Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/02/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
903 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CAN CELLED EARLY BUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
FROM ROUGHLY FSM TO JUST NORTH OF AWM. SOME STORMS STILL CONTINUE
TO PULSE UP BUT BELIEVE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO WANE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OF GREATER CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AS SOME TRAINING OF STORMS COULD OCCUR AS THE BOUNDARY
SAGS THROUGH. ISODROSOTHERMAL ANALYSIS SHOES CONSIDERABLY DRIER
AIR TO THE NORTH WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. IN FACT... UPPER 60S DEW POINTS NOW SHOWING UP IN NW
ARKANSAS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED ON
CURRENT ACTIVITY....NEXT UPPER WAVE CLEARLY VISIBLE OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND HRRR MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN SPOT ON MOST OF THE NIGHT.
IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A MUCH MORE PLEASANT AIR MASS ON TAP. ALL UPDATES
OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
AVIATION...
SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO MUCH OF WED AS A
FRONT DROPS INTO THE STATE. HAVE MENTIONED PRECIP IN ALL BUT THE NRN
SITES AS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS NRN AR
BEYOND WHAT WAS ALREADY SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE BY WED EVENING...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP DECREASING AREA WIDE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
A FEW STORMS HAVE DVLPD OVR THE PAST FEW HRS ACRS NRN AR. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVG CDFNT...AS WELL AS AIDED
BY AN MCV MOVG EWD ACRS MO. SCTD STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
MAINLY THE NRN THIRD OF THE FA THIS EVENING AS THE FNT DRIFTS SLOLY
SWD. A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.
EXPECT TO SEE A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV TRACKS FURTHER EWD. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED TO FORM TO THE W OF AR LATE THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPR
IMPULSE SHIFTS EWD. THIS ACTIVITY WL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE FA
LATER TNGT AS THE FNTL BNDRY WORKS INTO CNTRL AR.
THE FNT IS FCST TO CONT DROPPING SLOLY SWD ON TUE...EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING S OF AR EARLY TUE EVENING. LEFT SOME LINGERING SMALL CHC
POPS OVR THE SRN AREAS OF FA ON TUE.
HIGH PRES WL BLD INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD...
BRINGING WITH IT AN UNUSUALLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS FOR EARLY
JULY. HIGH TEMPS BY THU AND FRI WL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE LONG TERM LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INITIALLY. BUT
THIS WILL SHIFT WEST TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST...GIVING WAY TO
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...A DISTURBANCE MAY APPROACH NORTHERN
ARKANSAS AND GIVE SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY...BUT
INDICATIONS ARE AT THIS POINT THAT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW.
BETTER CHANCES MAY EXISTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WHATEVER REMAINS OF
THE WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY
ENTERS THE STATE AND WASHES OUT. LEFT BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THE CHANGE IN AIR MASS LATE
THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...ALBEIT NOTABLY
MORE COMFORTABLE THOUGH THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH ONLY LOW 70S
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A MORE
SEASONAL AIR MASS ALONG WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL HAVE
RETURNED TO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 69 86 59 81 / 40 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 74 93 65 88 / 20 30 20 20
HARRISON AR 67 82 56 81 / 40 10 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 74 90 65 84 / 40 20 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 74 90 65 84 / 40 20 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 75 93 66 88 / 20 30 20 10
MOUNT IDA AR 72 89 63 85 / 50 20 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 67 83 57 80 / 40 10 0 10
NEWPORT AR 71 87 60 82 / 40 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 74 90 65 84 / 30 30 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 71 89 61 85 / 40 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 73 88 62 82 / 40 20 10 10
STUTTGART AR 74 89 64 83 / 40 30 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
56
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
151 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND A SLOWLY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR THE AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN MID/HIGH LVL
CLOUDS STILL PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA. PCPN WEAKENING NEARING LOWER
HUDSON...BUT WITH SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA/TSTM THROUGH THE AFTN. WILL
MAINTAIN 20 POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 80 FOR THE COASTAL REGION IN A REPEAT OF
SUNDAYS SEA BREEZE PATTERN. AWAY FROM THE COAST...MID 80S
EXPECTED...THOUGH THIS DEPENDS SOMEWHAT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEW POINTS CONTINUE A SLOW INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES.
HAVE REMOVED THE FOG FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THINKING IS
THAT WE MAY FORM MORE OF A LOW STRATUS CONDITION ALONG THE COAST.
THIS BASED ON LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE. WITH WATER
TEMPS AROUND 70...ADVECTION FOG DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY.
ON TUESDAY...TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM AND HAVE GONE WITH THE
WARMER GFS MOS.
CONTINUED THE 20-30 POP TO THE NW OF NYC WITH SBCAPE IN THE NAM
NEARING 1000 J/KG.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.
EAST COAST RIDGE GIVES WAY TO APPROACHING TROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC DEPARTS AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THEN POPS INCREASE THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE TAPPED AS
TROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LOOKS TO GET PICKED UP BY
SOUTHERLY STEERING WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
ECMWF...GFS SEEM TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
FRONT...AND TROPICAL LOW. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN
BEHIND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS THEREAFTER. HOTTEST DAY THIS
TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF DAYTIME TEMPS. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL READINGS BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EASTWARD.
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KT AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE FROM LATE DAY UNTIL AT LEAST SUNSET AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT.
EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG FOR EASTERN TERMINALS.
NOT SURE JUST HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOW-
END MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20 KT RANGE.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20 KT RANGE.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20 KT RANGE.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20 KT RANGE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON TSTM WITH BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS
AND/OR AND GUSTY WINDS AT KSWF. FOG AND LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CONDS LIKELY LATE AT NIGHT.
.WED...FOG AND LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS BURNING OFF
EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CONDS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM NYC METRO NORTH AND
WEST...SPREADING TO THE COAST IN THE EVENING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES.
.THU-FRI...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH IFR CONDS IN HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES FORECAST ON TRACK FOR TODAY.
SEA BREEZES AGAIN LATE THIS AFTN WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF 15 KT
WITH GUST UP TO 20 KT ON THE WATERS. HIGHEST WOULD BE IN SOUTH OF
THE ROCKAWAYS.
SEA BREEZES ARE STRONGER YET TUESDAY AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY
FRIDAY...WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. NEED TO MONITOR EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION OF A TROPICAL LOW LATE FRIDAY AS IT POSSIBLY APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH.
OCEAN SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SUBSIDE AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT MOST OF FRIDAY...BUT WOULD
LIKELY BUILD LATE IN THE DAY DEPENDING ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR SPECIFIC THREATS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/PW
NEAR TERM...SEARS/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/PW
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1046 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND A SLOWLY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. SPOTTY SHOWERS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INCLUDED ISO SHOWER MENTION FOR LOWER HUDSON FOR MID DAY...WITH
CONTINUING MENTION OF 20 TSTM POP FOR ORANGE COUNTY FOR LATE AFTN
AS A DISSIPATING STORM COULD MAKE IT INTO THAT PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
BROKEN CLOUDS...MENTIONED ABOVE...PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THEN THIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 80 FOR THE COASTAL REGION IN A REPEAT OF
SUNDAYS SEA BREEZE PATTERN. AWAY FROM THE COAST...MID 80S
EXPECTED...THOUGH THIS DEPENDS SOMEWHAT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEW POINTS CONTINUE A SLOW INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES.
HAVE REMOVED THE FOG FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THINKING IS
THAT WE MAY FORM MORE OF A LOW STRATUS CONDITION ALONG THE COAST.
THIS BASED ON LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE. WITH WATER
TEMPS AROUND 70...ADVECTION FOG DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY.
ON TUESDAY...TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM AND HAVE GONE WITH THE
WARMER GFS MOS.
CONTINUED THE 20-30 POP TO THE NW OF NYC WITH SBCAPE IN THE NAM
NEARING 1000 J/KG.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.
EAST COAST RIDGE GIVES WAY TO APPROACHING TROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC DEPARTS AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THEN POPS INCREASE THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE TAPPED AS
TROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LOOKS TO GET PICKED UP BY
SOUTHERLY STEERING WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
ECMWF...GFS SEEM TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
FRONT...AND TROPICAL LOW. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN
BEHIND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS THEREAFTER. HOTTEST DAY THIS
TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF DAYTIME TEMPS. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL READINGS BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD...WITH CONTINUED S-SW FLOW.
VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KT AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
DAY UNTIL AT LEAST SUNSET AT KJFK/KLGA/KISP...AND COULD LAST
LONGER INTO THE EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH THEREAFTER...AND EXPECT
A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-END MVFR OR IFR CONDS LATE TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY S WINDS COULD LAST LONGER INTO THE
EVENING THAN FCST.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY S WINDS COULD LAST LONGER INTO THE
EVENING THAN FCST.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY S WINDS COULD LAST LONGER INTO THE
EVENING THAN FCST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON TSTM WITH BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS
AND/OR AND GUSTY WINDS AT KSWF. FOG AND LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CONDS LIKELY LATE AT NIGHT.
.WED...FOG AND LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS BURNING OFF
EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CONDS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM NYC METRO NORTH AND
WEST...SPREADING TO THE COAST IN THE EVENING.
.THU-FRI...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH IFR CONDS IN HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES FORECAST ON TRACK FOR TODAY.
SEA BREEZES AGAIN LATE THIS AFTN WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF 15 KT
WITH GUST UP TO 20 KT ON THE WATERS. HIGHEST WOULD BE IN SOUTH OF
THE ROCKAWAYS.
SEA BREEZES ARE STRONGER YET TUESDAY AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY
FRIDAY...WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. NEED TO MONITOR EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION OF A TROPICAL LOW LATE FRIDAY AS IT POSSIBLY APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH.
OCEAN SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SUBSIDE AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT MOST OF FRIDAY...BUT WOULD
LIKELY BUILD LATE IN THE DAY DEPENDING ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR SPECIFIC THREATS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/PW
NEAR TERM...SEARS/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
746 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL TRANSFORM INTO A BERMUDA HIGH. A WEAK
WARM FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. IT WILL THEN TURN MORE
HUMID AND HOT MID WEEK WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE RAINFREE ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ALIGN WITH SHRA ACTIVITY WORKINGA CROSS CWA
THIS MORNING.
THE LINE OF SHOWERS WAS THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY WARM
FRONT...REALLY MORE LIKE A DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY LINE OVER CENTRAL
NEW YORK. DEWPOINTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE STILL
GENERALLY IN THE 50S...AND IN SOME CASES...FALLING. TO THE WEST OF
THIS BOUNDARY...THEY HAD RISEN WELL INTO THE 60S.
THE 08Z HRRR STILL INDICATED SHOWER AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY VERY RANDOMLY DISTRIBUTED OVER THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
BETTER...AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER EAST. UP TO 1000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY
IS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. WE HAVE WE PLACED 40 POPS TO
THE NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION...30 CAPITAL REGION...ONLY 20 (LATE)
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
DUE TO A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND THE FRONT
NEARBY...TEMPERATURES TODAY COULD ACTUALLY BE A POINT OR TWO LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY BUT HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UPWARD.
A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...CLOSER TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE THIS EVENING WE LOOSE THE
HEATING. ALSO...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED
TO OUR EAST BY THEN.
WE WILL ULTIMATELY BE LEFT WITH A MUGGY SOMEWHAT HAZY NIGHT. A SOUTH
WIND WILL CONTINUE 5-10 MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A HOT ONE. BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL PUMP A
SOUTHWEST FLOW OUR WAY. THIS FLOW WILL SEND H850 TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR 20C ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF HAZY SUNSHINE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HITTING CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS...LOWER TO MID 80S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE DAY WILL START OUT MAINLY RAINFREE. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO RAMP UP TO WELL OVER 1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WHEN COMBINED WITH A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
SPARKED BY AN UPSTREAM TROUGH...TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE COVERAGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS WIDELY SCATTERED...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES
FORM AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND COULD PULSE BRIEFLY TO SEVERE LIMITS...MAINLY WIND
DAMAGE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONCE AGAIN IT
WILL BE QUITE MUGGY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY STAY AT OR ABOVE 70
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...LOWER TO
MID 60S HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE HOT AGAIN. THIS TIME HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. EITHER THE FRONT...OR MORE LIKELY
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO BE FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE TEMPERATURES COULD ONCE
AGAIN HIT 90 OR A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY...MID OR
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE THAN
CLOUDS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE TIME OF THE PEAK HEATING.
THE COLD FRONT (OR FRONTS) WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL COOL TO THE 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS PARK WHERE THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. FURTHER SOUTH...LOWS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE ATTENTION THIS UPCOMING LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WHAT IF
ANY IMPACTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CWFA FROM THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL
ENTITY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LATEST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THIS TROPICAL ENTITY WILL TRACK OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IN TURN MAY HAVE AN IMPACT WITH A SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. FURTHERMORE...WHILE STILL QUITE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PROCESS...A POTENTIAL "PRE" EVENT MAY UNFOLD FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WE WILL HOLD ONTO
AND EXPAND A BIT THE POPS/WX GRIDS THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE NUMBERS DO LOOK A LITTLE HIGH GIVEN THE
EXPECT CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS WE WILL SHADE
SLIGHTLY COOLER PER THE WPC/ECMWF NUMBERS.
THEREAFTER...A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW /SURFACE HIGH/ SLOWLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION INDEPENDENCE DAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THIS COULD BRING ABOUT THE FIFTH CONSECUTIVE DRY WEEKEND TO THE
REGION AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL EVENT AND
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. AS SUNSHINE INCREASES...SO TOO WILL BE THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOW INVADE THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. REGIONAL RADAR VIEW DEPICTS A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM THE ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY. EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST RADAR REFLECTIVITIES
SUGGEST THIS LINE WILL APPROACH THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TAF
LOCATIONS REMAINS IN A `VCSH` THRESHOLD. OTHERWISE...A VFR DAY
UNFOLDING.
TONIGHT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE OF BR/HZ AND HAVE TRENDED THESE INTO THE TAFS TONIGHT.
THESE REDUCTIONS COULD GET DOWN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10KTS OR LESS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS DID NOT SEE A FULL RECOVERY OVERNIGHT DUE TO A BREEZE AND
HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 50 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
MAYBE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AROUND BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY
NOT PICK UP A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
A NEARLY FULL RECOVERY LIKELY TONIGHT AS IT WILL BE MORE HUMID AND
THE BREEZE ONLY SLIGHT.
HOT TUESDAY WITH MOST VALLEY AREAS APPROACHING OR EVEN ECLIPSING 90
DEGREES. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL AROUND 50 PERCENT ONCE MORE.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON TUESDAY.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE MORE ON...MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY WORK THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED TODAY.
THERE WILL LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND THIS MORNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THESE DO NOT LOOK TO
PRODUCE AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE.
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY. SOME OF THESE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AS
PWATS LOOK TO RAMP TO NEARLY 2 INCHES. ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.
EVEN SO...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR
BELOW A QUARTER INCH. MAJOR RIVERS WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY MINOR RISES
IF THAT.
BY WEDNESDAY...AS COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO THE TROPICAL
AIR...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AND AGAIN CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING.
BY THURSDAY...THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. AT
THE SAME TIME...SOME SORT OF TROPICAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO SPIN UP ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO OUR SOUTH. WHILE ALL MODELS HAVE THE ACTUAL
ENTITY MISSING OUR REGION...A PREDECESSOR RAINFALL EVENT (PRE) IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS QUESTION IS
HOW FAR NORTH THIS PRE WILL GET WHICH COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THURSDAY.
STAY TUNED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL TRANSFORM INTO A BERMUDA HIGH. A WEAK
WARM FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. IT WILL THEN TURN MORE
HUMID AND HOT MID WEEK WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE RAINFREE ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...SHOWERS STILL WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY. THEY
HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE MORE BUT SOME SHOWERS STILL LOOK TO MAKE IT
INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN POINTS EASTWARD (ISOLATED).
TEMPERATURES WERE VERY MILD IN THE 60S...BUT DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE
50S SO NOT THAT MUGGY OUT.
FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS
(INCLUDING POP AND WEATHER).
THE LINE OF SHOWERS WAS THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY WARM
FRONT...REALLY MORE LIKE A DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY LINE OVER CENTRAL
NEW YORK. DEWPOINTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE STILL
GENERALLY IN THE 50S...AND IN SOME CASES...FALLING. TO THE WEST OF
THIS BOUNDARY...THEY HAD RISEN WELL INTO THE 60S.
THE 08Z HRRR STILL INDICATED SHOWER AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY VERY RANDOMLY DISTRIBUTED OVER THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
BETTER...AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER EAST. UP TO 1000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY
IS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. WE HAVE WE PLACED 40 POPS TO
THE NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION...30 CAPITAL REGION...ONLY 20 (LATE)
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
DUE TO A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND THE FRONT
NEARBY...TEMPERATURES TODAY COULD ACTUALLY BE A POINT OR TWO LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY BUT HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UPWARD.
A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...CLOSER TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE THIS EVENING WE LOOSE THE
HEATING. ALSO...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED
TO OUR EAST BY THEN.
WE WILL ULTIMATELY BE LEFT WITH A MUGGY SOMEWHAT HAZY NIGHT. A SOUTH
WIND WILL CONTINUE 5-10 MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A HOT ONE. BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL PUMP A
SOUTHWEST FLOW OUR WAY. THIS FLOW WILL SEND H850 TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR 20C ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF HAZY SUNSHINE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HITTING CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS...LOWER TO MID 80S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE DAY WILL START OUT MAINLY RAINFREE. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO RAMP UP TO WELL OVER 1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WHEN COMBINED WITH A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
SPARKED BY AN UPSTREAM TROUGH...TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE COVERAGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS WIDELY SCATTERED...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES
FORM AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND COULD PULSE BRIEFLY TO SEVERE LIMITS...MAINLY WIND
DAMAGE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONCE AGAIN IT
WILL BE QUITE MUGGY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY STAY AT OR ABOVE 70
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...LOWER TO
MID 60S HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE HOT AGAIN. THIS TIME HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. EITHER THE FRONT...OR MORE LIKELY
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO BE FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE TEMPERATURES COULD ONCE
AGAIN HIT 90 OR A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY...MID OR
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE THAN
CLOUDS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE TIME OF THE PEAK HEATING.
THE COLD FRONT (OR FRONTS) WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL COOL TO THE 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS PARK WHERE THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. FURTHER SOUTH...LOWS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE ATTENTION THIS UPCOMING LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WHAT IF
ANY IMPACTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CWFA FROM THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL
ENTITY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LATEST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THIS TROPICAL ENTITY WILL TRACK OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IN TURN MAY HAVE AN IMPACT WITH A SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. FURTHERMORE...WHILE STILL QUITE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PROCESS...A POTENTIAL "PRE" EVENT MAY UNFOLD FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WE WILL HOLD ONTO
AND EXPAND A BIT THE POPS/WX GRIDS THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE NUMBERS DO LOOK A LITTLE HIGH GIVEN THE
EXPECT CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS WE WILL SHADE
SLIGHTLY COOLER PER THE WPC/ECMWF NUMBERS.
THEREAFTER...A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW /SURFACE HIGH/ SLOWLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION INDEPENDENCE DAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THIS COULD BRING ABOUT THE FIFTH CONSECUTIVE DRY WEEKEND TO THE
REGION AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL EVENT AND
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. AS SUNSHINE INCREASES...SO TOO WILL BE THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOW INVADE THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. REGIONAL RADAR VIEW DEPICTS A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM THE ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY. EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST RADAR REFLECTIVITIES
SUGGEST THIS LINE WILL APPROACH THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TAF
LOCATIONS REMAINS IN A `VCSH` THRESHOLD. OTHERWISE...A VFR DAY
UNFOLDING.
TONIGHT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE OF BR/HZ AND HAVE TRENDED THESE INTO THE TAFS TONIGHT.
THESE REDUCTIONS COULD GET DOWN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10KTS OR LESS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS DID NOT SEE A FULL RECOVERY OVERNIGHT DUE TO A BREEZE AND
HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 50 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
MAYBE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AROUND BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY
NOT PICK UP A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
A NEARLY FULL RECOVERY LIKELY TONIGHT AS IT WILL BE MORE HUMID AND
THE BREEZE ONLY SLIGHT.
HOT TUESDAY WITH MOST VALLEY AREAS APPROACHING OR EVEN ECLIPSING 90
DEGREES. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL AROUND 50 PERCENT ONCE MORE.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON TUESDAY.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE MORE ON...MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY WORK THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED TODAY.
THERE WILL LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND THIS MORNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THESE DO NOT LOOK TO
PRODUCE AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE.
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY. SOME OF THESE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AS
PWATS LOOK TO RAMP TO NEARLY 2 INCHES. ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.
EVEN SO...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR
BELOW A QUARTER INCH. MAJOR RIVERS WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY MINOR RISES
IF THAT.
BY WEDNESDAY...AS COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO THE TROPICAL
AIR...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AND AGAIN CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING.
BY THURSDAY...THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. AT
THE SAME TIME...SOME SORT OF TROPICAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO SPIN UP ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO OUR SOUTH. WHILE ALL MODELS HAVE THE ACTUAL
ENTITY MISSING OUR REGION...A PREDECESSOR RAINFALL EVENT (PRE) IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS QUESTION IS
HOW FAR NORTH THIS PRE WILL GET WHICH COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THURSDAY.
STAY TUNED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
645 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND A SLOWLY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MORNING STRATUS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
EASTERN LOCATIONS. SPOTTY SHOWERS APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
BROKEN CLOUDS...MENTIONED ABOVE...PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THEN THIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE CONTINUED THE 20 TSTM POP FOR ORANGE COUNTY FOR LATE AFTN AS
A DISSIPATING STORM COULD MAKE IT INTO THAT PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 80 FOR THE COASTAL REGION IN A REPEAT OF
SUNDAY`S SEA BREEZE PATTERN. AWAY FROM THE COAST...MID 80S
EXPECTED...THOUGH THIS DEPENDS SOMEWHAT ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEW POINTS CONTINUE A SLOW INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES.
HAVE REMOVED THE FOG FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THINKING IS
THAT WE MAY FORM MORE OF A LOW STRATUS CONDITION ALONG THE COAST.
THIS BASED ON LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE. WITH WATER
TEMPS AROUND 70...ADVECTION FOG DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY.
ON TUESDAY...TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM AND HAVE GONE WITH THE
WARMER GFS MOS.
CONTINUED THE 20-30 POP TO THE NW OF NYC WITH SBCAPE IN THE NAM
NEARING 1000 J/KG.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.
EAST COAST RIDGE GIVES WAY TO APPROACHING TROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC DEPARTS AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THEN POPS INCREASE THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE TAPPED AS
TROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LOOKS TO GET PICKED UP BY
SOUTHERLY STEERING WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
ECMWF...GFS SEEM TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
FRONT...AND TROPICAL LOW. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN
BEHIND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS THEREAFTER. HOTTEST DAY THIS
TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF DAYTIME TEMPS. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL READINGS BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD...WITH CONTINUED S-SW FLOW.
VFR EXCEPT AT KGON...WHERE LOW STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED OVER
INTERIOR SE CT SHOULD SPREAD DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT EXPANSION TO KBDR OR KISP...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CAREFULLY INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KT AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE DAY
INTO EARLY EVENING AT KJFK/KLGA/KISP. WINDS DIMINISH THEREAFTER.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BEFORE 13Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.LATE MON NIGHT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDS ARE
LIKELY AT KGON...AND POSSIBLE AT THE OTHER TERMINALS LATE.
.TUE...CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON TSTM WITH BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS
AND/OR AND GUSTY WINDS AT KSWF. FOG AND LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CONDS LIKELY LATE AT NIGHT.
.WED...FOG AND LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS BURNING OFF
EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CONDS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM NYC METRO NORTH AND
WEST...SPREADING TO THE COAST IN THE EVENING.
.THU-FRI...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH IFR CONDS IN HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SEA BREEZES AGAIN LATE THIS AFTN WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF 15 KT
WITH GUST UP TO 20 KT ON THE WATERS. HIGHEST WOULD BE IN SOUTH OF
THE ROCKAWAYS.
SEA BREEZES ARE STRONGER YET TUESDAY AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY
FRIDAY...WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. NEED TO MONITOR EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION OF A TROPICAL LOW LATE FRIDAY AS IT POSSIBLY APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH.
OCEAN SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SUBSIDE AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT MOST OF FRIDAY...BUT WOULD
LIKELY BUILD LATE IN THE DAY DEPENDING ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR SPECIFIC THREATS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/PW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE/PW
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL TRANSFORM INTO A BERMUDA HIGH. A WEAK
WARM FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. IT WILL THEN TURN MORE
HUMID AND HOT MID WEEK WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE RAINFREE ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...SHOWERS STILL WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY. THEY
HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE MORE BUT SOME SHOWERS STILL LOOK TO MAKE IT
INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN POINTS EASTWARD (ISOLATED).
TEMPERATURES WERE VERY MILD IN THE 60S...BUT DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE
50S SO NOT THAT MUGGY OUT.
FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS
(INCLUDING POP AND WEATHER).
THE LINE OF SHOWERS WAS THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY WARM
FRONT...REALLY MORE LIKE A DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY LINE OVER CENTRAL
NEW YORK. DEWPOINTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE STILL
GENERALLY IN THE 50S...AND IN SOME CASES...FALLING. TO THE WEST OF
THIS BOUNDARY...THEY HAD RISEN WELL INTO THE 60S.
THE 08Z HRRR STILL INDICATED SHOWER AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY VERY RANDOMLY DISTRIBUTED OVER THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
BETTER...AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER EAST. UP TO 1000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY
IS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. WE HAVE WE PLACED 40 POPS TO
THE NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION...30 CAPITAL REGION...ONLY 20 (LATE)
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
DUE TO A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND THE FRONT
NEARBY...TEMPERATURES TODAY COULD ACTUALLY BE A POINT OR TWO LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY BUT HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UPWARD.
A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...CLOSER TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE THIS EVENING WE LOOSE THE
HEATING. ALSO...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED
TO OUR EAST BY THEN.
WE WILL ULTIMATELY BE LEFT WITH A MUGGY SOMEWHAT HAZY NIGHT. A SOUTH
WIND WILL CONTINUE 5-10 MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A HOT ONE. BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL PUMP A
SOUTHWEST FLOW OUR WAY. THIS FLOW WILL SEND H850 TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR 20C ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF HAZY SUNSHINE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HITTING CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS...LOWER TO MID 80S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE DAY WILL START OUT MAINLY RAINFREE. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO RAMP UP TO WELL OVER 1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WHEN COMBINED WITH A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
SPARKED BY AN UPSTREAM TROUGH...TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE COVERAGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS WIDELY SCATTERED...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES
FORM AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND COULD PULSE BRIEFLY TO SEVERE LIMITS...MAINLY WIND
DAMAGE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONCE AGAIN IT
WILL BE QUITE MUGGY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY STAY AT OR ABOVE 70
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...LOWER TO
MID 60S HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE HOT AGAIN. THIS TIME HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. EITHER THE FRONT...OR MORE LIKELY
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO BE FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE TEMPERATURES COULD ONCE
AGAIN HIT 90 OR A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY...MID OR
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE THAN
CLOUDS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE TIME OF THE PEAK HEATING.
THE COLD FRONT (OR FRONTS) WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL COOL TO THE 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS PARK WHERE THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. FURTHER SOUTH...LOWS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE ATTENTION THIS UPCOMING LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WHAT IF
ANY IMPACTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CWFA FROM THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL
ENTITY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LATEST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THIS TROPICAL ENTITY WILL TRACK OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IN TURN MAY HAVE AN IMPACT WITH A SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. FURTHERMORE...WHILE STILL QUITE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PROCESS...A POTENTIAL "PRE" EVENT MAY UNFOLD FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WE WILL HOLD ONTO
AND EXPAND A BIT THE POPS/WX GRIDS THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE NUMBERS DO LOOK A LITTLE HIGH GIVEN THE
EXPECT CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS WE WILL SHADE
SLIGHTLY COOLER PER THE WPC/ECMWF NUMBERS.
THEREAFTER...A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW /SURFACE HIGH/ SLOWLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION INDEPENDENCE DAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THIS COULD BRING ABOUT THE FIFTH CONSECUTIVE DRY WEEKEND TO THE
REGION AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL EVENT AND
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. AS SUNSHINE INCREASES...SO TOO WILL BE THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY SKC/CLR ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS...HOWEVER...AS SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A LOWER PROBABLY FOR
FOG FORMATION AS WE WILL PLACE A VCFG/MIFG IN THE TAFS /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KALB/. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT LESS THAN 5KTS. AS FOR SHOWER POTENTIAL...EXPECTATIONS
REMAIN ALONG A WEAKENING TREND AS THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS EASTS.
A MAINLY CLOUDY...VFR...START DAYLIGHT MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINS LOW AS WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH A VCSH AT THIS TIME. THOSE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BREAK UP BY AFTERNOON. A LIGHTLY SOUTHERLY WIND AT 10KTS OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR BR/HZ TO DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING AND MAY POSE A THREAT FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THU: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS DID NOT SEE A FULL RECOVERY OVERNIGHT DUE TO A BREEZE AND
HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 50 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
MAYBE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AROUND BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY
NOT PICK UP A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
A NEARLY FULL RECOVERY LIKELY TONIGHT AS IT WILL BE MORE HUMID AND
THE BREEZE ONLY SLIGHT.
HOT TUESDAY WITH MOST VALLEY AREAS APPROACHING OR EVEN ECLIPSING 90
DEGREES. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL AROUND 50 PERCENT ONCE MORE.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON TUESDAY.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE MORE ON...MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY WORK THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED TODAY.
THERE WILL LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND THIS MORNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THESE DO NOT LOOK TO
PRODUCE AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE.
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY. SOME OF THESE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AS
PWATS LOOK TO RAMP TO NEARLY 2 INCHES. ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.
EVEN SO...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR
BELOW A QUARTER INCH. MAJOR RIVERS WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY MINOR RISES
IF THAT.
BY WEDNESDAY...AS COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO THE TROPICAL
AIR...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AND AGAIN CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING.
BY THURSDAY...THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. AT
THE SAME TIME...SOME SORT OF TROPICAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO SPIN UP ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO OUR SOUTH. WHILE ALL MODELS HAVE THE ACTUAL
ENTITY MISSING OUR REGION...A PREDECESSOR RAINFALL EVENT (PRE) IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS QUESTION IS
HOW FAR NORTH THIS PRE WILL GET WHICH COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THURSDAY.
STAY TUNED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
515 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL TRANSFORM INTO A BERMUDA HIGH. A WEAK
WARM FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. IT WILL THEN TURN MORE
HUMID AND HOT MID WEEK WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE RAINFREE ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT...A BROKEN LIGHT OF SHOWERS HAS WORKED INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...NAMELY THE ADIRONDACK
PARK. WE HAVE NOT SEEN A SINGLE CLOUD TO LIGHTNING STRIKE ON OUR
WATCH AND THEREFORE FOR NOW...WILL JUST CALL IT SHOWERS. (THE RUC13
INDICATED NO REAL INSTABILITY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS).
THE LINE OF SHOWERS WAS THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY WARM
FRONT...REALLY MORE LIKE A DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY LINE OVER CENTRAL
NEW YORK. DEWPOINTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE STILL
GENERALLY IN THE 50S...AND IN SOME CASES...FALLING. TO THE WEST OF
THIS BOUNDARY...THEY HAD RISEN WELL INTO THE 60S.
THE 06Z HRRR STILL INDICATED SHOWER AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY VERY RANDOMLY DISTRIBUTED OVER THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
BETTER...AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER EAST. UP TO 1000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY
IS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. WE HAVE WE PLACED 40 POPS TO
THE NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION...30 CAPITAL REGION...ONLY 20 (LATE)
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
DUE TO A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND THE FRONT
NEARBY...TEMPERATURES TODAY COULD ACTUALLY BE A POINT OR TWO LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY BUT HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UPWARD.
A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...CLOSER TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE THIS EVENING WE LOOSE THE
HEATING. ALSO...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED
TO OUR EAST BY THEN.
WE WILL ULTIMATELY BE LEFT WITH A MUGGY SOMEWHAT HAZY NIGHT. A SOUTH
WIND WILL CONTINUE 5-10 MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A HOT ONE. BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL PUMP A
SOUTHWEST FLOW OUR WAY. THIS FLOW WILL SEND H850 TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR 20C ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF HAZY SUNSHINE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HITTING CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS...LOWER TO MID 80S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE DAY WILL START OUT MAINLY RAINFREE. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO RAMP UP TO WELL OVER 1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WHEN COMBINED WITH A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
SPARKED BY AN UPSTREAM TROUGH...TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE COVERAGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS WIDELY SCATTERED...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES
FORM AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND COULD PULSE BRIEFLY TO SEVERE LIMITS...MAINLY WIND
DAMAGE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONCE AGAIN IT
WILL BE QUITE MUGGY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY STAY AT OR ABOVE 70
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...LOWER TO
MID 60S HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE HOT AGAIN. THIS TIME HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. EITHER THE FRONT...OR MORE LIKELY
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO BE FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE TEMPERATURES COULD ONCE
AGAIN HIT 90 OR A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY...MID OR
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE THAN
CLOUDS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE TIME OF THE PEAK HEATING.
THE COLD FRONT (OR FRONTS) WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL COOL TO THE 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS PARK WHERE THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. FURTHER SOUTH...LOWS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE ATTENTION THIS UPCOMING LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WHAT IF
ANY IMPACTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CWFA FROM THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL
ENTITY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LATEST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THIS TROPICAL ENTITY WILL TRACK OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IN TURN MAY HAVE AN IMPACT WITH A SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. FURTHERMORE...WHILE STILL QUITE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PROCESS...A POTENTIAL "PRE" EVENT MAY UNFOLD FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WE WILL HOLD ONTO
AND EXPAND A BIT THE POPS/WX GRIDS THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE NUMBERS DO LOOK A LITTLE HIGH GIVEN THE
EXPECT CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS WE WILL SHADE
SLIGHTLY COOLER PER THE WPC/ECMWF NUMBERS.
THEREAFTER...A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW /SURFACE HIGH/ SLOWLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION INDEPENDENCE DAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THIS COULD BRING ABOUT THE FIFTH CONSECUTIVE DRY WEEKEND TO THE
REGION AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL EVENT AND
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. AS SUNSHINE INCREASES...SO TOO WILL BE THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY SKC/CLR ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS...HOWEVER...AS SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A LOWER PROBABLY FOR
FOG FORMATION AS WE WILL PLACE A VCFG/MIFG IN THE TAFS /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KALB/. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT LESS THAN 5KTS. AS FOR SHOWER POTENTIAL...EXPECTATIONS
REMAIN ALONG A WEAKENING TREND AS THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS EASTS.
A MAINLY CLOUDY...VFR...START DAYLIGHT MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINS LOW AS WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH A VCSH AT THIS TIME. THOSE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BREAK UP BY AFTERNOON. A LIGHTLY SOUTHERLY WIND AT 10KTS OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR BR/HZ TO DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING AND MAY POSE A THREAT FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THU: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS DID NOT SEE A FULL RECOVERY OVERNIGHT DUE TO A BREEZE AND
HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 50 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
MAYBE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AROUND BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY
NOT PICK UP A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
A NEARLY FULL RECOVERY LIKELY TONIGHT AS IT WILL BE MORE HUMID AND
THE BREEZE ONLY SLIGHT.
HOT TUESDAY WITH MOST VALLEY AREAS APPROACHING OR EVEN ECLIPSING 90
DEGREES. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL AROUND 50 PERCENT ONCE MORE.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON TUESDAY.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE MORE ON...MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY WORK THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED TODAY.
THERE WILL LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND THIS MORNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THESE DO NOT LOOK TO
PRODUCE AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE.
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY. SOME OF THESE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AS
PWATS LOOK TO RAMP TO NEARLY 2 INCHES. ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.
EVEN SO...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR
BELOW A QUARTER INCH. MAJOR RIVERS WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY MINOR RISES
IF THAT.
BY WEDNESDAY...AS COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO THE TROPICAL
AIR...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AND AGAIN CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING.
BY THURSDAY...THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. AT
THE SAME TIME...SOME SORT OF TROPICAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO SPIN UP ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO OUR SOUTH. WHILE ALL MODELS HAVE THE ACTUAL
ENTITY MISSING OUR REGION...A PREDECESSOR RAINFALL EVENT (PRE) IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS QUESTION IS
HOW FAR NORTH THIS PRE WILL GET WHICH COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THURSDAY.
STAY TUNED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
457 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND A SLOWLY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM...HIGH TO MID CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING AS THEY SPREAD
EAST INTO WESTERN NJ AND WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. PCPN OVER NE PA
HAS DISSIPATED.
BROKEN CLOUDS...MENTIONED ABOVE...PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THEN THIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE CONTINUED THE 20 TSTM POP FOR ORANGE COUNTY FOR LATE AFTN AS
A DISSIPATING STORM COULD MAKE IT INTO THAT PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 80 FOR THE COASTAL REGION IN A REPEAT OF
SUNDAY`S SEA BREEZE PATTERN. AWAY FROM THE COAST...MID 80S
EXPECTED...THOUGH THIS DEPENDS SOMEWHAT ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEW POINTS CONTINUE A SLOW INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES.
HAVE REMOVED THE FOG FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THINKING IS
THAT WE MAY FORM MORE OF A LOW STRATUS CONDITION ALONG THE COAST.
THIS BASED ON LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE. WITH WATER
TEMPS AROUND 70...ADVECTION FOG DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY.
ON TUESDAY...TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM AND HAVE GONE WITH THE
WARMER GFS MOS.
CONTINUED THE 20-30 POP TO THE NW OF NYC WITH SBCAPE IN THE NAM
NEARING 1000 J/KG.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.
EAST COAST RIDGE GIVES WAY TO APPROACHING TROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC DEPARTS AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THEN POPS INCREASE THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE TAPPED AS
TROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LOOKS TO GET PICKED UP BY
SOUTHERLY STEERING WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
ECMWF...GFS SEEM TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
FRONT...AND TROPICAL LOW. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN
BEHIND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS THEREAFTER. HOTTEST DAY THIS
TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF DAYTIME TEMPS. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL READINGS BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD...WITH CONTINUED S-SW FLOW.
VFR EXCEPT AT KGON...WHERE LOW STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED OVER
INTERIOR SE CT SHOULD SPREAD DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT EXPANSION TO KBDR OR KISP...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CAREFULLY INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KT AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE DAY
INTO EARLY EVENING AT KJFK/KLGA/KISP. WINDS DIMINISH THEREAFTER.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BEFORE 13Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.LATE MON NIGHT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDS ARE
LIKELY AT KGON...AND POSSIBLE AT THE OTHER TERMINALS LATE.
.TUE...CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON TSTM WITH BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS
AND/OR AND GUSTY WINDS AT KSWF. FOG AND LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CONDS LIKELY LATE AT NIGHT.
.WED...FOG AND LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS BURNING OFF
EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CONDS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM NYC METRO NORTH AND
WEST...SPREADING TO THE COAST IN THE EVENING.
.THU-FRI...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH IFR CONDS IN HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SEA BREEZES AGAIN LATE THIS AFTN WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF 15 KT
WITH GUST UP TO 20 KT ON THE WATERS. HIGHEST WOULD BE IN SOUTH OF
THE ROCKAWAYS.
SEA BREEZES ARE STRONGER YET TUESDAY AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY
FRIDAY...WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. NEED TO MONITOR EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION OF A TROPICAL LOW LATE FRIDAY AS IT POSSIBLY APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH.
OCEAN SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SUBSIDE AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT MOST OF FRIDAY...BUT WOULD
LIKELY BUILD LATE IN THE DAY DEPENDING ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR SPECIFIC THREATS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/PW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/PW
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
359 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND A SLOWLY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM...HIGH TO MID CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING AS THEY SPREAD
EAST INTO WESTERN NJ AND WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. PCPN OVER NE PA
HAS DISSIPATED.
BROKEN CLOUDS...MENTIONED ABOVE...PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THEN THIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE CONTINUED THE 20 POP TSTM FOR ORANGE COUNTY FOR LATE AFTN AS
A DISSIPATING STORM COULD MAKE IT INTO THAT PART OF FORECAST AREA.
TEMPS ARE NEAR 80 FOR THE COASTAL REGION IS A REPEAT OF SUNDAY`S
SEA BREEZE PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MID 80S EXPECTED...THOUGH THIS DEPENDS SOMEWHAT ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEW POINTS CONTINUE A SLOW INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES.
HAVE REMOVED THE FOG FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THINKING IS
THAT WE MAY FORM MORE OF A STRATUS CONDITION ALONG THE COAST. THIS
BASED ON LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE. WITH WATER TEMPS
AROUND 70...ADVECTION FOG DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY.
ON TUESDAY...TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM AND HAVE GONE WITH THE
WARMER GFS MOS.
CONTINUED THE 20-30 POP TO THE NW OF NYC WITH SBCAPE`S IN THE NAM
NEARING 1000 J/KG.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.
EAST COAST RIDGE GIVES WAY TO APPROACHING TROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC DEPARTS AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THEN POPS INCREASE THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE TAPPED AS
TROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LOOKS TO GET PICKED UP BY
SOUTHERLY STEERING WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
ECMWF...GFS SEEM TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
FRONT...AND TROPICAL LOW. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN
BEHIND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS THEREAFTER. HOTTEST DAY THIS
TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF DAYTIME TEMPS. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL READINGS BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD...WITH CONTINUED S-SW FLOW.
VFR EXCEPT AT KGON...WHICH SHOULD SEE MVFR VSBY DEVELOP LATE WITH
OCNL IFR VSBY.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KT AT THE
COASTAL COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING AT KJFK/KLGA/KISP. WINDS DIMINISH
THEREAFTER.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.LATE MON NIGHT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG LIKELY AT KGON...AND
POSSIBLE AT THE OTHER TERMINALS LATE.
.TUE-WED...MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY FROM NYC METRO AND KBDR NORTH/WEST.
.THU-FRI...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SEA BREEZES AGAIN LATE THIS AFTN WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF 15 KT
WITH GUST UP TO 20 KT ON THE WATERS. HIGHEST WOULD BE IN SOUTH OF
THE ROCKAWAYS.
SEA BREEZES ARE STRONGER YET TUESDAY AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY
FRIDAY...WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. NEED TO MONITOR EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION OF A TROPICAL LOW LATE FRIDAY AS IT POSSIBLY APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH.
OCEAN SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SUBSIDE AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT MOST OF FRIDAY...BUT WOULD
LIKELY BUILD LATE IN THE DAY DEPENDING ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR SPECIFIC THREATS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/PW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/PW
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
829 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH THE MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING IN EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. SO WILL REDUCE THE POPS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY FOR TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL ALSO SEE A SLOW DECREASE IN POPS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL
REMAIN IN A CHANCE CAT.
THE THUNDER THREAT WILL ALSO COME TO AN END OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN PALM
BEACH WATERS TONIGHT...DUE TO THE CLOSENESS OF TROPICAL STORM
ARTHUR. THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR PALM BEACH
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014/
AVIATION...
HIGH OVERCAST ASSOC WITH ARTHUR HAS SUCCEEDED IN SUPPRESSING
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. CURRENT HRRR AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE WRF-ARW/NMM HAVE BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT
SOUTH OF I-75 THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING...NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR VCTS INCLUSION IN TAFS.
EARLY LOOK AT TOMORROW FOCUSES BEST PRECIP CHCS AT
KPBI/KFLL...BUT DECENT W TO SW WIND POSSIBLY DEFEATING THE SEA
BREEZE...AND REMAINING HIGH CANOPY OF CLOUDS ARE LIMITING FACTORS
WITH REGARDS TO VCTS WED AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 91 76 91 / 50 50 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 90 78 92 / 40 40 20 20
MIAMI 77 91 78 92 / 40 40 20 20
NAPLES 78 89 77 90 / 30 40 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
751 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.AVIATION...
HIGH OVERCAST ASSOC WITH ARTHUR HAS SUCCEEDED IN SUPPRESSING
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. CURRENT HRRR AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE WRF-ARW/NMM HAVE BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT
SOUTH OF I-75 THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING...NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR VCTS INCLUSION IN TAFS.
EARLY LOOK AT TOMORROW FOCUSES BEST PRECIP CHCS AT
KPBI/KFLL...BUT DECENT W TO SW WIND POSSIBLY DEFEATING THE SEA
BREEZE...AND REMAINING HIGH CANOPY OF CLOUDS ARE LIMITING FACTORS
WITH REGARDS TO VCTS WED AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 91 76 91 / 40 50 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 90 78 92 / 50 40 20 20
MIAMI 77 91 78 92 / 50 40 20 20
NAPLES 78 89 77 90 / 30 40 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
502 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
...LOW PRESSURE BEING MONITORED FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT
DRIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE (1014
MILLIBARS) CENTERED ABOUT 210 MILES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST.
AUGUSTINE. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...WITH ALL OF THE
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS LARGE
CIRCULATION...OR OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE GULF STREAM WATERS
ADJACENT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
CONVECTION IS LOCATED BEYOND 50 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF THE FLAGLER
COUNTY COASTLINE. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE (1020 MILLIBARS) HAS
RETROGRADED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND IS NOW
CENTERED SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. ALOFT...DEEP-
LAYERED RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S...WHILE ATLANTIC RIDGING NOSES WESTWARD TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. CONVECTION THAT BLOSSOMED DURING THE
LATE EVENING HOURS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA WANED QUICKLY AFTER
CROSSING THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. FAIR SKIES WERE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT
OUR LAND AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES AT 09Z RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID
70S INLAND TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.
.NEAR TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
MOST OF OUR REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFFSHORE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST
FL AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR (PWAT)
VALUES FALLING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG MOST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR TODAY. THE HIGH-RES HRRR MODEL DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS
IMPACTING FLAGLER AND ST. JOHNS COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND INCLUDED ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THESE LOCATIONS. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED IN A RIBBON FROM INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA TO
THE FL BIG BEND...AND WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN
THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH HIGHER CHANCES WEST
OF INTERSTATE 75...WHERE THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
POTENTIALLY ENHANCE ACTIVITY. A FEW WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
POTENTIALLY ENHANCES DOWNDRAFTS. STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 MPH.
OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TIGHTEN...WITH
BREEZY NE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST FL COAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AT THE
COAST...BUT SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INLAND...WITH
HIGHS IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REACHING
THE MID 90S BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TREND OF DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE SHOULD CONTINUE IN THESE
LOCATIONS...WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...KEEPING HEAT
INDICES BELOW 105 DEGREES. EVENING CONVECTION ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-75 CORRIDOR WILL WANE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...WITH A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE AS LOW
PRESSURE EDGES TOWARDS THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO NEAR 80 AT THE
COAST.
.SHORT TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
SYNOPSIS...THE 00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AT
LEAST THE DIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE...BUT THERE
REMAINS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE WEAKER GFS AND THE STRONGER
NAM12/ECMWF. THE MODEL SUITE DRIFTS THE LOW FROM OFFSHORE OF THE
SE FL ATLANTIC COAST TUE NNW ALONG THE FL COASTLINE THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. BY WED MORNING THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE
N-CENTRAL FL ATLANTIC COAST AND THEREAFTER THERE IS MODEL
DISCREPANCIES AS THE GFS ADVERTISED THE LOW BECOME BROAD AND DRIFT
IT INLAND OVER THE AREA INTO A SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS GA.
THE ECMWF/NAM12 SOLUTIONS ADVERTISED THE CLOSED LOW REMAINING
OFFSHORE PARALLELING THE N-FL/GA COAST TOWARD SC THROUGH WED NIGHT
UNTIL IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CARVING OUT ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FOR THIS PACKAGE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ADJACENT MARINE WATERS TUE THROUGH
WED NIGHT AND USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS WIND FIELD BUT CAPPED
WINDS AT 20 KTS OFFSHORE.
TUE & TUE NIGHT...THE DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AND ADVERTISED A LOW 20% CHANCE OF COASTAL SHOWERS
TO START THE DAY UNDER INCREASINGLY BREEZY NNE FLOW ALONG THE
COAST WITH SPEEDS 15-20 MPH. BY MIDDAY ADVERTISED 30-40% CHANCES
OF POSSIBLE FRINGE SQUALLS BRUSHING ALONG THE COAST GENERALLY
SOUTH OF ST AUGUSTINE...WITH INLAND RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE ST
JOHNS BASIN AND OVER SE GA ONLY IN THE 25-30%...WITH HIGH 35-40%
CHANCES WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR TUE EVENING WHERE STRONGEST SEA
BREEZE/OUTFLOW CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR. TUE NIGHT PRECIP DWINDLES
INLAND WHILE THE COAST COULD BE SKIRTED BY PASSING SQUALLS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTHWARD ALONG THE N-CENTRAL FL ATLANTIC COAST. ADVERTISED
RAIN CHANCES OF 40-50% GENERALLY W OF THE INTERSTATE 95 TO 20%
OVER INLAND NE FL TUE NIGHT WITH LESS THAN 10% RAIN CHANCES OVER
INLAND SE GA. TEMPS WILL BE WARM TUE WITH HIGH AGAIN IN THE MID
90S OVER INLAND SE GA AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY..WITH LOW 90S ELSEWHERE INLAND. THE NNE FLOW AND INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE COAST IN THE UPPER 80S. MINS TUE NIGHT WILL
BE MILD UNDER BREEZY NNW WINDS ALONG THE COAST WITH LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S RIVER/COAST TO LOWER 70S FARTHER INLAND.
WED & WED NIGHT...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST TO 60% AS
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NWD OFFSHORE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
WEST SIDE SQUALLS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING OUR COASTAL AREAS. CAPPED
WINDS ALONG THE COAST TO 15-20 MPH FOR NOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30
MPH POSSIBLE. FARTHER INLAND CONVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED BY
DAYTIME HEATING WITH CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ALONG A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING WEST OF THE SFC LOW FROM INLAND NE FL AND WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. CAPPED RAIN CHANCES TO 30-40% FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WED AFTN. TEMPS WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE
MID 90S WELL INLAND OVER SE GA WITH INCREASE CLOUD COVER KEEPING
FL AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS NEAR 90
INLAND MID/UPPER 80S COAST. WED NIGHT THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BEFORE IT IS PICKED UP
BY A DEEPENING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. ADVERTISE OUR PRECIP CHANCES
FADING WITH LOSS OF HEATING INLAND AND KEPT 30-40% CHANCES ALONG
THE COAST AND THE EASTERN HALF OF SE GA AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND
A WAKE TROUGH AXIS LINGERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
AGAIN...THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK/INTENSITY/STRUCTURE OF THE LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST...SO PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS LOWS EVOLUTION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ITS POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ALONG THE SE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD THU WITH A TRAILING WAKE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE 40-50% RANGE
WITH A DOMINANT WEST COAST SEA BREEZE REGIME. WSW STEERING FLOW
WILL CONTINUE FRI WITH THE LINGERING TROUGH AXIS MEANDERING ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT MODELS DIVERGE ON THE MOISTURE FIELDS WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING IN A SWATH OF DRIER AIR AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE GFS KEEPS MOISTURE RELATIVELY
HIGH LOCALLY AND THE LOW NOT AS STRONG TO THE NE OF THE REGION.
OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD CLIMO RAIN CHANCES NEAR 40% UNDER A
PREVAILING WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
OVER SE GA COMPARED TO NE FL AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS RE-
ESTABLISHES OVER THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. NEXT WEEKEND CONTINUED
WITH 30-40% RAIN CHANCES UNDER PREVAILING WSW FLOW...THEN MON
ADVERTISED THE HIGHER CORE OF RAIN CHANCES INLAND BETWEEN I-75 AND
THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN AS THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS LIFTS FARTHER
NORTHWARD UP THE FL PENINSULA WITH SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO VALUES WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S COAST AND MINS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR/BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT VQQ THROUGH
12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT GNV TOWARDS 20Z. TIMING AND INTENSITY REMAIN IN
QUESTION...AND INCLUDED VCTS AT GNV THROUGH 00Z IN THE LATEST TAF
ISSUANCE. NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS
TOWARDS 15Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AT CRG AND SSI THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN BOTH THE NEAR SHORE AND
OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 210 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE THIS MORNING DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WATERS ADJACENT TO EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND TUES. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD...LIKELY MOVING THROUGH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ADJACENT TO NORTHEAST FL ON WED...AND INTO THE OFFSHORE GA
WATERS BY WED NIGHT BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY
FROM OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON TUES/WED DEPENDING ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH SQUALLS ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION
POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR COASTAL WATERS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY...CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS/SEAS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR
REGION.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE AND EASTERLY SWELLS BUILD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 96 72 96 73 / 40 30 30 30
SSI 87 77 88 76 / 10 10 30 30
JAX 91 74 92 74 / 10 10 30 30
SGJ 87 76 88 75 / 20 20 40 40
GNV 94 72 91 72 / 20 20 30 30
OCF 93 72 92 72 / 40 30 40 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
NELSON/ENYEDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
150 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION...
UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1112 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014/
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE WITH
LIMITED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS ACTIVITY
THE BEST IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND THUS NEAR TERM FORECAST UPDATES
WERE TO TREND THE POPS TOWARDS THE HRRR. HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY THE POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO HAVE INCREASED POPS 10-20 PERCENT
ACROSS MANY AREAS IN CENTRAL GA.
HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN OVER A FEW DAYS AND LONG
PERIODS OF RAIN THIS MORNING. STILL AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 339 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014/
LINE OF WEAKENING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE SHORT
WAVE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TODAY REMAINS VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH GEORGIA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE
AND A MODERATE SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER THE TOP ACROSS NORTH AND
EAST GEORGIA. I HAVE CONCENTRATED MY BETTER POPS ACROSS THAT AREA
THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE KEPT THE PERCENTAGES LIMITED TO THE MID TO
HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. HAD A FEW STORMS REACH THE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE LEVEL YESTERDAY AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE SAME
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER I DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AMPLE PRECIP WATER WILL MAKE
HEAVY RAIN/MINOR FLOODING A POSSIBILITY AGAIN AS WELL. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SLOW...GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO TUESDAY... HOWEVER ALL ARE SHOWING A LACK OF THE MID/UPPER-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE FORCING THAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AND ANTICIPATE
TODAY...SO I HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL LESSENING IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE IN MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANYONE WHO GETS SOME EARLY PRECIPITATION. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT ARE
LIKELY TO APPROACH 100-102 ACROSS OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY
AND TUESDAY. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL HAVE
A NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON WHICH AREAS PUSH THE 100 DEGREE HEAT INDEX
LINE EACH AFTERNOON AND BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
TODAY BUT LESS ON TUESDAY.
20
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 339 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014/
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING ITS
GRIP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO AND UPPER TN VALLEY REGIONS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
SAME TIME... THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT... AND DRIFTING
IT NORTHWARD TO JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
LOWER TN VALLEY ON THURSDAY... WHILE IT ALSO SERVES TO LIFT THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD AND ALONG THE SOUTH AND NORTH
CAROLINA COASTS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY... BOTH
MODELS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTH GA WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
SAME TIME... THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
AND TRACKS ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTING FURTHER OUT TO SEA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF
THE GA COASTS ON WEDNESDAY...THEN ALONG THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
WILL WARRANT A CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THEN AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ON FRIDAY... EXPECT ADDED HIGH
PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TO HOLD POPS DOWN TO ISOLATED
NORTH AND MAYBE LOW SCATTERED CENTRAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY. AS A RESULT... EXPECTING A NICE QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.
AS FOR TEMPS... HAVE LEANED CLOSE TO A MEX/HPC BLEND FOR THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH COOLER HIGHS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN OVER
THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. 39
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PASSED THROUGH ATL TAF SITES AND
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS. WITH DEVELOPMENT TO THE NW
OF THE SITES THOUGH...LEAVING IN TEMPO FOR TS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT HOUR...UNLESS ATL
AREA IS AFFECTED BY ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM. POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING...MAINLY AHN AND MCN. CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION TSRA OR SHRA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION...CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TSRA.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 91 70 93 73 / 80 30 20 10
ATLANTA 89 72 92 76 / 60 20 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 84 65 88 69 / 100 20 20 10
CARTERSVILLE 89 68 92 71 / 60 10 20 10
COLUMBUS 93 74 94 76 / 50 40 20 10
GAINESVILLE 88 70 91 74 / 90 20 20 10
MACON 93 70 94 73 / 50 40 20 10
ROME 90 69 92 72 / 70 10 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 90 67 92 70 / 60 20 20 10
VIDALIA 93 73 94 74 / 50 40 30 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1112 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.UPDATE...
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE WITH
LIMITED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS ACTIVITY
THE BEST IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND THUS NEAR TERM FORECAST UPDATES
WERE TO TREND THE POPS TOWARDS THE HRRR. HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY THE POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO HAVE INCREASED POPS 10-20 PERCENT
ACROSS MANY AREAS IN CENTRAL GA.
HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN OVER A FEW DAYS AND LONG
PERIODS OF RAIN THIS MORNING. STILL AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 339 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014/
LINE OF WEAKENING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE SHORT
WAVE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TODAY REMAINS VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH GEORGIA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE
AND A MODERATE SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER THE TOP ACROSS NORTH AND
EAST GEORGIA. I HAVE CONCENTRATED MY BETTER POPS ACROSS THAT AREA
THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE KEPT THE PERCENTAGES LIMITED TO THE MID TO
HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. HAD A FEW STORMS REACH THE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE LEVEL YESTERDAY AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE SAME
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER I DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AMPLE PRECIP WATER WILL MAKE
HEAVY RAIN/MINOR FLOODING A POSSIBILITY AGAIN AS WELL. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SLOW...GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO TUESDAY... HOWEVER ALL ARE SHOWING A LACK OF THE MID/UPPER-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE FORCING THAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AND ANTICIPATE
TODAY...SO I HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL LESSENING IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE IN MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANYONE WHO GETS SOME EARLY PRECIPITATION. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT ARE
LIKELY TO APPROACH 100-102 ACROSS OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY
AND TUESDAY. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL HAVE
A NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON WHICH AREAS PUSH THE 100 DEGREE HEAT INDEX
LINE EACH AFTERNOON AND BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
TODAY BUT LESS ON TUESDAY.
20
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 339 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014/
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING ITS
GRIP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO AND UPPER TN VALLEY REGIONS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
SAME TIME... THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT... AND DRIFTING
IT NORTHWARD TO JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
LOWER TN VALLEY ON THURSDAY... WHILE IT ALSO SERVES TO LIFT THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD AND ALONG THE SOUTH AND NORTH
CAROLINA COASTS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY... BOTH
MODELS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTH GA WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
SAME TIME... THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
AND TRACKS ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTING FURTHER OUT TO SEA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF
THE GA COASTS ON WEDNESDAY...THEN ALONG THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
WILL WARRANT A CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THEN AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ON FRIDAY... EXPECT ADDED HIGH
PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TO HOLD POPS DOWN TO ISOLATED
NORTH AND MAYBE LOW SCATTERED CENTRAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY. AS A RESULT... EXPECTING A NICE QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.
AS FOR TEMPS... HAVE LEANED CLOSE TO A MEX/HPC BLEND FOR THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH COOLER HIGHS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN OVER
THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. 39
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 725 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014/
ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE NEAR THE ATLANTA METRO AND ATHENS TAF SITES AFTER
18Z THROUGH 02Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z IN FOG...MAINLY IN
AREAS THAT SAW HEAVIER RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE...LESS THAN 5KTS...CURRENTLY BUT WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND INCREASE TO 5-10KTS BY 15Z AND AFTER.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 91 70 93 73 / 80 40 20 20
ATLANTA 89 72 92 76 / 50 30 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 84 65 88 69 / 100 40 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 89 68 92 71 / 60 30 20 20
COLUMBUS 93 74 94 76 / 50 20 20 10
GAINESVILLE 88 70 91 74 / 90 40 20 20
MACON 93 70 94 73 / 50 40 20 20
ROME 90 69 92 72 / 70 20 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 90 67 92 70 / 50 20 20 10
VIDALIA 93 73 94 74 / 50 50 30 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
528 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT FOCUS IS WITH THE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION JUST WEST OF
BUREAU COUNTY. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A REAR INFLOW JET
TRYING TO DEVELOP...WHICH COULD FAVOR THIS STORM TO TRANSITION INTO
ANOTHER FORWARD PROPAGATING BOWING SEGMENT WITHIN THE HALF HOUR. IF
THIS DOES OCCUR...THIS BOWING SEGMENT WOULD LIKELY SHIFT EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE I-80 TO I-88 CORRIDORS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE CHICAGO AREA AROUND 7 PM. WE
WILL BE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO LINE UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN
ILLINOIS...AND OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA
IS ALONG THE GRADIENT OF A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WITH
AROUND 5000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 2 INCH PWATS...AS INDICATED FROM
LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING
TO STREAM INTO THIS AREA VIA STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS...CONTINUED
REGENERATION OF STORMS IS LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS...AND
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST...SETTING UP TRAINING STORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY INCREASES THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND AS SUCH...WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD MUCH FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
KJB
&&
.DISCUSSION...
117 PM CDT
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE ON SEVERE
WEATHER TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY. THE SPC HAS EXPANDED THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...WITH
THE FOCUS BEING ON DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70MPH AND LARGE HAIL.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEW POINTS...AND PWAT VALUES ARND 1.5 TO
1.75"...WHATEVER CONVECTION OCCURS COULD BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND AS SUCH WOULD INTRODUCE A
FLOODING CONCERN DESPITE STORMS FORWARD PROPAGATION. WHILE THE
PROBABILITY IS NOT ZERO FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...THE GREATEST FOCUS
FOR THIS WILL BE WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN IOWA. IF WINDS
CAN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST HOWEVER...THIS WOULD INTRODUCE INCREASED
HELICITY TO THE AREA.
THE FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE ACTIVITY PRESENTLY
ONGOING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA. VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS A
BOUNDARY DEPICTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA STRETCHING EAST TO JUST
SOUTH OF MOLINE THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL IL TO
JUST SOUTH OF TERRE HAUTE IN. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY DEW
PTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S...WHILE TO THE NORTH DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE UPR 60S. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO BUMP BACK INTO THE LOW 70S WITH A
SOUTHERLY WIND. THE WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST/EAST EARLY
THIS AFTN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IOWA...AND WITH THE CIRRUS SHIELD
BEGINNING TO THIN OVER EASTERN IOWA EARLY THIS AFTN...THE ATMOSPHERE
SHUD ONLY FURTHER DESTABILIZE.
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS A LINE SEGMENT PUSHING INTO
EASTERN IOWA BY 20-22Z...THEN THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THIS FEATURE ARRIVES ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN ALONG WITH
TIMING. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE
AND UNIDIRECTIONAL MEAN LAYER FLOW...IT DOES SUPPORT THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION THAT ARRIVES ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN IL TO MORPH
INTO A BOWING SEGMENT AND POSSIBLY TRANSITION INTO A DERECHO TYPE
EVENT...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY LEVEL SHOULD QUICKLY LEVEL OFF LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
THE TIMING TO HAVE PUSHED THRU THE CWFA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THEN THE
DRY SLOT ARRIVES...HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO HOLD ONTO SOME LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE REMAINING...SO THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED LATER THIS EVENING
AND GO WTIH A DRY OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LEADING VORT WILL PIVOT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TUE...WITH THE DRY
SLOT STILL BEING PROGGED TO KEEP DRY CONDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THRU THE BULK OF THE DAY TUE. BY MID/LATE AFTN THE MID-LVL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH ANY SFC
DESTABILIZATION...A FEW ISO TSRA COULD DEVELOP FROM THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND COOLING IN THE MID-LVLS. WITH THE FLOW REMAINING
PROGRESSIVE...THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD BY 03Z WED AND SHUD
BRING A QUICK END TO ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWFA
WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING A TRAILING
WEAK TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WED MORNING...WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A CHC FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
WED. WITH CONSIDERABLE SOLAR SHIELDING WED...AND A THERMAL TROUGH OF
6 TO 8 DEG C OVERHEAD...TEMPS COULD STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND 70-74
FOR NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT A FEW POINTS IN
FAR NORTHERN IL THAT REMAIN IN THE UPR 60S WED AFTN.
BROAD TROUGH THEN PUSHES EAST WED NGT...WITH SFC ANTI-CYCLONIC
FEATURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO DRY THE
LOW-LEVELS OUT AND ALLOW WINDS TO TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THEN FOR
THUR THE NORHTERLY DRY FLOW WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S. A LAKE BREEZE LOOKS LIKELY AND COULD KEEP ON
ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE ADJACENT LAKESHORE COMMUNITIIES AND TEMPS IN
THE 60S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROG A RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...ALLOWING A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO BE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES THE WAVE
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX...ALTHOUGH THE MID-LVL TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST BY
SAT/SUN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHUD
ALLOW TEMPS TO SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL CONDS. ALTHOUGH AS THE
WEEKEND PROGRESSES...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN DOES TRANSITION INTO A
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW WITH HEIGHTS STEADILY INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CONUS. TEMPS FOR FRI SHUD CONTINUE TO BE SUB-SEASONAL IN THE 70S
NEAR 80...THEN BACK TO ARND 80 OR LOW 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY
NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN DOES APPEAR TO POINT TOWARDS TEMPS RETURNING
TO LOW/MID 80S. IN ADDITION TO THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW...IT DOES SUPPORT
A QUICK WEST-EAST FLOW OF WEAK WAVES. THIS COULD EASILY BRING A LOW
CHC POPS FOR THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING TERMINALS. ETA 2330 AT ORD AND
2345 AT MDW.
* POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO GUST UP TO 50 KT WITH LEADING EDGE OF THE
LINE.
* POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR VSBYS UNDER HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORM. POOREST
CONDITIONS LAST 20-30 MINUTES. RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER FOR
ANOTHER 2 HOURS AFTER THAT.
* GREATLY DISTURBED WIND FIELD FOLLOWING THE INITIAL LINE OF
STORMS.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS REESTABLISH THEMSELVES AROUND 03Z.
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ONLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS IN PLACE. THIS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER IOWA TRACKS EAST TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS. CURRENTLY MONITORING THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL IOWA
WHICH WILL EITHER BE THE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATER TODAY OR WILL AT LEAST BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH CONFIDENCE DOES EXIST WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...BUT THERE DOES REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
EXACT TIMING. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT
ONE TO TWO HOURS...IT WOULD THEN QUICKLY TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY REACH THEM BEFORE THE TAF TIMES OF AROUND
23Z. IF NOT...THE CURRENT TIME...IF NOT LATER...WOULD BE A MORE
PREFERRED TIMING. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS AND
ADJUST TIMES AS NECESSARY. THESE STORMS DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE...WITH HIGH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH POSSIBLE. NOT
ONLY IS LOWER VIS LIKELY WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MVFR CIGS
ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY AS WELL. DEPARTING COMPLEX LATER THIS
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LINGERING VFR CIGS TONIGHT...WITH A HIGHLY
ERRATIC WIND FIELD LIKELY. DID NOT CONVEY THE POSSIBLE WIND FIELD
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL LIKELY ADD THIS
LATER...BUT WITH SOME TEMPORARY EASTERLY COMPONENT POSSIBLE BEFORE
THEY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND TRENDS DURING FORECAST
PERIOD... EXCEPT LOW CONFIDENCE OF WIND FORECAST FOR 1-2 HOURS
AFTER THUNDERSTORMS.
* HIGH FOR TSRA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING...MEDIUM ON
TIMING.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
303 PM CDT
PRIMARY MARINE CONCERN IS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND SOUTH HALF
THIS EVENING AS AN INTENSE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY HOLDS
TOGETHER AND BRINGS A PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY STRONG WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAVE LEFT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH
HALF UNTIL THIS EVENING. BEFORE CLOUDS MOVED OVERHEAD...VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED A BANK OF FOG COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE LAKE. SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL MAY BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THIS EVENING IN THE NEARSHORE BUT
DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST AN ADVISORY.
HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT WIND CRITERIA BEING MET ON
TUESDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING FROM LAND WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KT OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT GUSTY WINDS MAY
EXTEND A BIT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER
THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY. AN FAIRLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS WITH DIRECTIONS
NEAR THE SHORES CONTROLLED BY LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES BY DAY WILL
ENSUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEST
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032 UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...9 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
525 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...521 PM
THE CURRENT FOCUS IS WITH THE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION JUST WEST OF
BUREAU COUNTY. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A REAR INFLOW JET
TRYING TO DEVELOP...WHICH COULD FAVOR THIS STORM TO TRANSITION INTO
ANOTHER FORWARD PROPAGATING BOWING SEGMENT WITHIN THE HALF HOUR. IF
THIS DOES OCCUR...THIS BOWING SEGMENT WOULD LIKELY SHIFT EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE I-80 TO I-88 CORRIDORS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE CHICAGO AREA AROUND 7 PM. WE
WILL BE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO LINE UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN
ILLINOIS...AND OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA
IS ALONG THE GRADIENT OF A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WITH
AROUND 5000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 2 INCH PWATS...AS INDICATED FROM
LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING
TO STREAM INTO THIS AREA VIA STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS...CONTINUED
REGENERATION OF STORMS IS LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS...AND
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST...SETTING UP TRAINING STORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY INCREASES THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND AS SUCH...WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD MUCH FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
KJB
&&
.DISCUSSION...
117 PM CDT
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE ON SEVERE
WEATHER TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY. THE SPC HAS EXPANDED THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...WITH
THE FOCUS BEING ON DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70MPH AND LARGE HAIL.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEW POINTS...AND PWAT VALUES ARND 1.5 TO
1.75"...WHATEVER CONVECTION OCCURS COULD BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND AS SUCH WOULD INTRODUCE A
FLOODING CONCERN DESPITE STORMS FORWARD PROPAGATION. WHILE THE
PROBABILITY IS NOT ZERO FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...THE GREATEST FOCUS
FOR THIS WILL BE WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN IOWA. IF WINDS
CAN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST HOWEVER...THIS WOULD INTRODUCE INCREASED
HELICITY TO THE AREA.
THE FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE ACTIVITY PRESENTLY
ONGOING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA. VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS A
BOUNDARY DEPICTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA STRETCHING EAST TO JUST
SOUTH OF MOLINE THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL IL TO
JUST SOUTH OF TERRE HAUTE IN. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY DEW
PTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S...WHILE TO THE NORTH DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE UPR 60S. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO BUMP BACK INTO THE LOW 70S WITH A
SOUTHERLY WIND. THE WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST/EAST EARLY
THIS AFTN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IOWA...AND WITH THE CIRRUS SHIELD
BEGINNING TO THIN OVER EASTERN IOWA EARLY THIS AFTN...THE ATMOSPHERE
SHUD ONLY FURTHER DESTABILIZE.
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS A LINE SEGMENT PUSHING INTO
EASTERN IOWA BY 20-22Z...THEN THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THIS FEATURE ARRIVES ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN ALONG WITH
TIMING. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE
AND UNIDIRECTIONAL MEAN LAYER FLOW...IT DOES SUPPORT THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION THAT ARRIVES ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN IL TO MORPH
INTO A BOWING SEGMENT AND POSSIBLY TRANSITION INTO A DERECHO TYPE
EVENT...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY LEVEL SHOULD QUICKLY LEVEL OFF LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
THE TIMING TO HAVE PUSHED THRU THE CWFA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THEN THE
DRY SLOT ARRIVES...HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO HOLD ONTO SOME LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE REMAINING...SO THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED LATER THIS EVENING
AND GO WTIH A DRY OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LEADING VORT WILL PIVOT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TUE...WITH THE DRY
SLOT STILL BEING PROGGED TO KEEP DRY CONDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THRU THE BULK OF THE DAY TUE. BY MID/LATE AFTN THE MID-LVL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH ANY SFC
DESTABILIZATION...A FEW ISO TSRA COULD DEVELOP FROM THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND COOLING IN THE MID-LVLS. WITH THE FLOW REMAINING
PROGRESSIVE...THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD BY 03Z WED AND SHUD
BRING A QUICK END TO ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWFA
WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING A TRAILING
WEAK TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WED MORNING...WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A CHC FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
WED. WITH CONSIDERABLE SOLAR SHIELDING WED...AND A THERMAL TROUGH OF
6 TO 8 DEG C OVERHEAD...TEMPS COULD STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND 70-74
FOR NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT A FEW POINTS IN
FAR NORTHERN IL THAT REMAIN IN THE UPR 60S WED AFTN.
BROAD TROUGH THEN PUSHES EAST WED NGT...WITH SFC ANTI-CYCLONIC
FEATURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO DRY THE
LOW-LEVELS OUT AND ALLOW WINDS TO TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THEN FOR
THUR THE NORHTERLY DRY FLOW WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S. A LAKE BREEZE LOOKS LIKELY AND COULD KEEP ON
ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE ADJACENT LAKESHORE COMMUNITIIES AND TEMPS IN
THE 60S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROG A RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...ALLOWING A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO BE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES THE WAVE
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX...ALTHOUGH THE MID-LVL TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST BY
SAT/SUN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHUD
ALLOW TEMPS TO SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL CONDS. ALTHOUGH AS THE
WEEKEND PROGRESSES...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN DOES TRANSITION INTO A
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW WITH HEIGHTS STEADILY INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CONUS. TEMPS FOR FRI SHUD CONTINUE TO BE SUB-SEASONAL IN THE 70S
NEAR 80...THEN BACK TO ARND 80 OR LOW 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY
NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN DOES APPEAR TO POINT TOWARDS TEMPS RETURNING
TO LOW/MID 80S. IN ADDITION TO THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW...IT DOES SUPPORT
A QUICK WEST-EAST FLOW OF WEAK WAVES. THIS COULD EASILY BRING A LOW
CHC POPS FOR THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WITH INCREASING
SPEEDS/GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
* TSRA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING WITH STRONG/ERRATIC
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORM.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ONLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS IN PLACE. THIS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER IOWA TRACKS EAST TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS. CURRENTLY MONITORING THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL IOWA
WHICH WILL EITHER BE THE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATER TODAY OR WILL AT LEAST BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH CONFIDENCE DOES EXIST WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...BUT THERE DOES REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
EXACT TIMING. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT
ONE TO TWO HOURS...IT WOULD THEN QUICKLY TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY REACH THEM BEFORE THE TAF TIMES OF AROUND
23Z. IF NOT...THE CURRENT TIME...IF NOT LATER...WOULD BE A MORE
PREFERRED TIMING. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS AND
ADJUST TIMES AS NECESSARY. THESE STORMS DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE...WITH HIGH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH POSSIBLE. NOT
ONLY IS LOWER VIS LIKELY WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MVFR CIGS
ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY AS WELL. DEPARTING COMPLEX LATER THIS
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LINGERING VFR CIGS TONIGHT...WITH A HIGHLY
ERRATIC WIND FIELD LIKELY. DID NOT CONVEY THE POSSIBLE WIND FIELD
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL LIKELY ADD THIS
LATER...BUT WITH SOME TEMPORARY EASTERLY COMPONENT POSSIBLE BEFORE
THEY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/GUSTS/DIRECTION DURING
FORECAST PERIOD...LOW CONFIDENCE OF WIND DIRECTION DURING AND
AFTER THUNDERSTORMS.
