Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/05/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER
COCHISE..GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FW WIND GUSTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND
IS FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THEREAFTER...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...A WIDE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER COCHISE...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES.
FOR TOMORROW...MUCH OF OUR PRECIP COVERAGE AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON THE REMNANT DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS
EVENING. AS WE WITNESSED TODAY...THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER PREVENTED
THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THAT THE MODELS HINTED AT. THE WRF HI
RES MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS ACTIVITY TOMORROW...WHICH MAKES SENSE IF
WE MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY AND LIMIT HEATING. ALTHOUGH I
ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVER PIMA...PINAL AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO THE LAST FEW IR SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOWING SOME CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN PIMA COUNTY...WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. THE WRF HINTS AT THE
BEST CONVECTION POTENTIAL OVER PIMA COUNTY TOMORROW...WHICH WOULD
MAKE SENSE GIVEN OUR EXPECTED CLEARING SKIES TO ALLOW PLENTY OF
HEATING TOMORROW.
JJB
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 08/00Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA WILL RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH +TSRA...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL WIND
GUSTS TO ABOUT 50 KTS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL BE AROUND 8-15K
FT AGL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR INTO
THIS EVENING THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAPPEN
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...MOISTURE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING GENERALLY SE OF A HANNAGAN MEADOW-SAFFORD-VAIL-TUBAC LINE
AT THIS TIME. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ACROSS SE PINAL COUNTY.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS AT THIS TIME WERE ADJACENT MOUNTAINS. THE
MID- LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL FAVOR STORM MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST INTO THIS EVENING. THE RUC HRRR HAS HANDLED THE EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY QUITE WELL DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS.
AT ANY RATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR AREA-WIDE THIS
EVENING. SLIGHTLY LESSER POPS ARE DEPICTED ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY
RELATIVE TO ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY NEAR
MOUNTAINS LATE SAT NIGHT SUN MORNING.
04/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING DEEPER MOISTURE
TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN SECTIONS SUN. THUS...HAVE CONFIGURED
CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR LOCALES EAST AND
SOUTH OF TUCSON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON WWD/NWWD.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
MON-TUE. MEANWHILE...GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING AN
INVERTED TROUGH/WEAK UPPER LOW TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
MAINTAINED PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST SCENARIOS OF INCREASING POPS
MON-TUE IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS SE AZ WED AFTERNOON/
EVENING.
A SOMEWHAT DRIER REGIME MAY ENCROACH UPON THE AREA THUR-FRI...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS. GFS/ECMWF SHUNTED THE AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE EWD INTO WRN NEW MEXICO. THE ECMWF WAS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH
THIS DRIER SCENARIO VERSUS THE GFS. SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...AM NOT YET INCLINED TO
BELIEVE THESE SOLUTIONS FULLY...AT LEAST AT THIS TIME. THUS...HAVE
OPTED FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THUR-FRI...WITH LESSER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS FROM TUCSON WWD/NWWD. ASIDE FROM SOME WARMING SUN-MON...
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL INTO
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
815 PM MST FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
HUMIDITIES...AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WAVE SEEN IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WAS SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTH ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ALOFT. 00Z SOUNDING DATA CONTINUED
TO SAMPLE A MOSTLY CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED ATMOSPHERE WITH PALTRY
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES
(8-10 G/KG WELL MIXED MOISTURE). THIS COMBINATION OF MEAGER
MLCAPE...NOTABLE CINH...AND PROXIMITY WITHIN THE UPSTREAM SUBSIDENCE
AREA OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE HAS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE FORECAST AREA. OUTFLOW
HAS NOT BEEN ORGANIZED IN THE FACE OF LARGE SCALE SINKING
MOTION...AND IR CLOUD TOP AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST ACTIVITY QUICKLY
WANING ALREADY THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE MADE ANOTHER CUT INTO POP
VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...PORTRAYING A PRIMARILY DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME
OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES BASED ON SHORT
TERM TRENDS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/315 PM MST FRI JUL 4 2014/
THE PREFERENCE AGAIN IS CLEARLY TOWARDS THE HRRR WHICH HAS CAPTURED
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS WELL. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CIN ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS DUE TO THE
DELAYED INSOLATION. GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW PARALLEL TO THE MOGOLLON
RIM...CONVECTION ALONG THE RIM IS SHOWING LITTLE TENDENCY TO
PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHICH ESSENTIALLY LEAVES CENTRAL AZ IN A LESS
FAVORED AREA. NEVERTHELESS...CONDITIONS REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER DESERTS AS FAR WEST AS
SE CA...INCLUDING YUMA. MAIN THREATS REMAIN BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST.
ACTIVE PATTERN FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL PWATS EACH AFTERNOON AND MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. MUCH OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
DICTATED BY WHERE AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY /LINGERING
BOUNDARIES...HOW WORKED OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS...ETC.../ SO I
WILL KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHED APPROACH TO THE POPS AND KEEP THEM WELL
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK HOWEVER THE ONLY DAY TO
FEATURE ANY SORT OF NOTEWORTHY INVERTED TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IS
TUESDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES OR
IF THIS IS JUST CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BEING ADVECTED WITH THE MEAN
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A CLIMO-LIKE APPEARANCE
TO THE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGHLIGHTING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THAT OCCURRED THIS EVENING...I WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY...ONLY TOPPING OUT JUST ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
AS PWATS CHANGE LITTLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH THE IDEA OF HIGHS AROUND 102-105
EACH AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...EVENING CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN SOME RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 80S OR EVEN LOWER 90S. OF COURSE OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT BUT WILL STICK WITH THE IDEA OF VERY
WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
WITH VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL EAST OF TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
ONLY PERIODIC SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER (ABOVE 10K FT) WILL DRIFT
OVER AERODROMES. SFC WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF OUTFLOW PUSH DOWN INTO THE VALLEY. TIMING
OF THIS WIND SHIFT CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE...THOUGH WEAK SPEEDS
SHOULD LIMIT ANY IMPACTS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE REGION WITH NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SFC WINDS SHOULD
FAVOR A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MAY BECOME
PERIODICALLY VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT WITH OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
DRIFTING THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ELEVATED STORM CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT EVEN PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER DESERTS COULD SEE WETTING RAINS. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
QUITE HIGH WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES DURING THE PERIOD. GIVEN
THE INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM INDUCED OUTFLOWS...
WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AND SHOULD FOLLOW THE USUAL UPSLOPE
DRAINAGE PATTERNS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...MO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH/LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
920 AM MST THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXISTS...AND BLOWING DUST MAY HAPPEN WEST TO
NORTHWEST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS SE AZ WITH 03/12Z KTWC
TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.30 INCHES...NEARLY 0.40 INCH HIGHER
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW HAS ALSO INCREASED AND
BECOME MORE ELY VERSUS WED MORNING. 03/13Z RUC HRRR AND 03/12Z UNIV
OF AZ WRF-NAM QUITE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT
TO FIRST OCCUR JUST SOUTH OF TUCSON BY ABOUT 19Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RUC HRRR AND U OF AZ WRF-NAM COMP REFLECTIVITY
SIGNATURES AND 10 M WINDS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
BLOWING DUST THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST AREA FOR WIDESPREAD BLOWING
DUST SHOULD BE ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...THEN WIDESPREAD
BLOWING DUST SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN TUCSON AND PHOENIX. A BLOWING DUST
ADVISORY WILL BE FORTHCOMING FOR THIS SCENARIO. POPS WILL BE
INCREASED FOR WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS PROGGED TO MOVE WEST-TO-NORTHWEST OF THIS FORECAST
AREA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-WIDE LATE
TONIGHT.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO MAY OCCUR FRI...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAIL WILL
CERTAINLY NOT BE IDENTICAL. THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS PROGGED
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SELY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER
NWRN NEW MEXICO. VARIOUS NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI WOULD BE ACROSS WRN SECTIONS...WITH SOME DRYING
ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS INTO SWRN NEW MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
TSTMS WILL OCCUR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING FOLLOWED BY DECREASING
COVERAGE LATE FRI NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE ACROSS
THE WRN CONUS INTO THE SRN CONUS PLAINS SAT-WED. THERE SHOULD BE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOISTURE ACROSS SE AZ THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO CLEAR
DISTINCTION REGARDING ENHANCED CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS VERSUS
LESSER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. THUS...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON/
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON...WITH
GENERALLY LESSER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON WWD/NWWD.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/18Z.
TSRA/SHRA TO DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF KTUS BY AROUND 19Z TODAY...
THEN SCT-NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR
VISIBILITIES TO OCCUR WITH +TSRA...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 45 KTS. TSRA/SHRA COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL BE AROUND
10-15K FT AGL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER....
ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
445 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 437 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER OUR NRN ZONES
THIS AFTN SO BUMPED UP POPS IN THAT AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST THINKING AS CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIE
DOWN AS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
MOISTURE IS BEING WRAPPED UP IN COUNTERCLOCKWISE FLOW UNDERNEATH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THOUGH DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AFTER 8PM DUE TO INCREASING STABILITY WITH SFC COOLING.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
LATE IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE AREA OF CONVECTION WELL
TODAY AND PROJECTS MOISTURE TO WRAP BACK AROUND FROM THE EAST
AFTER 6PM IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN REGION BUT DISSIPATED BY
MIDNIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WELL WITH 0.75 INCH PWATS REMAINING UNDER THE RIDGE...MEDIOCRE
40KT DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND INCREASED SUNSHINE DUE TO A LACK OF
ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...DUE TO A LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING
AND STEERING...STORM CELLS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NOT DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS. THE SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORED AS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
IN THIS REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK FOR CONTINUED HOT TEMPS. MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH NORTH OVER UT/WRN CO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
POOLING OVER SRN AZ/SRN NM/NWRN MEXICO TO GRADUALLY EXPAND
NORTHWARD...WHILE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH.
DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY SMALL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM MOST AFTERNOONS IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION.
STORM COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL...TO SCATTERED OVER THE SAN JUANS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 0.5 TO 0.65 INCH THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MIX
OF WET AND DRY STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN UTAH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE BIGGEST THREAT.
KTEX AND KDRO ARE THE MOST FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OF
THE REGIONAL TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET IN MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN REGION INCLUDING KDRO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR
DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CO ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONCENTRATED OVER THE SAN JUAN
MTNS SO FAR TODAY BUT WILL DRIFT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FWX
ZONE 207 LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. STORMS WERE MORE ISOLATED
ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND...STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MIX OF WET
AND DRY. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK KEEPING
THE DRYING POTENTIAL HIGH.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ207-290>293.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JAM
FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
331 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
MOISTURE IS BEING WRAPPED UP IN COUNTERCLOCKWISE FLOW UNDERNEATH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THOUGH DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AFTER 8PM DUE TO INCREASING STABILITY WITH SFC COOLING.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
LATE IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE AREA OF CONVECTION WELL
TODAY AND PROJECTS MOISTURE TO WRAP BACK AROUND FROM THE EAST
AFTER 6PM IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN REGION BUT DISSIPATED BY
MIDNIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WELL WITH 0.75 INCH PWATS REMAINING UNDER THE RIDGE...MEDIOCRE
40KT DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND INCREASED SUNSHINE DUE TO A LACK OF
ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...DUE TO A LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING
AND STEERING...STORM CELLS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NOT DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS. THE SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORED AS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
IN THIS REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK FOR CONTINUED HOT TEMPS. MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH NORTH OVER UT/WRN CO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
POOLING OVER SRN AZ/SRN NM/NWRN MEXICO TO GRADUALLY EXPAND
NORTHWARD...WHILE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH.
DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY SMALL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM MOST AFTERNOONS IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION.
STORM COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL...TO SCATTERED OVER THE SAN JUANS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 0.5 TO 0.65 INCH THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MIX
OF WET AND DRY STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN UTAH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE BIGGEST THREAT.
KTEX AND KDRO ARE THE MOST FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OF
THE REGIONAL TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET IN MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN REGION INCLUDING KDRO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR
DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CO ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONCENTRATED OVER THE SAN JUAN
MTNS SO FAR TODAY BUT WILL DRIFT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FWX
ZONE 207 LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. STORMS WERE MORE ISOLATED
ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND...STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MIX OF WET
AND DRY. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK KEEPING
THE DRYING POTENTIAL HIGH.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ207-290>293.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JAM
FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1025 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TO START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA. THE SYSTEM`S
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1024 PM EDT...TC ARTHUR IS SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET...AND IS RAPIDLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE STORM IS
STARTING TO BECOME EXTRA TROPICAL...AS THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING
THE STORM IS BECOMING ASYMMETRIC AND DRIER AIR IS ROTATING INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CIRRUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOW EAST OF OUR ENTIRE AREA. A COASTAL
FRONTAL THAT HAD BEEN PRODUCING SOME EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND IS ALSO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND AWAY FROM OUR
AREA...AND STEADY RAIN IS WELL AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SITUATED TO OUR WEST OVER
CENTRAL NY. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS ARE DRY...THIS TROUGH HAS ALLOWED
FOR SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THE 3KM HRRR MODEL DOES SHOW SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT WITH THE DEVELOPING
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND LACK OF MOISTURE...IT SEEMS IT WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH AROUND. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW POPS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO...OTHERWISE...SOME SCT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
BY LATE TONIGHT...EVERYWHERE SHOULD BE CLEAR...AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NOTICEABLY LOWER. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT BREEZE DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AROUND THE DEPARTING TC AND THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH...SO NO
RADIATIONAL FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
ALSO...REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY
JULY 3RD...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN CONFIRMED IN
HERKIMER AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
WITH THE DETAILS HAS BEEN POSTED TO OUR WEB PAGE UNDER NEWS
HEADLINES. ALSO A MAP OF HAS BEEN POSTED TO OUR FACEBOOK PAGE AND
TWEETED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKING AT A DRY WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE ON THE RISE AS WE START THE NEW WORK WORK.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE ALOFT THE FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL.
ON SATURDAY...DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE 40S...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTING
UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL BE COMFORTABLE ON SUNDAY WITH DEW POINTS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH.
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE ON
THE RISE...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE 60S. A POTENT SHORT WAVE
DIVING OUT OF CANADA WILL BEGIN TO RETURN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BACK
TO THE REGION. A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAST FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE
ON MONDAY INTRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO NEAR
2 INCHES MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL PRECEDE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING TIME PERIOD. IT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND WARM AND HUMID ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS OUR
AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT/S EVEN POSSIBLE THAT THE
FRONT WINDS UP STALLING CLOSE TO OUR REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS WELL AS IT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL
BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP DURING THE
DAYTIME HEATING. PWATS LOOK TO SURGE TO 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SO THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS LOOK POSSIBLE.
IT/S TOUGH TO ADDRESS YET THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO LOOK
MUGGY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S...AND DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO REACH IN THE
80S.
EVENTUALLY...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR IT TO BE A LITTLE LESS HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING DOWN
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEASONABLY WARM IN THE 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF TC ARTHUR
AND A COASTAL FRONT ARE DIMINISHING...AS THESE FEATURE ARE MOVING
EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A LIGHT N-NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT
THE FORMATION OF ANY FOG TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DURING
DAYTIME MIXING...NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TO START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. IT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COVER TO 85 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH MINIMUMS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEY WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MINIMUMS IN THE 30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ARE CRESTING OR HAVE
RECENTLY CRESTED. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE DRY
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TO START OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA.
THE SYSTEM`S ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
447 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
LAST INTO THE EVENING...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. HURRICANE ARTHUR
WILL PASS BY TO OUR EAST ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...PULLING IN DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AS LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #391 NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT FOR
ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 12 AM EDT FRIDAY MORNING...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BLOSSOMED ACROSS THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THAT YIELDED SBCAPE AND MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TREKKING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK. A PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAS ALSO HELPED PROMOTE DYNAMIC
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION.
BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6KM LAYER ARE APPROACHING 50
KNOTS...WHICH HAS ENABLED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO FORM ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...LIKELY AIDED BY LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS.
WHILE ADDITIONAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
SHEAR VALUES...THE SHEAR VECTORS THEMSELVES ARE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO
THE COLD FRONT SO DOMINANT STORM MODE SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION
TO LINEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY SUPERCELL THAT DOES
FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. PLEASE MONITOR OUR WEBPAGE AND
SOCIAL MEDIA PAGES FOR THE LATEST REGARDING THIS EVOLVING SITUATION.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT CLEARING ACROSS
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WHICH WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF CONTINUE TO
SHOW SIGNALS OF A QLCS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. LATEST SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MUCH OF THE
SHEAR IS CONCENTRATED IN THE 2-4KM LAYER...WHICH COULD FURTHER
ENHANCE ANY COLD POOLS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM THE STORMS DUE TO
NONHYDROSTATIC EFFECTS. COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE
VALUES...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A
LONG DURATION WIND EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.
FURTHER EXACERBATING ISSUES IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MUCH
OF THE AREA RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM THE CONVECTION
YESTERDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-3+ INCHES ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 14 KFT AND PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-2.00 INCHES...EXTREMELY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES WILL BE FAVORED WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES
WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUND AND THE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
URBAN AREAS.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...STALLING
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE PEAKED ACROSS THE REGION...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID 80S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HURRICANE ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST WELL OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...HAVING NO EFFECTS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO SET UP
ACROSS AN AREA STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEW JERSEY TO CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS. THIS REGION OF CONVERGENCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE
COLD FRONT AS IT STALLS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HELPING TO
STEER HURRICANE ARTHUR OFFSHORE. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS A
QUASI-PRE SETUP...ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO ASCERN.
REGARDLESS...A PERIOD OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND
POSSIBLY NORTHWARD INTO ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE BULK OF
THE RAINFALL APPEARS THAT IT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL RACE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...DRAGGING IN
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR BEHIND IT ACROSS THE REGION. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER AND DECREASING CLOUDS TO END
INDEPENDENCE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR GORGEOUS AND DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...GENERALLY IN THE
70S. HIGHS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE TYPICAL WEATHER FOR
EARLY JULY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL AS EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC AND A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE HAVE A CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS MONDAY WHEN HEATING IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD AS
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THEN...A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. DIFFICULT TO TIME
ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHER THAN A FEW ROGUE SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THE
BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN LATE AFTERNOON AND MID
EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AS ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF TSRA MOVES
THROUGH. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY TSRA. CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION
TSRA WITH IFR IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
POTENTIAL SOLID LINE OF TSRA WITH DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS SWEEPING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 22Z-02Z. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY
KPSF/KPOU AFTER 12Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 58 MPH AND LARGE HAIL ONE INCH OR GREATER IN DIAMETER...WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ENTIRE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...LAST TO
DO SO SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE DAY WILL START OUT DAMP AND MURKY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH A
SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE...AND EVEN SOME LEFTOVER STEADY RAIN WELL
SOUTH EAST OF ALBANY. WITH TIME...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD MIX AND RH
VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN ELEVATED
ABOVE 50 PERCENT EVEN AS A BREEZE KICKS FROM THE NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH.
THAT BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE IN MANY PLACES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SKY
CLEARS.
SATURDAY WILL BE A MUCH DRIER DAY WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. RH
VALUES BY AFTERNOON LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 30S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
BE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
SUNDAY LOOKS DRY TOO WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE REGION...AND IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 1-2 INCHES.
HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS WELL OVER 2 INCHES...IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AS
PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES. THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA AS WELL. COMBINED WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE
CONVECTION YESTERDAY...FLASH FLOODING AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
OUR PROJECTED AVERAGE RIVER BASIN RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY ONLY CAUSE
SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT SOME OF THE STAGES COULD REACH "ACTION
STAGE" ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD TAKE PLACE OVER A
CRITICAL BASIN AREA. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY RIVER
FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS EARLY
FRIDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOWS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/IRL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
233 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
LAST INTO THE EVENING...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. HURRICANE ARTHUR
WILL PASS BY TO OUR EAST ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...PULLING IN DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AS LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #391 NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT
FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 12 AM EDT FRIDAY MORNING...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...CONTINUING TO MONITOR DESTABILIZATION TRENDS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOW SPAWNING A NICE CU
FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOW
STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT IS NOW FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...SBCAPE AND MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG
SHOULD EASILY BE REACHED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...PROVIDING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SYNOPTICALLY A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
NEW YORK...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE WITH
INCREASING INTENSITY AHEAD OF IT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP
TO FURTHER INCREASE DYNAMIC LIFT AMIDST CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH...OR MORE OF A
DIABATIC HEATING BOUNDARY...LOCATED EAST OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK. IT IS HERE WHERE MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR
AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF SIGNAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN 17Z-19Z.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...WITH ALREADY ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
PA...WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH NOW A 30%
CONTOUR FOR WIND FROM INTERSTATE 90 AND LOCATIONS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST ONLY AROUND 6.0
C/KM...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HAIL.
REGARDLESS...TALL AND ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE STILL EXPECTED AS BULK
SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6KM LAYER ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 40-50 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS STORM
ORGANIZATION. EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT TO BE FROM STRAIGHT-
LINE WINDS AS THE SHEAR VECTORS ARE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A TRANSITION FROM INITIALLY DISCRETE
CELLS QUICKLY TO A LINEAR MODE. THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF ALSO
SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...DEVELOPING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION AND
TRACKING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
GIVEN THE MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES IN THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG SHEAR...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED AND LONG
DURATION WIND THREAT. IF A LINE OF ROBUST CONVECTION CAN FORM...A
STRONG COLD POOL MAY DEVELOP AIDED BY STRONG EVAPORATIONAL COOLING
FROM THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED AND A RELATIVELY DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER.
FURTHER EXACERBATING ISSUES IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MUCH
OF THE AREA RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM THE CONVECTION
YESTERDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-3+ INCHES ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 14 KFT AND PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-2.00 INCHES...EXTREMELY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES WILL BE FAVORED WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES
WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUND AND THE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
URBAN AREAS.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
20Z-02Z...AGAIN WITH THE GREATEST THREATS BEING FROM STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRE (OR LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE
ONGOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OR SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT ANOTHER PRE (OR MAYBE THE REAL PRE) WILL
DEVELOPING MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION LATER THIS EVENING...BUT COULD
VERY WELL INCLUDE LITCHFIELD AN PERHAPS THE I-84 WEST INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY.
MEANWHILE A SLOW MOVING COLD WILL REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS
DURING THE EVENING...CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
SLOW SWING THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINING SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAWN.
HURRICANE ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...THEN
MAKE MORE OF A NORTHEASTERN TURN FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD ENSURE
THAT IT WOULD NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING ANY OF OUR REGION.
FOR THE ALL THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS OF ARTHUR INCLUDING
TRACK...INTENSITY AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS...PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC)...AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.
ARTHUR WILL HOWEVER HAVE AN INDIRECT IMPACT ON OUR REGION IN THAT
ONCE IT PASSES BY TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN
NORTHWEST ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO
INFILTRATE THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...POSSIBLY SOME STEADIER RAIN IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL STILL HAVE TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY.
WITH TIME...CLOUDS WILL BEING TO DIMINISH...LAST TO HAPPEN IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...AND POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A GUSTY NORTH
OR NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS CLEARING OUT ALLOWING FOR
A COOL NIGHT. A BREEZE COULD PERSIST BUT EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACK PARK.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A TERRIFIC DAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU. IT WILL BE BREEZY BUT WITH
VERY COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. DEEP MIXING AND THE STRONG JULY
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEAR 80 IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN...DESPITE H850
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO A LITTLE BELOW 10C.
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL WITH DIMINISHING WIND SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHEASTWARD...40S WELL
NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE TYPICAL WEATHER FOR
EARLY JULY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL AS EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC AND A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE HAVE A CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS MONDAY WHEN HEATING IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD AS
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THEN...A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. DIFFICULT TO TIME
ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHER THAN A FEW ROGUE SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THE
BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN LATE AFTERNOON AND MID
EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AS ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF TSRA MOVES
THROUGH. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY TSRA. CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION
TSRA WITH IFR IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
POTENTIAL SOLID LINE OF TSRA WITH DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS SWEEPING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 22Z-02Z. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY
KPSF/KPOU AFTER 12Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE DAY WILL START OFF WITH AREAS OF FOG. THEN SOME HAZY SUNSHINE
WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDDAY. AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BEGINS
PRESSING INTO THE REGION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IGNITE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE WILL
CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MOST EVERYONE WILL RECEIVE
WELL OVER A QUARTER OF INCH OF RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS QUITE VARIABLE.
SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...LAST TO
DO SO SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE DAY WILL START OUT DAMP AND MURKY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH A
SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE...AND EVEN SOME LEFTOVER STEADY RAIN WELL
SOUTH EAST OF ALBANY. WITH TIME...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD MIX AND RH
VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN ELEVATED
ABOVE 50 PERCENT EVEN AS A BREEZE KICKS FROM THE NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH.
THAT BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE IN MANY PLACES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SKY
CLEARS.
SATURDAY WILL BE A MUCH DRIER DAY WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. RH
VALUES BY AFTERNOON LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 30S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
BE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
SUNDAY LOOKS DRY TOO WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT.
AFTER A RESPITE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE UP
ONCE MORE AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS...ANY THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS WELL OVER 2 INCHES...IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AS PWATS
CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA AS WELL.
SINCE THERE WAS PLENTY OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...THE HIGH PWATS...THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WHAT WE HAVE TODAY COULD BE THE FIRST "PRE"
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ARTHUR (STILL SLATED TO MISS US)...WE
ISSUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE CONFIDENCE WAS AROUND 50 PERCENT
THAT IT WILL HAPPEN SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN VERMONT
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
OUR PROJECTED AVERAGE RIVER BASIN RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY ONLY CAUSE
SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT SOME OF THE STAGES COULD REACH "ACTION
STAGE" ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD TAKE PLACE OVER A
CRITICAL BASIN AREA. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY RIVER
FLOODING.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOWS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/JPV
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
152 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
LAST INTO THE EVENING...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. HURRICANE ARTHUR
WILL PASS BY TO OUR EAST ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...PULLING IN DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AS LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 12 AM EDT FRIDAY MORNING...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...CONTINUING TO MONITOR DESTABILIZATION TRENDS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOW SPAWNING A NICE CU
FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOW
STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT IS NOW FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...SBCAPE AND MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG
SHOULD EASILY BE REACHED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...PROVIDING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SYNOPTICALLY A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
NEW YORK...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE WITH
INCREASING INTENSITY AHEAD OF IT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP
TO FURTHER INCREASE DYNAMIC LIFT AMIDST CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH...OR MORE OF A
DIABATIC HEATING BOUNDARY...LOCATED EAST OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK. IT IS HERE WHERE MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR
AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF SIGNAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN 17Z-19Z.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...WITH ALREADY ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
PA...WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH NOW A 30%
CONTOUR FOR WIND FROM INTERSTATE 90 AND LOCATIONS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST ONLY AROUND 6.0
C/KM...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HAIL.
REGARDLESS...TALL AND ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE STILL EXPECTED AS BULK
SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6KM LAYER ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 40-50 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS STORM
ORGANIZATION. EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT TO BE FROM STRAIGHT-
LINE WINDS AS THE SHEAR VECTORS ARE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A TRANSITION FROM INITIALLY DISCRETE
CELLS QUICKLY TO A LINEAR MODE. THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF ALSO
SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...DEVELOPING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION AND
TRACKING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
GIVEN THE MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES IN THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG SHEAR...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED AND LONG
DURATION WIND THREAT. IF A LINE OF ROBUST CONVECTION CAN FORM...A
STRONG COLD POOL MAY DEVELOP AIDED BY STRONG EVAPORATIONAL COOLING
FROM THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED AND A RELATIVELY DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER.
FURTHER EXACERBATING ISSUES IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MUCH
OF THE AREA RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM THE CONVECTION
YESTERDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-3+ INCHES ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 14 KFT AND PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-2.00 INCHES...EXTREMELY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES WILL BE FAVORED WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES
WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUND AND THE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
URBAN AREAS.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
20Z-02Z...AGAIN WITH THE GREATEST THREATS BEING FROM STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRE (OR LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE
ONGOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OR SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT ANOTHER PRE (OR MAYBE THE REAL PRE) WILL
DEVELOPING MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION LATER THIS EVENING...BUT COULD
VERY WELL INCLUDE LITCHFIELD AN PERHAPS THE I-84 WEST INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY.
MEANWHILE A SLOW MOVING COLD WILL REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS
DURING THE EVENING...CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
SLOW SWING THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINING SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAWN.
HURRICANE ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...THEN
MAKE MORE OF A NORTHEASTERN TURN FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD ENSURE
THAT IT WOULD NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING ANY OF OUR REGION.
FOR THE ALL THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS OF ARTHUR INCLUDING
TRACK...INTENSITY AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS...PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC)...AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.
ARTHUR WILL HOWEVER HAVE AN INDIRECT IMPACT ON OUR REGION IN THAT
ONCE IT PASSES BY TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN
NORTHWEST ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO
INFILTRATE THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...POSSIBLY SOME STEADIER RAIN IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL STILL HAVE TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY.
WITH TIME...CLOUDS WILL BEING TO DIMINISH...LAST TO HAPPEN IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...AND POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A GUSTY NORTH
OR NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS CLEARING OUT ALLOWING FOR
A COOL NIGHT. A BREEZE COULD PERSIST BUT EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACK PARK.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A TERRIFIC DAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU. IT WILL BE BREEZY BUT WITH
VERY COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. DEEP MIXING AND THE STRONG JULY
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEAR 80 IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN...DESPITE H850
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO A LITTLE BELOW 10C.
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL WITH DIMINISHING WIND SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHEASTWARD...40S WELL
NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE TYPICAL WEATHER FOR
EARLY JULY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL AS EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC AND A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE HAVE A CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS MONDAY WHEN HEATING IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD AS
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THEN...A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. DIFFICULT TO TIME
ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHER THAN A FEW ROGUE SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THE
BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN LATE AFTERNOON AND MID
EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AS ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF TSRA MOVES
THROUGH. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY TSRA. CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION
TSRA WITH IFR IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
POTENTIAL SOLID LINE OF TSRA WITH DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS SWEEPING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 22Z-02Z. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY
KPSF/KPOU AFTER 12Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE DAY WILL START OFF WITH AREAS OF FOG. THEN SOME HAZY SUNSHINE
WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDDAY. AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BEGINS
PRESSING INTO THE REGION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IGNITE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE WILL
CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MOST EVERYONE WILL RECEIVE
WELL OVER A QUARTER OF INCH OF RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS QUITE VARIABLE.
SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...LAST TO
DO SO SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE DAY WILL START OUT DAMP AND MURKY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH A
SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE...AND EVEN SOME LEFTOVER STEADY RAIN WELL
SOUTH EAST OF ALBANY. WITH TIME...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD MIX AND RH
VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN ELEVATED
ABOVE 50 PERCENT EVEN AS A BREEZE KICKS FROM THE NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH.
THAT BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE IN MANY PLACES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SKY
CLEARS.
SATURDAY WILL BE A MUCH DRIER DAY WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. RH
VALUES BY AFTERNOON LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 30S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
BE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
SUNDAY LOOKS DRY TOO WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT.
AFTER A RESPITE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE UP
ONCE MORE AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS...ANY THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS WELL OVER 2 INCHES...IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AS PWATS
CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA AS WELL.
SINCE THERE WAS PLENTY OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...THE HIGH PWATS...THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WHAT WE HAVE TODAY COULD BE THE FIRST "PRE"
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ARTHUR (STILL SLATED TO MISS US)...WE
ISSUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE CONFIDENCE WAS AROUND 50 PERCENT
THAT IT WILL HAPPEN SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN VERMONT
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
OUR PROJECTED AVERAGE RIVER BASIN RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY ONLY CAUSE
SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT SOME OF THE STAGES COULD REACH "ACTION
STAGE" ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD TAKE PLACE OVER A
CRITICAL BASIN AREA. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY RIVER
FLOODING.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOWS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1107 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
LAST INTO THE EVENING...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. HURRICANE ARTHUR
WILL PASS BY TO OUR EAST ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...PULLING IN DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AS LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1105 AM EDT...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADD
LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SO NOW THE WATCH
ENCOMPASSES ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. LITCHFIELD COUNTY RECEIVED BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN
YESTERDAY...AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THIS AREA WITH
THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING.
OTHERWISE...DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION WESTWARD. STILL A SOLID BATCH OF LINGERING
STRATUS CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LATE THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SMALL DISTURBANCE. THIS AREA SHOULD
SEE CLEARING BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION
TO OCCUR. IN FACT...CLOUDS AREA ALREADY MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SO THE BEST
INSTABILITY AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA...AND ESPECIALLY FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD TO LITCHFIELD CT.
WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HI RES MODELS
SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR INDICATING CONVECTIVE INITIATION
WILL BE A FEW HOURS LATER THAN YESTERDAY...MORE LIKELY IN THE 2-4
PM TIME FRAME TODAY. THE DEGREE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IS
STILL IN QUESTION...AS THERE ARE MITIGATING FACTORS SUCH AS WEAKER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0C/KM AND LESS MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 40 KT TODAY SO IF TALL UPDRAFTS CAN DEVELOP THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE AND BECOME SEVERE. SBCAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE...WITH THE MOST
INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WITH
CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL MAKE IT FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE.
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO THE
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRE (OR LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE
ONGOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OR SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT ANOTHER PRE (OR MAYBE THE REAL PRE) WILL
DEVELOPING MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION LATER THIS EVENING...BUT COULD
VERY WELL INCLUDE LITCHFIELD AN PERHAPS THE I-84 WEST INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY.
MEANWHILE A SLOW MOVING COLD WILL REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS
DURING THE EVENING...CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
SLOW SWING THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINING SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAWN.
HURRICANE ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...THEN
MAKE MORE OF A NORTHEASTERN TURN FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD ENSURE
THAT IT WOULD NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING ANY OF OUR REGION.
FOR THE ALL THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS OF ARTHUR INCLUDING
TRACK...INTENSITY AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS...PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC)...AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.
ARTHUR WILL HOWEVER HAVE AN INDIRECT IMPACT ON OUR REGION IN THAT
ONCE IT PASSES BY TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN
NORTHWEST ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO
INFILTRATE THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...POSSIBLY SOME STEADIER RAIN IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL STILL HAVE TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY.
WITH TIME...CLOUDS WILL BEING TO DIMINISH...LAST TO HAPPEN IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...AND POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A GUSTY NORTH
OR NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS CLEARING OUT ALLOWING FOR
A COOL NIGHT. A BREEZE COULD PERSIST BUT EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACK PARK.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A TERRIFIC DAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU. IT WILL BE BREEZY BUT WITH
VERY COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. DEEP MIXING AND THE STRONG JULY
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEAR 80 IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN...DESPITE H850
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO A LITTLE BELOW 10C.
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL WITH DIMINISHING WIND SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHEASTWARD...40S WELL
NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE SHOULD ROUND OUT THIS FIRST WEEKEND OF JULY ON A DRY NOTE AS
ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION. AS H850 TEMPS HOVER
INTO THE MID TEENS...SHOULD RESULT IN VALLEY HIGHS INTO THE LOW-MID
80S AND 75-80F FOR THE TERRAIN.
UPSTREAM...A WARM FRONT BECOMES A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS THE WESTERLIES
INCREASE ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WE WILL INCREASE POPS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
INCREASE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MORE MILDER WITH MAINLY 60S.
A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK
AS THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND A
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP THE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORIES.
THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE THE MON-TUE
TIME FRAME AS GLOBAL MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WITH FG/BR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BUT AS THE
MORNING PROGRESS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 13Z-15Z. KPSF WILL BE SLOWEST TO IMPROVE. THEN OUR
ATTENTION SHIFTS TOWARD CONVECTION AS SHOWERS WERE ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT KPOU THIS EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE A SIGN
FOR THINGS TO COME LATER ON AS MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
TO AT LEAST MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH SOME SHORTER PERIODS OF
IFR TOO. THE RAINFALL WILL BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY THAT CAN POSE
ADDITIONAL LOWERING OF THE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO IFR.
THE WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS
OF 10KTS OR LESS /EXCEPT HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS/.
THOSE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE DAY WILL START OFF WITH AREAS OF FOG. THEN SOME HAZY SUNSHINE
WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDDAY. AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BEGINS
PRESSING INTO THE REGION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IGNITE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE WILL
CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MOST EVERYONE WILL RECEIVE
WELL OVER A QUARTER OF INCH OF RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS QUITE VARIABLE.
SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...LAST TO
DO SO SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE DAY WILL START OUT DAMP AND MURKY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH A
SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE...AND EVEN SOME LEFTOVER STEADY RAIN WELL
SOUTH EAST OF ALBANY. WITH TIME...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD MIX AND RH
VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN ELEVATED
ABOVE 50 PERCENT EVEN AS A BREEZE KICKS FROM THE NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH.
THAT BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE IN MANY PLACES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SKY
CLEARS.
SATURDAY WILL BE A MUCH DRIER DAY WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. RH
VALUES BY AFTERNOON LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 30S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
BE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
SUNDAY LOOKS DRY TOO WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT.
AFTER A RESPITE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE UP
ONCE MORE AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS...ANY THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS WELL OVER 2 INCHES...IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AS PWATS
CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA AS WELL.
SINCE THERE WAS PLENTY OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...THE HIGH PWATS...THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WHAT WE HAVE TODAY COULD BE THE FIRST "PRE"
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ARTHUR (STILL SLATED TO MISS US)...WE
ISSUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE CONFIDENCE WAS AROUND 50 PERCENT
THAT IT WILL HAPPEN SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN VERMONT
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
OUR PROJECTED AVERAGE RIVER BASIN RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY ONLY CAUSE
SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT SOME OF THE STAGES COULD REACH "ACTION
STAGE" ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD TAKE PLACE OVER A
CRITICAL BASIN AREA. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY RIVER
FLOODING.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOWS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
751 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
EARLIER SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED...AND LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS HAVE PREVENTED ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE BROWARD/DADE/PALM BEACH COASTS THIS EVENING.
