Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/04/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
GREATLY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR A FEW
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. THE BULK OF ALTOCUMULUS
CASTELLANUS (ACCAS) CLOUDS OBSERVED FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA
DURING THE 13Z-14Z PERIOD THIS MORNING HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S-50S F...AND THESE
TEMPS WERE NEARLY 5-15 DEGS F HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE
TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS THIS TIME TUE.
02/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS ABOUT 0.90 INCH...
AN INCREASE OF NEARLY 0.25 INCH VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 24 HOUR TEMP
CHANGE PLOT DEPICTED COOLING OF ABOUT 2-4 DEGS C MOSTLY ABOVE 700
MB. THE ENVIRONMENT WAS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...WITH LIFTED INDEX OF
MINUS 1.4 AND UNMODIFIED SURFACE-BASED CAPE OF 296 J/KG. 02/12Z
UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED 592 DM HIGH CENTERED OVER NERN AZ WITH
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWD INTO WRN MONTANA. LIGHT NELY FLOW PREVAILED
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER...AND LIGHT WLY FLOW PREVAILED ABOVE 400 MB.
02/14Z RUC HRRR AND THE 02/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM YIELDED A SIMILAR
POTENTIAL PRECIP SCENARIO THRU TONIGHT. THE FIRST PRECIP ECHOES WERE
PROGGED TO DEVELOP AROUND 19Z TODAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...
THEN SUBSEQUENT ECHOES WERE PROGGED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY THEREAFTER
ACROSS SEVERAL MOUNTAIN RANGES IN COCHISE/GRAHAM COUNTIES. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MOVE SWWD TOWARD THE TUCSON METRO AREA...
MAINLY AFTER 03/00Z. CURIOUS TO NOTE THAT THE UNIV OF AZ MODEL
DEVELOPED ADDITIONAL ECHOES ACROSS ERN PIMA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.
THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MERGING WITH
MOISTURE SURGE TO BE EXPANDING EWD ACROSS PIMA COUNTY.
AT ANY RATE...THESE SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THAT DEPICTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON MOSTLY ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE THEN FORECAST THIS EVENING EXCEPT ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY WHERE PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WILL AWAIT RECEIPT
OF THE 02/12Z GFS/ECMWF BEFORE POTENTIALLY INCREASING POPS LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR THE TUCSON METRO AREA.
THE MAIN IMPACT/CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW...WITH BRIEF GUSTS
PERHAPS APPROACHING 50 KTS. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON...AND AVERAGE ABOUT 2-4
DEGS F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SE ARIZONA INTO THURSDAY.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF -SHRA/TSRA EAST TO SOUTH OF TUCSON
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW -SHRA THIS EVENING MOVING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL DESERTS WEST OF TUCSON. THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WITH SPEEDS LIKELY IN THE 35-45 KTS RANGE.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE KDUG TERMINAL SITE WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST RISK THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE THESE DOWNBURST WINDS. THUS...
WILL BE ADDING THIS TO THE KDUG 12Z TAF IN THE 02/20Z-23Z TIME
FRAME. OTHERWISE THE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS MORNING E OF KTUS AT 10-14
KFT AGL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. BY THIS AFTERNOON E OF KTUS EXPECT
CLOUD DECKS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN THE 8-14KFT AGL RANGE. THERE
WILL BE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AROUND AFTER 03/06Z. SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SW-NW 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS. NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT GUSTY AND ERRACTIC WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
STARTING TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT
STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...BY THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME WESTERN PIMA COUNTY...SCATTERED STORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS...INCLUDING TUCSON AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES BETWEEN TUCSON AND NEW MEXICO...WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME OF THE STORMS PROGRESS
FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TO PRODUCE OUTFLOWS WITH SUFFICIENT STRENGTH TO RESULT IN BLOWING
DUST CONCERNS BETWEEN TUCSON AND PHOENIX. ALSO MY POP FORECAST
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MAY
NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. FOR NOW I HAVE 20% POPS FOR ALL OF PIMA COUNTY
AS FAR WEST AS AJO.
MY POP FORECAST FOR FRIDAY SHOWS SIMILAR RAIN CHANCES AS FOR
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...MY CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY FORECAST BEING THAT
SIMILAR IS NOT HIGH. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM WEST OF BAJA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST...AND THE DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MOVES WEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE
FOCUS MY BE FARTHER WEST...WITH A BIT LESS EMPHASIS TOWARD NEW
MEXICO WHERE MODELS SUGGEST SOME DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO FILTER IN FROM
NEW MEXICO. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE POP FORECAST AS IS AND THE DAY
SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE THE SITUATION BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL
RUN.
AFTER FRIDAY LOOKING AT BASICALLY ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED
ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...THEN 1
TO 3 DEGS BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GLUECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
529 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 437 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER OUR NRN ZONES
THIS AFTN SO BUMPED UP POPS IN THAT AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST THINKING AS CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIE
DOWN AS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
MOISTURE IS BEING WRAPPED UP IN COUNTERCLOCKWISE FLOW UNDERNEATH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THOUGH DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AFTER 8PM DUE TO INCREASING STABILITY WITH SFC COOLING.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
LATE IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE AREA OF CONVECTION WELL
TODAY AND PROJECTS MOISTURE TO WRAP BACK AROUND FROM THE EAST
AFTER 6PM IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN REGION BUT DISSIPATED BY
MIDNIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WELL WITH 0.75 INCH PWATS REMAINING UNDER THE RIDGE...MEDIOCRE
40KT DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND INCREASED SUNSHINE DUE TO A LACK OF
ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...DUE TO A LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING
AND STEERING...STORM CELLS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NOT DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS. THE SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORED AS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
IN THIS REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK FOR CONTINUED HOT TEMPS. MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH NORTH OVER UT/WRN CO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
POOLING OVER SRN AZ/SRN NM/NWRN MEXICO TO GRADUALLY EXPAND
NORTHWARD...WHILE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH.
DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY SMALL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM MOST AFTERNOONS IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION.
STORM COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL...TO SCATTERED OVER THE SAN JUANS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 0.5 TO 0.65 INCH THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MIX
OF WET AND DRY STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS NEAR SOME
TAFS. HOWEVER...RADAR MOSAIC STARTING SHOW A DOWNTICK IN
CONVECTION AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH MOST CONVECTION
FINISHED BY 03Z. AFTER THAT TIME...VFR WILL BE PREVALENT THOUGH
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STILL BE PRESENT. ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION IS ON TAP FOR TOMORROW WITH MTN TAF SITES POSSIBLY
SEEING MORE VCTS OR -TSRA ALONG WITH KDRO AS SRN AREAS DO REMAIN
FAVORED. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL SEE SCT SKIES BECOMING BKN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH VFR CONDITIONS BEING THE NORM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR
DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CO ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONCENTRATED OVER THE SAN JUAN
MTNS SO FAR TODAY BUT WILL DRIFT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FWX
ZONE 207 LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. STORMS WERE MORE ISOLATED
ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND...STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MIX OF WET
AND DRY. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK KEEPING
THE DRYING POTENTIAL HIGH.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ207-290>293.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
633 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT FOR THE REGION. A COLD FRONT AND A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE AGAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH LESS HUMID AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 632 PM EDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED
FOR THE REST OF AREA AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN CANCELED. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES...MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
TACONICS...AND PORTIONS OF NW CT FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. THE
FCST AREA IS IN BRIEF SUBSIDENCE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC
TROUGH...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORMING DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST.
THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMN REF SHOWS A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT STILL WELL
TO THE WEST OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA. THIS
LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AS IT MOVES INTO THE ALY FCST AREA
BTWN 00Z-02Z...AS THE SFC BASED INSTABILITY HAS WANED QUITE A BIT
BASED ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA WITH 500-1000 J/KG.
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SFC DEWPTS STILL IN THE 60S
AND SPOTTY LOWER 70S WITH ONLY WEAK COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE
MTNS AND NRN TIER...AND MID 60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED AND ROUND 2 OF
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. CLOUDS MAY BECOME A GREATER ISSUE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED AGAIN WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITH POCKETS
GREATER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BASED ON
THE NAM/GFS. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40
KTS...WITH MULTICELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE AGAIN. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE A LIFTING MECHANISM...THOUGH ANOTHER PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...AND MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALSO FOCUS
THE CONVECTION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS
STILL IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S TO
L70S. FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO BE A THREAT AGAIN...AND ADDITIONAL
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME.
SOME OF THESE INGREDIENTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT
/PRE/ WELL IN ADVANCE OF ARTHUR...BUT PERHAPS TODAY WAS A PRE
TOO. WE BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A PRE IS FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR
AREA BASED ON THE CSTAR RESEARCH IN NJ AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...A STRIPE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB...AND OVER PART OF WRN NEW ENGLAND BASED
THE CANADIAN...RFC AND NAM GUIDANCE. TRAINING LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOO...SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING
AGAIN. IT IS INTERESTING BEST JET DYNAMICS ARE DISPLACED FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST OVER WRN-NRN NY WITH A JET STREAK OF 75-100 KTS.
SOME OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT REAR QUAD. POPS WERE
KEPT IN THE HIGH LIKELY RANGE TOMORROW...AND THE HEAVY RAIN WAS
EMPHASIZED IN THE GRIDS. WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE HWO FOR TOMORROW. WILL A
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOT AS WARM AS
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE HILLS
AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS.
TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT TOWARD THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BY DAYBREAK...THE RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS LINGERING
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. ARTHUR LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST OF AREA FOR LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. COLD
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST FROM NW TO SE WITH H850 TEMPS OF
+8C TO +11C FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST...AND +11C TO +14C TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE M50S TO L60S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
INDEPENDENCE DAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN EXTREME OF THE FCST
AREA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. THIS WILL HELP
STEER ARTHUR FURTHER EAST OF THE EAST COAST. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S WITH A BRISK W/NW WIND IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION NW OF
ARTHUR. THE GFS HAS THE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING WITH
H850 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO +8C TO +11C OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
INDEPENDENCE DAY/FRI NIGHT...BEAUTIFUL...LOW HUMIDITY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR ANY FESTIVITIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND MIDWEST WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER WX. LOWS WILL
MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME U40S OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN
DACKS.
FOR ALL THE OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INTERNET SITE
(WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV).
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A QUICK EXTENDED FORECAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE WPC GUIDANCE
WAS FOLLOWED VERY CLOSELY EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR CHANGES NOTED BELOW.
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IS EXPECTED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +13C RANGE ON SATURDAY WITH W/NW
WINDS AND DEWPTS IN THE U40S TO M50S. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WITH A COOL
EVENING...AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
SUNDAY SHOULD STILL FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE...AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE FOR THE CLOSING OF THE 4TH OF JULY
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH U70S
TO L80S OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA...WITH LOWER TO M70S OVER THE
MTNS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINS TO RETURN TO
THE FCST AREA WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AND DEWPOINTS RISING
BACK INTO THE 60S. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS S-CNTRL
ONTARIO INTO SW QUEBEC. A WARM FRONT MAY GRAZE THE NW ZONES WITH A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY MORNING. A SFC TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK HEATING.
LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID AND POSSIBLY
U80S IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS...AND WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH
WILL BE IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE IS VARIABLE...AND WE FOLLOWED WPC WITH THE FROPA LIKELY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE DID NOT GO WITH
LIKELY POPS YET ON TUE...AND WENT WITH CHC VALUES INSTEAD. SOME
INDICATIONS OF INCREASED AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH THE GFS...AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SO A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED FOR TUE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS LATE WED.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MVFR/IFR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POTENTIAL IFR FOG TONIGHT...AND A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE
VFR...HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GROUPS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO IFR CONDITIONS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES BEGINNING AT THE ONSET OF THE TAF PERIOD AND PERSISTING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KNOTS...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 03/02Z...THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 18Z-00Z.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THEIR WAKE...PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH A TRENDING OF WINDS
TOWARDS CALM...IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. IFR FOG SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR FLYING CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS MAY
REACH KPOU BY 15Z AND HAVE INDICATED A PROB30 GROUP THERE WITH AN
ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THE
SHOWERS WILL END EARLY FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THEN ONLY
LOWER TO 55 TO 75 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT...AND
THEN BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST BY
INDEPENDENCE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT BASIN
AVERAGES OF A QUARTER INCH OR MORE ARE LIKELY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAYBE NEEDED TOMORROW IF TRAINING
CONVECTION MATERIALIZES AGAIN.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION TOMORROW...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT /PRE/ WELL NORTH TO
NORTHEAST OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR COULD BRING A BAND OF STEADY TO
HEAVY RAINFALL /WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS/ ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IF THIS BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
OCCURS...THEN AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR AN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR TOMORROW.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS COULD EXCEED AN INCH ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE.
AT THE VERY LEAST...SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW TO ACTION STAGES. NO
RIVER POINTS ARE FORECAST TO FLOOD AT THIS TIME...URBAN FLOODING
AND SMALL STREAM AND CREEKS FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IF HIGHER
AMOUNTS OCCUR.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOWS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...VTK/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
500 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE THREAT OF POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING ENDING. A COLD
FRONT AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AGAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH LESS HUMID AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #384 CONTINUES FOR DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM EDT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF ERN NY EXCLUDING NRN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...AND ALL OF WRN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 04Z/THU...
AS OF 500 PM EDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELED FOR MOST OF THE AREA AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC. THE TWO
COUNTIES IT WILL REMAIN UP FOR IS DUTCHES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
SEE OUR LOCAL STORMS REPORT WITH ALL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DAMAGE AND FLOODING.
TRAINING CONVECTION CONTINUES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
ADDITIONAL FFW/S MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PWATS OF 1.5-2.0" AND SFC DEWPTS IN THE U60 TO L70S.
CONVECTION IS RIDING ALONG A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE...AND GOOD
UPPER JET DYNAMICS NEAR THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 80-90 KT JET
STREAK. FFA ISSUED UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA...EXCEPT
THE SRN DACKS.
SOME BOWING SEGMENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE OVER THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SW NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMN
REF SHOWS A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SLIGHT OR LOW
CHANCE POPS THEREAFTER.
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SFC DEWPTS STILL IN THE 60S
AND SPOTTY LOWER 70S WITH ONLY WEAK COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE
MTNS AND NRN TIER...AND MID 60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED AND ROUND 2 OF
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. CLOUDS MAY BECOME A GREATER ISSUE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED AGAIN WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITH POCKETS
GREATER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BASED ON
THE NAM/GFS. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40
KTS...WITH MULTICELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE AGAIN. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE A LIFTING MECHANISM...THOUGH ANOTHER PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...AND MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALSO FOCUS
THE CONVECTION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS
STILL IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S TO
L70S. FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO BE A THREAT AGAIN...AND ADDITIONAL
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME.
SOME OF THESE INGREDIENTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT
/PRE/ WELL IN ADVANCE OF ARTHUR...BUT PERHAPS TODAY WAS A PRE
TOO. WE BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A PRE IS FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR
AREA BASED ON THE CSTAR RESEARCH IN NJ AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...A STRIPE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB...AND OVER PART OF WRN NEW ENGLAND BASED
THE CANADIAN...RFC AND NAM GUIDANCE. TRAINING LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOO...SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING
AGAIN. IT IS INTERESTING BEST JET DYNAMICS ARE DISPLACED FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST OVER WRN-NRN NY WITH A JET STREAK OF 75-100 KTS.
SOME OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT REAR QUAD. POPS WERE
KEPT IN THE HIGH LIKELY RANGE TOMORROW...AND THE HEAVY RAIN WAS
EMPHASIZED IN THE GRIDS. WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE HWO FOR TOMORROW. WILL A
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOT AS WARM AS
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE HILLS
AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS.
TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT TOWARD THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BY DAYBREAK...THE RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS LINGERING
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. ARTHUR LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST OF AREA FOR LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. COLD
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST FROM NW TO SE WITH H850 TEMPS OF
+8C TO +11C FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST...AND +11C TO +14C TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE M50S TO L60S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
INDEPENDENCE DAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN EXTREME OF THE FCST
AREA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. THIS WILL HELP
STEER ARTHUR FURTHER EAST OF THE EAST COAST. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S WITH A BRISK W/NW WIND IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION NW OF
ARTHUR. THE GFS HAS THE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING WITH
H850 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO +8C TO +11C OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
INDEPENDENCE DAY/FRI NIGHT...BEAUTIFUL...LOW HUMIDITY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR ANY FESTIVITIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND MIDWEST WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER WX. LOWS WILL
MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME U40S OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN
DACKS.
FOR ALL THE OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INTERNET SITE
(WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV).
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A QUICK EXTENDED FORECAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE WPC GUIDANCE
WAS FOLLOWED VERY CLOSELY EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR CHANGES NOTED BELOW.
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IS EXPECTED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +13C RANGE ON SATURDAY WITH W/NW
WINDS AND DEWPTS IN THE U40S TO M50S. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WITH A COOL
EVENING...AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
SUNDAY SHOULD STILL FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE...AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE FOR THE CLOSING OF THE 4TH OF JULY
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH U70S
TO L80S OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA...WITH LOWER TO M70S OVER THE
MTNS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINS TO RETURN TO
THE FCST AREA WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AND DEWPOINTS RISING
BACK INTO THE 60S. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS S-CNTRL
ONTARIO INTO SW QUEBEC. A WARM FRONT MAY GRAZE THE NW ZONES WITH A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY MORNING. A SFC TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK HEATING.
LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID AND POSSIBLY
U80S IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS...AND WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH
WILL BE IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE IS VARIABLE...AND WE FOLLOWED WPC WITH THE FROPA LIKELY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE DID NOT GO WITH
LIKELY POPS YET ON TUE...AND WENT WITH CHC VALUES INSTEAD. SOME
INDICATIONS OF INCREASED AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH THE GFS...AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SO A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED FOR TUE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS LATE WED.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MVFR/IFR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POTENTIAL IFR FOG TONIGHT...AND A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE
VFR...HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GROUPS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO IFR CONDITIONS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES BEGINNING AT THE ONSET OF THE TAF PERIOD AND PERSISTING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KNOTS...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 03/02Z...THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 18Z-00Z.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THEIR WAKE...PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH A TRENDING OF WINDS
TOWARDS CALM...IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. IFR FOG SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR FLYING CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS MAY
REACH KPOU BY 15Z AND HAVE INDICATED A PROB30 GROUP THERE WITH AN
ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THE
SHOWERS WILL END EARLY FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THEN ONLY
LOWER TO 55 TO 75 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT...AND
THEN BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST BY
INDEPENDENCE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT BASIN
AVERAGES OF A QUARTER INCH OR MORE ARE LIKELY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.
A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL OR
MORE IN A SHORT TIME...ALTHOUGH AVERAGE RAINFALL BASIN AVERAGES
WILL GENERALLY BE CLOSER TO A HALF OF AN INCH.
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD MOVES TOWARD THE REGION TOMORROW...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT /PRE/ WELL NORTHEAST OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR COULD BRING A BAND OF STEADY TO HEAVY
RAINFALL /WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS/ ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IF THIS BAND OF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS...THEN
AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR AN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
TOMORROW.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS COULD EXCEED AN INCH ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE.
AT THE VERY LEAST...SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW TO ACTION STAGES. NO
RIVER POINTS ARE FORECAST TO FLOOD AT THIS TIME...URBAN FLOODING
AND SMALL STREAM AND CREEKS FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IF HIGHER
AMOUNTS OCCUR.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOWS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...VTK/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
426 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE THREAT OF POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING ENDING. A COLD
FRONT AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AGAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH LESS HUMID AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #384 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 7 PM EDT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF ERN NY EXCLUDING NRN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...AND ALL OF WRN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 04Z/THU...
AS OF 425 PM EDT...TRAINING CONVECTION CONTINUES ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. ADDITIONAL FFW/S MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PWATS OF 1.5-2.0" AND SFC
DEWPTS IN THE U60 TO L70S. CONVECTION IS RIDING ALONG A LOW LEVEL
THETA-E RIDGE...AND GOOD UPPER JET DYNAMICS NEAR THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF A 80-90 KT JET STREAK. FFA ISSUED UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR
ENTIRE FCST AREA...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS.
MAY BE ABLE TO DROP SOME OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
SOON...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS STARTING TO POP UP JUST NORTH
OF KBGM. WILL HOLD ONTO THE WATCH FOR A LITTLE LONGER. SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SW NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMN REF SHOWS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND SE CANADA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FORECAST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS
THEREAFTER.
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SFC DEWPTS STILL IN THE 60S
AND SPOTTY LOWER 70S WITH ONLY WEAK COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE
MTNS AND NRN TIER...AND MID 60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED AND ROUND 2 OF
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. CLOUDS MAY BECOME A GREATER ISSUE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED AGAIN WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITH POCKETS
GREATER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BASED ON
THE NAM/GFS. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40
KTS...WITH MULTICELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE AGAIN. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE A LIFTING MECHANISM...THOUGH ANOTHER PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...AND MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALSO FOCUS
THE CONVECTION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS
STILL IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S TO
L70S. FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO BE A THREAT AGAIN...AND ADDITIONAL
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME.
SOME OF THESE INGREDIENTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT
/PRE/ WELL IN ADVANCE OF ARTHUR...BUT PERHAPS TODAY WAS A PRE
TOO. WE BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A PRE IS FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR
AREA BASED ON THE CSTAR RESEARCH IN NJ AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...A STRIPE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB...AND OVER PART OF WRN NEW ENGLAND BASED
THE CANADIAN...RFC AND NAM GUIDANCE. TRAINING LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOO...SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING
AGAIN. IT IS INTERESTING BEST JET DYNAMICS ARE DISPLACED FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST OVER WRN-NRN NY WITH A JET STREAK OF 75-100 KTS.
SOME OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT REAR QUAD. POPS WERE
KEPT IN THE HIGH LIKELY RANGE TOMORROW...AND THE HEAVY RAIN WAS
EMPHASIZED IN THE GRIDS. WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE HWO FOR TOMORROW. WILL A
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOT AS WARM AS
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE HILLS
...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS.
TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT TOWARD THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BY DAYBREAK...THE RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS LINGERING
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. ARTHUR LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST OF AREA FOR LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. COLD
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST FROM NW TO SE WITH H850 TEMPS OF
+8C TO +11C FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST...AND +11C TO +14C TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE M50S TO L60S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
INDEPENDENCE DAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN EXTREME OF THE FCST
AREA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. THIS WILL HELP
STEER ARTHUR FURTHER EAST OF THE EAST COAST. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S WITH A BRISK W/NW WIND IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION NW OF
ARTHUR. THE GFS HAS THE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING WITH
H850 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO +8C TO +11C OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
INDEPENDENCE DAY/FRI NIGHT...BEAUTIFUL...LOW HUMIDITY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR ANY FESTIVITIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND MIDWEST WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER WX. LOWS WILL
MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME U40S OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN
DACKS.
FOR ALL THE OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INTERNET SITE
(WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV).
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A QUICK EXTENDED FORECAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE WPC GUIDANCE
WAS FOLLOWED VERY CLOSELY EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR CHANGES NOTED BELOW.
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IS EXPECTED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +13C RANGE ON SATURDAY WITH W/NW
WINDS AND DEWPTS IN THE U40S TO M50S. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WITH A COOL
EVENING...AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
SUNDAY SHOULD STILL FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE...AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE FOR THE CLOSING OF THE 4TH OF JULY
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH U70S
TO L80S OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA...WITH LOWER TO M70S OVER THE
MTNS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINS TO RETURN TO
THE FCST AREA WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AND DEWPOINTS RISING
BACK INTO THE 60S. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS S-CNTRL
ONTARIO INTO SW QUEBEC. A WARM FRONT MAY GRAZE THE NW ZONES WITH A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY MORNING. A SFC TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK HEATING.
LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID AND POSSIBLY
U80S IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS...AND WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH
WILL BE IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE IS VARIABLE...AND WE FOLLOWED WPC WITH THE FROPA LIKELY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE DID NOT GO WITH
LIKELY POPS YET ON TUE...AND WENT WITH CHC VALUES INSTEAD. SOME
INDICATIONS OF INCREASED AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH THE GFS...AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SO A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED FOR TUE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS LATE WED.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MVFR/IFR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POTENTIAL IFR FOG TONIGHT...AND A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE
VFR...HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GROUPS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO IFR CONDITIONS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES BEGINNING AT THE ONSET OF THE TAF PERIOD AND PERSISTING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KNOTS...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 03/02Z...THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 18Z-00Z.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THEIR WAKE...PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH A TRENDING OF WINDS
TOWARDS CALM...IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. IFR FOG SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR FLYING CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS MAY
REACH KPOU BY 15Z AND HAVE INDICATED A PROB30 GROUP THERE WITH AN
ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THE
SHOWERS WILL END EARLY FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THEN ONLY
LOWER TO 55 TO 75 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT...AND
THEN BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST BY
INDEPENDENCE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT BASIN
AVERAGES OF A QUARTER INCH OR MORE ARE LIKELY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.
A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL OR
MORE IN A SHORT TIME...ALTHOUGH AVERAGE RAINFALL BASIN AVERAGES
WILL GENERALLY BE CLOSER TO A HALF OF AN INCH.
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD MOVES TOWARD THE REGION TOMORROW...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT /PRE/ WELL NORTHEAST OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR COULD BRING A BAND OF STEADY TO HEAVY
RAINFALL /WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS/ ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IF THIS BAND OF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS...THEN
AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR AN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
TOMORROW.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS COULD EXCEED AN INCH ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE.
AT THE VERY LEAST...SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW TO ACTION STAGES. NO
RIVER POINTS ARE FORECAST TO FLOOD AT THIS TIME...URBAN FLOODING
AND SMALL STREAM AND CREEKS FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IF HIGHER
AMOUNTS OCCUR.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOWS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...VTK/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE
IT WILL REMAIN RATHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER HOT DAY ON TAP
WEDNESDAY WITH A BERMUDA HIGH IN CONTROL. THEN...A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORM LATER TODAY
INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD IN JUST TIN TIME
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...WHILE ONE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATED...ANOTHER LINE HAS FIRED OFF TO EAST OF LAKE ERIE. THESE
APPEARED TO BE SPARKED BY ANOTHER VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTED FROM
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH THAT WAS NEVERTHELESS ALL IT TOOK TO "BREAK THE
CAP" ONCE MORE...OF A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
MESOSCALE MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH LINE. THE LATEST
RUC13 INDICATED IT MIGHT HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE INTO OUR REGION
AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THE 03Z HRRR WEAKENS THE LINE BUT HOLDS IT
TOGETHER AS IT APPROACHES OUR NW AREAS BY 400 AM. UNFORTUNATELY THE
03Z VERSION WAS ONLY AVAILABLE UNTIL 400 AM.
WE WILL MONITOR IT BUT SO FAR...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY UPSTREAM OFFICES (NAMELY BUFFALO).
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT IT WILL BE DRY BUT MUGGY. ACTUALLY...HAD
TO LOWER A FEW TEMPERATURES...MAINLY AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION AS
OUTFLOW WITH THE LAST LINE OF STORMS HAS COOLED THE REGION DOWN A
LITTLE AND EVEN LOWERED DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE MID 60S. THIS SHOULD
BE TEMPORARY...IF ANYTHING DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY RISE A LITTLE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LINE AND TEMPERATURES MIGHT DROP MUCH MORE.
FOR THIS UPDATE...INCREASED POPS FROM ALBANY NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT
INTO THE CHANCE RANGE AND LOWERED SOME TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS PER
OBSERVATIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF
BOTH SEVERE POTENTIAL AND MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. SYNOPTIC
FORCING LOOKS TO BE STRONGER...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH OUR REGION
BRING IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG 250 HPA
JET MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ROBUST CONVECTION...WITH SBCAPE POTENTIALLY NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL 700-500 LAPSE RATES
FORECAST TO STEEPEN TO AT LEAST 6.5C/KM. THE GREATEST THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT WILL ALSO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO HIGH PWATS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE
OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HEAT
INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH 100 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. HEAT INDICES WILL BE
CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS...SO WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WED NIGHT 500HPA FLOW REMAINS FM OH VLY TO MAINE. THE REAL SFC
CDFNT IS STILL IN OTTAWA VLY TO CINCINNATI...AND NOT MOVING EAST
VERY QUICKLY. FURTHER EAST AT THE SFC THE BERMUDA HIGH WHILE WELL
OFFSHORE SHORE CONTINUES TO PUMP MUGGY AIR AHEAD OF CDFNT OVER THE
ENTIRE E SEABOARD. IN FCA TD ARE NR OR ABOVE 70F IN MOST AREAS.
WED AFTN`S CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVNG BUT WEAKEN WITH END
OF DIURNAL HEATING...SO OTHER THAN CHC -SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY EVNG FCA
WILL SETTLE IN FOR A VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. LOWS AROUND 70 IN
MOST AREAS.
THU/THU NT MODEL SUITE (GEM/GFS/NAM) IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT.
A STRONG 500HPA SHORT WV EJECTS FM OHIO VLY...INTO E GRTLKS
THU...AND ACROSS NW NY/OTTAWA VLY THU NT. IT WILL PUSH CDFNT INTO
FCA THU...AND SLOWLY SOUTH TO ALONG THE ATLC COAST 12UTC FRI.
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS...1000-2500 J/KG CAPE REMAIN OVER
FCA...AHEAD OF CDFNT. PWAT REMAINS NR 2.0 AHEAD OF CDFNT...SO
SHOULD GENERATE VERY HEALTHY IF SUB SEVERE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HVY DOWNPOURS. SPC HAS FCA ONLY IN SEE TEXT FOR
DAY THREE...MAINLY FAR SE WHICH LOOKS GOOD GIVEN CDFNT TIMING. THE
REST OF THE AREAS WILL SEE A HUMID CLOUDY DAY WITH FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD -SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY SE. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN SEE THE
80S IN MOST AREAS THU.
TEMPS AND TD WILL FINALLY START TRENDING DOWNWARD LATE THU NT
NW...AND OVER REST OF FCA FRI AS CDFNT PUSHES THRU ENTIRE AREA.
MINS THU NT WILL BE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
FRIDAY MORNING THE CDFNT IS ALONG THE ATLC COAST INTERACTING WITH
TC ARTHUR LOCATED NR CAPE HAT. ALL GUIDANCE...NHC TRACK BRING 500 HPA
TROF ACROSS NE FRI...AND EJECT TC FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP
MOST OF ITS IMPACTS OUT OF FCA...EXCEPT ENHANCING MOISTURE NR CDFNT
IN FAR SE FCA LATE THU NT AND FRI MORNING.
CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVER MOST AREA FRI MORNING W/MODELS SPEEDING THIS
UP OVER PREVIOUS RUNS. HWVR WITH TC OFFSHORE...CDFNT NOT TO FAR OFF
COAST...CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTN IN FAR SE ALONG WITH
THREAT OF -SHRA. BY DAYS END LARGE CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL HAVE
BUILT OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLC. MUCH LESS HUMID AND
COOLER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION BY EVENING...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A DRY...SEASONABLE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. FRI HIGHS WILL
BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HPC/GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT...FRI NT 500 HPA TROF
MOVES ACROSS RGN...AND IS THEN DEEPENED WELL OFFSHORE AS IT
INTERACTS WITH TC ARTHUR. LARGE SFC HI BUILDS IN ITS WAKE FM
MIDWEST INTO NORTHEAST SAT...SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND IS ABSORBED
INTO BERMUDA HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FCA WILL SEE A DRY SEASONABLE
4TH WEEKEND.
WAA INCRG OVER FCA SUN NT INTO MON. GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS INCRG CHC
TSTMS/SHRA W/WK WMFNT SUN NT OR MON. HPC KEEPS THIS THREAT AT BAY
TIL AT LEAST TUES WHEN IT SHOWS A CDFNT REACHING UPPER GRTLKS TO
UPPER OTTAWA VLY. GIVEN DIURNAL CYCLE...INCRG LLVL MOISTURE AND A
VARIETY OF LLVL BOUNDARIES AROUND...WILL MENTION AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS
MON AND TUES IN EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. OTRW WILL POPULATE WITH
HPC.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY CHALLENGING SET OF TAF/S THIS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION...SOME SUBSIDENCE HAS RESULTED IN PARTIAL
CLEARING SKIES. METARS DEWPOINT DEPRESSION REMAIN ABOVE SEVERAL
DEGREES WHICH IS LIMITING ANY FOG/MIST FORMATION. HOWEVER...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5KTS ALONG WITH THESE PARTIAL CLEAR
SKIES...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IFR CONDITIONS TO BE OBSERVED THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP AS
WATCH TRENDS UNFOLD. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE UPSTREAM ONGOING
CONVECTION. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE FOR THESE STORMS TO WEAKEN BEFORE
ANY TAF IMPACTS OVERNIGHT.
THOSE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL ONLY INCREASE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 GROUP BEGINNING AROUND
NOON /16Z/ AND CONTINUE THE PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AS FOR WINDS...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MAGNITUDES INCREASE TOWARD 10KTS DURING
WEDNESDAY DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE
VICINITY OF DEEPER CONVECTION.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY WARM...HUMID FLOW OF AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THURSDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION MIDWEEK...AND RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RESULT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL FALL TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...AND AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WEDNESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...AS
PWATS HOVER BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES. ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...RESULTING IN PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND MINOR FLOODING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1245 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE
IT WILL REMAIN RATHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER HOT DAY ON TAP
WEDNESDAY WITH A BERMUDA HIGH IN CONTROL. THEN...A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORM LATER TODAY
INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD IN JUST TIN TIME
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...WHILE ONE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATED...ANOTHER LINE HAS FIRED OFF TO EAST OF LAKE ERIE. THESE
APPEARED TO BE SPARKED BY ANOTHER VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTED FROM
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH THAT WAS NEVERTHELESS ALL IT TOOK TO "BREAK THE
CAP" ONCE MORE...OF A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
MESOSCALE MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH LINE. THE LATEST
RUC13 INDICATED IT MIGHT HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE INTO OUR REGION
AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THE 03Z HRRR WEAKENS THE LINE BUT HOLDS IT
TOGETHER AS IT APPROACHES OUR NW AREAS BY 400 AM. UNFORTUNATELY THE
03Z VERSION WAS ONLY AVAILABLE UNTIL 400 AM.
WE WILL MONITOR IT BUT SO FAR...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY UPSTREAM OFFICES (NAMELY BUFFALO).
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT IT WILL BE DRY BUT MUGGY. ACTUALLY...HAD
TO LOWER A FEW TEMPERATURES...MAINLY AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION AS
OUTFLOW WITH THE LAST LINE OF STORMS HAS COOLED THE REGION DOWN A
LITTLE AND EVEN LOWERED DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE MID 60S. THIS SHOULD
BE TEMPORARY...IF ANYTHING DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY RISE A LITTLE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LINE AND TEMPERATURES MIGHT DROP MUCH MORE.
FOR THIS UPDATE...INCREASED POPS FROM ALBANY NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT
INTO THE CHANCE RANGE AND LOWERED SOME TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS PER
OBSERVATIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF
BOTH SEVERE POTENTIAL AND MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. SYNOPTIC
FORCING LOOKS TO BE STRONGER...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH OUR REGION
BRING IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG 250 HPA
JET MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ROBUST CONVECTION...WITH SBCAPE POTENTIALLY NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL 700-500 LAPSE RATES
FORECAST TO STEEPEN TO AT LEAST 6.5C/KM. THE GREATEST THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT WILL ALSO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO HIGH PWATS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE
OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HEAT
INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH 100 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. HEAT INDICES WILL BE
CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS...SO WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WED NIGHT 500HPA FLOW REMAINS FM OH VLY TO MAINE. THE REAL SFC
CDFNT IS STILL IN OTTAWA VLY TO CINCINNATI...AND NOT MOVING EAST
VERY QUICKLY. FURTHER EAST AT THE SFC THE BERMUDA HIGH WHILE WELL
OFFSHORE SHORE CONTINUES TO PUMP MUGGY AIR AHEAD OF CDFNT OVER THE
ENTIRE E SEABOARD. IN FCA TD ARE NR OR ABOVE 70F IN MOST AREAS.
WED AFTN`S CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVNG BUT WEAKEN WITH END
OF DIURNAL HEATING...SO OTHER THAN CHC -SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY EVNG FCA
WILL SETTLE IN FOR A VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. LOWS AROUND 70 IN
MOST AREAS.
THU/THU NT MODEL SUITE (GEM/GFS/NAM) IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT.
A STRONG 500HPA SHORT WV EJECTS FM OHIO VLY...INTO E GRTLKS
THU...AND ACROSS NW NY/OTTAWA VLY THU NT. IT WILL PUSH CDFNT INTO
FCA THU...AND SLOWLY SOUTH TO ALONG THE ATLC COAST 12UTC FRI.
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS...1000-2500 J/KG CAPE REMAIN OVER
FCA...AHEAD OF CDFNT. PWAT REMAINS NR 2.0 AHEAD OF CDFNT...SO
SHOULD GENERATE VERY HEALTHY IF SUB SEVERE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HVY DOWNPOURS. SPC HAS FCA ONLY IN SEE TEXT FOR
DAY THREE...MAINLY FAR SE WHICH LOOKS GOOD GIVEN CDFNT TIMING. THE
REST OF THE AREAS WILL SEE A HUMID CLOUDY DAY WITH FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD -SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY SE. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN SEE THE
80S IN MOST AREAS THU.
TEMPS AND TD WILL FINALLY START TRENDING DOWNWARD LATE THU NT
NW...AND OVER REST OF FCA FRI AS CDFNT PUSHES THRU ENTIRE AREA.
MINS THU NT WILL BE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
FRIDAY MORNING THE CDFNT IS ALONG THE ATLC COAST INTERACTING WITH
TC ARTHUR LOCATED NR CAPE HAT. ALL GUIDANCE...NHC TRACK BRING 500 HPA
TROF ACROSS NE FRI...AND EJECT TC FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP
MOST OF ITS IMPACTS OUT OF FCA...EXCEPT ENHANCING MOISTURE NR CDFNT
IN FAR SE FCA LATE THU NT AND FRI MORNING.
CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVER MOST AREA FRI MORNING W/MODELS SPEEDING THIS
UP OVER PREVIOUS RUNS. HWVR WITH TC OFFSHORE...CDFNT NOT TO FAR OFF
COAST...CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTN IN FAR SE ALONG WITH
THREAT OF -SHRA. BY DAYS END LARGE CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL HAVE
BUILT OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLC. MUCH LESS HUMID AND
COOLER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION BY EVENING...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A DRY...SEASONABLE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. FRI HIGHS WILL
BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HPC/GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT...FRI NT 500 HPA TROF
MOVES ACROSS RGN...AND IS THEN DEEPENED WELL OFFSHORE AS IT
INTERACTS WITH TC ARTHUR. LARGE SFC HI BUILDS IN ITS WAKE FM
MIDWEST INTO NORTHEAST SAT...SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND IS ABSORBED
INTO BERMUDA HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FCA WILL SEE A DRY SEASONABLE
4TH WEEKEND.
WAA INCRG OVER FCA SUN NT INTO MON. GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS INCRG CHC
TSTMS/SHRA W/WK WMFNT SUN NT OR MON. HPC KEEPS THIS THREAT AT BAY
TIL AT LEAST TUES WHEN IT SHOWS A CDFNT REACHING UPPER GRTLKS TO
UPPER OTTAWA VLY. GIVEN DIURNAL CYCLE...INCRG LLVL MOISTURE AND A
VARIETY OF LLVL BOUNDARIES AROUND...WILL MENTION AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS
MON AND TUES IN EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. OTRW WILL POPULATE WITH
HPC.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INDICATING VCSH AT KGFL AND KALB THROUGH ABOUT 02Z-03Z BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. PUT A TEMPO FOR A THUNDERSTORM AT KGFL BETWEEN 00Z-
01Z WITH POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT. AFTER THE STORMS
TRACK THROUGH...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THEN...AFTER 03Z-06Z SOME MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND KPSF...BUT POSSIBLY AT KPOU AND
KALB AS WELL. AFTER 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS RETURN...BUT WILL HAVE TO
LOOK FOR TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. VERY UNCERTAIN ON HOW LATE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SO NOT
PUTTING IN TAFS YET.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10-12 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT
KALB/KPSF DURING THE EVENING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY AROUND 2-6 KT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW
TO NEAR 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY WARM...HUMID FLOW OF AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THURSDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION MIDWEEK...AND RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RESULT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL FALL TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...AND AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WEDNESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...AS
PWATS HOVER BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES. ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...RESULTING IN PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND MINOR FLOODING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
815 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.UPDATE...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS THIS EVENING
COMPRISED OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. THIS TROUGH IS SLOWLY PUSHING
TOWARD THE EAST COAST WILL ACT TO PICK UP AND ACCELERATE HURRICANE
ARTHUR TO THE NORTHEAST...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. OUR LOCAL REGION
LIES BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR WELL TO
OUR NORTHEAST...AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN FL
PENINSULA/FL STRAITS.
AT THE SURFACE...REGION RESIDES WITHIN LOW LEVEL SW FLOW BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND A SURFACE TROUGH
TRAILING BACK FROM THE CIRCULATION OF ARTHUR TO THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND/NE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL COMPLICATE OUR
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS IT BECOMES THE FOCUS OVERNIGHT
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA.
FOR NOW...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH THE CURRENT ROUND OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS EFFECTING MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE NATURE COAST. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THIS REGION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST NWP GUIDANCE. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE
A MAINLY DRY EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AWAY FROM THE FOCUS MECHANISMS AND
MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
LATER TONIGHT...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SHARPEN SOMEWHAT...WITH A GOOD
CONVERGENCE PATTERN DEVELOPING TO FOCUS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT-NMRS
SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS RENEWED
ACTIVITY SHOULD MIGRATE TOWARD THE COAST FROM MAINLY PINELLAS COUNTY
NORTHWARD. DO NOT WANT TO GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT
A WASHOUT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE 4TH OVER THESE ZONES...BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE LIKELY RANGE FOR AT LEAST A FEW BOUTS OF
PASSING SHOWERS. SIMILAR TO THE CONVECTION TODAY...THESE CELLS
SHOULD CARRY MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THEIR SHALLOW NATURE
AND WARM ATMOSPHERE CONTRIBUTING TO LESS CHARGE SEPARATION AND
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL.
&&
AVIATION...
A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
FROM SW TO NW ACROSS KPIE/KTPA/KLAL/KSRQ THIS EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH
CONTINUES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS...BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN REDEVELOP UP TOWARD KPIE/KTPA LATE AT
NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. MUCH OF FRIDAY LOOKS
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED FAST MOVING SHOWERS...MAINLY
NORTH OF KPGD...AND A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE SW WIND.
&&
MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE SATURDAY AS TS ARTHUR MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
THE RIDGE AXIS HOLDS TO OUR SOUTH. BY SUNDAY THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL BUILD NORTH WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS
4 FEET OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 91 79 91 / 50 40 10 40
FMY 77 93 78 92 / 10 30 10 40
GIF 76 93 77 92 / 40 50 20 50
SRQ 77 90 78 91 / 50 30 10 30
BKV 74 91 74 92 / 50 60 10 40
SPG 78 91 80 91 / 50 40 10 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
MARINE...PAXTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
853 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING TOUGH NEAR THE WESTERN END
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOTHING REALLY CATCHING THIS...AND THIS
CLUSTER IS MOSTLY BEING DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE AFFECTS. SO RAISED
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE FAR WEST THROUGH THE EVENING. LEFT THE
POPS ALONE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
BASED ON THUNDERSTORM BLOWOFF TO THE WEST AND WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE
SOME STRATUS ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT...INCREASED CLOUD COVER. NOT
SURE HOW FAR EAST CONVECTION WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WAS
TEMPTED TO PULL IT BACK FURTHER WEST. HOWEVER...THE HRRR FOR MOST
OF THIS SHIFT AND NOW THE RAP ARE HINTING AT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROWING OUT A RATHER
SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT GETS DRAPED OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW.
THIS COULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE CONVECTION.
SO CHOSE TO NOT DO ANYTHING WITH THE POPS DUE TO POSSIBLE
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES AND WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WATCH THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
GENERALLY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER AHEAD OF A 700MB SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WHERE DEW POINTS ARE ABOVE 60 DEGREES. AT THE SURFACE BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER...WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. FURTHER WEST A DRY LINE WAS
LOCATED WEST OF LIMON EXTENDING TO THE NORTH/SOUTH. AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE DRY LINE WILL MOVE TO JUST WEST OF THE KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES. MEANWHILE A WEAK 500MB TROUGH OVER
THE DRY LINE MAY SPARK SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING THE 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS SOME AND MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH PARCELS ABLE TO TAP INTO THE SURFACE BASED CAPE
INTO MID EVENING...DECIDED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 800MB DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF
THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTS HIGHER MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL OVERNIGHT OVER THE EAST 1/3 AS
THE 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ELEVATED CAPE AND THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS NEAR SUNRISE.
FRIDAY MORNING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE OVER THE EAST
1/3 AS ELEVATED CONVECTION LINGERS AHEAD OF THE 500MB SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE DRY LINE WEST OF THE AREA MOVES
EAST TO THE CO/KS LINE AS ANOTHER 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS TO BE STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND WITH THE ADDED HELP OF THE DRY LINE HAVE
A BIT HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON THAN FOR
TODAY. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE DRY
LINE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST BUT STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE DRY LINE
AND MOVES EAST INTO BETTER INSTABILITY. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON SINCE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE
20-25KTS...DECLINING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STORM COVERAGE
INCREASES.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID MORNING...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY EAST OF HWY 25.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS A WARMER
AIR MASS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOME FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN REBUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN EASTERN COLORADO
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY.
VERY WARM H7 TEMPERATURES FROM 14 TO 16 C ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FA FRIDAY EVENING WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD FORM ON THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST WITH 0-6KM WINDS AT 5 TO 10KTS. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FA, IT IS UNCERTAIN
THAT STORMS WOULD MAKE IT THAT FAR. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR THIS SCENARIO.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVEN WARMER H7 TEMPERATURES SPREAD ACROSS THE
FA.ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE. POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THESE PERIODS.
850MB TEMPERATURES AT 32 WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR 100
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW WILL BRING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN COLORADO SHOULD STAY EAST OF
BOTH SITES. THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR KMCK AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER DUE TO SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY DEVELOPMENT
MAKES IT TOO HARD TO PINPOINT ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT KMCK SO LEFT
THEM OUT AT THIS TIME. POSSIBLE THAT SOME STRATUS MAY DEVELOP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO EXACTLY WHERE. AT
THIS TIME CHOSE TO MENTION A SCATTERED LOW DECK NEAR KMCK. WILL
FINE TUNE BY NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. GUSTY WINDS WILL DECREASE BY LATE
THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN DURING THE MID AND LATE
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
141 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
COLD FRONT SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE WITH ENHANCED CUMULUS FIELD FROM
NW OH AND WESTERN KY. FRONT ALSO APPARENT ON SURFACE DEWPOINT AND
WIND FIELD ANALYSIS. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM HWO. UPDATED GRIDS FOR
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND SENT TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
DIFFUSE FRONTAL OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS JUST TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THIS SHOWS UP IN SURFACE DEWPOINT AND
WIND ANALYSIS. A SECONDARY FRONT WHICH IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINT AIR IS FROM NW OHIO TO NW AR AND JUST ENTERING
INTO FAR WESTERN KY. THIS BOUNDARY IS ALSO APPARENT ON SURFACE WIND
AND DEWPOINT ANALYSIS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THESE FEATURES WILL
TEND TO SERVE AS FOCUS AREAS FOR CONVECTION...AND THIS IDEA IS
DEPICTED IN THE LATEST HRRR. WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REMOVED RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL NOT PASS TO OUR EAST UNTIL
TONIGHT SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
TONIGHT PERIOD. HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
AFTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT...RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW A CLEAR SCOPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AM STILL A
BIT CONCERNED AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA. GIVEN THE DECENT RELIABILITY
OF THE HRRR OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AM STILL A BIT CONCERNED
THAT LATEST RUNS ARE SHOWING NO POPS OVER KY...NOR IS THE NAM12. WILL
KEEP WITH OFFICIAL POPS FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE HOW THIS
SYSTEM ENDS UP PANNING OUT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON
TRACK. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND
WINDS TO MAKE SURE THAT CURRENT FORECAST IS ON PAR WITH ONGOING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
PRECIPITATION JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...NOW PARKED JUST TO
OUR NW...DIED DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN KY EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS LACK OF GOOD FORCING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD STILL
DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...SO CHOSE
TO LEAVE IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. BY THIS MORNING...INCREASING
TEMPS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO POP UP ONCE MORE. DO HAVE A FEW CONCERNS
HOWEVER. FIRST IS THE GENERAL DIRECTIONAL FLOW. THERE IS HIGH WATER
CONTENT...BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH VERY LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME DECENT SPEED SHEAR...SO
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO HAVE A DECENT
RATE OF SPEED...DROP SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND MAYBE A
FEW GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL AS THEY QUICKLY PULSE DOWN.
THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE MODEL AGREEMENT FOR POPS...AND ALSO HOW
THEY LINE UP WITH THE CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BASED ON THE LATEST FRONTAL ANALYSIS...THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN KY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.
WRLY WINDS...INCLUDING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WILL BEGIN PULLING IN
EVEN DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA BY 18Z BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THAT BEING SAID...BOTH THE NAM12 AND HRRR HAVE HARDLY ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS KY...AND WHAT DOES WILL BE EAST OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL QPF TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT...BUT MUCH LIGHTER IN NATURE. ACCORDING TO THIS
SOLUTION THE BEST CONVECTION WILL STILL BE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND
PIN POINTED OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF FAR EASTERN KY. THE GFS IS THE
OUTLIER AND PUTS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AND EVEN
INTO CENTRAL KY...INCLUDING AREAS THAT ARE POST FRONTAL. WITH ALL OF
THIS IN MIND...WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND AND THEN DID SOME EDITING TO
GEAR MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF THINKING...WITH SCATTERED POPS POSSIBLE
OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION POST FRONTAL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF.
POPS WILL CONTINUE TO DIE DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE STATE AND THEN BECOMES STALLED
OUT ONCE MORE. KEPT MENTION OF POPS IN FAR EASTERN KY THROUGH THURS
MORNING AS A RESULT OF THIS DELAYED MOVEMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S...WITH THE COOLEST AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA CORRESPONDING
WITH EXPECTED LATE NIGHT CLEARING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH GENERAL FLOW PULLING IN FROM THE NW...ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
THE MODELS ARE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN
ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL
TRANSLATE A SEASONABLY DEEP GREAT LAKES TROUGH EAST INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES AS IT FILLS. IN THE PROCESS...IT MANAGES TO PICK UP
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR CURRENTLY RATED AS A TROPICAL STORM BUT
FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST A STRONG CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST AND MOST REASONABLE WITH THIS
INTERACTION AND LIKEWISE SLOWS THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY. NEVERTHELESS...EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE SPARED ANY
MOISTURE OR PCPN FROM THIS AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. RISING HEIGHTS DURING THIS PROCESS WILL KEEP THE
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM CAUSING ANY TROUBLE FOR OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL FLATTEN
AND KENTUCKY WILL BE AT THE MERCY OF WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...AND BEYOND. ONE OF
THESE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LOWER HEIGHTS LOCALLY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY HEADS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ANOTHER WAVE FOLLOWS IN THE WEAK FLOW FOR LATER
TUESDAY AND SHOULD HELP TRIGGER MORE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST. AFTER FAVORING THE ECMWF
INITIALLY...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD A MODEL BLEND FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A MUCH WELCOMED AREA OF COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS HIGH BRINGS TEMPERATURES A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
FROM THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS QUICKLY SETS THE STAGE FOR A
RETURN OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES PEAK TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ALONG WITH THE STORM CHANCES...THE HEAT
WILL RETURN WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
DURING THE NEW WORK WEEK.
THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS EACH AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY TO
TUESDAY TO REFLECT THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. ALSO...
TWEAKED THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIDGE
TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NW OH TO FAR WESTERN KY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL NOT PUT ANY
THUNDER IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1022 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
DIFFUSE FRONTAL OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS JUST TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THIS SHOWS UP IN SURFACE DEWPOINT AND
WIND ANALYSIS. A SECONDARY FRONT WHICH IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINT AIR IS FROM NW OHIO TO NW AR AND JUST ENTERING
INTO FAR WESTERN KY. THIS BOUNDARY IS ALSO APPARENT ON SURFACE WIND
AND DEWPOINT ANALYSIS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THESE FEATURES WILL
TEND TO SERVE AS FOCUS AREAS FOR CONVECTION...AND THIS IDEA IS
DEPICTED IN THE LATEST HRRR. WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REMOVED RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL NOT PASS TO OUR EAST UNTIL
TONIGHT SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
TONIGHT PERIOD. HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
AFTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT...RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW A CLEAR SCOPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AM STILL A
BIT CONCERNED AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA. GIVEN THE DECENT RELIABILITY
OF THE HRRR OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AM STILL A BIT CONCERNED
THAT LATEST RUNS ARE SHOWING NO POPS OVER KY...NOR IS THE NAM12. WILL
KEEP WITH OFFICIAL POPS FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE HOW THIS
SYSTEM ENDS UP PANNING OUT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON
TRACK. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND
WINDS TO MAKE SURE THAT CURRENT FORECAST IS ON PAR WITH ONGOING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
PRECIPITATION JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...NOW PARKED JUST TO
OUR NW...DIED DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN KY EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS LACK OF GOOD FORCING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD STILL
DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...SO CHOSE
TO LEAVE IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. BY THIS MORNING...INCREASING
TEMPS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO POP UP ONCE MORE. DO HAVE A FEW CONCERNS
HOWEVER. FIRST IS THE GENERAL DIRECTIONAL FLOW. THERE IS HIGH WATER
CONTENT...BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH VERY LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME DECENT SPEED SHEAR...SO
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO HAVE A DECENT
RATE OF SPEED...DROP SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND MAYBE A
FEW GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL AS THEY QUICKLY PULSE DOWN.
THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE MODEL AGREEMENT FOR POPS...AND ALSO HOW
THEY LINE UP WITH THE CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BASED ON THE LATEST FRONTAL ANALYSIS...THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN KY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.
WRLY WINDS...INCLUDING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WILL BEGIN PULLING IN
EVEN DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA BY 18Z BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THAT BEING SAID...BOTH THE NAM12 AND HRRR HAVE HARDLY ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS KY...AND WHAT DOES WILL BE EAST OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL QPF TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT...BUT MUCH LIGHTER IN NATURE. ACCORDING TO THIS
SOLUTION THE BEST CONVECTION WILL STILL BE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND
PIN POINTED OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF FAR EASTERN KY. THE GFS IS THE
OUTLIER AND PUTS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AND EVEN
INTO CENTRAL KY...INCLUDING AREAS THAT ARE POST FRONTAL. WITH ALL OF
THIS IN MIND...WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND AND THEN DID SOME EDITING TO
GEAR MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF THINKING...WITH SCATTERED POPS POSSIBLE
OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION POST FRONTAL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF.
POPS WILL CONTINUE TO DIE DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE STATE AND THEN BECOMES STALLED
OUT ONCE MORE. KEPT MENTION OF POPS IN FAR EASTERN KY THROUGH THURS
MORNING AS A RESULT OF THIS DELAYED MOVEMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S...WITH THE COOLEST AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA CORRESPONDING
WITH EXPECTED LATE NIGHT CLEARING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH GENERAL FLOW PULLING IN FROM THE NW...ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
THE MODELS ARE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN
ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL
TRANSLATE A SEASONABLY DEEP GREAT LAKES TROUGH EAST INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES AS IT FILLS. IN THE PROCESS...IT MANAGES TO PICK UP
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR CURRENTLY RATED AS A TROPICAL STORM BUT
FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST A STRONG CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST AND MOST REASONABLE WITH THIS
INTERACTION AND LIKEWISE SLOWS THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY. NEVERTHELESS...EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE SPARED ANY
MOISTURE OR PCPN FROM THIS AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. RISING HEIGHTS DURING THIS PROCESS WILL KEEP THE
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM CAUSING ANY TROUBLE FOR OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL FLATTEN
AND KENTUCKY WILL BE AT THE MERCY OF WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...AND BEYOND. ONE OF
THESE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LOWER HEIGHTS LOCALLY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY HEADS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ANOTHER WAVE FOLLOWS IN THE WEAK FLOW FOR LATER
TUESDAY AND SHOULD HELP TRIGGER MORE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST. AFTER FAVORING THE ECMWF
INITIALLY...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD A MODEL BLEND FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A MUCH WELCOMED AREA OF COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS HIGH BRINGS TEMPERATURES A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
FROM THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS QUICKLY SETS THE STAGE FOR A
RETURN OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES PEAK TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ALONG WITH THE STORM CHANCES...THE HEAT
WILL RETURN WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
DURING THE NEW WORK WEEK.
THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS EACH AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY TO
TUESDAY TO REFLECT THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. ALSO...
TWEAKED THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIDGE
TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
A COLD FRONT PARKED JUST TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS TREK EASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN KY DURING THE DAY TODAY. AS SUCH...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE WEST...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED MAINLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT KSME AND KLOZ WILL
ACTUALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION...OR IF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP.
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCTS...BUT HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE FOR THESE TWO
SITES COMPARED TO KJKL AND KSJS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND.
THIS COULD PUT KLOZ AND KSME IN THE POSITION TO POSSIBLY SEE CLEARING
LATE AND THEN SUBSEQUENTLY SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS STILL RATHER LOW UNTIL THE WE SEE WHAT THE DAYTIME WEATHER
BRINGS...SO CHOSE TO LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
711 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
AFTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT...RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW A CLEAR SCOPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AM STILL A
BIT CONCERNED AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA. GIVEN THE DECENT RELIABILITY
OF THE HRRR OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AM STILL A BIT CONCERNED
THAT LATEST RUNS ARE SHOWING NO POPS OVER KY...NOR IS THE NAM12. WILL
KEEP WITH OFFICIAL POPS FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE HOW THIS
SYSTEM ENDS UP PANNING OUT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON
TRACK. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND
WINDS TO MAKE SURE THAT CURRENT FORECAST IS ON PAR WITH ONGOING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
PRECIPITATION JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...NOW PARKED JUST TO
OUR NW...DIED DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN KY EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS LACK OF GOOD FORCING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD STILL
DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...SO CHOSE
TO LEAVE IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. BY THIS MORNING...INCREASING
TEMPS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO POP UP ONCE MORE. DO HAVE A FEW CONCERNS
HOWEVER. FIRST IS THE GENERAL DIRECTIONAL FLOW. THERE IS HIGH WATER
CONTENT...BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH VERY LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME DECENT SPEED SHEAR...SO
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO HAVE A DECENT
RATE OF SPEED...DROP SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND MAYBE A
FEW GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL AS THEY QUICKLY PULSE DOWN.
THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE MODEL AGREEMENT FOR POPS...AND ALSO HOW
THEY LINE UP WITH THE CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BASED ON THE LATEST FRONTAL ANALYSIS...THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN KY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.
WRLY WINDS...INCLUDING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WILL BEGIN PULLING IN
EVEN DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA BY 18Z BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THAT BEING SAID...BOTH THE NAM12 AND HRRR HAVE HARDLY ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS KY...AND WHAT DOES WILL BE EAST OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL QPF TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT...BUT MUCH LIGHTER IN NATURE. ACCORDING TO THIS
SOLUTION THE BEST CONVECTION WILL STILL BE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND
PIN POINTED OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF FAR EASTERN KY. THE GFS IS THE
OUTLIER AND PUTS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AND EVEN
INTO CENTRAL KY...INCLUDING AREAS THAT ARE POST FRONTAL. WITH ALL OF
THIS IN MIND...WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND AND THEN DID SOME EDITING TO
GEAR MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF THINKING...WITH SCATTERED POPS POSSIBLE
OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION POST FRONTAL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF.
POPS WILL CONTINUE TO DIE DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE STATE AND THEN BECOMES STALLED
OUT ONCE MORE. KEPT MENTION OF POPS IN FAR EASTERN KY THROUGH THURS
MORNING AS A RESULT OF THIS DELAYED MOVEMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S...WITH THE COOLEST AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA CORRESPONDING
WITH EXPECTED LATE NIGHT CLEARING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH GENERAL FLOW PULLING IN FROM THE NW...ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
THE MODELS ARE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN
ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL
TRANSLATE A SEASONABLY DEEP GREAT LAKES TROUGH EAST INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES AS IT FILLS. IN THE PROCESS...IT MANAGES TO PICK UP
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR CURRENTLY RATED AS A TROPICAL STORM BUT
FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST A STRONG CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST AND MOST REASONABLE WITH THIS
INTERACTION AND LIKEWISE SLOWS THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY. NEVERTHELESS...EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE SPARED ANY
MOISTURE OR PCPN FROM THIS AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. RISING HEIGHTS DURING THIS PROCESS WILL KEEP THE
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM CAUSING ANY TROUBLE FOR OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL FLATTEN
AND KENTUCKY WILL BE AT THE MERCY OF WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...AND BEYOND. ONE OF
THESE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LOWER HEIGHTS LOCALLY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY HEADS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ANOTHER WAVE FOLLOWS IN THE WEAK FLOW FOR LATER
TUESDAY AND SHOULD HELP TRIGGER MORE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST. AFTER FAVORING THE ECMWF
INITIALLY...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD A MODEL BLEND FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A MUCH WELCOMED AREA OF COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS HIGH BRINGS TEMPERATURES A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
FROM THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS QUICKLY SETS THE STAGE FOR A
RETURN OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES PEAK TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ALONG WITH THE STORM CHANCES...THE HEAT
WILL RETURN WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
DURING THE NEW WORK WEEK.
THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS EACH AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY TO
TUESDAY TO REFLECT THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. ALSO...
TWEAKED THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIDGE
TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
A COLD FRONT PARKED JUST TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS TREK EASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN KY DURING THE DAY TODAY. AS SUCH...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE WEST...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED MAINLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT KSME AND KLOZ WILL
ACTUALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION...OR IF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP.
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCTS...BUT HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE FOR THESE TWO
SITES COMPARED TO KJKL AND KSJS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND.
THIS COULD PUT KLOZ AND KSME IN THE POSITION TO POSSIBLY SEE CLEARING
LATE AND THEN SUBSEQUENTLY SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS STILL RATHER LOW UNTIL THE WE SEE WHAT THE DAYTIME WEATHER
BRINGS...SO CHOSE TO LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
PRECIPITATION JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...NOW PARKED JUST TO
OUR NW...DIED DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN KY EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS LACK OF GOOD FORCING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD STILL
DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...SO CHOSE
TO LEAVE IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. BY THIS MORNING...INCREASING
TEMPS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO POP UP ONCE MORE. DO HAVE A FEW CONCERNS
HOWEVER. FIRST IS THE GENERAL DIRECTIONAL FLOW. THERE IS HIGH WATER
CONTENT...BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH VERY LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME DECENT SPEED SHEAR...SO
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO HAVE A DECENT
RATE OF SPEED...DROP SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND MAYBE A
FEW GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL AS THEY QUICKLY PULSE DOWN.
THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE MODEL AGREEMENT FOR POPS...AND ALSO HOW
THEY LINE UP WITH THE CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BASED ON THE LATEST FRONTAL ANALYSIS...THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN KY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.
WRLY WINDS...INCLUDING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WILL BEGIN PULLING IN
EVEN DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA BY 18Z BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THAT BEING SAID...BOTH THE NAM12 AND HRRR HAVE HARDLY ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS KY...AND WHAT DOES WILL BE EAST OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL QPF TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT...BUT MUCH LIGHTER IN NATURE. ACCORDING TO THIS
SOLUTION THE BEST CONVECTION WILL STILL BE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND
PIN POINTED OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF FAR EASTERN KY. THE GFS IS THE
OUTLIER AND PUTS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AND EVEN
INTO CENTRAL KY...INCLUDING AREAS THAT ARE POST FRONTAL. WITH ALL OF
THIS IN MIND...WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND AND THEN DID SOME EDITING TO
GEAR MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF THINKING...WITH SCATTERED POPS POSSIBLE
OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION POST FRONTAL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF.
POPS WILL CONTINUE TO DIE DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE STATE AND THEN BECOMES STALLED
OUT ONCE MORE. KEPT MENTION OF POPS IN FAR EASTERN KY THROUGH THURS
MORNING AS A RESULT OF THIS DELAYED MOVEMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S...WITH THE COOLEST AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA CORRESPONDING
WITH EXPECTED LATE NIGHT CLEARING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH GENERAL FLOW PULLING IN FROM THE NW...ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
THE MODELS ARE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN
ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL
TRANSLATE A SEASONABLY DEEP GREAT LAKES TROUGH EAST INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES AS IT FILLS. IN THE PROCESS...IT MANAGES TO PICK UP
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR CURRENTLY RATED AS A TROPICAL STORM BUT
FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST A STRONG CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST AND MOST REASONABLE WITH THIS
INTERACTION AND LIKEWISE SLOWS THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY. NEVERTHELESS...EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE SPARED ANY
MOISTURE OR PCPN FROM THIS AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. RISING HEIGHTS DURING THIS PROCESS WILL KEEP THE
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM CAUSING ANY TROUBLE FOR OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL FLATTEN
AND KENTUCKY WILL BE AT THE MERCY OF WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...AND BEYOND. ONE OF
THESE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LOWER HEIGHTS LOCALLY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY HEADS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ANOTHER WAVE FOLLOWS IN THE WEAK FLOW FOR LATER
TUESDAY AND SHOULD HELP TRIGGER MORE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST. AFTER FAVORING THE ECMWF
INITIALLY...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD A MODEL BLEND FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A MUCH WELCOMED AREA OF COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS HIGH BRINGS TEMPERATURES A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
FROM THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS QUICKLY SETS THE STAGE FOR A
RETURN OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES PEAK TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ALONG WITH THE STORM CHANCES...THE HEAT
WILL RETURN WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
DURING THE NEW WORK WEEK.
THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS EACH AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY TO
TUESDAY TO REFLECT THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. ALSO...
TWEAKED THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIDGE
TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MAKING THEIR WAY
ACROSS EASTERN KY...BUT HAVE WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY.
KSME AND KLOZ SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR FROM ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...MINUS A FEW STRAY SPRINKLES THAT MAY MOVE INTO
THE REGION. KJKL AND KSJS SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR OVER THE NEXT HALF
HOUR. WHILE SOME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER TO KEEP THE ONLY FOG ACROSS THE REGION CONFINED
TO THE DEEPEST VALLEYS AND IN THE FORM OF SHORT LIVED STEAM FOG.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN
KY JUST AHEAD OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION
OF STORMS IS STILL UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME...BUT DO EXPECT THEM TO DIE
DOWN BY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A DRIER AIRMASS
MOVING INTO PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
156 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
AS WAS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS CONTINUING A DIMINISHING TREND AS THEY TREK ACROSS
THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID...THEY ARE MOVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY OUTLINED IN THE POP GRIDS. UPDATED TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT TIMING AND COVERAGE TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ALSO UPDATED THE SKY COVER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS INTO THE ONGOING FORECAST TO MAKE SURE TEMPS...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS JIVED WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1111 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AS EVIDENCED
BY THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS ON THE IR SATELLITE AS WELL AS THE RADAR
TRENDS. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS AND SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY NORTH OF I-64 AND A QUICK DOWNWARD TREND
FURTHER SOUTHEAST. UPDATES ARE OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OHIO DOWN THROUGH NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE OUT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND SOME MID-LEVEL FORCING MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND TO THIS
LINE IN THE PAST HOUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK...WHERE
SHEAR AND FORCING ARE WEAKER. THERE ARE STILL SOME EMBEDDED STRONGER
CELLS FROM DAY TO SDF. THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF HRRR RUNS CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN THIS LINE AS IT HEADS EAST...REACHING OUR BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES IN THE 02 TO 03Z TIME FRAME. HAVE INCREASED POPS NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY BASED ON THE RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AND MAINTAINED A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH...WHERE STORMS WILL LIKELY FALL APART BEFORE
REACHING THESE AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A STRONG CAP HAS KEPT CONVECTION AT BAY DESPITE INCREASING
INSTABILITY WITH LI/S DOWN TO -8 TO -10 AND CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000
J/KG. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ACROSS THE OH RIVER FROM EVV TO
SDF THIS AFTERNOON FAILED TO INITIATE CONVECTION...EVIDENCE OF THE
CAP. IT APPEARS THE CAP WILL ERODE FIRST OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT HOLD ON IN THE SOUTH INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM AND HRRR HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB
BY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OH VALLEY TODAY. AS SUCH
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HRRR FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR EARLY
TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THE HRRR IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL FINALLY
INITIATE TO OUR WEST AND NW THIS EVENING AS REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER MO AND KS MOVES EAST. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE ENE TONIGHT...WITH THE NW PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE RANGE IN THE NW FOR TONIGHT WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH REMAINS OVER IN AND OH THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
PASSES. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER COULD HOLD
ON AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WE SHOULD BE DONE WITH PRECIPITATION
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SOME COOL
NIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
WEAK. BY MONDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY CREEP NORTH WHICH COULD
PROVIDE FUEL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT AGAIN...MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A BETTER CHANCE OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH MONDAY. BETTER
SHOT OF A SHOWER POPPING UP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT EVEN
THEN...CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
BY MONDAY AS AIR MASS MODERATES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MAKING THEIR WAY
ACROSS EASTERN KY...BUT HAVE WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY.
KSME AND KLOZ SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR FROM ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...MINUS A FEW STRAY SPRINKLES THAT MAY MOVE INTO
THE REGION. KJKL AND KSJS SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR OVER THE NEXT HALF
HOUR. WHILE SOME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER TO KEEP THE ONLY FOG ACROSS THE REGION CONFINED
TO THE DEEPEST VALLEYS AND IN THE FORM OF SHORT LIVED STEAM FOG.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN
KY JUST AHEAD OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION
OF STORMS IS STILL UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME...BUT DO EXPECT THEM TO DIE
DOWN BY EVENING WITH LOS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A DRIER AIRMASS
MOVING INTO PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1231 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
AS WAS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS CONTINUING A DIMINISHING TREND AS THEY TREK ACROSS
THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID...THEY ARE MOVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY OUTLINED IN THE POP GRIDS. UPDATED TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT TIMING AND COVERAGE TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ALSO UPDATED THE SKY COVER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS INTO THE ONGOING FORECAST TO MAKE SURE TEMPS...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS JIVED WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1111 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AS EVIDENCED
BY THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS ON THE IR SATELLITE AS WELL AS THE RADAR
TRENDS. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS AND SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY NORTH OF I-64 AND A QUICK DOWNWARD TREND
FURTHER SOUTHEAST. UPDATES ARE OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OHIO DOWN THROUGH NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE OUT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND SOME MID-LEVEL FORCING MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND TO THIS
LINE IN THE PAST HOUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK...WHERE
SHEAR AND FORCING ARE WEAKER. THERE ARE STILL SOME EMBEDDED STRONGER
CELLS FROM DAY TO SDF. THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF HRRR RUNS CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN THIS LINE AS IT HEADS EAST...REACHING OUR BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES IN THE 02 TO 03Z TIME FRAME. HAVE INCREASED POPS NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY BASED ON THE RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AND MAINTAINED A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH...WHERE STORMS WILL LIKELY FALL APART BEFORE
REACHING THESE AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A STRONG CAP HAS KEPT CONVECTION AT BAY DESPITE INCREASING
INSTABILITY WITH LI/S DOWN TO -8 TO -10 AND CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000
J/KG. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ACROSS THE OH RIVER FROM EVV TO
SDF THIS AFTERNOON FAILED TO INITIATE CONVECTION...EVIDENCE OF THE
CAP. IT APPEARS THE CAP WILL ERODE FIRST OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT HOLD ON IN THE SOUTH INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM AND HRRR HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB
BY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OH VALLEY TODAY. AS SUCH
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HRRR FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR EARLY
TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THE HRRR IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL FINALLY
INITIATE TO OUR WEST AND NW THIS EVENING AS REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER MO AND KS MOVES EAST. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE ENE TONIGHT...WITH THE NW PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE RANGE IN THE NW FOR TONIGHT WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH REMAINS OVER IN AND OH THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
PASSES. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER COULD HOLD
ON AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WE SHOULD BE DONE WITH PRECIPITATION
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SOME COOL
NIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
WEAK. BY MONDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY CREEP NORTH WHICH COULD
PROVIDE FUEL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT AGAIN...MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A BETTER CHANCE OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH MONDAY. BETTER
SHOT OF A SHOWER POPPING UP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT EVEN
THEN...CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
BY MONDAY AS AIR MASS MODERATES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND LOOK TO REACH THOSE LOCATIONS BETWEEN 02 AND
03Z. ANY STORMS WILL BRING TEMPORARY MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES...WHERE
STORM CHANCES ARE LOWER. THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF MVFR FOG
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z DEPENDING ON CLEARING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A THREAT OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
354 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387 CONTINUES OVER MANY OF OUR LA
PARISHES SOUTH OF I-20...ALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MORNING/S
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW STRETCHING FROM TOLEDO BEND TO
JONESBORO AND NEAR MONROE. PROGRESSION OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
GOOD TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UPDATES WILL LIKELY TRIM MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE WATCH BEFORE 9PM. SO FAR...SOME GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING...BUT WITH 90 PLUS HEAT IN PROGRESS FOR A
WHILE...ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA. TO
NOTE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG THE COOL
FRONT OVER CENTRAL AR.
AT THIS TIME...LIGHT NW FLOW IS IN THE LOWER LEVELS THERE OVER
AR...BUT THE MODELS AND OUR FORECAST ARE INDICATING A BACKDOOR
PUSH TOWARD SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT. SO...THERE IS SOME GLIMMER OF
HOPE WITH A CONVECTIVE ASSIST FOR OTHER AREAS THAT WERE SKIPPED
OVER DURING THE LATE MORNING AS THE OUTFLOW PASSED BY UNEVENTFUL.
HOWEVER...NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS OFTEN HAVE THERE OWN GAME IN
MIND WITH ONLY THE HRRR CLOSE IN INITIALIZING THIS NEW AR
ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...LITTLE SUPPORT ELSEWHERE AMONGST
THE GUIDANCE QPF.
THE UPPER LEVELS MAY ASSIST AS WELL WITH ANOTHER VORT DIVING INTO
THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA
OF NB/IA/KN/MO. THE TAIL OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO PLAY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT FOR
ANYTHING THAT MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET. A LARGE RIDGE IS SWINGING
IN BEHIND THAT FEATURE AND USUALLY MEANS DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A GOOD DEVELOPING...MOIST UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A PRETTY GOOD SEA BREEZE IS PUSHING IN OVER
THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND UNDER THIS UPPER LOW. SO LOTS TO KEEP UP
WITH AND HOPEFULLY FOR THE 00Z RUN TO INITIALIZE WITH AND PUT A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE INDEPENDENCE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR NOW A
DRYING TREND AND COOLER TOO...MAV/MEX IS BLENDED AND POINTS TO SOME
VERY NICE JULY MORNING/S. HIGHS TOO WILL BE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE
FOR A COUPLE TO FEW DAYS IN THE WAKE OF OUR COOL FRONT. /24/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
AVIATION...
MCS ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY
MID LVL CLOUDS...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE KTXK..KELD...KSHV...AND KMLU TERMINAL AREAS BEFORE
03/00Z. AFTN CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE AT THESE SITE.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES THRU MOST OF PERIOD. COOL
FRONT TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF AREA WITH DRIER AIRMASS. HOWEVER..
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT KLFK PRIOR TO FROPA LATE TONIGHT. /VII/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 91 67 90 67 / 30 30 20 10 10
MLU 70 89 64 88 64 / 50 20 10 10 10
DEQ 63 88 62 88 63 / 30 20 10 10 10
TXK 68 87 65 88 65 / 30 20 10 10 10
ELD 68 88 62 88 62 / 30 20 10 10 10
TYR 75 91 71 90 70 / 30 40 20 20 10
GGG 72 91 68 89 67 / 30 30 20 10 10
LFK 74 93 72 90 68 / 30 40 20 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1224 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.AVIATION...
MCS ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY
MID LVL CLOUDS...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE KTXK..KELD...KSHV...AND KMLU TERMINAL AREAS BEFORE
03/00Z. AFTN CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE AT THESE SITE.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES THRU MOST OF PERIOD. COOL
FRONT TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF AREA WITH DRIER AIRMASS. HOWEVER..
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT KLFK PRIOR TO FROPA LATE TONIGHT. /VII/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WELL SO MUCH POTENTIAL GOING BY THE WAY SIDE WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA NOW FROM OIL CITY TO ROCKY
MOUNT. A GOOD DEAL OF COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FOR SHREVEPORT WITH A
RISING BAROMETER AND ALREADY AT THE 90 DEGREE MARK. ADDITIONAL
CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST HIGH IN THE MID 90S.
ELSEWHERE...SOME ACTIVE SHOWERS ON THE OUTFLOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. WE HAVE LOWERED HIGHS OVER MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS
FOR SATURATED SOIL AND THE CLOUDS. THERE IS NICE CUMULUS FIELD
SOUTH OF I-20 IN LOUISIANA...BUT HRRR MODEL IS STILL GENEROUS EVEN
NORTH OF OUTFLOW. WE HAVE LOWERED MOST OF THE 50 POPS FOR ALL AREAS
ESPECIALLY NORTH FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT SOUTH ARKANSAS.
THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A GOOD LITTLE VORT THAT HELPED
INITIATE THE MORNING CONVECTION...NOW QUICKLY BEING SHUNTED EAST
NORTH EAST AND IS OVER THE BOOT HEAL OF MO. A SECONDARY LARGER
VORT IS OVER E NB AND MAY ALSO BE SHUNTED EAST BY ALL OF THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS ANVIL OVER THE TX/OK
PANDLE. SO THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON ANY CHANGES TO POPS FOR THIS
EVENING OR TOMORROW...BUT NEW NAM IS KEEPING CHANCE FOR NOW SO WE
MAY INCREASE THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING. NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY MAY
BE OUR BEST HOPE FOR RAINFALL AREA WIDE AS THE 12Z GFS IS HINTING.
/24/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM JUST N OF
DALLAS TO TEXARKANA. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SWD TODAY...AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO MO AND GIVES IT A NUDGE. WE SHOULD GET
SOME DECENT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT. TEMP-WISE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME DECENT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TODAY`S
FCST MAX TEMPS REFLECT THAT POSSIBILITY.
AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES THE UPPER TROF FURTHER E TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL AND BECOME MORE NW TO SE
ORIENTED. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS OUR FCST TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THIS WORK WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. CHANCES
FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE NOSE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE INTRUDES INTO TX.
WITH WEAK UPPER FLOW AND A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PD...WITH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO RATCHET UP TO AND EVEN ABOVE NORMAL. /12/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 95 73 90 69 92 / 30 20 30 20 10
MLU 96 72 89 66 89 / 40 20 20 10 10
DEQ 88 66 87 64 90 / 40 20 20 10 10
TXK 90 69 87 66 89 / 40 20 20 10 10
ELD 90 69 88 64 89 / 50 20 20 10 10
TYR 93 74 90 71 92 / 30 20 40 20 20
GGG 94 74 90 70 92 / 30 20 30 20 10
LFK 96 75 92 72 93 / 20 20 40 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1142 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WELL SO MUCH POTENTIAL GOING BY THE WAY SIDE WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA NOW FROM OIL CITY TO ROCKY
MOUNT. A GOOD DEAL OF COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FOR SHREVEPORT WITH A
RISING BAROMETER AND ALREADY AT THE 90 DEGREE MARK. ADDITIONAL
CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST HIGH IN THE MID 90S.
ELSEWHERE...SOME ACTIVE SHOWERS ON THE OUTFLOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. WE HAVE LOWERED HIGHS OVER MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS
FOR SATURATED SOIL AND THE CLOUDS. THERE IS NICE CUMULUS FIELD
SOUTH OF I-20 IN LOUISIANA...BUT HRRR MODEL IS STILL GENEROUS EVEN
NORTH OF OUTFLOW. WE HAVE LOWERED MOST OF THE 50 POPS FOR ALL AREAS
ESPECIALLY NORTH FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT SOUTH ARKANSAS.
THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A GOOD LITTLE VORT THAT HELPED
INITIATE THE MORNING CONVECTION...NOW QUICKLY BEING SHUNTED EAST
NORTH EAST AND IS OVER THE BOOT HEAL OF MO. A SECONDARY LARGER
VORT IS OVER E NB AND MAY ALSO BE SHUNTED EAST BY ALL OF THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS ANVIL OVER THE TX/OK
PANDLE. SO THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON ANY CHANGES TO POPS FOR THIS
EVENING OR TOMORROW...BUT NEW NAM IS KEEPING CHANCE FOR NOW SO WE
MAY INCREASE THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING. NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY MAY
BE OUR BEST HOPE FOR RAINFALL AREA WIDE AS THE 12Z GFS IS HINTING.
/24/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...THE MAIN FLIGHT CONCERN FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL MOVE SOUTH
WITH A SURFACE FRONT. BRIEF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AND AROUND THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER TSTMS.
TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AREA WIDE AROUND 03/00Z...BUT AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH...THE CONVECTION SHOULD END EARLIER FOR AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 30. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER WITH SURFACE
WIND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
ALL AREAS BY SUNSET. SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. /14/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM JUST N OF
DALLAS TO TEXARKANA. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SWD TODAY...AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO MO AND GIVES IT A NUDGE. WE SHOULD GET
SOME DECENT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT. TEMP-WISE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME DECENT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TODAY`S
FCST MAX TEMPS REFLECT THAT POSSIBILITY.
AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES THE UPPER TROF FURTHER E TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL AND BECOME MORE NW TO SE
ORIENTED. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS OUR FCST TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THIS WORK WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. CHANCES
FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE NOSE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE INTRUDES INTO TX.
WITH WEAK UPPER FLOW AND A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PD...WITH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO RATCHET UP TO AND EVEN ABOVE NORMAL. /12/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 95 73 90 69 92 / 30 20 30 20 10
MLU 96 72 89 66 89 / 40 20 20 10 10
DEQ 88 66 87 64 90 / 40 20 20 10 10
TXK 90 69 87 66 89 / 40 20 20 10 10
ELD 90 69 88 64 89 / 50 20 20 10 10
TYR 93 74 90 71 92 / 30 20 40 20 20
GGG 94 74 90 70 92 / 30 20 30 20 10
LFK 96 75 92 72 93 / 20 20 40 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
502 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LATE TODAY AND THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S PUSHING HEAT INDICES
AS WARM AS 105 TO 107. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE EVEN APPROACHED
RECORD TERRITORY. WARM TEMPS/DEWPOINTS HAVE RESULTED IN AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LATEST SPC ANALYSIS DEPICTING MLCAPE FROM
2500-3000 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD
AREA OF CU DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS A SFC TROUGH LOCATES
OVER CNTRL VA. ALOFT...A WEAK VORT MAX DEPICTED IN THE RUC AND
VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTS INTO VA FROM THE SW. WHILE
THUNDERSTORM PARAMETERS AND MOISTURE REMAIN RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...WARM AIR AROUND H7 HAS CAPPED THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN RATHER FLAT CU. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
AIRMASS...STILL ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING. BEST
COVERAGE STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND.
INVERTED V SOUNDING WOULD MAKE STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE A BIT THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A VERY
MOIST BL AND SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH...ALL BUT FAR SE ZONES COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDER OVERNIGHT. MILD AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TWO MAIN FEATURES TO FOCUS ON IN THE SHORT TERM ARE 1. WHAT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME CAT 1 HURRICANE ARTHUR AND 2. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE LOCAL
AREA THURS AS ARTHUR PICKS UP FORWARD SPEED ALONG THE SE COAST.
ADDED TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED (VISIBLE ON 310K SFC AND H85 FLOW)
WILL PUSH PRECIP WATERS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF THE LOCAL
AREA. ADDED UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT THURS INTO THURS NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT LATE THURS MORNING-EARLY THURS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE REGION. WITH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS ANY IMPACTS DIRECTLY RELATED
TO ARTHUR WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SE COAST. BASED ON THE SLOW
FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT AND CORFIDI VECTORS...TRAINING OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER CNTRL VA. BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND LACK OF ANY THERMAL ADVECTION MAKES THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY PRECIP DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. AS A
RESULT...KEPT WITH WPC GUIDANCE WITH PLACING THE CORRIDOR OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN
SHORE. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS OF TRAINING. MEANWHILE BACK AT THE
COAST...HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL LIFT ALONG THE SC/NC COAST THURS.
ADDED CONVERGENCE AROUND THE BANDS WILL SPREAD INTO NE NC/SE
VA...WITH PRECIP REACHING INTO NE NC BY LATE THURS.
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE INTERACTIONS BTWN THE FRONT AND CYCLONE WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS RATHER HIGH...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES
ATTM. HIGH TIDE CYCLES COULD EXACERBATE ANY MINOR FLOODING ALONG
THE COAST. OCCASIONAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ALSO EXPECTED
(GUSTS 40-50 MPH) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NC COAST.
ARTHUR BEGINS TO LIFT OFF THE NC COAST FRIDAY MORNING...SWEEPING
THE FRONT THROUGH AS IT EXITS. THE RESULT WILL BE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...BUT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL GIVE HOPE TO FOURTH OF JULY EVENING PLANS ACROSS
INTERIOR VA/NC. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE ERN SHORE
THROUGH FRI EVENING. COOLER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID
80S.
THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THRU
SAT AS ~1025MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING
OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE SAT. HIGHS SAT IN THE LOW-MID 80S AS
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH
MID WEEK. MODELS SHOW A LEE TROF DVLPNG TUE WITH THE NEXT FRONT
APPRCHG FROM THE WEST WED. DRY SUN/MON. CHC POPS (20-30%) TUE/WED
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS WRN HALF OF FA.
STILL COMFY THRU SUN. LOWS SAT NITE IN THE U50S-U60S. HIGHS SUN
M-U80S. RETURN FLOW ALLOWS HEAT/HUMIDITY TO RETURN NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
90-95. LOWS U60S-M70S.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH HI PRES JUST OFFSHORE AND
A COLD FRNT WELL W OF THE AREA. SSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CU AROUND 5K FT. CHANCE OF RAIN IS TOO LO THIS
AFTN/EVENG (20-30%) TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF RAIN OUT. ANY TSTMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE PSBL THUR MORNG
ESPECIALLY AT KSBY DUE TO HIGH LO-LEVEL MOISTURE DESPITE ~10 KT
WINDS. KEPT IT P6SM ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN COMES
LATE THUR/THUR NGT DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND MOISTURE
FM TS ARTHUR.
PREDOMINANTLY S WINDS ON THUR SHOULD BACK AROUND TO A MORE NLY
DIRECTION THUR NGT INTO FRI. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO OCCUR IN NE NC AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF VA...WHERE GUSTS TO
25-35 KT ARE ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LOW
CIGS...AND POOR VSBYS SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED. OVERALL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE RAPIDLY AS FRI PROGRESSES AND HI PRES BLDS BACK INTO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH MARGINAL...WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINE UP FOR THE CHES BAY
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT AS PRS GRDNT TIGHTENS A BIT. WINDS MAY
DROP BLO SCA LVLS LATE.
FCST THEN FOCUSES ON TRPLCL STORM ARTHUR AS IT CONTS TO MOVE N
ALONG THE SE COAST AND INTO THE NC OUTER BANKS THURS NIGHT. ARTHUR
IS XPCTD TO MERGE WITH THE CD FRNT AND DEEPEN OFF THE MID ATLNTC
COAST FRI EVE...THEN TRACK RAPIDLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
TRPLCL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE S OF THE VA/NC LINE WITH GUSTS
BTWN 40-45 KTS XPCTD THURS NIGHT/FRI MORN. FCST PRBLM IS WHAT TO
DO JUST N OF THAT LINE GIVEN ANY GUSTS TO 35 KTS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT. EXPECT THE STRNGST GUSTS TO BE NEAR THE NC BORDER.
OTW...CONFIDENCE (IN WIND FCST) NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANY
HEADLINE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. SEAS WILL BUILD ABV 5 FT...BUT NOT UNTIL
FRI ACROSS NRN WATERS SO DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FRTHR
N WITH THIS PACKAGE. SCA OR PSBL GALE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRTHR N ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST FRI. XPCT WAVES TO BUILD TO
4-5 FT AND SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8 FT (10-14 FT POSSIBLE IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS) DURING MOST OF FRIDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING.
GUSTY NW WINDS XPCTD FOR SVRL HRS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTM LATE FRI
WITH IMPROVING CNDTNS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA.
RIP CRNT FCSTS DISCONTINED FOR AREAS UNDR TRPLCL HEADLINES.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR VAZ095-097-098.
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ098.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ633-634-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...BMD/MAS
MARINE...MPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
410 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LATE TODAY AND THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S PUSHING HEAT INDICES
AS WARM AS 105 TO 107. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE EVEN APPROACHED
RECORD TERRITORY. WARM TEMPS/DEWPOINTS HAVE RESULTED IN AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LATEST SPC ANALYSIS DEPICTING MLCAPE FROM
2500-3000 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD
AREA OF CU DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS A SFC TROUGH LOCATES
OVER CNTRL VA. ALOFT...A WEAK VORT MAX DEPICTED IN THE RUC AND
VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTS INTO VA FROM THE SW. WHILE
THUNDERSTORM PARAMETERS AND MOISTURE REMAIN RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...WARM AIR AROUND H7 HAS CAPPED THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN RATHER FLAT CU. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
AIRMASS...STILL ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING. BEST
COVERAGE STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND.
INVERTED V SOUNDING WOULD MAKE STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE A BIT THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A VERY
MOIST BL AND SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH...ALL BUT FAR SE ZONES COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDER OVERNIGHT. MILD AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TWO MAIN FEATURES TO FOCUS ON IN THE SHORT TERM ARE 1. WHAT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME CAT 1 HURRICANE ARTHUR AND 2. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE LOCAL
AREA THURS AS ARTHUR PICKS UP FORWARD SPEED ALONG THE SE COAST.
ADDED TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED (VISIBLE ON 310K SFC AND H85 FLOW)
WILL PUSH PRECIP WATERS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF THE LOCAL
AREA. ADDED UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT THURS INTO THURS NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT LATE THURS MORNING-EARLY THURS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE REGION. WITH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS ANY IMPACTS DIRECTLY RELATED
TO ARTHUR WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SE COAST. BASED ON THE SLOW
FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT AND CORFIDI VECTORS...TRAINING OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER CNTRL VA. BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND LACK OF ANY THERMAL ADVECTION MAKES THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY PRECIP DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. AS A
RESULT...KEPT WITH WPC GUIDANCE WITH PLACING THE CORRIDOR OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN
SHORE. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS OF TRAINING. MEANWHILE BACK AT THE
COAST...HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL LIFT ALONG THE SC/NC COAST THURS.
ADDED CONVERGENCE AROUND THE BANDS WILL SPREAD INTO NE NC/SE
VA...WITH PRECIP REACHING INTO NE NC BY LATE THURS.
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE INTERACTIONS BTWN THE FRONT AND CYCLONE WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS RATHER HIGH...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES
ATTM. HIGH TIDE CYCLES COULD EXACERBATE ANY MINOR FLOODING ALONG
THE COAST. OCCASIONAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ALSO EXPECTED
(GUSTS 40-50 MPH) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NC COAST.
ARTHUR BEGINS TO LIFT OFF THE NC COAST FRIDAY MORNING...SWEEPING
THE FRONT THROUGH AS IT EXITS. THE RESULT WILL BE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...BUT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL GIVE HOPE TO FOURTH OF JULY EVENING PLANS ACROSS
INTERIOR VA/NC. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE ERN SHORE
THROUGH FRI EVENING. COOLER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID
80S.
THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THRU
SAT AS ~1025MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING
OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE SAT. HIGHS SAT IN THE LOW-MID 80S AS
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH
MID WEEK. MODELS SHOW A LEE TROF DVLPNG TUE WITH THE NEXT FRONT
APPRCHG FROM THE WEST WED. DRY SUN/MON. CHC POPS (20-30%) TUE/WED
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS WRN HALF OF FA.
STILL COMFY THRU SUN. LOWS SAT NITE IN THE U50S-U60S. HIGHS SUN
M-U80S. RETURN FLOW ALLOWS HEAT/HUMIDITY TO RETURN NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
90-95. LOWS U60S-M70S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH HI PRES JUST OFFSHORE AND
A COLD FRNT WELL W OF THE AREA. SSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CU AROUND 5K FT. CHANCE OF RAIN IS TOO LO THIS
AFTN/EVENG (20-30%) TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF RAIN OUT. ANY TSTMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE PSBL THUR MORNG
ESPECIALLY AT KSBY DUE TO HIGH LO-LEVEL MOISTURE DESPITE ~10 KT
WINDS. KEPT IT P6SM ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN COMES
LATE THUR/THUR NGT DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND MOISTURE
FM TS ARTHUR.
PREDOMINANTLY S WINDS ON THUR SHOULD BACK AROUND TO A MORE NLY
DIRECTION THUR NGT INTO FRI. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO OCCUR IN NE NC AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF VA...WHERE GUSTS TO
25-35 KT ARE ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LOW
CIGS...AND POOR VSBYS SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED. OVERALL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE RAPIDLY AS FRI PROGRESSES AND HI PRES BLDS BACK INTO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH MARGINAL...WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINE UP FOR THE CHES BAY
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT AS PRS GRDNT TIGHTENS A BIT. WINDS MAY
DROP BLO SCA LVLS LATE.
FCST THEN FOCUSES ON TRPLCL STORM ARTHUR AS IT CONTS TO MOVE N
ALONG THE SE COAST AND INTO THE NC OUTER BANKS THURS NIGHT. ARTHUR
IS XPCTD TO MERGE WITH THE CD FRNT AND DEEPEN OFF THE MID ATLNTC
COAST FRI EVE...THEN TRACK RAPIDLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
TRPLCL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE S OF THE VA/NC LINE WITH GUSTS
BTWN 40-45 KTS XPCTD THURS NIGHT/FRI MORN. FCST PRBLM IS WHAT TO
DO JUST N OF THAT LINE GIVEN ANY GUSTS TO 35 KTS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT. EXPECT THE STRNGST GUSTS TO BE NEAR THE NC BORDER.
OTW...CONFIDENCE (IN WIND FCST) NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANY
HEADLINE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. SEAS WILL BUILD ABV 5 FT...BUT NOT UNTIL
FRI ACROSS NRN WATERS SO DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FRTHR
N WITH THIS PACKAGE. SCA OR PSBL GALE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRTHR N ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST FRI. XPCT WAVES TO BUILD TO
4-5 FT AND SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8 FT (10-14 FT POSSIBLE IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS) DURING MOST OF FRIDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING.
GUSTY NW WINDS XPCTD FOR SVRL HRS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTM LATE FRI
WITH IMPROVING CNDTNS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA.
RIP CRNT FCSTS DISCONTINED FOR AREAS UNDR TRPLCL HEADLINES.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ015>017-032-102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ098.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ633-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...BMD/MAS
MARINE...MPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
353 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LATE TODAY AND THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S PUSHING HEAT INDICES
AS WARM AS 105 TO 107. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE EVEN APPROACHED
RECORD TERRITORY. WARM TEMPS/DEWPOINTS HAVE RESULTED IN AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LATEST SPC ANALYSIS DEPICTING MLCAPE FROM
2500-3000 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD
AREA OF CU DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS A SFC TROUGH LOCATES
OVER CNTRL VA. ALOFT...A WEAK VORT MAX DEPICTED IN THE RUC AND
VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTS INTO VA FROM THE SW. WHILE
THUNDERSTORM PARAMETERS AND MOISTURE REMAIN RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...WARM AIR AROUND H7 HAS CAPPED THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN RATHER FLAT CU. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
AIRMASS...STILL ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING. BEST
COVERAGE STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND.
INVERTED V SOUNDING WOULD MAKE STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE A BIT THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A VERY
MOIST BL AND SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH...ALL BUT FAR SE ZONES COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDER OVERNIGHT. MILD AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TWO MAIN FEATURES TO FOCUS ON IN THE SHORT TERM ARE 1. WHAT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME CAT 1 HURRICANE ARTHUR AND 2. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE LOCAL
AREA THURS AS ARTHUR PICKS UP FORWARD SPEED ALONG THE SE COAST.
ADDED TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED (VISIBLE ON 310K SFC AND H85 FLOW)
WILL PUSH PRECIP WATERS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF THE LOCAL
AREA. ADDED UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT THURS INTO THURS NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT LATE THURS MORNING-EARLY THURS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE REGION. WITH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS ANY IMPACTS DIRECTLY RELATED
TO ARTHUR WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SE COAST. BASED ON THE SLOW
FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT AND CORFIDI VECTORS...TRAINING OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER CNTRL VA. BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND LACK OF ANY THERMAL ADVECTION MAKES THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY PRECIP DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. AS A
RESULT...KEPT WITH WPC GUIDANCE WITH PLACING THE CORRIDOR OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN
SHORE. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS OF TRAINING. MEANWHILE BACK AT THE
COAST...HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL LIFT ALONG THE SC/NC COAST THURS.
ADDED CONVERGENCE AROUND THE BANDS WILL SPREAD INTO NE NC/SE
VA...WITH PRECIP REACHING INTO NE NC BY LATE THURS.
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE INTERACTIONS BTWN THE FRONT AND CYCLONE WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS RATHER HIGH...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES
ATTM. HIGH TIDE CYCLES COULD EXACERBATE ANY MINOR FLOODING ALONG
THE COAST. OCCASIONAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ALSO EXPECTED
(GUSTS 40-50 MPH) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NC COAST.
ARTHUR BEGINS TO LIFT OFF THE NC COAST FRIDAY MORNING...SWEEPING
THE FRONT THROUGH AS IT EXITS. THE RESULT WILL BE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...BUT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL GIVE HOPE TO FOURTH OF JULY EVENING PLANS ACROSS
INTERIOR VA/NC. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE ERN SHORE
THROUGH FRI EVENING. COOLER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID
80S.
THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THRU
SAT AS ~1025MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING
OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE SAT. HIGHS SAT IN THE LOW-MID 80S AS
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH
MID WEEK. MODELS SHOW A LEE TROF DVLPNG TUE WITH THE NEXT FRONT
APPRCHG FROM THE WEST WED. DRY SUN/MON. CHC POPS (20-30%) TUE/WED
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS WRN HALF OF FA.
STILL COMFY THRU SUN. LOWS SAT NITE IN THE U50S-U60S. HIGHS SUN
M-U80S. RETURN FLOW ALLOWS HEAT/HUMIDITY TO RETURN NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
90-95. LOWS U60S-M70S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH HI PRES JUST OFFSHORE AND
A COLD FRNT WELL W OF THE AREA. SSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CU AROUND 5K FT. CHANCE OF RAIN IS TOO LO THIS
AFTN/EVENG (20-30%) TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF RAIN OUT. ANY TSTMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE PSBL THUR MORNG
ESPECIALLY AT KSBY DUE TO HIGH LO-LEVEL MOISTURE DESPITE ~10 KT
WINDS. KEPT IT P6SM ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN COMES
LATE THUR/THUR NGT DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND MOISTURE
FM TS ARTHUR.
PREDOMINANTLY S WINDS ON THUR SHOULD BACK AROUND TO A MORE NLY
DIRECTION THUR NGT INTO FRI. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO OCCUR IN NE NC AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF VA...WHERE GUSTS TO
25-35 KT ARE ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LOW
CIGS...AND POOR VSBYS SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED. OVERALL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE RAPIDLY AS FRI PROGRESSES AND HI PRES BLDS BACK INTO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH MARGINAL...WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINE UP FOR THE CHES BAY
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT AS PRS GRDNT TIGHTENS A BIT. WINDS MAY
DROP BLO SCA LVLS LATE.
FCST THEN FOCUSES ON TRPLCL STORM ARTHUR AS IT CONTS TO MOVE N
ALONG THE SE COAST AND INTO THE NC OUTER BANKS THURS NIGHT. ARTHUR
IS XPCTD TO MERGE WITH THE CD FRNT AND DEEPEN OFF THE MID ATLNTC
COAST FRI EVE...THEN TRACK RAPIDLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
TRPLCL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE S OF THE VA/NC LINE WITH GUSTS
BTWN 40-45 KTS XPCTD THURS NIGHT/FRI MORN. FCST PRBLM IS WHAT TO
DO JUST N OF THAT LINE GIVEN ANY GUSTS TO 35 KTS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT. GIVEN THE CONFIDENCE IN TPC`S TRACK...ELECTED TO
HOIST A GALE WRNG FOR THE CSTL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES TO THE NC
BORDER...EMPHASING THE STRNGSTS GUSTS WILL BE NEAR THE NC BORDER
(THIS BECAUSE GALE HEADLINES ARE BASED OFF GUSTS WHILE ANY TRPLCL
HEADLINES ARE BASED OFF SUSTAINED WNDS).
OTW...CONFIDENCE (IN WIND FCST) NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANY
HEADLINE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. SEAS WILL BUILD ABV 5 FT...BUT NOT UNTIL
FRI ACROSS NRN WATERS SO DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FRTHR
N WITH THIS PACKAGE. SCA OR PSBL GALE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRTHR N ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST FRI. XPCT WAVES TO BUILD TO
4-5 FT AND SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8 FT (10-14 FT POSSIBLE IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS) DURING MOST OF FRIDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING.
GUSTY NW WINDS XPCTD FOR SVRL HRS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTM LATE FRI
WITH IMPROVING CNDTNS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA.
WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR VA BEACH
THURS WITH A LOW THREAT UP THE DELMARVA COAST. FYI...RIP CRNT FCST
DISCONTINED FOR CURRITUCK COUNTY DUE TO TRPLCL HEADLINES.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ015>017-032-102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ098.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ633-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...BMD/MAS
MARINE...MPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
134 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
WITH A LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN NEAR JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS /WITH
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/ HAVE DEVELOPS OVER WRN UPPER MI AND
EXTEND BACK INTO NWRN WI WHERE GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE. THE LAKE BREEZE CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR
MOVING ONSHORE OVER ERN MARQUETTE/WRN ALGER COUNTIES...AND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AND MOVE INLAND E OF MARQUETTE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS CAPE AND SHEAR ARE LIMITED...AND ONLY ISOLATED
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. OVERALL...STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO HRRR QPF
OUTPUT FOR POPS AS IT HAS BEEN TRACKING FAIRLY WELL TODAY. AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI THIS EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT...GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL RESULT IN THESE AREAS.
OVER NW UPPER MI...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE REGIONS FROM THE NW WINDS.
VERY DRY AIR LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW TOMORROW...ERODING
CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND
OF CLEARING THE CLOUDS OUT FASTER AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FASTER
WITH THE INTRUSION OF THE DRY AIR. HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA BY 18Z WED. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WITH TEMPS AROUND 6C
WILL PASS OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY WED...WHICH WILL KEEP INLAND
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND MOST LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS IN THE
50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
MID 30S ARE STILL LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI TO
START OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRIEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD
00-06Z THURSDAY...BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 30-40 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE DRIEST AIR WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING TO
THE SE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
N AND CENTRAL PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7C ON LIGHT
N-NNW FLOW. IN FACT...PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 70 PERCENT
OF NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY FRIDAY. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
COMMON EACH AFTERNOON UNDER LIGHT WINDS AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FROM 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.
AS FOR SPECIFICS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S ON THURSDAY...ABOUT 5F WARMER THAN THOSE REALIZED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL AROUND 5F BELOW OF SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. DRY
AIR ALLOW FOR RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON HOVERING NEAR 25 PERCENT.
ON A POSITIVE NOTE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS BELOW
10KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS NEARING 15KTS ON THE LAKE BREEZE SWINGING
IN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. A SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN ON THE WNW FLOW ALOFT
MAY BRING ABOUT A FEW CLOUDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT LIKELY
MORE NO MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
LOOK FOR THE RETURN OF SW WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH EXITS
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND A SIZABLE SFC
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR OF SHOWERS /ISOLATED TS/ FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS ON SATURDAY TO BE ADJUSTED UP A COUPLE
DEGREES...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED AND 850MB TEMPS
JUMPING UP TO 14-16C. 70S AND 80S WILL BE COMMON. THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND MAY BE A BIT WETTER. THE SPECIFICS ABOUT WHEN AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO
KEEP A LOW CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...SO WILL KEEP A GENERAL BLEND
GOING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
INSTABILITY SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ALONG SFC TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.P. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE IN THE
VICINITY OF KSAW INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA HELPS PUSH SFC TROUGH
BOUNDARY SE OF THE REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH WILL LEAD TO CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT ALL
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR AGGRESSIVELY MOVES IN WED
MORNING...LEADING TO CLEARING FROM NW TO SE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25KTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY...WITH THE MARINE LAYER HELPING TO KEEP WINDS IN CHECK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND GENERALLY UNDER 20KTS.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
PRODUCE WINDS BELOW 15KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST THIS WEEKEND...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BUT THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
FINALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1058 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ALSO MOVES EAST AND FLAT RIDGE APPROACHES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL AND DRY WEATHER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN MN AND WISC WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MOST OF THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT OVER EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WISC SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO THOSE OF LAST NIGHT. WESTERN MN WILL HAVE RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING...WITH PLACES LIKE AXN AND MVE MAY BE
SEEING 8-10 MPH BY SUNRISE. MOISTURE HAS A WAYS TO GO...HOWEVER...
AND FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...INCREASINGLY WINDY...AND WITH LOW
HUMIDITIES. RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DOES MOVE INTO
WESTERN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IT IS DAMPENING AS IT MOVES INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH UPPER RIDGE STILL OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
IT IS ALSO WEAKENING. THEREFORE REALLY ONLY ANTICIPATE SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR WEST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OWING TO COLLABORATION WITH WESTERN NEIGHBORS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEAMPLIFY AND RETROGRADE TOWARD THE WEST COAST ALLOWING
ZONAL/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES TO BRING REPEATED ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HENCE THE SMALL PRECIP CHANCES
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST WAS SPENT TRYING TO
DIAGNOSE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND. AN H700-500
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WHILE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES...AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW 4000 TO 5000 J/KG SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KTS.
HOWEVER...THESE EXTREME CAPE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE THE STRONG
CAPPING THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.
BASED ON THE NUMERICAL MODELS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN MN FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE COULD LAY OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WOULD BE THE FOCUS SATURDAY...BUT IT APPEARS
THE MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED OFF IN MN/WI. ANOTHER
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...AND THAT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...TOGETHER WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE RECENTLY OVERDONE THE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES...SO DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO RAISE
POPS ABOVE GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THIS TAF SET...BUT THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHC
THAT WESTERN SITES AROUND 12Z THIS MRNG COULD SEE MVFR CONDS DUE
TO INCOMING -SHRA. A WEAK MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVING EWD FROM THE
DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN NEAR DAYBREAK MAY SPAWN ISOLD TO SCTD -SHRA
THAT MAY AFFECT KRWF-KAXN-KSTC. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT...AND AM
ADVERTISING VFR -SHRA WITH THIS SET...BUT IF RAINFALL INTENSITIES
DEVELOP PER THE LAST COUPLE HRRR AND HOPWRF MODEL RUNS...THERE
COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDS. THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
WRN MN...THUS NOT IMPACTING KMSP-KRNH-KEAU SO HAVE LEFT THOSE
SITES DRY. VFR CONDS THEN PREVAIL THRU THE DAY...BUT ANOTHER APCHG
WAVE MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCTD -SHRA FRI EVE...AGAIN OVER
MAINLY WRN TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS LIKELY IN THE MID- TO
UPR- LEVELS...GRADUALLY INCRG IN COVERAGE. WINDS TO EVENTUALLY
BECOME SLY AND BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY BY THIS AFTN.
KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT THIS FCST PKG. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MIDLVL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THAN FCST IN THE PREVIOUS FCST SET DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY STRONG MIDLVL WAVE APCHG OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
ADVERTISED BKN COVERAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WITH MULTIPLE
LAYERS XPCTD AFTER DAYBREAK BUT WITH UPR LVL CEILINGS. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY LOWER THRU THE DAY BUT NO PRECIP IS XPCTD DURG THIS SET.
LGT/VRBL WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SLY BY THE MORNING PUSH THEN INCRS
IN SPEED THRU THE AFTN HRS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1049 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED NEAR THE HWY
82 CORRIDOR IN THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS DRIFTED INTO SRN MS AND ANOTHER WAS
EVIDENT NEAR SHREVEPORT, LA MOVING TO THE SE. ALL OF THESE AND ANY
OTHERS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL SERVE AS FOCUS MECHANISMS
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. MORNING REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATES STEEP
LAPSE RATES WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG OVERALL.
HOWEVER...12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES H5 UPPER S/WV OVER THE
ARKLATEX EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY. THIS UPPER S/WV WILL ENHANCE MID-DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OVER AREAS ALONG/NW OF A LINE FROM NATCHEZ TO MACON,MS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS TODAY...INVERTED-V
TYPE SOUNDINGS WILL SUPPORT STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. MICROBURST
POTENTIAL LOOKS FAIRLY HIGH TODAY WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 3000-4000
J/KG...~1000 J/KG DCAPE...AND VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND 28-30 DEG C. IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT....STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT LOOK POSSIBLE.
THE AREAS WITH THE BEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR...~20-25KTS...LOOKS TO REMAIN
ALONG/NW OF A LINE FROM NATCHEZ TO MACON, MS. THUS...SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS HIGHER IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AND GRAPHICS/HWO LOOK ON
TRACK. AREAS IN E/SE MS LOOK TO BE MORE PULSE/DIURNAL DRIVEN
CONVECTION AS THESE ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE H5 UPPER HIGH. CAN`T RULE
OUT A STRAY SEVERE STORM IN THESE AREAS BUT MORE SUFFICIENT
SHEAR/SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO THE W/NW.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 19-20Z AND THE
PREVIOUS MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
IN S/SE MS AND CURRENT BOUNDARY NEAR SHREVEPORT WILL SERVE AS FOCUS
FOR STORMS IN THE W...ALONG WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE S.
INCREASED POPS IN THE SE DUE TO HRRR INDICATING MORE POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALSO INCREASED FROM THE NW/SE DUE TO H925
MOISTURE GRADIENT TO THE N...INDICATIVE OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
NW AND MOVING SE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
HRRR. FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...HIGHS LOOK ON TRACK OVERALL BUT
SLIGHTLY TWEAKED HIGHS WITH WARMER TEMPS IN STORE FOR E/SE MS. IT
WILL ALSO BE A HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING JUST
OVER 100 DEGREES AT MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN E/SE MS.
OVERALL...ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY COVER TO CURRENT
TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE
SEVERAL CLOUDS LAYERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOWEST HEIGHTS MAINLY 3
TO 4 KFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MIDDAY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN ALL AREAS BY BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN EARLY EVENING AT GLH/GWO/CBM/GTR/TVR. IN
THESE LATTER AREAS STORMS PRODUCING MICROBURSTS AND HIGH LEVELS OF
TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
/17/BB/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SET TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS IS
MAKING FOR A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT SHORT TERM FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
WIDESPREAD PLEASANT CONDITIONS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. BUT...FOR
TODAY...WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE PROSPECT OF THIS INCOMING BOUNDARY
LATE IN THE DAY TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN
MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS SHIFT INTRODUCED LIMITED
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE...MAINLY DUE TO DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL. THIS
ASSESSMENT STILL LOOKS BASICALLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR SPATIAL
AND TEMPORAL ADJUSTMENTS. DEBATED COVERING THE WHOLE REGION WITH
THIS RISK BECAUSE ALL AREAS WILL BE IN A HIGH LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF DCAPE TO ENHANCE MICROBURST POTENTIAL
FROM MOSTLY PULSE-TYPE STORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE
PROSPECT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MS THIS
AFTERNOON DEPTH OF MOISTURE ISSUES AND LINGERING THERMAL CAPPING
WILL LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY THERE VERY ISOLATED. IT IS NEAR THE
INCOMING FRONTAL ZONE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
THAT MOISTURE SHOULD POOL SUFFICIENTLY AND CAPPING ERODE ENOUGH TO
HAVE CONFIDENCE IN 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE OF STORMS. OTHERWISE
FOR TODAY ANTICIPATE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS SLIGHTLY
HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY (ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW MAVMOS INFLATED
EXPECTATIONS). PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK.
THIS EVENING GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEST POOLING OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE ARKLATEX
BACK EAST THROUGH FAR NORTHERN LA. A LOOSE CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD
GENERATE HERE WITH AT LEAST SOME OF THE ACTIVITY BLEEDING OVER INTO
WEST-CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT POTENTIAL FOR ANY MARGINALLY SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD END IN THE
EVENING WITH NOT ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR LOW LEVEL JET
INFLUENCE TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE WHOLE
NIGHT. THE BACK END OF THE SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD
PUSH DOWN TO THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK ALLOWING LOWS UP
THERE BY THURSDAY MORNING TO PROBABLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S.
ELSEWHERE...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MUGGY LOW TO MID 70S AGAIN.
WEAK FRONTAL LIFT WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...AND LIKELY BE IN A POSITION TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF I-20 BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE ATMOSPHERE THERE HEATS AND DESTABILIZES. THE LATEST EURO MODEL
IS MORE BULLISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN ZONES AND IT IS
POSSIBLE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAY HAVE TO
BE INCREASED IN SOUTHERN ZONES OVER WHAT I AM CURRENTLY ADVERTISING.
AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THESE AREAS BUT AT THIS TIME POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A
STRAY SEVERE STORM LOOKING TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO DUE TO
LESSER LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE POTENTIAL THAN WILL BE THE CASE THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER HOT AND HUMID IN SOUTHERN
ZONES AWAY FROM RAIN THURSDAY...BUT THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO IN THE
FORECAST AREA THE MORE TOLERABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WITH HUMIDITY
DECREASING AND HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS
NORTH OF I-20. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE THE ENTIRE FRONTAL ZONE
SLIPPING DOWN TOWARD THE COAST WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING SOUTH THROUGH THE WHOLE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS BY
THIS TIME SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES WITH RECORDS
IN THE BALLPARK AT GREENWOOD AND TVR OBSERVING SITES. /BB/
LONG TERM...INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...4TH OF JULY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE PLEASANT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WITH REDUCED HUMIDITY AND BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WITH PLENTY
OF SUN. UPWARD MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND 20-40% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS LOOK TO OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
4TH OF JULY SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHILE
DIRECTING TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND RIDGING
RETROGRADING WEST INTO TEXAS. 1-2 SD BELOW NORMAL H925 TEMPS WILL
COMBINE WITH NEAR ALL TIME LOW PWATS /0.5-0.7"/ FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR TO YIELD NEAR 10F BELOW NORMAL LOWS WITH SOME NORTHERN SITES
FLIRTING WITH RECORD LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. FULL SUN DURING FRI-SAT WILL
WARM TEMPS BACK INTO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F.
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SLOWLY BACK AROUND SUNDAY TO SE/S ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO EDGE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING SLOWLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS ATLANTIC INTO
GOM TRYING TO LINK WITH RIDGING IN SW CONUS. HOWEVER CONTINUED H5
NRN STREAM TROUGHING KEEPS RIDGE CONNECTION LINK BROKEN AND WITH A
PROGGED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER SW GOM, THE
ARKLAMISS LOOKS TO BE IN A COL OR SADDLE POINT MONDAY. BETTER
DIVERGENCE ALOFT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH
INCREASED H25 FLOW AROUND UPPER TROUGH WITH SE SFC-H7 FLOW BRINGING
IN NEAR 2" PWATS BY WEDNESDAY. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH INSTABILITY
WILL COMBINE TO INCREASE CONVECTION COVERAGE EACH DAY IN THE 20-40%
RANGE INCREASING THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
FOR WEATHER ELEMENTS...MEXMOS TEMPS WERE GENERALLY ACCEPTED WITH
SLIGHT TWEAKS UP TO LOWS GIVEN WET GROUND MODERATION BUT STILL CLOSE
TO RECORD LOWS AND MEXPOPS WERE REDUCED FRI/SAT TO NEAR NIL. /ALLEN/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 94 72 91 64 / 32 18 11 7
MERIDIAN 96 71 92 62 / 28 17 9 6
VICKSBURG 93 70 90 60 / 35 24 13 8
HATTIESBURG 96 74 95 67 / 27 14 17 12
NATCHEZ 93 72 90 64 / 31 19 22 13
GREENVILLE 93 69 87 62 / 34 14 4 2
GREENWOOD 93 67 87 61 / 30 14 4 1
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DC/17/BB/ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
709 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.
LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME CUMULUS FORMING JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH HAS
MOVED TO THE EAST AND THE SOUTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A LITTLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY TIGHT DURING THE NIGHT
TIME HOURS TONIGHT...SO WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH DURING
THE NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE NAM
AND FOR THE MOST PART THE ECMWF ARE MOSTLY DRY AND THE HRRR HAS
BASICALLY NO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GFS BRINGS IN THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND SPREADS THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER THERE COULD BE ANY
STRONG STORMS WITH THESE. THERE IS AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THAT COULD BRING IN SOME STORMS
THAT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS
WELL. WILL KEEP SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST BUT WITH THE WAVE APPROACHING THERE
COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE WEST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARMING TREND.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
PATTERN: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH VIA MULTI-AGENCY ENSEMBLE MEANS THAT A
LOW TO MODERATELY AMPLITUDE WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WILL
PREVAIL IN THE LONGWAVES FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL SAT-MON...THEN TURNING AT OR A LITTLE BELOW THAN
NORMAL TUE- THU.
ALOFT: A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW AND
SRN PLAINS FRI EVE. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. IT`S BEST SEEN
WITH DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE TOOLS. BEYOND THAT IT`S ANTICYCLONIC NW FLOW
HERE THRU SUN NIGHT...WITH THE POLAR JET CONFINED TO THE US-CAN
BORDER. UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL RESULT IN RE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE HEIGHTS
TO FALL OVER THE ERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK... DRIVING A COOL FRONT
INTO THE FCST AREA. NW FLOW WILL CONT MON-THU AND IT IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PICK OUT ANY SHORTWAVE TROFS.
SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL SUN. THEN
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION WILL SEND A COOL FRONT THRU HERE DURING THE DAY
SUN. THIS IS 6-12 HRS FASTER THAN WHEN WE LOOKED AT THIS YESTERDAY
...DEPENDENT UPON WHICH MODEL CHOSEN. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER KS MON-THU BUT WILL BE MODULATED AND/OR REINFORCED
BY TSTM ACTIVITY.
HAZARDS: THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME TSTM ACTIVITY FRI NIGHT TO
BE SEVERE. FOLLOW THE SPC OUTLOOKS FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A SLGT
RISK AND THE HWO FROM THIS OFFICE.
THERE IS OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTM OR
TWO SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
OTHER TSTM POTENTIAL EXISTS TUE-THU...BUT NO CONFIDENCE ON POTENCY
OR COVERAGE THIS FAR OUT IN A WEAK FORCING REGIME.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
FRI NIGHT: SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP LATE FRI AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT THEY WILL THREATEN AREAS N AND
W OF THE TRI-CITIES DURING THE EVENING. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01"
QPF SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OR END AS IT MOVES IN. THIS
MAY NOT BE THE END OF THE STORY. IF UPSTREAM STORMS CAN FORM A
COMMON COLD POOL AND PROPAGATE E...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO A MUCH
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH MUCAPE AVERAGING 2000 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AT LEAST 40 KTS. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF WRF-NMM AND
WRF-ARW HI-RES REFLECTIVITY SUGGEST THE IS A POSSIBILITY. WE NEED TO
MONITOR THIS TIME PERIOD FOR SEVERE TSTMS.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER ERN NEB/KS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
LLJ WILL REINTENSIFY...BUT LOW PRES THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES /AND
POSSIBLY THE TROF MOVING THRU HERE/ WILL FORCE THE LEE TROF E OF ITS
CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION. THE EFFECT WILL BE TO SHOVE THE LLJ CORE E
OF THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...REPOSITIONING THE BEST THETA-E
ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE E AS WELL.
SAT: ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS/TSTMS IN THE MORNING DEPART TO THE E.
TURNING HOT AS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FCST AREA CLIMBS INTO THE 90S.
TSTMS WILL FORM AGAIN OUT TO THE W. DO NOT ENVISION ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAKING IT HERE. STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AND
SHIFT TO N.
SUN: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. NOT SURE WE ARE HOT ENOUGH IN THE FCST.
THE COOL FRONT WILL DRAG A VERY HOT THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE FCST
AREA. 100-105F IS ON THE TABLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND S OF HWY 136.
IF THIS OCCURS THEN UPR 90S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE TRI-CITIES.
LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE SUNDAY MISERABLE WITHOUT A/C. DEWPOINTS
POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE 65-71F. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES
TO AROUND 100F OVER S-CNTRL NEB.
THE LLJ SAT NIGHT WILL ADVECT AN EML OVER THE FCST AREA. COMBINED
WITH SUBSIDENCE THIS WILL IMPOSE A FORMIDABLE CAP. SO TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS IFFY LATE AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT.
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...POSSIBLY A LEFT OVER SHWR/TSTM HERE OR
THERE. "IF" A TSTM OR TWO CAN MANAGE TO POP THRU THE CAP...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
...BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE UNDER 20 KTS.
MON: NEAR NORMAL HEAT FOR EARLY JULY...BUT NOTHING EXCESSIVE LIKE
SUN.
MON NIGHT: FOR NOW QPF FROM 00Z/12Z MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL-CLUSTERED
FOR TSTM/MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER NEB/KS. STAYED TUNED. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SOME
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. WE HAVE LOTS OF TIME FOR DETAILS TO EVOLVE.
TUE-THU: SEASONABLE TEMPS AS OF NOW...BUT MODELED TEMPS LOOK TOO
WARM FOR THE 500 MB FLOW. ENSEMBLE TEMP ANOMALIES SUGGEST TEMPS WILL
TREND COOLER THAN NORMAL.
WHILE EVERY LOCATION WILL NOT SEE A TSTM IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME
...THE POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. HOWEVER...
BOTH THE 12Z EC/GEM HAVE A CLEAR SIGNAL THAT A SECONDARY COOL FRONT
WILL SWEEP THRU TUE OR TUE NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...ENOUGH COOL AIR
COULD FORCE THE PREVIOUS FRONT FURTHER S RESULTING IN A DAY OR TWO
WHERE WE COULD REMOVE POPS FROM THE FCST. THIS SCENARIO ALSO
SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF TRENDING COOLER MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF A SHOWER AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND PERHAPS AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. CHANCES ARE LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1223 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REASONING OUTLINED IN THE MAIN MORNING
DISCUSSION BELOW REMAINS IN PRETTY DECENT SHAPE...AS THE NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN HAS IN FACT BRUSHED INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CWA. IT STILL LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY THAT EVEN
THIS FAR SOUTHWEST AREA WILL BE VOID OF ANY LIGHT RAIN RISK BY
MID-MORNING AS THE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX NOW
ENTERING THE NORTHERN CWA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STARTS TO SLIP
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ABOUT THE ONLY FORECAST ELEMENT THAT
UNDERWENT SOME MODEST TWEAKING FOR THIS UPDATE WAS SKY COVER IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST...AS IT NOW APPEARS THAT ESPECIALLY POLK COUNTY
AND IMMEDIATE VICINITY COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF ENHANCED CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING ALONG THE EXTREME WESTERN FRINGES OF A STRATUS
DECK THAT SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN OVER EASTERN NEB.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST...IT APPEARS THAT BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND
HASTINGS SURVIVED THE NIGHT WITHOUT REACHING RECORD LOWS AS BOTH
SITES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AT 52...ALTHOUGH HASTINGS CAME WITHIN 2
DEGREES OF TYING ITS RECORD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
YOU KNOW ITS A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST WHEN THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS
DECIDING WHETHER OR NOT TO PLACE A SMALL AREA OF SPRINKLES OR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA FOR THIS
MORNING. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS WE
ENJOY ONE MORE DAY/NIGHT OF 10+ DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BEFORE A WARM-UP TO MORE SUMMER LIKE
READINGS BEGINS. ALTHOUGH NOT AS BREEZY AS YESTERDAY WAS...WINDS
TODAY ARE NOT EXACTLY CALM EITHER ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281
BETWEEN THE MID-MORNING AND MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THERE WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
FIRMLY SETTLES IN. FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...BREEZES
WILL BE MORE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY 10
MPH OR LESS. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT AS PLEASANT
AS IT GETS FOR EARLY JULY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
STARTING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AS OF 08Z/3AM...11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BLOTCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EVIDENT JUST OFF THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WEST...AS A COUPLE
FAIRLY SOLID BANDS OF CLOUDS BASED AROUND 10 THOUSAND FEET ARE
WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST NEB. IN
FACT...A NARROW BUT LEGITIMATE LINE OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY
DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NEB
AREA. THIS LIGHT PRECIP/CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS BEING DRIVEN BY
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION EVIDENT IN MODEL DATA ON THE
310K SURFACE (AROUND 700 MILLIBARS)...WHICH IN TURN IS TAKING
PLACE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A VERY WELL-DEFINED
(ESPECIALLY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) ALBEIT MOISTURE-STARVED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIVING TOWARD CENTRAL NEB OUT OF
SOUTHWEST SD. THIS SHORTWAVE IS ESSENTIALLY THE LAST HURRAH OF
DISTURBANCES ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH/LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE OFF TO THE
WEST...AN AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA RESIDES JUST
DOWNSTREAM FROM A 1022MB RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE NEB/SD/WY
BORDER AREA...WHICH IS PROMOTING LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES
GENERALLY UNDER 8 MPH. ALTHOUGH ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE
PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DECENT COOLING THROUGH SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 2ND AT GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS
SHOULD STAY SAFE BY A FEW DEGREES...STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
MOST FAVORED IN FAR NORTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL COUNTIES.
LOOKING FORWARD AND STARTING WITH THESE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH
SUNRISE...THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY OF THE NARROW
STRIPES OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY WEST OF THE CWA COULD POSSIBLY
CLIP FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS. THE 06Z HRRR SUGGESTS ITS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...AND FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
MAINLY FOR PARTS OF FURNAS/ROOKS COUNTIES.
GETTING INTO THE OFFICIAL DAYTIME FORECAST PERIOD 7AM-7PM...THE
BIG PICTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS INVOLVES THE CONTINUED PASSAGE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS
SLATED TO BE PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AND EVEN
STRENGTHEN A BIT BY 00Z/7PM AS IT DEPARTS INTO THE IA/IL/MO
BORDER AREA. AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY...A FAIRLY PERSISTENT ZONE OF
MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA OVER KS...LIKELY PROMOTING A DECENT COVERAGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY (ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON) ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHWESTERN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE OBVIOUS
QUESTION THEN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER OR NOT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA THIS
MORNING BEFORE THIS PRECIP EITHER FADES OR SHIFTS MORE SAFELY INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS. NO MATTER...FELT IT COULD BE A CLOSE ENOUGH CALL FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO SLIP INTO FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES THAT DECIDED TO INSERT
A TOKEN SPRINKLE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MENTION INTO
PRIMARILY THE ROOKS COUNTY AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...WHILE
LEAVING THE ENTIRE CWA VOID OF PRECIP MENTION BEYOND 18Z/1PM. NO
MATTER WHAT...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS DRY TODAY...AND
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
THOSE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY IF NOT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE SHARP
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MID CLOUD DECK. AT THE SURFACE
TODAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DRIFTING IN FROM
NORTHWEST NEB...PROMOTING THE LIGHTER WIND REGIME TODAY AS
DESCRIBED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH ABOVE. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST SEVERAL MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY...MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS...AIMING FOR MID 70S NORTHEAST TO
UPPER 70S/POSSIBLY 80 SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HANDS DOWN IT WILL THE
COOLEST DAY THE AREA WILL SEE FOR AWHILE.
TURNING TO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
RATHER HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE...ALTHOUGH AM SEEING JUST
ENOUGH OF A ANOTHER MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL FOR THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS IN THE 06Z NAM THAT WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SHOCKED
TO SEE ANOTHER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES TOWARD SUNRISE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF
THE CWA. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS
SCENARIO YET TO DISRUPT THE PRECIP-FREE FORECAST JUST YET FOR
SOMETHING OF SUCH LITTLE IMPACT...ESPECIALLY WITH A LACK OF
LARGER-SCALE LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE BIG PICTURE IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY VOID OF ANY SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES...AS MODEST HEIGHT RISES OCCUR UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE EDGING EASTWARD A BIT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE EVENING WILL START
OUT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...BEFORE
SLIDING MORE TOWARD THE MO RIVER BY SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...EVENING
BREEZES WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BEFORE A SOMEWHAT
STEADIER ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE GETS GOING LATE IN
THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEEN INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN EXPERIENCE A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...ESPECIALLY MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE LOW TEMPS END UP
NEAR THOSE OF THIS MORNING. GENERALLY NUDGED DOWN MOST AREAS 1-2
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS...RESULTING IN LOWS FORECAST TO GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 50-53 NORTHEAST AND 53-57 SOUTHWEST. AGAIN
THOUGH...RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE SHOULD BE SAFE IN THE TRI-CITIES
AREA BY ROUGHLY 4 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE WORKING INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 12Z THURSDAY...WITH LONG WAVE RIDGING THEN
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A SERIES OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OVER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI AT 12 THURSDAY. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF TO OUR
EAST...AND TROUGHING ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES...SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF A 35-40KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THIS PRECIPITATION THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
INTO OUR AREA. THIS IS A SOLUTION STILL SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS EC AND SREF-MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FOR A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY...A CONTINUED LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD
PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. HEADING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT OF YET ANOTHER 35-40KT JET
AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA...A SOLUTION ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN. WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30%
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS TRAVELING WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY MEAN
FLOW ADVANCING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...COULD BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20-
30% POPS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THESE POPS
WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMING TREND DURING MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE
LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...AND CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
90S BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ARE ALSO FORECAST DURING
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...BEFORE RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS NEAR 10KTS DEVELOPING AFT 03/15Z.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
648 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REASONING OUTLINED IN THE MAIN MORNING
DISCUSSION BELOW REMAINS IN PRETTY DECENT SHAPE...AS THE NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN HAS IN FACT BRUSHED INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CWA. IT STILL LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY THAT EVEN
THIS FAR SOUTHWEST AREA WILL BE VOID OF ANY LIGHT RAIN RISK BY
MID-MORNING AS THE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX NOW
ENTERING THE NORTHERN CWA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STARTS TO SLIP
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ABOUT THE ONLY FORECAST ELEMENT THAT
UNDERWENT SOME MODEST TWEAKING FOR THIS UPDATE WAS SKY COVER IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST...AS IT NOW APPEARS THAT ESPECIALLY POLK COUNTY
AND IMMEDIATE VICINITY COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF ENHANCED CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING ALONG THE EXTREME WESTERN FRINGES OF A STRATUS
DECK THAT SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN OVER EASTERN NEB.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST...IT APPEARS THAT BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND
HASTINGS SURVIVED THE NIGHT WITHOUT REACHING RECORD LOWS AS BOTH
SITES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AT 52...ALTHOUGH HASTINGS CAME WITHIN 2
DEGREES OF TYING ITS RECORD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
YOU KNOW ITS A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST WHEN THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS
DECIDING WHETHER OR NOT TO PLACE A SMALL AREA OF SPRINKLES OR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA FOR THIS
MORNING. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS WE
ENJOY ONE MORE DAY/NIGHT OF 10+ DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BEFORE A WARM-UP TO MORE SUMMER LIKE
READINGS BEGINS. ALTHOUGH NOT AS BREEZY AS YESTERDAY WAS...WINDS
TODAY ARE NOT EXACTLY CALM EITHER ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281
BETWEEN THE MID-MORNING AND MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THERE WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
FIRMLY SETTLES IN. FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...BREEZES
WILL BE MORE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY 10
MPH OR LESS. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT AS PLEASANT
AS IT GETS FOR EARLY JULY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
STARTING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AS OF 08Z/3AM...11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BLOTCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EVIDENT JUST OFF THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WEST...AS A COUPLE
FAIRLY SOLID BANDS OF CLOUDS BASED AROUND 10 THOUSAND FEET ARE
WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST NEB. IN
FACT...A NARROW BUT LEGITIMATE LINE OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY
DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NEB
AREA. THIS LIGHT PRECIP/CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS BEING DRIVEN BY
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION EVIDENT IN MODEL DATA ON THE
310K SURFACE (AROUND 700 MILLIBARS)...WHICH IN TURN IS TAKING
PLACE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A VERY WELL-DEFINED
(ESPECIALLY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) ALBEIT MOISTURE-STARVED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIVING TOWARD CENTRAL NEB OUT OF
SOUTHWEST SD. THIS SHORTWAVE IS ESSENTIALLY THE LAST HURRAH OF
DISTURBANCES ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH/LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE OFF TO THE
WEST...AN AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA RESIDES JUST
DOWNSTREAM FROM A 1022MB RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE NEB/SD/WY
BORDER AREA...WHICH IS PROMOTING LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES
GENERALLY UNDER 8 MPH. ALTHOUGH ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE
PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DECENT COOLING THROUGH SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 2ND AT GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS
SHOULD STAY SAFE BY A FEW DEGREES...STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
MOST FAVORED IN FAR NORTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL COUNTIES.
LOOKING FORWARD AND STARTING WITH THESE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH
SUNRISE...THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY OF THE NARROW
STRIPES OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY WEST OF THE CWA COULD POSSIBLY
CLIP FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS. THE 06Z HRRR SUGGESTS ITS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...AND FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
MAINLY FOR PARTS OF FURNAS/ROOKS COUNTIES.
GETTING INTO THE OFFICIAL DAYTIME FORECAST PERIOD 7AM-7PM...THE
BIG PICTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS INVOLVES THE CONTINUED PASSAGE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS
SLATED TO BE PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AND EVEN
STRENGTHEN A BIT BY 00Z/7PM AS IT DEPARTS INTO THE IA/IL/MO
BORDER AREA. AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY...A FAIRLY PERSISTENT ZONE OF
MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA OVER KS...LIKELY PROMOTING A DECENT COVERAGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY (ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON) ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHWESTERN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE OBVIOUS
QUESTION THEN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER OR NOT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA THIS
MORNING BEFORE THIS PRECIP EITHER FADES OR SHIFTS MORE SAFELY INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS. NO MATTER...FELT IT COULD BE A CLOSE ENOUGH CALL FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO SLIP INTO FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES THAT DECIDED TO INSERT
A TOKEN SPRINKLE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MENTION INTO
PRIMARILY THE ROOKS COUNTY AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...WHILE
LEAVING THE ENTIRE CWA VOID OF PRECIP MENTION BEYOND 18Z/1PM. NO
MATTER WHAT...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS DRY TODAY...AND
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
THOSE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY IF NOT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE SHARP
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MID CLOUD DECK. AT THE SURFACE
TODAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DRIFTING IN FROM
NORTHWEST NEB...PROMOTING THE LIGHTER WIND REGIME TODAY AS
DESCRIBED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH ABOVE. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST SEVERAL MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY...MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS...AIMING FOR MID 70S NORTHEAST TO
UPPER 70S/POSSIBLY 80 SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HANDS DOWN IT WILL THE
COOLEST DAY THE AREA WILL SEE FOR AWHILE.
TURNING TO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
RATHER HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE...ALTHOUGH AM SEEING JUST
ENOUGH OF A ANOTHER MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL FOR THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS IN THE 06Z NAM THAT WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SHOCKED
TO SEE ANOTHER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES TOWARD SUNRISE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF
THE CWA. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS
SCENARIO YET TO DISRUPT THE PRECIP-FREE FORECAST JUST YET FOR
SOMETHING OF SUCH LITTLE IMPACT...ESPECIALLY WITH A LACK OF
LARGER-SCALE LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE BIG PICTURE IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY VOID OF ANY SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES...AS MODEST HEIGHT RISES OCCUR UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE EDGING EASTWARD A BIT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE EVENING WILL START
OUT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...BEFORE
SLIDING MORE TOWARD THE MO RIVER BY SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...EVENING
BREEZES WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BEFORE A SOMEWHAT
STEADIER ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE GETS GOING LATE IN
THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEEN INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN EXPERIENCE A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...ESPECIALLY MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE LOW TEMPS END UP
NEAR THOSE OF THIS MORNING. GENERALLY NUDGED DOWN MOST AREAS 1-2
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS...RESULTING IN LOWS FORECAST TO GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 50-53 NORTHEAST AND 53-57 SOUTHWEST. AGAIN
THOUGH...RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE SHOULD BE SAFE IN THE TRI-CITIES
AREA BY ROUGHLY 4 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE WORKING INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 12Z THURSDAY...WITH LONG WAVE RIDGING THEN
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A SERIES OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OVER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI AT 12 THURSDAY. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF TO OUR
EAST...AND TROUGHING ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES...SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF A 35-40KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THIS PRECIPITATION THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
INTO OUR AREA. THIS IS A SOLUTION STILL SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS EC AND SREF-MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FOR A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY...A CONTINUED LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD
PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. HEADING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT OF YET ANOTHER 35-40KT JET
AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA...A SOLUTION ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN. WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30%
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS TRAVELING WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY MEAN
FLOW ADVANCING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...COULD BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20-
30% POPS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THESE POPS
WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMING TREND DURING MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE
LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...AND CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
90S BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ARE ALSO FORECAST DURING
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS AS A SEASONABLY
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT
MOST...A SCATTERED LOW-END VFR CUMULUS FIELD IS ANTICIPATED
TODAY...WITH OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. NORTH-NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER THAN
TUESDAY BUT STILL EXHIBIT SOME SUSTAINED SPEED POTENTIAL OF 12+ KT
AND GUST POTENTIAL TO 18+ KT ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 15Z-21Z BEFORE
SLACKENING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE BEFORE PICKING UP SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
603 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
YOU KNOW ITS A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST WHEN THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS
DECIDING WHETHER OR NOT TO PLACE A SMALL AREA OF SPRINKLES OR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA FOR THIS
MORNING. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS WE
ENJOY ONE MORE DAY/NIGHT OF 10+ DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BEFORE A WARM-UP TO MORE SUMMER LIKE
READINGS BEGINS. ALTHOUGH NOT AS BREEZY AS YESTERDAY WAS...WINDS
TODAY ARE NOT EXACTLY CALM EITHER ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281
BETWEEN THE MID-MORNING AND MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THERE WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
FIRMLY SETTLES IN. FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...BREEZES
WILL BE MORE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY 10
MPH OR LESS. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT AS PLEASANT
AS IT GETS FOR EARLY JULY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
STARTING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AS OF 08Z/3AM...11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BLOTCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EVIDENT JUST OFF THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WEST...AS A COUPLE
FAIRLY SOLID BANDS OF CLOUDS BASED AROUND 10 THOUSAND FEET ARE
WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST NEB. IN
FACT...A NARROW BUT LEGITIMATE LINE OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY
DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NEB
AREA. THIS LIGHT PRECIP/CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS BEING DRIVEN BY
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION EVIDENT IN MODEL DATA ON THE
310K SURFACE (AROUND 700 MILLIBARS)...WHICH IN TURN IS TAKING
PLACE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A VERY WELL-DEFINED
(ESPECIALLY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) ALBEIT MOISTURE-STARVED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIVING TOWARD CENTRAL NEB OUT OF
SOUTHWEST SD. THIS SHORTWAVE IS ESSENTIALLY THE LAST HURRAH OF
DISTURBANCES ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH/LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE OFF TO THE
WEST...AN AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA RESIDES JUST
DOWNSTREAM FROM A 1022MB RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE NEB/SD/WY
BORDER AREA...WHICH IS PROMOTING LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES
GENERALLY UNDER 8 MPH. ALTHOUGH ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE
PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DECENT COOLING THROUGH SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 2ND AT GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS
SHOULD STAY SAFE BY A FEW DEGREES...STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
MOST FAVORED IN FAR NORTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL COUNTIES.
LOOKING FORWARD AND STARTING WITH THESE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH
SUNRISE...THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY OF THE NARROW
STRIPES OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY WEST OF THE CWA COULD POSSIBLY
CLIP FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS. THE 06Z HRRR SUGGESTS ITS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...AND FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
MAINLY FOR PARTS OF FURNAS/ROOKS COUNTIES.
GETTING INTO THE OFFICIAL DAYTIME FORECAST PERIOD 7AM-7PM...THE
BIG PICTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS INVOLVES THE CONTINUED PASSAGE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS
SLATED TO BE PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AND EVEN
STRENGTHEN A BIT BY 00Z/7PM AS IT DEPARTS INTO THE IA/IL/MO
BORDER AREA. AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY...A FAIRLY PERSISTENT ZONE OF
MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA OVER KS...LIKELY PROMOTING A DECENT COVERAGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY (ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON) ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHWESTERN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE OBVIOUS
QUESTION THEN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER OR NOT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA THIS
MORNING BEFORE THIS PRECIP EITHER FADES OR SHIFTS MORE SAFELY INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS. NO MATTER...FELT IT COULD BE A CLOSE ENOUGH CALL FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO SLIP INTO FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES THAT DECIDED TO INSERT
A TOKEN SPRINKLE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MENTION INTO
PRIMARILY THE ROOKS COUNTY AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...WHILE
LEAVING THE ENTIRE CWA VOID OF PRECIP MENTION BEYOND 18Z/1PM. NO
MATTER WHAT...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS DRY TODAY...AND
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
THOSE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY IF NOT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE SHARP
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MID CLOUD DECK. AT THE SURFACE
TODAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DRIFTING IN FROM
NORTHWEST NEB...PROMOTING THE LIGHTER WIND REGIME TODAY AS
DESCRIBED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH ABOVE. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST SEVERAL MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY...MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS...AIMING FOR MID 70S NORTHEAST TO
UPPER 70S/POSSIBLY 80 SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HANDS DOWN IT WILL THE
COOLEST DAY THE AREA WILL SEE FOR AWHILE.
TURNING TO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
RATHER HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE...ALTHOUGH AM SEEING JUST
ENOUGH OF A ANOTHER MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL FOR THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS IN THE 06Z NAM THAT WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SHOCKED
TO SEE ANOTHER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES TOWARD SUNRISE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF
THE CWA. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS
SCENARIO YET TO DISRUPT THE PRECIP-FREE FORECAST JUST YET FOR
SOMETHING OF SUCH LITTLE IMPACT...ESPECIALLY WITH A LACK OF
LARGER-SCALE LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE BIG PICTURE IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY VOID OF ANY SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES...AS MODEST HEIGHT RISES OCCUR UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE EDGING EASTWARD A BIT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE EVENING WILL START
OUT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...BEFORE
SLIDING MORE TOWARD THE MO RIVER BY SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...EVENING
BREEZES WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BEFORE A SOMEWHAT
STEADIER ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE GETS GOING LATE IN
THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEEN INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN EXPERIENCE A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...ESPECIALLY MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE LOW TEMPS END UP
NEAR THOSE OF THIS MORNING. GENERALLY NUDGED DOWN MOST AREAS 1-2
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS...RESULTING IN LOWS FORECAST TO GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 50-53 NORTHEAST AND 53-57 SOUTHWEST. AGAIN
THOUGH...RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE SHOULD BE SAFE IN THE TRI-CITIES
AREA BY ROUGHLY 4 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE WORKING INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 12Z THURSDAY...WITH LONG WAVE RIDGING THEN
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A SERIES OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OVER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI AT 12 THURSDAY. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF TO OUR
EAST...AND TROUGHING ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES...SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF A 35-40KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THIS PRECIPITATION THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
INTO OUR AREA. THIS IS A SOLUTION STILL SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS EC AND SREF-MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FOR A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY...A CONTINUED LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD
PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. HEADING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT OF YET ANOTHER 35-40KT JET
AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA...A SOLUTION ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN. WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30%
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS TRAVELING WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY MEAN
FLOW ADVANCING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...COULD BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20-
30% POPS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THESE POPS
WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMING TREND DURING MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE
LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...AND CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
90S BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ARE ALSO FORECAST DURING
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS AS A SEASONABLY
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT
MOST...A SCATTERED LOW-END VFR CUMULUS FIELD IS ANTICIPATED
TODAY...WITH OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. NORTH-NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER THAN
TUESDAY BUT STILL EXHIBIT SOME SUSTAINED SPEED POTENTIAL OF 12+ KT
AND GUST POTENTIAL TO 18+ KT ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 15Z-21Z BEFORE
SLACKENING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE BEFORE PICKING UP SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
351 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
YOU KNOW ITS A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST WHEN THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS
DECIDING WHETHER OR NOT TO PLACE A SMALL AREA OF SPRINKLES OR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA FOR THIS
MORNING. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS WE
ENJOY ONE MORE DAY/NIGHT OF 10+ DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BEFORE A WARM-UP TO MORE SUMMER LIKE
READINGS BEGINS. ALTHOUGH NOT AS BREEZY AS YESTERDAY WAS...WINDS
TODAY ARE NOT EXACTLY CALM EITHER ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281
BETWEEN THE MID-MORNING AND MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THERE WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
FIRMLY SETTLES IN. FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...BREEZES
WILL BE MORE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY 10
MPH OR LESS. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT AS PLEASANT
AS IT GETS FOR EARLY JULY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
STARTING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AS OF 08Z/3AM...11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BLOTCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EVIDENT JUST OFF THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WEST...AS A COUPLE
FAIRLY SOLID BANDS OF CLOUDS BASED AROUND 10 THOUSAND FEET ARE
WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST NEB. IN
FACT...A NARROW BUT LEGITIMATE LINE OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY
DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NEB
AREA. THIS LIGHT PRECIP/CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS BEING DRIVEN BY
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION EVIDENT IN MODEL DATA ON THE
310K SURFACE (AROUND 700 MILLIBARS)...WHICH IN TURN IS TAKING
PLACE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A VERY WELL-DEFINED
(ESPECIALLY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) ALBEIT MOISTURE-STARVED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIVING TOWARD CENTRAL NEB OUT OF
SOUTHWEST SD. THIS SHORTWAVE IS ESSENTIALLY THE LAST HURRAH OF
DISTURBANCES ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH/LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE OFF TO THE
WEST...AN AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA RESIDES JUST
DOWNSTREAM FROM A 1022MB RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE NEB/SD/WY
BORDER AREA...WHICH IS PROMOTING LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES
GENERALLY UNDER 8 MPH. ALTHOUGH ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE
PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DECENT COOLING THROUGH SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 2ND AT GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS
SHOULD STAY SAFE BY A FEW DEGREES...STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
MOST FAVORED IN FAR NORTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL COUNTIES.
LOOKING FORWARD AND STARTING WITH THESE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH
SUNRISE...THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY OF THE NARROW
STRIPES OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY WEST OF THE CWA COULD POSSIBLY
CLIP FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS. THE 06Z HRRR SUGGESTS ITS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...AND FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
MAINLY FOR PARTS OF FURNAS/ROOKS COUNTIES.
GETTING INTO THE OFFICIAL DAYTIME FORECAST PERIOD 7AM-7PM...THE
BIG PICTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS INVOLVES THE CONTINUED PASSAGE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS
SLATED TO BE PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AND EVEN
STRENGTHEN A BIT BY 00Z/7PM AS IT DEPARTS INTO THE IA/IL/MO
BORDER AREA. AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY...A FAIRLY PERSISTENT ZONE OF
MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA OVER KS...LIKELY PROMOTING A DECENT COVERAGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY (ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON) ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHWESTERN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE OBVIOUS
QUESTION THEN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER OR NOT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA THIS
MORNING BEFORE THIS PRECIP EITHER FADES OR SHIFTS MORE SAFELY INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS. NO MATTER...FELT IT COULD BE A CLOSE ENOUGH CALL FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO SLIP INTO FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES THAT DECIDED TO INSERT
A TOKEN SPRINKLE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MENTION INTO
PRIMARILY THE ROOKS COUNTY AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...WHILE
LEAVING THE ENTIRE CWA VOID OF PRECIP MENTION BEYOND 18Z/1PM. NO
MATTER WHAT...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS DRY TODAY...AND
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
THOSE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY IF NOT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE SHARP
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MID CLOUD DECK. AT THE SURFACE
TODAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DRIFTING IN FROM
NORTHWEST NEB...PROMOTING THE LIGHTER WIND REGIME TODAY AS
DESCRIBED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH ABOVE. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST SEVERAL MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY...MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS...AIMING FOR MID 70S NORTHEAST TO
UPPER 70S/POSSIBLY 80 SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HANDS DOWN IT WILL THE
COOLEST DAY THE AREA WILL SEE FOR AWHILE.
TURNING TO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
RATHER HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE...ALTHOUGH AM SEEING JUST
ENOUGH OF A ANOTHER MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL FOR THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS IN THE 06Z NAM THAT WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SHOCKED
TO SEE ANOTHER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES TOWARD SUNRISE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF
THE CWA. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS
SCENARIO YET TO DISRUPT THE PRECIP-FREE FORECAST JUST YET FOR
SOMETHING OF SUCH LITTLE IMPACT...ESPECIALLY WITH A LACK OF
LARGER-SCALE LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE BIG PICTURE IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY VOID OF ANY SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES...AS MODEST HEIGHT RISES OCCUR UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE EDGING EASTWARD A BIT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE EVENING WILL START
OUT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...BEFORE
SLIDING MORE TOWARD THE MO RIVER BY SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...EVENING
BREEZES WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BEFORE A SOMEWHAT
STEADIER ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE GETS GOING LATE IN
THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEEN INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN EXPERIENCE A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...ESPECIALLY MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE LOW TEMPS END UP
NEAR THOSE OF THIS MORNING. GENERALLY NUDGED DOWN MOST AREAS 1-2
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS...RESULTING IN LOWS FORECAST TO GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 50-53 NORTHEAST AND 53-57 SOUTHWEST. AGAIN
THOUGH...RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE SHOULD BE SAFE IN THE TRI-CITIES
AREA BY ROUGHLY 4 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE WORKING INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 12Z THURSDAY...WITH LONG WAVE RIDGING THEN
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A SERIES OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OVER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI AT 12 THURSDAY. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF TO OUR
EAST...AND TROUGHING ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES...SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF A 35-40KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THIS PRECIPITATION THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
INTO OUR AREA. THIS IS A SOLUTION STILL SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS EC AND SREF-MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FOR A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY...A CONTINUED LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD
PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. HEADING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT OF YET ANOTHER 35-40KT JET
AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA...A SOLUTION ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN. WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30%
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS TRAVELING WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY MEAN
FLOW ADVANCING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...COULD BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20-
30% POPS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THESE POPS
WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMING TREND DURING MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE
LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...AND CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
90S BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ARE ALSO FORECAST DURING
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS AS A SEASONABLY
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN
FACT...ANY CLOUD COVER WHATSOEVER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED.
SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BECOME AS BREEZY DURING THE DAY AS THEY
WERE ON TUESDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST NORTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED
SPEEDS NOT EXPECTED TO AVERAGE MORE THAN 12KT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS. ON EITHER SIDE OF THE DAYTIME HOURS (BOTH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING)...WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 5KT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
605 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CENTER OF A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WOBBLE AROUND NW
NM THRU TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE OR TWO WILL SEND
NMRS TSRA/SHRA S AND SEWD FM THE N MTS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS
INCLUDING KABQ...KSAF AND KLVS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
SOME CELLS COULD MAKE IT AS FAR E/SE AS KTCC...BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT
LOW GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS AND DRY MOS. SOME CELLS MAY WORK
THEIR WAY NWWD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ACROSS KGUP THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE
CONTINUING TO FAVOR CENTRAL AREAS. MODEL STREAMLINES DEPICT THE
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SHIFTING SEWD ON FRIDAY CAUSING
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO CROSS THE N AND W MTS AS STORMS
GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NW...N OR NE.
44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...537 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014...
.UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...SPC SSEO PRODUCT...THE HI-RES WRF
FROM ABQ AND SPC...AS WELL AS THE 23Z LAPS INSTABILITY PARAMS...
HAVE UPDATED TO RAISE POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE ABQ AND
SAF METRO AS WELL AS THE EAST MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES THIS EVENING.
EXPECT ROBUST CONVECTION TO CONTINUE MERGING INTO A CLUSTER AROUND
BERNALILLO...SANDOVAL...SANTA FE...AND TORRANCE COUNTIES. THIS
CLUSTER IS INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH IN
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHILE DISSIPATING THROUGH 08Z.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO
MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL BE ON INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A MUCH HEALTHIER CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS/TOWERING CUMULUS OVER ALL
MOUNTAIN RANGES THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH WEDNESDAY. CLASSIC
THUNDERHEAD STRUCTURE ALSO APPARENT WITH THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS VERY WEAK. CLOCKWISE
STEERING FLOW ALSO QUITE APPARENT AS STORMS OVER NORTHERN NM
MOVING/PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS DRIFTING EAST AND SOUTHEAST RESPECTIVELY. WITH
WEAK STEERING WINDS BEING THE RULE...COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL HAVE TO INITIATE STORMS IN THE BASINS AND VALLEYS THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY RUN WRF MODEL MODEL INDICATING THAT A CLUSTER OF
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THIS EVENING...QUITE POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE SANTA FE AND ABQ METRO
AREAS ALONG WITH EAST MOUNTAIN AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...NAM12 BUFR DATA
INDICATING THAT THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION/CAP OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE BROKEN EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A FEW MORE
HOURS OF ADDITIONAL HEATING...GETTING EASTERN AREAS INTO THE ACT.
SIMILAR SET UP FOR FRIDAY WITH MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING STEERING
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE ELY. TOUGH PART IS GETTING STORMS
TO PROPAGATE OFF THE SMALLER MOUNTAINS RANGES SUCH AS THE SANDIAS
AND MANZANOS INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS AND BASINS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WINDS. FOURTH OF JULY ACTIVITIES IN THE NORTH VALLEY
OF ABQ MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
NAM12 INDICATING SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH STEERING FLOW TAKING STORMS SLOWLY WEST AND NORTHWEST.
VERY DRY AIRMASS AT 500MB WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER HIGH AND OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LIMITING STORM CHANCES
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WESTWARD TO THE MIDDLE RG VALLEY.
BY TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MORE
TRADITIONAL UPPER LEVEL PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL WORK UP
INTO AZ. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SEEP INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NM FOR AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BEYOND DAY SEVEN AS TO THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER HIGH AND WHETHER OR NOT THE MONSOON PLUME
WILL BE CENTERED OVER NM OR AZ.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT GRADUAL DRYING HAS TAKEN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH THE MORNING MOISTURE MIXING OUT.
DESPITE THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL DEVELOPING IN
THIS AREA AND PROVIDE WETTING RAINS...THOUGH A FEW MAY BE ON THE
DRIER SIDE. THIS AND CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY MOVING SSE ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND WSW ACROSS
SW NM. HRRR MODEL INDICATES CONVECTION WILL PERSIST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RGV. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE CAP
BREAKS PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 RUNS...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO POP GRIDS.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE ACROSS THE
DESERT SW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TURNING CLOCKWISE AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN. BY SUNDAY...THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED...BUT FAVOR THE GILA MOUNTAINS. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE
MOIST SFC AND 700MB LEVEL S TO SE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE
WESTERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL DRYING AREAWIDE THROUGH
SUNDAY AND OVERALL DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL
LOWER EACH DAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES WILL DROP AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEY AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND BECOME NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. VENT RATES AND TRANS WINDS
WILL BOTTOM OUT FRIDAY BEFORE IMPROVING THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW NM.
MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING IN THE SETUP OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. USING A BLEND CONCEPT...IT APPEARS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THE HIGH SLIGHTLY WEST...WITH A WEAK
WIND SHIFT AT THE 700 AND 500MB LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING BACK A MORE
MOIST SELY TO SLY TO NEW MEXICO. THIS CONCEPTUAL MODEL ALIGNS WITH
GFS THETA-E RIDGE POSITIONING. BY MONDAY...THE THETA-E RIDGE BECOME
VERTICAL ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER...AND SLOWLY MOVE E WHILE TURNING
CLOCKWISE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS...HIGHER HUMIDITIES...AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL SEE
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THIS PATTERN...OR DIVERGE AGAIN.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
537 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...SPC SSEO PRODUCT...THE HI-RES WRF
FROM ABQ AND SPC...AS WELL AS THE 23Z LAPS INSTABILITY PARAMS...
HAVE UPDATED TO RAISE POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE ABQ AND
SAF METRO AS WELL AS THE EAST MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES THIS EVENING.
EXPECT ROBUST CONVECTION TO CONTINUE MERGING INTO A CLUSTER AROUND
BERNALILLO...SANDOVAL...SANTA FE...AND TORRANCE COUNTIES. THIS
CLUSTER IS INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH IN
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHILE DISSIPATING THROUGH 08Z.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO
MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL BE ON INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A MUCH HEALTHIER CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS/TOWERING CUMULUS OVER ALL
MOUNTAIN RANGES THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH WEDNESDAY. CLASSIC
THUNDERHEAD STRUCTURE ALSO APPARENT WITH THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS VERY WEAK. CLOCKWISE
STEERING FLOW ALSO QUITE APPARENT AS STORMS OVER NORTHERN NM
MOVING/PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS DRIFTING EAST AND SOUTHEAST RESPECTIVELY. WITH
WEAK STEERING WINDS BEING THE RULE...COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL HAVE TO INITIATE STORMS IN THE BASINS AND VALLEYS THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY RUN WRF MODEL MODEL INDICATING THAT A CLUSTER OF
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THIS EVENING...QUITE POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE SANTA FE AND ABQ METRO
AREAS ALONG WITH EAST MOUNTAIN AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...NAM12 BUFR DATA
INDICATING THAT THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION/CAP OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE BROKEN EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A FEW MORE
HOURS OF ADDITIONAL HEATING...GETTING EASTERN AREAS INTO THE ACT.
SIMILAR SET UP FOR FRIDAY WITH MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING STEERING
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE ELY. TOUGH PART IS GETTING STORMS
TO PROPAGATE OFF THE SMALLER MOUNTAINS RANGES SUCH AS THE SANDIAS
AND MANZANOS INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS AND BASINS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WINDS. FOURTH OF JULY ACTIVITIES IN THE NORTH VALLEY
OF ABQ MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
NAM12 INDICATING SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH STEERING FLOW TAKING STORMS SLOWLY WEST AND NORTHWEST.
VERY DRY AIRMASS AT 500MB WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER HIGH AND OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LIMITING STORM CHANCES
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WESTWARD TO THE MIDDLE RG VALLEY.
BY TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MORE
TRADITIONAL UPPER LEVEL PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL WORK UP
INTO AZ. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SEEP INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NM FOR AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BEYOND DAY SEVEN AS TO THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER HIGH AND WHETHER OR NOT THE MONSOON PLUME
WILL BE CENTERED OVER NM OR AZ.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT GRADUAL DRYING HAS TAKEN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH THE MORNING MOISTURE MIXING OUT.
DESPITE THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL DEVELOPING IN
THIS AREA AND PROVIDE WETTING RAINS...THOUGH A FEW MAY BE ON THE
DRIER SIDE. THIS AND CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY MOVING SSE ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND WSW ACROSS
SW NM. HRRR MODEL INDICATES CONVECTION WILL PERSIST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RGV. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE CAP
BREAKS PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 RUNS...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO POP GRIDS.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE ACROSS THE
DESERT SW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TURNING CLOCKWISE AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN. BY SUNDAY...THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED...BUT FAVOR THE GILA MOUNTAINS. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE
MOIST SFC AND 700MB LEVEL S TO SE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE
WESTERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL DRYING AREAWIDE THROUGH
SUNDAY AND OVERALL DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL
LOWER EACH DAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES WILL DROP AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEY AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND BECOME NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. VENT RATES AND TRANS WINDS
WILL BOTTOM OUT FRIDAY BEFORE IMPROVING THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW NM.
MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING IN THE SETUP OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. USING A BLEND CONCEPT...IT APPEARS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THE HIGH SLIGHTLY WEST...WITH A WEAK
WIND SHIFT AT THE 700 AND 500MB LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING BACK A MORE
MOIST SELY TO SLY TO NEW MEXICO. THIS CONCEPTUAL MODEL ALIGNS WITH
GFS THETA-E RIDGE POSITIONING. BY MONDAY...THE THETA-E RIDGE BECOME
VERTICAL ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER...AND SLOWLY MOVE E WHILE TURNING
CLOCKWISE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS...HIGHER HUMIDITIES...AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL SEE
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THIS PATTERN...OR DIVERGE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. CU WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER N MTS AND WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN...DEVELOPING INTO SCT SHRA AND TSTMS AFTER 1830Z. BRIEF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT POSSIBLE WITH STORMS AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE SSE ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND WSW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. USED HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH
MODEL TO HONE IN ON POTENTIAL TIMING OF STORMS NEAR TERMINAL
SITES...WITH KSAF AND KLVS MOST LIKELY IMPACTED. SIMILAR SETUP AS
YESTERDAY SHOULD YIELD LATE EVENING POTENTIAL STORM ARRIVAL FOR
KABQ AND KAEG. WILL MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND AMEND IF STORMS
DEVELOP CLOSER TO TERMINAL SITES EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTING AT REDUCED VSBYS NEAR KTCC AROUND 09Z...BUT LACK
OF EXPECTED STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA TO INDUCE CATEGORICAL CHANGES
PRECLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP EYE ON.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TO NMRS TSRA/SHRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS E
OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF SHOWERS...MAY LINGER INTO EARLY WED MORNING. EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALSO CAUSE PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED WED AFTN/NIGHT...EXCEPT
FOR ISOLD ACTIVITY W OF THE CONTDVD. WET MICROBURSTS SHOULD
PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH E OF THE CONTDVD WITH A
MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY FARTHER W. SMALL HAIL AND FQT LIGHTNING
ALSO LIKELY.
