Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/05/14


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST FRI JUL 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER COCHISE..GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FW WIND GUSTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREAFTER...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...A WIDE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER COCHISE...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. FOR TOMORROW...MUCH OF OUR PRECIP COVERAGE AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON THE REMNANT DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS EVENING. AS WE WITNESSED TODAY...THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER PREVENTED THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THAT THE MODELS HINTED AT. THE WRF HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS ACTIVITY TOMORROW...WHICH MAKES SENSE IF WE MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY AND LIMIT HEATING. ALTHOUGH I ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVER PIMA...PINAL AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO THE LAST FEW IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING SOME CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN PIMA COUNTY...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. THE WRF HINTS AT THE BEST CONVECTION POTENTIAL OVER PIMA COUNTY TOMORROW...WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE GIVEN OUR EXPECTED CLEARING SKIES TO ALLOW PLENTY OF HEATING TOMORROW. JJB && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 08/00Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA WILL RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH +TSRA...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 50 KTS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL BE AROUND 8-15K FT AGL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAPPEN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .PREV DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING GENERALLY SE OF A HANNAGAN MEADOW-SAFFORD-VAIL-TUBAC LINE AT THIS TIME. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ACROSS SE PINAL COUNTY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS AT THIS TIME WERE ADJACENT MOUNTAINS. THE MID- LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL FAVOR STORM MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST INTO THIS EVENING. THE RUC HRRR HAS HANDLED THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY QUITE WELL DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS. AT ANY RATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY LESSER POPS ARE DEPICTED ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY RELATIVE TO ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AFTERNOON/ EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY NEAR MOUNTAINS LATE SAT NIGHT SUN MORNING. 04/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING DEEPER MOISTURE TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN SECTIONS SUN. THUS...HAVE CONFIGURED CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR LOCALES EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON WWD/NWWD. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN MON-TUE. MEANWHILE...GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING AN INVERTED TROUGH/WEAK UPPER LOW TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST SCENARIOS OF INCREASING POPS MON-TUE IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS SE AZ WED AFTERNOON/ EVENING. A SOMEWHAT DRIER REGIME MAY ENCROACH UPON THE AREA THUR-FRI... ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS. GFS/ECMWF SHUNTED THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE EWD INTO WRN NEW MEXICO. THE ECMWF WAS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS DRIER SCENARIO VERSUS THE GFS. SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...AM NOT YET INCLINED TO BELIEVE THESE SOLUTIONS FULLY...AT LEAST AT THIS TIME. THUS...HAVE OPTED FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THUR-FRI...WITH LESSER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ TSTMS FROM TUCSON WWD/NWWD. ASIDE FROM SOME WARMING SUN-MON... DAYTIME TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
815 PM MST FRI JUL 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITIES...AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY. && .DISCUSSION... A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WAVE SEEN IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WAS SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTH ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ALOFT. 00Z SOUNDING DATA CONTINUED TO SAMPLE A MOSTLY CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED ATMOSPHERE WITH PALTRY MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES (8-10 G/KG WELL MIXED MOISTURE). THIS COMBINATION OF MEAGER MLCAPE...NOTABLE CINH...AND PROXIMITY WITHIN THE UPSTREAM SUBSIDENCE AREA OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE HAS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE FORECAST AREA. OUTFLOW HAS NOT BEEN ORGANIZED IN THE FACE OF LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION...AND IR CLOUD TOP AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST ACTIVITY QUICKLY WANING ALREADY THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE MADE ANOTHER CUT INTO POP VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...PORTRAYING A PRIMARILY DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /315 PM MST FRI JUL 4 2014/ THE PREFERENCE AGAIN IS CLEARLY TOWARDS THE HRRR WHICH HAS CAPTURED THE CURRENT CONDITIONS WELL. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CIN ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS DUE TO THE DELAYED INSOLATION. GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW PARALLEL TO THE MOGOLLON RIM...CONVECTION ALONG THE RIM IS SHOWING LITTLE TENDENCY TO PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHICH ESSENTIALLY LEAVES CENTRAL AZ IN A LESS FAVORED AREA. NEVERTHELESS...CONDITIONS REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER DESERTS AS FAR WEST AS SE CA...INCLUDING YUMA. MAIN THREATS REMAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST. ACTIVE PATTERN FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL...WITH VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL PWATS EACH AFTERNOON AND MLCAPES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. MUCH OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DICTATED BY WHERE AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY /LINGERING BOUNDARIES...HOW WORKED OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS...ETC.../ SO I WILL KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHED APPROACH TO THE POPS AND KEEP THEM WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK HOWEVER THE ONLY DAY TO FEATURE ANY SORT OF NOTEWORTHY INVERTED TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IS TUESDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES OR IF THIS IS JUST CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BEING ADVECTED WITH THE MEAN FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A CLIMO-LIKE APPEARANCE TO THE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGHLIGHTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE THAT OCCURRED THIS EVENING...I WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY...ONLY TOPPING OUT JUST ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK. AS PWATS CHANGE LITTLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH THE IDEA OF HIGHS AROUND 102-105 EACH AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...EVENING CLOUD COVER AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN SOME RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE LOWS IN THE UPPER 80S OR EVEN LOWER 90S. OF COURSE OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT BUT WILL STICK WITH THE IDEA OF VERY WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL... WITH VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ONLY PERIODIC SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER (ABOVE 10K FT) WILL DRIFT OVER AERODROMES. SFC WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF OUTFLOW PUSH DOWN INTO THE VALLEY. TIMING OF THIS WIND SHIFT CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE...THOUGH WEAK SPEEDS SHOULD LIMIT ANY IMPACTS. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE REGION WITH NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SFC WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MAY BECOME PERIODICALLY VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT WITH OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRIFTING THROUGH THE REGION. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ELEVATED STORM CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT EVEN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS COULD SEE WETTING RAINS. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES DURING THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM INDUCED OUTFLOWS... WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AND SHOULD FOLLOW THE USUAL UPSLOPE DRAINAGE PATTERNS. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...MO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH/LEINS AVIATION...MO FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
920 AM MST THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXISTS...AND BLOWING DUST MAY HAPPEN WEST TO NORTHWEST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER... SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS SE AZ WITH 03/12Z KTWC TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.30 INCHES...NEARLY 0.40 INCH HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW HAS ALSO INCREASED AND BECOME MORE ELY VERSUS WED MORNING. 03/13Z RUC HRRR AND 03/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM QUITE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO FIRST OCCUR JUST SOUTH OF TUCSON BY ABOUT 19Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RUC HRRR AND U OF AZ WRF-NAM COMP REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES AND 10 M WINDS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST AREA FOR WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST SHOULD BE ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...THEN WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN TUCSON AND PHOENIX. A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY WILL BE FORTHCOMING FOR THIS SCENARIO. POPS WILL BE INCREASED FOR WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS PROGGED TO MOVE WEST-TO-NORTHWEST OF THIS FORECAST AREA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-WIDE LATE TONIGHT. A SIMILAR SCENARIO MAY OCCUR FRI...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAIL WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE IDENTICAL. THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SELY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER NWRN NEW MEXICO. VARIOUS NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI WOULD BE ACROSS WRN SECTIONS...WITH SOME DRYING ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS INTO SWRN NEW MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ TSTMS WILL OCCUR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING FOLLOWED BY DECREASING COVERAGE LATE FRI NIGHT. THEREAFTER...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS INTO THE SRN CONUS PLAINS SAT-WED. THERE SHOULD BE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOISTURE ACROSS SE AZ THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO CLEAR DISTINCTION REGARDING ENHANCED CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS VERSUS LESSER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. THUS...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON/ EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON...WITH GENERALLY LESSER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON WWD/NWWD. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/18Z. TSRA/SHRA TO DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF KTUS BY AROUND 19Z TODAY... THEN SCT-NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR VISIBILITIES TO OCCUR WITH +TSRA...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 45 KTS. TSRA/SHRA COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL BE AROUND 10-15K FT AGL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER.... ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
445 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 437 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER OUR NRN ZONES THIS AFTN SO BUMPED UP POPS IN THAT AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST THINKING AS CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIE DOWN AS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 MOISTURE IS BEING WRAPPED UP IN COUNTERCLOCKWISE FLOW UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THOUGH DECREASING IN COVERAGE AFTER 8PM DUE TO INCREASING STABILITY WITH SFC COOLING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE LATE IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE AREA OF CONVECTION WELL TODAY AND PROJECTS MOISTURE TO WRAP BACK AROUND FROM THE EAST AFTER 6PM IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN REGION BUT DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL WITH 0.75 INCH PWATS REMAINING UNDER THE RIDGE...MEDIOCRE 40KT DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND INCREASED SUNSHINE DUE TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...DUE TO A LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING AND STEERING...STORM CELLS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NOT DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS. THE SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORED AS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THIS REGION. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK FOR CONTINUED HOT TEMPS. MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NORTH OVER UT/WRN CO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE POOLING OVER SRN AZ/SRN NM/NWRN MEXICO TO GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTHWARD...WHILE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH. DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY SMALL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MOST AFTERNOONS IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION. STORM COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL...TO SCATTERED OVER THE SAN JUANS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 0.5 TO 0.65 INCH THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN UTAH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE BIGGEST THREAT. KTEX AND KDRO ARE THE MOST FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGIONAL TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET IN MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN REGION INCLUDING KDRO. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CO ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONCENTRATED OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS SO FAR TODAY BUT WILL DRIFT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FWX ZONE 207 LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. STORMS WERE MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND...STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MIX OF WET AND DRY. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE DRYING POTENTIAL HIGH. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ207-290>293. UT...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TGR SHORT TERM...JAM LONG TERM...JAD AVIATION...JAM FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
331 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 MOISTURE IS BEING WRAPPED UP IN COUNTERCLOCKWISE FLOW UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THOUGH DECREASING IN COVERAGE AFTER 8PM DUE TO INCREASING STABILITY WITH SFC COOLING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE LATE IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE AREA OF CONVECTION WELL TODAY AND PROJECTS MOISTURE TO WRAP BACK AROUND FROM THE EAST AFTER 6PM IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN REGION BUT DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL WITH 0.75 INCH PWATS REMAINING UNDER THE RIDGE...MEDIOCRE 40KT DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND INCREASED SUNSHINE DUE TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...DUE TO A LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING AND STEERING...STORM CELLS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NOT DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS. THE SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORED AS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THIS REGION. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK FOR CONTINUED HOT TEMPS. MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NORTH OVER UT/WRN CO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE POOLING OVER SRN AZ/SRN NM/NWRN MEXICO TO GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTHWARD...WHILE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH. DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY SMALL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MOST AFTERNOONS IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION. STORM COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL...TO SCATTERED OVER THE SAN JUANS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 0.5 TO 0.65 INCH THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN UTAH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE BIGGEST THREAT. KTEX AND KDRO ARE THE MOST FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGIONAL TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET IN MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN REGION INCLUDING KDRO. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CO ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONCENTRATED OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS SO FAR TODAY BUT WILL DRIFT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FWX ZONE 207 LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. STORMS WERE MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND...STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MIX OF WET AND DRY. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE DRYING POTENTIAL HIGH. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ207-290>293. UT...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAM LONG TERM...JAD AVIATION...JAM FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1025 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TO START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA. THE SYSTEM`S ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1024 PM EDT...TC ARTHUR IS SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AND IS RAPIDLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE STORM IS STARTING TO BECOME EXTRA TROPICAL...AS THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE STORM IS BECOMING ASYMMETRIC AND DRIER AIR IS ROTATING INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CIRRUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOW EAST OF OUR ENTIRE AREA. A COASTAL FRONTAL THAT HAD BEEN PRODUCING SOME EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND IS ALSO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA...AND STEADY RAIN IS WELL AWAY FROM OUR AREA. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SITUATED TO OUR WEST OVER CENTRAL NY. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS ARE DRY...THIS TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THE 3KM HRRR MODEL DOES SHOW SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT WITH THE DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND LACK OF MOISTURE...IT SEEMS IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH AROUND. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO...OTHERWISE...SOME SCT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. BY LATE TONIGHT...EVERYWHERE SHOULD BE CLEAR...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NOTICEABLY LOWER. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT BREEZE DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE DEPARTING TC AND THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH...SO NO RADIATIONAL FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ALSO...REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY JULY 3RD...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN CONFIRMED IN HERKIMER AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WITH THE DETAILS HAS BEEN POSTED TO OUR WEB PAGE UNDER NEWS HEADLINES. ALSO A MAP OF HAS BEEN POSTED TO OUR FACEBOOK PAGE AND TWEETED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... LOOKING AT A DRY WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE START THE NEW WORK WORK. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE ALOFT THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. ON SATURDAY...DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE 40S...HOWEVER IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTING UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL BE COMFORTABLE ON SUNDAY WITH DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE 60S. A POTENT SHORT WAVE DIVING OUT OF CANADA WILL BEGIN TO RETURN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BACK TO THE REGION. A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FAST FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE ON MONDAY INTRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ANOTHER ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL PRECEDE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME PERIOD. IT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND WARM AND HUMID ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT/S EVEN POSSIBLE THAT THE FRONT WINDS UP STALLING CLOSE TO OUR REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL AS IT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING. PWATS LOOK TO SURGE TO 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SO THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS LOOK POSSIBLE. IT/S TOUGH TO ADDRESS YET THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO LOOK MUGGY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S...AND DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO REACH IN THE 80S. EVENTUALLY...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR IT TO BE A LITTLE LESS HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING DOWN IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLY WARM IN THE 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF TC ARTHUR AND A COASTAL FRONT ARE DIMINISHING...AS THESE FEATURE ARE MOVING EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A LIGHT N-NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF ANY FOG TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DURING DAYTIME MIXING...NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TO START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. IT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COVER TO 85 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH MINIMUMS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEY WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MINIMUMS IN THE 30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ARE CRESTING OR HAVE RECENTLY CRESTED. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TO START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA. THE SYSTEM`S ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...FRUGIS AVIATION...FRUGIS FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
447 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PASS BY TO OUR EAST ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...PULLING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AS LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #391 NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 12 AM EDT FRIDAY MORNING... AS OF 445 PM EDT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED ACROSS THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THAT YIELDED SBCAPE AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TREKKING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK. A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAS ALSO HELPED PROMOTE DYNAMIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6KM LAYER ARE APPROACHING 50 KNOTS...WHICH HAS ENABLED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...LIKELY AIDED BY LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS. WHILE ADDITIONAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE SHEAR VALUES...THE SHEAR VECTORS THEMSELVES ARE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT SO DOMINANT STORM MODE SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO LINEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY SUPERCELL THAT DOES FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. PLEASE MONITOR OUR WEBPAGE AND SOCIAL MEDIA PAGES FOR THE LATEST REGARDING THIS EVOLVING SITUATION. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WHICH WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNALS OF A QLCS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MUCH OF THE SHEAR IS CONCENTRATED IN THE 2-4KM LAYER...WHICH COULD FURTHER ENHANCE ANY COLD POOLS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM THE STORMS DUE TO NONHYDROSTATIC EFFECTS. COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE VALUES...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A LONG DURATION WIND EVENT ACROSS THE REGION. FURTHER EXACERBATING ISSUES IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM THE CONVECTION YESTERDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-3+ INCHES ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 14 KFT AND PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-2.00 INCHES...EXTREMELY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE FAVORED WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUND AND THE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...STALLING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE PEAKED ACROSS THE REGION...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HURRICANE ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...HAVING NO EFFECTS TO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS AN AREA STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEW JERSEY TO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS REGION OF CONVERGENCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT STALLS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HELPING TO STEER HURRICANE ARTHUR OFFSHORE. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS A QUASI-PRE SETUP...ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO ASCERN. REGARDLESS...A PERIOD OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND POSSIBLY NORTHWARD INTO ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL APPEARS THAT IT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL RACE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...DRAGGING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR BEHIND IT ACROSS THE REGION. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER AND DECREASING CLOUDS TO END INDEPENDENCE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR GORGEOUS AND DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...GENERALLY IN THE 70S. HIGHS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE TYPICAL WEATHER FOR EARLY JULY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL AS EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC AND A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE HAVE A CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS MONDAY WHEN HEATING IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THEN...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN A FEW ROGUE SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THE BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN LATE AFTERNOON AND MID EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AS ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF TSRA MOVES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY TSRA. CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION TSRA WITH IFR IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A POTENTIAL SOLID LINE OF TSRA WITH DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS SWEEPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 22Z-02Z. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY KPSF/KPOU AFTER 12Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH AND LARGE HAIL ONE INCH OR GREATER IN DIAMETER...WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ENTIRE REGION IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...LAST TO DO SO SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE DAY WILL START OUT DAMP AND MURKY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE...AND EVEN SOME LEFTOVER STEADY RAIN WELL SOUTH EAST OF ALBANY. WITH TIME...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD MIX AND RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 50 PERCENT EVEN AS A BREEZE KICKS FROM THE NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH. THAT BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE IN MANY PLACES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SKY CLEARS. SATURDAY WILL BE A MUCH DRIER DAY WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. RH VALUES BY AFTERNOON LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 30S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY TOO WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE REGION...AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 1-2 INCHES. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WELL OVER 2 INCHES...IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AS PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES. THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA AS WELL. COMBINED WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE CONVECTION YESTERDAY...FLASH FLOODING AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. OUR PROJECTED AVERAGE RIVER BASIN RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY ONLY CAUSE SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT SOME OF THE STAGES COULD REACH "ACTION STAGE" ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD TAKE PLACE OVER A CRITICAL BASIN AREA. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY RIVER FLOODING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOWS TO RECEDE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033- 038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025. VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IRL NEAR TERM...IRL SHORT TERM...IRL LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/IRL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
233 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PASS BY TO OUR EAST ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...PULLING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AS LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #391 NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 12 AM EDT FRIDAY MORNING... AS OF 145 PM EDT...CONTINUING TO MONITOR DESTABILIZATION TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOW SPAWNING A NICE CU FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT IS NOW FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...SBCAPE AND MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG SHOULD EASILY BE REACHED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...PROVIDING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SYNOPTICALLY A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE WITH INCREASING INTENSITY AHEAD OF IT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP TO FURTHER INCREASE DYNAMIC LIFT AMIDST CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH...OR MORE OF A DIABATIC HEATING BOUNDARY...LOCATED EAST OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. IT IS HERE WHERE MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF SIGNAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN 17Z-19Z. EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ALREADY ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH NOW A 30% CONTOUR FOR WIND FROM INTERSTATE 90 AND LOCATIONS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST ONLY AROUND 6.0 C/KM...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR HAIL. REGARDLESS...TALL AND ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE STILL EXPECTED AS BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6KM LAYER ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 40-50 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS STORM ORGANIZATION. EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT TO BE FROM STRAIGHT- LINE WINDS AS THE SHEAR VECTORS ARE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A TRANSITION FROM INITIALLY DISCRETE CELLS QUICKLY TO A LINEAR MODE. THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF ALSO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...DEVELOPING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION AND TRACKING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED AND LONG DURATION WIND THREAT. IF A LINE OF ROBUST CONVECTION CAN FORM...A STRONG COLD POOL MAY DEVELOP AIDED BY STRONG EVAPORATIONAL COOLING FROM THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED AND A RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. FURTHER EXACERBATING ISSUES IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM THE CONVECTION YESTERDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-3+ INCHES ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 14 KFT AND PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-2.00 INCHES...EXTREMELY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE FAVORED WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUND AND THE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 20Z-02Z...AGAIN WITH THE GREATEST THREATS BEING FROM STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE PRE (OR LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE ONGOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT ANOTHER PRE (OR MAYBE THE REAL PRE) WILL DEVELOPING MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION LATER THIS EVENING...BUT COULD VERY WELL INCLUDE LITCHFIELD AN PERHAPS THE I-84 WEST INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY. MEANWHILE A SLOW MOVING COLD WILL REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING...CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SLOW SWING THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINING SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAWN. HURRICANE ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...THEN MAKE MORE OF A NORTHEASTERN TURN FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD ENSURE THAT IT WOULD NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING ANY OF OUR REGION. FOR THE ALL THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS OF ARTHUR INCLUDING TRACK...INTENSITY AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS...PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC)...AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV. ARTHUR WILL HOWEVER HAVE AN INDIRECT IMPACT ON OUR REGION IN THAT ONCE IT PASSES BY TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWEST ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO INFILTRATE THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...POSSIBLY SOME STEADIER RAIN IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL HAVE TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY. WITH TIME...CLOUDS WILL BEING TO DIMINISH...LAST TO HAPPEN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...AND POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS CLEARING OUT ALLOWING FOR A COOL NIGHT. A BREEZE COULD PERSIST BUT EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PARK. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A TERRIFIC DAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY...MIXING WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU. IT WILL BE BREEZY BUT WITH VERY COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. DEEP MIXING AND THE STRONG JULY SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEAR 80 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN...DESPITE H850 TEMPERATURES COOLING TO A LITTLE BELOW 10C. MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL WITH DIMINISHING WIND SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHEASTWARD...40S WELL NORTHWEST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE TYPICAL WEATHER FOR EARLY JULY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL AS EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC AND A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE HAVE A CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS MONDAY WHEN HEATING IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THEN...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN A FEW ROGUE SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THE BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN LATE AFTERNOON AND MID EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AS ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF TSRA MOVES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY TSRA. CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION TSRA WITH IFR IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A POTENTIAL SOLID LINE OF TSRA WITH DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS SWEEPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 22Z-02Z. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY KPSF/KPOU AFTER 12Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE DAY WILL START OFF WITH AREAS OF FOG. THEN SOME HAZY SUNSHINE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDDAY. AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BEGINS PRESSING INTO THE REGION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IGNITE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MOST EVERYONE WILL RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER OF INCH OF RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS QUITE VARIABLE. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...LAST TO DO SO SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE DAY WILL START OUT DAMP AND MURKY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE...AND EVEN SOME LEFTOVER STEADY RAIN WELL SOUTH EAST OF ALBANY. WITH TIME...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD MIX AND RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 50 PERCENT EVEN AS A BREEZE KICKS FROM THE NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH. THAT BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE IN MANY PLACES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SKY CLEARS. SATURDAY WILL BE A MUCH DRIER DAY WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. RH VALUES BY AFTERNOON LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 30S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY TOO WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT LITCHFIELD COUNTY...FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT. AFTER A RESPITE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE UP ONCE MORE AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS...ANY THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WELL OVER 2 INCHES...IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AS PWATS CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA AS WELL. SINCE THERE WAS PLENTY OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...THE HIGH PWATS...THE POSSIBILITY THAT WHAT WE HAVE TODAY COULD BE THE FIRST "PRE" ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ARTHUR (STILL SLATED TO MISS US)...WE ISSUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE CONFIDENCE WAS AROUND 50 PERCENT THAT IT WILL HAPPEN SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN VERMONT OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. OUR PROJECTED AVERAGE RIVER BASIN RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY ONLY CAUSE SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT SOME OF THE STAGES COULD REACH "ACTION STAGE" ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD TAKE PLACE OVER A CRITICAL BASIN AREA. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY RIVER FLOODING. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOWS TO RECEDE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033- 038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025. VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IRL/JPV NEAR TERM...IRL SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
152 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PASS BY TO OUR EAST ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...PULLING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AS LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 12 AM EDT FRIDAY MORNING... AS OF 145 PM EDT...CONTINUING TO MONITOR DESTABILIZATION TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOW SPAWNING A NICE CU FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT IS NOW FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...SBCAPE AND MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG SHOULD EASILY BE REACHED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...PROVIDING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SYNOPTICALLY A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE WITH INCREASING INTENSITY AHEAD OF IT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP TO FURTHER INCREASE DYNAMIC LIFT AMIDST CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH...OR MORE OF A DIABATIC HEATING BOUNDARY...LOCATED EAST OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. IT IS HERE WHERE MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF SIGNAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN 17Z-19Z. EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ALREADY ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH NOW A 30% CONTOUR FOR WIND FROM INTERSTATE 90 AND LOCATIONS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST ONLY AROUND 6.0 C/KM...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR HAIL. REGARDLESS...TALL AND ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE STILL EXPECTED AS BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6KM LAYER ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 40-50 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS STORM ORGANIZATION. EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT TO BE FROM STRAIGHT- LINE WINDS AS THE SHEAR VECTORS ARE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A TRANSITION FROM INITIALLY DISCRETE CELLS QUICKLY TO A LINEAR MODE. THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF ALSO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...DEVELOPING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION AND TRACKING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED AND LONG DURATION WIND THREAT. IF A LINE OF ROBUST CONVECTION CAN FORM...A STRONG COLD POOL MAY DEVELOP AIDED BY STRONG EVAPORATIONAL COOLING FROM THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED AND A RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. FURTHER EXACERBATING ISSUES IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM THE CONVECTION YESTERDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-3+ INCHES ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 14 KFT AND PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-2.00 INCHES...EXTREMELY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE FAVORED WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUND AND THE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 20Z-02Z...AGAIN WITH THE GREATEST THREATS BEING FROM STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE PRE (OR LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE ONGOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT ANOTHER PRE (OR MAYBE THE REAL PRE) WILL DEVELOPING MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION LATER THIS EVENING...BUT COULD VERY WELL INCLUDE LITCHFIELD AN PERHAPS THE I-84 WEST INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY. MEANWHILE A SLOW MOVING COLD WILL REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING...CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SLOW SWING THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINING SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAWN. HURRICANE ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...THEN MAKE MORE OF A NORTHEASTERN TURN FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD ENSURE THAT IT WOULD NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING ANY OF OUR REGION. FOR THE ALL THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS OF ARTHUR INCLUDING TRACK...INTENSITY AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS...PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC)...AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV. ARTHUR WILL HOWEVER HAVE AN INDIRECT IMPACT ON OUR REGION IN THAT ONCE IT PASSES BY TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWEST ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO INFILTRATE THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...POSSIBLY SOME STEADIER RAIN IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL HAVE TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY. WITH TIME...CLOUDS WILL BEING TO DIMINISH...LAST TO HAPPEN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...AND POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS CLEARING OUT ALLOWING FOR A COOL NIGHT. A BREEZE COULD PERSIST BUT EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PARK. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A TERRIFIC DAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY...MIXING WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU. IT WILL BE BREEZY BUT WITH VERY COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. DEEP MIXING AND THE STRONG JULY SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEAR 80 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN...DESPITE H850 TEMPERATURES COOLING TO A LITTLE BELOW 10C. MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL WITH DIMINISHING WIND SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHEASTWARD...40S WELL NORTHWEST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE TYPICAL WEATHER FOR EARLY JULY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL AS EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC AND A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE HAVE A CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS MONDAY WHEN HEATING IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THEN...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN A FEW ROGUE SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THE BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN LATE AFTERNOON AND MID EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AS ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF TSRA MOVES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY TSRA. CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION TSRA WITH IFR IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A POTENTIAL SOLID LINE OF TSRA WITH DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS SWEEPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 22Z-02Z. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY KPSF/KPOU AFTER 12Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE DAY WILL START OFF WITH AREAS OF FOG. THEN SOME HAZY SUNSHINE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDDAY. AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BEGINS PRESSING INTO THE REGION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IGNITE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MOST EVERYONE WILL RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER OF INCH OF RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS QUITE VARIABLE. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...LAST TO DO SO SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE DAY WILL START OUT DAMP AND MURKY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE...AND EVEN SOME LEFTOVER STEADY RAIN WELL SOUTH EAST OF ALBANY. WITH TIME...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD MIX AND RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 50 PERCENT EVEN AS A BREEZE KICKS FROM THE NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH. THAT BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE IN MANY PLACES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SKY CLEARS. SATURDAY WILL BE A MUCH DRIER DAY WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. RH VALUES BY AFTERNOON LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 30S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY TOO WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT LITCHFIELD COUNTY...FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT. AFTER A RESPITE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE UP ONCE MORE AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS...ANY THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WELL OVER 2 INCHES...IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AS PWATS CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA AS WELL. SINCE THERE WAS PLENTY OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...THE HIGH PWATS...THE POSSIBILITY THAT WHAT WE HAVE TODAY COULD BE THE FIRST "PRE" ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ARTHUR (STILL SLATED TO MISS US)...WE ISSUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE CONFIDENCE WAS AROUND 50 PERCENT THAT IT WILL HAPPEN SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN VERMONT OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. OUR PROJECTED AVERAGE RIVER BASIN RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY ONLY CAUSE SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT SOME OF THE STAGES COULD REACH "ACTION STAGE" ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD TAKE PLACE OVER A CRITICAL BASIN AREA. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY RIVER FLOODING. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOWS TO RECEDE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033- 038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025. VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV NEAR TERM...IRL SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1107 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PASS BY TO OUR EAST ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...PULLING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AS LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1105 AM EDT...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADD LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SO NOW THE WATCH ENCOMPASSES ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LITCHFIELD COUNTY RECEIVED BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY...AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THIS AREA WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM THE CAPITAL REGION WESTWARD. STILL A SOLID BATCH OF LINGERING STRATUS CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LATE THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SMALL DISTURBANCE. THIS AREA SHOULD SEE CLEARING BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. IN FACT...CLOUDS AREA ALREADY MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SO THE BEST INSTABILITY AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...AND ESPECIALLY FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD TO LITCHFIELD CT. WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR INDICATING CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE A FEW HOURS LATER THAN YESTERDAY...MORE LIKELY IN THE 2-4 PM TIME FRAME TODAY. THE DEGREE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL IN QUESTION...AS THERE ARE MITIGATING FACTORS SUCH AS WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0C/KM AND LESS MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KT TODAY SO IF TALL UPDRAFTS CAN DEVELOP THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE AND BECOME SEVERE. SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE...WITH THE MOST INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL MAKE IT FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE PRE (OR LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE ONGOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT ANOTHER PRE (OR MAYBE THE REAL PRE) WILL DEVELOPING MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION LATER THIS EVENING...BUT COULD VERY WELL INCLUDE LITCHFIELD AN PERHAPS THE I-84 WEST INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY. MEANWHILE A SLOW MOVING COLD WILL REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING...CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SLOW SWING THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINING SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAWN. HURRICANE ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...THEN MAKE MORE OF A NORTHEASTERN TURN FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD ENSURE THAT IT WOULD NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING ANY OF OUR REGION. FOR THE ALL THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS OF ARTHUR INCLUDING TRACK...INTENSITY AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS...PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC)...AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV. ARTHUR WILL HOWEVER HAVE AN INDIRECT IMPACT ON OUR REGION IN THAT ONCE IT PASSES BY TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWEST ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO INFILTRATE THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...POSSIBLY SOME STEADIER RAIN IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL HAVE TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY. WITH TIME...CLOUDS WILL BEING TO DIMINISH...LAST TO HAPPEN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...AND POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS CLEARING OUT ALLOWING FOR A COOL NIGHT. A BREEZE COULD PERSIST BUT EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PARK. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A TERRIFIC DAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY...MIXING WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU. IT WILL BE BREEZY BUT WITH VERY COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. DEEP MIXING AND THE STRONG JULY SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEAR 80 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN...DESPITE H850 TEMPERATURES COOLING TO A LITTLE BELOW 10C. MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL WITH DIMINISHING WIND SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHEASTWARD...40S WELL NORTHWEST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WE SHOULD ROUND OUT THIS FIRST WEEKEND OF JULY ON A DRY NOTE AS ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION. AS H850 TEMPS HOVER INTO THE MID TEENS...SHOULD RESULT IN VALLEY HIGHS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S AND 75-80F FOR THE TERRAIN. UPSTREAM...A WARM FRONT BECOMES A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS THE WESTERLIES INCREASE ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WE WILL INCREASE POPS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MORE MILDER WITH MAINLY 60S. A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK AS THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP THE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORIES. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME AS GLOBAL MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... GENERALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WITH FG/BR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BUT AS THE MORNING PROGRESS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 13Z-15Z. KPSF WILL BE SLOWEST TO IMPROVE. THEN OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS TOWARD CONVECTION AS SHOWERS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KPOU THIS EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE A SIGN FOR THINGS TO COME LATER ON AS MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH SOME SHORTER PERIODS OF IFR TOO. THE RAINFALL WILL BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY THAT CAN POSE ADDITIONAL LOWERING OF THE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO IFR. THE WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 10KTS OR LESS /EXCEPT HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS/. THOSE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE DAY WILL START OFF WITH AREAS OF FOG. THEN SOME HAZY SUNSHINE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDDAY. AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BEGINS PRESSING INTO THE REGION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IGNITE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MOST EVERYONE WILL RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER OF INCH OF RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS QUITE VARIABLE. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...LAST TO DO SO SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE DAY WILL START OUT DAMP AND MURKY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE...AND EVEN SOME LEFTOVER STEADY RAIN WELL SOUTH EAST OF ALBANY. WITH TIME...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD MIX AND RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 50 PERCENT EVEN AS A BREEZE KICKS FROM THE NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH. THAT BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE IN MANY PLACES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SKY CLEARS. SATURDAY WILL BE A MUCH DRIER DAY WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. RH VALUES BY AFTERNOON LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 30S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY TOO WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT LITCHFIELD COUNTY...FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT. AFTER A RESPITE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE UP ONCE MORE AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS...ANY THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WELL OVER 2 INCHES...IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AS PWATS CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA AS WELL. SINCE THERE WAS PLENTY OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...THE HIGH PWATS...THE POSSIBILITY THAT WHAT WE HAVE TODAY COULD BE THE FIRST "PRE" ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ARTHUR (STILL SLATED TO MISS US)...WE ISSUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE CONFIDENCE WAS AROUND 50 PERCENT THAT IT WILL HAPPEN SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN VERMONT OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. OUR PROJECTED AVERAGE RIVER BASIN RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY ONLY CAUSE SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT SOME OF THE STAGES COULD REACH "ACTION STAGE" ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD TAKE PLACE OVER A CRITICAL BASIN AREA. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY RIVER FLOODING. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOWS TO RECEDE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043- 047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025. VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...BGM/JPV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
