE REGION OF A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ALSO BRING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEW POINT FRONT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO ADVANCE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE MUGGY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
UPPER TROF FLATTENS...WITH ZONAL 500 MB FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE APPROACHING THE
EAST ON SUNDAY.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE DOES NOT GET PUSHED VERY
FAR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROLONG THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR COMES IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE AIR AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM EDT MONDAY...
COMMS ISSUES REMAIN AT KDAN DESPITE AN INTERMITTENT RETURN OF
OBSERVATION DATA. AMD NOT SKED CONTINUED IN THE TAF...ALTHOUGH
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z/9AM WITH DAYTIME
HEATING... AND EXPECT A SCTD/BKN 4-6K FT CU FIELD TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...HOWEVER
THE CHANCE IS VERY LOW SO LEAVING OUT MENTION FOR NOW. OTRW VFR
UNDER INCREASING SW WINDS WHICH MAY GUST TO 15 OR 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT TO THE NW WILL START TO APPROACH OVERNIGHT PRECEDED BY
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY REACH KBLF/KLWB BY
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS AXIS OF
SHOWERS DOWN SO NOT INCLUDING MENTION ACROSS SE WVA LATE. OTRW
THINKING CONTINUED VFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME ADDED PATCHY
FOG AT KLWB PENDING CLOUDS AND KBCB WHERE SKIES MAY STAY CLEAR
LONGER.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH
BETTER CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TUESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA BY
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF PERIODIC MVFR REDUCTIONS ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH HEATING TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR WEEKS END INCLUDING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
ESPCLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN LOCATIONS. THE POTENTIAL ALSO
EXISTS FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KLWB...AND PERHAPS AT KBCB
AS WELL AS ANY TERMINAL THAT SEES A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
COMMS ISSUES WITH KDAN ASOS TRANSMITTING OUT. THE FAA IS AWARE OF
THE OUTAGE AND WILL BE WORKING ON IT...BUT NO ESTIMATED TIME OF
WHEN IT WILL BE WORKING AGAIN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/SK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
227 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AT
THIS TIME AS A WEAK IMPULSE IS MOVING THROUGH. DO NOT SEE THE NEED
TO CARRY ANY ADDITIONAL POPS WITH THIS FEATURE THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT AS THE HRRR MODEL WHICH REALLY HANDLED THIS DISTURBANCE
WELL SHOWS NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE...THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS THAT WAS ENJOYED OVER THE
WEEKEND IS JUST A MEMORY AS GULF MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO THE AREA
COURTESY OF SOUTHERLY WINDS.
MODELS REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF A LONG
WAVE TROUGH...CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT. IF ANYTHING
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT VERSUS OTHER SHORT TERM
MODELS AND WILL LEAN IN THAT MODELS DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART
OF MISSOURI. AS THE PARENT LOW AND TROUGH LIFT TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST...FRONT WILL SINK TOWARDS THE STATE. BEST GUESS ON THE
TIMING WOULD TAKE THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE MISSOURI BORDER LATE
TUESDAY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY BUT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE EXCESSIVE. FORECAST GETS A TOUCH MORE
MUDDLED AFTER THAT AS THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WHERE THIS BOUNDARY
ENDS UP STALLING. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE OVER
THE SOUTH AND THIS IS HOW THE FORECAST WILL TREND FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE JUST A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE BUT
STILL CLOSE TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MUCH OF THE NATURAL STATE WILL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE
JUST ABOVE NORMAL...AND RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
WHILE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WEST OF THE
REGION...WILL SEE SEE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO HAVE TEMPS FRI
THROUGH SUN IN THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS THE WRN COUNTIES GETTING CLOSE TO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ON
SAT. HOWEVER...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY CREST THE TRIP DIGIT
MARK BY THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN AND SWRN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED
CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT. BY LATE SUN AND INTO MON...THE UPPER FLOW
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE NW FLOW OVER THE STATE...WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS RESULTING
LOWER TEMPS TO AROUND OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 73 91 71 86 / 10 40 40 30
CAMDEN AR 71 95 73 93 / 0 10 20 40
HARRISON AR 72 90 69 85 / 10 30 50 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 72 94 73 91 / 10 10 40 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 72 94 73 89 / 10 10 40 40
MONTICELLO AR 71 95 73 92 / 0 10 30 40
MOUNT IDA AR 72 94 73 90 / 10 10 40 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 72 90 70 85 / 20 40 50 20
NEWPORT AR 73 92 72 86 / 10 40 50 30
PINE BLUFF AR 72 94 73 91 / 10 10 30 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 72 93 72 88 / 10 20 50 40
SEARCY AR 73 93 72 87 / 10 20 50 40
STUTTGART AR 73 94 73 88 / 10 20 40 40
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...62
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
241 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO KEEP
US UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE
RAINFREE...ANY THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME COULD BE STRONG.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...THE REMNANTS FROM THE MCS/MCV WERE STILL MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SO
FAR...SOME PRETTY STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
STORMS...BUT THESE WIND CORES REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES WITH THIS.
FOLLOWING THIS LINE BUT THIS SHOULDN`T BE THE ONE THAT SPAWNS STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS.
A SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST LOOKS TO SPARK ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON HOW UNSTABLE WE GET AT THAT
TIME WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WILL PAN OUT.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN SO IT WOULD NOT
TAKE PARTICULAR "TALL" STORMS TO TAP INTO THE 50 KTS WIND ABOUT
18,000 FEET OFF THE DECK.
FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST FINAGLED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS DUE TO THE
CURRENT WEATHER TRENDS...FOLLOWING THE LINE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND ANTICIPATION OF ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS A LITTLE IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SINCE
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED ACTIVITY WOULD MAKE IT DOWN THERE AS
WELL.
HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS
WILL RAMP UP THROUGH 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE LOWER TO MID
80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE UP MAINLY AFTER
FIRE UP AFTER 300 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE CHANCES FOR DAMAGING WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN THEIR
WIND OUTLOOK FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...PORTION OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY INTO GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. CHECK OUR FACEBOOK POST AND
TWEET WITH THE GRAPHICS.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ENHANCED WORDING
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER WEST-SOUTHWEST
WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW. LOW LEVEL JET...850 MB...WILL
INCREASE TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK 60
TO 75 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. AT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWING STRUCTURES TO DEVELOP
WITH SUPERCELLS EVEN POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES.
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 60S ACROSS AREA. WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT AFTER AN ACTIVE PERIOD
THIS EVENING. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON TUESDAY. PWATS ARE
ONCE AGAIN VERY HIGH IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. FA IS IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75 KT JET AT H3 AND MLMUCAPES RCH
1000-1500 J/KG. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S TO
PERHAPS LOWER 90S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY AS FA REMAINS IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WHICH IS NOW UP TO 100 KTS.
IN ADDITION BULK SHEAR 0-6 KM REACHES 50 TO 60 KTS. LAPSE RATES
H8-H7 APPROACH 6 TO 6.5 C/KM AND MLMUCAPES REACH 1500-2500 J/KG
MAINLY ACROSS SERN HALF OF FA. PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH
RANGE AT LEAST INTO ERLY AFTERNOON. STRENGTH OF H5 TROF IS SUCH THAT
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH BOWING SEGMENTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LITTLE
IF ANY CONVECTION LEFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY FOR LATER NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A BREAK FROM
THE ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR FOR THU NT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SAT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF A COOL POOL ALOFT...AND DYNAMICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH
PASSAGE...A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY
FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THU NT INTO AT LEAST EARLY SAT.
FROM LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL CANADA...AND SLOWLY
TRACKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WELL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SOME MODELS SUGGEST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES ACROSS THE REGION AS EARLY AS SAT OR SAT
NT...PARTICULARLY THE 00Z/07 GFS AND ECMWF. THE 00Z/07 GEFS...ON THE
OTHER HAND...DO NOT REFLECT THIS FEATURE AND POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS...SUGGESTING THAT THE 00Z/07 DETERMINISTIC GFS MAY BE AN
OUTLIER. AT THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SAT AFTN
AND NIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO CHC BY SUNDAY...FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...IF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF
PROVE CORRECT...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM...THEY SHOULD INITIALLY BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THEN...AS LOW LEVEL
WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCUR SAT-SUN...TEMPS SHOULD TREND TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...ESPECIALLY SINCE NIGHTTIME MIN
TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. SO...EXPECT DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 75-80 RANGE IN VALLEYS FOR THU AND FRI...WITH 60S AND LOWER
70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD THEN WARM INTO THE
LOWER/MID 80S FOR VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR
SAT-SUN...ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND
LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THU NT/FRI AM...WITH PERHAPS
SOME 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MIN
TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES FOR FRI NT/SAT AM...WITH MAINLY LOWER
60S IN VALLEYS...AND 50S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN...EVEN WARMER FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...IT SHOULD
BECOME MORE HUMID AS WELL BY SAT NT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION HAS BECOME MOIST AND UNSTABLE. A ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL FIRE UP AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.
LOOKING THROUGH MODELS HAVE USED THE HRRR-3KM FOR GUIDANCE FOR
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR KALB
(22Z-00Z) AND KPSF (23Z-01Z). WHERE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE. WHILE
AT KGFL AND KPOU HAVE USED VCSH TO ADDRESS CONVECTION.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY LATE EVENING WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN. SOME AREAS OF FOG
AND/OR STRATUS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE
WHICH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. HAVE MVFR VIS IN TAFS WITH
SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS. AFTER SUNRISE MIXING BEGINS AND ANY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AND CLOUDS WOULD LIFT. CONVECTION ON TUESDAY SHOULD NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 18Z/TUESDAY END OF TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY LOOKING AT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
INTO THE 20S. WINDS WILL WEAKEN/DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHRA...TSRA.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TODAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT
TODAY...INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 45 TO
60 PERCENT ON TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 MPH TONIGHT...AND SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TODAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
THROUGH MID WEEK...SO ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME
AREA...THEN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1230 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO KEEP
US UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE
RAINFREE...ANY THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME COULD BE STRONG.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...THE REMNANTS FROM THE MCS/MCV WERE STILL MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SO
FAR...SOME PRETTY STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
STORMS...BUT THESE WIND CORES REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES WITH THIS.
FOLLOWING THIS LINE BUT THIS SHOULDN`T BE THE ONE THAT SPAWNS STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS.
A SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST LOOKS TO SPARK ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON HOW UNSTABLE WE GET AT THAT
TIME WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WILL PAN OUT.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN SO IT WOULD NOT
TAKE PARTICULAR "TALL" STORMS TO TAP INTO THE 50 KTS WIND ABOUT
18,000 FEET OFF THE DECK.
FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST FINAGLED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS DUE TO THE
CURRENT WEATHER TRENDS...FOLLOWING THE LINE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND ANTICIPATION OF ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS A LITTLE IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SINCE
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED ACTIVITY WOULD MAKE IT DOWN THERE AS
WELL.
HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS
WILL RAMP UP THROUGH 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE LOWER TO MID
80S IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE UP MAINLY AFTER
FIRE UP AFTER 300 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE CHANCES FOR DAMAGING WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN THEIR
WIND OUTLOOK FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...PORTION OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY INTO GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. CHECK OUR FACEBOOK POST AND
TWEET WITH THE GRAPHICS.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ENHANCED WORDING
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER WEST-SOUTHWEST
WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW. LOW LEVEL JET...850 MB...WILL
INCREASE TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK 60
TO 75 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. AT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWING STRUCTURES TO DEVELOP
WITH SUPERCELLS EVEN POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES.
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 60S ACROSS AREA. WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT AFTER AN ACTIVE PERIOD
THIS EVENING. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON TUESDAY. PWATS ARE
ONCE AGAIN VERY HIGH IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. FA IS IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75 KT JET AT H3 AND MLMUCAPES RCH
1000-1500 J/KG. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S TO
PERHAPS LOWER 90S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY AS FA REMAINS IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WHICH IS NOW UP TO 100 KTS.
IN ADDITION BULK SHEAR 0-6 KM REACHES 50 TO 60 KTS. LAPSE RATES
H8-H7 APPROACH 6 TO 6.5 C/KM AND MLMUCAPES REACH 1500-2500 J/KG
MAINLY ACROSS SERN HALF OF FA. PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH
RANGE AT LEAST INTO ERLY AFTERNOON. STRENGTH OF H5 TROF IS SUCH THAT
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH BOWING SEGMENTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LITTLE
IF ANY CONVECTION LEFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY FOR LATER NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A BREAK FROM
THE ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR FOR THU NT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SAT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF A COOL POOL ALOFT...AND DYNAMICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH
PASSAGE...A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY
FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THU NT INTO AT LEAST EARLY SAT.
FROM LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL CANADA...AND SLOWLY
TRACKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WELL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SOME MODELS SUGGEST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES ACROSS THE REGION AS EARLY AS SAT OR SAT
NT...PARTICULARLY THE 00Z/07 GFS AND ECMWF. THE 00Z/07 GEFS...ON THE
OTHER HAND...DO NOT REFLECT THIS FEATURE AND POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS...SUGGESTING THAT THE 00Z/07 DETERMINISTIC GFS MAY BE AN
OUTLIER. AT THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SAT AFTN
AND NIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO CHC BY SUNDAY...FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...IF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF
PROVE CORRECT...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM...THEY SHOULD INITIALLY BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THEN...AS LOW LEVEL
WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCUR SAT-SUN...TEMPS SHOULD TREND TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...ESPECIALLY SINCE NIGHTTIME MIN
TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. SO...EXPECT DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 75-80 RANGE IN VALLEYS FOR THU AND FRI...WITH 60S AND LOWER
70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD THEN WARM INTO THE
LOWER/MID 80S FOR VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR
SAT-SUN...ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND
LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THU NT/FRI AM...WITH PERHAPS
SOME 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MIN
TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES FOR FRI NT/SAT AM...WITH MAINLY LOWER
60S IN VALLEYS...AND 50S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN...EVEN WARMER FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...IT SHOULD
BECOME MORE HUMID AS WELL BY SAT NT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER IN THE
DAY INTO THIS EVENING. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ENTERING WESTERN NYS
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING E/NE THROUGH THIS MORNING. SHOULD THESE HOLD
TOGETHER...THEY MAY IMPACT KGFL BY 14Z-16Z...AND PERHAPS KPSF
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF...BEGINNING AROUND 19Z-21Z...AND LINGERING UNTIL
AROUND 01Z-03Z/TUE. AT KPOU...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE A LITTLE LESS...AND THE THREAT OCCURRING A BIT
LATER...GENERALLY 23Z-04Z.
SOME AREAS OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP AFTER
02Z-04Z/TUE IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS IN TAFS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON PRIOR RAINFALL...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON...TO 10-15 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB DUE TO CHANNELING OF WIND UP THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY AND ALSO SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM THE ADJACENT
HELDERBERGS/CATSKILLS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 8 KT MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHRA...TSRA.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TODAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT
TODAY...INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 45 TO
60 PERCENT ON TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 MPH TONIGHT...AND SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TODAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
THROUGH MID WEEK...SO ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME
AREA...THEN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
121 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCT TSRA NEAR ALL
TERMINALS BUT TRENDING INLAND FROM THE EAST COAST BY 21Z. SIMILAR
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY SO INTRODUCED VCTS AFT 12Z TO
INDICATE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT LATE NIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WILL BE QUITE
VARIABLE WITH A LIGHT EAST FLOW AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DISRUPTING
THAT DOMINANT PATTERN.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014/
UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING INTO THE COASTAL AND
METRO AREAS THIS MORNING. THE 12Z SOUNDING WAS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...WEAK LAPSE RATES...AND
AROUND 3300 J/KG CAPE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WAS SEEN IN THE
BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP
POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AND METRO AREAS THIS MORNING AND FOR THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IN SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE SITTING
TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE
MAIN QUESTION IS THE STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAY.