* HIGH FOR TSRA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING...MEDIUM ON
TIMING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
303 PM CDT
PRIMARY MARINE CONCERN IS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND SOUTH HALF
THIS EVENING AS AN INTENSE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY HOLDS
TOGETHER AND BRINGS A PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY STRONG WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAVE LEFT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH
HALF UNTIL THIS EVENING. BEFORE CLOUDS MOVED OVERHEAD...VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED A BANK OF FOG COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE LAKE. SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL MAY BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THIS EVENING IN THE NEARSHORE BUT
DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST AN ADVISORY.
HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT WIND CRITERIA BEING MET ON
TUESDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING FROM LAND WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KT OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT GUSTY WINDS MAY
EXTEND A BIT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER
THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY. AN FAIRLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS WITH DIRECTIONS
NEAR THE SHORES CONTROLLED BY LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES BY DAY WILL
ENSUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEST
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032 UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...9 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
230 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
229 AM CDT...
THE SUPERCELLULAR STORM WHICH PROMPTED A TORNADO WARNING FOR MCHENRY
COUNTY HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND WITH REGARD TO ROTATION SINCE
ABOUT 210 AM CDT ON THE LOT...MKX...AND TDWRS WITHIN VIEWING RANGE.
THE STORM HAS BECOME MORE OUTFLOW OR REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFT-DRIVEN. IN
ADDITION...NO FURTHER FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS OR ANY INDICATION OF A
TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THUS FAR HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. THUS A NEW TORNADO
WARNING HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED INTO LAKE COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH THIS STORM VERY CLOSELY.
OVERALL STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND AS THEY HAVE HEADED EAST...PARTICULARLY THE BOOKEND
VORTEX AND BOWING STRUCTURE NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 88.
AMDAR DATA DOES INDICATE A LITTLE STRONGER INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS
CHICAGOLAND AND WOULD EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO BE LIMITED EAST OF
CURRENT WATCH...AS WELL AS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN THE CURRENT
WATCH RAIN HAVING DROPPED THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
LIMITING MUCH FOR WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION... 204 PM CDT
TONIGHT...
LINGERING STRATUS CLOUDS FINALLY BURNED OFF LATE THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTN. VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES SOME OF THE CU FIELD WAS BECOMING AGITATED AND TRYING TO
BUILD SOUTH OF I-80 THIS AFTN...WHICH WAS THE REGION WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE WAS AVAILABLE AS DEW POINTS LINGERED ARND 70 TO LOW 70S.
THE STRONGER WAVE WAS STILL WELL WEST OF THE CWFA INTO
CENTRAL/WESTERN IOWA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTN/EVE WILL RESIDE. FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST
IN...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STEADILY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK WARM LAYER ALOFT...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS EXPECTED. WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS AFTN...ALTHOUGH A FEW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
LASALLE TO VALPARAISO COULD STILL TAG 90 THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE TEMPS
SHUD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPR 80S.
THE STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SHOW OR NO-SHOW IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTION. THEN IN WHAT CAPACITY WILL IT ARRIVE ACROSS A PORTION OF
OUR CWFA TONIGHT/EARLY MON. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST WE
ARE SITTING ON ABOUT 2K J/KG OF CAPE...UNFORTUNATELY A WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO A MINIMA THRU AT LEAST
23Z. UPSTREAM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE INHIBITION OVER
CENTRAL IA SHUD BEGIN TO DISSOLVE BY 20-21Z...AND EXPECT AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTIVE GROWTH THERE. LOCAL ARW8KM SOLUTION HAS A SIMILAR WARM
LAYER ALOFT...WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS A CAP AND COULD LINGER TO
ARND 00Z MON TO POSSIBLY 04Z.
UTILIZING THE BUNKER STORM MOTION...IT APPEARS THAT IF CONVECTION
CAN DEVELOP UPSTREAM IT WOULD SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CWFA
THEN TURN SOUTHEAST CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN CWFA. BUT THE QUESTION
REMAINS WILL CONVECTION BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE CWFA
TONIGHT...AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT THIS
LOOKS TO BE CHALLENGING.
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.
MONDAY...
THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE DAY OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. THE TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED IN
THE AFTN/EVE TIMEFRAME. THE DAY SHUD START OFF WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. PROFILES INDICATE STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES BY EARLY AFTN...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A SIZABLE PUSH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT THAT COULD KEEP THINGS CAPPED YET AGAIN THRU
21-22Z MON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE WAVE OVER IOWA ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A MID-LVL TROUGH/VORT TO BE THE FOCAL POINT.
THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AFT
21Z...SO THE TIMING OF LATE AFTN/EVE FOR GREATEST CONVECTIVE GROWTH
AND COVERAGE REMAINS IN PLACE. STORM MOTION MON EVE LOOKS TO BE
PUSHING EAST THEN BEGIN TURNING SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME SPC HAS THE
ENTIRE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK...WITH THE GREATEST HAZARDS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TEMPS MON WILL HINGE UPON THE MORNING CLOUD COVERAGE AND HOW QUICKLY
THAT CAN ERODE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TEMPS SHUD PUSH INTO THE
MID/UPR 80S WITH DEW PTS IN THE LOW 70S. THE COMBINATION WILL CREATE
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID/UPR 90S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRY SLOT QUICKLY ARRIVES BEHIND THE VORT PASSAGE TUE...WHICH SHUD
ALLOW MUCH OF TUE TO BE DRY. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH A MORE ROBUST MID-LVL TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION WED. ANOTHER LOBE OF
VORTICITY IS PROGGED TO PIVOT OVERHEAD WED MORNING...AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC FOR PRECIP. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE GENERAL SHOWERS. FLOW THEN TURNS
NORTHWESTERLY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWFA. TUE
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STILL TAG THE 80S...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM
BEYOND THE LOW/MID 70S WED/THUR. BROAD SFC RIDGE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS
IN WED NGT/THUR...WITH PLEASANT AND LESS HUMID CONDS DEVELOPING.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN MAY BE ADJUSTING FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS. IN CONCERT WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST...THERMAL
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THIS WILL LIKELY AID IN MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO POSSIBLY MID 80S. WHILE IT
LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE CWFA...IT IS POSSIBLE A
WEAK WAVE COULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND GENERATE SOME
LOW CHC POPS.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* TSRA 08Z-10Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
* LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING.
* STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH
MID EVENING.
* TSRA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING WITH STRONG/ERRATIC
WINDS/HEAVY RAIN. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LINE OF TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED AS THEY REACH THE SOUTHERN END OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAIN AND
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. DEPENDING ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION...IT IS
POSSIBLE STRONGEST CELLS MAY MOVE NORTH AND/OR SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS.
DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE LOWER 70S EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE MAINTAINED
MIXED LOW LEVELS AND EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE MID/UPPER
TEEN RANGE UNTIL TSRA ARRIVE. MVFR CIGS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED WITH
THESE MOIST LOW LEVELS. POSSIBLE CIGS MAY DIP TO IFR TOWARD
SUNRISE BUT PREVAILING LOWER MVFR CIGS LOOK ON TRACK THROUGH MID
OR POSSIBLY LATE MORNING.
ONCE THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WEAKENS/MOVES EAST OF THE TERMINALS...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. TSRA EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST OF RFD LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE
COMPLEX OF STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN IL DURING THE
EARLY/MID EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG/ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS. MAINTAINED
TIMING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE BEST TIME
PERIOD...BUT SOME REFINEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LATER FORECASTS.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING
HOURS AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME QUITE STRONG BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 30KTS. NOT TOO
CONFIDENT HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BECOME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
BUT DID BUMP SPEEDS/GUSTS UP A BIT. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH FOR TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING.
* HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING.
* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* HIGH FOR TSRA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING...MEDIUM ON
TIMING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA AND MVFR.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...VFR LIKELY.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
212 PM CDT
UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIES OVER MANITOBA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE ARE HELPING TO KEEP THE WINDS IN
CHECK TO SOME DEGREE...BUT SOME SHIPS HAVE REPORTED WINDS TO
AROUND 30 KT SO FAR TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE MODERATE WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH ON
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. ALSO...DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S HAVE BEEN
TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE. THERE IS NO
CLEAR REASON FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE UNTIL LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE. WILL EXTEND
THE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO BEYOND
THAT EVEN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1233 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
1210 AM CDT
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH A MORE WEST-EAST ORIENTED SEGMENT
IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME BOWING JUST NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS
INCLUDING REGULAR GUSTS ACROSS NORTHWEST IL ARE SUPPORTING OF
SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY AND HAVE SEEN THIS REFLECTED IN RADAR THE
PAST COUPLE HOURS ALONG WITH TWO POTENTIAL TORNADO REPORTS FROM
THE MKX AND DVN CWAS. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY ARE
STRONG...AROUND 25-30 KT AND 200-250 M2/S2 BASED ON THE DVN VAD
PROFILE. SO THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE LOW-
LEVEL ROTATION IN ANY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS WELL AS THE ABILITY
TO STRENGTHEN BOWING SEGMENTS. RADAR TRENDS IN THE PAST HALF HOUR
HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF A LITTLE MORE OUTFLOW DRIVEN STORMS/SEGMENTS
WITHIN THE BROKEN LINE...INDICATING MORE OF A WIND
THREAT...THROUGH SOME REGULARLY MODEST BOOKEND VORTICY SIGNATURES
INCLUDING NEAR THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS STATE LINE NORTH OF ROCKFORD
AND NEAR CLINTON AS OF 1210 AM.
COMPARING VAD PROFILES BETWEEN DMX AND DVN IT IS CLEAR THERE IS A
MID-LEVEL WAVE...LIKELY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED...THAT IS HELPING
TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY ROBUST...ALONG WITH UPPER JET SUPPORT. THIS
WAVE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO MOVE STORMS ALONG EASTWARD...ALONG WITH
THE VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET THOUGH SOME BACKBUILDING HAS BEEN
SEEN. CONVECTION SHOULD STILL SEE A VERY SLOW WEAKENING
TREND...LIKELY MORE SO AS IT NEARS CHICAGO DUE TO A STRONGER
INVERSION. IF HOWEVER CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED WITH A SUSTAINING
COLD POOL...THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE MORE LIKELY
FURTHER EAST THAN CURRENT WATCH.
MTF
&&
.DISCUSSION...
801 PM CDT
ALL ATTENTION THIS EVENING IS FOCUSED ON THE RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA.
IT APPEARS THAT ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER
WEAK...THAT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/MAINTAIN
ITSELF ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF IOWA THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR MY
AREA IS IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BUILD UPSCALE INTO ANY FORWARD
PROPAGATING SEGMENTS. UNFORTUNATELY CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS
POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...THE CORFIDI FORWARD
PROPAGATING VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THE FORWARD PROPAGATING SEGMENTS
WOULD FAVOR A NEARLY DUE EASTERLY MOVEMENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR THIS
ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 00 UTC SOUNDING OUT OF
KDVN INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH
JUST OVER 3800 J/KG OF SBCAPE...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML. ALTHOUGH THIS EML IS
ACTING AS A CAP CURRENTLY...ONCE STORMS EVOLVE EASTWARD...THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL OF OUTFLOW DOMINATE
STORMS...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FORWARD
PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
PRESENCE OF NEARLY 50 KT OF MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.
THE MAIN WILDCARD TO THIS POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT WILL BE IF AND HOW THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI TONIGHT AFFECTS THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT
THE PORTIONS OF MISSOURI WILL RESIDE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED SHORT WAVE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...COULD FAVOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO THRIVE IN MISSOURI TONIGHT. IN RETURN...THIS COULD ACT
TO ROB THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...WHICH COULD CAUSE THEM TO WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHICH SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT...I HAVE CHOSEN
TO NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE GOING POPS AT THIS TIME. OUR
CURRENT FORECAST PLACES THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS FROM 6 TO 9 UTC TONIGHT...WHICH STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES TO LOOK THE GREATEST FOR LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
204 PM CDT
TONIGHT...
LINGERING STRATUS CLOUDS FINALLY BURNED OFF LATE THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTN. VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES SOME OF THE CU FIELD WAS BECOMING AGITATED AND TRYING TO
BUILD SOUTH OF I-80 THIS AFTN...WHICH WAS THE REGION WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE WAS AVAILABLE AS DEW POINTS LINGERED ARND 70 TO LOW 70S.
THE STRONGER WAVE WAS STILL WELL WEST OF THE CWFA INTO
CENTRAL/WESTERN IOWA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTN/EVE WILL RESIDE. FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST
IN...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STEADILY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK WARM LAYER ALOFT...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS EXPECTED. WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS AFTN...ALTHOUGH A FEW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
LASALLE TO VALPARAISO COULD STILL TAG 90 THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE TEMPS
SHUD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPR 80S.
THE STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SHOW OR NO-SHOW IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTION. THEN IN WHAT CAPACITY WILL IT ARRIVE ACROSS A PORTION OF
OUR CWFA TONIGHT/EARLY MON. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST WE
ARE SITTING ON ABOUT 2K J/KG OF CAPE...UNFORTUNATELY A WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO A MINIMA THRU AT LEAST
23Z. UPSTREAM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE INHIBITION OVER
CENTRAL IA SHUD BEGIN TO DISSOLVE BY 20-21Z...AND EXPECT AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTIVE GROWTH THERE. LOCAL ARW8KM SOLUTION HAS A SIMILAR WARM
LAYER ALOFT...WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS A CAP AND COULD LINGER TO
ARND 00Z MON TO POSSIBLY 04Z.
UTILIZING THE BUNKER STORM MOTION...IT APPEARS THAT IF CONVECTION
CAN DEVELOP UPSTREAM IT WOULD SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CWFA
THEN TURN SOUTHEAST CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN CWFA. BUT THE QUESTION
REMAINS WILL CONVECTION BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE CWFA
TONIGHT...AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT THIS
LOOKS TO BE CHALLENGING.
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.
MONDAY...
THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE DAY OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. THE TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED IN
THE AFTN/EVE TIMEFRAME. THE DAY SHUD START OFF WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. PROFILES INDICATE STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES BY EARLY AFTN...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A SIZABLE PUSH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT THAT COULD KEEP THINGS CAPPED YET AGAIN THRU
21-22Z MON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE WAVE OVER IOWA ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A MID-LVL TROUGH/VORT TO BE THE FOCAL POINT.
THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AFT
21Z...SO THE TIMING OF LATE AFTN/EVE FOR GREATEST CONVECTIVE GROWTH
AND COVERAGE REMAINS IN PLACE. STORM MOTION MON EVE LOOKS TO BE
PUSHING EAST THEN BEGIN TURNING SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME SPC HAS THE
ENTIRE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK...WITH THE GREATEST HAZARDS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TEMPS MON WILL HINGE UPON THE MORNING CLOUD COVERAGE AND HOW QUICKLY
THAT CAN ERODE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TEMPS SHUD PUSH INTO THE
MID/UPR 80S WITH DEW PTS IN THE LOW 70S. THE COMBINATION WILL CREATE
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID/UPR 90S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRY SLOT QUICKLY ARRIVES BEHIND THE VORT PASSAGE TUE...WHICH SHUD
ALLOW MUCH OF TUE TO BE DRY. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH A MORE ROBUST MID-LVL TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION WED. ANOTHER LOBE OF
VORTICITY IS PROGGED TO PIVOT OVERHEAD WED MORNING...AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC FOR PRECIP. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE GENERAL SHOWERS. FLOW THEN TURNS
NORTHWESTERLY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWFA. TUE
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STILL TAG THE 80S...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM
BEYOND THE LOW/MID 70S WED/THUR. BROAD SFC RIDGE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS
IN WED NGT/THUR...WITH PLEASANT AND LESS HUMID CONDS DEVELOPING.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN MAY BE ADJUSTING FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS. IN CONCERT WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST...THERMAL
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THIS WILL LIKELY AID IN MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO POSSIBLY MID 80S. WHILE IT
LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE CWFA...IT IS POSSIBLE A
WEAK WAVE COULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND GENERATE SOME
LOW CHC POPS.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* TSRA 08Z-10Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
* LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING.
* STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH
MID EVENING.
* TSRA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING WITH STRONG/ERRATIC
WINDS/HEAVY RAIN. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LINE OF TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED AS THEY REACH THE SOUTHERN END OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAIN AND
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. DEPENDING ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION...IT IS
POSSIBLE STRONGEST CELLS MAY MOVE NORTH AND/OR SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS.
DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE LOWER 70S EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE MAINTAINED
MIXED LOW LEVELS AND EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE MID/UPPER
TEEN RANGE UNTIL TSRA ARRIVE. MVFR CIGS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED WITH
THESE MOIST LOW LEVELS. POSSIBLE CIGS MAY DIP TO IFR TOWARD
SUNRISE BUT PREVAILING LOWER MVFR CIGS LOOK ON TRACK THROUGH MID
OR POSSIBLY LATE MORNING.
ONCE THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WEAKENS/MOVES EAST OF THE TERMINALS...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. TSRA EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST OF RFD LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE
COMPLEX OF STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN IL DURING THE
EARLY/MID EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG/ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS. MAINTAINED
TIMING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE BEST TIME
PERIOD...BUT SOME REFINEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LATER FORECASTS.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING
HOURS AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME QUITE STRONG BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 30KTS. NOT TOO
CONFIDENT HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BECOME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
BUT DID BUMP SPEEDS/GUSTS UP A BIT. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH FOR TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING.
* HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING.
* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* HIGH FOR TSRA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING...MEDIUM ON
TIMING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA AND MVFR.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...VFR LIKELY.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
212 PM CDT
UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIES OVER MANITOBA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE ARE HELPING TO KEEP THE WINDS IN
CHECK TO SOME DEGREE...BUT SOME SHIPS HAVE REPORTED WINDS TO
AROUND 30 KT SO FAR TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE MODERATE WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH ON
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. ALSO...DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S HAVE BEEN
TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE. THERE IS NO
CLEAR REASON FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE UNTIL LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE. WILL EXTEND
THE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO BEYOND
THAT EVEN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1215 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
1210 AM CDT
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH A MORE WEST-EAST ORIENTED SEGMENT
IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME BOWING JUST NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS
INCLUDING REGULAR GUSTS ACROSS NORTHWEST IL ARE SUPPORTING OF
SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY AND HAVE SEEN THIS REFLECTED IN RADAR THE
PAST COUPLE HOURS ALONG WITH TWO POTENTIAL TORNADO REPORTS FROM
THE MKX AND DVN CWAS. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY ARE
STRONG...AROUND 25-30 KT AND 200-250 M2/S2 BASED ON THE DVN VAD
PROFILE. SO THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE LOW-
LEVEL ROTATION IN ANY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS WELL AS THE ABILITY
TO STRENGTHEN BOWING SEGMENTS. RADAR TRENDS IN THE PAST HALF HOUR
HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF A LITTLE MORE OUTFLOW DRIVEN STORMS/SEGMENTS
WITHIN THE BROKEN LINE...INDICATING MORE OF A WIND
THREAT...THROUGH SOME REGULARLY MODEST BOOKEND VORTICY SIGNATURES
INCLUDING NEAR THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS STATE LINE NORTH OF ROCKFORD
AND NEAR CLINTON AS OF 1210 AM.
COMPARING VAD PROFILES BETWEEN DMX AND DVN IT IS CLEAR THERE IS A
MID-LEVEL WAVE...LIKELY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED...THAT IS HELPING
TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY ROBUST...ALONG WITH UPPER JET SUPPORT. THIS
WAVE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO MOVE STORMS ALONG EASTWARD...ALONG WITH
THE VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET THOUGH SOME BACKBUILDING HAS BEEN
SEEN. CONVECTION SHOULD STILL SEE A VERY SLOW WEAKENING
TREND...LIKELY MORE SO AS IT NEARS CHICAGO DUE TO A STRONGER
INVERSION. IF HOWEVER CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED WITH A SUSTAINING
COLD POOL...THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE MORE LIKELY
FURTHER EAST THAN CURRENT WATCH.
MTF
&&
.DISCUSSION...
801 PM CDT
ALL ATTENTION THIS EVENING IS FOCUSED ON THE RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA.
IT APPEARS THAT ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER
WEAK...THAT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/MAINTAIN
ITSELF ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF IOWA THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR MY
AREA IS IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BUILD UPSCALE INTO ANY FORWARD
PROPAGATING SEGMENTS. UNFORTUNATELY CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS
POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...THE CORFIDI FORWARD
PROPAGATING VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THE FORWARD PROPAGATING SEGMENTS
WOULD FAVOR A NEARLY DUE EASTERLY MOVEMENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR THIS
ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 00 UTC SOUNDING OUT OF
KDVN INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH
JUST OVER 3800 J/KG OF SBCAPE...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML. ALTHOUGH THIS EML IS
ACTING AS A CAP CURRENTLY...ONCE STORMS EVOLVE EASTWARD...THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL OF OUTFLOW DOMINATE
STORMS...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FORWARD
PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
PRESENCE OF NEARLY 50 KT OF MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.
THE MAIN WILDCARD TO THIS POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT WILL BE IF AND HOW THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI TONIGHT AFFECTS THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT
THE PORTIONS OF MISSOURI WILL RESIDE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED SHORT WAVE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...COULD FAVOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO THRIVE IN MISSOURI TONIGHT. IN RETURN...THIS COULD ACT
TO ROB THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...WHICH COULD CAUSE THEM TO WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHICH SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT...I HAVE CHOSEN
TO NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE GOING POPS AT THIS TIME. OUR
CURRENT FORECAST PLACES THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS FROM 6 TO 9 UTC TONIGHT...WHICH STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES TO LOOK THE GREATEST FOR LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
204 PM CDT
TONIGHT...
LINGERING STRATUS CLOUDS FINALLY BURNED OFF LATE THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTN. VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES SOME OF THE CU FIELD WAS BECOMING AGITATED AND TRYING TO
BUILD SOUTH OF I-80 THIS AFTN...WHICH WAS THE REGION WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE WAS AVAILABLE AS DEW POINTS LINGERED ARND 70 TO LOW 70S.
THE STRONGER WAVE WAS STILL WELL WEST OF THE CWFA INTO
CENTRAL/WESTERN IOWA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTN/EVE WILL RESIDE. FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST
IN...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STEADILY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK WARM LAYER ALOFT...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS EXPECTED. WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS AFTN...ALTHOUGH A FEW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
LASALLE TO VALPARAISO COULD STILL TAG 90 THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE TEMPS
SHUD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPR 80S.
THE STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SHOW OR NO-SHOW IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTION. THEN IN WHAT CAPACITY WILL IT ARRIVE ACROSS A PORTION OF
OUR CWFA TONIGHT/EARLY MON. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST WE
ARE SITTING ON ABOUT 2K J/KG OF CAPE...UNFORTUNATELY A WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO A MINIMA THRU AT LEAST
23Z. UPSTREAM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE INHIBITION OVER
CENTRAL IA SHUD BEGIN TO DISSOLVE BY 20-21Z...AND EXPECT AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTIVE GROWTH THERE. LOCAL ARW8KM SOLUTION HAS A SIMILAR WARM
LAYER ALOFT...WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS A CAP AND COULD LINGER TO
ARND 00Z MON TO POSSIBLY 04Z.
UTILIZING THE BUNKER STORM MOTION...IT APPEARS THAT IF CONVECTION
CAN DEVELOP UPSTREAM IT WOULD SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CWFA
THEN TURN SOUTHEAST CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN CWFA. BUT THE QUESTION
REMAINS WILL CONVECTION BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE CWFA
TONIGHT...AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT THIS
LOOKS TO BE CHALLENGING.
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.
MONDAY...
THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE DAY OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. THE TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED IN
THE AFTN/EVE TIMEFRAME. THE DAY SHUD START OFF WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. PROFILES INDICATE STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES BY EARLY AFTN...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A SIZABLE PUSH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT THAT COULD KEEP THINGS CAPPED YET AGAIN THRU
21-22Z MON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE WAVE OVER IOWA ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A MID-LVL TROUGH/VORT TO BE THE FOCAL POINT.
THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AFT
21Z...SO THE TIMING OF LATE AFTN/EVE FOR GREATEST CONVECTIVE GROWTH
AND COVERAGE REMAINS IN PLACE. STORM MOTION MON EVE LOOKS TO BE
PUSHING EAST THEN BEGIN TURNING SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME SPC HAS THE
ENTIRE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK...WITH THE GREATEST HAZARDS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TEMPS MON WILL HINGE UPON THE MORNING CLOUD COVERAGE AND HOW QUICKLY
THAT CAN ERODE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TEMPS SHUD PUSH INTO THE
MID/UPR 80S WITH DEW PTS IN THE LOW 70S. THE COMBINATION WILL CREATE
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID/UPR 90S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRY SLOT QUICKLY ARRIVES BEHIND THE VORT PASSAGE TUE...WHICH SHUD
ALLOW MUCH OF TUE TO BE DRY. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH A MORE ROBUST MID-LVL TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION WED. ANOTHER LOBE OF
VORTICITY IS PROGGED TO PIVOT OVERHEAD WED MORNING...AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC FOR PRECIP. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE GENERAL SHOWERS. FLOW THEN TURNS
NORTHWESTERLY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWFA. TUE
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STILL TAG THE 80S...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM
BEYOND THE LOW/MID 70S WED/THUR. BROAD SFC RIDGE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS
IN WED NGT/THUR...WITH PLEASANT AND LESS HUMID CONDS DEVELOPING.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN MAY BE ADJUSTING FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS. IN CONCERT WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST...THERMAL
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THIS WILL LIKELY AID IN MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO POSSIBLY MID 80S. WHILE IT
LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE CWFA...IT IS POSSIBLE A
WEAK WAVE COULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND GENERATE SOME
LOW CHC POPS.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* LIKELIHOOD FOR SHRA LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE TSRA.
* MVFR CIGS LIKELY DEVELOPING THROUGH TONIGHT AND PERSISTING
MONDAY MORNING.
* NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY.
* STRONG GUSTY T-STORMS MONDAY EVENING.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
THE MAIN IMPACT DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE TSRA LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EVENING...HOWEVER SEVERAL THINGS
OF NOTE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR
CONTINUES TO FEED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WITHIN
THAT MOIST AIR...PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
CENTRAL IL AND FEEL SOME OF THIS COULD GET ADVECTED OR DEVELOP
UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN IL LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE 00Z DVN WEATHER BALLOON DATA DOES INDICATE A CAP
CONTINUING WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVE.
OVERNIGHT THOUGH...STORMS ACROSS IA AS OF 00Z SHOULD EVOLVE
EASTWARD AND FEED ON UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT. THESE WILL LIKELY REACH
THE ROCKFORD AREA NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z-07Z. IT IS CHALLENGING
TO SAY WHAT COVERAGE WILL BE...AND THAT WILL BE A DETERMINANT FOR
HOW MUCH IF ANY STORMS CAN REACH EASTWARD TO THE CHICAGO
TERMINALS. FOR THAT REASON...CONTINUING VICINITY MENTION.
MONDAY WILL SEE EARLY MORNING CLOUDS LIFT AND LIKELY SCATTER WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE FOR
SUMMERTIME MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN
RESPONSE...ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF IA INTO SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHWEST IL DURING MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS GIVEN THE
WEATHER PATTERN...THOUGH TIMING COULD VARY BY A COUPLE/FEW HOURS.
THESE STORMS SHOULD TRACK EAST PRESENTING A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...ESPECIALLY VERY GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
CHICAGOLAND AREA MONDAY EVE.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH IN WINDS.
* LOW IN WHETHER TSRA REACHES AIRFIELDS LATE TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
* HIGH IN TSRA OCCURRING MONDAY EVENING. MEDIUM IN TIMING.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA AND MVFR.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...VFR LIKELY.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
212 PM CDT
UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIES OVER MANITOBA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE ARE HELPING TO KEEP THE WINDS IN
CHECK TO SOME DEGREE...BUT SOME SHIPS HAVE REPORTED WINDS TO
AROUND 30 KT SO FAR TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE MODERATE WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH ON
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. ALSO...DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S HAVE BEEN
TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE. THERE IS NO
CLEAR REASON FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE UNTIL LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE. WILL EXTEND
THE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO BEYOND
THAT EVEN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
429 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THE RECENT ACTIVE PATTERN. HOWEVER...LARGE
DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE LAST HALF
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
AIRMASS IS RECOVERING RELATIVELY QUICKLY FROM MORNING CONVECTION
THAT HAS ONLY JUST CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AMPLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
REMAINS IN PLACE AND AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT LAID OUT FROM NW TO
SE FROM MAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN IOWA THROUGH ILLINOIS AND INTO
INDIANA. MODELS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT DAYS...ARE
STRUGGLING AND HAVE PRESENTED SOME DIFFERING OPINIONS AS TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MCS. 4KM SPC WRF SHOWS INITIAL COMPLEX MOVING
GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN
INDIANA...WHILE SECONDARY COMPLEX FORMS ON SOUTHERN FLANK AND
FOLLOWS INSTABILITY GRADIENT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH.
FOR NOW...EXPECT A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION WITH A TREND
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT FOR THE MAIN
COMPLEX AS COLD POOL ESTABLISHES...PUTTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE MCS IN THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 03-05Z. WILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS THERE WITH LESSER POPS AS ONE MOVES SOUTHEAST.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AMPLE TO SUSTAIN THE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT AND
THUS SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST MOST OF THE NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE NUMBER ONE THREAT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT BUT A
LESSER ONE WITH FREEZING LEVELS APPROACHING 15KFT. THIS DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO
INCHES...OR 150-170 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE AREA...WILL PRESENT
A CLEAR HYDROLOGIC THREAT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE REPEATED ROUNDS
OF RAIN RECEIVED ACROSS THE AREA IN RECENT WEEKS...ALTHOUGH
RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTIONS WILL MITIGATE THAT SOMEWHAT.
MIN TEMPS SHOULD END UP NEAR OR JUST ABOVE PERSISTENCE PER LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
WEAKENING COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY STILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT TRAILING IT. MAY SEE STORMS REDEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL EVEN HAVE TO CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT.
SHOULD BE DRY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...K INDICES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT THUNDER
APPEARS UNLIKELY AND WILL ONLY CARRY SHOWERS. REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.
MOS BLEND NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPERATURES BASED ON 850
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION CAN BE
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE LONG TERM. A WARM FRONT AND WEAK UPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF.
00Z ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN RAIN
WITH THE FRONT...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. 12Z GFS IS MUCH DRIER. HOWEVER
GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN BETWEEN. FOR NOW WILL GO DRY ON SUNDAY AND ONLY
LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES IN.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 301800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
2030Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
THUNDER SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SITES BY VALID TIME. RAIN HAS CLEARED
OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS AT THE SITES...SO ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED LOWER
CLOUDS WITH A HIGH CLOUD CEILING THIS AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH SUN
BREAKS OUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF BROKEN
CUMULUS...ESPECIALLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN
INDIANA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THESE STORMS WILL GET OVERNIGHT...SO JUST
WENT PROB30 EVERYWHERE FOR NOW. AT THE MOMENT BELIEVE KLAF AND KIND
WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE STORMS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG...BUT WILL HAVE
TO WATCH CLOSELY. COLD FRONT COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AFTER
12Z TUESDAY SO WENT VCSH ALL SITES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
356 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THE RECENT ACTIVE PATTERN. HOWEVER...LARGE
DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE LAST HALF
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
AIRMASS IS RECOVERING RELATIVELY QUICKLY FROM MORNING CONVECTION
THAT HAS ONLY JUST CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AMPLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
REMAINS IN PLACE AND AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT LAID OUT FROM NW TO
SE FROM MAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN IOWA THROUGH ILLINOIS AND INTO
INDIANA. MODELS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT DAYS...ARE
STRUGGLING AND HAVE PRESENTED SOME DIFFERING OPINIONS AS TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MCS. 4KM SPC WRF SHOWS INITIAL COMPLEX MOVING
GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN
INDIANA...WHILE SECONDARY COMPLEX FORMS ON SOUTHERN FLANK AND
FOLLOWS INSTABILITY GRADIENT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH.
FOR NOW...EXPECT A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION WITH A TREND
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT FOR THE MAIN
COMPLEX AS COLD POOL ESTABLISHES...PUTTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE MCS IN THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 03-05Z. WILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS THERE WITH LESSER POPS AS ONE MOVES SOUTHEAST.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AMPLE TO SUSTAIN THE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT AND
THUS SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST MOST OF THE NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE NUMBER ONE THREAT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT BUT A
LESSER ONE WITH FREEZING LEVELS APPROACHING 15KFT. THIS DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO
INCHES...OR 150-170 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE AREA...WILL PRESENT
A CLEAR HYDROLOGIC THREAT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE REPEATED ROUNDS
OF RAIN RECEIVED ACROSS THE AREA IN RECENT WEEKS...ALTHOUGH
RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTIONS WILL MITIGATE THAT SOMEWHAT.
MIN TEMPS SHOULD END UP NEAR OR JUST ABOVE PERSISTENCE PER LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
WEAKENING COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY STILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT TRAILING IT. MAY SEE STORMS REDEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL EVEN HAVE TO CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT.
SHOULD BE DRY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...K INDICES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT THUNDER
APPEARS UNLIKELY AND WILL ONLY CARRY SHOWERS. REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.
MOS BLEND NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPERATURES BASED ON 850
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION CAN BE
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE LONG TERM. A WARM FRONT AND WEAK UPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF.
00Z ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN RAIN
WITH THE FRONT...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. 12Z GFS IS MUCH DRIER. HOWEVER
GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN BETWEEN. FOR NOW WILL GO DRY ON SUNDAY AND ONLY
LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES IN.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 301800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
THUNDER SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SITES BY VALID TIME. RAIN HAS CLEARED
OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS AT THE SITES...SO ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED LOWER
CLOUDS WITH A HIGH CLOUD CEILING THIS AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH SUN
BREAKS OUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF BROKEN
CUMULUS...ESPECIALLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN
INDIANA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THESE STORMS WILL GET OVERNIGHT...SO JUST
WENT PROB30 EVERYWHERE FOR NOW. AT THE MOMENT BELIEVE KLAF AND KIND
WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE STORMS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG...BUT WILL HAVE
TO WATCH CLOSELY. COLD FRONT COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AFTER
12Z TUESDAY SO WENT VCSH ALL SITES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS AN
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FINALLY PROVIDING A BREAK FROM THE RECENT STORMY
PATTERN. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
UPDATE MAINLY FOCUSES ON RADAR TRENDS. WILL CONFINE CHANCE AND
HIGHER POPS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS COMPLEX/S
NET MOTION IS JUST EAST OF SOUTH ALONG THE PRESENT INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT HAS BUILT INTO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING
RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MOMENT AND QUIET WEATHER SO
FAR. MUGGY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S AS OF 07Z.
INTERESTING 18 TO 24 HOURS UPCOMING FOR THE MIDWEST WITH AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LOW DRIFTING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO AND
SEVERAL WAVES ALOFT ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN A FAST
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS E/NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS/EASTERN IOWA THIS
MORNING AND EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
INITIAL ISSUE IS AFOREMENTIONED STORM CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. STORMS ARE BEING FED BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET
TRANSPORTING RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MESOANALYSIS ALSO INDICATING THE ACTIVITY PROPAGATING ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS AND THETA-E RIDGE. BULK OF THE SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE COMPLEX OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS AS IT
TRACKS E/SE AWAY FROM THE DEEPER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALREADY
SEEING WARMING CLOUD TOPS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COMPLEX AS
STORMS INTERACT WITH WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS WITH THE PREDOMINANT
FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE CONVECTION WEST OF CHICAGO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BEST FORCING ALOFT AND INSTABILITY. WHILE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST...NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT PRECIP MAY
MAKE IT TO THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. OF GREATER IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE COMPLEX WHICH IS LIKELY TO LIMIT
SURFACE HEATING THIS MORNING. WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH FLEXES ITS MUSCLES HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE
DEBRIS WILL BE GONE BY MIDDAY.
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LARGELY QUIET FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT PROMOTE A CAP AROUND 700MB. WILL LEAVE A 20 POP IN FOR
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION AS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT DRIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE CAP SHOULD KEEP A LID ON
MOST STORMS. FOCUS WILL SHIFT BACK TO NEBRASKA AND IOWA BY MID
AFTERNOON AS THE ARRIVAL OF A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW INTO AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD
ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS RAPIDLY EXPANDING EAST INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN BY EARLY EVENING. MORE ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS
TO OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.
TEMPS...DESPITE 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 20C BY LATE
AFTERNOON...CLOUD DEBRIS THIS MORNING AND CU DURING THE AFTERNOON
WILL LIMIT HEATING SLIGHTLY. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER METMOS WITH MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WARMING TO 86-89.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS PRIMARILY ON PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT...AS
WELL AS TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM.
WELL DEVELOPED AND INTENSIFYING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL BE ONGOING THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
BY LATE EVENING. WHILE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO AN
OVERESTIMATION IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...OVERALL DYNAMICS ARE
EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FOR AN EARLY SUMMER SYSTEM. SUB 1000MB WAVES
WILL GET YOUR ATTENTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...LET ALONE THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SURFACE LOW INTENSITY IN THE VICINITY OF 990-995MB
BY THE EARLY OVERNIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS BEING ADVERTISED.
CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE HIGH INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH THE
PROGGED WIND FIELDS...FURTHER GROWTH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
TO CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING.
WHILE MUCH GREATER CERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THE PICTURE IS NOT
AS CLEAR FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. INITIALLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE CAP STILL PRESENT THROUGH THE EVENING WITH COOLING ALOFT TOWARDS
06Z AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TUMBLE. CORE OF THE HIGHER WIND FIELDS AND
FORCING ALOFT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW WITH
850MB WINDS PEAKING AT 35-40KTS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 06Z.
WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE TO MAINTAINING THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...FEEL THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY PRESENT SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HI-RES NMM/ARW SUPPORT THIS THINKING...BOTH
INDICATING A WEAKENING SQUALL LINE IMPACTING NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-09Z. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE LINE BESIDES
TORRENTIAL RAINS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AS A WELL DEVELOPED COLD
POOL LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. HAVE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH. VERY
POSSIBLE THAT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SEE NO RAIN AT
ALL.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT INTO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. PRESENCE OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION TONIGHT
MAY SERVE TO INITIATE NEW STORMS AS HEATING PEAKS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL FORCING
ALOFT...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW EXTENSIVE THE COVERAGE WILL BE.
WILL CARRY ONLY ISOLATED POPS AT THIS TIME WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH A
SECONDARY FRONT. WHILE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE MAIN FRONT...EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER WEATHER...FINALLY GIVING CENTRAL INDIANA A BREAK FROM THE
UNSETTLED...STORMY AND HUMID WEATHER EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST FEW
WEEKS.
TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR TO TODAY ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70. ONCE AGAIN TRENDED TOWARDS
WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. WENT A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE MAVMOS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE 00Z GFS LOOKS OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND UPPER WAVE IN THE AREA. PREFERRED
WARMER METMOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WILL FEEL WONDERFUL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE LONG
TERM. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH IT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NORTHERLY COMPONENT FLOW WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
DEW POINTS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE LOW 80S AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMENCES ON THE BACK SIDE. SUNDAY GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SO COULD SEE PRECIP
CHANCES ARRIVING AFTER THAT. PRIOR TO SUNDAY THOUGH MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 301500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD
KIND THIS MORNING...BUT LATEST TRENDS INDICATE THAT SOME THUNDER
SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE SITE AFTER 15Z /CLOSER TO 16Z/. HAVE INCLUDED
IFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING IN THE TEMPO. AFTER THE RAIN ENDS EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SITES ARE STARTING OUT WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THEY SHOULD LIFT TO VFR. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT KLAF BEFORE FIZZLING OUT TO
SHOWERS. HRRR AND RAP DO NOT SHOW IT HOLDING TOGETHER EVEN THAT LONG
BUT RECENT RADAR TRENDS POINT OTHERWISE. THUS WILL TEMPO IN SOME
THUNDER AT KLAF TIMED TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. AT KHUF
WILL PUT IN SOME VCSH AS THERE IS NO LIGHTNING WITH THE ECHOES
HEADING THAT WAY. DOES NOT CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE THIS WILL IMPACT KIND
AND KBMG. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT BUT TIMING IS STILL A BIT IN THE AIR. WILL PUT IN A VCTS
DURING MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP/50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1015 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS AN
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FINALLY PROVIDING A BREAK FROM THE RECENT STORMY
PATTERN. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
UPDATE MAINLY FOCUSES ON RADAR TRENDS. WILL CONFINE CHANCE AND
HIGHER POPS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS COMPLEX/S
NET MOTION IS JUST EAST OF SOUTH ALONG THE PRESENT INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT HAS BUILT INTO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING
RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MOMENT AND QUIET WEATHER SO
FAR. MUGGY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S AS OF 07Z.
INTERESTING 18 TO 24 HOURS UPCOMING FOR THE MIDWEST WITH AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LOW DRIFTING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO AND
SEVERAL WAVES ALOFT ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN A FAST
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS E/NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS/EASTERN IOWA THIS
MORNING AND EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
INITIAL ISSUE IS AFOREMENTIONED STORM CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. STORMS ARE BEING FED BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET
TRANSPORTING RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MESOANALYSIS ALSO INDICATING THE ACTIVITY PROPAGATING ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS AND THETA-E RIDGE. BULK OF THE SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE COMPLEX OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS AS IT
TRACKS E/SE AWAY FROM THE DEEPER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALREADY
SEEING WARMING CLOUD TOPS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COMPLEX AS
STORMS INTERACT WITH WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS WITH THE PREDOMINANT
FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE CONVECTION WEST OF CHICAGO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BEST FORCING ALOFT AND INSTABILITY. WHILE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST...NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT PRECIP MAY
MAKE IT TO THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. OF GREATER IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE COMPLEX WHICH IS LIKELY TO LIMIT
SURFACE HEATING THIS MORNING. WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH FLEXES ITS MUSCLES HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE
DEBRIS WILL BE GONE BY MIDDAY.
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LARGELY QUIET FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT PROMOTE A CAP AROUND 700MB. WILL LEAVE A 20 POP IN FOR
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION AS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT DRIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE CAP SHOULD KEEP A LID ON
MOST STORMS. FOCUS WILL SHIFT BACK TO NEBRASKA AND IOWA BY MID
AFTERNOON AS THE ARRIVAL OF A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW INTO AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD
ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS RAPIDLY EXPANDING EAST INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN BY EARLY EVENING. MORE ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS
TO OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.
TEMPS...DESPITE 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 20C BY LATE
AFTERNOON...CLOUD DEBRIS THIS MORNING AND CU DURING THE AFTERNOON
WILL LIMIT HEATING SLIGHTLY. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER METMOS WITH MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WARMING TO 86-89.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS PRIMARILY ON PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT...AS
WELL AS TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM.
WELL DEVELOPED AND INTENSIFYING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL BE ONGOING THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
BY LATE EVENING. WHILE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO AN
OVERESTIMATION IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...OVERALL DYNAMICS ARE
EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FOR AN EARLY SUMMER SYSTEM. SUB 1000MB WAVES
WILL GET YOUR ATTENTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...LET ALONE THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SURFACE LOW INTENSITY IN THE VICINITY OF 990-995MB
BY THE EARLY OVERNIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS BEING ADVERTISED.
CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE HIGH INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH THE
PROGGED WIND FIELDS...FURTHER GROWTH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
TO CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING.
WHILE MUCH GREATER CERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THE PICTURE IS NOT
AS CLEAR FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. INITIALLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE CAP STILL PRESENT THROUGH THE EVENING WITH COOLING ALOFT TOWARDS
06Z AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TUMBLE. CORE OF THE HIGHER WIND FIELDS AND
FORCING ALOFT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW WITH
850MB WINDS PEAKING AT 35-40KTS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 06Z.
WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE TO MAINTAINING THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...FEEL THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY PRESENT SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HI-RES NMM/ARW SUPPORT THIS THINKING...BOTH
INDICATING A WEAKENING SQUALL LINE IMPACTING NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-09Z. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE LINE BESIDES
TORRENTIAL RAINS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AS A WELL DEVELOPED COLD
POOL LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. HAVE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH. VERY
POSSIBLE THAT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SEE NO RAIN AT
ALL.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT INTO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. PRESENCE OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION TONIGHT
MAY SERVE TO INITIATE NEW STORMS AS HEATING PEAKS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL FORCING
ALOFT...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW EXTENSIVE THE COVERAGE WILL BE.
WILL CARRY ONLY ISOLATED POPS AT THIS TIME WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH A
SECONDARY FRONT. WHILE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE MAIN FRONT...EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER WEATHER...FINALLY GIVING CENTRAL INDIANA A BREAK FROM THE
UNSETTLED...STORMY AND HUMID WEATHER EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST FEW
WEEKS.
TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR TO TODAY ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70. ONCE AGAIN TRENDED TOWARDS
WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. WENT A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE MAVMOS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE 00Z GFS LOOKS OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND UPPER WAVE IN THE AREA. PREFERRED
WARMER METMOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WILL FEEL WONDERFUL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE LONG
TERM. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH IT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NORTHERLY COMPONENT FLOW WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
DEW POINTS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE LOW 80S AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMENCES ON THE BACK SIDE. SUNDAY GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SO COULD SEE PRECIP
CHANCES ARRIVING AFTER THAT. PRIOR TO SUNDAY THOUGH MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 301200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
SITES ARE STARTING OUT WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THEY SHOULD LIFT TO VFR. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT KLAF BEFORE FIZZLING OUT TO
SHOWERS. HRRR AND RAP DO NOT SHOW IT HOLDING TOGETHER EVEN THAT LONG
BUT RECENT RADAR TRENDS POINT OTHERWISE. THUS WILL TEMPO IN SOME
THUNDER AT KLAF TIMED TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. AT KHUF
WILL PUT IN SOME VCSH AS THERE IS NO LIGHTNING WITH THE ECHOES
HEADING THAT WAY. DOES NOT CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE THIS WILL IMPACT KIND
AND KBMG. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT BUT TIMING IS STILL A BIT IN THE AIR. WILL PUT IN A VCTS
DURING MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
704 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS AN
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FINALLY PROVIDING A BREAK FROM THE RECENT STORMY
PATTERN. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT HAS BUILT INTO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING
RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MOMENT AND QUIET WEATHER SO
FAR. MUGGY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S AS OF 07Z.
INTERESTING 18 TO 24 HOURS UPCOMING FOR THE MIDWEST WITH AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LOW DRIFTING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO AND
SEVERAL WAVES ALOFT ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN A FAST
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS E/NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS/EASTERN IOWA THIS
MORNING AND EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
INITIAL ISSUE IS AFOREMENTIONED STORM CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. STORMS ARE BEING FED BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET
TRANSPORTING RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MESOANALYSIS ALSO INDICATING THE ACTIVITY PROPAGATING ALONG AN
INSTABILITY AXIS AND THETA-E RIDGE. BULK OF THE SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE COMPLEX OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS AS IT
TRACKS E/SE AWAY FROM THE DEEPER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALREADY
SEEING WARMING CLOUD TOPS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COMPLEX AS
STORMS INTERACT WITH WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS WITH THE PREDOMINANT
FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE CONVECTION WEST OF CHICAGO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BEST FORCING ALOFT AND INSTABILITY. WHILE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST...NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT PRECIP MAY
MAKE IT TO THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. OF GREATER IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE COMPLEX WHICH IS LIKELY TO LIMIT
SURFACE HEATING THIS MORNING. WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH FLEXES ITS MUSCLES HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE
DEBRIS WILL BE GONE BY MIDDAY.
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LARGELY QUIET FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT PROMOTE A CAP AROUND 700MB. WILL LEAVE A 20 POP IN FOR
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION AS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT DRIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE CAP SHOULD KEEP A LID ON
MOST STORMS. FOCUS WILL SHIFT BACK TO NEBRASKA AND IOWA BY MID
AFTERNOON AS THE ARRIVAL OF A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW INTO AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD
ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS RAPIDLY EXPANDING EAST INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN BY EARLY EVENING. MORE ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS
TO OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.
TEMPS...DESPITE 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 20C BY LATE
AFTERNOON...CLOUD DEBRIS THIS MORNING AND CU DURING THE AFTERNOON
WILL LIMIT HEATING SLIGHTLY. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER METMOS WITH MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WARMING TO 86-89.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS PRIMARILY ON PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT...AS
WELL AS TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM.
WELL DEVELOPED AND INTENSIFYING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL BE ONGOING THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
BY LATE EVENING. WHILE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO AN
OVERESTIMATION IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...OVERALL DYNAMICS ARE
EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FOR AN EARLY SUMMER SYSTEM. SUB 1000MB WAVES
WILL GET YOUR ATTENTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...LET ALONE THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SURFACE LOW INTENSITY IN THE VICINITY OF 990-995MB
BY THE EARLY OVERNIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS BEING ADVERTISED.
CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE HIGH INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH THE
PROGGED WIND FIELDS...FURTHER GROWTH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
TO CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING.
WHILE MUCH GREATER CERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THE PICTURE IS NOT
AS CLEAR FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. INITIALLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE CAP STILL PRESENT THROUGH THE EVENING WITH COOLING ALOFT TOWARDS
06Z AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TUMBLE. CORE OF THE HIGHER WIND FIELDS AND
FORCING ALOFT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW WITH
850MB WINDS PEAKING AT 35-40KTS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 06Z.
WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE TO MAINTAINING THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...FEEL THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY PRESENT SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HI-RES NMM/ARW SUPPORT THIS THINKING...BOTH
INDICATING A WEAKENING SQUALL LINE IMPACTING NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-09Z. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE LINE BESIDES
TORRENTIAL RAINS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AS A WELL DEVELOPED COLD
POOL LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. HAVE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH. VERY
POSSIBLE THAT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SEE NO RAIN AT
ALL.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT INTO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. PRESENCE OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION TONIGHT
MAY SERVE TO INITIATE NEW STORMS AS HEATING PEAKS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL FORCING
ALOFT...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW EXTENSIVE THE COVERAGE WILL BE.
WILL CARRY ONLY ISOLATED POPS AT THIS TIME WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH A
SECONDARY FRONT. WHILE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE MAIN FRONT...EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER WEATHER...FINALLY GIVING CENTRAL INDIANA A BREAK FROM THE
UNSETTLED...STORMY AND HUMID WEATHER EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST FEW
WEEKS.
TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR TO TODAY ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70. ONCE AGAIN TRENDED TOWARDS
WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. WENT A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE MAVMOS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE 00Z GFS LOOKS OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND UPPER WAVE IN THE AREA. PREFERRED
WARMER METMOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WILL FEEL WONDERFUL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE LONG
TERM. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH IT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NORTHERLY COMPONENT FLOW WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
DEW POINTS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE LOW 80S AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMENCES ON THE BACK SIDE. SUNDAY GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SO COULD SEE PRECIP
CHANCES ARRIVING AFTER THAT. PRIOR TO SUNDAY THOUGH MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 301200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
SITES ARE STARTING OUT WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THEY SHOULD LIFT TO VFR. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT KLAF BEFORE FIZZLING OUT TO
SHOWERS. HRRR AND RAP DO NOT SHOW IT HOLDING TOGETHER EVEN THAT LONG
BUT RECENT RADAR TRENDS POINT OTHERWISE. THUS WILL TEMPO IN SOME
THUNDER AT KLAF TIMED TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. AT KHUF
WILL PUT IN SOME VCSH AS THERE IS NO LIGHTNING WITH THE ECHOES
HEADING THAT WAY. DOES NOT CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE THIS WILL IMPACT KIND
AND KBMG. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT BUT TIMING IS STILL A BIT IN THE AIR. WILL PUT IN A VCTS
DURING MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
300 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
RAP and NAM verified well with the 18z surface analysis with the
surface cold front across southwest Kansas. A surface
trough/dry line extended south of this cold front into the
panhandle of Oklahoma and Texas. Warm air was located above these
surface boundaries with the RAP still suggesting a 700mb
temperature of greater than +16c lingers across southwest Kansas.
Given these warm temperatures any convection does develop along
these two boundaries am expecting this will occur after 23z.
Scattered convection is expected to develop along the cold front
late today. 0-6km shear is forecast to be 30 to 35 knots and the
CAPE values are expected to exceed 3500 j/kg at 00z Tuesday. Given
the instability and shear early this evening any storm that does
develop may become severe with the main hazard begin strong
damaging winds and golf ball size hail.
Thunderstorms will become more widespread across southwest and
south central Kansas early tonight. The latest RAP, NAM, and GFS
remain in good agreement keeping an area of moisture and improving
850mb-700mb frontogenesis over southwest Kansas after 00z Tuesday
as an upper level trough moves across Central High Plains.
Preciptable water values at 00z Tuesday were forecast to be at 1
to 1.5 inches. Given the forcing and moisture just north of the
cold front across southwest and south central Kansas early tonight
along with improving upper level dynamics front ahead of the upper
trough and near location of the right exit region of an upper
level jet will continue to favor thunderstorms increasing in areal
coverage between 00z Tuesday and 06z Tuesday with periods of heavy
rainfall being possible. At this time based on the location of
where the heavier rainfall is expected overnight will not be
issuing a flash flood watch but will mention flooding concerns in
the hazardous weather outlook.
Precipitation will taper off from northwest to southeast early
Tuesday as the upper level trough crosses western Kansas. 850mb
temperature trends from 00z Tuesday to 00z Wednesday suggests
highs mainly in the low to mid 80s. Given lingering afternoon
cloud cover near the Oklahoma border will trim temperatures down a
few degrees here from the later guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave dropping
southeast out of the Northern Rockies into the Western High Plains
early Wednesday then turning more eastward into the Central Plains
by Wednesday night. Meanwhile, upper level ridging will slowly
transition across the Intermountain West turning the flow aloft
more northwesterly across the Western High Plains toward the end
of the week. As the flow aloft weakens, precip chances will be
limited across much of central and western Kansas. However, a
near stationary frontal boundary just south of the Oklahoma border
may provide the focus for a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms
near and along the Oklahoma state line Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. The northwesterly flow aloft will persist through the
end of the week while the frontal boundary to our south extends
back north into eastern Colorado. As H5 vort maxima crest the
ridge and drop southeast off the Rockies, thunderstorm development
is likely lee of the front range each afternoon Thursday and
Friday. A few isolated thunderstorms could potentially drift into
western Kansas each evening.
Below normal temperatures are expected Wednesday as surface high
pressure moves southeast out of the Northern Plains into the Central
Plains of eastern Kansas. This will reinforce the slightly cooler
air mass in place across western Kansas with H85 temperatures
ranging from the upper teens(C) across central Kansas to the
lower 20s(C) closer to the Colorado border. Even with decreasing
cloud cover expected, look for highs struggling to reach the 80s(F)
across central and portions of southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon.
A gradual warming trend is then forecast through the weekend as
upper level ridging approaches from the west, pushing highs back
into the 90s(F) by Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
Cold front will cross southwest Kansas this afternoon. As this
front passes a gusty southwest winds will become northwest at 10
to 15knots. Given the general agreement on timing from the RAP,
HRRR, and NAM will stay close to the latest MET guidance on timing
of this wind shift. Moisture this afternoon and early tonight will
be located just above the elevated warm layer so VFR conditions
are expected through early this evening. Thunderstorms are
expected in increase in areal coverage near and south of the
Garden City and Dodge City airport after 00z Tuesday as an upper level
disturbance begins to cross the Central High Plains. Although the
better chances may end up being south of these airports will keep
a tempo group of thunderstorms going but adjusted timing more
towards the slightly slower 12z model runs. Winds and reduced
visibility from heavy rainfall will be the main hazard when these
storms pass early tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 82 60 83 / 60 30 10 10
GCK 62 82 59 83 / 30 20 10 10
EHA 62 78 59 83 / 70 30 20 10
LBL 64 80 61 83 / 80 30 20 10
HYS 62 84 59 80 / 20 20 0 0
P28 68 83 64 86 / 90 40 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
210 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
...Updated short term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
RAP and NAM verified well with the 18z surface analysis with the
surface cold front across southwest Kansas. A surface
trough/dry line extended south of this cold front into the
panhandle of Oklahoma and Texas. Warm air was located above these
surface boundaries with the RAP still suggesting a 700mb
temperature of greater than +16c lingers across southwest Kansas.
Given these warm temperatures any convection does develop along
these two boundaries am expecting this will occur after 23z.
Scattered convection is expected to develop along the cold front
late today. 0-6km shear is forecast to be 30 to 35 knots and the
CAPE values are expected to exceed 3500 j/kg at 00z Tuesday. Given
the instability and shear early this evening any storm that does
develop may become severe with the main hazard begin strong
damaging winds and golf ball size hail.
Thunderstorms will become more widespread across southwest and
south central Kansas early tonight. The latest RAP, NAM, and GFS
remain in good agreement keeping an area of moisture and improving
850mb-700mb frontogenesis over southwest Kansas after 00z Tuesday
as an upper level trough moves across Central High Plains.
Preciptable water values at 00z Tuesday were forecast to be at 1
to 1.5 inches. Given the forcing and moisture just north of the
cold front across southwest and south central Kansas early tonight
along with improving upper level dynamics front ahead of the upper
trough and near location of the right exit region of an upper
level jet will continue to favor thunderstorms increasing in areal
coverage between 00z Tuesday and 06z Tuesday with periods of heavy
rainfall being possible. At this time based on the location of
where the heavier rainfall is expected overnight will not be
issuing a flash flood watch but will mention flooding concerns in
the hazardous weather outlook.
Precipitation will taper off from northwest to southeast early
Tuesday as the upper level trough crosses western Kansas. 850mb
temperature trends from 00z Tuesday to 00z Wednesday suggests
highs mainly in the low to mid 80s. Given lingering afternoon
cloud cover near the Oklahoma border will trim temperatures down a
few degrees here from the later guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
By Tuesday, convective chances should be rapidly diminishing across
the northern sections of the forecast area, and remaining modestly
near the OK/KS line in vicinity of the 850-700 mb frontal/convergence
zone. Easterly upslope and relatively moist surface flow associated
with the large plains high pressure could cause extensive
cloudiness across positions of the forecast area leading to
dramatically cooler conditions for this time of the year. The GEM
(Canadian model) forecast highs only in the low 70s on Tuesday
which could occur with he right amount of thick cloudiness. We
used the consensus of the raw model output which still hovers
temperatures around 80 degrees on Tuesday and through the middle
of the week. The Global models begin to hint at convective chances
again by around mid week, however the broad upper flat ridge will
begin to have greater influence. This would tend to be less
favorable for widespread organized storms, but certainly not
completely hinder isolated severe storms. Temperatures should soar
back toward normal early July highs by late in the week through
the weekend. With dew point temperatures in the 60s still in place
and mid level temperatures not exceeding the low teens (C), it is
plausible isolated high cape/low shear pulse type convection could
develop anytime adequate surface convergence is present late in
the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
Cold front will cross southwest Kansas this afternoon. As this
front passes a gusty southwest winds will become northwest at 10
to 15knots. Given the general agreement on timing from the RAP,
HRRR, and NAM will stay close to the latest MET guidance on timing
of this wind shift. Moisture this afternoon and early tonight will
be located just above the elevated warm layer so VFR conditions
are expected through early this evening. Thunderstorms are
expected in increase in areal coverage near and south of the
Garden City and Dodge City airport after 00z Tuesday as an upper level
disturbance begins to cross the Central High Plains. Although the
better chances may end up being south of these airports will keep
a tempo group of thunderstorms going but adjusted timing more
towards the slightly slower 12z model runs. Winds and reduced
visibility from heavy rainfall will be the main hazard when these
storms pass early tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 82 60 84 / 60 30 10 10
GCK 62 82 59 81 / 30 20 10 10
EHA 62 78 59 79 / 70 30 20 10
LBL 64 80 61 82 / 80 30 20 10
HYS 62 84 59 80 / 20 20 0 0
P28 68 83 64 86 / 90 40 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1245 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
08Z profiler data shows the low level jet of 30 to 40 KTS continues
to gradually veer to the southwest becoming more parallel to the
front across central NEB. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery shows a
shortwave rotating through ID and MT with nearly zonal flow from the
west coast into the central plains. Surface obs indicate a very warm
and moist airmass remains in place across the forecast area.
With the low level jet veering southwest, convergence along the
boundary is likely to diminish. Besides that any convergence along
the boundary for elevated storms should remain to the north of the
area. Therefore think much of the nocturnal precip will remain north
of the forecast area. Will keep a token slight chance across the
northern tier of counties as the light shower activity spreads east.
The shortwave rotating through the mean flow over the northern
plains is expected to help push the cold front south into the area
by this afternoon. With the front lifting a very moist and unstable
airmass, thunderstorms are likely to develop in eastern KS before
moving to the east. Deep layer shear is expected to be sufficient
for supercell storms and low level shear and LCL heights suggest
tornadoes will be possible. The main questions are how widespread
the convection may be and when storms could initiate. Models show a
low level cap over the warm sector around 850 MB until late in the
afternoon, not unlike what was observed yesterday. But eventually
the forecast soundings cool the layer removing any inhibition. It is
unclear as to where the cooling is coming from as winds within the
layer remain from the southwest. Additionally the stronger forcing
associated with the shortwave over the northern plains appears to
remain just north of the forecast area. So am concerned that these
two factors may limit the coverage of storms in the later afternoon
and early evening. Nevertheless any storm that forms could quickly
become severe with a potential for tornadoes due to the instability
greater than 4000 J/kg and shear progged by the models. At this
time, think thunderstorm initiation may occur over eastern KS with
storms moving to the east. The thunderstorm activity is expected to
push south through the night tonight as the front slowly moves
south.
Highs today should be several degrees warmer than yesterday as there
should be less high level clouds to start the day off and models
laying the thermal ridge over into northeast KS along the surface
trough. There is some uncertainty in how deep the boundary layer
will mix and in turn how warm temps will get. The RAP has had a bias
to mixing the boundary layer to deep and feel it is way to warm.
Since there is so much humidity in the air, opted to keep highs in
the lower and middle 90s. This humidity however will cause heat
indices to range from 100 to 105 this afternoon. If it looks like
temps could end up a degree or two warmer with dewpoints holding in
the 70s, a heat advisory may be needed. Lows tonight should fall
into the 60s with some drier air advecting in from the north along
with some weak cold air advection.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
The previous active days will begin to calm for next week as a
cooler and more stable airmass settles into place. Still maintained
slight chances for thunderstorms Tuesday with the h85 front across
southern Kansas. Best chances for precipitation will reside near the
Kansas and Oklahoma border. Dry northwest flow aloft continues
Wednesday and Thursday as an expansive surface high builds from the
central plains through the Great Lakes. Light northerly sfc winds
around 10 mph Tuesday gradually will shift to the east and southeast
on Friday as the ridge nudges eastward. Upper ridging begins to
break down, tracking a shortwave trough into the central plains on
Friday evening. Mentioned slight chances for thunderstorms over the
northern CWA at this time, where highest lift resides. Confidence
however, in the southward extent to the trough is low at this time.
Periodic thunderstorms may be possible for next weekend as mid level
flow begins quasi-zonal, allowing for weak waves to pass through.
Unseasonably cooler temperatures Tuesday through Thursday, combined
with dewpoint temperatures in the 50s will make it feel much more
pleasant compared to the previous days. Highs behind the front
Tuesday begin in the low to middle 80s. Weak cool advection with the
surface ridge sliding south will lower highs Wednesday and Thursday
to the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight lows during this time with
decent radiational cooling and light winds may reach the upper 50s.
Thermal ridge begins to build over western and central KS
Independence Day as southerly flow returns, peaking highs to the low
and middle 80s. Weekend temps are track to return to near 90 degrees
with overnight lows in the upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
A surface cold front will move southeast across the terminals this
evening. Ahead of the front expect south-southwest winds of 15 to
25 KTS with gusts of 25 to 30 KTS this afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms will develop along the front late this afternoon and
may affect the terminals after 22Z and last through 03Z TUE.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
541 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
08Z profiler data shows the low level jet of 30 to 40 KTS continues
to gradually veer to the southwest becoming more parallel to the
front across central NEB. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery shows a
shortwave rotating through ID and MT with nearly zonal flow from the
west coast into the central plains. Surface obs indicate a very warm
and moist airmass remains in place across the forecast area.
With the low level jet veering southwest, convergence along the
boundary is likely to diminish. Besides that any convergence along
the boundary for elevated storms should remain to the north of the
area. Therefore think much of the nocturnal precip will remain north
of the forecast area. Will keep a token slight chance across the
northern tier of counties as the light shower activity spreads east.
The shortwave rotating through the mean flow over the northern
plains is expected to help push the cold front south into the area
by this afternoon. With the front lifting a very moist and unstable
airmass, thunderstorms are likely to develop in eastern KS before
moving to the east. Deep layer shear is expected to be sufficient
for supercell storms and low level shear and LCL heights suggest
tornadoes will be possible. The main questions are how widespread
the convection may be and when storms could initiate. Models show a
low level cap over the warm sector around 850 MB until late in the
afternoon, not unlike what was observed yesterday. But eventually
the forecast soundings cool the layer removing any inhibition. It is
unclear as to where the cooling is coming from as winds within the
layer remain from the southwest. Additionally the stronger forcing
associated with the shortwave over the northern plains appears to
remain just north of the forecast area. So am concerned that these
two factors may limit the coverage of storms in the later afternoon
and early evening. Nevertheless any storm that forms could quickly
become severe with a potential for tornadoes due to the instability
greater than 4000 J/kg and shear progged by the models. At this
time, think thunderstorm initiation may occur over eastern KS with
storms moving to the east. The thunderstorm activity is expected to
push south through the night tonight as the front slowly moves
south.
Highs today should be several degrees warmer than yesterday as there
should be less high level clouds to start the day off and models
laying the thermal ridge over into northeast KS along the surface
trough. There is some uncertainty in how deep the boundary layer
will mix and in turn how warm temps will get. The RAP has had a bias
to mixing the boundary layer to deep and feel it is way to warm.
Since there is so much humidity in the air, opted to keep highs in
the lower and middle 90s. This humidity however will cause heat
indices to range from 100 to 105 this afternoon. If it looks like
temps could end up a degree or two warmer with dewpoints holding in
the 70s, a heat advisory may be needed. Lows tonight should fall
into the 60s with some drier air advecting in from the north along
with some weak cold air advection.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
The previous active days will begin to calm for next week as a
cooler and more stable airmass settles into place. Still maintained
slight chances for thunderstorms Tuesday with the h85 front across
southern Kansas. Best chances for precipitation will reside near the
Kansas and Oklahoma border. Dry northwest flow aloft continues
Wednesday and Thursday as an expansive surface high builds from the
central plains through the Great Lakes. Light northerly sfc winds
around 10 mph Tuesday gradually will shift to the east and southeast
on Friday as the ridge nudges eastward. Upper ridging begins to
break down, tracking a shortwave trough into the central plains on
Friday evening. Mentioned slight chances for thunderstorms over the
northern CWA at this time, where highest lift resides. Confidence
however, in the southward extent to the trough is low at this time.
Periodic thunderstorms may be possible for next weekend as mid level
flow begins quasi-zonal, allowing for weak waves to pass through.
Unseasonably cooler temperatures Tuesday through Thursday, combined
with dewpoint temperatures in the 50s will make it feel much more
pleasant compared to the previous days. Highs behind the front
Tuesday begin in the low to middle 80s. Weak cool advection with the
surface ridge sliding south will lower highs Wednesday and Thursday
to the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight lows during this time with
decent radiational cooling and light winds may reach the upper 50s.
Thermal ridge begins to build over western and central KS
Independence Day as southerly flow returns, peaking highs to the low
and middle 80s. Weekend temps are track to return to near 90 degrees
with overnight lows in the upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 541 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
Main uncertainty in forecast is whether a low level cap will limit
storm coverage to a few isolated storms or if a broken line of
storms will form along the front. Because of this have only
maintained a VCTS in the forecast as the front moves through. IFR
conditions would be likely if a TS where to move into the
terminals. Otherwise good mixing of the boundary layer is expected
to keep VFR conditions this morning. Some modest dry air advection
behind the front overnight should allow VFR conditions to persist
into Tuesday morning.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
342 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
08Z profiler data shows the low level jet of 30 to 40 KTS continues
to gradually veer to the southwest becoming more parallel to the
front across central NEB. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery shows a
shortwave rotating through ID and MT with nearly zonal flow from the
west coast into the central plains. Surface obs indicate a very warm
and moist airmass remains in place across the forecast area.
With the low level jet veering southwest, convergence along the
boundary is likely to diminish. Besides that any convergence along
the boundary for elevated storms should remain to the north of the
area. Therefore think much of the nocturnal precip will remain north
of the forecast area. Will keep a token slight chance across the
northern tier of counties as the light shower activity spreads east.
The shortwave rotating through the mean flow over the northern
plains is expected to help push the cold front south into the area
by this afternoon. With the front lifting a very moist and unstable
airmass, thunderstorms are likely to develop in eastern KS before
moving to the east. Deep layer shear is expected to be sufficient
for supercell storms and low level shear and LCL heights suggest
tornadoes will be possible. The main questions are how widespread
the convection may be and when storms could initiate. Models show a
low level cap over the warm sector around 850 MB until late in the
afternoon, not unlike what was observed yesterday. But eventually
the forecast soundings cool the layer removing any inhibition. It is
unclear as to where the cooling is coming from as winds within the
layer remain from the southwest. Additionally the stronger forcing
associated with the shortwave over the northern plains appears to
remain just north of the forecast area. So am concerned that these
two factors may limit the coverage of storms in the later afternoon
and early evening. Nevertheless any storm that forms could quickly
become severe with a potential for tornadoes due to the instability
greater than 4000 J/kg and shear progged by the models. At this
time, think thunderstorm initiation may occur over eastern KS with
storms moving to the east. The thunderstorm activity is expected to
push south through the night tonight as the front slowly moves
south.
Highs today should be several degrees warmer than yesterday as there
should be less high level clouds to start the day off and models
laying the thermal ridge over into northeast KS along the surface
trough. There is some uncertainty in how deep the boundary layer
will mix and in turn how warm temps will get. The RAP has had a bias
to mixing the boundary layer to deep and feel it is way to warm.
Since there is so much humidity in the air, opted to keep highs in
the lower and middle 90s. This humidity however will cause heat
indices to range from 100 to 105 this afternoon. If it looks like
temps could end up a degree or two warmer with dewpoints holding in
the 70s, a heat advisory may be needed. Lows tonight should fall
into the 60s with some drier air advecting in from the north along
with some weak cold air advection.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
The previous active days will begin to calm for next week as a
cooler and more stable airmass settles into place. Still maintained
slight chances for thunderstorms Tuesday with the h85 front across
southern Kansas. Best chances for precipitation will reside near the
Kansas and Oklahoma border. Dry northwest flow aloft continues
Wednesday and Thursday as an expansive surface high builds from the
central plains through the Great Lakes. Light northerly sfc winds
around 10 mph Tuesday gradually will shift to the east and southeast
on Friday as the ridge nudges eastward. Upper ridging begins to
break down, tracking a shortwave trough into the central plains on
Friday evening. Mentioned slight chances for thunderstorms over the
northern CWA at this time, where highest lift resides. Confidence
however, in the southward extent to the trough is low at this time.
Periodic thunderstorms may be possible for next weekend as mid level
flow begins quasi-zonal, allowing for weak waves to pass through.
Unseasonably cooler temperatures Tuesday through Thursday, combined
with dewpoint temperatures in the 50s will make it feel much more
pleasant compared to the previous days. Highs behind the front
Tuesday begin in the low to middle 80s. Weak cool advection with the
surface ridge sliding south will lower highs Wednesday and Thursday
to the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight lows during this time with
decent radiational cooling and light winds may reach the upper 50s.
Thermal ridge begins to build over western and central KS
Independence Day as southerly flow returns, peaking highs to the low
and middle 80s. Weekend temps are track to return to near 90 degrees
with overnight lows in the upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
Could see a few periods of briefly lowered visibilities in the
very humid airmass for the next several hours but expect enough
wind to keep this the exception. Enough agreement with cap
breaking with frontal passage for VCTS for a few hours around 22Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1111 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1111 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AS EVIDENCED
BY THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS ON THE IR SATELLITE AS WELL AS THE RADAR
TRENDS. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS AND SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY NORTH OF I-64 AND A QUICK DOWNWARD TREND
FURTHER SOUTHEAST. UPDATES ARE OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OHIO DOWN THROUGH NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE OUT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND SOME MID-LEVEL FORCING MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND TO THIS
LINE IN THE PAST HOUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK...WHERE
SHEAR AND FORCING ARE WEAKER. THERE ARE STILL SOME EMBEDDED STRONGER
CELLS FROM DAY TO SDF. THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF HRRR RUNS CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN THIS LINE AS IT HEADS EAST...REACHING OUR BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES IN THE 02 TO 03Z TIME FRAME. HAVE INCREASED POPS NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY BASED ON THE RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AND MAINTAINED A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH...WHERE STORMS WILL LIKELY FALL APART BEFORE
REACHING THESE AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A STRONG CAP HAS KEPT CONVECTION AT BAY DESPITE INCREASING
INSTABILITY WITH LI/S DOWN TO -8 TO -10 AND CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000
J/KG. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ACROSS THE OH RIVER FROM EVV TO
SDF THIS AFTERNOON FAILED TO INITIATE CONVECTION...EVIDENCE OF THE
CAP. IT APPEARS THE CAP WILL ERODE FIRST OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT HOLD ON IN THE SOUTH INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM AND HRRR HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB
BY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OH VALLEY TODAY. AS SUCH
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HRRR FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR EARLY
TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THE HRRR IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL FINALLY
INITIATE TO OUR WEST AND NW THIS EVENING AS REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER MO AND KS MOVES EAST. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE ENE TONIGHT...WITH THE NW PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE RANGE IN THE NW FOR TONIGHT WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH REMAINS OVER IN AND OH THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
PASSES. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER COULD HOLD
ON AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WE SHOULD BE DONE WITH PRECIPITATION
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SOME COOL
NIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
WEAK. BY MONDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY CREEP NORTH WHICH COULD
PROVIDE FUEL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT AGAIN...MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A BETTER CHANCE OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH MONDAY. BETTER
SHOT OF A SHOWER POPPING UP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT EVEN
THEN...CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
BY MONDAY AS AIR MASS MODERATES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND LOOK TO REACH THOSE LOCATIONS BETWEEN 02 AND
03Z. ANY STORMS WILL BRING TEMPORARY MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES...WHERE
STORM CHANCES ARE LOWER. THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF MVFR FOG
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z DEPENDING ON CLEARING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A THREAT OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
850 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OHIO DOWN THROUGH NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE OUT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND SOME MID-LEVEL FORCING MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND TO THIS
LINE IN THE PAST HOUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK...WHERE
SHEAR AND FORCING ARE WEAKER. THERE ARE STILL SOME EMBEDDED STRONGER
CELLS FROM DAY TO SDF. THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF HRRR RUNS CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN THIS LINE AS IT HEADS EAST...REACHING OUR BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES IN THE 02 TO 03Z TIME FRAME. HAVE INCREASED POPS NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY BASED ON THE RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AND MAINTAINED A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH...WHERE STORMS WILL LIKELY FALL APART BEFORE
REACHING THESE AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A STRONG CAP HAS KEPT CONVECTION AT BAY DESPITE INCREASING
INSTABILITY WITH LI/S DOWN TO -8 TO -10 AND CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000
J/KG. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ACROSS THE OH RIVER FROM EVV TO
SDF THIS AFTERNOON FAILED TO INITIATE CONVECTION...EVIDENCE OF THE
CAP. IT APPEARS THE CAP WILL ERODE FIRST OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT HOLD ON IN THE SOUTH INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM AND HRRR HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB
BY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OH VALLEY TODAY. AS SUCH
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HRRR FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR EARLY
TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THE HRRR IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL FINALLY
INITIATE TO OUR WEST AND NW THIS EVENING AS REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER MO AND KS MOVES EAST. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE ENE TONIGHT...WITH THE NW PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE RANGE IN THE NW FOR TONIGHT WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH REMAINS OVER IN AND OH THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
PASSES. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER COULD HOLD
ON AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WE SHOULD BE DONE WITH PRECIPITATION
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SOME COOL
NIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
WEAK. BY MONDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY CREEP NORTH WHICH COULD
PROVIDE FUEL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT AGAIN...MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A BETTER CHANCE OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH MONDAY. BETTER
SHOT OF A SHOWER POPPING UP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT EVEN
THEN...CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
BY MONDAY AS AIRMASS MODERATES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND LOOK TO REACH THOSE LOCATIONS BETWEEN 02 AND
03Z. ANY STORMS WILL BRING TEMPORARY MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES...WHERE
STORM CHANCES ARE LOWER. THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF MVFR FOG
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z DEPENDING ON CLEARING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A THREAT OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
631 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
Solid line of convection should move bodily through west Kentucky
through the evening. The convection has weakened for now, and the
primary severe weather concern will be for winds with any more
north/south oriented portions of the line. Otherwise 30-40 mph
winds can be expected with the line along with torrential rains
and frequent lightning.