751 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014 .UPDATE... EARLIER SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED...AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND CLOUDS HAVE PREVENTED ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BROWARD/DADE/PALM BEACH COASTS THIS EVENING. THUS...EXPECTING THE SWATH OF RAIN THROUGH INLAND PALM BEACH/BROWARD TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS NE OF NAPLES IS MOVING WEST TOWARDS THE COAST...BUT MAY ALSO WEAKEN BEFORE ARRIVING TO I-75. HOWEVER...ANY OUTFLOW FROM THIS CLUSTER MAY SPAWN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT A LITTLE LATER CONSIDERING THE LACK OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY. REGARDLESS...POPS WERE REDUCED TO SLT CHC IN SOME AREAS ALONG THE COASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014/ AVIATION... MOST OF THE TAF SITES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES OF KPBI AND KAPF THROUGH 02Z. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL 02Z FOR KAPF AND KPBI TAF SITES BEFORE GOING DRY TONIGHT WITH REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES BEING DRY. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE SMOKE FROM THE FIREWORKS TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES A LITTLE BIT BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS BEFORE PUTTING IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE REDUCE VIS. AVIATION...54/BNB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014/ DISCUSSION... WIDELY DISPERSED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. IN GENERAL STORM MOTION IS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA EXPECTED TO HAVE THE MOST COVERAGE. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW THIS TREND AS WELL. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATING AN ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THEN EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TOWARD HURRICANE ARTHUR. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT AREA OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND EXTEND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES...I.E. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOISTURE...WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MARINE... IN GENERAL WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 76 89 77 89 / 30 40 30 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 79 90 80 90 / 20 40 20 40 MIAMI 77 90 78 90 / 20 40 20 40 NAPLES 75 91 74 91 / 20 30 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...21/KM LONG TERM....10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
714 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014 .AVIATION... MOST OF THE TAF SITES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES OF KPBI AND KAPF THROUGH 02Z. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL 02Z FOR KAPF AND KPBI TAF SITES BEFORE GOING DRY TONIGHT WITH REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES BEING DRY. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE SMOKE FROM THE FIREWORKS TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES A LITTLE BIT BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS BEFORE PUTTING IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE REDUCE VIS. && .AVIATION...54/BNB .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014/ DISCUSSION... WIDELY DISPERSED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. IN GENERAL STORM MOTION IS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA EXPECTED TO HAVE THE MOST COVERAGE. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW THIS TREND AS WELL. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATING AN ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THEN EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TOWARD HURRICANE ARTHUR. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT AREA OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND EXTEND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES...I.E. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOISTURE...WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MARINE... IN GENERAL WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 76 89 77 89 / 30 40 30 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 79 90 80 90 / 30 40 20 40 MIAMI 77 90 78 90 / 30 40 20 40 NAPLES 75 91 74 91 / 20 30 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...21/KM LONG TERM....60/BD AVIATION...54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1106 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 .UPDATE...THERE IS A RESIDUAL SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE IMPETUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GEORGIA. HRRR LEAST ROBUST WITH PRECIPITATION TODAY...WITH RUC13 AND NSSL WRF SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS ACROSS NE FLORIDA. WILL GO WITH THE RUC13 AND WRF SOLUTIONS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL... PRIMARILY AFTER 20Z...WITH WANING CONVECTION AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER DUSK. && .AVIATION...WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST REGION LATER THIS MORNING...WITH AFTN TSTORM PROBABILITIES AROUND 40% AT ALL TERMINALS WITH VCTS BETWEEN 19-01Z. CONVECTION WANES AROUND 02Z WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO 5SM AT CECIL FIELD. DRIER AIR SEEPS INTO THE REGION FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...WITH TSTM COVERAGE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. && .MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH 2 PM. COMBINED SEAS IN THE 40 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILE RANGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE...WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS NORTH OF THE ST. MARYS RIVER 40 TO 60NM OFFSHORE OF THE ALTAMAHA SOUND. AFTER 2 PM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECAY AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO ELEVATED SWELLS FROM ARTHUR. A ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 98 71 95 71 / 30 30 0 10 SSI 93 76 91 75 / 40 30 10 20 JAX 96 75 96 74 / 40 30 20 30 SGJ 93 76 91 75 / 40 20 40 40 GNV 93 74 94 71 / 40 30 30 30 OCF 93 74 93 71 / 40 30 40 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL- FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS. GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SANDRIK/CORDERO/GUILLET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1224 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY...AND CONTINUE MOVING NE TOWARDS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER OUR REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD GRAZE THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATED CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS. THE SPC WRF INDICATED LESS COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 20 PERCENT WEST TO 40 PERCENT EAST. LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO AROUND 90 WEST ARE WELL ON THEIR WAY TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S EAST TO THE UPPER 90S WEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... DRIER AIR WILL ENTER OUR REGION BEHIND ARTHUR AND THE UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGH....REINFORCED BY ANOTHER DRY SURFACE TROUGH COMING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE QUITE DRY AIR TO FILTER IN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO 0.75 TO 1 INCH...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN INTO THE 50S IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE THROUGH SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR REGION...WITH GRADUAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASE...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST OVER THE SOUTH FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND REMAINDER OF THE FA MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY MID WEEK...THE E CONUS UPPER TROUGH MAY DIG SOME WHILE A SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MAY PROVIDE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE EVENING. HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BANDS OF CONVECTION FROM HURRICANE ARTHUR TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AFFECTING CAE/CUB/OGB DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. ARTHUR WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE SC COAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE TAF SITES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM 23Z-04Z. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND ARTHUR. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NOT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1059 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD GRAZE THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATED CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS. THE SPC WRF INDICATED LESS COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 20 PERCENT WEST TO 40 PERCENT EAST. LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO AROUND 90 WEST ARE WELL ON THEIR WAY TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S EAST TO THE UPPER 90S WEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. USED THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT AND EXPECT FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST AND ALLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM- RANGE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE EVENING. HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BANDS OF CONVECTION FROM HURRICANE ARTHUR TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AFFECTING CAE/CUB/OGB DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. ARTHUR WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE SC COAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE TAF SITES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM 23Z-04Z. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND ARTHUR. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NOT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
752 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRAZE THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 07Z HRRR DISPLAYED CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SPC WRF INDICATED LESS COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT...BUT RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUPPORT HIGHER POPS IN THE EXTREME EAST PART. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WE USED THE HOTTER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF MIXING TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. USED THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT AND EXPECT FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST AND ALLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM- RANGE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY. HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. A LINE OF CONVECTION CROSSING THE MIDLANDS IN THE VCNTY OF CAE/CUB THROUGH 14Z. ADDITIONAL BANDS OF CONVECTION FROM HURRICANE ARTHUR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON....CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. ARTHUR WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE SC COAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE TAF SITES FROM THE WEST. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04/04Z. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING...BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST MID TO LATE MORNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
638 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRAZE THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 07Z HRRR DISPLAYED CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SPC WRF INDICATED LESS COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT...BUT RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUPPORT HIGHER POPS IN THE EXTREME EAST PART. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WE USED THE HOTTER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF MIXING TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. USED THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT AND EXPECT FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST AND ALLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM- RANGE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY. HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING SO HAVE ADDED VCSH TO THE CAE AND CUB TAFS UNTIL 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 5 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO NORTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 TO 18 KNOTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR DAYBREAK AT OGB/AGS. WIND MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION AT THIS TIME. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
600 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRAZE THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 07Z HRRR DISPLAYED CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SPC WRF INDICATED LESS COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT...BUT RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUPPORT HIGHER POPS IN THE EXTREME EAST PART. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WE USED THE HOTTER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF MIXING TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. USED THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT AND EXPECT FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST AND ALLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM- RANGE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY. HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 5 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO NORTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 TO 18 KNOTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR DAYBREAK AT OGB/AGS. WIND MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION AT THIS TIME. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
500 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRAZE THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 04Z HRRR DISPLAYED CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SPC WRF INDICATED LESS COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT...BUT RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUPPORT HIGHER POPS IN THE EXTREME EAST PART. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WE USED THE HOTTER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF MIXING TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. USED THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT AND EXPECT FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST AND ALLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM- RANGE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY. HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE SC MIDLANDS SO HAVE ADDED VCSH TO THE CAE AND CUB TAFS UNTIL 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 5 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO NORTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 TO 18 KNOTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR DAYBREAK AT OGB/AGS. WIND MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION AT THIS TIME. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
457 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRAZE THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 04Z HRRR DISPLAYED CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SPC WRF INDICATED LESS COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT...BUT RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUPPORT HIGHER POPS IN THE EXTREME EAST PART. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WE USED THE HOTTER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF MIXING TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. USED THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT AND EXPECT FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST AND ALLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM- RANGE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY. TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 5 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO NORTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 TO 18 KNOTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR DAYBREAK AT OGB/AGS. WIND MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION AT THIS TIME. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
443 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY GRAZE THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 04Z HRRR DISPLAYED CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SPC WRF INDICATED LESS COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT...BUT RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUPPORT HIGHER POPS IN THE EXTREME EAST PART. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WE USED THE HOTTER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF MIXING TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. USED THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT AND EXPECT FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST AND ALLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM- RANGE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY. TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 5 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO NORTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 TO 18 KNOTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR DAYBREAK AT OGB/AGS. WIND MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION AT THIS TIME. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1137 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 908 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ROCKIES TO SPREAD INTO OUR AREA AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT PERSISTENT AREA OF WAA ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH IS SEEMINGLY ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A FEW AREAS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE RAP INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE/WEAK CINH IN THIS AREA...LAST FEW RUNS HAVE INCREASED INHIBITION GREATLY SO CONFIDENCE IN OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT IS LOW. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014 LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE PLAINS WHICH LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE A SECOND WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 600J/KG...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BEFORE MID EVENING. TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA AND BRING HIGHER MIXING RATIOS UP FROM THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. THURSDAY THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...LEADING TO RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS. MIXING RATIOS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW. DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON A FAIRLY WEAK 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 2000J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO BORDER AND LITTLE TO NO CINH...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DISAGREE WHERE EXACTLY THE TROUGH WILL TRACK...BUT GENERALLY HAVE IT NORTH OF HWY 24. STORM MOVEMENT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH...SO STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF IT AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE A DRY LINE WILL MOVE TO JUST WEST OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP/FOLLOW THE DRY LINE AS IT MOVES EAST. DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT OF ONLY 10KTS OR SO...ANY STORMS THAT BUILD OFF THE DRY LINE WILL NOT MOVE INTO KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO BECOME SEVERE DUE TO 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS AND SURFACE CAPE OF 2000J/KG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF AN INCH WILL ALLOW HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014 A HOT WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE TRI-STATE REGION AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THERE WILL BE A FEW CHANCES FOR STORMS...NOTABLY TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN THESE TWO BETTER CHANCES...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED COMPARED TO THIS RECENT MONTH OF JUNE. FOR TOMORROW NIGHT...STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL COLORADO MAY MAKE IT INTO EAST COLORADO BEFORE DISSIPATING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND MAY KEEP CONVECTION GOING ALL NIGHT SIMILAR TO RECENT EVENTS. THE NOSE OF THE JET WILL BE LOCATED ROUGH ALONG TO JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FROM COLBY TO HILL CITY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ELEVATED STORMS WILL RESIDE. WITH MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG...A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT. ON FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR YET AGAIN ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS WEAKER...ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS...ON FRIDAY SO STORMS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE. STORMS SHOULD BE MORE OF THE PULSE VARIETY AND DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN BELOW CLOUD LEVEL...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR DOWNBURSTS. IN ADDITION... LARGE HAIL IS A THREAT WITH THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND... LEADING TO A VERY HOT AND DRY FORECAST. WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE FORECAST BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS POPPED UP. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EAST COLORADO SATURDAY BUT OTHER THAN THIS SLIM CHANCE...THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY THIS WEEKEND. ONE LAST HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TOUGH AND COLD FRONT BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND FORCE IT BACK WEST. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HARD TO PINPOINT RIGHT NOW...ESPECIALLY WHEN BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE AROUND THE LINGERING FRONT AND MODELS DIFFER ON THEIR FRONTAL POSITIONS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW PERIODS OF 5000-8000 FT CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD AREA AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 22 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE CHANCE FOR STORMS REMAINS TOMORROW EVENING...PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JRM SHORT TERM...JTL LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
951 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... VERY WARM AND MAINLY DRY DAY WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR TODAY WITH A STRONG HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE STATE NORTHWARD THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN. AS THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES EAST OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL IMPROVE. CONVECTION INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MONTANA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATER IN THE DAY. RECENT HRRR MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD OFF ON BRINGING IN SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNTIL AFTER 6 PM. ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS IDEA. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CROSSING INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST. GIVEN HIGH SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS ARE COLLAPSING ON THEIR WAY INTO THE FORECAST REGION ALLOWING DOWNDRAFT AIR TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS ALONE IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN AWARENESS PERTAINING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS FORT PECK LAKE IN CLOSE TEMPORAL PROXIMITY TO THE HOLIDAY. MALIAWCO PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION... EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS SWAY ACROSS MOST OF MONTANA AND THE SURROUNDING REGION...THE LARGE AND ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIAN COAST IS BEGINNING TO SNEAK THE FIRST WAVES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MONTANA. FOR TODAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THOSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA...BUT THEY MIGHT JUST BE ABLE TO SNEAK OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT AS INDICATED BY THE GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS. BEST GUESS PLACES GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING INTO THE 20G30 MPH RANGE. FELT IT WOULD BE JUST ENOUGH ABOVE BORDERLINE CONDITIONS TO WARRANT ISSUING A LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BREAK INTO THE 90S FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ACROSS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE CWA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IF NOT CALM. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT OVER TO OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR IT IS NOT AS CONVINCING. NAM AND SREF SHOW IT BEST...BUT THE GFS AND EC SHOW MORE OF A VIRGA OR JUST CLOUDINESS. SATURDAY EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE 90S AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR OUR EASTERN CWA BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA. YET...WITH ONLY LIMITED MODEL SUPPORT...NOT OVERLY CONVINCED AT THIS POINT THAT ANY STORMS WILL HAPPEN AT ALL. BEST INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONGREGATE OVER NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BMICKELSON .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE REBOUNDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TROF DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. NORTHEAST MONTANA REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY AREA BETWEEN THE HOT DRY HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE COLDER WETTER FLOW AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW. FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK THE HOT DRY WEATHER HIGH WILL HAVE THE BIGGER IMPACT HOWEVER MODELS SUGGESTING A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MIDWEEK WHICH COULD PULL SOME OF THE COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD AND PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. EBERT && .AVIATION... VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT. TFJ && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
831 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 753 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE MOST RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA TRENDS. IT APPEARS THAT IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION THAT IS OUT IN COLORADO IS GOING TO MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA...IT WILL MORE LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND I HAVE CUT BACK CHANCES OF RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH. LATER ON IN THE LATE EVENING PAST 10 PM...THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY VERY WELL BE FOCUSED TOWARD THE NORTHERN CWA...WHERE I KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN A BIT HIGHER. OVERALL...CHANCES OF RAIN DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT HIGH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS TO LET OFF FIREWORKS WITHOUT MUCH OF A HITCH...THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY BE HOW MUCH WIND WE HAVE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE LOW- LEVEL JET INCREASES. CONSRAW INDICATES SOME GUSTS MAY GET CLOSE TO 25 MPH. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE THE BEST INITIALIZED MODEL FOR GAUGING WHERE RAIN MAY BE TONIGHT...AND IT POINTS MORE TO THE SOUTH WHERE LEFTOVER CONVECTION OUT OF COLORADO WILL FINALLY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO POSSIBLY GIVE A LITTLE RAIN BEFORE FALLING APART. THERE COULD BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO...GIVEN MODERATE MID- LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MODERATE SHEAR. THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE HEADING EAST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER FORECAST...SO INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR ROUGHLY OUR EASTERN TWO TIERS OF NEBRASKA COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME AROUND. SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND HAVE BROUGHT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS RAISING A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT LOCATIONS AND TIMING OF THE STORMS. THE NAM HAS THEM MOVING INTO THE WEST ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS IT MORE DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE KEPT WITH THAT AND HAVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THEN OVERNIGHT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THE NEXT QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHETHER ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW THAT LINGER IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER THAT AND ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE PLAINS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY...BEFORE A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS/DISTURBANCES RESULT IN HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...AND A RETURN TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALONG WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. FOR SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO EITHER THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OR TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...WHICH COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE THE VERY WARM AFTERNOON FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON HWO. THEN...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO SURGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH MODEST SHEAR AND WEAK FORCING FROM THE FRONT...COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS FIRE UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THAT SAID...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SPOTTY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS DEFINITELY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS POINT. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACTUALLY APPEARS BE THE FOLLOWING NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SECONDARY FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THEREAFTER...CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDENT ON WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...AS AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION BACK ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM END TO THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 CONFIDENCE IS LOW...REGARDING CEILINGS AND CEILING HEIGHTS. THUNDERSTORMS IN COLORADO WILL MAKE THEIR WAY EAST THIS EVENING...BUT NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING. UNLESS NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE NOSE OF AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUITE SMALL...AS ANY REMNANTS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. SOUTH WIND SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BUT STAY A BIT ELEVATED DUE TO AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. OF COURSE...WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD VARY IN OR NEAR A THUNDERSTORM...BUT THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT SEEMS TO BE DECREASING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS GETTING CLOSE TO BE AN ISSUE NEAR 09Z AT ABOUT 875 MB...WHICH IS NEAR 2200 FT TO 2300 FT...BUT LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS THE NEXT FORECAST MAY HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HEINLEIN SHORT TERM...JCB LONG TERM...ROSSI AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
633 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED BROAD RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE COUNTRY...CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN MOVING ACROSS WYOMING CURRENTLY WITH CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WHICH LED TO AN OPEN GULF BRINGING A GOOD FETCH OF MOISTURE UP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LOCALLY...DEWPOINTS HAD RISEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SOME AREAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A GOOD BATCH OF LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS THAT HAS BEEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE STRONG FLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE EXITED TEMPERATURES ARE RECOVERING WITH MANY SITES NOW SEEING READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM AROUND KSNY TO KCDR TO NEAR KRAP. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...DEWPOINTS WERE DOWN IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. STORMS HAD BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF NEBRASKA TODAY CAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN WITH 2000 TO 4500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 19Z. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS ALONG THE GRADIENT OF THE STRONGEST CAPE AS WELL AS HAS GOOD CONVERGENCE ONGOING. THE THINKING IS THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING MOVES CLOSER THIS EVENING AND THE LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE...THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK DESPITE THE AMOUNT OF CAPE...SO ALTHOUGH COULD GET A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE TO A POINT OF DEVELOPING INTO A STORM CAPABLE OF SEVERE CONDITIONS...DON/T THINK THERE IS A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH MOST STORMS LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY VERTICAL AND PULSE TYPE STORMS. STORM MOVEMENT SHOULDN/T BE TOO FAST AS MEAN FLOW ALOFT IS ABOUT 15-20KTS FROM THE WEST. AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP OVER 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ANY STORMS. HOWEVER COULD GET A FEW STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL OR STRONG WINDS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD PUSH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST AS WELL SO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS DRY. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 12C TO 14C FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET REMAINS IN QUESTION. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST SOME LOCATIONS WILL PUSH 100 DEGREES...MAINLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD HELP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND ALLOW IT TO WARM UP A BIT MORE. HOWEVER WEAK SURFACE FLOW ISN/T GOING TO HELP SO DIDN/T WANT TO GO QUITE THAT WARM AND WILL STICK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 A THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAP THE ATMOSPHERE. A LL JET DOES DEVELOP...HOWEVER MODELS NOSE IT FOR THE MOST PART TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. LOWS WILL BE MILD...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM ONE...WITH GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 90S. CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS TO THE SOUTHWEST...STILL SEEING WARM AIR OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF VEGETATION FROM THE WET JUNE SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE LL MOISTURE AND KEEP DEW PTS FROM TANKING DURING PEAK HEAT. THIS ADDED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS AT OR BELOW GUIDANCE. LATE IN THE DAY...A RIDGE RIDING DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON IN THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERNS HOW SOON...OR IF THE CAP WILL BREAK. GOOD INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ANY STORMS HAVING THE CHANCE TO BECOME STRONG. HAVE INCLUDED POPS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT. MORE CLOUDS WITH THE WAVE WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE WESTERN RIDGE HOLD STRONG WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO WESTERN CANADA WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING SOME TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE NORTHWEST WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEEK WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVERY PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...ESPECIALLY IF IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEAT. FORECAST HAS POPS IN NEARLY EVERY PERIOD...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE A WASH OF A WEEK. STORMS WILL BE ISOLD TO SCT AND PROGRESSIVE. AS FOR TEMPS...AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS...HIGHS WILL COME DOWN TO THE 80S...WHILE DECENT LL MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 ASSUMING NO NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...VFR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS SATURDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS NERN COLO WILL LIKELY TURN SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE 03Z-06Z. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS HAVE BEEN OVER FORECASTING CONVECTION ACROSS NEB THIS AFTN AND ARE POOR PERFORMERS. THE NAM SHOWS SOME TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING 03Z-09Z AFFECTING KVTN-KANW-KONL AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BROOKS LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
335 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES. LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME CUMULUS FORMING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE EAST AND THE SOUTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY TIGHT DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS TONIGHT...SO WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE NAM AND FOR THE MOST PART THE ECMWF ARE MOSTLY DRY AND THE HRRR HAS BASICALLY NO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GFS BRINGS IN THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND SPREADS THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER THERE COULD BE ANY STRONG STORMS WITH THESE. THERE IS AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THAT COULD BRING IN SOME STORMS THAT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS WELL. WILL KEEP SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST BUT WITH THE WAVE APPROACHING THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARMING TREND. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014 PATTERN: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH VIA MULTI-AGENCY ENSEMBLE MEANS THAT A LOW TO MODERATELY AMPLITUDE WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WILL PREVAIL IN THE LONGWAVES FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SAT-MON...THEN TURNING AT OR A LITTLE BELOW THAN NORMAL TUE- THU. ALOFT: A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW AND SRN PLAINS FRI EVE. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. IT`S BEST SEEN WITH DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE TOOLS. BEYOND THAT IT`S ANTICYCLONIC NW FLOW HERE THRU SUN NIGHT...WITH THE POLAR JET CONFINED TO THE US-CAN BORDER. UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL RESULT IN RE- AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE HEIGHTS TO FALL OVER THE ERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK... DRIVING A COOL FRONT INTO THE FCST AREA. NW FLOW WILL CONT MON-THU AND IT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PICK OUT ANY SHORTWAVE TROFS. SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL SUN. THEN SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION WILL SEND A COOL FRONT THRU HERE DURING THE DAY SUN. THIS IS 6-12 HRS FASTER THAN WHEN WE LOOKED AT THIS YESTERDAY ...DEPENDENT UPON WHICH MODEL CHOSEN. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY OVER KS MON-THU BUT WILL BE MODULATED AND/OR REINFORCED BY TSTM ACTIVITY. HAZARDS: THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME TSTM ACTIVITY FRI NIGHT TO BE SEVERE. FOLLOW THE SPC OUTLOOKS FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A SLGT RISK AND THE HWO FROM THIS OFFICE. THERE IS OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTM OR TWO SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. OTHER TSTM POTENTIAL EXISTS TUE-THU...BUT NO CONFIDENCE ON POTENCY OR COVERAGE THIS FAR OUT IN A WEAK FORCING REGIME. THE DAILY DETAILS... FRI NIGHT: SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP LATE FRI AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT THEY WILL THREATEN AREAS N AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES DURING THE EVENING. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" QPF SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OR END AS IT MOVES IN. THIS MAY NOT BE THE END OF THE STORY. IF UPSTREAM STORMS CAN FORM A COMMON COLD POOL AND PROPAGATE E...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH MUCAPE AVERAGING 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AT LEAST 40 KTS. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW HI-RES REFLECTIVITY SUGGEST THE IS A POSSIBILITY. WE NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME PERIOD FOR SEVERE TSTMS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER ERN NEB/KS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LLJ WILL REINTENSIFY...BUT LOW PRES THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES /AND POSSIBLY THE TROF MOVING THRU HERE/ WILL FORCE THE LEE TROF E OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION. THE EFFECT WILL BE TO SHOVE THE LLJ CORE E OF THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...REPOSITIONING THE BEST THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE E AS WELL. SAT: ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS/TSTMS IN THE MORNING DEPART TO THE E. TURNING HOT AS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FCST AREA CLIMBS INTO THE 90S. TSTMS WILL FORM AGAIN OUT TO THE W. DO NOT ENVISION ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT HERE. STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AND SHIFT TO N. SUN: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. NOT SURE WE ARE HOT ENOUGH IN THE FCST. THE COOL FRONT WILL DRAG A VERY HOT THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE FCST AREA. 100-105F IS ON THE TABLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND S OF HWY 136. IF THIS OCCURS THEN UPR 90S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE TRI-CITIES. LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE SUNDAY MISERABLE WITHOUT A/C. DEWPOINTS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE 65-71F. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO AROUND 100F OVER S-CNTRL NEB. THE LLJ SAT NIGHT WILL ADVECT AN EML OVER THE FCST AREA. COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE THIS WILL IMPOSE A FORMIDABLE CAP. SO TSTM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS IFFY LATE AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...POSSIBLY A LEFT OVER SHWR/TSTM HERE OR THERE. "IF" A TSTM OR TWO CAN MANAGE TO POP THRU THE CAP...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT ...BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE UNDER 20 KTS. MON: NEAR NORMAL HEAT FOR EARLY JULY...BUT NOTHING EXCESSIVE LIKE SUN. MON NIGHT: FOR NOW QPF FROM 00Z/12Z MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL-CLUSTERED FOR TSTM/MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER NEB/KS. STAYED TUNED. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. WE HAVE LOTS OF TIME FOR DETAILS TO EVOLVE. TUE-THU: SEASONABLE TEMPS AS OF NOW...BUT MODELED TEMPS LOOK TOO WARM FOR THE 500 MB FLOW. ENSEMBLE TEMP ANOMALIES SUGGEST TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER THAN NORMAL. WHILE EVERY LOCATION WILL NOT SEE A TSTM IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME ...THE POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. HOWEVER... BOTH THE 12Z EC/GEM HAVE A CLEAR SIGNAL THAT A SECONDARY COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU TUE OR TUE NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...ENOUGH COOL AIR COULD FORCE THE PREVIOUS FRONT FURTHER S RESULTING IN A DAY OR TWO WHERE WE COULD REMOVE POPS FROM THE FCST. THIS SCENARIO ALSO SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF TRENDING COOLER MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014 ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THERE IS AN OFF CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF IT OCCURS IT COULD CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATING. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JCB LONG TERM...HALBLAUB AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ROUNDS OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE ON INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. && .DISCUSSION... A MUCH HEALTHIER CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS/TOWERING CUMULUS OVER ALL MOUNTAIN RANGES THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH WEDNESDAY. CLASSIC THUNDERHEAD STRUCTURE ALSO APPARENT WITH THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS VERY WEAK. CLOCKWISE STEERING FLOW ALSO QUITE APPARENT AS STORMS OVER NORTHERN NM MOVING/PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS DRIFTING EAST AND SOUTHEAST RESPECTIVELY. WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS BEING THE RULE...COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE TO INITIATE STORMS IN THE BASINS AND VALLEYS THIS EVENING. LOCALLY RUN WRF MODEL MODEL INDICATING THAT A CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING...QUITE POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE SANTA FE AND ABQ METRO AREAS ALONG WITH EAST MOUNTAIN AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...NAM12 BUFR DATA INDICATING THAT THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION/CAP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE BROKEN EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF ADDITIONAL HEATING...GETTING EASTERN AREAS INTO THE ACT. SIMILAR SET UP FOR FRIDAY WITH MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING STEERING LEVEL WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE ELY. TOUGH PART IS GETTING STORMS TO PROPAGATE OFF THE SMALLER MOUNTAINS RANGES SUCH AS THE SANDIAS AND MANZANOS INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS AND BASINS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS. FOURTH OF JULY ACTIVITIES IN THE NORTH VALLEY OF ABQ MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS. NAM12 INDICATING SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STEERING FLOW TAKING STORMS SLOWLY WEST AND NORTHWEST. VERY DRY AIRMASS AT 500MB WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER HIGH AND OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LIMITING STORM CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WESTWARD TO THE MIDDLE RG VALLEY. BY TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MORE TRADITIONAL UPPER LEVEL PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL WORK UP INTO AZ. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SEEP INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM FOR AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BEYOND DAY SEVEN AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER HIGH AND WHETHER OR NOT THE MONSOON PLUME WILL BE CENTERED OVER NM OR AZ. 33 && .FIRE WEATHER... CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT GRADUAL DRYING HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH THE MORNING MOISTURE MIXING OUT. DESPITE THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA AND PROVIDE WETTING RAINS...THOUGH A FEW MAY BE ON THE DRIER SIDE. THIS AND CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING...SLOWLY MOVING SSE ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND WSW ACROSS SW NM. HRRR MODEL INDICATES CONVECTION WILL PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RGV. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE CAP BREAKS PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 RUNS...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POP GRIDS. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL BEGIN TURNING CLOCKWISE AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. BY SUNDAY...THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...BUT FAVOR THE GILA MOUNTAINS. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MOIST SFC AND 700MB LEVEL S TO SE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL DRYING AREAWIDE THROUGH SUNDAY AND OVERALL DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL LOWER EACH DAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL DROP AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEY AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND BECOME NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. VENT RATES AND TRANS WINDS WILL BOTTOM OUT FRIDAY BEFORE IMPROVING THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW NM. MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING IN THE SETUP OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. USING A BLEND CONCEPT...IT APPEARS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THE HIGH SLIGHTLY WEST...WITH A WEAK WIND SHIFT AT THE 700 AND 500MB LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING BACK A MORE MOIST SELY TO SLY TO NEW MEXICO. THIS CONCEPTUAL MODEL ALIGNS WITH GFS THETA-E RIDGE POSITIONING. BY MONDAY...THE THETA-E RIDGE BECOME VERTICAL ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER...AND SLOWLY MOVE E WHILE TURNING CLOCKWISE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...HIGHER HUMIDITIES...AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL SEE IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THIS PATTERN...OR DIVERGE AGAIN. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THIS AFTN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. CU WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER N MTS AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN...DEVELOPING INTO SCT SHRA AND TSTMS AFTER 1830Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT POSSIBLE WITH STORMS AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE SSE ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND WSW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. USED HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL TO HONE IN ON POTENTIAL TIMING OF STORMS NEAR TERMINAL SITES...WITH KSAF AND KLVS MOST LIKELY IMPACTED. SIMILAR SETUP AS YESTERDAY SHOULD YIELD LATE EVENING POTENTIAL STORM ARRIVAL FOR KABQ AND KAEG. WILL MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND AMEND IF STORMS DEVELOP CLOSER TO TERMINAL SITES EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT REDUCED VSBYS NEAR KTCC AROUND 09Z...BUT LACK OF EXPECTED STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA TO INDUCE CATEGORICAL CHANGES PRECLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP EYE ON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 59 91 62 92 / 20 10 10 10 DULCE........................... 45 87 47 88 / 40 30 30 30 CUBA............................ 51 84 54 87 / 40 40 40 30 GALLUP.......................... 55 87 59 88 / 40 30 30 30 EL MORRO........................ 51 80 53 81 / 50 50 40 50 GRANTS.......................... 52 84 54 85 / 40 40 40 40 QUEMADO......................... 54 80 57 82 / 40 40 40 30 GLENWOOD........................ 51 89 54 89 / 30 20 30 30 CHAMA........................... 44 79 46 81 / 40 50 40 50 LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 81 63 83 / 40 50 40 40 PECOS........................... 55 78 58 80 / 40 40 40 40 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 50 79 52 80 / 40 40 40 40 RED RIVER....................... 45 70 46 73 / 50 60 40 60 ANGEL FIRE...................... 40 75 42 77 / 40 50 50 40 TAOS............................ 50 82 52 84 / 40 40 30 30 MORA............................ 51 78 53 80 / 40 50 50 50 ESPANOLA........................ 55 86 59 88 / 40 30 30 30 SANTA FE........................ 58 82 62 84 / 40 30 40 30 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 57 86 61 89 / 30 30 30 30 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 63 87 66 90 / 30 20 30 20 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 89 69 92 / 30 10 30 10 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 62 91 65 94 / 30 10 30 10 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 65 90 68 93 / 30 10 30 10 LOS LUNAS....................... 59 91 62 93 / 30 10 30 10 RIO RANCHO...................... 64 90 68 93 / 30 10 30 20 SOCORRO......................... 67 92 69 93 / 30 10 20 10 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 83 58 86 / 40 30 30 30 TIJERAS......................... 57 84 61 87 / 40 30 30 20 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 85 55 88 / 40 30 30 20 CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 82 58 85 / 40 30 30 40 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 83 62 86 / 30 20 30 40 CARRIZOZO....................... 63 85 65 87 / 20 20 20 30 RUIDOSO......................... 54 81 56 84 / 30 20 20 40 CAPULIN......................... 56 80 58 83 / 40 30 30 30 RATON........................... 56 84 58 88 / 30 30 30 30 SPRINGER........................ 55 85 57 89 / 30 30 30 30 LAS VEGAS....................... 53 81 55 83 / 30 40 30 40 CLAYTON......................... 62 89 65 91 / 20 20 30 30 ROY............................. 59 82 61 85 / 30 20 30 40 CONCHAS......................... 65 89 67 91 / 30 20 30 30 SANTA ROSA...................... 63 87 65 91 / 20 20 30 30 TUCUMCARI....................... 65 91 68 93 / 20 5 20 20 CLOVIS.......................... 60 86 62 88 / 20 5 10 10 PORTALES........................ 63 89 65 91 / 20 5 10 10 FORT SUMNER..................... 64 88 66 91 / 20 10 20 20 ROSWELL......................... 66 91 68 94 / 10 5 10 5 PICACHO......................... 61 85 62 88 / 20 5 10 30 ELK............................. 57 80 59 83 / 20 10 10 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
