Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/06/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
315 PM MST FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
HUMIDITIES...AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOW A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. EARLIER
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...THOUGH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 50S AND 60S WHILE THE
GPS-IPW AT TEMPE MEASURED AROUND 1.7 INCHES. LATEST MDCRS FLIGHTS
OUT OF PHOENIX SHOW A 15-20 KT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND AN ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NM.
THE PREFERENCE AGAIN IS CLEARLY TOWARDS THE HRRR WHICH HAS CAPTURED
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS WELL. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CIN ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS DUE TO THE
DELAYED INSOLATION. GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW PARALLEL TO THE MOGOLLON
RIM...CONVECTION ALONG THE RIM IS SHOWING LITTLE TENDENCY TO
PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHICH ESSENTIALLY LEAVES CENTRAL AZ IN A LESS
FAVORED AREA. NEVERTHELESS...CONDITIONS REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER DESERTS AS FAR WEST AS
SE CA...INCLUDING YUMA. MAIN THREATS REMAIN BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE PATTERN FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL PWATS EACH AFTERNOON AND MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. MUCH OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
DICTATED BY WHERE AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY /LINGERING
BOUNDARIES...HOW WORKED OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS...ETC.../ SO I
WILL KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHED APPROACH TO THE POPS AND KEEP THEM WELL
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK HOWEVER THE ONLY DAY TO
FEATURE ANY SORT OF NOTEWORTHY INVERTED TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IS
TUESDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES OR
IF THIS IS JUST CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BEING ADVECTED WITH THE MEAN
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A CLIMO-LIKE APPEARANCE
TO THE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGHLIGHTING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THAT OCCURRED THIS EVENING...I WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY...ONLY TOPPING OUT JUST ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
AS PWATS CHANGE LITTLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH THE IDEA OF HIGHS AROUND 102-105
EACH AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...EVENING CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN SOME RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 80S OR EVEN LOWER 90S. OF COURSE OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT BUT WILL STICK WITH THE IDEA OF VERY
WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED WELL NORTH AND
EAST OF PHOENIX...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS. STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR ISOLATED STORMS
TO FORM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS EVEN WITH THE MORE
STABLE AIRMASS DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
STRONG OUTFLOWS AND BLOWING DUST FROM DISTANT STORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...WEATHER AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE NOT
INTRODUCED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
UNCERTAINTY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE
TO INHIBIT DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND IN TURN STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS
TAFS DO NOT CURRENTLY DEPICT STORM ACTIVITY...BUT THAT COULD VERY
WELL CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ELEVATED STORM CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT EVEN PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER DESERTS COULD SEE WETTING RAINS. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
QUITE HIGH WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES DURING THE PERIOD. GIVEN
THE INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM INDUCED OUTFLOWS...
WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AND SHOULD FOLLOW THE USUAL UPSLOPE
DRAINAGE PATTERNS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
220 PM MST FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
HUMIDITIES...AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOW A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. EARLIER
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...THOUGH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 50S AND 60S WHILE THE
GPS-IPW AT TEMPE MEASURED AROUND 1.7 INCHES. LATEST MDCRS FLIGHTS
OUT OF PHOENIX SHOW A 15-20 KT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND AN ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NM.
THE PREFERENCE AGAIN IS CLEARLY TOWARDS THE HRRR WHICH HAS CAPTURED
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS WELL. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CIN ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS DUE TO THE
DELAYED INSOLATION. GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW PARALLEL TO THE MOGOLLON
RIM...CONVECTION ALONG THE RIM IS SHOWING LITTLE TENDENCY TO
PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHICH ESSENTIALLY LEAVES CENTRAL AZ IN A LESS
FAVORED AREA. NEVERTHELESS...CONDITIONS REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER DESERTS AS FAR WEST AS
SE CA...INCLUDING YUMA. MAIN THREATS REMAIN BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST.
&&
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED
TROUGH ACROSS SW AZ. CLOUDINESS AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF AZ. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THE MORNING CLOUDS TEND TO COMPLICATE THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE AND THE FORECAST FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. MODELS IN
GENERAL HAVE NOT INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONCEPTUALLY
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAVORED INITIALLY IN THE CLOUD-FREE AREAS OF
EASTERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MATCHES UP NICELY WITH THE HRRR
ENSEMBLE AND THE FORECAST WILL BE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS THIS
SOLUTION. CONSEQUENTLY...CONVECTION WILL BE INHIBITED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER DESERTS INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THIS
EVENING. INITIAL TWEAK TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO NUDGE POPS UPWARD
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX BUT DOWNWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE PATTERN FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL PWATS EACH AFTERNOON AND MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. MUCH OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
DICTATED BY WHERE AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY /LINGERING
BOUNDARIES...HOW WORKED OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS...ETC.../ SO I
WILL KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHED APPROACH TO THE POPS AND KEEP THEM WELL
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK HOWEVER THE ONLY DAY TO
FEATURE ANY SORT OF NOTEWORTHY INVERTED TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IS
TUESDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES OR
IF THIS IS JUST CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BEING ADVECTED WITH THE MEAN
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A CLIMO-LIKE APPEARANCE
TO THE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGHLIGHTING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THAT OCCURRED THIS EVENING...I WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY...ONLY TOPPING OUT JUST ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
AS PWATS CHANGE LITTLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH THE IDEA OF HIGHS AROUND 102-105
EACH AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...EVENING CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN SOME RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 80S OR EVEN LOWER 90S. OF COURSE OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT BUT WILL STICK WITH THE IDEA OF VERY
WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS...BASES GENERALLY AOA FL150...FROM LAST NIGHTS
STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE THINNING OUT.
ANTICIPATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE USUAL HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE METRO AREA...MAINLY RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. OUTFLOWS AND DUST FROM DISTANT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE LESS INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LEADING
TO WEAKER AND FEWER STORMS ON THE LOW DESERTS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA. A
FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE PRESENCE OF WEAK CIRCULATION FEATURES IN
THE FLOW ALREADY OVER ARIZONA AS WELL AS A LARGER VORT MAX CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ. REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW THESE
FEATURES WILL INFLUENCE THINGS. TAFS REFLECT CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WITH BASES ABOVE FL150 WILL LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN SEA OF
CORTEZ WILL MAY MAINTAIN CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN
INCREASE IT. IT COULD ALSO BE A FACTOR IN AIDING STORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO INHIBIT INSTABILITY AND IN TURN
STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS DOES LACK OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS TAFS DO NOT
DEPICT STORM ACTIVITY BUT THAT COULD VERY WELL CHANGE LATER THIS
MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ELEVATED STORM CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT EVEN PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER DESERTS COULD SEE RAINFALL. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. GIVEN THE INCREASED
HUMIDITIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL .
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM INDUCED OUTFLOWS...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
QUIET AND SHOULD FOLLOW THE USUAL UPSLOPE/DRAINAGE PATTERNS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TUCSON AZ
950 AM MST FRI JUL 4 2014
CORRECTED DISCUSSION TO UPDATE POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SE AZ AT THIS TIME. THE
EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z GENERALLY RANGED
FROM THE MID 50S-MID 60S F...AND THESE TEMPS WERE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F
HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE NEARLY 5-10
DEGS F COOLER VERSUS THIS TIME THUR.
04/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 1.55 INCHES...AN
INCREASE OF 0.25 INCH VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGE PLOT
DEPICTED ABOUT 2-4 DEGS C OF COOLING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN.
THE STEERING FLOW FOR STORM MOTION WAS MORE SELY VERSUS THUR
MORNING. 04/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED 592 DM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NWRN NEW MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SEWD INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT SLY-WLY FLOW PREVAILED
ABOVE 500 MB.
04/14Z RUC HRRR AND 04/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM WERE SIMILAR WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF COMPOSITE REFLECTIVE ECHOES BY 19Z MAINLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF ERN PIMA/SWRN GRAHAM/NRN COCHISE COUNTIES. AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF PRECIP ECHOES WERE THEN PROGGED TO EXIST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON MOSTLY FROM NEAR THE TUCSON METRO AREA EWD TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. WRN PIMA COUNTY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
PRECIP-FREE THIS AFTERNOON...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THESE TWO
MESOSCALE MODELS.
GIVEN THE GRADUAL EROSION OF CLOUDS DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS FROM
TUCSON SEWD...THE AMPLE MOISTURE AND FAVORED STORM MOTION FLOW AS
NOTED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DIAGNOSTICS...HAVE GIVEN INCREASED
CREDENCE TO THESE SOLUTIONS. THUS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS APPROACHING
OR EXCEEDING SEVERE THRESHOLDS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THE RUC HRRR AND U OF AZ WRF-NAM THEN DIFFER ON PRECIP PROSPECTS FOR
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL COVERAGE IS SIMILAR...THE RUC
HRRR FAVORS CENTRAL/ERN SECTIONS VERSUS MORE ACTIVITY WEST TO NORTH
OF TUCSON AS PER THE U OF AZ MODEL. AT THIS TIME...WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS TEMPS
ACHIEVED THUR.
PER COORD WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S AND FAVORING THE RUC HRRR...WILL
REDUCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WRN SECTIONS...AND ADJUST
POPS UPWARD ACROSS ERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. PLEASE REFER
TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/18Z.
ISOLATED MAINLY -SHRA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCT-NUMEROUS
TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR VISIBILITIES TO
OCCUR WITH +TSRA...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50
KTS. TSRA/SHRA COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MAINLY -SHRA SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL
BE AROUND 80-15K FT AGL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STILL
LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...HIGH CONSOLIDATED NORTH OF OUR AREA NOW WITH
INVERTED IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND TO ENHANCE OUR CONVECTION INTO
EARLY WEEKEND. BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THIS FEATURE PUSHES INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH THE EMPHASIS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHIFTING
WITH IT. WE WILL PROBABLY STILL BE ON THE BUSY SIDE SATURDAY...BUT
DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY WITH A COMBINATION OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE IMPULSE AND A FAIRLY WORKED-OVER ATMOSPHERE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE POSITION DEEPER INTO
THE GREAT BASIN NORTHWEST OF US...BUT ECMWF FEATURING ANOTHER
IMPULSE TO FOCUS CONVECTION FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY TUESDAY. WE
WILL RAMP THINGS UP ACCORDINGLY AFTER A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. DEFAULT IS A BLEND OF NAMDNG5 AND ECMWF...WITH CAREFUL
CONSIDERATION FOR HRRR AND VARIOUS WRF ITERATIONS. WELCOME TO THE
MONSOON!
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER
FIRE WEATHER...GLUECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SE AZ AT THIS TIME. THE
EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z GENERALLY RANGED
FROM THE MID 50S-MID 60S F...AND THESE TEMPS WERE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F
HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE NEARLY 5-10
DEGS F COOLER VERSUS THIS TIME THUR.
04/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 1.55 INCHES...AN
INCREASE OF 0.25 INCH VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGE PLOT
DEPICTED ABOUT 2-4 DEGS C OF COOLING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN.
THE STEERING FLOW FOR STORM MOTION WAS MORE SELY VERSUS THUR
MORNING. 04/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED 592 DM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NWRN NEW MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SEWD INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT SLY-WLY FLOW PREVAILED
ABOVE 500 MB.
04/14Z RUC HRRR AND 04/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM WERE SIMILAR WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF COMPOSITE REFLECTIVE ECHOES BY 19Z MAINLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF ERN PIMA/SWRN GRAHAM/NRN COCHISE COUNTIES. AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF PRECIP ECHOES WERE THEN PROGGED TO EXIST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON MOSTLY FROM NEAR THE TUCSON METRO AREA EWD TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. WRN PIMA COUNTY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
PRECIP-FREE THIS AFTERNOON...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THESE TWO
MESOSCALE MODELS.
GIVEN THE GRADUAL EROSION OF CLOUDS DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS FROM
TUCSON SEWD...THE AMPLE MOISTURE AND FAVORED STORM MOTION FLOW AS
NOTED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DIAGNOSTICS...HAVE GIVEN INCREASED
CREDENCE TO THESE SOLUTIONS. THUS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS APPROACHING
OR EXCEEDING SEVERE THRESHOLDS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THE RUC HRRR AND U OF AZ WRF-NAM THEN DIFFER ON PRECIP PROSPECTS FOR
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL COVERAGE IS SIMILAR...THE RUC
HRRR FAVORS CENTRAL/ERN SECTIONS VERSUS MORE ACTIVITY WEST TO NORTH
OF TUCSON AS PER THE U OF AZ MODEL. AT THIS TIME...WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS TEMPS
ACHIEVED THUR.
THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/18Z.
ISOLATED MAINLY -SHRA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCT-NUMEROUS
TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR VISIBILITIES TO
OCCUR WITH +TSRA...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50
KTS. TSRA/SHRA COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MAINLY -SHRA SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL
BE AROUND 80-15K FT AGL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STILL
LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...HIGH CONSOLIDATED NORTH OF OUR AREA NOW WITH
INVERTED IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND TO ENHANCE OUR CONVECTION INTO
EARLY WEEKEND. BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THIS FEATURE PUSHES INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH THE EMPHASIS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHIFTING
WITH IT. WE WILL PROBABLY STILL BE ON THE BUSY SIDE SATURDAY...BUT
DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY WITH A COMBINATION OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE IMPULSE AND A FAIRLY WORKED-OVER ATMOSPHERE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE POSITION DEEPER INTO
THE GREAT BASIN NORTHWEST OF US...BUT ECMWF FEATURING ANOTHER
IMPULSE TO FOCUS CONVECTION FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY TUESDAY. WE
WILL RAMP THINGS UP ACCORDINGLY AFTER A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. DEFAULT IS A BLEND OF NAMDNG5 AND ECMWF...WITH CAREFUL
CONSIDERATION FOR HRRR AND VARIOUS WRF ITERATIONS. WELCOME TO THE
MONSOON!
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER
FIRE WEATHER...GLUECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
920 AM MST FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
HUMIDITIES...AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED
TROUGH ACROSS SW AZ. CLOUDINESS AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF AZ. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THE MORNING CLOUDS TEND TO COMPLICATE THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE AND THE FORECAST FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. MODELS IN
GENERAL HAVE NOT INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONCEPTUALLY
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAVORED INITIALLY IN THE CLOUD-FREE AREAS OF
EASTERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MATCHES UP NICELY WITH THE HRRR
ENSEMBLE AND THE FORECAST WILL BE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS THIS
SOLUTION. CONSEQUENTLY...CONVECTION WILL BE INHIBITED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER DESERTS INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THIS
EVENING. INITIAL TWEAK TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO NUDGE POPS UPWARD
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX BUT DOWNWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUITE AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS WIDESPREAD
BLOWING DUST AFFECTED THE PHOENIX METRO AREA. COLLIDING BOUNDARIES
OVER THE METRO AROUND 03Z ALLOWED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO BE
UTILIZED AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PHOENIX AREA SAW MEASURABLE
PRECIP /SOME SPOTS SAW NEARLY AN INCH OF RAINFALL/. ELEVATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN MARICOPA/YUMA/LA PAZ
COUNTIES AS OF 08Z...WITH A SECONDARY CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH PIMA COUNTY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
THERE ARE STILL A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH IN THESE AREAS BUT SURFACE INHIBITION HAS INCREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...I EXPECT THAT WE ARE GOING TO
SEE THESE SHOWERS PERCOLATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
BEFORE FIZZLING OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. GIVEN THEIR ELEVATED
NATURE...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
AS USUAL...THE FORECAST IS QUITE COMPLICATED AS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE INGREDIENTS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...EVEN ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
THE MODELS IS THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
/PWATS AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES/ AND SUFFICIENT MLCAPES AROUND
500-700 J/KG. THE NAM/GFS/EURO/RAP ALL INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SONORA WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SUBTLE DARKENING/DRYING OVER CENTRAL
SONORA. HOWEVER THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THAT RESIDES ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF ARIZONA. GOING TO BE HARD TO
DESTABILIZE IF THIS THICK CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE ALL DAY AND
IF THINGS DONT CLEAR OUT AT LEAST A LITTLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...IT
MAY END UP MUCH LESS ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
HOWEVER...STEERING LEVEL WINDS IN THE 700-500MB LAYER ARE CURRENTLY
ADVECTING CLEAR SKIES INTO FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO SO THERE IS SOME
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THINGS WILL CLEAR OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INHERITED FORECAST CONTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND I ONLY MADE SLIGHT TEMPORAL CHANGES...FOCUSING
MORE ON THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME THAN ANYTHING ELSE. I WILL INTRODUCE A
MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST INTO THE FORECAST AS DUST IS
CERTAINLY A THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE OPEN DESERTS. HOWEVER WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THAT MAY HELP KEEP THE DUST SETTLED
DOWN A BIT.
ACTIVE PATTERN FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL PWATS EACH AFTERNOON AND MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. MUCH OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
DICTATED BY WHERE AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY /LINGERING
BOUNDARIES...HOW WORKED OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS...ETC.../ SO I
WILL KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHED APPROACH TO THE POPS AND KEEP THEM WELL
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK HOWEVER THE ONLY DAY TO
FEATURE ANY SORT OF NOTEWORTHY INVERTED TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IS
TUESDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES OR
IF THIS IS JUST CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BEING ADVECTED WITH THE MEAN
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A CLIMO-LIKE APPEARANCE
TO THE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGHLIGHTING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THAT OCCURRED THIS EVENING...I WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY...ONLY TOPPING OUT JUST ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
AS PWATS CHANGE LITTLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH THE IDEA OF HIGHS AROUND 102-105
EACH AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...EVENING CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN SOME RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 80S OR EVEN LOWER 90S. OF COURSE OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT BUT WILL STICK WITH THE IDEA OF VERY
WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS...BASES GENERALLY AOA FL150...FROM LAST NIGHTS
STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE THINNING OUT.
ANTICIPATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE USUAL HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE METRO AREA...MAINLY RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. OUTFLOWS AND DUST FROM DISTANT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE LESS INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LEADING
TO WEAKER AND FEWER STORMS ON THE LOW DESERTS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA. A
FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE PRESENCE OF WEAK CIRCULATION FEATURES IN
THE FLOW ALREADY OVER ARIZONA AS WELL AS A LARGER VORT MAX CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ. REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW THESE
FEATURES WILL INFLUENCE THINGS. TAFS REFLECT CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WITH BASES ABOVE FL150 WILL LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN SEA OF
CORTEZ WILL MAY MAINTAIN CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN
INCREASE IT. IT COULD ALSO BE A FACTOR IN AIDING STORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO INHIBIT INSTABILITY AND IN TURN
STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS DOES LACK OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS TAFS DO NOT
DEPICT STORM ACTIVITY BUT THAT COULD VERY WELL CHANGE LATER THIS
MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ELEVATED STORM CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT EVEN PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER DESERTS COULD SEE RAINFALL. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. GIVEN THE INCREASED
HUMIDITIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL .
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM INDUCED OUTFLOWS...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
QUIET AND SHOULD FOLLOW THE USUAL UPSLOPE/DRAINAGE PATTERNS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
530 AM MST FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
HUMIDITIES...AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
QUITE AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS WIDESPREAD
BLOWING DUST AFFECTED THE PHOENIX METRO AREA. COLLIDING BOUNDARIES
OVER THE METRO AROUND 03Z ALLOWED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO BE
UTILIZED AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PHOENIX AREA SAW MEASURABLE
PRECIP /SOME SPOTS SAW NEARLY AN INCH OF RAINFALL/. ELEVATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN MARICOPA/YUMA/LA PAZ
COUNTIES AS OF 08Z...WITH A SECONDARY CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH PIMA COUNTY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
THERE ARE STILL A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH IN THESE AREAS BUT SURFACE INHIBITION HAS INCREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...I EXPECT THAT WE ARE GOING TO
SEE THESE SHOWERS PERCOLATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
BEFORE FIZZLING OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. GIVEN THEIR ELEVATED
NATURE...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
AS USUAL...THE FORECAST IS QUITE COMPLICATED AS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE INGREDIENTS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...EVEN ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
THE MODELS IS THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
/PWATS AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES/ AND SUFFICIENT MLCAPES AROUND
500-700 J/KG. THE NAM/GFS/EURO/RAP ALL INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SONORA WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SUBTLE DARKENING/DRYING OVER CENTRAL
SONORA. HOWEVER THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THAT RESIDES ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF ARIZONA. GOING TO BE HARD TO
DESTABILIZE IF THIS THICK CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE ALL DAY AND
IF THINGS DONT CLEAR OUT AT LEAST A LITTLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...IT
MAY END UP MUCH LESS ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
HOWEVER...STEERING LEVEL WINDS IN THE 700-500MB LAYER ARE CURRENTLY
ADVECTING CLEAR SKIES INTO FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO SO THERE IS SOME
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THINGS WILL CLEAR OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INHERITED FORECAST CONTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND I ONLY MADE SLIGHT TEMPORAL CHANGES...FOCUSING
MORE ON THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME THAN ANYTHING ELSE. I WILL INTRODUCE A
MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST INTO THE FORECAST AS DUST IS
CERTAINLY A THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE OPEN DESERTS. HOWEVER WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THAT MAY HELP KEEP THE DUST SETTLED
DOWN A BIT.
ACTIVE PATTERN FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL PWATS EACH AFTERNOON AND MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. MUCH OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
DICTATED BY WHERE AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY /LINGERING
BOUNDARIES...HOW WORKED OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS...ETC.../ SO I
WILL KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHED APPROACH TO THE POPS AND KEEP THEM WELL
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK HOWEVER THE ONLY DAY TO
FEATURE ANY SORT OF NOTEWORTHY INVERTED TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IS
TUESDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES OR
IF THIS IS JUST CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BEING ADVECTED WITH THE MEAN
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A CLIMO-LIKE APPEARANCE
TO THE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGHLIGHTING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THAT OCCURRED THIS EVENING...I WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY...ONLY TOPPING OUT JUST ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
AS PWATS CHANGE LITTLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH THE IDEA OF HIGHS AROUND 102-105
EACH AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...EVENING CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN SOME RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 80S OR EVEN LOWER 90S. OF COURSE OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT BUT WILL STICK WITH THE IDEA OF VERY
WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS...BASES GENERALLY AOA FL150...FROM LAST NIGHTS
STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE THINNING OUT.
ANTICIPATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE USUAL HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE METRO AREA...MAINLY RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. OUTFLOWS AND DUST FROM DISTANT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE LESS INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LEADING
TO WEAKER AND FEWER STORMS ON THE LOW DESERTS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA. A
FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE PRESENCE OF WEAK CIRCULATION FEATURES IN
THE FLOW ALREADY OVER ARIZONA AS WELL AS A LARGER VORT MAX CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ. REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW THESE
FEATURES WILL INFLUENCE THINGS. TAFS REFLECT CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WITH BASES ABOVE FL150 WILL LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN SEA OF
CORTEZ WILL MAY MAINTAIN CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN
INCREASE IT. IT COULD ALSO BE A FACTOR IN AIDING STORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO INHIBIT INSTABILITY AND IN TURN
STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS DOES LACK OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS TAFS DO NOT
DEPICT STORM ACTIVITY BUT THAT COULD VERY WELL CHANGE LATER THIS
MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ELEVATED STORM CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT EVEN PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER DESERTS COULD SEE RAINFALL. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. GIVEN THE INCREASED
HUMIDITIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL .
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM INDUCED OUTFLOWS...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
QUIET AND SHOULD FOLLOW THE USUAL UPSLOPE/DRAINAGE PATTERNS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
235 AM MST FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...BUSY THUNDERSTORM DAY WITH ORGANIZED OUTFLOWS AND DUST
ISSUES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOTS OF DEBRIS LEFT
OVER. WE WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR OUT AND SOLAR INSOLATION WILL BE
INITIALLY LACKING FROM TUCSON WESTWARD TODAY. IN ADDITION...MORNING
SHOWERS WILL TEND TO SLOW ANY CONVECTIVE TRENDS FROM TUCSON WESTWARD
CONSIDERABLY TODAY. WITH CLEARING IN THE EAST FIRST WE WILL SEE THE
BEST HEATING EAST AND SOUTH FIRST...THEN RELY ON OUTFLOWS TO SPREAD
ACTIVITY BACK INTO THE TUCSON AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING (AFTER THE INITIAL MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY). DAYTIME HIGHS
KNOCKED BACK AS WELL WITH SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS THERE. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES SHOWING SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH
1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES A BIT MORE.
HIGH CONSOLIDATED NORTH OF OUR AREA NOW WITH INVERTED IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND TO ENHANCE OUR CONVECTION INTO EARLY WEEKEND. BY
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THIS FEATURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
WITH THE EMPHASIS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHIFTING WITH IT. WE WILL
PROBABLY STILL BE ON THE BUSY SIDE SATURDAY...BUT DOWN A LITTLE
SUNDAY WITH A COMBINATION OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE IMPULSE AND
A FAIRLY WORKED-OVER ATMOSPHERE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE POSITION DEEPER INTO
THE GREAT BASIN NORTHWEST OF US...BUT ECMWF FEATURING ANOTHER
IMPULSE TO FOCUS CONVECTION FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY TUESDAY. WE
WILL RAMP THINGS UP ACCORDINGLY AFTER A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. DEFAULT IS A BLEND OF NAMDNG5 AND ECMWF...WITH CAREFUL
CONSIDERATION FOR HRRR AND VARIOUS WRF ITERATIONS. WELCOME TO THE
MONSOON!
&&
.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS...WITH DECKS AROUND 8-14KFT
AGL...THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUD COVER
DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUN TO WORK ON MOIST ATMOSPHERE. SO STILL
LOOKING AT SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS NEAR +TSRA. OTHERWISE
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STILL
LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/GLUECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
140 AM MST FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
HUMIDITIES...AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
QUITE AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS WIDESPREAD
BLOWING DUST AFFECTED THE PHOENIX METRO AREA. COLLIDING BOUNDARIES
OVER THE METRO AROUND 03Z ALLOWED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO BE
UTILIZED AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PHOENIX AREA SAW MEASURABLE
PRECIP /SOME SPOTS SAW NEARLY AN INCH OF RAINFALL/. ELEVATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN MARICOPA/YUMA/LA PAZ
COUNTIES AS OF 08Z...WITH A SECONDARY CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH PIMA COUNTY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
THERE ARE STILL A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH IN THESE AREAS BUT SURFACE INHIBITION HAS INCREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...I EXPECT THAT WE ARE GOING TO
SEE THESE SHOWERS PERCOLATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
BEFORE FIZZLING OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. GIVEN THEIR ELEVATED
NATURE...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
AS USUAL...THE FORECAST IS QUITE COMPLICATED AS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE INGREDIENTS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...EVEN ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
THE MODELS IS THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
/PWATS AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES/ AND SUFFICIENT MLCAPES AROUND
500-700 J/KG. THE NAM/GFS/EURO/RAP ALL INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SONORA WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SUBTLE DARKENING/DRYING OVER CENTRAL
SONORA. HOWEVER THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THAT RESIDES ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF ARIZONA. GOING TO BE HARD TO
DESTABILIZE IF THIS THICK CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE ALL DAY AND
IF THINGS DONT CLEAR OUT AT LEAST A LITTLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...IT
MAY END UP MUCH LESS ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
HOWEVER...STEERING LEVEL WINDS IN THE 700-500MB LAYER ARE CURRENTLY
ADVECTING CLEAR SKIES INTO FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO SO THERE IS SOME
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THINGS WILL CLEAR OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INHERITED FORECAST CONTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND I ONLY MADE SLIGHT TEMPORAL CHANGES...FOCUSING
MORE ON THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME THAN ANYTHING ELSE. I WILL INTRODUCE A
MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST INTO THE FORECAST AS DUST IS
CERTAINLY A THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE OPEN DESERTS. HOWEVER WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THAT MAY HELP KEEP THE DUST SETTLED
DOWN A BIT.
ACTIVE PATTERN FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL PWATS EACH AFTERNOON AND MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. MUCH OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
DICTATED BY WHERE AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY /LINGERING
BOUNDARIES...HOW WORKED OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS...ETC.../ SO I
WILL KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHED APPROACH TO THE POPS AND KEEP THEM WELL
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK HOWEVER THE ONLY DAY TO
FEATURE ANY SORT OF NOTEWORTHY INVERTED TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IS
TUESDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES OR
IF THIS IS JUST CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BEING ADVECTED WITH THE MEAN
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A CLIMO-LIKE APPEARANCE
TO THE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGHLIGHTING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THAT OCCURRED THIS EVENING...I WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY...ONLY TOPPING OUT JUST ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
AS PWATS CHANGE LITTLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH THE IDEA OF HIGHS AROUND 102-105
EACH AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...EVENING CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN SOME RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 80S OR EVEN LOWER 90S. OF COURSE OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT BUT WILL STICK WITH THE IDEA OF VERY
WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST WHILE DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN BY
MIDNIGHT...BUT WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OUT OF
THE EAST SOUTHEAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRONG STORM OUTFLOWS
AND BLOWING DUST.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PERSISTENT BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ELEVATED STORM CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT EVEN PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER DESERTS COULD SEE RAINFALL. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. GIVEN THE INCREASED
HUMIDITIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL .
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM INDUCED OUTFLOWS...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
QUIET AND SHOULD FOLLOW THE USUAL UPSLOPE/DRAINAGE PATTERNS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1100 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
WHILE SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING...COVERAGE HAS
DECREASED CONSIDERABLY. LIGHTNING FREQUENCY HAS ALSO DECREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. DID BUMP UP POPS A LITTLE AFTER 06Z THOUGH AS
SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP LOOKS TO CONTINUE A FEW MORE HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 437 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER OUR NRN ZONES
THIS AFTN SO BUMPED UP POPS IN THAT AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST THINKING AS CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIE
DOWN AS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
MOISTURE IS BEING WRAPPED UP IN COUNTERCLOCKWISE FLOW UNDERNEATH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THOUGH DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AFTER 8PM DUE TO INCREASING STABILITY WITH SFC COOLING.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
LATE IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE AREA OF CONVECTION WELL
TODAY AND PROJECTS MOISTURE TO WRAP BACK AROUND FROM THE EAST
AFTER 6PM IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN REGION BUT DISSIPATED BY
MIDNIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WELL WITH 0.75 INCH PWATS REMAINING UNDER THE RIDGE...MEDIOCRE
40KT DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND INCREASED SUNSHINE DUE TO A LACK OF
ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...DUE TO A LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING
AND STEERING...STORM CELLS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NOT DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS. THE SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORED AS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
IN THIS REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK FOR CONTINUED HOT TEMPS. MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH NORTH OVER UT/WRN CO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
POOLING OVER SRN AZ/SRN NM/NWRN MEXICO TO GRADUALLY EXPAND
NORTHWARD...WHILE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH.
DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY SMALL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM MOST AFTERNOONS IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION.
STORM COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL...TO SCATTERED OVER THE SAN JUANS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 0.5 TO 0.65 INCH THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MIX
OF WET AND DRY STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH A SLIM CHANCE FOR
SOME TAF SITES BEING AFFECTED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS WILL OCCUR
SO KEPT ANY MENTION OF -SHRA OR -TSRA OUT OF TAF FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MORE HIGH CLOUDS TOMORROW WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS AGAIN FAVORING SRN AREAS. DID INCLUDE VCTS FOR KDRO AND
KTEX TOMORROW AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN
SEEN TODAY. MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS LOW SO EXPECT GUSTY SFC WINDS
FROM ANY STORMS THAT FORM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND...STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MIX OF WET AND DRY. HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE DRYING
POTENTIAL HIGH.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1022 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
WHILE SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING...COVERAGE HAS
DECREASED CONSIDERABLY. LIGHTNING FREQUENCY HAS ALSO DECREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. DID BUMP UP POPS A LITTLE AFTER 06Z THOUGH AS
SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP LOOKS TO CONTINUE A FEW MORE HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 437 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER OUR NRN ZONES
THIS AFTN SO BUMPED UP POPS IN THAT AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST THINKING AS CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIE
DOWN AS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
MOISTURE IS BEING WRAPPED UP IN COUNTERCLOCKWISE FLOW UNDERNEATH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THOUGH DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AFTER 8PM DUE TO INCREASING STABILITY WITH SFC COOLING.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
LATE IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE AREA OF CONVECTION WELL
TODAY AND PROJECTS MOISTURE TO WRAP BACK AROUND FROM THE EAST
AFTER 6PM IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN REGION BUT DISSIPATED BY
MIDNIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WELL WITH 0.75 INCH PWATS REMAINING UNDER THE RIDGE...MEDIOCRE
40KT DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND INCREASED SUNSHINE DUE TO A LACK OF
ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...DUE TO A LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING
AND STEERING...STORM CELLS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NOT DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS. THE SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORED AS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
IN THIS REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK FOR CONTINUED HOT TEMPS. MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH NORTH OVER UT/WRN CO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
POOLING OVER SRN AZ/SRN NM/NWRN MEXICO TO GRADUALLY EXPAND
NORTHWARD...WHILE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH.
DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY SMALL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM MOST AFTERNOONS IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION.
STORM COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL...TO SCATTERED OVER THE SAN JUANS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 0.5 TO 0.65 INCH THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MIX
OF WET AND DRY STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS NEAR SOME
TAFS. HOWEVER...RADAR MOSAIC STARTING SHOW A DOWNTICK IN
CONVECTION AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH MOST CONVECTION
FINISHED BY 03Z. AFTER THAT TIME...VFR WILL BE PREVALENT THOUGH
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STILL BE PRESENT. ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION IS ON TAP FOR TOMORROW WITH MTN TAF SITES POSSIBLY
SEEING MORE VCTS OR -TSRA ALONG WITH KDRO AS SRN AREAS DO REMAIN
FAVORED. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL SEE SCT SKIES BECOMING BKN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH VFR CONDITIONS BEING THE NORM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND...STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MIX OF WET AND DRY. HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE DRYING
POTENTIAL HIGH.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
231 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET AND EAST OF CAPE
COD...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ARTHUR WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY HAVING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
THE MARINE COMMUNITY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND
WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MOIST PLUME FROM HURRICANE ARTHUR
GETTING BROUGHT INTO MID LATITUDE TROF AND THIS HELPING SUPPORT
LINE OF SHOWERS ON A SW TO NE AXIS ACROSS EASTERN PA...EASTERN NY
AND INTO VT AT 06Z. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO FAR WESTERN PORTION OF CWA AS SHOWN BY HRRR AND
REFLECT THIS IN THE POPS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND REMAINS OF THE COLD FRONT AND APPROACH OF
HURRICANE ARTHUR UP THE COAST. HIGH POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THETA E
RIDGE STARTS THE MORNING OVER EASTERN MASS/RI...EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION. BUT POPS WILL BE AT LEAST AT LIKELY
LEVELS ALL PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIP WILL BE
SHOWERY...SO EXPECT RAIN-FREE PERIODS DURING THE DAY. BUT STILL A
WARM AND MUGGY DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF US FRI NIGHT
* HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND
* INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT ARTHUR MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF AND NAM TAKE THE CENTER OF ARTHUR JUST S/E OF
THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE CLOSER TO
NANTUCKET. THE NHC TRACK CONTINUES TO HAVE ARTHUR MOST LIKELY
PASSING NEAR OR JUST S/E OF THE BENCHMARK. ARTHUR WILL LIKELY BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS. THE MAIN HEAVY
RAIN THREAT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI.
RAINS FROM ARTHUR LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT COULD TOTAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THAT AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET.
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS /34 KTS OR GREATER/ DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERNMOST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS...WHERE GUSTS TO 45 KT ARE
EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST WINDS FROM HURRICANE ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE.
SATURDAY...ARTHUR CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NOVA SCOTIA. HEAVY
RAINS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END ALONG EASTERN MA SATURDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY BEFORE THEN. SKIES WILL CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME
NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AND MORE COMFORTABLE WITH A NORTHWEST WIND.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA DURING
THE WEEKEND. QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS RETURN. A COLD FRONT MAY
CROSS THE AREA DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME...BRINGING THE RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER OUR AREA...BUT WITH AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN
THERE MAY STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POP.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERNIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY IN RI AND SE MA.
FRIDAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG...THEN
GENERALLY MVFR DURING THE DAY WITH PERIODIC IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING BUT THEN MORE OF A
STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR BUT LOW PROBABILITY OF IFR
CIGS FOR A TIME BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR BUT PERIODS OF IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE 08Z TO 12Z.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING
SHOWERS BECOMING VFR LATE BDL/BAF/ORH AND VICINITY. MHT/BOS/PVD AND
EAST...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND HEAVY
RAIN. NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE AT CAPE AND ISLAND TERMINALS.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR BDL/BAF/ORH AND VICNINITY. TO
THE EAST...POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND HEAVY RAIN EARLY SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND
25KTS POSSIBLE TO START. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENE. MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BELOW 25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND LESS THAN 5 FEET
FARTHER NORTH. SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING AROUND/NORTH OF CAPE
ANN...AND THESE COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ALL AREAS ON FRIDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS HURRICANE ARTHUR
APPROACHES.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET AND EAST OF CAPE
COD...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS
FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST WATERS FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
AND EAST OF CAPE COD...IN THIS AREA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE MARINE COMMUNITY.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SLOWLY
SATURDAY AS ARTHUR MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT INCREASING
SW WINDS SEAS ON COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS JUICY WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.7 TO 2.0
INCHES. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS TIME. THIS WILL MEAN A
CHANCE FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLASH FLOODING. RIVERS AND
STREAMS ARE GENERALLY AT NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...EXCEPT BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN MA AND NORTHERN RI.
BECAUSE OF THIS...LARGER TRIBUTARY AND MAINSTEM RIVERS WOULD BE
MORE DIFFICULT TO FLOOD.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. ANTICIPATE ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR THE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRI EVENING TIME FRAME.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-
008>012-026.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-
015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ231-232-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ250.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG/NMB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/NMB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
918 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
THEN MOVE UP TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...TO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED FOR MOST OF THE MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE AND THE REST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE PHL
METRO AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MIDDLESEX COUNTY.
ARTHUR`S EYE IS ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FENWICK ISLAND
DELAWARE. ARTHUR CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. WE ARE NOW SEEING
THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE PCPN BAND HITTING A WALL EAST OF I95
AND THE NJ TURNPIKE. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND COSPA WE HAVE
USED THEM AS A BASIS FOR CANCELLING THE WATCH. FARTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST PCPN ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS A WINTER
DEFORMATION ZONE LOOK TO IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. IT LOOKS
AS THOUGH WHEN THE LIFT EXITS THIS BAND LATER THIS MORNING, IT
WILL JUST RAIN ITSELF OUT.
SEMI-DOWN DELAWARE BAY FLOW AND POSSIBLE HEAVY PCPN TRANSPORTING
STRONGER WINDS DOWNWARD HAVE ENHANCED WINDS ON THE DELAWARE SIDE OF
THE BAY, AND WE HAVE INCREASED FORECAST WINDS FOR TODAY AND ARE
COVERING IT WITH SMW(S) AND SPS(S). IF IT NO LONGER BECOMES JUST
A PCPN ENHANCEMENT WE MAY ISSUE SOME SHORT FUSED WIND RELATED
ADVISORIES, GALES.
WE SLOWED THE ASCENT OF TEMPS THIS MORNING, NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT
MAX TEMPS BEING REACHED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL/SRN NJ AND THE SERN
DELMARVA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWS A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN FORMING
OVER THE SRN DELMARVA AND OFF THE NJ COAST AS THE OUTER BANDS OF
ARTHUR INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS BAND TO
PROGRESS NWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2
INCHES PER HR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THIS BAND. IT WON`T TAKE MUCH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING WITH THE GROUND
ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS (DUAL-POL RADAR ESTIMATES
FROM KDOX INDICATED A SWATH OF 3-7 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN LAST
NIGHT IN SRN PORTIONS OF TALBOT AND CAROLINE COUNTIES).
HURRICANE ARTHUR`S TRACK IS BECOMING INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND HAS STARTED ITS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HAS ACCELERATED IN SPEED. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK TAKES ARTHUR
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE DELMARVA AND NJ COAST TO SPARE DIRECT
WIND/STORM SURGE IMPACTS FROM THE HURRICANE.
THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AS WELL AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS STALLED OVER EASTERN
PA...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS THIS MRNG. CYCLONIC FLOW
ON NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT MOVES NEWD THIS MRNG. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND NEAR THE NJ COAST THIS
MRNG. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF IS PICKING UP ON THIS FAIRLY WELL.
ACCORDINGLY, THERE IS STILL A HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS. WHILE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
STILL IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE CWA THIS MRNG (AND FOR THE
DELMARVA/SRN NJ THRU THE AFTN), THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA AS THE
INSTABILITY REQUIRED FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WANES. WILL LIKELY
BE ABLE TO TRIM BACK THESE N/W PORTIONS OF THE WATCH LATER THIS
MRNG.
NW FLOW AROUND THE HURRICANE WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY
MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN. DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE
CWA BUT DID FCST LOW 80S FOR THE DELMARVA AND PHILLY METRO WHERE
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND LATER IN THE AFTN. NW
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTN AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
WITH PLENTY OF FIREWORKS SCHEDULED FOR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
(WHICH IS AROUND 830 PM), SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
IN TIME ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER COASTAL AREAS.
THE MAIN WX-RELATED IMPACT FOR FIREWORKS WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT (FOR JULY STANDARDS) WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA AS HIPRES BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND HURRICANE ARTHUR
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME. NW WINDS
MAY GUST 25-35 MPH DURING THE EARLY EVENING BUT WILL START TO
DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SCHEDULED FIREWORKS TIME.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 5-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMP
FCST WEIGHTED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINING WELL MIXED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SAT AND SUN...ARTHUR WILL BE WELL NE OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SAT AND THE
SWELLS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AT THE OCEAN. THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS CONTINUES A DECENT TRACK RECORD OF
FAIR WEATHER WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY IN THE LOW 80S AND A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER SUN. A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN DE ON
SUNDAY.
MON...A WEAK H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE LOW
PRESSURE TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
WILL CREATE A RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL CAUSE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO RISE
ONCE AGAIN. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK MON WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS MOST
AREAS. THERE IS A SMALL CHC FOR A SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS THE FAR
N/W...BUT OTHER THAN THAT DRY ACROSS A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
TUE AND WED...THERE IS A BETTER CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SLOWS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...FURTHER SLOWING IT WED. THERE IS
A CHC OR SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON BOTH DAYS IN MOST AREAS.
THE N/W AREAS ARE MOST FAVORED. TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
BOTH DAYS WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS. (COOLER ACROSS THE SRN
POCONOS AND A BIT WARMER OVER SRN DELAWARE).
THU...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...SO
THE CHCS FOR PCPN WILL BE LESS THAN THE EARLIER FEW DAYS. WE WILL
STILL KEEP A SMALL CHC FOR A SHOWER/TSTM AS OFFERED BY WPC. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MRNG DESPITE AREAS OF SHRA OVER
THE AREA. A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN MODERATE SHRA THIS MRNG AND
BRIEFLY/LOCALIZED IFR RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY SHRA. NLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THRUOUT THE DAY AS HURRICANE ARTHUR TRACKS EAST OF THE NRN
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GUST TO 20 KT THIS MRNG AND TO 30 KT BETWEEN
ABOUT 18Z-00Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TNGT AFTER SUNSET TO 10-15 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS SAT.
TUE...VFR WITH SCT AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH/WESTERN
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEMI-DOWN DELAWARE BAY FLOW AND POSSIBLE HEAVY PCPN TRANSPORTING
STRONGER WINDS DOWNWARD HAVE ENHANCED WINDS ON THE DELAWARE SIDE OF
THE BAY, AND WE HAVE INCREASED FORECAST WINDS FOR TODAY AND ARE
COVERING IT WITH SMW(S) AND SPS(S). IF IT NO LONGER BECOMES JUST
A PCPN ENHANCEMENT WE MAY ISSUE SOME SHORT FUSED WIND RELATED
ADVISORIES, GALES.
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATER THIS MRNG AS HURRICANE ARTHUR MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. WIND/WAVE HAZARDS COVERED BY SCA BUT PLEASE NOTE
WINDS THAT WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ COAST THIS AFTN. THE 00Z GFS
INDICATES TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FOR THESE ZONES WHILE MAJORITY
OF OTHER GUIDANCE, INCLUDING FROM NHC, KEEP THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ABOUT 25-50 MILES EAST OF THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES.
HIGH SURF CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET THIS AFTN
AND TNGT WHEN ARTHUR IS CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WILL DIMINISH LATE.
SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS UNTIL EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS
WILL APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS.
MON...SCA POSSIBLE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
BECAUSE OF ARTHUR`S PASS COINCIDING WITH THE START OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT, EVEN IF WE WILL FALL A BIT SHORT OF CRITERIA. WE
ALSO ARE ANTICIPATING A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
THIS POSES A HUGE CONCERN CONSIDERING THE LARGE NUMBERS OF
PEOPLE, INCLUDING THE LESS EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS, WHO WILL VENTURE
OUT DURING ONE OF THE BIGGEST BEACH WEEKENDS OF THE YEAR. THE
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ON LAND THIS WEEKEND COULD LEAD TO A
FALSE SENSE OF SAFETY IN THE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE-THREATENING IF YOU/RE NOT PREPARED TO
HANDLE THEM. FOR THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SAFETY...SWIM ONLY UNDER
THE WATCHFUL EYES OF LIFEGUARDS. OTHERWISE ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR
RESCUE CAN SUFFER FROM A MUCH GREATER RESPONSE DELAY AND BE FATAL.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ014-
020>027.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ014-024>026.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ012-013.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ004.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
THEN MOVE UP TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...TO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ERN PA...NWRN NJ AND
CECIL COUNTY IN MD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
INTO THESE AREAS BUT RAINFALL RATES WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
THUS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FLASH FLOODING.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL/SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWS A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN
FORMING OVER THE SRN DELMARVA AND OFF THE NJ COAST AS THE OUTER
BANDS OF ARTHUR INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS
BAND TO PROGRESS NWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. RAINFALL
RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THIS BAND. IT
WON`T TAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS (DUAL-POL RADAR
ESTIMATES FROM KDOX INDICATED A SWATH OF 3-7 INCHES OF RAIN HAD
FALLEN LAST NIGHT IN SRN PORTIONS OF TALBOT AND CAROLINE COUNTIES).
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HURRICANE ARTHUR IS LOCATED NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AS OF 3 AM WITH A MIN
SLP OF 973 MB. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING INFLUENCED BY
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND HAS STARTED ITS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HAS ACCELERATED IN SPEED. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK TAKES
ARTHUR FAR ENOUGH OFF THE DELMARVA AND NJ COAST TO SPARE DIRECT
WIND/STORM SURGE IMPACTS FROM THE HURRICANE.
THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AS WELL AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS STALLED OVER EASTERN
PA...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS THIS MRNG. CYCLONIC FLOW
ON NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT MOVES NEWD THIS MRNG. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND NEAR THE NJ COAST THIS
MRNG. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF IS PICKING UP ON THIS FAIRLY WELL.
ACCORDINGLY, THERE IS STILL A HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS. WHILE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
STILL IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE CWA THIS MRNG (AND FOR THE
DELMARVA/SRN NJ THRU THE AFTN), THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA AS THE
INSTABILITY REQUIRED FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WANES. WILL LIKELY
BE ABLE TO TRIM BACK THESE N/W PORTIONS OF THE WATCH LATER THIS
MRNG.
NW FLOW AROUND THE HURRICANE WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY
MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN. DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE
CWA BUT DID FCST LOW 80S FOR THE DELMARVA AND PHILLY METRO WHERE
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND LATER IN THE AFTN. NW
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTN AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
WITH PLENTY OF FIREWORKS SCHEDULED FOR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
(WHICH IS AROUND 830 PM), SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
IN TIME ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER COASTAL AREAS.
THE MAIN WX-RELATED IMPACT FOR FIREWORKS WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT (FOR JULY STANDARDS) WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA AS HIPRES BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND HURRICANE ARTHUR
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME. NW WINDS
MAY GUST 25-35 MPH DURING THE EARLY EVENING BUT WILL START TO
DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SCHEDULED FIREWORKS TIME.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 5-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMP
FCST WEIGHTED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINING WELL MIXED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SAT AND SUN...ARTHUR WILL BE WELL NE OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SAT AND THE
SWELLS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AT THE OCEAN. THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS CONTINUES A DECENT TRACK RECORD OF
FAIR WEATHER WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY IN THE LOW 80S AND A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER SUN. A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN DE ON
SUNDAY.
MON...A WEAK H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE LOW
PRESSURE TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
WILL CREATE A RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL CAUSE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO RISE
ONCE AGAIN. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK MON WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS MOST
AREAS. THERE IS A SMALL CHC FOR A SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS THE FAR
N/W...BUT OTHER THAN THAT DRY ACROSS A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
TUE AND WED...THERE IS A BETTER CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SLOWS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...FURTHER SLOWING IT WED. THERE IS
A CHC OR SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON BOTH DAYS IN MOST AREAS.
THE N/W AREAS ARE MOST FAVORED. TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
BOTH DAYS WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS. (COOLER ACROSS THE SRN
POCONOS AND A BIT WARMER OVER SRN DELAWARE).
THU...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...SO
THE CHCS FOR PCPN WILL BE LESS THAN THE EARLIER FEW DAYS. WE WILL
STILL KEEP A SMALL CHC FOR A SHOWER/TSTM AS OFFERED BY WPC. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MRNG DESPITE AREAS OF SHRA OVER
THE AREA. A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN MODERATE SHRA THIS MRNG AND
BRIEFLY/LOCALIZED IFR RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY SHRA. NLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THRUOUT THE DAY AS HURRICANE ARTHUR TRACKS EAST OF THE NRN
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GUST TO 20 KT THIS MRNG AND TO 30 KT BETWEEN
ABOUT 18Z-00Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TNGT AFTER SUNSET TO 10-15 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS SAT.