We have already cleared roughly the northwest half of the severe
watch, and we will continue to eat away at it through the evening.
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
The northwest and northern edges of the warm sector this afternoon
are lined up right on the western and northern edges of our
forecast area. Look for thunderstorm development to expand
northeast along the edge of the warm sector between I-64 and
Highway 13 in southern Illinois over the next hour or two, as the
main cluster of storms pushes east, ahead of the MCV over southwest
Missouri, and into southeast Missouri. The convection will then
march eastward across the remainder of the area into the early
evening. The latest HRRR has things over with shortly after 00Z.
Severe Watch 383 has been issued through 03Z, but figure it will
be done before then.
Still looking for multicell storms pulsing occasionally to produce
damaging winds. Not sure if there is enough shear to support or
sustain linear development, but if this happens, the damaging wind
threat would increase. Just not sure about severe hail, but would
not be surprised for some small hail. Torrential rain can be
expected with any of the storms.
Figure that the main activity will be done this evening, and
although surface winds will be west or northwest tonight, the low-
level airmass will remain quite warm and moist across at least the
southeast half of the area. Cannot rule out some convective
activity there overnight or even into Wednesday, with the main
mid/upper-level trough moving through the region.
The GFS seems to be holding back the cold advection for Wednesday,
which makes sense, so will lean closer to the warmer MAV numbers
for highs Wednesday. Much cooler, drier air is coming for
Wednesday night and Thursday. Consensus guidance seems to have a
good handle on this.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
Models continue to show high pressure in control of our weather
Friday into Saturday. Drier and milder air will accompany the high,
with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal averages and dew
points in the middle 50s to around 60 degrees. This will make for
one of the more pleasant 4th of July holidays in quite a while. By
the end of the holiday weekend, high pressure moving off the east
coast and the development of a slow moving cold front across the
Plains will lead to winds shifting back to the south. Temperatures
and moisture will quickly increase across our region, with near
normal temperatures and dew points climbing back into the middle to
upper 60s on Sunday.
GFS and ECMWF part company Sunday night. GFS generates some light
QPF across our northern and western counties associated with an
upper level wave ahead of the approaching cold front, while ECMWF
keeps our area dry. With GEM keeping any precip just north of our
region, continued with dry conditions Sunday night for now. Models
continue to waffle with precipitation chances on Monday, leaning
drier right now. We already had some low pops going, so just went
with slight chance pops across some of our west and northwest
counties for Monday. For Monday night into Tuesday, latest GFS and
ECMWF are back in better agreement, bringing the cold front
southeast and generating some precip across our northern counties by
late Monday night. Went with slight chance pops across our north
Monday night, then increased pops across the entire area on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 631 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
Thunderstorms will move out of all TAF sites by 02Z. A weak
northwest wind is expected to settle over all sites overnight, so
am not figuring on fog development overnight at this time.
VFR conditions are expected Wednesday with northwest winds, as
surface high pressure builds across the area.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
150 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
MCV CONTINUES TO SPAWN SCATTERED CONVECTION WEST OF I-75 SO WILL
KEEP WITH A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO PRECIP
TIMING AND RAIN CHANCES WERE MADE...AND TEMPS WERE RAISED A DEGREE
OR TWO WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER LIKELY KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
INITIAL CONVECTION ON OLD OUTFLOW HAS NOW EXITED THE AREA TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. MCV IS STILL EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AS IT
CHURNS TOWARD OUR AREA BUT STILL NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW THIS FEATURE
WILL BEHAVE AS IT CROSSES OUR AREA AFTER SUNSET. WILL STAY THE
COURSE WITH THE INHERITED IDEA OF AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AGAIN
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND WATCH RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE ADJUSTING TONIGHT/S FORECAST ANY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
OUTFLOW FROM THE WESTERN TN MCS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS IGNITED
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND THESE CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST. STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING NE
AT ABOUT 14 TO 18 KNOTS THUS LIMITING THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THE
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM SO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING STILL REMAINS A THREAT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES. RADAR ESTIMATES OVER
1.5 INCHES IN WHITLEY COUNTY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT A DECREASE IN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER THE REMNANT MESOSCALE CIRCULATION FROM THE TN
MCS SHOULD MOVE OVER OUR AREA TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AFTER 03Z AND THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN 7H UVV. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS IDEA THAN THE NAM...BUT CONCEPTUALLY AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
LATER TONIGHT MAKES SENSE. IN FACT THE LATEST HRRR IS ALSO SHOWING A
DECREASE IN CONVECTION EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN AN UPTICK LATER
TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA IN THE GRIDS...AND NOT
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION CYCLE.
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WE EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH CONVECTION ENDING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD OF MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A RATHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE IS ON TAP FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...JUST IN TIME FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.
TO START THE PERIOD...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED...THIS SUBTLE FEATURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS OVERHEAD
AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER POPPING UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE.
BY WEDNESDAY...A SHARP TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WE SEEM TO BE MISSING TRIGGERS...SO CONVECTION MAY NOT BE
ALL THAT WIDESPREAD. BY THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH PROBABLY THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEK. DRY...MUCH COOLER...AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SURGE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
INDEPENDENCE DAY SETTING UP A BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
DOWN INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 40S. THIS WILL PROVIDE
COOL MORNINGS WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 50S. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE 80S EACH DAY...BUT THE LACK OF HUMIDITY WON`T MAKE IT FEEL QUITE
SO BAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE NIGHT IT SEEMS.
HOWEVER...FOG CONTINUES TO BE A BIG WILD CARD. BASED ON THE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE LACK OF ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR
AT POINTS UPSTREAM...WAS APT TO TAKE OUT FOG WORDING AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IF AN AREA EXPERIENCES SIGNIFICANT CLEARING...ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS...FOG MAY STILL BECOME A FACTOR. WILL
AMMEND AS NECESSARY. WHATEVER HAPPENS...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BUT MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
933 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WHICH WILL INTRODUCE MORE HUMID AIR
TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE PASSING OUT TO SEA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930AM UPDATE...WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. EARLIER SHOWERS ACROSS ME MOUNTAINS HAVE DRIED UP. THERE
ARE CURRENTLY SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS NY
AND VT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THE ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT MORE
STABLE WITH A CAP AT ABOUT 700 MB. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NH...AND THE MOUNTAINS
OF NH AND WESTERN ME...OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. CURRENT FCST
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON SITUATION. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED.
UPDATE...A FEW TWEAKS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HAVE
BUMPED CLOUD COVER AND MOVED TIMING OF ISOLD SHRA UP IN THE MTNS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE COMBINATION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ATTM...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRES HAS SLIPPED
EWD...ALLOWING SWLY FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
INCREASE BOTH HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR TODAY. SHOULD SEE READINGS
WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS A
NOTABLE UPTICK IN DEWPOINTS MAKING THINGS A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
AWAY FROM THE WATER.
DESPITE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
IN PASSING A WEAK DISTURBANCE THRU IT THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING IS
SUBTLE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN WIDELY SCT
SHRA/TSTMS...BUT DO EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME CONVECTION IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. HRRR AND HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS THOUGHT AS WELL. WE WILL HAVE THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS FUEL...BUT FLOW IS QUITE WEAK WITHIN THE
RIDGE. SO ANY STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RNFL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...AS PWAT VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY. IN ADDITION WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE FAIRLY LOW...NOT
APPROACHING 10 KFT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GROWING
INCREASINGLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING COASTAL FOG/STRATUS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. I FEEL THAT NWP MAY BE RUSHING THINGS JUST A BIT.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS DON/T APPROACH ZERO UNTIL TUE NIGHT...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR BETTER FOG CHANCES THEN. WILL HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WHERE RH VALUES ARE GREATER THAN 95 PERCENT OVER THE
WATERS.
TRIPLE H KIND OF DAY IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUE. SW FLOW
WARM SPOTS OF SRN NH ESPECIALLY SHOULD EXCEED 90 DEGREES.
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WILL ADD TO THE DISCOMFORT. ALSO HAVE
LESS POP TUE THAN TODAY. CWFA SHOULD BE FIRMLY WITHIN THE UPPER
RIDGE BY THEN...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT
THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. FARTHER W IN
NY STATE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING...POSSIBLY STRONG...AND THIS
COULD SPILL OVER INTO WRN ZONES AS IT DECAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SCATTERED PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY THURSDAY...00Z MODEL SUITE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
OUR REGION. THIS INCREASES POPS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DURING THIS PACKAGE UPDATE.
ON FRIDAY...A SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LATEST
EURO MODEL RUN DEEPENS THIS LOW RAPIDLY AS IT PASSES TO OUR EAST.
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER SWELLS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...LEADING TO ENHANCED RIP RISK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU TUE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN
THE MTNS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA OR TSRA...ESPECIALLY THU INTO EARLY
FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SW FLOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. COLD WATER TEMPS WILL SUPPORT A SHALLOW INVERSION WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL. EXPECT ANY GUSTS TO REMAIN BELOW 25
KTS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THRU TUE...AND A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS MAY BE NECESSARY BY TUE.
LONG TERM...SLOWLY ADVANCING TROF WILL SET UP LONG DURATION
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. WIND FETCH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FEET. LONG
PERIOD SWELLS MAY ARRIVE WITH AN OFFSHORE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
723 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WHICH WILL INTRODUCE MORE HUMID AIR
TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE PASSING OUT TO SEA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A FEW TWEAKS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HAVE
BUMPED CLOUD COVER AND MOVED TIMING OF ISOLD SHRA UP IN THE MTNS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE COMBINATION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ATTM...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRES HAS SLIPPED
EWD...ALLOWING SWLY FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
INCREASE BOTH HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR TODAY. SHOULD SEE READINGS
WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS A
NOTABLE UPTICK IN DEWPOINTS MAKING THINGS A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
AWAY FROM THE WATER.
DESPITE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
IN PASSING A WEAK DISTURBANCE THRU IT THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING IS
SUBTLE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN WIDELY SCT
SHRA/TSTMS...BUT DO EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME CONVECTION IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. HRRR AND HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS THOUGHT AS WELL. WE WILL HAVE THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS FUEL...BUT FLOW IS QUITE WEAK WITHIN THE
RIDGE. SO ANY STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RNFL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...AS PWAT VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY. IN ADDITION WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE FAIRLY LOW...NOT
APPROACHING 10 KFT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GROWING
INCREASINGLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING COASTAL FOG/STRATUS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. I FEEL THAT NWP MAY BE RUSHING THINGS JUST A BIT.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS DON/T APPROACH ZERO UNTIL TUE NIGHT...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR BETTER FOG CHANCES THEN. WILL HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WHERE RH VALUES ARE GREATER THAN 95 PERCENT OVER THE
WATERS.
TRIPLE H KIND OF DAY IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUE. SW FLOW
WARM SPOTS OF SRN NH ESPECIALLY SHOULD EXCEED 90 DEGREES.
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WILL ADD TO THE DISCOMFORT. ALSO HAVE
LESS POP TUE THAN TODAY. CWFA SHOULD BE FIRMLY WITHIN THE UPPER
RIDGE BY THEN...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT
THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. FARTHER W IN
NY STATE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING...POSSIBLY STRONG...AND THIS
COULD SPILL OVER INTO WRN ZONES AS IT DECAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SCATTERED PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY THURSDAY...00Z MODEL SUITE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
OUR REGION. THIS INCREASES POPS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DURING THIS PACKAGE UPDATE.
ON FRIDAY...A SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LATEST
EURO MODEL RUN DEEPENS THIS LOW RAPIDLY AS IT PASSES TO OUR EAST.
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER SWELLS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...LEADING TO ENHANCED RIP RISK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU TUE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN
THE MTNS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA OR TSRA...ESPECIALLY THU INTO EARLY
FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SW FLOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. COLD WATER TEMPS WILL SUPPORT A SHALLOW INVERSION WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL. EXPECT ANY GUSTS TO REMAIN BELOW 25
KTS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THRU TUE...AND A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS MAY BE NECESSARY BY TUE.
LONG TERM...SLOWLY ADVANCING TROF WILL SET UP LONG DURATION
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. WIND FETCH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FEET. LONG
PERIOD SWELLS MAY ARRIVE WITH AN OFFSHORE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
520 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WHICH WILL INTRODUCE MORE HUMID AIR
TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE PASSING OUT TO SEA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ATTM...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRES HAS SLIPPED
EWD...ALLOWING SWLY FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
INCREASE BOTH HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR TODAY. SHOULD SEE READINGS
WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS A
NOTABLE UPTICK IN DEWPOINTS MAKING THINGS A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
AWAY FROM THE WATER.
DESPITE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
IN PASSING A WEAK DISTURBANCE THRU IT THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING IS
SUBTLE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN WIDELY SCT
SHRA/TSTMS...BUT DO EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME CONVECTION IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. HRRR AND HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS THOUGHT AS WELL. WE WILL HAVE THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS FUEL...BUT FLOW IS QUITE WEAK WITHIN THE
RIDGE. SO ANY STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RNFL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...AS PWAT VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY. IN ADDITION WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE FAIRLY LOW...NOT
APPROACHING 10 KFT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GROWING
INCREASINGLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING COASTAL FOG/STRATUS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. I FEEL THAT NWP MAY BE RUSHING THINGS JUST A BIT.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS DON/T APPROACH ZERO UNTIL TUE NIGHT...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR BETTER FOG CHANCES THEN. WILL HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WHERE RH VALUES ARE GREATER THAN 95 PERCENT OVER THE
WATERS.
TRIPLE H KIND OF DAY IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUE. SW FLOW
WARM SPOTS OF SRN NH ESPECIALLY SHOULD EXCEED 90 DEGREES.
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WILL ADD TO THE DISCOMFORT. ALSO HAVE
LESS POP TUE THAN TODAY. CWFA SHOULD BE FIRMLY WITHIN THE UPPER
RIDGE BY THEN...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT
THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. FARTHER W IN
NY STATE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING...POSSIBLY STRONG...AND THIS
COULD SPILL OVER INTO WRN ZONES AS IT DECAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SCATTERED PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY THURSDAY...00Z MODEL SUITE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
OUR REGION. THIS INCREASES POPS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DURING THIS PACKAGE UPDATE.
ON FRIDAY...A SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LATEST
EURO MODEL RUN DEEPENS THIS LOW RAPIDLY AS IT PASSES TO OUR EAST.
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER SWELLS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...LEADING TO ENHANCED RIP RISK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU TUE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN
THE MTNS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA OR TSRA...ESPECIALLY THU INTO EARLY
FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SW FLOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. COLD WATER TEMPS WILL SUPPORT A SHALLOW INVERSION WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL. EXPECT ANY GUSTS TO REMAIN BELOW 25
KTS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THRU TUE...AND A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS MAY BE NECESSARY BY TUE.
LONG TERM...SLOWLY ADVANCING TROF WILL SET UP LONG DURATION
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. WIND FETCH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FEET. LONG
PERIOD SWELLS MAY ARRIVE WITH AN OFFSHORE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
LEGRO/JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
258 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WHICH WILL INTRODUCE MORE HUMID AIR
TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE PASSING OUT TO SEA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ATTM...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
MILDER TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRES HAS SLIPPED EWD...ALLOWING SWLY FLOW
TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE BOTH HEAT AND HUMIDITY
FOR TODAY. SHOULD SEE READINGS WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA...AS WELL AS A NOTABLE UPTICK IN DEWPOINTS MAKING THINGS
A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE WATER.
DESPITE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
IN PASSING A WEAK DISTURBANCE THRU IT THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING IS
SUBTLE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN WIDELY SCT
SHRA/TSTMS...BUT DO EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME CONVECTION IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. HRRR AND HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS THOUGHT AS WELL. WE WILL HAVE THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS FUEL...BUT FLOW IS QUITE WEAK WITHIN THE
RIDGE. SO ANY STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RNFL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...AS PWAT VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY. IN ADDITION WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE FAIRLY LOW...NOT
APPROACHING 10 KFT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GROWING
INCREASINGLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING COASTAL FOG/STRATUS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. I FEEL THAT NWP MAY BE RUSHING THINGS JUST A BIT.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS DON/T APPROACH ZERO UNTIL TUE NIGHT...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR BETTER FOG CHANCES THEN. WILL HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WHERE RH VALUES ARE GREATER THAN 95 PERCENT OVER THE
WATERS.
TRIPLE H KIND OF DAY IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUE. SW FLOW
WARM SPOTS OF SRN NH ESPECIALLY SHOULD EXCEED 90 DEGREES.
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WILL ADD TO THE DISCOMFORT. ALSO HAVE
LESS POP TUE THAN TODAY. CWFA SHOULD BE FIRMLY WITHIN THE UPPER
RIDGE BY THEN...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT
THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. FARTHER W IN
NY STATE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING...POSSIBLY STRONG...AND THIS
COULD SPILL OVER INTO WRN ZONES AS IT DECAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SCATTERED PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY THURSDAY...00Z MODEL SUITE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
OUR REGION. THIS INCREASES POPS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DURING THIS PACKAGE UPDATE.
ON FRIDAY...A SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LATEST
EURO MODEL RUN DEEPENS THIS LOW RAPIDLY AS IT PASSES TO OUR EAST.
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER SWELLS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...LEADING TO ENHANCED RIP RISK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU TUE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN
THE MTNS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA OR TSRA...ESPECIALLY THU INTO EARLY
FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SW FLOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. COLD WATER TEMPS WILL SUPPORT A SHALLOW INVERSION WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL. EXPECT ANY GUSTS TO REMAIN BELOW 25
KTS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THRU TUE...AND A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS MAY BE NECESSARY BY TUE.
LONG TERM...SLOWLY ADVANCING TROF WILL SET UP LONG DURATION
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. WIND FETCH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FEET. LONG
PERIOD SWELLS MAY ARRIVE WITH AN OFFSHORE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
LEGRO/JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
842 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH...HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND
COMFORTABLE WEATHER WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MIGHTILY STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THE LACK OF
A COHERENT LIFTING MECHANISM TO OVERCOME THE LACK OF INSTABILITY
BELOW THE 10 KFT LEVEL. AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN A BIT
LESS THAN PROLIFIC.
THE SITUATION MAY CHANGE A BIT GOING INTO THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE THAT
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD OF THE LINE OF ONGOING CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTHWEST CHANNELS HIGHER CAPE VALUES UP IT. CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS
INDICATES ROUGHLY 2800-3400 J/KG OF ML CAPE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR
THAT EXTENDS INTO EASTERN OHIO ALONG WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES IN
THE -8 TO -9 RANGE. RAP SOUNDINGS AND 18Z NAM DATA SUGGEST FAIRLY
MARKED COOLING AROUND 700 MB ACROSS OHIO FROM ROUGHLY +11C THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF +6C BY AROUND 09Z. WITH FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL ML CAPE VALUES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...AND THE LIKELY
PERSISTENCE OF A CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE RUNNING FROM
EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT...IT WOULD SEEM
SOME EXPANSION OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS
PROBABLE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR OVERNIGHT EVIDENT ON ALL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE PERSISTENCE
OF A NARROW BUT FAIRLY COHERENT CORRIDOR OF MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAT EXTENDS FROM KENTUCKY UP INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE
CHANCES OF THUNDER TO LOOK A BIT BETTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
OVERNIGHT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES SEEM RATHER DISMAL AS AT
LEAST MODEST DECOUPLING IS LIKELY BEFORE CONVECTION REACHES THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
WITH THAT SAID...POPS WERE ALTERED TO REFLECT AN ENHANCEMENT IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD ON THE ORDER OF 5 OR
MORE DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD AS THE TREND CERTAINLY IS NOT OF
REDUCTION BUT RATHER LOCAL INCREASE DUE TO RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
WITH SAID INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS...LOW TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS
WERE ALSO INCREASED DRAMATICALLY...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.
FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THAT BNDRY IS FORECAST TO STALL OVR THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRES MOVS ALONG THE FRONT. CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED AREAWIDE
GIVEN SHAKY CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL FRONTAL POSITION. GIVEN THAT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WL HAVE IMPROVED WITH THE ADVN OF THE UPR TROF...A
SLGT SVR RISK WAS FORECAST BY SPC. AGAIN...WITH BNDRY POSITION IN
QN...ESPECIALLY AFTR THIS EVES CONVECTION AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW...AS
WELL AS WITH QNABLE SHRTWV TIMING...HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO ACT ON THAT
POTENTIAL JUST YET.
EITHER WAY...BY THURSDAY...CDFNT AND UPR TROF WL COMPLETE PASSAGE
ACRS THE REGION AND USHER IN A PD OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS FORECAST TO BE DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE UNDER WNW FLOW...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND NR
AVG TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD
INCREASE BY MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...SAVE
FOR THE TERMINALS THAT SEE A THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT. AN AREA OF WEAK
CONVERGENCE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA IS GENERATING SOME LATE EVENING
CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SPATIALLY TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BUILD THROUGH CENTRAL OH AND DRIFT
EAST THROUGH ABOUT 06-08Z. MULTIPLE WAVES THROUGH WEDS EVENING
WILL KEEP THREAT OF RESTRICTIONS AROUND...BUT OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE.
.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1159 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH...HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND COMFORTABLE
WEATHER WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE TDA ALTHOUGH UPR AIR
ANALYSIS AND MDLS INDICATE CHANGES AS DRIER AIR HAS BEEN ADVECTING
INTO THE MID LVLS OF UPR OH VALLEY AIRSPACE. PWS HAVE THUS
DIMINISHED...BUT POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS HAS INCREASED VIA
EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DVLP. THAT CHC LKS
SLIM AS MID LVL TEMPS ARE VERY WARM OVR THE REGION...ABOUT 2
DEGREES ABOVE THE THERMAL TROF VALUES THAT DEFINED LAST EVES
SHRTWV PASSAGE.
NR TERM ADJUSTMENTS THUS FEATURE AN UPWARD TEMP ADJUSTMENT AND SLGT
CHC/ISOLD POPS FOR THE AFTN...WITH A SMALL INCRS TO CHC/SCT NMBRS
FOR THE EVE BASED ON INDICATIONS OF SOME IMPROVED FORCING VIA A
WEAK SHRTWV.
DIFFERENCE BTN INCOMING MDLS WL BE OF INTEREST GIVEN DISPARITIES
IN EARLY MRNG SOLNS AS RAP INDICATED MUCH DRIER SFC DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT TDA THAN PROJECTED BY NAM. THAT FEW DEGREE DIFFERENCE
IS SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE CAPABILITY TDA...AND TRENDS
WL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN CHCS WL BE ON THE INCRS TUESDAY WITH THE APPRCH OF A
CDFNT/UPR TROF. INCRSD SHEAR WITHIN THE ADVNG BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY
SPPRT SOME SVR STORMS...BUT TIMING OF THE IMPROVED WIND FIELD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS RMN IN DISPUTE. SPC HAS
PROJECTED A SLIGHT 15 PERCENT RISK WHICH WL BE REFINED DURING THE
NXT 24 HOURS. AT ANY RATE...LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED UNTIL THE ANTICIPATED FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE EVE.
THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE STALLED NR THE RIDGES ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES ALNG THE BNDRY. THAT SCENARIO WOULD
MAINTAIN POPS FOR THOSE AREA INTO THURSDAY...WHILE WRN ZONES OF
THE CNTY WRNG AREA WL DRY AND COOL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE.
THIS SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
TEMPS AOB THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT
SLGT...TO CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS MAY SPAWN SOME RESTRICTIONS LTR TDA
AND THIS EVE. AT THIS POINT...WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HAVE REMOVED VCTS AT ALL SITES.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE REGION.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
944 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH...HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND COMFORTABLE
WEATHER WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE TDA ALTHOUGH UPR AIR
ANALYSIS AND MDLS INDICATE CHANGES AS DRIER AIR HAS BEEN ADVECTING
INTO THE MID LVLS OF UPR OH VALLEY AIRSPACE. PWS HAVE THUS
DIMINISHED...BUT POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS HAS INCREASED VIA
EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DVLP. THAT CHC LKS
SLIM AS MID LVL TEMPS ARE VERY WARM OVR THE REGION...ABOUT 2
DEGREES ABOVE THE THERMAL TROF VALUES THAT DEFINED LAST EVES
SHRTWV PASSAGE.
NR TERM ADJUSTMENTS THUS FEATURE AN UPWARD TEMP ADJUSTMENT AND SLGT
CHC/ISOLD POPS FOR THE AFTN...WITH A SMALL INCRS TO CHC/SCT NMBRS
FOR THE EVE BASED ON INDICATIONS OF SOME IMPROVED FORCING VIA A
WEAK SHRTWV.
DIFFERENCE BTN INCOMING MDLS WL BE OF INTEREST GIVEN DISPARITIES
IN EARLY MRNG SOLNS AS RAP INDICATED MUCH DRIER SFC DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT TDA THAN PROJECTED BY NAM. THAT FEW DEGREE DIFFERENCE
IS SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE CAPABILITY TDA...AND TRENDS
WL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN CHCS WL BE ON THE INCRS TUESDAY WITH THE APPRCH OF A
CDFNT/UPR TROF. INCRSD SHEAR WITHIN THE ADVNG BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY
SPPRT SOME SVR STORMS...BUT TIMING OF THE IMPROVED WIND FIELD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS RMN IN DISPUTE. SPC HAS
PROJECTED A SLIGHT 15 PERCENT RISK WHICH WL BE REFINED DURING THE
NXT 24 HOURS. AT ANY RATE...LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED UNTIL THE ANTICIPATED FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE EVE.
THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE STALLED NR THE RIDGES ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES ALNG THE BNDRY. THAT SCENARIO WOULD
MAINTAIN POPS FOR THOSE AREA INTO THURSDAY...WHILE WRN ZONES OF
THE CNTY WRNG AREA WL DRY AND COOL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE.
THIS SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
TEMPS AOB THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR AND IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
MIDDAY...BUT SLGT...TO CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS MAY SPAWN SOME
RESTRICTIONS LTR TDA AND THIS EVE. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY VCTS AT
ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE REGION.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
756 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
WITH A LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN NEAR JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS /WITH
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/ HAVE DEVELOPS OVER WRN UPPER MI AND
EXTEND BACK INTO NWRN WI WHERE GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE. THE LAKE BREEZE CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR
MOVING ONSHORE OVER ERN MARQUETTE/WRN ALGER COUNTIES...AND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AND MOVE INLAND E OF MARQUETTE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS CAPE AND SHEAR ARE LIMITED...AND ONLY ISOLATED
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. OVERALL...STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO HRRR QPF
OUTPUT FOR POPS AS IT HAS BEEN TRACKING FAIRLY WELL TODAY. AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI THIS EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT...GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL RESULT IN THESE AREAS.
OVER NW UPPER MI...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE REGIONS FROM THE NW WINDS.
VERY DRY AIR LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW TOMORROW...ERODING
CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND
OF CLEARING THE CLOUDS OUT FASTER AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FASTER
WITH THE INTRUSION OF THE DRY AIR. HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA BY 18Z WED. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WITH TEMPS AROUND 6C
WILL PASS OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY WED...WHICH WILL KEEP INLAND
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND MOST LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS IN THE
50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
MID 30S ARE STILL LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI TO
START OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRIEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD
00-06Z THURSDAY...BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 30-40 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE DRIEST AIR WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING TO
THE SE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
N AND CENTRAL PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7C ON LIGHT
N-NNW FLOW. IN FACT...PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 70 PERCENT
OF NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY FRIDAY. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
COMMON EACH AFTERNOON UNDER LIGHT WINDS AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FROM 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.
AS FOR SPECIFICS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S ON THURSDAY...ABOUT 5F WARMER THAN THOSE REALIZED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL AROUND 5F BELOW OF SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. DRY
AIR ALLOW FOR RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON HOVERING NEAR 25 PERCENT.
ON A POSITIVE NOTE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS BELOW
10KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS NEARING 15KTS ON THE LAKE BREEZE SWINGING
IN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. A SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN ON THE WNW FLOW ALOFT
MAY BRING ABOUT A FEW CLOUDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT LIKELY
MORE NO MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
LOOK FOR THE RETURN OF SW WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH EXITS
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND A SIZABLE SFC
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR OF SHOWERS /ISOLATED TS/ FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS ON SATURDAY TO BE ADJUSTED UP A COUPLE
DEGREES...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED AND 850MB TEMPS
JUMPING UP TO 14-16C. 70S AND 80S WILL BE COMMON. THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND MAY BE A BIT WETTER. THE SPECIFICS ABOUT WHEN AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO
KEEP A LOW CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...SO WILL KEEP A GENERAL BLEND
GOING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
INSTABILITY SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG SFC TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL U.P. AND AFFECTING PRIMARILY KSAW OF THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AT
KSAW UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
HELPS PUSH SFC TROUGH BOUNDARY SE OF THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE SFC
TROUGH WILL LEAD TO CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR AGGRESSIVELY MOVES IN WED
MORNING...LEADING TO CLEARING FROM NW TO SE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25KTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY...WITH THE MARINE LAYER HELPING TO KEEP WINDS IN CHECK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND GENERALLY UNDER 20KTS.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
PRODUCE WINDS BELOW 15KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST THIS WEEKEND...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BUT THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
FINALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
141 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WSW FLOW OVER THE
UPR LKS ARND UNSEASONABLY DEEP CLOSED LO CENTERED NEAR LK WINNIPEG.
A SHRTWV THAT ROTATED ACRS NRN LK SUP EARLY THIS MRNG GENERATED SOME
SHOWERS/TS OVER THE CWA EARLIER...BUT VIGOROUS H85-7 DRY ADVCTN
DOWNSTREAM OF VERY DRY 00Z MPX RAOB /WHERE THE 00Z PWAT WAS NEAR
0.75 INCH OR ABOUT 85 PCT OF NORMAL/ AND DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
AS WELL AS NOCTURNAL COOLING HAVE ENDED THIS PCPN. HOWEVER...STEEP
LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB HAVE ALLOWED SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/TS TO POP UP FM TIME TO TIME OVER NCENTRAL WI AND CENTRAL
UPR MI DESPITE THE LARGER SCALE DRYING TRENDS/NOCTURNAL COOLING.
ANOTHER LARGER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TS IS PRESENT OVER SE WI...WHERE
THE SHRTWV IN SCENTRAL MN IS INTERACTING WITH AREA OF HIER H85-7
DEWPTS ON SE FLANK OF DRY WEDGE PUSHING INTO UPR MI. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...THERE ARE SEVERAL SHRTWVS MOVING EWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS
IN THE WLY FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF CLOSED LO.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME ARE SHOWER/TS CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY LATE TODAY/TNGT WHEN A STRONGER SHRTWV ROTATING ARND THE
CLOSED LO IS FCST TO MOVE THRU THE UPR MIDWEST.
EARLY THIS MRNG/TODAY...DRY AIR SWEEPING ENEWD WITH H85-5 MEAN LYR
RH DOWN TO 30-40 PCT SHOULD ENSURE DRY WX FOR MOST OF THE CWA THIS
MRNG EVEN THOUGH SHRTWV NOW IN MN AND ASSOCIATED DPVA/SOME DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW OVER SCENTRAL MN WL SWING
ACRS THE AREA. HOWEVER...DID ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING ISOLD
SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA THRU ABOUT 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SHRTWV/FORCING/STEEP H85-5 LAPSE RATES UP TO 8-8.5C/KM. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD END FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ARRIVAL OF
DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC. PCPN CHCS WL INCRS LATER IN THE AFTN
WITH APRCH OF STRONGER SHRTWV ROTATING ARND THE SSE FLANK OF CLOSED
LO SLOWLY DRIFTING INTO FAR NW ONTARIO. AS THE H85 WINDS BACK A BIT
WITH THE APRCH OF THIS STRONGER DISTURBANCE...MODELS INDICATE HIER
H85-7 DEWPTS/WL SURGE NEWD INTO MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. IN
CONCERT WITH ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV AND H4-2 DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET MAX MOVING THRU
NW LK SUP...WL CONT TO SHOW INCRSG POPS OVER MAINLY THE SCENTRAL
LATE IN THE DAY. CONSIDERING THE RATHER IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS/MSTR
RETURN THAT IS FCST TO LIFT PWAT CLOSE TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SCENTRAL
BY 00Z /175 PCT OF NORMAL/...PREFER THE HIER POPS A BIT FARTHER TO
THE W/HIER QPF SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM/REGIONAL CNDN MODEL. AS FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT THE HIEST TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WHERE THERE
WL BE MORE SUNSHINE THRU MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL CLDS BEGIN TO INCRS
THIS AFTN. DEEP MIXING TO H75 WL SUPPORT HI TEMPS APRCHG 85 AND
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO MIX TO THE SFC.
TNGT...VIGOROUS DYNAMICS/MSTR RETURN ARE FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE
SE 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD AND JUSTIFY SOME CATEGORICAL
POPS OVER THE SE CWA IN THE EVNG BEFORE DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/MID LVL DRYING RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV PASSAGE.
CONSIDERING THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPR DYNAMICS...THERE IS SOME
CONCERN AS TO WHETHER ANY OF THE TS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE
LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWS UPR MI JUST N OF THE THE SLGT
RISK AREA. THE BEST CHC FOR SOME SVR TS WOULD BE WHEN THE DYNAMICS
ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTN WHEN LLVL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL STEEP/DCAPE
WOULD BE HIER FOLLOWING THE DAYTIME HEATING AND WHEN THE LLVL
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE A UNIDIRECTIONAL SW AND AS HI AS 50 KTS AT
H7. GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. DURING THIS EVNG...HEAVY
RA LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH RATHER HI FRZG LVL NEAR 13K FT/
MARGINAL MID LVL LAPSE RATES DESPITE SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALF.
ARRVIAL OF SOME COOLER AIR/MID LVL DRYING WL ALLOW TEMPS OVER THE W
TO FALL INTO THE 50S TNGT. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR OVER
THE E LATE WITH SOME MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING DEPARTING SHRTWV OVER
THE RA MOISTENED LLVLS WITH SW FLOW OFF LK MI.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER ONTARIO AND THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS ON TUESDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND BE PULLING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND LOW CENTER TO QUICKLY
BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO ON TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW IN ONTARIO WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...LEADING TO
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SHOWER COVERAGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAND
AREAS AROUND NOON ON TUESDAY AND SPREAD IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THINK THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY
ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME HELP FROM
CONVERGENCE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CHANCE OR
LOW END LIKELY VALUES IN THOSE AREAS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...COVERAGE
IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO INDICATIONS OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS A
LITTLE MORE WESTERLY (OR EVEN NORTHWESTERLY) AND BRING IN MORE
STABLE AIR FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. THINK THAT WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA DRY AND WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCES FOR
THE REST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE ONLY AROUND 5-6 C/KM...HELPING TO LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL
AND KEEPING ML CAPES GENERALLY BELOW 200 J/KG. THUS...WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP THUNDER CHANCES CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCES (ALTHOUGH WITH THE
LATEST TRENDS THAT MAY BE GENEROUS). IN ADDITION...IT WILL BE BREEZY
OVER THE KEWEENAW ON TUESDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT (950-925MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS) WILL LEAD TO GUSTS
AROUND 30KTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH THE MARINE
LAYER MAY TRY TO HOLD SOME OF THE WINDS AT BAY NEAR THE SHORELINE.
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...A PERIOD OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW...THINK THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE NW HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. DON/T EXPECT THE AMOUNTS TO BE ANYTHING TOO
IMPRESSIVE...A FEW HUNDREDTHS...BUT WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM GOGEBIC COUNTY THROUGH THE KEWEENAW AND ALSO
HIGHER TERRAIN OF BARAGA AND WESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY. EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO CUT OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AROUND DAYBREAK...AS MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EXPECT THE
AFTERNOON TO BE SUNNY FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL (WHERE THERE
COULD BE SOME LINGERING DIURNAL CU). WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY...THERE MAY BE AN ELEVATED SWIM RISK FOR ALGER COUNTY
BEACHES. BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
50S...THE AMOUNT OF SWIMMERS WILL BE LIMITED IN THE LOW 40 DEGREE
WATER TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND
IN THE 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT A RIDGE EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE COOLER AND GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY LEAD TO SOME
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. EXPECT THE LOWEST LOW TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PWATS AROUND 40 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LIKED THE TREND
SHOWN BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT (TOWARDS THE BETTER PERFORMING MEX
GUIDANCE ON RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS) AND WILL CONTINUE THAT IDEA.
THAT GIVES LOWS FOR SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS OUT WEST IN THE LOWER 40S
AND UPPER 30S. SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY WARMING HIGHS/LOWS FOR THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE 4TH OF JULY STILL LOOKS TO BE A GREAT DAY
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL (70S) UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH A
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. THAT IS
TO BE EXPECTED AND LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WILL SHOW GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES INCREASING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM
THE HIGH KEEPING THE EAST DRY. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TEMPS TO MORE NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES AND ALSO PRODUCE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. SUNDAY VARIES
TOO...SO WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AND LEADS TO POPS
SIMILAR TO CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE INTO LATE AFTN. GUSTY WINDS ARE BECOMING THE
MAIN ISSUE WITH GUSTS ALREADY OBSERVED WELL OVER 30 KTS AT KIWD AND
KCMX. EXPECT GUSTS OVER 35 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTN. A DISTURBANCE
LIFTING ENE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND INCREASING MOISTURE
COULD RESULT IN SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA AT KSAW THIS EVENING. BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH THOUGH...SO LEFT TSRA MENTION OUT OF KSAW
TAF ATTM. SEEMS THAT KIWD AND KCMX WILL BE ON EDGE OF BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHRA. SHRA END AT KSAW AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND WITH THE DRYING
ALOFT FOLLOWS THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE...SOME FOG/LO CLDS AND IFR
CONDITIONS MAY DVLP AT SAW OVER THE RA MOISTENED LLVLS IN THE
PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. MORE LLVL MSTR WRAPPING INTO THE WRN
U.P. IN A CYC...UPSLOPE WLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO BRING SOME MVFR CIGS
TO ALL THE TAF SITES ON TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE MERGING WITH A
SECONDARY LOW NEAR JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW 25KTS. WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN END TO THE FOG POTENTIAL AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
PARENT HIGH SHIFTS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
103 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS TSRA ACTIVITY OVER IOWA SLATED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND AFFECT THE SE MI TERMINALS AROUND 03-09Z.
THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE IN THE 03-10Z TIMEFRAME WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. DO NOT SEE ANY RESTRICTIONS
TO VSBY OR CIG BEFORE THAT TIME. THE THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS TOO SLIM TO MENTION IN TAFS.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS AND TIMING TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1115 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
UPDATE...
STILL TRACKING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. 12Z OBS AND MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUE THE
PREVIOUS TRAIN OF THOUGHT WITH HIGH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THAT LACK A FORCING MECHANISM. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MCS RACING
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TAP INTO SLIGHTLY LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
BULK SHEER INCREASES LATE NIGHT AS WELL WITH 0-6KM VALUES NEAR
60KT IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY. 12Z NAM OUTPUT SPORTED A 5500 J/KG POWDER
KEG AT 21Z IN KLAN...BUT BASED OFF OF A BRAVADO 86/76 SURFACE
PARCEL. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME WITH ORGANIZED BOW ECHO/DERECHO MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA 04-10Z. SUPPORT FOR DERECHO THREAT INCLUDES RIGHT
REAR 115KT JET SUPPORT...LLJ OF 40-50KT AT H85 AND 55-65KT AT H5.
REMNANT JUICY CAPE OF 2500 J/KG AND DCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ACCELERATING COLD POOLS. HRRR ...ARW...AND NMM HI-
RES MODELS ALL POINT TO A SIMILAR SOLUTION TONIGHT WITH DIFFERING
STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF MULTICELL LINE/CLUSTERS MOVING THROUGH
THE CWA.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 708 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING RAIN CHANCES AS OVERNIGHT MCS TO
THE WEST HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN AND INDIANA
STATE LINE.
WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TODAY AS DEW POINTS
HOLD CLOSE TO 70 AND TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS
THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ACTIVITY WILL TRACK IN FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE REMAINS IN QUESTION. THE LATER IT ARRIVES...THE LESS
ORGANIZED/SEVERE THE CONVECTION WILL BE.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 316 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHILE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MCS EXTENDING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST 3 OR 4 HOURS...AND MODELS SUGGEST THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING AS THE ACTIVITY OUTRUNS ITS SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL
JET...IT APPEARS SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE FADING DURING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUM
FOR CONVECTION AFTER SUNRISE. WILL REDRAW POPS TO ADJUST FOR THESE
TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MOST LIKELY
RE-DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG OUTFLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM AND
ALSO IMMEDIATELY ALONG LAKE/LAND INTERFACE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED WITH SPARSE COVERAGE GIVEN LACK OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING.
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ENCROACHES ON THE AREA AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
PIVOTS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AROUND UPPER
LOW PRESSURE STILL CENTERED NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE TO OUR WEST AS THE AFFECTS OF THIS WAVE
COINCIDE WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THAT SAID...EXPECT THE LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT DOES
EVOLVE OUT OF INITIAL SEVERE CONVECTION TO RACE INTO THE AREA BY
EVENING...PROBABLY FASTER THAN MODELS SUGGEST AS EXPANDING SYSTEM
DEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL WITH TIME. INSTABILITY WILL STILL
BE RATHER IMPRESSIVE DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING GIVEN THE INFLUX OF
WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH LIKELY FROM MID/LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH SBCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG BY LATE IN THE DAY AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR INCREASING FROM 25-35 KTS TO AROUND 45 KTS DURING THE
COURSE OF THE EVENING...EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER TO BE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY. THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...WILL BE
DICTATED BY HOW CURRENT CONVECTION INFLUENCES ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
AND HENCE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OF MAIN MCS IN QUESTION LATER TODAY.
WITH ANY LUCK...THE ARRIVAL INTO THE AREA SEVERAL HOURS AFTER PEAK
HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST WEAKENING OF OVERALL CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.
LONG TERM...
LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL BUCKLE EARLY IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS, THE STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL
TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AND BE SWEPT NORTHEAST AS LONGWAVE
TROUGHING AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES, BRINGING MARKEDLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK. OCCASIONAL LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE FLOW WILL BRING EPISODIC CLOUD COVER OR SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON`S SEVERE
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS PROGGED TO BE BISECTING
THE CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED FRONT
AND INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING ALONE WARRANTS LOW CHANCE POPS BEFORE
THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST BY AROUND 18Z. IN REALITY, THE REGIONAL
ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE UNDERGONE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION
COURTESY OF TODAY/TONIGHT`S WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE EPISODE. COULD SEE
ANYTHING RANGING FROM CONVECTIVE REMNANTS BEING SWEPT INTO THE CWA
WITHIN DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DRY CONDITIONS OWING TO
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION. MOST PRUDENT PLAY AT THIS TIME
APPEARS TO BE FOR 30-40 TYPE POPS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY, ENDING PRECIP CHANCES BY AFTERNOON AND CAPPING HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S.
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE IS THEN FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE
QUITE LIMITED, PERHAPS 500 J/KG, AS DEWPOINTS FALL TO AROUND 60F.
HOWEVER, SUPERPOSITION OF DYNAMIC FORCING WITH ONGOING LIGHT COLD
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
AGGRESSIVE EXPANSION OF DIURNAL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE.
SECONDARY WAVE OF COLD ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF WEDNESDAY`S WAVE. BY THURSDAY MORNING, H85 TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO BE SOLIDLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, OF WHICH THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY GIVEN ONGOING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND CONTINUED CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THUS, SIDED WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOWS MOST SPOTS DIPPING DOWN INTO 50S BY THURSDAY MORNING...PERHAPS
UPPER 40S IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY.
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE LIMITED ON THURSDAY OWING THE POSITION
OF THE THERMAL TROUGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEALTHY BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 70S...UPPER 60S IN THE THUMB. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SETTLE IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
GRADUAL AIRMASS RECOVERY WILL LEAD TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK UNTIL
A COLD FRONT TURNS WINDS MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOWS COOLER AIR
TO OVERSPREAD AREA WATERS. WITH NO NOTEWORTHY WIND EVENTS ON THE
HORIZON...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH
WILL PLAGUE THE AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF
STORMS OVER THE WATERS IS UNCERTAIN...A FEW SEVERE STORMS IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MM
UPDATE.......MM
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1115 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.UPDATE...
STILL TRACKING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. 12Z OBS AND MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUE THE
PREVIOUS TRAIN OF THOUGHT WITH HIGH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THAT LACK A FORCING MECHANISM. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MCS RACING
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TAP INTO SLIGHTLY LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
BULK SHEER INCREASES LATE NIGHT AS WELL WITH 0-6KM VALUES NEAR
60KT IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY. 12Z NAM OUTPUT SPORTED A 5500 J/KG POWDER
KEG AT 21Z IN KLAN...BUT BASED OFF OF A BRAVADO 86/76 SURFACE
PARCEL. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME WITH ORGANIZED BOW ECHO/DERECHO MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA 04-10Z. SUPPORT FOR DERECHO THREAT INCLUDES RIGHT
REAR 115KT JET SUPPORT...LLJ OF 40-50KT AT H85 AND 55-65KT AT H5.
REMNANT JUICY CAPE OF 2500 J/KG AND DCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ACCELERATING COLD POOLS. HRRR ...ARW...AND NMM HI-
RES MODELS ALL POINT TO A SIMILAR SOLUTION TONIGHT WITH DIFFERING
STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF MULTICELL LINE/CLUSTERS MOVING THROUGH
THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 847 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
//DISCUSSION...
DISSIPATING MCS WILL PROVIDE BKN-OVC CIRRUS DECK AND A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS EARLY IN THE FORECAST. THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEMS
DEMISE AND OVERALL LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...BUT EXPECT RE-NEWED STORM CHANCES BY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE BRINGS ANOTHER MCS
INTO AREA. THIS SYSTEM...WHILE IT WILL MOST LIKELY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
AS WELL...SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND TIMING LATE TODAY
WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE TONIGHT.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 708 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING RAIN CHANCES AS OVERNIGHT MCS TO
THE WEST HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN AND INDIANA
STATE LINE.
WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TODAY AS DEW POINTS
HOLD CLOSE TO 70 AND TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS
THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ACTIVITY WILL TRACK IN FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE REMAINS IN QUESTION. THE LATER IT ARRIVES...THE LESS
ORGANIZED/SEVERE THE CONVECTION WILL BE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 316 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHILE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MCS EXTENDING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST 3 OR 4 HOURS...AND MODELS SUGGEST THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING AS THE ACTIVITY OUTRUNS ITS SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL
JET...IT APPEARS SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE FADING DURING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUM
FOR CONVECTION AFTER SUNRISE. WILL REDRAW POPS TO ADJUST FOR THESE
TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MOST LIKELY
RE-DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG OUTFLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM AND
ALSO IMMEDIATELY ALONG LAKE/LAND INTERFACE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED WITH SPARSE COVERAGE GIVEN LACK OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING.
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ENCROACHES ON THE AREA AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
PIVOTS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AROUND UPPER
LOW PRESSURE STILL CENTERED NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE TO OUR WEST AS THE AFFECTS OF THIS WAVE
COINCIDE WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THAT SAID...EXPECT THE LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT DOES
EVOLVE OUT OF INITIAL SEVERE CONVECTION TO RACE INTO THE AREA BY
EVENING...PROBABLY FASTER THAN MODELS SUGGEST AS EXPANDING SYSTEM
DEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL WITH TIME. INSTABILITY WILL STILL
BE RATHER IMPRESSIVE DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING GIVEN THE INFLUX OF
WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH LIKELY FROM MID/LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH SBCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG BY LATE IN THE DAY AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR INCREASING FROM 25-35 KTS TO AROUND 45 KTS DURING THE
COURSE OF THE EVENING...EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER TO BE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY. THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...WILL BE
DICTATED BY HOW CURRENT CONVECTION INFLUENCES ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
AND HENCE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OF MAIN MCS IN QUESTION LATER TODAY.
WITH ANY LUCK...THE ARRIVAL INTO THE AREA SEVERAL HOURS AFTER PEAK
HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST WEAKENING OF OVERALL CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.
LONG TERM...
LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL BUCKLE EARLY IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS, THE STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL
TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AND BE SWEPT NORTHEAST AS LONGWAVE
TROUGHING AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES, BRINGING MARKEDLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK. OCCASIONAL LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE FLOW WILL BRING EPISODIC CLOUD COVER OR SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON`S SEVERE
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS PROGGED TO BE BISECTING
THE CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED FRONT
AND INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING ALONE WARRANTS LOW CHANCE POPS BEFORE
THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST BY AROUND 18Z. IN REALITY, THE REGIONAL
ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE UNDERGONE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION
COURTESY OF TODAY/TONIGHT`S WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE EPISODE. COULD SEE
ANYTHING RANGING FROM CONVECTIVE REMNANTS BEING SWEPT INTO THE CWA
WITHIN DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DRY CONDITIONS OWING TO
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION. MOST PRUDENT PLAY AT THIS TIME
APPEARS TO BE FOR 30-40 TYPE POPS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY, ENDING PRECIP CHANCES BY AFTERNOON AND CAPPING HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S.
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE IS THEN FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE
QUITE LIMITED, PERHAPS 500 J/KG, AS DEWPOINTS FALL TO AROUND 60F.
HOWEVER, SUPERPOSITION OF DYNAMIC FORCING WITH ONGOING LIGHT COLD
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
AGGRESSIVE EXPANSION OF DIURNAL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE.
SECONDARY WAVE OF COLD ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF WEDNESDAY`S WAVE. BY THURSDAY MORNING, H85 TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO BE SOLIDLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, OF WHICH THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY GIVEN ONGOING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND CONTINUED CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THUS, SIDED WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOWS MOST SPOTS DIPPING DOWN INTO 50S BY THURSDAY MORNING...PERHAPS
UPPER 40S IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY.
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE LIMITED ON THURSDAY OWING THE POSITION
OF THE THERMAL TROUGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEALTHY BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 70S...UPPER 60S IN THE THUMB. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SETTLE IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
GRADUAL AIRMASS RECOVERY WILL LEAD TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK UNTIL
A COLD FRONT TURNS WINDS MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOWS COOLER AIR
TO OVERSPREAD AREA WATERS. WITH NO NOTEWORTHY WIND EVENTS ON THE
HORIZON...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH
WILL PLAGUE THE AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF
STORMS OVER THE WATERS IS UNCERTAIN...A FEW SEVERE STORMS IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......MM
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
732 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WSW FLOW OVER THE
UPR LKS ARND UNSEASONABLY DEEP CLOSED LO CENTERED NEAR LK WINNIPEG.
A SHRTWV THAT ROTATED ACRS NRN LK SUP EARLY THIS MRNG GENERATED SOME
SHOWERS/TS OVER THE CWA EARLIER...BUT VIGOROUS H85-7 DRY ADVCTN
DOWNSTREAM OF VERY DRY 00Z MPX RAOB /WHERE THE 00Z PWAT WAS NEAR
0.75 INCH OR ABOUT 85 PCT OF NORMAL/ AND DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
AS WELL AS NOCTURNAL COOLING HAVE ENDED THIS PCPN. HOWEVER...STEEP
LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB HAVE ALLOWED SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/TS TO POP UP FM TIME TO TIME OVER NCENTRAL WI AND CENTRAL
UPR MI DESPITE THE LARGER SCALE DRYING TRENDS/NOCTURNAL COOLING.
ANOTHER LARGER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TS IS PRESENT OVER SE WI...WHERE
THE SHRTWV IN SCENTRAL MN IS INTERACTING WITH AREA OF HIER H85-7
DEWPTS ON SE FLANK OF DRY WEDGE PUSHING INTO UPR MI. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...THERE ARE SEVERAL SHRTWVS MOVING EWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS
IN THE WLY FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF CLOSED LO.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME ARE SHOWER/TS CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY LATE TODAY/TNGT WHEN A STRONGER SHRTWV ROTATING ARND THE
CLOSED LO IS FCST TO MOVE THRU THE UPR MIDWEST.
EARLY THIS MRNG/TODAY...DRY AIR SWEEPING ENEWD WITH H85-5 MEAN LYR
RH DOWN TO 30-40 PCT SHOULD ENSURE DRY WX FOR MOST OF THE CWA THIS
MRNG EVEN THOUGH SHRTWV NOW IN MN AND ASSOCIATED DPVA/SOME DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW OVER SCENTRAL MN WL SWING
ACRS THE AREA. HOWEVER...DID ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING ISOLD
SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA THRU ABOUT 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SHRTWV/FORCING/STEEP H85-5 LAPSE RATES UP TO 8-8.5C/KM. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD END FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ARRIVAL OF
DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC. PCPN CHCS WL INCRS LATER IN THE AFTN
WITH APRCH OF STRONGER SHRTWV ROTATING ARND THE SSE FLANK OF CLOSED
LO SLOWLY DRIFTING INTO FAR NW ONTARIO. AS THE H85 WINDS BACK A BIT
WITH THE APRCH OF THIS STRONGER DISTURBANCE...MODELS INDICATE HIER
H85-7 DEWPTS/WL SURGE NEWD INTO MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. IN
CONCERT WITH ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV AND H4-2 DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET MAX MOVING THRU
NW LK SUP...WL CONT TO SHOW INCRSG POPS OVER MAINLY THE SCENTRAL
LATE IN THE DAY. CONSIDERING THE RATHER IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS/MSTR
RETURN THAT IS FCST TO LIFT PWAT CLOSE TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SCENTRAL
BY 00Z /175 PCT OF NORMAL/...PREFER THE HIER POPS A BIT FARTHER TO
THE W/HIER QPF SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM/REGIONAL CNDN MODEL. AS FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT THE HIEST TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WHERE THERE
WL BE MORE SUNSHINE THRU MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL CLDS BEGIN TO INCRS
THIS AFTN. DEEP MIXING TO H75 WL SUPPORT HI TEMPS APRCHG 85 AND
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO MIX TO THE SFC.
TNGT...VIGOROUS DYNAMICS/MSTR RETURN ARE FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE
SE 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD AND JUSTIFY SOME CATEGORICAL
POPS OVER THE SE CWA IN THE EVNG BEFORE DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/MID LVL DRYING RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV PASSAGE.
CONSIDERING THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPR DYNAMICS...THERE IS SOME
CONCERN AS TO WHETHER ANY OF THE TS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE
LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWS UPR MI JUST N OF THE THE SLGT
RISK AREA. THE BEST CHC FOR SOME SVR TS WOULD BE WHEN THE DYNAMICS
ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTN WHEN LLVL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL STEEP/DCAPE
WOULD BE HIER FOLLOWING THE DAYTIME HEATING AND WHEN THE LLVL
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE A UNIDIRECTIONAL SW AND AS HI AS 50 KTS AT
H7. GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. DURING THIS EVNG...HEAVY
RA LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH RATHER HI FRZG LVL NEAR 13K FT/
MARGINAL MID LVL LAPSE RATES DESPITE SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALF.
ARRVIAL OF SOME COOLER AIR/MID LVL DRYING WL ALLOW TEMPS OVER THE W
TO FALL INTO THE 50S TNGT. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR OVER
THE E LATE WITH SOME MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING DEPARTING SHRTWV OVER
THE RA MOISTENED LLVLS WITH SW FLOW OFF LK MI.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER ONTARIO AND THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS ON TUESDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND BE PULLING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND LOW CENTER TO QUICKLY
BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO ON TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW IN ONTARIO WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...LEADING TO
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SHOWER COVERAGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAND
AREAS AROUND NOON ON TUESDAY AND SPREAD IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THINK THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY
ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME HELP FROM
CONVERGENCE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CHANCE OR
LOW END LIKELY VALUES IN THOSE AREAS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...COVERAGE
IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO INDICATIONS OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS A
LITTLE MORE WESTERLY (OR EVEN NORTHWESTERLY) AND BRING IN MORE
STABLE AIR FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. THINK THAT WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA DRY AND WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCES FOR
THE REST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE ONLY AROUND 5-6 C/KM...HELPING TO LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL
AND KEEPING ML CAPES GENERALLY BELOW 200 J/KG. THUS...WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP THUNDER CHANCES CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCES (ALTHOUGH WITH THE
LATEST TRENDS THAT MAY BE GENEROUS). IN ADDITION...IT WILL BE BREEZY
OVER THE KEWEENAW ON TUESDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT (950-925MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS) WILL LEAD TO GUSTS
AROUND 30KTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH THE MARINE
LAYER MAY TRY TO HOLD SOME OF THE WINDS AT BAY NEAR THE SHORELINE.
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...A PERIOD OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW...THINK THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE NW HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. DON/T EXPECT THE AMOUNTS TO BE ANYTHING TOO
IMPRESSIVE...A FEW HUNDREDTHS...BUT WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM GOGEBIC COUNTY THROUGH THE KEWEENAW AND ALSO
HIGHER TERRAIN OF BARAGA AND WESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY. EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO CUT OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AROUND DAYBREAK...AS MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EXPECT THE
AFTERNOON TO BE SUNNY FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL (WHERE THERE
COULD BE SOME LINGERING DIURNAL CU). WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY...THERE MAY BE AN ELEVATED SWIM RISK FOR ALGER COUNTY
BEACHES. BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
50S...THE AMOUNT OF SWIMMERS WILL BE LIMITED IN THE LOW 40 DEGREE
WATER TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND
IN THE 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT A RIDGE EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE COOLER AND GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY LEAD TO SOME
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. EXPECT THE LOWEST LOW TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PWATS AROUND 40 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LIKED THE TREND
SHOWN BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT (TOWARDS THE BETTER PERFORMING MEX
GUIDANCE ON RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS) AND WILL CONTINUE THAT IDEA.
THAT GIVES LOWS FOR SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS OUT WEST IN THE LOWER 40S
AND UPPER 30S. SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY WARMING HIGHS/LOWS FOR THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE 4TH OF JULY STILL LOOKS TO BE A GREAT DAY
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL (70S) UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH A
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. THAT IS
TO BE EXPECTED AND LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WILL SHOW GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES INCREASING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM
THE HIGH KEEPING THE EAST DRY. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TEMPS TO MORE NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES AND ALSO PRODUCE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. SUNDAY VARIES
TOO...SO WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AND LEADS TO POPS
SIMILAR TO CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
AN AREA OF LOWER CLDS OVER NCENTRAL WI WL DRAWN INTO CENTRAL UPR MI
EARLY THIS MRNG AND MAY IMPACT SAW WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES
EARLY THIS MRNG BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING MIXES OUT THE LLVL MSTR AND
ENDS LLWS AT CMX/SAW. OTRW...VFR CONDITIONS WL DOMINATE TODAY. AS A
STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS APRCHS THE UPR LKS
LATER TODAY...MORE MOIST AIR WL BE DRAWN NEWD OVER THE SE HALF OF
UPR MI. THE COMBINATION OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AND THE MSTR RETURN WL BRING SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS
TO SAW ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME THIS EVNG. AFTER DRYING
ALOFT FOLLOWS THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE...SOME FOG/LO CLDS AND IFR
CONDITIONS MAY DVLP AT SAW OVER THE RA MOISTENED LLVLS IN THE
PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. MORE LLVL MSTR WRAPPING INTO THE WRN
U.P. IN A CYC...UPSLOPE WLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO BRING SOME MVFR CIGS
TO IWD AND CMX LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE MERGING WITH A
SECONDARY LOW NEAR JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW 25KTS. WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN END TO THE FOG POTENTIAL AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
PARENT HIGH SHIFTS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
434 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WSW FLOW OVER THE
UPR LKS ARND UNSEASONABLY DEEP CLOSED LO CENTERED NEAR LK WINNIPEG.
A SHRTWV THAT ROTATED ACRS NRN LK SUP EARLY THIS MRNG GENERATED SOME
SHOWERS/TS OVER THE CWA EARLIER...BUT VIGOROUS H85-7 DRY ADVCTN
DOWNSTREAM OF VERY DRY 00Z MPX RAOB /WHERE THE 00Z PWAT WAS NEAR
0.75 INCH OR ABOUT 85 PCT OF NORMAL/ AND DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
AS WELL AS NOCTURNAL COOLING HAVE ENDED THIS PCPN. HOWEVER...STEEP
LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB HAVE ALLOWED SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/TS TO POP UP FM TIME TO TIME OVER NCENTRAL WI AND CENTRAL
UPR MI DESPITE THE LARGER SCALE DRYING TRENDS/NOCTURNAL COOLING.
ANOTHER LARGER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TS IS PRESENT OVER SE WI...WHERE
THE SHRTWV IN SCENTRAL MN IS INTERACTING WITH AREA OF HIER H85-7
DEWPTS ON SE FLANK OF DRY WEDGE PUSHING INTO UPR MI. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...THERE ARE SEVERAL SHRTWVS MOVING EWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS
IN THE WLY FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF CLOSED LO.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME ARE SHOWER/TS CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY LATE TODAY/TNGT WHEN A STRONGER SHRTWV ROTATING ARND THE
CLOSED LO IS FCST TO MOVE THRU THE UPR MIDWEST.
EARLY THIS MRNG/TODAY...DRY AIR SWEEPING ENEWD WITH H85-5 MEAN LYR
RH DOWN TO 30-40 PCT SHOULD ENSURE DRY WX FOR MOST OF THE CWA THIS
MRNG EVEN THOUGH SHRTWV NOW IN MN AND ASSOCIATED DPVA/SOME DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW OVER SCENTRAL MN WL SWING
ACRS THE AREA. HOWEVER...DID ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING ISOLD
SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA THRU ABOUT 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SHRTWV/FORCING/STEEP H85-5 LAPSE RATES UP TO 8-8.5C/KM. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD END FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ARRIVAL OF
DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC. PCPN CHCS WL INCRS LATER IN THE AFTN
WITH APRCH OF STRONGER SHRTWV ROTATING ARND THE SSE FLANK OF CLOSED
LO SLOWLY DRIFTING INTO FAR NW ONTARIO. AS THE H85 WINDS BACK A BIT
WITH THE APRCH OF THIS STRONGER DISTURBANCE...MODELS INDICATE HIER
H85-7 DEWPTS/WL SURGE NEWD INTO MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. IN
CONCERT WITH ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV AND H4-2 DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET MAX MOVING THRU
NW LK SUP...WL CONT TO SHOW INCRSG POPS OVER MAINLY THE SCENTRAL
LATE IN THE DAY. CONSIDERING THE RATHER IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS/MSTR
RETURN THAT IS FCST TO LIFT PWAT CLOSE TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SCENTRAL
BY 00Z /175 PCT OF NORMAL/...PREFER THE HIER POPS A BIT FARTHER TO
THE W/HIER QPF SHOWN BY THE 00Z NAM/REGIONAL CNDN MODEL. AS FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT THE HIEST TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WHERE THERE
WL BE MORE SUNSHINE THRU MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL CLDS BEGIN TO INCRS
THIS AFTN. DEEP MIXING TO H75 WL SUPPORT HI TEMPS APRCHG 85 AND
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO MIX TO THE SFC.
TNGT...VIGOROUS DYNAMICS/MSTR RETURN ARE FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE
SE 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD AND JUSTIFY SOME CATEGORICAL
POPS OVER THE SE CWA IN THE EVNG BEFORE DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/MID LVL DRYING RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV PASSAGE.
CONSIDERING THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPR DYNAMICS...THERE IS SOME
CONCERN AS TO WHETHER ANY OF THE TS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE
LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWS UPR MI JUST N OF THE THE SLGT
RISK AREA. THE BEST CHC FOR SOME SVR TS WOULD BE WHEN THE DYNAMICS
ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTN WHEN LLVL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL STEEP/DCAPE
WOULD BE HIER FOLLOWING THE DAYTIME HEATING AND WHEN THE LLVL
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE A UNIDIRECTIONAL SW AND AS HI AS 50 KTS AT
H7. GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. DURING THIS EVNG...HEAVY
RA LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH RATHER HI FRZG LVL NEAR 13K FT/
MARGINAL MID LVL LAPSE RATES DESPITE SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALF.
ARRVIAL OF SOME COOLER AIR/MID LVL DRYING WL ALLOW TEMPS OVER THE W
TO FALL INTO THE 50S TNGT. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR OVER
THE E LATE WITH SOME MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING DEPARTING SHRTWV OVER
THE RA MOISTENED LLVLS WITH SW FLOW OFF LK MI.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER ONTARIO AND THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS ON TUESDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND BE PULLING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND LOW CENTER TO QUICKLY
BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO ON TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW IN ONTARIO WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...LEADING TO
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SHOWER COVERAGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAND
AREAS AROUND NOON ON TUESDAY AND SPREAD IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THINK THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY
ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME HELP FROM
CONVERGENCE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CHANCE OR
LOW END LIKELY VALUES IN THOSE AREAS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...COVERAGE
IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO INDICATIONS OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS A
LITTLE MORE WESTERLY (OR EVEN NORTHWESTERLY) AND BRING IN MORE
STABLE AIR FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. THINK THAT WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA DRY AND WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCES FOR
THE REST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE ONLY AROUND 5-6 C/KM...HELPING TO LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL
AND KEEPING ML CAPES GENERALLY BELOW 200 J/KG. THUS...WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP THUNDER CHANCES CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCES (ALTHOUGH WITH THE
LATEST TRENDS THAT MAY BE GENEROUS). IN ADDITION...IT WILL BE BREEZY
OVER THE KEWEENAW ON TUESDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT (950-925MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS) WILL LEAD TO GUSTS
AROUND 30KTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH THE MARINE
LAYER MAY TRY TO HOLD SOME OF THE WINDS AT BAY NEAR THE SHORELINE.
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...A PERIOD OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW...THINK THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE NW HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. DON/T EXPECT THE AMOUNTS TO BE ANYTHING TOO
IMPRESSIVE...A FEW HUNDREDTHS...BUT WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM GOGEBIC COUNTY THROUGH THE KEWEENAW AND ALSO
HIGHER TERRAIN OF BARAGA AND WESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY. EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO CUT OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AROUND DAYBREAK...AS MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EXPECT THE
AFTERNOON TO BE SUNNY FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL (WHERE THERE
COULD BE SOME LINGERING DIURNAL CU). WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY...THERE MAY BE AN ELEVATED SWIM RISK FOR ALGER COUNTY
BEACHES. BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
50S...THE AMOUNT OF SWIMMERS WILL BE LIMITED IN THE LOW 40 DEGREE
WATER TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND
IN THE 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT A RIDGE EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE COOLER AND GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY LEAD TO SOME
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. EXPECT THE LOWEST LOW TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PWATS AROUND 40 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LIKED THE TREND
SHOWN BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT (TOWARDS THE BETTER PERFORMING MEX
GUIDANCE ON RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS) AND WILL CONTINUE THAT IDEA.
THAT GIVES LOWS FOR SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS OUT WEST IN THE LOWER 40S
AND UPPER 30S. SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY WARMING HIGHS/LOWS FOR THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE 4TH OF JULY STILL LOOKS TO BE A GREAT DAY
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL (70S) UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH A
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. THAT IS
TO BE EXPECTED AND LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WILL SHOW GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES INCREASING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM
THE HIGH KEEPING THE EAST DRY. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TEMPS TO MORE NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES AND ALSO PRODUCE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. SUNDAY VARIES
TOO...SO WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AND LEADS TO POPS
SIMILAR TO CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS AND VIS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE POSSIBLE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL UPR MI
LATE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WHETHER IT WILL AFFECT KSAW.
INCLUDED LLWS AT KCMX OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE SOMEWHAT NEAR THE
SFC AND LOW-LVL JET MAX MOVES OVERHEAD. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER S
WINDS OF 20-30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...STARTING JUST AFTER 12Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. WILL INCLUDE SHRA IN KSAW TAF AFT
00Z TUE WITH VCTS FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVING UP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE MERGING WITH A
SECONDARY LOW NEAR JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW 25KTS. WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN END TO THE FOG POTENTIAL AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
PARENT HIGH SHIFTS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
320 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
Some places reaching heat indices of 100-105 this afternoon due to
warm temperatures around 90 degrees and very high surface dew points
in the middle to upper 70s. The heat advisory will continue in
effect for the St Louis metro area into the early evening hours.
With a capped atmosphere and little if any forcing, not getting the
typical diurnal isolated to scattered showers/storms this afternoon
across our forecast area. Convection is expected to continue to
develop across IA and northwest MO and eventually shift
southeastward into northeast MO and west central IL early this
evening as a shortwave and cold front along with outflow boundaries
ahead of the front approach and help to break the cap and provide a
surface focus for convection. Due to the extreme instability along
with sufficient low-mid level wind shear, damaging winds along with
large hail and isolated tornadoes are possible with these storms
this evening across northeast MO and west central IL. Went with a
compromise between the faster NCEP 4 km WRF and the slower HRRR
model for the precipitation forecast. A broken line of convection
is expected to drop southeastward through northeast MO and west
central IL early this evening. This line of convection should
gradually weaken later this evening and into the overnight hours as
it moves into central MO and southwest IL, although maybe not as
fast as the HRRR model depicts. Slightly cooler low temperatures
are expected tonight compared to last night across northeast MO and
west central IL behind the southeastward moving cold front.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
(Tuesday)
Cooler day is in store for Tuesday as initial cold front should clear the
southern extent of the CWA by Tuesday morning. Drier air with dewpoints
filtering down into the 60s is also expected. Chances of showers and storms
are forecast to be confined to southeastern Missouri where a shortwave
will round the base of an amplifying longwave trough and interact with sagging
frontal boundary/baroclinic zone. Rest of forecast area is expected to remain
dry with highs about 3-7F cooler than today but it will feel quite a bit
better than today due to dewpoints also lowering.
Secondary cold front should slip by the area overnight Tuesday night and
is expected to pass through dry. Main impact this frontal boundary will
bring is that it will usher in the start of some unseasonably cool and dry
weather.
(Wednesday - Friday)
The Wednesday through Friday time period will be characterized by much
cooler than normal temperatures accompanied by unseasonably low dewpoints.
Look for temperatures to be some 10 to near 15 degrees below normal day
and night. This results in highs in the 70s with lows in the 50s...not too
unlike what was observed early in July of last year. Lows on Thursday
morning...and to a lesser degree Friday morning...may even approach record
minimums for the date. All in all...a beautiful and pleasant 4th of July
looks to be in store for the bi-state region.
(Saturday - Monday)
Surface ridge and associated anticyclone will slowly move off to the east
with upper-level heights also on the rise. This will result in a
moderation in temperatures as well as a climb in dewpoints/humidity levels.
The process will be slow and gradual however leading to comfortable levels
of temps/humidities thanks to persistent dry/cool low-level flow around
Great Lakes. More typical summertime temperatures and dewpoints look to
hold off until Monday.
Next chance of precipitation in the form of showers and thunderstorms will
be Saturday night through Sunday as a shortwave travels around the periphery
of upper-level high across the desert southwest.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1108 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
Atmosphere should be too capped for convection this afternoon,
but there will still be scattered diurnal cumulus clouds.
Thunderstorms, possibly severe should impact UIN early this evening
as an upper level disturbance and cold front approaches. This
convection should gradually weaken as it moves southeastward into
COU and the St Louis metro area late this evening and overnight.
The cold front will move through UIN around 06z Tuesday and
through STL around 12z Tuesday as it weakens. The s-swly surface
wind will veer around to a w-nwly direction after fropa.
Specifics for KSTL: Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds this
afternoon. Weakening convection should drop southeastward into STL
late this evening and overnight as a weakening cold front
approaches. S-swly surface wind will become gusty this afternoon.
The surface wind will veer around to a w-nwly direction Tuesday
morning after fropa.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 73 87 66 78 / 40 10 10 10
Quincy 67 83 60 71 / 60 10 10 10
Columbia 71 83 60 75 / 40 10 5 5
Jefferson City 72 84 62 76 / 50 20 10 5
Salem 73 86 65 79 / 30 20 20 10
Farmington 72 86 64 80 / 30 30 20 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR St. Charles MO-St.
Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR Madison IL-St.
Clair IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1141 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
00Z/7pm CDT upper air observation at KSGF shows some warming in
the 800-700mb with ongoing warm air advection in that layer.
Progged soundings for the same time (00z), while overdoing the
cap/warming, have latched onto the idea of fairly poor lapse rates
in that layer. In the near term, looking for continued quiet
weather.