121 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THIS AFTN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. CU WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER N MTS AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN...DEVELOPING INTO SCT SHRA AND TSTMS AFTER 1830Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT POSSIBLE WITH STORMS AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE SSE ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND WSW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. USED HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL TO HONE IN ON POTENTIAL TIMING OF STORMS NEAR TERMINAL SITES...WITH KSAF AND KLVS MOST LIKELY IMPACTED. SIMILAR SETUP AS YESTERDAY SHOULD YIELD LATE EVENING POTENTIAL STORM ARRIVAL FOR KABQ AND KAEG. WILL MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND AMEND IF STORMS DEVELOP CLOSER TO TERMINAL SITES EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT REDUCED VSBYS NEAR KTCC AROUND 09Z...BUT LACK OF EXPECTED STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA TO INDUCE CATEGORICAL CHANGES PRECLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP EYE ON. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION...349 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014... .SYNOPSIS... FOUR CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCARS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY...BUT THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS. && .DISCUSSION... ONGOING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN TRUDGING DOWN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAS BEEN WELL-HANDLED BY THE HRRR THIS MORNING. BEST GUESS IS THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND SUNRISE. AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...IT SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE THAN WEDNESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS WORKED OVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND THERE IS LESS CLOUD DEBRIS TO START OFF THE DAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PUT THE THETA-E AXIS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND THE END OF THE 06Z HRRR RUN SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE SHIFTED POPS A BIT NORTHWESTWARD. WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD...BUT VERY SLOWLY. THUS...ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. ON FRIDAY...THETA-E AXIS GENERALLY FAVORS AN AREA FROM WEST CENTRAL NM ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND NE NM. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER HIGH WILL GENERALLY BE SQUARE ACROSS THE STATE. VERY LITTLE STEERING FLOW EXISTS...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE GUIDED MORE BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT NORTHWARD...WHICH MEANS THE STEERING FLOW WILL CHANGE TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...AND PERHAPS ALMOST DUE WESTWARD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STEER ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AWAY FROM NM...THUS...WITH NO REAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD A BIT. LOOKS LIKE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP INTO WESTERN NM ON MONDAY...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS. THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOMEWHAT INTO CENTRAL NM BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL BE LIMITED...IF NOT SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER...TUES/WED. THIS IS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE THAT ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE HIGH AND COMES BACK WESTWARD OVER TEXAS. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... CONVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE RGV AS OF THIS WRITING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SEEP WESTWARD TOWARDS THE ARIZONA BORDER...AND 24 HR DEW POINT CHANGES RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 DEGREES FROM KGNT WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD. THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL TO THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH FRIDAY...WHERE HIGHEST POPS FORECAST. DEW POINTS REMAIN FORECAST TO MIX OUT SOMEWHAT NORTHWEST AND FAR WEST CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...AND TREND STILL ON TRACK FOR ADDITIONAL DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS CENTRAL AND WEST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH THE H5 HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER ERN AZ...STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE A SLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DRIFT...WHILE FRIDAY COULD SEE RATHER SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN BOTH DAYS. HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH A SLOW CLIMB TO MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TREND TOWARDS FAIR BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU. LATE DAY HUMIDITIES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT WON/T FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT MOST LOCALES. HAINES FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO EVEN POOR SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL TODAY...AND FROM THE WEST CENTRAL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL FRIDAY. FORECAST MODELS WOBBLE THE UPPER HIGH CENTER AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH FAVORS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH CENTER MAY ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE FLOW OVER THE NRN US WEAKENS...BUT FEATURES WHICH WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT FOR NEW MEXICO ARE NOT DEFINED WELL ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1126 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THIS AFTN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. CU WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER N MTS AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN...DEVELOPING INTO SCT SHRA AND TSTMS AFTER 1830Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT POSSIBLE WITH STORMS AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE SSE ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND ESE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. USED HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL TO HONE IN ON POTENTIAL TIMING OF STORMS NEAR TERMINAL SITES...WITH KSAF AND KLVS MOST LIKELY IMPACTED. SIMILAR SETUP AS YESTERDAY SHOULD YIELD LATE EVENING POTENTIAL STORM ARRIVAL FOR KABQ AND KAEG. WILL MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND AMEND IF STORMS DEVELOP CLOSER TO TERMINAL SITES EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT REDUCED VSBYS NEAR KTCC AROUND 09Z...BUT LACK OF EXPECTED STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA TO INDUCE CATEGORICAL CHANGES PRECLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP EYE ON. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION...349 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014... .SYNOPSIS... FOUR CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCARS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY...BUT THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS. && .DISCUSSION... ONGOING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN TRUDGING DOWN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAS BEEN WELL-HANDLED BY THE HRRR THIS MORNING. BEST GUESS IS THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND SUNRISE. AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...IT SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE THAN WEDNESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS WORKED OVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND THERE IS LESS CLOUD DEBRIS TO START OFF THE DAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PUT THE THETA-E AXIS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND THE END OF THE 06Z HRRR RUN SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE SHIFTED POPS A BIT NORTHWESTWARD. WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD...BUT VERY SLOWLY. THUS...ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. ON FRIDAY...THETA-E AXIS GENERALLY FAVORS AN AREA FROM WEST CENTRAL NM ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND NE NM. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER HIGH WILL GENERALLY BE SQUARE ACROSS THE STATE. VERY LITTLE STEERING FLOW EXISTS...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE GUIDED MORE BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT NORTHWARD...WHICH MEANS THE STEERING FLOW WILL CHANGE TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...AND PERHAPS ALMOST DUE WESTWARD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STEER ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AWAY FROM NM...THUS...WITH NO REAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD A BIT. LOOKS LIKE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP INTO WESTERN NM ON MONDAY...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS. THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOMEWHAT INTO CENTRAL NM BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL BE LIMITED...IF NOT SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER...TUES/WED. THIS IS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE THAT ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE HIGH AND COMES BACK WESTWARD OVER TEXAS. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... CONVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE RGV AS OF THIS WRITING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SEEP WESTWARD TOWARDS THE ARIZONA BORDER...AND 24 HR DEW POINT CHANGES RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 DEGREES FROM KGNT WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD. THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL TO THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH FRIDAY...WHERE HIGHEST POPS FORECAST. DEW POINTS REMAIN FORECAST TO MIX OUT SOMEWHAT NORTHWEST AND FAR WEST CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...AND TREND STILL ON TRACK FOR ADDITIONAL DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS CENTRAL AND WEST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH THE H5 HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER ERN AZ...STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE A SLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DRIFT...WHILE FRIDAY COULD SEE RATHER SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN BOTH DAYS. HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH A SLOW CLIMB TO MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TREND TOWARDS FAIR BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU. LATE DAY HUMIDITIES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT WON/T FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT MOST LOCALES. HAINES FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO EVEN POOR SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL TODAY...AND FROM THE WEST CENTRAL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL FRIDAY. FORECAST MODELS WOBBLE THE UPPER HIGH CENTER AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH FAVORS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH CENTER MAY ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE FLOW OVER THE NRN US WEAKENS...BUT FEATURES WHICH WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT FOR NEW MEXICO ARE NOT DEFINED WELL ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
518 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR UNTIL 16Z EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. ISOLD -SHRA CENTRAL AND WRN NM UNTIL AROUND 15Z. UPPER HIGH CENTER TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN AZ WITH LIGHT NLY TO NE STEERING FLOW. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WND GUSTS TO 40KT TO BE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN AFT 18Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION...349 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014... .SYNOPSIS... FOUR CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCARS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY...BUT THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS. && .DISCUSSION... ONGOING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN TRUDGING DOWN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAS BEEN WELL-HANDLED BY THE HRRR THIS MORNING. BEST GUESS IS THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND SUNRISE. AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...IT SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE THAN WEDNESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS WORKED OVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND THERE IS LESS CLOUD DEBRIS TO START OFF THE DAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PUT THE THETA-E AXIS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND THE END OF THE 06Z HRRR RUN SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE SHIFTED POPS A BIT NORTHWESTWARD. WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD...BUT VERY SLOWLY. THUS...ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. ON FRIDAY...THETA-E AXIS GENERALLY FAVORS AN AREA FROM WEST CENTRAL NM ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND NE NM. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER HIGH WILL GENERALLY BE SQUARE ACROSS THE STATE. VERY LITTLE STEERING FLOW EXISTS...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE GUIDED MORE BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT NORTHWARD...WHICH MEANS THE STEERING FLOW WILL CHANGE TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...AND PERHAPS ALMOST DUE WESTWARD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STEER ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AWAY FROM NM...THUS...WITH NO REAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD A BIT. LOOKS LIKE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP INTO WESTERN NM ON MONDAY...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS. THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOMEWHAT INTO CENTRAL NM BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL BE LIMITED...IF NOT SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER...TUES/WED. THIS IS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE THAT ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE HIGH AND COMES BACK WESTWARD OVER TEXAS. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... CONVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE RGV AS OF THIS WRITING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SEEP WESTWARD TOWARDS THE ARIZONA BORDER...AND 24 HR DEW POINT CHANGES RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 DEGREES FROM KGNT WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD. THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL TO THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH FRIDAY...WHERE HIGHEST POPS FORECAST. DEW POINTS REMAIN FORECAST TO MIX OUT SOMEWHAT NORTHWEST AND FAR WEST CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...AND TREND STILL ON TRACK FOR ADDITIONAL DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS CENTRAL AND WEST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH THE H5 HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER ERN AZ...STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE A SLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DRIFT...WHILE FRIDAY COULD SEE RATHER SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN BOTH DAYS. HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH A SLOW CLIMB TO MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TREND TOWARDS FAIR BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU. LATE DAY HUMIDITIES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT WON/T FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT MOST LOCALES. HAINES FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO EVEN POOR SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL TODAY...AND FROM THE WEST CENTRAL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL FRIDAY. FORECAST MODELS WOBBLE THE UPPER HIGH CENTER AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH FAVORS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH CENTER MAY ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE FLOW OVER THE NRN US WEAKENS...BUT FEATURES WHICH WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT FOR NEW MEXICO ARE NOT DEFINED WELL ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
349 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... FOUR CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCARS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY...BUT THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS. && .DISCUSSION... ONGOING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN TRUDGING DOWN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAS BEEN WELL-HANDLED BY THE HRRR THIS MORNING. BEST GUESS IS THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND SUNRISE. AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...IT SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE THAN WEDNESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS WORKED OVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND THERE IS LESS CLOUD DEBRIS TO START OFF THE DAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PUT THE THETA-E AXIS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND THE END OF THE 06Z HRRR RUN SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE SHIFTED POPS A BIT NORTHWESTWARD. WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD...BUT VERY SLOWLY. THUS...ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. ON FRIDAY...THETA-E AXIS GENERALLY FAVORS AN AREA FROM WEST CENTRAL NM ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND NE NM. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER HIGH WILL GENERALLY BE SQUARE ACROSS THE STATE. VERY LITTLE STEERING FLOW EXISTS...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE GUIDED MORE BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT NORTHWARD...WHICH MEANS THE STEERING FLOW WILL CHANGE TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...AND PERHAPS ALMOST DUE WESTWARD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STEER ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AWAY FROM NM...THUS...WITH NO REAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD A BIT. LOOKS LIKE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP INTO WESTERN NM ON MONDAY...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS. THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOMEWHAT INTO CENTRAL NM BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL BE LIMITED...IF NOT SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER...TUES/WED. THIS IS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE THAT ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE HIGH AND COMES BACK WESTWARD OVER TEXAS. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... CONVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE RGV AS OF THIS WRITING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SEEP WESTWARD TOWARDS THE ARIZONA BORDER...AND 24 HR DEW POINT CHANGES RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 DEGREES FROM KGNT WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD. THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL TO THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH FRIDAY...WHERE HIGHEST POPS FORECAST. DEW POINTS REMAIN FORECAST TO MIX OUT SOMEWHAT NORTHWEST AND FAR WEST CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...AND TREND STILL ON TRACK FOR ADDITIONAL DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS CENTRAL AND WEST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH THE H5 HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER ERN AZ...STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE A SLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DRIFT...WHILE FRIDAY COULD SEE RATHER SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN BOTH DAYS. HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH A SLOW CLIMB TO MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TREND TOWARDS FAIR BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU. LATE DAY HUMIDITIES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT WON/T FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT MOST LOCALES. HAINES FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO EVEN POOR SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL TODAY...AND FROM THE WEST CENTRAL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL FRIDAY. FORECAST MODELS WOBBLE THE UPPER HIGH CENTER AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH FAVORS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH CENTER MAY ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE FLOW OVER THE NRN US WEAKENS...BUT FEATURES WHICH WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT FOR NEW MEXICO ARE NOT DEFINED WELL ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE ISOLD -TSRA/-SHARA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS ACROSS NW...N CENTRAL AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK EARLY THU MORNING...LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN TS COVERAGE DURING THE AFTN AND INTO THE NIGHT AS A WAVE IN THE EASTERLIES CROSSING NW MEXICO PUMPS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO NM. SCT TO NMRS CONVECTION SHOULD FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SPOTTIER ACTIVITY FARTHER E. WET MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT FM STRONGER CELLS. OTHERWISE...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SW SFC WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING. THE STRONGER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THIS FLOW SHOULD HELP BURN OFF THE LOW CLOUDS FAIRLY EARLY THU MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 93 61 92 62 / 20 20 20 10 DULCE........................... 85 49 88 47 / 40 40 30 30 CUBA............................ 84 54 87 54 / 50 40 40 40 GALLUP.......................... 88 57 87 56 / 50 40 30 30 EL MORRO........................ 81 53 80 54 / 50 40 50 40 GRANTS.......................... 85 55 85 55 / 50 40 40 40 QUEMADO......................... 83 56 83 57 / 40 40 40 40 GLENWOOD........................ 90 58 91 55 / 40 40 20 30 CHAMA........................... 81 46 80 46 / 60 40 50 40 LOS ALAMOS...................... 81 58 82 62 / 50 40 50 40 PECOS........................... 78 56 79 58 / 50 40 40 40 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 79 50 79 52 / 50 40 40 40 RED RIVER....................... 72 44 73 46 / 60 50 60 40 ANGEL FIRE...................... 74 43 76 43 / 60 50 50 50 TAOS............................ 83 52 83 51 / 50 40 40 30 MORA............................ 77 53 78 54 / 50 40 50 50 ESPANOLA........................ 86 57 88 58 / 40 40 30 30 SANTA FE........................ 83 57 83 61 / 50 40 30 40 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 86 58 87 59 / 40 30 30 30 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 87 65 88 66 / 40 30 20 30 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 88 67 90 68 / 30 30 20 30 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 90 64 91 65 / 20 30 20 30 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 89 65 90 67 / 30 30 20 30 LOS LUNAS....................... 91 62 92 61 / 20 30 20 30 RIO RANCHO...................... 90 64 92 66 / 30 30 20 30 SOCORRO......................... 91 67 94 68 / 20 30 10 20 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 85 57 86 61 / 50 40 30 30 TIJERAS......................... 86 58 87 61 / 50 40 30 30 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 82 56 83 56 / 40 40 30 30 CLINES CORNERS.................. 80 56 82 58 / 40 40 30 30 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 82 59 84 61 / 30 30 20 20 CARRIZOZO....................... 83 62 85 63 / 20 20 20 20 RUIDOSO......................... 79 56 80 56 / 30 30 20 20 CAPULIN......................... 79 56 80 58 / 50 40 30 30 RATON........................... 83 55 85 58 / 40 30 30 30 SPRINGER........................ 85 56 86 57 / 20 30 30 30 LAS VEGAS....................... 79 55 83 56 / 30 30 40 30 CLAYTON......................... 85 63 90 63 / 20 30 20 30 ROY............................. 81 60 84 61 / 20 30 20 30 CONCHAS......................... 87 67 91 66 / 20 30 20 30 SANTA ROSA...................... 84 63 88 64 / 20 30 20 30 TUCUMCARI....................... 88 66 93 66 / 10 20 5 20 CLOVIS.......................... 83 62 88 61 / 10 10 5 10 PORTALES........................ 86 63 90 62 / 10 10 5 10 FORT SUMNER..................... 85 65 89 65 / 10 20 5 20 ROSWELL......................... 89 66 92 67 / 10 10 5 10 PICACHO......................... 82 61 86 61 / 10 20 5 10 ELK............................. 78 58 81 60 / 10 20 10 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
136 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS NEW YORK WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVES NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY AND REMAIN FOR THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 115 PM UPDATE... WW 389 (SVR) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CNY/NE PA THROUGH 01Z. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND PRODUCERS IS STILL THERE...WITH ML CAPES BLDG INTO THE 1000-1500 RANGE...AND 0-3 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KT. A TRANSITION...HOWEVER...MORE TWDS A HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO IS STILL FORESEEN BY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY IN THE EVE...AS PER PREV DISC BLO. PREV DISC... 1030 AM UPDATE... RELATIVELY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE SKY COVER/POP/WX GRIDS...BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. SAT/RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MRNG SHOWS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDS OVER CNY/NE PA...WITH MRNG FOG/STRATUS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE. PRIND STILL ARE THAT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL FIRE UP OVER OUR WRN/NRN ZNS EARLY THIS AFTN (16-18Z)...WITH COVERAGE GROWING FARTHER E LATER IN THE DAY (18-20Z AND LATER). OUR LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR OUTPUT SUPPORTS THIS THINKING WELL. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL SVR STORMS GO...WE FEEL THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY (MOSTLY 18-21Z)...AS STORMS INITIALLY FORM...AND ARE ABLE TO PLUG INTO DEEP-LYRD SHEAR (0-3 KM VALUES OF 30-40 KT). STG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS REGARD. LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVE...HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BECOME THE GREATER CONCERN...MOSTLY OVER OUR SERN ZNS (NE PA AND THE WRN CATSKILLS). THE MAIN PLAYERS HERE ARE A STRENGTHENING UPR-LVL JET TO OUR N FROM LK ONT INTO ONT/QUE...A SLOW MOVING FRNTL BNDRY ACRS WRN/CNTRL NY...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (WITH INCREASING INPUT FROM ARTHUR BY EARLY EVE). THE LATEST BLENDED TPW/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ARTHUR`S MOISTURE PLUME MERGING INTO THE ALREADY EXISTING BAND OF FAIRLY HI PWAT AIR ALG THE MID-ATL COAST...AS OF LATE THIS MRNG. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS LARGER- SCALE MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN SHOWING BACKING 925-850 MB FLOW...WITH DEEPER TROP MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO ERN PA/NJ/SERN NY BY 22-02Z. MODEL TRAJS FROM THE LATEST GFS/RAP RUNS ALSO SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF ARTHUR`S INFLUENCE LIKELY INTO ERN PA BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME FRAME. THE ABV DESCRIBED CONFIGURATION OF THE UPR JET CORE...LOW-LVL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...PWAT...AND A SFC FRNT STILL MATCH THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR A "SWLY JET TYPE PRE" (PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT) WELL. AS STATED EARLIER...WE THINK THE MAIN FF THREAT IN OUR CWA WILL BE E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...BUT SINCE THE WATCH IS PRESENTLY UP AREA-WIDE...AND CONVECTION HAS NOT REALLY SHOWN ITSELF JUST YET...WE`LL LEAVE THE WATCH AREA AS IS FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE...OUR HIGH TEMP FCST THIS AFTN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE (GENERALLY UPR 70S-MID 80S...WITH SOME UPR 80S IN THE WYO/LACK VLYS OF NE PA). && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 3 AM UPDATE... AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO NY KEEPING TS ARTHUR ON THE COAST. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH EAST. THIS WILL PUSH SHOWERS OUT OF THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRI NGT AS ARTHUR MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE HIGH. WITH THE CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY PEAK MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S FOR A COLD 4TH. ON SAT THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BUT EXTEND NORTH INTO ONTARIO PROVIDING THE OUR CWA WITH DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER FRI NGT TO SAT NGT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY BUT WARMER THAN FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF ACTIVE WEATHER THIS AFTN...MED RNG FSCT INCORPORATED HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH LOOKED VERY GOOD. PTRN WILL FAVOR A BROAD UPR TROF WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVG THRU...LEADING TO A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE WITH A FNTL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE RGN MON NGT/TUE. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHRA/TSRA DVLPNG ACRS THE SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WILL SPREAD EWD THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVNG...WITH ASSCD MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF LATER TNGT. XPCT MVFR TNGT MANY AREAS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF BR/FG AND LOW CIGS. THE LOWER CLDS SHUD BREAK UP/IMPRV TO A BKN LOW-END VFR DECK TMRW MRNG. WINDS THIS AFTN LGT AND RATHER VRBL...XCPTN BEING POTNL FOR G30-40 WITH ANY TSRA. NW WINDS LATER TNGT ARND 5 KTS...INCRSNG TO 10-20 KTS ON FRI MRNG. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NGT THROUGH SUN...VFR. MON...VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KELM. MON NGT/TUE...MVFR PSBL IN SCT TSRA. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040- 043-044-047-048-072. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009- 015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC SHORT TERM...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
108 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS NEW YORK WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVES NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY AND REMAIN FOR THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT 115 PM UPDATE... WW 389 (SVR) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CNY/NE PA THROUGH 01Z. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND PRODUCERS IS STILL THERE...WITH ML CAPES BLDG INTO THE 1000-1500 RANGE...AND 0-3 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KT. A TRANSITION...HOWEVER...MORE TWDS A HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO IS STILL FORESEEN BY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY IN THE EVE...AS PER PREV DISC BLO. PREV DISC... 1030 AM UPDATE... RELATIVELY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE SKY COVER/POP/WX GRIDS...BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. SAT/RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MRNG SHOWS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDS OVER CNY/NE PA...WITH MRNG FOG/STRATUS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE. PRIND STILL ARE THAT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL FIRE UP OVER OUR WRN/NRN ZNS EARLY THIS AFTN (16-18Z)...WITH COVERAGE GROWING FARTHER E LATER IN THE DAY (18-20Z AND LATER). OUR LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR OUTPUT SUPPORTS THIS THINKING WELL. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL SVR STORMS GO...WE FEEL THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY (MOSTLY 18-21Z)...AS STORMS INITIALLY FORM...AND ARE ABLE TO PLUG INTO DEEP-LYRD SHEAR (0-3 KM VALUES OF 30-40 KT). STG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS REGARD. LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVE...HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BECOME THE GREATER CONCERN...MOSTLY OVER OUR SERN ZNS (NE PA AND THE WRN CATSKILLS). THE MAIN PLAYERS HERE ARE A STRENGTHENING UPR-LVL JET TO OUR N FROM LK ONT INTO ONT/QUE...A SLOW MOVING FRNTL BNDRY ACRS WRN/CNTRL NY...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (WITH INCREASING INPUT FROM ARTHUR BY EARLY EVE). THE LATEST BLENDED TPW/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ARTHUR`S MOISTURE PLUME MERGING INTO THE ALREADY EXISTING BAND OF FAIRLY HI PWAT AIR ALG THE MID-ATL COAST...AS OF LATE THIS MRNG. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS LARGER- SCALE MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN SHOWING BACKING 925-850 MB FLOW...WITH DEEPER TROP MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO ERN PA/NJ/SERN NY BY 22-02Z. MODEL TRAJS FROM THE LATEST GFS/RAP RUNS ALSO SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF ARTHUR`S INFLUENCE LIKELY INTO ERN PA BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME FRAME. THE ABV DESCRIBED CONFIGURATION OF THE UPR JET CORE...LOW-LVL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...PWAT...AND A SFC FRNT STILL MATCH THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR A "SWLY JET TYPE PRE" (PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT) WELL. AS STATED EARLIER...WE THINK THE MAIN FF THREAT IN OUR CWA WILL BE E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...BUT SINCE THE WATCH IS PRESENTLY UP AREA-WIDE...AND CONVECTION HAS NOT REALLY SHOWN ITSELF JUST YET...WE`LL LEAVE THE WATCH AREA AS IS FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE...OUR HIGH TEMP FCST THIS AFTN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE (GENERALLY UPR 70S-MID 80S...WITH SOME UPR 80S IN THE WYO/LACK VLYS OF NE PA). PREV DISC... 630 AM UPDATE... MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. DENSE FOG AND NO SHOWERS YET. SHOWERS IN WRN NY JUST TO THE NW OF THE CWA WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING AS THE INHIBITION BREAKS. FORGOT TO MENTION BEFORE THAT SPC STILL HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY WIND THEN HAIL AND MAYBE EVEN A TORNADO. BETTER DEEP SHEAR TODAY BUT CAPE LESS. ALSO WPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY ONE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHIC. THIS HAS NOT CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY. 3 AM UPDATE... CONTINUE TO BE IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM MONTREAL TO DETROIT. THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THEN STALL IN PA/NY TONIGHT. SOME SUNSHINE WILL DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE A 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES INTO WRN NY. THIS UL JET WILL PROVIDE LIFT WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE TRIGGER WILL BE AN UL TROF WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES ALSO MOVING EAST INTO WRN NY. TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL HELP FUNNEL DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF IT WHICH WILL RUN INTO THE FRONT. THIS WILL SET OFF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH HEAVY RAIN. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP HEAVY RAIN WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT COULD FALL IN AN HOUR. RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS CAUSED SOME AREAS TO BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. ALL MODELS SHOWING A WIDE SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. CONVECTION WILL START OVER WRN NY LATE MORNING AND MOVE SE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTN. TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVE BUT AS COLDER AIR COMES IN AND DAYTIME HEATING GETS MIXED TSTORMS WILL END FROM NW TO SE. ALSO UL DIVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN AS THE JET STREAK MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL END IN THE EVE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO NOT BRING THE CWA ANY OF ITS WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 3 AM UPDATE... AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO NY KEEPING TS ARTHUR ON THE COAST. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH EAST. THIS WILL PUSH SHOWERS OUT OF THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRI NGT AS ARTHUR MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE HIGH. WITH THE CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY PEAK MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S FOR A COLD 4TH. ON SAT THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BUT EXTEND NORTH INTO ONTARIO PROVIDING THE OUR CWA WITH DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER FRI NGT TO SAT NGT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY BUT WARMER THAN FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 510 AM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS/POPS AS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISC... HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FAIR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER MODESTLY AMPLIFIED TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES BY MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THEN RETURN WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR TROF AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY. MONDAY WILL BE THE MARGINAL DAY...WHICH COULD BE SALVAGED AS A DRY DAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A WARM/HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY MIDDAY ALONG WITH MVFR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THIS EVENING, ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT SATURATED SOILS AND WEAK MIXING WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE TODAY AROUND 5 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY THROUGH SUN...VFR. MON...VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040- 043-044-047-048-072. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009- 015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...JAB/RRM AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1057 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS NEW YORK WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVES NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY AND REMAIN FOR THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1030 AM UPDATE... RELATIVELY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE SKY COVER/POP/WX GRIDS...BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. SAT/RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MRNG SHOWS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDS OVER CNY/NE PA...WITH MRNG FOG/STRATUS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE. PRIND STILL ARE THAT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL FIRE UP OVER OUR WRN/NRN ZNS EARLY THIS AFTN (16-18Z)...WITH COVERAGE GROWING FARTHER E LATER IN THE DAY (18-20Z AND LATER). OUR LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR OUTPUT SUPPORTS THIS THINKING WELL. AS FAR AS POTENTIAL SVR STORMS GO...WE FEEL THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY (MOSTLY 18-21Z)...AS STORMS INITIALLY FORM...AND ARE ABLE TO PLUG INTO DEEP-LYRD SHEAR (0-3 KM VALUES OF 30-40 KT). STG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS REGARD. LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVE...HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BECOME THE GREATER CONCERN...MOSTLY OVER OUR SERN ZNS (NE PA AND THE WRN CATSKILLS). THE MAIN PLAYERS HERE ARE A STRENGTHENING UPR-LVL JET TO OUR N FROM LK ONT INTO ONT/QUE...A SLOW MOVING FRNTL BNDRY ACRS WRN/CNTRL NY...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (WITH INCREASING INPUT FROM ARTHUR BY EARLY EVE). THE LATEST BLENDED TPW/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ARTHUR`S MOISTURE PLUME MERGING INTO THE ALREADY EXISTING BAND OF FAIRLY HI PWAT AIR ALG THE MID-ATL COAST...AS OF LATE THIS MRNG. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS LARGER- SCALE MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN SHOWING BACKING 925-850 MB FLOW...WITH DEEPER TROP MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO ERN PA/NJ/SERN NY BY 22-02Z. MODEL TRAJS FROM THE LATEST GFS/RAP RUNS ALSO SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF ARTHUR`S INFLUENCE LIKELY INTO ERN PA BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME FRAME. THE ABV DESCRIBED CONFIGURATION OF THE UPR JET CORE...LOW-LVL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...PWAT...AND A SFC FRNT STILL MATCH THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR A "SWLY JET TYPE PRE" (PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT) WELL. AS STATED EARLIER...WE THINK THE MAIN FF THREAT IN OUR CWA WILL BE E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...BUT SINCE THE WATCH IS PRESENTLY UP AREA-WIDE...AND CONVECTION HAS NOT REALLY SHOWN ITSELF JUST YET...WE`LL LEAVE THE WATCH AREA AS IS FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE...OUR HIGH TEMP FCST THIS AFTN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE (GENERALLY UPR 70S-MID 80S...WITH SOME UPR 80S IN THE WYO/LACK VLYS OF NE PA). PREV DISC... 630 AM UPDATE... MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. DENSE FOG AND NO SHOWERS YET. SHOWERS IN WRN NY JUST TO THE NW OF THE CWA WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING AS THE INHIBITION BREAKS. FORGOT TO MENTION BEFORE THAT SPC STILL HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY WIND THEN HAIL AND MAYBE EVEN A TORNADO. BETTER DEEP SHEAR TODAY BUT CAPE LESS. ALSO WPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY ONE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHIC. THIS HAS NOT CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY. 3 AM UPDATE... CONTINUE TO BE IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM MONTREAL TO DETROIT. THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THEN STALL IN PA/NY TONIGHT. SOME SUNSHINE WILL DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE A 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES INTO WRN NY. THIS UL JET WILL PROVIDE LIFT WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE TRIGGER WILL BE AN UL TROF WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES ALSO MOVING EAST INTO WRN NY. TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL HELP FUNNEL DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF IT WHICH WILL RUN INTO THE FRONT. THIS WILL SET OFF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH HEAVY RAIN. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP HEAVY RAIN WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT COULD FALL IN AN HOUR. RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS CAUSED SOME AREAS TO BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. ALL MODELS SHOWING A WIDE SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. CONVECTION WILL START OVER WRN NY LATE MORNING AND MOVE SE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTN. TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVE BUT AS COLDER AIR COMES IN AND DAYTIME HEATING GETS MIXED TSTORMS WILL END FROM NW TO SE. ALSO UL DIVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN AS THE JET STREAK MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL END IN THE EVE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO NOT BRING THE CWA ANY OF ITS WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 3 AM UPDATE... AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO NY KEEPING TS ARTHUR ON THE COAST. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH EAST. THIS WILL PUSH SHOWERS OUT OF THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRI NGT AS ARTHUR MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE HIGH. WITH THE CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY PEAK MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S FOR A COLD 4TH. ON SAT THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BUT EXTEND NORTH INTO ONTARIO PROVIDING THE OUR CWA WITH DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER FRI NGT TO SAT NGT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY BUT WARMER THAN FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 510 AM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS/POPS AS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISC... HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FAIR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER MODESTLY AMPLIFIED TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES BY MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THEN RETURN WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR TROF AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY. MONDAY WILL BE THE MARGINAL DAY...WHICH COULD BE SALVAGED AS A DRY DAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A WARM/HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY MIDDAY ALONG WITH MVFR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THIS EVENING, ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT SATURATED SOILS AND WEAK MIXING WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE TODAY AROUND 5 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY THROUGH SUN...VFR. MON...VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040- 043-044-047-048-072. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009- 015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...JAB/RRM AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HURRICAN ARTHUR WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY... CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN HURRICANE ARTHUR WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NC COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE NC MOUNTAINS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF ARTHUR. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT STALLED JUST EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SURFACE WAVE LOCATED ON THE FRONT NEAR KHKY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ARTHUR HAS MADE ITS ANTICIPATED NORTHEAST TURN. LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THE BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT BROKE OFF ARTHUR AFTER MIDDAY CONTINUES TO SPILL NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING PER RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS NEAR KEWN AND KNCA. RECEIVED MIXED SIGNALS FROM TRADITIONAL NWP AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ABOUT THE PREFERRED PLACEMENT AND TRANSITION OF RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR. IN GENERAL THE HRRR AND THE NSSL ARW HAVE HANDLED THIS SYSTEM WELL. THE GENERAL MESSAGE THEY ARE ADVERTISING IS THAT THE RAIN DISK ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR WILL STAY EAST OF MOST OF THE RAH CWA BUT IT WILL GRAZE ACROSS SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES AND PARTS OF WILSON...EDGECOMBE AND PERHAPS CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. THESE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING MORE THAN AN INCH AND A HALF. THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP EAST AND MAY WORK INTO THE TRIAD LATER THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BUT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE THE RAH CWA IN SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES WILL REQUIRE SOME MONITORING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF ARTHUR REACHES CAPE HATTERAS AT AROUND 400 AM. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE TRIAD TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WITH SKIES BECOMING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IT WIL BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER AND DRIER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. -BLAES && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY... SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...AND ACCOMPANYING 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL BUILD ESE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SAT... THEN OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN. AFTERNOON SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ON AVG...COMBINED WITH MILD TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S...WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. CALM AND RELATIVE CLEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER NC...WITH PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1390 METERS...WILL SUPPORT LOWS SUN MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES OR SO IN URBAN AREAS - THOUGH SHY OF RECORDS FOR THE DATE (6TH) OF 53 DEGREES AT GSO AND 54 DEGREES AT RDU AND FAY. SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY...IN DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING/ BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS TRENDING UP - BUT STILL IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE - WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 325 PM THURSDAY... NC WILL BE IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN CANADA AND A SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GOM. THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY BE HELD AT BAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC BENEATH THE LOWER HEIGHTS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A PRONOUNCED LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH - ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUB-TROPICAL SURFACE RIDGING/THE BERMUDA HIGH - OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK (TUE NIGHT-THU)... WHEN BOTH 1) OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION TO THE NORTH/NEARER THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE VA BORDER AND 2) NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TAIL END OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC FLOW TO OUR NORTH COULD GRAZE CENTRAL NC. THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IN THE MID LEVELS...INVOF THE FL PENINSULA...IS A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH TO RESULT IN EXTREME HEAT AT THE LATITUDE OF CENTRAL NC. AS SUCH...HIGHS WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR MOST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MULTIPLE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AT KFAY...KRWI AND KRDU THROUGH AROUND 04Z. ANOTHER ARE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND THEY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AT KINT AND KGSO THIS EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE AFTER 02Z. THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE PERIODS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND THEN GENERALLY IMPROVE INTO THE VFR RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LONG TERM: IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR...FAIR WEATHER WITH NO ADVERSE AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. AN ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. -BLAES && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...BLAES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HURRICAN ARTHUR WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1150 AM THURSDAY... COMPLICATED FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS CENTRAL NC REMAINS BETWEEN HURRICANE ARTHUR WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NC COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS IN THE ANALYSIS NEAR GREENSBORO THAT EXTENDS NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION...THE MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL REGION OF FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THIS FEATURE WAS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH THAT REGION EARLIER TODAY. THE COMPLICATED INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES LEADS TI A DIFFICULT FORECAST IN RESOLVING DETAILS ABOUT WHERE OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL SETUP AND MOVE. AHEAD OF ARTHUR IN A REGION OF GOOD INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE 87-90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT. LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT BAND OF SHOWERS HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WHILE A SURGE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. HAVE RECEIVED MIXED SIGNALS FROM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ABOUT THE PREFERRED PLACEMENT AND TRANSITION OF RAIN BANDS WITH ARTHUR BUT THE HRRR IN GENERAL HAS HANDLED THIS SYSTEM WELL ALTHOUGH IT FAILED TO CAPTURE THE EARLY MORNING WESTERN PIEDMONT CONVECTION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...SHOWERS ROTATING WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ARTHUR WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BANDS WILL BE LOCATED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE...A REGION TYPICALLY NOT PREFERRED FOR SEVERE CONVECTION OR TORNADOES. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE THE RAH CWA IN SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES WILL REQUIRE SOME MONITORING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE NC MOUNTAINS ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN DRIFT EAST. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL SOON BE REALIZED ACROSS CENTRAL NC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPLICATED BY ONGOING OR DEVELOPING CONVECTION AS WELL. IN GENERAL HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE IN THE 86 TO 92 RANGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. IN BETWEEN...CONVECTION COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMALIZED ACROSS THE NORTHER PIEDMONT AND TRIANGLE AREA. WHILE ARTHURS TRACK HAS SHIFTED WEST DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A LONGER PERIOD OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. EXPECT AROUND AND INCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN WAYNE AND SAMPSON COUNTIES WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING TO THE WEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF ARTHUR REACHES CAPE HATTERAS AT AROUND 400 AM. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE TRIAD TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WITH SKIES BECOMING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON. A COOLER AIR MASS SPREADS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET ON FRIDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IT WIL BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER AND DRIER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. -BLAES && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY... BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...BROAD RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY FOR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND WITH AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST BY THE GFS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE DEW POINTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY APPROACH OR...IN SOME LOCATIONS...FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW 50F SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY AROUND 60 SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW 50S SPRINKLED IN ESPECIALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE IN THE DRIER AIR. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY... GRADUALLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THE SURFACE PATTERN BECOMES MORE TYPICAL WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IN PLACE...MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY WEEKEND FORECAST IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...THEN AS THE MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AND HEIGHTS ALOFT START TO FALL...WILL GRADUALLY INTRODUCE AND ALSO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. ON MONDAY...THE FORECAST WILL SHOW ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KGSB TO KFAY NEAR ANY SEA BREEZE AS ALLUDED TO BY THE ECMWF...THEN ON TUESDAY THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...THOUGH WITH BETTER CHANCES RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE AREA AGAIN IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. BY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST GET CLOSE TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BASED ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SEEM REASONABLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND...NEAR 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A STEADY RISE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM NEAR 60 TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT THE END OF THIS LONG-TERM PERIOD. CERTAINLY DEPENDING ON THE HIGHS AND THE SURFACE DEW POINTS AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD...A RETURN TO NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MULTIPLE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AT KFAY...KRWI AND KRDU THROUGH AROUND 04Z. ANOTHER ARE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND THEY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AT KINT AND KGSO THIS EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE AFTER 02Z. THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE PERIODS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND THEN GENERALLY IMPROVE INTO THE VFR RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LONG TERM: IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR...FAIR WEATHER WITH NO ADVERSE AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. AN ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. -BLAES && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...DJF LONG TERM...DJF AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1150 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1150 AM THURSDAY... COMPLICATED FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS CENTRAL NC REMAINS BETWEEN HURRICANE ARTHUR WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NC COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS IN THE ANALYSIS NEAR GREENSBORO THAT EXTENDS NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION...THE MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL REGION OF FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THIS FEATURE WAS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH THAT REGION EARLIER TODAY. THE COMPLICATED INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES LEADS TI A DIFFICULT FORECAST IN RESOLVING DETAILS ABOUT WHERE OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL SETUP AND MOVE. AHEAD OF ARTHUR IN A REGION OF GOOD INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE 87-90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT. LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT BAND OF SHOWERS HAS WEAKEND CONSIDERABLY WHILE A SURGE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. HAVE RECEIVED MIXED SIGNALS FROM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ABOUT THE PREFERRED PLACEMENT AND TRANSITION OF RAIN BANDS WITH ARTHUR BUT THE HRRR IN GENERAL HAS HANDLED THIS SYSTEM WELL ALTHOUGH IT FAILED TO CAPTURE THE EARLY MORNING WESTERN PIEDMONT CONVECTION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...SHOWERS ROTATING WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ARTHUR WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BANDS WILL BE LOCATED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE...A REGION TYPICALLY NOT PREFERRED FOR SEVERE CONVECTION OR TORNADOES. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE THE RAH CWA IN SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES WILL REQUIRE SOME MONITORING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE NC MOUNTAINS ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN DRIFT EAST. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL SOON BE REALIZED ACROSS CENTRAL NC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPLICATED BY ONGOING OR DEVELOPING CONVECTION AS WELL. IN GENERAL HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE IN THE 86 TO 92 RANGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. IN BETWEEN...CONVECTION COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMALIZED ACROSS THE NORTHER PIEDMONT AND TRIANGLE AREA. WHILE ARTHURS TRACK HAS SHIFTED WEST DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A LONGER PERIOD OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. EXPECT AROUND AND INCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN WAYNE AND SAMPSON COUNTIES WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING TO THE WEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF ARTHUR REACHES CAPE HATTERAS AT AROUND 400 AM. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE TRIAD TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WITH SKIES BECOMING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON. A COOLER AIR MASS SPREADS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET ON FRIDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IT WIL BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER AND DRIER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. -BLAES && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY... BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...BROAD RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY FOR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND WITH AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST BY THE GFS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE DEW POINTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY APPROACH OR...IN SOME LOCATIONS...FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW 50F SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY AROUND 60 SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW 50S SPRINKLED IN ESPECIALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE IN THE DRIER AIR. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY... GRADUALLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THE SURFACE PATTERN BECOMES MORE TYPICAL WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IN PLACE...MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY WEEKEND FORECAST IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...THEN AS THE MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AND HEIGHTS ALOFT START TO FALL...WILL GRADUALLY INTRODUCE AND ALSO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. ON MONDAY...THE FORECAST WILL SHOW ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KGSB TO KFAY NEAR ANY SEA BREEZE AS ALLUDED TO BY THE ECMWF...THEN ON TUESDAY THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...THOUGH WITH BETTER CHANCES RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE AREA AGAIN IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. BY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST GET CLOSE TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BASED ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SEEM REASONABLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND...NEAR 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A STEADY RISE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM NEAR 60 TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT THE END OF THIS LONG-TERM PERIOD. CERTAINLY DEPENDING ON THE HIGHS AND THE SURFACE DEW POINTS AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD...A RETURN TO NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 700 AM THURSDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE PRETTY ACTIVE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ARTHUR MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST WITH RAINBANDS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. A LINE OF SHOWERS FORMED A FEW HOURS AGO BETWEEN KRDU AND KGSO AND CONTINUES TO HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY THERE. AS SOME OF THE OUTER BANDS OF ARTHUR ARE APPROACHING THE COAST...THIS LINE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST HAS BEGUN TO RETROGRADE A BIT AND IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT KGSO WILL SEE A SHOWER IN THE VICINITY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS THAN WILL KRDU. TAFS ARE CURRENTLY SET UP TO HANDLE THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT EASTERN SITES AND WILL RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z. AS FAR AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS CONCERNED...MOST SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PLUS OR MINUS 18Z...WHEN PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE TRIAD AND RAINBANDS FROM ARTHUR BEGIN AFFECTING EASTERN SITES. ARTHUR WILL PICK UP SPEED DURING THE EVENING AND MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 25 KTS IN CONVECTION BUT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIONS...GUSTS SHOULD STAY 20 KTS OR BELOW. LONG TERM: ARTHUR WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NO SIGNIFICANT THREATS TO AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRD/WSS NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...DJF LONG TERM...DJF AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
127 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS OUR REGION THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY FRI. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 912 PM WEDNESDAY... 00Z GSO SOUNDING A LITTLE CONCERNING THIS EVENING...DEPICTING DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/EVENING (JUST SHY OF 7 DEG C/KM). LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS STILL DEPICTS A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE YADKIN RIVER VALLEY WITH MLCAPE VALUES 2500-3000 J/KG AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. FINALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR SUGGEST A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS LIFTING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT DOES. THUS...EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER THE NW PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE TRIAD REGION. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MILES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH WIND GUST NEAR 60 MPH OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO PERSIST BUT SHOULD BE OF LESS INTENSITY AS LOW LEVEL AIR MASS STABILIZES THANKS TO NOCTURNAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE. -WSS IN THE MEANTIME...TS ARTHUR WILL BE RECURVING AND PARALLELING THE COAST...ARRIVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NC COAST THURSDAY EVENING...WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AND ACCELERATE NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. INITIAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM TS ARTHUR SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...WILL BE INCREASING THE INITIAL CHANCE POPS EARLY IN THE WEST TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON...CONCURRENT WITH INTRODUCTION OF 50-60 PERCENT POPS IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT BY HEAVIER CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN...BUT HIGHS WILL REACH 90 GIVEN ANY SUN AT ALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MERGING WITH ARTHUR THURSDAY NIGHT. ARTHUR WILL THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AS IT IS PICKED UP BY THE UPPER TROF. AS SUCH...LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED EAST OF I-95 OVERNIGHT...WITH POPS IN THE WEST TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY MORNING. BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT...INITIAL DRYING IN THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW MINS TO FALL TO THE MID 60S...WHILE THE EAST WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WITH LINGERING PRECIP IN THE NORTHEAST TAPERING OFF BY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST...THE WELCOME CHANGE OF AIRMASS WILL FEATURE NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE 50S...ALLOWING MINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY... SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...AND ACCOMPANYING 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL BUILD ESE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH SAT...THEN OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SUPPORTED BY AFTERNOON SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ON AVG...WILL HIGHLIGHT A COMFORTABLE START TO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S. CALM AND RELATIVE CLEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER NC...WITH PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1390 METERS...WILL SUPPORT LOWS SUN MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 50S...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES OR SO IN URBAN AREAS - LIKELY A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORDS FOR THE DATE (7TH) OF 53 TO 54 DEGREES. SUN WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY...IN RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING/ BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS TRENDING BACK UP - INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY... CENTRAL NC DURING THE SUMMERTIME - HOT AND A SMATTERING OF DIURNALLY- DRIVEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. NC WILL BE IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN CANADA AND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GOM. THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY BE HELD AT BAY OVER THE OH VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH REGIME AND LEE TROUGHING OVER THE CAROLINAS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND RELATIVELY SPARSE...WITH RELATIVE BETTER PROBABILITIES (AROUND 30 PERCENT) TUE-WED...WHEN NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TAIL END OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC FLOW TO OUR NORTH COULD GRAZE CENTRAL NC. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. LOWS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE PRETTY ACTIVE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ARTHUR MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST WITH RAINBANDS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. FIRST AND FOREMOST...WATCHING A LINE OF STORMS THAT HAS FORMED IN SOUTHERN VA WITH DEVELOPMENT BACK TOWARDS THE TRIAD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS STORMS WILL NOT AFFECT THIS AREA BUT THERE ARE STILL MANY ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES FAVORABLE FOR SOME ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT MAY HAVE TO AMEND LATER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS. MODEL GUIDANCE AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOW STRATUS LATER THIS MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. AS FAR AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS CONCERNED...MOST SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PLUS OR MINUS 18Z...WHEN PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE TRIAD AND RAINBANDS FROM ARTHUR BEGIN AFFECTING EASTERN SITES. ARTHUR WILL PICK UP SPEED DURING THE EVENING AND MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 25 KTS IN CONVECTION BUT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIONS...GUSTS SHOULD STAY 20 KTS OR BELOW. LONG TERM: ARTHUR WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NO SIGNIFICANT THREATS TO AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...WSS/MLM SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 ALMOST RIGHT AFTER THE PREVIOUS UPDATE WAS SENT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTED TO DEVELOP CENTERED AROUND THE FARGO AREA...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FROM NEAR FOSSTON DOWN TOWARDS THE RANSOM/SARGENT AREA. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING OVER THE SAME AREA...AND NONE OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT. THE WRF SEEMS THE CLOSEST BUT HAS TOO MUCH PRECIP IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY. FROM THE SPC MESO PAGE AND WV LOOP...IT SEEMS THAT THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WHERE THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING IN ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THINK THAT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WEAKEN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF AND THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHIFT TO THE EAST. BUMPED UP POPS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE 60-70 PERCENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY THEN BECOMING 40-50 PERCENT A BIT LATER ON. WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENT LATER. UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BUT MORE SCATTERED STORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL RRV AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND. MODERATE INSTABILITY CONTINUES BUT BULK SHEAR IS NOT THAT HIGH. WILL MONITOR FOR ANY STRENGTHENING OF STORMS BUT DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALSO CONCERNED WITH SEVERE CHANCES SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAP HAVING TROUBLE WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF CURRENT CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE MORE REALISTIC HRRR...SO WILL USE THE LATTER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS TRANSITIONING TO A GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SATURDAY AND BEYOND. 20 UTC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF NON-SEVERE CONVECTION. THE FIRST IS A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AND THE SECOND IS MUCH SMALLER ALONG THE EASTERN ND/SD BORDER. THIS SECOND AREA OF STORMS HAS THE GREATER POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE GIVEN A WEAKENING CAP IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FORCING WITH SHORT-WAVE ALOFT SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH AND MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION. OVERALL...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DRYING CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. SATURDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN AFTERNOON ENVIRONMENT THAT IS HIGHLY UNSTABLE (SFC CAPE RISING TO 4000 J/KG)...BUT CAPPED BY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MAIN QUESTION IS IF SFC CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED AND/OR MID-LEVELS WILL COOL ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. WILL FOLLOW SPC THINKING IN THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD BEGIN ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITION INTO SOME KIND OF MCS AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN LATE SATURDAY/ EARLY SUNDAY. THIS IDEA IS COVERED WELL IN SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S) WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT INDICATING A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...PLACING THIS REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE FLATTENS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ARE HARD TO TIME...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE A SITUATION WHERE MOST DAYS WILL HAVE ISOLD-SCATTERED T-STORMS FOR A SHORT DURATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES...POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AROUND KFAR...KTVF...AND KBJI. FOR NOW KEPT VCTS MENTION AT THOSE SITES AS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER HIT OR MISS. WINDS SHOULD START TO COME DOWN TO BELOW 12 KTS LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH. A FEW OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME 1 TO 5SM LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING TOWARDS MORNING. THINK SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT THINK THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH WIND FOR ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AT SOME MVFR CIGS AT KBJI...SO INCLUDED THOSE BUT HAVE EVERYONE ELSE STAYING VFR. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT AROUND TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...ROGERS LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
933 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA AS SOME CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR GLEN ULLIN WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. EXPECT ANY COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. FOR TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTATIONS ARE LOW FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. HRRR MESO MODEL TRIES TO GET A LINE OF CONVECTION GOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISHES THE CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. LOOKS AS THOUGH MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL FOCUS MORE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THEN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER WARM UP BY NEXT WEEKS END. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY LEADS TO SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY BY DAYS END INTO THE EVENING. COMPARED TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE SITUATION LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS SATURDAY EVENING/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING 40-50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME CIN WILL BE PRESENT...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY INHIBITION. SPC EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER MORE SOUTH TO INCLUDE MORE OF WEST AND CENTRAL ND TO ACCOMMODATE THOSE AREAS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL IMPULSES AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET. SURFACE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OFF TO MY NORTHEAST MAY TRIGGER ANOTHER STORM ON SUNDAY AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE LOOKS DRY SUNDAY DAYTIME WITH A BREEZY DRYING-OUT NORTHWEST WIND. ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE...TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MORE ROBUST WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY FOR THIS LATER FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND 80S...BUT ALMOST DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A RETURN OF MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND AND CONTINUED INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT BEYOND THE EXTEND PERIOD...NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PTNS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND TONIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KJMS TERMINAL. ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN ND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTERLY AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE TOWARDS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL CREATED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORAGE AT BOTH ALAMEDA DAM AND LAKE DARLING. RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM INCREASED TO 1060 CFS ON WEDNESDAY. RELEASES FROM LAKE DARLING DAM WILL REMAIN AROUND 2000 CFS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ON THE SOURIS RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJS SHORT TERM...WAA LONG TERM...NH AVIATION...JJS HYDROLOGY...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
908 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 852 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY QUIET WEATHER. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER SOME OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ONLY LEAVING SOME NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WHERE A FEW LITTLE SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS NEAR A WARM FRONT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 FORECAST UPDATE WILL REMOVE POPS OVER NWRN ND AS NO DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING AS THE WAVE PUSHES TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS TOWARDS PTNS OF CTRL ND WITH WARM FRONT LOITERING IN THE AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. FOR TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTATIONS ARE LOW FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. HRRR MESO MODEL TRIES TO GET A LINE OF CONVECTION GOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISHES THE CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. LOOKS AS THOUGH MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL FOCUS MORE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THEN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER WARM UP BY NEXT WEEKS END. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY LEADS TO SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY BY DAYS END INTO THE EVENING. COMPARED TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE SITUATION LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS SATURDAY EVENING/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING 40-50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME CIN WILL BE PRESENT...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY INHIBITION. SPC EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER MORE SOUTH TO INCLUDE MORE OF WEST AND CENTRAL ND TO ACCOMMODATE THOSE AREAS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL IMPULSES AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET. SURFACE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OFF TO MY NORTHEAST MAY TRIGGER ANOTHER STORM ON SUNDAY AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE LOOKS DRY SUNDAY DAYTIME WITH A BREEZY DRYING-OUT NORTHWEST WIND. ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE...TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MORE ROBUST WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY FOR THIS LATER FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND 80S...BUT ALMOST DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A RETURN OF MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND AND CONTINUED INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT BEYOND THE EXTEND PERIOD...NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PTNS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND TONIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KJMS TERMINAL. ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN ND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTERLY AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE TOWARDS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL CREATED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORAGE AT BOTH ALAMEDA DAM AND LAKE DARLING. RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM INCREASED TO 1060 CFS ON WEDNESDAY. RELEASES FROM LAKE DARLING DAM WILL REMAIN AROUND 2000 CFS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ON THE SOURIS RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJS SHORT TERM...WAA LONG TERM...NH AVIATION...JJS HYDROLOGY...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
650 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BUT MORE SCATTERED STORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL RRV AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND. MODERATE INSTABILITY CONTINUES BUT BULK SHEAR IS NOT THAT HIGH. WILL MONITOR FOR ANY STRENGTHENING OF STORMS BUT DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALSO CONCERNED WITH SEVERE CHANCES SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAP HAVING TROUBLE WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF CURRENT CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE MORE REALISTIC HRRR...SO WILL USE THE LATTER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS TRANSITIONING TO A GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SATURDAY AND BEYOND. 20 UTC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF NON-SEVERE CONVECTION. THE FIRST IS A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AND THE SECOND IS MUCH SMALLER ALONG THE EASTERN ND/SD BORDER. THIS SECOND AREA OF STORMS HAS THE GREATER POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE GIVEN A WEAKENING CAP IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FORCING WITH SHORT-WAVE ALOFT SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH AND MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION. OVERALL...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DRYING CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. SATURDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN AFTERNOON ENVIRONMENT THAT IS HIGHLY UNSTABLE (SFC CAPE RISING TO 4000 J/KG)...BUT CAPPED BY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MAIN QUESTION IS IF SFC CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED AND/OR MID-LEVELS WILL COOL ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. WILL FOLLOW SPC THINKING IN THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD BEGIN ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITION INTO SOME KIND OF MCS AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN LATE SATURDAY/ EARLY SUNDAY. THIS IDEA IS COVERED WELL IN SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S) WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT INDICATING A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...PLACING THIS REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE FLATTENS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ARE HARD TO TIME...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE A SITUATION WHERE MOST DAYS WILL HAVE ISOLD-SCATTERED T-STORMS FOR A SHORT DURATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES...POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AROUND KFAR...KTVF...AND KBJI. FOR NOW KEPT VCTS MENTION AT THOSE SITES AS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER HIT OR MISS. WINDS SHOULD START TO COME DOWN TO BELOW 12 KTS LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH. A FEW OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME 1 TO 5SM LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING TOWARDS MORNING. THINK SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT THINK THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH WIND FOR ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AT SOME MVFR CIGS AT KBJI...SO INCLUDED THOSE BUT HAVE EVERYONE ELSE STAYING VFR. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT AROUND TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...ROGERS LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 FORECAST UPDATE WILL REMOVE POPS OVER NWRN ND AS NO DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING AS THE WAVE PUSHES TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS TOWARDS PTNS OF CTRL ND WITH WARM FRONT LOITERING IN THE AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. FOR TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTATIONS ARE LOW FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. HRRR MESO MODEL TRIES TO GET A LINE OF CONVECTION GOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISHES THE CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. LOOKS AS THOUGH MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL FOCUS MORE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THEN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER WARM UP BY NEXT WEEKS END. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY LEADS TO SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY BY DAYS END INTO THE EVENING. COMPARED TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE SITUATION LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS SATURDAY EVENING/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING 40-50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME CIN WILL BE PRESENT...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY INHIBITION. SPC EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER MORE SOUTH TO INCLUDE MORE OF WEST AND CENTRAL ND TO ACCOMMODATE THOSE AREAS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL IMPULSES AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET. SURFACE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OFF TO MY NORTHEAST MAY TRIGGER ANOTHER STORM ON SUNDAY AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE LOOKS DRY SUNDAY DAYTIME WITH A BREEZY DRYING-OUT NORTHWEST WIND. ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE...TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MORE ROBUST WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY FOR THIS LATER FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND 80S...BUT ALMOST DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A RETURN OF MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND AND CONTINUED INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT BEYOND THE EXTEND PERIOD...NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PTNS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND TONIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KJMS TERMINAL. ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN ND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTERLY AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE TOWARDS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL CREATED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORAGE AT BOTH ALAMEDA DAM AND LAKE DARLING. RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM INCREASED TO 1060 CFS ON WEDNESDAY. RELEASES FROM LAKE DARLING DAM WILL REMAIN AROUND 2000 CFS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ON THE SOURIS RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJS SHORT TERM...WAA LONG TERM...NH AVIATION...JJS HYDROLOGY...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1015 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 .AVIATION... WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 12KTS ACROSS NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER INCREASE DURING THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. GUSTS 20-25KTS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE CHANCE OF LATE DAY STORMS IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. 30 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014/ .AVIATION... A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 12KTS ACROSS WEST/NORTHWEST SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. GUSTS OF 20-25KTS. 30 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014/ .DISCUSSION... A FEW SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF OUR NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES AND THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN HIGH-RES MODELS OF SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING THERE. RAP SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD QPF SIGNALS... AND ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION... IT APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN PHILOSOPHY FOR THE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SOME LOW POPS NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE FRONT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 91 71 94 / 10 10 10 10 HOBART OK 68 93 70 97 / 10 10 10 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 71 93 72 96 / 20 10 10 10 GAGE OK 68 93 69 97 / 10 10 20 10 PONCA CITY OK 71 91 73 97 / 10 10 10 10 DURANT OK 70 93 71 95 / 10 10 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1012 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS HAVE DISSIPATED. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014/ AVIATION... A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 12KTS ACROSS WEST/NORTHWEST SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. GUSTS OF 20-25KTS. 30 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014/ DISCUSSION... A FEW SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF OUR NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES AND THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN HIGH-RES MODELS OF SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING THERE. RAP SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD QPF SIGNALS... AND ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION... IT APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN PHILOSOPHY FOR THE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SOME LOW POPS NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE FRONT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 91 71 94 / 10 10 10 10 HOBART OK 68 93 70 97 / 10 10 10 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 71 93 72 96 / 10 10 10 10 GAGE OK 68 93 69 97 / 10 10 20 10 PONCA CITY OK 71 91 73 97 / 0 10 10 10 DURANT OK 70 93 71 95 / 10 10 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 .AVIATION... A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 12KTS ACROSS WEST/NORTHWEST SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. GUSTS OF 20-25KTS. 30 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014/ .DISCUSSION... A FEW SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF OUR NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES AND THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN HIGH-RES MODELS OF SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING THERE. RAP SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD QPF SIGNALS... AND ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION... IT APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN PHILOSOPHY FOR THE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SOME LOW POPS NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE FRONT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 91 71 94 / 10 10 10 10 HOBART OK 68 93 70 97 / 10 10 10 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 71 93 72 96 / 20 10 10 10 GAGE OK 68 93 69 97 / 10 10 20 10 PONCA CITY OK 71 91 73 97 / 10 10 10 10 DURANT OK 70 93 71 95 / 10 10 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PORTLAND OR
556 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...PRODUCING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM BEING TOO HOT BUT PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. SOME MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WILL BRUSH MAINLY THE NORTH COAST AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDS INLAND WILL BE ON THE PATCHY SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A LITTLE MORE EXPECTED ON MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY INLAND...THEN COOLING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. && .UPDATE...ISSUED A QUICK FORECAST UPDATE BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. A DECAYING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON...BUT APPEARS TO BE CARRYING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO CLIP THE NORTH COAST. 12Z/18Z MODEL RUNS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THIS VERY WELL. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 12Z UW WRFGFS SHOWED NO PRECIP WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE WA COAST AT THE PRESENT HOUR. HOWEVER RAIN HAS SPREAD ONSHORE INTO QUILLAYUTE AND APPEARS TO BE SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE WA COAST. OF ALL GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THE LATEST 21Z HRRR IS HANDLING THE PROGRESSION OF RAINFALL THE BEST. THIS WOULD SPREAD LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ALL INLAND AREAS AND THE NORTH/CENTRAL OREGON COAST SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF LOW CLOUDS FOR ANY 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S COAST AND 60S INLAND BY 10 PM. WEAGLE /PREV DISC ISSUED 200 PM FRI JUL 4 2014 BELOW/ .SHORT TERM...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON WITH JUST SOME HIGHER CLOUDS SPREADING IN OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS OFF THE COAST. TEMPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WERE RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE THOSE OF YESTERDAY...SUPPORTING THAT IDEA THAT WE WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 INLAND TODAY. WE ARE IN A PLEASANT EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION OUT AROUND 140W TO 150W AND LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. MARINE CLOUDS ARE A BIT BROKEN UP OFFSHORE AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH INLAND AND SOUTHWARD IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS. MODEL TEMP GUIDANCE SHOWS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ESPECIALLY INLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A DECENT SYSTEM THAT WAS MOVING INSIDE 130W THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MAIN CLOUD BAND WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRUSH OUR NORTH COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND IT GENERALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH OF A PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INLAND THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH MOST OF THIS REMAINING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND JUST BRUSHING THE NORTH COAST. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INLAND ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTH FORECAST ZONES AT TIMES...AND EARLIER ADJUSTED THE FORECAST AND CLOUDS FOR ALL OF THESE IDEAS. THE MODELS DO INDICATE A BIT MORE OF AN ONSHORE PUSH OF SOME LOW CLOUDS INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF OUR SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFFSHORE...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE UPPER 580S SUGGEST THESE MARINE CLOUDS WILL BE SHALLOW...MAINLY COME INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER...AND BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS MONDAY TO AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE MID OR UPPER 80S. TOLLESON .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEEK BEGINS WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE UPPER 580S OR EVEN PERHAPS NEAR 590 DM. THERE IS NOT MUCH AMPLITUDE TO THE FLOW ALOFT...SO WE STILL HAVE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH KEEPS SOME LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT. THERE PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MANY IF ANY LOW CLOUDS INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS NEAR THE COAST. BEGINNING ABOUT WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWERING AS AN UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... INCREASING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLING THE GENERAL AIR MASS. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUDS AND LOWERED TEMPS...BUT THERE IS SOME HINT THAT AT LEAST THE NORTH COAST COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES LATER NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS A OFFSHORE PACIFIC FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VF..ALTHOUGH THERE WILL SOME LOWERING CLOUDS IN VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE NORTH COAST SAT MORNING. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. && .MARINE...QUITE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NE PAC WITH THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN CALIF. N TO NW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS RUNNING 4 TO 5 FT. NEXT ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS APPEARS TO BE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THERMAL PUSHES NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. TW && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
231 PM PDT THU JUL 3 2014 .DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED, MARINE STRATUS HELD STRONG WELL INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. AS OF 2 PM, TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S AT ROSEBURG. CAN SEE THE STRATUS ERODING AND BECOMING MORE OF A STRATOCUMULUS DECK TO THE NORTH IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, SO EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON SUCH THAT SKIES TURN OUT PARTLY SUNNY AT LEAST FOR AWHILE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS CAPPED IN MOST AREAS AND EXPECT THIS IS HOW THEY`LL STAY. HRRR AND THE NAM12 ARE INDICATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING, PERHAPS IN NORTHERN WASHOE, NORTHWEST HUMBOLDT OR SOUTHERN HARNEY COUNTY, BUT SHOULD STAY OUT OF OUR PUBLIC ZONES. WE`LL HAVE TO DEAL WITH ANOTHER MARINE PUSH TONIGHT, BUT THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOWER AND LIKELY WON`T EXTEND AS FAR INLAND AS LAST NIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE EAST OF THE CASCADES. IT`LL ALSO MIX DOWN SIGNFICANTLY DRY AIR. WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SEE RFWMFR AND THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE SPECIFICS. DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. EAST SIDE AREAS WILL GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S. A STRONG RIDGE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT BASIN AND THIS WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL 850 TEMPS REACH APPROXIMATELY 23-25C MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TO MANY AREAS. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WEST OF THE CASCADES INTO MIDWEEK, BUT IT WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE CASCADES AND EASTWARD BEGINNING TUESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH, WHILE SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY INCREASES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AT THIS POINT, IT`S STILL EARLY TO SAY WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE WHERE AND WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. BUT, AS IT STANDS, WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SPILDE && .AVIATION...BASED ON THE 03/18Z TAFS... MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN NOT CLEARING OUT UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN TO THE COAST LATER TONIGHT...BUT INLAND SPREAD SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS THIS MORNING. -BPN && .MARINE...UPDATED THURSDAY 3 JULY 300 PM PDT... NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY AS A LOW APPROACHES THE REGION AND WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES INLAND. STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RES && .FIRE WEATHER...MODELS SHOW 700MB WINDS INCREASING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEY SHOW THE WINDS WEAKENING SOME LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT STILL REMAINING ELEVATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS NEAR 600 MB ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND SOME OF THOSE STRONGER WINDS COULD MIX DOWN NEAR THE SURFACE. AT THE SAME TIME, VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF INDEPENDENCE DAY FROM THE SHASTA VALLEY AND UPPER KLAMATH BASIN EASTWARD. NEW STARTS FROM RECENT LIGHTNING AND FIREWORKS WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE WE`LL REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR PARTS OF FIRE ZONES 624, 625, 284 AND 285. AT THIS TIME WERE NOT EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS TO LAST LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND SHASTA VALLEY. A HEAT WAVE WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT NORTHERN CAL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. -PETRUCELLI && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ624-625. CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ284-285. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356. $$ MAS/MAP/RES/BPN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