LOOKING AT THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS, THERE IS NOTHING THAT LOOKS
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE TODAY. CAPE IS GENERALLY LESS THAT 1000
JOULES, DCAPE IS RIGHT AROUND 500. THE NCAPE IS GENERALLY .1 OR
LESS, WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR EXCEPTIONS. 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES
ARE AROUND 5.5C/KM. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS JUST ABOVE 14000 FT. BUT
THE 500MB TEMPS ARE ABOUT -7.4C. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CAP. SO,
ALL IN ALL, LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL SEE PRETTY MUCH RUN OF THE MILL
THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE, HERE IS SOUTH FLORIDA, THERE SEEMS TO
ALWAYS BE A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS, SO WILL NOT RULE THEM
OUT. BUT THEY LOOK TO BE THE EXCEPTION, NOT THE RULE TODAY. OF
COURSE, THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING MAY TELL A DIFFERENT STORY. BUT FOR
NOW, WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST, MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. LOOKING AT THE
MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HRRR, IT SEEMS TO CONFIRM THE THOUGHT OF
RUN OF THE MILL TYPE STORMS. CURRENTLY, IT IS SHOWING MAX
DOWNDRAFT OF ONLY 2.5 M/S. ALSO, IT IS SHOWING THE MAIN THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE WESTERN LAKE REGION. IT DOES SHOW
MORE CAPE THAN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER, THAT JUST REINFORCES
THE THOUGHT OF THUNDERSTORMS BEING ABLE TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE THUNDERSTORM STRENGTHS MAY CHANGE DAY TO DAY, THE
WEATHER PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
NEXT WEEK, SO, EXPECT MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. SOME OF THEM MAY BECOME STRONG AT TIMES. TEMPERATURE
WISE, THAT ALSO LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY TYPICAL AS WELL, WITH HIGHS
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND 90 AND UP TO THE MID 90S FOR THE
INTERIOR.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE EAST COAST SITES
WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS
PUSHING INTO COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS MORNING FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. KEPT PRECIP MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR NOW BUT WILL
AMEND AS NECESSARY. EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z.
MARINE...
EXPECT TYPICAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FOR THE SURROUNDING WATERS.
NO SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS, BUT MAY ALSO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$C
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
111 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL FOCUS ON THE NEXT ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND FAR NORTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS. A LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION...WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION FOR ANY POTENTIAL SIGNALS OF STRONG WINDS...AS IT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO HANDEL THIS WIND THREAT WITH SPS`S UNLESS THE STORMS SHOW SIGNS
OF STRONGER WINDS. OTHERWISE...THIS LINE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT OUT
OF MY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TO BEGIN TO STALL OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THIS THREAT WILL MAINLY REMAIN SOUTH OF MY AREA. HOWEVER...I
DID LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE RATHER WARM
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO TOP OUT WELL INTO THE
80S. IT APPEARS THE SYNOPTIC WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT
ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM ALONG THE
SHORES OF COOK COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...AND THIS WOULD
LEAD TO SOME COOLER CONDITIONS THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY SHORT
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AMPLIFICATION...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO
AROUND 40 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. IT
APPEARS THE NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET AND MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
WILL SET UP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN IOWA AND INTO
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE EAST TO WEST
ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ALSO HENCE BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND SEVERE STORMS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION...NEAR THE TRACK OF
THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW.
IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THE EVOLVING COLD FRONT MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS IT
SHIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY
LOCALLY. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW ROBUST
THE CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA...GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF MOST
OF THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING ROBED FROM THE CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH...AND HENCE WEAKER MUCAPE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA. NEVERTHELESS...I WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE LOW END LIKELY POPS GIVEN THE RATHER STRONG SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
DIG ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...BUT NOT
ZERO...MAINLY DUE TO THE EARLY MORNING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LACK OF BETTER INSTABILITY.
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF MY AREA...BUT SHOULD
END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN SPITE OF
THIS...HOWEVER...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS DISTURBED. THIS ACTIVITY
WOULD LIKELY BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND
DIURNAL IN NATURE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR STORMS FOR
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER AND MUCH
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS AS THE FLOW BECOMES DIRECTED OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER TUESDAY WILL
NOT BE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST AT MDW FROM 1830-19Z AND
CHANCE LAKE BREEZE MAKES IT TO ORD.
* CHANCE OF TSRA LATE TONIGHT.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
MAINLY QUIET VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SPOTTY SHRA ARE POSSIBLE NEAR GYY IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE. THE LAKE BREEZE HAS MADE GOOD
PROGRESS TOWARD MDW AND MOVED TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT TO 1830Z.
HAVE SOME CONCERN BASED ON WNW WINDS CLOSE TO 10KT THAT BOUNDARY
COULD SLOW A BIT WHEN IT GETS CLOSE TO MDW...AND DELAY WIND SHIFT
SOME. FOR ORD...THE OPPOSING WNW FLOW HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF PUSHING
THE LAKE BREEZE BACK EAST OVER NORTHEAST COOK COUNTY. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE LAKE
BREEZE SHIFT OUT OF TAF AT ORD.
THERE ARE MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
THAT COULD SPUR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT WELL OF TO THE NORTHWEST AND
MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY MORE INTENSE TSRA
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS FROM NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL. MAINTENANCE OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IS MORE UNCERTAIN FARTHER
NORTH...BUT HAVE INDICATED A VCTS MENTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SCT SHRA/TSRA COULD BE IN THE TERMINAL AREAS A BIT
EARLIER THAN INDICATED IN TAF...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN
DIRECT IMPACTS. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
EAST TUESDAY MORNING...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BY MID-LATE AM...WITH
GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KT.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH IN LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT AT MDW...MEDIUM IN TIMING.
MEDIUM-HIGH THAT LAKE BREEZE WILL NOT MAKE IT TO ORD.
* LOW IN DIRECT TSRA IMPACTS AT TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM IN
MOST LIKELY TIMING OF TSRA BEING IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHC TSRA.
SUNDAY...SCHC TSRA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
203 AM CDT
WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GO AS SCHEDULED THIS MORNING AS
WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEST
WINDS 10-15 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS TURN SW OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...AND THEN VARIABLE/ONSHORE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS AFTN. ANOTHER LOW MOVES OVER THE LAKE
TUESDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE...WHILE THE NORTHERN THIRD WILL SEE EAST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THE LOW QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AND
MERGES WITH THE FIRST LOW OVER QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME W TO NW ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN MOVES IN MID WEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITH PERIODS OF
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND WINDS BECOME SOUTH 10-20 KT.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1254 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1042 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
15z/10am surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from
Chicago to near Quincy. Ahead of the boundary, a band of low
clouds blankets much of central Illinois. Latest radar imagery is
beginning to show a few showers developing within this band,
primarily along and south of a Danville...to Decatur...to
Jacksonville line. Both the 12z NAM and HRRR show showers and
thunderstorms becoming more widespread later this afternoon across
the far SE KILX CWA. Have updated the forecast to limit POPs to
the southern half of the CWA only, with the highest chances
along/south of I-70.
40-45kt LLJ is progged to develop across eastern Kansas into
northern Missouri tonight, triggering a cluster of thunderstorms
west of the Mississippi River. This convection is expected to
track eastward into central Illinois overnight, potentially
producing strong winds and heavy rainfall. The exact evolution and
track of the storms still remains in doubt: however, the timing
looks to be firmly after midnight. As such, have updated POPs
tonight to go with dry conditions during the evening except across
the far SE where a few thunderstorms may linger. Then have gone
with likely POPs across the board after midnight as the storm
complex arrives from the west. Zone update has already been
issued.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1254 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
Scattered thunderstorms will develop in advance of a weak cold
front this afternoon: however, based on latest satellite/radar
imagery, it appears the convection will remain south of the
central Illinois terminals. Next significant chance for convection
will hold off until late tonight when a complex of thunderstorms
tracks E/SE out of Missouri/Iowa. Exact evolution and track of
complex remains in question: however, latest guidance suggests it
may remain mostly south of the I-74 corridor. As a result, have
maintained only VCTS at the northern TAF sites overnight. Further
southwest closer to expected track of the storms, have included
TEMPO groups for thunder at both KSPI and KDEC between 07z and
11z. Once storms push off to the east early Tuesday morning, a
return to mostly sunny conditions with a NW wind of around 10 mph
is expected.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night
Much of central and southeast IL remains in a slight risk of
severe storms later today and tonight per SPC day1 outlook. Just
far ne CWA around Marshall county is outside this risk area. A
weakening cold front over se parts of WI/IA and nw MO early this
morning will push se into central IL during today. Most of
convection has been focused from ne IL ne into lower MI early this
morning though a few cells have recently appeared along an outflow
boundary from northern McLean county westward to around Macomb to
Burlington, IA. Daytime heating of very unstable airmass along
with some wind shear to bring increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon especially late over central
and southern areas. Then MCS to develop over central plains this
evening and spread east into central/southern IL overnight into
Tue morning and this too will have risk of severe storms and heavy
rains especially sw areas. Greatest threat of damaging winds and
tornadoes is over northern MO, southern IA and eastern Nebraska.
Very warm and humid today with highs in the upper 80s to near 90F.
Lows tonight in upper 60s north and lower 70s south.
MCS to diminish from west to east during Tue morning while
stronger cold front pushes into southeast IL Tue afternoon where
best chances of convection will be. SPC keeps slight risk of
severe storms south of our CWA in southern IL Tue. Have lingered a
chance of showers and thunderstorms in southeast IL Tue evening
mainly until sunset then dry weather returns rest of Tue night and
Wed as weak high pressure settles into the Midwest. Highs in the
lower 80s Tue central IL and mid 80s southeast IL and still humid.
Then less humid Wed with highs mostly in the lower 80s.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday
Extended models continue to show IL in a wnw upper level flow late
this week with upper level trof over the Ohio river valley and
upper level ridging in the west. Surface high pressure settling
into the Great Lakes region Thursday and bring dry weather through
Thu night along with more comfortable humidity levels with
dewpoints in the lower 60s and highs in the lower 80s with a few
upper 70s ne areas. As high pressure drifts east into New England
Friday will get a return southerly flow of warmer 80s and
gradually more humid air with dewpoints rising back into upper 60s
and lower 70s late this week. Also have disturbances tracking ese
from northern plains into the area from Friday afternoon into the
weekend bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Best
chances appears to be Friday night especially northern areas.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1111 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL FOCUS ON THE NEXT ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND FAR NORTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS. A LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION...WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION FOR ANY POTENTIAL SIGNALS OF STRONG WINDS...AS IT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO HANDEL THIS WIND THREAT WITH SPS`S UNLESS THE STORMS SHOW SIGNS
OF STRONGER WINDS. OTHERWISE...THIS LINE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT OUT
OF MY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TO BEGIN TO STALL OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THIS THREAT WILL MAINLY REMAIN SOUTH OF MY AREA. HOWEVER...I
DID LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE RATHER WARM
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO TOP OUT WELL INTO THE
80S. IT APPEARS THE SYNOPTIC WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT
ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM ALONG THE
SHORES OF COOK COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...AND THIS WOULD
LEAD TO SOME COOLER CONDITIONS THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY SHORT
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AMPLIFICATION...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO
AROUND 40 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. IT
APPEARS THE NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET AND MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
WILL SET UP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN IOWA AND INTO
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE EAST TO WEST
ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ALSO HENCE BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND SEVERE STORMS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION...NEAR THE TRACK OF
THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW.
IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THE EVOLVING COLD FRONT MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS IT
SHIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY
LOCALLY. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW ROBUST
THE CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA...GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF MOST
OF THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING ROBED FROM THE CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH...AND HENCE WEAKER MUCAPE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA. NEVERTHELESS...I WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE LOW END LIKELY POPS GIVEN THE RATHER STRONG SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
DIG ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...BUT NOT
ZERO...MAINLY DUE TO THE EARLY MORNING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LACK OF BETTER INSTABILITY.
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF MY AREA...BUT SHOULD
END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN SPITE OF
THIS...HOWEVER...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS DISTURBED. THIS ACTIVITY
WOULD LIKELY BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND
DIURNAL IN NATURE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR STORMS FOR
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER AND MUCH
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS AS THE FLOW BECOMES DIRECTED OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER TUESDAY WILL
NOT BE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* PSBL LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST AT MDW THIS
AFTN...WITH A CHANCE LAKE BREEZE MAKES IT ORD.
* CHANCE OF TSRA LATE TONIGHT.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IS APPARENT ON TMDW AND KLOT RADAR AND
PUSHING INLAND AT ABOUT 2-3 MPH. PURE EXTRAPOLATION SUPPORTS
CURRENT TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST AT MDW AND EVEN
ADDS CONCERN THAT LAKE BREEZE COULD MAKE IT TO ORD.
HOWEVER...CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF BOUNDARY SEEMS TO SUPPORT
PREVAILING IDEA IN GUIDANCE OF IT MAKING A BETTER INLAND PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF ORD AND NOT MAKING IT TO ORD. HAVE NOT ADDED ANY WIND
SHIFT TO ORD TAF BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING AT MDW IS ONLY MEDIUM GIVEN THAT LAKE BREEZES ARE
TYPICALLY NON-LINEAR IN THEIR MOVEMENT INLAND.
RC
FROM 12Z...
THE LINE OF STORMS IS NOW OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND EAST CENTRAL
IL THIS MORNING WHILE THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MI
THROUGH NW IL AND THEN INTO SE IA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST
AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS AFTN. THE MVFR FOG AND
CIGS WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS THE REST
OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN NW ARND 10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
AND A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. THINKING THE LAKE BREEZE
WILL ONLY IMPACT MDW AND GYY...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE IT WILL STALL
BEFORE REACHING MDW.
ANOTHER LOW/COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG IT. HAVE
LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THIS LINE OF
STORMS SO STILL AM ONLY CARRYING A PROB30 RIGHT NOW. THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT LOWER VSBY MORE THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED AS WELL.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM IN TIMING OF LAKE BREEZE SHIFT AT MDW...LOW IN LAKE
BREEZE MAKING IT TO ORD.
* MEDIUM IN TSRA LATE TONIGHT AND TIMING.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHC TSRA.
SUNDAY...SCHC TSRA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
203 AM CDT
WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GO AS SCHEDULED THIS MORNING AS
WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEST
WINDS 10-15 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS TURN SW OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...AND THEN VARIABLE/ONSHORE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS AFTN. ANOTHER LOW MOVES OVER THE LAKE
TUESDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE...WHILE THE NORTHERN THIRD WILL SEE EAST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THE LOW QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AND
MERGES WITH THE FIRST LOW OVER QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME W TO NW ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN MOVES IN MID WEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITH PERIODS OF
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND WINDS BECOME SOUTH 10-20 KT.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1042 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1042 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
15z/10am surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from
Chicago to near Quincy. Ahead of the boundary, a band of low
clouds blankets much of central Illinois. Latest radar imagery is
beginning to show a few showers developing within this band,
primarily along and south of a Danville...to Decatur...to
Jacksonville line. Both the 12z NAM and HRRR show showers and
thunderstorms becoming more widespread later this afternoon across
the far SE KILX CWA. Have updated the forecast to limit POPs to
the southern half of the CWA only, with the highest chances
along/south of I-70.