Later tonight....New 00z NAM (and the 18z) is just doing a terrible job
in the near term with convection. HRRR and ARW (among some others)
seem to have a good general handle with ongoing convection over NE
Kansas/NW Missouri. Could see convection develop southeast with
convective outflow interacting with the nocturnal low level jet
overnight. Best chances for precip would be over the northern
cwfa, but overall have cut back on pops and severe weather chances
tonight (still limited). Will continue to watch trends unfold and
make adjustments as needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
The active weather pattern will continue through Monday...and
beyond. As we go through early this evening, we are expecting
pop-up type convection over the eastern Ozarks to slowly wane.
Meanwhile, confidence is beginning to increase that we may have to
deal with another line of storms from later this evening into the
overnight period. We will be closely watching for convective
initiation across northeastern Kansas/northern Missouri this
afternoon. Cold pools from what will initially be cellular
convection should quickly conglomerate given very high low level
theta-e differentials. Once conglomeration occurs and a low level
jet strengthens this evening, any developing MCS should take a
hard turn to the south-southeast and become forward-propagating
in nature. It will certainly have damaging wind potential given
extreme instability and high theta-e differentials (especially
north of I-44).
Timing remains a question as it will be highly dependent on
if/when initiation occurs across the I-70 corridor. It could
come into west-central Missouri as early as 7 to 8 PM...but may
also hold off until late evening. Regardless, we will be ramping
up PoPs tonight and hitting the wind potential in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook products. We will also have to watch for
regenerative growth later tonight if the convective outflow stalls
and interacts with the low level jet.
It should be noted that there are also multiple convection-
allowing models that do not generate an MCS at all to our north.
If the MCS does not pan out, we would be left with isolated to
widely scattered convective potential as a low level jet veers
over the region later tonight. The bottom line here...we will be
keeping our eyes peeled on the I-70 corridor into this
evening...making forecast adjustments if necessary.
Any leftover activity should quickly diminish Monday morning with
the majority of the day looking dry, hot, and humid. Highs will
have no problem warming into the lower 90s with heat indices in
the 98 to 104 degree range. It will also be a windy day with brisk
and gusty south to southwest surface winds. By late in the
afternoon, we are expecting another MCS to develop up towards I-70
along an advancing cold front. It is possible that this activity
approaches the Truman and Lake of the Ozarks region by late
afternoon. Once again, this activity will have wind damage
potential.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
That cold front will then seep south into the area Monday night
and Tuesday continuing the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
That front will then get nudge into northern Arkansas from Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. More showers and thunderstorms are
probable, especially across extreme southeastern Kansas and
southern Missouri during this time period. A threat for strong to
severe storms will remain...with perhaps an increasing threat for
flooding due to a cumulative effect from multiple rounds of
thunderstorms. We considered a Flash Flood Watch, but would like
to get a better feel for the track of MCSs before pulling the
trigger.
The threat for storms should finally push south of the Missouri
Ozarks by Wednesday night with dry and cooler weather currently
anticipated from Thursday through Saturday. High temperatures will
be pleasant with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in
the lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Some low stratus is occurring east
and northeast of the taf sites along and south of I-44 about as
far west as Lebanon, Ava, and West Plains. It doesn`t look like
given the progged winds that this stratus will move/advect into
the taf sites, but will watch trends. High cirrus deck from storms
well north of the area will continue to to shift into the area.
Progged soundings dry out quite a bit for much of the day Monday
along with some increased capping, so will likely have vfr
conditions depicted at all taf sites. A cold front will reach an
area just north of KSGF and KJLN by the end of the taf period
with a somewhat increased chance for showers/thunderstorms, but
don`t think expected rain coverage warrants a mention in the tafs
at this point.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DSA
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1140 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 948 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2014
Scattered thunderstorms over north central and northwest Missouri
are occurring in an axis of 925-850mb moisture convergence that
shows up well in latest run of the RAP. This forcing will shift
eastward the next few hours as the low level winds veer. Current
motion of the supercell over north central Missouri has it moving
into the the northwestern CWA around midnight. HRRR composite
reflectivity still shows that current activity will move east into
central and northeast Missouri and west central Illinois through
09Z before diminishing. Have maintained likely PoPs during the late
evening and overnight hours in these areas with chance PoPs
elsewhere. Rest of forecast still looks on track.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2014
An area of convection was moving through southeastern MO, clipping
the extreme southern portion of the forecast area this afternoon,
with more scattered activity mainly between COU and STL. This
convection was mainly due to diurnal heating and destabilization and
should dissipate by sunset. More organized convection is expected
to develop this evening and move through the northern and western
portion of our forecast area late this evening and overnight.
Convection is expected to develop across southeastern Nebraska,
northeast Kansas and southwest Iowa late this afternoon and early
this evening ahead of a vort max or MCV moving eastward into
northeast KS, and in an area of low level warm air advection on the
nose of a s-swly low level jet. Some of this convection should move
southeastward into central MO late this evening and into the
overnight hours with additional convection developing or moving into
northeast MO and west central IL during this time period as well.
The atmosphere will be very unstable and there will be adequate
low-mid level wind shear that some of the storms across northeast MO
could be severe with damaging winds being the most likely hazard.
Most of the convection should remain north and west of STL. Low
temperatures tonight should be a little warmer than the previous
night due to slightly stronger surface winds and slightly higher
surface dew points.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2014
It appears that going forecasts have a fairly good handle on
convective/precip trends heading into the new work week, which
remains the primary short-term forecast concern.
Although the exact evolution of tonight`s activity is still a bit
uncertain, based on model consensus and climatology any convection
that is generated during the overnight hours should be exiting
southeast sections of the CWA early Monday morning. Once this
occurs, there should be a fairly prolonged period of dry weather as
very warm mid-level temps cap any additional development until the
approach of the cold front towards northwest sections of our CWA
late in the day. It certainly appears that the last day of June is
going to be a steamy one over most of the FA, and even taking into
account mixing it appears that dewpoints will hold in the low-mid
70s over most of the region. Don`t believe that the low clouds of
today will be hanging around tomorrow, especially in the afternoon,
so with at least partial sunshine and 850mb temps of 20-22C progged
over the region highs should be topping out in the low-mid 90s.
This combo of temperatures and dewpoints will push the afternoon
heat index to around 105 degrees in the STL metro, so will be going
out with a heat advisory for this area from 17z Monday-01z Tuesday
(Monday afternoon and early evening).
Obviously this AMS will be extremely unstable, and as the
aforementioned cold front and associated shortwave interact with it
during the afternoon a large area of strong to severe convection
will develop from IA and possibly extending into northwest and/or
north central MO. Some of these storms may threaten northwest
sections of the FA by late in the afternoon, but the primary threat
in our CWA will likely be Monday evening. There will certainly be
some severe weather potential in northern sections of our CWA with
this activity due to the extreme instability (even some of the more
conservative output suggests MUCAPES of 3000-4000 j/kg) and 30-50kts
of bulk shear> However, all of the operational models suggest
intensity and coverage of convection should wane as cold front
pushes into southern sections of the CWA later in the night, and
this appears reasonable with primary shortwave energy tracking
almost due east along with weakening frontal convergence and
instability. Again, this trend is already in going forecast and
looks good.
Synoptic scale models are still suggesting several additional
shortwaves will migrate through the region Tuesday-Tuesday night as
upper trof deepens from the Great Lakes into the Mississippi
Valley. These dynamics should interact with moisture near and
north of slowing cold front to maintain some shower and thunderstorm
threat. Best chances should be over the southern half of the CWA
on Tuesday night, but given the baroclinicity and potential
iscentropic lift have continued some very low slight chance PoPs as
far north as UIN. The threat of precip with the last shortwave
should wind down on Wednesday.
Latest medium range guidance still suggests some atypically cool and
low humidity air will blanket the area heading into the 4th of July
holiday. However, temperatures and humidity levels should begin to
rebound to more normal summertime levels during the weekend as trof
works east and ridge over the Rockies rebounds into the central
CONUS. A threat of showers and thunderstorms will return during
the latter half of the weekend as a shortwave on east side of
ridge clips the area.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2014
Ongoing TSRA over n cntl MO will continue to move newd. Can not
rule out a storm impacting UIN in an hour or two, but chances are
diminishing. Otherwise, MVFR cigs have already moved back into
SUS/CPS and shud remain in place thru the night. Cigs are expected
to begin to lift after sunrise. COU/UIN shud see MVFR cigs develop
shortly after sunrise. Cigs will gradually lift and sct by mid day
with strong sly to sswly winds gusting to 25 kits...perhaps
greater late in the afternoon. Latest guidance suggests a line of
TSRA dropping swd impacting UIN and COU late in the TAF period.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs have moved back into the region and
shud remain thru the night and begin to lift late in the morning.
Sswly winds shud increase during the late morning thru the
afternoon with gusts to around 25 kts, poss higher. These gusts
shud diminish during the evening hours.
Tilly
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR St. Charles MO-
St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR Madison IL-St.
Clair IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1213 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY. COOL WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ECHOES MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO. LOW LEVEL JET TO KICK UP AGAIN
TONIGHT AND EXPAND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN KANSAS NORTH INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. HAVE BEEN A BIT
LIBERAL WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CONVECTION CHANCES TO HEADLINE
THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
OF POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS UNDERGONE STRONG DESTABILIZATION...WITH THE OPERATIONAL RAP AND
LATEST LAPS DATA GENERATING UPWARDS OF 3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH OPTIMAL DEEP SHEAR
IN PLACE...STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS...ARE ANTICIPATED TO FORM.
A SIGNIFICANT -10 TO -30C CONTRIBUTION TO THE CAPE /CLOSING ON A
1000 J/KG/ WOULD SUPPORT SOME LARGE HAIL. THE LATEST NEAR TERM
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS GENERATES THE PROJECTED ACTIVITY WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA...BUT RECENT SATELLITE OBS INDICATE OTHERWISE
WITH THE FORMATION OF A AGITATED CU FIELD ACROSS CUSTER COUNTY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS. WEST OF THIS
AREA...INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE CAPE DECREASES RAPIDLY...ONLY
ISOLATED GENERAL STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...INCREASINGLY RICH THETA-E BUILDS BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF A LLJ. THE THREAT OF STORMS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S ACROSS THE EAST.
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR MONDAY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY. HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD PREVAIL. LINGERING POST FRONTAL STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A REINFORCING CANADIAN COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PRECEDING PACIFIC COLD FRONT SUPPORTS
LOWS IN THE 50S TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE ABOUT 5F
COLDER FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR COOLER LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THE MODELS SHOW 850MB-700MB CLOUDS WRAPPING
SOUTH AROUND A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS ONTARIO.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE IN PLACE TUESDAY WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT. H700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 6C TO 10C AND HIGHS RISE TO ONLY
70 NORTH. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ALSO.
THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES OFF EAST WEDNESDAY FOR HIGHS 75 TO 80 WITH
NEARLY FULL SUN AND LIGHT WINDS...A COMPLETE REVERSE OF TUESDAYS
WIND...CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT PRODUCING 20 TO 25 MPH SLY RETURN FLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE WARMING TREND IS SLOWER GIVEN THE STRONGER PUSH OF
CANADIAN AIR TUESDAY FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THE
ECM...GFS AND GEM MODELS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IF WINDS ALOFT
CAN REMAIN STRONG AS SHOWN THE GEM AND GFS SOLNS THEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THURSDAY
AND BEYOND. THE ECM BUILDS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRONGLY
PRODUCING WEAK WINDS ALOFT. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS AND
INCLUDES ISOLATED POPS WHICH FITS THE CLASSIC JULY NORTHWEST FLOW
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
SOME SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL INCREASE AS
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET INCREASES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH THE NORTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM AND HAVE JUST INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP -TSRA FOR THE KLBF TAF
SITE. THROUGH THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EAST OF A LINE FROM KLBF TO KVTN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF
SITES BUT IN AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 MPH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1211 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
INCREASED POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRI CITIES AREA. FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WELL PLACED LOW LEVEL JET WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF THIS JET CENTERED OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR IS THE FURTHEREST SOUTH WITH THE
CONVECTION FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF NEBRASKA COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE NAM...RAP...AND SREF FOCUS THE CONVECTION A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH CENTERING THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE TRI CITIES
BETWEEN 3 AM AND 7 AM. WILL FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO FORM ANYTIME AFTER 10 PM ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA NEAR
THE KANSAS STATE LINE AND THEN TRACK EAST POSSIBLY BUILDING SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH OVER 3000 J/KG OF CAPE FROM AN ELEVATED PARCEL.
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR TO
NEAR 50 KTS WILL CERTAINLY SET THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LATE NIGHT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME GOLF BALL SIZED OR EVEN LARGER HAIL REPORTS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
DESPITE THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...IT
APPEARS THAT THE LACK OF GOOD FORCING HAS BEEN WINNING OUT THIS
EVENING AND THUS WE HAVE SEEN NO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
AREA. THE ONLY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHERE THE FORCING IS BETTER. WE ARE COLLABORATING WITH THE SPC ON
TRIMMING SOME OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES FROM OUR TORNADO WATCH. IT
SEEMS LIKELY AT THIS POINT IN TIME THAT MOST OF OUR TORNADO WATCH
WILL BE CANCELED EARLY UNLESS WE START TO SEE SOMETHING DEVELOP
SOON.
WE WILL SEE BETTER FORCING BY LATE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL NOSE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA IN
NEAR TEXT BOOK FASHION FOR AN INCREASING THREAT OF ELEVATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY AFTER 10 PM. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ENDS UP BEING NEEDED
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT OR INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION HAVE MAINLY CLEARED OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW CUMULUS HAVE
STARTED TO DEVELOP BUT NONE OF THEM HAVE MUCH VERTICAL EXTENT
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
THERE IS OVER 4000 J/KG MU CAPE THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE SUNSHINE
THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY...MOVING OUT OF THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT THERE COULD BE HAIL
AND WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.
LATER TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH THE
SECOND ROUND OF STORMS. MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO KEEP IT FURTHER TO
THE NORTH...BUT THE 4KM WRF...HRRR AND EVEN THE NAM KEEP IT A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT IN MIND HAVE KEPT SOME LOWER POPS IN THE
SOUTH WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH. THIS COULD BRING SOME WIND AND
HEAVIER RAINS WHICH WOULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LAST INTO MONDAY MORNING AGAIN BEFORE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER
DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR PARTS OF
THE CWA FOR THE BEGINNING AND LATTER PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF AMPLIFYING...AS A RIDGE
DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH/APPROACHING THE NORTH/CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP A TROUGH IN THE EAST.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS...WITH THE NOSE APPROACHING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA. A STRONG STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT STORM PARAMETERS DO
NOT POINT TOWARD AN OVERWHELMING MOVE TOWARD MENTIONING SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
THE TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH ON TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
COULD HELP SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY DURING
THE DAY ACROSS MAINLY OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES...BUT AFTER THIS...A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES AND WE SHOULD COOL OFF INTO THE 70S...STILL JUST
EAST OF THE DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING RIDGE...WITH ITS AXIS OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
THE RIDGE EXPANDS OVER OUR AREA AND WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OF THE
SPIGOT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE
ONCE AGAIN...TOWARD MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WE COULD GET SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING...BUT STRONGER STORMS WILL PROBABLY
BE FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE NOSE OF THE JET WILL MORE LIKELY BE.
STORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FEW WEAKNESSES IN THE
RIDGE ALLOW FOR SOME PERTURBATIONS TO POSSIBLY KICK UP A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB APPROACHING 14 C INDICATE
THAT A HEALTHY CAP WILL BE IN PLACE AND COULD TAKE SOME WORK GETTING
THAT BROKEN. TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO SUMMER-TIME STANDARDS BY THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLOUDS NEAR 4000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 19-21KTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
SUCH ACTIVITY AT GRI IS TOO LOW FOR INSERTION INTO THE TAF AT THIS
TIME. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1144 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
WE ARE LIKELY SEEING THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM CURRENTLY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WX ONGOING ACROSS THE FA. THE 04Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM AROUND
KFSD TO KTIF...AND KLNX RADAR INDICATES THIS HAS SHOWN SOME
MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LATE EVENING
WATER VAPOR INDICATES THAT A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MT. FINALLY THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET IS INCREASING ACROSS
WESTERN KS INTO SOUTHWEST NEB. THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE
SUPPORT AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY INITIATE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NEB SHORTLY. SHORT-RANGE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THESE MOVING EAST
OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY INTO OUR AREA AFTER 4 AM. GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET...COUPLED WITH MUCAPE
OF 3000-4000 J/KG SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH NOT A CLIMO FAVORED TIME OF DAY WE COULD SEE A
PRETTY GOOD WIND EVENT ALONG WITH SOME SEVERE HAIL EVOLVE TOWARD
12Z ALONG AND E OF THE MO RIVER.
GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE THIS HANDLED WELL AND FORECAST
PRODUCTS WERE UPDATED EARLIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN.
AFTER MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ROLLED THROUGH PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA...ATMOSPHERE HAD STABILIZED FOR A TIME INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS EVAPORATED...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 80S MANY SPOTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND SOME COOLING ALOFT HAS
PRODUCED SURFACE-BASED CAPES EXCEEDING 3500 J/KG. 18Z SOUNDING AT
KOAX SHOWED 3692 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE WITH ALMOST NO
INHIBITION. LAYER SHEAR...0-6KM...WAS 34KT...AND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. HOWEVER OUR 18Z SOUNDING SHOWS
LIFTING A MIXED-LAYER PARCEL YIELDS ONLY 1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND
INHIBITION RUNNING OVER 100. THUS MAY HAVE TO WAIT A WHILE BEFORE
CINH GOES AWAY AND HIGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED. A FEW AREAS OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION WERE NOTED AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT NONE ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF GROWING AT THE MOMENT. MOST LIKELY AREA OF
INITIATION FOR MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE
SETTING UP FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE COLUMBUS...FREMONT AND
MISSOURI VALLEY AREAS. ENHANCED CUMULUS FIELD WAS STARTING TO EXPAND
HERE...WITH WEAK AREA OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS PER RAP 19Z
INITIALIZATION. OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM MORNING
STORMS COULD ALSO FOCUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE STORMS DO FIRE
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT RAPID DEVELOPMENT TOWARD STRONG/SEVERE
LEVELS IN HIGH INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. ORIENTATION OF LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS SUGGEST SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SUGGEST MCS DEVELOPMENT
WITH PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT A HAIL AND
TORNADO THREAT WITH EARLY CONVECTION...THEN EVOLVING INTO A
HAIL...WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING.
EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA BY LATE
EVENING. THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ROLLING OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE LIFT OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN IOWA MONDAY MORNING.
LINGERING HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES POINT TO A
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY STORMS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SLOW-
MOVING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIMP SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH WAVES RIPPLING
ALONG FRONT POINT TO REPEATED DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
UNTIL FRONT CLEARS OUR SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY.
AFTER FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE OUR DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THEN A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN ENHANCED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS OMAHA. THESE
SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND END AT SUNSET. TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER
AS 850 TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS...THEN EVEN COOLER
WEDNESDAY WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MANY HIGHS BOTH DAYS
SHOULD HOLD IN THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY INTO THURSDAY...TAKING STORM TRACK TO OUR
NORTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ONLY SLOWLY RECOVERING 850
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW 80 THEN. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
ROLL INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME STORMS FIRE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL FIREWORKS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GFS SHOWS SYSTEM EXITING TO THE SOUTH
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE MAY BE A BIT FAST. THUS WILL CONTINUE
SMALL RAIN CHANCES INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN
TSRA...WHICH ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL 3 SITES. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
TSRA APPEARS TO BE AFTER 11Z AND THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AT ALL 3 SITES
WHEN MVFR OR EVEN SHORT TERM IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE A CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY SWITCHING THE WINDS TO NORTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOUSTEAD
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
559 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TO NMRS TSRA/SHRA EXPECTED E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TONIGHT WITH SPOTTIER ACTIVITY FARTHER W IN THE EVENING. CELLS
SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AT SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE...AND MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF THE CENTRAL
MT CHAIN BY LATE EVENING. MODELS DEPICT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGERING INTO WED MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS. EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALSO CAUSE PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED WED AFTN/NIGHT...EXCEPT
FOR ISOLD ACTIVITY W OF THE CONTDVD.
44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...244 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE WORKING INTO THE AREA
TODAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH THICKER CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT
DOWN TREND IN STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE WORKS NORTH INTO THE STATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
19Z LAPS DATA AND LATEST RADAR PICTURE SYNCING UP WELL AS THE BULK
OF THE SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONT DVD AND
THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE NORTHERN MTS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY IS POISED OVER THE PLAINS HOWEVER CLOUDS AND RESULTING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ARE SLOWING DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST HRRR AND
RUC AGREE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE DIVIDE WILL SPREAD EAST TOWARD THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SHARP
DRYLINE OVER WESTERN NM WILL FAVOR DRIER PRECIP ACTIVITY WEST OF
THE DIVIDE WITH WET/DRY ACTIVITY BTWN THE DIVIDE AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. THE SPC STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE PRODUCT INDICATES A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SOCORRO COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING THAT
DEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE HRRR INDICATES THIS CLUSTER COMING OUT OF SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO THEN RIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BLENDED
THE 2 SOLUTIONS SO MUCH OF THE EAST IS AT HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY
FOR TONIGHT.
GAP WINDS WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
FORCE THE MOISTURE SURGE MUCH FARTHER WEST INTO EASTERN ARIZONA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE THETA-E AXIS WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH STEERING FLOW FORCING ACTIVITY EAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE ABQ/SAF METRO IN THE EVENING. PWAT VALUES
FROM 1 TO 1.5 FROM WEST TO EAST AND LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SO MAINTAINED THAT WORDING THRU WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AROUND CENTRAL NM INCLUDING ABQ AND SAF IN QUITE SOME TIME.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BECOME ORIENTED
MORE WEST-EAST OVER NORTHERN NM. NORTH-SOUTH STEERING FLOW WILL
FAVOR ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN TO SLIDE INTO THE
ABQ/SAF METRO AREA. CURRENT POP GRIDS TREND CHANCES DOWN TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY HOWEVER IT WILL DEPEND
ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE FALLS THROUGH THURSDAY AND WORKS WITH STRONG
RECYCLING PROCESSES. THE GFS INDICATES A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
MOIST INSTABILITY AGAIN OVER CENTRAL NM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS
SO AGAIN STEERING FLOW WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THE ABQ/SAF AREAS.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RAMPING UP THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR/EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO ESPECIALLY FROM THE
UPPER GILA REGION SOUTH WHERE THE AIR MASS QUICKLY DESTABILIZED
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER EASTERLY PUSH. STILL CONCERN
FOR DRIER STORMS HERE WITH LIGHTNING AND MICROBURST POTENTIAL
BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THOUGH
IMPROVING MOISTURE PROFILES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.
AIR MASS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE IMPACTS
OF LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT HAVE LINGERED LONGER. STILL WATCHING FOR A
REINFORCING SURGE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE IS FORCED WESTWARD. THUS...LOOK FOR REJUVENATED EASTERLY
GAP WINDS LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADIENTS RELAX WED AM. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...DRIER DEWPOINTS LOOK TO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND WEST WITH A TREND TOWARD MORE DRY OR MIXED WET AND DRY
STORMS FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BENEATH WEAK STEERING FLOW.
RH RECOVERIES MUCH MUCH IMPROVED WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT READINGS
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERMS BUT WILL START A DOWNWARD TREND BY
TUESDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND UPWARD WEDNESDAY AS WETTING PRECIP
SHIFTS WESTWARD. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH
WETTER STORMS IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL...AND DRIER OR MIX OF WET AND
DRY ACROSS THE FAR WEST PRIMARILY FROM THE DIVIDE WESTWARD. EXPECT FAIR TO
POOR VENTILATION WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE EAST AND SPOTTY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE WEST.
THURSDAY WILL START TO SEE DIMINISHING PRECIP IN THE EAST BUT
INCREASING TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND WEST. FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION
FROM THE WEST TO THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY BUT GOOD TO EXCELLENT
IN THE EAST. BY FRIDAY JULY 4TH...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL AREAS...WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
NEAR NORMAL AREA WIDE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES UNTIL TUESDAY. 32
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
431 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. THE WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE
TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF AT NIGHT. AN INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ON TUESDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST...WITH
LINGERING STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY EAST OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER THEN RETURNS BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT MONDAY...LATE-AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER ACROSS ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW
YORK. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORMING IN AN ENVIRONMENT
THAT`S SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE PER RAP STABILITY ANALYSES (LI`S OF -2 TO
-3 AND SFC- BASED CAPES OF 500 TO 900 J/KG). APPEARS THAT
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE ZONE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO GET
THESE TO GO. THESE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN
THROUGH SUNSET AS THEY MOVE OFF THAT ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ACROSS
ONTARIO...THOUGH DEVELOPING IN A REGIME OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
SWLYS/MEAN SW STORM MOTION VECTORS. THUS...FEEL THIS ACTIVITY
WOULD LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS HAVING CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. IT MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT DUE TO A LITTLE LESS CLOUDS AND HIGHS BEING A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH. I`VE OFFERED LOWS IN THE
60S...WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS UNDER A LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE COUPLE DAYS IN STORE WITH SEVERAL
ISSUES TO ADDRESS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS INCLUDES
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLE LINGERING THREAT FOR STRONG
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
ON TUESDAY: LOOKING AT A HAZY HOT AND HUMID DAY...AND FOR MANY IT
WILL BE THE FIRST DAY THIS SUMMER WHERE THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE. WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKES PLACE AT LOW-LEVELS BRINGING IN 925 MB TEMPS OF +23 TO +25C.
THAT WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER
90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS
ALREADY IN PLACE...APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. THIS ISN`T QUITE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SO I HAVEN`T
ISSUED ANY HEAT HEADLINES...BUT THE APPARENT TEMPS ARE HIGH ENOUGH
TO MAKE IT FEEL A BIT OPPRESSIVE. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ALSO BE
QUITE WARM AS WELL WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FORECAST. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY MENTION HEAT CONCERNS IN THE HWO.
TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPPED TO CONVECTION.
THE INCREASING THERMAL ADVECTION BRINGS IN 700 MB TEMPS OF NEAR
+10C AND GUIDANCE SHOW NO EVIDENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OR FRONTAL
FORCING TO BREAK THIS CAP. THAT LOOKS TO CHANGE BY MID AFTERNOON AS
LEADING EDGE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW TIED TO THE SLOW-MOVING
UPPER MIDWEST LOW INTRUDES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALREADY HAVE DEVELOPED GIVEN
THE WARM TEMPERATURES (UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE). PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5-1.9 INCHES. WIND FIELDS
WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL WITH 500 MB WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 40
KTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING LOW AND MID-LEVEL WINDS
PRODUCES 0-6KM VERTICAL SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 35-40 KTS...SUPPORTIVE
OF SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS. THUS A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE MID-EVENING
HOURS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA BEING FROM THE NORTH CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD LIKELY TAKE THE FORM OF
LINE SEGMENTS...AN INDICATION OFFERED BY SOME OF THE HI- RES
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH SPC`S
AFTERNOON DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. THERE`S SOME QUESTION HOW FAR
EAST THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING. FOR NOW I HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
FOR WEDNESDAY: COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRIGGER THE STORMS TUESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD. IT`S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT FRONTAL POSITION AS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED TO SOME DEGREE BY
SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY EVENING. PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH PLACES SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY CAN BE PRODUCED. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY CAN
DEVELOP. BASED ON PRESENT INDICATIONS FEEL THE PRIMARY AREA FOR ANY
STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD - BUT I WON`T INDICATE ENHANCED WORDING YET UNTIL THERE`S
MORE CLARITY ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST TAPERING TO
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE WITH WESTWARD EXTENT. STILL QUITE WARM AND
HUMID...BUT CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT. I`VE GONE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 60S (A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
EAST VT).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 431 PM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE
GONE WITH A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE
LOCATIONS... WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
...WITH THE GFS MODEL DRY. THE ECMWF MODEL KEEPS A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE SUPER-
BLEND POPS FOR FRIDAY AND KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER VERMONT...AS
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD AS MODELS SHOWING A
TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THEN TURN
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WERE OVER THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH JUST SOME CUMULUS
CLOUDS AND SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z TUESDAY DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OR JUST SOME
HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
HINTING AT SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT...BUT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE ARE FAIRLY STRONG...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AT THIS TIME. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...SO SOME SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOT ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13Z-18Z AND BEYOND ON
TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH WITH A SLOWLY INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AND BRIEF IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST COVERAGE
DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY WITH SHOWER THREAT
DIMINISHING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 156 PM EDT MONDAY...THE AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM
(AWOS) AT THE RUTLAND-SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT)
WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE ON TUESDAY, JULY 1, FROM 14Z-18Z (1000 AM
EDT-200 PM EDT) FOR MAINTENANCE.
THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT DATA SENSORS AT THE AUTOMATED WEATHER
OBSERVING SYSTEM (AWOS) AT THE NEWPORT STATE AIRPORT IN NEWPORT
VERMONT (KEFK) ARE OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. THE VERMONT
AGENCY OF TRANSPORTATION HAS INFORMED THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BURLINGTON THAT PARTS ARE ON BACK ORDER TO FIX THIS, BUT THAT
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT DATA AT THIS SITE MAY NOT BE RESTORED UNTIL
EARLY SEPTEMBER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
406 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. THE WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE
TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF AT NIGHT. AN INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ON TUESDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST...WITH
LINGERING STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY EAST OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER THEN RETURNS BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT MONDAY...LATE-AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER ACROSS ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW
YORK. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORMING IN AN ENVIRONMENT
THAT`S SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE PER RAP STABILITY ANALYSES (LI`S OF -2 TO
-3 AND SFC- BASED CAPES OF 500 TO 900 J/KG). APPEARS THAT
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE ZONE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO GET
THESE TO GO. THESE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN
THROUGH SUNSET AS THEY MOVE OFF THAT ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ACROSS
ONTARIO...THOUGH DEVELOPING IN A REGIME OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
SWLYS/MEAN SW STORM MOTION VECTORS. THUS...FEEL THIS ACTIVITY
WOULD LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS HAVING CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. IT MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT DUE TO A LITTLE LESS CLOUDS AND HIGHS BEING A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH. I`VE OFFERED LOWS IN THE
60S...WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS UNDER A LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE COUPLE DAYS IN STORE WITH SEVERAL
ISSUES TO ADDRESS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS INCLUDES
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLE LINGERING THREAT FOR STRONG
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
ON TUESDAY: LOOKING AT A HAZY HOT AND HUMID DAY...AND FOR MANY IT
WILL BE THE FIRST DAY THIS SUMMER WHERE THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE. WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKES PLACE AT LOW-LEVELS BRINGING IN 925 MB TEMPS OF +23 TO +25C.
THAT WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER
90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS
ALREADY IN PLACE...APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. THIS ISN`T QUITE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SO I HAVEN`T
ISSUED ANY HEAT HEADLINES...BUT THE APPARENT TEMPS ARE HIGH ENOUGH
TO MAKE IT FEEL A BIT OPPRESSIVE. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ALSO BE
QUITE WARM AS WELL WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FORECAST. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY MENTION HEAT CONCERNS IN THE HWO.
TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPPED TO CONVECTION.
THE INCREASING THERMAL ADVECTION BRINGS IN 700 MB TEMPS OF NEAR
+10C AND GUIDANCE SHOW NO EVIDENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OR FRONTAL
FORCING TO BREAK THIS CAP. THAT LOOKS TO CHANGE BY MID AFTERNOON AS
LEADING EDGE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW TIED TO THE SLOW-MOVING
UPPER MIDWEST LOW INTRUDES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALREADY HAVE DEVELOPED GIVEN
THE WARM TEMPERATURES (UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE). PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5-1.9 INCHES. WIND FIELDS
WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL WITH 500 MB WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 40
KTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING LOW AND MID-LEVEL WINDS
PRODUCES 0-6KM VERTICAL SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 35-40 KTS...SUPPORTIVE
OF SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS. THUS A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE MID-EVENING
HOURS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA BEING FROM THE NORTH CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD LIKELY TAKE THE FORM OF
LINE SEGMENTS...AN INDICATION OFFERED BY SOME OF THE HI- RES
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH SPC`S
AFTERNOON DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. THERE`S SOME QUESTION HOW FAR
EAST THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING. FOR NOW I HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
FOR WEDNESDAY: COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRIGGER THE STORMS TUESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD. IT`S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT FRONTAL POSITION AS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED TO SOME DEGREE BY
SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY EVENING. PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH PLACES SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY CAN BE PRODUCED. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY CAN
DEVELOP. BASED ON PRESENT INDICATIONS FEEL THE PRIMARY AREA FOR ANY
STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD - BUT I WON`T INDICATE ENHANCED WORDING YET UNTIL THERE`S
MORE CLARITY ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST TAPERING TO
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE WITH WESTWARD EXTENT. STILL QUITE WARM AND
HUMID...BUT CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT. I`VE GONE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 60S (A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
EAST VT).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AS WE PROGRESS FROM
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
MORNING`S GLOBAL SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN DECENT OVERALL CONSISTENCY IN
SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AREA ON WED NT/THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDER. BEST THREAT OF THUNDER WILL GENERALLY OCCUR
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
DEPARTING BOUNDARY AND PBL INSTABILITY. COULD STILL SEE SOME
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WITH ANY ACTIVITY GIVEN PWATS REMAIN HIGH
ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER WEST TRENDING SLOWLY PCPN-FREE AS
POST- FRONTAL LOW LEVEL DRYING IS USHERED IN ON DEVELOPING
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
BY FRIDAY LARGE-SCALE DRYING CONTINUES WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EAST DIMINISHING OVER TIME AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PULLS SLOWLY AWAY TO OUR EAST. THEREAFTER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER NICE WEEKEND
WITH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS HERE
AND THERE WITH PARENT UPPER H5 TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH...BUT
GENERAL IDEA OF CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES APPEARS REASONABLE
ATTM. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL
EARLY SUMMER NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 (SLIGHTLY MILDER WED
NIGHT).
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WERE OVER THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH JUST SOME CUMULUS
CLOUDS AND SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z TUESDAY DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OR JUST SOME
HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
HINTING AT SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT...BUT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE ARE FAIRLY STRONG...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AT THIS TIME. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...SO SOME SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOT ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13Z-18Z AND BEYOND ON
TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH WITH A SLOWLY INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AND BRIEF IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST COVERAGE
DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY WITH SHOWER THREAT
DIMINISHING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 156 PM EDT MONDAY...THE AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM
(AWOS) AT THE RUTLAND-SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT)
WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE ON TUESDAY, JULY 1, FROM 14Z-18Z (1000 AM
EDT-200 PM EDT) FOR MAINTENANCE.
THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT DATA SENSORS AT THE AUTOMATED WEATHER
OBSERVING SYSTEM (AWOS) AT THE NEWPORT STATE AIRPORT IN NEWPORT
VERMONT (KEFK) ARE OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. THE VERMONT
AGENCY OF TRANSPORTATION HAS INFORMED THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BURLINGTON THAT PARTS ARE ON BACK ORDER TO FIX THIS, BUT THAT
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT DATA AT THIS SITE MAY NOT BE RESTORED UNTIL
EARLY SEPTEMBER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
351 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP A SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FOR NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE EXPECT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOME OF THIS STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN LATER TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
NY. THIS FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW JERSEY BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADARS SHOWS ISLD SHRA POPPING UP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NY AND
NERN PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND
1500 J/KG ACRS C NY AND NC PA. WITH CONTINUED INSOLATION I EXPECT
MIXED LAYER CAPES TO APPRCH 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SFC
BASED CAPES OVER 2500 J/KG. THIS IS NOT FAR OFF FROM THE 12Z NAM
PROJECTIONS. THE 12Z GFS HAS A LITTLE LESS CAPE BUT IT IS IN THE
BALL PARK. THE LARGER SCALE FORCING WAS RATHER WEAK THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST RAP SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL PV LOBE TRACK ACRS C NY AND NE
PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE PASSES E OF NY AND PA THIS EVENING IN
TANDEM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAY/S HEATING. FOR POPS I RAMP UP TO
LOW CHC IN THE HILLS OF C NY BY ARND 21Z. I ANTICIPATE SOME MTN
VALLEY CIRCULATIONS AND OR UPSLOPE WILL AIDE IN DEVELOPMENT. BUT
BY AND LARGE...THE ACVTY WILL REMAIN ISLD FOR THE MOST PART. WITH
DECENT CAPE I WUD NOT SURPRISE THAT WE SEE A STRG STORM OR TWO.
ALL THE ACVTY WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET.
FOR TUESDAY...THERE ARE MULTIPLE HAZARDS TO CONSIDER. FIRST, ISSUED
A HEAT ADVY FOR OUR NRN COUNTIES ALONG THE FINGER LAKES DRAINAGE
AND LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL POOL TO LOWER 70S AND
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING ON SRLY WINDS AND THE GENERAL LOW ELEVATIONS
MAXES SHUD CLIMB ABV 90F. COMPUTED HEAT INDICES TUE AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM 97 TO 102F IN LARGE PARTS OF THESE AREAS.
NEXT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRG TO SVR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH REALLY
BEGINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTS INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BUILDING DURG THE DAY AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SRLY
WINDS...MIXED LAYER CAPES LIKELY WILL EXCEED 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN NE PA WHERE THE LL WINDS ARE LESS
STRONG...DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT LOWER. BUT STILL SEE CAPES ON THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARND 1500 J/KG. IN ADDTN...ALL LARGER SCALE
MODELS SHOW THAT A LOW-LEVEL WAVE WILL RIDE UP THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE LARGE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SC CANADA TUE.
THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE LL WINDS AND AS A RESULT LL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY STRG. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR IS PROJECTED TO BE 20
TO 25 KNOTS TUE AFTERNOON AND UP TO 30 KNOTS TUE EVE. THE 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR IS SIMILAR TO THE 0-1 KM WITH THE 0-6 KM PROJECTED TO
BE ARND 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE SHEAR WILL BE STRGR IN NC NY AND
WEAKER IN NE PA. HENCE SLGHT RISK AREA AS PER SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK
LOOKS ON TRACK HAVING CNTRL NY AND NC PA IN THE SLGHT RISK AREA
TUE/TUE EVE. SINCE THE SHEAR IS STRG IN THE LL/S...ANY ORGANIZED
ACVTY LIKELY WILL BE LINEAR IN NATURE SO A FEW BROKEN LINES AND
EVEN A BOW ECHO IS POSSIBLE. IT DEPENDS ON HOW UNSTBL THE AMS
BECOMES AND IF THE LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL BE STRG ENUF TO FOCUS
THE CONVECTION.
NEXT THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. PWATS APPRCH 2.0 INCHES AND THE LL FLOW IS STRG
ENUF TO BALANCE THE MEAN CLD LAYER WINDS. THUS IF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOW A TENDENCY TO BACK BUILD...INSTEAD OF BEING FORWARD
PROPAGATING...MESO BETA ELEMENT VECTORS ARE SMALL. I COULD SEE A
SCENARIO WHERE WE GET A LINE OR A FEW BROKEN LINES OF STRG TO SVR
STORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/ERLY EVE THAT PROPAGATE FORWARD BUT
TREND TWD BACKWARD PROPAGATION LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE DAY/S
HEATING IS LOST AND STORMS WILL DERIVE INSTABILITY MORE FROM LL
ADVECTION. OUR LOCAL ANALOG SEVERE WEATHER CHECKLIST RETURNED THE
COLCHESTER FLASH FLOOD EVENT OF 2007 AND ALSO ANOTHER EVENT THAT
HAD A SMALLER FLASH FLOOD. BOTH OF THESE EVENTS WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS. FOR NOW HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE WIND AND
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACVTY CONTINUE
UNTIL AT LEAST LATE EVENING...BUT DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT
OF THE CONVECTION IT CUD LAST EVEN LONGER SO KEPT POPS GOING THRU
THE OVERNIGHT TO WED AM. THE FRONTAL BNDRY THAT PRESSES E TUESDAY
WILL REACH THE ERN LAKES BY WED AM.
THIS FRONT WILL PUSH EWRD ON WED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES E IN ASSCTN WITH THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVG EWRD IN
SERN CANADA. THIS WILL LIKELY FIRE MORE SHRA AND TSRA FOR WED.
THE FRONT IS STILL PROJECTED TO BE LINGERING FROM SERN NY TO NE PA
IN THE BGM FORECAST AREA LATE WED NGT. THEN ON THURSDAY ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL PRESS THE FRONT WELL E OF THE REGION BUT ALL
SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE A SFC WAVE WILL FORM ON THIS BNDRY NEAR SERN
PA/NJ AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSRA TO THE REGION FOR THU.
LATEST 12Z EURO SUGGESTS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE CUD GET ENTRAINED
INTO THIS SURFACE WAVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CIRCULATION
SETS UP TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS HAS THE LOOK AND FEEL OF A
PREDECESSOR HEAVY TROPICAL RAIN EVENT. EURO QPF HAS A STRIPE OF
HEAVY RAIN ACRS NE PA TO ERN NY THU PM. SO KEPT POPS GOING INTO
THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
ITSELF WILL AFFECT THE REGION WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
345 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE MID-WEST BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH SAT MORNING. THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRIDAY AND NW SFC IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO
LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE CWA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
CWA. A SFC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE CWA WITH QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE WARMING TREND HEADING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPR 40S TO MID 50S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE IS PRESENT AND WEAK WAVES
ALOFT MOVE OVER THE REGION. THESE TYPE OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MOSTLY PULSE IN NATURE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF. DECIDED
NOT TO PLACE IN TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS AND WILL
AMD IF NEEDED. THESE WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DISSIPATE BY
LATE EVENING. TONIGHT... EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AND SKIES TO
BECOME HAZY. TOWARDS SUNRISE VISBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 3SM BUT
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12 KNOTS. A LOW END MVFR DECK MAY DEVELOP
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
PLACE IN TAF ATTM. A VFR CU DECK WILL DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON
AGAIN DUE TO ALL THE LOW LVL MOISTURE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM.
OUTLOOK...
TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NGT...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT
SHRA/TSRA...BEST POTENTIAL TUE LATE AFTN-EVE. POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG KELM
TUE NGT.
WED THROUGH THU...RESTRICTIONS FROM RA/TSRA AS MOIST COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE WED TO EARLY THU.
THU NGT THROUGH FRI...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ015>018.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
304 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP A SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FOR NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE EXPECT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOME OF THIS STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN LATER TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
NY. THIS FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW JERSEY BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADARS SHOWS ISLD SHRA POPPING UP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NY AND
NERN PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND
1500 J/KG ACRS C NY AND NC PA. WITH CONTINUED INSOLATION I EXPECT
MIXED LAYER CAPES TO APPRCH 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SFC
BASED CAPES OVER 2500 J/KG. THIS IS NOT FAR OFF FROM THE 12Z NAM
PROJECTIONS. THE 12Z GFS HAS A LITTLE LESS CAPE BUT IT IS IN THE
BALL PARK. THE LARGER SCALE FORCING WAS RATHER WEAK THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST RAP SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL PV LOBE TRACK ACRS C NY AND NE
PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE PASSES E OF NY AND PA THIS EVENING IN
TANDEM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAY/S HEATING. FOR POPS I RAMP UP TO
LOW CHC IN THE HILLS OF C NY BY ARND 21Z. I ANTICIPATE SOME MTN
VALLEY CIRCULATIONS AND OR UPSLOPE WILL AIDE IN DEVELOPMENT. BUT
BY AND LARGE...THE ACVTY WILL REMAIN ISLD FOR THE MOST PART. WITH
DECENT CAPE I WUD NOT SURPRISE THAT WE SEE A STRG STORM OR TWO.
ALL THE ACVTY WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET.
FOR TUESDAY...THERE ARE MULTIPLE HAZARDS TO CONSIDER. FIRST, ISSUED
A HEAT ADVY FOR OUR NRN COUNTIES ALONG THE FINGER LAKES DRAINAGE
AND LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL POOL TO LOWER 70S AND
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING ON SRLY WINDS AND THE GENERAL LOW ELEVATIONS
MAXES SHUD CLIMB ABV 90F. COMPUTED HEAT INDICES TUE AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM 97 TO 102F IN LARGE PARTS OF THESE AREAS.
NEXT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRG TO SVR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH REALLY
BEGINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTS INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BUILDING DURG THE DAY AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SRLY
WINDS...MIXED LAYER CAPES LIKELY WILL EXCEED 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN NE PA WHERE THE LL WINDS ARE LESS
STRONG...DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT LOWER. BUT STILL SEE CAPES ON THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARND 1500 J/KG. IN ADDTN...ALL LARGER SCALE
MODELS SHOW THAT A LOW-LEVEL WAVE WILL RIDE UP THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE LARGE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SC CANADA TUE.
THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE LL WINDS AND AS A RESULT LL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY STRG. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR IS PROJECTED TO BE 20
TO 25 KNOTS TUE AFTERNOON AND UP TO 30 KNOTS TUE EVE. THE 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR IS SIMILAR TO THE 0-1 KM WITH THE 0-6 KM PROJECTED TO
BE ARND 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE SHEAR WILL BE STRGR IN NC NY AND
WEAKER IN NE PA. HENCE SLGHT RISK AREA AS PER SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK
LOOKS ON TRACK HAVING CNTRL NY AND NC PA IN THE SLGHT RISK AREA
TUE/TUE EVE. SINCE THE SHEAR IS STRG IN THE LL/S...ANY ORGANIZED
ACVTY LIKELY WILL BE LINEAR IN NATURE SO A FEW BROKEN LINES AND
EVEN A BOW ECHO IS POSSIBLE. IT DEPENDS ON HOW UNSTBL THE AMS
BECOMES AND IF THE LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL BE STRG ENUF TO FOCUS
THE CONVECTION.
NEXT THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. PWATS APPRCH 2.0 INCHES AND THE LL FLOW IS STRG
ENUF TO BALANCE THE MEAN CLD LAYER WINDS. THUS IF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOW A TENDENCY TO BACK BUILD...INSTEAD OF BEING FORWARD
PROPAGATING...MESO BETA ELEMENT VECTORS ARE SMALL. I COULD SEE A
SCENARIO WHERE WE GET A LINE OR A FEW BROKEN LINES OF STRG TO SVR
STORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/ERLY EVE THAT PROPAGATE FORWARD BUT
TREND TWD BACKWARD PROPAGATION LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE DAY/S
HEATING IS LOST AND STORMS WILL DERIVE INSTABILITY MORE FROM LL
ADVECTION. OUR LOCAL ANALOG SEVERE WEATHER CHECKLIST RETURNED THE
COLCHESTER FLASH FLOOD EVENT OF 2007 AND ALSO ANOTHER EVENT THAT
HAD A SMALLER FLASH FLOOD. BOTH OF THESE EVENTS WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS. FOR NOW HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE WIND AND
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACVTY CONTINUE
UNTIL AT LEAST LATE EVENING...BUT DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT
OF THE CONVECTION IT CUD LAST EVEN LONGER SO KEPT POPS GOING THRU
THE OVERNIGHT TO WED AM. THE FRONTAL BNDRY THAT PRESSES E TUESDAY
WILL REACH THE ERN LAKES BY WED AM.
THIS FRONT WILL PUSH EWRD ON WED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES E IN ASSCTN WITH THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVG EWRD IN
SERN CANADA. THIS WILL LIKELY FIRE MORE SHRA AND TSRA FOR WED.
THE FRONT IS STILL PROJECTED TO BE LINGERING FROM SERN NY TO NE PA
IN THE BGM FORECAST AREA LATE WED NGT. THEN ON THURSDAY ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL PRESS THE FRONT WELL E OF THE REGION BUT ALL
SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE A SFC WAVE WILL FORM ON THIS BNDRY NEAR SERN
PA/NJ AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSRA TO THE REGION FOR THU.
LATEST 12Z EURO SUGGESTS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE CUD GET ENTRAINED
INTO THIS SURFACE WAVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CIRCULATION
SETS UP TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS HAS THE LOOK AND FEEL OF A
PREDECESSOR HEAVY TROPICAL RAIN EVENT. EURO QPF HAS A STRIPE OF
HEAVY RAIN ACRS NE PA TO ERN NY THU PM. SO KEPT POPS GOING INTO
THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
ITSELF WILL AFFECT THE REGION WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
320 AM UPDATE...
MINOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE ACCOUNTING FOR LATEST WPC
GUIDANCE AND MODEL RUNS. MODELS STILL SHOW INCOMING SURFACE COLD
FRONT BECOMING NEARLY FLOW PARALLEL WITH TIME...SO THE FRONT
STRUGGLES TO PRESS THROUGH THE REGION BEFORE APPROACHING LONGWAVE
TROUGH FINALLY KICKS IT THROUGH. CONCERNS REMAIN FOR LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AS
DISCUSSED BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING AN
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
MIDWEST THIS WEEK WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE THURSDAY-THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME OFFERING UP THE FINAL ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE REGION. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN
THIS AIRMASS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DEEP
BULK SHEAR MAY ALSO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE. THEN...A BROAD
AND UNSEASONABLY FRESH AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD IN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH FAIR
SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE IS PRESENT AND WEAK WAVES
ALOFT MOVE OVER THE REGION. THESE TYPE OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MOSTLY PULSE IN NATURE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF. DECIDED
NOT TO PLACE IN TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS AND WILL
AMD IF NEEDED. THESE WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DISSIPATE BY
LATE EVENING. TONIGHT... EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AND SKIES TO
BECOME HAZY. TOWARDS SUNRISE VISBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 3SM BUT
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12 KNOTS. A LOW END MVFR DECK MAY DEVELOP
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
PLACE IN TAF ATTM. A VFR CU DECK WILL DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON
AGAIN DUE TO ALL THE LOW LVL MOISTURE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM.
OUTLOOK...
TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NGT...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT
SHRA/TSRA...BEST POTENTIAL TUE LATE AFTN-EVE. POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG KELM
TUE NGT.
WED THROUGH THU...RESTRICTIONS FROM RA/TSRA AS MOIST COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE WED TO EARLY THU.
THU NGT THROUGH FRI...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ015>018.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...JAB/MDP
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
149 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP A SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FOR NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE
EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. SOME OF THIS STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN LATER TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
NY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR SHOWS SHRA AND ISLD TSRA PERSISTING IN THE SRN CATSKILLS AT
THIS TIME IN ASSCTN WITH A WEAKENING SHRT WAVE THAT HAS TRACKED E
OVERNIGHT AND WAS NOW ALMOST UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RDG AXIS. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONT E AND ALL PRECIP SHUD EXIT THE SRN CATSKILLS BY
AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO TO COVER DOWN
THERE. REST OF CENTRAL NY/NE PA WAS DRY AT THIS TIME.
MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ASSCTD WITH STRG LATE JUNE
INSOLATION. MODELS BUILD UP CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG OR
EVEN MORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NC NY TO WRN NY WITH MUCH LESSER CAPE
VALUES FARTHER SOUTH TWD NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS. THIS IS ASSCTD
WITH STRGER SWRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW THAT CONTINUES TO PREFERENTIAL
ADVECT HIGHER BNDRY LAYER DEWPOINTS UP THRU WRN NY WITH HIGHER
MEAN BL DEWPOINTS THAN FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS. CAPES THIS AFTERNOON CONSISTENTLY ARE HIGHER IN OUR NW
COUNTIES...FINGER LAKES TO SYR AREA ON ALL MODELS. THE LATEST NAM
HAS CAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG AND IN MANY OF THESE AREAS WELL
VER 2000 J/KG!! THE GFS AND EURO ARE TAMER WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
WHICH STILL IS HEALTHY. THE NAM HAS SFC DWPTS ARND 71-72F IN NC NY WHICH
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SO WE KNOW WE ARE GOING TO HAVE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT CAPE IN
CENTRAL NY FOR TSRA. MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE IS THE FORCING GOING
TO COME FROM? THE WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FAIRLY WEAK AS WELL SO ANY
STORMS THAT FORM WON`T BE TOO ORGANIZED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A BARRAGE OF SMALLER SHORT WAVES OR MORE LIKELY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVES FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION HEADING E-NE
TWD NY AND PA THRU TUESDAY AM. THE NEXT WAVE THAT WAS APPROACHING
OUR AREA WAS OVER THE ERN LAKES ASSCTD WITH DARKENING ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. LATEST RAP ALSO SHOWS THIS WAVE ACVTY AS TROP
PRESSURES ARE A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN PRESSURE BASED ON THE 1.5 PVU
UNIT SFC. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME OMEGA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL
BEFORE THE MODELS CONVECT OUT SUGGESTING SOME SORT OF LARGER SCALE
ASCENT. SO I EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO FIRE IN C NY AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT NE PA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
NEXT QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD? THE LATEST MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW SCT ACVTY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN CNTRL
AND WRN NY BUT VARY IN HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACVTY IS. LOOKING AT
VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY YOU CAN SEE A CUMULUS FIELD EVOLVING ACRS C
AND WRN NY WITH SOME CLUMPING APPARENT IN A FEW SPOTS. GIVEN THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS RATHER WEAK AND THERE IS NO WELL DEFINED
BOUNDARIES I WILL LIMIT POPS FROM SLGHT CHC FOR TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON FOR C AND NC NY. I WILL PEAK THE POPS AT CHC IN OUR
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NY WHERE MTNS ADD TO THE UPDRAFTS. GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL HIGH CAPES AND DRY AIR AT MID-LEVELS...THERE CUD BE
A STRONG STORM OR TWO. LOCAL CHECKLIST RETURNS MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
STORMS USING SYR NAM SOUNDING. SO I WILL MENTION CHC FOR STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IN HWO FOR AFTERNOON.
AFTER SUNSET...ACVTY SHUD WIND DOWN WITH LOSS OF DAY/S HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
500 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NY
BY 0Z WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TRIGGER WILL BE A RIPE ATMOSPHERE
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIAL JUICE FOR STORMS WITH CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. WITH 0-6
KM SHEAR LACKING A BIT (25 KTS) AND A WARM/HUMID ATMOSPHERE, LARGE
HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A PRIMARY RISK. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
A MUCH GREATER THREAT WITH VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB AND
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR, SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF BOW ECHOES.
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT, VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
WITH FLASH FLOODING A CONCERN WITH PWATS (A MEASURE OF MOISTURE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE) OVER 2 INCHES, OR OVER 200% OF NORMAL! OUR SEVERE
WEATHER CHECKLIST HAS MANY PAST ANALOGS OF A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MAIN STORM MODE, WITH A FEW PULSE STORMS
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. CONFIDENCE IN A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS AS THE STORM MODE IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF MATCHES IN THE DATABASE. BASED ON TIMING THIS SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE CWA BETWEEN 20Z AND 24Z. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HWO. WILL ALSO ADD
MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY
(MAINLY NY STATE) AS SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK.
THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES THROUGH PART OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY HANG UP OVER NEPA. THIS WILL KEEP
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
320 AM UPDATE...
MINOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE ACCOUNTING FOR LATEST WPC
GUIDANCE AND MODEL RUNS. MODELS STILL SHOW INCOMING SURFACE COLD
FRONT BECOMING NEARLY FLOW PARALLEL WITH TIME...SO THE FRONT
STRUGGLES TO PRESS THROUGH THE REGION BEFORE APPROACHING LONGWAVE
TROUGH FINALLY KICKS IT THROUGH. CONCERNS REMAIN FOR LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AS
DISCUSSED BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING AN
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
MIDWEST THIS WEEK WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE THURSDAY-THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME OFFERING UP THE FINAL ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE REGION. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN
THIS AIRMASS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DEEP
BULK SHEAR MAY ALSO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE. THEN...A BROAD
AND UNSEASONABLY FRESH AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD IN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH FAIR
SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE IS PRESENT AND WEAK WAVES
ALOFT MOVE OVER THE REGION. THESE TYPE OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MOSTLY PULSE IN NATURE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF. DECIDED
NOT TO PLACE IN TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS AND WILL
AMD IF NEEDED. THESE WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DISSIPATE BY
LATE EVENING. TONIGHT... EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AND SKIES TO
BECOME HAZY. TOWARDS SUNRISE VISBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 3SM BUT
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12 KNOTS. A LOW END MVFR DECK MAY DEVELOP
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
PLACE IN TAF ATTM. A VFR CU DECK WILL DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON
AGAIN DUE TO ALL THE LOW LVL MOISTURE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM.
OUTLOOK...
TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NGT...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT
SHRA/TSRA...BEST POTENTIAL TUE LATE AFTN-EVE. POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG KELM
TUE NGT.
WED THROUGH THU...RESTRICTIONS FROM RA/TSRA AS MOIST COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE WED TO EARLY THU.
THU NGT THROUGH FRI...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ015>018.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...JAB/MDP
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1135 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP A SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FOR NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE
EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. SOME OF THIS STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN LATER TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
NY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR SHOWS SHRA AND ISLD TSRA PERSISTING IN THE SRN CATSKILLS AT
THIS TIME IN ASSCTN WITH A WEAKENING SHRT WAVE THAT HAS TRACKED E
OVERNIGHT AND WAS NOW ALMOST UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RDG AXIS. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONT E AND ALL PRECIP SHUD EXIT THE SRN CATSKILLS BY
AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO TO COVER DOWN
THERE. REST OF CENTRAL NY/NE PA WAS DRY AT THIS TIME.
MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ASSCTD WITH STRG LATE JUNE
INSOLATION. MODELS BUILD UP CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG OR
EVEN MORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NC NY TO WRN NY WITH MUCH LESSER CAPE
VALUES FARTHER SOUTH TWD NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS. THIS IS ASSCTD
WITH STRGER SWRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW THAT CONTINUES TO PREFERENTIAL
ADVECT HIGHER BNDRY LAYER DEWPOINTS UP THRU WRN NY WITH HIGHER
MEAN BL DEWPOINTS THAN FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS. CAPES THIS AFTERNOON CONSISTENTLY ARE HIGHER IN OUR NW
COUNTIES...FINGER LAKES TO SYR AREA ON ALL MODELS. THE LATEST NAM
HAS CAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG AND IN MANY OF THESE AREAS WELL
VER 2000 J/KG!! THE GFS AND EURO ARE TAMER WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
WHICH STILL IS HEALTHY. THE NAM HAS SFC DWPTS ARND 71-72F IN NC NY WHICH
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SO WE KNOW WE ARE GOING TO HAVE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT CAPE IN
CENTRAL NY FOR TSRA. MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE IS THE FORCING GOING
TO COME FROM? THE WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FAIRLY WEAK AS WELL SO ANY
STORMS THAT FORM WON`T BE TOO ORGANIZED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A BARRAGE OF SMALLER SHORT WAVES OR MORE LIKELY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVES FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION HEADING E-NE
TWD NY AND PA THRU TUESDAY AM. THE NEXT WAVE THAT WAS APPROACHING
OUR AREA WAS OVER THE ERN LAKES ASSCTD WITH DARKENING ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. LATEST RAP ALSO SHOWS THIS WAVE ACVTY AS TROP
PRESSURES ARE A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN PRESSURE BASED ON THE 1.5 PVU
UNIT SFC. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME OMEGA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL
BEFORE THE MODELS CONVECT OUT SUGGESTING SOME SORT OF LARGER SCALE
ASCENT. SO I EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO FIRE IN C NY AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT NE PA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
NEXT QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD? THE LATEST MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW SCT ACVTY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN CNTRL
AND WRN NY BUT VARY IN HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACVTY IS. LOOKING AT
VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY YOU CAN SEE A CUMULUS FIELD EVOLVING ACRS C
AND WRN NY WITH SOME CLUMPING APPARENT IN A FEW SPOTS. GIVEN THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS RATHER WEAK AND THERE IS NO WELL DEFINED
BOUNDARIES I WILL LIMIT POPS FROM SLGHT CHC FOR TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON FOR C AND NC NY. I WILL PEAK THE POPS AT CHC IN OUR
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NY WHERE MTNS ADD TO THE UPDRAFTS. GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL HIGH CAPES AND DRY AIR AT MID-LEVELS...THERE CUD BE
A STRONG STORM OR TWO. LOCAL CHECKLIST RETURNS MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
STORMS USING SYR NAM SOUNDING. SO I WILL MENTION CHC FOR STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IN HWO FOR AFTERNOON.
AFTER SUNSET...ACVTY SHUD WIND DOWN WITH LOSS OF DAY/S HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
500 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NY
BY 0Z WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TRIGGER WILL BE A RIPE ATMOSPHERE
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIAL JUICE FOR STORMS WITH CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. WITH 0-6
KM SHEAR LACKING A BIT (25 KTS) AND A WARM/HUMID ATMOSPHERE, LARGE
HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A PRIMARY RISK. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
A MUCH GREATER THREAT WITH VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB AND
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR, SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF BOW ECHOES.
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT, VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
WITH FLASH FLOODING A CONCERN WITH PWATS (A MEASURE OF MOISTURE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE) OVER 2 INCHES, OR OVER 200% OF NORMAL! OUR SEVERE
WEATHER CHECKLIST HAS MANY PAST ANALOGS OF A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MAIN STORM MODE, WITH A FEW PULSE STORMS
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. CONFIDENCE IN A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS AS THE STORM MODE IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF MATCHES IN THE DATABASE. BASED ON TIMING THIS SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE CWA BETWEEN 20Z AND 24Z. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HWO. WILL ALSO ADD
MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY
(MAINLY NY STATE) AS SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK.
THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES THROUGH PART OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY HANG UP OVER NEPA. THIS WILL KEEP
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
320 AM UPDATE...
MINOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE ACCOUNTING FOR LATEST WPC
GUIDANCE AND MODEL RUNS. MODELS STILL SHOW INCOMING SURFACE COLD
FRONT BECOMING NEARLY FLOW PARALLEL WITH TIME...SO THE FRONT
STRUGGLES TO PRESS THROUGH THE REGION BEFORE APPROACHING LONGWAVE
TROUGH FINALLY KICKS IT THROUGH. CONCERNS REMAIN FOR LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AS
DISCUSSED BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING AN
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
MIDWEST THIS WEEK WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE THURSDAY-THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME OFFERING UP THE FINAL ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE REGION. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN
THIS AIRMASS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DEEP
BULK SHEAR MAY ALSO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE. THEN...A BROAD
AND UNSEASONABLY FRESH AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD IN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH FAIR
SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR FOR TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT SOME MIST/VALLEY
FOG POTENTIAL DURING PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING...AND BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FROM SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORM TODAY. WITH MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SMALL UPPER
WAVES HAVE GENERATED A COUPLE BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS...YET
WEAKENING WHILE RUNNING INTO OUR CURRENT RIDGE. ONCE NOMINAL AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY GETS GOING WITH HEATING LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO BE QUICKLY DROPPING AS
WEAKENING WAVE HEADS EAST. ALL TOLD...A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS EXPECTED
AT SEVERAL TERMINALS AS INDICATED VIA TEMPO GROUPS THIS MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDER POTENTIAL IS MORE MUTED AND NOT
INCLUDED IN ANY TAF AT THIS TIME. BKN CLOUD DECKS TO BECOME MORE
SCT OR EVEN FEW LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE WEAKENING WAVE. WINDS S TO SSW 5-8 KTS BY DAY...VARIABLE TO
SSW 2-6 KTS BY NIGHT EXCEPT SE 5 KTS KRME THIS MORNING. KAVP/KELM
MVFR VIS LATE TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR VIS VALLEY FOG KELM
TOWARDS DAWN.
OUTLOOK...
TUE THROUGH TUE NGT...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...BEST
POTENTIAL TUE AFTN-EVE. POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG KELM AGAIN TUE NGT.
WED THROUGH THU...RESTRICTIONS FROM RA/TSRA AS MOIST COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE WED TO EARLY THU.
THU NGT THROUGH FRI...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...JAB/MDP
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
130 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BRINGING A SLOW WARMING TREND. AN AREA OF
TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST MAY LIFT TO
THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...CIRRUS FROM DYING CONVECTION IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND WESTERN PIEDMONT IS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. TYPICALLY THIN CIRRUS LIKE
THIS LOOKS A LOT WORSE ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THAN IT DOES
FROM THE GROUND...SO I WILL MAINTAIN SKY COVER FORECASTS BELOW 15
PERCENT OVERNIGHT WHICH YIELDS "CLEAR" IN THE FORECAST PHASE-OLOGY.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW 5 KNOTS AT ALL AIRPORT ASOS/AWOS
SITES AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. I HAVE TWEAKED LOWS DOWN SLIGHTLY
ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA WITH NO CHANGES ELSEWHERE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
SURPRISINGLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS 1023 MB HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. OUR FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES. AT WILMINGTON OUR FORECAST LOW (67 DEGREES) IS IN THE
LOWEST 17 PERCENTILE FOR THIS DATE AND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
DAYTIME CUMULUS WERE LIMITED TO THE VICINITY OF THE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE DEWPOINTS
WERE HIGHEST. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MIXED DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO INTERIOR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH PRETTY DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONSIDERING THE AIRMASS AND TIME OF YEAR. FOG POTENTIAL IS
QUITE LOW OVERALL...BUT THE PEE DEE REGION OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
ALONG THE SANTEE RIVER PROBABLY HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND RUC SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
PRESENT THROUGH 800-1000 FEET AGL WITH DRYING ALOFT. THE GFS
SOUNDINGS ARE DRIER IN THE LOW-LEVELS WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE FOG.
OUR INCREASINGLY TROPICAL LOW EAST OF FLORIDA IS NOW ALMOST 400
MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR AND SHOULD STALL OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
THE OUTERMOST CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN
TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH NO IMPACTS LOCALLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SEASONABLE AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE SHORT
TERM AS THE CALENDAR TICKS INTO JULY. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
CONTROLLED BY HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BLOSSOMING FROM THE GULF COAST. ON
MONDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED NEARLY
OVERHEAD...SWEEPING OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...THICKNESSES WILL ACTUALLY BE A BIT HIGHER
THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE ALTHOUGH
COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY...INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE WILL SOMEWHAT OFFSET THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY.
STILL...ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY...WHILE MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB EARLY WEEK...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 EXPECTED MONDAY...LOW 90S ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND 70 AWAY FROM THE BEACHES...BUT ONLY INTO
THE LOW/MID 70S TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...H5 RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BREAK DOWN DURING THE EXTENDED AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
OF THE MID-WEST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK. OTHER
THAN SOME TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION ALL EYES WILL BE
ON THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. THERE IS NO CONSISTENCY EVIDENT IN
THE MODELS AT THIS TIME WITH THE NAM FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE AND ECMWF
TRACKING THE STORM OFF THE NC COAST FRIDAY. TOO MANY VARIABLES AND
INCONSISTENCIES EXIST AT THIS TIME...THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU...WHILE THE GFS IS
POSSIBLY A CATEGORY TOO HIGH FOR MAX TEMPS FRI AND SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY.
EXPECT A CANOPY OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT VFR
THROUGHOUT MONDAY. WINDS MORE E TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...
VEERING TO THE SE ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD POSSIBLY CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTERACTION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...VERY FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
LATE THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED TO A POSITION ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR THIS EVENING. THIS HAS MADE WAY FOR 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS. EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE LOW EAST OF FLORIDA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE LONG ONSHORE
FLOW HAS BUILT SEAS TO AS HIGH AS 4 FEET WITHIN 20 MILES OF
SHORE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CAPE FEAR. SEAS CURRENTLY CONSIST OF A
5-SECOND NORTHEAST WIND WAVE PLUS A 9-SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE
SHORT TERM...EVEN AS WINDS FLUCTUATE THROUGH MANY COMPASS
DIRECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DRIVES
NE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ON MONDAY...BUT AS THIS HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE
THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE UNTIL
EVENTUALLY BECOMING SW AROUND 10 KTS LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL
BE DRIVEN BY A RESIDUAL GROUND SWELL AND A 5 SEC WIND
CHOP...CREATING 2-3 FT SEAS BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THURSDAY. BIG QUESTION MARKS REMAIN
THEREAFTER DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE DISTURBED WEATHER OFF
THE GA/FL COASTS. HAVE NUDGED SEAS UP A FOOT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THE FETCH WILL LIKELY DIRECT MORE ENERGETIC WAVES
TOWARD THE COAST. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK...AGAIN ALL DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MAC/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
128 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN BY MID
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM SUNDAY...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
MOVING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND SOON APPROACHING THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE GIVEN THE CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS WHICH SHOWS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR OVER CENTRAL NC.
NEARLY ALL THERMODYNAMIC AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE EITHER JUST BEFORE...OR SHORTLY AFTER
REACHING OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE PLACES
LIKE WINSTON-SALEM AND LEXINGTON SEE A VERY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER
AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT THAT`S ABOUT AS FAR EAST AS THE SHOWERS WILL
MAKE IT BEFORE COMPLETELY DISSIPATING. THIS SCENARIO IS WELL-
SUPPORTED BY LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST TO
SPREAD EAST. LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 60S STILL LOOKS ON-TRACK GIVEN
CURRENT TEMPS/DWPTS AND CLOUDS. ANY FEW SPOTS THAT REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO DIP DOWN A LITTLE
COOLER...CLOSER TO 60. OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS...NO MAJOR GRID CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY... THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY... WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND A DIFFUSE FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS...ESSENTIALLY SEPARATING SURFACE DEW POINTS
LARGELY IN THE 50S FROM DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S OR NEAR 70F.
MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IS THE PROGRESS OF A
NARROW BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A WEAK 700MB WAVE AS
ANALYZED BY THE MAJORITY OF NWP ON THE GRADIENT OF HIGHER 850MB
THETA-E AND PRECIPITABLE WATER...MOVING EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE AND BELOW NORMAL OVERALL MOISTURE TO THE
EAST OF THE WAVE HAS RESULTED IN A STRUGGLE OF THE CLOUDS TO MOVE
MUCH PAST THE WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES OR SO...WITH PATCHY RAIN
CONFINED LARGELY TO FORSYTH COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN PERSON COUNTY.
WITH LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE...MUCH OF ANY PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING COULD BE SPRINKLES...AND THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS
SHOWN SOME EROSION OF THE WEST END OF THE CLOUD BAND AS THE RAGGED
EAST EDGE OF THE CLOUDS MOVES SLOWLY EAST. THE NAM AND THE GFS
FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL WAVE TO STEADILY MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...AND SOME OF THE BUFR SOUNDINGS WOULD
INDICATE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY TOWARD KRDU
AND KRWI OVERNIGHT. GRIDDED GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS WOULD PROVIDE FOR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT THE LATEST TRENDS AND THE
MOISTURE FIELDS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE LATEST RAP...WOULD SUGGEST
THAT IS TOO PESSIMISTIC. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL AVERAGE A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD
CREEP UP OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST...
AND WILL FORECAST LOWS MOSTLY WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS
GUIDANCE...THOUGH CERTAINLY TOWARD THE WARMER MET NEAR KRWI...MOSTLY
IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...
THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BY
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO VALUES NOW AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL...TO NEARLY TWO INCHES ON THE GFS BY 00Z TUESDAY...AND WHILE
NOT SO HIGH ON THE NAM STILL TO ABOUT 1.8 INCHES BY THE SAME TIME.
AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS...
LEAVING LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MECHANISMS FOR STRONG LIFT. BOTH THE NAM
AND THE GFS SUGGEST UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST...AND ONLY WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE MAINLY TOWARD THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT WHERE THE BETTER LIFT...RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...IS FORECAST. GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
ESSENTIALLY THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS CAPPED TO
DEEP CONVECTION EXCEPT TOWARD THE TRIAD...WHERE THERE WOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IF A STORM COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA TO
BE SUSTAINED. MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST KM IS UNDER 1000J/KG AND
DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS WEAK...UNDER 400J/KG...SO CURRENTLY THE CHANCES OF
VIGOROUS CONVECTION APPEARS LOW. LIFTED INDICES MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE
TO -2C ON THE NAM WHICH GENERATES NO QPF AT ALL IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...AND TO -4C OR SO ON THE GFS WHICH DOES PROVIDE FOR A
LARGER AREA OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON WEST
OF U.S. 1...ALTHOUGH WITH LESSER MOS GUIDANCE POPS THAN THE NAM.
SOME OF THE HRRR WRF GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WEST OF U.S. 1 MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SO WILL BLEND THE NAM...GFS...AND THE WRF
GUIDANCE AND SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
BEFORE WANING DIURNALLY. HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 90 ON AVERAGE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70...CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR. -DJF
TUE/TUE NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN TUE/TUE NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW (CURRENTLY IN MANITOBA) TRACKS ESE TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...THOUGH THE HEIGHT GRADIENT
WILL CHANGE LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE CAROLINAS. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUE AFT/EVE. FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY
OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND ALONG THE SEABREEZE...THE LATTER OF WHICH
COULD PENETRATE WELL INLAND VIA ONSHORE FLOW (S/SE). MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE PROGGED TO STEEPEN FROM THE WEST TUE AFT/EVE AS A MODIFIED
EML ADVECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT (UP
TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE)...IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
CAP AND /DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS/ THAT COULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE PRESENCE OF SUCH WEAK FORCING. HOWEVER...GIVEN A POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO DRIFT EASTWARD IN AN ENV. WHICH WOULD FAVOR
STRONG COLD POOLS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION APPEARS WARRANTED
IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT. WILL ALSO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN IN ASSOC/W ONSHORE FLOW IN
THE PRESENCE OF A WEAKER MID-LEVEL CAP (ALBEIT WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY). EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE 90-95F RANGE...WARMEST IN THE
SANDHILLS. LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW...IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON WED AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTS A WARMER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THU/FRI IN
ASSOC/W INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/
CAROLINAS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS IN ASSOC/W THE
POTENTIAL FOR HOMEGROWN TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WED-FRI. IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST...THERE ARE TWO PRIMARY
SCENARIOS: 1) IF THE TRACK IS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND/OR THE
APPROACHING TROUGH IS SLOWER...PRECIP CHANCES COULD BE LOWER THAN
OTHERWISE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL PLAIN IN ASSOC/W SUBSIDENCE AND A
DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM...OR 2)
IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE COAST (OR INLAND) AND THE TROUGH
APPROACHES AS PROGGED BY 12Z GUIDANCE...THEN THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD
FAVOR A `LEFT OF TRACK` SCENARIO WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC. GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION WED-FRI IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OFFSHORE THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY SATURDAY...STEERING THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE OFFSHORE WITH EVENTUAL INTERACTION /EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION/ OCCURRING WELL NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. WITH SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER /MORE STABLE/
AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM MONDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGE...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...WILL WEAKEN
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS AWAY TO THE NE...RESULTING IN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW MONDAY AFT/EVE. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE WEST (KINT/KGSO)...EXPECT BKN TO OVC HIGH
CLOUDS...WITH A FEW LOWER CLOUDS IN THE 3500 TO 5000 FT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THOUGH SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE FAR
WEST TERMINALS MONDAY AFT/EVE...CHANCES ARE NOT VERY HIGH AND
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED...THUS WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THIS
TAF ISSUANCE. -KC
LOOKING AHEAD: WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. THEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION...RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. -KRD
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...NP/DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...KC/KRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
737 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NUDGED POPS AND SKY COVER BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS WE HAVE
NOT SEEN A MUCH SIGNS OF CU BREAKING THE CAP. MEANWHILE...FRONT
LOOMS TO OUR WEST WITH CONVECTION STILL FIRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NRN KY. HAVE LINEARLY EXTRAPOLATED THIS ACTIVITY INTO
OUR FAR WEST CWA BY ABOUT THE 05Z-06Z TIME FRAME AS WAVE LOCATED
ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP CONVECTION FIRING. THIS AGREES FAIRLY
WELL WITH SOLUTIONS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE DEPICTING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW
OVER NOAM...LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE MAIN DIGGING SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL CARVE OUT THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT...STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL END THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER
ALONG WITH THE STORMS. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY WITH THE AID OF UPSLOPE...LOOK FOR A MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LATER THURSDAY AND ON INTO
THE 4TH OF JULY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WILL REACH TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH LOW HUMIDITIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
80S UNDER SUNSHINE. BY SUNDAY A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES AGAIN...AND A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WITH ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEAT...HUMIDITY...AND A
CHANCE OF STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAVE
WILL TRACK ACROSS LATER TONIGHT. LATEST SAT AND RADAR DATA DEPICT
A WELL DEFINED LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE OHIO RIVER JUST AHEAD
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LINE WILL REACH KHTS BY ABOUT 05Z...WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESSION CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY. MAIN FRONT WILL BE SLOW IN CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ABLE TO FIRE THROUGH TUESDAY
INVOF OF THE BOUNDARY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING
AND TUESDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 07/02/14
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H M L M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/LS
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
657 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE
IN BY FRIDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES. CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN LAKES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
BUT EXPECT A LOT OF WEAKENING BEFORE IT APPROACHES. SMALL POPS
FINE FOR NOW.