902 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2014 .DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS PERSIST NEAR YAMSAY MOUNTAIN OR ABOUT 15 MILES SW OF SILVER LAKE OREGON. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER STORM IN THE SOUTH END OF THE SHASTA VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA NEAR WEED AND MT SHASTA BUT THIS ONE IS WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. SHORT TERM HRRR MODEL HAS DONE AN EXCELLENT JOB AT PINPOINTING THE LOCATION AND FORECAST ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARNER VALLEY OF EASTERN LAKE COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES. THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WITH OUR FORECAST AREA FINALLY BECOMING THUNDERSTORM FREE ON THURSDAY AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. /FB && .AVIATION...BASED ON THE 03/00Z TAFS... THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINE FROM THE MARBLE MTNS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEAST WARD INTO KLAMATH AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES AROUND 2200 PDT THEN DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR AND WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THIS EVENING...MARINE STRATUS WILL FORM AGAIN ALONG THE COAST RESULTING IN MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE VFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION AFTER 6Z. /FB && .MARINE...UPDATED WEDNESDAY 2 JULY 300 PM PDT... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. THESE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES THE THERMAL TROUGH INLAND. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONGER THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. /RS && .FIRE WEATHERE...WE PICKED UP AROUND 600 STRIKES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM THE SCOTT VALLEY OF NORTHERN CALIIFORNIA NE INTO THE TULELAKE BASIN..BEFORE REFORMING FROM THE YAMSAY MTN INTO SILVER LAKE AND THE CHRISTMAS VALLEY. NOT AS CERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE RAIN WAS BUT SOME RAWS SITES DID PICK UP MORE THAN THE CWR. SHORT TERM MODEL REDEVELOP MORE CONVECTION AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ZONE 625 FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITIES SHIFTS EAST INTO BURNS BLM LAND. SO FAR THIS AREA DID NOT SEE ANY LIGHTNING THIS EVENING SO WE WILL HAVE TO TAKE THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH. AIR MASS BECOMES MORE STABLE THURSDAY WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. /FB .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2014/ DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES NEAR CHEMULT THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOUT 25-50 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WITH CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES THEN GET MORE OF A PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE WAS A BIT OF A CAP IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS ERODING AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO ALSO DEVELOP FROM NEAR THE SHASTA/TRINITY/SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GOOSENEST AREA. THESE WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST MODOC AND SOUTHERN KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SOME HAIL. RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT AND CAN BE VIEWED AT RFWMFR. LATER TONIGHT, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST BEYOND 11 PM PDT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE COUNTY. MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TONIGHT, BUT A MARINE PUSH IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING, THEN MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST, SO HAVE ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST. CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE SHOULD DISSIPATE MID-LATE MORNING THURSDAY. SHOULD BE DRY ALL AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORCING AND AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TOUCH LOWER, BUT OVERALL WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S READINGS. MAINLY DRY, VERY WARM WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING BREEZES, THOUGH BREEZES MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GUSTY OVER THE EAST SIDE AND IN MODOC COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE ROGUE VALLEY AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 NEAR KLAMATH FALLS. MODEL 850 TEMPS GET BACK INTO THE MID 20S CELSIUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND EVEN LOWER 100S AGAIN FOR MEDFORD. INSTABILITY BEGINS TO SHOW UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA, BUT HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO LACK OF TRIGGER. SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY PICKS UP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT MIDWEEK. SPILDE AVIATION...BASED ON THE 02/18Z TAFS... THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS WELL AS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MAINLY IN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES EAST OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR AND WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL NORTH OF MOUNT SHASTA, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR AT TIMES. THIS EVENING...MARINE STRATUS WILL FORM AGAIN ALONG THE COAST RESULTING IN MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE VFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION AFTER 6Z. -PETRUCELLI MARINE...UPDATED WEDNESDAY 2 JULY 300 AM PDT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE WEST TODAY LEADING TO INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES THE THERMAL TROUGH INLAND. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONGER THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624-625. CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280>282-284-285. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376. $$ FJB/MAS/FJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
203 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE INTERACTION OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL SUPPORT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE STATE. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL NOT BE IMPACTED BY ARTHUR AS IT TRACKS FAR ENOUGH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BRING A VERY COMFORTABLE AND DRY 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SEVERE THREAT WANING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY THIS EVENING...AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES. HOWEVER...THIS REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN A PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS FROM THE RAP NEAR 4KM SUGGEST ANY REMAINING TSRA COULD BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY. EVENING VISIBLE IMAGERY IMPLIES A MUCH MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...WHERE JUST A FEW FLAT CU NOTED AT 00Z. FOR THIS PORTION OF CENTRAL PA...A DRY NIGHT APPEARS IN STORE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE WARREN CO. STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY LIES ALONG THE LK ERIE SHORE AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE ABOUT TO LIFT NE INTO THE GRT LKS FROM NW OHIO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCT CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF THIS BNDRY OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NR 60F OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE L70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. CLEARING SKIES...A NEARLY CALM WIND AND RECENT RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... FOCUS THURSDAY SHIFTS TO INTERACTION OF APPROACHING SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AND ARTHUR...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A MOD-HVY RAIN/PRE TYPE EVENT. CONCEPTUAL MODEL PLACES HIGHEST RISK OF PRE/S ALONG LOW LVL THETA RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO FURTHER WEST...CLOSER TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOCATION OF LOW LVL THETE RIDGE OVR SE PA FAVORS THE EXTREME PORTION OF THE CWA /LANCASTER CO/ FOR POTENTIAL PRE EVENT...WHILE ANOTHER RISK AREA COULD BE FURTHER INTO CENTRAL PA...ALONG SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. NWP MODELS ARE OFTEN POOR WITH THE PLACEMENT/INTENSITY OF PRE/S...BUT FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HWO ACROSS OUR SE ZONES THURS/THU NIGHT. MID LVL SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU THE REGION THURSDAY SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY AFTN. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL GIVEN STRONG LG SCALE FORCING AND AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SPC SLIGHT RISK OF SVR EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE COMBINATION OF MOD-HIGH CAPE AND SIGNIFICANT 0-6KM SHEAR SUPPORTS AN ORGANIZED SVR WX THREAT. MAY BE TOO FAR NW FOR A PRE TYPE EVENT BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...BUT LEFT SOME SHOWERS IN ACROSS THE EAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE AMOUNT OF CLDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT...GETTING CONCERN ABOUT HOW MUCH COOL AIR IS ADVECTED SE ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY. WENT WITH LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH ON MONDAY...THEN ALL AREAS FOR TUE INTO WED...AS EC AND OTHER MODELS HINT AT A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... OVERNIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FADE AS ANY STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD. LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE VERY NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF WARRN COUNTY. MODEL GUIDANCE FAVOR IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/ST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURS...HAVE MAINTAINED MORE OPTIMISTICALLY /MAINLY MVFR VISBYS/ FOR NOW GIVEN PERSISTENCE AND LOW CONFIDENCE. LATER ISSUANCE MAY NEED TO ADJUST IF FOG/ST BECOME MORE PREVALENT. HUMID AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THURS. POTENTIAL REDUCTIONS IN FOG/HAZE EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS PSBL DURING THE AFTN. EXPECT TSRA TO BE POSSIBLE 15Z TO 02Z FRIDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDS THU NIGHT WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. OUTLOOK... FRI-EARLY SUN...VFR. LATE SUN-MON...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
631 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 .AVIATION... CURRENT CONVECTION LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE KCDS TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR BELOW THIS EVENING AND INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY MID-LATE SATURDAY MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014/ SHORT TERM... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS TO PERSIST ANOTHER DAY ACROSS THE FA BUT MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WHICH IS ENOUGH TO PUMP OUT 1500-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MINIMAL TO NO CAPPING. A NORTH- SOUTH AXIS OF WEAKLY HIGHER THETA-E/MIXING RATIO VALUES WAS OBSERVED IN RAP FORECAST FIELDS BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME CONVECTION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT AND THERE IS STILL LITTLE TO NO FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. BASES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS IN THE LOWER 90S. RISING HEIGHTS...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AND LESS MOISTURE WILL ACT TO QUELL ANY LOW LEVEL EFFECTS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. A REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR SATURDAY MORNING BUT SOME STRATUS MAY TRY TO EDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY GIVING LESS CHANCES OF MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION REACHING THE FA. HOWEVER A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER TOMORROW EVENING. LONG TERM... OTHER THAN THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF SOME STORMS TOMORROW EVENING... LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. BEST POPS APPEAR TO STAY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SO KEPT BARELY SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. PAST THAT...RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED WEST TO NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WHICH KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHTS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT THROUGH THE FORECAST WHICH MEANS TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DECENT MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 700 HPA WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH. JORDAN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 63 89 64 92 67 / 10 10 20 0 10 TULIA 64 89 65 93 68 / 10 10 10 0 10 PLAINVIEW 66 89 66 92 68 / 10 0 10 0 0 LEVELLAND 67 91 67 92 69 / 10 0 10 0 0 LUBBOCK 68 91 67 93 69 / 10 0 10 0 0 DENVER CITY 66 92 67 92 69 / 0 0 10 0 0 BROWNFIELD 67 92 67 92 70 / 10 0 10 0 0 CHILDRESS 69 93 71 96 73 / 20 10 10 0 10 SPUR 69 92 68 95 70 / 20 0 10 0 0 ASPERMONT 71 93 71 97 73 / 20 0 10 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
152 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014 .AVIATION... BOUNDARY FROM AROUND CLL TO UTS TO BPT LOOKS TO HAVE GONE QUASI- STATIONARY WHILE STORMS THAT FORM NEAR THE BOUNDARY SAG VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT SMALL CLUSTER NE OF K6R3 ARE THE MAIN PLAYERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT CANT RULE OUT MORE DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE REGION AS OUTFLOW BECOMES MORE DOMINANT WITH THIS PULSE ENVIRONMENT. SEA BREEZE IS FINALLY STARTING THE MARCH INLAND AND TO THE WEST SO ANY COLLISION WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS TO THE NORTH COULD EASILY FOCUS STORMS INTO THE HOUSTON METRO TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISBY THE PRIMARY THREATS. SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE REDEVELOPS STORMS TONIGHT/EARLY FRI IN THE NORTH AND PUSHES IT SOUTH BUT THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE DIFFICULTY/INABILITY WITH WHICH THESE SAME HAVE CAPTURED THE MESO BOUNDARIES. AM LEANING TOWARD A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN COMPONENT HENCE THE STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING BETWEEN 7-9 PM. SOME PATCHY FOG OR MIFG AGAIN TOWARD MORNING AT THE RURAL SITES. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS STARTING A LITTLE EARLIER TOMORROW AND PROBABLY LINED UP FROM CLL-HOU-GLS AS BOUNDARY GETS A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR (UNUSUALLY SO LOOKING BACK 30 YEARS) IN FROM MS/LA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014/ DISCUSSION... MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST THIS MORNING...NUDGING DOWN THE CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND ADJUSTING SKY CONDITION TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. AMDAR AND MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY JUST AS WE DID YESTERDAY...WITH LIFTED INDICES SHOWING UP AROUND -5 AND CAPES 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED (RUNNING AROUND 90F). ONLY QUESTION IS THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW VERY LITTLE WIND OR WIND SHEAR SO WE SHOULD HAVE SLOW MOVING ORDINARY CELLS OR PULSE TYPE STORMS AND NOT SO MUCH ORGANIZED CONVECTION LIKE CLUSTERS OR LINES. THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES. THINK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND THAT WITH SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK THUNDERSTORMS OFF BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EACH CELL WILL CREATE OUTFLOWS WHICH WILL KILL THE ORIGINAL STORM BUT KICK OFF OTHERS. MOS GUIDANCE IS QUITE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 6 HOUR POPS IN MET GUIDANCE FOR IAH ONLY 8 PERCENT AND MAV ONLY 11. THINK THIS MOS GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO LOW...AND AM FOLLOWING MORE THE SCENARIO SHOWN IN THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS LIKE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF WITH PRETTY MUCH FOLLOW THE SCENARIO OUTLINED ABOVE WITH MORE SCATTERED TYPE CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARIES. COVERAGE SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 20 TO 30 PCT SW COUNTIES TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT NORTHEAST...CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY. 46 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014/ DISCUSSION... HEIGHTENED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 90 F ARE MET. GENERALLY WEAKENED RIDGING...WITH AMPLE COLUMN MOISTURE .WILL PRIME THE SCENE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BEGIN FIRING ALONG EITHER A NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OR ALONG THE LOCAL MESOSCALE SEA/BAY BREEZES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR THE DOWNSTREAM (RE)GENERATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE LIFT PROVIDED BY SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW GUST FRONTS OUT OF PRIOR CONVECTION. AS OF 03/09Z...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE PINEY WOODS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA IS WHERE THE HIGH REZ SHORT TERM NWP ARE PROGGING WHERE TODAY`S CONVECTION WILL COMMENCE. EARLY DAY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 80S BY LATE MORNING ...INITIATING BLOSSOMING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OF SLOW MOVEMENT PER WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL STEERING WINDS. ANY NORTHERN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT TRAVELS INTO EASTERN TEXAS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL ONLY PROVIDE THE SPARK NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AND INDEPENDENCE DAY CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER THAN 1.75 INCH PWATS WITHIN A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC INDICES THAT EXCEED CONVECTION-TRIGGERING CRITERIA...DEEP DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AXIS UP THROUGH 500 MB...ARE MORE INDICATIONS THAT MANY COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF EITHER SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING .AND GUSTY WINDS FROM STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS PAST 7 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO THE MAJORITY OF THE PYROTECHNICS SHOWS SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL UNDERGO LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED... WITH THE DIURNAL SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 F ARE ACHIEVED. ANALOG BEHAVIOR TO THE DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURE SINUSOIDAL CURVE...MEAN LOW-MID 90 F MAXIMUMS TO AVERAGE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S. LESS CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND COULD PEAK AMBIENT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREAWIDE MIDDLE 90S THAT...WITH PW`S GREATER THAN 1.3 OR 1.4 INCHES EQUATING TO NEAR 50% RH...WILL BRIEFLY PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOWER 100S BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM. KEEP THE UMBRELLA CLOSE OVER THE FOURTH...OBEY LIGHTNING RULES...AND HAVE WATER NEARBY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STAY SAFE! MARINE... WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY & SEABREEZE WILL PROVIDE TRIGGERS FOR SOME TSRA TODAY & FRI...MAINLY IN THE BAYS AND INLAND. BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLUSTERS MOVING OFF THE COAST. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 92 73 95 73 / 20 50 20 30 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 77 93 74 94 73 / 50 50 20 30 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 80 88 79 90 78 / 20 40 20 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...46 AVIATION/MARINE...45
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1026 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014 .DISCUSSION... MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST THIS MORNING...NUDGING DOWN THE CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND ADJUSTING SKY CONDITION TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. AMDAR AND MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY JUST AS WE DID YESTERDAY...WITH LIFTED INDICES SHOWING UP AROUND -5 AND CAPES 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED (RUNNING AROUND 90F). ONLY QUESTION IS THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW VERY LITTLE WIND OR WIND SHEAR SO WE SHOULD HAVE SLOW MOVING ORDINARY CELLS OR PULSE TYPE STORMS AND NOT SO MUCH ORGANIZED CONVECTION LIKE CLUSTERS OR LINES. THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES. THINK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND THAT WITH SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK THUNDERSTORMS OFF BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EACH CELL WILL CREATE OUTFLOWS WHICH WILL KILL THE ORIGINAL STORM BUT KICK OFF OTHERS. MOS GUIDANCE IS QUITE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 6 HOUR POPS IN MET GUIDANCE FOR IAH ONLY 8 PERCENT AND MAV ONLY 11. THINK THIS MOS GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO LOW...AND AM FOLLOWING MORE THE SCENARIO SHOWN IN THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS LIKE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF WITH PRETTY MUCH FOLLOW THE SCENARIO OUTLINED ABOVE WITH MORE SCATTERED TYPE CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARIES. COVERAGE SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 20 TO 30 PCT SW COUNTIES TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT NORTHEAST...CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY. 46 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014/ DISCUSSION... HEIGHTENED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 90 F ARE MET. GENERALLY WEAKENED RIDGING...WITH AMPLE COLUMN MOISTURE ..WILL PRIME THE SCENE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BEGIN FIRING ALONG EITHER A NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OR ALONG THE LOCAL MESOSCALE SEA/BAY BREEZES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR THE DOWNSTREAM (RE)GENERATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE LIFT PROVIDED BY SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW GUST FRONTS OUT OF PRIOR CONVECTION. AS OF 03/09Z...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE PINEY WOODS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA IS WHERE THE HIGH REZ SHORT TERM NWP ARE PROGGING WHERE TODAY`S CONVECTION WILL COMMENCE. EARLY DAY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 80S BY LATE MORNING ...INITIATING BLOSSOMING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OF SLOW MOVEMENT PER WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL STEERING WINDS. ANY NORTHERN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT TRAVELS INTO EASTERN TEXAS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL ONLY PROVIDE THE SPARK NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AND INDEPENDENCE DAY CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER THAN 1.75 INCH PWATS WITHIN A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC INDICES THAT EXCEED CONVECTION-TRIGGERING CRITERIA...DEEP DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AXIS UP THROUGH 500 MB...ARE MORE INDICATIONS THAT MANY COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF EITHER SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING ..AND GUSTY WINDS FROM STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS PAST 7 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO THE MAJORITY OF THE PYROTECHNICS SHOWS SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL UNDERGO LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED... WITH THE DIURNAL SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 F ARE ACHIEVED. ANALOG BEHAVIOR TO THE DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURE SINUSOIDAL CURVE...MEAN LOW-MID 90 F MAXIMUMS TO AVERAGE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S. LESS CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND COULD PEAK AMBIENT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREAWIDE MIDDLE 90S THAT...WITH PW`S GREATER THAN 1.3 OR 1.4 INCHES EQUATING TO NEAR 50% RH...WILL BRIEFLY PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOWER 100S BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM. KEEP THE UMBRELLA CLOSE OVER THE FOURTH...OBEY LIGHTNING RULES...AND HAVE WATER NEARBY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STAY SAFE! MARINE... WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY & SEABREEZE WILL PROVIDE TRIGGERS FOR SOME TSRA TODAY & FRI...MAINLY IN THE BAYS AND INLAND. BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLUSTERS MOVING OFF THE COAST. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 47 AVIATION... ISOLATED PATCHES OF MVFR FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. MODEL THAT INITIALIZED CURRENT N TX TSTMS WELL (ARW) SUGGESTS POSSIBLE OUTFLOW AND SCT CONVECTION MOVING INTO NRN PARTS OF SE TX AFTER SUNRISE AND TO NEAR THE COAST TOWARD NOON. THEN FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INLAND DURING THE AFTN. REST OF THE MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE MORNING BUT DO INDICATE RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A GOOD MAJORITY OF SE TX (N OF COAST/SEABREEZE) BETWEEN 19-21Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WILL PROBABLY THROW IN SOME TEMPOS DURING THE AFTN HOURS. PULSE SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE 7-10PM WITH LOSS OF HEATING. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 75 92 73 95 / 40 20 50 20 30 HOUSTON (IAH) 95 77 93 74 94 / 40 50 50 20 30 GALVESTON (GLS) 90 80 88 79 90 / 30 20 40 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1200 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014 .DISCUSSION... SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION... THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THIS TAF PACKAGE WAS TO BACK UP THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO 16Z IN THE NORTHERN ZONES...17Z IN THE HOUSTON METRO AREA...AND AFTER 18Z NEAR THE COAST. THE 00Z GFE...HRRR...AND WRF-ARW MODEL RUNS ALL SUGGEST THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL ORIGINATE FROM A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NEAR THE DALLAS/FT WORTH METROPLEX AND DROP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. I STUCK WITH VCSH/VCTS IN THIS TAF PACKAGE...HOWEVER SUBSEQUENT TAF UPDATES SHOULD BEGIN TO NARROW DOWN THE TIMING AND IMPACTS AS MORE DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE STILL PROBABLE AT THE MORE RURAL TERMINALS DURING PRE-DAWN HOURS. CIRRUS BLOWING OFF OF A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER IS COVERING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AND MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE PREVAILING VFR BY MID-MORNING. 44 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/ DISCUSSION... SEE CLIMATE SECTION. CLIMATE... COLLEGE STATION HIT 95 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR THAT THE 95 DEGREE THRESHOLD HAS BEEN REACHED. THE LAST TIME IT WAS 95 DEGREES AT KCLL WAS ON SEPT 25 2013. THE 278 DAY PERIOD BELOW 95 DEGREES IS THE 21ST LONGEST STRETCH IN CITY HISTORY. THE LONGEST STRETCH OF DAYS BELOW 95 DEGREES OCCURRED BETWEEN JULY 30 1975 AND JULY 31 1976...OR 368 DAYS. THE CITY OF HOUSTON REACHED 94 DEGREES TODAY AND HAS NOT YET REACHED 95 DEGREES SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE CITY OF HOUSTON IS CURRENTLY AT 279 DAYS BELOW 95 DEGREES WHICH IS THE 54TH LONGEST STREAK IN CITY HISTORY. THE LONGEST STRETCH OF DAYS BELOW 95 DEGREES WAS 725 DAYS BETWEEN AUG 12 1897 AND AUG 7 1899 (THAT RECORD IS GOING TO LAST A WHILE). 43 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/ DISCUSSION... ANOTHER BUSY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS STORMS WOULD PULSE TO NEAR SEVERE LIMITS AND THEN DROP BACK DOWN. SOME LOCATIONS PICKED UP AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF TRINITY...SAN JACINTO AND WALKER COUNTIES WITH SOME 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS OVER WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY...RIGHT AT RUSH HOUR. PEA SIZE HAIL ACCOMPANIED THE STRONGER STORMS IN HARRIS COUNTY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM TEXARKANA TO BROWNWOOD TO MIDLAND THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS EAST TEXAS. AT 850 MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SE TX WITH DEEPER 850 MSTR CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE HIGH. A WEAK 850 TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST. AT 700 MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SE TX...SOMEWHAT STACKED ATOP THE 850 HIGH. MSTR WAS SPARSE AT THIS LEVEL. AT 250 MB...A WEAK HIGH WAS OVER NE TX WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL LA ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WAS OVER WEST TEXAS. THE RAP 13 IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA WITH RAIN THEN DEVELOPING IN THE HOUSTON AREA BY 16Z. THE HI-RES ARW WHICH INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL IS HOLDING MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL 18Z. THE 18Z TEXAS TECH IS COMING IN AND IT ALSO FAVORS PRECIP DURING THE AFTN. ALL OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY SO HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 50 PERCENT AND FEEL THIS STILL MIGHT BE TOO LOW. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT... TWEAKED POPS...SKY GRIDS AND HOURLY TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT OBS. NEW ZONES OUT BY 930 PM. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 94 75 92 73 / 10 40 20 30 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 76 95 77 93 74 / 10 50 20 40 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 80 90 80 88 79 / 10 30 20 40 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...43 AVIATION/MARINE...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
246 AM PDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS...ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING FURTHER EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL SPREAD LOW MARINE CLOUDS INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH THIS MORNING...TAKING UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO CLEAR. AN UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...STRATUS IS STARTING TO FILL IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ABUNDANT ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM WED CONTINUES ITS TREK FURTHER EAST OF THE CASCADES...AND THE NEXT DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BEGINS ITS APPROACH. STILL ANTICIPATING A LATER BURN OFF FOR THE MARINE STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE VALLEY...WITH INLAND STRATUS RETREATING TO THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID-AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY REMAIN DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE. THE MORNING CLOUDS...ONSHORE WINDS AND THE NEAR BY UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING INTO THE 80S...BUT STILL THINK THE INLAND VALLEYS WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. MODELS STILL ON TRACK SHOWING THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA OFF THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW AND PLEASANT WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING THE GENERAL PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS/AFTERNOON SUN TO PREVAIL. BELIEVE THE COVERAGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE A BIT LESS ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LITTLE MOISTURE BRUSHING THE NORTH COAST AREAS MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON ANY LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. ITS LOOKING MORE LIKE IT WILL BE MORE DRIZZLE THAN ACTUAL MEASURABLE PRECIP UNDER THE MARINE STRATUS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW OREGON COASTS. .LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FINAL IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NE PAC ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MAY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUN BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON THE TIMING AND JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE WILL SEE...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AT BEST. THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BY EARLY MON...ALLOWING SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDING TO BUILD OVER THE PAC NW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING SOME WARMING ALONG WITH A RETURN TO A TYPICAL PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. CULLEN && .AVIATION...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. AN MVFR STRATUS DECK PUSHED INTO THE COAST THIS PAST EVENING...AND IS NOW TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...RADIATIONAL STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT. EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TWO STRATUS DECKS TO EXPAND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS...LIKELY FILLING MOST THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THE CIG HEIGHT LOOKS LIKELY TO BE RIGHT AROUND 3000 FT. ESTIMATED BURN OFF FOR THE INTERIOR CLOUDS IS BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z...AND 23Z OR LATER ALONG THE COAST. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE COAST LATE IN THE EVENING. KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT A HIGH MVFR DECK TO FORM BETWEEN 10Z AND 11Z...WITH AN ESTIMATED BURN OFF BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. THEN EXPECT VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT. PYLE && .MARINE...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MARINE CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LIGHT NW FLOW THIS MORNING MAY PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRES OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENING INLAND. WITH ONLY WEAK ACTIVITY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...W-NW SWELL SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PYLE && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1025 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated thunderstorms will range across the Inland Northwest tonight as a weak weather disturbance passes through. Thursday will be slightly cooler and locally breezy but essentially dry and sunny. A stretch of dry and warm summer weather will envelope the region from Friday through early next week with occasional high clouds and the possibility of a few mountain showers and thunderstorms during the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Evening update to remove showers and storms west of a line from Republic to Coulee City to Quincy. Water Vapor indicates a midlevel dry slot has punched across the Cascades with visible satellite indicating mostly clear skies at this hour. Still quite a bit of convective instability ahead of this line with showers and storms continue to fire across northern Oregon...some which will track into southern Grant/Adams counties within the next few hours. Some light echoes remain along an upper-level front from NE WA to the Palouse but this is generally only dropping some sprinkles so also removed thunder in these areas until after 11PM. Latest HRRR and other Hi-Res models indicate the main show overnight will be across SE WA and the lower ID Panhandle associated with the heavier T-storm activity between Ukiah and Bend in central Oregon. This will take some time to make its track northward and shouldn`t be as strong as the current radar indicates but should bring the "ripple" or convectively driven vort max in the midlevels which will track into our already established moist and unstable environment supporting the idea of continued unsettled weather through the overnight periods. Brief heavy rain and lightning strikes will be the main concern but winds between 30-40 mph will also be possible without a strong nocturnal inversion developing. /sb && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: A cold front will slowly translate east through the region. An unstable and moist air mass ahead of the front will keep a threat for elevated showers and T-storms through early morning. The front has passed through KEAT/KMWH so the main threat for -tsra will be across Ern WA and Nrn ID mainly frm KPUW/KLWS to KCOE. A few showers will brush KGEG/KSFF but the threat for -tsra is too low to include in TAFS. The pcpn threat wanes arnd 11z then the main aviation concern for Thu will be breezy winds as skies clear. Winds subside arnd 03z. /sb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 63 85 56 84 60 84 / 20 10 10 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 62 84 53 83 55 82 / 30 20 10 0 0 10 Pullman 58 83 50 84 55 82 / 40 20 10 0 0 10 Lewiston 68 93 59 93 64 94 / 40 20 10 0 0 10 Colville 59 86 53 83 55 83 / 20 20 10 0 10 10 Sandpoint 57 82 49 81 50 80 / 30 30 10 0 10 10 Kellogg 60 82 53 83 54 80 / 40 30 10 10 10 10 Moses Lake 64 92 57 90 62 92 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 66 87 61 89 64 90 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 Omak 60 91 55 89 59 91 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...&& $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
154 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 QUIET SO FAR AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SLUG OF MOISTURE IMPINGING ON WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WITH SOME CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE WEST. SHOULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRE INITIALLY AROUND THE MTNS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH A FEW POSSIBLY STRAYING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THOUGH HIGHER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A WEAK IMPULSE AIDING IT A BIT. AGAIN THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM FRIDAY WITH MAXS WELL INTO THE 90S OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. EVEN A BIT WARMER SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL TEMPS RISE IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA WITH MAXS TOPPING OUT AROUND 100 OVER PARTS OF THE NEB PANHANDLE. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS SATURDAY SHOULD ALSO CAP LOWER LEVELS THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AS ADVERTISED THE SEVERAL PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS FOR SUNDAY. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART FOR MOST LOCATIONS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SNOWY RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GOING TO BE ANOTHER HOT DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 100 AT SCOTTSBLUFF AND NEAR 90 AT RAWLINS. STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SOLUTIONS FOR POPS NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. GFS IS SIMILAR...BUT DRY. DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH OUR TREND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MATCHES UP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEIGHBORS TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST. GFS DOES PRODUCE FAIRLY HIGH QPF FOR THE PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT...SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND WE STAY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON A DAILY BASIS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A CELL PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE KCYS AIRPORT AFTER 21/22Z. CONTINUED THE VCTS WORDING AT KLAR AND KCYS. HRRR ALSO SHOWING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD IMPACT KCDR IF IT IS ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH. WENT WITH VCTS WORDING IN THE KCDR TAF AFTER 23Z...RUNNING THROUGH 04Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 CONCERNS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY NON- CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. MIN HUMIDITIES WILL FALL CLOSE TO 10 PERCENT OVER WESTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOONS. WIDELY SCTD TSTRMS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY BUT DRY LIGHTNING NOT EXPECTED. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RE LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB AVIATION...CLAYCOMB FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1100 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH IT WILL COME INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR TODAY. SFC PRESSURE FALLS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF SOME MIDLEVEL ENERGY RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE AXIS. WILL SEE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH...WHICH IN TURN WILL ADVECT IN HIGHER LLVL MOISTURE TO THIS AREA. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP STILL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4-7F IN THIS AREA SUGGEST CHANCES OF THIS HAPPENING ARE RELATIVELY LOW. LOOKING AT DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY. RESULTANT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ONTO THE PLAINS...IN SPITE OF WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. WITH 500 - 2000 J/KG OF CAPE IN PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST RESPECTIVELY...COULD SEE A FEW MORE VIGOROUS STORMS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST TO THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK THO WITH BULK SHEAR LOOKING TO BE 30 KTS OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ACTIVITY TO ACHIEVE SEVERE LEVELS. MODELS SHOW A WEAK LLVL JET DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING SO WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS CONTINUE THRU MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOIST SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDES THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB ALOFT AS WELL AS AT THE SURFACE...WITH HIGHS LOOKING REACH THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD...WHILE A WEAK COOL FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A SOUTHERN RUN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF SFC AND UPPER FORCING...ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL SPARK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...WITH THE ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN LOOKING TO BE VIGOROUS BUT DISORGANIZED DUE TO LACK OF SHEAR. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER IN THE PANHANDLE THRU THE EVENING...OTHERWISE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AS THE UPPER WAVES SHIFTS TO THE EAST. A FETCH OF MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY...ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARMER TEMPS. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE COULD BREACH THE CENTURY MARK...WITH PERHAPS ONLY A WEAK STORM OR TWO TO BRING RELIEF TO THE HEAT IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 A RATHER WARM START TO THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING DOMINATING THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ON SUN. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW H7 TEMPS BETWEEN 15-17C CONTRIBUTING TO 1000-500 MILLIBAR THICKNESS VALUES IN EXCESS OF 582 DM. MEDIUM RANGE MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 90S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TO NEAR 100F IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. LIMITING FACTORS FOR ANYTHING REALLY HOT WILL BE NORTHEAST LLVL FLOW BEHIND A WEAK BACK-DOOR COOL FRONT AND AFTN CUMULUS. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE CONTINUED TO STAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS. NOT A PARTICULARLY MOIST PATTERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD. THIS BEGINS TO CHANGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEST-TO-NORTHWEST MIDLVL FLOW ON EDGE OF A FLATTENING RIDGE. THE MODELS SHOW A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE FLOW WITH ATTENDANT SHOTS OF MOISTURE VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY FROM MON ONWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH LLVL UPSLOPE SETTING UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WOULD PROBABLY BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST WHERE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER...OTHERWISE H5 FLOW LESS THAN 20 KTS WILL PROBABLY LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EPISODES. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG STORMS NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE AND CAPES IN BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG ADVERTISED BY THE GFS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A CELL PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE KCYS AIRPORT AFTER 21/22Z. CONTINUED THE VCTS WORDING AT KLAR AND KCYS. HRRR ALSO SHOWING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD IMPACT KCDR IF IT IS ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH. WENT WITH VCTS WORDING IN THE KCDR TAF AFTER 23Z...RUNNING THROUGH 04Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014 NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH FUELS CONTINUING TO BE NON-CRITICAL. AFTERNOON MIN RHS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED IN THIS AREA ON FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND MORESO FOR FRIDAY OVER MUCH THE DISTRICT. WITH DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST...NOT MUCH PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER THE LIKELIHOOD FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC DOWNDRAFT WINDS IS HIGH. FURTHER EAST...HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS HERE. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE HOT ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR T-STORM ACTIVITY. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RJM LONG TERM...HAMMER AVIATION...CLAYCOMB FIRE WEATHER...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
900 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2014 .UPDATE... REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DESERT FOR THIS EVENING. && .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AN INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. && .DISCUSSION... THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY NEAR THE KERN COUNTY LINE HAD DISSIPATED BY 02Z SATURDAY /1900 PDT THIS EVENING/. ONE CELL BARELY MADE IT OVER THE COUNTY LINE NEAR THE JUNCTION OF KERN...LOS ANGELES AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...WITH ONE CLOUD-TO- GROUND STRIKE IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY AND TWO IN-CLOUD OR CLOUD-TO-CLOUD STROKES OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED...AND RANGED FROM 104 AT THE MADERA AND VISALIA MUNICIPAL AIRPORTS TO 110 DEGREES AT COALINGA. BOTH BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO HAD HIGHS OF 107 DEGREES.THIS WAS THE THIRD TIME THIS YEAR THE HIGH AT MEADOWS FIELD WAS 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER...AND THE FIFTH TIME FOR FRESNO-YOSEMITE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THE FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE GUSTY WINDS NEAR SUNFLOWER VALLEY WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH CONTINUE...AND HOW EXTENSIVE CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT 03Z SATURDAY /2000 PDT THIS EVENING/...THE SALINAS-FRESNO SURFACE- PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS 7.0 MB...AND THE SANTA MARIA-FRESNO GRADIENT WAS 5.9 MB. THE 02Z HRRR FORECASTS A 15-KT WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE DIABLO RANGE NEAR SUNFLOWER VALLEY THAT DIMINISHES AROUND 04Z SATURDAY /2100 PDT THIS EVENING/. THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY...AS THE WINDS AT SUNFLOWER VALLEY WERE STILL GUSTING TO 36 MPH AT 0327Z /2027 PDT/. HOWEVER...THE HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS EVENING/S CONVECTION SO WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL RUN WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS WITH THE MOUNTAIN AND DESERT CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WAS ABUNDANT IN-CLOUD AND CLOUD-TO-CLOUD LIGHTNING WITH THE CELLS THAT DEVELOPED OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TODAY...AND THE CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING GENERATED AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN OVER NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NAM-12 KEEPS 850-MB THETA-E IN EXCESS OF 340 K OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA OVERNIGHT. THESE CONCERNS WILL BE FURTHER EVALUATED BY THE MIDNIGHT CREW AFTER THE FULL 00Z GFS AND ECMWF COME IN. && .AVIATION... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT...TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PROBABLE NEAR ANY TSRA AFTER 21Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .PREV DISC... /ISSUED 301 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2014/ DISCUSSION... SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE WARM AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN DISTRICT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MONSOON MOISTURE ALREADY ARRIVING EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOW A GOOD INCREASE TOWARDS THE KERN COUNTY DESERT. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN MUCH OF THE MOJAVE AREA HAVE INCREASED 20-25 DEGREES OVER THE THE LAST 24 HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST BRINGING THE THREAT OF THUNDER A DAY EARLIER STARTING SATURDAY OVER EASTERN KERN COUNTY AND HIGH SIERRA. THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT RESULTING IN A CONTINUED THREAT OF CONVECTIVE STORM POTENTIAL INTO MID WEEK. SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER COULD PUSH INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY EACH EVENING OVER THE WEEKEND. STORM ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW REMNANT STORM VORTEXES MOVING THROUGH THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH OVER S PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT BRINGING A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF THUNDER OVER THE SIERRA SUNDAY. THE INITIAL MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORM MAY BE DRY LIGHTNING. BUT WITH HIGH PW TURN TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SUNDAY. THE SIERRA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS KEEP THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT USHERING THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE SIERRA FRIDAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL TEMPER TEMPERATURES. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER AND HIGHS A BIT LOWER, YET TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE LOCKED IN AT OR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... NONE. && .CERTAINTY... THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH. THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH. CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR KFAT 07-04 112:1889 79:1955 81:2001 51:1951 KFAT 07-05 112:1991 77:1909 77:1991 52:1948 KFAT 07-06 111:2007 83:1903 78:2007 50:1955 KBFL 07-04 114:1931 82:1955 81:2001 49:1913 KBFL 07-05 114:1931 80:1961 81:1970 53:1948 KBFL 07-06 116:1913 85:1955 81:2011 52:1915 && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...SANGER AVN/FW...BEAN PREV DISCUSSION...DURFEE SYNOPSIS...WP WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