THUS...EXPECTING THE SWATH OF RAIN THROUGH INLAND PALM
BEACH/BROWARD TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS NE
OF NAPLES IS MOVING WEST TOWARDS THE COAST...BUT MAY ALSO WEAKEN
BEFORE ARRIVING TO I-75. HOWEVER...ANY OUTFLOW FROM THIS CLUSTER
MAY SPAWN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT A LITTLE LATER CONSIDERING THE
LACK OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY. REGARDLESS...POPS
WERE REDUCED TO SLT CHC IN SOME AREAS ALONG THE COASTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
AVIATION...
MOST OF THE TAF SITES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THAT A FEW SHOWERS
COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES OF KPBI AND KAPF THROUGH 02Z.
THEREFORE...VCSH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL 02Z FOR KAPF AND KPBI
TAF SITES BEFORE GOING DRY TONIGHT WITH REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF
SITES BEING DRY.
THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT OVER ALL OF THE
TAF SITES. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE SMOKE FROM THE FIREWORKS TO
REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES A LITTLE BIT BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z...BUT
WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS BEFORE PUTTING IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THE REDUCE VIS.
AVIATION...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WIDELY DISPERSED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. IN GENERAL STORM MOTION IS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH
THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA EXPECTED TO
HAVE THE MOST COVERAGE. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW THIS TREND
AS WELL.
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THEN EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TOWARD HURRICANE
ARTHUR. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT AREA OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND EXTEND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR HAS
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES...I.E. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
MOISTURE...WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
IN GENERAL WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 89 77 89 / 30 40 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 90 80 90 / 20 40 20 40
MIAMI 77 90 78 90 / 20 40 20 40
NAPLES 75 91 74 91 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
714 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE TAF SITES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THAT A FEW SHOWERS
COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES OF KPBI AND KAPF THROUGH 02Z.
THEREFORE...VCSH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL 02Z FOR KAPF AND KPBI
TAF SITES BEFORE GOING DRY TONIGHT WITH REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF
SITES BEING DRY.
THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT OVER ALL OF THE
TAF SITES. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE SMOKE FROM THE FIREWORKS TO
REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES A LITTLE BIT BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z...BUT
WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS BEFORE PUTTING IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THE REDUCE VIS.
&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WIDELY DISPERSED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. IN GENERAL STORM MOTION IS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH
THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA EXPECTED TO
HAVE THE MOST COVERAGE. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW THIS TREND
AS WELL.
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THEN EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TOWARD HURRICANE
ARTHUR. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT AREA OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND EXTEND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR HAS
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES...I.E. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
MOISTURE...WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
IN GENERAL WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 89 77 89 / 30 40 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 90 80 90 / 30 40 20 40
MIAMI 77 90 78 90 / 30 40 20 40
NAPLES 75 91 74 91 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1106 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.UPDATE...THERE IS A RESIDUAL SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WHERE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE IMPETUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GEORGIA. HRRR LEAST ROBUST WITH
PRECIPITATION TODAY...WITH RUC13 AND NSSL WRF SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS ACROSS NE FLORIDA. WILL GO WITH
THE RUC13 AND WRF SOLUTIONS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...
PRIMARILY AFTER 20Z...WITH WANING CONVECTION AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
DUSK.
&&
.AVIATION...WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION LATER THIS MORNING...WITH AFTN TSTORM PROBABILITIES AROUND
40% AT ALL TERMINALS WITH VCTS BETWEEN 19-01Z. CONVECTION WANES
AROUND 02Z WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS WITH VSBYS
DROPPING TO 5SM AT CECIL FIELD. DRIER AIR SEEPS INTO THE REGION
FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...WITH TSTM COVERAGE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH 2 PM. COMBINED SEAS IN THE 40 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILE RANGE
WILL CONTINUE IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE...WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO
20 KNOT RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS NORTH OF THE ST. MARYS RIVER
40 TO 60NM OFFSHORE OF THE ALTAMAHA SOUND. AFTER 2 PM...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECAY AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO ELEVATED SWELLS
FROM ARTHUR. A ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 98 71 95 71 / 30 30 0 10
SSI 93 76 91 75 / 40 30 10 20
JAX 96 75 96 74 / 40 30 20 30
SGJ 93 76 91 75 / 40 20 40 40
GNV 93 74 94 71 / 40 30 30 30
OCF 93 74 93 71 / 40 30 40 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-
FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA
SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SANDRIK/CORDERO/GUILLET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1224 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TODAY...AND CONTINUE MOVING NE TOWARDS THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER OUR REGION BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD GRAZE THE
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY.
THE HRRR MODEL INDICATED CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS. THE SPC WRF
INDICATED LESS COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM WILL HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 20 PERCENT WEST TO 40 PERCENT
EAST.
LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO
AROUND 90 WEST ARE WELL ON THEIR WAY TO HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 90S EAST TO THE UPPER 90S WEST.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR WILL ENTER OUR REGION BEHIND ARTHUR AND THE UPPER AND
SURFACE TROUGH....REINFORCED BY ANOTHER DRY SURFACE TROUGH COMING
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE QUITE DRY AIR TO FILTER
IN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO 0.75 TO 1 INCH...AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN INTO THE 50S IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR REGION...WITH GRADUAL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASE...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST
OVER THE SOUTH FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND REMAINDER OF THE FA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID WEEK...THE E CONUS UPPER TROUGH MAY DIG SOME WHILE
A SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MAY PROVIDE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BANDS OF CONVECTION FROM HURRICANE ARTHUR TO
CROSS THE MIDLANDS AFFECTING CAE/CUB/OGB DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
ARTHUR WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE SC COAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING
A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE TAF SITES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM
23Z-04Z.
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING
BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND ARTHUR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NOT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1059 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD GRAZE THE
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY.
THE HRRR MODEL INDICATED CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS. THE SPC WRF
INDICATED LESS COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM WILL HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 20 PERCENT WEST TO 40 PERCENT
EAST.
LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO
AROUND 90 WEST ARE WELL ON THEIR WAY TO HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 90S EAST TO THE UPPER 90S WEST.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. USED THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD
GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DOWNSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND
APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT AND EXPECT
FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AND ALLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 10 TO
30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BANDS OF CONVECTION FROM HURRICANE ARTHUR TO
CROSS THE MIDLANDS AFFECTING CAE/CUB/OGB DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
ARTHUR WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE SC COAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING
A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE TAF SITES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM
23Z-04Z.
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING
BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND ARTHUR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NOT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
752 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE ON
THE FOURTH OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRAZE THE
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 07Z HRRR DISPLAYED
CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SPC WRF INDICATED LESS
COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL
HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT...BUT
RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUPPORT HIGHER POPS IN THE EXTREME EAST
PART. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WE
USED THE HOTTER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF
MIXING TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. USED THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD
GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DOWNSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND
APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT AND EXPECT
FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AND ALLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 10 TO
30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY.
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WHILE A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CENTRAL MS RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD.
A LINE OF CONVECTION CROSSING THE MIDLANDS IN THE VCNTY OF CAE/CUB
THROUGH 14Z. ADDITIONAL BANDS OF CONVECTION FROM HURRICANE ARTHUR
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON....CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. ARTHUR WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE SC COAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE TAF
SITES FROM THE WEST. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 04/04Z.
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING...BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
MID TO LATE MORNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
638 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE ON
THE FOURTH OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRAZE THE
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 07Z HRRR DISPLAYED
CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SPC WRF INDICATED LESS
COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL
HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT...BUT
RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUPPORT HIGHER POPS IN THE EXTREME EAST
PART. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WE
USED THE HOTTER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF
MIXING TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. USED THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD
GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DOWNSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND
APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT AND EXPECT
FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AND ALLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 10 TO
30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY.
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CENTRAL MS
RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING SO HAVE ADDED VCSH TO THE CAE AND
CUB TAFS UNTIL 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 4 TO 5 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PICK
UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
NORTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 TO 18
KNOTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR DAYBREAK AT
OGB/AGS. WIND MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
600 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE ON
THE FOURTH OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRAZE THE
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 07Z HRRR DISPLAYED
CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SPC WRF INDICATED LESS
COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL
HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT...BUT
RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUPPORT HIGHER POPS IN THE EXTREME EAST
PART. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WE
USED THE HOTTER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF
MIXING TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. USED THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD
GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DOWNSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND
APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT AND EXPECT
FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AND ALLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 10 TO
30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY.
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CENTRAL MS RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 4 TO 5 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
NORTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 TO 18
KNOTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR DAYBREAK AT
OGB/AGS. WIND MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
500 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE ON
THE FOURTH OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRAZE THE
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 04Z HRRR DISPLAYED
CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SPC WRF INDICATED LESS
COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL
HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT...BUT
RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUPPORT HIGHER POPS IN THE EXTREME EAST
PART. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WE
USED THE HOTTER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF
MIXING TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. USED THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD
GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DOWNSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND
APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT AND EXPECT
FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AND ALLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 10 TO
30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY.
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CENTRAL MS RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER THE SC MIDLANDS SO HAVE ADDED VCSH TO THE CAE AND CUB
TAFS UNTIL 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 5 KNOTS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO NORTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON
AT AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 TO 18 KNOTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING
MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR DAYBREAK AT OGB/AGS. WIND MAY INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
457 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE ON
THE FOURTH OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRAZE THE
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 04Z HRRR DISPLAYED
CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SPC WRF INDICATED LESS
COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL
HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT...BUT
RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUPPORT HIGHER POPS IN THE EXTREME EAST
PART. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WE
USED THE HOTTER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF
MIXING TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. USED THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD
GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DOWNSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND
APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT AND EXPECT
FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AND ALLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 10 TO
30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY.
TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CENTRAL MS
RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 4 TO 5 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
NORTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 TO 18
KNOTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR DAYBREAK AT
OGB/AGS. WIND MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
443 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
DOMINATE ON THE FOURTH OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
GRAZE THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 04Z HRRR
DISPLAYED CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EXTREME EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SPC WRF INDICATED
LESS COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM
WILL HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE.
THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT...BUT
RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUPPORT HIGHER POPS IN THE EXTREME EAST
PART. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WE
USED THE HOTTER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF
MIXING TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. USED THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD
GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DOWNSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND
APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT AND EXPECT
FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AND ALLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 10 TO
30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY.
TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CENTRAL MS
RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 4 TO 5 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
NORTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 TO 18
KNOTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR DAYBREAK AT
OGB/AGS. WIND MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1137 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TONIGHT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ROCKIES TO SPREAD INTO OUR AREA AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT PERSISTENT
AREA OF WAA ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH IS SEEMINGLY ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A FEW AREAS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE RAP INDICATED
SOME ELEVATED CAPE/WEAK CINH IN THIS AREA...LAST FEW RUNS HAVE
INCREASED INHIBITION GREATLY SO CONFIDENCE IN OVERNIGHT
DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014
LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN
FEATURE OVER THE PLAINS WHICH LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE A SECOND WEAKER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND
600J/KG...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BEFORE MID
EVENING.
TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA AND BRING
HIGHER MIXING RATIOS UP FROM THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT.
THURSDAY THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...LEADING TO RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS. MIXING
RATIOS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW. DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON A FAIRLY WEAK 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 2000J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO BORDER AND LITTLE TO NO CINH...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DISAGREE WHERE EXACTLY THE TROUGH WILL
TRACK...BUT GENERALLY HAVE IT NORTH OF HWY 24. STORM MOVEMENT IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH...SO STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
JUST AHEAD OF IT AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE A DRY LINE WILL MOVE TO JUST WEST OF KIT CARSON AND
CHEYENNE COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP/FOLLOW THE DRY LINE AS IT MOVES EAST. DUE TO THE SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT OF ONLY 10KTS OR SO...ANY STORMS THAT BUILD OFF THE DRY
LINE WILL NOT MOVE INTO KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE DUE TO 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS AND SURFACE CAPE OF
2000J/KG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY
25. LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
STORMS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF AN INCH WILL ALLOW HEAVY RAINFALL TO
BE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014
A HOT WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE TRI-STATE REGION AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THERE WILL BE
A FEW CHANCES FOR STORMS...NOTABLY TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
OTHER THAN THESE TWO BETTER CHANCES...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
COMPARED TO THIS RECENT MONTH OF JUNE.
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT...STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD
SLOWLY MOVE EAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO MAY MAKE IT INTO EAST COLORADO BEFORE DISSIPATING. DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND MAY KEEP
CONVECTION GOING ALL NIGHT SIMILAR TO RECENT EVENTS. THE NOSE OF THE
JET WILL BE LOCATED ROUGH ALONG TO JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FROM
COLBY TO HILL CITY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ELEVATED
STORMS WILL RESIDE. WITH MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG...A FEW STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT.
ON FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR YET AGAIN ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF
8-9 C/KM. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS WEAKER...ON THE ORDER OF 20-30
KTS...ON FRIDAY SO STORMS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE. STORMS SHOULD
BE MORE OF THE PULSE VARIETY AND DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN BELOW
CLOUD LEVEL...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR DOWNBURSTS. IN ADDITION...
LARGE HAIL IS A THREAT WITH THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND...
LEADING TO A VERY HOT AND DRY FORECAST. WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE FORECAST BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A
FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS POPPED UP. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN EAST COLORADO SATURDAY BUT OTHER THAN THIS SLIM
CHANCE...THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY THIS WEEKEND.
ONE LAST HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
TOUGH AND COLD FRONT BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND FORCE IT BACK WEST.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
HARD TO PINPOINT RIGHT NOW...ESPECIALLY WHEN BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE
AROUND THE LINGERING FRONT AND MODELS DIFFER ON THEIR FRONTAL
POSITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW PERIODS
OF 5000-8000 FT CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INCREASING
IN COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD
AREA AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 22 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE
CHANCE FOR STORMS REMAINS TOMORROW EVENING...PROBABILITY TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
951 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VERY WARM AND MAINLY DRY DAY WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA FOR TODAY WITH A STRONG HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE STATE NORTHWARD THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES EAST OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL IMPROVE. CONVECTION INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MONTANA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
LATER IN THE DAY. RECENT HRRR MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD OFF ON BRINGING
IN SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNTIL AFTER
6 PM. ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS IDEA. WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CROSSING INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE
TRANSLATES EAST.
GIVEN HIGH SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS
ARE COLLAPSING ON THEIR WAY INTO THE FORECAST REGION ALLOWING
DOWNDRAFT AIR TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS ALONE IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN
AWARENESS PERTAINING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS FORT
PECK LAKE IN CLOSE TEMPORAL PROXIMITY TO THE HOLIDAY. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS SWAY ACROSS MOST OF
MONTANA AND THE SURROUNDING REGION...THE LARGE AND ACTIVE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIAN COAST IS BEGINNING TO
SNEAK THE FIRST WAVES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MONTANA.
FOR TODAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP THOSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA...BUT THEY
MIGHT JUST BE ABLE TO SNEAK OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT
AS INDICATED BY THE GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS. BEST GUESS PLACES GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING INTO THE
20G30 MPH RANGE. FELT IT WOULD BE JUST ENOUGH ABOVE BORDERLINE
CONDITIONS TO WARRANT ISSUING A LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BREAK INTO THE 90S FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ACROSS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE CWA. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT IF NOT CALM. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT OVER
TO OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR IT IS
NOT AS CONVINCING. NAM AND SREF SHOW IT BEST...BUT THE GFS AND EC
SHOW MORE OF A VIRGA OR JUST CLOUDINESS.
SATURDAY EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE 90S AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR OUR EASTERN CWA BORDER WITH NORTH
DAKOTA. YET...WITH ONLY LIMITED MODEL SUPPORT...NOT OVERLY
CONVINCED AT THIS POINT THAT ANY STORMS WILL HAPPEN AT ALL. BEST
INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONGREGATE OVER NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT BY
THE WEEKEND. THE RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AS
THE RIDGE REBOUNDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TROF DIGS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. NORTHEAST MONTANA REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY AREA
BETWEEN THE HOT DRY HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE COLDER
WETTER FLOW AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW. FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK THE
HOT DRY WEATHER HIGH WILL HAVE THE BIGGER IMPACT HOWEVER MODELS
SUGGESTING A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MIDWEEK
WHICH COULD PULL SOME OF THE COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD AND PRODUCE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.
TFJ
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
831 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 753 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE MOST RECENT
RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA TRENDS. IT APPEARS THAT IF ANY OF THE
CONVECTION THAT IS OUT IN COLORADO IS GOING TO MAKE IT INTO OUR
CWA...IT WILL MORE LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND I HAVE CUT
BACK CHANCES OF RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER
NORTH. LATER ON IN THE LATE EVENING PAST 10 PM...THE NOSE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET MAY VERY WELL BE FOCUSED TOWARD THE NORTHERN
CWA...WHERE I KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN A BIT HIGHER. OVERALL...CHANCES
OF RAIN DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT HIGH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MOST
LOCATIONS TO LET OFF FIREWORKS WITHOUT MUCH OF A HITCH...THE ONLY
CAVEAT MAY BE HOW MUCH WIND WE HAVE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE LOW-
LEVEL JET INCREASES. CONSRAW INDICATES SOME GUSTS MAY GET CLOSE TO
25 MPH. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE THE BEST INITIALIZED MODEL FOR
GAUGING WHERE RAIN MAY BE TONIGHT...AND IT POINTS MORE TO THE
SOUTH WHERE LEFTOVER CONVECTION OUT OF COLORADO WILL FINALLY MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO POSSIBLY GIVE A LITTLE RAIN BEFORE FALLING
APART. THERE COULD BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO...GIVEN MODERATE MID-
LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MODERATE SHEAR. THE WARM FRONT
APPEARS TO BE HEADING EAST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER
FORECAST...SO INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR
ROUGHLY OUR EASTERN TWO TIERS OF NEBRASKA COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND TEMPERATURES.
CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE ARE STILL
SOME AROUND. SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND HAVE BROUGHT IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS RAISING A FEW DEGREES IN
MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT LOCATIONS AND TIMING OF THE
STORMS. THE NAM HAS THEM MOVING INTO THE WEST ALREADY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS IT MORE DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE
NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE KEPT WITH
THAT AND HAVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THEN OVERNIGHT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.
THE NEXT QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHETHER ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW THAT LINGER
IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT AFTER THAT AND ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE
PLAINS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY...BEFORE A SERIES OF WEAK
FRONTS/DISTURBANCES RESULT IN HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...AND A RETURN TO A
MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALONG WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
FOR SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO EITHER THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OR TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
SURGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...WHICH COMBINED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE THE VERY
WARM AFTERNOON FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON HWO.
THEN...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
SURGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH MODEST SHEAR AND WEAK FORCING FROM
THE FRONT...COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS FIRE
UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THAT
SAID...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SPOTTY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SO
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS DEFINITELY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS POINT. THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACTUALLY APPEARS BE THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
SECONDARY FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THEREAFTER...CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDENT ON WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...AS AMPLE
INSTABILITY WILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION BACK ACROSS
THE PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM END
TO THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...REGARDING CEILINGS AND CEILING HEIGHTS.
THUNDERSTORMS IN COLORADO WILL MAKE THEIR WAY EAST THIS
EVENING...BUT NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. UNLESS NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS
ALONG THE NOSE OF AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUITE SMALL...AS ANY REMNANTS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. SOUTH
WIND SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BUT STAY A BIT ELEVATED
DUE TO AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. OF COURSE...WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD VARY IN OR NEAR A THUNDERSTORM...BUT THE CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT SEEMS TO BE DECREASING. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS GETTING CLOSE TO BE AN ISSUE NEAR 09Z AT ABOUT 875
MB...WHICH IS NEAR 2200 FT TO 2300 FT...BUT LEFT THIS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW AS THE NEXT FORECAST MAY HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
633 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED BROAD RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR OF THE COUNTRY...CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN MOVING ACROSS WYOMING CURRENTLY WITH
CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...WHICH LED TO AN OPEN GULF BRINGING A GOOD FETCH OF
MOISTURE UP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. LOCALLY...DEWPOINTS HAD RISEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SOME AREAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
WARM THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A GOOD BATCH OF LOW LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS THAT HAS BEEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DUE TO THE STRONG FLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WHERE THE
CLOUDS HAVE EXITED TEMPERATURES ARE RECOVERING WITH MANY SITES
NOW SEEING READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS
ANALYZED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM AROUND KSNY TO
KCDR TO NEAR KRAP. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...DEWPOINTS WERE DOWN IN THE
40S AND LOW 50S. STORMS HAD BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH BY
MID AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE STORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY.
WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF NEBRASKA TODAY CAPE
VALUES HAVE RISEN WITH 2000 TO 4500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE
ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 19Z. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS ALONG THE GRADIENT OF THE
STRONGEST CAPE AS WELL AS HAS GOOD CONVERGENCE ONGOING. THE
THINKING IS THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING MOVES
CLOSER THIS EVENING AND THE LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP...STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE...THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA IMPACTING
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK DESPITE THE AMOUNT OF CAPE...SO ALTHOUGH
COULD GET A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE TO A POINT
OF DEVELOPING INTO A STORM CAPABLE OF SEVERE CONDITIONS...DON/T
THINK THERE IS A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH MOST
STORMS LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY VERTICAL AND PULSE TYPE STORMS. STORM
MOVEMENT SHOULDN/T BE TOO FAST AS MEAN FLOW ALOFT IS ABOUT
15-20KTS FROM THE WEST. AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP
OVER 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ANY STORMS. HOWEVER COULD GET A
FEW STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL OR STRONG WINDS.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH SHOULD PUSH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST AS WELL SO THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS DRY. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 12C TO 14C FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET REMAINS
IN QUESTION. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST SOME LOCATIONS
WILL PUSH 100 DEGREES...MAINLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BRING IN SOME DRIER
AIR TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD HELP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
ALLOW IT TO WARM UP A BIT MORE. HOWEVER WEAK SURFACE FLOW ISN/T
GOING TO HELP SO DIDN/T WANT TO GO QUITE THAT WARM AND WILL STICK
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
A THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO CAP THE ATMOSPHERE. A LL JET DOES DEVELOP...HOWEVER MODELS
NOSE IT FOR THE MOST PART TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. LOWS WILL BE
MILD...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM ONE...WITH GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 90S.
CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS TO THE SOUTHWEST...STILL SEEING WARM AIR
OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF VEGETATION FROM THE WET JUNE SHOULD HELP TO
INCREASE LL MOISTURE AND KEEP DEW PTS FROM TANKING DURING PEAK
HEAT. THIS ADDED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS AT OR BELOW
GUIDANCE. LATE IN THE DAY...A RIDGE RIDING DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
SE ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON IN THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERNS HOW SOON...OR IF THE CAP WILL BREAK.
GOOD INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ANY STORMS HAVING THE CHANCE TO
BECOME STRONG. HAVE INCLUDED POPS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVERNIGHT. MORE CLOUDS WITH THE WAVE WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.
NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE WESTERN RIDGE HOLD STRONG WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO WESTERN
CANADA WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING SOME TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE NORTHWEST WITH MORE
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEEK WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EVERY PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...ESPECIALLY IF IT
COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEAT. FORECAST HAS POPS IN NEARLY EVERY
PERIOD...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE A WASH OF A WEEK. STORMS
WILL BE ISOLD TO SCT AND PROGRESSIVE. AS FOR TEMPS...AS THE RIDGE
FLATTENS...HIGHS WILL COME DOWN TO THE 80S...WHILE DECENT LL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ASSUMING NO NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...VFR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS SATURDAY.
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS NERN COLO WILL LIKELY TURN
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.
NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE 03Z-06Z. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS
HAVE BEEN OVER FORECASTING CONVECTION ACROSS NEB THIS AFTN AND ARE POOR
PERFORMERS. THE NAM SHOWS SOME TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING 03Z-09Z
AFFECTING KVTN-KANW-KONL AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
335 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.
LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME CUMULUS FORMING JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH HAS
MOVED TO THE EAST AND THE SOUTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A LITTLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY TIGHT DURING THE NIGHT
TIME HOURS TONIGHT...SO WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH DURING
THE NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE NAM
AND FOR THE MOST PART THE ECMWF ARE MOSTLY DRY AND THE HRRR HAS
BASICALLY NO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GFS BRINGS IN THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND SPREADS THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER THERE COULD BE ANY
STRONG STORMS WITH THESE. THERE IS AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THAT COULD BRING IN SOME STORMS
THAT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS
WELL. WILL KEEP SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST BUT WITH THE WAVE APPROACHING THERE
COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE WEST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARMING TREND.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
PATTERN: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH VIA MULTI-AGENCY ENSEMBLE MEANS THAT A
LOW TO MODERATELY AMPLITUDE WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WILL
PREVAIL IN THE LONGWAVES FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL SAT-MON...THEN TURNING AT OR A LITTLE BELOW THAN
NORMAL TUE- THU.
ALOFT: A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW AND
SRN PLAINS FRI EVE. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. IT`S BEST SEEN
WITH DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE TOOLS. BEYOND THAT IT`S ANTICYCLONIC NW FLOW
HERE THRU SUN NIGHT...WITH THE POLAR JET CONFINED TO THE US-CAN
BORDER. UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL RESULT IN RE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE HEIGHTS
TO FALL OVER THE ERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK... DRIVING A COOL FRONT
INTO THE FCST AREA. NW FLOW WILL CONT MON-THU AND IT IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PICK OUT ANY SHORTWAVE TROFS.
SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL SUN. THEN
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION WILL SEND A COOL FRONT THRU HERE DURING THE DAY
SUN. THIS IS 6-12 HRS FASTER THAN WHEN WE LOOKED AT THIS YESTERDAY
...DEPENDENT UPON WHICH MODEL CHOSEN. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER KS MON-THU BUT WILL BE MODULATED AND/OR REINFORCED
BY TSTM ACTIVITY.
HAZARDS: THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME TSTM ACTIVITY FRI NIGHT TO
BE SEVERE. FOLLOW THE SPC OUTLOOKS FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A SLGT
RISK AND THE HWO FROM THIS OFFICE.
THERE IS OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTM OR
TWO SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
OTHER TSTM POTENTIAL EXISTS TUE-THU...BUT NO CONFIDENCE ON POTENCY
OR COVERAGE THIS FAR OUT IN A WEAK FORCING REGIME.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
FRI NIGHT: SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP LATE FRI AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT THEY WILL THREATEN AREAS N AND
W OF THE TRI-CITIES DURING THE EVENING. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01"
QPF SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OR END AS IT MOVES IN. THIS
MAY NOT BE THE END OF THE STORY. IF UPSTREAM STORMS CAN FORM A
COMMON COLD POOL AND PROPAGATE E...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO A MUCH
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH MUCAPE AVERAGING 2000 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AT LEAST 40 KTS. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF WRF-NMM AND
WRF-ARW HI-RES REFLECTIVITY SUGGEST THE IS A POSSIBILITY. WE NEED TO
MONITOR THIS TIME PERIOD FOR SEVERE TSTMS.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER ERN NEB/KS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
LLJ WILL REINTENSIFY...BUT LOW PRES THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES /AND
POSSIBLY THE TROF MOVING THRU HERE/ WILL FORCE THE LEE TROF E OF ITS
CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION. THE EFFECT WILL BE TO SHOVE THE LLJ CORE E
OF THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...REPOSITIONING THE BEST THETA-E
ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE E AS WELL.
SAT: ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS/TSTMS IN THE MORNING DEPART TO THE E.
TURNING HOT AS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FCST AREA CLIMBS INTO THE 90S.
TSTMS WILL FORM AGAIN OUT TO THE W. DO NOT ENVISION ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAKING IT HERE. STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AND
SHIFT TO N.
SUN: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. NOT SURE WE ARE HOT ENOUGH IN THE FCST.
THE COOL FRONT WILL DRAG A VERY HOT THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE FCST
AREA. 100-105F IS ON THE TABLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND S OF HWY 136.
IF THIS OCCURS THEN UPR 90S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE TRI-CITIES.
LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE SUNDAY MISERABLE WITHOUT A/C. DEWPOINTS
POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE 65-71F. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES
TO AROUND 100F OVER S-CNTRL NEB.
THE LLJ SAT NIGHT WILL ADVECT AN EML OVER THE FCST AREA. COMBINED
WITH SUBSIDENCE THIS WILL IMPOSE A FORMIDABLE CAP. SO TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS IFFY LATE AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT.
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...POSSIBLY A LEFT OVER SHWR/TSTM HERE OR
THERE. "IF" A TSTM OR TWO CAN MANAGE TO POP THRU THE CAP...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
...BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE UNDER 20 KTS.
MON: NEAR NORMAL HEAT FOR EARLY JULY...BUT NOTHING EXCESSIVE LIKE
SUN.
MON NIGHT: FOR NOW QPF FROM 00Z/12Z MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL-CLUSTERED
FOR TSTM/MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER NEB/KS. STAYED TUNED. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SOME
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. WE HAVE LOTS OF TIME FOR DETAILS TO EVOLVE.
TUE-THU: SEASONABLE TEMPS AS OF NOW...BUT MODELED TEMPS LOOK TOO
WARM FOR THE 500 MB FLOW. ENSEMBLE TEMP ANOMALIES SUGGEST TEMPS WILL
TREND COOLER THAN NORMAL.
WHILE EVERY LOCATION WILL NOT SEE A TSTM IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME
...THE POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. HOWEVER...
BOTH THE 12Z EC/GEM HAVE A CLEAR SIGNAL THAT A SECONDARY COOL FRONT
WILL SWEEP THRU TUE OR TUE NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...ENOUGH COOL AIR
COULD FORCE THE PREVIOUS FRONT FURTHER S RESULTING IN A DAY OR TWO
WHERE WE COULD REMOVE POPS FROM THE FCST. THIS SCENARIO ALSO
SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF TRENDING COOLER MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THERE IS AN OFF CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. IF IT OCCURS IT COULD CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO
MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL BE ON INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A MUCH HEALTHIER CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS/TOWERING CUMULUS OVER ALL
MOUNTAIN RANGES THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH WEDNESDAY. CLASSIC
THUNDERHEAD STRUCTURE ALSO APPARENT WITH THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS VERY WEAK. CLOCKWISE
STEERING FLOW ALSO QUITE APPARENT AS STORMS OVER NORTHERN NM
MOVING/PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS DRIFTING EAST AND SOUTHEAST RESPECTIVELY. WITH
WEAK STEERING WINDS BEING THE RULE...COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL HAVE TO INITIATE STORMS IN THE BASINS AND VALLEYS THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY RUN WRF MODEL MODEL INDICATING THAT A CLUSTER OF
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THIS EVENING...QUITE POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE SANTA FE AND ABQ METRO
AREAS ALONG WITH EAST MOUNTAIN AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...NAM12 BUFR DATA
INDICATING THAT THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION/CAP OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE BROKEN EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A FEW MORE
HOURS OF ADDITIONAL HEATING...GETTING EASTERN AREAS INTO THE ACT.
SIMILAR SET UP FOR FRIDAY WITH MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING STEERING
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE ELY. TOUGH PART IS GETTING STORMS
TO PROPAGATE OFF THE SMALLER MOUNTAINS RANGES SUCH AS THE SANDIAS
AND MANZANOS INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS AND BASINS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WINDS. FOURTH OF JULY ACTIVITIES IN THE NORTH VALLEY
OF ABQ MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
NAM12 INDICATING SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH STEERING FLOW TAKING STORMS SLOWLY WEST AND NORTHWEST.
VERY DRY AIRMASS AT 500MB WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER HIGH AND OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LIMITING STORM CHANCES
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WESTWARD TO THE MIDDLE RG VALLEY.
BY TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MORE
TRADITIONAL UPPER LEVEL PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL WORK UP
INTO AZ. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SEEP INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NM FOR AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BEYOND DAY SEVEN AS TO THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER HIGH AND WHETHER OR NOT THE MONSOON PLUME
WILL BE CENTERED OVER NM OR AZ.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT GRADUAL DRYING HAS TAKEN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH THE MORNING MOISTURE MIXING OUT.
DESPITE THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL DEVELOPING IN
THIS AREA AND PROVIDE WETTING RAINS...THOUGH A FEW MAY BE ON THE
DRIER SIDE. THIS AND CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY MOVING SSE ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND WSW ACROSS
SW NM. HRRR MODEL INDICATES CONVECTION WILL PERSIST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RGV. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE CAP
BREAKS PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 RUNS...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO POP GRIDS.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE ACROSS THE
DESERT SW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TURNING CLOCKWISE AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN. BY SUNDAY...THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED...BUT FAVOR THE GILA MOUNTAINS. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE
MOIST SFC AND 700MB LEVEL S TO SE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE
WESTERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL DRYING AREAWIDE THROUGH
SUNDAY AND OVERALL DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL
LOWER EACH DAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES WILL DROP AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEY AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND BECOME NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. VENT RATES AND TRANS WINDS
WILL BOTTOM OUT FRIDAY BEFORE IMPROVING THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW NM.
MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING IN THE SETUP OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. USING A BLEND CONCEPT...IT APPEARS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THE HIGH SLIGHTLY WEST...WITH A WEAK
WIND SHIFT AT THE 700 AND 500MB LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING BACK A MORE
MOIST SELY TO SLY TO NEW MEXICO. THIS CONCEPTUAL MODEL ALIGNS WITH
GFS THETA-E RIDGE POSITIONING. BY MONDAY...THE THETA-E RIDGE BECOME
VERTICAL ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER...AND SLOWLY MOVE E WHILE TURNING
CLOCKWISE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS...HIGHER HUMIDITIES...AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL SEE
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THIS PATTERN...OR DIVERGE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. CU WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER N MTS AND WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN...DEVELOPING INTO SCT SHRA AND TSTMS AFTER 1830Z. BRIEF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT POSSIBLE WITH STORMS AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE SSE ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND WSW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. USED HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH
MODEL TO HONE IN ON POTENTIAL TIMING OF STORMS NEAR TERMINAL
SITES...WITH KSAF AND KLVS MOST LIKELY IMPACTED. SIMILAR SETUP AS
YESTERDAY SHOULD YIELD LATE EVENING POTENTIAL STORM ARRIVAL FOR
KABQ AND KAEG. WILL MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND AMEND IF STORMS
DEVELOP CLOSER TO TERMINAL SITES EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTING AT REDUCED VSBYS NEAR KTCC AROUND 09Z...BUT LACK
OF EXPECTED STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA TO INDUCE CATEGORICAL CHANGES
PRECLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP EYE ON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 59 91 62 92 / 20 10 10 10
DULCE........................... 45 87 47 88 / 40 30 30 30
CUBA............................ 51 84 54 87 / 40 40 40 30
GALLUP.......................... 55 87 59 88 / 40 30 30 30
EL MORRO........................ 51 80 53 81 / 50 50 40 50
GRANTS.......................... 52 84 54 85 / 40 40 40 40
QUEMADO......................... 54 80 57 82 / 40 40 40 30
GLENWOOD........................ 51 89 54 89 / 30 20 30 30
CHAMA........................... 44 79 46 81 / 40 50 40 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 81 63 83 / 40 50 40 40
PECOS........................... 55 78 58 80 / 40 40 40 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 50 79 52 80 / 40 40 40 40
RED RIVER....................... 45 70 46 73 / 50 60 40 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 40 75 42 77 / 40 50 50 40
TAOS............................ 50 82 52 84 / 40 40 30 30
MORA............................ 51 78 53 80 / 40 50 50 50
ESPANOLA........................ 55 86 59 88 / 40 30 30 30
SANTA FE........................ 58 82 62 84 / 40 30 40 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 57 86 61 89 / 30 30 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 63 87 66 90 / 30 20 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 89 69 92 / 30 10 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 62 91 65 94 / 30 10 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 65 90 68 93 / 30 10 30 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 59 91 62 93 / 30 10 30 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 64 90 68 93 / 30 10 30 20
SOCORRO......................... 67 92 69 93 / 30 10 20 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 83 58 86 / 40 30 30 30
TIJERAS......................... 57 84 61 87 / 40 30 30 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 85 55 88 / 40 30 30 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 82 58 85 / 40 30 30 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 83 62 86 / 30 20 30 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 63 85 65 87 / 20 20 20 30
RUIDOSO......................... 54 81 56 84 / 30 20 20 40
CAPULIN......................... 56 80 58 83 / 40 30 30 30
RATON........................... 56 84 58 88 / 30 30 30 30
SPRINGER........................ 55 85 57 89 / 30 30 30 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 81 55 83 / 30 40 30 40
CLAYTON......................... 62 89 65 91 / 20 20 30 30
ROY............................. 59 82 61 85 / 30 20 30 40
CONCHAS......................... 65 89 67 91 / 30 20 30 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 87 65 91 / 20 20 30 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 65 91 68 93 / 20 5 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 60 86 62 88 / 20 5 10 10
PORTALES........................ 63 89 65 91 / 20 5 10 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 88 66 91 / 20 10 20 20
ROSWELL......................... 66 91 68 94 / 10 5 10 5
PICACHO......................... 61 85 62 88 / 20 5 10 30
ELK............................. 57 80 59 83 / 20 10 10 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
121 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. CU WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER N MTS AND WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN...DEVELOPING INTO SCT SHRA AND TSTMS AFTER 1830Z. BRIEF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT POSSIBLE WITH STORMS AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE SSE ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND WSW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. USED HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH
MODEL TO HONE IN ON POTENTIAL TIMING OF STORMS NEAR TERMINAL
SITES...WITH KSAF AND KLVS MOST LIKELY IMPACTED. SIMILAR SETUP AS
YESTERDAY SHOULD YIELD LATE EVENING POTENTIAL STORM ARRIVAL FOR
KABQ AND KAEG. WILL MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND AMEND IF STORMS
DEVELOP CLOSER TO TERMINAL SITES EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTING AT REDUCED VSBYS NEAR KTCC AROUND 09Z...BUT LACK
OF EXPECTED STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA TO INDUCE CATEGORICAL CHANGES
PRECLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP EYE ON.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...349 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
FOUR CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...DAILY
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THESE STORMS
WILL GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCARS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY...BUT THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN TRUDGING DOWN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAS BEEN WELL-HANDLED BY THE HRRR THIS MORNING. BEST GUESS IS THAT
IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND
SUNRISE.
AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...IT SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE THAN WEDNESDAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS WORKED OVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND THERE IS LESS CLOUD DEBRIS TO
START OFF THE DAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PUT THE THETA-E AXIS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND THE END OF THE 06Z HRRR RUN
SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. FOR THESE
REASONS...HAVE SHIFTED POPS A BIT NORTHWESTWARD. WITH THE HIGH
CENTER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWESTWARD...BUT VERY SLOWLY. THUS...ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.
ON FRIDAY...THETA-E AXIS GENERALLY FAVORS AN AREA FROM WEST CENTRAL
NM ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND NE NM. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
HIGH WILL GENERALLY BE SQUARE ACROSS THE STATE. VERY LITTLE STEERING
FLOW EXISTS...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE GUIDED MORE BY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT NORTHWARD...WHICH
MEANS THE STEERING FLOW WILL CHANGE TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...AND PERHAPS ALMOST DUE WESTWARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STEER ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
AWAY FROM NM...THUS...WITH NO REAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD A BIT.
LOOKS LIKE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP INTO WESTERN NM ON
MONDAY...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS. THIS SHOULD SPREAD
SOMEWHAT INTO CENTRAL NM BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL BE LIMITED...IF NOT SHUT DOWN
ALTOGETHER...TUES/WED. THIS IS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE HIGH AND COMES BACK WESTWARD
OVER TEXAS.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CONVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE RGV AS OF THIS WRITING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SEEP WESTWARD TOWARDS THE ARIZONA BORDER...AND
24 HR DEW POINT CHANGES RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 DEGREES FROM KGNT WEST AND
NORTHWESTWARD.
THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH FRIDAY...WHERE HIGHEST POPS FORECAST.
DEW POINTS REMAIN FORECAST TO MIX OUT SOMEWHAT NORTHWEST AND FAR
WEST CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...AND TREND STILL ON TRACK FOR
ADDITIONAL DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS CENTRAL AND WEST FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH
THE H5 HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER ERN AZ...STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE A
SLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DRIFT...WHILE FRIDAY COULD SEE RATHER SLOW
AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN BOTH DAYS.
HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH A SLOW
CLIMB TO MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT TREND TOWARDS FAIR BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU. LATE DAY HUMIDITIES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT WON/T FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT MOST
LOCALES. HAINES FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO EVEN POOR SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL TODAY...AND FROM THE WEST CENTRAL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
FRIDAY.
FORECAST MODELS WOBBLE THE UPPER HIGH CENTER AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH FAVORS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH
CENTER MAY ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE FLOW OVER THE NRN US
WEAKENS...BUT FEATURES WHICH WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT FOR NEW MEXICO ARE
NOT DEFINED WELL ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1126 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. CU WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER N MTS AND WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN...DEVELOPING INTO SCT SHRA AND TSTMS AFTER 1830Z. BRIEF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT POSSIBLE WITH STORMS AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE SSE ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND ESE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. USED HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH
MODEL TO HONE IN ON POTENTIAL TIMING OF STORMS NEAR TERMINAL
SITES...WITH KSAF AND KLVS MOST LIKELY IMPACTED. SIMILAR SETUP AS
YESTERDAY SHOULD YIELD LATE EVENING POTENTIAL STORM ARRIVAL FOR
KABQ AND KAEG. WILL MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND AMEND IF STORMS
DEVELOP CLOSER TO TERMINAL SITES EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTING AT REDUCED VSBYS NEAR KTCC AROUND 09Z...BUT LACK
OF EXPECTED STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA TO INDUCE CATEGORICAL CHANGES
PRECLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP EYE ON.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...349 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
FOUR CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...DAILY
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THESE STORMS
WILL GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCARS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY...BUT THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN TRUDGING DOWN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAS BEEN WELL-HANDLED BY THE HRRR THIS MORNING. BEST GUESS IS THAT
IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND
SUNRISE.
AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...IT SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE THAN WEDNESDAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS WORKED OVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND THERE IS LESS CLOUD DEBRIS TO
START OFF THE DAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PUT THE THETA-E AXIS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND THE END OF THE 06Z HRRR RUN
SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. FOR THESE
REASONS...HAVE SHIFTED POPS A BIT NORTHWESTWARD. WITH THE HIGH
CENTER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWESTWARD...BUT VERY SLOWLY. THUS...ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.
ON FRIDAY...THETA-E AXIS GENERALLY FAVORS AN AREA FROM WEST CENTRAL
NM ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND NE NM. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
HIGH WILL GENERALLY BE SQUARE ACROSS THE STATE. VERY LITTLE STEERING
FLOW EXISTS...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE GUIDED MORE BY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT NORTHWARD...WHICH
MEANS THE STEERING FLOW WILL CHANGE TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...AND PERHAPS ALMOST DUE WESTWARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STEER ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
AWAY FROM NM...THUS...WITH NO REAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD A BIT.
LOOKS LIKE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP INTO WESTERN NM ON
MONDAY...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS. THIS SHOULD SPREAD
SOMEWHAT INTO CENTRAL NM BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL BE LIMITED...IF NOT SHUT DOWN
ALTOGETHER...TUES/WED. THIS IS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE HIGH AND COMES BACK WESTWARD
OVER TEXAS.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CONVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE RGV AS OF THIS WRITING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SEEP WESTWARD TOWARDS THE ARIZONA BORDER...AND
24 HR DEW POINT CHANGES RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 DEGREES FROM KGNT WEST AND
NORTHWESTWARD.
THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH FRIDAY...WHERE HIGHEST POPS FORECAST.
DEW POINTS REMAIN FORECAST TO MIX OUT SOMEWHAT NORTHWEST AND FAR
WEST CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...AND TREND STILL ON TRACK FOR
ADDITIONAL DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS CENTRAL AND WEST FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH
THE H5 HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER ERN AZ...STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE A
SLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DRIFT...WHILE FRIDAY COULD SEE RATHER SLOW
AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN BOTH DAYS.
HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH A SLOW
CLIMB TO MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT TREND TOWARDS FAIR BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU. LATE DAY HUMIDITIES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT WON/T FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT MOST
LOCALES. HAINES FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO EVEN POOR SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL TODAY...AND FROM THE WEST CENTRAL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
FRIDAY.
FORECAST MODELS WOBBLE THE UPPER HIGH CENTER AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH FAVORS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH
CENTER MAY ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE FLOW OVER THE NRN US
WEAKENS...BUT FEATURES WHICH WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT FOR NEW MEXICO ARE
NOT DEFINED WELL ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
518 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR
UNTIL 16Z EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
ISOLD -SHRA CENTRAL AND WRN NM UNTIL AROUND 15Z. UPPER HIGH CENTER
TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN AZ WITH LIGHT NLY TO NE STEERING FLOW. SCT
SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WND GUSTS TO 40KT TO BE
FOCUSED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN AFT 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...349 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
FOUR CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...DAILY
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THESE STORMS
WILL GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCARS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY...BUT THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN TRUDGING DOWN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAS BEEN WELL-HANDLED BY THE HRRR THIS MORNING. BEST GUESS IS THAT
IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND
SUNRISE.
AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...IT SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE THAN WEDNESDAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS WORKED OVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND THERE IS LESS CLOUD DEBRIS TO
START OFF THE DAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PUT THE THETA-E AXIS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND THE END OF THE 06Z HRRR RUN
SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. FOR THESE
REASONS...HAVE SHIFTED POPS A BIT NORTHWESTWARD. WITH THE HIGH
CENTER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWESTWARD...BUT VERY SLOWLY. THUS...ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.
ON FRIDAY...THETA-E AXIS GENERALLY FAVORS AN AREA FROM WEST CENTRAL
NM ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND NE NM. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
HIGH WILL GENERALLY BE SQUARE ACROSS THE STATE. VERY LITTLE STEERING
FLOW EXISTS...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE GUIDED MORE BY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT NORTHWARD...WHICH
MEANS THE STEERING FLOW WILL CHANGE TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...AND PERHAPS ALMOST DUE WESTWARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STEER ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
AWAY FROM NM...THUS...WITH NO REAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD A BIT.
LOOKS LIKE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP INTO WESTERN NM ON
MONDAY...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS. THIS SHOULD SPREAD
SOMEWHAT INTO CENTRAL NM BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL BE LIMITED...IF NOT SHUT DOWN
ALTOGETHER...TUES/WED. THIS IS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE HIGH AND COMES BACK WESTWARD
OVER TEXAS.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CONVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE RGV AS OF THIS WRITING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SEEP WESTWARD TOWARDS THE ARIZONA BORDER...AND
24 HR DEW POINT CHANGES RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 DEGREES FROM KGNT WEST AND
NORTHWESTWARD.
THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH FRIDAY...WHERE HIGHEST POPS FORECAST.
DEW POINTS REMAIN FORECAST TO MIX OUT SOMEWHAT NORTHWEST AND FAR
WEST CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...AND TREND STILL ON TRACK FOR
ADDITIONAL DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS CENTRAL AND WEST FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH
THE H5 HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER ERN AZ...STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE A
SLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DRIFT...WHILE FRIDAY COULD SEE RATHER SLOW
AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN BOTH DAYS.
HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH A SLOW
CLIMB TO MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT TREND TOWARDS FAIR BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU. LATE DAY HUMIDITIES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT WON/T FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT MOST
LOCALES. HAINES FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO EVEN POOR SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL TODAY...AND FROM THE WEST CENTRAL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
FRIDAY.
FORECAST MODELS WOBBLE THE UPPER HIGH CENTER AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH FAVORS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH
CENTER MAY ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE FLOW OVER THE NRN US
WEAKENS...BUT FEATURES WHICH WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT FOR NEW MEXICO ARE
NOT DEFINED WELL ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
349 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
FOUR CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...DAILY
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THESE STORMS
WILL GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCARS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY...BUT THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN TRUDGING DOWN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAS BEEN WELL-HANDLED BY THE HRRR THIS MORNING. BEST GUESS IS THAT
IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND
SUNRISE.
AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...IT SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE THAN WEDNESDAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS WORKED OVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND THERE IS LESS CLOUD DEBRIS TO
START OFF THE DAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PUT THE THETA-E AXIS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND THE END OF THE 06Z HRRR RUN
SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. FOR THESE
REASONS...HAVE SHIFTED POPS A BIT NORTHWESTWARD. WITH THE HIGH
CENTER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWESTWARD...BUT VERY SLOWLY. THUS...ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.
ON FRIDAY...THETA-E AXIS GENERALLY FAVORS AN AREA FROM WEST CENTRAL
NM ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND NE NM. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
HIGH WILL GENERALLY BE SQUARE ACROSS THE STATE. VERY LITTLE STEERING
FLOW EXISTS...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE GUIDED MORE BY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT NORTHWARD...WHICH
MEANS THE STEERING FLOW WILL CHANGE TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...AND PERHAPS ALMOST DUE WESTWARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STEER ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
AWAY FROM NM...THUS...WITH NO REAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD A BIT.
LOOKS LIKE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP INTO WESTERN NM ON
MONDAY...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS. THIS SHOULD SPREAD
SOMEWHAT INTO CENTRAL NM BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL BE LIMITED...IF NOT SHUT DOWN
ALTOGETHER...TUES/WED. THIS IS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE HIGH AND COMES BACK WESTWARD
OVER TEXAS.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CONVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE RGV AS OF THIS WRITING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SEEP WESTWARD TOWARDS THE ARIZONA BORDER...AND
24 HR DEW POINT CHANGES RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 DEGREES FROM KGNT WEST AND
NORTHWESTWARD.
THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH FRIDAY...WHERE HIGHEST POPS FORECAST.
DEW POINTS REMAIN FORECAST TO MIX OUT SOMEWHAT NORTHWEST AND FAR
WEST CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...AND TREND STILL ON TRACK FOR
ADDITIONAL DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS CENTRAL AND WEST FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH
THE H5 HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER ERN AZ...STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE A
SLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DRIFT...WHILE FRIDAY COULD SEE RATHER SLOW
AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN BOTH DAYS.
HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH A SLOW
CLIMB TO MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT TREND TOWARDS FAIR BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU. LATE DAY HUMIDITIES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT WON/T FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT MOST
LOCALES. HAINES FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO EVEN POOR SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL TODAY...AND FROM THE WEST CENTRAL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
FRIDAY.
FORECAST MODELS WOBBLE THE UPPER HIGH CENTER AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH FAVORS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH
CENTER MAY ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE FLOW OVER THE NRN US
WEAKENS...BUT FEATURES WHICH WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT FOR NEW MEXICO ARE
NOT DEFINED WELL ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD -TSRA/-SHARA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS ACROSS
NW...N CENTRAL AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER A
BRIEF BREAK EARLY THU MORNING...LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN TS COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTN AND INTO THE NIGHT AS A WAVE IN THE EASTERLIES
CROSSING NW MEXICO PUMPS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO NM. SCT TO
NMRS CONVECTION SHOULD FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SPOTTIER ACTIVITY FARTHER E. WET MICROBURSTS
ARE EXPECTED WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT FM STRONGER CELLS.
OTHERWISE...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SW SFC
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING. THE STRONGER DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THIS FLOW SHOULD HELP BURN OFF THE LOW CLOUDS FAIRLY
EARLY THU MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 93 61 92 62 / 20 20 20 10
DULCE........................... 85 49 88 47 / 40 40 30 30
CUBA............................ 84 54 87 54 / 50 40 40 40
GALLUP.......................... 88 57 87 56 / 50 40 30 30
EL MORRO........................ 81 53 80 54 / 50 40 50 40
GRANTS.......................... 85 55 85 55 / 50 40 40 40
QUEMADO......................... 83 56 83 57 / 40 40 40 40
GLENWOOD........................ 90 58 91 55 / 40 40 20 30
CHAMA........................... 81 46 80 46 / 60 40 50 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 81 58 82 62 / 50 40 50 40
PECOS........................... 78 56 79 58 / 50 40 40 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 79 50 79 52 / 50 40 40 40
RED RIVER....................... 72 44 73 46 / 60 50 60 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 74 43 76 43 / 60 50 50 50
TAOS............................ 83 52 83 51 / 50 40 40 30
MORA............................ 77 53 78 54 / 50 40 50 50
ESPANOLA........................ 86 57 88 58 / 40 40 30 30
SANTA FE........................ 83 57 83 61 / 50 40 30 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 86 58 87 59 / 40 30 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 87 65 88 66 / 40 30 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 88 67 90 68 / 30 30 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 90 64 91 65 / 20 30 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 89 65 90 67 / 30 30 20 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 91 62 92 61 / 20 30 20 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 90 64 92 66 / 30 30 20 30
SOCORRO......................... 91 67 94 68 / 20 30 10 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 85 57 86 61 / 50 40 30 30
TIJERAS......................... 86 58 87 61 / 50 40 30 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 82 56 83 56 / 40 40 30 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 80 56 82 58 / 40 40 30 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 82 59 84 61 / 30 30 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 83 62 85 63 / 20 20 20 20
RUIDOSO......................... 79 56 80 56 / 30 30 20 20
CAPULIN......................... 79 56 80 58 / 50 40 30 30
RATON........................... 83 55 85 58 / 40 30 30 30
SPRINGER........................ 85 56 86 57 / 20 30 30 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 79 55 83 56 / 30 30 40 30
CLAYTON......................... 85 63 90 63 / 20 30 20 30
ROY............................. 81 60 84 61 / 20 30 20 30
CONCHAS......................... 87 67 91 66 / 20 30 20 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 84 63 88 64 / 20 30 20 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 88 66 93 66 / 10 20 5 20
CLOVIS.......................... 83 62 88 61 / 10 10 5 10
PORTALES........................ 86 63 90 62 / 10 10 5 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 85 65 89 65 / 10 20 5 20
ROSWELL......................... 89 66 92 67 / 10 10 5 10
PICACHO......................... 82 61 86 61 / 10 20 5 10
ELK............................. 78 58 81 60 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
136 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS NEW YORK WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
LIKELY WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY AND
REMAIN FOR THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115 PM UPDATE... WW 389 (SVR) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CNY/NE
PA THROUGH 01Z. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND PRODUCERS IS STILL
THERE...WITH ML CAPES BLDG INTO THE 1000-1500 RANGE...AND 0-3 KM
SHEAR OF 30-40 KT. A TRANSITION...HOWEVER...MORE TWDS A HEAVY RAIN
SCENARIO IS STILL FORESEEN BY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY IN THE
EVE...AS PER PREV DISC BLO.
PREV DISC... 1030 AM UPDATE... RELATIVELY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE
TO THE SKY COVER/POP/WX GRIDS...BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE.
SAT/RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MRNG SHOWS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDS OVER
CNY/NE PA...WITH MRNG FOG/STRATUS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE. PRIND
STILL ARE THAT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL FIRE UP OVER OUR WRN/NRN ZNS EARLY
THIS AFTN (16-18Z)...WITH COVERAGE GROWING FARTHER E LATER IN THE
DAY (18-20Z AND LATER). OUR LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR OUTPUT SUPPORTS
THIS THINKING WELL.
AS FAR AS POTENTIAL SVR STORMS GO...WE FEEL THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY (MOSTLY 18-21Z)...AS STORMS INITIALLY
FORM...AND ARE ABLE TO PLUG INTO DEEP-LYRD SHEAR (0-3 KM VALUES OF
30-40 KT). STG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS REGARD.
LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVE...HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BECOME THE
GREATER CONCERN...MOSTLY OVER OUR SERN ZNS (NE PA AND THE WRN
CATSKILLS). THE MAIN PLAYERS HERE ARE A STRENGTHENING UPR-LVL JET
TO OUR N FROM LK ONT INTO ONT/QUE...A SLOW MOVING FRNTL BNDRY ACRS
WRN/CNTRL NY...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (WITH INCREASING INPUT
FROM ARTHUR BY EARLY EVE). THE LATEST BLENDED TPW/WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS ARTHUR`S MOISTURE PLUME MERGING INTO THE ALREADY
EXISTING BAND OF FAIRLY HI PWAT AIR ALG THE MID-ATL COAST...AS OF
LATE THIS MRNG. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS LARGER-
SCALE MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN SHOWING BACKING
925-850 MB FLOW...WITH DEEPER TROP MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO ERN
PA/NJ/SERN NY BY 22-02Z. MODEL TRAJS FROM THE LATEST GFS/RAP RUNS
ALSO SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF ARTHUR`S INFLUENCE LIKELY INTO ERN
PA BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME FRAME.
THE ABV DESCRIBED CONFIGURATION OF THE UPR JET CORE...LOW-LVL
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...PWAT...AND A SFC FRNT STILL MATCH THE
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR A "SWLY JET TYPE PRE" (PREDECESSOR RAIN
EVENT) WELL. AS STATED EARLIER...WE THINK THE MAIN FF THREAT IN
OUR CWA WILL BE E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...BUT SINCE THE WATCH IS
PRESENTLY UP AREA-WIDE...AND CONVECTION HAS NOT REALLY SHOWN
ITSELF JUST YET...WE`LL LEAVE THE WATCH AREA AS IS FOR THE TIME
BEING.
OTHERWISE...OUR HIGH TEMP FCST THIS AFTN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE (GENERALLY UPR 70S-MID 80S...WITH SOME UPR 80S IN THE
WYO/LACK VLYS OF NE PA).
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO NY KEEPING TS ARTHUR ON THE
COAST. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL PUSH EAST. THIS WILL PUSH SHOWERS OUT OF THE FAR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRI NGT AS
ARTHUR MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE HIGH. WITH THE CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY PEAK MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S FOR A COLD 4TH.
ON SAT THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BUT
EXTEND NORTH INTO ONTARIO PROVIDING THE OUR CWA WITH DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER FRI NGT TO SAT NGT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY BUT WARMER THAN FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF ACTIVE WEATHER THIS AFTN...MED RNG FSCT
INCORPORATED HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH LOOKED VERY GOOD. PTRN WILL
FAVOR A BROAD UPR TROF WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVG THRU...LEADING TO A
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE WITH A FNTL SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE RGN MON NGT/TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA DVLPNG ACRS THE SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WILL SPREAD
EWD THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVNG...WITH ASSCD MVFR/BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF LATER TNGT. XPCT MVFR TNGT
MANY AREAS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF BR/FG AND LOW CIGS. THE LOWER
CLDS SHUD BREAK UP/IMPRV TO A BKN LOW-END VFR DECK TMRW MRNG.
WINDS THIS AFTN LGT AND RATHER VRBL...XCPTN BEING POTNL FOR G30-40
WITH ANY TSRA. NW WINDS LATER TNGT ARND 5 KTS...INCRSNG TO 10-20
KTS ON FRI MRNG.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NGT THROUGH SUN...VFR.
MON...VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KELM.
MON NGT/TUE...MVFR PSBL IN SCT TSRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
108 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS NEW YORK WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
LIKELY WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY AND
REMAIN FOR THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT
115 PM UPDATE... WW 389 (SVR) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CNY/NE
PA THROUGH 01Z. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND PRODUCERS IS STILL
THERE...WITH ML CAPES BLDG INTO THE 1000-1500 RANGE...AND 0-3 KM
SHEAR OF 30-40 KT. A TRANSITION...HOWEVER...MORE TWDS A HEAVY RAIN
SCENARIO IS STILL FORESEEN BY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY IN THE
EVE...AS PER PREV DISC BLO.
PREV DISC... 1030 AM UPDATE... RELATIVELY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE
TO THE SKY COVER/POP/WX GRIDS...BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE.
SAT/RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MRNG SHOWS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDS OVER
CNY/NE PA...WITH MRNG FOG/STRATUS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE. PRIND
STILL ARE THAT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL FIRE UP OVER OUR WRN/NRN ZNS EARLY
THIS AFTN (16-18Z)...WITH COVERAGE GROWING FARTHER E LATER IN THE
DAY (18-20Z AND LATER). OUR LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR OUTPUT SUPPORTS
THIS THINKING WELL.
AS FAR AS POTENTIAL SVR STORMS GO...WE FEEL THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY (MOSTLY 18-21Z)...AS STORMS INITIALLY
FORM...AND ARE ABLE TO PLUG INTO DEEP-LYRD SHEAR (0-3 KM VALUES OF
30-40 KT). STG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS REGARD.
LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVE...HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BECOME THE
GREATER CONCERN...MOSTLY OVER OUR SERN ZNS (NE PA AND THE WRN
CATSKILLS). THE MAIN PLAYERS HERE ARE A STRENGTHENING UPR-LVL JET
TO OUR N FROM LK ONT INTO ONT/QUE...A SLOW MOVING FRNTL BNDRY ACRS
WRN/CNTRL NY...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (WITH INCREASING INPUT
FROM ARTHUR BY EARLY EVE). THE LATEST BLENDED TPW/WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS ARTHUR`S MOISTURE PLUME MERGING INTO THE ALREADY
EXISTING BAND OF FAIRLY HI PWAT AIR ALG THE MID-ATL COAST...AS OF
LATE THIS MRNG. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS LARGER-
SCALE MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN SHOWING BACKING
925-850 MB FLOW...WITH DEEPER TROP MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO ERN
PA/NJ/SERN NY BY 22-02Z. MODEL TRAJS FROM THE LATEST GFS/RAP RUNS
ALSO SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF ARTHUR`S INFLUENCE LIKELY INTO ERN
PA BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME FRAME.
THE ABV DESCRIBED CONFIGURATION OF THE UPR JET CORE...LOW-LVL
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...PWAT...AND A SFC FRNT STILL MATCH THE
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR A "SWLY JET TYPE PRE" (PREDECESSOR RAIN
EVENT) WELL. AS STATED EARLIER...WE THINK THE MAIN FF THREAT IN
OUR CWA WILL BE E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...BUT SINCE THE WATCH IS
PRESENTLY UP AREA-WIDE...AND CONVECTION HAS NOT REALLY SHOWN
ITSELF JUST YET...WE`LL LEAVE THE WATCH AREA AS IS FOR THE TIME
BEING.
OTHERWISE...OUR HIGH TEMP FCST THIS AFTN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE (GENERALLY UPR 70S-MID 80S...WITH SOME UPR 80S IN THE
WYO/LACK VLYS OF NE PA).
PREV DISC... 630 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. DENSE FOG AND
NO SHOWERS YET. SHOWERS IN WRN NY JUST TO THE NW OF THE CWA WILL
MOVE IN THIS MORNING AS THE INHIBITION BREAKS. FORGOT TO MENTION
BEFORE THAT SPC STILL HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY WIND THEN HAIL AND MAYBE EVEN A
TORNADO. BETTER DEEP SHEAR TODAY BUT CAPE LESS. ALSO WPC HAS US IN
A SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY ONE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHIC. THIS HAS
NOT CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY.
3 AM UPDATE...
CONTINUE TO BE IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM MONTREAL TO DETROIT. THE FRONT WILL
MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THEN STALL IN PA/NY TONIGHT. SOME SUNSHINE WILL
DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE A 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES
INTO WRN NY. THIS UL JET WILL PROVIDE LIFT WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
THE TRIGGER WILL BE AN UL TROF WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES ALSO
MOVING EAST INTO WRN NY. TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL INTENSIFY INTO
A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL HELP
FUNNEL DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF IT WHICH WILL
RUN INTO THE FRONT. THIS WILL SET OFF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH HEAVY RAIN. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP HEAVY RAIN
WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT COULD FALL IN AN HOUR.
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS CAUSED SOME AREAS TO BE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. ALL MODELS SHOWING A WIDE SWATH OF
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CWA.
CONVECTION WILL START OVER WRN NY LATE MORNING AND MOVE SE ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE AFTN. TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVE BUT AS
COLDER AIR COMES IN AND DAYTIME HEATING GETS MIXED TSTORMS WILL
END FROM NW TO SE. ALSO UL DIVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN AS THE JET
STREAK MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL END IN
THE EVE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO NOT BRING THE CWA ANY OF ITS WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO NY KEEPING TS ARTHUR ON THE
COAST. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL PUSH EAST. THIS WILL PUSH SHOWERS OUT OF THE FAR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRI NGT AS
ARTHUR MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE HIGH. WITH THE CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY PEAK MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S FOR A COLD 4TH.
ON SAT THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BUT
EXTEND NORTH INTO ONTARIO PROVIDING THE OUR CWA WITH DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER FRI NGT TO SAT NGT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY BUT WARMER THAN FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
510 AM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS/POPS AS FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FAIR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE BREAKING
DOWN AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER MODESTLY AMPLIFIED TROF MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES BY MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARMER AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THEN RETURN WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR TROF AND COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGES AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY. MONDAY WILL BE THE MARGINAL
DAY...WHICH COULD BE SALVAGED AS A DRY DAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM/HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY MIDDAY ALONG WITH MVFR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THIS EVENING, ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT SATURATED SOILS AND WEAK
MIXING WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE TODAY AROUND
5 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUN...VFR.
MON...VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1057 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS NEW YORK WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
LIKELY WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY AND
REMAIN FOR THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE... RELATIVELY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE SKY
COVER/POP/WX GRIDS...BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE.
SAT/RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MRNG SHOWS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDS OVER
CNY/NE PA...WITH MRNG FOG/STRATUS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE. PRIND
STILL ARE THAT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL FIRE UP OVER OUR WRN/NRN ZNS EARLY
THIS AFTN (16-18Z)...WITH COVERAGE GROWING FARTHER E LATER IN THE
DAY (18-20Z AND LATER). OUR LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR OUTPUT SUPPORTS
THIS THINKING WELL.
AS FAR AS POTENTIAL SVR STORMS GO...WE FEEL THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY (MOSTLY 18-21Z)...AS STORMS INITIALLY
FORM...AND ARE ABLE TO PLUG INTO DEEP-LYRD SHEAR (0-3 KM VALUES OF
30-40 KT). STG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS REGARD.
LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVE...HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BECOME THE
GREATER CONCERN...MOSTLY OVER OUR SERN ZNS (NE PA AND THE WRN
CATSKILLS). THE MAIN PLAYERS HERE ARE A STRENGTHENING UPR-LVL JET
TO OUR N FROM LK ONT INTO ONT/QUE...A SLOW MOVING FRNTL BNDRY ACRS
WRN/CNTRL NY...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (WITH INCREASING INPUT
FROM ARTHUR BY EARLY EVE). THE LATEST BLENDED TPW/WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS ARTHUR`S MOISTURE PLUME MERGING INTO THE ALREADY
EXISTING BAND OF FAIRLY HI PWAT AIR ALG THE MID-ATL COAST...AS OF
LATE THIS MRNG. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS LARGER-
SCALE MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN SHOWING BACKING
925-850 MB FLOW...WITH DEEPER TROP MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO ERN
PA/NJ/SERN NY BY 22-02Z. MODEL TRAJS FROM THE LATEST GFS/RAP RUNS
ALSO SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF ARTHUR`S INFLUENCE LIKELY INTO ERN
PA BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME FRAME.
THE ABV DESCRIBED CONFIGURATION OF THE UPR JET CORE...LOW-LVL
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...PWAT...AND A SFC FRNT STILL MATCH THE
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR A "SWLY JET TYPE PRE" (PREDECESSOR RAIN
EVENT) WELL. AS STATED EARLIER...WE THINK THE MAIN FF THREAT IN
OUR CWA WILL BE E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...BUT SINCE THE WATCH IS
PRESENTLY UP AREA-WIDE...AND CONVECTION HAS NOT REALLY SHOWN
ITSELF JUST YET...WE`LL LEAVE THE WATCH AREA AS IS FOR THE TIME
BEING.
OTHERWISE...OUR HIGH TEMP FCST THIS AFTN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE (GENERALLY UPR 70S-MID 80S...WITH SOME UPR 80S IN THE
WYO/LACK VLYS OF NE PA).
PREV DISC... 630 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. DENSE FOG AND
NO SHOWERS YET. SHOWERS IN WRN NY JUST TO THE NW OF THE CWA WILL
MOVE IN THIS MORNING AS THE INHIBITION BREAKS. FORGOT TO MENTION
BEFORE THAT SPC STILL HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY WIND THEN HAIL AND MAYBE EVEN A
TORNADO. BETTER DEEP SHEAR TODAY BUT CAPE LESS. ALSO WPC HAS US IN
A SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY ONE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHIC. THIS HAS
NOT CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY.
3 AM UPDATE...
CONTINUE TO BE IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM MONTREAL TO DETROIT. THE FRONT WILL
MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THEN STALL IN PA/NY TONIGHT. SOME SUNSHINE WILL
DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE A 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES
INTO WRN NY. THIS UL JET WILL PROVIDE LIFT WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
THE TRIGGER WILL BE AN UL TROF WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES ALSO
MOVING EAST INTO WRN NY. TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL INTENSIFY INTO
A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL HELP
FUNNEL DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF IT WHICH WILL
RUN INTO THE FRONT. THIS WILL SET OFF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH HEAVY RAIN. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP HEAVY RAIN
WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT COULD FALL IN AN HOUR.
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS CAUSED SOME AREAS TO BE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. ALL MODELS SHOWING A WIDE SWATH OF
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CWA.
CONVECTION WILL START OVER WRN NY LATE MORNING AND MOVE SE ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE AFTN. TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVE BUT AS
COLDER AIR COMES IN AND DAYTIME HEATING GETS MIXED TSTORMS WILL
END FROM NW TO SE. ALSO UL DIVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN AS THE JET
STREAK MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL END IN
THE EVE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO NOT BRING THE CWA ANY OF ITS WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO NY KEEPING TS ARTHUR ON THE
COAST. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL PUSH EAST. THIS WILL PUSH SHOWERS OUT OF THE FAR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRI NGT AS
ARTHUR MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE HIGH. WITH THE CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY PEAK MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S FOR A COLD 4TH.
ON SAT THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BUT
EXTEND NORTH INTO ONTARIO PROVIDING THE OUR CWA WITH DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER FRI NGT TO SAT NGT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY BUT WARMER THAN FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
510 AM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS/POPS AS FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FAIR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE BREAKING
DOWN AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER MODESTLY AMPLIFIED TROF MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES BY MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARMER AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THEN RETURN WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR TROF AND COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGES AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY. MONDAY WILL BE THE MARGINAL
DAY...WHICH COULD BE SALVAGED AS A DRY DAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM/HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY MIDDAY ALONG WITH MVFR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THIS EVENING, ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT SATURATED SOILS AND WEAK
MIXING WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE TODAY AROUND
5 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUN...VFR.
MON...VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HURRICAN ARTHUR WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE OUTER
BANKS FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...
CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN HURRICANE ARTHUR WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NC COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND AN
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR
THE NC MOUNTAINS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS ABOUT THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF ARTHUR.
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT STALLED JUST EAST
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A WEAK SURFACE WAVE LOCATED ON THE FRONT NEAR KHKY. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ARTHUR HAS MADE ITS ANTICIPATED NORTHEAST
TURN. LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THE BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BROKE OFF ARTHUR AFTER MIDDAY CONTINUES TO SPILL
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING PER RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS NEAR KEWN AND
KNCA.
RECEIVED MIXED SIGNALS FROM TRADITIONAL NWP AND CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS ABOUT THE PREFERRED PLACEMENT AND TRANSITION OF RAIN BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR. IN GENERAL THE HRRR AND THE NSSL ARW HAVE
HANDLED THIS SYSTEM WELL. THE GENERAL MESSAGE THEY ARE ADVERTISING
IS THAT THE RAIN DISK ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR WILL STAY EAST OF MOST
OF THE RAH CWA BUT IT WILL GRAZE ACROSS SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES
AND PARTS OF WILSON...EDGECOMBE AND PERHAPS CUMBERLAND COUNTIES.
THESE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN...GENERALLY
AROUND AN INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING MORE THAN AN INCH AND
A HALF. THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL DROP EAST AND MAY WORK INTO THE TRIAD LATER THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS BUT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED.
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
THE RAH CWA IN SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES WILL REQUIRE SOME
MONITORING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
ARTHUR REACHES CAPE HATTERAS AT AROUND 400 AM. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE TRIAD TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WITH SKIES BECOMING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON
FRIDAY. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IT
WIL BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER AND DRIER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. -BLAES &&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...AND ACCOMPANYING 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...WILL BUILD ESE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SAT...
THEN OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN. AFTERNOON SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S ON AVG...COMBINED WITH MILD TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE MIDDLE 80S...WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES. CALM AND RELATIVE CLEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF THE
LINGERING SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER NC...WITH PROJECTED LL THICKNESS
VALUES AROUND 1390 METERS...WILL SUPPORT LOWS SUN MORNING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES OR SO IN URBAN AREAS - THOUGH
SHY OF RECORDS FOR THE DATE (6TH) OF 53 DEGREES AT GSO AND 54
DEGREES AT RDU AND FAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY...IN DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE DEPARTING/ BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
TRENDING UP - BUT STILL IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE - WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM THURSDAY...
NC WILL BE IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN CANADA AND A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GOM. THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY BE HELD AT BAY TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC BENEATH THE LOWER HEIGHTS AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A PRONOUNCED LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH -
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUB-TROPICAL SURFACE RIDGING/THE BERMUDA
HIGH - OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE PERIOD WILL BE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK (TUE NIGHT-THU)...
WHEN BOTH 1) OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION TO THE NORTH/NEARER THE
SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE VA BORDER AND 2) NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE TAIL END OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC FLOW TO OUR NORTH COULD GRAZE CENTRAL NC.
THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IN THE MID
LEVELS...INVOF THE FL PENINSULA...IS A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH TO RESULT
IN EXTREME HEAT AT THE LATITUDE OF CENTRAL NC. AS SUCH...HIGHS WILL
LIKELY PEAK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR MOST. LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MULTIPLE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE
ARTHUR WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AT KFAY...KRWI AND KRDU THROUGH
AROUND 04Z. ANOTHER ARE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND THEY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AT KINT AND KGSO THIS
EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE AFTER 02Z. THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND THEN
GENERALLY IMPROVE INTO THE VFR RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
LONG TERM: IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR...FAIR WEATHER WITH NO ADVERSE AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. AN ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. -BLAES
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLAES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HURRICAN ARTHUR WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE OUTER
BANKS FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1150 AM THURSDAY...
COMPLICATED FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS CENTRAL NC REMAINS
BETWEEN HURRICANE ARTHUR WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NC
COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE
INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS
IN THE ANALYSIS NEAR GREENSBORO THAT EXTENDS NORTHEAST. IN
ADDITION...THE MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL REGION OF FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THIS
FEATURE WAS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT
MOVED THROUGH THAT REGION EARLIER TODAY. THE COMPLICATED INTERACTION
OF THESE FEATURES LEADS TI A DIFFICULT FORECAST IN RESOLVING DETAILS
ABOUT WHERE OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL SETUP AND MOVE. AHEAD OF ARTHUR IN
A REGION OF GOOD INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO
THE 87-90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND THE
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT.
LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT BAND OF
SHOWERS HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WHILE A SURGE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. HAVE RECEIVED MIXED SIGNALS FROM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
ABOUT THE PREFERRED PLACEMENT AND TRANSITION OF RAIN BANDS WITH
ARTHUR BUT THE HRRR IN GENERAL HAS HANDLED THIS SYSTEM WELL ALTHOUGH
IT FAILED TO CAPTURE THE EARLY MORNING WESTERN PIEDMONT CONVECTION.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...SHOWERS ROTATING WEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF ARTHUR WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN AND SANDHILLS REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BANDS WILL BE
LOCATED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE...A REGION
TYPICALLY NOT PREFERRED FOR SEVERE CONVECTION OR TORNADOES. ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE THE RAH
CWA IN SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES WILL REQUIRE SOME MONITORING OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST
EAST OF THE NC MOUNTAINS ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN DRIFT EAST. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL SOON BE REALIZED ACROSS CENTRAL NC. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COMPLICATED BY ONGOING OR DEVELOPING CONVECTION AS WELL. IN
GENERAL HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE IN THE 86 TO 92 RANGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. IN
BETWEEN...CONVECTION COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMALIZED ACROSS THE NORTHER
PIEDMONT AND TRIANGLE AREA. WHILE ARTHURS TRACK HAS SHIFTED WEST
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A LONGER PERIOD OF
RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. EXPECT AROUND AND INCH OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN WAYNE AND SAMPSON COUNTIES WITH AMOUNTS
DECREASING TO THE WEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF ARTHUR REACHES
CAPE HATTERAS AT AROUND 400 AM. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE
UPPER 60S IN THE TRIAD TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WITH SKIES BECOMING AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON. A COOLER AIR MASS SPREADS INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET ON FRIDAY WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IT WIL BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER AND
DRIER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...BROAD RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY FOR
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND WITH AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FORECAST BY THE GFS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE DEW POINTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY APPROACH OR...IN SOME LOCATIONS...FALL
SLIGHTLY BELOW 50F SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY
AROUND 60 SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW 50S SPRINKLED IN ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE IN THE DRIER AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
GRADUALLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND THE SURFACE PATTERN BECOMES MORE TYPICAL WITH THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH IN PLACE...MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY WEEKEND FORECAST IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...THEN AS THE MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
START TO FALL...WILL GRADUALLY INTRODUCE AND ALSO INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK. ON MONDAY...THE FORECAST WILL SHOW ONLY A VERY SMALL
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KGSB
TO KFAY NEAR ANY SEA BREEZE AS ALLUDED TO BY THE ECMWF...THEN ON
TUESDAY THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...THOUGH WITH BETTER
CHANCES RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE AREA AGAIN IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE APPROACH OF A FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST
GET CLOSE TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BASED ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA SEEM REASONABLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND...NEAR 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A STEADY RISE IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM NEAR 60 TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT THE END OF
THIS LONG-TERM PERIOD. CERTAINLY DEPENDING ON THE HIGHS AND THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD...A RETURN TO NEAR
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MULTIPLE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE
ARTHUR WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AT KFAY...KRWI AND KRDU THROUGH
AROUND 04Z. ANOTHER ARE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND THEY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AT KINT AND KGSO THIS
EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE AFTER 02Z. THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND THEN
GENERALLY IMPROVE INTO THE VFR RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
LONG TERM: IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR...FAIR WEATHER WITH NO ADVERSE AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. AN ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. -BLAES
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1150 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1150 AM THURSDAY...
COMPLICATED FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS CENTRAL NC REMAINS
BETWEEN HURRICANE ARTHUR WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NC
COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE
INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS
IN THE ANALYSIS NEAR GREENSBORO THAT EXTENDS NORTHEAST. IN
ADDITION...THE MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL REGION OF FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THIS
FEATURE WAS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT
MOVED THROUGH THAT REGION EARLIER TODAY. THE COMPLICATED INTERACTION
OF THESE FEATURES LEADS TI A DIFFICULT FORECAST IN RESOLVING DETAILS
ABOUT WHERE OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL SETUP AND MOVE. AHEAD OF ARTHUR IN
A REGION OF GOOD INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO
THE 87-90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND THE
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT.
LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT BAND OF
SHOWERS HAS WEAKEND CONSIDERABLY WHILE A SURGE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. HAVE RECEIVED MIXED SIGNALS FROM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
ABOUT THE PREFERRED PLACEMENT AND TRANSITION OF RAIN BANDS WITH
ARTHUR BUT THE HRRR IN GENERAL HAS HANDLED THIS SYSTEM WELL ALTHOUGH
IT FAILED TO CAPTURE THE EARLY MORNING WESTERN PIEDMONT CONVECTION.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...SHOWERS ROTATING WEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF ARTHUR WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN AND SANDHILLS REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BANDS WILL BE
LOCATED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE...A REGION
TYPICALLY NOT PREFERRED FOR SEVERE CONVECTION OR TORNADOES. ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE THE RAH
CWA IN SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES WILL REQUIRE SOME MONITORING OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST
EAST OF THE NC MOUNTAINS ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN DRIFT EAST. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL SOON BE REALIZED ACROSS CENTRAL NC. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COMPLICATED BY ONGOING OR DEVELOPING CONVECTION AS WELL. IN
GENERAL HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE IN THE 86 TO 92 RANGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. IN
BETWEEN...CONVECTION COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMALIZED ACROSS THE NORTHER
PIEDMONT AND TRIANGLE AREA. WHILE ARTHURS TRACK HAS SHIFTED WEST
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A LONGER PERIOD OF
RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. EXPECT AROUND AND INCH OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN WAYNE AND SAMPSON COUNTIES WITH AMOUNTS
DECREASING TO THE WEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF ARTHUR REACHES
CAPE HATTERAS AT AROUND 400 AM. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE
UPPER 60S IN THE TRIAD TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WITH SKIES BECOMING AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON. A COOLER AIR MASS SPREADS INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET ON FRIDAY WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IT WIL BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER AND
DRIER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...BROAD RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY FOR
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND WITH AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FORECAST BY THE GFS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE DEW POINTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY APPROACH OR...IN SOME LOCATIONS...FALL
SLIGHTLY BELOW 50F SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY
AROUND 60 SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW 50S SPRINKLED IN ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE IN THE DRIER AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
GRADUALLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND THE SURFACE PATTERN BECOMES MORE TYPICAL WITH THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH IN PLACE...MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY WEEKEND FORECAST IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...THEN AS THE MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
START TO FALL...WILL GRADUALLY INTRODUCE AND ALSO INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK. ON MONDAY...THE FORECAST WILL SHOW ONLY A VERY SMALL
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KGSB
TO KFAY NEAR ANY SEA BREEZE AS ALLUDED TO BY THE ECMWF...THEN ON
TUESDAY THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...THOUGH WITH BETTER
CHANCES RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE AREA AGAIN IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE APPROACH OF A FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST
GET CLOSE TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BASED ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA SEEM REASONABLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND...NEAR 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A STEADY RISE IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM NEAR 60 TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT THE END OF
THIS LONG-TERM PERIOD. CERTAINLY DEPENDING ON THE HIGHS AND THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD...A RETURN TO NEAR
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
PRETTY ACTIVE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
ARTHUR MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST WITH RAINBANDS POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
A LINE OF SHOWERS FORMED A FEW HOURS AGO BETWEEN KRDU AND KGSO AND
CONTINUES TO HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY THERE. AS SOME OF THE OUTER
BANDS OF ARTHUR ARE APPROACHING THE COAST...THIS LINE OF SHOWERS TO
THE WEST HAS BEGUN TO RETROGRADE A BIT AND IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT
KGSO WILL SEE A SHOWER IN THE VICINITY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
THAN WILL KRDU. TAFS ARE CURRENTLY SET UP TO HANDLE THE IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AT EASTERN SITES AND WILL RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z.
AS FAR AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS CONCERNED...MOST SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PLUS OR MINUS 18Z...WHEN
PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE TRIAD AND RAINBANDS FROM
ARTHUR BEGIN AFFECTING EASTERN SITES. ARTHUR WILL PICK UP SPEED
DURING THE EVENING AND MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 25 KTS IN
CONVECTION BUT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIONS...GUSTS SHOULD STAY 20 KTS OR
BELOW.
LONG TERM: ARTHUR WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NO
SIGNIFICANT THREATS TO AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LONG
TERM.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRD/WSS
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
127 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS OUR
REGION THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
EARLY FRI.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 912 PM WEDNESDAY...
00Z GSO SOUNDING A LITTLE CONCERNING THIS EVENING...DEPICTING DECENT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/EVENING (JUST SHY OF 7
DEG C/KM). LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS STILL DEPICTS A NARROW AXIS OF
MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE YADKIN RIVER VALLEY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES 2500-3000 J/KG AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.
FINALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR SUGGEST A
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS LIFTING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT DOES.
THUS...EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT OVER THE NW PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE TRIAD REGION. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MILES. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH WIND GUST NEAR 60 MPH OVER OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO PERSIST BUT SHOULD BE OF
LESS INTENSITY AS LOW LEVEL AIR MASS STABILIZES THANKS TO NOCTURNAL
COOLING. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE. -WSS
IN THE MEANTIME...TS ARTHUR WILL BE RECURVING AND PARALLELING THE
COAST...ARRIVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NC COAST THURSDAY EVENING...WHERE
IT WILL MERGE WITH THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AND ACCELERATE
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INITIAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE FRONT IN
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS
FROM TS ARTHUR SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH...WILL BE INCREASING THE INITIAL CHANCE POPS EARLY IN THE WEST
TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON...CONCURRENT WITH INTRODUCTION OF 50-60
PERCENT POPS IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT BY HEAVIER
CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN...BUT HIGHS WILL REACH 90 GIVEN ANY SUN AT
ALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MERGING WITH
ARTHUR THURSDAY NIGHT. ARTHUR WILL THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AS IT
IS PICKED UP BY THE UPPER TROF. AS SUCH...LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED EAST OF I-95 OVERNIGHT...WITH POPS IN THE
WEST TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY MORNING. BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT...INITIAL DRYING IN THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW MINS TO FALL TO
THE MID 60S...WHILE THE EAST WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WITH LINGERING PRECIP
IN THE NORTHEAST TAPERING OFF BY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST...THE WELCOME CHANGE OF AIRMASS
WILL FEATURE NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER...WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE
50S...ALLOWING MINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...AND ACCOMPANYING 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...WILL BUILD ESE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH
SAT...THEN OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SUPPORTED BY AFTERNOON SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
ON AVG...WILL HIGHLIGHT A COMFORTABLE START TO THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S. CALM AND RELATIVE CLEAR IN
THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER NC...WITH
PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1390 METERS...WILL SUPPORT LOWS
SUN MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 50S...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES OR SO IN
URBAN AREAS - LIKELY A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORDS FOR THE DATE (7TH)
OF 53 TO 54 DEGREES.
SUN WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY...IN RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING/
BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS TRENDING BACK UP -
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY...
CENTRAL NC DURING THE SUMMERTIME - HOT AND A SMATTERING OF DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. NC WILL BE IN A TRANSITION ZONE
BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES/SOUTHERN CANADA AND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND GOM. THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY BE
HELD AT BAY OVER THE OH VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH
REGIME AND LEE TROUGHING OVER THE CAROLINAS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND RELATIVELY SPARSE...WITH RELATIVE BETTER
PROBABILITIES (AROUND 30 PERCENT) TUE-WED...WHEN NWP GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE TAIL END OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC FLOW TO OUR NORTH COULD GRAZE
CENTRAL NC. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. LOWS UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE PRETTY ACTIVE AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ARTHUR MOVES UP THE
CAROLINA COAST WITH RAINBANDS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. FIRST AND FOREMOST...WATCHING A LINE OF STORMS THAT HAS
FORMED IN SOUTHERN VA WITH DEVELOPMENT BACK TOWARDS THE TRIAD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS STORMS WILL NOT AFFECT THIS AREA BUT THERE ARE
STILL MANY ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES FAVORABLE FOR SOME ACTIVITY
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME
BUT MAY HAVE TO AMEND LATER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
QUIET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS. MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOW STRATUS LATER THIS
MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AS FAR AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS CONCERNED...MOST SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PLUS OR MINUS 18Z...WHEN
PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE TRIAD AND RAINBANDS FROM
ARTHUR BEGIN AFFECTING EASTERN SITES. ARTHUR WILL PICK UP SPEED
DURING THE EVENING AND MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 25 KTS IN
CONVECTION BUT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIONS...GUSTS SHOULD STAY 20 KTS OR
BELOW.
LONG TERM: ARTHUR WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NO
SIGNIFICANT THREATS TO AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LONG
TERM.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS/MLM
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ALMOST RIGHT AFTER THE PREVIOUS UPDATE WAS SENT MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS STARTED TO DEVELOP CENTERED AROUND THE FARGO AREA...WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY FROM NEAR FOSSTON DOWN TOWARDS THE
RANSOM/SARGENT AREA. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING OVER THE
SAME AREA...AND NONE OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
IT. THE WRF SEEMS THE CLOSEST BUT HAS TOO MUCH PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN VALLEY. FROM THE SPC MESO PAGE AND WV LOOP...IT SEEMS
THAT THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WHERE THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THINK THAT THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
WEAKEN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF AND THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS SHIFT TO THE EAST. BUMPED UP POPS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
FROM THE 60-70 PERCENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY THEN BECOMING 40-50 PERCENT A BIT LATER ON. WILL PROBABLY
HAVE TO MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENT LATER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO BE CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BUT MORE
SCATTERED STORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL
RRV AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND. MODERATE INSTABILITY CONTINUES BUT
BULK SHEAR IS NOT THAT HIGH. WILL MONITOR FOR ANY STRENGTHENING OF
STORMS BUT DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALSO CONCERNED WITH SEVERE CHANCES SATURDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAP HAVING TROUBLE WITH TIMING
AND LOCATION OF CURRENT CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE MORE REALISTIC
HRRR...SO WILL USE THE LATTER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS TRANSITIONING TO A GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SATURDAY
AND BEYOND.
20 UTC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF NON-SEVERE CONVECTION.
THE FIRST IS A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AND
THE SECOND IS MUCH SMALLER ALONG THE EASTERN ND/SD BORDER. THIS
SECOND AREA OF STORMS HAS THE GREATER POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
GIVEN A WEAKENING CAP IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FORCING WITH SHORT-WAVE ALOFT SEEMS TO
BE FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH AND MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORM
INTENSIFICATION. OVERALL...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING EAST OF THE RIVER
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SATURDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN AFTERNOON ENVIRONMENT THAT IS
HIGHLY UNSTABLE (SFC CAPE RISING TO 4000 J/KG)...BUT CAPPED BY
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING PROVIDING THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
MAIN QUESTION IS IF SFC CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED
AND/OR MID-LEVELS WILL COOL ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. WILL
FOLLOW SPC THINKING IN THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD BEGIN ACROSS
CENTRAL ND AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITION INTO SOME KIND OF MCS AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN LATE SATURDAY/
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS IDEA IS COVERED WELL IN SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S) WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT INDICATING A WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...PLACING THIS REGION IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE FLATTENS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ARE HARD TO
TIME...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE A SITUATION WHERE MOST DAYS WILL HAVE
ISOLD-SCATTERED T-STORMS FOR A SHORT DURATION. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES...POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AROUND KFAR...KTVF...AND KBJI. FOR
NOW KEPT VCTS MENTION AT THOSE SITES AS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER
HIT OR MISS. WINDS SHOULD START TO COME DOWN TO BELOW 12 KTS LATER
THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH. A FEW OF THE
MODELS HAVE SOME 1 TO 5SM LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING TOWARDS MORNING.
THINK SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT THINK
THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH WIND FOR ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT AT SOME MVFR CIGS AT KBJI...SO INCLUDED THOSE BUT
HAVE EVERYONE ELSE STAYING VFR. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT AROUND TO A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
933 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH
DAKOTA AS SOME CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR GLEN ULLIN
WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. EXPECT ANY COVERAGE TO BE
ISOLATED AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. FOR TONIGHT THE
WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTATIONS ARE LOW FOR CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. HRRR MESO MODEL TRIES
TO GET A LINE OF CONVECTION GOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING BUT DIMINISHES THE CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. LOOKS
AS THOUGH MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL FOCUS MORE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY THEN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER WARM UP BY
NEXT WEEKS END.
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY LEADS TO
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY BY DAYS END INTO THE EVENING. COMPARED TO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE SITUATION LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS
SATURDAY EVENING/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING 40-50KTS OF
0-6KM SHEAR ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME CIN WILL BE
PRESENT...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
JET STREAK AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY INHIBITION. SPC
EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER MORE SOUTH TO
INCLUDE MORE OF WEST AND CENTRAL ND TO ACCOMMODATE THOSE AREAS NEAR
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL IMPULSES AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER JET.
SURFACE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE
OFF TO MY NORTHEAST MAY TRIGGER ANOTHER STORM ON SUNDAY AROUND THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE LOOKS DRY SUNDAY DAYTIME WITH A
BREEZY DRYING-OUT NORTHWEST WIND. ANOTHER EMBEDDED
WAVE...TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A MORE ROBUST WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA
ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY FOR THIS LATER
FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND 80S...BUT ALMOST DAILY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
A RETURN OF MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND AND CONTINUED INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT BEYOND THE EXTEND PERIOD...NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PTNS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KJMS TERMINAL. ISOLD TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN ND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTERLY
AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE TOWARDS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
CREATED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORAGE AT BOTH ALAMEDA DAM AND
LAKE DARLING. RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM INCREASED TO 1060 CFS ON
WEDNESDAY. RELEASES FROM LAKE DARLING DAM WILL REMAIN AROUND 2000
CFS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ON THE SOURIS
RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
908 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
AND MAINLY QUIET WEATHER. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER SOME OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ONLY LEAVING SOME NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WHERE
A FEW LITTLE SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS NEAR A WARM FRONT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
FORECAST UPDATE WILL REMOVE POPS OVER NWRN ND AS NO DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING AS THE WAVE PUSHES TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS
TOWARDS PTNS OF CTRL ND WITH WARM FRONT LOITERING IN THE
AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. FOR TONIGHT THE
WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTATIONS ARE LOW FOR CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. HRRR MESO MODEL TRIES
TO GET A LINE OF CONVECTION GOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING BUT DIMINISHES THE CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. LOOKS
AS THOUGH MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL FOCUS MORE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY THEN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER WARM UP BY
NEXT WEEKS END.
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY LEADS TO
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY BY DAYS END INTO THE EVENING. COMPARED TO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE SITUATION LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS
SATURDAY EVENING/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING 40-50KTS OF
0-6KM SHEAR ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME CIN WILL BE
PRESENT...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
JET STREAK AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY INHIBITION. SPC
EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER MORE SOUTH TO
INCLUDE MORE OF WEST AND CENTRAL ND TO ACCOMMODATE THOSE AREAS NEAR
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL IMPULSES AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER JET.
SURFACE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE
OFF TO MY NORTHEAST MAY TRIGGER ANOTHER STORM ON SUNDAY AROUND THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE LOOKS DRY SUNDAY DAYTIME WITH A
BREEZY DRYING-OUT NORTHWEST WIND. ANOTHER EMBEDDED
WAVE...TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A MORE ROBUST WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA
ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY FOR THIS LATER
FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND 80S...BUT ALMOST DAILY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
A RETURN OF MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND AND CONTINUED INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT BEYOND THE EXTEND PERIOD...NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PTNS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KJMS TERMINAL. ISOLD TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN ND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTERLY
AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE TOWARDS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
CREATED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORAGE AT BOTH ALAMEDA DAM AND
LAKE DARLING. RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM INCREASED TO 1060 CFS ON
WEDNESDAY. RELEASES FROM LAKE DARLING DAM WILL REMAIN AROUND 2000
CFS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ON THE SOURIS
RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
650 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO BE CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BUT MORE
SCATTERED STORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL
RRV AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND. MODERATE INSTABILITY CONTINUES BUT
BULK SHEAR IS NOT THAT HIGH. WILL MONITOR FOR ANY STRENGTHENING OF
STORMS BUT DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALSO CONCERNED WITH SEVERE CHANCES SATURDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAP HAVING TROUBLE WITH TIMING
AND LOCATION OF CURRENT CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE MORE REALISTIC
HRRR...SO WILL USE THE LATTER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS TRANSITIONING TO A GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SATURDAY
AND BEYOND.
20 UTC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF NON-SEVERE CONVECTION.
THE FIRST IS A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AND
THE SECOND IS MUCH SMALLER ALONG THE EASTERN ND/SD BORDER. THIS
SECOND AREA OF STORMS HAS THE GREATER POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
GIVEN A WEAKENING CAP IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FORCING WITH SHORT-WAVE ALOFT SEEMS TO
BE FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH AND MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORM
INTENSIFICATION. OVERALL...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING EAST OF THE RIVER
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SATURDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN AFTERNOON ENVIRONMENT THAT IS
HIGHLY UNSTABLE (SFC CAPE RISING TO 4000 J/KG)...BUT CAPPED BY
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING PROVIDING THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
MAIN QUESTION IS IF SFC CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED
AND/OR MID-LEVELS WILL COOL ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. WILL
FOLLOW SPC THINKING IN THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD BEGIN ACROSS
CENTRAL ND AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITION INTO SOME KIND OF MCS AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN LATE SATURDAY/
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS IDEA IS COVERED WELL IN SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S) WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT INDICATING A WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...PLACING THIS REGION IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE FLATTENS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ARE HARD TO
TIME...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE A SITUATION WHERE MOST DAYS WILL HAVE
ISOLD-SCATTERED T-STORMS FOR A SHORT DURATION. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES...POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AROUND KFAR...KTVF...AND KBJI. FOR
NOW KEPT VCTS MENTION AT THOSE SITES AS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER
HIT OR MISS. WINDS SHOULD START TO COME DOWN TO BELOW 12 KTS LATER
THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH. A FEW OF THE
MODELS HAVE SOME 1 TO 5SM LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING TOWARDS MORNING.
THINK SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT THINK
THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH WIND FOR ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT AT SOME MVFR CIGS AT KBJI...SO INCLUDED THOSE BUT
HAVE EVERYONE ELSE STAYING VFR. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT AROUND TO A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
FORECAST UPDATE WILL REMOVE POPS OVER NWRN ND AS NO DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING AS THE WAVE PUSHES TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS
TOWARDS PTNS OF CTRL ND WITH WARM FRONT LOITERING IN THE
AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. FOR TONIGHT THE
WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTATIONS ARE LOW FOR CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. HRRR MESO MODEL TRIES
TO GET A LINE OF CONVECTION GOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING BUT DIMINISHES THE CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. LOOKS
AS THOUGH MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL FOCUS MORE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY THEN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER WARM UP BY
NEXT WEEKS END.
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY LEADS TO
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY BY DAYS END INTO THE EVENING. COMPARED TO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE SITUATION LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS
SATURDAY EVENING/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING 40-50KTS OF
0-6KM SHEAR ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME CIN WILL BE
PRESENT...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
JET STREAK AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY INHIBITION. SPC
EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER MORE SOUTH TO
INCLUDE MORE OF WEST AND CENTRAL ND TO ACCOMMODATE THOSE AREAS NEAR
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL IMPULSES AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER JET.
SURFACE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE
OFF TO MY NORTHEAST MAY TRIGGER ANOTHER STORM ON SUNDAY AROUND THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE LOOKS DRY SUNDAY DAYTIME WITH A
BREEZY DRYING-OUT NORTHWEST WIND. ANOTHER EMBEDDED
WAVE...TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A MORE ROBUST WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA
ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY FOR THIS LATER
FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND 80S...BUT ALMOST DAILY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
A RETURN OF MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND AND CONTINUED INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT BEYOND THE EXTEND PERIOD...NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PTNS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KJMS TERMINAL. ISOLD TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN ND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTERLY
AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE TOWARDS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
CREATED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORAGE AT BOTH ALAMEDA DAM AND
LAKE DARLING. RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM INCREASED TO 1060 CFS ON
WEDNESDAY. RELEASES FROM LAKE DARLING DAM WILL REMAIN AROUND 2000
CFS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ON THE SOURIS
RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1015 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.AVIATION...
WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 12KTS ACROSS NORTHWEST WITH
ANOTHER INCREASE DURING THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. GUSTS 20-25KTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE CHANCE OF LATE DAY
STORMS IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS POINT.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
.AVIATION...
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS. WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 12KTS ACROSS WEST/NORTHWEST SITES. ANOTHER
ROUND OF CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS. GUSTS OF 20-25KTS.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF OUR NORTH TEXAS
COUNTIES AND THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN HIGH-RES MODELS OF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING THERE. RAP SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD QPF
SIGNALS... AND ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION... IT
APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN PHILOSOPHY FOR
THE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK THEN SOME LOW POPS NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE
FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 91 71 94 / 10 10 10 10
HOBART OK 68 93 70 97 / 10 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 93 72 96 / 20 10 10 10
GAGE OK 68 93 69 97 / 10 10 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 71 91 73 97 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 70 93 71 95 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1012 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS HAVE DISSIPATED. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...BUT HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
AVIATION...
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS. WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 12KTS ACROSS WEST/NORTHWEST SITES. ANOTHER
ROUND OF CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS. GUSTS OF 20-25KTS.
30
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF OUR NORTH TEXAS
COUNTIES AND THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN HIGH-RES MODELS OF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING THERE. RAP SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD QPF
SIGNALS... AND ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION... IT
APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN PHILOSOPHY FOR
THE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK THEN SOME LOW POPS NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE
FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 91 71 94 / 10 10 10 10
HOBART OK 68 93 70 97 / 10 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 93 72 96 / 10 10 10 10
GAGE OK 68 93 69 97 / 10 10 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 71 91 73 97 / 0 10 10 10
DURANT OK 70 93 71 95 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.AVIATION...
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS. WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 12KTS ACROSS WEST/NORTHWEST SITES. ANOTHER
ROUND OF CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS. GUSTS OF 20-25KTS.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF OUR NORTH TEXAS
COUNTIES AND THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN HIGH-RES MODELS OF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING THERE. RAP SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD QPF
SIGNALS... AND ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION... IT
APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN PHILOSOPHY FOR
THE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK THEN SOME LOW POPS NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE
FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 91 71 94 / 10 10 10 10
HOBART OK 68 93 70 97 / 10 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 93 72 96 / 20 10 10 10
GAGE OK 68 93 69 97 / 10 10 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 71 91 73 97 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 70 93 71 95 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PORTLAND OR
556 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...PRODUCING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM BEING TOO
HOT BUT PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. SOME MOISTURE FROM A WEAK
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WILL BRUSH MAINLY THE NORTH COAST AT TIMES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDS INLAND WILL BE ON THE PATCHY SIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A LITTLE MORE EXPECTED ON MONDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY INLAND...THEN COOLING
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES.
&&
.UPDATE...ISSUED A QUICK FORECAST UPDATE BASED ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS. A DECAYING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING ONSHORE INTO
WASHINGTON...BUT APPEARS TO BE CARRYING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO CLIP THE NORTH COAST. 12Z/18Z
MODEL RUNS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THIS VERY WELL. FOR
EXAMPLE...THE 12Z UW WRFGFS SHOWED NO PRECIP WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE
WA COAST AT THE PRESENT HOUR. HOWEVER RAIN HAS SPREAD ONSHORE INTO
QUILLAYUTE AND APPEARS TO BE SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE WA COAST. OF
ALL GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THE LATEST 21Z HRRR IS HANDLING THE
PROGRESSION OF RAINFALL THE BEST. THIS WOULD SPREAD LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA BY
MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER IT APPEARS ALL INLAND AREAS AND THE NORTH/CENTRAL OREGON
COAST SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF LOW CLOUDS FOR ANY 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S COAST
AND 60S INLAND BY 10 PM. WEAGLE
/PREV DISC ISSUED 200 PM FRI JUL 4 2014 BELOW/
.SHORT TERM...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON WITH JUST SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
SPREADING IN OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS OFF THE COAST.
TEMPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WERE RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE THOSE
OF YESTERDAY...SUPPORTING THAT IDEA THAT WE WILL GET CLOSE TO 80
INLAND TODAY.
WE ARE IN A PLEASANT EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH
POSITION OUT AROUND 140W TO 150W AND LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS PATTERN IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.
MARINE CLOUDS ARE A BIT BROKEN UP OFFSHORE AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
INLAND AND SOUTHWARD IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS.
MODEL TEMP GUIDANCE SHOWS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ESPECIALLY INLAND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A DECENT SYSTEM THAT WAS MOVING INSIDE 130W THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE MAIN CLOUD BAND WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRUSH OUR NORTH
COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COUPLE
OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND IT GENERALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH OF A PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INLAND THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH MOST OF THIS REMAINING OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND JUST BRUSHING THE NORTH COAST. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INLAND ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTH
FORECAST ZONES AT TIMES...AND EARLIER ADJUSTED THE FORECAST AND
CLOUDS FOR ALL OF THESE IDEAS.
THE MODELS DO INDICATE A BIT MORE OF AN ONSHORE PUSH OF SOME LOW
CLOUDS INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF OUR SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OFFSHORE...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE UPPER 580S SUGGEST
THESE MARINE CLOUDS WILL BE SHALLOW...MAINLY COME INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER...AND BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS MONDAY TO AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE MID OR UPPER
80S. TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEEK BEGINS WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE UPPER 580S
OR EVEN PERHAPS NEAR 590 DM. THERE IS NOT MUCH AMPLITUDE TO THE FLOW
ALOFT...SO WE STILL HAVE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH KEEPS SOME
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT. THERE PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MANY IF ANY
LOW CLOUDS INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS NEAR THE COAST. BEGINNING ABOUT WEDNESDAY THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWERING AS AN UPPER TROUGH SAGS
SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... INCREASING
THE ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLING THE GENERAL AIR MASS. FOR NOW HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUDS AND LOWERED TEMPS...BUT THERE IS SOME HINT THAT
AT LEAST THE NORTH COAST COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES
LATER NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING AS A OFFSHORE PACIFIC FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VF..ALTHOUGH THERE WILL SOME
LOWERING CLOUDS IN VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE NORTH COAST SAT
MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...QUITE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE NE PAC WITH THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN CALIF. N
TO NW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS RUNNING 4 TO 5 FT. NEXT ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT WINDS APPEARS TO BE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THERMAL PUSHES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. TW
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
231 PM PDT THU JUL 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED, MARINE STRATUS HELD STRONG WELL INTO
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. AS
OF 2 PM, TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S AT ROSEBURG. CAN
SEE THE STRATUS ERODING AND BECOMING MORE OF A STRATOCUMULUS DECK
TO THE NORTH IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, SO EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR
FARTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON SUCH THAT SKIES TURN OUT PARTLY SUNNY
AT LEAST FOR AWHILE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
CAPPED IN MOST AREAS AND EXPECT THIS IS HOW THEY`LL STAY. HRRR AND
THE NAM12 ARE INDICATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING, PERHAPS
IN NORTHERN WASHOE, NORTHWEST HUMBOLDT OR SOUTHERN HARNEY COUNTY,
BUT SHOULD STAY OUT OF OUR PUBLIC ZONES.
WE`LL HAVE TO DEAL WITH ANOTHER MARINE PUSH TONIGHT, BUT THE
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOWER AND LIKELY WON`T EXTEND
AS FAR INLAND AS LAST NIGHT.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE EAST OF THE
CASCADES. IT`LL ALSO MIX DOWN SIGNFICANTLY DRY AIR. WINDS COMBINED
WITH LOW AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS RESULTED IN THE
ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SEE RFWMFR AND THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR THE SPECIFICS.
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR
HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EAST SIDE AREAS WILL GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S. A
STRONG RIDGE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT BASIN AND THIS WILL ALLOW
HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODEL 850 TEMPS REACH APPROXIMATELY 23-25C MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TO MANY
AREAS.
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WEST OF THE CASCADES
INTO MIDWEEK, BUT IT WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE CASCADES AND EASTWARD BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE
TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH, WHILE SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY INCREASES ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AT THIS POINT, IT`S STILL
EARLY TO SAY WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE WHERE AND WHEN THE BEST CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. BUT, AS IT STANDS, WE HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SPILDE
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 03/18Z TAFS...
MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY...WITH MOST
AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN NOT CLEARING OUT
UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN TO THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT...BUT INLAND SPREAD SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS THIS
MORNING. -BPN
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED THURSDAY 3 JULY 300 PM PDT...
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY AS A
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION AND WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS. THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES INLAND. STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING
SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MODELS SHOW 700MB WINDS INCREASING BETWEEN 25 AND
30 KTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEY SHOW
THE WINDS WEAKENING SOME LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT STILL
REMAINING ELEVATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS NEAR 600 MB ARE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND SOME OF THOSE STRONGER WINDS COULD MIX DOWN
NEAR THE SURFACE. AT THE SAME TIME, VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF INDEPENDENCE DAY FROM THE SHASTA VALLEY
AND UPPER KLAMATH BASIN EASTWARD. NEW STARTS FROM RECENT LIGHTNING
AND FIREWORKS WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE WE`LL REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR
PARTS OF FIRE ZONES 624, 625, 284 AND 285. AT THIS TIME WERE NOT
EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS TO LAST LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND SHASTA VALLEY. A HEAT
WAVE WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT NORTHERN CAL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
-PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ624-625.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ284-285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM
PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ356.
$$
MAS/MAP/RES/BPN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
902 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS PERSIST NEAR YAMSAY MOUNTAIN OR
ABOUT 15 MILES SW OF SILVER LAKE OREGON. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER
STORM IN THE SOUTH END OF THE SHASTA VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA NEAR
WEED AND MT SHASTA BUT THIS ONE IS WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. SHORT
TERM HRRR MODEL HAS DONE AN EXCELLENT JOB AT PINPOINTING THE
LOCATION AND FORECAST ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARNER
VALLEY OF EASTERN LAKE COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO
TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES.
THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WITH OUR FORECAST AREA
FINALLY BECOMING THUNDERSTORM FREE ON THURSDAY AS THE INSTABILITY
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. /FB
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 03/00Z TAFS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINE FROM THE MARBLE MTNS OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEAST WARD INTO KLAMATH AND NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES
AROUND 2200 PDT THEN DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS NEAR AND WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, AS WELL AS
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THIS EVENING...MARINE STRATUS WILL FORM AGAIN
ALONG THE COAST RESULTING IN MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE
VFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION AFTER 6Z. /FB
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED WEDNESDAY 2 JULY 300 PM PDT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND
WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. THESE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
THE THERMAL TROUGH INLAND. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH BY
TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONGER THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. /RS
&&
.FIRE WEATHERE...WE PICKED UP AROUND 600 STRIKES ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM THE SCOTT
VALLEY OF NORTHERN CALIIFORNIA NE INTO THE TULELAKE BASIN..BEFORE
REFORMING FROM THE YAMSAY MTN INTO SILVER LAKE AND THE CHRISTMAS
VALLEY. NOT AS CERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE RAIN WAS BUT SOME RAWS
SITES DID PICK UP MORE THAN THE CWR. SHORT TERM MODEL REDEVELOP
MORE CONVECTION AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ZONE 625 FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITIES SHIFTS EAST INTO BURNS BLM LAND. SO FAR
THIS AREA DID NOT SEE ANY LIGHTNING THIS EVENING SO WE WILL HAVE
TO TAKE THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH. AIR MASS BECOMES MORE STABLE
THURSDAY WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. /FB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE
CASCADES NEAR CHEMULT THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOUT 25-50 CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THESE STORMS ARE
FORMING IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WITH
CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP EAST
OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES THEN GET
MORE OF A PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO MORE OF
A WESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE WAS A BIT OF A CAP IN AREAS TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS ERODING AND
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO ALSO DEVELOP FROM NEAR THE
SHASTA/TRINITY/SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO
THE GOOSENEST AREA. THESE WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST MODOC
AND SOUTHERN KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST
STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SOME HAIL. RED FLAG
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT AND CAN
BE VIEWED AT RFWMFR.
LATER TONIGHT, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE AND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST BEYOND 11 PM PDT FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LAKE COUNTY. MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT, BUT A MARINE PUSH IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL
CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING,
THEN MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE ALONG THE
NORTH COAST, SO HAVE ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST. CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE SHOULD DISSIPATE MID-LATE MORNING THURSDAY. SHOULD BE DRY
ALL AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORCING AND AXIS OF INSTABILITY
EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TOUCH LOWER,
BUT OVERALL WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S READINGS.
MAINLY DRY, VERY WARM WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BREEZES, THOUGH BREEZES MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GUSTY OVER THE EAST
SIDE AND IN MODOC COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE ROGUE VALLEY AND
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 NEAR KLAMATH FALLS.
MODEL 850 TEMPS GET BACK INTO THE MID 20S CELSIUS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HOT WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND EVEN LOWER 100S AGAIN
FOR MEDFORD. INSTABILITY BEGINS TO SHOW UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA, BUT HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY DUE TO LACK OF TRIGGER. SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY PICKS UP BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT MIDWEEK. SPILDE
AVIATION...BASED ON THE 02/18Z TAFS...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS WELL AS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MAINLY IN
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES EAST OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR AND WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL NORTH OF MOUNT SHASTA,
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR AT TIMES. THIS
EVENING...MARINE STRATUS WILL FORM AGAIN ALONG THE COAST RESULTING
IN MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE VFR CIGS WILL BE THE
PREDOMINATE CONDITION AFTER 6Z. -PETRUCELLI
MARINE...UPDATED WEDNESDAY 2 JULY 300 AM PDT...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE WEST TODAY LEADING TO
INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
THE THERMAL TROUGH INLAND. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH BY
TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONGER THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
CAZ280>282-284-285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
$$
FJB/MAS/FJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
203 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE INTERACTION OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL SUPPORT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE STATE. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
NOT BE IMPACTED BY ARTHUR AS IT TRACKS FAR ENOUGH OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL BRING A VERY COMFORTABLE AND DRY 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SEVERE THREAT WANING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY THIS EVENING...AS
BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES. HOWEVER...THIS REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN A
PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS FROM THE RAP NEAR
4KM SUGGEST ANY REMAINING TSRA COULD BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY. EVENING VISIBLE IMAGERY IMPLIES A
MUCH MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...WHERE JUST A
FEW FLAT CU NOTED AT 00Z. FOR THIS PORTION OF CENTRAL PA...A DRY
NIGHT APPEARS IN STORE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE WARREN CO.
STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY LIES ALONG THE LK ERIE SHORE AND WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE ABOUT TO LIFT NE INTO THE GRT LKS FROM NW
OHIO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCT CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF THIS
BNDRY OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NR 60F OVR
THE NW MTNS...TO THE L70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. CLEARING
SKIES...A NEARLY CALM WIND AND RECENT RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS
SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FOCUS THURSDAY SHIFTS TO INTERACTION OF APPROACHING SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT AND ARTHUR...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A
MOD-HVY RAIN/PRE TYPE EVENT. CONCEPTUAL MODEL PLACES HIGHEST RISK
OF PRE/S ALONG LOW LVL THETA RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO FURTHER
WEST...CLOSER TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOCATION OF LOW LVL THETE RIDGE OVR SE PA
FAVORS THE EXTREME PORTION OF THE CWA /LANCASTER CO/ FOR POTENTIAL
PRE EVENT...WHILE ANOTHER RISK AREA COULD BE FURTHER INTO CENTRAL
PA...ALONG SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. NWP MODELS ARE OFTEN POOR WITH
THE PLACEMENT/INTENSITY OF PRE/S...BUT FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HWO ACROSS OUR SE ZONES
THURS/THU NIGHT.
MID LVL SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU THE REGION THURSDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY AFTN. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL GIVEN STRONG LG SCALE FORCING AND
AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SPC SLIGHT RISK OF
SVR EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE
COMBINATION OF MOD-HIGH CAPE AND SIGNIFICANT 0-6KM SHEAR SUPPORTS
AN ORGANIZED SVR WX THREAT. MAY BE TOO FAR NW FOR A PRE TYPE EVENT
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...BUT LEFT SOME
SHOWERS IN ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE AMOUNT OF CLDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SAT...GETTING CONCERN ABOUT HOW MUCH COOL AIR IS ADVECTED SE
ACROSS THE LAKES.
EXPECT A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY.
WENT WITH LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH ON MONDAY...THEN ALL
AREAS FOR TUE INTO WED...AS EC AND OTHER MODELS HINT AT A
WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FADE AS ANY STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD. LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE VERY NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF WARRN COUNTY. MODEL GUIDANCE
FAVOR IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/ST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURS...HAVE MAINTAINED MORE OPTIMISTICALLY /MAINLY MVFR VISBYS/
FOR NOW GIVEN PERSISTENCE AND LOW CONFIDENCE. LATER ISSUANCE MAY
NEED TO ADJUST IF FOG/ST BECOME MORE PREVALENT.
HUMID AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THURS. POTENTIAL REDUCTIONS IN
FOG/HAZE EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS PSBL DURING THE AFTN. EXPECT TSRA TO BE
POSSIBLE 15Z TO 02Z FRIDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDS THU NIGHT WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-EARLY SUN...VFR.
LATE SUN-MON...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
631 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.AVIATION...
CURRENT CONVECTION LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE KCDS
TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR BELOW THIS EVENING AND INCREASING
TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
MID-LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
SHORT TERM...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS TO PERSIST ANOTHER DAY
ACROSS THE FA BUT MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHICH IS ENOUGH TO PUMP OUT 1500-2000 J/KG OF
SURFACE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MINIMAL TO NO CAPPING. A NORTH-
SOUTH AXIS OF WEAKLY HIGHER THETA-E/MIXING RATIO VALUES WAS
OBSERVED IN RAP FORECAST FIELDS BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME
CONVECTION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT AND THERE IS STILL LITTLE TO NO FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. BASES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS IN THE LOWER 90S. RISING
HEIGHTS...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AND LESS MOISTURE WILL
ACT TO QUELL ANY LOW LEVEL EFFECTS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
A REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR SATURDAY
MORNING BUT SOME STRATUS MAY TRY TO EDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY
GIVING LESS CHANCES OF MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION REACHING THE FA.
HOWEVER A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER TOMORROW EVENING.
LONG TERM...
OTHER THAN THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF SOME STORMS TOMORROW EVENING...
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. BEST POPS
APPEAR TO STAY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SO KEPT BARELY SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. PAST THAT...RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED WEST TO NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WHICH KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHTS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT THROUGH THE FORECAST
WHICH MEANS TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DECENT MOISTURE LEVELS
REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 700
HPA WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP TOO
MUCH.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 89 64 92 67 / 10 10 20 0 10
TULIA 64 89 65 93 68 / 10 10 10 0 10
PLAINVIEW 66 89 66 92 68 / 10 0 10 0 0
LEVELLAND 67 91 67 92 69 / 10 0 10 0 0
LUBBOCK 68 91 67 93 69 / 10 0 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 66 92 67 92 69 / 0 0 10 0 0
BROWNFIELD 67 92 67 92 70 / 10 0 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 69 93 71 96 73 / 20 10 10 0 10
SPUR 69 92 68 95 70 / 20 0 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 71 93 71 97 73 / 20 0 10 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
152 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
.AVIATION...
BOUNDARY FROM AROUND CLL TO UTS TO BPT LOOKS TO HAVE GONE QUASI-
STATIONARY WHILE STORMS THAT FORM NEAR THE BOUNDARY SAG VERY
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT SMALL CLUSTER NE OF K6R3
ARE THE MAIN PLAYERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT CANT RULE OUT MORE
DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE REGION AS OUTFLOW BECOMES MORE DOMINANT
WITH THIS PULSE ENVIRONMENT. SEA BREEZE IS FINALLY STARTING THE
MARCH INLAND AND TO THE WEST SO ANY COLLISION WITH OUTFLOW FROM
THE STORMS TO THE NORTH COULD EASILY FOCUS STORMS INTO THE HOUSTON
METRO TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VISBY THE PRIMARY THREATS. SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE
REDEVELOPS STORMS TONIGHT/EARLY FRI IN THE NORTH AND PUSHES IT
SOUTH BUT THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE DIFFICULTY/INABILITY WITH WHICH
THESE SAME HAVE CAPTURED THE MESO BOUNDARIES. AM LEANING TOWARD A
MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN COMPONENT HENCE THE STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING
BETWEEN 7-9 PM. SOME PATCHY FOG OR MIFG AGAIN TOWARD MORNING AT
THE RURAL SITES. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS STARTING A LITTLE EARLIER
TOMORROW AND PROBABLY LINED UP FROM CLL-HOU-GLS AS BOUNDARY GETS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR (UNUSUALLY SO LOOKING BACK 30 YEARS)
IN FROM MS/LA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST THIS MORNING...NUDGING DOWN
THE CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND ADJUSTING SKY
CONDITION TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. AMDAR AND MODEL SOUNDING
SUGGEST WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY JUST AS WE DID
YESTERDAY...WITH LIFTED INDICES SHOWING UP AROUND -5 AND CAPES
2000 TO 3000 J/KG ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED (RUNNING
AROUND 90F). ONLY QUESTION IS THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW VERY LITTLE WIND OR WIND SHEAR SO WE SHOULD HAVE SLOW MOVING
ORDINARY CELLS OR PULSE TYPE STORMS AND NOT SO MUCH ORGANIZED
CONVECTION LIKE CLUSTERS OR LINES. THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY
SITUATED OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THINK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND THAT WITH SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK THUNDERSTORMS OFF BEGINNING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EACH CELL WILL CREATE OUTFLOWS WHICH WILL
KILL THE ORIGINAL STORM BUT KICK OFF OTHERS. MOS GUIDANCE IS QUITE
LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 6 HOUR POPS IN MET GUIDANCE FOR IAH ONLY
8 PERCENT AND MAV ONLY 11. THINK THIS MOS GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO
LOW...AND AM FOLLOWING MORE THE SCENARIO SHOWN IN THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE MODELS LIKE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF WITH PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOW THE SCENARIO OUTLINED ABOVE WITH MORE SCATTERED TYPE CONVECTION
IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARIES. COVERAGE SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 20 TO
30 PCT SW COUNTIES TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT NORTHEAST...CLOSEST TO THE
BOUNDARY. 46
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
HEIGHTENED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
90 F ARE MET. GENERALLY WEAKENED RIDGING...WITH AMPLE COLUMN MOISTURE
.WILL PRIME THE SCENE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BEGIN FIRING
ALONG EITHER A NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OR ALONG
THE LOCAL MESOSCALE SEA/BAY BREEZES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THE DOWNSTREAM (RE)GENERATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE LIFT
PROVIDED BY SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW GUST FRONTS OUT OF PRIOR CONVECTION.
AS OF 03/09Z...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE PINEY WOODS
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA IS WHERE THE HIGH REZ SHORT TERM NWP ARE
PROGGING WHERE TODAY`S CONVECTION WILL COMMENCE. EARLY DAY MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 80S
BY LATE MORNING ...INITIATING BLOSSOMING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OF SLOW MOVEMENT PER WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL STEERING
WINDS. ANY NORTHERN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT TRAVELS INTO
EASTERN TEXAS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL ONLY PROVIDE THE SPARK
NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AND INDEPENDENCE DAY CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER THAN 1.75 INCH PWATS
WITHIN A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
INDICES THAT EXCEED CONVECTION-TRIGGERING CRITERIA...DEEP DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AXIS UP THROUGH 500 MB...ARE MORE INDICATIONS THAT MANY COUNTIES
WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF EITHER SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
.AND GUSTY WINDS FROM STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS PAST 7 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO THE MAJORITY OF THE
PYROTECHNICS SHOWS SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL UNDERGO LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED...
WITH THE DIURNAL SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 F ARE ACHIEVED. ANALOG BEHAVIOR TO THE
DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURE SINUSOIDAL CURVE...MEAN LOW-MID 90 F MAXIMUMS
TO AVERAGE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S. LESS CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND COULD PEAK AMBIENT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREAWIDE MIDDLE 90S THAT...WITH
PW`S GREATER THAN 1.3 OR 1.4 INCHES EQUATING TO NEAR 50% RH...WILL
BRIEFLY PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOWER 100S BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM.
KEEP THE UMBRELLA CLOSE OVER THE FOURTH...OBEY LIGHTNING RULES...AND
HAVE WATER NEARBY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STAY SAFE!
MARINE...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY & SEABREEZE WILL PROVIDE TRIGGERS
FOR SOME TSRA TODAY & FRI...MAINLY IN THE BAYS AND INLAND. BUT
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLUSTERS MOVING OFF
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 92 73 95 73 / 20 50 20 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 77 93 74 94 73 / 50 50 20 30 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 88 79 90 78 / 20 40 20 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...45
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1026 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST THIS MORNING...NUDGING DOWN
THE CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND ADJUSTING SKY
CONDITION TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. AMDAR AND MODEL SOUNDING
SUGGEST WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY JUST AS WE DID
YESTERDAY...WITH LIFTED INDICES SHOWING UP AROUND -5 AND CAPES
2000 TO 3000 J/KG ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED (RUNNING
AROUND 90F). ONLY QUESTION IS THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW VERY LITTLE WIND OR WIND SHEAR SO WE SHOULD HAVE SLOW MOVING
ORDINARY CELLS OR PULSE TYPE STORMS AND NOT SO MUCH ORGANIZED
CONVECTION LIKE CLUSTERS OR LINES. THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY
SITUATED OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THINK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND THAT WITH SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK THUNDERSTORMS OFF BEGINNING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EACH CELL WILL CREATE OUTFLOWS WHICH WILL
KILL THE ORIGINAL STORM BUT KICK OFF OTHERS. MOS GUIDANCE IS QUITE
LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 6 HOUR POPS IN MET GUIDANCE FOR IAH ONLY
8 PERCENT AND MAV ONLY 11. THINK THIS MOS GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO
LOW...AND AM FOLLOWING MORE THE SCENARIO SHOWN IN THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE MODELS LIKE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF WITH PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOW THE SCENARIO OUTLINED ABOVE WITH MORE SCATTERED TYPE CONVECTION
IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARIES. COVERAGE SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 20 TO
30 PCT SW COUNTIES TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT NORTHEAST...CLOSEST TO THE
BOUNDARY. 46
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
HEIGHTENED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
90 F ARE MET. GENERALLY WEAKENED RIDGING...WITH AMPLE COLUMN MOISTURE
..WILL PRIME THE SCENE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BEGIN FIRING
ALONG EITHER A NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OR ALONG
THE LOCAL MESOSCALE SEA/BAY BREEZES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THE DOWNSTREAM (RE)GENERATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE LIFT
PROVIDED BY SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW GUST FRONTS OUT OF PRIOR CONVECTION.
AS OF 03/09Z...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE PINEY WOODS
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA IS WHERE THE HIGH REZ SHORT TERM NWP ARE
PROGGING WHERE TODAY`S CONVECTION WILL COMMENCE. EARLY DAY MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 80S
BY LATE MORNING ...INITIATING BLOSSOMING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OF SLOW MOVEMENT PER WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL STEERING
WINDS. ANY NORTHERN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT TRAVELS INTO
EASTERN TEXAS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL ONLY PROVIDE THE SPARK
NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AND INDEPENDENCE DAY CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER THAN 1.75 INCH PWATS
WITHIN A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
INDICES THAT EXCEED CONVECTION-TRIGGERING CRITERIA...DEEP DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AXIS UP THROUGH 500 MB...ARE MORE INDICATIONS THAT MANY COUNTIES
WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF EITHER SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
..AND GUSTY WINDS FROM STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS PAST 7 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO THE MAJORITY OF THE
PYROTECHNICS SHOWS SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL UNDERGO LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED...
WITH THE DIURNAL SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 F ARE ACHIEVED. ANALOG BEHAVIOR TO THE
DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURE SINUSOIDAL CURVE...MEAN LOW-MID 90 F MAXIMUMS
TO AVERAGE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S. LESS CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND COULD PEAK AMBIENT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREAWIDE MIDDLE 90S THAT...WITH
PW`S GREATER THAN 1.3 OR 1.4 INCHES EQUATING TO NEAR 50% RH...WILL
BRIEFLY PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOWER 100S BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM.
KEEP THE UMBRELLA CLOSE OVER THE FOURTH...OBEY LIGHTNING RULES...AND
HAVE WATER NEARBY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STAY SAFE!
MARINE...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY & SEABREEZE WILL PROVIDE TRIGGERS
FOR SOME TSRA TODAY & FRI...MAINLY IN THE BAYS AND INLAND. BUT
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLUSTERS MOVING OFF
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 47
AVIATION...
ISOLATED PATCHES OF MVFR FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
MODEL THAT INITIALIZED CURRENT N TX TSTMS WELL (ARW) SUGGESTS
POSSIBLE OUTFLOW AND SCT CONVECTION MOVING INTO NRN PARTS OF SE TX
AFTER SUNRISE AND TO NEAR THE COAST TOWARD NOON. THEN FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INLAND DURING THE AFTN. REST OF THE MODELS
NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE MORNING BUT DO INDICATE RAPID TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A GOOD MAJORITY OF SE TX (N OF COAST/SEABREEZE)
BETWEEN 19-21Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WILL PROBABLY THROW IN SOME
TEMPOS DURING THE AFTN HOURS. PULSE SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS. CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE 7-10PM WITH LOSS OF HEATING. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 75 92 73 95 / 40 20 50 20 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 95 77 93 74 94 / 40 50 50 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 80 88 79 90 / 30 20 40 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1200 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THIS TAF PACKAGE WAS TO BACK UP
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO 16Z IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES...17Z IN THE HOUSTON METRO AREA...AND AFTER 18Z NEAR THE
COAST. THE 00Z GFE...HRRR...AND WRF-ARW MODEL RUNS ALL SUGGEST
THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL ORIGINATE FROM A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX NEAR THE DALLAS/FT WORTH METROPLEX AND DROP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. I STUCK WITH
VCSH/VCTS IN THIS TAF PACKAGE...HOWEVER SUBSEQUENT TAF UPDATES
SHOULD BEGIN TO NARROW DOWN THE TIMING AND IMPACTS AS MORE DATA
BECOMES AVAILABLE.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE STILL PROBABLE AT THE MORE RURAL
TERMINALS DURING PRE-DAWN HOURS. CIRRUS BLOWING OFF OF A LARGE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER IS COVERING THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS AND MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE PREVAILING VFR BY MID-MORNING. 44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE CLIMATE SECTION.
CLIMATE...
COLLEGE STATION HIT 95 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR THAT THE 95 DEGREE THRESHOLD HAS BEEN REACHED. THE LAST TIME
IT WAS 95 DEGREES AT KCLL WAS ON SEPT 25 2013. THE 278 DAY PERIOD
BELOW 95 DEGREES IS THE 21ST LONGEST STRETCH IN CITY HISTORY. THE
LONGEST STRETCH OF DAYS BELOW 95 DEGREES OCCURRED BETWEEN JULY 30
1975 AND JULY 31 1976...OR 368 DAYS.
THE CITY OF HOUSTON REACHED 94 DEGREES TODAY AND HAS NOT YET
REACHED 95 DEGREES SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE CITY OF HOUSTON IS
CURRENTLY AT 279 DAYS BELOW 95 DEGREES WHICH IS THE 54TH LONGEST
STREAK IN CITY HISTORY. THE LONGEST STRETCH OF DAYS BELOW 95
DEGREES WAS 725 DAYS BETWEEN AUG 12 1897 AND AUG 7 1899 (THAT
RECORD IS GOING TO LAST A WHILE). 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BUSY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS STORMS WOULD PULSE TO NEAR
SEVERE LIMITS AND THEN DROP BACK DOWN. SOME LOCATIONS PICKED UP
AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF TRINITY...SAN
JACINTO AND WALKER COUNTIES WITH SOME 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS OVER
WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY...RIGHT AT RUSH HOUR. PEA SIZE HAIL
ACCOMPANIED THE STRONGER STORMS IN HARRIS COUNTY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM TEXARKANA TO BROWNWOOD TO MIDLAND THIS
EVENING. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS EAST
TEXAS. AT 850 MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SE TX WITH
DEEPER 850 MSTR CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE HIGH. A WEAK
850 TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST. AT
700 MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SE TX...SOMEWHAT STACKED
ATOP THE 850 HIGH. MSTR WAS SPARSE AT THIS LEVEL. AT 250 MB...A
WEAK HIGH WAS OVER NE TX WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL LA ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WAS OVER WEST TEXAS.
THE RAP 13 IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING VERY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA WITH RAIN THEN
DEVELOPING IN THE HOUSTON AREA BY 16Z. THE HI-RES ARW WHICH
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL IS HOLDING MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL
18Z. THE 18Z TEXAS TECH IS COMING IN AND IT ALSO FAVORS PRECIP
DURING THE AFTN. ALL OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE WITH
RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY SO HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 50 PERCENT AND
FEEL THIS STILL MIGHT BE TOO LOW. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...
TWEAKED POPS...SKY GRIDS AND HOURLY TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT OBS.
NEW ZONES OUT BY 930 PM. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 94 75 92 73 / 10 40 20 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 95 77 93 74 / 10 50 20 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 90 80 88 79 / 10 30 20 40 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
246 AM PDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING
FURTHER EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL SPREAD LOW MARINE CLOUDS INTO THE
VALLEYS THROUGH THIS MORNING...TAKING UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO
CLEAR. AN UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...STRATUS IS STARTING TO FILL IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ABUNDANT ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM WED
CONTINUES ITS TREK FURTHER EAST OF THE CASCADES...AND THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BEGINS ITS APPROACH.
STILL ANTICIPATING A LATER BURN OFF FOR THE MARINE STRATUS THROUGHOUT
THE VALLEY...WITH INLAND STRATUS RETREATING TO THE COAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME MID-AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY REMAIN DUE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH OFFSHORE. THE MORNING CLOUDS...ONSHORE WINDS AND THE NEAR BY
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING INTO THE
80S...BUT STILL THINK THE INLAND VALLEYS WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
MODELS STILL ON TRACK SHOWING THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ANCHORED IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA OFF THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW AND PLEASANT WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING THE
GENERAL PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS/AFTERNOON SUN TO PREVAIL. BELIEVE
THE COVERAGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE A BIT LESS ON FRIDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF A LITTLE MOISTURE BRUSHING THE NORTH COAST AREAS MAINLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON ANY
LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. ITS LOOKING MORE LIKE IT WILL
BE MORE DRIZZLE THAN ACTUAL MEASURABLE PRECIP UNDER THE MARINE
STRATUS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON COASTS.
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FINAL IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NE PAC ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MAY
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUN BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON
THE TIMING AND JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE WILL SEE...BUT IT LOOKS
TO BE LIGHT AT BEST. THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST BY EARLY MON...ALLOWING SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDING TO BUILD
OVER THE PAC NW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING SOME
WARMING ALONG WITH A RETURN TO A TYPICAL PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS
GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. AN MVFR STRATUS DECK PUSHED INTO THE COAST THIS PAST
EVENING...AND IS NOW TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR THIS
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...RADIATIONAL STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
BEGINNING TO OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT. EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TWO STRATUS
DECKS TO EXPAND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS...LIKELY FILLING
MOST THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THE CIG HEIGHT LOOKS LIKELY TO BE
RIGHT AROUND 3000 FT. ESTIMATED BURN OFF FOR THE INTERIOR CLOUDS
IS BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z...AND 23Z OR LATER ALONG THE COAST. MVFR
CIGS LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE COAST LATE IN THE EVENING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT A HIGH MVFR DECK TO FORM BETWEEN 10Z
AND 11Z...WITH AN ESTIMATED BURN OFF BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. THEN
EXPECT VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MARINE CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. LIGHT NW FLOW THIS MORNING MAY PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KT
NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRES OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENING
INLAND. WITH ONLY WEAK ACTIVITY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...W-NW
SWELL SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1025 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated thunderstorms will range across the Inland Northwest
tonight as a weak weather disturbance passes through. Thursday
will be slightly cooler and locally breezy but essentially dry and
sunny. A stretch of dry and warm summer weather will envelope the
region from Friday through early next week with occasional high
clouds and the possibility of a few mountain showers and
thunderstorms during the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update to remove showers and storms west of a line from
Republic to Coulee City to Quincy. Water Vapor indicates a
midlevel dry slot has punched across the Cascades with visible
satellite indicating mostly clear skies at this hour. Still quite
a bit of convective instability ahead of this line with showers
and storms continue to fire across northern Oregon...some which
will track into southern Grant/Adams counties within the next few
hours. Some light echoes remain along an upper-level front from NE
WA to the Palouse but this is generally only dropping some
sprinkles so also removed thunder in these areas until after 11PM.
Latest HRRR and other Hi-Res models indicate the main show
overnight will be across SE WA and the lower ID Panhandle
associated with the heavier T-storm activity between Ukiah and
Bend in central Oregon. This will take some time to make its track
northward and shouldn`t be as strong as the current radar
indicates but should bring the "ripple" or convectively driven
vort max in the midlevels which will track into our already
established moist and unstable environment supporting the idea of
continued unsettled weather through the overnight periods. Brief
heavy rain and lightning strikes will be the main concern but
winds between 30-40 mph will also be possible without a strong
nocturnal inversion developing. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold front will slowly translate east through the
region. An unstable and moist air mass ahead of the front will
keep a threat for elevated showers and T-storms through early
morning. The front has passed through KEAT/KMWH so the main threat
for -tsra will be across Ern WA and Nrn ID mainly frm KPUW/KLWS to
KCOE. A few showers will brush KGEG/KSFF but the threat for -tsra
is too low to include in TAFS. The pcpn threat wanes arnd
11z then the main aviation concern for Thu will be breezy winds as
skies clear. Winds subside arnd 03z. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 63 85 56 84 60 84 / 20 10 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 62 84 53 83 55 82 / 30 20 10 0 0 10
Pullman 58 83 50 84 55 82 / 40 20 10 0 0 10
Lewiston 68 93 59 93 64 94 / 40 20 10 0 0 10
Colville 59 86 53 83 55 83 / 20 20 10 0 10 10
Sandpoint 57 82 49 81 50 80 / 30 30 10 0 10 10
Kellogg 60 82 53 83 54 80 / 40 30 10 10 10 10
Moses Lake 64 92 57 90 62 92 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 66 87 61 89 64 90 / 10 0 0 0 0 10
Omak 60 91 55 89 59 91 / 10 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
154 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
QUIET SO FAR AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SLUG OF MOISTURE
IMPINGING ON WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WITH SOME CONVECTION FARTHER
TO THE WEST. SHOULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRE
INITIALLY AROUND THE MTNS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH A FEW
POSSIBLY STRAYING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THOUGH HIGHER MOISTURE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A WEAK IMPULSE AIDING IT A BIT. AGAIN THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. TEMPERATURES QUITE
WARM FRIDAY WITH MAXS WELL INTO THE 90S OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS.
EVEN A BIT WARMER SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL TEMPS RISE IN RESPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA WITH MAXS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 100 OVER PARTS OF THE NEB PANHANDLE. WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPS SATURDAY SHOULD ALSO CAP LOWER LEVELS THUS CONVECTION SHOULD
BE MORE LIMITED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AS ADVERTISED THE SEVERAL PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS FOR SUNDAY. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SNOWY RANGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GOING TO BE ANOTHER HOT DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
NEAR 100 AT SCOTTSBLUFF AND NEAR 90 AT RAWLINS.
STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SOLUTIONS FOR POPS NEXT
WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. GFS IS SIMILAR...BUT DRY. DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH OUR
TREND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
MATCHES UP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEIGHBORS TO OUR EAST AND
NORTHEAST. GFS DOES PRODUCE FAIRLY HIGH QPF FOR THE PANHANDLE
MONDAY NIGHT...SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND WE
STAY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ON A DAILY BASIS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A CELL PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE KCYS AIRPORT AFTER 21/22Z.
CONTINUED THE VCTS WORDING AT KLAR AND KCYS. HRRR ALSO SHOWING
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THAT COULD IMPACT KCDR IF IT IS ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH. WENT WITH VCTS WORDING IN THE KCDR TAF AFTER
23Z...RUNNING THROUGH 04Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
CONCERNS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY NON-
CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. MIN HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
CLOSE TO 10 PERCENT OVER WESTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOONS. WIDELY
SCTD TSTRMS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY BUT DRY
LIGHTNING NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1100 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH IT WILL COME INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR TODAY. SFC PRESSURE FALLS ARE INCREASING ACROSS
THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF SOME MIDLEVEL ENERGY
RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE AXIS. WILL SEE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH...WHICH IN
TURN WILL ADVECT IN HIGHER LLVL MOISTURE TO THIS AREA. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP STILL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENT DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 4-7F IN THIS AREA SUGGEST CHANCES OF THIS HAPPENING
ARE RELATIVELY LOW. LOOKING AT DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY. RESULTANT SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL MOVE
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS...IN SPITE OF WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. WITH 500 -
2000 J/KG OF CAPE IN PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST RESPECTIVELY...COULD
SEE A FEW MORE VIGOROUS STORMS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST
TO THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK
THO WITH BULK SHEAR LOOKING TO BE 30 KTS OR LESS...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACTIVITY TO ACHIEVE SEVERE LEVELS. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK LLVL JET DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING SO WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW STORMS CONTINUE THRU MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOIST
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
RIDES THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB ALOFT AS WELL AS AT THE
SURFACE...WITH HIGHS LOOKING REACH THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
THE SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER WAVE
MOVES OVERHEAD...WHILE A WEAK COOL FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A
SOUTHERN RUN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF SFC AND
UPPER FORCING...ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL SPARK
OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING. COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...WITH THE ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN LOOKING TO BE VIGOROUS BUT
DISORGANIZED DUE TO LACK OF SHEAR. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER IN THE
PANHANDLE THRU THE EVENING...OTHERWISE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AS THE UPPER WAVES SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
A FETCH OF MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH CONTINUED WARMER TEMPS. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE COULD BREACH THE CENTURY MARK...WITH PERHAPS ONLY A WEAK
STORM OR TWO TO BRING RELIEF TO THE HEAT IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS LOOK TO ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
A RATHER WARM START TO THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
DOMINATING THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ON SUN. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW
H7 TEMPS BETWEEN 15-17C CONTRIBUTING TO 1000-500 MILLIBAR THICKNESS
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 582 DM. MEDIUM RANGE MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 90S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TO NEAR 100F IN THE LOW
ELEVATIONS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. LIMITING FACTORS FOR ANYTHING
REALLY HOT WILL BE NORTHEAST LLVL FLOW BEHIND A WEAK BACK-DOOR COOL
FRONT AND AFTN CUMULUS. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE CONTINUED TO STAY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS. NOT A PARTICULARLY MOIST PATTERN EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD. THIS BEGINS TO CHANGE
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEST-TO-NORTHWEST MIDLVL FLOW ON EDGE OF A
FLATTENING RIDGE. THE MODELS SHOW A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING
THE FLOW WITH ATTENDANT SHOTS OF MOISTURE VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY FROM
MON ONWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH LLVL UPSLOPE SETTING UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS WOULD PROBABLY BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST WHERE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE A BIT STRONGER...OTHERWISE H5 FLOW LESS THAN 20 KTS WILL PROBABLY
LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EPISODES. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG
STORMS NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE AND CAPES IN BETWEEN
1500 AND 2500 J/KG ADVERTISED BY THE GFS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A CELL PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE KCYS AIRPORT AFTER 21/22Z.
CONTINUED THE VCTS WORDING AT KLAR AND KCYS. HRRR ALSO SHOWING
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THAT COULD IMPACT KCDR IF IT IS ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH. WENT WITH VCTS WORDING IN THE KCDR TAF AFTER
23Z...RUNNING THROUGH 04Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH FUELS CONTINUING TO BE NON-CRITICAL. AFTERNOON MIN
RHS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED IN THIS AREA ON FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND MORESO FOR
FRIDAY OVER MUCH THE DISTRICT. WITH DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WEST...NOT MUCH PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC DOWNDRAFT WINDS IS HIGH.
FURTHER EAST...HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING
FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS HERE. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE
HOT ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR T-STORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...HAMMER
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
900 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DESERT FOR THIS EVENING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL KEEP
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AN INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY NEAR THE KERN
COUNTY LINE HAD DISSIPATED BY 02Z SATURDAY /1900 PDT THIS EVENING/.
ONE CELL BARELY MADE IT OVER THE COUNTY LINE NEAR THE JUNCTION OF
KERN...LOS ANGELES AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...WITH ONE CLOUD-TO-
GROUND STRIKE IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY AND TWO IN-CLOUD
OR CLOUD-TO-CLOUD STROKES OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THIS EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
TODAY WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED...AND RANGED FROM 104
AT THE MADERA AND VISALIA MUNICIPAL AIRPORTS TO 110 DEGREES AT
COALINGA. BOTH BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO HAD HIGHS OF 107 DEGREES.THIS
WAS THE THIRD TIME THIS YEAR THE HIGH AT MEADOWS FIELD WAS 105
DEGREES OR HIGHER...AND THE FIFTH TIME FOR FRESNO-YOSEMITE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
THE FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE GUSTY WINDS NEAR SUNFLOWER VALLEY
WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH CONTINUE...AND HOW EXTENSIVE CONVECTION
WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AT 03Z SATURDAY /2000 PDT THIS EVENING/...THE SALINAS-FRESNO SURFACE-
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS 7.0 MB...AND THE SANTA MARIA-FRESNO GRADIENT
WAS 5.9 MB. THE 02Z HRRR FORECASTS A 15-KT WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
DIABLO RANGE NEAR SUNFLOWER VALLEY THAT DIMINISHES AROUND 04Z
SATURDAY /2100 PDT THIS EVENING/. THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY...AS THE
WINDS AT SUNFLOWER VALLEY WERE STILL GUSTING TO 36 MPH AT 0327Z /2027
PDT/. HOWEVER...THE HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS EVENING/S
CONVECTION SO WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL RUN WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS WITH THE MOUNTAIN AND DESERT CONVECTION OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WAS ABUNDANT
IN-CLOUD AND CLOUD-TO-CLOUD LIGHTNING WITH THE CELLS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TODAY...AND THE CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS IS THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING GENERATED AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES
MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN OVER NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NAM-12 KEEPS 850-MB
THETA-E IN EXCESS OF 340 K OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA OVERNIGHT.
THESE CONCERNS WILL BE FURTHER EVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT CREW AFTER
THE FULL 00Z GFS AND ECMWF COME IN.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT...TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PROBABLE NEAR ANY TSRA AFTER 21Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 301 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE
WARM AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN DISTRICT. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW MONSOON MOISTURE ALREADY ARRIVING EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOW A GOOD INCREASE TOWARDS THE KERN
COUNTY DESERT. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN MUCH OF THE MOJAVE AREA HAVE
INCREASED 20-25 DEGREES OVER THE THE LAST 24 HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED
THE FORECAST BRINGING THE THREAT OF THUNDER A DAY EARLIER STARTING
SATURDAY OVER EASTERN KERN COUNTY AND HIGH SIERRA. THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT RESULTING IN A CONTINUED THREAT
OF CONVECTIVE STORM POTENTIAL INTO MID WEEK. SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER COULD PUSH INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY EACH
EVENING OVER THE WEEKEND. STORM ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW REMNANT STORM VORTEXES
MOVING THROUGH THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH OVER S PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT BRINGING A
MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF THUNDER OVER THE SIERRA SUNDAY. THE
INITIAL MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORM MAY BE DRY LIGHTNING. BUT WITH
HIGH PW TURN TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SUNDAY.
THE SIERRA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THE THREAT OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
MODELS KEEP THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT USHERING THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE SIERRA
FRIDAY.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL TEMPER TEMPERATURES. WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER AND HIGHS A BIT LOWER, YET TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE LOCKED IN AT OR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-04 112:1889 79:1955 81:2001 51:1951
KFAT 07-05 112:1991 77:1909 77:1991 52:1948
KFAT 07-06 111:2007 83:1903 78:2007 50:1955
KBFL 07-04 114:1931 82:1955 81:2001 49:1913
KBFL 07-05 114:1931 80:1961 81:1970 53:1948
KBFL 07-06 116:1913 85:1955 81:2011 52:1915
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...BEAN
PREV DISCUSSION...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...WP
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
153 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.AVIATION...
KEPT VFR VSBYS AT ALL SITES ALTHOUGH SOME REMNANT FU/HZ FROM
FIREWORKS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR BRIEFLY AT SOME OF THE
EAST COAST SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE PREVAILING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
KAPF SHOULD SEE A GULF BREEZE DEVELOP AS WELL WHICH WILL ALLOW
MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO INITIATE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
UPDATE...
EARLIER SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED...AND LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS HAVE PREVENTED ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE BROWARD/DADE/PALM BEACH COASTS THIS EVENING.
THUS...EXPECTING THE SWATH OF RAIN THROUGH INLAND PALM
BEACH/BROWARD TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS NE
OF NAPLES IS MOVING WEST TOWARDS THE COAST...BUT MAY ALSO WEAKEN
BEFORE ARRIVING TO I-75. HOWEVER...ANY OUTFLOW FROM THIS CLUSTER
MAY SPAWN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT A LITTLE LATER CONSIDERING THE
LACK OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY. REGARDLESS...POPS
WERE REDUCED TO SLT CHC IN SOME AREAS ALONG THE COASTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WIDELY DISPERSED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. IN GENERAL STORM MOTION IS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH
THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA EXPECTED TO
HAVE THE MOST COVERAGE. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW THIS TREND
AS WELL.
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THEN EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TOWARD HURRICANE
ARTHUR. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT AREA OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND EXTEND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR HAS
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES...I.E. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
MOISTURE...WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
IN GENERAL WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 77 89 78 / 40 30 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 80 90 80 / 40 20 40 20
MIAMI 90 78 90 79 / 40 20 40 20
NAPLES 91 74 91 75 / 30 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MO VALLEY ELEVATED MCS CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS MORNING DRIVEN
BY MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING. EFFECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...500-1000 J/KG AND AROUND 40KTS
RESPECTIVELY...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION AND STORMS
PUSHING SEVERE LIMITS JUST TO OUR WEST. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS
THE MCS PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH IA LATER THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLY
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS BUT PRIMARILY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HEAVY
RAINS MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT WITH RAP PWS NOW UP TO 1.8 FUELED BY
STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT. COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WITH
THE MEAN WIND AND NOT FOLLOWING UPWIND PROPAGATION
/CORFIDI/ VECTOR SUGGESTING IT WOULD BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH AT 2-3KM
WITH LESS LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE AND MORE DRIVEN BY HIGHER LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. THUS WILL ADD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MENTION THIS MORNING BUT HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT ANTICIPATED.
FORCING MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY HOWEVER SO HAVE LOWERED
POPS WEST BUT KEPT CHANCES GOING EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
DOES BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES 4-
5K J/KG...BUT SOME CINH IS APPARENT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z.
HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC WITH GFS...NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING VARIED DEGREES OF MIXING. WITH MCS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HAVE PLAYED IT MORE CONSERVATIVE AND BELOW RAP
STAYING CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE. AIRMASS WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL
THROUGH THE 60S BY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ROUGHLY ZONAL 500
MB FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTH BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE AMPLIFIED AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CARVE OUT A MODEST 500 MB TROUGH FROM
THE MIDWEST OVER TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE FIRST SUCH IMPULSE WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME STORMS TODAY AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION ABOVE...AND THESE MAY LINGER IN OUR EAST AND SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OUT. THE SECOND IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING A COOL FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...THERMAL RIDGING ALONG WITH MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE GOOD HEATING AND AN IMPRESSIVE
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND VERY
HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS...THOSE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
POTENTIALLY EDGING ABOVE 100 DEGREES MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE
DAY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD CAPPING THAT WILL
BE TOUGH TO BREAK AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED PRETTY LOW POPS...PEAKING SUNDAY EVENING AS CAPPING
WEAKENS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN.