PREVIOUS...MAIN QUESTION OVERNIGHT IS WHETHER CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD EAST AND AFFECT NORTH OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE SSEO AND MORE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION BUT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS IT APPROACHES NW OHIO. DIURNAL TIMING DOES NOT
FAVOR THE PERSISTENCE OF THE CONVECTION BUT WE WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
ESPECIALLY NEAR TOL. ELSEWHERE A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AND POPS HAVE BEEN SET TO NEAR 15 PERCENT.
RATHER HIGH DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
FORECAST PREDICTION OF A LOW FROM 70 TO 75.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE REPLACED WITH MORE SEASONAL
WEATHER BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE WILL BE RATHER ELEVATED AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL AID IN PRODUCING ROTATING STORMS.
VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM 18-20C WOULD SUGGEST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 90 BUT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY
PREVENT MAX HEATING SO WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST WITH THE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LINGERING CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY EVENING.
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST
AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED BUT TIMING THE SMALL
SCALE FEATURES ARE DIFFICULT.
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXTENDED. MODELS CONTINUE
TO FORECAST LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ENTIRE WEEKEND SHOULD BE
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON
MONDAY AS ECMWF MOVES THE RIDGE EAST AND ANOTHER FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND MAINTAINS THE RIDGE
THROUGH MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL SPIT THE DIFFERENCE AND LEAN TOWARD
CONTINUITY AND GO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT TO BKN CU FIELD AT 2500-3500 FT OR HIGHER WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MARGINAL
CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
THERE IS ONLY A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THE TAFS. A NEW BAND OF CONVECTION
WITH MAY BE MOVING NEAR TOL BY 12Z TUE. BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EAST HALF TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SSW WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE...THEN TURN TO THE WEST
TUESDAY AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVES ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME CHOPPY ON THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE LAKE WED TURNING THE WINDS NW BUT WIND
SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS AS THE
WEATHER SYSTEMS WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE FRI TO
CALM THE WINDS FOR FRI NIGHT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
433 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE DECAYING MCS THAT TRAVELED SOUTHEAST
THROUGH INDIANA IS A SMALL PATCH OF SHOWERS IN BUTLER COUNTY.
BEHIND WHERE THIS ACTIVITY PASSED...THE AIR MASS IS QUITE
STABLE...WITH A NEAR-COMPLETE LACK OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE
SHADOW OF THE FORMER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME UNSTABLE...BUT THE CUMULUS FIELD HAS
REMAINED RATHER FLAT. WITH NOTHING IN THE WAY OF WELL-DEFINED
FORCING OVER THE REGION...THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY HAS
BEEN KEPT DRY. AT WORST...IT SEEMS LIKE PERHAPS A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WITH LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED COVERAGE.
OF GREATER CONCERN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FROM INDIANA. AN
INTENSE MCS HAS DEVELOPED IN IOWA...AND THERE IS LITTLE TO IMPEDE
ITS RAPID PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND EVENTUALLY INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
WRF-ARW...DEPICT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ON A WEAKENING TREND
AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH INDIANA...PAST THE EDGE OF THE SPC MDT
RISK AREA. WESTERLY SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN
WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE MCS...AND THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LOSE ITS FOCUS. WHAT PROVIDES SOME CONCERN IS
THAT THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL RETAIN ITS INSTABILITY HEADING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
CONDITIONAL THREAT OF STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS MAKING IT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA SOME TIME AFTER 06Z.
THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
FAIRLY HIGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN WARM MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT SHOULD FIRST BE NOTED THAT THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST MAY
END UP CONTINGENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TO THE MCS MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS MAY LEAD TO A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN
THE DAY (IF IT WEAKENS AS FORECAST)...OR A STABILIZATION TO
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA (IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER).
THOUGH THESE SCENARIOS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THE FORECAST IS BEING
ASSEMBLED WITH THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE MONDAY NIGHT MCS WILL NOT
HAVE A LARGE DIRECT IMPACT ON TUESDAY CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM
MONDAY NIGHT TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THERE
IS ALSO A GRADIENT IN THETA-E WITH SOME DEPTH THROUGH THE LOWEST
FEW KILOMETERS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. WITH EXPECTATIONS
OF MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...A
HEAT ADVISORY (HEAT INDEX OVER 100 DEGREES) WAS REQUIRED FOR A FEW
COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAPPING. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG APPEAR
POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR. VALUES AS
HIGH AS 5000 J/KG WERE FORECAST ON THE NAM12...BUT THIS APPEARS TO
BE BASED ON AN ERRONEOUS UPPER-70S DEWPOINT FORECAST. SHEAR WILL
STILL BE MARGINAL...THOUGH INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (GETTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS FROM 0-6KM). THIS IS
CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING POSSIBLE. THE SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK COVERS THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT THE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL FOR
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WHICH SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED
BY STABILIZATION FROM ANYTHING THAT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL HAVE THE MOST INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE TIMING TO WORK WITH. ALTHOUGH THESE PARAMETERS
APPEAR FAVORABLE...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE (BOTH TRADITIONAL AND CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING) DOES NOT
GENERATE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD STORMS OR QPF...WHICH RAISES A
FEW QUESTIONS ABOUT EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BRINGS IN A LITTLE MORE A GRADIENT FOR
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS BOTH CONVECTION AND
THE WEAK FRONT MAKE THEIR WAY NW-TO-SE ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. WEAK SFC BOUNDARY NEAR OUR SE CWFA WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. DESPITE SOME EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE FLOW
ALOFT...LOW LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HAVE RELEGATED THE THUNDER THREAT ALONG AND SE OF I-71 WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST FOR THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NW TO THE MID 80S SE.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WEAK LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND SOME POST
FRONTAL SHALLOW INSTABILITY WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GOING.
THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ENDS BY THURSDAY EVENING AS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THIN. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 70S.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PUSH INTO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO SETTLE SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON ITS BACK SIDE. ITS LOOKING
LIKE A DELIGHTFUL FOURTH OF JULY IF YOU LIKE LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
UPR LVL FLOW BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LONG RANGE MODELS AS TO
HOW FAST WEAK ENERGY IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST
AND ALLOWS FOR A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MORE SUMMER TIME
TEMPERATURES. WILL TRY TO KEEP SUNDAY DRY AND THEN ALLOW FOR CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED WEAK ENERGY MAY
AFFECT US BY THEN.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRATOCU UNDERNEATH AN INCREASING CI SHIELD HAVE NOT BEEN MIXED
OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED...AT LEAST NOT AS RAPIDLY.
THE WEAK BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IN CENTRAL INDIANA
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD ONLY BRIEFLY AFFECT KCVG/KLUK.
A CORE OF THE LEADING EDGE IS BEING PUSHED OUT OF THE MEAN SSEWD
PROPAGATION AND IS HEADING TOWARDS KCVG. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TAF SITES AND AMEND IF NECESSARY.
SC UNDER CI WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON. CI SHIELD WILL
EXIT TO THE ENE OVERNIGHT AND SCT250 TO MAYBE CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TOWARDS DAYBREAK. DAYTIME HEATING WILL POP SOME CU
TOMORROW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME A
BIT MORE ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 18-0Z TIME
FRAME TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ081-082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ098>100.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
348 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE
IN BY FRIDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MAIN QUESTION OVERNIGHT IS WHETHER CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD EAST AND AFFECT NORTH OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE SSEO AND MORE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION BUT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS IT APPROACHES NW OHIO. DIURNAL TIMING DOES NOT
FAVOR THE PERSISTENCE OF THE CONVECTION BUT WE WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
ESPECIALLY NEAR TOL. ELSEWHERE A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AND POPS HAVE BEEN SET TO NEAR 15 PERCENT.
RATHER HIGH DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
FORECAST PREDICTION OF A LOW FROM 70 TO 75.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE REPLACED WITH MORE SEASONAL
WEATHER BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE WILL BE RATHER ELEVATED AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL AID IN PRODUCING ROTATING STORMS.
VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM 18-20C WOULD SUGGEST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 90 BUT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY
PREVENT MAX HEATING SO WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST WITH THE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LINGERING CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY EVENING.
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST
AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED BUT TIMING THE SMALL
SCALE FEATURES ARE DIFFICULT.
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXTENDED. MODELS CONTINUE
TO FORECAST LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ENTIRE WEEKEND SHOULD BE
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON
MONDAY AS ECMWF MOVES THE RIDGE EAST AND ANOTHER FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND MAINTAINS THE RIDGE
THROUGH MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL SPIT THE DIFFERENCE AND LEAN TOWARD
CONTINUITY AND GO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT TO BKN CU FIELD AT 2500-3500 FT OR HIGHER WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MARGINAL
CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
THERE IS ONLY A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THE TAFS. A NEW BAND OF CONVECTION
WITH MAY BE MOVING NEAR TOL BY 12Z TUE. BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EAST HALF TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SSW WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE...THEN TURN TO THE WEST
TUESDAY AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVES ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME CHOPPY ON THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE LAKE WED TURNING THE WINDS NW BUT WIND
SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS AS THE
WEATHER SYSTEMS WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE FRI TO
CALM THE WINDS FOR FRI NIGHT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW...
OLD MCV FROM THIS AFTERNOON ALMOST DISCERN ABLE ACROSS KY OTHER
THAN SOME MID AND HI DECK. MUCH OF THE REGION IS PRECIP FREE AND
EXPECT THIS TO HOLD INTO MORNING HOURS FOR MOST PART...BUT FELT
PRUDENT TO LEAVE ISOLATED WORDING IN WX GRIDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE N MOUNTAINS WHERE HI RES MODELS TRY TO FIRE SOME SHRA IN THE
PREDAWN BL COOLING. ANY MORNING LOW STRATUS/FG WILL LIFT INTO CU FIELD IN
MOISTURE LADEN ATMOSPHERE. SUBTLE RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL DAMPEN
OUT AS AXIS CROSSES TODAY...WITH DRYING IN MID LEVELS ARRIVING
FROM THE W AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA
TO DEVELOP BEFORE THIS OCCURS ACROSS MAINLY WV/SW VA ZONES. TRIED
TO DRY OUT MOST AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A DRY BUT MUGGY
NIGHT TONIGHT.
FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS FAIRLY CLOSE GIVEN ITS
BETTER VERIFICATION OVER PAST WEEK. THIS ESSENTIALLY RESULTED IN
READINGS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SAME REASONING FOR TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY UPPER 60S FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING 850 MB TEMPERATURES HITTING 21/22 C ON TUESDAY. THIS
COULD PROVIDE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR. THIS ALSO
CREATES A VERY UNSTABLE SOUNDING WITH A BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. DRY AIR CAP SHOULD HOLD BACK ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE
BOUNDARY ARRIVES. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM...SEVERE WEATHER
IS A POSSIBILITY.
MODELS SHOWING MUCH MORE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SO
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
MOISTURE GRADUALLY PULLS EASTWARD ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FCST SHIFTED JUST ABOUT AN ENTIRE DAY FORWARD BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND
12Z SUN MODELS RUNS /THREE MAJOR CYCLES/. STILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDER THU WITH SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR HANGING ON AS THE FRONT MIXES
THROUGH.
OTHERWISE MODELS SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS TROUGHING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN
THE E. THIS ALLOWS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA...WITH A FRESHER AIR MASS. GFS DOES SHOW MOISTURE
CLOSE BY TO THE S AND E NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THAT IS TANGENTIALLY
IF AT ALL RELATED TO THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING OFFSHORE THEN.
BLENDED IN WPC FOR HIGHS THU AND GFS-BASED MOS FOR LOWS THU NT...A
BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS IN BOTH CASES WITH THE SLOWER TIMING ON THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BLENDED IN ECMWF DATA FOR MOST OF THE REMAINING
HIGHS AND LOWS WITH THE COOLEST WEATHER NOW PUSHED BACK TO FRI AND
FRI NT...NOT FAR FROM WPC GUIDANCE. THE EXTENDED FCST IS CLOSEST TO
THE ECMWFHIRES SOLN FROM WPC AND LOCALLY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY FG OR STRATUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT WITH SUNRISE. ELECTED TO HOLD
A BIT LONGER ALONG OH RIVER AND INTO SE OH...TO AFFECT KHTS/KPKB
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. LINGERING RIPPLE IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY ALONG AND E
OF I79 CORRIDOR...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH STRATUS FOR
KHTS/KPKB THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1031 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASING BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE SC
COASTLINE MID TO LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
FRIDAY...SWEEPING ARTHUR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...FEW CHANGES EXCEPT FOR MINOR REVISIONS TO THE
OVERNIGHT SKY TRENDS AND TEMPS...THE LATTER INCORPORATING VALUES
FROM OUR SHORT-TERM MODEL CONSENSUS PRODUCT. DID INCREASE SKY COVER
SLIGHTLY IN THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE DEBRIS
FROM THE MCS MOVING THRU THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THIS MCS IS DIMINISHING
IN ORGANIZATION AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH STEAM TO AFFECT
OUR CWFA. AS SPC NOTED IN MCD 1250 ABOUT AN HOUR AGO...IT IS MOVING
INTO A MORE STABLE AREA AND AWAY FROM THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT. THE
00Z HRRR DOES DEVELOP A LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE MCS WHICH
MAKES A RUN AT THE SRN NC MTNS...BUT IT FADES UPON REACHING THEM.
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG RIDGES IN EAST TN. NOT SURE
IF THESE ARE WHAT THE HRRR IS RESOLVING BUT AT THIS TIME A DRY
OVERNIGHT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD IN LIGHT OF OTHER GUID.
730 PM UPDATE...DROPPED POPS THIS EVENING AS THE CU FIELD HAS MOSTLY
DWINDLED...WITH THE MESO MODELS THAT PRODUCE PRECIP STILL HAVING
FAILED TO VERIFY. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LLVL CONVERGENCE AND
MODEST MOISTURE IN THE SAME LAYER OVER THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
TONIGHT AND SOME OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS DEVELOP SHOWERS DUE TO
THESE CONDITIONS AND LINGERING INSTABILITY. ESP GIVEN THE POOR
PERFORMANCE THIS AFTN...IT DOES NOT SEEM PLAUSIBLE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
OVERNIGHT POPS IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME.
FOR TOMORROW...EXPECTATIONS ARE LARGELY THE SAME WITH UPWARDS OF
3000 J/KG SBCAPE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN PER 15Z SREF AND 18Z
NAM/GFS...WITH WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AS OUTLINED BY DAY SHIFT BELOW.
REVISED POP TRENDS MOSTLY TO BETTER HIGHLIGHT PROPAGATION FROM THE
MTNS TO THE PIEDMONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
AS OF 220 PM EDT TUESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD
IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A RATHER POTENT POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE
PARENT SURFACE LOW WHICH IS CURRENT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO.
EXPECTING THIS ENTIRE COMPLEX TO SLIDE EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE OHIO TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER UNEVENTFUL
OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN AND AROUND
THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER ACTIVE AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH A PREFRONTAL LEE TROF
DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AND THE
SURFACE RIDGE ERODES...SO WILL ANY INHIBITION TO CONVECTION.
GUIDANCE HAS COME TO A CONSENSUS REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BOTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW PLOTS INDICATE A POTENT WARM
SECTOR AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH 6-8 DEGREE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES YIELDING SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY...UPWARDS OF 3000J/KG ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT REGIONS OF NC AND SC. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
RATHER WEAK WHICH COULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY THAT WILL BE PRESENT
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DEEP UPDRAFTS LEADING TO LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THUS...WILL KEEP PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION IN HWO FOR THE ENTIRE REGION ON WEDNESDAY MENTIONING THE
ABOVE THREATS. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE LOW/MID
90S ACROSS THE LOW TERRAIN WITH MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS
PUSHING THE MID/UPPER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUE...AN UPPER TROF AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THU
THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRI. THE TROF WILL PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
INTO THE AREA THU THEN EAST OF THE AREA FRI. THIS TROF WILL ALSO
KEEP ARTHUR WELL EAST OF OUR CWFA NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE RESULTANT EXPECTED WEATHER...ESPECIALLY ON THU.
SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS MUCH OF THE AREA DRY WITH BEST INSTABILITY AND
PRECIP CHANCES NEAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR...WHILE OTHERS SHOW GOOD
INSTABILITY OVER ALL BUT THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND SWRN NC
MTNS. GUIDANCE BLEND FAVORS THE WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE SCENARIO...
SO HAVE GONE THAT DIRECTION FOR POP. CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE STORMS AS GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MID
LEVEL DRY AIR AND HIGH CAPE VALUES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE.
HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO BE OVER THE ERN CWFA. LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WED NITE AND NEAR NORMAL THU.
WITH THE TROF AXIS AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
FRI...DRY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. EVEN THO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH...LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS
MID LEVELS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...EXPECT A DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUE...FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES EXPANDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL KEEP POPS BELOW CLIMO AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE EDGE OF THE HIGH. PROFILES WILL MOISTEN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
TRIGGERS A SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW...SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES. WITH AN OTHERWISE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IN
PLACE AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...POPS WILL
FOLLOW A NORMAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL TREND EARLY IN THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...MODERATING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR TONIGHT. GUIDANCE GENERALLY OVERDID CLOUD COVER DURING
THE AFTN TUE...SO TAF FAVORS THE CLEARER END OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM.
PERSISTENT LLVL MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE COULD PRODUCE SCT
STRATOCU OVERNIGHT. PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG AT DAYBREAK.
SWLY WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE AGAIN VEERING
SLIGHTLY IN LEE TROUGH WED. SCT TSRA EXPCD TO BREAK OUT ACRS THE
PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTN IN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE CHANCE WARRANTS A PROB30 MENTION. SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND/OR HAIL MAY DEVELOP WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.
ELSEWHERE...AS AT KCLT THE MAIN CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ARE VFR
STRATOCU WHICH MAY FORM A CIG AT TIMES. MTN VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO
FOG UP AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK...THOUGH WITH NO RAIN HAVING FALLEN
TUE...KEPT KAVL MVFR AT WORST. TSRA CHANCES ARE BEST IN THE
MTNS/FOOTHILLS SO KAVL/KHKY HAVE A PROB30 BEGINNING MID-AFTN.
KGSP/KGMU HAVE A SOMEWHAT LOWER CHANCE SO VCTS THERE. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOUTHERLY...EXCEPT CALM FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT AND
BRIEFLY CHANNELED NWLY WED MRNG AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. LIGHT
EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS FROM LOW STRATUS OR FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT SOME SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VISIN
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...VISIN
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
141 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN
HIGH AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLOODING EVENTS THIS EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON
MONDAY WITH A TREND BACK TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 130 AM EDT MONDAY...FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE AS T/TDS REMAIN
RATHER STEADY STATE WITH CALM WINDS AND PLENTY OF CI OVERHEAD. MADE
DOWNWARD ADJS TO THE POP GRIDS...ESP ERN HALF...AND LEFT LOW END
CHANCE ACROSS THE SW NC MTNS AND NE GA TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAKENING
SHRA/TSTMS REACHING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HRS.
AT 1030 PM EDT SUNDAY... CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AND TRAILING AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN ARE DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE INTO EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. ACCORDINGLY... POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A BIT IN THE EAST
AND DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE WEST. NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END BY 2 AM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
AT 730 PM... NARROW LINE OF CONVECTIVE RAIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CWA HAS LEFT BEHIND AREAS OF RAIN IN THE WEST. RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE THE PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST IS ON THE WANE... BUT
CONVECTIVE LINE IS MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN CWA. THE
CAPE... LI... AND K INDEX ALL SHOW A TIGHT DECREASING GRADIENT OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES. EXPECT THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THAT AREA. EARLY EVENING UPDATE HOLDS ON TO HIGH POPS IN
THE WEST TAILING OFF TOWARD THE EAST. WILL MONITOR WITH INTENTION OF
INCREASING POPS IN THE EAST IF EXPECTED DISSIPATION DOES NOT OCCUR.
AT 630 PM EDT SUNDAY... PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED WEATHER AND POPS STILL
APPLY BUT POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED OVER WESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR
EXPANSIVE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FOLLOWING CONVECTIVE STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS.
AT 430 PM EDT SUNDAY... FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVECTIVE STORMS
AND ASSOCIATED AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WERE MOVING INTO TO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS FEEDING ON CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG IN A
TONGUE OF HIGH ENERGY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO WESTERN
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. HRRR HAS A
REASONABLE... BUT FAR FROM EXACT... DEPICTION OF THE CONVECTION. THE
HRRR TREND FITS THE FORECAST CAPE FIELD WHICH FOLLOWS A TYPICAL
DIURNAL DOWNWARD TREND AROUND SUNSET AND DURING THE SUBSEQUENT
HOURS. WILL LOWER POPS ACCORDINGLY DURING THE EVENING. HMT-SOUTHEAST
PROFILERS IN THE FOOTHILLS INDICATE A VERY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE BUT LIGHT WINDS BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE TERRAIN
ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 3K FEET. CAPE VALUES REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER
EASTERN ZONES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OTHER THAN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...LEADING TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING..CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK...AND MOVING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST. A
SURFACE LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH OFF THE FL COAST IS BEING
MONITORED BY NHC FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS...PRESENTING
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY
PRESENT...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED OF GREAT CONCERN. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE. DAYBREAK FOG WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...
AND RAIN SOAKED AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
INSTABILITY IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY GREATER ON MONDAY...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...STEERING FLOW REMAINS WEAK...AND HEAVY RAIN STILL
REMAINS A CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING CONVECTION PROVOKED BY THE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE. DESPITE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF
THE UPPER RIDGE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER AS
THE AIR MASS MODIFIES AND SW FLOW ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY. FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A S/W WILL BE CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE HAVING
THE OPPORTUNITY TO INTERCEPT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT DID NOT HAVE THE ATMOSPHERE WORKED OVER DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. WE WILL THEN ALLOW POPS TO LOWER DURING THE
WEE HOURS MONDAY/PREDAWN TUESDAY...AS THE S/W PASSES BY AND
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.
ON TUESDAY WE ARE CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF DUAL AMPLIFYING TROFS TO
OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST...AND THE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. IT APPEARS WE MAY BE IN A CONVECTIVE LULL WITH INHIBITION
NOTED ON VARIOUS SOUNDINGS...EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE HAVE
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ALBEIT A TAD HIGHER IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE SOME MINOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED...AND
SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS. H85 THERMAL PATTERN SUGGESTS TEMPS ON
THE WAY UP TUESDAY...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NEARLY ALL GUIDE
TEMPERATURE PACKAGES.
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION TUESDAY EVENING WILL END WITH LOSS OF
HEATING FOLLOWED BY FAIR SKIES.
A BIT MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY WITH LESS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...
CONSIDERABLE "FAT" LOOKING CAPE...AND SOME WEAK BOUNDARY DRIFTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE HAVE EDGED POPS UPWARD INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH A VERY WARM AND JUICY AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE.
MEANWHILE...APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 95 TO 100 DEGREES...IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC/UPSTATE
SC AND PARTS OF NE GEORGIA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT STILL VERY GOOD ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE. A SLOW-MOVING TROF AXIS SHUD ENTER THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY...THEN GRADUALLY CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND EAST COAST FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. THIS TROF IS
EXPECTED TO PICK UP A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (WHICH MAY BE A TROPICAL
STORM OR HURRICANE BY THEN)...FROM THE FL ATLANTIC COAST REGION. THE
LATEST NHC FCST IS CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WITH A LIKELY TROPICAL
STORM LIFTING NE JUST OFFSHORE...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. SO AT THIS
TIME...STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT IMPACT FROM THAT SYSTEM. AS
FOR THE FRONT ITSELF...GUIDANCE SHOWS ENHANCED CAPE IN THE WARM
SECTOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BNDRY...WITH DECENT QPF RESPONSE.
TAKING A BLEND OF WPC GRIDS AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS...POPS WERE
BUMPED UP TO HIGH-END CHC TO LOW-LIKELY FOR THURSDAY ACRS PRETTY
MUCH THE ENTIRE CWFA.
SOME DRIER AIR AND FALLING THICKNESSES SHUD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO BELOW NORMAL
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...NOT ANTICIPATING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME ISOL
LIFR HAS MAD IT INTO THE UPSTATE...BUT HAVE SEEN NOTHING ON THE FOG
PRODUCT OR GUIDANCE TO INDICATE A SPREAD TO THE EAST. A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CI SHOULD HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TDD/S ARE ARND
5 F CURRENTLY. SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS PROBABLE IN A
DESTABILIZING SW/LY FLOW...SO A PROB30 TSTM WILL BEGIN AFTER 18Z.
ELSEWHERE...LIFR CIGS ARE NOTED AT KAVL AND GMU. BELIEVE KAVL WILL
BE SOCKED IN PRETTY MUCH ALL NIGHT WITH CALM CONDS. KGMU IS MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH SURROUNDING STCU NOT DEFINED ON SAT NOR SURROUNDING
OBS. ALL SITES WILL GET A TEMPO MVFR CIG OR VSBY AFT 08Z/09Z THROUGH
DAYBREAK. A WEAK BNDRY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH VORT ENERGY
CROSSING OVERHEAD IS ENUF TO INCLUDE A PROB30 TSTM ALL SITES AFTER
18Z OR SO.
OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH MORNING CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 91% HIGH 93% LOW 57% LOW 57%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 86% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...LGL/SBK
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1042 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE FOR INCOMING WEAKING CONVECTION. OUTFLOW
FROM STORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP STORMS. LATEST HRRR MODEL NOW
SHOWS SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION GETTING INTO EAST TENNESSEE AND
POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE...BUT 800-700MB CAP REMAINS...SO DO NOT
EXPECTED MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 94 69 86 / 30 20 30 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 93 67 84 / 20 30 30 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 71 92 67 84 / 30 30 30 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 90 63 82 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
934 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
AN EAST/WEST ORIENTED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS
GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT MOVED
SLOWLY SOUTH. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN WAS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN MEMPHIS METRO AT 9 PM... AND EXTENDED EAST TO SAVANNAH
TN. EXPECT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO LOWER TEMPS A BIT...MAINLY NORTH
OF I40.
PWB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH MISSOURI AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
NOW STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 3500 J/KG AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM...AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 30 KTS...MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS FOR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES
THROUGH 03Z FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST STORM POTENTIAL REMAINING SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. A FEW STORMS MAY AGAIN APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AS STRONG INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL
SHEAR PERSISTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. ONCE AGAIN...THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH RAIN FREE WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REDEVELOPS OVER THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY NEXT MONDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
PRIMARY CONCERN IS LINE OF TSRA EXTENDING NORTH OF JBR TO
PAH...MOVING ESE AT 35 KTS. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS LINE WAS VERY
UNSTABLE... BUT CAPPED WITH RESPECT TO DEEP CONVECTION ROOTED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
NAM AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE THE COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE TSRA COMPLEX TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH 06Z.
THIS APPEARS REASONABLE...GIVEN BOUNDARY GRADUALLY STABILIZATION
AND THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG FRONTAL PUSH. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEAK POST FRONTAL PRESSURE FALLS OVER CENTRAL MO...SUGGESTING
FRONTAL PUSH MAY STALL OR AT LEAST RELAX THIS EVENING. MAIN DRIVER
AND SUSTAINER OF TSRA IN THE SHORT TERM MAY BE AN EFFECTIVE FRONT
IN THE FORM OF COOL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. THIS MAY DRIVE TSRA TO THE
MEM VCNTY TOWARD 03Z.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
942 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG. MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
A LARGE OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THIS EVENINGS BNA SOUNDING SHOWS A FAIRLY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LATEST HRRR MODEL CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL DEFINITELY MONITOR
AS CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS LOOK GOOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 94 69 86 / 10 20 30 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 93 67 84 / 10 30 30 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 71 92 67 84 / 10 30 30 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 90 63 82 / 10 30 30 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
647 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH MISSOURI AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
NOW STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 3500 J/KG AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM...AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 30 KTS...MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS FOR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES
THROUGH 03Z FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST STORM POTENTIAL REMAINING SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. A FEW STORMS MAY AGAIN APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AS STRONG INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL
SHEAR PERSISTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. ONCE AGAIN...THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH RAIN FREE WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REDEVELOPS OVER THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY NEXT MONDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
PRIMARY CONCERN IS LINE OF TSRA EXTENDING NORTH OF JBR TO
PAH...MOVING ESE AT 35 KTS. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS LINE WAS VERY
UNSTABLE... BUT CAPPED WITH RESPECT TO DEEP CONVECTION ROOTED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
NAM AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE THE COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE TSRA COMPLEX TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH 06Z.
THIS APPEARS REASONABLE...GIVEN BOUNDARY GRADUALLY STABILIZATION
AND THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG FRONTAL PUSH. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEAK POST FRONTAL PRESSURE FALLS OVER CENTRAL MO...SUGGESTING
FRONTAL PUSH MAY STALL OR AT LEAST RELAX THIS EVENING. MAIN DRIVER
AND SUSTAINER OF TSRA IN THE SHORT TERM MAY BE AN EFFECTIVE FRONT
IN THE FORM OF COOL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. THIS MAY DRIVE TSRA TO THE
MEM VCNTY TOWARD 03Z.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1229 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014/
UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ALTHOUGH SOME
THIN STRATUS IS PROBABLY HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN WHAT THEY COULD BE. ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE IS
RESULTING IN HIGH HUMIDITY...AND ENHANCED HEAT INDICES.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014/
CURRENTLY...A WEAK LEFTOVER BOUNDARY STRETCHES NW/SE ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. THE HRRR HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION INVOF THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT BUT THE 850 MB FLOW OF
15-20 KTS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY CONVECTION
WEST OF THE TN RIVER. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE WEST TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY NEAR THE TN RIVER. VERY MOIST AND WARM ACROSS THE
DELTA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S.
TODAY...WILL LEAVE A SMALL POPS ALONG THE TN RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING TO COVER ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. THE BIG STORY TODAY IS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASINGLY HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH TODAY DUE
TO ALL THE RECENT RAINS. THE 00Z NAM IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE
WITH 925 MB TEMPS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO BACKED OFF HIGHS ABOUT A
DEGREE. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT RAIN WILL MAKE
UP FOR IT AS DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S THIS MORNING
BEFORE MIXING OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL HIT
100F BY ABOUT NOON.
TONIGHT...WARM AND MUGGY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER PUSHING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 100S WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AN UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
PERHAPS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE AND A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...00Z MODELS INDICATE THE
GREAT LAKES TROF WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER AND EXTEND A LITTLE
FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES BY WEDNESDAY WHICH HELPS DRIVE
THE FRONT THROUGH MORE QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL MOVE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED
THE REGION. MODELS ARE INDICATING A GOOD DEAL OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK AT THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE UPPER TROF. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LOWS IN THE
60S. MAY EVEN SEE SOME 50S IN THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS. TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS AT KJBR SHOULD END SOON OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1026 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ALTHOUGH SOME
THIN STRATUS IS PROBABLY HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN WHAT THEY COULD BE. ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE IS
RESULTING IN HIGH HUMIDITY...AND ENHANCED HEAT INDICES.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014/
CURRENTLY...A WEAK LEFTOVER BOUNDARY STRETCHES NW/SE ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. THE HRRR HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION INVOF THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT BUT THE 850 MB FLOW OF
15-20 KTS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY CONVECTION
WEST OF THE TN RIVER. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE WEST TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY NEAR THE TN RIVER. VERY MOIST AND WARM ACROSS THE
DELTA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S.
TODAY...WILL LEAVE A SMALL POPS ALONG THE TN RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING TO COVER ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. THE BIG STORY TODAY IS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASINGLY HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH TODAY DUE
TO ALL THE RECENT RAINS. THE 00Z NAM IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE
WITH 925 MB TEMPS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO BACKED OFF HIGHS ABOUT A
DEGREE. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT RAIN WILL MAKE
UP FOR IT AS DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S THIS MORNING
BEFORE MIXING OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL HIT
100F BY ABOUT NOON.
TONIGHT...WARM AND MUGGY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER PUSHING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 100S WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AN UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
PERHAPS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE AND A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...00Z MODELS INDICATE THE
GREAT LAKES TROF WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER AND EXTEND A LITTLE
FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES BY WEDNESDAY WHICH HELPS DRIVE
THE FRONT THROUGH MORE QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL MOVE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED
THE REGION. MODELS ARE INDICATING A GOOD DEAL OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK AT THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE UPPER TROF. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LOWS IN THE
60S. MAY EVEN SEE SOME 50S IN THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS. TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AT
MEM..JBR AND MKL. WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST IN THE 16-22 KT
RANGE DEPENDING ON SITE. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
621 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A WEAK LEFTOVER BOUNDARY STRETCHES NW/SE ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. THE HRRR HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION INVOF THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT BUT THE 850 MB FLOW OF
15-20 KTS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY CONVECTION
WEST OF THE TN RIVER. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE WEST TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY NEAR THE TN RIVER. VERY MOIST AND WARM ACROSS THE
DELTA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S.
TODAY...WILL LEAVE A SMALL POPS ALONG THE TN RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING TO COVER ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. THE BIG STORY TODAY IS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASINGLY HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH TODAY DUE
TO ALL THE RECENT RAINS. THE 00Z NAM IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE
WITH 925 MB TEMPS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO BACKED OFF HIGHS ABOUT A
DEGREE. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT RAIN WILL MAKE
UP FOR IT AS DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S THIS MORNING
BEFORE MIXING OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL HIT
100F BY ABOUT NOON.
TONIGHT...WARM AND MUGGY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER PUSHING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 100S WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AN UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
PERHAPS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE AND A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...00Z MODELS INDICATE THE
GREAT LAKES TROF WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER AND EXTEND A LITTLE
FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES BY WEDNESDAY WHICH HELPS DRIVE
THE FRONT THROUGH MORE QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL MOVE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED
THE REGION. MODELS ARE INDICATING A GOOD DEAL OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK AT THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE UPPER TROF. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LOWS IN THE
60S. MAY EVEN SEE SOME 50S IN THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS. TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AT
MEM..JBR AND MKL. WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST IN THE 16-22 KT
RANGE DEPENDING ON SITE. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
307 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A WEAK LEFTOVER BOUNDARY STRETCHES NW/SE ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. THE HRRR HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION INVOF THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT BUT THE 850 MB FLOW OF
15-20 KTS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY CONVECTION
WEST OF THE TN RIVER. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE WEST TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY NEAR THE TN RIVER. VERY MOIST AND WARM ACROSS THE
DELTA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S.
TODAY...WILL LEAVE A SMALL POPS ALONG THE TN RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING TO COVER ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. THE BIG STORY TODAY IS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASINGLY HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH TODAY DUE
TO ALL THE RECENT RAINS. THE 00Z NAM IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE
WITH 925 MB TEMPS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO BACKED OFF HIGHS ABOUT A
DEGREE. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT RAIN WILL MAKE
UP FOR IT AS DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S THIS MORNING
BEFORE MIXING OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL HIT
100F BY ABOUT NOON.
TONIGHT...WARM AND MUGGY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER PUSHING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 100S WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AN UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
PERHAPS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE AND A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...00Z MODELS INDICATE THE
GREAT LAKES TROF WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER AND EXTEND A LITTLE
FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES BY WEDNESDAY WHICH HELPS DRIVE
THE FRONT THROUGH MORE QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL MOVE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED
THE REGION. MODELS ARE INDICATING A GOOD DEAL OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK AT THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE UPPER TROF. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LOWS IN THE
60S. MAY EVEN SEE SOME 50S IN THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS. TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT REMAINS LOW LEVEL STRATUS
FORMATION POTENTIAL. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
VSBY PREVAILING MVFR OR BETTER...WHILE MIDLEVEL DECK NEAR MKL DOWN
TO TUP SHOULD REDUCE FOG FORMATION POTENTIAL. THIS MIDLEVEL DECK
WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN EAST
OF MEM OVERNIGHT.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
912 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS WANED AND AM EXPECTING THE FEW REMAINING SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. COVERAGE WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN
FCST WITH SOME 2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS OVER PARTS OF HARRIS COUNTY
AND EVEN SOME PEA SIZE HAIL NEAR ELDRIDGE PKWY AND HWY 290. PW
VALUES ROSE TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES AROUND 21Z AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 90S WERE REACHED DURING THE AFTN. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH UPPER
WINDS AT CRP OUT OF THE NE. WINDS AT LCH WERE SW IN RESPONSE TO A
MID LATITUDE TROUGH PUSHING EAST. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WERE DIVERGENT
OVER SE TX AND THIS COUPLED WITH MODEST MSTR WAS ENOUGH TO GET
CONVECTION GOING LATE THIS AFTN.
AT 00Z...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH A
WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SE OK TO KSPS TO AN AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE BIG BEND. AT 850 MB...A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS NOTED
ALONG THE RED RIVER WITH A CORRIDOR OF DEEPER MSTR FROM NORTH
TEXAS TO THE DELMARVA AREA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NOTED OVER SE
TX WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING EAST.
THE UPPER FEATURES DON`T CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO
STILL EXPECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON WEDNESDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH MSTR WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT THE 18Z NAM AND GFS ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH MSTR WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO 1.83 INCHES
(GFS). THE HI RES ARW IS AGGRESSIVE WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
OVER EAST TEXAS AND THEN MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE HOUSTON AREA
DURING THE EVENING. THIS SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z GFS. THE
TEXAS TECH 3 KM WRF AND HRRR DID A GREAT JOB WITH TODAYS
CONVECTION BUT THE WRF HAS NOT COME IN AND THE HRRR DOES NOT GO
OUT FAR ENOUGH TO BE MUCH HELP. WILL AWAIT 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE
MAKING CHANGES BUT POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE A BIT HIGHER TOMORROW...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS FOR TONIGHT...DEW
PTS ARE VERY HIGH SO RAISED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO NEAR THE
COAST AND TWEAKED SKY GRIDS. WILL SEND OUT NEW ZONES ONCE THE
CONVECTION OVER GRIMES COUNTY DISSIPATES. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN DOWNTOWN HOUSTON...HEMPSTEAD...AND CONROE. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS MOSTLY OCCURRED TO THE WEST OF THE IAH AND CXO
TERMINALS AND WILL DIE DOWN AROUND SUNSET.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE SUNRISE AT MANY
OF THE TERMINALS.
ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER I DID NOT MENTION PCPN IN THE TAFS
BECAUSE MOST FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 44
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
VERY ISO PCPN DEVELOPING OVER SRN HALF OF THE CWFA THIS AFTN (AS
BOTH HRR/WRF HAVE INDICATED) SO HAVE ADDED LOW POPS FOR THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS IN THE GRIDS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE FCST IN THE SHORT TERM ATTM BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SAID
SHORTER-RANGE MODELS HAVE ALSO INDICATED SOME ISO POPS FOR TOMOR-
ROW AS WELL.
HOWEVER...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR SE TX LOOK TO BE LATE IN THE
WEEK (THUR/FRI) WITH MODELS NOW FOCUSING MORE ON THE FRI/HOLIDAY
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY (FROM THE N/NE). BUT NOT
GOING TO INCREASE POPS TOO MUCH JUST YET AS THERE ARE STILL SOME
CONCERNS WITH TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES FROM THE EAST. BUT WITH
THE OTHER INGREDIENTS COMING INTO PLAY (WEAKENED RIDGE/INCREASED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) THE CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK FAIR ENOUGH ESPECI-
ALLY DURING THE AFTN HOURS. 41
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N GULF WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE FOR
MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH
SHOULD EDGE CLOSER TO THE UPPER TX COAST RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
AND SEAS UNDER 3 FEET. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE AND
LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP WITH ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE THE MORNING ALONG THE COAST.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 95 75 94 74 / 10 10 20 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 77 94 76 95 76 / 10 10 20 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 89 79 90 79 / 10 10 20 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
718 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY ON THE EAST SIDE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE FRONT
WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
HURRICANE ARTHER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. DRIER AND COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...
BOTH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE HAVE BEEN MAKING
THEIR WAY EASTWARD WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WE ARE
EXPECTING THE DEVELOPMENT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE AMPLE...PARCELS WILL BE FIGHTING
A WARM NOSE JUST ABOVE 700 MB. HOWEVER...ONCE PENETRATED...THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF CAPE TO WORK WITH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION. CURRENTLY...SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
HAS STARTED JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SAME IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SOON OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH A FOCUS OF ACTIVITY ALONG
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
A CHALLENGE FOR THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER HEADING SOUTH INTO
THE AREA...FOLLOWING THE OUTFLOW DENSITY CURRENT OF ONGOING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. THE 16Z/NOON HRRR MODEL IS OFFERING A
SOLUTION THAT EXPANDS CONVECTION NEAR PA/MD/WV INTO A THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER THAT HEADS QUICKLY SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
IMPACTS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION AROUND SUNSET...AND THEN
CONTINUES SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH 100 AM
WEDNESDAY. CURIOUSLY ENOUGH...THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MODEL
HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH THIS POTENTIAL EVOLUTION BASED UPON
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT THE
OPERATIONAL NAM ALSO GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO THIS SOLUTION...WILL BE
REFLECT THIS EVENT IN OUR FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE AT THIS POINT.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DRAW
CLOSER TO THE AREA AND PROVIDE FOR GREATER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION AS COMPARED TO THE SCENARIO TODAY. SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF BUCKINGHAM COUNTY VA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SPC INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY2
OUTLOOK. VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG HEATING LEADING TO 2000-3000 J/KG
MLCAPE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH STRONGER
UPDRAFTS DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
DECENT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING MODERATE SHEAR AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SUPPORT THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS. THE OTHER
CONCERN IS THAT THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE CLOSE TO A HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN BUCKINGHAM COUNTY. THE COVERAGE IS TOO LIMITED IN AREA
AND TIME FOR ANY HEAT HEADLINES. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY WITH CONVECTION. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
ON THURSDAY...OUR AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A SECOND EJECTING SHORT
WAVE FROM THE MIDWEST TROUGH AND TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVING
NORTHEAST UP CAROLINA COAST. WHILE TROPICAL STORM ITSELF DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY TO GIVE US DIRECT IMPACT BASED ON CURRENT CONSENSUS
TRACKS...THE ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT AND
MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITH
CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY NEED FOR FLASH FLOOD
HEADLINES WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL FORECASTED TO OUR NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...ANY TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING
ISSUES. WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ADJMETBC HIGHS THURSDAY WITH
VALUES FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY...ARTHUR WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
AND BE LOCATED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE BLACKSBURG CWA...BUT WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE PIEDMONT AREAS FOR LINGERING HEAVY
RAINFALL...AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS POINT DESPITE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. NHC TRACK IS CLOSER TO GFS INSTEAD OF THE SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION. IN ANY CASE...HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST UNTIL 06Z
FRIDAY. LEANED LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ADJMAVBC FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE
EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE AS IT
TRACKS NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR THE EAST COAST DURING THE PERIOD.
CONSULT NHC PRODUCTS FOR THE LATEST INFO REGARDING T.S. ARTHUR.
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY AND REACHES THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DECREASED POPS FRIDAY MORNING GOING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PLAYED
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER
80S IN THE EAST. A PLEASANT FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL PRODUCE A DELIGHTFUL SATURDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...SOME RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO HIGHS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
WEST. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.
WITH DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE...MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH READINGS
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE
PIEDMONT ON MONDAY TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE EAST TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT TUESDAY...
HEAT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITIES ARE AROUND FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS MORNINGS DISTURBANCE LEFT A
WEST WIND OVER THE AREA. ANY STORMS TRYING TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING DID NOT LAST LONGER THAN 15 MINUTES. ONCE MIXING
RELAXES AROUND SUNSET...A FEW STORMS MAYBE ABLE TO FORM AND LINGER
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BUT UNTIL WE SEE STORMS DEVELOP...WILL LEAN
TOWARDS GUIDANCE AND LEAVE ALL SITES DRY. VALLEY FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN FORM IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS (BCB/LWB)...BURNING OFF AROUND 13Z
WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE OHIO-TENN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND...HEAT...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITIES...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. WIND AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD..
EXTENDED AVIATION...
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE ADVANCING FRONT AND TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS ARE LOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK
OF ARTHUR.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...DS/RCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
743 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. COLD FRONT ARRIVES MIDWEEK SHOULD BE
JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT MONDAY...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...MAINLY
TO ADJUST RAIN CHANCES THROUGH LATE MORNING AND TO TWEAK CLOUD
COVER...BOTH BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS RESPECTIVELY.
THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK.
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER LEVELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE MTNS THIS
MORNING WITH MAIN TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL...ENOUGH
BACKING ALOFT AND SFC CONVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
FORM AFTER MID-LATE MORNING IN THE MTNS. FOLLOWED THE 3Z RAP EARLY...
THEN TRANSITION TOWARD BLEND OF GFS/CMC/EC. STILL NOT TOO EXCITED
ABOUT GOING HIGHER THAN 50 POPS TODAY...BUT AT LEAST THE WRN CWA
WILL BE IN AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH TO ALLOW FOR GOOD COVERAGE...
WHILE THE PIEDMONT STAYS SITUATED WITHIN A WEAKENING WEDGE.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SHOWS THE NC MTNS INTO THE SRN VA BLUE
RIDGE WITH 5 PERCENT THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
HIGHER CAPES TODAY...WITH PWATS RUNNING ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...WET MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. IN
ADDITION...WIND FLOW REMAINS WEAK SO HEAVY RAINS/FLASH FLOODING TO
BE CONCERNED ABOUT ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SW CWA WHERE FLOODING
OCCURRED IN SMYTH COUNTY SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT ISOLATED THREAT SO NO
WATCH AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS. THINK NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
80S...SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.
TONIGHT...THE COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA DIMINISHES ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LINGERS IN THE MTNS...SO ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY STICK AROUND
PAST MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS TO STAY ELEVATED IN THE
60S...TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...
FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY NORTH ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL START THE DAY WITH A LIGHT WEST
SOUTHWEST WIND COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND BELIEVE THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MORE THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SPOTTY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GREATER COVERAGE FOUND ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE VARIETY...HIT AND MISS IN
NATURE. MAY HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS BY EARLY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL LOSE ITS EASTWARD PUSH
BY LATE EVENING...STALLING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. MAY SEE SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT APPROACH THE
WESTERN RIDGES AFTER SUNSET...WITH THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING AS IT
ADVANCES.
THE LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY...AND EXPECT
GREATER INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING COOLER AIR ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. STILL EXPECT
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN A PULSE HIT AND MISS NATURE...BUT SEE A
STRONGER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE...WHILE THE
MOUNTAINS CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO GET
OFF TO AN EARLIER START...WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND WITH CAPES
EXPECTED TO REACH 2000-2500 J/KG...EXPECT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT...AND LARGE
HAIL MORE AS A SECONDARY...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT...THREAT.
ON THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL GET ANOTHER PUSH AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS CANADA...BUT NOT SOON ENOUGH TO
BRING THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA. AS SUCH...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...WITH MORE STRONG SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR
LOW/MID 80S WEST TO LOW 90S EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE PIPELINE OF WARM MUGGY AIR FROM THE
GULF IN BUSINESS...AND EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE SKIES CLEAR AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL FINALLY BRING COOLER DRIER AIR TO OUR AREA.
AS OF 2 AM MONDAY...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) GIVES THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS IT IS PICKED UP BY THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...STILL
NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM TO OUR FORECAST
AREA. SEE THE NHC WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE...COULD TRIGGERS A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN EASTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. ITS IMPACTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST APPEAR MINIMAL AS
MODELS PUSH IT OUT TO SEA. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN OUR
REGION...DECIDED TO USED HPCGUIDE LIGHT POPS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED LOW AND MID CLOUDS WORKING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER HAS
HELPED TO ERODE EARLY MORNING FOG IN A FEW AREAS...WITH ALL TAF
SITES NOW REPORTING VISIBILITIES 6SM OR BETTER. ONLY KLWB
REPORTING MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH KBCB/KBLF MAY
HAVE LOWER CEILINGS PASS OVERHEAD THROUGH 14Z.
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAINS MINIMAL THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT
THE BEST RAIN SHOWER/STORM THREAT TO ARRIVE BY MIDDAY/17Z IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO AFFECT KLWB/KBLF...THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARD KROA/KBCB
BY 18Z-20Z. COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY HIT AND
MISS...SO LEFT PREDOMINANT THUNDER/SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS.
HOWEVER...WHERE RAINFALL DOES OCCUR...IT MAY BE HEAVY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1SM. LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO
TRANSLATE TO SLOWER MOVING CELLS...WHICH MAY LINGER OVER AN
AIRPORT FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. HIGH PRESSURE IS SUPPORTING
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS/LESS COVERAGE FURTHER EAST FOR KDAN/KLYH...
SO HAVE NO MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THESE TAF SITES FOR NOW.
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION WANING DURING THE 22Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...
SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION FROM TAFS AFTER THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY STILL REMAIN FOR A FEW HOURS.
EXPECT A REPEAT OF VFR CONDITIONS INTERMIXED WITH LOW MVFR/IFR
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FROM
KLWB...DENSE FOG WILL BE HIGHLY LIKELY. FOG ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBCB
AND ANYWHERE THAT RECEIVES SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION OCCURS TUESDAY...THOUGH CANNOT FULLY
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE MTNS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH HEAD EAST INTO THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK...WITH GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAYS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT DURING STORMS AND AT NIGHT WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE. FRONT SLOWS DOWN PER LOW PRESSURE/TROPICAL LOW
STRENGTHENING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SHRA/TSRA THREAT AT LEAST THURSDAY...THOUGH
FRIDAY COULD BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE IF THE OFFSHORE LOW DEEPENS
ENOUGH INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE NHC PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...NF/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
706 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY...ALLOWING MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. COLD FRONT ARRIVES MIDWEEK SHOULD BE
JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT MONDAY...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...MAINLY
TO ADJUST RAIN CHANCES THROUGH LATE MORNING AND TO TWEAK CLOUD
COVER...BOTH BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS RESPECTIVELY.
THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK.
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER LEVELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE MTNS THIS
MORNING WITH MAIN TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL...ENOUGH
BACKING ALOFT AND SFC CONVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
FORM AFTER MID-LATE MORNING IN THE MTNS. FOLLOWED THE 3Z RAP EARLY...
THEN TRANSITION TOWARD BLEND OF GFS/CMC/EC. STILL NOT TOO EXCITED
ABOUT GOING HIGHER THAN 50 POPS TODAY...BUT AT LEAST THE WRN CWA
WILL BE IN AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH TO ALLOW FOR GOOD COVERAGE...
WHILE THE PIEDMONT STAYS SITUATED WITHIN A WEAKENING WEDGE.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SHOWS THE NC MTNS INTO THE SRN VA BLUE
RIDGE WITH 5 PERCENT THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
HIGHER CAPES TODAY...WITH PWATS RUNNING ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...WET MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. IN
ADDITION...WIND FLOW REMAINS WEAK SO HEAVY RAINS/FLASH FLOODING TO
BE CONCERNED ABOUT ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SW CWA WHERE FLOODING
OCCURRED IN SMYTH COUNTY SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT ISOLATED THREAT SO NO
WATCH AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS. THINK NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
80S...SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.
TONIGHT...THE COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA DIMINISHES ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LINGERS IN THE MTNS...SO ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY STICK AROUND
PAST MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS TO STAY ELEVATED IN THE
60S...TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...
FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY NORTH ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL START THE DAY WITH A LIGHT WEST
SOUTHWEST WIND COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND BELIEVE THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MORE THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SPOTTY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GREATER COVERAGE FOUND ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE VARIETY...HIT AND MISS IN
NATURE. MAY HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS BY EARLY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL LOSE ITS EASTWARD PUSH
BY LATE EVENING...STALLING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. MAY SEE SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT APPROACH THE
WESTERN RIDGES AFTER SUNSET...WITH THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING AS IT
ADVANCES.
THE LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY...AND EXPECT
GREATER INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING COOLER AIR ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. STILL EXPECT
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN A PULSE HIT AND MISS NATURE...BUT SEE A
STRONGER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE...WHILE THE
MOUNTAINS CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO GET
OFF TO AN EARLIER START...WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND WITH CAPES
EXPECTED TO REACH 2000-2500 J/KG...EXPECT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT...AND LARGE
HAIL MORE AS A SECONDARY...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT...THREAT.
ON THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL GET ANOTHER PUSH AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS CANADA...BUT NOT SOON ENOUGH TO
BRING THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA. AS SUCH...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...WITH MORE STRONG SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR
LOW/MID 80S WEST TO LOW 90S EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE PIPELINE OF WARM MUGGY AIR FROM THE
GULF IN BUSINESS...AND EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE SKIES CLEAR AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL FINALLY BRING COOLER DRIER AIR TO OUR AREA.
AS OF 2 AM MONDAY...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) GIVES THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS IT IS PICKED UP BY THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...STILL
NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM TO OUR FORECAST
AREA. SEE THE NHC WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE...COULD TRIGGERS A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN EASTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. ITS IMPACTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST APPEAR MINIMAL AS
MODELS PUSH IT OUT TO SEA. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN OUR
REGION...DECIDED TO USED HPCGUIDE LIGHT POPS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...
MAINLY VFR THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MTNS.
THINK THE LOWER CIGS WILL STAY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE
CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG AT LYH/DAN AROUND 09-12Z.
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE MINIMAL THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT
THE BEST RAIN SHOWER/STORM THREAT TO ARRIVE BY MIDDAY/17Z IN THE
MTNS...THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARD ROA/BCB BY 18Z-20Z.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE TO BE SCATTERED SO LEFT PREDOMINANT
THUNDER/SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS. LESS COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE SO NOT EVEN VCTS SEEN HERE FOR NOW.
THE MORNINGS LOWER CIGS AND FOG WILL BE LIFTING INTO VFR CIGS BY
MID TO LATE MORNING...LAST AT BLF.
TOOK VCTS OUT OF THE TAFS AFTER 22Z...BUT COULD STILL SEE SHOWERS
LINGERING OVER THE MTNS INTO EARLY EVENING PER LATEST MODELS.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TUE MORNING. A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION OCCURS TUESDAY...THOUGH
CANNOT FULLY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE MTNS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH HEAD EAST INTO THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK...WITH GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAYS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT DURING STORMS AND AT NIGHT WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE. FRONT SLOWS DOWN PER LOW PRESSURE/TROPICAL LOW
STRENGTHENING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SHRA/TSRA THREAT AT LEAST THURSDAY...THOUGH
FRIDAY COULD BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE IF THE OFFSHORE LOW DEEPENS
ENOUGH INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE NHC PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...PC/RAB/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GREEN BAY WI
516 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 508 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
CLUSTER OF STRONGER STORMS LIFTG NE ACRS COLUMBIA COUNTY LOOKS TO
BE HEADED FOR MANITOWOC COUNTY. THAT COULD BRING A SVR RISK TO THE
FAR SE PART OF THE FCST AREA. THE MAIN BOOKEND VORTEX WITH THE
BOW REMAINS ON A TRAJECTORY TO STAY S OF THE AREA.
PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR 35-40 KT WAKE-LOW WIND GUSTS
GETTING INTO THE SW PART OF THE FCST AREA. PLAN TO HANDLE WITH SPS
AND GRIDS/MAIN FCST PRODUCTS FOR NOW. MAX WIND GUSTS WL OCCUR
RIGHT AT THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN...WHERE THE SHARP REFLECTIVITY
GRADIENT IS LOCATED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
OVERALL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HAS
BECOME APPARENT. DERECHO PRODUCING MCS WL RACE EWD ACRS SRN WI/NRN
IL WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES. CLEARLY
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM WL PASS TO OUR S. MAIN CONCERNS NOW ARE
WHETHER OR NOT E-C WI GETS NICKED BY THE NRN END OF THE
SYSTEM...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WAKE- OW INDUCED WIND GUSTS BEHIND
THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.
RECENT HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS
OVERLAYED ON CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SUGGEST MAIN BOOKEND VORTEX ON
THE NRN END OF THE LARGE BOW SHOULD TURN NEWD AND MV/EVOLVE TOWARD
THE SERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. BUT THIS HAS YET TO HAPPEN. UNLESS
A TURN TO THE NE OCCURS SOON...IT WL BE TOO LATE TO BRING THE
STG/SVR PORTION OF THE MCS INTO THE FCST AREA.
SECOND CONCERN IS WAKE-LOW INDUCED WIND GUSTS. THE NEAREST OF
THOSE THUS FAR HAVE BEEN ACRS NERN IA. THOSE TYPICALLY DEVELOP
RIGHT AT THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN...WHEN THE TRAILING PORTION OF
THE PCPN STARTS TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE. WL BE WATCHING TO SEE
WHETHER ANY OF THOSE TRENDS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE WORKING TOWARD THE
FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVENING.
ELSEHWERE...DEEP MIXING INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT RESULTED IN
GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW POWER OUTAGES OVER N-C WI. HANDLED THOSE BY
BUMPING UP WINDS IN THE FCST...AND NOW THAT MID/HIGH CLD SHIELD
HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COMPLEX
WEATHER EVOLUTION UNFOLDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OCCLUDED
FRONT OR MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL UPPER
PENINSULA TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WITH NEAR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS OVER N-C WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...CONVECTION HAS YET TO
FIRE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE 18Z GRB SOUNDING
SHOWED TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BETWEEN 750-550MB...RESULTING IN A
CAP OF AROUND 60 J/KG...THOUGH ML CAPES ARE GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG.
LIGHT RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A POTENT MCS
THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY OVER WESTERN IOWA. THIS MCS HAS SHOWN
NO SIGNS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST DESPITE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE FRONT AND MCS MOVE
EAST...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE MCS AND
SHORTWAVE FARTHER WEST MAY HELP TO REDUCE THE CAP OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. IF THE MCS STARTS A MORE NE TRACK DUE TO BACKING WIND
FIELDS ALOFT...ASCENT WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. BUT ITS STILL NOT CLEAR IF THIS NE TRACK WILL OCCUR OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM BEFORE LIGHT RAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE MCS ARRIVES. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUTOMA TO GREEN BAY TO ALGOMA. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. BUT ITS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND POINTS SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED TO THE DAY.
TONIGHT...FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE GFS AND HRRR...HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD PROMOTE THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND IOWA TRACKING ENE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. IF LIGHT RAIN DOES NOT EXTEND INTO AREAS
FROM WAUTOMA TO GREEN BAY TO ALGOMA THIS AFTERNOON...HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF THE MCS COULD BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE CAP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS
CORRIDOR. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR AS
INSTABILITY IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE...AND THE STRONGEST CONVECTION USUALLY FOLLOWS THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY. DUE TO THE STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT (45-55KTS OF 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR)...WILL HAVE TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE EVENING...THOUGH FEELING IS THAT MOST OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ISOLATED
COVERAGE REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN ASSUMING THE LIGHT
RAIN DOES NOT HOLD TOGETHER TO MAKE IT INTO THIS AREA. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THOUGH THIS SHOULD
BE CONFINE TO THE WAUTOMA TO ALGOMA AREAS. ONCE THE PRECIP EXITS NE
WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE EVENING...DRY SLOTTING SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD. THEN LOW STRATUS WILL
APPROACH N-C WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGHING WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL PROMOTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD HAVE GREATER COVERAGE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 70S
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
MAIN FOCUS ON SHORT-TERM SEVERE/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SO WILL BE BRIEF WITH EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION. MAIN
CONCERNS ARE LOW-END PCPN THREATS...AND A RETURN TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS FOR A FEW DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CYCLONIC NW FLOW AT THE SFC WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO MIDWEEK. CAA
AND CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (4TH OF JULY)...BRINGING ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY AND PLEASANT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE PERFECT FOR 4TH OF JULY FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS.
THE SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...WITH RETURN FLOW ALLOWING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. MOST MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED NEAR A WARM FRONT OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN IL OVER
THE WEEKEND...SO 20-30 POPS SHOULD COVER THE SITUATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
SCT TO BKN MVFR CIGS WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION
IN A HUMID AIRMASS EXCLUDING AREAS OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE DRIER AIR IS PRESENT. FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS IS THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING. LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL TRANSLATE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHORTLY AFTER 18Z
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 20Z OR 21Z. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE NORTH OF THIS TRACK AND COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM WAUTOMA TO
ALGOMA BETWEEN 21 AND 03Z AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. STORMS WILL EXIT THE REGION BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE. A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS
WITHIN THIS COOLER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MUCH OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
420 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
OVERALL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HAS
BECOME APPARENT. DERECHO PRODUCING MCS WL RACE EWD ACRS SRN WI/NRN
IL WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES. CLEARLY
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM WL PASS TO OUR S. MAIN CONCERNS NOW ARE
WHETHER OR NOT E-C WI GETS NICKED BY THE NRN END OF THE
SYSTEM...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WAKE- OW INDUCED WIND GUSTS BEHIND
THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.
RECENT HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS
OVERLAYED ON CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SUGGEST MAIN BOOKEND VORTEX ON
THE NRN END OF THE LARGE BOW SHOULD TURN NEWD AND MV/EVOLVE TOWARD
THE SERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. BUT THIS HAS YET TO HAPPEN. UNLESS
A TURN TO THE NE OCCURS SOON...IT WL BE TOO LATE TO BRING THE
STG/SVR PORTION OF THE MCS INTO THE FCST AREA.
SECOND CONCERN IS WAKE-LOW INDUCED WIND GUSTS. THE NEAREST OF
THOSE THUS FAR HAVE BEEN ACRS NERN IA. THOSE TYPICALLY DEVELOP
RIGHT AT THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN...WHEN THE TRAILING PORTION OF
THE PCPN STARTS TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE. WL BE WATCHING TO SEE
WHETHER ANY OF THOSE TRENDS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE WORKING TOWARD THE
FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVENING.
ELSEHWERE...DEEP MIXING INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT RESULTED IN
GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW POWER OUTAGES OVER N-C WI. HANDLED THOSE BY
BUMPING UP WINDS IN THE FCST...AND NOW THAT MID/HIGH CLD SHIELD
HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COMPLEX
WEATHER EVOLUTION UNFOLDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OCCLUDED
FRONT OR MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL UPPER
PENINSULA TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WITH NEAR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS OVER N-C WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...CONVECTION HAS YET TO
FIRE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE 18Z GRB SOUNDING
SHOWED TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BETWEEN 750-550MB...RESULTING IN A
CAP OF AROUND 60 J/KG...THOUGH ML CAPES ARE GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG.
LIGHT RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A POTENT MCS
THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY OVER WESTERN IOWA. THIS MCS HAS SHOWN
NO SIGNS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST DESPITE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE FRONT AND MCS MOVE
EAST...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE MCS AND
SHORTWAVE FARTHER WEST MAY HELP TO REDUCE THE CAP OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. IF THE MCS STARTS A MORE NE TRACK DUE TO BACKING WIND
FIELDS ALOFT...ASCENT WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. BUT ITS STILL NOT CLEAR IF THIS NE TRACK WILL OCCUR OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM BEFORE LIGHT RAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE MCS ARRIVES. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUTOMA TO GREEN BAY TO ALGOMA. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. BUT ITS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND POINTS SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED TO THE DAY.
TONIGHT...FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE GFS AND HRRR...HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD PROMOTE THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND IOWA TRACKING ENE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. IF LIGHT RAIN DOES NOT EXTEND INTO AREAS
FROM WAUTOMA TO GREEN BAY TO ALGOMA THIS AFTERNOON...HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF THE MCS COULD BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE CAP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS
CORRIDOR. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR AS
INSTABILITY IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE...AND THE STRONGEST CONVECTION USUALLY FOLLOWS THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY. DUE TO THE STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT (45-55KTS OF 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR)...WILL HAVE TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE EVENING...THOUGH FEELING IS THAT MOST OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ISOLATED
COVERAGE REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN ASSUMING THE LIGHT
RAIN DOES NOT HOLD TOGETHER TO MAKE IT INTO THIS AREA. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THOUGH THIS SHOULD
BE CONFINE TO THE WAUTOMA TO ALGOMA AREAS. ONCE THE PRECIP EXITS NE
WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE EVENING...DRY SLOTTING SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD. THEN LOW STRATUS WILL
APPROACH N-C WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGHING WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL PROMOTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD HAVE GREATER COVERAGE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 70S
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
MAIN FOCUS ON SHORT-TERM SEVERE/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SO WILL BE BRIEF WITH EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION. MAIN
CONCERNS ARE LOW-END PCPN THREATS...AND A RETURN TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS FOR A FEW DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CYCLONIC NW FLOW AT THE SFC WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO MIDWEEK. CAA
AND CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (4TH OF JULY)...BRINGING ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY AND PLEASANT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE PERFECT FOR 4TH OF JULY FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS.
THE SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...WITH RETURN FLOW ALLOWING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. MOST MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED NEAR A WARM FRONT OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN IL OVER
THE WEEKEND...SO 20-30 POPS SHOULD COVER THE SITUATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
SCT TO BKN MVFR CIGS WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION
IN A HUMID AIRMASS EXCLUDING AREAS OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE DRIER AIR IS PRESENT. FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS IS THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING. LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL TRANSLATE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHORTLY AFTER 18Z
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 20Z OR 21Z. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE NORTH OF THIS TRACK AND COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM WAUTOMA TO
ALGOMA BETWEEN 21 AND 03Z AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. STORMS WILL EXIT THE REGION BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE. A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS
WITHIN THIS COOLER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MUCH OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COMPLEX
WEATHER EVOLUTION UNFOLDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OCCLUDED
FRONT OR MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL UPPER
PENINSULA TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WITH NEAR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS OVER N-C WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...CONVECTION HAS YET TO
FIRE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE 18Z GRB SOUNDING
SHOWED TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BETWEEN 750-550MB...RESULTING IN A
CAP OF AROUND 60 J/KG...THOUGH ML CAPES ARE GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG.
LIGHT RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A POTENT MCS
THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY OVER WESTERN IOWA. THIS MCS HAS SHOWN
NO SIGNS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST DESPITE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE FRONT AND MCS MOVE
EAST...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE MCS AND
SHORTWAVE FARTHER WEST MAY HELP TO REDUCE THE CAP OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. IF THE MCS STARTS A MORE NE TRACK DUE TO BACKING WIND
FIELDS ALOFT...ASCENT WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. BUT ITS STILL NOT CLEAR IF THIS NE TRACK WILL OCCUR OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM BEFORE LIGHT RAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE MCS ARRIVES. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUTOMA TO GREEN BAY TO ALGOMA. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. BUT ITS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND POINTS SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED TO THE DAY.
TONIGHT...FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE GFS AND HRRR...HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD PROMOTE THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND IOWA TRACKING ENE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. IF LIGHT RAIN DOES NOT EXTEND INTO AREAS
FROM WAUTOMA TO GREEN BAY TO ALGOMA THIS AFTERNOON...HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF THE MCS COULD BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE CAP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS
CORRIDOR. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR AS
INSTABILITY IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE...AND THE STRONGEST CONVECTION USUALLY FOLLOWS THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY. DUE TO THE STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT (45-55KTS OF 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR)...WILL HAVE TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE EVENING...THOUGH FEELING IS THAT MOST OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ISOLATED
COVERAGE REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN ASSUMING THE LIGHT
RAIN DOES NOT HOLD TOGETHER TO MAKE IT INTO THIS AREA. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THOUGH THIS SHOULD
BE CONFINE TO THE WAUTOMA TO ALGOMA AREAS. ONCE THE PRECIP EXITS NE
WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE EVENING...DRY SLOTTING SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD. THEN LOW STRATUS WILL
APPROACH N-C WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGHING WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL PROMOTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD HAVE GREATER COVERAGE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 70S
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
MAIN FOCUS ON SHORT-TERM SEVERE/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SO WILL BE BRIEF WITH EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION. MAIN
CONCERNS ARE LOW-END PCPN THREATS...AND A RETURN TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS FOR A FEW DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CYCLONIC NW FLOW AT THE SFC WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO MIDWEEK. CAA
AND CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (4TH OF JULY)...BRINGING ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY AND PLEASANT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE PERFECT FOR 4TH OF JULY FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS.
THE SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...WITH RETURN FLOW ALLOWING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. MOST MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED NEAR A WARM FRONT OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN IL OVER
THE WEEKEND...SO 20-30 POPS SHOULD COVER THE SITUATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
SCT TO BKN MVFR CIGS WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION
IN A HUMID AIRMASS EXCLUDING AREAS OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE DRIER AIR IS PRESENT. FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS IS THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING. LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL TRANSLATE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHORTLY AFTER 18Z
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 20Z OR 21Z. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE NORTH OF THIS TRACK AND COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM WAUTOMA TO
ALGOMA BETWEEN 21 AND 03Z AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. STORMS WILL EXIT THE REGION BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE. A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS
WITHIN THIS COOLER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MUCH OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1217 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
AT 4 AM...THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WHICH BROUGHT THE
HEAVY RAIN TO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND POSSIBLE
TORNADO NEAR FENNIMORE WISCONSIN...EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN TO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN 850 MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
AND NORTHWEST IOWA. SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO
DEVELOP ALONG ALONG A 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC BAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING.
FOR THIS MORNING...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG A 900 TO 700 MB BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE
MINNESOTA AND IOWA BORDER. THIS IS STRENGTHENING WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION GOING DESPITE THE WEAKENING THAT IS TAKING
PLACE IN THE 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. DEEP MOISTURE
GRADUALLY POOLS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE MORNING. ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS CLIMB FROM 3 TO
3.5 KM AT 30.12Z TO AROUND 4 KM AT 30.18Z. DURING THIS SAME TIME
PERIOD...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES TO
2.0 INCHES IN THIS SAME AREA. AS A RESULT...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
IN ADDITION...MEAN LAYER CAPES WILL REMAIN FROM 1500 TO
3500 J/KG. WHILE TYPICALLY THIS INSTABILITY WOULD WANE FROM THE
CONVECTION... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THIS
INSTABILITY FROM AREAS THAT ARE CAPPED TO OUR SOUTH. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. WITH A MAJORITY OF THIS SHEAR LOCATED
BELOW 3 KM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE SUPERCELLS TO
EVOLVED INTO LINES.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND MESO MODELS
SUGGEST THAT CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESPONSE TO THE 850 MB
LOW AND STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING TOGETHER ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE LIKELY TOO
STRONG WITH THEIR CYCLOGENESIS AND THIS GREATLY AFFECTS THEIR WIND
FIELDS. AS RESULT...LOOKED MORE AT THE WIND FIELDS IN THE MESO
MODELS. EVEN THESE MODELS...SHOW A RAPID STRENGTHENING IN THE 925
AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. THIS CAUSES THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS TO INCREASE INTO THE 4 TO 4.5 INCH RANGE. WITH UPWARD
FORCING BEING ENHANCED FURTHER AS THE AREA ENTERS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN TO
CONTINUE.
AS WITH THIS MORNING...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN THE EXCESS
OF 45 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION THE COMBINATION OF THE
STRONG CAP TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING
THIS 2500 TO 3500 J/KG ML CAPES INTO THE AREA WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS GOING DESPITE THE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING WINDS
FIELDS DUE TO THE CYCLOGENESIS...THE 0-1 KM HELICITY AND BULK
SHEAR ALONG WITH LCL HEIGHTS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA AND IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THE MID AND LATTER PARTS OF
THE AFTERNOON. THE DUBUQUE RAP HODOGRAPH FOR 29.22Z IS VERY
IMPRESSIVE.
FOR THIS EVENING...THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL
COME QUICKLY TO AN END AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
UNLIKE TODAY...THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS INSTABILITY /500 TO
1000 J/KG SURFACE CAPES/ AND LESS 0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 35 KNOTS.
AS A RESULT...JUST EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH ML CAPES GENERALLY LESS 500 J/KG...MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE THIS PERIOD DRY. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS THE ECMWF WHICH
GENERATES A FEW SHOWERS. SINCE IT IS SUMMER AND THE ECMWF
TYPICALLY DOES BETTER IN THIS TIME PERIOD...JUST KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING.
FROM THE FOURTH OF JULY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THEIR TIMING AND LOCATION OF WAVES...SO
JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS SHRA/TS ACTIVITY AT KRST/KLSE...BUT
PROBABLY WILL SEE BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR ANY
SEVERE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING BRIEFLY
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND DEPARTING CONVECTION. MODELS ARE THEN INDICATING
A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH BASES SLIPPING INTO HIGHER-END MVFR
CATEGORY AFTER 10Z AS COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. LOOKS LIKE SOME SHOWERS WILL START POPPING UP BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT/STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. VSBY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR BUT CLOUD CIGS
STRADDLING MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2 TO
2.25 INCHES...SATURATED SOILS...AND ALREADY HIGH RIVERS AND
STREAM ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ054-055-061.
MN...NONE.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
632 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
AT 4 AM...THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WHICH BROUGHT THE
HEAVY RAIN TO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND POSSIBLE
TORNADO NEAR FENNIMORE WISCONSIN...EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN TO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN 850 MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
AND NORTHWEST IOWA. SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO
DEVELOP ALONG ALONG A 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC BAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING.