153 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .AVIATION... KEPT VFR VSBYS AT ALL SITES ALTHOUGH SOME REMNANT FU/HZ FROM FIREWORKS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR BRIEFLY AT SOME OF THE EAST COAST SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE PREVAILING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. KAPF SHOULD SEE A GULF BREEZE DEVELOP AS WELL WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO INITIATE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014/ UPDATE... EARLIER SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED...AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND CLOUDS HAVE PREVENTED ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BROWARD/DADE/PALM BEACH COASTS THIS EVENING. THUS...EXPECTING THE SWATH OF RAIN THROUGH INLAND PALM BEACH/BROWARD TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS NE OF NAPLES IS MOVING WEST TOWARDS THE COAST...BUT MAY ALSO WEAKEN BEFORE ARRIVING TO I-75. HOWEVER...ANY OUTFLOW FROM THIS CLUSTER MAY SPAWN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT A LITTLE LATER CONSIDERING THE LACK OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY. REGARDLESS...POPS WERE REDUCED TO SLT CHC IN SOME AREAS ALONG THE COASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014/ DISCUSSION... WIDELY DISPERSED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. IN GENERAL STORM MOTION IS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA EXPECTED TO HAVE THE MOST COVERAGE. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW THIS TREND AS WELL. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATING AN ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THEN EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TOWARD HURRICANE ARTHUR. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT AREA OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND EXTEND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES...I.E. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOISTURE...WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MARINE... IN GENERAL WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 89 77 89 78 / 40 30 40 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 90 80 90 80 / 40 20 40 20 MIAMI 90 78 90 79 / 40 20 40 20 NAPLES 91 74 91 75 / 30 20 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 MO VALLEY ELEVATED MCS CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS MORNING DRIVEN BY MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING. EFFECTIVE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...500-1000 J/KG AND AROUND 40KTS RESPECTIVELY...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION AND STORMS PUSHING SEVERE LIMITS JUST TO OUR WEST. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS THE MCS PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH IA LATER THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS BUT PRIMARILY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HEAVY RAINS MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT WITH RAP PWS NOW UP TO 1.8 FUELED BY STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT. COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WITH THE MEAN WIND AND NOT FOLLOWING UPWIND PROPAGATION /CORFIDI/ VECTOR SUGGESTING IT WOULD BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH AT 2-3KM WITH LESS LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE AND MORE DRIVEN BY HIGHER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. THUS WILL ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MENTION THIS MORNING BUT HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT ANTICIPATED. FORCING MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY HOWEVER SO HAVE LOWERED POPS WEST BUT KEPT CHANCES GOING EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS DOES BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES 4- 5K J/KG...BUT SOME CINH IS APPARENT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z. HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC WITH GFS...NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING VARIED DEGREES OF MIXING. WITH MCS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HAVE PLAYED IT MORE CONSERVATIVE AND BELOW RAP STAYING CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE. AIRMASS WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL THROUGH THE 60S BY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ROUGHLY ZONAL 500 MB FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTH BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE AMPLIFIED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CARVE OUT A MODEST 500 MB TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST OVER TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE FIRST SUCH IMPULSE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME STORMS TODAY AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE...AND THESE MAY LINGER IN OUR EAST AND SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OUT. THE SECOND IMPULSE WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING A COOL FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THERMAL RIDGING ALONG WITH MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE GOOD HEATING AND AN IMPRESSIVE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS...THOSE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES POTENTIALLY EDGING ABOVE 100 DEGREES MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD CAPPING THAT WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN. HAVE THUS MAINTAINED PRETTY LOW POPS...PEAKING SUNDAY EVENING AS CAPPING WEAKENS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THE COOL FRONT WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES LOWER WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SCOOTING THROUGH. THE STRONGEST 500 MB TROUGH OF THE SERIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING STRONG FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT OVERNIGHT AND PROBABLY YIELDING SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE ARE SOME TIMING QUESTIONS BUT IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A MORE WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS IOWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WAVE ALOFT. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF RELIEF WITH HIGHS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWER HUMIDITY. POPS WILL BE VERY LOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THE FAR EXTENDED IS A BIT TRICKER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BY THURSDAY THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. 500 MB TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN CARVED OUT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA...INITIALLY REPLACED BY WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER IOWA WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. THE GFS AND THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ RUN OF THE ECMWF HAD BEEN BUILDING THIS BIG HEAT DOME OVER IOWA INTO NEXT WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE AND IS USING A CANADIAN 500 MB TROUGH...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS DEPICTION...TO CARVE INTO THE RIDGE AND BRING THE INFAMOUS RING OF FIRE DOWN OVER IOWA NEXT WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION...HOT AND DRY UNDER THE BIG BUBBLE...SEEMS MORE FEASIBLE FOR NOW AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS AND FAIRLY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS APPROPRIATE. IF THE SOLUTIONS CONVERGE THAT WAY THEN LONG RANGE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE RAISED ABOVE CURRENT VALUES. && .AVIATION...05/06Z ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM ND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES ON SUN...STALLING TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. AN AREAS OF VFR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE PERIOD WILL BE 3 TO 5 HOURS. THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR. OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN STATUS...FOG...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK IN ITS WAKE. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SMALL LONG TERM...LEE AVIATION...MS JUL 14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
351 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESS/TROUGH... FROM CTRL CANADA TO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS... CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE CWA. LATEST RUC13 85H ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE TRANS AXIS ALIGNED FROM ERN SODAK INTO NWRN PART OF CWA. AN INITIAL BAND OF RAIN/TRW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR RAINY RIVER/BORDERLAND VICINITY. THIS SECOND AREA IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SO SOME 50DBZ CORES HAVE PUNCHED ABOVE 30K WITH STRONG/SVR STORMS POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CWA AS MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMUM SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE INTL BORDER. ELSEWHERE LIMITED ACTIVITY WITH WARM AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 TODAY...INITIAL MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMA AT 85H IS FCST TO SHIFT ACROSS ARROWHEAD EARLY MORNING AS ASSOCIATED MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES EAST. THIS 85H MSTR TRANS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO A TWIN PORTS TO CASS LAKE AXIS BY 18Z. AS THIS IS OCCURRING DEEP LAYER WAA WILL BEGIN TO INHIBIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER SWRN CWA. CONFIDENCE LOWER TO THE EAST AS UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER CONVECTION CAN REDEVELOP FROM EARLIER OUTFLOW BDRIES. WILL TREND DOWN POPS EXCEPT NORTH AND EASTERN CWA WHERE MID LVL CAP WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. VERY WARM HUMID DAY AHEAD AND USED HIGHER VALUES OF GEMREGBC FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY. DESPITE EARLY MORNING ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECT THAT ONCE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL WARM UP THE LAKEFRONT. TONIGHT...GENERAL IDEA IS THAT AN MCS/MCC WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OVER NODAK AND TRACK INTO CWA LATE TONIGHT. HI RES MDLS HAVE BEEN HIT OR MISS WITH RESOLVING ACTIVITY IN THIS PATTERN. USING GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL PUT DEVELOPMENT NEAR NODAK/NW MN BORDER AROUND 06Z...AND TRACKING ACROSS NRN/CTRL CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAYSHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SIGNALS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SYSTEM. WOULD EXPECT INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG/SVR STORMS WITH POSSIBLE WX WATCH REQUIRED FOR SOME PARTS OF CWA. TOMORROW...SFC LOW IN WRN ONTARIO WILL SWING A WINDSHIFT/TROF ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS ERN CWA BY MIDDAY/AFTN. BEHIND WINDSHIFT SHOULD SEE SIG WARMING AS FCST 925 TEMPS REACH 23C TO 25C. THIS GIVES MAX TEMPS IN MID 80S NEAR TWIN PORTS. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS I35 CORRIDOR TOWARDS ITASCA COUNTY. FCST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME ORGANIZATION WITH THREAT OF A FEW STRONG OR SVR STORMS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 THE SFC COLD FRONT EXITS THE FA SUNDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING BEHIND FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR THE EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN DRY OVERNIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A PARADE OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE RAIN FREE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS...ALTHOUGH IT WEAKENS IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE POPS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF FORCING TO INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE PRECLUDES ANYTHING MORE THAN HIGH CHANCE POPS. ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER TROF CROSSES NORTHERN MN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN BEST FORCING ARRIVES. LOWER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE TROF...BUT CAA WORTHY OF THE MENTION. INSTABILITY IS MISSING TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILD OVER THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF POPS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 VFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BRING LOWERING VSBYS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT VCSH IN TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION. HAVE LLWS AT ALL SITES AS LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS 2 KFT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 35-40 KT THROUGH SAT MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 82 65 85 60 / 30 60 60 10 INL 86 66 77 57 / 40 60 60 10 BRD 86 69 84 63 / 20 50 50 10 HYR 81 68 86 61 / 20 50 70 10 ASX 84 65 84 59 / 20 50 60 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...GSF AVIATION...GRANING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
412 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 ON-GOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ABOUT AS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASED TO AROUND 50 KNOTS COINCIDENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THIS RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING IN EASTERN COUNTIES. THE 06Z RUN OF THE RAP AND THE NAM ACTUALLY KEEP CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THAT THE LIFT BEING GENERATED BY THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 15Z SUNDAY... WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS WERE INDICATING. THE NAM PUSHES IT INTO KANSAS BY 00Z BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE CLOSER TO 06Z. REGARDLESS OF EXACT TIMING...THIS FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH VERY UNSTABLE AIR...WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FACTORS AGAINST STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A CAP AS WELL AS A LACK OF BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER WITH LOW LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT/CONVERGENCE... A FEW STORMS COULD REACH THE LFC AND BECOME QUITE STRONG GIVEN THE INSTABILITY. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO MOVE POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH POPS PLACED IN AREAS LIKELY AFFECTED BY THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE/HEAT INDEX FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS COMPLICATED BY THE FRONT AS WELL AS POTENTIAL CONVECTION. ASSUMING ANY CONVECTION THAT WOULD DEVELOP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AND LOOSE DEWPOINT GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT...MOST AREAS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 105 ESPECIALLY SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES IN SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVES BACK EAST... AND A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SEE RETURN FLOW ON SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE PINNING DOWN POPS AND TIMING. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP TO OUR EAST AND THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SD/NE BORDER. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING INTO THE AREA...A WEAK SHORTWAVE...AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. DID MENTION SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...BUT TRIED TO LIMIT THE TEMPO GROUP FOR THE TSRA TO JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT TIMING. MENTIONED LLWS AT ALL THREE SITES AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO 40KTS. MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS IN AREAS OF PRECIP AND ALSO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...NIETFELD LONG TERM...NIETFELD AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1237 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 753 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE MOST RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA TRENDS. IT APPEARS THAT IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION THAT IS OUT IN COLORADO IS GOING TO MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA...IT WILL MORE LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND I HAVE CUT BACK CHANCES OF RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH. LATER ON IN THE LATE EVENING PAST 10 PM...THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY VERY WELL BE FOCUSED TOWARD THE NORTHERN CWA...WHERE I KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN A BIT HIGHER. OVERALL...CHANCES OF RAIN DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT HIGH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS TO LET OFF FIREWORKS WITHOUT MUCH OF A HITCH...THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY BE HOW MUCH WIND WE HAVE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE LOW- LEVEL JET INCREASES. CONSRAW INDICATES SOME GUSTS MAY GET CLOSE TO 25 MPH. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE THE BEST INITIALIZED MODEL FOR GAUGING WHERE RAIN MAY BE TONIGHT...AND IT POINTS MORE TO THE SOUTH WHERE LEFTOVER CONVECTION OUT OF COLORADO WILL FINALLY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO POSSIBLY GIVE A LITTLE RAIN BEFORE FALLING APART. THERE COULD BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO...GIVEN MODERATE MID- LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MODERATE SHEAR. THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE HEADING EAST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER FORECAST...SO INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR ROUGHLY OUR EASTERN TWO TIERS OF NEBRASKA COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME AROUND. SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND HAVE BROUGHT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS RAISING A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT LOCATIONS AND TIMING OF THE STORMS. THE NAM HAS THEM MOVING INTO THE WEST ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS IT MORE DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE KEPT WITH THAT AND HAVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THEN OVERNIGHT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THE NEXT QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHETHER ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW THAT LINGER IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER THAT AND ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE PLAINS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY...BEFORE A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS/DISTURBANCES RESULT IN HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...AND A RETURN TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALONG WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. FOR SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO EITHER THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OR TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...WHICH COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE THE VERY WARM AFTERNOON FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON HWO. THEN...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO SURGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH MODEST SHEAR AND WEAK FORCING FROM THE FRONT...COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS FIRE UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THAT SAID...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SPOTTY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS DEFINITELY NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS POINT. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACTUALLY APPEARS BE THE FOLLOWING NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SECONDARY FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THEREAFTER...CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDENT ON WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...AS AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION BACK ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM END TO THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME ISLD/SCT PRECIP IN THE TERMINAL AREAS SO WILL KEEP THE VCTS MENTION GOING...BUT CONFIDENCE IT OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SFC PATTERN WILL KEEP THE SRLY WINDS IN PLACE...BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO DIMINISH DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS A SFC BOUNDARY SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. SKY COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN ALSO START TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HEINLEIN SHORT TERM...JCB LONG TERM...ROSSI AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1250 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 KEPT THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AND JAMES VALLEY AREAS AS PREVIOUS UPDATE...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A WEAK TROUGH IN THE AREA...AND SAW THAT MINOT AND WILLISTON AREAS HAD SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG INVERSION SETTING UP WITH THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS VERY SMALL. ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA AS SOME CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR GLEN ULLIN WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. EXPECT ANY COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. FOR TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTATIONS ARE LOW FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. HRRR MESO MODEL TRIES TO GET A LINE OF CONVECTION GOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISHES THE CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. LOOKS AS THOUGH MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL FOCUS MORE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THEN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER WARM UP BY NEXT WEEKS END. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY LEADS TO SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY BY DAYS END INTO THE EVENING. COMPARED TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE SITUATION LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS SATURDAY EVENING/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING 40-50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME CIN WILL BE PRESENT...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY INHIBITION. SPC EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER MORE SOUTH TO INCLUDE MORE OF WEST AND CENTRAL ND TO ACCOMMODATE THOSE AREAS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL IMPULSES AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET. SURFACE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OFF TO MY NORTHEAST MAY TRIGGER ANOTHER STORM ON SUNDAY AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE LOOKS DRY SUNDAY DAYTIME WITH A BREEZY DRYING-OUT NORTHWEST WIND. ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE...TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MORE ROBUST WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY FOR THIS LATER FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND 80S...BUT ALMOST DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A RETURN OF MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND AND CONTINUED INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT BEYOND THE EXTEND PERIOD...NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS/KJMS UNTIL AROUND 10Z-12Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN ND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTERLY AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE TOWARDS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD UNTIL A COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH KISN/KDIK AROUND 01Z-02Z AND THROUGH KMOT/KBIS AROUND 03Z-04Z. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL CREATED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORAGE AT BOTH ALAMEDA DAM AND LAKE DARLING. RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM INCREASED TO 1060 CFS ON WEDNESDAY. RELEASES FROM LAKE DARLING DAM WILL REMAIN AROUND 2000 CFS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ON THE SOURIS RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JV SHORT TERM...WAA LONG TERM...NH AVIATION...JV HYDROLOGY...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAS FINALLY MOVED EASTWARD AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ON ITS WAY. ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SOME 70 DEW POINTS ARE STARTING TO POOL IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THINK THAT WINDS WILL STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION...BUT WITH THAT MUCH MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 ALMOST RIGHT AFTER THE PREVIOUS UPDATE WAS SENT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTED TO DEVELOP CENTERED AROUND THE FARGO AREA...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FROM NEAR FOSSTON DOWN TOWARDS THE RANSOM/SARGENT AREA. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING OVER THE SAME AREA...AND NONE OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT. THE WRF SEEMS THE CLOSEST BUT HAS TOO MUCH PRECIP IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY. FROM THE SPC MESO PAGE AND WV LOOP...IT SEEMS THAT THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WHERE THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING IN ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THINK THAT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WEAKEN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF AND THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHIFT TO THE EAST. BUMPED UP POPS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE 60-70 PERCENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY THEN BECOMING 40-50 PERCENT A BIT LATER ON. WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENT LATER. UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BUT MORE SCATTERED STORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL RRV AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND. MODERATE INSTABILITY CONTINUES BUT BULK SHEAR IS NOT THAT HIGH. WILL MONITOR FOR ANY STRENGTHENING OF STORMS BUT DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALSO CONCERNED WITH SEVERE CHANCES SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAP HAVING TROUBLE WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF CURRENT CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE MORE REALISTIC HRRR...SO WILL USE THE LATTER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS TRANSITIONING TO A GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SATURDAY AND BEYOND. 20 UTC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF NON-SEVERE CONVECTION. THE FIRST IS A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AND THE SECOND IS MUCH SMALLER ALONG THE EASTERN ND/SD BORDER. THIS SECOND AREA OF STORMS HAS THE GREATER POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE GIVEN A WEAKENING CAP IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FORCING WITH SHORT-WAVE ALOFT SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH AND MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION. OVERALL...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DRYING CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. SATURDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN AFTERNOON ENVIRONMENT THAT IS HIGHLY UNSTABLE (SFC CAPE RISING TO 4000 J/KG)...BUT CAPPED BY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MAIN QUESTION IS IF SFC CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED AND/OR MID-LEVELS WILL COOL ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. WILL FOLLOW SPC THINKING IN THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD BEGIN ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITION INTO SOME KIND OF MCS AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN LATE SATURDAY/ EARLY SUNDAY. THIS IDEA IS COVERED WELL IN SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S) WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT INDICATING A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...PLACING THIS REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE FLATTENS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ARE HARD TO TIME...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE A SITUATION WHERE MOST DAYS WILL HAVE ISOLD-SCATTERED T-STORMS FOR A SHORT DURATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES...POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS SOME CONVECTION MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE TAF SITES. SOME STORMS MAY STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF KBJI AND KFAR MAY STILL HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS...BUT OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE THINGS SETTLE DOWN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED A MENTION AT KDVL AFTER 03Z. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...ROGERS LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
314 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .DISCUSSION... A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES. WE WILL LEAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DUE TO A LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE AXIS/BOUNDARY. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE ISOLATED...BRIEF AND WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AND MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S. 79 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014/ FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON REPRESENTS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN. IN GENERAL...VFR CLOUDS AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULT IS SIMPLE ONE LINE TAFS FOR ALL AREA AIRPORTS. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE WILL BECOME CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES AT LEAST WEAK CAPPING PREVENTING THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORMS...LEFT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BECAUSE ANY CAPPING IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...WILL HAVE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO MONITOR FOR AFTERNOON ISOLATED CONVECTION INITIATION. EVEN IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP...WEAK WIND SHEAR SHOULD ENSURE SHORT LIVED STORMS WITH VERY LOCALIZED IMPACTS. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. CAVANAUGH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 94 74 97 75 97 / 5 10 5 5 5 WACO, TX 93 71 95 72 96 / 10 10 5 5 5 PARIS, TX 90 68 94 69 94 / 5 10 5 5 5 DENTON, TX 94 71 96 70 97 / 10 10 5 5 5 MCKINNEY, TX 92 68 95 69 96 / 5 10 5 5 5 DALLAS, TX 93 75 96 76 96 / 5 10 5 5 5 TERRELL, TX 91 71 94 71 95 / 5 10 5 5 5 CORSICANA, TX 92 70 94 72 95 / 5 10 5 5 10 TEMPLE, TX 92 70 95 71 95 / 10 10 5 5 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 70 96 69 98 / 10 10 5 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 91/79
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1151 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 .AVIATION... FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON REPRESENTS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN. IN GENERAL...VFR CLOUDS AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULT IS SIMPLE ONE LINE TAFS FOR ALL AREA AIRPORTS. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE WILL BECOME CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES AT LEAST WEAK CAPPING PREVENTING THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. WITH NO DISCERNABLE FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORMS...LEFT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BECAUSE ANY CAPPING IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...WILL HAVE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO MONITOR FOR AFTERNOON ISOLATED CONVECTION INITIATION. EVEN IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP...WEAK WIND SHEAR SHOULD ENSURE SHORT LIVED STORMS WITH VERY LOCALIZED IMPACTS. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. CAVANAUGH && .UPDATE... ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WANING AND SHOULD COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH 9 PM OR SO WHERE A FEW CELLS ARE LINGERING. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 80S AFTER SUNSET. 30 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014/ NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT ANCHORED OVER NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WERE PUSHING TOWARD 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A 850-750MB THETA-E AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THERE WAS LITTLE TO NO CAP THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SUBTLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. RELATIVELY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WAS FILTERING INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND CU FIELDS WERE NOT IMPRESSIVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE DEVELOPING FROM BRECKENRIDGE TO ABILENE WITH HIGH RES MODELS INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH SUNSET WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF DFW AND INCLUDING THE WACO/TEMPLE AREAS. WILL MAINTAIN EARLIER UPDATED POP LOCATION AND TIMING WITH ACTIVITY WANING QUICKLY BEFORE MOST FIREWORKS DISPLAYS GET GOING LATE THIS EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS AND STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE NEAR THE 850-750 THETA-E RIDGE FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THIS COMING WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING AND STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR ZERO ALL WEEK. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR DIURNAL AND ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MID WEEK AND COULD ALSO RESULT IN A STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AT THAT TIME. HAVE LEFT ANY LOW RAIN CHANCES OUT AT THIS TIME WITH TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING WITH REGARD TO SUBSIDENCE AND MOISTURE DEPTH. 05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 95 75 96 76 / 10 5 10 5 5 WACO, TX 71 94 72 95 73 / 20 10 10 5 5 PARIS, TX 68 91 69 93 71 / 10 5 10 5 5 DENTON, TX 70 94 73 96 73 / 10 10 10 5 5 MCKINNEY, TX 67 92 70 95 71 / 10 5 10 5 5 DALLAS, TX 73 93 75 95 76 / 10 5 10 5 5 TERRELL, TX 69 92 71 94 73 / 10 5 10 5 5 CORSICANA, TX 70 93 72 93 72 / 10 5 10 5 5 TEMPLE, TX 70 93 70 93 71 / 30 10 10 5 5 MINERAL WELLS, TX 68 94 70 96 70 / 20 10 10 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ /
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1136 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING BREEZY/GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY MID- LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAKING A RUN AT KCDS POST 00Z...BUT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE ALONG WITH EXPECTED COVERAGE REMAIN FAR TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014/ SHORT TERM... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS TO PERSIST ANOTHER DAY ACROSS THE FA BUT MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WHICH IS ENOUGH TO PUMP OUT 1500-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MINIMAL TO NO CAPPING. A NORTH- SOUTH AXIS OF WEAKLY HIGHER THETA-E/MIXING RATIO VALUES WAS OBSERVED IN RAP FORECAST FIELDS BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME CONVECTION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT AND THERE IS STILL LITTLE TO NO FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. BASES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS IN THE LOWER 90S. RISING HEIGHTS...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AND LESS MOISTURE WILL ACT TO QUELL ANY LOW LEVEL EFFECTS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. A REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR SATURDAY MORNING BUT SOME STRATUS MAY TRY TO EDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY GIVING LESS CHANCES OF MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION REACHING THE FA. HOWEVER A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER TOMORROW EVENING. LONG TERM... OTHER THAN THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF SOME STORMS TOMORROW EVENING... LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. BEST POPS APPEAR TO STAY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SO KEPT BARELY SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. PAST THAT...RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED WEST TO NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WHICH KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHTS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT THROUGH THE FORECAST WHICH MEANS TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DECENT MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 700 HPA WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH. JORDAN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 87 63 89 64 92 / 10 10 10 20 0 TULIA 88 64 89 65 93 / 10 10 10 10 0 PLAINVIEW 87 66 89 66 92 / 10 10 0 10 0 LEVELLAND 89 67 91 67 92 / 10 10 0 10 0 LUBBOCK 90 68 91 67 93 / 10 10 0 10 0 DENVER CITY 91 66 92 67 92 / 0 0 0 10 0 BROWNFIELD 90 67 92 67 92 / 10 10 0 10 0 CHILDRESS 91 69 93 71 96 / 20 20 10 10 0 SPUR 90 69 92 68 95 / 20 20 0 10 0 ASPERMONT 92 71 93 71 97 / 20 20 0 10 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
725 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ARTHUR WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MAINE TODAY AS A POST TROPICAL SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND AND BRINGS DRY PLEASANT WEATHER. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN A CHANCE OVER A BROADER AREA DURING MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 7 AM UPDATE... LAST REMAINING RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LVL COLD POOL AND MODEST LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z /10 AM/. CLOUD SHIELD IS VERY CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND SO AS SOON AS RAIN ENDS...CLEARING SHOULD FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND. THEREFORE...EXPECT TREND TOWARD SKC CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE WHICH WILL HOLD MUCH OF THE DAY. COULD SEE A BIT OF HIGH BASED DIURNAL CU LATER ON TODAY...BUT THIS IS UNLIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW. POPS WERE BASED ON THE HRRR WITH THIS UPDATE...AND BROUGHT TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO SPEED...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL BE LOWERED...CONSISTENT WITH THE 5 AM NHC ADVISORY. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS EASTERN MA AND NORTHERN RI...PRESUMABLY DUE TO A COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF. THE UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES EAST OF AREA AFTER 12Z. NONETHELESS...WILL NEED TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN ZONES AT THE START OF TODAY/S FORECAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE...LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO REGION BEHIND ARTHUR...DOWN TO 48 AT EEN AT 07Z. NW WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY WITH THE UNSTABLE PROFILE THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY...WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL FEEL MUCH LESS HUMID TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE REGION. ONE CONCERN FOR TODAY HAS BEEN THE RISK OF HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE RESIDUAL SWELL AFTER ARTHUR. OUR PROCEDURE FOR CALCULATING RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY LEVEL DOES NOT GO ABOVE MODERATE EVEN FOR THE INTUITIVELY VULNERABLE AREAS OF CAPE ANN TO SALISBURY...THE OUTER CAPE...SOUTH BEACH AREA OF MARTHA/S VINEYARD AND THE EAST AND SOUTH SHORES OF NANTUCKET. REALIZING THAT THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR THE WAVEWATCH MODEL TO DECAY THE SWELL TOO QUICKLY...HAVE MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE SWELL AND PERIODS UP SOME BUT STILL DO NOT GET ANY HIGHER RISK THAN MODERATE. WHAT MAY BE HAPPENING IS THAT THE TRAJECTORY AND STRUCTURE OF FAST MOVING ARTHUR WAS SUCH THAT THE SWELL ENERGY WAS GENERALLY MOVING SSW TO NNE AND LARGELY OPPOSED TO THE LOCAL WIND AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES AS ARTHUR PASSED BY. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF HIGH RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HIGH SURF IS NOT AS MUCH AS ONE MIGHT INITIALLY THINK THE DAY AFTER A TROPICAL CYCLONE PASSAGE. NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL BE PREPARED TO UPDATE IF BEACH REPORTS SUGGEST A HIGHER LEVEL OF ACTIVITY THAN THAT INDICATED BY OUR COMPUTATIONAL SCHEME. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRES DOMINATES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 50S TONIGHT IN ALL EXCEPT SOME OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL AND URBAN AREAS. MODELS SUGGEST A MODEST AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER OR MID 80S MOST AREAS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... OVERVIEW...05/00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL BE A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS ITS CORE POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS A PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOWLY PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE NEXT WEEK. FAVORED THE CONSENSUS BLEND TO TREND THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE ENOUGH MINOR DETAIL DIFFERENCES WHICH CAN BE SMOOTHED OVER BY THIS APPROACH... WITHOUT LOSING THE OVERALL PICTURE. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECTING INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ONCE MORE AS SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS RETURN. A COLD FRONT MAY SLOWLY APPROACH OUR AREA DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PROXIMITY OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WILL LEAD TO A GREATER RISK FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXACT TIMING IS NOT YET CERTAIN...BUT LEANING MORE TOWARD A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN FOR TUESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY...THIS IS A TRICKER FORECAST...LARGELY DUE TO TIMING OF THE FRONT WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH THROUGH MOST OF THE MID WEEK. CAN SEE A SCENARIO WHERE THIS FRONT IS SMACK IN THE MIDDLE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CAN ALSO SEE A SCENARIO WHERE THIS FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH WHERE A GOOD PORTION OF THIS DAY IS DRY. 05/00Z GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN 05/00Z ECMWF. THIS IS DUE TO THE ECMWF HAVING A MORE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. AT THIS TIME RANGE...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THESE TYPES OF TIMING DETAILS. FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... TODAY... VFR. E COASTAL RAINS SHOULD END BY 14Z. OTHERWISE MAIN ISSUE IS THE WINDS...WHICH WILL RANGE 310-330 MAINLY WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AT TIMES. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... VFR CONTINUES. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THEN SHIFT MAINLY TO THE W ON SUN. A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE ON SUN. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. RAIN SHOULD END AROUND 13Z. WINDS PICK UP WITH SOME GUSTS 25-30 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS PICK UP WITH SOME GUSTS 25-30 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE PACE OF SUBSIDING SEAS TODAY. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS ALL THE OPEN WATERS AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE RESIDUAL SWELL FROM ARTHUR. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A STRENGTHENING SW FETCH MAY START TO RAISE SEAS TO NEAR 5 FEET VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS SEAS ON COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS REACH 25 KNOTS MONDAY...THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5 TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>232-250-251-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ233>235-237. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY/THOMPSON NEAR TERM...DOODY/THOMPSON SHORT TERM...THOMPSON LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/DOODY MARINE...BELK/THOMPSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1017 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .UPDATE... ATLANTIC RIDGE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE HAS BEEN SLOWLY BUILDING WEST LAST NIGHT AND THIS IA EVIDENT ON THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS RETURNED, ALBEIT VERY WEAK AT 10 MPH OR LESS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH ALSO EXISTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND THIS CAUSING SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHICH IS AIDING IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WARM GULF/ATLANTIC WATERS. AT ANY RATE, WEAK SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. THE SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW PWAT AT JUST UNDER TWO INCHES WHICH IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY JULY. THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSTABLE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM WHICH IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT THEREFORE APPEARS TO BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50MPH ALONG WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. IN ADDITION, WITH THE DEEP BUT WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZES AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH IS WHAT THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING SO THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. KOB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014/ AVIATION... VFR VSBYS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES ALTHOUGH SOME REMNANT FU/HZ FROM FIREWORKS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR BRIEFLY AT SOME OF THE EAST COAST SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE. VCTS IS INCLUDED AT ALL AIRPORTS. MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM IS IN THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE WEAK FLOW A FEW STORMS COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE PREVAILING EAST- SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. KAPF SHOULD SEE A GULF BREEZE DEVELOP AS WELL WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO INITIATE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 90 77 89 78 / 40 30 30 30 FORT LAUDERDALE 89 80 90 81 / 40 30 30 30 MIAMI 89 78 89 80 / 40 30 40 30 NAPLES 90 75 90 76 / 40 30 40 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1033 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 MCV AND ASSOCIATED MESO COMPLEX WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ESE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE NEARING AN EXIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 18-20Z. SOME REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...NEARER THE WARM FRONT AND STRONGER FORCING BACK IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA/NORTHERN MO. FOR NOW...HAVE DIMINISHED POP THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON EAST BUT WILL REVISIT FORECAST AGAIN FOR THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS PICTURE OVER NEBRASKA AND POTENTIAL FOR RECOVERY THERE BECOMES MORE CLEAR. TEMPS HAVE COOLED A BIT WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COLD POOL WITH RAINFALL...THUS MOST OF EAST WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 MO VALLEY ELEVATED MCS CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS MORNING DRIVEN BY MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING. EFFECTIVE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...500-1000 J/KG AND AROUND 40KTS RESPECTIVELY...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION AND STORMS PUSHING SEVERE LIMITS JUST TO OUR WEST. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS THE MCS PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH IA LATER THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS BUT PRIMARILY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HEAVY RAINS MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT WITH RAP PWS NOW UP TO 1.8 FUELED BY STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT. COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WITH THE MEAN WIND AND NOT FOLLOWING UPWIND PROPAGATION /CORFIDI/ VECTOR SUGGESTING IT WOULD BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH AT 2-3KM WITH LESS LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE AND MORE DRIVEN BY HIGHER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. THUS WILL ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MENTION THIS MORNING BUT HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT ANTICIPATED. FORCING MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY HOWEVER SO HAVE LOWERED POPS WEST BUT KEPT CHANCES GOING EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS DOES BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES 4- 5K J/KG...BUT SOME CINH IS APPARENT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z. HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC WITH GFS...NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING VARIED DEGREES OF MIXING. WITH MCS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HAVE PLAYED IT MORE CONSERVATIVE AND BELOW RAP STAYING CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE. AIRMASS WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL THROUGH THE 60S BY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ROUGHLY ZONAL 500 MB FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTH BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE AMPLIFIED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CARVE OUT A MODEST 500 MB TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST OVER TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE FIRST SUCH IMPULSE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME STORMS TODAY AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE...AND THESE MAY LINGER IN OUR EAST AND SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OUT. THE SECOND IMPULSE WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING A COOL FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THERMAL RIDGING ALONG WITH MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE GOOD HEATING AND AN IMPRESSIVE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS...THOSE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES POTENTIALLY EDGING ABOVE 100 DEGREES MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD CAPPING THAT WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN. HAVE THUS MAINTAINED PRETTY LOW POPS...PEAKING SUNDAY EVENING AS CAPPING WEAKENS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THE COOL FRONT WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES LOWER WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SCOOTING THROUGH. THE STRONGEST 500 MB TROUGH OF THE SERIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING STRONG FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT OVERNIGHT AND PROBABLY YIELDING SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE ARE SOME TIMING QUESTIONS BUT IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A MORE WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS IOWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WAVE ALOFT. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF RELIEF WITH HIGHS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWER HUMIDITY. POPS WILL BE VERY LOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THE FAR EXTENDED IS A BIT TRICKER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BY THURSDAY THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. 500 MB TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN CARVED OUT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA...INITIALLY REPLACED BY WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER IOWA WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. THE GFS AND THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ RUN OF THE ECMWF HAD BEEN BUILDING THIS BIG HEAT DOME OVER IOWA INTO NEXT WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE AND IS USING A CANADIAN 500 MB TROUGH...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS DEPICTION...TO CARVE INTO THE RIDGE AND BRING THE INFAMOUS RING OF FIRE DOWN OVER IOWA NEXT WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION...HOT AND DRY UNDER THE BIG BUBBLE...SEEMS MORE FEASIBLE FOR NOW AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS AND FAIRLY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS APPROPRIATE. IF THE SOLUTIONS CONVERGE THAT WAY THEN LONG RANGE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE RAISED ABOVE CURRENT VALUES. && .AVIATION...05/12Z ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL AFFECT KFOD/KDSM/KOTM FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH MVFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS AT KDSM. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SCATTERED WEAKER CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE. CONCERN WILL THEN TURN TO FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT WITH RAIN TODAY AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS HAVE INTRODUCED AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...REV SHORT TERM...SMALL LONG TERM...LEE AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
712 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 MO VALLEY ELEVATED MCS CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS MORNING DRIVEN BY MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING. EFFECTIVE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...500-1000 J/KG AND AROUND 40KTS RESPECTIVELY...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION AND STORMS PUSHING SEVERE LIMITS JUST TO OUR WEST. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS THE MCS PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH IA LATER THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS BUT PRIMARILY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HEAVY RAINS MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT WITH RAP PWS NOW UP TO 1.8 FUELED BY STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT. COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WITH THE MEAN WIND AND NOT FOLLOWING UPWIND PROPAGATION /CORFIDI/ VECTOR SUGGESTING IT WOULD BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH AT 2-3KM WITH LESS LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE AND MORE DRIVEN BY HIGHER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. THUS WILL ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MENTION THIS MORNING BUT HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT ANTICIPATED. FORCING MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY HOWEVER SO HAVE LOWERED POPS WEST BUT KEPT CHANCES GOING EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS DOES BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES 4- 5K J/KG...BUT SOME CINH IS APPARENT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z. HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC WITH GFS...NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING VARIED DEGREES OF MIXING. WITH MCS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HAVE PLAYED IT MORE CONSERVATIVE AND BELOW RAP STAYING CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE. AIRMASS WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL THROUGH THE 60S BY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ROUGHLY ZONAL 500 MB FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTH BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE AMPLIFIED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CARVE OUT A MODEST 500 MB TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST OVER TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE FIRST SUCH IMPULSE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME STORMS TODAY AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE...AND THESE MAY LINGER IN OUR EAST AND SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OUT. THE SECOND IMPULSE WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING A COOL FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THERMAL RIDGING ALONG WITH MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE GOOD HEATING AND AN IMPRESSIVE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS...THOSE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES POTENTIALLY EDGING ABOVE 100 DEGREES MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD CAPPING THAT WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN. HAVE THUS MAINTAINED PRETTY LOW POPS...PEAKING SUNDAY EVENING AS CAPPING WEAKENS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THE COOL FRONT WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES LOWER WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SCOOTING THROUGH. THE STRONGEST 500 MB TROUGH OF THE SERIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING STRONG FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT OVERNIGHT AND PROBABLY YIELDING SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE ARE SOME TIMING QUESTIONS BUT IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A MORE WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS IOWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WAVE ALOFT. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF RELIEF WITH HIGHS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWER HUMIDITY. POPS WILL BE VERY LOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THE FAR EXTENDED IS A BIT TRICKER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BY THURSDAY THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. 500 MB TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN CARVED OUT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA...INITIALLY REPLACED BY WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER IOWA WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. THE GFS AND THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ RUN OF THE ECMWF HAD BEEN BUILDING THIS BIG HEAT DOME OVER IOWA INTO NEXT WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE AND IS USING A CANADIAN 500 MB TROUGH...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS DEPICTION...TO CARVE INTO THE RIDGE AND BRING THE INFAMOUS RING OF FIRE DOWN OVER IOWA NEXT WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION...HOT AND DRY UNDER THE BIG BUBBLE...SEEMS MORE FEASIBLE FOR NOW AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS AND FAIRLY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS APPROPRIATE. IF THE SOLUTIONS CONVERGE THAT WAY THEN LONG RANGE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE RAISED ABOVE CURRENT VALUES. && .AVIATION...05/12Z ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL AFFECT KFOD/KDSM/KOTM FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH MVFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS AT KDSM. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SCATTERED WEAKER CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE. CONCERN WILL THEN TURN TO FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT WITH RAIN TODAY AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS HAVE INTRODUCED AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SMALL LONG TERM...LEE AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
944 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 UPDATED TO INCREASE WINDS. BUFR SOUNDS SHOW WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO BE IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE AND CURRENT OBS SHOWING THESE WINDS ARE MIXING DOWN. NO CHANGES TO TSTSM CHANCES. WILL SEE SOME ISO STORMS IN THE FAR NORTH THIS MORNING. AM NOT SO CONFIDENT ABOUT AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS CAP. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESS/TROUGH... FROM CTRL CANADA TO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS... CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE CWA. LATEST RUC13 85H ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE TRANS AXIS ALIGNED FROM ERN SODAK INTO NWRN PART OF CWA. AN INITIAL BAND OF RAIN/TRW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR RAINY RIVER/BORDERLAND VICINITY. THIS SECOND AREA IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SO SOME 50DBZ CORES HAVE PUNCHED ABOVE 30K WITH STRONG/SVR STORMS POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CWA AS MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMUM SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE INTL BORDER. ELSEWHERE LIMITED ACTIVITY WITH WARM AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 TODAY...INITIAL MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMA AT 85H IS FCST TO SHIFT ACROSS ARROWHEAD EARLY MORNING AS ASSOCIATED MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES EAST. THIS 85H MSTR TRANS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO A TWIN PORTS TO CASS LAKE AXIS BY 18Z. AS THIS IS OCCURRING DEEP LAYER WAA WILL BEGIN TO INHIBIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER SWRN CWA. CONFIDENCE LOWER TO THE EAST AS UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER CONVECTION CAN REDEVELOP FROM EARLIER OUTFLOW BDRIES. WILL TREND DOWN POPS EXCEPT NORTH AND EASTERN CWA WHERE MID LVL CAP WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. VERY WARM HUMID DAY AHEAD AND USED HIGHER VALUES OF GEMREGBC FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY. DESPITE EARLY MORNING ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECT THAT ONCE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL WARM UP THE LAKEFRONT. TONIGHT...GENERAL IDEA IS THAT AN MCS/MCC WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OVER NODAK AND TRACK INTO CWA LATE TONIGHT. HI RES MDLS HAVE BEEN HIT OR MISS WITH RESOLVING ACTIVITY IN THIS PATTERN. USING GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL PUT DEVELOPMENT NEAR NODAK/NW MN BORDER AROUND 06Z...AND TRACKING ACROSS NRN/CTRL CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAYSHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SIGNALS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SYSTEM. WOULD EXPECT INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG/SVR STORMS WITH POSSIBLE WX WATCH REQUIRED FOR SOME PARTS OF CWA. TOMORROW...SFC LOW IN WRN ONTARIO WILL SWING A WINDSHIFT/TROF ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS ERN CWA BY MIDDAY/AFTN. BEHIND WINDSHIFT SHOULD SEE SIG WARMING AS FCST 925 TEMPS REACH 23C TO 25C. THIS GIVES MAX TEMPS IN MID 80S NEAR TWIN PORTS. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS I35 CORRIDOR TOWARDS ITASCA COUNTY. FCST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME ORGANIZATION WITH THREAT OF A FEW STRONG OR SVR STORMS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 THE SFC COLD FRONT EXITS THE FA SUNDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING BEHIND FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR THE EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN DRY OVERNIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A PARADE OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE RAIN FREE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS...ALTHOUGH IT WEAKENS IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE POPS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF FORCING TO INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE PRECLUDES ANYTHING MORE THAN HIGH CHANCE POPS. ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER TROF CROSSES NORTHERN MN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN BEST FORCING ARRIVES. LOWER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE TROF...BUT CAA WORTHY OF THE MENTION. INSTABILITY IS MISSING TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILD OVER THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF POPS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 02Z. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE AND SPEED OF THESE STORMS...HAVE OPTED TO USE VCTS. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 82 65 85 60 / 30 60 60 10 INL 86 66 77 57 / 40 60 60 10 BRD 86 69 84 63 / 20 50 50 10 HYR 81 68 86 61 / 20 50 70 10 ASX 84 65 84 59 / 20 50 60 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CLC SYNOPSIS...CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...GSF AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
633 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESS/TROUGH... FROM CTRL CANADA TO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS... CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE CWA. LATEST RUC13 85H ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE TRANS AXIS ALIGNED FROM ERN SODAK INTO NWRN PART OF CWA. AN INITIAL BAND OF RAIN/TRW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR RAINY RIVER/BORDERLAND VICINITY. THIS SECOND AREA IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SO SOME 50DBZ CORES HAVE PUNCHED ABOVE 30K WITH STRONG/SVR STORMS POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CWA AS MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMUM SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE INTL BORDER. ELSEWHERE LIMITED ACTIVITY WITH WARM AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 TODAY...INITIAL MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMA AT 85H IS FCST TO SHIFT ACROSS ARROWHEAD EARLY MORNING AS ASSOCIATED MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES EAST. THIS 85H MSTR TRANS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO A TWIN PORTS TO CASS LAKE AXIS BY 18Z. AS THIS IS OCCURRING DEEP LAYER WAA WILL BEGIN TO INHIBIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER SWRN CWA. CONFIDENCE LOWER TO THE EAST AS UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER CONVECTION CAN REDEVELOP FROM EARLIER OUTFLOW BDRIES. WILL TREND DOWN POPS EXCEPT NORTH AND EASTERN CWA WHERE MID LVL CAP WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. VERY WARM HUMID DAY AHEAD AND USED HIGHER VALUES OF GEMREGBC FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY. DESPITE EARLY MORNING ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECT THAT ONCE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL WARM UP THE LAKEFRONT. TONIGHT...GENERAL IDEA IS THAT AN MCS/MCC WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OVER NODAK AND TRACK INTO CWA LATE TONIGHT. HI RES MDLS HAVE BEEN HIT OR MISS WITH RESOLVING ACTIVITY IN THIS PATTERN. USING GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL PUT DEVELOPMENT NEAR NODAK/NW MN BORDER AROUND 06Z...AND TRACKING ACROSS NRN/CTRL CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAYSHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SIGNALS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SYSTEM. WOULD EXPECT INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG/SVR STORMS WITH POSSIBLE WX WATCH REQUIRED FOR SOME PARTS OF CWA. TOMORROW...SFC LOW IN WRN ONTARIO WILL SWING A WINDSHIFT/TROF ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS ERN CWA BY MIDDAY/AFTN. BEHIND WINDSHIFT SHOULD SEE SIG WARMING AS FCST 925 TEMPS REACH 23C TO 25C. THIS GIVES MAX TEMPS IN MID 80S NEAR TWIN PORTS. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS I35 CORRIDOR TOWARDS ITASCA COUNTY. FCST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME ORGANIZATION WITH THREAT OF A FEW STRONG OR SVR STORMS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 THE SFC COLD FRONT EXITS THE FA SUNDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING BEHIND FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR THE EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN DRY OVERNIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A PARADE OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE RAIN FREE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS...ALTHOUGH IT WEAKENS IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE POPS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF FORCING TO INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE PRECLUDES ANYTHING MORE THAN HIGH CHANCE POPS. ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER TROF CROSSES NORTHERN MN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN BEST FORCING ARRIVES. LOWER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE TROF...BUT CAA WORTHY OF THE MENTION. INSTABILITY IS MISSING TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILD OVER THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF POPS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 02Z. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE AND SPEED OF THESE STORMS...HAVE OPTED TO USE VCTS. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 82 65 85 60 / 30 60 60 10 INL 86 66 77 57 / 40 60 60 10 BRD 86 69 84 63 / 20 50 50 10 HYR 81 68 86 61 / 20 50 70 10 ASX 84 65 84 59 / 20 50 60 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...GSF AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
649 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 ON-GOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ABOUT AS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASED TO AROUND 50 KNOTS COINCIDENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THIS RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING IN EASTERN COUNTIES. THE 06Z RUN OF THE RAP AND THE NAM ACTUALLY KEEP CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THAT THE LIFT BEING GENERATED BY THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 15Z SUNDAY... WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS WERE INDICATING. THE NAM PUSHES IT INTO KANSAS BY 00Z BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE CLOSER TO 06Z. REGARDLESS OF EXACT TIMING...THIS FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH VERY UNSTABLE AIR...WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FACTORS AGAINST STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A CAP AS WELL AS A LACK OF BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER WITH LOW LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT/CONVERGENCE... A FEW STORMS COULD REACH THE LFC AND BECOME QUITE STRONG GIVEN THE INSTABILITY. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO MOVE POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH POPS PLACED IN AREAS LIKELY AFFECTED BY THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE/HEAT INDEX FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS COMPLICATED BY THE FRONT AS WELL AS POTENTIAL CONVECTION. ASSUMING ANY CONVECTION THAT WOULD DEVELOP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AND LOOSE DEWPOINT GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT...MOST AREAS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 105 ESPECIALLY SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES IN SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVES BACK EAST... AND A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SEE RETURN FLOW ON SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE PINNING DOWN POPS AND TIMING. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 LATEST RADAR SHOWS ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STEADILY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CLEAR ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. THIS CONVECTION IS ONLY A CONCERN AT KLNK AND KOMA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE INTERMITTENT FOR THE REST OF MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT ONCE THE MAIN CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAIN SHIFTS EAST. GENERALLY GOOD WEATHER THEREAFTER...ESPECIALLY BY MID AFTERNOON...AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS REMAIN. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS AN ENHANCED FOG POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. PROBABLY THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS WOULD BE AT KOMA WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN WAS RECEIVED EARLY THIS MORNING. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...NIETFELD LONG TERM...NIETFELD AVIATION...PEARSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
929 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .UPDATE... SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... DRIER AIR HAS TRIED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH VERY MOIST PWAT AIR REMAINING ACROSS THE HOUSTON AREA. HIGH RES HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF BOTH SHOW COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES TOWARDS OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. AT 500 MB VERY WEAK RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD WHICH SUPPORTS THE HIGH RES MODELS IN DEVELOPING PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT 12Z SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEAL FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AT KCRP (PWAT 1.87"). FORECAST PACKAGE HAS THIS COVERED. NO UPDATE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. 23 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014/ DISCUSSION... LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO NE/N PARTS OF THE REGION AND GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY CONFIRMS. STILL HAVE RESPECTABLE MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THE AREA AND WILL GEAR HIGHER POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-10 AND WEST OF I-45 TODAY. SEVERAL OUTFLOWS SEEN OFF THE UPPER COAST AND DISTINCT LANDBREEZE IS SETTING UP CONVERGENT ZONE SO WE COULD SEE SOME SCT ACTIVITY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINLY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF TO THE EAST. FURTHER ALOFT SE TX WILL REMAIN IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS BETWEEN RIDGES. COMBINATION OF BOTH SHOULD PROVIDE SOMEWHAT NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. SEABREEZE WILL BE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ISO/SCT PRECIP EACH DAY WITH OVERALL COVERAGE DEPENDENT ON SLIGHT VARIATIONS ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE. 47 MARINE... NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THIS FCST OF DIURNAL LANDBREEZE/SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.. AS THE HIGH EDGES EAST...WE SHOULD SEE SLOWLY IN- CREASING ONSHORE WINDS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THESE LIGHT/MOD- ERATE SELY WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. 41 AVIATION... AN ABUNDANCE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME SCT PCPN THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP THINGS QUIET FOR MOST OF OUR SITES THIS MORNING (EXCEPT MAYBE GLS). HOWEVER SOME OF THE SHORT-TERM PROGS ARE SHOWING AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE FOR THE SWRN PARTS OF THE REGION (WHERE MOISTURE AND INFLOW ARE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE). AS SUCH MAY HAVE TO RECONSIDER REINTRODUCING VCSH/VCTS FOR LBX/SGR THIS AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY. 41 CLIMATE... RAINFALL HAS NOW BEEN RECORDED IN HOUSTON ON JULY 4TH IN 11 OF THE PAST 15 YEARS...AND 59 OF THE PAST 126. THE 0.48" RECORDED YESTERDAY NEARLY MOVED IT INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST (5TH PLACE IS 0.51" SET IN 1898). 47 $$ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 92 72 93 73 93 / 20 10 20 10 30 HOUSTON (IAH) 93 72 92 73 92 / 30 10 30 10 30 GALVESTON (GLS) 89 78 89 79 89 / 30 20 20 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
924 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT FIRED UP OVER NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA PER THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW CONTINUES ON A EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK...STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SO HAVE BEEN LOWERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IN FACT...ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAY RIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ENDS UP DRY AS THE TRENDS IN THE 05.12Z RAP...HRRR AND NAM SUGGEST. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A CAP BUILDING INTO THE AREA AT 750MB THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...AIDING IN THAT DRY FORECAST. THE ONLY POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION INSTIGATOR IS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN MN SEEN ON WATER VAPOR. PERHAPS THIS SHORTWAVE COULD KICK SOMETHING OFF NORTH OF I-94 THIS AFTERNOON...OR IT MAY END UP BEING COMPLETELY NORTH OF MY CWA AS MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST. THUS...MAY NEED TO DO SOME REALIGNING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO FOCUS THEM MORE UP TOWARDS TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING VERSUS FARTHER SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN CHANCES BOTH THIS MORNING... AND AGAIN TONIGHT. 07Z RADAR LOOPS SHOW SOME SHOWERS/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND NORTH CENTRAL IA. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST INTO DRIER AIR. BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHERE A LARGER COMPLEX IS GETTING FIRED UP OVER NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN ASSISTING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL HAVE VARIED OPINIONS ON HOW THE RAIN IS GOING TO PAN OUT TODAY BUT THE GENERAL THINKING IS THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. COULD BE SOME ACTION THAT SURVIVES SO MAY HAVE TO CARRY SOME SMALL CHANCES. LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN THE RAIN THREAT THEN FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT SENDS SOME WEAK IMPULSES INTO NORTHERN WI BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD HELP GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT CERTAIN IF THIS WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI BY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORT WAVE IN THE INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT RIGHT DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME. WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE IN THE 3-4K J/KG RANGE WITH AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION OF STORMS THAT SHOULD FIRE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY...CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A COUPLE MORE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOK TO RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 CURRENTLY WATCHING A COMPLEX OF SHRA/TS MARCHING EAST ACROSS IA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AMID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. LOOKING FOR THIS FEATURE TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...KEEPING BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS SOUTH OF I-90 AND AWAY FROM KLSE/KRST TAF SITES TODAY. VFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE THE ONLY RESULT VFR CLOUD COVER THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. PLAN ON SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AS INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WORKS INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EXPECTING CLOUD BASES TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR RANGE BY 20Z AT KRST AND BY 01Z AT KLSE. COULD EVEN SEE CLOUD HEIGHTS DIP INTO IFR BRIEFLY AT KRST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES IN THE 3-6SM RANGE. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO RUN HIGH...BUT THE RIVER IS NOW PAST CREST EVERYWHERE IN OUR SERVICE AREA. OTHER TRIBUTARY CREEKS AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE BACK TOWARD A MORE NORMAL BASE FLOW. SOME CONCERN ON WHAT THE RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY WILL DO TO RIVER LEVELS...BUT ANY STORMS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE AS THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD RENEWED FLOOD RISK. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AJ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...DAS HYDROLOGY...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
137 PM PDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE DESERT AREA AND SIERRA NEVADA AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWS OVER THE AREA. && .DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL MOISTURE...REMINENTS OF POST TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS...CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWEST INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF KERN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. INITIALLY...WE WERE CONCERNED WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT...HOWEVER CHANCES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS ALL CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. IF THUNDERSTORM DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN TULARE AND FRESNO COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...GENERALLY BETWEEN 100 TO 105 THROUGH THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND TO NEAR 110 IN THE DESERT LOCATIONS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR TOMORROW...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AS WELL AS THE SIERRA CREST. THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST...HOWEVER MID LEVEL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE SIERRA CREST. BEGINNING MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FOCUSED ON THE SIERRA CREST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY AND DESERT LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTURY MARK INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY IF NOT THURSDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR NUDGE INTO THE UPPER 90S. REGARDLESS...THESE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE CONVECTION OVER THE REGION...BOTH TIMING AND AREA OF INITIATION. && .AVIATION... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS...TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BETWEEN 21Z TODAY THRU 06Z SUN. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PROBABLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... NONE. && .CERTAINTY... THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM. THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM. CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR KFAT 07-05 112:1991 77:1909 77:1991 52:1948 KFAT 07-06 111:2007 83:1903 78:2007 50:1955 KFAT 07-07 111:1905 84:1891 76:1936 53:1903 KBFL 07-05 114:1931 80:1961 81:1970 53:1948 KBFL 07-06 116:1913 85:1955 81:2011 52:1915 KBFL 07-07 114:1905 85:1983 81:1968 46:1903 && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...RILEY AVN/FW...DS SYNOPSIS...WP WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
312 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 MCV/MCS CURRENTLY EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD BACK BUT ARE RECOVERING ACROSS THE WEST. WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN MO THIS MORNING HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MESOSCALE SYSTEM...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. MODELS AT ODDS ABOUT CONVECTION COVERAGE TONIGHT...BUT HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH IOWA OVERNIGHT. WEAKEST PORTION OF THE H700 CAP FAVORS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HRRR REFLECTS SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH A BAND OF STORMS FORMING AFT 04Z NEAR I80 CORRIDOR...VARIOUS OTHER SOLUTIONS ALSO FAVOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EAST OR ALONG THE IOWA/MO BORDER BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND IMPINGES ALONG THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WILL INCREASE POPS AGAIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH...WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SUGGEST SOME SOUTHEASTERLY DRIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...IF CONVECTION GETS A BIT MORE ORGANIZED COULD SEE A QUICK INCH OR TWO TOTAL FROM ANY STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS PUSHING 13-14KFT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL RUNNING 1.5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. AFTER LAST NIGHTS/THIS MORNING RAINFALL... GRIDDED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS LOWERED TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER A GOOD SHARE OF THE SOUTH WITH 3 HOURLY GUIDANCE NEARING 2 INCHES OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER COUNTIES CONTINUE HIGHER...WITH 2 INCH VALUES FOR 1 HOUR AND 2 TO 3 INCH VALUES FOR 3 HOUR GUIDANCE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...NOT MUCH CAPACITY LEFT IN SOIL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOWS WILL CREEP UP TONIGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF MUCH SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE RATHER ACTIVE WX AND AN OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN OF WESTERLIES INVOF OF IOWA...EVOLVING FROM BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW TO BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. MAIN CHALLENGES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE TSRA CHANCES SUNDAY AFTN/EVE AS WELL AS LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH IOWA SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SUMMER-LIKE...WITH THERMAL RIDGING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT RESULTING IN SEASONALLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. AN IMPULSE WILL SWEEP A COOL FRONT INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY. QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST ALONG THE FRONT WILL THE TSRA DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE RESPECTABLE...CAPPING WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE WEST ACROSS THE STATE. BEST CHANCES OF TSRA WILL BE IN EASTERN IOWA...WHERE THE CAP WILL BE WEAKER AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE STRONGER. LOW- LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY LATE EVENING...SO HAVE BROUGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE STAGE BY THAT TIME. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY INVOF THE IA-MO BORDER BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF TSRA BY LATE MON. BOTH THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING WILL BE STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE ONE ON LATE SUN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ANOTHER COOL FRONT SOUTH THROUGH IOWA...EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY INVOF THE IA-MO BORDER. AMPLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SFC-BASED TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. AFTER THE FROPA MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING...CYCLONIC WESTERLIES WILL DOMINATE THE WX INTO LATER IN THE WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK IMPULSE PASSES OVER THE REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE BRINGING ANOTHER BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z RUN WAS CONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD WITH THE 00Z RUN. THIS SOLUTION IS ADMITTEDLY DIFFERENT THAN LAST NIGHT/S LONG TERM PACKAGE WHICH KEPT THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE CWA. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE CWA TO END THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...05/18Z ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE CIGS AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. OLD MCV/MCS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH POCKETS OF IFR CIG STILL EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION AT 100 PM...GRADUALLY THE CIGS SHOULD LIFT A BIT TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AS THE CONVECTION PULLS AWAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SOME HINT AT STORM REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL...SIGNAL NOT ALL THAT STRONG RIGHT NOW. BR WILL RETURN TOWARD 09Z WITH POTENTIAL 2-5SM VSBY FOR SEVERAL HOURS EITHER SIDE 12Z. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP FROM SW WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY 15Z AS CAP ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION DOWN UNTIL FRONT APPROACHES AFT 18Z ACROSS THE NORTH. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...REV LONG TERM...ZOGG AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
104 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 MCV AND ASSOCIATED MESO COMPLEX WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ESE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE NEARING AN EXIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 18-20Z. SOME REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...NEARER THE WARM FRONT AND STRONGER FORCING BACK IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA/NORTHERN MO. FOR NOW...HAVE DIMINISHED POP THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON EAST BUT WILL REVISIT FORECAST AGAIN FOR THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS PICTURE OVER NEBRASKA AND POTENTIAL FOR RECOVERY THERE BECOMES MORE CLEAR. TEMPS HAVE COOLED A BIT WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COLD POOL WITH RAINFALL...THUS MOST OF EAST WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 MO VALLEY ELEVATED MCS CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS MORNING DRIVEN BY MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING. EFFECTIVE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...500-1000 J/KG AND AROUND 40KTS RESPECTIVELY...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION AND STORMS PUSHING SEVERE LIMITS JUST TO OUR WEST. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS THE MCS PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH IA LATER THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS BUT PRIMARILY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HEAVY RAINS MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT WITH RAP PWS NOW UP TO 1.8 FUELED BY STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT. COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WITH THE MEAN WIND AND NOT FOLLOWING UPWIND PROPAGATION /CORFIDI/ VECTOR SUGGESTING IT WOULD BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH AT 2-3KM WITH LESS LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE AND MORE DRIVEN BY HIGHER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. THUS WILL ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MENTION THIS MORNING BUT HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT ANTICIPATED. FORCING MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY HOWEVER SO HAVE LOWERED POPS WEST BUT KEPT CHANCES GOING EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS DOES BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES 4- 5K J/KG...BUT SOME CINH IS APPARENT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z. HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC WITH GFS...NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING VARIED DEGREES OF MIXING. WITH MCS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HAVE PLAYED IT MORE CONSERVATIVE AND BELOW RAP STAYING CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE. AIRMASS WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL THROUGH THE 60S BY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ROUGHLY ZONAL 500 MB FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTH BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE AMPLIFIED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CARVE OUT A MODEST 500 MB TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST OVER TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE FIRST SUCH IMPULSE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME STORMS TODAY AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE...AND THESE MAY LINGER IN OUR EAST AND SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OUT. THE SECOND IMPULSE WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING A COOL FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THERMAL RIDGING ALONG WITH MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE GOOD HEATING AND AN IMPRESSIVE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS...THOSE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES POTENTIALLY EDGING ABOVE 100 DEGREES MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD CAPPING THAT WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN. HAVE THUS MAINTAINED PRETTY LOW POPS...PEAKING SUNDAY EVENING AS CAPPING WEAKENS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THE COOL FRONT WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES LOWER WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SCOOTING THROUGH. THE STRONGEST 500 MB TROUGH OF THE SERIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING STRONG FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT OVERNIGHT AND PROBABLY YIELDING SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE ARE SOME TIMING QUESTIONS BUT IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A MORE WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS IOWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WAVE ALOFT. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF RELIEF WITH HIGHS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWER HUMIDITY. POPS WILL BE VERY LOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THE FAR EXTENDED IS A BIT TRICKER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BY THURSDAY THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. 500 MB TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN CARVED OUT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA...INITIALLY REPLACED BY WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER IOWA WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. THE GFS AND THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ RUN OF THE ECMWF HAD BEEN BUILDING THIS BIG HEAT DOME OVER IOWA INTO NEXT WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE AND IS USING A CANADIAN 500 MB TROUGH...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS DEPICTION...TO CARVE INTO THE RIDGE AND BRING THE INFAMOUS RING OF FIRE DOWN OVER IOWA NEXT WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION...HOT AND DRY UNDER THE BIG BUBBLE...SEEMS MORE FEASIBLE FOR NOW AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS AND FAIRLY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS APPROPRIATE. IF THE SOLUTIONS CONVERGE THAT WAY THEN LONG RANGE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE RAISED ABOVE CURRENT VALUES. && .AVIATION...05/18Z ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE CIGS AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. OLD MCV/MCS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH POCKETS OF IFR CIG STILL EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION AT 100 PM...GRADUALLY THE CIGS SHOULD LIFT A BIT TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AS THE CONVECTION PULLS AWAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SOME HINT AT STORM REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL...SIGNAL NOT ALL THAT STRONG RIGHT NOW. BR WILL RETURN TOWARD 09Z WITH POTENTIAL 2-5SM VSBY FOR SEVERAL HOURS EITHER SIDE 12Z. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP FROM SW WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY 15Z AS CAP ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION DOWN UNTIL FRONT APPROACHES AFT 18Z ACROSS THE NORTH./REV && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...REV SHORT TERM...SMALL LONG TERM...LEE AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
248 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 244 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 Forecast today quickly challenged with mesoscale conditions as convective complex moved across eastern Nebraska in the early morning hours. An outflow boundary then moved southwest into northeast Kansas, through about Topeka to just east of Marysville. As southwesterly surface winds have strengthened through the day, they have worked to counter slightly reinforced outflow and push this boundary back to the north. Little progress was made on the east end, and appears as though the incoming upper shortwave evident on WV imagery will move across this boundary for the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. While shear is not ideal, and high surface dewpoints not conducive for a high end wind threat, there is enough instability (2000-3000J/kg range) to consider hail and possibly locally heavy rainfall a threat if these storms develop and move through. Forecast is certainly probabilistic - GFS confines convection more east, as does the EC, although the EC is slower with its exit through the morning on Sunday. The HRRR and NAM extend area of convection farther westward from NE KS and drop cluster of precip south southeast across the area through the evening hours. Have played the forecast toward the latter, although kept coverage isolated in nature as it passes through. Can`t rule out a bust with precip, especially as you go west, but do think the far eastern counties will see hit and miss showers and thunderstorms as the evening goes on. Heat returns on Sunday as mid level temperatures climb under the shortwave ridge behind the departing shortwave trof. Have highs in the 90s with heat indices coming out in the 99-103 range as the dewpoints hold around 70 east to the 60s west...however western counties are hotter so in the end heat index differences are subtle at best. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 244 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 By Sunday evening the cold front dips southward from central NE, straddling the KS and NE border near 00Z. The main upper trough positioned to our north and east at this time has given guidance lower confidence in precip developing near the weakly convergent frontal boundary until after midnight. Northern areas of the CWA have a slight chance for thunderstorms while most of the CWA remains dry. Monday afternoon will be another hot and humid day as the surface trough over western KS deepens, increasing southwesterly flow and mixing of warmer air aloft. Highs once again in the mid to upper 90s are likely with heat indices between 100 and 103 degrees. A more potent shortwave trough digs southward through the plains on Monday evening, shunting the cold front through the CWA by 18Z Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the Nebraska and northwest MO border, decreasing to a chance further south as the heavier precip bands follow the upper trough axis centered over central/northern MO. Wind shear through 6 KM increases overnight with the passing wave between 30 and 40 kts while MLCAPE is around 1500 J/KG. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out, especially if they redevelop or are able to become sfc based in the afternoon. Winds shift back towards the south with another incoming upper wave expected Wednesday evening. Trends show the heavier precip bands to impact mainly north central and portions of central KS where highest pops were placed. Precipitation will wane as it lifts northeast through Thursday, replaced by temporary ridging on Friday. Saturday begins the unsettled pattern once again as northwest flow begins to bring another series of weak disturbances through the region. Highs behind the boundary Tuesday through Thursday will cool back to the 80s with lows in the upper 60s. Increased warm advection Friday and Saturday, raise temps once again to the 90s accompanied by lows in the 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1225 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 Outflow boundary has made it as far south as TOP/FOE terminals, so have added tempo light winds to accommodate until southwesterly winds can push a retreat. Will add vcsh for current periods then VCTS for evening as slightly stronger wave pushes south into the area. Should clear just before sunrise at terminals. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM...Bowen AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
425 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND A DOWNSTREAM WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO(NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR) COMBINED WITH 25-30 KNOT 850-750 MB INFLOW OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR (MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 40 KNOT 0-6KM SHEAR SUPPORTED STRONG CONVECTION OVER NE MN AND ADJOINING PORTION OF ONTARIO. SOME SHRA/TSRA WERE ALSO SLIDING INTO LAKE SUPERIOR BUT WERE WEAKENING AS THE CONVECTION MOVED AWAY FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE AND SSW FLOW WAA PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE ONGOING SHRA/TSRA INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY SLIDE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NRN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...PER RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANG HIGH RES MODELS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM LATE THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS MUCH HIGHER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MCS DEVELOPMENT AND ITS EVENTUAL TRACK. EXPECT THAT THE HIGHER SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF UPPER MI BUT THAT SOME MAY MOVE INTO UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WITH ONLY LIMITED MUCAPE INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...ANY TSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. SUNDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER SHRTWV AND COLD FRONT MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THAT DEPENDS ON THE AMOUNT OF THICKER CLOUDS THAT LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH CLEARING DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 80S(DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S)...MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K RANGE COMBINED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE ORGANIZED STORMS. 0-1KM HELICITY/SHAPE IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS/SUPERCELLS. IF MORE PROMINENT CLOUDS REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAINLY OVER WI AND POSSIBLY INTO THE FAR SRN CWA. NMRS SHRA/TSRA OVER CNTRL UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE S AND ERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014 A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND SFC LOW WILL BE JUST N OF THE CWA WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA AT 00Z MON. CONVECTION...POSSIBLY SEVERE /SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON SEVERE THREAT/...WILL BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. BY 06Z MON...THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE ERN CWA...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION E OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO MOVE N OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON MON...BUT FORCING WILL STAY N KEEPING THE CWA DRY FOR THE MOST PART. THE NAM IS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN MON EVENING...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN PRECIP LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN CWA...BUT MOST OTHER MODELS SHOW THIS COMING IN MON NIGHT OR EVEN EARLY TUE. AS IS USUAL WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS IS QUITE LOW THIS FAR OUT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MODELS INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MON NIGHT OR TUE...WHICH APPEARS TO STAY S OF THE CWA. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO MOVE OVER THE NRN CWA TUE NIGHT...BUT WITH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE SHORTWAVE. WITH THE GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO AN ABOVE NORMAL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL OCCUR THU THROUGH NEXT SAT...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON SAT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014 VFR CONDITIONS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA WITH THE INCREASING SRLY FLOW. SOME TSRA ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION/TIMING IS ONLY MARGINAL...ONLY RPROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED OVER THE WEST. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUN MORNING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXIT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOK FOR THE RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TO WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR S MANITOBA SUNDAY MORNING SLIDES ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN SW OF JAMES BAY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH AVERAGING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN OR NEAR ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...JLB MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE REGION... BUT ONCE AGAIN THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THAT POTENTIAL WILL BE REALIZED. WE SHOULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON... WHICH WILL LIKELY GROW UP SCALE INTO AN MCS. IF THIS OCCURS OVER NORTH DAKOTA AS MOST OF THE MODELS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS... IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF IT WOULD TRANSLATE EAST ALONG THE THICKNESS CONTOURS AND MISS US TO THE NORTH. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE CAM SOLUTIONS THAT A SECOND COMPLEX COULD DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA... BUT IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD LIKELY TRANSLATE MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MISS US TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. A THIRD POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WOULD ACTUALLY BE SOONER... DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER OUR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWFA... IF ANYTHING MANAGES TO DEVELOP IN THE CU FIELD CURRENTLY IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. A COUPLE OF HOPWRF MEMBERS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT IS POSSIBLE... BUT THE OTHER MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE HRRR KEEP ANY OF THAT NORTH OF THE AREA. SO... OVERALL THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT... BUT IT IS BY NO MEANS A SLAM DUNK. WILL ALLOW POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH SOME DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS... WITH THAT AREA LOOKING TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE SOMETHING. ANYTHING THAT/S OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WOULD SHIFT EAST IN THE MORNING... SO TRANSLATED SOME CHANCE POPS EASTWARD. WE WOULD THEN NEED TO LOOK TOWARD DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT... WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE. THAT TIMING IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR AREA... AND WOULD MAINLY POINT TOWARD AREAS EAST OF I-35 HAVING A CHANCE OF SEEING SOMETHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO... PUT THE HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY... THEY WOULD CERTAINLY HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR AOA 35 KT... SO IT CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING AND WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN SHOULD THE FRONTAL TIMING WIND UP SLOWER. WE WILL MAKE A RUN AT 90 ON SUNDAY DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE SEE OVER THE AREA... WHICH COULD BE HIGHLY VARIABLE DEPENDING ON ANY ISSUES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. THE FAIRLY EARLY FROPA DOESN/T APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL... WITH MIXING ACTUALLY LOOKING TO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS NEAR 90. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. GOOD MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE DRYING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH A WAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO ND/MN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A BIT MID DECK OF STRATUS OR STRATO-CU MIGHT ACT TO SUPPRESS SBCAPE...BUT THERE SHOULD BE DECENT RECOVERY IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND SHOULD INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD POSE A HAIL THREAT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE SPC SLIGHT RISK SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO 30-50% ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE IDEA OF AT LEAST SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE WITH THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE AS THE TRIGGER. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CYCLONICALLY CURVED LONG WAVE PATTERN LINGERS THROUGHOUT AT LEAST MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE COOL EARLY START TO THIS JULY...WHICH SITS BETWEEN 4 AND 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS IN CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. HEIGHTS BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THE FLOW STILL REMAINS W-NW AND THE THERMAL RIDGE OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND HIGH PLAINS WILL STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE EAST. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE CFS...05.12Z GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR CORRESPONDING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH INDICATES A NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE...BUT OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS LOCALLY. IT DOES MEAN IF WE DONT REACH 90 TOMORROW...IT MAY BE SOME TIME BEFORE WE GET CLOSE TO THAT AGAIN. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 STILL APPEARS THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT MOST FORECAST SITES. HOWEVER... WITH WINDS A BIT LIGHTER TONIGHT SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CEILINGS. THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA... SO WILL PRIMARILY MENTION IT THERE. OTHERWISE... THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ISSUES WILL BE TIED TO PCPN CHANCES... AND THOSE STILL APPEAR TO MAINLY BE A CONCERN TO OUR NORTH AND PERHAPS OUR SOUTHWEST. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ONCE AGAIN... BUT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE WOULD SUGGEST ANY NORTHERN ACTIVITY WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AND ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH IN THE DAKOTAS WILL DIVE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MISS US TO THE SOUTH. THE GFS DOES BRING SOME MCS-LIKE PCPN INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT... BUT THE NAM AND ECMWF KEEP THINGS TO THE NORTH. IN ADDITION... THE MAJORITY OF CAM GUIDANCE FAILS TO BRING MUCH OF ANYTHING INTO THE AREA... CERTAINLY NOT A SUFFICIENT SIGNAL TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. KMSP...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE WHETHER WE SEE AN CONVECTION WORK INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT... AND WHETHER WE SEE ANY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR LOWER CEILINGS EVEN IF CONVECTION DOESN/T MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS LOW... AND GIVEN THE REASONS CITED ABOVE... DON/T THINK ANYTHING WILL GET INTO THE AREA AT THIS POINT AND TIME. HOWEVER... WE COULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AROUND LATE TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES... SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF THAT AFTER 08Z. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SUNDAY WITH THE FROPA... BUT TIMING OF IT CURRENTLY IMPLIES THAT ANYTHING WHICH DEVELOPS MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL IT IS THROUGH THE AREA... SO LEFT OUT ANY MENTION FOR NOW. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT. MONDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT. MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT. TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT. TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT. WEDNESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TRH LONG TERM...CLF AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
103 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 UPDATED TO INCREASE WINDS. BUFR SOUNDS SHOW WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO BE IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE AND CURRENT OBS SHOWING THESE WINDS ARE MIXING DOWN. NO CHANGES TO TSTSM CHANCES. WILL SEE SOME ISO STORMS IN THE FAR NORTH THIS MORNING. AM NOT SO CONFIDENT ABOUT AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS CAP. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESS/TROUGH... FROM CTRL CANADA TO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS... CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE CWA. LATEST RUC13 85H ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE TRANS AXIS ALIGNED FROM ERN SODAK INTO NWRN PART OF CWA. AN INITIAL BAND OF RAIN/TRW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR RAINY RIVER/BORDERLAND VICINITY. THIS SECOND AREA IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SO SOME 50DBZ CORES HAVE PUNCHED ABOVE 30K WITH STRONG/SVR STORMS POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CWA AS MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMUM SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE INTL BORDER. ELSEWHERE LIMITED ACTIVITY WITH WARM AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 TODAY...INITIAL MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMA AT 85H IS FCST TO SHIFT ACROSS ARROWHEAD EARLY MORNING AS ASSOCIATED MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES EAST. THIS 85H MSTR TRANS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO A TWIN PORTS TO CASS LAKE AXIS BY 18Z. AS THIS IS OCCURRING DEEP LAYER WAA WILL BEGIN TO INHIBIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER SWRN CWA. CONFIDENCE LOWER TO THE EAST AS UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER CONVECTION CAN REDEVELOP FROM EARLIER OUTFLOW BDRIES. WILL TREND DOWN POPS EXCEPT NORTH AND EASTERN CWA WHERE MID LVL CAP WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. VERY WARM HUMID DAY AHEAD AND USED HIGHER VALUES OF GEMREGBC FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY. DESPITE EARLY MORNING ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECT THAT ONCE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL WARM UP THE LAKEFRONT. TONIGHT...GENERAL IDEA IS THAT AN MCS/MCC WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OVER NODAK AND TRACK INTO CWA LATE TONIGHT. HI RES MDLS HAVE BEEN HIT OR MISS WITH RESOLVING ACTIVITY IN THIS PATTERN. USING GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL PUT DEVELOPMENT NEAR NODAK/NW MN BORDER AROUND 06Z...AND TRACKING ACROSS NRN/CTRL CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAYSHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SIGNALS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SYSTEM. WOULD EXPECT INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG/SVR STORMS WITH POSSIBLE WX WATCH REQUIRED FOR SOME PARTS OF CWA. TOMORROW...SFC LOW IN WRN ONTARIO WILL SWING A WINDSHIFT/TROF ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS ERN CWA BY MIDDAY/AFTN. BEHIND WINDSHIFT SHOULD SEE SIG WARMING AS FCST 925 TEMPS REACH 23C TO 25C. THIS GIVES MAX TEMPS IN MID 80S NEAR TWIN PORTS. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS I35 CORRIDOR TOWARDS ITASCA COUNTY. FCST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME ORGANIZATION WITH THREAT OF A FEW STRONG OR SVR STORMS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 THE SFC COLD FRONT EXITS THE FA SUNDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING BEHIND FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR THE EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN DRY OVERNIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A PARADE OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE RAIN FREE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS...ALTHOUGH IT WEAKENS IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE POPS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF FORCING TO INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE PRECLUDES ANYTHING MORE THAN HIGH CHANCE POPS. ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER TROF CROSSES NORTHERN MN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN BEST FORCING ARRIVES. LOWER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE TROF...BUT CAA WORTHY OF THE MENTION. INSTABILITY IS MISSING TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILD OVER THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF POPS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR IFR/MVFR CONDTIONS AT BRD DUE TO LOW STRATUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTIUNE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTROMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS AFTER 06Z. THIS AREA WILL SPREAD INTO THE OTHER TAF SITES AND MAY CAUSE IFR/MVFR CONSTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 82 65 85 60 / 30 60 60 10 INL 86 66 77 57 / 40 60 60 10 BRD 86 69 84 63 / 20 50 50 10 HYR 81 68 86 61 / 20 50 70 10 ASX 84 65 84 59 / 20 50 60 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CLC SYNOPSIS...CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...GSF AVIATION...STEWART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 348 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014 (Tonight) Complex of thunderstorms that persisted into early afternoon have finally began to diminish as they moved into limited instability to the east and little forcing to the south. This evening, the RAP and localWRF shows a rapid increase of low level moisture convergence and MUCAPE across the northern CWA which supports the going PoPS that we already have going in the forecast. Going temps fit in well with new agreeable MOS temps. Southern and eastern CWA are still in under the influence of a retreating ridge. Britt .LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 348 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014 (Sunday through Tuesday) Will keep a chance of thunderstorms going over the the area on Sunday, with the best chances going during the morning hours over the northeastern half of the CWA. This is where the strongest low level moisture convergence coincides with the weak ascent that a shortwave trough will provide as it passes through the area. This is supported by various simulated reflectivity of the convective allowing WRFs. The latest run of the GFS appears too deep with the trough because of convective feedback. Thunderstorms are also expected to develop over Iowa and northern Illinois later in the day and early evening in a very unstable airmass along a southeastward moving cold front. Will continue the chance of shower and thunderstorms over the area as these storms will be gradually diminishing in intensity through the night as they move into the CWA. By Monday and Tuesday this front will have become nearly stationary over the area under west northwesterly flow. Will keep high chance or low likely chances given the high CAPEs and the weak vort maxes moving the upper flow. It still looks like highs will reach the mid 90s over the central part of the CWA including the St. Louis metro area on Monday afternoon. Combine this with expected dewpoints in the lower 70s and heat index readings will top out around 100. (Wednesday through next Saturday) Both the GFS and ECMWF show the cold front pushing into the Mid South by Wednesday as the mean trough moves to the east of the area. However differences between the two models begin to show up by Friday as the ECMWF is much more aggressive in moving a deeper trough across the northern CONUS than the GFS. Consequently, the ECMWF brings a cold front across the area on Saturday while the GFS instead is building a ridge across the area. The ECMWF does not appear to have good continuity with this feature, so will not go along with this solution. Instead, will keep with a chance of thunderstorms over the southern CWA on Wednesday which will be the area in closest proximity to the front. Will also keep going chance of thunderstorms over the area on Friday as both models continue to indicate that the front will move through the CWA as a warm front. 850mb temperatures of +15C support below normal temperatures in the mid 80s for Wednesday and Thursday before temperatures climb back closer to normal by next Saturday. Britt && .AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014 Ongoing convection over northern Missouri/southern Iowa has been slow in its progression due to increasingly stable air to the south and east of the showers/thunderstorms. KUIN is the most likely candidate to experience precipitation this afternoon as the activity moves east, however, the convection should continue to gradually weaken. MVFR flight conditions may occur in areas of rainfall, though otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to continue. An area of thunderstorm activity currently over mid Missouri may impact KCOU, however, uncertainty in its progression has warranted only a VCTS mention this afternoon. Expect precipitation today to remain well north/west of metro TAF sites. Another round of precipitation could impact area TAF sites overnight tonight and early tomorrow morning, with the GFS indicating more widespread activity, with showers and thunderstorms expanding from northwest Missouri into the metro area by daybreak. The NAM keeps precipitation focused more over northern MO/southern IA as well as over western MO. Given the uncertainties in the evolution of precipitation overnight, and particualrly concerning any diurnal development on Sunday, have gone with dry TAFs beyond this afternoon. Otherwise, high clouds will continue to overspread the area today and tonight, with winds maintaining a southerly to southwesterly direction, increasing to 10-15KT Sunday. Specifics for KSTL: Have currently maintained dry, VFR conditions for the duration of the forecast. Precipitation today will remain well north and west of the terminal, and while some models indicate showers/thunderstorms developing and impacting the terminal around daybreak Sunday, model disagreement and uncertainty has precluded mention in the TAF at this time. There will also be the potential for showers/thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon, but activity may hinge on the evolution of any precipitation overnight, along with associated remnant boundaries. High clouds will continue to stream over the terminal, with diurnal cumulus developing once again on Sunday. Winds will remain generally out of the south to southwest for the duration, and should increase to around 10-13KT Sunday. JP && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
254 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight into Sunday) Issued at 254 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 Currently, large expanse of high level clouds have enveloped much of the outlook area. This is blow off from a convective complex to our north. Over the past few hours, this area of showers and storms has rapidly decayed, with just a few lingering showers near northern portions of Miller/Maries counties. This activity will dissipate over the next hour or so, with additional development expected later. Temperatures have been affected, somewhat, by the high cloud coverage, with most locations in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The only exception is across extreme southeastern Kansas and western Missouri where mid/upper 80s are a bit more common. Anticipate that scattered TSRA will redevelop to the northwest of the CWA later today in line with the HRRR and NAM12...however models handling how this will propagate inconsistently. Given orientation of the moisture transport/low level Theta E would anticipate activity to build soutwestward into the night...then take on an easterly component toward morning as the relatively weak low level jet veers east. Questions for convection then on Sunday more of a question. Should be plenty of instability and even a bit of support from a dampening short wave. However rain may be hard to come by unless the overnight convection is able to generate an outflow boundary. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 254 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 Warming trend will continue into Monday with areas over the west witnessing the highest heat indices of the season before heights start to fall and a wavy weak front arrives on Tuesday. Models have been consistent with convective development along the front Tuesday into early Wednesday as the front slowly descends into Arkansas. Questions continue as to how far south the front makes it into Arkansas and scattered storms may then continue along the Arkansas border through the end of the work week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 VFR conditions will persist for at least the next 24 hours across the region. Thunderstorm complex entering central Missouri will stay north of the area this afternoon. Will be monitoring thunderstorm development and organization later this afternoon in northeastern Kansas. While instability is high, shear is on the low side, as a result there will be the potential for these storms to move southward tonight. Have gone ahead and included a PROB30 group at JLN in the event this activity moves this far to the east. The better bet is for this activity to remain mostly in Kansas. Future TAF updates will further refine the risk. Otherwise, southerly winds and passing mid/high level clouds will be common. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gagan/Runnels LONG TERM...Runnels AVIATION...Gagan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
315 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS HAVE ABOUT MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT A FEW THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA AND PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE AND WHAT HAPPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE NAM...THE RAP AND THE HRRR PRODUCE A LITTLE QPF/THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH THE SPRINKLES THAT FORMED EARLIER BELIEVE THAT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE COULD BE A GOOD IDEA IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING THERE TO BE MUCH BUT A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP. A SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WELL INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES DURING THE DAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. HAVE KEPT THE SMALL POPS IN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES ON THIS AS WELL. MANY OF THE MODELS ARE DRY...BUT A FEW SHOW SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 PATTERN: IT IS LOOKING DECIDEDLY MORE SUMMERLIKE. OVERALL THE MEAN LONGWAVE FLOW WILL FEATURE A WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WITH SEASONABLE CHANGES IN AMPLITUDE. ONE THING IS CLEAR...WE HAVE TRANSITIONED TO A CONSIDERABLY DRIER PATTERN. THE PATTERN THAT BROUGHT THE VERY WET JUNE IS NO LONGER WITH US...AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FCST OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL USA THRU MID-MONTH THREATEN SOME PERSISTENCE TO THIS DRYNESS. THE ONLY DECENT PROSPECT FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS MON NIGHT AND EVEN THEN NOT ALL AREAS WILL GET IT. EXPECT IRRIGATION WILL BE NECESSARY VERY SOON. ONE THING NOTED BY THE WPC /WX PREDICTION CTR AT NWSHQ/ IS TYPHOON NEOGURI FCST TO RECURVE IN THE WRN PACIFIC. ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND ABSORPTION INTO THE WESTERLIES COULD RESULT IN A PATTERN RE-ADJUSTMENT AROUND MID-MONTH. ALOFT: THE SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL HIGH HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED AND WILL BE OVER THE SW USA THRU MID-WEEK. STORMINESS OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL FORCE A TEMPORARY AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE INTO WRN CANADA. THIS WILL LOWER HEIGHTS AND SEND A SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE CNTRL/ERN USA THIS WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED TROF WILL SLIDE THRU MON NIGHT FOLLOWED BY CYCLONIC NW FLOW TUE-WED. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THRU THU AHEAD OF A TROF MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC. WHILE THE ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THIS TROF WILL ACTUALLY STAY N OF THE BORDER... ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO EXPAND ACROSS THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...AM NOT BUYING IT. THE PAST 2 EC/GEM/GFS CYCLES HAVE AMPLIFY THE PATTERN WITH THE ERN USA TROF BEING CARVED OUT AGAIN. THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE CONTROL RUN SHOWS THIS VERY NICELY AND THIS IDEA FITS THE PATTERN. SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT IS ADVANCING THRU THE FCST AREA SUN AFTERNOON WILL STALL OVER NRN KS MON...AWAITING A STRONGER SECOND FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE THRU MON NIGHT. THIS SECOND PUSH WILL FORCE THE COMPOSITE FRONT DEEPER INTO THE SRN PLAINS. COMFORTABLE HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TUE-WED WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING THU AS THE HIGH HEADS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW PRES WILL CROSS WRN CANADA DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND BEGIN DRAWING THE FRONT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT THU. FRI IT HEATS BACK UP IN THE WARM SECTOR...THEN A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI NIGHT OR SAT. HAZARDS: AN ISOLATED PROBABLY NON-SVR TSTM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE MON NIGHT WITH LEGIT SVR POTENTIAL. BEYOND THAT...ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS UNORGANIZED AND IS LOW CONFIDENCE. THE DAILY DETAILS... UNCERTAINTY IS WAY ABOVE AVERAGE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE TSTM POTENTIAL ALONG THIS FRONT. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IMPRESSIVE NOW...TOMORROW`S HEAT WILL MIX OUT THESE HIGH DWPTS WITH NO REPLENISHMENT. 12Z SOUNDINGS AROUND THE REGION THIS AM SHOW THERE ARE REALLY NO GOOD/DEEP BANDS OF MOISTURE. THIS LACK OF MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE CAP. 09Z SREF DOES SUGGEST PORTION OF THE NARROW RIBBON OF 10-12C 850 MB DWPTS ALONG THE FRONT WILL CIRCULATE ANTICYCLONICALLY BACK INTO THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WAITING TO INTERCEPT THE NEXT FRONT. BOTTOM LINE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY MOST OF THE TIME SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS FCST WOULD BETTER BE VIEWED FROM THE STANDPOINT THAT THERE IS AN 80% CHANCE THAT TSTMS WILL NOT FORM. "IF" AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO MANAGES TO DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK /10-15 KTS/. THIS SUGGESTS AT BEST NICKEL SIZE HAIL. LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE NEAR 10K FT WHICH WOULD THREATEN WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. MON NIGHT: A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND AND THE LLJ IN ADVANCE. CONSIDERABLE CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD HAVE 2000- 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. WE DO NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT FOR SUPERCELL POTENTIAL... BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...EMBEDDED BOWS AND LEWP`S WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE HAVE NOTED THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WX AND WE ARE IN AGREEMENT. THIS FCSTR CONTS TO SEE TUE-THU COOLER THAN WHAT MEX MOS AND EVEN THE DAYS 4-7 INITIALIZATION HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. THIS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY RELUCTANT TO LOWER TEMPS. BASED ON ENSEMBLE TEMP ANOMALIES ...HAVE TRENDED THE FCST HIGHS CLOSER TO THE EC/GEM 2M TEMPS WHICH HAVE HAD A SIZABLE COOLDOWN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TUE: CLEARING AS MON NIGHT`S MCS DEPARTS THE REGION. HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO 77-86F...A LITTLE BELOW THE 4 AM GID FCST. THIS IS ROUGHLY 8F COOLER THAN NORMAL. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS BEFORE NOON. WED: VERY NICE. TEMPS BEGIN CREEPING UP A LITTLE...BUT STILL 4-5F COOLER THAN NORMAL. WED NIGHT: GOOD LLJ DEVELOPMENT WITH A BURST OF THETA-E ADVECTION. COULD SEE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS FORM WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THU: QUESTIONABLE. IT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY WARM FRONTAL CLOUDINESS DEPARTS ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING EFFECTS FROM POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT WED NIGHT. THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE A SUBSTANTIAL TEMP GRADIENT FROM SW-NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WHILE AREAS FROM ORD- GREELEY-FULLERTON MAY BE JAMMED IN THE 70S...AREAS FROM BEAVER CITY- OSBORNE KS MAY BE IN THE UPPER 90S. FRI: ANOTHER THRUST OF BIG TIME HEAT IN THE WARM SECTOR. BELIEVE ODDS FAVOR 95-105F. LOOK FOR THIS TIME FRAME TO TREND HIGHER. FRI NIGHT OR SAT: POSSIBLY A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 EXPECT ONLY A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TODAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JCB LONG TERM...HALBLAUB AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1154 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 PRODUCTS AND GRIDS WERE UPDATED EARLIER. WILL STILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOWS POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THERE. OTHERWISE JUST MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO HIGHS...WINDS AND CLOUDS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 ON-GOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ABOUT AS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASED TO AROUND 50 KNOTS COINCIDENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THIS RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING IN EASTERN COUNTIES. THE 06Z RUN OF THE RAP AND THE NAM ACTUALLY KEEP CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THAT THE LIFT BEING GENERATED BY THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 15Z SUNDAY... WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS WERE INDICATING. THE NAM PUSHES IT INTO KANSAS BY 00Z BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE CLOSER TO 06Z. REGARDLESS OF EXACT TIMING...THIS FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH VERY UNSTABLE AIR...WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FACTORS AGAINST STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A CAP AS WELL AS A LACK OF BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER WITH LOW LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT/CONVERGENCE... A FEW STORMS COULD REACH THE LFC AND BECOME QUITE STRONG GIVEN THE INSTABILITY. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO MOVE POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH POPS PLACED IN AREAS LIKELY AFFECTED BY THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE/HEAT INDEX FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS COMPLICATED BY THE FRONT AS WELL AS POTENTIAL CONVECTION. ASSUMING ANY CONVECTION THAT WOULD DEVELOP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AND LOOSE DEWPOINT GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT...MOST AREAS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 105 ESPECIALLY SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES IN SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVES BACK EAST... AND A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SEE RETURN FLOW ON SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE PINNING DOWN POPS AND TIMING. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TSTM CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES FOR NOW. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY UNDER 15 KNOTS TODAY AND UNDER 9 KNOTS TONIGHT. SOME FOR IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT DID NOT MENTION FOR NOW. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MILLER SHORT TERM...NIETFELD LONG TERM...NIETFELD AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE NEAR-TERM
NWS WILMINGTON NC
444 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND ANCHOR OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALLOWING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RETURN MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GRADUALLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PIEDMONT AND SAND HILLS OF THE CAROLINAS...WILL LED TO AN INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK...MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT BY JULY STANDARDS...WITH MOST PLACES ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. THESE DEVIATIONS MAY BE A BIT SMALLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THERE WILL BE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED BELOW ABOUT 7KFT AND THE EXTENT OF OUR CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAINTAINED OR EVEN INCREASE. THE LATTER SEEMS MORE LIKELY AS THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY WILL BE MAINTAINED BY THE MID LEVEL ENERGY TRAVERSING IT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH TO OUR NORTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...ANOTHER DAY WITH RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY BEFORE THE CANADIAN HIGH MIGRATES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY THAN SUNDAY DUE TO VEERING WINDS AND THE USHERING OF A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME AIR-MASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. ON AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPS MONDAY LOOKS TO PAN OUT 4-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER GA/SC MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR VERY SOUTHERN COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR TO NEAR CAPE FEAR SUNDAY. DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF EXPECTED PCPN AND CELL COVERAGE...AND ONLY ISOLATED POP VALUES WILL BE ADVERTISED FOR THE SC ZONES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY DRY AND QUIET START TO THE PERIOD AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND/LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS WITH THE AID OF A HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST . TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS AND FIZZLES WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...OR IF IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA AND STALLS. OVERALL...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP WITH A NON-FRONTAL PASSAGE EVENT...BUT RATHER HAVING IT STALL/FALL JUST SHORT TO OUR WEST. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER/POPS AND KEPT INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS MOISTURE INCREASES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY MORE. AS FOR TEMPS WE WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 18Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE ENE-ESE WITH SPEEDS SLOWLY DECREASING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E JUST TO THE N OF THE TERMINALS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SO OTHER THAN A FEW AFTN CU...AND SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CLOUD COVER. E WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO E-NE AROUND 5 KTS THIS EVENING. SUNDAY MORNING WINDS WILL BE E-SE AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 440 PM SATURDAY...I HAVE UPDATED THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH STRONGER SPEEDS THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST. SUSTAINED WINDS ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD THROUGH MYRTLE BEACH AND GEORGETOWN ARE 15-20 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 22 KNOTS RECENTLY REPORTED AT SPRINGMAID PIER IN MYRTLE BEACH. 12Z AND 18Z GFS AND NAM PLUS THE RECENT HRRR RUNS CAPTURE TRENDS WELL AND ARE THE BASIS FOR THIS UPDATE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SEAS HAVE ALSO BEEN BUMPED UP...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 0-5 MILES OF THE COAST WHERE FORECAST MODIFICATIONS ON THE ORDER OF +2 TO +3 FEET HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. SEAS FARTHER FROM SHORE (10-20 MILES) ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...ONSHORE ENE-E WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN BUMPY 3-4 FOOT SEAS FOR THE MOST PART...BUT AS WINDS GO SE AND S INTO AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SEAS WILL LIKELY DROP ANOTHER FOOT OR SO. SO WHILE NOT IDEAL CONDITIONS...NO ADVISORIES OR EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED. NO TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY DOT AREAS AROUND WINYAH BAY. THE MAJORITY OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ARRIVING FROM E AND SE AND A MODERATE CHOP FROM THE S-SW IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS NEAR 20 KT. AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH AFTERNOON. WITH MAINLY WIND DRIVEN WIND WAVES...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT WITH 5 FTERS POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME OUTER WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN AMZ-252 AND AMZ-250. INTO THURSDAY...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...MBB/TRA SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...SGL AVIATION...MRR/MBB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HRRR IS ONCE AGAIN PERFORMING MORE FAVORABLY THAN RAP AS IT RELATES TO CURRENT CONVECTION...SO WILL FOLLOW ITS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS AND THEN TRANSITION TO A GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE. SFC TROUGH REFUSES TO BUDGE WITH A DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR THE ND/MN/MB BORDER. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION FROM DEVILS LAKE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN A DRIER OVERALL AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH SFC BASED CAPE IS STILL ABOVE 2000 J/KG. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NORTHWEST MN IN UNCAPPED MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAREST THE SFC LOW. FORCING IS STILL RATHER WEAK...BUT ONE SEVERE STORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER WINNIPEG AND IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. A COUPLE OTHER SMALL CELLS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE SFC WIND SHIFT JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER AND IN KITTSON COUNTY. ISOLATED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH INSTABILITY. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S. FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA. INCREASING SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH MUCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHWEST MN. HRRR PLACES THIS LINE ALONG THE VALLEY FLOOR BY 06 UTC. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPS/DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER RESULTING IN LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AT TIMES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST MON/TUES WITH THE NEXT PRIMARY WAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW DEEP NEXT 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE OVER ONTARIO AND GREAT LAKES REGION. EITHER WAY FCST REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EXITING SHORT WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE FOR WED-EARLY THU. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT US LATE THU-FRI. DIDNT STRAY FROM ALL BLEND TEMPS NOR POPS MUCH. OVERALL TEMP REGIME AFTER THIS WEEKEND FAVORS A RETURN TO JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT/TIMING REMAIN AT LOW CONFIDENCE AND THUS CONTINUED TO USE VCTS IN TIME PERIODS WHEN BEST CHANCE WILL BE. WEAK TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE RRV LATE AFTN/EVE WILL GIVE A LIGHT WIND TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST...BUT A MORE DEFINITE NORTHWEST WIND TAKING SHAPE AFTER 12Z SUN IN ERN ND/RRV. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROGERS LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
223 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .DISCUSSION... HOT SUMMER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE LOW RAIN CHANCES AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WIDESPREAD RAINS REMAIN UNLIKELY. THERE MAY BE A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING NEAR AND ALONG AN ENHANCED AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF I-35 WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES AND MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. LATEST HRRR RUNS DEPICTED THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW...DID NOT INCLUDE RAIN IN THE FORECAST AS COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 PERCENT. ANY SHOWER OR STORM WOULD BE PULSE IN NATURE...MOVE VERY SLOWLY...AND PERHAPS PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND DOWNPOURS. NOT SURE THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE DUE TO THE LACK OF LIFT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET. A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR A WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH MAY MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AFTER 7 PM. WITHOUT A STRONG TRIGGER FOR LIFT...LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TO 10 PERCENT AND WENT WITH ISOLATED MENTION NORTH OF A CHEYENNE TO BLACKWELL LINE. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE POORLY ORGANIZED STORMS AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN. LATE TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME INDICATION WEAK ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR NORTH OF A VERNON TEXAS TO ADA LINE...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION AS CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE A BIT HOTTER COMPARED TO TODAY WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN. STORM CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 95 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE BOTH DAYS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...REACHING NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY. ADDED LOW RAIN CHANCES...AROUND 20 PERCENT...TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT...THEN KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINS OR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY. FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. MBS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 94 72 96 / 10 10 10 0 HOBART OK 71 97 71 101 / 10 10 10 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 72 97 73 99 / 10 10 10 0 GAGE OK 71 97 71 100 / 10 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 74 96 74 99 / 10 10 0 0 DURANT OK 71 94 73 97 / 10 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 04/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .DISCUSSION... AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN BR/HZ MAY OCCUR 10-14Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. TS COVERAGE/CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION. NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH OF A KFDR-KLAW-KOUN 01-15Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. MBS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014/ UPDATE... UPDATE TEMPS/PRECIP/WX... DISCUSSION... ONLY MINOR UPDATES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE STEADILY CLIMBING THROUGH THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS WRN OK/WRN N TX... TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS CENTRAL OK. FOR THE LATE AFTN/EVENING... CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEAK CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN OK... WELL AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS WRN KS INTO NERN NM. KEPT PRECIP/WX FORECAST RELATIVELY THE SAME FROM THE NIGHT SHIFT... AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY. RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM KWWR/KGAG PLACE THE CONVECTIVE TEMP SOMEWHERE NEAR 100... WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME LOCATIONS ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE OK/TX PH... BUT INITIATION WILL STILL BE A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE WEAKLY FORCED AND MODEST SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WITH THAT SAID... ANY UPDRAFT THAT IS ABLE TO GO WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS... GIVEN TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE LOW LEVELS... AND LL LAPSE RATES IN THE 9-10.5 C/KM RANGE. JTK PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014/ DISCUSSION... WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED STORM WORDING IN FORECAST FOR MAINLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...IN PROXIMITY TO S/WV TROUGH THAT WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. NEXT MENTIONABLE POPS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA...DRIVEN BY DAILY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND FLOW THROUGH BASE OF GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER BASINS. GREATEST CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE RAIN TOTALS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND EAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...BUT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE PICTURE ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM TODAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASE IN CLOUD POTENTIAL AND FRONT/OUTFLOWS COMPLICATING MID-WEEK TEMP FORECASTS. CONSENSUS APPROACH TO GRIDDED FORECAST TAKES THIS INTO ACCOUNT. THIS KEEPS THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF ANTICIPATED FRONT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK. DEWPOINT VALUES ARE NOT PROGD TO BE EXCESSIVE SO MOST AREAS WILL SEE HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO DRY BULB READINGS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 92 72 93 72 / 0 10 10 10 HOBART OK 95 70 96 71 / 0 10 10 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 94 72 97 73 / 0 10 10 10 GAGE OK 94 70 97 71 / 10 20 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 92 74 96 74 / 0 10 10 0 DURANT OK 89 71 94 73 / 0 10 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 04/17/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .UPDATE... UPDATE TEMPS/PRECIP/WX... && .DISCUSSION... ONLY MINOR UPDATES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE STEADILY CLIMBING THROUGH THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS WRN OK/WRN N TX... TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS CENTRAL OK. FOR THE LATE AFTN/EVENING... CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEAK CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN OK... WELL AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS WRN KS INTO NERN NM. KEPT PRECIP/WX FORECAST RELATIVELY THE SAME FROM THE NIGHT SHIFT... AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY. RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM KWWR/KGAG PLACE THE CONVECTIVE TEMP SOMEWHERE NEAR 100... WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME LOCATIONS ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE OK/TX PH... BUT INITIATION WILL STILL BE A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE WEAKLY FORCED AND MODEST SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WITH THAT SAID... ANY UPDRAFT THAT IS ABLE TO GO WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS... GIVEN TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE LOW LEVELS... AND LL LAPSE RATES IN THE 9-10.5 C/KM RANGE. JTK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014/ DISCUSSION... WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED STORM WORDING IN FORECAST FOR MAINLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...IN PROXIMITY TO S/WV TROUGH THAT WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. NEXT MENTIONABLE POPS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA...DRIVEN BY DAILY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND FLOW THROUGH BASE OF GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER BASINS. GREATEST CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE RAIN TOTALS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND EAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...BUT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE PICTURE ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM TODAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASE IN CLOUD POTENTIAL AND FRONT/OUTFLOWS COMPLICATING MID-WEEK TEMP FORECASTS. CONSENSUS APPROACH TO GRIDDED FORECAST TAKES THIS INTO ACCOUNT. THIS KEEPS THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF ANTICIPATED FRONT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK. DEWPOINT VALUES ARE NOT PROGD TO BE EXCESSIVE SO MOST AREAS WILL SEE HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO DRY BULB READINGS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 93 72 96 / 10 10 10 0 HOBART OK 70 96 71 100 / 10 10 10 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 72 97 73 98 / 10 10 10 0 GAGE OK 70 97 71 99 / 20 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 74 96 74 99 / 10 10 0 0 DURANT OK 71 94 73 97 / 10 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 04/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
347 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Sunday) Cumulus development was more extensive over West Central Texas than yesterday. While the 17Z HRRR model reflectivity did indicated isolated shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon, cumulus at 3 PM had limited vertical extent, and expect dry conditions this evening. Dry conditions continue Sunday as upper ridging holds over the region. Will maintain a persistence forecast, with lows in the lower 70s and highs in the mid 90s. .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Warm and dry conditions will continue across West Central Texas through next week. The center of the upper high will remain over the four corners region through midweek, then flatten and expand east across the Southern Plains through next Saturday. Models still show a weak TUTT moving into extreme south Texas and far northeastern Mexico by Wednesday. This feature will remain nearly stationary across this area through Thursday, then drift slowly west across Northern Mexico by early next weekend. About the only noticeable effect from the TUTT will be an increase in some diurnal cumulus by mid to late week. Temperatures through the extended period will remain at or slightly above seasonal normals for this time of year. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 72 94 71 96 72 / 5 5 5 5 5 San Angelo 72 95 69 96 72 / 5 5 5 5 5 Junction 69 94 70 95 70 / 5 5 5 5 5 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 04/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .AVIATION... EXPANDING CU FIELD AT 17Z STRETCHES FROM ROUGHLY GLS TO IAH TO CLOSE TO UTS. SOME SHRA/TSRA ARE DEVELOPING IN AND AROUND THE AREA OF DEEPEST MOISTURE NEAR THE COAST...AROUND THE GLS AND LBX AREAS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OFFSHORE CONVECTION IS MOVING INLAND ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE GLS AREA. AS HEATING CONTINUES...THINK WE WILL SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT AS BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE LBX AND HOU AND SGR SITES AND MONITOR HOW THINGS PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO EXPAND MORE WESTWARD THAN NORTHWARD...BUT WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED IF SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN AND AROUND THE IAH AND POSSIBLY THE CXO SITES. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014/ UPDATE... SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE. DISCUSSION... DRIER AIR HAS TRIED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH VERY MOIST PWAT AIR REMAINING ACROSS THE HOUSTON AREA. HIGH RES HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF BOTH SHOW COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES TOWARDS OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. AT 500 MB VERY WEAK RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD WHICH SUPPORTS THE HIGH RES MODELS IN DEVELOPING PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT 12Z SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEAL FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AT KCRP (PWAT 1.87"). FORECAST PACKAGE HAS THIS COVERED. NO UPDATE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. 23 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014/ DISCUSSION... LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO NE/N PARTS OF THE REGION AND GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY CONFIRMS. STILL HAVE RESPECTABLE MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THE AREA AND WILL GEAR HIGHER POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-10 AND WEST OF I-45 TODAY. SEVERAL OUTFLOWS SEEN OFF THE UPPER COAST AND DISTINCT LANDBREEZE IS SETTING UP CONVERGENT ZONE SO WE COULD SEE SOME SCT ACTIVITY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINLY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF TO THE EAST. FURTHER ALOFT SE TX WILL REMAIN IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS BETWEEN RIDGES. COMBINATION OF BOTH SHOULD PROVIDE SOMEWHAT NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. SEABREEZE WILL BE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ISO/SCT PRECIP EACH DAY WITH OVERALL COVERAGE DEPENDENT ON SLIGHT VARIATIONS ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE. 47 MARINE... NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THIS FCST OF DIURNAL LANDBREEZE/SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.. AS THE HIGH EDGES EAST...WE SHOULD SEE SLOWLY IN- CREASING ONSHORE WINDS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THESE LIGHT/MOD- ERATE SELY WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. 41 AVIATION... AN ABUNDANCE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME SCT PCPN THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP THINGS QUIET FOR MOST OF OUR SITES THIS MORNING (EXCEPT MAYBE GLS). HOWEVER SOME OF THE SHORT-TERM PROGS ARE SHOWING AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE FOR THE SWRN PARTS OF THE REGION (WHERE MOISTURE AND INFLOW ARE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE). AS SUCH MAY HAVE TO RECONSIDER REINTRODUCING VCSH/VCTS FOR LBX/SGR THIS AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY. 41 CLIMATE... RAINFALL HAS NOW BEEN RECORDED IN HOUSTON ON JULY 4TH IN 11 OF THE PAST 15 YEARS...AND 59 OF THE PAST 126. THE 0.48" RECORDED YESTERDAY NEARLY MOVED IT INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST (5TH PLACE IS 0.51" SET IN 1898). 47 $$ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 92 72 93 73 93 / 20 10 20 10 30 HOUSTON (IAH) 93 72 92 73 92 / 30 10 30 10 30 GALVESTON (GLS) 89 78 89 79 89 / 30 20 20 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...23 AVIATION/MARINE...42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1237 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT FIRED UP OVER NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA PER THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW CONTINUES ON A EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK...STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SO HAVE BEEN LOWERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IN FACT...ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAY RIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ENDS UP DRY AS THE TRENDS IN THE 05.12Z RAP...HRRR AND NAM SUGGEST. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A CAP BUILDING INTO THE AREA AT 750MB THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...AIDING IN THAT DRY FORECAST. THE ONLY POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION INSTIGATOR IS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN MN SEEN ON WATER VAPOR. PERHAPS THIS SHORTWAVE COULD KICK SOMETHING OFF NORTH OF I-94 THIS AFTERNOON...OR IT MAY END UP BEING COMPLETELY NORTH OF MY CWA AS MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST. THUS...MAY NEED TO DO SOME REALIGNING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO FOCUS THEM MORE UP TOWARDS TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING VERSUS FARTHER SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN CHANCES BOTH THIS MORNING... AND AGAIN TONIGHT. 07Z RADAR LOOPS SHOW SOME SHOWERS/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND NORTH CENTRAL IA. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST INTO DRIER AIR. BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHERE A LARGER COMPLEX IS GETTING FIRED UP OVER NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN ASSISTING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL HAVE VARIED OPINIONS ON HOW THE RAIN IS GOING TO PAN OUT TODAY BUT THE GENERAL THINKING IS THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. COULD BE SOME ACTION THAT SURVIVES SO MAY HAVE TO CARRY SOME SMALL CHANCES. LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN THE RAIN THREAT THEN FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT SENDS SOME WEAK IMPULSES INTO NORTHERN WI BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD HELP GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT CERTAIN IF THIS WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI BY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORT WAVE IN THE INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT RIGHT DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME. WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE IN THE 3-4K J/KG RANGE WITH AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION OF STORMS THAT SHOULD FIRE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY...CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A COUPLE MORE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOK TO RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW IS GRADUALLY BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE TAF SITES. AN MVFR DECK HAS BEEN MANIFESTING ITSELF ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND SHOULD SPREAD INTO RST BY 20Z. BELIEVE THE AID OF THE VALLEY AT LSE WILL HELP KEEP CEILINGS THERE VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT AND PERSISTENT MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION...ANTICIPATING CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RST TO GO IFR AT LEAST FOR A TIME BETWEEN 07-10Z. VISIBILITIES ALSO LIKELY TO GO DOWN TO MVFR BY LATE EVENING. BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD GO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING. LOOKING AHEAD...A BAND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 20-22Z...THEN QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST. HARD TO SAY IF THE TAF SITES WILL BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED AT THIS TIME...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THESE TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO MUCH LOWER VISIBILITIES. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014 THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO RUN HIGH...BUT THE RIVER IS NOW PAST CREST EVERYWHERE IN OUR SERVICE AREA. OTHER TRIBUTARY CREEKS AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE BACK TOWARD A MORE NORMAL BASE FLOW. SOME CONCERN ON WHAT THE RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY WILL DO TO RIVER LEVELS...BUT ANY STORMS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE AS THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD RENEWED FLOOD RISK. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AJ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...AJ HYDROLOGY...MW