Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/03/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING MAINLY MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS GREATLY INCREASING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...
EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS SE AZ. 01/19Z RUC HRRR DEPICTED THE ONGOING
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY ABOUT 02/00Z. HOWEVER...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WERE PROGGED TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS ERN COCHISE COUNTY INTO THIS EVENING. THE RUC HRRR CONTINUED
TO DEPICT WEAK PRECIP ECHOES TO CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THAT DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS GRAHAM/GREENLEE COUNTIES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY THEN LINGER LATE
TONIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
VARIOUS 01/12Z NWP MODELS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS IN DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE AZ WED...AND
ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT INTO THUR. BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS...HAVE
INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT DURING THE WED AFTERNOON-THUR PERIOD. HAVE
OPTED FOR CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS BY WED EVENING FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE WED INTO THUR...MAINLY
EAST OF TUCSON.
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THUR IN RESPONSE
TO THE ANTICIPATED MOISTURE SURGE WED NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
SCENARIO OF AREAS OF BLOWING DUST THUR AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM TUCSON
WWD/NWWD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI SHOULD BE HIGHER VERSUS THUR...THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE HIGHER THUR IN RESPONSE TO A SOMEWHAT
DRIER NEAR-SURFACE REGIME.
THEREAFTER...01/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH MAINTAINING AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE WRN CONUS INTO THE
SRN CONUS PLAINS SAT-TUE. THE COMBINATION OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
ELY WAVES AS DEPICTED VIA THE GFS/ECMWF WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FAVORED LOCALES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS ERN SECTIONS.
HIGH TEMPS WED SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME MINOR COOLING WILL THEN OCCUR THUR FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS FRI-TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED -TSRA THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA WILL THEN OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FROM KTUS EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 KTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST TSRA. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THICKER CLOUDS MOSTLY AT 8-15K FT AGL
TO BE EAST OF KTUS. SURFACE WINDS THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE SW-NW 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS. THE
STRONGEST WIND WILL BE IN THE SAFFORD VALLEY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GRAHAM...GREENLEE...AND
COCHISE COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON. THEREAFTER...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
917 AM PDT Tue Jul 1 2014
.Synopsis...
Hot temperatures today, though a little cooler than Monday, with a cooling
trend to near normal levels after mid-week. Dry weather expected
except a slight chance of thunderstorms over the northern
mountains and in the Sierra today and Wednesday.
&&
.Discussion...
The weak upper low off the coast is moving into northern
California and will track into Oregon by tonight. The upper ridge
which has brought heat to the area is shifting east. Temperatures
in Delta have already cooled quite a bit due to marine flow, with
current temperatures 8-14 degrees lower. Temperatures in the
northern Valley have cooled some as well, though not as much, and
triple digit highs are still expected there this afternoon. The
mountains are actually seeing some higher temperatures, though
this will change starting later this afternoon as the cooler
airmass moves through. The marine layer continues to deepen and
expect a relatively strong Delta breeze by this evening.
Instability with the low and daytime heating will touch off a few
isolated thunderstorms in the mountains. HRRR and WRF mesoscale
models show that the trend of convection with very limited
precipitation continues, with most activity north and west of our
forecast area in the Coastal Mountains and east of the Sierra
crest. The best potential for dry lightning activity continues to
be over the northern Coastal Mountains and a red flag warming is
in effect there through the early evening.
Only change to forecast is to expand are of isolated thunderstorms
a little westward around the Lassen Park/western Plumas County
area.
A few lingering showers/thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over
the Coastal Mountains. Activity over the Sierra should be over,
with storms shifting well to the east.
Strong east-west oriented ridge forecast to develop early next
week for a return to relatively hot weather. EK
&&
.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)
Dry and stable SW flow aloft forecast to prevail over interior
Norcal during the first part of the EFP as the extended modeling
maintains a seasonably deep low pressure center just off the B.C.
coast and its associated upper trof along the west coast. Max
temps forecast to be near normal as onshore flow suppresses the
heat in the Delta influenced areas.
For the latter half of the EFP differences in the modeling results
in low confidence in the daily details. While the GFS maintains
the persistent west coast trof pattern...the ECMWF and GEM are
maintaining strong ridging over Norcal from twin anticyclones...
one over the Ern Pac near 140W and and the other over the Great
Basin. We used the "all blend" model approach for temps during the
latter half of the EFP to account for the model disparity. Large
scale subsidence will offset onshore flow and chances of deep
convection. JHM
&&
.Aviation...
VFR conditions for Valley TAF sites the next 24 hours. Patchy MVFR/IFR
stratus will linger along the western Delta through about 18z.
Upper level disturbance moving through the area may bring isolated
to scattered thunderstorms over the mountains this afternoon and
evening. Light winds will become south to west up to 15 kt this
afternoon and evening across the Valley. Near the Delta, SW wind
gusts up to 30 kt will continue.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
red flag warning from 2 pm this afternoon to 10 pm pdt this
evening mountains southwestern shasta county to northern lake
county.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
722 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT FOR THE REGION. A COLD FRONT AND A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE AGAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH LESS HUMID AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 632 PM EDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED
FOR THE REST OF AREA AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN CANCELED. THE FCST AREA IS IN BRIEF
SUBSIDENCE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH...BUT ANOTHER LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORMING DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. WE WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMN REF SHOWS A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT STILL WELL
TO THE WEST OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA. THIS
LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AS IT MOVES INTO THE ALY FCST AREA
BTWN 00Z-02Z...AS THE SFC BASED INSTABILITY HAS WANED QUITE A BIT
BASED ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA WITH 500-1000 J/KG.
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SFC DEWPTS STILL IN THE 60S
AND SPOTTY LOWER 70S WITH ONLY WEAK COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE
MTNS AND NRN TIER...AND MID 60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED AND ROUND 2 OF
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. CLOUDS MAY BECOME A GREATER ISSUE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED AGAIN WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITH POCKETS
GREATER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BASED ON
THE NAM/GFS. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40
KTS...WITH MULTICELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE AGAIN. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE A LIFTING MECHANISM...THOUGH ANOTHER PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...AND MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALSO FOCUS
THE CONVECTION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS
STILL IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S TO
L70S. FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO BE A THREAT AGAIN...AND ADDITIONAL
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME.
SOME OF THESE INGREDIENTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT
/PRE/ WELL IN ADVANCE OF ARTHUR...BUT PERHAPS TODAY WAS A PRE
TOO. WE BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A PRE IS FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR
AREA BASED ON THE CSTAR RESEARCH IN NJ AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...A STRIPE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB...AND OVER PART OF WRN NEW ENGLAND BASED
THE CANADIAN...RFC AND NAM GUIDANCE. TRAINING LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOO...SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING
AGAIN. IT IS INTERESTING BEST JET DYNAMICS ARE DISPLACED FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST OVER WRN-NRN NY WITH A JET STREAK OF 75-100 KTS.
SOME OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT REAR QUAD. POPS WERE
KEPT IN THE HIGH LIKELY RANGE TOMORROW...AND THE HEAVY RAIN WAS
EMPHASIZED IN THE GRIDS. WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE HWO FOR TOMORROW. WILL A
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOT AS WARM AS
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE HILLS
AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS.
TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT TOWARD THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BY DAYBREAK...THE RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS LINGERING
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. ARTHUR LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST OF AREA FOR LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. COLD
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST FROM NW TO SE WITH H850 TEMPS OF
+8C TO +11C FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST...AND +11C TO +14C TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE M50S TO L60S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
INDEPENDENCE DAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN EXTREME OF THE FCST
AREA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. THIS WILL HELP
STEER ARTHUR FURTHER EAST OF THE EAST COAST. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S WITH A BRISK W/NW WIND IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION NW OF
ARTHUR. THE GFS HAS THE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING WITH
H850 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO +8C TO +11C OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
INDEPENDENCE DAY/FRI NIGHT...BEAUTIFUL...LOW HUMIDITY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR ANY FESTIVITIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND MIDWEST WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER WX. LOWS WILL
MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME U40S OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN
DACKS.
FOR ALL THE OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INTERNET SITE
(WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV).
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A QUICK EXTENDED FORECAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE WPC GUIDANCE
WAS FOLLOWED VERY CLOSELY EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR CHANGES NOTED BELOW.
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IS EXPECTED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +13C RANGE ON SATURDAY WITH W/NW
WINDS AND DEWPTS IN THE U40S TO M50S. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WITH A COOL
EVENING...AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
SUNDAY SHOULD STILL FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE...AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE FOR THE CLOSING OF THE 4TH OF JULY
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH U70S
TO L80S OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA...WITH LOWER TO M70S OVER THE
MTNS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINS TO RETURN TO
THE FCST AREA WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AND DEWPOINTS RISING
BACK INTO THE 60S. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS S-CNTRL
ONTARIO INTO SW QUEBEC. A WARM FRONT MAY GRAZE THE NW ZONES WITH A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY MORNING. A SFC TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK HEATING.
LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID AND POSSIBLY
U80S IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS...AND WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH
WILL BE IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE IS VARIABLE...AND WE FOLLOWED WPC WITH THE FROPA LIKELY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE DID NOT GO WITH
LIKELY POPS YET ON TUE...AND WENT WITH CHC VALUES INSTEAD. SOME
INDICATIONS OF INCREASED AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH THE GFS...AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SO A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED FOR TUE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS LATE WED.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED...BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING
AROUND KPSF...THAT SHOULD BREAK UP BY 02Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING...BUT FOG SHOULD FORM AT
ALL TAF SITES DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKY AND WET GROUND.
TIMING FORMATION OF THE FOG IS IN QUESTION...SO INDICATING AFTER
06Z...BUT WILL AMEND OF IT BEGINS SOONER. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY
12Z...AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT TIMING OF THE
DEVELOPMENT IS IN QUESTION...SO JUST VCSH INDICATED UNTIL MORE
PRECISE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EACH TAF SITE CAN
BE DETERMINED.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH THIS EVENING TRENDING TOWARD CALM. WINDS
WILL PIKC BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH TOMORROW AT 6-10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THE
SHOWERS WILL END EARLY FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THEN ONLY
LOWER TO 55 TO 75 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT...AND
THEN BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST BY
INDEPENDENCE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT BASIN
AVERAGES OF A QUARTER INCH OR MORE ARE LIKELY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAYBE NEEDED TOMORROW IF TRAINING
CONVECTION MATERIALIZES AGAIN.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION TOMORROW...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT /PRE/ WELL NORTH TO
NORTHEAST OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR COULD BRING A BAND OF STEADY TO
HEAVY RAINFALL /WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS/ ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IF THIS BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
OCCURS...THEN AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR AN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR TOMORROW.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS COULD EXCEED AN INCH ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE.
AT THE VERY LEAST...SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW TO ACTION STAGES. NO
RIVER POINTS ARE FORECAST TO FLOOD AT THIS TIME...URBAN FLOODING
AND SMALL STREAM AND CREEKS FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IF HIGHER
AMOUNTS OCCUR.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOWS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
845 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED SUMMER
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW RIDGES
WELL NORTH INTO CANADA OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BEFORE DIVING
BACK SOUTHWARD INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THEN REBOUNDS AGAIN OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS OF COURSE TROPICAL STORM
ARTHUR SPINNING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COASTLINE. ARTHUR REMAINS A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR ON THURSDAY. THE GOOD NEWS FOR OUR REGION IS
THAT THE UPPER TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
ARTHUR ON A NORTHERLY PATH INTO THURSDAY AND AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE LOCAL BENEFIT OF THIS MOVEMENT WILL BE BAD NEWS FOR
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE AS CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON
THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A COMPLEX PRESSURE PATTERN IN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE BETWEEN THE 990MB CENTER OF TS ARTHUR EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE...AND THE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED OVER THE
FL STRAITS/CUBA. AS ARTHUR MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THURSDAY...THIS
RIDGE WILL REBOUND NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT...BUT REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. OUR POSITION ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL PROVIDE A STEADY SW FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVEL.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT THIS EVENING FROM POLK COUNTY
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NATURE COAST...BUT ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO
SHOW A WEAKENING TREND...AT LEAST OVER THE LAND MASS. SOME FAIRLY
STRONG STORMS ARE STILL ONGOING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTH
OF TAMPA BAY. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME ACTIVITY FORMING NEAR THE
MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW.
THESE MORE WIDELY SCT CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE LIKELY TO PERIODICALLY
FORM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND PUSH TOWARD SHORE. INHERITED FORECAST
KEPT A 20% POP IN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND DO NOT
SEE MUCH REASON TO CHALLENGE THIS PHILOSOPHY. SOME OF THE LOCAL
HIRES GUIDANCE ARE HINTING AT ADDITIONAL LATER NIGHT DEVELOPMENT
DOWN TOWARD THE COAST OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. WILL LET THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT EVALUATE THIS THREAT AND BUMP UP RAIN CHANCES.
ON THURSDAY...A WARM AND HUMID SUMMER DAY IS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN IS NOT ONE THAT USUALLY RESULTS IN TOO MANY STRONG STORMS AS
THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ALIGNS ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...WE CAN EXPECT A WIDE SCATTERING OF FAST MOVING LOWER
TOPPED CONVECTION. UNLESS THE SHOWERS ALIGN LOCALLY IN A CONVECTIVE
BAND...NO ONE LOCATION SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT DURATION OF RAIN FOR
THURSDAY. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT!
&&
.AVIATION...
TIL 04/00Z...VFR WITH VCNTY TSRA THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH LAL COULD SEE
MVFR IN A TSRA. VFR PREVAILS OVERNIGHT INTO THU WITH MORNING SHRA
AND AFTERNOON TSRA. WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NW TO W FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING AS
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FL EAST COAST.
WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE OVER THE WATERS WITH SEAS 3
FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTM
ACTIVITY OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 81 90 80 90 / 20 30 20 40
FMY 80 88 78 93 / 20 30 10 30
GIF 76 89 78 92 / 40 40 20 40
SRQ 82 86 80 91 / 30 30 10 30
BKV 73 88 76 92 / 40 30 20 40
SPG 82 87 81 90 / 30 30 20 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
934 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR...LOCATED WELL OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
WILL MOVE NORTH AND TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE GEORGIA COAST BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE. ARTHUR
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE
OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORY ON ARTHUR ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID-EVENING RECON DATA SUGGEST ARTHUR IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH. RADAR IMAGERY FROM KJAX SHOWS AN EYE FEATURE...BUT
CONVECTION IS STILL FIGHTING THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR ON THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLANKS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. OUTER RAIN
BANDS SPIRALING AROUND ARTHUR ARE ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS AND WILL APPROACH THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...SUSPECT THE BANDS
WILL NOT MAKE MUCH INLAND PROGRESS. ADJUSTED POPS TO 20/30 PERCENT
FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH POPS INCREASING ALONG THE
LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST CLOSER TO SUNRISE.
WE ARE CAREFULLY WATCHING SATELLITE...RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS THIS
EVENING. A GOOD NUMBER OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUPPORT A
SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...THE IMPACTS...
ESPECIALLY TO CHARLESTON COUNTY...WILL BE MORE. RIGHT NOW...NO
MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WIND FORECAST EXPECT TO
INCREASE SPEEDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS
AND ALONG THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON COUNTY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE LATEST RUC13 AND H3R TRACKS ARE ESPECIALLY
TROUBLING...BUT ITS TOO SOON TO SAY WHETHER THESE WILL VERIFY OR
NOT. ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING ONCE THE 11
PM ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BY NHC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO BE MOVING NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE SC COAST AND
LIKELY STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE AS IT DOES SO SINCE THE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS SEEM FAVORABLE FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR ON ITS WEST SIDE. AS TYPICAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES
MOVING NORTH IN THIS REGION...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...POSSIBLY WRAPPING AROUND TO THE NORTHERN SIDE.
THUS...LITTLE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST SC/GA OTHER THAN
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS MOSTLY ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 40 MPH...MAINLY IN RAIN BANDS. THE BIGGEST
IMPACTS WILL ACTUALLY BE IN THE SURF ZONE WHERE RIP CURRENTS AND
HIGH SURF WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
IMPROVE THURSDAY NIGHT AS ARTHUR MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES COULD GET INTO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MORE SUN AND SOME LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE
FLOW ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE FOR HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES
SO THOSE WHO HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER BEHIND
THE DEPARTING TROPICAL CYCLONE FRIDAY BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
DRIER AND THUS THERE SHOULD ONLY BE A SLIGHT RISK OF A SHOWER OR
STORM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWER HOWEVER AND THUS HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 DEGREES.
SHOULD BE EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE SATURDAY AS A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND ARTHUR.
HOWEVER...THE ENHANCED EAST/NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW COULD ALSO
BRING IN A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
RETURN FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE TROUGH IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH INTO TUESDAY...INDICATING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD NORTH OVER MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 90S
INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TYPICALLY RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCHS...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN
ELEVATED IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING CYCLONE. AS ARTHUR AND
THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT DRAW CLOSER LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...CHANCES FOR RAIN AND RESTRICTED CEILINGS WILL
INCREASE. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TIMING...SHOWERS MAY BEGIN
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL AREA AS EARLY AS 12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. I HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A VFR FORECAST...THOUGH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS CERTAINLY EXISTS ESPECIALLY IN THE
MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME...WITH GUSTS
INTO THE 23-27 KT RANGE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF LATE.
AT KSAV...BEING FURTHER WEST THAN KCHS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MUCH OF
THE IMPACTS FROM ARTHUR AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL. I HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINLY HAVE DIFFERENT
PREVAILING GROUPS TO REFLECT WINDS BACKING TO
EASTERLY...NORTHEASTERLY...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GUSTS WILL PICK UP EARLIER THAN AT KCHS AND HAVE BEEN
INCREASED INTO THE 25 KT RANGE BY THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE WITH THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD AND SEVERAL
HEADLINES ARE IN PLACE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACTS. BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 160 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH. THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL BEGIN GETTING INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS ACROSS THE OTHER WATERS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY. THE
ONGOING TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER WATERS INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS ARE INCREASING QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN INITIALIZED WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RAMP UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE HARBOR UNTIL
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BY LATE TONIGHT SEAS WILL BECOME 6-8 FT
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 8 TO 13 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MARINERS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THURSDAY...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO BE MOVING NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE GA AND SC
COASTS...JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WHILE INTENSIFYING INTO A
HURRICANE. DRY AIR ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN THE
STRONGEST WINDS MAINLY ON THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE STORM.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COASTAL WATERS AND OUTER GA WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY LATER
THURSDAY FROM THE SOUTH AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY. MARINERS SHOULD
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING POTENTIAL CHANGES IN
THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
INCREASE A BIT SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GET RE-ESTABLISHED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH SURF/RIP CURRENTS...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS ARTHUR PASSES BY OFFSHORE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS IMPACTING
THE COAST WILL CREATE LARGE BREAKING WAVES AROUND 5-8 FEET. THE
HIGHEST RISK OF RIP CURRENTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SC WATERS WHERE
THE SWELL ENERGY WILL BE GREATEST.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ117-119-139-
141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
SCZ048>051.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ048-049-051.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ352.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ350-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
AMZ330.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
112 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
117 PM CDT
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE ON SEVERE
WEATHER TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY. THE SPC HAS EXPANDED THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...WITH
THE FOCUS BEING ON DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70MPH AND LARGE HAIL.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEW POINTS...AND PWAT VALUES ARND 1.5 TO
1.75"...WHATEVER CONVECTION OCCURS COULD BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND AS SUCH WOULD INTRODUCE A
FLOODING CONCERN DESPITE STORMS FORWARD PROPAGATION. WHILE THE
PROBABILITY IS NOT ZERO FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...THE GREATEST FOCUS
FOR THIS WILL BE WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN IOWA. IF WINDS
CAN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST HOWEVER...THIS WOULD INTRODUCE INCREASED
HELICITY TO THE AREA.
THE FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE ACTIVITY PRESENTLY
ONGOING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA. VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS A
BOUNDARY DEPICTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA STRETCHING EAST TO JUST
SOUTH OF MOLINE THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IL TO
JUST SOUTH OF TERRE HAUTE IN. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY DEW
PTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S...WHILE TO THE NORTH DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE UPR 60S. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO BUMP BACK INTO THE LOW 70S WITH A
SOUTHERLY WIND. THE WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST/EAST EARLY
THIS AFTN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...AND WITH THE CIRRUS SHIELD
BEGINNING TO THIN OVER EASTERN IOWA EARLY THIS AFTN...THE ATMOSPHERE
SHUD ONLY FURTHER DESTABILIZE.
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS A LINE SEGMENT PUSHING INTO
EASTERN IOWA BY 20-22Z...THEN THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THIS FEATURE ARRIVES ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN ALONG WITH
TIMING. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE
AND UNIDIRECTIONAL MEAN LAYER FLOW...IT DOES SUPPORT THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION THAT ARRIVES ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN IL TO MORPH
INTO A BOWING SEGMENT AND POSSIBLY TRANSITION INTO A DERECHO TYPE
EVENT...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY LEVEL SHOULD QUICKLY LEVEL OFF LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
THE TIMING TO HAVE PUSHED THRU THE CWFA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THEN THE
DRY SLOT ARRIVES...HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO HOLD ONTO SOME LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE REMAINING...SO THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED LATER THIS EVENING
AND GO WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LEADING VORT WILL PIVOT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TUE...WITH THE DRY
SLOT STILL BEING PROGGED TO KEEP DRY CONDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THRU THE BULK OF THE DAY TUE. BY MID/LATE AFTN THE MID-LVL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH ANY SFC
DESTABILIZATION...A FEW ISO TSRA COULD DEVELOP FROM THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND COOLING IN THE MID-LVLS. WITH THE FLOW REMAINING
PROGRESSIVE...THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD BY 03Z WED AND SHUD
BRING A QUICK END TO ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWFA
WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING A TRAILING
WEAK TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WED MORNING...WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A CHC FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
WED. WITH CONSIDERABLE SOLAR SHIELDING WED...AND A THERMAL TROUGH OF
6 TO 8 DEG C OVERHEAD...TEMPS COULD STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND 70-74
FOR NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT A FEW POINTS IN
FAR NORTHERN IL THAT REMAIN IN THE UPR 60S WED AFTN.
BROAD TROUGH THEN PUSHES EAST WED NGT...WITH SFC ANTI-CYCLONIC
FEATURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO DRY THE
LOW-LEVELS OUT AND ALLOW WINDS TO TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THEN FOR
THUR THE NORTHERLY DRY FLOW WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S. A LAKE BREEZE LOOKS LIKELY AND COULD KEEP ON
ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE ADJACENT LAKE SHORE COMMUNITIES AND TEMPS IN
THE 60S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROG A RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...ALLOWING A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO BE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES THE WAVE
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX...ALTHOUGH THE MID-LVL TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST BY
SAT/SUN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHUD
ALLOW TEMPS TO SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL CONDS. ALTHOUGH AS THE
WEEKEND PROGRESSES...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN DOES TRANSITION INTO A
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW WITH HEIGHTS STEADILY INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CONUS. TEMPS FOR FRI SHUD CONTINUE TO BE SUB-SEASONAL IN THE 70S
NEAR 80...THEN BACK TO ARND 80 OR LOW 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY
NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN DOES APPEAR TO POINT TOWARDS TEMPS RETURNING
TO LOW/MID 80S. IN ADDITION TO THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW...IT DOES SUPPORT
A QUICK WEST-EAST FLOW OF WEAK WAVES. THIS COULD EASILY BRING A LOW
CHC POPS FOR THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POSSIBLE IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING.
* SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA ENDING 07Z.
* STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TODAY. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
IFR CIGS SPREADING WEST INTO ORD/MDW FROM COOLER EASTERLY FLOW
BUMPING INTO THE MOIST/HUMID AIR INLAND. AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
AND SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BUT EXPECTED
COVERAGE TOO LOW FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN
WESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS INCREASING DURING
THE MORNING WITH MID 20KT GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW FOR IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING.
* HIGH FOR SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA THROUGH 07Z.
* LOW FOR WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...HIGH FOR LATER TODAY. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...VFR CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY...VFR DRY.
FRIDAY...VFR DRY.
SATURDAY...VFR DRY.
SUNDAY...SLGT CHANCE OF TSRA.
ED F
&&
.MARINE...
303 PM CDT
PRIMARY MARINE CONCERN IS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND SOUTH HALF
THIS EVENING AS AN INTENSE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY HOLDS
TOGETHER AND BRINGS A PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY STRONG WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAVE LEFT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH
HALF UNTIL THIS EVENING. BEFORE CLOUDS MOVED OVERHEAD...VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED A BANK OF FOG COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE LAKE. SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL MAY BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THIS EVENING IN THE NEARSHORE BUT
DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST AN ADVISORY.
HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT WIND CRITERIA BEING MET ON
TUESDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING FROM LAND WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KT OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT GUSTY WINDS MAY
EXTEND A BIT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER
THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY. AN FAIRLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS WITH DIRECTIONS
NEAR THE SHORES CONTROLLED BY LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES BY DAY WILL
ENSUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEST
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032 UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1241 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 840 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
Initial tornado watch was allowed to expire, as the first wave of
storms passed over the far northern CWA. Some capping has been
keeping storms from firing further south so far this evening,
despite extreme MUCAPE values in the 5000 J/kg vicinity. However,
second line of intense storms currently extending from just west
of Rockford into far southeast Iowa, then back into northwest
Missouri. There will be some battling between the cap in our area
vs the air being worked over already in the north (outflow
boundary has made it between Peoria and Lincoln with temps around
70 north of it). However, the latest HRRR has this lined up fairly
well, and shows the line making it to about Jacksonville and
Bloomington between 10-11 pm albeit in a weakening state. Have
updated the grids to significantly beef up the PoP`s and rain
totals in the northwest this evening, and refined the southern
extent. Will send out corresponding zones shortly.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1236 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2014
Outside any thunderstorm, VFR conditions are expected this TAF
period. Scattered storms continue to push across central IL and
will affect the area through 08z with occasional MVFR cigs and
vsbys. Once the storms shift out of the area, a cold front
currently out to our west, will push thru the region by dawn
Tuesday. There is a low probability for lowering vsbys in fog just
ahead of the front as winds drop off for several hours but
confidence on that is too loo at this time to add into the
forecast. Surface winds behind the main outflow boundary will be
variable in direction up to 15 kts at times, and then more of a
south to southwest flow is expected ahead of the front. During the
day Tuesday, southwest to west winds are expected to increase to
12 to 17 kts by afternoon.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 338 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
Not many changes overall to the expected weather scenario for the
next week. Discussion will be abbreviated due to ongoing severe
weather preparedness & operations.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday: Lingering uncertainty
exists with respect to the evolution of the storm complex heading
east across Iowa. Most of forecast area remains in a Moderate Risk
for severe weather through tonight, although the main threat
should be over this evening. Current bow echo, surging east into
northwest Illinois, is expected to stay north of the forecast
area as flow backs southwest ahead of an advancing upper trof.
However, additional development remains possible, and is suggested
by many mesoscale models, along the boundary extending southwest
from the main bow in a strongly sheared and highly unstable
environment. Very heavy rain remains a threat with any storms the
impact the area tonight, with precipitable water values in excess
of 1.5 inches, though rapid storm movement should mitigate the
flooding threat to some degree.
Expect storms to taper off overnight with the loss of diurnal
instability and as the surface cold front sweeps through the area.
The bulk of the remainder of the short term period should be quiet
and cooler than normal. Northwest upper level flow will
predominate, with high pressure at the surface more often than
not. Still signs of a spoke of energy moving through the mean
upper trof around Wednesday, which may bring a chance of rainfall
to the area. However, most of the models are less bullish than
they have been.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday: Temperatures will begin to
moderate heading into the weekend as low level flow turns
southerly on the back side of the surface high. The turning flow
will also help richer moisture to return to the area. A northwest
flow wave is still expected by late in the weekend, and this will
result in our next organized risk of showers/storms.
Bak
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
916 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TONIGHT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ROCKIES TO SPREAD INTO OUR AREA AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT PERSISTENT
AREA OF WAA ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH IS SEEMINGLY ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A FEW AREAS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE RAP INDICATED
SOME ELEVATED CAPE/WEAK CINH IN THIS AREA...LAST FEW RUNS HAVE
INCREASED INHIBITION GREATLY SO CONFIDENCE IN OVERNIGHT
DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014
LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN
FEATURE OVER THE PLAINS WHICH LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE A SECOND WEAKER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND
600J/KG...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BEFORE MID
EVENING.
TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA AND BRING
HIGHER MIXING RATIOS UP FROM THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT.
THURSDAY THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...LEADING TO RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS. MIXING
RATIOS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW. DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON A FAIRLY WEAK 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 2000J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO BORDER AND LITTLE TO NO CINH...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DISAGREE WHERE EXACTLY THE TROUGH WILL
TRACK...BUT GENERALLY HAVE IT NORTH OF HWY 24. STORM MOVEMENT IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH...SO STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
JUST AHEAD OF IT AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE A DRY LINE WILL MOVE TO JUST WEST OF KIT CARSON AND
CHEYENNE COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP/FOLLOW THE DRY LINE AS IT MOVES EAST. DUE TO THE SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT OF ONLY 10KTS OR SO...ANY STORMS THAT BUILD OFF THE DRY
LINE WILL NOT MOVE INTO KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE DUE TO 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS AND SURFACE CAPE OF
2000J/KG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY
25. LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
STORMS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF AN INCH WILL ALLOW HEAVY RAINFALL TO
BE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014
A HOT WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE TRI-STATE REGION AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THERE WILL BE
A FEW CHANCES FOR STORMS...NOTABLY TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
OTHER THAN THESE TWO BETTER CHANCES...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
COMPARED TO THIS RECENT MONTH OF JUNE.
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT...STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD
SLOWLY MOVE EAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO MAY MAKE IT INTO EAST COLORADO BEFORE DISSIPATING. DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND MAY KEEP
CONVECTION GOING ALL NIGHT SIMILAR TO RECENT EVENTS. THE NOSE OF THE
JET WILL BE LOCATED ROUGH ALONG TO JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FROM
COLBY TO HILL CITY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ELEVATED
STORMS WILL RESIDE. WITH MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG...A FEW STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT.
ON FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR YET AGAIN ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF
8-9 C/KM. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS WEAKER...ON THE ORDER OF 20-30
KTS...ON FRIDAY SO STORMS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE. STORMS SHOULD
BE MORE OF THE PULSE VARIETY AND DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN BELOW
CLOUD LEVEL...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR DOWNBURSTS. IN ADDITION...
LARGE HAIL IS A THREAT WITH THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND...
LEADING TO A VERY HOT AND DRY FORECAST. WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE FORECAST BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A
FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS POPPED UP. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN EAST COLORADO SATURDAY BUT OTHER THAN THIS SLIM
CHANCE...THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY THIS WEEKEND.
ONE LAST HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
TOUGH AND COLD FRONT BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND FORCE IT BACK WEST.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
HARD TO PINPOINT RIGHT NOW...ESPECIALLY WHEN BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE
AROUND THE LINGERING FRONT AND MODELS DIFFER ON THEIR FRONTAL
POSITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CLOUDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OIN COVERGAGE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT THINK PROBABILITY AT TAF SITES TOO LOW TO MENTION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1231 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
ONCE CONVECTION LEAVES THE AREA WILL BE UPDATING TO CLEAR THE
WATCH AND ADJUST POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
RAP AND NAM VERIFIED WELL WITH THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A SURFACE
TROUGH/DRY LINE EXTENDED SOUTH OF THIS COLD FRONT INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. WARM AIR WAS LOCATED ABOVE THESE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WITH THE RAP STILL SUGGESTING A 700MB
TEMPERATURE OF GREATER THAN +16C LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
GIVEN THESE WARM TEMPERATURES ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP ALONG
THESE TWO BOUNDARIES AM EXPECTING THIS WILL OCCUR AFTER 23Z.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
LATE TODAY. 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND THE
CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 3500 J/KG AT 00Z TUESDAY. GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EARLY THIS EVENING ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEGIN STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT. THE LATEST RAP, NAM, AND GFS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING AN AREA OF MOISTURE AND IMPROVING
850MB-700MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES AT 00Z TUESDAY WERE FORECAST TO BE AT 1
TO 1.5 INCHES. GIVEN THE FORCING AND MOISTURE JUST NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT
ALONG WITH IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FRONT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND NEAR LOCATION OF THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE BETWEEN 00Z TUESDAY AND 06Z TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE LOCATION OF
WHERE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL MENTION FLOODING CONCERNS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. 850MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY SUGGESTS
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. GIVEN LINGERING AFTERNOON
CLOUD COVER NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL TRIM TEMPERATURES DOWN A
FEW DEGREES HERE FROM THE LATER GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN TURNING MORE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TURNING THE FLOW ALOFT
MORE NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. AS THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS, PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, A
NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH EXTENDS
BACK NORTH INTO EASTERN COLORADO. AS H5 VORT MAXIMA CREST THE
RIDGE AND DROP SOUTHEAST OFF THE ROCKIES, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY DRIFT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS EACH EVENING.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS OF EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE
LOWER 20S(C) CLOSER TO THE COLORADO BORDER. EVEN WITH DECREASING
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED, LOOK FOR HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 80S(F)
ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, PUSHING HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 90S(F) BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THROUGH 09Z...MVFR/VFR MIX WITH 3-6SM IN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR DDC AND
VCTS/TSRA. CEILINGS BKN040-050 LIFTING TOWARDS 09Z TO BKN090. WINDS
ENE TO ESE 5-15KTS AND TRENDING NORTHERLY. FROM 09Z-14Z...MVFR/VFR
MIX WITH LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR DDC WHICH MAY SEE VSBY DOWN TO
5SM AT TIMES...OTHERWISE BKN050-090 AND WINDS NORTH 5-10KTS. AFTER
14Z-15Z...ALL SITES TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH MIX OF SKC AND
SCT100-250. WINDS NNW 10-20KTS TRENDING DOWN TO NORTH AT 5-10KTS BY
00Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 82 60 84 / 60 30 10 10
GCK 62 82 59 81 / 30 20 10 10
EHA 62 78 59 79 / 70 30 20 10
LBL 64 80 61 82 / 80 30 20 10
HYS 62 84 59 80 / 20 20 0 0
P28 68 83 64 86 / 90 40 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
247 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
The northwest and northern edges of the warm sector this afternoon
are lined up right on the western and northern edges of our
forecast area. Look for thunderstorm development to expand
northeast along the edge of the warm sector between I-64 and
Highway 13 in southern Illinois over the next hour or two, as the
main cluster of storms pushes east, ahead of the MCV over southwest
Missouri, and into southeast Missouri. The convection will then
march eastward across the remainder of the area into the early
evening. The latest HRRR has things over with shortly after 00Z.
Severe Watch 383 has been issued through 03Z, but figure it will
be done before then.
Still looking for multicell storms pulsing occasionally to produce
damaging winds. Not sure if there is enough shear to support or
sustain linear development, but if this happens, the damaging wind
threat would increase. Just not sure about severe hail, but would
not be surprised for some small hail. Torrential rain can be
expected with any of the storms.
Figure that the main activity will be done this evening, and
although surface winds will be west or northwest tonight, the low-
level airmass will remain quite warm and moist across at least the
southeast half of the area. Cannot rule out some convective
activity there overnight or even into Wednesday, with the main
mid/upper-level trough moving through the region.
The GFS seems to be holding back the cold advection for Wednesday,
which makes sense, so will lean closer to the warmer MAV numbers
for highs Wednesday. Much cooler, drier air is coming for
Wednesday night and Thursday. Consensus guidance seems to have a
good handle on this.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
Models continue to show high pressure in control of our weather
Friday into Saturday. Drier and milder air will accompany the high,
with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal averages and dew
points in the middle 50s to around 60 degrees. This will make for
one of the more pleasant 4th of July holidays in quite a while. By
the end of the holiday weekend, high pressure moving off the east
coast and the development of a slow moving cold front across the
Plains will lead to winds shifting back to the south. Temperatures
and moisture will quickly increase across our region, with near
normal temperatures and dew points climbing back into the middle to
upper 60s on Sunday.
GFS and ECMWF part company Sunday night. GFS generates some light
QPF across our northern and western counties associated with an
upper level wave ahead of the approaching cold front, while ECMWF
keeps our area dry. With GEM keeping any precip just north of our
region, continued with dry conditions Sunday night for now. Models
continue to waffle with precipitation chances on Monday, leaning
drier right now. We already had some low pops going, so just went
with slight chance pops across some of our west and northwest
counties for Monday. For Monday night into Tuesday, latest GFS and
ECMWF are back in better agreement, bringing the cold front
southeast and generating some precip across our northern counties by
late Monday night. Went with slight chance pops across our north
Monday night, then increased pops across the entire area on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
Little of concern for the TAFs other than convection this
afternoon/evening. KCGI looks to be right in the area of best
convergence and TCU development according to latest observations.
Will insert a VCTS there to begin the TAF. It appears that a larger area
of convection will develop to the west over southeast Missouri
and reach KCGI by 21Z, so will use that as the beginning of TSRA
in a TEMPO. Elsewhere, confidence in timing and coverage preclude
TSRA in the TAF. Will have VCTS at KPAH and KOWB late afternoon
and early evening, as some should storms should at least be
nearby. KEVV may be just north of the development today. Will
monitor through the afternoon and amend as necessary based on
radar trends.
Could see some healthy gusts with any storms that reach a
terminal today, and outflow boundaries could play havoc with all
terminals through the early evening. Otherwise, west southwest
winds this afternoon will eventually become northwest with mixing
Wednesday morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
319 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A STRONG CAP HAS KEPT CONVECTION AT BAY DESPITE INCREASING
INSTABILITY WITH LI/S DOWN TO -8 TO -10 AND CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000
J/KG. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ACROSS THE OH RIVER FROM EVV TO
SDF THIS AFTERNOON FAILED TO INITIATE CONVECTION...EVIDENCE OF THE
CAP. IT APPEARS THE CAP WILL ERODE FIRST OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT HOLD ON IN THE SOUTH INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM AND HRRR HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB
BY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OH VALLEY TODAY. AS SUCH
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HRRR FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR EARLY
TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THE HRRR IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL FINALLY
INITIATE TO OUR WEST AND NW THIS EVENING AS REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER MO AND KS MOVES EAST. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE ENE TONIGHT...WITH THE NW PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE RANGE IN THE NW FOR TONIGHT WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH REMAINS OVER IN AND OH THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
PASSES. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER COULD HOLD
ON AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WE SHOULD BE DONE WITH PRECIPITATION
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SOME COOL
NIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
WEAK. BY MONDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY CREEP NORTH WHICH COULD
PROVIDE FUEL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT AGAIN...MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A BETTER CHANCE OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH MONDAY. BETTER
SHOT OF A SHOWER POPPING UP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT EVEN
THEN...CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
BY MONDAY AS AIRMASS MODERATES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NW OVER NW OH AND
CENTRAL INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY THAT A GIVEN SPOT WILL
EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IT IN THE TAFS. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON A MID LEVEL CAP WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AS
THESE MOVE NORTHEAST...THEY WOULD AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES. A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE CEILINGS BETWEEN 2K AND 3K FEET FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE ISOLATED MVFR
CEILINGS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AS SUCH HAVE FORECAST VFR
FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
120 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
DESPITE INCREASING INSTABILITY CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
INHIBITED WITH A STRONG CAP REMAINING IN PLACE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
NAM BUFR DATA HAS CAP IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
HOLDING INTO THE EVENING. BASED ON THIS AND THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
HAVE MOVED BACK THE START TIME FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVEN
FURTHER. NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT CAP WILL
BE IN PLACE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION AND HAVE
REMOVED ANY LOW CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR THERE MAY BE LITTLE IF ANY
CONVECTION THE ENTIRE DAY. HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...WITH LI/S TO -8 TO -10 AND CAPE AROUND 4000
J/KG. IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING THERE WILL BE A SEVERE THREAT...AND
SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE A 15 PERCENT SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER. HAVE SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND THE WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
AS A LINE OF CONVECTION QUICKLY DROPPED DOWN ACROSS INDIANA TOWARDS
NORTHERN KY SEVERAL HOURS AGO...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED
ACROSS EASTERN KY. SINCE THAT TIME...THE INITIAL LINE HAS DIED
OUT...BUT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EASTERN KY
NORTHWARDS INTO OHIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW EXITING FAR EASTERN
KY...THOUGH DECIDED TO KEEP IN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CASE THERE IS ANY REDEVELOPMENT. THESE
POPS MAY BE OVERKILL...THOUGH THE HRRR DOES SHOW POTENTIAL SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH 15Z AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WENT BACK THROUGH
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPDATED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...SO
OVERALL PATTERN DIDN/T CHANGE. FINALLY...LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS TO THE FORECAST TO MAKE SURE THAT CURRENT CONDITIONS
WERE REFLECTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
CONVECTION IS ONGOING TO OUR NW ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SE. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
STARTED DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THIS SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 MODEL GUIDANCE...SO WENT
AHEAD AND INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR NW HAS DEVELOPED TWO LINES...THE
FIRST IS DROPPING VERY QUICKLY SE...FEEDING OFF A CORRIDOR OF LLVL
MOISTURE EXTENDING NWRD FROM CENTRAL KY INTO SE INDIANA AND SW
OH...AS WELL AS CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/CAPE VALUES. AS IT
CONTINUES IN THIS DIRECTION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE LOSING STRENGTH AND BEGINNING TO BREAK.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND POSE LITTLE THREAT IF IT DOES MAKE
IT INTO NORTHERN KY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SECONDARY AND
MORE ROBUST LINE IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH EASTERN KY JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT AS IT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY...AND LOSE A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF ENERGY. A WAVE OF QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
STILL SET UP ALONG MUCH OF KY...BUT IT WILL HAVE LESSENED QUITE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM WHAT IS ONGOING AT THE MOMENT TO OUR NW. THE LAST
ECMWF RUN SHOWS ANY AREAS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY STAYING NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. ALSO...WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING A HIGH CAPE BUT LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW. ONCE THE CAP BREAKS BY LATE AFTERNOON...CAPE
VALUES WILL HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY FROM 4-5K J/KG TO 3-4K J/KG...AND
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL OR SPEED SHEAR. AS
SUCH...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH LITTLE DRIVING FORCE TO
KEEP THEM SUSTAINED/LONG LIVED.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE A SLIGHT PROGRESSION EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT...PUSHING CONVECTION FURTHER INTO THE
CWA AND FINALLY ENCOMPASSING ALL OF EASTERN KY BY THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING SE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG
PUSH IN SRLY FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE MERCURY UP TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN THIS
YEAR. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES COULD MEAN HEAT INDEXES
REACHING NEAR 100 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS HIGH ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
80S ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
EXTENDED. THEY ALL TAKE A DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS TROUGH/S ENERGY ROLLS PAST EAST KENTUCKY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN RISE
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...A LAST PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM PASSES DURING THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ITS ENERGY IS KEPT ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE OHIO RIVER. ALSO OF NOTE...THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SCOOT THE EVOLVING TROPICAL SYSTEM...OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
ALONG AHEAD OF IT LIKELY SPARING KENTUCKY ANY OF ITS EXCESSIVE
TROPICAL MOISTURE. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BE CLIMBING OVER
KENTUCKY AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGE EXERTS SOME TEMPORARY DOMINANCE FOR
OUR WEATHER. THE ECMWF IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE GFS...AND ESPECIALLY
THE GEM...WITH THIS PROCESS. THE RIDGE NEVER DOES BECOME TOO STRONG
OVER THE AREA...THOUGH...SO THAT BY SUNDAY...A FEW MINOR WAVES WILL
START TO RIPPLE PAST THE STATE IN WEAK FLOW. THE ECMWF HAS A POCKET
OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY MONDAY MORNING THAT HAS
LITTLE OTHER MODEL SUPPORT SO IT HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. FOR
THE MOST PART...FAVORED A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION WANES HEADING INTO THE POST
HOLIDAY WORK WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION OF A LARGE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING THURSDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...JUST IN TIME FOR THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. THE DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EVEN AS THE COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT IT
MODERATES ALLOWING FOR A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE JUST AFTER
PEAK HEATING MONDAY...BUT STILL RATHER SMALL GIVEN THE WEAK FEATURES
ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY SFC BOUNDARIES.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE EXTENDED...THOUGH DID
ADJUST THE EXIT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LIMIT THEM TO
MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND ALSO KEPT VERY SMALL CHANCES IN THE
NORTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMPERATURE
GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO GIVE MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NW OVER NW OH AND
CENTRAL INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY THAT A GIVEN SPOT WILL
EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IT IN THE TAFS. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON A MID LEVEL CAP WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AS
THESE MOVE NORTHEAST...THEY WOULD AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES. A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE CEILINGS BETWEEN 2K AND 3K FEET FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE ISOLATED MVFR
CEILINGS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AS SUCH HAVE FORECAST VFR
FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1234 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
DESPITE INCREASING INSTABILITY CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
INHIBITED WITH A STRONG CAP REMAINING IN PLACE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
NAM BUFR DATA HAS CAP IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
HOLDING INTO THE EVENING. BASED ON THIS AND THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
HAVE MOVED BACK THE START TIME FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVEN
FURTHER. NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT CAP WILL
BE IN PLACE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION AND HAVE
REMOVED ANY LOW CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR THERE MAY BE LITTLE IF ANY
CONVECTION THE ENTIRE DAY. HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...WITH LI/S TO -8 TO -10 AND CAPE AROUND 4000
J/KG. IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING THERE WILL BE A SEVERE THREAT...AND
SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE A 15 PERCENT SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER. HAVE SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND THE WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
AS A LINE OF CONVECTION QUICKLY DROPPED DOWN ACROSS INDIANA TOWARDS
NORTHERN KY SEVERAL HOURS AGO...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED
ACROSS EASTERN KY. SINCE THAT TIME...THE INITIAL LINE HAS DIED
OUT...BUT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EASTERN KY
NORTHWARDS INTO OHIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW EXITING FAR EASTERN
KY...THOUGH DECIDED TO KEEP IN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CASE THERE IS ANY REDEVELOPMENT. THESE
POPS MAY BE OVERKILL...THOUGH THE HRRR DOES SHOW POTENTIAL SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH 15Z AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WENT BACK THROUGH
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPDATED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...SO
OVERALL PATTERN DIDN/T CHANGE. FINALLY...LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS TO THE FORECAST TO MAKE SURE THAT CURRENT CONDITIONS
WERE REFLECTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
CONVECTION IS ONGOING TO OUR NW ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SE. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
STARTED DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THIS SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 MODEL GUIDANCE...SO WENT
AHEAD AND INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR NW HAS DEVELOPED TWO LINES...THE
FIRST IS DROPPING VERY QUICKLY SE...FEEDING OFF A CORRIDOR OF LLVL
MOISTURE EXTENDING NWRD FROM CENTRAL KY INTO SE INDIANA AND SW
OH...AS WELL AS CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/CAPE VALUES. AS IT
CONTINUES IN THIS DIRECTION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE LOSING STRENGTH AND BEGINNING TO BREAK.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND POSE LITTLE THREAT IF IT DOES MAKE
IT INTO NORTHERN KY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SECONDARY AND
MORE ROBUST LINE IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH EASTERN KY JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT AS IT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY...AND LOSE A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF ENERGY. A WAVE OF QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
STILL SET UP ALONG MUCH OF KY...BUT IT WILL HAVE LESSENED QUITE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM WHAT IS ONGOING AT THE MOMENT TO OUR NW. THE LAST
ECMWF RUN SHOWS ANY AREAS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY STAYING NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. ALSO...WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING A HIGH CAPE BUT LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW. ONCE THE CAP BREAKS BY LATE AFTERNOON...CAPE
VALUES WILL HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY FROM 4-5K J/KG TO 3-4K J/KG...AND
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL OR SPEED SHEAR. AS
SUCH...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH LITTLE DRIVING FORCE TO
KEEP THEM SUSTAINED/LONG LIVED.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE A SLIGHT PROGRESSION EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT...PUSHING CONVECTION FURTHER INTO THE
CWA AND FINALLY ENCOMPASSING ALL OF EASTERN KY BY THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING SE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG
PUSH IN SRLY FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE MERCURY UP TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN THIS
YEAR. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES COULD MEAN HEAT INDEXES
REACHING NEAR 100 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS HIGH ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
80S ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
EXTENDED. THEY ALL TAKE A DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS TROUGH/S ENERGY ROLLS PAST EAST KENTUCKY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN RISE
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...A LAST PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM PASSES DURING THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ITS ENERGY IS KEPT ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE OHIO RIVER. ALSO OF NOTE...THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SCOOT THE EVOLVING TROPICAL SYSTEM...OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
ALONG AHEAD OF IT LIKELY SPARING KENTUCKY ANY OF ITS EXCESSIVE
TROPICAL MOISTURE. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BE CLIMBING OVER
KENTUCKY AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGE EXERTS SOME TEMPORARY DOMINANCE FOR
OUR WEATHER. THE ECMWF IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE GFS...AND ESPECIALLY
THE GEM...WITH THIS PROCESS. THE RIDGE NEVER DOES BECOME TOO STRONG
OVER THE AREA...THOUGH...SO THAT BY SUNDAY...A FEW MINOR WAVES WILL
START TO RIPPLE PAST THE STATE IN WEAK FLOW. THE ECMWF HAS A POCKET
OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY MONDAY MORNING THAT HAS
LITTLE OTHER MODEL SUPPORT SO IT HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. FOR
THE MOST PART...FAVORED A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION WANES HEADING INTO THE POST
HOLIDAY WORK WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION OF A LARGE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING THURSDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...JUST IN TIME FOR THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. THE DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EVEN AS THE COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT IT
MODERATES ALLOWING FOR A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE JUST AFTER
PEAK HEATING MONDAY...BUT STILL RATHER SMALL GIVEN THE WEAK FEATURES
ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY SFC BOUNDARIES.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE EXTENDED...THOUGH DID
ADJUST THE EXIT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LIMIT THEM TO
MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND ALSO KEPT VERY SMALL CHANCES IN THE
NORTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMPERATURE
GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO GIVE MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A COLD FRONT TO OUR NW IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION. AFTER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA
TO REMAIN DRY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN THREATEN TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE FRONT BECOMES STALLED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A THREAT THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LARGE HAIL ALL THREATS TO CONTEND WITH. COVERAGE OF
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL LESSON. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED PREVAILING WX
FOR LATE TONIGHT. AS NOTED ABOVE...EXACT IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE
DETERMINED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE ONSET...BUT DID AT LEAST TRY TO
TREND TOWARDS SOME LOWERING CONDITIONS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
955 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT CAP WILL
BE IN PLACE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION AND HAVE
REMOVED ANY LOW CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR THERE MAY BE LITTLE IF ANY
CONVECTION THE ENTIRE DAY. HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...WITH LI/S TO -8 TO -10 AND CAPE AROUND 4000
J/KG. IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING THERE WILL BE A SEVERE THREAT...AND
SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE A 15 PERCENT SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER. HAVE SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND THE WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
AS A LINE OF CONVECTION QUICKLY DROPPED DOWN ACROSS INDIANA TOWARDS
NORTHERN KY SEVERAL HOURS AGO...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED
ACROSS EASTERN KY. SINCE THAT TIME...THE INITIAL LINE HAS DIED
OUT...BUT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EASTERN KY
NORTHWARDS INTO OHIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW EXITING FAR EASTERN
KY...THOUGH DECIDED TO KEEP IN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CASE THERE IS ANY REDEVELOPMENT. THESE
POPS MAY BE OVERKILL...THOUGH THE HRRR DOES SHOW POTENTIAL SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH 15Z AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WENT BACK THROUGH
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPDATED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...SO
OVERALL PATTERN DIDN/T CHANGE. FINALLY...LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS TO THE FORECAST TO MAKE SURE THAT CURRENT CONDITIONS
WERE REFLECTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
CONVECTION IS ONGOING TO OUR NW ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SE. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
STARTED DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THIS SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 MODEL GUIDANCE...SO WENT
AHEAD AND INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR NW HAS DEVELOPED TWO LINES...THE
FIRST IS DROPPING VERY QUICKLY SE...FEEDING OFF A CORRIDOR OF LLVL
MOISTURE EXTENDING NWRD FROM CENTRAL KY INTO SE INDIANA AND SW
OH...AS WELL AS CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/CAPE VALUES. AS IT
CONTINUES IN THIS DIRECTION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE LOSING STRENGTH AND BEGINNING TO BREAK.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND POSE LITTLE THREAT IF IT DOES MAKE
IT INTO NORTHERN KY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SECONDARY AND
MORE ROBUST LINE IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH EASTERN KY JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT AS IT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY...AND LOSE A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF ENERGY. A WAVE OF QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
STILL SET UP ALONG MUCH OF KY...BUT IT WILL HAVE LESSENED QUITE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM WHAT IS ONGOING AT THE MOMENT TO OUR NW. THE LAST