THE COOL FRONT WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES
LOWER WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SCOOTING THROUGH. THE STRONGEST 500
MB TROUGH OF THE SERIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING STRONG FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT
OVERNIGHT AND PROBABLY YIELDING SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE ARE SOME
TIMING QUESTIONS BUT IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE PRETTY
WIDESPREAD AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A MORE WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS IOWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WAVE ALOFT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SEVERAL DAYS OF RELIEF WITH HIGHS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWER HUMIDITY. POPS WILL BE
VERY LOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
THE FAR EXTENDED IS A BIT TRICKER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BY
THURSDAY THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. 500 MB TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN CARVED
OUT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA...INITIALLY
REPLACED BY WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER IOWA WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BUILDING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. THE GFS AND THE
PREVIOUS /12Z/ RUN OF THE ECMWF HAD BEEN BUILDING THIS BIG HEAT
DOME OVER IOWA INTO NEXT WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY AND VERY HOT
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE AND IS
USING A CANADIAN 500 MB TROUGH...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE
GFS DEPICTION...TO CARVE INTO THE RIDGE AND BRING THE INFAMOUS
RING OF FIRE DOWN OVER IOWA NEXT WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS
SOLUTION...HOT AND DRY UNDER THE BIG BUBBLE...SEEMS MORE FEASIBLE
FOR NOW AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS AND FAIRLY HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS APPROPRIATE. IF THE SOLUTIONS CONVERGE THAT WAY THEN LONG RANGE
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE RAISED ABOVE CURRENT VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...05/06Z
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM ND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES ON SUN...STALLING TO THE SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT. AN AREAS OF VFR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE PERIOD WILL BE 3 TO 5 HOURS. THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN
STATUS...FOG...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOR MID WEEK IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...MS JUL 14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
351 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESS/TROUGH... FROM CTRL CANADA
TO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS... CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD WARM ADVECTION
REGIME OVER THE CWA. LATEST RUC13 85H ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE
TRANS AXIS ALIGNED FROM ERN SODAK INTO NWRN PART OF CWA. AN
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN/TRW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR RAINY RIVER/BORDERLAND
VICINITY. THIS SECOND AREA IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SO SOME 50DBZ CORES HAVE PUNCHED
ABOVE 30K WITH STRONG/SVR STORMS POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CWA AS MSTR
TRANSPORT MAXIMUM SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE INTL BORDER. ELSEWHERE
LIMITED ACTIVITY WITH WARM AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
TODAY...INITIAL MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMA AT 85H IS FCST TO SHIFT ACROSS
ARROWHEAD EARLY MORNING AS ASSOCIATED MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES
EAST. THIS 85H MSTR TRANS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO A TWIN PORTS TO
CASS LAKE AXIS BY 18Z. AS THIS IS OCCURRING DEEP LAYER WAA WILL
BEGIN TO INHIBIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER SWRN CWA. CONFIDENCE
LOWER TO THE EAST AS UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER CONVECTION
CAN REDEVELOP FROM EARLIER OUTFLOW BDRIES. WILL TREND DOWN POPS
EXCEPT NORTH AND EASTERN CWA WHERE MID LVL CAP WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE.
VERY WARM HUMID DAY AHEAD AND USED HIGHER VALUES OF GEMREGBC FOR
MAX TEMPS TODAY. DESPITE EARLY MORNING ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR EXPECT THAT ONCE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT WILL WARM UP THE LAKEFRONT.
TONIGHT...GENERAL IDEA IS THAT AN MCS/MCC WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OVER NODAK AND TRACK
INTO CWA LATE TONIGHT. HI RES MDLS HAVE BEEN HIT OR MISS WITH
RESOLVING ACTIVITY IN THIS PATTERN. USING GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WILL PUT DEVELOPMENT NEAR NODAK/NW MN BORDER AROUND
06Z...AND TRACKING ACROSS NRN/CTRL CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAYSHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SIGNALS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES REGARDING
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SYSTEM. WOULD EXPECT INCREASING THREAT OF
STRONG/SVR STORMS WITH POSSIBLE WX WATCH REQUIRED FOR SOME PARTS
OF CWA.
TOMORROW...SFC LOW IN WRN ONTARIO WILL SWING A WINDSHIFT/TROF
ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS ERN CWA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN. BEHIND WINDSHIFT SHOULD SEE SIG WARMING AS FCST 925
TEMPS REACH 23C TO 25C. THIS GIVES MAX TEMPS IN MID 80S NEAR TWIN
PORTS. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS I35 CORRIDOR TOWARDS ITASCA
COUNTY. FCST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME
ORGANIZATION WITH THREAT OF A FEW STRONG OR SVR STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE SFC COLD FRONT EXITS THE FA SUNDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING BEHIND FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR THE
EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN DRY OVERNIGHT. NW
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A PARADE OF
EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE RAIN FREE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS...ALTHOUGH
IT WEAKENS IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE POPS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF FORCING TO
INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE PRECLUDES
ANYTHING MORE THAN HIGH CHANCE POPS. ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER TROF
CROSSES NORTHERN MN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE TUESDAY
WHEN BEST FORCING ARRIVES. LOWER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE
TROF...BUT CAA WORTHY OF THE MENTION. INSTABILITY IS MISSING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILD
OVER THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
VFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BRING
LOWERING VSBYS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT VCSH IN TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CONVECTION. HAVE LLWS AT ALL SITES AS LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS 2 KFT
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 35-40 KT THROUGH SAT MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 82 65 85 60 / 30 60 60 10
INL 86 66 77 57 / 40 60 60 10
BRD 86 69 84 63 / 20 50 50 10
HYR 81 68 86 61 / 20 50 70 10
ASX 84 65 84 59 / 20 50 60 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GRANING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
412 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
ON-GOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ABOUT AS EXPECTED AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASED TO AROUND 50 KNOTS COINCIDENT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THIS
RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING IN EASTERN
COUNTIES. THE 06Z RUN OF THE RAP AND THE NAM ACTUALLY KEEP
CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THAT THE LIFT BEING
GENERATED BY THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 15Z
SUNDAY... WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS WERE
INDICATING. THE NAM PUSHES IT INTO KANSAS BY 00Z BUT THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE CLOSER TO 06Z. REGARDLESS OF EXACT TIMING...THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH VERY UNSTABLE AIR...WITH MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FACTORS AGAINST STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A CAP
AS WELL AS A LACK OF BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER WITH
LOW LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT/CONVERGENCE... A FEW STORMS
COULD REACH THE LFC AND BECOME QUITE STRONG GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO MOVE POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES.
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH POPS PLACED IN AREAS LIKELY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE TEMPERATURE/HEAT INDEX FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS COMPLICATED BY
THE FRONT AS WELL AS POTENTIAL CONVECTION. ASSUMING ANY CONVECTION
THAT WOULD DEVELOP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AND
LOOSE DEWPOINT GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT...MOST AREAS SHOULD STILL BE
ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 105 ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES IN SUNDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BY WEDNESDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVES BACK EAST... AND A SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SEE RETURN FLOW ON SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE PINNING DOWN POPS AND TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP TO OUR EAST AND THERE
ARE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SD/NE BORDER. EXPECT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE COMBINATION
OF DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING INTO THE AREA...A WEAK SHORTWAVE...AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. DID MENTION SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY...BUT TRIED TO LIMIT THE TEMPO GROUP FOR THE TSRA
TO JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT TIMING.
MENTIONED LLWS AT ALL THREE SITES AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 40KTS. MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS IN AREAS OF PRECIP AND ALSO
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1237 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 753 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE MOST RECENT
RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA TRENDS. IT APPEARS THAT IF ANY OF THE
CONVECTION THAT IS OUT IN COLORADO IS GOING TO MAKE IT INTO OUR
CWA...IT WILL MORE LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND I HAVE CUT
BACK CHANCES OF RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER
NORTH. LATER ON IN THE LATE EVENING PAST 10 PM...THE NOSE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET MAY VERY WELL BE FOCUSED TOWARD THE NORTHERN
CWA...WHERE I KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN A BIT HIGHER. OVERALL...CHANCES
OF RAIN DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT HIGH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MOST
LOCATIONS TO LET OFF FIREWORKS WITHOUT MUCH OF A HITCH...THE ONLY
CAVEAT MAY BE HOW MUCH WIND WE HAVE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE LOW-
LEVEL JET INCREASES. CONSRAW INDICATES SOME GUSTS MAY GET CLOSE TO
25 MPH. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE THE BEST INITIALIZED MODEL FOR
GAUGING WHERE RAIN MAY BE TONIGHT...AND IT POINTS MORE TO THE
SOUTH WHERE LEFTOVER CONVECTION OUT OF COLORADO WILL FINALLY MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO POSSIBLY GIVE A LITTLE RAIN BEFORE FALLING
APART. THERE COULD BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO...GIVEN MODERATE MID-
LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MODERATE SHEAR. THE WARM FRONT
APPEARS TO BE HEADING EAST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER
FORECAST...SO INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR
ROUGHLY OUR EASTERN TWO TIERS OF NEBRASKA COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND TEMPERATURES.
CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE ARE STILL
SOME AROUND. SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND HAVE BROUGHT IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS RAISING A FEW DEGREES IN
MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT LOCATIONS AND TIMING OF THE
STORMS. THE NAM HAS THEM MOVING INTO THE WEST ALREADY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS IT MORE DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE
NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE KEPT WITH
THAT AND HAVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THEN OVERNIGHT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.
THE NEXT QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHETHER ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW THAT LINGER
IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT AFTER THAT AND ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE
PLAINS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY...BEFORE A SERIES OF WEAK
FRONTS/DISTURBANCES RESULT IN HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...AND A RETURN TO A
MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALONG WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
FOR SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO EITHER THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OR TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
SURGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...WHICH COMBINED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE THE VERY
WARM AFTERNOON FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON HWO.
THEN...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
SURGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH MODEST SHEAR AND WEAK FORCING FROM
THE FRONT...COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS FIRE
UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THAT
SAID...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SPOTTY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SO
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS DEFINITELY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS POINT. THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACTUALLY APPEARS BE THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
SECONDARY FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THEREAFTER...CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDENT ON WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...AS AMPLE
INSTABILITY WILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION BACK ACROSS
THE PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM END
TO THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME ISLD/SCT PRECIP IN THE TERMINAL AREAS SO
WILL KEEP THE VCTS MENTION GOING...BUT CONFIDENCE IT OCCURRING IS
NOT HIGH. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SFC PATTERN WILL KEEP THE
SRLY WINDS IN PLACE...BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO DIMINISH DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS A SFC BOUNDARY SLIDES IN FROM THE
WEST. SKY COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN ALSO START TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1250 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
KEPT THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
AND JAMES VALLEY AREAS AS PREVIOUS UPDATE...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A WEAK TROUGH IN
THE AREA...AND SAW THAT MINOT AND WILLISTON AREAS HAD SOME LOWER
VISIBILITIES IN FOG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG INVERSION
SETTING UP WITH THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS VERY SMALL. ADDED A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH
DAKOTA AS SOME CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR GLEN ULLIN
WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. EXPECT ANY COVERAGE TO BE
ISOLATED AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. FOR TONIGHT THE
WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTATIONS ARE LOW FOR CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. HRRR MESO MODEL TRIES
TO GET A LINE OF CONVECTION GOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING BUT DIMINISHES THE CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. LOOKS
AS THOUGH MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL FOCUS MORE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY THEN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER WARM UP BY
NEXT WEEKS END.
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY LEADS TO
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY BY DAYS END INTO THE EVENING. COMPARED TO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE SITUATION LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS
SATURDAY EVENING/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING 40-50KTS OF
0-6KM SHEAR ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME CIN WILL BE
PRESENT...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
JET STREAK AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY INHIBITION. SPC
EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER MORE SOUTH TO
INCLUDE MORE OF WEST AND CENTRAL ND TO ACCOMMODATE THOSE AREAS NEAR
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL IMPULSES AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER JET.
SURFACE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE
OFF TO MY NORTHEAST MAY TRIGGER ANOTHER STORM ON SUNDAY AROUND THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE LOOKS DRY SUNDAY DAYTIME WITH A
BREEZY DRYING-OUT NORTHWEST WIND. ANOTHER EMBEDDED
WAVE...TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A MORE ROBUST WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA
ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY FOR THIS LATER
FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND 80S...BUT ALMOST DAILY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
A RETURN OF MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND AND CONTINUED INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT BEYOND THE EXTEND PERIOD...NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS/KJMS
UNTIL AROUND 10Z-12Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE ISOLD TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN ND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTERLY AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE TOWARDS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD UNTIL A COLD
FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH KISN/KDIK AROUND 01Z-02Z AND THROUGH
KMOT/KBIS AROUND 03Z-04Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
CREATED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORAGE AT BOTH ALAMEDA DAM AND
LAKE DARLING. RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM INCREASED TO 1060 CFS ON
WEDNESDAY. RELEASES FROM LAKE DARLING DAM WILL REMAIN AROUND 2000
CFS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ON THE SOURIS
RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
HYDROLOGY...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAS FINALLY MOVED EASTWARD
AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ON ITS
WAY. ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SOME 70 DEW POINTS
ARE STARTING TO POOL IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THINK THAT
WINDS WILL STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG
FORMATION...BUT WITH THAT MUCH MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON IT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ALMOST RIGHT AFTER THE PREVIOUS UPDATE WAS SENT MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS STARTED TO DEVELOP CENTERED AROUND THE FARGO AREA...WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY FROM NEAR FOSSTON DOWN TOWARDS THE
RANSOM/SARGENT AREA. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING OVER THE
SAME AREA...AND NONE OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
IT. THE WRF SEEMS THE CLOSEST BUT HAS TOO MUCH PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN VALLEY. FROM THE SPC MESO PAGE AND WV LOOP...IT SEEMS
THAT THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WHERE THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THINK THAT THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
WEAKEN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF AND THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS SHIFT TO THE EAST. BUMPED UP POPS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
FROM THE 60-70 PERCENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY THEN BECOMING 40-50 PERCENT A BIT LATER ON. WILL PROBABLY
HAVE TO MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENT LATER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO BE CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BUT MORE
SCATTERED STORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL
RRV AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND. MODERATE INSTABILITY CONTINUES BUT
BULK SHEAR IS NOT THAT HIGH. WILL MONITOR FOR ANY STRENGTHENING OF
STORMS BUT DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALSO CONCERNED WITH SEVERE CHANCES SATURDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAP HAVING TROUBLE WITH TIMING
AND LOCATION OF CURRENT CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE MORE REALISTIC
HRRR...SO WILL USE THE LATTER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS TRANSITIONING TO A GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SATURDAY
AND BEYOND.
20 UTC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF NON-SEVERE CONVECTION.
THE FIRST IS A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AND
THE SECOND IS MUCH SMALLER ALONG THE EASTERN ND/SD BORDER. THIS
SECOND AREA OF STORMS HAS THE GREATER POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
GIVEN A WEAKENING CAP IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FORCING WITH SHORT-WAVE ALOFT SEEMS TO
BE FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH AND MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORM
INTENSIFICATION. OVERALL...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING EAST OF THE RIVER
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SATURDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN AFTERNOON ENVIRONMENT THAT IS
HIGHLY UNSTABLE (SFC CAPE RISING TO 4000 J/KG)...BUT CAPPED BY
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING PROVIDING THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
MAIN QUESTION IS IF SFC CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED
AND/OR MID-LEVELS WILL COOL ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. WILL
FOLLOW SPC THINKING IN THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD BEGIN ACROSS
CENTRAL ND AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITION INTO SOME KIND OF MCS AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN LATE SATURDAY/
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS IDEA IS COVERED WELL IN SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S) WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT INDICATING A WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...PLACING THIS REGION IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE FLATTENS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ARE HARD TO
TIME...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE A SITUATION WHERE MOST DAYS WILL HAVE
ISOLD-SCATTERED T-STORMS FOR A SHORT DURATION. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES...POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS SOME CONVECTION MAKES ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE TAF SITES. SOME STORMS MAY STILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KBJI AND KFAR MAY STILL HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS...BUT
OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE THINGS SETTLE DOWN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT
FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED A MENTION AT KDVL AFTER 03Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
314 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO
NO RAIN CHANCES. WE WILL LEAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DUE
TO A LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE AXIS/BOUNDARY. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE ISOLATED...BRIEF AND WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF SURFACE HEATING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AND
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
79
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1151 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON REPRESENTS
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.
IN GENERAL...VFR CLOUDS AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULT IS SIMPLE ONE LINE
TAFS FOR ALL AREA AIRPORTS.
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT WE WILL BECOME CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES AT LEAST
WEAK CAPPING PREVENTING THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. WITH NO
DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORMS...LEFT THUNDERSTORMS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BECAUSE ANY CAPPING IN PLACE IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...WILL HAVE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO AMDAR
SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO MONITOR FOR
AFTERNOON ISOLATED CONVECTION INITIATION. EVEN IF STORMS MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...WEAK WIND SHEAR SHOULD ENSURE SHORT LIVED STORMS WITH
VERY LOCALIZED IMPACTS. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 94 74 97 75 97 / 5 10 5 5 5
WACO, TX 93 71 95 72 96 / 10 10 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 90 68 94 69 94 / 5 10 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 94 71 96 70 97 / 10 10 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 92 68 95 69 96 / 5 10 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 93 75 96 76 96 / 5 10 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 91 71 94 71 95 / 5 10 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 92 70 94 72 95 / 5 10 5 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 92 70 95 71 95 / 10 10 5 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 70 96 69 98 / 10 10 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
91/79
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1151 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON REPRESENTS
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.
IN GENERAL...VFR CLOUDS AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULT IS SIMPLE ONE LINE
TAFS FOR ALL AREA AIRPORTS.
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT WE WILL BECOME CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES AT LEAST
WEAK CAPPING PREVENTING THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. WITH NO
DISCERNABLE FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORMS...LEFT THUNDERSTORMS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BECAUSE ANY CAPPING IN PLACE IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...WILL HAVE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO AMDAR
SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO MONITOR FOR
AFTERNOON ISOLATED CONVECTION INITIATION. EVEN IF STORMS MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...WEAK WIND SHEAR SHOULD ENSURE SHORT LIVED STORMS WITH
VERY LOCALIZED IMPACTS. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WANING AND SHOULD COME TO AN END IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WE DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH 9 PM OR SO WHERE A FEW CELLS ARE
LINGERING. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 80S AFTER SUNSET.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
A BROAD UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT ANCHORED OVER NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WERE PUSHING TOWARD 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH A 850-750MB THETA-E AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THERE WAS LITTLE TO NO CAP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW SUBTLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. RELATIVELY DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WAS FILTERING INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND CU
FIELDS WERE NOT IMPRESSIVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING FROM BRECKENRIDGE TO ABILENE WITH HIGH RES MODELS
INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH SUNSET WEST
THROUGH SOUTH OF DFW AND INCLUDING THE WACO/TEMPLE AREAS. WILL
MAINTAIN EARLIER UPDATED POP LOCATION AND TIMING WITH ACTIVITY
WANING QUICKLY BEFORE MOST FIREWORKS DISPLAYS GET GOING LATE THIS
EVENING.
THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS AND STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...
HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE NEAR THE 850-750 THETA-E
RIDGE FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S
WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THIS COMING WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING AND STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR ZERO ALL WEEK.
WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR DIURNAL AND ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MID WEEK AND COULD ALSO RESULT
IN A STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AT THAT TIME.
HAVE LEFT ANY LOW RAIN CHANCES OUT AT THIS TIME WITH TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING WITH REGARD TO SUBSIDENCE AND MOISTURE DEPTH.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 95 75 96 76 / 10 5 10 5 5
WACO, TX 71 94 72 95 73 / 20 10 10 5 5
PARIS, TX 68 91 69 93 71 / 10 5 10 5 5
DENTON, TX 70 94 73 96 73 / 10 10 10 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 67 92 70 95 71 / 10 5 10 5 5
DALLAS, TX 73 93 75 95 76 / 10 5 10 5 5
TERRELL, TX 69 92 71 94 73 / 10 5 10 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 70 93 72 93 72 / 10 5 10 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 70 93 70 93 71 / 30 10 10 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 68 94 70 96 70 / 20 10 10 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1136 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOMING BREEZY/GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY MID-
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS MAKING A RUN AT KCDS POST 00Z...BUT PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE ALONG WITH EXPECTED COVERAGE REMAIN FAR TOO LOW TO
WARRANT MENTION.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
SHORT TERM...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS TO PERSIST ANOTHER DAY
ACROSS THE FA BUT MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHICH IS ENOUGH TO PUMP OUT 1500-2000 J/KG OF
SURFACE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MINIMAL TO NO CAPPING. A NORTH-
SOUTH AXIS OF WEAKLY HIGHER THETA-E/MIXING RATIO VALUES WAS
OBSERVED IN RAP FORECAST FIELDS BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME
CONVECTION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT AND THERE IS STILL LITTLE TO NO FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. BASES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS IN THE LOWER 90S. RISING
HEIGHTS...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AND LESS MOISTURE WILL
ACT TO QUELL ANY LOW LEVEL EFFECTS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
A REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR SATURDAY
MORNING BUT SOME STRATUS MAY TRY TO EDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY
GIVING LESS CHANCES OF MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION REACHING THE FA.
HOWEVER A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER TOMORROW EVENING.
LONG TERM...
OTHER THAN THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF SOME STORMS TOMORROW EVENING...
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. BEST POPS
APPEAR TO STAY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SO KEPT BARELY SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. PAST THAT...RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED WEST TO NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WHICH KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHTS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT THROUGH THE FORECAST
WHICH MEANS TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DECENT MOISTURE LEVELS
REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 700
HPA WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP TOO
MUCH.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 87 63 89 64 92 / 10 10 10 20 0
TULIA 88 64 89 65 93 / 10 10 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 87 66 89 66 92 / 10 10 0 10 0
LEVELLAND 89 67 91 67 92 / 10 10 0 10 0
LUBBOCK 90 68 91 67 93 / 10 10 0 10 0
DENVER CITY 91 66 92 67 92 / 0 0 0 10 0
BROWNFIELD 90 67 92 67 92 / 10 10 0 10 0
CHILDRESS 91 69 93 71 96 / 20 20 10 10 0
SPUR 90 69 92 68 95 / 20 20 0 10 0
ASPERMONT 92 71 93 71 97 / 20 20 0 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
725 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARTHUR WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MAINE TODAY AS A POST
TROPICAL SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND AND
BRINGS DRY PLEASANT WEATHER. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN A CHANCE OVER A BROADER AREA DURING
MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
LAST REMAINING RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LVL COLD POOL
AND MODEST LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z
/10 AM/. CLOUD SHIELD IS VERY CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND SO
AS SOON AS RAIN ENDS...CLEARING SHOULD FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND.
THEREFORE...EXPECT TREND TOWARD SKC CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE WHICH
WILL HOLD MUCH OF THE DAY. COULD SEE A BIT OF HIGH BASED DIURNAL
CU LATER ON TODAY...BUT THIS IS UNLIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD AS DRY
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW. POPS WERE BASED ON THE HRRR WITH THIS
UPDATE...AND BROUGHT TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO SPEED...OTHERWISE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER NANTUCKET AND CAPE
COD...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL BE LOWERED...CONSISTENT
WITH THE 5 AM NHC ADVISORY.
SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS EASTERN MA AND NORTHERN
RI...PRESUMABLY DUE TO A COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER TROF. THE UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES EAST OF AREA AFTER
12Z. NONETHELESS...WILL NEED TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
EASTERN ZONES AT THE START OF TODAY/S FORECAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF THUNDER.
OTHERWISE...LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO REGION BEHIND
ARTHUR...DOWN TO 48 AT EEN AT 07Z. NW WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY
WITH THE UNSTABLE PROFILE THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY...WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE AIR
MASS WILL FEEL MUCH LESS HUMID TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
ONE CONCERN FOR TODAY HAS BEEN THE RISK OF HIGH SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE RESIDUAL SWELL AFTER ARTHUR. OUR
PROCEDURE FOR CALCULATING RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY LEVEL DOES NOT GO
ABOVE MODERATE EVEN FOR THE INTUITIVELY VULNERABLE AREAS OF CAPE
ANN TO SALISBURY...THE OUTER CAPE...SOUTH BEACH AREA OF MARTHA/S
VINEYARD AND THE EAST AND SOUTH SHORES OF NANTUCKET. REALIZING
THAT THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR THE WAVEWATCH MODEL TO DECAY THE
SWELL TOO QUICKLY...HAVE MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE SWELL AND PERIODS
UP SOME BUT STILL DO NOT GET ANY HIGHER RISK THAN MODERATE. WHAT
MAY BE HAPPENING IS THAT THE TRAJECTORY AND STRUCTURE OF FAST
MOVING ARTHUR WAS SUCH THAT THE SWELL ENERGY WAS GENERALLY MOVING
SSW TO NNE AND LARGELY OPPOSED TO THE LOCAL WIND AND WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AS ARTHUR PASSED BY. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF HIGH RIP
CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HIGH SURF IS NOT AS MUCH AS ONE MIGHT
INITIALLY THINK THE DAY AFTER A TROPICAL CYCLONE PASSAGE.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL BE PREPARED TO UPDATE IF BEACH REPORTS
SUGGEST A HIGHER LEVEL OF ACTIVITY THAN THAT INDICATED BY OUR
COMPUTATIONAL SCHEME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRES DOMINATES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO
DROP INTO THE 50S TONIGHT IN ALL EXCEPT SOME OF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL AND URBAN AREAS. MODELS SUGGEST A MODEST AMOUNT OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER OR MID 80S MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW...05/00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL BE A BROAD
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS ITS CORE POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS A PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE NEXT WEEK.
FAVORED THE CONSENSUS BLEND TO TREND THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE ENOUGH MINOR DETAIL DIFFERENCES WHICH CAN BE SMOOTHED OVER
BY THIS APPROACH... WITHOUT LOSING THE OVERALL PICTURE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECTING INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ONCE MORE AS SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS RETURN. A COLD FRONT MAY
SLOWLY APPROACH OUR AREA DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PROXIMITY OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WILL
LEAD TO A GREATER RISK FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
EXACT TIMING IS NOT YET CERTAIN...BUT LEANING MORE TOWARD A TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERN FOR TUESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
SLIGHTLY TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY...THIS IS A TRICKER FORECAST...LARGELY DUE TO TIMING OF THE
FRONT WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH THROUGH MOST OF THE MID WEEK.
CAN SEE A SCENARIO WHERE THIS FRONT IS SMACK IN THE MIDDLE OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CAN ALSO SEE A SCENARIO WHERE THIS FRONT
MOVES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH WHERE A GOOD PORTION OF THIS DAY IS DRY.
05/00Z GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN 05/00Z ECMWF. THIS IS DUE
TO THE ECMWF HAVING A MORE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. AT
THIS TIME RANGE...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THESE TYPES OF
TIMING DETAILS.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
TODAY...
VFR. E COASTAL RAINS SHOULD END BY 14Z. OTHERWISE MAIN ISSUE IS
THE WINDS...WHICH WILL RANGE 310-330 MAINLY WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AT
TIMES.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
VFR CONTINUES. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THEN SHIFT
MAINLY TO THE W ON SUN. A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE ON SUN.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. RAIN SHOULD END AROUND 13Z.
WINDS PICK UP WITH SOME GUSTS 25-30 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS PICK UP WITH SOME GUSTS
25-30 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE PACE OF SUBSIDING SEAS TODAY. WILL NEED TO
MAINTAIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS ALL THE OPEN WATERS AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THE RESIDUAL SWELL FROM ARTHUR.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A STRENGTHENING SW FETCH MAY START TO RAISE SEAS
TO NEAR 5 FEET VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE OUTER SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS SEAS ON COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS REACH 25 KNOTS MONDAY...THEN
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5 TO 7
FEET ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ230>232-250-251-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DOODY/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/THOMPSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1017 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ATLANTIC RIDGE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE HAS BEEN SLOWLY
BUILDING WEST LAST NIGHT AND THIS IA EVIDENT ON THE 12Z MFL
SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS RETURNED, ALBEIT VERY
WEAK AT 10 MPH OR LESS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH ALSO EXISTS WELL TO THE
NORTH AND THIS CAUSING SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHICH IS
AIDING IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WARM
GULF/ATLANTIC WATERS. AT ANY RATE, WEAK SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. THE SOUNDING
CONTINUES TO SHOW PWAT AT JUST UNDER TWO INCHES WHICH IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY JULY. THE ENVIRONMENT
CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSTABLE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND
6C/KM WHICH IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT THEREFORE
APPEARS TO BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50MPH ALONG
WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. IN ADDITION, WITH THE DEEP BUT WEAK
SOUTHEAST FLOW THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZES AND
THEN SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH IS WHAT THE HRRR HAS BEEN
SHOWING SO THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR VSBYS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES ALTHOUGH SOME REMNANT FU/HZ FROM
FIREWORKS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR BRIEFLY AT SOME OF THE
EAST COAST SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. VCTS IS INCLUDED AT ALL AIRPORTS. MORNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM IS IN THE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE WEAK FLOW A FEW STORMS COULD AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE PREVAILING EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. KAPF SHOULD SEE A GULF BREEZE
DEVELOP AS WELL WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO
INITIATE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 77 89 78 / 40 30 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 80 90 81 / 40 30 30 30
MIAMI 89 78 89 80 / 40 30 40 30
NAPLES 90 75 90 76 / 40 30 40 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1033 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MCV AND ASSOCIATED MESO COMPLEX WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING
ESE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE NEARING AN EXIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 18-20Z. SOME REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...NEARER THE WARM FRONT AND STRONGER FORCING BACK IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA/NORTHERN MO. FOR NOW...HAVE
DIMINISHED POP THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON EAST BUT WILL REVISIT
FORECAST AGAIN FOR THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
PICTURE OVER NEBRASKA AND POTENTIAL FOR RECOVERY THERE BECOMES
MORE CLEAR. TEMPS HAVE COOLED A BIT WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
COLD POOL WITH RAINFALL...THUS MOST OF EAST WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MO VALLEY ELEVATED MCS CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS MORNING DRIVEN
BY MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING. EFFECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...500-1000 J/KG AND AROUND 40KTS
RESPECTIVELY...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION AND STORMS
PUSHING SEVERE LIMITS JUST TO OUR WEST. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS
THE MCS PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH IA LATER THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLY
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS BUT PRIMARILY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HEAVY
RAINS MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT WITH RAP PWS NOW UP TO 1.8 FUELED BY
STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT. COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WITH
THE MEAN WIND AND NOT FOLLOWING UPWIND PROPAGATION
/CORFIDI/ VECTOR SUGGESTING IT WOULD BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH AT 2-3KM
WITH LESS LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE AND MORE DRIVEN BY HIGHER LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. THUS WILL ADD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MENTION THIS MORNING BUT HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT ANTICIPATED.
FORCING MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY HOWEVER SO HAVE LOWERED
POPS WEST BUT KEPT CHANCES GOING EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
DOES BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES 4-
5K J/KG...BUT SOME CINH IS APPARENT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z.
HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC WITH GFS...NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING VARIED DEGREES OF MIXING. WITH MCS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HAVE PLAYED IT MORE CONSERVATIVE AND BELOW RAP
STAYING CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE. AIRMASS WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL
THROUGH THE 60S BY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ROUGHLY ZONAL 500
MB FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTH BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE AMPLIFIED AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CARVE OUT A MODEST 500 MB TROUGH FROM
THE MIDWEST OVER TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE FIRST SUCH IMPULSE WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME STORMS TODAY AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION ABOVE...AND THESE MAY LINGER IN OUR EAST AND SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OUT. THE SECOND IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING A COOL FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...THERMAL RIDGING ALONG WITH MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE GOOD HEATING AND AN IMPRESSIVE
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND VERY
HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS...THOSE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
POTENTIALLY EDGING ABOVE 100 DEGREES MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE
DAY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD CAPPING THAT WILL
BE TOUGH TO BREAK AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED PRETTY LOW POPS...PEAKING SUNDAY EVENING AS CAPPING
WEAKENS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN.
THE COOL FRONT WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES
LOWER WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SCOOTING THROUGH. THE STRONGEST 500
MB TROUGH OF THE SERIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING STRONG FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT
OVERNIGHT AND PROBABLY YIELDING SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE ARE SOME
TIMING QUESTIONS BUT IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE PRETTY
WIDESPREAD AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A MORE WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS IOWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WAVE ALOFT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SEVERAL DAYS OF RELIEF WITH HIGHS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWER HUMIDITY. POPS WILL BE
VERY LOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
THE FAR EXTENDED IS A BIT TRICKER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BY
THURSDAY THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. 500 MB TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN CARVED
OUT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA...INITIALLY
REPLACED BY WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER IOWA WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BUILDING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. THE GFS AND THE
PREVIOUS /12Z/ RUN OF THE ECMWF HAD BEEN BUILDING THIS BIG HEAT
DOME OVER IOWA INTO NEXT WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY AND VERY HOT
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE AND IS
USING A CANADIAN 500 MB TROUGH...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE
GFS DEPICTION...TO CARVE INTO THE RIDGE AND BRING THE INFAMOUS
RING OF FIRE DOWN OVER IOWA NEXT WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS
SOLUTION...HOT AND DRY UNDER THE BIG BUBBLE...SEEMS MORE FEASIBLE
FOR NOW AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS AND FAIRLY HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS APPROPRIATE. IF THE SOLUTIONS CONVERGE THAT WAY THEN LONG RANGE
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE RAISED ABOVE CURRENT VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...05/12Z
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL AFFECT KFOD/KDSM/KOTM FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH MVFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS AT KDSM. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
WEAKER CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE. CONCERN WILL THEN TURN TO FOG OR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT WITH
RAIN TODAY AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS HAVE INTRODUCED AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
712 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MO VALLEY ELEVATED MCS CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS MORNING DRIVEN
BY MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING. EFFECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...500-1000 J/KG AND AROUND 40KTS
RESPECTIVELY...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION AND STORMS
PUSHING SEVERE LIMITS JUST TO OUR WEST. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS
THE MCS PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH IA LATER THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLY
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS BUT PRIMARILY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HEAVY
RAINS MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT WITH RAP PWS NOW UP TO 1.8 FUELED BY
STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT. COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WITH
THE MEAN WIND AND NOT FOLLOWING UPWIND PROPAGATION
/CORFIDI/ VECTOR SUGGESTING IT WOULD BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH AT 2-3KM
WITH LESS LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE AND MORE DRIVEN BY HIGHER LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. THUS WILL ADD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MENTION THIS MORNING BUT HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT ANTICIPATED.
FORCING MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY HOWEVER SO HAVE LOWERED
POPS WEST BUT KEPT CHANCES GOING EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
DOES BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES 4-
5K J/KG...BUT SOME CINH IS APPARENT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z.
HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC WITH GFS...NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING VARIED DEGREES OF MIXING. WITH MCS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HAVE PLAYED IT MORE CONSERVATIVE AND BELOW RAP
STAYING CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE. AIRMASS WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL
THROUGH THE 60S BY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ROUGHLY ZONAL 500
MB FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTH BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE AMPLIFIED AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CARVE OUT A MODEST 500 MB TROUGH FROM
THE MIDWEST OVER TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE FIRST SUCH IMPULSE WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME STORMS TODAY AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION ABOVE...AND THESE MAY LINGER IN OUR EAST AND SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OUT. THE SECOND IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING A COOL FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...THERMAL RIDGING ALONG WITH MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE GOOD HEATING AND AN IMPRESSIVE
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND VERY
HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS...THOSE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
POTENTIALLY EDGING ABOVE 100 DEGREES MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE
DAY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD CAPPING THAT WILL
BE TOUGH TO BREAK AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED PRETTY LOW POPS...PEAKING SUNDAY EVENING AS CAPPING
WEAKENS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN.
THE COOL FRONT WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES
LOWER WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SCOOTING THROUGH. THE STRONGEST 500
MB TROUGH OF THE SERIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING STRONG FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT
OVERNIGHT AND PROBABLY YIELDING SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE ARE SOME
TIMING QUESTIONS BUT IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE PRETTY
WIDESPREAD AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A MORE WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS IOWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WAVE ALOFT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SEVERAL DAYS OF RELIEF WITH HIGHS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWER HUMIDITY. POPS WILL BE
VERY LOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
THE FAR EXTENDED IS A BIT TRICKER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BY
THURSDAY THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. 500 MB TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN CARVED
OUT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA...INITIALLY
REPLACED BY WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER IOWA WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BUILDING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. THE GFS AND THE
PREVIOUS /12Z/ RUN OF THE ECMWF HAD BEEN BUILDING THIS BIG HEAT
DOME OVER IOWA INTO NEXT WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY AND VERY HOT
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE AND IS
USING A CANADIAN 500 MB TROUGH...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE
GFS DEPICTION...TO CARVE INTO THE RIDGE AND BRING THE INFAMOUS
RING OF FIRE DOWN OVER IOWA NEXT WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS
SOLUTION...HOT AND DRY UNDER THE BIG BUBBLE...SEEMS MORE FEASIBLE
FOR NOW AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS AND FAIRLY HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS APPROPRIATE. IF THE SOLUTIONS CONVERGE THAT WAY THEN LONG RANGE
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE RAISED ABOVE CURRENT VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...05/12Z
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL AFFECT KFOD/KDSM/KOTM FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH MVFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS AT KDSM. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
WEAKER CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE. CONCERN WILL THEN TURN TO FOG OR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT WITH
RAIN TODAY AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS HAVE INTRODUCED AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
944 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
UPDATED TO INCREASE WINDS. BUFR SOUNDS SHOW WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC
TO BE IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE AND CURRENT OBS SHOWING THESE WINDS
ARE MIXING DOWN. NO CHANGES TO TSTSM CHANCES. WILL SEE SOME ISO
STORMS IN THE FAR NORTH THIS MORNING. AM NOT SO CONFIDENT ABOUT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS CAP.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESS/TROUGH... FROM CTRL CANADA
TO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS... CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD WARM ADVECTION
REGIME OVER THE CWA. LATEST RUC13 85H ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE
TRANS AXIS ALIGNED FROM ERN SODAK INTO NWRN PART OF CWA. AN
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN/TRW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR RAINY RIVER/BORDERLAND
VICINITY. THIS SECOND AREA IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SO SOME 50DBZ CORES HAVE PUNCHED
ABOVE 30K WITH STRONG/SVR STORMS POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CWA AS MSTR
TRANSPORT MAXIMUM SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE INTL BORDER. ELSEWHERE
LIMITED ACTIVITY WITH WARM AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
TODAY...INITIAL MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMA AT 85H IS FCST TO SHIFT ACROSS
ARROWHEAD EARLY MORNING AS ASSOCIATED MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES
EAST. THIS 85H MSTR TRANS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO A TWIN PORTS TO
CASS LAKE AXIS BY 18Z. AS THIS IS OCCURRING DEEP LAYER WAA WILL
BEGIN TO INHIBIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER SWRN CWA. CONFIDENCE
LOWER TO THE EAST AS UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER CONVECTION
CAN REDEVELOP FROM EARLIER OUTFLOW BDRIES. WILL TREND DOWN POPS
EXCEPT NORTH AND EASTERN CWA WHERE MID LVL CAP WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE.