TUE...VFR WITH SCT AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH/WESTERN
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATER THIS MRNG AS HURRICANE ARTHUR MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. WIND/WAVE HAZARDS COVERED BY SCA BUT PLEASE NOTE
WINDS THAT WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ COAST THIS AFTN. THE 00Z GFS
INDICATES TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FOR THESE ZONES WHILE MAJORITY
OF OTHER GUIDANCE, INCLUDING FROM NHC, KEEP THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ABOUT 25-50 MILES EAST OF THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES.
HIGH SURF CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET THIS AFTN
AND TNGT WHEN ARTHUR IS CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WILL DIMINISH LATE.
SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS UNTIL EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS
WILL APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS.
MON...SCA POSSIBLE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
BECAUSE OF ARTHUR`S PASS COINCIDING WITH THE START OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT, EVEN IF WE WILL FALL A BIT SHORT OF CRITERIA. WE
ALSO ARE ANTICIPATING A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
THIS POSES A HUGE CONCERN CONSIDERING THE LARGE NUMBERS OF
PEOPLE, INCLUDING THE LESS EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS, WHO WILL VENTURE
OUT DURING ONE OF THE BIGGEST BEACH WEEKENDS OF THE YEAR. THE
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ON LAND THIS WEEKEND COULD LEAD TO A
FALSE SENSE OF SAFETY IN THE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE-THREATENING IF YOU/RE NOT PREPARED TO
HANDLE THEM. FOR THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SAFETY...SWIM ONLY UNDER
THE WATCHFUL EYES OF LIFEGUARDS. OTHERWISE ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR
RESCUE CAN SUFFER FROM A MUCH GREATER RESPONSE DELAY AND BE FATAL.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ014-
020>027.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ014-024>026.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ012-013-015>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ004.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
427 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
THEN MOVE UP TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...TO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HURRICANE ARTHUR IS LOCATED NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AS OF 3 AM WITH A MIN
SLP OF 973 MB. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING INFLUENCED BY
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND HAS STARTED ITS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HAS ACCELERATED IN SPEED. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK TAKES
ARTHUR FAR ENOUGH OFF THE DELMARVA AND NJ COAST TO SPARE DIRECT
WIND/STORM SURGE IMPACTS FROM THE HURRICANE.
THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AS WELL AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS STALLED OVER EASTERN
PA...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS THIS MRNG. CYCLONIC FLOW
ON NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT MOVES NEWD THIS MRNG. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND NEAR THE NJ COAST THIS
MRNG. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF IS PICKING UP ON THIS FAIRLY WELL.
ACCORDINGLY, THERE IS STILL A HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS. WHILE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
STILL IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE CWA THIS MRNG (AND FOR THE
DELMARVA/SRN NJ THRU THE AFTN), THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA AS THE
INSTABILITY REQUIRED FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WANES. WILL LIKELY
BE ABLE TO TRIM BACK THESE N/W PORTIONS OF THE WATCH LATER THIS
MRNG.
NW FLOW AROUND THE HURRICANE WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY
MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN. DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE
CWA BUT DID FCST LOW 80S FOR THE DELMARVA AND PHILLY METRO WHERE
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND LATER IN THE AFTN. NW
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTN AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
WITH PLENTY OF FIREWORKS SCHEDULED FOR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
(WHICH IS AROUND 830 PM), SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
IN TIME ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER COASTAL AREAS.
THE MAIN WX-RELATED IMPACT FOR FIREWORKS WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT (FOR JULY STANDARDS) WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA AS HIPRES BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND HURRICANE ARTHUR
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME. NW WINDS
MAY GUST 25-35 MPH DURING THE EARLY EVENING BUT WILL START TO
DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SCHEDULED FIREWORKS TIME.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 5-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMP
FCST WEIGHTED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINING WELL MIXED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SAT AND SUN...ARTHUR WILL BE WELL NE OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SAT AND THE
SWELLS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AT THE OCEAN. THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS CONTINUES A DECENT TRACK RECORD OF
FAIR WEATHER WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY IN THE LOW 80S AND A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER SUN. A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN DE ON
SUNDAY.
MON...A WEAK H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE LOW
PRESSURE TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
WILL CREATE A RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL CAUSE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO RISE
ONCE AGAIN. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK MON WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS MOST
AREAS. THERE IS A SMALL CHC FOR A SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS THE FAR
N/W...BUT OTHER THAN THAT DRY ACROSS A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
TUE AND WED...THERE IS A BETTER CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SLOWS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...FURTHER SLOWING IT WED. THERE IS
A CHC OR SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON BOTH DAYS IN MOST AREAS.
THE N/W AREAS ARE MOST FAVORED. TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
BOTH DAYS WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS. (COOLER ACROSS THE SRN
POCONOS AND A BIT WARMER OVER SRN DELAWARE).
THU...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...SO
THE CHCS FOR PCPN WILL BE LESS THAN THE EARLIER FEW DAYS. WE WILL
STILL KEEP A SMALL CHC FOR A SHOWER/TSTM AS OFFERED BY WPC. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MRNG DESPITE AREAS OF SHRA OVER
THE AREA. A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN MODERATE SHRA THIS MRNG AND
BRIEFLY/LOCALIZED IFR RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY SHRA. NLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THRUOUT THE DAY AS HURRICANE ARTHUR TRACKS EAST OF THE NRN
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GUST TO 20 KT THIS MRNG AND TO 30 KT BETWEEN
ABOUT 18Z-00Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TNGT AFTER SUNSET TO 10-15 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS SAT.
TUE...VFR WITH SCT AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH/WESTERN
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATER THIS MRNG AS HURRICANE ARTHUR MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. WIND/WAVE HAZARDS COVERED BY SCA BUT PLEASE NOTE
WINDS THAT WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ COAST THIS AFTN. THE 00Z GFS
INDICATES TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FOR THESE ZONES WHILE MAJORITY
OF OTHER GUIDANCE, INCLUDING FROM NHC, KEEP THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ABOUT 25-50 MILES EAST OF THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES.
HIGH SURF CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET THIS AFTN
AND TNGT WHEN ARTHUR IS CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WILL DIMINISH LATE.
SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS UNTIL EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS
WILL APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS.
MON...SCA POSSIBLE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
BECAUSE OF ARTHUR`S PASS COINCIDING WITH THE START OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT, EVEN IF WE WILL FALL A BIT SHORT OF CRITERIA. WE
ALSO ARE ANTICIPATING A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
THIS POSES A HUGE CONCERN CONSIDERING THE LARGE NUMBERS OF
PEOPLE, INCLUDING THE LESS EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS, WHO WILL VENTURE
OUT DURING ONE OF THE BIGGEST BEACH WEEKENDS OF THE YEAR. THE
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ON LAND THIS WEEKEND COULD LEAD TO A
FALSE SENSE OF SAFETY IN THE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE-THREATENING IF YOU/RE NOT PREPARED TO
HANDLE THEM. FOR THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SAFETY...SWIM ONLY UNDER
THE WATCHFUL EYES OF LIFEGUARDS. OTHERWISE ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR
RESCUE CAN SUFFER FROM A MUCH GREATER RESPONSE DELAY AND BE FATAL.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ060>062-070-071-
101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-
013-015>019.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ014-
020>027.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DEZ001.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR DEZ004.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ008.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
252 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WIDELY DISPERSED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. IN GENERAL STORM MOTION IS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH
THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA EXPECTED TO
HAVE THE MOST COVERAGE. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW THIS TREND
AS WELL.
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THEN EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TOWARD HURRICANE
ARTHUR. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT AREA OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND EXTEND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR HAS
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES...I.E. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
MOISTURE...WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
IN GENERAL WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 88 77 86 / 30 40 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 87 79 86 / 30 40 20 40
MIAMI 79 88 78 87 / 30 40 20 40
NAPLES 79 87 78 87 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
150 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TSRA ALREADY UNDERWAY AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SEA BREEZE WELL INLAND FROM THE MIAMI-
DADE TERMINALS SO DELAYED VCTS FOR KOPF, KMIA AND KTMB UNTIL 20Z
WHEN SOME OF CONVECTION COULD MOVE BACK TOWARDS THOSE TERMINALS IN
THE NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IF A TSRA MOVES NEAR THE TERMINAL BUT ONLY PLACED THE
VCTS FOR NOW WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFT 15Z.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
UPDATE...
THERE WERE SOME CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PWAT OF AROUND
1.9 INCHES. IN ADDITION THERE ARE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. WITH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES EXPECTED TODAY...INITIATION OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. BUT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERLY WINDS COULD HELP TO SHIFT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR MODEL...SUGGESTS THIS
TREND AS WELL. SO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE ADDED TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS BUT MAINLY EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE 12Z SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED SOME LAYERS OF
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE SO SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION
THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE IS FAVORABLE.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCT TSRA AFT 19-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH
COASTS AROUND 17Z WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARIES.
THE STEERING FLOW IS ERRATIC THIS MORNING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THUS, TSRA MOVEMENT
WITH INTERACTIONS BETWEEN BOUNDARIES WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC SO
ONLY PLACED VCTS IN THE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME BUT THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIG/VSBY FAVORING THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AND
WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA FOR TODAY. GIVEN THE NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OF TONIGHT,
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. LOOKING AT MODEL WINDS, THE STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A GULF BREEZE WILL DEVELOP,
TURNING THE WINDS SOMEWHAT MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SHOWS UP, BUT
VERY WEAK AND DOES NOT LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL BE ABLE TO PENETRATE
TOO FAR INLAND, MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE SW FLOW. THIS MAKES THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE AREA TO BE IN THE INTERIOR, WITH THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AREAS OF BROWARD, PALM BEACH, AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES, AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN AREAS OF COLLIER, GLADES, AND HENDRY COUNTIES.
HOWEVER, AS WITH MOST AFTERNOONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA, CAN NOT RULE
OUT ANY LOCATION ACROSS THE AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR THEIR INTENSITY, YESTERDAY LOOKED SOMEWHAT BETTER. TODAY,
THE 500MB TEMP IS -6.8C. THE 700-500MB LAPSE RATE IS RIGHT AROUND
6 C/KM. THE NCAPE IS AROUND .15 AND CAPE IS LESS THAN 2000 JOULES.
SO,. THIS ADDS UP TO MAINLY GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
THERE IS A DRY LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS THAT COLD HELP BRING A FEW
STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER,
ONLY EXPECTING DOWNDRAFTS OF 40-50 MILES PER HOUR AT THIS TIME.
THE FREEZING LEVEL IS AROUND 15000, WHICH MAKES HAIL DIFFICULT,
AND IF IT DOES FORM, IT SHOULD KEEP IT ON THE SMALL SIDE.
AFTER TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
TURN THE FLOW MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST. WITH THIS CHANGE,
MORE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT FROM THE EASTERN
INTERIOR, TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. THIS WILL
PERSIST WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFORE
MENTIONED AREA EACH AFTERNOON. IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THERE WILL
BE SOME MARITIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC. SOME
OF THESE MAY MAKE THEIR WAY ONSHORE, THE DISSIPATE OVER THE
ATLANTIC METRO AREAS. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
KEEP THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA, AS WELL AS,
KEEP MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THE THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION...
A LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHWEST TO THE GULF WATERS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY APPROACH KAPF AND KPBI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING...ALTHOUGH LEFT ANY VICINITY MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR
NOW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...DELAYED THE ONSET OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST COAST SITES UNTIL 20Z AS MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES DEPICT CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
MARINE...
WITH HURRICANE ARTHUR MOVING AWAY, MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. THERE WILL BE A 1 FOOT SWELL THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. THERE ALSO MAY BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS, MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
.UPDATE...
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HURRICANE ARTHUR CENTERED
EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES AND ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD. A
TRAILING TROUGH FROM ARTHUR EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA THIS MORNING. ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES ARE LOCATED ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...SHOWN VIA THE CONTRAST IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR (PWAT) VALUES WHEN COMPARING THE MORNING
SOUNDINGS AT JACKSONVILLE (PWAT=1.96 INCHES) AND TALLAHASSEE
(PWAT=1.35 INCHES). IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...DEWPOINTS IN
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ARE FALLING INTO THE UPPER
50S...WHILE DEWPOINTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS GAINESVILLE AND PALATKA. DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WHERE PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND ARW INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH BEGINNING AROUND 18Z...GENERALLY FOR
LOCATIONS FROM AMELIA ISLAND TO LAKE CITY AND POINTS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD. WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A FEW STRONGER PULSE STORMS POSSIBLE IN
COASTAL NORTHEAST FL AS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE PINNED
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. GIVEN DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WEAK STEERING FLOW...GUSTY WINDS AND SLOW MOVING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS TODAY. HIGHS IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL LIKELY
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BEFORE
MID-AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. ACTIVITY IN COASTAL ST.
JOHNS/FLAGLER AND AREAS SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE MAY LINGER INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH 16Z AT GNV...OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT GNV
AFTER 19Z...PRODUCING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS 20Z AT THE DUVAL
COUNTY TERMINALS...AND WE WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
JAX...CRG...AND VQQ IN THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE FOR A PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS...LIKELY OCCURRING BETWEEN 20Z-24Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL REGION-WIDE TOWARDS 01Z.
&&
.MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES WERE DROPPED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. SEAS OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO
3-5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND 2-4 FEET TONIGHT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST FL WATERS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS
GENERATED BY DEPARTING HURRICANE ARTHUR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 94 70 94 71 / 0 10 20 20
SSI 91 75 88 75 / 10 10 20 20
JAX 94 73 93 72 / 30 30 30 30
SGJ 91 74 89 74 / 50 50 30 30
GNV 92 70 93 71 / 50 30 40 40
OCF 91 71 92 71 / 50 40 40 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
NELSON/SANDRIK/GUILLET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1024 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
THERE WERE SOME CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PWAT OF AROUND
1.9 INCHES. IN ADDITION THERE ARE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. WITH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES EXPECTED TODAY...INITIATION OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. BUT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERLY WINDS COULD HELP TO SHIFT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR MODEL...SUGGESTS THIS
TREND AS WELL. SO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE ADDED TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS BUT MAINLY EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE 12Z SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED SOME LAYERS OF
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE SO SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION
THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE IS FAVORABLE.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCT TSRA AFT 19-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH
COASTS AROUND 17Z WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARIES.
THE STEERING FLOW IS ERRATIC THIS MORNING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THUS, TSRA MOVEMENT
WITH INTERACTIONS BETWEEN BOUNDARIES WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC SO
ONLY PLACED VCTS IN THE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME BUT THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIG/VSBY FAVORING THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AND
WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA FOR TODAY. GIVEN THE NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OF TONIGHT,
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. LOOKING AT MODEL WINDS, THE STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A GULF BREEZE WILL DEVELOP,
TURNING THE WINDS SOMEWHAT MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SHOWS UP, BUT
VERY WEAK AND DOES NOT LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL BE ABLE TO PENETRATE
TOO FAR INLAND, MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE SW FLOW. THIS MAKES THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE AREA TO BE IN THE INTERIOR, WITH THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AREAS OF BROWARD, PALM BEACH, AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES, AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN AREAS OF COLLIER, GLADES, AND HENDRY COUNTIES.
HOWEVER, AS WITH MOST AFTERNOONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA, CAN NOT RULE
OUT ANY LOCATION ACROSS THE AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR THEIR INTENSITY, YESTERDAY LOOKED SOMEWHAT BETTER. TODAY,
THE 500MB TEMP IS -6.8C. THE 700-500MB LAPSE RATE IS RIGHT AROUND
6 C/KM. THE NCAPE IS AROUND .15 AND CAPE IS LESS THAN 2000 JOULES.
SO,. THIS ADDS UP TO MAINLY GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
THERE IS A DRY LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS THAT COLD HELP BRING A FEW
STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER,
ONLY EXPECTING DOWNDRAFTS OF 40-50 MILES PER HOUR AT THIS TIME.
THE FREEZING LEVEL IS AROUND 15000, WHICH MAKES HAIL DIFFICULT,
AND IF IT DOES FORM, IT SHOULD KEEP IT ON THE SMALL SIDE.
AFTER TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
TURN THE FLOW MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST. WITH THIS CHANGE,
MORE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT FROM THE EASTERN
INTERIOR, TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. THIS WILL
PERSIST WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFORE
MENTIONED AREA EACH AFTERNOON. IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THERE WILL
BE SOME MARITIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC. SOME
OF THESE MAY MAKE THEIR WAY ONSHORE, THE DISSIPATE OVER THE
ATLANTIC METRO AREAS. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
KEEP THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA, AS WELL AS,
KEEP MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THE THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION...
A LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHWEST TO THE GULF WATERS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY APPROACH KAPF AND KPBI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING...ALTHOUGH LEFT ANY VICINITY MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR
NOW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...DELAYED THE ONSET OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST COAST SITES UNTIL 20Z AS MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES DEPICT CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
MARINE...
WITH HURRICANE ARTHUR MOVING AWAY, MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. THERE WILL BE A 1 FOOT SWELL THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. THERE ALSO MAY BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS, MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 78 88 77 / 40 30 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 80 87 79 / 30 30 20 20
MIAMI 90 79 88 78 / 30 30 20 20
NAPLES 89 79 87 78 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....60/BD
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
900 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...SCATTERED STORMS MOVING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING YIELDED A DEEP RELATIVELY MOIST
PROFILE WITH PWATS INVOF 2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL FL. THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE IS SLIGHTLY DRIER AS EVIDENCED BY WV IMAGERY
AND THE GPS SATELLITE ESTIMATE. A SEASONALLY FAVORABLE REGIME (DEEP
SW FLOW) ALONG WITH AMPLE SFC HEATING WL LEAD TO RATHER EARLY ONSET
OF EASTWARD MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS. 3KM HRRR DERIVED REFLECTIVITY
IMAGERY SHOWS THE INITIAL PCPN ASCD WITH AN EASTWARD GULF BOUNDARY
WL LEAD TO SCT SHRA/TS MOVING ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
AFTN AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ECFL AREA FROM EARLY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY WL BE ENHANCED BY MID LVL VORTICITY/SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES
ALONG TO JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A HIGH COVERAGE
COVERAGE OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL SECTIONS IS
ANTICIPATED.
TEMPS AT H5 ARE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...SO THE MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
WITH A FEW WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL MOVE NE ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS WITH THE MID LYR SW FLOW BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
REACHING THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FROM PREVIOUS) SCT TSRA WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 18Z AND AFFECT NRN TERMINALS BTWN
19Z-22Z. SW STEERING FLOW WILL BRING STORMS TOWARD THE COAST FROM
KDAB-KMLB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FOR SRN TERMINALS...ISOLD
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BY EARLY TO
MID AFTN WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER TSRA CHC IN THE LATE AFTN. SOME
CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
00Z-03Z...MAINLY NRN TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...S-SW WINDS TO 10-15 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR
SHORE AND UP TO 3-4 FT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING POSING A HAZARD FOR BOATERS ON THIS INDEPENDENCE
DAY.
SAT-TUE...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING
BACK NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND PERSISTING OVER THE REGION.
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS OUT OF THE S/SW OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
S/SE DURING THE DAY AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2-3 FEET
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...JP
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER...RL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
608 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST TODAY WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY. THE MODELS
INDICATED MID-LEVEL CAPPING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT. THE 06Z HRRR AND 00Z SPC WRF DISPLAYED JUST
ISOLATED SHOWERS. MAINTAINED THE FORECAST OF POPS LESS THAN 10
PERCENT. USED THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE
WILL GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND RECENT VERIFICATION.
THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS INDICATED MID-LEVEL CAPPING CONTINUING.
ALL OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV MOS
HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT.
THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAYED A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGING WITH
TROUGHING BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOWED SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA WITH SOME LEE-SIDE TROUGHING HERE. THE
PATTERN SUPPORTS SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GFS...ECMWF... AND EKD MOS HAD POPS OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE INDICATED
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH
READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HURRICANE ARTHUR CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND IS NOW OFF THE
VIRGINIA CAPES. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF HURRICANE ARTHUR...SHOULD LEAD TO A GENERALLY DRY DAY TODAY.
GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING IS DETERRING FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING.
EXPECT MAINLY SOME AFTERNOON CU WITH DAYTIME HEATING LATER TODAY AND
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS...SHIFTING TO THE NE
BY THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
647 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATED TO ADJUST THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS NOT FORMING ON THE OUTFLOW AS
EXPECTED...SO LOWERED POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MCV/MCS CURRENTLY EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD BACK BUT ARE RECOVERING ACROSS THE
WEST. WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN MO THIS MORNING HAS BEEN REINFORCED
BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MESOSCALE SYSTEM...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTH DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. MODELS AT ODDS ABOUT
CONVECTION COVERAGE TONIGHT...BUT HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THROUGH IOWA OVERNIGHT. WEAKEST PORTION OF THE H700 CAP FAVORS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HRRR REFLECTS SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH
A BAND OF STORMS FORMING AFT 04Z NEAR I80 CORRIDOR...VARIOUS OTHER
SOLUTIONS ALSO FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EAST OR ALONG THE
IOWA/MO BORDER BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND IMPINGES ALONG THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WILL
INCREASE POPS AGAIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE EAST AND
SOUTH...WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SUGGEST SOME SOUTHEASTERLY DRIFT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...IF CONVECTION GETS A
BIT MORE ORGANIZED COULD SEE A QUICK INCH OR TWO TOTAL FROM ANY
STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS PUSHING 13-14KFT
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL RUNNING 1.5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED. AFTER LAST NIGHTS/THIS MORNING RAINFALL... GRIDDED
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS LOWERED TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER A GOOD
SHARE OF THE SOUTH WITH 3 HOURLY GUIDANCE NEARING 2 INCHES OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS. THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER COUNTIES CONTINUE
HIGHER...WITH 2 INCH VALUES FOR 1 HOUR AND 2 TO 3 INCH VALUES FOR
3 HOUR GUIDANCE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...NOT MUCH CAPACITY LEFT IN SOIL
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOWS WILL CREEP UP
TONIGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF MUCH SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN WITH
THE RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE RATHER ACTIVE WX AND AN
OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN OF WESTERLIES INVOF OF IOWA...EVOLVING
FROM BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW TO BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.
MAIN CHALLENGES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE TSRA CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE AS WELL AS LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH
IOWA SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
SUMMER-LIKE...WITH THERMAL RIDGING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
RESULTING IN SEASONALLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S
ARE EXPECTED. AN IMPULSE WILL SWEEP A COOL FRONT INTO THE STATE
ON SUNDAY. QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST ALONG THE FRONT WILL THE TSRA
DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
RESPECTABLE...CAPPING WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE WEST ACROSS THE
STATE. BEST CHANCES OF TSRA WILL BE IN EASTERN IOWA...WHERE THE
CAP WILL BE WEAKER AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE STRONGER. LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY LATE EVENING...SO
HAVE BROUGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE STAGE BY
THAT TIME. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY INVOF THE
IA-MO BORDER BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF TSRA BY LATE
MON. BOTH THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING WILL BE STRONGER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE ONE ON LATE SUN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH ANOTHER COOL FRONT SOUTH THROUGH IOWA...EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY INVOF THE IA-MO BORDER. AMPLE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
SFC-BASED TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST A FEW
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING.
AFTER THE FROPA MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING...CYCLONIC WESTERLIES
WILL DOMINATE THE WX INTO LATER IN THE WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN
WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK IMPULSE PASSES
OVER THE REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
BRINGING ANOTHER BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z RUN
WAS CONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD WITH THE 00Z RUN. THIS SOLUTION IS
ADMITTEDLY DIFFERENT THAN LAST NIGHT/S LONG TERM PACKAGE WHICH
KEPT THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE CWA. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE CWA TO END THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...06/00Z
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTHERN MO WILL LIFT
SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD MFR AND IFR
STRATUS DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR FOG
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WELL. VFR BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME
OPTED TO PUT IN VCTS OVER THE NERN TAF SITES. FEEL CAPPING WILL
HOLD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT WILL BE
MONITORED.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME NUMEROUS OVER THE NERN
HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE BY TUE...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MS JUL 14
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...MS JUL 14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
617 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MCV/MCS CURRENTLY EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD BACK BUT ARE RECOVERING ACROSS THE
WEST. WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN MO THIS MORNING HAS BEEN REINFORCED
BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MESOSCALE SYSTEM...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTH DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. MODELS AT ODDS ABOUT
CONVECTION COVERAGE TONIGHT...BUT HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THROUGH IOWA OVERNIGHT. WEAKEST PORTION OF THE H700 CAP FAVORS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HRRR REFLECTS SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH
A BAND OF STORMS FORMING AFT 04Z NEAR I80 CORRIDOR...VARIOUS OTHER
SOLUTIONS ALSO FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EAST OR ALONG THE
IOWA/MO BORDER BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND IMPINGES ALONG THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WILL
INCREASE POPS AGAIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE EAST AND
SOUTH...WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SUGGEST SOME SOUTHEASTERLY DRIFT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...IF CONVECTION GETS A
BIT MORE ORGANIZED COULD SEE A QUICK INCH OR TWO TOTAL FROM ANY
STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS PUSHING 13-14KFT
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL RUNNING 1.5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED. AFTER LAST NIGHTS/THIS MORNING RAINFALL... GRIDDED
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS LOWERED TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER A GOOD
SHARE OF THE SOUTH WITH 3 HOURLY GUIDANCE NEARING 2 INCHES OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS. THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER COUNTIES CONTINUE
HIGHER...WITH 2 INCH VALUES FOR 1 HOUR AND 2 TO 3 INCH VALUES FOR
3 HOUR GUIDANCE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...NOT MUCH CAPACITY LEFT IN SOIL
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOWS WILL CREEP UP
TONIGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF MUCH SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN WITH
THE RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE RATHER ACTIVE WX AND AN
OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN OF WESTERLIES INVOF OF IOWA...EVOLVING
FROM BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW TO BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.
MAIN CHALLENGES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE TSRA CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE AS WELL AS LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH
IOWA SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
SUMMER-LIKE...WITH THERMAL RIDGING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
RESULTING IN SEASONALLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S
ARE EXPECTED. AN IMPULSE WILL SWEEP A COOL FRONT INTO THE STATE
ON SUNDAY. QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST ALONG THE FRONT WILL THE TSRA
DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
RESPECTABLE...CAPPING WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE WEST ACROSS THE
STATE. BEST CHANCES OF TSRA WILL BE IN EASTERN IOWA...WHERE THE
CAP WILL BE WEAKER AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE STRONGER. LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY LATE EVENING...SO
HAVE BROUGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE STAGE BY
THAT TIME. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY INVOF THE
IA-MO BORDER BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF TSRA BY LATE
MON. BOTH THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING WILL BE STRONGER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE ONE ON LATE SUN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH ANOTHER COOL FRONT SOUTH THROUGH IOWA...EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY INVOF THE IA-MO BORDER. AMPLE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
SFC-BASED TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST A FEW
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING.
AFTER THE FROPA MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING...CYCLONIC WESTERLIES
WILL DOMINATE THE WX INTO LATER IN THE WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN
WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK IMPULSE PASSES
OVER THE REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
BRINGING ANOTHER BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z RUN
WAS CONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD WITH THE 00Z RUN. THIS SOLUTION IS
ADMITTEDLY DIFFERENT THAN LAST NIGHT/S LONG TERM PACKAGE WHICH
KEPT THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE CWA. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE CWA TO END THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...06/00Z
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTHERN MO WILL LIFT
SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD MFR AND IFR
STRATUS DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR FOG
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WELL. VFR BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME
OPTED TO PUT IN VCTS OVER THE NERN TAF SITES. FEEL CAPPING WILL
HOLD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT WILL BE
MONITORED.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME NUMEROUS OVER THE NERN
HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE BY TUE...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...MS JUL 14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
957 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
...Updated for short term thunderstorm chances...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
Short term models (HRRR, RAP13) continue to try to develop
convection over eastern Kansas this evening, and it continues to
not develop to this point. New NAM not as aggressive as previous
two runs, but still has spotty precip and more persistent precip
in east central KS through tonight. Water vapor imagery showing
one mid- level shortwave trough move southeastward across central
and eastern KS, and weak subsidence behind it may be helping to
suppress evening convection in KS. Models do have postive theta-e
advection in the 850 to 700 mb layer for later this evening
through 1 AM, so have not removed POPs from eastern KS, but have
dropped them for north central KS for tonight. Any thunderstorms
that do form will obviously have the potential for heavy rain with
precipitable water values near 2" and decent moisture transport
evident at 850 mb.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
Forecast today quickly challenged with mesoscale conditions as
convective complex moved across eastern Nebraska in the early
morning hours. An outflow boundary then moved southwest into
northeast Kansas, through about Topeka to just east of Marysville.
As southwesterly surface winds have strengthened through the day,
they have worked to counter slightly reinforced outflow and push
this boundary back to the north. Little progress was made on the
east end, and appears as though the incoming upper shortwave
evident on WV imagery will move across this boundary for the
remainder of the afternoon and evening hours.
While shear is not ideal, and high surface dewpoints not conducive
for a high end wind threat, there is enough instability
(2000-3000J/kg range) to consider hail and possibly locally heavy
rainfall a threat if these storms develop and move through.
Forecast is certainly probabilistic - GFS confines convection more
east, as does the EC, although the EC is slower with its exit
through the morning on Sunday. The HRRR and NAM extend area of
convection farther westward from NE KS and drop cluster of precip
south southeast across the area through the evening hours. Have
played the forecast toward the latter, although kept coverage
isolated in nature as it passes through. Can`t rule out a bust with
precip, especially as you go west, but do think the far eastern
counties will see hit and miss showers and thunderstorms as the
evening goes on.
Heat returns on Sunday as mid level temperatures climb under the
shortwave ridge behind the departing shortwave trof. Have highs in
the 90s with heat indices coming out in the 99-103 range as the
dewpoints hold around 70 east to the 60s west...however western
counties are hotter so in the end heat index differences are subtle
at best.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
By Sunday evening the cold front dips southward from central NE,
straddling the KS and NE border near 00Z. The main upper trough
positioned to our north and east at this time has given guidance
lower confidence in precip developing near the weakly convergent
frontal boundary until after midnight. Northern areas of the CWA
have a slight chance for thunderstorms while most of the CWA
remains dry.
Monday afternoon will be another hot and humid day as the surface
trough over western KS deepens, increasing southwesterly flow and
mixing of warmer air aloft. Highs once again in the mid to upper 90s
are likely with heat indices between 100 and 103 degrees. A more
potent shortwave trough digs southward through the plains on Monday
evening, shunting the cold front through the CWA by 18Z Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the Nebraska and
northwest MO border, decreasing to a chance further south as the
heavier precip bands follow the upper trough axis centered over
central/northern MO. Wind shear through 6 KM increases overnight
with the passing wave between 30 and 40 kts while MLCAPE is around
1500 J/KG. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out, especially if
they redevelop or are able to become sfc based in the afternoon.
Winds shift back towards the south with another incoming upper wave
expected Wednesday evening. Trends show the heavier precip bands to
impact mainly north central and portions of central KS where highest
pops were placed. Precipitation will wane as it lifts northeast
through Thursday, replaced by temporary ridging on Friday. Saturday
begins the unsettled pattern once again as northwest flow begins
to bring another series of weak disturbances through the region.
Highs behind the boundary Tuesday through Thursday will cool back to
the 80s with lows in the upper 60s. Increased warm advection Friday
and Saturday, raise temps once again to the 90s accompanied by lows
in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
Would expect VFR through period, except if thunderstorms develop
and move across TAF sites. Right now expect a gradual decrease in
southerly winds through the evening, then a chance of
thunderstorms developing in northeast KS/southeast Nebraska in the
next couple hours. These thunderstorms could move across TOP and
FOE in the 02Z to 07Z time frame, but confidence is not high. MHK
has a lesser chance and have left any indicator out at this time.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GDP
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...GDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
651 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
Forecast today quickly challenged with mesoscale conditions as
convective complex moved across eastern Nebraska in the early
morning hours. An outflow boundary then moved southwest into
northeast Kansas, through about Topeka to just east of Marysville.
As southwesterly surface winds have strengthened through the day,
they have worked to counter slightly reinforced outflow and push
this boundary back to the north. Little progress was made on the
east end, and appears as though the incoming upper shortwave
evident on WV imagery will move across this boundary for the
remainder of the afternoon and evening hours.
While shear is not ideal, and high surface dewpoints not conducive
for a high end wind threat, there is enough instability
(2000-3000J/kg range) to consider hail and possibly locally heavy
rainfall a threat if these storms develop and move through.
Forecast is certainly probabilistic - GFS confines convection more
east, as does the EC, although the EC is slower with its exit
through the morning on Sunday. The HRRR and NAM extend area of
convection farther westward from NE KS and drop cluster of precip
south southeast across the area through the evening hours. Have
played the forecast toward the latter, although kept coverage
isolated in nature as it passes through. Can`t rule out a bust with
precip, especially as you go west, but do think the far eastern
counties will see hit and miss showers and thunderstorms as the
evening goes on.
Heat returns on Sunday as mid level temperatures climb under the
shortwave ridge behind the departing shortwave trof. Have highs in
the 90s with heat indices coming out in the 99-103 range as the
dewpoints hold around 70 east to the 60s west...however western
counties are hotter so in the end heat index differences are subtle
at best.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
By Sunday evening the cold front dips southward from central NE,
straddling the KS and NE border near 00Z. The main upper trough
positioned to our north and east at this time has given guidance
lower confidence in precip developing near the weakly convergent
frontal boundary until after midnight. Northern areas of the CWA
have a slight chance for thunderstorms while most of the CWA
remains dry.
Monday afternoon will be another hot and humid day as the surface
trough over western KS deepens, increasing southwesterly flow and
mixing of warmer air aloft. Highs once again in the mid to upper 90s
are likely with heat indices between 100 and 103 degrees. A more
potent shortwave trough digs southward through the plains on Monday
evening, shunting the cold front through the CWA by 18Z Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the Nebraska and
northwest MO border, decreasing to a chance further south as the
heavier precip bands follow the upper trough axis centered over
central/northern MO. Wind shear through 6 KM increases overnight
with the passing wave between 30 and 40 kts while MLCAPE is around
1500 J/KG. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out, especially if
they redevelop or are able to become sfc based in the afternoon.
Winds shift back towards the south with another incoming upper wave
expected Wednesday evening. Trends show the heavier precip bands to
impact mainly north central and portions of central KS where highest
pops were placed. Precipitation will wane as it lifts northeast
through Thursday, replaced by temporary ridging on Friday. Saturday
begins the unsettled pattern once again as northwest flow begins
to bring another series of weak disturbances through the region.
Highs behind the boundary Tuesday through Thursday will cool back to
the 80s with lows in the upper 60s. Increased warm advection Friday
and Saturday, raise temps once again to the 90s accompanied by lows
in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
Would expect VFR through period, except if thunderstorms develop
and move across TAF sites. Right now expect a gradual decrease in
southerly winds through the evening, then a chance of
thunderstorms developing in northeast KS/southeast Nebraska in the
next couple hours. These thunderstorms could move across TOP and
FOE in the 02Z to 07Z time frame, but confidence is not high. MHK
has a lesser chance and have left any indicator out at this time.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...GDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1144 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING TOUGH NEAR THE WESTERN END
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOTHING REALLY CATCHING THIS...AND THIS
CLUSTER IS MOSTLY BEING DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE AFFECTS. SO RAISED
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE FAR WEST THROUGH THE EVENING. LEFT THE
POPS ALONE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
BASED ON THUNDERSTORM BLOWOFF TO THE WEST AND WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE
SOME STRATUS ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT...INCREASED CLOUD COVER. NOT
SURE HOW FAR EAST CONVECTION WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WAS
TEMPTED TO PULL IT BACK FURTHER WEST. HOWEVER...THE HRRR FOR MOST
OF THIS SHIFT AND NOW THE RAP ARE HINTING AT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROWING OUT A RATHER
SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT GETS DRAPED OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW.
THIS COULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE CONVECTION.
SO CHOSE TO NOT DO ANYTHING WITH THE POPS DUE TO POSSIBLE
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES AND WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WATCH THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
GENERALLY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER AHEAD OF A 700MB SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WHERE DEW POINTS ARE ABOVE 60 DEGREES. AT THE SURFACE BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER...WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. FURTHER WEST A DRY LINE WAS
LOCATED WEST OF LIMON EXTENDING TO THE NORTH/SOUTH. AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE DRY LINE WILL MOVE TO JUST WEST OF THE KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES. MEANWHILE A WEAK 500MB TROUGH OVER
THE DRY LINE MAY SPARK SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING THE 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS SOME AND MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH PARCELS ABLE TO TAP INTO THE SURFACE BASED CAPE
INTO MID EVENING...DECIDED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 800MB DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF
THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTS HIGHER MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL OVERNIGHT OVER THE EAST 1/3 AS
THE 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ELEVATED CAPE AND THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS NEAR SUNRISE.
FRIDAY MORNING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE OVER THE EAST
1/3 AS ELEVATED CONVECTION LINGERS AHEAD OF THE 500MB SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE DRY LINE WEST OF THE AREA MOVES
EAST TO THE CO/KS LINE AS ANOTHER 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS TO BE STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND WITH THE ADDED HELP OF THE DRY LINE HAVE
A BIT HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON THAN FOR
TODAY. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE DRY
LINE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST BUT STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE DRY LINE
AND MOVES EAST INTO BETTER INSTABILITY. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON SINCE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE
20-25KTS...DECLINING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STORM COVERAGE
INCREASES.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID MORNING...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY EAST OF HWY 25.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS A WARMER
AIR MASS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOME FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN REBUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN EASTERN COLORADO
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY.
VERY WARM H7 TEMPERATURES FROM 14 TO 16 C ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FA FRIDAY EVENING WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD FORM ON THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST WITH 0-6KM WINDS AT 5 TO 10KTS. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FA, IT IS UNCERTAIN
THAT STORMS WOULD MAKE IT THAT FAR. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR THIS SCENARIO.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVEN WARMER H7 TEMPERATURES SPREAD ACROSS THE
FA.ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE. POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THESE PERIODS.
850MB TEMPERATURES AT 32 WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR 100
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW WILL BRING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
AT KGLD...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES. WHAT ELEVATED CONVECTION OCCURS TONIGHT
LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF BOTH SITES. SOME GUSTY WINDS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WILL DECREASE SHORTLY BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD INDICATE THAT
NO THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EITHER SITE. SINCE TOO FAR OUT AND
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...CHOSE TO LEAVE ALL MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
OUT OF BOTH TAFS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
713 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO
THE NRN PLAINS AND A DOWNSTREAM WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO(NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR)
COMBINED WITH 25-30 KNOT 850-750 MB INFLOW OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR (MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 40 KNOT 0-6KM SHEAR
SUPPORTED STRONG CONVECTION OVER NE MN AND ADJOINING PORTION OF
ONTARIO. SOME SHRA/TSRA WERE ALSO SLIDING INTO LAKE SUPERIOR BUT
WERE WEAKENING AS THE CONVECTION MOVED AWAY FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE
AIR. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE AND SSW FLOW WAA PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE ONGOING SHRA/TSRA INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY SLIDE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NRN
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...PER RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANG HIGH RES
MODELS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM LATE
THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS MUCH HIGHER WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF MCS DEVELOPMENT AND ITS EVENTUAL TRACK. EXPECT THAT THE HIGHER
SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF UPPER MI BUT THAT
SOME MAY MOVE INTO UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WITH ONLY
LIMITED MUCAPE INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...ANY TSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
SUNDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER SHRTWV AND COLD FRONT MOVE TOWARD THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THAT
DEPENDS ON THE AMOUNT OF THICKER CLOUDS THAT LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH CLEARING DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS TO ALLOW TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 80S(DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S)...MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K RANGE COMBINED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 35-40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE ORGANIZED STORMS. 0-1KM
HELICITY/SHAPE IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS/SUPERCELLS.
IF MORE PROMINENT CLOUDS REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE GREATER
INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAINLY OVER WI AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE FAR SRN CWA. NMRS SHRA/TSRA OVER CNTRL UPPER MI DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE S AND ERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND SFC LOW WILL BE JUST N OF THE CWA WITH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA AT 00Z MON.
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY SEVERE /SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE
DETAILS ON SEVERE THREAT/...WILL BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. BY 06Z MON...THE FRONT
WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE ERN CWA...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION E OF
THE CWA.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO MOVE N OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY ON MON...BUT FORCING WILL STAY N KEEPING THE CWA DRY FOR THE
MOST PART. THE NAM IS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN MON
EVENING...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN PRECIP LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN
CWA...BUT MOST OTHER MODELS SHOW THIS COMING IN MON NIGHT OR EVEN
EARLY TUE. AS IS USUAL WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS IS QUITE LOW THIS
FAR OUT.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MON NIGHT OR TUE...WHICH
APPEARS TO STAY S OF THE CWA. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO
MOVE OVER THE NRN CWA TUE NIGHT...BUT WITH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE SHORTWAVE.
WITH THE GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WILL LEAD TO AN ABOVE NORMAL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL OCCUR THU THROUGH NEXT
SAT...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR
CIGS/VSBY LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA WITH THE INCREASING SRLY FLOW. SOME TSRA ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE
CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION/TIMING IS ONLY MARGINAL...TEMPO GROUPS
WERE INCLUDED OVER THE WEST AND NORTH. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUN MORNING AND
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN FOR LATE SUN MORNING INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXIT
EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOK FOR THE RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TO
WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR S MANITOBA SUNDAY MORNING SLIDES ACROSS
ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL DEEPEN SW OF JAMES BAY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH AVERAGING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN OR NEAR ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
137 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
LOOKS LIKE A GREAT /AND DRY/ DAY FOR OUTDOOR CELEBRATIONS ACROSS
UPPER MI.
HAVE PULLED SPRINKLES FROM THE FORECAST WHERE THEY WERE MENTIONED
OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVELS ARE
QUITE DRY AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE
DRYNESS. ADDITIONALLY...NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING QPF IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA. THE RAP EVEN CORRECTLY SHOWS THE WEAK SHOWER
OR TWO CURRENTLY N OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...WHICH WERE NOT PRESENT AT
MODEL INITIALIZATION...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA...BUT DISSIPATES THOSE SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE CLOSER
TO THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE CWA. VIRGA SEEMS A MORE LIKELY OUTCOME
THAN SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI /AFTER 03Z SAT/...THE
UPSTREAM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WCENTRAL MN HAS NOT
PANNED OUT QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS HIGH-RES MODEL RUNS
INDICATED. THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP SHOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
PRODUCING 0.01-0.03 INCHES OF QPF FROM GOGEBIC COUNTY MI TO ASHLAND
COUNTY WI. THE LATEST LOCAL HIGH-RES WRF RUN KEEPS THIS AREA DRY.
HAVE CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH 03Z SAT FOR FAR WRN UPPER MI.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHICH CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THERE ARE TWO LARGER WAVES TO NOTE
AND A MORE SUBTLE THIRD WAVE THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FIRST WAVE DROPPED THROUGH THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND PRODUCED SCATTERED/FEW MID CLOUDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL ONLY BRING A
FEW MID CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.P. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE CWA IS EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH FROM
A HIGH CENTERED IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THOSE CONDITIONS HAVE
PRODUCED GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HAS ALLOWED 3AM TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE 40S...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES AT THE NORMAL COLD
SPOTS (DOE LAKE...SPINCICH LATE) IN THE UPPER 30S.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...WHICH LOOKS MORE POTENT THE CURRENT WAVE ON WV
IMAGERY AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...IS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JUST STARTING TO
COME INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS ARE INSISTENT ON THIS WAVE
QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA BY 15Z. THOSE TWO WAVES WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH
EAST AND OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...AS IT MERGES WITH
HURRICANE ARTHUR TONIGHT. BACK TO THIS AREA...THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY...BUT STILL KEEP
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A QUICK WARM-UP AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
LIKE YESTERDAY...THE DEEP MIXING INLAND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CU
DEVELOPMENT AROUND 6-8KFT SO HAVE FOLLOWED 750MB MOISTURE FROM THE
MODELS FOR SKY COVER TODAY. THEREFORE...HAVE CU DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE DAY (GENERALLY 19-20Z AND LATER) AND HAVE THE INTERIOR WEST AND
ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL BECOMING PARTLY TO NEARLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL MOISTURE ON THAT LEVEL IS GENERALLY A
LITTLE DRIER THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH SEEMS TO BE WHY MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING NO PRECIP. THE ONLY MODEL PRODUCING PRECIP
IS THE 00Z NAM...AND EVEN THAT HAS TRIMMED BACK THE QPF FROM WHAT
THE 07/03 12Z/18Z RUNS WERE SHOWING (NOW JUST SHOWING A LITTLE SPECK
OF 0.01IN QPF OVER MARQUETTE COUNTY). THE AREA THAT IS SHOWS
PRECIP MATCHES UP WITH WHERE THE LAKE SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS LIKELY MORE
DUE TO REMAINING IN AN AREA THAT ISN/T EXPERIENCING THE LAKE
STABILITY. A FEW OF THE HIRES MODELS THAT DON/T SPIT OUT QPF DO
INDICATE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON THE MODEL SIMULATED COMP
REFLECTIVITY. THINK THAT THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IS CONTRIBUTING TO
THIS (INVERTED-V LOOK TO THE SOUNDINGS) AND LIMITING PRECIP
ACCUMULATION. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A REALLY THIN SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON (CURRENTLY PRODUCING THE HIGH CLOUDS
NEAR AND EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG)...WHICH COULD AID IN THE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. SINCE THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PERFORMED VERY WELL
YESTERDAY...WOULD HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT THEIR IDEA OF NO PRECIP
TODAY IS REASONABLE. THUS...WILL TRIM BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCES TO
JUST SOME SPRINKLES FOR GENERALLY THE MARQUETTE COUNTY AREA.
SINCE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...A LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN SASKATCHEWAN TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST AND LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHING SOUTH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THINK THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH HELP
FROM A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND MOVE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE AREA
TONIGHT. STORM MOTIONS ARE GENERALLY IN A EASTERLY DIRECTION
AND SIMILAR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK OF THE WAA...SO THINK THAT
THE MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE DOING A DECENT JOB IN TRACKING IT TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUALLY INCREASING SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS OVER THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS TO BE A REALLY NICE EVENING FOR FIREWORKS WITH
TEMPERATURES AT SUNSET IN THE 60S. ONE LAST ITEM TO NOTE. WILL NEED
TO WATCH THE AREA IN EASTERN SD AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. NCEP
WRF RUNS THE AREA WHERE THERE ARE SOME BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS AND
ISOLATE SHOWERS EXPANDING THIS MORNING AND THEN LIFTING TOWARDS THE
FAR WESTERN CWA TOWARDS SUNSET. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOSE TRENDS
THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 547 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
A SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH A WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGHS BRIEFLY GO BACK ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO
TROUGHING ALOFT AND A COOLER AIRMASS FOR EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. MODELS DO HINT THAT BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...MID
JULY...RIDGING ALOFT AND A PERIOD OF WARMER TEMPERATURES
MAY SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AGAIN
THIS WARMUP DOES NOT LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MORE THAN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
SATURDAY...ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO. MODELS SHOW CONVECTION FIRING
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE FRI EVENING OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO NW
ONTARIO ALONG 1000-850 MB THETA-E AXIS...AREA OF 1000+ J/KG ELEVATED
MUCAPE AND AT NOSE OF 35 KT 8H JET MAX. MODELS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE REMNANTS OF THESE STORMS COULD REACH INTO WRN/NCNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NW UPPER MI LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR
THE MOST PART HOWEVER...EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL MAINTAIN A
DIMINISHING TREND TO POPS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE
EVENTUALLY MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND TAKES BEST H85-H7
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH IT. UNDER PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SW
WINDS TO 20-25 KTS...EXPECT TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER 80S
AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN WHERE IT SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WAA ESPECIALLY FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE FROM SCSNTRL CANADA WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA AS COLD FRONT/INSTABILITY AXIS WORKS
EAST TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES. BASED ON WHERE BEST INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED NEAR THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IT LOOKS LIKE STORMS
WOULD INITIATE OVER NRN MN OR NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS AND DIFFLUENT THICKNESS PATTERN WOULD
SUGGEST STORMS SOME STORMS COULD MOVE INTO WRN UPPER MI LATE SAT
NIGHT SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS OVER THESE AREAS WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS TO THE SE AND ERN CWA. GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS.
SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA...POTENTIALLY STRONG OR SEVERE
WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS WNW FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO SEND SHORTWAVES OVER THE AREA...AND SFC COLD FRONT SAGS
SE ACROSS UPPER MI. KEY WILL BE HOW MUCH INSOLATION/HEATING AND SFC
BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED. MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR IS H85 WINDS
VEERING MORE WNW BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CUTTING DOWN ON
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. BEST SHOT OF STRONGER STORMS WOULD
PROBABLY BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY AXIS OF NEAR 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE LOCATED. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON MIXING DOWN H85 TEMPS UP
TO +18C...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. IF THERE IS ENOUGH
SUNSHINE...MAY SEE TEMPS NEAR 90 DEGREES. BEST SHOT OF SUCH WARM
TEMPS WOULD PROBABLY BE SCNTRL CWA AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN.