ECMWF RUN SHOWS ANY AREAS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY STAYING NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. ALSO...WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING A HIGH CAPE BUT LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW. ONCE THE CAP BREAKS BY LATE AFTERNOON...CAPE
VALUES WILL HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY FROM 4-5K J/KG TO 3-4K J/KG...AND
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL OR SPEED SHEAR. AS
SUCH...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH LITTLE DRIVING FORCE TO
KEEP THEM SUSTAINED/LONG LIVED.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE A SLIGHT PROGRESSION EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT...PUSHING CONVECTION FURTHER INTO THE
CWA AND FINALLY ENCOMPASSING ALL OF EASTERN KY BY THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING SE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG
PUSH IN SRLY FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE MERCURY UP TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN THIS
YEAR. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES COULD MEAN HEAT INDEXES
REACHING NEAR 100 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS HIGH ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
80S ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
EXTENDED. THEY ALL TAKE A DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS TROUGH/S ENERGY ROLLS PAST EAST KENTUCKY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN RISE
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...A LAST PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM PASSES DURING THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ITS ENERGY IS KEPT ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE OHIO RIVER. ALSO OF NOTE...THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SCOOT THE EVOLVING TROPICAL SYSTEM...OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
ALONG AHEAD OF IT LIKELY SPARING KENTUCKY ANY OF ITS EXCESSIVE
TROPICAL MOISTURE. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BE CLIMBING OVER
KENTUCKY AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGE EXERTS SOME TEMPORARY DOMINANCE FOR
OUR WEATHER. THE ECMWF IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE GFS...AND ESPECIALLY
THE GEM...WITH THIS PROCESS. THE RIDGE NEVER DOES BECOME TOO STRONG
OVER THE AREA...THOUGH...SO THAT BY SUNDAY...A FEW MINOR WAVES WILL
START TO RIPPLE PAST THE STATE IN WEAK FLOW. THE ECMWF HAS A POCKET
OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY MONDAY MORNING THAT HAS
LITTLE OTHER MODEL SUPPORT SO IT HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. FOR
THE MOST PART...FAVORED A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION WANES HEADING INTO THE POST
HOLIDAY WORK WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION OF A LARGE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING THURSDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...JUST IN TIME FOR THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. THE DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EVEN AS THE COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT IT
MODERATES ALLOWING FOR A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE JUST AFTER
PEAK HEATING MONDAY...BUT STILL RATHER SMALL GIVEN THE WEAK FEATURES
ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY SFC BOUNDARIES.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE EXTENDED...THOUGH DID
ADJUST THE EXIT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LIMIT THEM TO
MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND ALSO KEPT VERY SMALL CHANCES IN THE
NORTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMPERATURE
GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO GIVE MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A COLD FRONT TO OUR NW IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION. AFTER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA
TO REMAIN DRY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN THREATEN TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE FRONT BECOMES STALLED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A THREAT THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LARGE HAIL ALL THREATS TO CONTEND WITH. COVERAGE OF
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL LESSON. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED PREVAILING WX
FOR LATE TONIGHT. AS NOTED ABOVE...EXACT IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE
DETERMINED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE ONSET...BUT DID AT LEAST TRY TO
TREND TOWARDS SOME LOWERING CONDITIONS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
713 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
AS A LINE OF CONVECTION QUICKLY DROPPED DOWN ACROSS INDIANA TOWARDS
NORTHERN KY SEVERAL HOURS AGO...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED
ACROSS EASTERN KY. SINCE THAT TIME...THE INITIAL LINE HAS DIED
OUT...BUT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EASTERN KY
NORTHWARDS INTO OHIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW EXITING FAR EASTERN
KY...THOUGH DECIDED TO KEEP IN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CASE THERE IS ANY REDEVELOPMENT. THESE
POPS MAY BE OVERKILL...THOUGH THE HRRR DOES SHOW POTENTIAL SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH 15Z AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WENT BACK THROUGH
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPDATED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...SO
OVERALL PATTERN DIDN/T CHANGE. FINALLY...LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS TO THE FORECAST TO MAKE SURE THAT CURRENT CONDITIONS
WERE REFLECTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
CONVECTION IS ONGOING TO OUR NW ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SE. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
STARTED DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THIS SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 MODEL GUIDANCE...SO WENT
AHEAD AND INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR NW HAS DEVELOPED TWO LINES...THE
FIRST IS DROPPING VERY QUICKLY SE...FEEDING OFF A CORRIDOR OF LLVL
MOISTURE EXTENDING NWRD FROM CENTRAL KY INTO SE INDIANA AND SW
OH...AS WELL AS CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/CAPE VALUES. AS IT
CONTINUES IN THIS DIRECTION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE LOSING STRENGTH AND BEGINNING TO BREAK.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND POSE LITTLE THREAT IF IT DOES MAKE
IT INTO NORTHERN KY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SECONDARY AND
MORE ROBUST LINE IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH EASTERN KY JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT AS IT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY...AND LOSE A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF ENERGY. A WAVE OF QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
STILL SET UP ALONG MUCH OF KY...BUT IT WILL HAVE LESSENED QUITE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM WHAT IS ONGOING AT THE MOMENT TO OUR NW. THE LAST
ECMWF RUN SHOWS ANY AREAS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY STAYING NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. ALSO...WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING A HIGH CAPE BUT LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW. ONCE THE CAP BREAKS BY LATE AFTERNOON...CAPE
VALUES WILL HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY FROM 4-5K J/KG TO 3-4K J/KG...AND
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL OR SPEED SHEAR. AS
SUCH...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH LITTLE DRIVING FORCE TO
KEEP THEM SUSTAINED/LONG LIVED.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE A SLIGHT PROGRESSION EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT...PUSHING CONVECTION FURTHER INTO THE
CWA AND FINALLY ENCOMPASSING ALL OF EASTERN KY BY THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING SE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG
PUSH IN SRLY FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE MERCURY UP TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN THIS
YEAR. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES COULD MEAN HEAT INDEXES
REACHING NEAR 100 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS HIGH ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
80S ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
EXTENDED. THEY ALL TAKE A DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS TROUGH/S ENERGY ROLLS PAST EAST KENTUCKY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN RISE
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...A LAST PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM PASSES DURING THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ITS ENERGY IS KEPT ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE OHIO RIVER. ALSO OF NOTE...THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SCOOT THE EVOLVING TROPICAL SYSTEM...OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
ALONG AHEAD OF IT LIKELY SPARING KENTUCKY ANY OF ITS EXCESSIVE
TROPICAL MOISTURE. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BE CLIMBING OVER
KENTUCKY AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGE EXERTS SOME TEMPORARY DOMINANCE FOR
OUR WEATHER. THE ECMWF IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE GFS...AND ESPECIALLY
THE GEM...WITH THIS PROCESS. THE RIDGE NEVER DOES BECOME TOO STRONG
OVER THE AREA...THOUGH...SO THAT BY SUNDAY...A FEW MINOR WAVES WILL
START TO RIPPLE PAST THE STATE IN WEAK FLOW. THE ECMWF HAS A POCKET
OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY MONDAY MORNING THAT HAS
LITTLE OTHER MODEL SUPPORT SO IT HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. FOR
THE MOST PART...FAVORED A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION WANES HEADING INTO THE POST
HOLIDAY WORK WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION OF A LARGE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING THURSDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...JUST IN TIME FOR THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. THE DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EVEN AS THE COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT IT
MODERATES ALLOWING FOR A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE JUST AFTER
PEAK HEATING MONDAY...BUT STILL RATHER SMALL GIVEN THE WEAK FEATURES
ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY SFC BOUNDARIES.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE EXTENDED...THOUGH DID
ADJUST THE EXIT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LIMIT THEM TO
MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND ALSO KEPT VERY SMALL CHANCES IN THE
NORTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMPERATURE
GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO GIVE MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A COLD FRONT TO OUR NW IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION. AFTER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA
TO REMAIN DRY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN THREATEN TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE FRONT BECOMES STALLED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A THREAT THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LARGE HAIL ALL THREATS TO CONTEND WITH. COVERAGE OF
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL LESSON. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED PREVAILING WX
FOR LATE TONIGHT. AS NOTED ABOVE...EXACT IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE
DETERMINED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE ONSET...BUT DID AT LEAST TRY TO
TREND TOWARDS SOME LOWERING CONDITIONS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
646 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
AS A LINE OF CONVECTION QUICKLY DROPPED DOWN ACROSS INDIANA TOWARDS
NORTHERN KY SEVERAL HOURS AGO...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED
ACROSS EASTERN KY. SINCE THAT TIME...THE INITIAL LINE HAS DIED
OUT...BUT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EASTERN KY
NORTHWARDS INTO OHIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW EXITING FAR EASTERN
KY...THOUGH DECIDED TO KEEP IN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CASE THERE IS ANY REDEVELOPMENT. THESE
POPS MAY BE OVERKILL...THOUGH THE HRRR DOES SHOW POTENTIAL SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH 15Z AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WENT BACK THROUGH
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPDATED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...SO
OVERALL PATTERN DIDN/T CHANGE. FINALLY...LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS TO THE FORECAST TO MAKE SURE THAT CURRENT CONDITIONS
WERE REFLECTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
CONVECTION IS ONGOING TO OUR NW ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SE. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
STARTED DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THIS SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 MODEL GUIDANCE...SO WENT
AHEAD AND INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR NW HAS DEVELOPED TWO LINES...THE
FIRST IS DROPPING VERY QUICKLY SE...FEEDING OFF A CORRIDOR OF LLVL
MOISTURE EXTENDING NWRD FROM CENTRAL KY INTO SE INDIANA AND SW
OH...AS WELL AS CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/CAPE VALUES. AS IT
CONTINUES IN THIS DIRECTION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE LOSING STRENGTH AND BEGINNING TO BREAK.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND POSE LITTLE THREAT IF IT DOES MAKE
IT INTO NORTHERN KY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SECONDARY AND
MORE ROBUST LINE IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH EASTERN KY JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT AS IT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY...AND LOSE A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF ENERGY. A WAVE OF QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
STILL SET UP ALONG MUCH OF KY...BUT IT WILL HAVE LESSENED QUITE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM WHAT IS ONGOING AT THE MOMENT TO OUR NW. THE LAST
ECMWF RUN SHOWS ANY AREAS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY STAYING NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. ALSO...WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING A HIGH CAPE BUT LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW. ONCE THE CAP BREAKS BY LATE AFTERNOON...CAPE
VALUES WILL HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY FROM 4-5K J/KG TO 3-4K J/KG...AND
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL OR SPEED SHEAR. AS
SUCH...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH LITTLE DRIVING FORCE TO
KEEP THEM SUSTAINED/LONG LIVED.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE A SLIGHT PROGRESSION EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT...PUSHING CONVECTION FURTHER INTO THE
CWA AND FINALLY ENCOMPASSING ALL OF EASTERN KY BY THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING SE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG
PUSH IN SRLY FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE MERCURY UP TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN THIS
YEAR. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES COULD MEAN HEAT INDEXES
REACHING NEAR 100 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS HIGH ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
80S ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
EXTENDED. THEY ALL TAKE A DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS TROUGH/S ENERGY ROLLS PAST EAST KENTUCKY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN RISE
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...A LAST PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM PASSES DURING THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ITS ENERGY IS KEPT ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE OHIO RIVER. ALSO OF NOTE...THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SCOOT THE EVOLVING TROPICAL SYSTEM...OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
ALONG AHEAD OF IT LIKELY SPARING KENTUCKY ANY OF ITS EXCESSIVE
TROPICAL MOISTURE. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BE CLIMBING OVER
KENTUCKY AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGE EXERTS SOME TEMPORARY DOMINANCE FOR
OUR WEATHER. THE ECMWF IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE GFS...AND ESPECIALLY
THE GEM...WITH THIS PROCESS. THE RIDGE NEVER DOES BECOME TOO STRONG
OVER THE AREA...THOUGH...SO THAT BY SUNDAY...A FEW MINOR WAVES WILL
START TO RIPPLE PAST THE STATE IN WEAK FLOW. THE ECMWF HAS A POCKET
OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY MONDAY MORNING THAT HAS
LITTLE OTHER MODEL SUPPORT SO IT HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. FOR
THE MOST PART...FAVORED A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION WANES HEADING INTO THE POST
HOLIDAY WORK WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION OF A LARGE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING THURSDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...JUST IN TIME FOR THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. THE DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EVEN AS THE COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT IT
MODERATES ALLOWING FOR A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE JUST AFTER
PEAK HEATING MONDAY...BUT STILL RATHER SMALL GIVEN THE WEAK FEATURES
ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY SFC BOUNDARIES.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE EXTENDED...THOUGH DID
ADJUST THE EXIT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LIMIT THEM TO
MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND ALSO KEPT VERY SMALL CHANCES IN THE
NORTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMPERATURE
GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO GIVE MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTROL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD...BESIDES A WINDOW OF POSSIBLE MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT TAF
SITES. CONVECTION TO OUR NW HAS PRODUCED A LINE OF CLOUDS NOW MAKING
THEIR WAY INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THIS CLOUD COVER MAY BE ENOUGH
TO HAMPER SOME OF THE BEST FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THREATEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AND A
BIT GUSTIER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. ADDED IN ANOTHER LINE IN THE
TAFS FOR WINDS CALMING BACK DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
358 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
CONVECTION IS ONGOING TO OUR NW ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SE. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
STARTED DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THIS SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 MODEL GUIDANCE...SO WENT
AHEAD AND INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR NW HAS DEVELOPED TWO LINES...THE
FIRST IS DROPPING VERY QUICKLY SE...FEEDING OFF A CORRIDOR OF LLVL
MOISTURE EXTENDING NWRD FROM CENTRAL KY INTO SE INDIANA AND SW
OH...AS WELL AS CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/CAPE VALUES. AS IT
CONTINUES IN THIS DIRECTION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE LOSING STRENGTH AND BEGINNING TO BREAK.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND POSE LITTLE THREAT IF IT DOES MAKE
IT INTO NORTHERN KY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SECONDARY AND
MORE ROBUST LINE IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH EASTERN KY JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT AS IT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY...AND LOSE A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF ENERGY. A WAVE OF QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
STILL SET UP ALONG MUCH OF KY...BUT IT WILL HAVE LESSENED QUITE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM WHAT IS ONGOING AT THE MOMENT TO OUR NW. THE LAST
ECMWF RUN SHOWS ANY AREAS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY STAYING NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. ALSO...WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING A HIGH CAPE BUT LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW. ONCE THE CAP BREAKS BY LATE AFTERNOON...CAPE
VALUES WILL HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY FROM 4-5K J/KG TO 3-4K J/KG...AND
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL OR SPEED SHEAR. AS
SUCH...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH LITTLE DRIVING FORCE TO
KEEP THEM SUSTAINED/LONG LIVED.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE A SLIGHT PROGRESSION EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT...PUSHING CONVECTION FURTHER INTO THE
CWA AND FINALLY ENCOMPASSING ALL OF EASTERN KY BY THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING SE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG
PUSH IN SRLY FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE MERCURY UP TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN THIS
YEAR. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES COULD MEAN HEAT INDEXES
REACHING NEAR 100 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS HIGH ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
80S ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
EXTENDED. THEY ALL TAKE A DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS TROUGH/S ENERGY ROLLS PAST EAST KENTUCKY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN RISE
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...A LAST PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM PASSES DURING THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ITS ENERGY IS KEPT ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE OHIO RIVER. ALSO OF NOTE...THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SCOOT THE EVOLVING TROPICAL SYSTEM...OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
ALONG AHEAD OF IT LIKELY SPARING KENTUCKY ANY OF ITS EXCESSIVE
TROPICAL MOISTURE. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BE CLIMBING OVER
KENTUCKY AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGE EXERTS SOME TEMPORARY DOMINANCE FOR
OUR WEATHER. THE ECMWF IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE GFS...AND ESPECIALLY
THE GEM...WITH THIS PROCESS. THE RIDGE NEVER DOES BECOME TOO STRONG
OVER THE AREA...THOUGH...SO THAT BY SUNDAY...A FEW MINOR WAVES WILL
START TO RIPPLE PAST THE STATE IN WEAK FLOW. THE ECMWF HAS A POCKET
OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY MONDAY MORNING THAT HAS
LITTLE OTHER MODEL SUPPORT SO IT HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. FOR
THE MOST PART...FAVORED A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION WANES HEADING INTO THE POST
HOLIDAY WORK WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION OF A LARGE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING THURSDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...JUST IN TIME FOR THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. THE DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EVEN AS THE COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT IT
MODERATES ALLOWING FOR A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE JUST AFTER
PEAK HEATING MONDAY...BUT STILL RATHER SMALL GIVEN THE WEAK FEATURES
ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY SFC BOUNDARIES.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE EXTENDED...THOUGH DID
ADJUST THE EXIT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LIMIT THEM TO
MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND ALSO KEPT VERY SMALL CHANCES IN THE
NORTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMPERATURE
GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO GIVE MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTROL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD...BESIDES A WINDOW OF POSSIBLE MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT TAF
SITES. CONVECTION TO OUR NW HAS PRODUCED A LINE OF CLOUDS NOW MAKING
THEIR WAY INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THIS CLOUD COVER MAY BE ENOUGH
TO HAMPER SOME OF THE BEST FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THREATEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AND A
BIT GUSTIER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. ADDED IN ANOTHER LINE IN THE
TAFS FOR WINDS CALMING BACK DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
952 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WHICH WAS IN EFFECT EARLIER THIS EVENING
FOR SEVERAL OF OUR NRN LA PARISHES HAS EXPIRED...BUT CONVECTION
REMAINS ONGOING OVER PARTS OF E TX AND NW LA. THESE SHWRS AND TSTMS
ARE GENERALLY IN VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CONTINUES TO
SAG SWRD TOWARD THE I-20 CORRIDOR. DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION ARE HELPING TO INITIATE ADDITIONAL SHWRS AND
TSTMS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS EVEN
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO HAVE TWEAKED POPS JUST A BIT TO KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. DRIER
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FILTER SWRD BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BUT
THIS AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE OUR NRN AREAS LATER THIS
EVENING AND FOLLOW SUIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
LOOK REASONABLE WITH THE CURRENT PACKAGE SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOWS
FOR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE QUITE CHALLENGING TO PINPOINT WITH THE
BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND CONVECTION STILL ONGOING BUT THE TREND WILL
BE A SHIFT TO MORE NLY FLOW WITH THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY. EXPECT
SOME ADDITIONAL SHWRS AND TSTMS TO REFIRE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO THURSDAY...WHILE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS
FOR THIS EVENING HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
AVIATION...
THIS EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT ALONG AND ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL BE SLOWLY DECAYING THROUGH
03/06Z. WILL PREVAIL VFR CATEGORIES UNTIL EARLY MORNING THURSDAY
WHEN THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES. RETURNING
TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. MAY SEE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AFTER 03/18-03/21Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST LESS THAN 7 KNOTS THROUGH 03/14Z
THEN INCREASE TO 7-12 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY...DROPPING OFF TO LESS THAN 7 KNOTS AFTER 04/00Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387 CONTINUES OVER MANY OF OUR LA
PARISHES SOUTH OF I-20...ALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MORNING/S
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW STRETCHING FROM TOLEDO BEND TO
JONESBORO AND NEAR MONROE. PROGRESSION OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
GOOD TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UPDATES WILL LIKELY TRIM MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE WATCH BEFORE 9PM. SO FAR...SOME GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING...BUT WITH 90 PLUS HEAT IN PROGRESS FOR A
WHILE...ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA. TO
NOTE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG THE COOL
FRONT OVER CENTRAL AR.
AT THIS TIME...LIGHT NW FLOW IS IN THE LOWER LEVELS THERE OVER
AR...BUT THE MODELS AND OUR FORECAST ARE INDICATING A BACKDOOR
PUSH TOWARD SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT. SO...THERE IS SOME GLIMMER OF
HOPE WITH A CONVECTIVE ASSIST FOR OTHER AREAS THAT WERE SKIPPED
OVER DURING THE LATE MORNING AS THE OUTFLOW PASSED BY UNEVENTFUL.
HOWEVER...NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS OFTEN HAVE THERE OWN GAME IN
MIND WITH ONLY THE HRRR CLOSE IN INITIALIZING THIS NEW AR
ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...LITTLE SUPPORT ELSEWHERE AMONGST
THE GUIDANCE QPF.
THE UPPER LEVELS MAY ASSIST AS WELL WITH ANOTHER VORT DIVING INTO
THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA
OF NB/IA/KN/MO. THE TAIL OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO PLAY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT FOR
ANYTHING THAT MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET. A LARGE RIDGE IS SWINGING
IN BEHIND THAT FEATURE AND USUALLY MEANS DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A GOOD DEVELOPING...MOIST UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A PRETTY GOOD SEA BREEZE IS PUSHING IN OVER
THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND UNDER THIS UPPER LOW. SO LOTS TO KEEP UP
WITH AND HOPEFULLY FOR THE 00Z RUN TO INITIALIZE WITH AND PUT A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE INDEPENDENCE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR NOW A
DRYING TREND AND COOLER TOO...MAV/MEX IS BLENDED AND POINTS TO SOME
VERY NICE JULY MORNING/S. HIGHS TOO WILL BE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE
FOR A COUPLE TO FEW DAYS IN THE WAKE OF OUR COOL FRONT. /24/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
AVIATION...
MCS ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY
MID LVL CLOUDS...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE KTXK..KELD...KSHV...AND KMLU TERMINAL AREAS BEFORE
03/00Z. AFTN CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE AT THESE SITE.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES THRU MOST OF PERIOD. COOL
FRONT TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF AREA WITH DRIER AIRMASS. HOWEVER..
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT KLFK PRIOR TO FROPA LATE TONIGHT. /VII/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 91 67 90 67 / 20 30 20 10 10
MLU 70 89 64 88 64 / 20 20 10 10 10
DEQ 63 88 62 88 63 / 20 20 10 10 10
TXK 68 87 65 88 65 / 20 20 10 10 10
ELD 68 88 62 88 62 / 20 20 10 10 10
TYR 75 91 71 90 70 / 20 40 20 20 10
GGG 72 91 68 89 67 / 20 30 20 10 10
LFK 74 93 72 90 68 / 30 40 20 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
858 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.AVIATION...
THIS EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT ALONG AND ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL BE SLOWLY DECAYING THROUGH 03/06Z. WILL PREVAIL
VFR CATEGORIES UNTIL EARLY MORNING THURSDAY WHEN THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES. RETURNING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. MAY SEE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER 03/18-03/21Z
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST LESS
THAN 7 KNOTS THROUGH 03/14Z THEN INCREASE TO 7-12 KNOTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...DROPPING OFF TO LESS THAN 7 KNOTS AFTER
04/00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387 CONTINUES OVER MANY OF OUR LA
PARISHES SOUTH OF I-20...ALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MORNING/S
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW STRETCHING FROM TOLEDO BEND TO
JONESBORO AND NEAR MONROE. PROGRESSION OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
GOOD TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UPDATES WILL LIKELY TRIM MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE WATCH BEFORE 9PM. SO FAR...SOME GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING...BUT WITH 90 PLUS HEAT IN PROGRESS FOR A
WHILE...ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA. TO
NOTE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG THE COOL
FRONT OVER CENTRAL AR.
AT THIS TIME...LIGHT NW FLOW IS IN THE LOWER LEVELS THERE OVER
AR...BUT THE MODELS AND OUR FORECAST ARE INDICATING A BACKDOOR
PUSH TOWARD SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT. SO...THERE IS SOME GLIMMER OF
HOPE WITH A CONVECTIVE ASSIST FOR OTHER AREAS THAT WERE SKIPPED
OVER DURING THE LATE MORNING AS THE OUTFLOW PASSED BY UNEVENTFUL.
HOWEVER...NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS OFTEN HAVE THERE OWN GAME IN
MIND WITH ONLY THE HRRR CLOSE IN INITIALIZING THIS NEW AR
ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...LITTLE SUPPORT ELSEWHERE AMONGST
THE GUIDANCE QPF.
THE UPPER LEVELS MAY ASSIST AS WELL WITH ANOTHER VORT DIVING INTO
THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA
OF NB/IA/KN/MO. THE TAIL OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO PLAY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT FOR
ANYTHING THAT MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET. A LARGE RIDGE IS SWINGING
IN BEHIND THAT FEATURE AND USUALLY MEANS DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A GOOD DEVELOPING...MOIST UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A PRETTY GOOD SEA BREEZE IS PUSHING IN OVER
THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND UNDER THIS UPPER LOW. SO LOTS TO KEEP UP
WITH AND HOPEFULLY FOR THE 00Z RUN TO INITIALIZE WITH AND PUT A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE INDEPENDENCE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR NOW A
DRYING TREND AND COOLER TOO...MAV/MEX IS BLENDED AND POINTS TO SOME
VERY NICE JULY MORNING/S. HIGHS TOO WILL BE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE
FOR A COUPLE TO FEW DAYS IN THE WAKE OF OUR COOL FRONT. /24/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
AVIATION...
MCS ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY
MID LVL CLOUDS...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE KTXK..KELD...KSHV...AND KMLU TERMINAL AREAS BEFORE
03/00Z. AFTN CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE AT THESE SITE.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES THRU MOST OF PERIOD. COOL
FRONT TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF AREA WITH DRIER AIRMASS. HOWEVER..
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT KLFK PRIOR TO FROPA LATE TONIGHT. /VII/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 91 67 90 67 / 30 30 20 10 10
MLU 70 89 64 88 64 / 50 20 10 10 10
DEQ 63 88 62 88 63 / 30 20 10 10 10
TXK 68 87 65 88 65 / 30 20 10 10 10
ELD 68 88 62 88 62 / 30 20 10 10 10
TYR 75 91 71 90 70 / 30 40 20 20 10
GGG 72 91 68 89 67 / 30 30 20 10 10
LFK 74 93 72 90 68 / 30 40 20 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
806 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LATE TODAY AND THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EST...TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE MID 90S
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S
PUSHING HEAT INDICES AS WARM AS 105 TO 107. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE
EVEN APPROACHED RECORD TERRITORY. WARM TEMPS/DEWPOINTS HAVE
RESULTED IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LATEST SPC ANALYSIS DEPICTING
MLCAPE FROM 2500-3000 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS BROAD AREA OF CU DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS A SFC
TROUGH LOCATES OVER CNTRL VA. ALOFT...A WEAK VORT MAX DEPICTED IN
THE RUC AND VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTS INTO VA FROM THE SW.
WHILE THUNDERSTORM PARAMETERS AND MOISTURE REMAIN RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...WARM AIR AROUND H7 HAS CAPPED THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN RATHER FLAT CU. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
AIRMASS...STILL ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING. BEST
COVERAGE STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND.
INVERTED V SOUNDING WOULD MAKE STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE A BIT THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A VERY
MOIST BL AND SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH...ALL BUT FAR SE ZONES COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDER OVERNIGHT. MILD AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TWO MAIN FEATURES TO FOCUS ON IN THE SHORT TERM ARE 1. WHAT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME CAT 1 HURRICANE ARTHUR AND 2. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE LOCAL
AREA THURS AS ARTHUR PICKS UP FORWARD SPEED ALONG THE SE COAST.
ADDED TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED (VISIBLE ON 310K SFC AND H85 FLOW)
WILL PUSH PRECIP WATERS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF THE LOCAL
AREA. ADDED UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT THURS INTO THURS NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT LATE THURS MORNING-EARLY THURS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE REGION. WITH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS ANY IMPACTS DIRECTLY RELATED
TO ARTHUR WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SE COAST. BASED ON THE SLOW
FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT AND CORFIDI VECTORS...TRAINING OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER CNTRL VA. BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND LACK OF ANY THERMAL ADVECTION MAKES THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY PRECIP DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. AS A
RESULT...KEPT WITH WPC GUIDANCE WITH PLACING THE CORRIDOR OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN
SHORE. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS OF TRAINING. MEANWHILE BACK AT THE
COAST...HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL LIFT ALONG THE SC/NC COAST THURS.
ADDED CONVERGENCE AROUND THE BANDS WILL SPREAD INTO NE NC/SE
VA...WITH PRECIP REACHING INTO NE NC BY LATE THURS.
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE INTERACTIONS BTWN THE FRONT AND CYCLONE WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS RATHER HIGH...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES
ATTM. HIGH TIDE CYCLES COULD EXACERBATE ANY MINOR FLOODING ALONG
THE COAST. OCCASIONAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ALSO EXPECTED
(GUSTS 40-50 MPH) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NC COAST.
ARTHUR BEGINS TO LIFT OFF THE NC COAST FRIDAY MORNING...SWEEPING
THE FRONT THROUGH AS IT EXITS. THE RESULT WILL BE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...BUT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL GIVE HOPE TO FOURTH OF JULY EVENING PLANS ACROSS
INTERIOR VA/NC. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE ERN SHORE
THROUGH FRI EVENING. COOLER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID
80S.
THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THRU
SAT AS ~1025MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING
OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE SAT. HIGHS SAT IN THE LOW-MID 80S AS
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH
MID WEEK. MODELS SHOW A LEE TROF DVLPNG TUE WITH THE NEXT FRONT
APPRCHG FROM THE WEST WED. DRY SUN/MON. CHC POPS (20-30%) TUE/WED
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS WRN HALF OF FA.
STILL COMFY THRU SUN. LOWS SAT NITE IN THE U50S-U60S. HIGHS SUN
M-U80S. RETURN FLOW ALLOWS HEAT/HUMIDITY TO RETURN NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
90-95. LOWS U60S-M70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH HI PRES JUST OFFSHORE AND
A COLD FRNT WELL W OF THE AREA. SSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CU AROUND 5K FT. CHANCE OF RAIN IS TOO LO THIS
AFTN/EVENG (20-30%) TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF RAIN OUT. ANY TSTMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE PSBL THUR MORNG
ESPECIALLY AT KSBY DUE TO HIGH LO-LEVEL MOISTURE DESPITE ~10 KT
WINDS. KEPT IT P6SM ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN COMES
LATE THUR/THUR NGT DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND MOISTURE
FM TS ARTHUR.
PREDOMINANTLY S WINDS ON THUR SHOULD BACK AROUND TO A MORE NLY
DIRECTION THUR NGT INTO FRI. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO OCCUR IN NE NC AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF VA...WHERE GUSTS TO
25-35 KT ARE ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LOW
CIGS...AND POOR VSBYS SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED. OVERALL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE RAPIDLY AS FRI PROGRESSES AND HI PRES BLDS BACK INTO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH MARGINAL...WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINE UP FOR THE CHES BAY
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT AS PRS GRDNT TIGHTENS A BIT. WINDS MAY
DROP BLO SCA LVLS LATE.
FCST THEN FOCUSES ON TRPLCL STORM ARTHUR AS IT CONTS TO MOVE N
ALONG THE SE COAST AND INTO THE NC OUTER BANKS THURS NIGHT. ARTHUR
IS XPCTD TO MERGE WITH THE CD FRNT AND DEEPEN OFF THE MID ATLNTC
COAST FRI EVE...THEN TRACK RAPIDLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
TRPLCL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT S OUT CAPE CHARLES LIGHT WITH
GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS XPCTD THURS NIGHT/FRI MORN. FCST PRBLM IS
WHAT TO DO WITH THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TPC`S WIND FCST
DECIDED TO ADD THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY TO THE TRPLCL STORM WARNING
WITH THE EMPHASIS FOR GUSTS TO 35 KT. DID NOT WANT TO CONFUSE THE
SITUATION BY HOISTING GALES NEXT TO TRPLCL HEADLINES.
OTW...CONFIDENCE (IN WIND FCST) NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANY
HEADLINE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. SEAS WILL BUILD ABV 5 FT...BUT NOT UNTIL
FRI ACROSS NRN WATERS SO DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FRTHR
N WITH THIS PACKAGE. SCA OR PSBL GALE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRTHR N ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST FRI. XPCT WAVES TO BUILD TO
4-5 FT AND SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8 FT (10-14 FT POSSIBLE IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS) DURING MOST OF FRIDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING.
GUSTY NW WINDS XPCTD FOR SVRL HRS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTM LATE FRI
WITH IMPROVING CNDTNS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA.
RIP CRNT FCSTS DISCONTINED FOR AREAS UNDER TRPLCL HEADLINES.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR VAZ095-097-098.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ633-634-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...BMD/MAS
MARINE...MPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
700 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LATE TODAY AND THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EST...TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE MID 90S
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S
PUSHING HEAT INDICES AS WARM AS 105 TO 107. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE
EVEN APPROACHED RECORD TERRITORY. WARM TEMPS/DEWPOINTS HAVE
RESULTED IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LATEST SPC ANALYSIS DEPICTING
MLCAPE FROM 2500-3000 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS BROAD AREA OF CU DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS A SFC
TROUGH LOCATES OVER CNTRL VA. ALOFT...A WEAK VORT MAX DEPICTED IN
THE RUC AND VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTS INTO VA FROM THE SW.
WHILE THUNDERSTORM PARAMETERS AND MOISTURE REMAIN RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...WARM AIR AROUND H7 HAS CAPPED THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN RATHER FLAT CU. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
AIRMASS...STILL ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING. BEST
COVERAGE STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND.
INVERTED V SOUNDING WOULD MAKE STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE A BIT THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A VERY
MOIST BL AND SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH...ALL BUT FAR SE ZONES COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDER OVERNIGHT. MILD AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TWO MAIN FEATURES TO FOCUS ON IN THE SHORT TERM ARE 1. WHAT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME CAT 1 HURRICANE ARTHUR AND 2. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE LOCAL
AREA THURS AS ARTHUR PICKS UP FORWARD SPEED ALONG THE SE COAST.
ADDED TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED (VISIBLE ON 310K SFC AND H85 FLOW)
WILL PUSH PRECIP WATERS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF THE LOCAL
AREA. ADDED UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT THURS INTO THURS NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT LATE THURS MORNING-EARLY THURS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE REGION. WITH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS ANY IMPACTS DIRECTLY RELATED
TO ARTHUR WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SE COAST. BASED ON THE SLOW
FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT AND CORFIDI VECTORS...TRAINING OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER CNTRL VA. BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND LACK OF ANY THERMAL ADVECTION MAKES THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY PRECIP DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. AS A
RESULT...KEPT WITH WPC GUIDANCE WITH PLACING THE CORRIDOR OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN
SHORE. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS OF TRAINING. MEANWHILE BACK AT THE
COAST...HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL LIFT ALONG THE SC/NC COAST THURS.
ADDED CONVERGENCE AROUND THE BANDS WILL SPREAD INTO NE NC/SE
VA...WITH PRECIP REACHING INTO NE NC BY LATE THURS.
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE INTERACTIONS BTWN THE FRONT AND CYCLONE WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS RATHER HIGH...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES
ATTM. HIGH TIDE CYCLES COULD EXACERBATE ANY MINOR FLOODING ALONG
THE COAST. OCCASIONAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ALSO EXPECTED
(GUSTS 40-50 MPH) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NC COAST.
ARTHUR BEGINS TO LIFT OFF THE NC COAST FRIDAY MORNING...SWEEPING
THE FRONT THROUGH AS IT EXITS. THE RESULT WILL BE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...BUT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL GIVE HOPE TO FOURTH OF JULY EVENING PLANS ACROSS
INTERIOR VA/NC. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE ERN SHORE
THROUGH FRI EVENING. COOLER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID
80S.
THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THRU
SAT AS ~1025MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING
OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE SAT. HIGHS SAT IN THE LOW-MID 80S AS
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH
MID WEEK. MODELS SHOW A LEE TROF DVLPNG TUE WITH THE NEXT FRONT
APPRCHG FROM THE WEST WED. DRY SUN/MON. CHC POPS (20-30%) TUE/WED
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS WRN HALF OF FA.
STILL COMFY THRU SUN. LOWS SAT NITE IN THE U50S-U60S. HIGHS SUN
M-U80S. RETURN FLOW ALLOWS HEAT/HUMIDITY TO RETURN NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
90-95. LOWS U60S-M70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH HI PRES JUST OFFSHORE AND
A COLD FRNT WELL W OF THE AREA. SSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CU AROUND 5K FT. CHANCE OF RAIN IS TOO LO THIS
AFTN/EVENG (20-30%) TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF RAIN OUT. ANY TSTMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE PSBL THUR MORNG
ESPECIALLY AT KSBY DUE TO HIGH LO-LEVEL MOISTURE DESPITE ~10 KT
WINDS. KEPT IT P6SM ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN COMES
LATE THUR/THUR NGT DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND MOISTURE
FM TS ARTHUR.
PREDOMINANTLY S WINDS ON THUR SHOULD BACK AROUND TO A MORE NLY
DIRECTION THUR NGT INTO FRI. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO OCCUR IN NE NC AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF VA...WHERE GUSTS TO
25-35 KT ARE ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LOW
CIGS...AND POOR VSBYS SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED. OVERALL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE RAPIDLY AS FRI PROGRESSES AND HI PRES BLDS BACK INTO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH MARGINAL...WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINE UP FOR THE CHES BAY
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT AS PRS GRDNT TIGHTENS A BIT. WINDS MAY
DROP BLO SCA LVLS LATE.
FCST THEN FOCUSES ON TRPLCL STORM ARTHUR AS IT CONTS TO MOVE N
ALONG THE SE COAST AND INTO THE NC OUTER BANKS THURS NIGHT. ARTHUR
IS XPCTD TO MERGE WITH THE CD FRNT AND DEEPEN OFF THE MID ATLNTC
COAST FRI EVE...THEN TRACK RAPIDLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
TRPLCL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE S OF THE VA/NC LINE WITH GUSTS
BTWN 40-45 KTS XPCTD THURS NIGHT/FRI MORN. FCST PRBLM IS WHAT TO
DO JUST N OF THAT LINE GIVEN ANY GUSTS TO 35 KTS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT. EXPECT THE STRNGST GUSTS TO BE NEAR THE NC BORDER.
OTW...CONFIDENCE (IN WIND FCST) NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANY
HEADLINE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. SEAS WILL BUILD ABV 5 FT...BUT NOT UNTIL
FRI ACROSS NRN WATERS SO DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FRTHR
N WITH THIS PACKAGE. SCA OR PSBL GALE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRTHR N ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST FRI. XPCT WAVES TO BUILD TO
4-5 FT AND SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8 FT (10-14 FT POSSIBLE IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS) DURING MOST OF FRIDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING.
GUSTY NW WINDS XPCTD FOR SVRL HRS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTM LATE FRI
WITH IMPROVING CNDTNS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA.
RIP CRNT FCSTS DISCONTINED FOR AREAS UNDR TRPLCL HEADLINES.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR VAZ095-097-098.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ633-634-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...BMD/MAS
MARINE...MPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
544 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR WILL MEANDER ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST TODAY...LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN WV THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD CU DEVELOPING OVER
THE REGION...BUT MOSTLY FLAT CU WITH VERY LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT.
LATEST RUC MODEL DEPICTS UPPER WAVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE SFC
TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO SHARPEN OVER THE PIEDMONT. LATEST BLENDED
PRECIP WATER DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION WITH PRECIP WATERS AROUND 1.75 INCHES. HOWEVER...LATEST
BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT A WARM LAYER AROUND 650MB...WHICH IS
PRODUCING THE FLAT CU OVER THE REGION. LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALSO
UNDER PERFORMING VS MODEL GUIDANCE...SO AM NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT
THAT THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AT ALL THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/ISOLATED WORDING FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING AS HI-RES GUIDANCE REMAINS
PERSISTENT ON BRINGING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY A 5 KT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS FOR TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR AS IT HAS MADE LITTLE MOVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. NO
HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT WILL REASSESS WITH NHC
THIS EVENING FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES UP TO THE VA/NC COAST. REFER
TO SHORT TERM AND NHC PRODUCTS FOR THE MORE INFORMATION.
ANY CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OR IN THE PIEDMONT WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. MILD TEMPS WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WED...
POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE ANOMALOUS
CNTRL CONUS TROUGH...EJECTING INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE
THURS. WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT...A WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE. ONGOING RETURN FLOW AND UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEG ABOVE TODAYS TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S INLAND. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 FOR A FEW HOURS WED AFTERNOON. EXPECT
BETTER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDS WITH
BETTER THETA-E ADVECTION...A SHARPENING THERMAL TROUGH AND A MOIST
BL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. MLCAPE VALUES PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN
2000-2500 J/KG FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. WHILE THE BEST
FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...STILL EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BASED ON THE
AIRMASS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...WITH OUTFLOWS AND INSTABILITY PUSHING THE STORMS
EWD. WITH PW HOVERING AROUND 2", WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS, WITH A FEW WET MICROBURSTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR
WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE NEWD PROGRESS WEDS...LOCATING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST LATE WEDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDS NIGHT BASED ON THE AIRMASS AND
APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THURS-FRI...
COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WEDS NIGHT-THURS...SLOWING
ITS ADVANCE AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR PICKS UP FORWARD SPEED THURS-
THURS NIGHT. ADDED TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED (VISIBLE ON 310K SFC AND
H85 FLOW) WILL PUSH PRECIP WATERS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE UVM OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THURS AFTERNOON...BECOMING NUMEROUS LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT
AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL LIFT ALONG THE NC COAST LATE
THURS-THURS NIGHT. EXPECT SOME INTERACTION OF MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COAST...WHICH COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN SE VA/NE NC THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING. BACK
OVER CNTRL VA...ANTICIPATE MODERATE-LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
THE FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES (500-300MB DIV). THE
AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THIS FAR
OUT...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT COULD NOW BE ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL BASED
ON INCREASING CONFIDENCE AND HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. WHAT COULD BECOME
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL LOCATE OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE IMPACTS REMAIN THE SAME...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THE MAIN CONCERN. OCCASIONAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ALONG THE NE NC COAST. WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CONSISTENTLY OFFSHORE...TORNADOES APPEAR
UNLIKELY. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES (LOCALLY UP TO 4 INCHES)...FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RATHER HIGH...SO OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MANY WATER HAZARDS.
CONFIDENCE ALSO INCREASING THAT ARTHUR WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFF THE
COAST FRI AFTERNOON...SWEEPING THE FRONT THROUGH AS IT EXITS. THIS
WILL SALVAGE SOME CLEARING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...GIVING
HOPE FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY EVENING ACTIVITIES. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING AND GRADUAL DRYING FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND (CLEARING WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATER FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOOK FOR A
BREEZY DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. COOLER AND BECOMING LESS
HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIODS BEGINS WITH DRY WEATHER AS A COLD FRONT AND
TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN HAS WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE MIDWEST. MILD
TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A COMFORTABLE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S
TO 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS AROUND 90 MONDAY WARM TO THE LOW TO MID
90S TUESDAY WITH READINGS MAINLY MID TO UPR 80S NEAR THE COAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.
KEPT POPS AT 20 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WPC MARKS A SURFACE
TROUGH NE TO SW ACROSS THE AREA COULD TRIGGER SCT TSTMS BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH TO INCREASE TO 30 PERCENT AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY THIS
AFTN BUT STILL AOB 15 KT MOST LOCATIONS. SOME CU DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON BUT JUST SCT CLOUDS AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET. COULD HAVE
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS HAVE THE
CUMULUS DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THE SCT- BKN CIRRUS DECK SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WITH EACH PASSING AFTN AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A TROPICAL SYSTEM
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
COLD FRONT AND TROPICAL SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...THEN QUICKLY EXIT WELL NORTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL...LOW CIGS...POOR VISIBILITIES...AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED DURING THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HOISTED A SCA FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WINDS WERE APPROACHING 20
KNOTS AND WITH HIGH RES MODELS INDICATING WINDS TO AROUND 20 TO 22
KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECIDED IT WAS PRUDENT TO PUT THE
SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH 06Z AS WINDS CHANNEL UP THE BAY FROM THE SE/S.
THE NEXT EVENT WILL BE ARTHUR AND USED TCM WINDS FOR ABOUT A 18
HOUR PERIOD FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF ARTHUR WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY SOUTH PORTION WITH SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE TO
THE NORTH. OVER INLAND WATERS...GALE FORCE GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN CURRITUCK SOUND WITH SCA CONDITIONS ELSEWEHRE.
WENT CLOSE TO WAVE WATCH FOR THE SEAS WHICH BUILDS THEM OVER 10
FEET IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS FOR A SHORT TIME AND WELL OVER 5 FEET
TO THE NORTH. ALSO FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WAVE WATCH WHICH LOWERS SEAS
BELOW 5 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A LITTLE QUICK FOR
THE DECREASE BUT SINCE ARTHUR WILL MOVE QUICKLY... THIS SHOULD NOT
BE FAR OFF.
PLEASE SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS REGARDING
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JAB
MARINE...LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
420 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR WILL MEANDER ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST TODAY...LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN WV THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD CU DEVELOPING OVER
THE REGION...BUT MOSTLY FLAT CU WITH VERY LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT.
LATEST RUC MODEL DEPICTS UPPER WAVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE SFC
TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO SHARPEN OVER THE PIEDMONT. LATEST BLENDED
PRECIP WATER DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION WITH PRECIP WATERS AROUND 1.75 INCHES. HOWEVER...LATEST
BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT A WARM LAYER AROUND 650MB...WHICH IS
PRODUCING THE FLAT CU OVER THE REGION. LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALSO
UNDER PERFORMING VS MODEL GUIDANCE...SO AM NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT
THAT THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AT ALL THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/ISOLATED WORDING FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING AS HI-RES GUIDANCE REMAINS
PERSISTENT ON BRINGING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY A 5 KT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS FOR TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR AS IT HAS MADE LITTLE MOVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. NO
HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT WILL REASSESS WITH NHC
THIS EVENING FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES UP TO THE VA/NC COAST. REFER
TO SHORT TERM AND NHC PRODUCTS FOR THE MORE INFORMATION.
ANY CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OR IN THE PIEDMONT WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. MILD TEMPS WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WED...
POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE ANOMALOUS
CNTRL CONUS TROUGH...EJECTING INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE
THURS. WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT...A WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE. ONGOING RETURN FLOW AND UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEG ABOVE TODAYS TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S INLAND. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 FOR A FEW HOURS WED AFTERNOON. EXPECT
BETTER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDS WITH
BETTER THETA-E ADVECTION...A SHARPENING THERMAL TROUGH AND A MOIST
BL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. MLCAPE VALUES PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN
2000-2500 J/KG FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. WHILE THE BEST
FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...STILL EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BASED ON THE
AIRMASS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...WITH OUTFLOWS AND INSTABILITY PUSHING THE STORMS
EWD. WITH PW HOVERING AROUND 2", WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS, WITH A FEW WET MICROBURSTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR
WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE NEWD PROGRESS WEDS...LOCATING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST LATE WEDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDS NIGHT BASED ON THE AIRMASS AND
APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THURS-FRI...
COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WEDS NIGHT-THURS...SLOWING
ITS ADVANCE AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR PICKS UP FORWARD SPEED THURS-
THURS NIGHT. ADDED TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED (VISIBLE ON 310K SFC AND
H85 FLOW) WILL PUSH PRECIP WATERS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE UVM OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THURS AFTERNOON...BECOMING NUMEROUS LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT
AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL LIFT ALONG THE NC COAST LATE
THURS-THURS NIGHT. EXPECT SOME INTERACTION OF MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COAST...WHICH COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN SE VA/NE NC THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING. BACK
OVER CNTRL VA...ANTICIPATE MODERATE-LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
THE FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES (500-300MB DIV). THE
AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THIS FAR
OUT...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT COULD NOW BE ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL BASED
ON INCREASING CONFIDENCE AND HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. WHAT COULD BECOME
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL LOCATE OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE IMPACTS REMAIN THE SAME...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THE MAIN CONCERN. OCCASIONAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ALONG THE NE NC COAST. WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CONSISTENTLY OFFSHORE...TORNADOES APPEAR
UNLIKELY. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES (LOCALLY UP TO 4 INCHES)...FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RATHER HIGH...SO OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MANY WATER HAZARDS.
CONFIDENCE ALSO INCREASING THAT ARTHUR WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFF THE
COAST FRI AFTERNOON...SWEEPING THE FRONT THROUGH AS IT EXITS. THIS
WILL SALVAGE SOME CLEARING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...GIVING
HOPE FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY EVENING ACTIVITIES. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING AND GRADUAL DRYING FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND (CLEARING WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATER FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOOK FOR A
BREEZY DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. COOLER AND BECOMING LESS
HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIODS BEGINS WITH DRY WEATHER AS A COLD FRONT AND
TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN HAS WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE MIDWEST. MILD
TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A COMFORTABLE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S
TO 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS AROUND 90 MONDAY WARM TO THE LOW TO MID
90S TUESDAY WITH READINGS MAINLY MID TO UPR 80S NEAR THE COAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.
KEPT POPS AT 20 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WPC MARKS A SURFACE
TROUGH NE TO SW ACROSS THE AREA COULD TRIGGER SCT TSTMS BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH TO INCREASE TO 30 PERCENT AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY THIS
AFTN BUT STILL AOB 15 KT MOST LOCATIONS. SOME CU DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON BUT JUST SCT CLOUDS AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET. COULD HAVE
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS HAVE THE
CUMULUS DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THE SCT- BKN CIRRUS DECK SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WITH EACH PASSING AFTN AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A TROPICAL SYSTEM
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
COLD FRONT AND TROPICAL SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...THEN QUICKLY EXIT WELL NORTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL...LOW CIGS...POOR VISIBILITIES...AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED DURING THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HOISTED A SCA FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WINDS WERE APPROACHING 20
KNOTS AND WITH HIGH RES MODELS INDICATING WINDS TO AROUND 20 TO 22
KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECIDED IT WAS PRUDENT TO PUT THE
SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH 06Z AS WINDS CHANNEL UP THE BAY FROM THE SE/S.
THE NEXT EVENT WILL BE ARTHUR AND USED TCM WINDS FOR ABOUT A 18
HOUR PERIOD FRIDAY. THIS BRINGS WINDS TO GALE FORCE FOR A PORTION OF
FRIDAY IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND TO SCA OVER INLAND WATERS. WENT
CLOSE TO WAVE WATCH FOR THE SEAS WHICH BUILDS THEM OVER 10 FEET FOR
A SHORT TIME. ALSO FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WAVE WATCH WHICH BRINGS SEAS
BELOW 5 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A LITTLE QUICK FOR THE
DECREASE BUT SINCE ARTHUR WILL MOVE QUICKLY... THIS SHOULD NOT BE
FAR OFF.
PLEASE SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS REGARDING
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ098.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JAB
MARINE...LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
421 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
WITH A LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN NEAR JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS /WITH
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/ HAVE DEVELOPS OVER WRN UPPER MI AND
EXTEND BACK INTO NWRN WI WHERE GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE. THE LAKE BREEZE CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR
MOVING ONSHORE OVER ERN MARQUETTE/WRN ALGER COUNTIES...AND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AND MOVE INLAND E OF MARQUETTE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS CAPE AND SHEAR ARE LIMITED...AND ONLY ISOLATED
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. OVERALL...STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO HRRR QPF
OUTPUT FOR POPS AS IT HAS BEEN TRACKING FAIRLY WELL TODAY. AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI THIS EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT...GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL RESULT IN THESE AREAS.
OVER NW UPPER MI...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE REGIONS FROM THE NW WINDS.
VERY DRY AIR LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW TOMORROW...ERODING
CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND
OF CLEARING THE CLOUDS OUT FASTER AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FASTER
WITH THE INTRUSION OF THE DRY AIR. HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA BY 18Z WED. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WITH TEMPS AROUND 6C
WILL PASS OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY WED...WHICH WILL KEEP INLAND
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND MOST LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS IN THE
50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
MID 30S ARE STILL LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI TO
START OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRIEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD
00-06Z THURSDAY...BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 30-40 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE DRIEST AIR WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING TO
THE SE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
N AND CENTRAL PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7C ON LIGHT
N-NNW FLOW. IN FACT...PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 70 PERCENT
OF NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY FRIDAY. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
COMMON EACH AFTERNOON UNDER LIGHT WINDS AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FROM 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.
AS FOR SPECIFICS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S ON THURSDAY...ABOUT 5F WARMER THAN THOSE REALIZED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL AROUND 5F BELOW OF SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. DRY
AIR ALLOW FOR RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON HOVERING NEAR 25 PERCENT.
ON A POSITIVE NOTE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS BELOW
10KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS NEARING 15KTS ON THE LAKE BREEZE SWINGING
IN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. A SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN ON THE WNW FLOW ALOFT
MAY BRING ABOUT A FEW CLOUDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT LIKELY
MORE NO MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
LOOK FOR THE RETURN OF SW WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH EXITS
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND A SIZABLE SFC
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR OF SHOWERS /ISOLATED TS/ FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS ON SATURDAY TO BE ADJUSTED UP A COUPLE
DEGREES...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED AND 850MB TEMPS
JUMPING UP TO 14-16C. 70S AND 80S WILL BE COMMON. THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND MAY BE A BIT WETTER. THE SPECIFICS ABOUT WHEN AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO
KEEP A LOW CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...SO WILL KEEP A GENERAL BLEND
GOING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS FROM NEAR
IWD TO NEAR SAW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
LINE...WHILE CMX REMAINS DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR SAW FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL LEAD TO DECREASED CIGS AND POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT
CMX AND IWD...BUT WAS UNSURE ABOUT PRECIP COVERAGE SO LEFT VCSH IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DRY AIR AGGRESSIVELY MOVES IN WED
MORNING...LEADING TO CLEARING FROM NW TO SE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25KTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY...WITH THE MARINE LAYER HELPING TO KEEP WINDS IN CHECK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND GENERALLY UNDER 20KTS.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
PRODUCE WINDS BELOW 15KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST THIS WEEKEND...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BUT THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
FINALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
343 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
WITH A LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN NEAR JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS /WITH
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/ HAVE DEVELOPS OVER WRN UPPER MI AND
EXTEND BACK INTO NWRN WI WHERE GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE. THE LAKE BREEZE CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR
MOVING ONSHORE OVER ERN MARQUETTE/WRN ALGER COUNTIES...AND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AND MOVE INLAND E OF MARQUETTE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS CAPE AND SHEAR ARE LIMITED...AND ONLY ISOLATED
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. OVERALL...STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO HRRR QPF
OUTPUT FOR POPS AS IT HAS BEEN TRACKING FAIRLY WELL TODAY. AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI THIS EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT...GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL RESULT IN THESE AREAS.
OVER NW UPPER MI...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE REGIONS FROM THE NW WINDS.
VERY DRY AIR LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW TOMORROW...ERODING
CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND
OF CLEARING THE CLOUDS OUT FASTER AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FASTER
WITH THE INTRUSION OF THE DRY AIR. HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA BY 18Z WED. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WITH TEMPS AROUND 6C
WILL PASS OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY WED...WHICH WILL KEEP INLAND
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND MOST LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS IN THE
50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A GENERALLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...PROVIDING A NICE START TO THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.
THE UPPER TROUGH PRODUCING THE THE LOW CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...LEADING TO THE AREA
COMING UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS STATES TODAY AND EXTEND A SURFACE RIDGE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THUS...AFTER A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY (WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT) WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE
ON THE DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A FASTER TREND TO THE
DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS THAT WAS STARTED WITH MODEL RUNS 24HRS
AGO...SO HAVE MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED SUNSHINE MAY TRY TO OFFSET THE COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT STILL THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S (WITH A FEW 70S OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNDER DOWNSLOPING FLOW). NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...THE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY KEEP SHORELINE TEMPERATURES COOLER AND IN THE 50S.
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE IN
CONTROL AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BEFORE REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (ALTHOUGH GRADUALLY WARMING TOWARDS NORMAL BY
SATURDAY). THERE ARE A COUPLE OF ITEMS TO NOTE. FIRST...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE VERY COOL OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...PWAT VALUES AROUND 35-40 PERCENT OF NORMAL
AND CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME OF THE WEST COLD SPOTS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 30S. THE OTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE...THINK THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR (AND CAPPING ABOUT 650-600MB) FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR BUT
WILL SHOW SOME CLOUDS DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.