FOR THIS MORNING...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG A 900 TO 700 MB BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE
MINNESOTA AND IOWA BORDER. THIS IS STRENGTHENING WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION GOING DESPITE THE WEAKENING THAT IS TAKING
PLACE IN THE 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. DEEP MOISTURE
GRADUALLY POOLS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE MORNING. ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS CLIMB FROM 3 TO
3.5 KM AT 30.12Z TO AROUND 4 KM AT 30.18Z. DURING THIS SAME TIME
PERIOD...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES TO
2.0 INCHES IN THIS SAME AREA. AS A RESULT...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
IN ADDITION...MEAN LAYER CAPES WILL REMAIN FROM 1500 TO
3500 J/KG. WHILE TYPICALLY THIS INSTABILITY WOULD WANE FROM THE
CONVECTION... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THIS
INSTABILITY FROM AREAS THAT ARE CAPPED TO OUR SOUTH. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. WITH A MAJORITY OF THIS SHEAR LOCATED
BELOW 3 KM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE SUPERCELLS TO
EVOLVED INTO LINES.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND MESO MODELS
SUGGEST THAT CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESPONSE TO THE 850 MB
LOW AND STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING TOGETHER ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE LIKELY TOO
STRONG WITH THEIR CYCLOGENESIS AND THIS GREATLY AFFECTS THEIR WIND
FIELDS. AS RESULT...LOOKED MORE AT THE WIND FIELDS IN THE MESO
MODELS. EVEN THESE MODELS...SHOW A RAPID STRENGTHENING IN THE 925
AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. THIS CAUSES THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS TO INCREASE INTO THE 4 TO 4.5 INCH RANGE. WITH UPWARD
FORCING BEING ENHANCED FURTHER AS THE AREA ENTERS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN TO
CONTINUE.
AS WITH THIS MORNING...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN THE EXCESS
OF 45 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION THE COMBINATION OF THE
STRONG CAP TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING
THIS 2500 TO 3500 J/KG ML CAPES INTO THE AREA WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS GOING DESPITE THE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING WINDS
FIELDS DUE TO THE CYCLOGENESIS...THE 0-1 KM HELICITY AND BULK
SHEAR ALONG WITH LCL HEIGHTS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA AND IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THE MID AND LATTER PARTS OF
THE AFTERNOON. THE DUBUQUE RAP HODOGRAPH FOR 29.22Z IS VERY
IMPRESSIVE.
FOR THIS EVENING...THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL
COME QUICKLY TO AN END AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
UNLIKE TODAY...THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS INSTABILITY /500 TO
1000 J/KG SURFACE CAPES/ AND LESS 0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 35 KNOTS.
AS A RESULT...JUST EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH ML CAPES GENERALLY LESS 500 J/KG...MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE THIS PERIOD DRY. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS THE ECMWF WHICH
GENERATES A FEW SHOWERS. SINCE IT IS SUMMER AND THE ECMWF
TYPICALLY DOES BETTER IN THIS TIME PERIOD...JUST KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING.
FROM THE FOURTH OF JULY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THEIR TIMING AND LOCATION OF WAVES...SO
JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR TODAY AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO PUT TSRA INTO THE
FORECAST...BUT THE MAIN PERIOD WHERE IT WILL BE POSSIBLE IS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD SOME TSRA DEVELOP AND HIT THE TAF
SITES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FROM THE WEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2 TO
2.25 INCHES...SATURATED SOILS...AND ALREADY HIGH RIVERS AND
STREAM ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ054-055-061.
MN...NONE.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
420 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
AT 4 AM...THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WHICH BROUGHT THE
HEAVY RAIN TO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND POSSIBLE
TORNADO NEAR FENNIMORE WISCONSIN...EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN TO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN 850 MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
AND NORTHWEST IOWA. SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO
DEVELOP ALONG ALONG A 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC BAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING.
FOR THIS MORNING...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG A 900 TO 700 MB BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE
MINNESOTA AND IOWA BORDER. THIS IS STRENGTHENING WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION GOING DESPITE THE WEAKENING THAT IS TAKING
PLACE IN THE 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. DEEP MOISTURE
GRADUALLY POOLS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE MORNING. ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS CLIMB FROM 3 TO
3.5 KM AT 30.12Z TO AROUND 4 KM AT 30.18Z. DURING THIS SAME TIME
PERIOD...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES TO
2.0 INCHES IN THIS SAME AREA. AS A RESULT...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
IN ADDITION...MEAN LAYER CAPES WILL REMAIN FROM 1500 TO
3500 J/KG. WHILE TYPICALLY THIS INSTABILITY WOULD WANE FROM THE
CONVECTION... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THIS
INSTABILITY FROM AREAS THAT ARE CAPPED TO OUR SOUTH. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. WITH A MAJORITY OF THIS SHEAR LOCATED
BELOW 3 KM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE SUPERCELLS TO
EVOLVED INTO LINES.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND MESO MODELS
SUGGEST THAT CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESPONSE TO THE 850 MB
LOW AND STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING TOGETHER ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE LIKELY TOO
STRONG WITH THEIR CYCLOGENESIS AND THIS GREATLY AFFECTS THEIR WIND
FIELDS. AS RESULT...LOOKED MORE AT THE WIND FIELDS IN THE MESO
MODELS. EVEN THESE MODELS...SHOW A RAPID STRENGTHENING IN THE 925
AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. THIS CAUSES THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS TO INCREASE INTO THE 4 TO 4.5 INCH RANGE. WITH UPWARD
FORCING BEING ENHANCED FURTHER AS THE AREA ENTERS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN TO
CONTINUE.
AS WITH THIS MORNING...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN THE EXCESS
OF 45 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION THE COMBINATION OF THE
STRONG CAP TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING
THIS 2500 TO 3500 J/KG ML CAPES INTO THE AREA WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS GOING DESPITE THE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING WINDS
FIELDS DUE TO THE CYCLOGENESIS...THE 0-1 KM HELICITY AND BULK
SHEAR ALONG WITH LCL HEIGHTS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA AND IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THE MID AND LATTER PARTS OF
THE AFTERNOON. THE DUBUQUE RAP HODOGRAPH FOR 29.22Z IS VERY
IMPRESSIVE.
FOR THIS EVENING...THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL
COME QUICKLY TO AN END AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
UNLIKE TODAY...THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS INSTABILITY /500 TO
1000 J/KG SURFACE CAPES/ AND LESS 0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 35 KNOTS.
AS A RESULT...JUST EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH ML CAPES GENERALLY LESS 500 J/KG...MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE THIS PERIOD DRY. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS THE ECMWF WHICH
GENERATES A FEW SHOWERS. SINCE IT IS SUMMER AND THE ECMWF
TYPICALLY DOES BETTER IN THIS TIME PERIOD...JUST KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING.
FROM THE FOURTH OF JULY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THEIR TIMING AND LOCATION OF WAVES...SO
JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS THAT PASSED
THROUGH THE TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH A 5 KT OR SO SOUTHERLY BREEZE
EXISTS...MVFR/IFR BR HAS FORMED AT RST. WITH THE BREEZE STAYING
ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUING...HAVE MVFR/IFR BR AND LIFR CEILINGS AT RST WITH MVFR
BR AND POSSIBILITY OF AN LIFR CEILING AT LSE. THIS FOG AND LOW
CEILING POTENTIAL WILL QUICKLY END AFTER SUNRISE. ATTENTION THEN
SHIFTS TO THE WEST WHERE A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH IOWA
IN THE MORNING SHOULD HELP SPARK MORE SHOWERS. THESE WILL IMPACT
RST AND LSE STARTING AT 14-15Z AND LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDER...BUT ANTICIPATING THAT
TO BE ISOLATED AND THUS NO TS OR VCTS MENTION. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL EXIST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE AIR SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. A PERIOD FROM 18-23Z FOR
THE TAF SITES OF VCTS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY REFLECTS THIS...AND
LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A SHORTER PERIOD FOR
TSRA...ALONG WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY IN THE EVENING
WITH WINDS SHIFTING WESTERLY IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2 TO
2.25 INCHES...SATURATED SOILS...AND ALREADY HIGH RIVERS AND
STREAM ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR WIZ054-055-061.
MN...NONE.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE
IT WILL REMAIN RATHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER HOT DAY ON TAP
WEDNESDAY WITH A BERMUDA HIGH IN CONTROL. THEN...A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORM LATER TODAY
INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD IN JUST TIN TIME
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...WHILE ONE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATED...ANOTHER LINE HAS FIRED OFF TO EAST OF LAKE ERIE. THESE
APPEARED TO BE SPARKED BY ANOTHER VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTED FROM
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH THAT WAS NEVERTHELESS ALL IT TOOK TO "BREAK THE
CAP" ONCE MORE...OF A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
MESOSCALE MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH LINE. THE LATEST
RUC13 INDICATED IT MIGHT HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE INTO OUR REGION
AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THE 03Z HRRR WEAKENS THE LINE BUT HOLDS IT
TOGETHER AS IT APPROACHES OUR NW AREAS BY 400 AM. UNFORTUNATELY THE
03Z VERSION WAS ONLY AVAILABLE UNTIL 400 AM.
WE WILL MONITOR IT BUT SO FAR...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY UPSTREAM OFFICES (NAMELY BUFFALO).
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT IT WILL BE DRY BUT MUGGY. ACTUALLY...HAD
TO LOWER A FEW TEMPERATURES...MAINLY AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION AS
OUTFLOW WITH THE LAST LINE OF STORMS HAS COOLED THE REGION DOWN A
LITTLE AND EVEN LOWERED DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE MID 60S. THIS SHOULD
BE TEMPORARY...IF ANYTHING DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY RISE A LITTLE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LINE AND TEMPERATURES MIGHT DROP MUCH MORE.
FOR THIS UPDATE...INCREASED POPS FROM ALBANY NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT
INTO THE CHANCE RANGE AND LOWERED SOME TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS PER
OBSERVATIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF
BOTH SEVERE POTENTIAL AND MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. SYNOPTIC
FORCING LOOKS TO BE STRONGER...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH OUR REGION
BRING IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG 250 HPA
JET MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ROBUST CONVECTION...WITH SBCAPE POTENTIALLY NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL 700-500 LAPSE RATES
FORECAST TO STEEPEN TO AT LEAST 6.5C/KM. THE GREATEST THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT WILL ALSO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO HIGH PWATS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE
OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HEAT
INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH 100 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. HEAT INDICES WILL BE
CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS...SO WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WED NIGHT 500HPA FLOW REMAINS FM OH VLY TO MAINE. THE REAL SFC
CDFNT IS STILL IN OTTAWA VLY TO CINCINNATI...AND NOT MOVING EAST
VERY QUICKLY. FURTHER EAST AT THE SFC THE BERMUDA HIGH WHILE WELL
OFFSHORE SHORE CONTINUES TO PUMP MUGGY AIR AHEAD OF CDFNT OVER THE
ENTIRE E SEABOARD. IN FCA TD ARE NR OR ABOVE 70F IN MOST AREAS.
WED AFTN`S CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVNG BUT WEAKEN WITH END
OF DIURNAL HEATING...SO OTHER THAN CHC -SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY EVNG FCA
WILL SETTLE IN FOR A VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. LOWS AROUND 70 IN
MOST AREAS.
THU/THU NT MODEL SUITE (GEM/GFS/NAM) IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT.
A STRONG 500HPA SHORT WV EJECTS FM OHIO VLY...INTO E GRTLKS
THU...AND ACROSS NW NY/OTTAWA VLY THU NT. IT WILL PUSH CDFNT INTO
FCA THU...AND SLOWLY SOUTH TO ALONG THE ATLC COAST 12UTC FRI.
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS...1000-2500 J/KG CAPE REMAIN OVER
FCA...AHEAD OF CDFNT. PWAT REMAINS NR 2.0 AHEAD OF CDFNT...SO
SHOULD GENERATE VERY HEALTHY IF SUB SEVERE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HVY DOWNPOURS. SPC HAS FCA ONLY IN SEE TEXT FOR
DAY THREE...MAINLY FAR SE WHICH LOOKS GOOD GIVEN CDFNT TIMING. THE
REST OF THE AREAS WILL SEE A HUMID CLOUDY DAY WITH FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD -SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY SE. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN SEE THE
80S IN MOST AREAS THU.
TEMPS AND TD WILL FINALLY START TRENDING DOWNWARD LATE THU NT
NW...AND OVER REST OF FCA FRI AS CDFNT PUSHES THRU ENTIRE AREA.
MINS THU NT WILL BE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
FRIDAY MORNING THE CDFNT IS ALONG THE ATLC COAST INTERACTING WITH
TC ARTHUR LOCATED NR CAPE HAT. ALL GUIDANCE...NHC TRACK BRING 500 HPA
TROF ACROSS NE FRI...AND EJECT TC FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP
MOST OF ITS IMPACTS OUT OF FCA...EXCEPT ENHANCING MOISTURE NR CDFNT
IN FAR SE FCA LATE THU NT AND FRI MORNING.
CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVER MOST AREA FRI MORNING W/MODELS SPEEDING THIS
UP OVER PREVIOUS RUNS. HWVR WITH TC OFFSHORE...CDFNT NOT TO FAR OFF
COAST...CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTN IN FAR SE ALONG WITH
THREAT OF -SHRA. BY DAYS END LARGE CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL HAVE
BUILT OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLC. MUCH LESS HUMID AND
COOLER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION BY EVENING...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A DRY...SEASONABLE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. FRI HIGHS WILL
BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HPC/GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT...FRI NT 500 HPA TROF
MOVES ACROSS RGN...AND IS THEN DEEPENED WELL OFFSHORE AS IT
INTERACTS WITH TC ARTHUR. LARGE SFC HI BUILDS IN ITS WAKE FM
MIDWEST INTO NORTHEAST SAT...SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND IS ABSORBED
INTO BERMUDA HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FCA WILL SEE A DRY SEASONABLE
4TH WEEKEND.
WAA INCRG OVER FCA SUN NT INTO MON. GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS INCRG CHC
TSTMS/SHRA W/WK WMFNT SUN NT OR MON. HPC KEEPS THIS THREAT AT BAY
TIL AT LEAST TUES WHEN IT SHOWS A CDFNT REACHING UPPER GRTLKS TO
UPPER OTTAWA VLY. GIVEN DIURNAL CYCLE...INCRG LLVL MOISTURE AND A
VARIETY OF LLVL BOUNDARIES AROUND...WILL MENTION AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS
MON AND TUES IN EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. OTRW WILL POPULATE WITH
HPC.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY CHALLENGING SET OF TAF/S THIS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION...SOME SUBSIDENCE HAS RESULTED IN PARTIAL
CLEARING SKIES. METARS DEWPOINT DEPRESSION REMAIN ABOVE SEVERAL
DEGREES WHICH IS LIMITING ANY FOG/MIST FORMATION. HOWEVER...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5KTS ALONG WITH THESE PARTIAL CLEAR
SKIES...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IFR CONDITIONS TO BE OBSERVED THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP AS
WATCH TRENDS UNFOLD. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE UPSTREAM ONGOING
CONVECTION. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE FOR THESE STORMS TO WEAKEN BEFORE
ANY TAF IMPACTS OVERNIGHT.
THOSE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL ONLY INCREASE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 GROUP BEGINNING AROUND
NOON /16Z/ AND CONTINUE THE PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AS FOR WINDS...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MAGNITUDES INCREASE TOWARD 10KTS DURING
WEDNESDAY DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE
VICINITY OF DEEPER CONVECTION.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY WARM...HUMID FLOW OF AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THURSDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION MIDWEEK...AND RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RESULT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL FALL TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...AND AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WEDNESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...AS
PWATS HOVER BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES. ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...RESULTING IN PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND MINOR FLOODING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1245 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE CAPITAL REGION BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE
IT WILL REMAIN RATHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER HOT DAY ON TAP
WEDNESDAY WITH A BERMUDA HIGH IN CONTROL. THEN...A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORM LATER TODAY
INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD IN JUST TIN TIME
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...WHILE ONE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATED...ANOTHER LINE HAS FIRED OFF TO EAST OF LAKE ERIE. THESE
APPEARED TO BE SPARKED BY ANOTHER VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTED FROM
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH THAT WAS NEVERTHELESS ALL IT TOOK TO "BREAK THE
CAP" ONCE MORE...OF A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
MESOSCALE MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH LINE. THE LATEST
RUC13 INDICATED IT MIGHT HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE INTO OUR REGION
AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THE 03Z HRRR WEAKENS THE LINE BUT HOLDS IT
TOGETHER AS IT APPROACHES OUR NW AREAS BY 400 AM. UNFORTUNATELY THE
03Z VERSION WAS ONLY AVAILABLE UNTIL 400 AM.
WE WILL MONITOR IT BUT SO FAR...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY UPSTREAM OFFICES (NAMELY BUFFALO).
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT IT WILL BE DRY BUT MUGGY. ACTUALLY...HAD
TO LOWER A FEW TEMPERATURES...MAINLY AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION AS
OUTFLOW WITH THE LAST LINE OF STORMS HAS COOLED THE REGION DOWN A
LITTLE AND EVEN LOWERED DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE MID 60S. THIS SHOULD
BE TEMPORARY...IF ANYTHING DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY RISE A LITTLE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LINE AND TEMPERATURES MIGHT DROP MUCH MORE.
FOR THIS UPDATE...INCREASED POPS FROM ALBANY NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT
INTO THE CHANCE RANGE AND LOWERED SOME TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS PER
OBSERVATIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF
BOTH SEVERE POTENTIAL AND MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. SYNOPTIC
FORCING LOOKS TO BE STRONGER...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH OUR REGION
BRING IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG 250 HPA
JET MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ROBUST CONVECTION...WITH SBCAPE POTENTIALLY NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL 700-500 LAPSE RATES
FORECAST TO STEEPEN TO AT LEAST 6.5C/KM. THE GREATEST THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT WILL ALSO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO HIGH PWATS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE
OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HEAT
INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH 100 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. HEAT INDICES WILL BE
CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS...SO WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WED NIGHT 500HPA FLOW REMAINS FM OH VLY TO MAINE. THE REAL SFC
CDFNT IS STILL IN OTTAWA VLY TO CINCINNATI...AND NOT MOVING EAST
VERY QUICKLY. FURTHER EAST AT THE SFC THE BERMUDA HIGH WHILE WELL
OFFSHORE SHORE CONTINUES TO PUMP MUGGY AIR AHEAD OF CDFNT OVER THE
ENTIRE E SEABOARD. IN FCA TD ARE NR OR ABOVE 70F IN MOST AREAS.
WED AFTN`S CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVNG BUT WEAKEN WITH END
OF DIURNAL HEATING...SO OTHER THAN CHC -SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY EVNG FCA
WILL SETTLE IN FOR A VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. LOWS AROUND 70 IN
MOST AREAS.
THU/THU NT MODEL SUITE (GEM/GFS/NAM) IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT.
A STRONG 500HPA SHORT WV EJECTS FM OHIO VLY...INTO E GRTLKS
THU...AND ACROSS NW NY/OTTAWA VLY THU NT. IT WILL PUSH CDFNT INTO
FCA THU...AND SLOWLY SOUTH TO ALONG THE ATLC COAST 12UTC FRI.
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS...1000-2500 J/KG CAPE REMAIN OVER
FCA...AHEAD OF CDFNT. PWAT REMAINS NR 2.0 AHEAD OF CDFNT...SO
SHOULD GENERATE VERY HEALTHY IF SUB SEVERE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HVY DOWNPOURS. SPC HAS FCA ONLY IN SEE TEXT FOR
DAY THREE...MAINLY FAR SE WHICH LOOKS GOOD GIVEN CDFNT TIMING. THE
REST OF THE AREAS WILL SEE A HUMID CLOUDY DAY WITH FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD -SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY SE. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN SEE THE
80S IN MOST AREAS THU.
TEMPS AND TD WILL FINALLY START TRENDING DOWNWARD LATE THU NT
NW...AND OVER REST OF FCA FRI AS CDFNT PUSHES THRU ENTIRE AREA.
MINS THU NT WILL BE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
FRIDAY MORNING THE CDFNT IS ALONG THE ATLC COAST INTERACTING WITH
TC ARTHUR LOCATED NR CAPE HAT. ALL GUIDANCE...NHC TRACK BRING 500 HPA
TROF ACROSS NE FRI...AND EJECT TC FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP
MOST OF ITS IMPACTS OUT OF FCA...EXCEPT ENHANCING MOISTURE NR CDFNT
IN FAR SE FCA LATE THU NT AND FRI MORNING.
CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVER MOST AREA FRI MORNING W/MODELS SPEEDING THIS
UP OVER PREVIOUS RUNS. HWVR WITH TC OFFSHORE...CDFNT NOT TO FAR OFF
COAST...CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTN IN FAR SE ALONG WITH
THREAT OF -SHRA. BY DAYS END LARGE CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL HAVE
BUILT OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLC. MUCH LESS HUMID AND
COOLER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION BY EVENING...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A DRY...SEASONABLE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. FRI HIGHS WILL
BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HPC/GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT...FRI NT 500 HPA TROF
MOVES ACROSS RGN...AND IS THEN DEEPENED WELL OFFSHORE AS IT
INTERACTS WITH TC ARTHUR. LARGE SFC HI BUILDS IN ITS WAKE FM
MIDWEST INTO NORTHEAST SAT...SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND IS ABSORBED
INTO BERMUDA HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FCA WILL SEE A DRY SEASONABLE
4TH WEEKEND.
WAA INCRG OVER FCA SUN NT INTO MON. GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS INCRG CHC
TSTMS/SHRA W/WK WMFNT SUN NT OR MON. HPC KEEPS THIS THREAT AT BAY
TIL AT LEAST TUES WHEN IT SHOWS A CDFNT REACHING UPPER GRTLKS TO
UPPER OTTAWA VLY. GIVEN DIURNAL CYCLE...INCRG LLVL MOISTURE AND A
VARIETY OF LLVL BOUNDARIES AROUND...WILL MENTION AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS
MON AND TUES IN EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. OTRW WILL POPULATE WITH
HPC.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INDICATING VCSH AT KGFL AND KALB THROUGH ABOUT 02Z-03Z BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. PUT A TEMPO FOR A THUNDERSTORM AT KGFL BETWEEN 00Z-
01Z WITH POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT. AFTER THE STORMS
TRACK THROUGH...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THEN...AFTER 03Z-06Z SOME MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND KPSF...BUT POSSIBLY AT KPOU AND
KALB AS WELL. AFTER 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS RETURN...BUT WILL HAVE TO
LOOK FOR TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. VERY UNCERTAIN ON HOW LATE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SO NOT
PUTTING IN TAFS YET.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10-12 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT
KALB/KPSF DURING THE EVENING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY AROUND 2-6 KT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW
TO NEAR 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY WARM...HUMID FLOW OF AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THURSDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION MIDWEEK...AND RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RESULT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL FALL TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...AND AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WEDNESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...AS
PWATS HOVER BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES. ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...RESULTING IN PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND MINOR FLOODING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
PRECIPITATION JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...NOW PARKED JUST TO
OUR NW...DIED DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN KY EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS LACK OF GOOD FORCING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD STILL
DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...SO CHOSE
TO LEAVE IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. BY THIS MORNING...INCREASING
TEMPS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO POP UP ONCE MORE. DO HAVE A FEW CONCERNS
HOWEVER. FIRST IS THE GENERAL DIRECTIONAL FLOW. THERE IS HIGH WATER
CONTENT...BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH VERY LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME DECENT SPEED SHEAR...SO
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO HAVE A DECENT
RATE OF SPEED...DROP SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND MAYBE A
FEW GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL AS THEY QUICKLY PULSE DOWN.
THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE MODEL AGREEMENT FOR POPS...AND ALSO HOW
THEY LINE UP WITH THE CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BASED ON THE LATEST FRONTAL ANALYSIS...THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN KY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.
WRLY WINDS...INCLUDING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WILL BEGIN PULLING IN
EVEN DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA BY 18Z BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THAT BEING SAID...BOTH THE NAM12 AND HRRR HAVE HARDLY ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS KY...AND WHAT DOES WILL BE EAST OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL QPF TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT...BUT MUCH LIGHTER IN NATURE. ACCORDING TO THIS
SOLUTION THE BEST CONVECTION WILL STILL BE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND
PIN POINTED OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF FAR EASTERN KY. THE GFS IS THE
OUTLIER AND PUTS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AND EVEN
INTO CENTRAL KY...INCLUDING AREAS THAT ARE POST FRONTAL. WITH ALL OF
THIS IN MIND...WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND AND THEN DID SOME EDITING TO
GEAR MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF THINKING...WITH SCATTERED POPS POSSIBLE
OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION POST FRONTAL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF.
POPS WILL CONTINUE TO DIE DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE STATE AND THEN BECOMES STALLED
OUT ONCE MORE. KEPT MENTION OF POPS IN FAR EASTERN KY THROUGH THURS
MORNING AS A RESULT OF THIS DELAYED MOVEMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S...WITH THE COOLEST AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA CORRESPONDING
WITH EXPECTED LATE NIGHT CLEARING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH GENERAL FLOW PULLING IN FROM THE NW...ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
THE MODELS ARE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN
ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL
TRANSLATE A SEASONABLY DEEP GREAT LAKES TROUGH EAST INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES AS IT FILLS. IN THE PROCESS...IT MANAGES TO PICK UP
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR CURRENTLY RATED AS A TROPICAL STORM BUT
FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST A STRONG CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST AND MOST REASONABLE WITH THIS
INTERACTION AND LIKEWISE SLOWS THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY. NEVERTHELESS...EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE SPARED ANY
MOISTURE OR PCPN FROM THIS AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. RISING HEIGHTS DURING THIS PROCESS WILL KEEP THE
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM CAUSING ANY TROUBLE FOR OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL FLATTEN
AND KENTUCKY WILL BE AT THE MERCY OF WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...AND BEYOND. ONE OF
THESE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LOWER HEIGHTS LOCALLY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY HEADS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ANOTHER WAVE FOLLOWS IN THE WEAK FLOW FOR LATER
TUESDAY AND SHOULD HELP TRIGGER MORE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST. AFTER FAVORING THE ECMWF
INITIALLY...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD A MODEL BLEND FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A MUCH WELCOMED AREA OF COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS HIGH BRINGS TEMPERATURES A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
FROM THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS QUICKLY SETS THE STAGE FOR A
RETURN OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES PEAK TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ALONG WITH THE STORM CHANCES...THE HEAT
WILL RETURN WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
DURING THE NEW WORK WEEK.
THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS EACH AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY TO
TUESDAY TO REFLECT THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. ALSO...
TWEAKED THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIDGE
TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MAKING THEIR WAY
ACROSS EASTERN KY...BUT HAVE WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY.
KSME AND KLOZ SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR FROM ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...MINUS A FEW STRAY SPRINKLES THAT MAY MOVE INTO
THE REGION. KJKL AND KSJS SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR OVER THE NEXT HALF
HOUR. WHILE SOME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER TO KEEP THE ONLY FOG ACROSS THE REGION CONFINED
TO THE DEEPEST VALLEYS AND IN THE FORM OF SHORT LIVED STEAM FOG.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN
KY JUST AHEAD OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION
OF STORMS IS STILL UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME...BUT DO EXPECT THEM TO DIE
DOWN BY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A DRIER AIRMASS
MOVING INTO PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
156 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
AS WAS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS CONTINUING A DIMINISHING TREND AS THEY TREK ACROSS
THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID...THEY ARE MOVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY OUTLINED IN THE POP GRIDS. UPDATED TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT TIMING AND COVERAGE TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ALSO UPDATED THE SKY COVER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS INTO THE ONGOING FORECAST TO MAKE SURE TEMPS...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS JIVED WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1111 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AS EVIDENCED
BY THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS ON THE IR SATELLITE AS WELL AS THE RADAR
TRENDS. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS AND SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY NORTH OF I-64 AND A QUICK DOWNWARD TREND
FURTHER SOUTHEAST. UPDATES ARE OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OHIO DOWN THROUGH NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE OUT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND SOME MID-LEVEL FORCING MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND TO THIS
LINE IN THE PAST HOUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK...WHERE
SHEAR AND FORCING ARE WEAKER. THERE ARE STILL SOME EMBEDDED STRONGER
CELLS FROM DAY TO SDF. THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF HRRR RUNS CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN THIS LINE AS IT HEADS EAST...REACHING OUR BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES IN THE 02 TO 03Z TIME FRAME. HAVE INCREASED POPS NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY BASED ON THE RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AND MAINTAINED A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH...WHERE STORMS WILL LIKELY FALL APART BEFORE
REACHING THESE AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A STRONG CAP HAS KEPT CONVECTION AT BAY DESPITE INCREASING
INSTABILITY WITH LI/S DOWN TO -8 TO -10 AND CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000
J/KG. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ACROSS THE OH RIVER FROM EVV TO
SDF THIS AFTERNOON FAILED TO INITIATE CONVECTION...EVIDENCE OF THE
CAP. IT APPEARS THE CAP WILL ERODE FIRST OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT HOLD ON IN THE SOUTH INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM AND HRRR HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB
BY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OH VALLEY TODAY. AS SUCH
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HRRR FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR EARLY
TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THE HRRR IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL FINALLY
INITIATE TO OUR WEST AND NW THIS EVENING AS REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER MO AND KS MOVES EAST. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE ENE TONIGHT...WITH THE NW PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE RANGE IN THE NW FOR TONIGHT WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH REMAINS OVER IN AND OH THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
PASSES. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER COULD HOLD
ON AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WE SHOULD BE DONE WITH PRECIPITATION
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SOME COOL
NIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
WEAK. BY MONDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY CREEP NORTH WHICH COULD
PROVIDE FUEL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT AGAIN...MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A BETTER CHANCE OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH MONDAY. BETTER
SHOT OF A SHOWER POPPING UP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT EVEN
THEN...CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
BY MONDAY AS AIR MASS MODERATES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MAKING THEIR WAY
ACROSS EASTERN KY...BUT HAVE WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY.
KSME AND KLOZ SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR FROM ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...MINUS A FEW STRAY SPRINKLES THAT MAY MOVE INTO
THE REGION. KJKL AND KSJS SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR OVER THE NEXT HALF
HOUR. WHILE SOME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER TO KEEP THE ONLY FOG ACROSS THE REGION CONFINED
TO THE DEEPEST VALLEYS AND IN THE FORM OF SHORT LIVED STEAM FOG.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN
KY JUST AHEAD OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION
OF STORMS IS STILL UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME...BUT DO EXPECT THEM TO DIE
DOWN BY EVENING WITH LOS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A DRIER AIRMASS
MOVING INTO PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1231 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
AS WAS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS CONTINUING A DIMINISHING TREND AS THEY TREK ACROSS
THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID...THEY ARE MOVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY OUTLINED IN THE POP GRIDS. UPDATED TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT TIMING AND COVERAGE TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ALSO UPDATED THE SKY COVER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS INTO THE ONGOING FORECAST TO MAKE SURE TEMPS...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS JIVED WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1111 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AS EVIDENCED
BY THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS ON THE IR SATELLITE AS WELL AS THE RADAR
TRENDS. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS AND SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY NORTH OF I-64 AND A QUICK DOWNWARD TREND
FURTHER SOUTHEAST. UPDATES ARE OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OHIO DOWN THROUGH NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE OUT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND SOME MID-LEVEL FORCING MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND TO THIS
LINE IN THE PAST HOUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK...WHERE
SHEAR AND FORCING ARE WEAKER. THERE ARE STILL SOME EMBEDDED STRONGER
CELLS FROM DAY TO SDF. THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF HRRR RUNS CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN THIS LINE AS IT HEADS EAST...REACHING OUR BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES IN THE 02 TO 03Z TIME FRAME. HAVE INCREASED POPS NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY BASED ON THE RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AND MAINTAINED A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH...WHERE STORMS WILL LIKELY FALL APART BEFORE
REACHING THESE AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A STRONG CAP HAS KEPT CONVECTION AT BAY DESPITE INCREASING
INSTABILITY WITH LI/S DOWN TO -8 TO -10 AND CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000
J/KG. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ACROSS THE OH RIVER FROM EVV TO
SDF THIS AFTERNOON FAILED TO INITIATE CONVECTION...EVIDENCE OF THE
CAP. IT APPEARS THE CAP WILL ERODE FIRST OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT HOLD ON IN THE SOUTH INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM AND HRRR HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB
BY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OH VALLEY TODAY. AS SUCH
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HRRR FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR EARLY
TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THE HRRR IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL FINALLY
INITIATE TO OUR WEST AND NW THIS EVENING AS REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER MO AND KS MOVES EAST. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE ENE TONIGHT...WITH THE NW PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE RANGE IN THE NW FOR TONIGHT WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH REMAINS OVER IN AND OH THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
PASSES. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER COULD HOLD
ON AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WE SHOULD BE DONE WITH PRECIPITATION
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SOME COOL
NIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
WEAK. BY MONDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY CREEP NORTH WHICH COULD
PROVIDE FUEL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT AGAIN...MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A BETTER CHANCE OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH MONDAY. BETTER
SHOT OF A SHOWER POPPING UP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT EVEN
THEN...CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
BY MONDAY AS AIR MASS MODERATES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND LOOK TO REACH THOSE LOCATIONS BETWEEN 02 AND
03Z. ANY STORMS WILL BRING TEMPORARY MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES...WHERE
STORM CHANCES ARE LOWER. THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF MVFR FOG
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z DEPENDING ON CLEARING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A THREAT OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
134 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
WITH A LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN NEAR JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS /WITH
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/ HAVE DEVELOPS OVER WRN UPPER MI AND
EXTEND BACK INTO NWRN WI WHERE GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE. THE LAKE BREEZE CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR
MOVING ONSHORE OVER ERN MARQUETTE/WRN ALGER COUNTIES...AND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AND MOVE INLAND E OF MARQUETTE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS CAPE AND SHEAR ARE LIMITED...AND ONLY ISOLATED
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. OVERALL...STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO HRRR QPF
OUTPUT FOR POPS AS IT HAS BEEN TRACKING FAIRLY WELL TODAY. AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI THIS EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT...GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL RESULT IN THESE AREAS.
OVER NW UPPER MI...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE REGIONS FROM THE NW WINDS.
VERY DRY AIR LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW TOMORROW...ERODING
CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND
OF CLEARING THE CLOUDS OUT FASTER AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FASTER
WITH THE INTRUSION OF THE DRY AIR. HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA BY 18Z WED. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WITH TEMPS AROUND 6C
WILL PASS OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY WED...WHICH WILL KEEP INLAND
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND MOST LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS IN THE
50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
MID 30S ARE STILL LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI TO
START OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRIEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD
00-06Z THURSDAY...BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 30-40 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE DRIEST AIR WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING TO
THE SE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
N AND CENTRAL PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7C ON LIGHT
N-NNW FLOW. IN FACT...PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 70 PERCENT
OF NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY FRIDAY. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
COMMON EACH AFTERNOON UNDER LIGHT WINDS AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FROM 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.
AS FOR SPECIFICS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S ON THURSDAY...ABOUT 5F WARMER THAN THOSE REALIZED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL AROUND 5F BELOW OF SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. DRY
AIR ALLOW FOR RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON HOVERING NEAR 25 PERCENT.
ON A POSITIVE NOTE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS BELOW
10KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS NEARING 15KTS ON THE LAKE BREEZE SWINGING
IN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. A SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN ON THE WNW FLOW ALOFT
MAY BRING ABOUT A FEW CLOUDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT LIKELY
MORE NO MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
LOOK FOR THE RETURN OF SW WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH EXITS
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND A SIZABLE SFC
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR OF SHOWERS /ISOLATED TS/ FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS ON SATURDAY TO BE ADJUSTED UP A COUPLE
DEGREES...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED AND 850MB TEMPS
JUMPING UP TO 14-16C. 70S AND 80S WILL BE COMMON. THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND MAY BE A BIT WETTER. THE SPECIFICS ABOUT WHEN AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO
KEEP A LOW CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...SO WILL KEEP A GENERAL BLEND
GOING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
INSTABILITY SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ALONG SFC TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.P. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE IN THE
VICINITY OF KSAW INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA HELPS PUSH SFC TROUGH
BOUNDARY SE OF THE REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH WILL LEAD TO CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT ALL
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR AGGRESSIVELY MOVES IN WED
MORNING...LEADING TO CLEARING FROM NW TO SE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25KTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY...WITH THE MARINE LAYER HELPING TO KEEP WINDS IN CHECK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND GENERALLY UNDER 20KTS.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
PRODUCE WINDS BELOW 15KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST THIS WEEKEND...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BUT THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
FINALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
351 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
YOU KNOW ITS A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST WHEN THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS
DECIDING WHETHER OR NOT TO PLACE A SMALL AREA OF SPRINKLES OR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA FOR THIS
MORNING. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS WE
ENJOY ONE MORE DAY/NIGHT OF 10+ DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BEFORE A WARM-UP TO MORE SUMMER LIKE
READINGS BEGINS. ALTHOUGH NOT AS BREEZY AS YESTERDAY WAS...WINDS
TODAY ARE NOT EXACTLY CALM EITHER ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281
BETWEEN THE MID-MORNING AND MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THERE WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
FIRMLY SETTLES IN. FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...BREEZES
WILL BE MORE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY 10
MPH OR LESS. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT AS PLEASANT
AS IT GETS FOR EARLY JULY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
STARTING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AS OF 08Z/3AM...11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BLOTCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EVIDENT JUST OFF THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WEST...AS A COUPLE
FAIRLY SOLID BANDS OF CLOUDS BASED AROUND 10 THOUSAND FEET ARE
WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST NEB. IN
FACT...A NARROW BUT LEGITIMATE LINE OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY
DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NEB
AREA. THIS LIGHT PRECIP/CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS BEING DRIVEN BY
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION EVIDENT IN MODEL DATA ON THE
310K SURFACE (AROUND 700 MILLIBARS)...WHICH IN TURN IS TAKING
PLACE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A VERY WELL-DEFINED
(ESPECIALLY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) ALBEIT MOISTURE-STARVED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIVING TOWARD CENTRAL NEB OUT OF
SOUTHWEST SD. THIS SHORTWAVE IS ESSENTIALLY THE LAST HURRAH OF
DISTURBANCES ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH/LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE OFF TO THE
WEST...AN AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA RESIDES JUST
DOWNSTREAM FROM A 1022MB RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE NEB/SD/WY
BORDER AREA...WHICH IS PROMOTING LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES
GENERALLY UNDER 8 MPH. ALTHOUGH ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE
PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DECENT COOLING THROUGH SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 2ND AT GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS
SHOULD STAY SAFE BY A FEW DEGREES...STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
MOST FAVORED IN FAR NORTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL COUNTIES.
LOOKING FORWARD AND STARTING WITH THESE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH
SUNRISE...THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY OF THE NARROW
STRIPES OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY WEST OF THE CWA COULD POSSIBLY
CLIP FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS. THE 06Z HRRR SUGGESTS ITS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...AND FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
MAINLY FOR PARTS OF FURNAS/ROOKS COUNTIES.
GETTING INTO THE OFFICIAL DAYTIME FORECAST PERIOD 7AM-7PM...THE
BIG PICTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS INVOLVES THE CONTINUED PASSAGE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS
SLATED TO BE PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AND EVEN
STRENGTHEN A BIT BY 00Z/7PM AS IT DEPARTS INTO THE IA/IL/MO
BORDER AREA. AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY...A FAIRLY PERSISTENT ZONE OF
MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA OVER KS...LIKELY PROMOTING A DECENT COVERAGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY (ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON) ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHWESTERN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE OBVIOUS
QUESTION THEN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER OR NOT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA THIS
MORNING BEFORE THIS PRECIP EITHER FADES OR SHIFTS MORE SAFELY INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS. NO MATTER...FELT IT COULD BE A CLOSE ENOUGH CALL FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO SLIP INTO FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES THAT DECIDED TO INSERT
A TOKEN SPRINKLE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MENTION INTO
PRIMARILY THE ROOKS COUNTY AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...WHILE
LEAVING THE ENTIRE CWA VOID OF PRECIP MENTION BEYOND 18Z/1PM. NO
MATTER WHAT...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS DRY TODAY...AND
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
THOSE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY IF NOT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE SHARP
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MID CLOUD DECK. AT THE SURFACE
TODAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DRIFTING IN FROM
NORTHWEST NEB...PROMOTING THE LIGHTER WIND REGIME TODAY AS
DESCRIBED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH ABOVE. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST SEVERAL MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY...MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS...AIMING FOR MID 70S NORTHEAST TO
UPPER 70S/POSSIBLY 80 SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HANDS DOWN IT WILL THE
COOLEST DAY THE AREA WILL SEE FOR AWHILE.
TURNING TO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
RATHER HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE...ALTHOUGH AM SEEING JUST
ENOUGH OF A ANOTHER MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL FOR THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS IN THE 06Z NAM THAT WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SHOCKED
TO SEE ANOTHER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES TOWARD SUNRISE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF
THE CWA. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS
SCENARIO YET TO DISRUPT THE PRECIP-FREE FORECAST JUST YET FOR
SOMETHING OF SUCH LITTLE IMPACT...ESPECIALLY WITH A LACK OF
LARGER-SCALE LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE BIG PICTURE IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY VOID OF ANY SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES...AS MODEST HEIGHT RISES OCCUR UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE EDGING EASTWARD A BIT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE EVENING WILL START
OUT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...BEFORE
SLIDING MORE TOWARD THE MO RIVER BY SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...EVENING
BREEZES WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BEFORE A SOMEWHAT
STEADIER ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE GETS GOING LATE IN
THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEEN INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN EXPERIENCE A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...ESPECIALLY MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE LOW TEMPS END UP
NEAR THOSE OF THIS MORNING. GENERALLY NUDGED DOWN MOST AREAS 1-2
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS...RESULTING IN LOWS FORECAST TO GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 50-53 NORTHEAST AND 53-57 SOUTHWEST. AGAIN
THOUGH...RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE SHOULD BE SAFE IN THE TRI-CITIES
AREA BY ROUGHLY 4 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE WORKING INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 12Z THURSDAY...WITH LONG WAVE RIDGING THEN
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A SERIES OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OVER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI AT 12 THURSDAY. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF TO OUR
EAST...AND TROUGHING ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES...SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF A 35-40KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THIS PRECIPITATION THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
INTO OUR AREA. THIS IS A SOLUTION STILL SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS EC AND SREF-MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FOR A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY...A CONTINUED LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD
PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. HEADING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT OF YET ANOTHER 35-40KT JET
AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA...A SOLUTION ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN. WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30%
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS TRAVELING WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY MEAN
FLOW ADVANCING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...COULD BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20-
30% POPS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THESE POPS
WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMING TREND DURING MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE
LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...AND CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
90S BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ARE ALSO FORECAST DURING
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS AS A SEASONABLY
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN
FACT...ANY CLOUD COVER WHATSOEVER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED.
SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BECOME AS BREEZY DURING THE DAY AS THEY
WERE ON TUESDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST NORTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED
SPEEDS NOT EXPECTED TO AVERAGE MORE THAN 12KT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS. ON EITHER SIDE OF THE DAYTIME HOURS (BOTH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING)...WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 5KT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TO NMRS TSRA/SHRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS E
OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF SHOWERS...MAY LINGER INTO EARLY WED MORNING. EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALSO CAUSE PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED WED AFTN/NIGHT...EXCEPT
FOR ISOLD ACTIVITY W OF THE CONTDVD. WET MICROBURSTS SHOULD
PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH E OF THE CONTDVD WITH A
MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY FARTHER W. SMALL HAIL AND FQT LIGHTNING
ALSO LIKELY.
44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...244 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE WORKING INTO THE AREA
TODAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH THICKER CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT
DOWN TREND IN STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE WORKS NORTH INTO THE STATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
19Z LAPS DATA AND LATEST RADAR PICTURE SYNCING UP WELL AS THE BULK
OF THE SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONT DVD AND
THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE NORTHERN MTS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY IS POISED OVER THE PLAINS HOWEVER CLOUDS AND RESULTING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ARE SLOWING DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST HRRR AND
RUC AGREE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE DIVIDE WILL SPREAD EAST TOWARD THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SHARP
DRYLINE OVER WESTERN NM WILL FAVOR DRIER PRECIP ACTIVITY WEST OF
THE DIVIDE WITH WET/DRY ACTIVITY BTWN THE DIVIDE AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. THE SPC STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE PRODUCT INDICATES A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SOCORRO COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING THAT
DEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE HRRR INDICATES THIS CLUSTER COMING OUT OF SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO THEN RIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BLENDED
THE 2 SOLUTIONS SO MUCH OF THE EAST IS AT HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY
FOR TONIGHT.
GAP WINDS WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
FORCE THE MOISTURE SURGE MUCH FARTHER WEST INTO EASTERN ARIZONA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE THETA-E AXIS WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH STEERING FLOW FORCING ACTIVITY EAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE ABQ/SAF METRO IN THE EVENING. PWAT VALUES
FROM 1 TO 1.5 FROM WEST TO EAST AND LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SO MAINTAINED THAT WORDING THRU WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AROUND CENTRAL NM INCLUDING ABQ AND SAF IN QUITE SOME TIME.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BECOME ORIENTED
MORE WEST-EAST OVER NORTHERN NM. NORTH-SOUTH STEERING FLOW WILL
FAVOR ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN TO SLIDE INTO THE
ABQ/SAF METRO AREA. CURRENT POP GRIDS TREND CHANCES DOWN TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY HOWEVER IT WILL DEPEND
ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE FALLS THROUGH THURSDAY AND WORKS WITH STRONG
RECYCLING PROCESSES. THE GFS INDICATES A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
MOIST INSTABILITY AGAIN OVER CENTRAL NM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS
SO AGAIN STEERING FLOW WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THE ABQ/SAF AREAS.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RAMPING UP THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR/EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO ESPECIALLY FROM THE
UPPER GILA REGION SOUTH WHERE THE AIR MASS QUICKLY DESTABILIZED
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER EASTERLY PUSH. STILL CONCERN
FOR DRIER STORMS HERE WITH LIGHTNING AND MICROBURST POTENTIAL
BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THOUGH
IMPROVING MOISTURE PROFILES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.
AIR MASS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE IMPACTS
OF LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT HAVE LINGERED LONGER. STILL WATCHING FOR A
REINFORCING SURGE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE IS FORCED WESTWARD. THUS...LOOK FOR REJUVENATED EASTERLY
GAP WINDS LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADIENTS RELAX WED AM. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...DRIER DEWPOINTS LOOK TO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND WEST WITH A TREND TOWARD MORE DRY OR MIXED WET AND DRY
STORMS FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BENEATH WEAK STEERING FLOW.
RH RECOVERIES MUCH MUCH IMPROVED WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT READINGS
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERMS BUT WILL START A DOWNWARD TREND BY
TUESDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND UPWARD WEDNESDAY AS WETTING PRECIP
SHIFTS WESTWARD. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH
WETTER STORMS IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL...AND DRIER OR MIX OF WET AND
DRY ACROSS THE FAR WEST PRIMARILY FROM THE DIVIDE WESTWARD. EXPECT FAIR TO
POOR VENTILATION WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE EAST AND SPOTTY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE WEST.
THURSDAY WILL START TO SEE DIMINISHING PRECIP IN THE EAST BUT
INCREASING TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND WEST. FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION
FROM THE WEST TO THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY BUT GOOD TO EXCELLENT
IN THE EAST. BY FRIDAY JULY 4TH...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL AREAS...WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
NEAR NORMAL AREA WIDE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES UNTIL TUESDAY. 32
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
404 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
CORRESPONDINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT WILL BEAR DOWN ON THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE
TOLERABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH CAPE 1000-2000 AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KTS WHICH IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE STORMS AS
THEY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THE STORMS HAVE FORMED ON BOTH A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDING NORTH FROM CONVECTION IN OHIO.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FEEDING ON THE UNSTABLE AIR TO THE EAST. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHIFTS
THE STORMS EAST AND SOUTH OF SYRACUSE BY 08-10Z. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...SUPPORTED BY THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. WITH A STILL HUMID AIRMASS AND PWATS AROUND 1.25 -1.5
INCHES EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN FORM AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
LIFT WITH THE LIKELIEST AREAS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY
AND POINTS EASTWARD...WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOME ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...LEAVING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEARS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES A SHOWER MAY CLIP FAR NORTHERN NIAGARA
FRONTIER.
GIVEN THE DIURNALLY ASSISTED INSTABILITY OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
HAVE ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING (HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS) TO THE FORECAST.
IT WILL STILL BE ON THE HOT AND MUGGY SIDE WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
80S ACROSS THE REGION. ROCHESTER AND PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY
MAY REACH THE 90F MARK AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SEND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCY IN HOW THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH
INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TO HAVE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS...ALBEIT LOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT FINALLY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW YORK.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BURGEONING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE ARTHUR LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTLINES...WITH ITS
EFFECTS REMAINING WELL EAST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BEAUTIFUL INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY...WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE COMBINING WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +8C TO
+10C TO YIELD DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...THIS WILL RESULT IN
A VERY COMFORTABLE DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
THEN MAKING FOR EQUALLY COMFORTABLE SLEEPING CONDITIONS ONCE THE
HOLIDAY CELEBRATIONS CONCLUDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER...AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. EXPECT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...WITH THE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THEN
GRADUALLY MIXING IN ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES ALOFT.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...COMFORTABLE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ON SATURDAY WILL
CLIMB TO PLEASANTLY WARM LEVELS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY
AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETS UP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME THOUGH...HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS...WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY
SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE 50S.
LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREADING OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
GIVEN THE GENERAL INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...AND THAT THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...FOR
NOW HAVE ELECTED TO JUST COVER THE LATTER WITH BROADBRUSH LOWER-END
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF TSRA IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING. GENERALLY EXPECT THESE TO BE
POSSIBLE AT KJHW/KROC/KART THROUGH 06Z. KIAG IS CLEAR OF TSRA AND
KBUF WILL BE CLEAR BY 05Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE SRN TIER
BETWEEN ABOUT 08 AND 12Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME
WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES.
FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONT...THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL
FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE 2AM
THEN GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES ON BOTH LAKES WITH WAVES
AVERAGING 1 TO 3 FEET.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESHENING WINDS THAT COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THIS
WOULD BE ON LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF
ROCHESTER.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...JJR/TMA
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/SMITH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1241 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
CORRESPONDINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT WILL BEAR DOWN ON THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE
TOLERABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH CAPE 1000-2000 AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KTS WHICH IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE STORMS AS
THEY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THE STORMS HAVE FORMED ON BOTH A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDING NORTH FROM CONVECTION IN OHIO.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FEEDING ON THE UNSTABLE AIR TO THE EAST. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHIFTS
THE STORMS EAST AND SOUTH OF SYRACUSE BY 08-10Z. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...SUPPORTED BY THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. WITH A STILL HUMID AIRMASS AND PWATS AROUND 1.25 -1.5
INCHES EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN FORM AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
LIFT WITH THE LIKELIEST AREAS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY
AND POINTS EASTWARD...WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOME ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...LEAVING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEARS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES A SHOWER MAY CLIP FAR NORTHERN NIAGARA
FRONTIER.
GIVEN THE DIURNALLY ASSISTED INSTABILITY OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
HAVE ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING (HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS) TO THE FORECAST.
IT WILL STILL BE ON THE HOT AND MUGGY SIDE WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
80S ACROSS THE REGION. ROCHESTER AND PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY
MAY REACH THE 90F MARK AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY OOZING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS
FEATURE WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER TIME...THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND INCREASING NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION WARRANTS ONLY DIMINISHING CHANCE POPS AT THIS
PARTICULAR TIME. FURTHER WEST ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THE BULK
OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...THOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL STRAY
SHOWERS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. TEMPERATURE-WISE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL ALLOW NIGHTTIME LOWS
TO FALL BACK TO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE...MAKING FOR SOMEWHAT MORE
COMFORTABLE SLEEPING CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS.
ON THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...IN RESPONSE TO TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR
WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AND SYNOPTIC-
SCALE LIFT INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF A
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...
THIS LINGERING BOUNDARY SHOULD AGAIN ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE WILL BE FOUND ALONG OUR
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY...WHERE LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND WHERE SOME
LOW LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN PLACE...WHILE PROGRESSIVELY LOWER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT. GIVEN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME WEAK INSTABILITY STEMMING FROM DAYTIME
HEATING...A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD TO LEWIS
COUNTY. ALL OF THIS WILL THEN QUICKLY WIND DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND HIGH PRESSURE/
DRIER AIR OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
TREND TOWARD COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...DEWPOINTS
WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BURGEONING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE ARTHUR LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE
OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTLINES...WITH ITS EFFECTS
REMAINING WELL EAST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A BEAUTIFUL INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY...WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE COMBINING WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +8C TO +10C TO
YIELD DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY
COMFORTABLE DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S THEN MAKING
FOR EQUALLY COMFORTABLE SLEEPING CONDITIONS ONCE THE HOLIDAY
CELEBRATIONS CONCLUDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER...AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. EXPECT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...WITH THE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THEN
GRADUALLY MIXING IN ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES ALOFT.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...COMFORTABLE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ON SATURDAY WILL
CLIMB TO PLEASANTLY WARM LEVELS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY
AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETS UP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME THOUGH...HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS...WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY
SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE 50S.
LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREADING OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
GIVEN THE GENERAL INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...AND THAT THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...FOR
NOW HAVE ELECTED TO JUST COVER THE LATTER WITH BROADBRUSH LOWER-END
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF TSRA IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING. GENERALLY EXPECT THESE TO BE
POSSIBLE AT KJHW/KROC/KART THROUGH 06Z. KIAG IS CLEAR OF TSRA AND
KBUF WILL BE CLEAR BY 05Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE SRN TIER
BETWEEN ABOUT 08 AND 12Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME
WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES.
FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONT...THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL
FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE 2AM
THEN GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES ON BOTH LAKES WITH WAVES
AVERAGING 1 TO 3 FEET.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESHENING WINDS THAT COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THIS
WOULD BE ON LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF
ROCHESTER.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/SMITH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER SKY COVER/GRIDS
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA
WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. UPSTREAM...OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA...THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP IS SHOWING AN EXPANDING AREA
OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS BASED AT 5000FT-6000FT. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
THE 850MB-750MB LAYER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA APPEARS TO BE
THE MAIN DRIVER FOR VERTICAL MOTION AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE
NAM/GFS RH TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AS WELL AS THE HRRR CLOUD
BASE HEIGHT/CEILING FORECAST...ALL PAINT A SCT/BKN 5KFT STRATIFORM
CLOUD DECK FOR MOST OF THE WEST THIS MORNING. THIS TRANSITIONS TO
A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SIMILAR AREA
DEVELOPS OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY MID MORNING...THEN EXPANDS
SOUTHEAST JUST GRAZING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE HIGHEST
CLOUD COVERAGE...AND THUS A MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
HERE. PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WEST WILL BE THE GOING FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM CROSBY THIS MORNING INTO
JAMESTOWN BY 00Z THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE BE IN THE
70S TODAY. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT SCT CLOUDS WITH WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD THURSDAY WITH A MODERATE AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER CANADA
BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING OVER
THE TOP OF THE NOW FLATTENED RIDGE WHICH IS SITUATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THUS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 00 UTC WED 2 JULY GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATE A SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MUCAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA BY 00 UTC SATURDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK CAP HANGING ON BETWEEN 850
AND 700 MB AT KBIS AND KJMS FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
LIMITED CAPPING FROM KDIK AND KISN UP THROUGH KMOT. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON THE 4TH
GIVEN THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TEMPER SLIGHTLY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE OUR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT
WITH ANY STORM...BUT A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR WITH SCT/BKN CLOUDS AT 5KFT...ESPECIALLY AT
KISN/KDIK. SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT 5KT TO 10KT AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST
WEEKEND CREATED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORAGE AT BOTH ALAMEDA
DAM AND LAKE DARLING. RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM WILL INCREASE OVER
THE COMING DAYS...THUS INCREASING THE RELEASES DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE
DARLING. THIS...COMBINED WITH LOCAL RUNOFF...WILL CAUSE THE SOURIS
RIVER TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...KS/JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASING BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE SC
COASTLINE MID TO LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
FRIDAY...SWEEPING ARTHUR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM EDT UPDATE...LINE OF MCS CONVECTION TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AND WILL NOT WARRANT A POP UPGRADE ACROSS THE
WRN NC ZONES. SOME LLVL STCU IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A SFC CONVERGENCE
ZONE ACROSS THE SE/RN CWFA AND WILL MONITOR THIS FOR SKY/TEMP ADJ/S
AND POSSIBLE AVIATION CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...THE FCST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO T/TD GRIDS.
1015 PM UPDATE...FEW CHANGES EXCEPT FOR MINOR REVISIONS TO THE
OVERNIGHT SKY TRENDS AND TEMPS...THE LATTER INCORPORATING VALUES
FROM OUR SHORT-TERM MODEL CONSENSUS PRODUCT. DID INCREASE SKY COVER
SLIGHTLY IN THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE DEBRIS
FROM THE MCS MOVING THRU THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THIS MCS IS DIMINISHING
IN ORGANIZATION AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH STEAM TO AFFECT
OUR CWFA. AS SPC NOTED IN MCD 1250 ABOUT AN HOUR AGO...IT IS MOVING
INTO A MORE STABLE AREA AND AWAY FROM THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT. THE
00Z HRRR DOES DEVELOP A LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE MCS WHICH
MAKES A RUN AT THE SRN NC MTNS...BUT IT FADES UPON REACHING THEM.
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG RIDGES IN EAST TN. NOT SURE
IF THESE ARE WHAT THE HRRR IS RESOLVING BUT AT THIS TIME A DRY
OVERNIGHT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD IN LIGHT OF OTHER GUID.
730 PM UPDATE...DROPPED POPS THIS EVENING AS THE CU FIELD HAS MOSTLY
DWINDLED...WITH THE MESO MODELS THAT PRODUCE PRECIP STILL HAVING
FAILED TO VERIFY. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LLVL CONVERGENCE AND
MODEST MOISTURE IN THE SAME LAYER OVER THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
TONIGHT AND SOME OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS DEVELOP SHOWERS DUE TO
THESE CONDITIONS AND LINGERING INSTABILITY. ESP GIVEN THE POOR
PERFORMANCE THIS AFTN...IT DOES NOT SEEM PLAUSIBLE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
OVERNIGHT POPS IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME.
FOR TOMORROW...EXPECTATIONS ARE LARGELY THE SAME WITH UPWARDS OF
3000 J/KG SBCAPE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN PER 15Z SREF AND 18Z
NAM/GFS...WITH WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AS OUTLINED BY DAY SHIFT BELOW.
REVISED POP TRENDS MOSTLY TO BETTER HIGHLIGHT PROPAGATION FROM THE
MTNS TO THE PIEDMONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
AS OF 220 PM EDT TUESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD
IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A RATHER POTENT POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE
PARENT SURFACE LOW WHICH IS CURRENT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO.
EXPECTING THIS ENTIRE COMPLEX TO SLIDE EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE OHIO TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER UNEVENTFUL
OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN AND AROUND
THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER ACTIVE AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH A PREFRONTAL LEE TROF
DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AND THE
SURFACE RIDGE ERODES...SO WILL ANY INHIBITION TO CONVECTION.
GUIDANCE HAS COME TO A CONSENSUS REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BOTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW PLOTS INDICATE A POTENT WARM
SECTOR AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH 6-8 DEGREE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES YIELDING SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY...UPWARDS OF 3000J/KG ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT REGIONS OF NC AND SC. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
RATHER WEAK WHICH COULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY THAT WILL BE PRESENT
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DEEP UPDRAFTS LEADING TO LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THUS...WILL KEEP PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION IN HWO FOR THE ENTIRE REGION ON WEDNESDAY MENTIONING THE
ABOVE THREATS. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE LOW/MID
90S ACROSS THE LOW TERRAIN WITH MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS
PUSHING THE MID/UPPER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUE...AN UPPER TROF AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THU
THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRI. THE TROF WILL PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
INTO THE AREA THU THEN EAST OF THE AREA FRI. THIS TROF WILL ALSO
KEEP ARTHUR WELL EAST OF OUR CWFA NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE RESULTANT EXPECTED WEATHER...ESPECIALLY ON THU.
SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS MUCH OF THE AREA DRY WITH BEST INSTABILITY AND
PRECIP CHANCES NEAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR...WHILE OTHERS SHOW GOOD
INSTABILITY OVER ALL BUT THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND SWRN NC
MTNS. GUIDANCE BLEND FAVORS THE WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE SCENARIO...
SO HAVE GONE THAT DIRECTION FOR POP. CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE STORMS AS GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MID
LEVEL DRY AIR AND HIGH CAPE VALUES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE.
HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO BE OVER THE ERN CWFA. LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WED NITE AND NEAR NORMAL THU.
WITH THE TROF AXIS AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
FRI...DRY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. EVEN THO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH...LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS
MID LEVELS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...EXPECT A DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUE...FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES EXPANDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL KEEP POPS BELOW CLIMO AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE EDGE OF THE HIGH. PROFILES WILL MOISTEN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
TRIGGERS A SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW...SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES. WITH AN OTHERWISE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IN
PLACE AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...POPS WILL
FOLLOW A NORMAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL TREND EARLY IN THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...MODERATING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...MOISTURE LIMITED FEW STCU IS DEVELOPING IN THE VCNTY OF THE
TERMINAL ALIGNED IS A WEAK SFC CONV ZONE. NOT ENUF EXPECTED COVERAGE
TO WARRANT A TAF MENTION AND EARLY MORNING FG POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW.
PROB30 TSTMS LATER ARND 21Z WITH POSSIBLE COLD POOL MAINTAINED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH CAPE AND DECENT MLVL LR/S SOME
CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS AND LARGE
HAIL.
ELSEWHERE...KAVL WILL BE THE ONLY SITE TO WARRANT A FLIGHT
RESTRICTION FOR 5SM VSBY AFT 8Z. MOISTURE FLUX IS LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A WEAK SFC BNDRY INDUCED BY SE/LY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
GENERATE BLUE RIDGE CONVECTION IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ATMOS. THESE
STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND AFFECT MAINLY THE NC
SITES...HOWEVER THE UPSTATE MAY EXPERIENCE VCTS. SO...PROB30 TSTMS
OF WHICH SOME COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS ARND 18Z/19Z AT KHKY AND
KAVL.
OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. LIGHT
EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS FROM LOW STRATUS OR FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT SOME SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 97% HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 97% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VISIN
NEAR TERM...CDG/SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...VISIN
AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1146 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
BETWEEN 5 AND 9 AM AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS MOST
LIKELY AT MORE RURAL TAF SITES.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT I DID NOT PUT THEM IN
TAFS BECAUSE MOST FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE
MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. 44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS WANED AND AM EXPECTING THE FEW REMAINING SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. COVERAGE WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN
FCST WITH SOME 2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS OVER PARTS OF HARRIS COUNTY
AND EVEN SOME PEA SIZE HAIL NEAR ELDRIDGE PKWY AND HWY 290. PW
VALUES ROSE TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES AROUND 21Z AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 90S WERE REACHED DURING THE AFTN. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH UPPER
WINDS AT CRP OUT OF THE NE. WINDS AT LCH WERE SW IN RESPONSE TO A
MID LATITUDE TROUGH PUSHING EAST. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WERE DIVERGENT
OVER SE TX AND THIS COUPLED WITH MODEST MSTR WAS ENOUGH TO GET
CONVECTION GOING LATE THIS AFTN.
AT 00Z...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH A
WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SE OK TO KSPS TO AN AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE BIG BEND. AT 850 MB...A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS NOTED
ALONG THE RED RIVER WITH A CORRIDOR OF DEEPER MSTR FROM NORTH
TEXAS TO THE DELMARVA AREA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NOTED OVER SE
TX WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING EAST.
THE UPPER FEATURES DON`T CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO
STILL EXPECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON WEDNESDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH MSTR WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT THE 18Z NAM AND GFS ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH MSTR WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO 1.83 INCHES
(GFS). THE HI RES ARW IS AGGRESSIVE WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
OVER EAST TEXAS AND THEN MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE HOUSTON AREA
DURING THE EVENING. THIS SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z GFS. THE
TEXAS TECH 3 KM WRF AND HRRR DID A GREAT JOB WITH TODAYS
CONVECTION BUT THE WRF HAS NOT COME IN AND THE HRRR DOES NOT GO
OUT FAR ENOUGH TO BE MUCH HELP. WILL AWAIT 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE
MAKING CHANGES BUT POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE A BIT HIGHER TOMORROW...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS FOR TONIGHT...DEW
PTS ARE VERY HIGH SO RAISED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO NEAR THE
COAST AND TWEAKED SKY GRIDS. WILL SEND OUT NEW ZONES ONCE THE
CONVECTION OVER GRIMES COUNTY DISSIPATES. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 95 75 94 74 / 10 10 20 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 77 94 76 95 76 / 10 10 20 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 89 79 90 79 / 10 10 20 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
231 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY ON THE EAST SIDE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE FRONT
WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
HURRICANE ARTHUR OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. DRIER AND COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...
MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FAILED
TO MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THANKS TO A SIGNIFICANT
WARM NOSE IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SIGNIFICANT
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED NORTH OF I-66 FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW
SHOWERS TRIED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN
CARROLL/FLOYD...BUT DISSIPATED QUICKLY WITH TOPS AOB 20KFT. SPOKE
WITH SPC...AND PLAN IS TO DROP SEVERE OUTLOOK WITH 01Z UPDATE.
CURRENT RISK IS VERY LOW ACCORDING TO SPC AS IT WAS BASED ON
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LACK OF
CU/DEVELOPMENT HAS PRECLUDED SEVERE THREAT. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY NOW IN KY/OH TO REACH WV TOWARD
DAYBREAK IN THE FORM OF DIMINISHING CONVECTION WITH A MINIMAL WIND
THREAT. GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WED
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH ALSO BETTER THREAT
FOR SEVERE AT THAT TIME AS WELL WITH AIR MASS STILL MODERATELY TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS/SHEAR ALSO IN PLACE AT
THAT TIME. WED STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
THE SEVERE/FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR OUR CWA.
MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO NEAR TERM TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...WITH DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ADVERTISED...BUT HEAT INDICES STILL MANAGEABLE AND ALL BELOW
100F.
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...
BOTH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE HAVE BEEN MAKING
THEIR WAY EASTWARD WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WE ARE
EXPECTING THE DEVELOPMENT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE AMPLE...PARCELS WILL BE FIGHTING
A WARM NOSE JUST ABOVE 700 MB. HOWEVER...ONCE PENETRATED...THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF CAPE TO WORK WITH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION. CURRENTLY...SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
HAS STARTED JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SAME IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SOON OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH A FOCUS OF ACTIVITY ALONG
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
A CHALLENGE FOR THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER HEADING SOUTH INTO
THE AREA...FOLLOWING THE OUTFLOW DENSITY CURRENT OF ONGOING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. THE 16Z/NOON HRRR MODEL IS OFFERING A
SOLUTION THAT EXPANDS CONVECTION NEAR PA/MD/WV INTO A THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER THAT HEADS QUICKLY SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
IMPACTS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION AROUND SUNSET...AND THEN
CONTINUES SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH 100 AM
WEDNESDAY. CURIOUSLY ENOUGH...THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MODEL
HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH THIS POTENTIAL EVOLUTION BASED UPON
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT THE
OPERATIONAL NAM ALSO GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO THIS SOLUTION...WILL BE
REFLECT THIS EVENT IN OUR FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE AT THIS POINT.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DRAW
CLOSER TO THE AREA AND PROVIDE FOR GREATER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION AS COMPARED TO THE SCENARIO TODAY. SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF BUCKINGHAM COUNTY VA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SPC INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY2
OUTLOOK. VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG HEATING LEADING TO 2000-3000 J/KG
MLCAPE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH STRONGER
UPDRAFTS DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
DECENT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING MODERATE SHEAR AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SUPPORT THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS. THE OTHER
CONCERN IS THAT THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE CLOSE TO A HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN BUCKINGHAM COUNTY. THE COVERAGE IS TOO LIMITED IN AREA
AND TIME FOR ANY HEAT HEADLINES. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY WITH CONVECTION. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
ON THURSDAY...OUR AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A SECOND EJECTING SHORT
WAVE FROM THE MIDWEST TROUGH AND TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVING
NORTHEAST UP CAROLINA COAST. WHILE TROPICAL STORM ITSELF DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY TO GIVE US DIRECT IMPACT BASED ON CURRENT CONSENSUS
TRACKS...THE ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT AND
MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITH
CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY NEED FOR FLASH FLOOD
HEADLINES WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL FORECASTED TO OUR NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...ANY TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING
ISSUES. WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ADJMETBC HIGHS THURSDAY WITH
VALUES FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY...ARTHUR WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
AND BE LOCATED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE BLACKSBURG CWA...BUT WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE PIEDMONT AREAS FOR LINGERING HEAVY
RAINFALL...AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS POINT DESPITE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. NHC TRACK IS CLOSER TO GFS INSTEAD OF THE SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION. IN ANY CASE...HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST UNTIL 06Z
FRIDAY. LEANED LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ADJMAVBC FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE
EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE AS IT
TRACKS NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR THE EAST COAST DURING THE PERIOD.
CONSULT NHC PRODUCTS FOR THE LATEST INFO REGARDING T.S. ARTHUR.
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY AND REACHES THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DECREASED POPS FRIDAY MORNING GOING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PLAYED
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER
80S IN THE EAST. A PLEASANT FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL PRODUCE A DELIGHTFUL SATURDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...SOME RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO HIGHS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
WEST. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.
WITH DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE...MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH READINGS
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE
PIEDMONT ON MONDAY TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE EAST TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. ANY IMPACT WOULD BE
TO KBLF...KLWB...AND AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE MTNS AND THE OUTFLOW
DISSIPATES.
SCT-BKN MID DECK EXPECTED THIS MORNING...BASES 060-080KFT...
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD
THIN MID TO LATE MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING RESULTS IN CU
FORMATION LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO-TENN VALLEYS
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND...HEAT...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITIES...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VCNTY OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH WIND CONVERGENCE THERE. WIND AND HAIL
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON TIMING...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL
TAF SITES ATTM...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO LATE IN THE DAY. MEAN WIND
TODAY IS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...SO STORMS WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEAST...FROM 240 DEGREES AT BETWEEN 15-20 MPH.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE ADVANCING FRONT AND TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS ARE LOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK
OF ARTHUR.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/RAB
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
355 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM GREEN BAY TO SIOUX FALLS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS FRONT WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE
RUNNING AROUND 4C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2 TO 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF. CURRENTLY
ABUNDANT CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION IS HELPING TO KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY COULD BE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. STRONG
OMEGA BELOW 850 MB IS HELPING GENERATING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TODAY...THE 02.00Z MODELS ARE GOOD IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOUT 1 TO 2C. HOWEVER
THIS IS STILL 1.5 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN BOTH
THE NAM AND ECMWF. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 900 TO 800 MB RANGE AND ML CAPES OF
LESS THAN 100 J/KG. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG
LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE TODAY. THE LATEST RAP HAS THE BEST LAYER
STRETCHING POTENTIAL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SO THINKING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR
FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE THERE. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND COLD AIR ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...
THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
REACHED OR EXCEEDED. MORE ON THIS WILL BE COVERED IN THE
CLIMATOLOGY SECTION OF THIS PRODUCT.
FOR TONIGHT...850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 1 TO 2 DEGREES.
THIS STILL RESULTS 850 TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET AND KEEPING THE
WINDS WELL MIXED ABOVE THE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER...THERE WILL BE NO SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER AND SHORT NIGHT MAY HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT RECORD LOWS FROM
OCCURRING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
ON THURSDAY...WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE VERY STEEP 900 TO 750 MB
LAPSE RATES. USUALLY THIS WOULD BE A CONCERN FOR STRONGER WIND
GUSTS...BUT IN THE CASE THE WINDS ALOFT ARE RATHER LIGHT BELOW
700 MB...SO ONLY EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH
RANGE. THE MAIN THING THAT THE MIXING WILL DO IS BRING DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. SINCE MOS TYPICALLY DOES NOT DO WELL IN
THESE SITUATIONS USED THE MIX DOWN TOOL TO LOWER THE DEW POINTS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 40S WHICH IS VERY DRY FOR EARLY JULY.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP LAYER /UP TO 700 MB/ OF
LIGHT WINDS. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS. BOTH CLIMATOLOGY AND MOS DEW POINT SPREADS WOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRENCE IN THE WISCONSIN AND
KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE 925 MB AND
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THUS KEPT THE EVENING DRY. WITH ARTHUR MOVING UP THE
COAST AT THIS TIME...THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE RIDGING TO THE
WEST OF THIS SYSTEM MAY SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS THE REASON WHY BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
TIMING OF THESE WAVES ARE PROBLEMATIC AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...THERE CONTINUE TO BE AN INDICATION IN THE
MODELS THAT THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 12C FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT DOES FORM TO BE ELEVATED...THUS...WE ARE NOT ABLE TO TAP INTO
THE BETTER 0-3 KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL DESPITE THE LACK OF
SUPERCELL SHEAR. AS WE MOVE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BOTH
THE WARM CLOUD LAYER AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO FOCUS IT INTO A PARTICULAR AREA WHICH
WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IS IF/WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN FOR
KRST/KLSE...POTENTIAL FOR IFR...AND THEN WHEN THEY WILL LIFT.
SREF CIG PROBS CONTINUE TO POINT TO SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR CIGS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT-MORNING HOURS...WITH LATEST SATELLITE AND SFC OBS
SUPPORTING THIS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IFR CIGS AT THIS TIME
THOUGH...AND UNSURE WHETHER THESE WILL BE REALIZED AT KRST. MAY HANG
ONTO THE MENTION FOR NOW...WITH TRENDS LEADING TO UPDATES IF NEEDED.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS START TO BRING SOME MIXING IN TOWARD LATE
MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE A CLIMB AND SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOW CIGS
DURING THAT TIME. PROBABLY A FEW HOUR PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS BEFORE
SCT/SKC CONDITIONS FOR MID/LATER AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT. WITH A
LIGHT WIND FIELD AND CLEAR SKIES WED/THU NIGHTS...SEE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR BR/FG...PROBABLY MORE SO FOR THE VALLEY LOCATION OF KLSE.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY ITS NOT A THE FAVORED TIME OF YEAR...BUT WITH
GROUNDS WELL SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...ITS SOMETHING THAT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
NOT MUCH THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LA CROSSE NORTH
TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. MEANWHILE THE FLOOD CREST ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH OF
LA CROSSE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
HERE ARE THE RECORD COLD MAXIMUM FOR TODAY.
AUSTIN MN - 68 IN 1945
CHARLES CITY IA - 67 IN 1917
DECORAH IA - 71 IN 2001
LA CROSSE - 63 IN 1892
MEDFORD WI - 61 IN 2009
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI - 67 IN 2009
RICHLAND CENTER WI - 64 IN 2009
ROCHESTER MN - 62 IN 1892
SPARTA WI - 64 IN 2009
WINONA MN - 65 IN 2009
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.