BEHIND SUNDAY/S COLD FROPA....TROUGHING ALOFT BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW FLOW ALOFT AND PERIODIC SHORTWAVES DROPPING
THROUGH THE FLOW PATTERN COULD TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLD TSRA AT TIMES MON INTO WED...ESPECIALLY INLAND WEST HALF.
OTHERWISE...NORTH TO NORTH WINDS AT THE SFC WILL KEEP STABLIZED LAKE
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPR 50S
TO UPR 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND READINGS IN THE 70S INLAND AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. MODELS HINT AT RIDGING AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST BY THU WITH TEMPS LIKELY REBOUNDING CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL THREE
SITES TODAY. KIWD MAY SWITCH AROUND FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THEN SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. KCMX WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE KSAW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE AND THEN SWITCH
TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE MICHIGAN BREEZE
MOVES THROUGH. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL COME AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR KCMX...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THEM
SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SITE. FINALLY...MAY NEED LLWS AT
KIWD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THIS LOW WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO QUEBEC...BUT IT WILL DRAG A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE COOL LAKE SUPERIOR
WATER TEMPERATURES TO HELP DEVELOP A MARINE LAYER THAT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS BELOW 20KTS THROUGH SUNDAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20KTS AS A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF WARM MOIST AIR MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND EXPECTED RAINFALL...WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TITUS
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1153 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
LOOKS LIKE A GREAT /AND DRY/ DAY FOR OUTDOOR CELEBRATIONS ACROSS
UPPER MI.
HAVE PULLED SPRINKLES FROM THE FORECAST WHERE THEY WERE MENTIONED
OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVELS ARE
QUITE DRY AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE
DRYNESS. ADDITIONALLY...NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING QPF IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA. THE RAP EVEN CORRECTLY SHOWS THE WEAK SHOWER
OR TWO CURRENTLY N OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...WHICH WERE NOT PRESENT AT
MODEL INITIALIZATION...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA...BUT DISSIPATES THOSE SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE CLOSER
TO THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE CWA. VIRGA SEEMS A MORE LIKELY OUTCOME
THAN SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI /AFTER 03Z SAT/...THE
UPSTREAM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WCENTRAL MN HAS NOT
PANNED OUT QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS HIGH-RES MODEL RUNS
INDICATED. THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP SHOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
PRODUCING 0.01-0.03 INCHES OF QPF FROM GOGEBIC COUNTY MI TO ASHLAND
COUNTY WI. THE LATEST LOCAL HIGH-RES WRF RUN KEEPS THIS AREA DRY.
HAVE CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH 03Z SAT FOR FAR WRN UPPER MI.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHICH CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THERE ARE TWO LARGER WAVES TO NOTE
AND A MORE SUBTLE THIRD WAVE THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FIRST WAVE DROPPED THROUGH THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND PRODUCED SCATTERED/FEW MID CLOUDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL ONLY BRING A
FEW MID CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.P. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE CWA IS EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH FROM
A HIGH CENTERED IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THOSE CONDITIONS HAVE
PRODUCED GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HAS ALLOWED 3AM TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE 40S...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES AT THE NORMAL COLD
SPOTS (DOE LAKE...SPINCICH LATE) IN THE UPPER 30S.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...WHICH LOOKS MORE POTENT THE CURRENT WAVE ON WV
IMAGERY AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...IS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JUST STARTING TO
COME INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS ARE INSISTENT ON THIS WAVE
QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA BY 15Z. THOSE TWO WAVES WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH
EAST AND OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...AS IT MERGES WITH
HURRICANE ARTHUR TONIGHT. BACK TO THIS AREA...THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY...BUT STILL KEEP
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A QUICK WARM-UP AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
LIKE YESTERDAY...THE DEEP MIXING INLAND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CU
DEVELOPMENT AROUND 6-8KFT SO HAVE FOLLOWED 750MB MOISTURE FROM THE
MODELS FOR SKY COVER TODAY. THEREFORE...HAVE CU DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE DAY (GENERALLY 19-20Z AND LATER) AND HAVE THE INTERIOR WEST AND
ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL BECOMING PARTLY TO NEARLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL MOISTURE ON THAT LEVEL IS GENERALLY A
LITTLE DRIER THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH SEEMS TO BE WHY MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING NO PRECIP. THE ONLY MODEL PRODUCING PRECIP
IS THE 00Z NAM...AND EVEN THAT HAS TRIMMED BACK THE QPF FROM WHAT
THE 07/03 12Z/18Z RUNS WERE SHOWING (NOW JUST SHOWING A LITTLE SPECK
OF 0.01IN QPF OVER MARQUETTE COUNTY). THE AREA THAT IS SHOWS
PRECIP MATCHES UP WITH WHERE THE LAKE SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS LIKELY MORE
DUE TO REMAINING IN AN AREA THAT ISN/T EXPERIENCING THE LAKE
STABILITY. A FEW OF THE HIRES MODELS THAT DON/T SPIT OUT QPF DO
INDICATE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON THE MODEL SIMULATED COMP
REFLECTIVITY. THINK THAT THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IS CONTRIBUTING TO
THIS (INVERTED-V LOOK TO THE SOUNDINGS) AND LIMITING PRECIP
ACCUMULATION. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A REALLY THIN SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON (CURRENTLY PRODUCING THE HIGH CLOUDS
NEAR AND EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG)...WHICH COULD AID IN THE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. SINCE THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PERFORMED VERY WELL
YESTERDAY...WOULD HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT THEIR IDEA OF NO PRECIP
TODAY IS REASONABLE. THUS...WILL TRIM BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCES TO
JUST SOME SPRINKLES FOR GENERALLY THE MARQUETTE COUNTY AREA.
SINCE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...A LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN SASKATCHEWAN TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST AND LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHING SOUTH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THINK THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH HELP
FROM A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND MOVE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE AREA
TONIGHT. STORM MOTIONS ARE GENERALLY IN A EASTERLY DIRECTION
AND SIMILAR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK OF THE WAA...SO THINK THAT
THE MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE DOING A DECENT JOB IN TRACKING IT TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUALLY INCREASING SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS OVER THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS TO BE A REALLY NICE EVENING FOR FIREWORKS WITH
TEMPERATURES AT SUNSET IN THE 60S. ONE LAST ITEM TO NOTE. WILL NEED
TO WATCH THE AREA IN EASTERN SD AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. NCEP
WRF RUNS THE AREA WHERE THERE ARE SOME BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS AND
ISOLATE SHOWERS EXPANDING THIS MORNING AND THEN LIFTING TOWARDS THE
FAR WESTERN CWA TOWARDS SUNSET. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOSE TRENDS
THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 547 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
A SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH A WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGHS BRIEFLY GO BACK ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO
TROUGHING ALOFT AND A COOLER AIRMASS FOR EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. MODELS DO HINT THAT BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...MID
JULY...RIDGING ALOFT AND A PERIOD OF WARMER TEMPERATURES
MAY SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AGAIN
THIS WARMUP DOES NOT LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MORE THAN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
SATURDAY...ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO. MODELS SHOW CONVECTION FIRING
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE FRI EVENING OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO NW
ONTARIO ALONG 1000-850 MB THETA-E AXIS...AREA OF 1000+ J/KG ELEVATED
MUCAPE AND AT NOSE OF 35 KT 8H JET MAX. MODELS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE REMNANTS OF THESE STORMS COULD REACH INTO WRN/NCNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NW UPPER MI LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR
THE MOST PART HOWEVER...EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL MAINTAIN A
DIMINISHING TREND TO POPS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE
EVENTUALLY MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND TAKES BEST H85-H7
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH IT. UNDER PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SW
WINDS TO 20-25 KTS...EXPECT TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER 80S
AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN WHERE IT SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WAA ESPECIALLY FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE FROM SCSNTRL CANADA WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA AS COLD FRONT/INSTABILITY AXIS WORKS
EAST TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES. BASED ON WHERE BEST INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED NEAR THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IT LOOKS LIKE STORMS
WOULD INITIATE OVER NRN MN OR NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS AND DIFFLUENT THICKNESS PATTERN WOULD
SUGGEST STORMS SOME STORMS COULD MOVE INTO WRN UPPER MI LATE SAT
NIGHT SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS OVER THESE AREAS WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS TO THE SE AND ERN CWA. GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS.
SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA...POTENTIALLY STRONG OR SEVERE
WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS WNW FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO SEND SHORTWAVES OVER THE AREA...AND SFC COLD FRONT SAGS
SE ACROSS UPPER MI. KEY WILL BE HOW MUCH INSOLATION/HEATING AND SFC
BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED. MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR IS H85 WINDS
VEERING MORE WNW BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CUTTING DOWN ON
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. BEST SHOT OF STRONGER STORMS WOULD
PROBABLY BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY AXIS OF NEAR 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE LOCATED. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON MIXING DOWN H85 TEMPS UP
TO +18C...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. IF THERE IS ENOUGH
SUNSHINE...MAY SEE TEMPS NEAR 90 DEGREES. BEST SHOT OF SUCH WARM
TEMPS WOULD PROBABLY BE SCNTRL CWA AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN.
BEHIND SUNDAY/S COLD FROPA....TROUGHING ALOFT BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW FLOW ALOFT AND PERIODIC SHORTWAVES DROPPING
THROUGH THE FLOW PATTERN COULD TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLD TSRA AT TIMES MON INTO WED...ESPECIALLY INLAND WEST HALF.
OTHERWISE...NORTH TO NORTH WINDS AT THE SFC WILL KEEP STABLIZED LAKE
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPR 50S
TO UPR 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND READINGS IN THE 70S INLAND AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. MODELS HINT AT RIDGING AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST BY THU WITH TEMPS LIKELY REBOUNDING CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL THREE
SITES TODAY. KIWD MAY SWITCH AROUND FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THEN SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. KCMX WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE KSAW WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND NOON FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE AND THEN SWITCH
TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE MICHIGAN BREEZE
MOVES THROUGH. SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH BASED DIURNAL CU (ALONG WITH
SOME VIRGA) AT KSAW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR
KCMX...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THEM SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SITE. FINALLY...MAY NEED LLWS AT KIWD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL
CANADA. SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT THE SURFACE AND
CREATE BORDERLINE VALUES...HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THIS LOW WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO QUEBEC...BUT IT WILL DRAG A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE COOL LAKE SUPERIOR
WATER TEMPERATURES TO HELP DEVELOP A MARINE LAYER THAT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS BELOW 20KTS THROUGH SUNDAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20KTS AS A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF WARM MOIST AIR MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND EXPECTED RAINFALL...WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TITUS
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
713 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
THE REGION... BUT ONCE AGAIN THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THAT POTENTIAL
WILL BE REALIZED. WE SHOULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON... WHICH WILL LIKELY GROW UP SCALE INTO AN MCS.
IF THIS OCCURS OVER NORTH DAKOTA AS MOST OF THE MODELS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS... IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF IT WOULD TRANSLATE EAST ALONG
THE THICKNESS CONTOURS AND MISS US TO THE NORTH. THERE ARE SOME
HINTS IN THE CAM SOLUTIONS THAT A SECOND COMPLEX COULD DEVELOP
FARTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA... BUT IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR IT
WOULD LIKELY TRANSLATE MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MISS US TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. A THIRD POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WOULD ACTUALLY BE
SOONER... DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER OUR NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST CWFA... IF ANYTHING MANAGES TO DEVELOP IN THE CU FIELD
CURRENTLY IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. A COUPLE OF HOPWRF MEMBERS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT IS
POSSIBLE... BUT THE OTHER MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE HRRR KEEP ANY OF
THAT NORTH OF THE AREA. SO... OVERALL THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT... BUT IT IS BY NO MEANS A SLAM DUNK. WILL ALLOW POPS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH SOME DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS... WITH THAT AREA LOOKING TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE
SOMETHING. ANYTHING THAT/S OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WOULD SHIFT
EAST IN THE MORNING... SO TRANSLATED SOME CHANCE POPS EASTWARD. WE
WOULD THEN NEED TO LOOK TOWARD DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT... WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE. THAT
TIMING IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
AREA... AND WOULD MAINLY POINT TOWARD AREAS EAST OF I-35 HAVING A
CHANCE OF SEEING SOMETHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO... PUT THE
HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY... THEY WOULD
CERTAINLY HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES AOA
2500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR AOA 35 KT... SO IT CERTAINLY BEARS
WATCHING AND WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN SHOULD THE FRONTAL TIMING
WIND UP SLOWER. WE WILL MAKE A RUN AT 90 ON SUNDAY DEPENDING UPON
HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE SEE OVER THE AREA... WHICH COULD BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE DEPENDING ON ANY ISSUES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
AND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. THE FAIRLY EARLY FROPA
DOESN/T APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
POTENTIAL... WITH MIXING ACTUALLY LOOKING TO INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS NEAR 90.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. GOOD MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD
ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE DRYING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
WITH A WAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO ND/MN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A BIT MID DECK OF STRATUS OR STRATO-CU MIGHT ACT
TO SUPPRESS SBCAPE...BUT THERE SHOULD BE DECENT RECOVERY IN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND SHOULD INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...STORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD POSE A HAIL THREAT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE SPC SLIGHT RISK SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
30-50% ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE IDEA OF AT
LEAST SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE WITH THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE AS THE
TRIGGER. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CYCLONICALLY CURVED LONG WAVE PATTERN LINGERS THROUGHOUT AT LEAST
MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE COOL EARLY START
TO THIS JULY...WHICH SITS BETWEEN 4 AND 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST FEW DAYS IN CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. HEIGHTS
BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THE FLOW STILL REMAINS W-NW AND THE
THERMAL RIDGE OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND HIGH PLAINS WILL
STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE EAST. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE CFS...05.12Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR CORRESPONDING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH INDICATES
A NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE...BUT OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS LOCALLY. IT DOES MEAN IF WE DONT REACH 90
TOMORROW...IT MAY BE SOME TIME BEFORE WE GET CLOSE TO THAT AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD BEING
VFR... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS WISCONSIN AND STORMS
PUSHING INTO WESTERN MN FROM THE DAKOTAS. STORMS HAVE INDEED
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NODAK AND FAR NORTHERN SODAK EARLY THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MUCH MORE ISOLATED THAN MODELS
HAVE BEEN INDICATING. NONETHELESS...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS
IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS WHICH COULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL STORMS TO
DEVELOP. RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH WHERE THEY
TAKE THESE STORMS...BUT THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TO BRING SOME INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN. THUS...INTRODUCED A TSRA PROB30 FOR THE MN
TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OF SLIGHTLY MORE
CONFIDENCE IS THE LOW CLOUD/FOG POTENTIAL OVER WI. STRATOCU FIELD
OVER MUCH OF THE STATE IS CURRENTLY MVFR AND INCREASING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BRING CIGS DOWN POSSIBLY TO IFR LEVELS AT EAU. WITH WINDS
STILL 5-10 KT...NOT THINKING FOG WILL BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE BUT
SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE.
KMSP...MAIN CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR TS LATE TONIGHT. SINCE
MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT THERE HAS BEEN A
TENDENCY FOR THE HI RES MODELS TO BRING IN SOME TS AFTER 09Z. FOR
NOW WENT WITH A PROB30...HOWEVER BY THE 03Z UPDATE IT WILL NEED TO
BE UPGRADED TO TEMPO OR VICINITY...OR DROPPED ALTOGETHER SINCE IT
WOULD BE WITHIN THE 9 HOUR PERIOD. THINK BY THE 03Z UPDATE
CONFIDENCE WILL BE INCREASING ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
314 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
MAIN CONCERN IS THE FOCUS OF SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS A SHRTWV AND MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.
MORNING SHORT TERM MODEL DEPICTION OF THE HRRR/HOPWRF/SPCWRF ALL
INDICATED SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE OF SD WHICH HAS
MATERIALIZED AS OF 7Z. MODELS DO DEPICT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE E/NE ALONG THE DEVELOPING WAA/MOISTURE CONFLUENT REGION
ACROSS WC/CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD/SCT
DUE TO THE LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND STRENGTH OF THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION. 03Z HOPWRF DOES SHOW HIGHER REFLECTIVITY MOVING
AS FAR EAST AS EC MN DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HRS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. HOWEVER...THIS IS LIKELY SPRINKLES AT BEST DUE TO THE
DRIER AIR ACROSS EASTERN MN THIS MORNING...AND THE TRAJECTORY OF THE
STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE N/NE OF MPX CWA. BY THE
AFTN...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN MN AS
OUR REGION BECOMES CAPPED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SFC FEATURES TO
FOCUS ONGOING CONVECTION. LATER THIS EVENING...THE FOCUS SHOULD BE
ALONG A POTENT SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE GFS/EC/GEM ALL CONSIDER THAT THERE SHOULD BE TWO AREAS
OF CONVECTION TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL LIKELY FOCUS ON THE LLJ IN
SD/NE AND MOVING INTO IOWA. WHILE THE SECOND FEATURE WILL LIKELY
FOCUS WITH AFTN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MN. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO CONTINUE ISOLD CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
AS BOTH K-INDEX VALUES AND A ELONGATED SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY IF MORE CLDS DEVELOP AND DO NOT
DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED. AM LEANING TOWARD MID 80S IN THE WEST TO
AROUND 80 IN THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS INSTIGATES
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. FAST ZONAL FLOW THEN
PREVAILS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL MEAN OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND AN INABILITY TO CONFIDENTLY ISOLATE
AN ENTIRELY DRY DAY.
THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF WITH HIGHS MEETING OR EXCEEDING CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS...WITH READINGS IN THE 80S EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. WHILE THERE COULD BE ISOLATED NOCTURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE DAY...DO EXPECT A MID LEVEL CAP TO BE BUILDING IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY /PER PROGGED 700MB TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND
+11C/ . HAVE INCLUDED A 20 POP FOR SAID ISOLATED ACTIVITY...BUT
THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING AS AN EXPECTED NOCTURNAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND SPILLS INTO CENTRAL MN ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL CAP. HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WI.
AS THE MCS DECAYS ON SUNDAY...DO EXPECT SUFFICIENT CLEARING TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO THREATEN THE 90 DEGREE MARK WILL BE FROM
WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAT INDEX VALUES NEARING 95 DEGREES. AS
THE TEMPERATURES WARM AND INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...MODELS INDICATE MLCAPES INCREASING TO OVER 4000 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES CIRCA 40 KTS. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO BE JUST SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE MPX
CWA...BUT WILL CERTAINLY BE SUSCEPTIBILE TO MINOR AREAL SHIFTS
DEPENDING ON HOW THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO UNFOLDS EARLY SUNDAY.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY PM APPEARS
TO BE FROM MANKATO AND OWATONNA TO EAU CLAIRE AND POINTS
SOUTH/EAST.
LESS FOCI FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE
FOUND THROUGH NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY/S SYSTEM. WHILE 20
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PEPPERING THE FORECAST
NEARLY EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK...MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY ON
SEVERAL OF THE DAYS...AND THOSE THAT DO RECEIVE RAIN WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE FAIRLY LIGHT ASSOCIATED PRECIP AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS HOVERING AROUND 80
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THIS TAF SET...BUT THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHC
THAT WESTERN SITES AROUND 12Z THIS MRNG COULD SEE MVFR CONDS DUE
TO INCOMING -SHRA. A WEAK MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVING EWD FROM THE
DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN NEAR DAYBREAK MAY SPAWN ISOLD TO SCTD -SHRA
THAT MAY AFFECT KRWF-KAXN-KSTC. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT...AND AM
ADVERTISING VFR -SHRA WITH THIS SET...BUT IF RAINFALL INTENSITIES
DEVELOP PER THE LAST COUPLE HRRR AND HOPWRF MODEL RUNS...THERE
COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDS. THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
WRN MN...THUS NOT IMPACTING KMSP-KRNH-KEAU SO HAVE LEFT THOSE
SITES DRY. VFR CONDS THEN PREVAIL THRU THE DAY...BUT ANOTHER APCHG
WAVE MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCTD -SHRA FRI EVE...AGAIN OVER
MAINLY WRN TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS LIKELY IN THE MID- TO
UPR- LEVELS...GRADUALLY INCRG IN COVERAGE. WINDS TO EVENTUALLY
BECOME SLY AND BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY BY THIS AFTN.
KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT THIS FCST PKG. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MIDLVL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THAN FCST IN THE PREVIOUS FCST SET DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY STRONG MIDLVL WAVE APCHG OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
ADVERTISED BKN COVERAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WITH MULTIPLE
LAYERS XPCTD AFTER DAYBREAK BUT WITH UPR LVL CEILINGS. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY LOWER THRU THE DAY BUT NO PRECIP IS XPCTD DURG THIS SET.
LGT/VRBL WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SLY BY THE MORNING PUSH THEN INCRS
IN SPEED THRU THE AFTN HRS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1051 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 736 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
Watching two areas this evening for convective trends. The first
is the tail end of the departing MCV in north central Illinios.
Boundary layer CAPE is on the increase from the southwest and
could see a few storms skirt west central Illinois before
midnight. The second area is near Kansas City, where majority of
short term model guidance develops thunderstorms this evening.
Some discrepancy as to which direction they move after they
develop with the RAP moving them slowly east toward Central
Missouri and the HRRR dropping them ever so slowly south. Have
maintained some slight chance POPs for the northern CWA the next
few hours as the MCV moves further away. Then have POPs slowly
increase across central Missouri after midnight as we closely
watch trends of KC convection.
CVKING
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
(Tonight)
Complex of thunderstorms that persisted into early afternoon have
finally began to diminish as they moved into limited instability to
the east and little forcing to the south. This evening, the RAP and
localWRF shows a rapid increase of low level moisture convergence
and MUCAPE across the northern CWA which supports the going PoPS
that we already have going in the forecast. Going temps fit in well
with new agreeable MOS temps. Southern and eastern CWA are still in
under the influence of a retreating ridge.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms going over the the area on
Sunday, with the best chances going during the morning hours over
the northeastern half of the CWA. This is where the strongest low
level moisture convergence coincides with the weak ascent that a
shortwave trough will provide as it passes through the area. This
is supported by various simulated reflectivity of the convective
allowing WRFs. The latest run of the GFS appears too deep with the
trough because of convective feedback. Thunderstorms are also
expected to develop over Iowa and northern Illinois later in the day
and early evening in a very unstable airmass along a southeastward
moving cold front. Will continue the chance of shower and
thunderstorms over the area as these storms will be gradually
diminishing in intensity through the night as they move into the
CWA.
By Monday and Tuesday this front will have become nearly stationary
over the area under west northwesterly flow. Will keep high chance
or low likely chances given the high CAPEs and the weak vort
maxes moving the upper flow.
It still looks like highs will reach the mid 90s over the central
part of the CWA including the St. Louis metro area on Monday
afternoon. Combine this with expected dewpoints in the lower 70s
and heat index readings will top out around 100.
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Both the GFS and ECMWF show the cold front pushing into the Mid
South by Wednesday as the mean trough moves to the east of the
area. However differences between the two models begin to show up
by Friday as the ECMWF is much more aggressive in moving a deeper
trough across the northern CONUS than the GFS. Consequently, the
ECMWF brings a cold front across the area on Saturday while the GFS
instead is building a ridge across the area. The ECMWF does not
appear to have good continuity with this feature, so will not go
along with this solution. Instead, will keep with a chance of
thunderstorms over the southern CWA on Wednesday which will be the
area in closest proximity to the front. Will also keep going chance
of thunderstorms over the area on Friday as both models continue to
indicate that the front will move through the CWA as a warm front.
850mb temperatures of +15C support below normal temperatures in the
mid 80s for Wednesday and Thursday before temperatures climb back
closer to normal by next Saturday.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
Warm front remains stalled over northern portions of forecast
area. So dealing with strato cu north of front at KUIN. Cigs
should remain low end vfr and not dip down to ifr as front slowly
lifts north. Southeast winds at KUIN to veer to the south when
front slides through. Otherwise, rest of taf sites to remain vfr
with mid and high clouds. As for winds, to persist from the south,
then veer to the southwest by mid morning and pickup a bit ahead
of next weather system. Some concern that activity that is firing
up over west central MO could clip central MO, but confidence is
low so left out mention at KCOU. Later today could see scattered
activity, but once again confidence is low so kept tafs dry for
now.
Specifics for KSTL:
Metro area to remain vfr with mid and high clouds. As for winds,
to persist from the south, then veer to the southwest by 15z Sunday
and pickup a bit ahead of next weather system. Later today could
see scattered activity, but confidence is low so kept taf dry for
now.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
747 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 736 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
Watching two areas this evening for convective trends. The first
is the tail end of the departing MCV in north central Illinios.
Boundary layer CAPE is on the increase from the southwest and
could see a few storms skirt west central Illinois before
midnight. The second area is near Kansas City, where majority of
short term model guidance develops thunderstorms this evening.
Some discrepancy as to which direction they move after they
develop with the RAP moving them slowly east toward Central
Missouri and the HRRR dropping them ever so slowly south. Have
maintained some slight chance POPs for the northern CWA the next
few hours as the MCV moves further away. Then have POPs slowly
increase across central Missouri after midnight as we closely
watch trends of KC convection.
CVKING
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
(Tonight)
Complex of thunderstorms that persisted into early afternoon have
finally began to diminish as they moved into limited instability to
the east and little forcing to the south. This evening, the RAP and
localWRF shows a rapid increase of low level moisture convergence
and MUCAPE across the northern CWA which supports the going PoPS
that we already have going in the forecast. Going temps fit in well
with new agreeable MOS temps. Southern and eastern CWA are still in
under the influence of a retreating ridge.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms going over the the area on
Sunday, with the best chances going during the morning hours over
the northeastern half of the CWA. This is where the strongest low
level moisture convergence coincides with the weak ascent that a
shortwave trough will provide as it passes through the area. This
is supported by various simulated reflectivity of the convective
allowing WRFs. The latest run of the GFS appears too deep with the
trough because of convective feedback. Thunderstorms are also
expected to develop over Iowa and northern Illinois later in the day
and early evening in a very unstable airmass along a southeastward
moving cold front. Will continue the chance of shower and
thunderstorms over the area as these storms will be gradually
diminishing in intensity through the night as they move into the
CWA.
By Monday and Tuesday this front will have become nearly stationary
over the area under west northwesterly flow. Will keep high chance
or low likely chances given the high CAPEs and the weak vort
maxes moving the upper flow.
It still looks like highs will reach the mid 90s over the central
part of the CWA including the St. Louis metro area on Monday
afternoon. Combine this with expected dewpoints in the lower 70s
and heat index readings will top out around 100.
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Both the GFS and ECMWF show the cold front pushing into the Mid
South by Wednesday as the mean trough moves to the east of the
area. However differences between the two models begin to show up
by Friday as the ECMWF is much more aggressive in moving a deeper
trough across the northern CONUS than the GFS. Consequently, the
ECMWF brings a cold front across the area on Saturday while the GFS
instead is building a ridge across the area. The ECMWF does not
appear to have good continuity with this feature, so will not go
along with this solution. Instead, will keep with a chance of
thunderstorms over the southern CWA on Wednesday which will be the
area in closest proximity to the front. Will also keep going chance
of thunderstorms over the area on Friday as both models continue to
indicate that the front will move through the CWA as a warm front.
850mb temperatures of +15C support below normal temperatures in the
mid 80s for Wednesday and Thursday before temperatures climb back
closer to normal by next Saturday.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
MCV to continue moving east away from taf sites, so will see dry
vfr conditions through tonight. Could still see some activity fire
up tomorrow, but coverage and timing hard to pin down so will keep
tafs dry. Winds to persist from the south overnight, then veer a
little to the southwest and pickup a bit by mid morning on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
MCV to continue moving east away from metro area, so will see dry vfr
conditions through tonight. Could still see some activity fire up
tomorrow, but coverage and timing hard to pin down so will keep
taf dry. Winds to persist from the south overnight, then veer a
little to the southwest and pickup a bit by 15z Sunday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
645 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
...Updated for Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
For today and tonight, the main forecast challenge will be whether
or not convection can redevelop late this afternoon along remnant
outflow boundaries/temperature gradients left over from morning
convection. A decent shortwave trough will drop southward through
the region tonight and could help spark this convection, but stable,
cool air over most of the CWA may prevent thunderstorm development
in spite of that wave. High-resolution models continue to initiate
convection around 22-23z, but also continue to shift initiation west
of the CWA where clear skies and breezy southwest winds have allowed
temperatures to warm into the 90s. This seems like the most likely
scenario given current conditions and cloud cover, so have trended
PoPs downward this evening and tonight but still allowed for the
possibility of precipitation with the shortwave trough. If storms
do initiate over the forecast area tonight, the lack of upper-level
flow and thus any deep layer shear will keep severe weather chances
low.
Hot temperatures in the mid 90s and the recent return to upper 60s
dewpoints will result in 100-103 degree heat indices both tomorrow
and Monday across most of the region. Does not look like a heat
advisory is needed at this time, but will be something to watch with
future forecast issuances.
Next decent chance for thunderstorms will come Monday night into
early Tuesday morning as a shortwave trough kicks a cold front
through the region. Models have been fairly consistent with this
feature, so continued to raise precipitation chances across the
northern half of the CWA. Precipitation chances drop off south of
I-70 as the shortwave trough exits the region to the east and
forcing along the cold front diminishes on Tuesday, but cold pool
interactions or any change in the track of the wave could change
this slightly. Slightly cooler temperatures and drier conditions
should follow behind the front, however; southerly surface flow,
thunderstorm chances, warmer temperatures should return by late
Thursday or Friday through the end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
For the 00Z TAFS...Convection is main concern this evening as there
is a strong temperature gradient and weak boundary in the region from
earlier storms. Surface temperature in Manhattan Kansas is currently
93F while it is only 83F at KMCI. There is ample moisture available
and some moderate instability as well. The models are suggesting that
the convection will rapidly evolve over the next few hours over
extreme eastern portions of kansas and Nebraska and move south and
east over the terminals through around 07Z. There still is a decent
cap around 5K ft according to the RUC and visible satellite confirms.
The BUFR soundings show this eroding within the next hour or two
which will increase the chances for convection to evolve. Not
confident in the cap eroding since the daylight is also waning.
Expect storms will lose their surfaced-based instability with time.
Given the mid level lapse rates are not impressive and all the
above...the terminals should not fall below around 3SM and bases
around 3K ft in storms that do form and move over the terminals tonight.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Adolphson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
636 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
(Tonight)
Complex of thunderstorms that persisted into early afternoon have
finally began to diminish as they moved into limited instability to
the east and little forcing to the south. This evening, the RAP and
localWRF shows a rapid increase of low level moisture convergence
and MUCAPE across the northern CWA which supports the going PoPS
that we already have going in the forecast. Going temps fit in well
with new agreeable MOS temps. Southern and eastern CWA are still in
under the influence of a retreating ridge.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms going over the the area on
Sunday, with the best chances going during the morning hours over
the northeastern half of the CWA. This is where the strongest low
level moisture convergence coincides with the weak ascent that a
shortwave trough will provide as it passes through the area. This
is supported by various simulated reflectivity of the convective
allowing WRFs. The latest run of the GFS appears too deep with the
trough because of convective feedback. Thunderstorms are also
expected to develop over Iowa and northern Illinois later in the day
and early evening in a very unstable airmass along a southeastward
moving cold front. Will continue the chance of shower and
thunderstorms over the area as these storms will be gradually
diminishing in intensity through the night as they move into the
CWA.
By Monday and Tuesday this front will have become nearly stationary
over the area under west northwesterly flow. Will keep high chance
or low likely chances given the high CAPEs and the weak vort
maxes moving the upper flow.
It still looks like highs will reach the mid 90s over the central
part of the CWA including the St. Louis metro area on Monday
afternoon. Combine this with expected dewpoints in the lower 70s
and heat index readings will top out around 100.
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Both the GFS and ECMWF show the cold front pushing into the Mid
South by Wednesday as the mean trough moves to the east of the
area. However differences between the two models begin to show up
by Friday as the ECMWF is much more aggressive in moving a deeper
trough across the northern CONUS than the GFS. Consequently, the
ECMWF brings a cold front across the area on Saturday while the GFS
instead is building a ridge across the area. The ECMWF does not
appear to have good continuity with this feature, so will not go
along with this solution. Instead, will keep with a chance of
thunderstorms over the southern CWA on Wednesday which will be the
area in closest proximity to the front. Will also keep going chance
of thunderstorms over the area on Friday as both models continue to
indicate that the front will move through the CWA as a warm front.
850mb temperatures of +15C support below normal temperatures in the
mid 80s for Wednesday and Thursday before temperatures climb back
closer to normal by next Saturday.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
MCV to continue moving east away from taf sites, so will see dry
vfr conditions through tonight. Could still see some activity fire
up tomorrow, but coverage and timing hard to pin down so will keep
tafs dry. Winds to persist from the south overnight, then veer a
little to the southwest and pickup a bit by mid morning on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
MCV to continue moving east away from metro area, so will see dry vfr
conditions through tonight. Could still see some activity fire up
tomorrow, but coverage and timing hard to pin down so will keep
taf dry. Winds to persist from the south overnight, then veer a
little to the southwest and pickup a bit by 15z Sunday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
633 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight into Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
Currently, large expanse of high level clouds have enveloped much
of the outlook area. This is blow off from a convective complex
to our north. Over the past few hours, this area of showers and
storms has rapidly decayed, with just a few lingering showers near
northern portions of Miller/Maries counties. This activity will
dissipate over the next hour or so, with additional development
expected later. Temperatures have been affected, somewhat, by the
high cloud coverage, with most locations in the upper 70s to lower
80s. The only exception is across extreme southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri where mid/upper 80s are a bit more common.
Anticipate that scattered TSRA will redevelop to the northwest of
the CWA later today in line with the HRRR and NAM12...however
models handling how this will propagate inconsistently. Given
orientation of the moisture transport/low level Theta E would
anticipate activity to build soutwestward into the night...then
take on an easterly component toward morning as the relatively
weak low level jet veers east.
Questions for convection then on Sunday more of a question.
Should be plenty of instability and even a bit of support from a
dampening short wave. However rain may be hard to come by unless
the overnight convection is able to generate an outflow boundary.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
Warming trend will continue into Monday with areas over the west
witnessing the highest heat indices of the season before heights
start to fall and a wavy weak front arrives on Tuesday. Models have
been consistent with convective development along the front Tuesday
into early Wednesday as the front slowly descends into Arkansas.
Questions continue as to how far south the front makes it into
Arkansas and scattered storms may then continue along the Arkansas
border through the end of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
The primary weather impact to aviation over the next 24 hours
will be a chance for convection. The first round of overnight
convection is forecast to move into the region from the west
around sunrise, potentially impacting the Joplin aerodrome around
sunrise. Another round of isolated thunderstorms is expected to
form during the period of afternoon heating over southwestern
Missouri. Outside of thunderstorms, winds are expected to be
light and southerly through the period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gagan/Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Kardell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
910 AM MDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FAIRLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING BUT CHINOOK-TYPE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE PARKED OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. CLOUDS SHOULD DRIFT
MORE SOUTH THAN EAST TODAY AS DRIER AIR IS HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES FROM WA.
LOWERED POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS BEST CHANCE FOR ANYTHING
WOULD MOVE OFF THE SNOWY MTNS INTO PETROLEUM COUNTY. JAMBA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A WEATHER
PATTERN IN SOMEWHAT OF A STATE OF CHANGE FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REGION. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WHICH WAS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS BEEN ALL BUT FLATTENED AND SHIFTED
EASTWARD...LEAVING A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MONTANA WITH
POSSIBLE A SLIGHT WEAK RIDGING EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH STILL IN
PLACE.
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THIS UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL HOLD NEARLY CONSTANT WITH MAYBE A FEW
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SETTING OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT...AND NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE REGION KEEPING THE
DAY MOSTLY SUNNY WITH RIDGING INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
IT SEEMS LATELY THAT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TRYING TO SQUEEZE AS
MUCH PRECIPITATION OUT AS POSSIBLE...BUT OFTEN ARE FAR OVER-
ESTIMATING THESE STORMS. THE HRRR IS MOST GUILTY OF THIS RECENTLY.
WITH THAT IN MIND...FELT I COULD ONLY GIVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
WHERE I COULD SEE SOME SEMBLANCE OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND CUT BACK
AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE WHERE CONSENSUS SHOWED NO PRECIP. EXPECTING ANY
DEVELOPING STORMS TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD AS THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES AMPLIFIES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDING ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER BEFORE DIVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
EASTERN TROF WITH UPPER FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVES AND A LITTLE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY...SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MIDWEEK WITH HOT DRY AIR
SPREADING NORTH FROM THE GREAT BASIN. UPPER LOW SPINS INTO WESTERN
CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AGAIN. GFS AND EC
BOTH PUSH WEAK FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA EARLY NEXT FRIDAY BUT
KEEP THE AIRMASS HOT AND DRY. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR. A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO WEST BY AFTERNOON. A FEW HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT IN THE
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND
PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
321 AM MDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A WEATHER
PATTERN IN SOMEWHAT OF A STATE OF CHANGE FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REGION. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WHICH WAS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS BEEN ALL BUT FLATTENED AND SHIFTED
EASTWARD...LEAVING A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MONTANA WITH
POSSIBLE A SLIGHT WEAK RIDGING EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH STILL IN
PLACE.
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THIS UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL HOLD NEARLY CONSTANT WITH MAYBE A FEW
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SETTING OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT...AND NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE REGION KEEPING THE
DAY MOSTLY SUNNY WITH RIDGING INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
IT SEEMS LATELY THAT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TRYING TO SQUEEZE AS
MUCH PRECIPITATION OUT AS POSSIBLE...BUT OFTEN ARE FAR OVER-
ESTIMATING THESE STORMS. THE HRRR IS MOST GUILTY OF THIS RECENTLY.
WITH THAT IN MIND...FELT I COULD ONLY GIVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
WHERE I COULD SEE SOME SEMBLANCE OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND CUT BACK
AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE WHERE CONSENSUS SHOWED NO PRECIP. EXPECTING ANY
DEVELOPING STORMS TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD AS THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES AMPLIFIES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDING ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER BEFORE DIVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
EASTERN TROF WITH UPPER FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVES AND A LITTLE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY...SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MIDWEEK WITH HOT DRY AIR
SPREADING NORTH FROM THE GREAT BASIN. UPPER LOW SPINS INTO WESTERN
CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AGAIN. GFS AND EC
BOTH PUSH WEAK FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA EARLY NEXT FRIDAY BUT
KEEP THE AIR MASS HOT AND DRY. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR. A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO WEST BY AFTERNOON. A FEW HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT IN THE
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND
PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
642 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
TEMPERATURES.
CLOUDS HAVE ABOUT MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
A FEW THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE
AND WHAT HAPPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE NAM...THE RAP AND THE HRRR
PRODUCE A LITTLE QPF/THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. WITH THE SPRINKLES THAT FORMED EARLIER BELIEVE THAT A 20
PERCENT CHANCE COULD BE A GOOD IDEA IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. NOT
EXPECTING THERE TO BE MUCH BUT A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP.
A SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. EVEN WITH THE
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
WELL INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES DURING THE DAY. AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. HAVE KEPT THE SMALL POPS IN FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE MODELS HAVE
DIFFERENCES ON THIS AS WELL. MANY OF THE MODELS ARE DRY...BUT A FEW
SHOW SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
PATTERN: IT IS LOOKING DECIDEDLY MORE SUMMERLIKE. OVERALL THE MEAN
LONGWAVE FLOW WILL FEATURE A WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WITH
SEASONABLE CHANGES IN AMPLITUDE. ONE THING IS CLEAR...WE HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO A CONSIDERABLY DRIER PATTERN. THE PATTERN THAT
BROUGHT THE VERY WET JUNE IS NO LONGER WITH US...AND ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS FCST OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL USA THRU MID-MONTH THREATEN SOME
PERSISTENCE TO THIS DRYNESS.
THE ONLY DECENT PROSPECT FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS
MON NIGHT AND EVEN THEN NOT ALL AREAS WILL GET IT.
EXPECT IRRIGATION WILL BE NECESSARY VERY SOON.
ONE THING NOTED BY THE WPC /WX PREDICTION CTR AT NWSHQ/ IS TYPHOON
NEOGURI FCST TO RECURVE IN THE WRN PACIFIC. ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND ABSORPTION INTO THE WESTERLIES COULD RESULT IN A
PATTERN RE-ADJUSTMENT AROUND MID-MONTH.
ALOFT: THE SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL HIGH HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED AND
WILL BE OVER THE SW USA THRU MID-WEEK. STORMINESS OVER THE GULF OF
AK WILL FORCE A TEMPORARY AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE INTO WRN
CANADA. THIS WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND SEND A SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO
THE CNTRL/ERN USA THIS WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED TROF WILL SLIDE THRU MON
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY CYCLONIC NW FLOW TUE-WED. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
MOVE THRU THU AHEAD OF A TROF MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC. WHILE THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THIS TROF WILL ACTUALLY STAY N OF THE BORDER...
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO EXPAND ACROSS
THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...AM NOT BUYING IT. THE PAST 2 EC/GEM/GFS
CYCLES HAVE AMPLIFY THE PATTERN WITH THE ERN USA TROF BEING CARVED
OUT AGAIN. THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE CONTROL RUN SHOWS THIS VERY NICELY
AND THIS IDEA FITS THE PATTERN.
SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT IS ADVANCING THRU THE FCST AREA SUN
AFTERNOON WILL STALL OVER NRN KS MON...AWAITING A STRONGER SECOND
FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE THRU MON NIGHT. THIS SECOND PUSH WILL FORCE
THE COMPOSITE FRONT DEEPER INTO THE SRN PLAINS. COMFORTABLE HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN TUE-WED WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING THU AS THE HIGH
HEADS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW PRES WILL CROSS WRN CANADA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AND BEGIN DRAWING THE FRONT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT
THU. FRI IT HEATS BACK UP IN THE WARM SECTOR...THEN A COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI NIGHT OR SAT.
HAZARDS: AN ISOLATED PROBABLY NON-SVR TSTM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE MON NIGHT WITH LEGIT SVR
POTENTIAL. BEYOND THAT...ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS UNORGANIZED AND
IS LOW CONFIDENCE.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
UNCERTAINTY IS WAY ABOVE AVERAGE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. AM NOT
IMPRESSED WITH THE TSTM POTENTIAL ALONG THIS FRONT. WHILE DEWPOINTS
ARE IMPRESSIVE NOW...TOMORROW`S HEAT WILL MIX OUT THESE HIGH DWPTS
WITH NO REPLENISHMENT. 12Z SOUNDINGS AROUND THE REGION THIS AM SHOW
THERE ARE REALLY NO GOOD/DEEP BANDS OF MOISTURE. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE CAP.
09Z SREF DOES SUGGEST PORTION OF THE NARROW RIBBON OF 10-12C 850 MB
DWPTS ALONG THE FRONT WILL CIRCULATE ANTICYCLONICALLY BACK INTO THE
REGION LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WAITING TO INTERCEPT THE NEXT
FRONT.
BOTTOM LINE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY MOST OF THE TIME SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. THIS FCST WOULD BETTER BE VIEWED FROM THE STANDPOINT
THAT THERE IS AN 80% CHANCE THAT TSTMS WILL NOT FORM. "IF" AN
ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO MANAGES TO DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK /10-15 KTS/. THIS SUGGESTS AT BEST NICKEL SIZE HAIL. LCL
HEIGHTS WILL BE NEAR 10K FT WHICH WOULD THREATEN WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH.
MON NIGHT: A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND
AND THE LLJ IN ADVANCE. CONSIDERABLE CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD HAVE 2000-
2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. WE DO NEED TO
WATCH POTENTIAL FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT FOR SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...
BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OF A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...EMBEDDED BOWS AND LEWP`S WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
WE HAVE NOTED THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WX AND WE ARE IN AGREEMENT.
THIS FCSTR CONTS TO SEE TUE-THU COOLER THAN WHAT MEX MOS AND EVEN
THE DAYS 4-7 INITIALIZATION HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. THIS GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY RELUCTANT TO LOWER TEMPS. BASED ON ENSEMBLE TEMP ANOMALIES
...HAVE TRENDED THE FCST HIGHS CLOSER TO THE EC/GEM 2M TEMPS WHICH
HAVE HAD A SIZABLE COOLDOWN FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
TUE: CLEARING AS MON NIGHT`S MCS DEPARTS THE REGION. HIGHS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED TO 77-86F...A LITTLE BELOW THE 4 AM GID FCST. THIS IS
ROUGHLY 8F COOLER THAN NORMAL. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF WINDY
CONDITIONS BEFORE NOON.
WED: VERY NICE. TEMPS BEGIN CREEPING UP A LITTLE...BUT STILL 4-5F
COOLER THAN NORMAL.
WED NIGHT: GOOD LLJ DEVELOPMENT WITH A BURST OF THETA-E ADVECTION.
COULD SEE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS FORM WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
THU: QUESTIONABLE. IT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY WARM FRONTAL
CLOUDINESS DEPARTS ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING EFFECTS FROM POSSIBLE
MCS DEVELOPMENT WED NIGHT. THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE A SUBSTANTIAL
TEMP GRADIENT FROM SW-NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WHILE AREAS FROM ORD-
GREELEY-FULLERTON MAY BE JAMMED IN THE 70S...AREAS FROM BEAVER CITY-
OSBORNE KS MAY BE IN THE UPPER 90S.
FRI: ANOTHER THRUST OF BIG TIME HEAT IN THE WARM SECTOR. BELIEVE
ODDS FAVOR 95-105F. LOOK FOR THIS TIME FRAME TO TREND HIGHER.
FRI NIGHT OR SAT: POSSIBLY A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A FEW MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO EXPECT TO SEE A MINOR WIND SHIFT FROM WEST
TO NORTHERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING WEAK
COLD FRONT...BUT WINDS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AT 12KTS OR LESS...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1218 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
SATELLITE AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING THE AREA UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SET UP BETWEEN A TROUGH CONTINUING TO
PUSH TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE
ROCKIES FROM HIGH PRESSURE ROUGHLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT
THE SFC...NO NOTABLE CHANGES...THE CWA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING THOSE SRLY WINDS IN PLACE.
STARTING TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WRN
EDGE OF THE CWA...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND INCREASED LIFT VIA A 30-
40ISH KT LLJ EDGES FURTHER EAST. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWING MUCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THAT WRN EDGE...BUT SHEAR IS FAIRLY LOW. EVEN
NOW MODELS STILL VARY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
KEEP THE POPS GOING ACROSS THE CWA AND SEE HOW THINGS TREND OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
STORMS.
WILL CONTINUE THE POPS INTO THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...BUT THINKING
IS THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. SOME MODELS HINT AT
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH
WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT AT THIS POINT UNLESS OTHER MODELS START
TRENDING THAT WAIT NOT BUYING INTO THAT SOLUTION...AND KEPT THE
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS DRY. BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT
NEED TO MONITOR...AND UPDATE IF IT DOES INDEED HAPPEN/AFFECT MAINLY
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA
TIGHTENS AND MIXING POTENTIAL INCREASES...SUSTAINED SPEEDS THIS
AFTERNOON OF 20-25 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG WITH GUSTS OVER
30 MPH. EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TURNS TO THE
WEST...AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG THAT SFC TROUGH AXIS...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE
PLAINS. THINK THE NAM AND SREF ARE TOO FAST WITH BRINGING THE
ACTIVITY EAST...ALREADY AFFECTING THE WRN CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE RAP/4KM WRF...SHOW THE BETTER
CHANCES COMING POST 00Z. TRIMMED BACK THE POPS A BIT FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING...LATEST RAP SHOWING EVEN AT 01Z THE
BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY IS W/NW OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY THINGS CAN
TREND DIFFERENTLY WITH UPCOMING MODEL RUNS...ANOTHER THING FOR THE
DAY SHIFT TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON...ESP WITH FOLKS WONDERING
WHETHER THEY WILL BE ABLE TO SEE THEIR FIREWORKS SHOWS. WHILE POPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS...STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE...WHICH MAY BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POPS. THAT
UNCERTAINTY EVEN CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES PUSHING EAST BUT
MODELS VARY WITH WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND BETTER CONVERGENCE
WILL END UP...WITH SOME SHOWING ACTIVITY PICKING BACK UP OVER OUR
ERN COUNTIES. PLENTY OF DETAINS YET TO IRON OUT...EVEN THIS CLOSE
TO THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THINKING AS FAR AS STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER GOES HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH...AS THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO KEEPS THAT POTENTIAL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS STILL LOOKING TO
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER STORY OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS A
PROLONGED STRETCH OF NEAR-NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL SUMMER
HEAT...MEANING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MOST DAYS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO RANGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
MID-80S AND LOW-90S...WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXCEEDING THIS
RANGE ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. FOR THOSE WHO ENJOYED THESE PAST FEW
BELOW NORMAL DAYS...THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WILL BE A RUDE
REMINDER THAT IT IS IN FACT JULY. THE INCREASING TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY AS
WELL...WITH DEWS FORECAST TO AVERAGE AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 60S
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA MOST FAVORED TO SEE
DEWPOINTS OCCASIONALLY REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED THE MORE-
OPPRESSIVE 70 DEGREE MARK. AS FOR BOTH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES...SUNDAY IS CURRENTLY SLATED TO BE THE OVERALL-
HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITHIN THE CWA...AND MADE
RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ACTUAL TEMPS
AIMED FROM THE MID-90S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 90S-100
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST KEEPS ALL AREAS AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105+ DEGREES...THERE IS A
DECENT PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA NOW FORECAST TO OBSERVE VALUES IN THE
100-104 RANGE...SO HAVE KEPT THIS NEAR-ADVISORY HEAT INDEX
FORECAST IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).