THE NEXT WAVE TO WATCH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
THINK PRECIP SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR ANY 4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES...ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS FEATURE TRACKS HEADING
INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE GENERAL IDEA OF IT STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WILL
GRADUALLY RAMP POPS UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND
THEN A WARM FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN
CENTRAL CANADA). SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD PRODUCE
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS FROM NEAR
IWD TO NEAR SAW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
LINE...WHILE CMX REMAINS DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR SAW FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL LEAD TO DECREASED CIGS AND POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT
CMX AND IWD...BUT WAS UNSURE ABOUT PRECIP COVERAGE SO LEFT VCSH IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DRY AIR AGGRESSIVELY MOVES IN WED
MORNING...LEADING TO CLEARING FROM NW TO SE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25KTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY...WITH THE MARINE LAYER HELPING TO KEEP WINDS IN CHECK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND GENERALLY UNDER 20KTS.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
PRODUCE WINDS BELOW 15KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST THIS WEEKEND...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BUT THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
FINALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
144 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROFFING INTO
THE WRN GREAT LKS TO THE S OF SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO IN NW ONTARIO
THAT LIES BTWN UPR RDGS ALONG THE W COAST AND ALONG THE E COAST. AN
IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OF TS IS PRESENT OVER THE LOWER LKS WHERE
VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN THE PVA AHEAD OF SHRTWV MOVING
INTO WI IS LIFTING MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MUCAPE UP TO 2000
J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH AXIS OF MUCAPE ARND 500 J/KG
EXTENDS N INTO ERN UPR MI AND THERE IS SOME OF THE DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC AND UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET MAX IN ONTARIO IN THIS
AREA AS WELL...ONLY SCT SHOWERS ARE FALLING OVER THE NE HALF OF LK
SUP/AREAS E OF GRAND MARAIS-MANISTIQUE. THE CULPRIT THAT IS
RESTRICTING GREATER SHOWER/TS COVERAGE UNDER EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLD
COVER IS VERY DRY LLVLS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB/MPX RAOBS. STRONG WSW
H925-85 WINDS UP TO 29 KTS/42 KTS THAT WERE OVER GRB AT 00Z ARE
ENHANCING THIS DRY AIR ADVCTN INTO THE CWA. LOOKING TO THE W...SKIES
ARE MOCLR OVER THE FAR WRN CWA...BUT MORE CLDS AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS
ARE PRESENT IN MN JUST AHEAD OF AND TRAILING A SFC COLD FNT THAT
EXTENDS SWWD FM THE DEEP SFC LO IN NW ONTARIO THRU MN AND INTO
NEBRASKA. THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB SHOWED A DEEP MOIST LYR FM THE SFC
THRU H3. THE 00Z H85 TEMP WAS 5C AT THE PAS MANITOBA...AND GUSTY NNW
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FNT ARE DRIVING 50-DEGREE SFC TEMPS INTO THE
NCENTRAL CONUS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND POPS EARLY THIS
MRNG OVER THE E. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO CLD/TEMPS TRENDS AND SHRA CHCS
AS COLD FNT NOW IN MN PUSHES TO THE E AND ACRS UPR MI TODAY.
EARLY THIS MRNG/TDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME UPR LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WL
LINGER OVER THE ERN CWA THRU SUNRISE...LATEST RUC FCST SHOWS
STEADILY LOWERING H85 DEWPTS AT NEWBERRY. SO SUSPECT ANY SHOWERS WL
BE E OF THAT PORTION OF THE CWA BY FCST ISSUANCE. AT THE SAME
TIME...MOISTER LLVLS AHEAD OF APRCHG SFC COLD FNT ARE FCST TO PUSH
INTO THE WRN ZNS BY 12Z. SO INCLUDED SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
W TOWARD 12Z DESPITE AN ABSENCE OF SGNFT DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THESE
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS WILL THEN SPREAD E WITH THE COLD FNT...WHICH IS
FCST TO REACH THE FAR ERN CWA IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DEEP
LYR QVECTOR DVGC FCST OVER THE ERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN...THE GREAT
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS GENERATE MORE PCPN IN THIS AREA THIS AFTN...
WHEN ARRIVAL OF SFC COLD FNT WL BE IN BETTER SYNC WITH SOME DAYTIME
HEATING AND PERHAPS SOME ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH CNVGC
OF LK BREEZES OFF LK MI AND SUP. IN FACT... FCST SDNGS SHOW FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LYR MOISTENING SIMILAR TO WHAT IS SHOWN ON THE 00Z
BISMARCK RAOB. SO MAINTAINED HIER FCST POPS IN THIS AREA. BUT SINCE
THE FCST LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE IN THE ABSENCE OF
DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WL INCLUDE ONLY A SCHC FOR TS. A GOOD DEAL OF LO
CLD WL LINGER OVER THE CWA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FNT...
AND THE COMBINATION OF THE CLD COVER AND CAD BEHIND THE BNDRY MAY
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL THIS AFTN...AT LEAST OVER THE FAR W WHERE THE W
WINDS WL UPSLOPE OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP.
TNGT...ANOTHER SHRTWV NOW OVER NE MANITOBA THAT IS ROTATING ARND THE
CLOSED LO IS FCST TO APRCH THE WRN CWA LATE TODAY AND THEN SWING
ACRS THE CWA TNGT...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME PVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC.
THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD SUSTAIN DEEPER MSTR/AT LEAST
SCT SHOWERS WITHIN LINGERING LLVL MOIST CYC FLOW DESPITE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THE BEST CHC FOR THESE SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE SE IN
THE EVNG. UPSLOPE W WIND WL KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING OVER THE W THRU
MUCH OF THE NGT EVEN AFTER NVA/DRYING ALF ARRIVE FOLLOWING THE
SHRTWV PASSAGE LATE. WITH WSHFT TO THE NW OFF THE COOL LK SUP WATERS
AND H85 TEMPS FALLING AS LO AS 2C OVER THE W TOWARD 12Z...EXPECTING
A MUCH COOLER NGT WITH LO TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S OVER MOST OF
THE NRN TIER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A GENERALLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...PROVIDING A NICE START TO THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.
THE UPPER TROUGH PRODUCING THE THE LOW CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...LEADING TO THE AREA
COMING UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS STATES TODAY AND EXTEND A SURFACE RIDGE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THUS...AFTER A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY (WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT) WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE
ON THE DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A FASTER TREND TO THE
DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS THAT WAS STARTED WITH MODEL RUNS 24HRS
AGO...SO HAVE MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED SUNSHINE MAY TRY TO OFFSET THE COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT STILL THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S (WITH A FEW 70S OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNDER DOWNSLOPING FLOW). NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...THE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY KEEP SHORELINE TEMPERATURES COOLER AND IN THE 50S.
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE IN
CONTROL AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BEFORE REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (ALTHOUGH GRADUALLY WARMING TOWARDS NORMAL BY
SATURDAY). THERE ARE A COUPLE OF ITEMS TO NOTE. FIRST...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE VERY COOL OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...PWAT VALUES AROUND 35-40 PERCENT OF NORMAL
AND CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME OF THE WEST COLD SPOTS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 30S. THE OTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE...THINK THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR (AND CAPPING ABOUT 650-600MB) FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR BUT
WILL SHOW SOME CLOUDS DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.
THE NEXT WAVE TO WATCH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
THINK PRECIP SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR ANY 4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES...ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS FEATURE TRACKS HEADING
INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE GENERAL IDEA OF IT STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WILL
GRADUALLY RAMP POPS UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND
THEN A WARM FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN
CENTRAL CANADA). SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD PRODUCE
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS FROM NEAR
IWD TO NEAR SAW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
LINE...WHILE CMX REMAINS DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR SAW FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL LEAD TO DECREASED CIGS AND POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT
CMX AND IWD...BUT WAS UNSURE ABOUT PRECIP COVERAGE SO LEFT VCSH IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DRY AIR AGGRESSIVELY MOVES IN WED
MORNING...LEADING TO CLEARING FROM NW TO SE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25KTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY...WITH THE MARINE LAYER HELPING TO KEEP WINDS IN CHECK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND GENERALLY UNDER 20KTS.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
PRODUCE WINDS BELOW 15KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST THIS WEEKEND...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BUT THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
FINALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GAYLORD MI
140 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO
HUDSON BAY TODAY...CONTINUING THE WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS AND
USHERING IN COOLER...DRIER AIR.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS...WILL BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
WHILE I HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND
AFTERNOON POPS...PRIMARY NOTICEABLE CHANGE WAS TO DROP
THUNDER...AS EVEN THE OVERLY-MOIST NAM CAN ONLY MUSTER 400 J/KG
WITH THE RAP FAR LESS THAN THIS. WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO
SLOWLY FALL IN THIS AREA AND REALLY NOT ALL THAT COLD OF AN
AIRMASS AT H7/5...SEE ANY THUNDER THREAT AS VERY MINOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. LIGHTNING POTENTIAL IN THE U.P.
CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:
WELL...NORTHERN MICHIGAN ESCAPED YET ANOTHER EVENT OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE WEATHER. WE DID HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS ROLL ON THROUGH...AND
SOME SMALL HAIL IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT MOST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER ONCE
AGAIN WAS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THE UPPER LEVELS SHOW A SLOWLY
ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH THE INITIAL VORT
MAX/MCV PUSHING OFF TO OUR NE. THERE IS ANOTHER EMBEDDED VORT MAX
AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH LIFTING INTO MN ATTM...WHILE YET ANOTHER
WAVE AND TROUGH WAS SEEN DROPPING INTO THE DAKOTAS. BOTH WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS...THE LATTER WITH THE MORE CONGESTED
ACTIVITY. AS FAR AS ANY IMMEDIATE WEATHER IN NRN MICHIGAN...THERE
WERE SOME SPRINKLES TRAVERSING AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32 WHILE
THERE WERE HINTS OF SOME LOWER CLOUD TRYING TO FORM...ALONG AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT THAT WAS WORKING THROUGH WISCONSIN. THE AIR MASS
REMAIN ON THE HUMID SIDE...BUT SFC DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED BACK INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S. STILL LIKELY SOME AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
COOLER WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRY AND SET UP
SHOP IN NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH FROM
MN WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER TO EASTERN UPPER AND WISCONSIN TODAY. IT`S
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
ABLE TO SPARK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS CONVERGENCE LIKELY TO BE
ENHANCED BY FUNNELING EFFECT OF WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH LAKE
MICHIGAN....AND THE DESIRE FOR MORE WNW WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH.
SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF FCST BUFR SOUNDINGS REVELS A FEW/SEVERAL
HUNDRED POTENTIAL J/KG OF MUCAPE...AND COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO. NOTHING SEVERE. MAYBE A LATE DAY SHOWER TRYING TO
FIRE OFF IN NRN LOWER...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES TONIGHT ALONG
WITH THE VORT MAX/TROUGH FROM THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE HAS A BIT
MORE ANTICIPATED FORCING ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. RIGHT NOW...THIS FORCING IS MAXIMIZED AROUND THE GTV BAY
REGION...SO BEST CHANCES THERE. TEMPERATURES NOT AS WARM TODAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOWER 70S IN EASTERN UPPER...TO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER
80S (WARMEST IN NE LOWER WITH HELP OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS). SHOULD
ALSO BE A TAD GUSTY TODAY WITH COMMON GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. MOST OF
THAT WIND WILL BE GONE HEADING THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED
COOLING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S MOST
AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
...END OF THE HEAT AND A PLEASANT FOURTH...
OVERVIEW...THE PATTERN IS AMPLIFYING AS THE 500 MB LOW THAT WAS OVER
150W YESTERDAY IS NOW AROUND 140W. THIS HAS BEGUN TO KICK THE 500 MB
LOW THAT WAS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THE LAST FEW DAYS TOWARD THE
EAST. THIS MORNING THE LOW WAS JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES EAST
(TODAY), THEN STARTING WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE RAIN FREE, COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LEADING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND.
(7/2)WEDNESDAY...AFTER THE FRONT HAS GONE THROUGH, IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WOULD BE SOME SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE 500 MB TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKED AT THE VARIOUS STABILITY
INDICES WHICH SUGGEST THAT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON, THE K-INDEX GOES NEGATIVE IN NW LOWER AND
E UPPER, AND WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE DAY SHOULD TURN OUT MOSTLY SUNNY BE THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT, AND WITH
THE COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXPECT THAT THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE INTO THE LOWER 40S. MAYBE SOME AREA COULD GET
TO THE UPPER 30S.
(7/3)THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. LEADING TO ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY AND
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WON`T RISE MUCH WITH THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 8 OR 9C. THEY WILL TRY TO MAKE A RUN AT 70F.
EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...(FOURTH OF JULY)FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, MOVING A LITTLE TO THE
EAST BY 12Z/SAT. DRY DAY. GOOD THING THAT WE KEPT THE NIGHT DRY AS
WELL. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS HAS BACK OFF THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. (7/5)SATURDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH AND THE SFC DRY
AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY DAY. HOWEVER,
OVERNIGHT, THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN A WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
LASTS INTO THE SUNDAY. (7/6)SUNDAY...WILL CONTINUE THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS THE WAVE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE REGION BOTH DURING THE DAY
AND AT NIGHT. (7/7)MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
BY THE MORNING, SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. MAYBE RAIN SHOWERS AT NIGHT AS WELL, IF THE FRONT
STALLS AS THE MODELS SUGGEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
SUMMARY: A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
RESTRICTIONS: VFR ALL TERMINALS AT THIS TIME WITH SOME RECENT MVFR
CIGS AT MBL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME POP UP SHRAS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER /BUT LIKELY NOT OVER ANY OF THE TERMINALS/. FOR
TONIGHT...A AREA OF SHOWERS AND LOWER STRATUS WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ALL SITES WILL SEE MVFR
CIGS...WITH GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR AT PLN/MBL. THERE WILL BE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE A STRONG SIGNAL TO BRING
CONDITIONS TO VFR BEFORE 18Z/WED.
WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS 15G25KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO
5-10KTS THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND INCREASING TO 10KTS FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WEDNESDAY.
LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.
THUNDER: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
STILL HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN A FEW
SPOTS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIOR TO A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE AROUND SUNRISE. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CORRIDOR OF WIND IN SW FLOW THAT
WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON UP THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN...STRAITS...THE ST MARYS...AND
PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. THIS GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT HEADING
THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE A ND A MUCH
MORE SLACK GRADIENT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347-
349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ARNOTT
SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GAYLORD MI
1051 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO
HUDSON BAY TODAY...CONTINUING THE WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS AND
USHERING IN COOLER...DRIER AIR.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS...WILL BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
WHILE I HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND
AFTERNOON POPS...PRIMARY NOTICEABLE CHANGE WAS TO DROP
THUNDER...AS EVEN THE OVERLY-MOIST NAM CAN ONLY MUSTER 400 J/KG
WITH THE RAP FAR LESS THAN THIS. WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO
SLOWLY FALL IN THIS AREA AND REALLY NOT ALL THAT COLD OF AN
AIRMASS AT H7/5...SEE ANY THUNDER THREAT AS VERY MINOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. LIGHTNING POTENTIAL IN THE U.P.
CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:
WELL...NORTHERN MICHIGAN ESCAPED YET ANOTHER EVENT OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE WEATHER. WE DID HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS ROLL ON THROUGH...AND
SOME SMALL HAIL IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT MOST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER ONCE
AGAIN WAS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THE UPPER LEVELS SHOW A SLOWLY
ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH THE INITIAL VORT
MAX/MCV PUSHING OFF TO OUR NE. THERE IS ANOTHER EMBEDDED VORT MAX
AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH LIFTING INTO MN ATTM...WHILE YET ANOTHER
WAVE AND TROUGH WAS SEEN DROPPING INTO THE DAKOTAS. BOTH WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS...THE LATTER WITH THE MORE CONGESTED
ACTIVITY. AS FAR AS ANY IMMEDIATE WEATHER IN NRN MICHIGAN...THERE
WERE SOME SPRINKLES TRAVERSING AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32 WHILE
THERE WERE HINTS OF SOME LOWER CLOUD TRYING TO FORM...ALONG AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT THAT WAS WORKING THROUGH WISCONSIN. THE AIR MASS
REMAIN ON THE HUMID SIDE...BUT SFC DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED BACK INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S. STILL LIKELY SOME AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
COOLER WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRY AND SET UP
SHOP IN NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH FROM
MN WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER TO EASTERN UPPER AND WISCONSIN TODAY. IT`S
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
ABLE TO SPARK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS CONVERGENCE LIKELY TO BE
ENHANCED BY FUNNELING EFFECT OF WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH LAKE
MICHIGAN....AND THE DESIRE FOR MORE WNW WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH.
SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF FCST BUFR SOUNDINGS REVELS A FEW/SEVERAL
HUNDRED POTENTIAL J/KG OF MUCAPE...AND COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO. NOTHING SEVERE. MAYBE A LATE DAY SHOWER TRYING TO
FIRE OFF IN NRN LOWER...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES TONIGHT ALONG
WITH THE VORT MAX/TROUGH FROM THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE HAS A BIT
MORE ANTICIPATED FORCING ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. RIGHT NOW...THIS FORCING IS MAXIMIZED AROUND THE GTV BAY
REGION...SO BEST CHANCES THERE. TEMPERATURES NOT AS WARM TODAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOWER 70S IN EASTERN UPPER...TO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER
80S (WARMEST IN NE LOWER WITH HELP OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS). SHOULD
ALSO BE A TAD GUSTY TODAY WITH COMMON GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. MOST OF
THAT WIND WILL BE GONE HEADING THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED
COOLING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S MOST
AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
...END OF THE HEAT AND A PLEASANT FOURTH...
OVERVIEW...THE PATTERN IS AMPLIFYING AS THE 500 MB LOW THAT WAS OVER
150W YESTERDAY IS NOW AROUND 140W. THIS HAS BEGUN TO KICK THE 500 MB
LOW THAT WAS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THE LAST FEW DAYS TOWARD THE
EAST. THIS MORNING THE LOW WAS JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES EAST
(TODAY), THEN STARTING WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE RAIN FREE, COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LEADING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND.
(7/2)WEDNESDAY...AFTER THE FRONT HAS GONE THROUGH, IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WOULD BE SOME SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE 500 MB TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKED AT THE VARIOUS STABILITY
INDICES WHICH SUGGEST THAT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON, THE K-INDEX GOES NEGATIVE IN NW LOWER AND
E UPPER, AND WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE DAY SHOULD TURN OUT MOSTLY SUNNY BE THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT, AND WITH
THE COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXPECT THAT THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE INTO THE LOWER 40S. MAYBE SOME AREA COULD GET
TO THE UPPER 30S.
(7/3)THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. LEADING TO ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY AND
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WON`T RISE MUCH WITH THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 8 OR 9C. THEY WILL TRY TO MAKE A RUN AT 70F.
EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...(FOURTH OF JULY)FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, MOVING A LITTLE TO THE
EAST BY 12Z/SAT. DRY DAY. GOOD THING THAT WE KEPT THE NIGHT DRY AS
WELL. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS HAS BACK OFF THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. (7/5)SATURDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH AND THE SFC DRY
AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY DAY. HOWEVER,
OVERNIGHT, THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN A WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
LASTS INTO THE SUNDAY. (7/6)SUNDAY...WILL CONTINUE THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS THE WAVE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE REGION BOTH DURING THE DAY
AND AT NIGHT. (7/7)MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
BY THE MORNING, SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. MAYBE RAIN SHOWERS AT NIGHT AS WELL, IF THE FRONT
STALLS AS THE MODELS SUGGEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE DAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25
KTS OUT OF THE WSW. SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRETTY CLEAR AND VFR
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BEFORE THICKENING CLOUDS (STILL VFR) ARRIVE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR A ROGUE RAIN SHOWER
INCREASES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COOL AND SATURATE FOR IFR/OW END MVFR
CIGS. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE AFTER 06Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
STILL HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN A FEW
SPOTS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIOR TO A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE AROUND SUNRISE. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CORRIDOR OF WIND IN SW FLOW THAT
WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON UP THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN...STRAITS...THE ST MARYS...AND
PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. THIS GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT HEADING
THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE A ND A MUCH
MORE SLACK GRADIENT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347-
349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ARNOTT
SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
755 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROFFING INTO
THE WRN GREAT LKS TO THE S OF SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO IN NW ONTARIO
THAT LIES BTWN UPR RDGS ALONG THE W COAST AND ALONG THE E COAST. AN
IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OF TS IS PRESENT OVER THE LOWER LKS WHERE
VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN THE PVA AHEAD OF SHRTWV MOVING
INTO WI IS LIFTING MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MUCAPE UP TO 2000
J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH AXIS OF MUCAPE ARND 500 J/KG
EXTENDS N INTO ERN UPR MI AND THERE IS SOME OF THE DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC AND UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET MAX IN ONTARIO IN THIS
AREA AS WELL...ONLY SCT SHOWERS ARE FALLING OVER THE NE HALF OF LK
SUP/AREAS E OF GRAND MARAIS-MANISTIQUE. THE CULPRIT THAT IS
RESTRICTING GREATER SHOWER/TS COVERAGE UNDER EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLD
COVER IS VERY DRY LLVLS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB/MPX RAOBS. STRONG WSW
H925-85 WINDS UP TO 29 KTS/42 KTS THAT WERE OVER GRB AT 00Z ARE
ENHANCING THIS DRY AIR ADVCTN INTO THE CWA. LOOKING TO THE W...SKIES
ARE MOCLR OVER THE FAR WRN CWA...BUT MORE CLDS AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS
ARE PRESENT IN MN JUST AHEAD OF AND TRAILING A SFC COLD FNT THAT
EXTENDS SWWD FM THE DEEP SFC LO IN NW ONTARIO THRU MN AND INTO
NEBRASKA. THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB SHOWED A DEEP MOIST LYR FM THE SFC
THRU H3. THE 00Z H85 TEMP WAS 5C AT THE PAS MANITOBA...AND GUSTY NNW
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FNT ARE DRIVING 50-DEGREE SFC TEMPS INTO THE
NCENTRAL CONUS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND POPS EARLY THIS
MRNG OVER THE E. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO CLD/TEMPS TRENDS AND SHRA CHCS
AS COLD FNT NOW IN MN PUSHES TO THE E AND ACRS UPR MI TODAY.
EARLY THIS MRNG/TDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME UPR LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WL
LINGER OVER THE ERN CWA THRU SUNRISE...LATEST RUC FCST SHOWS
STEADILY LOWERING H85 DEWPTS AT NEWBERRY. SO SUSPECT ANY SHOWERS WL
BE E OF THAT PORTION OF THE CWA BY FCST ISSUANCE. AT THE SAME
TIME...MOISTER LLVLS AHEAD OF APRCHG SFC COLD FNT ARE FCST TO PUSH
INTO THE WRN ZNS BY 12Z. SO INCLUDED SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
W TOWARD 12Z DESPITE AN ABSENCE OF SGNFT DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THESE
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS WILL THEN SPREAD E WITH THE COLD FNT...WHICH IS
FCST TO REACH THE FAR ERN CWA IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DEEP
LYR QVECTOR DVGC FCST OVER THE ERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN...THE GREAT
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS GENERATE MORE PCPN IN THIS AREA THIS AFTN...
WHEN ARRIVAL OF SFC COLD FNT WL BE IN BETTER SYNC WITH SOME DAYTIME
HEATING AND PERHAPS SOME ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH CNVGC
OF LK BREEZES OFF LK MI AND SUP. IN FACT... FCST SDNGS SHOW FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LYR MOISTENING SIMILAR TO WHAT IS SHOWN ON THE 00Z
BISMARCK RAOB. SO MAINTAINED HIER FCST POPS IN THIS AREA. BUT SINCE
THE FCST LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE IN THE ABSENCE OF
DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WL INCLUDE ONLY A SCHC FOR TS. A GOOD DEAL OF LO
CLD WL LINGER OVER THE CWA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FNT...
AND THE COMBINATION OF THE CLD COVER AND CAD BEHIND THE BNDRY MAY
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL THIS AFTN...AT LEAST OVER THE FAR W WHERE THE W
WINDS WL UPSLOPE OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP.
TNGT...ANOTHER SHRTWV NOW OVER NE MANITOBA THAT IS ROTATING ARND THE
CLOSED LO IS FCST TO APRCH THE WRN CWA LATE TODAY AND THEN SWING
ACRS THE CWA TNGT...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME PVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC.
THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD SUSTAIN DEEPER MSTR/AT LEAST
SCT SHOWERS WITHIN LINGERING LLVL MOIST CYC FLOW DESPITE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THE BEST CHC FOR THESE SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE SE IN
THE EVNG. UPSLOPE W WIND WL KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING OVER THE W THRU
MUCH OF THE NGT EVEN AFTER NVA/DRYING ALF ARRIVE FOLLOWING THE
SHRTWV PASSAGE LATE. WITH WSHFT TO THE NW OFF THE COOL LK SUP WATERS
AND H85 TEMPS FALLING AS LO AS 2C OVER THE W TOWARD 12Z...EXPECTING
A MUCH COOLER NGT WITH LO TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S OVER MOST OF
THE NRN TIER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A GENERALLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...PROVIDING A NICE START TO THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.
THE UPPER TROUGH PRODUCING THE THE LOW CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...LEADING TO THE AREA
COMING UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS STATES TODAY AND EXTEND A SURFACE RIDGE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THUS...AFTER A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY (WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT) WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE
ON THE DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A FASTER TREND TO THE
DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS THAT WAS STARTED WITH MODEL RUNS 24HRS
AGO...SO HAVE MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED SUNSHINE MAY TRY TO OFFSET THE COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT STILL THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S (WITH A FEW 70S OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNDER DOWNSLOPING FLOW). NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...THE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY KEEP SHORELINE TEMPERATURES COOLER AND IN THE 50S.
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE IN
CONTROL AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BEFORE REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (ALTHOUGH GRADUALLY WARMING TOWARDS NORMAL BY
SATURDAY). THERE ARE A COUPLE OF ITEMS TO NOTE. FIRST...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE VERY COOL OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...PWAT VALUES AROUND 35-40 PERCENT OF NORMAL
AND CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME OF THE WEST COLD SPOTS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 30S. THE OTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE...THINK THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR (AND CAPPING ABOUT 650-600MB) FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR BUT
WILL SHOW SOME CLOUDS DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.
THE NEXT WAVE TO WATCH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
THINK PRECIP SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR ANY 4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES...ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS FEATURE TRACKS HEADING
INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE GENERAL IDEA OF IT STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WILL
GRADUALLY RAMP POPS UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND
THEN A WARM FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN
CENTRAL CANADA). SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD PRODUCE
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
AREA OF LLVL MSTR IN CYC W FLOW TO THE S OF DEEP LO PRES IN NW
ONTARIO WL BRING PLENTY OF LO CLDS TO THE TAF SITES TODAY. SINCE THE
PRES GRADIENT WL BE SHARP...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE W WIND AT SAW AND
MORE DAYTIME HEATING AT THAT LOCATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR PREDOMINANT
VFR CONDITIONS EVEN THOUGH CIGS MAY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE UNDER
-SHRA THAT MAY IMPACT THAT SITE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVNG. WITH AN
UPSLOPE W WIND...MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX...EVEN
THOUGH LK STABILIZATION MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF VFR WX AT CMX THIS
AFTN. THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/LINGERING MSTR IN THE
PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING TNGT WL BRING A RETURN OF PREDOMINANT
MVFR CIGS TO ALL THE TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25KTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY...WITH THE MARINE LAYER HELPING TO KEEP WINDS IN CHECK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND GENERALLY UNDER 20KTS.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
PRODUCE WINDS BELOW 15KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST THIS WEEKEND...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BUT THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
FINALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
413 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROFFING INTO
THE WRN GREAT LKS TO THE S OF SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO IN NW ONTARIO
THAT LIES BTWN UPR RDGS ALONG THE W COAST AND ALONG THE E COAST. AN
IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OF TS IS PRESENT OVER THE LOWER LKS WHERE
VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN THE PVA AHEAD OF SHRTWV MOVING
INTO WI IS LIFTING MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MUCAPE UP TO 2000
J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH AXIS OF MUCAPE ARND 500 J/KG
EXTENDS N INTO ERN UPR MI AND THERE IS SOME OF THE DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC AND UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET MAX IN ONTARIO IN THIS
AREA AS WELL...ONLY SCT SHOWERS ARE FALLING OVER THE NE HALF OF LK
SUP/AREAS E OF GRAND MARAIS-MANISTIQUE. THE CULPRIT THAT IS
RESTRICTING GREATER SHOWER/TS COVERAGE UNDER EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLD
COVER IS VERY DRY LLVLS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB/MPX RAOBS. STRONG WSW
H925-85 WINDS UP TO 29 KTS/42 KTS THAT WERE OVER GRB AT 00Z ARE
ENHANCING THIS DRY AIR ADVCTN INTO THE CWA. LOOKING TO THE W...SKIES
ARE MOCLR OVER THE FAR WRN CWA...BUT MORE CLDS AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS
ARE PRESENT IN MN JUST AHEAD OF AND TRAILING A SFC COLD FNT THAT
EXTENDS SWWD FM THE DEEP SFC LO IN NW ONTARIO THRU MN AND INTO
NEBRASKA. THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB SHOWED A DEEP MOIST LYR FM THE SFC
THRU H3. THE 00Z H85 TEMP WAS 5C AT THE PAS MANITOBA...AND GUSTY NNW
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FNT ARE DRIVING 50-DEGREE SFC TEMPS INTO THE
NCENTRAL CONUS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND POPS EARLY THIS
MRNG OVER THE E. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO CLD/TEMPS TRENDS AND SHRA CHCS
AS COLD FNT NOW IN MN PUSHES TO THE E AND ACRS UPR MI TODAY.
EARLY THIS MRNG/TDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME UPR LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WL
LINGER OVER THE ERN CWA THRU SUNRISE...LATEST RUC FCST SHOWS
STEADILY LOWERING H85 DEWPTS AT NEWBERRY. SO SUSPECT ANY SHOWERS WL
BE E OF THAT PORTION OF THE CWA BY FCST ISSUANCE. AT THE SAME
TIME...MOISTER LLVLS AHEAD OF APRCHG SFC COLD FNT ARE FCST TO PUSH
INTO THE WRN ZNS BY 12Z. SO INCLUDED SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
W TOWARD 12Z DESPITE AN ABSENCE OF SGNFT DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THESE
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS WILL THEN SPREAD E WITH THE COLD FNT...WHICH IS
FCST TO REACH THE FAR ERN CWA IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DEEP
LYR QVECTOR DVGC FCST OVER THE ERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN...THE GREAT
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS GENERATE MORE PCPN IN THIS AREA THIS AFTN...
WHEN ARRIVAL OF SFC COLD FNT WL BE IN BETTER SYNC WITH SOME DAYTIME
HEATING AND PERHAPS SOME ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH CNVGC
OF LK BREEZES OFF LK MI AND SUP. IN FACT... FCST SDNGS SHOW FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LYR MOISTENING SIMILAR TO WHAT IS SHOWN ON THE 00Z
BISMARCK RAOB. SO MAINTAINED HIER FCST POPS IN THIS AREA. BUT SINCE
THE FCST LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE IN THE ABSENCE OF
DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WL INCLUDE ONLY A SCHC FOR TS. A GOOD DEAL OF LO
CLD WL LINGER OVER THE CWA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FNT...
AND THE COMBINATION OF THE CLD COVER AND CAD BEHIND THE BNDRY MAY
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL THIS AFTN...AT LEAST OVER THE FAR W WHERE THE W
WINDS WL UPSLOPE OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP.
TNGT...ANOTHER SHRTWV NOW OVER NE MANITOBA THAT IS ROTATING ARND THE
CLOSED LO IS FCST TO APRCH THE WRN CWA LATE TODAY AND THEN SWING
ACRS THE CWA TNGT...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME PVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC.
THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD SUSTAIN DEEPER MSTR/AT LEAST
SCT SHOWERS WITHIN LINGERING LLVL MOIST CYC FLOW DESPITE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THE BEST CHC FOR THESE SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE SE IN
THE EVNG. UPSLOPE W WIND WL KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING OVER THE W THRU
MUCH OF THE NGT EVEN AFTER NVA/DRYING ALF ARRIVE FOLLOWING THE
SHRTWV PASSAGE LATE. WITH WSHFT TO THE NW OFF THE COOL LK SUP WATERS
AND H85 TEMPS FALLING AS LO AS 2C OVER THE W TOWARD 12Z...EXPECTING
A MUCH COOLER NGT WITH LO TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S OVER MOST OF
THE NRN TIER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A GENERALLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...PROVIDING A NICE START TO THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.
THE UPPER TROUGH PRODUCING THE THE LOW CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...LEADING TO THE AREA
COMING UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS STATES TODAY AND EXTEND A SURFACE RIDGE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THUS...AFTER A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY (WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT) WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE
ON THE DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A FASTER TREND TO THE
DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS THAT WAS STARTED WITH MODEL RUNS 24HRS
AGO...SO HAVE MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED SUNSHINE MAY TRY TO OFFSET THE COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT STILL THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S (WITH A FEW 70S OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNDER DOWNSLOPING FLOW). NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...THE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY KEEP SHORELINE TEMPERATURES COOLER AND IN THE 50S.
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE IN
CONTROL AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BEFORE REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (ALTHOUGH GRADUALLY WARMING TOWARDS NORMAL BY
SATURDAY). THERE ARE A COUPLE OF ITEMS TO NOTE. FIRST...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE VERY COOL OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...PWAT VALUES AROUND 35-40 PERCENT OF NORMAL
AND CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME OF THE WEST COLD SPOTS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 30S. THE OTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE...THINK THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR (AND CAPPING ABOUT 650-600MB) FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR BUT
WILL SHOW SOME CLOUDS DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.
THE NEXT WAVE TO WATCH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
THINK PRECIP SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR ANY 4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES...ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS FEATURE TRACKS HEADING
INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE GENERAL IDEA OF IT STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WILL
GRADUALLY RAMP POPS UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND
THEN A WARM FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN
CENTRAL CANADA). SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD PRODUCE
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS INCREASING LLVL MSTR WILL WRAP INTO THE WRN U.P. IN A
CYCLONIC UPSLOPE WRLY FLOW. THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR AT KSAW BY MID TO LATE TUE AFTERNOON BUT OTEHRWISE EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO TUE EVENING AT THE TAF SITES.
WEST WINDS MAY GUST AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS AT KCMX ON TUESDAY WITH A
COLD FROPA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25KTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY...WITH THE MARINE LAYER HELPING TO KEEP WINDS IN CHECK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND GENERALLY UNDER 20KTS.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
PRODUCE WINDS BELOW 15KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST THIS WEEKEND...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BUT THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
FINALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THE STACKED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL FINALLY MAKE EASTWARD
PROGRESS TODAY. WHILE IT DOES SO...A LOBE OF COOL AND MOIST AIR WILL
ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HRRR AND HOPWRF ARE
RATHER CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A BAND OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
PUSHING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED...LESS ORGANIZED
AND LESS INTENSE ACTIVITY BEHIND IT. THERE IS SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT NOT TOO MUCH TO GENERATE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
WITH THE LEADING BAND. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE IN...TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING FOR A CHILLY DAY BY
FIRST OF JULY STANDARDS.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING WITH A QUICK WEAKENING
OF SHOWERS FOLLOWING SUNSET. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
SHROUDED IN CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO
LOW...BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY STILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS CENTRAL
MN. THE RECORD LOW AT MSP IS 49 AND THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR
LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
LONGER TERM TRENDS INCLUDE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. ALONG
WITH THE WARMER AIR WILL COME AN INCREASING THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
SPRINKLES LINGERING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP
AS WELL. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM TO THE
70 MARK MOST PLACES.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE MOST OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK THROUGH THE 70S...BUT REMAINING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO
BRING IN HIGHER HEIGHTS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EAST COAST TROPICAL
SYSTEM...AND LIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE 80S MOST AREAS. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FRIDAY...THEN POSSIBLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS BEEN SENDING A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR.
THE 00Z ECMWF HAS LIFTED THE ACTIVITY MAINLY NORTH INTO SATURDAY.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO LET THE MODELS MERGE TO SOME CONCLUSION.
WONT TIME ANYTHING INTO THE WEEKEND FOR NOW...BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A COLD FRONT CURVING FROM NEAR KDLH TO KSTC TO KFSD WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH KEAU LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE FRISKY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS MENTIONED AT KMSP...KRNH AND
KEAU. PRETTY SOLID MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH EVEN SOME IFR FOR KAXN. AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING ARRIVING AROUND DAYBREAK FOR KAXN AND
REACHING KEAU BY LATE MORNING. WINDS BECOMING NW WITH FROPA WITH
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS. GUSTS REACHING THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE. NW
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND NW 6-10 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.
KMSP...WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THROUGH 21Z. CEILINGS DETERIORATING TO MVFR
BY 21Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEARING (VFR) TAKING
PLACE IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS S-SE 5-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. MVFR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. SE 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
702 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THE STACKED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL FINALLY MAKE EASTWARD
PROGRESS TODAY. WHILE IT DOES SO...A LOBE OF COOL AND MOIST AIR WILL
ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HRRR AND HOPWRF ARE
RATHER CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A BAND OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
PUSHING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED...LESS ORGANIZED
AND LESS INTENSE ACTIVITY BEHIND IT. THERE IS SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT NOT TOO MUCH TO GENERATE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
WITH THE LEADING BAND. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE IN...TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING FOR A CHILLY DAY BY
FIRST OF JULY STANDARDS.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING WITH A QUICK WEAKENING
OF SHOWERS FOLLOWING SUNSET. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
SHROUDED IN CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO
LOW...BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY STILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS CENTRAL
MN. THE RECORD LOW AT MSP IS 49 AND THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR
LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
LONGER TERM TRENDS INCLUDE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. ALONG
WITH THE WARMER AIR WILL COME AN INCREASING THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
SPRINKLES LINGERING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP
AS WELL. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM TO THE
70 MARK MOST PLACES.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE MOST OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK THROUGH THE 70S...BUT REMAINING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO
BRING IN HIGHER HEIGHTS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EAST COAST TROPICAL
SYSTEM...AND LIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE 80S MOST AREAS. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FRIDAY...THEN POSSIBLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS BEEN SENDING A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR.
THE 00Z ECMWF HAS LIFTED THE ACTIVITY MAINLY NORTH INTO SATURDAY.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO LET THE MODELS MERGE TO SOME CONCLUSION.
WONT TIME ANYTHING INTO THE WEEKEND FOR NOW...BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY FILLING IN OVER MN THIS MORNING AS A
DISTURBANCE ROTATES IN FROM NORTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS ARE ALSO
ACCOMPANYING IT WITH VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED TO IFR LEVELS AT
TIMES IN MDT TO HVY RAIN. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN
TODAY...BUT OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE AND BEHIND IT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND
SUNSET...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.
SOME CLEARING IS FORECAST AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR WEDNESDAY.
KMSP...LOW CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING THE TERMINAL...BUT THERE ARE
PATCHES OF VFR CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY TO THE DAKOTA BORDER. THINK
THESE CIGS WILL FILL IN THIS MORNING SO WENT MORE ON THE PESSIMISTIC
SIDE. BEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE MIDDAY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE...AND VEER SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS S-SE 5-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
410 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THE SURFACE LOW WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW IS
FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. IT IS CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO...HAVING WEAKENED SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS...WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVER HUDSON BAY INDICATING THE
LOW SHOULD CONTINUE IN ITS NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. HOWEVER...WE ARE
NOT GOING TO AVOID A CLOUDY AND RAINY DAY...WITH AN AREA OF CLOUD
AND RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM MANITOBA OVERNIGHT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING VERY WARM TODAY...IN FACT THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE PROBABLY AT THEIR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY
ALREADY...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. BY MID AFTERNOON THEY MAY ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S.
THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S. SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
BLOOM ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MORE COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA ALOFT TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES...DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. HAVE
GONE WITH CHANCE POPS...AS COVERAGE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE
SCATTERED...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
TODAY. TONIGHT THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH EVEN
AS THEY SLOWLY ROTATE EAST OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S. HAVE CONFINED POPS TO MAINLY THE
EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER LATE EVENING. WEDNESDAY
WE WILL RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA WITH DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THERE WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH COOL NW FLOW ALOFT. THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
MORNING.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TO THE ILLINOIS
AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AREA BY FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE THIS FAR OUT.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY MONDAY...AND BRING AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
AREAS WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE CEILINGS
REMAIN OR DROP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS TO IFR. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
WILL ALSO OCCUR TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND AND OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. WE KEPT CEILINGS MVFR ON TUESDAY...BUT
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE RAP THAT THEY COULD RISE TO
LOW END VFR AT KDLH/KBRD/KHYR BY MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE AREA...WE FEEL THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF CU/STRATOCU RESULTING IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
MVFR CEILINGS. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 63 48 68 49 / 30 30 10 0
INL 59 44 69 47 / 50 20 0 0
BRD 65 50 72 51 / 60 30 0 0
HYR 66 49 70 46 / 20 20 10 0
ASX 67 47 68 47 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
306 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THE STACKED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL FINALLY MAKE EASTWARD
PROGRESS TODAY. WHILE IT DOES SO...A LOBE OF COOL AND MOIST AIR WILL
ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HRRR AND HOPWRF ARE
RATHER CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A BAND OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
PUSHING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED...LESS ORGANIZED
AND LESS INTENSE ACTIVITY BEHIND IT. THERE IS SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT NOT TOO MUCH TO GENERATE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
WITH THE LEADING BAND. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE IN...TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING FOR A CHILLY DAY BY
FIRST OF JULY STANDARDS.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING WITH A QUICK WEAKENING
OF SHOWERS FOLLOWING SUNSET. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
SHROUDED IN CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO
LOW...BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY STILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS CENTRAL
MN. THE RECORD LOW AT MSP IS 49 AND THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR
LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
LONGER TERM TRENDS INCLUDE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. ALONG
WITH THE WARMER AIR WILL COME AN INCREASING THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
SPRINKLES LINGERING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP
AS WELL. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM TO THE
70 MARK MOST PLACES.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE MOST OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK THROUGH THE 70S...BUT REMAINING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO
BRING IN HIGHER HEIGHTS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EAST COAST TROPICAL
SYSTEM...AND LIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE 80S MOST AREAS. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FRIDAY...THEN POSSIBLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS BEEN SENDING A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR.
THE 00Z ECMWF HAS LIFTED THE ACTIVITY MAINLY NORTH INTO SATURDAY.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO LET THE MODELS MERGE TO SOME CONCLUSION.
WONT TIME ANYTHING INTO THE WEEKEND FOR NOW...BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SSW TO WSW AND
SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KTS. THIS HAS JUST BEGUN TO ENTER WESTERN WISC
AND SHOULS REACH KEAU AROUND 07Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL FOLLOW AND
REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
BEST LIFT WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MN BUT IT MAY GRAZE PARTS OF
CENTRAL MN. HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF DROPPING KAXN TO IFR...WITH
KSTC REMAINING JUST ABOVE 1000 FT AGL. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF
KSTC GOES IFR. OTHER AREAS GENERALLY DROPPING TO 1200-1800
FEET...MAINLY BETWEEN 10Z-17Z ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS.
VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT BE RESTRICTED TOO MUCH IN SHOWERS. THUNDER
THREAT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED THAT IN ANY OF
THE TAFS.
KMSP... WSW WIND WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MODELS
ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT MVFR CEILINGS MOVING IN
AROUND 09Z-10Z. THEY ARE ALSO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WHEN
CEILINGS DROPS BELOW 1700 FEET. WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE 1500
FT AGL CEILINGS STAY TIL 17Z OR SO...SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS S-SE 5-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1217 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER
OUR WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS...AND IT
TAKES THE PRECIP FURTHER EAST INTO OUR CWA THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WE
WILL UPDATE AND PUSH POPS FURTHER EAST AS WELL INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. LOSS OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASING
COVERAGE OVER EASTERN AREAS LATE THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
NEAR TERM FOCUS ON WINDS. THE STRONG GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR THE 30-35 KT WINDS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF
AFTER SUNSET. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE FOUND
ALONG THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE BORDERLAND/IRON RANGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS TO REDEVELOP. ELSEWHERE...THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
CURRENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER SRN MANITOBA. THIS LOW WILL BE THE FEATURE
OF INTEREST FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT SLIDES EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER...SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS...GUSTY NW
WINDS AND PLUMMETING H85 TEMPS. LATEST ECM/GFS/GEM/NAM ALL SUGGEST
H85 READINGS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND BY
00Z WED. DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
REGION IN THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...HAVE
INCLUDED ISOLD THUNDER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT...BASICALLY CLEARING OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. THE GFS AND THE GEM DO BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF THOUGH ON THURSDAY SO WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDING SOME SMALL POPS TO THAT PERIOD. MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY. THE DIFFERENCES FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY ARE RUNNING FAIRLY LARGE AT THIS POINT. THE ECMWF
ACTUALLY BRINGS A SIZABLE AREA OF QPF ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRY. WILL HAVE SOME SMALL POPS
MOSTLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS IF THE
MODELS TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF. LOOKS LIKE SUBTLE
FEATURES COULD SET OFF SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME PRETTY BIG
DIFFERENCES THOUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS
FAIRLY LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED. THE COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S IN SPOTS
BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
AREAS WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE CEILINGS
REMAIN OR DROP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS TO IFR. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
WILL ALSO OCCUR TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND AND OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. WE KEPT CEILINGS MVFR ON TUESDAY...BUT
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE RAP THAT THEY COULD RISE TO
LOW END VFR AT KDLH/KBRD/KHYR BY MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE AREA...WE FEEL THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF CU/STRATOCU RESULTING IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
MVFR CEILINGS. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 47 68 49 72 / 30 10 10 0
INL 43 69 46 74 / 20 0 10 0
BRD 49 72 50 75 / 20 10 0 0
HYR 49 73 45 74 / 20 10 10 0
ASX 49 69 47 71 / 30 10 10 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1203 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
Line of thunderstorms have entered the far northern part of the
CWA late this evening just ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorms
will continue to move southeast tonight as the cold front moves
southeast across the area. The latest runs of the RAP shows that
low level convergence will weaken along the front at the same time
that a vort max moves east into the Great Lakes. HRRR composite
reflectivity goes along well with going forecast showing a gradual
decrease in areal coverage in the thunderstorms overnight as the
front moves south tonight. Otherwise rest of the forecast still
looks good.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
Some places reaching heat indices of 100-105 this afternoon due to
warm temperatures around 90 degrees and very high surface dew points
in the middle to upper 70s. The heat advisory will continue in
effect for the St Louis metro area into the early evening hours.
With a capped atmosphere and little if any forcing, not getting the
typical diurnal isolated to scattered showers/storms this afternoon
across our forecast area. Convection is expected to continue to
develop across IA and northwest MO and eventually shift
southeastward into northeast MO and west central IL early this
evening as a shortwave and cold front along with outflow boundaries
ahead of the front approach and help to break the cap and provide a
surface focus for convection. Due to the extreme instability along
with sufficient low-mid level wind shear, damaging winds along with
large hail and isolated tornadoes are possible with these storms
this evening across northeast MO and west central IL. Went with a
compromise between the faster NCEP 4 km WRF and the slower HRRR
model for the precipitation forecast. A broken line of convection
is expected to drop southeastward through northeast MO and west
central IL early this evening. This line of convection should
gradually weaken later this evening and into the overnight hours as
it moves into central MO and southwest IL, although maybe not as
fast as the HRRR model depicts. Slightly cooler low temperatures
are expected tonight compared to last night across northeast MO and
west central IL behind the southeastward moving cold front.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
(Tuesday)
Cooler day is in store for Tuesday as initial cold front should clear the
southern extent of the CWA by Tuesday morning. Drier air with dewpoints
filtering down into the 60s is also expected. Chances of showers and storms
are forecast to be confined to southeastern Missouri where a shortwave
will round the base of an amplifying longwave trough and interact with sagging
frontal boundary/baroclinic zone. Rest of forecast area is expected to remain
dry with highs about 3-7F cooler than today but it will feel quite a bit
better than today due to dewpoints also lowering.
Secondary cold front should slip by the area overnight Tuesday night and
is expected to pass through dry. Main impact this frontal boundary will
bring is that it will usher in the start of some unseasonably cool and dry
weather.
(Wednesday - Friday)
The Wednesday through Friday time period will be characterized by much
cooler than normal temperatures accompanied by unseasonably low dewpoints.
Look for temperatures to be some 10 to near 15 degrees below normal day
and night. This results in highs in the 70s with lows in the 50s...not too
unlike what was observed early in July of last year. Lows on Thursday
morning...and to a lesser degree Friday morning...may even approach record
minimums for the date. All in all...a beautiful and pleasant 4th of July
looks to be in store for the bi-state region.
(Saturday - Monday)
Surface ridge and associated anticyclone will slowly move off to the east
with upper-level heights also on the rise. This will result in a
moderation in temperatures as well as a climb in dewpoints/humidity levels.
The process will be slow and gradual however leading to comfortable levels
of temps/humidities thanks to persistent dry/cool low-level flow around
Great Lakes. More typical summertime temperatures and dewpoints look to
hold off until Monday.
Next chance of precipitation in the form of showers and thunderstorms will
be Saturday night through Sunday as a shortwave travels around the periphery
of upper-level high across the desert southwest.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
Weakening broken line of showers and thunderstorms extending from
central Illinois through central Missouri continues to move east
and southeast. These storms will continue to weaken as they
approach STL area. One frontal boundary moving across northern
through west central Missouri. Second fronal boundary will move
through Missouri during the mie to late afternoon on Tuesday.
Specifics for KSTL: The first of two frontal boundaries will move
through STL area after 0800 UTC. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to weaken as they approach STL area.
Local gusts of 30 kts possible near thunderstorms. Second cold
front will move through STL mid to late afternoon as winds shift
from westerly to northwest 10 to 12kts.
RP
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
244 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE WORKING INTO THE AREA
TODAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH THICKER CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT
DOWN TREND IN STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE WORKS NORTH INTO THE STATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
19Z LAPS DATA AND LATEST RADAR PICTURE SYNCING UP WELL AS THE BULK
OF THE SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONT DVD AND
THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE NORTHERN MTS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY IS POISED OVER THE PLAINS HOWEVER CLOUDS AND RESULTING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ARE SLOWING DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST HRRR AND
RUC AGREE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE DIVIDE WILL SPREAD EAST TOWARD THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SHARP
DRYLINE OVER WESTERN NM WILL FAVOR DRIER PRECIP ACTIVITY WEST OF
THE DIVIDE WITH WET/DRY ACTIVITY BTWN THE DIVIDE AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. THE SPC STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE PRODUCT INDICATES A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SOCORRO COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING THAT
DEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE HRRR INDICATES THIS CLUSTER COMING OUT OF SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO THEN RIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BLENDED
THE 2 SOLUTIONS SO MUCH OF THE EAST IS AT HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY
FOR TONIGHT.
GAP WINDS WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
FORCE THE MOISTURE SURGE MUCH FARTHER WEST INTO EASTERN ARIZONA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE THETA-E AXIS WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH STEERING FLOW FORCING ACTIVITY EAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE ABQ/SAF METRO IN THE EVENING. PWAT VALUES
FROM 1 TO 1.5 FROM WEST TO EAST AND LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SO MAINTAINED THAT WORDING THRU WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AROUND CENTRAL NM INCLUDING ABQ AND SAF IN QUITE SOME TIME.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BECOME ORIENTED
MORE WEST-EAST OVER NORTHERN NM. NORTH-SOUTH STEERING FLOW WILL
FAVOR ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN TO SLIDE INTO THE
ABQ/SAF METRO AREA. CURRENT POP GRIDS TREND CHANCES DOWN TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY HOWEVER IT WILL DEPEND
ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE FALLS THROUGH THURSDAY AND WORKS WITH STRONG
RECYCLING PROCESSES. THE GFS INDICATES A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
MOIST INSTABILITY AGAIN OVER CENTRAL NM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS
SO AGAIN STEERING FLOW WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THE ABQ/SAF AREAS.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RAMPING UP THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR/EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO ESPECIALLY FROM THE
UPPER GILA REGION SOUTH WHERE THE AIR MASS QUICKLY DESTABILIZED
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER EASTERLY PUSH. STILL CONCERN
FOR DRIER STORMS HERE WITH LIGHTNING AND MICROBURST POTENTIAL
BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THOUGH
IMPROVING MOISTURE PROFILES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.
AIR MASS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE IMPACTS
OF LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT HAVE LINGERED LONGER. STILL WATCHING FOR A
REINFORCING SURGE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE IS FORCED WESTWARD. THUS...LOOK FOR REJUVENATED EASTERLY
GAP WINDS LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADIENTS RELAX WED AM. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...DRIER DEWPOINTS LOOK TO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND WEST WITH A TREND TOWARD MORE DRY OR MIXED WET AND DRY
STORMS FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BENEATH WEAK STEERING FLOW.
RH RECOVERIES MUCH MUCH IMPROVED WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT READINGS
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERMS BUT WILL START A DOWNWARD TREND BY
TUESDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND UPWARD WEDNESDAY AS WETTING PRECIP
SHIFTS WESTWARD. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH
WETTER STORMS IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL...AND DRIER OR MIX OF WET AND
DRY ACROSS THE FAR WEST PRIMARILY FROM THE DIVIDE WESTWARD. EXPECT FAIR TO
POOR VENTILATION WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE EAST AND SPOTTY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE WEST.