40-45kt LLJ is progged to develop across eastern Kansas into
northern Missouri tonight, triggering a cluster of thunderstorms
west of the Mississippi River. This convection is expected to
track eastward into central Illinois overnight, potentially
producing strong winds and heavy rainfall. The exact evolution and
track of the storms still remains in doubt: however, the timing
looks to be firmly after midnight. As such, have updated POPs
tonight to go with dry conditions during the evening except across
the far SE where a few thunderstorms may linger. Then have gone
with likely POPs across the board after midnight as the storm
complex arrives from the west. Zone update has already been
issued.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 651 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
A frontal boundary will stall in the vicinity of the central
Illinois terminals today. However, the threat of shower/storms for
most of the 12Z TAF valid time is fairly minimal. Aside from the
next hour or so at KCMI & KDEC...do not really expect much
precipitation coverage until 06Z Tuesday or later. Once some MVFR
cigs in the vicinity of the front mix out/and or lift early this
morning...VFR conditions should prevail outside of any heavier
thunderstorms later tonight. However...confidence in the details
is too low to mention at this time.
Bak
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night
Much of central and southeast IL remains in a slight risk of
severe storms later today and tonight per SPC day1 outlook. Just
far ne CWA around Marshall county is outside this risk area. A
weakening cold front over se parts of WI/IA and nw MO early this
morning will push se into central IL during today. Most of
convection has been focused from ne IL ne into lower MI early this
morning though a few cells have recently appeared along an outflow
boundary from northern McLean county westward to around Macomb to
Burlington, IA. Daytime heating of very unstable airmass along
with some wind shear to bring increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon especially late over central
and southern areas. Then MCS to develop over central plains this
evening and spread east into central/southern IL overnight into
Tue morning and this too will have risk of severe storms and heavy
rains especially sw areas. Greatest threat of damaging winds and
tornadoes is over northern MO, southern IA and eastern Nebraska.
Very warm and humid today with highs in the upper 80s to near 90F.
Lows tonight in upper 60s north and lower 70s south.
MCS to diminish from west to east during Tue morning while
stronger cold front pushes into southeast IL Tue afternoon where
best chances of convection will be. SPC keeps slight risk of
severe storms south of our CWA in southern IL Tue. Have lingered a
chance of showers and thunderstorms in southeast IL Tue evening
mainly until sunset then dry weather returns rest of Tue night and
Wed as weak high pressure settles into the Midwest. Highs in the
lower 80s Tue central IL and mid 80s southeast IL and still humid.
Then less humid Wed with highs mostly in the lower 80s.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday
Extended models continue to show IL in a wnw upper level flow late
this week with upper level trof over the Ohio river valley and
upper level ridging in the west. Surface high pressure settling
into the Great Lakes region Thursday and bring dry weather through
Thu night along with more comfortable humidity levels with
dewpoints in the lower 60s and highs in the lower 80s with a few
upper 70s ne areas. As high pressure drifts east into New England
Friday will get a return southerly flow of warmer 80s and
gradually more humid air with dewpoints rising back into upper 60s
and lower 70s late this week. Also have disturbances tracking ese
from northern plains into the area from Friday afternoon into the
weekend bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Best
chances appears to be Friday night especially northern areas.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
426 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHILE A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
AREA BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
SCATTERED CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SAG THROUGH
NORTHWEST INDIANA. ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
PEAK HEATING APPROACHES...BUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAY WORK AGAINST
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS WEAK FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
CENTRAL ZONES THIS EVENING...BEFORE WASHING OUT. CONVECTION MAY TEND
TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK...BUT WITH DECENT 850MB FLOW OVER THE
AREA...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER DARK AS WELL. WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING TONIGHT ALL AREAS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH DEEP SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
MOST OF THE MODEL DATA INDICATE AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS COMPLEX LOOKS TO REACH
THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE ON TUESDAY...PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS COMPLEX WILL BE AIDED BY A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...SO THINK THIS COMPLEX
HAS GOOD POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR AWHILE. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS STARTING AT SUNRISE TUESDAY...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS BY AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COMPLEX PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES STRONGER BY THE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY...SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE COMPLEX EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY STILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS
GOING THERE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE ON THE WARM SIDE. WILL NUDGE DOWN THE GUIDANCE
NUMBERS A CATEGORY DURING THOSE PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS LOOK OK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL END THE WORK WEEK ON A DRY NOTE. THEN THE
PATTERN WILL RETURN TO AN UNSETTLED ONE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS RETURN
FLOW OF WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS
AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVING ALONG A
BOUNDARY WILL MEAN RENEWED AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 072100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
LOOKS LIKE TSRA WILL STAY AWAY FROM KIND BUT SOME WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT VCTS MENTION. MVFR CEILINGS LOOK TO PERSIST A
COUPLE OF HOURS LONGER. AT KBMG ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA BASED
ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN TSRA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTERACT WITH AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND RESULT IN RENEWED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HRRR IS DEPICTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY AROUND AND SOUTH OF I-70. TRIED TO SHOW THIS WITH EITHER -TS
OR VCTS GROUPS IN TAFS. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY
AFTER SUNSET BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES VERY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS WAS PUSHED BACK BASED ON LATEST
SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS. HAVE TSTMS INTRODUCED AT KLAF AROUND
10Z AND START THUNDER AT KHUF/KIND AT 12Z AND AND HOUR OR TWO
LATER TO GET TO KBMG. THERE IS STILL PLENTY UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO TSTM COVERAGE BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS...SOME QUITE HEAVY. FOR NOW ONLY INDICATED MFVR IN
TAFS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS FLIGHT CATEGORY COULD VERY WELL NEED
TO BE LOWERED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20 KNOTS TODAY AND AFTER 15Z TUESDAY. TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO
DROP TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/50
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
231 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHILE A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
AREA BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
SCATTERED CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SAG THROUGH
NORTHWEST INDIANA. ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
PEAK HEATING APPROACHES...BUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAY WORK AGAINST
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS WEAK FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
CENTRAL ZONES THIS EVENING...BEFORE WASHING OUT. CONVECTION MAY TEND
TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK...BUT WITH DECENT 850MB FLOW OVER THE
AREA...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER DARK AS WELL. WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING TONIGHT ALL AREAS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH DEEP SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
MOST OF THE MODEL DATA INDICATE AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS COMPLEX LOOKS TO REACH
THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE ON TUESDAY...PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS COMPLEX WILL BE AIDED BY A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...SO THINK THIS COMPLEX
HAS GOOD POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR AWHILE. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS STARTING AT SUNRISE TUESDAY...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS BY AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COMPLEX PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES STRONGER BY THE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY...SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE COMPLEX EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY STILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS
GOING THERE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE ON THE WARM SIDE. WILL NUDGE DOWN THE GUIDANCE
NUMBERS A CATEGORY DURING THOSE PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS LOOK OK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL END THE WORK WEEK ON A DRY NOTE. THEN THE
PATTERN WILL RETURN TO AN UNSETTLED ONE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS RETURN
FLOW OF WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS
AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVING ALONG A
BOUNDARY WILL MEAN RENEWED AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 071800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTERACT WITH AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND RESULT IN RENEWED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HRRR IS DEPICTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY AROUND AND SOUTH OF I-70. TRIED TO SHOW THIS WITH EITHER -TS
OR VCTS GROUPS IN TAFS. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY
AFTER SUNSET BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES VERY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS WAS PUSHED BACK BASED ON LATEST
SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS. HAVE TSTMS INTRODUCED AT KLAF AROUND
10Z AND START THUNDER AT KHUF/KIND AT 12Z AND AND HOUR OR TWO
LATER TO GET TO KBMG. THERE IS STILL PLENTY UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO TSTM COVERAGE BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS...SOME QUITE HEAVY. FOR NOW ONLY INDICATED MFVR IN
TAFS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS FLIGHT CATEGORY COULD VERY WELL NEED
TO BE LOWERED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20 KNOTS TODAY AND AFTER 15Z TUESDAY. TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO
DROP TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
119 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
A WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING IT. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM UPSTREAM AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK FROM WEDNESDAY ON...ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
EARLIER CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN A DECAYING MODE APPEARS TO BE TIED
TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THE JET WEAKENS WITH TIME.
OTHERWISE...APPEARS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THIS
FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
MAY REDEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON HOURS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...BUT
EXTENSIVE LOWER CLOUD EXPANDING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS MAY
DELAY OR HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. THIS MORNING/S
UPPER AIR INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
STORMS LATER TODAY. GOING POP FORECAST STILL LOOKS OK.
GIVEN THE EXPANDING LOW CLOUD TRENDS RECENTLY...WILL LOWER THE HIGHS
TODAY A CATEGORY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
LINE OF STORMS STRETCHES FROM MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS
MORNING...BUT HAS SHOWN LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST BEYOND
THIS. THIS LINE MAY IMPACT THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND WILL CONCENTRATE THE HIGHEST POPS THERE EARLY ON. AS
THE DAY WEARS ON AND THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE
AREA...WILL CONCENTRATE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AREA IS UNDER SLIGHT RISK...AND THIS
IS REASONABLE AS AT LEAST MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AND WEAK TO
MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT.
ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK AND FEW CHANGES REQUIRED.
HOWEVER...COULD REQUIRE ADJUSTMENT LATER TODAY DEPENDING ON
EXPANSE OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST TO GO DRY FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. IN THE MEANTIME...SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE BOUNDARY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OF ONE
OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES UPSTREAM THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AT THIS
TIME.
CONSENSUS TEMPS THROUGHOUT APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW TWEAKS.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST DAYS THIS WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
ALTHOUGH EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES IN
TIMING VARIOUS UPPER WAVES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
AREA...THEY ALL POINT TO WESTERN RIDGING WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THEY ALSO AGREE THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW OF WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER WAVES IN THE MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH A LATE WEEKEND
FRONTAL SYSTEM SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AND REGIONAL
ALLBLEND CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ON.
BELOW NORMAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
LOOK GOOD ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THEN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 071800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTERACT WITH AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND RESULT IN RENEWED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HRRR IS DEPICTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY AROUND AND SOUTH OF I-70. TRIED TO SHOW THIS WITH EITHER -TS
OR VCTS GROUPS IN TAFS. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY
AFTER SUNSET BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES VERY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS WAS PUSHED BACK BASED ON LATEST
SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS. HAVE TSTMS INTRODUCED AT KLAF AROUND
10Z AND START THUNDER AT KHUF/KIND AT 12Z AND AND HOUR OR TWO
LATER TO GET TO KBMG. THERE IS STILL PLENTY UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO TSTM COVERAGE BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS...SOME QUITE HEAVY. FOR NOW ONLY INDICATED MFVR IN
TAFS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS FLIGHT CATEGORY COULD VERY WELL NEED
TO BE LOWERED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20 KNOTS TODAY AND AFTER 15Z TUESDAY. TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO
DROP TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JAS
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
313 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
Currently monitoring visible satellite this afternoon where multiple
boundaries are positioned across the region. A weak boundary was
tracking southeast through the CWA while a stronger area of outflow
winds was pushing southward into southern NE and far northern KS. A
weak warm front resided near the KS/NE border while the stronger
cold front was located over southern SD. Remnant cloud cover from
this morning`s showers were finally exiting east central KS,
allowing temps to quickly rise into the 90s, as heat indices
approach the low 100s. Dewpoints continue to mix down into the low
and middle 60s. On the water vapor in the mid levels, two vorticity
maxima were noted over northern NE and a stronger wave dropping southeast
from North Dakota.
Late this afternoon, surface CAPE near 3000 J/KG while effective
shear increases between 30 and 50 kts is supportive of strong to severe
convection. Main limiting factor for surface based convection is the
capping inversion holding across much of the area as seen on the 19Z
KTOP RAOB. Latest 4-KM WRF, HRRR, and RUC keep convection at bay
until after 00Z but could not entirely rule out a few updrafts
developing along the leading outflow boundary or warm front in
vicinity of KS/NE border. If a storm develops, it will be capable of
large hail and damaging winds.
Highest chances for severe convection reside after 00Z as scattered
storms along the reinforcing cold front and upper trough shift south
and east across Nebraska, northeast Kansas, and northern Missouri. the
progressive nature of the system, in addition to stout forward
propagating Corfidi vectors approaching 55 to 60 kts signal damaging
winds to be the primary hazards with this evening`s storms. Large
hail is also possible. Locally heavy rainfall will depend on the
speed of the line and any training convection that occurs towards
central KS along the boundary. Tornado potential is low in far
northern KS where the frontal boundary and weak low level shear
maximizes near 15 kts. Likely precip chances were focused over
northern, northeast, and east central areas based on the position of
the upper trough axis as the main line of storms quickly shifts
southeast overnight.
Guidance is on track to clear precip through by Tuesday mid morning
as skies become mostly sunny during the afternoon. A cooler and stable
airmass in the system`s wake will only bring temps to the 80s for
highs. Northerly winds increase between 10 and 15 mph sustained.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
Wed/Thurs...Should have a cool night Tuesday night as skies clear
and cooler airmass with lower dewpoints slides southward into the
forecast area. Strong sunshine and deeper mixing on Wednesday
should return high temperatures back into the middle 80s east to
upper 80s west. Still some consensus that front retreats back
northeast overnight Wednesday night into Thursday and brings a
chance for storms as it does so, although coverage may be shut
down quickly as warm temps and cap return aloft by the late
afternoon Thursday. Eastern counties may be able to stay a few
degrees cooler depending on how fast clouds and precip chances
diminish.
As upper flow becomes slightly northwest into Thursday night,
passing wave still progged to generate an MCS mainly north of our
area then sliding east. Kept slight chances as some models slide
this boundary into our forecast area. Some discrepancies in the
extended as EC lays this boundary over the area through the
weekend while GFS is farther north and a warmer drier solution.
The GFS ensembles favor the warmer pattern and have left the
extended as such.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
VFR seen through afternoon before a line of TSRA impacts terminals
aft 02Z. Confidence on timing is not exact with short term
guidance varying the speed of the cold front between 01Z and 04Z.
Strong and variable wind gusts are possible near the leading edge
of TSRA. MVFR visibility is likely under convection as FROPA veers
southerly winds to the north at or above 12 kts sustained.
Thunder clears the TAF sites 09-10Z with VFR conditions returning.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
309 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
...Updated Long Term section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
Tonight:
The main focus for tonight is where convection will be located and how
severe. Right now, visible satellite imagery shows some developing cumulus
across the Plains of east-central Colorado. Expect further development
of cumulus into northwest Kansas through the afternoon. This activity
is along a frontal boundary. Convective allowing models break out thunderstorms
this evening with the best chances along the I-70 corridor. Storms may
extend all the way down to Highway 96, though, later tonight. As far
as severity, some of the models want to mix out current dewpoints, which,
so far, is not happening as much as the models indicate. Running the
thermodynamic and wind-related parameters through the Large Hail Parameter
(LHP) comes up with a value of 6. This basically suggests that hail
could potentially be up to the size of golf balls. Not really sure if
we will get a sustained weakly rotating updraft or not, so hail could
be smaller. There is not a threat of tornadoes. There could be 60+ mph
outflow winds, as an inverted-v thermodynamic profile is expected. Have
the highest pops for Trego and Ellis counties and then taper values
quickly southward as thunderstorms are not expected along and south
of a line from Coolidge to St. John. The most recent HRRR has storms
south of this line, however, this model tends to overdo cold pools and
resultant upscale growth. Overnight lows will be in the 60s/70s.