VERY WARM HUMID DAY AHEAD AND USED HIGHER VALUES OF GEMREGBC FOR
MAX TEMPS TODAY. DESPITE EARLY MORNING ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR EXPECT THAT ONCE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT WILL WARM UP THE LAKEFRONT.
TONIGHT...GENERAL IDEA IS THAT AN MCS/MCC WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OVER NODAK AND TRACK
INTO CWA LATE TONIGHT. HI RES MDLS HAVE BEEN HIT OR MISS WITH
RESOLVING ACTIVITY IN THIS PATTERN. USING GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WILL PUT DEVELOPMENT NEAR NODAK/NW MN BORDER AROUND
06Z...AND TRACKING ACROSS NRN/CTRL CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAYSHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SIGNALS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES REGARDING
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SYSTEM. WOULD EXPECT INCREASING THREAT OF
STRONG/SVR STORMS WITH POSSIBLE WX WATCH REQUIRED FOR SOME PARTS
OF CWA.
TOMORROW...SFC LOW IN WRN ONTARIO WILL SWING A WINDSHIFT/TROF
ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS ERN CWA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN. BEHIND WINDSHIFT SHOULD SEE SIG WARMING AS FCST 925
TEMPS REACH 23C TO 25C. THIS GIVES MAX TEMPS IN MID 80S NEAR TWIN
PORTS. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS I35 CORRIDOR TOWARDS ITASCA
COUNTY. FCST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME
ORGANIZATION WITH THREAT OF A FEW STRONG OR SVR STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE SFC COLD FRONT EXITS THE FA SUNDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING BEHIND FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR THE
EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN DRY OVERNIGHT. NW
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A PARADE OF
EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE RAIN FREE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS...ALTHOUGH
IT WEAKENS IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE POPS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF FORCING TO
INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE PRECLUDES
ANYTHING MORE THAN HIGH CHANCE POPS. ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER TROF
CROSSES NORTHERN MN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE TUESDAY
WHEN BEST FORCING ARRIVES. LOWER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE
TROF...BUT CAA WORTHY OF THE MENTION. INSTABILITY IS MISSING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILD
OVER THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 02Z.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE AND SPEED OF THESE
STORMS...HAVE OPTED TO USE VCTS. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MID MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 82 65 85 60 / 30 60 60 10
INL 86 66 77 57 / 40 60 60 10
BRD 86 69 84 63 / 20 50 50 10
HYR 81 68 86 61 / 20 50 70 10
ASX 84 65 84 59 / 20 50 60 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLC
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
633 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESS/TROUGH... FROM CTRL CANADA
TO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS... CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD WARM ADVECTION
REGIME OVER THE CWA. LATEST RUC13 85H ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE
TRANS AXIS ALIGNED FROM ERN SODAK INTO NWRN PART OF CWA. AN
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN/TRW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR RAINY RIVER/BORDERLAND
VICINITY. THIS SECOND AREA IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SO SOME 50DBZ CORES HAVE PUNCHED
ABOVE 30K WITH STRONG/SVR STORMS POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CWA AS MSTR
TRANSPORT MAXIMUM SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE INTL BORDER. ELSEWHERE
LIMITED ACTIVITY WITH WARM AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
TODAY...INITIAL MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMA AT 85H IS FCST TO SHIFT ACROSS
ARROWHEAD EARLY MORNING AS ASSOCIATED MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES
EAST. THIS 85H MSTR TRANS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO A TWIN PORTS TO
CASS LAKE AXIS BY 18Z. AS THIS IS OCCURRING DEEP LAYER WAA WILL
BEGIN TO INHIBIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER SWRN CWA. CONFIDENCE
LOWER TO THE EAST AS UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER CONVECTION
CAN REDEVELOP FROM EARLIER OUTFLOW BDRIES. WILL TREND DOWN POPS
EXCEPT NORTH AND EASTERN CWA WHERE MID LVL CAP WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE.
VERY WARM HUMID DAY AHEAD AND USED HIGHER VALUES OF GEMREGBC FOR
MAX TEMPS TODAY. DESPITE EARLY MORNING ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR EXPECT THAT ONCE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT WILL WARM UP THE LAKEFRONT.
TONIGHT...GENERAL IDEA IS THAT AN MCS/MCC WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OVER NODAK AND TRACK
INTO CWA LATE TONIGHT. HI RES MDLS HAVE BEEN HIT OR MISS WITH
RESOLVING ACTIVITY IN THIS PATTERN. USING GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WILL PUT DEVELOPMENT NEAR NODAK/NW MN BORDER AROUND
06Z...AND TRACKING ACROSS NRN/CTRL CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAYSHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SIGNALS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES REGARDING
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SYSTEM. WOULD EXPECT INCREASING THREAT OF
STRONG/SVR STORMS WITH POSSIBLE WX WATCH REQUIRED FOR SOME PARTS
OF CWA.
TOMORROW...SFC LOW IN WRN ONTARIO WILL SWING A WINDSHIFT/TROF
ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS ERN CWA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN. BEHIND WINDSHIFT SHOULD SEE SIG WARMING AS FCST 925
TEMPS REACH 23C TO 25C. THIS GIVES MAX TEMPS IN MID 80S NEAR TWIN
PORTS. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS I35 CORRIDOR TOWARDS ITASCA
COUNTY. FCST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME
ORGANIZATION WITH THREAT OF A FEW STRONG OR SVR STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE SFC COLD FRONT EXITS THE FA SUNDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING BEHIND FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR THE
EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN DRY OVERNIGHT. NW
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A PARADE OF
EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE RAIN FREE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS...ALTHOUGH
IT WEAKENS IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE POPS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF FORCING TO
INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE PRECLUDES
ANYTHING MORE THAN HIGH CHANCE POPS. ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER TROF
CROSSES NORTHERN MN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE TUESDAY
WHEN BEST FORCING ARRIVES. LOWER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE
TROF...BUT CAA WORTHY OF THE MENTION. INSTABILITY IS MISSING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILD
OVER THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 02Z.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE AND SPEED OF THESE
STORMS...HAVE OPTED TO USE VCTS. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MID MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 82 65 85 60 / 30 60 60 10
INL 86 66 77 57 / 40 60 60 10
BRD 86 69 84 63 / 20 50 50 10
HYR 81 68 86 61 / 20 50 70 10
ASX 84 65 84 59 / 20 50 60 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
649 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
ON-GOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ABOUT AS EXPECTED AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASED TO AROUND 50 KNOTS COINCIDENT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THIS
RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING IN EASTERN
COUNTIES. THE 06Z RUN OF THE RAP AND THE NAM ACTUALLY KEEP
CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THAT THE LIFT BEING
GENERATED BY THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 15Z
SUNDAY... WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS WERE
INDICATING. THE NAM PUSHES IT INTO KANSAS BY 00Z BUT THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE CLOSER TO 06Z. REGARDLESS OF EXACT TIMING...THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH VERY UNSTABLE AIR...WITH MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FACTORS AGAINST STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A CAP
AS WELL AS A LACK OF BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER WITH
LOW LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT/CONVERGENCE... A FEW STORMS
COULD REACH THE LFC AND BECOME QUITE STRONG GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO MOVE POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES.
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH POPS PLACED IN AREAS LIKELY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE TEMPERATURE/HEAT INDEX FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS COMPLICATED BY
THE FRONT AS WELL AS POTENTIAL CONVECTION. ASSUMING ANY CONVECTION
THAT WOULD DEVELOP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AND
LOOSE DEWPOINT GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT...MOST AREAS SHOULD STILL BE
ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 105 ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES IN SUNDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BY WEDNESDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVES BACK EAST... AND A SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SEE RETURN FLOW ON SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE PINNING DOWN POPS AND TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
LATEST RADAR SHOWS ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STEADILY
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CLEAR ALL TAF SITES
BY 15Z. THIS CONVECTION IS ONLY A CONCERN AT KLNK AND KOMA. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE INTERMITTENT FOR THE REST OF MORNING. CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT ONCE THE MAIN CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAIN
SHIFTS EAST. GENERALLY GOOD WEATHER THEREAFTER...ESPECIALLY BY MID
AFTERNOON...AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS REMAIN. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS AN
ENHANCED FOG POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. PROBABLY THE BEST
CHANCE OF THIS WOULD BE AT KOMA WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN WAS RECEIVED
EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...PEARSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
929 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR HAS TRIED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH VERY MOIST PWAT AIR REMAINING ACROSS
THE HOUSTON AREA. HIGH RES HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF BOTH SHOW
COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES
TOWARDS OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. AT 500 MB VERY WEAK RIDGING
REMAINS OVERHEAD WHICH SUPPORTS THE HIGH RES MODELS IN DEVELOPING
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT 12Z SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEAL FAIRLY
DEEP MOISTURE AT KCRP (PWAT 1.87"). FORECAST PACKAGE HAS THIS
COVERED. NO UPDATE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. 23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO NE/N PARTS
OF THE REGION AND GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY CONFIRMS. STILL HAVE
RESPECTABLE MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THE AREA AND WILL
GEAR HIGHER POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-10 AND WEST OF I-45 TODAY.
SEVERAL OUTFLOWS SEEN OFF THE UPPER COAST AND DISTINCT LANDBREEZE
IS SETTING UP CONVERGENT ZONE SO WE COULD SEE SOME SCT ACTIVITY
DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINLY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
WEEK WITH SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF TO THE EAST. FURTHER ALOFT SE
TX WILL REMAIN IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS BETWEEN RIDGES. COMBINATION OF
BOTH SHOULD PROVIDE SOMEWHAT NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. SEABREEZE WILL
BE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ISO/SCT PRECIP EACH DAY WITH
OVERALL COVERAGE DEPENDENT ON SLIGHT VARIATIONS ON AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. 47
MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THIS FCST OF DIURNAL LANDBREEZE/SEABREEZE
CIRCULATIONS THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH LINGERS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S.. AS THE HIGH EDGES EAST...WE SHOULD SEE SLOWLY IN-
CREASING ONSHORE WINDS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THESE LIGHT/MOD-
ERATE SELY WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. 41
AVIATION...
AN ABUNDANCE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS HELPING
TO PRODUCE SOME SCT PCPN THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP THINGS QUIET FOR MOST OF OUR SITES THIS MORNING
(EXCEPT MAYBE GLS). HOWEVER SOME OF THE SHORT-TERM PROGS ARE SHOWING
AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE FOR THE SWRN PARTS OF THE REGION (WHERE MOISTURE
AND INFLOW ARE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE). AS SUCH MAY HAVE TO RECONSIDER
REINTRODUCING VCSH/VCTS FOR LBX/SGR THIS AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE VFR FOR
THE REST OF TODAY. 41
CLIMATE...
RAINFALL HAS NOW BEEN RECORDED IN HOUSTON ON JULY 4TH IN 11 OF
THE PAST 15 YEARS...AND 59 OF THE PAST 126. THE 0.48" RECORDED
YESTERDAY NEARLY MOVED IT INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST (5TH PLACE IS
0.51" SET IN 1898). 47
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 92 72 93 73 93 / 20 10 20 10 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 72 92 73 92 / 30 10 30 10 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 78 89 79 89 / 30 20 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
924 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT FIRED UP OVER NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
PER THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW CONTINUES ON A EAST-SOUTHEAST
TRACK...STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SO HAVE BEEN LOWERING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IN FACT...ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAY
RIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ENDS UP DRY AS THE TRENDS IN THE
05.12Z RAP...HRRR AND NAM SUGGEST. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A CAP
BUILDING INTO THE AREA AT 750MB THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...AIDING IN THAT DRY FORECAST.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION INSTIGATOR IS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH NORTHERN MN SEEN ON WATER VAPOR. PERHAPS THIS SHORTWAVE
COULD KICK SOMETHING OFF NORTH OF I-94 THIS AFTERNOON...OR IT MAY
END UP BEING COMPLETELY NORTH OF MY CWA AS MOST OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST. THUS...MAY NEED TO DO SOME REALIGNING OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO FOCUS THEM MORE UP TOWARDS TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING VERSUS FARTHER SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN CHANCES BOTH THIS MORNING...
AND AGAIN TONIGHT. 07Z RADAR LOOPS SHOW SOME SHOWERS/TSRA ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN AND NORTH CENTRAL IA. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO DRIER AIR. BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHERE A LARGER COMPLEX IS
GETTING FIRED UP OVER NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN ASSISTING
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL HAVE VARIED OPINIONS
ON HOW THE RAIN IS GOING TO PAN OUT TODAY BUT THE GENERAL THINKING
IS THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. COULD BE SOME ACTION THAT SURVIVES SO
MAY HAVE TO CARRY SOME SMALL CHANCES. LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN THE
RAIN THREAT THEN FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT
SENDS SOME WEAK IMPULSES INTO NORTHERN WI BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD HELP GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO
NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT CERTAIN IF THIS WILL MAKE IT INTO
NORTH CENTRAL WI BY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A
SHORT WAVE IN THE INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT RIGHT DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME. WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE IN
THE 3-4K J/KG RANGE WITH AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION OF STORMS
THAT SHOULD FIRE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY...CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A COUPLE MORE SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOK TO
RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
CURRENTLY WATCHING A COMPLEX OF SHRA/TS MARCHING EAST ACROSS IA.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AMID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. LOOKING
FOR THIS FEATURE TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...KEEPING BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS SOUTH OF I-90 AND AWAY
FROM KLSE/KRST TAF SITES TODAY. VFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE THE
ONLY RESULT VFR CLOUD COVER THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. PLAN ON SOME
LOWER CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AS INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WORKS INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EXPECTING
CLOUD BASES TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR RANGE BY 20Z AT KRST AND BY
01Z AT KLSE. COULD EVEN SEE CLOUD HEIGHTS DIP INTO IFR BRIEFLY AT
KRST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES IN THE
3-6SM RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO RUN HIGH...BUT THE RIVER IS NOW
PAST CREST EVERYWHERE IN OUR SERVICE AREA. OTHER TRIBUTARY CREEKS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE BACK TOWARD A MORE NORMAL BASE FLOW.
SOME CONCERN ON WHAT THE RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY WILL DO TO RIVER
LEVELS...BUT ANY STORMS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE AS THE
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD RENEWED FLOOD RISK.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
137 PM PDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL KEEP
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER
THE DESERT AREA AND SIERRA NEVADA AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWS OVER
THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL MOISTURE...REMINENTS OF POST TROPICAL
CYCLONE DOUGLAS...CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWEST INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF KERN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
INITIALLY...WE WERE CONCERNED WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT...HOWEVER CHANCES CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS ALL CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. IF THUNDERSTORM DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN TULARE AND FRESNO
COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MEDIUM WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES...GENERALLY BETWEEN 100 TO 105 THROUGH THE VALLEY LOCATIONS
AND TO NEAR 110 IN THE DESERT LOCATIONS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR TOMORROW...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN AND
DESERT AS WELL AS THE SIERRA CREST. THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES
SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST...HOWEVER MID LEVEL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE SIERRA CREST.
BEGINNING MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FOCUSED ON THE SIERRA
CREST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY AND DESERT LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTURY MARK INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY IF NOT
THURSDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR NUDGE INTO THE UPPER 90S.
REGARDLESS...THESE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE CONVECTION OVER THE
REGION...BOTH TIMING AND AREA OF INITIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KERN COUNTY
DESERTS...TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA BETWEEN 21Z TODAY THRU 06Z SUN. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE PROBABLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 07-05 112:1991 77:1909 77:1991 52:1948
KFAT 07-06 111:2007 83:1903 78:2007 50:1955
KFAT 07-07 111:1905 84:1891 76:1936 53:1903
KBFL 07-05 114:1931 80:1961 81:1970 53:1948
KBFL 07-06 116:1913 85:1955 81:2011 52:1915
KBFL 07-07 114:1905 85:1983 81:1968 46:1903
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...WP
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
312 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MCV/MCS CURRENTLY EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD BACK BUT ARE RECOVERING ACROSS THE
WEST. WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN MO THIS MORNING HAS BEEN REINFORCED
BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MESOSCALE SYSTEM...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTH DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. MODELS AT ODDS ABOUT
CONVECTION COVERAGE TONIGHT...BUT HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THROUGH IOWA OVERNIGHT. WEAKEST PORTION OF THE H700 CAP FAVORS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HRRR REFLECTS SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH
A BAND OF STORMS FORMING AFT 04Z NEAR I80 CORRIDOR...VARIOUS OTHER
SOLUTIONS ALSO FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EAST OR ALONG THE
IOWA/MO BORDER BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND IMPINGES ALONG THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WILL
INCREASE POPS AGAIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE EAST AND
SOUTH...WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SUGGEST SOME SOUTHEASTERLY DRIFT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...IF CONVECTION GETS A
BIT MORE ORGANIZED COULD SEE A QUICK INCH OR TWO TOTAL FROM ANY
STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS PUSHING 13-14KFT
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL RUNNING 1.5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED. AFTER LAST NIGHTS/THIS MORNING RAINFALL... GRIDDED
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS LOWERED TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER A GOOD
SHARE OF THE SOUTH WITH 3 HOURLY GUIDANCE NEARING 2 INCHES OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS. THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER COUNTIES CONTINUE
HIGHER...WITH 2 INCH VALUES FOR 1 HOUR AND 2 TO 3 INCH VALUES FOR
3 HOUR GUIDANCE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...NOT MUCH CAPACITY LEFT IN SOIL
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOWS WILL CREEP UP
TONIGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF MUCH SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN WITH
THE RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE RATHER ACTIVE WX AND AN
OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN OF WESTERLIES INVOF OF IOWA...EVOLVING
FROM BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW TO BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.
MAIN CHALLENGES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE TSRA CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE AS WELL AS LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH
IOWA SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
SUMMER-LIKE...WITH THERMAL RIDGING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
RESULTING IN SEASONALLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S
ARE EXPECTED. AN IMPULSE WILL SWEEP A COOL FRONT INTO THE STATE
ON SUNDAY. QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST ALONG THE FRONT WILL THE TSRA
DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
RESPECTABLE...CAPPING WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE WEST ACROSS THE
STATE. BEST CHANCES OF TSRA WILL BE IN EASTERN IOWA...WHERE THE
CAP WILL BE WEAKER AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE STRONGER. LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY LATE EVENING...SO
HAVE BROUGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE STAGE BY
THAT TIME. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY INVOF THE
IA-MO BORDER BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF TSRA BY LATE
MON. BOTH THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING WILL BE STRONGER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE ONE ON LATE SUN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH ANOTHER COOL FRONT SOUTH THROUGH IOWA...EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY INVOF THE IA-MO BORDER. AMPLE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
SFC-BASED TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST A FEW
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING.
AFTER THE FROPA MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING...CYCLONIC WESTERLIES
WILL DOMINATE THE WX INTO LATER IN THE WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN
WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK IMPULSE PASSES
OVER THE REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
BRINGING ANOTHER BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z RUN
WAS CONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD WITH THE 00Z RUN. THIS SOLUTION IS
ADMITTEDLY DIFFERENT THAN LAST NIGHT/S LONG TERM PACKAGE WHICH
KEPT THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE CWA. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE CWA TO END THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...05/18Z
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE CIGS AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. OLD
MCV/MCS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH POCKETS OF IFR CIG STILL
EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION AT 100 PM...GRADUALLY THE CIGS SHOULD
LIFT A BIT TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AS THE CONVECTION PULLS AWAY.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SOME HINT AT STORM REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL...SIGNAL NOT ALL THAT STRONG RIGHT NOW. BR
WILL RETURN TOWARD 09Z WITH POTENTIAL 2-5SM VSBY FOR SEVERAL HOURS
EITHER SIDE 12Z. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP FROM SW WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BY 15Z AS CAP ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION DOWN UNTIL
FRONT APPROACHES AFT 18Z ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
104 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MCV AND ASSOCIATED MESO COMPLEX WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING
ESE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE NEARING AN EXIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 18-20Z. SOME REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...NEARER THE WARM FRONT AND STRONGER FORCING BACK IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA/NORTHERN MO. FOR NOW...HAVE
DIMINISHED POP THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON EAST BUT WILL REVISIT
FORECAST AGAIN FOR THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
PICTURE OVER NEBRASKA AND POTENTIAL FOR RECOVERY THERE BECOMES
MORE CLEAR. TEMPS HAVE COOLED A BIT WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
COLD POOL WITH RAINFALL...THUS MOST OF EAST WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MO VALLEY ELEVATED MCS CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS MORNING DRIVEN
BY MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING. EFFECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...500-1000 J/KG AND AROUND 40KTS
RESPECTIVELY...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION AND STORMS
PUSHING SEVERE LIMITS JUST TO OUR WEST. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS
THE MCS PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH IA LATER THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLY
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS BUT PRIMARILY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HEAVY
RAINS MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT WITH RAP PWS NOW UP TO 1.8 FUELED BY
STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT. COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WITH
THE MEAN WIND AND NOT FOLLOWING UPWIND PROPAGATION
/CORFIDI/ VECTOR SUGGESTING IT WOULD BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH AT 2-3KM
WITH LESS LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE AND MORE DRIVEN BY HIGHER LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. THUS WILL ADD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MENTION THIS MORNING BUT HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT ANTICIPATED.
FORCING MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY HOWEVER SO HAVE LOWERED
POPS WEST BUT KEPT CHANCES GOING EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
DOES BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES 4-
5K J/KG...BUT SOME CINH IS APPARENT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z.
HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC WITH GFS...NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING VARIED DEGREES OF MIXING. WITH MCS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HAVE PLAYED IT MORE CONSERVATIVE AND BELOW RAP
STAYING CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE. AIRMASS WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL
THROUGH THE 60S BY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ROUGHLY ZONAL 500
MB FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTH BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE AMPLIFIED AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CARVE OUT A MODEST 500 MB TROUGH FROM
THE MIDWEST OVER TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE FIRST SUCH IMPULSE WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME STORMS TODAY AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION ABOVE...AND THESE MAY LINGER IN OUR EAST AND SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OUT. THE SECOND IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING A COOL FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...THERMAL RIDGING ALONG WITH MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE GOOD HEATING AND AN IMPRESSIVE
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND VERY
HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS...THOSE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
POTENTIALLY EDGING ABOVE 100 DEGREES MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE
DAY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD CAPPING THAT WILL
BE TOUGH TO BREAK AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED PRETTY LOW POPS...PEAKING SUNDAY EVENING AS CAPPING
WEAKENS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN.
THE COOL FRONT WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES
LOWER WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SCOOTING THROUGH. THE STRONGEST 500
MB TROUGH OF THE SERIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING STRONG FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT
OVERNIGHT AND PROBABLY YIELDING SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE ARE SOME
TIMING QUESTIONS BUT IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE PRETTY
WIDESPREAD AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A MORE WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS IOWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WAVE ALOFT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SEVERAL DAYS OF RELIEF WITH HIGHS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWER HUMIDITY. POPS WILL BE
VERY LOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
THE FAR EXTENDED IS A BIT TRICKER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BY
THURSDAY THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. 500 MB TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN CARVED
OUT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA...INITIALLY
REPLACED BY WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER IOWA WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BUILDING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. THE GFS AND THE
PREVIOUS /12Z/ RUN OF THE ECMWF HAD BEEN BUILDING THIS BIG HEAT
DOME OVER IOWA INTO NEXT WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY AND VERY HOT
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE AND IS
USING A CANADIAN 500 MB TROUGH...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE
GFS DEPICTION...TO CARVE INTO THE RIDGE AND BRING THE INFAMOUS
RING OF FIRE DOWN OVER IOWA NEXT WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS
SOLUTION...HOT AND DRY UNDER THE BIG BUBBLE...SEEMS MORE FEASIBLE
FOR NOW AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS AND FAIRLY HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS APPROPRIATE. IF THE SOLUTIONS CONVERGE THAT WAY THEN LONG RANGE
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE RAISED ABOVE CURRENT VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...05/18Z
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE CIGS AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. OLD
MCV/MCS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH POCKETS OF IFR CIG STILL
EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION AT 100 PM...GRADUALLY THE CIGS SHOULD
LIFT A BIT TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AS THE CONVECTION PULLS AWAY.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SOME HINT AT STORM REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL...SIGNAL NOT ALL THAT STRONG RIGHT NOW.
BR WILL RETURN TOWARD 09Z WITH POTENTIAL 2-5SM VSBY FOR SEVERAL
HOURS EITHER SIDE 12Z. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP FROM SW WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY 15Z AS CAP ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION DOWN
UNTIL FRONT APPROACHES AFT 18Z ACROSS THE NORTH./REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
248 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
Forecast today quickly challenged with mesoscale conditions as
convective complex moved across eastern Nebraska in the early
morning hours. An outflow boundary then moved southwest into
northeast Kansas, through about Topeka to just east of Marysville.
As southwesterly surface winds have strengthened through the day,
they have worked to counter slightly reinforced outflow and push
this boundary back to the north. Little progress was made on the
east end, and appears as though the incoming upper shortwave
evident on WV imagery will move across this boundary for the
remainder of the afternoon and evening hours.
While shear is not ideal, and high surface dewpoints not conducive
for a high end wind threat, there is enough instability
(2000-3000J/kg range) to consider hail and possibly locally heavy
rainfall a threat if these storms develop and move through.
Forecast is certainly probabilistic - GFS confines convection more
east, as does the EC, although the EC is slower with its exit
through the morning on Sunday. The HRRR and NAM extend area of
convection farther westward from NE KS and drop cluster of precip
south southeast across the area through the evening hours. Have
played the forecast toward the latter, although kept coverage
isolated in nature as it passes through. Can`t rule out a bust with
precip, especially as you go west, but do think the far eastern
counties will see hit and miss showers and thunderstorms as the
evening goes on.
Heat returns on Sunday as mid level temperatures climb under the
shortwave ridge behind the departing shortwave trof. Have highs in
the 90s with heat indices coming out in the 99-103 range as the
dewpoints hold around 70 east to the 60s west...however western
counties are hotter so in the end heat index differences are subtle
at best.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
By Sunday evening the cold front dips southward from central NE,
straddling the KS and NE border near 00Z. The main upper trough
positioned to our north and east at this time has given guidance
lower confidence in precip developing near the weakly convergent
frontal boundary until after midnight. Northern areas of the CWA
have a slight chance for thunderstorms while most of the CWA
remains dry.
Monday afternoon will be another hot and humid day as the surface
trough over western KS deepens, increasing southwesterly flow and
mixing of warmer air aloft. Highs once again in the mid to upper 90s
are likely with heat indices between 100 and 103 degrees. A more
potent shortwave trough digs southward through the plains on Monday
evening, shunting the cold front through the CWA by 18Z Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the Nebraska and
northwest MO border, decreasing to a chance further south as the
heavier precip bands follow the upper trough axis centered over
central/northern MO. Wind shear through 6 KM increases overnight
with the passing wave between 30 and 40 kts while MLCAPE is around
1500 J/KG. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out, especially if
they redevelop or are able to become sfc based in the afternoon.
Winds shift back towards the south with another incoming upper wave
expected Wednesday evening. Trends show the heavier precip bands to
impact mainly north central and portions of central KS where highest
pops were placed. Precipitation will wane as it lifts northeast
through Thursday, replaced by temporary ridging on Friday. Saturday
begins the unsettled pattern once again as northwest flow begins
to bring another series of weak disturbances through the region.
Highs behind the boundary Tuesday through Thursday will cool back to
the 80s with lows in the upper 60s. Increased warm advection Friday
and Saturday, raise temps once again to the 90s accompanied by lows
in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
Outflow boundary has made it as far south as TOP/FOE terminals,
so have added tempo light winds to accommodate until southwesterly
winds can push a retreat. Will add vcsh for current periods then
VCTS for evening as slightly stronger wave pushes south into the
area. Should clear just before sunrise at terminals.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
425 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO
THE NRN PLAINS AND A DOWNSTREAM WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO(NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR)
COMBINED WITH 25-30 KNOT 850-750 MB INFLOW OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR (MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 40 KNOT 0-6KM SHEAR
SUPPORTED STRONG CONVECTION OVER NE MN AND ADJOINING PORTION OF
ONTARIO. SOME SHRA/TSRA WERE ALSO SLIDING INTO LAKE SUPERIOR BUT
WERE WEAKENING AS THE CONVECTION MOVED AWAY FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE
AIR. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE AND SSW FLOW WAA PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE ONGOING SHRA/TSRA INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY SLIDE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NRN
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...PER RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANG HIGH RES
MODELS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM LATE
THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS MUCH HIGHER WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF MCS DEVELOPMENT AND ITS EVENTUAL TRACK. EXPECT THAT THE HIGHER
SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF UPPER MI BUT THAT
SOME MAY MOVE INTO UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WITH ONLY
LIMITED MUCAPE INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...ANY TSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
SUNDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER SHRTWV AND COLD FRONT MOVE TOWARD THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THAT
DEPENDS ON THE AMOUNT OF THICKER CLOUDS THAT LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH CLEARING DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS TO ALLOW TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 80S(DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S)...MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K RANGE COMBINED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 35-40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE ORGANIZED STORMS. 0-1KM
HELICITY/SHAPE IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS/SUPERCELLS.
IF MORE PROMINENT CLOUDS REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE GREATER
INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAINLY OVER WI AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE FAR SRN CWA. NMRS SHRA/TSRA OVER CNTRL UPPER MI DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE S AND ERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND SFC LOW WILL BE JUST N OF THE CWA WITH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA AT 00Z MON.
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY SEVERE /SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE
DETAILS ON SEVERE THREAT/...WILL BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. BY 06Z MON...THE FRONT
WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE ERN CWA...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION E OF
THE CWA.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO MOVE N OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY ON MON...BUT FORCING WILL STAY N KEEPING THE CWA DRY FOR THE
MOST PART. THE NAM IS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN MON
EVENING...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN PRECIP LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN
CWA...BUT MOST OTHER MODELS SHOW THIS COMING IN MON NIGHT OR EVEN
EARLY TUE. AS IS USUAL WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS IS QUITE LOW THIS
FAR OUT.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MON NIGHT OR TUE...WHICH
APPEARS TO STAY S OF THE CWA. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO
MOVE OVER THE NRN CWA TUE NIGHT...BUT WITH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE SHORTWAVE.
WITH THE GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WILL LEAD TO AN ABOVE NORMAL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL OCCUR THU THROUGH NEXT
SAT...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA WITH
THE INCREASING SRLY FLOW. SOME TSRA ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION/TIMING IS ONLY MARGINAL...ONLY RPROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER THE WEST. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY LATE SUN MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXIT
EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOK FOR THE RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TO
WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR S MANITOBA SUNDAY MORNING SLIDES ACROSS
ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL DEEPEN SW OF JAMES BAY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH AVERAGING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN OR NEAR ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
THE REGION... BUT ONCE AGAIN THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THAT POTENTIAL
WILL BE REALIZED. WE SHOULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON... WHICH WILL LIKELY GROW UP SCALE INTO AN MCS.
IF THIS OCCURS OVER NORTH DAKOTA AS MOST OF THE MODELS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS... IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF IT WOULD TRANSLATE EAST ALONG
THE THICKNESS CONTOURS AND MISS US TO THE NORTH. THERE ARE SOME
HINTS IN THE CAM SOLUTIONS THAT A SECOND COMPLEX COULD DEVELOP
FARTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA... BUT IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR IT
WOULD LIKELY TRANSLATE MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MISS US TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. A THIRD POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WOULD ACTUALLY BE
SOONER... DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER OUR NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST CWFA... IF ANYTHING MANAGES TO DEVELOP IN THE CU FIELD
CURRENTLY IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. A COUPLE OF HOPWRF MEMBERS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT IS
POSSIBLE... BUT THE OTHER MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE HRRR KEEP ANY OF
THAT NORTH OF THE AREA. SO... OVERALL THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT... BUT IT IS BY NO MEANS A SLAM DUNK. WILL ALLOW POPS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH SOME DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS... WITH THAT AREA LOOKING TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE
SOMETHING. ANYTHING THAT/S OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WOULD SHIFT
EAST IN THE MORNING... SO TRANSLATED SOME CHANCE POPS EASTWARD. WE
WOULD THEN NEED TO LOOK TOWARD DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT... WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE. THAT
TIMING IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
AREA... AND WOULD MAINLY POINT TOWARD AREAS EAST OF I-35 HAVING A
CHANCE OF SEEING SOMETHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO... PUT THE
HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY... THEY WOULD
CERTAINLY HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES AOA
2500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR AOA 35 KT... SO IT CERTAINLY BEARS
WATCHING AND WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN SHOULD THE FRONTAL TIMING
WIND UP SLOWER. WE WILL MAKE A RUN AT 90 ON SUNDAY DEPENDING UPON
HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE SEE OVER THE AREA... WHICH COULD BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE DEPENDING ON ANY ISSUES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
AND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. THE FAIRLY EARLY FROPA
DOESN/T APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
POTENTIAL... WITH MIXING ACTUALLY LOOKING TO INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS NEAR 90.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. GOOD MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD
ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE DRYING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
WITH A WAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO ND/MN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A BIT MID DECK OF STRATUS OR STRATO-CU MIGHT ACT
TO SUPPRESS SBCAPE...BUT THERE SHOULD BE DECENT RECOVERY IN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND SHOULD INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...STORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD POSE A HAIL THREAT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE SPC SLIGHT RISK SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
30-50% ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE IDEA OF AT
LEAST SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE WITH THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE AS THE
TRIGGER. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CYCLONICALLY CURVED LONG WAVE PATTERN LINGERS THROUGHOUT AT LEAST
MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE COOL EARLY START
TO THIS JULY...WHICH SITS BETWEEN 4 AND 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST FEW DAYS IN CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. HEIGHTS
BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THE FLOW STILL REMAINS W-NW AND THE
THERMAL RIDGE OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND HIGH PLAINS WILL
STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE EAST. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE CFS...05.12Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR CORRESPONDING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH INDICATES
A NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE...BUT OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS LOCALLY. IT DOES MEAN IF WE DONT REACH 90
TOMORROW...IT MAY BE SOME TIME BEFORE WE GET CLOSE TO THAT AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
STILL APPEARS THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT MOST FORECAST SITES. HOWEVER... WITH WINDS A BIT
LIGHTER TONIGHT SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CEILINGS. THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA... SO WILL PRIMARILY
MENTION IT THERE. OTHERWISE... THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ISSUES WILL
BE TIED TO PCPN CHANCES... AND THOSE STILL APPEAR TO MAINLY BE A
CONCERN TO OUR NORTH AND PERHAPS OUR SOUTHWEST. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ONCE AGAIN... BUT THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE WOULD SUGGEST ANY NORTHERN ACTIVITY
WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AND ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH IN
THE DAKOTAS WILL DIVE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MISS US TO THE
SOUTH. THE GFS DOES BRING SOME MCS-LIKE PCPN INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT... BUT THE NAM AND ECMWF KEEP THINGS TO THE NORTH. IN
ADDITION... THE MAJORITY OF CAM GUIDANCE FAILS TO BRING MUCH OF
ANYTHING INTO THE AREA... CERTAINLY NOT A SUFFICIENT SIGNAL TO
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.
KMSP...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE WHETHER WE SEE AN CONVECTION
WORK INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT... AND WHETHER WE SEE ANY MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND/OR LOWER CEILINGS EVEN IF CONVECTION DOESN/T MAKE
IT INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS LOW... AND
GIVEN THE REASONS CITED ABOVE... DON/T THINK ANYTHING WILL GET
INTO THE AREA AT THIS POINT AND TIME. HOWEVER... WE COULD STILL
HAVE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AROUND LATE TONIGHT FOR AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES... SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF THAT AFTER 08Z. THERE IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SUNDAY WITH THE
FROPA... BUT TIMING OF IT CURRENTLY IMPLIES THAT ANYTHING WHICH
DEVELOPS MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL IT IS THROUGH THE AREA... SO LEFT
OUT ANY MENTION FOR NOW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
MONDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
103 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
UPDATED TO INCREASE WINDS. BUFR SOUNDS SHOW WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC
TO BE IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE AND CURRENT OBS SHOWING THESE WINDS
ARE MIXING DOWN. NO CHANGES TO TSTSM CHANCES. WILL SEE SOME ISO
STORMS IN THE FAR NORTH THIS MORNING. AM NOT SO CONFIDENT ABOUT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS CAP.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESS/TROUGH... FROM CTRL CANADA
TO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS... CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD WARM ADVECTION
REGIME OVER THE CWA. LATEST RUC13 85H ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE
TRANS AXIS ALIGNED FROM ERN SODAK INTO NWRN PART OF CWA. AN
INITIAL BAND OF RAIN/TRW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR RAINY RIVER/BORDERLAND
VICINITY. THIS SECOND AREA IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SO SOME 50DBZ CORES HAVE PUNCHED
ABOVE 30K WITH STRONG/SVR STORMS POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CWA AS MSTR
TRANSPORT MAXIMUM SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE INTL BORDER. ELSEWHERE
LIMITED ACTIVITY WITH WARM AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
TODAY...INITIAL MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMA AT 85H IS FCST TO SHIFT ACROSS
ARROWHEAD EARLY MORNING AS ASSOCIATED MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES
EAST. THIS 85H MSTR TRANS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO A TWIN PORTS TO
CASS LAKE AXIS BY 18Z. AS THIS IS OCCURRING DEEP LAYER WAA WILL
BEGIN TO INHIBIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER SWRN CWA. CONFIDENCE
LOWER TO THE EAST AS UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER CONVECTION
CAN REDEVELOP FROM EARLIER OUTFLOW BDRIES. WILL TREND DOWN POPS
EXCEPT NORTH AND EASTERN CWA WHERE MID LVL CAP WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE.