THURSDAY WILL START TO SEE DIMINISHING PRECIP IN THE EAST BUT
INCREASING TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND WEST. FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION
FROM THE WEST TO THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY BUT GOOD TO EXCELLENT
IN THE EAST. BY FRIDAY JULY 4TH...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL AREAS...WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
NEAR NORMAL AREA WIDE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES UNTIL TUESDAY. 32
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AVIATION WX IMPACTS RELATED TO SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE DURING THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. DECENT SURFACE MOISTURE BROUGHT IN FROM OVERNIGHT
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHRA AND TSRA EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...WITH GREATER CHANCES OF -TSRA FOR
KSAF...AS WELL AS AREAS NEAR THE CONTDVD IN WESTERN NM. INCLUDED VCSH
AND VCTS FOR TAF SITES ON THE EASTERN PLAINS...AS WELL AS KABQ FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOR AREAS AFFECTED BY
SHRA AND TS. LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR IN THE EAST TONIGHT
AS REINFORCING SURGES FROM THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE BUT DRY TSRA STILL A CONCERN FOR AREAS NEAR
THE CONTDVD EXTENDING EAST TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. 32
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 57 93 58 92 / 5 10 20 20
DULCE........................... 43 87 43 87 / 10 30 40 40
CUBA............................ 51 84 50 85 / 20 50 60 40
GALLUP.......................... 54 91 55 90 / 10 20 30 30
EL MORRO........................ 51 83 51 82 / 20 40 40 40
GRANTS.......................... 53 86 52 86 / 20 40 40 40
QUEMADO......................... 55 86 54 83 / 20 30 40 30
GLENWOOD........................ 52 92 51 89 / 30 40 50 30
CHAMA........................... 44 80 44 80 / 20 60 60 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 61 80 61 81 / 40 50 60 40
PECOS........................... 56 75 55 77 / 50 60 70 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 77 51 79 / 30 50 50 40
RED RIVER....................... 44 69 45 71 / 40 60 60 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 37 71 36 75 / 40 60 70 60
TAOS............................ 50 79 49 82 / 30 40 50 30
MORA............................ 51 72 50 77 / 50 60 70 50
ESPANOLA........................ 56 84 55 86 / 30 30 50 20
SANTA FE........................ 58 78 58 80 / 40 40 60 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 84 57 86 / 30 30 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 85 65 87 / 30 30 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 88 65 89 / 30 30 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 64 89 64 90 / 30 30 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 90 65 91 / 30 30 50 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 59 90 58 90 / 30 30 50 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 64 90 64 91 / 30 30 50 20
SOCORRO......................... 69 93 68 91 / 40 30 60 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 60 85 58 86 / 40 50 60 40
TIJERAS......................... 61 83 60 84 / 40 30 60 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 51 79 51 81 / 50 50 70 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 79 54 82 / 50 50 60 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 61 83 60 82 / 60 40 60 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 85 61 84 / 50 30 50 30
RUIDOSO......................... 55 79 53 80 / 60 50 50 60
CAPULIN......................... 55 72 56 79 / 50 50 50 30
RATON........................... 57 74 56 83 / 40 50 40 30
SPRINGER........................ 56 77 55 85 / 40 50 50 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 52 75 53 79 / 40 50 60 30
CLAYTON......................... 59 77 59 86 / 50 30 40 30
ROY............................. 60 74 60 81 / 50 50 50 30
CONCHAS......................... 66 80 65 87 / 70 40 40 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 65 79 64 85 / 60 50 40 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 63 80 62 89 / 70 40 50 20
CLOVIS.......................... 60 77 59 83 / 60 40 40 20
PORTALES........................ 64 80 62 86 / 70 40 40 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 80 63 86 / 70 50 40 20
ROSWELL......................... 67 84 65 87 / 50 30 40 20
PICACHO......................... 62 79 60 82 / 70 40 40 30
ELK............................. 58 75 57 78 / 70 60 50 40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1154 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AVIATION WX IMPACTS RELATED TO SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE DURING THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. DECENT SURFACE MOISTURE BROUGHT IN FROM OVERNIGHT
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHRA AND TSRA EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...WITH GREATER CHANCES OF -TSRA FOR
KSAF...AS WELL AS AREAS NEAR THE CONTDVD IN WESTERN NM. INCLUDED VCSH
AND VCTS FOR TAF SITES ON THE EASTERN PLAINS...AS WELL AS KABQ FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOR AREAS AFFECTED BY
SHRA AND TS. LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR IN THE EAST TONIGHT
AS REINFORCING SURGES FROM THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE BUT DRY TSRA STILL A CONCERN FOR AREAS NEAR
THE CONTDVD EXTENDING EAST TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. 32
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TO THE WEATHER PATTERN IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY
AS A STOUT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT RACES WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT ONLY BRINGING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO A HEALTHY DOSE OF INCREASED MOISTURE.
GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...MOST NOTABLY
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THROUGH GAPS
AND CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NEW MEXICO. OF
MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD WHERE SOME
STRONG AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA BORDER WITH ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MUCH OF NEW MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE STATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH
EACH SUBSEQUENT DAY WILL LIKELY SEE FEWER STORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE CENTROID OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AZ...LEAVING THE WESTERLIES DISPLACED FROM THE
GREATER SOUTHWEST REGION. STORMS IN SE CO...SW KS...NW OK...AND NW
TX HURLED OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT RACED INTO EASTERN AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL NM. THIS BOUNDARY PRECEDED THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
WHICH IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND WEST...AND LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
JUST ENTERED TAOS...LAS VEGAS...AND CLINES CORNERS AS OF 3 AM.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...INDUCING A GUSTY CANYON/GAP WIND IN MANY FAVORED CENTRAL
AREAS WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW
DAYS...THIS WILL INITIATE AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND TO SOME EXTENT THURSDAY. BOUNDARY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WILL RUN OUT OF MOMENTUM NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE IT COULD BE AN INITIATION POINT FOR
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON EASTERN/UPSLOPE FACES. SOME UPSLOPE WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN FACES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TODAY.
ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF...MORE
INTO THE EVENING...OVER THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS
OF NM AND INTO WEST TX WHERE A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE SETTING UP
AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE ABOVE. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS ON THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO EXTEND
OVER PORTIONS OF CHAVES COUNTY TO ROOSEVELT COUNTY BEFORE
EXTENDING FARTHER EAST INTO TX...HOWEVER THE LOCAL WRF CARRIES
THIS CONVERGENCE FARTHER SOUTH WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT NORTHWARD
CLOSER TO I-40. THE AXIS OF DILITATION FOR THE DEFORMATION ZONE
WOULD BE NEAR THIS LINE WITH BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALSO
ALIGNING NEAR. HAVE PAINTED SOME LIKELY POPS IN THIS SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FORCING
TONIGHT...AND THIS AREA COULD BE ONE OF CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. STORM MOTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM NW TO SE TODAY WITH
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...BUT SOME TRAINING CELLS AND LINEAR
STRUCTURE MAY INTRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE DEFORMATION ZONE
TONGIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL PICK UP SOME MORE STEAM TONIGHT...ADVANCING TOWARD
THE AZ BORDER...AND CONSEQUENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WESTERN ZONES WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY WILL BE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BOTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM...BUT INTO
THE EVENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND GENERAL STORM
PROPAGATIONS TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY ALLOW MANY ADJACENT AREAS TO
SEE RAINFALL TOO. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH MORE IN THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER MORE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
INTO THURSDAY THE SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE THE UPPER HIGH ORBITS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR RECYCLING
THURSDAY...AND MODELS ARE MAKING QUICK USE OF IT WITH MANY ZONES
LIKELY SEEING SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR A DAY-BY-
DAY DRYING AND LESS TO RECYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING AT ARM`S
LENGTH OF NM INTO THE LONG WEEKEND.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE STEERING FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR IDEAL
FOR A TRADITIONAL NORTH-SOUTH FLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NOR FOR
A TRANSIENT SUBTROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE AND STRONG
HEAT FLUX FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA SEEM TO
BE PRIMED TO FUEL NM WITH PLENTY OF MONSOON FUEL ONCE THE STEERING
FLOW ALLOWS.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TRANSITION TO A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT HAS BEGUN FOR EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD MAY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REACH THAT FAR WEST.
A GUSTY EASTERLY WIND INTO THE RGV REMAINS ANTICIPATED FOR AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP
IN THE TYPICAL FASHION. PRESSURE RISES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THE STRONGER
RISES HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
OKLAHOMA AND THE TX PANHANDLE...ALTHOUGH A SECONDARY PUSH WAS ALSO
NOTED OVER SE CO. LATEST RUC SUPPORTS THE WIND DEVELOPMENT AND
TIMING SO EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO INVADE CENTRAL
NM...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE WIND SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER
MIDDAY WITH MIXING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...PUSHING HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE CONTDVD AND PERHAPS
BEYOND.
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 TODAY...AS WELL AS THE NORTH CENTRAL. STEERING FLOW
WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH. DRIER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE RELEGATED TO AREAS WEST OF THE RGV TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE WEST BUT FALL
BELOW AVERAGE EAST. SUB 15 PERCENT MIN RH VALUES WILL BE FOUND ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CRATER IN THE EAST BUT
OVERALL VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD OR BETTER ALL AREAS.
RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST AREAS EXCEPT
THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER. MIN RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY WILL TREND UPWARD AS BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFT
TO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. CELL MOTION WILL BE TO
THE SOUTH BUT RATHER SLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
TO BELOW AVERAGE...CONSEQUENTLY VENTILATION WILL BE REDUCED FOR SOME
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISH EAST THURSDAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS CENTRAL AND WEST. VENTILATION MAY BE FAIR TO EVEN
POOR OVER THE RGV...WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER
WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE MODELS INDICATE IT
WILL BE PARKED INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO LOWER
DAYTIME HUMIDITIES NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL...WITH MORE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT. HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO. WHILE OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES LOOK TO REMAIN GOOD...LATE DAY HUMIDITIES WILL BEGIN TO
FALL BACK INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
604 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
OCCASIONAL GAP WIND INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
AREAS MVFR CIGS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS VALLEY THROUGH
18Z THEN REDEVELOPING AFT 02/03Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING
AND PUSHING IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO SPARK MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AFT 18Z. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
40 KT AND BRIEF TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TO THE WEATHER PATTERN IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY
AS A STOUT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT RACES WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT ONLY BRINGING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO A HEALTHY DOSE OF INCREASED MOISTURE.
GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...MOST NOTABLY
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THROUGH GAPS
AND CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NEW MEXICO. OF
MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD WHERE SOME
STRONG AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA BORDER WITH ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MUCH OF NEW MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE STATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH
EACH SUBSEQUENT DAY WILL LIKELY SEE FEWER STORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE CENTROID OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AZ...LEAVING THE WESTERLIES DISPLACED FROM THE
GREATER SOUTHWEST REGION. STORMS IN SE CO...SW KS...NW OK...AND NW
TX HURLED OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT RACED INTO EASTERN AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL NM. THIS BOUNDARY PRECEDED THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
WHICH IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND WEST...AND LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
JUST ENTERED TAOS...LAS VEGAS...AND CLINES CORNERS AS OF 3 AM.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...INDUCING A GUSTY CANYON/GAP WIND IN MANY FAVORED CENTRAL
AREAS WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW
DAYS...THIS WILL INITIATE AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND TO SOME EXTENT THURSDAY. BOUNDARY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WILL RUN OUT OF MOMENTUM NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE IT COULD BE AN INITIATION POINT FOR
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON EASTERN/UPSLOPE FACES. SOME UPSLOPE WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN FACES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TODAY.
ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF...MORE
INTO THE EVENING...OVER THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS
OF NM AND INTO WEST TX WHERE A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE SETTING UP
AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE ABOVE. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS ON THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO EXTEND
OVER PORTIONS OF CHAVES COUNTY TO ROOSEVELT COUNTY BEFORE
EXTENDING FARTHER EAST INTO TX...HOWEVER THE LOCAL WRF CARRIES
THIS CONVERGENCE FARTHER SOUTH WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT NORTHWARD
CLOSER TO I-40. THE AXIS OF DILITATION FOR THE DEFORMATION ZONE
WOULD BE NEAR THIS LINE WITH BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALSO
ALIGNING NEAR. HAVE PAINTED SOME LIKELY POPS IN THIS SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FORCING
TONIGHT...AND THIS AREA COULD BE ONE OF CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. STORM MOTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM NW TO SE TODAY WITH
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...BUT SOME TRAINING CELLS AND LINEAR
STRUCTURE MAY INTRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE DEFORMATION ZONE
TONGIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL PICK UP SOME MORE STEAM TONIGHT...ADVANCING TOWARD
THE AZ BORDER...AND CONSEQUENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WESTERN ZONES WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY WILL BE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BOTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM...BUT INTO
THE EVENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND GENERAL STORM
PROPAGATIONS TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY ALLOW MANY ADJACENT AREAS TO
SEE RAINFALL TOO. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH MORE IN THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER MORE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
INTO THURSDAY THE SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE THE UPPER HIGH ORBITS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR RECYCLING
THURSDAY...AND MODELS ARE MAKING QUICK USE OF IT WITH MANY ZONES
LIKELY SEEING SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR A DAY-BY-
DAY DRYING AND LESS TO RECYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING AT ARM`S
LENGTH OF NM INTO THE LONG WEEKEND.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE STEERING FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR IDEAL
FOR A TRADITIONAL NORTH-SOUTH FLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NOR FOR
A TRANSIENT SUBTROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE AND STRONG
HEAT FLUX FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA SEEM TO
BE PRIMED TO FUEL NM WITH PLENTY OF MONSOON FUEL ONCE THE STEERING
FLOW ALLOWS.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TRANSITION TO A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT HAS BEGUN FOR EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD MAY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REACH THAT FAR WEST.
A GUSTY EASTERLY WIND INTO THE RGV REMAINS ANTICIPATED FOR AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP
IN THE TYPICAL FASHION. PRESSURE RISES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THE STRONGER
RISES HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
OKLAHOMA AND THE TX PANHANDLE...ALTHOUGH A SECONDARY PUSH WAS ALSO
NOTED OVER SE CO. LATEST RUC SUPPORTS THE WIND DEVELOPMENT AND
TIMING SO EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO INVADE CENTRAL
NM...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE WIND SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER
MIDDAY WITH MIXING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...PUSHING HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE CONTDVD AND PERHAPS
BEYOND.
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 TODAY...AS WELL AS THE NORTH CENTRAL. STEERING FLOW
WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH. DRIER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE RELEGATED TO AREAS WEST OF THE RGV TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE WEST BUT FALL
BELOW AVERAGE EAST. SUB 15 PERCENT MIN RH VALUES WILL BE FOUND ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CRATER IN THE EAST BUT
OVERALL VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD OR BETTER ALL AREAS.
RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST AREAS EXCEPT
THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER. MIN RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY WILL TREND UPWARD AS BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFT
TO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. CELL MOTION WILL BE TO
THE SOUTH BUT RATHER SLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
TO BELOW AVERAGE...CONSEQUENTLY VENTILATION WILL BE REDUCED FOR SOME
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISH EAST THURSDAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS CENTRAL AND WEST. VENTILATION MAY BE FAIR TO EVEN
POOR OVER THE RGV...WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER
WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE MODELS INDICATE IT
WILL BE PARKED INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO LOWER
DAYTIME HUMIDITIES NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL...WITH MORE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT. HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO. WHILE OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES LOOK TO REMAIN GOOD...LATE DAY HUMIDITIES WILL BEGIN TO
FALL BACK INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
341 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TO THE WEATHER PATTERN IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY
AS A STOUT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT RACES WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT ONLY BRINGING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO A HEALTHY DOSE OF INCREASED MOISTURE.
GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...MOST NOTABLY
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THROUGH GAPS
AND CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NEW MEXICO. OF
MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD WHERE SOME
STRONG AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA BORDER WITH ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MUCH OF NEW MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE STATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH
EACH SUBSEQUENT DAY WILL LIKELY SEE FEWER STORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE CENTROID OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AZ...LEAVING THE WESTERLIES DISPLACED FROM THE
GREATER SOUTHWEST REGION. STORMS IN SE CO...SW KS...NW OK...AND NW
TX HURLED OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT RACED INTO EASTERN AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL NM. THIS BOUNDARY PRECEDED THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
WHICH IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND WEST...AND LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
JUST ENTERED TAOS...LAS VEGAS...AND CLINES CORNERS AS OF 3 AM.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...INDUCING A GUSTY CANYON/GAP WIND IN MANY FAVORED CENTRAL
AREAS WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW
DAYS...THIS WILL INITIATE AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND TO SOME EXTENT THURSDAY. BOUNDARY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WILL RUN OUT OF MOMENTUM NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE IT COULD BE AN INITIATION POINT FOR
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON EASTERN/UPSLOPE FACES. SOME UPSLOPE WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN FACES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TODAY.
ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF...MORE
INTO THE EVENING...OVER THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS
OF NM AND INTO WEST TX WHERE A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE SETTING UP
AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE ABOVE. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS ON THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO EXTEND
OVER PORTIONS OF CHAVES COUNTY TO ROOSEVELT COUNTY BEFORE
EXTENDING FARTHER EAST INTO TX...HOWEVER THE LOCAL WRF CARRIES
THIS CONVERGENCE FARTHER SOUTH WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT NORTHWARD
CLOSER TO I-40. THE AXIS OF DILITATION FOR THE DEFORMATION ZONE
WOULD BE NEAR THIS LINE WITH BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALSO
ALIGNING NEAR. HAVE PAINTED SOME LIKELY POPS IN THIS SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FORCING
TONIGHT...AND THIS AREA COULD BE ONE OF CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. STORM MOTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM NW TO SE TODAY WITH
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...BUT SOME TRAINING CELLS AND LINEAR
STRUCTURE MAY INTRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE DEFORMATION ZONE
TONGIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL PICK UP SOME MORE STEAM TONIGHT...ADVANCING TOWARD
THE AZ BORDER...AND CONSEQUENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WESTERN ZONES WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY WILL BE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BOTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM...BUT INTO
THE EVENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND GENERAL STORM
PROPAGATIONS TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY ALLOW MANY ADJACENT AREAS TO
SEE RAINFALL TOO. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH MORE IN THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER MORE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
INTO THURSDAY THE SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE THE UPPER HIGH ORBITS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR RECYCLING
THURSDAY...AND MODELS ARE MAKING QUICK USE OF IT WITH MANY ZONES
LIKELY SEEING SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR A DAY-BY-
DAY DRYING AND LESS TO RECYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING AT ARM`S
LENGTH OF NM INTO THE LONG WEEKEND.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE STEERING FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR IDEAL
FOR A TRADITIONAL NORTH-SOUTH FLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NOR FOR
A TRANSIENT SUBTROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE AND STRONG
HEAT FLUX FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA SEEM TO
BE PRIMED TO FUEL NM WITH PLENTY OF MONSOON FUEL ONCE THE STEERING
FLOW ALLOWS.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TRANSITION TO A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT HAS BEGUN FOR EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD MAY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REACH THAT FAR WEST.
A GUSTY EASTERLY WIND INTO THE RGV REMAINS ANTICIPATED FOR AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP
IN THE TYPICAL FASHION. PRESSURE RISES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THE STRONGER
RISES HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
OKLAHOMA AND THE TX PANHANDLE...ALTHOUGH A SECONDARY PUSH WAS ALSO
NOTED OVER SE CO. LATEST RUC SUPPORTS THE WIND DEVELOPMENT AND
TIMING SO EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO INVADE CENTRAL
NM...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE WIND SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER
MIDDAY WITH MIXING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...PUSHING HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE CONTDVD AND PERHAPS
BEYOND.
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 TODAY...AS WELL AS THE NORTH CENTRAL. STEERING FLOW
WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH. DRIER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE RELEGATED TO AREAS WEST OF THE RGV TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE WEST BUT FALL
BELOW AVERAGE EAST. SUB 15 PERCENT MIN RH VALUES WILL BE FOUND ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CRATER IN THE EAST BUT
OVERALL VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD OR BETTER ALL AREAS.
RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST AREAS EXCEPT
THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER. MIN RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY WILL TREND UPWARD AS BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFT
TO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. CELL MOTION WILL BE TO
THE SOUTH BUT RATHER SLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
TO BELOW AVERAGE...CONSEQUENTLY VENTILATION WILL BE REDUCED FOR SOME
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISH EAST THURSDAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS CENTRAL AND WEST. VENTILATION MAY BE FAIR TO EVEN
POOR OVER THE RGV...WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER
WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE MODELS INDICATE IT
WILL BE PARKED INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO LOWER
DAYTIME HUMIDITIES NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL...WITH MORE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT. HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO. WHILE OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES LOOK TO REMAIN GOOD...LATE DAY HUMIDITIES WILL BEGIN TO
FALL BACK INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
PASSING KSAF AROUND 04Z. THIS FRONT HAS CAUSED WIND SHIFTS AND
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TO TRAVERSE THE STATE. AS THE FRONT SURGES
SOUTH AND WESTWARD OVERNIGHT IT WILL PRODUCE STRONG EASTERLY GAP
WINDS FOR KABQ AND KSAF. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ALSO AT KTCC AND
KROW. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TOWARD
12Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE REGION SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND AN INCREASE IN AVIATION WEATHER THREATS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 95 61 93 62 / 0 5 10 20
DULCE........................... 86 48 86 48 / 5 10 20 40
CUBA............................ 89 51 82 51 / 20 20 40 60
GALLUP.......................... 93 55 89 56 / 5 10 20 30
EL MORRO........................ 87 53 82 53 / 10 20 40 40
GRANTS.......................... 90 59 84 56 / 10 30 40 50
QUEMADO......................... 89 57 85 57 / 20 20 30 40
GLENWOOD........................ 95 57 92 56 / 10 30 40 50
CHAMA........................... 82 43 79 45 / 30 30 40 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 84 58 77 57 / 20 30 40 60
PECOS........................... 77 54 74 55 / 30 50 60 70
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 78 50 77 50 / 30 40 40 50
RED RIVER....................... 68 39 67 39 / 40 50 50 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 72 37 70 37 / 40 50 60 60
TAOS............................ 82 52 78 50 / 20 30 30 50
MORA............................ 72 49 71 50 / 40 50 60 70
ESPANOLA........................ 89 57 83 56 / 20 30 20 50
SANTA FE........................ 83 57 80 57 / 20 30 30 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 85 58 83 58 / 20 30 20 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 87 62 85 63 / 20 30 20 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 89 65 87 66 / 20 30 20 50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 91 60 89 60 / 20 30 20 50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 91 61 89 61 / 20 30 20 50
LOS LUNAS....................... 93 61 89 61 / 20 30 20 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 93 64 88 65 / 20 30 20 50
SOCORRO......................... 95 66 90 66 / 20 30 20 50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 84 53 82 55 / 30 30 50 60
TIJERAS......................... 86 59 82 59 / 30 30 30 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 88 54 81 54 / 30 40 60 60
CLINES CORNERS.................. 78 54 77 56 / 30 60 50 60
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 82 59 82 59 / 20 40 50 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 88 62 87 61 / 30 50 30 40
RUIDOSO......................... 81 54 78 53 / 50 60 60 50
CAPULIN......................... 74 51 73 54 / 20 30 40 40
RATON........................... 77 54 75 56 / 20 30 50 40
SPRINGER........................ 76 53 77 55 / 30 40 50 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 73 51 74 53 / 30 50 50 50
CLAYTON......................... 76 56 79 60 / 20 20 30 40
ROY............................. 73 56 74 58 / 30 40 50 50
CONCHAS......................... 81 62 82 64 / 30 40 50 50
SANTA ROSA...................... 79 60 80 61 / 30 50 50 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 81 61 82 65 / 30 50 50 50
CLOVIS.......................... 81 60 79 61 / 40 60 50 40
PORTALES........................ 84 62 81 64 / 40 60 50 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 82 63 82 65 / 40 60 50 40
ROSWELL......................... 90 68 85 68 / 40 60 30 40
PICACHO......................... 83 63 79 62 / 40 60 40 40
ELK............................. 81 60 76 58 / 50 60 50 40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
912 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS OUR
REGION THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
EARLY FRI.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 912 PM WEDNESDAY...
00Z GSO SOUNDING A LITTLE CONCERNING THIS EVENING...DEPICTING DECENT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/EVENING (JUST SHY OF 7
DEG C/KM). LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS STILL DEPICTS A NARROW AXIS OF
MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE YADKIN RIVER VALLEY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES 2500-3000 J/KG AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.
FINALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR SUGGEST A
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS LIFTING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT DOES.
THUS...EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT OVER THE NW PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE TRIAD REGION. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MILES. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH WIND GUST NEAR 60 MPH OVER OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO PERSIST BUT SHOULD BE OF
LESS INTENSITY AS LOW LEVEL AIR MASS STABILIZES THANKS TO NOCTURNAL
COOLING. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE. -WSS
IN THE MEANTIME...TS ARTHUR WILL BE RECURVING AND PARALLELING THE
COAST...ARRIVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NC COAST THURSDAY EVENING...WHERE
IT WILL MERGE WITH THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AND ACCELERATE
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INITIAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE FRONT IN
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS
FROM TS ARTHUR SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH...WILL BE INCREASING THE INITIAL CHANCE POPS EARLY IN THE WEST
TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON...CONCURRENT WITH INTRODUCTION OF 50-60
PERCENT POPS IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT BY HEAVIER
CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN...BUT HIGHS WILL REACH 90 GIVEN ANY SUN AT
ALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MERGING WITH
ARTHUR THURSDAY NIGHT. ARTHUR WILL THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AS IT
IS PICKED UP BY THE UPPER TROF. AS SUCH...LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED EAST OF I-95 OVERNIGHT...WITH POPS IN THE
WEST TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY MORNING. BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT...INITIAL DRYING IN THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW MINS TO FALL TO
THE MID 60S...WHILE THE EAST WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WITH LINGERING PRECIP
IN THE NORTHEAST TAPERING OFF BY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST...THE WELCOME CHANGE OF AIRMASS
WILL FEATURE NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER...WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE
50S...ALLOWING MINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...AND ACCOMPANYING 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...WILL BUILD ESE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH
SAT...THEN OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SUPPORTED BY AFTERNOON SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
ON AVG...WILL HIGHLIGHT A COMFORTABLE START TO THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S. CALM AND RELATIVE CLEAR IN
THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER NC...WITH
PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1390 METERS...WILL SUPPORT LOWS
SUN MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 50S...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES OR SO IN
URBAN AREAS - LIKELY A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORDS FOR THE DATE (7TH)
OF 53 TO 54 DEGREES.
SUN WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY...IN RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING/
BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS TRENDING BACK UP -
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY...
CENTRAL NC DURING THE SUMMERTIME - HOT AND A SMATTERING OF DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. NC WILL BE IN A TRANSITION ZONE
BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES/SOUTHERN CANADA AND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND GOM. THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY BE
HELD AT BAY OVER THE OH VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH
REGIME AND LEE TROUGHING OVER THE CAROLINAS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND RELATIVELY SPARSE...WITH RELATIVE BETTER
PROBABILITIES (AROUND 30 PERCENT) TUE-WED...WHEN NWP GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE TAIL END OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC FLOW TO OUR NORTH COULD GRAZE
CENTRAL NC. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. LOWS UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 910 PM WEDNESDAY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL NC THIS
EVENING (LOCATED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS) ARE NOW BEGINNING
TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS OUTFLOW HAS SURGED OUT
FROM THE INITIAL CONVECTION... ALLOWING NEW STORMS TO DEVELOPE
EASTWARD. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE/MEDIUM THAT WE WILL SEE THIS
ACTIVITY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL NC. IF IT
INDEED DOES... EXPECT IT WOULD BE IN THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME THIS
EVENING AND WE WOULD HAVE A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFAY AND KRWI DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS OF THURSDAY... THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY LOW TO MEDIUM... AND
MORE IN THE WAY OF FOG. THUS... HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED A TEMPO FOR SUB-
VFR VISBYS (MVFR) AND SCATTERED LOW STRATUS. ELSEWHERE... EXPECT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.... ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRE-
DAWN/NEAR SUNRISE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTH AND COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.
CENTRAL NC WILL GENERALLY BE CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO START THE DAY BECOMING MORE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
(MAYBE MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC).
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THUS... HAVE ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE THREAT
FOR STORMS... WITH ANY STORMS LIKELY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SUB-
VFR CIGS AND VISBYS. FURTHER EAST... WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON... WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KFAY. THUS... HAVE ADDED A
PROB30 GROUP AT KFAY FOR SHOWERS... ALONG WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK: SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFAY
AND KRWI (MAYBE KRDU TOO DEPENDING ON THE TRACK) THURSDAY EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS IT LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA
... OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST... WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 MPH.
HOWEVER... IF THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS TRACK WHERE TO SHIFT FURTHER
WESTWARD THEN AT LEAST KFAY AND KRWI COULD SEE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY EVENING... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS/MLM
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OVER HUDSON BAY. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP OVER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 903 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM A HUDSON BAY LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GRADIENT FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL ALSO GENERATE BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AREAWIDE TODAY. THE WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.
ONLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW FINALLY EXITS INTO
EASTERN CANADA...SHOWERS ENDING AND SKIES CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. DID
REMOVE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG EXCEPT FOR FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE THERE WERE STILL SOME RESTRICTIONS
TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER WESTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LAST
SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND IS CURRENTLY WORKING
THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD 12Z...AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z
TODAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LOCATED OVER CROSBY. BASED ON THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS
LOOP AND SHORTWAVE POSITION...CONCUR WITH THE LATEST HRRR
SKY/CEILING AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST...THAT THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. SHOULD MENTION
THAT THESE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...THE HRRR AND WRF...TRY TO
REDEVELOP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN MONTANA AND NEAR OUR WESTERN
BORDER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE
LIMITING THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE CUMULUS FIELD...FELT THE AREAL
COVERAGE WOULD BE VERY MINIMAL FOR ANY MENTION OF MEASURABLE POPS AT
THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN ADJUST AND ADD SOMETHING IF THIS AREA
GROWS LARGER THAN ANTICIPATED. FARTHER EAST...THE SHOWERS
COMPLETELY EXIT THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 22Z. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 10 MPH TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE THE 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH/COLD POCKET OVERHEAD TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WHERE CLOUDS/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON...TO AROUND 70 IN THE WEST WHERE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL EMERGE. FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT
WINDS AND A CLEARING SKY WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
NORMAL LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. RECORD LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S...BUT NOT EXPECTING TO GET THAT COLD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WEDNESDAY ON A QUIET NOTE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 80S.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP WITH TRANSIENT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO RISE UNDER
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MID TO UPPER 80S) OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. OVERALL IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM WEEKEND...AND
ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT
THE MAJORITY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 01Z
AND CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER KJMS DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER KISN-KMOT-KDIK-KBIS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
HEAVY RAINS FELL OVER THE SOURIS BASIN THIS PAST WEEKEND.
BOTH ALAMEDA DAM AND LAKE DARLING WILL BE STORING A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY THESE STORMS WHILE STILL KEEPING
SOME STORAGE AVAILABLE FOR FUTURE RAINFALL EVENTS. HOWEVER WITH
THE RECENT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN IN
CANADA...RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM WILL INCREASE OVER THE COMING
DAYS AND THUS INCREASING THE RELEASES DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE DARLING.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE SOURIS RIVER TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM
HYDROLOGY...JV/JJS/KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
903 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM A HUDSON BAY LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GRADIENT FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL ALSO GENERATE BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AREAWIDE TODAY. THE WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.
ONLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW FINALLY EXITS INTO
EASTERN CANADA...SHOWERS ENDING AND SKIES CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. DID
REMOVE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG EXCEPT FOR FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE THERE WERE STILL SOME RESTRICTIONS
TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER WESTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LAST
SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND IS CURRENTLY WORKING
THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD 12Z...AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z
TODAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LOCATED OVER CROSBY. BASED ON THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS
LOOP AND SHORTWAVE POSITION...CONCUR WITH THE LATEST HRRR
SKY/CEILING AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST...THAT THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. SHOULD MENTION
THAT THESE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...THE HRRR AND WRF...TRY TO
REDEVELOP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN MONTANA AND NEAR OUR WESTERN
BORDER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE
LIMITING THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE CUMULUS FIELD...FELT THE AREAL
COVERAGE WOULD BE VERY MINIMAL FOR ANY MENTION OF MEASURABLE POPS AT
THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN ADJUST AND ADD SOMETHING IF THIS AREA
GROWS LARGER THAN ANTICIPATED. FARTHER EAST...THE SHOWERS
COMPLETELY EXIT THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 22Z. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 10 MPH TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE THE 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH/COLD POCKET OVERHEAD TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WHERE CLOUDS/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON...TO AROUND 70 IN THE WEST WHERE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL EMERGE. FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT
WINDS AND A CLEARING SKY WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
NORMAL LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. RECORD LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S...BUT NOT EXPECTING TO GET THAT COLD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WEDNESDAY ON A QUIET NOTE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 80S.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP WITH TRANSIENT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO RISE UNDER
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MID TO UPPER 80S) OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. OVERALL IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM WEEKEND...AND
ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT
THE MAJORITY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
MVFR CIGS WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CIGS LIFTING TO VFR AT KISN
BY 13Z...KDIK/KMOT BY 15Z...KBIS AROUND 17Z...AND KJMS BY 22Z
TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20KT TO 30KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10KT BY 02Z
WEDNESDAY. PATCHY FOG/VCFG HAS BEEN ADDED AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AT
KISN/KBIS/KJMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
HEAVY RAINS FELL OVER THE SOURIS BASIN THIS PAST WEEKEND.
BOTH ALAMEDA DAM AND LAKE DARLING WILL BE STORING A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY THESE STORMS WHILE STILL KEEPING
SOME STORAGE AVAILABLE FOR FUTURE RAINFALL EVENTS. HOWEVER WITH
THE RECENT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN IN
CANADA...RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM WILL INCREASE OVER THE COMING
DAYS AND THUS INCREASING THE RELEASES DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE DARLING.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE SOURIS RIVER TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...JV/JJS/KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
640 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW FINALLY EXITS INTO
EASTERN CANADA...SHOWERS ENDING AND SKIES CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. DID
REMOVE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG EXCEPT FOR FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE THERE WERE STILL SOME RESTRICTIONS
TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER WESTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LAST
SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND IS CURRENTLY WORKING
THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD 12Z...AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z
TODAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LOCATED OVER CROSBY. BASED ON THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS
LOOP AND SHORTWAVE POSITION...CONCUR WITH THE LATEST HRRR
SKY/CEILING AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST...THAT THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. SHOULD MENTION
THAT THESE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...THE HRRR AND WRF...TRY TO
REDEVELOP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN MONTANA AND NEAR OUR WESTERN
BORDER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE
LIMITING THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE CUMULUS FIELD...FELT THE AREAL
COVERAGE WOULD BE VERY MINIMAL FOR ANY MENTION OF MEASURABLE POPS AT
THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN ADJUST AND ADD SOMETHING IF THIS AREA
GROWS LARGER THAN ANTICIPATED. FARTHER EAST...THE SHOWERS
COMPLETELY EXIT THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 22Z. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 10 MPH TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE THE 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH/COLD POCKET OVERHEAD TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WHERE CLOUDS/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON...TO AROUND 70 IN THE WEST WHERE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL EMERGE. FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT
WINDS AND A CLEARING SKY WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
NORMAL LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. RECORD LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S...BUT NOT EXPECTING TO GET THAT COLD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WEDNESDAY ON A QUIET NOTE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 80S.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP WITH TRANSIENT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO RISE UNDER
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MID TO UPPER 80S) OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. OVERALL IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM WEEKEND...AND
ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT
THE MAJORITY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
MVFR CIGS WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CIGS LIFTING TO VFR AT KISN
BY 13Z...KDIK/KMOT BY 15Z...KBIS AROUND 17Z...AND KJMS BY 22Z
TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20KT TO 30KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10KT BY 02Z
WEDNESDAY. PATCHY FOG/VCFG HAS BEEN ADDED AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AT
KISN/KBIS/KJMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
HEAVY RAINS FELL OVER THE SOURIS BASIN THIS PAST WEEKEND.
BOTH ALAMEDA DAM AND LAKE DARLING WILL BE STORING A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY THESE STORMS WHILE STILL KEEPING
SOME STORAGE AVAILABLE FOR FUTURE RAINFALL EVENTS. HOWEVER WITH
THE RECENT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN IN
CANADA...RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM WILL INCREASE OVER THE COMING
DAYS AND THUS INCREASING THE RELEASES DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE DARLING.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE SOURIS RIVER TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...JV/JJS/KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER WESTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LAST
SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND IS CURRENTLY WORKING
THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD 12Z...AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z
TODAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LOCATED OVER CROSBY. BASED ON THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS
LOOP AND SHORTWAVE POSITION...CONCUR WITH THE LATEST HRRR
SKY/CEILING AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST...THAT THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. SHOULD MENTION
THAT THESE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...THE HRRR AND WRF...TRY TO
REDEVELOP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN MONTANA AND NEAR OUR WESTERN
BORDER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE
LIMITING THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE CUMULUS FIELD...FELT THE AREAL
COVERAGE WOULD BE VERY MINIMAL FOR ANY MENTION OF MEASURABLE POPS AT
THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN ADJUST AND ADD SOMETHING IF THIS AREA
GROWS LARGER THAN ANTICIPATED. FARTHER EAST...THE SHOWERS
COMPLETELY EXIT THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 22Z. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 10 MPH TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE THE 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH/COLD POCKET OVERHEAD TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WHERE CLOUDS/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON...TO AROUND 70 IN THE WEST WHERE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL EMERGE. FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT
WINDS AND A CLEARING SKY WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
NORMAL LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. RECORD LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S...BUT NOT EXPECTING TO GET THAT COLD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WEDNESDAY ON A QUIET NOTE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 80S.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP WITH TRANSIENT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO RISE UNDER
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MID TO UPPER 80S) OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. OVERALL IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM WEEKEND...AND
ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT
THE MAJORITY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
MVFR CIGS WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE THE TERMINALS
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY...WITH CIGS THINNING AND LIFTING TO VFR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECTING KISN TO
SEE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY 12Z TUESDAY...KMOT/KDIK BY 15Z
TUESDAY...AND KBIS AROUND 18Z. KJMS WILL BE THE LAST AERODROME TO
SEE THE MVFR CIGS LIFT TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 30KT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10KT AFTER
02Z TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
HEAVY RAINS FELL OVER THE SOURIS BASIN THIS PAST WEEKEND.
BOTH ALAMEDA DAM AND LAKE DARLING WILL BE STORING A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY THESE STORMS WHILE STILL KEEPING
SOME STORAGE AVAILABLE FOR FUTURE RAINFALL EVENTS. HOWEVER WITH
THE RECENT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN IN
CANADA...RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM WILL INCREASE OVER THE COMING
DAYS AND THUS INCREASING THE RELEASES DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE DARLING.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE SOURIS RIVER TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...JV/JJS/KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
631 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NUDGED POPS AND SKY COVER BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS WE HAVE
NOT SEEN A MUCH SIGNS OF CU BREAKING THE CAP. MEANWHILE...FRONT
LOOMS TO OUR WEST WITH CONVECTION STILL FIRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NRN KY. HAVE LINEARLY EXTRAPOLATED THIS ACTIVITY INTO
OUR FAR WEST CWA BY ABOUT THE 05Z-06Z TIME FRAME AS WAVE LOCATED
ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP CONVECTION FIRING. THIS AGREES FAIRLY
WELL WITH SOLUTIONS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE DEPICTING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW
OVER NOAM...LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE MAIN DIGGING SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL CARVE OUT THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT...STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL END THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER
ALONG WITH THE STORMS. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY WITH THE AID OF UPSLOPE...LOOK FOR A MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LATER THURSDAY AND ON INTO
THE 4TH OF JULY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WILL REACH TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH LOW HUMIDITIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
80S UNDER SUNSHINE. BY SUNDAY A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES AGAIN...AND A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WITH ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEAT...HUMIDITY...AND A
CHANCE OF STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
10AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO AVIATION FORECAST.
OLD BELOW...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z IN SW
FLOW WITH JUST SOME CU TO CONTEND WITH. ATTENTION TURNS UPSTREAM
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
PROPAGATE INTO SE OH AND N WV LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH STRONG TO PERHAPS SVR STORMS WITH WIND BEING PRIMARY
HAZARD. WILL KEEP VCTS WORDING IN TAFS AT THIS DISTANCE. SOME
QUESTION AS TO EXTENT OF COVERAGE FROM KHTS/KCRW/KBKW/KEKN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/LS
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1112 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE INTERACTION OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL SUPPORT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE STATE. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
NOT BE IMPACTED BY ARTHUR AS IT TRACKS FAR ENOUGH OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL BRING A VERY COMFORTABLE AND DRY 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THREAT WANING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY THIS EVENING...AS
BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES. HOWEVER...THIS REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN A
PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS FROM THE RAP NEAR
4KM SUGGEST ANY REMAINING TSRA COULD BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY. EVENING VISIBLE IMAGERY IMPLIES A
MUCH MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...WHERE JUST A
FEW FLAT CU NOTED AT 00Z. FOR THIS PORTION OF CENTRAL PA...A DRY
NIGHT APPEARS IN STORE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE WARREN CO.
STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY LIES ALONG THE LK ERIE SHORE AND WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE ABOUT TO LIFT NE INTO THE GRT LKS FROM NW
OHIO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCT CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF THIS
BNDRY OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NR 60F OVR
THE NW MTNS...TO THE L70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. CLEARING
SKIES...A NEARLY CALM WIND AND RECENT RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS
SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOCUS THURSDAY SHIFTS TO INTERACTION OF APPROACHING SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT AND ARTHUR...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A
MOD-HVY RAIN/PRE TYPE EVENT. CONCEPTUAL MODEL PLACES HIGHEST RISK
OF PRE/S ALONG LOW LVL THETA RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO FURTHER
WEST...CLOSER TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOCATION OF LOW LVL THETE RIDGE OVR SE PA
FAVORS THE EXTREME PORTION OF THE CWA /LANCASTER CO/ FOR POTENTIAL
PRE EVENT...WHILE ANOTHER RISK AREA COULD BE FURTHER INTO CENTRAL
PA...ALONG SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. NWP MODELS ARE OFTEN POOR WITH
THE PLACEMENT/INTENSITY OF PRE/S...BUT FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HWO ACROSS OUR SE ZONES
THURS/THU NIGHT.
MID LVL SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU THE REGION THURSDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY AFTN. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL GIVEN STRONG LG SCALE FORCING AND
AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SPC SLIGHT RISK OF
SVR EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE
COMBINATION OF MOD-HIGH CAPE AND SIGNIFICANT 0-6KM SHEAR SUPPORTS
AN ORGANIZED SVR WX THREAT. MAY BE TOO FAR NW FOR A PRE TYPE EVENT
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...BUT LEFT SOME
SHOWERS IN ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE AMOUNT OF CLDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SAT...GETTING CONCERN ABOUT HOW MUCH COOL AIR IS ADVECTED SE
ACROSS THE LAKES.
EXPECT A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY.
WENT WITH LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH ON MONDAY...THEN ALL
AREAS FOR TUE INTO WED...AS EC AND OTHER MODELS HINT AT A
WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LCL TSTM IMPACTS WITH SUB-MVFR VISBY RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE
VCNTY KLNS THRU EARLY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL
APPROACH KBFD FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
WELL.
MODEL GUIDANCE FAVOR IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/ST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY THURS...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED MORE OPTIMISTICALLY
/MAINLY MVFR VISBYS/ FOR NOW GIVEN PERSISTENCE AND LOW CONFIDENCE.
LATER ISSUANCE MAY NEED TO ADJUST IF FOG/ST BECOME MORE PREVALENT.
HUMID AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THURS. POTENTIAL REDUCTIONS IN
FOG/HAZE EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS PSBL DURING THE AFTN.
LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDS THU NIGHT WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-EARLY SUN...VFR.
LATE SUN-MON...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
913 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE INTERACTION OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ARTHUR
WILL SUPPORT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...WITH
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE
STATE. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL NOT BE IMPACTED BY ARTHUR
AS IT TRACKS FAR ENOUGH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE
ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BRING A VERY
COMFORTABLE AND DRY 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THREAT WANING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY THIS EVENING...AS
BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES. HOWEVER...THIS REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN A
PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS FROM THE RAP NEAR
4KM SUGGEST ANY REMAINING TSRA COULD BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY. EVENING VISIBLE IMAGERY IMPLIES A
MUCH MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...WHERE JUST A
FEW FLAT CU NOTED AT 00Z. FOR THIS PORTION OF CENTRAL PA...A DRY
NIGHT APPEARS IN STORE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE WARREN CO.
STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY LIES ALONG THE LK ERIE SHORE AND WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE ABOUT TO LIFT NE INTO THE GRT LKS FROM NW
OHIO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCT CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF THIS
BNDRY OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NR 60F OVR
THE NW MTNS...TO THE L70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. CLEARING
SKIES...A NEARLY CALM WIND AND RECENT RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS
SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOCUS THURSDAY SHIFTS TO INTERACTION OF APPROACHING SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT AND ARTHUR...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A
MOD-HVY RAIN/PRE TYPE EVENT. CONCEPTUAL MODEL PLACES HIGHEST RISK
OF PRE/S ALONG LOW LVL THETE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO FURTHER
WEST...CLOSER TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOCATION OF LOW LVL THETE RIDGE OVR SE PA
FAVORS THE EXTREME PORTION OF THE CWA /LANCASTER CO/ FOR POTENTIAL
PRE EVENT...WHILE ANOTHER RISK AREA COULD BE FURTHER INTO CENTRAL
PA...ALONG SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. NWP MODELS ARE OFTEN POOR WITH
THE PLACEMENT/INTENSITY OF PRE/S...BUT FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HWO ACROSS OUR SE ZONES
THURS/THU NIGHT.
MID LVL SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU THE REGION THURSDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY AFTN. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL GIVEN STRONG LG SCALE FORCING AND
AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SPC SLIGHT RISK OF
SVR EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE
COMBINATION OF MOD-HIGH CAPE AND SIGNIFICANT 0-6KM SHEAR SUPPORTS
AN ORGANIZED SVR WX THREAT. MAY BE TOO FAR NW FOR A PRE TYPE EVENT
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...BUT LEFT SOME
SHOWERS IN ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE AMOUNT OF CLDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SAT...GETTING CONCERN ABOUT HOW MUCH COOL AIR IS ADVECTED SE
ACROSS THE LAKES.
EXPECT A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY.
WENT WITH LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH ON MONDAY...THEN ALL
AREAS FOR TUE INTO WED...AS EC AND OTHER MODELS HINT AT A
WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LCL TSTM IMPACTS WITH SUB-MVFR VISBY RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE AFTN/EVE. TSTM CVRG SHOULD DECREASE AFT 00Z GIVEN LOSS OF
SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE IS IN FAVOR OF IFR OR LOWER
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/ST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURS...BUT HAVE
TRENDED TAFS MORE OPTIMISTICALLY /MAINLY MVFR VISBYS/ FOR NOW
GIVEN PERSISTENCE AND LOW CONFIDENCE. LATER ISSUANCE MAY NEED TO
ADJUST IF FOG/ST BECOME MORE PREVALENT. HUMID AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH THU. POTENTIAL REDUCTIONS IN FOG/HAZE EARLY SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO VFR...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS
PSBL DURING THE AFTN.
LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDS THU NIGHT WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
901 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE PASSING TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP A WEAK COLD FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
0100 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION IN
WESTERN CHESTER COUNTY SC.
AS OF 215 PM...IN THE VERY NEAR TERM NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONSENSUS
AMONG THE MODELS IN REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE NCEP CAMS PLUS THE
NAM/RAP ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHILE
OUR LOCAL WRFS AND HRRR ONLY HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT BEST. WITH SBCAPES EXCEEDING 3000J/KG AND LITTLE CIN
NOTED...WILL LEAN TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE SOLUTIONS. SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PIEDMONT. WITH
DCAPES >1000J...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO PLAY OUT
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT BOTH THE GFS/NAM ENHANCE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
LEE TROUGH. THE MODELS SHOW SOME QPF RESPONSE SO WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE TYPE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
ON THU...AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVES OFF THE SC COAST...IT WILL
AS EXPECTED CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH AS WELL.
HENCE..WE EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
EASTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH
THE ARRIVAL THE FRONT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS TO PRODUCE MOST GRID
FIELDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WED...UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA FRI
PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SAT. AT THE
SFC...MILD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WX SYSTEMS FRI...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SLIDING TO NEAR THE VA/NC COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY SAT. EXPECT
DRY BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS FRI...WITH BREEZES POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
FRI NITE...AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FRONT AND APPROACHING HIGH. THERE
COULD EVEN BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRI AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. ANY LINGERING BREEZES WILL DIMINISH
SAT MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SFC HIGH. CANNOT RULE OUT MORNING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN...BUT DRY
FCST WILL CONTINUE. LOWS THU NITE AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. LOWS FRI NITE AND HIGHS SAT WILL DROP TO AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM WED...ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT LINGERS
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE SFC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WEAK FLOW
OUT OF THE SOUTH BOTH DAYS...POSSIBLE SUPPORTING MIN RH IN THE MID
40S. A BLEND OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90
EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION AROUND
H65. THE INVERSION SHOULD PROVIDE A CAP EAST OF THE MTNS...WEAKEST
OVER THE RIDGES. I WILL INDICATE SCHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES DURING
THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROF WILL RIPPLE
ACROSS THE MID WEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO MID LEVEL S/W MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTH
APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...LITTLE TO NO AFTERNOON CIN...AND SLIGHT GREATER WEST
STEERING FLOW MAY SUPPORT HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES...WITH MID
AFTERNOON CHC EAST. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE
TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING ON EVENING CONVECTION GIVEN
CURRENT TRENDS...DESPITE INSTABILITY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW
VFR CLOUD HEIGHTS PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK...WHEN CLOUDS
HEIGHTS LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. NOT ALL GUIDANCE WAS SUPPORTIVE OF
CIGS...BUT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF MVFR CIG AND
FOG AT DAYBREAK. LIGHT S WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THEN BACK TO
ENE ON THURSDAY AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR MOVES UP THE COAST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON
WHETHER ARTHER SENDS BAND OF STABLE AIR THIS FAR INLAND OR NOT.
ELSEWHERE...EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR BET IN THE MOUNTAINS
PER RADAR TRENDS. GUIDANCE GIVES MIXED SIGNALS OF DAYBREAK
RESTRICITONS...BUT BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL
BE CARRIED AT DAWN IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND LIFR CIG WITH MVFR VSBY AT
KAVL. SOUTH WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THEN ON THURSDAY BACK TO E AND
THEN N IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND S TO N AT KAVL...AS TROPICAL SYSTEM
ARTHUR MOVES UP THE COAST. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...UNLESS
ARTHER CAN SEND A BAND OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INLAND. BY LATE
IN THE DAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTIVE CHANCE.
OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEHIND A FRONT AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL RETURN THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MEANS SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
01-07Z 07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z
KCLT HIGH 100% MED 72% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% MED 68% HIGH 97% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 80% HIGH 98% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% MED 69% HIGH 96% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% MED 73% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% MED 65% HIGH 97% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
859 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE PASSING TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP A WEAK COLD FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
0100 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION
IN WESTERN CHESTER COUNTY SC.
AS OF 215 PM...IN THE VERY NEAR TERM NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONSENSUS
AMONG THE MODELS IN REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE NCEP CAMS PLUS THE
NAM/RAP ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHILE
OUR LOCAL WRFS AND HRRR ONLY HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT BEST. WITH SBCAPES EXCEEDING 3000J/KG AND LITTLE CIN
NOTED...WILL LEAN TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE SOLUTIONS. SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PIEDMONT. WITH
DCAPES >1000J...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO PLAY OUT
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT BOTH THE GFS/NAM ENHANCE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
LEE TROUGH. THE MODELS SHOW SOME QPF RESPONSE SO WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE TYPE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
ON THU...AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVES OFF THE SC COAST...IT WILL
AS EXPECTED CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH AS WELL.
HENCE..WE EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
EASTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH
THE ARRIVAL THE FRONT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS TO PRODUCE MOST GRID
FIELDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WED...UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA FRI
PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SAT. AT THE
SFC...MILD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WX SYSTEMS FRI...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SLIDING TO NEAR THE VA/NC COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY SAT. EXPECT
DRY BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS FRI...WITH BREEZES POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
FRI NITE...AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FRONT AND APPROACHING HIGH. THERE
COULD EVEN BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRI AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. ANY LINGERING BREEZES WILL DIMINISH
SAT MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SFC HIGH. CANNOT RULE OUT MORNING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN...BUT DRY
FCST WILL CONTINUE. LOWS THU NITE AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. LOWS FRI NITE AND HIGHS SAT WILL DROP TO AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM WED...ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT LINGERS
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE SFC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WEAK FLOW
OUT OF THE SOUTH BOTH DAYS...POSSIBLE SUPPORTING MIN RH IN THE MID
40S. A BLEND OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90
EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION AROUND
H65. THE INVERSION SHOULD PROVIDE A CAP EAST OF THE MTNS...WEAKEST
OVER THE RIDGES. I WILL INDICATE SCHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES DURING
THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROF WILL RIPPLE
ACROSS THE MID WEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO MID LEVEL S/W MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTH
APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...LITTLE TO NO AFTERNOON CIN...AND SLIGHT GREATER WEST
STEERING FLOW MAY SUPPORT HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES...WITH MID
AFTERNOON CHC EAST. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE
TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING ON EVENING CONVECTION GIVEN
CURRENT TRENDS...DESPITE INSTABILITY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW
VFR CLOUD HEIGHTS PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK...WHEN CLOUDS
HEIGHTS LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. NOT ALL GUIDANCE WAS SUPPORTIVE OF
CIGS...BUT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF MVFR CIG AND
FOG AT DAYBREAK. LIGHT S WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THEN BACK TO
ENE ON THURSDAY AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR MOVES UP THE COAST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON
WHETHER ARTHER SENDS BAND OF STABLE AIR THIS FAR INLAND OR NOT.
ELSEWHERE...EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR BET IN THE MOUNTAINS
PER RADAR TRENDS. GUIDANCE GIVES MIXED SIGNALS OF DAYBREAK
RESTRICITONS...BUT BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL
BE CARRIED AT DAWN IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND LIFR CIG WITH MVFR VSBY AT
KAVL. SOUTH WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THEN ON THURSDAY BACK TO E AND
THEN N IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND S TO N AT KAVL...AS TROPICAL SYSTEM
ARTHUR MOVES UP THE COAST. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...UNLESS
ARTHER CAN SEND A BAND OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INLAND. BY LATE
IN THE DAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTIVE CHANCE.
OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEHIND A FRONT AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL RETURN THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MEANS SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
01-07Z 07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z
KCLT HIGH 100% MED 72% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% MED 68% HIGH 97% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 80% HIGH 98% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% MED 69% HIGH 96% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% MED 73% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% MED 65% HIGH 97% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
832 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE PASSING TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP A WEAK COLD FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
0030 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION MOVING FROM RUTHERFORD COUNTIES
INTO CLEVELAND COUNTY.
AS OF 215 PM...IN THE VERY NEAR TERM NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONSENSUS
AMONG THE MODELS IN REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE NCEP CAMS PLUS THE
NAM/RAP ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHILE
OUR LOCAL WRFS AND HRRR ONLY HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT BEST. WITH SBCAPES EXCEEDING 3000J/KG AND LITTLE CIN
NOTED...WILL LEAN TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE SOLUTIONS. SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PIEDMONT. WITH
DCAPES >1000J...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO PLAY OUT
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT BOTH THE GFS/NAM ENHANCE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
LEE TROUGH. THE MODELS SHOW SOME QPF RESPONSE SO WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE TYPE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
ON THU...AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVES OFF THE SC COAST...IT WILL
AS EXPECTED CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH AS WELL.