Tomorrow:
Much cooler temperatures are expected for tomorrow as the aforementioned
front sinks south of the region. Have lowered maximums as the majority
of the models are now cooler with "cold" air advection in the wake of
the front. Expecting maximums mostly in the mid 80s along with 10-20
mph N/NE winds. There could be some storms along and south of the Arkansas
river...have slight pops in after 21Z, but most of the precipitation
will be during the long term period.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
The cold front which will come down Tuesday will slow its southward
push and weaken Tuesday Night. The frontal zone, around 800mb will
be across the northern Panhandles northeastward along the KS-OK
border, which will be a focus for at least isolated or widely
scattered thunderstorms. It is still unclear whether a small
mesoscale convective system (MCS) will develop along the frontal
zone or not (and if so, whether it will be this far north into
southwest Kansas or not). For now, we will keep Chance POPs (25+)
across far southwest Kansas from roughly Elkhart to Meade with
Slight Chance (15-24) from roughly Scott City to Stafford. The front
will dissolve by Wednesday, however temperatures will still be mild
by early/mid July standards with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Any thunderstorms Wednesday through early/mid evening should be
confined to the higher terrain west of the southwest Kansas region.
Warm frontogenesis will increase in the 06-12Z time frame early
Thursday morning in the 850-700mb layer, and we will continue to
carry Chance POPs across central and south-central Kansas. The
updated forecast does reduce the POPs along/west of Highway 283,
though. The summer ridge will build in the mid-upper troposphere
with lower troposphere responding with quite a bit warmer
temperatures in the +27 to +29C range at 850mb. Even slightly warmer
temperatures Friday will support afternoon surface temperatures in
the 99 to 101F territory. We will carry some Slight Chance POPs in
the western/northwester zones for mainly diurnal lee trough/higher
terrain storms which may drift into western Kansas.
As we head into the upcoming weekend, we will start to see some
amplification occurring in the jet stream pattern cross
northwestern North America, with a pronounced ridge developing along
the Pacific Coast of British Columbia. This would lead to downstream
troughing throughout much of the rest of Canada into the Upper
Midwest region of the CONUS. What this would mean for southwestern
Kansas is the eventual frontal passage, perhaps as early as late
Saturday (ECMWF) or Sunday (Canadian GEM). During the 14-17 July
time frame, there is a large degree of uncertainty in how the upper
tropospheric pattern will play out, but the ECMWF does suggest a
much cooler and wetter scenario during this 8-10 Day time frame. To
a lesser degree, the GFS does hint at this, but is also quite a bit
delayed in longwave troughing across the northern CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
Convective potential is still the highest at KHYS this evening as
all the convective allowing models are in fair agreement that
there will be no convection farther south. Have included a tempo
group as a result. Other concern is wind shift with fropa late
tonight. NNE-NE winds 15-25 kt possible through overnight pd across
the terminals.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 86 64 88 / 10 20 20 20
GCK 66 85 63 89 / 20 20 20 20
EHA 67 85 64 91 / 10 30 30 20
LBL 69 87 65 92 / 10 30 30 20
HYS 66 85 63 88 / 50 10 10 10
P28 72 89 67 89 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
227 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014
...Update to short term...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
Tonight:
The main focus for tonight is where convection will be located and how
severe. Right now, visible satellite imagery shows some developing cumulus
across the Plains of east-central Colorado. Expect further development
of cumulus into northwest Kansas through the afternoon. This activity
is along a frontal boundary. Convective allowing models break out thunderstorms
this evening with the best chances along the I-70 corridor. Storms may
extend all the way down to Highway 96, though, later tonight. As far
as severity, some of the models want to mix out current dewpoints, which,
so far, is not happening as much as the models indicate. Running the
thermodynamic and wind-related parameters through the Large Hail Parameter
(LHP) comes up with a value of 6. This basically suggests that hail
could potentially be up to the size of golf balls. Not really sure if
we will get a sustained weakly rotating updraft or not, so hail could
be smaller. There is not a threat of tornadoes. There could be 60+ mph
outflow winds, as an inverted-v thermodynamic profile is expected. Have
the highest pops for Trego and Ellis counties and then taper values
quickly southward as thunderstorms are not expected along and south
of a line from Coolidge to St. John. The most recent HRRR has storms
south of this line, however, this model tends to overdo cold pools and
resultant upscale growth. Overnight lows will be in the 60s/70s.
Tomorrow:
Much cooler temperatures are expected for tomorrow as the aforementioned
front sinks south of the region. Have lowered maximums as the majority
of the models are now cooler with "cold" air advection in the wake of
the front. Expecting maximums mostly in the mid 80s along with 10-20
mph N/NE winds. There could be some storms along and south of the Arkansas
river...have slight pops in after 21Z, but most of the precipitation
will be during the long term period.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
This extended period will begin with Tuesday night. A small short
wave in the upper atmosphere will be coming northeast from the
southwest, with low and mid-level moisture overriding a front which
will be across New Mexico and Oklahoma. Just slight chances for
storms at first in our southwest corner, followed by a brief period
of 30 percent Pops. A warm front will then get pushed northeastward
late Tuesday night, and the small 20 percent thunderstorm chances
will advance northeast with the front, in the form of a NW to SE
oriented 20 to 40 mile wide band. Precip chances will diminish
toward Wednesday morning, as the front out races the upper level
support. Late Wednesday, a lee side trough will trigger a few
thunderstorms in our west and southwest zones, with another upper
short wave trough traveling southwest through Western Kansas
Wednesday night. Since plenty of low level moisture will be in
place when the upper trough moves through, 30 to 40 percent chances
for thunderstorms seems appropriate, especially in our eastern zones
Wednesday night. There could be some good rainfall amounts in the
Hays to St. John areas Wednesday night. Then the upper high pressure
ridge will build in across the western parts of the southern
plains Thursday, and cut off our chances for widespread rain. Each
afternoon a lee side trough will form, and on Friday evening and
night, as well as on both Saturday and Sunday evenings, and there
will be slight chances for thunderstorms in our west. On Monday, a
small upper low pressure wave forms in far western Kansas and
moves across Kansas. This will help aid storms form north of the
I-70 corridor Sunday night, and in our northeast and east zones
Monday.
Wednesday will start out relatively mild, with maximum temperatures
around 90 degrees. Then the warm air advances back into Western
Kansas. 850 mb temps near 30C in our west Thursday, ranging down to
25C in our east zones will yield highs Thursday in the upper 90s
west to the lower 90s east. Max Temperatures will be very similar
Friday through Sunday. When that upper low moves across Monday,
plenty of clouds will be present, and highs will be considerably
lower in the mid to upper 80s.
Minimum temperatures will average in the middle 60s on Thursday and
again on Monday. For the Friday through Sunday stretch, minimums
will be the lower to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
Convective potential is still the highest at KHYS this evening as
all the convective allowing models are in fair agreement that
there will be no convection farther south. Have included a tempo
group as a result. Other concern is wind shift with fropa late
tonight. NNE-NE winds 15-25 kt possible through overnight pd across
the terminals.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 86 64 90 / 10 20 20 20
GCK 66 85 63 91 / 20 20 20 20
EHA 67 85 64 93 / 10 30 30 20
LBL 69 87 65 91 / 10 30 30 20
HYS 66 85 63 89 / 50 10 10 10
P28 72 89 67 90 / 10 20 30 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
417 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND SRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH
THROUGH NRN MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO. ONE WEAK SHRTWV IN CNTRL MN
SUPORTED SCT SHRA/TSRA FROM ERN MN INTO CNTRL WI...WHILE A MORE
PROMINENT SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER WRN NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SFC...GUSTY WNW WINDS PREVAILED WITH A 995 MB LOW PRES OVER NRN
ONTARIO(NEAR CYTS).
TONIGHT...THE HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
THE HEAVIER PCPN AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES WHERE THE GREATER
FORCING(700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV) AND INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED AS THE ND SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS...NMS
SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS FARTHER NORTH TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR EAST
OF THE KEWEENAW. THUNDER WAS ALSO ONLY INDCLUDED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH.
TUESDAY...EXPECT THAT HIGHER PCPN CHANCES IN THE MORNING TO DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL PCPN
AMOUNTS SHOULD AGAIN BE GREATEST OVER SRN CWA. THE COMBINATION OF
THICKER CLOUDS AND NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
REINFORCED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BY A SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG) THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FIRST
WAVE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER WAVE WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE WINNIPEG AT 00Z WEDNESDAY AND
ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF IT MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. WILL TRANSITION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THAT TIME. THERE IS LIMITED CAPE...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE
AND POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES (700-500MB AT 6-6.5C/KM) THOUGHT
THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AND HAVE SHOWN SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH.
BEHIND THIS WAVE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS ARE COOLING TO 6-7C ON WEDNESDAY...AND COMBINED
WITH MORNING CLOUDS/RAIN AND NORTHERLY WINDS OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR...IT WILL LEAD TO A BELOW NORMAL DAY ACROSS THE U.P. EXPECT
MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH COOLER VALUES EAST
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND MAYBE REACHING 70 NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER
WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PWATS
AROUND 45 PERCENT OF NORMAL UNDER THE HIGH MOVING THROUGH SHOULD
LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT OVER SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED INTERIOR TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE LOW END OF
GUIDANCE AND HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND 40. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND INTO THE LOW-MID 70S OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WITH LAKE
BREEZES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
EAST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE
WAY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE NEXT WAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AFFECTS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
THAT NEXT WAVE WILL PUSH A LOW EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA...WITH
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FRIDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE SLIDING EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW INCREASING CHANCES DURING THAT PERIOD
AND THEN DIMINISHING LATE IN THE NIGHT AND INTO THE NEXT
MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS VARY BEHIND THIS WAVE/FRONT WITH THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT THE LASTEST TREND IS FOR IT TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A COOLER THAN NORMAL PERIOD
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT GUSTY WNW WINDS TO ALSO CONTINUE THEN DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND BRING INCREASING MID CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT IWD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. AS WINDS SHIFT NE
LATE TONIGHT LOOK FOR MVFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KIWD DROPPING TO IFR
TUE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW BY TUE
MORNING. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH THE RAIN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THAT COULD HELP DROP CIGS TO IFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
ANY STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRESSURE NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIFT TOWARD JAMES BAY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI TONIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY WILL SINK
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
414 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND SRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH
THROUGH NRN MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO. ONE WEAK SHRTWV IN CNTRL MN
SUPORTED SCT SHRA/TSRA FROM ERN MN INTO CNTRL WI...WHILE A MORE
PROMINENT SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER WRN NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SFC...GUSTY WNW WINDS PREVAILED WITH A 995 MB LOW PRES OVER NRN
ONTARIO(NEAR CYTS).
TONIGHT...THE HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
THE HEAVIER PCPN AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES WHERE THE GREATER
FORCING(700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV) AND INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED AS THE ND SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS...NMS
SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS FARTHER NORTH TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR EAST
OF THE KEWEENAW. THUNDER WAS ALSO ONLY INDCLUDED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH.
TUESDAY...EXPECT THAT HIGHER PCPN CHANCES IN THE MORNING TO DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL PCPN
AMOUNTS SHOULD AGAIN BE GREATEST OVER SRN CWA. THE COMBINATION OF
THICKER CLOUDS AND NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT GUSTY WNW WINDS TO ALSO CONTINUE THEN DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND BRING INCREASING MID CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT IWD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. AS WINDS SHIFT NE
LATE TONIGHT LOOK FOR MVFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KIWD DROPPING TO IFR
TUE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW BY TUE
MORNING. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH THE RAIN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THAT COULD HELP DROP CIGS TO IFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
ANY STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRESSURE NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIFT TOWARD JAMES BAY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI TONIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY WILL SINK
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
136 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR PUSHING COLD FRONT AND ASSOC CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING
EAST OF THE CWA. WNW FLOW UPSTREAM ALSO REVEALS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
OF NOTE...ONE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER ND...ANOTHER PRODUCING
CONVECTION OVER SRN ALBERTA AND A THIRD ROTATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
FROM NRN SASKATCHEWAN. A COUPLE OF THESE UPSTREAM WAVES WILL IMPACT
WEATHER TONIGHT OVER UPPER MI.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AS
Q-VECT DIV SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
MIXING OF 12-14C 8H TEMPS TO THE SFC UNDER SUNNY SKIES SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND EAST TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE WI BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING WITH THE
ADVANCE OF Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES
DIVING SE FROM SRN ALBERTA AND NRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NRN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY. ENVIRONMENT OF MLCAPE 200-500 J/KG SHOULD
SUPPORT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA INTO NRN WI AND SW UPPER MI.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY JUST SOUTH INTO NRN WI IN
CYCLONIC FLOW OF MID-LVL TROUGH...MODELS SHOW Q-VECT CONV SPREADING
NE THROUGH THE CWA SO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD HIGHER CHC POPS FOR
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA NE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. UNDER NE-E
FLOW...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW
THROUGH NE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 S
SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
THE SFC STRONGEST LOW AT 12Z TUESDAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL LIKELY BE OVER N LAKE MI AND FAR NW LOWER MI...WITH THE BROAD
500MB TROUGH KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER SET UP ACROSS THE AREA.
UNLIKE THE WARM MUGGY AIR OF THIS MORNING...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING AROUND 17C...850MB TEMPS AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 10C.
THE BEST CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
LAKE MI TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW
FAR N THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL BE ABLE TO INVADE...WITH THE
SMALLER SCALE SOLUTIONS GOING NEARLY DRY FOR MONDAY FOR ALL BUT THE
S CENTRAL PORTIONS OF UPPER MI. AT THIS POINT...AROUND 0.2IN OF
PRECIP IS FCST IS FCST FOR S CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
ANOTHER ELONGATED WAVE IN THE 500MB NW FLOW WILL PUSH IN OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS EACH SYSTEM TO ROUND THE 500MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY LOOSES
MORE AND MORE MOISTURE. LOOK FOR THE 500MB TROUGH TO FINALLY EXIT E
OF UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DRY BUT COOL WEATHER WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS STILL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE SFC HIGH EDGES CLOSER TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WARMER AIR ON S-SW
WINDS WILL RETURN. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES...AS 850MB TEMPS RISE BACK TO AROUND 13C. A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER THE W HALF FRIDAY...AND EXPANDING TO MUCH
OF UPPER LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING W
TO E OVERNIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST
MODELS AT THIS POINT TO RESULT IN LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY-SUNDAY. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS APPROX 6HRS FASTER THAN
THE GFS TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI...EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW OVER FAR N ONTARIO/S LAKE HURON. A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DOESN/T LOOK TO BE IN THE CARDS FOR NOW...AS
COOLER W TO NW FLOW RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE
MORE 70 DEGREE DAYS AHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT GUSTY WNW WINDS TO ALSO CONTINUE THEN DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND BRING INCREASING MID CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT IWD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. AS WINDS SHIFT NE
LATE TONIGHT LOOK FOR MVFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KIWD DROPPING TO IFR
TUE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW BY TUE
MORNING. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH THE RAIN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THAT COULD HELP DROP CIGS TO IFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
LINGERING FOG OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF
ANY STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS/. LOW PRESSURE NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIFT TOWARD JAMES BAY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI TONIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY WILL SINK
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
627 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION...WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT THEN
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO NORTH CAROLINA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST 100MB JUST ABOVE 1500J/KG...
EXTENDING TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. THERE...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HAD INCREASED...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED JUST WEST
OF STANLY COUNTY AT 1830Z. THE LATEST HRRR WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO MAKE
IT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO SLIGHTLY MORE DRIER AND STABLE AIR OVERALL.
HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM IN THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND WILL ALSO RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD
SOUTHERN SAMPSON COUNTY BASED UPON THE NEARBY MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE MIXING RATIO ON THE LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM SHOULD DIMINISH DIURNALLY
AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE LARGELY STABLE
OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
SREF PROBABILITIES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE LOW OR DO NOT REGISTER
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE 850MB THETA-E VALUES INCREASE SOME
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE PREVAILING WIND REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...SOME LOW CLOUD ADVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...