AUSTIN MN - 43 IN 1940
CHARLES CITY IA - 45 IN 1967
DECORAH IA - 41 IN 1924
LA CROSSE WI - 49 IN 1968
MEDFORD WI - 37 IN 1927
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI - 45 IN 1968
RICHLAND CENTER WI - 43 IN 1995
ROCHESTER MN - 44 IN 1917
SPARTA WI - 40 IN 1968
WINONA MN - 49 IN 1995
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
CLIMATE...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1022 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
DIFFUSE FRONTAL OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS JUST TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THIS SHOWS UP IN SURFACE DEWPOINT AND
WIND ANALYSIS. A SECONDARY FRONT WHICH IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINT AIR IS FROM NW OHIO TO NW AR AND JUST ENTERING
INTO FAR WESTERN KY. THIS BOUNDARY IS ALSO APPARENT ON SURFACE WIND
AND DEWPOINT ANALYSIS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THESE FEATURES WILL
TEND TO SERVE AS FOCUS AREAS FOR CONVECTION...AND THIS IDEA IS
DEPICTED IN THE LATEST HRRR. WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REMOVED RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL NOT PASS TO OUR EAST UNTIL
TONIGHT SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
TONIGHT PERIOD. HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
AFTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT...RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW A CLEAR SCOPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AM STILL A
BIT CONCERNED AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA. GIVEN THE DECENT RELIABILITY
OF THE HRRR OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AM STILL A BIT CONCERNED
THAT LATEST RUNS ARE SHOWING NO POPS OVER KY...NOR IS THE NAM12. WILL
KEEP WITH OFFICIAL POPS FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE HOW THIS
SYSTEM ENDS UP PANNING OUT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON
TRACK. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND
WINDS TO MAKE SURE THAT CURRENT FORECAST IS ON PAR WITH ONGOING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
PRECIPITATION JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...NOW PARKED JUST TO
OUR NW...DIED DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN KY EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS LACK OF GOOD FORCING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD STILL
DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...SO CHOSE
TO LEAVE IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. BY THIS MORNING...INCREASING
TEMPS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO POP UP ONCE MORE. DO HAVE A FEW CONCERNS
HOWEVER. FIRST IS THE GENERAL DIRECTIONAL FLOW. THERE IS HIGH WATER
CONTENT...BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH VERY LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME DECENT SPEED SHEAR...SO
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO HAVE A DECENT
RATE OF SPEED...DROP SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND MAYBE A
FEW GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL AS THEY QUICKLY PULSE DOWN.
THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE MODEL AGREEMENT FOR POPS...AND ALSO HOW
THEY LINE UP WITH THE CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BASED ON THE LATEST FRONTAL ANALYSIS...THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN KY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.
WRLY WINDS...INCLUDING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WILL BEGIN PULLING IN
EVEN DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA BY 18Z BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THAT BEING SAID...BOTH THE NAM12 AND HRRR HAVE HARDLY ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS KY...AND WHAT DOES WILL BE EAST OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL QPF TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT...BUT MUCH LIGHTER IN NATURE. ACCORDING TO THIS
SOLUTION THE BEST CONVECTION WILL STILL BE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND
PIN POINTED OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF FAR EASTERN KY. THE GFS IS THE
OUTLIER AND PUTS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AND EVEN
INTO CENTRAL KY...INCLUDING AREAS THAT ARE POST FRONTAL. WITH ALL OF
THIS IN MIND...WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND AND THEN DID SOME EDITING TO
GEAR MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF THINKING...WITH SCATTERED POPS POSSIBLE
OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION POST FRONTAL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF.
POPS WILL CONTINUE TO DIE DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE STATE AND THEN BECOMES STALLED
OUT ONCE MORE. KEPT MENTION OF POPS IN FAR EASTERN KY THROUGH THURS
MORNING AS A RESULT OF THIS DELAYED MOVEMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S...WITH THE COOLEST AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA CORRESPONDING
WITH EXPECTED LATE NIGHT CLEARING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH GENERAL FLOW PULLING IN FROM THE NW...ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
THE MODELS ARE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN
ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL
TRANSLATE A SEASONABLY DEEP GREAT LAKES TROUGH EAST INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES AS IT FILLS. IN THE PROCESS...IT MANAGES TO PICK UP
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR CURRENTLY RATED AS A TROPICAL STORM BUT
FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST A STRONG CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST AND MOST REASONABLE WITH THIS
INTERACTION AND LIKEWISE SLOWS THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY. NEVERTHELESS...EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE SPARED ANY
MOISTURE OR PCPN FROM THIS AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. RISING HEIGHTS DURING THIS PROCESS WILL KEEP THE
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM CAUSING ANY TROUBLE FOR OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL FLATTEN
AND KENTUCKY WILL BE AT THE MERCY OF WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...AND BEYOND. ONE OF
THESE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LOWER HEIGHTS LOCALLY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY HEADS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ANOTHER WAVE FOLLOWS IN THE WEAK FLOW FOR LATER
TUESDAY AND SHOULD HELP TRIGGER MORE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST. AFTER FAVORING THE ECMWF
INITIALLY...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD A MODEL BLEND FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A MUCH WELCOMED AREA OF COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS HIGH BRINGS TEMPERATURES A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
FROM THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS QUICKLY SETS THE STAGE FOR A
RETURN OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES PEAK TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ALONG WITH THE STORM CHANCES...THE HEAT
WILL RETURN WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
DURING THE NEW WORK WEEK.
THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS EACH AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY TO
TUESDAY TO REFLECT THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. ALSO...
TWEAKED THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIDGE
TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
A COLD FRONT PARKED JUST TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS TREK EASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN KY DURING THE DAY TODAY. AS SUCH...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE WEST...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED MAINLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT KSME AND KLOZ WILL
ACTUALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION...OR IF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP.
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCTS...BUT HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE FOR THESE TWO
SITES COMPARED TO KJKL AND KSJS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND.
THIS COULD PUT KLOZ AND KSME IN THE POSITION TO POSSIBLY SEE CLEARING
LATE AND THEN SUBSEQUENTLY SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS STILL RATHER LOW UNTIL THE WE SEE WHAT THE DAYTIME WEATHER
BRINGS...SO CHOSE TO LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
711 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
AFTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT...RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW A CLEAR SCOPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AM STILL A
BIT CONCERNED AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA. GIVEN THE DECENT RELIABILITY
OF THE HRRR OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AM STILL A BIT CONCERNED
THAT LATEST RUNS ARE SHOWING NO POPS OVER KY...NOR IS THE NAM12. WILL
KEEP WITH OFFICIAL POPS FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE HOW THIS
SYSTEM ENDS UP PANNING OUT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON
TRACK. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND
WINDS TO MAKE SURE THAT CURRENT FORECAST IS ON PAR WITH ONGOING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
PRECIPITATION JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...NOW PARKED JUST TO
OUR NW...DIED DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN KY EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS LACK OF GOOD FORCING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD STILL
DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...SO CHOSE
TO LEAVE IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. BY THIS MORNING...INCREASING
TEMPS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO POP UP ONCE MORE. DO HAVE A FEW CONCERNS
HOWEVER. FIRST IS THE GENERAL DIRECTIONAL FLOW. THERE IS HIGH WATER
CONTENT...BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH VERY LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME DECENT SPEED SHEAR...SO
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO HAVE A DECENT
RATE OF SPEED...DROP SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND MAYBE A
FEW GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL AS THEY QUICKLY PULSE DOWN.
THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE MODEL AGREEMENT FOR POPS...AND ALSO HOW
THEY LINE UP WITH THE CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BASED ON THE LATEST FRONTAL ANALYSIS...THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN KY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.
WRLY WINDS...INCLUDING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WILL BEGIN PULLING IN
EVEN DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA BY 18Z BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THAT BEING SAID...BOTH THE NAM12 AND HRRR HAVE HARDLY ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS KY...AND WHAT DOES WILL BE EAST OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL QPF TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT...BUT MUCH LIGHTER IN NATURE. ACCORDING TO THIS
SOLUTION THE BEST CONVECTION WILL STILL BE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND
PIN POINTED OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF FAR EASTERN KY. THE GFS IS THE
OUTLIER AND PUTS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AND EVEN
INTO CENTRAL KY...INCLUDING AREAS THAT ARE POST FRONTAL. WITH ALL OF
THIS IN MIND...WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND AND THEN DID SOME EDITING TO
GEAR MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF THINKING...WITH SCATTERED POPS POSSIBLE
OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION POST FRONTAL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF.
POPS WILL CONTINUE TO DIE DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE STATE AND THEN BECOMES STALLED
OUT ONCE MORE. KEPT MENTION OF POPS IN FAR EASTERN KY THROUGH THURS
MORNING AS A RESULT OF THIS DELAYED MOVEMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S...WITH THE COOLEST AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA CORRESPONDING
WITH EXPECTED LATE NIGHT CLEARING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH GENERAL FLOW PULLING IN FROM THE NW...ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
THE MODELS ARE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN
ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL
TRANSLATE A SEASONABLY DEEP GREAT LAKES TROUGH EAST INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES AS IT FILLS. IN THE PROCESS...IT MANAGES TO PICK UP
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR CURRENTLY RATED AS A TROPICAL STORM BUT
FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST A STRONG CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST AND MOST REASONABLE WITH THIS
INTERACTION AND LIKEWISE SLOWS THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY. NEVERTHELESS...EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE SPARED ANY
MOISTURE OR PCPN FROM THIS AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. RISING HEIGHTS DURING THIS PROCESS WILL KEEP THE
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM CAUSING ANY TROUBLE FOR OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL FLATTEN
AND KENTUCKY WILL BE AT THE MERCY OF WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...AND BEYOND. ONE OF
THESE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LOWER HEIGHTS LOCALLY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY HEADS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ANOTHER WAVE FOLLOWS IN THE WEAK FLOW FOR LATER
TUESDAY AND SHOULD HELP TRIGGER MORE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST. AFTER FAVORING THE ECMWF
INITIALLY...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD A MODEL BLEND FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A MUCH WELCOMED AREA OF COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS HIGH BRINGS TEMPERATURES A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
FROM THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS QUICKLY SETS THE STAGE FOR A
RETURN OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES PEAK TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ALONG WITH THE STORM CHANCES...THE HEAT
WILL RETURN WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
DURING THE NEW WORK WEEK.
THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS EACH AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY TO
TUESDAY TO REFLECT THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. ALSO...
TWEAKED THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIDGE
TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
A COLD FRONT PARKED JUST TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS TREK EASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN KY DURING THE DAY TODAY. AS SUCH...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE WEST...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED MAINLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT KSME AND KLOZ WILL
ACTUALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION...OR IF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP.
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCTS...BUT HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE FOR THESE TWO
SITES COMPARED TO KJKL AND KSJS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND.
THIS COULD PUT KLOZ AND KSME IN THE POSITION TO POSSIBLY SEE CLEARING
LATE AND THEN SUBSEQUENTLY SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS STILL RATHER LOW UNTIL THE WE SEE WHAT THE DAYTIME WEATHER
BRINGS...SO CHOSE TO LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1049 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED NEAR THE HWY
82 CORRIDOR IN THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS DRIFTED INTO SRN MS AND ANOTHER WAS
EVIDENT NEAR SHREVEPORT, LA MOVING TO THE SE. ALL OF THESE AND ANY
OTHERS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL SERVE AS FOCUS MECHANISMS
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. MORNING REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATES STEEP
LAPSE RATES WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG OVERALL.
HOWEVER...12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES H5 UPPER S/WV OVER THE
ARKLATEX EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY. THIS UPPER S/WV WILL ENHANCE MID-DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OVER AREAS ALONG/NW OF A LINE FROM NATCHEZ TO MACON,MS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS TODAY...INVERTED-V
TYPE SOUNDINGS WILL SUPPORT STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. MICROBURST
POTENTIAL LOOKS FAIRLY HIGH TODAY WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 3000-4000
J/KG...~1000 J/KG DCAPE...AND VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND 28-30 DEG C. IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT....STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT LOOK POSSIBLE.
THE AREAS WITH THE BEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR...~20-25KTS...LOOKS TO REMAIN
ALONG/NW OF A LINE FROM NATCHEZ TO MACON, MS. THUS...SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS HIGHER IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AND GRAPHICS/HWO LOOK ON
TRACK. AREAS IN E/SE MS LOOK TO BE MORE PULSE/DIURNAL DRIVEN
CONVECTION AS THESE ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE H5 UPPER HIGH. CAN`T RULE
OUT A STRAY SEVERE STORM IN THESE AREAS BUT MORE SUFFICIENT
SHEAR/SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO THE W/NW.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 19-20Z AND THE
PREVIOUS MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
IN S/SE MS AND CURRENT BOUNDARY NEAR SHREVEPORT WILL SERVE AS FOCUS
FOR STORMS IN THE W...ALONG WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE S.
INCREASED POPS IN THE SE DUE TO HRRR INDICATING MORE POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALSO INCREASED FROM THE NW/SE DUE TO H925
MOISTURE GRADIENT TO THE N...INDICATIVE OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
NW AND MOVING SE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
HRRR. FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...HIGHS LOOK ON TRACK OVERALL BUT
SLIGHTLY TWEAKED HIGHS WITH WARMER TEMPS IN STORE FOR E/SE MS. IT
WILL ALSO BE A HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING JUST
OVER 100 DEGREES AT MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN E/SE MS.
OVERALL...ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY COVER TO CURRENT
TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE
SEVERAL CLOUDS LAYERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOWEST HEIGHTS MAINLY 3
TO 4 KFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MIDDAY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN ALL AREAS BY BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN EARLY EVENING AT GLH/GWO/CBM/GTR/TVR. IN
THESE LATTER AREAS STORMS PRODUCING MICROBURSTS AND HIGH LEVELS OF
TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
/17/BB/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SET TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS IS
MAKING FOR A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT SHORT TERM FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
WIDESPREAD PLEASANT CONDITIONS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. BUT...FOR
TODAY...WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE PROSPECT OF THIS INCOMING BOUNDARY
LATE IN THE DAY TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN
MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS SHIFT INTRODUCED LIMITED
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE...MAINLY DUE TO DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL. THIS
ASSESSMENT STILL LOOKS BASICALLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR SPATIAL
AND TEMPORAL ADJUSTMENTS. DEBATED COVERING THE WHOLE REGION WITH
THIS RISK BECAUSE ALL AREAS WILL BE IN A HIGH LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF DCAPE TO ENHANCE MICROBURST POTENTIAL
FROM MOSTLY PULSE-TYPE STORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE
PROSPECT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MS THIS
AFTERNOON DEPTH OF MOISTURE ISSUES AND LINGERING THERMAL CAPPING
WILL LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY THERE VERY ISOLATED. IT IS NEAR THE
INCOMING FRONTAL ZONE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
THAT MOISTURE SHOULD POOL SUFFICIENTLY AND CAPPING ERODE ENOUGH TO
HAVE CONFIDENCE IN 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE OF STORMS. OTHERWISE
FOR TODAY ANTICIPATE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS SLIGHTLY
HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY (ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW MAVMOS INFLATED
EXPECTATIONS). PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK.
THIS EVENING GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEST POOLING OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE ARKLATEX
BACK EAST THROUGH FAR NORTHERN LA. A LOOSE CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD
GENERATE HERE WITH AT LEAST SOME OF THE ACTIVITY BLEEDING OVER INTO
WEST-CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT POTENTIAL FOR ANY MARGINALLY SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD END IN THE
EVENING WITH NOT ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR LOW LEVEL JET
INFLUENCE TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE WHOLE
NIGHT. THE BACK END OF THE SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD
PUSH DOWN TO THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK ALLOWING LOWS UP
THERE BY THURSDAY MORNING TO PROBABLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S.
ELSEWHERE...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MUGGY LOW TO MID 70S AGAIN.
WEAK FRONTAL LIFT WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...AND LIKELY BE IN A POSITION TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF I-20 BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE ATMOSPHERE THERE HEATS AND DESTABILIZES. THE LATEST EURO MODEL
IS MORE BULLISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN ZONES AND IT IS
POSSIBLE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAY HAVE TO
BE INCREASED IN SOUTHERN ZONES OVER WHAT I AM CURRENTLY ADVERTISING.
AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THESE AREAS BUT AT THIS TIME POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A
STRAY SEVERE STORM LOOKING TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO DUE TO
LESSER LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE POTENTIAL THAN WILL BE THE CASE THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER HOT AND HUMID IN SOUTHERN
ZONES AWAY FROM RAIN THURSDAY...BUT THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO IN THE
FORECAST AREA THE MORE TOLERABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WITH HUMIDITY
DECREASING AND HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS
NORTH OF I-20. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE THE ENTIRE FRONTAL ZONE
SLIPPING DOWN TOWARD THE COAST WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING SOUTH THROUGH THE WHOLE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS BY
THIS TIME SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES WITH RECORDS
IN THE BALLPARK AT GREENWOOD AND TVR OBSERVING SITES. /BB/
LONG TERM...INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...4TH OF JULY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE PLEASANT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WITH REDUCED HUMIDITY AND BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WITH PLENTY
OF SUN. UPWARD MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND 20-40% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS LOOK TO OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
4TH OF JULY SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHILE
DIRECTING TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND RIDGING
RETROGRADING WEST INTO TEXAS. 1-2 SD BELOW NORMAL H925 TEMPS WILL
COMBINE WITH NEAR ALL TIME LOW PWATS /0.5-0.7"/ FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR TO YIELD NEAR 10F BELOW NORMAL LOWS WITH SOME NORTHERN SITES
FLIRTING WITH RECORD LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. FULL SUN DURING FRI-SAT WILL
WARM TEMPS BACK INTO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F.
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SLOWLY BACK AROUND SUNDAY TO SE/S ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO EDGE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING SLOWLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS ATLANTIC INTO
GOM TRYING TO LINK WITH RIDGING IN SW CONUS. HOWEVER CONTINUED H5
NRN STREAM TROUGHING KEEPS RIDGE CONNECTION LINK BROKEN AND WITH A
PROGGED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER SW GOM, THE
ARKLAMISS LOOKS TO BE IN A COL OR SADDLE POINT MONDAY. BETTER
DIVERGENCE ALOFT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH
INCREASED H25 FLOW AROUND UPPER TROUGH WITH SE SFC-H7 FLOW BRINGING
IN NEAR 2" PWATS BY WEDNESDAY. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH INSTABILITY
WILL COMBINE TO INCREASE CONVECTION COVERAGE EACH DAY IN THE 20-40%
RANGE INCREASING THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
FOR WEATHER ELEMENTS...MEXMOS TEMPS WERE GENERALLY ACCEPTED WITH
SLIGHT TWEAKS UP TO LOWS GIVEN WET GROUND MODERATION BUT STILL CLOSE
TO RECORD LOWS AND MEXPOPS WERE REDUCED FRI/SAT TO NEAR NIL. /ALLEN/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 94 72 91 64 / 32 18 11 7
MERIDIAN 96 71 92 62 / 28 17 9 6
VICKSBURG 93 70 90 60 / 35 24 13 8
HATTIESBURG 96 74 95 67 / 27 14 17 12
NATCHEZ 93 72 90 64 / 31 19 22 13
GREENVILLE 93 69 87 62 / 34 14 4 2
GREENWOOD 93 67 87 61 / 30 14 4 1
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DC/17/BB/ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
648 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REASONING OUTLINED IN THE MAIN MORNING
DISCUSSION BELOW REMAINS IN PRETTY DECENT SHAPE...AS THE NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN HAS IN FACT BRUSHED INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CWA. IT STILL LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY THAT EVEN
THIS FAR SOUTHWEST AREA WILL BE VOID OF ANY LIGHT RAIN RISK BY
MID-MORNING AS THE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX NOW
ENTERING THE NORTHERN CWA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STARTS TO SLIP
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ABOUT THE ONLY FORECAST ELEMENT THAT
UNDERWENT SOME MODEST TWEAKING FOR THIS UPDATE WAS SKY COVER IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST...AS IT NOW APPEARS THAT ESPECIALLY POLK COUNTY
AND IMMEDIATE VICINITY COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF ENHANCED CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING ALONG THE EXTREME WESTERN FRINGES OF A STRATUS
DECK THAT SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN OVER EASTERN NEB.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST...IT APPEARS THAT BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND
HASTINGS SURVIVED THE NIGHT WITHOUT REACHING RECORD LOWS AS BOTH
SITES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AT 52...ALTHOUGH HASTINGS CAME WITHIN 2
DEGREES OF TYING ITS RECORD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
YOU KNOW ITS A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST WHEN THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS
DECIDING WHETHER OR NOT TO PLACE A SMALL AREA OF SPRINKLES OR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA FOR THIS
MORNING. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS WE
ENJOY ONE MORE DAY/NIGHT OF 10+ DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BEFORE A WARM-UP TO MORE SUMMER LIKE
READINGS BEGINS. ALTHOUGH NOT AS BREEZY AS YESTERDAY WAS...WINDS
TODAY ARE NOT EXACTLY CALM EITHER ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281
BETWEEN THE MID-MORNING AND MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THERE WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
FIRMLY SETTLES IN. FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...BREEZES
WILL BE MORE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY 10
MPH OR LESS. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT AS PLEASANT
AS IT GETS FOR EARLY JULY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
STARTING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AS OF 08Z/3AM...11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BLOTCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EVIDENT JUST OFF THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WEST...AS A COUPLE
FAIRLY SOLID BANDS OF CLOUDS BASED AROUND 10 THOUSAND FEET ARE
WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST NEB. IN
FACT...A NARROW BUT LEGITIMATE LINE OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY
DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NEB
AREA. THIS LIGHT PRECIP/CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS BEING DRIVEN BY
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION EVIDENT IN MODEL DATA ON THE
310K SURFACE (AROUND 700 MILLIBARS)...WHICH IN TURN IS TAKING
PLACE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A VERY WELL-DEFINED
(ESPECIALLY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) ALBEIT MOISTURE-STARVED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIVING TOWARD CENTRAL NEB OUT OF
SOUTHWEST SD. THIS SHORTWAVE IS ESSENTIALLY THE LAST HURRAH OF
DISTURBANCES ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH/LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE OFF TO THE
WEST...AN AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA RESIDES JUST
DOWNSTREAM FROM A 1022MB RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE NEB/SD/WY
BORDER AREA...WHICH IS PROMOTING LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES
GENERALLY UNDER 8 MPH. ALTHOUGH ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE
PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DECENT COOLING THROUGH SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 2ND AT GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS
SHOULD STAY SAFE BY A FEW DEGREES...STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
MOST FAVORED IN FAR NORTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL COUNTIES.
LOOKING FORWARD AND STARTING WITH THESE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH
SUNRISE...THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY OF THE NARROW
STRIPES OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY WEST OF THE CWA COULD POSSIBLY
CLIP FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS. THE 06Z HRRR SUGGESTS ITS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...AND FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
MAINLY FOR PARTS OF FURNAS/ROOKS COUNTIES.
GETTING INTO THE OFFICIAL DAYTIME FORECAST PERIOD 7AM-7PM...THE
BIG PICTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS INVOLVES THE CONTINUED PASSAGE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS
SLATED TO BE PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AND EVEN
STRENGTHEN A BIT BY 00Z/7PM AS IT DEPARTS INTO THE IA/IL/MO
BORDER AREA. AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY...A FAIRLY PERSISTENT ZONE OF
MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA OVER KS...LIKELY PROMOTING A DECENT COVERAGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY (ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON) ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHWESTERN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE OBVIOUS
QUESTION THEN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER OR NOT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA THIS
MORNING BEFORE THIS PRECIP EITHER FADES OR SHIFTS MORE SAFELY INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS. NO MATTER...FELT IT COULD BE A CLOSE ENOUGH CALL FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO SLIP INTO FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES THAT DECIDED TO INSERT
A TOKEN SPRINKLE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MENTION INTO
PRIMARILY THE ROOKS COUNTY AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...WHILE
LEAVING THE ENTIRE CWA VOID OF PRECIP MENTION BEYOND 18Z/1PM. NO
MATTER WHAT...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS DRY TODAY...AND
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
THOSE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY IF NOT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE SHARP
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MID CLOUD DECK. AT THE SURFACE
TODAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DRIFTING IN FROM
NORTHWEST NEB...PROMOTING THE LIGHTER WIND REGIME TODAY AS
DESCRIBED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH ABOVE. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST SEVERAL MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY...MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS...AIMING FOR MID 70S NORTHEAST TO
UPPER 70S/POSSIBLY 80 SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HANDS DOWN IT WILL THE
COOLEST DAY THE AREA WILL SEE FOR AWHILE.
TURNING TO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
RATHER HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE...ALTHOUGH AM SEEING JUST
ENOUGH OF A ANOTHER MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL FOR THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS IN THE 06Z NAM THAT WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SHOCKED
TO SEE ANOTHER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES TOWARD SUNRISE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF
THE CWA. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS
SCENARIO YET TO DISRUPT THE PRECIP-FREE FORECAST JUST YET FOR
SOMETHING OF SUCH LITTLE IMPACT...ESPECIALLY WITH A LACK OF
LARGER-SCALE LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE BIG PICTURE IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY VOID OF ANY SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES...AS MODEST HEIGHT RISES OCCUR UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE EDGING EASTWARD A BIT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE EVENING WILL START
OUT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...BEFORE
SLIDING MORE TOWARD THE MO RIVER BY SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...EVENING
BREEZES WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BEFORE A SOMEWHAT
STEADIER ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE GETS GOING LATE IN
THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEEN INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN EXPERIENCE A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...ESPECIALLY MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE LOW TEMPS END UP
NEAR THOSE OF THIS MORNING. GENERALLY NUDGED DOWN MOST AREAS 1-2
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS...RESULTING IN LOWS FORECAST TO GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 50-53 NORTHEAST AND 53-57 SOUTHWEST. AGAIN
THOUGH...RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE SHOULD BE SAFE IN THE TRI-CITIES
AREA BY ROUGHLY 4 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE WORKING INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 12Z THURSDAY...WITH LONG WAVE RIDGING THEN
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A SERIES OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OVER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI AT 12 THURSDAY. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF TO OUR
EAST...AND TROUGHING ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES...SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF A 35-40KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THIS PRECIPITATION THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
INTO OUR AREA. THIS IS A SOLUTION STILL SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS EC AND SREF-MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FOR A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY...A CONTINUED LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD
PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. HEADING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT OF YET ANOTHER 35-40KT JET
AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA...A SOLUTION ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN. WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30%
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS TRAVELING WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY MEAN
FLOW ADVANCING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...COULD BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20-
30% POPS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THESE POPS
WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMING TREND DURING MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE
LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...AND CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
90S BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ARE ALSO FORECAST DURING
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS AS A SEASONABLY
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT
MOST...A SCATTERED LOW-END VFR CUMULUS FIELD IS ANTICIPATED
TODAY...WITH OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. NORTH-NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER THAN
TUESDAY BUT STILL EXHIBIT SOME SUSTAINED SPEED POTENTIAL OF 12+ KT
AND GUST POTENTIAL TO 18+ KT ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 15Z-21Z BEFORE
SLACKENING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE BEFORE PICKING UP SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
603 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
YOU KNOW ITS A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST WHEN THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS
DECIDING WHETHER OR NOT TO PLACE A SMALL AREA OF SPRINKLES OR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA FOR THIS
MORNING. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS WE
ENJOY ONE MORE DAY/NIGHT OF 10+ DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BEFORE A WARM-UP TO MORE SUMMER LIKE
READINGS BEGINS. ALTHOUGH NOT AS BREEZY AS YESTERDAY WAS...WINDS
TODAY ARE NOT EXACTLY CALM EITHER ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281
BETWEEN THE MID-MORNING AND MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THERE WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
FIRMLY SETTLES IN. FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...BREEZES
WILL BE MORE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY 10
MPH OR LESS. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT AS PLEASANT
AS IT GETS FOR EARLY JULY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
STARTING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AS OF 08Z/3AM...11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BLOTCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EVIDENT JUST OFF THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WEST...AS A COUPLE
FAIRLY SOLID BANDS OF CLOUDS BASED AROUND 10 THOUSAND FEET ARE
WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST NEB. IN
FACT...A NARROW BUT LEGITIMATE LINE OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY
DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NEB
AREA. THIS LIGHT PRECIP/CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS BEING DRIVEN BY
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION EVIDENT IN MODEL DATA ON THE
310K SURFACE (AROUND 700 MILLIBARS)...WHICH IN TURN IS TAKING
PLACE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A VERY WELL-DEFINED
(ESPECIALLY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) ALBEIT MOISTURE-STARVED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIVING TOWARD CENTRAL NEB OUT OF
SOUTHWEST SD. THIS SHORTWAVE IS ESSENTIALLY THE LAST HURRAH OF
DISTURBANCES ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH/LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE OFF TO THE
WEST...AN AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA RESIDES JUST
DOWNSTREAM FROM A 1022MB RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE NEB/SD/WY
BORDER AREA...WHICH IS PROMOTING LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES
GENERALLY UNDER 8 MPH. ALTHOUGH ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE
PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DECENT COOLING THROUGH SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 2ND AT GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS
SHOULD STAY SAFE BY A FEW DEGREES...STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
MOST FAVORED IN FAR NORTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL COUNTIES.
LOOKING FORWARD AND STARTING WITH THESE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH
SUNRISE...THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY OF THE NARROW
STRIPES OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY WEST OF THE CWA COULD POSSIBLY
CLIP FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS. THE 06Z HRRR SUGGESTS ITS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...AND FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
MAINLY FOR PARTS OF FURNAS/ROOKS COUNTIES.
GETTING INTO THE OFFICIAL DAYTIME FORECAST PERIOD 7AM-7PM...THE
BIG PICTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS INVOLVES THE CONTINUED PASSAGE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS
SLATED TO BE PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AND EVEN
STRENGTHEN A BIT BY 00Z/7PM AS IT DEPARTS INTO THE IA/IL/MO
BORDER AREA. AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY...A FAIRLY PERSISTENT ZONE OF
MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA OVER KS...LIKELY PROMOTING A DECENT COVERAGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY (ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON) ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHWESTERN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE OBVIOUS
QUESTION THEN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER OR NOT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA THIS
MORNING BEFORE THIS PRECIP EITHER FADES OR SHIFTS MORE SAFELY INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS. NO MATTER...FELT IT COULD BE A CLOSE ENOUGH CALL FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO SLIP INTO FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES THAT DECIDED TO INSERT
A TOKEN SPRINKLE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MENTION INTO
PRIMARILY THE ROOKS COUNTY AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...WHILE
LEAVING THE ENTIRE CWA VOID OF PRECIP MENTION BEYOND 18Z/1PM. NO
MATTER WHAT...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS DRY TODAY...AND
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
THOSE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY IF NOT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE SHARP
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MID CLOUD DECK. AT THE SURFACE
TODAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DRIFTING IN FROM
NORTHWEST NEB...PROMOTING THE LIGHTER WIND REGIME TODAY AS
DESCRIBED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH ABOVE. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST SEVERAL MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY...MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS...AIMING FOR MID 70S NORTHEAST TO
UPPER 70S/POSSIBLY 80 SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HANDS DOWN IT WILL THE
COOLEST DAY THE AREA WILL SEE FOR AWHILE.
TURNING TO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
RATHER HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE...ALTHOUGH AM SEEING JUST
ENOUGH OF A ANOTHER MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL FOR THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS IN THE 06Z NAM THAT WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SHOCKED
TO SEE ANOTHER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES TOWARD SUNRISE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF
THE CWA. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS
SCENARIO YET TO DISRUPT THE PRECIP-FREE FORECAST JUST YET FOR
SOMETHING OF SUCH LITTLE IMPACT...ESPECIALLY WITH A LACK OF
LARGER-SCALE LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE BIG PICTURE IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY VOID OF ANY SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES...AS MODEST HEIGHT RISES OCCUR UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE EDGING EASTWARD A BIT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE EVENING WILL START
OUT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...BEFORE
SLIDING MORE TOWARD THE MO RIVER BY SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...EVENING
BREEZES WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BEFORE A SOMEWHAT
STEADIER ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE GETS GOING LATE IN
THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEEN INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN EXPERIENCE A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...ESPECIALLY MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE LOW TEMPS END UP
NEAR THOSE OF THIS MORNING. GENERALLY NUDGED DOWN MOST AREAS 1-2
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS...RESULTING IN LOWS FORECAST TO GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 50-53 NORTHEAST AND 53-57 SOUTHWEST. AGAIN
THOUGH...RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE SHOULD BE SAFE IN THE TRI-CITIES
AREA BY ROUGHLY 4 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE WORKING INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 12Z THURSDAY...WITH LONG WAVE RIDGING THEN
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A SERIES OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OVER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI AT 12 THURSDAY. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF TO OUR
EAST...AND TROUGHING ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES...SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF A 35-40KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THIS PRECIPITATION THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
INTO OUR AREA. THIS IS A SOLUTION STILL SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS EC AND SREF-MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FOR A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY...A CONTINUED LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD
PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. HEADING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT OF YET ANOTHER 35-40KT JET
AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA...A SOLUTION ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN. WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30%
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS TRAVELING WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY MEAN
FLOW ADVANCING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...COULD BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20-
30% POPS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THESE POPS
WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMING TREND DURING MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE
LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...AND CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
90S BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ARE ALSO FORECAST DURING
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS AS A SEASONABLY
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT
MOST...A SCATTERED LOW-END VFR CUMULUS FIELD IS ANTICIPATED
TODAY...WITH OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. NORTH-NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER THAN
TUESDAY BUT STILL EXHIBIT SOME SUSTAINED SPEED POTENTIAL OF 12+ KT
AND GUST POTENTIAL TO 18+ KT ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 15Z-21Z BEFORE
SLACKENING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE BEFORE PICKING UP SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
905 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE
MORNING CLOUD COVER FOR THOSE AREAS. ALSO...THE PATCHY FOG HAS
LIFTED. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING PATCHY FOG WORDING.
THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
A COOL START TO THE MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG OUT THERE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. KEPT A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG THROUGH 13 UTC. AREA OF VFR CLOUDS OVER THE WEST AND
ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTH FROM MANITOBA. THIS HAS BEEN HANDLED WELL
BY THE HRRR AND WAS ADDED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERALL A
LITTLE COOL FOR EARLY JULY BUT LESS WIND TODAY AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER SKY COVER/GRIDS
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA
WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. UPSTREAM...OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA...THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP IS SHOWING AN EXPANDING AREA
OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS BASED AT 5000FT-6000FT. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
THE 850MB-750MB LAYER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA APPEARS TO BE
THE MAIN DRIVER FOR VERTICAL MOTION AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE
NAM/GFS RH TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AS WELL AS THE HRRR CLOUD
BASE HEIGHT/CEILING FORECAST...ALL PAINT A SCT/BKN 5KFT STRATIFORM
CLOUD DECK FOR MOST OF THE WEST THIS MORNING. THIS TRANSITIONS TO
A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SIMILAR AREA
DEVELOPS OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY MID MORNING...THEN EXPANDS
SOUTHEAST JUST GRAZING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE HIGHEST
CLOUD COVERAGE...AND THUS A MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
HERE. PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WEST WILL BE THE GOING FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM CROSBY THIS MORNING INTO
JAMESTOWN BY 00Z THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE BE IN THE
70S TODAY. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT SCT CLOUDS WITH WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD THURSDAY WITH A MODERATE AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER CANADA
BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING OVER
THE TOP OF THE NOW FLATTENED RIDGE WHICH IS SITUATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THUS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 00 UTC WED 2 JULY GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATE A SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MUCAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA BY 00 UTC SATURDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK CAP HANGING ON BETWEEN 850
AND 700 MB AT KBIS AND KJMS FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
LIMITED CAPPING FROM KDIK AND KISN UP THROUGH KMOT. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON THE 4TH
GIVEN THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TEMPER SLIGHTLY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE OUR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT
WITH ANY STORM...BUT A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR WITH SCT/BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN
5KFT-6KFT...ESPECIALLY AT KISN/KDIK. SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED AT
KBIS/KMOT/KJMS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY THEN BECOMING
SOUTHEAST AT 5KT TO 10KT AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST
WEEKEND CREATED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORAGE AT BOTH ALAMEDA
DAM AND LAKE DARLING. RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM WILL INCREASE OVER
THE COMING DAYS...THUS INCREASING THE RELEASES DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE
DARLING. THIS...COMBINED WITH LOCAL RUNOFF...WILL CAUSE THE SOURIS
RIVER TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...KS/JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
629 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
A COOL START TO THE MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG OUT THERE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. KEPT A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG THROUGH 13 UTC. AREA OF VFR CLOUDS OVER THE WEST AND
ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTH FROM MANITOBA. THIS HAS BEEN HANDLED WELL
BY THE HRRR AND WAS ADDED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERALL A
LITTLE COOL FOR EARLY JULY BUT LESS WIND TODAY AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER SKY COVER/GRIDS
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA
WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. UPSTREAM...OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA...THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP IS SHOWING AN EXPANDING AREA
OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS BASED AT 5000FT-6000FT. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
THE 850MB-750MB LAYER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA APPEARS TO BE
THE MAIN DRIVER FOR VERTICAL MOTION AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE
NAM/GFS RH TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AS WELL AS THE HRRR CLOUD
BASE HEIGHT/CEILING FORECAST...ALL PAINT A SCT/BKN 5KFT STRATIFORM
CLOUD DECK FOR MOST OF THE WEST THIS MORNING. THIS TRANSITIONS TO
A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SIMILAR AREA
DEVELOPS OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY MID MORNING...THEN EXPANDS
SOUTHEAST JUST GRAZING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE HIGHEST
CLOUD COVERAGE...AND THUS A MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
HERE. PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WEST WILL BE THE GOING FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM CROSBY THIS MORNING INTO
JAMESTOWN BY 00Z THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE BE IN THE
70S TODAY. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT SCT CLOUDS WITH WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD THURSDAY WITH A MODERATE AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER CANADA
BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING OVER
THE TOP OF THE NOW FLATTENED RIDGE WHICH IS SITUATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THUS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 00 UTC WED 2 JULY GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATE A SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MUCAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA BY 00 UTC SATURDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK CAP HANGING ON BETWEEN 850
AND 700 MB AT KBIS AND KJMS FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
LIMITED CAPPING FROM KDIK AND KISN UP THROUGH KMOT. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON THE 4TH
GIVEN THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TEMPER SLIGHTLY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE OUR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT
WITH ANY STORM...BUT A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR WITH SCT/BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN
5KFT-6KFT...ESPECIALLY AT KISN/KDIK. SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED AT
KBIS/KMOT/KJMS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY THEN BECOMING
SOUTHEAST AT 5KT TO 10KT AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST
WEEKEND CREATED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORAGE AT BOTH ALAMEDA
DAM AND LAKE DARLING. RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM WILL INCREASE OVER
THE COMING DAYS...THUS INCREASING THE RELEASES DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE
DARLING. THIS...COMBINED WITH LOCAL RUNOFF...WILL CAUSE THE SOURIS
RIVER TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...KS/JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM GREEN BAY TO SIOUX FALLS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS FRONT WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE
RUNNING AROUND 4C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2 TO 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF. CURRENTLY
ABUNDANT CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION IS HELPING TO KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY COULD BE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. STRONG
OMEGA BELOW 850 MB IS HELPING GENERATING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TODAY...THE 02.00Z MODELS ARE GOOD IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOUT 1 TO 2C. HOWEVER
THIS IS STILL 1.5 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN BOTH
THE NAM AND ECMWF. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 900 TO 800 MB RANGE AND ML CAPES OF
LESS THAN 100 J/KG. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG
LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE TODAY. THE LATEST RAP HAS THE BEST LAYER
STRETCHING POTENTIAL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SO THINKING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR
FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE THERE. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND COLD AIR ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...
THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
REACHED OR EXCEEDED. MORE ON THIS WILL BE COVERED IN THE
CLIMATOLOGY SECTION OF THIS PRODUCT.
FOR TONIGHT...850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 1 TO 2 DEGREES.
THIS STILL RESULTS 850 TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET AND KEEPING THE
WINDS WELL MIXED ABOVE THE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER...THERE WILL BE NO SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER AND SHORT NIGHT MAY HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT RECORD LOWS FROM
OCCURRING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
ON THURSDAY...WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE VERY STEEP 900 TO 750 MB
LAPSE RATES. USUALLY THIS WOULD BE A CONCERN FOR STRONGER WIND
GUSTS...BUT IN THE CASE THE WINDS ALOFT ARE RATHER LIGHT BELOW
700 MB...SO ONLY EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH
RANGE. THE MAIN THING THAT THE MIXING WILL DO IS BRING DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. SINCE MOS TYPICALLY DOES NOT DO WELL IN
THESE SITUATIONS USED THE MIX DOWN TOOL TO LOWER THE DEW POINTS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 40S WHICH IS VERY DRY FOR EARLY JULY.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP LAYER /UP TO 700 MB/ OF
LIGHT WINDS. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS. BOTH CLIMATOLOGY AND MOS DEW POINT SPREADS WOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRENCE IN THE WISCONSIN AND
KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE 925 MB AND
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THUS KEPT THE EVENING DRY. WITH ARTHUR MOVING UP THE
COAST AT THIS TIME...THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE RIDGING TO THE
WEST OF THIS SYSTEM MAY SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS THE REASON WHY BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
TIMING OF THESE WAVES ARE PROBLEMATIC AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...THERE CONTINUE TO BE AN INDICATION IN THE
MODELS THAT THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 12C FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT DOES FORM TO BE ELEVATED...THUS...WE ARE NOT ABLE TO TAP INTO
THE BETTER 0-3 KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL DESPITE THE LACK OF
SUPERCELL SHEAR. AS WE MOVE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BOTH
THE WARM CLOUD LAYER AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO FOCUS IT INTO A PARTICULAR AREA WHICH
WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON HOW LONG THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL HOLD ON FOR
ALONG WITH WHETHER ANY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME
SPORADIC SHOWERS. CEILINGS ARE HANGING ON TO AROUND 2-3KFT AND
SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT THIS EVENING AND WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP. SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BE HANGING ON AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE MAY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THERE TO NOT PUT ANY FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
NOT MUCH THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LA CROSSE NORTH
TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. MEANWHILE THE FLOOD CREST ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH OF
LA CROSSE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
HERE ARE THE RECORD COLD MAXIMUM FOR TODAY.
AUSTIN MN - 68 IN 1945
CHARLES CITY IA - 67 IN 1917
DECORAH IA - 71 IN 2001
LA CROSSE - 63 IN 1892
MEDFORD WI - 61 IN 2009
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI - 67 IN 2009
RICHLAND CENTER WI - 64 IN 2009
ROCHESTER MN - 62 IN 1892
SPARTA WI - 64 IN 2009
WINONA MN - 65 IN 2009
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.
AUSTIN MN - 43 IN 1940
CHARLES CITY IA - 45 IN 1967
DECORAH IA - 41 IN 1924
LA CROSSE WI - 49 IN 1968
MEDFORD WI - 37 IN 1927
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI - 45 IN 1968
RICHLAND CENTER WI - 43 IN 1995
ROCHESTER MN - 44 IN 1917
SPARTA WI - 40 IN 1968
WINONA MN - 49 IN 1995
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
CLIMATE...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
GREATLY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR A FEW
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. THE BULK OF ALTOCUMULUS
CASTELLANUS (ACCAS) CLOUDS OBSERVED FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA
DURING THE 13Z-14Z PERIOD THIS MORNING HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S-50S F...AND THESE
TEMPS WERE NEARLY 5-15 DEGS F HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE
TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS THIS TIME TUE.
02/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS ABOUT 0.90 INCH...
AN INCREASE OF NEARLY 0.25 INCH VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 24 HOUR TEMP
CHANGE PLOT DEPICTED COOLING OF ABOUT 2-4 DEGS C MOSTLY ABOVE 700
MB. THE ENVIRONMENT WAS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...WITH LIFTED INDEX OF
MINUS 1.4 AND UNMODIFIED SURFACE-BASED CAPE OF 296 J/KG. 02/12Z
UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED 592 DM HIGH CENTERED OVER NERN AZ WITH
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWD INTO WRN MONTANA. LIGHT NELY FLOW PREVAILED
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER...AND LIGHT WLY FLOW PREVAILED ABOVE 400 MB.
02/14Z RUC HRRR AND THE 02/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM YIELDED A SIMILAR
POTENTIAL PRECIP SCENARIO THRU TONIGHT. THE FIRST PRECIP ECHOES WERE
PROGGED TO DEVELOP AROUND 19Z TODAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...
THEN SUBSEQUENT ECHOES WERE PROGGED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY THEREAFTER
ACROSS SEVERAL MOUNTAIN RANGES IN COCHISE/GRAHAM COUNTIES. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MOVE SWWD TOWARD THE TUCSON METRO AREA...
MAINLY AFTER 03/00Z. CURIOUS TO NOTE THAT THE UNIV OF AZ MODEL
DEVELOPED ADDITIONAL ECHOES ACROSS ERN PIMA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.
THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MERGING WITH
MOISTURE SURGE TO BE EXPANDING EWD ACROSS PIMA COUNTY.
AT ANY RATE...THESE SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THAT DEPICTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON MOSTLY ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE THEN FORECAST THIS EVENING EXCEPT ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY WHERE PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WILL AWAIT RECEIPT
OF THE 02/12Z GFS/ECMWF BEFORE POTENTIALLY INCREASING POPS LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR THE TUCSON METRO AREA.
THE MAIN IMPACT/CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW...WITH BRIEF GUSTS
PERHAPS APPROACHING 50 KTS. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON...AND AVERAGE ABOUT 2-4
DEGS F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SE ARIZONA INTO THURSDAY.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF -SHRA/TSRA EAST TO SOUTH OF TUCSON
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW -SHRA THIS EVENING MOVING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL DESERTS WEST OF TUCSON. THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WITH SPEEDS LIKELY IN THE 35-45 KTS RANGE.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE KDUG TERMINAL SITE WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST RISK THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE THESE DOWNBURST WINDS. THUS...
WILL BE ADDING THIS TO THE KDUG 12Z TAF IN THE 02/20Z-23Z TIME
FRAME. OTHERWISE THE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS MORNING E OF KTUS AT 10-14
KFT AGL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. BY THIS AFTERNOON E OF KTUS EXPECT
CLOUD DECKS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN THE 8-14KFT AGL RANGE. THERE
WILL BE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AROUND AFTER 03/06Z. SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SW-NW 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS. NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT GUSTY AND ERRACTIC WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
STARTING TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT
STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...BY THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME WESTERN PIMA COUNTY...SCATTERED STORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS...INCLUDING TUCSON AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES BETWEEN TUCSON AND NEW MEXICO...WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME OF THE STORMS PROGRESS
FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TO PRODUCE OUTFLOWS WITH SUFFICIENT STRENGTH TO RESULT IN BLOWING
DUST CONCERNS BETWEEN TUCSON AND PHOENIX. ALSO MY POP FORECAST
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MAY
NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. FOR NOW I HAVE 20% POPS FOR ALL OF PIMA COUNTY
AS FAR WEST AS AJO.
MY POP FORECAST FOR FRIDAY SHOWS SIMILAR RAIN CHANCES AS FOR
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...MY CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY FORECAST BEING THAT
SIMILAR IS NOT HIGH. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM WEST OF BAJA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST...AND THE DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MOVES WEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE
FOCUS MY BE FARTHER WEST...WITH A BIT LESS EMPHASIS TOWARD NEW
MEXICO WHERE MODELS SUGGEST SOME DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO FILTER IN FROM
NEW MEXICO. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE POP FORECAST AS IS AND THE DAY
SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE THE SITUATION BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL
RUN.
AFTER FRIDAY LOOKING AT BASICALLY ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED
ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...THEN 1
TO 3 DEGS BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GLUECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
633 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT FOR THE REGION. A COLD FRONT AND A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE AGAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH LESS HUMID AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 632 PM EDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED
FOR THE REST OF AREA AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN CANCELED. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES...MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
TACONICS...AND PORTIONS OF NW CT FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. THE
FCST AREA IS IN BRIEF SUBSIDENCE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC
TROUGH...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORMING DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST.
THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMN REF SHOWS A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT STILL WELL
TO THE WEST OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA. THIS
LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AS IT MOVES INTO THE ALY FCST AREA
BTWN 00Z-02Z...AS THE SFC BASED INSTABILITY HAS WANED QUITE A BIT
BASED ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA WITH 500-1000 J/KG.
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SFC DEWPTS STILL IN THE 60S
AND SPOTTY LOWER 70S WITH ONLY WEAK COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE
MTNS AND NRN TIER...AND MID 60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED AND ROUND 2 OF
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. CLOUDS MAY BECOME A GREATER ISSUE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED AGAIN WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITH POCKETS
GREATER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BASED ON
THE NAM/GFS. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40
KTS...WITH MULTICELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE AGAIN. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE A LIFTING MECHANISM...THOUGH ANOTHER PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...AND MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALSO FOCUS
THE CONVECTION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS
STILL IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S TO
L70S. FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO BE A THREAT AGAIN...AND ADDITIONAL
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME.
SOME OF THESE INGREDIENTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT
/PRE/ WELL IN ADVANCE OF ARTHUR...BUT PERHAPS TODAY WAS A PRE
TOO. WE BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A PRE IS FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR
AREA BASED ON THE CSTAR RESEARCH IN NJ AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...A STRIPE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB...AND OVER PART OF WRN NEW ENGLAND BASED
THE CANADIAN...RFC AND NAM GUIDANCE. TRAINING LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOO...SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING
AGAIN. IT IS INTERESTING BEST JET DYNAMICS ARE DISPLACED FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST OVER WRN-NRN NY WITH A JET STREAK OF 75-100 KTS.
SOME OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT REAR QUAD. POPS WERE
KEPT IN THE HIGH LIKELY RANGE TOMORROW...AND THE HEAVY RAIN WAS
EMPHASIZED IN THE GRIDS. WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE HWO FOR TOMORROW. WILL A
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOT AS WARM AS
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE HILLS
AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS.
TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT TOWARD THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BY DAYBREAK...THE RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS LINGERING
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. ARTHUR LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST OF AREA FOR LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. COLD
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST FROM NW TO SE WITH H850 TEMPS OF
+8C TO +11C FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST...AND +11C TO +14C TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE M50S TO L60S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
INDEPENDENCE DAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN EXTREME OF THE FCST
AREA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. THIS WILL HELP
STEER ARTHUR FURTHER EAST OF THE EAST COAST. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S WITH A BRISK W/NW WIND IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION NW OF
ARTHUR. THE GFS HAS THE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING WITH
H850 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO +8C TO +11C OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
INDEPENDENCE DAY/FRI NIGHT...BEAUTIFUL...LOW HUMIDITY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR ANY FESTIVITIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND MIDWEST WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER WX. LOWS WILL
MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME U40S OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN
DACKS.
FOR ALL THE OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INTERNET SITE
(WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV).
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A QUICK EXTENDED FORECAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE WPC GUIDANCE
WAS FOLLOWED VERY CLOSELY EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR CHANGES NOTED BELOW.
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IS EXPECTED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +13C RANGE ON SATURDAY WITH W/NW
WINDS AND DEWPTS IN THE U40S TO M50S. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WITH A COOL
EVENING...AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
SUNDAY SHOULD STILL FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE...AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE FOR THE CLOSING OF THE 4TH OF JULY
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH U70S
TO L80S OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA...WITH LOWER TO M70S OVER THE
MTNS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINS TO RETURN TO
THE FCST AREA WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AND DEWPOINTS RISING
BACK INTO THE 60S. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS S-CNTRL
ONTARIO INTO SW QUEBEC. A WARM FRONT MAY GRAZE THE NW ZONES WITH A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY MORNING. A SFC TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK HEATING.
LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID AND POSSIBLY
U80S IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS...AND WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH
WILL BE IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE IS VARIABLE...AND WE FOLLOWED WPC WITH THE FROPA LIKELY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE DID NOT GO WITH
LIKELY POPS YET ON TUE...AND WENT WITH CHC VALUES INSTEAD. SOME
INDICATIONS OF INCREASED AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH THE GFS...AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SO A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED FOR TUE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS LATE WED.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MVFR/IFR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POTENTIAL IFR FOG TONIGHT...AND A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE
VFR...HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GROUPS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO IFR CONDITIONS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES BEGINNING AT THE ONSET OF THE TAF PERIOD AND PERSISTING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KNOTS...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 03/02Z...THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 18Z-00Z.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THEIR WAKE...PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH A TRENDING OF WINDS
TOWARDS CALM...IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. IFR FOG SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR FLYING CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS MAY
REACH KPOU BY 15Z AND HAVE INDICATED A PROB30 GROUP THERE WITH AN
ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THE
SHOWERS WILL END EARLY FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THEN ONLY
LOWER TO 55 TO 75 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT...AND
THEN BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST BY
INDEPENDENCE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT BASIN
AVERAGES OF A QUARTER INCH OR MORE ARE LIKELY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAYBE NEEDED TOMORROW IF TRAINING
CONVECTION MATERIALIZES AGAIN.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION TOMORROW...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT /PRE/ WELL NORTH TO
NORTHEAST OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR COULD BRING A BAND OF STEADY TO
HEAVY RAINFALL /WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS/ ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IF THIS BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
OCCURS...THEN AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR AN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR TOMORROW.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS COULD EXCEED AN INCH ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE.
AT THE VERY LEAST...SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW TO ACTION STAGES. NO
RIVER POINTS ARE FORECAST TO FLOOD AT THIS TIME...URBAN FLOODING
AND SMALL STREAM AND CREEKS FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IF HIGHER
AMOUNTS OCCUR.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOWS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...VTK/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
500 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE THREAT OF POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING ENDING. A COLD
FRONT AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AGAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH LESS HUMID AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #384 CONTINUES FOR DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM EDT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF ERN NY EXCLUDING NRN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...AND ALL OF WRN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 04Z/THU...
AS OF 500 PM EDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELED FOR MOST OF THE AREA AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC. THE TWO
COUNTIES IT WILL REMAIN UP FOR IS DUTCHES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
SEE OUR LOCAL STORMS REPORT WITH ALL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DAMAGE AND FLOODING.
TRAINING CONVECTION CONTINUES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
ADDITIONAL FFW/S MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PWATS OF 1.5-2.0" AND SFC DEWPTS IN THE U60 TO L70S.
CONVECTION IS RIDING ALONG A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE...AND GOOD
UPPER JET DYNAMICS NEAR THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 80-90 KT JET
STREAK. FFA ISSUED UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA...EXCEPT
THE SRN DACKS.
SOME BOWING SEGMENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE OVER THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SW NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMN
REF SHOWS A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SLIGHT OR LOW
CHANCE POPS THEREAFTER.
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SFC DEWPTS STILL IN THE 60S
AND SPOTTY LOWER 70S WITH ONLY WEAK COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE
MTNS AND NRN TIER...AND MID 60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED AND ROUND 2 OF
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. CLOUDS MAY BECOME A GREATER ISSUE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED AGAIN WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITH POCKETS
GREATER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BASED ON
THE NAM/GFS. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40
KTS...WITH MULTICELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE AGAIN. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE A LIFTING MECHANISM...THOUGH ANOTHER PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...AND MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALSO FOCUS
THE CONVECTION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS
STILL IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S TO
L70S. FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO BE A THREAT AGAIN...AND ADDITIONAL
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME.
SOME OF THESE INGREDIENTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT
/PRE/ WELL IN ADVANCE OF ARTHUR...BUT PERHAPS TODAY WAS A PRE
TOO. WE BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A PRE IS FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR
AREA BASED ON THE CSTAR RESEARCH IN NJ AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...A STRIPE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB...AND OVER PART OF WRN NEW ENGLAND BASED
THE CANADIAN...RFC AND NAM GUIDANCE. TRAINING LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOO...SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING
AGAIN. IT IS INTERESTING BEST JET DYNAMICS ARE DISPLACED FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST OVER WRN-NRN NY WITH A JET STREAK OF 75-100 KTS.
SOME OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT REAR QUAD. POPS WERE
KEPT IN THE HIGH LIKELY RANGE TOMORROW...AND THE HEAVY RAIN WAS
EMPHASIZED IN THE GRIDS. WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE HWO FOR TOMORROW. WILL A
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOT AS WARM AS
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE HILLS
AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS.
TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT TOWARD THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BY DAYBREAK...THE RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS LINGERING
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. ARTHUR LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST OF AREA FOR LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. COLD
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST FROM NW TO SE WITH H850 TEMPS OF
+8C TO +11C FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST...AND +11C TO +14C TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE M50S TO L60S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
INDEPENDENCE DAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN EXTREME OF THE FCST
AREA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. THIS WILL HELP
STEER ARTHUR FURTHER EAST OF THE EAST COAST. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S WITH A BRISK W/NW WIND IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION NW OF
ARTHUR. THE GFS HAS THE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING WITH
H850 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO +8C TO +11C OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
INDEPENDENCE DAY/FRI NIGHT...BEAUTIFUL...LOW HUMIDITY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR ANY FESTIVITIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND MIDWEST WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER WX. LOWS WILL
MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME U40S OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN
DACKS.
FOR ALL THE OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INTERNET SITE
(WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV).
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A QUICK EXTENDED FORECAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE WPC GUIDANCE
WAS FOLLOWED VERY CLOSELY EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR CHANGES NOTED BELOW.
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IS EXPECTED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +13C RANGE ON SATURDAY WITH W/NW
WINDS AND DEWPTS IN THE U40S TO M50S. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WITH A COOL
EVENING...AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
SUNDAY SHOULD STILL FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE...AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE FOR THE CLOSING OF THE 4TH OF JULY
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH U70S
TO L80S OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA...WITH LOWER TO M70S OVER THE
MTNS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINS TO RETURN TO
THE FCST AREA WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AND DEWPOINTS RISING
BACK INTO THE 60S. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS S-CNTRL
ONTARIO INTO SW QUEBEC. A WARM FRONT MAY GRAZE THE NW ZONES WITH A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY MORNING. A SFC TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK HEATING.
LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID AND POSSIBLY
U80S IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS...AND WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH
WILL BE IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE IS VARIABLE...AND WE FOLLOWED WPC WITH THE FROPA LIKELY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE DID NOT GO WITH
LIKELY POPS YET ON TUE...AND WENT WITH CHC VALUES INSTEAD. SOME
INDICATIONS OF INCREASED AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH THE GFS...AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SO A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED FOR TUE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS LATE WED.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MVFR/IFR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POTENTIAL IFR FOG TONIGHT...AND A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE
VFR...HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GROUPS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO IFR CONDITIONS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES BEGINNING AT THE ONSET OF THE TAF PERIOD AND PERSISTING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KNOTS...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 03/02Z...THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 18Z-00Z.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THEIR WAKE...PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH A TRENDING OF WINDS
TOWARDS CALM...IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. IFR FOG SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR FLYING CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS MAY
REACH KPOU BY 15Z AND HAVE INDICATED A PROB30 GROUP THERE WITH AN
ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THE
SHOWERS WILL END EARLY FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THEN ONLY
LOWER TO 55 TO 75 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT...AND
THEN BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST BY
INDEPENDENCE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT BASIN
AVERAGES OF A QUARTER INCH OR MORE ARE LIKELY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.
A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL OR
MORE IN A SHORT TIME...ALTHOUGH AVERAGE RAINFALL BASIN AVERAGES
WILL GENERALLY BE CLOSER TO A HALF OF AN INCH.
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD MOVES TOWARD THE REGION TOMORROW...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT /PRE/ WELL NORTHEAST OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR COULD BRING A BAND OF STEADY TO HEAVY
RAINFALL /WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS/ ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IF THIS BAND OF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS...THEN
AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR AN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
TOMORROW.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS COULD EXCEED AN INCH ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE.
AT THE VERY LEAST...SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW TO ACTION STAGES. NO
RIVER POINTS ARE FORECAST TO FLOOD AT THIS TIME...URBAN FLOODING
AND SMALL STREAM AND CREEKS FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IF HIGHER
AMOUNTS OCCUR.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOWS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...VTK/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
426 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE THREAT OF POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING ENDING. A COLD
FRONT AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AGAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH LESS HUMID AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #384 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 7 PM EDT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF ERN NY EXCLUDING NRN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...AND ALL OF WRN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 04Z/THU...
AS OF 425 PM EDT...TRAINING CONVECTION CONTINUES ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. ADDITIONAL FFW/S MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PWATS OF 1.5-2.0" AND SFC
DEWPTS IN THE U60 TO L70S. CONVECTION IS RIDING ALONG A LOW LEVEL
THETA-E RIDGE...AND GOOD UPPER JET DYNAMICS NEAR THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF A 80-90 KT JET STREAK. FFA ISSUED UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR
ENTIRE FCST AREA...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS.
MAY BE ABLE TO DROP SOME OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
SOON...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS STARTING TO POP UP JUST NORTH
OF KBGM. WILL HOLD ONTO THE WATCH FOR A LITTLE LONGER. SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SW NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMN REF SHOWS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND SE CANADA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FORECAST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS
THEREAFTER.
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SFC DEWPTS STILL IN THE 60S
AND SPOTTY LOWER 70S WITH ONLY WEAK COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE
MTNS AND NRN TIER...AND MID 60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED AND ROUND 2 OF
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. CLOUDS MAY BECOME A GREATER ISSUE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED AGAIN WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITH POCKETS
GREATER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BASED ON
THE NAM/GFS. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40
KTS...WITH MULTICELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE AGAIN. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE A LIFTING MECHANISM...THOUGH ANOTHER PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...AND MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALSO FOCUS
THE CONVECTION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS
STILL IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S TO
L70S. FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO BE A THREAT AGAIN...AND ADDITIONAL
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME.
SOME OF THESE INGREDIENTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT
/PRE/ WELL IN ADVANCE OF ARTHUR...BUT PERHAPS TODAY WAS A PRE
TOO. WE BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A PRE IS FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR
AREA BASED ON THE CSTAR RESEARCH IN NJ AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...A STRIPE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB...AND OVER PART OF WRN NEW ENGLAND BASED
THE CANADIAN...RFC AND NAM GUIDANCE. TRAINING LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOO...SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING
AGAIN. IT IS INTERESTING BEST JET DYNAMICS ARE DISPLACED FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST OVER WRN-NRN NY WITH A JET STREAK OF 75-100 KTS.
SOME OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT REAR QUAD. POPS WERE
KEPT IN THE HIGH LIKELY RANGE TOMORROW...AND THE HEAVY RAIN WAS
EMPHASIZED IN THE GRIDS. WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE HWO FOR TOMORROW. WILL A
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOT AS WARM AS
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE HILLS
...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS.
TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT TOWARD THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BY DAYBREAK...THE RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS LINGERING
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. ARTHUR LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST OF AREA FOR LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. COLD
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST FROM NW TO SE WITH H850 TEMPS OF
+8C TO +11C FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST...AND +11C TO +14C TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE M50S TO L60S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
INDEPENDENCE DAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN EXTREME OF THE FCST
AREA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. THIS WILL HELP
STEER ARTHUR FURTHER EAST OF THE EAST COAST. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S WITH A BRISK W/NW WIND IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION NW OF
ARTHUR. THE GFS HAS THE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING WITH
H850 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO +8C TO +11C OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
INDEPENDENCE DAY/FRI NIGHT...BEAUTIFUL...LOW HUMIDITY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR ANY FESTIVITIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND MIDWEST WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER WX. LOWS WILL
MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME U40S OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN
DACKS.
FOR ALL THE OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INTERNET SITE
(WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV).
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A QUICK EXTENDED FORECAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE WPC GUIDANCE
WAS FOLLOWED VERY CLOSELY EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR CHANGES NOTED BELOW.
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IS EXPECTED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +13C RANGE ON SATURDAY WITH W/NW
WINDS AND DEWPTS IN THE U40S TO M50S. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WITH A COOL
EVENING...AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
SUNDAY SHOULD STILL FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE...AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE FOR THE CLOSING OF THE 4TH OF JULY
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH U70S
TO L80S OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA...WITH LOWER TO M70S OVER THE
MTNS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINS TO RETURN TO
THE FCST AREA WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AND DEWPOINTS RISING
BACK INTO THE 60S. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS S-CNTRL
ONTARIO INTO SW QUEBEC. A WARM FRONT MAY GRAZE THE NW ZONES WITH A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY MORNING. A SFC TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK HEATING.
LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID AND POSSIBLY
U80S IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS...AND WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH
WILL BE IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE IS VARIABLE...AND WE FOLLOWED WPC WITH THE FROPA LIKELY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE DID NOT GO WITH
LIKELY POPS YET ON TUE...AND WENT WITH CHC VALUES INSTEAD. SOME
INDICATIONS OF INCREASED AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH THE GFS...AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SO A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED FOR TUE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS LATE WED.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MVFR/IFR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POTENTIAL IFR FOG TONIGHT...AND A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE
VFR...HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GROUPS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO IFR CONDITIONS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES BEGINNING AT THE ONSET OF THE TAF PERIOD AND PERSISTING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KNOTS...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 03/02Z...THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 18Z-00Z.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THEIR WAKE...PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH A TRENDING OF WINDS
TOWARDS CALM...IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. IFR FOG SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR FLYING CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS MAY
REACH KPOU BY 15Z AND HAVE INDICATED A PROB30 GROUP THERE WITH AN
ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THE
SHOWERS WILL END EARLY FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THEN ONLY
LOWER TO 55 TO 75 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT...AND
THEN BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST BY
INDEPENDENCE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT BASIN
AVERAGES OF A QUARTER INCH OR MORE ARE LIKELY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.
A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL OR
MORE IN A SHORT TIME...ALTHOUGH AVERAGE RAINFALL BASIN AVERAGES
WILL GENERALLY BE CLOSER TO A HALF OF AN INCH.
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD MOVES TOWARD THE REGION TOMORROW...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT /PRE/ WELL NORTHEAST OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR COULD BRING A BAND OF STEADY TO HEAVY
RAINFALL /WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS/ ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IF THIS BAND OF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS...THEN
AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR AN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
TOMORROW.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS COULD EXCEED AN INCH ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE.
AT THE VERY LEAST...SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW TO ACTION STAGES. NO
RIVER POINTS ARE FORECAST TO FLOOD AT THIS TIME...URBAN FLOODING
AND SMALL STREAM AND CREEKS FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IF HIGHER
AMOUNTS OCCUR.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOWS TO RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...VTK/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
141 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
COLD FRONT SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE WITH ENHANCED CUMULUS FIELD FROM
NW OH AND WESTERN KY. FRONT ALSO APPARENT ON SURFACE DEWPOINT AND
WIND FIELD ANALYSIS. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM HWO. UPDATED GRIDS FOR
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND SENT TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
DIFFUSE FRONTAL OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS JUST TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THIS SHOWS UP IN SURFACE DEWPOINT AND
WIND ANALYSIS. A SECONDARY FRONT WHICH IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINT AIR IS FROM NW OHIO TO NW AR AND JUST ENTERING
INTO FAR WESTERN KY. THIS BOUNDARY IS ALSO APPARENT ON SURFACE WIND
AND DEWPOINT ANALYSIS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THESE FEATURES WILL
TEND TO SERVE AS FOCUS AREAS FOR CONVECTION...AND THIS IDEA IS
DEPICTED IN THE LATEST HRRR. WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REMOVED RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL NOT PASS TO OUR EAST UNTIL
TONIGHT SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
TONIGHT PERIOD. HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
AFTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT...RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW A CLEAR SCOPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AM STILL A
BIT CONCERNED AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA. GIVEN THE DECENT RELIABILITY
OF THE HRRR OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AM STILL A BIT CONCERNED
THAT LATEST RUNS ARE SHOWING NO POPS OVER KY...NOR IS THE NAM12. WILL
KEEP WITH OFFICIAL POPS FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE HOW THIS
SYSTEM ENDS UP PANNING OUT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON
TRACK. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND
WINDS TO MAKE SURE THAT CURRENT FORECAST IS ON PAR WITH ONGOING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
PRECIPITATION JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...NOW PARKED JUST TO
OUR NW...DIED DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN KY EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS LACK OF GOOD FORCING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD STILL
DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...SO CHOSE
TO LEAVE IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. BY THIS MORNING...INCREASING
TEMPS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO POP UP ONCE MORE. DO HAVE A FEW CONCERNS
HOWEVER. FIRST IS THE GENERAL DIRECTIONAL FLOW. THERE IS HIGH WATER
CONTENT...BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH VERY LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME DECENT SPEED SHEAR...SO
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO HAVE A DECENT
RATE OF SPEED...DROP SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND MAYBE A
FEW GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL AS THEY QUICKLY PULSE DOWN.
THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE MODEL AGREEMENT FOR POPS...AND ALSO HOW
THEY LINE UP WITH THE CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BASED ON THE LATEST FRONTAL ANALYSIS...THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN KY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.
WRLY WINDS...INCLUDING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WILL BEGIN PULLING IN
EVEN DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA BY 18Z BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THAT BEING SAID...BOTH THE NAM12 AND HRRR HAVE HARDLY ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS KY...AND WHAT DOES WILL BE EAST OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL QPF TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT...BUT MUCH LIGHTER IN NATURE. ACCORDING TO THIS
SOLUTION THE BEST CONVECTION WILL STILL BE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND
PIN POINTED OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF FAR EASTERN KY. THE GFS IS THE
OUTLIER AND PUTS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AND EVEN
INTO CENTRAL KY...INCLUDING AREAS THAT ARE POST FRONTAL. WITH ALL OF
THIS IN MIND...WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND AND THEN DID SOME EDITING TO
GEAR MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF THINKING...WITH SCATTERED POPS POSSIBLE
OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION POST FRONTAL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF.
POPS WILL CONTINUE TO DIE DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE STATE AND THEN BECOMES STALLED
OUT ONCE MORE. KEPT MENTION OF POPS IN FAR EASTERN KY THROUGH THURS
MORNING AS A RESULT OF THIS DELAYED MOVEMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S...WITH THE COOLEST AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA CORRESPONDING
WITH EXPECTED LATE NIGHT CLEARING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH GENERAL FLOW PULLING IN FROM THE NW...ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
THE MODELS ARE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN
ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL
TRANSLATE A SEASONABLY DEEP GREAT LAKES TROUGH EAST INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES AS IT FILLS. IN THE PROCESS...IT MANAGES TO PICK UP
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR CURRENTLY RATED AS A TROPICAL STORM BUT
FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST A STRONG CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST AND MOST REASONABLE WITH THIS
INTERACTION AND LIKEWISE SLOWS THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY. NEVERTHELESS...EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE SPARED ANY
MOISTURE OR PCPN FROM THIS AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. RISING HEIGHTS DURING THIS PROCESS WILL KEEP THE
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM CAUSING ANY TROUBLE FOR OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL FLATTEN
AND KENTUCKY WILL BE AT THE MERCY OF WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...AND BEYOND. ONE OF
THESE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LOWER HEIGHTS LOCALLY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY HEADS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ANOTHER WAVE FOLLOWS IN THE WEAK FLOW FOR LATER
TUESDAY AND SHOULD HELP TRIGGER MORE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST. AFTER FAVORING THE ECMWF
INITIALLY...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD A MODEL BLEND FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A MUCH WELCOMED AREA OF COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS HIGH BRINGS TEMPERATURES A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
FROM THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS QUICKLY SETS THE STAGE FOR A
RETURN OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES PEAK TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ALONG WITH THE STORM CHANCES...THE HEAT
WILL RETURN WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
DURING THE NEW WORK WEEK.
THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS EACH AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY TO
TUESDAY TO REFLECT THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. ALSO...
TWEAKED THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIDGE
TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NW OH TO FAR WESTERN KY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL NOT PUT ANY
THUNDER IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
354 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387 CONTINUES OVER MANY OF OUR LA
PARISHES SOUTH OF I-20...ALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MORNING/S
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW STRETCHING FROM TOLEDO BEND TO
JONESBORO AND NEAR MONROE. PROGRESSION OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
GOOD TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UPDATES WILL LIKELY TRIM MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE WATCH BEFORE 9PM. SO FAR...SOME GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING...BUT WITH 90 PLUS HEAT IN PROGRESS FOR A
WHILE...ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA. TO
NOTE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG THE COOL
FRONT OVER CENTRAL AR.
AT THIS TIME...LIGHT NW FLOW IS IN THE LOWER LEVELS THERE OVER
AR...BUT THE MODELS AND OUR FORECAST ARE INDICATING A BACKDOOR
PUSH TOWARD SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT. SO...THERE IS SOME GLIMMER OF
HOPE WITH A CONVECTIVE ASSIST FOR OTHER AREAS THAT WERE SKIPPED
OVER DURING THE LATE MORNING AS THE OUTFLOW PASSED BY UNEVENTFUL.
HOWEVER...NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS OFTEN HAVE THERE OWN GAME IN
MIND WITH ONLY THE HRRR CLOSE IN INITIALIZING THIS NEW AR
ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...LITTLE SUPPORT ELSEWHERE AMONGST
THE GUIDANCE QPF.
THE UPPER LEVELS MAY ASSIST AS WELL WITH ANOTHER VORT DIVING INTO
THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA
OF NB/IA/KN/MO. THE TAIL OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO PLAY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT FOR
ANYTHING THAT MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET. A LARGE RIDGE IS SWINGING
IN BEHIND THAT FEATURE AND USUALLY MEANS DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A GOOD DEVELOPING...MOIST UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A PRETTY GOOD SEA BREEZE IS PUSHING IN OVER
THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND UNDER THIS UPPER LOW. SO LOTS TO KEEP UP
WITH AND HOPEFULLY FOR THE 00Z RUN TO INITIALIZE WITH AND PUT A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE INDEPENDENCE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR NOW A
DRYING TREND AND COOLER TOO...MAV/MEX IS BLENDED AND POINTS TO SOME
VERY NICE JULY MORNING/S. HIGHS TOO WILL BE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE
FOR A COUPLE TO FEW DAYS IN THE WAKE OF OUR COOL FRONT. /24/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
AVIATION...
MCS ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY
MID LVL CLOUDS...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE KTXK..KELD...KSHV...AND KMLU TERMINAL AREAS BEFORE
03/00Z. AFTN CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE AT THESE SITE.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES THRU MOST OF PERIOD. COOL
FRONT TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF AREA WITH DRIER AIRMASS. HOWEVER..
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT KLFK PRIOR TO FROPA LATE TONIGHT. /VII/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 91 67 90 67 / 30 30 20 10 10
MLU 70 89 64 88 64 / 50 20 10 10 10
DEQ 63 88 62 88 63 / 30 20 10 10 10
TXK 68 87 65 88 65 / 30 20 10 10 10
ELD 68 88 62 88 62 / 30 20 10 10 10
TYR 75 91 71 90 70 / 30 40 20 20 10
GGG 72 91 68 89 67 / 30 30 20 10 10
LFK 74 93 72 90 68 / 30 40 20 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1224 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.AVIATION...
MCS ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY
MID LVL CLOUDS...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE KTXK..KELD...KSHV...AND KMLU TERMINAL AREAS BEFORE
03/00Z. AFTN CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE AT THESE SITE.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES THRU MOST OF PERIOD. COOL
FRONT TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF AREA WITH DRIER AIRMASS. HOWEVER..
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT KLFK PRIOR TO FROPA LATE TONIGHT. /VII/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WELL SO MUCH POTENTIAL GOING BY THE WAY SIDE WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA NOW FROM OIL CITY TO ROCKY
MOUNT. A GOOD DEAL OF COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FOR SHREVEPORT WITH A
RISING BAROMETER AND ALREADY AT THE 90 DEGREE MARK. ADDITIONAL
CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST HIGH IN THE MID 90S.
ELSEWHERE...SOME ACTIVE SHOWERS ON THE OUTFLOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. WE HAVE LOWERED HIGHS OVER MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS
FOR SATURATED SOIL AND THE CLOUDS. THERE IS NICE CUMULUS FIELD
SOUTH OF I-20 IN LOUISIANA...BUT HRRR MODEL IS STILL GENEROUS EVEN
NORTH OF OUTFLOW. WE HAVE LOWERED MOST OF THE 50 POPS FOR ALL AREAS
ESPECIALLY NORTH FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT SOUTH ARKANSAS.
THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A GOOD LITTLE VORT THAT HELPED
INITIATE THE MORNING CONVECTION...NOW QUICKLY BEING SHUNTED EAST
NORTH EAST AND IS OVER THE BOOT HEAL OF MO. A SECONDARY LARGER
VORT IS OVER E NB AND MAY ALSO BE SHUNTED EAST BY ALL OF THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS ANVIL OVER THE TX/OK
PANDLE. SO THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON ANY CHANGES TO POPS FOR THIS
EVENING OR TOMORROW...BUT NEW NAM IS KEEPING CHANCE FOR NOW SO WE
MAY INCREASE THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING. NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY MAY
BE OUR BEST HOPE FOR RAINFALL AREA WIDE AS THE 12Z GFS IS HINTING.
/24/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM JUST N OF
DALLAS TO TEXARKANA. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SWD TODAY...AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO MO AND GIVES IT A NUDGE. WE SHOULD GET
SOME DECENT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT. TEMP-WISE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME DECENT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TODAY`S
FCST MAX TEMPS REFLECT THAT POSSIBILITY.
AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES THE UPPER TROF FURTHER E TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL AND BECOME MORE NW TO SE
ORIENTED. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS OUR FCST TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THIS WORK WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. CHANCES
FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE NOSE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE INTRUDES INTO TX.
WITH WEAK UPPER FLOW AND A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PD...WITH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO RATCHET UP TO AND EVEN ABOVE NORMAL. /12/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 95 73 90 69 92 / 30 20 30 20 10
MLU 96 72 89 66 89 / 40 20 20 10 10
DEQ 88 66 87 64 90 / 40 20 20 10 10
TXK 90 69 87 66 89 / 40 20 20 10 10
ELD 90 69 88 64 89 / 50 20 20 10 10
TYR 93 74 90 71 92 / 30 20 40 20 20
GGG 94 74 90 70 92 / 30 20 30 20 10
LFK 96 75 92 72 93 / 20 20 40 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1142 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WELL SO MUCH POTENTIAL GOING BY THE WAY SIDE WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA NOW FROM OIL CITY TO ROCKY
MOUNT. A GOOD DEAL OF COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FOR SHREVEPORT WITH A
RISING BAROMETER AND ALREADY AT THE 90 DEGREE MARK. ADDITIONAL
CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST HIGH IN THE MID 90S.
ELSEWHERE...SOME ACTIVE SHOWERS ON THE OUTFLOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. WE HAVE LOWERED HIGHS OVER MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS
FOR SATURATED SOIL AND THE CLOUDS. THERE IS NICE CUMULUS FIELD
SOUTH OF I-20 IN LOUISIANA...BUT HRRR MODEL IS STILL GENEROUS EVEN
NORTH OF OUTFLOW. WE HAVE LOWERED MOST OF THE 50 POPS FOR ALL AREAS
ESPECIALLY NORTH FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT SOUTH ARKANSAS.
THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A GOOD LITTLE VORT THAT HELPED
INITIATE THE MORNING CONVECTION...NOW QUICKLY BEING SHUNTED EAST
NORTH EAST AND IS OVER THE BOOT HEAL OF MO. A SECONDARY LARGER
VORT IS OVER E NB AND MAY ALSO BE SHUNTED EAST BY ALL OF THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS ANVIL OVER THE TX/OK
PANDLE. SO THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON ANY CHANGES TO POPS FOR THIS
EVENING OR TOMORROW...BUT NEW NAM IS KEEPING CHANCE FOR NOW SO WE
MAY INCREASE THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING. NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY MAY
BE OUR BEST HOPE FOR RAINFALL AREA WIDE AS THE 12Z GFS IS HINTING.
/24/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...THE MAIN FLIGHT CONCERN FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL MOVE SOUTH
WITH A SURFACE FRONT. BRIEF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AND AROUND THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER TSTMS.
TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AREA WIDE AROUND 03/00Z...BUT AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH...THE CONVECTION SHOULD END EARLIER FOR AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 30. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER WITH SURFACE
WIND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
ALL AREAS BY SUNSET. SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. /14/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM JUST N OF
DALLAS TO TEXARKANA. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SWD TODAY...AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO MO AND GIVES IT A NUDGE. WE SHOULD GET
SOME DECENT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT. TEMP-WISE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME DECENT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TODAY`S
FCST MAX TEMPS REFLECT THAT POSSIBILITY.
AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES THE UPPER TROF FURTHER E TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL AND BECOME MORE NW TO SE
ORIENTED. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS OUR FCST TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THIS WORK WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. CHANCES
FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE NOSE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE INTRUDES INTO TX.
WITH WEAK UPPER FLOW AND A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PD...WITH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO RATCHET UP TO AND EVEN ABOVE NORMAL. /12/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 95 73 90 69 92 / 30 20 30 20 10
MLU 96 72 89 66 89 / 40 20 20 10 10
DEQ 88 66 87 64 90 / 40 20 20 10 10
TXK 90 69 87 66 89 / 40 20 20 10 10
ELD 90 69 88 64 89 / 50 20 20 10 10
TYR 93 74 90 71 92 / 30 20 40 20 20
GGG 94 74 90 70 92 / 30 20 30 20 10
LFK 96 75 92 72 93 / 20 20 40 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
502 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LATE TODAY AND THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S PUSHING HEAT INDICES
AS WARM AS 105 TO 107. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE EVEN APPROACHED
RECORD TERRITORY. WARM TEMPS/DEWPOINTS HAVE RESULTED IN AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LATEST SPC ANALYSIS DEPICTING MLCAPE FROM
2500-3000 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD
AREA OF CU DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS A SFC TROUGH LOCATES
OVER CNTRL VA. ALOFT...A WEAK VORT MAX DEPICTED IN THE RUC AND
VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTS INTO VA FROM THE SW. WHILE
THUNDERSTORM PARAMETERS AND MOISTURE REMAIN RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...WARM AIR AROUND H7 HAS CAPPED THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN RATHER FLAT CU. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
AIRMASS...STILL ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING. BEST
COVERAGE STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND.
INVERTED V SOUNDING WOULD MAKE STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE A BIT THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A VERY
MOIST BL AND SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH...ALL BUT FAR SE ZONES COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDER OVERNIGHT. MILD AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TWO MAIN FEATURES TO FOCUS ON IN THE SHORT TERM ARE 1. WHAT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME CAT 1 HURRICANE ARTHUR AND 2. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE LOCAL
AREA THURS AS ARTHUR PICKS UP FORWARD SPEED ALONG THE SE COAST.
ADDED TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED (VISIBLE ON 310K SFC AND H85 FLOW)
WILL PUSH PRECIP WATERS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF THE LOCAL
AREA. ADDED UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT THURS INTO THURS NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT LATE THURS MORNING-EARLY THURS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE REGION. WITH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS ANY IMPACTS DIRECTLY RELATED
TO ARTHUR WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SE COAST. BASED ON THE SLOW
FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT AND CORFIDI VECTORS...TRAINING OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER CNTRL VA. BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND LACK OF ANY THERMAL ADVECTION MAKES THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY PRECIP DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. AS A
RESULT...KEPT WITH WPC GUIDANCE WITH PLACING THE CORRIDOR OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN
SHORE. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS OF TRAINING. MEANWHILE BACK AT THE
COAST...HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL LIFT ALONG THE SC/NC COAST THURS.
ADDED CONVERGENCE AROUND THE BANDS WILL SPREAD INTO NE NC/SE
VA...WITH PRECIP REACHING INTO NE NC BY LATE THURS.
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE INTERACTIONS BTWN THE FRONT AND CYCLONE WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS RATHER HIGH...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES
ATTM. HIGH TIDE CYCLES COULD EXACERBATE ANY MINOR FLOODING ALONG
THE COAST. OCCASIONAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ALSO EXPECTED
(GUSTS 40-50 MPH) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NC COAST.
ARTHUR BEGINS TO LIFT OFF THE NC COAST FRIDAY MORNING...SWEEPING
THE FRONT THROUGH AS IT EXITS. THE RESULT WILL BE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...BUT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL GIVE HOPE TO FOURTH OF JULY EVENING PLANS ACROSS
INTERIOR VA/NC. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE ERN SHORE
THROUGH FRI EVENING. COOLER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID
80S.
THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THRU
SAT AS ~1025MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING
OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE SAT. HIGHS SAT IN THE LOW-MID 80S AS
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH
MID WEEK. MODELS SHOW A LEE TROF DVLPNG TUE WITH THE NEXT FRONT
APPRCHG FROM THE WEST WED. DRY SUN/MON. CHC POPS (20-30%) TUE/WED
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS WRN HALF OF FA.
STILL COMFY THRU SUN. LOWS SAT NITE IN THE U50S-U60S. HIGHS SUN
M-U80S. RETURN FLOW ALLOWS HEAT/HUMIDITY TO RETURN NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
90-95. LOWS U60S-M70S.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH HI PRES JUST OFFSHORE AND
A COLD FRNT WELL W OF THE AREA. SSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CU AROUND 5K FT. CHANCE OF RAIN IS TOO LO THIS
AFTN/EVENG (20-30%) TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF RAIN OUT. ANY TSTMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE PSBL THUR MORNG
ESPECIALLY AT KSBY DUE TO HIGH LO-LEVEL MOISTURE DESPITE ~10 KT
WINDS. KEPT IT P6SM ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN COMES
LATE THUR/THUR NGT DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND MOISTURE
FM TS ARTHUR.
PREDOMINANTLY S WINDS ON THUR SHOULD BACK AROUND TO A MORE NLY
DIRECTION THUR NGT INTO FRI. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO OCCUR IN NE NC AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF VA...WHERE GUSTS TO
25-35 KT ARE ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LOW
CIGS...AND POOR VSBYS SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED. OVERALL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE RAPIDLY AS FRI PROGRESSES AND HI PRES BLDS BACK INTO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH MARGINAL...WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINE UP FOR THE CHES BAY
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT AS PRS GRDNT TIGHTENS A BIT. WINDS MAY
DROP BLO SCA LVLS LATE.
FCST THEN FOCUSES ON TRPLCL STORM ARTHUR AS IT CONTS TO MOVE N
ALONG THE SE COAST AND INTO THE NC OUTER BANKS THURS NIGHT. ARTHUR
IS XPCTD TO MERGE WITH THE CD FRNT AND DEEPEN OFF THE MID ATLNTC
COAST FRI EVE...THEN TRACK RAPIDLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
TRPLCL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE S OF THE VA/NC LINE WITH GUSTS
BTWN 40-45 KTS XPCTD THURS NIGHT/FRI MORN. FCST PRBLM IS WHAT TO
DO JUST N OF THAT LINE GIVEN ANY GUSTS TO 35 KTS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT. EXPECT THE STRNGST GUSTS TO BE NEAR THE NC BORDER.
OTW...CONFIDENCE (IN WIND FCST) NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANY
HEADLINE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. SEAS WILL BUILD ABV 5 FT...BUT NOT UNTIL
FRI ACROSS NRN WATERS SO DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FRTHR
N WITH THIS PACKAGE. SCA OR PSBL GALE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRTHR N ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST FRI. XPCT WAVES TO BUILD TO
4-5 FT AND SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8 FT (10-14 FT POSSIBLE IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS) DURING MOST OF FRIDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING.
GUSTY NW WINDS XPCTD FOR SVRL HRS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTM LATE FRI
WITH IMPROVING CNDTNS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA.
RIP CRNT FCSTS DISCONTINED FOR AREAS UNDR TRPLCL HEADLINES.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR VAZ095-097-098.
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ098.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ633-634-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...BMD/MAS
MARINE...MPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
410 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LATE TODAY AND THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S PUSHING HEAT INDICES
AS WARM AS 105 TO 107. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE EVEN APPROACHED
RECORD TERRITORY. WARM TEMPS/DEWPOINTS HAVE RESULTED IN AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LATEST SPC ANALYSIS DEPICTING MLCAPE FROM
2500-3000 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD
AREA OF CU DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS A SFC TROUGH LOCATES
OVER CNTRL VA. ALOFT...A WEAK VORT MAX DEPICTED IN THE RUC AND
VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTS INTO VA FROM THE SW. WHILE
THUNDERSTORM PARAMETERS AND MOISTURE REMAIN RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...WARM AIR AROUND H7 HAS CAPPED THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN RATHER FLAT CU. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
AIRMASS...STILL ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING. BEST
COVERAGE STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND.
INVERTED V SOUNDING WOULD MAKE STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE A BIT THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A VERY
MOIST BL AND SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH...ALL BUT FAR SE ZONES COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDER OVERNIGHT. MILD AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TWO MAIN FEATURES TO FOCUS ON IN THE SHORT TERM ARE 1. WHAT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME CAT 1 HURRICANE ARTHUR AND 2. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE LOCAL
AREA THURS AS ARTHUR PICKS UP FORWARD SPEED ALONG THE SE COAST.
ADDED TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED (VISIBLE ON 310K SFC AND H85 FLOW)
WILL PUSH PRECIP WATERS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF THE LOCAL
AREA. ADDED UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT THURS INTO THURS NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT LATE THURS MORNING-EARLY THURS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE REGION. WITH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS ANY IMPACTS DIRECTLY RELATED
TO ARTHUR WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SE COAST. BASED ON THE SLOW
FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT AND CORFIDI VECTORS...TRAINING OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER CNTRL VA. BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND LACK OF ANY THERMAL ADVECTION MAKES THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY PRECIP DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. AS A
RESULT...KEPT WITH WPC GUIDANCE WITH PLACING THE CORRIDOR OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN
SHORE. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS OF TRAINING. MEANWHILE BACK AT THE
COAST...HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL LIFT ALONG THE SC/NC COAST THURS.
ADDED CONVERGENCE AROUND THE BANDS WILL SPREAD INTO NE NC/SE
VA...WITH PRECIP REACHING INTO NE NC BY LATE THURS.
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE INTERACTIONS BTWN THE FRONT AND CYCLONE WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS RATHER HIGH...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES
ATTM. HIGH TIDE CYCLES COULD EXACERBATE ANY MINOR FLOODING ALONG
THE COAST. OCCASIONAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ALSO EXPECTED
(GUSTS 40-50 MPH) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NC COAST.
ARTHUR BEGINS TO LIFT OFF THE NC COAST FRIDAY MORNING...SWEEPING
THE FRONT THROUGH AS IT EXITS. THE RESULT WILL BE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...BUT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL GIVE HOPE TO FOURTH OF JULY EVENING PLANS ACROSS
INTERIOR VA/NC. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE ERN SHORE
THROUGH FRI EVENING. COOLER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID
80S.
THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THRU
SAT AS ~1025MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING
OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE SAT. HIGHS SAT IN THE LOW-MID 80S AS
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH
MID WEEK. MODELS SHOW A LEE TROF DVLPNG TUE WITH THE NEXT FRONT
APPRCHG FROM THE WEST WED. DRY SUN/MON. CHC POPS (20-30%) TUE/WED
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS WRN HALF OF FA.
STILL COMFY THRU SUN. LOWS SAT NITE IN THE U50S-U60S. HIGHS SUN
M-U80S. RETURN FLOW ALLOWS HEAT/HUMIDITY TO RETURN NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
90-95. LOWS U60S-M70S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH HI PRES JUST OFFSHORE AND
A COLD FRNT WELL W OF THE AREA. SSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CU AROUND 5K FT. CHANCE OF RAIN IS TOO LO THIS
AFTN/EVENG (20-30%) TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF RAIN OUT. ANY TSTMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE PSBL THUR MORNG
ESPECIALLY AT KSBY DUE TO HIGH LO-LEVEL MOISTURE DESPITE ~10 KT
WINDS. KEPT IT P6SM ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN COMES
LATE THUR/THUR NGT DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND MOISTURE
FM TS ARTHUR.
PREDOMINANTLY S WINDS ON THUR SHOULD BACK AROUND TO A MORE NLY
DIRECTION THUR NGT INTO FRI. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO OCCUR IN NE NC AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF VA...WHERE GUSTS TO
25-35 KT ARE ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LOW
CIGS...AND POOR VSBYS SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED. OVERALL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE RAPIDLY AS FRI PROGRESSES AND HI PRES BLDS BACK INTO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH MARGINAL...WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINE UP FOR THE CHES BAY
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT AS PRS GRDNT TIGHTENS A BIT. WINDS MAY
DROP BLO SCA LVLS LATE.
FCST THEN FOCUSES ON TRPLCL STORM ARTHUR AS IT CONTS TO MOVE N
ALONG THE SE COAST AND INTO THE NC OUTER BANKS THURS NIGHT. ARTHUR
IS XPCTD TO MERGE WITH THE CD FRNT AND DEEPEN OFF THE MID ATLNTC
COAST FRI EVE...THEN TRACK RAPIDLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
TRPLCL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE S OF THE VA/NC LINE WITH GUSTS
BTWN 40-45 KTS XPCTD THURS NIGHT/FRI MORN. FCST PRBLM IS WHAT TO
DO JUST N OF THAT LINE GIVEN ANY GUSTS TO 35 KTS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT. EXPECT THE STRNGST GUSTS TO BE NEAR THE NC BORDER.
OTW...CONFIDENCE (IN WIND FCST) NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANY
HEADLINE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. SEAS WILL BUILD ABV 5 FT...BUT NOT UNTIL
FRI ACROSS NRN WATERS SO DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FRTHR
N WITH THIS PACKAGE. SCA OR PSBL GALE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRTHR N ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST FRI. XPCT WAVES TO BUILD TO
4-5 FT AND SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8 FT (10-14 FT POSSIBLE IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS) DURING MOST OF FRIDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING.
GUSTY NW WINDS XPCTD FOR SVRL HRS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTM LATE FRI
WITH IMPROVING CNDTNS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA.
RIP CRNT FCSTS DISCONTINED FOR AREAS UNDR TRPLCL HEADLINES.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ015>017-032-102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ098.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ633-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...BMD/MAS
MARINE...MPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
353 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LATE TODAY AND THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S PUSHING HEAT INDICES
AS WARM AS 105 TO 107. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE EVEN APPROACHED
RECORD TERRITORY. WARM TEMPS/DEWPOINTS HAVE RESULTED IN AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LATEST SPC ANALYSIS DEPICTING MLCAPE FROM
2500-3000 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD
AREA OF CU DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS A SFC TROUGH LOCATES
OVER CNTRL VA. ALOFT...A WEAK VORT MAX DEPICTED IN THE RUC AND
VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTS INTO VA FROM THE SW. WHILE
THUNDERSTORM PARAMETERS AND MOISTURE REMAIN RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...WARM AIR AROUND H7 HAS CAPPED THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN RATHER FLAT CU. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
AIRMASS...STILL ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING. BEST
COVERAGE STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND.
INVERTED V SOUNDING WOULD MAKE STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE A BIT THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A VERY
MOIST BL AND SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH...ALL BUT FAR SE ZONES COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDER OVERNIGHT. MILD AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TWO MAIN FEATURES TO FOCUS ON IN THE SHORT TERM ARE 1. WHAT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME CAT 1 HURRICANE ARTHUR AND 2. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE LOCAL
AREA THURS AS ARTHUR PICKS UP FORWARD SPEED ALONG THE SE COAST.
ADDED TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED (VISIBLE ON 310K SFC AND H85 FLOW)
WILL PUSH PRECIP WATERS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF THE LOCAL
AREA. ADDED UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT THURS INTO THURS NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT LATE THURS MORNING-EARLY THURS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE REGION. WITH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS ANY IMPACTS DIRECTLY RELATED
TO ARTHUR WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SE COAST. BASED ON THE SLOW
FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT AND CORFIDI VECTORS...TRAINING OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER CNTRL VA. BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND LACK OF ANY THERMAL ADVECTION MAKES THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY PRECIP DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. AS A
RESULT...KEPT WITH WPC GUIDANCE WITH PLACING THE CORRIDOR OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN
SHORE. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS OF TRAINING. MEANWHILE BACK AT THE
COAST...HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL LIFT ALONG THE SC/NC COAST THURS.
ADDED CONVERGENCE AROUND THE BANDS WILL SPREAD INTO NE NC/SE
VA...WITH PRECIP REACHING INTO NE NC BY LATE THURS.
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE INTERACTIONS BTWN THE FRONT AND CYCLONE WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS RATHER HIGH...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES
ATTM. HIGH TIDE CYCLES COULD EXACERBATE ANY MINOR FLOODING ALONG
THE COAST. OCCASIONAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ALSO EXPECTED
(GUSTS 40-50 MPH) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NC COAST.
ARTHUR BEGINS TO LIFT OFF THE NC COAST FRIDAY MORNING...SWEEPING
THE FRONT THROUGH AS IT EXITS. THE RESULT WILL BE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...BUT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL GIVE HOPE TO FOURTH OF JULY EVENING PLANS ACROSS
INTERIOR VA/NC. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE ERN SHORE
THROUGH FRI EVENING. COOLER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID
80S.
THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THRU
SAT AS ~1025MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING
OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE SAT. HIGHS SAT IN THE LOW-MID 80S AS
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH
MID WEEK. MODELS SHOW A LEE TROF DVLPNG TUE WITH THE NEXT FRONT
APPRCHG FROM THE WEST WED. DRY SUN/MON. CHC POPS (20-30%) TUE/WED
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS WRN HALF OF FA.
STILL COMFY THRU SUN. LOWS SAT NITE IN THE U50S-U60S. HIGHS SUN
M-U80S. RETURN FLOW ALLOWS HEAT/HUMIDITY TO RETURN NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
90-95. LOWS U60S-M70S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH HI PRES JUST OFFSHORE AND
A COLD FRNT WELL W OF THE AREA. SSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CU AROUND 5K FT. CHANCE OF RAIN IS TOO LO THIS
AFTN/EVENG (20-30%) TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF RAIN OUT. ANY TSTMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE PSBL THUR MORNG
ESPECIALLY AT KSBY DUE TO HIGH LO-LEVEL MOISTURE DESPITE ~10 KT
WINDS. KEPT IT P6SM ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN COMES
LATE THUR/THUR NGT DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND MOISTURE
FM TS ARTHUR.
PREDOMINANTLY S WINDS ON THUR SHOULD BACK AROUND TO A MORE NLY
DIRECTION THUR NGT INTO FRI. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO OCCUR IN NE NC AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF VA...WHERE GUSTS TO
25-35 KT ARE ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LOW
CIGS...AND POOR VSBYS SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED. OVERALL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE RAPIDLY AS FRI PROGRESSES AND HI PRES BLDS BACK INTO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH MARGINAL...WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINE UP FOR THE CHES BAY
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT AS PRS GRDNT TIGHTENS A BIT. WINDS MAY
DROP BLO SCA LVLS LATE.
FCST THEN FOCUSES ON TRPLCL STORM ARTHUR AS IT CONTS TO MOVE N
ALONG THE SE COAST AND INTO THE NC OUTER BANKS THURS NIGHT. ARTHUR
IS XPCTD TO MERGE WITH THE CD FRNT AND DEEPEN OFF THE MID ATLNTC
COAST FRI EVE...THEN TRACK RAPIDLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
TRPLCL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE S OF THE VA/NC LINE WITH GUSTS
BTWN 40-45 KTS XPCTD THURS NIGHT/FRI MORN. FCST PRBLM IS WHAT TO
DO JUST N OF THAT LINE GIVEN ANY GUSTS TO 35 KTS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT. GIVEN THE CONFIDENCE IN TPC`S TRACK...ELECTED TO
HOIST A GALE WRNG FOR THE CSTL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES TO THE NC
BORDER...EMPHASING THE STRNGSTS GUSTS WILL BE NEAR THE NC BORDER
(THIS BECAUSE GALE HEADLINES ARE BASED OFF GUSTS WHILE ANY TRPLCL
HEADLINES ARE BASED OFF SUSTAINED WNDS).
OTW...CONFIDENCE (IN WIND FCST) NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANY
HEADLINE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. SEAS WILL BUILD ABV 5 FT...BUT NOT UNTIL
FRI ACROSS NRN WATERS SO DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FRTHR
N WITH THIS PACKAGE. SCA OR PSBL GALE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRTHR N ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST FRI. XPCT WAVES TO BUILD TO
4-5 FT AND SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8 FT (10-14 FT POSSIBLE IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS) DURING MOST OF FRIDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING.
GUSTY NW WINDS XPCTD FOR SVRL HRS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTM LATE FRI
WITH IMPROVING CNDTNS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA.
WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR VA BEACH
THURS WITH A LOW THREAT UP THE DELMARVA COAST. FYI...RIP CRNT FCST
DISCONTINED FOR CURRITUCK COUNTY DUE TO TRPLCL HEADLINES.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ015>017-032-102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ098.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ633-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...BMD/MAS
MARINE...MPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1223 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REASONING OUTLINED IN THE MAIN MORNING
DISCUSSION BELOW REMAINS IN PRETTY DECENT SHAPE...AS THE NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN HAS IN FACT BRUSHED INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CWA. IT STILL LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY THAT EVEN
THIS FAR SOUTHWEST AREA WILL BE VOID OF ANY LIGHT RAIN RISK BY
MID-MORNING AS THE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX NOW
ENTERING THE NORTHERN CWA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STARTS TO SLIP
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ABOUT THE ONLY FORECAST ELEMENT THAT
UNDERWENT SOME MODEST TWEAKING FOR THIS UPDATE WAS SKY COVER IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST...AS IT NOW APPEARS THAT ESPECIALLY POLK COUNTY
AND IMMEDIATE VICINITY COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF ENHANCED CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING ALONG THE EXTREME WESTERN FRINGES OF A STRATUS
DECK THAT SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN OVER EASTERN NEB.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST...IT APPEARS THAT BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND
HASTINGS SURVIVED THE NIGHT WITHOUT REACHING RECORD LOWS AS BOTH
SITES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AT 52...ALTHOUGH HASTINGS CAME WITHIN 2
DEGREES OF TYING ITS RECORD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
YOU KNOW ITS A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST WHEN THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS
DECIDING WHETHER OR NOT TO PLACE A SMALL AREA OF SPRINKLES OR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA FOR THIS
MORNING. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS WE
ENJOY ONE MORE DAY/NIGHT OF 10+ DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BEFORE A WARM-UP TO MORE SUMMER LIKE
READINGS BEGINS. ALTHOUGH NOT AS BREEZY AS YESTERDAY WAS...WINDS
TODAY ARE NOT EXACTLY CALM EITHER ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281
BETWEEN THE MID-MORNING AND MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THERE WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
FIRMLY SETTLES IN. FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...BREEZES
WILL BE MORE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY 10
MPH OR LESS. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT AS PLEASANT
AS IT GETS FOR EARLY JULY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
STARTING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AS OF 08Z/3AM...11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BLOTCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EVIDENT JUST OFF THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY WEST...AS A COUPLE
FAIRLY SOLID BANDS OF CLOUDS BASED AROUND 10 THOUSAND FEET ARE
WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST NEB. IN
FACT...A NARROW BUT LEGITIMATE LINE OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY
DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NEB
AREA. THIS LIGHT PRECIP/CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS BEING DRIVEN BY
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION EVIDENT IN MODEL DATA ON THE
310K SURFACE (AROUND 700 MILLIBARS)...WHICH IN TURN IS TAKING
PLACE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A VERY WELL-DEFINED
(ESPECIALLY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) ALBEIT MOISTURE-STARVED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIVING TOWARD CENTRAL NEB OUT OF
SOUTHWEST SD. THIS SHORTWAVE IS ESSENTIALLY THE LAST HURRAH OF
DISTURBANCES ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH/LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE OFF TO THE
WEST...AN AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA RESIDES JUST
DOWNSTREAM FROM A 1022MB RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE NEB/SD/WY
BORDER AREA...WHICH IS PROMOTING LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES
GENERALLY UNDER 8 MPH. ALTHOUGH ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE
PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DECENT COOLING THROUGH SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 2ND AT GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS
SHOULD STAY SAFE BY A FEW DEGREES...STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
MOST FAVORED IN FAR NORTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL COUNTIES.
LOOKING FORWARD AND STARTING WITH THESE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH
SUNRISE...THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY OF THE NARROW
STRIPES OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY WEST OF THE CWA COULD POSSIBLY
CLIP FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS. THE 06Z HRRR SUGGESTS ITS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...AND FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
MAINLY FOR PARTS OF FURNAS/ROOKS COUNTIES.
GETTING INTO THE OFFICIAL DAYTIME FORECAST PERIOD 7AM-7PM...THE
BIG PICTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS INVOLVES THE CONTINUED PASSAGE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS
SLATED TO BE PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AND EVEN
STRENGTHEN A BIT BY 00Z/7PM AS IT DEPARTS INTO THE IA/IL/MO
BORDER AREA. AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY...A FAIRLY PERSISTENT ZONE OF
MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA OVER KS...LIKELY PROMOTING A DECENT COVERAGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY (ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON) ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHWESTERN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE OBVIOUS
QUESTION THEN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER OR NOT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA THIS
MORNING BEFORE THIS PRECIP EITHER FADES OR SHIFTS MORE SAFELY INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS. NO MATTER...FELT IT COULD BE A CLOSE ENOUGH CALL FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO SLIP INTO FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES THAT DECIDED TO INSERT
A TOKEN SPRINKLE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MENTION INTO
PRIMARILY THE ROOKS COUNTY AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...WHILE
LEAVING THE ENTIRE CWA VOID OF PRECIP MENTION BEYOND 18Z/1PM. NO
MATTER WHAT...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS DRY TODAY...AND
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
THOSE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY IF NOT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE SHARP
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MID CLOUD DECK. AT THE SURFACE
TODAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DRIFTING IN FROM
NORTHWEST NEB...PROMOTING THE LIGHTER WIND REGIME TODAY AS
DESCRIBED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH ABOVE. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST SEVERAL MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY...MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS...AIMING FOR MID 70S NORTHEAST TO
UPPER 70S/POSSIBLY 80 SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HANDS DOWN IT WILL THE
COOLEST DAY THE AREA WILL SEE FOR AWHILE.
TURNING TO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
RATHER HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE...ALTHOUGH AM SEEING JUST
ENOUGH OF A ANOTHER MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL FOR THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS IN THE 06Z NAM THAT WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SHOCKED
TO SEE ANOTHER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES TOWARD SUNRISE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF
THE CWA. AT ANY RATE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS
SCENARIO YET TO DISRUPT THE PRECIP-FREE FORECAST JUST YET FOR
SOMETHING OF SUCH LITTLE IMPACT...ESPECIALLY WITH A LACK OF
LARGER-SCALE LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE BIG PICTURE IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY VOID OF ANY SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES...AS MODEST HEIGHT RISES OCCUR UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE EDGING EASTWARD A BIT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE EVENING WILL START
OUT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...BEFORE
SLIDING MORE TOWARD THE MO RIVER BY SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...EVENING
BREEZES WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BEFORE A SOMEWHAT
STEADIER ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE GETS GOING LATE IN
THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST ZONES MAY SEEN INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN EXPERIENCE A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...ESPECIALLY MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE LOW TEMPS END UP
NEAR THOSE OF THIS MORNING. GENERALLY NUDGED DOWN MOST AREAS 1-2
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS...RESULTING IN LOWS FORECAST TO GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 50-53 NORTHEAST AND 53-57 SOUTHWEST. AGAIN
THOUGH...RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE SHOULD BE SAFE IN THE TRI-CITIES
AREA BY ROUGHLY 4 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE WORKING INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 12Z THURSDAY...WITH LONG WAVE RIDGING THEN
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A SERIES OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OVER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI AT 12 THURSDAY. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF TO OUR
EAST...AND TROUGHING ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES...SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF A 35-40KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THIS PRECIPITATION THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
INTO OUR AREA. THIS IS A SOLUTION STILL SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS EC AND SREF-MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FOR A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY...A CONTINUED LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD
PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. HEADING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT OF YET ANOTHER 35-40KT JET
AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA...A SOLUTION ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN. WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30%
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS TRAVELING WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY MEAN
FLOW ADVANCING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...COULD BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20-
30% POPS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THESE POPS
WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMING TREND DURING MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE
LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...AND CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
90S BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ARE ALSO FORECAST DURING
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...BEFORE RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS NEAR 10KTS DEVELOPING AFT 03/15Z.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
648 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE SECOND
OF THESE FRONTS WILL TEMPORARILY STALL OVER EASTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWER TEMPERATURES AND MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTS AS WE END THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WELL DEFINED LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER FROM AN
HOUR AGO HAS SINCE PUSHED EAST AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY FRO THE RADAR TO
LOSE ITS VISUAL IDENTITY...HOWEVER...IT IS STILL QUITE APPARENT ON
VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH SBCAPES >1000 J/KG IN THE FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LK
ONTARIO SUPPORTING STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
ALONG WITH DOWNPOURS WITH A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN (UNDER 45
MINS).
A NEW BOUNDARY HAS CAME ASHORE FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND IS IN THE
PROCESS OF PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS NIAGARA AND ORLEANS COUNTIES. THIS
IS MORE OF AN OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND NOT A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT NEVERTHELESS...COULD PROVE TO
ASSIST UNORGANIZED WEAK CONVECTION THAT IS PUSHING ITS WAY UP THE
LENGTH OF LAKE ERIE. AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM THE PAST 45 MINUTES DO
NOT HOW A LOT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE IAG FRONTIER (<500 J/KG)...
BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY MORE THAN ENOUGH TO RUIN SOMEONES EVENING IF
THEY HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.
ON A LARGER SCALE...A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO/WRN LAKE ERIE
WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED. THIS FEATURE COULD IGNITE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT ILL DEFINED SFC BASED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
FURTHER EAST...SIGNIFICANT DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY TO THE TUNE
OF SBCAPES OF 1500 J/KG WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING FROM UNDER THE RR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT H25 JET. THERE
IS CURRENTLY TSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO FROM THIS
SCENARIO...SO THERE WILL BE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN GOING FORWARD THE
NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS.
FOR THURSDAY...A SLOWING/STALLING COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE
GENESEE VALLEY TO BEGIN THE DAY. INSTABILITY IS NOT AS GREAT AS
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. WHILE THERE LIKELY
WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS FEEL THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL COME MORE FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THAN SEVERE WIND/HAIL.
REASONS FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD WILL BE THE
REGION FALLING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KNOT 250 HPA
JET STREAK EMANATING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS FAVORABLE LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL STORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. THIS MOISTURE FOLLOWING AN 850 HPA THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND
ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE COMBINED LIFT OF THE
JET STREAK/LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR DRENCHING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH A SSW-NNW
PROGRESSION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRAINING STORMS COULD BRING
LOCALLY POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. FOR NOW WILL MENTION THE HEAVY
RAINFALL MAKERS IN THE HWO PRODUCT...AS CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN AT THIS POINT REMAINS QUITE LOW.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE ACROSS THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS THAN LAST NIGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW UNDER COOLING 850 HPA
ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER WILL RANGE ACROSS THE 70S FOR OUR
AREA...WARMEST ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT/WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK WILL FINALLY GET SHUNTED EASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND BY A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND NORTH COUNTRY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...WHILE ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS. EVEN WITH THE PRECIP COMING
TO AN END THOUGH...DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN FARLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY
REACHES PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATE. TEMPERATURE-WISE...
A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BURGEONING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINES...WITH ITS EFFECTS REMAINING WELL EAST OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANY LINGERING EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE THESE MAY WIND UP BEING
REPLACED BY A DECENT AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CU. WITH THE INCREASING
SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN +8C AND +9C...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST PLACES...
THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIGHT NOT
MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER 60S. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY COMFORTABLE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
THEN MAKING FOR EQUALLY COMFORTABLE SLEEPING CONDITIONS ONCE THE
HOLIDAY CELEBRATIONS CONCLUDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT...THE FINE WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ALSO PERSISTING. IN TERMS OF ACTUAL TEMPS...
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY...
WITH SATURDAY NIGHT/S LOWS THEN RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SUNDAY WILL FEATURE ONE
MORE DAY OF FINE EARLY SUMMER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS OUT TO SEA...THOUGH
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR LEAST SOME
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER TIME. TEMPERATURE-WISE...A
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETTING UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RECOVER BACK TO THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREADING OUR REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...THOUGH THE
VARIOUS OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE PACKAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE
VARIANCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE
ELECTED TO LEAN TOWARD OUR CONTINUITY/WPC/THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR
THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...ALL OF WHICH SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER. AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST BY BROAD BRUSH LOWER-END
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RETURN
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
NAVIGATE AROUND THIS EVENING. ONE AREA WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH A SECOND AREA
SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST IN SOME FORM
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM GENERATION POSSIBLE
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BETWEEN SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES.
ON THURSDAY...SFC WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT...THOUGH LIKELY REMAINING SOUTHWEST ACROSS KART WHICH
WILL LIE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH 18Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY
EASTWARD. HOWEVER VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN AND ALLOW
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW...AND THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DO
NOT EXPECT STEADY WINDS AND WAVES TO MEET SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
THURSDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE FINE BOATING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030-042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
554 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE SECOND
OF THESE FRONTS WILL TEMPORARILY STALL OVER EASTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWER TEMPERATURES AND MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTS AS WE END THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WELL DEFINED LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WAS ILLUMINATED BY THE KBUF
RADAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NEAR KJHW TO
SOUTHERN WYOMING COUNTY WHERE ONE CAN EXTRAPOLATE IT TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL LIVINGSTON COUNTY. UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHEN
THE BOUNDARY WAS A HUNDRED MILES FURTHER EAST AND THE AIR IN ITS
WAKE WAS RELATIVELY STABLE...THE AIRMASS OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES AT 21Z WAS PRIMED WITH SBCAPES >1000 J/KG AND LI`S IN
THE VCNTY OF -4.
THIS AIRMASS WAS SUPPORTING A STRONG STORM ALONG THE
CATTARAUGUS/WYOMING COUNTY BORDER AT 2140Z...WITH SUGGESTIONS OF AN
ELEVATED CORE AND PLENTY OF SMALL HAIL ABV 10K FT. THIS CELL ALONG
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL DESERVE CLOSE ATTENTION. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EST OF THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH 23Z.
AFTER THAT TIME...A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO/WRN LAKE ERIE
WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED. THIS FEATURE COULD IGNITE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT ILL DEFINED SFC BASED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
FURTHER EAST...SIGNIFICANT DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY TO THE TUNE
OF SBCAPES OF 1500 J/KG WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING FROM UNDER THE RR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT H25 JET. THERE
IS CURRENTLY TSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO FROM THIS
SCENARIO...SO THERE WILL BE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN GOING FORWARD THE
NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS.
FOR THURSDAY...A SLOWING/STALLING COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE
GENESEE VALLEY TO BEGIN THE DAY. INSTABILITY IS NOT AS GREAT AS
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. WHILE THERE LIKELY
WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS FEEL THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL COME MORE FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THAN SEVERE WIND/HAIL.
REASONS FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD WILL BE THE
REGION FALLING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KNOT 250 HPA
JET STREAK EMANATING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS FAVORABLE LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL STORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. THIS MOISTURE FOLLOWING AN 850 HPA THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND
ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE COMBINED LIFT OF THE
JET STREAK/LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR DRENCHING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH A SSW-NNW
PROGRESSION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRAINING STORMS COULD BRING
LOCALLY POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. FOR NOW WILL MENTION THE HEAVY
RAINFALL MAKERS IN THE HWO PRODUCT...AS CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN AT THIS POINT REMAINS QUITE LOW.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE ACROSS THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS THAN LAST NIGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW UNDER COOLING 850 HPA
ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER WILL RANGE ACROSS THE 70S FOR OUR
AREA...WARMEST ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT/WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK WILL FINALLY GET SHUNTED EASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND BY A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND NORTH COUNTRY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...WHILE ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS. EVEN WITH THE PRECIP COMING
TO AN END THOUGH...DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN FARLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY
REACHES PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATE. TEMPERATURE-WISE...
A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BURGEONING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINES...WITH ITS EFFECTS REMAINING WELL EAST OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANY LINGERING EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE THESE MAY WIND UP BEING
REPLACED BY A DECENT AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CU. WITH THE INCREASING
SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN +8C AND +9C...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST PLACES...
THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIGHT NOT
MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER 60S. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY COMFORTABLE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
THEN MAKING FOR EQUALLY COMFORTABLE SLEEPING CONDITIONS ONCE THE
HOLIDAY CELEBRATIONS CONCLUDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT...THE FINE WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ALSO PERSISTING. IN TERMS OF ACTUAL TEMPS...
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY...
WITH SATURDAY NIGHT/S LOWS THEN RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SUNDAY WILL FEATURE ONE
MORE DAY OF FINE EARLY SUMMER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS OUT TO SEA...THOUGH
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR LEAST SOME
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER TIME. TEMPERATURE-WISE...A
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETTING UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RECOVER BACK TO THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREADING OUR REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...THOUGH THE
VARIOUS OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE PACKAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE
VARIANCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE
ELECTED TO LEAN TOWARD OUR CONTINUITY/WPC/THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR
THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...ALL OF WHICH SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER. AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST BY BROAD BRUSH LOWER-END
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RETURN
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
NAVIGATE AROUND THIS EVENING. ONE AREA WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH A SECOND AREA
SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST IN SOME FORM
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM GENERATION POSSIBLE
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BETWEEN SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES.
ON THURSDAY...SFC WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT...THOUGH LIKELY REMAINING SOUTHWEST ACROSS KART WHICH
WILL LIE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH 18Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY
EASTWARD. HOWEVER VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN AND ALLOW
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW...AND THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DO
NOT EXPECT STEADY WINDS AND WAVES TO MEET SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
THURSDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE FINE BOATING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030-042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
348 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS TONIGHT
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES BY
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH #384 CONTS FOR
NORTHERN NY INTO ALL OF VT THRU 2300 UTC THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
DIFFICULT DAY FOR PREDICTING CONVECTION WITH NO SVR YET ACRS OUR
CWA. HAVE NOTICED OUR SFC DWPTS HERE AT BTV HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
L60S...WHILE THE TEMPS HAS JUMPED TO 90F...MAYBE ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXING TO THE SFC. THINKING OVERALL THREAT
FOR SVR IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING ACRS OUR CWA...GIVEN ACTIVITY TO
OUR SOUTH.
LAPS SFC BASED CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS GREATEST INSTABILITY ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CPV...WITH
VALUES BTWN 1800 AND 2400 J/KG...BUT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE
ADVECTING AHEAD OF COMPLEX OF STORMS IN EASTERN NY. THIS IS HELPING
TO STABILIZE OUR CWA. THINKING OVERALL SVR WX THREAT WL BE
DIMINISHING ACRS OUR CWA...OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HRS...BUT WE WL HOLD
ONTO WATCH FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS. STILL NOTICING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT AFT 00Z ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT VORT AND
LEFTOVER INSTABILITY. LATEST 18Z HRRR IS SHOWING ENHANCED
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY DEVELOPING ACRS THE DACKS AND MOVING THRU
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z TONIGHT...WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY DECREASES AFT MIDNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF HZ/BR POSSIBLE TWD MORNING WITH CONTINUED MUGGY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WL CONTINUE
ACRS OUR CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH WATER VAPOR SHOWING NEXT POTENT
VORT DIVING ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THIS VORT WL TRACK FROM
THE MS VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WESTERN NY/PA BY 18Z THURS AND ACRS
NORTHERN NY ON THURS EVENING. THIS VORT COMBINED WITH RRQ OF 120
KNOT AND PLENTY OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE...WL PRODUCE A OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. GIVEN THE STRONG ULVL
DIVERGENCE...GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER STORMS WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES
CAN DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...PWS REMAIN BTWN 1.50 AND 1.75 OVER OUR
CWA...WITH NOSE OF 85H JET OF 25 TO 35 KNTS IMPACTING OUR EASTERN
CWA AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WL RANGE BTWN 0.50 WESTERN CWA
TO 1.50 IN THE HIGHER TRRN ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT BY 12Z FRIDAY.
BOTTOM LINE EXPECT A WET EVENING FOR CELEBRATION IN BTV ON THURS
NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF EMBEDDED STORMS.
LATEST GFS/NAM SFC BASED CAPE PROGS SHOW VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG ACRS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
STRONGER STORMS...BUT PROBABLY NOT SVR. HAVE NOTED SPC DAY 2 HAS
SLIGHT RISK ACRS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHERE THE COMBINATION
OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND INCREASED WINDS
ALOFT WL KEEP TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE BENCHMARK. GIVEN THE CRNT TRACK EXPECTED BY NHC...ARTHUR WL HAVE
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA...MAYBE A SPOT SHOWER ON FRIDAY
ACRS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZNS. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLW AROUND BUILDING
SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WL FINALLY PUSH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. HAVE NOTICED 1000 TO 500MB
THICKNESS VALUES DROPPING BTWN 556 TO 560...SUGGESTING MUCH COOL AIR
ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE L70S MTNS TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLR SKIES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRES AND
TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETING BOTTOMING OUT
AND AREAS OF FOG FROM DEVELOPING. WL STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ATTM
AND NOT MENTION ANY FOG YET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FULL DISCLOSURE -- DUE TO THE
ONGOING SHORT TERM SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, I DID NOT SPEND A GREAT
DEAL OF TIME ON THE EXTENDED. USED AN ENSEMBLE OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE TO PLUG INTO THE DATABASE. DID QUICKLY EXAMINE THE 12Z
GFS & ECMWF, AND IT STILL LOOKED PRETTY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS
AND WHAT WE`VE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST. SO NET RESULT IS NO BIG
CHANGES. THE HIGHLIGHTS:
SATURDAY & SUNDAY: YET ANOTHER DRY WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
CASE. NOT SURE WHAT THAT STREAK IS, BUT I FOR ONE AM PLEASED WITH
IT. GFS IS STILL SHOWING SOME PRECIP NORTH OF THE BORDER ON SUNDAY
AND IS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH THAN THE 12Z EURO, SO I DID LEAN
TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION.
MONDAY & TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY...DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW GETS
ESTABLISHED AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW MEANS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS. MODELS
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS/SHORTWAVES/DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IN
THAT FLOW. EACH OF THESE SHOULD COMBINE WITH GENERAL DAYTIME
HEATING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. QUICK GLANCE DIDN`T SEEM LIKE ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE. GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE PATTERN, JUST STUCK WITH
THE GENERAL 30-40% CHANCE EACH DAY THAT GUIDANCE GAVE ME.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF TRICKY FORECASTS FOR THE
AREA AIRPORTS. IT`S ALL ABOUT WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND
WHERE DO THEY GO.
AT THIS POINT, THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DOWN IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THIS
RATE THEY SHOULD CLIP RUTLAND (RUT) ABOUT 20Z. HAVE THUS INCLUDED
A TEMPO FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE 20-23Z TIME FRAME.
ELSEWHERE THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE, THOUGH HAVE INCREASING FEELING THAT THEY
WILL REMAIN ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED VCTS FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS, THOUGH JUST A VCSH FOR OUT
IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR MASSENA (MSS) WHERE THE TREAT OF
T-STORMS IS THE LOWEST.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE WITH AROUND 00Z. COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER
OVERNIGHT, BUT AT THIS POINT THE CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS. HAVE PUT IN SOME MENTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
CEILINGS AND FOG IN OUR NORMALLY FOG PRONE SITES OF SLK AND MPV.
THIS IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDANT ON WHETHER OR NOT WE GET RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY, IT STARTS OUT VFR, THOUGH WE WILL AGAIN SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP CLOSER TO 18Z.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z MONDAY...VFR.
12Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE DISCONTINUED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
AS IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL ONLY TOP OUT ABOUT 20 KNOTS TODAY.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WE HAVE
HOISTED A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY. WE WILL EVALUATE WEATHER
TRENDS, AND DISCONTINUE THE ADVISORY WHEN THE THREAT DIMINISHES.
IF WE DO GET ANY THUNDERSTORMS, THEY WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN,
GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS AND OF COURSE DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
MARINE...NASH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1252 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK
WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE
MORNING CLOUD COVER FOR THOSE AREAS. ALSO...THE PATCHY FOG HAS
LIFTED. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING PATCHY FOG WORDING.
THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
A COOL START TO THE MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG OUT THERE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. KEPT A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG THROUGH 13 UTC. AREA OF VFR CLOUDS OVER THE WEST AND
ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTH FROM MANITOBA. THIS HAS BEEN HANDLED WELL
BY THE HRRR AND WAS ADDED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERALL A
LITTLE COOL FOR EARLY JULY BUT LESS WIND TODAY AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER SKY COVER/GRIDS
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA
WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. UPSTREAM...OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA...THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP IS SHOWING AN EXPANDING AREA
OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS BASED AT 5000FT-6000FT. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
THE 850MB-750MB LAYER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA APPEARS TO BE
THE MAIN DRIVER FOR VERTICAL MOTION AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE
NAM/GFS RH TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AS WELL AS THE HRRR CLOUD
BASE HEIGHT/CEILING FORECAST...ALL PAINT A SCT/BKN 5KFT STRATIFORM
CLOUD DECK FOR MOST OF THE WEST THIS MORNING. THIS TRANSITIONS TO
A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SIMILAR AREA
DEVELOPS OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY MID MORNING...THEN EXPANDS
SOUTHEAST JUST GRAZING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE HIGHEST
CLOUD COVERAGE...AND THUS A MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
HERE. PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WEST WILL BE THE GOING FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM CROSBY THIS MORNING INTO
JAMESTOWN BY 00Z THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE BE IN THE
70S TODAY. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT SCT CLOUDS WITH WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD THURSDAY WITH A MODERATE AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER CANADA
BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING OVER
THE TOP OF THE NOW FLATTENED RIDGE WHICH IS SITUATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THUS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 00 UTC WED 2 JULY GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATE A SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MUCAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA BY 00 UTC SATURDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK CAP HANGING ON BETWEEN 850
AND 700 MB AT KBIS AND KJMS FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
LIMITED CAPPING FROM KDIK AND KISN UP THROUGH KMOT. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON THE 4TH
GIVEN THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TEMPER SLIGHTLY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE OUR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT
WITH ANY STORM...BUT A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST
WEEKEND CREATED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORAGE AT BOTH ALAMEDA
DAM AND LAKE DARLING. RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM WILL INCREASE OVER
THE COMING DAYS...THUS INCREASING THE RELEASES DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE
DARLING. THIS...COMBINED WITH LOCAL RUNOFF...WILL CAUSE THE SOURIS
RIVER TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM
HYDROLOGY...KS/JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
625 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE INTERACTION OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ARTHUR
WILL SUPPORT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...WITH
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE
STATE. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL NOT BE IMPACTED BY ARTHUR
AS IT TRACKS FAR ENOUGH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE
ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BRING A VERY
COMFORTABLE AND DRY 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THREAT WANING ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AS MOST OF THE AREA HAS BEEN WORKED OVER BY EARLIER
CONVECTION. HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF WATCH 384. HOWEVER...A FEW
STRONG CELLS REMAIN OVR LANCASTER CO AT 22Z...SO WILL LET IT RIDE
THRU 7 PM DOWN THERE.
ALTHOUGH BLYR COOLING WILL LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL SVR WX
THREAT...CAN/T RULE OUT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL IN SCT TSRA THAT MAY
PERSIST THRU THE EVENING OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THIS REGION
WILL REMAIN WITHIN A PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS...WHERE RAP WARM
CLOUD DEPTH IS NEAR 4KM. EARLY EVENING VISIBLE IMAGERY IMPLIES A
MUCH MORE STABLE AIR MASS NORTH AND WEST OF HARRISBURG...WHERE
JUST A FEW FLAT CU NOTED AT 22Z. FOR THIS PORTION OF CENTRAL
PA...A DRY NIGHT APPEARS IN STORE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
WARREN CO. STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY LIES ALONG THE LK ERIE SHORE AND
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM NW OHIO...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SCT CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF THIS BNDRY TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MUGGY WITH PATCHY FOG. FOCUS
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO INTERACTION OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARTHUR...AND POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING MOD-HVY RAIN/PRE TYPE EVENT
INTO THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS QPF FAVORS THE SERN ZONES WITH
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOWER DEWPOINTS EXPECTED ON THU...BUT DYNAMICS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. WHILE THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS MAY TRACK WEST OF THE
CWA INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR LIKELY POPS
ON THU. MOST LIKELY TOO FAR NW FOR A PRE TYPE EVENT BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...BUT LEFT SOME
SHOWERS IN ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE AMOUNT OF CLDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SAT...GETTING CONCERN ABOUT HOW MUCH COOL AIR IS ADVECTED SE
ACROSS THE LAKES.
EXPECT A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY.
WENT WITH LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH ON MONDAY...THEN ALL
AREAS FOR TUE INTO WED...AS EC AND OTHER MODELS HINT AT A
WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LCL TSTM IMPACTS WITH SUB-MVFR VISBY RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE AFTN/EVE. TSTM CVRG SHOULD DECREASE AFT 00Z GIVEN LOSS OF
SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE IS IN FAVOR OF IFR OR LOWER
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/ST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURS...BUT HAVE
TRENDED TAFS MORE OPTIMISTICALLY /MAINLY MVFR VISBYS/ FOR NOW
GIVEN PERSISTENCE AND LOW CONFIDENCE. LATER ISSUANCE MAY NEED TO
ADJUST IF FOG/ST BECOME MORE PREVALENT. HUMID AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH THU. POTENTIAL REDUCTIONS IN FOG/HAZE EARLY SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO VFR...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS
PSBL DURING THE AFTN.
LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDS THU NIGHT WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR FLYING
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUBL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
421 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE PASSING TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP A WEAK COLD FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2030 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN FEW CLOUDS. POP WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY...
WITH LESS COVERAGE EVERYWHERE BUR THE NORTHERN CLOUD RIDGE...WHERE
RADAR SHOWED CONVECTION DEVELOPING.
AS OF 215 PM...IN THE VERY NEAR TERM NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONSENSUS
AMONG THE MODELS IN REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE NCEP CAMS PLUS THE
NAM/RAP ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHILE
OUR LOCAL WRFS AND HRRR ONLY HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT BEST. WITH SBCAPES EXCEEDING 3000J/KG AND LITTLE CIN
NOTED...WILL LEAN TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE SOLUTIONS. SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PIEDMONT. WITH
DCAPES >1000J...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO PLAY OUT
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT BOTH THE GFS/NAM ENHANCE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
LEE TROUGH. THE MODELS SHOW SOME QPF RESPONSE SO WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE TYPE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
ON THU...AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVES OFF THE SC COAST...IT WILL
AS EXPECTED CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH AS WELL.
HENCE..WE EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
EASTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH
THE ARRIVAL THE FRONT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS TO PRODUCE MOST GRID
FIELDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WED...UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA FRI
PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SAT. AT THE
SFC...MILD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WX SYSTEMS FRI...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SLIDING TO NEAR THE VA/NC COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY SAT. EXPECT
DRY BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS FRI...WITH BREEZES POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
FRI NITE...AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FRONT AND APPROACHING HIGH. THERE
COULD EVEN BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRI AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. ANY LINGERING BREEZES WILL DIMINISH
SAT MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SFC HIGH. CANNOT RULE OUT MORNING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN...BUT DRY
FCST WILL CONTINUE. LOWS THU NITE AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. LOWS FRI NITE AND HIGHS SAT WILL DROP TO AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM WED...ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT LINGERS
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE SFC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WEAK FLOW
OUT OF THE SOUTH BOTH DAYS...POSSIBLE SUPPORTING MIN RH IN THE MID
40S. A BLEND OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90
EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION AROUND
H65. THE INVERSION SHOULD PROVIDE A CAP EAST OF THE MTNS...WEAKEST
OVER THE RIDGES. I WILL INDICATE SCHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES DURING
THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROF WILL RIPPLE
ACROSS THE MID WEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO MID LEVEL S/W MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTH
APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...LITTLE TO NO AFTERNOON CIN...AND SLIGHT GREATER WEST
STEERING FLOW MAY SUPPORT HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES...WITH MID
AFTERNOON CHC EAST. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE
TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS THE TIMING AND DURATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THE AIRFIELD. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH SUPPORTS STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT..
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE ONLY TRIGGER WILL BE FROM AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM UPSTREAM STORMS OVER THE FOOTHILLS. 12Z NAM AND LATEST
RAP DEVELOP CONVECTION CIRCA 00Z AT CLT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND
WILL HAVE A TEMPO TSRA FROM 23-03Z. SOME -SHRA COULD REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE STORMS. WILL ALSO BRING MVFR
CIGS OVER AIRFIELD TOWARD SUNRISE AS SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE
EASTERLY.
ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE
NC FOOTHILLS...BUT DEVELOP SE INTO UPSTATE SC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVNEING. HENCE WILL HAVE TEMPO FOR TSRA AT ALL AIRFIELDS EXCEPT
FOR KAND WHERE ONLY VCTS WILL BE CARRIED. STORMS SHOULD END THIS
EVENING BUT SCATTERED SHRA MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING. SOME
LIGHT FOG REDUCING VSBY`S TO 4-5SM IS EXPECTED AROUND SR ALONG WITH
SOME MVFR CIGS AT KHKY.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN THU AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS DRY HIGH
PRESSRUE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
HURRICANE ARTHUR. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL RETURN THE FRIST
OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MEANS SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 91% MED 78% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 87% MED 65%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 80%
KHKY HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 81% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 80%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
223 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE PASSING TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP A WEAK COLD FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM...IN THE VERY NEAR TERM NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONSENSUS
AMONG THE MODELS IN REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE NCEP CAMS PLUS THE
NAM/RAP ARE THE MOST AGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHILE
OUR LOCAL WRFS AND HRRR ONLY HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT BEST. WITH SBCAPES EXCEEDING 3000J/KG AND LITTLE CIN
NOTED...WILL LEAN TO THE MORE AGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE SOLUTIONS. SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO NUMOUERS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PIEDMONT. WITH
DCAPES >1000J...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO PLAY OUT
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT BOTH THE GFS/NAM ENHANCE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
LEE TROUGH. THE MODELS SHOW SOME QPF RESPONSE SO WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE TYPE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
ON THU...AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVES OFF THE SC COAST...IT WILL
AS EXPECTED CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH AS WELL.
HENCE..WE EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
EASTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH
THE ARRIVAL THE FRONT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS TO PRODUCE MOST GRID
FIELDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WED...UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA FRI
PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SAT. AT THE
SFC...MILD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WX SYSTEMS FRI...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SLIDING TO NEAR THE VA/NC COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY SAT. EXPECT
DRY BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS FRI...WITH BREEZES POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
FRI NITE...AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FRONT AND APPROACHING HIGH. THERE
COULD EVEN BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRI AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. ANY LINGERING BREEZES WILL DIMINISH
SAT MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SFC HIGH. CANNOT RULE OUT MORNING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN...BUT DRY
FCST WILL CONTINUE. LOWS THU NITE AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. LOWS FRI NITE AND HIGHS SAT WILL DROP TO AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM WED...ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT LINGERS
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE SFC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WEAK FLOW
OUT OF THE SOUTH BOTH DAYS...POSSIBLE SUPPORTING MIN RH IN THE MID
40S. A BLEND OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90
EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION AROUND
H65. THE INVERSION SHOULD PROVIDE A CAP EAST OF THE MTNS...WEAKEST
OVER THE RIDGES. I WILL INDICATE SCHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES DURING
THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROF WILL RIPPLE
ACROSS THE MID WEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO MID LEVEL S/W MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTH
APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...LITTLE TO NO AFTERNOON CIN...AND SLIGHT GREATER WEST
STEERING FLOW MAY SUPPORT HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES...WITH MID
AFTERNOON CHC EAST. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE
TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS THE TIMING AND DURATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THE AIRFIELD. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH SUPPORTS STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT..
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE ONLY TRIGGER WILL BE FROM AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM UPSTREAM STORMS OVER THE FOOTHILLS. 12Z NAM AND LATEST
RAP DEVELOP CONVECTION CIRCA 00Z AT CLT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND
WILL HAVE A TEMPO TSRA FROM 23-03Z. SOME -SHRA COULD REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE STORMS. WILL ALSO BRING MVFR
CIGS OVER AIRFIELD TOWARD SUNRISE AS SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE
EASTERLY.
ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE
NC FOOTHILLS...BUT DEVELOP SE INTO UPSTATE SC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVNEING. HENCE WILL HAVE TEMPO FOR TSRA AT ALL AIRFIELDS EXCEPT
FOR KAND WHERE ONLY VCTS WILL BE CARRIED. STORMS SHOULD END THIS
EVENING BUT SCATTERED SHRA MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING. SOME
LIGHT FOG REDUCING VSBY`S TO 4-5SM IS EXPECTED AROUND SR ALONG WITH
SOME MVFR CIGS AT KHKY.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN THU AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS DRY HIGH
PRESSRUE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
HURRICANE ARTHUR. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL RETURN THE FRIST
OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MEANS SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 91% HIGH 86%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 91% MED 73%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 93% HIGH 80%
KHKY HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 96% HIGH 84%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 88%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
324 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME HEAVY RAIN AND LOCAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS. THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS
BEGIN DRIFTING WEST OUT OF THE BORDERLAND FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL PERSIST TO CONTINUE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWING RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE
OVER THE CWA. BLENDED TPW SHOWS PW`S RANGING FROM .9" FAR NW TO 1.2"
SE. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN SHOWING
GRANT/SIERRA COUNTIES AS A HOT SPOT FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND
COMBINED WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY THERE YESTERDAY...INCREASED POPS IN
THAT AREA. HRRR EARLY RUNS THIS MORNING WERE ALSO SHOWING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF EL PASO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES...LIKELY FUELED
BY OUTFLOW COMING OFF THE SACS...BUT LATEST RUN LOOKS TO BE BACKING
OFF THAT THEME. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A CLOSE REPEAT OF TODAY AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES. MAIN IMPACTS OF STORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
APPEAR TO BE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING DUE TO SEASONALLY HIGH PW`S AND
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 45-55 MPH ALSO POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PATTERN OF REDUCED CONVECTION LOOKS TO
CONTINUE WITH THIS MORNING`S MODEL RUNS. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
SLOWLY DRIFTS WEST OF OUT THE AREA AS NORTHEAST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
THOUGH MODELS NOT SHOWING STRONG DRY CONTINENTAL
ADVECTION...MOISTURE DOES DECREASE. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PW`S
DECREASE TO ABOUT .7-.9" WHILE DEWPOINTS FALL FROM THE 45-55 DEG
RANGE TO 35-45 DEG. STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ISOLATED POP
CHANCES IN FOR EACH DAY...THOUGH MOUNTAINS AS USUAL WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AGAIN FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM BUT LATEST RUNS NOT REALLY
SHOWING THIS. KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN ALL AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 030000Z - 040000Z
MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO TONIGHT. SKY: FEW-SCT040-080 SCT-BKN 100-140 AND BKN200-250.
EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA UNTIL AROUND 06Z...THEN ISOLD SHRA. CIGS
SCT-BKN040-080 BKN-OVC100-140 IN AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA WITH VSBY AT
TIMES BELOW 1SM IN HEAVIER RAIN. WINDS GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AT 10-15KTS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT...DIMINISHING TO 5-10
KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. ANY STORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AND WARMER AIR
OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
GILA REGION AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE LOWLANDS THURSDAY
AND IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE OVER AREA MOUNTAINS. HAINES
INDICES GENERALLY LOW (3) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 75 94 76 95 74 / 30 20 30 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 72 92 73 93 69 / 20 20 20 0 10
LAS CRUCES 69 93 70 94 69 / 30 20 30 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 70 93 71 92 70 / 30 20 30 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 48 66 47 68 46 / 40 30 40 20 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 93 69 91 68 / 60 20 30 20 20
SILVER CITY 60 85 60 87 62 / 60 30 40 20 20
DEMING 69 93 70 92 69 / 40 30 30 10 10
LORDSBURG 68 92 69 92 68 / 60 40 40 20 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 94 75 94 73 / 30 20 30 0 10
DELL CITY 66 93 67 93 65 / 20 10 10 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 73 96 76 97 71 / 30 20 20 0 10
LOMA LINDA 68 87 69 90 67 / 30 20 30 0 10
FABENS 72 95 73 96 71 / 30 20 20 0 10
SANTA TERESA 71 93 71 95 70 / 30 20 30 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 94 72 95 71 / 40 20 30 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 65 94 66 94 65 / 40 20 30 0 10
HATCH 67 96 68 94 67 / 50 20 30 0 10
COLUMBUS 72 93 74 89 72 / 40 30 30 10 10
OROGRANDE 69 93 70 94 69 / 30 20 30 0 10
MAYHILL 57 78 57 78 56 / 40 30 40 20 20
MESCALERO 54 77 54 78 53 / 40 30 40 20 20
TIMBERON 53 74 53 76 52 / 40 30 40 20 20
WINSTON 63 85 60 86 61 / 60 40 50 20 30
HILLSBORO 69 91 70 93 68 / 60 30 30 10 20
SPACEPORT 68 93 69 92 68 / 60 20 30 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 58 85 59 87 56 / 60 40 50 30 20
HURLEY 62 88 63 87 61 / 60 40 40 20 20
CLIFF 54 89 52 88 52 / 60 40 40 20 20
MULE CREEK 53 86 50 88 49 / 60 40 40 20 20
FAYWOOD 66 89 67 94 65 / 60 30 30 20 20
ANIMAS 71 93 71 92 71 / 40 40 40 20 20
HACHITA 67 93 68 93 67 / 40 30 30 20 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 70 92 71 89 70 / 40 30 30 20 20
CLOVERDALE 64 86 65 87 63 / 50 40 40 20 20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
HEFNER/PARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
301 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 50 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. WILL ALSO
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. LOOKING AT THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. WHILE
THIS IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED WITH THE SHORT
NIGHTS...THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME WEAK FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 3 KFT. THE
GFS SHOWS WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH THIS LAYER AND DOES NOT
SATURATE AT THE SURFACE. THE SREF MEAN FORECAST SOUNDINGS COME
VERY CLOSE TO SATURATING. ANY PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS LATE
TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE ONSET
OF SURFACE HEATING. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A PRETTY QUIET DAY ACROSS
THE REGION. KEEPING AN EYE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH BASED FLAT CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. AGAIN WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL. THE HIGH THEN STARTS TO SLIDE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THE WEATHER IS LOOKING RATHER PLEASANT FOR THE FOURTH OF
JULY WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO WE SHOULD SEE GOOD WEATHER
FOR THE FIRE WORKS DISPLAYS FRIDAY EVENING. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE ECWMF/CANADIAN/NAM80 ARE ALL SPLITTING PRECIPITATION AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/LAKE SUPERIOR AND ANOTHER WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA. THE GFS IS THE ONLY GUIDANCE THATS
GENERATING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY. A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WHILE THE SHEAR ISN/T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...WE ARE STILL
LOOKING AT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 45 KTS ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. IN ADDITION...WARM CLOUD DEPTH CLIMBS INTO
THE 3.5 TO 4.0 KM RANGE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE. THE STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS AND MAY ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LARGE
HAIL AND MAYBE DAMAGING WINDS. SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT FOR LATE
IN THE WEEKEND BUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING IS LOOKING
LIKE THE MOST IMPACTFUL PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON. ALSO...SUNDAY
WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEK
WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
VISIBLE SATELLITE LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE CLOUD DECK OVER THE
AREA CONTINUES TO WORK STEADILY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR FOR THE MOST PART BUT ARE STARTING TO INCREASE TO VFR. BASED
ON TIMING AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE 02.15Z RAP AND 02.12Z
NAM...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO START MOVING PAST KRST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT HANG ON AT KLSE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. THE NAM SUGGESTS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT KLSE
AS IT SATURATES THE SURFACE. THE RAP ONLY GOES OUT TO ABOUT
03.08Z RIGHT NOW BUT SHOWS A LARGE SURFACE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD
AND THE 02.06Z GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SATURATE OVERNIGHT. THE
02.09Z SREF MEAN SOUNDING ALSO DOES NOT SATURATE BUT DOES COME
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF DOING SO. THE NAM CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE
TOO MOIST WITH THE LOW LEVELS SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
NOT MUCH THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LA CROSSE NORTH
TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. MEANWHILE THE FLOOD CREST ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH OF
LA CROSSE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.
AUSTIN MN - 43 IN 1940
CHARLES CITY IA - 45 IN 1967
DECORAH IA - 41 IN 1924
LA CROSSE WI - 49 IN 1968
MEDFORD WI - 37 IN 1927
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI - 45 IN 1968
RICHLAND CENTER WI - 43 IN 1995
ROCHESTER MN - 44 IN 1917
SPARTA WI - 40 IN 1968
WINONA MN - 49 IN 1995
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
CLIMATE...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1207 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM GREEN BAY TO SIOUX FALLS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS FRONT WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE
RUNNING AROUND 4C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2 TO 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF. CURRENTLY
ABUNDANT CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION IS HELPING TO KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY COULD BE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. STRONG
OMEGA BELOW 850 MB IS HELPING GENERATING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TODAY...THE 02.00Z MODELS ARE GOOD IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOUT 1 TO 2C. HOWEVER
THIS IS STILL 1.5 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN BOTH
THE NAM AND ECMWF. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 900 TO 800 MB RANGE AND ML CAPES OF
LESS THAN 100 J/KG. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG
LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE TODAY. THE LATEST RAP HAS THE BEST LAYER
STRETCHING POTENTIAL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SO THINKING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR
FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE THERE. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND COLD AIR ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...
THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
REACHED OR EXCEEDED. MORE ON THIS WILL BE COVERED IN THE
CLIMATOLOGY SECTION OF THIS PRODUCT.
FOR TONIGHT...850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 1 TO 2 DEGREES.
THIS STILL RESULTS 850 TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET AND KEEPING THE
WINDS WELL MIXED ABOVE THE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER...THERE WILL BE NO SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER AND SHORT NIGHT MAY HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT RECORD LOWS FROM
OCCURRING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
ON THURSDAY...WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE VERY STEEP 900 TO 750 MB
LAPSE RATES. USUALLY THIS WOULD BE A CONCERN FOR STRONGER WIND
GUSTS...BUT IN THE CASE THE WINDS ALOFT ARE RATHER LIGHT BELOW
700 MB...SO ONLY EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH
RANGE. THE MAIN THING THAT THE MIXING WILL DO IS BRING DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. SINCE MOS TYPICALLY DOES NOT DO WELL IN
THESE SITUATIONS USED THE MIX DOWN TOOL TO LOWER THE DEW POINTS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 40S WHICH IS VERY DRY FOR EARLY JULY.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP LAYER /UP TO 700 MB/ OF
LIGHT WINDS. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS. BOTH CLIMATOLOGY AND MOS DEW POINT SPREADS WOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRENCE IN THE WISCONSIN AND
KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE 925 MB AND
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THUS KEPT THE EVENING DRY. WITH ARTHUR MOVING UP THE
COAST AT THIS TIME...THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE RIDGING TO THE
WEST OF THIS SYSTEM MAY SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS THE REASON WHY BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
TIMING OF THESE WAVES ARE PROBLEMATIC AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...THERE CONTINUE TO BE AN INDICATION IN THE
MODELS THAT THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 12C FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT DOES FORM TO BE ELEVATED...THUS...WE ARE NOT ABLE TO TAP INTO
THE BETTER 0-3 KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL DESPITE THE LACK OF
SUPERCELL SHEAR. AS WE MOVE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BOTH
THE WARM CLOUD LAYER AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO FOCUS IT INTO A PARTICULAR AREA WHICH
WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
VISIBLE SATELLITE LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE CLOUD DECK OVER THE
AREA CONTINUES TO WORK STEADILY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR FOR THE MOST PART BUT ARE STARTING TO INCREASE TO VFR. BASED
ON TIMING AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE 02.15Z RAP AND 02.12Z
NAM...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO START MOVING PAST KRST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT HANG ON AT KLSE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. THE NAM SUGGESTS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT KLSE
AS IT SATURATES THE SURFACE. THE RAP ONLY GOES OUT TO ABOUT
03.08Z RIGHT NOW BUT SHOWS A LARGE SURFACE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD
AND THE 02.06Z GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SATURATE OVERNIGHT. THE
02.09Z SREF MEAN SOUNDING ALSO DOES NOT SATURATE BUT DOES COME
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF DOING SO. THE NAM CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE
TOO MOIST WITH THE LOW LEVELS SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
NOT MUCH THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LA CROSSE NORTH
TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. MEANWHILE THE FLOOD CREST ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH OF
LA CROSSE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014
HERE ARE THE RECORD COLD MAXIMUM FOR TODAY.
AUSTIN MN - 68 IN 1945
CHARLES CITY IA - 67 IN 1917
DECORAH IA - 71 IN 2001
LA CROSSE - 63 IN 1892
MEDFORD WI - 61 IN 2009
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI - 67 IN 2009
RICHLAND CENTER WI - 64 IN 2009
ROCHESTER MN - 62 IN 1892
SPARTA WI - 64 IN 2009
WINONA MN - 65 IN 2009
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.
AUSTIN MN - 43 IN 1940
CHARLES CITY IA - 45 IN 1967
DECORAH IA - 41 IN 1924
LA CROSSE WI - 49 IN 1968
MEDFORD WI - 37 IN 1927
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI - 45 IN 1968
RICHLAND CENTER WI - 43 IN 1995
ROCHESTER MN - 44 IN 1917
SPARTA WI - 40 IN 1968
WINONA MN - 49 IN 1995
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
CLIMATE...BOYNE