VERY WARM HUMID DAY AHEAD AND USED HIGHER VALUES OF GEMREGBC FOR
MAX TEMPS TODAY. DESPITE EARLY MORNING ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR EXPECT THAT ONCE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT WILL WARM UP THE LAKEFRONT.
TONIGHT...GENERAL IDEA IS THAT AN MCS/MCC WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OVER NODAK AND TRACK
INTO CWA LATE TONIGHT. HI RES MDLS HAVE BEEN HIT OR MISS WITH
RESOLVING ACTIVITY IN THIS PATTERN. USING GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WILL PUT DEVELOPMENT NEAR NODAK/NW MN BORDER AROUND
06Z...AND TRACKING ACROSS NRN/CTRL CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAYSHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SIGNALS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES REGARDING
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SYSTEM. WOULD EXPECT INCREASING THREAT OF
STRONG/SVR STORMS WITH POSSIBLE WX WATCH REQUIRED FOR SOME PARTS
OF CWA.
TOMORROW...SFC LOW IN WRN ONTARIO WILL SWING A WINDSHIFT/TROF
ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS ERN CWA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN. BEHIND WINDSHIFT SHOULD SEE SIG WARMING AS FCST 925
TEMPS REACH 23C TO 25C. THIS GIVES MAX TEMPS IN MID 80S NEAR TWIN
PORTS. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS I35 CORRIDOR TOWARDS ITASCA
COUNTY. FCST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME
ORGANIZATION WITH THREAT OF A FEW STRONG OR SVR STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE SFC COLD FRONT EXITS THE FA SUNDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING BEHIND FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR THE
EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN DRY OVERNIGHT. NW
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A PARADE OF
EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE RAIN FREE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS...ALTHOUGH
IT WEAKENS IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE POPS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF FORCING TO
INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE PRECLUDES
ANYTHING MORE THAN HIGH CHANCE POPS. ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER TROF
CROSSES NORTHERN MN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE TUESDAY
WHEN BEST FORCING ARRIVES. LOWER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE
TROF...BUT CAA WORTHY OF THE MENTION. INSTABILITY IS MISSING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILD
OVER THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR IFR/MVFR CONDTIONS
AT BRD DUE TO LOW STRATUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THESE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTIUNE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTROMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS AFTER
06Z. THIS AREA WILL SPREAD INTO THE OTHER TAF SITES AND MAY CAUSE
IFR/MVFR CONSTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 82 65 85 60 / 30 60 60 10
INL 86 66 77 57 / 40 60 60 10
BRD 86 69 84 63 / 20 50 50 10
HYR 81 68 86 61 / 20 50 70 10
ASX 84 65 84 59 / 20 50 60 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLC
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...STEWART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
(Tonight)
Complex of thunderstorms that persisted into early afternoon have
finally began to diminish as they moved into limited instability to
the east and little forcing to the south. This evening, the RAP and
localWRF shows a rapid increase of low level moisture convergence
and MUCAPE across the northern CWA which supports the going PoPS
that we already have going in the forecast. Going temps fit in well
with new agreeable MOS temps. Southern and eastern CWA are still in
under the influence of a retreating ridge.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms going over the the area on
Sunday, with the best chances going during the morning hours over
the northeastern half of the CWA. This is where the strongest low
level moisture convergence coincides with the weak ascent that a
shortwave trough will provide as it passes through the area. This
is supported by various simulated reflectivity of the convective
allowing WRFs. The latest run of the GFS appears too deep with the
trough because of convective feedback. Thunderstorms are also
expected to develop over Iowa and northern Illinois later in the day
and early evening in a very unstable airmass along a southeastward
moving cold front. Will continue the chance of shower and
thunderstorms over the area as these storms will be gradually
diminishing in intensity through the night as they move into the
CWA.
By Monday and Tuesday this front will have become nearly stationary
over the area under west northwesterly flow. Will keep high chance
or low likely chances given the high CAPEs and the weak vort
maxes moving the upper flow.
It still looks like highs will reach the mid 90s over the central
part of the CWA including the St. Louis metro area on Monday
afternoon. Combine this with expected dewpoints in the lower 70s
and heat index readings will top out around 100.
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Both the GFS and ECMWF show the cold front pushing into the Mid
South by Wednesday as the mean trough moves to the east of the
area. However differences between the two models begin to show up
by Friday as the ECMWF is much more aggressive in moving a deeper
trough across the northern CONUS than the GFS. Consequently, the
ECMWF brings a cold front across the area on Saturday while the GFS
instead is building a ridge across the area. The ECMWF does not
appear to have good continuity with this feature, so will not go
along with this solution. Instead, will keep with a chance of
thunderstorms over the southern CWA on Wednesday which will be the
area in closest proximity to the front. Will also keep going chance
of thunderstorms over the area on Friday as both models continue to
indicate that the front will move through the CWA as a warm front.
850mb temperatures of +15C support below normal temperatures in the
mid 80s for Wednesday and Thursday before temperatures climb back
closer to normal by next Saturday.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
Ongoing convection over northern Missouri/southern Iowa has been
slow in its progression due to increasingly stable air to the
south and east of the showers/thunderstorms. KUIN is the most
likely candidate to experience precipitation this afternoon as the
activity moves east, however, the convection should
continue to gradually weaken. MVFR flight conditions may occur in
areas of rainfall, though otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
to continue. An area of thunderstorm activity currently over mid
Missouri may impact KCOU, however, uncertainty in its progression
has warranted only a VCTS mention this afternoon. Expect
precipitation today to remain well north/west of metro TAF sites.
Another round of precipitation could impact area TAF sites
overnight tonight and early tomorrow morning, with the GFS
indicating more widespread activity, with showers and
thunderstorms expanding from northwest Missouri into the metro
area by daybreak. The NAM keeps precipitation focused more over
northern MO/southern IA as well as over western MO. Given the
uncertainties in the evolution of precipitation overnight, and
particualrly concerning any diurnal development on Sunday, have
gone with dry TAFs beyond this afternoon. Otherwise, high clouds
will continue to overspread the area today and tonight, with winds
maintaining a southerly to southwesterly direction, increasing to
10-15KT Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
Have currently maintained dry, VFR conditions for the duration of
the forecast. Precipitation today will remain well north and
west of the terminal, and while some models indicate
showers/thunderstorms developing and impacting the terminal around
daybreak Sunday, model disagreement and uncertainty has precluded
mention in the TAF at this time. There will also be the potential
for showers/thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon, but activity may
hinge on the evolution of any precipitation overnight, along with
associated remnant boundaries. High clouds will continue to stream
over the terminal, with diurnal cumulus developing once again on
Sunday. Winds will remain generally out of the south to southwest
for the duration, and should increase to around 10-13KT Sunday.
JP
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
254 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight into Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
Currently, large expanse of high level clouds have enveloped much
of the outlook area. This is blow off from a convective complex
to our north. Over the past few hours, this area of showers and
storms has rapidly decayed, with just a few lingering showers near
northern portions of Miller/Maries counties. This activity will
dissipate over the next hour or so, with additional development
expected later. Temperatures have been affected, somewhat, by the
high cloud coverage, with most locations in the upper 70s to lower
80s. The only exception is across extreme southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri where mid/upper 80s are a bit more common.
Anticipate that scattered TSRA will redevelop to the northwest of
the CWA later today in line with the HRRR and NAM12...however
models handling how this will propagate inconsistently. Given
orientation of the moisture transport/low level Theta E would
anticipate activity to build soutwestward into the night...then
take on an easterly component toward morning as the relatively
weak low level jet veers east.
Questions for convection then on Sunday more of a question.
Should be plenty of instability and even a bit of support from a
dampening short wave. However rain may be hard to come by unless
the overnight convection is able to generate an outflow boundary.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
Warming trend will continue into Monday with areas over the west
witnessing the highest heat indices of the season before heights
start to fall and a wavy weak front arrives on Tuesday. Models have
been consistent with convective development along the front Tuesday
into early Wednesday as the front slowly descends into Arkansas.
Questions continue as to how far south the front makes it into
Arkansas and scattered storms may then continue along the Arkansas
border through the end of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
VFR conditions will persist for at least the next 24 hours across
the region. Thunderstorm complex entering central Missouri will
stay north of the area this afternoon. Will be monitoring
thunderstorm development and organization later this afternoon in
northeastern Kansas. While instability is high, shear is on the
low side, as a result there will be the potential for these storms
to move southward tonight. Have gone ahead and included a PROB30
group at JLN in the event this activity moves this far to the
east. The better bet is for this activity to remain mostly in
Kansas. Future TAF updates will further refine the risk.
Otherwise, southerly winds and passing mid/high level clouds will
be common.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gagan/Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Gagan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
315 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
TEMPERATURES.
CLOUDS HAVE ABOUT MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
A FEW THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE
AND WHAT HAPPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE NAM...THE RAP AND THE HRRR
PRODUCE A LITTLE QPF/THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. WITH THE SPRINKLES THAT FORMED EARLIER BELIEVE THAT A 20
PERCENT CHANCE COULD BE A GOOD IDEA IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. NOT
EXPECTING THERE TO BE MUCH BUT A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP.
A SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. EVEN WITH THE
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
WELL INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES DURING THE DAY. AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. HAVE KEPT THE SMALL POPS IN FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE MODELS HAVE
DIFFERENCES ON THIS AS WELL. MANY OF THE MODELS ARE DRY...BUT A FEW
SHOW SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
PATTERN: IT IS LOOKING DECIDEDLY MORE SUMMERLIKE. OVERALL THE MEAN
LONGWAVE FLOW WILL FEATURE A WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WITH
SEASONABLE CHANGES IN AMPLITUDE. ONE THING IS CLEAR...WE HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO A CONSIDERABLY DRIER PATTERN. THE PATTERN THAT
BROUGHT THE VERY WET JUNE IS NO LONGER WITH US...AND ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS FCST OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL USA THRU MID-MONTH THREATEN SOME
PERSISTENCE TO THIS DRYNESS.
THE ONLY DECENT PROSPECT FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS
MON NIGHT AND EVEN THEN NOT ALL AREAS WILL GET IT.
EXPECT IRRIGATION WILL BE NECESSARY VERY SOON.
ONE THING NOTED BY THE WPC /WX PREDICTION CTR AT NWSHQ/ IS TYPHOON
NEOGURI FCST TO RECURVE IN THE WRN PACIFIC. ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND ABSORPTION INTO THE WESTERLIES COULD RESULT IN A
PATTERN RE-ADJUSTMENT AROUND MID-MONTH.
ALOFT: THE SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL HIGH HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED AND
WILL BE OVER THE SW USA THRU MID-WEEK. STORMINESS OVER THE GULF OF
AK WILL FORCE A TEMPORARY AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE INTO WRN
CANADA. THIS WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND SEND A SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO
THE CNTRL/ERN USA THIS WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED TROF WILL SLIDE THRU MON
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY CYCLONIC NW FLOW TUE-WED. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
MOVE THRU THU AHEAD OF A TROF MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC. WHILE THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THIS TROF WILL ACTUALLY STAY N OF THE BORDER...
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO EXPAND ACROSS
THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...AM NOT BUYING IT. THE PAST 2 EC/GEM/GFS
CYCLES HAVE AMPLIFY THE PATTERN WITH THE ERN USA TROF BEING CARVED
OUT AGAIN. THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE CONTROL RUN SHOWS THIS VERY NICELY
AND THIS IDEA FITS THE PATTERN.
SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT IS ADVANCING THRU THE FCST AREA SUN
AFTERNOON WILL STALL OVER NRN KS MON...AWAITING A STRONGER SECOND
FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE THRU MON NIGHT. THIS SECOND PUSH WILL FORCE
THE COMPOSITE FRONT DEEPER INTO THE SRN PLAINS. COMFORTABLE HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN TUE-WED WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING THU AS THE HIGH
HEADS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW PRES WILL CROSS WRN CANADA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AND BEGIN DRAWING THE FRONT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT
THU. FRI IT HEATS BACK UP IN THE WARM SECTOR...THEN A COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI NIGHT OR SAT.
HAZARDS: AN ISOLATED PROBABLY NON-SVR TSTM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE MON NIGHT WITH LEGIT SVR
POTENTIAL. BEYOND THAT...ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS UNORGANIZED AND
IS LOW CONFIDENCE.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
UNCERTAINTY IS WAY ABOVE AVERAGE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. AM NOT
IMPRESSED WITH THE TSTM POTENTIAL ALONG THIS FRONT. WHILE DEWPOINTS
ARE IMPRESSIVE NOW...TOMORROW`S HEAT WILL MIX OUT THESE HIGH DWPTS
WITH NO REPLENISHMENT. 12Z SOUNDINGS AROUND THE REGION THIS AM SHOW
THERE ARE REALLY NO GOOD/DEEP BANDS OF MOISTURE. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE CAP.
09Z SREF DOES SUGGEST PORTION OF THE NARROW RIBBON OF 10-12C 850 MB
DWPTS ALONG THE FRONT WILL CIRCULATE ANTICYCLONICALLY BACK INTO THE
REGION LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WAITING TO INTERCEPT THE NEXT
FRONT.
BOTTOM LINE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY MOST OF THE TIME SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. THIS FCST WOULD BETTER BE VIEWED FROM THE STANDPOINT
THAT THERE IS AN 80% CHANCE THAT TSTMS WILL NOT FORM. "IF" AN
ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO MANAGES TO DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK /10-15 KTS/. THIS SUGGESTS AT BEST NICKEL SIZE HAIL. LCL
HEIGHTS WILL BE NEAR 10K FT WHICH WOULD THREATEN WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH.
MON NIGHT: A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND
AND THE LLJ IN ADVANCE. CONSIDERABLE CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD HAVE 2000-
2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. WE DO NEED TO
WATCH POTENTIAL FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT FOR SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...
BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OF A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...EMBEDDED BOWS AND LEWP`S WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
WE HAVE NOTED THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WX AND WE ARE IN AGREEMENT.
THIS FCSTR CONTS TO SEE TUE-THU COOLER THAN WHAT MEX MOS AND EVEN
THE DAYS 4-7 INITIALIZATION HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. THIS GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY RELUCTANT TO LOWER TEMPS. BASED ON ENSEMBLE TEMP ANOMALIES
...HAVE TRENDED THE FCST HIGHS CLOSER TO THE EC/GEM 2M TEMPS WHICH
HAVE HAD A SIZABLE COOLDOWN FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
TUE: CLEARING AS MON NIGHT`S MCS DEPARTS THE REGION. HIGHS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED TO 77-86F...A LITTLE BELOW THE 4 AM GID FCST. THIS IS
ROUGHLY 8F COOLER THAN NORMAL. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF WINDY
CONDITIONS BEFORE NOON.
WED: VERY NICE. TEMPS BEGIN CREEPING UP A LITTLE...BUT STILL 4-5F
COOLER THAN NORMAL.
WED NIGHT: GOOD LLJ DEVELOPMENT WITH A BURST OF THETA-E ADVECTION.
COULD SEE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS FORM WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
THU: QUESTIONABLE. IT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY WARM FRONTAL
CLOUDINESS DEPARTS ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING EFFECTS FROM POSSIBLE
MCS DEVELOPMENT WED NIGHT. THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE A SUBSTANTIAL
TEMP GRADIENT FROM SW-NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WHILE AREAS FROM ORD-
GREELEY-FULLERTON MAY BE JAMMED IN THE 70S...AREAS FROM BEAVER CITY-
OSBORNE KS MAY BE IN THE UPPER 90S.
FRI: ANOTHER THRUST OF BIG TIME HEAT IN THE WARM SECTOR. BELIEVE
ODDS FAVOR 95-105F. LOOK FOR THIS TIME FRAME TO TREND HIGHER.
FRI NIGHT OR SAT: POSSIBLY A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
EXPECT ONLY A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TODAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. A
COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1154 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
PRODUCTS AND GRIDS WERE UPDATED EARLIER. WILL STILL HOLD ONTO SOME
LOWS POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. LATEST HRRR AND
RAP MODELS SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THERE.
OTHERWISE JUST MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO HIGHS...WINDS AND CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
ON-GOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ABOUT AS EXPECTED AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASED TO AROUND 50 KNOTS COINCIDENT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THIS
RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING IN EASTERN
COUNTIES. THE 06Z RUN OF THE RAP AND THE NAM ACTUALLY KEEP
CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THAT THE LIFT BEING
GENERATED BY THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 15Z
SUNDAY... WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS WERE
INDICATING. THE NAM PUSHES IT INTO KANSAS BY 00Z BUT THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE CLOSER TO 06Z. REGARDLESS OF EXACT TIMING...THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH VERY UNSTABLE AIR...WITH MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FACTORS AGAINST STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A CAP
AS WELL AS A LACK OF BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER WITH
LOW LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT/CONVERGENCE... A FEW STORMS
COULD REACH THE LFC AND BECOME QUITE STRONG GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO MOVE POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES.
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH POPS PLACED IN AREAS LIKELY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE TEMPERATURE/HEAT INDEX FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS COMPLICATED BY
THE FRONT AS WELL AS POTENTIAL CONVECTION. ASSUMING ANY CONVECTION
THAT WOULD DEVELOP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AND
LOOSE DEWPOINT GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT...MOST AREAS SHOULD STILL BE
ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 105 ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES IN SUNDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BY WEDNESDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVES BACK EAST... AND A SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SEE RETURN FLOW ON SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE PINNING DOWN POPS AND TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TSTM CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES FOR
NOW. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY UNDER
15 KNOTS TODAY AND UNDER 9 KNOTS TONIGHT. SOME FOR IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT BUT DID NOT MENTION FOR NOW.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE NEAR-TERM
NWS WILMINGTON NC
444 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND ANCHOR OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ALLOWING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RETURN MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
GRADUALLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PIEDMONT AND SAND
HILLS OF THE CAROLINAS...WILL LED TO AN INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK...MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT BY JULY
STANDARDS...WITH MOST PLACES ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. THESE
DEVIATIONS MAY BE A BIT SMALLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THERE
WILL BE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED BELOW
ABOUT 7KFT AND THE EXTENT OF OUR CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAINTAINED OR
EVEN INCREASE. THE LATTER SEEMS MORE LIKELY AS THE OFFSHORE
BOUNDARY WILL BE MAINTAINED BY THE MID LEVEL ENERGY TRAVERSING IT.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH TO OUR
NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...ANOTHER DAY WITH RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY
WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY BEFORE THE CANADIAN HIGH MIGRATES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY THAN SUNDAY
DUE TO VEERING WINDS AND THE USHERING OF A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME AIR-MASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. ON AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPS MONDAY
LOOKS TO PAN OUT 4-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER GA/SC MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR VERY SOUTHERN COAST
AND COASTAL INTERIOR TO NEAR CAPE FEAR SUNDAY. DRY AIR ALOFT OVER
THE REGION WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF EXPECTED PCPN
AND CELL COVERAGE...AND ONLY ISOLATED POP VALUES WILL BE
ADVERTISED FOR THE SC ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY DRY AND QUIET START
TO THE PERIOD AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S INLAND/LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. PATTERN BEGINS TO
CHANGE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS WITH THE AID OF A HIGH PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST . TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS AND FIZZLES WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...OR IF IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA AND STALLS.
OVERALL...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP WITH A NON-FRONTAL PASSAGE
EVENT...BUT RATHER HAVING IT STALL/FALL JUST SHORT TO OUR WEST. WITH
THAT SAID...HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER/POPS AND KEPT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS MOISTURE
INCREASES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES OR
SLIGHTLY MORE. AS FOR TEMPS WE WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.
THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE ENE-ESE WITH SPEEDS SLOWLY DECREASING
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E JUST TO THE N OF THE
TERMINALS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...SO OTHER THAN A FEW AFTN CU...AND SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CLOUD COVER. E WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE TO E-NE AROUND 5 KTS THIS EVENING.
SUNDAY MORNING WINDS WILL BE E-SE AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 440 PM SATURDAY...I HAVE UPDATED THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH STRONGER SPEEDS THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE
FORECAST. SUSTAINED WINDS ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MYRTLE BEACH AND GEORGETOWN ARE 15-20 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 22 KNOTS RECENTLY REPORTED AT SPRINGMAID PIER IN MYRTLE
BEACH. 12Z AND 18Z GFS AND NAM PLUS THE RECENT HRRR RUNS CAPTURE
TRENDS WELL AND ARE THE BASIS FOR THIS UPDATE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SEAS HAVE ALSO BEEN BUMPED
UP...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 0-5 MILES OF THE COAST WHERE FORECAST
MODIFICATIONS ON THE ORDER OF +2 TO +3 FEET HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THE
STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. SEAS FARTHER FROM SHORE (10-20 MILES) ARE
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...ONSHORE ENE-E WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL
RESULT IN BUMPY 3-4 FOOT SEAS FOR THE MOST PART...BUT AS WINDS GO
SE AND S INTO AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SEAS WILL LIKELY DROP
ANOTHER FOOT OR SO. SO WHILE NOT IDEAL CONDITIONS...NO ADVISORIES
OR EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED. NO TSTMS EXPECTED
ON THE 0-20NM WATERS BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY DOT AREAS AROUND WINYAH
BAY. THE MAJORITY OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ARRIVING FROM E AND SE
AND A MODERATE CHOP FROM THE S-SW IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS NEAR 20 KT. AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTS
TO NEAR 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH AFTERNOON. WITH
MAINLY WIND DRIVEN WIND WAVES...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 4 FT WITH 5 FTERS POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN AMZ-252 AND AMZ-250. INTO THURSDAY...SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MBB/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...MRR/MBB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HRRR IS ONCE AGAIN PERFORMING MORE
FAVORABLY THAN RAP AS IT RELATES TO CURRENT CONVECTION...SO WILL
FOLLOW ITS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS AND THEN
TRANSITION TO A GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE.
SFC TROUGH REFUSES TO BUDGE WITH A DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR
THE ND/MN/MB BORDER. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION FROM DEVILS LAKE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY RESULTING
IN A DRIER OVERALL AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH SFC BASED CAPE IS STILL
ABOVE 2000 J/KG. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NORTHWEST MN IN UNCAPPED
MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAREST THE SFC LOW. FORCING IS
STILL RATHER WEAK...BUT ONE SEVERE STORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER
WINNIPEG AND IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. A COUPLE OTHER SMALL
CELLS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE SFC WIND SHIFT JUST NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND IN KITTSON COUNTY. ISOLATED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
HIGH INSTABILITY. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS
EVENING WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S.
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA. INCREASING SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH MUCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHWEST MN. HRRR PLACES THIS LINE ALONG THE
VALLEY FLOOR BY 06 UTC. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MN ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPS/DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER
RESULTING IN LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AT
TIMES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST MON/TUES WITH THE NEXT PRIMARY
WAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW
DEEP NEXT 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE OVER ONTARIO AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. EITHER WAY FCST REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH EXITING SHORT WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE
FOR WED-EARLY THU. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT US LATE
THU-FRI. DIDNT STRAY FROM ALL BLEND TEMPS NOR POPS MUCH. OVERALL
TEMP REGIME AFTER THIS WEEKEND FAVORS A RETURN TO JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT/TIMING REMAIN AT LOW CONFIDENCE
AND THUS CONTINUED TO USE VCTS IN TIME PERIODS WHEN BEST CHANCE
WILL BE. WEAK TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE RRV LATE AFTN/EVE WILL
GIVE A LIGHT WIND TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST...BUT A MORE
DEFINITE NORTHWEST WIND TAKING SHAPE AFTER 12Z SUN IN ERN ND/RRV.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
223 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
HOT SUMMER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THERE WILL BE LOW RAIN CHANCES AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WIDESPREAD RAINS REMAIN UNLIKELY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 9 PM
THIS EVENING NEAR AND ALONG AN ENHANCED AREA OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF I-35 WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES AND MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE
TO NO CIN. LATEST HRRR RUNS DEPICTED THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR
NOW...DID NOT INCLUDE RAIN IN THE FORECAST AS COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 10 PERCENT. ANY SHOWER OR STORM WOULD BE PULSE IN
NATURE...MOVE VERY SLOWLY...AND PERHAPS PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS AND DOWNPOURS. NOT SURE THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE DUE TO THE
LACK OF LIFT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET.
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR A WEAK
MID/UPPER TROUGH MAY MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AFTER 7 PM. WITHOUT A
STRONG TRIGGER FOR LIFT...LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TO 10 PERCENT AND
WENT WITH ISOLATED MENTION NORTH OF A CHEYENNE TO BLACKWELL LINE.
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
POORLY ORGANIZED STORMS AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN.
LATE TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME INDICATION WEAK ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR NORTH OF A VERNON TEXAS TO ADA LINE...BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION AS CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE A BIT HOTTER COMPARED TO TODAY
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN. STORM CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO
MENTION. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 95 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE BOTH DAYS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...REACHING NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY. ADDED LOW RAIN
CHANCES...AROUND 20 PERCENT...TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR
THE FRONT...THEN KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD
RAINS OR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH
A FEW STORMS MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND RAINFREE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 94 72 96 / 10 10 10 0
HOBART OK 71 97 71 101 / 10 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 97 73 99 / 10 10 10 0
GAGE OK 71 97 71 100 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 96 74 99 / 10 10 0 0
DURANT OK 71 94 73 97 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN BR/HZ MAY OCCUR 10-14Z...BUT DID
NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
TS COVERAGE/CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION.
NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH
OF A KFDR-KLAW-KOUN 01-15Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TEMPS/PRECIP/WX...
DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE STEADILY CLIMBING
THROUGH THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS WRN
OK/WRN N TX... TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS CENTRAL OK.
FOR THE LATE AFTN/EVENING... CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEAK CU
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN OK... WELL AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS WRN KS INTO NERN NM. KEPT PRECIP/WX FORECAST
RELATIVELY THE SAME FROM THE NIGHT SHIFT... AS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY. RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM KWWR/KGAG
PLACE THE CONVECTIVE TEMP SOMEWHERE NEAR 100... WHICH IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME LOCATIONS ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
OK/TX PH... BUT INITIATION WILL STILL BE A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE
WEAKLY FORCED AND MODEST SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WITH THAT SAID... ANY
UPDRAFT THAT IS ABLE TO GO WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS... GIVEN TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE LOW LEVELS...
AND LL LAPSE RATES IN THE 9-10.5 C/KM RANGE.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED STORM WORDING IN FORECAST FOR MAINLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...IN
PROXIMITY TO S/WV TROUGH THAT WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
NEXT MENTIONABLE POPS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SURFACE FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA...DRIVEN BY DAILY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND FLOW THROUGH BASE OF GREAT LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER BASINS. GREATEST CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE
RAIN TOTALS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND EAST EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...BUT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF
THE PICTURE ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM TODAY INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASE IN CLOUD POTENTIAL AND
FRONT/OUTFLOWS COMPLICATING MID-WEEK TEMP FORECASTS. CONSENSUS
APPROACH TO GRIDDED FORECAST TAKES THIS INTO ACCOUNT. THIS KEEPS
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF ANTICIPATED FRONT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND
OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK.
DEWPOINT VALUES ARE NOT PROGD TO BE EXCESSIVE SO MOST AREAS WILL
SEE HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO DRY BULB READINGS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 92 72 93 72 / 0 10 10 10
HOBART OK 95 70 96 71 / 0 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 94 72 97 73 / 0 10 10 10
GAGE OK 94 70 97 71 / 10 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 92 74 96 74 / 0 10 10 0
DURANT OK 89 71 94 73 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/17/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TEMPS/PRECIP/WX...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE STEADILY CLIMBING
THROUGH THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS WRN
OK/WRN N TX... TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS CENTRAL OK.
FOR THE LATE AFTN/EVENING... CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEAK CU
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN OK... WELL AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS WRN KS INTO NERN NM. KEPT PRECIP/WX FORECAST
RELATIVELY THE SAME FROM THE NIGHT SHIFT... AS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY. RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM KWWR/KGAG
PLACE THE CONVECTIVE TEMP SOMEWHERE NEAR 100... WHICH IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME LOCATIONS ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
OK/TX PH... BUT INITIATION WILL STILL BE A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE
WEAKLY FORCED AND MODEST SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WITH THAT SAID... ANY
UPDRAFT THAT IS ABLE TO GO WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS... GIVEN TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE LOW LEVELS...
AND LL LAPSE RATES IN THE 9-10.5 C/KM RANGE.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED STORM WORDING IN FORECAST FOR MAINLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...IN
PROXIMITY TO S/WV TROUGH THAT WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
NEXT MENTIONABLE POPS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SURFACE FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA...DRIVEN BY DAILY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND FLOW THROUGH BASE OF GREAT LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER BASINS. GREATEST CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE
RAIN TOTALS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND EAST EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...BUT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF
THE PICTURE ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM TODAY INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASE IN CLOUD POTENTIAL AND
FRONT/OUTFLOWS COMPLICATING MID-WEEK TEMP FORECASTS. CONSENSUS
APPROACH TO GRIDDED FORECAST TAKES THIS INTO ACCOUNT. THIS KEEPS
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF ANTICIPATED FRONT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND
OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK.
DEWPOINT VALUES ARE NOT PROGD TO BE EXCESSIVE SO MOST AREAS WILL
SEE HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO DRY BULB READINGS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 93 72 96 / 10 10 10 0
HOBART OK 70 96 71 100 / 10 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 97 73 98 / 10 10 10 0
GAGE OK 70 97 71 99 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 96 74 99 / 10 10 0 0
DURANT OK 71 94 73 97 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
347 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)
Cumulus development was more extensive over West Central Texas than
yesterday. While the 17Z HRRR model reflectivity did indicated
isolated shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon, cumulus
at 3 PM had limited vertical extent, and expect dry conditions this
evening.
Dry conditions continue Sunday as upper ridging holds over the
region. Will maintain a persistence forecast, with lows in the lower
70s and highs in the mid 90s.
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Warm and dry conditions will continue across West Central Texas
through next week. The center of the upper high will remain over the
four corners region through midweek, then flatten and expand east
across the Southern Plains through next Saturday. Models still show a
weak TUTT moving into extreme south Texas and far northeastern Mexico
by Wednesday. This feature will remain nearly stationary across this
area through Thursday, then drift slowly west across Northern Mexico
by early next weekend. About the only noticeable effect from the
TUTT will be an increase in some diurnal cumulus by mid to late
week. Temperatures through the extended period will remain at or
slightly above seasonal normals for this time of year.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 72 94 71 96 72 / 5 5 5 5 5
San Angelo 72 95 69 96 72 / 5 5 5 5 5
Junction 69 94 70 95 70 / 5 5 5 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.AVIATION...
EXPANDING CU FIELD AT 17Z STRETCHES FROM ROUGHLY GLS TO IAH TO CLOSE
TO UTS. SOME SHRA/TSRA ARE DEVELOPING IN AND AROUND THE AREA OF DEEPEST
MOISTURE NEAR THE COAST...AROUND THE GLS AND LBX AREAS. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM OFFSHORE CONVECTION IS MOVING INLAND ALONG THE COAST
NEAR THE GLS AREA. AS HEATING CONTINUES...THINK WE WILL SEE MORE
DEVELOPMENT AS BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER. FOR NOW...WILL
CARRY VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE LBX AND HOU AND SGR SITES AND MONITOR
HOW THINGS PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO EXPAND MORE WESTWARD THAN NORTHWARD...BUT WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED IF SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN AND
AROUND THE IAH AND POSSIBLY THE CXO SITES. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR HAS TRIED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH VERY MOIST PWAT AIR REMAINING ACROSS
THE HOUSTON AREA. HIGH RES HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF BOTH SHOW
COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES
TOWARDS OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. AT 500 MB VERY WEAK RIDGING
REMAINS OVERHEAD WHICH SUPPORTS THE HIGH RES MODELS IN DEVELOPING
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT 12Z SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEAL FAIRLY
DEEP MOISTURE AT KCRP (PWAT 1.87"). FORECAST PACKAGE HAS THIS
COVERED. NO UPDATE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. 23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO NE/N PARTS
OF THE REGION AND GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY CONFIRMS. STILL HAVE
RESPECTABLE MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THE AREA AND WILL
GEAR HIGHER POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-10 AND WEST OF I-45 TODAY.
SEVERAL OUTFLOWS SEEN OFF THE UPPER COAST AND DISTINCT LANDBREEZE
IS SETTING UP CONVERGENT ZONE SO WE COULD SEE SOME SCT ACTIVITY
DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINLY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
WEEK WITH SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF TO THE EAST. FURTHER ALOFT SE
TX WILL REMAIN IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS BETWEEN RIDGES. COMBINATION OF
BOTH SHOULD PROVIDE SOMEWHAT NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. SEABREEZE WILL
BE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ISO/SCT PRECIP EACH DAY WITH
OVERALL COVERAGE DEPENDENT ON SLIGHT VARIATIONS ON AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. 47
MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THIS FCST OF DIURNAL LANDBREEZE/SEABREEZE
CIRCULATIONS THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH LINGERS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S.. AS THE HIGH EDGES EAST...WE SHOULD SEE SLOWLY IN-
CREASING ONSHORE WINDS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THESE LIGHT/MOD-
ERATE SELY WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. 41
AVIATION...
AN ABUNDANCE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS HELPING
TO PRODUCE SOME SCT PCPN THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP THINGS QUIET FOR MOST OF OUR SITES THIS MORNING
(EXCEPT MAYBE GLS). HOWEVER SOME OF THE SHORT-TERM PROGS ARE SHOWING
AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE FOR THE SWRN PARTS OF THE REGION (WHERE MOISTURE
AND INFLOW ARE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE). AS SUCH MAY HAVE TO RECONSIDER
REINTRODUCING VCSH/VCTS FOR LBX/SGR THIS AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE VFR FOR
THE REST OF TODAY. 41
CLIMATE...
RAINFALL HAS NOW BEEN RECORDED IN HOUSTON ON JULY 4TH IN 11 OF
THE PAST 15 YEARS...AND 59 OF THE PAST 126. THE 0.48" RECORDED
YESTERDAY NEARLY MOVED IT INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST (5TH PLACE IS
0.51" SET IN 1898). 47
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 92 72 93 73 93 / 20 10 20 10 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 72 92 73 92 / 30 10 30 10 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 78 89 79 89 / 30 20 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1237 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT FIRED UP OVER NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
PER THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW CONTINUES ON A EAST-SOUTHEAST
TRACK...STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SO HAVE BEEN LOWERING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IN FACT...ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAY
RIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ENDS UP DRY AS THE TRENDS IN THE
05.12Z RAP...HRRR AND NAM SUGGEST. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A CAP
BUILDING INTO THE AREA AT 750MB THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...AIDING IN THAT DRY FORECAST.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION INSTIGATOR IS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH NORTHERN MN SEEN ON WATER VAPOR. PERHAPS THIS SHORTWAVE
COULD KICK SOMETHING OFF NORTH OF I-94 THIS AFTERNOON...OR IT MAY
END UP BEING COMPLETELY NORTH OF MY CWA AS MOST OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST. THUS...MAY NEED TO DO SOME REALIGNING OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO FOCUS THEM MORE UP TOWARDS TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING VERSUS FARTHER SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN CHANCES BOTH THIS MORNING...
AND AGAIN TONIGHT. 07Z RADAR LOOPS SHOW SOME SHOWERS/TSRA ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN AND NORTH CENTRAL IA. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO DRIER AIR. BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHERE A LARGER COMPLEX IS
GETTING FIRED UP OVER NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN ASSISTING
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL HAVE VARIED OPINIONS
ON HOW THE RAIN IS GOING TO PAN OUT TODAY BUT THE GENERAL THINKING
IS THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. COULD BE SOME ACTION THAT SURVIVES SO
MAY HAVE TO CARRY SOME SMALL CHANCES. LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN THE
RAIN THREAT THEN FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT
SENDS SOME WEAK IMPULSES INTO NORTHERN WI BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD HELP GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO
NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT CERTAIN IF THIS WILL MAKE IT INTO
NORTH CENTRAL WI BY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A
SHORT WAVE IN THE INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT RIGHT DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME. WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE IN
THE 3-4K J/KG RANGE WITH AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION OF STORMS
THAT SHOULD FIRE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY...CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A COUPLE MORE SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOK TO
RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW IS GRADUALLY BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO
THE TAF SITES. AN MVFR DECK HAS BEEN MANIFESTING ITSELF ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND SHOULD SPREAD INTO RST BY 20Z. BELIEVE THE
AID OF THE VALLEY AT LSE WILL HELP KEEP CEILINGS THERE VFR FOR THE
AFTERNOON. WITH LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT AND PERSISTENT MOISTURE
FLOWING INTO THE REGION...ANTICIPATING CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RST TO GO IFR AT LEAST FOR
A TIME BETWEEN 07-10Z. VISIBILITIES ALSO LIKELY TO GO DOWN TO MVFR
BY LATE EVENING. BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD GO VFR BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.
LOOKING AHEAD...A BAND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 20-22Z...THEN QUICKLY DROP
SOUTHEAST. HARD TO SAY IF THE TAF SITES WILL BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED
AT THIS TIME...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THESE TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO MUCH LOWER VISIBILITIES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO RUN HIGH...BUT THE RIVER IS NOW
PAST CREST EVERYWHERE IN OUR SERVICE AREA. OTHER TRIBUTARY CREEKS
AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE BACK TOWARD A MORE NORMAL BASE FLOW.
SOME CONCERN ON WHAT THE RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY WILL DO TO RIVER
LEVELS...BUT ANY STORMS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE AS THE
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD RENEWED FLOOD RISK.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...MW