HENCE..WE EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
EASTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH
THE ARRIVAL THE FRONT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS TO PRODUCE MOST GRID
FIELDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WED...UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA FRI
PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SAT. AT THE
SFC...MILD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WX SYSTEMS FRI...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SLIDING TO NEAR THE VA/NC COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY SAT. EXPECT
DRY BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS FRI...WITH BREEZES POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
FRI NITE...AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FRONT AND APPROACHING HIGH. THERE
COULD EVEN BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRI AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. ANY LINGERING BREEZES WILL DIMINISH
SAT MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SFC HIGH. CANNOT RULE OUT MORNING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN...BUT DRY
FCST WILL CONTINUE. LOWS THU NITE AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. LOWS FRI NITE AND HIGHS SAT WILL DROP TO AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM WED...ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT LINGERS
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE SFC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WEAK FLOW
OUT OF THE SOUTH BOTH DAYS...POSSIBLE SUPPORTING MIN RH IN THE MID
40S. A BLEND OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90
EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION AROUND
H65. THE INVERSION SHOULD PROVIDE A CAP EAST OF THE MTNS...WEAKEST
OVER THE RIDGES. I WILL INDICATE SCHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES DURING
THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROF WILL RIPPLE
ACROSS THE MID WEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO MID LEVEL S/W MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTH
APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...LITTLE TO NO AFTERNOON CIN...AND SLIGHT GREATER WEST
STEERING FLOW MAY SUPPORT HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES...WITH MID
AFTERNOON CHC EAST. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE
TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING ON EVENING CONVECTION GIVEN
CURRENT TRENDS...DESPITE INSTABILITY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW
VFR CLOUD HEIGHTS PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK...WHEN CLOUDS
HEIGHTS LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. NOT ALL GUIDANCE WAS SUPPORTIVE OF
CIGS...BUT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF MVFR CIG AND
FOG AT DAYBREAK. LIGHT S WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THEN BACK TO
ENE ON THURSDAY AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR MOVES UP THE COAST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON
WHETHER ARTHER SENDS BAND OF STABLE AIR THIS FAR INLAND OR NOT.
ELSEWHERE...EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR BET IN THE MOUNTAINS
PER RADAR TRENDS. GUIDANCE GIVES MIXED SIGNALS OF DAYBREAK
RESTRICITONS...BUT BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL
BE CARRIED AT DAWN IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND LIFR CIG WITH MVFR VSBY AT
KAVL. SOUTH WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THEN ON THURSDAY BACK TO E AND
THEN N IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND S TO N AT KAVL...AS TROPICAL SYSTEM
ARTHUR MOVES UP THE COAST. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...UNLESS
ARTHER CAN SEND A BAND OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INLAND. BY LATE
IN THE DAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTIVE CHANCE.
OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEHIND A FRONT AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL RETURN THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MEANS SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z
KCLT HIGH 100% MED 77% HIGH 93% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% MED 75% HIGH 88% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 82% HIGH 92% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% MED 74% HIGH 90% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% MED 77% HIGH 93% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% MED 74% HIGH 87% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
757 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE PASSING TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP A WEAK COLD FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
0000 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...ACCOUNTING FOR CONVECTION IN MCDOWELL AND RUTHERFORD
COUNTIES.
AS OF 215 PM...IN THE VERY NEAR TERM NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONSENSUS
AMONG THE MODELS IN REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE NCEP CAMS PLUS THE
NAM/RAP ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHILE
OUR LOCAL WRFS AND HRRR ONLY HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT BEST. WITH SBCAPES EXCEEDING 3000J/KG AND LITTLE CIN
NOTED...WILL LEAN TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE SOLUTIONS. SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PIEDMONT. WITH
DCAPES >1000J...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO PLAY OUT
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT BOTH THE GFS/NAM ENHANCE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
LEE TROUGH. THE MODELS SHOW SOME QPF RESPONSE SO WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE TYPE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
ON THU...AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVES OFF THE SC COAST...IT WILL
AS EXPECTED CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH AS WELL.
HENCE..WE EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
EASTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH
THE ARRIVAL THE FRONT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS TO PRODUCE MOST GRID
FIELDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WED...UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA FRI
PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SAT. AT THE
SFC...MILD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WX SYSTEMS FRI...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SLIDING TO NEAR THE VA/NC COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY SAT. EXPECT
DRY BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS FRI...WITH BREEZES POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
FRI NITE...AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FRONT AND APPROACHING HIGH. THERE
COULD EVEN BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRI AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. ANY LINGERING BREEZES WILL DIMINISH
SAT MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SFC HIGH. CANNOT RULE OUT MORNING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN...BUT DRY
FCST WILL CONTINUE. LOWS THU NITE AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. LOWS FRI NITE AND HIGHS SAT WILL DROP TO AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM WED...ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT LINGERS
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE SFC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WEAK FLOW
OUT OF THE SOUTH BOTH DAYS...POSSIBLE SUPPORTING MIN RH IN THE MID
40S. A BLEND OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90
EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION AROUND
H65. THE INVERSION SHOULD PROVIDE A CAP EAST OF THE MTNS...WEAKEST
OVER THE RIDGES. I WILL INDICATE SCHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES DURING
THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROF WILL RIPPLE
ACROSS THE MID WEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO MID LEVEL S/W MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTH
APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...LITTLE TO NO AFTERNOON CIN...AND SLIGHT GREATER WEST
STEERING FLOW MAY SUPPORT HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES...WITH MID
AFTERNOON CHC EAST. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE
TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING ON EVENING CONVECTION GIVEN
CURRENT TRENDS...DESPITE INSTABILITY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW
VFR CLOUD HEIGHTS PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK...WHEN CLOUDS
HEIGHTS LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. NOT ALL GUIDANCE WAS SUPPORTIVE OF
CIGS...BUT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF MVFR CIG AND
FOG AT DAYBREAK. LIGHT S WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THEN BACK TO
ENE ON THURSDAY AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR MOVES UP THE COAST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON
WHETHER ARTHER SENDS BAND OF STABLE AIR THIS FAR INLAND OR NOT.
ELSEWHERE...EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR BET IN THE MOUNTAINS
PER RADAR TRENDS. GUIDANCE GIVES MIXED SIGNALS OF DAYBREAK
RESTRICITONS...BUT BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL
BE CARRIED AT DAWN IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND LIFR CIG WITH MVFR VSBY AT
KAVL. SOUTH WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THEN ON THURSDAY BACK TO E AND
THEN N IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND S TO N AT KAVL...AS TROPICAL SYSTEM
ARTHUR MOVES UP THE COAST. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...UNLESS
ARTHER CAN SEND A BAND OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INLAND. BY LATE
IN THE DAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTIVE CHANCE.
OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEHIND A FRONT AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL RETURN THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MEANS SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z
KCLT HIGH 100% MED 77% HIGH 93% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% MED 75% HIGH 88% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 82% HIGH 92% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% MED 74% HIGH 90% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% MED 77% HIGH 93% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% MED 74% HIGH 87% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
712 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE PASSING TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP A WEAK COLD FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2315 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND POPS ADJUSTED PRE SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...WITH A
RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. WINDS WERE
UPDATED TO BLEND IN THE LATEST NAM MODEL GUIDANCE.
AS OF 215 PM...IN THE VERY NEAR TERM NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONSENSUS
AMONG THE MODELS IN REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE NCEP CAMS PLUS THE
NAM/RAP ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHILE
OUR LOCAL WRFS AND HRRR ONLY HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT BEST. WITH SBCAPES EXCEEDING 3000J/KG AND LITTLE CIN
NOTED...WILL LEAN TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE SOLUTIONS. SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PIEDMONT. WITH
DCAPES >1000J...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO PLAY OUT
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT BOTH THE GFS/NAM ENHANCE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
LEE TROUGH. THE MODELS SHOW SOME QPF RESPONSE SO WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE TYPE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
ON THU...AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVES OFF THE SC COAST...IT WILL
AS EXPECTED CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH AS WELL.
HENCE..WE EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
EASTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH
THE ARRIVAL THE FRONT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS TO PRODUCE MOST GRID
FIELDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WED...UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA FRI
PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SAT. AT THE
SFC...MILD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WX SYSTEMS FRI...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SLIDING TO NEAR THE VA/NC COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY SAT. EXPECT
DRY BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS FRI...WITH BREEZES POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
FRI NITE...AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FRONT AND APPROACHING HIGH. THERE
COULD EVEN BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRI AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. ANY LINGERING BREEZES WILL DIMINISH
SAT MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SFC HIGH. CANNOT RULE OUT MORNING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN...BUT DRY
FCST WILL CONTINUE. LOWS THU NITE AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. LOWS FRI NITE AND HIGHS SAT WILL DROP TO AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM WED...ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT LINGERS
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE SFC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WEAK FLOW
OUT OF THE SOUTH BOTH DAYS...POSSIBLE SUPPORTING MIN RH IN THE MID
40S. A BLEND OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90
EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION AROUND
H65. THE INVERSION SHOULD PROVIDE A CAP EAST OF THE MTNS...WEAKEST
OVER THE RIDGES. I WILL INDICATE SCHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES DURING
THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROF WILL RIPPLE
ACROSS THE MID WEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO MID LEVEL S/W MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTH
APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...LITTLE TO NO AFTERNOON CIN...AND SLIGHT GREATER WEST
STEERING FLOW MAY SUPPORT HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES...WITH MID
AFTERNOON CHC EAST. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE
TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING ON EVENING CONVECTION GIVEN
CURRENT TRENDS...DESPITE INSTABILITY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW
VFR CLOUD HEIGHTS PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK...WHEN CLOUDS
HEIGHTS LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. NOT ALL GUIDANCE WAS SUPPORTIVE OF
CIGS...BUT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF MVFR CIG AND
FOG AT DAYBREAK. LIGHT S WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THEN BACK TO
ENE ON THURSDAY AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR MOVES UP THE COAST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON
WHETHER ARTHER SENDS BAND OF STABLE AIR THIS FAR INLAND OR NOT.
ELSEWHERE...EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR BET IN THE MOUNTAINS
PER RADAR TRENDS. GUIDANCE GIVES MIXED SIGNALS OF DAYBREAK
RESTRICITONS...BUT BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL
BE CARRIED AT DAWN IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND LIFR CIG WITH MVFR VSBY AT
KAVL. SOUTH WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THEN ON THURSDAY BACK TO E AND
THEN N IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND S TO N AT KAVL...AS TROPICAL SYSTEM
ARTHUR MOVES UP THE COAST. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...UNLESS
ARTHER CAN SEND A BAND OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INLAND. BY LATE
IN THE DAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTIVE CHANCE.
OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEHIND A FRONT AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL RETURN THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MEANS SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 85% HIGH 86% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 84% HIGH 88% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 88% HIGH 87% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% MED 79% HIGH 85% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 88% HIGH 88% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 86% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
955 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE CLIMATE SECTION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
COLLEGE STATION HIT 95 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR THAT THE 95 DEGREE THRESHOLD HAS BEEN REACHED. THE LAST TIME
IT WAS 95 DEGREES AT KCLL WAS ON SEPT 25 2013. THE 278 DAY PERIOD
BELOW 95 DEGREES IS THE 21ST LONGEST STRETCH IN CITY HISTORY. THE
LONGEST STRETCH OF DAYS BELOW 95 DEGREES OCCURRED BETWEEN JULY 30
1975 AND JULY 31 1976...OR 368 DAYS.
THE CITY OF HOUSTON REACHED 94 DEGREES TODAY AND HAS NOT YET
REACHED 95 DEGREES SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE CITY OF HOUSTON IS
CURRENTLY AT 279 DAYS BELOW 95 DEGREES WHICH IS THE 54TH LONGEST
STREAK IN CITY HISTORY. THE LONGEST STRETCH OF DAYS BELOW 95
DEGREES WAS 725 DAYS BETWEEN AUG 12 1897 AND AUG 7 1899 (THAT
RECORD IS GOING TO LAST A WHILE). 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BUSY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS STORMS WOULD PULSE TO NEAR
SEVERE LIMITS AND THEN DROP BACK DOWN. SOME LOCATIONS PICKED UP
AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF TRINITY...SAN
JACINTO AND WALKER COUNTIES WITH SOME 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS OVER
WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY...RIGHT AT RUSH HOUR. PEA SIZE HAIL
ACCOMPANIED THE STRONGER STORMS IN HARRIS COUNTY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM TEXARKANA TO BROWNWOOD TO MIDLAND THIS
EVENING. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS EAST
TEXAS. AT 850 MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SE TX WITH
DEEPER 850 MSTR CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE HIGH. A WEAK
850 TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST. AT
700 MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SE TX...SOMEWHAT STACKED
ATOP THE 850 HIGH. MSTR WAS SPARSE AT THIS LEVEL. AT 250 MB...A
WEAK HIGH WAS OVER NE TX WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL LA ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WAS OVER WEST TEXAS.
THE RAP 13 IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING VERY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA WITH RAIN THEN
DEVELOPING IN THE HOUSTON AREA BY 16Z. THE HI-RES ARW WHICH
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL IS HOLDING MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL
18Z. THE 18Z TEXAS TECH IS COMING IN AND IT ALSO FAVORS PRECIP
DURING THE AFTN. ALL OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE WITH
RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY SO HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 50 PERCENT AND
FEEL THIS STILL MIGHT BE TOO LOW. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...
TWEAKED POPS...SKY GRIDS AND HOURLY TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT OBS.
NEW ZONES OUT BY 930 PM. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AT RURAL TERMINALS DURING
PRE-DAWN HOURS...OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED. AT THIS TIME...THIS ACTIVITY IS COVERED BY A VCTS IN TAFS
STARTING AT 17-18Z WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE HIT. I MAY INSERT
PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA BETWEEN 21-23Z IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE
DEPENDING ON THIS EVENINGS MODEL RUNS.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT INLAND TERMINALS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE COAST.
44
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
SEA BREEZE FRONT...EXTENDING FROM NEAR GALENA PARK...TO
MANVEL...TO SWEENY TO GANADO. THESE CELLS WERE VERY SMALL...AND
SHOULD BE GENERALLY PULSE STORMS GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW ABOUT 2000 J OF CAPE. IN ADDITION HAVE A FEW
CELLS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST COUNTIES AS HAVE REACHED
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS IS FOUND ALONG
PORTIONS INTERSTATE 20 FROM NEAR AND WEST OF THE METROPLEX AND
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA...ASSOCATED WITH BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT LIFTING UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
WOULD EXPECT THESE PULSE STORMS TO DROP DOWN BOUNDARIES...LEADING
TO MORE CELLS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN MAINLY DISSIPATING
AFTER SUNSET. LOOKING AT 20 PERCENT COVERAGE AT BEST WITH
THESE...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINNG DRY. ON THURSDAY...BACKDOOR FRONT
SAGS A LITTLE CLOSER GETTING CLOSE TO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND WARRANTS A HIGHER POP FOR THOSE
NORTHEAST ZONES FOR THURDAY AND FRIDAY. FARTHER SOUTH AND
SOUTWHEST...THE SEABREEZE WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MORE
PULSE STORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL GO WITH 40 TO 50
PCT COVERAGE NORTHEAST ZONES...TAPERING DOWN TO 20S IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...BACK DOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AND LESS
OF A FOCUS SO WILL GO BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. 46
MARINE...
THE ONSHORE PORTION OF THE SEA/LANDBREEZE CIRCULATION IS UNDERWAY
WITH WINDS 7-11 KNOTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. BUT RICHER MOISTURE IS OUT THERE
AND HEADED THIS WAY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER SHEAR AXIS
SHIFTS WEST. EXPECTING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WINDS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TOMORROW AND
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SETX/SWLA AND MAY HELP TO TURN
WINDS NORTH OR NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY THEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
RESUMES.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 94 75 92 73 / 10 40 20 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 95 77 93 74 / 10 50 20 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 90 80 88 79 / 10 30 20 40 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
926 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BUSY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS STORMS WOULD PULSE TO NEAR
SEVERE LIMITS AND THEN DROP BACK DOWN. SOME LOCATIONS PICKED UP
AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF TRINITY...SAN
JACINTO AND WALKER COUNTIES WITH SOME 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS OVER
WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY...RIGHT AT RUSH HOUR. PEA SIZE HAIL
ACCOMPANIED THE STRONGER STORMS IN HARRIS COUNTY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM TEXARKANA TO BROWNWOOD TO MIDLAND THIS
EVENING. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS EAST
TEXAS. AT 850 MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SE TX WITH
DEEPER 850 MSTR CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE HIGH. A WEAK
850 TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST. AT
700 MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SE TX...SOMEWHAT STACKED
ATOP THE 850 HIGH. MSTR WAS SPARSE AT THIS LEVEL. AT 250 MB...A
WEAK HIGH WAS OVER NE TX WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL LA ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WAS OVER WEST TEXAS.
THE RAP 13 IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING VERY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA WITH RAIN THEN
DEVELOPING IN THE HOUSTON AREA BY 16Z. THE HI-RES ARW WHICH
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL IS HOLDING MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL
18Z. THE 18Z TEXAS TECH IS COMING IN AND IT ALSO FAVORS PRECIP
DURING THE AFTN. ALL OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE WITH
RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY SO HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 50 PERCENT AND
FEEL THIS STILL MIGHT BE TOO LOW. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...
TWEAKED POPS...SKY GRIDS AND HOURLY TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT OBS.
NEW ZONES OUT BY 930 PM. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AT RURAL TERMINALS DURING
PRE-DAWN HOURS...OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED. AT THIS TIME...THIS ACTIVITY IS COVERED BY A VCTS IN TAFS
STARTING AT 17-18Z WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE HIT. I MAY INSERT
PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA BETWEEN 21-23Z IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE
DEPENDING ON THIS EVENINGS MODEL RUNS.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT INLAND TERMINALS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE COAST.
44
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
SEA BREEZE FRONT...EXTENDING FROM NEAR GALENA PARK...TO
MANVEL...TO SWEENY TO GANADO. THESE CELLS WERE VERY SMALL...AND
SHOULD BE GENERALLY PULSE STORMS GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW ABOUT 2000 J OF CAPE. IN ADDITION HAVE A FEW
CELLS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST COUNTIES AS HAVE REACHED
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS IS FOUND ALONG
PORTIONS INTERSTATE 20 FROM NEAR AND WEST OF THE METROPLEX AND
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA...ASSOCATED WITH BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT LIFTING UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
WOULD EXPECT THESE PULSE STORMS TO DROP DOWN BOUNDARIES...LEADING
TO MORE CELLS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN MAINLY DISSIPATING
AFTER SUNSET. LOOKING AT 20 PERCENT COVERAGE AT BEST WITH
THESE...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINNG DRY. ON THURSDAY...BACKDOOR FRONT
SAGS A LITTLE CLOSER GETTING CLOSE TO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND WARRANTS A HIGHER POP FOR THOSE
NORTHEAST ZONES FOR THURDAY AND FRIDAY. FARTHER SOUTH AND
SOUTWHEST...THE SEABREEZE WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MORE
PULSE STORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL GO WITH 40 TO 50
PCT COVERAGE NORTHEAST ZONES...TAPERING DOWN TO 20S IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...BACK DOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AND LESS
OF A FOCUS SO WILL GO BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. 46
MARINE...
THE ONSHORE PORTION OF THE SEA/LANDBREEZE CIRCULATION IS UNDERWAY
WITH WINDS 7-11 KNOTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. BUT RICHER MOISTURE IS OUT THERE
AND HEADED THIS WAY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER SHEAR AXIS
SHIFTS WEST. EXPECTING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WINDS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TOMORROW AND
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SETX/SWLA AND MAY HELP TO TURN
WINDS NORTH OR NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY THEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
RESUMES.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 94 75 92 73 / 10 40 20 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 95 77 93 74 / 20 50 20 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 90 80 88 79 / 20 30 20 40 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
657 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING KLBB BUT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE AIRPORT WHILE A SECOND AREA OF STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS KCDS
AND IMPACT THEM IN THE NEXT HOUR. EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE A LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT
AT BOTH TERMINALS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR WILL DEVELOP WHEN STORMS ARE MOVING OVER THE AIRPORT.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...
COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT...
MASKED BY OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...
GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PUSHING SOUTH AT A GOOD CLIP AND WILL BE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE WHILE IT APPEARS IN THE 3 AM CDT
SURFACE ANALYSIS THAT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS STILL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE SLOW SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING AND BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE SOUTH AT 850
HPA AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE KLBB 88D VWP
AND VELOCITY PRODUCTS WITH AROUND 50 KTS 200-300 FT AGL. THE RIDGE
HAS SLID BACK TO THE WEST AS SHOWN AT 500 HPA WITH RATHER WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW AT 250 HPA. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BUT HAVE POOR PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...EVEN THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS. THIS POSES SOME
PROBLEMS FOR HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD TODAY AND THE MODELS REFLECT
THIS WITH QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF WHEN
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP. THE NAM HAS A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST
AREA BY 21Z WHILE THE RUC AND SOME EXTENT THE GFS HOLD OFF UNTIL
CLOSER TO 00Z. SURPRISINGLY...THE TTU WRF KEEPS LITTLE TO NO
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND MOST OF THE OF
THE EVENING BEFORE BREAKING OUT STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY WITH AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE
BUT WITH A VERY WEAK SHEAR PROFILE. THERE IS SOME TURNING OF WIND
DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT SO A FEW STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE AND
PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE TOO SPOTTY TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL PLACE A MENTION IN THE
HWO...MAINLY FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS.
ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE VERY MOIST WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA SO SOME WET MICROBURSTS COULD ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
ALL THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST WAS PRETTY MUCH IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAD TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS THIS
MORNING TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND
THEN INCREASING THEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE CHANCE RANGE.
NORTHERN COUNTIES WERE PRETTY MUCH LEFT UNCHANGED SINCE THEY WERE
ALREADY IN THE LIKELY RANGE AND WERE SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED WELL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN
EARLY IN THE DAY WHILE HIGH CLOUD COVER LIMITS INSOLATION IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HANG ON TO LOW 90S FOR NOW ACROSS THAT REGION WHILE
RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS HOLDS TEMPS
DOWN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT
BUT COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS DUE AGAIN TO
RAIN-COOLED AIR AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
UNSETTLED CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ALREADY IN PLACE WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE AND RISING HEIGHTS BY THURSDAY
AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO OUR WEST BEGINS FLEXING ITS MUSCLES.
THEREAFTER THIS HIGH AND ITS ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS ARE PROGGED TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND SUBJECT OUR AREA TO SEASONABLE TEMPS
UNDER A DRY NELY FLOW REGIME.
GREATEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SORTING OUT CONVECTIVE DETAILS WED
AND THU AS MULTIPLE BOUTS OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR AT SOME POINTS
THROUGHOUT THIS TIMEFRAME. TODAY/S COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR
THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED UNTIL IT
LIFTS NORTH ON THURSDAY AND BEGINS DIFFUSING IN THE PROCESS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SHARPEST VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
SUBSEQUENT DEEPER OMEGA ON WEDNESDAY...SO WE/LL KEEP HIGH CHANCE
POPS AREA WIDE BEFORE TAPERING THESE BACK WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONTINUED WEAK STEERING WINDS ALONG WITH RICH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2
INCHES FAVOR HEAVY RAIN AS OUR BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE DAYS
AHEAD...SO THE HWO WILL BE REVISITED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.
EVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE QUITE NOISY WITH CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WE/LL AVOID READING TOO MUCH
INTO SPECIFIC QPF BULLSEYES THIS FAR OUT AND INSTEAD WAIT FOR THE
FINER AND MORE USEFUL DETAILS TO HOPEFULLY EMERGE IN THE TIME
AHEAD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 78 61 80 62 86 / 60 70 50 30 20
TULIA 80 62 79 62 85 / 60 70 50 40 20
PLAINVIEW 82 63 80 62 86 / 50 60 50 40 20
LEVELLAND 86 65 84 63 89 / 50 60 50 30 20
LUBBOCK 87 65 83 64 88 / 50 60 50 40 20
DENVER CITY 88 66 86 65 90 / 40 50 50 30 20
BROWNFIELD 88 67 85 64 90 / 40 50 50 30 20
CHILDRESS 87 67 82 65 87 / 50 60 50 40 30
SPUR 88 68 85 68 89 / 40 50 50 40 20
ASPERMONT 93 71 88 68 90 / 30 50 50 30 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/93/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
417 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...
COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT...
MASKED BY OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...
GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PUSHING SOUTH AT A GOOD CLIP AND WILL BE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE WHILE IT APPEARS IN THE 3 AM CDT
SURFACE ANALYSIS THAT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS STILL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE SLOW SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING AND BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE SOUTH AT 850
HPA AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE KLBB 88D VWP
AND VELOCITY PRODUCTS WITH AROUND 50 KTS 200-300 FT AGL. THE RIDGE
HAS SLID BACK TO THE WEST AS SHOWN AT 500 HPA WITH RATHER WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW AT 250 HPA. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BUT HAVE POOR PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...EVEN THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS. THIS POSES SOME
PROBLEMS FOR HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD TODAY AND THE MODELS REFLECT
THIS WITH QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF WHEN
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP. THE NAM HAS A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST
AREA BY 21Z WHILE THE RUC AND SOME EXTENT THE GFS HOLD OFF UNTIL
CLOSER TO 00Z. SURPRISINGLY...THE TTU WRF KEEPS LITTLE TO NO
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND MOST OF THE OF
THE EVENING BEFORE BREAKING OUT STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY WITH AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE
BUT WITH A VERY WEAK SHEAR PROFILE. THERE IS SOME TURNING OF WIND
DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT SO A FEW STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE AND
PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE TOO SPOTTY TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL PLACE A MENTION IN THE
HWO...MAINLY FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS.
ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE VERY MOIST WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA SO SOME WET MICROBURSTS COULD ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
ALL THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST WAS PRETTY MUCH IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAD TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS THIS
MORNING TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND
THEN INCREASING THEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE CHANCE RANGE.
NORTHERN COUNTIES WERE PRETTY MUCH LEFT UNCHANGED SINCE THEY WERE
ALREADY IN THE LIKELY RANGE AND WERE SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED WELL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN
EARLY IN THE DAY WHILE HIGH CLOUD COVER LIMITS INSOLATION IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HANG ON TO LOW 90S FOR NOW ACROSS THAT REGION WHILE
RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS HOLDS TEMPS
DOWN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT
BUT COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS DUE AGAIN TO
RAIN-COOLED AIR AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
JORDAN
&&
.LONG TERM...
UNSETTLED CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ALREADY IN PLACE WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE AND RISING HEIGHTS BY THURSDAY
AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO OUR WEST BEGINS FLEXING ITS MUSCLES.
THEREAFTER THIS HIGH AND ITS ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS ARE PROGGED TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND SUBJECT OUR AREA TO SEASONABLE TEMPS
UNDER A DRY NELY FLOW REGIME.
GREATEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SORTING OUT CONVECTIVE DETAILS WED
AND THU AS MULTIPLE BOUTS OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR AT SOME POINTS
THROUGHOUT THIS TIMEFRAME. TODAY/S COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR
THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED UNTIL IT
LIFTS NORTH ON THURSDAY AND BEGINS DIFFUSING IN THE PROCESS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SHARPEST VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
SUBSEQUENT DEEPER OMEGA ON WEDNESDAY...SO WE/LL KEEP HIGH CHANCE
POPS AREA WIDE BEFORE TAPERING THESE BACK WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONTINUED WEAK STEERING WINDS ALONG WITH RICH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2
INCHES FAVOR HEAVY RAIN AS OUR BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE DAYS
AHEAD...SO THE HWO WILL BE REVISITED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.
EVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE QUITE NOISY WITH CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WE/LL AVOID READING TOO MUCH
INTO SPECIFIC QPF BULLSEYES THIS FAR OUT AND INSTEAD WAIT FOR THE
FINER AND MORE USEFUL DETAILS TO HOPEFULLY EMERGE IN THE TIME
AHEAD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 78 61 80 62 86 / 60 70 50 30 20
TULIA 80 62 79 62 85 / 60 70 50 40 20
PLAINVIEW 82 63 80 62 86 / 50 60 50 40 20
LEVELLAND 86 65 84 63 89 / 50 60 50 30 20
LUBBOCK 87 65 83 64 88 / 50 60 50 40 20
DENVER CITY 88 66 86 65 90 / 40 50 50 30 20
BROWNFIELD 88 67 85 64 90 / 40 50 50 30 20
CHILDRESS 87 67 82 65 87 / 50 60 50 40 30
SPUR 88 68 85 68 89 / 40 50 50 40 20
ASPERMONT 93 71 88 68 90 / 30 50 50 30 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/93
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
325 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY ON THE EAST SIDE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE FRONT
WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
HURRICANE ARTHER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. DRIER AND COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...
BOTH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE HAVE BEEN MAKING
THEIR WAY EASTWARD WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WE ARE
EXPECTING THE DEVELOPMENT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE AMPLE...PARCELS WILL BE FIGHTING
A WARM NOSE JUST ABOVE 700 MB. HOWEVER...ONCE PENETRATED...THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF CAPE TO WORK WITH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION. CURRENTLY...SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
HAS STARTED JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SAME IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SOON OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH A FOCUS OF ACTIVITY ALONG
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
A CHALLENGE FOR THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER HEADING SOUTH INTO
THE AREA...FOLLOWING THE OUTFLOW DENSITY CURRENT OF ONGOING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. THE 16Z/NOON HRRR MODEL IS OFFERING A
SOLUTION THAT EXPANDS CONVECTION NEAR PA/MD/WV INTO A THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER THAT HEADS QUICKLY SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
IMPACTS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION AROUND SUNSET...AND THEN
CONTINUES SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH 100 AM
WEDNESDAY. CURIOUSLY ENOUGH...THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MODEL
HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH THIS POTENTIAL EVOLUTION BASED UPON
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT THE
OPERATIONAL NAM ALSO GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO THIS SOLUTION...WILL BE
REFLECT THIS EVENT IN OUR FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE AT THIS POINT.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DRAW
CLOSER TO THE AREA AND PROVIDE FOR GREATER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION AS COMPARED TO THE SCENARIO TODAY. SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF BUCKINGHAM COUNTY VA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SPC INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY2
OUTLOOK. VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG HEATING LEADING TO 2000-3000 J/KG
MLCAPE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH STRONGER
UPDRAFTS DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
DECENT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING MODERATE SHEAR AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SUPPORT THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS. THE OTHER
CONCERN IS THAT THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE CLOSE TO A HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN BUCKINGHAM COUNTY. THE COVERAGE IS TOO LIMITED IN AREA
AND TIME FOR ANY HEAT HEADLINES. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY WITH CONVECTION. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
ON THURSDAY...OUR AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A SECOND EJECTING SHORT
WAVE FROM THE MIDWEST TROUGH AND TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVING
NORTHEAST UP CAROLINA COAST. WHILE TROPICAL STORM ITSELF DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY TO GIVE US DIRECT IMPACT BASED ON CURRENT CONSENSUS
TRACKS...THE ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT AND
MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITH
CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY NEED FOR FLASH FLOOD
HEADLINES WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL FORECASTED TO OUR NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...ANY TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING
ISSUES. WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ADJMETBC HIGHS THURSDAY WITH
VALUES FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY...ARTHUR WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
AND BE LOCATED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE BLACKSBURG CWA...BUT WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE PIEDMONT AREAS FOR LINGERING HEAVY
RAINFALL...AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS POINT DESPITE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. NHC TRACK IS CLOSER TO GFS INSTEAD OF THE SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION. IN ANY CASE...HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST UNTIL 06Z
FRIDAY. LEANED LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ADJMAVBC FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE
EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE AS IT
TRACKS NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR THE EAST COAST DURING THE PERIOD.
CONSULT NHC PRODUCTS FOR THE LATEST INFO REGARDING T.S. ARTHUR.
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY AND REACHES THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DECREASED POPS FRIDAY MORNING GOING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PLAYED
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER
80S IN THE EAST. A PLEASANT FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL PRODUCE A DELIGHTFUL SATURDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...SOME RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO HIGHS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
WEST. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.
WITH DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE...MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH READINGS
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE
PIEDMONT ON MONDAY TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE EAST TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. BRIEF...LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE
THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.
TONIGHT...PATCHY MVFR LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN BY
MID- DAY WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE GREATER IN COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COMPARED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
DRAWS CLOSER. LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
HEAVIER CELLS.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE ADVANCING FRONT AND TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS ARE LOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK
OF ARTHUR.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
152 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL
NORTH OF A COASTAL TROPICAL STORM ALSO INCREASES. DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT BY THE START OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT TUESDAY...
REGIONAL RADARS AT THIS POINT IN TIME ARE SHOWING ALL CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INITIATION TIME AROUND 300 PM NEAR THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF ROANOKE AND ALSO ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ISOLATED
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH THE BEST
CONCENTRATION BETWEEN ROUGHLY ROANOKE AND HOT SPRINGS VIRGINIA.
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE WARMED READINGS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...AND FOR THE MOST PART...DID NOT ADJUST AREAS IN THE
MOUNTAINS BY MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER WAY FROM THE EARLIER
FORECAST.
AS OF 950 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THAT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST
TROUGH WEST VIRGINIA...HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THEY ENTER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOCAL WRF-ARW...AND
TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER EXTENT...THE HRRR BOTH SHOWED THIS
TREND...AND ITS OUTPUT CURRENTLY IS ON TRACK. WILL GIVE INCREASED
WEIGHT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE NEXT THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST
WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH THE CONVECTION TRENDING
EASTWARD AS NEW DEVELOPMENT INITIATES ON THE OUTFLOW OF THE PARENT
STORMS.
SPC HAS EXPANDED EASTWARD ITS EXTENT OF THE DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN BEING DAMAGING WINDS
WITH HAIL A NEARLY AS LIKELY SECONDARY POTENTIAL. THE SLIGHT RISK
REGION NOW COVERAGE ALL OF OUR WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND THOSE
VIRGINIA COUNTIES ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 460.
AS OF 705 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FORECAST KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOW THIS
MORNING...THOUGH WATCHING A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION HEADING
SOUTH OF CRW. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW THIS WEAKENING GOING INTO SE WV
THIS MORNING SO LEFT ISOLATED THREAT THERE. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 330 AM...
HAVE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN HIGHER THETA-E ZONE PER LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM THE TRIAD INTO THE VA FOOTHILLS. MODELS KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA THRU THE MORNING. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THOUGH WEAK IS ALSO PICKED UP ON THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE SHIFTING EAST TO THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE.
THE 00Z GFS AND 04Z HRRR SHOWING A MORE REALISTIC VIEW...WITH ECMWF
NOT TOO BAD EITHER. TODAY WILL BE VERY WARM...AND APPEARS THREAT OF
STORMS IS MINIMAL...GIVEN CAP IN PLACE. MODELS BREAK THE CAP BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER THETA-E AND LOW L CONVERGENCE SETTING
UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OF VA. OVERALL KEPT POPS ISOLATED IN MOST
LOCALES WITH SCATTERED/30 POPS IN THE FLOYD/ROANOKE/NRV AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOST LOCATION STAY RAINFREE. ANY STORMS
TODAY WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AGAIN AND WITH PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE...HEAVY RAINERS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES...BUT AGAIN VERY ISOLATED SO NO WATCH WARRANTED. STORM MOTION
PER MODELS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
WATCHING UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES. MODELS SHOW
WEAKENING THIS MORNING AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO WRN OHIO AND SRN
INDIANA. MODELS THEN FIRE CONVECTION UP AGAIN FROM WRN PA SOUTHWEST
TO SRN OHIO/NRN KY BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SLOW IT DOWN AND FADE IT
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT TO OUR NW. AT LEAST WILL KEEP/HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE WV MTNS INTO PORTIONS OF SW VA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...PER LOW LVL THETA-E RIDGING INCREASING AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE LATE.
AS FOR TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HOT...AS THINK SUNSHINE WILL BE ABUNDANT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR GOOD HEATING. THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AGAIN WILL
HELP PREVENT TEMPS FROM SOARING TOO FAR WHILE WINDS STAY MORE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WEST/MTNS...TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT TO REMAIN MUGGY AS TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
MTNS TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO APPROACH THE APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
KICKING OUT THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS WESTERN SLOPES OF
APPALACHIANS BY LATE IN THE DAY. NO DISTINCT SFC FEATURES ALTHOUGH A
WEAK LEE TROUGH IS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON. NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THIS FAR NORTH OF WHERE TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BE BY LATE WED...STILL OFF COAST NEAR
SAVANNAH. VERY WARM LOWER LEVELS...INCREASING DEW PTS INTO LOWER
70S...RESULTS IN SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WHILE LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT ESPECIALLY STEEP...THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MODERATE SHEAR AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AS WELL AS
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR...SHOULD STILL RESULT IN A RISK OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING PRIMARY THREAT.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN WEST CLOSER TO THIS UPPER WAVE AND WHERE
BETTER MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS...BUT WITH WEAK LEE TROUGH POSSIBLE AND HOT
TEMPERATURES...EAST OF BLUE RIDGE LIKELY TO GET INTO THE GAME AT
SOME POINT...MAY BE MORE IN THE EVENING THERE. SPC HAS UPGRADED TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS WELL. IF TEMPS
REACH MID 80S WEST AND MID 90S EAST...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM UPPER 80S WEST TO THE 100-105 RANGE EAST. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT QUICKLY DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FROM WHAT IS IN CURRENT FCST...BUT THIS WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY IN THE WEST. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A HEAT ADV HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT IF THESE FCST HIGHS OF LOWER TO MID
90S ARE REALIZED...BUT RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE SMALL AREAS FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
BY THURSDAY...SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN SECOND EJECTING SHORT WAVE FROM
MIDWEST TROUGH AND PROBABLE TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVING NORTHEAST
UP CAROLINA COAST...MAY HELP WRING OUT MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.
WHILE TROPICAL STORM ITSELF DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO GIVE US DIRECT
IMPACT BASED ON CURRENT CONSENSUS TRACKS...THE ADVECTION OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COULD
PRODUCE ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND
FACT THAT MODELS NOT PRODUCING ESPECIALLY HIGH PRECIP AMTS OVER OUR
REGION MAKES ANY NEED FOR FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE CLOSELY WATCHED OVER NEXT 48
HRS. MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD OVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND
THUS INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL A LITTLE LESS
THURSDAY...BUT AS MENTIONED THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN WED.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY LIFTING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
QUICKLY NORTHEAST OFF NC COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE BLACKSBURG CWA...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
WATCH THE PIEDMONT AREAS FOR LINGERING HEAVY RAINFALL...AT LEAST
INTO THE EVENING. MODERATELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS POINT DESPITE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST...SOUTH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ACCORDING TO CONSENSUS OF CURRENT MODELS...BUT
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THAT TO BE REFINED. THE OTHER WEATHER STORY
WILL THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS COULD DROP AS LOW AS THE UPPER
40S IN OUR FAR NW BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA
WHICH WILL BE A PLEASANT CHANGE FOR THE HUMIDITY AVERSE OUT THERE.
DAYTIME HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BOTH SAT/SUN. WONT LAST TOO LONG AS IT IS JULY AND
RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. BRIEF...LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE
THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.
TONIGHT...PATCHY MVFR LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN BY
MID- DAY WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE GREATER IN COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COMPARED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
DRAWS CLOSER. LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
HEAVIER CELLS.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE ADVANCING FRONT AND TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS ARE LOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK
OF ARTHUR.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW/SK
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL
NORTH OF A COASTAL TROPICAL STORM ALSO INCREASES. DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT BY THE START OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT TUESDAY...
REGIONAL RADARS AT THIS POINT IN TIME ARE SHOWING ALL CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INITIATION TIME AROUND 300 PM NEAR THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF ROANOKE AND ALSO ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ISOLATED
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH THE BEST
CONCENTRATION BETWEEN ROUGHLY ROANOKE AND HOT SPRINGS VIRGINIA.
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE WARMED READINGS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...AND FOR THE MOST PART...DID NOT ADJUST AREAS IN THE
MOUNTAINS BY MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER WAY FROM THE EARLIER
FORECAST.
AS OF 950 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THAT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST
TROUGH WEST VIRGINIA...HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THEY ENTER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOCAL WRF-ARW...AND
TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER EXTENT...THE HRRR BOTH SHOWED THIS
TREND...AND ITS OUTPUT CURRENTLY IS ON TRACK. WILL GIVE INCREASED
WEIGHT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE NEXT THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST
WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH THE CONVECTION TRENDING
EASTWARD AS NEW DEVELOPMENT INITIATES ON THE OUTFLOW OF THE PARENT
STORMS.
SPC HAS EXPANDED EASTWARD ITS EXTENT OF THE DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN BEING DAMAGING WINDS
WITH HAIL A NEARLY AS LIKELY SECONDARY POTENTIAL. THE SLIGHT RISK
REGION NOW COVERAGE ALL OF OUR WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND THOSE
VIRGINIA COUNTIES ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 460.
AS OF 705 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FORECAST KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOW THIS
MORNING...THOUGH WATCHING A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION HEADING
SOUTH OF CRW. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW THIS WEAKENING GOING INTO SE WV
THIS MORNING SO LEFT ISOLATED THREAT THERE. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 330 AM...
HAVE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN HIGHER THETA-E ZONE PER LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM THE TRIAD INTO THE VA FOOTHILLS. MODELS KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA THRU THE MORNING. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THOUGH WEAK IS ALSO PICKED UP ON THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE SHIFTING EAST TO THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE.
THE 00Z GFS AND 04Z HRRR SHOWING A MORE REALISTIC VIEW...WITH ECMWF
NOT TOO BAD EITHER. TODAY WILL BE VERY WARM...AND APPEARS THREAT OF
STORMS IS MINIMAL...GIVEN CAP IN PLACE. MODELS BREAK THE CAP BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER THETA-E AND LOW L CONVERGENCE SETTING
UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OF VA. OVERALL KEPT POPS ISOLATED IN MOST
LOCALES WITH SCATTERED/30 POPS IN THE FLOYD/ROANOKE/NRV AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOST LOCATION STAY RAINFREE. ANY STORMS
TODAY WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AGAIN AND WITH PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE...HEAVY RAINERS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES...BUT AGAIN VERY ISOLATED SO NO WATCH WARRANTED. STORM MOTION
PER MODELS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
WATCHING UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES. MODELS SHOW
WEAKENING THIS MORNING AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO WRN OHIO AND SRN
INDIANA. MODELS THEN FIRE CONVECTION UP AGAIN FROM WRN PA SOUTHWEST
TO SRN OHIO/NRN KY BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SLOW IT DOWN AND FADE IT
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT TO OUR NW. AT LEAST WILL KEEP/HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE WV MTNS INTO PORTIONS OF SW VA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...PER LOW LVL THETA-E RIDGING INCREASING AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE LATE.
AS FOR TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HOT...AS THINK SUNSHINE WILL BE ABUNDANT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR GOOD HEATING. THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AGAIN WILL
HELP PREVENT TEMPS FROM SOARING TOO FAR WHILE WINDS STAY MORE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WEST/MTNS...TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT TO REMAIN MUGGY AS TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
MTNS TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO APPROACH THE APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
KICKING OUT THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS WESTERN SLOPES OF
APPALACHIANS BY LATE IN THE DAY. NO DISTINCT SFC FEATURES ALTHOUGH A
WEAK LEE TROUGH IS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON. NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THIS FAR NORTH OF WHERE TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BE BY LATE WED...STILL OFF COAST NEAR
SAVANNAH. VERY WARM LOWER LEVELS...INCREASING DEW PTS INTO LOWER
70S...RESULTS IN SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WHILE LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT ESPECIALLY STEEP...THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MODERATE SHEAR AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AS WELL AS
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR...SHOULD STILL RESULT IN A RISK OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING PRIMARY THREAT.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN WEST CLOSER TO THIS UPPER WAVE AND WHERE
BETTER MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS...BUT WITH WEAK LEE TROUGH POSSIBLE AND HOT
TEMPERATURES...EAST OF BLUE RIDGE LIKELY TO GET INTO THE GAME AT
SOME POINT...MAY BE MORE IN THE EVENING THERE. SPC HAS UPGRADED TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS WELL. IF TEMPS
REACH MID 80S WEST AND MID 90S EAST...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM UPPER 80S WEST TO THE 100-105 RANGE EAST. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT QUICKLY DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FROM WHAT IS IN CURRENT FCST...BUT THIS WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY IN THE WEST. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A HEAT ADV HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT IF THESE FCST HIGHS OF LOWER TO MID
90S ARE REALIZED...BUT RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE SMALL AREAS FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
BY THURSDAY...SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN SECOND EJECTING SHORT WAVE FROM
MIDWEST TROUGH AND PROBABLE TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVING NORTHEAST
UP CAROLINA COAST...MAY HELP WRING OUT MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.
WHILE TROPICAL STORM ITSELF DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO GIVE US DIRECT
IMPACT BASED ON CURRENT CONSENSUS TRACKS...THE ADVECTION OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COULD
PRODUCE ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND
FACT THAT MODELS NOT PRODUCING ESPECIALLY HIGH PRECIP AMTS OVER OUR
REGION MAKES ANY NEED FOR FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE CLOSELY WATCHED OVER NEXT 48
HRS. MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD OVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND
THUS INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL A LITTLE LESS
THURSDAY...BUT AS MENTIONED THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN WED.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY LIFTING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
QUICKLY NORTHEAST OFF NC COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE BLACKSBURG CWA...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
WATCH THE PIEDMONT AREAS FOR LINGERING HEAVY RAINFALL...AT LEAST
INTO THE EVENING. MODERATELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS POINT DESPITE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST...SOUTH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ACCORDING TO CONSENSUS OF CURRENT MODELS...BUT
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THAT TO BE REFINED. THE OTHER WEATHER STORY
WILL THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS COULD DROP AS LOW AS THE UPPER
40S IN OUR FAR NW BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA
WHICH WILL BE A PLEASANT CHANGE FOR THE HUMIDITY AVERSE OUT THERE.
DAYTIME HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BOTH SAT/SUN. WONT LAST TOO LONG AS IT IS JULY AND
RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FOG/LOW CIGS THIS MORNING AT BCB/LWB WILL ERODE TO SCATTERED OR
BKN VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING. NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION SOUTH
OF CRW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT HEADS EAST TOWARD LWB/BLF...PER
HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS...THOUGH ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR BLF FOR MVFR
FROM 13-14Z.
WILL SEE SCT-BKN CU OFF AND ON THROUGH THE DAY WITH CIRRUS ALOFT
DUE TO BLOWOFF FROM UPSTREAM STORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA DOES NOT LOOK STRONG TODAY BUT MODELS
OVERALL PAINTING SOME NEAR BCB/ROA IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE VCSH
FOR NOW THERE. THUNDER HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE FAR WEST...THOUGH
LACK OF WEDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE THUNDER IN THE AREA TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. MODELS SHOW THE COLD
FRONT SLOWING DOWN ALONG THE PIEDMONT DUE TO A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BOOT THE COLD FRONT AND TROPICAL LOW AWAY TO BRING A
DRIER AIR MASS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW/SK
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...RCS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
956 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL
NORTH OF A COASTAL TROPICAL STORM ALSO INCREASES. DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT BY THE START OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THAT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST
TROUGH WEST VIRGINIA...HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THEY ENTER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOCAL WRF-ARW...AND
TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER EXTENT...THE HRRR BOTH SHOWED THIS
TREND...AND ITS OUTPUT CURRENTLY IS ON TRACK. WILL GIVE INCREASED
WEIGHT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE NEXT THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST
WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH THE CONVECTION TRENDING
EASTWARD AS NEW DEVELOPMENT INITIATES ON THE OUTFLOW OF THE PARENT
STORMS.
SPC HAS EXPANDED EASTWARD ITS EXTENT OF THE DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN BEING DAMAGING WINDS
WITH HAIL A NEARLY AS LIKELY SECONDARY POTENTIAL. THE SLIGHT RISK
REGION NOW COVERAGE ALL OF OUR WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND THOSE
VIRGINIA COUNTIES ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 460.
AS OF 705 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FORECAST KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOW THIS
MORNING...THOUGH WATCHING A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION HEADING
SOUTH OF CRW. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW THIS WEAKENING GOING INTO SE WV
THIS MORNING SO LEFT ISOLATED THREAT THERE. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 330 AM...
HAVE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN HIGHER THETA-E ZONE PER LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM THE TRIAD INTO THE VA FOOTHILLS. MODELS KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA THRU THE MORNING. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THOUGH WEAK IS ALSO PICKED UP ON THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE SHIFTING EAST TO THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE.
THE 00Z GFS AND 04Z HRRR SHOWING A MORE REALISTIC VIEW...WITH ECMWF
NOT TOO BAD EITHER. TODAY WILL BE VERY WARM...AND APPEARS THREAT OF
STORMS IS MINIMAL...GIVEN CAP IN PLACE. MODELS BREAK THE CAP BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER THETA-E AND LOW L CONVERGENCE SETTING
UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OF VA. OVERALL KEPT POPS ISOLATED IN MOST
LOCALES WITH SCATTERED/30 POPS IN THE FLOYD/ROANOKE/NRV AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOST LOCATION STAY RAINFREE. ANY STORMS
TODAY WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AGAIN AND WITH PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE...HEAVY RAINERS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES...BUT AGAIN VERY ISOLATED SO NO WATCH WARRANTED. STORM MOTION
PER MODELS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
WATCHING UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES. MODELS SHOW
WEAKENING THIS MORNING AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO WRN OHIO AND SRN
INDIANA. MODELS THEN FIRE CONVECTION UP AGAIN FROM WRN PA SOUTHWEST
TO SRN OHIO/NRN KY BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SLOW IT DOWN AND FADE IT
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT TO OUR NW. AT LEAST WILL KEEP/HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE WV MTNS INTO PORTIONS OF SW VA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...PER LOW LVL THETA-E RIDGING INCREASING AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE LATE.
AS FOR TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HOT...AS THINK SUNSHINE WILL BE ABUNDANT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR GOOD HEATING. THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AGAIN WILL
HELP PREVENT TEMPS FROM SOARING TOO FAR WHILE WINDS STAY MORE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WEST/MTNS...TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT TO REMAIN MUGGY AS TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
MTNS TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO APPROACH THE APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
KICKING OUT THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS WESTERN SLOPES OF
APPALACHIANS BY LATE IN THE DAY. NO DISTINCT SFC FEATURES ALTHOUGH A
WEAK LEE TROUGH IS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON. NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THIS FAR NORTH OF WHERE TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BE BY LATE WED...STILL OFF COAST NEAR
SAVANNAH. VERY WARM LOWER LEVELS...INCREASING DEW PTS INTO LOWER
70S...RESULTS IN SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WHILE LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT ESPECIALLY STEEP...THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MODERATE SHEAR AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AS WELL AS
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR...SHOULD STILL RESULT IN A RISK OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING PRIMARY THREAT.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN WEST CLOSER TO THIS UPPER WAVE AND WHERE
BETTER MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS...BUT WITH WEAK LEE TROUGH POSSIBLE AND HOT
TEMPERATURES...EAST OF BLUE RIDGE LIKELY TO GET INTO THE GAME AT
SOME POINT...MAY BE MORE IN THE EVENING THERE. SPC HAS UPGRADED TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS WELL. IF TEMPS
REACH MID 80S WEST AND MID 90S EAST...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM UPPER 80S WEST TO THE 100-105 RANGE EAST. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT QUICKLY DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FROM WHAT IS IN CURRENT FCST...BUT THIS WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY IN THE WEST. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A HEAT ADV HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT IF THESE FCST HIGHS OF LOWER TO MID
90S ARE REALIZED...BUT RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE SMALL AREAS FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
BY THURSDAY...SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN SECOND EJECTING SHORT WAVE FROM
MIDWEST TROUGH AND PROBABLE TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVING NORTHEAST
UP CAROLINA COAST...MAY HELP WRING OUT MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.
WHILE TROPICAL STORM ITSELF DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO GIVE US DIRECT
IMPACT BASED ON CURRENT CONSENSUS TRACKS...THE ADVECTION OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COULD
PRODUCE ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND
FACT THAT MODELS NOT PRODUCING ESPECIALLY HIGH PRECIP AMTS OVER OUR
REGION MAKES ANY NEED FOR FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE CLOSELY WATCHED OVER NEXT 48
HRS. MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD OVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND
THUS INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL A LITTLE LESS
THURSDAY...BUT AS MENTIONED THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN WED.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY LIFTING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
QUICKLY NORTHEAST OFF NC COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE BLACKSBURG CWA...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
WATCH THE PIEDMONT AREAS FOR LINGERING HEAVY RAINFALL...AT LEAST
INTO THE EVENING. MODERATELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS POINT DESPITE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST...SOUTH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ACCORDING TO CONSENSUS OF CURRENT MODELS...BUT
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THAT TO BE REFINED. THE OTHER WEATHER STORY
WILL THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS COULD DROP AS LOW AS THE UPPER
40S IN OUR FAR NW BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA
WHICH WILL BE A PLEASANT CHANGE FOR THE HUMIDITY AVERSE OUT THERE.
DAYTIME HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BOTH SAT/SUN. WONT LAST TOO LONG AS IT IS JULY AND
RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FOG/LOW CIGS THIS MORNING AT BCB/LWB WILL ERODE TO SCATTERED OR
BKN VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING. NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION SOUTH
OF CRW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT HEADS EAST TOWARD LWB/BLF...PER
HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS...THOUGH ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR BLF FOR MVFR
FROM 13-14Z.
WILL SEE SCT-BKN CU OFF AND ON THROUGH THE DAY WITH CIRRUS ALOFT
DUE TO BLOWOFF FROM UPSTREAM STORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA DOES NOT LOOK STRONG TODAY BUT MODELS
OVERALL PAINTING SOME NEAR BCB/ROA IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE VCSH
FOR NOW THERE. THUNDER HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE FAR WEST...THOUGH
LACK OF WEDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE THUNDER IN THE AREA TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. MODELS SHOW THE COLD
FRONT SLOWING DOWN ALONG THE PIEDMONT DUE TO A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BOOT THE COLD FRONT AND TROPICAL LOW AWAY TO BRING A
DRIER AIR MASS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW/SK
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...RCS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
743 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL
NORTH OF A COASTAL TROPICAL STORM ALSO INCREASES. DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT BY THE START OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 705 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FORECAST KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOW THIS
MORNING...THOUGH WATCHING A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION HEADING
SOUTH OF CRW. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW THIS WEAKENING GOING INTO SE WV
THIS MORNING SO LEFT ISOLATED THREAT THERE. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 330 AM...
HAVE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN HIGHER THETA-E ZONE PER LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM THE TRIAD INTO THE VA FOOTHILLS. MODELS KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA THRU THE MORNING. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THOUGH WEAK IS ALSO PICKED UP ON THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE SHIFTING EAST TO THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE.