44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...244 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE WORKING INTO THE AREA
TODAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH THICKER CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT
DOWN TREND IN STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE WORKS NORTH INTO THE STATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
19Z LAPS DATA AND LATEST RADAR PICTURE SYNCING UP WELL AS THE BULK
OF THE SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONT DVD AND
THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE NORTHERN MTS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY IS POISED OVER THE PLAINS HOWEVER CLOUDS AND RESULTING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ARE SLOWING DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST HRRR AND
RUC AGREE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE DIVIDE WILL SPREAD EAST TOWARD THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SHARP
DRYLINE OVER WESTERN NM WILL FAVOR DRIER PRECIP ACTIVITY WEST OF
THE DIVIDE WITH WET/DRY ACTIVITY BTWN THE DIVIDE AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. THE SPC STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE PRODUCT INDICATES A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SOCORRO COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING THAT
DEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE HRRR INDICATES THIS CLUSTER COMING OUT OF SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO THEN RIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BLENDED
THE 2 SOLUTIONS SO MUCH OF THE EAST IS AT HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY
FOR TONIGHT.
GAP WINDS WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
FORCE THE MOISTURE SURGE MUCH FARTHER WEST INTO EASTERN ARIZONA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE THETA-E AXIS WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH STEERING FLOW FORCING ACTIVITY EAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE ABQ/SAF METRO IN THE EVENING. PWAT VALUES
FROM 1 TO 1.5 FROM WEST TO EAST AND LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SO MAINTAINED THAT WORDING THRU WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AROUND CENTRAL NM INCLUDING ABQ AND SAF IN QUITE SOME TIME.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BECOME ORIENTED
MORE WEST-EAST OVER NORTHERN NM. NORTH-SOUTH STEERING FLOW WILL
FAVOR ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN TO SLIDE INTO THE
ABQ/SAF METRO AREA. CURRENT POP GRIDS TREND CHANCES DOWN TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY HOWEVER IT WILL DEPEND
ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE FALLS THROUGH THURSDAY AND WORKS WITH STRONG
RECYCLING PROCESSES. THE GFS INDICATES A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
MOIST INSTABILITY AGAIN OVER CENTRAL NM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS
SO AGAIN STEERING FLOW WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THE ABQ/SAF AREAS.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RAMPING UP THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR/EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO ESPECIALLY FROM THE
UPPER GILA REGION SOUTH WHERE THE AIR MASS QUICKLY DESTABILIZED
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER EASTERLY PUSH. STILL CONCERN
FOR DRIER STORMS HERE WITH LIGHTNING AND MICROBURST POTENTIAL
BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THOUGH
IMPROVING MOISTURE PROFILES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.
AIR MASS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE IMPACTS
OF LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT HAVE LINGERED LONGER. STILL WATCHING FOR A
REINFORCING SURGE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE IS FORCED WESTWARD. THUS...LOOK FOR REJUVENATED EASTERLY
GAP WINDS LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADIENTS RELAX WED AM. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...DRIER DEWPOINTS LOOK TO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND WEST WITH A TREND TOWARD MORE DRY OR MIXED WET AND DRY
STORMS FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BENEATH WEAK STEERING FLOW.
RH RECOVERIES MUCH MUCH IMPROVED WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT READINGS
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERMS BUT WILL START A DOWNWARD TREND BY
TUESDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND UPWARD WEDNESDAY AS WETTING PRECIP
SHIFTS WESTWARD. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH
WETTER STORMS IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL...AND DRIER OR MIX OF WET AND
DRY ACROSS THE FAR WEST PRIMARILY FROM THE DIVIDE WESTWARD. EXPECT FAIR TO
POOR VENTILATION WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE EAST AND SPOTTY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE WEST.
THURSDAY WILL START TO SEE DIMINISHING PRECIP IN THE EAST BUT
INCREASING TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND WEST. FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION
FROM THE WEST TO THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY BUT GOOD TO EXCELLENT
IN THE EAST. BY FRIDAY JULY 4TH...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL AREAS...WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
NEAR NORMAL AREA WIDE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES UNTIL TUESDAY. 32
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
945 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AS DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
930 PM EDT UPDATE...
ALL WATCHES HAVE EXPIRED THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FOR THE MOST PART EXITED THE
AREA. A SFC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN NY AND EXPECT TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS A LINE OF WEAK
SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH. OTHERWISE... MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
115 PM UPDATE...
WW 389 (SVR) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CNY/NE PA THROUGH 01Z.
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND PRODUCERS IS STILL THERE...WITH ML CAPES
BLDG INTO THE 1000-1500 RANGE...AND 0-3 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KT. A
TRANSITION...HOWEVER...MORE TWDS A HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO IS STILL
FORESEEN BY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY IN THE EVE...AS PER PREV DISC
BLO.
PREV DISC... 1030 AM UPDATE... RELATIVELY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE
TO THE SKY COVER/POP/WX GRIDS...BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE.
SAT/RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MRNG SHOWS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDS OVER
CNY/NE PA...WITH MRNG FOG/STRATUS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE. PRIND
STILL ARE THAT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL FIRE UP OVER OUR WRN/NRN ZNS EARLY
THIS AFTN (16-18Z)...WITH COVERAGE GROWING FARTHER E LATER IN THE
DAY (18-20Z AND LATER). OUR LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR OUTPUT SUPPORTS
THIS THINKING WELL.
AS FAR AS POTENTIAL SVR STORMS GO...WE FEEL THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY (MOSTLY 18-21Z)...AS STORMS INITIALLY
FORM...AND ARE ABLE TO PLUG INTO DEEP-LYRD SHEAR (0-3 KM VALUES OF
30-40 KT). STG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS REGARD.
LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVE...HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BECOME THE
GREATER CONCERN...MOSTLY OVER OUR SERN ZNS (NE PA AND THE WRN
CATSKILLS). THE MAIN PLAYERS HERE ARE A STRENGTHENING UPR-LVL JET
TO OUR N FROM LK ONT INTO ONT/QUE...A SLOW MOVING FRNTL BNDRY ACRS
WRN/CNTRL NY...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (WITH INCREASING INPUT
FROM ARTHUR BY EARLY EVE). THE LATEST BLENDED TPW/WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS ARTHUR`S MOISTURE PLUME MERGING INTO THE ALREADY
EXISTING BAND OF FAIRLY HI PWAT AIR ALG THE MID-ATL COAST...AS OF
LATE THIS MRNG. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS LARGER-
SCALE MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN SHOWING BACKING
925-850 MB FLOW...WITH DEEPER TROP MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO ERN
PA/NJ/SERN NY BY 22-02Z. MODEL TRAJS FROM THE LATEST GFS/RAP RUNS
ALSO SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF ARTHUR`S INFLUENCE LIKELY INTO ERN
PA BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME FRAME.
THE ABV DESCRIBED CONFIGURATION OF THE UPR JET CORE...LOW-LVL
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...PWAT...AND A SFC FRNT STILL MATCH THE
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR A "SWLY JET TYPE PRE" (PREDECESSOR RAIN
EVENT) WELL. AS STATED EARLIER...WE THINK THE MAIN FF THREAT IN
OUR CWA WILL BE E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...BUT SINCE THE WATCH IS
PRESENTLY UP AREA-WIDE...AND CONVECTION HAS NOT REALLY SHOWN
ITSELF JUST YET...WE`LL LEAVE THE WATCH AREA AS IS FOR THE TIME
BEING.
OTHERWISE...OUR HIGH TEMP FCST THIS AFTN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE (GENERALLY UPR 70S-MID 80S...WITH SOME UPR 80S IN THE
WYO/LACK VLYS OF NE PA).
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO NY KEEPING TS ARTHUR ON THE
COAST. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL PUSH EAST. THIS WILL PUSH SHOWERS OUT OF THE FAR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRI NGT AS
ARTHUR MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE HIGH. WITH THE CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY PEAK MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S FOR A COLD 4TH.
ON SAT THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BUT
EXTEND NORTH INTO ONTARIO PROVIDING THE OUR CWA WITH DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER FRI NGT TO SAT NGT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY BUT WARMER THAN FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF ACTIVE WEATHER THIS AFTN...MED RNG FSCT
INCORPORATED HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH LOOKED VERY GOOD. PTRN WILL
FAVOR A BROAD UPR TROF WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVG THRU...LEADING TO A
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE WITH A FNTL SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE RGN MON NGT/TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FINAL RND OF CONV MVG THRU THE TAF SITES ATTM. LOOKS LIKE THE PCPN
WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST LVG AVP AS THE LAST PLACE
TO SEE ANY SHWRS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE LEFTOVER AND WITH WITH CAA...FOG
AND LWRD CIGS SEEM LIKELY. GRADAUL IMPRMT ON FRI SHD RESULT IN VFR
CONFS ALL STATIONS BY MID MRNG.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NGT THROUGH SUN...VFR.
MON...VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KELM.
MON NGT/TUE...MVFR PSBL IN SCT TSRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/RRM
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
733 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS NEW YORK WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
LIKELY WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY AND
REMAIN FOR THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
115 PM UPDATE... WW 389 (SVR) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CNY/NE
PA THROUGH 01Z. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND PRODUCERS IS STILL
THERE...WITH ML CAPES BLDG INTO THE 1000-1500 RANGE...AND 0-3 KM
SHEAR OF 30-40 KT. A TRANSITION...HOWEVER...MORE TWDS A HEAVY RAIN
SCENARIO IS STILL FORESEEN BY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY IN THE
EVE...AS PER PREV DISC BLO.
PREV DISC... 1030 AM UPDATE... RELATIVELY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE
TO THE SKY COVER/POP/WX GRIDS...BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE.
SAT/RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MRNG SHOWS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDS OVER
CNY/NE PA...WITH MRNG FOG/STRATUS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE. PRIND
STILL ARE THAT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL FIRE UP OVER OUR WRN/NRN ZNS EARLY
THIS AFTN (16-18Z)...WITH COVERAGE GROWING FARTHER E LATER IN THE
DAY (18-20Z AND LATER). OUR LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR OUTPUT SUPPORTS
THIS THINKING WELL.
AS FAR AS POTENTIAL SVR STORMS GO...WE FEEL THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY (MOSTLY 18-21Z)...AS STORMS INITIALLY
FORM...AND ARE ABLE TO PLUG INTO DEEP-LYRD SHEAR (0-3 KM VALUES OF
30-40 KT). STG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS REGARD.
LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVE...HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BECOME THE
GREATER CONCERN...MOSTLY OVER OUR SERN ZNS (NE PA AND THE WRN
CATSKILLS). THE MAIN PLAYERS HERE ARE A STRENGTHENING UPR-LVL JET
TO OUR N FROM LK ONT INTO ONT/QUE...A SLOW MOVING FRNTL BNDRY ACRS
WRN/CNTRL NY...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (WITH INCREASING INPUT
FROM ARTHUR BY EARLY EVE). THE LATEST BLENDED TPW/WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS ARTHUR`S MOISTURE PLUME MERGING INTO THE ALREADY
EXISTING BAND OF FAIRLY HI PWAT AIR ALG THE MID-ATL COAST...AS OF
LATE THIS MRNG. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS LARGER-
SCALE MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN SHOWING BACKING
925-850 MB FLOW...WITH DEEPER TROP MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO ERN
PA/NJ/SERN NY BY 22-02Z. MODEL TRAJS FROM THE LATEST GFS/RAP RUNS
ALSO SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF ARTHUR`S INFLUENCE LIKELY INTO ERN
PA BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME FRAME.
THE ABV DESCRIBED CONFIGURATION OF THE UPR JET CORE...LOW-LVL
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...PWAT...AND A SFC FRNT STILL MATCH THE
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR A "SWLY JET TYPE PRE" (PREDECESSOR RAIN
EVENT) WELL. AS STATED EARLIER...WE THINK THE MAIN FF THREAT IN
OUR CWA WILL BE E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...BUT SINCE THE WATCH IS
PRESENTLY UP AREA-WIDE...AND CONVECTION HAS NOT REALLY SHOWN
ITSELF JUST YET...WE`LL LEAVE THE WATCH AREA AS IS FOR THE TIME
BEING.
OTHERWISE...OUR HIGH TEMP FCST THIS AFTN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE (GENERALLY UPR 70S-MID 80S...WITH SOME UPR 80S IN THE
WYO/LACK VLYS OF NE PA).
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO NY KEEPING TS ARTHUR ON THE
COAST. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL PUSH EAST. THIS WILL PUSH SHOWERS OUT OF THE FAR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRI NGT AS
ARTHUR MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE HIGH. WITH THE CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY PEAK MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S FOR A COLD 4TH.
ON SAT THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BUT
EXTEND NORTH INTO ONTARIO PROVIDING THE OUR CWA WITH DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER FRI NGT TO SAT NGT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY BUT WARMER THAN FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF ACTIVE WEATHER THIS AFTN...MED RNG FSCT
INCORPORATED HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH LOOKED VERY GOOD. PTRN WILL
FAVOR A BROAD UPR TROF WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVG THRU...LEADING TO A
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE WITH A FNTL SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE RGN MON NGT/TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FINAL RND OF CONV MVG THRU THE TAF SITES ATTM. LOOKS LIKE THE PCPN
WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST LVG AVP AS THE LAST PLACE
TO SEE ANY SHWRS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE LEFTOVER AND WITH WITH CAA...FOG
AND LWRD CIGS SEEM LIKELY. GRADAUL IMPRMT ON FRI SHD RESULT IN VFR
CONFS ALL STATIONS BY MID MRNG.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NGT THROUGH SUN...VFR.
MON...VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KELM.
MON NGT/TUE...MVFR PSBL IN SCT TSRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/RRM
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
648 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE SECOND
OF THESE FRONTS WILL TEMPORARILY STALL OVER EASTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWER TEMPERATURES AND MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTS AS WE END THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WELL DEFINED LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER FROM AN
HOUR AGO HAS SINCE PUSHED EAST AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY FRO THE RADAR TO
LOSE ITS VISUAL IDENTITY...HOWEVER...IT IS STILL QUITE APPARENT ON
VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH SBCAPES >1000 J/KG IN THE FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LK
ONTARIO SUPPORTING STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
ALONG WITH DOWNPOURS WITH A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN (UNDER 45
MINS).
A NEW BOUNDARY HAS CAME ASHORE FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND IS IN THE
PROCESS OF PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS NIAGARA AND ORLEANS COUNTIES. THIS
IS MORE OF AN OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND NOT A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT NEVERTHELESS...COULD PROVE TO
ASSIST UNORGANIZED WEAK CONVECTION THAT IS PUSHING ITS WAY UP THE
LENGTH OF LAKE ERIE. AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM THE PAST 45 MINUTES DO
NOT HOW A LOT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE IAG FRONTIER (<500 J/KG)...
BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY MORE THAN ENOUGH TO RUIN SOMEONES EVENING IF
THEY HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.
ON A LARGER SCALE...A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO/WRN LAKE ERIE
WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED. THIS FEATURE COULD IGNITE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT ILL DEFINED SFC BASED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
FURTHER EAST...SIGNIFICANT DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY TO THE TUNE
OF SBCAPES OF 1500 J/KG WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING FROM UNDER THE RR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT H25 JET. THERE
IS CURRENTLY TSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO FROM THIS
SCENARIO...SO THERE WILL BE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN GOING FORWARD THE
NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS.
FOR THURSDAY...A SLOWING/STALLING COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE
GENESEE VALLEY TO BEGIN THE DAY. INSTABILITY IS NOT AS GREAT AS
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. WHILE THERE LIKELY
WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS FEEL THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL COME MORE FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THAN SEVERE WIND/HAIL.
REASONS FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD WILL BE THE
REGION FALLING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KNOT 250 HPA
JET STREAK EMANATING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS FAVORABLE LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL STORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. THIS MOISTURE FOLLOWING AN 850 HPA THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND
ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE COMBINED LIFT OF THE
JET STREAK/LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR DRENCHING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH A SSW-NNW
PROGRESSION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRAINING STORMS COULD BRING
LOCALLY POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. FOR NOW WILL MENTION THE HEAVY
RAINFALL MAKERS IN THE HWO PRODUCT...AS CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN AT THIS POINT REMAINS QUITE LOW.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE ACROSS THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS THAN LAST NIGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW UNDER COOLING 850 HPA
ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER WILL RANGE ACROSS THE 70S FOR OUR
AREA...WARMEST ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT/WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK WILL FINALLY GET SHUNTED EASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND BY A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND NORTH COUNTRY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...WHILE ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS. EVEN WITH THE PRECIP COMING
TO AN END THOUGH...DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN FARLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY
REACHES PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATE. TEMPERATURE-WISE...
A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BURGEONING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINES...WITH ITS EFFECTS REMAINING WELL EAST OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANY LINGERING EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE THESE MAY WIND UP BEING
REPLACED BY A DECENT AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CU. WITH THE INCREASING
SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN +8C AND +9C...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST PLACES...
THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIGHT NOT
MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER 60S. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY COMFORTABLE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
THEN MAKING FOR EQUALLY COMFORTABLE SLEEPING CONDITIONS ONCE THE
HOLIDAY CELEBRATIONS CONCLUDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT...THE FINE WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ALSO PERSISTING. IN TERMS OF ACTUAL TEMPS...
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY...
WITH SATURDAY NIGHT/S LOWS THEN RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SUNDAY WILL FEATURE ONE
MORE DAY OF FINE EARLY SUMMER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS OUT TO SEA...THOUGH
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR LEAST SOME
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER TIME. TEMPERATURE-WISE...A
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETTING UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RECOVER BACK TO THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREADING OUR REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...THOUGH THE
VARIOUS OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE PACKAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE
VARIANCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE
ELECTED TO LEAN TOWARD OUR CONTINUITY/WPC/THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR
THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...ALL OF WHICH SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER. AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST BY BROAD BRUSH LOWER-END
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RETURN
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
NAVIGATE AROUND THIS EVENING. ONE AREA WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH A SECOND AREA
SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST IN SOME FORM
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM GENERATION POSSIBLE
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BETWEEN SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES.
ON THURSDAY...SFC WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT...THOUGH LIKELY REMAINING SOUTHWEST ACROSS KART WHICH
WILL LIE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH 18Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY
EASTWARD. HOWEVER VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN AND ALLOW
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW...AND THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DO
NOT EXPECT STEADY WINDS AND WAVES TO MEET SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
THURSDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE FINE BOATING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030-042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
554 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE SECOND
OF THESE FRONTS WILL TEMPORARILY STALL OVER EASTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWER TEMPERATURES AND MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTS AS WE END THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WELL DEFINED LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WAS ILLUMINATED BY THE KBUF
RADAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NEAR KJHW TO
SOUTHERN WYOMING COUNTY WHERE ONE CAN EXTRAPOLATE IT TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL LIVINGSTON COUNTY. UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHEN
THE BOUNDARY WAS A HUNDRED MILES FURTHER EAST AND THE AIR IN ITS
WAKE WAS RELATIVELY STABLE...THE AIRMASS OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES AT 21Z WAS PRIMED WITH SBCAPES >1000 J/KG AND LI`S IN
THE VCNTY OF -4.
THIS AIRMASS WAS SUPPORTING A STRONG STORM ALONG THE
CATTARAUGUS/WYOMING COUNTY BORDER AT 2140Z...WITH SUGGESTIONS OF AN
ELEVATED CORE AND PLENTY OF SMALL HAIL ABV 10K FT. THIS CELL ALONG
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL DESERVE CLOSE ATTENTION. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EST OF THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH 23Z.
AFTER THAT TIME...A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO/WRN LAKE ERIE
WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED. THIS FEATURE COULD IGNITE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT ILL DEFINED SFC BASED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
FURTHER EAST...SIGNIFICANT DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY TO THE TUNE
OF SBCAPES OF 1500 J/KG WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING FROM UNDER THE RR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT H25 JET. THERE
IS CURRENTLY TSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO FROM THIS
SCENARIO...SO THERE WILL BE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN GOING FORWARD THE
NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS.
FOR THURSDAY...A SLOWING/STALLING COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE
GENESEE VALLEY TO BEGIN THE DAY. INSTABILITY IS NOT AS GREAT AS
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. WHILE THERE LIKELY
WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS FEEL THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL COME MORE FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THAN SEVERE WIND/HAIL.
REASONS FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD WILL BE THE
REGION FALLING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KNOT 250 HPA
JET STREAK EMANATING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS FAVORABLE LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL STORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. THIS MOISTURE FOLLOWING AN 850 HPA THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND
ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE COMBINED LIFT OF THE
JET STREAK/LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR DRENCHING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH A SSW-NNW
PROGRESSION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRAINING STORMS COULD BRING
LOCALLY POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. FOR NOW WILL MENTION THE HEAVY
RAINFALL MAKERS IN THE HWO PRODUCT...AS CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN AT THIS POINT REMAINS QUITE LOW.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE ACROSS THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS THAN LAST NIGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW UNDER COOLING 850 HPA
ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER WILL RANGE ACROSS THE 70S FOR OUR
AREA...WARMEST ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT/WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK WILL FINALLY GET SHUNTED EASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND BY A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND NORTH COUNTRY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...WHILE ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS. EVEN WITH THE PRECIP COMING
TO AN END THOUGH...DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN FARLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY
REACHES PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATE. TEMPERATURE-WISE...
A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BURGEONING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINES...WITH ITS EFFECTS REMAINING WELL EAST OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANY LINGERING EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE THESE MAY WIND UP BEING
REPLACED BY A DECENT AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CU. WITH THE INCREASING
SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN +8C AND +9C...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST PLACES...
THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIGHT NOT
MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER 60S. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY COMFORTABLE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
THEN MAKING FOR EQUALLY COMFORTABLE SLEEPING CONDITIONS ONCE THE
HOLIDAY CELEBRATIONS CONCLUDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT...THE FINE WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ALSO PERSISTING. IN TERMS OF ACTUAL TEMPS...
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY...
WITH SATURDAY NIGHT/S LOWS THEN RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SUNDAY WILL FEATURE ONE
MORE DAY OF FINE EARLY SUMMER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS OUT TO SEA...THOUGH
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR LEAST SOME
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER TIME. TEMPERATURE-WISE...A
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETTING UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RECOVER BACK TO THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREADING OUR REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...THOUGH THE
VARIOUS OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE PACKAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE
VARIANCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE
ELECTED TO LEAN TOWARD OUR CONTINUITY/WPC/THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR
THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...ALL OF WHICH SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER. AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST BY BROAD BRUSH LOWER-END
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RETURN
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
NAVIGATE AROUND THIS EVENING. ONE AREA WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH A SECOND AREA
SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST IN SOME FORM
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM GENERATION POSSIBLE
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BETWEEN SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES.
ON THURSDAY...SFC WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT...THOUGH LIKELY REMAINING SOUTHWEST ACROSS KART WHICH
WILL LIE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH 18Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY
EASTWARD. HOWEVER VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN AND ALLOW
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW...AND THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DO
NOT EXPECT STEADY WINDS AND WAVES TO MEET SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
THURSDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE FINE BOATING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030-042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
348 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS TONIGHT
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES BY
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH #384 CONTS FOR
NORTHERN NY INTO ALL OF VT THRU 2300 UTC THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
DIFFICULT DAY FOR PREDICTING CONVECTION WITH NO SVR YET ACRS OUR
CWA. HAVE NOTICED OUR SFC DWPTS HERE AT BTV HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
L60S...WHILE THE TEMPS HAS JUMPED TO 90F...MAYBE ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXING TO THE SFC. THINKING OVERALL THREAT
FOR SVR IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING ACRS OUR CWA...GIVEN ACTIVITY TO
OUR SOUTH.
LAPS SFC BASED CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS GREATEST INSTABILITY ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CPV...WITH
VALUES BTWN 1800 AND 2400 J/KG...BUT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE
ADVECTING AHEAD OF COMPLEX OF STORMS IN EASTERN NY. THIS IS HELPING
TO STABILIZE OUR CWA. THINKING OVERALL SVR WX THREAT WL BE
DIMINISHING ACRS OUR CWA...OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HRS...BUT WE WL HOLD
ONTO WATCH FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS. STILL NOTICING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT AFT 00Z ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT VORT AND
LEFTOVER INSTABILITY. LATEST 18Z HRRR IS SHOWING ENHANCED
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY DEVELOPING ACRS THE DACKS AND MOVING THRU
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z TONIGHT...WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY DECREASES AFT MIDNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF HZ/BR POSSIBLE TWD MORNING WITH CONTINUED MUGGY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WL CONTINUE
ACRS OUR CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH WATER VAPOR SHOWING NEXT POTENT
VORT DIVING ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THIS VORT WL TRACK FROM
THE MS VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WESTERN NY/PA BY 18Z THURS AND ACRS
NORTHERN NY ON THURS EVENING. THIS VORT COMBINED WITH RRQ OF 120
KNOT AND PLENTY OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE...WL PRODUCE A OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. GIVEN THE STRONG ULVL
DIVERGENCE...GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER STORMS WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES
CAN DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...PWS REMAIN BTWN 1.50 AND 1.75 OVER OUR
CWA...WITH NOSE OF 85H JET OF 25 TO 35 KNTS IMPACTING OUR EASTERN
CWA AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WL RANGE BTWN 0.50 WESTERN CWA
TO 1.50 IN THE HIGHER TRRN ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT BY 12Z FRIDAY.
BOTTOM LINE EXPECT A WET EVENING FOR CELEBRATION IN BTV ON THURS
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF EMBEDDED STORMS.
LATEST GFS/NAM SFC BASED CAPE PROGS SHOW VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG ACRS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
STRONGER STORMS...BUT PROBABLY NOT SVR. HAVE NOTED SPC DAY 2 HAS
SLIGHT RISK ACRS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHERE THE COMBINATION
OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND INCREASED WINDS
ALOFT WL KEEP TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE BENCHMARK. GIVEN THE CRNT TRACK EXPECTED BY NHC...ARTHUR WL HAVE
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA...MAYBE A SPOT SHOWER ON FRIDAY
ACRS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZNS. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLW AROUND BUILDING
SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WL FINALLY PUSH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. HAVE NOTICED 1000 TO 500MB
THICKNESS VALUES DROPPING BTWN 556 TO 560...SUGGESTING MUCH COOL AIR
ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE L70S MTNS TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLR SKIES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRES AND
TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETING BOTTOMING OUT
AND AREAS OF FOG FROM DEVELOPING. WL STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ATTM
AND NOT MENTION ANY FOG YET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FULL DISCLOSURE -- DUE TO THE
ONGOING SHORT TERM SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, I DID NOT SPEND A GREAT
DEAL OF TIME ON THE EXTENDED. USED AN ENSEMBLE OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE TO PLUG INTO THE DATABASE. DID QUICKLY EXAMINE THE 12Z
GFS & ECMWF, AND IT STILL LOOKED PRETTY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS
AND WHAT WE`VE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST. SO NET RESULT IS NO BIG
CHANGES. THE HIGHLIGHTS:
SATURDAY & SUNDAY: YET ANOTHER DRY WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
CASE. NOT SURE WHAT THAT STREAK IS, BUT I FOR ONE AM PLEASED WITH
IT. GFS IS STILL SHOWING SOME PRECIP NORTH OF THE BORDER ON SUNDAY
AND IS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH THAN THE 12Z EURO, SO I DID LEAN
TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION.
MONDAY & TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY...DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW GETS
ESTABLISHED AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW MEANS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS. MODELS
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS/SHORTWAVES/DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IN
THAT FLOW. EACH OF THESE SHOULD COMBINE WITH GENERAL DAYTIME
HEATING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. QUICK GLANCE DIDN`T SEEM LIKE ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE. GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE PATTERN, JUST STUCK WITH
THE GENERAL 30-40% CHANCE EACH DAY THAT GUIDANCE GAVE ME.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF TRICKY FORECASTS FOR THE
AREA AIRPORTS. IT`S ALL ABOUT WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND
WHERE DO THEY GO.
AT THIS POINT, THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DOWN IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THIS
RATE THEY SHOULD CLIP RUTLAND (RUT) ABOUT 20Z. HAVE THUS INCLUDED
A TEMPO FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE 20-23Z TIME FRAME.
ELSEWHERE THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE, THOUGH HAVE INCREASING FEELING THAT THEY
WILL REMAIN ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED VCTS FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS, THOUGH JUST A VCSH FOR OUT
IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR MASSENA (MSS) WHERE THE TREAT OF
T-STORMS IS THE LOWEST.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE WITH AROUND 00Z. COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER
OVERNIGHT, BUT AT THIS POINT THE CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS. HAVE PUT IN SOME MENTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
CEILINGS AND FOG IN OUR NORMALLY FOG PRONE SITES OF SLK AND MPV.
THIS IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDANT ON WHETHER OR NOT WE GET RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY, IT STARTS OUT VFR, THOUGH WE WILL AGAIN SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP CLOSER TO 18Z.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z MONDAY...VFR.
12Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE DISCONTINUED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
AS IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL ONLY TOP OUT ABOUT 20 KNOTS TODAY.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WE HAVE
HOISTED A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY. WE WILL EVALUATE WEATHER
TRENDS, AND DISCONTINUE THE ADVISORY WHEN THE THREAT DIMINISHES.
IF WE DO GET ANY THUNDERSTORMS, THEY WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN,
GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS AND OF COURSE DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
MARINE...NASH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
404 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
CORRESPONDINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT WILL BEAR DOWN ON THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE
TOLERABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH CAPE 1000-2000 AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KTS WHICH IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE STORMS AS
THEY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THE STORMS HAVE FORMED ON BOTH A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDING NORTH FROM CONVECTION IN OHIO.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FEEDING ON THE UNSTABLE AIR TO THE EAST. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHIFTS
THE STORMS EAST AND SOUTH OF SYRACUSE BY 08-10Z. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...SUPPORTED BY THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. WITH A STILL HUMID AIRMASS AND PWATS AROUND 1.25 -1.5
INCHES EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN FORM AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
LIFT WITH THE LIKELIEST AREAS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY
AND POINTS EASTWARD...WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOME ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...LEAVING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEARS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES A SHOWER MAY CLIP FAR NORTHERN NIAGARA
FRONTIER.
GIVEN THE DIURNALLY ASSISTED INSTABILITY OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
HAVE ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING (HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS) TO THE FORECAST.
IT WILL STILL BE ON THE HOT AND MUGGY SIDE WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
80S ACROSS THE REGION. ROCHESTER AND PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY
MAY REACH THE 90F MARK AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SEND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCY IN HOW THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH
INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TO HAVE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS...ALBEIT LOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT FINALLY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW YORK.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BURGEONING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE ARTHUR LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTLINES...WITH ITS
EFFECTS REMAINING WELL EAST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BEAUTIFUL INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY...WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE COMBINING WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +8C TO
+10C TO YIELD DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...THIS WILL RESULT IN
A VERY COMFORTABLE DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
THEN MAKING FOR EQUALLY COMFORTABLE SLEEPING CONDITIONS ONCE THE
HOLIDAY CELEBRATIONS CONCLUDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER...AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. EXPECT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...WITH THE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THEN
GRADUALLY MIXING IN ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES ALOFT.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...COMFORTABLE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ON SATURDAY WILL
CLIMB TO PLEASANTLY WARM LEVELS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY
AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETS UP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME THOUGH...HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS...WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY
SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE 50S.
LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREADING OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
GIVEN THE GENERAL INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...AND THAT THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...FOR
NOW HAVE ELECTED TO JUST COVER THE LATTER WITH BROADBRUSH LOWER-END
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF TSRA IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING. GENERALLY EXPECT THESE TO BE
POSSIBLE AT KJHW/KROC/KART THROUGH 06Z. KIAG IS CLEAR OF TSRA AND
KBUF WILL BE CLEAR BY 05Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE SRN TIER
BETWEEN ABOUT 08 AND 12Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME
WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES.
FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONT...THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL
FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE 2AM
THEN GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES ON BOTH LAKES WITH WAVES
AVERAGING 1 TO 3 FEET.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESHENING WINDS THAT COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THIS
WOULD BE ON LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF
ROCHESTER.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...JJR/TMA
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/SMITH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1241 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
CORRESPONDINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT WILL BEAR DOWN ON THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE
TOLERABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH CAPE 1000-2000 AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KTS WHICH IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE STORMS AS
THEY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THE STORMS HAVE FORMED ON BOTH A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDING NORTH FROM CONVECTION IN OHIO.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FEEDING ON THE UNSTABLE AIR TO THE EAST. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHIFTS
THE STORMS EAST AND SOUTH OF SYRACUSE BY 08-10Z. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...SUPPORTED BY THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. WITH A STILL HUMID AIRMASS AND PWATS AROUND 1.25 -1.5
INCHES EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN FORM AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
LIFT WITH THE LIKELIEST AREAS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY
AND POINTS EASTWARD...WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOME ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...LEAVING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEARS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES A SHOWER MAY CLIP FAR NORTHERN NIAGARA
FRONTIER.
GIVEN THE DIURNALLY ASSISTED INSTABILITY OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
HAVE ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING (HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS) TO THE FORECAST.
IT WILL STILL BE ON THE HOT AND MUGGY SIDE WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
80S ACROSS THE REGION. ROCHESTER AND PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY
MAY REACH THE 90F MARK AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY OOZING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS
FEATURE WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER TIME...THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND INCREASING NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION WARRANTS ONLY DIMINISHING CHANCE POPS AT THIS
PARTICULAR TIME. FURTHER WEST ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THE BULK
OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...THOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL STRAY
SHOWERS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. TEMPERATURE-WISE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL ALLOW NIGHTTIME LOWS
TO FALL BACK TO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE...MAKING FOR SOMEWHAT MORE
COMFORTABLE SLEEPING CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS.
ON THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...IN RESPONSE TO TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR
WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AND SYNOPTIC-
SCALE LIFT INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF A
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...
THIS LINGERING BOUNDARY SHOULD AGAIN ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE WILL BE FOUND ALONG OUR
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY...WHERE LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND WHERE SOME
LOW LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN PLACE...WHILE PROGRESSIVELY LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT. GIVEN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME WEAK INSTABILITY STEMMING FROM DAYTIME
HEATING...A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD TO LEWIS
COUNTY. ALL OF THIS WILL THEN QUICKLY WIND DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND HIGH PRESSURE/
DRIER AIR OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
TREND TOWARD COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...DEWPOINTS
WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BURGEONING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE ARTHUR LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE
OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTLINES...WITH ITS EFFECTS
REMAINING WELL EAST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A BEAUTIFUL INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY...WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE COMBINING WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +8C TO +10C TO
YIELD DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY
COMFORTABLE DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S THEN MAKING
FOR EQUALLY COMFORTABLE SLEEPING CONDITIONS ONCE THE HOLIDAY
CELEBRATIONS CONCLUDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER...AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. EXPECT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...WITH THE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THEN
GRADUALLY MIXING IN ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES ALOFT.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...COMFORTABLE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ON SATURDAY WILL
CLIMB TO PLEASANTLY WARM LEVELS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY
AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETS UP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME THOUGH...HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS...WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY
SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE 50S.
LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREADING OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
GIVEN THE GENERAL INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...AND THAT THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...FOR
NOW HAVE ELECTED TO JUST COVER THE LATTER WITH BROADBRUSH LOWER-END
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF TSRA IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING. GENERALLY EXPECT THESE TO BE
POSSIBLE AT KJHW/KROC/KART THROUGH 06Z. KIAG IS CLEAR OF TSRA AND
KBUF WILL BE CLEAR BY 05Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE SRN TIER
BETWEEN ABOUT 08 AND 12Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME
WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES.
FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONT...THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL
FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE 2AM
THEN GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES ON BOTH LAKES WITH WAVES
AVERAGING 1 TO 3 FEET.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESHENING WINDS THAT COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THIS
WOULD BE ON LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF
ROCHESTER.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/SMITH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
808 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HURRICAN ARTHUR WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE OUTER
BANKS FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...
CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN HURRICANE ARTHUR WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NC COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND AN
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR
THE NC MOUNTAINS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS ABOUT THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF ARTHUR.
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT STALLED JUST EAST
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A WEAK SURFACE WAVE LOCATED ON THE FRONT NEAR KHKY. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ARTHUR HAS MADE ITS ANTICIPATED NORTHEAST
TURN. LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THE BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BROKE OFF ARTHUR AFTER MIDDAY CONTINUES TO SPILL
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING PER RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS NEAR KEWN AND
KNCA.
RECEIVED MIXED SIGNALS FROM TRADITIONAL NWP AND CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS ABOUT THE PREFERRED PLACEMENT AND TRANSITION OF RAIN BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR. IN GENERAL THE HRRR AND THE NSSL ARW HAVE
HANDLED THIS SYSTEM WELL. THE GENERAL MESSAGE THEY ARE ADVERTISING
IS THAT THE RAIN DISK ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR WILL STAY EAST OF MOST
OF THE RAH CWA BUT IT WILL GRAZE ACROSS SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES
AND PARTS OF WILSON...EDGECOMBE AND PERHAPS CUMBERLAND COUNTIES.
THESE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN...GENERALLY
AROUND AN INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING MORE THAN AN INCH AND
A HALF. THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL DROP EAST AND MAY WORK INTO THE TRIAD LATER THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS BUT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED.
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
THE RAH CWA IN SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES WILL REQUIRE SOME
MONITORING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
ARTHUR REACHES CAPE HATTERAS AT AROUND 400 AM. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE TRIAD TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WITH SKIES BECOMING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON
FRIDAY. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IT
WIL BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER AND DRIER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. -BLAES &&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...AND ACCOMPANYING 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...WILL BUILD ESE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SAT...
THEN OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN. AFTERNOON SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S ON AVG...COMBINED WITH MILD TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE MIDDLE 80S...WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES. CALM AND RELATIVE CLEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF THE
LINGERING SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER NC...WITH PROJECTED LL THICKNESS
VALUES AROUND 1390 METERS...WILL SUPPORT LOWS SUN MORNING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES OR SO IN URBAN AREAS - THOUGH
SHY OF RECORDS FOR THE DATE (6TH) OF 53 DEGREES AT GSO AND 54
DEGREES AT RDU AND FAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY...IN DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE DEPARTING/ BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
TRENDING UP - BUT STILL IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE - WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM THURSDAY...
NC WILL BE IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN CANADA AND A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GOM. THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY BE HELD AT BAY TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC BENEATH THE LOWER HEIGHTS AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A PRONOUNCED LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH -
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUB-TROPICAL SURFACE RIDGING/THE BERMUDA
HIGH - OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE PERIOD WILL BE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK (TUE NIGHT-THU)...
WHEN BOTH 1) OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION TO THE NORTH/NEARER THE
SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE VA BORDER AND 2) NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE TAIL END OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC FLOW TO OUR NORTH COULD GRAZE CENTRAL NC.
THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IN THE MID
LEVELS...INVOF THE FL PENINSULA...IS A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH TO RESULT
IN EXTREME HEAT AT THE LATITUDE OF CENTRAL NC. AS SUCH...HIGHS WILL
LIKELY PEAK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR MOST. LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MULTIPLE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... POSSIBLY LASTING INTO
VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS AT KFAY...KRWI AND KRDU THROUGH AROUND 04-06Z (KRWI THE
LAST ONE TO SEE PRECIP MOVE OUT). ANOTHER ARE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT. EXPECT THIS LINE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... WE CLOUD
STILL SEE SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS SOME WIND GUSTS WITH
THE CONVECTION OF UP TO 25 KTS. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DISSIPATE/SHIFT EASTWARD BY 03Z OR SO.
PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION AND THEN GENERALLY IMPROVE INTO THE VFR RANGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION... AS
HURRICANE ARTHUR BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT... WE MAY SEE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS INCREASE WITH POSSIBLY SOME GUSTS OF UP 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROPICAL
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT... WITH VFR CONDITIONS. KRWI MAY EXPERIENCES
SOME LINGERING GUSTS AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM: IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR...FAIR WEATHER WITH NO ADVERSE AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. AN ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BSD/BLAES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1252 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK
WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE
MORNING CLOUD COVER FOR THOSE AREAS. ALSO...THE PATCHY FOG HAS
LIFTED. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING PATCHY FOG WORDING.
THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
A COOL START TO THE MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG OUT THERE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. KEPT A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG THROUGH 13 UTC. AREA OF VFR CLOUDS OVER THE WEST AND
ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTH FROM MANITOBA. THIS HAS BEEN HANDLED WELL
BY THE HRRR AND WAS ADDED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERALL A
LITTLE COOL FOR EARLY JULY BUT LESS WIND TODAY AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER SKY COVER/GRIDS
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA
WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. UPSTREAM...OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA...THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP IS SHOWING AN EXPANDING AREA
OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS BASED AT 5000FT-6000FT. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
THE 850MB-750MB LAYER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA APPEARS TO BE
THE MAIN DRIVER FOR VERTICAL MOTION AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE
NAM/GFS RH TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AS WELL AS THE HRRR CLOUD
BASE HEIGHT/CEILING FORECAST...ALL PAINT A SCT/BKN 5KFT STRATIFORM
CLOUD DECK FOR MOST OF THE WEST THIS MORNING. THIS TRANSITIONS TO
A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SIMILAR AREA
DEVELOPS OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY MID MORNING...THEN EXPANDS
SOUTHEAST JUST GRAZING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE HIGHEST
CLOUD COVERAGE...AND THUS A MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
HERE. PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WEST WILL BE THE GOING FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM CROSBY THIS MORNING INTO
JAMESTOWN BY 00Z THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE BE IN THE
70S TODAY. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT SCT CLOUDS WITH WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD THURSDAY WITH A MODERATE AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER CANADA
BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING OVER
THE TOP OF THE NOW FLATTENED RIDGE WHICH IS SITUATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THUS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 00 UTC WED 2 JULY GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATE A SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MUCAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA BY 00 UTC SATURDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK CAP HANGING ON BETWEEN 850
AND 700 MB AT KBIS AND KJMS FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
LIMITED CAPPING FROM KDIK AND KISN UP THROUGH KMOT. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON THE 4TH
GIVEN THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TEMPER SLIGHTLY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE OUR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT
WITH ANY STORM...BUT A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST
WEEKEND CREATED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORAGE AT BOTH ALAMEDA
DAM AND LAKE DARLING. RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM WILL INCREASE OVER
THE COMING DAYS...THUS INCREASING THE RELEASES DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE
DARLING. THIS...COMBINED WITH LOCAL RUNOFF...WILL CAUSE THE SOURIS
RIVER TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM
HYDROLOGY...KS/JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
905 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE
MORNING CLOUD COVER FOR THOSE AREAS. ALSO...THE PATCHY FOG HAS
LIFTED. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING PATCHY FOG WORDING.
THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
A COOL START TO THE MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG OUT THERE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. KEPT A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG THROUGH 13 UTC. AREA OF VFR CLOUDS OVER THE WEST AND
ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTH FROM MANITOBA. THIS HAS BEEN HANDLED WELL
BY THE HRRR AND WAS ADDED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERALL A
LITTLE COOL FOR EARLY JULY BUT LESS WIND TODAY AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER SKY COVER/GRIDS
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA
WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. UPSTREAM...OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA...THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP IS SHOWING AN EXPANDING AREA
OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS BASED AT 5000FT-6000FT. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
THE 850MB-750MB LAYER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA APPEARS TO BE
THE MAIN DRIVER FOR VERTICAL MOTION AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE
NAM/GFS RH TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AS WELL AS THE HRRR CLOUD
BASE HEIGHT/CEILING FORECAST...ALL PAINT A SCT/BKN 5KFT STRATIFORM
CLOUD DECK FOR MOST OF THE WEST THIS MORNING. THIS TRANSITIONS TO
A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SIMILAR AREA
DEVELOPS OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY MID MORNING...THEN EXPANDS
SOUTHEAST JUST GRAZING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE HIGHEST
CLOUD COVERAGE...AND THUS A MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
HERE. PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WEST WILL BE THE GOING FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM CROSBY THIS MORNING INTO
JAMESTOWN BY 00Z THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE BE IN THE
70S TODAY. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT SCT CLOUDS WITH WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD THURSDAY WITH A MODERATE AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER CANADA
BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING OVER
THE TOP OF THE NOW FLATTENED RIDGE WHICH IS SITUATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THUS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 00 UTC WED 2 JULY GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATE A SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MUCAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA BY 00 UTC SATURDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK CAP HANGING ON BETWEEN 850
AND 700 MB AT KBIS AND KJMS FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
LIMITED CAPPING FROM KDIK AND KISN UP THROUGH KMOT. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON THE 4TH
GIVEN THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TEMPER SLIGHTLY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE OUR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT
WITH ANY STORM...BUT A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR WITH SCT/BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN
5KFT-6KFT...ESPECIALLY AT KISN/KDIK. SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED AT
KBIS/KMOT/KJMS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY THEN BECOMING
SOUTHEAST AT 5KT TO 10KT AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST
WEEKEND CREATED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORAGE AT BOTH ALAMEDA
DAM AND LAKE DARLING. RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM WILL INCREASE OVER
THE COMING DAYS...THUS INCREASING THE RELEASES DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE
DARLING. THIS...COMBINED WITH LOCAL RUNOFF...WILL CAUSE THE SOURIS
RIVER TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...KS/JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
629 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
A COOL START TO THE MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG OUT THERE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. KEPT A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG THROUGH 13 UTC. AREA OF VFR CLOUDS OVER THE WEST AND
ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTH FROM MANITOBA. THIS HAS BEEN HANDLED WELL
BY THE HRRR AND WAS ADDED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERALL A
LITTLE COOL FOR EARLY JULY BUT LESS WIND TODAY AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER SKY COVER/GRIDS
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA
WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. UPSTREAM...OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA...THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP IS SHOWING AN EXPANDING AREA
OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS BASED AT 5000FT-6000FT. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
THE 850MB-750MB LAYER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA APPEARS TO BE
THE MAIN DRIVER FOR VERTICAL MOTION AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE
NAM/GFS RH TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AS WELL AS THE HRRR CLOUD
BASE HEIGHT/CEILING FORECAST...ALL PAINT A SCT/BKN 5KFT STRATIFORM
CLOUD DECK FOR MOST OF THE WEST THIS MORNING. THIS TRANSITIONS TO
A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SIMILAR AREA
DEVELOPS OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY MID MORNING...THEN EXPANDS
SOUTHEAST JUST GRAZING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE HIGHEST
CLOUD COVERAGE...AND THUS A MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
HERE. PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WEST WILL BE THE GOING FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM CROSBY THIS MORNING INTO
JAMESTOWN BY 00Z THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE BE IN THE
70S TODAY. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT SCT CLOUDS WITH WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD THURSDAY WITH A MODERATE AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER CANADA
BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING OVER
THE TOP OF THE NOW FLATTENED RIDGE WHICH IS SITUATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THUS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 00 UTC WED 2 JULY GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATE A SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MUCAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA BY 00 UTC SATURDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK CAP HANGING ON BETWEEN 850
AND 700 MB AT KBIS AND KJMS FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
LIMITED CAPPING FROM KDIK AND KISN UP THROUGH KMOT. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON THE 4TH
GIVEN THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TEMPER SLIGHTLY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE OUR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT
WITH ANY STORM...BUT A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR WITH SCT/BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN
5KFT-6KFT...ESPECIALLY AT KISN/KDIK. SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED AT
KBIS/KMOT/KJMS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY THEN BECOMING
SOUTHEAST AT 5KT TO 10KT AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST
WEEKEND CREATED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORAGE AT BOTH ALAMEDA
DAM AND LAKE DARLING. RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM WILL INCREASE OVER
THE COMING DAYS...THUS INCREASING THE RELEASES DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE
DARLING. THIS...COMBINED WITH LOCAL RUNOFF...WILL CAUSE THE SOURIS
RIVER TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...KS/JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER SKY COVER/GRIDS
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA
WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. UPSTREAM...OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA...THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP IS SHOWING AN EXPANDING AREA
OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS BASED AT 5000FT-6000FT. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
THE 850MB-750MB LAYER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA APPEARS TO BE
THE MAIN DRIVER FOR VERTICAL MOTION AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE
NAM/GFS RH TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AS WELL AS THE HRRR CLOUD
BASE HEIGHT/CEILING FORECAST...ALL PAINT A SCT/BKN 5KFT STRATIFORM
CLOUD DECK FOR MOST OF THE WEST THIS MORNING. THIS TRANSITIONS TO
A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SIMILAR AREA
DEVELOPS OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY MID MORNING...THEN EXPANDS
SOUTHEAST JUST GRAZING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE HIGHEST
CLOUD COVERAGE...AND THUS A MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
HERE. PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WEST WILL BE THE GOING FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM CROSBY THIS MORNING INTO
JAMESTOWN BY 00Z THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE BE IN THE
70S TODAY. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT SCT CLOUDS WITH WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD THURSDAY WITH A MODERATE AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER CANADA
BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING OVER
THE TOP OF THE NOW FLATTENED RIDGE WHICH IS SITUATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THUS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 00 UTC WED 2 JULY GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATE A SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MUCAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA BY 00 UTC SATURDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK CAP HANGING ON BETWEEN 850
AND 700 MB AT KBIS AND KJMS FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
LIMITED CAPPING FROM KDIK AND KISN UP THROUGH KMOT. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON THE 4TH
GIVEN THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TEMPER SLIGHTLY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE OUR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT
WITH ANY STORM...BUT A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR WITH SCT/BKN CLOUDS AT 5KFT...ESPECIALLY AT
KISN/KDIK. SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT 5KT TO 10KT AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST
WEEKEND CREATED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORAGE AT BOTH ALAMEDA
DAM AND LAKE DARLING. RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM WILL INCREASE OVER
THE COMING DAYS...THUS INCREASING THE RELEASES DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE
DARLING. THIS...COMBINED WITH LOCAL RUNOFF...WILL CAUSE THE SOURIS
RIVER TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...KS/JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
844 PM PDT THU JUL 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...STRATUS IN DOUGLAS COUNTY HAS FINALLY BURNED OFF
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO REFORM AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT. THE TREND IS FOR INLAND TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK A
FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER 100 FOR MEDFORD AROUND MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THE
TREND AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR UPDATE TO THE SKY GRIDS. /FB
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 04/00Z TAFS...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS COOS AND
DOUGLAS COUNTIES. THE MOST PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS WERE IN THE
UMPQUA VALLEY IMPACTING KRBG. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR
SOUTHERN COOS COUNTY AND FROM AROUND INTERSTATE 5 EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY. A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP LOW CLOUDS TO
REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR THERE WITH LOCALIZED
IFR BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SANDLER
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED THURSDAY 3 JULY 300 PM PDT...
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY AS A
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION AND WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS. THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES INLAND. STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING
SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MODELS SHOW 700MB WINDS INCREASING BETWEEN 25 AND
30 KTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEY SHOW
THE WINDS WEAKENING SOME LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT STILL
REMAINING ELEVATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS NEAR 600 MB ARE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND SOME OF THOSE STRONGER WINDS COULD MIX DOWN
NEAR THE SURFACE. AT THE SAME TIME, VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF INDEPENDENCE DAY FROM THE SHASTA VALLEY
AND UPPER KLAMATH BASIN EASTWARD. NEW STARTS FROM RECENT LIGHTNING
AND FIREWORKS WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE WE`LL REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR
PARTS OF FIRE ZONES 624, 625, 284 AND 285. AT THIS TIME WE`RE NOT
EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS TO LAST LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND SHASTA VALLEY. A HEAT
WAVE WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM
COULD AFFECT NORTHERN CAL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. /FB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM PDT THU JUL 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED, MARINE STRATUS HELD STRONG WELL INTO
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. AS
OF 2 PM, TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S AT ROSEBURG. CAN
SEE THE STRATUS ERODING AND BECOMING MORE OF A STRATOCUMULUS DECK
TO THE NORTH IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, SO EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR
FARTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON SUCH THAT SKIES TURN OUT PARTLY SUNNY
AT LEAST FOR AWHILE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
CAPPED IN MOST AREAS AND EXPECT THIS IS HOW THEY`LL STAY. HRRR AND
THE NAM12 ARE INDICATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING, PERHAPS
IN NORTHERN WASHOE, NORTHWEST HUMBOLDT OR SOUTHERN HARNEY COUNTY,
BUT SHOULD STAY OUT OF OUR PUBLIC ZONES.
WE`LL HAVE TO DEAL WITH ANOTHER MARINE PUSH TONIGHT, BUT THE
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOWER AND LIKELY WON`T EXTEND
AS FAR INLAND AS LAST NIGHT.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE EAST OF THE
CASCADES. IT`LL ALSO MIX DOWN SIGNFICANTLY DRY AIR. WINDS COMBINED
WITH LOW AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS RESULTED IN THE
ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SEE RFWMFR AND THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR THE SPECIFICS.
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR
HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EAST SIDE AREAS WILL GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S. A
STRONG RIDGE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT BASIN AND THIS WILL ALLOW
HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODEL 850 TEMPS REACH APPROXIMATELY 23-25C MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TO MANY
AREAS.
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WEST OF THE CASCADES
INTO MIDWEEK, BUT IT WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE CASCADES AND EASTWARD BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE
TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH, WHILE SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY INCREASES ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AT THIS POINT, IT`S STILL
EARLY TO SAY WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE WHERE AND WHEN THE BEST CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. BUT, AS IT STANDS, WE HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SPILDE
AVIATION...BASED ON THE 03/18Z TAFS...
MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY...WITH MOST
AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN NOT CLEARING OUT
UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN TO THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT...BUT INLAND SPREAD SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS THIS
MORNING. -BPN
MARINE...UPDATED THURSDAY 3 JULY 300 PM PDT...
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY AS A
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION AND WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS. THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES INLAND. STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING
SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RES
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ624-625.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ284-285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ356.
$$
FJB/MAP/RES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
625 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE INTERACTION OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ARTHUR
WILL SUPPORT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...WITH
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE
STATE. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL NOT BE IMPACTED BY ARTHUR
AS IT TRACKS FAR ENOUGH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE
ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BRING A VERY
COMFORTABLE AND DRY 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THREAT WANING ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AS MOST OF THE AREA HAS BEEN WORKED OVER BY EARLIER
CONVECTION. HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF WATCH 384. HOWEVER...A FEW
STRONG CELLS REMAIN OVR LANCASTER CO AT 22Z...SO WILL LET IT RIDE
THRU 7 PM DOWN THERE.
ALTHOUGH BLYR COOLING WILL LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL SVR WX
THREAT...CAN/T RULE OUT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL IN SCT TSRA THAT MAY
PERSIST THRU THE EVENING OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THIS REGION
WILL REMAIN WITHIN A PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS...WHERE RAP WARM
CLOUD DEPTH IS NEAR 4KM. EARLY EVENING VISIBLE IMAGERY IMPLIES A
MUCH MORE STABLE AIR MASS NORTH AND WEST OF HARRISBURG...WHERE
JUST A FEW FLAT CU NOTED AT 22Z. FOR THIS PORTION OF CENTRAL
PA...A DRY NIGHT APPEARS IN STORE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
WARREN CO. STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY LIES ALONG THE LK ERIE SHORE AND
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM NW OHIO...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SCT CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF THIS BNDRY TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MUGGY WITH PATCHY FOG. FOCUS
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO INTERACTION OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARTHUR...AND POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING MOD-HVY RAIN/PRE TYPE EVENT
INTO THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS QPF FAVORS THE SERN ZONES WITH
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOWER DEWPOINTS EXPECTED ON THU...BUT DYNAMICS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. WHILE THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS MAY TRACK WEST OF THE
CWA INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR LIKELY POPS
ON THU. MOST LIKELY TOO FAR NW FOR A PRE TYPE EVENT BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...BUT LEFT SOME
SHOWERS IN ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE AMOUNT OF CLDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SAT...GETTING CONCERN ABOUT HOW MUCH COOL AIR IS ADVECTED SE
ACROSS THE LAKES.
EXPECT A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY.
WENT WITH LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH ON MONDAY...THEN ALL
AREAS FOR TUE INTO WED...AS EC AND OTHER MODELS HINT AT A
WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LCL TSTM IMPACTS WITH SUB-MVFR VISBY RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE AFTN/EVE. TSTM CVRG SHOULD DECREASE AFT 00Z GIVEN LOSS OF
SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE IS IN FAVOR OF IFR OR LOWER
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/ST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURS...BUT HAVE
TRENDED TAFS MORE OPTIMISTICALLY /MAINLY MVFR VISBYS/ FOR NOW
GIVEN PERSISTENCE AND LOW CONFIDENCE. LATER ISSUANCE MAY NEED TO
ADJUST IF FOG/ST BECOME MORE PREVALENT. HUMID AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH THU. POTENTIAL REDUCTIONS IN FOG/HAZE EARLY SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO VFR...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS
PSBL DURING THE AFTN.
LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDS THU NIGHT WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUBL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
421 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE PASSING TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP A WEAK COLD FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2030 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN FEW CLOUDS. POP WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY...
WITH LESS COVERAGE EVERYWHERE BUR THE NORTHERN CLOUD RIDGE...WHERE
RADAR SHOWED CONVECTION DEVELOPING.
AS OF 215 PM...IN THE VERY NEAR TERM NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONSENSUS
AMONG THE MODELS IN REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE NCEP CAMS PLUS THE
NAM/RAP ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHILE
OUR LOCAL WRFS AND HRRR ONLY HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT BEST. WITH SBCAPES EXCEEDING 3000J/KG AND LITTLE CIN
NOTED...WILL LEAN TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE SOLUTIONS. SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PIEDMONT. WITH
DCAPES >1000J...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO PLAY OUT
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT BOTH THE GFS/NAM ENHANCE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
LEE TROUGH. THE MODELS SHOW SOME QPF RESPONSE SO WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE TYPE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
ON THU...AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVES OFF THE SC COAST...IT WILL
AS EXPECTED CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH AS WELL.
HENCE..WE EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
EASTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH
THE ARRIVAL THE FRONT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS TO PRODUCE MOST GRID
FIELDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WED...UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA FRI
PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SAT. AT THE
SFC...MILD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WX SYSTEMS FRI...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SLIDING TO NEAR THE VA/NC COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY SAT. EXPECT
DRY BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS FRI...WITH BREEZES POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
FRI NITE...AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FRONT AND APPROACHING HIGH. THERE
COULD EVEN BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRI AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. ANY LINGERING BREEZES WILL DIMINISH
SAT MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SFC HIGH. CANNOT RULE OUT MORNING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN...BUT DRY
FCST WILL CONTINUE. LOWS THU NITE AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. LOWS FRI NITE AND HIGHS SAT WILL DROP TO AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM WED...ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT LINGERS
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE SFC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WEAK FLOW
OUT OF THE SOUTH BOTH DAYS...POSSIBLE SUPPORTING MIN RH IN THE MID
40S. A BLEND OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90
EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION AROUND
H65. THE INVERSION SHOULD PROVIDE A CAP EAST OF THE MTNS...WEAKEST
OVER THE RIDGES. I WILL INDICATE SCHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES DURING
THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROF WILL RIPPLE
ACROSS THE MID WEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO MID LEVEL S/W MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTH
APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...LITTLE TO NO AFTERNOON CIN...AND SLIGHT GREATER WEST
STEERING FLOW MAY SUPPORT HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES...WITH MID
AFTERNOON CHC EAST. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE
TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS THE TIMING AND DURATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THE AIRFIELD. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH SUPPORTS STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT..
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE ONLY TRIGGER WILL BE FROM AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM UPSTREAM STORMS OVER THE FOOTHILLS. 12Z NAM AND LATEST
RAP DEVELOP CONVECTION CIRCA 00Z AT CLT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND
WILL HAVE A TEMPO TSRA FROM 23-03Z. SOME -SHRA COULD REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE STORMS. WILL ALSO BRING MVFR
CIGS OVER AIRFIELD TOWARD SUNRISE AS SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE
EASTERLY.
ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE
NC FOOTHILLS...BUT DEVELOP SE INTO UPSTATE SC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVNEING. HENCE WILL HAVE TEMPO FOR TSRA AT ALL AIRFIELDS EXCEPT
FOR KAND WHERE ONLY VCTS WILL BE CARRIED. STORMS SHOULD END THIS
EVENING BUT SCATTERED SHRA MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING. SOME
LIGHT FOG REDUCING VSBY`S TO 4-5SM IS EXPECTED AROUND SR ALONG WITH
SOME MVFR CIGS AT KHKY.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN THU AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS DRY HIGH
PRESSRUE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
HURRICANE ARTHUR. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL RETURN THE FRIST
OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MEANS SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 91% MED 78% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 87% MED 65%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 80%
KHKY HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 81% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 80%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
223 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE PASSING TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP A WEAK COLD FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM...IN THE VERY NEAR TERM NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONSENSUS
AMONG THE MODELS IN REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE NCEP CAMS PLUS THE
NAM/RAP ARE THE MOST AGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHILE
OUR LOCAL WRFS AND HRRR ONLY HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT BEST. WITH SBCAPES EXCEEDING 3000J/KG AND LITTLE CIN
NOTED...WILL LEAN TO THE MORE AGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE SOLUTIONS. SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO NUMOUERS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PIEDMONT. WITH
DCAPES >1000J...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO PLAY OUT
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT BOTH THE GFS/NAM ENHANCE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
LEE TROUGH. THE MODELS SHOW SOME QPF RESPONSE SO WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE TYPE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
ON THU...AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVES OFF THE SC COAST...IT WILL
AS EXPECTED CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH AS WELL.
HENCE..WE EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
EASTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH
THE ARRIVAL THE FRONT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS TO PRODUCE MOST GRID
FIELDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WED...UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA FRI
PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SAT. AT THE
SFC...MILD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WX SYSTEMS FRI...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SLIDING TO NEAR THE VA/NC COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY SAT. EXPECT
DRY BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS FRI...WITH BREEZES POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
FRI NITE...AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FRONT AND APPROACHING HIGH. THERE
COULD EVEN BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRI AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. ANY LINGERING BREEZES WILL DIMINISH
SAT MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SFC HIGH. CANNOT RULE OUT MORNING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN...BUT DRY
FCST WILL CONTINUE. LOWS THU NITE AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. LOWS FRI NITE AND HIGHS SAT WILL DROP TO AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM WED...ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT LINGERS
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE SFC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WEAK FLOW
OUT OF THE SOUTH BOTH DAYS...POSSIBLE SUPPORTING MIN RH IN THE MID
40S. A BLEND OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90
EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION AROUND
H65. THE INVERSION SHOULD PROVIDE A CAP EAST OF THE MTNS...WEAKEST
OVER THE RIDGES. I WILL INDICATE SCHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES DURING
THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROF WILL RIPPLE
ACROSS THE MID WEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO MID LEVEL S/W MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTH
APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...LITTLE TO NO AFTERNOON CIN...AND SLIGHT GREATER WEST
STEERING FLOW MAY SUPPORT HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES...WITH MID
AFTERNOON CHC EAST. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE
TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS THE TIMING AND DURATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THE AIRFIELD. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH SUPPORTS STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT..
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE ONLY TRIGGER WILL BE FROM AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM UPSTREAM STORMS OVER THE FOOTHILLS. 12Z NAM AND LATEST
RAP DEVELOP CONVECTION CIRCA 00Z AT CLT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND
WILL HAVE A TEMPO TSRA FROM 23-03Z. SOME -SHRA COULD REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE STORMS. WILL ALSO BRING MVFR
CIGS OVER AIRFIELD TOWARD SUNRISE AS SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE
EASTERLY.
ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE
NC FOOTHILLS...BUT DEVELOP SE INTO UPSTATE SC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVNEING. HENCE WILL HAVE TEMPO FOR TSRA AT ALL AIRFIELDS EXCEPT
FOR KAND WHERE ONLY VCTS WILL BE CARRIED. STORMS SHOULD END THIS
EVENING BUT SCATTERED SHRA MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING. SOME
LIGHT FOG REDUCING VSBY`S TO 4-5SM IS EXPECTED AROUND SR ALONG WITH
SOME MVFR CIGS AT KHKY.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN THU AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS DRY HIGH
PRESSRUE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
HURRICANE ARTHUR. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL RETURN THE FRIST
OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MEANS SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 91% HIGH 86%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 91% MED 73%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 93% HIGH 80%
KHKY HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 96% HIGH 84%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 88%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASING BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE SC
COASTLINE MID TO LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
FRIDAY...SWEEPING ARTHUR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM EDT UPDATE...LINE OF MCS CONVECTION TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AND WILL NOT WARRANT A POP UPGRADE ACROSS THE
WRN NC ZONES. SOME LLVL STCU IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A SFC CONVERGENCE
ZONE ACROSS THE SE/RN CWFA AND WILL MONITOR THIS FOR SKY/TEMP ADJ/S
AND POSSIBLE AVIATION CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...THE FCST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO T/TD GRIDS.
1015 PM UPDATE...FEW CHANGES EXCEPT FOR MINOR REVISIONS TO THE
OVERNIGHT SKY TRENDS AND TEMPS...THE LATTER INCORPORATING VALUES
FROM OUR SHORT-TERM MODEL CONSENSUS PRODUCT. DID INCREASE SKY COVER
SLIGHTLY IN THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE DEBRIS
FROM THE MCS MOVING THRU THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THIS MCS IS DIMINISHING
IN ORGANIZATION AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH STEAM TO AFFECT
OUR CWFA. AS SPC NOTED IN MCD 1250 ABOUT AN HOUR AGO...IT IS MOVING
INTO A MORE STABLE AREA AND AWAY FROM THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT. THE
00Z HRRR DOES DEVELOP A LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE MCS WHICH
MAKES A RUN AT THE SRN NC MTNS...BUT IT FADES UPON REACHING THEM.
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG RIDGES IN EAST TN. NOT SURE
IF THESE ARE WHAT THE HRRR IS RESOLVING BUT AT THIS TIME A DRY
OVERNIGHT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD IN LIGHT OF OTHER GUID.
730 PM UPDATE...DROPPED POPS THIS EVENING AS THE CU FIELD HAS MOSTLY
DWINDLED...WITH THE MESO MODELS THAT PRODUCE PRECIP STILL HAVING
FAILED TO VERIFY. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LLVL CONVERGENCE AND
MODEST MOISTURE IN THE SAME LAYER OVER THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
TONIGHT AND SOME OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS DEVELOP SHOWERS DUE TO
THESE CONDITIONS AND LINGERING INSTABILITY. ESP GIVEN THE POOR
PERFORMANCE THIS AFTN...IT DOES NOT SEEM PLAUSIBLE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
OVERNIGHT POPS IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME.
FOR TOMORROW...EXPECTATIONS ARE LARGELY THE SAME WITH UPWARDS OF
3000 J/KG SBCAPE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN PER 15Z SREF AND 18Z
NAM/GFS...WITH WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AS OUTLINED BY DAY SHIFT BELOW.
REVISED POP TRENDS MOSTLY TO BETTER HIGHLIGHT PROPAGATION FROM THE
MTNS TO THE PIEDMONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
AS OF 220 PM EDT TUESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD
IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A RATHER POTENT POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE
PARENT SURFACE LOW WHICH IS CURRENT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO.
EXPECTING THIS ENTIRE COMPLEX TO SLIDE EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE OHIO TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER UNEVENTFUL
OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN AND AROUND
THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER ACTIVE AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH A PREFRONTAL LEE TROF
DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AND THE
SURFACE RIDGE ERODES...SO WILL ANY INHIBITION TO CONVECTION.
GUIDANCE HAS COME TO A CONSENSUS REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BOTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW PLOTS INDICATE A POTENT WARM
SECTOR AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH 6-8 DEGREE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES YIELDING SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY...UPWARDS OF 3000J/KG ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT REGIONS OF NC AND SC. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
RATHER WEAK WHICH COULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY THAT WILL BE PRESENT
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DEEP UPDRAFTS LEADING TO LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THUS...WILL KEEP PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION IN HWO FOR THE ENTIRE REGION ON WEDNESDAY MENTIONING THE
ABOVE THREATS. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE LOW/MID
90S ACROSS THE LOW TERRAIN WITH MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS
PUSHING THE MID/UPPER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUE...AN UPPER TROF AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THU
THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRI. THE TROF WILL PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
INTO THE AREA THU THEN EAST OF THE AREA FRI. THIS TROF WILL ALSO
KEEP ARTHUR WELL EAST OF OUR CWFA NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE RESULTANT EXPECTED WEATHER...ESPECIALLY ON THU.
SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS MUCH OF THE AREA DRY WITH BEST INSTABILITY AND
PRECIP CHANCES NEAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR...WHILE OTHERS SHOW GOOD
INSTABILITY OVER ALL BUT THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND SWRN NC
MTNS. GUIDANCE BLEND FAVORS THE WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE SCENARIO...
SO HAVE GONE THAT DIRECTION FOR POP. CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE STORMS AS GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MID
LEVEL DRY AIR AND HIGH CAPE VALUES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE.
HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO BE OVER THE ERN CWFA. LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WED NITE AND NEAR NORMAL THU.
WITH THE TROF AXIS AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
FRI...DRY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. EVEN THO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH...LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS
MID LEVELS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...EXPECT A DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUE...FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES EXPANDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL KEEP POPS BELOW CLIMO AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE EDGE OF THE HIGH. PROFILES WILL MOISTEN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
TRIGGERS A SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW...SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES. WITH AN OTHERWISE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IN
PLACE AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...POPS WILL
FOLLOW A NORMAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL TREND EARLY IN THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...MODERATING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...MOISTURE LIMITED FEW STCU IS DEVELOPING IN THE VCNTY OF THE
TERMINAL ALIGNED IS A WEAK SFC CONV ZONE. NOT ENUF EXPECTED COVERAGE
TO WARRANT A TAF MENTION AND EARLY MORNING FG POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW.
PROB30 TSTMS LATER ARND 21Z WITH POSSIBLE COLD POOL MAINTAINED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH CAPE AND DECENT MLVL LR/S SOME
CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS AND LARGE
HAIL.
ELSEWHERE...KAVL WILL BE THE ONLY SITE TO WARRANT A FLIGHT
RESTRICTION FOR 5SM VSBY AFT 8Z. MOISTURE FLUX IS LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A WEAK SFC BNDRY INDUCED BY SE/LY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
GENERATE BLUE RIDGE CONVECTION IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ATMOS. THESE
STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND AFFECT MAINLY THE NC
SITES...HOWEVER THE UPSTATE MAY EXPERIENCE VCTS. SO...PROB30 TSTMS
OF WHICH SOME COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS ARND 18Z/19Z AT KHKY AND
KAVL.
OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. LIGHT
EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS FROM LOW STRATUS OR FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT SOME SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 97% HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 97% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VISIN
NEAR TERM...CDG/SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...VISIN
AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
324 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME HEAVY RAIN AND LOCAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS. THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS
BEGIN DRIFTING WEST OUT OF THE BORDERLAND FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL PERSIST TO CONTINUE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWING RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE
OVER THE CWA. BLENDED TPW SHOWS PW`S RANGING FROM .9" FAR NW TO 1.2"
SE. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN SHOWING
GRANT/SIERRA COUNTIES AS A HOT SPOT FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND
COMBINED WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY THERE YESTERDAY...INCREASED POPS IN
THAT AREA. HRRR EARLY RUNS THIS MORNING WERE ALSO SHOWING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF EL PASO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES...LIKELY FUELED
BY OUTFLOW COMING OFF THE SACS...BUT LATEST RUN LOOKS TO BE BACKING
OFF THAT THEME. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A CLOSE REPEAT OF TODAY AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES. MAIN IMPACTS OF STORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
APPEAR TO BE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING DUE TO SEASONALLY HIGH PW`S AND
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 45-55 MPH ALSO POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PATTERN OF REDUCED CONVECTION LOOKS TO
CONTINUE WITH THIS MORNING`S MODEL RUNS. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
SLOWLY DRIFTS WEST OF OUT THE AREA AS NORTHEAST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
THOUGH MODELS NOT SHOWING STRONG DRY CONTINENTAL
ADVECTION...MOISTURE DOES DECREASE. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PW`S
DECREASE TO ABOUT .7-.9" WHILE DEWPOINTS FALL FROM THE 45-55 DEG
RANGE TO 35-45 DEG. STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ISOLATED POP
CHANCES IN FOR EACH DAY...THOUGH MOUNTAINS AS USUAL WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AGAIN FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM BUT LATEST RUNS NOT REALLY
SHOWING THIS. KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN ALL AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 030000Z - 040000Z
MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO TONIGHT. SKY: FEW-SCT040-080 SCT-BKN 100-140 AND BKN200-250.
EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA UNTIL AROUND 06Z...THEN ISOLD SHRA. CIGS
SCT-BKN040-080 BKN-OVC100-140 IN AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA WITH VSBY AT
TIMES BELOW 1SM IN HEAVIER RAIN. WINDS GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AT 10-15KTS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT...DIMINISHING TO 5-10
KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. ANY STORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AND WARMER AIR
OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
GILA REGION AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE LOWLANDS THURSDAY
AND IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE OVER AREA MOUNTAINS. HAINES
INDICES GENERALLY LOW (3) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 75 94 76 95 74 / 30 20 30 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 72 92 73 93 69 / 20 20 20 0 10
LAS CRUCES 69 93 70 94 69 / 30 20 30 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 70 93 71 92 70 / 30 20 30 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 48 66 47 68 46 / 40 30 40 20 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 93 69 91 68 / 60 20 30 20 20
SILVER CITY 60 85 60 87 62 / 60 30 40 20 20
DEMING 69 93 70 92 69 / 40 30 30 10 10
LORDSBURG 68 92 69 92 68 / 60 40 40 20 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 94 75 94 73 / 30 20 30 0 10
DELL CITY 66 93 67 93 65 / 20 10 10 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 73 96 76 97 71 / 30 20 20 0 10
LOMA LINDA 68 87 69 90 67 / 30 20 30 0 10
FABENS 72 95 73 96 71 / 30 20 20 0 10
SANTA TERESA 71 93 71 95 70 / 30 20 30 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 94 72 95 71 / 40 20 30 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 65 94 66 94 65 / 40 20 30 0 10
HATCH 67 96 68 94 67 / 50 20 30 0 10
COLUMBUS 72 93 74 89 72 / 40 30 30 10 10
OROGRANDE 69 93 70 94 69 / 30 20 30 0 10
MAYHILL 57 78 57 78 56 / 40 30 40 20 20
MESCALERO 54 77 54 78 53 / 40 30 40 20 20
TIMBERON 53 74 53 76 52 / 40 30 40 20 20
WINSTON 63 85 60 86 61 / 60 40 50 20 30
HILLSBORO 69 91 70 93 68 / 60 30 30 10 20
SPACEPORT 68 93 69 92 68 / 60 20 30 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 58 85 59 87 56 / 60 40 50 30 20
HURLEY 62 88 63 87 61 / 60 40 40 20 20
CLIFF 54 89 52 88 52 / 60 40 40 20 20
MULE CREEK 53 86 50 88 49 / 60 40 40 20 20
FAYWOOD 66 89 67 94 65 / 60 30 30 20 20
ANIMAS 71 93 71 92 71 / 40 40 40 20 20
HACHITA 67 93 68 93 67 / 40 30 30 20 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 70 92 71 89 70 / 40 30 30 20 20
CLOVERDALE 64 86 65 87 63 / 50 40 40 20 20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
HEFNER/PARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1146 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
BETWEEN 5 AND 9 AM AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS MOST
LIKELY AT MORE RURAL TAF SITES.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT I DID NOT PUT THEM IN
TAFS BECAUSE MOST FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE
MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. 44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS WANED AND AM EXPECTING THE FEW REMAINING SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. COVERAGE WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN
FCST WITH SOME 2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS OVER PARTS OF HARRIS COUNTY
AND EVEN SOME PEA SIZE HAIL NEAR ELDRIDGE PKWY AND HWY 290. PW
VALUES ROSE TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES AROUND 21Z AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 90S WERE REACHED DURING THE AFTN. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH UPPER
WINDS AT CRP OUT OF THE NE. WINDS AT LCH WERE SW IN RESPONSE TO A
MID LATITUDE TROUGH PUSHING EAST. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WERE DIVERGENT
OVER SE TX AND THIS COUPLED WITH MODEST MSTR WAS ENOUGH TO GET
CONVECTION GOING LATE THIS AFTN.
AT 00Z...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH A
WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SE OK TO KSPS TO AN AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE BIG BEND. AT 850 MB...A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS NOTED
ALONG THE RED RIVER WITH A CORRIDOR OF DEEPER MSTR FROM NORTH
TEXAS TO THE DELMARVA AREA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NOTED OVER SE
TX WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING EAST.
THE UPPER FEATURES DON`T CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO
STILL EXPECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON WEDNESDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH MSTR WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT THE 18Z NAM AND GFS ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH MSTR WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO 1.83 INCHES
(GFS). THE HI RES ARW IS AGGRESSIVE WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
OVER EAST TEXAS AND THEN MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE HOUSTON AREA
DURING THE EVENING. THIS SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z GFS. THE
TEXAS TECH 3 KM WRF AND HRRR DID A GREAT JOB WITH TODAYS
CONVECTION BUT THE WRF HAS NOT COME IN AND THE HRRR DOES NOT GO
OUT FAR ENOUGH TO BE MUCH HELP. WILL AWAIT 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE
MAKING CHANGES BUT POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE A BIT HIGHER TOMORROW...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS FOR TONIGHT...DEW
PTS ARE VERY HIGH SO RAISED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO NEAR THE
COAST AND TWEAKED SKY GRIDS. WILL SEND OUT NEW ZONES ONCE THE
CONVECTION OVER GRIMES COUNTY DISSIPATES. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 95 75 94 74 / 10 10 20 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 77 94 76 95 76 / 10 10 20 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 89 79 90 79 / 10 10 20 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
231 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY ON THE EAST SIDE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE FRONT
WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
HURRICANE ARTHUR OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. DRIER AND COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...
MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FAILED
TO MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THANKS TO A SIGNIFICANT
WARM NOSE IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SIGNIFICANT
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED NORTH OF I-66 FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW
SHOWERS TRIED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN
CARROLL/FLOYD...BUT DISSIPATED QUICKLY WITH TOPS AOB 20KFT. SPOKE
WITH SPC...AND PLAN IS TO DROP SEVERE OUTLOOK WITH 01Z UPDATE.
CURRENT RISK IS VERY LOW ACCORDING TO SPC AS IT WAS BASED ON
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LACK OF
CU/DEVELOPMENT HAS PRECLUDED SEVERE THREAT. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY NOW IN KY/OH TO REACH WV TOWARD
DAYBREAK IN THE FORM OF DIMINISHING CONVECTION WITH A MINIMAL WIND
THREAT. GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WED
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH ALSO BETTER THREAT
FOR SEVERE AT THAT TIME AS WELL WITH AIR MASS STILL MODERATELY TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS/SHEAR ALSO IN PLACE AT
THAT TIME. WED STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
THE SEVERE/FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR OUR CWA.
MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO NEAR TERM TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...WITH DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ADVERTISED...BUT HEAT INDICES STILL MANAGEABLE AND ALL BELOW
100F.
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...
BOTH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE HAVE BEEN MAKING
THEIR WAY EASTWARD WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WE ARE
EXPECTING THE DEVELOPMENT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE AMPLE...PARCELS WILL BE FIGHTING
A WARM NOSE JUST ABOVE 700 MB. HOWEVER...ONCE PENETRATED...THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF CAPE TO WORK WITH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION. CURRENTLY...SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
HAS STARTED JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SAME IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SOON OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH A FOCUS OF ACTIVITY ALONG
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
A CHALLENGE FOR THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER HEADING SOUTH INTO
THE AREA...FOLLOWING THE OUTFLOW DENSITY CURRENT OF ONGOING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. THE 16Z/NOON HRRR MODEL IS OFFERING A
SOLUTION THAT EXPANDS CONVECTION NEAR PA/MD/WV INTO A THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER THAT HEADS QUICKLY SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
IMPACTS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION AROUND SUNSET...AND THEN
CONTINUES SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH 100 AM
WEDNESDAY. CURIOUSLY ENOUGH...THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MODEL
HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH THIS POTENTIAL EVOLUTION BASED UPON
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT THE
OPERATIONAL NAM ALSO GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO THIS SOLUTION...WILL BE
REFLECT THIS EVENT IN OUR FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE AT THIS POINT.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DRAW
CLOSER TO THE AREA AND PROVIDE FOR GREATER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION AS COMPARED TO THE SCENARIO TODAY. SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF BUCKINGHAM COUNTY VA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SPC INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY2
OUTLOOK. VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG HEATING LEADING TO 2000-3000 J/KG
MLCAPE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH STRONGER
UPDRAFTS DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
DECENT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING MODERATE SHEAR AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SUPPORT THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS. THE OTHER
CONCERN IS THAT THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE CLOSE TO A HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN BUCKINGHAM COUNTY. THE COVERAGE IS TOO LIMITED IN AREA
AND TIME FOR ANY HEAT HEADLINES. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY WITH CONVECTION. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
ON THURSDAY...OUR AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A SECOND EJECTING SHORT
WAVE FROM THE MIDWEST TROUGH AND TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVING
NORTHEAST UP CAROLINA COAST. WHILE TROPICAL STORM ITSELF DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY TO GIVE US DIRECT IMPACT BASED ON CURRENT CONSENSUS
TRACKS...THE ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT AND
MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITH
CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY NEED FOR FLASH FLOOD
HEADLINES WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL FORECASTED TO OUR NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...ANY TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING
ISSUES. WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ADJMETBC HIGHS THURSDAY WITH
VALUES FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY...ARTHUR WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
AND BE LOCATED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE BLACKSBURG CWA...BUT WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE PIEDMONT AREAS FOR LINGERING HEAVY
RAINFALL...AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS POINT DESPITE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. NHC TRACK IS CLOSER TO GFS INSTEAD OF THE SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION. IN ANY CASE...HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST UNTIL 06Z
FRIDAY. LEANED LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ADJMAVBC FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE
EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE AS IT
TRACKS NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR THE EAST COAST DURING THE PERIOD.
CONSULT NHC PRODUCTS FOR THE LATEST INFO REGARDING T.S. ARTHUR.
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY AND REACHES THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DECREASED POPS FRIDAY MORNING GOING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PLAYED
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER
80S IN THE EAST. A PLEASANT FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL PRODUCE A DELIGHTFUL SATURDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...SOME RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO HIGHS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
WEST. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.
WITH DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE...MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH READINGS
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE
PIEDMONT ON MONDAY TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE EAST TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. ANY IMPACT WOULD BE
TO KBLF...KLWB...AND AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE MTNS AND THE OUTFLOW
DISSIPATES.
SCT-BKN MID DECK EXPECTED THIS MORNING...BASES 060-080KFT...
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD
THIN MID TO LATE MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING RESULTS IN CU
FORMATION LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO-TENN VALLEYS
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND...HEAT...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITIES...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VCNTY OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH WIND CONVERGENCE THERE. WIND AND HAIL
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON TIMING...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL
TAF SITES ATTM...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO LATE IN THE DAY. MEAN WIND
TODAY IS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...SO STORMS WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEAST...FROM 240 DEGREES AT BETWEEN 15-20 MPH.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE ADVANCING FRONT AND TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS ARE LOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK
OF ARTHUR.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/RAB
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
301 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 50 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. WILL ALSO
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. LOOKING AT THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. WHILE
THIS IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED WITH THE SHORT
NIGHTS...THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME WEAK FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 3 KFT. THE
GFS SHOWS WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH THIS LAYER AND DOES NOT
SATURATE AT THE SURFACE. THE SREF MEAN FORECAST SOUNDINGS COME
VERY CLOSE TO SATURATING. ANY PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS LATE
TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE ONSET
OF SURFACE HEATING. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A PRETTY QUIET DAY ACROSS
THE REGION. KEEPING AN EYE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH BASED FLAT CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. AGAIN WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL. THE HIGH THEN STARTS TO SLIDE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THE WEATHER IS LOOKING RATHER PLEASANT FOR THE FOURTH OF
JULY WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO WE SHOULD SEE GOOD WEATHER
FOR THE FIRE WORKS DISPLAYS FRIDAY EVENING. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE ECWMF/CANADIAN/NAM80 ARE ALL SPLITTING PRECIPITATION AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/LAKE SUPERIOR AND ANOTHER WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA. THE GFS IS THE ONLY GUIDANCE THATS
GENERATING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY. A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WHILE THE SHEAR ISN/T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...WE ARE STILL
LOOKING AT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 45 KTS ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. IN ADDITION...WARM CLOUD DEPTH CLIMBS INTO
THE 3.5 TO 4.0 KM RANGE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE. THE STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS AND MAY ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LARGE
HAIL AND MAYBE DAMAGING WINDS. SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT FOR LATE
IN THE WEEKEND BUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING IS LOOKING
LIKE THE MOST IMPACTFUL PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON. ALSO...SUNDAY
WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEK
WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
VISIBLE SATELLITE LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE CLOUD DECK OVER THE
AREA CONTINUES TO WORK STEADILY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR FOR THE MOST PART BUT ARE STARTING TO INCREASE TO VFR. BASED
ON TIMING AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE 02.15Z RAP AND 02.12Z
NAM...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO START MOVING PAST KRST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT HANG ON AT KLSE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. THE NAM SUGGESTS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT KLSE
AS IT SATURATES THE SURFACE. THE RAP ONLY GOES OUT TO ABOUT
03.08Z RIGHT NOW BUT SHOWS A LARGE SURFACE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD
AND THE 02.06Z GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SATURATE OVERNIGHT. THE
02.09Z SREF MEAN SOUNDING ALSO DOES NOT SATURATE BUT DOES COME
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF DOING SO. THE NAM CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE
TOO MOIST WITH THE LOW LEVELS SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
NOT MUCH THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LA CROSSE NORTH
TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. MEANWHILE THE FLOOD CREST ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH OF
LA CROSSE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.
AUSTIN MN - 43 IN 1940
CHARLES CITY IA - 45 IN 1967
DECORAH IA - 41 IN 1924
LA CROSSE WI - 49 IN 1968
MEDFORD WI - 37 IN 1927
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI - 45 IN 1968
RICHLAND CENTER WI - 43 IN 1995
ROCHESTER MN - 44 IN 1917
SPARTA WI - 40 IN 1968
WINONA MN - 49 IN 1995
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
CLIMATE...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1207 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM GREEN BAY TO SIOUX FALLS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS FRONT WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE
RUNNING AROUND 4C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2 TO 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF. CURRENTLY
ABUNDANT CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION IS HELPING TO KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY COULD BE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. STRONG
OMEGA BELOW 850 MB IS HELPING GENERATING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TODAY...THE 02.00Z MODELS ARE GOOD IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOUT 1 TO 2C. HOWEVER
THIS IS STILL 1.5 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN BOTH
THE NAM AND ECMWF. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 900 TO 800 MB RANGE AND ML CAPES OF
LESS THAN 100 J/KG. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG
LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE TODAY. THE LATEST RAP HAS THE BEST LAYER
STRETCHING POTENTIAL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SO THINKING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR
FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE THERE. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND COLD AIR ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...
THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
REACHED OR EXCEEDED. MORE ON THIS WILL BE COVERED IN THE
CLIMATOLOGY SECTION OF THIS PRODUCT.
FOR TONIGHT...850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 1 TO 2 DEGREES.
THIS STILL RESULTS 850 TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET AND KEEPING THE
WINDS WELL MIXED ABOVE THE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER...THERE WILL BE NO SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER AND SHORT NIGHT MAY HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT RECORD LOWS FROM
OCCURRING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
ON THURSDAY...WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE VERY STEEP 900 TO 750 MB
LAPSE RATES. USUALLY THIS WOULD BE A CONCERN FOR STRONGER WIND
GUSTS...BUT IN THE CASE THE WINDS ALOFT ARE RATHER LIGHT BELOW
700 MB...SO ONLY EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH
RANGE. THE MAIN THING THAT THE MIXING WILL DO IS BRING DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. SINCE MOS TYPICALLY DOES NOT DO WELL IN
THESE SITUATIONS USED THE MIX DOWN TOOL TO LOWER THE DEW POINTS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 40S WHICH IS VERY DRY FOR EARLY JULY.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP LAYER /UP TO 700 MB/ OF
LIGHT WINDS. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS. BOTH CLIMATOLOGY AND MOS DEW POINT SPREADS WOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRENCE IN THE WISCONSIN AND
KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE 925 MB AND
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THUS KEPT THE EVENING DRY. WITH ARTHUR MOVING UP THE
COAST AT THIS TIME...THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE RIDGING TO THE
WEST OF THIS SYSTEM MAY SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS THE REASON WHY BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
TIMING OF THESE WAVES ARE PROBLEMATIC AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...THERE CONTINUE TO BE AN INDICATION IN THE
MODELS THAT THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 12C FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT DOES FORM TO BE ELEVATED...THUS...WE ARE NOT ABLE TO TAP INTO
THE BETTER 0-3 KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL DESPITE THE LACK OF
SUPERCELL SHEAR. AS WE MOVE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BOTH
THE WARM CLOUD LAYER AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO FOCUS IT INTO A PARTICULAR AREA WHICH
WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
VISIBLE SATELLITE LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE CLOUD DECK OVER THE
AREA CONTINUES TO WORK STEADILY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR FOR THE MOST PART BUT ARE STARTING TO INCREASE TO VFR. BASED
ON TIMING AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE 02.15Z RAP AND 02.12Z
NAM...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO START MOVING PAST KRST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT HANG ON AT KLSE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. THE NAM SUGGESTS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT KLSE
AS IT SATURATES THE SURFACE. THE RAP ONLY GOES OUT TO ABOUT
03.08Z RIGHT NOW BUT SHOWS A LARGE SURFACE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD
AND THE 02.06Z GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SATURATE OVERNIGHT. THE
02.09Z SREF MEAN SOUNDING ALSO DOES NOT SATURATE BUT DOES COME
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF DOING SO. THE NAM CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE
TOO MOIST WITH THE LOW LEVELS SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
NOT MUCH THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LA CROSSE NORTH
TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. MEANWHILE THE FLOOD CREST ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH OF
LA CROSSE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
HERE ARE THE RECORD COLD MAXIMUM FOR TODAY.
AUSTIN MN - 68 IN 1945
CHARLES CITY IA - 67 IN 1917
DECORAH IA - 71 IN 2001
LA CROSSE - 63 IN 1892
MEDFORD WI - 61 IN 2009
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI - 67 IN 2009
RICHLAND CENTER WI - 64 IN 2009
ROCHESTER MN - 62 IN 1892
SPARTA WI - 64 IN 2009
WINONA MN - 65 IN 2009
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.
AUSTIN MN - 43 IN 1940
CHARLES CITY IA - 45 IN 1967
DECORAH IA - 41 IN 1924
LA CROSSE WI - 49 IN 1968
MEDFORD WI - 37 IN 1927
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI - 45 IN 1968
RICHLAND CENTER WI - 43 IN 1995
ROCHESTER MN - 44 IN 1917
SPARTA WI - 40 IN 1968
WINONA MN - 49 IN 1995
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
CLIMATE...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM GREEN BAY TO SIOUX FALLS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS FRONT WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE
RUNNING AROUND 4C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2 TO 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF. CURRENTLY
ABUNDANT CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION IS HELPING TO KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY COULD BE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. STRONG
OMEGA BELOW 850 MB IS HELPING GENERATING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TODAY...THE 02.00Z MODELS ARE GOOD IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOUT 1 TO 2C. HOWEVER
THIS IS STILL 1.5 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN BOTH
THE NAM AND ECMWF. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 900 TO 800 MB RANGE AND ML CAPES OF
LESS THAN 100 J/KG. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG
LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE TODAY. THE LATEST RAP HAS THE BEST LAYER
STRETCHING POTENTIAL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SO THINKING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR
FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE THERE. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND COLD AIR ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...
THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
REACHED OR EXCEEDED. MORE ON THIS WILL BE COVERED IN THE
CLIMATOLOGY SECTION OF THIS PRODUCT.
FOR TONIGHT...850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 1 TO 2 DEGREES.
THIS STILL RESULTS 850 TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET AND KEEPING THE
WINDS WELL MIXED ABOVE THE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER...THERE WILL BE NO SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER AND SHORT NIGHT MAY HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT RECORD LOWS FROM
OCCURRING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
ON THURSDAY...WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE VERY STEEP 900 TO 750 MB
LAPSE RATES. USUALLY THIS WOULD BE A CONCERN FOR STRONGER WIND
GUSTS...BUT IN THE CASE THE WINDS ALOFT ARE RATHER LIGHT BELOW
700 MB...SO ONLY EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH
RANGE. THE MAIN THING THAT THE MIXING WILL DO IS BRING DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. SINCE MOS TYPICALLY DOES NOT DO WELL IN
THESE SITUATIONS USED THE MIX DOWN TOOL TO LOWER THE DEW POINTS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 40S WHICH IS VERY DRY FOR EARLY JULY.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP LAYER /UP TO 700 MB/ OF
LIGHT WINDS. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS. BOTH CLIMATOLOGY AND MOS DEW POINT SPREADS WOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRENCE IN THE WISCONSIN AND
KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE 925 MB AND
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THUS KEPT THE EVENING DRY. WITH ARTHUR MOVING UP THE
COAST AT THIS TIME...THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE RIDGING TO THE
WEST OF THIS SYSTEM MAY SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS THE REASON WHY BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
TIMING OF THESE WAVES ARE PROBLEMATIC AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...THERE CONTINUE TO BE AN INDICATION IN THE
MODELS THAT THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 12C FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT DOES FORM TO BE ELEVATED...THUS...WE ARE NOT ABLE TO TAP INTO
THE BETTER 0-3 KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL DESPITE THE LACK OF
SUPERCELL SHEAR. AS WE MOVE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BOTH
THE WARM CLOUD LAYER AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO FOCUS IT INTO A PARTICULAR AREA WHICH
WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON HOW LONG THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL HOLD ON FOR
ALONG WITH WHETHER ANY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME
SPORADIC SHOWERS. CEILINGS ARE HANGING ON TO AROUND 2-3KFT AND
SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT THIS EVENING AND WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP. SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BE HANGING ON AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE MAY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THERE TO NOT PUT ANY FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
NOT MUCH THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LA CROSSE NORTH
TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. MEANWHILE THE FLOOD CREST ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH OF
LA CROSSE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
HERE ARE THE RECORD COLD MAXIMUM FOR TODAY.
AUSTIN MN - 68 IN 1945
CHARLES CITY IA - 67 IN 1917
DECORAH IA - 71 IN 2001
LA CROSSE - 63 IN 1892
MEDFORD WI - 61 IN 2009
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI - 67 IN 2009
RICHLAND CENTER WI - 64 IN 2009
ROCHESTER MN - 62 IN 1892
SPARTA WI - 64 IN 2009
WINONA MN - 65 IN 2009
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.
AUSTIN MN - 43 IN 1940
CHARLES CITY IA - 45 IN 1967
DECORAH IA - 41 IN 1924
LA CROSSE WI - 49 IN 1968
MEDFORD WI - 37 IN 1927
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI - 45 IN 1968
RICHLAND CENTER WI - 43 IN 1995
ROCHESTER MN - 44 IN 1917
SPARTA WI - 40 IN 1968
WINONA MN - 49 IN 1995
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
CLIMATE...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
355 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM GREEN BAY TO SIOUX FALLS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS FRONT WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE
RUNNING AROUND 4C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2 TO 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF. CURRENTLY
ABUNDANT CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION IS HELPING TO KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY COULD BE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. STRONG
OMEGA BELOW 850 MB IS HELPING GENERATING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TODAY...THE 02.00Z MODELS ARE GOOD IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOUT 1 TO 2C. HOWEVER
THIS IS STILL 1.5 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN BOTH
THE NAM AND ECMWF. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 900 TO 800 MB RANGE AND ML CAPES OF
LESS THAN 100 J/KG. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG
LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE TODAY. THE LATEST RAP HAS THE BEST LAYER
STRETCHING POTENTIAL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SO THINKING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR
FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE THERE. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND COLD AIR ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...
THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
REACHED OR EXCEEDED. MORE ON THIS WILL BE COVERED IN THE
CLIMATOLOGY SECTION OF THIS PRODUCT.
FOR TONIGHT...850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 1 TO 2 DEGREES.
THIS STILL RESULTS 850 TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET AND KEEPING THE
WINDS WELL MIXED ABOVE THE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER...THERE WILL BE NO SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER AND SHORT NIGHT MAY HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT RECORD LOWS FROM
OCCURRING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
ON THURSDAY...WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE VERY STEEP 900 TO 750 MB
LAPSE RATES. USUALLY THIS WOULD BE A CONCERN FOR STRONGER WIND
GUSTS...BUT IN THE CASE THE WINDS ALOFT ARE RATHER LIGHT BELOW
700 MB...SO ONLY EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH
RANGE. THE MAIN THING THAT THE MIXING WILL DO IS BRING DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. SINCE MOS TYPICALLY DOES NOT DO WELL IN
THESE SITUATIONS USED THE MIX DOWN TOOL TO LOWER THE DEW POINTS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 40S WHICH IS VERY DRY FOR EARLY JULY.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP LAYER /UP TO 700 MB/ OF
LIGHT WINDS. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS. BOTH CLIMATOLOGY AND MOS DEW POINT SPREADS WOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRENCE IN THE WISCONSIN AND
KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE 925 MB AND
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THUS KEPT THE EVENING DRY. WITH ARTHUR MOVING UP THE
COAST AT THIS TIME...THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE RIDGING TO THE
WEST OF THIS SYSTEM MAY SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS THE REASON WHY BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
TIMING OF THESE WAVES ARE PROBLEMATIC AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...THERE CONTINUE TO BE AN INDICATION IN THE
MODELS THAT THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 12C FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT DOES FORM TO BE ELEVATED...THUS...WE ARE NOT ABLE TO TAP INTO
THE BETTER 0-3 KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL DESPITE THE LACK OF
SUPERCELL SHEAR. AS WE MOVE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BOTH
THE WARM CLOUD LAYER AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO FOCUS IT INTO A PARTICULAR AREA WHICH
WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IS IF/WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN FOR
KRST/KLSE...POTENTIAL FOR IFR...AND THEN WHEN THEY WILL LIFT.
SREF CIG PROBS CONTINUE TO POINT TO SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR CIGS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT-MORNING HOURS...WITH LATEST SATELLITE AND SFC OBS
SUPPORTING THIS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IFR CIGS AT THIS TIME
THOUGH...AND UNSURE WHETHER THESE WILL BE REALIZED AT KRST. MAY HANG
ONTO THE MENTION FOR NOW...WITH TRENDS LEADING TO UPDATES IF NEEDED.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS START TO BRING SOME MIXING IN TOWARD LATE
MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE A CLIMB AND SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOW CIGS
DURING THAT TIME. PROBABLY A FEW HOUR PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS BEFORE
SCT/SKC CONDITIONS FOR MID/LATER AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT. WITH A
LIGHT WIND FIELD AND CLEAR SKIES WED/THU NIGHTS...SEE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR BR/FG...PROBABLY MORE SO FOR THE VALLEY LOCATION OF KLSE.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY ITS NOT A THE FAVORED TIME OF YEAR...BUT WITH
GROUNDS WELL SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...ITS SOMETHING THAT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
NOT MUCH THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LA CROSSE NORTH
TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. MEANWHILE THE FLOOD CREST ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH OF
LA CROSSE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
HERE ARE THE RECORD COLD MAXIMUM FOR TODAY.
AUSTIN MN - 68 IN 1945
CHARLES CITY IA - 67 IN 1917
DECORAH IA - 71 IN 2001
LA CROSSE - 63 IN 1892
MEDFORD WI - 61 IN 2009
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI - 67 IN 2009
RICHLAND CENTER WI - 64 IN 2009
ROCHESTER MN - 62 IN 1892
SPARTA WI - 64 IN 2009
WINONA MN - 65 IN 2009
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.
AUSTIN MN - 43 IN 1940
CHARLES CITY IA - 45 IN 1967
DECORAH IA - 41 IN 1924
LA CROSSE WI - 49 IN 1968
MEDFORD WI - 37 IN 1927
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI - 45 IN 1968
RICHLAND CENTER WI - 43 IN 1995
ROCHESTER MN - 44 IN 1917
SPARTA WI - 40 IN 1968
WINONA MN - 49 IN 1995
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
CLIMATE...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
235 AM MST FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...BUSY THUNDERSTORM DAY WITH ORGANIZED OUTFLOWS AND DUST
ISSUES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOTS OF DEBRIS LEFT
OVER. WE WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR OUT AND SOLAR INSOLATION WILL BE
INITIALLY LACKING FROM TUCSON WESTWARD TODAY. IN ADDITION...MORNING
SHOWERS WILL TEND TO SLOW ANY CONVECTIVE TRENDS FROM TUCSON WESTWARD
CONSIDERABLY TODAY. WITH CLEARING IN THE EAST FIRST WE WILL SEE THE
BEST HEATING EAST AND SOUTH FIRST...THEN RELY ON OUTFLOWS TO SPREAD
ACTIVITY BACK INTO THE TUCSON AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING (AFTER THE INITIAL MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY). DAYTIME HIGHS
KNOCKED BACK AS WELL WITH SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS THERE. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES SHOWING SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH
1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES A BIT MORE.
HIGH CONSOLIDATED NORTH OF OUR AREA NOW WITH INVERTED IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND TO ENHANCE OUR CONVECTION INTO EARLY WEEKEND. BY
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THIS FEATURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
WITH THE EMPHASIS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHIFTING WITH IT. WE WILL
PROBABLY STILL BE ON THE BUSY SIDE SATURDAY...BUT DOWN A LITTLE
SUNDAY WITH A COMBINATION OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE IMPULSE AND
A FAIRLY WORKED-OVER ATMOSPHERE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE POSITION DEEPER INTO
THE GREAT BASIN NORTHWEST OF US...BUT ECMWF FEATURING ANOTHER
IMPULSE TO FOCUS CONVECTION FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY TUESDAY. WE
WILL RAMP THINGS UP ACCORDINGLY AFTER A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. DEFAULT IS A BLEND OF NAMDNG5 AND ECMWF...WITH CAREFUL
CONSIDERATION FOR HRRR AND VARIOUS WRF ITERATIONS. WELCOME TO THE
MONSOON!
&&
.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS...WITH DECKS AROUND 8-14KFT
AGL...THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUD COVER
DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUN TO WORK ON MOIST ATMOSPHERE. SO STILL
LOOKING AT SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS NEAR +TSRA. OTHERWISE
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STILL
LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/GLUECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
140 AM MST FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
HUMIDITIES...AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
QUITE AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS WIDESPREAD
BLOWING DUST AFFECTED THE PHOENIX METRO AREA. COLLIDING BOUNDARIES
OVER THE METRO AROUND 03Z ALLOWED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO BE
UTILIZED AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PHOENIX AREA SAW MEASURABLE
PRECIP /SOME SPOTS SAW NEARLY AN INCH OF RAINFALL/. ELEVATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN MARICOPA/YUMA/LA PAZ
COUNTIES AS OF 08Z...WITH A SECONDARY CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH PIMA COUNTY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
THERE ARE STILL A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH IN THESE AREAS BUT SURFACE INHIBITION HAS INCREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...I EXPECT THAT WE ARE GOING TO
SEE THESE SHOWERS PERCOLATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
BEFORE FIZZLING OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. GIVEN THEIR ELEVATED
NATURE...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
AS USUAL...THE FORECAST IS QUITE COMPLICATED AS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE INGREDIENTS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...EVEN ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
THE MODELS IS THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
/PWATS AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES/ AND SUFFICIENT MLCAPES AROUND
500-700 J/KG. THE NAM/GFS/EURO/RAP ALL INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SONORA WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SUBTLE DARKENING/DRYING OVER CENTRAL
SONORA. HOWEVER THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THAT RESIDES ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF ARIZONA. GOING TO BE HARD TO
DESTABILIZE IF THIS THICK CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE ALL DAY AND
IF THINGS DONT CLEAR OUT AT LEAST A LITTLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...IT
MAY END UP MUCH LESS ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
HOWEVER...STEERING LEVEL WINDS IN THE 700-500MB LAYER ARE CURRENTLY
ADVECTING CLEAR SKIES INTO FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO SO THERE IS SOME
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THINGS WILL CLEAR OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INHERITED FORECAST CONTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND I ONLY MADE SLIGHT TEMPORAL CHANGES...FOCUSING
MORE ON THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME THAN ANYTHING ELSE. I WILL INTRODUCE A
MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST INTO THE FORECAST AS DUST IS
CERTAINLY A THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE OPEN DESERTS. HOWEVER WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THAT MAY HELP KEEP THE DUST SETTLED
DOWN A BIT.
ACTIVE PATTERN FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL PWATS EACH AFTERNOON AND MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. MUCH OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
DICTATED BY WHERE AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY /LINGERING
BOUNDARIES...HOW WORKED OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS...ETC.../ SO I
WILL KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHED APPROACH TO THE POPS AND KEEP THEM WELL
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK HOWEVER THE ONLY DAY TO
FEATURE ANY SORT OF NOTEWORTHY INVERTED TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IS
TUESDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES OR
IF THIS IS JUST CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BEING ADVECTED WITH THE MEAN
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A CLIMO-LIKE APPEARANCE
TO THE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGHLIGHTING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THAT OCCURRED THIS EVENING...I WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY...ONLY TOPPING OUT JUST ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
AS PWATS CHANGE LITTLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH THE IDEA OF HIGHS AROUND 102-105
EACH AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...EVENING CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN SOME RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 80S OR EVEN LOWER 90S. OF COURSE OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT BUT WILL STICK WITH THE IDEA OF VERY
WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST WHILE DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN BY
MIDNIGHT...BUT WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OUT OF
THE EAST SOUTHEAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRONG STORM OUTFLOWS
AND BLOWING DUST.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PERSISTENT BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ELEVATED STORM CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT EVEN PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER DESERTS COULD SEE RAINFALL. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. GIVEN THE INCREASED
HUMIDITIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL .
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM INDUCED OUTFLOWS...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
QUIET AND SHOULD FOLLOW THE USUAL UPSLOPE/DRAINAGE PATTERNS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1100 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
WHILE SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING...COVERAGE HAS
DECREASED CONSIDERABLY. LIGHTNING FREQUENCY HAS ALSO DECREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. DID BUMP UP POPS A LITTLE AFTER 06Z THOUGH AS
SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP LOOKS TO CONTINUE A FEW MORE HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 437 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER OUR NRN ZONES
THIS AFTN SO BUMPED UP POPS IN THAT AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST THINKING AS CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIE
DOWN AS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
MOISTURE IS BEING WRAPPED UP IN COUNTERCLOCKWISE FLOW UNDERNEATH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THOUGH DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AFTER 8PM DUE TO INCREASING STABILITY WITH SFC COOLING.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
LATE IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE AREA OF CONVECTION WELL
TODAY AND PROJECTS MOISTURE TO WRAP BACK AROUND FROM THE EAST
AFTER 6PM IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN REGION BUT DISSIPATED BY
MIDNIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WELL WITH 0.75 INCH PWATS REMAINING UNDER THE RIDGE...MEDIOCRE
40KT DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND INCREASED SUNSHINE DUE TO A LACK OF
ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...DUE TO A LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING
AND STEERING...STORM CELLS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NOT DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS. THE SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORED AS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
IN THIS REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK FOR CONTINUED HOT TEMPS. MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH NORTH OVER UT/WRN CO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
POOLING OVER SRN AZ/SRN NM/NWRN MEXICO TO GRADUALLY EXPAND
NORTHWARD...WHILE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH.
DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY SMALL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM MOST AFTERNOONS IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION.
STORM COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL...TO SCATTERED OVER THE SAN JUANS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 0.5 TO 0.65 INCH THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MIX
OF WET AND DRY STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH A SLIM CHANCE FOR
SOME TAF SITES BEING AFFECTED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS WILL OCCUR
SO KEPT ANY MENTION OF -SHRA OR -TSRA OUT OF TAF FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MORE HIGH CLOUDS TOMORROW WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS AGAIN FAVORING SRN AREAS. DID INCLUDE VCTS FOR KDRO AND
KTEX TOMORROW AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN
SEEN TODAY. MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS LOW SO EXPECT GUSTY SFC WINDS
FROM ANY STORMS THAT FORM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND...STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MIX OF WET AND DRY. HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE DRYING
POTENTIAL HIGH.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1022 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
WHILE SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING...COVERAGE HAS
DECREASED CONSIDERABLY. LIGHTNING FREQUENCY HAS ALSO DECREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. DID BUMP UP POPS A LITTLE AFTER 06Z THOUGH AS
SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP LOOKS TO CONTINUE A FEW MORE HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 437 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER OUR NRN ZONES
THIS AFTN SO BUMPED UP POPS IN THAT AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST THINKING AS CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIE
DOWN AS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
MOISTURE IS BEING WRAPPED UP IN COUNTERCLOCKWISE FLOW UNDERNEATH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THOUGH DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AFTER 8PM DUE TO INCREASING STABILITY WITH SFC COOLING.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
LATE IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE AREA OF CONVECTION WELL
TODAY AND PROJECTS MOISTURE TO WRAP BACK AROUND FROM THE EAST
AFTER 6PM IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN REGION BUT DISSIPATED BY
MIDNIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WELL WITH 0.75 INCH PWATS REMAINING UNDER THE RIDGE...MEDIOCRE
40KT DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND INCREASED SUNSHINE DUE TO A LACK OF
ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...DUE TO A LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING
AND STEERING...STORM CELLS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NOT DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS. THE SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORED AS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
IN THIS REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK FOR CONTINUED HOT TEMPS. MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH NORTH OVER UT/WRN CO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
POOLING OVER SRN AZ/SRN NM/NWRN MEXICO TO GRADUALLY EXPAND
NORTHWARD...WHILE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH.
DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY SMALL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM MOST AFTERNOONS IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION.
STORM COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL...TO SCATTERED OVER THE SAN JUANS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 0.5 TO 0.65 INCH THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MIX
OF WET AND DRY STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS NEAR SOME
TAFS. HOWEVER...RADAR MOSAIC STARTING SHOW A DOWNTICK IN
CONVECTION AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH MOST CONVECTION
FINISHED BY 03Z. AFTER THAT TIME...VFR WILL BE PREVALENT THOUGH
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STILL BE PRESENT. ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION IS ON TAP FOR TOMORROW WITH MTN TAF SITES POSSIBLY
SEEING MORE VCTS OR -TSRA ALONG WITH KDRO AS SRN AREAS DO REMAIN
FAVORED. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL SEE SCT SKIES BECOMING BKN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH VFR CONDITIONS BEING THE NORM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND...STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MIX OF WET AND DRY. HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE DRYING
POTENTIAL HIGH.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
231 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET AND EAST OF CAPE
COD...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ARTHUR WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY HAVING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
THE MARINE COMMUNITY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND
WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MOIST PLUME FROM HURRICANE ARTHUR
GETTING BROUGHT INTO MID LATITUDE TROF AND THIS HELPING SUPPORT
LINE OF SHOWERS ON A SW TO NE AXIS ACROSS EASTERN PA...EASTERN NY
AND INTO VT AT 06Z. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO FAR WESTERN PORTION OF CWA AS SHOWN BY HRRR AND
REFLECT THIS IN THE POPS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND REMAINS OF THE COLD FRONT AND APPROACH OF
HURRICANE ARTHUR UP THE COAST. HIGH POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THETA E
RIDGE STARTS THE MORNING OVER EASTERN MASS/RI...EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION. BUT POPS WILL BE AT LEAST AT LIKELY
LEVELS ALL PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIP WILL BE
SHOWERY...SO EXPECT RAIN-FREE PERIODS DURING THE DAY. BUT STILL A
WARM AND MUGGY DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF US FRI NIGHT
* HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND
* INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT ARTHUR MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF AND NAM TAKE THE CENTER OF ARTHUR JUST S/E OF
THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE CLOSER TO
NANTUCKET. THE NHC TRACK CONTINUES TO HAVE ARTHUR MOST LIKELY
PASSING NEAR OR JUST S/E OF THE BENCHMARK. ARTHUR WILL LIKELY BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS. THE MAIN HEAVY
RAIN THREAT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI.
RAINS FROM ARTHUR LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT COULD TOTAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THAT AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET.
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS /34 KTS OR GREATER/ DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERNMOST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS...WHERE GUSTS TO 45 KT ARE
EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST WINDS FROM HURRICANE ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE.
SATURDAY...ARTHUR CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NOVA SCOTIA. HEAVY
RAINS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END ALONG EASTERN MA SATURDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY BEFORE THEN. SKIES WILL CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME
NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AND MORE COMFORTABLE WITH A NORTHWEST WIND.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA DURING
THE WEEKEND. QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS RETURN. A COLD FRONT MAY
CROSS THE AREA DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME...BRINGING THE RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER OUR AREA...BUT WITH AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN
THERE MAY STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POP.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERNIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY IN RI AND SE MA.
FRIDAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG...THEN
GENERALLY MVFR DURING THE DAY WITH PERIODIC IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING BUT THEN MORE OF A
STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR BUT LOW PROBABILITY OF IFR
CIGS FOR A TIME BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR BUT PERIODS OF IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE 08Z TO 12Z.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING
SHOWERS BECOMING VFR LATE BDL/BAF/ORH AND VICINITY. MHT/BOS/PVD AND
EAST...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND HEAVY
RAIN. NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE AT CAPE AND ISLAND TERMINALS.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR BDL/BAF/ORH AND VICNINITY. TO
THE EAST...POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND HEAVY RAIN EARLY SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND
25KTS POSSIBLE TO START. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENE. MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BELOW 25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND LESS THAN 5 FEET
FARTHER NORTH. SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING AROUND/NORTH OF CAPE
ANN...AND THESE COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ALL AREAS ON FRIDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS HURRICANE ARTHUR
APPROACHES.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET AND EAST OF CAPE
COD...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS
FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST WATERS FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
AND EAST OF CAPE COD...IN THIS AREA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE MARINE COMMUNITY.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SLOWLY
SATURDAY AS ARTHUR MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT INCREASING
SW WINDS SEAS ON COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS JUICY WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.7 TO 2.0
INCHES. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS TIME. THIS WILL MEAN A
CHANCE FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLASH FLOODING. RIVERS AND
STREAMS ARE GENERALLY AT NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...EXCEPT BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN MA AND NORTHERN RI.
BECAUSE OF THIS...LARGER TRIBUTARY AND MAINSTEM RIVERS WOULD BE
MORE DIFFICULT TO FLOOD.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. ANTICIPATE ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR THE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRI EVENING TIME FRAME.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-
008>012-026.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-
015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ231-232-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ250.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG/NMB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/NMB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
427 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
THEN MOVE UP TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...TO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HURRICANE ARTHUR IS LOCATED NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AS OF 3 AM WITH A MIN
SLP OF 973 MB. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING INFLUENCED BY
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND HAS STARTED ITS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HAS ACCELERATED IN SPEED. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK TAKES
ARTHUR FAR ENOUGH OFF THE DELMARVA AND NJ COAST TO SPARE DIRECT
WIND/STORM SURGE IMPACTS FROM THE HURRICANE.
THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AS WELL AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS STALLED OVER EASTERN
PA...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS THIS MRNG. CYCLONIC FLOW
ON NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT MOVES NEWD THIS MRNG. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND NEAR THE NJ COAST THIS
MRNG. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF IS PICKING UP ON THIS FAIRLY WELL.
ACCORDINGLY, THERE IS STILL A HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS. WHILE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
STILL IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE CWA THIS MRNG (AND FOR THE
DELMARVA/SRN NJ THRU THE AFTN), THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA AS THE
INSTABILITY REQUIRED FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WANES. WILL LIKELY
BE ABLE TO TRIM BACK THESE N/W PORTIONS OF THE WATCH LATER THIS
MRNG.
NW FLOW AROUND THE HURRICANE WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY
MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN. DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE
CWA BUT DID FCST LOW 80S FOR THE DELMARVA AND PHILLY METRO WHERE
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND LATER IN THE AFTN. NW
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTN AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
WITH PLENTY OF FIREWORKS SCHEDULED FOR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
(WHICH IS AROUND 830 PM), SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
IN TIME ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER COASTAL AREAS.
THE MAIN WX-RELATED IMPACT FOR FIREWORKS WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT (FOR JULY STANDARDS) WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA AS HIPRES BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND HURRICANE ARTHUR
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME. NW WINDS
MAY GUST 25-35 MPH DURING THE EARLY EVENING BUT WILL START TO
DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SCHEDULED FIREWORKS TIME.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 5-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMP
FCST WEIGHTED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINING WELL MIXED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SAT AND SUN...ARTHUR WILL BE WELL NE OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SAT AND THE
SWELLS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AT THE OCEAN. THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS CONTINUES A DECENT TRACK RECORD OF
FAIR WEATHER WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY IN THE LOW 80S AND A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER SUN. A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN DE ON
SUNDAY.
MON...A WEAK H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE LOW
PRESSURE TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
WILL CREATE A RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL CAUSE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO RISE
ONCE AGAIN. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK MON WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS MOST
AREAS. THERE IS A SMALL CHC FOR A SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS THE FAR
N/W...BUT OTHER THAN THAT DRY ACROSS A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
TUE AND WED...THERE IS A BETTER CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SLOWS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...FURTHER SLOWING IT WED. THERE IS
A CHC OR SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON BOTH DAYS IN MOST AREAS.
THE N/W AREAS ARE MOST FAVORED. TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
BOTH DAYS WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS. (COOLER ACROSS THE SRN
POCONOS AND A BIT WARMER OVER SRN DELAWARE).
THU...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...SO
THE CHCS FOR PCPN WILL BE LESS THAN THE EARLIER FEW DAYS. WE WILL
STILL KEEP A SMALL CHC FOR A SHOWER/TSTM AS OFFERED BY WPC. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MRNG DESPITE AREAS OF SHRA OVER
THE AREA. A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN MODERATE SHRA THIS MRNG AND
BRIEFLY/LOCALIZED IFR RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY SHRA. NLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THRUOUT THE DAY AS HURRICANE ARTHUR TRACKS EAST OF THE NRN
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GUST TO 20 KT THIS MRNG AND TO 30 KT BETWEEN
ABOUT 18Z-00Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TNGT AFTER SUNSET TO 10-15 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS SAT.
TUE...VFR WITH SCT AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH/WESTERN
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATER THIS MRNG AS HURRICANE ARTHUR MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. WIND/WAVE HAZARDS COVERED BY SCA BUT PLEASE NOTE
WINDS THAT WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ COAST THIS AFTN. THE 00Z GFS
INDICATES TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FOR THESE ZONES WHILE MAJORITY
OF OTHER GUIDANCE, INCLUDING FROM NHC, KEEP THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ABOUT 25-50 MILES EAST OF THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES.
HIGH SURF CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET THIS AFTN
AND TNGT WHEN ARTHUR IS CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WILL DIMINISH LATE.
SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS UNTIL EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS
WILL APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS.
MON...SCA POSSIBLE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
BECAUSE OF ARTHUR`S PASS COINCIDING WITH THE START OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT, EVEN IF WE WILL FALL A BIT SHORT OF CRITERIA. WE
ALSO ARE ANTICIPATING A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
THIS POSES A HUGE CONCERN CONSIDERING THE LARGE NUMBERS OF
PEOPLE, INCLUDING THE LESS EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS, WHO WILL VENTURE
OUT DURING ONE OF THE BIGGEST BEACH WEEKENDS OF THE YEAR. THE
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ON LAND THIS WEEKEND COULD LEAD TO A
FALSE SENSE OF SAFETY IN THE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE-THREATENING IF YOU/RE NOT PREPARED TO
HANDLE THEM. FOR THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SAFETY...SWIM ONLY UNDER
THE WATCHFUL EYES OF LIFEGUARDS. OTHERWISE ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR
RESCUE CAN SUFFER FROM A MUCH GREATER RESPONSE DELAY AND BE FATAL.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ060>062-070-071-
101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-
013-015>019.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ014-
020>027.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DEZ001.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR DEZ004.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ008.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1144 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING TOUGH NEAR THE WESTERN END
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOTHING REALLY CATCHING THIS...AND THIS
CLUSTER IS MOSTLY BEING DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE AFFECTS. SO RAISED
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE FAR WEST THROUGH THE EVENING. LEFT THE
POPS ALONE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
BASED ON THUNDERSTORM BLOWOFF TO THE WEST AND WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE
SOME STRATUS ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT...INCREASED CLOUD COVER. NOT
SURE HOW FAR EAST CONVECTION WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WAS
TEMPTED TO PULL IT BACK FURTHER WEST. HOWEVER...THE HRRR FOR MOST
OF THIS SHIFT AND NOW THE RAP ARE HINTING AT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROWING OUT A RATHER
SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT GETS DRAPED OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW.
THIS COULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE CONVECTION.
SO CHOSE TO NOT DO ANYTHING WITH THE POPS DUE TO POSSIBLE
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES AND WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WATCH THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
GENERALLY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER AHEAD OF A 700MB SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WHERE DEW POINTS ARE ABOVE 60 DEGREES. AT THE SURFACE BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER...WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. FURTHER WEST A DRY LINE WAS
LOCATED WEST OF LIMON EXTENDING TO THE NORTH/SOUTH. AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE DRY LINE WILL MOVE TO JUST WEST OF THE KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES. MEANWHILE A WEAK 500MB TROUGH OVER
THE DRY LINE MAY SPARK SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING THE 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS SOME AND MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH PARCELS ABLE TO TAP INTO THE SURFACE BASED CAPE
INTO MID EVENING...DECIDED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 800MB DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF
THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTS HIGHER MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL OVERNIGHT OVER THE EAST 1/3 AS
THE 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ELEVATED CAPE AND THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS NEAR SUNRISE.
FRIDAY MORNING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE OVER THE EAST
1/3 AS ELEVATED CONVECTION LINGERS AHEAD OF THE 500MB SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE DRY LINE WEST OF THE AREA MOVES
EAST TO THE CO/KS LINE AS ANOTHER 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS TO BE STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND WITH THE ADDED HELP OF THE DRY LINE HAVE
A BIT HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON THAN FOR
TODAY. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE DRY
LINE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST BUT STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE DRY LINE
AND MOVES EAST INTO BETTER INSTABILITY. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON SINCE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE
20-25KTS...DECLINING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STORM COVERAGE
INCREASES.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID MORNING...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY EAST OF HWY 25.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS A WARMER
AIR MASS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOME FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN REBUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN EASTERN COLORADO
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY.
VERY WARM H7 TEMPERATURES FROM 14 TO 16 C ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FA FRIDAY EVENING WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD FORM ON THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST WITH 0-6KM WINDS AT 5 TO 10KTS. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FA, IT IS UNCERTAIN
THAT STORMS WOULD MAKE IT THAT FAR. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR THIS SCENARIO.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVEN WARMER H7 TEMPERATURES SPREAD ACROSS THE
FA.ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE. POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THESE PERIODS.
850MB TEMPERATURES AT 32 WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR 100
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW WILL BRING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
AT KGLD...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES. WHAT ELEVATED CONVECTION OCCURS TONIGHT
LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF BOTH SITES. SOME GUSTY WINDS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WILL DECREASE SHORTLY BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD INDICATE THAT
NO THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EITHER SITE. SINCE TOO FAR OUT AND
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...CHOSE TO LEAVE ALL MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
OUT OF BOTH TAFS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
314 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
MAIN CONCERN IS THE FOCUS OF SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS A SHRTWV AND MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.
MORNING SHORT TERM MODEL DEPICTION OF THE HRRR/HOPWRF/SPCWRF ALL
INDICATED SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE OF SD WHICH HAS
MATERIALIZED AS OF 7Z. MODELS DO DEPICT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE E/NE ALONG THE DEVELOPING WAA/MOISTURE CONFLUENT REGION
ACROSS WC/CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD/SCT
DUE TO THE LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND STRENGTH OF THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION. 03Z HOPWRF DOES SHOW HIGHER REFLECTIVITY MOVING
AS FAR EAST AS EC MN DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HRS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. HOWEVER...THIS IS LIKELY SPRINKLES AT BEST DUE TO THE
DRIER AIR ACROSS EASTERN MN THIS MORNING...AND THE TRAJECTORY OF THE
STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE N/NE OF MPX CWA. BY THE
AFTN...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN MN AS
OUR REGION BECOMES CAPPED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SFC FEATURES TO
FOCUS ONGOING CONVECTION. LATER THIS EVENING...THE FOCUS SHOULD BE
ALONG A POTENT SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE GFS/EC/GEM ALL CONSIDER THAT THERE SHOULD BE TWO AREAS
OF CONVECTION TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL LIKELY FOCUS ON THE LLJ IN
SD/NE AND MOVING INTO IOWA. WHILE THE SECOND FEATURE WILL LIKELY
FOCUS WITH AFTN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MN. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO CONTINUE ISOLD CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
AS BOTH K-INDEX VALUES AND A ELONGATED SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY IF MORE CLDS DEVELOP AND DO NOT
DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED. AM LEANING TOWARD MID 80S IN THE WEST TO
AROUND 80 IN THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS INSTIGATES
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. FAST ZONAL FLOW THEN
PREVAILS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL MEAN OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND AN INABILITY TO CONFIDENTLY ISOLATE
AN ENTIRELY DRY DAY.
THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF WITH HIGHS MEETING OR EXCEEDING CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS...WITH READINGS IN THE 80S EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. WHILE THERE COULD BE ISOLATED NOCTURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE DAY...DO EXPECT A MID LEVEL CAP TO BE BUILDING IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY /PER PROGGED 700MB TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND
+11C/ . HAVE INCLUDED A 20 POP FOR SAID ISOLATED ACTIVITY...BUT
THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING AS AN EXPECTED NOCTURNAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND SPILLS INTO CENTRAL MN ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL CAP. HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WI.
AS THE MCS DECAYS ON SUNDAY...DO EXPECT SUFFICIENT CLEARING TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO THREATEN THE 90 DEGREE MARK WILL BE FROM
WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAT INDEX VALUES NEARING 95 DEGREES. AS
THE TEMPERATURES WARM AND INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...MODELS INDICATE MLCAPES INCREASING TO OVER 4000 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES CIRCA 40 KTS. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO BE JUST SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE MPX
CWA...BUT WILL CERTAINLY BE SUSCEPTIBILE TO MINOR AREAL SHIFTS
DEPENDING ON HOW THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO UNFOLDS EARLY SUNDAY.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY PM APPEARS
TO BE FROM MANKATO AND OWATONNA TO EAU CLAIRE AND POINTS
SOUTH/EAST.
LESS FOCI FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE
FOUND THROUGH NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY/S SYSTEM. WHILE 20
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PEPPERING THE FORECAST
NEARLY EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK...MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY ON
SEVERAL OF THE DAYS...AND THOSE THAT DO RECEIVE RAIN WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE FAIRLY LIGHT ASSOCIATED PRECIP AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS HOVERING AROUND 80
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THIS TAF SET...BUT THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHC
THAT WESTERN SITES AROUND 12Z THIS MRNG COULD SEE MVFR CONDS DUE
TO INCOMING -SHRA. A WEAK MIDLVL DISTURBANCE MOVING EWD FROM THE
DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN NEAR DAYBREAK MAY SPAWN ISOLD TO SCTD -SHRA
THAT MAY AFFECT KRWF-KAXN-KSTC. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT...AND AM
ADVERTISING VFR -SHRA WITH THIS SET...BUT IF RAINFALL INTENSITIES
DEVELOP PER THE LAST COUPLE HRRR AND HOPWRF MODEL RUNS...THERE
COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDS. THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
WRN MN...THUS NOT IMPACTING KMSP-KRNH-KEAU SO HAVE LEFT THOSE
SITES DRY. VFR CONDS THEN PREVAIL THRU THE DAY...BUT ANOTHER APCHG
WAVE MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCTD -SHRA FRI EVE...AGAIN OVER
MAINLY WRN TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS LIKELY IN THE MID- TO
UPR- LEVELS...GRADUALLY INCRG IN COVERAGE. WINDS TO EVENTUALLY
BECOME SLY AND BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY BY THIS AFTN.
KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT THIS FCST PKG. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MIDLVL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THAN FCST IN THE PREVIOUS FCST SET DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY STRONG MIDLVL WAVE APCHG OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
ADVERTISED BKN COVERAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WITH MULTIPLE
LAYERS XPCTD AFTER DAYBREAK BUT WITH UPR LVL CEILINGS. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY LOWER THRU THE DAY BUT NO PRECIP IS XPCTD DURG THIS SET.
LGT/VRBL WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SLY BY THE MORNING PUSH THEN INCRS
IN SPEED THRU THE AFTN HRS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
321 AM MDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A WEATHER
PATTERN IN SOMEWHAT OF A STATE OF CHANGE FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REGION. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WHICH WAS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS BEEN ALL BUT FLATTENED AND SHIFTED
EASTWARD...LEAVING A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MONTANA WITH
POSSIBLE A SLIGHT WEAK RIDGING EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH STILL IN
PLACE.
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THIS UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL HOLD NEARLY CONSTANT WITH MAYBE A FEW
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SETTING OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT...AND NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE REGION KEEPING THE
DAY MOSTLY SUNNY WITH RIDGING INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
IT SEEMS LATELY THAT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TRYING TO SQUEEZE AS
MUCH PRECIPITATION OUT AS POSSIBLE...BUT OFTEN ARE FAR OVER-
ESTIMATING THESE STORMS. THE HRRR IS MOST GUILTY OF THIS RECENTLY.
WITH THAT IN MIND...FELT I COULD ONLY GIVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
WHERE I COULD SEE SOME SEMBLANCE OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND CUT BACK
AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE WHERE CONSENSUS SHOWED NO PRECIP. EXPECTING ANY
DEVELOPING STORMS TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD AS THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES AMPLIFIES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDING ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER BEFORE DIVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
EASTERN TROF WITH UPPER FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVES AND A LITTLE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY...SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MIDWEEK WITH HOT DRY AIR
SPREADING NORTH FROM THE GREAT BASIN. UPPER LOW SPINS INTO WESTERN
CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AGAIN. GFS AND EC
BOTH PUSH WEAK FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA EARLY NEXT FRIDAY BUT
KEEP THE AIR MASS HOT AND DRY. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR. A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO WEST BY AFTERNOON. A FEW HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT IN THE
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND
PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
443 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
SATELLITE AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING THE AREA UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SET UP BETWEEN A TROUGH CONTINUING TO
PUSH TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE
ROCKIES FROM HIGH PRESSURE ROUGHLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT
THE SFC...NO NOTABLE CHANGES...THE CWA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING THOSE SRLY WINDS IN PLACE.
STARTING TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WRN
EDGE OF THE CWA...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND INCREASED LIFT VIA A 30-
40ISH KT LLJ EDGES FURTHER EAST. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWING MUCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THAT WRN EDGE...BUT SHEAR IS FAIRLY LOW. EVEN
NOW MODELS STILL VARY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
KEEP THE POPS GOING ACROSS THE CWA AND SEE HOW THINGS TREND OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
STORMS.
WILL CONTINUE THE POPS INTO THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...BUT THINKING
IS THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. SOME MODELS HINT AT
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH
WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT AT THIS POINT UNLESS OTHER MODELS START
TRENDING THAT WAIT NOT BUYING INTO THAT SOLUTION...AND KEPT THE
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS DRY. BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT
NEED TO MONITOR...AND UPDATE IF IT DOES INDEED HAPPEN/AFFECT MAINLY
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA
TIGHTENS AND MIXING POTENTIAL INCREASES...SUSTAINED SPEEDS THIS
AFTERNOON OF 20-25 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG WITH GUSTS OVER
30 MPH. EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TURNS TO THE
WEST...AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG THAT SFC TROUGH AXIS...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE
PLAINS. THINK THE NAM AND SREF ARE TOO FAST WITH BRINGING THE
ACTIVITY EAST...ALREADY AFFECTING THE WRN CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE RAP/4KM WRF...SHOW THE BETTER
CHANCES COMING POST 00Z. TRIMMED BACK THE POPS A BIT FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING...LATEST RAP SHOWING EVEN AT 01Z THE
BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY IS W/NW OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY THINGS CAN
TREND DIFFERENTLY WITH UPCOMING MODEL RUNS...ANOTHER THING FOR THE
DAY SHIFT TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON...ESP WITH FOLKS WONDERING
WHETHER THEY WILL BE ABLE TO SEE THEIR FIREWORKS SHOWS. WHILE POPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS...STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE...WHICH MAY BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POPS. THAT
UNCERTAINTY EVEN CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES PUSHING EAST BUT
MODELS VARY WITH WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND BETTER CONVERGENCE
WILL END UP...WITH SOME SHOWING ACTIVITY PICKING BACK UP OVER OUR
ERN COUNTIES. PLENTY OF DETAINS YET TO IRON OUT...EVEN THIS CLOSE
TO THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THINKING AS FAR AS STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER GOES HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH...AS THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO KEEPS THAT POTENTIAL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS STILL LOOKING TO
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER STORY OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS A
PROLONGED STRETCH OF NEAR-NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL SUMMER
HEAT...MEANING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MOST DAYS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO RANGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
MID-80S AND LOW-90S...WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXCEEDING THIS
RANGE ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. FOR THOSE WHO ENJOYED THESE PAST FEW
BELOW NORMAL DAYS...THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WILL BE A RUDE
REMINDER THAT IT IS IN FACT JULY. THE INCREASING TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY AS
WELL...WITH DEWS FORECAST TO AVERAGE AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 60S
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA MOST FAVORED TO SEE
DEWPOINTS OCCASIONALLY REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED THE MORE-
OPPRESSIVE 70 DEGREE MARK. AS FOR BOTH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES...SUNDAY IS CURRENTLY SLATED TO BE THE OVERALL-
HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITHIN THE CWA...AND MADE
RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ACTUAL TEMPS
AIMED FROM THE MID-90S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 90S-100
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST KEEPS ALL AREAS AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105+ DEGREES...THERE IS A
DECENT PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA NOW FORECAST TO OBSERVE VALUES IN THE
100-104 RANGE...SO HAVE KEPT THIS NEAR-ADVISORY HEAT INDEX
FORECAST IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).
FORTUNATELY...SUNDAY IS THE ONLY DAY OUT OF THESE 6 FORECAST TO
BREACH THE 100+ HEAT INDEX MARK...THANKS TO A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TEMPERING THE HEAT
A BIT...AND ALSO ALLOWING SURFACE BREEZES TO PREVAIL FROM MORE OF
AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK INSTEAD OF
THE PREVALENT SOUTHERLY DIRECTION EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
SWITCHING GEARS TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...FOR BETTER OR
WORSE THESE 6 DAYS SIGNAL A GENERAL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
PATTERN OF 1-2 WEEKS AGO...MEANING THAT THERE ARE A MULTITUDE OF
FAIRLY LOW 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE MAJORITY OF 12-HOUR
PERIODS...BUT VERY FEW OF THESE PERIODS WILL PROBABLY END UP
HAVING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SO BE SURE TO KEEP THESE MYRIAD CHANCES
ESPECIALLY BEYOND THE FIRST FEW DAYS IN PERSPECTIVE. THAT BEING
SAID...THE ONLY PERIOD THAT CURRENTLY FEATURES MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER 30-40 POPS IS MONDAY NIGHT...SO IF
TRENDS HOLD THIS MAY END UP BEING THE OVERALL-BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES...OBVIOUSLY GIVEN THE RETURN OF TYPICAL SUMMER
HEAT/HUMIDITY THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AROUND MOST OF
THE TIME...BUT ALSO TYPICAL OF SUMMER THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME
WILL PROBABLY HAVE NO BETTER THAN MODEST DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR
AND/OR CAPPING ISSUES. AS A RESULT...THERE IS FAR TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO SAY MUCH ABOUT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK BEYOND
THIS WEEKEND...BUT PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 3 OUTLOOK
THERE COULD BE AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT FOR LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND PROBABLY MORE-SO
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO NEB ZONES FROM
THE NORTH. ALSO...BACKING UP TO RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY
MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG STORMS
LINGERING IN EASTERN ZONES FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY
DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE...BUT ODDS ARE THAT ANY
LEGITIMATE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY THEN.
GETTING MORE INTO METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING THINGS IN
24-HOUR BLOCKS...
SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS REMAINS
THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON CENTRAL PLAINS WEATHER...BUT THE DAYTIME
HOURS START OUT WITH THE LINGERING DEPARTURE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...JUST CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME STORMS LINGERING OVER EASTERN ZONES INTO THE MID-MORNING
HOURS...AND THUS LARGELY MAINTAINED LOW POPS SATURDAY MORNING FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MID-UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF A BIT
AND TURNS THE FLOW MORE NORTHERLY ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH A
LACK OF DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. AS A RESULT...DESPITE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE CONSENSUS OF MOST MODELS AND KEEP SATURDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT
VOID OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POPS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH COULD AT
LEAST SEE SOME ACTIVITY COME VERY CLOSE TO AFFECTING THE CWA. HIGH
TEMPS AIMED FROM LOW 90S NORTHEAST TO MID-UPPER 90S
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE ENHANCED HEAT ASPECT AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE POSSIBLE STRONG-SEVERE STORM RISK LATE IN THE DAY
AND LIKELY MORE SO INTO THE EVENING HAS ALREADY BEEN COVERED
ABOVE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED A BIT BY THE
PASSAGE OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
GENERALLY ALONG THE CANADA BORDER. THIS IN TURN ALLOWS A WEAK BUT
DECENTLY-DEFINED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...POSSIBLY PROMOTING VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT
PRIMARILY WITHIN THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY HERE THOUGH.
MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...A BIT STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE UPPER JET CORE SINKS FARTHER
SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAINTAINED TOKEN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
DAY BUT AS ALREADY MENTIONED THE NIGHT PERIOD FEATURES THE
OVERALL-HIGHEST POPS OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD IN THE 30-40 RANGE AS
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE FAIRLY INSISTENT IN SPARKING POTENTIALLY
VIGOROUS AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPS TEMPER A BIT
FROM SUNDAY...GENERALLY AIMED UPPER 80S NORTH-MID 90S SOUTH.
TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THESE 24 HOURS REMAIN BLANKETED
WITH MAINLY TOKEN 20 POPS AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS ALONG THE
POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT ACTIVE INTERFACE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
DIRECTED ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS RIDGE AND
A VIGOROUS SOUTHEAST CANADA TROUGH. HIGH TEMPS MID 80S NORTH-LOW
90S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOST CONVECTION IN THE REGION COULD
FOCUS SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF THE CWA...BLANKET COVERAGE OF 20 POPS
CONTINUES DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. HIGH TEMPS MID 80S NORTH-LOW 90S
SOUTH.
THURSDAY DAYTIME...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT POPS CONTINUE AREA-WIDE FOR
NOW...THERE ARE VERY EARLY INDICATIONS THAT FLOW ALOFT MAY TURN
MORE ZONAL AND ALLOW WARMER ALOFT TO PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST...POTENTIALLY USHERING IN AT LEAST A BRIEF STRETCH THAT MAY
NOT EVEN BE WORTHY OF 20 POPS IN LATER FORECASTS. HIGH TEMPS VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED MID 80S NORTH-LOW 90S SOUTH...VERY SIMILAR TO
TUES-WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRY WEATHER GOING THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THINGS REMAINING COMPLETELY DRY IS
NOT HIGH. MODELS VARY BUT SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED/SCATTERED PRECIP AROUND AS WE GET CLOSER TO
SUNRISE...THEN AGAIN IN THE LATER HOURS OF THE PERIOD. THE ISSUE
IS THAT THE OVERALL COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO AT THIS
TIME NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TERMINAL AREAS BEING DIRECTLY
AFFECTED TO INSERT A MENTION. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE
WINDS...EXPECTING SRLY WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE
GUSTY ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1243 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.
LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME CUMULUS FORMING JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH HAS
MOVED TO THE EAST AND THE SOUTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A LITTLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY TIGHT DURING THE NIGHT
TIME HOURS TONIGHT...SO WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH DURING
THE NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE NAM
AND FOR THE MOST PART THE ECMWF ARE MOSTLY DRY AND THE HRRR HAS
BASICALLY NO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GFS BRINGS IN THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND SPREADS THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER THERE COULD BE ANY
STRONG STORMS WITH THESE. THERE IS AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THAT COULD BRING IN SOME STORMS
THAT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS
WELL. WILL KEEP SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST BUT WITH THE WAVE APPROACHING THERE
COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE WEST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARMING TREND.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
PATTERN: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH VIA MULTI-AGENCY ENSEMBLE MEANS THAT A
LOW TO MODERATELY AMPLITUDE WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WILL
PREVAIL IN THE LONGWAVES FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL SAT-MON...THEN TURNING AT OR A LITTLE BELOW THAN
NORMAL TUE- THU.
ALOFT: A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW AND
SRN PLAINS FRI EVE. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. IT`S BEST SEEN
WITH DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE TOOLS. BEYOND THAT IT`S ANTICYCLONIC NW FLOW
HERE THRU SUN NIGHT...WITH THE POLAR JET CONFINED TO THE US-CAN
BORDER. UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL RESULT IN RE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE HEIGHTS
TO FALL OVER THE ERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK... DRIVING A COOL FRONT
INTO THE FCST AREA. NW FLOW WILL CONT MON-THU AND IT IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PICK OUT ANY SHORTWAVE TROFS.
SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL SUN. THEN
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION WILL SEND A COOL FRONT THRU HERE DURING THE DAY
SUN. THIS IS 6-12 HRS FASTER THAN WHEN WE LOOKED AT THIS YESTERDAY
...DEPENDENT UPON WHICH MODEL CHOSEN. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER KS MON-THU BUT WILL BE MODULATED AND/OR REINFORCED
BY TSTM ACTIVITY.
HAZARDS: THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME TSTM ACTIVITY FRI NIGHT TO
BE SEVERE. FOLLOW THE SPC OUTLOOKS FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A SLGT
RISK AND THE HWO FROM THIS OFFICE.
THERE IS OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTM OR
TWO SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
OTHER TSTM POTENTIAL EXISTS TUE-THU...BUT NO CONFIDENCE ON POTENCY
OR COVERAGE THIS FAR OUT IN A WEAK FORCING REGIME.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
FRI NIGHT: SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP LATE FRI AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT THEY WILL THREATEN AREAS N AND
W OF THE TRI-CITIES DURING THE EVENING. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01"
QPF SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OR END AS IT MOVES IN. THIS
MAY NOT BE THE END OF THE STORY. IF UPSTREAM STORMS CAN FORM A
COMMON COLD POOL AND PROPAGATE E...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO A MUCH
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH MUCAPE AVERAGING 2000 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AT LEAST 40 KTS. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF WRF-NMM AND
WRF-ARW HI-RES REFLECTIVITY SUGGEST THE IS A POSSIBILITY. WE NEED TO
MONITOR THIS TIME PERIOD FOR SEVERE TSTMS.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER ERN NEB/KS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
LLJ WILL REINTENSIFY...BUT LOW PRES THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES /AND
POSSIBLY THE TROF MOVING THRU HERE/ WILL FORCE THE LEE TROF E OF ITS
CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION. THE EFFECT WILL BE TO SHOVE THE LLJ CORE E
OF THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...REPOSITIONING THE BEST THETA-E
ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE E AS WELL.
SAT: ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS/TSTMS IN THE MORNING DEPART TO THE E.
TURNING HOT AS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FCST AREA CLIMBS INTO THE 90S.
TSTMS WILL FORM AGAIN OUT TO THE W. DO NOT ENVISION ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAKING IT HERE. STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AND
SHIFT TO N.
SUN: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. NOT SURE WE ARE HOT ENOUGH IN THE FCST.
THE COOL FRONT WILL DRAG A VERY HOT THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE FCST
AREA. 100-105F IS ON THE TABLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND S OF HWY 136.
IF THIS OCCURS THEN UPR 90S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE TRI-CITIES.
LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE SUNDAY MISERABLE WITHOUT A/C. DEWPOINTS
POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE 65-71F. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES
TO AROUND 100F OVER S-CNTRL NEB.
THE LLJ SAT NIGHT WILL ADVECT AN EML OVER THE FCST AREA. COMBINED
WITH SUBSIDENCE THIS WILL IMPOSE A FORMIDABLE CAP. SO TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS IFFY LATE AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT.
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...POSSIBLY A LEFT OVER SHWR/TSTM HERE OR
THERE. "IF" A TSTM OR TWO CAN MANAGE TO POP THRU THE CAP...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
...BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE UNDER 20 KTS.
MON: NEAR NORMAL HEAT FOR EARLY JULY...BUT NOTHING EXCESSIVE LIKE
SUN.
MON NIGHT: FOR NOW QPF FROM 00Z/12Z MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL-CLUSTERED
FOR TSTM/MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER NEB/KS. STAYED TUNED. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SOME
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. WE HAVE LOTS OF TIME FOR DETAILS TO EVOLVE.
TUE-THU: SEASONABLE TEMPS AS OF NOW...BUT MODELED TEMPS LOOK TOO
WARM FOR THE 500 MB FLOW. ENSEMBLE TEMP ANOMALIES SUGGEST TEMPS WILL
TREND COOLER THAN NORMAL.
WHILE EVERY LOCATION WILL NOT SEE A TSTM IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME
...THE POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. HOWEVER...
BOTH THE 12Z EC/GEM HAVE A CLEAR SIGNAL THAT A SECONDARY COOL FRONT
WILL SWEEP THRU TUE OR TUE NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...ENOUGH COOL AIR
COULD FORCE THE PREVIOUS FRONT FURTHER S RESULTING IN A DAY OR TWO
WHERE WE COULD REMOVE POPS FROM THE FCST. THIS SCENARIO ALSO
SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF TRENDING COOLER MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRY WEATHER GOING THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THINGS REMAINING COMPLETELY DRY IS
NOT HIGH. MODELS VARY BUT SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED/SCATTERED PRECIP AROUND AS WE GET CLOSER TO
SUNRISE...THEN AGAIN IN THE LATER HOURS OF THE PERIOD. THE ISSUE
IS THAT THE OVERALL COVERAGE IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO AT THIS
TIME NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TERMINAL AREAS BEING DIRECTLY
AFFECTED TO INSERT A MENTION. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE
WINDS...EXPECTING SRLY WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE
GUSTY ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
926 PM PDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY AND SPREAD FARTHER NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND KNOCKING TEMPERATURES DOWN
A FEW MORE DEGREES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. &&
.UPDATE...
A ROBUST MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
ARIZONA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. STORM PROPAGATION IN THIS COMPLEX
IS TOWARD THE WEST AS STORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE MAKE THEIR WAY
TOWARD THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM
TONIGHT IS WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT.
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF
THESE STORMS OVER THE RIVER VALLEY. MLCAPE VALUES OF 100O AS OF
9PM. SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS RIPE. THE OTHER END OF THE EQUATION IS
LOW LEVEL FORCING TO KEEP STORMS GOING. THE PHOENIX UPPER AIR
SOUNDING FROM 00Z SHOWED A NICE...FAIRLY STRONG...EASTERLY FLOW IN
NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH IS MAXIMIZING CONVERGENCE AND KEEPING THE
OUTFLOW FROM RACING TOO FAR AHEAD OF CONVECTION AND UNDERCUTTING
STORMS. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE
IF STORM CONTINUE TO REGENERATE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE GUST
FRONT. THE HRRR MODEL...WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS...SHOWS STORMS POPPING UP IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND EXTREME
SE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY BY 2AM. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ALL THE
ABOVE. SO WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF LAKE HAVASU...NEEDLES...TOPLOCK
AND WIKIUP. STAY TUNED.
OF EQUAL CONCERN IS THAT THE CONVECTION IN ARIZONA WILL LAY DOWN A
SUFACE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE EAST AND WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THIS COULD BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. AGAIN...WE WILL NEED
TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS SET UP WHEN THE CONVECTION ENDS LATER
TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS
WILL SET IN BETWEEN 16-19Z THURSDAY BEFORE GOING BACK TO
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE PEACH
SPRINGS CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. OUTFLOW
FROM THESE STORMS COULD BRING ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO THE TERMINAL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUED MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TERMINAL BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN MOHAVE AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES THEN MOSTLY CLEAR.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MOHAVE COUNTY
INTO EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTIES. ERRATIC AND
GUSTY WINDS NEAR STORMS ALONG WITH CEILING DOWN TO 8-10 KFT.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY. GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY LIGHT
DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM PDT THU JUL 3 2014/
.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SPREAD FARTHER NORTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND KNOCKING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER FAR EASTERN MOHAVE AND
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES WITH ACTIVITY DYING OUT FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN
UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF LAS VEGAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND JUST MAYBE OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE. MOISTURE PUSHES FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
EACH DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BIG QUESTION MARK IN MY MIND IS THE EXISTENCE OR LACK OF A MID/UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OR VORT MAX. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME SUCH FEATURE MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...GENERALLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THIS FEATURE ON RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER. IF IT DOES END UP DEVELOPING...IT COULD
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING ALL NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS AT LEAST
MOHAVE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY OVER EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY INTO
CLARK COUNTY. HOWEVER...I WENT WITH A MORE TYPICAL DOWNWARD POP
TREND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NAM12 INDICATES CAPE VALUES LOWERING
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE OTHER ISSUE IF THE MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY NIGHT
SCENARIO DEVELOPS IS IT COULD ACTUALLY RESULT IN SATURDAY BEING A
DOWN DAY FOR CONVECTION DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LEFT OVER FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT`S ACTIVITY AND COOL SURFACE TEMPS. SO IN OTHER WORDS
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL WITH THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER AND THEY COULD EVEN END UP COOLER THAN
FORECAST SATURDAY IF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER DOES DEVELOP AND
PERSIST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT`S ACTIVITY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF HAS COME
IN EVERY SO SLIGHTLY WETTER FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD...INCHING
CLOSER TO THE GFS. AS A RESULT I HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXTENDING THEM A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN THE
INHERITED FORECAST HAD. FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND INCLUDED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SINCE I CANNOT RULE SHOWERS OUT AT ANY ONE
LOCATION. TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THERE COULD BE AN
INCREASE IN DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH MAY BEGIN TO LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES OVER AT LEAST THE LOWER TERRAIN OF SAN BERNARDINO AND INYO
COUNTIES.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO GUSTY WINDS AND SKY COVER GENERATED BY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF A PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE SATURDAY. THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE AND
LINCOLN COUNTY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOHAVE COUNTY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR MOHAVE...CLARK AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
&&
$$
UPDATE: LERICOS
PREVIOUS: HARRISON/WOLCOTT
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A CLUSTER OF TS/SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SSWD ACROSS THE SW
MTS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THRU THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...WITH
AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LINGERING IN THE RIO GRANDE
FARTHER N TO THE ABQ AREA. BY SUNRISE THE PCPN SHOULD END. MUCH OF
CENTRAL NM SHOULD HAVE STANDING WATER ON THE GROUND...AND THIS MAY
RESULT IN PATCHY FOG TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING IF SKIES CAN CLEAR.
HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST MID AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD
LINGER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION KEEPING THE FOG POSSIBILITY SLIM.
WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING IN AN ARC OVER THE W AND
N MTS...SCT TO NMRS STORMS SHOULD FAVOR THOSE AREAS FRI AFTN AND
NIGHT. NOT AS CONFIDENT IN VCTS AT KABQ AS FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER N
AND W BECAUSE THE MOISTURE PLUME SKIRTS THE SUNPORT. HOWEVER...
MODEL STREAMLINES SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT FIRE ON THE SANDIAS OR
MANZANOS SHOULD DRIFT N NWWD TOWARD KABQ.
44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...537 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014...
.UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...SPC SSEO PRODUCT...THE HI-RES WRF
FROM ABQ AND SPC...AS WELL AS THE 23Z LAPS INSTABILITY PARAMS...
HAVE UPDATED TO RAISE POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE ABQ AND
SAF METRO AS WELL AS THE EAST MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES THIS EVENING.
EXPECT ROBUST CONVECTION TO CONTINUE MERGING INTO A CLUSTER AROUND
BERNALILLO...SANDOVAL...SANTA FE...AND TORRANCE COUNTIES. THIS
CLUSTER IS INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH IN
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHILE DISSIPATING THROUGH 08Z.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO
MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL BE ON INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A MUCH HEALTHIER CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS/TOWERING CUMULUS OVER ALL
MOUNTAIN RANGES THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH WEDNESDAY. CLASSIC
THUNDERHEAD STRUCTURE ALSO APPARENT WITH THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS VERY WEAK. CLOCKWISE
STEERING FLOW ALSO QUITE APPARENT AS STORMS OVER NORTHERN NM
MOVING/PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS DRIFTING EAST AND SOUTHEAST RESPECTIVELY. WITH
WEAK STEERING WINDS BEING THE RULE...COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL HAVE TO INITIATE STORMS IN THE BASINS AND VALLEYS THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY RUN WRF MODEL MODEL INDICATING THAT A CLUSTER OF
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THIS EVENING...QUITE POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE SANTA FE AND ABQ METRO
AREAS ALONG WITH EAST MOUNTAIN AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...NAM12 BUFR DATA
INDICATING THAT THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION/CAP OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE BROKEN EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A FEW MORE
HOURS OF ADDITIONAL HEATING...GETTING EASTERN AREAS INTO THE ACT.
SIMILAR SET UP FOR FRIDAY WITH MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING STEERING
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE ELY. TOUGH PART IS GETTING STORMS
TO PROPAGATE OFF THE SMALLER MOUNTAINS RANGES SUCH AS THE SANDIAS
AND MANZANOS INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS AND BASINS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WINDS. FOURTH OF JULY ACTIVITIES IN THE NORTH VALLEY
OF ABQ MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
NAM12 INDICATING SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH STEERING FLOW TAKING STORMS SLOWLY WEST AND NORTHWEST.
VERY DRY AIRMASS AT 500MB WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER HIGH AND OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LIMITING STORM CHANCES
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WESTWARD TO THE MIDDLE RG VALLEY.
BY TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MORE
TRADITIONAL UPPER LEVEL PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL WORK UP
INTO AZ. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SEEP INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NM FOR AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BEYOND DAY SEVEN AS TO THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER HIGH AND WHETHER OR NOT THE MONSOON PLUME
WILL BE CENTERED OVER NM OR AZ.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT GRADUAL DRYING HAS TAKEN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH THE MORNING MOISTURE MIXING OUT.
DESPITE THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL DEVELOPING IN
THIS AREA AND PROVIDE WETTING RAINS...THOUGH A FEW MAY BE ON THE
DRIER SIDE. THIS AND CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY MOVING SSE ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND WSW ACROSS
SW NM. HRRR MODEL INDICATES CONVECTION WILL PERSIST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RGV. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE CAP
BREAKS PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 RUNS...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO POP GRIDS.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE ACROSS THE
DESERT SW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TURNING CLOCKWISE AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN. BY SUNDAY...THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED...BUT FAVOR THE GILA MOUNTAINS. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE
MOIST SFC AND 700MB LEVEL S TO SE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE
WESTERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL DRYING AREAWIDE THROUGH
SUNDAY AND OVERALL DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL
LOWER EACH DAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES WILL DROP AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEY AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND BECOME NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. VENT RATES AND TRANS WINDS
WILL BOTTOM OUT FRIDAY BEFORE IMPROVING THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW NM.
MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING IN THE SETUP OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. USING A BLEND CONCEPT...IT APPEARS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THE HIGH SLIGHTLY WEST...WITH A WEAK
WIND SHIFT AT THE 700 AND 500MB LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING BACK A MORE
MOIST SELY TO SLY TO NEW MEXICO. THIS CONCEPTUAL MODEL ALIGNS WITH
GFS THETA-E RIDGE POSITIONING. BY MONDAY...THE THETA-E RIDGE BECOME
VERTICAL ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER...AND SLOWLY MOVE E WHILE TURNING
CLOCKWISE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS...HIGHER HUMIDITIES...AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL SEE
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THIS PATTERN...OR DIVERGE AGAIN.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
157 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AS DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM EDT UPDATE...
ALL WATCHES HAVE EXPIRED THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FOR THE MOST PART EXITED THE
AREA. A SFC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN NY AND EXPECT TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS A LINE OF WEAK
SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH. OTHERWISE... MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
115 PM UPDATE...
WW 389 (SVR) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CNY/NE PA THROUGH 01Z.
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND PRODUCERS IS STILL THERE...WITH ML CAPES
BLDG INTO THE 1000-1500 RANGE...AND 0-3 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KT. A
TRANSITION...HOWEVER...MORE TWDS A HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO IS STILL
FORESEEN BY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY IN THE EVE...AS PER PREV DISC
BLO.
PREV DISC... 1030 AM UPDATE... RELATIVELY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE
TO THE SKY COVER/POP/WX GRIDS...BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE.
SAT/RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MRNG SHOWS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDS OVER
CNY/NE PA...WITH MRNG FOG/STRATUS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE. PRIND
STILL ARE THAT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL FIRE UP OVER OUR WRN/NRN ZNS EARLY
THIS AFTN (16-18Z)...WITH COVERAGE GROWING FARTHER E LATER IN THE
DAY (18-20Z AND LATER). OUR LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR OUTPUT SUPPORTS
THIS THINKING WELL.
AS FAR AS POTENTIAL SVR STORMS GO...WE FEEL THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY (MOSTLY 18-21Z)...AS STORMS INITIALLY
FORM...AND ARE ABLE TO PLUG INTO DEEP-LYRD SHEAR (0-3 KM VALUES OF
30-40 KT). STG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS REGARD.
LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVE...HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BECOME THE
GREATER CONCERN...MOSTLY OVER OUR SERN ZNS (NE PA AND THE WRN
CATSKILLS). THE MAIN PLAYERS HERE ARE A STRENGTHENING UPR-LVL JET
TO OUR N FROM LK ONT INTO ONT/QUE...A SLOW MOVING FRNTL BNDRY ACRS
WRN/CNTRL NY...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (WITH INCREASING INPUT
FROM ARTHUR BY EARLY EVE). THE LATEST BLENDED TPW/WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS ARTHUR`S MOISTURE PLUME MERGING INTO THE ALREADY
EXISTING BAND OF FAIRLY HI PWAT AIR ALG THE MID-ATL COAST...AS OF
LATE THIS MRNG. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS LARGER-
SCALE MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN SHOWING BACKING
925-850 MB FLOW...WITH DEEPER TROP MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO ERN
PA/NJ/SERN NY BY 22-02Z. MODEL TRAJS FROM THE LATEST GFS/RAP RUNS
ALSO SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF ARTHUR`S INFLUENCE LIKELY INTO ERN
PA BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME FRAME.
THE ABV DESCRIBED CONFIGURATION OF THE UPR JET CORE...LOW-LVL
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...PWAT...AND A SFC FRNT STILL MATCH THE
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR A "SWLY JET TYPE PRE" (PREDECESSOR RAIN
EVENT) WELL. AS STATED EARLIER...WE THINK THE MAIN FF THREAT IN
OUR CWA WILL BE E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...BUT SINCE THE WATCH IS
PRESENTLY UP AREA-WIDE...AND CONVECTION HAS NOT REALLY SHOWN
ITSELF JUST YET...WE`LL LEAVE THE WATCH AREA AS IS FOR THE TIME
BEING.
OTHERWISE...OUR HIGH TEMP FCST THIS AFTN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE (GENERALLY UPR 70S-MID 80S...WITH SOME UPR 80S IN THE
WYO/LACK VLYS OF NE PA).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO NY KEEPING TS ARTHUR ON THE
COAST. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL PUSH EAST. THIS WILL PUSH SHOWERS OUT OF THE FAR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRI NGT AS
ARTHUR MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE HIGH. WITH THE CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY PEAK MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S FOR A COLD 4TH.
ON SAT THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BUT
EXTEND NORTH INTO ONTARIO PROVIDING THE OUR CWA WITH DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER FRI NGT TO SAT NGT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY BUT WARMER THAN FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF ACTIVE WEATHER THIS AFTN...MED RNG FSCT
INCORPORATED HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH LOOKED VERY GOOD. PTRN WILL
FAVOR A BROAD UPR TROF WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVG THRU...LEADING TO A
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE WITH A FNTL SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE RGN MON NGT/TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SECONDARY TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
AT 06Z, HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. OVERALL LOW MVFR
TO CLOSE TO AIRPORT MINS WILL PERSIST OVER THE TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK AS LOW
LEVEL DRYING AND MIXING OCCURS. BY 13Z-14Z, SKIES WILL IMPROVE TO
BKN LOW VFR FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD WITH FAIR WX STRATO CU. THIS
EVENING SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. AT KAVP, MOISTURE FROM ARTHUR WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LOW MVFR SHOWERS THROUGH 10Z.
LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS. BY MID
MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS. LIGHT
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUN...VFR.
MON...VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KELM.