FORTUNATELY...SUNDAY IS THE ONLY DAY OUT OF THESE 6 FORECAST TO
BREACH THE 100+ HEAT INDEX MARK...THANKS TO A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TEMPERING THE HEAT
A BIT...AND ALSO ALLOWING SURFACE BREEZES TO PREVAIL FROM MORE OF
AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK INSTEAD OF
THE PREVALENT SOUTHERLY DIRECTION EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
SWITCHING GEARS TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...FOR BETTER OR
WORSE THESE 6 DAYS SIGNAL A GENERAL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
PATTERN OF 1-2 WEEKS AGO...MEANING THAT THERE ARE A MULTITUDE OF
FAIRLY LOW 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE MAJORITY OF 12-HOUR
PERIODS...BUT VERY FEW OF THESE PERIODS WILL PROBABLY END UP
HAVING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SO BE SURE TO KEEP THESE MYRIAD CHANCES
ESPECIALLY BEYOND THE FIRST FEW DAYS IN PERSPECTIVE. THAT BEING
SAID...THE ONLY PERIOD THAT CURRENTLY FEATURES MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER 30-40 POPS IS MONDAY NIGHT...SO IF
TRENDS HOLD THIS MAY END UP BEING THE OVERALL-BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES...OBVIOUSLY GIVEN THE RETURN OF TYPICAL SUMMER
HEAT/HUMIDITY THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AROUND MOST OF
THE TIME...BUT ALSO TYPICAL OF SUMMER THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME
WILL PROBABLY HAVE NO BETTER THAN MODEST DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR
AND/OR CAPPING ISSUES. AS A RESULT...THERE IS FAR TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO SAY MUCH ABOUT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK BEYOND
THIS WEEKEND...BUT PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 3 OUTLOOK
THERE COULD BE AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT FOR LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND PROBABLY MORE-SO
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO NEB ZONES FROM
THE NORTH. ALSO...BACKING UP TO RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY
MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG STORMS
LINGERING IN EASTERN ZONES FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY
DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE...BUT ODDS ARE THAT ANY
LEGITIMATE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY THEN.
GETTING MORE INTO METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING THINGS IN
24-HOUR BLOCKS...
SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS REMAINS
THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON CENTRAL PLAINS WEATHER...BUT THE DAYTIME
HOURS START OUT WITH THE LINGERING DEPARTURE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...JUST CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME STORMS LINGERING OVER EASTERN ZONES INTO THE MID-MORNING
HOURS...AND THUS LARGELY MAINTAINED LOW POPS SATURDAY MORNING FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MID-UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF A BIT
AND TURNS THE FLOW MORE NORTHERLY ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH A
LACK OF DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. AS A RESULT...DESPITE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE CONSENSUS OF MOST MODELS AND KEEP SATURDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT
VOID OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POPS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH COULD AT
LEAST SEE SOME ACTIVITY COME VERY CLOSE TO AFFECTING THE CWA. HIGH
TEMPS AIMED FROM LOW 90S NORTHEAST TO MID-UPPER 90S
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE ENHANCED HEAT ASPECT AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE POSSIBLE STRONG-SEVERE STORM RISK LATE IN THE DAY
AND LIKELY MORE SO INTO THE EVENING HAS ALREADY BEEN COVERED
ABOVE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED A BIT BY THE
PASSAGE OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
GENERALLY ALONG THE CANADA BORDER. THIS IN TURN ALLOWS A WEAK BUT
DECENTLY-DEFINED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...POSSIBLY PROMOTING VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT
PRIMARILY WITHIN THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY HERE THOUGH.
MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...A BIT STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE UPPER JET CORE SINKS FARTHER
SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAINTAINED TOKEN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
DAY BUT AS ALREADY MENTIONED THE NIGHT PERIOD FEATURES THE
OVERALL-HIGHEST POPS OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD IN THE 30-40 RANGE AS
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE FAIRLY INSISTENT IN SPARKING POTENTIALLY
VIGOROUS AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPS TEMPER A BIT
FROM SUNDAY...GENERALLY AIMED UPPER 80S NORTH-MID 90S SOUTH.
TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THESE 24 HOURS REMAIN BLANKETED
WITH MAINLY TOKEN 20 POPS AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS ALONG THE
POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT ACTIVE INTERFACE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
DIRECTED ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS RIDGE AND
A VIGOROUS SOUTHEAST CANADA TROUGH. HIGH TEMPS MID 80S NORTH-LOW
90S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOST CONVECTION IN THE REGION COULD
FOCUS SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF THE CWA...BLANKET COVERAGE OF 20 POPS
CONTINUES DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. HIGH TEMPS MID 80S NORTH-LOW 90S
SOUTH.
THURSDAY DAYTIME...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT POPS CONTINUE AREA-WIDE FOR
NOW...THERE ARE VERY EARLY INDICATIONS THAT FLOW ALOFT MAY TURN
MORE ZONAL AND ALLOW WARMER ALOFT TO PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST...POTENTIALLY USHERING IN AT LEAST A BRIEF STRETCH THAT MAY
NOT EVEN BE WORTHY OF 20 POPS IN LATER FORECASTS. HIGH TEMPS VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED MID 80S NORTH-LOW 90S SOUTH...VERY SIMILAR TO
TUES-WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LATER THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL LET UP A LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
628 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
SATELLITE AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING THE AREA UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SET UP BETWEEN A TROUGH CONTINUING TO
PUSH TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE
ROCKIES FROM HIGH PRESSURE ROUGHLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT
THE SFC...NO NOTABLE CHANGES...THE CWA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING THOSE SRLY WINDS IN PLACE.
STARTING TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WRN
EDGE OF THE CWA...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND INCREASED LIFT VIA A 30-
40ISH KT LLJ EDGES FURTHER EAST. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWING MUCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THAT WRN EDGE...BUT SHEAR IS FAIRLY LOW. EVEN
NOW MODELS STILL VARY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
KEEP THE POPS GOING ACROSS THE CWA AND SEE HOW THINGS TREND OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
STORMS.
WILL CONTINUE THE POPS INTO THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...BUT THINKING
IS THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. SOME MODELS HINT AT
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH
WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT AT THIS POINT UNLESS OTHER MODELS START
TRENDING THAT WAIT NOT BUYING INTO THAT SOLUTION...AND KEPT THE
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS DRY. BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT
NEED TO MONITOR...AND UPDATE IF IT DOES INDEED HAPPEN/AFFECT MAINLY
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA
TIGHTENS AND MIXING POTENTIAL INCREASES...SUSTAINED SPEEDS THIS
AFTERNOON OF 20-25 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG WITH GUSTS OVER
30 MPH. EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TURNS TO THE
WEST...AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG THAT SFC TROUGH AXIS...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE
PLAINS. THINK THE NAM AND SREF ARE TOO FAST WITH BRINGING THE
ACTIVITY EAST...ALREADY AFFECTING THE WRN CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE RAP/4KM WRF...SHOW THE BETTER
CHANCES COMING POST 00Z. TRIMMED BACK THE POPS A BIT FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING...LATEST RAP SHOWING EVEN AT 01Z THE
BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY IS W/NW OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY THINGS CAN
TREND DIFFERENTLY WITH UPCOMING MODEL RUNS...ANOTHER THING FOR THE
DAY SHIFT TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON...ESP WITH FOLKS WONDERING
WHETHER THEY WILL BE ABLE TO SEE THEIR FIREWORKS SHOWS. WHILE POPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS...STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE...WHICH MAY BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POPS. THAT
UNCERTAINTY EVEN CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES PUSHING EAST BUT
MODELS VARY WITH WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND BETTER CONVERGENCE
WILL END UP...WITH SOME SHOWING ACTIVITY PICKING BACK UP OVER OUR
ERN COUNTIES. PLENTY OF DETAINS YET TO IRON OUT...EVEN THIS CLOSE
TO THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THINKING AS FAR AS STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER GOES HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH...AS THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO KEEPS THAT POTENTIAL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS STILL LOOKING TO
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER STORY OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS A
PROLONGED STRETCH OF NEAR-NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL SUMMER
HEAT...MEANING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MOST DAYS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO RANGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
MID-80S AND LOW-90S...WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXCEEDING THIS
RANGE ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. FOR THOSE WHO ENJOYED THESE PAST FEW
BELOW NORMAL DAYS...THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WILL BE A RUDE
REMINDER THAT IT IS IN FACT JULY. THE INCREASING TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY AS
WELL...WITH DEWS FORECAST TO AVERAGE AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 60S
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA MOST FAVORED TO SEE
DEWPOINTS OCCASIONALLY REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED THE MORE-
OPPRESSIVE 70 DEGREE MARK. AS FOR BOTH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES...SUNDAY IS CURRENTLY SLATED TO BE THE OVERALL-
HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITHIN THE CWA...AND MADE
RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ACTUAL TEMPS
AIMED FROM THE MID-90S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 90S-100
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST KEEPS ALL AREAS AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105+ DEGREES...THERE IS A
DECENT PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA NOW FORECAST TO OBSERVE VALUES IN THE
100-104 RANGE...SO HAVE KEPT THIS NEAR-ADVISORY HEAT INDEX
FORECAST IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).
FORTUNATELY...SUNDAY IS THE ONLY DAY OUT OF THESE 6 FORECAST TO
BREACH THE 100+ HEAT INDEX MARK...THANKS TO A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TEMPERING THE HEAT
A BIT...AND ALSO ALLOWING SURFACE BREEZES TO PREVAIL FROM MORE OF
AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK INSTEAD OF
THE PREVALENT SOUTHERLY DIRECTION EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
SWITCHING GEARS TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...FOR BETTER OR
WORSE THESE 6 DAYS SIGNAL A GENERAL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
PATTERN OF 1-2 WEEKS AGO...MEANING THAT THERE ARE A MULTITUDE OF
FAIRLY LOW 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE MAJORITY OF 12-HOUR
PERIODS...BUT VERY FEW OF THESE PERIODS WILL PROBABLY END UP
HAVING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SO BE SURE TO KEEP THESE MYRIAD CHANCES
ESPECIALLY BEYOND THE FIRST FEW DAYS IN PERSPECTIVE. THAT BEING
SAID...THE ONLY PERIOD THAT CURRENTLY FEATURES MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER 30-40 POPS IS MONDAY NIGHT...SO IF
TRENDS HOLD THIS MAY END UP BEING THE OVERALL-BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES...OBVIOUSLY GIVEN THE RETURN OF TYPICAL SUMMER
HEAT/HUMIDITY THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AROUND MOST OF
THE TIME...BUT ALSO TYPICAL OF SUMMER THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME
WILL PROBABLY HAVE NO BETTER THAN MODEST DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR
AND/OR CAPPING ISSUES. AS A RESULT...THERE IS FAR TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO SAY MUCH ABOUT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK BEYOND
THIS WEEKEND...BUT PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 3 OUTLOOK
THERE COULD BE AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT FOR LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND PROBABLY MORE-SO
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO NEB ZONES FROM
THE NORTH. ALSO...BACKING UP TO RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY
MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG STORMS
LINGERING IN EASTERN ZONES FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY
DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE...BUT ODDS ARE THAT ANY
LEGITIMATE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY THEN.
GETTING MORE INTO METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING THINGS IN
24-HOUR BLOCKS...
SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS REMAINS
THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON CENTRAL PLAINS WEATHER...BUT THE DAYTIME
HOURS START OUT WITH THE LINGERING DEPARTURE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...JUST CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME STORMS LINGERING OVER EASTERN ZONES INTO THE MID-MORNING
HOURS...AND THUS LARGELY MAINTAINED LOW POPS SATURDAY MORNING FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MID-UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF A BIT
AND TURNS THE FLOW MORE NORTHERLY ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH A
LACK OF DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. AS A RESULT...DESPITE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE CONSENSUS OF MOST MODELS AND KEEP SATURDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT
VOID OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POPS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH COULD AT
LEAST SEE SOME ACTIVITY COME VERY CLOSE TO AFFECTING THE CWA. HIGH
TEMPS AIMED FROM LOW 90S NORTHEAST TO MID-UPPER 90S
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE ENHANCED HEAT ASPECT AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE POSSIBLE STRONG-SEVERE STORM RISK LATE IN THE DAY
AND LIKELY MORE SO INTO THE EVENING HAS ALREADY BEEN COVERED
ABOVE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED A BIT BY THE
PASSAGE OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
GENERALLY ALONG THE CANADA BORDER. THIS IN TURN ALLOWS A WEAK BUT
DECENTLY-DEFINED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...POSSIBLY PROMOTING VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT
PRIMARILY WITHIN THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY HERE THOUGH.
MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...A BIT STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE UPPER JET CORE SINKS FARTHER
SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAINTAINED TOKEN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
DAY BUT AS ALREADY MENTIONED THE NIGHT PERIOD FEATURES THE
OVERALL-HIGHEST POPS OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD IN THE 30-40 RANGE AS
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE FAIRLY INSISTENT IN SPARKING POTENTIALLY
VIGOROUS AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPS TEMPER A BIT
FROM SUNDAY...GENERALLY AIMED UPPER 80S NORTH-MID 90S SOUTH.
TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THESE 24 HOURS REMAIN BLANKETED
WITH MAINLY TOKEN 20 POPS AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS ALONG THE
POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT ACTIVE INTERFACE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
DIRECTED ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS RIDGE AND
A VIGOROUS SOUTHEAST CANADA TROUGH. HIGH TEMPS MID 80S NORTH-LOW
90S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOST CONVECTION IN THE REGION COULD
FOCUS SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF THE CWA...BLANKET COVERAGE OF 20 POPS
CONTINUES DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. HIGH TEMPS MID 80S NORTH-LOW 90S
SOUTH.
THURSDAY DAYTIME...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT POPS CONTINUE AREA-WIDE FOR
NOW...THERE ARE VERY EARLY INDICATIONS THAT FLOW ALOFT MAY TURN
MORE ZONAL AND ALLOW WARMER ALOFT TO PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST...POTENTIALLY USHERING IN AT LEAST A BRIEF STRETCH THAT MAY
NOT EVEN BE WORTHY OF 20 POPS IN LATER FORECASTS. HIGH TEMPS VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED MID 80S NORTH-LOW 90S SOUTH...VERY SIMILAR TO
TUES-WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
VFR CONDITIONS STILL GOING FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH PRIMARY
CONCERNS LYING WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WINDS. WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IT AFFECTING EITHER TERMINAL IS LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION OUT AT THIS POINT. WILL SEE HOW RADAR
TRENDS GO. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
THIS EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND INSERTED A VCTS MENTION. WONT SEE A NOTABLE
CHANCE IN WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...REMAINING
SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...EVENTUALLY REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.
SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
443 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
SATELLITE AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING THE AREA UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SET UP BETWEEN A TROUGH CONTINUING TO
PUSH TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE
ROCKIES FROM HIGH PRESSURE ROUGHLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT
THE SFC...NO NOTABLE CHANGES...THE CWA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING THOSE SRLY WINDS IN PLACE.
STARTING TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WRN
EDGE OF THE CWA...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND INCREASED LIFT VIA A 30-
40ISH KT LLJ EDGES FURTHER EAST. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWING MUCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THAT WRN EDGE...BUT SHEAR IS FAIRLY LOW. EVEN
NOW MODELS STILL VARY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
KEEP THE POPS GOING ACROSS THE CWA AND SEE HOW THINGS TREND OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
STORMS.
WILL CONTINUE THE POPS INTO THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...BUT THINKING
IS THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. SOME MODELS HINT AT
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH
WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT AT THIS POINT UNLESS OTHER MODELS START
TRENDING THAT WAIT NOT BUYING INTO THAT SOLUTION...AND KEPT THE
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS DRY. BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT
NEED TO MONITOR...AND UPDATE IF IT DOES INDEED HAPPEN/AFFECT MAINLY
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA
TIGHTENS AND MIXING POTENTIAL INCREASES...SUSTAINED SPEEDS THIS
AFTERNOON OF 20-25 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG WITH GUSTS OVER
30 MPH. EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TURNS TO THE
WEST...AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG THAT SFC TROUGH AXIS...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE
PLAINS. THINK THE NAM AND SREF ARE TOO FAST WITH BRINGING THE
ACTIVITY EAST...ALREADY AFFECTING THE WRN CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE RAP/4KM WRF...SHOW THE BETTER
CHANCES COMING POST 00Z. TRIMMED BACK THE POPS A BIT FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING...LATEST RAP SHOWING EVEN AT 01Z THE
BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY IS W/NW OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY THINGS CAN
TREND DIFFERENTLY WITH UPCOMING MODEL RUNS...ANOTHER THING FOR THE
DAY SHIFT TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON...ESP WITH FOLKS WONDERING
WHETHER THEY WILL BE ABLE TO SEE THEIR FIREWORKS SHOWS. WHILE POPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS...STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE...WHICH MAY BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POPS. THAT
UNCERTAINTY EVEN CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES PUSHING EAST BUT
MODELS VARY WITH WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND BETTER CONVERGENCE
WILL END UP...WITH SOME SHOWING ACTIVITY PICKING BACK UP OVER OUR
ERN COUNTIES. PLENTY OF DETAINS YET TO IRON OUT...EVEN THIS CLOSE
TO THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THINKING AS FAR AS STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER GOES HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH...AS THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO KEEPS THAT POTENTIAL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS STILL LOOKING TO
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER STORY OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS A
PROLONGED STRETCH OF NEAR-NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL SUMMER
HEAT...MEANING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MOST DAYS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO RANGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
MID-80S AND LOW-90S...WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXCEEDING THIS
RANGE ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. FOR THOSE WHO ENJOYED THESE PAST FEW
BELOW NORMAL DAYS...THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WILL BE A RUDE
REMINDER THAT IT IS IN FACT JULY. THE INCREASING TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY AS
WELL...WITH DEWS FORECAST TO AVERAGE AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 60S
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA MOST FAVORED TO SEE
DEWPOINTS OCCASIONALLY REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED THE MORE-
OPPRESSIVE 70 DEGREE MARK. AS FOR BOTH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES...SUNDAY IS CURRENTLY SLATED TO BE THE OVERALL-
HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITHIN THE CWA...AND MADE
RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ACTUAL TEMPS
AIMED FROM THE MID-90S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 90S-100
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST KEEPS ALL AREAS AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105+ DEGREES...THERE IS A
DECENT PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA NOW FORECAST TO OBSERVE VALUES IN THE
100-104 RANGE...SO HAVE KEPT THIS NEAR-ADVISORY HEAT INDEX
FORECAST IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).
FORTUNATELY...SUNDAY IS THE ONLY DAY OUT OF THESE 6 FORECAST TO
BREACH THE 100+ HEAT INDEX MARK...THANKS TO A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TEMPERING THE HEAT
A BIT...AND ALSO ALLOWING SURFACE BREEZES TO PREVAIL FROM MORE OF
AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK INSTEAD OF
THE PREVALENT SOUTHERLY DIRECTION EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
SWITCHING GEARS TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...FOR BETTER OR
WORSE THESE 6 DAYS SIGNAL A GENERAL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
PATTERN OF 1-2 WEEKS AGO...MEANING THAT THERE ARE A MULTITUDE OF
FAIRLY LOW 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE MAJORITY OF 12-HOUR
PERIODS...BUT VERY FEW OF THESE PERIODS WILL PROBABLY END UP
HAVING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SO BE SURE TO KEEP THESE MYRIAD CHANCES
ESPECIALLY BEYOND THE FIRST FEW DAYS IN PERSPECTIVE. THAT BEING
SAID...THE ONLY PERIOD THAT CURRENTLY FEATURES MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER 30-40 POPS IS MONDAY NIGHT...SO IF
TRENDS HOLD THIS MAY END UP BEING THE OVERALL-BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES...OBVIOUSLY GIVEN THE RETURN OF TYPICAL SUMMER
HEAT/HUMIDITY THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AROUND MOST OF
THE TIME...BUT ALSO TYPICAL OF SUMMER THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME
WILL PROBABLY HAVE NO BETTER THAN MODEST DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR
AND/OR CAPPING ISSUES. AS A RESULT...THERE IS FAR TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO SAY MUCH ABOUT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK BEYOND
THIS WEEKEND...BUT PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 3 OUTLOOK
THERE COULD BE AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT FOR LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND PROBABLY MORE-SO
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO NEB ZONES FROM
THE NORTH. ALSO...BACKING UP TO RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY
MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG STORMS
LINGERING IN EASTERN ZONES FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY
DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE...BUT ODDS ARE THAT ANY
LEGITIMATE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY THEN.
GETTING MORE INTO METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING THINGS IN
24-HOUR BLOCKS...
SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS REMAINS
THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON CENTRAL PLAINS WEATHER...BUT THE DAYTIME
HOURS START OUT WITH THE LINGERING DEPARTURE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...JUST CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME STORMS LINGERING OVER EASTERN ZONES INTO THE MID-MORNING
HOURS...AND THUS LARGELY MAINTAINED LOW POPS SATURDAY MORNING FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MID-UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF A BIT
AND TURNS THE FLOW MORE NORTHERLY ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH A
LACK OF DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. AS A RESULT...DESPITE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE CONSENSUS OF MOST MODELS AND KEEP SATURDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT
VOID OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POPS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH COULD AT
LEAST SEE SOME ACTIVITY COME VERY CLOSE TO AFFECTING THE CWA. HIGH
TEMPS AIMED FROM LOW 90S NORTHEAST TO MID-UPPER 90S
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE ENHANCED HEAT ASPECT AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE POSSIBLE STRONG-SEVERE STORM RISK LATE IN THE DAY
AND LIKELY MORE SO INTO THE EVENING HAS ALREADY BEEN COVERED
ABOVE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED A BIT BY THE
PASSAGE OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
GENERALLY ALONG THE CANADA BORDER. THIS IN TURN ALLOWS A WEAK BUT
DECENTLY-DEFINED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...POSSIBLY PROMOTING VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT
PRIMARILY WITHIN THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY HERE THOUGH.
MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...A BIT STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE UPPER JET CORE SINKS FARTHER
SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAINTAINED TOKEN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
DAY BUT AS ALREADY MENTIONED THE NIGHT PERIOD FEATURES THE
OVERALL-HIGHEST POPS OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD IN THE 30-40 RANGE AS
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE FAIRLY INSISTENT IN SPARKING POTENTIALLY
VIGOROUS AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPS TEMPER A BIT
FROM SUNDAY...GENERALLY AIMED UPPER 80S NORTH-MID 90S SOUTH.
TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THESE 24 HOURS REMAIN BLANKETED
WITH MAINLY TOKEN 20 POPS AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS ALONG THE
POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT ACTIVE INTERFACE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
DIRECTED ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS RIDGE AND
A VIGOROUS SOUTHEAST CANADA TROUGH. HIGH TEMPS MID 80S NORTH-LOW
90S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOST CONVECTION IN THE REGION COULD
FOCUS SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF THE CWA...BLANKET COVERAGE OF 20 POPS
CONTINUES DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. HIGH TEMPS MID 80S NORTH-LOW 90S
SOUTH.
THURSDAY DAYTIME...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT POPS CONTINUE AREA-WIDE FOR
NOW...THERE ARE VERY EARLY INDICATIONS THAT FLOW ALOFT MAY TURN
MORE ZONAL AND ALLOW WARMER ALOFT TO PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST...POTENTIALLY USHERING IN AT LEAST A BRIEF STRETCH THAT MAY
NOT EVEN BE WORTHY OF 20 POPS IN LATER FORECASTS. HIGH TEMPS VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED MID 80S NORTH-LOW 90S SOUTH...VERY SIMILAR TO
TUES-WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRY WEATHER GOING THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THINGS REMAINING COMPLETELY DRY IS
NOT HIGH. MODELS VARY BUT SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED/SCATTERED PRECIP AROUND AS WE GET CLOSER TO
SUNRISE...THEN AGAIN IN THE LATER HOURS OF THE PERIOD. THE ISSUE
IS THAT THE OVERALL COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO AT THIS
TIME NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TERMINAL AREAS BEING DIRECTLY
AFFECTED TO INSERT A MENTION. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE
WINDS...EXPECTING SRLY WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE
GUSTY ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1243 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.
LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME CUMULUS FORMING JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH HAS
MOVED TO THE EAST AND THE SOUTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A LITTLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY TIGHT DURING THE NIGHT
TIME HOURS TONIGHT...SO WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH DURING
THE NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE NAM
AND FOR THE MOST PART THE ECMWF ARE MOSTLY DRY AND THE HRRR HAS
BASICALLY NO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GFS BRINGS IN THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND SPREADS THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER THERE COULD BE ANY
STRONG STORMS WITH THESE. THERE IS AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THAT COULD BRING IN SOME STORMS
THAT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS
WELL. WILL KEEP SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST BUT WITH THE WAVE APPROACHING THERE
COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE WEST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARMING TREND.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
PATTERN: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH VIA MULTI-AGENCY ENSEMBLE MEANS THAT A
LOW TO MODERATELY AMPLITUDE WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WILL
PREVAIL IN THE LONGWAVES FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL SAT-MON...THEN TURNING AT OR A LITTLE BELOW THAN
NORMAL TUE- THU.
ALOFT: A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW AND
SRN PLAINS FRI EVE. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. IT`S BEST SEEN
WITH DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE TOOLS. BEYOND THAT IT`S ANTICYCLONIC NW FLOW
HERE THRU SUN NIGHT...WITH THE POLAR JET CONFINED TO THE US-CAN
BORDER. UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL RESULT IN RE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE HEIGHTS
TO FALL OVER THE ERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK... DRIVING A COOL FRONT
INTO THE FCST AREA. NW FLOW WILL CONT MON-THU AND IT IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PICK OUT ANY SHORTWAVE TROFS.
SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL SUN. THEN
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION WILL SEND A COOL FRONT THRU HERE DURING THE DAY
SUN. THIS IS 6-12 HRS FASTER THAN WHEN WE LOOKED AT THIS YESTERDAY
...DEPENDENT UPON WHICH MODEL CHOSEN. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER KS MON-THU BUT WILL BE MODULATED AND/OR REINFORCED
BY TSTM ACTIVITY.
HAZARDS: THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME TSTM ACTIVITY FRI NIGHT TO
BE SEVERE. FOLLOW THE SPC OUTLOOKS FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A SLGT
RISK AND THE HWO FROM THIS OFFICE.
THERE IS OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTM OR
TWO SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
OTHER TSTM POTENTIAL EXISTS TUE-THU...BUT NO CONFIDENCE ON POTENCY
OR COVERAGE THIS FAR OUT IN A WEAK FORCING REGIME.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
FRI NIGHT: SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP LATE FRI AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT THEY WILL THREATEN AREAS N AND
W OF THE TRI-CITIES DURING THE EVENING. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01"
QPF SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OR END AS IT MOVES IN. THIS
MAY NOT BE THE END OF THE STORY. IF UPSTREAM STORMS CAN FORM A
COMMON COLD POOL AND PROPAGATE E...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO A MUCH
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH MUCAPE AVERAGING 2000 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AT LEAST 40 KTS. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF WRF-NMM AND
WRF-ARW HI-RES REFLECTIVITY SUGGEST THE IS A POSSIBILITY. WE NEED TO
MONITOR THIS TIME PERIOD FOR SEVERE TSTMS.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER ERN NEB/KS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
LLJ WILL REINTENSIFY...BUT LOW PRES THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES /AND
POSSIBLY THE TROF MOVING THRU HERE/ WILL FORCE THE LEE TROF E OF ITS
CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION. THE EFFECT WILL BE TO SHOVE THE LLJ CORE E
OF THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...REPOSITIONING THE BEST THETA-E
ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE E AS WELL.
SAT: ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS/TSTMS IN THE MORNING DEPART TO THE E.
TURNING HOT AS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FCST AREA CLIMBS INTO THE 90S.
TSTMS WILL FORM AGAIN OUT TO THE W. DO NOT ENVISION ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAKING IT HERE. STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AND
SHIFT TO N.
SUN: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. NOT SURE WE ARE HOT ENOUGH IN THE FCST.
THE COOL FRONT WILL DRAG A VERY HOT THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE FCST
AREA. 100-105F IS ON THE TABLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND S OF HWY 136.
IF THIS OCCURS THEN UPR 90S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE TRI-CITIES.
LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE SUNDAY MISERABLE WITHOUT A/C. DEWPOINTS
POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE 65-71F. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES
TO AROUND 100F OVER S-CNTRL NEB.
THE LLJ SAT NIGHT WILL ADVECT AN EML OVER THE FCST AREA. COMBINED
WITH SUBSIDENCE THIS WILL IMPOSE A FORMIDABLE CAP. SO TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS IFFY LATE AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT.
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...POSSIBLY A LEFT OVER SHWR/TSTM HERE OR
THERE. "IF" A TSTM OR TWO CAN MANAGE TO POP THRU THE CAP...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
...BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE UNDER 20 KTS.
MON: NEAR NORMAL HEAT FOR EARLY JULY...BUT NOTHING EXCESSIVE LIKE
SUN.
MON NIGHT: FOR NOW QPF FROM 00Z/12Z MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL-CLUSTERED
FOR TSTM/MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER NEB/KS. STAYED TUNED. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SOME
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. WE HAVE LOTS OF TIME FOR DETAILS TO EVOLVE.
TUE-THU: SEASONABLE TEMPS AS OF NOW...BUT MODELED TEMPS LOOK TOO
WARM FOR THE 500 MB FLOW. ENSEMBLE TEMP ANOMALIES SUGGEST TEMPS WILL
TREND COOLER THAN NORMAL.
WHILE EVERY LOCATION WILL NOT SEE A TSTM IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME
...THE POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. HOWEVER...
BOTH THE 12Z EC/GEM HAVE A CLEAR SIGNAL THAT A SECONDARY COOL FRONT
WILL SWEEP THRU TUE OR TUE NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...ENOUGH COOL AIR
COULD FORCE THE PREVIOUS FRONT FURTHER S RESULTING IN A DAY OR TWO
WHERE WE COULD REMOVE POPS FROM THE FCST. THIS SCENARIO ALSO
SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF TRENDING COOLER MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRY WEATHER GOING THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THINGS REMAINING COMPLETELY DRY IS
NOT HIGH. MODELS VARY BUT SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED/SCATTERED PRECIP AROUND AS WE GET CLOSER TO
SUNRISE...THEN AGAIN IN THE LATER HOURS OF THE PERIOD. THE ISSUE
IS THAT THE OVERALL COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO AT THIS
TIME NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TERMINAL AREAS BEING DIRECTLY
AFFECTED TO INSERT A MENTION. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE
WINDS...EXPECTING SRLY WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE
GUSTY ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
926 PM PDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY AND SPREAD FARTHER NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND KNOCKING TEMPERATURES DOWN
A FEW MORE DEGREES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. &&
.UPDATE...
A ROBUST MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
ARIZONA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. STORM PROPAGATION IN THIS COMPLEX
IS TOWARD THE WEST AS STORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE MAKE THEIR WAY
TOWARD THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM
TONIGHT IS WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT.
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF
THESE STORMS OVER THE RIVER VALLEY. MLCAPE VALUES OF 100O AS OF
9PM. SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS RIPE. THE OTHER END OF THE EQUATION IS
LOW LEVEL FORCING TO KEEP STORMS GOING. THE PHOENIX UPPER AIR
SOUNDING FROM 00Z SHOWED A NICE...FAIRLY STRONG...EASTERLY FLOW IN
NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH IS MAXIMIZING CONVERGENCE AND KEEPING THE
OUTFLOW FROM RACING TOO FAR AHEAD OF CONVECTION AND UNDERCUTTING
STORMS. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE
IF STORM CONTINUE TO REGENERATE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE GUST
FRONT. THE HRRR MODEL...WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS...SHOWS STORMS POPPING UP IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND EXTREME
SE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY BY 2AM. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ALL THE
ABOVE. SO WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF LAKE HAVASU...NEEDLES...TOPLOCK
AND WIKIUP. STAY TUNED.
OF EQUAL CONCERN IS THAT THE CONVECTION IN ARIZONA WILL LAY DOWN A
SUFACE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE EAST AND WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THIS COULD BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. AGAIN...WE WILL NEED
TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS SET UP WHEN THE CONVECTION ENDS LATER
TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS
WILL SET IN BETWEEN 16-19Z THURSDAY BEFORE GOING BACK TO
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE PEACH
SPRINGS CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. OUTFLOW
FROM THESE STORMS COULD BRING ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO THE TERMINAL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUED MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TERMINAL BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN MOHAVE AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES THEN MOSTLY CLEAR.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MOHAVE COUNTY
INTO EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTIES. ERRATIC AND
GUSTY WINDS NEAR STORMS ALONG WITH CEILING DOWN TO 8-10 KFT.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY. GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY LIGHT
DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM PDT THU JUL 3 2014/
.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SPREAD FARTHER NORTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND KNOCKING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER FAR EASTERN MOHAVE AND
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES WITH ACTIVITY DYING OUT FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN
UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF LAS VEGAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND JUST MAYBE OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE. MOISTURE PUSHES FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
EACH DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BIG QUESTION MARK IN MY MIND IS THE EXISTENCE OR LACK OF A MID/UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OR VORT MAX. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME SUCH FEATURE MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...GENERALLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THIS FEATURE ON RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER. IF IT DOES END UP DEVELOPING...IT COULD
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING ALL NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS AT LEAST
MOHAVE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY OVER EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY INTO
CLARK COUNTY. HOWEVER...I WENT WITH A MORE TYPICAL DOWNWARD POP
TREND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NAM12 INDICATES CAPE VALUES LOWERING
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE OTHER ISSUE IF THE MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY NIGHT
SCENARIO DEVELOPS IS IT COULD ACTUALLY RESULT IN SATURDAY BEING A
DOWN DAY FOR CONVECTION DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LEFT OVER FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT`S ACTIVITY AND COOL SURFACE TEMPS. SO IN OTHER WORDS
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL WITH THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER AND THEY COULD EVEN END UP COOLER THAN
FORECAST SATURDAY IF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER DOES DEVELOP AND
PERSIST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT`S ACTIVITY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF HAS COME
IN EVERY SO SLIGHTLY WETTER FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD...INCHING
CLOSER TO THE GFS. AS A RESULT I HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXTENDING THEM A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN THE
INHERITED FORECAST HAD. FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND INCLUDED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SINCE I CANNOT RULE SHOWERS OUT AT ANY ONE
LOCATION. TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THERE COULD BE AN
INCREASE IN DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH MAY BEGIN TO LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES OVER AT LEAST THE LOWER TERRAIN OF SAN BERNARDINO AND INYO
COUNTIES.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO GUSTY WINDS AND SKY COVER GENERATED BY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF A PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE SATURDAY. THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE AND
LINCOLN COUNTY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOHAVE COUNTY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR MOHAVE...CLARK AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
&&
$$
UPDATE: LERICOS
PREVIOUS: HARRISON/WOLCOTT
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A CLUSTER OF TS/SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SSWD ACROSS THE SW
MTS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THRU THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...WITH
AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LINGERING IN THE RIO GRANDE
FARTHER N TO THE ABQ AREA. BY SUNRISE THE PCPN SHOULD END. MUCH OF
CENTRAL NM SHOULD HAVE STANDING WATER ON THE GROUND...AND THIS MAY
RESULT IN PATCHY FOG TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING IF SKIES CAN CLEAR.
HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST MID AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD
LINGER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION KEEPING THE FOG POSSIBILITY SLIM.
WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING IN AN ARC OVER THE W AND
N MTS...SCT TO NMRS STORMS SHOULD FAVOR THOSE AREAS FRI AFTN AND
NIGHT. NOT AS CONFIDENT IN VCTS AT KABQ AS FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER N
AND W BECAUSE THE MOISTURE PLUME SKIRTS THE SUNPORT. HOWEVER...
MODEL STREAMLINES SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT FIRE ON THE SANDIAS OR
MANZANOS SHOULD DRIFT N NWWD TOWARD KABQ.
44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...537 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014...
.UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...SPC SSEO PRODUCT...THE HI-RES WRF
FROM ABQ AND SPC...AS WELL AS THE 23Z LAPS INSTABILITY PARAMS...
HAVE UPDATED TO RAISE POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE ABQ AND
SAF METRO AS WELL AS THE EAST MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES THIS EVENING.
EXPECT ROBUST CONVECTION TO CONTINUE MERGING INTO A CLUSTER AROUND
BERNALILLO...SANDOVAL...SANTA FE...AND TORRANCE COUNTIES. THIS
CLUSTER IS INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH IN
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHILE DISSIPATING THROUGH 08Z.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO
MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL BE ON INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A MUCH HEALTHIER CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS/TOWERING CUMULUS OVER ALL
MOUNTAIN RANGES THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH WEDNESDAY. CLASSIC
THUNDERHEAD STRUCTURE ALSO APPARENT WITH THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS VERY WEAK. CLOCKWISE
STEERING FLOW ALSO QUITE APPARENT AS STORMS OVER NORTHERN NM
MOVING/PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS DRIFTING EAST AND SOUTHEAST RESPECTIVELY. WITH
WEAK STEERING WINDS BEING THE RULE...COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL HAVE TO INITIATE STORMS IN THE BASINS AND VALLEYS THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY RUN WRF MODEL MODEL INDICATING THAT A CLUSTER OF
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THIS EVENING...QUITE POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE SANTA FE AND ABQ METRO
AREAS ALONG WITH EAST MOUNTAIN AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...NAM12 BUFR DATA
INDICATING THAT THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION/CAP OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE BROKEN EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A FEW MORE
HOURS OF ADDITIONAL HEATING...GETTING EASTERN AREAS INTO THE ACT.
SIMILAR SET UP FOR FRIDAY WITH MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING STEERING
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE ELY. TOUGH PART IS GETTING STORMS
TO PROPAGATE OFF THE SMALLER MOUNTAINS RANGES SUCH AS THE SANDIAS
AND MANZANOS INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS AND BASINS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WINDS. FOURTH OF JULY ACTIVITIES IN THE NORTH VALLEY
OF ABQ MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
NAM12 INDICATING SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH STEERING FLOW TAKING STORMS SLOWLY WEST AND NORTHWEST.
VERY DRY AIRMASS AT 500MB WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER HIGH AND OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LIMITING STORM CHANCES
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WESTWARD TO THE MIDDLE RG VALLEY.
BY TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MORE
TRADITIONAL UPPER LEVEL PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL WORK UP
INTO AZ. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SEEP INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NM FOR AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BEYOND DAY SEVEN AS TO THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER HIGH AND WHETHER OR NOT THE MONSOON PLUME
WILL BE CENTERED OVER NM OR AZ.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT GRADUAL DRYING HAS TAKEN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH THE MORNING MOISTURE MIXING OUT.
DESPITE THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL DEVELOPING IN
THIS AREA AND PROVIDE WETTING RAINS...THOUGH A FEW MAY BE ON THE
DRIER SIDE. THIS AND CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY MOVING SSE ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND WSW ACROSS
SW NM. HRRR MODEL INDICATES CONVECTION WILL PERSIST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RGV. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE CAP
BREAKS PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 RUNS...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO POP GRIDS.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE ACROSS THE
DESERT SW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TURNING CLOCKWISE AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN. BY SUNDAY...THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED...BUT FAVOR THE GILA MOUNTAINS. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE
MOIST SFC AND 700MB LEVEL S TO SE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE
WESTERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL DRYING AREAWIDE THROUGH
SUNDAY AND OVERALL DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL
LOWER EACH DAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES WILL DROP AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEY AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND BECOME NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. VENT RATES AND TRANS WINDS
WILL BOTTOM OUT FRIDAY BEFORE IMPROVING THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW NM.
MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING IN THE SETUP OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. USING A BLEND CONCEPT...IT APPEARS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THE HIGH SLIGHTLY WEST...WITH A WEAK
WIND SHIFT AT THE 700 AND 500MB LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING BACK A MORE
MOIST SELY TO SLY TO NEW MEXICO. THIS CONCEPTUAL MODEL ALIGNS WITH
GFS THETA-E RIDGE POSITIONING. BY MONDAY...THE THETA-E RIDGE BECOME
VERTICAL ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER...AND SLOWLY MOVE E WHILE TURNING
CLOCKWISE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS...HIGHER HUMIDITIES...AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL SEE
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THIS PATTERN...OR DIVERGE AGAIN.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
157 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AS DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM EDT UPDATE...
ALL WATCHES HAVE EXPIRED THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FOR THE MOST PART EXITED THE
AREA. A SFC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN NY AND EXPECT TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS A LINE OF WEAK
SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH. OTHERWISE... MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
115 PM UPDATE...
WW 389 (SVR) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CNY/NE PA THROUGH 01Z.
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND PRODUCERS IS STILL THERE...WITH ML CAPES
BLDG INTO THE 1000-1500 RANGE...AND 0-3 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KT. A
TRANSITION...HOWEVER...MORE TWDS A HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO IS STILL
FORESEEN BY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY IN THE EVE...AS PER PREV DISC
BLO.
PREV DISC... 1030 AM UPDATE... RELATIVELY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE
TO THE SKY COVER/POP/WX GRIDS...BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE.
SAT/RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MRNG SHOWS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDS OVER
CNY/NE PA...WITH MRNG FOG/STRATUS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE. PRIND
STILL ARE THAT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL FIRE UP OVER OUR WRN/NRN ZNS EARLY
THIS AFTN (16-18Z)...WITH COVERAGE GROWING FARTHER E LATER IN THE
DAY (18-20Z AND LATER). OUR LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR OUTPUT SUPPORTS
THIS THINKING WELL.
AS FAR AS POTENTIAL SVR STORMS GO...WE FEEL THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY (MOSTLY 18-21Z)...AS STORMS INITIALLY
FORM...AND ARE ABLE TO PLUG INTO DEEP-LYRD SHEAR (0-3 KM VALUES OF
30-40 KT). STG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS REGARD.
LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVE...HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BECOME THE
GREATER CONCERN...MOSTLY OVER OUR SERN ZNS (NE PA AND THE WRN
CATSKILLS). THE MAIN PLAYERS HERE ARE A STRENGTHENING UPR-LVL JET
TO OUR N FROM LK ONT INTO ONT/QUE...A SLOW MOVING FRNTL BNDRY ACRS
WRN/CNTRL NY...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (WITH INCREASING INPUT
FROM ARTHUR BY EARLY EVE). THE LATEST BLENDED TPW/WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS ARTHUR`S MOISTURE PLUME MERGING INTO THE ALREADY
EXISTING BAND OF FAIRLY HI PWAT AIR ALG THE MID-ATL COAST...AS OF
LATE THIS MRNG. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS LARGER-
SCALE MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN SHOWING BACKING
925-850 MB FLOW...WITH DEEPER TROP MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO ERN
PA/NJ/SERN NY BY 22-02Z. MODEL TRAJS FROM THE LATEST GFS/RAP RUNS
ALSO SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF ARTHUR`S INFLUENCE LIKELY INTO ERN
PA BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME FRAME.
THE ABV DESCRIBED CONFIGURATION OF THE UPR JET CORE...LOW-LVL
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...PWAT...AND A SFC FRNT STILL MATCH THE
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR A "SWLY JET TYPE PRE" (PREDECESSOR RAIN
EVENT) WELL. AS STATED EARLIER...WE THINK THE MAIN FF THREAT IN
OUR CWA WILL BE E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...BUT SINCE THE WATCH IS
PRESENTLY UP AREA-WIDE...AND CONVECTION HAS NOT REALLY SHOWN
ITSELF JUST YET...WE`LL LEAVE THE WATCH AREA AS IS FOR THE TIME
BEING.
OTHERWISE...OUR HIGH TEMP FCST THIS AFTN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE (GENERALLY UPR 70S-MID 80S...WITH SOME UPR 80S IN THE
WYO/LACK VLYS OF NE PA).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO NY KEEPING TS ARTHUR ON THE
COAST. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL PUSH EAST. THIS WILL PUSH SHOWERS OUT OF THE FAR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRI NGT AS
ARTHUR MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE HIGH. WITH THE CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY PEAK MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S FOR A COLD 4TH.
ON SAT THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BUT
EXTEND NORTH INTO ONTARIO PROVIDING THE OUR CWA WITH DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER FRI NGT TO SAT NGT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY BUT WARMER THAN FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF ACTIVE WEATHER THIS AFTN...MED RNG FSCT
INCORPORATED HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH LOOKED VERY GOOD. PTRN WILL
FAVOR A BROAD UPR TROF WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVG THRU...LEADING TO A
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE WITH A FNTL SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE RGN MON NGT/TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SECONDARY TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
AT 06Z, HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. OVERALL LOW MVFR
TO CLOSE TO AIRPORT MINS WILL PERSIST OVER THE TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK AS LOW
LEVEL DRYING AND MIXING OCCURS. BY 13Z-14Z, SKIES WILL IMPROVE TO
BKN LOW VFR FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD WITH FAIR WX STRATO CU. THIS
EVENING SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. AT KAVP, MOISTURE FROM ARTHUR WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LOW MVFR SHOWERS THROUGH 10Z.
LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS. BY MID
MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS. LIGHT
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUN...VFR.
MON...VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KELM.
MON NGT/TUE...MVFR PSBL IN SCT TSRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1034 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND ANCHOR OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ALLOWING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RETURN MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
GRADUALLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS OF
THE CAROLINAS...WILL LED TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...MAINLY THIN CIRRUS IS STREAMING OVERHEAD
THIS EVENING...BUT THE INFRARED SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS QUITE A
BIT WORSE THAN IT LOOKS FROM THE OFFICE PARKING LOT. THE ONLY
LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER CLOUDS BENEATH THE CIRRUS
IS GEORGETOWN WHERE CLOUDS WITH BASES JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET
(PRESUMABLY MARITIME CUMULUS) ARE BEING REPORTED ON THE GGE AWOS.
THE NEW 00Z NAM CONCURS WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS THAT MARINE SHOWERS
MAY ATTEMPT TO SPREAD ONSHORE IN THE GEORGETOWN VICINITY AROUND
SUNRISE...SO I HAVE UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE 11-15Z TIME FRAME
THERE. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...SETTLING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE DAYBREAK.
TO THE SOUTH A SEEMINGLY OUT-OF-PLACE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST IS IGNITING QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. CONVECTIVE
BLOWOFF CLOUDINESS STREAMING NORTHWARD HAS PROVIDED A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
INCLUDING GEORGETOWN AND MYRTLE BEACH. WHILE MUCH OF THE LOWER
CUMULUS CLOUD COVER THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...THIS HIGHER CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF MAY
PERSIST.
AS THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIFTS NORTHWARD...ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE BASE OF A SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
BETWEEN 775-700 MB...APPROXIMATELY 7500-10500 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL. THIS MAY SPELL INCREASING CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE CONDITIONS MAY
TEMPORARILY CLEAR OUT LATER THIS EVENING. WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL
MARINE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY OFFSHORE
WILL ADVECT WESTWARD...WITH SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOPING ALONG THE SC
COAST SOUTH OF MYRTLE BEACH.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A PRONOUNCED NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
TONIGHT. ACROSS INTERIOR SE NORTH CAROLINA GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND A PREEXISTING COOL/DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO 61-65 RANGE...IN PLACES ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACROSS
NE SOUTH CAROLINA MORE CLOUDS AND A HEALTHIER ONSHORE WIND WILL
PRECLUDE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WARMEST NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...ANOTHER DAY WITH RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY
WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY BEFORE THE CANADIAN HIGH MIGRATES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY THAN SUNDAY
DUE TO VEERING WINDS AND THE USHERING OF A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME AIR-MASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. ON AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPS MONDAY
LOOKS TO PAN OUT 4-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER GA/SC MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR VERY SOUTHERN COAST
AND COASTAL INTERIOR TO NEAR CAPE FEAR SUNDAY. DRY AIR ALOFT OVER
THE REGION WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF EXPECTED PCPN
AND CELL COVERAGE...AND ONLY ISOLATED POP VALUES WILL BE
ADVERTISED FOR THE SC ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY DRY AND QUIET START
TO THE PERIOD AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S INLAND/LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. PATTERN BEGINS TO
CHANGE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS WITH THE AID OF A HIGH PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST . TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS AND FIZZLES WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...OR IF IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA AND STALLS.
OVERALL...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP WITH A NON-FRONTAL PASSAGE
EVENT...BUT RATHER HAVING IT STALL/FALL JUST SHORT TO OUR WEST. WITH
THAT SAID...HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER/POPS AND KEPT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS MOISTURE
INCREASES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES OR
SLIGHTLY MORE. AS FOR TEMPS WE WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS SCT/BKN CLOUDS BELOW 10KFT
PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR SOUTH CAROLINA TERMINALS. THESE CLOUDS WILL
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS AS
CIGS REMAIN VFR. EAST WINDS MAY BECOME MORE E-NE TOWARD MORNING...
GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OFF THE FL/GA COAST IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ALONG THE COAST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT KMYR/KCRE. WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN ATTM AS MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT TEMPO -SHRA AT KMYR OR
KCRE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY. EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
AOB 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...THE LIMITED MARINE DATA AVAILABLE CONFIRMS
OUR EARLIER FORECAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO WINDS
OR SEAS. THE NEW 00Z NAM MODEL PLUS SEVERAL OF THE RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR MODEL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE MAY
BE RISING IN THE GEORGETOWN/WINYAH BAY VICINITY AND OFFSHORE. ALSO
OF NOTE OUR LOCAL WATERSPOUT THREAT CALCULATOR HAS INCREASED THAT
POTENTIAL INTO THE "MODERATE" CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA IS PRODUCING AN
ONSHORE WIND ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ODD MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST IS HELPING ACCELERATE THE
ONSHORE WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS BEING
REPORTED NEARSHORE FROM MYRTLE BEACH SOUTHWARD INTO THE CHARLESTON
VICINITY. THESE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC WATERS WHERE THE HIGH WILL
BUILD DOWN AND SPREAD ITS LESSENED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD. A
LITTLE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS AND THAT IS WHERE MY HIGHEST FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN.