EXTRAPOLATED NORTHEAST FROM WHERE THE HRRR WRF DENOTES LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUCH DEVELOPMENT MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SOME OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER PART OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NOTICEABLE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS OFF OF
THE SURFACE REMAIN IN THE 20S KNOTS IN THE MAIN. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF
THIS MONDAY MORNING...FOR LOWS MAINLY 67 TO 72 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
THE INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E ACTUALLY MOVES EAST DURING TUESDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT THERE IS A RELATIVE
MINIMUM OF MOISTURE FORECAST ON K INDICES AND 850MB THETA-E OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 18Z TUESDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS ARE DEFINITELY CAPPED
TO DEEP CONVECTION ON TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS HAVE MINIMAL POPS AND NO QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
BETWEEN 12Z TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. WRF GUIDANCE IS LARGELY DRY
AS WELL...EVEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE A LITTLE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
ALOFT SHARPENS SOME TO OUR WEST. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE EFFECTS OF
THIS WITH SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AS THE 850MB
AND 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 30KT TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
COMBINATION OF SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD
LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF ABOUT KIXA TO KMEB TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BUFR SOUNDINGS BECOME MORE MOIST ALOFT TUESDAY
NIGHT TOWARD KRDU AND KGSO...WHILE THEY REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE
TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S...THOUGH
WITH SOME DEW POINT MIXING DURING THE DAY AIDED BY SOME SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT AND A DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER AS FORECAST BY
BUFR SOUNDINGS...HEAT INDICES SHOULD NOT BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
ACTUAL HIGHS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME MODEST MIXING...THE 25 TO 30KT
925MB WINDS...AND AN INCREASE IN AT LEAST HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS...
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON
AVERAGE THAN THOSE EXPECTED TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT 69 TO 73.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
FOR WED THROUGH THU NIGHT: STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL ARRIVE IN THIS TIME WINDOW... PEAKING ON THU. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC... WHILE ALOFT... BROAD TROUGHING SETTING
UP JUST TO OUR WEST WILL DRAW IN NRN STREAM ENERGY AS WELL AS PULL
IN PERTURBATIONS FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE TROUGH
ITSELF WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK AT THIS LATITUDE WITH MINIMAL HEIGHT
FALLS (10-20 M AT MOST) AND MLLR VALUES UNDER 6.5 C/KM... THE ADDED
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION (MAXIMIZING IN -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING) DESPITE MARGINAL VALUES OF BOTH INSTABILITY
(MLCAPE TOPPING OUT AT 500-800 J/KG WED AND 600-1000 J/KG IN THE
EAST THU) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR (UNDER 20 KTS IN THE SE CWA BUT BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE OVER NRN AND WRN NC AT 25-30 KTS). PW VALUES ARE
PROJECTED TO RISE ABOVE 1.8 IN (AND EVEN APPROACH 2.0 IN IN SOME
SPOTS) ON WED AND PERSIST THROUGH THU... AND ACCORDING TO BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS MOISTENING INCLUDES THE MIXED-PHASE -10C TO -
30C LAYER IMPORTANT FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE WED... THEN
SHIFT THE BEST POP FOCUS (40-50%) TO THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS (AND THE BULK OF ITS NRN STREAM
ENERGY) EASES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION WHILE DAMPENING. GIVEN
THAT THE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE IDEALLY
SPATIALLY ALIGNED WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY... WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE. BUT ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE... AND THE LOW MBE TRANSLATIONAL SPEED
AND ABOVE-NORMAL PW SUGGEST THAT SOME TRAINING CELLS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THE DAMPENING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP THE WEAKENING SYNOPTIC FRONT AND ITS COOLER AIR TO OUR NNW...
SO EXPECT THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
NC... BUT WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WED 89 NW TO 96 SE. HIGHS
THU CLOSER TO NORMAL... 88-92... WITH NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES AND
PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER. MUGGY LOWS WED NIGHT 67-74.
FOR FRI-MON: ANOTHER STORMY DAY FRI. AS THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS QUICKLY TO OUR NORTH... THE QUICKLY DYING PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL NC FRI BEFORE NEARLY DISAPPEARING BY
SAT MORNING. WE`LL SEE A DRYING COLUMN FROM THE NW WITH NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHTLY POSITIVE HEIGHT TENDENCIES AND SUBPAR DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
15-20 KTS... BUT WITH PW REMAINING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SE
CWA AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AS WELL AS MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG... WILL NEED TO RETAIN
GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THE SE FRI... WITH A BIT LOWER POPS OVER THE
REST OF THE CWA... AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. (NORMAL
HIGH/LOW FOR THIS TIME FRAME IS 90/70 IN RALEIGH AND 88/69 IN
GREENSBORO.) THE HIGHER PW AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST SAT AND PW
REMAINS AT OR BELOW 1.5 IN INTO SUN MORNING BEFORE RISING AGAIN SUN
AFTERNOON... WITH VERY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. BELIEVE WE`LL SEE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS SAT... FOCUSED ON SUBTLE
BOUNDARIES... TRENDING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER POPS SUN AS THE PW
RECOVERS. THE 00Z/07 ECMWF SHOWS A STRENGTHENING VORTEX OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR SUN INTO MON... STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN OR THE GFS. WHILE THIS CAN PROBABLY BE SET ASIDE AS A
TOO-FAR-SOUTH SOLUTION... THE 12Z/07 ECMWF WAS VERY SIMILAR IN THIS
RESPECT TO ITS 00Z RUN. REGARDLESS... IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A
SOUTHWARD NUDGE OF THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TOWARD
NC... AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE IMPROVING MOISTURE AND UPWARD TREND
OF LATE-DAY MUCAPE TO 1000-2000 J/KG SUN AND 1500-2500 J/KG MON...
WILL RESUME A PATTERN OF TYPICAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
WITH BETTER COVERAGE FROM THE TRIANGLE/WADESBORO TO THE EAST.
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND UPWARD DURING THIS PERIOD... SO
WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL BY MON. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS
ASSOC/W STRATUS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...THOUGH PRIMARILY AT THE
FAY TERMINAL BETWEEN 09-12Z TUE. A S/SW BREEZE AT 4-8 KT OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME BREEZE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST AT 12-14 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD SHOWERS/
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING...
PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH WED MORNING. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE WEEK
(WED-FRI) IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR
OVER THE REGION ON THU/FRI. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
304 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION...WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT THEN
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO NORTH CAROLINA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST 100MB JUST ABOVE 1500J/KG...
EXTENDING TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. THERE...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HAD INCREASED...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED JUST WEST
OF STANLY COUNTY AT 1830Z. THE LATEST HRRR WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO MAKE
IT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO SLIGHTLY MORE DRIER AND STABLE AIR OVERALL.
HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM IN THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND WILL ALSO RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD
SOUTHERN SAMPSON COUNTY BASED UPON THE NEARBY MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE MIXING RATIO ON THE LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM SHOULD DIMINISH DIURNALLY
AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE LARGELY STABLE
OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
SREF PROBABILITIES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE LOW OR DO NOT REGISTER
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE 850MB THETA-E VALUES INCREASE SOME
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE PREVAILING WIND REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...SOME LOW CLOUD ADVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...
EXTRAPOLATED NORTHEAST FROM WHERE THE HRRR WRF DENOTES LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUCH DEVELOPMENT MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SOME OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER PART OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NOTICEABLE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS OFF OF
THE SURFACE REMAIN IN THE 20S KNOTS IN THE MAIN. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF
THIS MONDAY MORNING...FOR LOWS MAINLY 67 TO 72 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
THE INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E ACTUALLY MOVES EAST DURING TUESDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT THERE IS A RELATIVE
MINIMUM OF MOISTURE FORECAST ON K INDICES AND 850MB THETA-E OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 18Z TUESDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS ARE DEFINITELY CAPPED
TO DEEP CONVECTION ON TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS HAVE MINIMAL POPS AND NO QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
BETWEEN 12Z TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. WRF GUIDANCE IS LARGELY DRY
AS WELL...EVEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE A LITTLE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
ALOFT SHARPENS SOME TO OUR WEST. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE EFFECTS OF
THIS WITH SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AS THE 850MB
AND 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 30KT TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
COMBINATION OF SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD
LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF ABOUT KIXA TO KMEB TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BUFR SOUNDINGS BECOME MORE MOIST ALOFT TUESDAY
NIGHT TOWARD KRDU AND KGSO...WHILE THEY REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE
TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S...THOUGH
WITH SOME DEW POINT MIXING DURING THE DAY AIDED BY SOME SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT AND A DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER AS FORECAST BY
BUFR SOUNDINGS...HEAT INDICES SHOULD NOT BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
ACTUAL HIGHS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME MODEST MIXING...THE 25 TO 30KT
925MB WINDS...AND AN INCREASE IN AT LEAST HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS...
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON
AVERAGE THAN THOSE EXPECTED TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT 69 TO 73.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
FOR WED THROUGH THU NIGHT: STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL ARRIVE IN THIS TIME WINDOW... PEAKING ON THU. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC... WHILE ALOFT... BROAD TROUGHING SETTING
UP JUST TO OUR WEST WILL DRAW IN NRN STREAM ENERGY AS WELL AS PULL
IN PERTURBATIONS FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE TROUGH
ITSELF WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK AT THIS LATITUDE WITH MINIMAL HEIGHT
FALLS (10-20 M AT MOST) AND MLLR VALUES UNDER 6.5 C/KM... THE ADDED
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION (MAXIMIZING IN -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING) DESPITE MARGINAL VALUES OF BOTH INSTABILITY
(MLCAPE TOPPING OUT AT 500-800 J/KG WED AND 600-1000 J/KG IN THE
EAST THU) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR (UNDER 20 KTS IN THE SE CWA BUT BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE OVER NRN AND WRN NC AT 25-30 KTS). PW VALUES ARE
PROJECTED TO RISE ABOVE 1.8 IN (AND EVEN APPROACH 2.0 IN IN SOME
SPOTS) ON WED AND PERSIST THROUGH THU... AND ACCORDING TO BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS MOISTENING INCLUDES THE MIXED-PHASE -10C TO -
30C LAYER IMPORTANT FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE WED... THEN
SHIFT THE BEST POP FOCUS (40-50%) TO THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS (AND THE BULK OF ITS NRN STREAM
ENERGY) EASES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION WHILE DAMPENING. GIVEN
THAT THE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE IDEALLY
SPATIALLY ALIGNED WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY... WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE. BUT ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE... AND THE LOW MBE TRANSLATIONAL SPEED
AND ABOVE-NORMAL PW SUGGEST THAT SOME TRAINING CELLS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THE DAMPENING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP THE WEAKENING SYNOPTIC FRONT AND ITS COOLER AIR TO OUR NNW...
SO EXPECT THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
NC... BUT WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WED 89 NW TO 96 SE. HIGHS
THU CLOSER TO NORMAL... 88-92... WITH NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES AND
PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER. MUGGY LOWS WED NIGHT 67-74.
FOR FRI-MON: ANOTHER STORMY DAY FRI. AS THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS QUICKLY TO OUR NORTH... THE QUICKLY DYING PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL NC FRI BEFORE NEARLY DISAPPEARING BY
SAT MORNING. WE`LL SEE A DRYING COLUMN FROM THE NW WITH NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHTLY POSITIVE HEIGHT TENDENCIES AND SUBPAR DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
15-20 KTS... BUT WITH PW REMAINING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SE
CWA AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AS WELL AS MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG... WILL NEED TO RETAIN
GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THE SE FRI... WITH A BIT LOWER POPS OVER THE
REST OF THE CWA... AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. (NORMAL
HIGH/LOW FOR THIS TIME FRAME IS 90/70 IN RALEIGH AND 88/69 IN
GREENSBORO.) THE HIGHER PW AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST SAT AND PW
REMAINS AT OR BELOW 1.5 IN INTO SUN MORNING BEFORE RISING AGAIN SUN
AFTERNOON... WITH VERY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. BELIEVE WE`LL SEE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS SAT... FOCUSED ON SUBTLE
BOUNDARIES... TRENDING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER POPS SUN AS THE PW
RECOVERS. THE 00Z/07 ECMWF SHOWS A STRENGTHENING VORTEX OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR SUN INTO MON... STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN OR THE GFS. WHILE THIS CAN PROBABLY BE SET ASIDE AS A
TOO-FAR-SOUTH SOLUTION... THE 12Z/07 ECMWF WAS VERY SIMILAR IN THIS
RESPECT TO ITS 00Z RUN. REGARDLESS... IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A
SOUTHWARD NUDGE OF THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TOWARD
NC... AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE IMPROVING MOISTURE AND UPWARD TREND
OF LATE-DAY MUCAPE TO 1000-2000 J/KG SUN AND 1500-2500 J/KG MON...
WILL RESUME A PATTERN OF TYPICAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
WITH BETTER COVERAGE FROM THE TRIANGLE/WADESBORO TO THE EAST.
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND UPWARD DURING THIS PERIOD... SO
WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL BY MON. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR MUCH OF
THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS
IN THE TEENS KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WHILE STAYING NEAR
20 TO 25KT AROUND 2000FT OVERNIGHT...THEN THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 20KT. THE
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE
THAN LIGHT FOG...EXTRAPOLATION OF THE HRRR WRF MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT TOWARD
KFAY...AND THE TAF FOR KFAY HAS A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THERE
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND WEST LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH THEIR ACCOMPANYING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS MOISTURE AND...AGAIN...THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND A DECREASED CHANCE
FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION...WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT THEN
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO NORTH CAROLINA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST 100MB JUST ABOVE 1500J/KG...
EXTENDING TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. THERE...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HAD INCREASED...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED JUST WEST
OF STANLY COUNTY AT 1830Z. THE LATEST HRRR WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO MAKE
IT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO SLIGHTLY MORE DRIER AND STABLE AIR OVERALL.
HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM IN THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND WILL ALSO RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD
SOUTHERN SAMPSON COUNTY BASED UPON THE NEARBY MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE MIXING RATIO ON THE LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM SHOULD DIMINISH DIURNALLY
AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE LARGELY STABLE
OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
SREF PROBABILITIES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE LOW OR DO NOT REGISTER
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE 850MB THETA-E VALUES INCREASE SOME
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE PREVAILING WIND REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...SOME LOW CLOUD ADVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...
EXTRAPOLATED NORTHEAST FROM WHERE THE HRRR WRF DENOTES LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUCH DEVELOPMENT MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SOME OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER PART OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NOTICEABLE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS OFF OF
THE SURFACE REMAIN IN THE 20S KNOTS IN THE MAIN. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF
THIS MONDAY MORNING...FOR LOWS MAINLY 67 TO 72 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
THE INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E ACTUALLY MOVES EAST DURING TUESDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT THERE IS A RELATIVE
MINIMUM OF MOISTURE FORECAST ON K INDICES AND 850MB THETA-E OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 18Z TUESDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS ARE DEFINITELY CAPPED
TO DEEP CONVECTION ON TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS HAVE MINIMAL POPS AND NO QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
BETWEEN 12Z TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. WRF GUIDANCE IS LARGELY DRY
AS WELL...EVEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE A LITTLE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
ALOFT SHARPENS SOME TO OUR WEST. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE EFFECTS OF
THIS WITH SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AS THE 850MB
AND 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 30KT TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
COMBINATION OF SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD
LEAD TO AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF ABOUT KIXA TO KMEB TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BUFR SOUNDINGS BECOME MORE MOIST ALOFT TUESDAY
NIGHT TOWARD KRDU AND KGSO...WHILE THEY REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE
TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S...THOUGH
WITH SOME DEW POINT MIXING DURING THE DAY AIDED BY SOME SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT AND A DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER AS FORECAST BY
BUFR SOUNDINGS...HEAT INDICES SHOULD NOT BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
ACTUAL HIGHS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME MODEST MIXING...THE 25 TO 30KT
925MB WINDS...AND AN INCREASE IN AT LEAST HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS...
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON
AVERAGE THAN THOSE EXPECTED TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT 69 TO 73.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE THE NEXT MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL
HELP TO SHARPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AND LEAD TO A
BETTER CHANCE OF LATE DAY/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT. THE LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING
A FAIRLY DEEP DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WITH THE EXPECTED LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. THUS... IF ANY STRONG CONVECTION IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA EXPECT WE WOULD HAVE A THREAT FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE IS A BIT MIXED ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION
WILL MAKE IT OUR AREA THOUGH. THUS... WILL ONLY RAISE POPS INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING... WITH MOST OF THE LINGERING CONVECTION
DYING OFF BY 06Z OR SO AT THE LATEST. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1420S TO 1430S. THUS... EXPECT
WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 90S... WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
90S IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... WHERE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND CLOUDS
WILL BE THE LEAST. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING... WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA... ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 NW TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE... WITH EVEN SOME
MID 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.... WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY CROSSING THE
REGION ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT. THIS
COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY PW`S CLIMBING TO
AROUND 2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...
WITH CHANCES EACH DAY PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE DEEP SHEAR INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 KT
RANGE. THUS... THIS COMBINED WITH POSSIBLY MODERATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG... POSSIBLY 2000 J/KG)... THINK WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST A SMALL SEVERE THREAT... AS WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME
MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY EACH DAY. GIVEN THE MOIST AND WARM ATMO...
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION.... GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL BE
A BIT COOLER WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND STORMS. THUS... WILL GO
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90/LOWER 90S. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY SATURDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
DRYING ALOFT AND RESULTANT MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. STILL THINK WE WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED TO MAYBE WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO AT LEAST THE 1420S. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE LOWER 90S... WITH
POSSIBLY SOME MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR MUCH OF
THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS
IN THE TEENS KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WHILE STAYING NEAR
20 TO 25KT AROUND 2000FT OVERNIGHT...THEN THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 20KT. THE
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE
THAN LIGHT FOG...EXTRAPOLATION OF THE HRRR WRF MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT TOWARD
KFAY...AND THE TAF FOR KFAY HAS A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THERE
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND WEST LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH THEIR ACCOMPANYING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS MOISTURE AND...AGAIN...THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND A DECREASED CHANCE
FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
215 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION...WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT THEN
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO NORTH CAROLINA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM MONDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...AND TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS HAD WARMED
QUICKLY WITH READINGS ALREADY NEAR 80. UPPER-AIR ANALYSES AND THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHEAR AXIS OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE STATE...BUT THE AIR MASS WAS PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH THE KGSO
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AT AN INCH ON THE 12Z SOUNDING AND BELOW
1.2 INCHES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THESE VALUES REMAIN BELOW THE NORMAL 1.5 INCHES FOR
JULY. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIR MASS OVER THE VAST MAJORITY
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION. THE RAP DOES
FORECAST A NARROW RIBBON OF LIFT AND RELATIVELY HIGH 850MB THETA-E
VALUES LATE TODAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KGSB TO KCTZ...AND
WHILE THE RAP HAS NO QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...THE LATEST HRRR WRF DOES FORECAST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TOWARD KCTZ AND HARRELLS LATE IN THE DAY...
COINCIDENT WITH A MODEST INCREASE ON THE RAP FORECAST 300MB WIND
TOWARD THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE RETAINED THE
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EXCEPT THE FAR
SOUTHEAST...AND DUE TO THE FAST WARMING THIS WARMING NUDGED HIGHS
UPWARD ROUGHLY A DEGREE MAINLY TOWARD THE TRIAD. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS KNOTS WITH
MIXING BUT IN GENERAL A SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO JUST OVER
10 MPH SHOULD PREVAIL. TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
DOMINATE AS AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO
CURRENT NIGHTS DUE TO AIR MASS MODIFICATION...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 AM MONDAY...
LEESIDE TROUGH SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO A S/W ALOFT MOVING E-SE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS STRENGTHENING OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN SW SURFACE WINDS WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS 9-12KTS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. THIS
STOUT SW FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL AID
TO BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 90S. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT MAY INTERACT WITH AVAILABLE (BUT STILL RATHER LIMITED)
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT 69-
74.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE THE NEXT MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL
HELP TO SHARPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AND LEAD TO A
BETTER CHANCE OF LATE DAY/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT. THE LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING
A FAIRLY DEEP DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WITH THE EXPECTED LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. THUS... IF ANY STRONG CONVECTION IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA EXPECT WE WOULD HAVE A THREAT FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE IS A BIT MIXED ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION
WILL MAKE IT OUR AREA THOUGH. THUS... WILL ONLY RAISE POPS INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING... WITH MOST OF THE LINGERING CONVECTION
DYING OFF BY 06Z OR SO AT THE LATEST. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1420S TO 1430S. THUS... EXPECT
WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 90S... WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
90S IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... WHERE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND CLOUDS
WILL BE THE LEAST. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING... WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA... ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 NW TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE... WITH EVEN SOME
MID 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.... WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY CROSSING THE
REGION ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT. THIS
COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY PW`S CLIMBING TO
AROUND 2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...
WITH CHANCES EACH DAY PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE DEEP SHEAR INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 KT
RANGE. THUS... THIS COMBINED WITH POSSIBLY MODERATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG... POSSIBLY 2000 J/KG)... THINK WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST A SMALL SEVERE THREAT... AS WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME
MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY EACH DAY. GIVEN THE MOIST AND WARM ATMO...
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION.... GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL BE
A BIT COOLER WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND STORMS. THUS... WILL GO
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90/LOWER 90S. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY SATURDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
DRYING ALOFT AND RESULTANT MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. STILL THINK WE WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED TO MAYBE WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO AT LEAST THE 1420S. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE LOWER 90S... WITH
POSSIBLY SOME MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR MUCH OF
THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS
IN THE TEENS KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WHILE STAYING NEAR
20 TO 25KT AROUND 2000FT OVERNIGHT...THEN THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 20KT. THE
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE
THAN LIGHT FOG...EXTRAPOLATION OF THE HRRR WRF MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT TOWARD
KFAY...AND THE TAF FOR KFAY HAS A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THERE
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND WEST LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH THEIR ACCOMPANYING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS MOISTURE AND...AGAIN...THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND A DECREASED CHANCE
FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...WSS/DJF
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
117 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
CHANGES TO GRIDS THIS MORNING GENERALLY SURROUND THE PROGRESS OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION...AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. FAIRLY LARGE
COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN BRUSHING THROUGH LOWER
BRULE LOCATIONS THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH FORMIDABLE COLD
POOL AND CLOUD SHIELD BEING SUSTAINED BY MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION. CURRENT THOUGHTS
IS A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF THIS WILL GROSSLY IMPACT THE POTENTIAL
FOR DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...BEFORE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT/WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AREA PERHAPS SET
UP TO BE MORE DYNAMICALLY AND THERMODYNAMICALLY IMPACTED WILL THE
THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA...BUT EVEN THERE CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW OUT OF THE COLD POOL AREA WILL IMPACT ANY
SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION. HI RES MODELS ARE FOCUSING
GENERALLY ON SOME DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND WHILE SHEAR IS DECENT...
INSTABILITY WILL BE A FRACTION OF WHAT MOST MODELS INDICATE /RUC
AND HRRR WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S MOST AREAS/.
RATHER HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD ON THERMAL POTENTIAL QUITE A BIT
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST HALF...AND NUDGED DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AS WELL GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF THERE IS ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL... LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY A KBKX/KSLB AND EASTWARD LINE AT
THIS TIME FOR MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
AND IN ZONE OF STRONGER LIFT FORCING ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONG
WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS TWO SHORT-WAVES MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER ND AT 08Z AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO MN. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THIS TROUGH. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER MN ARE MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION BUT WITH THE MID
LEVELS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MOVE INTO AREAS AROUND HWY 14 IN SD AND MN. A LARGE AREA OF MID
LEVEL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND IS SPREADING
INTO WESTERN SD. THIS IS AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONGER WAVE MOVING INTO
EASTERN MT. BY 12Z...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE APPROACHING THE
MISSOURI RIVER IN CENTRAL SD ESPECIALLY WITH LAPSE RATES INCREASING
TO 7 C/KM OVER THIS AREA.
BOTH OF THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. AS NOTED ABOVE...LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND
7 C/KM THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AND WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND RAPIDLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SD AND MN. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO
IOWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. REALLY EXPECT TWO AREAS
OF FOCUS. THE FIRST IS WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY NEAR THE NEBRASKA
AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION CLOSER TO
THE NEBRASKA AND SD BORDER LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN WILL SPREAD
INTO NW IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SECOND AREA IS
WITH THE UPPER WAVE MOVING FROM MT INTO WRN MN BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MUCH OF SW MN TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT
TODAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS CERTAINLY A LOT OF SHEAR IN PLACE WITH 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE REAL
QUESTION IS INSTABILITY. WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY ENOUGH CAPE WILL DEVELOP TO SUSTAIN
STRONG UPDRAFTS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD. HOWEVER...WITH A LITTLE
MORE SUN IN NW IA THIS MORNING...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG...MAY RESULT TO PRODUCE STRONG UPDRAFTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR MAY ACTUALLY SUPPORT A FEW
SUPERCELLS. THE 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR REMAINS LOW SO THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...HAIL MAY GET AS LARGE AS GOLF BALLS WITH GUSTS TO 60
OR 70 MPH POSSIBLE IN A FEW STORMS. STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE
EAST THIS EVENING MOVING TOWARD I35 BY 06Z.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE REALLY DEPENDENT UPON SUNSHINE. WITH MORE
CLOUDS EXPECTED IN SW MN...KEPT HIGHS AROUND 80 WITH LOW TO MID 80S
ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
ANTICIPATED IN SE SD...HIGHS MAY ALSO STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 IN THESE
AREAS AS WELL. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
DRY WEATHER AND MODESTLY COOL MIDSUMMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA THEN BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST. WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
AND DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BRING SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE OF STORMS SHOULD PEAK THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT SHORT WAVE
PROVIDING A LARGE SCALE LIFT BOOSTER. THEREAFTER STORM CHANCES
BECOME MARGINAL AND HAZY WITH CANADIAN SHORT WAVES BATTLING ROCKIES
RIDGING TO PRODUCE A PATTERN WHICH COULD BE WARM OR COOL DEPENDING
ON WHICH OPERATIONAL MODEL IS SELECTED...WITH JUST AS MUCH DOUBT ON
ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A MOSTLY MARGINAL
MENTION EACH DAY AS PER EXTENDED GUIDANCE WITH AN INDICATION OF A
CONSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AND A DRY PATTERN DEVELOPING
ABOUT THE END OF THE PERIOD...OR AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC SHOW THIS...BUT THE EC LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY COOL AS IT
DROPS A CANADIAN UPPER LOW SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WILL
NOT DISCOUNT THIS YET GIVEN THAT FOR A FEW DAYS THE EC WAS NOT
SHOWING THE MONSTER UPPER RIDGING AND HOT SPELL THAT THE GFS WAS
TRYING TO BUILD...AND FROM WHICH THE GFS HAS NOW RETREATED...BUT
SAID UPPER LOW DOES LOOK TOO STRONG TOO FAR SOUTH FOR MIDSUMMER ON
THE EC AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
LARGE COLD POOL SPREADING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WILL
LIMIT SHORT TERM POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A KHON TO
KFSD TO KSLB LINE...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGH THE MISSOURI
VALLEY. CEILINGS SHOULD BE LARGELY VFR OUTSIDE SOME SHORT
DURATION MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SOME NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS BY LATER MORNING TUESDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1125 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
CHANGES TO GRIDS THIS MORNING GENERALLY SURROUND THE PROGRESS OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION...AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. FAIRLY LARGE
COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN BRUSHING THROUGH LOWER
BRULE LOCATIONS THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH FORMIDABLE COLD
POOL AND CLOUD SHIELD BEING SUSTAINED BY MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION. CURRENT THOUGHTS
IS A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF THIS WILL GROSSLY IMPACT THE POTENTIAL
FOR DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...BEFORE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT/WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AREA PERHAPS SET
UP TO BE MORE DYNAMICALLY AND THERMODYNAMICALLY IMPACTED WILL THE
THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA...BUT EVEN THERE CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW OUT OF THE COLD POOL AREA WILL IMPACT ANY
SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION. HI RES MODELS ARE FOCUSING
GENERALLY ON SOME DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND WHILE SHEAR IS DECENT...
INSTABILITY WILL BE A FRACTION OF WHAT MOST MODELS INDICATE /RUC
AND HRRR WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S MOST AREAS/.
RATHER HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD ON THERMAL POTENTIAL QUITE A BIT
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST HALF...AND NUDGED DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AS WELL GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF THERE IS ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL... LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY A KBKX/KSLB AND EASTWARD LINE AT
THIS TIME FOR MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
AND IN ZONE OF STRONGER LIFT FORCING ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONG
WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS TWO SHORT-WAVES MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER ND AT 08Z AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO MN. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THIS TROUGH. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER MN ARE MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION BUT WITH THE MID
LEVELS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MOVE INTO AREAS AROUND HWY 14 IN SD AND MN. A LARGE AREA OF MID
LEVEL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND IS SPREADING
INTO WESTERN SD. THIS IS AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONGER WAVE MOVING INTO
EASTERN MT. BY 12Z...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE APPROACHING THE
MISSOURI RIVER IN CENTRAL SD ESPECIALLY WITH LAPSE RATES INCREASING
TO 7 C/KM OVER THIS AREA.
BOTH OF THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. AS NOTED ABOVE...LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND
7 C/KM THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AND WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND RAPIDLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SD AND MN. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO
IOWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. REALLY EXPECT TWO AREAS
OF FOCUS. THE FIRST IS WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY NEAR THE NEBRASKA
AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION CLOSER TO
THE NEBRASKA AND SD BORDER LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN WILL SPREAD
INTO NW IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SECOND AREA IS
WITH THE UPPER WAVE MOVING FROM MT INTO WRN MN BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MUCH OF SW MN TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT
TODAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS CERTAINLY A LOT OF SHEAR IN PLACE WITH 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE REAL
QUESTION IS INSTABILITY. WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY ENOUGH CAPE WILL DEVELOP TO SUSTAIN
STRONG UPDRAFTS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD. HOWEVER...WITH A LITTLE
MORE SUN IN NW IA THIS MORNING...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG...MAY RESULT TO PRODUCE STRONG UPDRAFTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR MAY ACTUALLY SUPPORT A FEW
SUPERCELLS. THE 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR REMAINS LOW SO THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...HAIL MAY GET AS LARGE AS GOLF BALLS WITH GUSTS TO 60
OR 70 MPH POSSIBLE IN A FEW STORMS. STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE
EAST THIS EVENING MOVING TOWARD I35 BY 06Z.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE REALLY DEPENDENT UPON SUNSHINE. WITH MORE
CLOUDS EXPECTED IN SW MN...KEPT HIGHS AROUND 80 WITH LOW TO MID 80S
ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
ANTICIPATED IN SE SD...HIGHS MAY ALSO STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 IN THESE
AREAS AS WELL. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
DRY WEATHER AND MODESTLY COOL MIDSUMMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA THEN BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST. WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
AND DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BRING SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE OF STORMS SHOULD PEAK THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT SHORT WAVE
PROVIDING A LARGE SCALE LIFT BOOSTER. THEREAFTER STORM CHANCES
BECOME MARGINAL AND HAZY WITH CANADIAN SHORT WAVES BATTLING ROCKIES
RIDGING TO PRODUCE A PATTERN WHICH COULD BE WARM OR COOL DEPENDING
ON WHICH OPERATIONAL MODEL IS SELECTED...WITH JUST AS MUCH DOUBT ON
ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A MOSTLY MARGINAL
MENTION EACH DAY AS PER EXTENDED GUIDANCE WITH AN INDICATION OF A
CONSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AND A DRY PATTERN DEVELOPING
ABOUT THE END OF THE PERIOD...OR AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC SHOW THIS...BUT THE EC LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY COOL AS IT
DROPS A CANADIAN UPPER LOW SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WILL
NOT DISCOUNT THIS YET GIVEN THAT FOR A FEW DAYS THE EC WAS NOT
SHOWING THE MONSTER UPPER RIDGING AND HOT SPELL THAT THE GFS WAS
TRYING TO BUILD...AND FROM WHICH THE GFS HAS NOW RETREATED...BUT
SAID UPPER LOW DOES LOOK TOO STRONG TOO FAR SOUTH FOR MIDSUMMER ON
THE EC AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
WEAK HIGH TO THE SOUTH DRIVING LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING. MAIN CONCERN IS POTENTIALLY TWO ROUNDS OF TSRA MIDDAY AND
THIS EVENING. COMPLEX IN SW SD WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY LIKELY NEW DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE TRACKING THROUGH SD AROUND 18-20Z. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT STORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG BOUNDARY SETTING UP NEAR THE NEBRASKA
STATE LINE. SO HAVE KEPT HON DRY BUT THAT IS NOT A GUARANTEE. AT
FSD AND SUX, HAVE TSRA CHANCES IN AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A BREAK AND THEN MORE RAIN AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS. CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR AREA AROUND SUNSET
BUT HAVE KEPT SCT CLOUDS IN TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
LEFT OVER. THAT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR OUT AFTER 06Z BY WHICH TIME
WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONNELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
353 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND SPILL
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE...WILL BRING AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST
IN THE FAR WEST TUESDAY...AND THEN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE PIEDMONT AREAS ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT MONDAY...
INCREASING MOISTURE IN SW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH EXPANSICE CU
FIELD ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT AT 330 PM EDT RADAR SHOWING NO
ECHOES IN BLACKSBURG CWA...CLOSEST IN FAR SOUTHERN NC. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SOME OF EVENING AND
EXPAND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH MAINLY ALONG BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS GIVEN
WHERE MAX SBCAPES ARE THIS AFTERNOON AND LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING
ANY ISOLD POP UPS NOW MORE ACROSS CENTRAL PART OF FCST AREA. LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT ANYTHING WILL ACTUALLY POP UP...AND ANY CELLS MAY
NOT EVEN BE ABLE TO PRODUCE THUNDER...BUT DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH NOTHING MENTIONED IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE ANY CONVECTION WILL DIE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
LOOKING AT TRENDS IN CONVECTION UPSTREAM VIA SATELLITE AND
RADAR...THINKING THAT MOST MODELS OVERDOING AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
AND THUS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THAT COULD REACH INTO FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS LATER TONIGHT. ONLY MODELS THAT SUGGESTION SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY SNEAKING INTO FAR WEST ARE THE ONES THAT TEND TO OVERDUE
IT...AND INSTABILITY AFTER MIDNIGHT IS NON-EXISTANT...SO
MAINTAINING ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHC POP FAR NW LATE TONIGHT AND
TRENDED DOWN ON CLOUD COVER A BIT MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR ALL FAR BUT FAR WESTERN FRINGES. WENT
WITH COOLER GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR LOWS...BUT STILL A BIT MILDER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE
CLOUD COVER MOVING IN LATE.
TUESDAY CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND TIMING IS TOUGH WITH FRONT
APPROACHING FROM WEST LATE BUT EFFECTIVE DAYTIME HEATING EARLY
WITH LITTLE CAP TO HOLD CONVECTION BACK. THINKING THAT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD FIRE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM BLUE RIDGE
WEST RATHER EARLY...PERHAPS BY NOON...BUT MID LEVEL DRY AIR
INITIALLY WILL KEEP THIS LIMITED. THEN WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND
FORCING BACK ALONG FRONT TO THE WEST...MORE ORGANIZZED CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE. SOME HIGH RES MODELS AS WELL AS NAM
SUGGEST TWO SEPARATE WAVES...WITH ONE BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS
MOVING IN TO SE WV BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT WEAKENING QUICKLY ON
WESTERN SLOPES...WITH ANOTHER PERHAPS MORE SIGNIFICANT LINE OF
STORMS MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY BY EVENING AND APPROACHING FAR SW
VA AND NW NC LATER IN THE EVENING...BUT ALSO WEAKENING QUICKLY DUE
LARGELY TO LOSS OF INSTABILITY. OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS...BUT TRENDED TOWARD SLOWER ARRIVAL OF MID CHC TO LIKELY
POPS UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH OTHERWISE SLIGHT CHC FROM
FOOTHILLS WEST FROM MIDDAY ON. GIVEN LATE TIMING AND WEAKENING
NATURE OF STORMS...THINK SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.
SPC SLIGHT RISK INTO WESTERN THIRD OF AREA WOULD BE MAINLY FOR
EVENING...AND THINK THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS
MOST DEEPER CORES WILL BE COLLAPSING AS THEY MOVE INTO OUR
AREA...AND LINE CLUSTERS AND BOWING SEGMENTS ARE MOST LIKELY STORM
MODE. ANY ISOLD CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS EARLIER IN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT LIKELY TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. ANOTHER HOT DAY
IN THE EAST WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 90S AIDED BY SOME DOWNSLOPE
AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER...AND LOW TO MID 80S IN WEST WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN SOME OF
THESE HIGHS SINCE IT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND TIMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 EDT MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH A BULK OF THE BEST VORTICITY ADVECTION REMAINS NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...UPPER TROF AXIS CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AND MODELS STILL SHOWED FORECAST AREA IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE UPPER JET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP THESE TWO
PERIODS AS THE TIME WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION.
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP TUESDAY NIGHT AND AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS GOOD...THE
LACK OF HEATING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DOWNSLOPING FROM A WEST WIND
MAY SUPPRESS THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA...DEPENDING ON WHERE OUTFLOW FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY END UP. HAVE LOWERED CHANCE IN THE
NORTHWEST.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ENOUGH TO CONFINE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BUT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WEAK EAST FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER PATTERN IS AGAIN BECOMING ZONAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT
MODELS WERE BRINGING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN
TROF AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 500 MB
TROF DEEPENS AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SURFACE FRONT IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT ANY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
FORECAST AREA WILL RETURN TO WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE AIR...AND THE
ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...
MED/HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS TAF PERIOD.
COMMS ISSUES REMAIN AT KDAN DESPITE AN INTERMITTENT RETURN OF
OBSERVATION DATA. AMD NOT SKED CONTINUED IN THE TAF...ALTHOUGH
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LOOKS LIKE QUIET WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE
NO EXPECTATIONS THAT ANYTHING WILL AFFECT TAF SITES. PREFER THE
WAY NAM AND LOCAL WRF ARE HANDLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS SO
WILL LEAN ON THEM FOR CLOUD TRENDS.
EXPECT BURST OF CU THIS AFTERNOON TO SCATTER OUT BUT MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF VFR CIGS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WWD. LOW LEVEL THTE FIELDS SHOW A
SEPARATION BETWEEN SOME MOISTURE RUNNING UP THROUGH THE PIEDMONT TONIGHT
AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NW. KDAN MAY SEE
A PERIOD OF BKN VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH THE PIEDMONT MOISTURE AND BELIEVE
SCT CLOUDS WILL HOLD ELSEWHERE...BUT KLWB AND KBLF WILL SEE BORDERLINE VFR
CIGS BY DAYBREAK. ANTICIPATING LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
AND THIS MAY HELP KEEP FOG FORMATION IN CHECK TONIGHT AT KLWB AND KBCB...BUT
IF CLOUDS DO NOT MATERIALIZE FOG MAY BE MORE AGGRESIVE THAN INDICATED.
EXPECTING VARIABLE CLOUDS AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW BUT CU SHOULD DEVELOP INTO
A BORDERLINE VFR CIG BY LATE MORNING KBCB/KBLF/KLWB. BELIEVE BETTER CHANCES
FOR CONVECTIVE PCPN WILL BE VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND SO WILL
NOT MUDDY THE WATERS AND KEEP THINGS DRY WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
EXPECT LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SW TO KEEP GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES WITH
A DIURNAL BIAS. SW IS A PREFERED DIRECTION FOR KBLF SO WILL KEEP WINDS UP A
BIT THERE OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST
PUSH OF UPPER DYNAMICS TO NUDGE THE SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. BUT
THE FRONT WILL LINGER IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
IMPULSES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DIURNAL TRENDS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY FOR KDAN/KLYH...AND POSSIBLE IFR FOG LATE NIGHTS...MAINLY KBCB
AND KLWB.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
COMMS ISSUES WITH KDAN ASOS TRANSMITTING OUT. THE FAA IS AWARE OF
THE OUTAGE AND WILL BE WORKING ON IT...BUT NO ESTIMATED TIME OF
WHEN IT WILL BE WORKING AGAIN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/MBS/NF
EQUIPMENT...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
130 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY...ALLOWING
A RETURN OF HOT AND MORE HUMID AIR TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND SPILL
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
HEATING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT MONDAY...
VERY MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST CURRENT AND NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER
MATCH TEMPS WHICH ARE WARMING UP QUICKLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...AND TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT AND EXPECTED SKY COVER AND WINDS
NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT A LITTLE
MORE SW BY MID AFTERNOON AS RIDGE AXIS AT 850MB SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 1004 AM EDT MONDAY...
MAINLY DRY BUT WARM AND HUMID FORECAST LOOKS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK
FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN MID
TO UPPER 80S WEST WITH LOWER 90S EAST...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY
COMPONENT IN SOUNDINGS AND RADAR VWP SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY BE ENOUGH TO ADD A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SO MADE VERY MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
THERE. WESTERLY WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER ALREADY THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO BUMPED UP GUSTS
REMAINDER OF MORNING AND A LITTLE BIT FOR AFTERNOON AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO PRECIP FORECAST THIS AFT/EVE WITH ONLY
ISOLD STORMS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW NC...STILL SUPPORTED BY
LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS. MIXING OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS WHAT
WILL REALLY LIMIT ANY COVERAGE...AND SHOULD BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND DISSIPATING QUICKLY BY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...
GRADUAL RETURN OF HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE STATES SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
INCREASING SW FLOW TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS SHOULD PUSH 85H TEMPS BACK TO
ABOVE 20C LATER ON AND THIS COMBO WITH WARMER THICKNESS UNDER SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW SOME SPOTS ESPCLY ACROSS THE EAST TO TOP 90. HOWEVER
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ABOUT STATUS QUO...AND DESPITE SOME SLOW INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...EXPECT MIXING TO ACTUALLY LOWER VALUES SOME THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK FOR THE MOST PART. OTRW
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MET MOS UNDER
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAIN QUITE IFFY GIVEN
LACK OF MUCH UPPER SUPPORT WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DRIVEN BY LOCAL
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND INCREASING THETA-E UNDER THE RETURN FLOW. MOST
GUIDANCE BASICALLY DRY THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA BEING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE PER SW FLOW AND
PERHAPS THE EXTREME NW WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOOKING AT
FORECAST PWATS. MODEST INSTABILITY ALSO BEST IN THESE LOCATIONS AND
SINCE HINTED AT BY THE NAM/CMC AND SPC WRF KEPT AN ISOLATED MENTION
THERE BUT WITHOUT POPS ELSW.
IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS ESPCLY SW...MAY SEE ISOLATED CELLS FARTHER
EAST INTO NW NC/SRN VA DURING THE EARLY EVENING OFF OUTFLOW BUT ONLY
SUPPORTED BY THE SPC WRF SO LEFT OUT POPS ATTM. OTRW MAIN CONCERN OVER
THE FAR NW WITH POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ALONG THE
INITIAL FRONT TO ARRIVE LATE. GUIDANCE HAS MOST OF THIS FADING UPON
APPROACH BUT APPEARS CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW POP ESPCLY GIVEN A
DECENT RETURN OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO THE NW. THUS
KEPT IN 20/30 POPS LATE AFTER ANY EARLY COVERAGE ENDS. OTRW BECOMING
MORE WARM/HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS RISING AND BREEZES PERSISTING
ON THE RIDGES. THIS MAY KEEP SOME SPOTS ABOVE 70 FOR LOWS WHILE SEEING
MOSTLY MUGGY 60S ELSW UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND PATCHY FOG
LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THEN
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES TRACKING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD EACH PERIOD.
WITH THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY...THE BULK OF THE STORMS
WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH HEAT AND THE INCREASE OF
MOISTURE...SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST.
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVE STORMS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. AS THE FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL REENTER THE WEST.
ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONT AND A LEE TROUGH WILL INTERACT TO BRING
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE ADDITION OF
A SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED ENTRANCE REGION OF A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ALSO BRING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEW POINT FRONT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO ADVANCE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE MUGGY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
UPPER TROF FLATTENS...WITH ZONAL 500 MB FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE APPROACHING THE
EAST ON SUNDAY.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE DOES NOT GET PUSHED VERY
FAR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROLONG THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR COMES IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE AIR AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...
MED/HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS TAF PERIOD.
COMMS ISSUES REMAIN AT KDAN DESPITE AN INTERMITTENT RETURN OF
OBSERVATION DATA. AMD NOT SKED CONTINUED IN THE TAF...ALTHOUGH
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LOOKS LIKE QUIET WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE
NO EXPECTATIONS THAT ANYTHING WILL AFFECT TAF SITES. PREFER THE
WAY NAM AND LOCAL WRF ARE HANDLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS SO
WILL LEAN ON THEM FOR CLOUD TRENDS.
EXPECT BURST OF CU THIS AFTERNOON TO SCATTER OUT BUT MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF VFR CIGS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WWD. LOW LEVEL THTE FIELDS SHOW A
SEPARATION BETWEEN SOME MOISTURE RUNNING UP THROUGH THE PIEDMONT TONIGHT
AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NW. KDAN MAY SEE
A PERIOD OF BKN VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH THE PIEDMONT MOISTURE AND BELIEVE
SCT CLOUDS WILL HOLD ELSEWHERE...BUT KLWB AND KBLF WILL SEE BORDERLINE VFR
CIGS BY DAYBREAK. ANTICIPATING LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
AND THIS MAY HELP KEEP FOG FORMATION IN CHECK TONIGHT AT KLWB AND KBCB...BUT
IF CLOUDS DO NOT MATERIALIZE FOG MAY BE MORE AGGRESIVE THAN INDICATED.
EXPECTING VARIABLE CLOUDS AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW BUT CU SHOULD DEVELOP INTO
A BORDERLINE VFR CIG BY LATE MORNING KBCB/KBLF/KLWB. BELIEVE BETTER CHANCES
FOR CONVECTIVE PCPN WILL BE VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND SO WILL
NOT MUDDY THE WATERS AND KEEP THINGS DRY WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
EXPECT LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SW TO KEEP GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES WITH
A DIURNAL BIAS. SW IS A PREFERED DIRECTION FOR KBLF SO WILL KEEP WINDS UP A
BIT THERE OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST
PUSH OF UPPER DYNAMICS TO NUDGE THE SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. BUT
THE FRONT WILL LINGER IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
IMPULSES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DIURNAL TRENDS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY FOR KDAN/KLYH...AND POSSIBLE IFR FOG LATE NIGHTS...MAINLY KBCB
AND KLWB.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
COMMS ISSUES WITH KDAN ASOS TRANSMITTING OUT. THE FAA IS AWARE OF
THE OUTAGE AND WILL BE WORKING ON IT...BUT NO ESTIMATED TIME OF
WHEN IT WILL BE WORKING AGAIN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/SK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/MBS/NF
EQUIPMENT...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1202 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY...ALLOWING
A RETURN OF HOT AND MORE HUMID AIR TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND SPILL
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
HEATING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT MONDAY...
VERY MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST CURRENT AND NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER
MATCH TEMPS WHICH ARE WARMING UP QUICKLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...AND TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT AND EXPECTED SKY COVER AND WINDS
NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT A LITTLE
MORE SW BY MID AFTERNOON AS RIDGE AXIS AT 850MB SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 1004 AM EDT MONDAY...
MAINLY DRY BUT WARM AND HUMID FORECAST LOOKS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK
FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN MID
TO UPPER 80S WEST WITH LOWER 90S EAST...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY
COMPONENT IN SOUNDINGS AND RADAR VWP SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY BE ENOUGH TO ADD A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SO MADE VERY MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
THERE. WESTERLY WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER ALREADY THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO BUMPED UP GUSTS
REMAINDER OF MORNING AND A LITTLE BIT FOR AFTERNOON AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO PRECIP FORECAST THIS AFT/EVE WITH ONLY
ISOLD STORMS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW NC...STILL SUPPORTED BY
LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS. MIXING OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS WHAT
WILL REALLY LIMIT ANY COVERAGE...AND SHOULD BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND DISSIPATING QUICKLY BY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...
GRADUAL RETURN OF HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE STATES SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
INCREASING SW FLOW TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS SHOULD PUSH 85H TEMPS BACK TO
ABOVE 20C LATER ON AND THIS COMBO WITH WARMER THICKNESS UNDER SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW SOME SPOTS ESPCLY ACROSS THE EAST TO TOP 90. HOWEVER
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ABOUT STATUS QUO...AND DESPITE SOME SLOW INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...EXPECT MIXING TO ACTUALLY LOWER VALUES SOME THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK FOR THE MOST PART. OTRW
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MET MOS UNDER
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAIN QUITE IFFY GIVEN
LACK OF MUCH UPPER SUPPORT WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DRIVEN BY LOCAL
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND INCREASING THETA-E UNDER THE RETURN FLOW. MOST
GUIDANCE BASICALLY DRY THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA BEING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE PER SW FLOW AND
PERHAPS THE EXTREME NW WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOOKING AT
FORECAST PWATS. MODEST INSTABILITY ALSO BEST IN THESE LOCATIONS AND
SINCE HINTED AT BY THE NAM/CMC AND SPC WRF KEPT AN ISOLATED MENTION
THERE BUT WITHOUT POPS ELSW.
IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS ESPCLY SW...MAY SEE ISOLATED CELLS FARTHER
EAST INTO NW NC/SRN VA DURING THE EARLY EVENING OFF OUTFLOW BUT ONLY
SUPPORTED BY THE SPC WRF SO LEFT OUT POPS ATTM. OTRW MAIN CONCERN OVER
THE FAR NW WITH POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ALONG THE
INITIAL FRONT TO ARRIVE LATE. GUIDANCE HAS MOST OF THIS FADING UPON
APPROACH BUT APPEARS CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW POP ESPCLY GIVEN A
DECENT RETURN OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO THE NW. THUS
KEPT IN 20/30 POPS LATE AFTER ANY EARLY COVERAGE ENDS. OTRW BECOMING
MORE WARM/HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS RISING AND BREEZES PERSISTING
ON THE RIDGES. THIS MAY KEEP SOME SPOTS ABOVE 70 FOR LOWS WHILE SEEING
MOSTLY MUGGY 60S ELSW UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND PATCHY FOG
LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THEN
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES TRACKING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD EACH PERIOD.
WITH THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY...THE BULK OF THE STORMS
WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH HEAT AND THE INCREASE OF
MOISTURE...SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST.
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVE STORMS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. AS THE FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL REENTER THE WEST.
ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONT AND A LEE TROUGH WILL INTERACT TO BRING
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE ADDITION OF
A SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED ENTRANCE REGION OF A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ALSO BRING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEW POINT FRONT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO ADVANCE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE MUGGY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
UPPER TROF FLATTENS...WITH ZONAL 500 MB FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE APPROACHING THE
EAST ON SUNDAY.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE DOES NOT GET PUSHED VERY
FAR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROLONG THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR COMES IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE AIR AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM EDT MONDAY...
COMMS ISSUES REMAIN AT KDAN DESPITE AN INTERMITTENT RETURN OF
OBSERVATION DATA. AMD NOT SKED CONTINUED IN THE TAF...ALTHOUGH
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z/9AM WITH DAYTIME
HEATING... AND EXPECT A SCTD/BKN 4-6K FT CU FIELD TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...HOWEVER
THE CHANCE IS VERY LOW SO LEAVING OUT MENTION FOR NOW. OTRW VFR
UNDER INCREASING SW WINDS WHICH MAY GUST TO 15 OR 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT TO THE NW WILL START TO APPROACH OVERNIGHT PRECEDED BY
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY REACH KBLF/KLWB BY
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS AXIS OF
SHOWERS DOWN SO NOT INCLUDING MENTION ACROSS SE WVA LATE. OTRW
THINKING CONTINUED VFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME ADDED PATCHY
FOG AT KLWB PENDING CLOUDS AND KBCB WHERE SKIES MAY STAY CLEAR
LONGER.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH
BETTER CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TUESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA BY
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF PERIODIC MVFR REDUCTIONS ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH HEATING TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR WEEKS END INCLUDING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
ESPCLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN LOCATIONS. THE POTENTIAL ALSO
EXISTS FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KLWB...AND PERHAPS AT KBCB
AS WELL AS ANY TERMINAL THAT SEES A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
COMMS ISSUES WITH KDAN ASOS TRANSMITTING OUT. THE FAA IS AWARE OF
THE OUTAGE AND WILL BE WORKING ON IT...BUT NO ESTIMATED TIME OF
WHEN IT WILL BE WORKING AGAIN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/SK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
319 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS. DRIER AIR HAS ARRIVED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF WI LATE LAST
NIGHT. AXIS OF HIGHER MLCAPE HAS TAKEN SHAPE ACRS PARTS OF NRN WI
AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND ALSO FROM IA INTO SRN MN WITH BETTER
RETURN FLOW THERE. STORMS FIRING FROM NW WI INTO EC MN. THESE ARE
TRENDING ESE THOUGH AIRMASS MORE STABLE IN SRN WI. LATEST HRRR
SHOWS AXIS OF ONGOING ACTIVITY DROPPING INTO SW WI AS THE EVENING
GOES ON WITH STRONGER CELLS STAYING JUST NW OR W OF CWA WITH
WEAKER SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRA SPREADING INTO SRN WI. HOWEVER VERY
IMPRESSIVE JET PATTERN TAKES SHAPE AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PROGRESS. 12Z NAM SHOWS A NEARLY COUPLED JET STRUCTURE EVOLVING
WITH MASSIVE DIVERGENCE. SO FAVORABLE UPPER JET STREAM WILL
CERTAINLY BE A FACTOR. 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING
WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION. THERE WILL BE SOME
RECOVERY IN MOISTURE WITH RENEWED 25 TO 35 KNOT SOUTHWEST 850 JET
ARRIVING TOWARDS 06Z. BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL PROGGD TO AFFECT
SRN WI IN THE 02-11Z TIME FRAME. GFS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR 50 KNOTS
PLUS BY 06Z. SSEO SHOWS BETTER UPDRAFT HELICITY FURTHER WEST THEN
DECREASING INTO THE CWA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING A MASSIVE
AMOUNT OF CAPE COMING INTO PLAY BUT THERE WILL BE A RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT THE BEST OVERLAP OF
FORCING/THERMODYNAMICS TO BE IN SC WI CLOSER TO SWODY1 AREA OF
CONCERN. THE LATEST HRRR IS CERTAINLY A WEAKER SOLUTION THAN THE
12Z NMM AND 12Z ARW. ALL OF THE SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY EXIT SE WI
AROUND 12Z PLUS OR MINUS AN HOUR.
TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST. SO THIS WILL LIKELY SET UP
SOME PRETTY DECENT LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN MORE SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE PLACED IN THE NE CWA. 925 TEMPS
DROP INTO THE TEENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST FRONT. SO HIGHS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 70S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES FOR TUE NT
AND WED AM. THIS MAY ALLOW ISOLD TO SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FROM TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NT OVER EAST CENTRAL WI. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY FOR WED WITH HEIGHT RISES. THERE
WILL REMAIN ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR SCT-BKN CUMULUS WITH
POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES OVER EAST CENTRAL WI. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THEN PREVAIL WED NT INTO THU AM. SLY WINDS TO THEN DEVELOP THU
AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
BUT PLEASANT. PWS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ESEWD ACROSS THE
STATE WITH SLY WINDS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF IT.
MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A W-E STATIONARY FRONT OVER SRN WI OR NEARBY ON SOME
OF THE MODELS. THE UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ON THE DEGREE OF SOUTHWARD DIGGING OF A CANADIAN POLAR TROUGH.
WENT WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MONDAY WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR INTO THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW CU AND
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM MN/IA. LOOKING AT A 02-11Z AS THE
GENERAL WINDOW FOR STORMS...STARTING IN THE WEST AT 02-04Z AND
WRAPPING UP AT THE 11Z TIME IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. UPPER JET WILL BE
A FACTOR SO STORMS EXPECTED TO SURVIVE TO THE EAST DESPITE GETTING
INTO THE DIURNALLY LESS FAVORABLE TIMEFRAME. ANY LOWER CIGS AND
VSBYS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG WITH THE
STRONGER FLOW UPSTAIRS. SLIGHT RISK WAS EXPANDED A BIT FURTHER EAST
INTO SC WI SO KMSN MORE VULNERABLE TO A SVR STORM THAN THE EASTERN
TAF SITES. UPPER FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC ON TUESDAY SO CHCY POPS FOR
SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
203 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING.
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WHILE
TROUGHING PRESIDED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST
WAS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AT THE SOUTHWEST END OF THIS TROUGHING
OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO ROLL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE DPVA REGION...BEING ENHANCED
NOW BY DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER JET STREAK GOING FROM
MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...PROVIDING UPPER DIVERGENCE FOR THOSE
STORMS. CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING FROM CENTRAL MN INTO THE NORTH HALF OF WI. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THROUGH THE FLOW...COMBINED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND 1000 J/KG OF UNCAPPED MLCAPE PER RAP ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO THEIR DEVELOPMENT. HAVE HAD A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE
SUPERCELLS DEVELOP TOO. ANOTHER PLUME OF LITTLE HIGHER
INSTABILITY...1000-2000 J/KG PER RAP...WAS EVIDENT ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ASSOCIATED WITH CORN
EVAPOTRANSPORATION. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED NICELY DUE TO CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING AND HAVING 850MB TEMPS OF 15-18C. MAIN SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MN INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...THERE ARE
SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE 500MB HEIGHT FALLS FOR EARLY JULY...ON THE
ORDER OF 60-80 METERS IN 12 HOURS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS PLENTY
OF DYNAMIC FORCING COMING ACROSS THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...THAT
UPPER JET STREAK GOING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA NOW SHOULD SLIDE JUST TO
OUR SOUTH IN IOWA...PROVIDING UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPORT. THROW IN
LINGERING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND THIS PROVIDES A GREAT RECIPE FOR
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS AGREE AS WELL...WITH A MAX PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TIME LIKELY CENTERED NEAR 03Z.
THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST MOSTLY BETWEEN 23-03Z...
WHEN THE DYNAMICS ARE JUXTAPOSED ON TOP OF THE THERMODYNAMICS...AND
STORMS CAN MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATION OF INFLOW. STILL COULD HAVE SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE BEFORE THEN LIKE WE ARE OBSERVING NOW. 0-3KM AND 0-6
KM SHEAR STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION...30-
35 KT AND 40-55 KT RESPECTIVELY. HODOGRAPHS ARE MAINLY STRAIGHT
LINE...SUGGESTING SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...WHILE THE SHEAR ALSO FAVORS
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. GIVEN A MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM
SURFACE TO THE MID LEVELS...BELIEVE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT
SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR THE PRECIPITATION WEST TO EAST. THE FORECAST
AREA COULD BE COMPLETELY DRY BY 09Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
UPPER TROUGH SET UP FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH...REFLECTED BY 500MB TEMPS OF -13 TO -15C...COULD BE
ENOUGH TO INSTIGATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME ISSUES THAT WOULD FAVOR A DRIER
FORECAST. FIRST...MODELS AGAIN ARE LIKELY OVERDOING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD
FAVOR A GOOD DRYING/MIXING SCENARIO. SECOND...SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPEAR TO TRACK NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THUS...HAVE ONLY KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20-30 RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
A NICE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EAST...UPPER RIDGING EVENTUALLY BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY
00Z FRIDAY...AND SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
ALSO FORECAST BETWEEN 0.5-1 INCH...OR ANYWHERE FROM 50-100 PERCENT
OF NORMAL...SUPPORTING A DRY FORECAST AND ALSO ALLOWING FOR LARGER
DIURNAL SWINGS. NIGHTTIME LOWS COULD GET RELATIVELY CHILLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVERHEAD. THEREFORE IT ALSO SEEMS TO BE THE BEST NIGHT TO HAVE
TRIBUTARY VALLEY FOG.
THE WEATHER THEN STARTS TO POSSIBLY TURN MORE ACTIVE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS A RESULT OF VERY
GOOD MOISTURE RETURN...CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER UPWARDS
OF 1.5-1.8 INCHES...FLOWING BACK INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SURFACE HIGH. MEANWHILE...IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...AN UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO OUR REGION. SOME
OF THE DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN RIGHT NOW...BUT CERTAINLY FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THERE COULD BE OFF AND ON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. THIS CREATES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT AT LEAST FRIDAY 850MB TEMPS ARE
15-18C AND COULD BE SIMILAR ON SATURDAY. NOTE THAT A GENERAL COOLING
IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IF THE
07.00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS ARE RIGHT WHERE THEY SHOW 850MB TEMPS FALLING
TO 6C ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...IN ROUGHLY THE 22Z TO 04Z TIME-FRAME.
UNTIL THEN...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH SOME MODEST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS INCREASING LIFT ALOFT AND INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO GENERATE SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 THRU THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THESE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE TAF SITES LATE.
THUS THE VCTS AT BOTH KRST/KLSE AFTER 22Z. THE MAIN ROUND OF
FORCING/LIFT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY AND
MID EVENING HOURS...WITH A ROUND OF STRONGER SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/
CHANCES TO INCLUDE A TEMPO 2SM TSRA BKN020 AT BOTH SITES IN THE 00-
02Z PERIOD...THOUGH THIS MAY STILL SHIFT AN HOUR EITHER WAY AT BOTH
SITES. QUIETER/DRIER/VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE LATE
EVENING THRU TUE MORNING HOURS AS NORTHWEST WINDS BRING DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE REGION. SOME GUSTINESS OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
LATER TUE MORNING/TUE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL WARMING MIXING AND A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO FALL. IN FACT...WE ARE EXPECTING
ALL THE RIVER FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE ARX FORECAST AREA TO FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FLOOD WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AT WINONA AND LA CROSSE AND WILL SOON BE AT
WABASHA. PERIODIC RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
IT APPEARS THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE MISSISSIPPI...OR ITS TRIBUTARIES FOR THAT MATTER.
FOR THE CURRENT AND FORECAST RIVER LEVELS...SEE OUR INTERNET PAGE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY...AJ