MON NGT/TUE...MVFR PSBL IN SCT TSRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
410 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING ACROSS NORTHEAST SD THIS EARLY
MORNING ALONG AN ELEVATED BAND OF INSTABILITY...WITH A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE SHOWING. RUC AND HRRR HAVE THIS BAND PERSISTING THRU
MID MORNING AS IT EXPANDS ACROSS SERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
THEN THIS BAND CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO NERN ND AND NORTHWEST
MN BY MIDDAY...WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SHEAR LEAD TO FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVELS CAPE /+500 J/KG/ AND LOW
LEVEL /0 TO 2 KM LAYER/ VGP EXCEEDING 0.2 UNITS. SPC HAS
IDENTIFIED THIS AREA AS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH A 5
PERCENT RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO. WOULD EXPECT THIS THREAT TO BE
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER FROM MID AFTERNOON ON...
SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST MN FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.
A CHASER SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY ON SATURDAY.. WITH MOTTLED CLOUD COVER
AND SOMETHING OF A STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH THE
DAY. AN APPROACHING MID LVL SHORTWV TROF LOOKS TO DISRUPT THAT CAP
STARTING INTO NORTHWEST ND BY LATE AFTERNOON... AND PROGRESSING
INTO NORTHEAST ND LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN...A SIGNAL AMONG
MOST MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
SATURDAY NIGHT ROUNDING THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE WOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION...WITH SOME SORT OF MCS SATURDAY
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE MUCH STRONGER...WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVING INTO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN REGION EARLY ON
SUNDAY.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE WEEK...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
MON-TUE TIME FRAME...WITH AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWERS/STORMS.
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...A GRADUAL FLATTENING OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED.
PRECIP CHANCES MAY DECREASE FOR MID-WEEK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER FORCING...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WARMING BACK UP BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH AND THEN INCREASING BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE
20 KTS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SETTLING DOWN OF WINDS AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
THE RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME PRECIP ENTERING THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 12Z. STILL NOT SURE THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE AT THAT POINT...BUT WITH A FEW BLIPS
BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS IN
OUR SOUTH FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP IN
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEAR DAWN. THINK THAT IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE
BIT TO SATURATE DOWN TO THE SFC...SO KEPT THINGS DRY FOR NOW AND
WILL REEVALUATE IN A FEW HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
NO CHANGES OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN QUIET...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING LATER ON FRIDAY. 12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH ANY INDIVIDUAL
SOLUTION.
THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ACROSS WESTERN IDAHO THAT WILL RIDE OVER
THE RIDGE...AND BRING WEAK FORCING TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP TONIGHT...AND SHOULD ADVECT IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE 850MB WIND SHIFT. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT STORMS WILL
INITIALIZE TO THE WEST...THEN MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SHIFTING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN SCATTERED CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND SPC INDICATES A 5%
PROBABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
BORDERLINE (@30 KNOTS)...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY DEPEND
ON ACTUAL INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WARM 900MB-700MB TEMPERATURES WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A STRONG CAP
WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO PLENTY OF SOLAR...WITH VERY WARM MAX TEMPS EXPECTED.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS MOST MODELS
INDICATE DEW POINT VALUES INTO THE LOW 70S (WHICH IS POSSIBLE WITH
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION BECOMING STRONGER). THERE IS...AND HAS BEEN...A
SIGNAL AMONG MOST MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT ROUNDING THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE WOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION...WITH SOME SORT OF MCS
SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE MUCH STRONGER...WITH
THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SPC INDICATES A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN REGION (ON THE EDGE
OF THE CAP) FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
ON SUNDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY...BUT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON WITH COLDER UPPER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.
NET RESULT WILL BE ILL-TIMED SHORT WAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. COMBINED WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN THE PERIOD ANY SHORT
WAVE COULD CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE KEPT THE
20-30 POPS IN THERE FROM THE BLEND OF THE MODELS AS EACH RUN AND
EACH MODEL AS DIFFERENT ONES. OVERALL THOUGH 12Z GFS WETTER THAN
12Z ECMWF/GEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH AND THEN INCREASING BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE
20 KTS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SETTLING DOWN OF WINDS AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
530 AM MST FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
HUMIDITIES...AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
QUITE AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS WIDESPREAD
BLOWING DUST AFFECTED THE PHOENIX METRO AREA. COLLIDING BOUNDARIES
OVER THE METRO AROUND 03Z ALLOWED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO BE
UTILIZED AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PHOENIX AREA SAW MEASURABLE
PRECIP /SOME SPOTS SAW NEARLY AN INCH OF RAINFALL/. ELEVATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN MARICOPA/YUMA/LA PAZ
COUNTIES AS OF 08Z...WITH A SECONDARY CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH PIMA COUNTY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
THERE ARE STILL A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH IN THESE AREAS BUT SURFACE INHIBITION HAS INCREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...I EXPECT THAT WE ARE GOING TO
SEE THESE SHOWERS PERCOLATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
BEFORE FIZZLING OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. GIVEN THEIR ELEVATED
NATURE...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
AS USUAL...THE FORECAST IS QUITE COMPLICATED AS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE INGREDIENTS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...EVEN ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
THE MODELS IS THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
/PWATS AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES/ AND SUFFICIENT MLCAPES AROUND
500-700 J/KG. THE NAM/GFS/EURO/RAP ALL INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SONORA WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SUBTLE DARKENING/DRYING OVER CENTRAL
SONORA. HOWEVER THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THAT RESIDES ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF ARIZONA. GOING TO BE HARD TO
DESTABILIZE IF THIS THICK CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE ALL DAY AND
IF THINGS DONT CLEAR OUT AT LEAST A LITTLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...IT
MAY END UP MUCH LESS ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
HOWEVER...STEERING LEVEL WINDS IN THE 700-500MB LAYER ARE CURRENTLY
ADVECTING CLEAR SKIES INTO FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO SO THERE IS SOME
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THINGS WILL CLEAR OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INHERITED FORECAST CONTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND I ONLY MADE SLIGHT TEMPORAL CHANGES...FOCUSING
MORE ON THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME THAN ANYTHING ELSE. I WILL INTRODUCE A
MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST INTO THE FORECAST AS DUST IS
CERTAINLY A THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE OPEN DESERTS. HOWEVER WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THAT MAY HELP KEEP THE DUST SETTLED
DOWN A BIT.
ACTIVE PATTERN FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL PWATS EACH AFTERNOON AND MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. MUCH OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
DICTATED BY WHERE AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY /LINGERING
BOUNDARIES...HOW WORKED OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS...ETC.../ SO I
WILL KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHED APPROACH TO THE POPS AND KEEP THEM WELL
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK HOWEVER THE ONLY DAY TO
FEATURE ANY SORT OF NOTEWORTHY INVERTED TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IS
TUESDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES OR
IF THIS IS JUST CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BEING ADVECTED WITH THE MEAN
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A CLIMO-LIKE APPEARANCE
TO THE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGHLIGHTING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THAT OCCURRED THIS EVENING...I WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY...ONLY TOPPING OUT JUST ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
AS PWATS CHANGE LITTLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH THE IDEA OF HIGHS AROUND 102-105
EACH AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...EVENING CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN SOME RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 80S OR EVEN LOWER 90S. OF COURSE OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT BUT WILL STICK WITH THE IDEA OF VERY
WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS...BASES GENERALLY AOA FL150...FROM LAST NIGHTS
STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE THINNING OUT.
ANTICIPATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE USUAL HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE METRO AREA...MAINLY RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. OUTFLOWS AND DUST FROM DISTANT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE LESS INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LEADING
TO WEAKER AND FEWER STORMS ON THE LOW DESERTS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA. A
FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE PRESENCE OF WEAK CIRCULATION FEATURES IN
THE FLOW ALREADY OVER ARIZONA AS WELL AS A LARGER VORT MAX CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ. REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW THESE
FEATURES WILL INFLUENCE THINGS. TAFS REFLECT CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WITH BASES ABOVE FL150 WILL LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN SEA OF
CORTEZ WILL MAY MAINTAIN CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN
INCREASE IT. IT COULD ALSO BE A FACTOR IN AIDING STORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO INHIBIT INSTABILITY AND IN TURN
STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS DOES LACK OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS TAFS DO NOT
DEPICT STORM ACTIVITY BUT THAT COULD VERY WELL CHANGE LATER THIS
MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ELEVATED STORM CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT EVEN PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER DESERTS COULD SEE RAINFALL. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. GIVEN THE INCREASED
HUMIDITIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL .
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM INDUCED OUTFLOWS...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
QUIET AND SHOULD FOLLOW THE USUAL UPSLOPE/DRAINAGE PATTERNS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
918 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
THEN MOVE UP TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...TO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED FOR MOST OF THE MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE AND THE REST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE PHL
METRO AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MIDDLESEX COUNTY.
ARTHUR`S EYE IS ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FENWICK ISLAND
DELAWARE. ARTHUR CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. WE ARE NOW SEEING
THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE PCPN BAND HITTING A WALL EAST OF I95
AND THE NJ TURNPIKE. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND COSPA WE HAVE
USED THEM AS A BASIS FOR CANCELLING THE WATCH. FARTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST PCPN ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS A WINTER
DEFORMATION ZONE LOOK TO IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. IT LOOKS
AS THOUGH WHEN THE LIFT EXITS THIS BAND LATER THIS MORNING, IT
WILL JUST RAIN ITSELF OUT.
SEMI-DOWN DELAWARE BAY FLOW AND POSSIBLE HEAVY PCPN TRANSPORTING
STRONGER WINDS DOWNWARD HAVE ENHANCED WINDS ON THE DELAWARE SIDE OF
THE BAY, AND WE HAVE INCREASED FORECAST WINDS FOR TODAY AND ARE
COVERING IT WITH SMW(S) AND SPS(S). IF IT NO LONGER BECOMES JUST
A PCPN ENHANCEMENT WE MAY ISSUE SOME SHORT FUSED WIND RELATED
ADVISORIES, GALES.
WE SLOWED THE ASCENT OF TEMPS THIS MORNING, NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT
MAX TEMPS BEING REACHED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL/SRN NJ AND THE SERN
DELMARVA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWS A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN FORMING
OVER THE SRN DELMARVA AND OFF THE NJ COAST AS THE OUTER BANDS OF
ARTHUR INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS BAND TO
PROGRESS NWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2
INCHES PER HR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THIS BAND. IT WON`T TAKE MUCH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING WITH THE GROUND
ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS (DUAL-POL RADAR ESTIMATES
FROM KDOX INDICATED A SWATH OF 3-7 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN LAST
NIGHT IN SRN PORTIONS OF TALBOT AND CAROLINE COUNTIES).
HURRICANE ARTHUR`S TRACK IS BECOMING INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND HAS STARTED ITS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HAS ACCELERATED IN SPEED. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK TAKES ARTHUR
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE DELMARVA AND NJ COAST TO SPARE DIRECT
WIND/STORM SURGE IMPACTS FROM THE HURRICANE.
THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AS WELL AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS STALLED OVER EASTERN
PA...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS THIS MRNG. CYCLONIC FLOW
ON NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT MOVES NEWD THIS MRNG. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND NEAR THE NJ COAST THIS
MRNG. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF IS PICKING UP ON THIS FAIRLY WELL.
ACCORDINGLY, THERE IS STILL A HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS. WHILE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
STILL IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE CWA THIS MRNG (AND FOR THE
DELMARVA/SRN NJ THRU THE AFTN), THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA AS THE
INSTABILITY REQUIRED FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WANES. WILL LIKELY
BE ABLE TO TRIM BACK THESE N/W PORTIONS OF THE WATCH LATER THIS
MRNG.
NW FLOW AROUND THE HURRICANE WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY
MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN. DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE
CWA BUT DID FCST LOW 80S FOR THE DELMARVA AND PHILLY METRO WHERE
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND LATER IN THE AFTN. NW
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTN AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
WITH PLENTY OF FIREWORKS SCHEDULED FOR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
(WHICH IS AROUND 830 PM), SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
IN TIME ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER COASTAL AREAS.
THE MAIN WX-RELATED IMPACT FOR FIREWORKS WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT (FOR JULY STANDARDS) WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA AS HIPRES BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND HURRICANE ARTHUR
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME. NW WINDS
MAY GUST 25-35 MPH DURING THE EARLY EVENING BUT WILL START TO
DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SCHEDULED FIREWORKS TIME.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 5-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMP
FCST WEIGHTED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINING WELL MIXED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SAT AND SUN...ARTHUR WILL BE WELL NE OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SAT AND THE
SWELLS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AT THE OCEAN. THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS CONTINUES A DECENT TRACK RECORD OF
FAIR WEATHER WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY IN THE LOW 80S AND A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER SUN. A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN DE ON
SUNDAY.
MON...A WEAK H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE LOW
PRESSURE TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
WILL CREATE A RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL CAUSE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO RISE
ONCE AGAIN. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK MON WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS MOST
AREAS. THERE IS A SMALL CHC FOR A SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS THE FAR
N/W...BUT OTHER THAN THAT DRY ACROSS A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
TUE AND WED...THERE IS A BETTER CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SLOWS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...FURTHER SLOWING IT WED. THERE IS
A CHC OR SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON BOTH DAYS IN MOST AREAS.
THE N/W AREAS ARE MOST FAVORED. TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
BOTH DAYS WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS. (COOLER ACROSS THE SRN
POCONOS AND A BIT WARMER OVER SRN DELAWARE).
THU...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...SO
THE CHCS FOR PCPN WILL BE LESS THAN THE EARLIER FEW DAYS. WE WILL
STILL KEEP A SMALL CHC FOR A SHOWER/TSTM AS OFFERED BY WPC. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MRNG DESPITE AREAS OF SHRA OVER
THE AREA. A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN MODERATE SHRA THIS MRNG AND
BRIEFLY/LOCALIZED IFR RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY SHRA. NLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THRUOUT THE DAY AS HURRICANE ARTHUR TRACKS EAST OF THE NRN
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GUST TO 20 KT THIS MRNG AND TO 30 KT BETWEEN
ABOUT 18Z-00Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TNGT AFTER SUNSET TO 10-15 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS SAT.
TUE...VFR WITH SCT AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH/WESTERN
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEMI-DOWN DELAWARE BAY FLOW AND POSSIBLE HEAVY PCPN TRANSPORTING
STRONGER WINDS DOWNWARD HAVE ENHANCED WINDS ON THE DELAWARE SIDE OF
THE BAY, AND WE HAVE INCREASED FORECAST WINDS FOR TODAY AND ARE
COVERING IT WITH SMW(S) AND SPS(S). IF IT NO LONGER BECOMES JUST
A PCPN ENHANCEMENT WE MAY ISSUE SOME SHORT FUSED WIND RELATED
ADVISORIES, GALES.
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATER THIS MRNG AS HURRICANE ARTHUR MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. WIND/WAVE HAZARDS COVERED BY SCA BUT PLEASE NOTE
WINDS THAT WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ COAST THIS AFTN. THE 00Z GFS
INDICATES TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FOR THESE ZONES WHILE MAJORITY
OF OTHER GUIDANCE, INCLUDING FROM NHC, KEEP THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ABOUT 25-50 MILES EAST OF THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES.
HIGH SURF CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET THIS AFTN
AND TNGT WHEN ARTHUR IS CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WILL DIMINISH LATE.
SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS UNTIL EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS
WILL APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS.
MON...SCA POSSIBLE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
BECAUSE OF ARTHUR`S PASS COINCIDING WITH THE START OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT, EVEN IF WE WILL FALL A BIT SHORT OF CRITERIA. WE
ALSO ARE ANTICIPATING A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
THIS POSES A HUGE CONCERN CONSIDERING THE LARGE NUMBERS OF
PEOPLE, INCLUDING THE LESS EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS, WHO WILL VENTURE
OUT DURING ONE OF THE BIGGEST BEACH WEEKENDS OF THE YEAR. THE
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ON LAND THIS WEEKEND COULD LEAD TO A
FALSE SENSE OF SAFETY IN THE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE-THREATENING IF YOU/RE NOT PREPARED TO
HANDLE THEM. FOR THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SAFETY...SWIM ONLY UNDER
THE WATCHFUL EYES OF LIFEGUARDS. OTHERWISE ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR
RESCUE CAN SUFFER FROM A MUCH GREATER RESPONSE DELAY AND BE FATAL.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ014-
020>027.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ014-024>026.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ012-013.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ004.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
THEN MOVE UP TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...TO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ERN PA...NWRN NJ AND
CECIL COUNTY IN MD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
INTO THESE AREAS BUT RAINFALL RATES WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
THUS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FLASH FLOODING.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL/SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWS A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN
FORMING OVER THE SRN DELMARVA AND OFF THE NJ COAST AS THE OUTER
BANDS OF ARTHUR INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS
BAND TO PROGRESS NWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. RAINFALL
RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THIS BAND. IT
WON`T TAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS (DUAL-POL RADAR
ESTIMATES FROM KDOX INDICATED A SWATH OF 3-7 INCHES OF RAIN HAD
FALLEN LAST NIGHT IN SRN PORTIONS OF TALBOT AND CAROLINE COUNTIES).
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HURRICANE ARTHUR IS LOCATED NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AS OF 3 AM WITH A MIN
SLP OF 973 MB. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING INFLUENCED BY
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND HAS STARTED ITS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HAS ACCELERATED IN SPEED. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK TAKES
ARTHUR FAR ENOUGH OFF THE DELMARVA AND NJ COAST TO SPARE DIRECT
WIND/STORM SURGE IMPACTS FROM THE HURRICANE.
THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AS WELL AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS STALLED OVER EASTERN
PA...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS THIS MRNG. CYCLONIC FLOW
ON NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT MOVES NEWD THIS MRNG. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND NEAR THE NJ COAST THIS
MRNG. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF IS PICKING UP ON THIS FAIRLY WELL.
ACCORDINGLY, THERE IS STILL A HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS. WHILE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
STILL IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE CWA THIS MRNG (AND FOR THE
DELMARVA/SRN NJ THRU THE AFTN), THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA AS THE
INSTABILITY REQUIRED FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WANES. WILL LIKELY
BE ABLE TO TRIM BACK THESE N/W PORTIONS OF THE WATCH LATER THIS
MRNG.
NW FLOW AROUND THE HURRICANE WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY
MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN. DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE
CWA BUT DID FCST LOW 80S FOR THE DELMARVA AND PHILLY METRO WHERE
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND LATER IN THE AFTN. NW
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTN AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
WITH PLENTY OF FIREWORKS SCHEDULED FOR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
(WHICH IS AROUND 830 PM), SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
IN TIME ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER COASTAL AREAS.
THE MAIN WX-RELATED IMPACT FOR FIREWORKS WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT (FOR JULY STANDARDS) WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA AS HIPRES BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND HURRICANE ARTHUR
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME. NW WINDS
MAY GUST 25-35 MPH DURING THE EARLY EVENING BUT WILL START TO
DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SCHEDULED FIREWORKS TIME.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 5-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMP
FCST WEIGHTED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINING WELL MIXED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SAT AND SUN...ARTHUR WILL BE WELL NE OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SAT AND THE
SWELLS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AT THE OCEAN. THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS CONTINUES A DECENT TRACK RECORD OF
FAIR WEATHER WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY IN THE LOW 80S AND A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER SUN. A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN DE ON
SUNDAY.
MON...A WEAK H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE LOW
PRESSURE TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
WILL CREATE A RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL CAUSE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO RISE
ONCE AGAIN. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK MON WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS MOST
AREAS. THERE IS A SMALL CHC FOR A SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS THE FAR
N/W...BUT OTHER THAN THAT DRY ACROSS A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
TUE AND WED...THERE IS A BETTER CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SLOWS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...FURTHER SLOWING IT WED. THERE IS
A CHC OR SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON BOTH DAYS IN MOST AREAS.
THE N/W AREAS ARE MOST FAVORED. TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
BOTH DAYS WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS. (COOLER ACROSS THE SRN
POCONOS AND A BIT WARMER OVER SRN DELAWARE).
THU...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...SO
THE CHCS FOR PCPN WILL BE LESS THAN THE EARLIER FEW DAYS. WE WILL
STILL KEEP A SMALL CHC FOR A SHOWER/TSTM AS OFFERED BY WPC. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MRNG DESPITE AREAS OF SHRA OVER
THE AREA. A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN MODERATE SHRA THIS MRNG AND
BRIEFLY/LOCALIZED IFR RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY SHRA. NLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THRUOUT THE DAY AS HURRICANE ARTHUR TRACKS EAST OF THE NRN
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GUST TO 20 KT THIS MRNG AND TO 30 KT BETWEEN
ABOUT 18Z-00Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TNGT AFTER SUNSET TO 10-15 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS SAT.
TUE...VFR WITH SCT AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH/WESTERN
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATER THIS MRNG AS HURRICANE ARTHUR MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. WIND/WAVE HAZARDS COVERED BY SCA BUT PLEASE NOTE
WINDS THAT WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ COAST THIS AFTN. THE 00Z GFS
INDICATES TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FOR THESE ZONES WHILE MAJORITY
OF OTHER GUIDANCE, INCLUDING FROM NHC, KEEP THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ABOUT 25-50 MILES EAST OF THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES.
HIGH SURF CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET THIS AFTN
AND TNGT WHEN ARTHUR IS CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WILL DIMINISH LATE.
SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS UNTIL EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS
WILL APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS.
MON...SCA POSSIBLE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
BECAUSE OF ARTHUR`S PASS COINCIDING WITH THE START OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT, EVEN IF WE WILL FALL A BIT SHORT OF CRITERIA. WE
ALSO ARE ANTICIPATING A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
THIS POSES A HUGE CONCERN CONSIDERING THE LARGE NUMBERS OF
PEOPLE, INCLUDING THE LESS EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS, WHO WILL VENTURE
OUT DURING ONE OF THE BIGGEST BEACH WEEKENDS OF THE YEAR. THE
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ON LAND THIS WEEKEND COULD LEAD TO A
FALSE SENSE OF SAFETY IN THE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE-THREATENING IF YOU/RE NOT PREPARED TO
HANDLE THEM. FOR THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SAFETY...SWIM ONLY UNDER
THE WATCHFUL EYES OF LIFEGUARDS. OTHERWISE ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR
RESCUE CAN SUFFER FROM A MUCH GREATER RESPONSE DELAY AND BE FATAL.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ014-
020>027.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ014-024>026.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ012-013-015>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ004.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
.UPDATE...
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HURRICANE ARTHUR CENTERED
EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES AND ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD. A
TRAILING TROUGH FROM ARTHUR EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA THIS MORNING. ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES ARE LOCATED ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...SHOWN VIA THE CONTRAST IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR (PWAT) VALUES WHEN COMPARING THE MORNING
SOUNDINGS AT JACKSONVILLE (PWAT=1.96 INCHES) AND TALLAHASSEE
(PWAT=1.35 INCHES). IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...DEWPOINTS IN
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ARE FALLING INTO THE UPPER
50S...WHILE DEWPOINTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS GAINESVILLE AND PALATKA. DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WHERE PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND ARW INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH BEGINNING AROUND 18Z...GENERALLY FOR
LOCATIONS FROM AMELIA ISLAND TO LAKE CITY AND POINTS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD. WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A FEW STRONGER PULSE STORMS POSSIBLE IN
COASTAL NORTHEAST FL AS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE PINNED
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. GIVEN DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WEAK STEERING FLOW...GUSTY WINDS AND SLOW MOVING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS TODAY. HIGHS IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL LIKELY
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BEFORE
MID-AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. ACTIVITY IN COASTAL ST.
JOHNS/FLAGLER AND AREAS SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE MAY LINGER INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH 16Z AT GNV...OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT GNV
AFTER 19Z...PRODUCING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS 20Z AT THE DUVAL
COUNTY TERMINALS...AND WE WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
JAX...CRG...AND VQQ IN THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE FOR A PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS...LIKELY OCCURRING BETWEEN 20Z-24Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL REGION-WIDE TOWARDS 01Z.
&&
.MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES WERE DROPPED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. SEAS OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO
3-5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND 2-4 FEET TONIGHT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST FL WATERS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS
GENERATED BY DEPARTING HURRICANE ARTHUR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 94 70 94 71 / 0 10 20 20
SSI 91 75 88 75 / 10 10 20 20
JAX 94 73 93 72 / 30 30 30 30
SGJ 91 74 89 74 / 50 50 30 30
GNV 92 70 93 71 / 50 30 40 40
OCF 91 71 92 71 / 50 40 40 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
NELSON/SANDRIK/GUILLET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1024 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
THERE WERE SOME CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PWAT OF AROUND
1.9 INCHES. IN ADDITION THERE ARE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. WITH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES EXPECTED TODAY...INITIATION OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. BUT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERLY WINDS COULD HELP TO SHIFT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR MODEL...SUGGESTS THIS
TREND AS WELL. SO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE ADDED TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS BUT MAINLY EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE 12Z SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED SOME LAYERS OF
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE SO SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION
THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE IS FAVORABLE.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCT TSRA AFT 19-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH
COASTS AROUND 17Z WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARIES.
THE STEERING FLOW IS ERRATIC THIS MORNING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THUS, TSRA MOVEMENT
WITH INTERACTIONS BETWEEN BOUNDARIES WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC SO
ONLY PLACED VCTS IN THE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME BUT THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIG/VSBY FAVORING THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AND
WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA FOR TODAY. GIVEN THE NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OF TONIGHT,
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. LOOKING AT MODEL WINDS, THE STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A GULF BREEZE WILL DEVELOP,
TURNING THE WINDS SOMEWHAT MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SHOWS UP, BUT
VERY WEAK AND DOES NOT LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL BE ABLE TO PENETRATE
TOO FAR INLAND, MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE SW FLOW. THIS MAKES THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE AREA TO BE IN THE INTERIOR, WITH THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AREAS OF BROWARD, PALM BEACH, AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES, AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN AREAS OF COLLIER, GLADES, AND HENDRY COUNTIES.
HOWEVER, AS WITH MOST AFTERNOONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA, CAN NOT RULE
OUT ANY LOCATION ACROSS THE AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR THEIR INTENSITY, YESTERDAY LOOKED SOMEWHAT BETTER. TODAY,
THE 500MB TEMP IS -6.8C. THE 700-500MB LAPSE RATE IS RIGHT AROUND
6 C/KM. THE NCAPE IS AROUND .15 AND CAPE IS LESS THAN 2000 JOULES.
SO,. THIS ADDS UP TO MAINLY GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
THERE IS A DRY LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS THAT COLD HELP BRING A FEW
STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER,
ONLY EXPECTING DOWNDRAFTS OF 40-50 MILES PER HOUR AT THIS TIME.
THE FREEZING LEVEL IS AROUND 15000, WHICH MAKES HAIL DIFFICULT,
AND IF IT DOES FORM, IT SHOULD KEEP IT ON THE SMALL SIDE.
AFTER TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
TURN THE FLOW MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST. WITH THIS CHANGE,
MORE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT FROM THE EASTERN
INTERIOR, TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. THIS WILL
PERSIST WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFORE
MENTIONED AREA EACH AFTERNOON. IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THERE WILL
BE SOME MARITIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC. SOME
OF THESE MAY MAKE THEIR WAY ONSHORE, THE DISSIPATE OVER THE
ATLANTIC METRO AREAS. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
KEEP THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA, AS WELL AS,
KEEP MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THE THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION...
A LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHWEST TO THE GULF WATERS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY APPROACH KAPF AND KPBI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING...ALTHOUGH LEFT ANY VICINITY MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR
NOW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...DELAYED THE ONSET OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST COAST SITES UNTIL 20Z AS MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES DEPICT CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
MARINE...
WITH HURRICANE ARTHUR MOVING AWAY, MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. THERE WILL BE A 1 FOOT SWELL THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. THERE ALSO MAY BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS, MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 78 88 77 / 40 30 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 80 87 79 / 30 30 20 20
MIAMI 90 79 88 78 / 30 30 20 20
NAPLES 89 79 87 78 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....60/BD
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
900 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...SCATTERED STORMS MOVING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING YIELDED A DEEP RELATIVELY MOIST
PROFILE WITH PWATS INVOF 2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL FL. THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE IS SLIGHTLY DRIER AS EVIDENCED BY WV IMAGERY
AND THE GPS SATELLITE ESTIMATE. A SEASONALLY FAVORABLE REGIME (DEEP
SW FLOW) ALONG WITH AMPLE SFC HEATING WL LEAD TO RATHER EARLY ONSET
OF EASTWARD MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS. 3KM HRRR DERIVED REFLECTIVITY
IMAGERY SHOWS THE INITIAL PCPN ASCD WITH AN EASTWARD GULF BOUNDARY
WL LEAD TO SCT SHRA/TS MOVING ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
AFTN AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ECFL AREA FROM EARLY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY WL BE ENHANCED BY MID LVL VORTICITY/SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES
ALONG TO JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A HIGH COVERAGE
COVERAGE OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL SECTIONS IS
ANTICIPATED.
TEMPS AT H5 ARE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...SO THE MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
WITH A FEW WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL MOVE NE ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS WITH THE MID LYR SW FLOW BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
REACHING THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FROM PREVIOUS) SCT TSRA WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 18Z AND AFFECT NRN TERMINALS BTWN
19Z-22Z. SW STEERING FLOW WILL BRING STORMS TOWARD THE COAST FROM
KDAB-KMLB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FOR SRN TERMINALS...ISOLD
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BY EARLY TO
MID AFTN WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER TSRA CHC IN THE LATE AFTN. SOME
CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
00Z-03Z...MAINLY NRN TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...S-SW WINDS TO 10-15 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR
SHORE AND UP TO 3-4 FT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING POSING A HAZARD FOR BOATERS ON THIS INDEPENDENCE
DAY.
SAT-TUE...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING
BACK NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND PERSISTING OVER THE REGION.
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS OUT OF THE S/SW OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
S/SE DURING THE DAY AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2-3 FEET
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...JP
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER...RL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
608 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST TODAY WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY. THE MODELS
INDICATED MID-LEVEL CAPPING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT. THE 06Z HRRR AND 00Z SPC WRF DISPLAYED JUST
ISOLATED SHOWERS. MAINTAINED THE FORECAST OF POPS LESS THAN 10
PERCENT. USED THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE
WILL GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND RECENT VERIFICATION.
THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS INDICATED MID-LEVEL CAPPING CONTINUING.
ALL OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV MOS
HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT.
THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAYED A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGING WITH
TROUGHING BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOWED SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA WITH SOME LEE-SIDE TROUGHING HERE. THE
PATTERN SUPPORTS SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GFS...ECMWF... AND EKD MOS HAD POPS OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE INDICATED
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH
READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HURRICANE ARTHUR CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND IS NOW OFF THE
VIRGINIA CAPES. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF HURRICANE ARTHUR...SHOULD LEAD TO A GENERALLY DRY DAY TODAY.
GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING IS DETERRING FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING.
EXPECT MAINLY SOME AFTERNOON CU WITH DAYTIME HEATING LATER TODAY AND
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS...SHIFTING TO THE NE
BY THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1153 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
LOOKS LIKE A GREAT /AND DRY/ DAY FOR OUTDOOR CELEBRATIONS ACROSS
UPPER MI.
HAVE PULLED SPRINKLES FROM THE FORECAST WHERE THEY WERE MENTIONED
OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVELS ARE
QUITE DRY AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE
DRYNESS. ADDITIONALLY...NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING QPF IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA. THE RAP EVEN CORRECTLY SHOWS THE WEAK SHOWER
OR TWO CURRENTLY N OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...WHICH WERE NOT PRESENT AT
MODEL INITIALIZATION...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA...BUT DISSIPATES THOSE SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE CLOSER
TO THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE CWA. VIRGA SEEMS A MORE LIKELY OUTCOME
THAN SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI /AFTER 03Z SAT/...THE
UPSTREAM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WCENTRAL MN HAS NOT
PANNED OUT QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS HIGH-RES MODEL RUNS
INDICATED. THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP SHOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
PRODUCING 0.01-0.03 INCHES OF QPF FROM GOGEBIC COUNTY MI TO ASHLAND
COUNTY WI. THE LATEST LOCAL HIGH-RES WRF RUN KEEPS THIS AREA DRY.
HAVE CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH 03Z SAT FOR FAR WRN UPPER MI.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHICH CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THERE ARE TWO LARGER WAVES TO NOTE
AND A MORE SUBTLE THIRD WAVE THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FIRST WAVE DROPPED THROUGH THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND PRODUCED SCATTERED/FEW MID CLOUDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL ONLY BRING A
FEW MID CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.P. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE CWA IS EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH FROM
A HIGH CENTERED IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THOSE CONDITIONS HAVE
PRODUCED GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HAS ALLOWED 3AM TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE 40S...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES AT THE NORMAL COLD
SPOTS (DOE LAKE...SPINCICH LATE) IN THE UPPER 30S.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...WHICH LOOKS MORE POTENT THE CURRENT WAVE ON WV
IMAGERY AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...IS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JUST STARTING TO
COME INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS ARE INSISTENT ON THIS WAVE
QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA BY 15Z. THOSE TWO WAVES WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH
EAST AND OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...AS IT MERGES WITH
HURRICANE ARTHUR TONIGHT. BACK TO THIS AREA...THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY...BUT STILL KEEP
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A QUICK WARM-UP AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
LIKE YESTERDAY...THE DEEP MIXING INLAND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CU
DEVELOPMENT AROUND 6-8KFT SO HAVE FOLLOWED 750MB MOISTURE FROM THE
MODELS FOR SKY COVER TODAY. THEREFORE...HAVE CU DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE DAY (GENERALLY 19-20Z AND LATER) AND HAVE THE INTERIOR WEST AND
ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL BECOMING PARTLY TO NEARLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL MOISTURE ON THAT LEVEL IS GENERALLY A
LITTLE DRIER THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH SEEMS TO BE WHY MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING NO PRECIP. THE ONLY MODEL PRODUCING PRECIP
IS THE 00Z NAM...AND EVEN THAT HAS TRIMMED BACK THE QPF FROM WHAT
THE 07/03 12Z/18Z RUNS WERE SHOWING (NOW JUST SHOWING A LITTLE SPECK
OF 0.01IN QPF OVER MARQUETTE COUNTY). THE AREA THAT IS SHOWS
PRECIP MATCHES UP WITH WHERE THE LAKE SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS LIKELY MORE
DUE TO REMAINING IN AN AREA THAT ISN/T EXPERIENCING THE LAKE
STABILITY. A FEW OF THE HIRES MODELS THAT DON/T SPIT OUT QPF DO
INDICATE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON THE MODEL SIMULATED COMP
REFLECTIVITY. THINK THAT THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IS CONTRIBUTING TO
THIS (INVERTED-V LOOK TO THE SOUNDINGS) AND LIMITING PRECIP
ACCUMULATION. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A REALLY THIN SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON (CURRENTLY PRODUCING THE HIGH CLOUDS
NEAR AND EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG)...WHICH COULD AID IN THE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. SINCE THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PERFORMED VERY WELL
YESTERDAY...WOULD HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT THEIR IDEA OF NO PRECIP
TODAY IS REASONABLE. THUS...WILL TRIM BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCES TO
JUST SOME SPRINKLES FOR GENERALLY THE MARQUETTE COUNTY AREA.
SINCE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...A LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN SASKATCHEWAN TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST AND LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHING SOUTH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THINK THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH HELP
FROM A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND MOVE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE AREA
TONIGHT. STORM MOTIONS ARE GENERALLY IN A EASTERLY DIRECTION
AND SIMILAR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK OF THE WAA...SO THINK THAT
THE MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE DOING A DECENT JOB IN TRACKING IT TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUALLY INCREASING SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS OVER THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS TO BE A REALLY NICE EVENING FOR FIREWORKS WITH
TEMPERATURES AT SUNSET IN THE 60S. ONE LAST ITEM TO NOTE. WILL NEED
TO WATCH THE AREA IN EASTERN SD AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. NCEP
WRF RUNS THE AREA WHERE THERE ARE SOME BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS AND
ISOLATE SHOWERS EXPANDING THIS MORNING AND THEN LIFTING TOWARDS THE
FAR WESTERN CWA TOWARDS SUNSET. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOSE TRENDS
THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 547 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
A SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH A WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGHS BRIEFLY GO BACK ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO
TROUGHING ALOFT AND A COOLER AIRMASS FOR EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. MODELS DO HINT THAT BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...MID
JULY...RIDGING ALOFT AND A PERIOD OF WARMER TEMPERATURES
MAY SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AGAIN
THIS WARMUP DOES NOT LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MORE THAN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
SATURDAY...ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO. MODELS SHOW CONVECTION FIRING
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE FRI EVENING OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO NW
ONTARIO ALONG 1000-850 MB THETA-E AXIS...AREA OF 1000+ J/KG ELEVATED
MUCAPE AND AT NOSE OF 35 KT 8H JET MAX. MODELS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE REMNANTS OF THESE STORMS COULD REACH INTO WRN/NCNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NW UPPER MI LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR
THE MOST PART HOWEVER...EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL MAINTAIN A
DIMINISHING TREND TO POPS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE
EVENTUALLY MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND TAKES BEST H85-H7
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH IT. UNDER PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SW
WINDS TO 20-25 KTS...EXPECT TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER 80S
AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN WHERE IT SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WAA ESPECIALLY FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE FROM SCSNTRL CANADA WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA AS COLD FRONT/INSTABILITY AXIS WORKS
EAST TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES. BASED ON WHERE BEST INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED NEAR THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IT LOOKS LIKE STORMS
WOULD INITIATE OVER NRN MN OR NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS AND DIFFLUENT THICKNESS PATTERN WOULD
SUGGEST STORMS SOME STORMS COULD MOVE INTO WRN UPPER MI LATE SAT
NIGHT SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS OVER THESE AREAS WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS TO THE SE AND ERN CWA. GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS.
SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA...POTENTIALLY STRONG OR SEVERE
WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS WNW FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO SEND SHORTWAVES OVER THE AREA...AND SFC COLD FRONT SAGS
SE ACROSS UPPER MI. KEY WILL BE HOW MUCH INSOLATION/HEATING AND SFC
BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED. MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR IS H85 WINDS
VEERING MORE WNW BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CUTTING DOWN ON
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. BEST SHOT OF STRONGER STORMS WOULD
PROBABLY BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY AXIS OF NEAR 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE LOCATED. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON MIXING DOWN H85 TEMPS UP
TO +18C...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. IF THERE IS ENOUGH
SUNSHINE...MAY SEE TEMPS NEAR 90 DEGREES. BEST SHOT OF SUCH WARM
TEMPS WOULD PROBABLY BE SCNTRL CWA AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN.
BEHIND SUNDAY/S COLD FROPA....TROUGHING ALOFT BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW FLOW ALOFT AND PERIODIC SHORTWAVES DROPPING
THROUGH THE FLOW PATTERN COULD TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLD TSRA AT TIMES MON INTO WED...ESPECIALLY INLAND WEST HALF.
OTHERWISE...NORTH TO NORTH WINDS AT THE SFC WILL KEEP STABLIZED LAKE
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPR 50S
TO UPR 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND READINGS IN THE 70S INLAND AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. MODELS HINT AT RIDGING AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST BY THU WITH TEMPS LIKELY REBOUNDING CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL THREE
SITES TODAY. KIWD MAY SWITCH AROUND FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THEN SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. KCMX WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE KSAW WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND NOON FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE AND THEN SWITCH
TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE MICHIGAN BREEZE
MOVES THROUGH. SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH BASED DIURNAL CU (ALONG WITH
SOME VIRGA) AT KSAW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR
KCMX...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THEM SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SITE. FINALLY...MAY NEED LLWS AT KIWD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL
CANADA. SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT THE SURFACE AND
CREATE BORDERLINE VALUES...HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THIS LOW WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO QUEBEC...BUT IT WILL DRAG A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE COOL LAKE SUPERIOR
WATER TEMPERATURES TO HELP DEVELOP A MARINE LAYER THAT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS BELOW 20KTS THROUGH SUNDAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20KTS AS A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF WARM MOIST AIR MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND EXPECTED RAINFALL...WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TITUS
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
910 AM MDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FAIRLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING BUT CHINOOK-TYPE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE PARKED OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. CLOUDS SHOULD DRIFT
MORE SOUTH THAN EAST TODAY AS DRIER AIR IS HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES FROM WA.
LOWERED POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS BEST CHANCE FOR ANYTHING
WOULD MOVE OFF THE SNOWY MTNS INTO PETROLEUM COUNTY. JAMBA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A WEATHER
PATTERN IN SOMEWHAT OF A STATE OF CHANGE FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REGION. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WHICH WAS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS BEEN ALL BUT FLATTENED AND SHIFTED
EASTWARD...LEAVING A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MONTANA WITH
POSSIBLE A SLIGHT WEAK RIDGING EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH STILL IN
PLACE.
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THIS UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL HOLD NEARLY CONSTANT WITH MAYBE A FEW
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SETTING OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT...AND NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE REGION KEEPING THE
DAY MOSTLY SUNNY WITH RIDGING INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
IT SEEMS LATELY THAT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TRYING TO SQUEEZE AS
MUCH PRECIPITATION OUT AS POSSIBLE...BUT OFTEN ARE FAR OVER-
ESTIMATING THESE STORMS. THE HRRR IS MOST GUILTY OF THIS RECENTLY.
WITH THAT IN MIND...FELT I COULD ONLY GIVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
WHERE I COULD SEE SOME SEMBLANCE OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND CUT BACK
AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE WHERE CONSENSUS SHOWED NO PRECIP. EXPECTING ANY
DEVELOPING STORMS TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD AS THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES AMPLIFIES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDING ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER BEFORE DIVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
EASTERN TROF WITH UPPER FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVES AND A LITTLE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY...SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MIDWEEK WITH HOT DRY AIR
SPREADING NORTH FROM THE GREAT BASIN. UPPER LOW SPINS INTO WESTERN
CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AGAIN. GFS AND EC
BOTH PUSH WEAK FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA EARLY NEXT FRIDAY BUT
KEEP THE AIRMASS HOT AND DRY. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR. A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO WEST BY AFTERNOON. A FEW HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT IN THE
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND
PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
628 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
SATELLITE AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING THE AREA UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SET UP BETWEEN A TROUGH CONTINUING TO
PUSH TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE
ROCKIES FROM HIGH PRESSURE ROUGHLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT
THE SFC...NO NOTABLE CHANGES...THE CWA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING THOSE SRLY WINDS IN PLACE.
STARTING TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WRN
EDGE OF THE CWA...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND INCREASED LIFT VIA A 30-
40ISH KT LLJ EDGES FURTHER EAST. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWING MUCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THAT WRN EDGE...BUT SHEAR IS FAIRLY LOW. EVEN
NOW MODELS STILL VARY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
KEEP THE POPS GOING ACROSS THE CWA AND SEE HOW THINGS TREND OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
STORMS.
WILL CONTINUE THE POPS INTO THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...BUT THINKING
IS THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. SOME MODELS HINT AT
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH
WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT AT THIS POINT UNLESS OTHER MODELS START
TRENDING THAT WAIT NOT BUYING INTO THAT SOLUTION...AND KEPT THE
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS DRY. BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT
NEED TO MONITOR...AND UPDATE IF IT DOES INDEED HAPPEN/AFFECT MAINLY
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA
TIGHTENS AND MIXING POTENTIAL INCREASES...SUSTAINED SPEEDS THIS
AFTERNOON OF 20-25 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG WITH GUSTS OVER
30 MPH. EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TURNS TO THE
WEST...AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG THAT SFC TROUGH AXIS...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE
PLAINS. THINK THE NAM AND SREF ARE TOO FAST WITH BRINGING THE
ACTIVITY EAST...ALREADY AFFECTING THE WRN CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE RAP/4KM WRF...SHOW THE BETTER
CHANCES COMING POST 00Z. TRIMMED BACK THE POPS A BIT FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING...LATEST RAP SHOWING EVEN AT 01Z THE
BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY IS W/NW OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY THINGS CAN
TREND DIFFERENTLY WITH UPCOMING MODEL RUNS...ANOTHER THING FOR THE
DAY SHIFT TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON...ESP WITH FOLKS WONDERING
WHETHER THEY WILL BE ABLE TO SEE THEIR FIREWORKS SHOWS. WHILE POPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS...STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE...WHICH MAY BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POPS. THAT
UNCERTAINTY EVEN CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES PUSHING EAST BUT
MODELS VARY WITH WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND BETTER CONVERGENCE
WILL END UP...WITH SOME SHOWING ACTIVITY PICKING BACK UP OVER OUR
ERN COUNTIES. PLENTY OF DETAINS YET TO IRON OUT...EVEN THIS CLOSE
TO THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THINKING AS FAR AS STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER GOES HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH...AS THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO KEEPS THAT POTENTIAL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS STILL LOOKING TO
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER STORY OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS A
PROLONGED STRETCH OF NEAR-NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL SUMMER
HEAT...MEANING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MOST DAYS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO RANGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
MID-80S AND LOW-90S...WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXCEEDING THIS
RANGE ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. FOR THOSE WHO ENJOYED THESE PAST FEW
BELOW NORMAL DAYS...THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WILL BE A RUDE
REMINDER THAT IT IS IN FACT JULY. THE INCREASING TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY AS
WELL...WITH DEWS FORECAST TO AVERAGE AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 60S
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA MOST FAVORED TO SEE
DEWPOINTS OCCASIONALLY REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED THE MORE-
OPPRESSIVE 70 DEGREE MARK. AS FOR BOTH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES...SUNDAY IS CURRENTLY SLATED TO BE THE OVERALL-
HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITHIN THE CWA...AND MADE
RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ACTUAL TEMPS
AIMED FROM THE MID-90S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 90S-100
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST KEEPS ALL AREAS AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105+ DEGREES...THERE IS A
DECENT PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA NOW FORECAST TO OBSERVE VALUES IN THE
100-104 RANGE...SO HAVE KEPT THIS NEAR-ADVISORY HEAT INDEX
FORECAST IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).
FORTUNATELY...SUNDAY IS THE ONLY DAY OUT OF THESE 6 FORECAST TO
BREACH THE 100+ HEAT INDEX MARK...THANKS TO A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TEMPERING THE HEAT
A BIT...AND ALSO ALLOWING SURFACE BREEZES TO PREVAIL FROM MORE OF
AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK INSTEAD OF
THE PREVALENT SOUTHERLY DIRECTION EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
SWITCHING GEARS TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...FOR BETTER OR
WORSE THESE 6 DAYS SIGNAL A GENERAL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
PATTERN OF 1-2 WEEKS AGO...MEANING THAT THERE ARE A MULTITUDE OF
FAIRLY LOW 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE MAJORITY OF 12-HOUR
PERIODS...BUT VERY FEW OF THESE PERIODS WILL PROBABLY END UP
HAVING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SO BE SURE TO KEEP THESE MYRIAD CHANCES
ESPECIALLY BEYOND THE FIRST FEW DAYS IN PERSPECTIVE. THAT BEING
SAID...THE ONLY PERIOD THAT CURRENTLY FEATURES MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER 30-40 POPS IS MONDAY NIGHT...SO IF
TRENDS HOLD THIS MAY END UP BEING THE OVERALL-BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES...OBVIOUSLY GIVEN THE RETURN OF TYPICAL SUMMER
HEAT/HUMIDITY THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AROUND MOST OF
THE TIME...BUT ALSO TYPICAL OF SUMMER THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME
WILL PROBABLY HAVE NO BETTER THAN MODEST DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR
AND/OR CAPPING ISSUES. AS A RESULT...THERE IS FAR TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO SAY MUCH ABOUT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK BEYOND
THIS WEEKEND...BUT PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 3 OUTLOOK
THERE COULD BE AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT FOR LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND PROBABLY MORE-SO
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO NEB ZONES FROM
THE NORTH. ALSO...BACKING UP TO RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY
MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG STORMS
LINGERING IN EASTERN ZONES FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY
DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE...BUT ODDS ARE THAT ANY
LEGITIMATE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY THEN.
GETTING MORE INTO METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING THINGS IN
24-HOUR BLOCKS...
SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS REMAINS
THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON CENTRAL PLAINS WEATHER...BUT THE DAYTIME
HOURS START OUT WITH THE LINGERING DEPARTURE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...JUST CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME STORMS LINGERING OVER EASTERN ZONES INTO THE MID-MORNING
HOURS...AND THUS LARGELY MAINTAINED LOW POPS SATURDAY MORNING FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MID-UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF A BIT
AND TURNS THE FLOW MORE NORTHERLY ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH A
LACK OF DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. AS A RESULT...DESPITE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE CONSENSUS OF MOST MODELS AND KEEP SATURDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT
VOID OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POPS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH COULD AT
LEAST SEE SOME ACTIVITY COME VERY CLOSE TO AFFECTING THE CWA. HIGH
TEMPS AIMED FROM LOW 90S NORTHEAST TO MID-UPPER 90S
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE ENHANCED HEAT ASPECT AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE POSSIBLE STRONG-SEVERE STORM RISK LATE IN THE DAY
AND LIKELY MORE SO INTO THE EVENING HAS ALREADY BEEN COVERED
ABOVE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED A BIT BY THE
PASSAGE OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
GENERALLY ALONG THE CANADA BORDER. THIS IN TURN ALLOWS A WEAK BUT
DECENTLY-DEFINED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...POSSIBLY PROMOTING VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT
PRIMARILY WITHIN THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY HERE THOUGH.
MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...A BIT STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE UPPER JET CORE SINKS FARTHER
SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAINTAINED TOKEN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
DAY BUT AS ALREADY MENTIONED THE NIGHT PERIOD FEATURES THE
OVERALL-HIGHEST POPS OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD IN THE 30-40 RANGE AS
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE FAIRLY INSISTENT IN SPARKING POTENTIALLY
VIGOROUS AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPS TEMPER A BIT
FROM SUNDAY...GENERALLY AIMED UPPER 80S NORTH-MID 90S SOUTH.
TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THESE 24 HOURS REMAIN BLANKETED
WITH MAINLY TOKEN 20 POPS AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS ALONG THE
POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT ACTIVE INTERFACE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
DIRECTED ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS RIDGE AND
A VIGOROUS SOUTHEAST CANADA TROUGH. HIGH TEMPS MID 80S NORTH-LOW
90S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOST CONVECTION IN THE REGION COULD
FOCUS SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF THE CWA...BLANKET COVERAGE OF 20 POPS
CONTINUES DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. HIGH TEMPS MID 80S NORTH-LOW 90S
SOUTH.
THURSDAY DAYTIME...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT POPS CONTINUE AREA-WIDE FOR
NOW...THERE ARE VERY EARLY INDICATIONS THAT FLOW ALOFT MAY TURN
MORE ZONAL AND ALLOW WARMER ALOFT TO PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST...POTENTIALLY USHERING IN AT LEAST A BRIEF STRETCH THAT MAY
NOT EVEN BE WORTHY OF 20 POPS IN LATER FORECASTS. HIGH TEMPS VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED MID 80S NORTH-LOW 90S SOUTH...VERY SIMILAR TO
TUES-WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
VFR CONDITIONS STILL GOING FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH PRIMARY
CONCERNS LYING WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WINDS. WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IT AFFECTING EITHER TERMINAL IS LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION OUT AT THIS POINT. WILL SEE HOW RADAR
TRENDS GO. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
THIS EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND INSERTED A VCTS MENTION. WONT SEE A NOTABLE
CHANCE IN WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...REMAINING
SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...EVENTUALLY REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.
SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1004 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
INTERESTING SET-UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. QUICK MOVING
SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND WILL MOVE
THROUGH BROAD 500 HPA RIDGE AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...RAP IS
SHOWING AN AREA OF 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR FROM 40 TO 45 KTS.
BOUNDARY LAYER IS INITIALLY WELL CAPPED THROUGH 18-19 UTC...
ERODING THEREAFTER WITH UPWARDS OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. FURTHER EAST...INSTABILITY IS LESS
BUT STILL AROUND 500 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...BUT THERE EXIST
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0 TO 3 KM VGP VALUES RISE QUICKLY TO
BETWEEN 0.3 AND 0.5 ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST MN. GIVEN
ALL THESE FACTORS...SPC DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK AREA LOOKS GOOD. MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE IF PRIMARY FORCING ALOFT MOVES THROUGH BEFORE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED AFTER THE CAP ERODES.
WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS AND UPDATE POPS TO REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS FROM THE RAP/HRRR...BOTH SHOWING INCREASING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE) FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ND
INTO NORTHWEST MN. STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE VALLEY BY LATE
EVENING. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE WARM AND BREEZY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND A STIFF SOUTHERLY
WIND WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CELLS CONTINUE TO FIRE FROM NERN SD INTO
FAR SERN ND AND THE EDGE OF WCNTRL MN. STILL EXPECT THESE CELLS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING...
REACHING INTO THE FARGO-MOORHEAD AREA THROUGH THE FORENOON.
ELSE... NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST PACKAGE ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING ACROSS NORTHEAST SD THIS EARLY
MORNING ALONG AN ELEVATED BAND OF INSTABILITY...WITH A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE SHOWING. RUC AND HRRR HAVE THIS BAND PERSISTING THRU
MID MORNING AS IT EXPANDS ACROSS SERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
THEN THIS BAND CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO NERN ND AND NORTHWEST
MN BY MIDDAY...WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SHEAR LEAD TO FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVELS CAPE /+500 J/KG/ AND LOW
LEVEL /0 TO 2 KM LAYER/ VGP EXCEEDING 0.2 UNITS. SPC HAS
IDENTIFIED THIS AREA AS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH A 5
PERCENT RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO. WOULD EXPECT THIS THREAT TO BE
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER FROM MID AFTERNOON ON...
SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST MN FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.
A CHASER SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY ON SATURDAY.. WITH MOTTLED CLOUD COVER
AND SOMETHING OF A STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH THE
DAY. AN APPROACHING MID LVL SHORTWV TROF LOOKS TO DISRUPT THAT CAP
STARTING INTO NORTHWEST ND BY LATE AFTERNOON... AND PROGRESSING
INTO NORTHEAST ND LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN...A SIGNAL AMONG
MOST MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
SATURDAY NIGHT ROUNDING THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE WOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION...WITH SOME SORT OF MCS SATURDAY
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE MUCH STRONGER...WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVING INTO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN REGION EARLY ON
SUNDAY.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE WEEK...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
MON-TUE TIME FRAME...WITH AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWERS/STORMS.
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...A GRADUAL FLATTENING OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED.
PRECIP CHANCES MAY DECREASE FOR MID-WEEK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER FORCING...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WARMING BACK UP BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
VFR CONDS WITH INCREASING CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FA THROOUGH THE DAY. ISOLD TSTMS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH MIDDAY WILL BECOME SCT AND EXPAND ACROSS NERN ND AND NWRN
MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING... BECOMING VFR BY
NIGHTFALL.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
650 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CELLS CONTINUE TO FIRE FROM NERN SD INTO
FAR SERN ND AND THE EDGE OF WCNTRL MN. STILL EXPECT THESE CELLS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING...
REACHING INTO THE FARGO-MOORHEAD AREA THROUGH THE FORENOON.
ELSE... NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST PACKAGE ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING ACROSS NORTHEAST SD THIS EARLY
MORNING ALONG AN ELEVATED BAND OF INSTABILITY...WITH A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE SHOWING. RUC AND HRRR HAVE THIS BAND PERSISTING THRU
MID MORNING AS IT EXPANDS ACROSS SERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
THEN THIS BAND CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO NERN ND AND NORTHWEST
MN BY MIDDAY...WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SHEAR LEAD TO FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVELS CAPE /+500 J/KG/ AND LOW
LEVEL /0 TO 2 KM LAYER/ VGP EXCEEDING 0.2 UNITS. SPC HAS
IDENTIFIED THIS AREA AS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH A 5
PERCENT RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO. WOULD EXPECT THIS THREAT TO BE
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER FROM MID AFTERNOON ON...
SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST MN FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.
A CHASER SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY ON SATURDAY.. WITH MOTTLED CLOUD COVER
AND SOMETHING OF A STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH THE
DAY. AN APPROACHING MID LVL SHORTWV TROF LOOKS TO DISRUPT THAT CAP
STARTING INTO NORTHWEST ND BY LATE AFTERNOON... AND PROGRESSING
INTO NORTHEAST ND LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN...A SIGNAL AMONG
MOST MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
SATURDAY NIGHT ROUNDING THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE WOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION...WITH SOME SORT OF MCS SATURDAY
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE MUCH STRONGER...WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVING INTO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN REGION EARLY ON
SUNDAY.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE WEEK...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
MON-TUE TIME FRAME...WITH AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWERS/STORMS.
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...A GRADUAL FLATTENING OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED.
PRECIP CHANCES MAY DECREASE FOR MID-WEEK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER FORCING...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WARMING BACK UP BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
VFR CONDS WITH INCREASING CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FA THROOUGH THE DAY. ISOLD TSTMS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH MIDDAY WILL BECOME SCT AND EXPAND ACROSS NERN ND AND NWRN
MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING... BECOMING VFR BY
NIGHTFALL.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
315 PM MST FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
HUMIDITIES...AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOW A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. EARLIER
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...THOUGH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 50S AND 60S WHILE THE
GPS-IPW AT TEMPE MEASURED AROUND 1.7 INCHES. LATEST MDCRS FLIGHTS
OUT OF PHOENIX SHOW A 15-20 KT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND AN ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NM.
THE PREFERENCE AGAIN IS CLEARLY TOWARDS THE HRRR WHICH HAS CAPTURED
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS WELL. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CIN ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS DUE TO THE
DELAYED INSOLATION. GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW PARALLEL TO THE MOGOLLON
RIM...CONVECTION ALONG THE RIM IS SHOWING LITTLE TENDENCY TO
PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHICH ESSENTIALLY LEAVES CENTRAL AZ IN A LESS
FAVORED AREA. NEVERTHELESS...CONDITIONS REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER DESERTS AS FAR WEST AS
SE CA...INCLUDING YUMA. MAIN THREATS REMAIN BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE PATTERN FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL PWATS EACH AFTERNOON AND MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. MUCH OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
DICTATED BY WHERE AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY /LINGERING
BOUNDARIES...HOW WORKED OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS...ETC.../ SO I
WILL KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHED APPROACH TO THE POPS AND KEEP THEM WELL
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK HOWEVER THE ONLY DAY TO
FEATURE ANY SORT OF NOTEWORTHY INVERTED TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IS
TUESDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES OR
IF THIS IS JUST CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BEING ADVECTED WITH THE MEAN
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A CLIMO-LIKE APPEARANCE
TO THE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGHLIGHTING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THAT OCCURRED THIS EVENING...I WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY...ONLY TOPPING OUT JUST ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
AS PWATS CHANGE LITTLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH THE IDEA OF HIGHS AROUND 102-105
EACH AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...EVENING CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN SOME RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 80S OR EVEN LOWER 90S. OF COURSE OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT BUT WILL STICK WITH THE IDEA OF VERY
WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED WELL NORTH AND
EAST OF PHOENIX...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS. STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR ISOLATED STORMS
TO FORM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS EVEN WITH THE MORE
STABLE AIRMASS DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
STRONG OUTFLOWS AND BLOWING DUST FROM DISTANT STORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...WEATHER AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE NOT
INTRODUCED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
UNCERTAINTY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE
TO INHIBIT DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND IN TURN STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS
TAFS DO NOT CURRENTLY DEPICT STORM ACTIVITY...BUT THAT COULD VERY
WELL CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ELEVATED STORM CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT EVEN PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER DESERTS COULD SEE WETTING RAINS. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
QUITE HIGH WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES DURING THE PERIOD. GIVEN
THE INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM INDUCED OUTFLOWS...
WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AND SHOULD FOLLOW THE USUAL UPSLOPE
DRAINAGE PATTERNS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
220 PM MST FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
HUMIDITIES...AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOW A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. EARLIER
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...THOUGH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 50S AND 60S WHILE THE
GPS-IPW AT TEMPE MEASURED AROUND 1.7 INCHES. LATEST MDCRS FLIGHTS
OUT OF PHOENIX SHOW A 15-20 KT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND AN ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NM.
THE PREFERENCE AGAIN IS CLEARLY TOWARDS THE HRRR WHICH HAS CAPTURED
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS WELL. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CIN ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS DUE TO THE
DELAYED INSOLATION. GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW PARALLEL TO THE MOGOLLON
RIM...CONVECTION ALONG THE RIM IS SHOWING LITTLE TENDENCY TO
PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHICH ESSENTIALLY LEAVES CENTRAL AZ IN A LESS
FAVORED AREA. NEVERTHELESS...CONDITIONS REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER DESERTS AS FAR WEST AS
SE CA...INCLUDING YUMA. MAIN THREATS REMAIN BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST.
&&
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED
TROUGH ACROSS SW AZ. CLOUDINESS AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF AZ. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THE MORNING CLOUDS TEND TO COMPLICATE THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE AND THE FORECAST FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. MODELS IN
GENERAL HAVE NOT INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONCEPTUALLY
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAVORED INITIALLY IN THE CLOUD-FREE AREAS OF
EASTERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MATCHES UP NICELY WITH THE HRRR
ENSEMBLE AND THE FORECAST WILL BE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS THIS
SOLUTION. CONSEQUENTLY...CONVECTION WILL BE INHIBITED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER DESERTS INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THIS
EVENING. INITIAL TWEAK TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO NUDGE POPS UPWARD
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX BUT DOWNWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE PATTERN FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL PWATS EACH AFTERNOON AND MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. MUCH OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
DICTATED BY WHERE AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY /LINGERING
BOUNDARIES...HOW WORKED OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS...ETC.../ SO I
WILL KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHED APPROACH TO THE POPS AND KEEP THEM WELL
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK HOWEVER THE ONLY DAY TO
FEATURE ANY SORT OF NOTEWORTHY INVERTED TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IS
TUESDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES OR
IF THIS IS JUST CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BEING ADVECTED WITH THE MEAN
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A CLIMO-LIKE APPEARANCE
TO THE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGHLIGHTING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THAT OCCURRED THIS EVENING...I WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY...ONLY TOPPING OUT JUST ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
AS PWATS CHANGE LITTLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH THE IDEA OF HIGHS AROUND 102-105
EACH AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...EVENING CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN SOME RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 80S OR EVEN LOWER 90S. OF COURSE OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT BUT WILL STICK WITH THE IDEA OF VERY
WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS...BASES GENERALLY AOA FL150...FROM LAST NIGHTS
STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE THINNING OUT.
ANTICIPATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE USUAL HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE METRO AREA...MAINLY RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. OUTFLOWS AND DUST FROM DISTANT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE LESS INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LEADING
TO WEAKER AND FEWER STORMS ON THE LOW DESERTS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA. A
FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE PRESENCE OF WEAK CIRCULATION FEATURES IN
THE FLOW ALREADY OVER ARIZONA AS WELL AS A LARGER VORT MAX CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ. REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW THESE
FEATURES WILL INFLUENCE THINGS. TAFS REFLECT CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WITH BASES ABOVE FL150 WILL LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN SEA OF
CORTEZ WILL MAY MAINTAIN CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN
INCREASE IT. IT COULD ALSO BE A FACTOR IN AIDING STORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO INHIBIT INSTABILITY AND IN TURN
STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS DOES LACK OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS TAFS DO NOT
DEPICT STORM ACTIVITY BUT THAT COULD VERY WELL CHANGE LATER THIS
MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ELEVATED STORM CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT EVEN PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER DESERTS COULD SEE RAINFALL. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. GIVEN THE INCREASED
HUMIDITIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL .
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM INDUCED OUTFLOWS...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
QUIET AND SHOULD FOLLOW THE USUAL UPSLOPE/DRAINAGE PATTERNS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TUCSON AZ
950 AM MST FRI JUL 4 2014
CORRECTED DISCUSSION TO UPDATE POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SE AZ AT THIS TIME. THE
EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z GENERALLY RANGED
FROM THE MID 50S-MID 60S F...AND THESE TEMPS WERE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F
HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE NEARLY 5-10
DEGS F COOLER VERSUS THIS TIME THUR.
04/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 1.55 INCHES...AN
INCREASE OF 0.25 INCH VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGE PLOT
DEPICTED ABOUT 2-4 DEGS C OF COOLING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN.
THE STEERING FLOW FOR STORM MOTION WAS MORE SELY VERSUS THUR
MORNING. 04/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED 592 DM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NWRN NEW MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SEWD INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT SLY-WLY FLOW PREVAILED
ABOVE 500 MB.
04/14Z RUC HRRR AND 04/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM WERE SIMILAR WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF COMPOSITE REFLECTIVE ECHOES BY 19Z MAINLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF ERN PIMA/SWRN GRAHAM/NRN COCHISE COUNTIES. AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF PRECIP ECHOES WERE THEN PROGGED TO EXIST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON MOSTLY FROM NEAR THE TUCSON METRO AREA EWD TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. WRN PIMA COUNTY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
PRECIP-FREE THIS AFTERNOON...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THESE TWO
MESOSCALE MODELS.
GIVEN THE GRADUAL EROSION OF CLOUDS DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS FROM
TUCSON SEWD...THE AMPLE MOISTURE AND FAVORED STORM MOTION FLOW AS
NOTED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DIAGNOSTICS...HAVE GIVEN INCREASED
CREDENCE TO THESE SOLUTIONS. THUS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS APPROACHING
OR EXCEEDING SEVERE THRESHOLDS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THE RUC HRRR AND U OF AZ WRF-NAM THEN DIFFER ON PRECIP PROSPECTS FOR
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL COVERAGE IS SIMILAR...THE RUC
HRRR FAVORS CENTRAL/ERN SECTIONS VERSUS MORE ACTIVITY WEST TO NORTH
OF TUCSON AS PER THE U OF AZ MODEL. AT THIS TIME...WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS TEMPS
ACHIEVED THUR.
PER COORD WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S AND FAVORING THE RUC HRRR...WILL
REDUCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WRN SECTIONS...AND ADJUST
POPS UPWARD ACROSS ERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. PLEASE REFER
TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/18Z.
ISOLATED MAINLY -SHRA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCT-NUMEROUS
TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR VISIBILITIES TO
OCCUR WITH +TSRA...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50
KTS. TSRA/SHRA COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MAINLY -SHRA SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL
BE AROUND 80-15K FT AGL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STILL
LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...HIGH CONSOLIDATED NORTH OF OUR AREA NOW WITH
INVERTED IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND TO ENHANCE OUR CONVECTION INTO
EARLY WEEKEND. BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THIS FEATURE PUSHES INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH THE EMPHASIS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHIFTING
WITH IT. WE WILL PROBABLY STILL BE ON THE BUSY SIDE SATURDAY...BUT
DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY WITH A COMBINATION OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE IMPULSE AND A FAIRLY WORKED-OVER ATMOSPHERE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE POSITION DEEPER INTO
THE GREAT BASIN NORTHWEST OF US...BUT ECMWF FEATURING ANOTHER
IMPULSE TO FOCUS CONVECTION FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY TUESDAY. WE
WILL RAMP THINGS UP ACCORDINGLY AFTER A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. DEFAULT IS A BLEND OF NAMDNG5 AND ECMWF...WITH CAREFUL
CONSIDERATION FOR HRRR AND VARIOUS WRF ITERATIONS. WELCOME TO THE
MONSOON!
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER
FIRE WEATHER...GLUECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SE AZ AT THIS TIME. THE
EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z GENERALLY RANGED
FROM THE MID 50S-MID 60S F...AND THESE TEMPS WERE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F
HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE NEARLY 5-10
DEGS F COOLER VERSUS THIS TIME THUR.
04/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 1.55 INCHES...AN
INCREASE OF 0.25 INCH VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGE PLOT
DEPICTED ABOUT 2-4 DEGS C OF COOLING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN.
THE STEERING FLOW FOR STORM MOTION WAS MORE SELY VERSUS THUR
MORNING. 04/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED 592 DM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NWRN NEW MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SEWD INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT SLY-WLY FLOW PREVAILED
ABOVE 500 MB.
04/14Z RUC HRRR AND 04/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM WERE SIMILAR WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF COMPOSITE REFLECTIVE ECHOES BY 19Z MAINLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF ERN PIMA/SWRN GRAHAM/NRN COCHISE COUNTIES. AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF PRECIP ECHOES WERE THEN PROGGED TO EXIST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON MOSTLY FROM NEAR THE TUCSON METRO AREA EWD TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. WRN PIMA COUNTY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
PRECIP-FREE THIS AFTERNOON...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THESE TWO
MESOSCALE MODELS.
GIVEN THE GRADUAL EROSION OF CLOUDS DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS FROM
TUCSON SEWD...THE AMPLE MOISTURE AND FAVORED STORM MOTION FLOW AS
NOTED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DIAGNOSTICS...HAVE GIVEN INCREASED
CREDENCE TO THESE SOLUTIONS. THUS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS APPROACHING
OR EXCEEDING SEVERE THRESHOLDS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THE RUC HRRR AND U OF AZ WRF-NAM THEN DIFFER ON PRECIP PROSPECTS FOR
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL COVERAGE IS SIMILAR...THE RUC
HRRR FAVORS CENTRAL/ERN SECTIONS VERSUS MORE ACTIVITY WEST TO NORTH
OF TUCSON AS PER THE U OF AZ MODEL. AT THIS TIME...WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS TEMPS
ACHIEVED THUR.
THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/18Z.
ISOLATED MAINLY -SHRA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCT-NUMEROUS
TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR VISIBILITIES TO
OCCUR WITH +TSRA...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50
KTS. TSRA/SHRA COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MAINLY -SHRA SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL
BE AROUND 80-15K FT AGL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STILL
LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...HIGH CONSOLIDATED NORTH OF OUR AREA NOW WITH
INVERTED IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND TO ENHANCE OUR CONVECTION INTO
EARLY WEEKEND. BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THIS FEATURE PUSHES INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH THE EMPHASIS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHIFTING
WITH IT. WE WILL PROBABLY STILL BE ON THE BUSY SIDE SATURDAY...BUT
DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY WITH A COMBINATION OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE IMPULSE AND A FAIRLY WORKED-OVER ATMOSPHERE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE POSITION DEEPER INTO
THE GREAT BASIN NORTHWEST OF US...BUT ECMWF FEATURING ANOTHER
IMPULSE TO FOCUS CONVECTION FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY TUESDAY. WE
WILL RAMP THINGS UP ACCORDINGLY AFTER A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. DEFAULT IS A BLEND OF NAMDNG5 AND ECMWF...WITH CAREFUL
CONSIDERATION FOR HRRR AND VARIOUS WRF ITERATIONS. WELCOME TO THE
MONSOON!
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER
FIRE WEATHER...GLUECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
920 AM MST FRI JUL 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
HUMIDITIES...AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED
TROUGH ACROSS SW AZ. CLOUDINESS AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF AZ. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THE MORNING CLOUDS TEND TO COMPLICATE THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE AND THE FORECAST FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. MODELS IN
GENERAL HAVE NOT INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONCEPTUALLY
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAVORED INITIALLY IN THE CLOUD-FREE AREAS OF
EASTERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MATCHES UP NICELY WITH THE HRRR
ENSEMBLE AND THE FORECAST WILL BE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS THIS
SOLUTION. CONSEQUENTLY...CONVECTION WILL BE INHIBITED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER DESERTS INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THIS
EVENING. INITIAL TWEAK TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO NUDGE POPS UPWARD
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX BUT DOWNWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUITE AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS WIDESPREAD
BLOWING DUST AFFECTED THE PHOENIX METRO AREA. COLLIDING BOUNDARIES
OVER THE METRO AROUND 03Z ALLOWED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO BE
UTILIZED AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PHOENIX AREA SAW MEASURABLE
PRECIP /SOME SPOTS SAW NEARLY AN INCH OF RAINFALL/. ELEVATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN MARICOPA/YUMA/LA PAZ
COUNTIES AS OF 08Z...WITH A SECONDARY CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH PIMA COUNTY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
THERE ARE STILL A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH IN THESE AREAS BUT SURFACE INHIBITION HAS INCREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...I EXPECT THAT WE ARE GOING TO
SEE THESE SHOWERS PERCOLATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
BEFORE FIZZLING OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. GIVEN THEIR ELEVATED
NATURE...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
AS USUAL...THE FORECAST IS QUITE COMPLICATED AS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE INGREDIENTS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...EVEN ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
THE MODELS IS THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
/PWATS AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES/ AND SUFFICIENT MLCAPES AROUND
500-700 J/KG. THE NAM/GFS/EURO/RAP ALL INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SONORA WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SUBTLE DARKENING/DRYING OVER CENTRAL
SONORA. HOWEVER THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THAT RESIDES ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF ARIZONA. GOING TO BE HARD TO
DESTABILIZE IF THIS THICK CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE ALL DAY AND
IF THINGS DONT CLEAR OUT AT LEAST A LITTLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...IT
MAY END UP MUCH LESS ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
HOWEVER...STEERING LEVEL WINDS IN THE 700-500MB LAYER ARE CURRENTLY
ADVECTING CLEAR SKIES INTO FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO SO THERE IS SOME
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THINGS WILL CLEAR OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INHERITED FORECAST CONTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND I ONLY MADE SLIGHT TEMPORAL CHANGES...FOCUSING
MORE ON THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME THAN ANYTHING ELSE. I WILL INTRODUCE A
MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST INTO THE FORECAST AS DUST IS
CERTAINLY A THREAT ANYWHERE IN THE OPEN DESERTS. HOWEVER WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THAT MAY HELP KEEP THE DUST SETTLED
DOWN A BIT.
ACTIVE PATTERN FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL PWATS EACH AFTERNOON AND MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. MUCH OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
DICTATED BY WHERE AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY /LINGERING
BOUNDARIES...HOW WORKED OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS...ETC.../ SO I
WILL KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHED APPROACH TO THE POPS AND KEEP THEM WELL
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK HOWEVER THE ONLY DAY TO
FEATURE ANY SORT OF NOTEWORTHY INVERTED TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IS
TUESDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES OR
IF THIS IS JUST CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BEING ADVECTED WITH THE MEAN
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A CLIMO-LIKE APPEARANCE
TO THE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGHLIGHTING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THAT OCCURRED THIS EVENING...I WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY...ONLY TOPPING OUT JUST ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
AS PWATS CHANGE LITTLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH THE IDEA OF HIGHS AROUND 102-105
EACH AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...EVENING CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN SOME RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 80S OR EVEN LOWER 90S. OF COURSE OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT BUT WILL STICK WITH THE IDEA OF VERY
WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS...BASES GENERALLY AOA FL150...FROM LAST NIGHTS
STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE THINNING OUT.
ANTICIPATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE USUAL HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE METRO AREA...MAINLY RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. OUTFLOWS AND DUST FROM DISTANT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE LESS INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LEADING
TO WEAKER AND FEWER STORMS ON THE LOW DESERTS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA. A
FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE PRESENCE OF WEAK CIRCULATION FEATURES IN
THE FLOW ALREADY OVER ARIZONA AS WELL AS A LARGER VORT MAX CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ. REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW THESE
FEATURES WILL INFLUENCE THINGS. TAFS REFLECT CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WITH BASES ABOVE FL150 WILL LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN SEA OF
CORTEZ WILL MAY MAINTAIN CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN
INCREASE IT. IT COULD ALSO BE A FACTOR IN AIDING STORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO INHIBIT INSTABILITY AND IN TURN
STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS DOES LACK OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS TAFS DO NOT
DEPICT STORM ACTIVITY BUT THAT COULD VERY WELL CHANGE LATER THIS
MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ELEVATED STORM CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT EVEN PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER DESERTS COULD SEE RAINFALL. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. GIVEN THE INCREASED
HUMIDITIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL .
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM INDUCED OUTFLOWS...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
QUIET AND SHOULD FOLLOW THE USUAL UPSLOPE/DRAINAGE PATTERNS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
252 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WIDELY DISPERSED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. IN GENERAL STORM MOTION IS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH
THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA EXPECTED TO
HAVE THE MOST COVERAGE. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW THIS TREND
AS WELL.
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THEN EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TOWARD HURRICANE
ARTHUR. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT AREA OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND EXTEND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR HAS
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES...I.E. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
MOISTURE...WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
IN GENERAL WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 88 77 86 / 30 40 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 87 79 86 / 30 40 20 40
MIAMI 79 88 78 87 / 30 40 20 40
NAPLES 79 87 78 87 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
150 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TSRA ALREADY UNDERWAY AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SEA BREEZE WELL INLAND FROM THE MIAMI-
DADE TERMINALS SO DELAYED VCTS FOR KOPF, KMIA AND KTMB UNTIL 20Z
WHEN SOME OF CONVECTION COULD MOVE BACK TOWARDS THOSE TERMINALS IN
THE NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IF A TSRA MOVES NEAR THE TERMINAL BUT ONLY PLACED THE
VCTS FOR NOW WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFT 15Z.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
UPDATE...
THERE WERE SOME CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PWAT OF AROUND
1.9 INCHES. IN ADDITION THERE ARE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. WITH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES EXPECTED TODAY...INITIATION OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. BUT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERLY WINDS COULD HELP TO SHIFT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR MODEL...SUGGESTS THIS
TREND AS WELL. SO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE ADDED TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS BUT MAINLY EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE 12Z SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED SOME LAYERS OF
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE SO SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION
THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE IS FAVORABLE.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCT TSRA AFT 19-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH
COASTS AROUND 17Z WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARIES.
THE STEERING FLOW IS ERRATIC THIS MORNING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THUS, TSRA MOVEMENT
WITH INTERACTIONS BETWEEN BOUNDARIES WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC SO
ONLY PLACED VCTS IN THE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME BUT THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIG/VSBY FAVORING THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AND
WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA FOR TODAY. GIVEN THE NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OF TONIGHT,
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. LOOKING AT MODEL WINDS, THE STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A GULF BREEZE WILL DEVELOP,
TURNING THE WINDS SOMEWHAT MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SHOWS UP, BUT
VERY WEAK AND DOES NOT LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL BE ABLE TO PENETRATE
TOO FAR INLAND, MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE SW FLOW. THIS MAKES THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE AREA TO BE IN THE INTERIOR, WITH THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AREAS OF BROWARD, PALM BEACH, AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES, AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN AREAS OF COLLIER, GLADES, AND HENDRY COUNTIES.
HOWEVER, AS WITH MOST AFTERNOONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA, CAN NOT RULE
OUT ANY LOCATION ACROSS THE AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR THEIR INTENSITY, YESTERDAY LOOKED SOMEWHAT BETTER. TODAY,
THE 500MB TEMP IS -6.8C. THE 700-500MB LAPSE RATE IS RIGHT AROUND
6 C/KM. THE NCAPE IS AROUND .15 AND CAPE IS LESS THAN 2000 JOULES.
SO,. THIS ADDS UP TO MAINLY GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
THERE IS A DRY LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS THAT COLD HELP BRING A FEW
STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER,
ONLY EXPECTING DOWNDRAFTS OF 40-50 MILES PER HOUR AT THIS TIME.
THE FREEZING LEVEL IS AROUND 15000, WHICH MAKES HAIL DIFFICULT,
AND IF IT DOES FORM, IT SHOULD KEEP IT ON THE SMALL SIDE.
AFTER TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
TURN THE FLOW MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST. WITH THIS CHANGE,
MORE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT FROM THE EASTERN
INTERIOR, TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. THIS WILL
PERSIST WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFORE
MENTIONED AREA EACH AFTERNOON. IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THERE WILL
BE SOME MARITIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC. SOME
OF THESE MAY MAKE THEIR WAY ONSHORE, THE DISSIPATE OVER THE
ATLANTIC METRO AREAS. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
KEEP THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA, AS WELL AS,
KEEP MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THE THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION...
A LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHWEST TO THE GULF WATERS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY APPROACH KAPF AND KPBI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING...ALTHOUGH LEFT ANY VICINITY MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR
NOW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...DELAYED THE ONSET OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST COAST SITES UNTIL 20Z AS MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES DEPICT CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
MARINE...
WITH HURRICANE ARTHUR MOVING AWAY, MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. THERE WILL BE A 1 FOOT SWELL THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. THERE ALSO MAY BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS, MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
137 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
LOOKS LIKE A GREAT /AND DRY/ DAY FOR OUTDOOR CELEBRATIONS ACROSS
UPPER MI.
HAVE PULLED SPRINKLES FROM THE FORECAST WHERE THEY WERE MENTIONED
OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVELS ARE
QUITE DRY AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE
DRYNESS. ADDITIONALLY...NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING QPF IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA. THE RAP EVEN CORRECTLY SHOWS THE WEAK SHOWER
OR TWO CURRENTLY N OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...WHICH WERE NOT PRESENT AT
MODEL INITIALIZATION...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA...BUT DISSIPATES THOSE SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE CLOSER
TO THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE CWA. VIRGA SEEMS A MORE LIKELY OUTCOME
THAN SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI /AFTER 03Z SAT/...THE
UPSTREAM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WCENTRAL MN HAS NOT
PANNED OUT QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS HIGH-RES MODEL RUNS
INDICATED. THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP SHOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
PRODUCING 0.01-0.03 INCHES OF QPF FROM GOGEBIC COUNTY MI TO ASHLAND
COUNTY WI. THE LATEST LOCAL HIGH-RES WRF RUN KEEPS THIS AREA DRY.
HAVE CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH 03Z SAT FOR FAR WRN UPPER MI.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHICH CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES TO DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THERE ARE TWO LARGER WAVES TO NOTE
AND A MORE SUBTLE THIRD WAVE THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FIRST WAVE DROPPED THROUGH THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND PRODUCED SCATTERED/FEW MID CLOUDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL ONLY BRING A
FEW MID CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.P. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE CWA IS EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH FROM
A HIGH CENTERED IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THOSE CONDITIONS HAVE
PRODUCED GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HAS ALLOWED 3AM TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE 40S...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES AT THE NORMAL COLD
SPOTS (DOE LAKE...SPINCICH LATE) IN THE UPPER 30S.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...WHICH LOOKS MORE POTENT THE CURRENT WAVE ON WV
IMAGERY AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...IS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JUST STARTING TO
COME INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS ARE INSISTENT ON THIS WAVE
QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA BY 15Z. THOSE TWO WAVES WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH
EAST AND OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...AS IT MERGES WITH
HURRICANE ARTHUR TONIGHT. BACK TO THIS AREA...THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY...BUT STILL KEEP
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A QUICK WARM-UP AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
LIKE YESTERDAY...THE DEEP MIXING INLAND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CU
DEVELOPMENT AROUND 6-8KFT SO HAVE FOLLOWED 750MB MOISTURE FROM THE
MODELS FOR SKY COVER TODAY. THEREFORE...HAVE CU DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE DAY (GENERALLY 19-20Z AND LATER) AND HAVE THE INTERIOR WEST AND
ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL BECOMING PARTLY TO NEARLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL MOISTURE ON THAT LEVEL IS GENERALLY A
LITTLE DRIER THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH SEEMS TO BE WHY MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING NO PRECIP. THE ONLY MODEL PRODUCING PRECIP
IS THE 00Z NAM...AND EVEN THAT HAS TRIMMED BACK THE QPF FROM WHAT
THE 07/03 12Z/18Z RUNS WERE SHOWING (NOW JUST SHOWING A LITTLE SPECK
OF 0.01IN QPF OVER MARQUETTE COUNTY). THE AREA THAT IS SHOWS
PRECIP MATCHES UP WITH WHERE THE LAKE SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS LIKELY MORE
DUE TO REMAINING IN AN AREA THAT ISN/T EXPERIENCING THE LAKE
STABILITY. A FEW OF THE HIRES MODELS THAT DON/T SPIT OUT QPF DO
INDICATE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON THE MODEL SIMULATED COMP
REFLECTIVITY. THINK THAT THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IS CONTRIBUTING TO
THIS (INVERTED-V LOOK TO THE SOUNDINGS) AND LIMITING PRECIP
ACCUMULATION. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A REALLY THIN SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON (CURRENTLY PRODUCING THE HIGH CLOUDS
NEAR AND EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG)...WHICH COULD AID IN THE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. SINCE THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PERFORMED VERY WELL
YESTERDAY...WOULD HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT THEIR IDEA OF NO PRECIP
TODAY IS REASONABLE. THUS...WILL TRIM BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCES TO
JUST SOME SPRINKLES FOR GENERALLY THE MARQUETTE COUNTY AREA.
SINCE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...A LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN SASKATCHEWAN TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST AND LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHING SOUTH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THINK THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH HELP
FROM A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND MOVE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE AREA
TONIGHT. STORM MOTIONS ARE GENERALLY IN A EASTERLY DIRECTION
AND SIMILAR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK OF THE WAA...SO THINK THAT
THE MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE DOING A DECENT JOB IN TRACKING IT TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUALLY INCREASING SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS OVER THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS TO BE A REALLY NICE EVENING FOR FIREWORKS WITH
TEMPERATURES AT SUNSET IN THE 60S. ONE LAST ITEM TO NOTE. WILL NEED
TO WATCH THE AREA IN EASTERN SD AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. NCEP
WRF RUNS THE AREA WHERE THERE ARE SOME BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS AND
ISOLATE SHOWERS EXPANDING THIS MORNING AND THEN LIFTING TOWARDS THE
FAR WESTERN CWA TOWARDS SUNSET. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOSE TRENDS
THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 547 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
A SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH A WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGHS BRIEFLY GO BACK ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO
TROUGHING ALOFT AND A COOLER AIRMASS FOR EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. MODELS DO HINT THAT BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...MID
JULY...RIDGING ALOFT AND A PERIOD OF WARMER TEMPERATURES
MAY SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AGAIN
THIS WARMUP DOES NOT LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MORE THAN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
SATURDAY...ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO. MODELS SHOW CONVECTION FIRING
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE FRI EVENING OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO NW
ONTARIO ALONG 1000-850 MB THETA-E AXIS...AREA OF 1000+ J/KG ELEVATED
MUCAPE AND AT NOSE OF 35 KT 8H JET MAX. MODELS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE REMNANTS OF THESE STORMS COULD REACH INTO WRN/NCNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NW UPPER MI LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR
THE MOST PART HOWEVER...EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL MAINTAIN A
DIMINISHING TREND TO POPS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE
EVENTUALLY MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND TAKES BEST H85-H7
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH IT. UNDER PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SW
WINDS TO 20-25 KTS...EXPECT TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER 80S
AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN WHERE IT SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WAA ESPECIALLY FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE FROM SCSNTRL CANADA WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA AS COLD FRONT/INSTABILITY AXIS WORKS
EAST TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES. BASED ON WHERE BEST INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED NEAR THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IT LOOKS LIKE STORMS
WOULD INITIATE OVER NRN MN OR NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS AND DIFFLUENT THICKNESS PATTERN WOULD
SUGGEST STORMS SOME STORMS COULD MOVE INTO WRN UPPER MI LATE SAT
NIGHT SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS OVER THESE AREAS WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS TO THE SE AND ERN CWA. GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS.
SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA...POTENTIALLY STRONG OR SEVERE
WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS WNW FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO SEND SHORTWAVES OVER THE AREA...AND SFC COLD FRONT SAGS
SE ACROSS UPPER MI. KEY WILL BE HOW MUCH INSOLATION/HEATING AND SFC
BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED. MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR IS H85 WINDS
VEERING MORE WNW BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CUTTING DOWN ON
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. BEST SHOT OF STRONGER STORMS WOULD
PROBABLY BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY AXIS OF NEAR 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE LOCATED. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON MIXING DOWN H85 TEMPS UP
TO +18C...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. IF THERE IS ENOUGH
SUNSHINE...MAY SEE TEMPS NEAR 90 DEGREES. BEST SHOT OF SUCH WARM
TEMPS WOULD PROBABLY BE SCNTRL CWA AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN.
BEHIND SUNDAY/S COLD FROPA....TROUGHING ALOFT BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW FLOW ALOFT AND PERIODIC SHORTWAVES DROPPING
THROUGH THE FLOW PATTERN COULD TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLD TSRA AT TIMES MON INTO WED...ESPECIALLY INLAND WEST HALF.
OTHERWISE...NORTH TO NORTH WINDS AT THE SFC WILL KEEP STABLIZED LAKE
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPR 50S
TO UPR 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND READINGS IN THE 70S INLAND AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN. MODELS HINT AT RIDGING AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST BY THU WITH TEMPS LIKELY REBOUNDING CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL THREE
SITES TODAY. KIWD MAY SWITCH AROUND FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THEN SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. KCMX WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE KSAW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE AND THEN SWITCH
TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE MICHIGAN BREEZE
MOVES THROUGH. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL COME AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR KCMX...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THEM
SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SITE. FINALLY...MAY NEED LLWS AT
KIWD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THIS LOW WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO QUEBEC...BUT IT WILL DRAG A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE COOL LAKE SUPERIOR
WATER TEMPERATURES TO HELP DEVELOP A MARINE LAYER THAT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS BELOW 20KTS THROUGH SUNDAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20KTS AS A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF WARM MOIST AIR MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND EXPECTED RAINFALL...WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TITUS
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1218 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
SATELLITE AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING THE AREA UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SET UP BETWEEN A TROUGH CONTINUING TO
PUSH TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE
ROCKIES FROM HIGH PRESSURE ROUGHLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT
THE SFC...NO NOTABLE CHANGES...THE CWA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING THOSE SRLY WINDS IN PLACE.
STARTING TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WRN
EDGE OF THE CWA...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND INCREASED LIFT VIA A 30-
40ISH KT LLJ EDGES FURTHER EAST. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWING MUCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THAT WRN EDGE...BUT SHEAR IS FAIRLY LOW. EVEN
NOW MODELS STILL VARY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
KEEP THE POPS GOING ACROSS THE CWA AND SEE HOW THINGS TREND OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
STORMS.
WILL CONTINUE THE POPS INTO THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...BUT THINKING
IS THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. SOME MODELS HINT AT
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH
WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT AT THIS POINT UNLESS OTHER MODELS START
TRENDING THAT WAIT NOT BUYING INTO THAT SOLUTION...AND KEPT THE
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS DRY. BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT
NEED TO MONITOR...AND UPDATE IF IT DOES INDEED HAPPEN/AFFECT MAINLY
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA
TIGHTENS AND MIXING POTENTIAL INCREASES...SUSTAINED SPEEDS THIS
AFTERNOON OF 20-25 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG WITH GUSTS OVER
30 MPH. EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TURNS TO THE
WEST...AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG THAT SFC TROUGH AXIS...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE
PLAINS. THINK THE NAM AND SREF ARE TOO FAST WITH BRINGING THE
ACTIVITY EAST...ALREADY AFFECTING THE WRN CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE RAP/4KM WRF...SHOW THE BETTER
CHANCES COMING POST 00Z. TRIMMED BACK THE POPS A BIT FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING...LATEST RAP SHOWING EVEN AT 01Z THE
BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY IS W/NW OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY THINGS CAN
TREND DIFFERENTLY WITH UPCOMING MODEL RUNS...ANOTHER THING FOR THE
DAY SHIFT TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON...ESP WITH FOLKS WONDERING
WHETHER THEY WILL BE ABLE TO SEE THEIR FIREWORKS SHOWS. WHILE POPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS...STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE...WHICH MAY BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POPS. THAT
UNCERTAINTY EVEN CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES PUSHING EAST BUT
MODELS VARY WITH WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND BETTER CONVERGENCE
WILL END UP...WITH SOME SHOWING ACTIVITY PICKING BACK UP OVER OUR
ERN COUNTIES. PLENTY OF DETAINS YET TO IRON OUT...EVEN THIS CLOSE
TO THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THINKING AS FAR AS STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER GOES HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH...AS THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO KEEPS THAT POTENTIAL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS STILL LOOKING TO
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER STORY OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS A
PROLONGED STRETCH OF NEAR-NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL SUMMER
HEAT...MEANING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MOST DAYS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO RANGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
MID-80S AND LOW-90S...WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXCEEDING THIS
RANGE ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. FOR THOSE WHO ENJOYED THESE PAST FEW
BELOW NORMAL DAYS...THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WILL BE A RUDE
REMINDER THAT IT IS IN FACT JULY. THE INCREASING TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY AS
WELL...WITH DEWS FORECAST TO AVERAGE AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 60S
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA MOST FAVORED TO SEE
DEWPOINTS OCCASIONALLY REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED THE MORE-
OPPRESSIVE 70 DEGREE MARK. AS FOR BOTH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES...SUNDAY IS CURRENTLY SLATED TO BE THE OVERALL-
HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITHIN THE CWA...AND MADE
RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ACTUAL TEMPS
AIMED FROM THE MID-90S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 90S-100
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST KEEPS ALL AREAS AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105+ DEGREES...THERE IS A
DECENT PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA NOW FORECAST TO OBSERVE VALUES IN THE
100-104 RANGE...SO HAVE KEPT THIS NEAR-ADVISORY HEAT INDEX
FORECAST IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).
FORTUNATELY...SUNDAY IS THE ONLY DAY OUT OF THESE 6 FORECAST TO
BREACH THE 100+ HEAT INDEX MARK...THANKS TO A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TEMPERING THE HEAT
A BIT...AND ALSO ALLOWING SURFACE BREEZES TO PREVAIL FROM MORE OF
AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK INSTEAD OF
THE PREVALENT SOUTHERLY DIRECTION EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
SWITCHING GEARS TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...FOR BETTER OR
WORSE THESE 6 DAYS SIGNAL A GENERAL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
PATTERN OF 1-2 WEEKS AGO...MEANING THAT THERE ARE A MULTITUDE OF
FAIRLY LOW 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE MAJORITY OF 12-HOUR
PERIODS...BUT VERY FEW OF THESE PERIODS WILL PROBABLY END UP
HAVING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SO BE SURE TO KEEP THESE MYRIAD CHANCES
ESPECIALLY BEYOND THE FIRST FEW DAYS IN PERSPECTIVE. THAT BEING
SAID...THE ONLY PERIOD THAT CURRENTLY FEATURES MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER 30-40 POPS IS MONDAY NIGHT...SO IF
TRENDS HOLD THIS MAY END UP BEING THE OVERALL-BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES...OBVIOUSLY GIVEN THE RETURN OF TYPICAL SUMMER
HEAT/HUMIDITY THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AROUND MOST OF
THE TIME...BUT ALSO TYPICAL OF SUMMER THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME
WILL PROBABLY HAVE NO BETTER THAN MODEST DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR
AND/OR CAPPING ISSUES. AS A RESULT...THERE IS FAR TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO SAY MUCH ABOUT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK BEYOND
THIS WEEKEND...BUT PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 3 OUTLOOK
THERE COULD BE AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT FOR LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND PROBABLY MORE-SO
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO NEB ZONES FROM
THE NORTH. ALSO...BACKING UP TO RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY
MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG STORMS
LINGERING IN EASTERN ZONES FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY
DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE...BUT ODDS ARE THAT ANY
LEGITIMATE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY THEN.
GETTING MORE INTO METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING THINGS IN
24-HOUR BLOCKS...
SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS REMAINS
THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON CENTRAL PLAINS WEATHER...BUT THE DAYTIME
HOURS START OUT WITH THE LINGERING DEPARTURE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...JUST CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME STORMS LINGERING OVER EASTERN ZONES INTO THE MID-MORNING
HOURS...AND THUS LARGELY MAINTAINED LOW POPS SATURDAY MORNING FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MID-UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF A BIT
AND TURNS THE FLOW MORE NORTHERLY ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH A
LACK OF DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. AS A RESULT...DESPITE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE CONSENSUS OF MOST MODELS AND KEEP SATURDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT
VOID OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POPS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH COULD AT
LEAST SEE SOME ACTIVITY COME VERY CLOSE TO AFFECTING THE CWA. HIGH
TEMPS AIMED FROM LOW 90S NORTHEAST TO MID-UPPER 90S
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE ENHANCED HEAT ASPECT AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE POSSIBLE STRONG-SEVERE STORM RISK LATE IN THE DAY
AND LIKELY MORE SO INTO THE EVENING HAS ALREADY BEEN COVERED
ABOVE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED A BIT BY THE
PASSAGE OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
GENERALLY ALONG THE CANADA BORDER. THIS IN TURN ALLOWS A WEAK BUT
DECENTLY-DEFINED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...POSSIBLY PROMOTING VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT
PRIMARILY WITHIN THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY HERE THOUGH.
MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...A BIT STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE UPPER JET CORE SINKS FARTHER
SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAINTAINED TOKEN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
DAY BUT AS ALREADY MENTIONED THE NIGHT PERIOD FEATURES THE
OVERALL-HIGHEST POPS OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD IN THE 30-40 RANGE AS
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE FAIRLY INSISTENT IN SPARKING POTENTIALLY
VIGOROUS AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPS TEMPER A BIT
FROM SUNDAY...GENERALLY AIMED UPPER 80S NORTH-MID 90S SOUTH.
TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THESE 24 HOURS REMAIN BLANKETED
WITH MAINLY TOKEN 20 POPS AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS ALONG THE
POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT ACTIVE INTERFACE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
DIRECTED ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS RIDGE AND
A VIGOROUS SOUTHEAST CANADA TROUGH. HIGH TEMPS MID 80S NORTH-LOW
90S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOST CONVECTION IN THE REGION COULD
FOCUS SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF THE CWA...BLANKET COVERAGE OF 20 POPS
CONTINUES DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. HIGH TEMPS MID 80S NORTH-LOW 90S
SOUTH.
THURSDAY DAYTIME...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT POPS CONTINUE AREA-WIDE FOR
NOW...THERE ARE VERY EARLY INDICATIONS THAT FLOW ALOFT MAY TURN
MORE ZONAL AND ALLOW WARMER ALOFT TO PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST...POTENTIALLY USHERING IN AT LEAST A BRIEF STRETCH THAT MAY
NOT EVEN BE WORTHY OF 20 POPS IN LATER FORECASTS. HIGH TEMPS VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED MID 80S NORTH-LOW 90S SOUTH...VERY SIMILAR TO
TUES-WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LATER THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL LET UP A LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
336 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. FOR TONIGHT THE
WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTATIONS ARE LOW FOR CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. HRRR MESO MODEL TRIES
TO GET A LINE OF CONVECTION GOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING BUT DIMINISHES THE CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. LOOKS
AS THOUGH MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL FOCUS MORE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY THEN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER WARM UP BY
NEXT WEEKS END.
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY LEADS TO
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY BY DAYS END INTO THE EVENING. COMPARED TO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE SITUATION LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS
SATURDAY EVENING/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING 40-50KTS OF
0-6KM SHEAR ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME CIN WILL BE
PRESENT...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
JET STREAK AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY INHIBITION. SPC
EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER MORE SOUTH TO
INCLUDE MORE OF WEST AND CENTRAL ND TO ACCOMMODATE THOSE AREAS NEAR
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL IMPULSES AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER JET.
SURFACE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE
OFF TO MY NORTHEAST MAY TRIGGER ANOTHER STORM ON SUNDAY AROUND THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE LOOKS DRY SUNDAY DAYTIME WITH A
BREEZY DRYING-OUT NORTHWEST WIND. ANOTHER EMBEDDED
WAVE...TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A MORE ROBUST WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA
ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY FOR THIS LATER
FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND 80S...BUT ALMOST DAILY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. BOTH MODELS INDICATE
A RETURN OF MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND AND CONTINUED INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT BEYOND THE EXTEND PERIOD...NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
AT 320 PM CDT...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WARM MOIST FLOW OVER THIS WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MORE DIRECTLY IMPACT KJMS THROUGH
00Z. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
CREATED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORAGE AT BOTH ALAMEDA DAM AND
LAKE DARLING. RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM INCREASED TO 1060 CFS ON
WEDNESDAY. RELEASES FROM LAKE DARLING DAM WILL REMAIN AROUND 2000
CFS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ON THE SOURIS
RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
315 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALSO CONCERNED WITH SEVERE CHANCES SATURDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAP HAVING TROUBLE WITH TIMING
AND LOCATION OF CURRENT CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE MORE REALISTIC
HRRR...SO WILL USE THE LATTER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS TRANSITIONING TO A GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SATURDAY
AND BEYOND.
20 UTC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF NON-SEVERE CONVECTION.
THE FIRST IS A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AND
THE SECOND IS MUCH SMALLER ALONG THE EASTERN ND/SD BORDER. THIS
SECOND AREA OF STORMS HAS THE GREATER POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
GIVEN A WEAKENING CAP IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FORCING WITH SHORT-WAVE ALOFT SEEMS TO
BE FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH AND MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORM
INTENSIFICATION. OVERALL...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING EAST OF THE RIVER
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SATURDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN AFTERNOON ENVIRONMENT THAT IS
HIGHLY UNSTABLE (SFC CAPE RISING TO 4000 J/KG)...BUT CAPPED BY
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING PROVIDING THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
MAIN QUESTION IS IF SFC CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED
AND/OR MID-LEVELS WILL COOL ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. WILL
FOLLOW SPC THINKING IN THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD BEGIN ACROSS
CENTRAL ND AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITION INTO SOME KIND OF MCS AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN LATE SATURDAY/
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS IDEA IS COVERED WELL IN SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S) WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT INDICATING A WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...PLACING THIS REGION IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE FLATTENS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ARE HARD TO
TIME...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE A SITUATION WHERE MOST DAYS WILL HAVE
ISOLD-SCATTERED T-STORMS FOR A SHORT DURATION. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES...POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE TRICKY PART IS TIMING AND COVERAGE...AND USED THE
LATEST HI-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST TO COME UP WITH THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CALMER WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
HALLOCK TO CAVALIER AND THEN SOUTHWEST TOWARDS COOPERSTOWN. HAVE
RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL ACROSS NORTHEAST ND
WITH THE PRIMARY CLUSTER. INTERESTINGLY...THESE STORMS ARE IN AN
AREA WITH LITTLE SFC OR MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY AND ONLY 250 TO
750 J/KG OF MUCAPE. SOUTHERLY 850 HPA WINDS UP TO 35 KTS AND
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE ALOFT PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING IN THE
GRIDS...BUT IT APPEARS AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN) WITH FORCING OUT RUNNING THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY. SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST WITH
POCKETS OF ENERGY ALOFT RIDING THE RIDGE. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
GREATER IN THESE AREAS AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
INTERESTING SET-UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. QUICK MOVING
SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND WILL MOVE
THROUGH BROAD 500 HPA RIDGE AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...RAP IS
SHOWING AN AREA OF 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR FROM 40 TO 45 KTS.
BOUNDARY LAYER IS INITIALLY WELL CAPPED THROUGH 18-19 UTC...
ERODING THEREAFTER WITH UPWARDS OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. FURTHER EAST...INSTABILITY IS LESS
BUT STILL AROUND 500 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...BUT THERE EXIST
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0 TO 3 KM VGP VALUES RISE QUICKLY TO
BETWEEN 0.3 AND 0.5 ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST MN. GIVEN
ALL THESE FACTORS...SPC DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK AREA LOOKS GOOD. MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE IF PRIMARY FORCING ALOFT MOVES THROUGH BEFORE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED AFTER THE CAP ERODES.
WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS AND UPDATE POPS TO REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS FROM THE RAP/HRRR...BOTH SHOWING INCREASING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE) FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ND
INTO NORTHWEST MN. STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE VALLEY BY LATE
EVENING. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE WARM AND BREEZY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND A STIFF SOUTHERLY
WIND WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CELLS CONTINUE TO FIRE FROM NERN SD INTO
FAR SERN ND AND THE EDGE OF WCNTRL MN. STILL EXPECT THESE CELLS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING...
REACHING INTO THE FARGO-MOORHEAD AREA THROUGH THE FORENOON.
ELSE... NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST PACKAGE ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING ACROSS NORTHEAST SD THIS EARLY
MORNING ALONG AN ELEVATED BAND OF INSTABILITY...WITH A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE SHOWING. RUC AND HRRR HAVE THIS BAND PERSISTING THRU
MID MORNING AS IT EXPANDS ACROSS SERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
THEN THIS BAND CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO NERN ND AND NORTHWEST
MN BY MIDDAY...WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SHEAR LEAD TO FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVELS CAPE /+500 J/KG/ AND LOW
LEVEL /0 TO 2 KM LAYER/ VGP EXCEEDING 0.2 UNITS. SPC HAS
IDENTIFIED THIS AREA AS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH A 5
PERCENT RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO. WOULD EXPECT THIS THREAT TO BE
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER FROM MID AFTERNOON ON...
SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST MN FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.
A CHASER SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY ON SATURDAY.. WITH MOTTLED CLOUD COVER
AND SOMETHING OF A STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH THE
DAY. AN APPROACHING MID LVL SHORTWV TROF LOOKS TO DISRUPT THAT CAP
STARTING INTO NORTHWEST ND BY LATE AFTERNOON... AND PROGRESSING
INTO NORTHEAST ND LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN...A SIGNAL AMONG
MOST MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
SATURDAY NIGHT ROUNDING THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE WOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION...WITH SOME SORT OF MCS SATURDAY
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE MUCH STRONGER...WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVING INTO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN REGION EARLY ON
SUNDAY.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE WEEK...NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
MON-TUE TIME FRAME...WITH AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWERS/STORMS.
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...A GRADUAL FLATTENING OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED.
PRECIP CHANCES MAY DECREASE FOR MID-WEEK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER FORCING...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WARMING BACK UP BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE TRICKY PART IS TIMING AND COVERAGE...AND USED THE
LATEST HI-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST TO COME UP WITH THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CALMER WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
244 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF OUR NORTH TEXAS
COUNTIES AND THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN HIGH-RES MODELS OF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING THERE. RAP SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD QPF
SIGNALS... AND ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION... IT
APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN PHILOSOPHY FOR
THE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK THEN SOME LOW POPS NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE
FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 91 71 94 / 10 10 10 10
HOBART OK 68 93 70 97 / 10 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 93 72 96 / 20 10 10 10
GAGE OK 68 93 69 97 / 10 10 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 71 91 73 97 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 70 93 71 95 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
335 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS TO PERSIST ANOTHER DAY
ACROSS THE FA BUT MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHICH IS ENOUGH TO PUMP OUT 1500-2000 J/KG OF
SURFACE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MINIMAL TO NO CAPPING. A NORTH-
SOUTH AXIS OF WEAKLY HIGHER THETA-E/MIXING RATIO VALUES WAS
OBSERVED IN RAP FORECAST FIELDS BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME
CONVECTION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT AND THERE IS STILL LITTLE TO NO FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. BASES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS IN THE LOWER 90S. RISING
HEIGHTS...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AND LESS MOISTURE WILL
ACT TO QUELL ANY LOW LEVEL EFFECTS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
A REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR SATURDAY
MORNING BUT SOME STRATUS MAY TRY TO EDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY
GIVING LESS CHANCES OF MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION REACHING THE FA.
HOWEVER A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER TOMORROW EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...
OTHER THAN THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF SOME STORMS TOMORROW EVENING...
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. BEST POPS
APPEAR TO STAY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SO KEPT BARELY SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. PAST THAT...RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED WEST TO NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WHICH KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHTS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT THROUGH THE FORECAST
WHICH MEANS TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DECENT MOISTURE LEVELS
REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 700
HPA WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP TOO
MUCH.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 89 64 92 67 / 10 10 20 0 10
TULIA 64 89 65 93 68 / 10 10 10 0 10
PLAINVIEW 66 89 66 92 68 / 10 0 10 0 0
LEVELLAND 67 91 67 92 69 / 10 0 10 0 0
LUBBOCK 68 91 67 93 69 / 10 0 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 66 92 67 92 69 / 0 0 10 0 0
BROWNFIELD 67 92 67 92 70 / 10 0 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 69 93 71 96 73 / 20 10 10 0 10
SPUR 69 92 68 95 70 / 20 0 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 71 93 71 97 73 / 20 0 10 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01/14