THE 00Z GFS AND 04Z HRRR SHOWING A MORE REALISTIC VIEW...WITH ECMWF
NOT TOO BAD EITHER. TODAY WILL BE VERY WARM...AND APPEARS THREAT OF
STORMS IS MINIMAL...GIVEN CAP IN PLACE. MODELS BREAK THE CAP BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER THETA-E AND LOW L CONVERGENCE SETTING
UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OF VA. OVERALL KEPT POPS ISOLATED IN MOST
LOCALES WITH SCATTERED/30 POPS IN THE FLOYD/ROANOKE/NRV AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOST LOCATION STAY RAINFREE. ANY STORMS
TODAY WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AGAIN AND WITH PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE...HEAVY RAINERS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES...BUT AGAIN VERY ISOLATED SO NO WATCH WARRANTED. STORM MOTION
PER MODELS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
WATCHING UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES. MODELS SHOW
WEAKENING THIS MORNING AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO WRN OHIO AND SRN
INDIANA. MODELS THEN FIRE CONVECTION UP AGAIN FROM WRN PA SOUTHWEST
TO SRN OHIO/NRN KY BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SLOW IT DOWN AND FADE IT
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT TO OUR NW. AT LEAST WILL KEEP/HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE WV MTNS INTO PORTIONS OF SW VA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...PER LOW LVL THETA-E RIDGING INCREASING AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE LATE.
AS FOR TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HOT...AS THINK SUNSHINE WILL BE ABUNDANT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR GOOD HEATING. THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AGAIN WILL
HELP PREVENT TEMPS FROM SOARING TOO FAR WHILE WINDS STAY MORE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WEST/MTNS...TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT TO REMAIN MUGGY AS TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
MTNS TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO APPROACH THE APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
KICKING OUT THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS WESTERN SLOPES OF
APPALACHIANS BY LATE IN THE DAY. NO DISTINCT SFC FEATURES ALTHOUGH A
WEAK LEE TROUGH IS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON. NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THIS FAR NORTH OF WHERE TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BE BY LATE WED...STILL OFF COAST NEAR
SAVANNAH. VERY WARM LOWER LEVELS...INCREASING DEW PTS INTO LOWER
70S...RESULTS IN SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WHILE LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT ESPECIALLY STEEP...THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MODERATE SHEAR AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AS WELL AS
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR...SHOULD STILL RESULT IN A RISK OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING PRIMARY THREAT.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN WEST CLOSER TO THIS UPPER WAVE AND WHERE
BETTER MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS...BUT WITH WEAK LEE TROUGH POSSIBLE AND HOT
TEMPERATURES...EAST OF BLUE RIDGE LIKELY TO GET INTO THE GAME AT
SOME POINT...MAY BE MORE IN THE EVENING THERE. SPC HAS UPGRADED TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS WELL. IF TEMPS
REACH MID 80S WEST AND MID 90S EAST...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM UPPER 80S WEST TO THE 100-105 RANGE EAST. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT QUICKLY DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FROM WHAT IS IN CURRENT FCST...BUT THIS WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY IN THE WEST. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A HEAT ADV HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT IF THESE FCST HIGHS OF LOWER TO MID
90S ARE REALIZED...BUT RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE SMALL AREAS FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
BY THURSDAY...SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN SECOND EJECTING SHORT WAVE FROM
MIDWEST TROUGH AND PROBABLE TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVING NORTHEAST
UP CAROLINA COAST...MAY HELP WRING OUT MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.
WHILE TROPICAL STORM ITSELF DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO GIVE US DIRECT
IMPACT BASED ON CURRENT CONSENSUS TRACKS...THE ADVECTION OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COULD
PRODUCE ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND
FACT THAT MODELS NOT PRODUCING ESPECIALLY HIGH PRECIP AMTS OVER OUR
REGION MAKES ANY NEED FOR FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE CLOSELY WATCHED OVER NEXT 48
HRS. MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD OVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND
THUS INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL A LITTLE LESS
THURSDAY...BUT AS MENTIONED THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN WED.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY LIFTING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
QUICKLY NORTHEAST OFF NC COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE BLACKSBURG CWA...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
WATCH THE PIEDMONT AREAS FOR LINGERING HEAVY RAINFALL...AT LEAST
INTO THE EVENING. MODERATELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS POINT DESPITE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST...SOUTH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ACCORDING TO CONSENSUS OF CURRENT MODELS...BUT
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THAT TO BE REFINED. THE OTHER WEATHER STORY
WILL THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS COULD DROP AS LOW AS THE UPPER
40S IN OUR FAR NW BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA
WHICH WILL BE A PLEASANT CHANGE FOR THE HUMIDITY AVERSE OUT THERE.
DAYTIME HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BOTH SAT/SUN. WONT LAST TOO LONG AS IT IS JULY AND
RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FOG/LOW CIGS THIS MORNING AT BCB/LWB WILL ERODE TO SCATTERED OR
BKN VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING. NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION SOUTH
OF CRW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT HEADS EAST TOWARD LWB/BLF...PER
HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS...THOUGH ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR BLF FOR MVFR
FROM 13-14Z.
WILL SEE SCT-BKN CU OFF AND ON THROUGH THE DAY WITH CIRRUS ALOFT
DUE TO BLOWOFF FROM UPSTREAM STORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA DOES NOT LOOK STRONG TODAY BUT MODELS
OVERALL PAINTING SOME NEAR BCB/ROA IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE VCSH
FOR NOW THERE. THUNDER HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE FAR WEST...THOUGH
LACK OF WEDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE THUNDER IN THE AREA TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. MODELS SHOW THE COLD
FRONT SLOWING DOWN ALONG THE PIEDMONT DUE TO A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BOOT THE COLD FRONT AND TROPICAL LOW AWAY TO BRING A
DRIER AIR MASS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW/SK
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...RCS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
343 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL
NORTH OF A COASTAL TROPICAL STORM ALSO INCREASES. DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT BY THE START OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT TUESDAY...
HAVE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN HIGHER THETA-E ZONE PER LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM THE TRIAD INTO THE VA FOOTHILLS. MODELS KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA THRU THE MORNING. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THOUGH WEAK IS ALSO PICKED UP ON THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE SHIFTING EAST TO THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE.
THE 00Z GFS AND 04Z HRRR SHOWING A MORE REALISTIC VIEW...WITH ECMWF
NOT TOO BAD EITHER. TODAY WILL BE VERY WARM...AND APPEARS THREAT OF
STORMS IS MINIMAL...GIVEN CAP IN PLACE. MODELS BREAK THE CAP BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER THETA-E AND LOW L CONVERGENCE SETTING
UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OF VA. OVERALL KEPT POPS ISOLATED IN MOST
LOCALES WITH SCATTERED/30 POPS IN THE FLOYD/ROANOKE/NRV AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOST LOCATION STAY RAINFREE. ANY STORMS
TODAY WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AGAIN AND WITH PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE...HEAVY RAINERS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES...BUT AGAIN VERY ISOLATED SO NO WATCH WARRANTED. STORM MOTION
PER MODELS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
WATCHING UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES. MODELS SHOW
WEAKENING THIS MORNING AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO WRN OHIO AND SRN
INDIANA. MODELS THEN FIRE CONVECTION UP AGAIN FROM WRN PA SOUTHWEST
TO SRN OHIO/NRN KY BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SLOW IT DOWN AND FADE IT
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT TO OUR NW. AT LEAST WILL KEEP/HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE WV MTNS INTO PORTIONS OF SW VA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...PER LOW LVL THETA-E RIDGING INCREASING AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE LATE.
AS FOR TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HOT...AS THINK SUNSHINE WILL BE ABUNDANT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR GOOD HEATING. THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AGAIN WILL
HELP PREVENT TEMPS FROM SOARING TOO FAR WHILE WINDS STAY MORE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WEST/MTNS...TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT TO REMAIN MUGGY AS TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
MTNS TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO APPROACH THE APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
KICKING OUT THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS WESTERN SLOPES OF
APPALACHIANS BY LATE IN THE DAY. NO DISTINCT SFC FEATURES ALTHOUGH A
WEAK LEE TROUGH IS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON. NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THIS FAR NORTH OF WHERE TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BE BY LATE WED...STILL OFF COAST NEAR
SAVANNAH. VERY WARM LOWER LEVELS...INCREASING DEW PTS INTO LOWER
70S...RESULTS IN SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WHILE LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT ESPECIALLY STEEP...THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MODERATE SHEAR AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AS WELL AS
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR...SHOULD STILL RESULT IN A RISK OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING PRIMARY THREAT.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN WEST CLOSER TO THIS UPPER WAVE AND WHERE
BETTER MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS...BUT WITH WEAK LEE TROUGH POSSIBLE AND HOT
TEMPERATURES...EAST OF BLUE RIDGE LIKELY TO GET INTO THE GAME AT
SOME POINT...MAY BE MORE IN THE EVENING THERE. SPC HAS UPGRADED TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS WELL. IF TEMPS
REACH MID 80S WEST AND MID 90S EAST...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM UPPER 80S WEST TO THE 100-105 RANGE EAST. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT QUICKLY DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FROM WHAT IS IN CURRENT FCST...BUT THIS WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY IN THE WEST. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A HEAT ADV HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT IF THESE FCST HIGHS OF LOWER TO MID
90S ARE REALIZED...BUT RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE SMALL AREAS FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
BY THURSDAY...SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN SECOND EJECTING SHORT WAVE FROM
MIDWEST TROUGH AND PROBABLE TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVING NORTHEAST
UP CAROLINA COAST...MAY HELP WRING OUT MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.
WHILE TROPICAL STORM ITSELF DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO GIVE US DIRECT
IMPACT BASED ON CURRENT CONSENSUS TRACKS...THE ADVECTION OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COULD
PRODUCE ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND
FACT THAT MODELS NOT PRODUCING ESPECIALLY HIGH PRECIP AMTS OVER OUR
REGION MAKES ANY NEED FOR FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE CLOSELY WATCHED OVER NEXT 48
HRS. MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD OVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND
THUS INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL A LITTLE LESS
THURSDAY...BUT AS MENTIONED THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN WED.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY LIFTING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
QUICKLY NORTHEAST OFF NC COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE BLACKSBURG CWA...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
WATCH THE PIEDMONT AREAS FOR LINGERING HEAVY RAINFALL...AT LEAST
INTO THE EVENING. MODERATELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS POINT DESPITE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST...SOUTH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ACCORDING TO CONSENSUS OF CURRENT MODELS...BUT
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THAT TO BE REFINED. THE OTHER WEATHER STORY
WILL THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS COULD DROP AS LOW AS THE UPPER
40S IN OUR FAR NW BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA
WHICH WILL BE A PLEASANT CHANGE FOR THE HUMIDITY AVERSE OUT THERE.
DAYTIME HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BOTH SAT/SUN. WONT LAST TOO LONG AS IT IS JULY AND
RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...
HAVE BKN VFR CIGS AT KDAN/KBCB/KROA AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME IN THE
FORM OF AC/SC. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DOTTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF VA
BUT NOT SEEING ANY THREAT TO TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.
FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AT PLACES WHERE IT RAINED...AND ALREADY
SEEING THIS AT LWB. TAKING LWB DOWN TO LIFR BY 09Z...AS DO NOT SEE
ANY UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER THAT WILL HINDER DENSE FOG FORMATION.
THINK THE CLOUD COVER IN THE BCB/ROA AREA WILL KEEP FOG FROM
BECOMING AN ISSUE...BUT DO HAVE BCB COMING DOWN TO 5SM BY 09Z.
FOG AND VFR CIGS DISPERSE SOME LATER THIS MORNING BUT WILL SEE
SCT-BKN CU OFF AND ON THROUGH THE DAY WITH CIRRUS ALOFT DUE TO
BLOWOFF FROM UPSTREAM STORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA DOES NOT LOOK STRONG TODAY BUT MODELS
OVERALL PAINTING SOME NEAR BCB/ROA IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE VCSH
FOR NOW THERE. THUNDER HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE FAR WEST...THOUGH
LACK OF WEDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE THUNDER IN THE AREA TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. MODELS SHOW THE COLD
FRONT SLOWING DOWN ALONG THE PIEDMONT DUE TO A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BOOT THE COLD FRONT AND TROPICAL LOW AWAY TO BRING A
DRIER AIR MASS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW/SK
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...RCS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
135 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE
MORE WARM AND HUMID AIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DEPARTING BY THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EDT MONDAY...
ISOLATED -SHRA HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF SE WV AND NW NC WITHIN A
CONVERGENCE ZONE. HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AND THEN NEW ACTIVITY OF A SIMILAR VARIETY WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN WV...THEN DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS.
NONE OF THIS APPEARS TO BE PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT.
THUS...MODIFIED POPS ACCORDINGLY...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 700 PM EDT MONDAY...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED FAIRLY EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH ONLY SOME VERY SMALL SHOWERS NOTED JUST NORTH OF
GREENBRIER COUNTY...BUT WELL NORTH OF THE GREENBRIER RESORT AREA.
OTHER POPUP LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED BETWEEN BCB...SIF...HLX. WHILE
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD POP UP -SHRA/SHRA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...DOWNWARD POP TRENDS ADVERTISED TO BELOW 15 PERCENT LOOK
GOOD...AND IN FACT APPEARS MAY OCCUR EVEN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.
CG LIGHTNING HAS BEEN FEW...FAR BETWEEN TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
CAPPED AND ESSENTIALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. T/TD ON TRACK...WITH AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN A TAD COOLER THAN OTHERWISE ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL
TREND TOWARD THE MEAN AS THE AIR MIXES OUT. OTHER THAN LOWER POPS
FOR THE NEXT FEW OURS...NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE WEAK COOL WEDGE IS KEEPING INSTABILITY IN CHECK ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN CWA.
DUE TO A FAIRLY HUMID AIR MASS OVERHEAD...HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
THREAT IF THE STORMS TRAIN. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
LIMITED WITH THE WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT A WET MICROBURST IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR ANY STRONG STORM THAT MAY DEVELOP WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THESE THREATS WILL CONTINUED TO BE ADVERTISED
IN THE HWO.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET FROM LOSS OF
SOLAR HEATING. THE MODELS DEPICT DRY WEATHER AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SUBTLE SIGNS OF SKIES CLEARING IN THE WEST.
HOWEVER...THE WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAINFALL MAY PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN AWAY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED ON TUESDAY...AS THE
CWA EXPERIENCES MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NOT
PUSHED ALL THE WAY TOWARD THE HOTTER MAV GUIDANCE...DUE TO
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND ANOTHER THREAT FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...AS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT AND
DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY...WE REMAIN SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT
CONVERGENCE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROF AS WELL AS AN INFLUX OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GREATER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE AS CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED OVER 2000 J/KG EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPS COULD BE VERY WARM
WITH THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER OUR REGION. CONTINUED THE TREND OF
PREVIOUS FORECASTS USING A GFS/NAM BLEND FOR HIGHS.
LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP. THERE ARE SOME
SIGNALS FOR A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT (PRE)TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...WITH A
LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
LOW AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. FINALLY...BACKING
OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WAS NOTED BY BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF IN THE
FAR EAST WHICH IS ANOTHER SIGN FOR A POTENTIAL PRE...BUT AS OF
THIS WRITING PARAMETERS ARE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SREF PLUMES AT LYNCHBURG INDICATE MOST
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 1.00 INCHES...BUT A
FEW MEMBERS ARE FORECASTING 1-2 INCHES. A CLOSE EYE WILL HAVE TO
KEPT ON THIS.
AS FOR TEMPS...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND TRIMMED HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
THURSDAY WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...
MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE EAST COAST. AT THIS POINT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN EURO AND GFS AS TO TRACK AND
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO INTENSITY. GFS MUCH WEAKER WITH TRACK
SLIGHTLY INLAND VERSUS EURO. EARLY (12Z) CYCLE TRACK AND INTENSITY
GUIDANCE FROM NHC SHOWS FAIRLY DECENT CLUSTERING OF MODELS ALONG OR
JUST INLAND OF THE NC COAST WITH A TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
EFFECTS ON LOCAL WEATHER REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR BUT HAVE KEPT
LIKELY POPS OVER OUR EASTERN PIEDMONT DIMINISHING WESTWARD TO SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS SECTION...THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ACCORDING TO CONSENSUS OF CURRENT MODELS...BUT PLENTY OF TIME FOR
THAT TO BE REFINED. THE OTHER WEATHER STORY WILL THE SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY OVER THE
WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS COULD DROP AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S IN OUR FAR
NW BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA WHICH WILL BE A
PLEASANT CHANGE FOR THE HUMIDITY AVERSE OUT THERE. DAYTIME HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BOTH
SAT/SUN. WONT LAST TOO LONG AS IT IS JULY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POPS
BACK IN THE FORECAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...
HAVE BKN VFR CIGS AT KDAN/KBCB/KROA AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME IN THE
FORM OF AC/SC. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DOTTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF VA
BUT NOT SEEING ANY THREAT TO TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.
FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AT PLACES WHERE IT RAINED...AND ALREADY
SEEING THIS AT LWB. TAKING LWB DOWN TO LIFR BY 09Z...AS DO NOT SEE
ANY UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER THAT WILL HINDER DENSE FOG FORMATION.
THINK THE CLOUD COVER IN THE BCB/ROA AREA WILL KEEP FOG FROM
BECOMING AN ISSUE...BUT DO HAVE BCB COMING DOWN TO 5SM BY 09Z.
FOG AND VFR CIGS DISPERSE SOME LATER THIS MORNING BUT WILL SEE
SCT-BKN CU OFF AND ON THROUGH THE DAY WITH CIRRUS ALOFT DUE TO
BLOWOFF FROM UPSTREAM STORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA DOES NOT LOOK STRONG TODAY BUT MODELS
OVERALL PAINTING SOME NEAR BCB/ROA IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE VCSH
FOR NOW THERE. THUNDER HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE FAR WEST...THOUGH
LACK OF WEDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE THUNDER IN THE AREA TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. MODELS SHOW THE COLD
FRONT SLOWING DOWN ALONG THE PIEDMONT DUE TO A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BOOT THE COLD FRONT AND TROPICAL LOW AWAY TO BRING A
DRIER AIR MASS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW/RAB
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...RCS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
821 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT PRODUCED A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES EARLIER TODAY HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
SPREAD LOW MARINE CLOUDS INTO THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...TAKING UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY TO CLEAR. AN
UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM....MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO SKY AND TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY WITH THE EVENING FORECAST UPDATE. AS EXPECTED...CONVECTION
REMAINED EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. THE STRATO-CUMULUS
OFFSHORE HAS BEEN THINNING AND SPREADING OUT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AND SHOULD
LIFT THE CLOUD BASES SOME. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH
FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME MID-AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY REMAIN DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE. THE MORNING
CLOUDS...ONSHORE WINDS AND THE NEAR BY UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING INTO THE 80S...BUT STILL THINK THE INLAND
VALLEYS WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA
OFF THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BELIEVE THE COVERAGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE A BIT LESS ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY AS WELL. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF A LITTLE MOISTURE BRUSHING THE NORTH COAST AREAS MAINLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS ON HAS NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT. TJ/TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FINAL IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NE PAC ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MAY
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUN BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON
THE TIMING AND JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE WILL SEE...BUT IT LOOKS
TO BE LIGHT AT BEST. THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST BY EARLY MON...ALLOWING SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDING TO BUILD
OVER THE PAC NW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING SOME
WARMING ALONG WITH A RETURN TO A TYPICAL PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS
GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...NOT MANY CHANGES EXPECTED FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. A
SOLID STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH OVER THE COAST BUT SHOULD
ARRIVE AT KAST SHORTLY AND CLOSER TO 06Z FOR KONP. LOOKS LIKE A
COMBINATION ADVECTION/RADIATION DEVELOPMENT REGIME FOR THE INLAND
TERMINALS WITH MVFR DEVELOPMENT TO GO BROKEN AT OR SHORTLY AFTER
10Z. AM ESTIMATING BURNOFFS TO BE MAINLY AROUND 19Z THU INLAND AND
23Z OR LATER ALONG THE COAST.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. INCREASING CHANCE
OF MVFR STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY OCCURRING AROUND 11Z.
EXPECT AN UNSEASONABLY SLOW BURN OFF WITH THE DECK PROBABLY GOING
SCATTERED AROUND 19Z. IF THIS ESTIMATE IS WRONG THEN MOST LIKELY
WOULD OCCUR LATER. /JBONK
&&
.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF MARINE PROBLEMS THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. LIGHT NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. N-NW
FLOW MAY PICK UP TO 15-20 KT NEAR SHORE BY THU/FRI AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH PRES OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENING INLAND. WITH
ONLY WEAK ACTIVITY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...W-NW SWELL SHOULD BE
SLIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAGLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
723 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated thunderstorms will range across the Inland Northwest
tonight as a weak weather disturbance passes through. Thursday
will be slightly cooler and locally breezy but essentially dry and
sunny. A stretch of dry and warm summer weather will envelope the
region from Friday through early next week with occasional high
clouds and the possibility of a few mountain showers and
thunderstorms during the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update to remove showers and storms west of a line from
Republic to Coulee City to Quincy. Water Vapor indicates a
midlevel dry slot has punched across the Cascades with visible
satellite indicating mostly clear skies at this hour. Still quite
a bit of convective instability ahead of this line with showers
and storms continue to fire across northern Oregon...some which
will track into southern Grant/Adams counties within the next few
hours. Some light echoes remain along an upper-level front from NE
WA to the Palouse but this is generally only dropping some
sprinkles so also removed thunder in these areas until after 11PM.
Latest HRRR and other Hi-Res models indicate the main show
overnight will be across SE WA and the lower ID Panhandle
associated with the heavier T-storm activity between Ukiah and
Bend in central Oregon. This will take some time to make its track
northward and shouldn`t be as strong as the current radar
indicates but should bring the "ripple" or convectively driven
vort max in the midlevels which will track into our already
established moist and unstable environment supporting the idea of
continued unsettled weather through the overnight periods. Brief
heavy rain and lightning strikes will be the main concern but
winds between 30-40 mph will also be possible without a strong
nocturnal inversion developing. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A highly meridional mid level front will slowly
translate across the forecast area between 00Z and 18Z Thursday.
The air mass is unstable and moist in the mid levels with a dry
near surface layer. Isolated to Scattered thunderstorms will occur
along this front as it moves through KMWH between 00Z and 03Z and
the KGEG area TAF sites and KPUW and KMWH from 03Z to 15Z
Thursday. the front has already passed through KEAT and clearing
after sunset is expected there. Storms will be high based with
light precipitation under the cores. VFR conditions are expected
at all TAF sites except in the cores of stronger storms...which
will be very isolated and brief if passing over any particular TAF
site. After 18Z Thursday very dry air will promote mostly clear
skies at all TAF sites. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 63 85 56 84 60 84 / 20 10 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 62 84 53 83 55 82 / 30 20 10 0 0 10
Pullman 58 83 50 84 55 82 / 40 20 10 0 0 10
Lewiston 68 93 59 93 64 94 / 40 20 10 0 0 10
Colville 59 86 53 83 55 83 / 20 20 10 0 10 10
Sandpoint 57 82 49 81 50 80 / 30 30 10 0 10 10
Kellogg 60 82 53 83 54 80 / 40 30 10 10 10 10
Moses Lake 64 92 57 90 62 92 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 66 87 61 89 64 90 / 10 0 0 0 0 10
Omak 60 91 55 89 59 91 / 10 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
500 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE ON
THE FOURTH OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRAZE THE
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 04Z HRRR DISPLAYED
CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SPC WRF INDICATED LESS
COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL
HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT...BUT
RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUPPORT HIGHER POPS IN THE EXTREME EAST
PART. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WE
USED THE HOTTER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF
MIXING TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. USED THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD
GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DOWNSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND
APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT AND EXPECT
FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AND ALLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 10 TO
30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY.
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CENTRAL MS RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER THE SC MIDLANDS SO HAVE ADDED VCSH TO THE CAE AND CUB
TAFS UNTIL 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 5 KNOTS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO NORTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON
AT AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 TO 18 KNOTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING
MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR DAYBREAK AT OGB/AGS. WIND MAY INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
457 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE ON
THE FOURTH OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRAZE THE
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 04Z HRRR DISPLAYED
CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SPC WRF INDICATED LESS
COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL
HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT...BUT
RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUPPORT HIGHER POPS IN THE EXTREME EAST
PART. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WE
USED THE HOTTER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF
MIXING TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. USED THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD
GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DOWNSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND
APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT AND EXPECT
FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AND ALLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 10 TO
30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY.
TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CENTRAL MS
RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 4 TO 5 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
NORTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 TO 18
KNOTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR DAYBREAK AT
OGB/AGS. WIND MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
443 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
DOMINATE ON THE FOURTH OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
GRAZE THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 04Z HRRR
DISPLAYED CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EXTREME EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SPC WRF INDICATED
LESS COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM
WILL HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE.
THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT...BUT
RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUPPORT HIGHER POPS IN THE EXTREME EAST
PART. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WE
USED THE HOTTER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF
MIXING TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. USED THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD
GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DOWNSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND
APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT AND EXPECT
FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AND ALLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 10 TO
30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY.
TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CENTRAL MS
RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 4 TO 5 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
NORTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 TO 18
KNOTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR DAYBREAK AT
OGB/AGS. WIND MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1137 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TONIGHT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ROCKIES TO SPREAD INTO OUR AREA AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT PERSISTENT
AREA OF WAA ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH IS SEEMINGLY ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A FEW AREAS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE RAP INDICATED
SOME ELEVATED CAPE/WEAK CINH IN THIS AREA...LAST FEW RUNS HAVE
INCREASED INHIBITION GREATLY SO CONFIDENCE IN OVERNIGHT
DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014
LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN
FEATURE OVER THE PLAINS WHICH LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE A SECOND WEAKER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND
600J/KG...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BEFORE MID
EVENING.
TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA AND BRING
HIGHER MIXING RATIOS UP FROM THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT.
THURSDAY THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...LEADING TO RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS. MIXING
RATIOS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW. DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON A FAIRLY WEAK 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 2000J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO BORDER AND LITTLE TO NO CINH...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DISAGREE WHERE EXACTLY THE TROUGH WILL
TRACK...BUT GENERALLY HAVE IT NORTH OF HWY 24. STORM MOVEMENT IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH...SO STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
JUST AHEAD OF IT AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE A DRY LINE WILL MOVE TO JUST WEST OF KIT CARSON AND
CHEYENNE COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP/FOLLOW THE DRY LINE AS IT MOVES EAST. DUE TO THE SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT OF ONLY 10KTS OR SO...ANY STORMS THAT BUILD OFF THE DRY
LINE WILL NOT MOVE INTO KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE DUE TO 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS AND SURFACE CAPE OF
2000J/KG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY
25. LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
STORMS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF AN INCH WILL ALLOW HEAVY RAINFALL TO
BE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014
A HOT WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE TRI-STATE REGION AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THERE WILL BE
A FEW CHANCES FOR STORMS...NOTABLY TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
OTHER THAN THESE TWO BETTER CHANCES...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
COMPARED TO THIS RECENT MONTH OF JUNE.
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT...STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD
SLOWLY MOVE EAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO MAY MAKE IT INTO EAST COLORADO BEFORE DISSIPATING. DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND MAY KEEP
CONVECTION GOING ALL NIGHT SIMILAR TO RECENT EVENTS. THE NOSE OF THE
JET WILL BE LOCATED ROUGH ALONG TO JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FROM
COLBY TO HILL CITY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ELEVATED
STORMS WILL RESIDE. WITH MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG...A FEW STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT.
ON FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR YET AGAIN ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF
8-9 C/KM. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS WEAKER...ON THE ORDER OF 20-30
KTS...ON FRIDAY SO STORMS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE. STORMS SHOULD
BE MORE OF THE PULSE VARIETY AND DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN BELOW
CLOUD LEVEL...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR DOWNBURSTS. IN ADDITION...
LARGE HAIL IS A THREAT WITH THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND...
LEADING TO A VERY HOT AND DRY FORECAST. WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE FORECAST BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A
FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS POPPED UP. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN EAST COLORADO SATURDAY BUT OTHER THAN THIS SLIM
CHANCE...THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY THIS WEEKEND.
ONE LAST HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
TOUGH AND COLD FRONT BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND FORCE IT BACK WEST.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
HARD TO PINPOINT RIGHT NOW...ESPECIALLY WHEN BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE
AROUND THE LINGERING FRONT AND MODELS DIFFER ON THEIR FRONTAL
POSITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW PERIODS
OF 5000-8000 FT CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INCREASING
IN COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD
AREA AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 22 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE
CHANCE FOR STORMS REMAINS TOMORROW EVENING...PROBABILITY TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
349 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
FOUR CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...DAILY
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THESE STORMS
WILL GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCARS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY...BUT THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN TRUDGING DOWN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAS BEEN WELL-HANDLED BY THE HRRR THIS MORNING. BEST GUESS IS THAT
IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND
SUNRISE.
AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...IT SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE THAN WEDNESDAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS WORKED OVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND THERE IS LESS CLOUD DEBRIS TO
START OFF THE DAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PUT THE THETA-E AXIS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND THE END OF THE 06Z HRRR RUN
SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. FOR THESE
REASONS...HAVE SHIFTED POPS A BIT NORTHWESTWARD. WITH THE HIGH
CENTER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWESTWARD...BUT VERY SLOWLY. THUS...ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.
ON FRIDAY...THETA-E AXIS GENERALLY FAVORS AN AREA FROM WEST CENTRAL
NM ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND NE NM. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
HIGH WILL GENERALLY BE SQUARE ACROSS THE STATE. VERY LITTLE STEERING
FLOW EXISTS...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE GUIDED MORE BY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT NORTHWARD...WHICH
MEANS THE STEERING FLOW WILL CHANGE TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...AND PERHAPS ALMOST DUE WESTWARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STEER ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
AWAY FROM NM...THUS...WITH NO REAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD A BIT.
LOOKS LIKE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP INTO WESTERN NM ON
MONDAY...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS. THIS SHOULD SPREAD
SOMEWHAT INTO CENTRAL NM BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL BE LIMITED...IF NOT SHUT DOWN
ALTOGETHER...TUES/WED. THIS IS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE HIGH AND COMES BACK WESTWARD
OVER TEXAS.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CONVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE RGV AS OF THIS WRITING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SEEP WESTWARD TOWARDS THE ARIZONA BORDER...AND
24 HR DEW POINT CHANGES RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 DEGREES FROM KGNT WEST AND
NORTHWESTWARD.
THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH FRIDAY...WHERE HIGHEST POPS FORECAST.
DEW POINTS REMAIN FORECAST TO MIX OUT SOMEWHAT NORTHWEST AND FAR
WEST CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...AND TREND STILL ON TRACK FOR
ADDITIONAL DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS CENTRAL AND WEST FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH
THE H5 HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER ERN AZ...STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE A
SLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DRIFT...WHILE FRIDAY COULD SEE RATHER SLOW
AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN BOTH DAYS.
HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH A SLOW
CLIMB TO MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT TREND TOWARDS FAIR BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU. LATE DAY HUMIDITIES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT WON/T FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT MOST
LOCALES. HAINES FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO EVEN POOR SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL TODAY...AND FROM THE WEST CENTRAL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
FRIDAY.
FORECAST MODELS WOBBLE THE UPPER HIGH CENTER AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH FAVORS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH
CENTER MAY ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE FLOW OVER THE NRN US
WEAKENS...BUT FEATURES WHICH WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT FOR NEW MEXICO ARE
NOT DEFINED WELL ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD -TSRA/-SHARA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS ACROSS
NW...N CENTRAL AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER A
BRIEF BREAK EARLY THU MORNING...LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN TS COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTN AND INTO THE NIGHT AS A WAVE IN THE EASTERLIES
CROSSING NW MEXICO PUMPS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO NM. SCT TO
NMRS CONVECTION SHOULD FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SPOTTIER ACTIVITY FARTHER E. WET MICROBURSTS
ARE EXPECTED WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT FM STRONGER CELLS.
OTHERWISE...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SW SFC
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING. THE STRONGER DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THIS FLOW SHOULD HELP BURN OFF THE LOW CLOUDS FAIRLY
EARLY THU MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 93 61 92 62 / 20 20 20 10
DULCE........................... 85 49 88 47 / 40 40 30 30
CUBA............................ 84 54 87 54 / 50 40 40 40
GALLUP.......................... 88 57 87 56 / 50 40 30 30
EL MORRO........................ 81 53 80 54 / 50 40 50 40
GRANTS.......................... 85 55 85 55 / 50 40 40 40
QUEMADO......................... 83 56 83 57 / 40 40 40 40
GLENWOOD........................ 90 58 91 55 / 40 40 20 30
CHAMA........................... 81 46 80 46 / 60 40 50 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 81 58 82 62 / 50 40 50 40
PECOS........................... 78 56 79 58 / 50 40 40 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 79 50 79 52 / 50 40 40 40
RED RIVER....................... 72 44 73 46 / 60 50 60 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 74 43 76 43 / 60 50 50 50
TAOS............................ 83 52 83 51 / 50 40 40 30
MORA............................ 77 53 78 54 / 50 40 50 50
ESPANOLA........................ 86 57 88 58 / 40 40 30 30
SANTA FE........................ 83 57 83 61 / 50 40 30 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 86 58 87 59 / 40 30 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 87 65 88 66 / 40 30 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 88 67 90 68 / 30 30 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 90 64 91 65 / 20 30 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 89 65 90 67 / 30 30 20 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 91 62 92 61 / 20 30 20 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 90 64 92 66 / 30 30 20 30
SOCORRO......................... 91 67 94 68 / 20 30 10 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 85 57 86 61 / 50 40 30 30
TIJERAS......................... 86 58 87 61 / 50 40 30 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 82 56 83 56 / 40 40 30 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 80 56 82 58 / 40 40 30 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 82 59 84 61 / 30 30 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 83 62 85 63 / 20 20 20 20
RUIDOSO......................... 79 56 80 56 / 30 30 20 20
CAPULIN......................... 79 56 80 58 / 50 40 30 30
RATON........................... 83 55 85 58 / 40 30 30 30
SPRINGER........................ 85 56 86 57 / 20 30 30 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 79 55 83 56 / 30 30 40 30
CLAYTON......................... 85 63 90 63 / 20 30 20 30
ROY............................. 81 60 84 61 / 20 30 20 30
CONCHAS......................... 87 67 91 66 / 20 30 20 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 84 63 88 64 / 20 30 20 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 88 66 93 66 / 10 20 5 20
CLOVIS.......................... 83 62 88 61 / 10 10 5 10
PORTALES........................ 86 63 90 62 / 10 10 5 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 85 65 89 65 / 10 20 5 20
ROSWELL......................... 89 66 92 67 / 10 10 5 10
PICACHO......................... 82 61 86 61 / 10 20 5 10
ELK............................. 78 58 81 60 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
127 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS OUR
REGION THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
EARLY FRI.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 912 PM WEDNESDAY...
00Z GSO SOUNDING A LITTLE CONCERNING THIS EVENING...DEPICTING DECENT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/EVENING (JUST SHY OF 7
DEG C/KM). LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS STILL DEPICTS A NARROW AXIS OF
MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE YADKIN RIVER VALLEY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES 2500-3000 J/KG AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.
FINALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR SUGGEST A
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS LIFTING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT DOES.
THUS...EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT OVER THE NW PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE TRIAD REGION. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MILES. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH WIND GUST NEAR 60 MPH OVER OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO PERSIST BUT SHOULD BE OF
LESS INTENSITY AS LOW LEVEL AIR MASS STABILIZES THANKS TO NOCTURNAL
COOLING. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE. -WSS
IN THE MEANTIME...TS ARTHUR WILL BE RECURVING AND PARALLELING THE
COAST...ARRIVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NC COAST THURSDAY EVENING...WHERE
IT WILL MERGE WITH THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AND ACCELERATE
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INITIAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE FRONT IN
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS
FROM TS ARTHUR SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH...WILL BE INCREASING THE INITIAL CHANCE POPS EARLY IN THE WEST
TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON...CONCURRENT WITH INTRODUCTION OF 50-60
PERCENT POPS IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT BY HEAVIER
CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN...BUT HIGHS WILL REACH 90 GIVEN ANY SUN AT
ALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MERGING WITH
ARTHUR THURSDAY NIGHT. ARTHUR WILL THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AS IT
IS PICKED UP BY THE UPPER TROF. AS SUCH...LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED EAST OF I-95 OVERNIGHT...WITH POPS IN THE
WEST TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY MORNING. BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT...INITIAL DRYING IN THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW MINS TO FALL TO
THE MID 60S...WHILE THE EAST WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WITH LINGERING PRECIP
IN THE NORTHEAST TAPERING OFF BY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST...THE WELCOME CHANGE OF AIRMASS
WILL FEATURE NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER...WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE
50S...ALLOWING MINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...AND ACCOMPANYING 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...WILL BUILD ESE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH
SAT...THEN OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SUPPORTED BY AFTERNOON SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
ON AVG...WILL HIGHLIGHT A COMFORTABLE START TO THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S. CALM AND RELATIVE CLEAR IN
THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER NC...WITH
PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1390 METERS...WILL SUPPORT LOWS
SUN MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 50S...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES OR SO IN
URBAN AREAS - LIKELY A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORDS FOR THE DATE (7TH)
OF 53 TO 54 DEGREES.
SUN WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY...IN RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING/
BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS TRENDING BACK UP -
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY...
CENTRAL NC DURING THE SUMMERTIME - HOT AND A SMATTERING OF DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. NC WILL BE IN A TRANSITION ZONE
BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES/SOUTHERN CANADA AND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND GOM. THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY BE
HELD AT BAY OVER THE OH VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH
REGIME AND LEE TROUGHING OVER THE CAROLINAS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND RELATIVELY SPARSE...WITH RELATIVE BETTER
PROBABILITIES (AROUND 30 PERCENT) TUE-WED...WHEN NWP GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE TAIL END OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC FLOW TO OUR NORTH COULD GRAZE
CENTRAL NC. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. LOWS UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE PRETTY ACTIVE AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ARTHUR MOVES UP THE
CAROLINA COAST WITH RAINBANDS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. FIRST AND FOREMOST...WATCHING A LINE OF STORMS THAT HAS
FORMED IN SOUTHERN VA WITH DEVELOPMENT BACK TOWARDS THE TRIAD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS STORMS WILL NOT AFFECT THIS AREA BUT THERE ARE
STILL MANY ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES FAVORABLE FOR SOME ACTIVITY
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME
BUT MAY HAVE TO AMEND LATER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
QUIET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS. MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOW STRATUS LATER THIS
MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AS FAR AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS CONCERNED...MOST SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PLUS OR MINUS 18Z...WHEN
PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE TRIAD AND RAINBANDS FROM
ARTHUR BEGIN AFFECTING EASTERN SITES. ARTHUR WILL PICK UP SPEED
DURING THE EVENING AND MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 25 KTS IN
CONVECTION BUT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIONS...GUSTS SHOULD STAY 20 KTS OR
BELOW.
LONG TERM: ARTHUR WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NO
SIGNIFICANT THREATS TO AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LONG
TERM.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS/MLM
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
902 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS PERSIST NEAR YAMSAY MOUNTAIN OR
ABOUT 15 MILES SW OF SILVER LAKE OREGON. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER
STORM IN THE SOUTH END OF THE SHASTA VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA NEAR
WEED AND MT SHASTA BUT THIS ONE IS WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. SHORT
TERM HRRR MODEL HAS DONE AN EXCELLENT JOB AT PINPOINTING THE
LOCATION AND FORECAST ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARNER
VALLEY OF EASTERN LAKE COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO
TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES.
THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WITH OUR FORECAST AREA
FINALLY BECOMING THUNDERSTORM FREE ON THURSDAY AS THE INSTABILITY
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. /FB
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 03/00Z TAFS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINE FROM THE MARBLE MTNS OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEAST WARD INTO KLAMATH AND NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES
AROUND 2200 PDT THEN DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS NEAR AND WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, AS WELL AS
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THIS EVENING...MARINE STRATUS WILL FORM AGAIN
ALONG THE COAST RESULTING IN MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE
VFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION AFTER 6Z. /FB
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED WEDNESDAY 2 JULY 300 PM PDT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND
WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. THESE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
THE THERMAL TROUGH INLAND. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH BY
TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONGER THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. /RS
&&
.FIRE WEATHERE...WE PICKED UP AROUND 600 STRIKES ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM THE SCOTT
VALLEY OF NORTHERN CALIIFORNIA NE INTO THE TULELAKE BASIN..BEFORE
REFORMING FROM THE YAMSAY MTN INTO SILVER LAKE AND THE CHRISTMAS
VALLEY. NOT AS CERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE RAIN WAS BUT SOME RAWS
SITES DID PICK UP MORE THAN THE CWR. SHORT TERM MODEL REDEVELOP
MORE CONVECTION AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ZONE 625 FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITIES SHIFTS EAST INTO BURNS BLM LAND. SO FAR
THIS AREA DID NOT SEE ANY LIGHTNING THIS EVENING SO WE WILL HAVE
TO TAKE THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH. AIR MASS BECOMES MORE STABLE
THURSDAY WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. /FB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE
CASCADES NEAR CHEMULT THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOUT 25-50 CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THESE STORMS ARE
FORMING IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WITH
CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP EAST
OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES THEN GET
MORE OF A PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO MORE OF
A WESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE WAS A BIT OF A CAP IN AREAS TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS ERODING AND
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO ALSO DEVELOP FROM NEAR THE
SHASTA/TRINITY/SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO
THE GOOSENEST AREA. THESE WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST MODOC
AND SOUTHERN KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST
STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SOME HAIL. RED FLAG
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT AND CAN
BE VIEWED AT RFWMFR.
LATER TONIGHT, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE AND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST BEYOND 11 PM PDT FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LAKE COUNTY. MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT, BUT A MARINE PUSH IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL
CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING,
THEN MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE ALONG THE
NORTH COAST, SO HAVE ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST. CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE SHOULD DISSIPATE MID-LATE MORNING THURSDAY. SHOULD BE DRY
ALL AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORCING AND AXIS OF INSTABILITY
EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TOUCH LOWER,
BUT OVERALL WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S READINGS.
MAINLY DRY, VERY WARM WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BREEZES, THOUGH BREEZES MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GUSTY OVER THE EAST
SIDE AND IN MODOC COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE ROGUE VALLEY AND
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 NEAR KLAMATH FALLS.
MODEL 850 TEMPS GET BACK INTO THE MID 20S CELSIUS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HOT WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND EVEN LOWER 100S AGAIN
FOR MEDFORD. INSTABILITY BEGINS TO SHOW UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA, BUT HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY DUE TO LACK OF TRIGGER. SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY PICKS UP BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT MIDWEEK. SPILDE
AVIATION...BASED ON THE 02/18Z TAFS...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS WELL AS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MAINLY IN
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES EAST OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR AND WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL NORTH OF MOUNT SHASTA,
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR AT TIMES. THIS
EVENING...MARINE STRATUS WILL FORM AGAIN ALONG THE COAST RESULTING
IN MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE VFR CIGS WILL BE THE
PREDOMINATE CONDITION AFTER 6Z. -PETRUCELLI
MARINE...UPDATED WEDNESDAY 2 JULY 300 AM PDT...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE WEST TODAY LEADING TO
INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
THE THERMAL TROUGH INLAND. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH BY
TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONGER THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
CAZ280>282-284-285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
$$
FJB/MAS/FJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
203 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE INTERACTION OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL SUPPORT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE STATE. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
NOT BE IMPACTED BY ARTHUR AS IT TRACKS FAR ENOUGH OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL BRING A VERY COMFORTABLE AND DRY 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SEVERE THREAT WANING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY THIS EVENING...AS
BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES. HOWEVER...THIS REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN A
PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS FROM THE RAP NEAR
4KM SUGGEST ANY REMAINING TSRA COULD BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY. EVENING VISIBLE IMAGERY IMPLIES A
MUCH MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...WHERE JUST A
FEW FLAT CU NOTED AT 00Z. FOR THIS PORTION OF CENTRAL PA...A DRY
NIGHT APPEARS IN STORE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE WARREN CO.
STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY LIES ALONG THE LK ERIE SHORE AND WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE ABOUT TO LIFT NE INTO THE GRT LKS FROM NW
OHIO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCT CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF THIS
BNDRY OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NR 60F OVR
THE NW MTNS...TO THE L70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. CLEARING
SKIES...A NEARLY CALM WIND AND RECENT RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS
SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FOCUS THURSDAY SHIFTS TO INTERACTION OF APPROACHING SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT AND ARTHUR...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A
MOD-HVY RAIN/PRE TYPE EVENT. CONCEPTUAL MODEL PLACES HIGHEST RISK
OF PRE/S ALONG LOW LVL THETA RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO FURTHER
WEST...CLOSER TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOCATION OF LOW LVL THETE RIDGE OVR SE PA
FAVORS THE EXTREME PORTION OF THE CWA /LANCASTER CO/ FOR POTENTIAL
PRE EVENT...WHILE ANOTHER RISK AREA COULD BE FURTHER INTO CENTRAL
PA...ALONG SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. NWP MODELS ARE OFTEN POOR WITH
THE PLACEMENT/INTENSITY OF PRE/S...BUT FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HWO ACROSS OUR SE ZONES
THURS/THU NIGHT.
MID LVL SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU THE REGION THURSDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY AFTN. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL GIVEN STRONG LG SCALE FORCING AND
AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SPC SLIGHT RISK OF
SVR EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE
COMBINATION OF MOD-HIGH CAPE AND SIGNIFICANT 0-6KM SHEAR SUPPORTS
AN ORGANIZED SVR WX THREAT. MAY BE TOO FAR NW FOR A PRE TYPE EVENT
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...BUT LEFT SOME
SHOWERS IN ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE AMOUNT OF CLDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SAT...GETTING CONCERN ABOUT HOW MUCH COOL AIR IS ADVECTED SE
ACROSS THE LAKES.
EXPECT A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY.
WENT WITH LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH ON MONDAY...THEN ALL
AREAS FOR TUE INTO WED...AS EC AND OTHER MODELS HINT AT A
WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FADE AS ANY STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD. LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE VERY NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF WARRN COUNTY. MODEL GUIDANCE
FAVOR IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/ST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURS...HAVE MAINTAINED MORE OPTIMISTICALLY /MAINLY MVFR VISBYS/
FOR NOW GIVEN PERSISTENCE AND LOW CONFIDENCE. LATER ISSUANCE MAY
NEED TO ADJUST IF FOG/ST BECOME MORE PREVALENT.
HUMID AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THURS. POTENTIAL REDUCTIONS IN
FOG/HAZE EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS PSBL DURING THE AFTN. EXPECT TSRA TO BE
POSSIBLE 15Z TO 02Z FRIDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDS THU NIGHT WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-EARLY SUN...VFR.
LATE SUN-MON...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1200 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THIS TAF PACKAGE WAS TO BACK UP
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO 16Z IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES...17Z IN THE HOUSTON METRO AREA...AND AFTER 18Z NEAR THE
COAST. THE 00Z GFE...HRRR...AND WRF-ARW MODEL RUNS ALL SUGGEST
THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL ORIGINATE FROM A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX NEAR THE DALLAS/FT WORTH METROPLEX AND DROP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. I STUCK WITH
VCSH/VCTS IN THIS TAF PACKAGE...HOWEVER SUBSEQUENT TAF UPDATES
SHOULD BEGIN TO NARROW DOWN THE TIMING AND IMPACTS AS MORE DATA
BECOMES AVAILABLE.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE STILL PROBABLE AT THE MORE RURAL
TERMINALS DURING PRE-DAWN HOURS. CIRRUS BLOWING OFF OF A LARGE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER IS COVERING THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS AND MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE PREVAILING VFR BY MID-MORNING. 44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE CLIMATE SECTION.
CLIMATE...
COLLEGE STATION HIT 95 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR THAT THE 95 DEGREE THRESHOLD HAS BEEN REACHED. THE LAST TIME
IT WAS 95 DEGREES AT KCLL WAS ON SEPT 25 2013. THE 278 DAY PERIOD
BELOW 95 DEGREES IS THE 21ST LONGEST STRETCH IN CITY HISTORY. THE
LONGEST STRETCH OF DAYS BELOW 95 DEGREES OCCURRED BETWEEN JULY 30
1975 AND JULY 31 1976...OR 368 DAYS.
THE CITY OF HOUSTON REACHED 94 DEGREES TODAY AND HAS NOT YET
REACHED 95 DEGREES SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE CITY OF HOUSTON IS
CURRENTLY AT 279 DAYS BELOW 95 DEGREES WHICH IS THE 54TH LONGEST
STREAK IN CITY HISTORY. THE LONGEST STRETCH OF DAYS BELOW 95
DEGREES WAS 725 DAYS BETWEEN AUG 12 1897 AND AUG 7 1899 (THAT
RECORD IS GOING TO LAST A WHILE). 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BUSY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS STORMS WOULD PULSE TO NEAR
SEVERE LIMITS AND THEN DROP BACK DOWN. SOME LOCATIONS PICKED UP
AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF TRINITY...SAN
JACINTO AND WALKER COUNTIES WITH SOME 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS OVER
WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY...RIGHT AT RUSH HOUR. PEA SIZE HAIL
ACCOMPANIED THE STRONGER STORMS IN HARRIS COUNTY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM TEXARKANA TO BROWNWOOD TO MIDLAND THIS
EVENING. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS EAST
TEXAS. AT 850 MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SE TX WITH
DEEPER 850 MSTR CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE HIGH. A WEAK
850 TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST. AT
700 MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SE TX...SOMEWHAT STACKED
ATOP THE 850 HIGH. MSTR WAS SPARSE AT THIS LEVEL. AT 250 MB...A
WEAK HIGH WAS OVER NE TX WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL LA ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WAS OVER WEST TEXAS.
THE RAP 13 IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING VERY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA WITH RAIN THEN
DEVELOPING IN THE HOUSTON AREA BY 16Z. THE HI-RES ARW WHICH
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL IS HOLDING MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL
18Z. THE 18Z TEXAS TECH IS COMING IN AND IT ALSO FAVORS PRECIP
DURING THE AFTN. ALL OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE WITH
RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY SO HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 50 PERCENT AND
FEEL THIS STILL MIGHT BE TOO LOW. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...
TWEAKED POPS...SKY GRIDS AND HOURLY TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT OBS.
NEW ZONES OUT BY 930 PM. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 94 75 92 73 / 10 40 20 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 95 77 93 74 / 10 50 20 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 90 80 88 79 / 10 30 20 40 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
246 AM PDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING
FURTHER EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL SPREAD LOW MARINE CLOUDS INTO THE
VALLEYS THROUGH THIS MORNING...TAKING UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO
CLEAR. AN UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...STRATUS IS STARTING TO FILL IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ABUNDANT ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM WED
CONTINUES ITS TREK FURTHER EAST OF THE CASCADES...AND THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BEGINS ITS APPROACH.
STILL ANTICIPATING A LATER BURN OFF FOR THE MARINE STRATUS THROUGHOUT
THE VALLEY...WITH INLAND STRATUS RETREATING TO THE COAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME MID-AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY REMAIN DUE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH OFFSHORE. THE MORNING CLOUDS...ONSHORE WINDS AND THE NEAR BY
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING INTO THE
80S...BUT STILL THINK THE INLAND VALLEYS WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
MODELS STILL ON TRACK SHOWING THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ANCHORED IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA OFF THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW AND PLEASANT WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING THE
GENERAL PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS/AFTERNOON SUN TO PREVAIL. BELIEVE
THE COVERAGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE A BIT LESS ON FRIDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF A LITTLE MOISTURE BRUSHING THE NORTH COAST AREAS MAINLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON ANY
LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. ITS LOOKING MORE LIKE IT WILL
BE MORE DRIZZLE THAN ACTUAL MEASURABLE PRECIP UNDER THE MARINE
STRATUS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON COASTS.
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FINAL IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NE PAC ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MAY
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUN BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON
THE TIMING AND JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE WILL SEE...BUT IT LOOKS
TO BE LIGHT AT BEST. THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST BY EARLY MON...ALLOWING SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDING TO BUILD
OVER THE PAC NW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING SOME
WARMING ALONG WITH A RETURN TO A TYPICAL PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS
GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. AN MVFR STRATUS DECK PUSHED INTO THE COAST THIS PAST
EVENING...AND IS NOW TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR THIS
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...RADIATIONAL STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
BEGINNING TO OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT. EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TWO STRATUS
DECKS TO EXPAND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS...LIKELY FILLING
MOST THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THE CIG HEIGHT LOOKS LIKELY TO BE
RIGHT AROUND 3000 FT. ESTIMATED BURN OFF FOR THE INTERIOR CLOUDS
IS BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z...AND 23Z OR LATER ALONG THE COAST. MVFR
CIGS LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE COAST LATE IN THE EVENING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT A HIGH MVFR DECK TO FORM BETWEEN 10Z
AND 11Z...WITH AN ESTIMATED BURN OFF BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. THEN
EXPECT VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MARINE CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. LIGHT NW FLOW THIS MORNING MAY PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KT
NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRES OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENING
INLAND. WITH ONLY WEAK ACTIVITY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...W-NW
SWELL SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1025 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated thunderstorms will range across the Inland Northwest
tonight as a weak weather disturbance passes through. Thursday
will be slightly cooler and locally breezy but essentially dry and
sunny. A stretch of dry and warm summer weather will envelope the
region from Friday through early next week with occasional high
clouds and the possibility of a few mountain showers and
thunderstorms during the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update to remove showers and storms west of a line from
Republic to Coulee City to Quincy. Water Vapor indicates a
midlevel dry slot has punched across the Cascades with visible
satellite indicating mostly clear skies at this hour. Still quite
a bit of convective instability ahead of this line with showers
and storms continue to fire across northern Oregon...some which
will track into southern Grant/Adams counties within the next few
hours. Some light echoes remain along an upper-level front from NE
WA to the Palouse but this is generally only dropping some
sprinkles so also removed thunder in these areas until after 11PM.