AN EARLIER UPDATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BROUGHT NEARSHORE SEAS INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ONSHORE WINDS...AND NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NEEDED. THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY IS
REPORTING A 3.4 FT CHOP EVERY 5 SECONDS...WITH NOAA BUOY 41004 40
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON REPORTING A VERY CHOPPY 7 FEET EVERY
5-6 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...ONSHORE ENE-E WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL
RESULT IN BUMPY 3-4 FOOT SEAS FOR THE MOST PART...BUT AS WINDS GO
SE AND S INTO AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SEAS WILL LIKELY DROP
ANOTHER FOOT OR SO. SO WHILE NOT IDEAL CONDITIONS...NO ADVISORIES
OR EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED. NO TSTMS EXPECTED
ON THE 0-20NM WATERS BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY DOT AREAS AROUND WINYAH
BAY. THE MAJORITY OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ARRIVING FROM E AND SE
AND A MODERATE CHOP FROM THE S-SW IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS NEAR 20 KT. AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTS
TO NEAR 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH AFTERNOON. WITH
MAINLY WIND DRIVEN WIND WAVES...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 4 FT WITH 5 FTERS POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN AMZ-252 AND AMZ-250. INTO THURSDAY...SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE FIRST SEVERE THREAT IS NOW EAST OF THE FA. ATTENTION NOW TURNS
TO THE WEST WITH STORMS APPROACHING FROM CANADA AND FROM SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THE HRRR/RAP MAY BE TOO WIDESPREAD WITH COVERAGE IN
THEIR FORECASTS...BUT BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
FILL IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SEVERE AREAS...AND INDICATE THAT THESE
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING SEGMENTS (STRONG WIND GUSTS).
INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
INCREASING...ALONG WITH A 40-50 KNOT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX...AND
WITH A STRONG UPPER WAVE (DECENT SYNOPTIC FORCING). SO...THE HI-
RES MODELS MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING. THIS LOOKS TO BE A BUSY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HRRR IS ONCE AGAIN PERFORMING MORE
FAVORABLY THAN RAP AS IT RELATES TO CURRENT CONVECTION...SO WILL
FOLLOW ITS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS AND THEN
TRANSITION TO A GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE.
SFC TROUGH REFUSES TO BUDGE WITH A DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR
THE ND/MN/MB BORDER. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION FROM DEVILS LAKE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY RESULTING
IN A DRIER OVERALL AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH SFC BASED CAPE IS STILL
ABOVE 2000 J/KG. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NORTHWEST MN IN UNCAPPED
MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAREST THE SFC LOW. FORCING IS
STILL RATHER WEAK...BUT ONE SEVERE STORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER
WINNIPEG AND IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. A COUPLE OTHER SMALL
CELLS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE SFC WIND SHIFT JUST NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND IN KITTSON COUNTY. ISOLATED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
HIGH INSTABILITY. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS
EVENING WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S.
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA. INCREASING SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH MUCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHWEST MN. HRRR PLACES THIS LINE ALONG THE
VALLEY FLOOR BY 06 UTC. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MN ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPS/DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER
RESULTING IN LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AT
TIMES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST MON/TUES WITH THE NEXT PRIMARY
WAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW
DEEP NEXT 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE OVER ONTARIO AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. EITHER WAY FCST REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH EXITING SHORT WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE
FOR WED-EARLY THU. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT US LATE
THU-FRI. DIDNT STRAY FROM ALL BLEND TEMPS NOR POPS MUCH. OVERALL
TEMP REGIME AFTER THIS WEEKEND FAVORS A RETURN TO JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE STORMS WILL BE...AND KEPT
VCTS UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY CAN BE OBTAINED. VFR CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
649 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
SEE SWOMCD 1278 CONCERNING DETAILS REGARDING THE STORMS CURRENTLY
ACROSS NW MINNESOTA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD...AND OUT OF THE FA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EYES WILL
THEN TURN TO THE WEST...WHERE ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE
WESTERN MANITOBA...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. NOT SURE HOW THESE
TWO AREAS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME SORT OF MCS EVENT (WITH EACH EVENT
LIKELY REMAINING SEPARATE). ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF FORECASTED
POPS...AND WILL LOOK MORE INTO THE DETAILS OF THE OVERNIGHT EVENT
WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HRRR IS ONCE AGAIN PERFORMING MORE
FAVORABLY THAN RAP AS IT RELATES TO CURRENT CONVECTION...SO WILL
FOLLOW ITS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS AND THEN
TRANSITION TO A GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE.
SFC TROUGH REFUSES TO BUDGE WITH A DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR
THE ND/MN/MB BORDER. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION FROM DEVILS LAKE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY RESULTING
IN A DRIER OVERALL AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH SFC BASED CAPE IS STILL
ABOVE 2000 J/KG. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NORTHWEST MN IN UNCAPPED
MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAREST THE SFC LOW. FORCING IS
STILL RATHER WEAK...BUT ONE SEVERE STORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER
WINNIPEG AND IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. A COUPLE OTHER SMALL
CELLS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE SFC WIND SHIFT JUST NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND IN KITTSON COUNTY. ISOLATED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
HIGH INSTABILITY. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS
EVENING WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S.
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA. INCREASING SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH MUCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHWEST MN. HRRR PLACES THIS LINE ALONG THE
VALLEY FLOOR BY 06 UTC. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MN ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPS/DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER
RESULTING IN LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AT
TIMES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST MON/TUES WITH THE NEXT PRIMARY
WAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW
DEEP NEXT 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE OVER ONTARIO AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. EITHER WAY FCST REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH EXITING SHORT WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE
FOR WED-EARLY THU. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT US LATE
THU-FRI. DIDNT STRAY FROM ALL BLEND TEMPS NOR POPS MUCH. OVERALL
TEMP REGIME AFTER THIS WEEKEND FAVORS A RETURN TO JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE STORMS WILL BE...AND KEPT
VCTS UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY CAN BE OBTAINED. VFR CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
336 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. FOR TONIGHT THE
WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTATIONS ARE LOW FOR CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. HRRR MESO MODEL TRIES
TO GET A LINE OF CONVECTION GOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING BUT DIMINISHES THE CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. LOOKS
AS THOUGH MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL FOCUS MORE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY THEN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER WARM UP BY
NEXT WEEKS END.
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY LEADS TO
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY BY DAYS END INTO THE EVENING. COMPARED TO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE SITUATION LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS
SATURDAY EVENING/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING 40-50KTS OF
0-6KM SHEAR ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME CIN WILL BE
PRESENT...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
JET STREAK AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY INHIBITION. SPC
EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER MORE SOUTH TO
INCLUDE MORE OF WEST AND CENTRAL ND TO ACCOMMODATE THOSE AREAS NEAR
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL IMPULSES AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER JET.
SURFACE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE
OFF TO MY NORTHEAST MAY TRIGGER ANOTHER STORM ON SUNDAY AROUND THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE LOOKS DRY SUNDAY DAYTIME WITH A
BREEZY DRYING-OUT NORTHWEST WIND. ANOTHER EMBEDDED
WAVE...TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A MORE ROBUST WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA
ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY FOR THIS LATER
FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND 80S...BUT ALMOST DAILY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
A RETURN OF MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND AND CONTINUED INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT BEYOND THE EXTEND PERIOD...NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
AT 320 PM CDT...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WARM MOIST FLOW OVER THIS WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MORE DIRECTLY IMPACT KJMS THROUGH
00Z. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
CREATED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORAGE AT BOTH ALAMEDA DAM AND
LAKE DARLING. RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM INCREASED TO 1060 CFS ON
WEDNESDAY. RELEASES FROM LAKE DARLING DAM WILL REMAIN AROUND 2000
CFS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ON THE SOURIS
RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
315 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALSO CONCERNED WITH SEVERE CHANCES SATURDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAP HAVING TROUBLE WITH TIMING
AND LOCATION OF CURRENT CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE MORE REALISTIC
HRRR...SO WILL USE THE LATTER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS TRANSITIONING TO A GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SATURDAY
AND BEYOND.
20 UTC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF NON-SEVERE CONVECTION.
THE FIRST IS A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AND
THE SECOND IS MUCH SMALLER ALONG THE EASTERN ND/SD BORDER. THIS
SECOND AREA OF STORMS HAS THE GREATER POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
GIVEN A WEAKENING CAP IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FORCING WITH SHORT-WAVE ALOFT SEEMS TO
BE FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH AND MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORM
INTENSIFICATION. OVERALL...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING EAST OF THE RIVER
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SATURDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN AFTERNOON ENVIRONMENT THAT IS
HIGHLY UNSTABLE (SFC CAPE RISING TO 4000 J/KG)...BUT CAPPED BY
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING PROVIDING THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
MAIN QUESTION IS IF SFC CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED
AND/OR MID-LEVELS WILL COOL ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. WILL
FOLLOW SPC THINKING IN THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD BEGIN ACROSS
CENTRAL ND AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITION INTO SOME KIND OF MCS AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN LATE SATURDAY/
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS IDEA IS COVERED WELL IN SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S) WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT INDICATING A WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...PLACING THIS REGION IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE FLATTENS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ARE HARD TO
TIME...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE A SITUATION WHERE MOST DAYS WILL HAVE
ISOLD-SCATTERED T-STORMS FOR A SHORT DURATION. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES...POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE TRICKY PART IS TIMING AND COVERAGE...AND USED THE
LATEST HI-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST TO COME UP WITH THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CALMER WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
HALLOCK TO CAVALIER AND THEN SOUTHWEST TOWARDS COOPERSTOWN. HAVE
RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL ACROSS NORTHEAST ND
WITH THE PRIMARY CLUSTER. INTERESTINGLY...THESE STORMS ARE IN AN
AREA WITH LITTLE SFC OR MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY AND ONLY 250 TO
750 J/KG OF MUCAPE. SOUTHERLY 850 HPA WINDS UP TO 35 KTS AND
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE ALOFT PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING IN THE
GRIDS...BUT IT APPEARS AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN) WITH FORCING OUT RUNNING THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY. SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST WITH
POCKETS OF ENERGY ALOFT RIDING THE RIDGE. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
GREATER IN THESE AREAS AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
INTERESTING SET-UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. QUICK MOVING
SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND WILL MOVE
THROUGH BROAD 500 HPA RIDGE AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...RAP IS
SHOWING AN AREA OF 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR FROM 40 TO 45 KTS.
BOUNDARY LAYER IS INITIALLY WELL CAPPED THROUGH 18-19 UTC...
ERODING THEREAFTER WITH UPWARDS OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. FURTHER EAST...INSTABILITY IS LESS
BUT STILL AROUND 500 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...BUT THERE EXIST
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0 TO 3 KM VGP VALUES RISE QUICKLY TO
BETWEEN 0.3 AND 0.5 ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST MN. GIVEN
ALL THESE FACTORS...SPC DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK AREA LOOKS GOOD. MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE IF PRIMARY FORCING ALOFT MOVES THROUGH BEFORE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED AFTER THE CAP ERODES.
WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS AND UPDATE POPS TO REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS FROM THE RAP/HRRR...BOTH SHOWING INCREASING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE) FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ND
INTO NORTHWEST MN. STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE VALLEY BY LATE
EVENING. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE WARM AND BREEZY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND A STIFF SOUTHERLY
WIND WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CELLS CONTINUE TO FIRE FROM NERN SD INTO
FAR SERN ND AND THE EDGE OF WCNTRL MN. STILL EXPECT THESE CELLS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING...
REACHING INTO THE FARGO-MOORHEAD AREA THROUGH THE FORENOON.
ELSE... NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST PACKAGE ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING ACROSS NORTHEAST SD THIS EARLY
MORNING ALONG AN ELEVATED BAND OF INSTABILITY...WITH A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE SHOWING. RUC AND HRRR HAVE THIS BAND PERSISTING THRU
MID MORNING AS IT EXPANDS ACROSS SERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
THEN THIS BAND CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO NERN ND AND NORTHWEST
MN BY MIDDAY...WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SHEAR LEAD TO FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVELS CAPE /+500 J/KG/ AND LOW
LEVEL /0 TO 2 KM LAYER/ VGP EXCEEDING 0.2 UNITS. SPC HAS
IDENTIFIED THIS AREA AS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH A 5
PERCENT RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO. WOULD EXPECT THIS THREAT TO BE
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER FROM MID AFTERNOON ON...
SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST MN FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.
A CHASER SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY ON SATURDAY.. WITH MOTTLED CLOUD COVER
AND SOMETHING OF A STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH THE
DAY. AN APPROACHING MID LVL SHORTWV TROF LOOKS TO DISRUPT THAT CAP
STARTING INTO NORTHWEST ND BY LATE AFTERNOON... AND PROGRESSING
INTO NORTHEAST ND LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN...A SIGNAL AMONG
MOST MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
SATURDAY NIGHT ROUNDING THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE WOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION...WITH SOME SORT OF MCS SATURDAY
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE MUCH STRONGER...WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVING INTO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN REGION EARLY ON
SUNDAY.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE WEEK...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
MON-TUE TIME FRAME...WITH AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWERS/STORMS.
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...A GRADUAL FLATTENING OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED.
PRECIP CHANCES MAY DECREASE FOR MID-WEEK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER FORCING...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WARMING BACK UP BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE TRICKY PART IS TIMING AND COVERAGE...AND USED THE
LATEST HI-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST TO COME UP WITH THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CALMER WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1004 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
INTERESTING SET-UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. QUICK MOVING
SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND WILL MOVE
THROUGH BROAD 500 HPA RIDGE AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...RAP IS
SHOWING AN AREA OF 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR FROM 40 TO 45 KTS.
BOUNDARY LAYER IS INITIALLY WELL CAPPED THROUGH 18-19 UTC...
ERODING THEREAFTER WITH UPWARDS OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. FURTHER EAST...INSTABILITY IS LESS
BUT STILL AROUND 500 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...BUT THERE EXIST
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0 TO 3 KM VGP VALUES RISE QUICKLY TO
BETWEEN 0.3 AND 0.5 ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST MN. GIVEN
ALL THESE FACTORS...SPC DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK AREA LOOKS GOOD. MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE IF PRIMARY FORCING ALOFT MOVES THROUGH BEFORE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED AFTER THE CAP ERODES.
WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS AND UPDATE POPS TO REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS FROM THE RAP/HRRR...BOTH SHOWING INCREASING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE) FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ND
INTO NORTHWEST MN. STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE VALLEY BY LATE
EVENING. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE WARM AND BREEZY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND A STIFF SOUTHERLY
WIND WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CELLS CONTINUE TO FIRE FROM NERN SD INTO
FAR SERN ND AND THE EDGE OF WCNTRL MN. STILL EXPECT THESE CELLS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING...
REACHING INTO THE FARGO-MOORHEAD AREA THROUGH THE FORENOON.
ELSE... NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST PACKAGE ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING ACROSS NORTHEAST SD THIS EARLY
MORNING ALONG AN ELEVATED BAND OF INSTABILITY...WITH A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE SHOWING. RUC AND HRRR HAVE THIS BAND PERSISTING THRU
MID MORNING AS IT EXPANDS ACROSS SERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
THEN THIS BAND CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO NERN ND AND NORTHWEST
MN BY MIDDAY...WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SHEAR LEAD TO FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVELS CAPE /+500 J/KG/ AND LOW
LEVEL /0 TO 2 KM LAYER/ VGP EXCEEDING 0.2 UNITS. SPC HAS
IDENTIFIED THIS AREA AS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH A 5
PERCENT RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO. WOULD EXPECT THIS THREAT TO BE
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER FROM MID AFTERNOON ON...
SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST MN FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.
A CHASER SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY ON SATURDAY.. WITH MOTTLED CLOUD COVER
AND SOMETHING OF A STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH THE
DAY. AN APPROACHING MID LVL SHORTWV TROF LOOKS TO DISRUPT THAT CAP
STARTING INTO NORTHWEST ND BY LATE AFTERNOON... AND PROGRESSING
INTO NORTHEAST ND LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN...A SIGNAL AMONG
MOST MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
SATURDAY NIGHT ROUNDING THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE WOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION...WITH SOME SORT OF MCS SATURDAY
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE MUCH STRONGER...WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVING INTO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN REGION EARLY ON
SUNDAY.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE WEEK...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
MON-TUE TIME FRAME...WITH AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWERS/STORMS.
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...A GRADUAL FLATTENING OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED.
PRECIP CHANCES MAY DECREASE FOR MID-WEEK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER FORCING...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WARMING BACK UP BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
VFR CONDS WITH INCREASING CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FA THROOUGH THE DAY. ISOLD TSTMS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH MIDDAY WILL BECOME SCT AND EXPAND ACROSS NERN ND AND NWRN
MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING... BECOMING VFR BY
NIGHTFALL.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
650 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CELLS CONTINUE TO FIRE FROM NERN SD INTO
FAR SERN ND AND THE EDGE OF WCNTRL MN. STILL EXPECT THESE CELLS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING...
REACHING INTO THE FARGO-MOORHEAD AREA THROUGH THE FORENOON.
ELSE... NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST PACKAGE ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING ACROSS NORTHEAST SD THIS EARLY
MORNING ALONG AN ELEVATED BAND OF INSTABILITY...WITH A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE SHOWING. RUC AND HRRR HAVE THIS BAND PERSISTING THRU
MID MORNING AS IT EXPANDS ACROSS SERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
THEN THIS BAND CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO NERN ND AND NORTHWEST
MN BY MIDDAY...WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SHEAR LEAD TO FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVELS CAPE /+500 J/KG/ AND LOW
LEVEL /0 TO 2 KM LAYER/ VGP EXCEEDING 0.2 UNITS. SPC HAS
IDENTIFIED THIS AREA AS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH A 5
PERCENT RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO. WOULD EXPECT THIS THREAT TO BE
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER FROM MID AFTERNOON ON...
SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST MN FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.
A CHASER SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY ON SATURDAY.. WITH MOTTLED CLOUD COVER
AND SOMETHING OF A STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH THE
DAY. AN APPROACHING MID LVL SHORTWV TROF LOOKS TO DISRUPT THAT CAP
STARTING INTO NORTHWEST ND BY LATE AFTERNOON... AND PROGRESSING
INTO NORTHEAST ND LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN...A SIGNAL AMONG
MOST MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
SATURDAY NIGHT ROUNDING THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE WOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION...WITH SOME SORT OF MCS SATURDAY
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE MUCH STRONGER...WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVING INTO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN REGION EARLY ON
SUNDAY.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE WEEK...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
MON-TUE TIME FRAME...WITH AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWERS/STORMS.
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...A GRADUAL FLATTENING OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED.
PRECIP CHANCES MAY DECREASE FOR MID-WEEK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER FORCING...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WARMING BACK UP BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
VFR CONDS WITH INCREASING CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FA THROOUGH THE DAY. ISOLD TSTMS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH MIDDAY WILL BECOME SCT AND EXPAND ACROSS NERN ND AND NWRN
MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING... BECOMING VFR BY
NIGHTFALL.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
410 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING ACROSS NORTHEAST SD THIS EARLY
MORNING ALONG AN ELEVATED BAND OF INSTABILITY...WITH A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE SHOWING. RUC AND HRRR HAVE THIS BAND PERSISTING THRU
MID MORNING AS IT EXPANDS ACROSS SERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
THEN THIS BAND CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO NERN ND AND NORTHWEST
MN BY MIDDAY...WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SHEAR LEAD TO FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVELS CAPE /+500 J/KG/ AND LOW
LEVEL /0 TO 2 KM LAYER/ VGP EXCEEDING 0.2 UNITS. SPC HAS
IDENTIFIED THIS AREA AS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH A 5
PERCENT RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO. WOULD EXPECT THIS THREAT TO BE
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER FROM MID AFTERNOON ON...
SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST MN FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.
A CHASER SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY ON SATURDAY.. WITH MOTTLED CLOUD COVER
AND SOMETHING OF A STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH THE
DAY. AN APPROACHING MID LVL SHORTWV TROF LOOKS TO DISRUPT THAT CAP
STARTING INTO NORTHWEST ND BY LATE AFTERNOON... AND PROGRESSING
INTO NORTHEAST ND LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN...A SIGNAL AMONG
MOST MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
SATURDAY NIGHT ROUNDING THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE WOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION...WITH SOME SORT OF MCS SATURDAY
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE MUCH STRONGER...WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVING INTO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN REGION EARLY ON
SUNDAY.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE WEEK...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
MON-TUE TIME FRAME...WITH AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWERS/STORMS.
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...A GRADUAL FLATTENING OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED.
PRECIP CHANCES MAY DECREASE FOR MID-WEEK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER FORCING...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WARMING BACK UP BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH AND THEN INCREASING BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE
20 KTS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SETTLING DOWN OF WINDS AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
THE RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME PRECIP ENTERING THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 12Z. STILL NOT SURE THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE AT THAT POINT...BUT WITH A FEW BLIPS
BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS IN
OUR SOUTH FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP IN
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEAR DAWN. THINK THAT IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE
BIT TO SATURATE DOWN TO THE SFC...SO KEPT THINGS DRY FOR NOW AND
WILL REEVALUATE IN A FEW HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
NO CHANGES OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN QUIET...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING LATER ON FRIDAY. 12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH ANY INDIVIDUAL
SOLUTION.
THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ACROSS WESTERN IDAHO THAT WILL RIDE OVER
THE RIDGE...AND BRING WEAK FORCING TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP TONIGHT...AND SHOULD ADVECT IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE 850MB WIND SHIFT. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT STORMS WILL
INITIALIZE TO THE WEST...THEN MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SHIFTING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN SCATTERED CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND SPC INDICATES A 5%
PROBABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
BORDERLINE (@30 KNOTS)...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY DEPEND
ON ACTUAL INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WARM 900MB-700MB TEMPERATURES WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A STRONG CAP
WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO PLENTY OF SOLAR...WITH VERY WARM MAX TEMPS EXPECTED.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS MOST MODELS
INDICATE DEW POINT VALUES INTO THE LOW 70S (WHICH IS POSSIBLE WITH
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION BECOMING STRONGER). THERE IS...AND HAS BEEN...A
SIGNAL AMONG MOST MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT ROUNDING THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE WOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION...WITH SOME SORT OF MCS
SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE MUCH STRONGER...WITH
THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SPC INDICATES A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN REGION (ON THE EDGE
OF THE CAP) FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
ON SUNDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY...BUT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON WITH COLDER UPPER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.
NET RESULT WILL BE ILL-TIMED SHORT WAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. COMBINED WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN THE PERIOD ANY SHORT
WAVE COULD CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE KEPT THE
20-30 POPS IN THERE FROM THE BLEND OF THE MODELS AS EACH RUN AND
EACH MODEL AS DIFFERENT ONES. OVERALL THOUGH 12Z GFS WETTER THAN
12Z ECMWF/GEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH AND THEN INCREASING BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE
20 KTS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SETTLING DOWN OF WINDS AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.AVIATION...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. SOME CONVECTION IN SW KS
MAY MAKE A RUN AT NORTHWEST OK... BUT CHANCE OF IMPACTING TAF SITES
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME. OTHER CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS
POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOING IN I-44
CORRIDOR AFTER 06Z. HAVE INTRO SOME MID CLOUDS... BUT HAVE LEFT OUT
PRECIP AS AGAIN CHANCES ARE MINIMAL. EXPECT SFC WINDS TO GUST OVER
20KTS DURING THE DAY MOST SITES.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014/
.DISCUSSION...
HOT SUMMER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THERE WILL BE LOW RAIN CHANCES AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WIDESPREAD RAINS REMAIN UNLIKELY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 9 PM
THIS EVENING NEAR AND ALONG AN ENHANCED AREA OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF I-35 WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES AND MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE
TO NO CIN. LATEST HRRR RUNS DEPICTED THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR
NOW...DID NOT INCLUDE RAIN IN THE FORECAST AS COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 10 PERCENT. ANY SHOWER OR STORM WOULD BE PULSE IN
NATURE...MOVE VERY SLOWLY...AND PERHAPS PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS AND DOWNPOURS. NOT SURE THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE DUE TO THE
LACK OF LIFT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET.
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR A WEAK
MID/UPPER TROUGH MAY MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AFTER 7 PM. WITHOUT A
STRONG TRIGGER FOR LIFT...LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TO 10 PERCENT AND
WENT WITH ISOLATED MENTION NORTH OF A CHEYENNE TO BLACKWELL LINE.
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
POORLY ORGANIZED STORMS AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN.
LATE TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME INDICATION WEAK ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR NORTH OF A VERNON TEXAS TO ADA LINE...BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION AS CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE A BIT HOTTER COMPARED TO TODAY
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN. STORM CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO
MENTION. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 95 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE BOTH DAYS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...REACHING NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY. ADDED LOW RAIN
CHANCES...AROUND 20 PERCENT...TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR
THE FRONT...THEN KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD
RAINS OR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH
A FEW STORMS MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND RAINFREE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 94 72 96 / 10 10 10 0
HOBART OK 71 97 71 101 / 10 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 97 73 99 / 10 10 10 0
GAGE OK 71 97 71 100 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 96 74 99 / 10 10 0 0
DURANT OK 71 94 73 97 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
244 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF OUR NORTH TEXAS
COUNTIES AND THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN HIGH-RES MODELS OF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING THERE. RAP SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD QPF
SIGNALS... AND ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION... IT
APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN PHILOSOPHY FOR
THE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK THEN SOME LOW POPS NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE
FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 91 71 94 / 10 10 10 10
HOBART OK 68 93 70 97 / 10 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 93 72 96 / 20 10 10 10
GAGE OK 68 93 69 97 / 10 10 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 71 91 73 97 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 70 93 71 95 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
624 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR expected for the next 24 hours. May see just a few stratus
make it into the Northwest Hill Country and JCT area...but clouds
should be brief. Left a scattered group of low clouds in for a few
hours around sunrise. Otherwise...light southeast winds overnight
will pick up to 10 to 15 kts tomorrow more out of the south. No
significant aviation weather expected.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)
Cumulus development was more extensive over West Central Texas than
yesterday. While the 17Z HRRR model reflectivity did indicated
isolated shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon, cumulus
at 3 PM had limited vertical extent, and expect dry conditions this
evening.
Dry conditions continue Sunday as upper ridging holds over the
region. Will maintain a persistence forecast, with lows in the lower
70s and highs in the mid 90s.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Warm and dry conditions will continue across West Central Texas
through next week. The center of the upper high will remain over the
four corners region through midweek, then flatten and expand east
across the Southern Plains through next Saturday. Models still show a
weak TUTT moving into extreme south Texas and far northeastern Mexico
by Wednesday. This feature will remain nearly stationary across this
area through Thursday, then drift slowly west across Northern Mexico
by early next weekend. About the only noticeable effect from the
TUTT will be an increase in some diurnal cumulus by mid to late
week. Temperatures through the extended period will remain at or
slightly above seasonal normals for this time of year.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 72 94 71 96 72 / 5 5 5 5 5
San Angelo 72 95 69 96 72 / 5 5 5 5 5
Junction 69 94 70 95 70 / 5 5 5 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
335 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS TO PERSIST ANOTHER DAY
ACROSS THE FA BUT MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHICH IS ENOUGH TO PUMP OUT 1500-2000 J/KG OF
SURFACE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MINIMAL TO NO CAPPING. A NORTH-
SOUTH AXIS OF WEAKLY HIGHER THETA-E/MIXING RATIO VALUES WAS
OBSERVED IN RAP FORECAST FIELDS BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME
CONVECTION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT AND THERE IS STILL LITTLE TO NO FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. BASES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS IN THE LOWER 90S. RISING
HEIGHTS...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AND LESS MOISTURE WILL
ACT TO QUELL ANY LOW LEVEL EFFECTS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
A REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR SATURDAY
MORNING BUT SOME STRATUS MAY TRY TO EDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY
GIVING LESS CHANCES OF MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION REACHING THE FA.
HOWEVER A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER TOMORROW EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...
OTHER THAN THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF SOME STORMS TOMORROW EVENING...
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. BEST POPS
APPEAR TO STAY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SO KEPT BARELY SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. PAST THAT...RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED WEST TO NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WHICH KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHTS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT THROUGH THE FORECAST
WHICH MEANS TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DECENT MOISTURE LEVELS
REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 700
HPA WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP TOO
MUCH.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 89 64 92 67 / 10 10 20 0 10
TULIA 64 89 65 93 68 / 10 10 10 0 10
PLAINVIEW 66 89 66 92 68 / 10 0 10 0 0
LEVELLAND 67 91 67 92 69 / 10 0 10 0 0
LUBBOCK 68 91 67 93 69 / 10 0 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 66 92 67 92 69 / 0 0 10 0 0
BROWNFIELD 67 92 67 92 70 / 10 0 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 69 93 71 96 73 / 20 10 10 0 10
SPUR 69 92 68 95 70 / 20 0 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 71 93 71 97 73 / 20 0 10 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
412 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
320 AM CDT
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO CENTER ON THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
THINGS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ARE VWP AND PROFILER DATA INDICATES THE THE FLOW AT 850
MB IS NEARLY DUE WEST...AND AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THIS...WE ARE NOW
BEGINNING TO SET UP SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS EVEN INDICATED A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND
INTO MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON
AS THIS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THIS WOULD BE A LOW PROBABILITY. CLOUD COVER
FROM THUNDERSTORM CLOUD DEBRIS TO THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR AT LEAST MUCH OF THE MORNING TODAY...WHICH COULD
LIMIT INSOLATION...MAKING THE THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LESS LIKELY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THE HI
RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS MAY BE OVERDONE WITH THERE
SUGGESTION OF ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF ACTIVITY SET TO ARRIVE ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...I HAVE
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SMALL POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY FIRING THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WITH A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS SHIFTING OVER THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF
THIS APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AT LEAST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED...DESPITE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIMITED
INSOLATION TODAY. MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ARE
EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THANKS IN PART TO THE ARRIVAL OF
A CORRIDOR OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (700-500 MB
~7C/KM)...SAMPLED BY THE 00 UTC RAOBS RUNNING FROM THE PLAINS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.
IF THE AREA DOES REMAINED CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE COMPLEMENTED BY MODEST MID/UPPER LEVEL
HIGH FALLS...AND HENCE COOLING...ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A MODEST 30 TO
35 KT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP AT 500 MB
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SUPER CELLS AND BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY MODE OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING AS STORMS WILL
LIKELY ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A LOW END
THREAT OF A TORNADO EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO WISCONSIN. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF
20-25 KT IS EXPECTED AS THE FLOW AROUND 2-3000 FT BEGINS TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS
AND LOW LEVEL CAPE COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A SHORT WINDOW OF A
TORNADO THREAT.
THE LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT MOST AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN 00 AND 04 UTC. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE STORMS
SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL TOTALS IN ANY GIVEN AREA. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
IT PROGRESSES TOWARDS MY SOUTHERN CWA. SO THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES IS A BIT UNCERTAIN.
IT APPEARS THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON MONDAY...AS
WE AWAIT THE NEXT SYSTEM. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VERY WARM AND HUMID ACROSS THE AREA...IN SPITE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. UNDER WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...TEMPERATURES COULD
AGAIN END UP IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
AN AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORES OF INDIANA AND
COOK COUNTY...GIVEN THE WEAKENING SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS THERE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT DECENT THREAT FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER...MORE ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY. THIS COULD SET UP ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY GIVEN SOME
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEER. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BIGGER
SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE. THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED THOUGH...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD
OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES THE AREA ON TUESDAY...IT STILL APPEARS
THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN FOR A COUPLE DAYS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. COOL HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA...SETTING UP A FEW COOLER AND DRIER DAYS.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SUNDAY
* PERIOD OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY LATER SUNDAY EVENING
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
VFR OVC WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPILL EAST INTO THE AREA. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY SUNDAY WHICH SEVERAL MODELS KEY IN ON TO
KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SEVERAL
OTHER MODELS SUGGEST A CAP WILL PREVENT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE DAY
WITH THREAT CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN
THE STRONGLY CONFLICTING MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE THREAT OF
TSRA DURING THE DAY...HAVE OPTED TO JUST INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW WHILE CONTINUING THE TEMPO DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE
HIGHER THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE GUSTINESS LIKELY TO HINGE ON THE EXTENT
OF CLOUD COVER AND SHRA/TSRA.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS TONIGHT.
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON TSRA THREAT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND/GUST SPEEDS SUNDAY
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA SUNDAY EVENING
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSTMS MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF TSTMS CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS.
THURSDAY...NONE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSTMS.
2%
&&
.MARINE...
325 AM CDT
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON SPEEDS WHICH COULD BE REASONABLE
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER LIMITING HEATING A BIT. CONFIDENCE
IS PRETTY LOW IN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO NOT PLANNING
ANY CHANGES TO GOING HEADLINES. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR WESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN WED/THUR RESULTING IN LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
DOMINATING WIND FLOW.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...2 PM SUNDAY TO 4
AM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...2 PM SUNDAY TO 10
PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
331 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 320 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night
00Z models continue an unsettled weather pattern through Tuesday
but differ with their qpf fields and with MCS activity. Models
continue to trend faster with cold frontal passage getting south
of central IL Tue night. Daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms through Tue in tropical airmass with dewpoints in
the upper 60s and lower 70s and highs in the upper 80s today and
Monday. SPC has slight risk of severe storms this evening along
and nw of a Springfield to Rantoul line with highest chances of
severe storms later this afternoon into the evening over northern
IL, eastern IA and southern WI where stronger shear is. Most of
central and southeast IL is in a slight risk of severe storms on
Monday night with another MCS moving se into IL and this one
should have more widespread heavier rain. Cold front to pass se
through central IL Tue and continue good chances of showers and
thunderstorms and highest chances shifting into southeast IL Tue
afternoon/evening. SPC has slight risk of severe storms se of
central/se IL Tuesday where airmass is more unstable. Highs Tue in
the low to mid 80s with muggy dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower
70s still.
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday night.
Quieter weather returns to IL Wed/Thu as weak high pressure
settles into the Midwest with somewhat less humid air and highs 80
to 85F. High pressure shifts into the eastern Great Lakes region
during Friday and New England Sat with return southerly flow
setting back up over IL. This to bring increase warmth and
humidity along with isolated showers and thunderstorms from Friday
into Sat night.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1159 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
The MCV will trigger showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly
east of a line from Champaign to Taylorville through 08z-09z
tonight. However, additional shower development behind the wave
will extend across our northern terminals of PIA and BMI the rest
of the night. Radar returns are already showing up behind the wave
all the way to Galesburg. Thunder will be isolated, and may not
get within 5 miles of any terminal site overnight. Better chances
of thunder will come later Sunday afternoon and evening with the
next shortwave, which will be able to tap better instability. The
latest HRRR and 4km NCEP WRF continue to indicate spotty
showers/storms across the northern half of our forecast area the
rest of tonight. Will keep VCSH for PIA and BMI through morning. Have
continued to include VCTS for Sunday afternoon and evening for all
terminal sites.
Kept VFR throughout the forecast, but MVFR will be possible in
heavier rains.
Winds will remain southerly overnight, then shift to the S-SW Sunday
morning as speeds increase to 12G20kt. Winds will diminish below
10kt with sunset Sun eve, remaining SW.
Shimon
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1256 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
852 PM CDT
LOW CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
GENERATING LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN BASED ON
RECENT OBS. EVEN THE LIGHTEST RADAR RETURNS ARE PRODUCING ENOUGH
RAIN TO WET THE GROUND ACROSS MOST OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA WITH
THE STEADIER LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. MOVEMENT
CONTINUES TO BE SWIFT SO ACTIVITY WILL BE WINDING DOWN THROUGH
LATE EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST
AT THIS POINT WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE CURRENT WAVE
AND THE LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSING ACROSS MISSOURI AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IOWA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...INCREASING MOIST
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT AND LOW
CHANCE POPS...WITH NOTHING COHERENT TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE AT THIS
TIME.
MDB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
228 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY ARE DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES
THROUGH MIDWEEK...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT MCV CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE RIVER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
OUTRUNS THE INSTABILITY TO THE WEST AND ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR. HAVE
DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY IN OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AREA POSSIBLY FESTERING...BUT QPF
VALUES SHOULD BE LOW. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND CENTRAL/DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS TODAY.
LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...VERY MODEST INSTABILITY
STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. GFS INDICATES MUCAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 500 J/KG BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW OVER THE CHICAGO
AREA WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER VALUES TO THE WEST. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT HOWEVER THERE IS AN AREA
OF MODERATE LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GIVEN THE INCREASING INSTABILITY. THERE IS NO CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...
UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
WITH H85 THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD LAYING OUT ACROSS THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES PUSH 20C SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
SURFACE TEMPS PUSHING THE 90 MARK DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND ANY
LINGERING MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
ALSO ADVECT DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 70 INTO THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
TRY TO GENERATE CONVECTION EARLY IN THE DAY SUNDAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES GROWING TO IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...HOWEVER SYNOPTICALLY WE
SEEM TO BE IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR THE CAP TO HOLD MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT TENDENCIES
FAIRLY NEUTRAL. AS THE SURFACE FRONT AND BETTER MID LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS START TO APPROACH THE AREA IN THE EVENING...CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT DESPITE FALLING A
LITTLE BEYOND THE MOST FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING. IN ADDITION...PWATS
OF AROUND 2 INCHES POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS SO WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MONITOR HYDRO CONDITIONS
CLOSELY OVERNIGHT TOO.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
MIDLEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLING TO OUR SOUTH BY TUESDAY. CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE BEST SOUTHEAST OF I-57 MONDAY WHERE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH...THEN BY
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE AS COOLER
MID LEVEL AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES DEVELOPING AND MOST MODELS INDICATING A SHEARED VORT MAX
DIGGING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE JET STREAM SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA...FOR NOW AT LEAST IT APPEARS THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
EACH DAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN FLATTENING OUT AGAIN. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD AND SHOULD PROVIDE QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK WITH RETURN FLOW BACK INTO THE AREA STARTING AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY BUT GFS IS MUCH QUICKER BRINGING THE THERMAL RIDGE BACK
OVER THE AREA AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...SO GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES OPTED TO MAINTAIN GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SUNDAY
* PERIOD OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY LATER SUNDAY EVENING
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
VFR OVC WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPILL EAST INTO THE AREA. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY SUNDAY WHICH SEVERAL MODELS KEY IN ON TO
KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SEVERAL
OTHER MODELS SUGGEST A CAP WILL PREVENT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE DAY
WITH THREAT CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN
THE STRONGLY CONFLICTING MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE THREAT OF
TSRA DURING THE DAY...HAVE OPTED TO JUST INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW WHILE CONTINUING THE TEMPO DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE
HIGHER THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE GUSTINESS LIKELY TO HINGE ON THE EXTENT
OF CLOUD COVER AND SHRA/TSRA.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS TONIGHT.
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON TSRA THREAT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND/GUST SPEEDS SUNDAY
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA SUNDAY EVENING
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSTMS MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF TSTMS CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS.
THURSDAY...NONE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSTMS.
2%
&&
.MARINE...
206 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ACROSS ALL OF THE OPEN
WATERS TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. MAY
SEE WINDS GET TO CLOSE TO 30 KT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...BUT THINKING THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE STABLE ENOUGH TO KEEP
HIGHER WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ISSUED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVSY LASTING 6 HOURS LONGER OVER NW INDIANA AS SW
WINDS 20-25 KT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING THERE. THE LOW
PASSES OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT WITH ITS
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH
AND BECOME W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH AT LEAST MID LAKE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING N TO NE BEHIND IT. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY AND WINDS BECOME NW. GUIDANCE THEN
DIFFERS GREATLY ON THE PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. IN GENERAL
LOOKING AT LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE LATE NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO PERIODS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...2 PM SUNDAY TO 4
AM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...2 PM SUNDAY TO 10
PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1159 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
A well-defined MCV continues to make progress across IL, with
showers expanding farther south and east with time. The back edge
of the precip is about to reach the IL river, while the leading
edge has reached a line from just north of Springfield to near
Champaign. Have increased PoPs to likely the rest of the evening
following the projected path of the wave. After midnight, the HRRR
and 4km WRF still indicate some redevelopment of showers and
possibly a thunderstorm along a line from W-E across central IL.
That convection timing is a bit uncertain, even at this late hour,
so we will continue with chance PoPs after midnight north of I-72.
Clouds will likely prevail overnight, which will help to keep low
temps slightly warmer than under clear conditions. The low temp
forecast appears reasonable, so will continue with low to mid 60s.
Showers and storms are expected to redevelop late Sunday afternoon
or evening as the next significant shortwave moves across IL.
Instability params look favorable for a few strong to severe
storms Sunday night.
Main updates tonight were in the weather and PoP grids to match
expected trends.
Shimon
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1159 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
The MCV will trigger showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly
east of a line from Champaign to Taylorville through 08z-09z
tonight. However, additional shower development behind the wave
will extend across our northern terminals of PIA and BMI the rest
of the night. Radar returns are already showing up behind the wave
all the way to Galesburg. Thunder will be isolated, and may not
get within 5 miles of any terminal site overnight. Better chances
of thunder will come later Sunday afternoon and evening with the
next shortwave, which will be able to tap better instability. The
latest HRRR and 4km NCEP WRF continue to indicate spotty
showers/storms across the northern half of our forecast area the
rest of tonight. Will keep VCSH for PIA and BMI through morning. Have
continued to include VCTS for Sunday afternoon and evening for all
terminal sites.
Kept VFR throughout the forecast, but MVFR will be possible in
heavier rains.
Winds will remain southerly overnight, then shift to the S-SW Sunday
morning as speeds increase to 12G20kt. Winds will diminish below
10kt with sunset Sun eve, remaining SW.
Shimon
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
Models continue to look similar with overall upper level pattern
and surface features. However, they still differ on the
smaller/mesoscale features, which affect where and when pcpn will
occur. So took a blend and tried to make adjustments with location
and timing of pops in the short term, based on general synoptic
feature forecast; and to stay in sync with surrounding offices.
Main concerns will be chance pops through the forecast period,
along with temps next couple of days.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night
Remnants of last night`s MCS is finally diminishing, as the HRRR
model forecasted earlier this morning. Associated MCV will
continue to move east over northern IL this evening, but will
likely not do much as it will be moving into drier air. However,
will be keeping chance pops in the area this evening and overnight
as any leftover outflow boundaries could still produce some
showers and thunderstorms. Area covered will be in the north and
central, leaving the southeast dry. Another MCS is expected to
develop late tonight back west where the boundary and best
moisture is located at. This MCS is expected to move toward the
area late tonight and into the area tomorrow. So will be keeping
chc pops in the north and central parts of the cwa tomorrow. The
outflow boundary from this MCS should have higher dewpoint air to
work with in the area, so will have little higher pops for
tomorrow night in the area, covering all the cwa. The chance of
pcpn will continue Mon and Mon night as boundaries and moisture
will still remain around the area. The front will also be getting
closer to the cwa Mon night, but really get into the area for Tue
and Tue night. This will bring likely pops into the cwa for the
whole area sometime between Tue and Tue night. As the front moves
through the area Tue night, pcpn chances will diminish to the
northwest.
Temps will be quite warm the next two days as the cwa will remain
in the warm sector. Moisture will also be on the increase, so
conditions will be humid/muggy at times; typical for July summer
in central Illinois.
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday
After the front passes Tue night, conditions will be dry the
remainder of the week. Long term models show some pcpn coming back
into the area from the west late in the week and into the weekend,
but not confident with that forecast at the moment. So will opt to
keep what the consensus models show for now. Later adjustments are
likely with this type of pattern in the summer.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1125 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
UPDATE ON ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY FOR DELETION OF THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATED TO ADJUST THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS NOT FORMING ON THE OUTFLOW AS
EXPECTED...SO LOWERED POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MCV/MCS CURRENTLY EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD BACK BUT ARE RECOVERING ACROSS THE
WEST. WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN MO THIS MORNING HAS BEEN REINFORCED
BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MESOSCALE SYSTEM...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTH DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. MODELS AT ODDS ABOUT
CONVECTION COVERAGE TONIGHT...BUT HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THROUGH IOWA OVERNIGHT. WEAKEST PORTION OF THE H700 CAP FAVORS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HRRR REFLECTS SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH
A BAND OF STORMS FORMING AFT 04Z NEAR I80 CORRIDOR...VARIOUS OTHER
SOLUTIONS ALSO FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EAST OR ALONG THE
IOWA/MO BORDER BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND IMPINGES ALONG THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WILL
INCREASE POPS AGAIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE EAST AND
SOUTH...WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SUGGEST SOME SOUTHEASTERLY DRIFT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...IF CONVECTION GETS A
BIT MORE ORGANIZED COULD SEE A QUICK INCH OR TWO TOTAL FROM ANY
STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS PUSHING 13-14KFT
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL RUNNING 1.5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED. AFTER LAST NIGHTS/THIS MORNING RAINFALL... GRIDDED
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS LOWERED TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER A GOOD
SHARE OF THE SOUTH WITH 3 HOURLY GUIDANCE NEARING 2 INCHES OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS. THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER COUNTIES CONTINUE
HIGHER...WITH 2 INCH VALUES FOR 1 HOUR AND 2 TO 3 INCH VALUES FOR
3 HOUR GUIDANCE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...NOT MUCH CAPACITY LEFT IN SOIL
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOWS WILL CREEP UP
TONIGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF MUCH SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN WITH
THE RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE RATHER ACTIVE WX AND AN
OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN OF WESTERLIES INVOF OF IOWA...EVOLVING
FROM BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW TO BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.
MAIN CHALLENGES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE TSRA CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE AS WELL AS LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH
IOWA SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
SUMMER-LIKE...WITH THERMAL RIDGING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
RESULTING IN SEASONALLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S
ARE EXPECTED. AN IMPULSE WILL SWEEP A COOL FRONT INTO THE STATE
ON SUNDAY. QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST ALONG THE FRONT WILL THE TSRA
DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
RESPECTABLE...CAPPING WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE WEST ACROSS THE
STATE. BEST CHANCES OF TSRA WILL BE IN EASTERN IOWA...WHERE THE
CAP WILL BE WEAKER AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE STRONGER. LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY LATE EVENING...SO
HAVE BROUGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE STAGE BY
THAT TIME. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY INVOF THE
IA-MO BORDER BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF TSRA BY LATE
MON. BOTH THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING WILL BE STRONGER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE ONE ON LATE SUN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH ANOTHER COOL FRONT SOUTH THROUGH IOWA...EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY INVOF THE IA-MO BORDER. AMPLE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
SFC-BASED TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST A FEW
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING.
AFTER THE FROPA MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING...CYCLONIC WESTERLIES
WILL DOMINATE THE WX INTO LATER IN THE WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN
WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK IMPULSE PASSES
OVER THE REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
BRINGING ANOTHER BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z RUN
WAS CONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD WITH THE 00Z RUN. THIS SOLUTION IS
ADMITTEDLY DIFFERENT THAN LAST NIGHT/S LONG TERM PACKAGE WHICH
KEPT THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE CWA. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE CWA TO END THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...06/06Z
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
COLD FRONT FROM NERN ND INTO CO WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO IA SUN
AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TWO FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE THE STRATUS TONIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW. WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN
STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
LIFTING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 18Z AND MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
FRONT. TRIED TO TIME THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THUS THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
BECOME STATIONARY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREAS
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS TO THE STATE
WED AND THU.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MS JUL 14
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...MS JUL 14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1117 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATED TO ADJUST THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS NOT FORMING ON THE OUTFLOW AS
EXPECTED...SO LOWERED POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MCV/MCS CURRENTLY EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD BACK BUT ARE RECOVERING ACROSS THE
WEST. WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN MO THIS MORNING HAS BEEN REINFORCED
BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MESOSCALE SYSTEM...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTH DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. MODELS AT ODDS ABOUT
CONVECTION COVERAGE TONIGHT...BUT HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THROUGH IOWA OVERNIGHT. WEAKEST PORTION OF THE H700 CAP FAVORS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HRRR REFLECTS SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH
A BAND OF STORMS FORMING AFT 04Z NEAR I80 CORRIDOR...VARIOUS OTHER
SOLUTIONS ALSO FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EAST OR ALONG THE
IOWA/MO BORDER BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND IMPINGES ALONG THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WILL
INCREASE POPS AGAIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE EAST AND
SOUTH...WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SUGGEST SOME SOUTHEASTERLY DRIFT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...IF CONVECTION GETS A
BIT MORE ORGANIZED COULD SEE A QUICK INCH OR TWO TOTAL FROM ANY
STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS PUSHING 13-14KFT
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL RUNNING 1.5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED. AFTER LAST NIGHTS/THIS MORNING RAINFALL... GRIDDED
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS LOWERED TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER A GOOD
SHARE OF THE SOUTH WITH 3 HOURLY GUIDANCE NEARING 2 INCHES OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS. THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER COUNTIES CONTINUE
HIGHER...WITH 2 INCH VALUES FOR 1 HOUR AND 2 TO 3 INCH VALUES FOR
3 HOUR GUIDANCE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...NOT MUCH CAPACITY LEFT IN SOIL
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOWS WILL CREEP UP
TONIGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF MUCH SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN WITH
THE RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE RATHER ACTIVE WX AND AN
OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN OF WESTERLIES INVOF OF IOWA...EVOLVING
FROM BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW TO BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.
MAIN CHALLENGES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE TSRA CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE AS WELL AS LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH
IOWA SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
SUMMER-LIKE...WITH THERMAL RIDGING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
RESULTING IN SEASONALLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S
ARE EXPECTED. AN IMPULSE WILL SWEEP A COOL FRONT INTO THE STATE
ON SUNDAY. QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST ALONG THE FRONT WILL THE TSRA
DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
RESPECTABLE...CAPPING WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE WEST ACROSS THE
STATE. BEST CHANCES OF TSRA WILL BE IN EASTERN IOWA...WHERE THE
CAP WILL BE WEAKER AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE STRONGER. LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY LATE EVENING...SO
HAVE BROUGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE STAGE BY
THAT TIME. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY INVOF THE
IA-MO BORDER BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF TSRA BY LATE
MON. BOTH THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING WILL BE STRONGER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE ONE ON LATE SUN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH ANOTHER COOL FRONT SOUTH THROUGH IOWA...EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY INVOF THE IA-MO BORDER. AMPLE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
SFC-BASED TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST A FEW
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING.
AFTER THE FROPA MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING...CYCLONIC WESTERLIES
WILL DOMINATE THE WX INTO LATER IN THE WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN
WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK IMPULSE PASSES
OVER THE REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
BRINGING ANOTHER BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z RUN
WAS CONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD WITH THE 00Z RUN. THIS SOLUTION IS
ADMITTEDLY DIFFERENT THAN LAST NIGHT/S LONG TERM PACKAGE WHICH
KEPT THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE CWA. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE CWA TO END THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...06/06Z
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
COLD FRONT FROM NERN ND INTO CO WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO IA SUN
AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TWO FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE THE STRATUS TONIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW. WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN
STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
LIFTING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 18Z AND MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
FRONT. TRIED TO TIME THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THUS THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
BECOME STATIONARY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREAS
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS TO THE STATE
WED AND THU.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MS JUL 14
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...MS JUL 14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1152 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
...Updated for 06Z Aviation Forecast...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
Short term models (HRRR, RAP13) continue to try to develop
convection over eastern Kansas this evening, and it continues to
not develop to this point. New NAM not as aggressive as previous
two runs, but still has spotty precip and more persistent precip
in east central KS through tonight. Water vapor imagery showing
one mid- level shortwave trough move southeastward across central
and eastern KS, and weak subsidence behind it may be helping to
suppress evening convection in KS. Models do have postive theta-e
advection in the 850 to 700 mb layer for later this evening
through 1 AM, so have not removed POPs from eastern KS, but have
dropped them for north central KS for tonight. Any thunderstorms
that do form will obviously have the potential for heavy rain with
precipitable water values near 2" and decent moisture transport
evident at 850 mb.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
Forecast today quickly challenged with mesoscale conditions as
convective complex moved across eastern Nebraska in the early
morning hours. An outflow boundary then moved southwest into
northeast Kansas, through about Topeka to just east of Marysville.
As southwesterly surface winds have strengthened through the day,
they have worked to counter slightly reinforced outflow and push
this boundary back to the north. Little progress was made on the
east end, and appears as though the incoming upper shortwave
evident on WV imagery will move across this boundary for the
remainder of the afternoon and evening hours.
While shear is not ideal, and high surface dewpoints not conducive
for a high end wind threat, there is enough instability
(2000-3000J/kg range) to consider hail and possibly locally heavy
rainfall a threat if these storms develop and move through.
Forecast is certainly probabilistic - GFS confines convection more
east, as does the EC, although the EC is slower with its exit
through the morning on Sunday. The HRRR and NAM extend area of
convection farther westward from NE KS and drop cluster of precip
south southeast across the area through the evening hours. Have
played the forecast toward the latter, although kept coverage
isolated in nature as it passes through. Can`t rule out a bust with
precip, especially as you go west, but do think the far eastern
counties will see hit and miss showers and thunderstorms as the
evening goes on.
Heat returns on Sunday as mid level temperatures climb under the
shortwave ridge behind the departing shortwave trof. Have highs in
the 90s with heat indices coming out in the 99-103 range as the
dewpoints hold around 70 east to the 60s west...however western
counties are hotter so in the end heat index differences are subtle
at best.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
By Sunday evening the cold front dips southward from central NE,
straddling the KS and NE border near 00Z. The main upper trough
positioned to our north and east at this time has given guidance
lower confidence in precip developing near the weakly convergent
frontal boundary until after midnight. Northern areas of the CWA
have a slight chance for thunderstorms while most of the CWA
remains dry.
Monday afternoon will be another hot and humid day as the surface
trough over western KS deepens, increasing southwesterly flow and
mixing of warmer air aloft. Highs once again in the mid to upper 90s
are likely with heat indices between 100 and 103 degrees. A more
potent shortwave trough digs southward through the plains on Monday
evening, shunting the cold front through the CWA by 18Z Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the Nebraska and
northwest MO border, decreasing to a chance further south as the
heavier precip bands follow the upper trough axis centered over
central/northern MO. Wind shear through 6 KM increases overnight
with the passing wave between 30 and 40 kts while MLCAPE is around
1500 J/KG. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out, especially if
they redevelop or are able to become sfc based in the afternoon.
Winds shift back towards the south with another incoming upper wave
expected Wednesday evening. Trends show the heavier precip bands to
impact mainly north central and portions of central KS where highest
pops were placed. Precipitation will wane as it lifts northeast
through Thursday, replaced by temporary ridging on Friday. Saturday
begins the unsettled pattern once again as northwest flow begins
to bring another series of weak disturbances through the region.
Highs behind the boundary Tuesday through Thursday will cool back to
the 80s with lows in the upper 60s. Increased warm advection Friday
and Saturday, raise temps once again to the 90s accompanied by lows
in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
Expect VFR conditions through Sunday. With high pressure over Gulf
Coast and low pressure over western KS, expect southerly flow to
continue. Winds on Sunday should be weaker/less gusty than those
on Saturday. Cannot completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm
in eastern KS the rest of tonight, but confidence is low and
chances of occurring at FOE or TOP also low. Thus, have not added
to TAF.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GDP
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...GDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
409 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO
THE NRN PLAINS AND A DOWNSTREAM WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO(NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR)
COMBINED WITH 25-30 KNOT 850-750 MB INFLOW OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR (MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 40 KNOT 0-6KM SHEAR
SUPPORTED STRONG CONVECTION OVER NE MN AND ADJOINING PORTION OF
ONTARIO. SOME SHRA/TSRA WERE ALSO SLIDING INTO LAKE SUPERIOR BUT
WERE WEAKENING AS THE CONVECTION MOVED AWAY FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE
AIR. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE AND SSW FLOW WAA PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE ONGOING SHRA/TSRA INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY SLIDE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NRN
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...PER RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANG HIGH RES
MODELS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM LATE
THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS MUCH HIGHER WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF MCS DEVELOPMENT AND ITS EVENTUAL TRACK. EXPECT THAT THE HIGHER
SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF UPPER MI BUT THAT
SOME MAY MOVE INTO UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WITH ONLY
LIMITED MUCAPE INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...ANY TSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
SUNDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER SHRTWV AND COLD FRONT MOVE TOWARD THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THAT
DEPENDS ON THE AMOUNT OF THICKER CLOUDS THAT LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH CLEARING DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS TO ALLOW TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 80S(DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S)...MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K RANGE COMBINED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 35-40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE ORGANIZED STORMS. 0-1KM
HELICITY/SHAPE IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS/SUPERCELLS.
IF MORE PROMINENT CLOUDS REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE GREATER
INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAINLY OVER WI AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE FAR SRN CWA. NMRS SHRA/TSRA OVER CNTRL UPPER MI DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE S AND ERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY TAKE OVER ON MONDAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT INITIALLY STRETCHING FROM THE LOW NEARING THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER THROUGH THE N MN BORDER AT 12Z MONDAY WILL
SLOWLY EDGE E...AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL LINGER...AND CONTINUE TO BRING ABOUT
SEVERAL SMALL DISTURBANCES. UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH OFF AND ON
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS IN THE 60S TO
MID 70S WILL BE COMMON...WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION.... CURRENTLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
GOING...BUT SOME GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A
BIT MORE OVER THE S HALF OF UPPER MI /CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW BRUSHING
THE CWA/. ONLY EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE WELL TO OUR S.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR N ONTARIO TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL SINK OVER N LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE 06/00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND DOESN/T
REALLY HAVE THIS FEATURE AT THE SFC IT STILL HAS THE MAIN 500MB
TROUGH DIVING IN ALOFT. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...POPS WHERE KEPT IN
THE CHANCE OR BELOW RANGE.
AT THIS TIME...DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES TO THE 500MB
TROUGH...AND HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS E. THE ECMWF IS THE QUICKEST TO
BRING BACK RIDGING AT 500MB...WITH THE CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEPING A
TROUGH ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE CWA INTO FRIDAY. A BLENDED SOLUTION
LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND
WHEN THEY DO...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS
STARTING FIRST AT IWD AND LAST AT SAW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO MONDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONG
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS/. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS N MINNESOTA AND W
ONTARIO WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND N LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...BEFORE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY. BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT...AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SINK
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
131 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO
THE NRN PLAINS AND A DOWNSTREAM WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO(NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR)
COMBINED WITH 25-30 KNOT 850-750 MB INFLOW OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR (MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 40 KNOT 0-6KM SHEAR
SUPPORTED STRONG CONVECTION OVER NE MN AND ADJOINING PORTION OF
ONTARIO. SOME SHRA/TSRA WERE ALSO SLIDING INTO LAKE SUPERIOR BUT
WERE WEAKENING AS THE CONVECTION MOVED AWAY FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE
AIR. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE AND SSW FLOW WAA PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE ONGOING SHRA/TSRA INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY SLIDE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NRN
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...PER RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANG HIGH RES
MODELS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM LATE
THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS MUCH HIGHER WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF MCS DEVELOPMENT AND ITS EVENTUAL TRACK. EXPECT THAT THE HIGHER
SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF UPPER MI BUT THAT
SOME MAY MOVE INTO UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WITH ONLY
LIMITED MUCAPE INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...ANY TSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
SUNDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER SHRTWV AND COLD FRONT MOVE TOWARD THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THAT
DEPENDS ON THE AMOUNT OF THICKER CLOUDS THAT LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH CLEARING DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS TO ALLOW TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 80S(DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S)...MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K RANGE COMBINED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 35-40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE ORGANIZED STORMS. 0-1KM
HELICITY/SHAPE IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS/SUPERCELLS.
IF MORE PROMINENT CLOUDS REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE GREATER
INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAINLY OVER WI AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE FAR SRN CWA. NMRS SHRA/TSRA OVER CNTRL UPPER MI DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE S AND ERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND SFC LOW WILL BE JUST N OF THE CWA WITH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA AT 00Z MON.
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY SEVERE /SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE
DETAILS ON SEVERE THREAT/...WILL BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. BY 06Z MON...THE FRONT
WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE ERN CWA...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION E OF
THE CWA.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO MOVE N OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY ON MON...BUT FORCING WILL STAY N KEEPING THE CWA DRY FOR THE
MOST PART. THE NAM IS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN MON
EVENING...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN PRECIP LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN
CWA...BUT MOST OTHER MODELS SHOW THIS COMING IN MON NIGHT OR EVEN
EARLY TUE. AS IS USUAL WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS IS QUITE LOW THIS
FAR OUT.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MON NIGHT OR TUE...WHICH
APPEARS TO STAY S OF THE CWA. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO
MOVE OVER THE NRN CWA TUE NIGHT...BUT WITH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE SHORTWAVE.
WITH THE GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WILL LEAD TO AN ABOVE NORMAL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL OCCUR THU THROUGH NEXT
SAT...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND
WHEN THEY DO...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS
STARTING FIRST AT IWD AND LAST AT SAW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXIT
EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOK FOR THE RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TO
WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR S MANITOBA SUNDAY MORNING SLIDES ACROSS
ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL DEEPEN SW OF JAMES BAY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH AVERAGING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN OR NEAR ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1215 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
THE REGION... BUT ONCE AGAIN THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THAT POTENTIAL
WILL BE REALIZED. WE SHOULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON... WHICH WILL LIKELY GROW UP SCALE INTO AN MCS.
IF THIS OCCURS OVER NORTH DAKOTA AS MOST OF THE MODELS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS... IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF IT WOULD TRANSLATE EAST ALONG
THE THICKNESS CONTOURS AND MISS US TO THE NORTH. THERE ARE SOME
HINTS IN THE CAM SOLUTIONS THAT A SECOND COMPLEX COULD DEVELOP
FARTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA... BUT IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR IT
WOULD LIKELY TRANSLATE MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MISS US TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. A THIRD POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WOULD ACTUALLY BE
SOONER... DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER OUR NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST CWFA... IF ANYTHING MANAGES TO DEVELOP IN THE CU FIELD
CURRENTLY IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. A COUPLE OF HOPWRF MEMBERS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT IS
POSSIBLE... BUT THE OTHER MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE HRRR KEEP ANY OF
THAT NORTH OF THE AREA. SO... OVERALL THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT... BUT IT IS BY NO MEANS A SLAM DUNK. WILL ALLOW POPS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH SOME DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS... WITH THAT AREA LOOKING TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE
SOMETHING. ANYTHING THAT/S OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WOULD SHIFT
EAST IN THE MORNING... SO TRANSLATED SOME CHANCE POPS EASTWARD. WE
WOULD THEN NEED TO LOOK TOWARD DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT... WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE. THAT
TIMING IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
AREA... AND WOULD MAINLY POINT TOWARD AREAS EAST OF I-35 HAVING A
CHANCE OF SEEING SOMETHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO... PUT THE
HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY... THEY WOULD
CERTAINLY HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES AOA
2500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR AOA 35 KT... SO IT CERTAINLY BEARS
WATCHING AND WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN SHOULD THE FRONTAL TIMING
WIND UP SLOWER. WE WILL MAKE A RUN AT 90 ON SUNDAY DEPENDING UPON
HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE SEE OVER THE AREA... WHICH COULD BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE DEPENDING ON ANY ISSUES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
AND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. THE FAIRLY EARLY FROPA
DOESN/T APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
POTENTIAL... WITH MIXING ACTUALLY LOOKING TO INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS NEAR 90.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. GOOD MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD
ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE DRYING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
WITH A WAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO ND/MN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A BIT MID DECK OF STRATUS OR STRATO-CU MIGHT ACT
TO SUPPRESS SBCAPE...BUT THERE SHOULD BE DECENT RECOVERY IN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND SHOULD INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...STORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD POSE A HAIL THREAT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE SPC SLIGHT RISK SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
30-50% ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE IDEA OF AT
LEAST SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE WITH THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE AS THE
TRIGGER. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CYCLONICALLY CURVED LONG WAVE PATTERN LINGERS THROUGHOUT AT LEAST
MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE COOL EARLY START
TO THIS JULY...WHICH SITS BETWEEN 4 AND 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST FEW DAYS IN CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. HEIGHTS
BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THE FLOW STILL REMAINS W-NW AND THE
THERMAL RIDGE OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND HIGH PLAINS WILL
STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE EAST. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE CFS...05.12Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR CORRESPONDING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH INDICATES
A NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE...BUT OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS LOCALLY. IT DOES MEAN IF WE DONT REACH 90
TOMORROW...IT MAY BE SOME TIME BEFORE WE GET CLOSE TO THAT AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
LOW CIGS AND VSBYS ARE IN PLACE AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME OVER NRN IA INTO
SERN MN AND WRN WI. EAU AND RNH WILL BE MVFR OR IFR THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME BUILDING OF
THIS TO THE NORTHWEST AS WELL...SO MSP IS NOT OUT OF THE WOODS
EITHER...ALBEIT IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN THERE. TOUGH TO SAY HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES MAY GET WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE BUT SEVERAL OBS IN NRN IA ARE LESS THAN 3SM AND IN
SOME CASES LESS THAN 1SM. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 14-15Z.
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO NORTHERN MN. A FEW
CELLS MAY WORK DOWN TOWARD AXN OR STC DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT THEY WOULD BE ENCOUNTERING A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THUS...REMOVED MENTION OF TS FROM THE TAFS. BETTER
CHANCE OF TS WILL COME EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN WI.
KMSP...THERE WAS A BRIEF INSTANCE OF MVFR CIGS LATE THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER THE CIGS HAVE RETREATED BACK TOWARD WI. THINKING THEY
WILL BUILD NORTHWEST AGAIN OVERNIGHT BUT THE TERMINAL SHOULD BE ON
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY. THUS...FELT MOST COMFORTABLE WITH TEMPOS
AT THIS POINT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight into Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
Currently, large expanse of high level clouds have enveloped much
of the outlook area. This is blow off from a convective complex
to our north. Over the past few hours, this area of showers and
storms has rapidly decayed, with just a few lingering showers near
northern portions of Miller/Maries counties. This activity will
dissipate over the next hour or so, with additional development
expected later. Temperatures have been affected, somewhat, by the
high cloud coverage, with most locations in the upper 70s to lower
80s. The only exception is across extreme southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri where mid/upper 80s are a bit more common.
Anticipate that scattered TSRA will redevelop to the northwest of
the CWA later today in line with the HRRR and NAM12...however
models handling how this will propagate inconsistently. Given
orientation of the moisture transport/low level Theta E would
anticipate activity to build southwestward into the night...then
take on an easterly component toward morning as the relatively
weak low level jet veers east.
Questions for convection then on Sunday more of a question.
Should be plenty of instability and even a bit of support from a
dampening short wave. However rain may be hard to come by unless
the overnight convection is able to generate an outflow boundary.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
Warming trend will continue into Monday with areas over the west
witnessing the highest heat indices of the season before heights
start to fall and a wavy weak front arrives on Tuesday. Models have
been consistent with convective development along the front Tuesday
into early Wednesday as the front slowly descends into Arkansas.
Questions continue as to how far south the front makes it into
Arkansas and scattered storms may then continue along the Arkansas
border through the end of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
VFR conditions are expected through Sunday evening. An upper level
disturbance will bring an increase in mid and high clouds into
Sunday morning. We do expect a few showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two across portions of western Missouri from late
tonight into Sunday morning. We have opted to include vicinity
showers at Joplin as thunderstorm coverage is expected to be
limited. Otherwise, we are expecting dry conditions to persist
with continued south winds at the surface.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gagan/Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Schaumann
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
311 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
THERE ARE THREE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES CURRENTLY BEING
CONSIDERED:
-HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY
-CONVECTION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SOUTH
-SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AT 07Z...SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND HAD JUST MOVE
THROUGH PINE RIDGE. FRONT SHOULD REACH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS OVER FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
QUITE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH ONLY
SLIGHT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. ALOFT...WEAK RIDGING WAS NOTED
UPSTREAM WITH MINOR HEIGHT RISES AT 500 MB ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
NEBRASKA...WITH FAIRLY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THEREIN LIES THE QUESTION OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...TRYING TO
DETERMINE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION
TODAY IN A WARM AIRMASS WITH A MODEST CAP AND A LACK OF DEEP
VERTICAL MOTION FROM ANY DISTINCT LIFTING MECHANISM OTHER THAN
THE FRONT. THE 00Z NAM AND THE 06Z RAP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IN THE 22Z-23Z TIME
FRAME...AND THE 00Z GFS DEVELOPS IT SLIGHTLY POST FRONTAL BETWEEN
00Z-06Z. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE NAM AND RAP BOTH ERODE THE CAP
FROM ABOUT LINCOLN SOUTH...AND INDICATE VERTICAL MOTION ON THE
ORDER OF -4 MICROBARS/SEC THROUGH AROUND 600MB. GIVEN THESE
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS...WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA FROM 22Z-03Z.
REGARDING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TODAY...THE COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT IS A CONCERN BUT NEARLY FULL SUN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH. A DEGREE OR TWO DROP IN DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED
IN NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT NOT IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL WELL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. GENERALLY HAVE NOT MADE CHANGES TO TEMPS
TODAY...BUT DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON READINGS
SATURDAY. BOTTOM LINE IS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95-100 NORTH AND
100-105 SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE MOST SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN JUST
SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WET PATTERN FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS PERIOD
HANDLED WELL. ONLY CHANGES WILL BE TO INCREASE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND ALSO MENTION HEAVY RAIN MONDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE RECENT RAINS HAVE CAUSED FLOODING
IN SOUTHWEST IOWA.
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LOOKS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR 9-12 HOURS... JET
DIVERGENCE AND SHEARED VORTICITY IN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIFT...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. NAM
AND GFS SHOW QUITE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION FROM 850-700. THIS IS
A CONCERN GIVEN THE CURRENT FLOODING IN THE NISHNABOTNA RIVER
BASIN IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. WPC DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAIN GRAPHIC SUPPORTS
THIS AS WELL.
INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
APPEAR TO BE LINING UP...PER SPC DAY 2 DISCUSSION. INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PARAMETERS MORE THAN SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK WITH UNSEASONABLY FAST UPPER FLOW. BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA SEEM
LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
BY LATE TUESDAY THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW BRINGS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AND
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE SITES LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY WITH RECENT RAINS AND FORECASTED LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS/LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM WIND. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER THIS...BUT DID INCLUDE A
TEMPO GROUP MAINLY BETWEEN 09-13Z. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15-18Z AT
KOFK AND CLOSER TO 21Z AT KOMA AND KLNK. VERY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE...HOWEVER HEATING WELL INTO THE
90S...WEAK LIFT...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK
THE CAP AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. OR...THE CAP MAY HOLD.
THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A POSSIBILITY TO INCLUDE VCTS AT 21Z/22Z
AT KLNK WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH AT PEAK HEATING. MAY HAVE
TO INCLUDE AT OMAHA DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1245 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
TEMPERATURES.
CLOUDS HAVE ABOUT MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
A FEW THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE
AND WHAT HAPPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE NAM...THE RAP AND THE HRRR
PRODUCE A LITTLE QPF/THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. WITH THE SPRINKLES THAT FORMED EARLIER BELIEVE THAT A 20
PERCENT CHANCE COULD BE A GOOD IDEA IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. NOT
EXPECTING THERE TO BE MUCH BUT A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP.
A SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. EVEN WITH THE
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
WELL INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES DURING THE DAY. AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. HAVE KEPT THE SMALL POPS IN FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE MODELS HAVE
DIFFERENCES ON THIS AS WELL. MANY OF THE MODELS ARE DRY...BUT A FEW
SHOW SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
PATTERN: IT IS LOOKING DECIDEDLY MORE SUMMERLIKE. OVERALL THE MEAN
LONGWAVE FLOW WILL FEATURE A WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WITH
SEASONABLE CHANGES IN AMPLITUDE. ONE THING IS CLEAR...WE HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO A CONSIDERABLY DRIER PATTERN. THE PATTERN THAT
BROUGHT THE VERY WET JUNE IS NO LONGER WITH US...AND ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS FCST OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL USA THRU MID-MONTH THREATEN SOME
PERSISTENCE TO THIS DRYNESS.
THE ONLY DECENT PROSPECT FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS
MON NIGHT AND EVEN THEN NOT ALL AREAS WILL GET IT.
EXPECT IRRIGATION WILL BE NECESSARY VERY SOON.
ONE THING NOTED BY THE WPC /WX PREDICTION CTR AT NWSHQ/ IS TYPHOON
NEOGURI FCST TO RECURVE IN THE WRN PACIFIC. ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND ABSORPTION INTO THE WESTERLIES COULD RESULT IN A
PATTERN RE-ADJUSTMENT AROUND MID-MONTH.
ALOFT: THE SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL HIGH HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED AND
WILL BE OVER THE SW USA THRU MID-WEEK. STORMINESS OVER THE GULF OF
AK WILL FORCE A TEMPORARY AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE INTO WRN
CANADA. THIS WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND SEND A SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO
THE CNTRL/ERN USA THIS WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED TROF WILL SLIDE THRU MON
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY CYCLONIC NW FLOW TUE-WED. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
MOVE THRU THU AHEAD OF A TROF MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC. WHILE THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THIS TROF WILL ACTUALLY STAY N OF THE BORDER...
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO EXPAND ACROSS
THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...AM NOT BUYING IT. THE PAST 2 EC/GEM/GFS
CYCLES HAVE AMPLIFY THE PATTERN WITH THE ERN USA TROF BEING CARVED
OUT AGAIN. THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE CONTROL RUN SHOWS THIS VERY NICELY
AND THIS IDEA FITS THE PATTERN.
SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT IS ADVANCING THRU THE FCST AREA SUN
AFTERNOON WILL STALL OVER NRN KS MON...AWAITING A STRONGER SECOND
FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE THRU MON NIGHT. THIS SECOND PUSH WILL FORCE
THE COMPOSITE FRONT DEEPER INTO THE SRN PLAINS. COMFORTABLE HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN TUE-WED WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING THU AS THE HIGH
HEADS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW PRES WILL CROSS WRN CANADA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AND BEGIN DRAWING THE FRONT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT
THU. FRI IT HEATS BACK UP IN THE WARM SECTOR...THEN A COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI NIGHT OR SAT.
HAZARDS: AN ISOLATED PROBABLY NON-SVR TSTM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE MON NIGHT WITH LEGIT SVR
POTENTIAL. BEYOND THAT...ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS UNORGANIZED AND
IS LOW CONFIDENCE.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
UNCERTAINTY IS WAY ABOVE AVERAGE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. AM NOT
IMPRESSED WITH THE TSTM POTENTIAL ALONG THIS FRONT. WHILE DEWPOINTS
ARE IMPRESSIVE NOW...TOMORROW`S HEAT WILL MIX OUT THESE HIGH DWPTS
WITH NO REPLENISHMENT. 12Z SOUNDINGS AROUND THE REGION THIS AM SHOW
THERE ARE REALLY NO GOOD/DEEP BANDS OF MOISTURE. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE CAP.
09Z SREF DOES SUGGEST PORTION OF THE NARROW RIBBON OF 10-12C 850 MB
DWPTS ALONG THE FRONT WILL CIRCULATE ANTICYCLONICALLY BACK INTO THE
REGION LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WAITING TO INTERCEPT THE NEXT
FRONT.
BOTTOM LINE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY MOST OF THE TIME SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. THIS FCST WOULD BETTER BE VIEWED FROM THE STANDPOINT
THAT THERE IS AN 80% CHANCE THAT TSTMS WILL NOT FORM. "IF" AN
ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO MANAGES TO DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK /10-15 KTS/. THIS SUGGESTS AT BEST NICKEL SIZE HAIL. LCL
HEIGHTS WILL BE NEAR 10K FT WHICH WOULD THREATEN WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH.
MON NIGHT: A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND
AND THE LLJ IN ADVANCE. CONSIDERABLE CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD HAVE 2000-
2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. WE DO NEED TO
WATCH POTENTIAL FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT FOR SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...
BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OF A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...EMBEDDED BOWS AND LEWP`S WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
WE HAVE NOTED THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WX AND WE ARE IN AGREEMENT.
THIS FCSTR CONTS TO SEE TUE-THU COOLER THAN WHAT MEX MOS AND EVEN
THE DAYS 4-7 INITIALIZATION HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. THIS GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY RELUCTANT TO LOWER TEMPS. BASED ON ENSEMBLE TEMP ANOMALIES
...HAVE TRENDED THE FCST HIGHS CLOSER TO THE EC/GEM 2M TEMPS WHICH
HAVE HAD A SIZABLE COOLDOWN FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
TUE: CLEARING AS MON NIGHT`S MCS DEPARTS THE REGION. HIGHS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED TO 77-86F...A LITTLE BELOW THE 4 AM GID FCST. THIS IS
ROUGHLY 8F COOLER THAN NORMAL. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF WINDY
CONDITIONS BEFORE NOON.
WED: VERY NICE. TEMPS BEGIN CREEPING UP A LITTLE...BUT STILL 4-5F
COOLER THAN NORMAL.
WED NIGHT: GOOD LLJ DEVELOPMENT WITH A BURST OF THETA-E ADVECTION.
COULD SEE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS FORM WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
THU: QUESTIONABLE. IT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY WARM FRONTAL
CLOUDINESS DEPARTS ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING EFFECTS FROM POSSIBLE
MCS DEVELOPMENT WED NIGHT. THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE A SUBSTANTIAL
TEMP GRADIENT FROM SW-NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WHILE AREAS FROM ORD-
GREELEY-FULLERTON MAY BE JAMMED IN THE 70S...AREAS FROM BEAVER CITY-
OSBORNE KS MAY BE IN THE UPPER 90S.
FRI: ANOTHER THRUST OF BIG TIME HEAT IN THE WARM SECTOR. BELIEVE
ODDS FAVOR 95-105F. LOOK FOR THIS TIME FRAME TO TREND HIGHER.
FRI NIGHT OR SAT: POSSIBLY A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN LYING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. WEAK SFC
PATTERN CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
WE GET PAST SUNRISE...WITH WINDS THEN STARTING TO SWITCH TO THE NW
THEN N WITH TIME. EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH...SPEEDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO TOP 10 TO 15 MPH. MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ITS IMPACT ON THE TERMINAL AREAS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO
INSERT ANY MENTION AT THIS POINT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
518 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO LATE WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...MODELS IDENTIFY THE WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL S/W
TROF OR VORT MAX OFF THE FL-GA COASTS THIS MORNING...AND LIFT IT
TO THE N-NE...MORE OR LESS PARALLEL TO THE SE U.S. COASTLINE...TO
THE NC ATL WATERS NC BETWEEN CAPE LOOKOUT AND CAPE FEAR AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY.
THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE HOW FAR INLAND
WILL THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...IE. CLOUDS AND PCPN...EXTEND. THE
NAM SEEMS MUCH MORE WETTER THAN THE GFS...ALONG WITH A FURTHER
EXTENSION INLAND WITH ITS POPS...IE LOOK AT THE LATEST NAM MOS
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT CLOUD FIELD SHOWS MAINLY A
THIN/OPAQUE CI SHIELD ACROSS THE FA WITH POSSIBLE LOW-MID CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF GEORGETOWN COUNTY VIA LATEST
11-3.9 MICRON SAT IMAGERY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS MOS POP
OUTPUT...WITH A LESS EXTENSION INLAND WITH POPS AND ALSO WITH THE
LOW- MID LEVEL CLOUDS. IN ESSENCE...WILL GO WITH A MAX OF 20-40
POPS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THIS DISTURBANCE FEATURE ALOFT
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE N-NE.
NOT ONE OF YOUR BETTER BEACH DAYS WITH THIN-OPAQUE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OCCURRING...AND WITH INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS OF WIDESPREAD 80S TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA...WITH THE OPAQUE CI/CS AND ADDITIONAL LOW-
MID LEVEL CLOUDS KEEPING MAXES NEARLY A CATEGORY LOWER...IE. THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHTS MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...70-75 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
SSTS AROUND 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL SYSTEM THAT WILL PROVIDE
CLOUDINESS TODAY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY. NVA IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION BUT THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING ITS TOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST
ENTIRELY DRY. WE ARE STILL ADVERTISING POPS FOR MONDAY WITH
TUESDAY DRY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS STABLE WITH A FEW
DEGREES TACKED ON TO THE 88-93 RANGE MONDAY FOR TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S WILL BE HISTORY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AREA WIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...OVERALL THE MID LEVEL PATTERN HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
TOWARD A BIT MORE OF AN ELONGATED RIDGE LATER IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH
THIS APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEAKENS MORESO
INSTEAD OF MOVING EAST AND THIS KEEPS THE ASSOCIATED FRONTS FROM
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST WPC GRAPHICS SHOW A FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY WHICH WILL REMAIN THE CATALYST FOR GOOD
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THEN DISSIPATING BY THE NEW DAY SUNDAY. FRIDAY
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS WELL. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL SEE ISOLATED TO CHANCE COVERAGE. NO CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SURFACE OBS AND LATEST SAT IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
SUGGEST SOME 3-4KFT CLOUDS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ONSHORE
KMYR/KCRE...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT VIA LATEST MODEL
RUNS. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH FOR KMYR/KCRE LATER TODAY AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE OFF THE GA/SC COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD. DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN TEMPO -SHRA/MVFR AT WORST...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SO
ISOLATED THAT THESE TERMS MAY NOT SEE ANY PCPN AT ALL. THE OTHER
TAF SITES LOOK TO REMAIN DRY TODAY AS THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST 10-15 KT AT THE COAST...5 TO 10 KT INLAND AFTER 17Z AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. VFR WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...THE LIMITED MARINE DATA AVAILABLE CONFIRMS
OUR EARLIER FORECAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO WINDS
OR SEAS. THE NEW 00Z NAM MODEL PLUS SEVERAL OF THE RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR MODEL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE MAY
BE RISING IN THE GEORGETOWN/WINYAH BAY VICINITY AND OFFSHORE. ALSO
OF NOTE OUR LOCAL WATERSPOUT THREAT CALCULATOR HAS INCREASED THAT
POTENTIAL INTO THE "MODERATE" CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA IS PRODUCING AN
ONSHORE WIND ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ODD MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST IS HELPING ACCELERATE THE
ONSHORE WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS BEING
REPORTED NEARSHORE FROM MYRTLE BEACH SOUTHWARD INTO THE CHARLESTON
VICINITY. THESE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC WATERS WHERE THE HIGH WILL
BUILD DOWN AND SPREAD ITS LESSENED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD. A
LITTLE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS AND THAT IS WHERE MY HIGHEST FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN.
AN EARLIER UPDATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BROUGHT NEARSHORE SEAS INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ONSHORE WINDS...AND NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NEEDED. THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY IS
REPORTING A 3.4 FT CHOP EVERY 5 SECONDS...WITH NOAA BUOY 41004 40
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON REPORTING A VERY CHOPPY 7 FEET EVERY
5-6 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A FAIRLY BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FLOW MAY
DIP BELOW 15 KNOTS BRIEFLY BUT OVERALL THIS RANGE SHOULD SUFFICE.
THE PRIMARY REASON IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING WEDNESDAY.
THESE SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS AS A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST THUS INCREASING THE GRADIENT. A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT SPEEDS OCCUR THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE HIGHER WEDNESDAY WITH 2-4 FEET DROPPING OT 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/BJR
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
329 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...MAINLY THIN CIRRUS IS STREAMING OVERHEAD
THIS EVENING...BUT THE INFRARED SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS QUITE A
BIT WORSE THAN IT LOOKS FROM THE OFFICE PARKING LOT. THE ONLY
LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER CLOUDS BENEATH THE CIRRUS
IS GEORGETOWN WHERE CLOUDS WITH BASES JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET
(PRESUMABLY MARITIME CUMULUS) ARE BEING REPORTED ON THE GGE AWOS.
THE NEW 00Z NAM CONCURS WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS THAT MARINE SHOWERS
MAY ATTEMPT TO SPREAD ONSHORE IN THE GEORGETOWN VICINITY AROUND
SUNRISE...SO I HAVE UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE 11-15Z TIME FRAME
THERE. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...SETTLING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE DAYBREAK.
TO THE SOUTH A SEEMINGLY OUT-OF-PLACE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST IS IGNITING QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. CONVECTIVE
BLOWOFF CLOUDINESS STREAMING NORTHWARD HAS PROVIDED A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
INCLUDING GEORGETOWN AND MYRTLE BEACH. WHILE MUCH OF THE LOWER
CUMULUS CLOUD COVER THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...THIS HIGHER CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF MAY
PERSIST.
AS THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIFTS NORTHWARD...ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE BASE OF A SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
BETWEEN 775-700 MB...APPROXIMATELY 7500-10500 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL. THIS MAY SPELL INCREASING CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE CONDITIONS MAY
TEMPORARILY CLEAR OUT LATER THIS EVENING. WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL
MARINE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY OFFSHORE
WILL ADVECT WESTWARD...WITH SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOPING ALONG THE SC
COAST SOUTH OF MYRTLE BEACH.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A PRONOUNCED NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
TONIGHT. ACROSS INTERIOR SE NORTH CAROLINA GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND A PREEXISTING COOL/DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO 61-65 RANGE...IN PLACES ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACROSS
NE SOUTH CAROLINA MORE CLOUDS AND A HEALTHIER ONSHORE WIND WILL
PRECLUDE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WARMEST NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL SYSTEM THAT WILL PROVIDE
CLOUDINESS TODAY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY. NVA IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION BUT THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING ITS TOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST
ENTIRELY DRY. WE ARE STILL ADVERTISING POPS FOR MONDAY WITH
TUESDAY DRY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS STABLE WITH A FEW
DEGREES TACKED ON TO THE 88-93 RANGE MONDAY FOR TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S WILL BE HISTORY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AREA WIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...OVERALL THE MID LEVEL PATTERN HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
TOWARD A BIT MORE OF AN ELONGATED RIDGE LATER IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH
THIS APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEAKENS MORESO
INSTEAD OF MOVING EAST AND THIS KEEPS THE ASSOCIATED FRONTS FROM
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST WPC GRAPHICS SHOW A FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY WHICH WILL REMAIN THE CATALYST FOR GOOD
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THEN DISSIPATING BY THE NEW DAY SUNDAY. FRIDAY
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS WELL. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL SEE ISOLATED TO CHANCE COVERAGE. NO CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SURFACE OBS AND LATEST SAT IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
SUGGEST SOME 3-4KFT CLOUDS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ONSHORE
KMYR/KCRE...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT VIA LATEST MODEL
RUNS. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH FOR KMYR/KCRE LATER TODAY AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE OFF THE GA/SC COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD. DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN TEMPO -SHRA/MVFR AT WORST...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SO
ISOLATED THAT THESE TERMS MAY NOT SEE ANY PCPN AT ALL. THE OTHER
TAF SITES LOOK TO REMAIN DRY TODAY AS THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST 10-15 KT AT THE COAST...5 TO 10 KT INLAND AFTER 17Z AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. VFR WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...THE LIMITED MARINE DATA AVAILABLE CONFIRMS
OUR EARLIER FORECAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO WINDS
OR SEAS. THE NEW 00Z NAM MODEL PLUS SEVERAL OF THE RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR MODEL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE MAY
BE RISING IN THE GEORGETOWN/WINYAH BAY VICINITY AND OFFSHORE. ALSO
OF NOTE OUR LOCAL WATERSPOUT THREAT CALCULATOR HAS INCREASED THAT
POTENTIAL INTO THE "MODERATE" CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA IS PRODUCING AN
ONSHORE WIND ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ODD MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST IS HELPING ACCELERATE THE
ONSHORE WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS BEING
REPORTED NEARSHORE FROM MYRTLE BEACH SOUTHWARD INTO THE CHARLESTON
VICINITY. THESE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC WATERS WHERE THE HIGH WILL
BUILD DOWN AND SPREAD ITS LESSENED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD. A
LITTLE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS AND THAT IS WHERE MY HIGHEST FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN.
AN EARLIER UPDATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BROUGHT NEARSHORE SEAS INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ONSHORE WINDS...AND NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NEEDED. THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY IS
REPORTING A 3.4 FT CHOP EVERY 5 SECONDS...WITH NOAA BUOY 41004 40
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON REPORTING A VERY CHOPPY 7 FEET EVERY
5-6 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A FAIRLY BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FLOW MAY
DIP BELOW 15 KNOTS BRIEFLY BUT OVERALL THIS RANGE SHOULD SUFFICE.
THE PRIMARY REASON IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING WEDNESDAY.
THESE SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS AS A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST THUS INCREASING THE GRADIENT. A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT SPEEDS OCCUR THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE HIGHER WEDNESDAY WITH 2-4 FEET DROPPING OT 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
143 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND ANCHOR OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ALLOWING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RETURN MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
GRADUALLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS OF
THE CAROLINAS...WILL LED TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...MAINLY THIN CIRRUS IS STREAMING OVERHEAD
THIS EVENING...BUT THE INFRARED SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS QUITE A
BIT WORSE THAN IT LOOKS FROM THE OFFICE PARKING LOT. THE ONLY
LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER CLOUDS BENEATH THE CIRRUS
IS GEORGETOWN WHERE CLOUDS WITH BASES JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET
(PRESUMABLY MARITIME CUMULUS) ARE BEING REPORTED ON THE GGE AWOS.
THE NEW 00Z NAM CONCURS WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS THAT MARINE SHOWERS
MAY ATTEMPT TO SPREAD ONSHORE IN THE GEORGETOWN VICINITY AROUND
SUNRISE...SO I HAVE UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE 11-15Z TIME FRAME
THERE. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...SETTLING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE DAYBREAK.
TO THE SOUTH A SEEMINGLY OUT-OF-PLACE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST IS IGNITING QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. CONVECTIVE
BLOWOFF CLOUDINESS STREAMING NORTHWARD HAS PROVIDED A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
INCLUDING GEORGETOWN AND MYRTLE BEACH. WHILE MUCH OF THE LOWER
CUMULUS CLOUD COVER THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...THIS HIGHER CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF MAY
PERSIST.
AS THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIFTS NORTHWARD...ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE BASE OF A SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
BETWEEN 775-700 MB...APPROXIMATELY 7500-10500 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL. THIS MAY SPELL INCREASING CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE CONDITIONS MAY
TEMPORARILY CLEAR OUT LATER THIS EVENING. WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL
MARINE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY OFFSHORE
WILL ADVECT WESTWARD...WITH SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOPING ALONG THE SC
COAST SOUTH OF MYRTLE BEACH.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A PRONOUNCED NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
TONIGHT. ACROSS INTERIOR SE NORTH CAROLINA GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND A PREEXISTING COOL/DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO 61-65 RANGE...IN PLACES ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACROSS
NE SOUTH CAROLINA MORE CLOUDS AND A HEALTHIER ONSHORE WIND WILL
PRECLUDE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WARMEST NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...ANOTHER DAY WITH RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY
WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY BEFORE THE CANADIAN HIGH MIGRATES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY THAN SUNDAY
DUE TO VEERING WINDS AND THE USHERING OF A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME AIR-MASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. ON AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPS MONDAY
LOOKS TO PAN OUT 4-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER GA/SC MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR VERY SOUTHERN COAST
AND COASTAL INTERIOR TO NEAR CAPE FEAR SUNDAY. DRY AIR ALOFT OVER
THE REGION WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF EXPECTED PCPN
AND CELL COVERAGE...AND ONLY ISOLATED POP VALUES WILL BE
ADVERTISED FOR THE SC ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY DRY AND QUIET START
TO THE PERIOD AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S INLAND/LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. PATTERN BEGINS TO
CHANGE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS WITH THE AID OF A HIGH PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST . TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS AND FIZZLES WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...OR IF IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA AND STALLS.
OVERALL...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP WITH A NON-FRONTAL PASSAGE
EVENT...BUT RATHER HAVING IT STALL/FALL JUST SHORT TO OUR WEST. WITH
THAT SAID...HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER/POPS AND KEPT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS MOISTURE
INCREASES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES OR
SLIGHTLY MORE. AS FOR TEMPS WE WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SURFACE OBS AND LATEST SAT IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
SUGGEST SOME 3-4KFT CLOUDS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ONSHORE
KMYR/KCRE...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT VIA LATEST MODEL
RUNS. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH FOR KMYR/KCRE LATER TODAY AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE OFF THE GA/SC COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD. DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN TEMPO -SHRA/MVFR AT WORST...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SO
ISOLATED THAT THESE TERMS MAY NOT SEE ANY PCPN AT ALL. THE OTHER
TAF SITES LOOK TO REMAIN DRY TODAY AS THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST 10-15 KT AT THE COAST...5 TO 10 KT INLAND AFTER 17Z AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. VFR WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...THE LIMITED MARINE DATA AVAILABLE CONFIRMS
OUR EARLIER FORECAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO WINDS
OR SEAS. THE NEW 00Z NAM MODEL PLUS SEVERAL OF THE RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR MODEL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE MAY
BE RISING IN THE GEORGETOWN/WINYAH BAY VICINITY AND OFFSHORE. ALSO
OF NOTE OUR LOCAL WATERSPOUT THREAT CALCULATOR HAS INCREASED THAT
POTENTIAL INTO THE "MODERATE" CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA IS PRODUCING AN
ONSHORE WIND ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ODD MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST IS HELPING ACCELERATE THE
ONSHORE WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS BEING
REPORTED NEARSHORE FROM MYRTLE BEACH SOUTHWARD INTO THE CHARLESTON
VICINITY. THESE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC WATERS WHERE THE HIGH WILL
BUILD DOWN AND SPREAD ITS LESSENED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD. A
LITTLE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS AND THAT IS WHERE MY HIGHEST FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN.
AN EARLIER UPDATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BROUGHT NEARSHORE SEAS INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ONSHORE WINDS...AND NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NEEDED. THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY IS
REPORTING A 3.4 FT CHOP EVERY 5 SECONDS...WITH NOAA BUOY 41004 40
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON REPORTING A VERY CHOPPY 7 FEET EVERY
5-6 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...ONSHORE ENE-E WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL
RESULT IN BUMPY 3-4 FOOT SEAS FOR THE MOST PART...BUT AS WINDS GO
SE AND S INTO AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SEAS WILL LIKELY DROP
ANOTHER FOOT OR SO. SO WHILE NOT IDEAL CONDITIONS...NO ADVISORIES
OR EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED. NO TSTMS EXPECTED
ON THE 0-20NM WATERS BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY DOT AREAS AROUND WINYAH
BAY. THE MAJORITY OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ARRIVING FROM E AND SE
AND A MODERATE CHOP FROM THE S-SW IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS NEAR 20 KT. AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTS
TO NEAR 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH AFTERNOON. WITH
MAINLY WIND DRIVEN WIND WAVES...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 4 FT WITH 5 FTERS POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN AMZ-252 AND AMZ-250. INTO THURSDAY...SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...DCH/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1155 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
IN COORDINATION WITH SPC...EXPANDED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
TO THE EAST. STORMS ALREADY GETTING TO THE END OF THE BOX AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR ACROSS THE EASTERN FA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS EXPECTED...AND
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ISSUED AS A RESULT. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EASTWARD IF TREND CONTINUE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE FIRST SEVERE THREAT IS NOW EAST OF THE FA. ATTENTION NOW TURNS
TO THE WEST WITH STORMS APPROACHING FROM CANADA AND FROM SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THE HRRR/RAP MAY BE TOO WIDESPREAD WITH COVERAGE IN
THEIR FORECASTS...BUT BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
FILL IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SEVERE AREAS...AND INDICATE THAT THESE
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING SEGMENTS (STRONG WIND GUSTS).
INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
INCREASING...ALONG WITH A 40-50 KNOT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX...AND
WITH A STRONG UPPER WAVE (DECENT SYNOPTIC FORCING). SO...THE HI-
RES MODELS MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING. THIS LOOKS TO BE A BUSY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HRRR IS ONCE AGAIN PERFORMING MORE
FAVORABLY THAN RAP AS IT RELATES TO CURRENT CONVECTION...SO WILL
FOLLOW ITS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS AND THEN
TRANSITION TO A GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE.
SFC TROUGH REFUSES TO BUDGE WITH A DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR
THE ND/MN/MB BORDER. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION FROM DEVILS LAKE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY RESULTING
IN A DRIER OVERALL AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH SFC BASED CAPE IS STILL
ABOVE 2000 J/KG. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NORTHWEST MN IN UNCAPPED
MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAREST THE SFC LOW. FORCING IS
STILL RATHER WEAK...BUT ONE SEVERE STORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER
WINNIPEG AND IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. A COUPLE OTHER SMALL
CELLS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE SFC WIND SHIFT JUST NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND IN KITTSON COUNTY. ISOLATED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
HIGH INSTABILITY. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS
EVENING WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S.
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA. INCREASING SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH MUCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHWEST MN. HRRR PLACES THIS LINE ALONG THE
VALLEY FLOOR BY 06 UTC. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MN ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPS/DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER
RESULTING IN LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AT
TIMES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST MON/TUES WITH THE NEXT PRIMARY
WAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW
DEEP NEXT 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE OVER ONTARIO AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. EITHER WAY FCST REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH EXITING SHORT WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE
FOR WED-EARLY THU. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT US LATE
THU-FRI. DIDNT STRAY FROM ALL BLEND TEMPS NOR POPS MUCH. OVERALL
TEMP REGIME AFTER THIS WEEKEND FAVORS A RETURN TO JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNRISE. THERE SHOULD BE A BROKEN LINE
OF STORMS THAT MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT SURE
HOW WIDESPREAD THESE STORMS WILL BE...BUT DID TEMPO FOR THE MOST
LIKELY PERIODS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS EXPECTED...AND
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ISSUED AS A RESULT. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EASTWARD IF TREND CONTINUE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE FIRST SEVERE THREAT IS NOW EAST OF THE FA. ATTENTION NOW TURNS
TO THE WEST WITH STORMS APPROACHING FROM CANADA AND FROM SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THE HRRR/RAP MAY BE TOO WIDESPREAD WITH COVERAGE IN
THEIR FORECASTS...BUT BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
FILL IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SEVERE AREAS...AND INDICATE THAT THESE
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING SEGMENTS (STRONG WIND GUSTS).
INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
INCREASING...ALONG WITH A 40-50 KNOT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX...AND
WITH A STRONG UPPER WAVE (DECENT SYNOPTIC FORCING). SO...THE HI-
RES MODELS MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING. THIS LOOKS TO BE A BUSY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HRRR IS ONCE AGAIN PERFORMING MORE
FAVORABLY THAN RAP AS IT RELATES TO CURRENT CONVECTION...SO WILL
FOLLOW ITS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS AND THEN
TRANSITION TO A GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE.
SFC TROUGH REFUSES TO BUDGE WITH A DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR
THE ND/MN/MB BORDER. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION FROM DEVILS LAKE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY RESULTING
IN A DRIER OVERALL AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH SFC BASED CAPE IS STILL
ABOVE 2000 J/KG. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NORTHWEST MN IN UNCAPPED
MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAREST THE SFC LOW. FORCING IS
STILL RATHER WEAK...BUT ONE SEVERE STORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER
WINNIPEG AND IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. A COUPLE OTHER SMALL
CELLS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE SFC WIND SHIFT JUST NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND IN KITTSON COUNTY. ISOLATED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
HIGH INSTABILITY. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS
EVENING WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S.
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA. INCREASING SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH MUCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHWEST MN. HRRR PLACES THIS LINE ALONG THE
VALLEY FLOOR BY 06 UTC. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MN ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPS/DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER
RESULTING IN LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AT
TIMES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST MON/TUES WITH THE NEXT PRIMARY
WAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW
DEEP NEXT 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE OVER ONTARIO AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. EITHER WAY FCST REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH EXITING SHORT WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE
FOR WED-EARLY THU. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT US LATE
THU-FRI. DIDNT STRAY FROM ALL BLEND TEMPS NOR POPS MUCH. OVERALL
TEMP REGIME AFTER THIS WEEKEND FAVORS A RETURN TO JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNRISE. THERE SHOULD BE A BROKEN LINE
OF STORMS THAT MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT SURE
HOW WIDESPREAD THESE STORMS WILL BE...BUT DID TEMPO FOR THE MOST
LIKELY PERIODS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1127 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
VFR expected for the next 24 hours with no significant aviation
concerns. May see a few stratus near JCT around sunrise...but
confidence too low to add MVFR ceiling. Will also see a few
afternoon cumulus...but expecting a bit less than yesterday with
drier air in place. Winds should increase out of the south at 10
to 15 kt by mid-morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR expected for the next 24 hours. May see just a few stratus
make it into the Northwest Hill Country and JCT area...but clouds
should be brief. Left a scattered group of low clouds in for a few
hours around sunrise. Otherwise...light southeast winds overnight
will pick up to 10 to 15 kts tomorrow more out of the south. No
significant aviation weather expected.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)
Cumulus development was more extensive over West Central Texas than
yesterday. While the 17Z HRRR model reflectivity did indicated
isolated shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon, cumulus
at 3 PM had limited vertical extent, and expect dry conditions this
evening.
Dry conditions continue Sunday as upper ridging holds over the
region. Will maintain a persistence forecast, with lows in the lower
70s and highs in the mid 90s.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Warm and dry conditions will continue across West Central Texas
through next week. The center of the upper high will remain over the
four corners region through midweek, then flatten and expand east
across the Southern Plains through next Saturday. Models still show a
weak TUTT moving into extreme south Texas and far northeastern Mexico
by Wednesday. This feature will remain nearly stationary across this
area through Thursday, then drift slowly west across Northern Mexico
by early next weekend. About the only noticeable effect from the
TUTT will be an increase in some diurnal cumulus by mid to late
week. Temperatures through the extended period will remain at or
slightly above seasonal normals for this time of year.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 72 94 71 96 72 / 5 5 5 5 5
San Angelo 72 95 69 96 72 / 5 5 5 5 5
Junction 69 94 70 95 70 / 5 5 5 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1044 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
Appears HRRR had the best handle on the progress of the MCS
remnants up to the present as stratiform showers and scattered
convection have descended into southwest Missouri. Warming
depicted by IR satellite though would suggest a general decrease
in lift across the region associated with a dampening shortwave.
Forecast update maintains southward moving precipitation through
late morning...becoming more scattered in association with
remnant MCV this afternoon.
High temperatures have been reduced at least a category across
all regions due to cloud cover though do anticipate some recovery
in the west as sunshine resumes and south winds pick back up this
afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
Thunderstorms have developed across north central Missouri to
the southwest into southeastern Kansas early this morning. This
activity has developed on the nose of a low level jet a ahead of a
weak upper level disturbance that is tracking south through the
region. This activity will continue to develop and track to the
south this morning and will mainly affect locations along an
northwest of an Anderson to Bolivar to Vichy Missouri line this
morning. This activity will weaken and dissipate by the mid
morning hours with the strongest activity generally occurring
before sunrise this morning. A few strong storms will be possible
early this morning with hail to the size of pennies the main risk
mainly before 7 AM this morning then storms should generally
weaken as the morning moves a long.
A warmer and more humid air mass is spreading north into the
region and highs will top out in the upper 80s to the lower 90s
this afternoon with heat index values in the middle 90s to near
the 100 degree mark.
Isolated storms could develop mainly east of Highway 65 this
afternoon, but some capping is not expected to completely erode
and there will not be much in the way of forcing in place.
Therefore, this activity will be very isolated, if it can
develop at all, and most locations will remain dry. If storms are
able to develop this afternoon, instability will increase in
excess of 2000J/kg of ML Cape and this instability and theta-E
differences greater than 25K would support a localized downburst
wind risk with a few of the storms that can develop.
Hot and humid conditions will occur again Monday as highs top out
in the lower to middle 90s with heat index values in the upper
90s to around 100 degrees. An unstable air mass will once again be
over the area, and with the heating of the day the cap should
weaken enough for scattered storms to develop Monday afternoon.
Theta-E differences greater than 25K combined with the unstably
air mass will once again support a risk for localized damaging
straight line winds with a few of the stronger storms Monday
afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
An upper level trough will move out of the northern Plains on
Monday night and southeast into the region on Tuesday along with a
weak cold front. Storms are expected to develop along the front as
it pushes south through the area. There will be a risk for strong
to severe storms Tuesday afternoon given a moist and unstable air
mass along with an increase in deep layer shear with the approach
of the upper level trough. Hail to the size of quarters and winds
in excess of 60 mph will be the main risks with this activity.
Slightly cooler conditions will occur on Wednesday and Thursday
behind the front with highs in the middle to upper 80s. An upper
level ridge will begin to build towards the region by late in the
week sending the front back to the north. A few storms may develop
on Thursday and Friday as the front moves north. Warmer conditions
are then expected this weekend as highs warm back into the 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: An area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms will affect the KSGF and KJLN areas early, but in
general expect vfr conditions for much of the taf period. The
showers are expected to weaken over the next few hours. South
winds will continue with sfc troughing remaining out of the
Plains.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Runnels
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
920 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
Updated POPs this morning to account for MCS descending southward
into the western portion of the SGF CWA. HRRR is at odds with the
new WRF as the HRRR maintains the MCS into the afternoon...while
the 12z WRF follows the 06z WRF in diminishing the activity very
rapidly this morning.
Radar and IR trends do indicate a downward trend as the leading
edge of the precipitation nears I-44...much in line with CIN
gradient available from the SPC meso page.
Typical MCS diurnal trends are supported by the strongly veered
westerly low level jet though there is weak shortwave support.
Updated POPs depict a diminishing trend though confidence is
modest.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
Thunderstorms have developed across north central Missouri to
the southwest into southeastern Kansas early this morning. This
activity has developed on the nose of a low level jet a ahead of a
weak upper level disturbance that is tracking south through the
region. This activity will continue to develop and track to the
south this morning and will mainly affect locations along an
northwest of an Anderson to Bolivar to Vichy Missouri line this
morning. This activity will weaken and dissipate by the mid
morning hours with the strongest activity generally occurring
before sunrise this morning. A few strong storms will be possible
early this morning with hail to the size of pennies the main risk
mainly before 7 AM this morning then storms should generally
weaken as the morning moves a long.
A warmer and more humid air mass is spreading north into the
region and highs will top out in the upper 80s to the lower 90s
this afternoon with heat index values in the middle 90s to near
the 100 degree mark.
Isolated storms could develop mainly east of Highway 65 this
afternoon, but some capping is not expected to completely erode
and there will not be much in the way of forcing in place.
Therefore, this activity will be very isolated, if it can
develop at all, and most locations will remain dry. If storms are
able to develop this afternoon, instability will increase in
excess of 2000J/kg of ML Cape and this instability and theta-E
differences greater than 25K would support a localized downburst
wind risk with a few of the storms that can develop.
Hot and humid conditions will occur again Monday as highs top out
in the lower to middle 90s with heat index values in the upper
90s to around 100 degrees. An unstable air mass will once again be
over the area, and with the heating of the day the cap should
weaken enough for scattered storms to develop Monday afternoon.
Theta-E differences greater than 25K combined with the unstably
air mass will once again support a risk for localized damaging
straight line winds with a few of the stronger storms Monday
afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
An upper level trough will move out of the northern Plains on
Monday night and southeast into the region on Tuesday along with a
weak cold front. Storms are expected to develop along the front as
it pushes south through the area. There will be a risk for strong
to severe storms Tuesday afternoon given a moist and unstable air
mass along with an increase in deep layer shear with the approach
of the upper level trough. Hail to the size of quarters and winds
in excess of 60 mph will be the main risks with this activity.
Slightly cooler conditions will occur on Wednesday and Thursday
behind the front with highs in the middle to upper 80s. An upper
level ridge will begin to build towards the region by late in the
week sending the front back to the north. A few storms may develop
on Thursday and Friday as the front moves north. Warmer conditions
are then expected this weekend as highs warm back into the 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: An area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms will affect the KSGF and KJLN areas early, but in
general expect vfr conditions for much of the taf period. The
showers are expected to weaken over the next few hours. South
winds will continue with sfc troughing remaining out of the
Plains.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Runnels
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
734 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
THERE ARE THREE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES CURRENTLY BEING
CONSIDERED:
-HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY
-CONVECTION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SOUTH
-SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AT 07Z...SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND HAD JUST MOVE
THROUGH PINE RIDGE. FRONT SHOULD REACH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS OVER FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
QUITE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH ONLY
SLIGHT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. ALOFT...WEAK RIDGING WAS NOTED
UPSTREAM WITH MINOR HEIGHT RISES AT 500 MB ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
NEBRASKA...WITH FAIRLY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THEREIN LIES THE QUESTION OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...TRYING TO
DETERMINE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION
TODAY IN A WARM AIRMASS WITH A MODEST CAP AND A LACK OF DEEP
VERTICAL MOTION FROM ANY DISTINCT LIFTING MECHANISM OTHER THAN
THE FRONT. THE 00Z NAM AND THE 06Z RAP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IN THE 22Z-23Z TIME
FRAME...AND THE 00Z GFS DEVELOPS IT SLIGHTLY POST FRONTAL BETWEEN
00Z-06Z. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE NAM AND RAP BOTH ERODE THE CAP
FROM ABOUT LINCOLN SOUTH...AND INDICATE VERTICAL MOTION ON THE
ORDER OF -4 MICROBARS/SEC THROUGH AROUND 600MB. GIVEN THESE
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS...WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA FROM 22Z-03Z.
REGARDING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TODAY...THE COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT IS A CONCERN BUT NEARLY FULL SUN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH. A DEGREE OR TWO DROP IN DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED
IN NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT NOT IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL WELL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. GENERALLY HAVE NOT MADE CHANGES TO TEMPS
TODAY...BUT DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON READINGS
SATURDAY. BOTTOM LINE IS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95-100 NORTH AND
100-105 SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE MOST SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN JUST
SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WET PATTERN FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS PERIOD
HANDLED WELL. ONLY CHANGES WILL BE TO INCREASE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND ALSO MENTION HEAVY RAIN MONDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE RECENT RAINS HAVE CAUSED FLOODING
IN SOUTHWEST IOWA.
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LOOKS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR 9-12 HOURS... JET
DIVERGENCE AND SHEARED VORTICITY IN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIFT...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. NAM
AND GFS SHOW QUITE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION FROM 850-700. THIS IS
A CONCERN GIVEN THE CURRENT FLOODING IN THE NISHNABOTNA RIVER
BASIN IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. WPC DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAIN GRAPHIC SUPPORTS
THIS AS WELL.
INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
APPEAR TO BE LINING UP...PER SPC DAY 2 DISCUSSION. INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PARAMETERS MORE THAN SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK WITH UNSEASONABLY FAST UPPER FLOW. BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA SEEM
LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
BY LATE TUESDAY THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW BRINGS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AND
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 734 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
DENSE FOG/LOW CIGS HAVE SET IN AT KOFK...RECENT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THIS CONDITION WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT THREE
HOURS. LIGHT FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE OTHER SITES AND BY 15Z
ALL THREE SITES SHOULD BE INTO VFR. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID DECK
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING OTHER THAN VFR.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...PEARSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1037 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST
AR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DISTURBANCE...POSSIBLY EVEN AN
MCV...TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MO ATTM. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS IS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO AND FAR
NORTHEAST OK ATTM...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WAVE (CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED MOST LIKELY) WRAPPING AROUND THE MID LVL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE SOUTHWEST FLANK IS WEAKENING AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEAST...WITH THE NORTHEAST FLANK REMAINS MORE INTENSE.
HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS OVER IN NORTHWEST AR WHERE THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY IS HEADED. WILL INCREASE POPS MORE IF NEEDED.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. BVO
LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP AND WILL CARRY
-RA/VCTS...WHILE KEEPING THE REST OF THE TAF SITES DRY DUE TO
LIMITED COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUD
DECKS AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
PERSISTING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS THE TAIL END OF A
SHORTWAVE BRUSHES ACROSS THIS AREA. OTHERWISE THE HEAT WILL BE
BUILDING TODAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
SOME MODELS BRING TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY MONDAY BUT WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT HOT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT WILL STALL WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND AND
BEYOND BRINGING TEMPERATURES AS HOT OR HOTTER THAN WHAT WE WILL
SEE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 95 75 97 77 / 20 10 0 10
FSM 93 73 96 74 / 10 0 10 10
MLC 93 74 94 75 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 94 72 97 74 / 20 10 0 10
FYV 88 69 91 70 / 30 0 10 10
BYV 88 69 92 71 / 30 10 10 10
MKO 93 72 95 74 / 20 0 0 0
MIO 90 72 95 74 / 20 10 10 10
F10 93 73 95 74 / 20 0 0 0
HHW 92 72 93 73 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
919 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND HAVE
STARTED TO MOVE INLAND. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PWATS AROUND 1.7" THIS AFTERNOON WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER INLAND AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON THANKS TO DAY TIME HEATING. HIGH RES HRRR AND TEXAS TECH
WRF AGAIN SHOWING GREATEST CHANCES TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. GRANTED
THEY HAVE NOT INITIALIZED GREAT. COVERAGE MIGHT AGAIN BE MORE
THAN 40 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS BUT GIVEN MESOSCALE NATURE OF STORMS
HARD TO PIN POINT EXACT LOCATION. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TAKEN THE
ABOVE INTO ACCOUNT. NO UPDATE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. 23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD AND MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO IT. EXPECT
GENERAL PATTERN OF ISO/SCT PRECIP TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE NIGHT &
EARLY MORNING THEN TRANSITION INLAND DURING THE DAY COMPLIMENTS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEABREEZE. OVERALL COVERAGE DEPENDS ON
SLIGHT VARIATIONS OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY & LOCATION EACH DAY.
SFC HIGH PRES SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST. FURTHER ALOFT...LOOKS LIKE WE`LL REMAIN
IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS BETWEEN RIDGES. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLNS DO SUGGEST UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FURTHER OVERHEAD TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN CHANCES DOWN AND TEMPS UP. JUST
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON - BUT PERSISTENCE FCST WILL DO FOR
NOW. 47
MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES OFF TO THE EAST THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE IN-
CREASING SLIGHTLY THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE LIGHT/MODERATE WINDS ARE
FCST TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE WX PATTERN REMAINS GENER-
ALLY QUIET. NO ADVISORIES/CAUTION FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED EXPECTED THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 41
AVIATION...
CALM WINDS/WET GROUNDS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND
FOG THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING AS ALL OF THIS SHOULD MIX OUT BY THEN. OTHERWISE
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THE BEST CHCS FOR PCPN WILL BE A
BIT FURTHER W/SW THIS AFTN BUT ISO ACTIVITY ALONG/NEAR THE SEABREEZE
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT (GIVEN THE TRENDS THESE LAST FEW DAYS).
AS SUCH MAY ADD VCSH FOR SOME OF THE CENTRALLY LOCATED TAFS (SGR/HOU
AND LBX) FOR THIS AFTN. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 73 93 74 93 / 20 20 30 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 92 74 92 75 92 / 30 20 30 10 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 79 89 80 90 / 30 20 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1033 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.UPDATE...CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL STRATUS FIELD WHICH HAS LEAD TO THE SHAKING OF CONFIDENCE
FOR HOW STORMS WILL EVOLVE LATER. THE PLAN IS IT IS TILL EARLY AND
THIS TIME OF YEAR THIS LOWER STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BURN OFF TO
ALLOW FOR THE BUILDUP OF CAPE. MORE SUN ACRS SE WI BUT INITIATION
POINT IS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST IN WC WI WHERE THE CLOUD COVER IS.
CONCERN ATTM IS THAT WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER
EVOLVE. MID LEVEL JET STREAK STILL EXPECTED TO ENCROACH ON THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TIGHTENING 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHT GRADIENT.
WITHIN THIS IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL AID IN VERTICAL MOTION.
UPPER JET FURTHER NORTH HOWEVER SOME DIFFLUENCE NOTED ACRS
CNTRL/SRN WI MODEL PROGGD DIVERGENCE IN RESPONSE TO THIS. SPC
SUGGESTS THIS CLOUDINESS MAY RESULT IN CONVECTION BEING TIED TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE BUT MODULATED BY HOW QUICK THESE CLOUDS AHEAD OF
IT CAN THIN. 00Z NMM/ARW ARE STILL RATHER ROBUST BUT DO NOT
BELIEVE THESE MODELS FROM LAST NIGHT HAVE A HANDLE ON THESE LOW
CLOUDS. MEANWHILE THE 13Z HRRR SHOWING SOME STRONGER STORMS BUT
NOT NEARLY AS WHAT THE OTHER 00Z MODELS WERE SHOWING. 12Z NAM
SHOWS QPF BULLSEYE ACRS ERN CWA BETWEEN 18-00Z...SO FRONT COULD
END UP INITIATING CONVECTION INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
OUR CWA WHERE SOME SUN IS HEATING THINGS UP. SO LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THE MOMENT WITH THE THERMODYNAMICS BEING THE MAIN
QUESTION MARK. DYNAMICALLY/FORCING WISE...ALL SYSTEMS ARE STILL
GO.
PC
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...PLENTY OF STRATUS ACRS NW 1/2 OF THE CWA
THOUGH EXPECTING SOME BURNOFF AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY INCREASES.
MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERS ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH ALL OF THE
UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS HINDERING THE CAPE BUILDUP ATTM. HOWEVER STILL
EXPECT SOME THINNING AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION TO MAINTAIN A
THREAT OF SOME STRONGER OR SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AS MID LEVEL STREAK/SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ATTM. ANY STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 6Z WITH WEAK RIDGING
TAKING HOLD FOR MUCH OF MONDAY.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING MIXES THIS LAYER OUT.
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING PEAK HEATING. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH MID 80S F FOR HIGHS...AND DEW POINTS
AROUND 70 F. MEAN LAYER CAPES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED. 0
TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES...2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A CAP TO BE OVERCOME...WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR BETWEEN 21Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE FRONT...BEGINNING AS DISCRETE CELLS
BEFORE BECOMING MORE LINEAR IN NATURE. SPC HAS AREA IN SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS IN DAY 1 OUTLOOK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. 0 TO
1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS DOES SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
RISK AS WELL...WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY
06Z MONDAY...ONCE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR
LOWS TONIGHT.
MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT AS
A SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH. INCREASED POPS GIVEN DECENT WARM
ADVECTION IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. LOOKS LIKE A BIT LESS OF A SEVERE CHANCE THAN TODAY DUE
THE LATER TIMING AND LESS INSTABILITY...THOUGH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL PROBABLY KEEP THINGS INTERESTING. SPC DOES
HAVE THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK INTO THE FAR WEST FORECAST AREA.
TEMPS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE AGAIN...WITH 925
MB TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 22-24C RANGE. SHOULD SEE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF SUN...SO WENT MID 80S MOST PLACES.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND AN INCH TUE...AND EVEN
LESS THAN THAT WED. FORCING IS ON THE WEAK SIDE TOO...SO KEPT
POPS ON THE LOW END.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY KICK OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS LATER FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY
END TO THE WORK WEEK. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL THU-SAT.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
MVFR CEILINGS WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS ACROSS MADISON...WITH THE EASTERN SITES IN AND OUT OF IT.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 18Z SUNDAY. SOUTH SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES BY THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 22 KNOTS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
DEVELOP AS WELL.
COLD FRONT WITH THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT MADISON BETWEEN 22Z
SUNDAY AND 02Z MONDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
SUNDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS...ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ALTERNATE MINIMUMS.
WINDS WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER 06Z MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY THINNING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FROM 18Z SUNDAY TO 03Z MONDAY ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. FREQUENT SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 22 TO
25 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THIS TIME...WITH GOOD MIXING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET NEAR SHEBOYGAN...WITH
2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES TO THE SOUTH. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT
AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
BEACHES...
A MODERATE SWIM RISK IS EXPECTED FOR SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTY
BEACHES ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND
GUSTY...GENERATING WAVES OF UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET. THIS WILL POSE SOME
RISK TO SWIMMERS IN THESE AREAS. WILL NOT ISSUE A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
245 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SFC HIGH PRES WAS SITUATED TO THE E OF AR THIS AFTN...ALLOWING SLY
WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS RETURNED IN
EARNEST OVR THE LAST 24 HOURS AS NOTED WITH LATEST DEWPOINT READINGS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACRS THE FA.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT WAS NOTED ACRS SWRN MO EARLIER IN THE DAY
HAS CONTD TO WEAKEN. THE RESULTING MCV IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOLY TO
THE SE INTO THE EVENING. THE HRRR CONTS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS FEATURE AND DOES INDC SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FORMING ACRS
PARTS OF NRN AR THRU THE LATE AFTN. WL CONT TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
AND DECIDE BEFORE ISSUANCE TIME WHETHER TO INCLUDE SOME POPS THIS
EVENING IN THE N.
THE WX PATTERN WL BCM MORE UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK. HIGH PRES ALOFT WL SHIFT FURTHER WWD AND SET UP OVR
THE WRN PART OF THE NATION. THE RESULTING NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A
FNTL BNDRY SWD INTO AR STARTING LATE TUE/TUE NGT...WITH THE BNDRY TO
MEANDER OVR THE FA THRU THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.
AS A RESULT...CONVECTIVE CHCS WL BE ON THE UPSWING FM N TO S...ESP
LATE TUE THRU WED. WHILE WIDESPREAD SVR WX IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A
FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE TUE NGT AND WED. SHLD THE BNDRY
HOLD UP LONGER OVR A GIVEN AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE A
CONCERN. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FM MOS TEMPS THRU THE PD.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ARKANSAS AS THE
PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY. BROAD-BRUSHED CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY IN THE EAST. UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST OF ARKANSAS
ON FRIDAY...PUSHING THE REMNANT BOUNDARY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
LIKELY BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE FORECAST AREA HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH A NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE IN THE
LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN THAT WILL CARRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
IS EVEN HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WILL JUST ADVERTISE WIDESPREAD MID
90S FOR THE TIME BEING. RECENT RAINS AS WELL AS THOSE EXPECTED THIS
WEEK SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL TO GET TO 100 DEGREES...MUCH LESS
BEYOND. NEVERTHELESS...IT DOES SEEM LIKE NEXT WEEKEND MAY FEATURE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT.
TO END ON A POSITIVE NOTE THOUGH...LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY
FORECAST THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANY OPPRESSIVE HEAT MAY BE SHORT
LIVED AND A RETURN TO NORMAL OR POSSIBLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
COULD OCCUR. TIME WILL TELL.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...64
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
107 PM PDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL KEEP
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER
THE SIERRA NEVADA AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION CONTINUES TO BRING ABUNDANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO AZ AND
NV...AND EVEN INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
FORMED OVER THE SIERRA CREST IN TULARE COUNTY...BUT HAVE BEEN VERY
ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
THE NAM INDICATE THAT THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AND PEAK AROUND THE 22Z...THE WARMEST PART OF THE
DAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST...SO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED...AND MAY NOT EVEN IMPACT THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO LOW WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...THE VALLEY IS ON ITS WAY TO ANOTHER TRIPLE DIGIT
DAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE MARK FOR MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS...NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY AND
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE FOUR
CORNERS UPPER HIGH REMAINING FIRMLY IN PLACE INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE SIERRA CREST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES TO THE VALLEY AND DESERT LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SHIFTING
THE THUNDERSTORM MOISTURE SOURCE TO THE EAST AS WELL. ALTHOUGH WE
DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CREST ON
FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ANOTHER RESULT OF THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTING EAST WILL BE A VERY SUBTLE COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
AREA. ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 100
DEGREE MARK...BUT WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL HARDLY BE NOTICEABLE...AND STILL SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KERN COUNTY
DESERTS...TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA THRU 06Z MON AND OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA AFTER 20Z MON. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-06 111:2007 83:1903 78:2007 50:1955
KFAT 07-07 111:1905 84:1891 76:1936 53:1903
KFAT 07-08 115:1905 84:1983 81:1896 51:1891
KBFL 07-06 116:1913 85:1955 81:2011 52:1915
KBFL 07-07 114:1905 85:1983 81:1968 46:1903
KBFL 07-08 114:1905 85:1983 79:1907 50:1899
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
554 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
CLOUDS TODAY CONTINUE TO COMPLICATE THIS EVENINGS CONVECTION
CHANCES. LOW LEVEL STRATUS WHICH FORMED IN THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
FEED ACROSS THE AREA HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FORECAST. ALOFT WE ARE ALSO DEALING WITH A SUFFICIENT
MID LEVEL CAP AT H700 WITH TEMPS FROM 10 TO 12C IN THE WARM SECTOR
THAT HAS TENDED TO KEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. COMBINED WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING COOL FRONT...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO TAKE OFF ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
MN/WESTERN WI. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT CAP SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG AND WEST OF I35 THIS EVENING...WHILE ERODING EAST OF THAT LINE
WITH THE HELP OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD BUILD BACK
WEST SOUTHWEST WITH TIME THROUGH 06Z. GENERALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SINCE THE CAP ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER AS
THE STORMS MOVE BACK WEST INTO IOWA. NEARLY ALL THE MODELS INCLUDING
THE HRRR FAVOR THIS SCENARIO. SO...HAVE TRIMMED POP/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FROM I35 WEST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG THE IA/MO
BORDER WHERE LATE MID EVENING SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION MAY LINGER
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AIRMASS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN IA STILL
RATHER UNSTABLE AND ANY STORMS THAT BUILD BACK TO THE WEST WILL
STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PRODUCE SVR WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
INITIALLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET MONDAY MORNING WITH
SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED IN MO/KS. SHORTWAVE WILL BE RAPIDLY
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ALL
INDICATE SURFACE MOISTURE RETURNING WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE
U60S/L70S BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF IOWA AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
FOCUS OF THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY IMPACT SOUTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF
THE STATE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS AGAIN MAY BE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATE WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
PRODUCE CONVECTION FARTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF CENTRAL IOWA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT WITH LESS
COVERAGE.
DRIER AIR WILL FITLER INTO THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. BOTH GFS AND EURO
CONTINUE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WITH NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE
THE NEXT APPRECIABLE THREAT OF CONVECTION WITH GFS TRYING TO
LINGER ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND AS IT LEAVES THE FRONT
IN VICINITY OF IA. EURO PUSHES THE BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...06/00Z
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
COLD FRONT ACROSS IA FROM NERN CORNER TO THE SWRN CORNER WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND BE SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 06Z. SCATTERED LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND THE ERN TAF SITES
EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE
SOME MVFR FOG CONDITIONS DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE. LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE. EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE STATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OUT TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS WED THROUGH THU.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...MS JUL 14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
319 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
CLOUDS TODAY CONTINUE TO COMPLICATE THIS EVENINGS CONVECTION
CHANCES. LOW LEVEL STRATUS WHICH FORMED IN THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
FEED ACROSS THE AREA HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FORECAST. ALOFT WE ARE ALSO DEALING WITH A SUFFICIENT
MID LEVEL CAP AT H700 WITH TEMPS FROM 10 TO 12C IN THE WARM SECTOR
THAT HAS TENDED TO KEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. COMBINED WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING COOL FRONT...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO TAKE OFF ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
MN/WESTERN WI. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT CAP SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG AND WEST OF I35 THIS EVENING...WHILE ERODING EAST OF THAT LINE
WITH THE HELP OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD BUILD BACK
WEST SOUTHWEST WITH TIME THROUGH 06Z. GENERALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SINCE THE CAP ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER AS
THE STORMS MOVE BACK WEST INTO IOWA. NEARLY ALL THE MODELS INCLUDING
THE HRRR FAVOR THIS SCENARIO. SO...HAVE TRIMMED POP/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FROM I35 WEST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG THE IA/MO
BORDER WHERE LATE MID EVENING SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION MAY LINGER
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AIRMASS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN IA STILL
RATHER UNSTABLE AND ANY STORMS THAT BUILD BACK TO THE WEST WILL
STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PRODUCE SVR WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
INITIALLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET MONDAY MORNING WITH
SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED IN MO/KS. SHORTWAVE WILL BE RAPIDLY
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ALL
INDICATE SURFACE MOISTURE RETURNING WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE
U60S/L70S BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF IOWA AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
FOCUS OF THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY IMPACT SOUTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF
THE STATE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS AGAIN MAY BE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATE WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
PRODUCE CONVECTION FARTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF CENTRAL IOWA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT WITH LESS
COVERAGE.
DRIER AIR WILL FITLER INTO THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. BOTH GFS AND EURO
CONTINUE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WITH NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE
THE NEXT APPRECIABLE THREAT OF CONVECTION WITH GFS TRYING TO
LINGER ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND AS IT LEAVES THE FRONT
IN VICINITY OF IA. EURO PUSHES THE BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...06/18Z
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
MAIN CONCERNS REMAIN THE LOW CLOUDS NORTH AND POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS MN
CREATED A LARGE CI SHIELD WHICH HAS KEPT LOW ST FROM BURNING OFF
THROUGH THE MORNING OVER THE NORTH. MVFR ST ALSO FORMED IN AREA
OF MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
CIGS WILL LIFT MORE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INSTABILITY
BUILDING WEST. OVER THE NORTHEAST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WOULD FAVOR SOME CONVECTION FOR KMCW...KALO THROUGH 00Z.
ELSEWHERE...SOME CONCERNS THAT STRONG CAP SHOWING UP IN BUFR
SOUNDINGS WILL HOLD FOR KDSM AND KOTM EVEN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CURRENT CONVECTION REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA ALONG
BOUNDARY FROM WEST CENTRAL WI TO KMSP. WILL MONITOR FOR ANY
EXPANSION INTO CENTRAL IOWA BUT FOR NOW...TRENDS SUGGEST NORTHEAST
SECTIONS MOST AT RISK FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
208 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
POISED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A SURFACE TROUGH DIVIDING GENERALLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FA
FROM THE SOUTHEAST HALF WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS POINT FOR SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING. CAPE IS AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST FA WITH INCREASING CIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. VERY
WARM H7 TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. FOR THIS REASON WILL
KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS EVENING.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE FRONT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
NAM ON MONDAY. THE GFS IS LATER WITH PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. FOR THIS REASON PLAN TO KEEP POPS LOWER MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FORCING IS INDICATED BY BOTH MODELS BUT MOISTURE IS LESS
THAN IDEAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. COOLER
LOWER 90S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS
INCREASED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL RETURN TO
THE AREA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FOLLOWS THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DRY ENVIRONMENT BELOW 600MB
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT SATURATE ABOVE THIS LAYER.
IN ADDITION THETA-E LAPSE RATES ABOVE 600MB CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
DUE TO THE LACK OF CAPE. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE EAST SO
LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT RECEIVING
RAINFALL. AFTER MIDNIGHT STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE
LIFT DECLINES WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY A HIGH PRESSURE AT 850MB MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND THE
RIDGE THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST AS A
WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SURFACE CAPE
TO WORK WITH BUT BASED ON THE SOUNDING PROFILES...DOUBT MORE THAN
ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER KIT
CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES.
BY TUESDAY EVENING STORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE AREA ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. HOWEVER NOT TOO
OPTIMISTIC OF STORM DEVELOP SINCE THE BEST SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE EAST...SO THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY STORMS MAY MOVE INTO KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES
FROM THE WEST. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE LATE EVENING AS
THE ENVIRONMENT STABILIZES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL NOT VERY IMPRESSED WITH THE
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THE RATHER BROAD NATURE OF THE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THE RIDGE. RAINFALL CHANCES LOOK BETTER SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD
AND KMCK AROUND 00Z MONDAY. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES A FEW STORMS
NEAR BOTH SITES AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH A TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT NEAR KMCK FOR STORMS TO INITIATE ON. ALSO UP SLOPE FLOW INTO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO MAY PRODUCE A FEW STORMS THAT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE KANSAS BORDER INTO THE KGLD AREA. STORMS WILL
BE BRIEF WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1120 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...ALTHOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST AROUND
100 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE SURFACE CONVERGENT AREA
NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHARPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
NORTHWEST FLOW OF THE INCREASING AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THIS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED CLIP THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
SKY COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH A
GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE AVERAGE OF THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE. THE COLD FRONT MAY GET HUNG UP ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND EXTEND INTO THE VICINITY OF THE
PANHANDLE REGION...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ADDITIONAL IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014
A FAIRLY SEASONABLE PATTERN THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER HIGH/RIDGE WILL EVOLVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION DURING
THIS PERIOD PROVIDING GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS. SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE ECMWF QUICK TO BUILD ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE WEST
WHILE THE GFS/GEFS KEEP A NEARLY-FLAT RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE WEEKEND. AT LOW LEVELS FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH...BRINGING WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE MAY HAVE A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVE UP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT LOOKS LIKELY A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY. OTHERWISE WILL RELY ON TERRAIN AND
SMALLER-SCALE OUTFLOW FEATURES TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS EACH
DAY.
THIS PERIOD IS APPROACHING THE HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR /JULY 13-15
BASED ON 1982-2010 NORMALS/ AND AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR WE
WILL BE TOO FAR OFF FROM NORMAL /90.3 TO 90.5 ACROSS THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD/. TEMPS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THIS RANGE...WITH THE
HOTTEST DAY LOOKING LIKE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHEN 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 30S C...INDICATIVE OF HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SPOTS REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS. LOWS WILL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...EXCEPT ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE LOWS ARE
MORE LIKE THE LOW 70S.
AM NOT PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD
DUE TO THE INHIBITION PROVIDED BY THE VERY WARM LOW/MID LEVELS
/700MB TEMPS OVER 14C MOST OF THE TIME/. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL HAVE OVER 1500 J/KG
MUCAPE AVAILABLE WITH AROUND 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. T-TD SPREAD
AT THE SURFACE WILL BE AROUND 25 DEG F...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE 5 TO 10KTS...NOT
PARTICULARLY FAST...BUT PWATS HAVE TRENDED LOW IN RECENT MODEL RUNS
/NOW IN THE 1.2 TO 1.4 INCH RANGE INSTEAD OF THE 1.5-PLUS RANGE/ SO
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY NOT BE AS BIG OF A CONCERN AS FIRST THOUGHT.
UPPER FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY WAY OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
MOSTLY TERRAIN-BASED WITH PERHAPS A FEW CELLS FORMING ALONG A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE COLORADO PLAINS.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...PRECIP CHANCES ARE MARGINAL THURS/FRI DUE
TO CAPPING AND RELATIVELY WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY MAY MODIFY THE
ENVIRONMENT TO BETTER SUPPORT STORMS DURING THESE DAYS. WIND SHEAR
WILL BE MUCH LESS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...AND THUS EXPECT
MORE WEAK TERRAIN-BASED AND PULSE STORMS. SATURDAY DO EXPECT STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT VERY STEEP...SO STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT APPEAR
LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD
AND KMCK AROUND 00Z MONDAY. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES A FEW STORMS
NEAR BOTH SITES AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH A TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT NEAR KMCK FOR STORMS TO INITIATE ON. ALSO UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO MAY PRODUCE A FEW STORMS THAT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE KANSAS BORDER INTO THE KGLD AREA. STORMS WILL
BE BRIEF WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
639 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TO 60% FOR THE
NORTHERN AREAS AS THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED AN AREA OF SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN MAINE ESE INTO NE MAINE. THIS AREAS OF
SHOWERS WAS DUE TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MAINE
AS SEEN ON THE LATEST WV SATELLITE LOOP. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WHILE S
OF THE FRONT, READINGS WERE WELL INTO THE 70S. THE LATEST HRRR AND
RUC BOTH MATCHED UP CLOSE W/THIS SETUP AND SHOWED SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDING FURTHER S INTO PORTIONS AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. THEREFORE, ADDED A MENTION FOR A SHOWERS IN THESE
AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT N OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT W/SHOWERS PULLING OUT OF THE AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE HAS BROUGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH. THIS WEAKER SYSTEM HAS ALSO
BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS HAS SUPPRESSED
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH WHILE THOSE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE ENJOYED MORE SUNSHINE WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
KEEP INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT WHILE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO STAY DRY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION AS WE GO INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION AS WE GO INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/TROF WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. EXPECT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT...THOUGH THE EXTENT OF
COVERAGE IS ALSO STILL UNCERTAIN DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TIMING
OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT EXITS MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN
END. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FILLS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN
GIVES WAY TO RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND. DRY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
MAINE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SITES WILL STAY MOSTLY VFR WITH NORTHERN SITES GOING MVFR
WITH DISTURBANCE AND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
SOME SITES COULD BE REDUCED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AWAY FROM ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS
IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM 3 TO 5 FT TO 4 TO 6 FT LATER
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED SW FLOW.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/JORDAN/NORCROSS
MARINE...HEWITT/JORDAN/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
427 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DOWNSTREAM FROM A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND WRN PLAINS. A PROMINENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NW ONTARIO TO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NE MN FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR CYPL.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS COVER OVER THE REGION HAS INHIBITED DIABATIC HEATING
AND KEPT MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE OVER MAINLY THE
WRN THIRD OF UPPER MI. AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER NE WI NEAR TO IMT
AND NEAR MNM WAS SUPPORTED BY WEAK TO MODERATE 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV AND 30 KNOT WSW 850-750 INFLOW PUSHING MUCAPE VALUES TO 1K
J/KG. ADDITIONAL STRONG TSRA WERE LOCATED OVER NE MN WERE LOCATED
NEAR THE COLD FRONT.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH SOME LATE AFTERNOON CLEARING
OVER WRN UPPER MI...ADDITIONAL HEATING MAY BOOST MLCAPE VALUES INTO
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA
BTWN 21Z-24Z...SCT/NMRS TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THAT
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...SUPPORTED BY 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE
35-40 KNOT RANGE. THE SHRA/TSRA WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ERN CWA
BTWN 00Z-03Z AND END OVER THE CNTRL CWA...AS THE COLD FRONT
ADVANCES. EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST.
MONDAY...EXPECT DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSRA WAS INCLUDED OVER THE FAR SW CWA AS A WEAK SHRTWV NEAR
THE AREA IN CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH OVER NRN
MANITOBA AND NRN ONTARIO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...WITH TYPICAL MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON MAGNITUDE AND PATH OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE ALONG OR S/SW OF THE WRN AND
SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR THESE LOCATIONS
FOR THE BEST POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. CONTINUED TO ONLY HAVE
CHANCE POPS DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED THAN WITH
THE PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE...SO CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF EVEN LOWER POPS
/SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE/ DURING THIS TIME.
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE MORE LIMITED WITH TIME...SO ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRI AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AFTER RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER
TUE AND WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S...THE RIDGE WILL BRING
A WARMING TREND AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S /OR EVEN THE
LOW 80S/ INLAND ON FRI.
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRI THROUGH
SAT...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. SUN COULD SEE SOME PRECIP IF THE ECMWF FORECAST VERIFIES
IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE NEAR THE CWA...BUT THE GFS HAS A DRY
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
SOME EARLY AFTERNOON LOW CLOUDS AT SAW WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS
WITH MID CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA BY MID
AFTERNOON OVER WRN UPPER MI AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO CNTRL UPPER
MI. SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WITH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE/POSITION...ONLY VCTS WAS
MENTIONED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY ADVECTION WILL BRING IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AT CMX AND MON MORNING AT IWD/SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO MONDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONG
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS/. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS N MINNESOTA AND W
ONTARIO WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND N LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...BEFORE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY. BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT...AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SINK
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
352 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE EAST AT ABOUT 20
KTS ACROSS MN TODAY...AND AT 3PM WAS IN THE PROCESS OF WORKING
ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES. MORNING CLOUDS SLOWED DOWN THE WARMING IN
THE TWIN CITIES...BUT THERE IS STILL HOPE FOR OUR FIRST 90 DEGREE
TEMP THIS YEAR AS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 2 HOUR WINDOW WHERE WE CAN
STILL WARM BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THE CAA KICKS IN. WE HAVE SEEN
PLACES LIKE REDWOOD FALLS...GLENCOE...AND NEW ULM HIT 90 IN THIS
ZONE AND IT WILL BE HITTING THE TWIN CITIES STILL DURING PEAK
HEATING BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM...SO DON/T GIVE UP HOPE ON THAT FIRST
90 JUST YET!
AS FOR STORM POTENTIAL...ACTIVITY OVER WI HAS BEEN ELEVATED...WITH
THE ATMO STILL CAPPED WITH RESPECT TO SFC BASED CONVECTION PER THE
STABLE CU FIELD /AT 230 PM/ STILL IN PLACE OVER WHAT IS A VERY JUICY
WARM SECTOR...WHERE DEWPS HAVE BEEN COMMONLY RISEN UP INTO THE MID
70S. STILL LOTS OF DISAGREEMENT WITH WHETHER OR NOT THIS FRONT WILL
EVEN GENERATE CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT...ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WRN MN AS EVIDENCED
BY DRYING ON WATER VAPOR BACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...PREFER THE IDEA
THE HRRR AND MEMBER1 OF THE 15Z HOPWRF SHOW WITH A SCT LINE OF
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AROUND 20Z AND QUICKLY SPREADING
EAST. THIS WOULD PLACE THE THUNDER THREAT MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
AN ALBERT LEA TO RICE LAKE LINE. SFC WINDS HAVE VEERED CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MINIMAL TORNADO THREAT...BUT
2K-4K J/KG OF MLCAPE...H7-H5 LAPSE RATES UP OVER 7 DEG C/KM...AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
WIND/HAIL THREAT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE IOWA BORDER WHERE
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE BETTER.
WILL SEE SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...BUT CONSISTENT NW WINDS WILL
BRING IN DEWPS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FOG
POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NRN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP INTO NODAK TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NODAK THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY SEND
SHOWERS/STORMS TOWARD CENTRAL MN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MORE ROBUST STORM COVERAGE OVER THE MPX CWA IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT STRONG SASKATCHEWAN WAVE
MOVES INTO WRN MN. FOR THIS WAVE...PREFERRED A GEM/ECMWF/GFS BLEND
FOR ITS TIMING. THE NAM IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH THE
WAVE...PLACING IT OVER ERN MN BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AS
OPPOSED TO WRN MN AS THE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING BASED ON THEIR QPF
FIELDS...BUT THE CAMS SHOW ACTIVITY BEING NOTICEABLY MORE SCATTERED
OVER MN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THERE
REALLY IS NO STRONG SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO THE CAMS ARE SIMPLY GENERATING CONVECTION WHERE THEY
CAN DEVELOP ENOUGH INSTABILITY.
THOUGH NW FLOW IS EXPECTED...1.5-2.5K J/KG OF MLCAPE COMBINED WITH
50-60 KTS OF BULK SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SEVERE
THREAT. HODOGRAPHS FOR MONDAY ARE MOSTLY LONG STRAIGHT
LINES...INDICATING THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL FROM
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. IF ENOUGH STORMS CAN INITIATE...WE WOULD
LIKELY END UP WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS OR TWO THAT WOULD HAVE A WIND
TREAT AS WELL. HIGHER LCLS /DUE TO THE DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
EXPECTED/ ALONG WITH THE SHEAR BEING MAINLY OF THE SPEED VARIETY
/WITH LITTLE DIRECTION CHANGE/ WILL GREATLY LIMIT ANY TORNADO
THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
WHILE THE BEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 21-00Z
IN WESTERN MN...EASTERN MN WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT THUNDER
BETWEEN 00-03Z...AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER IN WESTERN WI. THE MID-
LEVEL DRYING ARRIVES QUICKLY BETWEEN 03-06Z IN THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...SO THE PRECIP SHOULD GET QUICKLY SHUFFLED OFF TO
THE EAST LATE TOMORROW EVENING.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING INTO THE PLAINS AND
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
BREEZY...OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FLATTENS AS IT
SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER WITH RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING IN WESTERN MN IN THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL IMPROVE A FEW DEGREES. THE EAST WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF
AN 850MN COLD POCKET CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MODEL
CONSISTENCY ISN`T AS GOOD LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WEAK WAVES TO TRACK
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES REMAIN TOO DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT WITH EACH MODEL SHOWING SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
TIMING AND LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT - DID NOT REALLY ALTER THE POPS
MUCH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMATE NORMALS DURING THE PERIOD.
AFTER MONDAY...THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL PROBABILITY FOR PRECIP ARRIVES
ON THURSDAY WHEN THE FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE W-SW AND WARM
ADVECTION ARRIVES FROM THE DAKOTAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
COLD FRONT MAKING STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS MN THIS AFTERNOON AND AT
18Z STRETCHED FROM ABOUT MILLE LACS LAKE DOWN TO WORTHINGTON...SO
JUST ABOUT READY TO MOVE INTO THE WRN TWIN CITIES METRO AREA. SCT
STORMS OVER WRN WI ARE ELEVATED...WITH SFC BASED STORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AROUND 20Z. BY THEN THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE JUST CLEARING MSP AND NEARING RNH...SO STILL LOOKS LIKE
FIELD WITH BEST CHANCE FOR TS WITH THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON IS
EAU...WHERE A VCTS WAS MAINTAINED...BUT SHIFTED AN HOUR LATER TO
BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET...WITH VFR
CONDS AND WNW-NW WINDS PREVAILING. OVERNIGHT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NODAK...WITH REMNANTS OF THAT ACTIVITY
LIKELY DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL MN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING.
CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE IS LOW...SO
STUCK WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A VCSH TOWARD THE END OF THE AXN/STC
TAFS. MORE ROBUST TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MPX AREA IS EXPECTED
AFTER 18Z MON AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE COMES OUT OF THE DAKOTAS.
KMSP...LOOKS LIKE SFC BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL
START TO DEVELOP JUST AS THE FRONT IS CLEARING MSP...SO ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FIELD. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WOULD COME BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z MON MORNING AND THAT WOULD
BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY REMNANTS OF STORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER NODAK TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...SPREAD IN MODELS IS
HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE TAF MON MORNING.
BETTER TSRA CHANCES EXPECTED MON AFTERNOON AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO WRN MN. FAVORED THE TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM WITH A
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE AND RESULTANT SLOWER ARRIVAL OF
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY THAN WHAT THE NAM HAS. ONCE THESE PESKY LOW
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT TODAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN REST OF TAF BEING
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY PRECIP.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 TO 20 KT.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5 TO 15 KT.
THU...VFR. CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT. WIND S 10 TO 15 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
304 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
(Tonight)
Still expect thunderstorms to redevelop along the cold front where
MLCAPES are 5000+ J/kg across Iowa. These storms should move
southeast into the northern half of the CWA during the late evening
and overnight hours as both the NAM/GFS are in good agreement that
shortwave trough currently over the upper Midwest will move in sync
with the cold front across the CWA tonight. Latest runs of HRRR are
showing that storms will dissipate before reaching the CWA, but the
amount of forcing and instability warrant keeping at least the
chance pops already going in the forecast. The simulated
reflectivity of the explicit runs of the WRF show a line of storms
moving southward across the entire CWA between 02-08Z. Also can`t
rule out a few severe thunderstorms later this evening given the
amount of instability and deep layer shear forecast to be around
30kts.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
(Monday and Tuesday)
Main concern will be the potential for a few severe thunderstorms on
Monday afternoon and night.
GFS and NAM both show that upper flow will be west northwesterly on
Monday with the front becoming stalled by midday across the central
part of the CWA. Temperatures in the lower to middle 90s and
dewpoints in the 70s will cause the atmosphere to become very
unstable under 7+C/km mid level lapse rates. Scattered
thunderstorms may develop along the front as the CINH erodes during
the day. Couldn`t rule out that any storms that develop Monday
afternoon would be severe because of the amount of the instability.
Thunderstorms will be more likely on Monday night when a shortwave
trough moves southeast through the upper flow. A complex of
thunderstorms will likely move southeast through the area along the
front. This complex may be severe given deep layer sheer 40+ kts
and produce locally heavy rainfall rates given precipitable waters
over 2 inches. Damaging winds appear to be the primary
threat...though large hail and isolated tornadoes are also
possible.
By Tuesday the cold front will still be over the south part of the
CWA during the early afternoon hours. There may still be some
chance for a few severe thunderstorms along the front as they
initiate before the it moves south of the CWA by 00Z.
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
GFS and ECMWF still show that the cold front will extend from the
Mid South back into the central Plains Wednesday and Thursday
leaving us dry. 850mb temps are progged to be in the 12-16C range
with southeasterly winds from the retreating surface high which will
bring us below normal temperatures. The front will begin to move
north as a warm front Friday into Saturday which will increase
temperatures and thunderstorm chances. The GFS and ECMWF both show
a cold front dropping southeastward in northwest flow by next
Sunday, so will keep the chance of rain going into the latter half
of next weekend.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
Another tricky forecast when it comes to convective trends this
forecast period. Activity from this morning has all but diminished
across the area, however, a disturbance that will move through the
region this afternoon could initiate some diurnal
showers/thunderstorms that could impact metro area TAF sites.
Given uncertainties in timing and the exact location of any storms
that develop, have maintained VCTS mention for KSTL, KSUS, and
KCPS this afternoon. A front to the north of the area will sag
southward overnight tonight, with showers and thunderstorms
expected to impact KUIN by 06Z. Uncertainty remains regarding how
far south any nocturnal activity will make it, though models
indicate at least some light precipitation across central and
eastern Missouri by daybreak. Thus, have mentioned VCSH for KCOU
and metro TAF sites in the 09-13Z time frame, though this trend will
likely need revisited in future TAF issuances. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail outside of any storms, with winds
gradually veering more southwesterly through the period.
Specifics for KSTL:
Currently expect VFR conditions to prevail through the forecast
period. There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding convective
trends, with the possibility of diurnal shower/thunderstorm
development later this afternoon. Have maintained the VCTS mention
from 21-00Z, as the timing and exact location of any storms cannot
be pinned down at this time. The other concern is that of
precipitation that could impact the terminal after roughly 09Z
tonight, associated with a cold front that will slowly sag into
northern Missouri overnight. While it appears a bulk of the
precipitation would remain north of KSTL, models are indicating
at least some light precipitation by daybreak, hence have included
VCSH mention from 09-13Z. This will likely need refined in future
TAF issuances. Otherwise, southwesterly winds will continue to
slowly veer, becoming west-southwesterly by the end of the period.
JP
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1235 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
Appears HRRR had the best handle on the progress of the MCS
remnants up to the present as stratiform showers and scattered
convection have descended into southwest Missouri. Warming
depicted by IR satellite though would suggest a general decrease
in lift across the region associated with a dampening shortwave.
Forecast update maintains southward moving precipitation through
late morning...becoming more scattered in association with
remnant MCV this afternoon.
High temperatures have been reduced at least a category across
all regions due to cloud cover though do anticipate some recovery
in the west as sunshine resumes and south winds pick back up this
afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
Thunderstorms have developed across north central Missouri to
the southwest into southeastern Kansas early this morning. This
activity has developed on the nose of a low level jet a ahead of a
weak upper level disturbance that is tracking south through the
region. This activity will continue to develop and track to the
south this morning and will mainly affect locations along an
northwest of an Anderson to Bolivar to Vichy Missouri line this
morning. This activity will weaken and dissipate by the mid
morning hours with the strongest activity generally occurring
before sunrise this morning. A few strong storms will be possible
early this morning with hail to the size of pennies the main risk
mainly before 7 AM this morning then storms should generally
weaken as the morning moves a long.
A warmer and more humid air mass is spreading north into the
region and highs will top out in the upper 80s to the lower 90s
this afternoon with heat index values in the middle 90s to near
the 100 degree mark.
Isolated storms could develop mainly east of Highway 65 this
afternoon, but some capping is not expected to completely erode
and there will not be much in the way of forcing in place.
Therefore, this activity will be very isolated, if it can
develop at all, and most locations will remain dry. If storms are
able to develop this afternoon, instability will increase in
excess of 2000J/kg of ML Cape and this instability and theta-E
differences greater than 25K would support a localized downburst
wind risk with a few of the storms that can develop.
Hot and humid conditions will occur again Monday as highs top out
in the lower to middle 90s with heat index values in the upper
90s to around 100 degrees. An unstable air mass will once again be
over the area, and with the heating of the day the cap should
weaken enough for scattered storms to develop Monday afternoon.
Theta-E differences greater than 25K combined with the unstably
air mass will once again support a risk for localized damaging
straight line winds with a few of the stronger storms Monday
afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
An upper level trough will move out of the northern Plains on
Monday night and southeast into the region on Tuesday along with a
weak cold front. Storms are expected to develop along the front as
it pushes south through the area. There will be a risk for strong
to severe storms Tuesday afternoon given a moist and unstable air
mass along with an increase in deep layer shear with the approach
of the upper level trough. Hail to the size of quarters and winds
in excess of 60 mph will be the main risks with this activity.
Slightly cooler conditions will occur on Wednesday and Thursday
behind the front with highs in the middle to upper 80s. An upper
level ridge will begin to build towards the region by late in the
week sending the front back to the north. A few storms may develop
on Thursday and Friday as the front moves north. Warmer conditions
are then expected this weekend as highs warm back into the 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
Cluster of SHRA with embedded TSRA already impacting KJLN and
KSGF to spread into the KBBG region this afternoon. Current
activity to diminish in coverage as shortwave weakens and departs
region. Ceilings to clear northwest to southeast during the
afternoon...with KBBG clearing this evening.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Runnels
SHORT TERM...RUNNELS
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...RUNNELS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
324 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEVADA WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO SWRN CANADA. A
SECONDARY HIGH WAS OVER NERN ALASKA WITH A SHARPER AMPLITUDE RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A TANDEM
OF DECENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WERE PRESENT FROM NORTHERN
ALBERTA INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA. DOWNSTREAM OF THESE SHORTWAVES...50+
METER HT FALLS WERE NOTED OVER NRN MN...SWRN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. ANOTHER AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS NOTED OVER THE
OZARKS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD PASSED THROUGH
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF NOONTIME AND WAS ORIENTED
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR FORT MORGAN COLORADO...TO MCCOOK TO SIOUX
CITY IA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT...RANGED FROM 86 AT VALENTINE
TO 95 AT IMPERIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT OVER NEBRASKA HAS PASSED THROUGH ALL OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT REMAIN IN THE
60S...WITH SB CAPE OF 2K J/KG OR HIGHER FROM ABOUT KOGA TO KBBW AND
AREAS TO THE SOUTH...LAPS SOUNDINGS AND SPC/S MESOANALYSIS PAGE
SUGGEST A SLIGHT CAP REMAINS IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
CAP AND A LACK OF FORCING TO HELP GET ANY ACTIVITY GOING DON/T
EXPECT ANY STORMS LOCALLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF THE FRONT CIN HAS
DIMINISHED SO COULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS. DON/T EXPECT
THE FRONT TO LIFT NORTH SO HAVE NOT RE-INTRODUCED ANY CHANCES TO THE
AREA THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT.
LATER TONIGHT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM...GFS AND TO A POINT
THE RAP SHOW A VERY WEAK PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE SAME AREA WILL SEE POOLING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S AND THERE IS SUGGESTION
OF A BIT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ROUGHLY IN THE
VICINITY OF A LINE FROM KBBW TO KEAR AND KHGI. CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH
ON ANY OF THIS CONVECTION OCCURRING...NOR HAVING IT OCCUR IN THE
FORECAST AREA BUT FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH SIGNALS TO AT LEAST WARRANT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THEN...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NORTH OF MONTANA WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND APPROACH NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA IN THE MORNING.
WITH THE RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT...WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD
1-2K J/KG OF SB CAPE IN THE MORNING AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASING WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING IN CAN/T DISCOUNT A FEW STORMS
GAINING STRENGTH TO BE A STRONGER STORM. AT THIS TIME DON/T FORESEE
ANY SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS AND THEN
FOCUSES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS WHERE THE FRONT
FROM TODAY WILL REMAIN. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT
THIS POINT...CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL HAVE INCREASED A BIT SO
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE. STILL NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOCALLY AS THE PRIMARY
CONVERGENCE AREA LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ORIENTED SOUTH OVER THE FRONT. OVER THESE
AREAS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGH ONCE AGAIN...AT 120 TO
140 PERCENT OF NORMAL. HIGH WATER CONTENT...ALONG WITH A WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED FRONT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT COULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL TRAINING STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN.
AGAIN...THINK THE HIGHER THREAT THOUGH WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THE MID RANGE ARE LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN MONDAY
NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO KANSAS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A THREAT FOR PCPN IN THE EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY EVENING...AS
DECENT MID LEVEL LIFT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS AREA IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE FORECAST AREA PER THE GFS SOLN
COMPARED TO THE NAM SOLN AS THE SURFACE FRONT IS FURTHER NORTH
COMPARED TO THE NAM SOLN. THIS PROBABLY HAS TO DO WITH THE STRENGTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH THE NAM IS STRONGER WITH
COMPARED TO THE GFS SOLN. INHERITED FCST HAD CHANCE POPS LINGERING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. POPS WERE LOWERED MONDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THE FASTER NAM SOLN...AS WELL AS MID LEVEL LIFT SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AS FOR THE THREAT FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...THE
BEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE EAST AND SERN
CWA WHERE SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE STRONG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELEMENTS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE IN THE EAST AND
SERN CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AS
WELL...ELIMINATING THE THREAT FOR PCPN TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST WHICH WILL GIVE A
BOOST TO OVERNIGHT LOWS WEST OF NORTH PLATTE. ANY PCPN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS...WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY. RIDGING ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB AND WILL APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TSRAS WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS SE FROM THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS INVOF THE BLACK
HILLS WEDS AFTN. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ANY STORMS WHICH
INITIATE MAY PUSH INTO THE NWRN CWA WEDS AFTN/EVENING. WILL KEEP
POPS ISOLATED FOR NOW AS MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND NWRN CWA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS USUALLY ALLOWS
A PLETHORA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE.
TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...SO
WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH PLENTY OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...SO
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT THE THE THREAT FOR STORMS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...UNDERCUT THE
LATEST MEX GUIDANCE AS IT CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM COMPARED TO THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS...AS WELL AS THE ECMX EURO GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS OUT OF MONTANA. DON/T HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
AREAS THAT WILL GET MOISTURE AS FORECAST MODELS DON/T HAVE A HIGH
LEVEL OF AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT STILL. HOWEVER...WITH THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND UPWARD MOTION LOOKING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE
MORNING HOURS DID ADD IN A PREVAILING VCTS AT KVTN WHERE THERE IS
A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND WHERE THE BETTER FORCING IS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE
SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PASSAGE OF RAINFALL WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AT 19Z. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CU DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO FAR BUT NOTABLY DRIER AIR
BEHIND IT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S. CONVERGENCE RATHER
WEAK AS FRONT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING
ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER THIS EVENING AND WASHING OUT
OVERNIGHT. HAVE CARRIED SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE
AREA FOR TONIGHT WHERE RAP MODEL SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL BUT ONLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED IT STORMS DO DEVELOP.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST HELPING TO PUSH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN EXISTS FOR THE SOUTHERN BORDER AREA MONDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON
ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS STORMS TAKE ON A WEST-EAST
ORIENTATION JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS WARM AND DRY FOR TUESDAY AND MOST OF
WEDNESDAY WITH LESS HUMIDITY AROUND AS FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
MOISTURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. SERIES OF ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DURING THE PERIOD INDICATED BY MODELS AS RIDGE
BUILDS AGAIN IN THE WEST WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STORMS FOR
THE AREA PRIMARILY DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS MID SUMMER PATTERN
TAKES SHAPE.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC CDFNT IS
THROUGH THE KOFK TERMINAL AND WILL BE THRU KOMA/KLNK BETWEEN
19-20Z. THIS WILL SWITCH THE WINDS TO N/NW THRU THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT IS TO MINIMAL TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF...AND IF IT OCCURRED WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KLNK AFTER 06Z.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MON LEADING TO CHCS FOR
TSRA BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1225 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
THERE ARE THREE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES CURRENTLY BEING
CONSIDERED:
-HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY
-CONVECTION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SOUTH
-SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AT 07Z...SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND HAD JUST MOVE
THROUGH PINE RIDGE. FRONT SHOULD REACH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS OVER FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
QUITE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH ONLY
SLIGHT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. ALOFT...WEAK RIDGING WAS NOTED
UPSTREAM WITH MINOR HEIGHT RISES AT 500 MB ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
NEBRASKA...WITH FAIRLY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THEREIN LIES THE QUESTION OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...TRYING TO
DETERMINE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION
TODAY IN A WARM AIRMASS WITH A MODEST CAP AND A LACK OF DEEP
VERTICAL MOTION FROM ANY DISTINCT LIFTING MECHANISM OTHER THAN
THE FRONT. THE 00Z NAM AND THE 06Z RAP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IN THE 22Z-23Z TIME
FRAME...AND THE 00Z GFS DEVELOPS IT SLIGHTLY POST FRONTAL BETWEEN
00Z-06Z. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE NAM AND RAP BOTH ERODE THE CAP
FROM ABOUT LINCOLN SOUTH...AND INDICATE VERTICAL MOTION ON THE
ORDER OF -4 MICROBARS/SEC THROUGH AROUND 600MB. GIVEN THESE
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS...WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA FROM 22Z-03Z.
REGARDING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TODAY...THE COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT IS A CONCERN BUT NEARLY FULL SUN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH. A DEGREE OR TWO DROP IN DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED
IN NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT NOT IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL WELL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. GENERALLY HAVE NOT MADE CHANGES TO TEMPS
TODAY...BUT DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON READINGS
SATURDAY. BOTTOM LINE IS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95-100 NORTH AND
100-105 SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE MOST SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN JUST
SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WET PATTERN FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS PERIOD
HANDLED WELL. ONLY CHANGES WILL BE TO INCREASE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND ALSO MENTION HEAVY RAIN MONDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE RECENT RAINS HAVE CAUSED FLOODING
IN SOUTHWEST IOWA.
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LOOKS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR 9-12 HOURS... JET
DIVERGENCE AND SHEARED VORTICITY IN NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIFT...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. NAM
AND GFS SHOW QUITE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION FROM 850-700. THIS IS
A CONCERN GIVEN THE CURRENT FLOODING IN THE NISHNABOTNA RIVER
BASIN IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. WPC DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAIN GRAPHIC SUPPORTS
THIS AS WELL.
INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
APPEAR TO BE LINING UP...PER SPC DAY 2 DISCUSSION. INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PARAMETERS MORE THAN SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK WITH UNSEASONABLY FAST UPPER FLOW. BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA SEEM
LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
BY LATE TUESDAY THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW BRINGS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AND
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC CDFNT IS
THROUGH THE KOFK TERMINAL AND WILL BE THRU KOMA/KLNK BETWEEN
19-20Z. THIS WILL SWITCH THE WINDS TO N/NW THRU THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT IS TO MINIMAL TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF...AND IF IT OCCURRED WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KLNK AFTER 06Z.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MON LEADING TO CHCS FOR
TSRA BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
538 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER WARM SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE
UNSETTLED DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
530 PM UPDATE...
AMPED SKY GRIDS UP TO ACCOUNT FOR THICKER-THAN-EXPECTED WING OF
CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TWIN TIERS AT THIS TIME.
INITIAL NORTHEASTERN PORTION SHOWS UP IN RUC13 RH FIELDS AROUND
500MB. THEN REMAINDER OF THICKER CLOUD SHIELD NOW SPREADING FROM
WESTERN TO CENTRAL PA...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NEPA AND PERHAPS SOME
OF THE NY/PA BORDER ZONES LATER THIS EVENING AS PER 700MB RH FIELD
OF THE RUC13. VIRGA IS ALSO SHOWING UP ON OUR RADAR
CURRENTLY...YET LOW LEVELS ARE MUCH TOO DRY FOR IT TO REACH THE
GROUND...AT LEAST INITIALLY. WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
INBOUND...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES INCLUDING
BRADFORD PA...THE CITY NOT THE COUNTY. I DO NOT SEE THAT GETTING
MUCH PAST THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INCLUDING THE WIND FARMS OF
BRADFORD PA...THE COUNTY NOT THE CITY...AND PERHAPS NEAR RICKETTS
GLEN...AS IT ENCOUNTERS MINOR DOWNSLOPING ANYWHERE BEYOND THAT AS
WELL AS CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MENTION OF SPRINKLES HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AROUND THOSE AREAS...OTHERWISE LOOKING TOTALLY DRY /AND
EVEN FOR THOSE LOCATIONS GETTING A SPRINKLE...OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE/.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK FROM OHIO ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING. SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA... ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PA... BUT THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE TOO
DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND
EASTERN CANADA. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY... SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RAPID INCREASE
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MID 60S DEW POINTS BY AFTERNOON. THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE MONDAY WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN THE INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY
UPSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN... HOWEVER AT THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING
AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE WHICH WOULD ALLOW CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. 0-3 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-35 KTS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ORGANIZED LINES OF CONVECTION WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. BASED ON
THIS WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL IN THE
HWO. PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND
2.0 INCHES SO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
AND WE ARE GOING WITH POPS AROUND 70 PERCENT FROM AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
AFTER A LULL MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT ONCE AGAIN THAT CAPE VALUES WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ONCE AGAIN
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST AS LARGE ON TUESDAY AS MONDAY AND ONCE AGAIN
THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THESE
STORMS INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
THE MAIN SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWERING DEW POINTS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ONLY
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A FEW SHOWERS
MAY YET DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT POPS WILL BE LOWER THAN
MONDAY OR TUESDAY AND THE SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE
LOWER DUE TO LOWER DEW POINTS AND LESS INSTABILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...WRN CONUS/WRN CANADIAN
RIDGING AND A L/WV TROUGH FROM HUDSON`S BAY SWD OVER THE ERN CONUS
WILL SET THE PATN THIS PD. HOW AMPLIFIED THIS CONFIGURATION IS...THOUGH
WILL VARY OVER TIME. IN GENERAL...THIS TRANSLATES TO AN
ABSENCE OF ANY TRULY HOT WX (HIGHS FROM THE 70S-MID 80S)...WITH
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ROLLING THROUGH ABT EVERY 2-3 DAYS.
AS FOR THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX...LINGERING SHWRS/TSTMS ARE PSBL AT
THE START OF THE PD WED NGT-THU...AS A NRN STREAM S/WV AND SFC
COLD FRNT SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST. FRI THROUGH MOST OF SAT
LOOK RAIN-FREE AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE PT...WITH THE ERN TROUGH
TEMPORARILY RELAXING. FOR THE LATTER PTN OF NEXT WEEKEND...SHWRS
AND TSTMS MAY WELL RETURN...AS A RELOADING OF THE L/WV TROUGH AXIS
UPSTREAM HERALDS THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT S/WV...ALG WITH A SFC
WARM FRNT.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUN UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z MON. SOME SHWRS ARE
ANTICIPATED MON MRNG...AFTER 12-14Z...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED IN NATURE.
W TO SW SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THIS AFTN...WILL BECOME SRLY
OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SW AFTER
14-15Z MON (GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY).
OUTLOOK...
TUE THROUGH THU...ALTHOUGH VFR IS LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF THE
TIME...THERE WILL BE SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE VICINITY...SPCLY DURG
THE AFTN AND EVE HRS. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR.
FRI...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/MSE
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1240 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
OVER MO WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NW AR...SO THERE IS SOME CHANCE
FOR AN AFTERNOON STORM AT THE KXNA AND KFYV TAFS. HAVE INSERTED A
VCTS MENTION TO COVER. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ACROSS NE OK...BUT WILL BACK OFF BY SUNSET THIS EVENING.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST
AR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DISTURBANCE...POSSIBLY EVEN AN
MCV...TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MO ATTM. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS IS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO AND FAR
NORTHEAST OK ATTM...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WAVE (CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED MOST LIKELY) WRAPPING AROUND THE MID LVL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE SOUTHWEST FLANK IS WEAKENING AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEAST...WITH THE NORTHEAST FLANK REMAINS MORE INTENSE.
HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS OVER IN NORTHWEST AR WHERE THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY IS HEADED. WILL INCREASE POPS MORE IF NEEDED.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. BVO
LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP AND WILL CARRY
-RA/VCTS...WHILE KEEPING THE REST OF THE TAF SITES DRY DUE TO
LIMITED COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUD
DECKS AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
PERSISTING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS THE TAIL END OF A
SHORTWAVE BRUSHES ACROSS THIS AREA. OTHERWISE THE HEAT WILL BE
BUILDING TODAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
SOME MODELS BRING TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY MONDAY BUT WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT HOT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT WILL STALL WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND AND
BEYOND BRINGING TEMPERATURES AS HOT OR HOTTER THAN WHAT WE WILL
SEE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 75 97 77 95 / 10 0 10 20
FSM 73 96 74 94 / 0 10 10 10
MLC 74 94 75 94 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 72 97 74 92 / 10 0 10 20
FYV 69 91 70 89 / 0 10 10 30
BYV 69 92 71 88 / 10 10 10 30
MKO 72 95 74 94 / 0 0 0 20
MIO 72 95 74 90 / 10 10 10 30
F10 73 95 74 94 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 72 93 73 92 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS AMARILLO TX
553 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AROUND 02Z TO 03Z MONDAY.
THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE GUYMON TAF SITE BUT
ONLY VCTS NEEDED AT THIS POINT. THE CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE DALHART
TAF SITE UNTIL AROUND 02Z TO 03Z MONDAY AND THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE A
TEMPO GROUP. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
UPDATE...
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. UPDATED PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
EXPAND THE LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST AND CALL FOR AREAL QUALIFIERS RATHER THAN CATEGORICAL PRECIP.
ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER MORE THIS EVENING.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASION
REGION MAINTAINING A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AROUND
00Z TO 03Z MONDAY. EXPECT GENERALLY ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 03Z
MONDAY. FEEL THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECIDED TO INSERT LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. THE LATEST
TTU-WRF AND...TO SOME EXTENT...THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE NAM...RUC AND
ECMWF SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS WEEK
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...06Z TO
12Z TUESDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TUESDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE GREAT BASION REGION BACK DOWN INTO THE
PANHANDLES AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. WEAKNESS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AFFECTING
THE FORECAST AREA IN COMBINATION WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION...DEVELOPING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...TO MOVE LITTLE AND CAUSING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS BY TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
DRY CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
11/01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
541 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AROUND 02Z TO 03Z MONDAY.
THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE GUYMON TAF SITE BUT
ONLY VCTS NEEDED AT THIS POINT. THE CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE DALHART
TAF SITE UNTIL AROUND 02Z TO 03Z MONDAY AND THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE A
PROB30 GROUP. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
UPDATE...
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. UPDATED PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
EXPAND THE LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST AND CALL FOR AREAL QUALIFIERS RATHER THAN CATEGORICAL PRECIP.
ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER MORE THIS EVENING.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASION
REGION MAINTAINING A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AROUND
00Z TO 03Z MONDAY. EXPECT GENERALLY ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 03Z
MONDAY. FEEL THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECIDED TO INSERT LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. THE LATEST
TTU-WRF AND...TO SOME EXTENT...THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE NAM...RUC AND
ECMWF SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS WEEK
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...06Z TO
12Z TUESDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TUESDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE GREAT BASION REGION BACK DOWN INTO THE
PANHANDLES AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. WEAKNESS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AFFECTING
THE FORECAST AREA IN COMBINATION WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION...DEVELOPING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...TO MOVE LITTLE AND CAUSING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS BY TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
DRY CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
11/01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
405 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. UPDATED PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
EXPAND THE LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST AND CALL FOR AREAL QUALIFIERS RATHER THAN CATEGORICAL PRECIP.
ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER MORE THIS EVENING.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASION
REGION MAINTAINING A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AROUND
00Z TO 03Z MONDAY. EXPECT GENERALLY ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 03Z
MONDAY. FEEL THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECIDED TO INSERT LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. THE LATEST
TTU-WRF AND...TO SOME EXTENT...THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE NAM...RUC AND
ECMWF SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS WEEK
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...06Z TO
12Z TUESDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TUESDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE GREAT BASION REGION BACK DOWN INTO THE
PANHANDLES AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. WEAKNESS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AFFECTING
THE FORECAST AREA IN COMBINATION WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION...DEVELOPING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...TO MOVE LITTLE AND CAUSING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS BY TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
DRY CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
19/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
238 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASION
REGION MAINTAINING A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AROUND
00Z TO 03Z MONDAY. EXPECT GENERALLY ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 03Z
MONDAY. FEEL THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECIDED TO INSERT LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. THE LATEST
TTU-WRF AND...TO SOME EXTENT...THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE NAM...RUC AND
ECMWF SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS WEEK
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...06Z TO
12Z TUESDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TUESDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE GREAT BASION REGION BACK DOWN INTO THE
PANHANDLES AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. WEAKNESS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AFFECTING
THE FORECAST AREA IN COMBINATION WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION...DEVELOPING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...TO MOVE LITTLE AND CAUSING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS BY TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
DRY CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 67 95 67 91 69 / 20 5 5 20 40
BEAVER OK 72 103 72 92 68 / 5 5 5 20 30
BOISE CITY OK 66 100 70 89 65 / 10 5 5 30 30
BORGER TX 68 101 69 94 71 / 20 5 5 20 40
BOYS RANCH TX 67 100 68 95 71 / 20 5 5 20 40
CANYON TX 66 95 65 92 68 / 20 5 5 10 40
CLARENDON TX 69 96 69 94 70 / 20 5 5 10 30
DALHART TX 67 99 67 91 66 / 20 5 5 30 40
GUYMON OK 70 102 70 91 68 / 5 5 5 30 40
HEREFORD TX 64 94 63 92 67 / 20 5 5 10 30
LIPSCOMB TX 71 100 72 92 67 / 20 5 5 20 30
PAMPA TX 69 97 70 92 69 / 20 5 5 20 40
SHAMROCK TX 70 97 70 94 68 / 20 5 5 10 30
WELLINGTON TX 72 99 71 97 70 / 20 5 5 5 30
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
13/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1228 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.AVIATION...
HAVE AFTERNOON VCSH/VCTS IN THE 18Z TAFS AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS
TO INITIATE MORE SHRA/TSRA. EXPECT WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION THIS
EVENING...THEN POSSIBLE MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WHERE GROUNDS
ARE WET. FOR TOMORROW...CARRIED VCSH NEAR THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE
AND THEN A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
TO SEE MORE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND HAVE
STARTED TO MOVE INLAND. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PWATS AROUND 1.7" THIS AFTERNOON WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER INLAND AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON THANKS TO DAY TIME HEATING. HIGH RES HRRR AND TEXAS TECH
WRF AGAIN SHOWING GREATEST CHANCES TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. GRANTED
THEY HAVE NOT INITIALIZED GREAT. COVERAGE MIGHT AGAIN BE MORE
THAN 40 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS BUT GIVEN MESOSCALE NATURE OF STORMS
HARD TO PIN POINT EXACT LOCATION. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TAKEN THE
ABOVE INTO ACCOUNT. NO UPDATE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. 23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD AND MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO IT. EXPECT
GENERAL PATTERN OF ISO/SCT PRECIP TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE NIGHT &
EARLY MORNING THEN TRANSITION INLAND DURING THE DAY COMPLIMENTS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEABREEZE. OVERALL COVERAGE DEPENDS ON
SLIGHT VARIATIONS OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY & LOCATION EACH DAY.
SFC HIGH PRES SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST. FURTHER ALOFT...LOOKS LIKE WE`LL REMAIN
IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS BETWEEN RIDGES. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLNS DO SUGGEST UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FURTHER OVERHEAD TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN CHANCES DOWN AND TEMPS UP. JUST
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON - BUT PERSISTENCE FCST WILL DO FOR
NOW. 47
MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES OFF TO THE EAST THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE IN-
CREASING SLIGHTLY THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE LIGHT/MODERATE WINDS ARE
FCST TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE WX PATTERN REMAINS GENER-
ALLY QUIET. NO ADVISORIES/CAUTION FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED EXPECTED THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 73 93 74 93 / 20 20 30 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 92 74 92 75 92 / 30 20 30 10 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 79 89 80 90 / 30 20 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
550 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESPECIALLY IN WISCONSIN. THESE ARE ON THE
NOSE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND BASICALLY THE FINE LINE BACK
EDGE IS THE 850MB FRONT DEPICTED IN RAP ANALYSIS. THE STRONGEST
CORE HAS BEEN OVER TREMPEALEAU COUNTY...AND DOES HAVE SOME MID-
LEVEL ROTATION...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE CORE APPEARS TO BE RAIN. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY OF THIS ELEVATED DRIVEN CONVECTION TO TURN
SEVERE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...STILL MONITORING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH CENTRAL IOWA TO SOUTH CENTRAL
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. SEEING A TOWERING CUMULUS LINE ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY...BUT OVERALL DEEP- MOISTURE AND EVEN SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS TROUGH IS WEAK. LOOKING AT THE SURFACE FLOW...IT GOES
SOUTHWEST AT RST TO NEARLY WEST AT I-35 TO NORTHWEST AT NEW
ULM...A LONG DISTANCE. RAP ANALYSIS DOES SHOW 2500-3500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE WITH LITTLE CIN IN THIS CORRIDOR...THOUGH. THUS...A WAIT
AND SEE IF ANYTHING CAN POP. SHOULD A STORM FIRE...IT WILL
PROBABLY TURN SEVERE QUICKLY.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE LONG PERIOD OF HAVING
THE STRATUS AROUND TODAY AND NOT A LOT OF CONVERGENCE ON THE
FRONT HAVE BEEN DETRIMENTAL TO SEVERE POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE GENERAL WEAK
TROUGHING PRESIDED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS
EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL MN. ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORTWAVE PER THE RAP AT
800MB WERE 30 KT NORTHWEST WINDS AND 14-15C TEMPERATURES. COMPARE
THIS TO 25-30 KT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 18-20C TEMPERATURES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THAT WARM NOSE COMBINED WITH MORNING STRATUS AND
DEBRIS CLOUDS HAS KEPT CONDITIONS CAPPED THUS FAR. EDGE OF CAP
REFLECTED NICELY TOO BY SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING ON OVER WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART
HAVE BEEN STUCK IN THE 70S WITH A FEW 80S WHERE CLEARING BRIEFLY
OCCURRED IN SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ON
THE RISE...THOUGH...NOW IN THE LOW 70S. BACK IN WESTERN IA...
EVAPOTRANSPORATION PUSHING DEWPOINTS THERE IN THE UPPER 70S.
THINKING THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING TOWARDS THE AREA IS NOT
HELPING MATTERS TO CLEAR THE STRATUS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS HAVE RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-
2010 J/KG WHILE MLCIN SITS 50-100 J/KG WHERE IT CLEARED TO
201-300 J/KG WHERE ITS STILL CLOUDY. MEANWHILE...IN SOUTHWEST
MN... DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN OFF INTO MID LOW 50S BEHIND A
TROUGH/DRYLINE THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO NORTHWEST
WI.
ANTICIPATING CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG THE
TROUGH/DRYLINE NEAR/WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES TO GET RID OF THE CIN. CONVECTION SHOULD TAKE ON A
SCATTERED NATURE GIVEN THE CAP IN PLACE. WHERE CONVECTION DOES
FIRE...0-3KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR ARE ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KT... WHICH
SHOULD FAVOR MORE MULTI-CELLULAR ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
CAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT AN INITIAL SUPERCELL...BUT THINKING MORE
INTENSE MULTI-CELLS ARE MORE LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS OF BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 01-02Z.
HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE CONVECTION DOESNT EVEN MAKE
IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF THE
MASSIVE AMOUNT OF CIN RIGHT NOW IN PLACE. MANY HRRR RUNS TODAY HAVE
SHOWN THIS.
MUCH OF TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN LOOKS DRY AS
UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 500MB BRINGS IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN FROM NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS
REFLECTED WELL IN GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS VALUES
OF 1 INCH OR LESS OVER WESTERN MN COMPARED TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.
HEADING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...A LONG WAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN. INCREASING
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...COMBINED WITH 1000-
1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH LITTLE CAPPING AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS
MINNESOTA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS DEPICTED TOO BY DETERMINISTIC
AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. THIS CONVECTION COULD SPREAD INTO THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN 0-3KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KT AND MORE IMPORTANTLY 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF
40-55 KT...ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE. COULD
END UP SEEING A MIX OF SUPERCELL AND LINE SEGMENTS...THOUGH THE
SHEAR BEING UNIDIRECTIONAL MAY FAVOR MORE LINE SEGMENTS AND THUS
DAMAGING WINDS. NEED TO WATCH THE LARGE HAIL CONCERN INITIALLY TOO
GIVEN LOWER FREEZING LEVELS...DROPPING FROM NEAR 14000 FT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 12010 FT LATE MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE SEVERE POTENTIAL MONDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR MID-WEEK.
MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE LONG WAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500MB AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A POINT IN THE EVENING WHERE WE GET
INTO A LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. COMBINE THIS
DYNAMICAL FORCING WITH AN 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT PLUME AND
LINGERING INSTABILITY MEANS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. UNTIL INSTABILITY
WANES...EXPECT A SEVERE THREAT TO EXIST...JUST AS THE 06.12Z HIRES
ARW/NMM SUGGEST. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION COULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...OR AT LEAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF...SO
PRECIPITATION DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
PLUS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TANK AGAIN AFTER BRIEFLY COMING UP
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ON TUESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ON SETTING UP AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. COOL AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH THIS TROUGH IN WISCONSIN...DAYTIME HEATING...AS WELL AS
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPARK SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE IN WISCONSIN
WITH THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH.
DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A RESULT OF A DRIER WESTERN CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE AREA MOVING THROUGH...AND BEING AROUND THE INFLECTION POINT
BEHIND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH 850MB TEMP
ANOMALIES ABOUT 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL...OR BETWEEN 9-
13C. LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.75 INCHES WILL HELP TOO IN
RADIATIVE COOLING AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH MIXING OF DEWPOINTS IN THE
DAY. COULD SEE SOME VALLEY FOG TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. WARM ADVECTION BEGINS IN
EARNEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH HEADS OFF TO THE EAST. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE WITH
THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...PERHAPS CREEPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA EITHER LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. STORM CHANCES THEN LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM
MANITOBA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PERHAPS BY SUNDAY ALL
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL GET SHOVED TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...HAVE STILL
MAINTAINED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURE WISE...850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY RANGE 16-18C THROUGH SATURDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
80S. THESE SHOULD COOL BACK SOME ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROUGH DROPPING
IN. HUMIDITY WILL BE UP TOO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THAT RETURN
FLOW...EVAPOTRANSPORATION AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION ADDING MOISTURE
TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
SHRA/TS HAVE FIRED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FRONT/DRY LINE TRACKING EAST
ACROSS EASTERN MN/IA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF KRST
BY 00Z...BUT COULD LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO NEAR KLSE PAST TAF
ISSUANCE. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY MID EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SFC FRONT COMBO WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...TRIGGERING
MORE SHRA/TS. THREAT TIME APPEARS TO BE IN THE 20-03Z TIME FRAME AT
THE MOMENT. AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR A STRONG-SEVERE STORM
THREAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
RIVER STAGES ARE FALLING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND IT
APPEARS THAT ALL OF THEM WILL BE BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME RAIN FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT NONE OF
IT LOOKS WIDESPREAD HEAVY ENOUGH TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
THE MISSISSIPPI...OR EVEN TRIBUTARIES FOR THAT MATTER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...AJ
SHORT TERM..AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION....RIECK
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
331 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESPECIALLY IN WISCONSIN. THESE ARE ON THE
NOSE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND BASICALLY THE FINE LINE BACK
EDGE IS THE 850MB FRONT DEPICTED IN RAP ANALYSIS. THE STRONGEST
CORE HAS BEEN OVER TREMPEALEAU COUNTY...AND DOES HAVE SOME MID-
LEVEL ROTATION...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE CORE APPEARS TO BE RAIN. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY OF THIS ELEVATED DRIVEN CONVECTION TO TURN
SEVERE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...STILL MONITORING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH CENTRAL IOWA TO SOUTH CENTRAL
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. SEEING A TOWERING CUMULUS LINE ON VISIBILE
IMAGERY...BUT OVERALL DEEP- MOISTURE AND EVEN SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS TROUGH IS WEAK. LOOKING AT THE SURFACE FLOW...IT GOES
SOUTHWEST AT RST TO NEARLY WEST AT I-35 TO NORTHWEST AT NEW
ULM...A LONG DISTANCE. RAP ANALYSIS DOES SHOW 2500-3500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE WITH LITTLE CIN IN THIS CORRIDOR...THOUGH. THUS...A WAIT
AND SEE IF ANYTHING CAN POP. SHOULD A STORM FIRE...IT WILL
PROBABLY TURN SEVERE QUICKLY.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE LONG PERIOD OF HAVING
THE STRATUS AROUND TODAY AND NOT A LOT OF CONVERGENCE ON THE
FRONT HAVE BEEN DETRIMENTAL TO SEVERE POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE GENERAL WEAK
TROUGHING PRESIDED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS
EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL MN. ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORTWAVE PER THE RAP AT
800MB WERE 30 KT NORTHWEST WINDS AND 14-15C TEMPERATURES. COMPARE
THIS TO 25-30 KT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 18-20C TEMPERATURES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THAT WARM NOSE COMBINED WITH MORNING STRATUS AND
DEBRIS CLOUDS HAS KEPT CONDITIONS CAPPED THUS FAR. EDGE OF CAP
REFLECTED NICELY TOO BY SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING ON OVER WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART
HAVE BEEN STUCK IN THE 70S WITH A FEW 80S WHERE CLEARING BRIEFLY
OCCURRED IN SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ON
THE RISE...THOUGH...NOW IN THE LOW 70S. BACK IN WESTERN IA...
EVAPOTRANSPORATION PUSHING DEWPOINTS THERE IN THE UPPER 70S.
THINKING THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING TOWARDS THE AREA IS NOT
HELPING MATTERS TO CLEAR THE STRATUS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS HAVE RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-
2010 J/KG WHILE MLCIN SITS 50-100 J/KG WHERE IT CLEARED TO
201-300 J/KG WHERE ITS STILL CLOUDY. MEANWHILE...IN SOUTHWEST
MN... DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN OFF INTO MID LOW 50S BEHIND A
TROUGH/DRYLINE THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO NORTHWEST
WI.
ANTICIPATING CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG THE
TROUGH/DRYLINE NEAR/WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES TO GET RID OF THE CIN. CONVECTION SHOULD TAKE ON A
SCATTERED NATURE GIVEN THE CAP IN PLACE. WHERE CONVECTION DOES
FIRE...0-3KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR ARE ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KT... WHICH
SHOULD FAVOR MORE MULTI-CELLULAR ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
CAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT AN INITIAL SUPERCELL...BUT THINKING MORE
INTENSE MULTI-CELLS ARE MORE LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS OF BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 01-02Z.
HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE CONVECTION DOESNT EVEN MAKE
IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF THE
MASSIVE AMOUNT OF CIN RIGHT NOW IN PLACE. MANY HRRR RUNS TODAY HAVE
SHOWN THIS.
MUCH OF TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN LOOKS DRY AS
UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 500MB BRINGS IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN FROM NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS
REFLECTED WELL IN GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS VALUES
OF 1 INCH OR LESS OVER WESTERN MN COMPARED TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.
HEADING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...A LONG WAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN. INCREASING
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...COMBINED WITH 1000-
1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH LITTLE CAPPING AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS
MINNESOTA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS DEPICTED TOO BY DETERMINISTIC
AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. THIS CONVECTION COULD SPREAD INTO THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN 0-3KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KT AND MORE IMPORTANTLY 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF
40-55 KT...ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE. COULD
END UP SEEING A MIX OF SUPERCELL AND LINE SEGMENTS...THOUGH THE
SHEAR BEING UNIDIRECTIONAL MAY FAVOR MORE LINE SEGMENTS AND THUS
DAMAGING WINDS. NEED TO WATCH THE LARGE HAIL CONCERN INITIALLY TOO
GIVEN LOWER FREEZING LEVELS...DROPPING FROM NEAR 14000 FT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 12010 FT LATE MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE SEVERE POTENTIAL MONDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR MID-WEEK.
MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE LONG WAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500MB AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A POINT IN THE EVENING WHERE WE GET
INTO A LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. COMBINE THIS
DYNAMICAL FORCING WITH AN 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT PLUME AND
LINGERING INSTABILITY MEANS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. UNTIL INSTABILITY
WANES...EXPECT A SEVERE THREAT TO EXIST...JUST AS THE 06.12Z HIRES
ARW/NMM SUGGEST. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION COULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...OR AT LEAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF...SO
PRECIPITATION DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
PLUS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TANK AGAIN AFTER BRIEFLY COMING UP
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ON TUESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ON SETTING UP AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. COOL AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH THIS TROUGH IN WISCONSIN...DAYTIME HEATING...AS WELL AS
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPARK SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE IN WISCONSIN
WITH THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH.
DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A RESULT OF A DRIER WESTERN CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE AREA MOVING THROUGH...AND BEING AROUND THE INFLECTION POINT
BEHIND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH 850MB TEMP
ANOMALIES ABOUT 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL...OR BETWEEN 9-
13C. LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.75 INCHES WILL HELP TOO IN
RADIATIVE COOLING AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH MIXING OF DEWPOINTS IN THE
DAY. COULD SEE SOME VALLEY FOG TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. WARM ADVECTION BEGINS IN
EARNEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH HEADS OFF TO THE EAST. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE WITH
THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...PERHAPS CREEPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA EITHER LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. STORM CHANCES THEN LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM
MANITOBA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PERHAPS BY SUNDAY ALL
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL GET SHOVED TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...HAVE STILL
MAINTAINED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURE WISE...850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY RANGE 16-18C THROUGH SATURDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
80S. THESE SHOULD COOL BACK SOME ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROUGH DROPPING
IN. HUMIDITY WILL BE UP TOO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THAT RETURN
FLOW...EVAPOTRANSPORATION AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION ADDING MOISTURE
TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK FINALLY BREAKING/SCATTERING AS OF MID DAY.
WITH DIURNAL WARMING AND SOUTHWEST 10-20KT WINDS FOR MIXING...EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH RISING CLOUD HGTS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KDLH TO KFSD WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. FRONT WILL TRIGGER A SCT-BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA AS IT MOVES
ACROSS...MAINLY IN THE 20-22Z PERIOD AT KRST AND 22-24Z AT KLSE.
MAIN CONVECTION STILL LOOKS TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF KRST SO LEFT
THAT AS PERIOD OF VCTS. CONTINUED WITH 2SM TSRA AT KLSE...BUT IF
TSRA END UP MORE SCATTERED IN THE LINE...VCTS MAY BE MORE
APPROPRIATE FOR THIS PERIOD AT KLSE. ONCE FRONT GOES THRU...DEW
POINTS DROP ABOUT 10F AS DRIER AIR SPREADS IN. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 5-10KTS THEN KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED TONIGHT...AND ANY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR TO A MINIMUM. GOOD VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU MON MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IS SLATED TO SPREAD INTO THE TAF SITES LATER MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
RIVER STAGES ARE FALLING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND IT
APPEARS THAT ALL OF THEM WILL BE BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME RAIN FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT NONE OF
IT LOOKS WIDESPREAD HEAVY ENOUGH TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
THE MISSISSIPPI...OR EVEN TRIBUTARITES FOR THAT MATTER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...AJ
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....DAS
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
201 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE GENERAL WEAK
TROUGHING PRESIDED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS
EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL MN. ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORTWAVE PER THE RAP AT
800MB WERE 30 KT NORTHWEST WINDS AND 14-15C TEMPERATURES. COMPARE
THIS TO 25-30 KT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 18-20C TEMPERATURES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THAT WARM NOSE COMBINED WITH MORNING STRATUS AND
DEBRIS CLOUDS HAS KEPT CONDITIONS CAPPED THUS FAR. EDGE OF CAP
REFLECTED NICELY TOO BY SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING ON OVER WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART
HAVE BEEN STUCK IN THE 70S WITH A FEW 80S WHERE CLEARING BRIEFLY
OCCURRED IN SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ON
THE RISE...THOUGH...NOW IN THE LOW 70S. BACK IN WESTERN IA...
EVAPOTRANSPORATION PUSHING DEWPOINTS THERE IN THE UPPER 70S.
THINKING THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING TOWARDS THE AREA IS NOT
HELPING MATTERS TO CLEAR THE STRATUS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS HAVE RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-
2010 J/KG WHILE MLCIN SITS 50-100 J/KG WHERE IT CLEARED TO
201-300 J/KG WHERE ITS STILL CLOUDY. MEANWHILE...IN SOUTHWEST
MN... DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN OFF INTO MID LOW 50S BEHIND A
TROUGH/DRYLINE THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO NORTHWEST
WI.
ANTICIPATING CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG THE
TROUGH/DRYLINE NEAR/WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES TO GET RID OF THE CIN. CONVECTION SHOULD TAKE ON A
SCATTERED NATURE GIVEN THE CAP IN PLACE. WHERE CONVECTION DOES
FIRE...0-3KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR ARE ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KT... WHICH
SHOULD FAVOR MORE MULTI-CELLULAR ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
CAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT AN INITIAL SUPERCELL...BUT THINKING MORE
INTENSE MULTI-CELLS ARE MORE LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS OF BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 01-02Z.
HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE CONVECTION DOESNT EVEN MAKE
IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF THE
MASSIVE AMOUNT OF CIN RIGHT NOW IN PLACE. MANY HRRR RUNS TODAY HAVE
SHOWN THIS.
MUCH OF TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN LOOKS DRY AS
UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 500MB BRINGS IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN FROM NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS
REFLECTED WELL IN GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS VALUES
OF 1 INCH OR LESS OVER WESTERN MN COMPARED TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.
HEADING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...A LONG WAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN. INCREASING
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...COMBINED WITH 1000-
1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH LITTLE CAPPING AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS
MINNESOTA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS DEPICTED TOO BY DETERMINISTIC
AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. THIS CONVECTION COULD SPREAD INTO THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN 0-3KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KT AND MORE IMPORTANTLY 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF
40-55 KT...ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE. COULD
END UP SEEING A MIX OF SUPERCELL AND LINE SEGMENTS...THOUGH THE
SHEAR BEING UNIDIRECTIONAL MAY FAVOR MORE LINE SEGMENTS AND THUS
DAMAGING WINDS. NEED TO WATCH THE LARGE HAIL CONCERN INITIALLY TOO
GIVEN LOWER FREEZING LEVELS...DROPPING FROM NEAR 14000 FT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 12010 FT LATE MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE SEVERE POTENTIAL MONDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR MID-WEEK.
MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE LONG WAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500MB AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A POINT IN THE EVENING WHERE WE GET
INTO A LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. COMBINE THIS
DYNAMICAL FORCING WITH AN 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT PLUME AND
LINGERING INSTABILITY MEANS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. UNTIL INSTABILITY
WANES...EXPECT A SEVERE THREAT TO EXIST...JUST AS THE 06.12Z HIRES
ARW/NMM SUGGEST. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION COULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...OR AT LEAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF...SO
PRECIPITATION DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
PLUS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TANK AGAIN AFTER BRIEFLY COMING UP
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ON TUESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ON SETTING UP AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. COOL AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH THIS TROUGH IN WISCONSIN...DAYTIME HEATING...AS WELL AS
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPARK SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE IN WISCONSIN
WITH THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH.
DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A RESULT OF A DRIER WESTERN CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE AREA MOVING THROUGH...AND BEING AROUND THE INFLECTION POINT
BEHIND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH 850MB TEMP
ANOMALIES ABOUT 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL...OR BETWEEN 9-
13C. LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.75 INCHES WILL HELP TOO IN
RADIATIVE COOLING AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH MIXING OF DEWPOINTS IN THE
DAY. COULD SEE SOME VALLEY FOG TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. WARM ADVECTION BEGINS IN
EARNEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH HEADS OFF TO THE EAST. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE WITH
THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...PERHAPS CREEPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA EITHER LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. STORM CHANCES THEN LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM
MANITOBA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PERHAPS BY SUNDAY ALL
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL GET SHOVED TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...HAVE STILL
MAINTAINED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURE WISE...850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY RANGE 16-18C THROUGH SATURDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
80S. THESE SHOULD COOL BACK SOME ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROUGH DROPPING
IN. HUMIDITY WILL BE UP TOO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THAT RETURN
FLOW...EVAPOTRANSPORATION AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION ADDING MOISTURE
TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014
MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK FINALLY BREAKING/SCATTERING AS OF MID DAY.
WITH DIURNAL WARMING AND SOUTHWEST 10-20KT WINDS FOR MIXING...EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH RISING CLOUD HGTS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KDLH TO KFSD WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. FRONT WILL TRIGGER A SCT-BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA AS IT MOVES
ACROSS...MAINLY IN THE 20-22Z PERIOD AT KRST AND 22-24Z AT KLSE.
MAIN CONVECTION STILL LOOKS TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF KRST SO LEFT
THAT AS PERIOD OF VCTS. CONTINUED WITH 2SM TSRA AT KLSE...BUT IF
TSRA END UP MORE SCATTERED IN THE LINE...VCTS MAY BE MORE
APPROPRIATE FOR THIS PERIOD AT KLSE. ONCE FRONT GOES THRU...DEW
POINTS DROP ABOUT 10F AS DRIER AIR SPREADS IN. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 5-10KTS THEN KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED TONIGHT...AND ANY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR TO A MINIMUM. GOOD VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU MON MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IS SLATED TO SPREAD INTO THE TAF SITES LATER MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....DAS