Latest HRRR and other Hi-Res models indicate the main show
overnight will be across SE WA and the lower ID Panhandle
associated with the heavier T-storm activity between Ukiah and
Bend in central Oregon. This will take some time to make its track
northward and shouldn`t be as strong as the current radar
indicates but should bring the "ripple" or convectively driven
vort max in the midlevels which will track into our already
established moist and unstable environment supporting the idea of
continued unsettled weather through the overnight periods. Brief
heavy rain and lightning strikes will be the main concern but
winds between 30-40 mph will also be possible without a strong
nocturnal inversion developing. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold front will slowly translate east through the
region. An unstable and moist air mass ahead of the front will
keep a threat for elevated showers and T-storms through early
morning. The front has passed through KEAT/KMWH so the main threat
for -tsra will be across Ern WA and Nrn ID mainly frm KPUW/KLWS to
KCOE. A few showers will brush KGEG/KSFF but the threat for -tsra
is too low to include in TAFS. The pcpn threat wanes arnd
11z then the main aviation concern for Thu will be breezy winds as
skies clear. Winds subside arnd 03z. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 63 85 56 84 60 84 / 20 10 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 62 84 53 83 55 82 / 30 20 10 0 0 10
Pullman 58 83 50 84 55 82 / 40 20 10 0 0 10
Lewiston 68 93 59 93 64 94 / 40 20 10 0 0 10
Colville 59 86 53 83 55 83 / 20 20 10 0 10 10
Sandpoint 57 82 49 81 50 80 / 30 30 10 0 10 10
Kellogg 60 82 53 83 54 80 / 40 30 10 10 10 10
Moses Lake 64 92 57 90 62 92 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 66 87 61 89 64 90 / 10 0 0 0 0 10
Omak 60 91 55 89 59 91 / 10 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1107 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
LAST INTO THE EVENING...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. HURRICANE ARTHUR
WILL PASS BY TO OUR EAST ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...PULLING IN DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AS LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1105 AM EDT...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADD
LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SO NOW THE WATCH
ENCOMPASSES ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. LITCHFIELD COUNTY RECEIVED BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN
YESTERDAY...AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THIS AREA WITH
THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING.
OTHERWISE...DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION WESTWARD. STILL A SOLID BATCH OF LINGERING
STRATUS CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LATE THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SMALL DISTURBANCE. THIS AREA SHOULD
SEE CLEARING BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION
TO OCCUR. IN FACT...CLOUDS AREA ALREADY MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SO THE BEST
INSTABILITY AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA...AND ESPECIALLY FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD TO LITCHFIELD CT.
WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HI RES MODELS
SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR INDICATING CONVECTIVE INITIATION
WILL BE A FEW HOURS LATER THAN YESTERDAY...MORE LIKELY IN THE 2-4
PM TIME FRAME TODAY. THE DEGREE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IS
STILL IN QUESTION...AS THERE ARE MITIGATING FACTORS SUCH AS WEAKER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0C/KM AND LESS MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 40 KT TODAY SO IF TALL UPDRAFTS CAN DEVELOP THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE AND BECOME SEVERE. SBCAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE...WITH THE MOST
INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WITH
CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL MAKE IT FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE.
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO THE
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRE (OR LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE
ONGOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OR SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT ANOTHER PRE (OR MAYBE THE REAL PRE) WILL
DEVELOPING MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION LATER THIS EVENING...BUT COULD
VERY WELL INCLUDE LITCHFIELD AN PERHAPS THE I-84 WEST INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY.
MEANWHILE A SLOW MOVING COLD WILL REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS
DURING THE EVENING...CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
SLOW SWING THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINING SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAWN.
HURRICANE ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...THEN
MAKE MORE OF A NORTHEASTERN TURN FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD ENSURE
THAT IT WOULD NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING ANY OF OUR REGION.
FOR THE ALL THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS OF ARTHUR INCLUDING
TRACK...INTENSITY AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS...PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC)...AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.
ARTHUR WILL HOWEVER HAVE AN INDIRECT IMPACT ON OUR REGION IN THAT
ONCE IT PASSES BY TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN
NORTHWEST ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO
INFILTRATE THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...POSSIBLY SOME STEADIER RAIN IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL STILL HAVE TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY.
WITH TIME...CLOUDS WILL BEING TO DIMINISH...LAST TO HAPPEN IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...AND POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A GUSTY NORTH
OR NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS CLEARING OUT ALLOWING FOR
A COOL NIGHT. A BREEZE COULD PERSIST BUT EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACK PARK.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A TERRIFIC DAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU. IT WILL BE BREEZY BUT WITH
VERY COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. DEEP MIXING AND THE STRONG JULY
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEAR 80 IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN...DESPITE H850
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO A LITTLE BELOW 10C.
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL WITH DIMINISHING WIND SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHEASTWARD...40S WELL
NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE SHOULD ROUND OUT THIS FIRST WEEKEND OF JULY ON A DRY NOTE AS
ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION. AS H850 TEMPS HOVER
INTO THE MID TEENS...SHOULD RESULT IN VALLEY HIGHS INTO THE LOW-MID
80S AND 75-80F FOR THE TERRAIN.
UPSTREAM...A WARM FRONT BECOMES A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS THE WESTERLIES
INCREASE ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WE WILL INCREASE POPS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
INCREASE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MORE MILDER WITH MAINLY 60S.
A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK
AS THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND A
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP THE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORIES.
THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE THE MON-TUE
TIME FRAME AS GLOBAL MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WITH FG/BR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BUT AS THE
MORNING PROGRESS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 13Z-15Z. KPSF WILL BE SLOWEST TO IMPROVE. THEN OUR
ATTENTION SHIFTS TOWARD CONVECTION AS SHOWERS WERE ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT KPOU THIS EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE A SIGN
FOR THINGS TO COME LATER ON AS MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
TO AT LEAST MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH SOME SHORTER PERIODS OF
IFR TOO. THE RAINFALL WILL BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY THAT CAN POSE
ADDITIONAL LOWERING OF THE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO IFR.
THE WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS
OF 10KTS OR LESS /EXCEPT HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS/.
THOSE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE DAY WILL START OFF WITH AREAS OF FOG. THEN SOME HAZY SUNSHINE
WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDDAY. AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BEGINS
PRESSING INTO THE REGION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IGNITE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE WILL
CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MOST EVERYONE WILL RECEIVE
WELL OVER A QUARTER OF INCH OF RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS QUITE VARIABLE.
SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...LAST TO
DO SO SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE DAY WILL START OUT DAMP AND MURKY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH A
SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE...AND EVEN SOME LEFTOVER STEADY RAIN WELL
SOUTH EAST OF ALBANY. WITH TIME...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD MIX AND RH
VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN ELEVATED
ABOVE 50 PERCENT EVEN AS A BREEZE KICKS FROM THE NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH.
THAT BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE IN MANY PLACES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SKY
CLEARS.
SATURDAY WILL BE A MUCH DRIER DAY WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. RH
VALUES BY AFTERNOON LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 30S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
BE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
SUNDAY LOOKS DRY TOO WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT.
AFTER A RESPITE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE UP
ONCE MORE AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS...ANY THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS WELL OVER 2 INCHES...IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AS PWATS
CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA AS WELL.
SINCE THERE WAS PLENTY OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...THE HIGH PWATS...THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WHAT WE HAVE TODAY COULD BE THE FIRST "PRE"
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ARTHUR (STILL SLATED TO MISS US)...WE
ISSUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE CONFIDENCE WAS AROUND 50 PERCENT
THAT IT WILL HAPPEN SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN VERMONT
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
OUR PROJECTED AVERAGE RIVER BASIN RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY ONLY CAUSE
SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT SOME OF THE STAGES COULD REACH "ACTION
STAGE" ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD TAKE PLACE OVER A
CRITICAL BASIN AREA. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY RIVER
FLOODING.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOWS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1106 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.UPDATE...THERE IS A RESIDUAL SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WHERE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE IMPETUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GEORGIA. HRRR LEAST ROBUST WITH
PRECIPITATION TODAY...WITH RUC13 AND NSSL WRF SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS ACROSS NE FLORIDA. WILL GO WITH
THE RUC13 AND WRF SOLUTIONS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...
PRIMARILY AFTER 20Z...WITH WANING CONVECTION AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
DUSK.
&&
.AVIATION...WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION LATER THIS MORNING...WITH AFTN TSTORM PROBABILITIES AROUND
40% AT ALL TERMINALS WITH VCTS BETWEEN 19-01Z. CONVECTION WANES
AROUND 02Z WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS WITH VSBYS
DROPPING TO 5SM AT CECIL FIELD. DRIER AIR SEEPS INTO THE REGION
FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...WITH TSTM COVERAGE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH 2 PM. COMBINED SEAS IN THE 40 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILE RANGE
WILL CONTINUE IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE...WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO
20 KNOT RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS NORTH OF THE ST. MARYS RIVER
40 TO 60NM OFFSHORE OF THE ALTAMAHA SOUND. AFTER 2 PM...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECAY AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO ELEVATED SWELLS
FROM ARTHUR. A ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 98 71 95 71 / 30 30 0 10
SSI 93 76 91 75 / 40 30 10 20
JAX 96 75 96 74 / 40 30 20 30
SGJ 93 76 91 75 / 40 20 40 40
GNV 93 74 94 71 / 40 30 30 30
OCF 93 74 93 71 / 40 30 40 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-
FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA
SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SANDRIK/CORDERO/GUILLET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1059 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD GRAZE THE
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY.
THE HRRR MODEL INDICATED CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS. THE SPC WRF
INDICATED LESS COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM WILL HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 20 PERCENT WEST TO 40 PERCENT
EAST.
LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO
AROUND 90 WEST ARE WELL ON THEIR WAY TO HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 90S EAST TO THE UPPER 90S WEST.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. USED THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD
GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DOWNSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND
APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT AND EXPECT
FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AND ALLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 10 TO
30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BANDS OF CONVECTION FROM HURRICANE ARTHUR TO
CROSS THE MIDLANDS AFFECTING CAE/CUB/OGB DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
ARTHUR WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE SC COAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING
A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE TAF SITES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM
23Z-04Z.
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING
BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND ARTHUR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NOT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
752 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE ON
THE FOURTH OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRAZE THE
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 07Z HRRR DISPLAYED
CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SPC WRF INDICATED LESS
COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL
HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT...BUT
RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUPPORT HIGHER POPS IN THE EXTREME EAST
PART. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WE
USED THE HOTTER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF
MIXING TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. USED THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD
GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DOWNSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND
APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT AND EXPECT
FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AND ALLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 10 TO
30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY.
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WHILE A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CENTRAL MS RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD.
A LINE OF CONVECTION CROSSING THE MIDLANDS IN THE VCNTY OF CAE/CUB
THROUGH 14Z. ADDITIONAL BANDS OF CONVECTION FROM HURRICANE ARTHUR
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON....CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. ARTHUR WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE SC COAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE TAF
SITES FROM THE WEST. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 04/04Z.
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING...BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
MID TO LATE MORNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
638 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE ON
THE FOURTH OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRAZE THE
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 07Z HRRR DISPLAYED
CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SPC WRF INDICATED LESS
COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL
HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT...BUT
RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUPPORT HIGHER POPS IN THE EXTREME EAST
PART. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WE
USED THE HOTTER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF
MIXING TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. USED THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD
GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DOWNSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND
APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT AND EXPECT
FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AND ALLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 10 TO
30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY.
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CENTRAL MS
RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING SO HAVE ADDED VCSH TO THE CAE AND
CUB TAFS UNTIL 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 4 TO 5 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PICK
UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
NORTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 TO 18
KNOTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR DAYBREAK AT
OGB/AGS. WIND MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
600 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE ON
THE FOURTH OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRAZE THE
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 07Z HRRR DISPLAYED
CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SPC WRF INDICATED LESS
COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL
HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT...BUT
RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUPPORT HIGHER POPS IN THE EXTREME EAST
PART. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WE
USED THE HOTTER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF
MIXING TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. USED THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD
GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START AND THE FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DOWNSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND
APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT AND EXPECT
FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AND ALLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 10 TO
30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY.
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CENTRAL MS RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 4 TO 5 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
NORTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 TO 18
KNOTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR DAYBREAK AT
OGB/AGS. WIND MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
951 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VERY WARM AND MAINLY DRY DAY WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA FOR TODAY WITH A STRONG HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE STATE NORTHWARD THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES EAST OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL IMPROVE. CONVECTION INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MONTANA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
LATER IN THE DAY. RECENT HRRR MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD OFF ON BRINGING
IN SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNTIL AFTER
6 PM. ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS IDEA. WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CROSSING INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE
TRANSLATES EAST.
GIVEN HIGH SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS
ARE COLLAPSING ON THEIR WAY INTO THE FORECAST REGION ALLOWING
DOWNDRAFT AIR TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS ALONE IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN
AWARENESS PERTAINING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS FORT
PECK LAKE IN CLOSE TEMPORAL PROXIMITY TO THE HOLIDAY. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS SWAY ACROSS MOST OF
MONTANA AND THE SURROUNDING REGION...THE LARGE AND ACTIVE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIAN COAST IS BEGINNING TO
SNEAK THE FIRST WAVES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MONTANA.
FOR TODAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP THOSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA...BUT THEY
MIGHT JUST BE ABLE TO SNEAK OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT
AS INDICATED BY THE GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS. BEST GUESS PLACES GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING INTO THE
20G30 MPH RANGE. FELT IT WOULD BE JUST ENOUGH ABOVE BORDERLINE
CONDITIONS TO WARRANT ISSUING A LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BREAK INTO THE 90S FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ACROSS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE CWA. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT IF NOT CALM. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT OVER
TO OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR IT IS
NOT AS CONVINCING. NAM AND SREF SHOW IT BEST...BUT THE GFS AND EC
SHOW MORE OF A VIRGA OR JUST CLOUDINESS.
SATURDAY EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE 90S AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR OUR EASTERN CWA BORDER WITH NORTH
DAKOTA. YET...WITH ONLY LIMITED MODEL SUPPORT...NOT OVERLY
CONVINCED AT THIS POINT THAT ANY STORMS WILL HAPPEN AT ALL. BEST
INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONGREGATE OVER NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT BY
THE WEEKEND. THE RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AS
THE RIDGE REBOUNDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TROF DIGS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. NORTHEAST MONTANA REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY AREA
BETWEEN THE HOT DRY HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE COLDER
WETTER FLOW AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW. FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK THE
HOT DRY WEATHER HIGH WILL HAVE THE BIGGER IMPACT HOWEVER MODELS
SUGGESTING A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MIDWEEK
WHICH COULD PULL SOME OF THE COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD AND PRODUCE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.
TFJ
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
518 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR
UNTIL 16Z EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
ISOLD -SHRA CENTRAL AND WRN NM UNTIL AROUND 15Z. UPPER HIGH CENTER
TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN AZ WITH LIGHT NLY TO NE STEERING FLOW. SCT
SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WND GUSTS TO 40KT TO BE
FOCUSED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN AFT 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...349 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
FOUR CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...DAILY
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THESE STORMS
WILL GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCARS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY...BUT THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN TRUDGING DOWN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAS BEEN WELL-HANDLED BY THE HRRR THIS MORNING. BEST GUESS IS THAT
IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND
SUNRISE.
AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...IT SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE THAN WEDNESDAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS WORKED OVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND THERE IS LESS CLOUD DEBRIS TO
START OFF THE DAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PUT THE THETA-E AXIS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND THE END OF THE 06Z HRRR RUN
SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. FOR THESE
REASONS...HAVE SHIFTED POPS A BIT NORTHWESTWARD. WITH THE HIGH
CENTER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWESTWARD...BUT VERY SLOWLY. THUS...ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.
ON FRIDAY...THETA-E AXIS GENERALLY FAVORS AN AREA FROM WEST CENTRAL
NM ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND NE NM. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
HIGH WILL GENERALLY BE SQUARE ACROSS THE STATE. VERY LITTLE STEERING
FLOW EXISTS...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE GUIDED MORE BY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT NORTHWARD...WHICH
MEANS THE STEERING FLOW WILL CHANGE TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...AND PERHAPS ALMOST DUE WESTWARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STEER ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
AWAY FROM NM...THUS...WITH NO REAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD A BIT.
LOOKS LIKE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP INTO WESTERN NM ON
MONDAY...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS. THIS SHOULD SPREAD
SOMEWHAT INTO CENTRAL NM BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL BE LIMITED...IF NOT SHUT DOWN
ALTOGETHER...TUES/WED. THIS IS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE HIGH AND COMES BACK WESTWARD
OVER TEXAS.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CONVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE RGV AS OF THIS WRITING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SEEP WESTWARD TOWARDS THE ARIZONA BORDER...AND
24 HR DEW POINT CHANGES RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 DEGREES FROM KGNT WEST AND
NORTHWESTWARD.
THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH FRIDAY...WHERE HIGHEST POPS FORECAST.
DEW POINTS REMAIN FORECAST TO MIX OUT SOMEWHAT NORTHWEST AND FAR
WEST CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...AND TREND STILL ON TRACK FOR
ADDITIONAL DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS CENTRAL AND WEST FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH
THE H5 HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER ERN AZ...STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE A
SLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DRIFT...WHILE FRIDAY COULD SEE RATHER SLOW
AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN BOTH DAYS.
HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH A SLOW
CLIMB TO MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT TREND TOWARDS FAIR BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU. LATE DAY HUMIDITIES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT WON/T FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT MOST
LOCALES. HAINES FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO EVEN POOR SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL TODAY...AND FROM THE WEST CENTRAL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
FRIDAY.
FORECAST MODELS WOBBLE THE UPPER HIGH CENTER AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH FAVORS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH
CENTER MAY ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE FLOW OVER THE NRN US
WEAKENS...BUT FEATURES WHICH WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT FOR NEW MEXICO ARE
NOT DEFINED WELL ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1057 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS NEW YORK WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
LIKELY WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY AND
REMAIN FOR THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE... RELATIVELY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE SKY
COVER/POP/WX GRIDS...BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE.
SAT/RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MRNG SHOWS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDS OVER
CNY/NE PA...WITH MRNG FOG/STRATUS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE. PRIND
STILL ARE THAT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL FIRE UP OVER OUR WRN/NRN ZNS EARLY
THIS AFTN (16-18Z)...WITH COVERAGE GROWING FARTHER E LATER IN THE
DAY (18-20Z AND LATER). OUR LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR OUTPUT SUPPORTS
THIS THINKING WELL.
AS FAR AS POTENTIAL SVR STORMS GO...WE FEEL THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY (MOSTLY 18-21Z)...AS STORMS INITIALLY
FORM...AND ARE ABLE TO PLUG INTO DEEP-LYRD SHEAR (0-3 KM VALUES OF
30-40 KT). STG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS REGARD.
LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVE...HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BECOME THE
GREATER CONCERN...MOSTLY OVER OUR SERN ZNS (NE PA AND THE WRN
CATSKILLS). THE MAIN PLAYERS HERE ARE A STRENGTHENING UPR-LVL JET
TO OUR N FROM LK ONT INTO ONT/QUE...A SLOW MOVING FRNTL BNDRY ACRS
WRN/CNTRL NY...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (WITH INCREASING INPUT
FROM ARTHUR BY EARLY EVE). THE LATEST BLENDED TPW/WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS ARTHUR`S MOISTURE PLUME MERGING INTO THE ALREADY
EXISTING BAND OF FAIRLY HI PWAT AIR ALG THE MID-ATL COAST...AS OF
LATE THIS MRNG. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS LARGER-
SCALE MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN SHOWING BACKING
925-850 MB FLOW...WITH DEEPER TROP MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO ERN
PA/NJ/SERN NY BY 22-02Z. MODEL TRAJS FROM THE LATEST GFS/RAP RUNS
ALSO SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF ARTHUR`S INFLUENCE LIKELY INTO ERN
PA BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME FRAME.
THE ABV DESCRIBED CONFIGURATION OF THE UPR JET CORE...LOW-LVL
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...PWAT...AND A SFC FRNT STILL MATCH THE
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR A "SWLY JET TYPE PRE" (PREDECESSOR RAIN
EVENT) WELL. AS STATED EARLIER...WE THINK THE MAIN FF THREAT IN
OUR CWA WILL BE E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...BUT SINCE THE WATCH IS
PRESENTLY UP AREA-WIDE...AND CONVECTION HAS NOT REALLY SHOWN
ITSELF JUST YET...WE`LL LEAVE THE WATCH AREA AS IS FOR THE TIME
BEING.
OTHERWISE...OUR HIGH TEMP FCST THIS AFTN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE (GENERALLY UPR 70S-MID 80S...WITH SOME UPR 80S IN THE
WYO/LACK VLYS OF NE PA).
PREV DISC... 630 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. DENSE FOG AND
NO SHOWERS YET. SHOWERS IN WRN NY JUST TO THE NW OF THE CWA WILL
MOVE IN THIS MORNING AS THE INHIBITION BREAKS. FORGOT TO MENTION
BEFORE THAT SPC STILL HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY WIND THEN HAIL AND MAYBE EVEN A
TORNADO. BETTER DEEP SHEAR TODAY BUT CAPE LESS. ALSO WPC HAS US IN
A SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY ONE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHIC. THIS HAS
NOT CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY.
3 AM UPDATE...
CONTINUE TO BE IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM MONTREAL TO DETROIT. THE FRONT WILL
MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THEN STALL IN PA/NY TONIGHT. SOME SUNSHINE WILL
DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE A 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES
INTO WRN NY. THIS UL JET WILL PROVIDE LIFT WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
THE TRIGGER WILL BE AN UL TROF WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES ALSO
MOVING EAST INTO WRN NY. TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL INTENSIFY INTO
A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL HELP
FUNNEL DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF IT WHICH WILL
RUN INTO THE FRONT. THIS WILL SET OFF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH HEAVY RAIN. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP HEAVY RAIN
WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT COULD FALL IN AN HOUR.
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS CAUSED SOME AREAS TO BE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. ALL MODELS SHOWING A WIDE SWATH OF
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CWA.
CONVECTION WILL START OVER WRN NY LATE MORNING AND MOVE SE ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE AFTN. TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVE BUT AS
COLDER AIR COMES IN AND DAYTIME HEATING GETS MIXED TSTORMS WILL
END FROM NW TO SE. ALSO UL DIVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN AS THE JET
STREAK MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL END IN
THE EVE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO NOT BRING THE CWA ANY OF ITS WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO NY KEEPING TS ARTHUR ON THE
COAST. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL PUSH EAST. THIS WILL PUSH SHOWERS OUT OF THE FAR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRI NGT AS
ARTHUR MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE HIGH. WITH THE CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY PEAK MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S FOR A COLD 4TH.
ON SAT THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BUT
EXTEND NORTH INTO ONTARIO PROVIDING THE OUR CWA WITH DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER FRI NGT TO SAT NGT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY BUT WARMER THAN FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
510 AM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS/POPS AS FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FAIR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE BREAKING
DOWN AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER MODESTLY AMPLIFIED TROF MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES BY MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARMER AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THEN RETURN WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR TROF AND COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGES AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY. MONDAY WILL BE THE MARGINAL
DAY...WHICH COULD BE SALVAGED AS A DRY DAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM/HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY MIDDAY ALONG WITH MVFR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THIS EVENING, ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT SATURATED SOILS AND WEAK
MIXING WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE TODAY AROUND
5 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUN...VFR.
MON...VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1026 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST THIS MORNING...NUDGING DOWN
THE CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND ADJUSTING SKY
CONDITION TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. AMDAR AND MODEL SOUNDING
SUGGEST WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY JUST AS WE DID
YESTERDAY...WITH LIFTED INDICES SHOWING UP AROUND -5 AND CAPES
2000 TO 3000 J/KG ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED (RUNNING
AROUND 90F). ONLY QUESTION IS THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW VERY LITTLE WIND OR WIND SHEAR SO WE SHOULD HAVE SLOW MOVING
ORDINARY CELLS OR PULSE TYPE STORMS AND NOT SO MUCH ORGANIZED
CONVECTION LIKE CLUSTERS OR LINES. THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY
SITUATED OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THINK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND THAT WITH SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK THUNDERSTORMS OFF BEGINNING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EACH CELL WILL CREATE OUTFLOWS WHICH WILL
KILL THE ORIGINAL STORM BUT KICK OFF OTHERS. MOS GUIDANCE IS QUITE
LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 6 HOUR POPS IN MET GUIDANCE FOR IAH ONLY
8 PERCENT AND MAV ONLY 11. THINK THIS MOS GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO
LOW...AND AM FOLLOWING MORE THE SCENARIO SHOWN IN THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE MODELS LIKE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF WITH PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOW THE SCENARIO OUTLINED ABOVE WITH MORE SCATTERED TYPE CONVECTION
IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARIES. COVERAGE SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 20 TO
30 PCT SW COUNTIES TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT NORTHEAST...CLOSEST TO THE
BOUNDARY. 46
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
HEIGHTENED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
90 F ARE MET. GENERALLY WEAKENED RIDGING...WITH AMPLE COLUMN MOISTURE
..WILL PRIME THE SCENE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BEGIN FIRING
ALONG EITHER A NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OR ALONG
THE LOCAL MESOSCALE SEA/BAY BREEZES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THE DOWNSTREAM (RE)GENERATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE LIFT
PROVIDED BY SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW GUST FRONTS OUT OF PRIOR CONVECTION.
AS OF 03/09Z...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE PINEY WOODS
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA IS WHERE THE HIGH REZ SHORT TERM NWP ARE
PROGGING WHERE TODAY`S CONVECTION WILL COMMENCE. EARLY DAY MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 80S
BY LATE MORNING ...INITIATING BLOSSOMING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OF SLOW MOVEMENT PER WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL STEERING
WINDS. ANY NORTHERN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT TRAVELS INTO
EASTERN TEXAS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL ONLY PROVIDE THE SPARK
NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AND INDEPENDENCE DAY CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER THAN 1.75 INCH PWATS
WITHIN A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
INDICES THAT EXCEED CONVECTION-TRIGGERING CRITERIA...DEEP DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AXIS UP THROUGH 500 MB...ARE MORE INDICATIONS THAT MANY COUNTIES
WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF EITHER SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
..AND GUSTY WINDS FROM STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS PAST 7 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO THE MAJORITY OF THE
PYROTECHNICS SHOWS SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL UNDERGO LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED...
WITH THE DIURNAL SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 F ARE ACHIEVED. ANALOG BEHAVIOR TO THE
DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURE SINUSOIDAL CURVE...MEAN LOW-MID 90 F MAXIMUMS
TO AVERAGE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S. LESS CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND COULD PEAK AMBIENT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREAWIDE MIDDLE 90S THAT...WITH
PW`S GREATER THAN 1.3 OR 1.4 INCHES EQUATING TO NEAR 50% RH...WILL
BRIEFLY PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOWER 100S BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM.
KEEP THE UMBRELLA CLOSE OVER THE FOURTH...OBEY LIGHTNING RULES...AND
HAVE WATER NEARBY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STAY SAFE!
MARINE...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY & SEABREEZE WILL PROVIDE TRIGGERS
FOR SOME TSRA TODAY & FRI...MAINLY IN THE BAYS AND INLAND. BUT
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLUSTERS MOVING OFF
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 47
AVIATION...
ISOLATED PATCHES OF MVFR FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
MODEL THAT INITIALIZED CURRENT N TX TSTMS WELL (ARW) SUGGESTS
POSSIBLE OUTFLOW AND SCT CONVECTION MOVING INTO NRN PARTS OF SE TX
AFTER SUNRISE AND TO NEAR THE COAST TOWARD NOON. THEN FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INLAND DURING THE AFTN. REST OF THE MODELS
NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE MORNING BUT DO INDICATE RAPID TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A GOOD MAJORITY OF SE TX (N OF COAST/SEABREEZE)
BETWEEN 19-21Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WILL PROBABLY THROW IN SOME
TEMPOS DURING THE AFTN HOURS. PULSE SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS. CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE 7-10PM WITH LOSS OF HEATING. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 75 92 73 95 / 40 20 50 20 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 95 77 93 74 94 / 40 50 50 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 80 88 79 90 / 30 20 40 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
920 AM MST THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXISTS...AND BLOWING DUST MAY HAPPEN WEST TO
NORTHWEST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS SE AZ WITH 03/12Z KTWC
TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.30 INCHES...NEARLY 0.40 INCH HIGHER
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW HAS ALSO INCREASED AND
BECOME MORE ELY VERSUS WED MORNING. 03/13Z RUC HRRR AND 03/12Z UNIV
OF AZ WRF-NAM QUITE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT
TO FIRST OCCUR JUST SOUTH OF TUCSON BY ABOUT 19Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RUC HRRR AND U OF AZ WRF-NAM COMP REFLECTIVITY
SIGNATURES AND 10 M WINDS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
BLOWING DUST THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST AREA FOR WIDESPREAD BLOWING
DUST SHOULD BE ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...THEN WIDESPREAD
BLOWING DUST SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN TUCSON AND PHOENIX. A BLOWING DUST
ADVISORY WILL BE FORTHCOMING FOR THIS SCENARIO. POPS WILL BE
INCREASED FOR WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS PROGGED TO MOVE WEST-TO-NORTHWEST OF THIS FORECAST
AREA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-WIDE LATE
TONIGHT.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO MAY OCCUR FRI...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAIL WILL
CERTAINLY NOT BE IDENTICAL. THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS PROGGED
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SELY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER
NWRN NEW MEXICO. VARIOUS NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI WOULD BE ACROSS WRN SECTIONS...WITH SOME DRYING
ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS INTO SWRN NEW MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
TSTMS WILL OCCUR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING FOLLOWED BY DECREASING
COVERAGE LATE FRI NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE ACROSS
THE WRN CONUS INTO THE SRN CONUS PLAINS SAT-WED. THERE SHOULD BE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOISTURE ACROSS SE AZ THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO CLEAR
DISTINCTION REGARDING ENHANCED CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS VERSUS
LESSER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. THUS...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON/
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON...WITH
GENERALLY LESSER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON WWD/NWWD.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/18Z.
TSRA/SHRA TO DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF KTUS BY AROUND 19Z TODAY...
THEN SCT-NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR
VISIBILITIES TO OCCUR WITH +TSRA...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 45 KTS. TSRA/SHRA COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL BE AROUND
10-15K FT AGL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER....
ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
445 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 437 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER OUR NRN ZONES
THIS AFTN SO BUMPED UP POPS IN THAT AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST THINKING AS CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIE
DOWN AS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
MOISTURE IS BEING WRAPPED UP IN COUNTERCLOCKWISE FLOW UNDERNEATH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THOUGH DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AFTER 8PM DUE TO INCREASING STABILITY WITH SFC COOLING.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
LATE IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE AREA OF CONVECTION WELL
TODAY AND PROJECTS MOISTURE TO WRAP BACK AROUND FROM THE EAST
AFTER 6PM IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN REGION BUT DISSIPATED BY
MIDNIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WELL WITH 0.75 INCH PWATS REMAINING UNDER THE RIDGE...MEDIOCRE
40KT DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND INCREASED SUNSHINE DUE TO A LACK OF
ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...DUE TO A LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING
AND STEERING...STORM CELLS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NOT DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS. THE SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORED AS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
IN THIS REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK FOR CONTINUED HOT TEMPS. MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH NORTH OVER UT/WRN CO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
POOLING OVER SRN AZ/SRN NM/NWRN MEXICO TO GRADUALLY EXPAND
NORTHWARD...WHILE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH.
DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY SMALL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM MOST AFTERNOONS IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION.
STORM COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL...TO SCATTERED OVER THE SAN JUANS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 0.5 TO 0.65 INCH THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MIX
OF WET AND DRY STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN UTAH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE BIGGEST THREAT.
KTEX AND KDRO ARE THE MOST FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OF
THE REGIONAL TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET IN MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN REGION INCLUDING KDRO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR
DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CO ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONCENTRATED OVER THE SAN JUAN
MTNS SO FAR TODAY BUT WILL DRIFT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FWX
ZONE 207 LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. STORMS WERE MORE ISOLATED
ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND...STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MIX OF WET
AND DRY. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK KEEPING
THE DRYING POTENTIAL HIGH.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ207-290>293.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JAM
FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
331 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
MOISTURE IS BEING WRAPPED UP IN COUNTERCLOCKWISE FLOW UNDERNEATH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THOUGH DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AFTER 8PM DUE TO INCREASING STABILITY WITH SFC COOLING.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
LATE IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE AREA OF CONVECTION WELL
TODAY AND PROJECTS MOISTURE TO WRAP BACK AROUND FROM THE EAST
AFTER 6PM IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN REGION BUT DISSIPATED BY
MIDNIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WELL WITH 0.75 INCH PWATS REMAINING UNDER THE RIDGE...MEDIOCRE
40KT DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND INCREASED SUNSHINE DUE TO A LACK OF
ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...DUE TO A LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING
AND STEERING...STORM CELLS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NOT DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS. THE SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORED AS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
IN THIS REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK FOR CONTINUED HOT TEMPS. MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH NORTH OVER UT/WRN CO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
POOLING OVER SRN AZ/SRN NM/NWRN MEXICO TO GRADUALLY EXPAND
NORTHWARD...WHILE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH.
DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY SMALL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM MOST AFTERNOONS IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION.
STORM COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL...TO SCATTERED OVER THE SAN JUANS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 0.5 TO 0.65 INCH THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MIX
OF WET AND DRY STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN UTAH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE BIGGEST THREAT.
KTEX AND KDRO ARE THE MOST FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OF
THE REGIONAL TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET IN MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN REGION INCLUDING KDRO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR
DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CO ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONCENTRATED OVER THE SAN JUAN
MTNS SO FAR TODAY BUT WILL DRIFT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FWX
ZONE 207 LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. STORMS WERE MORE ISOLATED
ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND...STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MIX OF WET
AND DRY. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK KEEPING
THE DRYING POTENTIAL HIGH.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ207-290>293.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JAM
FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
447 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
LAST INTO THE EVENING...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. HURRICANE ARTHUR
WILL PASS BY TO OUR EAST ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...PULLING IN DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AS LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #391 NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT FOR
ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 12 AM EDT FRIDAY MORNING...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BLOSSOMED ACROSS THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THAT YIELDED SBCAPE AND MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TREKKING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK. A PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAS ALSO HELPED PROMOTE DYNAMIC
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION.
BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6KM LAYER ARE APPROACHING 50
KNOTS...WHICH HAS ENABLED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO FORM ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...LIKELY AIDED BY LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS.
WHILE ADDITIONAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
SHEAR VALUES...THE SHEAR VECTORS THEMSELVES ARE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO
THE COLD FRONT SO DOMINANT STORM MODE SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION
TO LINEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY SUPERCELL THAT DOES
FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. PLEASE MONITOR OUR WEBPAGE AND
SOCIAL MEDIA PAGES FOR THE LATEST REGARDING THIS EVOLVING SITUATION.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT CLEARING ACROSS
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WHICH WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF CONTINUE TO
SHOW SIGNALS OF A QLCS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. LATEST SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MUCH OF THE
SHEAR IS CONCENTRATED IN THE 2-4KM LAYER...WHICH COULD FURTHER
ENHANCE ANY COLD POOLS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM THE STORMS DUE TO
NONHYDROSTATIC EFFECTS. COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE
VALUES...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A
LONG DURATION WIND EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.
FURTHER EXACERBATING ISSUES IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MUCH
OF THE AREA RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM THE CONVECTION
YESTERDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-3+ INCHES ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 14 KFT AND PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-2.00 INCHES...EXTREMELY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES WILL BE FAVORED WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES
WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUND AND THE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
URBAN AREAS.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...STALLING
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE PEAKED ACROSS THE REGION...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID 80S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HURRICANE ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST WELL OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...HAVING NO EFFECTS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO SET UP
ACROSS AN AREA STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEW JERSEY TO CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS. THIS REGION OF CONVERGENCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE
COLD FRONT AS IT STALLS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HELPING TO
STEER HURRICANE ARTHUR OFFSHORE. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS A
QUASI-PRE SETUP...ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO ASCERN.
REGARDLESS...A PERIOD OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND
POSSIBLY NORTHWARD INTO ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE BULK OF
THE RAINFALL APPEARS THAT IT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL RACE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...DRAGGING IN
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR BEHIND IT ACROSS THE REGION. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER AND DECREASING CLOUDS TO END
INDEPENDENCE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR GORGEOUS AND DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...GENERALLY IN THE
70S. HIGHS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE TYPICAL WEATHER FOR
EARLY JULY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL AS EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC AND A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE HAVE A CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS MONDAY WHEN HEATING IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD AS
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THEN...A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. DIFFICULT TO TIME
ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHER THAN A FEW ROGUE SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THE
BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN LATE AFTERNOON AND MID
EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AS ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF TSRA MOVES
THROUGH. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY TSRA. CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION
TSRA WITH IFR IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
POTENTIAL SOLID LINE OF TSRA WITH DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS SWEEPING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 22Z-02Z. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY
KPSF/KPOU AFTER 12Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 58 MPH AND LARGE HAIL ONE INCH OR GREATER IN DIAMETER...WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ENTIRE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...LAST TO
DO SO SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE DAY WILL START OUT DAMP AND MURKY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH A
SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE...AND EVEN SOME LEFTOVER STEADY RAIN WELL
SOUTH EAST OF ALBANY. WITH TIME...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD MIX AND RH
VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN ELEVATED
ABOVE 50 PERCENT EVEN AS A BREEZE KICKS FROM THE NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH.
THAT BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE IN MANY PLACES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SKY
CLEARS.
SATURDAY WILL BE A MUCH DRIER DAY WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. RH
VALUES BY AFTERNOON LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 30S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
BE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
SUNDAY LOOKS DRY TOO WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE REGION...AND IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 1-2 INCHES.
HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS WELL OVER 2 INCHES...IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AS
PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES. THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA AS WELL. COMBINED WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE
CONVECTION YESTERDAY...FLASH FLOODING AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
OUR PROJECTED AVERAGE RIVER BASIN RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY ONLY CAUSE
SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT SOME OF THE STAGES COULD REACH "ACTION
STAGE" ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD TAKE PLACE OVER A
CRITICAL BASIN AREA. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY RIVER
FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS EARLY
FRIDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOWS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/IRL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
233 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
LAST INTO THE EVENING...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. HURRICANE ARTHUR
WILL PASS BY TO OUR EAST ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...PULLING IN DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AS LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #391 NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT
FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 12 AM EDT FRIDAY MORNING...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...CONTINUING TO MONITOR DESTABILIZATION TRENDS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOW SPAWNING A NICE CU
FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOW
STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT IS NOW FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...SBCAPE AND MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG
SHOULD EASILY BE REACHED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...PROVIDING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SYNOPTICALLY A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
NEW YORK...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE WITH
INCREASING INTENSITY AHEAD OF IT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP
TO FURTHER INCREASE DYNAMIC LIFT AMIDST CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH...OR MORE OF A
DIABATIC HEATING BOUNDARY...LOCATED EAST OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK. IT IS HERE WHERE MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR
AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF SIGNAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN 17Z-19Z.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...WITH ALREADY ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
PA...WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH NOW A 30%
CONTOUR FOR WIND FROM INTERSTATE 90 AND LOCATIONS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST ONLY AROUND 6.0
C/KM...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HAIL.
REGARDLESS...TALL AND ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE STILL EXPECTED AS BULK
SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6KM LAYER ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 40-50 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS STORM
ORGANIZATION. EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT TO BE FROM STRAIGHT-
LINE WINDS AS THE SHEAR VECTORS ARE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A TRANSITION FROM INITIALLY DISCRETE
CELLS QUICKLY TO A LINEAR MODE. THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF ALSO
SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...DEVELOPING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION AND
TRACKING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
GIVEN THE MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES IN THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG SHEAR...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED AND LONG
DURATION WIND THREAT. IF A LINE OF ROBUST CONVECTION CAN FORM...A
STRONG COLD POOL MAY DEVELOP AIDED BY STRONG EVAPORATIONAL COOLING
FROM THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED AND A RELATIVELY DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER.
FURTHER EXACERBATING ISSUES IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MUCH
OF THE AREA RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM THE CONVECTION
YESTERDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-3+ INCHES ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 14 KFT AND PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-2.00 INCHES...EXTREMELY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES WILL BE FAVORED WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES
WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUND AND THE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
URBAN AREAS.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
20Z-02Z...AGAIN WITH THE GREATEST THREATS BEING FROM STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRE (OR LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE
ONGOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OR SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT ANOTHER PRE (OR MAYBE THE REAL PRE) WILL
DEVELOPING MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION LATER THIS EVENING...BUT COULD
VERY WELL INCLUDE LITCHFIELD AN PERHAPS THE I-84 WEST INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY.
MEANWHILE A SLOW MOVING COLD WILL REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS
DURING THE EVENING...CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
SLOW SWING THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINING SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAWN.
HURRICANE ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...THEN
MAKE MORE OF A NORTHEASTERN TURN FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD ENSURE
THAT IT WOULD NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING ANY OF OUR REGION.
FOR THE ALL THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS OF ARTHUR INCLUDING
TRACK...INTENSITY AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS...PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC)...AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.
ARTHUR WILL HOWEVER HAVE AN INDIRECT IMPACT ON OUR REGION IN THAT
ONCE IT PASSES BY TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN
NORTHWEST ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO
INFILTRATE THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...POSSIBLY SOME STEADIER RAIN IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL STILL HAVE TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY.
WITH TIME...CLOUDS WILL BEING TO DIMINISH...LAST TO HAPPEN IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...AND POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A GUSTY NORTH
OR NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS CLEARING OUT ALLOWING FOR
A COOL NIGHT. A BREEZE COULD PERSIST BUT EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACK PARK.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A TERRIFIC DAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU. IT WILL BE BREEZY BUT WITH
VERY COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. DEEP MIXING AND THE STRONG JULY
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEAR 80 IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN...DESPITE H850
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO A LITTLE BELOW 10C.
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL WITH DIMINISHING WIND SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHEASTWARD...40S WELL
NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE TYPICAL WEATHER FOR
EARLY JULY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL AS EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC AND A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE HAVE A CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS MONDAY WHEN HEATING IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD AS
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THEN...A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. DIFFICULT TO TIME
ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHER THAN A FEW ROGUE SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THE
BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN LATE AFTERNOON AND MID
EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AS ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF TSRA MOVES
THROUGH. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY TSRA. CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION
TSRA WITH IFR IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
POTENTIAL SOLID LINE OF TSRA WITH DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS SWEEPING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 22Z-02Z. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY
KPSF/KPOU AFTER 12Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE DAY WILL START OFF WITH AREAS OF FOG. THEN SOME HAZY SUNSHINE
WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDDAY. AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BEGINS
PRESSING INTO THE REGION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IGNITE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE WILL
CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MOST EVERYONE WILL RECEIVE
WELL OVER A QUARTER OF INCH OF RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS QUITE VARIABLE.
SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...LAST TO
DO SO SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE DAY WILL START OUT DAMP AND MURKY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH A
SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE...AND EVEN SOME LEFTOVER STEADY RAIN WELL
SOUTH EAST OF ALBANY. WITH TIME...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD MIX AND RH
VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN ELEVATED
ABOVE 50 PERCENT EVEN AS A BREEZE KICKS FROM THE NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH.
THAT BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE IN MANY PLACES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SKY
CLEARS.
SATURDAY WILL BE A MUCH DRIER DAY WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. RH
VALUES BY AFTERNOON LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 30S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
BE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
SUNDAY LOOKS DRY TOO WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT.
AFTER A RESPITE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE UP
ONCE MORE AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS...ANY THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS WELL OVER 2 INCHES...IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AS PWATS
CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA AS WELL.
SINCE THERE WAS PLENTY OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...THE HIGH PWATS...THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WHAT WE HAVE TODAY COULD BE THE FIRST "PRE"
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ARTHUR (STILL SLATED TO MISS US)...WE
ISSUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE CONFIDENCE WAS AROUND 50 PERCENT
THAT IT WILL HAPPEN SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN VERMONT
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
OUR PROJECTED AVERAGE RIVER BASIN RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY ONLY CAUSE
SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT SOME OF THE STAGES COULD REACH "ACTION
STAGE" ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD TAKE PLACE OVER A
CRITICAL BASIN AREA. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY RIVER
FLOODING.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOWS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/JPV
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
152 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
LAST INTO THE EVENING...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. HURRICANE ARTHUR
WILL PASS BY TO OUR EAST ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...PULLING IN DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AS LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 12 AM EDT FRIDAY MORNING...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...CONTINUING TO MONITOR DESTABILIZATION TRENDS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOW SPAWNING A NICE CU
FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOW
STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT IS NOW FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...SBCAPE AND MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG
SHOULD EASILY BE REACHED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...PROVIDING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SYNOPTICALLY A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
NEW YORK...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE WITH
INCREASING INTENSITY AHEAD OF IT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP
TO FURTHER INCREASE DYNAMIC LIFT AMIDST CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH...OR MORE OF A
DIABATIC HEATING BOUNDARY...LOCATED EAST OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK. IT IS HERE WHERE MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR
AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF SIGNAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN 17Z-19Z.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...WITH ALREADY ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
PA...WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH NOW A 30%
CONTOUR FOR WIND FROM INTERSTATE 90 AND LOCATIONS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST ONLY AROUND 6.0
C/KM...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HAIL.
REGARDLESS...TALL AND ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE STILL EXPECTED AS BULK
SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6KM LAYER ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 40-50 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS STORM
ORGANIZATION. EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT TO BE FROM STRAIGHT-
LINE WINDS AS THE SHEAR VECTORS ARE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A TRANSITION FROM INITIALLY DISCRETE
CELLS QUICKLY TO A LINEAR MODE. THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF ALSO
SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...DEVELOPING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION AND
TRACKING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
GIVEN THE MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES IN THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG SHEAR...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED AND LONG
DURATION WIND THREAT. IF A LINE OF ROBUST CONVECTION CAN FORM...A
STRONG COLD POOL MAY DEVELOP AIDED BY STRONG EVAPORATIONAL COOLING
FROM THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED AND A RELATIVELY DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER.
FURTHER EXACERBATING ISSUES IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MUCH
OF THE AREA RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM THE CONVECTION
YESTERDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-3+ INCHES ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 14 KFT AND PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-2.00 INCHES...EXTREMELY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES WILL BE FAVORED WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES
WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUND AND THE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
URBAN AREAS.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
20Z-02Z...AGAIN WITH THE GREATEST THREATS BEING FROM STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRE (OR LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE
ONGOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OR SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT ANOTHER PRE (OR MAYBE THE REAL PRE) WILL
DEVELOPING MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION LATER THIS EVENING...BUT COULD
VERY WELL INCLUDE LITCHFIELD AN PERHAPS THE I-84 WEST INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY.
MEANWHILE A SLOW MOVING COLD WILL REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS
DURING THE EVENING...CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
SLOW SWING THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINING SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAWN.
HURRICANE ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...THEN
MAKE MORE OF A NORTHEASTERN TURN FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD ENSURE
THAT IT WOULD NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING ANY OF OUR REGION.
FOR THE ALL THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS OF ARTHUR INCLUDING
TRACK...INTENSITY AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS...PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC)...AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.
ARTHUR WILL HOWEVER HAVE AN INDIRECT IMPACT ON OUR REGION IN THAT
ONCE IT PASSES BY TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN
NORTHWEST ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO
INFILTRATE THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS LINGERING SHOWERS
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...POSSIBLY SOME STEADIER RAIN IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL STILL HAVE TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY.
WITH TIME...CLOUDS WILL BEING TO DIMINISH...LAST TO HAPPEN IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...AND POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A GUSTY NORTH
OR NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS CLEARING OUT ALLOWING FOR
A COOL NIGHT. A BREEZE COULD PERSIST BUT EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACK PARK.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A TERRIFIC DAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU. IT WILL BE BREEZY BUT WITH
VERY COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. DEEP MIXING AND THE STRONG JULY
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEAR 80 IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN...DESPITE H850
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO A LITTLE BELOW 10C.
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL WITH DIMINISHING WIND SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHEASTWARD...40S WELL
NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE TYPICAL WEATHER FOR
EARLY JULY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL AS EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC AND A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE HAVE A CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS MONDAY WHEN HEATING IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD AS
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THEN...A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. DIFFICULT TO TIME
ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHER THAN A FEW ROGUE SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THE
BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN LATE AFTERNOON AND MID
EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AS ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF TSRA MOVES
THROUGH. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY TSRA. CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION
TSRA WITH IFR IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
POTENTIAL SOLID LINE OF TSRA WITH DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS SWEEPING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 22Z-02Z. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY
KPSF/KPOU AFTER 12Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE DAY WILL START OFF WITH AREAS OF FOG. THEN SOME HAZY SUNSHINE
WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MIDDAY. AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BEGINS
PRESSING INTO THE REGION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IGNITE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE WILL
CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MOST EVERYONE WILL RECEIVE
WELL OVER A QUARTER OF INCH OF RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS QUITE VARIABLE.
SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...LAST TO
DO SO SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE DAY WILL START OUT DAMP AND MURKY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH A
SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE...AND EVEN SOME LEFTOVER STEADY RAIN WELL
SOUTH EAST OF ALBANY. WITH TIME...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD MIX AND RH
VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN ELEVATED
ABOVE 50 PERCENT EVEN AS A BREEZE KICKS FROM THE NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH.
THAT BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE IN MANY PLACES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SKY
CLEARS.
SATURDAY WILL BE A MUCH DRIER DAY WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. RH
VALUES BY AFTERNOON LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 30S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
BE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
SUNDAY LOOKS DRY TOO WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT.
AFTER A RESPITE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE UP
ONCE MORE AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS...ANY THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS WELL OVER 2 INCHES...IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AS PWATS
CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA AS WELL.
SINCE THERE WAS PLENTY OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...THE HIGH PWATS...THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WHAT WE HAVE TODAY COULD BE THE FIRST "PRE"
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ARTHUR (STILL SLATED TO MISS US)...WE
ISSUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE CONFIDENCE WAS AROUND 50 PERCENT
THAT IT WILL HAPPEN SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN VERMONT
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
OUR PROJECTED AVERAGE RIVER BASIN RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY ONLY CAUSE
SOME WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT SOME OF THE STAGES COULD REACH "ACTION
STAGE" ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD TAKE PLACE OVER A
CRITICAL BASIN AREA. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY RIVER
FLOODING.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOWS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1224 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TODAY...AND CONTINUE MOVING NE TOWARDS THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER OUR REGION BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND WIND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD GRAZE THE
EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY.
THE HRRR MODEL INDICATED CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS. THE SPC WRF
INDICATED LESS COVERAGE. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM WILL HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 20 PERCENT WEST TO 40 PERCENT
EAST.
LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO
AROUND 90 WEST ARE WELL ON THEIR WAY TO HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 90S EAST TO THE UPPER 90S WEST.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR WILL ENTER OUR REGION BEHIND ARTHUR AND THE UPPER AND
SURFACE TROUGH....REINFORCED BY ANOTHER DRY SURFACE TROUGH COMING
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE QUITE DRY AIR TO FILTER
IN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO 0.75 TO 1 INCH...AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN INTO THE 50S IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR REGION...WITH GRADUAL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASE...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST
OVER THE SOUTH FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND REMAINDER OF THE FA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID WEEK...THE E CONUS UPPER TROUGH MAY DIG SOME WHILE
A SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MAY PROVIDE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL PARALLEL THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BANDS OF CONVECTION FROM HURRICANE ARTHUR TO
CROSS THE MIDLANDS AFFECTING CAE/CUB/OGB DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
ARTHUR WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE SC COAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING
A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE TAF SITES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM
23Z-04Z.
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING
BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND ARTHUR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NOT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
335 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.
LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME CUMULUS FORMING JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH HAS
MOVED TO THE EAST AND THE SOUTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A LITTLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY TIGHT DURING THE NIGHT
TIME HOURS TONIGHT...SO WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH DURING
THE NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE NAM
AND FOR THE MOST PART THE ECMWF ARE MOSTLY DRY AND THE HRRR HAS
BASICALLY NO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GFS BRINGS IN THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND SPREADS THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER THERE COULD BE ANY
STRONG STORMS WITH THESE. THERE IS AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THAT COULD BRING IN SOME STORMS
THAT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS
WELL. WILL KEEP SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST BUT WITH THE WAVE APPROACHING THERE
COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE WEST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARMING TREND.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
PATTERN: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH VIA MULTI-AGENCY ENSEMBLE MEANS THAT A
LOW TO MODERATELY AMPLITUDE WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WILL
PREVAIL IN THE LONGWAVES FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL SAT-MON...THEN TURNING AT OR A LITTLE BELOW THAN
NORMAL TUE- THU.
ALOFT: A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW AND
SRN PLAINS FRI EVE. A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. IT`S BEST SEEN
WITH DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE TOOLS. BEYOND THAT IT`S ANTICYCLONIC NW FLOW
HERE THRU SUN NIGHT...WITH THE POLAR JET CONFINED TO THE US-CAN
BORDER. UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL RESULT IN RE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE HEIGHTS
TO FALL OVER THE ERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK... DRIVING A COOL FRONT
INTO THE FCST AREA. NW FLOW WILL CONT MON-THU AND IT IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PICK OUT ANY SHORTWAVE TROFS.
SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL SUN. THEN
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION WILL SEND A COOL FRONT THRU HERE DURING THE DAY
SUN. THIS IS 6-12 HRS FASTER THAN WHEN WE LOOKED AT THIS YESTERDAY
...DEPENDENT UPON WHICH MODEL CHOSEN. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER KS MON-THU BUT WILL BE MODULATED AND/OR REINFORCED
BY TSTM ACTIVITY.
HAZARDS: THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME TSTM ACTIVITY FRI NIGHT TO
BE SEVERE. FOLLOW THE SPC OUTLOOKS FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A SLGT
RISK AND THE HWO FROM THIS OFFICE.
THERE IS OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTM OR
TWO SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
OTHER TSTM POTENTIAL EXISTS TUE-THU...BUT NO CONFIDENCE ON POTENCY
OR COVERAGE THIS FAR OUT IN A WEAK FORCING REGIME.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
FRI NIGHT: SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP LATE FRI AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT THEY WILL THREATEN AREAS N AND
W OF THE TRI-CITIES DURING THE EVENING. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01"
QPF SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OR END AS IT MOVES IN. THIS
MAY NOT BE THE END OF THE STORY. IF UPSTREAM STORMS CAN FORM A
COMMON COLD POOL AND PROPAGATE E...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO A MUCH
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH MUCAPE AVERAGING 2000 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AT LEAST 40 KTS. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF WRF-NMM AND
WRF-ARW HI-RES REFLECTIVITY SUGGEST THE IS A POSSIBILITY. WE NEED TO
MONITOR THIS TIME PERIOD FOR SEVERE TSTMS.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER ERN NEB/KS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
LLJ WILL REINTENSIFY...BUT LOW PRES THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES /AND
POSSIBLY THE TROF MOVING THRU HERE/ WILL FORCE THE LEE TROF E OF ITS
CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION. THE EFFECT WILL BE TO SHOVE THE LLJ CORE E
OF THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...REPOSITIONING THE BEST THETA-E
ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE E AS WELL.
SAT: ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS/TSTMS IN THE MORNING DEPART TO THE E.
TURNING HOT AS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FCST AREA CLIMBS INTO THE 90S.
TSTMS WILL FORM AGAIN OUT TO THE W. DO NOT ENVISION ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAKING IT HERE. STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AND
SHIFT TO N.
SUN: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. NOT SURE WE ARE HOT ENOUGH IN THE FCST.
THE COOL FRONT WILL DRAG A VERY HOT THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE FCST
AREA. 100-105F IS ON THE TABLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND S OF HWY 136.
IF THIS OCCURS THEN UPR 90S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE TRI-CITIES.
LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE SUNDAY MISERABLE WITHOUT A/C. DEWPOINTS
POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE 65-71F. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES
TO AROUND 100F OVER S-CNTRL NEB.
THE LLJ SAT NIGHT WILL ADVECT AN EML OVER THE FCST AREA. COMBINED
WITH SUBSIDENCE THIS WILL IMPOSE A FORMIDABLE CAP. SO TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS IFFY LATE AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT.
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...POSSIBLY A LEFT OVER SHWR/TSTM HERE OR
THERE. "IF" A TSTM OR TWO CAN MANAGE TO POP THRU THE CAP...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
...BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE UNDER 20 KTS.
MON: NEAR NORMAL HEAT FOR EARLY JULY...BUT NOTHING EXCESSIVE LIKE
SUN.
MON NIGHT: FOR NOW QPF FROM 00Z/12Z MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL-CLUSTERED
FOR TSTM/MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER NEB/KS. STAYED TUNED. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SOME
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. WE HAVE LOTS OF TIME FOR DETAILS TO EVOLVE.
TUE-THU: SEASONABLE TEMPS AS OF NOW...BUT MODELED TEMPS LOOK TOO
WARM FOR THE 500 MB FLOW. ENSEMBLE TEMP ANOMALIES SUGGEST TEMPS WILL
TREND COOLER THAN NORMAL.
WHILE EVERY LOCATION WILL NOT SEE A TSTM IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME
...THE POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. HOWEVER...
BOTH THE 12Z EC/GEM HAVE A CLEAR SIGNAL THAT A SECONDARY COOL FRONT
WILL SWEEP THRU TUE OR TUE NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...ENOUGH COOL AIR
COULD FORCE THE PREVIOUS FRONT FURTHER S RESULTING IN A DAY OR TWO
WHERE WE COULD REMOVE POPS FROM THE FCST. THIS SCENARIO ALSO
SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF TRENDING COOLER MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THERE IS AN OFF CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. IF IT OCCURS IT COULD CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO
MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL BE ON INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A MUCH HEALTHIER CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS/TOWERING CUMULUS OVER ALL
MOUNTAIN RANGES THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH WEDNESDAY. CLASSIC
THUNDERHEAD STRUCTURE ALSO APPARENT WITH THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS VERY WEAK. CLOCKWISE
STEERING FLOW ALSO QUITE APPARENT AS STORMS OVER NORTHERN NM
MOVING/PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS DRIFTING EAST AND SOUTHEAST RESPECTIVELY. WITH
WEAK STEERING WINDS BEING THE RULE...COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL HAVE TO INITIATE STORMS IN THE BASINS AND VALLEYS THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY RUN WRF MODEL MODEL INDICATING THAT A CLUSTER OF
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THIS EVENING...QUITE POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE SANTA FE AND ABQ METRO
AREAS ALONG WITH EAST MOUNTAIN AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...NAM12 BUFR DATA
INDICATING THAT THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION/CAP OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE BROKEN EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A FEW MORE
HOURS OF ADDITIONAL HEATING...GETTING EASTERN AREAS INTO THE ACT.
SIMILAR SET UP FOR FRIDAY WITH MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING STEERING
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE ELY. TOUGH PART IS GETTING STORMS
TO PROPAGATE OFF THE SMALLER MOUNTAINS RANGES SUCH AS THE SANDIAS
AND MANZANOS INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS AND BASINS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WINDS. FOURTH OF JULY ACTIVITIES IN THE NORTH VALLEY
OF ABQ MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
NAM12 INDICATING SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH STEERING FLOW TAKING STORMS SLOWLY WEST AND NORTHWEST.
VERY DRY AIRMASS AT 500MB WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER HIGH AND OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LIMITING STORM CHANCES
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WESTWARD TO THE MIDDLE RG VALLEY.
BY TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MORE
TRADITIONAL UPPER LEVEL PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL WORK UP
INTO AZ. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SEEP INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NM FOR AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BEYOND DAY SEVEN AS TO THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER HIGH AND WHETHER OR NOT THE MONSOON PLUME
WILL BE CENTERED OVER NM OR AZ.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT GRADUAL DRYING HAS TAKEN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH THE MORNING MOISTURE MIXING OUT.
DESPITE THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL DEVELOPING IN
THIS AREA AND PROVIDE WETTING RAINS...THOUGH A FEW MAY BE ON THE
DRIER SIDE. THIS AND CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY MOVING SSE ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND WSW ACROSS
SW NM. HRRR MODEL INDICATES CONVECTION WILL PERSIST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RGV. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE CAP
BREAKS PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 RUNS...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO POP GRIDS.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE ACROSS THE
DESERT SW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TURNING CLOCKWISE AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN. BY SUNDAY...THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED...BUT FAVOR THE GILA MOUNTAINS. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE
MOIST SFC AND 700MB LEVEL S TO SE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE
WESTERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL DRYING AREAWIDE THROUGH
SUNDAY AND OVERALL DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL
LOWER EACH DAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES WILL DROP AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEY AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND BECOME NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. VENT RATES AND TRANS WINDS
WILL BOTTOM OUT FRIDAY BEFORE IMPROVING THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW NM.
MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING IN THE SETUP OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. USING A BLEND CONCEPT...IT APPEARS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THE HIGH SLIGHTLY WEST...WITH A WEAK
WIND SHIFT AT THE 700 AND 500MB LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING BACK A MORE
MOIST SELY TO SLY TO NEW MEXICO. THIS CONCEPTUAL MODEL ALIGNS WITH
GFS THETA-E RIDGE POSITIONING. BY MONDAY...THE THETA-E RIDGE BECOME
VERTICAL ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER...AND SLOWLY MOVE E WHILE TURNING
CLOCKWISE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS...HIGHER HUMIDITIES...AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL SEE
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THIS PATTERN...OR DIVERGE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. CU WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER N MTS AND WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN...DEVELOPING INTO SCT SHRA AND TSTMS AFTER 1830Z. BRIEF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT POSSIBLE WITH STORMS AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE SSE ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND WSW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. USED HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH
MODEL TO HONE IN ON POTENTIAL TIMING OF STORMS NEAR TERMINAL
SITES...WITH KSAF AND KLVS MOST LIKELY IMPACTED. SIMILAR SETUP AS
YESTERDAY SHOULD YIELD LATE EVENING POTENTIAL STORM ARRIVAL FOR
KABQ AND KAEG. WILL MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND AMEND IF STORMS
DEVELOP CLOSER TO TERMINAL SITES EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTING AT REDUCED VSBYS NEAR KTCC AROUND 09Z...BUT LACK
OF EXPECTED STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA TO INDUCE CATEGORICAL CHANGES
PRECLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP EYE ON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 59 91 62 92 / 20 10 10 10
DULCE........................... 45 87 47 88 / 40 30 30 30
CUBA............................ 51 84 54 87 / 40 40 40 30
GALLUP.......................... 55 87 59 88 / 40 30 30 30
EL MORRO........................ 51 80 53 81 / 50 50 40 50
GRANTS.......................... 52 84 54 85 / 40 40 40 40
QUEMADO......................... 54 80 57 82 / 40 40 40 30
GLENWOOD........................ 51 89 54 89 / 30 20 30 30
CHAMA........................... 44 79 46 81 / 40 50 40 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 81 63 83 / 40 50 40 40
PECOS........................... 55 78 58 80 / 40 40 40 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 50 79 52 80 / 40 40 40 40
RED RIVER....................... 45 70 46 73 / 50 60 40 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 40 75 42 77 / 40 50 50 40
TAOS............................ 50 82 52 84 / 40 40 30 30
MORA............................ 51 78 53 80 / 40 50 50 50
ESPANOLA........................ 55 86 59 88 / 40 30 30 30
SANTA FE........................ 58 82 62 84 / 40 30 40 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 57 86 61 89 / 30 30 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 63 87 66 90 / 30 20 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 89 69 92 / 30 10 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 62 91 65 94 / 30 10 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 65 90 68 93 / 30 10 30 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 59 91 62 93 / 30 10 30 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 64 90 68 93 / 30 10 30 20
SOCORRO......................... 67 92 69 93 / 30 10 20 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 83 58 86 / 40 30 30 30
TIJERAS......................... 57 84 61 87 / 40 30 30 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 85 55 88 / 40 30 30 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 82 58 85 / 40 30 30 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 83 62 86 / 30 20 30 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 63 85 65 87 / 20 20 20 30
RUIDOSO......................... 54 81 56 84 / 30 20 20 40
CAPULIN......................... 56 80 58 83 / 40 30 30 30
RATON........................... 56 84 58 88 / 30 30 30 30
SPRINGER........................ 55 85 57 89 / 30 30 30 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 81 55 83 / 30 40 30 40
CLAYTON......................... 62 89 65 91 / 20 20 30 30
ROY............................. 59 82 61 85 / 30 20 30 40
CONCHAS......................... 65 89 67 91 / 30 20 30 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 87 65 91 / 20 20 30 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 65 91 68 93 / 20 5 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 60 86 62 88 / 20 5 10 10
PORTALES........................ 63 89 65 91 / 20 5 10 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 88 66 91 / 20 10 20 20
ROSWELL......................... 66 91 68 94 / 10 5 10 5
PICACHO......................... 61 85 62 88 / 20 5 10 30
ELK............................. 57 80 59 83 / 20 10 10 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
121 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. CU WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER N MTS AND WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN...DEVELOPING INTO SCT SHRA AND TSTMS AFTER 1830Z. BRIEF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT POSSIBLE WITH STORMS AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE SSE ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND WSW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. USED HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH
MODEL TO HONE IN ON POTENTIAL TIMING OF STORMS NEAR TERMINAL
SITES...WITH KSAF AND KLVS MOST LIKELY IMPACTED. SIMILAR SETUP AS
YESTERDAY SHOULD YIELD LATE EVENING POTENTIAL STORM ARRIVAL FOR
KABQ AND KAEG. WILL MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND AMEND IF STORMS
DEVELOP CLOSER TO TERMINAL SITES EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTING AT REDUCED VSBYS NEAR KTCC AROUND 09Z...BUT LACK
OF EXPECTED STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA TO INDUCE CATEGORICAL CHANGES
PRECLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP EYE ON.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...349 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
FOUR CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...DAILY
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THESE STORMS
WILL GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCARS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY...BUT THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN TRUDGING DOWN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAS BEEN WELL-HANDLED BY THE HRRR THIS MORNING. BEST GUESS IS THAT
IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND
SUNRISE.
AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...IT SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE THAN WEDNESDAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS WORKED OVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND THERE IS LESS CLOUD DEBRIS TO
START OFF THE DAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PUT THE THETA-E AXIS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND THE END OF THE 06Z HRRR RUN
SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. FOR THESE
REASONS...HAVE SHIFTED POPS A BIT NORTHWESTWARD. WITH THE HIGH
CENTER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWESTWARD...BUT VERY SLOWLY. THUS...ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.
ON FRIDAY...THETA-E AXIS GENERALLY FAVORS AN AREA FROM WEST CENTRAL
NM ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND NE NM. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
HIGH WILL GENERALLY BE SQUARE ACROSS THE STATE. VERY LITTLE STEERING
FLOW EXISTS...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE GUIDED MORE BY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT NORTHWARD...WHICH
MEANS THE STEERING FLOW WILL CHANGE TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...AND PERHAPS ALMOST DUE WESTWARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STEER ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
AWAY FROM NM...THUS...WITH NO REAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD A BIT.
LOOKS LIKE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP INTO WESTERN NM ON
MONDAY...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS. THIS SHOULD SPREAD
SOMEWHAT INTO CENTRAL NM BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL BE LIMITED...IF NOT SHUT DOWN
ALTOGETHER...TUES/WED. THIS IS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE HIGH AND COMES BACK WESTWARD
OVER TEXAS.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CONVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE RGV AS OF THIS WRITING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SEEP WESTWARD TOWARDS THE ARIZONA BORDER...AND
24 HR DEW POINT CHANGES RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 DEGREES FROM KGNT WEST AND
NORTHWESTWARD.
THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH FRIDAY...WHERE HIGHEST POPS FORECAST.
DEW POINTS REMAIN FORECAST TO MIX OUT SOMEWHAT NORTHWEST AND FAR
WEST CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...AND TREND STILL ON TRACK FOR
ADDITIONAL DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS CENTRAL AND WEST FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH
THE H5 HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER ERN AZ...STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE A
SLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DRIFT...WHILE FRIDAY COULD SEE RATHER SLOW
AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN BOTH DAYS.
HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH A SLOW
CLIMB TO MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT TREND TOWARDS FAIR BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU. LATE DAY HUMIDITIES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT WON/T FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT MOST
LOCALES. HAINES FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO EVEN POOR SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL TODAY...AND FROM THE WEST CENTRAL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
FRIDAY.
FORECAST MODELS WOBBLE THE UPPER HIGH CENTER AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH FAVORS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH
CENTER MAY ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE FLOW OVER THE NRN US
WEAKENS...BUT FEATURES WHICH WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT FOR NEW MEXICO ARE
NOT DEFINED WELL ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1126 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. CU WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER N MTS AND WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN...DEVELOPING INTO SCT SHRA AND TSTMS AFTER 1830Z. BRIEF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT POSSIBLE WITH STORMS AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE SSE ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND ESE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. USED HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH
MODEL TO HONE IN ON POTENTIAL TIMING OF STORMS NEAR TERMINAL
SITES...WITH KSAF AND KLVS MOST LIKELY IMPACTED. SIMILAR SETUP AS
YESTERDAY SHOULD YIELD LATE EVENING POTENTIAL STORM ARRIVAL FOR
KABQ AND KAEG. WILL MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND AMEND IF STORMS
DEVELOP CLOSER TO TERMINAL SITES EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTING AT REDUCED VSBYS NEAR KTCC AROUND 09Z...BUT LACK
OF EXPECTED STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA TO INDUCE CATEGORICAL CHANGES
PRECLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP EYE ON.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...349 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
FOUR CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...DAILY
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THESE STORMS
WILL GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCARS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY...BUT THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN TRUDGING DOWN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAS BEEN WELL-HANDLED BY THE HRRR THIS MORNING. BEST GUESS IS THAT
IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND
SUNRISE.
AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...IT SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE THAN WEDNESDAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS WORKED OVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND THERE IS LESS CLOUD DEBRIS TO
START OFF THE DAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PUT THE THETA-E AXIS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND THE END OF THE 06Z HRRR RUN
SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. FOR THESE
REASONS...HAVE SHIFTED POPS A BIT NORTHWESTWARD. WITH THE HIGH
CENTER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWESTWARD...BUT VERY SLOWLY. THUS...ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.
ON FRIDAY...THETA-E AXIS GENERALLY FAVORS AN AREA FROM WEST CENTRAL
NM ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND NE NM. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
HIGH WILL GENERALLY BE SQUARE ACROSS THE STATE. VERY LITTLE STEERING
FLOW EXISTS...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE GUIDED MORE BY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT NORTHWARD...WHICH
MEANS THE STEERING FLOW WILL CHANGE TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...AND PERHAPS ALMOST DUE WESTWARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STEER ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
AWAY FROM NM...THUS...WITH NO REAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD A BIT.
LOOKS LIKE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP INTO WESTERN NM ON
MONDAY...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS. THIS SHOULD SPREAD
SOMEWHAT INTO CENTRAL NM BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL BE LIMITED...IF NOT SHUT DOWN
ALTOGETHER...TUES/WED. THIS IS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE HIGH AND COMES BACK WESTWARD
OVER TEXAS.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CONVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE RGV AS OF THIS WRITING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SEEP WESTWARD TOWARDS THE ARIZONA BORDER...AND
24 HR DEW POINT CHANGES RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 DEGREES FROM KGNT WEST AND
NORTHWESTWARD.
THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH FRIDAY...WHERE HIGHEST POPS FORECAST.
DEW POINTS REMAIN FORECAST TO MIX OUT SOMEWHAT NORTHWEST AND FAR
WEST CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...AND TREND STILL ON TRACK FOR
ADDITIONAL DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS CENTRAL AND WEST FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH
THE H5 HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER ERN AZ...STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE A
SLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DRIFT...WHILE FRIDAY COULD SEE RATHER SLOW
AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN BOTH DAYS.
HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH A SLOW
CLIMB TO MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT TREND TOWARDS FAIR BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU. LATE DAY HUMIDITIES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT WON/T FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT MOST
LOCALES. HAINES FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO EVEN POOR SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL TODAY...AND FROM THE WEST CENTRAL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
FRIDAY.
FORECAST MODELS WOBBLE THE UPPER HIGH CENTER AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH FAVORS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH
CENTER MAY ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE FLOW OVER THE NRN US
WEAKENS...BUT FEATURES WHICH WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT FOR NEW MEXICO ARE
NOT DEFINED WELL ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
136 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS NEW YORK WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
LIKELY WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY AND
REMAIN FOR THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115 PM UPDATE... WW 389 (SVR) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CNY/NE
PA THROUGH 01Z. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND PRODUCERS IS STILL
THERE...WITH ML CAPES BLDG INTO THE 1000-1500 RANGE...AND 0-3 KM
SHEAR OF 30-40 KT. A TRANSITION...HOWEVER...MORE TWDS A HEAVY RAIN
SCENARIO IS STILL FORESEEN BY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY IN THE
EVE...AS PER PREV DISC BLO.
PREV DISC... 1030 AM UPDATE... RELATIVELY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE
TO THE SKY COVER/POP/WX GRIDS...BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE.
SAT/RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MRNG SHOWS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDS OVER
CNY/NE PA...WITH MRNG FOG/STRATUS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE. PRIND
STILL ARE THAT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL FIRE UP OVER OUR WRN/NRN ZNS EARLY
THIS AFTN (16-18Z)...WITH COVERAGE GROWING FARTHER E LATER IN THE
DAY (18-20Z AND LATER). OUR LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR OUTPUT SUPPORTS
THIS THINKING WELL.
AS FAR AS POTENTIAL SVR STORMS GO...WE FEEL THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY (MOSTLY 18-21Z)...AS STORMS INITIALLY
FORM...AND ARE ABLE TO PLUG INTO DEEP-LYRD SHEAR (0-3 KM VALUES OF
30-40 KT). STG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS REGARD.
LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVE...HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BECOME THE
GREATER CONCERN...MOSTLY OVER OUR SERN ZNS (NE PA AND THE WRN
CATSKILLS). THE MAIN PLAYERS HERE ARE A STRENGTHENING UPR-LVL JET
TO OUR N FROM LK ONT INTO ONT/QUE...A SLOW MOVING FRNTL BNDRY ACRS
WRN/CNTRL NY...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (WITH INCREASING INPUT
FROM ARTHUR BY EARLY EVE). THE LATEST BLENDED TPW/WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS ARTHUR`S MOISTURE PLUME MERGING INTO THE ALREADY
EXISTING BAND OF FAIRLY HI PWAT AIR ALG THE MID-ATL COAST...AS OF
LATE THIS MRNG. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS LARGER-
SCALE MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN SHOWING BACKING
925-850 MB FLOW...WITH DEEPER TROP MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO ERN
PA/NJ/SERN NY BY 22-02Z. MODEL TRAJS FROM THE LATEST GFS/RAP RUNS
ALSO SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF ARTHUR`S INFLUENCE LIKELY INTO ERN
PA BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME FRAME.
THE ABV DESCRIBED CONFIGURATION OF THE UPR JET CORE...LOW-LVL
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...PWAT...AND A SFC FRNT STILL MATCH THE
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR A "SWLY JET TYPE PRE" (PREDECESSOR RAIN
EVENT) WELL. AS STATED EARLIER...WE THINK THE MAIN FF THREAT IN
OUR CWA WILL BE E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...BUT SINCE THE WATCH IS
PRESENTLY UP AREA-WIDE...AND CONVECTION HAS NOT REALLY SHOWN
ITSELF JUST YET...WE`LL LEAVE THE WATCH AREA AS IS FOR THE TIME
BEING.
OTHERWISE...OUR HIGH TEMP FCST THIS AFTN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE (GENERALLY UPR 70S-MID 80S...WITH SOME UPR 80S IN THE
WYO/LACK VLYS OF NE PA).
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO NY KEEPING TS ARTHUR ON THE
COAST. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL PUSH EAST. THIS WILL PUSH SHOWERS OUT OF THE FAR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRI NGT AS
ARTHUR MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE HIGH. WITH THE CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY PEAK MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S FOR A COLD 4TH.
ON SAT THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BUT
EXTEND NORTH INTO ONTARIO PROVIDING THE OUR CWA WITH DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER FRI NGT TO SAT NGT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY BUT WARMER THAN FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF ACTIVE WEATHER THIS AFTN...MED RNG FSCT
INCORPORATED HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH LOOKED VERY GOOD. PTRN WILL
FAVOR A BROAD UPR TROF WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVG THRU...LEADING TO A
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE WITH A FNTL SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE RGN MON NGT/TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA DVLPNG ACRS THE SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WILL SPREAD
EWD THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVNG...WITH ASSCD MVFR/BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF LATER TNGT. XPCT MVFR TNGT
MANY AREAS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF BR/FG AND LOW CIGS. THE LOWER
CLDS SHUD BREAK UP/IMPRV TO A BKN LOW-END VFR DECK TMRW MRNG.
WINDS THIS AFTN LGT AND RATHER VRBL...XCPTN BEING POTNL FOR G30-40
WITH ANY TSRA. NW WINDS LATER TNGT ARND 5 KTS...INCRSNG TO 10-20
KTS ON FRI MRNG.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NGT THROUGH SUN...VFR.
MON...VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KELM.
MON NGT/TUE...MVFR PSBL IN SCT TSRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
108 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS NEW YORK WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
LIKELY WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY AND
REMAIN FOR THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT
115 PM UPDATE... WW 389 (SVR) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CNY/NE
PA THROUGH 01Z. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND PRODUCERS IS STILL
THERE...WITH ML CAPES BLDG INTO THE 1000-1500 RANGE...AND 0-3 KM
SHEAR OF 30-40 KT. A TRANSITION...HOWEVER...MORE TWDS A HEAVY RAIN
SCENARIO IS STILL FORESEEN BY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY IN THE
EVE...AS PER PREV DISC BLO.
PREV DISC... 1030 AM UPDATE... RELATIVELY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE
TO THE SKY COVER/POP/WX GRIDS...BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE.
SAT/RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MRNG SHOWS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDS OVER
CNY/NE PA...WITH MRNG FOG/STRATUS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE. PRIND
STILL ARE THAT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL FIRE UP OVER OUR WRN/NRN ZNS EARLY
THIS AFTN (16-18Z)...WITH COVERAGE GROWING FARTHER E LATER IN THE
DAY (18-20Z AND LATER). OUR LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR OUTPUT SUPPORTS
THIS THINKING WELL.
AS FAR AS POTENTIAL SVR STORMS GO...WE FEEL THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY (MOSTLY 18-21Z)...AS STORMS INITIALLY
FORM...AND ARE ABLE TO PLUG INTO DEEP-LYRD SHEAR (0-3 KM VALUES OF
30-40 KT). STG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS REGARD.
LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVE...HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BECOME THE
GREATER CONCERN...MOSTLY OVER OUR SERN ZNS (NE PA AND THE WRN
CATSKILLS). THE MAIN PLAYERS HERE ARE A STRENGTHENING UPR-LVL JET
TO OUR N FROM LK ONT INTO ONT/QUE...A SLOW MOVING FRNTL BNDRY ACRS
WRN/CNTRL NY...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (WITH INCREASING INPUT
FROM ARTHUR BY EARLY EVE). THE LATEST BLENDED TPW/WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS ARTHUR`S MOISTURE PLUME MERGING INTO THE ALREADY
EXISTING BAND OF FAIRLY HI PWAT AIR ALG THE MID-ATL COAST...AS OF
LATE THIS MRNG. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS LARGER-
SCALE MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN SHOWING BACKING
925-850 MB FLOW...WITH DEEPER TROP MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO ERN
PA/NJ/SERN NY BY 22-02Z. MODEL TRAJS FROM THE LATEST GFS/RAP RUNS
ALSO SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF ARTHUR`S INFLUENCE LIKELY INTO ERN
PA BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME FRAME.
THE ABV DESCRIBED CONFIGURATION OF THE UPR JET CORE...LOW-LVL
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...PWAT...AND A SFC FRNT STILL MATCH THE
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR A "SWLY JET TYPE PRE" (PREDECESSOR RAIN
EVENT) WELL. AS STATED EARLIER...WE THINK THE MAIN FF THREAT IN
OUR CWA WILL BE E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...BUT SINCE THE WATCH IS
PRESENTLY UP AREA-WIDE...AND CONVECTION HAS NOT REALLY SHOWN
ITSELF JUST YET...WE`LL LEAVE THE WATCH AREA AS IS FOR THE TIME
BEING.
OTHERWISE...OUR HIGH TEMP FCST THIS AFTN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE (GENERALLY UPR 70S-MID 80S...WITH SOME UPR 80S IN THE
WYO/LACK VLYS OF NE PA).
PREV DISC... 630 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. DENSE FOG AND
NO SHOWERS YET. SHOWERS IN WRN NY JUST TO THE NW OF THE CWA WILL
MOVE IN THIS MORNING AS THE INHIBITION BREAKS. FORGOT TO MENTION
BEFORE THAT SPC STILL HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY WIND THEN HAIL AND MAYBE EVEN A
TORNADO. BETTER DEEP SHEAR TODAY BUT CAPE LESS. ALSO WPC HAS US IN
A SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY ONE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHIC. THIS HAS
NOT CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY.
3 AM UPDATE...
CONTINUE TO BE IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM MONTREAL TO DETROIT. THE FRONT WILL
MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THEN STALL IN PA/NY TONIGHT. SOME SUNSHINE WILL
DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE A 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES
INTO WRN NY. THIS UL JET WILL PROVIDE LIFT WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
THE TRIGGER WILL BE AN UL TROF WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES ALSO
MOVING EAST INTO WRN NY. TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL INTENSIFY INTO
A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL HELP
FUNNEL DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF IT WHICH WILL
RUN INTO THE FRONT. THIS WILL SET OFF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH HEAVY RAIN. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP HEAVY RAIN
WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT COULD FALL IN AN HOUR.
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS CAUSED SOME AREAS TO BE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. ALL MODELS SHOWING A WIDE SWATH OF
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CWA.
CONVECTION WILL START OVER WRN NY LATE MORNING AND MOVE SE ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE AFTN. TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVE BUT AS
COLDER AIR COMES IN AND DAYTIME HEATING GETS MIXED TSTORMS WILL
END FROM NW TO SE. ALSO UL DIVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN AS THE JET
STREAK MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL END IN
THE EVE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO NOT BRING THE CWA ANY OF ITS WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO NY KEEPING TS ARTHUR ON THE
COAST. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL PUSH EAST. THIS WILL PUSH SHOWERS OUT OF THE FAR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRI NGT AS
ARTHUR MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE HIGH. WITH THE CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY PEAK MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S FOR A COLD 4TH.
ON SAT THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BUT
EXTEND NORTH INTO ONTARIO PROVIDING THE OUR CWA WITH DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER FRI NGT TO SAT NGT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY BUT WARMER THAN FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
510 AM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS/POPS AS FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FAIR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE BREAKING
DOWN AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER MODESTLY AMPLIFIED TROF MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES BY MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARMER AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THEN RETURN WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR TROF AND COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGES AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY. MONDAY WILL BE THE MARGINAL
DAY...WHICH COULD BE SALVAGED AS A DRY DAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM/HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY MIDDAY ALONG WITH MVFR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THIS EVENING, ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT SATURATED SOILS AND WEAK
MIXING WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE TODAY AROUND
5 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUN...VFR.
MON...VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HURRICAN ARTHUR WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE OUTER
BANKS FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...
CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN HURRICANE ARTHUR WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NC COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND AN
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR
THE NC MOUNTAINS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS ABOUT THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF ARTHUR.
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT STALLED JUST EAST
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A WEAK SURFACE WAVE LOCATED ON THE FRONT NEAR KHKY. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ARTHUR HAS MADE ITS ANTICIPATED NORTHEAST
TURN. LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THE BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BROKE OFF ARTHUR AFTER MIDDAY CONTINUES TO SPILL
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING PER RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS NEAR KEWN AND
KNCA.
RECEIVED MIXED SIGNALS FROM TRADITIONAL NWP AND CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS ABOUT THE PREFERRED PLACEMENT AND TRANSITION OF RAIN BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR. IN GENERAL THE HRRR AND THE NSSL ARW HAVE
HANDLED THIS SYSTEM WELL. THE GENERAL MESSAGE THEY ARE ADVERTISING
IS THAT THE RAIN DISK ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR WILL STAY EAST OF MOST
OF THE RAH CWA BUT IT WILL GRAZE ACROSS SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES
AND PARTS OF WILSON...EDGECOMBE AND PERHAPS CUMBERLAND COUNTIES.
THESE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN...GENERALLY
AROUND AN INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING MORE THAN AN INCH AND
A HALF. THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL DROP EAST AND MAY WORK INTO THE TRIAD LATER THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS BUT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED.
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
THE RAH CWA IN SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES WILL REQUIRE SOME
MONITORING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
ARTHUR REACHES CAPE HATTERAS AT AROUND 400 AM. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE TRIAD TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WITH SKIES BECOMING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON
FRIDAY. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IT
WIL BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER AND DRIER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. -BLAES &&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...AND ACCOMPANYING 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...WILL BUILD ESE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SAT...
THEN OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN. AFTERNOON SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S ON AVG...COMBINED WITH MILD TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE MIDDLE 80S...WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES. CALM AND RELATIVE CLEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF THE
LINGERING SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER NC...WITH PROJECTED LL THICKNESS
VALUES AROUND 1390 METERS...WILL SUPPORT LOWS SUN MORNING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES OR SO IN URBAN AREAS - THOUGH
SHY OF RECORDS FOR THE DATE (6TH) OF 53 DEGREES AT GSO AND 54
DEGREES AT RDU AND FAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY...IN DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE DEPARTING/ BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
TRENDING UP - BUT STILL IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE - WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM THURSDAY...
NC WILL BE IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN CANADA AND A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GOM. THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY BE HELD AT BAY TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC BENEATH THE LOWER HEIGHTS AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A PRONOUNCED LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH -
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUB-TROPICAL SURFACE RIDGING/THE BERMUDA
HIGH - OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE PERIOD WILL BE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK (TUE NIGHT-THU)...
WHEN BOTH 1) OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION TO THE NORTH/NEARER THE
SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE VA BORDER AND 2) NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE TAIL END OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC FLOW TO OUR NORTH COULD GRAZE CENTRAL NC.
THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IN THE MID
LEVELS...INVOF THE FL PENINSULA...IS A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH TO RESULT
IN EXTREME HEAT AT THE LATITUDE OF CENTRAL NC. AS SUCH...HIGHS WILL
LIKELY PEAK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR MOST. LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MULTIPLE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE
ARTHUR WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AT KFAY...KRWI AND KRDU THROUGH
AROUND 04Z. ANOTHER ARE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND THEY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AT KINT AND KGSO THIS
EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE AFTER 02Z. THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND THEN
GENERALLY IMPROVE INTO THE VFR RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
LONG TERM: IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR...FAIR WEATHER WITH NO ADVERSE AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. AN ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. -BLAES
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLAES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HURRICAN ARTHUR WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE OUTER
BANKS FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1150 AM THURSDAY...
COMPLICATED FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS CENTRAL NC REMAINS
BETWEEN HURRICANE ARTHUR WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NC
COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE
INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS
IN THE ANALYSIS NEAR GREENSBORO THAT EXTENDS NORTHEAST. IN
ADDITION...THE MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL REGION OF FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THIS
FEATURE WAS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT
MOVED THROUGH THAT REGION EARLIER TODAY. THE COMPLICATED INTERACTION
OF THESE FEATURES LEADS TI A DIFFICULT FORECAST IN RESOLVING DETAILS
ABOUT WHERE OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL SETUP AND MOVE. AHEAD OF ARTHUR IN
A REGION OF GOOD INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO
THE 87-90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND THE
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT.
LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT BAND OF
SHOWERS HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WHILE A SURGE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. HAVE RECEIVED MIXED SIGNALS FROM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
ABOUT THE PREFERRED PLACEMENT AND TRANSITION OF RAIN BANDS WITH
ARTHUR BUT THE HRRR IN GENERAL HAS HANDLED THIS SYSTEM WELL ALTHOUGH
IT FAILED TO CAPTURE THE EARLY MORNING WESTERN PIEDMONT CONVECTION.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...SHOWERS ROTATING WEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF ARTHUR WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN AND SANDHILLS REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BANDS WILL BE
LOCATED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE...A REGION
TYPICALLY NOT PREFERRED FOR SEVERE CONVECTION OR TORNADOES. ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE THE RAH
CWA IN SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES WILL REQUIRE SOME MONITORING OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST
EAST OF THE NC MOUNTAINS ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN DRIFT EAST. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL SOON BE REALIZED ACROSS CENTRAL NC. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COMPLICATED BY ONGOING OR DEVELOPING CONVECTION AS WELL. IN
GENERAL HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE IN THE 86 TO 92 RANGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. IN
BETWEEN...CONVECTION COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMALIZED ACROSS THE NORTHER
PIEDMONT AND TRIANGLE AREA. WHILE ARTHURS TRACK HAS SHIFTED WEST
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A LONGER PERIOD OF
RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. EXPECT AROUND AND INCH OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN WAYNE AND SAMPSON COUNTIES WITH AMOUNTS
DECREASING TO THE WEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF ARTHUR REACHES
CAPE HATTERAS AT AROUND 400 AM. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE
UPPER 60S IN THE TRIAD TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WITH SKIES BECOMING AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON. A COOLER AIR MASS SPREADS INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET ON FRIDAY WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IT WIL BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER AND
DRIER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...BROAD RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY FOR
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND WITH AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FORECAST BY THE GFS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE DEW POINTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY APPROACH OR...IN SOME LOCATIONS...FALL
SLIGHTLY BELOW 50F SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY
AROUND 60 SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW 50S SPRINKLED IN ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE IN THE DRIER AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
GRADUALLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND THE SURFACE PATTERN BECOMES MORE TYPICAL WITH THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH IN PLACE...MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY WEEKEND FORECAST IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...THEN AS THE MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
START TO FALL...WILL GRADUALLY INTRODUCE AND ALSO INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK. ON MONDAY...THE FORECAST WILL SHOW ONLY A VERY SMALL
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KGSB
TO KFAY NEAR ANY SEA BREEZE AS ALLUDED TO BY THE ECMWF...THEN ON
TUESDAY THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...THOUGH WITH BETTER
CHANCES RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE AREA AGAIN IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE APPROACH OF A FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST
GET CLOSE TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BASED ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA SEEM REASONABLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND...NEAR 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A STEADY RISE IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM NEAR 60 TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT THE END OF
THIS LONG-TERM PERIOD. CERTAINLY DEPENDING ON THE HIGHS AND THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD...A RETURN TO NEAR
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MULTIPLE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE
ARTHUR WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AT KFAY...KRWI AND KRDU THROUGH
AROUND 04Z. ANOTHER ARE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND THEY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AT KINT AND KGSO THIS
EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE AFTER 02Z. THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND THEN
GENERALLY IMPROVE INTO THE VFR RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
LONG TERM: IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR...FAIR WEATHER WITH NO ADVERSE AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. AN ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. -BLAES
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1150 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1150 AM THURSDAY...
COMPLICATED FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS CENTRAL NC REMAINS
BETWEEN HURRICANE ARTHUR WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NC
COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE
INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS
IN THE ANALYSIS NEAR GREENSBORO THAT EXTENDS NORTHEAST. IN
ADDITION...THE MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL REGION OF FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THIS
FEATURE WAS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT
MOVED THROUGH THAT REGION EARLIER TODAY. THE COMPLICATED INTERACTION
OF THESE FEATURES LEADS TI A DIFFICULT FORECAST IN RESOLVING DETAILS
ABOUT WHERE OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL SETUP AND MOVE. AHEAD OF ARTHUR IN
A REGION OF GOOD INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO
THE 87-90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND THE
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT.
LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT BAND OF
SHOWERS HAS WEAKEND CONSIDERABLY WHILE A SURGE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. HAVE RECEIVED MIXED SIGNALS FROM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
ABOUT THE PREFERRED PLACEMENT AND TRANSITION OF RAIN BANDS WITH
ARTHUR BUT THE HRRR IN GENERAL HAS HANDLED THIS SYSTEM WELL ALTHOUGH
IT FAILED TO CAPTURE THE EARLY MORNING WESTERN PIEDMONT CONVECTION.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...SHOWERS ROTATING WEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF ARTHUR WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN AND SANDHILLS REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BANDS WILL BE
LOCATED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE...A REGION
TYPICALLY NOT PREFERRED FOR SEVERE CONVECTION OR TORNADOES. ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE THE RAH
CWA IN SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES WILL REQUIRE SOME MONITORING OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST
EAST OF THE NC MOUNTAINS ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN DRIFT EAST. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL SOON BE REALIZED ACROSS CENTRAL NC. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COMPLICATED BY ONGOING OR DEVELOPING CONVECTION AS WELL. IN
GENERAL HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE IN THE 86 TO 92 RANGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. IN
BETWEEN...CONVECTION COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMALIZED ACROSS THE NORTHER
PIEDMONT AND TRIANGLE AREA. WHILE ARTHURS TRACK HAS SHIFTED WEST
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A LONGER PERIOD OF
RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. EXPECT AROUND AND INCH OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN WAYNE AND SAMPSON COUNTIES WITH AMOUNTS
DECREASING TO THE WEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF ARTHUR REACHES
CAPE HATTERAS AT AROUND 400 AM. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE
UPPER 60S IN THE TRIAD TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WITH SKIES BECOMING AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON. A COOLER AIR MASS SPREADS INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET ON FRIDAY WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IT WIL BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER AND
DRIER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...BROAD RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY FOR
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND WITH AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FORECAST BY THE GFS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE DEW POINTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY APPROACH OR...IN SOME LOCATIONS...FALL
SLIGHTLY BELOW 50F SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY
AROUND 60 SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW 50S SPRINKLED IN ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE IN THE DRIER AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
GRADUALLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND THE SURFACE PATTERN BECOMES MORE TYPICAL WITH THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH IN PLACE...MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY WEEKEND FORECAST IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...THEN AS THE MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
START TO FALL...WILL GRADUALLY INTRODUCE AND ALSO INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK. ON MONDAY...THE FORECAST WILL SHOW ONLY A VERY SMALL
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KGSB
TO KFAY NEAR ANY SEA BREEZE AS ALLUDED TO BY THE ECMWF...THEN ON
TUESDAY THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...THOUGH WITH BETTER
CHANCES RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE AREA AGAIN IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE APPROACH OF A FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST
GET CLOSE TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BASED ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA SEEM REASONABLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND...NEAR 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A STEADY RISE IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM NEAR 60 TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT THE END OF
THIS LONG-TERM PERIOD. CERTAINLY DEPENDING ON THE HIGHS AND THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD...A RETURN TO NEAR
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
PRETTY ACTIVE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
ARTHUR MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST WITH RAINBANDS POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
A LINE OF SHOWERS FORMED A FEW HOURS AGO BETWEEN KRDU AND KGSO AND
CONTINUES TO HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY THERE. AS SOME OF THE OUTER
BANDS OF ARTHUR ARE APPROACHING THE COAST...THIS LINE OF SHOWERS TO
THE WEST HAS BEGUN TO RETROGRADE A BIT AND IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT
KGSO WILL SEE A SHOWER IN THE VICINITY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
THAN WILL KRDU. TAFS ARE CURRENTLY SET UP TO HANDLE THE IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AT EASTERN SITES AND WILL RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z.
AS FAR AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS CONCERNED...MOST SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PLUS OR MINUS 18Z...WHEN
PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE TRIAD AND RAINBANDS FROM
ARTHUR BEGIN AFFECTING EASTERN SITES. ARTHUR WILL PICK UP SPEED
DURING THE EVENING AND MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 25 KTS IN
CONVECTION BUT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIONS...GUSTS SHOULD STAY 20 KTS OR
BELOW.
LONG TERM: ARTHUR WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NO
SIGNIFICANT THREATS TO AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LONG
TERM.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRD/WSS
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
231 PM PDT THU JUL 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED, MARINE STRATUS HELD STRONG WELL INTO
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. AS
OF 2 PM, TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S AT ROSEBURG. CAN
SEE THE STRATUS ERODING AND BECOMING MORE OF A STRATOCUMULUS DECK
TO THE NORTH IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, SO EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR
FARTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON SUCH THAT SKIES TURN OUT PARTLY SUNNY
AT LEAST FOR AWHILE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
CAPPED IN MOST AREAS AND EXPECT THIS IS HOW THEY`LL STAY. HRRR AND
THE NAM12 ARE INDICATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING, PERHAPS
IN NORTHERN WASHOE, NORTHWEST HUMBOLDT OR SOUTHERN HARNEY COUNTY,
BUT SHOULD STAY OUT OF OUR PUBLIC ZONES.
WE`LL HAVE TO DEAL WITH ANOTHER MARINE PUSH TONIGHT, BUT THE
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOWER AND LIKELY WON`T EXTEND
AS FAR INLAND AS LAST NIGHT.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE EAST OF THE
CASCADES. IT`LL ALSO MIX DOWN SIGNFICANTLY DRY AIR. WINDS COMBINED
WITH LOW AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS RESULTED IN THE
ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SEE RFWMFR AND THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR THE SPECIFICS.
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR
HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EAST SIDE AREAS WILL GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S. A
STRONG RIDGE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT BASIN AND THIS WILL ALLOW
HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODEL 850 TEMPS REACH APPROXIMATELY 23-25C MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TO MANY
AREAS.
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WEST OF THE CASCADES
INTO MIDWEEK, BUT IT WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE CASCADES AND EASTWARD BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE
TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH, WHILE SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY INCREASES ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AT THIS POINT, IT`S STILL
EARLY TO SAY WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE WHERE AND WHEN THE BEST CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. BUT, AS IT STANDS, WE HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SPILDE
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 03/18Z TAFS...
MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY...WITH MOST
AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN NOT CLEARING OUT
UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN TO THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT...BUT INLAND SPREAD SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS THIS
MORNING. -BPN
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED THURSDAY 3 JULY 300 PM PDT...
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY AS A
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION AND WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS. THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES INLAND. STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING
SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MODELS SHOW 700MB WINDS INCREASING BETWEEN 25 AND
30 KTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEY SHOW
THE WINDS WEAKENING SOME LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT STILL
REMAINING ELEVATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS NEAR 600 MB ARE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND SOME OF THOSE STRONGER WINDS COULD MIX DOWN
NEAR THE SURFACE. AT THE SAME TIME, VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF INDEPENDENCE DAY FROM THE SHASTA VALLEY
AND UPPER KLAMATH BASIN EASTWARD. NEW STARTS FROM RECENT LIGHTNING
AND FIREWORKS WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE WE`LL REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR
PARTS OF FIRE ZONES 624, 625, 284 AND 285. AT THIS TIME WERE NOT
EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS TO LAST LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND SHASTA VALLEY. A HEAT
WAVE WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT NORTHERN CAL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
-PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ624-625.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ284-285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM
PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ356.
$$
MAS/MAP/RES/BPN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
152 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014
.AVIATION...
BOUNDARY FROM AROUND CLL TO UTS TO BPT LOOKS TO HAVE GONE QUASI-
STATIONARY WHILE STORMS THAT FORM NEAR THE BOUNDARY SAG VERY
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT SMALL CLUSTER NE OF K6R3
ARE THE MAIN PLAYERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT CANT RULE OUT MORE
DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE REGION AS OUTFLOW BECOMES MORE DOMINANT
WITH THIS PULSE ENVIRONMENT. SEA BREEZE IS FINALLY STARTING THE
MARCH INLAND AND TO THE WEST SO ANY COLLISION WITH OUTFLOW FROM
THE STORMS TO THE NORTH COULD EASILY FOCUS STORMS INTO THE HOUSTON
METRO TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VISBY THE PRIMARY THREATS. SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE
REDEVELOPS STORMS TONIGHT/EARLY FRI IN THE NORTH AND PUSHES IT
SOUTH BUT THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE DIFFICULTY/INABILITY WITH WHICH
THESE SAME HAVE CAPTURED THE MESO BOUNDARIES. AM LEANING TOWARD A
MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN COMPONENT HENCE THE STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING
BETWEEN 7-9 PM. SOME PATCHY FOG OR MIFG AGAIN TOWARD MORNING AT
THE RURAL SITES. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS STARTING A LITTLE EARLIER
TOMORROW AND PROBABLY LINED UP FROM CLL-HOU-GLS AS BOUNDARY GETS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR (UNUSUALLY SO LOOKING BACK 30 YEARS)
IN FROM MS/LA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST THIS MORNING...NUDGING DOWN
THE CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND ADJUSTING SKY
CONDITION TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. AMDAR AND MODEL SOUNDING
SUGGEST WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY JUST AS WE DID
YESTERDAY...WITH LIFTED INDICES SHOWING UP AROUND -5 AND CAPES
2000 TO 3000 J/KG ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED (RUNNING
AROUND 90F). ONLY QUESTION IS THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW VERY LITTLE WIND OR WIND SHEAR SO WE SHOULD HAVE SLOW MOVING
ORDINARY CELLS OR PULSE TYPE STORMS AND NOT SO MUCH ORGANIZED
CONVECTION LIKE CLUSTERS OR LINES. THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY
SITUATED OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THINK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND THAT WITH SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK THUNDERSTORMS OFF BEGINNING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EACH CELL WILL CREATE OUTFLOWS WHICH WILL
KILL THE ORIGINAL STORM BUT KICK OFF OTHERS. MOS GUIDANCE IS QUITE
LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 6 HOUR POPS IN MET GUIDANCE FOR IAH ONLY
8 PERCENT AND MAV ONLY 11. THINK THIS MOS GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO
LOW...AND AM FOLLOWING MORE THE SCENARIO SHOWN IN THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE MODELS LIKE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF WITH PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOW THE SCENARIO OUTLINED ABOVE WITH MORE SCATTERED TYPE CONVECTION
IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARIES. COVERAGE SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 20 TO
30 PCT SW COUNTIES TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT NORTHEAST...CLOSEST TO THE
BOUNDARY. 46
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
HEIGHTENED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
90 F ARE MET. GENERALLY WEAKENED RIDGING...WITH AMPLE COLUMN MOISTURE
.WILL PRIME THE SCENE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BEGIN FIRING
ALONG EITHER A NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OR ALONG
THE LOCAL MESOSCALE SEA/BAY BREEZES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THE DOWNSTREAM (RE)GENERATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE LIFT
PROVIDED BY SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW GUST FRONTS OUT OF PRIOR CONVECTION.
AS OF 03/09Z...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE PINEY WOODS
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA IS WHERE THE HIGH REZ SHORT TERM NWP ARE
PROGGING WHERE TODAY`S CONVECTION WILL COMMENCE. EARLY DAY MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 80S
BY LATE MORNING ...INITIATING BLOSSOMING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OF SLOW MOVEMENT PER WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL STEERING
WINDS. ANY NORTHERN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT TRAVELS INTO
EASTERN TEXAS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL ONLY PROVIDE THE SPARK
NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AND INDEPENDENCE DAY CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER THAN 1.75 INCH PWATS
WITHIN A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
INDICES THAT EXCEED CONVECTION-TRIGGERING CRITERIA...DEEP DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AXIS UP THROUGH 500 MB...ARE MORE INDICATIONS THAT MANY COUNTIES
WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF EITHER SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
.AND GUSTY WINDS FROM STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS PAST 7 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO THE MAJORITY OF THE
PYROTECHNICS SHOWS SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL UNDERGO LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED...
WITH THE DIURNAL SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 F ARE ACHIEVED. ANALOG BEHAVIOR TO THE
DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURE SINUSOIDAL CURVE...MEAN LOW-MID 90 F MAXIMUMS
TO AVERAGE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S. LESS CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND COULD PEAK AMBIENT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREAWIDE MIDDLE 90S THAT...WITH
PW`S GREATER THAN 1.3 OR 1.4 INCHES EQUATING TO NEAR 50% RH...WILL
BRIEFLY PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOWER 100S BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM.
KEEP THE UMBRELLA CLOSE OVER THE FOURTH...OBEY LIGHTNING RULES...AND
HAVE WATER NEARBY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STAY SAFE!
MARINE...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY & SEABREEZE WILL PROVIDE TRIGGERS
FOR SOME TSRA TODAY & FRI...MAINLY IN THE BAYS AND INLAND. BUT
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLUSTERS MOVING OFF
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 92 73 95 73 / 20 50 20 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 77 93 74 94 73 / 50 50 20 30 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 88 79 90 78 / 20 40 20 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...45
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
154 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
QUIET SO FAR AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SLUG OF MOISTURE
IMPINGING ON WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WITH SOME CONVECTION FARTHER
TO THE WEST. SHOULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRE
INITIALLY AROUND THE MTNS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH A FEW
POSSIBLY STRAYING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THOUGH HIGHER MOISTURE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A WEAK IMPULSE AIDING IT A BIT. AGAIN THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. TEMPERATURES QUITE
WARM FRIDAY WITH MAXS WELL INTO THE 90S OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS.
EVEN A BIT WARMER SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL TEMPS RISE IN RESPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA WITH MAXS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 100 OVER PARTS OF THE NEB PANHANDLE. WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPS SATURDAY SHOULD ALSO CAP LOWER LEVELS THUS CONVECTION SHOULD
BE MORE LIMITED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AS ADVERTISED THE SEVERAL PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS FOR SUNDAY. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SNOWY RANGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GOING TO BE ANOTHER HOT DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
NEAR 100 AT SCOTTSBLUFF AND NEAR 90 AT RAWLINS.
STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SOLUTIONS FOR POPS NEXT
WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. GFS IS SIMILAR...BUT DRY. DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH OUR
TREND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
MATCHES UP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEIGHBORS TO OUR EAST AND
NORTHEAST. GFS DOES PRODUCE FAIRLY HIGH QPF FOR THE PANHANDLE
MONDAY NIGHT...SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND WE
STAY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ON A DAILY BASIS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A CELL PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE KCYS AIRPORT AFTER 21/22Z.
CONTINUED THE VCTS WORDING AT KLAR AND KCYS. HRRR ALSO SHOWING
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THAT COULD IMPACT KCDR IF IT IS ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH. WENT WITH VCTS WORDING IN THE KCDR TAF AFTER
23Z...RUNNING THROUGH 04Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
CONCERNS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY NON-
CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. MIN HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
CLOSE TO 10 PERCENT OVER WESTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOONS. WIDELY
SCTD TSTRMS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY BUT DRY
LIGHTNING NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1100 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH IT WILL COME INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR TODAY. SFC PRESSURE FALLS ARE INCREASING ACROSS
THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF SOME MIDLEVEL ENERGY
RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE AXIS. WILL SEE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH...WHICH IN
TURN WILL ADVECT IN HIGHER LLVL MOISTURE TO THIS AREA. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP STILL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENT DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 4-7F IN THIS AREA SUGGEST CHANCES OF THIS HAPPENING
ARE RELATIVELY LOW. LOOKING AT DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY. RESULTANT SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL MOVE
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS...IN SPITE OF WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. WITH 500 -
2000 J/KG OF CAPE IN PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST RESPECTIVELY...COULD
SEE A FEW MORE VIGOROUS STORMS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST
TO THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK
THO WITH BULK SHEAR LOOKING TO BE 30 KTS OR LESS...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACTIVITY TO ACHIEVE SEVERE LEVELS. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK LLVL JET DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING SO WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW STORMS CONTINUE THRU MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOIST
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
RIDES THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB ALOFT AS WELL AS AT THE
SURFACE...WITH HIGHS LOOKING REACH THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
THE SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER WAVE
MOVES OVERHEAD...WHILE A WEAK COOL FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A
SOUTHERN RUN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF SFC AND
UPPER FORCING...ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL SPARK
OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING. COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...WITH THE ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN LOOKING TO BE VIGOROUS BUT
DISORGANIZED DUE TO LACK OF SHEAR. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER IN THE
PANHANDLE THRU THE EVENING...OTHERWISE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AS THE UPPER WAVES SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
A FETCH OF MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH CONTINUED WARMER TEMPS. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE COULD BREACH THE CENTURY MARK...WITH PERHAPS ONLY A WEAK
STORM OR TWO TO BRING RELIEF TO THE HEAT IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS LOOK TO ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
A RATHER WARM START TO THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
DOMINATING THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ON SUN. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW
H7 TEMPS BETWEEN 15-17C CONTRIBUTING TO 1000-500 MILLIBAR THICKNESS
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 582 DM. MEDIUM RANGE MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 90S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TO NEAR 100F IN THE LOW
ELEVATIONS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. LIMITING FACTORS FOR ANYTHING
REALLY HOT WILL BE NORTHEAST LLVL FLOW BEHIND A WEAK BACK-DOOR COOL
FRONT AND AFTN CUMULUS. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE CONTINUED TO STAY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS. NOT A PARTICULARLY MOIST PATTERN EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD. THIS BEGINS TO CHANGE
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEST-TO-NORTHWEST MIDLVL FLOW ON EDGE OF A
FLATTENING RIDGE. THE MODELS SHOW A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING
THE FLOW WITH ATTENDANT SHOTS OF MOISTURE VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY FROM
MON ONWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH LLVL UPSLOPE SETTING UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS WOULD PROBABLY BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST WHERE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE A BIT STRONGER...OTHERWISE H5 FLOW LESS THAN 20 KTS WILL PROBABLY
LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EPISODES. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG
STORMS NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE AND CAPES IN BETWEEN
1500 AND 2500 J/KG ADVERTISED BY THE GFS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A CELL PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE KCYS AIRPORT AFTER 21/22Z.
CONTINUED THE VCTS WORDING AT KLAR AND KCYS. HRRR ALSO SHOWING
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THAT COULD IMPACT KCDR IF IT IS ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH. WENT WITH VCTS WORDING IN THE KCDR TAF AFTER
23Z...RUNNING THROUGH 04Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH FUELS CONTINUING TO BE NON-CRITICAL. AFTERNOON MIN
RHS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED IN THIS AREA ON FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND MORESO FOR
FRIDAY OVER MUCH THE DISTRICT. WITH DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WEST...NOT MUCH PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC DOWNDRAFT WINDS IS HIGH.
FURTHER EAST...HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING
FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS HERE. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE
HOT ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR T-STORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...HAMMER
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM