Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/01/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
653 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRED ALONG THE MONO COUNTY SIERRA CREST
AND WERE BACKBUILDING AS FAR NORTH AS MARKLEEVILLE WHICH COINCIDES
WELL WITH THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS WHICH KEEP CURRENT CONVECTION
GOING THROUGH SUNDOWN. CELLS WERE NOT MOVING MUCH WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING UNDER STRONGER CELLS. AN OBSERVATION
NORTHWEST OF BRIDGEPORT SHOWED MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NEARLY A
THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN SO FAR.
ALSO, LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LOW TRACKING QUICKLY
TOWARD THE COAST THIS EVENING. THE 18Z NAM MAINTAINS SOME LIGHT
QPF ALONG THE SIERRA CREST OVERNIGHT AS CONDITIONS ALOFT BECOMING
MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION. SURFACE HEATING WILL WANE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CELLS
STARTING BEFORE DAYBREAK GIVEN CURRENT TRACK AND SPEED OF SYSTEM.
SO HAVE PUSHED THE ISOLATED COVERAGE UP THE CREST A BIT INTO
ALPINE COUNTY THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 04Z, AND THEN START IT
BACK UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN MONO-ALPINE COUNTIES. COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED UNTIL BEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY
ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HOHMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH
HIGHS EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES IN SOME WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ON TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LATER IN THE WEEK, RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES EASING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH DRY AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM...
TOWERING CUMULUS IS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA CREST IN
MONO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN MONO COUNTY TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
LOW 100S IN THE WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK OUT ON TUESDAY AS 700MB TEMPS REACH TO
+17C. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WE
SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORDS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE SIERRA FROM THE
PACIFIC TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. WE CAN ALREADY SEE ON THE
SATELLITE THAT THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING ALTOCUMULUS INSTABILITY
CLOUDS OFF THE CA COAST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, PRODUCING VIRGA AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THE MORNING HOURS. AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO AID
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
INITIATE IN THE EASTERN SIERRA EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
PUSH NORTH AND EAST INTO WESTERN NEVADA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ZEPHYR WINDS. DEEP INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 60+ MPH WITH DOWNBURST
CAPE VALUES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG.
WE EXPECT A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS ON TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 0.5-0.6 INCHES AND STORM MOTIONS OF 10-15KT.
WHILE SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL, THERE WILL BE
OTHER STORMS WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL AS WELL. RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF NEW LIGHTNING FIRES AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON RED FLAG
WARNINGS.
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO OREGON. BY WEDNESDAY, CONVECTIVE
FOCUS SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AS DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL AGAIN PUSH CONVECTION
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOME ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH OF PYRAMID LAKE. HOON
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THU-FRI IS MEDIUM BASED ON GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR A DRY, STABLE SOUTHWEST-WEST FLOW AND FAIRLY
PERSISTENT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU-FRI ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 80S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S IN THE BASIN
AND RANGE.
FOR SATURDAY AND BEYOND MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS
ADVERTISING A STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND A WEAKER RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ABOUT HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE
LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THIS PATTERN WHILE THE OTHER HALF SHOW MORE.
THUS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR SATURDAY AND BEYOND WITH RESPECT TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. FOR INSTANCE,
THE GFS IMPLIES LOW 90S OVER FAR WESTERN NEVADA WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATES UPPER 90S. THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION BECAUSE THE GFS SEEMS TO FAVOR THE TROUGH/WEAKEN THE RIDGE
TOO MUCH IN THESE SITUATIONS. A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM, BUT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
SUN-MON (CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM).
ALSO, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER MONDAY AS
PROGGED BY A FEW OF THE GFS MEMBERS. IF IT IS, IT COULD BRING
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION INTO NORTHERN CA/NV AS SOON AS MONDAY. JCM
AVIATION...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS (OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS) THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ARE EXPECTED OVER MONO COUNTY, ESPECIALLY NEAR/WEST OF
HIGHWAY 395. STORM BASES WILL BE ABOVE 16 KFT MSL SO THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE TURBULENCE, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 40
KTS AND LIGHTNING.
TUESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE SIERRA CREST MAINLY
SOUTH OF TAHOE, AND THEN TRANSITION INTO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS. SNYDER/MITTELSTADT
FIRE WEATHER...
DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING, A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SIERRA FROM THE TAHOE BASIN THROUGH
MONO COUNTY AND FOR WESTERN NEVADA ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT FROM
AROUND RENO METRO THROUGH MINERAL COUNTY.
RIDGING HAS PRODUCED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL APPROACH THE SIERRA EARLY
THIS MORNING BEFORE TRANSITING NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY ALONG THE SIERRA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. COUPLED WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES, THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE ALONG THE SIERRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE OF
THE HYBRID VARIETY WITH SOME WET AND SOME DRY, BUT MOSTLY LEANING
DRY. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, THE CELL SPEEDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE
10 MPH TRENDING THE STORMS DRY. THESE DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR NEW FIRE STARTS.
ALSO, WITH CELL BASES ELEVATING FROM 16000 FEET TO AROUND 20000 FEET
AND DEEP INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS, STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL BE A
DISTINCT THREAT AS WELL. OUTFLOW GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 50-60
MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WOULD EXCEED 60 MPH IN THE VALLEYS.
DOWNDRAFT CAPES ARE QUITE HIGH FOR SIERRA FRONT LOCATIONS AROUND 500
TO 1000 J/KG. THIS CORRELATES TO MAXIMUM POTENTIAL GUSTS OVER 75
MPH, BUT IT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO FULLY REALIZE THIS POTENTIAL. GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH UP TO A VERY ISOLATED 70 MPH WOULD BE MORE LIKELY FOR
OUTFLOWS TOMORROW.
WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING LESS OF A THREAT AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST. THE
FLOW WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NEAR THE SIERRA, BUT STILL
HAVE SOME ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 AND NORTH OF
WALKER LAKE. WINDS BECOME MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRADIENT AS A LOW
DIPS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FORTUNATELY, THIS LOW IS NO LONGER
PROJECTED TO BRING A JET MAXIMUM OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN THE
LOWER THREAT FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. STILL, THE THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN TIGHT AND ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR WIND PRONE AREAS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR VERY ISOLATED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF TIME. BOYD
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY NVZ450-459.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY CAZ272-273.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
335 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014
DRY WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW LVL
MOISTURE HAS SCOURED OUT OVER THE PLAINS WITH CAPES BLO 500 OVER
THE FAR ERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTN. HOWEVER DEEPER LOW LVL MOISTUE
MAY RETURN THIS EVENING WITH HIGHER CAPES DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. THERE COULD BE A WK
CONVERGENCE ZONE AS WELL WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW STORMS THIS
EVENING SO WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS THRU MIDNIGHT.
ON MON WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS A WK COOL FNT
MOVES ACROSS NERN CO BY MIDDAY. THIS FNT WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR
AT THE LOWER LEVELS EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
SRN FOOTHILLS. THUS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN TSTMS CONFINED
TO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND SRN FOOTHILLS. ELSEWHERE WILL NOT MENTION
ANY TSTMS. HIGHS ON MON WILL BE A BIT COOLER OVER NERN CO HOWEVER
READINGS WILL STILL BE IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014
UPPER RIDGING IS GOING TO DOMINATE COLORADO WEATHER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. INITIALLY COLORADO WILL BE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR
ON TUESDAY AS WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT LOW LEVELS. SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN AND DEVELOP INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PRONE TO ROTATE OVER THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES...THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.
SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO WEAK STEERING WINDS
UNDER THE UPPER HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY AT LEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014
SO FAR WNW WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS HAVE NOT SPREAD OUT ACROSS WRN
AREAS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR AS OF 20Z. RAP AND HRRR STILL
INDICATE A WNW WIND SHIFT BETWEEN 21Z AND 22Z WHILE THE HI RES WRF
NEVER SHIFTS THE WINDS TO THE WNW. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THE HI
RES WRF MAY END UP BEING RIGHT. THIS EVENING WINDS SHOULD BECOME
DRAINAGE IN THE 04Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AND REMAIN SSW THRU 12Z MON.
ON MON A WK FNT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING NWLY BY
LATE MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN. AT THIS TIME NO
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
905 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FCST AS LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A FEW
HIGHER BASED TSTMS MAY DVLP LATE THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER ERN
ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE.
OTHERWISE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE SHOWS A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
TODAY OVER COLORADO WITH THE STRONGER JET STILL ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING. PLATTEVILLE PROFILER STILL SHOWING 40-50KT WIND SPEEDS
JUST ABOVE 500MB. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUT NORTHERN
COLORADO IN WEAK SUBSIDENCE THROUGH TODAY.
A FEW SUBTLE FEATURES THAT MAY EFFECT WEATHER ON THE PLAINS. LATE
NIGHT CONVECTION OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS HAS
RESULTED IN SOME STRATUS OVER ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES SO HAVE
ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASE IN MOISTURE VALUES
OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S.
MOST OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE
IS A BIT DEEPER FURTHER EAST. COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OVER
LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES AFTER 3 PM AND THROUGH EVENING. LATEST
SIMULATED WRF/NAM SIMULATED IMAGERY SHOWING BOUNDARY FROM LAST
NIGHTS STORM WITH ADDITIONAL INTERACTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER
EAST CENTRAL CO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS
SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE MAINLY GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE FRONT RANGE AND MOUNTAINS...DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE WITH SOME CLOUD BUILD UPS BUT DOUBT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S. GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT STILL
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OVER HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES THIS AM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014
ON MONDAY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES DEEPENS AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL VORTEX TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE
FRONT RANGE ALLOWS FOR A WEAK...MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT TO RACE
SOUTH THRU ERN COLORADO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS ON MONDAY.
THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS QUITE DRY INITIALLY...BUT AS
THE N-NWLY BNDRY LAYER FLOW TURNS MORE NELY-UPSLOPE...SFC-600 MB
MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...CAPES AND STABILITY ONLY MARGINAL FOR
T-STORM PRODUCTION ON THE PLAINS. WHEREAS OROGRAPHICS/UPSLOPE FLOW
AND STG DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO SPAWN A FEW T-STORMS
OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY...WITH
GUSTY DOWNDRAFT/MICROBURST WINDS PRIMARY PRODUCT OF THIS LOW TOP
CONVECTION. MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT
BACKING INTO NERN COLORADO DURING THE EVENING HRS IN ADVANCE OF A
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE RACING SEWRD FROM OVER NWRN WYOMING. MODELS
INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE QG ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT
SWINGS ACROSS NERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
PUSH UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE SOMETIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z/TUE
BASED ON SFC/850/BNDRY LAYER WIND AND TEMP FIELDS. AND WITH THE
FORCING ALOFT AND MOIST UPSLOPE IN PLACE...COULD SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS AND/OR T-STORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY
OVER AND NEAR THE SRN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE.
POST-FRONTAL COOLING WILL BE MOST NOTICABLE ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES
OVERHEAD. ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO FORM ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE
LARGELY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
DENVER AREA...AND NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON THE
PLAINS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F BELOW
AVERAGE. HIGHS NOW AVERAGE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. SHOULD SEE LITTLE
FLUCTUATION IN HIGH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE
CONT DVD. TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS IN AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS COULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUD WITH PERHAPS SOME
FOG ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
REALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN FROM THIS LOW CLOUD
COVER.
ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY REBOUND AS EASTERLY/UPSLOPE
FLOW SHIFTS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE/HEAT DOME BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN MAKES SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS TOWARDS COLORADO. THIS RESULTS IN DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT
DUE LARGELY TO SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...STEEP 0-3KM LAPSE RATES...
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SELY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE
TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED T-STORM COVERAGE ACRS SWRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE
WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE
ROCKY MTN REGION BRINGING WITH IT LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT. AT LOWER
LEVELS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS STRANDS OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES AND UP INTO
COLORADO. THE BULK OF THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR APPEARS TO
ORIGINATE FROM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
SLOWLY UP THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE APPEARS
TO STAY OVER AND WEST OF THE MTNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER BY
SATURDAY MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING TOP OF THE RIDGE
WHICH MAY SHIFT THE AXIS OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME EAST OF THE
MTNS...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF T-STORMS ON THE PLAINS. FOR
NOW...WILL HANG ONTO LOW POPS ALL THREE DAYS AND WAIT TO SEE HOW
THIS MONSOON LOOKING PATTERN SETS UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014
WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT SELY THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP SHOWS A WEAK
WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW AROUND 21Z WHICH LASTS THRU 01Z. IN THE
EVENING WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO DRAINAGE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
851 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
850 PM
HAVE COORDINATED WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUING A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS THE AREA FOR SECOND
LINE OF AGGRESSIVE STORMS.
REGARDING FLASH FLOODING THREAT...THE NEXT LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS IS ON A SUSTAINED COLD POOL THAT HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. VERY HIGH ABSOLUTE MOISTURE
CONTENT /PWATS OF 1.75+ INCHES/ AND CONTINUED REPLENISHMENT ON
A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUSTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES PER 30 TO 60 MINUTES AS THIS COMPLEX MOVES EASTWARD. IN
ADDITION...SEEING SIGNS OF A MESOSCALE WARM-AIR ADVECTION WING
WITH SCATTERED CELLS ACROSS DEKALB AND KANE COUNTIES. THIS COULD
MEAN A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED CONVECTION WHICH
WOULD FAVOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIALLY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 88 CORRIDOR...AND POSSIBLY INTO PARTS OF THE CHICAGO
METRO. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE CONSIDERING THE EARLIER RAINFALL
TODAY AS WELL AS THE ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS IN THE PAST TWO
WEEKS. WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY AND IF 1. A QUICKER FORWARD
PROPAGATION TO THE COMPLEX IS NOT SEEN AND 2. REPORTS OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE RECEIVED ACROSS WINNEBAGO...OGLE...AND LEE
COUNTIES...THEN WILL LIKELY NOT WAIT LONG FOR FLASH FLOOD WARNING
ISSUANCES FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST.
MTF
&&
.DISCUSSION...
117 PM CDT
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE ON SEVERE
WEATHER TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY. THE SPC HAS EXPANDED THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...WITH
THE FOCUS BEING ON DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70MPH AND LARGE HAIL.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEW POINTS...AND PWAT VALUES ARND 1.5 TO
1.75"...WHATEVER CONVECTION OCCURS COULD BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND AS SUCH WOULD INTRODUCE A
FLOODING CONCERN DESPITE STORMS FORWARD PROPAGATION. WHILE THE
PROBABILITY IS NOT ZERO FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...THE GREATEST FOCUS
FOR THIS WILL BE WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN IOWA. IF WINDS
CAN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST HOWEVER...THIS WOULD INTRODUCE INCREASED
HELICITY TO THE AREA.
THE FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE ACTIVITY PRESENTLY
ONGOING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA. VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS A
BOUNDARY DEPICTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA STRETCHING EAST TO JUST
SOUTH OF MOLINE THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IL TO
JUST SOUTH OF TERRE HAUTE IN. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY DEW
PTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S...WHILE TO THE NORTH DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE UPR 60S. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO BUMP BACK INTO THE LOW 70S WITH A
SOUTHERLY WIND. THE WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST/EAST EARLY
THIS AFTN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...AND WITH THE CIRRUS SHIELD
BEGINNING TO THIN OVER EASTERN IOWA EARLY THIS AFTN...THE ATMOSPHERE
SHUD ONLY FURTHER DESTABILIZE.
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS A LINE SEGMENT PUSHING INTO
EASTERN IOWA BY 20-22Z...THEN THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THIS FEATURE ARRIVES ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN ALONG WITH
TIMING. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE
AND UNIDIRECTIONAL MEAN LAYER FLOW...IT DOES SUPPORT THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION THAT ARRIVES ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN IL TO MORPH
INTO A BOWING SEGMENT AND POSSIBLY TRANSITION INTO A DERECHO TYPE
EVENT...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY LEVEL SHOULD QUICKLY LEVEL OFF LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
THE TIMING TO HAVE PUSHED THRU THE CWFA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THEN THE
DRY SLOT ARRIVES...HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO HOLD ONTO SOME LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE REMAINING...SO THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED LATER THIS EVENING
AND GO WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LEADING VORT WILL PIVOT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TUE...WITH THE DRY
SLOT STILL BEING PROGGED TO KEEP DRY CONDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THRU THE BULK OF THE DAY TUE. BY MID/LATE AFTN THE MID-LVL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH ANY SFC
DESTABILIZATION...A FEW ISO TSRA COULD DEVELOP FROM THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND COOLING IN THE MID-LVLS. WITH THE FLOW REMAINING
PROGRESSIVE...THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD BY 03Z WED AND SHUD
BRING A QUICK END TO ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWFA
WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING A TRAILING
WEAK TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WED MORNING...WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A CHC FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
WED. WITH CONSIDERABLE SOLAR SHIELDING WED...AND A THERMAL TROUGH OF
6 TO 8 DEG C OVERHEAD...TEMPS COULD STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND 70-74
FOR NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT A FEW POINTS IN
FAR NORTHERN IL THAT REMAIN IN THE UPR 60S WED AFTN.
BROAD TROUGH THEN PUSHES EAST WED NGT...WITH SFC ANTI-CYCLONIC
FEATURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO DRY THE
LOW-LEVELS OUT AND ALLOW WINDS TO TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THEN FOR
THUR THE NORTHERLY DRY FLOW WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S. A LAKE BREEZE LOOKS LIKELY AND COULD KEEP ON
ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE ADJACENT LAKE SHORE COMMUNITIES AND TEMPS IN
THE 60S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROG A RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...ALLOWING A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO BE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES THE WAVE
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX...ALTHOUGH THE MID-LVL TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST BY
SAT/SUN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHUD
ALLOW TEMPS TO SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL CONDS. ALTHOUGH AS THE
WEEKEND PROGRESSES...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN DOES TRANSITION INTO A
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW WITH HEIGHTS STEADILY INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CONUS. TEMPS FOR FRI SHUD CONTINUE TO BE SUB-SEASONAL IN THE 70S
NEAR 80...THEN BACK TO ARND 80 OR LOW 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY
NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN DOES APPEAR TO POINT TOWARDS TEMPS RETURNING
TO LOW/MID 80S. IN ADDITION TO THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW...IT DOES SUPPORT
A QUICK WEST-EAST FLOW OF WEAK WAVES. THIS COULD EASILY BRING A LOW
CHC POPS FOR THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS. SECONDARY LINE
OVER IOWA TO FOLLOW LATER THIS EVENING. ETA ON THAT LINE IS
02-04Z.
* POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO GUST UP TO 45 KT WITH LEADING EDGE OF THE
CURRENT INITIAL LINE.
* POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR VSBYS UNDER HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORM. POOREST
CONDITIONS LAST 20-30 MINUTES. RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER FOR
ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS AFTER THAT... AND BEFORE THE SECOND LINE OF
STORMS.
* GREATLY DISTURBED WIND FIELD FOLLOWING THE INITIAL LINE OF
STORMS SHOULD TREND EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF SECOND LINE.
* WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND SECOND LINE BEFORE REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LINEAR LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SHOWING SOME UPTICK AS
IT MOVES INTO THE METRO AREA. LEADING EDGE GUSTS RUNNING 35-40 KTS
PER UPSTREAM GROUND TRUTH. LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS TO UNDER 1 MILE
EXPECTED AS 20-30 MINUTE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDER MOVES
THROUGH THE TERMINALS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 45 KTS.
PERIOD OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER FOLLOWS INITIAL LINE FOR 1-2
HOURS AS WINDS BECOME DISTURBED FROM LINE OF STORMS AND TURNS MORE
NE TO EAST. SECOND LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES AND IS POISED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS BETWEEN THE 02Z-04Z TIME FRAME. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF DISRUPTIVE STORMS WITH THIS LINE AND WILL REFINE
IT`S TIMING IN THE COMING HOUR.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SECOND LINE OF STORMS
BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED FOR 20-30 MINUTES WITH THE
SECOND LINE AS WINDS AGAIN TURN NORTHWEST WITH THE LINE AND FOR A
SHORT TIME FOLLOWING.
ED F
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE OF WIND FORECAST WITH WINDS DISTURBED BY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 05Z.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM FORECAST TRENDS
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...VFR CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY...VFR DRY.
FRIDAY...VFR DRY.
SATURDAY...VFR DRY.
SUNDAY...SLGT CHANCE OF TSRA.
ED F
&&
.MARINE...
303 PM CDT
PRIMARY MARINE CONCERN IS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND SOUTH HALF
THIS EVENING AS AN INTENSE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY HOLDS
TOGETHER AND BRINGS A PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY STRONG WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAVE LEFT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH
HALF UNTIL THIS EVENING. BEFORE CLOUDS MOVED OVERHEAD...VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED A BANK OF FOG COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE LAKE. SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL MAY BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THIS EVENING IN THE NEARSHORE BUT
DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST AN ADVISORY.
HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT WIND CRITERIA BEING MET ON
TUESDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING FROM LAND WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KT OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT GUSTY WINDS MAY
EXTEND A BIT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER
THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY. AN FAIRLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS WITH DIRECTIONS
NEAR THE SHORES CONTROLLED BY LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES BY DAY WILL
ENSUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEST
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032 UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...9 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
840 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 840 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
Initial tornado watch was allowed to expire, as the first wave of
storms passed over the far northern CWA. Some capping has been
keeping storms from firing further south so far this evening,
despite extreme MUCAPE values in the 5000 J/kg vicinity. However,
second line of intense storms currently extending from just west
of Rockford into far southeast Iowa, then back into northwest
Missouri. There will be some battling between the cap in our area
vs the air being worked over already in the north (outflow
boundary has made it between Peoria and Lincoln with temps around
70 north of it). However, the latest HRRR has this lined up fairly
well, and shows the line making it to about Jacksonville and
Bloomington between 10-11 pm albeit in a weakening state. Have
updated the grids to significantly beef up the PoP`s and rain
totals in the northwest this evening, and refined the southern
extent. Will send out corresponding zones shortly.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 642 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
Much of the severe convection that was previously forecast to push
into west-central Illinois early this evening has actually tracked
much further north across eastern Iowa into northern Illinois.
Still monitoring outflow boundary left behind by the storms,
stretching from near KPIA to just north of KMCI. Scattered strong
to severe cells have developed along this boundary across northern
Missouri, and are expected to continue to develop/track
northeastward into central Illinois later this evening. Exact
areal coverage still remains uncertain: however, most model
guidance agrees that at least scattered convection will arrive at
the TAF sites after dark. Will therefore carry a TEMPO group for
thunder at all terminals with thunder threat ending after 07z.
Have downplayed the previous wind forecast as an organized line of
severe convection is no longer expected. Once the storms
dissipate, skies will clear overnight into Tuesday morning.
Forecast soundings are fairly dry for Tuesday, with Cu-rule only
suggesting scattered clouds at around 5000ft.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 338 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
Not many changes overall to the expected weather scenario for the
next week. Discussion will be abbreviated due to ongoing severe
weather preparedness & operations.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday: Lingering uncertainty
exists with respect to the evolution of the storm complex heading
east across Iowa. Most of forecast area remains in a Moderate Risk
for severe weather through tonight, although the main threat
should be over this evening. Current bow echo, surging east into
northwest Illinois, is expected to stay north of the forecast
area as flow backs southwest ahead of an advancing upper trof.
However, additional development remains possible, and is suggested
by many mesoscale models, along the boundary extending southwest
from the main bow in a strongly sheared and highly unstable
environment. Very heavy rain remains a threat with any storms the
impact the area tonight, with precipitable water values in excess
of 1.5 inches, though rapid storm movement should mitigate the
flooding threat to some degree.
Expect storms to taper off overnight with the loss of diurnal
instability and as the surface cold front sweeps through the area.
The bulk of the remainder of the short term period should be quiet
and cooler than normal. Northwest upper level flow will
predominate, with high pressure at the surface more often than
not. Still signs of a spoke of energy moving through the mean
upper trof around Wednesday, which may bring a chance of rainfall
to the area. However, most of the models are less bullish than
they have been.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday: Temperatures will begin to
moderate heading into the weekend as low level flow turns
southerly on the back side of the surface high. The turning flow
will also help richer moisture to return to the area. A northwest
flow wave is still expected by late in the weekend, and this will
result in our next organized risk of showers/storms.
Bak
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
655 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT FOCUS IS WITH THE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION JUST WEST OF
BUREAU COUNTY. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A REAR INFLOW JET
TRYING TO DEVELOP...WHICH COULD FAVOR THIS STORM TO TRANSITION INTO
ANOTHER FORWARD PROPAGATING BOWING SEGMENT WITHIN THE HALF HOUR. IF
THIS DOES OCCUR...THIS BOWING SEGMENT WOULD LIKELY SHIFT EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE I-80 TO I-88 CORRIDORS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE CHICAGO AREA AROUND 7 PM. WE
WILL BE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO LINE UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN
ILLINOIS...AND OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA
IS ALONG THE GRADIENT OF A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WITH
AROUND 5000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 2 INCH PWATS...AS INDICATED FROM
LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING
TO STREAM INTO THIS AREA VIA STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS...CONTINUED
REGENERATION OF STORMS IS LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS...AND
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST...SETTING UP TRAINING STORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY INCREASES THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND AS SUCH...WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD MUCH FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
KJB
&&
.DISCUSSION...
117 PM CDT
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE ON SEVERE
WEATHER TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY. THE SPC HAS EXPANDED THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...WITH
THE FOCUS BEING ON DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70MPH AND LARGE HAIL.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEW POINTS...AND PWAT VALUES ARND 1.5 TO
1.75"...WHATEVER CONVECTION OCCURS COULD BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND AS SUCH WOULD INTRODUCE A
FLOODING CONCERN DESPITE STORMS FORWARD PROPAGATION. WHILE THE
PROBABILITY IS NOT ZERO FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...THE GREATEST FOCUS
FOR THIS WILL BE WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN IOWA. IF WINDS
CAN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST HOWEVER...THIS WOULD INTRODUCE INCREASED
HELICITY TO THE AREA.
THE FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE ACTIVITY PRESENTLY
ONGOING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA. VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS A
BOUNDARY DEPICTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA STRETCHING EAST TO JUST
SOUTH OF MOLINE THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IL TO
JUST SOUTH OF TERRE HAUTE IN. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY DEW
PTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S...WHILE TO THE NORTH DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE UPR 60S. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO BUMP BACK INTO THE LOW 70S WITH A
SOUTHERLY WIND. THE WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST/EAST EARLY
THIS AFTN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...AND WITH THE CIRRUS SHIELD
BEGINNING TO THIN OVER EASTERN IOWA EARLY THIS AFTN...THE ATMOSPHERE
SHUD ONLY FURTHER DESTABILIZE.
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS A LINE SEGMENT PUSHING INTO
EASTERN IOWA BY 20-22Z...THEN THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THIS FEATURE ARRIVES ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN ALONG WITH
TIMING. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE
AND UNIDIRECTIONAL MEAN LAYER FLOW...IT DOES SUPPORT THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION THAT ARRIVES ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN IL TO MORPH
INTO A BOWING SEGMENT AND POSSIBLY TRANSITION INTO A DERECHO TYPE
EVENT...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY LEVEL SHOULD QUICKLY LEVEL OFF LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
THE TIMING TO HAVE PUSHED THRU THE CWFA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THEN THE
DRY SLOT ARRIVES...HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO HOLD ONTO SOME LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE REMAINING...SO THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED LATER THIS EVENING
AND GO WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LEADING VORT WILL PIVOT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TUE...WITH THE DRY
SLOT STILL BEING PROGGED TO KEEP DRY CONDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THRU THE BULK OF THE DAY TUE. BY MID/LATE AFTN THE MID-LVL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH ANY SFC
DESTABILIZATION...A FEW ISO TSRA COULD DEVELOP FROM THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND COOLING IN THE MID-LVLS. WITH THE FLOW REMAINING
PROGRESSIVE...THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD BY 03Z WED AND SHUD
BRING A QUICK END TO ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWFA
WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING A TRAILING
WEAK TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WED MORNING...WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A CHC FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
WED. WITH CONSIDERABLE SOLAR SHIELDING WED...AND A THERMAL TROUGH OF
6 TO 8 DEG C OVERHEAD...TEMPS COULD STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND 70-74
FOR NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT A FEW POINTS IN
FAR NORTHERN IL THAT REMAIN IN THE UPR 60S WED AFTN.
BROAD TROUGH THEN PUSHES EAST WED NGT...WITH SFC ANTI-CYCLONIC
FEATURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO DRY THE
LOW-LEVELS OUT AND ALLOW WINDS TO TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THEN FOR
THUR THE NORTHERLY DRY FLOW WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S. A LAKE BREEZE LOOKS LIKELY AND COULD KEEP ON
ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE ADJACENT LAKE SHORE COMMUNITIES AND TEMPS IN
THE 60S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROG A RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...ALLOWING A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO BE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES THE WAVE
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX...ALTHOUGH THE MID-LVL TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST BY
SAT/SUN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHUD
ALLOW TEMPS TO SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL CONDS. ALTHOUGH AS THE
WEEKEND PROGRESSES...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN DOES TRANSITION INTO A
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW WITH HEIGHTS STEADILY INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CONUS. TEMPS FOR FRI SHUD CONTINUE TO BE SUB-SEASONAL IN THE 70S
NEAR 80...THEN BACK TO ARND 80 OR LOW 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY
NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN DOES APPEAR TO POINT TOWARDS TEMPS RETURNING
TO LOW/MID 80S. IN ADDITION TO THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW...IT DOES SUPPORT
A QUICK WEST-EAST FLOW OF WEAK WAVES. THIS COULD EASILY BRING A LOW
CHC POPS FOR THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS. SECONDARY LINE
OVER IOWA TO FOLLOW LATER THIS EVENING. ETA ON THAT LINE IS
02-04Z.
* POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO GUST UP TO 45 KT WITH LEADING EDGE OF THE
CURRENT INITIAL LINE.
* POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR VSBYS UNDER HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORM. POOREST
CONDITIONS LAST 20-30 MINUTES. RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER FOR
ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS AFTER THAT... AND BEFORE THE SECOND LINE OF
STORMS.
* GREATLY DISTURBED WIND FIELD FOLLOWING THE INITIAL LINE OF
STORMS SHOULD TREND EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF SECOND LINE.
* WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND SECOND LINE BEFORE REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LINEAR LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SHOWING SOME UPTICK AS
IT MOVES INTO THE METRO AREA. LEADING EDGE GUSTS RUNNING 35-40 KTS
PER UPSTREAM GROUND TRUTH. LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS TO UNDER 1 MILE
EXPECTED AS 20-30 MINUTE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDER MOVES
THROUGH THE TERMINALS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 45 KTS.
PERIOD OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER FOLLOWS INITIAL LINE FOR 1-2
HOURS AS WINDS BECOME DISTURBED FROM LINE OF STORMS AND TURNS MORE
NE TO EAST. SECOND LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES AND IS POISED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS BETWEEN THE 02Z-04Z TIME FRAME. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF DISRUPTIVE STORMS WITH THIS LINE AND WILL REFINE
IT`S TIMING IN THE COMING HOUR.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SECOND LINE OF STORMS
BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED FOR 20-30 MINUTES WITH THE
SECOND LINE AS WINDS AGAIN TURN NORTHWEST WITH THE LINE AND FOR A
SHORT TIME FOLLOWING.
ED F
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE OF WIND FORECAST WITH WINDS DISTURBED BY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 05Z.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM FORECAST TRENDS
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...VFR CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY...VFR DRY.
FRIDAY...VFR DRY.
SATURDAY...VFR DRY.
SUNDAY...SLGT CHANCE OF TSRA.
ED F
&&
.MARINE...
303 PM CDT
PRIMARY MARINE CONCERN IS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND SOUTH HALF
THIS EVENING AS AN INTENSE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY HOLDS
TOGETHER AND BRINGS A PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY STRONG WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAVE LEFT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH
HALF UNTIL THIS EVENING. BEFORE CLOUDS MOVED OVERHEAD...VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED A BANK OF FOG COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE LAKE. SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL MAY BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THIS EVENING IN THE NEARSHORE BUT
DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST AN ADVISORY.
HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT WIND CRITERIA BEING MET ON
TUESDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING FROM LAND WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KT OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT GUSTY WINDS MAY
EXTEND A BIT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER
THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY. AN FAIRLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS WITH DIRECTIONS
NEAR THE SHORES CONTROLLED BY LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES BY DAY WILL
ENSUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEST
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032 UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...9 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
505 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
204 PM CDT
TONIGHT...
LINGERING STRATUS CLOUDS FINALLY BURNED OFF LATE THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTN. VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES SOME OF THE CU FIELD WAS BECOMING AGITATED AND TRYING TO
BUILD SOUTH OF I-80 THIS AFTN...WHICH WAS THE REGION WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE WAS AVAILABLE AS DEW POINTS LINGERED ARND 70 TO LOW 70S.
THE STRONGER WAVE WAS STILL WELL WEST OF THE CWFA INTO
CENTRAL/WESTERN IOWA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTN/EVE WILL RESIDE. FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST
IN...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STEADILY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK WARM LAYER ALOFT...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS EXPECTED. WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS AFTN...ALTHOUGH A FEW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
LASALLE TO VALPARAISO COULD STILL TAG 90 THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE TEMPS
SHUD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPR 80S.
THE STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SHOW OR NO-SHOW IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTION. THEN IN WHAT CAPACITY WILL IT ARRIVE ACROSS A PORTION OF
OUR CWFA TONIGHT/EARLY MON. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST WE
ARE SITTING ON ABOUT 2K J/KG OF CAPE...UNFORTUNATELY A WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO A MINIMA THRU AT LEAST
23Z. UPSTREAM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE INHIBITION OVER
CENTRAL IA SHUD BEGIN TO DISSOLVE BY 20-21Z...AND EXPECT AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTIVE GROWTH THERE. LOCAL ARW8KM SOLUTION HAS A SIMILAR WARM
LAYER ALOFT...WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS A CAP AND COULD LINGER TO
ARND 00Z MON TO POSSIBLY 04Z.
UTILIZING THE BUNKER STORM MOTION...IT APPEARS THAT IF CONVECTION
CAN DEVELOP UPSTREAM IT WOULD SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CWFA
THEN TURN SOUTHEAST CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN CWFA. BUT THE QUESTION
REMAINS WILL CONVECTION BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE CWFA
TONIGHT...AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT THIS
LOOKS TO BE CHALLENGING.
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.
MONDAY...
THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE DAY OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. THE TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED IN
THE AFTN/EVE TIMEFRAME. THE DAY SHUD START OFF WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. PROFILES INDICATE STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES BY EARLY AFTN...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A SIZABLE PUSH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT THAT COULD KEEP THINGS CAPPED YET AGAIN THRU
21-22Z MON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE WAVE OVER IOWA ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A MID-LVL TROUGH/VORT TO BE THE FOCAL POINT.
THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AFT
21Z...SO THE TIMING OF LATE AFTN/EVE FOR GREATEST CONVECTIVE GROWTH
AND COVERAGE REMAINS IN PLACE. STORM MOTION MON EVE LOOKS TO BE
PUSHING EAST THEN BEGIN TURNING SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME SPC HAS THE
ENTIRE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK...WITH THE GREATEST HAZARDS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TEMPS MON WILL HINGE UPON THE MORNING CLOUD COVERAGE AND HOW QUICKLY
THAT CAN ERODE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TEMPS SHUD PUSH INTO THE
MID/UPR 80S WITH DEW PTS IN THE LOW 70S. THE COMBINATION WILL CREATE
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID/UPR 90S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRY SLOT QUICKLY ARRIVES BEHIND THE VORT PASSAGE TUE...WHICH SHUD
ALLOW MUCH OF TUE TO BE DRY. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH A MORE ROBUST MID-LVL TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION WED. ANOTHER LOBE OF
VORTICITY IS PROGGED TO PIVOT OVERHEAD WED MORNING...AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC FOR PRECIP. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE GENERAL SHOWERS. FLOW THEN TURNS
NORTHWESTERLY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWFA. TUE
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STILL TAG THE 80S...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM
BEYOND THE LOW/MID 70S WED/THUR. BROAD SFC RIDGE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS
IN WED NGT/THUR...WITH PLEASANT AND LESS HUMID CONDS DEVELOPING.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN MAY BE ADJUSTING FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS. IN CONCERT WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST...THERMAL
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THIS WILL LIKELY AID IN MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO POSSIBLY MID 80S. WHILE IT
LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE CWFA...IT IS POSSIBLE A
WEAK WAVE COULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND GENERATE SOME
LOW CHC POPS.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00-01Z.
* ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON POP UP TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF
TERMINALS.
* BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAY IMPACT TERMINALS
AFT 08Z.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
MONDAY.
* GUSTY TSRA LIKELY MONDAY EVENING AT ORD AND MDW.
ED F/MTF
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
BROAD SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON
MONDAY. EXPECTING TO SEE ISOLATED POP UP TSTMS IN THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON TODAY HOWEVER THOSE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. STRENGTHENING CAP
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON WILL HELP LIMIT DURATION AND CAUSE WHATS
OUT THERE NOW TO DIMINISH.
WAVES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER IOWA INITIALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO PASS NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... TRACK OF
STORM CLUSTERS TO TURN MORE EAST WITH TIME... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BEST CHANCES AT ORD AND MDW APPEARING NOW TO
BE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.
ED F
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR CLOUD/CIG TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
* LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
ED F/MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* MONDAY NIGHT...EVENING TSRA WITH STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
212 PM CDT
UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIES OVER MANITOBA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE ARE HELPING TO KEEP THE WINDS IN
CHECK TO SOME DEGREE...BUT SOME SHIPS HAVE REPORTED WINDS TO
AROUND 30 KT SO FAR TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE MODERATE WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH ON
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. ALSO...DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S HAVE BEEN
TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE. THERE IS NO
CLEAR REASON FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE UNTIL LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE. WILL EXTEND
THE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO BEYOND
THAT EVEN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
249 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
204 PM CDT
TONIGHT...
LINGERING STRATUS CLOUDS FINALLY BURNED OFF LATE THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTN. VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES SOME OF THE CU FIELD WAS BECOMING AGITATED AND TRYING TO
BUILD SOUTH OF I-80 THIS AFTN...WHICH WAS THE REGION WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE WAS AVAILABLE AS DEW POINTS LINGERED ARND 70 TO LOW 70S.
THE STRONGER WAVE WAS STILL WELL WEST OF THE CWFA INTO
CENTRAL/WESTERN IOWA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTN/EVE WILL RESIDE. FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST
IN...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STEADILY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK WARM LAYER ALOFT...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS EXPECTED. WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS AFTN...ALTHOUGH A FEW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
LASALLE TO VALPARAISO COULD STILL TAG 90 THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE TEMPS
SHUD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPR 80S.
THE STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SHOW OR NO-SHOW IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTION. THEN IN WHAT CAPACITY WILL IT ARRIVE ACROSS A PORTION OF
OUR CWFA TONIGHT/EARLY MON. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST WE
ARE SITTING ON ABOUT 2K J/KG OF CAPE...UNFORTUNATELY A WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO A MINIMA THRU AT LEAST
23Z. UPSTREAM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE INHIBITION OVER
CENTRAL IA SHUD BEGIN TO DISSOLVE BY 20-21Z...AND EXPECT AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTIVE GROWTH THERE. LOCAL ARW8KM SOLUTION HAS A SIMILAR WARM
LAYER ALOFT...WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS A CAP AND COULD LINGER TO
ARND 00Z MON TO POSSIBLY 04Z.
UTILIZING THE BUNKER STORM MOTION...IT APPEARS THAT IF CONVECTION
CAN DEVELOP UPSTREAM IT WOULD SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CWFA
THEN TURN SOUTHEAST CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN CWFA. BUT THE QUESTION
REMAINS WILL CONVECTION BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE CWFA
TONIGHT...AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT THIS
LOOKS TO BE CHALLENGING.
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.
MONDAY...
THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE DAY OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. THE TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED IN
THE AFTN/EVE TIMEFRAME. THE DAY SHUD START OFF WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. PROFILES INDICATE STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES BY EARLY AFTN...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A SIZABLE PUSH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT THAT COULD KEEP THINGS CAPPED YET AGAIN THRU
21-22Z MON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE WAVE OVER IOWA ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A MID-LVL TROUGH/VORT TO BE THE FOCAL POINT.
THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AFT
21Z...SO THE TIMING OF LATE AFTN/EVE FOR GREATEST CONVECTIVE GROWTH
AND COVERAGE REMAINS IN PLACE. STORM MOTION MON EVE LOOKS TO BE
PUSHING EAST THEN BEGIN TURNING SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME SPC HAS THE
ENTIRE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK...WITH THE GREATEST HAZARDS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TEMPS MON WILL HINGE UPON THE MORNING CLOUD COVERAGE AND HOW QUICKLY
THAT CAN ERODE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TEMPS SHUD PUSH INTO THE
MID/UPR 80S WITH DEW PTS IN THE LOW 70S. THE COMBINATION WILL CREATE
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID/UPR 90S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRY SLOT QUICKLY ARRIVES BEHIND THE VORT PASSAGE TUE...WHICH SHUD
ALLOW MUCH OF TUE TO BE DRY. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH A MORE ROBUST MID-LVL TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION WED. ANOTHER LOBE OF
VORTICITY IS PROGGED TO PIVOT OVERHEAD WED MORNING...AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC FOR PRECIP. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE GENERAL SHOWERS. FLOW THEN TURNS
NORTHWESTERLY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWFA. TUE
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STILL TAG THE 80S...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM
BEYOND THE LOW/MID 70S WED/THUR. BROAD SFC RIDGE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS
IN WED NGT/THUR...WITH PLEASANT AND LESS HUMID CONDS DEVELOPING.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN MAY BE ADJUSTING FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS. IN CONCERT WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST...THERMAL
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THIS WILL LIKELY AID IN MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO POSSIBLY MID 80S. WHILE IT
LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE CWFA...IT IS POSSIBLE A
WEAK WAVE COULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND GENERATE SOME
LOW CHC POPS.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00-01Z.
* ISOLATED AFTERNOON POP UP TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF
TERMINALS.
* BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT... MAY IMPACT TERMINALS
AFT 08Z.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
MONDAY.
* TSRA LIKELY MONDAY EVENING AT ORD AND MDW.
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
BROAD SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON
MONDAY. EXPECTING TO SEE ISOLATED POP UP TSTMS IN THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON TODAY HOWEVER THOSE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. STRENGTHENING CAP
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON WILL HELP LIMIT DURATION AND CAUSE WHATS
OUT THERE NOW TO DIMINISH.
WAVES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER IOWA INITIALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO PASS NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... TRACK OF
STORM CLUSTERS TO TURN MORE EAST WITH TIME... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BEST CHANCES AT ORD AND MDW APPEARING NOW TO
BE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.
ED F
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR CLOUD/CIG TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
* LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* MONDAY NIGHT...EVENING TSRA WITH STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
212 PM CDT
UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIES OVER MANITOBA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE ARE HELPING TO KEEP THE WINDS IN
CHECK TO SOME DEGREE...BUT SOME SHIPS HAVE REPORTED WINDS TO
AROUND 30 KT SO FAR TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE MODERATE WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH ON
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. ALSO...DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S HAVE BEEN
TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE. THERE IS NO
CLEAR REASON FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE UNTIL LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE. WILL EXTEND
THE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO BEYOND
THAT EVEN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
214 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
204 PM CDT
TONIGHT...
LINGERING STRATUS CLOUDS FINALLY BURNED OFF LATE THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTN. VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES SOME OF THE CU FIELD WAS BECOMING AGITATED AND TRYING TO
BUILD SOUTH OF I-80 THIS AFTN...WHICH WAS THE REGION WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE WAS AVAILABLE AS DEW POINTS LINGERED ARND 70 TO LOW 70S.
THE STRONGER WAVE WAS STILL WELL WEST OF THE CWFA INTO
CENTRAL/WESTERN IOWA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTN/EVE WILL RESIDE. FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST
IN...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STEADILY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK WARM LAYER ALOFT...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS EXPECTED. WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS AFTN...ALTHOUGH A FEW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
LASALLE TO VALPARAISO COULD STILL TAG 90 THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE TEMPS
SHUD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPR 80S.
THE STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SHOW OR NO-SHOW IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTION. THEN IN WHAT CAPACITY WILL IT ARRIVE ACROSS A PORTION OF
OUR CWFA TONIGHT/EARLY MON. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST WE
ARE SITTING ON ABOUT 2K J/KG OF CAPE...UNFORTUNATELY A WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO A MINIMA THRU AT LEAST
23Z. UPSTREAM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE INHIBITION OVER
CENTRAL IA SHUD BEGIN TO DISSOLVE BY 20-21Z...AND EXPECT AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTIVE GROWTH THERE. LOCAL ARW8KM SOLUTION HAS A SIMILAR WARM
LAYER ALOFT...WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS A CAP AND COULD LINGER TO
ARND 00Z MON TO POSSIBLY 04Z.
UTILIZING THE BUNKER STORM MOTION...IT APPEARS THAT IF CONVECTION
CAN DEVELOP UPSTREAM IT WOULD SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CWFA
THEN TURN SOUTHEAST CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN CWFA. BUT THE QUESTION
REMAINS WILL CONVECTION BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE CWFA
TONIGHT...AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT THIS
LOOKS TO BE CHALLENGING.
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.
MONDAY...
THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE DAY OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. THE TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED IN
THE AFTN/EVE TIMEFRAME. THE DAY SHUD START OFF WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. PROFILES INDICATE STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES BY EARLY AFTN...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A SIZABLE PUSH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT THAT COULD KEEP THINGS CAPPED YET AGAIN THRU
21-22Z MON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE WAVE OVER IOWA ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A MID-LVL TROUGH/VORT TO BE THE FOCAL POINT.
THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AFT
21Z...SO THE TIMING OF LATE AFTN/EVE FOR GREATEST CONVECTIVE GROWTH
AND COVERAGE REMAINS IN PLACE. STORM MOTION MON EVE LOOKS TO BE
PUSHING EAST THEN BEGIN TURNING SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME SPC HAS THE
ENTIRE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK...WITH THE GREATEST HAZARDS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TEMPS MON WILL HINGE UPON THE MORNING CLOUD COVERAGE AND HOW QUICKLY
THAT CAN ERODE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TEMPS SHUD PUSH INTO THE
MID/UPR 80S WITH DEW PTS IN THE LOW 70S. THE COMBINATION WILL CREATE
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID/UPR 90S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRY SLOT QUICKLY ARRIVES BEHIND THE VORT PASSAGE TUE...WHICH SHUD
ALLOW MUCH OF TUE TO BE DRY. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH A MORE ROBUST MID-LVL TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION WED. ANOTHER LOBE OF
VORTICITY IS PROGGED TO PIVOT OVERHEAD WED MORNING...AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC FOR PRECIP. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE GENERAL SHOWERS. FLOW THEN TURNS
NORTHWESTERLY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWFA. TUE
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STILL TAG THE 80S...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM
BEYOND THE LOW/MID 70S WED/THUR. BROAD SFC RIDGE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS
IN WED NGT/THUR...WITH PLEASANT AND LESS HUMID CONDS DEVELOPING.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN MAY BE ADJUSTING FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS. IN CONCERT WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST...THERMAL
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THIS WILL LIKELY AID IN MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO POSSIBLY MID 80S. WHILE IT
LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE CWFA...IT IS POSSIBLE A
WEAK WAVE COULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND GENERATE SOME
LOW CHC POPS.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* BRIEF DURATION MVFR CIG STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 19Z.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00-01Z.
* ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POP UP TSRA SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF TERMINALS.
* BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT... MAY IMPACT TERMINALS.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON MONDAY.
* TSRA LIKELY MONDAY EVENING.
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
BROAD SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON
MONDAY. EXPECTING TO SEE ISOLATED POP UP TSTMS IN THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON TODAY HOWEVER THOSE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED.
WAVES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER IOWA INITIALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO PASS NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... TRACK OF
STORM CLUSTERS TO TURN MORE EAST WITH TIME... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BEST CHANCES AT ORD AND MDW APPEARING NOW TO
BE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.
ED F
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR CLOUD/CIG TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
* LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* MONDAY NIGHT...EVENING TSRA WITH STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
212 PM CDT
UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIES OVER MANITOBA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE ARE HELPING TO KEEP THE WINDS IN
CHECK TO SOME DEGREE...BUT SOME SHIPS HAVE REPORTED WINDS TO
AROUND 30 KT SO FAR TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE MODERATE WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH ON
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. ALSO...DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S HAVE BEEN
TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE. THERE IS NO
CLEAR REASON FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE UNTIL LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE. WILL EXTEND
THE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO BEYOND
THAT EVEN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
204 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
204 PM CDT
TONIGHT...
LINGERING STRATUS CLOUDS FINALLY BURNED OFF LATE THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTN. VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES SOME OF THE CU FIELD WAS BECOMING AGITATED AND TRYING TO
BUILD SOUTH OF I-80 THIS AFTN...WHICH WAS THE REGION WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE WAS AVAILABLE AS DEW POINTS LINGERED ARND 70 TO LOW 70S.
THE STRONGER WAVE WAS STILL WELL WEST OF THE CWFA INTO
CENTRAL/WESTERN IOWA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTN/EVE WILL RESIDE. FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST
IN...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STEADILY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK WARM LAYER ALOFT...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS EXPECTED. WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS AFTN...ALTHOUGH A FEW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
LASALLE TO VALPARAISO COULD STILL TAG 90 THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE TEMPS
SHUD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPR 80S.
THE STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SHOW OR NO-SHOW IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTION. THEN IN WHAT CAPACITY WILL IT ARRIVE ACROSS A PORTION OF
OUR CWFA TONIGHT/EARLY MON. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST WE
ARE SITTING ON ABOUT 2K J/KG OF CAPE...UNFORTUNATELY A WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO A MINIMA THRU AT LEAST
23Z. UPSTREAM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE INHIBITION OVER
CENTRAL IA SHUD BEGIN TO DISSOLVE BY 20-21Z...AND EXPECT AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTIVE GROWTH THERE. LOCAL ARW8KM SOLUTION HAS A SIMILAR WARM
LAYER ALOFT...WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS A CAP AND COULD LINGER TO
ARND 00Z MON TO POSSIBLY 04Z.
UTILIZING THE BUNKER STORM MOTION...IT APPEARS THAT IF CONVECTION
CAN DEVELOP UPSTREAM IT WOULD SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CWFA
THEN TURN SOUTHEAST CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN CWFA. BUT THE QUESTION
REMAINS WILL CONVECTION BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE CWFA
TONIGHT...AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT THIS
LOOKS TO BE CHALLENGING.
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.
MONDAY...
THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE DAY OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. THE TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED IN
THE AFTN/EVE TIMEFRAME. THE DAY SHUD START OFF WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. PROFILES INDICATE STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES BY EARLY AFTN...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A SIZABLE PUSH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT THAT COULD KEEP THINGS CAPPED YET AGAIN THRU
21-22Z MON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE WAVE OVER IOWA ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A MID-LVL TROUGH/VORT TO BE THE FOCAL POINT.
THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AFT
21Z...SO THE TIMING OF LATE AFTN/EVE FOR GREATEST CONVECTIVE GROWTH
AND COVERAGE REMAINS IN PLACE. STORM MOTION MON EVE LOOKS TO BE
PUSHING EAST THEN BEGIN TURNING SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME SPC HAS THE
ENTIRE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK...WITH THE GREATEST HAZARDS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TEMPS MON WILL HINGE UPON THE MORNING CLOUD COVERAGE AND HOW QUICKLY
THAT CAN ERODE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TEMPS SHUD PUSH INTO THE
MID/UPR 80S WITH DEW PTS IN THE LOW 70S. THE COMBINATION WILL CREATE
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID/UPR 90S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRY SLOT QUICKLY ARRIVES BEHIND THE VORT PASSAGE TUE...WHICH SHUD
ALLOW MUCH OF TUE TO BE DRY. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH A MORE ROBUST MID-LVL TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION WED. ANOTHER LOBE OF
VORTICITY IS PROGGED TO PIVOT OVERHEAD WED MORNING...AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC FOR PRECIP. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE GENERAL SHOWERS. FLOW THEN TURNS
NORTHWESTERLY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWFA. TUE
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STILL TAG THE 80S...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM
BEYOND THE LOW/MID 70S WED/THUR. BROAD SFC RIDGE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS
IN WED NGT/THUR...WITH PLEASANT AND LESS HUMID CONDS DEVELOPING.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN MAY BE ADJUSTING FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS. IN CONCERT WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST...THERMAL
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THIS WILL LIKELY AID IN MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO POSSIBLY MID 80S. WHILE IT
LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE CWFA...IT IS POSSIBLE A
WEAK WAVE COULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND GENERATE SOME
LOW CHC POPS.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* BRIEF DURATION MVFR CIG STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 19Z.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00-01Z.
* ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POP UP TSRA SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF TERMINALS.
* BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT... MAY IMPACT TERMINALS.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON MONDAY.
* TSRA LIKELY MONDAY EVENING.
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
BROAD SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON
MONDAY. EXPECTING TO SEE ISOLATED POP UP TSTMS IN THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON TODAY HOWEVER THOSE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED.
WAVES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER IOWA INITIALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO PASS NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... TRACK OF
STORM CLUSTERS TO TURN MORE EAST WITH TIME... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BEST CHANCES AT ORD AND MDW APPEARING NOW TO
BE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.
ED F
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR CLOUD/CIG TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
* LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* MONDAY NIGHT...EVENING TSRA WITH STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
307 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO MONDAY REACHING JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTERLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE TODAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TONIGHT WHILE THE DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN MORE
PATCHY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1254 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
352 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
MAINLY LATER TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXIST. VERY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
GRADUAL COOLING/DRYING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY
AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE 4TH OF JULY FRIDAY...THEN
WARMING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGAIN LATER
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE THREAT
OF RAIN QUICKLY SHIFTING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. WEAK HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME CAP IS LIKELY TO BE
PRESENT AS INDICATED IN SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...WRF AND RAP SUGGEST
WEAKER CAPPING. SUSPECT A COUPLE OF MCVS ARE PRESENT UPSTREAM WITH
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST IA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD AID IN LOCALLY
WEAKENING CAP AND PRODUCING SOME FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM ABOUT 3 PM INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING STORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO A SEVERE MCS WHICH WOULD THEN SPREAD EAST INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL TIMING AFTER DARK
WOULD SUGGEST WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE FARTHER EAST
TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS EXPANDED THEIR DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MOST OF THE IL PORTION OF OUR CWA...WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT EXTENDING INTO WESTERN IL. DECAYING REMAINS OF OVERNIGHT
MCS SHOULD WORK TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THE COMBINATION OF A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
APPEARS FAIRLY HIGH FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY
2 OUTLOOK PLACES ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED
PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ESPECIALLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST. SEVERE
THREAT...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVERALL...WILL THEN DECREASE
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.
A SLOW COOLING/DRYING TREND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TUESDAY-THURSDAY...
AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRAVERSE THE SLOW MOVING LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
QPF DURING THE TRANSITION...MAINLY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY SPREADS INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY IN TIME FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY...
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SUNDAY LOOKS
WARMER AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS INTO THE MIDWEST...THOUGH WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOO.
TEMPERATURE WISE...BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH 850 MB TEMPS +20 TO +22 C. HAVE AGAIN GONE
ABOVE MOS NUMBERS FOR MAXES...BASED ON 925/950 MB THERMAL FIELDS AND
LOCAL CLIMO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUD COVER REMAIN THE WILD
CARDS WITH HIGH TEMPS...THOUGH LOW 90S SHOULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHERE SUFFICIENT SUN/HEATING OCCUR.
TEMPS THEN FALL OFF INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE LATER IN THE WEEK...
WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING LAKE SHORE AREAS IN THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* BRIEF DURATION MVFR CIG STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 19Z.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00-01Z.
* ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POP UP TSRA SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF TERMINALS.
* BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT... MAY IMPACT TERMINALS.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON MONDAY.
* TSRA LIKELY MONDAY EVENING.
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
BROAD SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON
MONDAY. EXPECTING TO SEE ISOLATED POP UP TSTMS IN THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON TODAY HOWEVER THOSE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED.
WAVES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER IOWA INITIALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO PASS NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... TRACK OF
STORM CLUSTERS TO TURN MORE EAST WITH TIME... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BEST CHANCES AT ORD AND MDW APPEARING NOW TO
BE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.
ED F
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR CLOUD/CIG TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
* LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* MONDAY NIGHT...EVENING TSRA WITH STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
307 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO MONDAY REACHING JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTERLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE TODAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TONIGHT WHILE THE DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN MORE
PATCHY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1110 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
352 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
MAINLY LATER TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXIST. VERY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
GRADUAL COOLING/DRYING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY
AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE 4TH OF JULY FRIDAY...THEN
WARMING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGAIN LATER
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE THREAT
OF RAIN QUICKLY SHIFTING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. WEAK HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME CAP IS LIKELY TO BE
PRESENT AS INDICATED IN SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...WRF AND RAP SUGGEST
WEAKER CAPPING. SUSPECT A COUPLE OF MCVS ARE PRESENT UPSTREAM WITH
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST IA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD AID IN LOCALLY
WEAKENING CAP AND PRODUCING SOME FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM ABOUT 3 PM INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING STORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO A SEVERE MCS WHICH WOULD THEN SPREAD EAST INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL TIMING AFTER DARK
WOULD SUGGEST WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE FARTHER EAST
TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS EXPANDED THEIR DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MOST OF THE IL PORTION OF OUR CWA...WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT EXTENDING INTO WESTERN IL. DECAYING REMAINS OF OVERNIGHT
MCS SHOULD WORK TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THE COMBINATION OF A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
APPEARS FAIRLY HIGH FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY
2 OUTLOOK PLACES ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED
PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ESPECIALLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST. SEVERE
THREAT...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVERALL...WILL THEN DECREASE
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.
A SLOW COOLING/DRYING TREND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TUESDAY-THURSDAY...
AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRAVERSE THE SLOW MOVING LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
QPF DURING THE TRANSITION...MAINLY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY SPREADS INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY IN TIME FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY...
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SUNDAY LOOKS
WARMER AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS INTO THE MIDWEST...THOUGH WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOO.
TEMPERATURE WISE...BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH 850 MB TEMPS +20 TO +22 C. HAVE AGAIN GONE
ABOVE MOS NUMBERS FOR MAXES...BASED ON 925/950 MB THERMAL FIELDS AND
LOCAL CLIMO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUD COVER REMAIN THE WILD
CARDS WITH HIGH TEMPS...THOUGH LOW 90S SHOULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHERE SUFFICIENT SUN/HEATING OCCUR.
TEMPS THEN FALL OFF INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE LATER IN THE WEEK...
WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING LAKE SHORE AREAS IN THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* BRIEF DURATION MVFR CIG STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MORNING.
* LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS EVENING... BETTER CHANCE OVERNIGHT.
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOWER CIGS HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN SCT AND BKN AT MANY LOCATIONS
BUT FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST CIGS ARE MORE BKN
TO OVC AND OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH BKN PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. IFR CIGS APPEAR TO BE CONFINED FROM DPA/ARR AND POINTS TO
THE WEST AND THESE SHOULD LIFT TO LOW MVFR IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
MVFR CIGS WILL THEN LIFT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AND MAY SCATTER
OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AREA OF TSRA OVER NORTHWEST IOWA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO A BIT MORE STABLE AIR BUT
TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL TSRA ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI AND MAY MOVE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING OR MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT...WHICH
IS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY BUT THE BEST CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL INCREASE SOME THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPPER TEEN KNOT RANGE THROUGH SUNSET. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* MONDAY NIGHT...EVENING TSRA WITH STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
307 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO MONDAY REACHING JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTERLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE TODAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TONIGHT WHILE THE DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN MORE
PATCHY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
918 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
352 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
MAINLY LATER TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXIST. VERY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
GRADUAL COOLING/DRYING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY
AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE 4TH OF JULY FRIDAY...THEN
WARMING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGAIN LATER
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE THREAT
OF RAIN QUICKLY SHIFTING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. WEAK HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME CAP IS LIKELY TO BE
PRESENT AS INDICATED IN SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...WRF AND RAP SUGGEST
WEAKER CAPPING. SUSPECT A COUPLE OF MCVS ARE PRESENT UPSTREAM WITH
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST IA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD AID IN LOCALLY
WEAKENING CAP AND PRODUCING SOME FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM ABOUT 3 PM INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING STORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO A SEVERE MCS WHICH WOULD THEN SPREAD EAST INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL TIMING AFTER DARK
WOULD SUGGEST WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE FARTHER EAST
TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS EXPANDED THEIR DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MOST OF THE IL PORTION OF OUR CWA...WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT EXTENDING INTO WESTERN IL. DECAYING REMAINS OF OVERNIGHT
MCS SHOULD WORK TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THE COMBINATION OF A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
APPEARS FAIRLY HIGH FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY
2 OUTLOOK PLACES ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED
PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ESPECIALLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST. SEVERE
THREAT...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVERALL...WILL THEN DECREASE
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.
A SLOW COOLING/DRYING TREND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TUESDAY-THURSDAY...
AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRAVERSE THE SLOW MOVING LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
QPF DURING THE TRANSITION...MAINLY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY SPREADS INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY IN TIME FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY...
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SUNDAY LOOKS
WARMER AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS INTO THE MIDWEST...THOUGH WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOO.
TEMPERATURE WISE...BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH 850 MB TEMPS +20 TO +22 C. HAVE AGAIN GONE
ABOVE MOS NUMBERS FOR MAXES...BASED ON 925/950 MB THERMAL FIELDS AND
LOCAL CLIMO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUD COVER REMAIN THE WILD
CARDS WITH HIGH TEMPS...THOUGH LOW 90S SHOULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHERE SUFFICIENT SUN/HEATING OCCUR.
TEMPS THEN FALL OFF INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE LATER IN THE WEEK...
WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING LAKE SHORE AREAS IN THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* AREAL COVERAGE OF MVFR CIGS SLOWLY SHRINKING THIS MORNING.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MORNING.
* LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS EVENING... BETTER CHANCE OVERNIGHT.
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOWER CIGS HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN SCT AND BKN AT MANY LOCATIONS
BUT FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST CIGS ARE MORE BKN
TO OVC AND OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH BKN PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. IFR CIGS APPEAR TO BE CONFINED FROM DPA/ARR AND POINTS TO
THE WEST AND THESE SHOULD LIFT TO LOW MVFR IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
MVFR CIGS WILL THEN LIFT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AND MAY SCATTER
OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AREA OF TSRA OVER NORTHWEST IOWA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO A BIT MORE STABLE AIR BUT
TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL TSRA ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI AND MAY MOVE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING OR MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT...WHICH
IS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY BUT THE BEST CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL INCREASE SOME THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPPER TEEN KNOT RANGE THROUGH SUNSET. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* MONDAY NIGHT...EVENING TSRA WITH STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
307 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO MONDAY REACHING JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTERLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE TODAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TONIGHT WHILE THE DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN MORE
PATCHY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
642 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
352 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
MAINLY LATER TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXIST. VERY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
GRADUAL COOLING/DRYING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY
AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE 4TH OF JULY FRIDAY...THEN
WARMING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGAIN LATER
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE THREAT
OF RAIN QUICKLY SHIFTING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. WEAK HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME CAP IS LIKELY TO BE
PRESENT AS INDICATED IN SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...WRF AND RAP SUGGEST
WEAKER CAPPING. SUSPECT A COUPLE OF MCVS ARE PRESENT UPSTREAM WITH
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST IA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD AID IN LOCALLY
WEAKENING CAP AND PRODUCING SOME FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM ABOUT 3 PM INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING STORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO A SEVERE MCS WHICH WOULD THEN SPREAD EAST INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL TIMING AFTER DARK
WOULD SUGGEST WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE FARTHER EAST
TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS EXPANDED THEIR DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MOST OF THE IL PORTION OF OUR CWA...WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT EXTENDING INTO WESTERN IL. DECAYING REMAINS OF OVERNIGHT
MCS SHOULD WORK TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THE COMBINATION OF A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
APPEARS FAIRLY HIGH FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY
2 OUTLOOK PLACES ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED
PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ESPECIALLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST. SEVERE
THREAT...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVERALL...WILL THEN DECREASE
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.
A SLOW COOLING/DRYING TREND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TUESDAY-THURSDAY...
AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRAVERSE THE SLOW MOVING LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
QPF DURING THE TRANSITION...MAINLY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY SPREADS INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY IN TIME FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY...
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SUNDAY LOOKS
WARMER AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS INTO THE MIDWEST...THOUGH WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOO.
TEMPERATURE WISE...BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH 850 MB TEMPS +20 TO +22 C. HAVE AGAIN GONE
ABOVE MOS NUMBERS FOR MAXES...BASED ON 925/950 MB THERMAL FIELDS AND
LOCAL CLIMO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUD COVER REMAIN THE WILD
CARDS WITH HIGH TEMPS...THOUGH LOW 90S SHOULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHERE SUFFICIENT SUN/HEATING OCCUR.
TEMPS THEN FALL OFF INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE LATER IN THE WEEK...
WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING LAKE SHORE AREAS IN THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
* CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOWER CIGS HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN SCT AND BKN AT MANY LOCATIONS
BUT FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST CIGS ARE MORE BKN
TO OVC AND OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH BKN PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. IFR CIGS APPEAR TO BE CONFINED FROM DPA/ARR AND POINTS TO
THE WEST AND THESE SHOULD LIFT TO LOW MVFR IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
MVFR CIGS WILL THEN LIFT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AND MAY SCATTER
OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AREA OF TSRA OVER NORTHWEST IOWA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO A BIT MORE STABLE AIR BUT
TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL TSRA ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI AND MAY MOVE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING OR MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT...WHICH
IS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY BUT THE BEST CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL INCREASE SOME THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPPER TEEN KNOT RANGE THROUGH SUNSET. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* MONDAY NIGHT...EVENING TSRA WITH STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
307 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO MONDAY REACHING JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTERLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE TODAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TONIGHT WHILE THE DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN MORE
PATCHY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
411 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
352 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
MAINLY LATER TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXIST. VERY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
GRADUAL COOLING/DRYING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY
AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE 4TH OF JULY FRIDAY...THEN
WARMING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGAIN LATER
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE THREAT
OF RAIN QUICKLY SHIFTING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. WEAK HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME CAP IS LIKELY TO BE
PRESENT AS INDICATED IN SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...WRF AND RAP SUGGEST
WEAKER CAPPING. SUSPECT A COUPLE OF MCVS ARE PRESENT UPSTREAM WITH
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST IA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD AID IN LOCALLY
WEAKENING CAP AND PRODUCING SOME FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM ABOUT 3 PM INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING STORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO A SEVERE MCS WHICH WOULD THEN SPREAD EAST INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL TIMING AFTER DARK
WOULD SUGGEST WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE FARTHER EAST
TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS EXPANDED THEIR DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MOST OF THE IL PORTION OF OUR CWA...WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT EXTENDING INTO WESTERN IL. DECAYING REMAINS OF OVERNIGHT
MCS SHOULD WORK TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THE COMBINATION OF A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
APPEARS FAIRLY HIGH FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY
2 OUTLOOK PLACES ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED
PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ESPECIALLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST. SEVERE
THREAT...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVERALL...WILL THEN DECREASE
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.
A SLOW COOLING/DRYING TREND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TUESDAY-THURSDAY...
AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRAVERSE THE SLOW MOVING LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
QPF DURING THE TRANSITION...MAINLY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY SPREADS INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY IN TIME FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY...
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SUNDAY LOOKS
WARMER AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS INTO THE MIDWEST...THOUGH WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOO.
TEMPERATURE WISE...BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH 850 MB TEMPS +20 TO +22 C. HAVE AGAIN GONE
ABOVE MOS NUMBERS FOR MAXES...BASED ON 925/950 MB THERMAL FIELDS AND
LOCAL CLIMO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUD COVER REMAIN THE WILD
CARDS WITH HIGH TEMPS...THOUGH LOW 90S SHOULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHERE SUFFICIENT SUN/HEATING OCCUR.
TEMPS THEN FALL OFF INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE LATER IN THE WEEK...
WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING LAKE SHORE AREAS IN THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 10Z-11Z.
* MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING...POSSIBLE IFR CIGS.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
* CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 09Z...
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CHICAGO TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE BUT
STILL AN OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKE AS WELL AS SOME IN
CLOUD LIGHTNING THUS MAINTAINED VCTS FROM AN EARLIER AMENDMENT.
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE LINE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL THEN SETTLE BACK TO
SOUTHWEST.
SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS LINE WITH LOW MVFR CIGS
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN. LARGE AREA OF LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN IL BACK INTO EASTERN IOWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING SPECIFIC CIG HEIGHTS BUT EXPECT LOW MVFR CIGS...1-2KFT...
TO SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE TERMINALS AN HOUR OR SO AFTER PRECIP
ENDS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR
WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT RFD. CMS
PREVIOUS 06Z DISCUSSION...
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA STEADILY MOVING EAST WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
FROM PIA TO AAA. WHILE SOME DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO
SUNRISE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION...SHOULD SEE THUNDER AT
DPA/RFD WITH AT LEAST SHRA AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL FURTHER EAST. IN
ADDITION...STRONGER CELLS NEAR THE QUAD CITIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCING
A WESTERLY OUTFLOW WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE. ONCE
THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS AND/OR DISSIPATES
LATER THIS MORNING...BULK OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS APPEAR TO BE DRY
WITH LITTLE TO FOCUS NEW SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT BUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA OR TSRA WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. A BIT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA ARRIVES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING
TIMING/COVERAGE IS LOW.
CIGS ARE QUITE VARIABLE BEHIND THE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR AND
PATCHY IFR. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...EXPECT RAIN TO ALLOW
MVFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW LOW THEY WILL
BECOME OR IF CIGS WILL DEVELOP. THOUGH CIGS COULD BE IN THE IFR
RANGE AT RFD...SHOULD THEY OCCUR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND
THE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA AND THEN BEGIN TO GUST LATER THIS MORNING...
INTO THE MID/UPPER TEEN KT RANGE. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND GUSTS
DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH FOR SHRA/TSRA ENDING 10Z-11Z.
* MEDIUM FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...LOW FOR IFR CIGS.
* HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF TSRA LATE.
* MONDAY...TSRA LIKELY.
* TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
307 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO MONDAY REACHING JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTERLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE TODAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TONIGHT WHILE THE DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN MORE
PATCHY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
353 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
352 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
MAINLY LATER TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXIST. VERY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
GRADUAL COOLING/DRYING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY
AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE 4TH OF JULY FRIDAY...THEN
WARMING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGAIN LATER
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE THREAT
OF RAIN QUICKLY SHIFTING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. WEAK HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME CAP IS LIKELY TO BE
PRESENT AS INDICATED IN SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...WRF AND RAP SUGGEST
WEAKER CAPPING. SUSPECT A COUPLE OF MCVS ARE PRESENT UPSTREAM WITH
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST IA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD AID IN LOCALLY
WEAKENING CAP AND PRODUCING SOME FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM ABOUT 3 PM INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING STORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO A SEVERE MCS WHICH WOULD THEN SPREAD EAST INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL TIMING AFTER DARK
WOULD SUGGEST WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE FARTHER EAST
TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS EXPANDED THEIR DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MOST OF THE IL PORTION OF OUR CWA...WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT EXTENDING INTO WESTERN IL. DECAYING REMAINS OF OVERNIGHT
MCS SHOULD WORK TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THE COMBINATION OF A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
APPEARS FAIRLY HIGH FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY
2 OUTLOOK PLACES ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED
PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ESPECIALLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST. SEVERE
THREAT...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVERALL...WILL THEN DECREASE
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.
A SLOW COOLING/DRYING TREND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TUESDAY-THURSDAY...
AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRAVERSE THE SLOW MOVING LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
QPF DURING THE TRANSITION...MAINLY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY SPREADS INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY IN TIME FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY...
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SUNDAY LOOKS
WARMER AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS INTO THE MIDWEST...THOUGH WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOO.
TEMPERATURE WISE...BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH 850 MB TEMPS +20 TO +22 C. HAVE AGAIN GONE
ABOVE MOS NUMBERS FOR MAXES...BASED ON 925/950 MB THERMAL FIELDS AND
LOCAL CLIMO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUD COVER REMAIN THE WILD
CARDS WITH HIGH TEMPS...THOUGH LOW 90S SHOULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHERE SUFFICIENT SUN/HEATING OCCUR.
TEMPS THEN FALL OFF INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE LATER IN THE WEEK...
WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING LAKE SHORE AREAS IN THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SHRA...POSSIBLE TSRA...09Z-13Z.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
* CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA STEADILY MOVING EAST WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
FROM PIA TO AAA. WHILE SOME DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO
SUNRISE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION...SHOULD SEE THUNDER AT
DPA/RFD WITH AT LEAST SHRA AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL FURTHER EAST. IN
ADDITION...STRONGER CELLS NEAR THE QUAD CITIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCING
A WESTERLY OUTFLOW WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE. ONCE
THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS AND/OR DISSIPATES
LATER THIS MORNING...BULK OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS APPEAR TO BE DRY
WITH LITTLE TO FOCUS NEW SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT BUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA OR TSRA WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. A BIT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA ARRIVES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING
TIMING/COVERAGE IS LOW.
CIGS ARE QUITE VARIABLE BEHIND THE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR AND
PATCHY IFR. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...EXPECT RAIN TO ALLOW
MVFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW LOW THEY WILL
BECOME OR IF CIGS WILL DEVELOP. THOUGH CIGS COULD BE IN THE IFR
RANGE AT RFD...SHOULD THEY OCCUR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND
THE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA AND THEN BEGIN TO GUST LATER THIS MORNING...
INTO THE MID/UPPER TEEN KT RANGE. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND GUSTS
DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH FOR SHRA...LOW FOR TSRA...09Z-13Z.
* MEDIUM FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
* HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF TSRA LATE.
* MONDAY...TSRA LIKELY.
* TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
307 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO MONDAY REACHING JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTERLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE TODAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TONIGHT WHILE THE DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN MORE
PATCHY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1021 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THE RECENT ACTIVE PATTERN. HOWEVER...LARGE
DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE LAST HALF
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
ONE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH FAR NORTHWEST
INDIANA...WHILE A SECOND INTENSIFYING CLUSTER EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS BACK INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS
TO BE TIED TO THIS SECOND CLUSTER. MODELS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT SAGS INTO INDIANA AFTER
010600Z...SO THINK THIS SECOND CLUSTER HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS
EVENING/S SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STILL A LITTLE ON WEAK SIDE. SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM MODELS NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION VERY WELL...SO
NOT SURE HOW FAR INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS CLUSTER WILL GET
OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...COMBINED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...THIS CLUSTER MAY END UP
LASTING WELL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL EXPAND THE
LIKELY POPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST AFTER 010600Z...AND INCREASE THEM
ELSEWHERE.
HIGH WINDS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY AS DEEP SHEAR INCREASES...ALONG WITH A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AIRMASS IS RECOVERING RELATIVELY QUICKLY FROM MORNING CONVECTION
THAT HAS ONLY JUST CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AMPLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
REMAINS IN PLACE AND AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT LAID OUT FROM NW TO SE
FROM MAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN IOWA THROUGH ILLINOIS AND INTO
INDIANA. MODELS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT DAYS...ARE
STRUGGLING AND HAVE PRESENTED SOME DIFFERING OPINIONS AS TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MCS. 4KM SPC WRF SHOWS INITIAL COMPLEX MOVING
GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN
INDIANA...WHILE SECONDARY COMPLEX FORMS ON SOUTHERN FLANK AND
FOLLOWS INSTABILITY GRADIENT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH.
FOR NOW...EXPECT A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION WITH A TREND
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT FOR THE MAIN COMPLEX AS
COLD POOL ESTABLISHES...PUTTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MCS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 03-05Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS
THERE WITH LESSER POPS AS ONE MOVES SOUTHEAST.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AMPLE TO SUSTAIN THE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT AND
THUS SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST MOST OF THE NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE NUMBER ONE THREAT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT BUT A
LESSER ONE WITH FREEZING LEVELS APPROACHING 15KFT. THIS DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO
INCHES...OR 150-170 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE AREA...WILL PRESENT
A CLEAR HYDROLOGIC THREAT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE REPEATED ROUNDS
OF RAIN RECEIVED ACROSS THE AREA IN RECENT WEEKS...ALTHOUGH
RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTIONS WILL MITIGATE THAT SOMEWHAT.
MIN TEMPS SHOULD END UP NEAR OR JUST ABOVE PERSISTENCE PER LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
WEAKENING COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY STILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT TRAILING IT. MAY SEE STORMS REDEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL EVEN HAVE TO CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT.
SHOULD BE DRY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...K INDICES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT THUNDER
APPEARS UNLIKELY AND WILL ONLY CARRY SHOWERS. REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.
MOS BLEND NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPERATURES BASED ON 850
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION CAN BE
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE LONG TERM. A WARM FRONT AND WEAK UPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF.
00Z ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN RAIN
WITH THE FRONT...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. 12Z GFS IS MUCH DRIER. HOWEVER
GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN BETWEEN. FOR NOW WILL GO DRY ON SUNDAY AND ONLY
LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES IN.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
0220Z UPDATE...STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO EXACT THUNDERSTORM TIMING...IF
AT ALL...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MFVR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHERN INDIANA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THESE STORMS
WILL GET OVERNIGHT...BUT LATEST THINKING IS THIS WILL MAKE IT/S
WAY ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES...SO ATTEMPTED TO TIME SOME OF
THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER. RANGING FROM 05Z TO THE NORTH...TO 10Z TO
THE SOUTH.
WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG...BUT WILL HAVE
TO WATCH CLOSELY. COLD FRONT COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AFTER
12Z TUESDAY SO WENT VCSH ALL SITES...THEN DRY BY THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JAS
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
934 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THE RECENT ACTIVE PATTERN. HOWEVER...LARGE
DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE LAST HALF
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
ONE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH FAR NORTHWEST
INDIANA...WHILE A SECOND INTENSIFYING CLUSTER EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS BACK INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS
TO BE TIED TO THIS SECOND CLUSTER. MODELS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT SAGS INTO INDIANA AFTER
010600Z...SO THINK THIS SECOND CLUSTER HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS
EVENING/S SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STILL A LITTLE ON WEAK SIDE. SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM MODELS NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION VERY WELL...SO
NOT SURE HOW FAR INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS CLUSTER WILL GET
OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...COMBINED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...THIS CLUSTER MAY END UP
LASTING WELL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL EXPAND THE
LIKELY POPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST AFTER 010600Z...AND INCREASE THEM
ELSEWHERE.
HIGH WINDS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY AS DEEP SHEAR INCREASES...ALONG WITH A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AIRMASS IS RECOVERING RELATIVELY QUICKLY FROM MORNING CONVECTION
THAT HAS ONLY JUST CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AMPLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
REMAINS IN PLACE AND AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT LAID OUT FROM NW TO SE
FROM MAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN IOWA THROUGH ILLINOIS AND INTO
INDIANA. MODELS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT DAYS...ARE
STRUGGLING AND HAVE PRESENTED SOME DIFFERING OPINIONS AS TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MCS. 4KM SPC WRF SHOWS INITIAL COMPLEX MOVING
GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN
INDIANA...WHILE SECONDARY COMPLEX FORMS ON SOUTHERN FLANK AND
FOLLOWS INSTABILITY GRADIENT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH.
FOR NOW...EXPECT A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION WITH A TREND
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT FOR THE MAIN COMPLEX AS
COLD POOL ESTABLISHES...PUTTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MCS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 03-05Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS
THERE WITH LESSER POPS AS ONE MOVES SOUTHEAST.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AMPLE TO SUSTAIN THE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT AND
THUS SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST MOST OF THE NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE NUMBER ONE THREAT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT BUT A
LESSER ONE WITH FREEZING LEVELS APPROACHING 15KFT. THIS DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO
INCHES...OR 150-170 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE AREA...WILL PRESENT
A CLEAR HYDROLOGIC THREAT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE REPEATED ROUNDS
OF RAIN RECEIVED ACROSS THE AREA IN RECENT WEEKS...ALTHOUGH
RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTIONS WILL MITIGATE THAT SOMEWHAT.
MIN TEMPS SHOULD END UP NEAR OR JUST ABOVE PERSISTENCE PER LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
WEAKENING COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY STILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT TRAILING IT. MAY SEE STORMS REDEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL EVEN HAVE TO CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT.
SHOULD BE DRY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...K INDICES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT THUNDER
APPEARS UNLIKELY AND WILL ONLY CARRY SHOWERS. REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.
MOS BLEND NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPERATURES BASED ON 850
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION CAN BE
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE LONG TERM. A WARM FRONT AND WEAK UPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF.
00Z ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN RAIN
WITH THE FRONT...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. 12Z GFS IS MUCH DRIER. HOWEVER
GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN BETWEEN. FOR NOW WILL GO DRY ON SUNDAY AND ONLY
LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES IN.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 644 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MFVR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHERN INDIANA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THESE STORMS
WILL GET OVERNIGHT...BUT LATEST THINKING IS THIS WILL MAKE IT/S
WAY ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES...SO ATTEMPTED TO TIME SOME OF
THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER. RANGING FROM 05Z TO THE NORTH...TO 10Z TO
THE SOUTH.
WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG...BUT WILL HAVE
TO WATCH CLOSELY. COLD FRONT COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AFTER
12Z TUESDAY SO WENT VCSH ALL SITES...THEN DRY BY THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JAS
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
708 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THE RECENT ACTIVE PATTERN. HOWEVER...LARGE
DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING
A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE LAST HALF
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
AIRMASS IS RECOVERING RELATIVELY QUICKLY FROM MORNING CONVECTION
THAT HAS ONLY JUST CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AMPLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
REMAINS IN PLACE AND AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT LAID OUT FROM NW TO
SE FROM MAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN IOWA THROUGH ILLINOIS AND INTO
INDIANA. MODELS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT DAYS...ARE
STRUGGLING AND HAVE PRESENTED SOME DIFFERING OPINIONS AS TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MCS. 4KM SPC WRF SHOWS INITIAL COMPLEX MOVING
GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN
INDIANA...WHILE SECONDARY COMPLEX FORMS ON SOUTHERN FLANK AND
FOLLOWS INSTABILITY GRADIENT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH.
FOR NOW...EXPECT A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION WITH A TREND
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT FOR THE MAIN
COMPLEX AS COLD POOL ESTABLISHES...PUTTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE MCS IN THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 03-05Z. WILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS THERE WITH LESSER POPS AS ONE MOVES SOUTHEAST.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AMPLE TO SUSTAIN THE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT AND
THUS SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST MOST OF THE NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE NUMBER ONE THREAT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT BUT A
LESSER ONE WITH FREEZING LEVELS APPROACHING 15KFT. THIS DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO
INCHES...OR 150-170 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE AREA...WILL PRESENT
A CLEAR HYDROLOGIC THREAT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE REPEATED ROUNDS
OF RAIN RECEIVED ACROSS THE AREA IN RECENT WEEKS...ALTHOUGH
RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTIONS WILL MITIGATE THAT SOMEWHAT.
MIN TEMPS SHOULD END UP NEAR OR JUST ABOVE PERSISTENCE PER LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
WEAKENING COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY STILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT TRAILING IT. MAY SEE STORMS REDEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL EVEN HAVE TO CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT.
SHOULD BE DRY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...K INDICES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT THUNDER
APPEARS UNLIKELY AND WILL ONLY CARRY SHOWERS. REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.
MOS BLEND NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPERATURES BASED ON 850
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION CAN BE
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE LONG TERM. A WARM FRONT AND WEAK UPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF.
00Z ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN RAIN
WITH THE FRONT...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. 12Z GFS IS MUCH DRIER. HOWEVER
GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN BETWEEN. FOR NOW WILL GO DRY ON SUNDAY AND ONLY
LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES IN.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 644 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MFVR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHERN INDIANA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THESE STORMS
WILL GET OVERNIGHT...BUT LATEST THINKING IS THIS WILL MAKE IT/S
WAY ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES...SO ATTEMPTED TO TIME SOME OF
THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER. RANGING FROM 05Z TO THE NORTH...TO 10Z TO
THE SOUTH.
WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG...BUT WILL HAVE
TO WATCH CLOSELY. COLD FRONT COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AFTER
12Z TUESDAY SO WENT VCSH ALL SITES...THEN DRY BY THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
117 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
UPDATED TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPS A BIT MAINLY SE PORTION OF CWA.
ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS WIDESPREAD IN THIS AREA ATTM... TEMPS ALREADY
NEAR FCST HIGHS AND EXPECT CONTD DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE THIS AFTN. NO CHANGE TO EARLIER UPDATED POPS.
SCT SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG TROF OVER NW OH/SE MI/NE IN. AS
TROF MOVES EAST THIS AFTN SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HINDER FURTHER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE EXPECTED MODERATE INSTABILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE APPROACH OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MAKING PROGRESS EAST FROM SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED
MID LEVEL WAVE. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR ACTIVITY TO SHIFT MORE NE
THAN E AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH TIME. UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING SURFACE BASED
CAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES -3 TO -5 C. HRRR 00Z AND
02Z RUNS BOTH DEPICTED OVERALL SETUP QUITE WELL...DOWN TO ISOLATED
CONVECTION NW OF CHICAGO AND A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER LK MI. IF
FOLLOWING AT FACE VALUE THEN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE BUT
EVENTUALLY FALL APART TOWARDS MORNING AS MAIN ENERGY LIFTS NORTH.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...THESE SAME RUNS DO SHOW SOME WIDELY SCT TO
MAYBE SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 14Z AS LEFTOVERS AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ILLINOIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES THROUGH. SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH TROUGH QUICKLY EXITING BY 20Z WITH RAPID
DECREASE IN PRECIP AFTER THAT. PREVIOUS GRIDS ALREADY HAD MORNING
TREND IN PLACE AND NO REASON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES. ALSO...MID RANGE
CHC POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH AT MOST CHANGE TO SCT WORDING.
SOME CONCERN THAT LITTLE OVERALL PRECIP MAY OCCUR. CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE MID 80S.
TROUGH WILL NOT REALLY TAKE ANY OF THE LOW LEVEL MSTR WITH IT AS
DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S...YIELDING A MUGGY NIGHT
FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS AROUND 70. ON THE PLUS SIDE...DRY FORECAST
SHOULD EXIST WITH FORCING MECHANISMS TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE OPENING INTO A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS TROUGH WILL HELP DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY MID WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS IN THE BEGINNING PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A VERY WARM AND MOIST MONDAY IS ON TAP WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER AND EVEN MID 70S. PWAT VALUES
NEARING 2 INCHES AND CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2-3K J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES LESS THAN 7C/KM AND NO STRONG
TRIGGER NOTED. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND INDUCED VORTICITY
MAXIMA REMAIN POSSIBLE AND COULD EASILY IGNITE SCATTERED TSRA. THUS
LOW CHANCE POPS WARRANTED FOR MONDAY. LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BE BE
MOVING INTO UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. TIMING NOT IDEAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT EXPECT ORGANIZED
LINE OF STORMS UPSTREAM IN THE EVENING WITH A FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH CHANCE POP EAST INTO TUE
MORNING.
DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY FALL TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA. MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH REGION WEDNESDAY
AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION SO WILL HOLD
ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR THEN EXPECTED WED
NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. STAYED WITH ALLBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
PREDOMINANTLY SCT CU EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH TROF PASSAGE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH WK RIDGING
ALOFT IN ITS WAKE. MOIST LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW WILL CONT THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR STRATUS/BR DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1146 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
UPDATED TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPS A BIT MAINLY SE PORTION OF CWA.
ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS WIDESPREAD IN THIS AREA ATTM... TEMPS ALREADY
NEAR FCST HIGHS AND EXPECT CONTD DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE THIS AFTN. NO CHANGE TO EARLIER UPDATED POPS.
SCT SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG TROF OVER NW OH/SE MI/NE IN. AS
TROF MOVES EAST THIS AFTN SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HINDER FURTHER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE EXPECTED MODERATE INSTABILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE APPROACH OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MAKING PROGRESS EAST FROM SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED
MID LEVEL WAVE. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR ACTIVITY TO SHIFT MORE NE
THAN E AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH TIME. UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING SURFACE BASED
CAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES -3 TO -5 C. HRRR 00Z AND
02Z RUNS BOTH DEPICTED OVERALL SETUP QUITE WELL...DOWN TO ISOLATED
CONVECTION NW OF CHICAGO AND A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER LK MI. IF
FOLLOWING AT FACE VALUE THEN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE BUT
EVENTUALLY FALL APART TOWARDS MORNING AS MAIN ENERGY LIFTS NORTH.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...THESE SAME RUNS DO SHOW SOME WIDELY SCT TO
MAYBE SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 14Z AS LEFTOVERS AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ILLINOIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES THROUGH. SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH TROUGH QUICKLY EXITING BY 20Z WITH RAPID
DECREASE IN PRECIP AFTER THAT. PREVIOUS GRIDS ALREADY HAD MORNING
TREND IN PLACE AND NO REASON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES. ALSO...MID RANGE
CHC POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH AT MOST CHANGE TO SCT WORDING.
SOME CONCERN THAT LITTLE OVERALL PRECIP MAY OCCUR. CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE MID 80S.
TROUGH WILL NOT REALLY TAKE ANY OF THE LOW LEVEL MSTR WITH IT AS
DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S...YIELDING A MUGGY NIGHT
FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS AROUND 70. ON THE PLUS SIDE...DRY FORECAST
SHOULD EXIST WITH FORCING MECHANISMS TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE OPENING INTO A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS TROUGH WILL HELP DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY MID WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS IN THE BEGINNING PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A VERY WARM AND MOIST MONDAY IS ON TAP WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER AND EVEN MID 70S. PWAT VALUES
NEARING 2 INCHES AND CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2-3K J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES LESS THAN 7C/KM AND NO STRONG
TRIGGER NOTED. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND INDUCED VORTICITY
MAXIMA REMAIN POSSIBLE AND COULD EASILY IGNITE SCATTERED TSRA. THUS
LOW CHANCE POPS WARRANTED FOR MONDAY. LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BE BE
MOVING INTO UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. TIMING NOT IDEAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT EXPECT ORGANIZED
LINE OF STORMS UPSTREAM IN THE EVENING WITH A FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH CHANCE POP EAST INTO TUE
MORNING.
DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY FALL TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA. MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH REGION WEDNESDAY
AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION SO WILL HOLD
ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR THEN EXPECTED WED
NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. STAYED WITH ALLBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
BAND OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH WKNG UPR LEVEL TROF MOVG INTO THE
AREA LIFTING NE AND BYPASSING NRN INDIANA TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS
MORNING. POTENTIAL WITH DIURNAL HEATING FOR SOME SHRA/TS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE THIS AFTN BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF SBN BY
THAT TIME AND PSBLY EAST OF FWA BUT IN EITHER CASE CONFIDENCE ON
TSRA IMPACTING TERMINALS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS. OTRWS
STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF/MIX OUT BY AFTN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
MOIST LOW LEVELS SHOULD LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WITH MVFR CIGS AGAIN
TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION MAINLY THIS MORNING. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE BACK IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. REGIONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S TODAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 20145
UPDATED TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AS BULK OF SHOWERS
BYPASSING OUR CWA TO THE NW. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROF AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...
BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING NW THIS MORNING SO BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE NE... AND EVEN THERE ITS
DOUBTFUL AS UPR TROF WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE APPROACH OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MAKING PROGRESS EAST FROM SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED
MID LEVEL WAVE. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR ACTIVITY TO SHIFT MORE NE
THAN E AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH TIME. UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING SURFACE BASED
CAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES -3 TO -5 C. HRRR 00Z AND
02Z RUNS BOTH DEPICTED OVERALL SETUP QUITE WELL...DOWN TO ISOLATED
CONVECTION NW OF CHICAGO AND A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER LK MI. IF
FOLLOWING AT FACE VALUE THEN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE BUT
EVENTUALLY FALL APART TOWARDS MORNING AS MAIN ENERGY LIFTS NORTH.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...THESE SAME RUNS DO SHOW SOME WIDELY SCT TO
MAYBE SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 14Z AS LEFTOVERS AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ILLINOIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES THROUGH. SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH TROUGH QUICKLY EXITING BY 20Z WITH RAPID
DECREASE IN PRECIP AFTER THAT. PREVIOUS GRIDS ALREADY HAD MORNING
TREND IN PLACE AND NO REASON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES. ALSO...MID RANGE
CHC POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH AT MOST CHANGE TO SCT WORDING.
SOME CONCERN THAT LITTLE OVERALL PRECIP MAY OCCUR. CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE MID 80S.
TROUGH WILL NOT REALLY TAKE ANY OF THE LOW LEVEL MSTR WITH IT AS
DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S...YIELDING A MUGGY NIGHT
FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS AROUND 70. ON THE PLUS SIDE...DRY FORECAST
SHOULD EXIST WITH FORCING MECHANISMS TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE OPENING INTO A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS TROUGH WILL HELP DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY MID WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS IN THE BEGINNING PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A VERY WARM AND MOIST MONDAY IS ON TAP WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER AND EVEN MID 70S. PWAT VALUES
NEARING 2 INCHES AND CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2-3K J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES LESS THAN 7C/KM AND NO STRONG
TRIGGER NOTED. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND INDUCED VORTICITY
MAXIMA REMAIN POSSIBLE AND COULD EASILY IGNITE SCATTERED TSRA. THUS
LOW CHANCE POPS WARRANTED FOR MONDAY. LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BE BE
MOVING INTO UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. TIMING NOT IDEAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT EXPECT ORGANIZED
LINE OF STORMS UPSTREAM IN THE EVENING WITH A FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH CHANCE POP EAST INTO TUE
MORNING.
DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY FALL TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA. MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH REGION WEDNESDAY
AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION SO WILL HOLD
ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR THEN EXPECTED WED
NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. STAYED WITH ALLBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
BAND OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH WKNG UPR LEVEL TROF MOVG INTO THE
AREA LIFTING NE AND BYPASSING NRN INDIANA TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS
MORNING. POTENTIAL WITH DIURNAL HEATING FOR SOME SHRA/TS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE THIS AFTN BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF SBN BY
THAT TIME AND PSBLY EAST OF FWA BUT IN EITHER CASE CONFIDENCE ON
TSRA IMPACTING TERMINALS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS. OTRWS
STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF/MIX OUT BY AFTN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
MOIST LOW LEVELS SHOULD LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WITH MVFR CIGS AGAIN
TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
357 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION MAINLY THIS MORNING. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE BACK IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. REGIONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S TODAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE APPROACH OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MAKING PROGRESS EAST FROM SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED
MID LEVEL WAVE. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR ACTIVITY TO SHIFT MORE NE
THAN E AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH TIME. UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING SURFACE BASED
CAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES -3 TO -5 C. HRRR 00Z AND
02Z RUNS BOTH DEPICTED OVERALL SETUP QUITE WELL...DOWN TO ISOLATED
CONVECTION NW OF CHICAGO AND A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER LK MI. IF
FOLLOWING AT FACE VALUE THEN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE BUT
EVENTUALLY FALL APART TOWARDS MORNING AS MAIN ENERGY LIFTS NORTH.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...THESE SAME RUNS DO SHOW SOME WIDELY SCT TO
MAYBE SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 14Z AS LEFTOVERS AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ILLINOIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES THROUGH. SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH TROUGH QUICKLY EXITING BY 20Z WITH RAPID
DECREASE IN PRECIP AFTER THAT. PREVIOUS GRIDS ALREADY HAD MORNING
TREND IN PLACE AND NO REASON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES. ALSO...MID RANGE
CHC POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH AT MOST CHANGE TO SCT WORDING.
SOME CONCERN THAT LITTLE OVERALL PRECIP MAY OCCUR. CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE MID 80S.
TROUGH WILL NOT REALLY TAKE ANY OF THE LOW LEVEL MSTR WITH IT AS
DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S...YIELDING A MUGGY NIGHT
FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS AROUND 70. ON THE PLUS SIDE...DRY FORECAST
SHOULD EXIST WITH FORCING MECHANISMS TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE OPENING INTO A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS TROUGH WILL HELP DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY MID WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS IN THE BEGINNING PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A VERY WARM AND MOIST MONDAY IS ON TAP WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER AND EVEN MID 70S. PWAT VALUES
NEARING 2 INCHES AND CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2-3K J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES LESS THAN 7C/KM AND NO STRONG
TRIGGER NOTED. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND INDUCED VORTICITY
MAXIMA REMAIN POSSIBLE AND COULD EASILY IGNITE SCATTERED TSRA. THUS
LOW CHANCE POPS WARRANTED FOR MONDAY. LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BE BE
MOVING INTO UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. TIMING NOT IDEAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT EXPECT ORGANIZED
LINE OF STORMS UPSTREAM IN THE EVENING WITH A FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH CHANCE POP EAST INTO TUE
MORNING.
DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY FALL TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA. MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH REGION WEDNESDAY
AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION SO WILL HOLD
ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR THEN EXPECTED WED
NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. STAYED WITH ALLBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
NO CHANGES TO 00Z TAFS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
IN THE 11Z THROUGH 20Z TIME FRAME AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN
ILLINOIS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO 12Z WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR REDEVELOPMENT AS HEATING COMMENCES SUN MORNING. HOWEVER...MANY
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST AT BEST SCT COVERAGE WITH IMPACTS
TO TAF SITES POSSIBLY NIL OR SO BRIEF THAT INCLUSION IN TAF WOULD
BE OF LIMITED IF ANY BENEFIT. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT A DRY FORECAST
AND WILL REVISIT FOR 12Z ISSUANCE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
625 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
...Updated the aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
RAP and NAM verified well with the 18z surface analysis with the
surface cold front across southwest Kansas. A surface
trough/dry line extended south of this cold front into the
panhandle of Oklahoma and Texas. Warm air was located above these
surface boundaries with the RAP still suggesting a 700mb
temperature of greater than +16c lingers across southwest Kansas.
Given these warm temperatures any convection does develop along
these two boundaries am expecting this will occur after 23z.
Scattered convection is expected to develop along the cold front
late today. 0-6km shear is forecast to be 30 to 35 knots and the
CAPE values are expected to exceed 3500 j/kg at 00z Tuesday. Given
the instability and shear early this evening any storm that does
develop may become severe with the main hazard begin strong
damaging winds and golf ball size hail.
Thunderstorms will become more widespread across southwest and
south central Kansas early tonight. The latest RAP, NAM, and GFS
remain in good agreement keeping an area of moisture and improving
850mb-700mb frontogenesis over southwest Kansas after 00z Tuesday
as an upper level trough moves across Central High Plains.
Preciptable water values at 00z Tuesday were forecast to be at 1
to 1.5 inches. Given the forcing and moisture just north of the
cold front across southwest and south central Kansas early tonight
along with improving upper level dynamics front ahead of the upper
trough and near location of the right exit region of an upper
level jet will continue to favor thunderstorms increasing in areal
coverage between 00z Tuesday and 06z Tuesday with periods of heavy
rainfall being possible. At this time based on the location of
where the heavier rainfall is expected overnight will not be
issuing a flash flood watch but will mention flooding concerns in
the hazardous weather outlook.
Precipitation will taper off from northwest to southeast early
Tuesday as the upper level trough crosses western Kansas. 850mb
temperature trends from 00z Tuesday to 00z Wednesday suggests
highs mainly in the low to mid 80s. Given lingering afternoon
cloud cover near the Oklahoma border will trim temperatures down a
few degrees here from the later guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave dropping
southeast out of the Northern Rockies into the Western High Plains
early Wednesday then turning more eastward into the Central Plains
by Wednesday night. Meanwhile, upper level ridging will slowly
transition across the Intermountain West turning the flow aloft
more northwesterly across the Western High Plains toward the end
of the week. As the flow aloft weakens, precip chances will be
limited across much of central and western Kansas. However, a
near stationary frontal boundary just south of the Oklahoma border
may provide the focus for a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms
near and along the Oklahoma state line Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. The northwesterly flow aloft will persist through the
end of the week while the frontal boundary to our south extends
back north into eastern Colorado. As H5 vort maxima crest the
ridge and drop southeast off the Rockies, thunderstorm development
is likely lee of the front range each afternoon Thursday and
Friday. A few isolated thunderstorms could potentially drift into
western Kansas each evening.
Below normal temperatures are expected Wednesday as surface high
pressure moves southeast out of the Northern Plains into the Central
Plains of eastern Kansas. This will reinforce the slightly cooler
air mass in place across western Kansas with H85 temperatures
ranging from the upper teens(C) across central Kansas to the
lower 20s(C) closer to the Colorado border. Even with decreasing
cloud cover expected, look for highs struggling to reach the 80s(F)
across central and portions of southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon.
A gradual warming trend is then forecast through the weekend as
upper level ridging approaches from the west, pushing highs back
into the 90s(F) by Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
This evening will start out breezy with northeast winds averaging
15g25kts. Sct clouds will increase and the chance for
thunderstorms will significantly increase in the DDC and GCK areas
within the next 2 hours. Thunderstorm winds will be VRB20g30kt,
and the vsbys could go down into the MVFR range during the
convection. Cigs during storms should also be in the MVFR range,
around OVC040CB. A few storms may linger into the 06Z time frame,
but after that, expect northwest winds around 10 knots, and cigs
in the OVC050 range.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 82 60 84 / 60 30 10 10
GCK 62 82 59 81 / 30 20 10 10
EHA 62 78 59 79 / 70 30 20 10
LBL 64 80 61 82 / 80 30 20 10
HYS 62 84 59 80 / 20 20 0 0
P28 68 83 64 86 / 90 40 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1240 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
08Z water vapor imagery shows a closed low along the ND/Canadian
boarder with zonal flow from the central plains through the eastern
Pacific ocean. At the surface, a surface low was north of ND with a
trough of low pressure extending south through the Dakotas and into
the southern high plains. Obs indicate a very moist low level
airmass with dewpoints in the lower 70s is currently advecting
northwest into the central high plains. This moisture advection
along with convergence along the nose of the low level jet have
combined to produce elevated thunderstorms across western KS.
For today, the models show little in the way of synoptic scale
forcing upstream of the forecast area, and they keep the broad
surface trough of low pressure to the west of the area. This should
allow for the moist airmass to remain over the area and with daytime
heating, become very unstable by this afternoon. The RAP and NAM
show surface based CAPE values around 4000 J/kg developing as highs
warm to around 90. Additionally there is not much in the way of
inhibition to convection. So the concern is any little vort max
could set off robust convection today. The RAP and NAM want to bring
just such a vort max, generated from the elevated convection over
western KS, over northeast KS during peak heating. In addition to
the potential instability, deep layer shear should be stronger with
the zonal flow aloft increasing mid level winds. Models prog 0-6 km
shear could increase to around 50 KTS. So while forcing is not
all that great, the combination of shear and instability could be
more than enough for severe thunderstorms if the trigger comes along
and sets off convection. The main concerns with storms would be
large hail and torrential rainfall due to steep mid level lapse
rates and high PWs. 0-1 KM shear parameters appear to favor any
tornado potential just to the north of the forecast area until the
early evening when storms may have evolved into an MCS. However any
discrete storm that may interact with an outflow boundary and
locally backed winds could see an enhances tornado potential this
afternoon across northeast KS. Of course this is expecting the
elevated convection to the west to fall apart or dive southeast
this morning as the high res models have suggested. Because of this
there still remains some uncertainty in how storms will evolve
through the day. At this point, the forecast expects the convection
to the west to weaken before getting to deep into eastern KS as the
boundary layer mixes out and convergence along the low level jet
diminishes. Then storms may form over southeast NEB or northern KS
early this afternoon.
For tonight a moist and unstable airmass is anticipated to persist
through the night as the low level jet redevelops. So while storms
from the afternoon and early evening may eventually move east, it is
hard to rule out possible elevated convection forming during the
overnight. Convergence and instability look better across northern
KS and into NEB so this is where the forecast will hold onto some
chance POPs through the overnight. Temps will be warm overnight as a
muggy airmass hangs in across the area. Lows are forecast to be in
the lower and mid 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
Another day of conditional severe convection is expected on Monday
afternoon. The main exception would be the cold front providing a
more organized area of lift to initiate late afternoon/early evening
thunderstorms. On the other hand, a wrench in the forecast could be
in the mesoscale features of how Sunday evening`s storm complex
evolves across the area. Believe the latest NAM may be a bit too
fast pushing the line of convection east before midnight while
developing an additional storm complex over Nebraska, impacting
northeast KS by midday Monday. This would offer little or no time
for the atmosphere to recover. Otherwise the GFS and ECMWF have been
in more consistent agreement of seeing some decent clearing across
central and east central areas Monday morning/afternoon. Unusually
high moisture content present with dewpoint temps progged in the low
to mid 70s will create a sharp instability gradient. Portions of
northeast, east central and central KS may see surface CAPE values
in excess of 4000 J/KG while deep layer shear resides in the 40 to
50 kt range. If we can realize a dry period and clearing on Monday,
scattered strong to severe storms are possible along and ahead of
the front. Best timing would be during the late afternoon when a
strong capping inversion erodes.
Second story of note for Monday will be the heat and humidity.
Strong surface heating/mixing ahead of the boundary will contribute
to highs in the lower and middle 90s. Heat indices appear to be
much higher as strong moisture pooling in the 70s bring readings in
the 100 to 103 range. If we are able to mix slightly warmer
temperatures downward, we may be close to advisory criteria.
Main change to the forecast is with increasing precip chances
further north late Monday evening into Tuesday as operational
guidance is showing increasing similarities in a stout shortwave
trough rounding the base of the broad upper trough axis over Kansas.
In addition, decent frontogenesis in the 850-700 MB layer provides
an enhanced area of lift for showers developing over central Kansas,
tracking east into the CWA. Instability is limited with main
concerns being light to moderate rainfall. Dependent on the speed
and intensity of the showers, localized flooding is possible.
Locations south of Interstate 70 see the best possibility of the
this occurrence, based on the track of the upper trough. In addition
to the precip chances, high temps Tuesday behind the front were
lowered to near 80 degrees under mostly cloudy skies.
With ridging to our west and no apparent areas of upper forcing,
have opted to go dry Wednesday through late Friday evening.
Independence Day at this time is mostly dry and warm with an incoming
wave tracking east across the weakening ridge. The GFS is much
faster than the ECMWF so will keep slight chances across northern
areas late Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
Thunderstorms will begin to develop across the terminals late this
afternoon and continue through the early evening. KTOP and KFOE
will have the better chances for thunderstorms. The stronger
thunderstorms may bring brief MVFR or IFR conditions to the
terminals. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1213 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS FROM
EARLIER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS WANING AND
SHOULD DIMINISH BY MORNING. A NEW COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...NEAR AND ALONG I-70. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD WITH TIME THIS MORNING.
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
TODAY:
SHORT-TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE SHOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING SATURDAYS RUNS AND THE
LATEST HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE EXTENT OF THE
COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AND
SKIES TO CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME TEMPS MAY TAKE A HIT
FROM EARLY CLOUDS...BUT HAVE REMAINED ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO BE BETWEEN 100-105.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NEBRASKA
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
IMPACT MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS POSSIBLE...THE
BETTER CHANCES LIE ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. THESE
STORMS HAVE THE CHANCE TO BE SEVERE WITH 1500-3000 J/KG CAPE AND
30-40 KTS SHEAR.
MONDAY - TUESDAY:
THIS PERIOD ALSO LOOKS ACTIVE WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING A FRONT
THROUGH KANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD REACHING SOUTHERN KANSAS BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FIRST CONCERN ON MONDAY IS GOING TO BE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A JUICY AIRMASS. THIS
WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO BE BETWEEN 100-105 AGAIN. AVOID OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES DURING THE PEAK OF THE DAY IF POSSIBLE.
THE SECOND CONCERN MONDAY EVENING WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A
LATER START...POST 00Z FOR THIS ACTIVITY. THERE IS PLENTIFUL CAPE
AND SHEAR MEANING THAT THESE STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE CHANCES
TO BE SEVERE.
THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH TUESDAY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER WITH THE COMBINATION OF BEING NORTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS
THE CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH...MEANING KANSAS HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF A FEW DRY AND COOLER
DAYS FOR MID-LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE WIND FIELD TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN. WITH THE PLAINS
BEING IN SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE MAY HELP TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. DETAILS WILL BE BETTER DETERMINED AS THE
TIME PERIOD NEARS. OVERALL A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF THE
FORECAST.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
PROBABILITIES FOR DIRECT HITS ARE PROBABLY TOO LOW TO MENTION
THUNDER IN MOST TAF SITES. THE SIGNAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
EARLY MONDAY MORNING IS NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS...SO WILL
LEAVE OUT MENTION THIS FAR OUT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 89 73 96 68 / 40 20 20 70
HUTCHINSON 89 73 97 65 / 70 20 20 70
NEWTON 89 71 95 65 / 60 20 20 70
ELDORADO 89 72 93 66 / 40 20 20 70
WINFIELD-KWLD 92 73 94 68 / 20 20 20 70
RUSSELL 90 71 91 62 / 80 20 10 70
GREAT BEND 89 72 94 62 / 80 20 10 70
SALINA 91 74 96 65 / 60 20 10 60
MCPHERSON 89 72 96 65 / 70 20 20 70
COFFEYVILLE 90 74 92 70 / 20 20 20 50
CHANUTE 89 73 91 68 / 30 20 20 70
IOLA 89 73 91 68 / 30 20 20 70
PARSONS-KPPF 89 74 91 68 / 30 20 20 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
608 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
08Z water vapor imagery shows a closed low along the ND/Canadian
boarder with zonal flow from the central plains through the eastern
Pacific ocean. At the surface, a surface low was north of ND with a
trough of low pressure extending south through the Dakotas and into
the southern high plains. Obs indicate a very moist low level
airmass with dewpoints in the lower 70s is currently advecting
northwest into the central high plains. This moisture advection
along with convergence along the nose of the low level jet have
combined to produce elevated thunderstorms across western KS.
For today, the models show little in the way of synoptic scale
forcing upstream of the forecast area, and they keep the broad
surface trough of low pressure to the west of the area. This should
allow for the moist airmass to remain over the area and with daytime
heating, become very unstable by this afternoon. The RAP and NAM
show surface based CAPE values around 4000 J/kg developing as highs
warm to around 90. Additionally there is not much in the way of
inhibition to convection. So the concern is any little vort max
could set off robust convection today. The RAP and NAM want to bring
just such a vort max, generated from the elevated convection over
western KS, over northeast KS during peak heating. In addition to
the potential instability, deep layer shear should be stronger with
the zonal flow aloft increasing mid level winds. Models prog 0-6 km
shear could increase to around 50 KTS. So while forcing is not
all that great, the combination of shear and instability could be
more than enough for severe thunderstorms if the trigger comes along
and sets off convection. The main concerns with storms would be
large hail and torrential rainfall due to steep mid level lapse
rates and high PWs. 0-1 KM shear parameters appear to favor any
tornado potential just to the north of the forecast area until the
early evening when storms may have evolved into an MCS. However any
discrete storm that may interact with an outflow boundary and
locally backed winds could see an enhances tornado potential this
afternoon across northeast KS. Of course this is expecting the
elevated convection to the west to fall apart or dive southeast
this morning as the high res models have suggested. Because of this
there still remains some uncertainty in how storms will evolve
through the day. At this point, the forecast expects the convection
to the west to weaken before getting to deep into eastern KS as the
boundary layer mixes out and convergence along the low level jet
diminishes. Then storms may form over southeast NEB or northern KS
early this afternoon.
For tonight a moist and unstable airmass is anticipated to persist
through the night as the low level jet redevelops. So while storms
from the afternoon and early evening may eventually move east, it is
hard to rule out possible elevated convection forming during the
overnight. Convergence and instability look better across northern
KS and into NEB so this is where the forecast will hold onto some
chance POPs through the overnight. Temps will be warm overnight as a
muggy airmass hangs in across the area. Lows are forecast to be in
the lower and mid 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
Another day of conditional severe convection is expected on Monday
afternoon. The main exception would be the cold front providing a
more organized area of lift to initiate late afternoon/early evening
thunderstorms. On the other hand, a wrench in the forecast could be
in the mesoscale features of how Sunday evening`s storm complex
evolves across the area. Believe the latest NAM may be a bit too
fast pushing the line of convection east before midnight while
developing an additional storm complex over Nebraska, impacting
northeast KS by midday Monday. This would offer little or no time
for the atmosphere to recover. Otherwise the GFS and ECMWF have been
in more consistent agreement of seeing some decent clearing across
central and east central areas Monday morning/afternoon. Unusually
high moisture content present with dewpoint temps progged in the low
to mid 70s will create a sharp instability gradient. Portions of
northeast, east central and central KS may see surface CAPE values
in excess of 4000 J/KG while deep layer shear resides in the 40 to
50 kt range. If we can realize a dry period and clearing on Monday,
scattered strong to severe storms are possible along and ahead of
the front. Best timing would be during the late afternoon when a
strong capping inversion erodes.
Second story of note for Monday will be the heat and humidity.
Strong surface heating/mixing ahead of the boundary will contribute
to highs in the lower and middle 90s. Heat indices appear to be
much higher as strong moisture pooling in the 70s bring readings in
the 100 to 103 range. If we are able to mix slightly warmer
temperatures downward, we may be close to advisory criteria.
Main change to the forecast is with increasing precip chances
further north late Monday evening into Tuesday as operational
guidance is showing increasing similarities in a stout shortwave
trough rounding the base of the broad upper trough axis over Kansas.
In addition, decent frontogenesis in the 850-700 MB layer provides
an enhanced area of lift for showers developing over central Kansas,
tracking east into the CWA. Instability is limited with main
concerns being light to moderate rainfall. Dependent on the speed
and intensity of the showers, localized flooding is possible.
Locations south of Interstate 70 see the best possibility of the
this occurrence, based on the track of the upper trough. In addition
to the precip chances, high temps Tuesday behind the front were
lowered to near 80 degrees under mostly cloudy skies.
With ridging to our west and no apparent areas of upper forcing,
have opted to go dry Wednesday through late Friday evening.
Independence Day at this time is mostly dry and warm with an incoming
wave tracking east across the weakening ridge. The GFS is much
faster than the ECMWF so will keep slight chances across northern
areas late Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
There remains a fair amount of uncertainty in how TS will evolve
today since there is no dominant synoptic scale feature forcing
convection. At this time, the forecast goes along with the idea of
TS developing along the moisture gradient over southeast NEB and
moving into northern KS late this afternoon. However is convection
continues developing across western KS and southwestern NEB,
storms could move into the terminals earlier in the afternoon. If
storms enter the terminals, think IFR VSBY and at least MVFR CIGS
are likely due to expected heavy rainfall. TAFs will likely need
fine tuning as the day progresses.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
333 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
08Z water vapor imagery shows a closed low along the ND/Canadian
boarder with zonal flow from the central plains through the eastern
Pacific ocean. At the surface, a surface low was north of ND with a
trough of low pressure extending south through the Dakotas and into
the southern high plains. Obs indicate a very moist low level
airmass with dewpoints in the lower 70s is currently advecting
northwest into the central high plains. This moisture advection
along with convergence along the nose of the low level jet have
combined to produce elevated thunderstorms across western KS.
For today, the models show little in the way of synoptic scale
forcing upstream of the forecast area, and they keep the broad
surface trough of low pressure to the west of the area. This should
allow for the moist airmass to remain over the area and with daytime
heating, become very unstable by this afternoon. The RAP and NAM
show surface based CAPE values around 4000 J/kg developing as highs
warm to around 90. Additionally there is not much in the way of
inhibition to convection. So the concern is any little vort max
could set off robust convection today. The RAP and NAM want to bring
just such a vort max, generated from the elevated convection over
western KS, over northeast KS during peak heating. In addition to
the potential instability, deep layer shear should be stronger with
the zonal flow aloft increasing mid level winds. Models prog 0-6 km
shear could increase to around 50 KTS. So while forcing is not
all that great, the combination of shear and instability could be
more than enough for severe thunderstorms if the trigger comes along
and sets off convection. The main concerns with storms would be
large hail and torrential rainfall due to steep mid level lapse
rates and high PWs. 0-1 KM shear parameters appear to favor any
tornado potential just to the north of the forecast area until the
early evening when storms may have evolved into an MCS. However any
discrete storm that may interact with an outflow boundary and
locally backed winds could see an enhances tornado potential this
afternoon across northeast KS. Of course this is expecting the
elevated convection to the west to fall apart or dive southeast
this morning as the high res models have suggested. Because of this
there still remains some uncertainty in how storms will evolve
through the day. At this point, the forecast expects the convection
to the west to weaken before getting to deep into eastern KS as the
boundary layer mixes out and convergence along the low level jet
diminishes. Then storms may form over southeast NEB or northern KS
early this afternoon.
For tonight a moist and unstable airmass is anticipated to persist
through the night as the low level jet redevelops. So while storms
from the afternoon and early evening may eventually move east, it is
hard to rule out possible elevated convection forming during the
overnight. Convergence and instability look better across northern
KS and into NEB so this is where the forecast will hold onto some
chance POPs through the overnight. Temps will be warm overnight as a
muggy airmass hangs in across the area. Lows are forecast to be in
the lower and mid 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
Another day of conditional severe convection is expected on Monday
afternoon. The main exception would be the cold front providing a
more organized area of lift to initiate late afternoon/early evening
thunderstorms. On the other hand, a wrench in the forecast could be
in the mesoscale features of how Sunday evening`s storm complex
evolves across the area. Believe the latest NAM may be a bit too
fast pushing the line of convection east before midnight while
developing an additional storm complex over Nebraska, impacting
northeast KS by midday Monday. This would offer little or no time
for the atmosphere to recover. Otherwise the GFS and ECMWF have been
in more consistent agreement of seeing some decent clearing across
central and east central areas Monday morning/afternoon. Unusually
high moisture content present with dewpoint temps progged in the low
to mid 70s will create a sharp instability gradient. Portions of
northeast, east central and central KS may see surface CAPE values
in excess of 4000 J/KG while deep layer shear resides in the 40 to
50 kt range. If we can realize a dry period and clearing on Monday,
scattered strong to severe storms are possible along and ahead of
the front. Best timing would be during the late afternoon when a
strong capping inversion erodes.
Second story of note for Monday will be the heat and humidity.
Strong surface heating/mixing ahead of the boundary will contribute
to highs in the lower and middle 90s. Heat indicies appear to be
much higher as strong moisture pooling in the 70s bring readings in
the 100 to 103 range. If we are able to mix slightly warmer
temperatures downward, we may be close to advisory criteria.
Main change to the forecast is with increasing precip chances
further north late Monday evening into Tuesday as operational
guidance is showing increasing similarities in a stout shortwave
trough rounding the base of the broad upper trough axis over Kansas.
In addition, decent frontogenesis in the 850-700 mb layer provides
an enhanced area of lift for showers developing over central Kansas,
tracking east into the CWA. Instability is limited with main
concerns being light to moderate rainfall. Dependent on the speed
and intensity of the showers, localized flooding is possible.
Locations south of Interstate 70 see the best possibility of the
this occurrence, based on the track of the upper trough. In addition
to the precip chances, high temps Tuesday behind the front were
lowered to near 80 degrees under mostly cloudy skies.
With ridging to our west and no apparent areas of upper forcing,
have opted to go dry Wednesday through late Friday evening.
Independence Day at this time is mostly dry and warm with an incoming
wave tracking east across the weakening ridge. The GFS is much
faster than the ECMWF so will keep slight chances across northern
areas late Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014
Earlier fairly brief MVFR cigs and continued moistening lower
levels bring increased potential for limitations in the next
several hours. Expect most issues to come via cigs again. Heights
not obvious but low MVFR to near IFR seem the most likely. Will go
ahead with VCTS around 0Z given continued guidance agreement.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
300 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS FROM
EARLIER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS WANING AND
SHOULD DIMINISH BY MORNING. A NEW COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...NEAR AND ALONG I-70. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD WITH TIME THIS MORNING.
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
TODAY:
SHORT-TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE SHOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING SATURDAYS RUNS AND THE
LATEST HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE EXTENT OF THE
COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AND
SKIES TO CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME TEMPS MAY TAKE A HIT
FROM EARLY CLOUDS...BUT HAVE REMAINED ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO BE BETWEEN 100-105.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NEBRASKA
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
IMPACT MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS POSSIBLE...THE
BETTER CHANCES LIE ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. THESE
STORMS HAVE THE CHANCE TO BE SEVERE WITH 1500-3000 J/KG CAPE AND
30-40 KTS SHEAR.
MONDAY - TUESDAY:
THIS PERIOD ALSO LOOKS ACTIVE WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING A FRONT
THROUGH KANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD REACHING SOUTHERN KANSAS BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FIRST CONCERN ON MONDAY IS GOING TO BE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A JUICY AIRMASS. THIS
WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO BE BETWEEN 100-105 AGAIN. AVOID OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES DURING THE PEAK OF THE DAY IF POSSIBLE.
THE SECOND CONCERN MONDAY EVENING WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A
LATER START...POST 00Z FOR THIS ACTIVITY. THERE IS PLENTIFUL CAPE
AND SHEAR MEANING THAT THESE STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE CHANCES
TO BE SEVERE.
THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH TUESDAY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER WITH THE COMBINATION OF BEING NORTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS
THE CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH...MEANING KANSAS HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF A FEW DRY AND COOLER
DAYS FOR MID-LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE WIND FIELD TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN. WITH THE PLAINS
BEING IN SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE MAY HELP TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. DETAILS WILL BE BETTER DETERMINED AS THE
TIME PERIOD NEARS. OVERALL A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF THE
FORECAST.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST BY 06-08Z...AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ADVANCES EAST OF THE AREA. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES AND DIURNAL COOLING SETS IN AMIDST RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...THINKING AREAS OF LOW MVFR TO HIGH IFR
CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH EARLY TO MID-MORNING
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...STRENGTHENING 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
WEST/SOUTHWEST KS AROUND 09Z...POSSIBLY AFFECTING LOCATIONS
GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135 AFTER SUNRISE. INSERTED VCSH FOR NOW
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
UPGRADE TO VCTS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 91 73 96 68 / 40 20 20 70
HUTCHINSON 91 73 97 65 / 40 20 20 70
NEWTON 91 71 95 65 / 40 20 20 70
ELDORADO 90 72 93 66 / 40 20 20 70
WINFIELD-KWLD 92 73 94 68 / 30 20 20 70
RUSSELL 92 71 91 62 / 30 20 10 70
GREAT BEND 91 72 94 62 / 40 20 10 70
SALINA 93 74 96 65 / 40 20 10 60
MCPHERSON 92 72 96 65 / 40 20 20 70
COFFEYVILLE 90 74 92 70 / 20 20 20 50
CHANUTE 89 73 91 68 / 20 20 20 70
IOLA 89 73 91 68 / 20 20 20 70
PARSONS-KPPF 89 74 91 68 / 20 20 20 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
306 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
OUTFLOW FROM THE WESTERN TN MCS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS IGNITED
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND THESE CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST. STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING NE
AT ABOUT 14 TO 18 KNOTS THUS LIMITING THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THE
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM SO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING STILL REMAINS A THREAT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES. RADAR ESTIMATES OVER
1.5 INCHES IN WHITLEY COUNTY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT A DECREASE IN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER THE REMNANT MESOSCALE CIRCULATION FROM THE TN
MCS SHOULD MOVE OVER OUR AREA TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AFTER 03Z AND THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN 7H UVV. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS IDEA THAN THE NAM...BUT CONCEPTUALLY AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
LATER TONIGHT MAKES SENSE. IN FACT THE LATEST HRRR IS ALSO SHOWING A
DECREASE IN CONVECTION EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN AN UPTICK LATER
TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA IN THE GRIDS...AND NOT
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION CYCLE.
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WE EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH CONVECTION ENDING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD OF MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A RATHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE IS ON TAP FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...JUST IN TIME FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.
TO START THE PERIOD...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED...THIS SUBTLE FEATURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS OVERHEAD
AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER POPPING UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE.
BY WEDNESDAY...A SHARP TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WE SEEM TO BE MISSING TRIGGERS...SO CONVECTION MAY NOT BE
ALL THAT WIDESPREAD. BY THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH PROBABLY THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEK. DRY...MUCH COOLER...AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SURGE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
INDEPENDENCE DAY SETTING UP A BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
DOWN INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 40S. THIS WILL PROVIDE
COOL MORNINGS WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 50S. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE 80S EACH DAY...BUT THE LACK OF HUMIDITY WON`T MAKE IT FEEL QUITE
SO BAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SME
AND LOZ BEING IMPACTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND JKL AND SJS IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS
IMPACTING THE REGION INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BUT MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
124 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
WILL BE UPDATING NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1118 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
OUTFLOW FROM THE WESTERN TN MCS WILL SERVE AS FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS IN
THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING
ENE DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPDATED NDFD AND
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS REFLECT THIS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE SENT TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS SHORTLY AFTER 14Z.
UPDATE WILL PRIMARILY BE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SKY
COVER...TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY IS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS EAST KY OF 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES AT
12Z...WITH THE 12Z ILN AND OHX SOUNDINGS AT 1.58 AND 1.55 INCHES. AS
SUCH HEAVY RAINERS STILL A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM
MOTION MAY BE SLIGHTLY GREATER TODAY AT 11 TO 14 KNOTS BASED ON
MORNING SOUNDINGS. EVEN SO WITH CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY ALSO LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES EAST KY IN 5
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WIND. WILL ALSO BE UPDATING THE HWO
TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE THREATS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS AND MINIMIZE THE FOG FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER...T...AND TD GRIDS BASED ON TH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS WITH A NEW SET OF ZONES AND HWO TO FOLLOW BY 8 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST...NOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY LYING OVER EAST KENTUCKY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WELL AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW IS KEEPING A SUPPLY OF WARM AND HUMID
AIR ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. AS SUCH...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER IN MOST PLACES. ON RADAR...A LATE EVENING LULL IN ACTIVITY HAS
RETURNED TO EAST KENTUCKY AS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERNMOST
COUNTIES HAVE FADED OUT. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWERS IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...HEADING TOWARD THE CWA. ON SATELLITE...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BRIEFLY REDEVELOPED EARLIER BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH A NEW UPSURGE IS NOTED IN RECENT IMAGES. SO FAR THERE
HAS BEEN ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP THE FOG FROM SHOWING UP TOO THICK
IN THE AREA OBS AND WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS ARE AGAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THEY ALL TAKE THE DEEP AND BROAD CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS CIRCULATION WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY
RIPPLING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FLANK AND BRUSHING PAST KENTUCKY. THE
LEADING ONE OF THESE WILL PASS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER
HELPING TO FURTHER SUPPRESS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. ANOTHER MINOR WAVE
WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. HEIGHTS OVER KENTUCKY WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED INTO MONDAY EVENING EVEN THOUGH THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE TRIES TO EDGE BACK NORTH INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT...AND THE SMALL SCALE OF THE DETERMINATIVE
FEATURES...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS...AND THEN INCREASINGLY
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY AND PEAKING IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO DAYS ANY STORM
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH PWS...GREATER
THAN 1.7 INCHES...AND FAIRLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT CAN BE
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW WITH PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...A CONCERN ALONG
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. FOR MONDAY...THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE A TAD
DRIER...BUT THIS MAY ONLY SERVE TO ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS AND STORMS
DRIVEN BY THE BETTER INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESSER THAN THAT OF TODAY.
THE BCCONSSHORT WAS TAKEN FOR A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN THE BCCONSALL USED
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RIDGE AND
VALLEY SPOTS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO A MOS
BLEND...WITH A DIURNAL FLARE...THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE APPALACHIAN REGION OF
EASTERN KY OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO ONTARIO...ALLOWING A DEEP TROUGH TO MOVE INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION
EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
AMPLITUDE AS IT DOES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP A STRONG HOLD
ACROSS THE SE DURING THIS TIME...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUPPRESSED
MORE SWRD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AND LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO CEASE ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WHILE A BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CORRESPOND WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL BLOCK THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT...STILL EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT
AND WEAKEN ACROSS KENTUCKY DURING THE MIDWEEK. BEFORE IT IS FINALLY
ABLE TO DROP SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...WINDS WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO A MORE NRLY DIRECTION...AND DRIER MORE STABLE AIR
WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION. POPS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS FOLLOWING SUIT. TEMPS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP BY THURSDAY...REACHING THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT
WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY IN THE AIR. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SHOULD
KEEP POPS OUT OF EASTERN KY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...GOOD DIURNAL RADIATION WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING
HIGH TEMPERATURES /BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S/ FOR
SATURDAY...WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SME
AND LOZ BEING IMPACTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND JKL AND SJS IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS
IMPACTING THE REGION INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BUT MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1118 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
OUTFLOW FROM THE WESTERN TN MCS WILL SERVE AS FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS IN
THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING
ENE DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPDATED NDFD AND
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS REFLECT THIS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE SENT TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS SHORTLY AFTER 14Z.
UPDATE WILL PRIMARILY BE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SKY
COVER...TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY IS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS EAST KY OF 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES AT
12Z...WITH THE 12Z ILN AND OHX SOUNDINGS AT 1.58 AND 1.55 INCHES. AS
SUCH HEAVY RAINERS STILL A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM
MOTION MAY BE SLIGHTLY GREATER TODAY AT 11 TO 14 KNOTS BASED ON
MORNING SOUNDINGS. EVEN SO WITH CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY ALSO LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES EAST KY IN 5
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WIND. WILL ALSO BE UPDATING THE HWO
TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE THREATS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS AND MINIMIZE THE FOG FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER...T...AND TD GRIDS BASED ON TH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS WITH A NEW SET OF ZONES AND HWO TO FOLLOW BY 8 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST...NOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY LYING OVER EAST KENTUCKY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WELL AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW IS KEEPING A SUPPLY OF WARM AND HUMID
AIR ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. AS SUCH...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER IN MOST PLACES. ON RADAR...A LATE EVENING LULL IN ACTIVITY HAS
RETURNED TO EAST KENTUCKY AS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERNMOST
COUNTIES HAVE FADED OUT. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWERS IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...HEADING TOWARD THE CWA. ON SATELLITE...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BRIEFLY REDEVELOPED EARLIER BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH A NEW UPSURGE IS NOTED IN RECENT IMAGES. SO FAR THERE
HAS BEEN ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP THE FOG FROM SHOWING UP TOO THICK
IN THE AREA OBS AND WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS ARE AGAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THEY ALL TAKE THE DEEP AND BROAD CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS CIRCULATION WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY
RIPPLING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FLANK AND BRUSHING PAST KENTUCKY. THE
LEADING ONE OF THESE WILL PASS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER
HELPING TO FURTHER SUPPRESS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. ANOTHER MINOR WAVE
WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. HEIGHTS OVER KENTUCKY WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED INTO MONDAY EVENING EVEN THOUGH THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE TRIES TO EDGE BACK NORTH INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT...AND THE SMALL SCALE OF THE DETERMINATIVE
FEATURES...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS...AND THEN INCREASINGLY
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY AND PEAKING IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO DAYS ANY STORM
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH PWS...GREATER
THAN 1.7 INCHES...AND FAIRLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT CAN BE
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW WITH PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...A CONCERN ALONG
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. FOR MONDAY...THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE A TAD
DRIER...BUT THIS MAY ONLY SERVE TO ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS AND STORMS
DRIVEN BY THE BETTER INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESSER THAN THAT OF TODAY.
THE BCCONSSHORT WAS TAKEN FOR A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN THE BCCONSALL USED
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RIDGE AND
VALLEY SPOTS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO A MOS
BLEND...WITH A DIURNAL FLARE...THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE APPALACHIAN REGION OF
EASTERN KY OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO ONTARIO...ALLOWING A DEEP TROUGH TO MOVE INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION
EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
AMPLITUDE AS IT DOES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP A STRONG HOLD
ACROSS THE SE DURING THIS TIME...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUPPRESSED
MORE SWRD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AND LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO CEASE ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WHILE A BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CORRESPOND WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL BLOCK THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT...STILL EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT
AND WEAKEN ACROSS KENTUCKY DURING THE MIDWEEK. BEFORE IT IS FINALLY
ABLE TO DROP SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...WINDS WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO A MORE NRLY DIRECTION...AND DRIER MORE STABLE AIR
WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION. POPS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS FOLLOWING SUIT. TEMPS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP BY THURSDAY...REACHING THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT
WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY IN THE AIR. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SHOULD
KEEP POPS OUT OF EASTERN KY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...GOOD DIURNAL RADIATION WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING
HIGH TEMPERATURES /BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S/ FOR
SATURDAY...WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO EAST KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHERE TEMPOS ARE IN
THE TAFS FOR MVFR VIS FROM THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. DROPPED THE VCTS BACK TO VCSH A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
944 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE SENT TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS SHORTLY AFTER 14Z.
UPDATE WILL PRIMARILY BE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SKY
COVER...TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY IS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS EAST KY OF 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES AT
12Z...WITH THE 12Z ILN AND OHX SOUNDINGS AT 1.58 AND 1.55 INCHES. AS
SUCH HEAVY RAINERS STILL A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM
MOTION MAY BE SLIGHTLY GREATER TODAY AT 11 TO 14 KNOTS BASED ON
MORNING SOUNDINGS. EVEN SO WITH CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY ALSO LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES EAST KY IN 5
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WIND. WILL ALSO BE UPDATING THE HWO
TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE THREATS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS AND MINIMIZE THE FOG FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER...T...AND TD GRIDS BASED ON TH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS WITH A NEW SET OF ZONES AND HWO TO FOLLOW BY 8 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST...NOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY LYING OVER EAST KENTUCKY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WELL AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW IS KEEPING A SUPPLY OF WARM AND HUMID
AIR ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. AS SUCH...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER IN MOST PLACES. ON RADAR...A LATE EVENING LULL IN ACTIVITY HAS
RETURNED TO EAST KENTUCKY AS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERNMOST
COUNTIES HAVE FADED OUT. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWERS IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...HEADING TOWARD THE CWA. ON SATELLITE...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BRIEFLY REDEVELOPED EARLIER BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH A NEW UPSURGE IS NOTED IN RECENT IMAGES. SO FAR THERE
HAS BEEN ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP THE FOG FROM SHOWING UP TOO THICK
IN THE AREA OBS AND WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS ARE AGAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THEY ALL TAKE THE DEEP AND BROAD CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS CIRCULATION WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY
RIPPLING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FLANK AND BRUSHING PAST KENTUCKY. THE
LEADING ONE OF THESE WILL PASS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER
HELPING TO FURTHER SUPPRESS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. ANOTHER MINOR WAVE
WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. HEIGHTS OVER KENTUCKY WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED INTO MONDAY EVENING EVEN THOUGH THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE TRIES TO EDGE BACK NORTH INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT...AND THE SMALL SCALE OF THE DETERMINATIVE
FEATURES...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS...AND THEN INCREASINGLY
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY AND PEAKING IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO DAYS ANY STORM
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH PWS...GREATER
THAN 1.7 INCHES...AND FAIRLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT CAN BE
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW WITH PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...A CONCERN ALONG
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. FOR MONDAY...THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE A TAD
DRIER...BUT THIS MAY ONLY SERVE TO ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS AND STORMS
DRIVEN BY THE BETTER INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESSER THAN THAT OF TODAY.
THE BCCONSSHORT WAS TAKEN FOR A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN THE BCCONSALL USED
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RIDGE AND
VALLEY SPOTS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO A MOS
BLEND...WITH A DIURNAL FLARE...THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE APPALACHIAN REGION OF
EASTERN KY OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO ONTARIO...ALLOWING A DEEP TROUGH TO MOVE INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION
EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
AMPLITUDE AS IT DOES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP A STRONG HOLD
ACROSS THE SE DURING THIS TIME...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUPPRESSED
MORE SWRD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AND LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO CEASE ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WHILE A BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CORRESPOND WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL BLOCK THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT...STILL EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT
AND WEAKEN ACROSS KENTUCKY DURING THE MIDWEEK. BEFORE IT IS FINALLY
ABLE TO DROP SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...WINDS WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO A MORE NRLY DIRECTION...AND DRIER MORE STABLE AIR
WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION. POPS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS FOLLOWING SUIT. TEMPS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP BY THURSDAY...REACHING THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT
WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY IN THE AIR. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SHOULD
KEEP POPS OUT OF EASTERN KY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...GOOD DIURNAL RADIATION WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING
HIGH TEMPERATURES /BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S/ FOR
SATURDAY...WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO EAST KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHERE TEMPOS ARE IN
THE TAFS FOR MVFR VIS FROM THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. DROPPED THE VCTS BACK TO VCSH A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
654 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 654 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
Updated public forecast to expand likely probabilities of showers
and thunderstorms further north into southern Illinois to account
for convective development that continues to expand eastward from
south central into southeast Missouri.
Also revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be a possibility today
as the Quad State region remains in a warm, moist, and unstable
environment. Specifically, showers and thunderstorms have developed
overnight over portions of southeast Missouri, northeast Arkansas,
and western Tennessee in response to the approach of a mid level
shortwave trough and the development of weak mid level convergence
in advance of this feature. Utilizing the HRRR and various runs of
the NAM-WRF, anticipate the activity to our southwest will continue
to spread northeast through early morning. Southeast Missouri, far
southern Illinois, and much of western Kentucky will see the
greatest coverage, with lesser coverage further north. As the wave
begins to shift east of the area, the overall chance of showers
and thunderstorms will decrease from west to east this afternoon
and evening. Temperatures will be highly dependent on how much
sunshine we see today, but current thinking is most areas will be
able to make mid 80s by afternoon.
Model forecast soundings indicate a drying of the mid atmosphere
as the northern periphery of an upper level ridge over the
southern U.S. briefly becomes more influential on Monday. As a
result, most areas should remain precipitation free, though an
isolated thunderstorm is certainly possible. With more sunshine,
temperatures will climb back into the lower 90s Monday and
Tuesday. Heat index readings will likely peak near 100 degrees
both Monday and Tuesday across much of the area.
Late Monday night and especially Tuesday, the chance of showers
and thunderstorms will be on the increase as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Isolated strong to severe storms
cannot be ruled out during this time, but the potential for
organized severe weather appears rather low at this point.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
Upper trof still forecast to move slowly east across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region late Tuesday through Thursday. Until
the final h5 trof axis swings through Thursday, will have to linger
PoPs for convection through Wednesday night given the active SW flow
ahead of the h5 trof, causing a slow SE frontal movement. Once the
mid level trof axis moves through Thursday, the flow aloft will turn
NW with high pressure building into the region into the first part
of the weekend. This change will allow for slightly lower
temperatures and humidity, including for the 4th of July holiday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 654 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
The passage of a mid level shortwave disturbance will bring
scattered to numerous thunderstorms to the region today. Better
chances at KCGI and KPAH will be this morning through midday. The
activity should expand eastward to impact KEVV and KOWB by late
morning and afternoon. Will amend TAFs as necessary when specific
timing becomes more clear. MVFR ceilings have developed at KCGI and
are attempting to do so at KPAH. High MVFR or low VFR ceilings
should develop at all forecast terminals by 15Z, and a further
reduction may occur in association with thunderstorm activity. South
winds around 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots will subside somewhat
tonight.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJP
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...RJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
740 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS AND MINIMIZE THE FOG FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER...T...AND TD GRIDS BASED ON TH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS WITH A NEW SET OF ZONES AND HWO TO FOLLOW BY 8 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST...NOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY LYING OVER EAST KENTUCKY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WELL AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW IS KEEPING A SUPPLY OF WARM AND HUMID
AIR ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. AS SUCH...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER IN MOST PLACES. ON RADAR...A LATE EVENING LULL IN ACTIVITY HAS
RETURNED TO EAST KENTUCKY AS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERNMOST
COUNTIES HAVE FADED OUT. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWERS IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...HEADING TOWARD THE CWA. ON SATELLITE...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BRIEFLY REDEVELOPED EARLIER BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH A NEW UPSURGE IS NOTED IN RECENT IMAGES. SO FAR THERE
HAS BEEN ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP THE FOG FROM SHOWING UP TOO THICK
IN THE AREA OBS AND WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS ARE AGAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THEY ALL TAKE THE DEEP AND BROAD CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS CIRCULATION WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY
RIPPLING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FLANK AND BRUSHING PAST KENTUCKY. THE
LEADING ONE OF THESE WILL PASS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER
HELPING TO FURTHER SUPPRESS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. ANOTHER MINOR WAVE
WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. HEIGHTS OVER KENTUCKY WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED INTO MONDAY EVENING EVEN THOUGH THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE TRIES TO EDGE BACK NORTH INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT...AND THE SMALL SCALE OF THE DETERMINATIVE
FEATURES...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS...AND THEN INCREASINGLY
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY AND PEAKING IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO DAYS ANY STORM
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH PWS...GREATER
THAN 1.7 INCHES...AND FAIRLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT CAN BE
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW WITH PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...A CONCERN ALONG
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. FOR MONDAY...THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE A TAD
DRIER...BUT THIS MAY ONLY SERVE TO ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS AND STORMS
DRIVEN BY THE BETTER INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESSER THAN THAT OF TODAY.
THE BCCONSSHORT WAS TAKEN FOR A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN THE BCCONSALL USED
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RIDGE AND
VALLEY SPOTS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO A MOS
BLEND...WITH A DIURNAL FLARE...THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE APPALACHIAN REGION OF
EASTERN KY OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO ONTARIO...ALLOWING A DEEP TROUGH TO MOVE INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION
EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
AMPLITUDE AS IT DOES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP A STRONG HOLD
ACROSS THE SE DURING THIS TIME...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUPPRESSED
MORE SWRD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AND LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO CEASE ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WHILE A BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CORRESPOND WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL BLOCK THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT...STILL EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT
AND WEAKEN ACROSS KENTUCKY DURING THE MIDWEEK. BEFORE IT IS FINALLY
ABLE TO DROP SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...WINDS WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO A MORE NRLY DIRECTION...AND DRIER MORE STABLE AIR
WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION. POPS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS FOLLOWING SUIT. TEMPS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP BY THURSDAY...REACHING THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT
WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY IN THE AIR. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SHOULD
KEEP POPS OUT OF EASTERN KY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...GOOD DIURNAL RADIATION WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING
HIGH TEMPERATURES /BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S/ FOR
SATURDAY...WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO EAST KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHERE TEMPOS ARE IN
THE TAFS FOR MVFR VIS FROM THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. DROPPED THE VCTS BACK TO VCSH A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
336 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be a possibility today
as the Quad State region remains in a warm, moist, and unstable
environment. Specifically, showers and thunderstorms have developed
overnight over portions of southeast Missouri, northeast Arkansas,
and western Tennessee in response to the approach of a mid level
shortwave trough and the development of weak mid level convergence
in advance of this feature. Utilizing the HRRR and various runs of
the NAM-WRF, anticipate the activity to our southwest will continue
to spread northeast through early morning. Southeast Missouri, far
southern Illinois, and much of western Kentucky will see the
greatest coverage, with lesser coverage further north. As the wave
begins to shift east of the area, the overall chance of showers
and thunderstorms will decrease from west to east this afternoon
and evening. Temperatures will be highly dependent on how much
sunshine we see today, but current thinking is most areas will be
able to make mid 80s by afternoon.
Model forecast soundings indicate a drying of the mid atmosphere
as the northern periphery of an upper level ridge over the
southern U.S. briefly becomes more influential on Monday. As a
result, most areas should remain precipitation free, though an
isolated thunderstorm is certainly possible. With more sunshine,
temperatures will climb back into the lower 90s Monday and
Tuesday. Heat index readings will likely peak near 100 degrees
both Monday and Tuesday across much of the area.
Late Monday night and especially Tuesday, the chance of showers
and thunderstorms will be on the increase as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Isolated strong to severe storms
cannot be ruled out during this time, but the potential for
organized severe weather appears rather low at this point.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
Upper trof still forecast to move slowly east across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region late Tuesday through Thursday. Until
the final h5 trof axis swings through Thursday, will have to linger
PoPs for convection through Wednesday night given the active SW flow
ahead of the h5 trof, causing a slow SE frontal movement. Once the
mid level trof axis moves through Thursday, the flow aloft will turn
NW with high pressure building into the region into the first part
of the weekend. This change will allow for slightly lower
temperatures and humidity, including for the 4th of July holiday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014
Convection from earlier this evening continues to weaken as it
moves through southeast Missouri. Added a brief VCTS to KCGI. Conditions
should remain VFR overnight. Approaching shortwave will bring MVFR cigs
and a chance of thunder by mid morning Sunday. Winds will remain
out of the south at 5 to 10 mph.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...ML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
345 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST...NOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY LYING OVER EAST KENTUCKY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WELL AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW IS KEEPING A SUPPLY OF WARM AND HUMID
AIR ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. AS SUCH...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER IN MOST PLACES. ON RADAR...A LATE EVENING LULL IN ACTIVITY HAS
RETURNED TO EAST KENTUCKY AS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERNMOST
COUNTIES HAVE FADED OUT. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWERS IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...HEADING TOWARD THE CWA. ON SATELLITE...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BRIEFLY REDEVELOPED EARLIER BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH A NEW UPSURGE IS NOTED IN RECENT IMAGES. SO FAR THERE
HAS BEEN ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP THE FOG FROM SHOWING UP TOO THICK
IN THE AREA OBS AND WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS ARE AGAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THEY ALL TAKE THE DEEP AND BROAD CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS CIRCULATION WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY
RIPPLING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FLANK AND BRUSHING PAST KENTUCKY. THE
LEADING ONE OF THESE WILL PASS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER
HELPING TO FURTHER SUPPRESS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. ANOTHER MINOR WAVE
WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. HEIGHTS OVER KENTUCKY WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED INTO MONDAY EVENING EVEN THOUGH THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE TRIES TO EDGE BACK NORTH INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT...AND THE SMALL SCALE OF THE DETERMINATIVE
FEATURES...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS...AND THEN INCREASINGLY
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY AND PEAKING IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO DAYS ANY STORM
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH PWS...GREATER
THAN 1.7 INCHES...AND FAIRLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT CAN BE
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW WITH PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...A CONCERN ALONG
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. FOR MONDAY...THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE A TAD
DRIER...BUT THIS MAY ONLY SERVE TO ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS AND STORMS
DRIVEN BY THE BETTER INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESSER THAN THAT OF TODAY.
THE BCCONSSHORT WAS TAKEN FOR A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN THE BCCONSALL USED
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RIDGE AND
VALLEY SPOTS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO A MOS
BLEND...WITH A DIURNAL FLARE...THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE APPALACHIAN REGION OF
EASTERN KY OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO ONTARIO...ALLOWING A DEEP TROUGH TO MOVE INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION
EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
AMPLITUDE AS IT DOES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP A STRONG HOLD
ACROSS THE SE DURING THIS TIME...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUPPRESSED
MORE SWRD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AND LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO CEASE ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WHILE A BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CORRESPOND WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL BLOCK THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT...STILL EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT
AND WEAKEN ACROSS KENTUCKY DURING THE MIDWEEK. BEFORE IT IS FINALLY
ABLE TO DROP SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...WINDS WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO A MORE NRLY DIRECTION...AND DRIER MORE STABLE AIR
WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION. POPS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS FOLLOWING SUIT. TEMPS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP BY THURSDAY...REACHING THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT
WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY IN THE AIR. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SHOULD
KEEP POPS OUT OF EASTERN KY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...GOOD DIURNAL RADIATION WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING
HIGH TEMPERATURES /BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S/ FOR
SATURDAY...WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
FOG WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
SKIES HAVE CLOUDED BACK UP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. NEARLY CALM
SURFACE WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...HELPING TO SUSTAIN ANY FOG. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
TO DROP DOWN TO IFR OR WORSE EVENTUALLY EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
THREATEN ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN TEMPOS
WERE INTRODUCED IN THE TAFS FOR MVFR VIS FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1222 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. PERIODS OF MVFR/LOW
VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING
VFR BY 30/00Z. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO RETURN ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...AFTER 30/06Z...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED BENEATH DIURNAL INVERSION. CEILINGS TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH 30/16Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOW TO MID 80S AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. DEW
POINTS ARE HOLDING UNDER THE CLOUDS...BUT SHOULD DROP OFF A BIT
INTO THE AFTERNOON KEEPING US BELOW ANY MAJOR HEAT CONCERNS. THERE
IS JUST NOT MUCH IN THE OFFING ON THE HRRR OR NAM MODELS WITH A
FEW DABBLES MAINLY EAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OUR SOUNDING THIS
MORNING SHOWED A GOOD WARM UP ALOFT AND WILL DO MUCH TO KEEP A LID
ON CONVECTION COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE ENJOYED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. WE CAN ONLY LOOK AHEAD TO THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MID
TO LATE WEEK TO KNOCK DOWN THE ALREADY BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST HIGHS...JUST SOME ADDED CLOUDS FOR A BIT
LONGER AND A TAPERING OF POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAFS...MVFR AND LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST LATE MORNING...THEN EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO LIFT AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME SCATTERED BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR
20 KTS. ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TODAY COMPARED TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ENDING BY 30/01Z. /14/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY DIVING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM
THE NW THIS MORNING. CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART HAS BEEN
CONFINED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE AR WHERE BEST UPPER FORCING EXISTS.
CLOSER TO HOME...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS NE TX/NW LA BUT FORCING IS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED
ACROSS AR THIS MORNING. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS ALL OF SW AR INTO SE OK FOR THIS MORNING ONLY...
TRANSITIONING POPS BACK DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY FOR THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH OUR REGION
TODAY...WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A REMNANT SHEAR AXIS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY BUT FORCING APPEARS TO BE ALL BUT ABSENT SO HAVE LEFT POPS
OUT OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AFTER TODAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY WILL BE WEAK UPPER RIDGING WHICH
WILL EXPAND FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY...EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
RED RIVER VALLEY OF SE OK/SW AR AND INTO THE TENN VALLEY BY TUE.
THE RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAKDOWN SOMEWHAT BY MID WEEK AS ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HEADS OUR WAY.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH AND
THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN IN DESCENT AGREEMENT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING THIS UPPER TROUGH
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND AREA WIDE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK AND WILL
LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY PERHAPS EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH WEAK RIDGING
EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER AFTER TODAY...EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE EARLY SUMMER SEASON THIS WEEK. MIDDLE 90S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND GIVEN THE
MOIST DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY
REACH OR JUST EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS. BELIEVE WE
ARE STILL SOME 3-5 DEGREES ON THE HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR AN
ADVISORY HOWEVER IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 93 76 93 74 94 / 20 10 10 10 10
MLU 93 72 93 71 94 / 20 10 10 10 10
DEQ 91 73 93 69 93 / 20 10 10 10 10
TXK 91 75 92 74 93 / 20 10 10 10 10
ELD 91 72 92 71 93 / 20 10 10 10 10
TYR 93 76 93 75 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
GGG 93 76 93 74 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
LFK 93 77 95 75 95 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1115 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOW TO MID 80S AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. DEW
POINTS ARE HOLDING UNDER THE CLOUDS...BUT SHOULD DROP OFF A BIT
INTO THE AFTERNOON KEEPING US BELOW ANY MAJOR HEAT CONCERNS. THERE
IS JUST NOT MUCH IN THE OFFING ON THE HRRR OR NAM MODELS WITH A
FEW DABBLES MAINLY EAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OUR SOUNDING THIS
MORNING SHOWED A GOOD WARM UP ALOFT AND WILL DO MUCH TO KEEP A LID
ON CONVECTION COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE ENJOYED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. WE CAN ONLY LOOK AHEAD TO THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MID
TO LATE WEEK TO KNOCK DOWN THE ALREADY BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST HIGHS...JUST SOME ADDED CLOUDS FOR A BIT
LONGER AND A TAPERING OF POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAFS...MVFR AND LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST LATE MORNING...THEN EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO LIFT AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME SCATTERED BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR
20 KTS. ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TODAY COMPARED TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ENDING BY 30/01Z. /14/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY DIVING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM
THE NW THIS MORNING. CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART HAS BEEN
CONFINED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE AR WHERE BEST UPPER FORCING EXISTS.
CLOSER TO HOME...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS NE TX/NW LA BUT FORCING IS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED
ACROSS AR THIS MORNING. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS ALL OF SW AR INTO SE OK FOR THIS MORNING ONLY...
TRANSITIONING POPS BACK DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY FOR THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH OUR REGION
TODAY...WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A REMNANT SHEAR AXIS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY BUT FORCING APPEARS TO BE ALL BUT ABSENT SO HAVE LEFT POPS
OUT OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AFTER TODAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY WILL BE WEAK UPPER RIDGING WHICH
WILL EXPAND FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY...EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
RED RIVER VALLEY OF SE OK/SW AR AND INTO THE TENN VALLEY BY TUE.
THE RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAKDOWN SOMEWHAT BY MID WEEK AS ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HEADS OUR WAY.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH AND
THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN IN DESCENT AGREEMENT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING THIS UPPER TROUGH
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND AREA WIDE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK AND WILL
LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY PERHAPS EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH WEAK RIDGING
EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER AFTER TODAY...EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE EARLY SUMMER SEASON THIS WEEK. MIDDLE 90S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND GIVEN THE
MOIST DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY
REACH OR JUST EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS. BELIEVE WE
ARE STILL SOME 3-5 DEGREES ON THE HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR AN
ADVISORY HOWEVER IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 93 76 93 74 94 / 20 10 10 10 10
MLU 93 72 93 71 94 / 20 10 10 10 10
DEQ 91 73 93 69 93 / 30 10 10 10 10
TXK 91 75 92 74 93 / 30 10 10 10 10
ELD 91 72 92 71 93 / 30 10 10 10 10
TYR 93 76 93 75 94 / 20 10 10 10 10
GGG 93 76 93 74 94 / 20 10 10 10 10
LFK 93 77 95 75 95 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
925 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 925 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS NOW INLAND ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
TREES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES IN MASON COUNTY WITH THE MORE SOLID
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LINE. FURTHER SOUTH THE
LINE IS WEAKER BUT RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS SECTION FILLING IN WITH
VIGOROUS NEW UPDRAFTS AND WE EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE
LINE MOVES EAST WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DOWNBURST
WINDS...ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES AND HODOGRAPHS STILL SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO.
DESPITE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THE
FLOODING RISK AT THIS POINT APPEARS MITIGATED BY RAPID EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. A SECOND LINE OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS IS NOT SHOWN ON THE CURRENT HRRR SO EVOLUTION OF
THIS CONVECTION IS HARD TO FORECAST UNTIL IT GETS PICKED UP IN
FUTURE RUNS BUT WE WILL ASSUME IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER GIVEN
EXPECTED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. MUCH
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
ALL EYES ON STORMS OVER IOWA/NEBRASKA/WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS AND HOW
THEY MOVE TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LONG
LASTING STORMS WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE
REMAINS WEST AND SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...A LOW LEVEL JET
OF UP TO 70 KNOTS NUDGES INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING KEEPING
ELEVATED OUR POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND STORMS IN THE FORM OF A
SQUALL LINE AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO.
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR INTO THE NIGHT SUPPORTS STORM MAINTENANCE
IN LOWER MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHWESTER PART OF THE STATE
THOUGH ALL OF LOWER MICHIGAN IS AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT.
GETTING PAST PEAK HEATING AND WELL INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS BEFORE
STORMS WORK IN COULD HELP TO LIMIT HOW STRONG STORMS ARE WHEN THEY
REACH LOWER MICHIGAN.
CURRENT TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD SUGGEST THAT 8PM WOULD BE THE
EARLIEST THE MAIN STORMS WOULD ARRIVE AND QUITE POSSIBLY AFTER 10PM.
MODELS FAVOR THE LATER TIMING...BUT TYPICALLY THESE TYPE OF STORMS
MOVE FASTER THAN EXPECTED...SO 8PM COULD BE A REASONABLE STARTING
TIME FOR STORMS APPROACHING THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT OF STORMS APPEAR LIKELY...MEANING THEY SHOULD MOVE OUT
PRETTY QUICKLY. STORMS WILL NOT AFFECT MANY LOCATIONS UNTIL AFTER
FOLKS TYPICALLY GO TO SLEEP FOR THE NIGHT.
BEYOND TONIGHT...A PRETTY QUIET REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
ONLY A FEW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 70 BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AND MILD ACROSS SW
LOWER MICHIGAN. WE WILL SEE THE MID WEEK TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA ON THU. WE WILL SEE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE
AREA FROM THU RIGHT ON INTO SUN. THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO
MOVE WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND A POSSIBLE
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING NORTH JUST OFF OF THE EAST U.S. COAST. COOL
TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR INITIALLY IN THE 70S WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BY SUN.
WE WILL SEE A PUSH OF MUCH WARMER AND MOIST AIR MAKE A RUN AT THE
AREA LATE SUN AND INTO MON. ONCE THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC STEERS OUT TO SEA...THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO
SHIFT EAST AND THE NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. THE CHC OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN INCREASE SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
CONVECTION HAS ACCELERATED AND IS TRACKING CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS. THUS
THE TAFS FEATURE A SOONER ARRIVAL OF THE STORMS. THIS ALSO MEANS
THE LINE MOVES OUT QUICKER. WHILE LESS IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION IS
FORECASTED LATER TONIGHT...INSTABILITY DOES PERSIST...THUS I
FEATURED VCTS IN THE TAFS. GUSTY WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS LIKELY WITH THE
ONSET OF THIS INITIAL BATCH OF STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
WINDS AND WAVES TO POSE HAZARDS TO SMALL CRAFT AND BEACH GOERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT
GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AGAIN TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.
THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AND QUICK RISES ON
CREEKS AND STREAMS. TRAINING OF STORMS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
THIS EVENING...SO RISES ON LARGER RIVERS IS EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-
050-056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
248 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP CLOSED LO
JUST SW OF LK WINNIPEG UPSTREAM OF UPR RDG SRETCHING FM HUDSON BAY
INTO THE SE CONUS. VIGOROUS SHRTWV LIFTING NNEWD THRU MN IN THE SLY
FLOW ALF BTWN THESE FEATURES AND ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC OVER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E/PWAT UP TO 1.70 INCHES /175 PCT
OF NORMAL/ IS CAUSING A BAND OF SHOWERS/TS FM WRN LK SUP SWD THRU
WRN UPR MI AND WI. OTHER ISOLD SHRA/TS HAVE FORMED OVER THE SCENTRAL
CWA TO THE E OF THE MAIN LINE OF SHRA/TS WHERE LATEST RUC SHOWS MORE
VIGOROUS H85 THETA E ADVCTN AND ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV IN ADVANCE OF
THE MAIN FEATURE. DESPITE THE RATHER VIGOROUS DYNAMIC FORCING...
FAIRLY SHARP NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN INTO THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS/WEAK DEEP LYR 0-6KM SHEAR GENERALLY NO GREATER THAN
20-25KTS/WEAK DOWNDRAFT CAPE HAS LIMITED THE INTENSITY OF THE TS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHOWER/TS LINE.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS SHORT TERM PACKAGE INCLUDE SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV IN MN EARLY THIS MRNG AND OTHER DISTURBANCES
ROTATING ARND MAIN CLOSED LO IN SRN CANADA.
EARLY THIS MRNG/TODAY...MN SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC ARE PROGGED TO SWING NEWD THRU UPR MI/LK SUP INTO ONTARIO
EARLY THIS AFTN...GIVING WAY TO A PERIOD OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/
MID LVL DRYING. THE LATEST RUC AND THE BULK OF THE OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN WL OCCUR UNDER THE
BETTER FORCING AND CONTRIBUTE TO FALLING MUCAPES IN THE ABSENCE OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS/TS WL TEND TO
DIMINISH AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE NE THRU THE CWA. LIKE THE
AREA OF SHOWERS/TS THAT FORMED OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA EARLIER WELL IN
ADVANCE OF THE LARGER LINE OF SHOWERS...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS/SOME TS
TO DVLP E OF THE LARGER SCALE LINE WHERE H85 THETA E ADVCTN WL BE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON THIS EXPECTATION. ALL OF THESE SHOWERS/TS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NE
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING DYNAMICS THIS AFTN. NEXT CONCERN IS WHETHER
MORE SHRA/TS WL DVLP THIS AFTN WITH THE RETURN OF SOME CLRG
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE AXIS OF LOWER H85 THETA E AND THE
PSBL APRCH OF ANOTHER SHRTWV NOW MOVING E THRU SDAKOTA TO THE S OF
THE CLOSED LO. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF H85 THETA E ADVCTN
REDVLPG LATER TODAY AT A TIME WHEN THIS SHRTWV WL BE APRCHG FM THE
W. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WL BE THE LARGER SCALE DRYING LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS FCST TO DROP PWAT CLOSE
TO AN INCH. WL GO NO HIER THAN LO CHC POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY DESPITE
FCST STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES UP TO 7-7.5C/KM ENHANCED BY DAYTIME
HEATING THAT WL LIFT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FM THE COOLING
INFLUENCE OF LK MI.
TNGT...DISTURBANCE THAT MIGHT CAUSE SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS/TS WL
SHIFT TO THE NE LATER IN THE EVNG. MODELS THEN HINT ANOTHER STRONGER
SHRTWV/AREA OF DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL APRCH LATER AT
NGT. WENT WITH THE HIER POPS OVER THE SE CWA CLOSER TO AXIS OF HIER
H85 THETA E AND WHERE THE 12Z ECMWF CONSISTENT 00Z CNDN MODELS SHOW
THE HIER QPF. SINCE THE BULK OF THE MODELS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR
PERSISTING OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA WITH MEAN H85-5 RH AS LO AS
30-40 PCT...OPTED TO KEEP THESE AREAS DRY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
CLOSE OFF TODAY AND BE NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT OVER LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ON MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE MERGING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER FAR NORTHERN
CANADA MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...IT WILL LEAVE A TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS OVER LAKE WINNIPEG MONDAY MORNING...THERE
LOOKS TO BE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING OF
THESE WAVES HAVE BEEN VARYING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IT
APPEARS ONE WILL SHIFT THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES...ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT. PINNING DOWN THE TIMING/LOCATIONS OF THESE WAVES IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT AND WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY LINGER SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA.
THEN...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST TREND IS FOR THIS WAVE AND
SURFACE TROUGH TO KICK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN (FOLLOWING STORM MOTION AND FORWARD PROPAGATING
CORFIDI VECTORS). WHERE THAT DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL BE THE KEY TO
MONDAY NIGHTS FORECAST AND WITH THE TREND TOWARDS IT BEING FARTHER
SOUTH...HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOME OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING (KEEPING LIKELY VALUES RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND DIMINISHING CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST). ALSO
FOR MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEST HALF WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. HAVE TRENDED WINDS UP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TREND TOWARDS
MORE SUN AND BETTER MIXING INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND HAVE
GUSTS TO 30KTS FOR THE WEST HALF/THIRD. IN ADDITION...WITH THE
TREND TOWARDS BETTER MIXING...THERE ARE INDICATIONS DEWPOINTS COULD
MIX OUT AND FALL LOWER THAN THE LOW/MID 50S CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINT VALUES FROM THE MODELS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR VALUES TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S...BUT THINK A
LOT DEPENDS ON EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION. WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS...MIXING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S WOULD CREATE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS (RH FALLING INTO UPPER 20S
ALTHOUGH THE WEST HAS SEEN THE MOST PRECIP LATELY)...SO WILL NEED TO
WATCH THAT POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT DAY.
BEHIND THE MONDAY EVENING WAVE...SHOULD GET A DRY PERIOD AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BUT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO DIURNAL
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAND AREAS...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO HAVE TRENDED POPS UP
TO HIGH END CHANCES OVER THE AFTERNOON AND ATTEMPTED TO SHOW A RAMP
UP DURING THE MORNING. WITH ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 100-400 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH DIURNAL HEATING LOST...THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SHOWER CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END.
EXPECT A MUCH COOLER PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
(FROM A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS) NOSES EAST INTO THE
AREA. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTOLLING THINGS...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR WED/THURS AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S. WILL
NEED TO WATCH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE TRENDED LOWS DOWN A
LITTLE...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS OUT
WEST APPROACH 40 OR EVEN UPPER 30S.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PULLING OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND THE
HIGH CENTER SHIFTING EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR NO PRECIP ON THE 4TH
OF JULY DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE STILL OVER THE AREA.
THEREFORE...HAVE PULLED THE PRECIPITATION MENTION. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SINCE THE 00Z MODEL
RUNS ARE ONLY SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE...HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN
TO LOW END CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR W
LAKE SUPERIOR PUSHING NNE. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLIP
CMX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDED VCTS/CB TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW
POTENTIAL. MORE THAN LIKELY THE CONVECTION WILL BE N OF THE AIRPORT.
STILL...DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GIVE US GUSTS OF 20-27KTS
/STRONGEST AT IWD/. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER S WINDS OF 20-30KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEARING SAW BY 16-18Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IT AT
THIS TIME AS THE BEST CHANCE IS WELL TO THE SE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
WARM/MOIST S WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FOG TO THE COOL WATERS OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 30KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OUTSISE OF ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS LIKE THE ONES PUSHING THROUGH W LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A DEEP LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL
ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...AND JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A TROUGH TO DEEPEN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
N AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY TO PUSH A RIDGE INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR...BEFORE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ248.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
140 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WE WILL SEE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL COME MONDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONG FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL FACTORS COMBINE TO LOWER THE THREAT FOR STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASED INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
SHOWERS AND A COOLER WIND DRIVING INLAND OFF THE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. ALSO...DEEPER MOISTURE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
SWEEPING EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
ON THE UPSIDE HOWEVER IS A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE VORT SWEEPING EASTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THESE FEATURES WILL BE PRESSING INTO SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE WILL BE THAT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MODULATED BY A FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
HAVE SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST...30 PCT...TO COVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS AT THIS POINT. BUT...WITH HRRR SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE SHOWING THE FORECAST AREA DRY ALL THE WAY INTO
THE EVENING THINKING WE MAY STAY DRY. VERY LOW CHANCE POP SEEMS TO
BE THE WAY TO GO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST REMAINS ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE ARE LOOKING AT DECENT THREATS OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS
MORNING AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PCPN POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WI AND IL EARLY
THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THERE HAVE BEEN
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORMED ACROSS OUR NW SECTIONS THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OUR
WAY. THE MAIN BAND OF PCPN HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD...HOWEVER
IT WILL HAVE A SOLID PUSH FROM A SHORT WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL IA. IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
ALSO. WE DO THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME MEASURABLE RAIN FROM
THIS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT REALLY A CONCERN WITH THIS BAND AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS NON-EXISTENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STILL RELATIVELY
WEAK AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. THIS BAND COULD RE-IGNITE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS BETTER INSTABILITY. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE WELL
EAST OF OUR AREA...SO IT IS NOT REALLY A CONCERN AT THIS TIME. WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER/STORM POPPING THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WE
WILL BE UNDER SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.
WE SHOULD SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PCPN FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL SEE SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH A 30+ KNOT LLJ
THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA MON MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A
THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY INITIALLY TO WORK WITH.
THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ON MON AFTERNOON ONCE ANY
INITIAL PCPN DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
WE SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT CAPPED BY AFTERNOON THAT WILL REMAIN THE
CASE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IF WE GET SOME KIND OF BOUNDARY
TO DEVELOP /I.E. LAKE BREEZE/SHADOW...ETC.../ WE COULD POP A STORM.
THE MUCH BETTER CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME MON NIGHT AFTER
SUNSET. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IS ROTATING A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND AROUND THE UNDERSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WAVE AND JET STREAK TO OUR NORTH WILL
HELP TO RAMP UP A 50+ KT LLJ MON EVENING. THE NOSE OF IT WILL BE
NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE JET
STREAK WILL RESIDE. WE WILL STILL HAVE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA HERE THROUGH CENTERED AROUND 06Z. ML CAPES
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD UP AROUND 1500 J/KG OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WHICH USUALLY INDICATES A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT NIGHT. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT A
MAINLY WIND THREAT. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT THE CAPE IN THE
-10 TO -30C LAYER IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO A BIG THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A BIGGER THREAT /PLEASE SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW/.
THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWFA TUE MORNING...SHUTTING OFF POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS. WE WILL SEE SOME POSSIBLE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/SRN FLANK
OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVE OVER THE NRN COUNTIES TUE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
NO REAL IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. THE FOURTH OF JULY LOOKS DRY
AND COOL. THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH IS SLOWER IN ARRIVING THAN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING YESTERDAY AS CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CENTRAL CANADA TAKES A BIT LONGER TO OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. THEN FAIR AND COOL IS THE RULE INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WSW
WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND 15 KNOTS...BUT
WILL DIMINISH 23-01Z.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER UPPER WAVE THAT COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE TIME FRAME ON THIS
SHOULD BE FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 15Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE COULD
ALSO BE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WITH THIS WAVE IN THE SAME TIME
FRAME. BREEZY SSW WINDS WILL RESUME 11-12Z AND CONTINUE INTO MID
DAY MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
WINDS AND WAVES CAME UP THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES WERE GENERALLY IN THE
2-4 FOOT RANGE...BUT FOR A TIME THEY BUILT TO AROUND 4 FEET. HELD
OFF ON A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...AS THE WAVES ARE FORECAST TO
TAPER BACK INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THE CORE OF THE HIGHER WAVES OCCURRED BEFORE THE MAIN
BEACH TIME. ALSO...WHERE THE HIGHEST WAVES WERE/ARE OCCURRING
DENSE FOG IS PLAGUING THE BEACHES KEEPING BEACH POPULATION DOWN.
LUDINGTON BUOY IS CURRENTLY UNDER 4 FEET WITH PORT SHELDON UNDER 3
FEET. BOTTOM LINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...EXPECTING
SOUTHWEST 15-20 KNOT WINDS WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WAVES IN THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE. A MODERATE SWIM HAZARD RISK THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
ISSUED A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM HOLLAND NORTH. HIGHER DEW
POINT AIR IS ADVECTING OVER THE COOLER MID LAKE WATERS AND
AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. RAN THIS ADVISORY
THROUGH 10AM TOMORROW AS CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT.
WE MAY MIX A LITTLE DRIER AIR INTO THE ENVIRONMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT...BUT IT
SHOULD FOG BACK IN TONIGHT IF IT LIFTS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OCCUR ON MONDAY
NIGHT. WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
TODAY...HOWEVER THEY WILL COME IN EARLY ENOUGH THAT A LACK OF
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THEIR STRENGTH. SOME LOCAL HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER IT SHOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD
PROBLEM.
THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONG FORCING AND A FAIR
AMOUNT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES BY
MON NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN TO BE LIKELY. HEAVIEST RAIN
TOTALS LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO WHERE THE MOISTURE
AND FORCING COINCIDE MUCH BETTER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ846>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1233 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WE WILL SEE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL COME MONDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONG FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL FACTORS COMBINE TO LOWER THE THREAT FOR STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASED INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
SHOWERS AND A COOLER WIND DRIVING INLAND OFF THE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. ALSO...DEEPER MOISTURE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
SWEEPING EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
ON THE UPSIDE HOWEVER IS A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE VORT SWEEPING EASTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THESE FEATURES WILL BE PRESSING INTO SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE WILL BE THAT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MODULATED BY A FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
HAVE SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST...30 PCT...TO COVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS AT THIS POINT. BUT...WITH HRRR SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE SHOWING THE FORECAST AREA DRY ALL THE WAY INTO
THE EVENING THINKING WE MAY STAY DRY. VERY LOW CHANCE POP SEEMS TO
BE THE WAY TO GO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST REMAINS ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE ARE LOOKING AT DECENT THREATS OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS
MORNING AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PCPN POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WI AND IL EARLY
THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THERE HAVE BEEN
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORMED ACROSS OUR NW SECTIONS THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OUR
WAY. THE MAIN BAND OF PCPN HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD...HOWEVER
IT WILL HAVE A SOLID PUSH FROM A SHORT WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL IA. IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
ALSO. WE DO THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME MEASURABLE RAIN FROM
THIS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT REALLY A CONCERN WITH THIS BAND AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS NON-EXISTENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STILL RELATIVELY
WEAK AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. THIS BAND COULD RE-IGNITE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS BETTER INSTABILITY. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE WELL
EAST OF OUR AREA...SO IT IS NOT REALLY A CONCERN AT THIS TIME. WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER/STORM POPPING THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WE
WILL BE UNDER SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.
WE SHOULD SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PCPN FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL SEE SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH A 30+ KNOT LLJ
THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA MON MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A
THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY INITIALLY TO WORK WITH.
THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ON MON AFTERNOON ONCE ANY
INITIAL PCPN DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
WE SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT CAPPED BY AFTERNOON THAT WILL REMAIN THE
CASE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IF WE GET SOME KIND OF BOUNDARY
TO DEVELOP /I.E. LAKE BREEZE/SHADOW...ETC.../ WE COULD POP A STORM.
THE MUCH BETTER CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME MON NIGHT AFTER
SUNSET. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IS ROTATING A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND AROUND THE UNDERSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WAVE AND JET STREAK TO OUR NORTH WILL
HELP TO RAMP UP A 50+ KT LLJ MON EVENING. THE NOSE OF IT WILL BE
NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE JET
STREAK WILL RESIDE. WE WILL STILL HAVE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA HERE THROUGH CENTERED AROUND 06Z. ML CAPES
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD UP AROUND 1500 J/KG OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WHICH USUALLY INDICATES A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT NIGHT. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT A
MAINLY WIND THREAT. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT THE CAPE IN THE
-10 TO -30C LAYER IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO A BIG THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A BIGGER THREAT /PLEASE SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW/.
THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWFA TUE MORNING...SHUTTING OFF POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS. WE WILL SEE SOME POSSIBLE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/SRN FLANK
OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVE OVER THE NRN COUNTIES TUE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
NO REAL IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. THE FOURTH OF JULY LOOKS DRY
AND COOL. THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH IS SLOWER IN ARRIVING THAN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING YESTERDAY AS CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CENTRAL CANADA TAKES A BIT LONGER TO OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. THEN FAIR AND COOL IS THE RULE INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING BUT THERE ARE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AROUND WITH BASES AROUND 1000 TO 2000 FEET AGL. A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
WINDS AND WAVES CAME UP THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES WERE GENERALLY IN THE
2-4 FOOT RANGE...BUT FOR A TIME THEY BUILT TO AROUND 4 FEET. HELD
OFF ON A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...AS THE WAVES ARE FORECAST TO
TAPER BACK INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THE CORE OF THE HIGHER WAVES OCCURRED BEFORE THE MAIN
BEACH TIME. ALSO...WHERE THE HIGHEST WAVES WERE/ARE OCCURRING
DENSE FOG IS PLAGUING THE BEACHES KEEPING BEACH POPULATION DOWN.
LUDINGTON BUOY IS CURRENTLY UNDER 4 FEET WITH PORT SHELDON UNDER 3
FEET. BOTTOM LINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...EXPECTING
SOUTHWEST 15-20 KNOT WINDS WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WAVES IN THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE. A MODERATE SWIM HAZARD RISK THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
ISSUED A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM HOLLAND NORTH. HIGHER DEW
POINT AIR IS ADVECTING OVER THE COOLER MID LAKE WATERS AND
AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. RAN THIS ADVISORY
THROUGH 10AM TOMORROW AS CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT.
WE MAY MIX A LITTLE DRIER AIR INTO THE ENVIRONMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT...BUT IT
SHOULD FOG BACK IN TONIGHT IF IT LIFTS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OCCUR ON MONDAY
NIGHT. WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
TODAY...HOWEVER THEY WILL COME IN EARLY ENOUGH THAT A LACK OF
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THEIR STRENGTH. SOME LOCAL HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER IT SHOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD
PROBLEM.
THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONG FORCING AND A FAIR
AMOUNT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES BY
MON NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN TO BE LIKELY. HEAVIEST RAIN
TOTALS LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO WHERE THE MOISTURE
AND FORCING COINCIDE MUCH BETTER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ846>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
751 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP CLOSED LO
JUST SW OF LK WINNIPEG UPSTREAM OF UPR RDG SRETCHING FM HUDSON BAY
INTO THE SE CONUS. VIGOROUS SHRTWV LIFTING NNEWD THRU MN IN THE SLY
FLOW ALF BTWN THESE FEATURES AND ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC OVER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E/PWAT UP TO 1.70 INCHES /175 PCT
OF NORMAL/ IS CAUSING A BAND OF SHOWERS/TS FM WRN LK SUP SWD THRU
WRN UPR MI AND WI. OTHER ISOLD SHRA/TS HAVE FORMED OVER THE SCENTRAL
CWA TO THE E OF THE MAIN LINE OF SHRA/TS WHERE LATEST RUC SHOWS MORE
VIGOROUS H85 THETA E ADVCTN AND ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV IN ADVANCE OF
THE MAIN FEATURE. DESPITE THE RATHER VIGOROUS DYNAMIC FORCING...
FAIRLY SHARP NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN INTO THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS/WEAK DEEP LYR 0-6KM SHEAR GENERALLY NO GREATER THAN
20-25KTS/WEAK DOWNDRAFT CAPE HAS LIMITED THE INTENSITY OF THE TS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHOWER/TS LINE.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS SHORT TERM PACKAGE INCLUDE SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV IN MN EARLY THIS MRNG AND OTHER DISTURBANCES
ROTATING ARND MAIN CLOSED LO IN SRN CANADA.
EARLY THIS MRNG/TODAY...MN SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC ARE PROGGED TO SWING NEWD THRU UPR MI/LK SUP INTO ONTARIO
EARLY THIS AFTN...GIVING WAY TO A PERIOD OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/
MID LVL DRYING. THE LATEST RUC AND THE BULK OF THE OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN WL OCCUR UNDER THE
BETTER FORCING AND CONTRIBUTE TO FALLING MUCAPES IN THE ABSENCE OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS/TS WL TEND TO
DIMINISH AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE NE THRU THE CWA. LIKE THE
AREA OF SHOWERS/TS THAT FORMED OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA EARLIER WELL IN
ADVANCE OF THE LARGER LINE OF SHOWERS...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS/SOME TS
TO DVLP E OF THE LARGER SCALE LINE WHERE H85 THETA E ADVCTN WL BE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON THIS EXPECTATION. ALL OF THESE SHOWERS/TS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NE
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING DYNAMICS THIS AFTN. NEXT CONCERN IS WHETHER
MORE SHRA/TS WL DVLP THIS AFTN WITH THE RETURN OF SOME CLRG
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE AXIS OF LOWER H85 THETA E AND THE
PSBL APRCH OF ANOTHER SHRTWV NOW MOVING E THRU SDAKOTA TO THE S OF
THE CLOSED LO. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF H85 THETA E ADVCTN
REDVLPG LATER TODAY AT A TIME WHEN THIS SHRTWV WL BE APRCHG FM THE
W. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WL BE THE LARGER SCALE DRYING LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS FCST TO DROP PWAT CLOSE
TO AN INCH. WL GO NO HIER THAN LO CHC POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY DESPITE
FCST STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES UP TO 7-7.5C/KM ENHANCED BY DAYTIME
HEATING THAT WL LIFT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FM THE COOLING
INFLUENCE OF LK MI.
TNGT...DISTURBANCE THAT MIGHT CAUSE SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS/TS WL
SHIFT TO THE NE LATER IN THE EVNG. MODELS THEN HINT ANOTHER STRONGER
SHRTWV/AREA OF DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL APRCH LATER AT
NGT. WENT WITH THE HIER POPS OVER THE SE CWA CLOSER TO AXIS OF HIER
H85 THETA E AND WHERE THE 12Z ECMWF CONSISTENT 00Z CNDN MODELS SHOW
THE HIER QPF. SINCE THE BULK OF THE MODELS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR
PERSISTING OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA WITH MEAN H85-5 RH AS LO AS
30-40 PCT...OPTED TO KEEP THESE AREAS DRY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
CLOSE OFF TODAY AND BE NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT OVER LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ON MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE MERGING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER FAR NORTHERN
CANADA MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...IT WILL LEAVE A TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS OVER LAKE WINNIPEG MONDAY MORNING...THERE
LOOKS TO BE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING OF
THESE WAVES HAVE BEEN VARYING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IT
APPEARS ONE WILL SHIFT THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES...ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT. PINNING DOWN THE TIMING/LOCATIONS OF THESE WAVES IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT AND WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY LINGER SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA.
THEN...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST TREND IS FOR THIS WAVE AND
SURFACE TROUGH TO KICK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN (FOLLOWING STORM MOTION AND FORWARD PROPAGATING
CORFIDI VECTORS). WHERE THAT DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL BE THE KEY TO
MONDAY NIGHTS FORECAST AND WITH THE TREND TOWARDS IT BEING FARTHER
SOUTH...HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOME OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING (KEEPING LIKELY VALUES RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND DIMINISHING CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST). ALSO
FOR MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEST HALF WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. HAVE TRENDED WINDS UP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TREND TOWARDS
MORE SUN AND BETTER MIXING INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND HAVE
GUSTS TO 30KTS FOR THE WEST HALF/THIRD. IN ADDITION...WITH THE
TREND TOWARDS BETTER MIXING...THERE ARE INDICATIONS DEWPOINTS COULD
MIX OUT AND FALL LOWER THAN THE LOW/MID 50S CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINT VALUES FROM THE MODELS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR VALUES TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S...BUT THINK A
LOT DEPENDS ON EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION. WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS...MIXING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S WOULD CREATE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS (RH FALLING INTO UPPER 20S
ALTHOUGH THE WEST HAS SEEN THE MOST PRECIP LATELY)...SO WILL NEED TO
WATCH THAT POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT DAY.
BEHIND THE MONDAY EVENING WAVE...SHOULD GET A DRY PERIOD AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BUT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO DIURNAL
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAND AREAS...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO HAVE TRENDED POPS UP
TO HIGH END CHANCES OVER THE AFTERNOON AND ATTEMPTED TO SHOW A RAMP
UP DURING THE MORNING. WITH ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 100-400 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH DIURNAL HEATING LOST...THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SHOWER CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END.
EXPECT A MUCH COOLER PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
(FROM A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS) NOSES EAST INTO THE
AREA. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTOLLING THINGS...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR WED/THURS AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S. WILL
NEED TO WATCH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE TRENDED LOWS DOWN A
LITTLE...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS OUT
WEST APPROACH 40 OR EVEN UPPER 30S.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PULLING OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND THE
HIGH CENTER SHIFTING EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR NO PRECIP ON THE 4TH
OF JULY DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE STILL OVER THE AREA.
THEREFORE...HAVE PULLED THE PRECIPITATION MENTION. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SINCE THE 00Z MODEL
RUNS ARE ONLY SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE...HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN
TO LOW END CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
COMBINATION OF MOIST LLVL FLOW AND BAND OF SHRA THAT WL IMPACT
CMX/SAW THIS MRNG WL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
AT SAW WHERE THE MORE FVRBL SSE UPSLOPE WIND OFF LK MI WL BRING
PREDOMINANT LIFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE HRS. THE BAND OF
SHRA HAS ALREADY MOVED TO THE NE OF IWD...BUT MVFR CIGS WERE OBSVD
AT MOST NEARBY SITES. SO DESPITE DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND...OPTED TO
INCLUDE A MENTION OF AT LEAST TEMPO MVFR CIGS THERE THRU 15Z. THE
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL BRING A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY
AFTN TO ALL THE SITES. WITH DEEP MIXING...EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS UP
TO 25-30 KTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL
-SHRA/PERHAPS A TS LATER THIS AFTN WITH THE APRCH OF ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION ATTM DUE TO EXPECTED
LARGER SCALE DRYING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WL CROSS THE GREAT LKS LATER TNGT...BUT THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN S OF THE FCST POINTS. EXPECT VFR WX TO PREVAIL TNGT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WARM AIR MOVING OVER THE COOL LAKE
SUPERIOR WATERS...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO KEEP WINDS BELOW 25KTS
DURING THIS TIME. THE HUMID AIR WILL ALSO PRODUCE FOG OVER PORTIONS
OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UP TO
20KTS. THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AND LEAD TO WEAKENING WINDS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
425 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP CLOSED LO
JUST SW OF LK WINNIPEG UPSTREAM OF UPR RDG SRETCHING FM HUDSON BAY
INTO THE SE CONUS. VIGOROUS SHRTWV LIFTING NNEWD THRU MN IN THE SLY
FLOW ALF BTWN THESE FEATURES AND ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC OVER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E/PWAT UP TO 1.70 INCHES /175 PCT
OF NORMAL/ IS CAUSING A BAND OF SHOWERS/TS FM WRN LK SUP SWD THRU
WRN UPR MI AND WI. OTHER ISOLD SHRA/TS HAVE FORMED OVER THE SCENTRAL
CWA TO THE E OF THE MAIN LINE OF SHRA/TS WHERE LATEST RUC SHOWS MORE
VIGOROUS H85 THETA E ADVCTN AND ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV IN ADVANCE OF
THE MAIN FEATURE. DESPITE THE RATHER VIGOROUS DYNAMIC FORCING...
FAIRLY SHARP NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN INTO THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS/WEAK DEEP LYR 0-6KM SHEAR GENERALLY NO GREATER THAN
20-25KTS/WEAK DOWNDRAFT CAPE HAS LIMITED THE INTENSITY OF THE TS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHOWER/TS LINE.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS SHORT TERM PACKAGE INCLUDE SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV IN MN EARLY THIS MRNG AND OTHER DISTURBANCES
ROTATING ARND MAIN CLOSED LO IN SRN CANADA.
EARLY THIS MRNG/TODAY...MN SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC ARE PROGGED TO SWING NEWD THRU UPR MI/LK SUP INTO ONTARIO
EARLY THIS AFTN...GIVING WAY TO A PERIOD OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/
MID LVL DRYING. THE LATEST RUC AND THE BULK OF THE OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN WL OCCUR UNDER THE
BETTER FORCING AND CONTRIBUTE TO FALLING MUCAPES IN THE ABSENCE OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS/TS WL TEND TO
DIMINISH AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE NE THRU THE CWA. LIKE THE
AREA OF SHOWERS/TS THAT FORMED OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA EARLIER WELL IN
ADVANCE OF THE LARGER LINE OF SHOWERS...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS/SOME TS
TO DVLP E OF THE LARGER SCALE LINE WHERE H85 THETA E ADVCTN WL BE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON THIS EXPECTATION. ALL OF THESE SHOWERS/TS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NE
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING DYNAMICS THIS AFTN. NEXT CONCERN IS WHETHER
MORE SHRA/TS WL DVLP THIS AFTN WITH THE RETURN OF SOME CLRG
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE AXIS OF LOWER H85 THETA E AND THE
PSBL APRCH OF ANOTHER SHRTWV NOW MOVING E THRU SDAKOTA TO THE S OF
THE CLOSED LO. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF H85 THETA E ADVCTN
REDVLPG LATER TODAY AT A TIME WHEN THIS SHRTWV WL BE APRCHG FM THE
W. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WL BE THE LARGER SCALE DRYING LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS FCST TO DROP PWAT CLOSE
TO AN INCH. WL GO NO HIER THAN LO CHC POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY DESPITE
FCST STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES UP TO 7-7.5C/KM ENHANCED BY DAYTIME
HEATING THAT WL LIFT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FM THE COOLING
INFLUENCE OF LK MI.
TNGT...DISTURBANCE THAT MIGHT CAUSE SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS/TS WL
SHIFT TO THE NE LATER IN THE EVNG. MODELS THEN HINT ANOTHER STRONGER
SHRTWV/AREA OF DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL APRCH LATER AT
NGT. WENT WITH THE HIER POPS OVER THE SE CWA CLOSER TO AXIS OF HIER
H85 THETA E AND WHERE THE 12Z ECMWF CONSISTENT 00Z CNDN MODELS SHOW
THE HIER QPF. SINCE THE BULK OF THE MODELS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR
PERSISTING OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA WITH MEAN H85-5 RH AS LO AS
30-40 PCT...OPTED TO KEEP THESE AREAS DRY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
CLOSE OFF TODAY AND BE NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT OVER LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ON MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE MERGING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER FAR NORTHERN
CANADA MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...IT WILL LEAVE A TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS OVER LAKE WINNIPEG MONDAY MORNING...THERE
LOOKS TO BE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING OF
THESE WAVES HAVE BEEN VARYING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IT
APPEARS ONE WILL SHIFT THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES...ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT. PINNING DOWN THE TIMING/LOCATIONS OF THESE WAVES IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT AND WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY LINGER SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA.
THEN...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST TREND IS FOR THIS WAVE AND
SURFACE TROUGH TO KICK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN (FOLLOWING STORM MOTION AND FORWARD PROPAGATING
CORFIDI VECTORS). WHERE THAT DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL BE THE KEY TO
MONDAY NIGHTS FORECAST AND WITH THE TREND TOWARDS IT BEING FARTHER
SOUTH...HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOME OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING (KEEPING LIKELY VALUES RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND DIMINISHING CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST). ALSO
FOR MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEST HALF WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. HAVE TRENDED WINDS UP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TREND TOWARDS
MORE SUN AND BETTER MIXING INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND HAVE
GUSTS TO 30KTS FOR THE WEST HALF/THIRD. IN ADDITION...WITH THE
TREND TOWARDS BETTER MIXING...THERE ARE INDICATIONS DEWPOINTS COULD
MIX OUT AND FALL LOWER THAN THE LOW/MID 50S CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINT VALUES FROM THE MODELS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR VALUES TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S...BUT THINK A
LOT DEPENDS ON EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION. WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS...MIXING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S WOULD CREATE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS (RH FALLING INTO UPPER 20S
ALTHOUGH THE WEST HAS SEEN THE MOST PRECIP LATELY)...SO WILL NEED TO
WATCH THAT POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT DAY.
BEHIND THE MONDAY EVENING WAVE...SHOULD GET A DRY PERIOD AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BUT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO DIURNAL
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAND AREAS...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO HAVE TRENDED POPS UP
TO HIGH END CHANCES OVER THE AFTERNOON AND ATTEMPTED TO SHOW A RAMP
UP DURING THE MORNING. WITH ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 100-400 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH DIURNAL HEATING LOST...THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SHOWER CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END.
EXPECT A MUCH COOLER PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
(FROM A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS) NOSES EAST INTO THE
AREA. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTOLLING THINGS...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR WED/THURS AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S. WILL
NEED TO WATCH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE TRENDED LOWS DOWN A
LITTLE...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS OUT
WEST APPROACH 40 OR EVEN UPPER 30S.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PULLING OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND THE
HIGH CENTER SHIFTING EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR NO PRECIP ON THE 4TH
OF JULY DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE STILL OVER THE AREA.
THEREFORE...HAVE PULLED THE PRECIPITATION MENTION. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SINCE THE 00Z MODEL
RUNS ARE ONLY SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE...HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN
TO LOW END CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MOVING N JUST TO THE E OF KSAW MAY IMPACT
THAT SITE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TS WILL
AFFECT KIWD AND KCMX EARLY THIS MRNG...BUT THE COVERAGE OF THE TSRA IS
TOO SPARSE TO JUSTIFY A SPECIFIC FCST ATTM FOR THOSE SITES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW OFF LK MICHIGAN SHOULD RESULT IN STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING AT KSAW
FOR A TIME. UNCERTAIN HOW DEVELOPED THIS WILL BE SO PUT THE CIGS
RIGHT AT THRESHOLD FOR ALTERNATE MIN OF 600 FT. COULD EASILY BE BLO
THAT GIVEN THIS PATTERN BUT NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN ON THIS.
EVENTUALLY SHRA/TSRA WILL WORK EAST OUT OF THE TERMINALS BY LATER
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOMING MORE SWRLY WILL ALLOW ANY FOG/STRATUS
AT KSAW TO DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY. AFTN SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET THOUGH
WILL SEE INCREASING SW WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY OVER 25 KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KIWD AND KSAW. NEXT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVES ON SUNDAY EVENING.
BETTER CHANCES MAY HOLD OFF TIL AFT 06Z SO KEPT OUT OF TAFS ATTM.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WARM AIR MOVING OVER THE COOL LAKE
SUPERIOR WATERS...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO KEEP WINDS BELOW 25KTS
DURING THIS TIME. THE HUMID AIR WILL ALSO PRODUCE FOG OVER PORTIONS
OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UP TO
20KTS. THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AND LEAD TO WEAKENING WINDS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA/KC
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1234 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014
SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW
CIRCULATION OVER THE BISMARK AREA...WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
INITIATE ALONG A LINE FROM GENERALLY FARGO...THROUGH THE BRAINERD
AREA...AND WESTERN TWIN CITIES METRO. LATEST RUC MESO- ANALYSIS
DEPICTS THE DEVELOPING STORMS ARE ALONG AN AXIS OF INCREASING ML
CAPE/ERODING CIN...ALONG WITH STRONG SHEAR. EXPECT THIS LINE OF
STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EAST. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT SITUATION AND SUGGESTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE OF
STORMS REACHES THE AREAS OF KINL...TO KHIB...AND EXTENDS SOUTH
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 00Z...BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVER MUCH
OF THE DLH CWA BY 03Z.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR THESE STORMS REMAINS HEAVY DOWNPOURS/LOCALIZED
FLOODING...POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS/WIND DAMAGE...AND A POSSIBLE
TORNADO. THERE IS A MINIMAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO FREEZING
LEVELS AROUND 14 KFT
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014
A STACKED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO
SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INVERTED SFC
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SRN MN INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA...WHICH WILL
CLIP SECTIONS OF NW WI WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LATE TUE
THROUGH THUR...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP
OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER
80S...BUT A COOL DOWN IS LIKELY TUE AND WED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ARRIVES LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THUR AND FRI.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE RISING BACK INTO THE 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
A BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE HYR VCNTY BY 09Z LEAVING SOME BR
BEHIND WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR WAS
OCCURRING OVER THE TERMINALS IN WAA AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
WESTERN MN AT 03Z. SOME PATCHY BR WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE TERMINALS.
EXPECT THIS FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID MORNING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCT STORMS WILLAFFECT ALL TERMINALS BUT BRD
THROUGH 00Z...THEN DIMINISHING BY 03Z. VFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL
OCCUR UNTIL DRY AIR ARRIVES AFTER 03Z THEN VFR IS EXPECTED. GUSTY
SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST JUST AFTER 12Z AND WILL LAST UNTIL SUNSET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 60 75 55 65 / 20 20 30 40
INL 62 72 53 63 / 50 70 50 40
BRD 62 79 57 70 / 10 30 40 30
HYR 63 81 57 69 / 30 40 20 40
ASX 61 81 56 68 / 30 30 30 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ140>143.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...CLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1113 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWED A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH THE NE/IA BORDER. A FEW EMBEDDED VORTICITY
MAXIMA WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST AND PROVIDE
UPPER LEVEL ASCENT NEEDED FOR SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED WARM FRONT WAS
LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN...AS EVIDENT BY THE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AND SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH LOW 60 DEWPOINTS ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE FRONT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LED TO A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING NORTHWEST MN DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA.
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF CONVECTION SHOW
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOPAUSE...SO LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF DEEP LAYER DIRECTION SHEAR. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN SPEED
WITHIN THE LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE RESULTED IN 15 TO 25KTS
OF 1KM SHEAR. MLCAPE WAS 1500 TO 2000J/KG...WHILE THE 0-3KM CAPE
AROUND 50J/KG. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM CDT. THE HIRES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CONVECTION WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING AS IT
CROSSES INTO WESTERN WI AND OUTRUNS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...BUT IN
THE MEAN TIME A FEW STRONG WINDS COULD MIX DOWN WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIP CORES...SO FEEL THAT DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
LOW LCLS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO...BUT AT THIS TIME
HODOGRAPHS WOULD NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.
THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS
IN IS WAKE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL APPROACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE WEST OF THE CWA. THIS
DRY SLOT IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES
NEAR 3000J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
TO AROUND 50KTS...BUT THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHICH IS BETTER TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS IOWA. THEREFORE WE STILL HAVE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THE STORMS ARE ABLE
TO FIRE IN SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN. IF THEY DO...EXPECT THEM TO QUICKLY
TURN SEVERE...WITH HIGH END SEVERE POSSIBLE...MEANING HAIL OVER 2
INCHES...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75MPH. AS OF NOW...THE BEST CHANCE
IS IN SOUTHEASTERN MN...GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM FAIRMONT MN
THROUGH MANKATO MN TO RED WING MN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014
LONG TERM ANALYSIS/FORECASTING CUT SHORT TODAY WITH BOTH
FORECASTERS FOCUSED ON SHORT TERM DUTIES. OVERALL...THE LONG TERM
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MASSIVE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
THE FA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONG WESTERLIES EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TO MUCH OF THE CONVECTION BY THE
TIME SUNDAY NIGHT ARRIVES WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN FA. SOME BRIEF DRYING WILL OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT...BUT A
SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WESTERN WI BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THE
SOUTHERN ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGIN
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH SIMILAR HIGHS AND YET ANOTHER THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AS THE FINAL SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH. THURSDAY IS OUR
ONLY SOLID DRY DAY BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY
ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN FROM THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY (4TH OF
JULY) AND SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014
WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF WESTERN WI...THE TAF SITES
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN VFR TONIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG
GIVEN THE RAIN LAST NIGHT...BUT THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS AND
LINGERING BREEZES SHOULD KEEP THE FOG IN CHECK. THERE IS AN AREA
OF NEWLY DEVELOPED SHOWERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN /AT 04Z/ THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...THE HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW.
KMSP...
THERE ARE A FEW SMALL POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS LEFT OVER FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER...VAST MAJORITY OF AIRPORTS ARE VFR. ONE
NEW AREA OF CONCERN IS A DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN THAT HAS GROWN IN SIZE AND SHIFTED E-NE FROM
0350-0410Z. WE`RE NOT SURE HOW LONG THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER...BUT
COULD EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE AIRPORT AROUND 06-07Z IF THEY DO. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THUNDER IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
TOMORROW...BUT LOOKS...MUCH...MUCH BETTER SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT /OR
EVEN SOUTH OF MN FOR THAT MATTER/. WINDS INCREASE NICELY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA AND MVFR. WINDS SW 15KTS.
TUE...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS AND SCT SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW 15-20KTS.
WED...VFR/MVFR. -SHRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS NW 10-20KTS
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
345 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.DISSCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE MID SOUTH HAS FINALLY
SHIFTED EAST...BUT THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST
ZONES. SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY. THE RUC CARRIED RAIN INTO THE NIGHT
AND EXTENDED INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOCAL WRF AND THE
REST OF THE MODELS KEPT THE ACTIVITY NORTH. THE GFS CAME IN WITH LOW
POPS FOR THE CWA TONIGHT. BASED ON WHAT`S HAPPENING...DECIDED TO
STICK WITH GUIDANCE. WENT WITH A PRE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP THE MENTION
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO END WITH THE LOSS OF THE SUN.
GUIDANCE SEEMED GOOD. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWER 70S
WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100 OR
THE LOWER 100S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GOOD SUBSIDENCE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL HANG AROUND. DRY CONDITIONS HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT DROP INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING SMALL RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA.
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE AREA WILL GET A SHORT BREAK FROM
THE RAIN...BUT THE HEAT WILL RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING TODAY WITH LESS CONVECTION
AROUND TO AFFECT TAF SITES. THAT BEING SAID...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR(KGLH/KGWO/KGTR). THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG...AGAIN REDUCING
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES TO IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES...ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED TOWARDS DAY BREAK MONDAY MORNING. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
LIGHT TO CALM AT MOST SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. /28/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 71 94 73 95 / 4 3 4 7
MERIDIAN 70 96 69 98 / 4 14 4 7
VICKSBURG 71 92 71 94 / 3 3 4 8
HATTIESBURG 72 95 72 96 / 4 11 9 8
NATCHEZ 73 90 72 92 / 4 3 7 6
GREENVILLE 75 93 73 95 / 5 3 4 9
GREENWOOD 73 93 72 95 / 6 4 4 8
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
07/28/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1058 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
ADJUSTED THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE. ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS IN THE NORTH.
CONVECTION HAS NOT STARTED AND MAY NEED ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS TO GET GOING. THE LOCAL WRF SHOWS SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHEAST. THE RUC IS SIMILAR TO THE OTHER
MODELS...KEEPING THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH. CONTINUING TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE SOUTH OF THE COMPLEX OVER TN/AR.
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATER
TODAY AND PUSH EVERYTHING OUT OF THE AREA. OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS
THE FORECAST WAS GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION...MOST LOCATIONS ARE SEEING MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE AND
THIS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE DAY AND
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CONVECTION AROUND TO AFFECT TAF SITES. THAT
BEING SAID...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR(KGLH/KGWO/KGTR).
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. LOW STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG...AGAIN REDUCING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES TO IFR/MVFR
CATEGORIES...ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TOWARDS DAY BREAK MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS AND
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM AT MOST SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. /28/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 92 73 94 73 / 21 6 3 4
MERIDIAN 93 71 95 69 / 23 8 14 4
VICKSBURG 91 72 93 71 / 20 5 3 4
HATTIESBURG 93 74 96 73 / 16 5 11 9
NATCHEZ 90 73 92 73 / 10 4 3 7
GREENVILLE 91 74 94 74 / 35 7 3 4
GREENWOOD 91 73 95 72 / 36 8 4 4
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
7/28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1022 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
Line of thunderstorms have entered the far northern part of the
CWA late this evening just ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorms
will continue to move southeast tonight as the cold front moves
southeast across the area. The latest runs of the RAP shows that
low level convergence will weaken along the front at the same time
that a vort max moves east into the Great Lakes. HRRR composite
reflectivity goes along well with going forecast showing a gradual
decrease in areal coverage in the thunderstorms overnight as the
front moves south tonight. Otherwise rest of the forecast still
looks good.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
Some places reaching heat indices of 100-105 this afternoon due to
warm temperatures around 90 degrees and very high surface dew points
in the middle to upper 70s. The heat advisory will continue in
effect for the St Louis metro area into the early evening hours.
With a capped atmosphere and little if any forcing, not getting the
typical diurnal isolated to scattered showers/storms this afternoon
across our forecast area. Convection is expected to continue to
develop across IA and northwest MO and eventually shift
southeastward into northeast MO and west central IL early this
evening as a shortwave and cold front along with outflow boundaries
ahead of the front approach and help to break the cap and provide a
surface focus for convection. Due to the extreme instability along
with sufficient low-mid level wind shear, damaging winds along with
large hail and isolated tornadoes are possible with these storms
this evening across northeast MO and west central IL. Went with a
compromise between the faster NCEP 4 km WRF and the slower HRRR
model for the precipitation forecast. A broken line of convection
is expected to drop southeastward through northeast MO and west
central IL early this evening. This line of convection should
gradually weaken later this evening and into the overnight hours as
it moves into central MO and southwest IL, although maybe not as
fast as the HRRR model depicts. Slightly cooler low temperatures
are expected tonight compared to last night across northeast MO and
west central IL behind the southeastward moving cold front.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
(Tuesday)
Cooler day is in store for Tuesday as initial cold front should clear the
southern extent of the CWA by Tuesday morning. Drier air with dewpoints
filtering down into the 60s is also expected. Chances of showers and storms
are forecast to be confined to southeastern Missouri where a shortwave
will round the base of an amplifying longwave trough and interact with sagging
frontal boundary/baroclinic zone. Rest of forecast area is expected to remain
dry with highs about 3-7F cooler than today but it will feel quite a bit
better than today due to dewpoints also lowering.
Secondary cold front should slip by the area overnight Tuesday night and
is expected to pass through dry. Main impact this frontal boundary will
bring is that it will usher in the start of some unseasonably cool and dry
weather.
(Wednesday - Friday)
The Wednesday through Friday time period will be characterized by much
cooler than normal temperatures accompanied by unseasonably low dewpoints.
Look for temperatures to be some 10 to near 15 degrees below normal day
and night. This results in highs in the 70s with lows in the 50s...not too
unlike what was observed early in July of last year. Lows on Thursday
morning...and to a lesser degree Friday morning...may even approach record
minimums for the date. All in all...a beautiful and pleasant 4th of July
looks to be in store for the bi-state region.
(Saturday - Monday)
Surface ridge and associated anticyclone will slowly move off to the east
with upper-level heights also on the rise. This will result in a
moderation in temperatures as well as a climb in dewpoints/humidity levels.
The process will be slow and gradual however leading to comfortable levels
of temps/humidities thanks to persistent dry/cool low-level flow around
Great Lakes. More typical summertime temperatures and dewpoints look to
hold off until Monday.
Next chance of precipitation in the form of showers and thunderstorms will
be Saturday night through Sunday as a shortwave travels around the periphery
of upper-level high across the desert southwest.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
Warm moist unstable continues over much of Missouri early this
evening over region. Small area of scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms over north central Missouri will move into the
Quincy area after 0300 UTC. Second band of scattered thunderstorms
extend over northwest Missouri is associated with the first of two
cold fronts. The southern end of the second band of thunderstorms
will move through the Quincy after 0400 UTC. Strong inversion
noted on Topeka KS sounding at 1800 UTC is showing itself as
convection has problems developing further southwest of St. Joseph
Missouri. Will continue with VCTS for COU and STL for later this
evening.
Specifics for KSTL: Winds of 15 kts with gusts of 25 kts will
continue into early evening hours and then weaken to 12-15 kts
after 0200 UTC. Expecting VCTS for STL after 0500 UTC. Local wind
gusts of 30 kts possible in thunderstorms. First of two cold
frontal boundaries expected to move across STL after 0800 UTC with
second frontal boundary moving through after 2000 UTC.
RP
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
709 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
Some places reaching heat indices of 100-105 this afternoon due to
warm temperatures around 90 degrees and very high surface dew points
in the middle to upper 70s. The heat advisory will continue in
effect for the St Louis metro area into the early evening hours.
With a capped atmosphere and little if any forcing, not getting the
typical diurnal isolated to scattered showers/storms this afternoon
across our forecast area. Convection is expected to continue to
develop across IA and northwest MO and eventually shift
southeastward into northeast MO and west central IL early this
evening as a shortwave and cold front along with outflow boundaries
ahead of the front approach and help to break the cap and provide a
surface focus for convection. Due to the extreme instability along
with sufficient low-mid level wind shear, damaging winds along with
large hail and isolated tornadoes are possible with these storms
this evening across northeast MO and west central IL. Went with a
compromise between the faster NCEP 4 km WRF and the slower HRRR
model for the precipitation forecast. A broken line of convection
is expected to drop southeastward through northeast MO and west
central IL early this evening. This line of convection should
gradually weaken later this evening and into the overnight hours as
it moves into central MO and southwest IL, although maybe not as
fast as the HRRR model depicts. Slightly cooler low temperatures
are expected tonight compared to last night across northeast MO and
west central IL behind the southeastward moving cold front.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
(Tuesday)
Cooler day is in store for Tuesday as initial cold front should clear the
southern extent of the CWA by Tuesday morning. Drier air with dewpoints
filtering down into the 60s is also expected. Chances of showers and storms
are forecast to be confined to southeastern Missouri where a shortwave
will round the base of an amplifying longwave trough and interact with sagging
frontal boundary/baroclinic zone. Rest of forecast area is expected to remain
dry with highs about 3-7F cooler than today but it will feel quite a bit
better than today due to dewpoints also lowering.
Secondary cold front should slip by the area overnight Tuesday night and
is expected to pass through dry. Main impact this frontal boundary will
bring is that it will usher in the start of some unseasonably cool and dry
weather.
(Wednesday - Friday)
The Wednesday through Friday time period will be characterized by much
cooler than normal temperatures accompanied by unseasonably low dewpoints.
Look for temperatures to be some 10 to near 15 degrees below normal day
and night. This results in highs in the 70s with lows in the 50s...not too
unlike what was observed early in July of last year. Lows on Thursday
morning...and to a lesser degree Friday morning...may even approach record
minimums for the date. All in all...a beautiful and pleasant 4th of July
looks to be in store for the bi-state region.
(Saturday - Monday)
Surface ridge and associated anticyclone will slowly move off to the east
with upper-level heights also on the rise. This will result in a
moderation in temperatures as well as a climb in dewpoints/humidity levels.
The process will be slow and gradual however leading to comfortable levels
of temps/humidities thanks to persistent dry/cool low-level flow around
Great Lakes. More typical summertime temperatures and dewpoints look to
hold off until Monday.
Next chance of precipitation in the form of showers and thunderstorms will
be Saturday night through Sunday as a shortwave travels around the periphery
of upper-level high across the desert southwest.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
Warm moist unstable continues over much of Missouri early this
evening over region. Small area of scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms over north central Missouri will move into the
Quincy area after 0300 UTC. Second band of scattered thunderstorms
extend over northwest Missouri is associated with the first of two
cold fronts. The southern end of the second band of thunderstorms
will move through the Qunicy after 0400 UTC. Strong inversion
noted on Topeka KS sounding at 1800 UTC is showing itself as
convection has problems developing further southwest of St. Joseph
Missouri. Will continue with VCTS for COU and STL for later this
evening.
Specifics for KSTL: Winds of 15 kts with gusts of 25 kts will
continue into early evening hours and then weaken to 12-15 kts
after 0200 UTC. Expecting VCTS for STL after 0500 UTC. Local wind
gusts of 30 kts possible in thunderstorms. First of two cold
frontal boundaries expected to move across STL after 0800 UTC with
second frontal boundary moving through after 2000 UTC.
RP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 73 87 66 78 / 40 10 10 10
Quincy 67 83 60 71 / 60 10 10 10
Columbia 71 83 60 75 / 40 10 5 5
Jefferson City 72 84 62 76 / 50 20 10 5
Salem 73 86 65 79 / 30 20 20 10
Farmington 72 86 64 80 / 30 30 20 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR St. Charles MO-St.
Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR Madison IL-St.
Clair IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1151 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 925 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014
Line of storms has moved into eastern Missouri and has split into
two, with scattered storms now concentrated over northeast and
southeast Missouri. These storms will continue to move east this
evening and out of the area by just after midnight. Latest runs of
RAP still shows some low level moisture convergence lingering
over the southern half of Missouri overnight, so will keep chance
of showers/storms going over the southern half of the CWA the
rest of the night.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014
Scattered showers and storms have developed this afternoon, mainly
across central and northeast MO into west central IL, due to diurnal
heating and destabilization. Although most of this current activity
will dissipate by sunset, a more organized band of showers and
storms is expected to translate eastward through our forecast area
the evening into the overnight hours. This convection is ahead of a
shortwave trough currently extending across eastern portions of
Nebraska and Kansas. The HRRR model moves this band of convection
eastward into central MO just after 7 pm, then into the St Louis
metro area by late evening. There may be some strong wind gusts
with these storms across northeast and central MO. The convection
may gradually weaken late this evening and overnight as it shifts
eastward through the St Louis metro area. Low temperatures will be
similar to last night, generally in the lower 70s.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014
Overall, it appears that the unsettled weather trend will continue
across the region heading into the start of the new week. Trying to
pin down these periodic storm chances remain the primary forecast
concern.
For Sunday, forecast will reflect the thinking that tonight`s
convection should be exiting southeast sections of the CWA on Sunday
morning; however, if tonight`s complex is quicker than expected,
then these morning PoPs may be too high. Once this activity exits,
then the question is whether there will be any redevelopment as AMS
destabilizes during the afternoon. Short range guidance based off of
12z UA data does suggest several very weak ripples in the flow that
will impact the area during the afternoon during max heating,
but they are also indicating warming mid level temps along and west
of the Mississippi River that may tend to cap any surface based
redevelopment. GFS and GEM are a bit more bullish on the increase
of 7h temps over central MO, so have left forecast dry in this area
with slight chance/low chance PoPs elsewhere.
Intense convection is expected to blossom over the mid-Missouri
Valley Sunday afternoon in the very unstable airmass near the
surface boundary and ahead of the next shortwave, with this activity
quickly growing upscale into a convective complex that will then
work into the mid-Mississippi Valley during the overnight hours.
While there is still uncertainly on the exact location of storm
genesis, all storm propagation vectors from the various 12z
solutions have a fairly pronounced southerly component which
suggests complex try to build into our CWA with time. Based on
this, I`ve tried to be fairly generous with the southward expansion
of PoPs and have taken mention of thunder to the I44 corridor in
MO/I70 corridor in IL by 12z Monday.
Remnants of Sunday nights convection will exit Monday morning, and
then there should be a bit of a lull before the third round of
convection sweeps across the region (primarily on Monday night) as
main cold front and associated shortwave move into the region and
interact with the very unstable airmass. Depending upon the amount
of cloud cover, Monday should certainly be one of the warmest day so
far this summer with 850MB temps of 20-22C and gusty southwest
winds, and have maintained going highs in the low-mid 90s over all
but our far NW counties.
Medium range output continues to suggest below average temperatures,
and unusually low summertime humidities, for the first several days
of July. Guidance remains in good agreement that axis of atypically
deep mid level trof will work into the Great Lakes region, bringing
relatively cool and dry air into the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Several shortwaves rotating through the trof will track across the
region at the same time, which will likely mean a continuation of
some shower and thunderstorm threat in the Tuesday-Wednesday time
frame, mainly over southern sections of the CWA where dynamics will
have the best chance to interact with the lower level
baroclinicity.
Right now it looks like more typical temps/humidity levels will be
returning by the Fourth of July weekend as upper trof works east and
ridging expands from the Rockies into the central CONUS. Rain
chances look to be quite low in the Thursday-Saturday time
frame.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014
TSRA will continue to move ewd thru the region overnight. With a
very unstable airmass in place, spotty storms will continue to
develop and may impact terminals overnight. However, due to the
unorganized nature of these storms and no system to focus on,
storms may impact terminals with minimal lead time. FG may
develop at UIN/COU later tonight. However, believe wind may
prevent development. Believe MVFR cigs shud develop shortly after
sunrise and persist thru the mid morning hours. These cigs shud
gradually break up by mid day. Winds will remain sly to swly and
back Sun evening to esely.
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
356 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN.
AFTER MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ROLLED THROUGH PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA...ATMOSPHERE HAD STABILIZED FOR A TIME INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS EVAPORATED...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 80S MANY SPOTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND SOME COOLING ALOFT HAS
PRODUCED SURFACE-BASED CAPES EXCEEDING 3500 J/KG. 18Z SOUNDING AT
KOAX SHOWED 3692 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE WITH ALMOST NO
INHIBITION. LAYER SHEAR...0-6KM...WAS 34KT...AND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. HOWEVER OUR 18Z SOUNDING SHOWS
LIFTING A MIXED-LAYER PARCEL YIELDS ONLY 1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND
INHIBITION RUNNING OVER 100. THUS MAY HAVE TO WAIT A WHILE BEFORE
CINH GOES AWAY AND HIGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED. A FEW AREAS OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION WERE NOTED AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT NONE ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF GROWING AT THE MOMENT. MOST LIKELY AREA OF
INITIATION FOR MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE
SETTING UP FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE COLUMBUS...FREMONT AND
MISSOURI VALLEY AREAS. ENHANCED CUMULUS FIELD WAS STARTING TO EXPAND
HERE...WITH WEAK AREA OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS PER RAP 19Z
INITIALIZATION. OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM MORNING
STORMS COULD ALSO FOCUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE STORMS DO FIRE
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT RAPID DEVELOPMENT TOWARD STRONG/SEVERE
LEVELS IN HIGH INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. ORIENTATION OF LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS SUGGEST SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SUGGEST MCS DEVELOPMENT
WITH PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT A HAIL AND
TORNADO THREAT WITH EARLY CONVECTION...THEN EVOLVING INTO A
HAIL...WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING.
EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA BY LATE
EVENING. THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ROLLING OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE LIFT OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN IOWA MONDAY MORNING.
LINGERING HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES POINT TO A
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY STORMS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SLOW-
MOVING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIMP SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH WAVES RIPPLING
ALONG FRONT POINT TO REPEATED DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
UNTIL FRONT CLEARS OUR SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY.
AFTER FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE OUR DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THEN A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN ENHANCED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS OMAHA. THESE
SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND END AT SUNSET. TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER
AS 850 TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS...THEN EVEN COOLER
WEDNESDAY WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MANY HIGHS BOTH DAYS
SHOULD HOLD IN THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY INTO THURSDAY...TAKING STORM TRACK TO OUR
NORTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ONLY SLOWLY RECOVERING 850
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW 80 THEN. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
ROLL INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME STORMS FIRE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL FIREWORKS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GFS SHOWS SYSTEM EXITING TO THE SOUTH
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE MAY BE A BIT FAST. THUS WILL CONTINUE
SMALL RAIN CHANCES INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS TAF CYCLE. LIFR
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO TAKE PLACE INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. DID
INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS AT BOTH KOMA AND KLNK. DID LEAVE
THE MENTION OUT AT KOFK AS UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
255 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY. COOL WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CONVECTION CHANCES TO HEADLINE
THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
OF POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS UNDERGONE STRONG DESTABILIZATION...WITH THE OPERATIONAL RAP AND
LATEST LAPS DATA GENERATING UPWARDS OF 3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH OPTIMAL DEEP SHEAR
IN PLACE...STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS...ARE ANTICIPATED TO FORM.
A SIGNIFICANT -10 TO -30C CONTRIBUTION TO THE CAPE /CLOSING ON A
1000 J/KG/ WOULD SUPPORT SOME LARGE HAIL. THE LATEST NEAR TERM
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS GENERATES THE PROJECTED ACTIVITY WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA...BUT RECENT SATELLITE OBS INDICATE OTHERWISE
WITH THE FORMATION OF A AGITATED CU FIELD ACROSS CUSTER COUNTY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS. WEST OF THIS
AREA...INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE CAPE DECREASES RAPIDLY...ONLY
ISOLATED GENERAL STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...INCREASINGLY RICH THETA-E BUILDS BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF A LLJ. THE THREAT OF STORMS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S ACROSS THE EAST.
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR MONDAY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY. HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD PREVAIL. LINGERING POST FRONTAL STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A REINFORCING CANADIAN COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PRECEDING PACIFIC COLD FRONT SUPPORTS
LOWS IN THE 50S TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE ABOUT 5F
COLDER FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR COOLER LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THE MODELS SHOW 850MB-700MB CLOUDS WRAPPING
SOUTH AROUND A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS ONTARIO.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE IN PLACE TUESDAY WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT. H700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 6C TO 10C AND HIGHS RISE TO ONLY
70 NORTH. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ALSO.
THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES OFF EAST WEDNESDAY FOR HIGHS 75 TO 80 WITH
NEARLY FULL SUN AND LIGHT WINDS...A COMPLETE REVERSE OF TUESDAYS
WIND...CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT PRODUCING 20 TO 25 MPH SLY RETURN FLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE WARMING TREND IS SLOWER GIVEN THE STRONGER PUSH OF
CANADIAN AIR TUESDAY FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THE
ECM...GFS AND GEM MODELS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IF WINDS ALOFT
CAN REMAIN STRONG AS SHOWN THE GEM AND GFS SOLNS THEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THURSDAY
AND BEYOND. THE ECM BUILDS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRONGLY
PRODUCING WEAK WINDS ALOFT. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS AND
INCLUDES ISOLATED POPS WHICH FITS THE CLASSIC JULY NORTHWEST FLOW
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
PREVAILING VFR IS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER STORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING ERRATIC WIND...ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET FORMS ATOP THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME...SO
WILL FORGO A MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL TAFS FOR VTN AND LBF WITH THE
18Z ISSUANCE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND LONGWAVE RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND THEN NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 75KTS
NEAR 34000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE
LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS...MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES REGION LATER TODAY. A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA WHICH SHOULD INCREASE INTENSITY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THIS LOW MAY BEGIN TO MAKE A PUSH EAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW DOES THE SAME. AS A RESULT...THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE SAME
POSITION TODAY INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE
PERHAPS SNEAKING INTO OUR FAR WEST/NORTHWESTERN CWA TOWARDS
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD
ACROSS OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS OUR FAR
WEST/NORTHWEST WHICH COULD TURN MORE NORTHERLY TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY
IF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CAN MOVE AS FAR EAST AS CURRENTLY INDICATED
BY GUIDANCE.
FOR THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS ALONG THE AXIS OF A ~40KT
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALTHOUGH OFF BY A FEW HOURS...SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE HRRR
HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION AND SUGGESTS IT WILL
PROPAGATE NORTHEAST SOME LATER THIS MORNING AND IMPACT SEVERAL OF
OUR KANSAS COUNTIES. THE HRRR...4KM WRF-NMM...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE 1KM WRF-NMM...ALSO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE REALIZED OVER WESTERN OR CENTRAL NEBRASKA
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS SHIFTS
NORTHEAST MORE INTO OUR AREA. QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SEEM OVERDONE...BUT MANY OF THEM ALSO
INDICATE ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING...WITH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 0.25" ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA 12-18Z TODAY. FAR TOO MANY INDICATIONS OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO IGNORE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS TO WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY BE REALIZED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
UNTIL 15Z. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS WILL
DECREASE IN INTENSITY POST SUNRISE AND AS A RESULT...CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA 15-21Z. THAT BEING SAID...THIS WILL ALL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THIS MORNING...WITH AN INCREASE IN
POPS LIKELY NEEDED IF/WHEN CONVECTION IS REALIZED OVER THE
AREA...AND A TEMPORAL INCREASE IN POPS PAST 15Z POSSIBLY NEEDED IF
CONVECTION MANAGES TO LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SUGGEST ANY MORNING
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE ROOTED TO AROUND 700MB AND
LIKELY ONLY HAVE ~500J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY TO WORK WITH. GIVEN
THIS...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH MORNING
CONVECTION.
ONCE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS DIMINISHES LASTER THIS
MORNING...THERE REALLY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING MECHANISMS ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE
AND LIFT ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...BUT
AGAIN THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE ON MONDAY. ALSO...THERE COULD BE A SUBTLE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION TRAVELING WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW WHICH
COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED OMEGA OVER THE AREA...BUT AGAIN
GUIDANCE DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY SUBSTANTIAL SIGNAL OF THIS
OCCURRING. FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS DO SUGGEST HOWEVER...IF FULL DIABATIC HEATING IS
ACHIEVED TODAY...THAT NEARLY ALL CIN COULD BE ERASED BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE
REACHED...PRIMARILY THROUGH LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. FARTHER
WEST...THESE SAME FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARMER
TEMPERATURE READINGS NEAR 700MB AND RESULTANT HIGHER CIN VALUES
WILL MAKE CONVECTIVE INITIATION MORE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE. AS
ALREADY MENTIONED HOWEVER...FULL DIABATIC HEATING WOULD LIKELY
NEED TO BE ACHIEVED TO MEET CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS
FARTHER EAST...AND THERE IS A CHANCE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
FROM MORNING CONVECTION COULD PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS. ITS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM SHOWS NOTHING OVER OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT BEING SAID...QPF FIELDS FROM
MULTIPLE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO SUGGEST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN CWA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS ACROSS THE
CWA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID NOT GO ANY
HIGHER THAN A ~20% POP FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CIN VALUES...BUT FARTHER EAST WHERE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
ACHIEVED...WENT AHEAD WITH 30-40% POPS ACROSS THE AREA. A COUPLE
IMPORTANT NOTES...THESE POPS WILL PROVE TO BE WELL OVERDONE IF
MORNING CONVECTION PROVIDES TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPTIATION. BUT...IF SO MUCH AS ONE STORM CAN FIRE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTANT OUTFLOW COULD RESULT IN MULTIPLE
STORMS INITIATING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING THUS RESULTING
IN A POP FORECAST WHICH IS UNDERDONE. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS UNLIKELY
WELL KNOW THE ANSWER UNTIL STORMS DO (OR DO NOT) INITIATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT CLOSE EVALUATION OF THE
SITUATION WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
HIGH VOLATILITY OF THE TROPOSPHERE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENHANCED
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL HELP PROMOTE 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES
OF 2000-4000J/KG ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ENERGY EXISTING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
40-50KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DEEP
CONVECTION THAT IS REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-1KM SRH
VALUES DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE PER THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS...BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF/WHEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
INTRODUCED ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...WILL ALSO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POST-SUNSET TONIGHT
AS DIABATIC HEATING IS LOST. THAT BEING SAID...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
40-45KT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND NOSE INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THEN POSSIBLE HEADING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH
20-40% POPS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE ROOTED TO AROUND
800MB AND HAVE ~2000J/KG OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.
GIVEN THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE A MENTION OF LARGE HAIL IN
THE HWO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
ALOFT: A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFING NEXT WEEK
AND THIS MEANS A BREAK FROM A DRENCHING JUNE THAT HAS PUT A
SIGNIFICANT DENT IN THE DROUGHT OVER S-CNTRL NEB. JUNE HAS BEEN A
VERY WET MONTH DUE TO PERSISTENT BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN
USA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT /PNS/ POSTED ON
OUR WEBSITE FOR WHERE GRI/HSI RANK FOR THE WETTEST JUNE`S ON
RECORD. GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MULTI-DAY 500 MB MEANS FOR DAYS 1-5
AND THEN 6-10 INDICATE A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WRN N
AMERICA...FORCING LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION. THE MEAN TROF WILL
PROGRESS E INTO THE CNTRL USA THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE ERN USA BY DAY 6. WHILE HIGH TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN HOT...A
COOLDOWN IS SLATED TUE-THU WITH WED BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
FCST WITH HIGHS MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL /AT LEAST 10F/. BY NEXT
WEEKEND A SPELL OF SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL ARRIVE.
AS FOR THE SHORTWAVES...THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS ESSENTIALLY TRAPPED UNTIL AMPLIFICATION
BEGINS. THIS LOW WILL MAKE A LOOP TODAY-MON AND THEN OPEN UP AND
HEAD E TUE AS THE WRN RIDGE BUILDS. A TRAILING TROF WILL SLIP THRU
THE CNTRL PLAINS TUE. NW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN ITS WAKE WED-
THU WITH RISING HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE MOVES E. A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
IS THEN FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
SURFACE: THE STALLED FRONT THAT CURRENTLY BISECTS NEB FROM SW-NE
WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU DAYBREAK MON. IT WILL BECOME MOBILE THOUGH
MON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND IT SHOULD BE JUST S AND E OF THE
FCST AREA BY SUNSET. A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU
TUE AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES SURGES S INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
WED. AS IT HEADS INTO THE ERN USA THU-FRI...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH A NEW LEE-SIDE TROF. THIS SETUP WILL CONT INTO SAT.
A 40-30-30 BLEND OF THE 12Z/18Z/00Z CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR WIND GUSTS...DEWPOINTS AND QPF...AND HIGH
TEMPS TUE- THU. CONSENSUS OF 00Z MOS WAS USED FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS/DIR.
HAZARDS: TSTMS WILL BE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NEB MON
MORNING. MUCAPE IS FCST AS HIGH AS 4000 J/KG WITH 40-50 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE STORMS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE ELEVATED. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR DO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE HAIL. THE REST OF THE WEEK...NOTHING UNTIL POSSIBLE TSTM
ACTIVITY RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE FRI NIGHT-SAT.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
MON: SREF QPF PROBABILITIES OFFER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AN MCS
WILL BE ON-GOING TO START THE DAY OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB.
THIS MCS WILL DEPART TO THE E. AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY THE COLD POOL
SHOULD SEE A PRETTY NICE DAY /S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES/. RESIDUAL
CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE MCS COULD SPOIL MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE
TRI-CITIES N AND E. BREEZY N WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.
TUE: SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT MON NIGHT. WHILE MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND S OF I-70...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE SOME ANVIL RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER COULD CREEP
INTO OUR N-CNTRL KS COUNTIES. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS COULD
SPREAD SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AS FAR N AS HWY 6 DURING THE DAY
TUE.
THE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW DIURNAL SHWRS N
OF I-80. BREEZY OVER S-CNTRL NEB.
WED: SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT WONDERFULLY REFRESHING. THIS
WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO TURN OFF THE A/C AND LET SOME FRESH AIR
INSIDE. 850 MB TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FCST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL ON THE SREF/GFS ENSEMBLES. THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
GEM OFFER HIGHS 65-75F. THE 00Z RUNS OF GEM AND GFS OFFER 70F FOR
A HIGH AT GRI. IF THAT OCCURS...WED WOULD BE ONE OF THE TOP 5
COOLEST JULY 2ND`S ON RECORD. THE LAST 3 CYCLES OF MEX MOS HAS
DROPPED HIGHS AT GRI FROM 83 TO 78 TO 73. COORDINATED WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS.
WE MAY NEED TO ADD A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF SHWR IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER S-CNTRL NEB. THE 12Z/00Z EC STILL HAVE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR HEALTHY CU AND POTENTIAL SHWR ACTIVITY.
THU: THE TEMP RECOVERY BEGINS...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL. STILL A VERY NICE DAY. RETURN FLOW BEGINS ADVECTING
THE POOL OF RICH MOISTURE BACK N IN ADVANCE OF THE LEE TROF.
FRI: BREEZY AND WARMER WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL /85-90F/.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: WE START FLIRTING WITH NIGHTTIME TSTM INITIATION
AND MCS ACTIVITY. SAT IS LOOKING HOT AWAY FROM ANY TSTM COOL POOLS
AND CLOUD DEBRIS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT MOST OF THEM SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL AREA SO WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1228 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD INTO THE OZARKS. LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW EXTENDED WEST
TO THE PACIFIC COAST...WHILE EAST OF THE LOW...A RIDGE EXTENDED
UP THE EASTERN CONUS INTO SRN HUDSON BAY. WV IMAGERY AS OF 230 AM
CDT...HAS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SWRN MANITOBA WITH A NICE
SHORTWAVE OVER NRN SD...WITH CONVECTION NOTED OVER FAR NRN
NEBRASKA AND THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ADDTL SUPPORT FOR
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LIES WITH A NICE JET
STREAK...VISIBLE ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH INTO
NERN NEBRASKA...THEN SW INTO SWRN NEBRASKA...OR ROUGHLY ALONG A
LINE FROM WATERTOWN SOUTH DAKOTA...TO ONEILL NEBRASKA...TO JUST
WEST OF MCCOOK NEBRASKA. VERY MOIST AIR WAS PRESENT EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WEST OF THE FEATURE...DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES AS
OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 61 AT THEDFORD AND VALENTINE...TO 66 AT
BROKEN BOW...OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS. FOR TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING. AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE LATEST HRRR MODEL...DOES LINGER SOME
CONVECTION IN EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE
MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE
HRRR IS TOO SLOW WITH PCPN EXITING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL END PCPN IN THE EAST BY MID
MORNING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE INVOF OF THE BEFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH. ATTM...AM EXPECTING THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE LITTLE
TODAY...SO LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM O`NEILL TO EAST
OF NORTH PLATTE...WILL BE UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS....ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE CAPES WILL REACH 3000 TO 4000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
ATTM...LARGE HAIL SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA PER DECENT CAPES IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FURTHER WEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE CAPE DECREASES QUICKLY...SO
ONLY A GENERAL THREAT FOR STORMS EXISTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 80S IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WHERE BL MOISTURE IS
GREATEST...TO AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE DRIER BL CONDS
EXIST. FOR TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE LATEST NAM SOLN...REGENERATES
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT INVOF THE NOSE OF AN
H85 LLJET AND WILL INCLUDE THIS FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 183. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE
WEST TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN THE EAST. THESE WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN GUIDANCE...TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
COOLER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY. LINGERING
POST FRONTAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY OVER
EASTERN ZONES. BY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WELL TO THE EAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...POSSIBLY MID 80S IN
FAR SW NEB. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TO RADIATE
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES AROUND AN ONTARIO LOW
FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND EVEN SOME
SHOWERS. THE ADDED CLOUDS WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND FOR TEMPS THE LAST 3
RUNS...ALTHOUGH DID NOT DROP AS FAR AS LATEST GUIDANCE CAME IN
WITH. IF SKIES BECOME CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...EVEN WITH AN EARLY JULY HIGH SUN ANGLE...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM TO CURRENT FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S WITH DEW PTS AROUND 60.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST IS DRY FOR NOW
WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWER TO RETURN.
LL JET THURSDAY WILL HELP TO INCREASE MID TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER
INCLUSION ON THE NOSE OF THE JET. BETTER SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL CAUSE NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING SE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS
THE TREND FROM JUNE CONTINUES INTO JULY...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
RISE...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SEASONAL
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
PREVAILING VFR IS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER STORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING ERRATIC WIND...ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET FORMS ATOP THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME...SO
WILL FORGO A MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL TAFS FOR VTN AND LBF WITH THE
18Z ISSUANCE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
650 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD INTO THE OZARKS. LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW EXTENDED WEST
TO THE PACIFIC COAST...WHILE EAST OF THE LOW...A RIDGE EXTENDED
UP THE EASTERN CONUS INTO SRN HUDSON BAY. WV IMAGERY AS OF 230 AM
CDT...HAS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SWRN MANITOBA WITH A NICE
SHORTWAVE OVER NRN SD...WITH CONVECTION NOTED OVER FAR NRN
NEBRASKA AND THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ADDTL SUPPORT FOR
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LIES WITH A NICE JET
STREAK...VISIBLE ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH INTO
NERN NEBRASKA...THEN SW INTO SWRN NEBRASKA...OR ROUGHLY ALONG A
LINE FROM WATERTOWN SOUTH DAKOTA...TO ONEILL NEBRASKA...TO JUST
WEST OF MCCOOK NEBRASKA. VERY MOIST AIR WAS PRESENT EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WEST OF THE FEATURE...DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES AS
OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 61 AT THEDFORD AND VALENTINE...TO 66 AT
BROKEN BOW...OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS. FOR TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING. AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE LATEST HRRR MODEL...DOES LINGER SOME
CONVECTION IN EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE
MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE
HRRR IS TOO SLOW WITH PCPN EXITING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL END PCPN IN THE EAST BY MID
MORNING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE INVOF OF THE BEFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH. ATTM...AM EXPECTING THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE LITTLE
TODAY...SO LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM O`NEILL TO EAST
OF NORTH PLATTE...WILL BE UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS....ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE CAPES WILL REACH 3000 TO 4000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
ATTM...LARGE HAIL SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA PER DECENT CAPES IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FURTHER WEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE CAPE DECREASES QUICKLY...SO
ONLY A GENERAL THREAT FOR STORMS EXISTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 80S IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WHERE BL MOISTURE IS
GREATEST...TO AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE DRIER BL CONDS
EXIST. FOR TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE LATEST NAM SOLN...REGENERATES
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT INVOF THE NOSE OF AN
H85 LLJET AND WILL INCLUDE THIS FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 183. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE
WEST TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN THE EAST. THESE WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN GUIDANCE...TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
COOLER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY. LINGERING
POST FRONTAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY OVER
EASTERN ZONES. BY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WELL TO THE EAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...POSSIBLY MID 80S IN
FAR SW NEB. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TO RADIATE
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES AROUND AN ONTARIO LOW
FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND EVEN SOME
SHOWERS. THE ADDED CLOUDS WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND FOR TEMPS THE LAST 3
RUNS...ALTHOUGH DID NOT DROP AS FAR AS LATEST GUIDANCE CAME IN
WITH. IF SKIES BECOME CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...EVEN WITH AN EARLY JULY HIGH SUN ANGLE...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM TO CURRENT FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S WITH DEW PTS AROUND 60.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST IS DRY FOR NOW
WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWER TO RETURN.
LL JET THURSDAY WILL HELP TO INCREASE MID TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER
INCLUSION ON THE NOSE OF THE JET. BETTER SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL CAUSE NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING SE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS
THE TREND FROM JUNE CONTINUES INTO JULY...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
RISE...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SEASONAL
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...CIGS AON 3000 FT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE LIFTING BY 16Z. THERE AFTER...EXPECT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS RANGING FROM 15000 TO 25000 FT AGL. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND 12000 FT AGL WILL
LIFT TO 25000 FT AGL BY MID MORNING. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDINESS AON 7000 FT AGL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. WITH SUNDOWN...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS RANGING FROM 12000
TO 25000 FT AGL. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
THIS EVENING AT BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WITH SPARSE
COVERAGE EXPECTED...WILL FORGO MENTION OF TSRAS IN THE 12Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
541 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND LONGWAVE RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND THEN NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 75KTS
NEAR 34000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE
LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS...MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES REGION LATER TODAY. A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA WHICH SHOULD INCREASE INTENSITY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THIS LOW MAY BEGIN TO MAKE A PUSH EAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW DOES THE SAME. AS A RESULT...THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE SAME
POSITION TODAY INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE
PERHAPS SNEAKING INTO OUR FAR WEST/NORTHWESTERN CWA TOWARDS
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD
ACROSS OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS OUR FAR
WEST/NORTHWEST WHICH COULD TURN MORE NORTHERLY TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY
IF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CAN MOVE AS FAR EAST AS CURRENTLY INDICATED
BY GUIDANCE.
FOR THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS ALONG THE AXIS OF A ~40KT
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALTHOUGH OFF BY A FEW HOURS...SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE HRRR
HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION AND SUGGESTS IT WILL
PROPAGATE NORTHEAST SOME LATER THIS MORNING AND IMPACT SEVERAL OF
OUR KANSAS COUNTIES. THE HRRR...4KM WRF-NMM...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE 1KM WRF-NMM...ALSO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE REALIZED OVER WESTERN OR CENTRAL NEBRASKA
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS SHIFTS
NORTHEAST MORE INTO OUR AREA. QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SEEM OVERDONE...BUT MANY OF THEM ALSO
INDICATE ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING...WITH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 0.25" ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA 12-18Z TODAY. FAR TOO MANY INDICATIONS OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO IGNORE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS TO WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY BE REALIZED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
UNTIL 15Z. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS WILL
DECREASE IN INTENSITY POST SUNRISE AND AS A RESULT...CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA 15-21Z. THAT BEING SAID...THIS WILL ALL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THIS MORNING...WITH AN INCREASE IN
POPS LIKELY NEEDED IF/WHEN CONVECTION IS REALIZED OVER THE
AREA...AND A TEMPORAL INCREASE IN POPS PAST 15Z POSSIBLY NEEDED IF
CONVECTION MANAGES TO LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SUGGEST ANY MORNING
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE ROOTED TO AROUND 700MB AND
LIKELY ONLY HAVE ~500J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY TO WORK WITH. GIVEN
THIS...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH MORNING
CONVECTION.
ONCE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS DIMINISHES LASTER THIS
MORNING...THERE REALLY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING MECHANISMS ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE
AND LIFT ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...BUT
AGAIN THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE ON MONDAY. ALSO...THERE COULD BE A SUBTLE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION TRAVELING WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW WHICH
COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED OMEGA OVER THE AREA...BUT AGAIN
GUIDANCE DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY SUBSTANTIAL SIGNAL OF THIS
OCCURRING. FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS DO SUGGEST HOWEVER...IF FULL DIABATIC HEATING IS
ACHIEVED TODAY...THAT NEARLY ALL CIN COULD BE ERASED BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE
REACHED...PRIMARILY THROUGH LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. FARTHER
WEST...THESE SAME FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARMER
TEMPERATURE READINGS NEAR 700MB AND RESULTANT HIGHER CIN VALUES
WILL MAKE CONVECTIVE INITIATION MORE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE. AS
ALREADY MENTIONED HOWEVER...FULL DIABATIC HEATING WOULD LIKELY
NEED TO BE ACHIEVED TO MEET CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS
FARTHER EAST...AND THERE IS A CHANCE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
FROM MORNING CONVECTION COULD PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS. ITS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM SHOWS NOTHING OVER OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT BEING SAID...QPF FIELDS FROM
MULTIPLE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO SUGGEST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN CWA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS ACROSS THE
CWA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID NOT GO ANY
HIGHER THAN A ~20% POP FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CIN VALUES...BUT FARTHER EAST WHERE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
ACHIEVED...WENT AHEAD WITH 30-40% POPS ACROSS THE AREA. A COUPLE
IMPORTANT NOTES...THESE POPS WILL PROVE TO BE WELL OVERDONE IF
MORNING CONVECTION PROVIDES TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPTIATION. BUT...IF SO MUCH AS ONE STORM CAN FIRE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTANT OUTFLOW COULD RESULT IN MULTIPLE
STORMS INITIATING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING THUS RESULTING
IN A POP FORECAST WHICH IS UNDERDONE. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS UNLIKELY
WELL KNOW THE ANSWER UNTIL STORMS DO (OR DO NOT) INITIATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT CLOSE EVALUATION OF THE
SITUATION WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
HIGH VOLATILITY OF THE TROPOSPHERE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENHANCED
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL HELP PROMOTE 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES
OF 2000-4000J/KG ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ENERGY EXISTING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
40-50KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DEEP
CONVECTION THAT IS REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-1KM SRH
VALUES DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE PER THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS...BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF/WHEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
INTRODUCED ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...WILL ALSO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POST-SUNSET TONIGHT
AS DIABATIC HEATING IS LOST. THAT BEING SAID...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
40-45KT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND NOSE INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THEN POSSIBLE HEADING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH
20-40% POPS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE ROOTED TO AROUND
800MB AND HAVE ~2000J/KG OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.
GIVEN THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE A MENTION OF LARGE HAIL IN
THE HWO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
ALOFT: A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFING NEXT WEEK
AND THIS MEANS A BREAK FROM A DRENCHING JUNE THAT HAS PUT A
SIGNIFICANT DENT IN THE DROUGHT OVER S-CNTRL NEB. JUNE HAS BEEN A
VERY WET MONTH DUE TO PERSISTENT BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN
USA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT /PNS/ POSTED ON
OUR WEBSITE FOR WHERE GRI/HSI RANK FOR THE WETTEST JUNE`S ON
RECORD. GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MULTI-DAY 500 MB MEANS FOR DAYS 1-5
AND THEN 6-10 INDICATE A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WRN N
AMERICA...FORCING LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION. THE MEAN TROF WILL
PROGRESS E INTO THE CNTRL USA THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE ERN USA BY DAY 6. WHILE HIGH TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN HOT...A
COOLDOWN IS SLATED TUE-THU WITH WED BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
FCST WITH HIGHS MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL /AT LEAST 10F/. BY NEXT
WEEKEND A SPELL OF SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL ARRIVE.
AS FOR THE SHORTWAVES...THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS ESSENTIALLY TRAPPED UNTIL AMPLIFICATION
BEGINS. THIS LOW WILL MAKE A LOOP TODAY-MON AND THEN OPEN UP AND
HEAD E TUE AS THE WRN RIDGE BUILDS. A TRAILING TROF WILL SLIP THRU
THE CNTRL PLAINS TUE. NW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN ITS WAKE WED-
THU WITH RISING HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE MOVES E. A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
IS THEN FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
SURFACE: THE STALLED FRONT THAT CURRENTLY BISECTS NEB FROM SW-NE
WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU DAYBREAK MON. IT WILL BECOME MOBILE THOUGH
MON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND IT SHOULD BE JUST S AND E OF THE
FCST AREA BY SUNSET. A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU
TUE AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES SURGES S INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
WED. AS IT HEADS INTO THE ERN USA THU-FRI...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH A NEW LEE-SIDE TROF. THIS SETUP WILL CONT INTO SAT.
A 40-30-30 BLEND OF THE 12Z/18Z/00Z CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR WIND GUSTS...DEWPOINTS AND QPF...AND HIGH
TEMPS TUE- THU. CONSENSUS OF 00Z MOS WAS USED FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS/DIR.
HAZARDS: TSTMS WILL BE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NEB MON
MORNING. MUCAPE IS FCST AS HIGH AS 4000 J/KG WITH 40-50 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE STORMS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE ELEVATED. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR DO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE HAIL. THE REST OF THE WEEK...NOTHING UNTIL POSSIBLE TSTM
ACTIVITY RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE FRI NIGHT-SAT.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
MON: SREF QPF PROBABILITIES OFFER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AN MCS
WILL BE ON-GOING TO START THE DAY OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB.
THIS MCS WILL DEPART TO THE E. AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY THE COLD POOL
SHOULD SEE A PRETTY NICE DAY /S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES/. RESIDUAL
CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE MCS COULD SPOIL MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE
TRI-CITIES N AND E. BREEZY N WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.
TUE: SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT MON NIGHT. WHILE MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND S OF I-70...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE SOME ANVIL RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER COULD CREEP
INTO OUR N-CNTRL KS COUNTIES. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS COULD
SPREAD SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AS FAR N AS HWY 6 DURING THE DAY
TUE.
THE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW DIURNAL SHWRS N
OF I-80. BREEZY OVER S-CNTRL NEB.
WED: SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT WONDERFULLY REFRESHING. THIS
WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO TURN OFF THE A/C AND LET SOME FRESH AIR
INSIDE. 850 MB TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FCST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL ON THE SREF/GFS ENSEMBLES. THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
GEM OFFER HIGHS 65-75F. THE 00Z RUNS OF GEM AND GFS OFFER 70F FOR
A HIGH AT GRI. IF THAT OCCURS...WED WOULD BE ONE OF THE TOP 5
COOLEST JULY 2ND`S ON RECORD. THE LAST 3 CYCLES OF MEX MOS HAS
DROPPED HIGHS AT GRI FROM 83 TO 78 TO 73. COORDINATED WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS.
WE MAY NEED TO ADD A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF SHWR IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER S-CNTRL NEB. THE 12Z/00Z EC STILL HAVE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR HEALTHY CU AND POTENTIAL SHWR ACTIVITY.
THU: THE TEMP RECOVERY BEGINS...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL. STILL A VERY NICE DAY. RETURN FLOW BEGINS ADVECTING
THE POOL OF RICH MOISTURE BACK N IN ADVANCE OF THE LEE TROF.
FRI: BREEZY AND WARMER WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL /85-90F/.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: WE START FLIRTING WITH NIGHTTIME TSTM INITIATION
AND MCS ACTIVITY. SAT IS LOOKING HOT AWAY FROM ANY TSTM COOL POOLS
AND CLOUD DEBRIS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNTIL 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE
EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS EXPECTED.
UNFORTUNATELY THE CEILING HAS DROPPED MUCH LOWER THAN GUIDANCE WAS
FORECASTING EARLIER THIS MORNING. AN IFR CEILING...GENERALLY
BETWEEN 600 AND 900FT AGL...IS BEING OBSERVED GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM EAR TO HJH. THIS STRATUS IS ADVANCING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND IT NOW APPEARS LIKELY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED AT GRI FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. INCREASING DIABATIC
HEATING AND A RESULTANT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER HEIGHT AND
MIXING POST-SUNRISE SHOULD HELP THE STRATUS LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY
14Z. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNINGS STRATUS...WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE TAF UNTIL 14Z.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED AT GRI IS TOO LOW FOR INSERTION INTO THE
TAF AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST TODAY...GENERALLY SUSTAINED AT 09-12KTS. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
402 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND LONGWAVE RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND THEN NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 75KTS
NEAR 34000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE
LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS...MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES REGION LATER TODAY. A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA WHICH SHOULD INCREASE INTENSITY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THIS LOW MAY BEGIN TO MAKE A PUSH EAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW DOES THE SAME. AS A RESULT...THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE SAME
POSITION TODAY INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE
PERHAPS SNEAKING INTO OUR FAR WEST/NORTHWESTERN CWA TOWARDS
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD
ACROSS OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS OUR FAR
WEST/NORTHWEST WHICH COULD TURN MORE NORTHERLY TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY
IF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CAN MOVE AS FAR EAST AS CURRENTLY INDICATED
BY GUIDANCE.
FOR THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS ALONG THE AXIS OF A ~40KT
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALTHOUGH OFF BY A FEW HOURS...SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE HRRR
HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION AND SUGGESTS IT WILL
PROPAGATE NORTHEAST SOME LATER THIS MORNING AND IMPACT SEVERAL OF
OUR KANSAS COUNTIES. THE HRRR...4KM WRF-NMM...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE 1KM WRF-NMM...ALSO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE REALIZED OVER WESTERN OR CENTRAL NEBRASKA
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS SHIFTS
NORTHEAST MORE INTO OUR AREA. QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SEEM OVERDONE...BUT MANY OF THEM ALSO
INDICATE ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING...WITH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 0.25" ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA 12-18Z TODAY. FAR TOO MANY INDICATIONS OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO IGNORE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS TO WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY BE REALIZED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
UNTIL 15Z. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS WILL
DECREASE IN INTENSITY POST SUNRISE AND AS A RESULT...CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA 15-21Z. THAT BEING SAID...THIS WILL ALL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THIS MORNING...WITH AN INCREASE IN
POPS LIKELY NEEDED IF/WHEN CONVECTION IS REALIZED OVER THE
AREA...AND A TEMPORAL INCREASE IN POPS PAST 15Z POSSIBLY NEEDED IF
CONVECTION MANAGES TO LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SUGGEST ANY MORNING
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE ROOTED TO AROUND 700MB AND
LIKELY ONLY HAVE ~500J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY TO WORK WITH. GIVEN
THIS...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH MORNING
CONVECTION.
ONCE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS DIMINISHES LASTER THIS
MORNING...THERE REALLY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING MECHANISMS ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE
AND LIFT ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...BUT
AGAIN THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE ON MONDAY. ALSO...THERE COULD BE A SUBTLE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION TRAVELING WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW WHICH
COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED OMEGA OVER THE AREA...BUT AGAIN
GUIDANCE DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY SUBSTANTIAL SIGNAL OF THIS
OCCURRING. FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS DO SUGGEST HOWEVER...IF FULL DIABATIC HEATING IS
ACHIEVED TODAY...THAT NEARLY ALL CIN COULD BE ERASED BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE
REACHED...PRIMARILY THROUGH LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. FARTHER
WEST...THESE SAME FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARMER
TEMPERATURE READINGS NEAR 700MB AND RESULTANT HIGHER CIN VALUES
WILL MAKE CONVECTIVE INITIATION MORE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE. AS
ALREADY MENTIONED HOWEVER...FULL DIABATIC HEATING WOULD LIKELY
NEED TO BE ACHIEVED TO MEET CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS
FARTHER EAST...AND THERE IS A CHANCE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
FROM MORNING CONVECTION COULD PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS. ITS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM SHOWS NOTHING OVER OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT BEING SAID...QPF FIELDS FROM
MULTIPLE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO SUGGEST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN CWA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS ACROSS THE
CWA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID NOT GO ANY
HIGHER THAN A ~20% POP FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CIN VALUES...BUT FARTHER EAST WHERE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
ACHIEVED...WENT AHEAD WITH 30-40% POPS ACROSS THE AREA. A COUPLE
IMPORTANT NOTES...THESE POPS WILL PROVE TO BE WELL OVERDONE IF
MORNING CONVECTION PROVIDES TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPTIATION. BUT...IF SO MUCH AS ONE STORM CAN FIRE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTANT OUTFLOW COULD RESULT IN MULTIPLE
STORMS INITIATING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING THUS RESULTING
IN A POP FORECAST WHICH IS UNDERDONE. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS UNLIKELY
WELL KNOW THE ANSWER UNTIL STORMS DO (OR DO NOT) INITIATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT CLOSE EVALUATION OF THE
SITUATION WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
HIGH VOLATILITY OF THE TROPOSPHERE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENHANCED
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL HELP PROMOTE 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES
OF 2000-4000J/KG ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ENERGY EXISTING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
40-50KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DEEP
CONVECTION THAT IS REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-1KM SRH
VALUES DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE PER THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS...BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF/WHEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
INTRODUCED ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...WILL ALSO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POST-SUNSET TONIGHT
AS DIABATIC HEATING IS LOST. THAT BEING SAID...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
40-45KT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND NOSE INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THEN POSSIBLE HEADING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH
20-40% POPS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE ROOTED TO AROUND
800MB AND HAVE ~2000J/KG OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.
GIVEN THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE A MENTION OF LARGE HAIL IN
THE HWO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
ALOFT: A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFING NEXT WEEK
AND THIS MEANS A BREAK FROM A DRENCHING JUNE THAT HAS PUT A
SIGNIFICANT DENT IN THE DROUGHT OVER S-CNTRL NEB. JUNE HAS BEEN A
VERY WET MONTH DUE TO PERSISTENT BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN
USA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT /PNS/ POSTED ON
OUR WEBSITE FOR WHERE GRI/HSI RANK FOR THE WETTEST JUNE`S ON
RECORD. GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MULTI-DAY 500 MB MEANS FOR DAYS 1-5
AND THEN 6-10 INDICATE A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WRN N
AMERICA...FORCING LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION. THE MEAN TROF WILL
PROGRESS E INTO THE CNTRL USA THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE ERN USA BY DAY 6. WHILE HIGH TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN HOT...A
COOLDOWN IS SLATED TUE-THU WITH WED BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
FCST WITH HIGHS MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL /AT LEAST 10F/. BY NEXT
WEEKEND A SPELL OF SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL ARRIVE.
AS FOR THE SHORTWAVES...THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS ESSENTIALLY TRAPPED UNTIL AMPLIFICATION
BEGINS. THIS LOW WILL MAKE A LOOP TODAY-MON AND THEN OPEN UP AND
HEAD E TUE AS THE WRN RIDGE BUILDS. A TRAILING TROF WILL SLIP THRU
THE CNTRL PLAINS TUE. NW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN ITS WAKE WED-
THU WITH RISING HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE MOVES E. A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
IS THEN FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
SURFACE: THE STALLED FRONT THAT CURRENTLY BISECTS NEB FROM SW-NE
WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU DAYBREAK MON. IT WILL BECOME MOBILE THOUGH
MON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND IT SHOULD BE JUST S AND E OF THE
FCST AREA BY SUNSET. A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU
TUE WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES SURGES S INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
WED. AS IT HEADS INTO THE ERN USA THU-FRI...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH A NEW LEE-SIDE TROF. THIS SETUP WILL CONT INTO SAT.
A 40-30-30 BLEND OF THE 12Z/18Z/00Z CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR WIND GUSTS...DEWPOINTS AND QPF...AND HIGH
TEMPS TUE- THU. CONSENSUS OF 00Z MOS WAS USED FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS/DIR.
HAZARDS: TSTMS WILL BE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NEB MON
MORNING. MUCAPE IS FCST AS HIGH AS 4000 J/KG WITH 40-50 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE STORMS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE ELEVATED. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR DO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE HAIL. THE REST OF THE WEEK...NOTHING UNTIL POSSIBLE TSTM
ACTIVITY RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE FRI NIGHT-SAT.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
MON: SREF QPF PROBABILITIES OFFER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AN MCS
WILL BE ON-GOING TO START THE DAY OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB.
THIS MCS WILL DEPART TO THE E. AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY THE COLD POOL
SHOULD SEE A PRETTY NICE DAY /S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES/. RESIDUAL
CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE MCS COULD SPOIL MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE
TRI- CITIES AN AND E. BREEZY N WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.
TUE: SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT MON NIGHT. WHILE MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND S OF I-70...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE SOME ANVIL RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER COULD CREEP
INTO OUR N- CNTRL KS COUNTIES. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS COULD
SPREAD SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AS FAR N AS HWY 6 DURING THE DAY
TUE.
THE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW DIURNAL SHWRS N
OF I-80. BREEZY OVER S-CNTRL NEB.
WED: SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT WONDERFULLY REFRESHING. THIS
WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO TURN OFF THE A/C AND LET SOME FRESH AIR
INSIDE. 850 MB TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FCST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL ON THE SREF/GFS ENSEMBLES. THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
GEM OFFER HIGHS 65-75F. THE 00Z RUNS OF GEM AND GFS OFFER 70F FOR
A HIGH AT GRI. IF THAT OCCURS...WED WOULD BE ONE OF THE TOP 5
COOLEST JULY 2ND`S ON RECORD. THE LAST 3 CYCLES OF MEX MOS HAS
DROPPED HIGHS AT GRI FROM 83 TO 78 TO 73. COORDINATED WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS.
WE MAY NEED TO ADD A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF SHWR IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER S-CNTRL NEB. THE 12Z/00Z EC STILL HAVE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR HEALTHY CU AND POTENTIAL SHWR ACTIVITY.
THU: THE TEMP RECOVERY BEGINS...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL. STILL A VERY NICE DAY. RETURN FLOW BEGINS ADVECTING
THE POOL OF RICH MOISTURE BACK N IN ADVANCE OF THE LEE TROF.
FRI: BREEZY AND WARMER WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL /85-90F/.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: WE START FLIRTING WITH NIGHTTIME TSTM INITIATION
AND MCS ACTIVITY. SAT IS LOOKING HOT AWAY FROM ANY TSTM COOL POOLS
AND CLOUD DEBRIS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT POSSIBLE
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS OF 05Z...BUT THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG
THE AXIS OF AN INCREASING JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD PROMOTE STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...SO WENT AHEAD AHEAD WITH A SCATTERED CLOUD FIELD NEAR
4000FT AGL STARTING AT 14Z. THAT BEING SAID...ANY DEVELOPING CLOUD
COVER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE TO ENSURE
A CEILING DOES NOT TRY TO DEVELOP AND PERHAPS APPROACH MVFR
LEVELS. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AXIS COULD ALSO PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATER THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE
MAGNITUDE OF WIND SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT JUST STRONG ENOUGH
TO JUSTIFY A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAF 09-14Z.
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF GRI OBSERVING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
INTO THE DAY SUNDAY...SUSTAINED AT 09-12KTS. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WIND IS THEN EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD INTO THE OZARKS. LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW EXTENDED WEST
TO THE PACIFIC COAST...WHILE EAST OF THE LOW...A RIDGE EXTENDED
UP THE EASTERN CONUS INTO SRN HUDSON BAY. WV IMAGERY AS OF 230 AM
CDT...HAS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SWRN MANITOBA WITH A NICE
SHORTWAVE OVER NRN SD...WITH CONVECTION NOTED OVER FAR NRN
NEBRASKA AND THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ADDTL SUPPORT FOR
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LIES WITH A NICE JET
STREAK...VISIBLE ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH INTO
NERN NEBRASKA...THEN SW INTO SWRN NEBRASKA...OR ROUGHLY ALONG A
LINE FROM WATERTOWN SOUTH DAKOTA...TO ONEILL NEBRASKA...TO JUST
WEST OF MCCOOK NEBRASKA. VERY MOIST AIR WAS PRESENT EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WEST OF THE FEATURE...DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES AS
OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 61 AT THEDFORD AND VALENTINE...TO 66 AT
BROKEN BOW...OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS. FOR TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING. AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE LATEST HRRR MODEL...DOES LINGER SOME
CONVECTION IN EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE
MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE
HRRR IS TOO SLOW WITH PCPN EXITING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL END PCPN IN THE EAST BY MID
MORNING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE INVOF OF THE BEFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH. ATTM...AM EXPECTING THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE LITTLE
TODAY...SO LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM O`NEILL TO EAST
OF NORTH PLATTE...WILL BE UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS....ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE CAPES WILL REACH 3000 TO 4000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
ATTM...LARGE HAIL SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA PER DECENT CAPES IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FURTHER WEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE CAPE DECREASES QUICKLY...SO
ONLY A GENERAL THREAT FOR STORMS EXISTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 80S IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WHERE BL MOISTURE IS
GREATEST...TO AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE DRIER BL CONDS
EXIST. FOR TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE LATEST NAM SOLN...REGENERATES
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT INVOF THE NOSE OF AN
H85 LLJET AND WILL INCLUDE THIS FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 183. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE
WEST TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN THE EAST. THESE WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN GUIDANCE...TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
COOLER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY. LINGERING
POST FRONTAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY OVER
EASTERN ZONES. BY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WELL TO THE EAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...POSSIBLY MID 80S IN
FAR SW NEB. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TO RADIATE
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES AROUND AN ONTARIO LOW
FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND EVEN SOME
SHOWERS. THE ADDED CLOUDS WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND FOR TEMPS THE LAST 3
RUNS...ALTHOUGH DID NOT DROP AS FAR AS LATEST GUIDANCE CAME IN
WITH. IF SKIES BECOME CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...EVEN WITH AN EARLY JULY HIGH SUN ANGLE...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM TO CURRENT FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S WITH DEW PTS AROUND 60.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST IS DRY FOR NOW
WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWER TO RETURN.
LL JET THURSDAY WILL HELP TO INCREASE MID TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER
INCLUSION ON THE NOSE OF THE JET. BETTER SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL CAUSE NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING SE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS
THE TREND FROM JUNE CONTINUES INTO JULY...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
RISE...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SEASONAL
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH KONL REPORTING VCTS. LOW LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING MAY SPARK SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA OVER
NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
BECOMING GUSTY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CEILINGS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
TAFS AT KVTN OR KLBF DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1225 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING PRETTY UNLIKELY FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING HOURS. FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES
COULD CATCH A THUNDERSTORM IF THE LINE OVER BOONE COUNTY AT 7 PM
CAN BACK BUILD A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE HAS SOME CUMULUS
FORMING MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF NEBRASKA WITH A FEW
FURTHER WEST AS WELL.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW THE WAVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND THE UPPER WAVE. THE HRRR KEEPS THE
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE 4KM WRF HAS IT A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. BOTH OF THEM KEEP THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST OR NORTHEAST. THE MUCAPE IS MAINLY AROUND 3000 J/KG
SO THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION THERE IS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT THERE TO BE A BREAK DURING THE MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE MORE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE MUCAPE IS OVER 4000 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014
THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING...AND THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUASI-ZONAL...BUT BROADLY CYCLONIC FOR
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OVER
MANITOBA WHILE FLAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WE MAY CATCH THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL JET TOWARD THE NORTHER CWA. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH A BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDE OF 35 TO 45 KTS AND CAPE LIKELY TO BE GREATER THAN 3000
J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE LIKELY AS
DISCREET SUPERCELLS LIKELY FORMING INTO A LINE THAT WILL HELP
PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH WITH ITS OUTFLOW. THIS LOOKS LIKE AN EARLY
SHOW WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS ENCOURAGING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT...AGAIN WITH OUTFLOW
ENCOURAGING A PUSH TO THE SOUTH...PROBABLY ENDING THE CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER BY EARLY TO MID-EVENING. SREF SEVERE PARAMETERS
EXPLODE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WANE QUICKLY BY EVENING. TORNADO
PARAMETERS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...SO AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NOT AS LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. SOME
ELEVATED STORMS COULD POP UP...ESPECIALLY NORTH LATER ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY GONE BY
THEN.
BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH WITH ENOUGH
SINKING AIR TO PREVENT ANY CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH IT
MAY BE A BIT BREEZY...CONSIDERING POTENTIAL HEIGHT
RISES.
WE TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST AND TROUGH
IN THE EAST. WE SEEM TO BE TRANSITIONING TO A WARMER AND DRY PERIOD
AS THE HIGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED...MOSTLY SUPPRESSING RAIN
DEVELOPMENT AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
THAT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH COULD WEAKEN AND
PERHAPS ALLOW SOME WAVES TO AFFECT US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING THE NEXT SHOT AT SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE AID OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT POSSIBLE
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS OF 05Z...BUT THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG
THE AXIS OF AN INCREASING JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD PROMOTE STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...SO WENT AHEAD AHEAD WITH A SCATTERED CLOUD FIELD NEAR
4000FT AGL STARTING AT 14Z. THAT BEING SAID...ANY DEVELOPING CLOUD
COVER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE TO ENSURE
A CEILING DOES NOT TRY TO DEVELOP AND PERHAPS APPROACH MVFR
LEVELS. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AXIS COULD ALSO PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATER THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE
MAGNITUDE OF WIND SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT JUST STRONG ENOUGH
TO JUSTIFY A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAF 09-14Z.
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF GRI OBSERVING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
INTO THE DAY SUNDAY...SUSTAINED AT 09-12KTS. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WIND IS THEN EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1018 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A HOT START TO THE DAY, A COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, SOME WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS. ON THURSDAY, A STORM MOVING INTO NEW JERSEY WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...
IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM TROF SHARPENS AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES INTO NY AND PA. BASED ON OBS TRENDS, HAVE
INCREASED MINS BY A DEGREE OR SO OVERNIGHT TO GENERALLY FORECAST
TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE.
REMOVED 20 POPS IN THE NEAR TERM AS CONVECTION HAS FIZZLED POST
SUNSET AND THERE IS NO TRIGGER IN THE VICINITY.
REST OF GRIDS LOOK FINE. WILL RESEND HEAT ADVISORY IN A MOMENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADARS SHOWS ISLD SHRA POPPING UP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NY AND
NERN PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND
1500 J/KG ACRS C NY AND NC PA. WITH CONTINUED INSOLATION I EXPECT
MIXED LAYER CAPES TO APPRCH 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SFC
BASED CAPES OVER 2500 J/KG. THIS IS NOT FAR OFF FROM THE 12Z NAM
PROJECTIONS. THE 12Z GFS HAS A LITTLE LESS CAPE BUT IT IS IN THE
BALL PARK. THE LARGER SCALE FORCING WAS RATHER WEAK THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL PV LOBE TRACK ACRS
C NY AND NE PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE PASSES E OF NY AND PA
THIS EVENING IN TANDEM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAY/S HEATING. FOR
POPS I RAMP UP TO LOW CHC IN THE HILLS OF C NY BY ARND 21Z. I
ANTICIPATE SOME MTN VALLEY CIRCULATIONS AND OR UPSLOPE WILL AIDE
IN DEVELOPMENT. BUT BY AND LARGE...THE ACVTY WILL REMAIN ISLD FOR
THE MOST PART. WITH DECENT CAPE I WUD NOT SURPRISE THAT WE SEE A
STRG STORM OR TWO. ALL THE ACVTY WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET.
FOR TUESDAY...THERE ARE MULTIPLE HAZARDS TO CONSIDER. FIRST, ISSUED
A HEAT ADVY FOR OUR NRN COUNTIES ALONG THE FINGER LAKES DRAINAGE
AND LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL POOL TO LOWER 70S AND
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING ON SRLY WINDS AND THE GENERAL LOW ELEVATIONS
MAXES SHUD CLIMB ABV 90F. COMPUTED HEAT INDICES TUE AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM 97 TO 102F IN LARGE PARTS OF THESE AREAS.
NEXT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRG TO SVR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH REALLY
BEGINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTS INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BUILDING DURG THE DAY AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SRLY
WINDS...MIXED LAYER CAPES LIKELY WILL EXCEED 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN NE PA WHERE THE LL WINDS ARE LESS
STRONG...DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT LOWER. BUT STILL SEE CAPES ON THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARND 1500 J/KG. IN ADDTN...ALL LARGER SCALE
MODELS SHOW THAT A LOW-LEVEL WAVE WILL RIDE UP THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE LARGE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SC CANADA TUE.
THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE LL WINDS AND AS A RESULT LL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY STRG. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR IS PROJECTED TO BE 20
TO 25 KNOTS TUE AFTERNOON AND UP TO 30 KNOTS TUE EVE. THE 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR IS SIMILAR TO THE 0-1 KM WITH THE 0-6 KM PROJECTED TO
BE ARND 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE SHEAR WILL BE STRGR IN NC NY AND
WEAKER IN NE PA. HENCE SLGHT RISK AREA AS PER SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK
LOOKS ON TRACK HAVING CNTRL NY AND NC PA IN THE SLGHT RISK AREA
TUE/TUE EVE. SINCE THE SHEAR IS STRG IN THE LL/S...ANY ORGANIZED
ACVTY LIKELY WILL BE LINEAR IN NATURE SO A FEW BROKEN LINES AND
EVEN A BOW ECHO IS POSSIBLE. IT DEPENDS ON HOW UNSTBL THE AMS
BECOMES AND IF THE LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL BE STRG ENUF TO FOCUS
THE CONVECTION.
NEXT THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. PWATS APPRCH 2.0 INCHES AND THE LL FLOW IS STRG
ENUF TO BALANCE THE MEAN CLD LAYER WINDS. THUS IF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOW A TENDENCY TO BACK BUILD...INSTEAD OF BEING FORWARD
PROPAGATING...MESO BETA ELEMENT VECTORS ARE SMALL. I COULD SEE A
SCENARIO WHERE WE GET A LINE OR A FEW BROKEN LINES OF STRG TO SVR
STORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/ERLY EVE THAT PROPAGATE FORWARD BUT
TREND TWD BACKWARD PROPAGATION LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE DAY/S
HEATING IS LOST AND STORMS WILL DERIVE INSTABILITY MORE FROM LL
ADVECTION. OUR LOCAL ANALOG SEVERE WEATHER CHECKLIST RETURNED THE
COLCHESTER FLASH FLOOD EVENT OF 2007 AND ALSO ANOTHER EVENT THAT
HAD A SMALLER FLASH FLOOD. BOTH OF THESE EVENTS WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS. FOR NOW HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE WIND AND
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACVTY CONTINUE
UNTIL AT LEAST LATE EVENING...BUT DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT
OF THE CONVECTION IT CUD LAST EVEN LONGER SO KEPT POPS GOING THRU
THE OVERNIGHT TO WED AM. THE FRONTAL BNDRY THAT PRESSES E TUESDAY
WILL REACH THE ERN LAKES BY WED AM.
THIS FRONT WILL PUSH EWRD ON WED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES E IN ASSCTN WITH THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVG EWRD IN
SERN CANADA. THIS WILL LIKELY FIRE MORE SHRA AND TSRA FOR WED.
THE FRONT IS STILL PROJECTED TO BE LINGERING FROM SERN NY TO NE PA
IN THE BGM FORECAST AREA LATE WED NGT. THEN ON THURSDAY ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL PRESS THE FRONT WELL E OF THE REGION BUT ALL
SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE A SFC WAVE WILL FORM ON THIS BNDRY NEAR SERN
PA/NJ AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSRA TO THE REGION FOR THU.
LATEST 12Z EURO SUGGESTS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE CUD GET ENTRAINED
INTO THIS SURFACE WAVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CIRCULATION
SETS UP TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS HAS THE LOOK AND FEEL OF A
PREDECESSOR HEAVY TROPICAL RAIN EVENT. EURO QPF HAS A STRIPE OF
HEAVY RAIN ACRS NE PA TO ERN NY THU PM. SO KEPT POPS GOING INTO
THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
ITSELF WILL AFFECT THE REGION WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
345 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE MID-WEST BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH SAT MORNING. THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRIDAY AND NW SFC IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO
LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE CWA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
CWA. A SFC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE CWA WITH QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE WARMING TREND HEADING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPR 40S TO MID 50S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HUNID AIR MAS WITH LGT WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG
OVRNGT...MSTLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS AT WORST BUT SOME IFR PSBL DEEP
IN THE VLY AT ELM. VFR CONDS RETURN TUE MRNG AS WE MIX...OTRW HTG
AND AN APRCHG SHRT WV WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONV TUES AFTN. HAVE
INCLUDED TRWS FOR THE END OF THE PD ALONG WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS
AT ALL STATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...BEST POTENTIAL
TUE EVE. POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG KELM TUE NGT.
WED THROUGH THU...RESTRICTIONS FROM RA/TSRA AS MOIST COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE WED TO EARLY THU.
THU NGT THROUGH SAT...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ015>018.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DGM/KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
947 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP A SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FOR NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE EXPECT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOME OF THIS STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN LATER TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
NY. THIS FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW JERSEY BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...
IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM TROF SHARPENS AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES INTO NY AND PA. BASED ON OBS TRENDS, HAVE
INCREASED MINS BY A DEGREE OR SO OVERNIGHT TO GENERALLY FORECAST
TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE.
REMOVED 20 POPS IN THE NEAR TERM AS CONVECTION HAS FIZZLED POST
SUNSET AND THERE IS NO TRIGGER IN THE VICINITY.
REST OF GRIDS LOOK FINE. WILL RESEND HEAT ADVISORY IN A MOMENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADARS SHOWS ISLD SHRA POPPING UP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NY AND
NERN PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND
1500 J/KG ACRS C NY AND NC PA. WITH CONTINUED INSOLATION I EXPECT
MIXED LAYER CAPES TO APPRCH 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SFC
BASED CAPES OVER 2500 J/KG. THIS IS NOT FAR OFF FROM THE 12Z NAM
PROJECTIONS. THE 12Z GFS HAS A LITTLE LESS CAPE BUT IT IS IN THE
BALL PARK. THE LARGER SCALE FORCING WAS RATHER WEAK THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL PV LOBE TRACK ACRS
C NY AND NE PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE PASSES E OF NY AND PA
THIS EVENING IN TANDEM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAY/S HEATING. FOR
POPS I RAMP UP TO LOW CHC IN THE HILLS OF C NY BY ARND 21Z. I
ANTICIPATE SOME MTN VALLEY CIRCULATIONS AND OR UPSLOPE WILL AIDE
IN DEVELOPMENT. BUT BY AND LARGE...THE ACVTY WILL REMAIN ISLD FOR
THE MOST PART. WITH DECENT CAPE I WUD NOT SURPRISE THAT WE SEE A
STRG STORM OR TWO. ALL THE ACVTY WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET.
FOR TUESDAY...THERE ARE MULTIPLE HAZARDS TO CONSIDER. FIRST, ISSUED
A HEAT ADVY FOR OUR NRN COUNTIES ALONG THE FINGER LAKES DRAINAGE
AND LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL POOL TO LOWER 70S AND
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING ON SRLY WINDS AND THE GENERAL LOW ELEVATIONS
MAXES SHUD CLIMB ABV 90F. COMPUTED HEAT INDICES TUE AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM 97 TO 102F IN LARGE PARTS OF THESE AREAS.
NEXT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRG TO SVR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH REALLY
BEGINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTS INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BUILDING DURG THE DAY AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SRLY
WINDS...MIXED LAYER CAPES LIKELY WILL EXCEED 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN NE PA WHERE THE LL WINDS ARE LESS
STRONG...DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT LOWER. BUT STILL SEE CAPES ON THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARND 1500 J/KG. IN ADDTN...ALL LARGER SCALE
MODELS SHOW THAT A LOW-LEVEL WAVE WILL RIDE UP THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE LARGE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SC CANADA TUE.
THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE LL WINDS AND AS A RESULT LL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY STRG. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR IS PROJECTED TO BE 20
TO 25 KNOTS TUE AFTERNOON AND UP TO 30 KNOTS TUE EVE. THE 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR IS SIMILAR TO THE 0-1 KM WITH THE 0-6 KM PROJECTED TO
BE ARND 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE SHEAR WILL BE STRGR IN NC NY AND
WEAKER IN NE PA. HENCE SLGHT RISK AREA AS PER SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK
LOOKS ON TRACK HAVING CNTRL NY AND NC PA IN THE SLGHT RISK AREA
TUE/TUE EVE. SINCE THE SHEAR IS STRG IN THE LL/S...ANY ORGANIZED
ACVTY LIKELY WILL BE LINEAR IN NATURE SO A FEW BROKEN LINES AND
EVEN A BOW ECHO IS POSSIBLE. IT DEPENDS ON HOW UNSTBL THE AMS
BECOMES AND IF THE LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL BE STRG ENUF TO FOCUS
THE CONVECTION.
NEXT THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. PWATS APPRCH 2.0 INCHES AND THE LL FLOW IS STRG
ENUF TO BALANCE THE MEAN CLD LAYER WINDS. THUS IF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOW A TENDENCY TO BACK BUILD...INSTEAD OF BEING FORWARD
PROPAGATING...MESO BETA ELEMENT VECTORS ARE SMALL. I COULD SEE A
SCENARIO WHERE WE GET A LINE OR A FEW BROKEN LINES OF STRG TO SVR
STORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/ERLY EVE THAT PROPAGATE FORWARD BUT
TREND TWD BACKWARD PROPAGATION LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE DAY/S
HEATING IS LOST AND STORMS WILL DERIVE INSTABILITY MORE FROM LL
ADVECTION. OUR LOCAL ANALOG SEVERE WEATHER CHECKLIST RETURNED THE
COLCHESTER FLASH FLOOD EVENT OF 2007 AND ALSO ANOTHER EVENT THAT
HAD A SMALLER FLASH FLOOD. BOTH OF THESE EVENTS WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS. FOR NOW HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE WIND AND
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACVTY CONTINUE
UNTIL AT LEAST LATE EVENING...BUT DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT
OF THE CONVECTION IT CUD LAST EVEN LONGER SO KEPT POPS GOING THRU
THE OVERNIGHT TO WED AM. THE FRONTAL BNDRY THAT PRESSES E TUESDAY
WILL REACH THE ERN LAKES BY WED AM.
THIS FRONT WILL PUSH EWRD ON WED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES E IN ASSCTN WITH THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVG EWRD IN
SERN CANADA. THIS WILL LIKELY FIRE MORE SHRA AND TSRA FOR WED.
THE FRONT IS STILL PROJECTED TO BE LINGERING FROM SERN NY TO NE PA
IN THE BGM FORECAST AREA LATE WED NGT. THEN ON THURSDAY ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL PRESS THE FRONT WELL E OF THE REGION BUT ALL
SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE A SFC WAVE WILL FORM ON THIS BNDRY NEAR SERN
PA/NJ AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSRA TO THE REGION FOR THU.
LATEST 12Z EURO SUGGESTS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE CUD GET ENTRAINED
INTO THIS SURFACE WAVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CIRCULATION
SETS UP TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS HAS THE LOOK AND FEEL OF A
PREDECESSOR HEAVY TROPICAL RAIN EVENT. EURO QPF HAS A STRIPE OF
HEAVY RAIN ACRS NE PA TO ERN NY THU PM. SO KEPT POPS GOING INTO
THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
ITSELF WILL AFFECT THE REGION WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
345 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE MID-WEST BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH SAT MORNING. THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRIDAY AND NW SFC IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO
LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE CWA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
CWA. A SFC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE CWA WITH QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE WARMING TREND HEADING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPR 40S TO MID 50S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HUNID AIR MAS WITH LGT WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG
OVRNGT...MSTLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS AT WORST BUT SOME IFR PSBL DEEP
IN THE VLY AT ELM. VFR CONDS RETURN TUE MRNG AS WE MIX...OTRW HTG
AND AN APRCHG SHRT WV WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONV TUES AFTN. HAVE
INCLUDED TRWS FOR THE END OF THE PD ALONG WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS
AT ALL STATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...BEST POTENTIAL
TUE EVE. POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG KELM TUE NGT.
WED THROUGH THU...RESTRICTIONS FROM RA/TSRA AS MOIST COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE WED TO EARLY THU.
THU NGT THROUGH SAT...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ015>018.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DGM/KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
743 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP A SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FOR NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE EXPECT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOME OF THIS STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN LATER TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
NY. THIS FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW JERSEY BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADARS SHOWS ISLD SHRA POPPING UP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NY AND
NERN PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND
1500 J/KG ACRS C NY AND NC PA. WITH CONTINUED INSOLATION I EXPECT
MIXED LAYER CAPES TO APPRCH 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SFC
BASED CAPES OVER 2500 J/KG. THIS IS NOT FAR OFF FROM THE 12Z NAM
PROJECTIONS. THE 12Z GFS HAS A LITTLE LESS CAPE BUT IT IS IN THE
BALL PARK. THE LARGER SCALE FORCING WAS RATHER WEAK THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST RAP SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL PV LOBE TRACK ACRS C NY AND NE
PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE PASSES E OF NY AND PA THIS EVENING IN
TANDEM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAY/S HEATING. FOR POPS I RAMP UP TO
LOW CHC IN THE HILLS OF C NY BY ARND 21Z. I ANTICIPATE SOME MTN
VALLEY CIRCULATIONS AND OR UPSLOPE WILL AIDE IN DEVELOPMENT. BUT
BY AND LARGE...THE ACVTY WILL REMAIN ISLD FOR THE MOST PART. WITH
DECENT CAPE I WUD NOT SURPRISE THAT WE SEE A STRG STORM OR TWO.
ALL THE ACVTY WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET.
FOR TUESDAY...THERE ARE MULTIPLE HAZARDS TO CONSIDER. FIRST, ISSUED
A HEAT ADVY FOR OUR NRN COUNTIES ALONG THE FINGER LAKES DRAINAGE
AND LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL POOL TO LOWER 70S AND
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING ON SRLY WINDS AND THE GENERAL LOW ELEVATIONS
MAXES SHUD CLIMB ABV 90F. COMPUTED HEAT INDICES TUE AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM 97 TO 102F IN LARGE PARTS OF THESE AREAS.
NEXT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRG TO SVR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH REALLY
BEGINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTS INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BUILDING DURG THE DAY AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SRLY
WINDS...MIXED LAYER CAPES LIKELY WILL EXCEED 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN NE PA WHERE THE LL WINDS ARE LESS
STRONG...DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT LOWER. BUT STILL SEE CAPES ON THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARND 1500 J/KG. IN ADDTN...ALL LARGER SCALE
MODELS SHOW THAT A LOW-LEVEL WAVE WILL RIDE UP THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE LARGE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SC CANADA TUE.
THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE LL WINDS AND AS A RESULT LL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY STRG. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR IS PROJECTED TO BE 20
TO 25 KNOTS TUE AFTERNOON AND UP TO 30 KNOTS TUE EVE. THE 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR IS SIMILAR TO THE 0-1 KM WITH THE 0-6 KM PROJECTED TO
BE ARND 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE SHEAR WILL BE STRGR IN NC NY AND
WEAKER IN NE PA. HENCE SLGHT RISK AREA AS PER SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK
LOOKS ON TRACK HAVING CNTRL NY AND NC PA IN THE SLGHT RISK AREA
TUE/TUE EVE. SINCE THE SHEAR IS STRG IN THE LL/S...ANY ORGANIZED
ACVTY LIKELY WILL BE LINEAR IN NATURE SO A FEW BROKEN LINES AND
EVEN A BOW ECHO IS POSSIBLE. IT DEPENDS ON HOW UNSTBL THE AMS
BECOMES AND IF THE LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL BE STRG ENUF TO FOCUS
THE CONVECTION.
NEXT THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. PWATS APPRCH 2.0 INCHES AND THE LL FLOW IS STRG
ENUF TO BALANCE THE MEAN CLD LAYER WINDS. THUS IF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOW A TENDENCY TO BACK BUILD...INSTEAD OF BEING FORWARD
PROPAGATING...MESO BETA ELEMENT VECTORS ARE SMALL. I COULD SEE A
SCENARIO WHERE WE GET A LINE OR A FEW BROKEN LINES OF STRG TO SVR
STORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/ERLY EVE THAT PROPAGATE FORWARD BUT
TREND TWD BACKWARD PROPAGATION LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE DAY/S
HEATING IS LOST AND STORMS WILL DERIVE INSTABILITY MORE FROM LL
ADVECTION. OUR LOCAL ANALOG SEVERE WEATHER CHECKLIST RETURNED THE
COLCHESTER FLASH FLOOD EVENT OF 2007 AND ALSO ANOTHER EVENT THAT
HAD A SMALLER FLASH FLOOD. BOTH OF THESE EVENTS WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS. FOR NOW HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE WIND AND
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACVTY CONTINUE
UNTIL AT LEAST LATE EVENING...BUT DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT
OF THE CONVECTION IT CUD LAST EVEN LONGER SO KEPT POPS GOING THRU
THE OVERNIGHT TO WED AM. THE FRONTAL BNDRY THAT PRESSES E TUESDAY
WILL REACH THE ERN LAKES BY WED AM.
THIS FRONT WILL PUSH EWRD ON WED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES E IN ASSCTN WITH THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVG EWRD IN
SERN CANADA. THIS WILL LIKELY FIRE MORE SHRA AND TSRA FOR WED.
THE FRONT IS STILL PROJECTED TO BE LINGERING FROM SERN NY TO NE PA
IN THE BGM FORECAST AREA LATE WED NGT. THEN ON THURSDAY ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL PRESS THE FRONT WELL E OF THE REGION BUT ALL
SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE A SFC WAVE WILL FORM ON THIS BNDRY NEAR SERN
PA/NJ AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSRA TO THE REGION FOR THU.
LATEST 12Z EURO SUGGESTS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE CUD GET ENTRAINED
INTO THIS SURFACE WAVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CIRCULATION
SETS UP TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS HAS THE LOOK AND FEEL OF A
PREDECESSOR HEAVY TROPICAL RAIN EVENT. EURO QPF HAS A STRIPE OF
HEAVY RAIN ACRS NE PA TO ERN NY THU PM. SO KEPT POPS GOING INTO
THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
ITSELF WILL AFFECT THE REGION WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
345 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE MID-WEST BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH SAT MORNING. THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRIDAY AND NW SFC IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO
LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE CWA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
CWA. A SFC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE CWA WITH QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE WARMING TREND HEADING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPR 40S TO MID 50S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HUNID AIR MAS WITH LGT WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG
OVRNGT...MSTLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS AT WORST BUT SOME IFR PSBL DEEP
IN THE VLY AT ELM. VFR CONDS RETURN TUE MRNG AS WE MIX...OTRW HTG
AND AN APRCHG SHRT WV WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONV TUES AFTN. HAVE
INCLUDED TRWS FOR THE END OF THE PD ALONG WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS
AT ALL STATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...BEST POTENTIAL
TUE EVE. POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG KELM TUE NGT.
WED THROUGH THU...RESTRICTIONS FROM RA/TSRA AS MOIST COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE WED TO EARLY THU.
THU NGT THROUGH SAT...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ015>018.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DGM/KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
427 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LOSE INFLUENCE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
WEATHER TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN WARM TEMPERATURES
AND RISING DEWPOINTS THROUGH MID WEEK. IT WILL ALSO BE TURNING
MORE UNSETTLED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE BETWEEN A SFC
ANTICYCLONE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND A
POTENT CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. AFTERNOON VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF DIURNAL CUMULUS WHOSE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY AN AMPLIFIED MID- LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TAKING PLACE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW YORK IN
A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AIDED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT THAT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RAP ANALYSES SHOW SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY THERE CURRENTLY...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED AS NIGHTFALL PROGRESSES.
OPTED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 03-12Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDINESS BUT A DRY EVENING FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FIRST OF WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FEW RATHER MUGGY NIGHTS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S - WITH UPPER 60S MORE LIKELY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD /AND INTO MID WEEK AS WELL/. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH TUESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME APPARENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS WELL...THOUGH THERE STILL ARE SOME
QUESTIONS ON OVERALL COVERAGE AND STRENGTH.
ON MONDAY...WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDER TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAY...ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS BY MID-MORNING...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT
LATER IN THE DAY. OPTED FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. MORE CLOUDS THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL TEND TO KEEP INSTABILITY ON THE LOW SIDE. THOUGH 850 MB
TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO AROUND +16C...THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY (LOWER TO MID 80S). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 60S.
FOR TUESDAY...TODAY`S GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
SLOWER ON TUESDAY WITH APPROACH OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM POTENT UPPER
MIDWEST LOW. DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS IN VERY WARM
LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/CAPPING (+23 AT 925 MB AND NEAR +10C AT
700 MB). A NUMBER OF GUIDANCE ALSO TAPS INTO A POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM THE MIDWEST WITH STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES TO ITS STRENGTH
AND TIMING. WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO BE STRENGTHENING TO THE POINT
WHERE WIND SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN GET GOING. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE POSSIBLE...BUT FORCING IS A QUESTION MARK ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
PROGGED STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING INVERSION. I COULDN`T GO ANY
HIGHER THAN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE CAP AND ABSENCE OF FRONTAL LIFT OR EVIDENCE OF
500 MB HEIGHT FALLS. I DO INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN SLIGHTLY BETTER HEIGHT FALLS
MOVE IN. WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S...IT WILL FEEL MORE UNCOMFORTABLE THAN MONDAY. A
VERY WARM AND SULTRY EVENING AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
THE LOW 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT SUNDAY...BULK SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND INSTABILITY INCREASES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO
HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING STORMS TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.
EXPECTING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS MODEL SHOWING THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...SO HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS...EXPECT
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...BUT BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINING THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME MOUNTAIN CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME HIGH THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS AT TIMES. THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. WINDS
CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL VARIATIONS GOVERNED BY TERRAIN EFFECTS AND/OR
LAKE BREEZES. MOISTURE MOVING NORTRHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...SO EXPECTING SOME INCREASE IN MID
LEVELS FROM 06Z MONDAY ONWARD.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH WITH A SLOWLY INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CIGS
AND BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHEST COVERAGE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
ON THURSDAY. BECOMING VFR ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
356 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LOSE INFLUENCE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
WEATHER TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN WARM TEMPERATURES
AND RISING DEWPOINTS THROUGH MID WEEK. IT WILL ALSO BE TURNING
MORE UNSETTLED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE BETWEEN A SFC
ANTICYCLONE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND A
POTENT CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. AFTERNOON VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF DIURNAL CUMULUS WHOSE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY AN AMPLIFIED MID- LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TAKING PLACE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW YORK IN
A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AIDED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT THAT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RAP ANALYSES SHOW SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY THERE CURRENTLY...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED AS NIGHTFALL PROGRESSES.
OPTED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 03-12Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDINESS BUT A DRY EVENING FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FIRST OF WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FEW RATHER MUGGY NIGHTS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S - WITH UPPER 60S MORE LIKELY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD /AND INTO MID WEEK AS WELL/. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH TUESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME APPARENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS WELL...THOUGH THERE STILL ARE SOME
QUESTIONS ON OVERALL COVERAGE AND STRENGTH.
ON MONDAY...WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDER TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAY...ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS BY MID-MORNING...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT
LATER IN THE DAY. OPTED FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. MORE CLOUDS THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL TEND TO KEEP INSTABILITY ON THE LOW SIDE. THOUGH 850 MB
TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO AROUND +16C...THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY (LOWER TO MID 80S). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 60S.
FOR TUESDAY...TODAY`S GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
SLOWER ON TUESDAY WITH APPROACH OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM POTENT UPPER
MIDWEST LOW. DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS IN VERY WARM
LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/CAPPING (+23 AT 925 MB AND NEAR +10C AT
700 MB). A NUMBER OF GUIDANCE ALSO TAPS INTO A POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM THE MIDWEST WITH STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES TO ITS STRENGTH
AND TIMING. WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO BE STRENGTHENING TO THE POINT
WHERE WIND SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN GET GOING. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE POSSIBLE...BUT FORCING IS A QUESTION MARK ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
PROGGED STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING INVERSION. I COULDN`T GO ANY
HIGHER THAN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE CAP AND ABSENCE OF FRONTAL LIFT OR EVIDENCE OF
500 MB HEIGHT FALLS. I DO INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN SLIGHTLY BETTER HEIGHT FALLS
MOVE IN. WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S...IT WILL FEEL MORE UNCOMFORTABLE THAN MONDAY. A
VERY WARM AND SULTRY EVENING AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
THE LOW 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM EDT SUNDAY...STILL LOOKING LIKE AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF
WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME FRAME AS LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW
PROGRESSION INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SEVERAL WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHS SWINGING
THROUGH THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ACT AS FOCI FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY AND EVENING...BUT RECENT DETERMINISTIC
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE POTENTIAL THREAT FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. WITH AT LEAST DECENT
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY I CERTAINLY CAN`T CALL THE THREAT
ZERO...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SUCH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...A
BROADER LOOK AT THIS MORNING`S SOLUTIONS SHOW A GENERAL LACK OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND TO BE HONEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS PLENTY OF MIXED SIGNALS STILL ABOUND.
AT THIS POINT THE BEST THREAT OF ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY STILL
LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY
EVENING...AND ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THIS IDEA IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. IN FACT THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING THE
BIGGER STORM DAY AS LATEST CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THIS
WOULD BE THE DAY THAT THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY COOL BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS BY THURSDAY DUE TO A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF WEST TO EAST
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE FRONT CLEARS
FURTHER EAST AND IS REPLACED BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVER TIME SETTING
THE STAGE FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PLEASANTLY WARM AND DRY
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME MOUNTAIN CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME HIGH THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS AT TIMES. THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. WINDS
CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL VARIATIONS GOVERNED BY TERRAIN EFFECTS AND/OR
LAKE BREEZES. MOISTURE MOVING NORTRHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...SO EXPECTING SOME INCREASE IN MID
LEVELS FROM 06Z MONDAY ONWARD.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH WITH A SLOWLY INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CIGS
AND BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHEST COVERAGE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
ON THURSDAY. BECOMING VFR ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
158 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR FOR NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MID WEEK. WITH THE INCREASING WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PA AS OF 14Z. A FEW CUMULUS WERE ALREADY
BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE SCRANTON WILKES BARRE AREAS TO BRADFORD
COUNTY. WITH CONTINUED INSOLATION I EXPECT A SCT-BKN CU FIELD TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF C NY AND NE PA AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING FROM 14C TO 16C AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S F WHICH TRANSLATES TO 16-18C. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTS
THAT A SHORT WAVE WAS RIDING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH WAS OVR NY/PA AT THIS TIME. A CIRRUS LAYER FROM CNTRL
PA TO SRN ONT CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE ALONG WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWG DARKENING OVER LAKE HURON AND ERN LWR MI.
INDEED THERE WERE A FEW ISLD SHRA OVER WRN AND SRN PA AT THIS
TIME. THE RAP AND OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS ALONG WITH THE LARGER
SCALE SYNOPTIC MODELS TRACK THIS SHRT WAVE UP TO SRN QUEBEC BY 00Z
AND AS A RESULT THE UPPER LVL RDG AXIS MOVES A LITTLE EASTWARD
REACHING A BTV-LNS LINE ROUGHLY BY THIS EVE.
ONE CONSEQUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RDG OVHD MUCH OF THE DAY IS THAT
IT IS SUPPORTING A SFC ANTICYCLONE OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH IS
CONTINUING TO LEAD TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR THRU NY AND PA. THE
LL SRLY WINDS ARE A BIT STRGR WEST OF THE APPLCNS INTO WRN NY AND
HENCE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS AREA SEES THE HIGHEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS PM. IN ADDTN...THIS AREA IS A LITTLE COOLER ALOFT BEING
A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER RDG AXIS THIS PM. HENCE
CONCUR WITH PREV SHIFT AND SURROUNDING OFFICES THAT THE FINGER
LAKES REGION TO NC NY IN THE NWS BGM FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE
BEST SHOT FOR POP UP HIT AND MISS SHRA AND TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVE AND
HAVE KEPT POPS PRETTY MUCH AS IS WITH SLIGHTLY TIMING ADJUSTMENTS.
WINDS ARE WEAK WITH THE STRGEST WINDS APPRCHING 20 KNOTS IN THE
LL/S. THE AMS WAS ALSO PRETTY DRY THIS PM SO I DON/T SEE A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT TODAY. MODEL CAPES VARY RANGING FROM OVER 1000 J/KG ON
THE NAM TO LESS THAN A 100 J/KG ON THE GFS. THE SFC DEWPOINTS LOOK
TOO HIGH ON THE NAM AND TOO LOW ON THE GFS. SO WE SHUD SEE CAPES
ARND 500 J/KG OR BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK SHEAR
SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE UPR LVL RDG AND LIKELY WILL SUPPORT A FEW SHRA MAINLY ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES TO NC NY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT MADE NO SIG
CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
500 AM UPDATE...
HOT AND HUMID, ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE THE RULE DURING THIS PERIOD. AS
OF NOW IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE TO RELY ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
FOR ANY CONVECTION MONDAY. THIS MAY KEEP OUR CONVECTION FAIRLY
CONFINED TO THE LAKE PLAIN, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING DRY. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL COME LATE TUESDAY, AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. AS THE DAY SHIFT
POINTED OUT FROM SATURDAY, HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY WITH CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG, IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR, AND PWATS (A MEASURE OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE) ABOVE 1.7 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
THREAT IN THE HWO, AND AFTER TALKING TO THE LONG TERM FORECASTER
WILL EXTEND THREAT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE BELOW FOR THAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING AN
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
MIDWEST THIS WEEK WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE THURSDAY-THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME OFFERING UP THE FINAL ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE REGION. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN
THIS AIRMASS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DEEP
BULK SHEAR MAY ALSO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE. THEN...A BROAD
AND UNSEASONABLY FRESH AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD IN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH FAIR
SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BRINGING
THE WIND FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KT. SOME VFR CIGS HAVE
POPPED UP OVER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL NY AND NE PA AND CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING BUT REMAIN GENERALLY
VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS FROM NEAR KROC S TO HORNELL IN WESTERN STUEBEN COUNTY.
THIS ACTIVITY IS MAKING VERY LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST AS THE
STEERING WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OVER NIGHT AT TERMAINALS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL.
ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL MVFR
VSBY OVER NIGHT...ONLY MENTIONED IT AT KELM TERMINAL.
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...MAINLY VFR BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/TSRA. POSSIBILITY OF VALLEY FOG AT KELM EACH
OVERNIGHT.
THU...RESTRICTIONS FROM RA/TSRA AS MOIST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
FRI...BECOMING VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...BMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
151 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. STILL LOOKING AT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ANTICIPATED
INCREASE IN CUMULUS CLOUDS ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME MODEST CAPE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY /LESS THAN 500 J/KG/ AS DEWPOINTS THERE HAVE CLIMBED INTO
THE MID 60S. HOWEVER WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING CAPPED WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON /EXCEPT
NEAR THE SHORE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN/. WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF
SUNSHINE LEFT TO GO HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TRACK...WELL INTO THE 80S
WITH AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...TONIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITIES ON SOUTH WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT WAS...MAINLY UPPER 60S. EASTERN
VERMONT SHOULD HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPS...THOUGH STILL UNSEASONABLY
WARM...WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDS. DURING THE DAY MONDAY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM. HAVE ACTUALLY GONE WITH MAX
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO TODAY THOUGH...BECAUSE THERE WILL BE MORE
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AROUND WHICH I THINK WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING...THOUGH TEMPS STILL WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. UPPER
80S ARE FORECASTED AREA WIDE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION MONDAY ALLOWING MID LEVEL ANTI CYCOLNIC FLOW TO
INCREASE. DESPITE THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...INSTABILITY PROGS ARE PRETTY MARGINAL. FEEL THAT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LIKELY POPS MENTIONED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL ALL WANE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE WARM WITH LOW TEMPS AROUND 70 IN SOME SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850 TEMPS CONTINUING
TO WARM ON SOUTHWESTERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEST INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR FORECAST REGION ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WILL
MENTION CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN BEST CHANCE WILL BE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...THOUGH WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSED. BIGGER NEWS TUESDAY WILL BE
TEMPS EDGING TOWARDS 90 IN SOME LOCATIONS. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
CLOUDS LIMIT WARMING ATA LL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM EDT SUNDAY...STILL LOOKING LIKE AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF
WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME FRAME AS LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW
PROGRESSION INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SEVERAL WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHS SWINGING
THROUGH THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ACT AS FOCI FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY AND EVENING...BUT RECENT DETERMINISTIC
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE POTENTIAL THREAT FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. WITH AT LEAST DECENT
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY I CERTAINLY CAN`T CALL THE THREAT
ZERO...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SUCH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...A
BROADER LOOK AT THIS MORNING`S SOLUTIONS SHOW A GENERAL LACK OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND TO BE HONEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS PLENTY OF MIXED SIGNALS STILL ABOUND.
AT THIS POINT THE BEST THREAT OF ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY STILL
LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY
EVENING...AND ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THIS IDEA IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. IN FACT THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING THE
BIGGER STORM DAY AS LATEST CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THIS
WOULD BE THE DAY THAT THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY COOL BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS BY THURSDAY DUE TO A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF WEST TO EAST
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE FRONT CLEARS
FURTHER EAST AND IS REPLACED BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVER TIME SETTING
THE STAGE FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PLEASANTLY WARM AND DRY
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME MOUNTAIN CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME HIGH THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS AT TIMES. THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. WINDS
CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL VARIATIONS GOVERNED BY TERRAIN EFFECTS AND/OR
LAKE BREEZES. MOISTURE MOVING NORTRHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...SO EXPECTING SOME INCREASE IN MID
LEVELS FROM 06Z MONDAY ONWARD.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH WITH A SLOWLY INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CIGS
AND BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHEST COVERAGE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
ON THURSDAY. BECOMING VFR ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
137 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR FOR NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MID WEEK. WITH THE INCREASING WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PA AS OF 14Z. A FEW CUMULUS WERE ALREADY
BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE SCRANTON WILKES BARRE AREAS TO BRADFORD
COUNTY. WITH CONTINUED INSOLATION I EXPECT A SCT-BKN CU FIELD TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF C NY AND NE PA AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING FROM 14C TO 16C AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S F WHICH TRANSLATES TO 16-18C. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTS
THAT A SHORT WAVE WAS RIDING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH WAS OVR NY/PA AT THIS TIME. A CIRRUS LAYER FROM CNTRL
PA TO SRN ONT CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE ALONG WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWG DARKENING OVER LAKE HURON AND ERN LWR MI.
INDEED THERE WERE A FEW ISLD SHRA OVER WRN AND SRN PA AT THIS
TIME. THE RAP AND OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS ALONG WITH THE LARGER
SCALE SYNOPTIC MODELS TRACK THIS SHRT WAVE UP TO SRN QUEBEC BY 00Z
AND AS A RESULT THE UPPER LVL RDG AXIS MOVES A LITTLE EASTWARD
REACHING A BTV-LNS LINE ROUGHLY BY THIS EVE.
ONE CONSEQUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RDG OVHD MUCH OF THE DAY IS THAT
IT IS SUPPORTING A SFC ANTICYCLONE OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH IS
CONTINUING TO LEAD TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR THRU NY AND PA. THE
LL SRLY WINDS ARE A BIT STRGR WEST OF THE APPLCNS INTO WRN NY AND
HENCE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS AREA SEES THE HIGHEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS PM. IN ADDTN...THIS AREA IS A LITTLE COOLER ALOFT BEING
A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER RDG AXIS THIS PM. HENCE
CONCUR WITH PREV SHIFT AND SURROUNDING OFFICES THAT THE FINGER
LAKES REGION TO NC NY IN THE NWS BGM FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE
BEST SHOT FOR POP UP HIT AND MISS SHRA AND TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVE AND
HAVE KEPT POPS PRETTY MUCH AS IS WITH SLIGHTLY TIMING ADJUSTMENTS.
WINDS ARE WEAK WITH THE STRGEST WINDS APPRCHING 20 KNOTS IN THE
LL/S. THE AMS WAS ALSO PRETTY DRY THIS PM SO I DON/T SEE A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT TODAY. MODEL CAPES VARY RANGING FROM OVER 1000 J/KG ON
THE NAM TO LESS THAN A 100 J/KG ON THE GFS. THE SFC DEWPOINTS LOOK
TOO HIGH ON THE NAM AND TOO LOW ON THE GFS. SO WE SHUD SEE CAPES
ARND 500 J/KG OR BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK SHEAR
SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE UPR LVL RDG AND LIKELY WILL SUPPORT A FEW SHRA MAINLY ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES TO NC NY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT MADE NO SIG
CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500 AM UPDATE...
HOT AND HUMID, ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE THE RULE DURING THIS PERIOD. AS
OF NOW IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE TO RELY ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
FOR ANY CONVECTION MONDAY. THIS MAY KEEP OUR CONVECTION FAIRLY
CONFINED TO THE LAKE PLAIN, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING DRY. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL COME LATE TUESDAY, AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. AS THE DAY SHIFT
POINTED OUT FROM SATURDAY, HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY WITH CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG, IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR, AND PWATS (A MEASURE OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE) ABOVE 1.7 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
THREAT IN THE HWO, AND AFTER TALKING TO THE LONG TERM FORECASTER
WILL EXTEND THREAT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE BELOW FOR THAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL TRENDS. WITH
ANOTHER GFS-ECMWF RUN...IT IS BECOMING CLEARER THAT THE FINAL COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY /MENTIONED BELOW/ WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACCORDINGLY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL TEMPORARILY DIP WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND UPPER
WAVE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...ONLY TO INCREASE TO BACK IN EXCESS OF
1.5 INCHES LATE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY POOLED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WATER
HAZARDS NOTED BELOW...BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MAY INCREASE SHEAR THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS COULD PROMOTE ORGANIZED STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
PERIODIC MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LIKELY TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCTION...AND WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP THIS IDEA IN MIND FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED WATER RELATED HAZARDS NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST A FINAL PUSH OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WITH
RATHER MODEST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR FRIDAY AND NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 28/00Z ECMWF LURKING A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY NEXT SATURDAY...THE MODEL
CONSENSUS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THE WPC
FORECASTS. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BRINGING
THE WIND FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KT. SOME VFR CIGS HAVE
POPPED UP OVER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL NY AND NE PA AND CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING BUT REMAIN GENERALLY
VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS FROM NEAR KROC S TO HORNELL IN WESTERN STUEBEN COUNTY.
THIS ACTIVITY IS MAKING VERY LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST AS THE
STEERING WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OVER NIGHT AT TERMAINALS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL.
ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL MVFR
VSBY OVER NIGHT...ONLY MENTIONED IT AT KELM TERMINAL.
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...MAINLY VFR BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/TSRA. POSSIBILITY OF VALLEY FOG AT KELM EACH
OVERNIGHT.
THU...RESTRICTIONS FROM RA/TSRA AS MOIST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
FRI...BECOMING VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
100 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. STILL LOOKING AT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ANTICIPATED
INCREASE IN CUMULUS CLOUDS ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME MODEST CAPE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY /LESS THAN 500 J/KG/ AS DEWPOINTS THERE HAVE CLIMBED INTO
THE MID 60S. HOWEVER WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING CAPPED WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON /EXCEPT
NEAR THE SHORE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN/. WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF
SUNSHINE LEFT TO GO HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TRACK...WELL INTO THE 80S
WITH AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...TONIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITIES ON SOUTH WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT WAS...MAINLY UPPER 60S. EASTERN
VERMONT SHOULD HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPS...THOUGH STILL UNSEASONABLY
WARM...WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDS. DURING THE DAY MONDAY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM. HAVE ACTUALLY GONE WITH MAX
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO TODAY THOUGH...BECAUSE THERE WILL BE MORE
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AROUND WHICH I THINK WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING...THOUGH TEMPS STILL WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. UPPER
80S ARE FORECASTED AREA WIDE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION MONDAY ALLOWING MID LEVEL ANTI CYCOLNIC FLOW TO
INCREASE. DESPITE THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...INSTABILITY PROGS ARE PRETTY MARGINAL. FEEL THAT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LIKELY POPS MENTIONED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL ALL WANE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE WARM WITH LOW TEMPS AROUND 70 IN SOME SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850 TEMPS CONTINUING
TO WARM ON SOUTHWESTERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEST INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR FORECAST REGION ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WILL
MENTION CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN BEST CHANCE WILL BE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...THOUGH WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSED. BIGGER NEWS TUESDAY WILL BE
TEMPS EDGING TOWARDS 90 IN SOME LOCATIONS. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
CLOUDS LIMIT WARMING ATA LL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM EDT SUNDAY...STILL LOOKING LIKE AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF
WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME FRAME AS LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW
PROGRESSION INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SEVERAL WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHS SWINGING
THROUGH THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ACT AS FOCI FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY AND EVENING...BUT RECENT DETERMINISTIC
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE POTENTIAL THREAT FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. WITH AT LEAST DECENT
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY I CERTAINLY CAN`T CALL THE THREAT
ZERO...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SUCH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...A
BROADER LOOK AT THIS MORNING`S SOLUTIONS SHOW A GENERAL LACK OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND TO BE HONEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS PLENTY OF MIXED SIGNALS STILL ABOUND.
AT THIS POINT THE BEST THREAT OF ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY STILL
LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY
EVENING...AND ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THIS IDEA IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. IN FACT THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING THE
BIGGER STORM DAY AS LATEST CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THIS
WOULD BE THE DAY THAT THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY COOL BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS BY THURSDAY DUE TO A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF WEST TO EAST
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE FRONT CLEARS
FURTHER EAST AND IS REPLACED BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVER TIME SETTING
THE STAGE FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PLEASANTLY WARM AND DRY
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FEW MOUNTAIN CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME PASSING MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES. WINDS CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL VARIATIONS
GOVERNED BY TERRAIN EFFECTS AND/OR LAKE BREEZES.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONTINUES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH WITH A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CIGS AND
BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHEST COVERAGE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
ON THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1033 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR FOR NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MID WEEK. WITH THE INCREASING WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PA AS OF 14Z. A FEW CUMULUS WERE ALREADY
BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE SCRANTON WILKES BARRE AREAS TO BRADFORD
COUNTY. WITH CONTINUED INSOLATION I EXPECT A SCT-BKN CU FIELD TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF C NY AND NE PA AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING FROM 14C TO 16C AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S F WHICH TRANSLATES TO 16-18C. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTS
THAT A SHORT WAVE WAS RIDING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH WAS OVR NY/PA AT THIS TIME. A CIRRUS LAYER FROM CNTRL
PA TO SRN ONT CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE ALONG WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWG DARKENING OVER LAKE HURON AND ERN LWR MI.
INDEED THERE WERE A FEW ISLD SHRA OVER WRN AND SRN PA AT THIS
TIME. THE RAP AND OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS ALONG WITH THE LARGER
SCALE SYNOPTIC MODELS TRACK THIS SHRT WAVE UP TO SRN QUEBEC BY 00Z
AND AS A RESULT THE UPPER LVL RDG AXIS MOVES A LITTLE EASTWARD
REACHING A BTV-LNS LINE ROUGHLY BY THIS EVE.
ONE CONSEQUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RDG OVHD MUCH OF THE DAY IS THAT
IT IS SUPPORTING A SFC ANTICYCLONE OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH IS
CONTINUING TO LEAD TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR THRU NY AND PA. THE
LL SRLY WINDS ARE A BIT STRGR WEST OF THE APPLCNS INTO WRN NY AND
HENCE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS AREA SEES THE HIGHEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS PM. IN ADDTN...THIS AREA IS A LITTLE COOLER ALOFT BEING
A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER RDG AXIS THIS PM. HENCE
CONCUR WITH PREV SHIFT AND SURROUNDING OFFICES THAT THE FINGER
LAKES REGION TO NC NY IN THE NWS BGM FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE
BEST SHOT FOR POP UP HIT AND MISS SHRA AND TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVE AND
HAVE KEPT POPS PRETTY MUCH AS IS WITH SLIGHTLY TIMING ADJUSTMENTS.
WINDS ARE WEAK WITH THE STRGEST WINDS APPRCHING 20 KNOTS IN THE
LL/S. THE AMS WAS ALSO PRETTY DRY THIS PM SO I DON/T SEE A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT TODAY. MODEL CAPES VARY RANGING FROM OVER 1000 J/KG ON
THE NAM TO LESS THAN A 100 J/KG ON THE GFS. THE SFC DEWPOINTS LOOK
TOO HIGH ON THE NAM AND TOO LOW ON THE GFS. SO WE SHUD SEE CAPES
ARND 500 J/KG OR BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK SHEAR
SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE UPR LVL RDG AND LIKELY WILL SUPPORT A FEW SHRA MAINLY ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES TO NC NY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT MADE NO SIG
CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500 AM UPDATE...
HOT AND HUMID, ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE THE RULE DURING THIS PERIOD. AS
OF NOW IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE TO RELY ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
FOR ANY CONVECTION MONDAY. THIS MAY KEEP OUR CONVECTION FAIRLY
CONFINED TO THE LAKE PLAIN, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING DRY. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL COME LATE TUESDAY, AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. AS THE DAY SHIFT
POINTED OUT FROM SATURDAY, HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY WITH CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG, IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR, AND PWATS (A MEASURE OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE) ABOVE 1.7 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
THREAT IN THE HWO, AND AFTER TALKING TO THE LONG TERM FORECASTER
WILL EXTEND THREAT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE BELOW FOR THAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL TRENDS. WITH
ANOTHER GFS-ECMWF RUN...IT IS BECOMING CLEARER THAT THE FINAL COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY /MENTIONED BELOW/ WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACCORDINGLY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL TEMPORARILY DIP WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND UPPER
WAVE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...ONLY TO INCREASE TO BACK IN EXCESS OF
1.5 INCHES LATE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY POOLED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WATER
HAZARDS NOTED BELOW...BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MAY INCREASE SHEAR THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS COULD PROMOTE ORGANIZED STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
PERIODIC MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LIKELY TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCTION...AND WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP THIS IDEA IN MIND FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED WATER RELATED HAZARDS NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST A FINAL PUSH OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WITH
RATHER MODEST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR FRIDAY AND NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 28/00Z ECMWF LURKING A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY NEXT SATURDAY...THE MODEL
CONSENSUS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THE WPC
FORECASTS. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 10 KFT...LEFTOVERS OF WHAT USED TO BE SCT
SHRA FARTHER WEST...WAS ENOUGH ALONG WITH 20 KFT WINDS WITHIN THE
LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET AGL TO GREATLY LIMIT VALLEY FOG
FORMATION AT KELM EARLY THIS MORNING /ONLY BRIEFLY GOT TO MVFR
VIS/. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING TO THE COAST YET STILL DOMINANT
OF OUR WEATHER. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND IT HOWEVER WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO BEGIN APPROACHING WITH TIME. FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD HOWEVER...VERY LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA AT BEST THIS
AFTERNOON TO EVENING...AND MAINLY WEST OF KELM-KITH-KSYR AND THUS
NOT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. ONLY EXPECTING SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS AT
5-6 KFT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...AND THICKENING HIGH
CLOUDS 15-25 KFT TONIGHT...LOWERING FURTHER TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME SSE/SSW 5-10 KTS TODAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH WED...MAINLY VFR BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHRA/TSRA. POSSIBILITY OF VALLEY FOG AT KELM EACH OVERNIGHT.
THU...RESTRICTIONS FROM RA/TSRA AS MOIST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
338 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN BY MID
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND A DIFFUSE FRONT
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...ESSENTIALLY SEPARATING SURFACE DEW
POINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S FROM DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S OR NEAR
70F. MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IS THE PROGRESS
OF A NARROW BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A WEAK 700MB WAVE AS
ANALYZED BY THE MAJORITY OF NWP ON THE GRADIENT OF HIGHER 850MB
THETA-E AND PRECIPITABLE WATER...MOVING EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE AND BELOW NORMAL OVERALL MOISTURE TO THE
EAST OF THE WAVE HAS RESULTED IN A STRUGGLE OF THE CLOUDS TO MOVE
MUCH PAST THE WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES OR SO...WITH PATCHY RAIN
CONFINED LARGELY TO FORSYTH COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN PERSON COUNTY.
WITH LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE...MUCH OF ANY PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING COULD BE SPRINKLES...AND THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS
SHOWN SOME EROSION OF THE WEST END OF THE CLOUD BAND AS THE RAGGED
EAST EDGE OF THE CLOUDS MOVES SLOWLY EAST. THE NAM AND THE GFS
FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL WAVE TO STEADILY MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...AND SOME OF THE BUFR SOUNDINGS WOULD
INDICATE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY TOWARD KRDU
AND KRWI OVERNIGHT. GRIDDED GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS WOULD PROVIDE FOR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT THE LATEST TRENDS AND THE
MOISTURE FIELDS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE LATEST RAP...WOULD SUGGEST
THAT IS TOO PESSIMISTIC. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL AVERAGE A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD
CREEP UP OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST...
AND WILL FORECAST LOWS MOSTLY WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS
GUIDANCE...THOUGH CERTAINLY TOWARD THE WARMER MET NEAR KRWI...MOSTLY
IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...
THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BY
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO VALUES NOW AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL...TO NEARLY TWO INCHES ON THE GFS BY 00Z TUESDAY...AND WHILE
NOT SO HIGH ON THE NAM STILL TO ABOUT 1.8 INCHES BY THE SAME TIME.
AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS...
LEAVING LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MECHANISMS FOR STRONG LIFT. BOTH THE NAM
AND THE GFS SUGGEST UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST...AND ONLY WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE MAINLY TOWARD THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT WHERE THE BETTER LIFT...RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...IS FORECAST. GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
ESSENTIALLY THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS CAPPED TO
DEEP CONVECTION EXCEPT TOWARD THE TRIAD...WHERE THERE WOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IF A STORM COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA TO
BE SUSTAINED. MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST KM IS UNDER 1000J/KG AND
DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS WEAK...UNDER 400J/KG...SO CURRENTLY THE CHANCES OF
VIGOROUS CONVECTION APPEARS LOW. LIFTED INDICES MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE
TO -2C ON THE NAM WHICH GENERATES NO QPF AT ALL IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...AND TO -4C OR SO ON THE GFS WHICH DOES PROVIDE FOR A
LARGER AREA OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON WEST
OF U.S. 1...ALTHOUGH WITH LESSER MOS GUIDANCE POPS THAN THE NAM.
SOME OF THE HRRR WRF GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WEST OF U.S. 1 MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SO WILL BLEND THE NAM...GFS...AND THE WRF
GUIDANCE AND SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
BEFORE WANING DIURNALLY. HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 90 ON AVERAGE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70...CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR. -DJF
TUE/TUE NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN TUE/TUE NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW (CURRENTLY IN MANITOBA) TRACKS ESE TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...THOUGH THE HEIGHT GRADIENT
WILL CHANGE LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE CAROLINAS. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUE AFT/EVE. FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY
OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND ALONG THE SEABREEZE...THE LATTER OF WHICH
COULD PENETRATE WELL INLAND VIA ONSHORE FLOW (S/SE). MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE PROGGED TO STEEPEN FROM THE WEST TUE AFT/EVE AS A MODIFIED
EML ADVECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT (UP
TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE)...IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
CAP AND /DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS/ THAT COULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE PRESENCE OF SUCH WEAK FORCING. HOWEVER...GIVEN A POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO DRIFT EASTWARD IN AN ENV. WHICH WOULD FAVOR
STRONG COLD POOLS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION APPEARS WARRANTED
IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT. WILL ALSO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN IN ASSOC/W ONSHORE FLOW IN
THE PRESENCE OF A WEAKER MID-LEVEL CAP (ALBEIT WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY). EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE 90-95F RANGE...WARMEST IN THE
SANDHILLS. LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW...IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON WED AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTS A WARMER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THU/FRI IN
ASSOC/W INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/
CAROLINAS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS IN ASSOC/W THE
POTENTIAL FOR HOMEGROWN TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WED-FRI. IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST...THERE ARE TWO PRIMARY
SCENARIOS: 1) IF THE TRACK IS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND/OR THE
APPROACHING TROUGH IS SLOWER...PRECIP CHANCES COULD BE LOWER THAN
OTHERWISE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL PLAIN IN ASSOC/W SUBSIDENCE AND A
DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM...OR 2)
IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE COAST (OR INLAND) AND THE TROUGH
APPROACHES AS PROGGED BY 12Z GUIDANCE...THEN THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD
FAVOR A `LEFT OF TRACK` SCENARIO WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC. GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION WED-FRI IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OFFSHORE THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY SATURDAY...STEERING THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE OFFSHORE WITH EVENTUAL INTERACTION /EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION/ OCCURRING WELL NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. WITH SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER /MORE STABLE/
AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. PROBABILITIES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LOW...AND THE FEW
SHOWERS AS OF THIS WRITING OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...CLOSEST
TO KINT...SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR. SURFACE WINDS...MOSTLY
UNDER 10KT...WILL SLOWLY VEER DURING THE PERIOD AND BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BY MID-MORNING MONDAY.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BECOMES INCREASING MOIST DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. MOSTLY ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IF ANY...
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK. SOME
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY. AS THE
AIR MASS MOISTENS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS INCREASES
SOME...THOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST PROBABILITY OF
THAT ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA COMES
EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
327 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MEANDERS JUST OFFSHORE AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND A DIFFUSE FRONT
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...ESSENTIALLY SEPARATING SURFACE DEW
POINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S FROM DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S OR NEAR
70F. MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IS THE PROGRESS
OF A NARROW BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A WEAK 700MB WAVE AS
ANALYZED BY THE MAJORITY OF NWP ON THE GRADIENT OF HIGHER 850MB
THETA-E AND PRECIPITABLE WATER...MOVING EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE AND BELOW NORMAL OVERALL MOISTURE TO THE
EAST OF THE WAVE HAS RESULTED IN A STRUGGLE OF THE CLOUDS TO MOVE
MUCH PAST THE WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES OR SO...WITH PATCHY RAIN
CONFINED LARGELY TO FORSYTH COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN PERSON COUNTY.
WITH LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE...MUCH OF ANY PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING COULD BE SPRINKLES...AND THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS
SHOWN SOME EROSION OF THE WEST END OF THE CLOUD BAND AS THE RAGGED
EAST EDGE OF THE CLOUDS MOVES SLOWLY EAST. THE NAM AND THE GFS
FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL WAVE TO STEADILY MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...AND SOME OF THE BUFR SOUNDINGS WOULD
INDICATE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY TOWARD KRDU
AND KRWI OVERNIGHT. GRIDDED GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS WOULD PROVIDE FOR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT THE LATEST TRENDS AND THE
MOISTURE FIELDS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE LATEST RAP...WOULD SUGGEST
THAT IS TOO PESSIMISTIC. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL AVERAGE A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD
CREEP UP OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST...
AND WILL FORECAST LOWS MOSTLY WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS
GUIDANCE...THOUGH CERTAINLY TOWARD THE WARMER MET NEAR KRWI...MOSTLY
IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...
THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BY
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO VALUES NOW AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL...TO NEARLY TWO INCHES ON THE GFS BY 00Z TUESDAY...AND WHILE
NOT SO HIGH ON THE NAM STILL TO ABOUT 1.8 INCHES BY THE SAME TIME.
AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS...
LEAVING LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MECHANISMS FOR STRONG LIFT. BOTH THE NAM
AND THE GFS SUGGEST UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST...AND ONLY WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE MAINLY TOWARD THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT WHERE THE BETTER LIFT...RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...IS FORECAST. GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
ESSENTIALLY THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS CAPPED TO
DEEP CONVECTION EXCEPT TOWARD THE TRIAD...WHERE THERE WOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IF A STORM COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA TO
BE SUSTAINED. MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST KM IS UNDER 1000J/KG AND
DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS WEAK...UNDER 400J/KG...SO CURRENTLY THE CHANCES OF
VIGOROUS CONVECTION APPEARS LOW. LIFTED INDICES MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE
TO -2C ON THE NAM WHICH GENERATES NO QPF AT ALL IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...AND TO -4C OR SO ON THE GFS WHICH DOES PROVIDE FOR A
LARGER AREA OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON WEST
OF U.S. 1...ALTHOUGH WITH LESSER MOS GUIDANCE POPS THAN THE NAM.
SOME OF THE HRRR WRF GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WEST OF U.S. 1 MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SO WILL BLEND THE NAM...GFS...AND THE WRF
GUIDANCE AND SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
BEFORE WANING DIURNALLY. HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 90 ON AVERAGE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70...CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR. -DJF
TUE/TUE NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN TUE/TUE NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW (CURRENTLY IN MANITOBA) TRACKS ESE TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...THOUGH THE HEIGHT GRADIENT
WILL CHANGE LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE CAROLINAS. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUE AFT/EVE. FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY
OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND ALONG THE SEABREEZE...THE LATTER OF WHICH
COULD PENETRATE WELL INLAND VIA ONSHORE FLOW (S/SE). MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE PROGGED TO STEEPEN FROM THE WEST TUE AFT/EVE AS A MODIFIED
EML ADVECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT (UP
TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE)...IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
CAP AND /DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS/ THAT COULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE PRESENCE OF SUCH WEAK FORCING. HOWEVER...GIVEN A POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO DRIFT EASTWARD IN AN ENV. WHICH WOULD FAVOR
STRONG COLD POOLS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION APPEARS WARRANTED
IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT. WILL ALSO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN IN ASSOC/W ONSHORE FLOW IN
THE PRESENCE OF A WEAKER MID-LEVEL CAP (ALBEIT WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY). EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE 90-95F RANGE...WARMEST IN THE
SANDHILLS. LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW...IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON WED AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTS A WARMER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THU/FRI IN
ASSOC/W INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/
CAROLINAS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS IN ASSOC/W THE
POTENTIAL FOR HOMEGROWN TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WED-FRI. IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST...THERE ARE TWO PRIMARY
SCENARIOS: 1) IF THE TRACK IS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND/OR THE
APPROACHING TROUGH IS SLOWER...PRECIP CHANCES COULD BE LOWER THAN
OTHERWISE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL PLAIN IN ASSOC/W SUBSIDENCE AND A
DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM...OR 2)
IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE COAST (OR INLAND) AND THE TROUGH
APPROACHES AS PROGGED BY 12Z GUIDANCE...THEN THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD
FAVOR A `LEFT OF TRACK` SCENARIO WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC. GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION WED-FRI IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OFFSHORE THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY SATURDAY...STEERING THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE OFFSHORE WITH EVENTUAL INTERACTION /EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION/ OCCURRING WELL NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. WITH SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER /MORE STABLE/
AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. PROBABILITIES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LOW...AND THE FEW
SHOWERS AS OF THIS WRITING OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...CLOSEST
TO KINT...SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR. SURFACE WINDS...MOSTLY
UNDER 10KT...WILL SLOWLY VEER DURING THE PERIOD AND BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BY MID-MORNING MONDAY.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BECOMES INCREASING MOIST DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. MOSTLY ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IF ANY...
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK. SOME
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY. AS THE
AIR MASS MOISTENS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS INCREASES
SOME...THOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST PROBABILITY OF
THAT ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA COMES
EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TC
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
251 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MEANDERS JUST OFFSHORE AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND A DIFFUSE FRONT
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...ESSENTIALLY SEPARATING SURFACE DEW
POINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S FROM DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S OR NEAR
70F. MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IS THE PROGRESS
OF A NARROW BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A WEAK 700MB WAVE AS
ANALYZED BY THE MAJORITY OF NWP ON THE GRADIENT OF HIGHER 850MB
THETA-E AND PRECIPITABLE WATER...MOVING EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE AND BELOW NORMAL OVERALL MOISTURE TO THE
EAST OF THE WAVE HAS RESULTED IN A STRUGGLE OF THE CLOUDS TO MOVE
MUCH PAST THE WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES OR SO...WITH PATCHY RAIN
CONFINED LARGELY TO FORSYTH COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN PERSON COUNTY.
WITH LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE...MUCH OF ANY PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING COULD BE SPRINKLES...AND THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS
SHOWN SOME EROSION OF THE WEST END OF THE CLOUD BAND AS THE RAGGED
EAST EDGE OF THE CLOUDS MOVES SLOWLY EAST. THE NAM AND THE GFS
FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL WAVE TO STEADILY MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...AND SOME OF THE BUFR SOUNDINGS WOULD
INDICATE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY TOWARD KRDU
AND KRWI OVERNIGHT. GRIDDED GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS WOULD PROVIDE FOR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT THE LATEST TRENDS AND THE
MOISTURE FIELDS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE LATEST RAP...WOULD SUGGEST
THAT IS TOO PESSIMISTIC. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL AVERAGE A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD
CREEP UP OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST...
AND WILL FORECAST LOWS MOSTLY WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS
GUIDANCE...THOUGH CERTAINLY TOWARD THE WARMER MET NEAR KRWI...MOSTLY
IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...
THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BY
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO VALUES NOW AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL...TO NEARLY TWO INCHES ON THE GFS BY 00Z TUESDAY...AND WHILE
NOT SO HIGH ON THE NAM STILL TO ABOUT 1.8 INCHES BY THE SAME TIME.
AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS...
LEAVING LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MECHANISMS FOR STRONG LIFT. BOTH THE NAM
AND THE GFS SUGGEST UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST...AND ONLY WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE MAINLY TOWARD THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT WHERE THE BETTER LIFT...RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...IS FORECAST. GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
ESSENTIALLY THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS CAPPED TO
DEEP CONVECTION EXCEPT TOWARD THE TRIAD...WHERE THERE WOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IF A STORM COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA TO
BE SUSTAINED. MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST KM IS UNDER 1000J/KG AND
DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS WEAK...UNDER 400J/KG...SO CURRENTLY THE CHANCES OF
VIGOROUS CONVECTION APPEARS LOW. LIFTED INDICES MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE
TO -2C ON THE NAM WHICH GENERATES NO QPF AT ALL IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...AND TO -4C OR SO ON THE GFS WHICH DOES PROVIDE FOR A
LARGER AREA OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON WEST
OF U.S. 1...ALTHOUGH WITH LESSER MOS GUIDANCE POPS THAN THE NAM.
SOME OF THE HRRR WRF GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WEST OF U.S. 1 MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SO WILL BLEND THE NAM...GFS...AND THE WRF
GUIDANCE AND SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
BEFORE WANING DIURNALLY. HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 90 ON AVERAGE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70...CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR. -DJF
TUE/TUE NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN TUE/TUE NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW (CURRENTLY IN MANITOBA) TRACKS ESE TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...THOUGH THE HEIGHT GRADIENT
WILL CHANGE LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE CAROLINAS. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUE AFT/EVE. FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY
OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND ALONG THE SEABREEZE...THE LATTER OF WHICH
COULD PENETRATE WELL INLAND VIA ONSHORE FLOW (S/SE). MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE PROGGED TO STEEPEN FROM THE WEST TUE AFT/EVE AS A MODIFIED
EML ADVECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT (UP
TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE)...IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
CAP AND /DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS/ THAT COULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE PRESENCE OF SUCH WEAK FORCING. HOWEVER...GIVEN A POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO DRIFT EASTWARD IN AN ENV. WHICH WOULD FAVOR
STRONG COLD POOLS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION APPEARS WARRANTED
IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT. WILL ALSO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN IN ASSOC/W ONSHORE FLOW IN
THE PRESENCE OF A WEAKER MID-LEVEL CAP (ALBEIT WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY). EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE 90-95F RANGE...WARMEST IN THE
SANDHILLS. LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW...IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY...BUT WITHOUT A BETTER FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AND MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. 850MB TEMPS PEAK
BETWEEN 19 TO 20C ON WEDNESDAY WITH THICKNESSES NEAR 1430M...WHICH
SUGGESTS MID 90S WITH SOME UPPER 90S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN BY THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A POSSIBLE (SUB)TROPICAL
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODELS ARE IS FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT FALLING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE COASTAL
LOW IS FORECAST TO MEANDER UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...LIKELY DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. CYCLONE PHASE
FORECAST DIAGRAMS SHOW THE LOW SLOWLY BECOMING A WARM CORE
SYSTEM...AND THE NHC CURRENTLY GIVES A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE...BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LAST COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS
HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON BRINGING A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW NORTH
ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
POINT... SO WILL MAINTAIN MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A TREND
TOWARD HIGHER CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND HIGHS DROPPING
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. PROBABILITIES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LOW...AND THE FEW
SHOWERS AS OF THIS WRITING OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...CLOSEST
TO KINT...SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR. SURFACE WINDS...MOSTLY
UNDER 10KT...WILL SLOWLY VEER DURING THE PERIOD AND BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BY MID-MORNING MONDAY.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BECOMES INCREASING MOIST DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. MOSTLY ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IF ANY...
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK. SOME
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY. AS THE
AIR MASS MOISTENS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS INCREASES
SOME...THOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST PROBABILITY OF
THAT ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA COMES
EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TC
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/VINCENT
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
156 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MEANDERS JUST OFFSHORE AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM SUNDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WITH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXES
EITHER RIGHT OVER OR JUST WEST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW NORMAL OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH VALUES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE
NORMAL VALUE OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AREA...AND WEST ALSO NEAR A LOCAL 850MB THETA-E
RIDGE A FEW SHOWERS...WEAKENING AS THEY MOVED EAST...EXISTED. THE
LATEST RAP SHOWS THE CONFIGURATION OF 850MB THETA-E...PRECIPITABLE
WATER...AND K INDICES VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...MAKING ANY CHANCE OF RAIN...LOW AS IT MAY BE...ALONG THE
FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. RAP
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY OVERALL AND DRY FROM 850MB AND BELOW
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE TRIAD. FOR THE NEAR-TERM UPDATE ADDED A NARROW
WINDOW OF HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS NOON AND BEFORE OVER WESTERN
FORSYTH COUNTY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...OTHERWISE MAINTAINED THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO RAISE MAXES A DEGREE OR TWO IN MUCH OF
THE COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO EXPECTED DRY AIR AND GOOD SUN...AND LOWER
MAXES ABOUT A DEGREE TOWARD KINT. THE HRRR WRF SUGGESTS SOME MIXING
OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER AND JUST WEST OF THE YADKIN RIVER WHILE
THE RAP IS MORE BULLISH WITH THESE CLOUDS...ALBEIT STRUGGLING TO
MOVE EAST. ANY DEEP CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY...WITH INCREASING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS WELL AND EXPECT ANY
DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND CONFINED TO THE
WEST. LOWS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITHOUT A BETTER FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AND MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. 850MB TEMPS PEAK
BETWEEN 19 TO 20C ON WEDNESDAY WITH THICKNESSES NEAR 1430M...WHICH
SUGGESTS MID 90S WITH SOME UPPER 90S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN BY THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A POSSIBLE (SUB)TROPICAL
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODELS ARE IS FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT FALLING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE COASTAL
LOW IS FORECAST TO MEANDER UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...LIKELY DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. CYCLONE PHASE
FORECAST DIAGRAMS SHOW THE LOW SLOWLY BECOMING A WARM CORE
SYSTEM...AND THE NHC CURRENTLY GIVES A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE...BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LAST COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS
HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON BRINGING A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW NORTH
ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
POINT... SO WILL MAINTAIN MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A TREND
TOWARD HIGHER CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND HIGHS DROPPING
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. PROBABILITIES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LOW...AND THE FEW
SHOWERS AS OF THIS WRITING OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...CLOSEST
TO KINT...SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR. SURFACE WINDS...MOSTLY
UNDER 10KT...WILL SLOWLY VEER DURING THE PERIOD AND BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BY MID-MORNING MONDAY.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BECOMES INCREASING MOIST DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. MOSTLY ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IF ANY...
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK. SOME
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY. AS THE
AIR MASS MOISTENS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS INCREASES
SOME...THOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST PROBABILITY OF
THAT ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA COMES
EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TC
NEAR TERM...DJF/KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
956 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS... A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS GEORGIA AND FLORIDA WILL
LINGER SOUTH OF OUR AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MONDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND OFF THE GEORGIA COAST...WILL MEANDER
JUST OFFSHORE AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM SUNDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WITH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXES
EITHER RIGHT OVER OR JUST WEST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW NORMAL OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH VALUES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE
NORMAL VALUE OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AREA...AND WEST ALSO NEAR A LOCAL 850MB THETA-E
RIDGE A FEW SHOWERS...WEAKENING AS THEY MOVED EAST...EXISTED. THE
LATEST RAP SHOWS THE CONFIGURATION OF 850MB THETA-E...PRECIPITABLE
WATER...AND K INDICES VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...MAKING ANY CHANCE OF RAIN...LOW AS IT MAY BE...ALONG THE
FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. RAP
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY OVERALL AND DRY FROM 850MB AND BELOW
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE TRIAD. FOR THE NEAR-TERM UPDATE ADDED A NARROW
WINDOW OF HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS NOON AND BEFORE OVER WESTERN
FORSYTH COUNTY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...OTHERWISE MAINTAINED THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO RAISE MAXES A DEGREE OR TWO IN MUCH OF
THE COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO EXPECTED DRY AIR AND GOOD SUN...AND LOWER
MAXES ABOUT A DEGREE TOWARD KINT. THE HRRR WRF SUGGESTS SOME MIXING
OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER AND JUST WEST OF THE YADKIN RIVER WHILE
THE RAP IS MORE BULLISH WITH THESE CLOUDS...ALBEIT STRUGGLING TO
MOVE EAST. ANY DEEP CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY...WITH INCREASING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS WELL AND EXPECT ANY
DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND CONFINED TO THE
WEST. LOWS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITHOUT A BETTER FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AND MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. 850MB TEMPS PEAK
BETWEEN 19 TO 20C ON WEDNESDAY WITH THICKNESSES NEAR 1430M...WHICH
SUGGESTS MID 90S WITH SOME UPPER 90S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN BY THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A POSSIBLE (SUB)TROPICAL
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODELS ARE IS FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT FALLING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE COASTAL
LOW IS FORECAST TO MEANDER UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...LIKELY DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. CYCLONE PHASE
FORECAST DIAGRAMS SHOW THE LOW SLOWLY BECOMING A WARM CORE
SYSTEM...AND THE NHC CURRENTLY GIVES A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE...BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LAST COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS
HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON BRINGING A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW NORTH
ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
POINT... SO WILL MAINTAIN MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A TREND
TOWARD HIGHER CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND HIGHS DROPPING
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SUNDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST...ADVECTING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
NC. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS...VEERING AROUND
TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD: WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT...TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK (ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFT/EVE STORMS). THE
HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NC AND A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES/DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
150 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO SINK
FURTHER SOUTH EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THEN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH
MID AND LATE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...INLAND SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED A
LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN I ENVISIONED THREE HOURS AGO. SHOWERS
OFFSHORE AREN`T NUMEROUS BY ANY STRETCH...BUT THAT IS WHERE THE
REMAINING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS. THE LATEST SEVERAL HRRR
MODEL RUNS SHOW INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE JUST SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR AND LATER AFFECTING GEORGETOWN AND COASTAL HORRY COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT RADAR LOOPS AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS DOES SEEM REASONABLE. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROXIMATELY 250 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR IS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS EVENING. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN
THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ARE ADVECTING
HUMID AIR ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC. A SPLASH OF SUNSHINE EARLIER
TODAY WAS ALL THIS AIRMASS NEEDED TO EXPLODE INTO WAVES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MANY OF WHICH CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GRAND
STRAND AND PEE DEE REGION. POPS AS HIGH AS 80 PERCENT ARE FORECAST
IN THE PEE DEE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE
EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SLUG OF SURPRISINGLY DRY AIR ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. EARLIER MODELS KEPT
THIS DRY AIR MAINLY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA HOWEVER THE 19Z RUN
OF THE HRRR WAS MORE INSISTENT THAT DEWPOINTS WOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 60S LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
RISING PRESSURES OVER LAND AT NIGHT NORMALLY CREATE A BACKED SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPARED TO WHAT THE BROAD SYNOPTIC GRADIENT
MIGHT SUGGEST...SO I HAVE TRIMMED A FEW DEGREES OFF FORECAST
DEWPOINTS AFTER 07-08Z...MAINLY AFFECTING THE LBT-ILM CORRIDOR. THIS
WILL HAVE THE ADDED IMPACT OF CREATING LESSER SHOWER AND FOG/LOW
STRATUS CHANCES LATE TONIGHT...AND I HAVE TRIMMED BACK FORECAST POPS
ACCORDINGLY.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM 69-74...COOLEST IN BURGAW AND NORTH
OF LUMBERTON...WARMEST AT THE GEORGETOWN COUNTY BEACHES AND BALD
HEAD ISLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH
WHILE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FL/GA COAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
DEFINED SUN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT BUILDING 5H RIDGE WILL WORK TO DRY THE MID LEVELS. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP BY AROUND HALF AN INCH SUN
THEY WILL STILL BE VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BUT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES WILL STILL BE ABLE
TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
UNDER THE 5H RIDGE STORM MOTIONS WILL AGAIN BE UNDER 10 KT AND
STORMS WILL HAVE ABILITY TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS.
HOWEVER THE OVERALL FLOODING THREAT IS DECREASED GIVEN THE LOWER
EXPECTED COVERAGE. HIGHS CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW CLIMO WITH CLOUD
COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP LOWS ABOVE CLIMO...LOW TO MID
70S.
MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN MON FURTHER DRYING MID
LEVELS WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE. CONFIDENCE MON IS ON THE LOW
SIDE...IN PART DUE TO EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE LURKING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND RESULTING
MID LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE AND THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
FEATURES WOULD POINT TO PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING LATER IN THE
PERIOD. WILL CARRY LOW CHC POP MON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE
COAST. HIGHS WILL CREEP UP A DEGREE OR TWO...NEARING CLIMO...AS
THE 5H RIDGE BUILDS. LOWS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS WILL REMAIN ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
TROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. ON TUESDAY
THE LOW SHOULD BE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST BUT MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE
FATE OF THE LOW THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH MID WEEK
PUSHING A TROUGH/FRONT EAST THROUGH THURS BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY. THE TROPICAL LOW OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD GET
PICKED UP BY THIS TROUGH PUSHING EAST. GFS JUST SHOWS SOME
CONVECTION MOVING UP THROUGH THE OFF SHORE WATERS FRI INTO SATURDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW TRACKING UP THROUGH THE
OFF SHORE WATERS OFF OF CAPE FEAR FRI REACHING THE WATERS OFF OF
CAPE HATTERAS BY SAT MORNING.
INITIALLY SHOULD SEE WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH
PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER INLAND AREAS TUES INTO WED. CONVECTION SHOULD
BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH MID WEEK AS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE UP THE
EAST COAST. BY LATE WED INTO THURS MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CAROLINAS....MAINLY WELL INLAND. BY LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY...THE
ENTIRE TROUGH PUSHES EAST AS THE REMNANT TROPICAL LOW MOVES UP THE
COAST. SHOULD SEE ADDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS BEFORE SHIFTING OFF SHORE. FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST KEEPING GREATEST CONVECTION
FROM THE LOW WELL OFF SHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
CAROLINAS BEHIND FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE WED WELL
INLAND AND LATE THURS INTO FRI OVER MOST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN A MOISTURE RICH
AIR MASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN 90 TO
95 MOST DAYS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WILL INCLUDE MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO ALL OF THE TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KILM BETWEEN 08-12Z. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW REMAINS FROM THE N
AND NE...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD
WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO OR THROUGH THE 60S THROUGH
SUNRISE. LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO SPREAD SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THIS MAY
INHIBIT CONVECTION...BUT PROBABLY WILL STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY AROUND MAX HEATING...BEST CHANCE FLO.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD POSSIBLY CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...WINDS SURGED TO A SOLID 20 KNOTS NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS EVENING BUT APPEAR TO HAVE
STABILIZED IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ON THE LAST SET OF OBSERVATIONS.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE TIGHTEST PORTION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS RESPONSIBLE. SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS NE
NORTH CAROLINA ARE 1024 MB VERSUS 1017-ISH MB WITHIN THE OFFSHORE
LOW. SEAS AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY HAVE INCREASED TO
5 FEET...AND I CONTEMPLATED ISSUING AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR
THE SURF CITY-CAPE FEAR ZONE IF I HAD MORE CONFIDENCE THESE LARGER
SEAS WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LATEST FEW HRRR MODEL
RUNS CONFIRM RECENT RADAR TRENDS OF INCREASING SHOWERS JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR...AND I HAVE INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES FROM
CAPE FEAR SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MYRTLE BEACH OVERNIGHT ACCORDINGLY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
A HEALTHY EAST-NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE WATERS HAS PUSHED SEA
HEIGHTS TO AS HIGH AS 4 FEET AT THE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NEARSHORE
BUOY. THESE 4-FOOTERS ARE LIKELY CONFINED TO THE WATERS NEAR AND
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WHERE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT AND LONGEST
EFFECTIVE FETCH ARE CO-LOCATED. THIS IS THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. OTHERWISE OUR WEATHER
CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY LOW PRESSURE SWIRLING ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. THIS LOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY NON-FRONTAL IN
NATURE AND WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL WORK WITH THE LOW TO CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 14-17 KNOTS THIS EVENING...THEN CLOSER
TO 12 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
OVER THE WATERS SUN. WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY MON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SETTLES SOUTH.
GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING SPEEDS
10 TO 15 KT WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
DOES NOT UNDERGO ANY MEANINGFUL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH ISOLATED 4 FT POSSIBLE ALONG
OUTER EDGES OF NC ZONES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH LAND/SEA BREEZE
DOMINATING NEAR SHORE WINDS. TROPICAL LOW SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST
OF FLORIDA ON TUES AND IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH
WED INTO THURS AS TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGS DOWN AND PUSHES
EASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER AS TO INTENSITY OF THIS LOW WITH THE GFS
BEING THE WEAKEST WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS A 1013 MB LOW OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON FRI. EITHER WAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE S-SW WED NIGHT INTO THURS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS. EXPECT WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS TUES INTO WED WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WED NIGHT INTO THURS
WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT BY THURS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1226 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS PERSISTENT SHOWERS ROTATING
COUNTERCLOCKWISE ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AROUND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR BRANDON
MANITOBA. FARTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE BUT EXPECT
THESE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
SHOWERS REMAINING NEAR/ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO DEEPEN. THAT SAID...A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ENSUES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE SORTING OUT A
POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY IN THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. FOR THIS
UPDATE...FOLLOWED THE HRRR PRECIPITATION FIELD AS IT SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING THE CURRENT AREA WELL. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014
MAIN UPDATE ISSUES ARE HYDRO THIS EVENING. ALL FLOOD ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER...AN AREAL FLOOD
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN.
OVERLAND FLOODING CONTINUES IN THE WARNED AREA...MAINLY FROM
CROSBY SOUTHEAST THROUGH TIOGA TO PARSHALL AND MAKOTI...EAST TO
HIGHWAY 83 AND THEN NORTH THROUGH LOGAN...MINOT...GLENBURN AND
WESTHOPE. IN ADDITION A WARM CONVEYOR BELT PROCESS IS ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH COULD ADD AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WE AR STILL GATHERING RAINFALL REPORTS AND
CONFERRING WITH APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS AND THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER REGARDING POSSIBLE FLOODING DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE LIKELY...SO STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SITUATION.
POPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS AND
SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODEL FORECAST. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z AS A RESULT.
SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN UP AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS LED TO INCREASING
WIND SPEED AND PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO
PROG THE LOW TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING. THINK THE FLOODING THREAT SHOULD END ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE EVENING.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WINDS ON SUNDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT STALLS OVER LAKE MANITOBA. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY...LEADING TO
WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AREAWIDE BY MID-MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON WHERE AND FOR HOW LONG TO PUT OUT A WIND
ADVISORY (IF WARRANTED) FOR SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
MONDAY...GENERATING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER LOW IN EXITING THE REGION...A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BENEATH
THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...WILL
BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY.
A RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND
BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
WITH FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED NEXT 24HR...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT FROM ROUGHLY 14Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 01Z MONDAY. LOW VFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO
KISN AND KMOT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
755 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE DECAYING MCS THAT TRAVELED SOUTHEAST
THROUGH INDIANA IS A SMALL PATCH OF SHOWERS IN BUTLER COUNTY.
BEHIND WHERE THIS ACTIVITY PASSED...THE AIR MASS IS QUITE
STABLE...WITH A NEAR-COMPLETE LACK OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE
SHADOW OF THE FORMER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME UNSTABLE...BUT THE CUMULUS FIELD HAS
REMAINED RATHER FLAT. WITH NOTHING IN THE WAY OF WELL-DEFINED
FORCING OVER THE REGION...THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY HAS
BEEN KEPT DRY. AT WORST...IT SEEMS LIKE PERHAPS A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WITH LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED COVERAGE.
OF GREATER CONCERN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FROM INDIANA. AN
INTENSE MCS HAS DEVELOPED IN IOWA...AND THERE IS LITTLE TO IMPEDE
ITS RAPID PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND EVENTUALLY INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
WRF-ARW...DEPICT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ON A WEAKENING TREND
AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH INDIANA...PAST THE EDGE OF THE SPC MDT
RISK AREA. WESTERLY SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN
WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE MCS...AND THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LOSE ITS FOCUS. WHAT PROVIDES SOME CONCERN IS
THAT THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL RETAIN ITS INSTABILITY HEADING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
CONDITIONAL THREAT OF STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS MAKING IT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA SOME TIME AFTER 06Z.
THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
FAIRLY HIGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN WARM MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT SHOULD FIRST BE NOTED THAT THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST MAY
END UP CONTINGENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TO THE MCS MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS MAY LEAD TO A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN
THE DAY (IF IT WEAKENS AS FORECAST)...OR A STABILIZATION TO
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA (IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER).
THOUGH THESE SCENARIOS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THE FORECAST IS BEING
ASSEMBLED WITH THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE MONDAY NIGHT MCS WILL NOT
HAVE A LARGE DIRECT IMPACT ON TUESDAY CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM
MONDAY NIGHT TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THERE
IS ALSO A GRADIENT IN THETA-E WITH SOME DEPTH THROUGH THE LOWEST
FEW KILOMETERS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. WITH EXPECTATIONS
OF MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...A
HEAT ADVISORY (HEAT INDEX OVER 100 DEGREES) WAS REQUIRED FOR A FEW
COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAPPING. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG APPEAR
POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR. VALUES AS
HIGH AS 5000 J/KG WERE FORECAST ON THE NAM12...BUT THIS APPEARS TO
BE BASED ON AN ERRONEOUS UPPER-70S DEWPOINT FORECAST. SHEAR WILL
STILL BE MARGINAL...THOUGH INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (GETTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS FROM 0-6KM). THIS IS
CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING POSSIBLE. THE SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK COVERS THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT THE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL FOR
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WHICH SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED
BY STABILIZATION FROM ANYTHING THAT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL HAVE THE MOST INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE TIMING TO WORK WITH. ALTHOUGH THESE PARAMETERS
APPEAR FAVORABLE...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE (BOTH TRADITIONAL AND CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING) DOES NOT
GENERATE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD STORMS OR QPF...WHICH RAISES A
FEW QUESTIONS ABOUT EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BRINGS IN A LITTLE MORE A GRADIENT FOR
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS BOTH CONVECTION AND
THE WEAK FRONT MAKE THEIR WAY NW-TO-SE ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. WEAK SFC BOUNDARY NEAR OUR SE CWFA WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. DESPITE SOME EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE FLOW
ALOFT...LOW LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HAVE RELEGATED THE THUNDER THREAT ALONG AND SE OF I-71 WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST FOR THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NW TO THE MID 80S SE.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WEAK LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND SOME POST
FRONTAL SHALLOW INSTABILITY WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GOING.
THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ENDS BY THURSDAY EVENING AS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THIN. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 70S.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PUSH INTO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO SETTLE SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON ITS BACK SIDE. ITS LOOKING
LIKE A DELIGHTFUL FOURTH OF JULY IF YOU LIKE LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
UPR LVL FLOW BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LONG RANGE MODELS AS TO
HOW FAST WEAK ENERGY IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST
AND ALLOWS FOR A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MORE SUMMER TIME
TEMPERATURES. WILL TRY TO KEEP SUNDAY DRY AND THEN ALLOW FOR CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED WEAK ENERGY MAY
AFFECT US BY THEN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SC AND DENSE CI THAT AFFECTED THE TAFS EARLIER HAVE SCATTERED
OUT...LEAVING THE REGION IN VFR CONDITIONS.
MCS OUT OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL SPREAD ITS CI SHIELD
INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING. AS IS TYPICAL THE MODELS DO NOT PICK
UP ON THIS VERY WELL. NRN TAFS SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING THE BKN TO OVERCAST CI...BUT THINK THE CI WILL EXPAND DOWN
INTO CVG/LUK ALSO.
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WEAKEN THE MCS AS IT MOVES E OVERNIGHT. AS
CDFNT PUSHES INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z TUE...IT SHOULD ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY
WITH OCCUR OVER THE ERN TAFS TOMORROW AFTN AND THIS IS WHERE THE
MODELS ARE PRODUCING THE BETTER QPF. HOWEVER...FEEL THAT SOME
CONVECTION COULD POP LATE MORNING IN THE WRN TAFS...AND HAVE ADDED
THAT TO THE KDAY TAF.
THE REST OF THE TAFS SHOULD SEE THE BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION
AFT 18Z...SO HAVE CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO GROUP OF TSRA TO COVER THIS.
OUTLOOK...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ081-082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ098>100.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
726 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE
IN BY FRIDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES. CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN LAKES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
BUT EXPECT A LOT OF WEAKENING BEFORE IT APPROACHES. SMALL POPS
FINE FOR NOW.
PREVIOUS...MAIN QUESTION OVERNIGHT IS WHETHER CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD EAST AND AFFECT NORTH OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE SSEO AND MORE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION BUT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS IT APPROACHES NW OHIO. DIURNAL TIMING DOES NOT
FAVOR THE PERSISTENCE OF THE CONVECTION BUT WE WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
ESPECIALLY NEAR TOL. ELSEWHERE A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AND POPS HAVE BEEN SET TO NEAR 15 PERCENT.
RATHER HIGH DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
FORECAST PREDICTION OF A LOW FROM 70 TO 75.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE REPLACED WITH MORE SEASONAL
WEATHER BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE WILL BE RATHER ELEVATED AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL AID IN PRODUCING ROTATING STORMS.
VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM 18-20C WOULD SUGGEST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 90 BUT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY
PREVENT MAX HEATING SO WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST WITH THE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LINGERING CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY EVENING.
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST
AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED BUT TIMING THE SMALL
SCALE FEATURES ARE DIFFICULT.
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXTENDED. MODELS CONTINUE
TO FORECAST LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ENTIRE WEEKEND SHOULD BE
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON
MONDAY AS ECMWF MOVES THE RIDGE EAST AND ANOTHER FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND MAINTAINS THE RIDGE
THROUGH MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL SPIT THE DIFFERENCE AND LEAN TOWARD
CONTINUITY AND GO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CONVECTION/MCS ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA AS
IT MAKES ITS WAY EAST OVERNIGHT. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THIS TO
WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS IT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. HAVE TEMPO FOR TS
AT TOL/FDY BUT LEFT OTHERS DRY. SOME ISSUES WITH BR...BUT NOT TOO
BAD WITH A LOT OF HIGHER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. CONVECTION TO
BUBBLE UP AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT AS THE FOCUS.
INDICATED THE BEST TIMING WITH PROB30 GROUPS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SSW WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE...THEN TURN TO THE WEST
TUESDAY AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVES ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME CHOPPY ON THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE LAKE WED TURNING THE WINDS NW BUT WIND
SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS AS THE
WEATHER SYSTEMS WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE FRI TO
CALM THE WINDS FOR FRI NIGHT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
631 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN
HIGH AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLOODING EVENTS THIS EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON
MONDAY WITH A TREND BACK TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 630 PM EDT SUNDAY... PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED WEATHER AND POPS STILL
APPLY BUT POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED OVER WESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR
EXPANSIVE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FOLLOWING CONVECTIVE STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
AT 430 PM EDT SUNDAY... FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVECTIVE STORMS
AND ASSOCIATED AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WERE MOVING INTO TO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS FEEDING ON CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG IN A
TONGUE OF HIGH ENERGY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO WESTERN
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. HRRR HAS A
REASONABLE... BUT FAR FROM EXACT... DEPICTION OF THE CONVECTION. THE
HRRR TREND FITS THE FORECAST CAPE FIELD WHICH FOLLOWS A TYPICAL
DIURNAL DOWNWARD TREND AROUND SUNSET AND DURING THE SUBSEQUENT
HOURS. WILL LOWER POPS ACCORDINGLY DURING THE EVENING. HMT-SOUTHEAST
PROFILERS IN THE FOOTHILLS INDICATE A VERY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE BUT LIGHT WINDS BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE TERRAIN
ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 3K FEET. CAPE VALUES REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER
EASTERN ZONES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OTHER THAN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...LEADING TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING..CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK...AND MOVING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST. A
SURFACE LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH OFF THE FL COAST IS BEING
MONITORED BY NHC FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS...PRESENTING
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY
PRESENT...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED OF GREAT CONCERN. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE. DAYBREAK FOG WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...
AND RAIN SOAKED AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
INSTABILITY IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY GREATER ON MONDAY...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...STEERING FLOW REMAINS WEAK...AND HEAVY RAIN STILL
REMAINS A CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING CONVECTION PROVOKED BY THE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE. DESPITE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF
THE UPPER RIDGE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER AS
THE AIR MASS MODIFIES AND SW FLOW ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY. FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A S/W WILL BE CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE HAVING
THE OPPORTUNITY TO INTERCEPT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT DID NOT HAVE THE ATMOSPHERE WORKED OVER DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. WE WILL THEN ALLOW POPS TO LOWER DURING THE
WEE HOURS MONDAY/PREDAWN TUESDAY...AS THE S/W PASSES BY AND
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.
ON TUESDAY WE ARE CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF DUAL AMPLIFYING TROFS TO
OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST...AND THE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. IT APPEARS WE MAY BE IN A CONVECTIVE LULL WITH INHIBITION
NOTED ON VARIOUS SOUNDINGS...EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE HAVE
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ALBEIT A TAD HIGHER IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE SOME MINOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED...AND
SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS. H85 THERMAL PATTERN SUGGESTS TEMPS ON
THE WAY UP TUESDAY...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NEARLY ALL GUIDE
TEMPERATURE PACKAGES.
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION TUESDAY EVENING WILL END WITH LOSS OF
HEATING FOLLOWED BY FAIR SKIES.
A BIT MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY WITH LESS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...
CONSIDERABLE "FAT" LOOKING CAPE...AND SOME WEAK BOUNDARY DRIFTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE HAVE EDGED POPS UPWARD INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH A VERY WARM AND JUICY AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE.
MEANWHILE...APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 95 TO 100 DEGREES...IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC/UPSTATE
SC AND PARTS OF NE GEORGIA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT STILL VERY GOOD ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE. A SLOW-MOVING TROF AXIS SHUD ENTER THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY...THEN GRADUALLY CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND EAST COAST FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. THIS TROF IS
EXPECTED TO PICK UP A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (WHICH MAY BE A TROPICAL
STORM OR HURRICANE BY THEN)...FROM THE FL ATLANTIC COAST REGION. THE
LATEST NHC FCST IS CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WITH A LIKELY TROPICAL
STORM LIFTING NE JUST OFFSHORE...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. SO AT THIS
TIME...STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT IMPACT FROM THAT SYSTEM. AS
FOR THE FRONT ITSELF...GUIDANCE SHOWS ENHANCED CAPE IN THE WARM
SECTOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BNDRY...WITH DECENT QPF RESPONSE.
TAKING A BLEND OF WPC GRIDS AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS...POPS WERE
BUMPED UP TO HIGH-END CHC TO LOW-LIKELY FOR THURSDAY ACRS PRETTY
MUCH THE ENTIRE CWFA.
SOME DRIER AIR AND FALLING THICKNESSES SHUD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO BELOW NORMAL
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...REMOVED -TSRA TEMPO FROM TAF. CAPE IS MARGINAL FOR
CONVECTIVE STORMS AT THE PRESENT TIME AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT
DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE AERODROME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
WILL BE MONITORED AS THEY DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAKING
IT HARD TO PIN DOWN A DIRECTION. WIND SHOULD BE EITHER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR FAVOR AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. LAMP FAVORS SOUTH OF
EAST... SO THAT IS THE CURRENT DIRECTION IN THE TAF. DIRECTION
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AND TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY
MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF DAYBREAK FOG...BUT IF
RAIN FALLS TONIGHT... RESTRICITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS ALREADY BOILING UP IN THE MOUNTAINS N OF
KAVL AND NW OF KHKY. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FEATURE WOULD DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS IN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE CARRIED IN ALL THE TAFS. NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND SW ON
MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF FOG IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND RESTRICITONS WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL AT DAWN. IF
HEAVY RAIN FALLS AT FOOTHILLS SITES...RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR THERE
TOO. GUIDANCE DID NOT SUPPORT CIG RESTRICITIONS...BUT RAINFALL COULD
CHANGE THAT SITUATION AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH MORNING CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
22-04Z 04-10Z 10-16Z 16-22Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 97% HIGH 98% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 92% HIGH 84% HIGH 93% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 87% HIGH 85% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 97% HIGH 96% HIGH 96% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 90% MED 77% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JAT/LGL
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JAT/LGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
506 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN
HIGH AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLOODING EVENTS THIS EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON
MONDAY WITH A TREND BACK TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 430 PM EDT SUNDAY... FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVECTIVE STORMS
AND ASSOCIATED AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WERE MOVING INTO TO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS FEEDING ON CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG IN A
TONGUE OF HIGH ENERGY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO WESTERN
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. HRRR HAS A
REASONABLE... BUT FAR FROM EXACT... DEPICTION OF THE CONVECTION. THE
HRRR TREND FITS THE FORECAST CAPE FIELD WHICH FOLLOWS A TYPICAL
DIURNAL DOWNWARD TREND AROUND SUNSET AND DURING THE SUBSEQUENT
HOURS. WILL LOWER POPS ACCORDINGLY DURING THE EVENING. HMT-SOUTHEAST
PROFILERS IN THE FOOTHILLS INDICATE A VERY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE BUT LIGHT WINDS BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE TERRAIN
ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 3K FEET. CAPE VALUES REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER
EASTERN ZONES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OTHER THAN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...LEADING TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING..CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK...AND MOVING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST. A
SURFACE LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH OFF THE FL COAST IS BEING
MONITORED BY NHC FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS...PRESENTING
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY
PRESENT...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED OF GREAT CONCERN. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE. DAYBREAK FOG WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...
AND RAIN SOAKED AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
INSTABILITY IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY GREATER ON MONDAY...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...STEERING FLOW REMAINS WEAK...AND HEAVY RAIN STILL
REMAINS A CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING CONVECTION PROVOKED BY THE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE. DESPITE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF
THE UPPER RIDGE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER AS
THE AIR MASS MODIFIES AND SW FLOW ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY. FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A S/W WILL BE CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE HAVING
THE OPPORTUNITY TO INTERCEPT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT DID NOT HAVE THE ATMOSPHERE WORKED OVER DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. WE WILL THEN ALLOW POPS TO LOWER DURING THE
WEE HOURS MONDAY/PREDAWN TUESDAY...AS THE S/W PASSES BY AND
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.
ON TUESDAY WE ARE CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF DUAL AMPLIFYING TROFS TO
OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST...AND THE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. IT APPEARS WE MAY BE IN A CONVECTIVE LULL WITH INHIBITION
NOTED ON VARIOUS SOUNDINGS...EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE HAVE
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ALBEIT A TAD HIGHER IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE SOME MINOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED...AND
SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS. H85 THERMAL PATTERN SUGGESTS TEMPS ON
THE WAY UP TUESDAY...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NEARLY ALL GUIDE
TEMPERATURE PACKAGES.
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION TUESDAY EVENING WILL END WITH LOSS OF
HEATING FOLLOWED BY FAIR SKIES.
A BIT MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY WITH LESS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...
CONSIDERABLE "FAT" LOOKING CAPE...AND SOME WEAK BOUNDARY DRIFTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE HAVE EDGED POPS UPWARD INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH A VERY WARM AND JUICY AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE.
MEANWHILE...APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 95 TO 100 DEGREES...IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC/UPSTATE
SC AND PARTS OF NE GEORGIA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT STILL VERY GOOD ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE. A SLOW-MOVING TROF AXIS SHUD ENTER THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY...THEN GRADUALLY CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND EAST COAST FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. THIS TROF IS
EXPECTED TO PICK UP A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (WHICH MAY BE A TROPICAL
STORM OR HURRICANE BY THEN)...FROM THE FL ATLANTIC COAST REGION. THE
LATEST NHC FCST IS CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WITH A LIKELY TROPICAL
STORM LIFTING NE JUST OFFSHORE...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. SO AT THIS
TIME...STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT IMPACT FROM THAT SYSTEM. AS
FOR THE FRONT ITSELF...GUIDANCE SHOWS ENHANCED CAPE IN THE WARM
SECTOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BNDRY...WITH DECENT QPF RESPONSE.
TAKING A BLEND OF WPC GRIDS AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS...POPS WERE
BUMPED UP TO HIGH-END CHC TO LOW-LIKELY FOR THURSDAY ACRS PRETTY
MUCH THE ENTIRE CWFA.
SOME DRIER AIR AND FALLING THICKNESSES SHUD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO BELOW NORMAL
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...REMOVED -TSRA TEMPO FROM TAF. CAPE IS MARGINAL FOR
CONVECTIVE STORMS AT THE PRESENT TIME AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT
DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE AERODROME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
WILL BE MONITORED AS THEY DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAKING
IT HARD TO PIN DOWN A DIRECTION. WIND SHOULD BE EITHER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR FAVOR AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. LAMP FAVORS SOUTH OF
EAST... SO THAT IS THE CURRENT DIRECTION IN THE TAF. DIRECTION
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AND TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY
MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF DAYBREAK FOG...BUT IF
RAIN FALLS TONIGHT... RESTRICITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS ALREADY BOILING UP IN THE MOUNTAINS N OF
KAVL AND NW OF KHKY. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FEATURE WOULD DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS IN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE CARRIED IN ALL THE TAFS. NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND SW ON
MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF FOG IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND RESTRICITONS WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL AT DAWN. IF
HEAVY RAIN FALLS AT FOOTHILLS SITES...RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR THERE
TOO. GUIDANCE DID NOT SUPPORT CIG RESTRICITIONS...BUT RAINFALL COULD
CHANGE THAT SITUATION AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH MORNING CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 86% HIGH 89% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 99% HIGH 95% HIGH 84% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 98% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 95% MED 76% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JAT/LGL
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JAT/LGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
438 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN
HIGH AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLOODING EVENTS THIS EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON
MONDAY WITH A TREND BACK TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 430 PM EDT SUNDAY... FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVECTIVE STORMS
AND ASSOCIATED AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WERE MOVING INTO TO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS FEEDING ON CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG IN A
TONGUE OF HIGH ENERGY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO WESTERN
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. HRRR HAS A
REASONABLE... BUT FAR FROM EXACT... DEPICTION OF THE CONVECTION. THE
HRRR TREND FITS THE FORECAST CAPE FIELD WHICH FOLLOWS A TYPICAL
DIURNAL DOWNWARD TREND AROUND SUNSET AND DURING THE SUBSEQUENT
HOURS. WILL LOWER POPS ACCORDINGLY DURING THE EVENING. HMT-SOUTHEAST
PROFILERS IN THE FOOTHILLS INDICATE A VERY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE BUT LIGHT WINDS BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE TERRAIN
ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 3K FEET. CAPE VALUES REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER
EASTERN ZONES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OTHER THAN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...LEADING TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING..CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK...AND MOVING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST. A
SURFACE LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH OFF THE FL COAST IS BEING
MONITORED BY NHC FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS...PRESENTING
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY
PRESENT...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED OF GREAT CONCERN. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE. DAYBREAK FOG WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...
AND RAIN SOAKED AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
INSTABILITY IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY GREATER ON MONDAY...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...STEERING FLOW REMAINS WEAK...AND HEAVY RAIN STILL
REMAINS A CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING CONVECTION PROVOKED BY THE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE. DESPITE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF
THE UPPER RIDGE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER AS
THE AIR MASS MODIFIES AND SW FLOW ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY. FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A S/W WILL BE CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE HAVING
THE OPPORTUNITY TO INTERCEPT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT DID NOT HAVE THE ATMOSPHERE WORKED OVER DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. WE WILL THEN ALLOW POPS TO LOWER DURING THE
WEE HOURS MONDAY/PREDAWN TUESDAY...AS THE S/W PASSES BY AND
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.
ON TUESDAY WE ARE CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF DUAL AMPLIFYING TROFS TO
OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST...AND THE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. IT APPEARS WE MAY BE IN A CONVECTIVE LULL WITH INHIBITION
NOTED ON VARIOUS SOUNDINGS...EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE HAVE
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ALBEIT A TAD HIGHER IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE SOME MINOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED...AND
SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS. H85 THERMAL PATTERN SUGGESTS TEMPS ON
THE WAY UP TUESDAY...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NEARLY ALL GUIDE
TEMPERATURE PACKAGES.
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION TUESDAY EVENING WILL END WITH LOSS OF
HEATING FOLLOWED BY FAIR SKIES.
A BIT MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY WITH LESS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...
CONSIDERABLE "FAT" LOOKING CAPE...AND SOME WEAK BOUNDARY DRIFTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE HAVE EDGED POPS UPWARD INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH A VERY WARM AND JUICY AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE.
MEANWHILE...APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 95 TO 100 DEGREES...IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC/UPSTATE
SC AND PARTS OF NE GEORGIA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT STILL VERY GOOD ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE. A SLOW-MOVING TROF AXIS SHUD ENTER THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY...THEN GRADUALLY CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND EAST COAST FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. THIS TROF IS
EXPECTED TO PICK UP A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (WHICH MAY BE A TROPICAL
STORM OR HURRICANE BY THEN)...FROM THE FL ATLANTIC COAST REGION. THE
LATEST NHC FCST IS CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WITH A LIKELY TROPICAL
STORM LIFTING NE JUST OFFSHORE...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. SO AT THIS
TIME...STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT IMPACT FROM THAT SYSTEM. AS
FOR THE FRONT ITSELF...GUIDANCE SHOWS ENHANCED CAPE IN THE WARM
SECTOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BNDRY...WITH DECENT QPF RESPONSE.
TAKING A BLEND OF WPC GRIDS AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS...POPS WERE
BUMPED UP TO HIGH-END CHC TO LOW-LIKELY FOR THURSDAY ACRS PRETTY
MUCH THE ENTIRE CWFA.
SOME DRIER AIR AND FALLING THICKNESSES SHUD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO BELOW NORMAL
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...ALTHOUGH A BAND OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE WELL WET OF
THE FIELD...ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SLOWLY EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CONVECTION WILL BE CARRIED
IN THE TAF. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER FORM NE TO SE THIS
TONIGHT...AND TO SW ON MONDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF DAYBREAK FOG...BUT IF ENOUGH RAIN FALLS THIS
AFTERNOON...RESTRICITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS ALREADY BOILING UP IN THE MOUNTAINS N OF
KAVL AND NW OF KHKY. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FEATURE WOULD DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS IN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE CARRIED IN ALL THE TAFS. NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND SW ON
MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF FOG IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND RESTRICITONS WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL AT DAWN. IF
HEAVY RAIN FALLS AT FOOTHILLS SITES...RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR THERE
TOO. GUIDANCE DID NOT SUPPORT CIG RESTRICITIONS...BUT RAINFALL COULD
CHANGE THAT SITUATION AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH MORNING CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 84% HIGH 89% HIGH 93% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 98% HIGH 95% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 69% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JAT/LGL
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1115 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2014
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THAT LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW
TWO SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...AND THE 00Z
KUNR SOUNDING HAD 659 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUS...PRECIP WAS LINGERING
A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE PRECIP TREND
HAS BEEN DOWNWARD...CONSISTENT WITH HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE. THUS
EXPECT PRECIP TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ACROSS SCNTRL ND
SLIDING NORTHWARD. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES STRETCHING FROM
YELLOWSTONE TO THE BLKHLS ARE SLIDING EASTWARD BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CNTRL ND WITH W/NW FLOW
ACROSS THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CROSSING
MUCH OF WRN SD.
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN EARLY THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL
COOLING SETS IN. THINK THE PRECIP WILL BE DONE BY 03Z. WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL KEEP THIS LOW TOP CONVECTION FROM
BECOMING SEVERE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT WITH TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.
UPPER LOW WILL GET WRAPPED UP AND STALLED OUT NORTH OF ND SUNDAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER MID-LEVELS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE ENOUGH TO HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS SUNDAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S. WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW STACKING BELOW THE UPPER
LOW...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR BREEZY W/NW
WINDS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SD. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2014
A TIGHTLY WOUND LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN AT BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL GENERATE SOME BREEZY WINDS BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE. THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
EXIT THE PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A BROAD RIDGE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S IN MANY PLACES IN THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THE 90S FRIDAY. A WEAK BREAK
THROUGH SHORT WAVE WILL GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAJECTORY MOSTLY DRY FOR
THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SD BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BUNKERS
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...HELGESON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
547 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...DISCUSSION VALID THROUGH 06Z
CONVECTION CURRENTLY JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF NASHVILLE PRODUCED
WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH AROUND THE LEBANON AREA LAST HALF HOUR
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ONE LEBANON OBSERVER MEASURED 1.22
INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN A 30 MINUTE PERIOD ENDING AT 530 PM CAUSING
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS. AS BE SEEN IN MOSAIC MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE CONVECTION IS NOW IN EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
ALONG PLATEAU. AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 ARE CURRENTLY FREE OF
CONVECTION. LOOKING AT LATEST RUC RUN MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS IS
DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AS DEPICTED BY 700 MBARS BY WIND AND
HEIGHT FIELDS. SHORT WAVE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIP EASTWARD THIS
EVENING KEEPING CONVECTION CHANCES MAINLY EASTERN MIDDLE AND
PLATEAU AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z. AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 LIKELY
TO REMAIN DRY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
349 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
DISCUSSION...
EARLIER MCS...WHICH PLAGUED WESTERN AREAS OF THE STATE...IS SHOWING
A DEFINITIVE DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR FURTHER
CONCURS WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. OTW...DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT AND SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE PLATEAU AREA. MODELS AGREE
WITH ELEVATING MOISTURE LEVELS TOWARD 12Z ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
FURTHERMORE...DIVERGENCE FIELDS ARE FAVORABLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE EAST. SO ALL IN ALL...POPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FROM 30-50%.
BEST CHANCE EAST LATE...BEST CHANCE WEST EARLY.
MOVING ON...MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A PATTERN CHANGE
THAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT. UPPER RIDGING...SW-NE IN
ORIENTATION...WILL TAKE HOLD AND ALLOW POPS TO DECREASE AND TEMPS TO
WARM. HOWEVER...CAPES WILL BE RATHER LARGE ON MON AFT...BUT THIS
WILL BE DISMISSED AS GFS DEWPOINT VALUES ARE OUT TO LUNCH. WILL THUS
FAVOR THE LOWER NUMERICALLY SUGGESTED DEWPOINTS...KEEPING THE CAPES
AT A MORE RESPECTABLE LEVEL. POPS FOR MONDAY WILL BE 20 PERCENT OR
SO. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TRANQUIL.
ON TUESDAY...BOUNDARY WILL SAG OUR WAY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF TN AS RIDGING TO THE SOUTH HOLDS FIRM. WILL INCLUDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS NORTH ONLY FOR TUES AFT. A
SLIGHT CHANCE WILL ALSO BE INCLUDED FOR TUES NT AS WELL BUT THE
BOUNDARY DOES NOT LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH TN BEFORE
THURSDAY.
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...A WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY IN
EARNEST ON MONDAY. MAV STILL REMAINS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH MAX TEMPS
SO WILL UNDERCUT THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS BY A COUPLE DEGREES. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL ALSO BE UP AS AFT DEWPOINTS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO 70
DEGREES. THIS WILL ACT TO KICK IN THE HEAT INDEX INFLUENCE...95 TO
100 IN THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE EXTENDED FCST...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE POPS ARE SUPPRESSED. AT THAT
TIME...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WITH PLENTY OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO WORK WITH. ON THURSDAY...MODELS WANT TO HURRY
THE FRONT SOUTHWARD BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERLY PRECIPITOUS. WILL
THEREFORE INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY. THIS
IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BECAUSE TEMPORALLY SPEAKING...THE GFS IS
LOOKING LIKE A REAL TRAIN WRECK IN TERMS OF PREDICTING THE TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT WAS TRENDING TOWARD DELAY AND NOW ITS
BECOMING FASTER.
MOST IMPORTANTLY...THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND LOOKS FABULOUS AT THIS
POINT. NO PRECIP CHANCES...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...HIGHS IN THE 80S LOWS IN THE 60S WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE
HUMIDITY. SHOULD BE NICE...BUT AS ALWAYS...WATCH OUT FOR THE MODEL
FLIM-FLAM WHICH CAN ALWAYS REAR ITS UGLY HEAD...CREATING THE NEED
FOR FUTURE FCST MODS.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 71 90 73 94 / 40 20 05 20
CLARKSVILLE 70 91 72 94 / 30 20 05 20
CROSSVILLE 67 84 68 88 / 50 30 10 20
COLUMBIA 71 91 72 95 / 40 20 05 10
LAWRENCEBURG 71 91 70 94 / 40 20 10 10
WAVERLY 70 91 72 94 / 30 20 05 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1233 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ ANCHORED
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. THIS PROLIFIC RAIN PRODUCING
MCS CONTINUES TO BE FED BY A NOCTURNAL 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
STREAK...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG... AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. LATEST WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/88D VWP TRENDS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE
STARTING TO WEAKEN WITH CLOUD TOPS SLOWLY WARMING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SUGGEST THE MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE LATEST 12Z WRF AND PERHAPS THE 06Z GFS
INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL WAIT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z
MODEL GUIDANCE TO ARRIVE BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY POTENTIAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE
BY 7 PM THIS EVENING.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH....
TODAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS MOVING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. EARLIER CONVECTION HAS SET UP AN AREA OF RAIN COOLED AIR
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH RESULTING IN A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN
ARKANSAS TO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. MEANWHILE A SWLY 35 KT LLJ IS
ADVECTING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THAT BOUNDARY GENERATING
NUMEROUS ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. THE 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP H20 VALUE OF 2.03
INCHES SO RAINFALL RATES ARE QUITE HEAVY WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
COMMON. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN ANCHORED FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AND CONTINUES TO BACK BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THIS
MORNING...THOUGH CONTINUED THE WATCH THROUGH 00Z TO COVER ANY
AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT AS DEPICTED IN THE 05Z HRRR. BESIDES THE
FLOODING THREAT A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. OPTED FOR THE COOLER MET TEMPS TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP. PRECIP CHANCES WILL START TAILING OFF FROM THE WEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEAR THE TN RIVER FOLLOWED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AND CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL BE MILD...LOWER TO MID 70S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND WARM AIR SURGES
INTO THE REGION. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS 925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
26C BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
THOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT ALOFT THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
QUITE HUMID WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S RESULTING IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY....AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS KICKS
IT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH...COOLER ALONG THE MO/KY
BORDER. BY THURSDAY COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN
PUSHING TO THE SOUTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS PERIOD...INCLUDING
INDEPENDENCE DAY...LOOKS PRETTY SPECTACULAR ATTM. OF COURSE THAT
HAS BEEN SAID A LOT ABOUT BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS 6-7 DAYS OUT. THE
00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO THAT HELPS BOLSTER THE CASE
WHICH POINTS TOWARD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND DRY
N/NE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS COME TO AN END AT JBR...MKL AND
MEM...STEADY LIGHTER RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MKL
WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TUP FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT PERIODS OF IFR TO MVFR VIS DUE TO
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT PREVAILING VFR. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS LOW. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST
TENNESSEE...ESPECIALLY NEAR TUP AND MKL. WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR NOW
AT THESE SITES AND LEAVE MEM AND JBR RAIN FREE. LOW CLOUDS MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. PREVAILING WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY BUT LIKELY VARY IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-
TUNICA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-
CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ ANCHORED
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. THIS PROLIFIC RAIN PRODUCING
MCS CONTINUES TO BE FED BY A NOCTURNAL 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
STREAK...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG... AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. LATEST WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/88D VWP TRENDS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE
STARTING TO WEAKEN WITH CLOUD TOPS SLOWLY WARMING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SUGGEST THE MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE LATEST 12Z WRF AND PERHAPS THE 06Z GFS
INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL WAIT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z
MODEL GUIDANCE TO ARRIVE BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY POTENTIAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE
BY 7 PM THIS EVENING.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...
.FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH....
TODAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS MOVING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. EARLIER CONVECTION HAS SET UP AN AREA OF RAIN COOLED AIR
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH RESULTING IN A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN
ARKANSAS TO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. MEANWHILE A SWLY 35 KT LLJ IS
ADVECTING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THAT BOUNDARY GENERATING
NUMEROUS ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. THE 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP H20 VALUE OF 2.03
INCHES SO RAINFALL RATES ARE QUITE HEAVY WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
COMMON. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN ANCHORED FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AND CONTINUES TO BACK BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THIS
MORNING...THOUGH CONTINUED THE WATCH THROUGH 00Z TO COVER ANY
AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT AS DEPICTED IN THE 05Z HRRR. BESIDES THE
FLOODING THREAT A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. OPTED FOR THE COOLER MET TEMPS TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP. PRECIP CHANCES WILL START TAILING OFF FROM THE WEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEAR THE TN RIVER FOLLOWED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AND CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL BE MILD...LOWER TO MID 70S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND WARM AIR SURGES
INTO THE REGION. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS 925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
26C BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
THOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT ALOFT THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
QUITE HUMID WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S RESULTING IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY....AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS KICKS
IT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH...COOLER ALONG THE MO/KY
BORDER. BY THURSDAY COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN
PUSHING TO THE SOUTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS PERIOD...INCLUDING
INDEPENDENCE DAY...LOOKS PRETTY SPECTACULAR ATTM. OF COURSE THAT
HAS BEEN SAID A LOT ABOUT BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS 6-7 DAYS OUT. THE
00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO THAT HELPS BOLSTER THE CASE
WHICH POINTS TOWARD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND DRY
N/NE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
MEM...JBR...AND MKL...WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS/VIS. STORM COMPLEX IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE NOON WITH SITES BECOMING
PREDOMINATELY VFR. CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
COVERAGE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY EARLY
EVENING AS DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR LATE
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG FORMING AT MKL AND TUP. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-8 KTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL INCREASE TO
8-16 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT MEM AND JBR. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
TO 5-10 KTS DEPENDING ON SITE BY SUNSET.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-
TUNICA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-
CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1021 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ ANCHORED
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. THIS PROLIFIC RAIN PRODUCING
MCS CONTINUES TO BE FED BY A NOCTURNAL 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
STREAK...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG... AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. LATEST WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/88D VWP TRENDS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE
STARTING TO WEAKEN WITH CLOUD TOPS SLOWLY WARMING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SUGGEST THE MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE LATEST 12Z WRF AND PERHAPS THE 06Z GFS
INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS COULD RESULT POTENTIALLY RESULT IN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL WAIT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z
MODEL GUIDANCE TO ARRIVE BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY POTENTIAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE
BY 7 PM THIS EVENING.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...
.FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH....
TODAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS MOVING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. EARLIER CONVECTION HAS SET UP AN AREA OF RAIN COOLED AIR
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH RESULTING IN A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN
ARKANSAS TO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. MEANWHILE A SWLY 35 KT LLJ IS
ADVECTING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THAT BOUNDARY GENERATING
NUMEROUS ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. THE 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP H20 VALUE OF 2.03
INCHES SO RAINFALL RATES ARE QUITE HEAVY WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
COMMON. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN ANCHORED FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AND CONTINUES TO BACK BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THIS
MORNING...THOUGH CONTINUED THE WATCH THROUGH 00Z TO COVER ANY
AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT AS DEPICTED IN THE 05Z HRRR. BESIDES THE
FLOODING THREAT A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. OPTED FOR THE COOLER MET TEMPS TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP. PRECIP CHANCES WILL START TAILING OFF FROM THE WEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEAR THE TN RIVER FOLLOWED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AND CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL BE MILD...LOWER TO MID 70S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND WARM AIR SURGES
INTO THE REGION. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS 925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
26C BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
THOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT ALOFT THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
QUITE HUMID WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S RESULTING IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY....AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS KICKS
IT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH...COOLER ALONG THE MO/KY
BORDER. BY THURSDAY COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN
PUSHING TO THE SOUTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS PERIOD...INCLUDING
INDEPENDENCE DAY...LOOKS PRETTY SPECTACULAR ATTM. OF COURSE THAT
HAS BEEN SAID A LOT ABOUT BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS 6-7 DAYS OUT. THE
00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO THAT HELPS BOLSTER THE CASE
WHICH POINTS TOWARD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND DRY
N/NE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
MEM...JBR...AND MKL...WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS/VIS. STORM COMPLEX IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE NOON WITH SITES BECOMING
PREDOMINATELY VFR. CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
COVERAGE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY EARLY
EVENING AS DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR LATE
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG FORMING AT MKL AND TUP. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-8 KTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL INCREASE TO
8-16 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT MEM AND JBR. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
TO 5-10 KTS DEPENDING ON SITE BY SUNSET.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-
TUNICA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-
CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1011 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ONGOING OVER MIDDLE
TN...MOVING NE. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST RAP AND
HRRR RUNS...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE BETTER THAN
SCATTERED. THUS WILL RAISE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.7 AND TALL SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE
COMMON...WITH LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED
PRECIP AND CLOUDS. THE CONVECTIVELY- INDUCED VORT MAX NOW OVER WEST
TN IS SHOWN BY THE RAP AND NAM TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT...AND
WILL ALSO RAISE POPS A BIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1032 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
BOOKEND VORTEX ON THE NRN END OF THE LARGE BOWING MCS WL SKIRT BY
JUST S OF MANITOWOC COUNTY AND INTO OUR NSH WATERS. ALREADY HAVE
SMW OUT ON THAT...AND MAY NEED TO EXTEND TO GET THE FEATURE OUT TO
MID-LAKE.
MODEST WAKE-LOW WINDS CONT ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN. MANUAL
CHECK ON THE CLI AWOS REVEALED A GUST TO 31 KTS...AND SFC PRESSURE
FALL CENTER STILL SHIFTG EWD ACRS THE AREA. WL CONT TO MENTION
35-40 MPH WINDS ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN AS IT SHIFTS EWD
ACRS E-C WI.
THUS FAR...HAVE HAD PRETTY STEADY EWD MVMT OF THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PCPN. BUT WITH BACKING UPR FLOW AHEAD OF SHRTWV APPROACHING FM
THE W...WE WL PROBABLY SEE A SLOWING OF THE EWD PROGRESS. SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED THAT NEW DEVELOPMENT WL EVENTUALLY OCCUR AND RIDE BACK
ACRS E-C WI...THOUGH THE ATM ACRS THE AREA SHOULD BE PRETTY WELL
OVERTURNED BY THE CURRENT AREA OF CONVECTION...SO IT WOULD
PROBABLY JUST BE SHRA. ADJUSTED FCST TO PULL PCPN FM THE NW 2/3
OF THE FCST AREA...AND DECREASED POPS IN THE E BEHIND THE CURRENT
MCS. BUT NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST LOW POPS IN THE FAR E INTO THE NGT
GIVEN SHRTWV APPROACHING FM THE W.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
THE STORMS OVER THE NERN PORTION OF THE MKX FCST AREA HAVE
WEAKENED. THE CHCS FOR ANY SVR RISK WORKING INTO THE SE PART OF
THE FCST AREA WERE RAPIDLY WANING.
MEANWHILE BACK TO THE W...THE WAKE LOW WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENTLY ARND 30 KTS AT THE OBSERVING SITES IN CENTRAL WI.
THOSE WINDS WL SHIFT EWD WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN. WL CARRY
THE GUSTY SSE WINDS INTO E-C WI ON THE NEW SPS AND THE NEXT FCST
UPDATE COMING OUT IN A BIT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 508 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
CLUSTER OF STRONGER STORMS LIFTG NE ACRS COLUMBIA COUNTY LOOKS TO
BE HEADED FOR MANITOWOC COUNTY. THAT COULD BRING A SVR RISK TO THE
FAR SE PART OF THE FCST AREA. THE MAIN BOOKEND VORTEX WITH THE
BOW REMAINS ON A TRAJECTORY TO STAY S OF THE AREA.
PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR 35-40 KT WAKE-LOW WIND GUSTS
GETTING INTO THE SW PART OF THE FCST AREA. PLAN TO HANDLE WITH SPS
AND GRIDS/MAIN FCST PRODUCTS FOR NOW. MAX WIND GUSTS WL OCCUR
RIGHT AT THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN...WHERE THE SHARP REFLECTIVITY
GRADIENT IS LOCATED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
OVERALL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HAS
BECOME APPARENT. DERECHO PRODUCING MCS WL RACE EWD ACRS SRN WI/NRN
IL WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES. CLEARLY
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM WL PASS TO OUR S. MAIN CONCERNS NOW ARE
WHETHER OR NOT E-C WI GETS NICKED BY THE NRN END OF THE
SYSTEM...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WAKE- OW INDUCED WIND GUSTS BEHIND
THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.
RECENT HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS
OVERLAYED ON CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SUGGEST MAIN BOOKEND VORTEX ON
THE NRN END OF THE LARGE BOW SHOULD TURN NEWD AND MV/EVOLVE TOWARD
THE SERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. BUT THIS HAS YET TO HAPPEN. UNLESS
A TURN TO THE NE OCCURS SOON...IT WL BE TOO LATE TO BRING THE
STG/SVR PORTION OF THE MCS INTO THE FCST AREA.
SECOND CONCERN IS WAKE-LOW INDUCED WIND GUSTS. THE NEAREST OF
THOSE THUS FAR HAVE BEEN ACRS NERN IA. THOSE TYPICALLY DEVELOP
RIGHT AT THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN...WHEN THE TRAILING PORTION OF
THE PCPN STARTS TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE. WL BE WATCHING TO SEE
WHETHER ANY OF THOSE TRENDS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE WORKING TOWARD THE
FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVENING.
ELSEHWERE...DEEP MIXING INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT RESULTED IN
GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW POWER OUTAGES OVER N-C WI. HANDLED THOSE BY
BUMPING UP WINDS IN THE FCST...AND NOW THAT MID/HIGH CLD SHIELD
HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COMPLEX
WEATHER EVOLUTION UNFOLDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OCCLUDED
FRONT OR MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL UPPER
PENINSULA TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WITH NEAR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS OVER N-C WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...CONVECTION HAS YET TO
FIRE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE 18Z GRB SOUNDING
SHOWED TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BETWEEN 750-550MB...RESULTING IN A
CAP OF AROUND 60 J/KG...THOUGH ML CAPES ARE GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG.
LIGHT RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A POTENT MCS
THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY OVER WESTERN IOWA. THIS MCS HAS SHOWN
NO SIGNS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST DESPITE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE FRONT AND MCS MOVE
EAST...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE MCS AND
SHORTWAVE FARTHER WEST MAY HELP TO REDUCE THE CAP OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. IF THE MCS STARTS A MORE NE TRACK DUE TO BACKING WIND
FIELDS ALOFT...ASCENT WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. BUT ITS STILL NOT CLEAR IF THIS NE TRACK WILL OCCUR OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM BEFORE LIGHT RAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE MCS ARRIVES. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUTOMA TO GREEN BAY TO ALGOMA. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. BUT ITS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND POINTS SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED TO THE DAY.
TONIGHT...FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE GFS AND HRRR...HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD PROMOTE THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND IOWA TRACKING ENE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. IF LIGHT RAIN DOES NOT EXTEND INTO AREAS
FROM WAUTOMA TO GREEN BAY TO ALGOMA THIS AFTERNOON...HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF THE MCS COULD BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE CAP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS
CORRIDOR. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR AS
INSTABILITY IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE...AND THE STRONGEST CONVECTION USUALLY FOLLOWS THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY. DUE TO THE STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT (45-55KTS OF 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR)...WILL HAVE TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE EVENING...THOUGH FEELING IS THAT MOST OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ISOLATED
COVERAGE REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN ASSUMING THE LIGHT
RAIN DOES NOT HOLD TOGETHER TO MAKE IT INTO THIS AREA. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THOUGH THIS SHOULD
BE CONFINE TO THE WAUTOMA TO ALGOMA AREAS. ONCE THE PRECIP EXITS NE
WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE EVENING...DRY SLOTTING SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD. THEN LOW STRATUS WILL
APPROACH N-C WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGHING WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL PROMOTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD HAVE GREATER COVERAGE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 70S
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
MAIN FOCUS ON SHORT-TERM SEVERE/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SO WILL BE BRIEF WITH EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION. MAIN
CONCERNS ARE LOW-END PCPN THREATS...AND A RETURN TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS FOR A FEW DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CYCLONIC NW FLOW AT THE SFC WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO MIDWEEK. CAA
AND CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (4TH OF JULY)...BRINGING ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY AND PLEASANT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE PERFECT FOR 4TH OF JULY FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS.
THE SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...WITH RETURN FLOW ALLOWING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. MOST MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED NEAR A WARM FRONT OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN IL OVER
THE WEEKEND...SO 20-30 POPS SHOULD COVER THE SITUATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
DIMINISHING WINDS MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
WITH MVFR TYPE VSBYS. WL ADD THAT TO THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...CLDS
SHOULD INCREASE TOMORROW AS UPR TROF SWINGS ACRS THE AREA.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
717 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
BOOKEND VORTEX ON THE NRN END OF THE LARGE BOWING MCS WL SKIRT BY
JUST S OF MANITOWOC COUNTY AND INTO OUR NSH WATERS. ALREADY HAVE
SMW OUT ON THAT...AND MAY NEED TO EXTEND TO GET THE FEATURE OUT TO
MID-LAKE.
MODEST WAKE-LOW WINDS CONT ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN. MANUAL
CHECK ON THE CLI AWOS REVEALED A GUST TO 31 KTS...AND SFC PRESSURE
FALL CENTER STILL SHIFTG EWD ACRS THE AREA. WL CONT TO MENTION
35-40 MPH WINDS ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN AS IT SHIFTS EWD
ACRS E-C WI.
THUS FAR...HAVE HAD PRETTY STEADY EWD MVMT OF THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PCPN. BUT WITH BACKING UPR FLOW AHEAD OF SHRTWV APPROACHING FM
THE W...WE WL PROBABLY SEE A SLOWING OF THE EWD PROGRESS. SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED THAT NEW DEVELOPMENT WL EVENTUALLY OCCUR AND RIDE BACK
ACRS E-C WI...THOUGH THE ATM ACRS THE AREA SHOULD BE PRETTY WELL
OVERTURNED BY THE CURRENT AREA OF CONVECTION...SO IT WOULD
PROBABLY JUST BE SHRA. ADJUSTED FCST TO PULL PCPN FM THE NW 2/3
OF THE FCST AREA...AND DECREASED POPS IN THE E BEHIND THE CURRENT
MCS. BUT NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST LOW POPS IN THE FAR E INTO THE NGT
GIVEN SHRTWV APPROACHING FM THE W.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
THE STORMS OVER THE NERN PORTION OF THE MKX FCST AREA HAVE
WEAKENED. THE CHCS FOR ANY SVR RISK WORKING INTO THE SE PART OF
THE FCST AREA WERE RAPIDLY WANING.
MEANWHILE BACK TO THE W...THE WAKE LOW WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENTLY ARND 30 KTS AT THE OBSERVING SITES IN CENTRAL WI.
THOSE WINDS WL SHIFT EWD WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN. WL CARRY
THE GUSTY SSE WINDS INTO E-C WI ON THE NEW SPS AND THE NEXT FCST
UPDATE COMING OUT IN A BIT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 508 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
CLUSTER OF STRONGER STORMS LIFTG NE ACRS COLUMBIA COUNTY LOOKS TO
BE HEADED FOR MANITOWOC COUNTY. THAT COULD BRING A SVR RISK TO THE
FAR SE PART OF THE FCST AREA. THE MAIN BOOKEND VORTEX WITH THE
BOW REMAINS ON A TRAJECTORY TO STAY S OF THE AREA.
PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR 35-40 KT WAKE-LOW WIND GUSTS
GETTING INTO THE SW PART OF THE FCST AREA. PLAN TO HANDLE WITH SPS
AND GRIDS/MAIN FCST PRODUCTS FOR NOW. MAX WIND GUSTS WL OCCUR
RIGHT AT THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN...WHERE THE SHARP REFLECTIVITY
GRADIENT IS LOCATED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
OVERALL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HAS
BECOME APPARENT. DERECHO PRODUCING MCS WL RACE EWD ACRS SRN WI/NRN
IL WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES. CLEARLY
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM WL PASS TO OUR S. MAIN CONCERNS NOW ARE
WHETHER OR NOT E-C WI GETS NICKED BY THE NRN END OF THE
SYSTEM...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WAKE- OW INDUCED WIND GUSTS BEHIND
THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.
RECENT HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS
OVERLAYED ON CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SUGGEST MAIN BOOKEND VORTEX ON
THE NRN END OF THE LARGE BOW SHOULD TURN NEWD AND MV/EVOLVE TOWARD
THE SERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. BUT THIS HAS YET TO HAPPEN. UNLESS
A TURN TO THE NE OCCURS SOON...IT WL BE TOO LATE TO BRING THE
STG/SVR PORTION OF THE MCS INTO THE FCST AREA.
SECOND CONCERN IS WAKE-LOW INDUCED WIND GUSTS. THE NEAREST OF
THOSE THUS FAR HAVE BEEN ACRS NERN IA. THOSE TYPICALLY DEVELOP
RIGHT AT THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN...WHEN THE TRAILING PORTION OF
THE PCPN STARTS TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE. WL BE WATCHING TO SEE
WHETHER ANY OF THOSE TRENDS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE WORKING TOWARD THE
FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVENING.
ELSEHWERE...DEEP MIXING INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT RESULTED IN
GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW POWER OUTAGES OVER N-C WI. HANDLED THOSE BY
BUMPING UP WINDS IN THE FCST...AND NOW THAT MID/HIGH CLD SHIELD
HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COMPLEX
WEATHER EVOLUTION UNFOLDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OCCLUDED
FRONT OR MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL UPPER
PENINSULA TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WITH NEAR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS OVER N-C WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...CONVECTION HAS YET TO
FIRE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE 18Z GRB SOUNDING
SHOWED TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BETWEEN 750-550MB...RESULTING IN A
CAP OF AROUND 60 J/KG...THOUGH ML CAPES ARE GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG.
LIGHT RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A POTENT MCS
THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY OVER WESTERN IOWA. THIS MCS HAS SHOWN
NO SIGNS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST DESPITE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE FRONT AND MCS MOVE
EAST...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE MCS AND
SHORTWAVE FARTHER WEST MAY HELP TO REDUCE THE CAP OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. IF THE MCS STARTS A MORE NE TRACK DUE TO BACKING WIND
FIELDS ALOFT...ASCENT WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. BUT ITS STILL NOT CLEAR IF THIS NE TRACK WILL OCCUR OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM BEFORE LIGHT RAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE MCS ARRIVES. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUTOMA TO GREEN BAY TO ALGOMA. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. BUT ITS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND POINTS SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED TO THE DAY.
TONIGHT...FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE GFS AND HRRR...HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD PROMOTE THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND IOWA TRACKING ENE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. IF LIGHT RAIN DOES NOT EXTEND INTO AREAS
FROM WAUTOMA TO GREEN BAY TO ALGOMA THIS AFTERNOON...HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF THE MCS COULD BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE CAP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS
CORRIDOR. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR AS
INSTABILITY IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE...AND THE STRONGEST CONVECTION USUALLY FOLLOWS THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY. DUE TO THE STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT (45-55KTS OF 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR)...WILL HAVE TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE EVENING...THOUGH FEELING IS THAT MOST OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ISOLATED
COVERAGE REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN ASSUMING THE LIGHT
RAIN DOES NOT HOLD TOGETHER TO MAKE IT INTO THIS AREA. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THOUGH THIS SHOULD
BE CONFINE TO THE WAUTOMA TO ALGOMA AREAS. ONCE THE PRECIP EXITS NE
WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE EVENING...DRY SLOTTING SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD. THEN LOW STRATUS WILL
APPROACH N-C WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGHING WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL PROMOTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD HAVE GREATER COVERAGE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 70S
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
MAIN FOCUS ON SHORT-TERM SEVERE/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SO WILL BE BRIEF WITH EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION. MAIN
CONCERNS ARE LOW-END PCPN THREATS...AND A RETURN TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS FOR A FEW DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CYCLONIC NW FLOW AT THE SFC WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO MIDWEEK. CAA
AND CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (4TH OF JULY)...BRINGING ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY AND PLEASANT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE PERFECT FOR 4TH OF JULY FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS.
THE SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...WITH RETURN FLOW ALLOWING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. MOST MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED NEAR A WARM FRONT OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN IL OVER
THE WEEKEND...SO 20-30 POPS SHOULD COVER THE SITUATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
NOT MUCH CHG TO TAFS WITH THE 00Z ISSUANCE. THINGS SHOULD SETTLE
DOWN ONCE THE MCS EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING...THOUGH COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF PRETTY GUSTY SSE WINDS RIGHT AT THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PCPN AT THE E-C WI TAF SITES. DON/T PLAN ON ADDING MUCH FG TO
THE TAFS AT THIS POINT...BUT WL REASSESS LATER THIS EVENING WHEN
WE SEE WHERE DWPTS ARE AT AFTER THE RAIN ENDS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
608 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
THE STORMS OVER THE NERN PORTION OF THE MKX FCST AREA HAVE
WEAKENED. THE CHCS FOR ANY SVR RISK WORKING INTO THE SE PART OF
THE FCST AREA WERE RAPIDLY WANING.
MEANWHILE BACK TO THE W...THE WAKE LOW WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENTLY ARND 30 KTS AT THE OBSERVING SITES IN CENTRAL WI.
THOSE WINDS WL SHIFT EWD WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN. WL CARRY
THE GUSTY SSE WINDS INTO E-C WI ON THE NEW SPS AND THE NEXT FCST
UPDATE COMING OUT IN A BIT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 508 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
CLUSTER OF STRONGER STORMS LIFTG NE ACRS COLUMBIA COUNTY LOOKS TO
BE HEADED FOR MANITOWOC COUNTY. THAT COULD BRING A SVR RISK TO THE
FAR SE PART OF THE FCST AREA. THE MAIN BOOKEND VORTEX WITH THE
BOW REMAINS ON A TRAJECTORY TO STAY S OF THE AREA.
PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR 35-40 KT WAKE-LOW WIND GUSTS
GETTING INTO THE SW PART OF THE FCST AREA. PLAN TO HANDLE WITH SPS
AND GRIDS/MAIN FCST PRODUCTS FOR NOW. MAX WIND GUSTS WL OCCUR
RIGHT AT THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN...WHERE THE SHARP REFLECTIVITY
GRADIENT IS LOCATED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
OVERALL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HAS
BECOME APPARENT. DERECHO PRODUCING MCS WL RACE EWD ACRS SRN WI/NRN
IL WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES. CLEARLY
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM WL PASS TO OUR S. MAIN CONCERNS NOW ARE
WHETHER OR NOT E-C WI GETS NICKED BY THE NRN END OF THE
SYSTEM...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WAKE- OW INDUCED WIND GUSTS BEHIND
THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.
RECENT HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS
OVERLAYED ON CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SUGGEST MAIN BOOKEND VORTEX ON
THE NRN END OF THE LARGE BOW SHOULD TURN NEWD AND MV/EVOLVE TOWARD
THE SERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. BUT THIS HAS YET TO HAPPEN. UNLESS
A TURN TO THE NE OCCURS SOON...IT WL BE TOO LATE TO BRING THE
STG/SVR PORTION OF THE MCS INTO THE FCST AREA.
SECOND CONCERN IS WAKE-LOW INDUCED WIND GUSTS. THE NEAREST OF
THOSE THUS FAR HAVE BEEN ACRS NERN IA. THOSE TYPICALLY DEVELOP
RIGHT AT THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN...WHEN THE TRAILING PORTION OF
THE PCPN STARTS TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE. WL BE WATCHING TO SEE
WHETHER ANY OF THOSE TRENDS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE WORKING TOWARD THE
FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVENING.
ELSEHWERE...DEEP MIXING INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT RESULTED IN
GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW POWER OUTAGES OVER N-C WI. HANDLED THOSE BY
BUMPING UP WINDS IN THE FCST...AND NOW THAT MID/HIGH CLD SHIELD
HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COMPLEX
WEATHER EVOLUTION UNFOLDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OCCLUDED
FRONT OR MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL UPPER
PENINSULA TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WITH NEAR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS OVER N-C WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...CONVECTION HAS YET TO
FIRE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE 18Z GRB SOUNDING
SHOWED TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BETWEEN 750-550MB...RESULTING IN A
CAP OF AROUND 60 J/KG...THOUGH ML CAPES ARE GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG.
LIGHT RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A POTENT MCS
THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY OVER WESTERN IOWA. THIS MCS HAS SHOWN
NO SIGNS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST DESPITE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE FRONT AND MCS MOVE
EAST...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE MCS AND
SHORTWAVE FARTHER WEST MAY HELP TO REDUCE THE CAP OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. IF THE MCS STARTS A MORE NE TRACK DUE TO BACKING WIND
FIELDS ALOFT...ASCENT WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. BUT ITS STILL NOT CLEAR IF THIS NE TRACK WILL OCCUR OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM BEFORE LIGHT RAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE MCS ARRIVES. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUTOMA TO GREEN BAY TO ALGOMA. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. BUT ITS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND POINTS SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED TO THE DAY.
TONIGHT...FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE GFS AND HRRR...HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD PROMOTE THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND IOWA TRACKING ENE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. IF LIGHT RAIN DOES NOT EXTEND INTO AREAS
FROM WAUTOMA TO GREEN BAY TO ALGOMA THIS AFTERNOON...HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF THE MCS COULD BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE CAP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS
CORRIDOR. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR AS
INSTABILITY IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE...AND THE STRONGEST CONVECTION USUALLY FOLLOWS THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY. DUE TO THE STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT (45-55KTS OF 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR)...WILL HAVE TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE EVENING...THOUGH FEELING IS THAT MOST OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ISOLATED
COVERAGE REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN ASSUMING THE LIGHT
RAIN DOES NOT HOLD TOGETHER TO MAKE IT INTO THIS AREA. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THOUGH THIS SHOULD
BE CONFINE TO THE WAUTOMA TO ALGOMA AREAS. ONCE THE PRECIP EXITS NE
WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE EVENING...DRY SLOTTING SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD. THEN LOW STRATUS WILL
APPROACH N-C WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGHING WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL PROMOTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD HAVE GREATER COVERAGE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 70S
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
MAIN FOCUS ON SHORT-TERM SEVERE/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SO WILL BE BRIEF WITH EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION. MAIN
CONCERNS ARE LOW-END PCPN THREATS...AND A RETURN TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS FOR A FEW DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CYCLONIC NW FLOW AT THE SFC WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO MIDWEEK. CAA
AND CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (4TH OF JULY)...BRINGING ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY AND PLEASANT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE PERFECT FOR 4TH OF JULY FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS.
THE SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...WITH RETURN FLOW ALLOWING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. MOST MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED NEAR A WARM FRONT OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN IL OVER
THE WEEKEND...SO 20-30 POPS SHOULD COVER THE SITUATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
NOT MUCH CHG TO TAFS WITH THE 00Z ISSUANCE. THINGS SHOULD SETTLE
DOWN ONCE THE MCS EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING...THOUGH COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF PRETTY GUSTY SSE WINDS RIGHT AT THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PCPN AT THE E-C WI TAF SITES. DON/T PLAN ON ADDING MUCH FG TO
THE TAFS AT THIS POINT...BUT WL REASSESS LATER THIS EVENING WHEN
WE SEE WHERE DWPTS ARE AT AFTER THE RAIN ENDS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER LAKE WINNIPEG AND AN OCCLUDED FRONT BOWING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY IN A REGION OF MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ENE OVER NORTHERN IOWA. STORM MOTION
WOULD TAKE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS CLUSTER OVER WAUSHARA AND
WINNEBAGO COUNTIES AFTER 4 PM IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER...WHICH IS NOT A
SURE BET. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE BY THE TIME THESE STORMS
ARRIVE. MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH...SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IS RIDING
WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 90+ KT JET STREAK WHICH IS PUNCHING
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...ONE WHICH PROMPTED A SVR TSTORM
WARNING. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IS UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WHICH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER N-C
WISCONSIN. WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH...A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE AFTER
22Z. IF STORMS DEVELOP...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT. CONVECTION TRENDS ARE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST TONIGHT THAT CONTINUES RIGHT INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN IOWA WILL BE HEADING TOWARDS THE
ROUTE 21 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...A BEEFY 100 KT
JET STREAK WILL RESIDE FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...PLACING THE LEFT FRONT QUAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE BADGER STATE AT THE START OF THE EVENING. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER LAKE WINNIPEG
WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AT THE SAME TIME. IF
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE SO A FEW STORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN...THINK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-EVENING. JUDGING
BY UPSTREAM ACTIVITY...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOX VALLEY AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE IN THE
EVENING THOUGH FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING FARTHER SOUTHEAST. STORMS
SHOULD BE WEAKENING MID-EVENING ONWARD DUE TO NOCTURNAL
COOLING...BUT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS COULD TAP INTO 2000 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE WHICH COULD BRING A LOW SEVERE CHANCE. THE UPPER JET
WILL BE SHIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL TAKE THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITH IT. MODELS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN UPSTREAM COOL FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SO ANY
LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS. MUGGY AND BREEZY NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S.
MONDAY...WEAK UPSTREAM OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...PLACING EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE IN THE WARM SECTOR. ANTICIPATE AREAS OF LOW STRATUS OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA TO START THE MORNING. BUT WITH HEATING...MIXING
SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY. FURTHER
HEATING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WILL YIELD 2000-3000 J/KG OF ML
CAPE DURING PEAK HEATING AND LITTLE TO NO CIN OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE WITH CURVED
HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTING A DISCRETE STORM MODE. FORCING VIA MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS AND WEAK SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS
SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LATE AFTERNOON ONWARD
OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN PENDING MORNING
CLOUDINESS/SHORTWAVE TIMING WHICH COULD DELAY THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION. THREATS WILL INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MONDAY EVENING
IS THE BIGGEST FCST CHALLENGE.
A WIDESPREAD SVR TSTM AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT OVER THE FOX
VALLEY/LKSHR ON MONDAY EVG AREAS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE CONTINGENT
UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVMT OF A SFC WAVE ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF/GEM AND GFS ALL HAVE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A
SFC WAVE MOVG FROM FAR SW WI AT 00Z TO NE WI OR CENTRAL LK MICH BY
06Z...WITH STG 0-3 KM HELICITIES OF 300-400 MOVG THROUGH OUR SE
CWA DURING THE EVG HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45 TO 60 KTS WILL BE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVG IN
THE RRQ OF A 100+ KT JET STREAK WILL COMBINE THE APPROACHING FRONT
AND A DEVELOPING LLJ TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. SBCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED OVER THE FOX
VALLEY EARLY IN THE EVG...ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH
PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AND H8 DEW POINTS OF +14 TO +18 C. HOWEVER...
THE NAM/SREF SUGGEST THAT THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
MAY GET HUNG UP NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER...AND FOCUS THE BEST SEVERE
WX AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN WI. THESE
DIFFERENCES COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TORNADO OUTBREAK
ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF GRB CWA...OR A GLANCING BLOW WITH SOUTHERN
WI GETTING THE BRUNT OF THE ACTION. HAVE KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
OVER OUR SE COUNTIES...TAPERING BACK TO LIKELY/CHC CATEGORIES
FARTHER NW. HAVE KEPT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY...ALTHOUGH WILL
NEED TO WATCH THIS...AS THE ECMWF HAS PCPN LINGERING IN NE WI
PAST MIDNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED NW CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SFC
WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FCST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPS WILL BE FELT DURING THIS
PERIOD.
MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH THE GEFS SLOWEST TO PULL THE HIGH
OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OVERALL...EXPECT A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COMPLICATED FORECAST THOUGH FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERN
EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW WILL GRAZE NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER N-C WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON IF THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH. IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
A FRONT OVER IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD TRACK TOWARDS THE FOX
VALLEY BY MID EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BRING DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED STORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A MORE SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF STORMS
IS LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1224 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
CURRENTLY WATCHING A SLOWLY DYING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING EAST AT 40-50MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST IA. SO FAR...IT HAS BEEN
WELL-BEHAVED WITH JUST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PLAN ON THIS
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NOON HOUR...WITH MINIMAL SEVERE
THREAT.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS WITH A 300MB JET MAX PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE OF ID INTO SOUTHWEST MT. RAP HAS THE NOSE OF THIS JET
MAX REACHING OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AIDING IN MID-UPPER LEVEL
LIFT. RAP IS ALSO SHOWING 0-1KM MLCAPE INCREASING INTO THE
1200-2500J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 30-40KT IN THE 0-3KM LAYER. BUKFIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIS INSTABILITY MORE TIED TO MID-LEVEL
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH STORM BASES FAIRLY ELEVATED ABOVE
800MB. THEREFORE...BELIEVE SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH VERY MINIMAL
TORNADO THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DESPITE HAVING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST
EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN A REGION WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS REBOUNDING FROM THE SOUTH. 29.00Z GUIDANCE
STILL IS CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW RIDING UP
TOWARD A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/DRY LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO NOSE UP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THAT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR TAKE
THE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BUT WEAKEN
IT AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST. WHILE 0-3KM MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE ON
THE WEAK SIDE AT 500-1000 J/KG...0-6KM SHEAR IS DECENT AT 30-40KTS
AND INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING...SO SOME ISOLATED HAILERS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON
HOW LONG THE ENVIRONMENT CAN REMAIN CLEAR OF THE MORNING
CONVECTION GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS SINCE THAT WILL LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE 29.00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOWARD DAYBREAK
AND TAKING IT EAST THROUGH IOWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE ACTUALLY DEVELOPED AN MCV OFF OF
THIS CONVECTION AND TAKEN IT UP THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS FEATURE FORM...IT WOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD LIKELY LESSEN
THE SEVERE THREAT SINCE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BUILD MUCH
AND THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK MAY NOT BE IN YET. OTHERWISE...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL DRY LINE/BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE SURFACE
WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS IOWA TODAY. MOST
29.00Z GUIDANCE KEEP THIS FEATURE TO THE SOUTH BECAUSE OF THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION....SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
FEATURE AND SEE IF IT DOES MAKE IT FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
IF THIS MCV DOES NOT COME THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME HIGHLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
OF 2000-3000 J/KG INTO AT LEAST NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER NORTH. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS A 500MB JET STREAK
ENTERS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS SHEAR
APPEARS TO BE SPEED SHEAR WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY BEING OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MOIST SECTOR AND STAYING SOUTHWEST TO WEST
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. IF THE ENVIRONMENT IS ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL
OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST IOWA...POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...IN THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL STORM MODE POSSIBLY BEING
SUPERCELLULAR BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE LINEAR MODE AS MOST
OF THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE IN THE LOWEST 3KM. THE NSSL WRF-ARW/NMM
SOLUTIONS ARE SOME OF THE MORE OMINOUS ONES WITH PUSHING THE EARLY
DAY CONVECTION OUT BY AFTERNOON AND THEN BACKING SURFACE WINDS
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARM FRONT MAKING IT INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA. IF THESE SURFACE WINDS CAN BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT ALL...IT WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR TORNADOES AS THE 0-1KM SHEAR/HELICITY INCREASES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO...WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS ONE WOULD LIKE
AT THIS POINT...AM STILL THINKING THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY FROM 1PM TO 10PM WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE HAZARDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH. TIMING
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
LOCALLY AS CONVECTION MAY QUICKLY DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH THERE NOT BEING MUCH OF A CAP IN PLACE. WITH THE
DEEP...WIDESPREAD FORCING COMING IN TO GO ALONG WITH A FAT CAPE
PROFILE AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EVERYWHERE...WHICH MAY MAKE IT HARD FOR
STORMS TO START OUT AS SUPERCELLULAR AND INSTEAD START OUT
MULTICELLULAR/SQUALL LINE-ISH INSTEAD. SOME OF THE DETAILS WILL
STILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT AFTER THE CONVECTION PASSES
TODAY...BUT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF HIGH END
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
BEYOND THIS...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER AS THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPS
DOWN FROM CANADA. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS THIS
TROUGH DROPS DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
CURRENTLY WATCHING A DECAYING COMPLEX OF SHRA/TS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI. OTHERWISE...FOCUS
WILL BE ON REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIPPLES THROUGH THE AREA. APPEARS BULK OF THIS
SHRA/TS ACTIVITY MAY BE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI AND
TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN WI...WITH KRST/KLSE IN MORE OR LESS
OF A LULL AREA. WILL GO WITH VCTS AT BOTH SITES FROM 29/21-30/02Z.
NEXT COMPLEX OF STORMS TO IMPACT THE AREA APPEARS TO BE MONDAY
AFTER 18Z. MORE DETAIL WILL BE PUT INTO THE TAFS WITH THE 30.00Z
ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FROM TODAY
THROUGH NOON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
MOST RAINFALL REPORTS FROM ACROSS THE REGION WERE IN THE HALF INCH
TO AN INCH RANGE...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME LOCAL 2-3" REPORTS THAT
CAME IN FROM THE STORMS LAST NIGHT. WHILE MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD STAY PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH
THAT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED ISSUES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. RIVERS WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI WHERE
MANY SITES ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAS
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1010 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
CURRENTLY WATCHING A SLOWLY DYING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING EAST AT 40-50MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST IA. SO FAR...IT HAS BEEN
WELL-BEHAVED WITH JUST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PLAN ON THIS
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NOON HOUR...WITH MINIMAL SEVERE
THREAT.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS WITH A 300MB JET MAX PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE OF ID INTO SOUTHWEST MT. RAP HAS THE NOSE OF THIS JET
MAX REACHING OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AIDING IN MID-UPPER LEVEL
LIFT. RAP IS ALSO SHOWING 0-1KM MLCAPE INCREASING INTO THE
1200-2500J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 30-40KT IN THE 0-3KM LAYER. BUKFIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIS INSTABILITY MORE TIED TO MID-LEVEL
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH STORM BASES FAIRLY ELEVATED ABOVE
800MB. THEREFORE...BELIEVE SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH VERY MINIMAL
TORNADO THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DESPITE HAVING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST
EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN A REGION WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS REBOUNDING FROM THE SOUTH. 29.00Z GUIDANCE
STILL IS CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW RIDING UP
TOWARD A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/DRY LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO NOSE UP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THAT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR TAKE
THE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BUT WEAKEN
IT AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST. WHILE 0-3KM MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE ON
THE WEAK SIDE AT 500-1000 J/KG...0-6KM SHEAR IS DECENT AT 30-40KTS
AND INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING...SO SOME ISOLATED HAILERS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON
HOW LONG THE ENVIRONMENT CAN REMAIN CLEAR OF THE MORNING
CONVECTION GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS SINCE THAT WILL LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE 29.00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOWARD DAYBREAK
AND TAKING IT EAST THROUGH IOWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE ACTUALLY DEVELOPED AN MCV OFF OF
THIS CONVECTION AND TAKEN IT UP THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS FEATURE FORM...IT WOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD LIKELY LESSEN
THE SEVERE THREAT SINCE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BUILD MUCH
AND THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK MAY NOT BE IN YET. OTHERWISE...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL DRY LINE/BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE SURFACE
WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS IOWA TODAY. MOST
29.00Z GUIDANCE KEEP THIS FEATURE TO THE SOUTH BECAUSE OF THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION....SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
FEATURE AND SEE IF IT DOES MAKE IT FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
IF THIS MCV DOES NOT COME THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME HIGHLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
OF 2000-3000 J/KG INTO AT LEAST NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER NORTH. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS A 500MB JET STREAK
ENTERS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS SHEAR
APPEARS TO BE SPEED SHEAR WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY BEING OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MOIST SECTOR AND STAYING SOUTHWEST TO WEST
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. IF THE ENVIRONMENT IS ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL
OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST IOWA...POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...IN THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL STORM MODE POSSIBLY BEING
SUPERCELLULAR BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE LINEAR MODE AS MOST
OF THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE IN THE LOWEST 3KM. THE NSSL WRF-ARW/NMM
SOLUTIONS ARE SOME OF THE MORE OMINOUS ONES WITH PUSHING THE EARLY
DAY CONVECTION OUT BY AFTERNOON AND THEN BACKING SURFACE WINDS
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARM FRONT MAKING IT INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA. IF THESE SURFACE WINDS CAN BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT ALL...IT WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR TORNADOES AS THE 0-1KM SHEAR/HELICITY INCREASES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO...WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS ONE WOULD LIKE
AT THIS POINT...AM STILL THINKING THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY FROM 1PM TO 10PM WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE HAZARDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH. TIMING
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
LOCALLY AS CONVECTION MAY QUICKLY DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH THERE NOT BEING MUCH OF A CAP IN PLACE. WITH THE
DEEP...WIDESPREAD FORCING COMING IN TO GO ALONG WITH A FAT CAPE
PROFILE AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EVERYWHERE...WHICH MAY MAKE IT HARD FOR
STORMS TO START OUT AS SUPERCELLULAR AND INSTEAD START OUT
MULTICELLULAR/SQUALL LINE-ISH INSTEAD. SOME OF THE DETAILS WILL
STILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT AFTER THE CONVECTION PASSES
TODAY...BUT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF HIGH END
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
BEYOND THIS...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER AS THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPS
DOWN FROM CANADA. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS THIS
TROUGH DROPS DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE THROUGH KRST BETWEEN 29.13Z AND 29.15Z...AND KRST
BETWEEN 29.1430Z AND 29.1630Z. MESO MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH KRST BETWEEN 29.19Z
AND 29.23Z AND KLSE BETWEEN 29.20Z AND 29.24Z. THERE MAY BE SOME
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE IFR/MVFR RANGE DURING
THESE THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...THE FORECAST IS
VERY UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE MESO MODELS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
MOST RAINFALL REPORTS FROM ACROSS THE REGION WERE IN THE HALF INCH
TO AN INCH RANGE...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME LOCAL 2-3" REPORTS THAT
CAME IN FROM THE STORMS LAST NIGHT. WHILE MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD STAY PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH
THAT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED ISSUES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. RIVERS WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI WHERE
MANY SITES ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAS
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
648 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DESPITE HAVING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST
EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN A REGION WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS REBOUNDING FROM THE SOUTH. 29.00Z GUIDANCE
STILL IS CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW RIDING UP
TOWARD A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/DRY LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO NOSE UP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THAT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR TAKE
THE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BUT WEAKEN
IT AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST. WHILE 0-3KM MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE ON
THE WEAK SIDE AT 500-1000 J/KG...0-6KM SHEAR IS DECENT AT 30-40KTS
AND INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING...SO SOME ISOLATED HAILERS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON
HOW LONG THE ENVIRONMENT CAN REMAIN CLEAR OF THE MORNING
CONVECTION GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS SINCE THAT WILL LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE 29.00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOWARD DAYBREAK
AND TAKING IT EAST THROUGH IOWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE ACTUALLY DEVELOPED AN MCV OFF OF
THIS CONVECTION AND TAKEN IT UP THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS FEATURE FORM...IT WOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD LIKELY LESSEN
THE SEVERE THREAT SINCE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BUILD MUCH
AND THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK MAY NOT BE IN YET. OTHERWISE...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL DRY LINE/BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE SURFACE
WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS IOWA TODAY. MOST
29.00Z GUIDANCE KEEP THIS FEATURE TO THE SOUTH BECAUSE OF THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION....SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
FEATURE AND SEE IF IT DOES MAKE IT FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
IF THIS MCV DOES NOT COME THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME HIGHLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
OF 2000-3000 J/KG INTO AT LEAST NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER NORTH. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS A 500MB JET STREAK
ENTERS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS SHEAR
APPEARS TO BE SPEED SHEAR WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY BEING OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MOIST SECTOR AND STAYING SOUTHWEST TO WEST
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. IF THE ENVIRONMENT IS ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL
OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST IOWA...POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...IN THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL STORM MODE POSSIBLY BEING
SUPERCELLULAR BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE LINEAR MODE AS MOST
OF THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE IN THE LOWEST 3KM. THE NSSL WRF-ARW/NMM
SOLUTIONS ARE SOME OF THE MORE OMINOUS ONES WITH PUSHING THE EARLY
DAY CONVECTION OUT BY AFTERNOON AND THEN BACKING SURFACE WINDS
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARM FRONT MAKING IT INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA. IF THESE SURFACE WINDS CAN BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT ALL...IT WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR TORNADOES AS THE 0-1KM SHEAR/HELICITY INCREASES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO...WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS ONE WOULD LIKE
AT THIS POINT...AM STILL THINKING THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY FROM 1PM TO 10PM WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE HAZARDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH. TIMING
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
LOCALLY AS CONVECTION MAY QUICKLY DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH THERE NOT BEING MUCH OF A CAP IN PLACE. WITH THE
DEEP...WIDESPREAD FORCING COMING IN TO GO ALONG WITH A FAT CAPE
PROFILE AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EVERYWHERE...WHICH MAY MAKE IT HARD FOR
STORMS TO START OUT AS SUPERCELLULAR AND INSTEAD START OUT
MULTICELLULAR/SQUALL LINE-ISH INSTEAD. SOME OF THE DETAILS WILL
STILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT AFTER THE CONVECTION PASSES
TODAY...BUT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF HIGH END
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
BEYOND THIS...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER AS THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPS
DOWN FROM CANADA. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS THIS
TROUGH DROPS DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE THROUGH KRST BETWEEN 29.13Z AND 29.15Z...AND KRST
BETWEEN 29.1430Z AND 29.1630Z. MESO MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH KRST BETWEEN 29.19Z
AND 29.23Z AND KLSE BETWEEN 29.20Z AND 29.24Z. THERE MAY BE SOME
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE IFR/MVFR RANGE DURING
THESE THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...THE FORECAST IS
VERY UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE MESO MODELS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
MOST RAINFALL REPORTS FROM ACROSS THE REGION WERE IN THE HALF INCH
TO AN INCH RANGE...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME LOCAL 2-3" REPORTS THAT
CAME IN FROM THE STORMS LAST NIGHT. WHILE MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD STAY PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH
THAT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED ISSUES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. RIVERS WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI WHERE
MANY SITES ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DESPITE HAVING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST
EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN A REGION WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS REBOUNDING FROM THE SOUTH. 29.00Z GUIDANCE
STILL IS CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW RIDING UP
TOWARD A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/DRY LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO NOSE UP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THAT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR TAKE
THE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BUT WEAKEN
IT AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST. WHILE 0-3KM MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE ON
THE WEAK SIDE AT 500-1000 J/KG...0-6KM SHEAR IS DECENT AT 30-40KTS
AND INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING...SO SOME ISOLATED HAILERS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON
HOW LONG THE ENVIRONMENT CAN REMAIN CLEAR OF THE MORNING
CONVECTION GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS SINCE THAT WILL LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE 29.00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOWARD DAYBREAK
AND TAKING IT EAST THROUGH IOWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE ACTUALLY DEVELOPED AN MCV OFF OF
THIS CONVECTION AND TAKEN IT UP THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS FEATURE FORM...IT WOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD LIKELY LESSEN
THE SEVERE THREAT SINCE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BUILD MUCH
AND THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK MAY NOT BE IN YET. OTHERWISE...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL DRY LINE/BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE SURFACE
WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS IOWA TODAY. MOST
29.00Z GUIDANCE KEEP THIS FEATURE TO THE SOUTH BECAUSE OF THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION....SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
FEATURE AND SEE IF IT DOES MAKE IT FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
IF THIS MCV DOES NOT COME THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME HIGHLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
OF 2000-3000 J/KG INTO AT LEAST NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER NORTH. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS A 500MB JET STREAK
ENTERS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS SHEAR
APPEARS TO BE SPEED SHEAR WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY BEING OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MOIST SECTOR AND STAYING SOUTHWEST TO WEST
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. IF THE ENVIRONMENT IS ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL
OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST IOWA...POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...IN THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL STORM MODE POSSIBLY BEING
SUPERCELLULAR BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE LINEAR MODE AS MOST
OF THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE IN THE LOWEST 3KM. THE NSSL WRF-ARW/NMM
SOLUTIONS ARE SOME OF THE MORE OMINOUS ONES WITH PUSHING THE EARLY
DAY CONVECTION OUT BY AFTERNOON AND THEN BACKING SURFACE WINDS
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARM FRONT MAKING IT INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA. IF THESE SURFACE WINDS CAN BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT ALL...IT WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR TORNADOES AS THE 0-1KM SHEAR/HELICITY INCREASES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO...WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS ONE WOULD LIKE
AT THIS POINT...AM STILL THINKING THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY FROM 1PM TO 10PM WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE HAZARDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH. TIMING
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
LOCALLY AS CONVECTION MAY QUICKLY DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH THERE NOT BEING MUCH OF A CAP IN PLACE. WITH THE
DEEP...WIDESPREAD FORCING COMING IN TO GO ALONG WITH A FAT CAPE
PROFILE AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EVERYWHERE...WHICH MAY MAKE IT HARD FOR
STORMS TO START OUT AS SUPERCELLULAR AND INSTEAD START OUT
MULTICELLULAR/SQUALL LINE-ISH INSTEAD. SOME OF THE DETAILS WILL
STILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT AFTER THE CONVECTION PASSES
TODAY...BUT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF HIGH END
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
BEYOND THIS...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER AS THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPS
DOWN FROM CANADA. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS THIS
TROUGH DROPS DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE TAF
SITES...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS LOOK TO IMPACT LSE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS PRECIPITATION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW STRATUS DEVELOPING...WHICH IS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL
IOWA. DOWN THERE IFR CEILINGS EXIST. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEPICT MVFR CEILINGS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF IFR AT RST BETWEEN
11-13Z WHEN MODELS AGREE FOR THE LOWEST CEILINGS. BELIEVE THIS
TIME PERIOD IS ALSO WHEN THE ALTOSTRATUS AND CIRROSTRATUS CLEAR.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD ALSO FALL AT LEAST TO MVFR. DAYTIME MIXING
WILL HELP TO BRING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BACK UP TO VFR BY
16Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A TROUGH
CROSSING MN. THIS MOISTURE RETURN COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 16-18Z AT THE TAF SITES. MORE LIKELY IS
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD CROSS SOMETIME
BETWEEN 18-24Z...WHICH IS HANDLED BY A VCTS. LATER FORECASTS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PIN DOWN MORE SPECIFIC TIMING...INCLUDING TSRA
MENTION...LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS.
ANTICIPATING WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE AROUND 00Z SKIES WILL AT
LEAST SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014
MOST RAINFALL REPORTS FROM ACROSS THE REGION WERE IN THE HALF INCH
TO AN INCH RANGE...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME LOCAL 2-3" REPORTS THAT
CAME IN FROM THE STORMS LAST NIGHT. WHILE MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD STAY PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH
THAT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED ISSUES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. RIVERS WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI WHERE
MANY SITES ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRACKING INTO THE AREA WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DESPITE A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING
THROUGH WESTERN IOWA TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF DYNAMICAL
FORCING...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
DOWNSTREAM...THE STORMS HAVE FALLEN APART IN ORGANIZATION. PART OF
THE PROBLEM AS REFERENCED IN SPCS MESO DISCUSSION 1192 IS THE
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE INTO THE MID-
LEVELS...WHICH GIVEN THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION TO THE LINE IS
NOT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED DAMAGING WINDS. MOST OF THE WIND GUSTS
THUS FAR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE...SO THINKING
THE DAMAGING WIND CONCERN IS DIMINISHING.
FARTHER OUT IN TIME...SOME UNCERTAINTY HAS DEVELOPED FOR SUNDAY.
THE 28.12Z ECMWF...REGIONAL CANADIAN...HI RES ARW/NMM MODELS AND
THE 28.18Z NAM/GFS ARE CONVECTING STORMS SOONER AND FARTHER EAST THAN
WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST. WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS EARLY AS 18Z IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. THIS WILL BE
LOOKED AT MORE THROUGH THE EVENING TO SEE IF SOME FORECAST
ADJUSTMENTS ARE REQUIRED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014
SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND.
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ND THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. FEED OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WAS
PRODUCING SEVERAL LINES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MN/IA...AND
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OTHERWISE...A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND CONVECTION THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. CONSENSUS OF MESO-WRF MODELS CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH/FRONT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NAM 0-1KM
MLCAPE IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20KT.
MEANWHILE... PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES.
SO...INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR PERHAPS SOME ORGANIZED LINE/S OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. RAP ALSO SHOWING SOMEWHAT ENHANCED NON-
TORNADIC SUPERCELL SIGNATURE FOR PERHAPS A BRIEF SPIN-UP OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE/S OF
CONVECTION. APPEARS RIGHT NOW THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE IN THE
4-10 PM TIME FRAME. APPEARS THE TROUGH AND BULK OF THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...AFTER A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE ACTION...PLAN ON
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA MAINLY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN
WI THROUGH CENTRAL IA. THERE WILL BE AMPLE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
30-35KT RANGE AND MUCAPE IN THE 1800-2500J/KG GOING INTO SUNDAY
EVENING FOR A ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MID-LEVELS WILL ALSO BE IN
COOLING MODE FOR STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY MONDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN GENERATING A MID-
LEVEL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RACING ITO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN WI INTO CENTRAL IA.
MODEL CONSENSUS 0-3KM MUCAPE RUNNING SOMEWHERE AROUND 1200J/KG
ALONG/NORTH OF I-94...TO NEAR 3000J/KG ACROSS NORTHEAST IA. THE NAM
IS THE MOST BALLISTIC WITH CAPE NEARING 5500J/KG BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL INDICATING AMPLE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN
THE 35-55KT RANGE. SO...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHOT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. TORNADO/LARGE HAIL THREAT ALSO
LOOKS HIGHER FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WI INTO NORTHEAST IA WHERE
NAM INDICATES STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES IN THE 500-700 RANGE.
LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS/ECMWF INDICATING COOLER/CYCLONIC
FLOW DOMINATING THE REGION. TUESDAY LOOKS PRIME FOR SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH COLDEST
POOL OF AIR ALOFT.
FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS ARISE
AS THE ECMWF BUILDS A FLAT RIDGE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS COOLER/BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE TAF
SITES...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS LOOK TO IMPACT LSE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS PRECIPITATION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW STRATUS DEVELOPING...WHICH IS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL
IOWA. DOWN THERE IFR CEILINGS EXIST. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEPICT MVFR CEILINGS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF IFR AT RST BETWEEN
11-13Z WHEN MODELS AGREE FOR THE LOWEST CEILINGS. BELIEVE THIS
TIME PERIOD IS ALSO WHEN THE ALTOSTRATUS AND CIRROSTRATUS CLEAR.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD ALSO FALL AT LEAST TO MVFR. DAYTIME MIXING
WILL HELP TO BRING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BACK UP TO VFR BY
16Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A TROUGH
CROSSING MN. THIS MOISTURE RETURN COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 16-18Z AT THE TAF SITES. MORE LIKELY IS
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD CROSS SOMETIME
BETWEEN 18-24Z...WHICH IS HANDLED BY A VCTS. LATER FORECASTS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PIN DOWN MORE SPECIFIC TIMING...INCLUDING TSRA
MENTION...LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS.
ANTICIPATING WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE AROUND 00Z SKIES WILL AT
LEAST SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014
PLAN ON PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH. DUE TO MOSTLY TRANSITORY NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION...FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY END UP BEING MORE OF A
LOCALIZED THREAT. HOWEVER...IF TRAINING OCCURS...HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC. THIS COULD BE THE ISSUE MORE ON MONDAY. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH
PLAN ON THE MAIN STEM OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH NEXT
WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
112 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
117 PM CDT
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE ON SEVERE
WEATHER TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY. THE SPC HAS EXPANDED THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...WITH
THE FOCUS BEING ON DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70MPH AND LARGE HAIL.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEW POINTS...AND PWAT VALUES ARND 1.5 TO
1.75"...WHATEVER CONVECTION OCCURS COULD BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND AS SUCH WOULD INTRODUCE A
FLOODING CONCERN DESPITE STORMS FORWARD PROPAGATION. WHILE THE
PROBABILITY IS NOT ZERO FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...THE GREATEST FOCUS
FOR THIS WILL BE WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN IOWA. IF WINDS
CAN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST HOWEVER...THIS WOULD INTRODUCE INCREASED
HELICITY TO THE AREA.
THE FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE ACTIVITY PRESENTLY
ONGOING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA. VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS A
BOUNDARY DEPICTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA STRETCHING EAST TO JUST
SOUTH OF MOLINE THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IL TO
JUST SOUTH OF TERRE HAUTE IN. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY DEW
PTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S...WHILE TO THE NORTH DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE UPR 60S. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO BUMP BACK INTO THE LOW 70S WITH A
SOUTHERLY WIND. THE WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST/EAST EARLY
THIS AFTN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...AND WITH THE CIRRUS SHIELD
BEGINNING TO THIN OVER EASTERN IOWA EARLY THIS AFTN...THE ATMOSPHERE
SHUD ONLY FURTHER DESTABILIZE.
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS A LINE SEGMENT PUSHING INTO
EASTERN IOWA BY 20-22Z...THEN THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THIS FEATURE ARRIVES ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN ALONG WITH
TIMING. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE
AND UNIDIRECTIONAL MEAN LAYER FLOW...IT DOES SUPPORT THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION THAT ARRIVES ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN IL TO MORPH
INTO A BOWING SEGMENT AND POSSIBLY TRANSITION INTO A DERECHO TYPE
EVENT...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY LEVEL SHOULD QUICKLY LEVEL OFF LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
THE TIMING TO HAVE PUSHED THRU THE CWFA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THEN THE
DRY SLOT ARRIVES...HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO HOLD ONTO SOME LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE REMAINING...SO THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED LATER THIS EVENING
AND GO WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LEADING VORT WILL PIVOT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TUE...WITH THE DRY
SLOT STILL BEING PROGGED TO KEEP DRY CONDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THRU THE BULK OF THE DAY TUE. BY MID/LATE AFTN THE MID-LVL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH ANY SFC
DESTABILIZATION...A FEW ISO TSRA COULD DEVELOP FROM THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND COOLING IN THE MID-LVLS. WITH THE FLOW REMAINING
PROGRESSIVE...THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD BY 03Z WED AND SHUD
BRING A QUICK END TO ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWFA
WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING A TRAILING
WEAK TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WED MORNING...WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A CHC FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
WED. WITH CONSIDERABLE SOLAR SHIELDING WED...AND A THERMAL TROUGH OF
6 TO 8 DEG C OVERHEAD...TEMPS COULD STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND 70-74
FOR NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT A FEW POINTS IN
FAR NORTHERN IL THAT REMAIN IN THE UPR 60S WED AFTN.
BROAD TROUGH THEN PUSHES EAST WED NGT...WITH SFC ANTI-CYCLONIC
FEATURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO DRY THE
LOW-LEVELS OUT AND ALLOW WINDS TO TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THEN FOR
THUR THE NORTHERLY DRY FLOW WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S. A LAKE BREEZE LOOKS LIKELY AND COULD KEEP ON
ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE ADJACENT LAKE SHORE COMMUNITIES AND TEMPS IN
THE 60S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROG A RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...ALLOWING A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO BE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES THE WAVE
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX...ALTHOUGH THE MID-LVL TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST BY
SAT/SUN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHUD
ALLOW TEMPS TO SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL CONDS. ALTHOUGH AS THE
WEEKEND PROGRESSES...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN DOES TRANSITION INTO A
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW WITH HEIGHTS STEADILY INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CONUS. TEMPS FOR FRI SHUD CONTINUE TO BE SUB-SEASONAL IN THE 70S
NEAR 80...THEN BACK TO ARND 80 OR LOW 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY
NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN DOES APPEAR TO POINT TOWARDS TEMPS RETURNING
TO LOW/MID 80S. IN ADDITION TO THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW...IT DOES SUPPORT
A QUICK WEST-EAST FLOW OF WEAK WAVES. THIS COULD EASILY BRING A LOW
CHC POPS FOR THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POSSIBLE IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING.
* SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA ENDING 07Z.
* STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TODAY. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
IFR CIGS SPREADING WEST INTO ORD/MDW FROM COOLER EASTERLY FLOW
BUMPING INTO THE MOIST/HUMID AIR INLAND. AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
AND SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BUT EXPECTED
COVERAGE TOO LOW FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN
WESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS INCREASING DURING
THE MORNING WITH MID 20KT GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW FOR IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING.
* HIGH FOR SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA THROUGH 07Z.
* LOW FOR WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...HIGH FOR LATER TODAY. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...VFR CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY...VFR DRY.
FRIDAY...VFR DRY.
SATURDAY...VFR DRY.
SUNDAY...SLGT CHANCE OF TSRA.
ED F
&&
.MARINE...
303 PM CDT
PRIMARY MARINE CONCERN IS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND SOUTH HALF
THIS EVENING AS AN INTENSE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY HOLDS
TOGETHER AND BRINGS A PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY STRONG WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAVE LEFT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH
HALF UNTIL THIS EVENING. BEFORE CLOUDS MOVED OVERHEAD...VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED A BANK OF FOG COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE LAKE. SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL MAY BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THIS EVENING IN THE NEARSHORE BUT
DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST AN ADVISORY.
HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT WIND CRITERIA BEING MET ON
TUESDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING FROM LAND WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KT OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT GUSTY WINDS MAY
EXTEND A BIT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER
THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY. AN FAIRLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS WITH DIRECTIONS
NEAR THE SHORES CONTROLLED BY LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES BY DAY WILL
ENSUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEST
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032 UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1241 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 840 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
Initial tornado watch was allowed to expire, as the first wave of
storms passed over the far northern CWA. Some capping has been
keeping storms from firing further south so far this evening,
despite extreme MUCAPE values in the 5000 J/kg vicinity. However,
second line of intense storms currently extending from just west
of Rockford into far southeast Iowa, then back into northwest
Missouri. There will be some battling between the cap in our area
vs the air being worked over already in the north (outflow
boundary has made it between Peoria and Lincoln with temps around
70 north of it). However, the latest HRRR has this lined up fairly
well, and shows the line making it to about Jacksonville and
Bloomington between 10-11 pm albeit in a weakening state. Have
updated the grids to significantly beef up the PoP`s and rain
totals in the northwest this evening, and refined the southern
extent. Will send out corresponding zones shortly.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1236 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2014
Outside any thunderstorm, VFR conditions are expected this TAF
period. Scattered storms continue to push across central IL and
will affect the area through 08z with occasional MVFR cigs and
vsbys. Once the storms shift out of the area, a cold front
currently out to our west, will push thru the region by dawn
Tuesday. There is a low probability for lowering vsbys in fog just
ahead of the front as winds drop off for several hours but
confidence on that is too loo at this time to add into the
forecast. Surface winds behind the main outflow boundary will be
variable in direction up to 15 kts at times, and then more of a
south to southwest flow is expected ahead of the front. During the
day Tuesday, southwest to west winds are expected to increase to
12 to 17 kts by afternoon.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 338 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
Not many changes overall to the expected weather scenario for the
next week. Discussion will be abbreviated due to ongoing severe
weather preparedness & operations.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday: Lingering uncertainty
exists with respect to the evolution of the storm complex heading
east across Iowa. Most of forecast area remains in a Moderate Risk
for severe weather through tonight, although the main threat
should be over this evening. Current bow echo, surging east into
northwest Illinois, is expected to stay north of the forecast
area as flow backs southwest ahead of an advancing upper trof.
However, additional development remains possible, and is suggested
by many mesoscale models, along the boundary extending southwest
from the main bow in a strongly sheared and highly unstable
environment. Very heavy rain remains a threat with any storms the
impact the area tonight, with precipitable water values in excess
of 1.5 inches, though rapid storm movement should mitigate the
flooding threat to some degree.
Expect storms to taper off overnight with the loss of diurnal
instability and as the surface cold front sweeps through the area.
The bulk of the remainder of the short term period should be quiet
and cooler than normal. Northwest upper level flow will
predominate, with high pressure at the surface more often than
not. Still signs of a spoke of energy moving through the mean
upper trof around Wednesday, which may bring a chance of rainfall
to the area. However, most of the models are less bullish than
they have been.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday: Temperatures will begin to
moderate heading into the weekend as low level flow turns
southerly on the back side of the surface high. The turning flow
will also help richer moisture to return to the area. A northwest
flow wave is still expected by late in the weekend, and this will
result in our next organized risk of showers/storms.
Bak
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1231 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
ONCE CONVECTION LEAVES THE AREA WILL BE UPDATING TO CLEAR THE
WATCH AND ADJUST POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
RAP AND NAM VERIFIED WELL WITH THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A SURFACE
TROUGH/DRY LINE EXTENDED SOUTH OF THIS COLD FRONT INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. WARM AIR WAS LOCATED ABOVE THESE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WITH THE RAP STILL SUGGESTING A 700MB
TEMPERATURE OF GREATER THAN +16C LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
GIVEN THESE WARM TEMPERATURES ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP ALONG
THESE TWO BOUNDARIES AM EXPECTING THIS WILL OCCUR AFTER 23Z.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
LATE TODAY. 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND THE
CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 3500 J/KG AT 00Z TUESDAY. GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EARLY THIS EVENING ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEGIN STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT. THE LATEST RAP, NAM, AND GFS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING AN AREA OF MOISTURE AND IMPROVING
850MB-700MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES AT 00Z TUESDAY WERE FORECAST TO BE AT 1
TO 1.5 INCHES. GIVEN THE FORCING AND MOISTURE JUST NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT
ALONG WITH IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FRONT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND NEAR LOCATION OF THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE BETWEEN 00Z TUESDAY AND 06Z TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE LOCATION OF
WHERE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL MENTION FLOODING CONCERNS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. 850MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY SUGGESTS
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. GIVEN LINGERING AFTERNOON
CLOUD COVER NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL TRIM TEMPERATURES DOWN A
FEW DEGREES HERE FROM THE LATER GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN TURNING MORE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TURNING THE FLOW ALOFT
MORE NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. AS THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS, PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, A
NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH EXTENDS
BACK NORTH INTO EASTERN COLORADO. AS H5 VORT MAXIMA CREST THE
RIDGE AND DROP SOUTHEAST OFF THE ROCKIES, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY DRIFT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS EACH EVENING.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS OF EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE
LOWER 20S(C) CLOSER TO THE COLORADO BORDER. EVEN WITH DECREASING
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED, LOOK FOR HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 80S(F)
ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, PUSHING HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 90S(F) BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THROUGH 09Z...MVFR/VFR MIX WITH 3-6SM IN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR DDC AND
VCTS/TSRA. CEILINGS BKN040-050 LIFTING TOWARDS 09Z TO BKN090. WINDS
ENE TO ESE 5-15KTS AND TRENDING NORTHERLY. FROM 09Z-14Z...MVFR/VFR
MIX WITH LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR DDC WHICH MAY SEE VSBY DOWN TO
5SM AT TIMES...OTHERWISE BKN050-090 AND WINDS NORTH 5-10KTS. AFTER
14Z-15Z...ALL SITES TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH MIX OF SKC AND
SCT100-250. WINDS NNW 10-20KTS TRENDING DOWN TO NORTH AT 5-10KTS BY
00Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 82 60 84 / 60 30 10 10
GCK 62 82 59 81 / 30 20 10 10
EHA 62 78 59 79 / 70 30 20 10
LBL 64 80 61 82 / 80 30 20 10
HYS 62 84 59 80 / 20 20 0 0
P28 68 83 64 86 / 90 40 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
358 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
CONVECTION IS ONGOING TO OUR NW ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SE. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
STARTED DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THIS SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 MODEL GUIDANCE...SO WENT
AHEAD AND INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR NW HAS DEVELOPED TWO LINES...THE
FIRST IS DROPPING VERY QUICKLY SE...FEEDING OFF A CORRIDOR OF LLVL
MOISTURE EXTENDING NWRD FROM CENTRAL KY INTO SE INDIANA AND SW
OH...AS WELL AS CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/CAPE VALUES. AS IT
CONTINUES IN THIS DIRECTION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE LOSING STRENGTH AND BEGINNING TO BREAK.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND POSE LITTLE THREAT IF IT DOES MAKE
IT INTO NORTHERN KY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SECONDARY AND
MORE ROBUST LINE IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH EASTERN KY JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT AS IT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY...AND LOSE A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF ENERGY. A WAVE OF QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
STILL SET UP ALONG MUCH OF KY...BUT IT WILL HAVE LESSENED QUITE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM WHAT IS ONGOING AT THE MOMENT TO OUR NW. THE LAST
ECMWF RUN SHOWS ANY AREAS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY STAYING NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. ALSO...WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING A HIGH CAPE BUT LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW. ONCE THE CAP BREAKS BY LATE AFTERNOON...CAPE
VALUES WILL HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY FROM 4-5K J/KG TO 3-4K J/KG...AND
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL OR SPEED SHEAR. AS
SUCH...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH LITTLE DRIVING FORCE TO
KEEP THEM SUSTAINED/LONG LIVED.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE A SLIGHT PROGRESSION EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT...PUSHING CONVECTION FURTHER INTO THE
CWA AND FINALLY ENCOMPASSING ALL OF EASTERN KY BY THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING SE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG
PUSH IN SRLY FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE MERCURY UP TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN THIS
YEAR. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES COULD MEAN HEAT INDEXES
REACHING NEAR 100 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS HIGH ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
80S ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
EXTENDED. THEY ALL TAKE A DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS TROUGH/S ENERGY ROLLS PAST EAST KENTUCKY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN RISE
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...A LAST PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM PASSES DURING THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ITS ENERGY IS KEPT ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE OHIO RIVER. ALSO OF NOTE...THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SCOOT THE EVOLVING TROPICAL SYSTEM...OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
ALONG AHEAD OF IT LIKELY SPARING KENTUCKY ANY OF ITS EXCESSIVE
TROPICAL MOISTURE. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BE CLIMBING OVER
KENTUCKY AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGE EXERTS SOME TEMPORARY DOMINANCE FOR
OUR WEATHER. THE ECMWF IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE GFS...AND ESPECIALLY
THE GEM...WITH THIS PROCESS. THE RIDGE NEVER DOES BECOME TOO STRONG
OVER THE AREA...THOUGH...SO THAT BY SUNDAY...A FEW MINOR WAVES WILL
START TO RIPPLE PAST THE STATE IN WEAK FLOW. THE ECMWF HAS A POCKET
OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY MONDAY MORNING THAT HAS
LITTLE OTHER MODEL SUPPORT SO IT HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. FOR
THE MOST PART...FAVORED A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION WANES HEADING INTO THE POST
HOLIDAY WORK WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION OF A LARGE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING THURSDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...JUST IN TIME FOR THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. THE DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EVEN AS THE COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT IT
MODERATES ALLOWING FOR A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE JUST AFTER
PEAK HEATING MONDAY...BUT STILL RATHER SMALL GIVEN THE WEAK FEATURES
ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY SFC BOUNDARIES.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE EXTENDED...THOUGH DID
ADJUST THE EXIT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LIMIT THEM TO
MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND ALSO KEPT VERY SMALL CHANCES IN THE
NORTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMPERATURE
GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO GIVE MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTROL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD...BESIDES A WINDOW OF POSSIBLE MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT TAF
SITES. CONVECTION TO OUR NW HAS PRODUCED A LINE OF CLOUDS NOW MAKING
THEIR WAY INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THIS CLOUD COVER MAY BE ENOUGH
TO HAMPER SOME OF THE BEST FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THREATEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AND A
BIT GUSTIER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. ADDED IN ANOTHER LINE IN THE
TAFS FOR WINDS CALMING BACK DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
413 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROFFING INTO
THE WRN GREAT LKS TO THE S OF SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO IN NW ONTARIO
THAT LIES BTWN UPR RDGS ALONG THE W COAST AND ALONG THE E COAST. AN
IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OF TS IS PRESENT OVER THE LOWER LKS WHERE
VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN THE PVA AHEAD OF SHRTWV MOVING
INTO WI IS LIFTING MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MUCAPE UP TO 2000
J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH AXIS OF MUCAPE ARND 500 J/KG
EXTENDS N INTO ERN UPR MI AND THERE IS SOME OF THE DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC AND UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET MAX IN ONTARIO IN THIS
AREA AS WELL...ONLY SCT SHOWERS ARE FALLING OVER THE NE HALF OF LK
SUP/AREAS E OF GRAND MARAIS-MANISTIQUE. THE CULPRIT THAT IS
RESTRICTING GREATER SHOWER/TS COVERAGE UNDER EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLD
COVER IS VERY DRY LLVLS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB/MPX RAOBS. STRONG WSW
H925-85 WINDS UP TO 29 KTS/42 KTS THAT WERE OVER GRB AT 00Z ARE
ENHANCING THIS DRY AIR ADVCTN INTO THE CWA. LOOKING TO THE W...SKIES
ARE MOCLR OVER THE FAR WRN CWA...BUT MORE CLDS AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS
ARE PRESENT IN MN JUST AHEAD OF AND TRAILING A SFC COLD FNT THAT
EXTENDS SWWD FM THE DEEP SFC LO IN NW ONTARIO THRU MN AND INTO
NEBRASKA. THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB SHOWED A DEEP MOIST LYR FM THE SFC
THRU H3. THE 00Z H85 TEMP WAS 5C AT THE PAS MANITOBA...AND GUSTY NNW
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FNT ARE DRIVING 50-DEGREE SFC TEMPS INTO THE
NCENTRAL CONUS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND POPS EARLY THIS
MRNG OVER THE E. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO CLD/TEMPS TRENDS AND SHRA CHCS
AS COLD FNT NOW IN MN PUSHES TO THE E AND ACRS UPR MI TODAY.
EARLY THIS MRNG/TDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME UPR LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WL
LINGER OVER THE ERN CWA THRU SUNRISE...LATEST RUC FCST SHOWS
STEADILY LOWERING H85 DEWPTS AT NEWBERRY. SO SUSPECT ANY SHOWERS WL
BE E OF THAT PORTION OF THE CWA BY FCST ISSUANCE. AT THE SAME
TIME...MOISTER LLVLS AHEAD OF APRCHG SFC COLD FNT ARE FCST TO PUSH
INTO THE WRN ZNS BY 12Z. SO INCLUDED SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
W TOWARD 12Z DESPITE AN ABSENCE OF SGNFT DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THESE
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS WILL THEN SPREAD E WITH THE COLD FNT...WHICH IS
FCST TO REACH THE FAR ERN CWA IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DEEP
LYR QVECTOR DVGC FCST OVER THE ERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN...THE GREAT
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS GENERATE MORE PCPN IN THIS AREA THIS AFTN...
WHEN ARRIVAL OF SFC COLD FNT WL BE IN BETTER SYNC WITH SOME DAYTIME
HEATING AND PERHAPS SOME ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH CNVGC
OF LK BREEZES OFF LK MI AND SUP. IN FACT... FCST SDNGS SHOW FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LYR MOISTENING SIMILAR TO WHAT IS SHOWN ON THE 00Z
BISMARCK RAOB. SO MAINTAINED HIER FCST POPS IN THIS AREA. BUT SINCE
THE FCST LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE IN THE ABSENCE OF
DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WL INCLUDE ONLY A SCHC FOR TS. A GOOD DEAL OF LO
CLD WL LINGER OVER THE CWA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FNT...
AND THE COMBINATION OF THE CLD COVER AND CAD BEHIND THE BNDRY MAY
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL THIS AFTN...AT LEAST OVER THE FAR W WHERE THE W
WINDS WL UPSLOPE OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP.
TNGT...ANOTHER SHRTWV NOW OVER NE MANITOBA THAT IS ROTATING ARND THE
CLOSED LO IS FCST TO APRCH THE WRN CWA LATE TODAY AND THEN SWING
ACRS THE CWA TNGT...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME PVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC.
THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD SUSTAIN DEEPER MSTR/AT LEAST
SCT SHOWERS WITHIN LINGERING LLVL MOIST CYC FLOW DESPITE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THE BEST CHC FOR THESE SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE SE IN
THE EVNG. UPSLOPE W WIND WL KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING OVER THE W THRU
MUCH OF THE NGT EVEN AFTER NVA/DRYING ALF ARRIVE FOLLOWING THE
SHRTWV PASSAGE LATE. WITH WSHFT TO THE NW OFF THE COOL LK SUP WATERS
AND H85 TEMPS FALLING AS LO AS 2C OVER THE W TOWARD 12Z...EXPECTING
A MUCH COOLER NGT WITH LO TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S OVER MOST OF
THE NRN TIER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A GENERALLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...PROVIDING A NICE START TO THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.
THE UPPER TROUGH PRODUCING THE THE LOW CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...LEADING TO THE AREA
COMING UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS STATES TODAY AND EXTEND A SURFACE RIDGE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THUS...AFTER A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY (WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT) WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE
ON THE DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A FASTER TREND TO THE
DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS THAT WAS STARTED WITH MODEL RUNS 24HRS
AGO...SO HAVE MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED SUNSHINE MAY TRY TO OFFSET THE COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT STILL THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S (WITH A FEW 70S OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNDER DOWNSLOPING FLOW). NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...THE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY KEEP SHORELINE TEMPERATURES COOLER AND IN THE 50S.
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE IN
CONTROL AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BEFORE REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (ALTHOUGH GRADUALLY WARMING TOWARDS NORMAL BY
SATURDAY). THERE ARE A COUPLE OF ITEMS TO NOTE. FIRST...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE VERY COOL OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...PWAT VALUES AROUND 35-40 PERCENT OF NORMAL
AND CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME OF THE WEST COLD SPOTS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 30S. THE OTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE...THINK THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR (AND CAPPING ABOUT 650-600MB) FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR BUT
WILL SHOW SOME CLOUDS DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.
THE NEXT WAVE TO WATCH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
THINK PRECIP SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR ANY 4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES...ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS FEATURE TRACKS HEADING
INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE GENERAL IDEA OF IT STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WILL
GRADUALLY RAMP POPS UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND
THEN A WARM FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN
CENTRAL CANADA). SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD PRODUCE
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS INCREASING LLVL MSTR WILL WRAP INTO THE WRN U.P. IN A
CYCLONIC UPSLOPE WRLY FLOW. THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR AT KSAW BY MID TO LATE TUE AFTERNOON BUT OTEHRWISE EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO TUE EVENING AT THE TAF SITES.
WEST WINDS MAY GUST AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS AT KCMX ON TUESDAY WITH A
COLD FROPA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25KTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY...WITH THE MARINE LAYER HELPING TO KEEP WINDS IN CHECK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND GENERALLY UNDER 20KTS.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
PRODUCE WINDS BELOW 15KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST THIS WEEKEND...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BUT THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
FINALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
410 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THE SURFACE LOW WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW IS
FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. IT IS CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO...HAVING WEAKENED SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS...WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVER HUDSON BAY INDICATING THE
LOW SHOULD CONTINUE IN ITS NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. HOWEVER...WE ARE
NOT GOING TO AVOID A CLOUDY AND RAINY DAY...WITH AN AREA OF CLOUD
AND RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM MANITOBA OVERNIGHT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING VERY WARM TODAY...IN FACT THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE PROBABLY AT THEIR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY
ALREADY...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. BY MID AFTERNOON THEY MAY ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S.
THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S. SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
BLOOM ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MORE COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA ALOFT TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES...DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. HAVE
GONE WITH CHANCE POPS...AS COVERAGE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE
SCATTERED...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
TODAY. TONIGHT THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH EVEN
AS THEY SLOWLY ROTATE EAST OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S. HAVE CONFINED POPS TO MAINLY THE
EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER LATE EVENING. WEDNESDAY
WE WILL RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA WITH DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THERE WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH COOL NW FLOW ALOFT. THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
MORNING.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TO THE ILLINOIS
AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AREA BY FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE THIS FAR OUT.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY MONDAY...AND BRING AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
AREAS WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE CEILINGS
REMAIN OR DROP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS TO IFR. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
WILL ALSO OCCUR TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND AND OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. WE KEPT CEILINGS MVFR ON TUESDAY...BUT
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE RAP THAT THEY COULD RISE TO
LOW END VFR AT KDLH/KBRD/KHYR BY MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE AREA...WE FEEL THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF CU/STRATOCU RESULTING IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
MVFR CEILINGS. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 63 48 68 49 / 30 30 10 0
INL 59 44 69 47 / 50 20 0 0
BRD 65 50 72 51 / 60 30 0 0
HYR 66 49 70 46 / 20 20 10 0
ASX 67 47 68 47 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
306 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THE STACKED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL FINALLY MAKE EASTWARD
PROGRESS TODAY. WHILE IT DOES SO...A LOBE OF COOL AND MOIST AIR WILL
ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HRRR AND HOPWRF ARE
RATHER CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A BAND OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
PUSHING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED...LESS ORGANIZED
AND LESS INTENSE ACTIVITY BEHIND IT. THERE IS SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT NOT TOO MUCH TO GENERATE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
WITH THE LEADING BAND. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE IN...TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING FOR A CHILLY DAY BY
FIRST OF JULY STANDARDS.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING WITH A QUICK WEAKENING
OF SHOWERS FOLLOWING SUNSET. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
SHROUDED IN CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO
LOW...BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY STILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS CENTRAL
MN. THE RECORD LOW AT MSP IS 49 AND THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR
LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
LONGER TERM TRENDS INCLUDE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. ALONG
WITH THE WARMER AIR WILL COME AN INCREASING THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
SPRINKLES LINGERING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP
AS WELL. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM TO THE
70 MARK MOST PLACES.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE MOST OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK THROUGH THE 70S...BUT REMAINING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO
BRING IN HIGHER HEIGHTS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EAST COAST TROPICAL
SYSTEM...AND LIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE 80S MOST AREAS. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FRIDAY...THEN POSSIBLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS BEEN SENDING A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR.
THE 00Z ECMWF HAS LIFTED THE ACTIVITY MAINLY NORTH INTO SATURDAY.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO LET THE MODELS MERGE TO SOME CONCLUSION.
WONT TIME ANYTHING INTO THE WEEKEND FOR NOW...BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SSW TO WSW AND
SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KTS. THIS HAS JUST BEGUN TO ENTER WESTERN WISC
AND SHOULS REACH KEAU AROUND 07Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL FOLLOW AND
REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
BEST LIFT WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MN BUT IT MAY GRAZE PARTS OF
CENTRAL MN. HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF DROPPING KAXN TO IFR...WITH
KSTC REMAINING JUST ABOVE 1000 FT AGL. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF
KSTC GOES IFR. OTHER AREAS GENERALLY DROPPING TO 1200-1800
FEET...MAINLY BETWEEN 10Z-17Z ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS.
VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT BE RESTRICTED TOO MUCH IN SHOWERS. THUNDER
THREAT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED THAT IN ANY OF
THE TAFS.
KMSP... WSW WIND WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MODELS
ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT MVFR CEILINGS MOVING IN
AROUND 09Z-10Z. THEY ARE ALSO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WHEN
CEILINGS DROPS BELOW 1700 FEET. WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE 1500
FT AGL CEILINGS STAY TIL 17Z OR SO...SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS S-SE 5-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1217 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER
OUR WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS...AND IT
TAKES THE PRECIP FURTHER EAST INTO OUR CWA THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WE
WILL UPDATE AND PUSH POPS FURTHER EAST AS WELL INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. LOSS OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASING
COVERAGE OVER EASTERN AREAS LATE THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
NEAR TERM FOCUS ON WINDS. THE STRONG GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR THE 30-35 KT WINDS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF
AFTER SUNSET. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE FOUND
ALONG THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE BORDERLAND/IRON RANGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS TO REDEVELOP. ELSEWHERE...THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
CURRENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER SRN MANITOBA. THIS LOW WILL BE THE FEATURE
OF INTEREST FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT SLIDES EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER...SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS...GUSTY NW
WINDS AND PLUMMETING H85 TEMPS. LATEST ECM/GFS/GEM/NAM ALL SUGGEST
H85 READINGS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND BY
00Z WED. DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
REGION IN THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...HAVE
INCLUDED ISOLD THUNDER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT...BASICALLY CLEARING OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. THE GFS AND THE GEM DO BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF THOUGH ON THURSDAY SO WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDING SOME SMALL POPS TO THAT PERIOD. MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY. THE DIFFERENCES FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY ARE RUNNING FAIRLY LARGE AT THIS POINT. THE ECMWF
ACTUALLY BRINGS A SIZABLE AREA OF QPF ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRY. WILL HAVE SOME SMALL POPS
MOSTLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS IF THE
MODELS TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF. LOOKS LIKE SUBTLE
FEATURES COULD SET OFF SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME PRETTY BIG
DIFFERENCES THOUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS
FAIRLY LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED. THE COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S IN SPOTS
BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
AREAS WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE CEILINGS
REMAIN OR DROP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS TO IFR. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
WILL ALSO OCCUR TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND AND OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. WE KEPT CEILINGS MVFR ON TUESDAY...BUT
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE RAP THAT THEY COULD RISE TO
LOW END VFR AT KDLH/KBRD/KHYR BY MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE AREA...WE FEEL THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF CU/STRATOCU RESULTING IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
MVFR CEILINGS. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 47 68 49 72 / 30 10 10 0
INL 43 69 46 74 / 20 0 10 0
BRD 49 72 50 75 / 20 10 0 0
HYR 49 73 45 74 / 20 10 10 0
ASX 49 69 47 71 / 30 10 10 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1203 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
Line of thunderstorms have entered the far northern part of the
CWA late this evening just ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorms
will continue to move southeast tonight as the cold front moves
southeast across the area. The latest runs of the RAP shows that
low level convergence will weaken along the front at the same time
that a vort max moves east into the Great Lakes. HRRR composite
reflectivity goes along well with going forecast showing a gradual
decrease in areal coverage in the thunderstorms overnight as the
front moves south tonight. Otherwise rest of the forecast still
looks good.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
Some places reaching heat indices of 100-105 this afternoon due to
warm temperatures around 90 degrees and very high surface dew points
in the middle to upper 70s. The heat advisory will continue in
effect for the St Louis metro area into the early evening hours.
With a capped atmosphere and little if any forcing, not getting the
typical diurnal isolated to scattered showers/storms this afternoon
across our forecast area. Convection is expected to continue to
develop across IA and northwest MO and eventually shift
southeastward into northeast MO and west central IL early this
evening as a shortwave and cold front along with outflow boundaries
ahead of the front approach and help to break the cap and provide a
surface focus for convection. Due to the extreme instability along
with sufficient low-mid level wind shear, damaging winds along with
large hail and isolated tornadoes are possible with these storms
this evening across northeast MO and west central IL. Went with a
compromise between the faster NCEP 4 km WRF and the slower HRRR
model for the precipitation forecast. A broken line of convection
is expected to drop southeastward through northeast MO and west
central IL early this evening. This line of convection should
gradually weaken later this evening and into the overnight hours as
it moves into central MO and southwest IL, although maybe not as
fast as the HRRR model depicts. Slightly cooler low temperatures
are expected tonight compared to last night across northeast MO and
west central IL behind the southeastward moving cold front.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
(Tuesday)
Cooler day is in store for Tuesday as initial cold front should clear the
southern extent of the CWA by Tuesday morning. Drier air with dewpoints
filtering down into the 60s is also expected. Chances of showers and storms
are forecast to be confined to southeastern Missouri where a shortwave
will round the base of an amplifying longwave trough and interact with sagging
frontal boundary/baroclinic zone. Rest of forecast area is expected to remain
dry with highs about 3-7F cooler than today but it will feel quite a bit
better than today due to dewpoints also lowering.
Secondary cold front should slip by the area overnight Tuesday night and
is expected to pass through dry. Main impact this frontal boundary will
bring is that it will usher in the start of some unseasonably cool and dry
weather.
(Wednesday - Friday)
The Wednesday through Friday time period will be characterized by much
cooler than normal temperatures accompanied by unseasonably low dewpoints.
Look for temperatures to be some 10 to near 15 degrees below normal day
and night. This results in highs in the 70s with lows in the 50s...not too
unlike what was observed early in July of last year. Lows on Thursday
morning...and to a lesser degree Friday morning...may even approach record
minimums for the date. All in all...a beautiful and pleasant 4th of July
looks to be in store for the bi-state region.
(Saturday - Monday)
Surface ridge and associated anticyclone will slowly move off to the east
with upper-level heights also on the rise. This will result in a
moderation in temperatures as well as a climb in dewpoints/humidity levels.
The process will be slow and gradual however leading to comfortable levels
of temps/humidities thanks to persistent dry/cool low-level flow around
Great Lakes. More typical summertime temperatures and dewpoints look to
hold off until Monday.
Next chance of precipitation in the form of showers and thunderstorms will
be Saturday night through Sunday as a shortwave travels around the periphery
of upper-level high across the desert southwest.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014
Weakening broken line of showers and thunderstorms extending from
central Illinois through central Missouri continues to move east
and southeast. These storms will continue to weaken as they
approach STL area. One frontal boundary moving across northern
through west central Missouri. Second fronal boundary will move
through Missouri during the mie to late afternoon on Tuesday.
Specifics for KSTL: The first of two frontal boundaries will move
through STL area after 0800 UTC. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to weaken as they approach STL area.
Local gusts of 30 kts possible near thunderstorms. Second cold
front will move through STL mid to late afternoon as winds shift
from westerly to northwest 10 to 12kts.
RP
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
341 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TO THE WEATHER PATTERN IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY
AS A STOUT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT RACES WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT ONLY BRINGING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO A HEALTHY DOSE OF INCREASED MOISTURE.
GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...MOST NOTABLY
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THROUGH GAPS
AND CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NEW MEXICO. OF
MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD WHERE SOME
STRONG AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA BORDER WITH ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MUCH OF NEW MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE STATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH
EACH SUBSEQUENT DAY WILL LIKELY SEE FEWER STORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE CENTROID OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AZ...LEAVING THE WESTERLIES DISPLACED FROM THE
GREATER SOUTHWEST REGION. STORMS IN SE CO...SW KS...NW OK...AND NW
TX HURLED OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT RACED INTO EASTERN AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL NM. THIS BOUNDARY PRECEDED THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
WHICH IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND WEST...AND LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
JUST ENTERED TAOS...LAS VEGAS...AND CLINES CORNERS AS OF 3 AM.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...INDUCING A GUSTY CANYON/GAP WIND IN MANY FAVORED CENTRAL
AREAS WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW
DAYS...THIS WILL INITIATE AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND TO SOME EXTENT THURSDAY. BOUNDARY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WILL RUN OUT OF MOMENTUM NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE IT COULD BE AN INITIATION POINT FOR
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON EASTERN/UPSLOPE FACES. SOME UPSLOPE WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN FACES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TODAY.
ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF...MORE
INTO THE EVENING...OVER THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS
OF NM AND INTO WEST TX WHERE A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE SETTING UP
AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE ABOVE. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS ON THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO EXTEND
OVER PORTIONS OF CHAVES COUNTY TO ROOSEVELT COUNTY BEFORE
EXTENDING FARTHER EAST INTO TX...HOWEVER THE LOCAL WRF CARRIES
THIS CONVERGENCE FARTHER SOUTH WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT NORTHWARD
CLOSER TO I-40. THE AXIS OF DILITATION FOR THE DEFORMATION ZONE
WOULD BE NEAR THIS LINE WITH BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALSO
ALIGNING NEAR. HAVE PAINTED SOME LIKELY POPS IN THIS SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FORCING
TONIGHT...AND THIS AREA COULD BE ONE OF CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. STORM MOTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM NW TO SE TODAY WITH
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...BUT SOME TRAINING CELLS AND LINEAR
STRUCTURE MAY INTRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE DEFORMATION ZONE
TONGIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL PICK UP SOME MORE STEAM TONIGHT...ADVANCING TOWARD
THE AZ BORDER...AND CONSEQUENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WESTERN ZONES WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY WILL BE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BOTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM...BUT INTO
THE EVENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND GENERAL STORM
PROPAGATIONS TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY ALLOW MANY ADJACENT AREAS TO
SEE RAINFALL TOO. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH MORE IN THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER MORE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
INTO THURSDAY THE SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE THE UPPER HIGH ORBITS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR RECYCLING
THURSDAY...AND MODELS ARE MAKING QUICK USE OF IT WITH MANY ZONES
LIKELY SEEING SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR A DAY-BY-
DAY DRYING AND LESS TO RECYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING AT ARM`S
LENGTH OF NM INTO THE LONG WEEKEND.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE STEERING FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR IDEAL
FOR A TRADITIONAL NORTH-SOUTH FLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NOR FOR
A TRANSIENT SUBTROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE AND STRONG
HEAT FLUX FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA SEEM TO
BE PRIMED TO FUEL NM WITH PLENTY OF MONSOON FUEL ONCE THE STEERING
FLOW ALLOWS.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TRANSITION TO A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT HAS BEGUN FOR EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD MAY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REACH THAT FAR WEST.
A GUSTY EASTERLY WIND INTO THE RGV REMAINS ANTICIPATED FOR AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP
IN THE TYPICAL FASHION. PRESSURE RISES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THE STRONGER
RISES HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
OKLAHOMA AND THE TX PANHANDLE...ALTHOUGH A SECONDARY PUSH WAS ALSO
NOTED OVER SE CO. LATEST RUC SUPPORTS THE WIND DEVELOPMENT AND
TIMING SO EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO INVADE CENTRAL
NM...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE WIND SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER
MIDDAY WITH MIXING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...PUSHING HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE CONTDVD AND PERHAPS
BEYOND.
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 TODAY...AS WELL AS THE NORTH CENTRAL. STEERING FLOW
WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH. DRIER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE RELEGATED TO AREAS WEST OF THE RGV TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE WEST BUT FALL
BELOW AVERAGE EAST. SUB 15 PERCENT MIN RH VALUES WILL BE FOUND ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CRATER IN THE EAST BUT
OVERALL VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD OR BETTER ALL AREAS.
RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST AREAS EXCEPT
THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER. MIN RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY WILL TREND UPWARD AS BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFT
TO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. CELL MOTION WILL BE TO
THE SOUTH BUT RATHER SLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
TO BELOW AVERAGE...CONSEQUENTLY VENTILATION WILL BE REDUCED FOR SOME
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISH EAST THURSDAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS CENTRAL AND WEST. VENTILATION MAY BE FAIR TO EVEN
POOR OVER THE RGV...WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER
WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE MODELS INDICATE IT
WILL BE PARKED INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO LOWER
DAYTIME HUMIDITIES NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL...WITH MORE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT. HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO. WHILE OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES LOOK TO REMAIN GOOD...LATE DAY HUMIDITIES WILL BEGIN TO
FALL BACK INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
PASSING KSAF AROUND 04Z. THIS FRONT HAS CAUSED WIND SHIFTS AND
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TO TRAVERSE THE STATE. AS THE FRONT SURGES
SOUTH AND WESTWARD OVERNIGHT IT WILL PRODUCE STRONG EASTERLY GAP
WINDS FOR KABQ AND KSAF. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ALSO AT KTCC AND
KROW. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TOWARD
12Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE REGION SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND AN INCREASE IN AVIATION WEATHER THREATS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 95 61 93 62 / 0 5 10 20
DULCE........................... 86 48 86 48 / 5 10 20 40
CUBA............................ 89 51 82 51 / 20 20 40 60
GALLUP.......................... 93 55 89 56 / 5 10 20 30
EL MORRO........................ 87 53 82 53 / 10 20 40 40
GRANTS.......................... 90 59 84 56 / 10 30 40 50
QUEMADO......................... 89 57 85 57 / 20 20 30 40
GLENWOOD........................ 95 57 92 56 / 10 30 40 50
CHAMA........................... 82 43 79 45 / 30 30 40 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 84 58 77 57 / 20 30 40 60
PECOS........................... 77 54 74 55 / 30 50 60 70
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 78 50 77 50 / 30 40 40 50
RED RIVER....................... 68 39 67 39 / 40 50 50 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 72 37 70 37 / 40 50 60 60
TAOS............................ 82 52 78 50 / 20 30 30 50
MORA............................ 72 49 71 50 / 40 50 60 70
ESPANOLA........................ 89 57 83 56 / 20 30 20 50
SANTA FE........................ 83 57 80 57 / 20 30 30 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 85 58 83 58 / 20 30 20 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 87 62 85 63 / 20 30 20 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 89 65 87 66 / 20 30 20 50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 91 60 89 60 / 20 30 20 50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 91 61 89 61 / 20 30 20 50
LOS LUNAS....................... 93 61 89 61 / 20 30 20 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 93 64 88 65 / 20 30 20 50
SOCORRO......................... 95 66 90 66 / 20 30 20 50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 84 53 82 55 / 30 30 50 60
TIJERAS......................... 86 59 82 59 / 30 30 30 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 88 54 81 54 / 30 40 60 60
CLINES CORNERS.................. 78 54 77 56 / 30 60 50 60
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 82 59 82 59 / 20 40 50 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 88 62 87 61 / 30 50 30 40
RUIDOSO......................... 81 54 78 53 / 50 60 60 50
CAPULIN......................... 74 51 73 54 / 20 30 40 40
RATON........................... 77 54 75 56 / 20 30 50 40
SPRINGER........................ 76 53 77 55 / 30 40 50 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 73 51 74 53 / 30 50 50 50
CLAYTON......................... 76 56 79 60 / 20 20 30 40
ROY............................. 73 56 74 58 / 30 40 50 50
CONCHAS......................... 81 62 82 64 / 30 40 50 50
SANTA ROSA...................... 79 60 80 61 / 30 50 50 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 81 61 82 65 / 30 50 50 50
CLOVIS.......................... 81 60 79 61 / 40 60 50 40
PORTALES........................ 84 62 81 64 / 40 60 50 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 82 63 82 65 / 40 60 50 40
ROSWELL......................... 90 68 85 68 / 40 60 30 40
PICACHO......................... 83 63 79 62 / 40 60 40 40
ELK............................. 81 60 76 58 / 50 60 50 40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER WESTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LAST
SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND IS CURRENTLY WORKING
THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD 12Z...AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z
TODAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LOCATED OVER CROSBY. BASED ON THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS
LOOP AND SHORTWAVE POSITION...CONCUR WITH THE LATEST HRRR
SKY/CEILING AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST...THAT THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. SHOULD MENTION
THAT THESE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...THE HRRR AND WRF...TRY TO
REDEVELOP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN MONTANA AND NEAR OUR WESTERN
BORDER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE
LIMITING THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE CUMULUS FIELD...FELT THE AREAL
COVERAGE WOULD BE VERY MINIMAL FOR ANY MENTION OF MEASURABLE POPS AT
THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN ADJUST AND ADD SOMETHING IF THIS AREA
GROWS LARGER THAN ANTICIPATED. FARTHER EAST...THE SHOWERS
COMPLETELY EXIT THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 22Z. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 10 MPH TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE THE 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH/COLD POCKET OVERHEAD TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WHERE CLOUDS/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON...TO AROUND 70 IN THE WEST WHERE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL EMERGE. FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT
WINDS AND A CLEARING SKY WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
NORMAL LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. RECORD LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S...BUT NOT EXPECTING TO GET THAT COLD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WEDNESDAY ON A QUIET NOTE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 80S.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP WITH TRANSIENT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO RISE UNDER
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MID TO UPPER 80S) OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. OVERALL IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM WEEKEND...AND
ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT
THE MAJORITY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
MVFR CIGS WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE THE TERMINALS
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY...WITH CIGS THINNING AND LIFTING TO VFR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECTING KISN TO
SEE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY 12Z TUESDAY...KMOT/KDIK BY 15Z
TUESDAY...AND KBIS AROUND 18Z. KJMS WILL BE THE LAST AERODROME TO
SEE THE MVFR CIGS LIFT TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 30KT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10KT AFTER
02Z TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
HEAVY RAINS FELL OVER THE SOURIS BASIN THIS PAST WEEKEND.
BOTH ALAMEDA DAM AND LAKE DARLING WILL BE STORING A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY THESE STORMS WHILE STILL KEEPING
SOME STORAGE AVAILABLE FOR FUTURE RAINFALL EVENTS. HOWEVER WITH
THE RECENT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN IN
CANADA...RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM WILL INCREASE OVER THE COMING
DAYS AND THUS INCREASING THE RELEASES DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE DARLING.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE SOURIS RIVER TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...JV/JJS/KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
417 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...
COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT...
MASKED BY OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...
GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PUSHING SOUTH AT A GOOD CLIP AND WILL BE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE WHILE IT APPEARS IN THE 3 AM CDT
SURFACE ANALYSIS THAT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS STILL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE SLOW SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING AND BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE SOUTH AT 850
HPA AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE KLBB 88D VWP
AND VELOCITY PRODUCTS WITH AROUND 50 KTS 200-300 FT AGL. THE RIDGE
HAS SLID BACK TO THE WEST AS SHOWN AT 500 HPA WITH RATHER WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW AT 250 HPA. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BUT HAVE POOR PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...EVEN THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS. THIS POSES SOME
PROBLEMS FOR HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD TODAY AND THE MODELS REFLECT
THIS WITH QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF WHEN
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP. THE NAM HAS A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST
AREA BY 21Z WHILE THE RUC AND SOME EXTENT THE GFS HOLD OFF UNTIL
CLOSER TO 00Z. SURPRISINGLY...THE TTU WRF KEEPS LITTLE TO NO
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND MOST OF THE OF
THE EVENING BEFORE BREAKING OUT STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY WITH AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE
BUT WITH A VERY WEAK SHEAR PROFILE. THERE IS SOME TURNING OF WIND
DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT SO A FEW STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE AND
PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE TOO SPOTTY TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL PLACE A MENTION IN THE
HWO...MAINLY FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS.
ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE VERY MOIST WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA SO SOME WET MICROBURSTS COULD ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
ALL THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST WAS PRETTY MUCH IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAD TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS THIS
MORNING TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND
THEN INCREASING THEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE CHANCE RANGE.
NORTHERN COUNTIES WERE PRETTY MUCH LEFT UNCHANGED SINCE THEY WERE
ALREADY IN THE LIKELY RANGE AND WERE SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED WELL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN
EARLY IN THE DAY WHILE HIGH CLOUD COVER LIMITS INSOLATION IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HANG ON TO LOW 90S FOR NOW ACROSS THAT REGION WHILE
RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS HOLDS TEMPS
DOWN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT
BUT COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS DUE AGAIN TO
RAIN-COOLED AIR AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
JORDAN
&&
.LONG TERM...
UNSETTLED CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ALREADY IN PLACE WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE AND RISING HEIGHTS BY THURSDAY
AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO OUR WEST BEGINS FLEXING ITS MUSCLES.
THEREAFTER THIS HIGH AND ITS ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS ARE PROGGED TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND SUBJECT OUR AREA TO SEASONABLE TEMPS
UNDER A DRY NELY FLOW REGIME.
GREATEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SORTING OUT CONVECTIVE DETAILS WED
AND THU AS MULTIPLE BOUTS OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR AT SOME POINTS
THROUGHOUT THIS TIMEFRAME. TODAY/S COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR
THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED UNTIL IT
LIFTS NORTH ON THURSDAY AND BEGINS DIFFUSING IN THE PROCESS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SHARPEST VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
SUBSEQUENT DEEPER OMEGA ON WEDNESDAY...SO WE/LL KEEP HIGH CHANCE
POPS AREA WIDE BEFORE TAPERING THESE BACK WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONTINUED WEAK STEERING WINDS ALONG WITH RICH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2
INCHES FAVOR HEAVY RAIN AS OUR BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE DAYS
AHEAD...SO THE HWO WILL BE REVISITED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.
EVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE QUITE NOISY WITH CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WE/LL AVOID READING TOO MUCH
INTO SPECIFIC QPF BULLSEYES THIS FAR OUT AND INSTEAD WAIT FOR THE
FINER AND MORE USEFUL DETAILS TO HOPEFULLY EMERGE IN THE TIME
AHEAD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 78 61 80 62 86 / 60 70 50 30 20
TULIA 80 62 79 62 85 / 60 70 50 40 20
PLAINVIEW 82 63 80 62 86 / 50 60 50 40 20
LEVELLAND 86 65 84 63 89 / 50 60 50 30 20
LUBBOCK 87 65 83 64 88 / 50 60 50 40 20
DENVER CITY 88 66 86 65 90 / 40 50 50 30 20
BROWNFIELD 88 67 85 64 90 / 40 50 50 30 20
CHILDRESS 87 67 82 65 87 / 50 60 50 40 30
SPUR 88 68 85 68 89 / 40 50 50 40 20
ASPERMONT 93 71 88 68 90 / 30 50 50 30 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
343 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL
NORTH OF A COASTAL TROPICAL STORM ALSO INCREASES. DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT BY THE START OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT TUESDAY...
HAVE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN HIGHER THETA-E ZONE PER LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM THE TRIAD INTO THE VA FOOTHILLS. MODELS KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA THRU THE MORNING. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THOUGH WEAK IS ALSO PICKED UP ON THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE SHIFTING EAST TO THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE.
THE 00Z GFS AND 04Z HRRR SHOWING A MORE REALISTIC VIEW...WITH ECMWF
NOT TOO BAD EITHER. TODAY WILL BE VERY WARM...AND APPEARS THREAT OF
STORMS IS MINIMAL...GIVEN CAP IN PLACE. MODELS BREAK THE CAP BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER THETA-E AND LOW L CONVERGENCE SETTING
UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OF VA. OVERALL KEPT POPS ISOLATED IN MOST
LOCALES WITH SCATTERED/30 POPS IN THE FLOYD/ROANOKE/NRV AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOST LOCATION STAY RAINFREE. ANY STORMS
TODAY WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AGAIN AND WITH PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE...HEAVY RAINERS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES...BUT AGAIN VERY ISOLATED SO NO WATCH WARRANTED. STORM MOTION
PER MODELS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
WATCHING UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES. MODELS SHOW
WEAKENING THIS MORNING AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO WRN OHIO AND SRN
INDIANA. MODELS THEN FIRE CONVECTION UP AGAIN FROM WRN PA SOUTHWEST
TO SRN OHIO/NRN KY BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SLOW IT DOWN AND FADE IT
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT TO OUR NW. AT LEAST WILL KEEP/HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE WV MTNS INTO PORTIONS OF SW VA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...PER LOW LVL THETA-E RIDGING INCREASING AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE LATE.
AS FOR TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HOT...AS THINK SUNSHINE WILL BE ABUNDANT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR GOOD HEATING. THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AGAIN WILL
HELP PREVENT TEMPS FROM SOARING TOO FAR WHILE WINDS STAY MORE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WEST/MTNS...TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT TO REMAIN MUGGY AS TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
MTNS TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO APPROACH THE APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
KICKING OUT THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS WESTERN SLOPES OF
APPALACHIANS BY LATE IN THE DAY. NO DISTINCT SFC FEATURES ALTHOUGH A
WEAK LEE TROUGH IS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON. NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THIS FAR NORTH OF WHERE TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BE BY LATE WED...STILL OFF COAST NEAR
SAVANNAH. VERY WARM LOWER LEVELS...INCREASING DEW PTS INTO LOWER
70S...RESULTS IN SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WHILE LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT ESPECIALLY STEEP...THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MODERATE SHEAR AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AS WELL AS
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR...SHOULD STILL RESULT IN A RISK OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING PRIMARY THREAT.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN WEST CLOSER TO THIS UPPER WAVE AND WHERE
BETTER MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS...BUT WITH WEAK LEE TROUGH POSSIBLE AND HOT
TEMPERATURES...EAST OF BLUE RIDGE LIKELY TO GET INTO THE GAME AT
SOME POINT...MAY BE MORE IN THE EVENING THERE. SPC HAS UPGRADED TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS WELL. IF TEMPS
REACH MID 80S WEST AND MID 90S EAST...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM UPPER 80S WEST TO THE 100-105 RANGE EAST. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT QUICKLY DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FROM WHAT IS IN CURRENT FCST...BUT THIS WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY IN THE WEST. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A HEAT ADV HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT IF THESE FCST HIGHS OF LOWER TO MID
90S ARE REALIZED...BUT RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE SMALL AREAS FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
BY THURSDAY...SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN SECOND EJECTING SHORT WAVE FROM
MIDWEST TROUGH AND PROBABLE TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVING NORTHEAST
UP CAROLINA COAST...MAY HELP WRING OUT MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.
WHILE TROPICAL STORM ITSELF DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO GIVE US DIRECT
IMPACT BASED ON CURRENT CONSENSUS TRACKS...THE ADVECTION OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COULD
PRODUCE ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND
FACT THAT MODELS NOT PRODUCING ESPECIALLY HIGH PRECIP AMTS OVER OUR
REGION MAKES ANY NEED FOR FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE CLOSELY WATCHED OVER NEXT 48
HRS. MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD OVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND
THUS INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL A LITTLE LESS
THURSDAY...BUT AS MENTIONED THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN WED.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY LIFTING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
QUICKLY NORTHEAST OFF NC COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE BLACKSBURG CWA...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
WATCH THE PIEDMONT AREAS FOR LINGERING HEAVY RAINFALL...AT LEAST
INTO THE EVENING. MODERATELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS POINT DESPITE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST...SOUTH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ACCORDING TO CONSENSUS OF CURRENT MODELS...BUT
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THAT TO BE REFINED. THE OTHER WEATHER STORY
WILL THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS COULD DROP AS LOW AS THE UPPER
40S IN OUR FAR NW BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA
WHICH WILL BE A PLEASANT CHANGE FOR THE HUMIDITY AVERSE OUT THERE.
DAYTIME HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BOTH SAT/SUN. WONT LAST TOO LONG AS IT IS JULY AND
RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...
HAVE BKN VFR CIGS AT KDAN/KBCB/KROA AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME IN THE
FORM OF AC/SC. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DOTTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF VA
BUT NOT SEEING ANY THREAT TO TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.
FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AT PLACES WHERE IT RAINED...AND ALREADY
SEEING THIS AT LWB. TAKING LWB DOWN TO LIFR BY 09Z...AS DO NOT SEE
ANY UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER THAT WILL HINDER DENSE FOG FORMATION.
THINK THE CLOUD COVER IN THE BCB/ROA AREA WILL KEEP FOG FROM
BECOMING AN ISSUE...BUT DO HAVE BCB COMING DOWN TO 5SM BY 09Z.
FOG AND VFR CIGS DISPERSE SOME LATER THIS MORNING BUT WILL SEE
SCT-BKN CU OFF AND ON THROUGH THE DAY WITH CIRRUS ALOFT DUE TO
BLOWOFF FROM UPSTREAM STORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA DOES NOT LOOK STRONG TODAY BUT MODELS
OVERALL PAINTING SOME NEAR BCB/ROA IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE VCSH
FOR NOW THERE. THUNDER HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE FAR WEST...THOUGH
LACK OF WEDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE THUNDER IN THE AREA TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. MODELS SHOW THE COLD
FRONT SLOWING DOWN ALONG THE PIEDMONT DUE TO A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BOOT THE COLD FRONT AND TROPICAL LOW AWAY TO BRING A
DRIER AIR MASS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW/SK
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...RCS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
135 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE
MORE WARM AND HUMID AIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DEPARTING BY THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EDT MONDAY...
ISOLATED -SHRA HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF SE WV AND NW NC WITHIN A
CONVERGENCE ZONE. HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AND THEN NEW ACTIVITY OF A SIMILAR VARIETY WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN WV...THEN DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS.
NONE OF THIS APPEARS TO BE PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT.
THUS...MODIFIED POPS ACCORDINGLY...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 700 PM EDT MONDAY...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED FAIRLY EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH ONLY SOME VERY SMALL SHOWERS NOTED JUST NORTH OF
GREENBRIER COUNTY...BUT WELL NORTH OF THE GREENBRIER RESORT AREA.
OTHER POPUP LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED BETWEEN BCB...SIF...HLX. WHILE
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD POP UP -SHRA/SHRA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...DOWNWARD POP TRENDS ADVERTISED TO BELOW 15 PERCENT LOOK
GOOD...AND IN FACT APPEARS MAY OCCUR EVEN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.
CG LIGHTNING HAS BEEN FEW...FAR BETWEEN TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
CAPPED AND ESSENTIALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. T/TD ON TRACK...WITH AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN A TAD COOLER THAN OTHERWISE ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL
TREND TOWARD THE MEAN AS THE AIR MIXES OUT. OTHER THAN LOWER POPS
FOR THE NEXT FEW OURS...NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE WEAK COOL WEDGE IS KEEPING INSTABILITY IN CHECK ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN CWA.
DUE TO A FAIRLY HUMID AIR MASS OVERHEAD...HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
THREAT IF THE STORMS TRAIN. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
LIMITED WITH THE WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT A WET MICROBURST IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR ANY STRONG STORM THAT MAY DEVELOP WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THESE THREATS WILL CONTINUED TO BE ADVERTISED
IN THE HWO.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET FROM LOSS OF
SOLAR HEATING. THE MODELS DEPICT DRY WEATHER AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SUBTLE SIGNS OF SKIES CLEARING IN THE WEST.
HOWEVER...THE WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAINFALL MAY PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN AWAY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED ON TUESDAY...AS THE
CWA EXPERIENCES MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NOT
PUSHED ALL THE WAY TOWARD THE HOTTER MAV GUIDANCE...DUE TO
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND ANOTHER THREAT FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...AS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT AND
DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY...WE REMAIN SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT
CONVERGENCE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROF AS WELL AS AN INFLUX OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GREATER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE AS CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED OVER 2000 J/KG EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPS COULD BE VERY WARM
WITH THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER OUR REGION. CONTINUED THE TREND OF
PREVIOUS FORECASTS USING A GFS/NAM BLEND FOR HIGHS.
LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP. THERE ARE SOME
SIGNALS FOR A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT (PRE)TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...WITH A
LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
LOW AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. FINALLY...BACKING
OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WAS NOTED BY BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF IN THE
FAR EAST WHICH IS ANOTHER SIGN FOR A POTENTIAL PRE...BUT AS OF
THIS WRITING PARAMETERS ARE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SREF PLUMES AT LYNCHBURG INDICATE MOST
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 1.00 INCHES...BUT A
FEW MEMBERS ARE FORECASTING 1-2 INCHES. A CLOSE EYE WILL HAVE TO
KEPT ON THIS.
AS FOR TEMPS...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND TRIMMED HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
THURSDAY WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...
MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE EAST COAST. AT THIS POINT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN EURO AND GFS AS TO TRACK AND
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO INTENSITY. GFS MUCH WEAKER WITH TRACK
SLIGHTLY INLAND VERSUS EURO. EARLY (12Z) CYCLE TRACK AND INTENSITY
GUIDANCE FROM NHC SHOWS FAIRLY DECENT CLUSTERING OF MODELS ALONG OR
JUST INLAND OF THE NC COAST WITH A TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
EFFECTS ON LOCAL WEATHER REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR BUT HAVE KEPT
LIKELY POPS OVER OUR EASTERN PIEDMONT DIMINISHING WESTWARD TO SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS SECTION...THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ACCORDING TO CONSENSUS OF CURRENT MODELS...BUT PLENTY OF TIME FOR
THAT TO BE REFINED. THE OTHER WEATHER STORY WILL THE SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY OVER THE
WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS COULD DROP AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S IN OUR FAR
NW BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA WHICH WILL BE A
PLEASANT CHANGE FOR THE HUMIDITY AVERSE OUT THERE. DAYTIME HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BOTH
SAT/SUN. WONT LAST TOO LONG AS IT IS JULY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POPS
BACK IN THE FORECAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...
HAVE BKN VFR CIGS AT KDAN/KBCB/KROA AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME IN THE
FORM OF AC/SC. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DOTTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF VA
BUT NOT SEEING ANY THREAT TO TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.
FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AT PLACES WHERE IT RAINED...AND ALREADY
SEEING THIS AT LWB. TAKING LWB DOWN TO LIFR BY 09Z...AS DO NOT SEE
ANY UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER THAT WILL HINDER DENSE FOG FORMATION.
THINK THE CLOUD COVER IN THE BCB/ROA AREA WILL KEEP FOG FROM
BECOMING AN ISSUE...BUT DO HAVE BCB COMING DOWN TO 5SM BY 09Z.
FOG AND VFR CIGS DISPERSE SOME LATER THIS MORNING BUT WILL SEE
SCT-BKN CU OFF AND ON THROUGH THE DAY WITH CIRRUS ALOFT DUE TO
BLOWOFF FROM UPSTREAM STORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA DOES NOT LOOK STRONG TODAY BUT MODELS
OVERALL PAINTING SOME NEAR BCB/ROA IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE VCSH
FOR NOW THERE. THUNDER HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE FAR WEST...THOUGH
LACK OF WEDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE THUNDER IN THE AREA TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. MODELS SHOW THE COLD
FRONT SLOWING DOWN ALONG THE PIEDMONT DUE TO A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BOOT THE COLD FRONT AND TROPICAL LOW AWAY TO BRING A
DRIER AIR MASS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW/RAB
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...RCS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1159 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE
MORE WARM AND HUMID AIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DEPARTING BY THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EDT MONDAY...
ISOLATED -SHRA HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF SE WV AND NW NC WITHIN A
CONVERGENCE ZONE. HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AND THEN NEW ACTIVITY OF A SIMILAR VARIETY WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN WV...THEN DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS.
NONE OF THIS APPEARS TO BE PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT.
THUS...MODIFIED POPS ACCORDINGLY...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 700 PM EDT MONDAY...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED FAIRLY EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH ONLY SOME VERY SMALL SHOWERS NOTED JUST NORTH OF
GREENBRIER COUNTY...BUT WELL NORTH OF THE GREENBRIER RESORT AREA.
OTHER POPUP LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED BETWEEN BCB...SIF...HLX. WHILE
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD POP UP -SHRA/SHRA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...DOWNWARD POP TRENDS ADVERTISED TO BELOW 15 PERCENT LOOK
GOOD...AND IN FACT APPEARS MAY OCCUR EVEN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.
CG LIGHTNING HAS BEEN FEW...FAR BETWEEN TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
CAPPED AND ESSENTIALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. T/TD ON TRACK...WITH AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN A TAD COOLER THAN OTHERWISE ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL
TREND TOWARD THE MEAN AS THE AIR MIXES OUT. OTHER THAN LOWER POPS
FOR THE NEXT FEW OURS...NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE WEAK COOL WEDGE IS KEEPING INSTABILITY IN CHECK ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN CWA.
DUE TO A FAIRLY HUMID AIR MASS OVERHEAD...HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
THREAT IF THE STORMS TRAIN. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
LIMITED WITH THE WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT A WET MICROBURST IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR ANY STRONG STORM THAT MAY DEVELOP WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THESE THREATS WILL CONTINUED TO BE ADVERTISED
IN THE HWO.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET FROM LOSS OF
SOLAR HEATING. THE MODELS DEPICT DRY WEATHER AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SUBTLE SIGNS OF SKIES CLEARING IN THE WEST.
HOWEVER...THE WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAINFALL MAY PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN AWAY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED ON TUESDAY...AS THE
CWA EXPERIENCES MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NOT
PUSHED ALL THE WAY TOWARD THE HOTTER MAV GUIDANCE...DUE TO
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND ANOTHER THREAT FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...AS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT AND
DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY...WE REMAIN SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT
CONVERGENCE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROF AS WELL AS AN INFLUX OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GREATER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE AS CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED OVER 2000 J/KG EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPS COULD BE VERY WARM
WITH THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER OUR REGION. CONTINUED THE TREND OF
PREVIOUS FORECASTS USING A GFS/NAM BLEND FOR HIGHS.
LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP. THERE ARE SOME
SIGNALS FOR A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT (PRE)TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...WITH A
LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
LOW AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. FINALLY...BACKING
OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WAS NOTED BY BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF IN THE
FAR EAST WHICH IS ANOTHER SIGN FOR A POTENTIAL PRE...BUT AS OF
THIS WRITING PARAMETERS ARE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SREF PLUMES AT LYNCHBURG INDICATE MOST
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 1.00 INCHES...BUT A
FEW MEMBERS ARE FORECASTING 1-2 INCHES. A CLOSE EYE WILL HAVE TO
KEPT ON THIS.
AS FOR TEMPS...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND TRIMMED HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
THURSDAY WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...
MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE EAST COAST. AT THIS POINT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN EURO AND GFS AS TO TRACK AND
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO INTENSITY. GFS MUCH WEAKER WITH TRACK
SLIGHTLY INLAND VERSUS EURO. EARLY (12Z) CYCLE TRACK AND INTENSITY
GUIDANCE FROM NHC SHOWS FAIRLY DECENT CLUSTERING OF MODELS ALONG OR
JUST INLAND OF THE NC COAST WITH A TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
EFFECTS ON LOCAL WEATHER REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR BUT HAVE KEPT
LIKELY POPS OVER OUR EASTERN PIEDMONT DIMINISHING WESTWARD TO SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS SECTION...THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ACCORDING TO CONSENSUS OF CURRENT MODELS...BUT PLENTY OF TIME FOR
THAT TO BE REFINED. THE OTHER WEATHER STORY WILL THE SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY OVER THE
WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS COULD DROP AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S IN OUR FAR
NW BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA WHICH WILL BE A
PLEASANT CHANGE FOR THE HUMIDITY AVERSE OUT THERE. DAYTIME HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BOTH
SAT/SUN. WONT LAST TOO LONG AS IT IS JULY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POPS
BACK IN THE FORECAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT MONDAY...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE FADING THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH LINGERING INSTABILITIES AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70F ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS COUNTIES...A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER DEEP INTO THE EVENING. MOST SHOWERS THAT
FORMED DURING PEAK HEATING DID NOT MAKE IT ABOVE 20KFT BUT WERE
VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. SO ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL
REMAIN SMALL BUT COULD PRODUCE SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES PASSING OVER A
SITE. NOT MUCH LIGHTNING FROM AFTERNOON STORMS...THEREFORE WILL
CARRY VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH 10P/02Z.
BROKEN CLOUD COVER MAY PERSIST WELL THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME CLEARING BY
EARLY MORNING MAY ALLOW DENSE LIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT LWB...WHICH
MODEL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES QUITE CONFIDENTLY. MVFR FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT KBCB AND KBLF...ALONG WITH ANYWHERE ELSE THAT RECEIVES
SIGNIFICANT RAIN THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME AFTER
12Z TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD
FROM THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. MODELS SHOW
THE COLD FRONT SLOWING DOWN ALONG THE PIEDMONT DUE TO A DEVELOPING
TROPICAL LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BOOT THE COLD FRONT AND TROPICAL LOW
AWAY TO BRING A DRIER AIR MASS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW/RAB
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...PW/RCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
955 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT CAP WILL
BE IN PLACE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION AND HAVE
REMOVED ANY LOW CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR THERE MAY BE LITTLE IF ANY
CONVECTION THE ENTIRE DAY. HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...WITH LI/S TO -8 TO -10 AND CAPE AROUND 4000
J/KG. IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING THERE WILL BE A SEVERE THREAT...AND
SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE A 15 PERCENT SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER. HAVE SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND THE WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
AS A LINE OF CONVECTION QUICKLY DROPPED DOWN ACROSS INDIANA TOWARDS
NORTHERN KY SEVERAL HOURS AGO...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED
ACROSS EASTERN KY. SINCE THAT TIME...THE INITIAL LINE HAS DIED
OUT...BUT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EASTERN KY
NORTHWARDS INTO OHIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW EXITING FAR EASTERN
KY...THOUGH DECIDED TO KEEP IN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CASE THERE IS ANY REDEVELOPMENT. THESE
POPS MAY BE OVERKILL...THOUGH THE HRRR DOES SHOW POTENTIAL SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH 15Z AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WENT BACK THROUGH
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPDATED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...SO
OVERALL PATTERN DIDN/T CHANGE. FINALLY...LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS TO THE FORECAST TO MAKE SURE THAT CURRENT CONDITIONS
WERE REFLECTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
CONVECTION IS ONGOING TO OUR NW ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SE. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
STARTED DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THIS SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 MODEL GUIDANCE...SO WENT
AHEAD AND INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR NW HAS DEVELOPED TWO LINES...THE
FIRST IS DROPPING VERY QUICKLY SE...FEEDING OFF A CORRIDOR OF LLVL
MOISTURE EXTENDING NWRD FROM CENTRAL KY INTO SE INDIANA AND SW
OH...AS WELL AS CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/CAPE VALUES. AS IT
CONTINUES IN THIS DIRECTION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE LOSING STRENGTH AND BEGINNING TO BREAK.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND POSE LITTLE THREAT IF IT DOES MAKE
IT INTO NORTHERN KY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SECONDARY AND
MORE ROBUST LINE IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH EASTERN KY JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT AS IT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY...AND LOSE A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF ENERGY. A WAVE OF QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
STILL SET UP ALONG MUCH OF KY...BUT IT WILL HAVE LESSENED QUITE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM WHAT IS ONGOING AT THE MOMENT TO OUR NW. THE LAST
ECMWF RUN SHOWS ANY AREAS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY STAYING NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. ALSO...WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING A HIGH CAPE BUT LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW. ONCE THE CAP BREAKS BY LATE AFTERNOON...CAPE
VALUES WILL HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY FROM 4-5K J/KG TO 3-4K J/KG...AND
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL OR SPEED SHEAR. AS
SUCH...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH LITTLE DRIVING FORCE TO
KEEP THEM SUSTAINED/LONG LIVED.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE A SLIGHT PROGRESSION EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT...PUSHING CONVECTION FURTHER INTO THE
CWA AND FINALLY ENCOMPASSING ALL OF EASTERN KY BY THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING SE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG
PUSH IN SRLY FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE MERCURY UP TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN THIS
YEAR. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES COULD MEAN HEAT INDEXES
REACHING NEAR 100 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS HIGH ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
80S ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
EXTENDED. THEY ALL TAKE A DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS TROUGH/S ENERGY ROLLS PAST EAST KENTUCKY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN RISE
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...A LAST PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM PASSES DURING THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ITS ENERGY IS KEPT ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE OHIO RIVER. ALSO OF NOTE...THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SCOOT THE EVOLVING TROPICAL SYSTEM...OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
ALONG AHEAD OF IT LIKELY SPARING KENTUCKY ANY OF ITS EXCESSIVE
TROPICAL MOISTURE. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BE CLIMBING OVER
KENTUCKY AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGE EXERTS SOME TEMPORARY DOMINANCE FOR
OUR WEATHER. THE ECMWF IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE GFS...AND ESPECIALLY
THE GEM...WITH THIS PROCESS. THE RIDGE NEVER DOES BECOME TOO STRONG
OVER THE AREA...THOUGH...SO THAT BY SUNDAY...A FEW MINOR WAVES WILL
START TO RIPPLE PAST THE STATE IN WEAK FLOW. THE ECMWF HAS A POCKET
OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY MONDAY MORNING THAT HAS
LITTLE OTHER MODEL SUPPORT SO IT HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. FOR
THE MOST PART...FAVORED A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION WANES HEADING INTO THE POST
HOLIDAY WORK WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION OF A LARGE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING THURSDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...JUST IN TIME FOR THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. THE DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EVEN AS THE COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT IT
MODERATES ALLOWING FOR A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE JUST AFTER
PEAK HEATING MONDAY...BUT STILL RATHER SMALL GIVEN THE WEAK FEATURES
ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY SFC BOUNDARIES.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE EXTENDED...THOUGH DID
ADJUST THE EXIT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LIMIT THEM TO
MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND ALSO KEPT VERY SMALL CHANCES IN THE
NORTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMPERATURE
GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO GIVE MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A COLD FRONT TO OUR NW IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION. AFTER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA
TO REMAIN DRY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN THREATEN TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE FRONT BECOMES STALLED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A THREAT THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LARGE HAIL ALL THREATS TO CONTEND WITH. COVERAGE OF
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL LESSON. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED PREVAILING WX
FOR LATE TONIGHT. AS NOTED ABOVE...EXACT IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE
DETERMINED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE ONSET...BUT DID AT LEAST TRY TO
TREND TOWARDS SOME LOWERING CONDITIONS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
713 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
AS A LINE OF CONVECTION QUICKLY DROPPED DOWN ACROSS INDIANA TOWARDS
NORTHERN KY SEVERAL HOURS AGO...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED
ACROSS EASTERN KY. SINCE THAT TIME...THE INITIAL LINE HAS DIED
OUT...BUT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EASTERN KY
NORTHWARDS INTO OHIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW EXITING FAR EASTERN
KY...THOUGH DECIDED TO KEEP IN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CASE THERE IS ANY REDEVELOPMENT. THESE
POPS MAY BE OVERKILL...THOUGH THE HRRR DOES SHOW POTENTIAL SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH 15Z AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WENT BACK THROUGH
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPDATED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...SO
OVERALL PATTERN DIDN/T CHANGE. FINALLY...LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS TO THE FORECAST TO MAKE SURE THAT CURRENT CONDITIONS
WERE REFLECTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
CONVECTION IS ONGOING TO OUR NW ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SE. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
STARTED DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THIS SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 MODEL GUIDANCE...SO WENT
AHEAD AND INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR NW HAS DEVELOPED TWO LINES...THE
FIRST IS DROPPING VERY QUICKLY SE...FEEDING OFF A CORRIDOR OF LLVL
MOISTURE EXTENDING NWRD FROM CENTRAL KY INTO SE INDIANA AND SW
OH...AS WELL AS CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/CAPE VALUES. AS IT
CONTINUES IN THIS DIRECTION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE LOSING STRENGTH AND BEGINNING TO BREAK.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND POSE LITTLE THREAT IF IT DOES MAKE
IT INTO NORTHERN KY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SECONDARY AND
MORE ROBUST LINE IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH EASTERN KY JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT AS IT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY...AND LOSE A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF ENERGY. A WAVE OF QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
STILL SET UP ALONG MUCH OF KY...BUT IT WILL HAVE LESSENED QUITE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM WHAT IS ONGOING AT THE MOMENT TO OUR NW. THE LAST
ECMWF RUN SHOWS ANY AREAS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY STAYING NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. ALSO...WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING A HIGH CAPE BUT LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW. ONCE THE CAP BREAKS BY LATE AFTERNOON...CAPE
VALUES WILL HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY FROM 4-5K J/KG TO 3-4K J/KG...AND
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL OR SPEED SHEAR. AS
SUCH...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH LITTLE DRIVING FORCE TO
KEEP THEM SUSTAINED/LONG LIVED.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE A SLIGHT PROGRESSION EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT...PUSHING CONVECTION FURTHER INTO THE
CWA AND FINALLY ENCOMPASSING ALL OF EASTERN KY BY THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING SE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG
PUSH IN SRLY FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE MERCURY UP TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN THIS
YEAR. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES COULD MEAN HEAT INDEXES
REACHING NEAR 100 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS HIGH ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
80S ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
EXTENDED. THEY ALL TAKE A DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS TROUGH/S ENERGY ROLLS PAST EAST KENTUCKY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN RISE
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...A LAST PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM PASSES DURING THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ITS ENERGY IS KEPT ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE OHIO RIVER. ALSO OF NOTE...THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SCOOT THE EVOLVING TROPICAL SYSTEM...OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
ALONG AHEAD OF IT LIKELY SPARING KENTUCKY ANY OF ITS EXCESSIVE
TROPICAL MOISTURE. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BE CLIMBING OVER
KENTUCKY AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGE EXERTS SOME TEMPORARY DOMINANCE FOR
OUR WEATHER. THE ECMWF IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE GFS...AND ESPECIALLY
THE GEM...WITH THIS PROCESS. THE RIDGE NEVER DOES BECOME TOO STRONG
OVER THE AREA...THOUGH...SO THAT BY SUNDAY...A FEW MINOR WAVES WILL
START TO RIPPLE PAST THE STATE IN WEAK FLOW. THE ECMWF HAS A POCKET
OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY MONDAY MORNING THAT HAS
LITTLE OTHER MODEL SUPPORT SO IT HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. FOR
THE MOST PART...FAVORED A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION WANES HEADING INTO THE POST
HOLIDAY WORK WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION OF A LARGE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING THURSDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...JUST IN TIME FOR THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. THE DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EVEN AS THE COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT IT
MODERATES ALLOWING FOR A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE JUST AFTER
PEAK HEATING MONDAY...BUT STILL RATHER SMALL GIVEN THE WEAK FEATURES
ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY SFC BOUNDARIES.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE EXTENDED...THOUGH DID
ADJUST THE EXIT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LIMIT THEM TO
MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND ALSO KEPT VERY SMALL CHANCES IN THE
NORTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMPERATURE
GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO GIVE MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A COLD FRONT TO OUR NW IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION. AFTER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA
TO REMAIN DRY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN THREATEN TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE FRONT BECOMES STALLED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A THREAT THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LARGE HAIL ALL THREATS TO CONTEND WITH. COVERAGE OF
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL LESSON. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED PREVAILING WX
FOR LATE TONIGHT. AS NOTED ABOVE...EXACT IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE
DETERMINED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE ONSET...BUT DID AT LEAST TRY TO
TREND TOWARDS SOME LOWERING CONDITIONS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
646 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
AS A LINE OF CONVECTION QUICKLY DROPPED DOWN ACROSS INDIANA TOWARDS
NORTHERN KY SEVERAL HOURS AGO...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED
ACROSS EASTERN KY. SINCE THAT TIME...THE INITIAL LINE HAS DIED
OUT...BUT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EASTERN KY
NORTHWARDS INTO OHIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW EXITING FAR EASTERN
KY...THOUGH DECIDED TO KEEP IN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CASE THERE IS ANY REDEVELOPMENT. THESE
POPS MAY BE OVERKILL...THOUGH THE HRRR DOES SHOW POTENTIAL SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH 15Z AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WENT BACK THROUGH
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPDATED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...SO
OVERALL PATTERN DIDN/T CHANGE. FINALLY...LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS TO THE FORECAST TO MAKE SURE THAT CURRENT CONDITIONS
WERE REFLECTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
CONVECTION IS ONGOING TO OUR NW ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SE. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
STARTED DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THIS SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 MODEL GUIDANCE...SO WENT
AHEAD AND INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR NW HAS DEVELOPED TWO LINES...THE
FIRST IS DROPPING VERY QUICKLY SE...FEEDING OFF A CORRIDOR OF LLVL
MOISTURE EXTENDING NWRD FROM CENTRAL KY INTO SE INDIANA AND SW
OH...AS WELL AS CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/CAPE VALUES. AS IT
CONTINUES IN THIS DIRECTION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE LOSING STRENGTH AND BEGINNING TO BREAK.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND POSE LITTLE THREAT IF IT DOES MAKE
IT INTO NORTHERN KY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SECONDARY AND
MORE ROBUST LINE IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH EASTERN KY JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT AS IT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY...AND LOSE A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF ENERGY. A WAVE OF QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
STILL SET UP ALONG MUCH OF KY...BUT IT WILL HAVE LESSENED QUITE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM WHAT IS ONGOING AT THE MOMENT TO OUR NW. THE LAST
ECMWF RUN SHOWS ANY AREAS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY STAYING NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. ALSO...WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING A HIGH CAPE BUT LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW. ONCE THE CAP BREAKS BY LATE AFTERNOON...CAPE
VALUES WILL HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY FROM 4-5K J/KG TO 3-4K J/KG...AND
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL OR SPEED SHEAR. AS
SUCH...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH LITTLE DRIVING FORCE TO
KEEP THEM SUSTAINED/LONG LIVED.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE A SLIGHT PROGRESSION EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT...PUSHING CONVECTION FURTHER INTO THE
CWA AND FINALLY ENCOMPASSING ALL OF EASTERN KY BY THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING SE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG
PUSH IN SRLY FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE MERCURY UP TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN THIS
YEAR. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES COULD MEAN HEAT INDEXES
REACHING NEAR 100 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS HIGH ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
80S ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
EXTENDED. THEY ALL TAKE A DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS TROUGH/S ENERGY ROLLS PAST EAST KENTUCKY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN RISE
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...A LAST PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM PASSES DURING THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ITS ENERGY IS KEPT ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE OHIO RIVER. ALSO OF NOTE...THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SCOOT THE EVOLVING TROPICAL SYSTEM...OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
ALONG AHEAD OF IT LIKELY SPARING KENTUCKY ANY OF ITS EXCESSIVE
TROPICAL MOISTURE. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BE CLIMBING OVER
KENTUCKY AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGE EXERTS SOME TEMPORARY DOMINANCE FOR
OUR WEATHER. THE ECMWF IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE GFS...AND ESPECIALLY
THE GEM...WITH THIS PROCESS. THE RIDGE NEVER DOES BECOME TOO STRONG
OVER THE AREA...THOUGH...SO THAT BY SUNDAY...A FEW MINOR WAVES WILL
START TO RIPPLE PAST THE STATE IN WEAK FLOW. THE ECMWF HAS A POCKET
OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY MONDAY MORNING THAT HAS
LITTLE OTHER MODEL SUPPORT SO IT HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. FOR
THE MOST PART...FAVORED A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION WANES HEADING INTO THE POST
HOLIDAY WORK WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION OF A LARGE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING THURSDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...JUST IN TIME FOR THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. THE DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EVEN AS THE COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT IT
MODERATES ALLOWING FOR A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE JUST AFTER
PEAK HEATING MONDAY...BUT STILL RATHER SMALL GIVEN THE WEAK FEATURES
ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY SFC BOUNDARIES.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE EXTENDED...THOUGH DID
ADJUST THE EXIT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LIMIT THEM TO
MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND ALSO KEPT VERY SMALL CHANCES IN THE
NORTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMPERATURE
GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO GIVE MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTROL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD...BESIDES A WINDOW OF POSSIBLE MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT TAF
SITES. CONVECTION TO OUR NW HAS PRODUCED A LINE OF CLOUDS NOW MAKING
THEIR WAY INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THIS CLOUD COVER MAY BE ENOUGH
TO HAMPER SOME OF THE BEST FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THREATEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AND A
BIT GUSTIER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. ADDED IN ANOTHER LINE IN THE
TAFS FOR WINDS CALMING BACK DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GAYLORD MI
1051 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO
HUDSON BAY TODAY...CONTINUING THE WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS AND
USHERING IN COOLER...DRIER AIR.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS...WILL BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
WHILE I HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND
AFTERNOON POPS...PRIMARY NOTICEABLE CHANGE WAS TO DROP
THUNDER...AS EVEN THE OVERLY-MOIST NAM CAN ONLY MUSTER 400 J/KG
WITH THE RAP FAR LESS THAN THIS. WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO
SLOWLY FALL IN THIS AREA AND REALLY NOT ALL THAT COLD OF AN
AIRMASS AT H7/5...SEE ANY THUNDER THREAT AS VERY MINOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. LIGHTNING POTENTIAL IN THE U.P.
CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:
WELL...NORTHERN MICHIGAN ESCAPED YET ANOTHER EVENT OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE WEATHER. WE DID HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS ROLL ON THROUGH...AND
SOME SMALL HAIL IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT MOST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER ONCE
AGAIN WAS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THE UPPER LEVELS SHOW A SLOWLY
ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH THE INITIAL VORT
MAX/MCV PUSHING OFF TO OUR NE. THERE IS ANOTHER EMBEDDED VORT MAX
AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH LIFTING INTO MN ATTM...WHILE YET ANOTHER
WAVE AND TROUGH WAS SEEN DROPPING INTO THE DAKOTAS. BOTH WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS...THE LATTER WITH THE MORE CONGESTED
ACTIVITY. AS FAR AS ANY IMMEDIATE WEATHER IN NRN MICHIGAN...THERE
WERE SOME SPRINKLES TRAVERSING AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32 WHILE
THERE WERE HINTS OF SOME LOWER CLOUD TRYING TO FORM...ALONG AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT THAT WAS WORKING THROUGH WISCONSIN. THE AIR MASS
REMAIN ON THE HUMID SIDE...BUT SFC DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED BACK INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S. STILL LIKELY SOME AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
COOLER WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRY AND SET UP
SHOP IN NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH FROM
MN WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER TO EASTERN UPPER AND WISCONSIN TODAY. IT`S
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
ABLE TO SPARK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS CONVERGENCE LIKELY TO BE
ENHANCED BY FUNNELING EFFECT OF WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH LAKE
MICHIGAN....AND THE DESIRE FOR MORE WNW WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH.
SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF FCST BUFR SOUNDINGS REVELS A FEW/SEVERAL
HUNDRED POTENTIAL J/KG OF MUCAPE...AND COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO. NOTHING SEVERE. MAYBE A LATE DAY SHOWER TRYING TO
FIRE OFF IN NRN LOWER...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES TONIGHT ALONG
WITH THE VORT MAX/TROUGH FROM THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE HAS A BIT
MORE ANTICIPATED FORCING ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. RIGHT NOW...THIS FORCING IS MAXIMIZED AROUND THE GTV BAY
REGION...SO BEST CHANCES THERE. TEMPERATURES NOT AS WARM TODAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOWER 70S IN EASTERN UPPER...TO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER
80S (WARMEST IN NE LOWER WITH HELP OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS). SHOULD
ALSO BE A TAD GUSTY TODAY WITH COMMON GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. MOST OF
THAT WIND WILL BE GONE HEADING THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED
COOLING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S MOST
AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
...END OF THE HEAT AND A PLEASANT FOURTH...
OVERVIEW...THE PATTERN IS AMPLIFYING AS THE 500 MB LOW THAT WAS OVER
150W YESTERDAY IS NOW AROUND 140W. THIS HAS BEGUN TO KICK THE 500 MB
LOW THAT WAS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THE LAST FEW DAYS TOWARD THE
EAST. THIS MORNING THE LOW WAS JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES EAST
(TODAY), THEN STARTING WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE RAIN FREE, COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LEADING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND.
(7/2)WEDNESDAY...AFTER THE FRONT HAS GONE THROUGH, IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WOULD BE SOME SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE 500 MB TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKED AT THE VARIOUS STABILITY
INDICES WHICH SUGGEST THAT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON, THE K-INDEX GOES NEGATIVE IN NW LOWER AND
E UPPER, AND WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE DAY SHOULD TURN OUT MOSTLY SUNNY BE THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT, AND WITH
THE COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXPECT THAT THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE INTO THE LOWER 40S. MAYBE SOME AREA COULD GET
TO THE UPPER 30S.
(7/3)THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. LEADING TO ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY AND
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WON`T RISE MUCH WITH THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 8 OR 9C. THEY WILL TRY TO MAKE A RUN AT 70F.
EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...(FOURTH OF JULY)FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, MOVING A LITTLE TO THE
EAST BY 12Z/SAT. DRY DAY. GOOD THING THAT WE KEPT THE NIGHT DRY AS
WELL. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS HAS BACK OFF THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. (7/5)SATURDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH AND THE SFC DRY
AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY DAY. HOWEVER,
OVERNIGHT, THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN A WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
LASTS INTO THE SUNDAY. (7/6)SUNDAY...WILL CONTINUE THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS THE WAVE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE REGION BOTH DURING THE DAY
AND AT NIGHT. (7/7)MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
BY THE MORNING, SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. MAYBE RAIN SHOWERS AT NIGHT AS WELL, IF THE FRONT
STALLS AS THE MODELS SUGGEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE DAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25
KTS OUT OF THE WSW. SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRETTY CLEAR AND VFR
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BEFORE THICKENING CLOUDS (STILL VFR) ARRIVE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR A ROGUE RAIN SHOWER
INCREASES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COOL AND SATURATE FOR IFR/OW END MVFR
CIGS. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE AFTER 06Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
STILL HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN A FEW
SPOTS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIOR TO A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE AROUND SUNRISE. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CORRIDOR OF WIND IN SW FLOW THAT
WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON UP THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN...STRAITS...THE ST MARYS...AND
PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. THIS GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT HEADING
THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE A ND A MUCH
MORE SLACK GRADIENT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347-
349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ARNOTT
SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
755 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROFFING INTO
THE WRN GREAT LKS TO THE S OF SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO IN NW ONTARIO
THAT LIES BTWN UPR RDGS ALONG THE W COAST AND ALONG THE E COAST. AN
IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OF TS IS PRESENT OVER THE LOWER LKS WHERE
VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN THE PVA AHEAD OF SHRTWV MOVING
INTO WI IS LIFTING MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MUCAPE UP TO 2000
J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH AXIS OF MUCAPE ARND 500 J/KG
EXTENDS N INTO ERN UPR MI AND THERE IS SOME OF THE DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC AND UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET MAX IN ONTARIO IN THIS
AREA AS WELL...ONLY SCT SHOWERS ARE FALLING OVER THE NE HALF OF LK
SUP/AREAS E OF GRAND MARAIS-MANISTIQUE. THE CULPRIT THAT IS
RESTRICTING GREATER SHOWER/TS COVERAGE UNDER EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLD
COVER IS VERY DRY LLVLS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB/MPX RAOBS. STRONG WSW
H925-85 WINDS UP TO 29 KTS/42 KTS THAT WERE OVER GRB AT 00Z ARE
ENHANCING THIS DRY AIR ADVCTN INTO THE CWA. LOOKING TO THE W...SKIES
ARE MOCLR OVER THE FAR WRN CWA...BUT MORE CLDS AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS
ARE PRESENT IN MN JUST AHEAD OF AND TRAILING A SFC COLD FNT THAT
EXTENDS SWWD FM THE DEEP SFC LO IN NW ONTARIO THRU MN AND INTO
NEBRASKA. THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB SHOWED A DEEP MOIST LYR FM THE SFC
THRU H3. THE 00Z H85 TEMP WAS 5C AT THE PAS MANITOBA...AND GUSTY NNW
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FNT ARE DRIVING 50-DEGREE SFC TEMPS INTO THE
NCENTRAL CONUS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND POPS EARLY THIS
MRNG OVER THE E. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO CLD/TEMPS TRENDS AND SHRA CHCS
AS COLD FNT NOW IN MN PUSHES TO THE E AND ACRS UPR MI TODAY.
EARLY THIS MRNG/TDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME UPR LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WL
LINGER OVER THE ERN CWA THRU SUNRISE...LATEST RUC FCST SHOWS
STEADILY LOWERING H85 DEWPTS AT NEWBERRY. SO SUSPECT ANY SHOWERS WL
BE E OF THAT PORTION OF THE CWA BY FCST ISSUANCE. AT THE SAME
TIME...MOISTER LLVLS AHEAD OF APRCHG SFC COLD FNT ARE FCST TO PUSH
INTO THE WRN ZNS BY 12Z. SO INCLUDED SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
W TOWARD 12Z DESPITE AN ABSENCE OF SGNFT DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THESE
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS WILL THEN SPREAD E WITH THE COLD FNT...WHICH IS
FCST TO REACH THE FAR ERN CWA IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DEEP
LYR QVECTOR DVGC FCST OVER THE ERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN...THE GREAT
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS GENERATE MORE PCPN IN THIS AREA THIS AFTN...
WHEN ARRIVAL OF SFC COLD FNT WL BE IN BETTER SYNC WITH SOME DAYTIME
HEATING AND PERHAPS SOME ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH CNVGC
OF LK BREEZES OFF LK MI AND SUP. IN FACT... FCST SDNGS SHOW FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LYR MOISTENING SIMILAR TO WHAT IS SHOWN ON THE 00Z
BISMARCK RAOB. SO MAINTAINED HIER FCST POPS IN THIS AREA. BUT SINCE
THE FCST LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE IN THE ABSENCE OF
DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WL INCLUDE ONLY A SCHC FOR TS. A GOOD DEAL OF LO
CLD WL LINGER OVER THE CWA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FNT...
AND THE COMBINATION OF THE CLD COVER AND CAD BEHIND THE BNDRY MAY
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL THIS AFTN...AT LEAST OVER THE FAR W WHERE THE W
WINDS WL UPSLOPE OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP.
TNGT...ANOTHER SHRTWV NOW OVER NE MANITOBA THAT IS ROTATING ARND THE
CLOSED LO IS FCST TO APRCH THE WRN CWA LATE TODAY AND THEN SWING
ACRS THE CWA TNGT...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME PVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC.
THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD SUSTAIN DEEPER MSTR/AT LEAST
SCT SHOWERS WITHIN LINGERING LLVL MOIST CYC FLOW DESPITE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THE BEST CHC FOR THESE SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE SE IN
THE EVNG. UPSLOPE W WIND WL KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING OVER THE W THRU
MUCH OF THE NGT EVEN AFTER NVA/DRYING ALF ARRIVE FOLLOWING THE
SHRTWV PASSAGE LATE. WITH WSHFT TO THE NW OFF THE COOL LK SUP WATERS
AND H85 TEMPS FALLING AS LO AS 2C OVER THE W TOWARD 12Z...EXPECTING
A MUCH COOLER NGT WITH LO TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S OVER MOST OF
THE NRN TIER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A GENERALLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...PROVIDING A NICE START TO THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.
THE UPPER TROUGH PRODUCING THE THE LOW CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...LEADING TO THE AREA
COMING UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS STATES TODAY AND EXTEND A SURFACE RIDGE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THUS...AFTER A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY (WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT) WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE
ON THE DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A FASTER TREND TO THE
DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS THAT WAS STARTED WITH MODEL RUNS 24HRS
AGO...SO HAVE MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED SUNSHINE MAY TRY TO OFFSET THE COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT STILL THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S (WITH A FEW 70S OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNDER DOWNSLOPING FLOW). NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...THE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY KEEP SHORELINE TEMPERATURES COOLER AND IN THE 50S.
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE IN
CONTROL AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BEFORE REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (ALTHOUGH GRADUALLY WARMING TOWARDS NORMAL BY
SATURDAY). THERE ARE A COUPLE OF ITEMS TO NOTE. FIRST...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE VERY COOL OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...PWAT VALUES AROUND 35-40 PERCENT OF NORMAL
AND CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME OF THE WEST COLD SPOTS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 30S. THE OTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE...THINK THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR (AND CAPPING ABOUT 650-600MB) FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR BUT
WILL SHOW SOME CLOUDS DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.
THE NEXT WAVE TO WATCH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
THINK PRECIP SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR ANY 4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES...ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS FEATURE TRACKS HEADING
INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE GENERAL IDEA OF IT STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WILL
GRADUALLY RAMP POPS UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND
THEN A WARM FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN
CENTRAL CANADA). SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD PRODUCE
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
AREA OF LLVL MSTR IN CYC W FLOW TO THE S OF DEEP LO PRES IN NW
ONTARIO WL BRING PLENTY OF LO CLDS TO THE TAF SITES TODAY. SINCE THE
PRES GRADIENT WL BE SHARP...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE W WIND AT SAW AND
MORE DAYTIME HEATING AT THAT LOCATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR PREDOMINANT
VFR CONDITIONS EVEN THOUGH CIGS MAY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE UNDER
-SHRA THAT MAY IMPACT THAT SITE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVNG. WITH AN
UPSLOPE W WIND...MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX...EVEN
THOUGH LK STABILIZATION MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF VFR WX AT CMX THIS
AFTN. THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/LINGERING MSTR IN THE
PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING TNGT WL BRING A RETURN OF PREDOMINANT
MVFR CIGS TO ALL THE TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25KTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY...WITH THE MARINE LAYER HELPING TO KEEP WINDS IN CHECK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND GENERALLY UNDER 20KTS.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
PRODUCE WINDS BELOW 15KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST THIS WEEKEND...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BUT THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
FINALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
702 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THE STACKED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL FINALLY MAKE EASTWARD
PROGRESS TODAY. WHILE IT DOES SO...A LOBE OF COOL AND MOIST AIR WILL
ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HRRR AND HOPWRF ARE
RATHER CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A BAND OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
PUSHING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED...LESS ORGANIZED
AND LESS INTENSE ACTIVITY BEHIND IT. THERE IS SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT NOT TOO MUCH TO GENERATE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
WITH THE LEADING BAND. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE IN...TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING FOR A CHILLY DAY BY
FIRST OF JULY STANDARDS.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING WITH A QUICK WEAKENING
OF SHOWERS FOLLOWING SUNSET. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
SHROUDED IN CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO
LOW...BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY STILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS CENTRAL
MN. THE RECORD LOW AT MSP IS 49 AND THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR
LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
LONGER TERM TRENDS INCLUDE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. ALONG
WITH THE WARMER AIR WILL COME AN INCREASING THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
SPRINKLES LINGERING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP
AS WELL. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM TO THE
70 MARK MOST PLACES.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE MOST OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK THROUGH THE 70S...BUT REMAINING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO
BRING IN HIGHER HEIGHTS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EAST COAST TROPICAL
SYSTEM...AND LIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE 80S MOST AREAS. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FRIDAY...THEN POSSIBLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS BEEN SENDING A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR.
THE 00Z ECMWF HAS LIFTED THE ACTIVITY MAINLY NORTH INTO SATURDAY.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO LET THE MODELS MERGE TO SOME CONCLUSION.
WONT TIME ANYTHING INTO THE WEEKEND FOR NOW...BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY FILLING IN OVER MN THIS MORNING AS A
DISTURBANCE ROTATES IN FROM NORTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS ARE ALSO
ACCOMPANYING IT WITH VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED TO IFR LEVELS AT
TIMES IN MDT TO HVY RAIN. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN
TODAY...BUT OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE AND BEHIND IT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND
SUNSET...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.
SOME CLEARING IS FORECAST AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR WEDNESDAY.
KMSP...LOW CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING THE TERMINAL...BUT THERE ARE
PATCHES OF VFR CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY TO THE DAKOTA BORDER. THINK
THESE CIGS WILL FILL IN THIS MORNING SO WENT MORE ON THE PESSIMISTIC
SIDE. BEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE MIDDAY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE...AND VEER SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS S-SE 5-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
604 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
OCCASIONAL GAP WIND INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
AREAS MVFR CIGS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS VALLEY THROUGH
18Z THEN REDEVELOPING AFT 02/03Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING
AND PUSHING IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO SPARK MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AFT 18Z. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
40 KT AND BRIEF TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TO THE WEATHER PATTERN IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY
AS A STOUT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT RACES WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT ONLY BRINGING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO A HEALTHY DOSE OF INCREASED MOISTURE.
GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...MOST NOTABLY
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THROUGH GAPS
AND CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NEW MEXICO. OF
MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD WHERE SOME
STRONG AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA BORDER WITH ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MUCH OF NEW MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE STATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH
EACH SUBSEQUENT DAY WILL LIKELY SEE FEWER STORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE CENTROID OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AZ...LEAVING THE WESTERLIES DISPLACED FROM THE
GREATER SOUTHWEST REGION. STORMS IN SE CO...SW KS...NW OK...AND NW
TX HURLED OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT RACED INTO EASTERN AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL NM. THIS BOUNDARY PRECEDED THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
WHICH IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND WEST...AND LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
JUST ENTERED TAOS...LAS VEGAS...AND CLINES CORNERS AS OF 3 AM.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...INDUCING A GUSTY CANYON/GAP WIND IN MANY FAVORED CENTRAL
AREAS WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW
DAYS...THIS WILL INITIATE AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND TO SOME EXTENT THURSDAY. BOUNDARY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WILL RUN OUT OF MOMENTUM NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE IT COULD BE AN INITIATION POINT FOR
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON EASTERN/UPSLOPE FACES. SOME UPSLOPE WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN FACES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TODAY.
ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF...MORE
INTO THE EVENING...OVER THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS
OF NM AND INTO WEST TX WHERE A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE SETTING UP
AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE ABOVE. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS ON THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO EXTEND
OVER PORTIONS OF CHAVES COUNTY TO ROOSEVELT COUNTY BEFORE
EXTENDING FARTHER EAST INTO TX...HOWEVER THE LOCAL WRF CARRIES
THIS CONVERGENCE FARTHER SOUTH WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT NORTHWARD
CLOSER TO I-40. THE AXIS OF DILITATION FOR THE DEFORMATION ZONE
WOULD BE NEAR THIS LINE WITH BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALSO
ALIGNING NEAR. HAVE PAINTED SOME LIKELY POPS IN THIS SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FORCING
TONIGHT...AND THIS AREA COULD BE ONE OF CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. STORM MOTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM NW TO SE TODAY WITH
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...BUT SOME TRAINING CELLS AND LINEAR
STRUCTURE MAY INTRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE DEFORMATION ZONE
TONGIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL PICK UP SOME MORE STEAM TONIGHT...ADVANCING TOWARD
THE AZ BORDER...AND CONSEQUENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WESTERN ZONES WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY WILL BE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BOTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM...BUT INTO
THE EVENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND GENERAL STORM
PROPAGATIONS TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY ALLOW MANY ADJACENT AREAS TO
SEE RAINFALL TOO. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH MORE IN THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER MORE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
INTO THURSDAY THE SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE THE UPPER HIGH ORBITS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR RECYCLING
THURSDAY...AND MODELS ARE MAKING QUICK USE OF IT WITH MANY ZONES
LIKELY SEEING SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR A DAY-BY-
DAY DRYING AND LESS TO RECYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING AT ARM`S
LENGTH OF NM INTO THE LONG WEEKEND.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE STEERING FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR IDEAL
FOR A TRADITIONAL NORTH-SOUTH FLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NOR FOR
A TRANSIENT SUBTROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE AND STRONG
HEAT FLUX FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA SEEM TO
BE PRIMED TO FUEL NM WITH PLENTY OF MONSOON FUEL ONCE THE STEERING
FLOW ALLOWS.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TRANSITION TO A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT HAS BEGUN FOR EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD MAY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REACH THAT FAR WEST.
A GUSTY EASTERLY WIND INTO THE RGV REMAINS ANTICIPATED FOR AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP
IN THE TYPICAL FASHION. PRESSURE RISES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THE STRONGER
RISES HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
OKLAHOMA AND THE TX PANHANDLE...ALTHOUGH A SECONDARY PUSH WAS ALSO
NOTED OVER SE CO. LATEST RUC SUPPORTS THE WIND DEVELOPMENT AND
TIMING SO EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO INVADE CENTRAL
NM...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE WIND SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER
MIDDAY WITH MIXING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...PUSHING HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE CONTDVD AND PERHAPS
BEYOND.
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 TODAY...AS WELL AS THE NORTH CENTRAL. STEERING FLOW
WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH. DRIER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE RELEGATED TO AREAS WEST OF THE RGV TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE WEST BUT FALL
BELOW AVERAGE EAST. SUB 15 PERCENT MIN RH VALUES WILL BE FOUND ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CRATER IN THE EAST BUT
OVERALL VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD OR BETTER ALL AREAS.
RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST AREAS EXCEPT
THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER. MIN RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY WILL TREND UPWARD AS BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFT
TO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. CELL MOTION WILL BE TO
THE SOUTH BUT RATHER SLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
TO BELOW AVERAGE...CONSEQUENTLY VENTILATION WILL BE REDUCED FOR SOME
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISH EAST THURSDAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS CENTRAL AND WEST. VENTILATION MAY BE FAIR TO EVEN
POOR OVER THE RGV...WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER
WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE MODELS INDICATE IT
WILL BE PARKED INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO LOWER
DAYTIME HUMIDITIES NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL...WITH MORE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT. HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO. WHILE OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES LOOK TO REMAIN GOOD...LATE DAY HUMIDITIES WILL BEGIN TO
FALL BACK INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
903 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM A HUDSON BAY LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GRADIENT FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL ALSO GENERATE BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AREAWIDE TODAY. THE WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.
ONLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW FINALLY EXITS INTO
EASTERN CANADA...SHOWERS ENDING AND SKIES CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. DID
REMOVE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG EXCEPT FOR FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE THERE WERE STILL SOME RESTRICTIONS
TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER WESTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LAST
SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND IS CURRENTLY WORKING
THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD 12Z...AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z
TODAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LOCATED OVER CROSBY. BASED ON THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS
LOOP AND SHORTWAVE POSITION...CONCUR WITH THE LATEST HRRR
SKY/CEILING AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST...THAT THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. SHOULD MENTION
THAT THESE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...THE HRRR AND WRF...TRY TO
REDEVELOP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN MONTANA AND NEAR OUR WESTERN
BORDER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE
LIMITING THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE CUMULUS FIELD...FELT THE AREAL
COVERAGE WOULD BE VERY MINIMAL FOR ANY MENTION OF MEASURABLE POPS AT
THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN ADJUST AND ADD SOMETHING IF THIS AREA
GROWS LARGER THAN ANTICIPATED. FARTHER EAST...THE SHOWERS
COMPLETELY EXIT THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 22Z. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 10 MPH TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE THE 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH/COLD POCKET OVERHEAD TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WHERE CLOUDS/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON...TO AROUND 70 IN THE WEST WHERE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL EMERGE. FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT
WINDS AND A CLEARING SKY WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
NORMAL LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. RECORD LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S...BUT NOT EXPECTING TO GET THAT COLD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WEDNESDAY ON A QUIET NOTE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 80S.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP WITH TRANSIENT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO RISE UNDER
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MID TO UPPER 80S) OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. OVERALL IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM WEEKEND...AND
ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT
THE MAJORITY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
MVFR CIGS WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CIGS LIFTING TO VFR AT KISN
BY 13Z...KDIK/KMOT BY 15Z...KBIS AROUND 17Z...AND KJMS BY 22Z
TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20KT TO 30KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10KT BY 02Z
WEDNESDAY. PATCHY FOG/VCFG HAS BEEN ADDED AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AT
KISN/KBIS/KJMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
HEAVY RAINS FELL OVER THE SOURIS BASIN THIS PAST WEEKEND.
BOTH ALAMEDA DAM AND LAKE DARLING WILL BE STORING A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY THESE STORMS WHILE STILL KEEPING
SOME STORAGE AVAILABLE FOR FUTURE RAINFALL EVENTS. HOWEVER WITH
THE RECENT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN IN
CANADA...RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM WILL INCREASE OVER THE COMING
DAYS AND THUS INCREASING THE RELEASES DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE DARLING.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE SOURIS RIVER TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...JV/JJS/KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
640 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW FINALLY EXITS INTO
EASTERN CANADA...SHOWERS ENDING AND SKIES CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. DID
REMOVE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG EXCEPT FOR FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE THERE WERE STILL SOME RESTRICTIONS
TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER WESTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LAST
SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND IS CURRENTLY WORKING
THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD 12Z...AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z
TODAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LOCATED OVER CROSBY. BASED ON THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS
LOOP AND SHORTWAVE POSITION...CONCUR WITH THE LATEST HRRR
SKY/CEILING AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST...THAT THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. SHOULD MENTION
THAT THESE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...THE HRRR AND WRF...TRY TO
REDEVELOP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN MONTANA AND NEAR OUR WESTERN
BORDER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE
LIMITING THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE CUMULUS FIELD...FELT THE AREAL
COVERAGE WOULD BE VERY MINIMAL FOR ANY MENTION OF MEASURABLE POPS AT
THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN ADJUST AND ADD SOMETHING IF THIS AREA
GROWS LARGER THAN ANTICIPATED. FARTHER EAST...THE SHOWERS
COMPLETELY EXIT THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 22Z. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 10 MPH TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE THE 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH/COLD POCKET OVERHEAD TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WHERE CLOUDS/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON...TO AROUND 70 IN THE WEST WHERE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL EMERGE. FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT
WINDS AND A CLEARING SKY WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
NORMAL LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. RECORD LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S...BUT NOT EXPECTING TO GET THAT COLD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WEDNESDAY ON A QUIET NOTE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 80S.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP WITH TRANSIENT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO RISE UNDER
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MID TO UPPER 80S) OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. OVERALL IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM WEEKEND...AND
ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT
THE MAJORITY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
MVFR CIGS WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CIGS LIFTING TO VFR AT KISN
BY 13Z...KDIK/KMOT BY 15Z...KBIS AROUND 17Z...AND KJMS BY 22Z
TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20KT TO 30KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10KT BY 02Z
WEDNESDAY. PATCHY FOG/VCFG HAS BEEN ADDED AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AT
KISN/KBIS/KJMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
HEAVY RAINS FELL OVER THE SOURIS BASIN THIS PAST WEEKEND.
BOTH ALAMEDA DAM AND LAKE DARLING WILL BE STORING A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY THESE STORMS WHILE STILL KEEPING
SOME STORAGE AVAILABLE FOR FUTURE RAINFALL EVENTS. HOWEVER WITH
THE RECENT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN IN
CANADA...RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM WILL INCREASE OVER THE COMING
DAYS AND THUS INCREASING THE RELEASES DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE DARLING.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE SOURIS RIVER TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...JV/JJS/KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
657 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING KLBB BUT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE AIRPORT WHILE A SECOND AREA OF STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS KCDS
AND IMPACT THEM IN THE NEXT HOUR. EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE A LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT
AT BOTH TERMINALS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR WILL DEVELOP WHEN STORMS ARE MOVING OVER THE AIRPORT.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...
COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT...
MASKED BY OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...
GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PUSHING SOUTH AT A GOOD CLIP AND WILL BE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE WHILE IT APPEARS IN THE 3 AM CDT
SURFACE ANALYSIS THAT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS STILL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE SLOW SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING AND BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE SOUTH AT 850
HPA AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE KLBB 88D VWP
AND VELOCITY PRODUCTS WITH AROUND 50 KTS 200-300 FT AGL. THE RIDGE
HAS SLID BACK TO THE WEST AS SHOWN AT 500 HPA WITH RATHER WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW AT 250 HPA. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BUT HAVE POOR PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...EVEN THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS. THIS POSES SOME
PROBLEMS FOR HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD TODAY AND THE MODELS REFLECT
THIS WITH QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF WHEN
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP. THE NAM HAS A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST
AREA BY 21Z WHILE THE RUC AND SOME EXTENT THE GFS HOLD OFF UNTIL
CLOSER TO 00Z. SURPRISINGLY...THE TTU WRF KEEPS LITTLE TO NO
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND MOST OF THE OF
THE EVENING BEFORE BREAKING OUT STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY WITH AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE
BUT WITH A VERY WEAK SHEAR PROFILE. THERE IS SOME TURNING OF WIND
DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT SO A FEW STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE AND
PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE TOO SPOTTY TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL PLACE A MENTION IN THE
HWO...MAINLY FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS.
ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE VERY MOIST WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA SO SOME WET MICROBURSTS COULD ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
ALL THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST WAS PRETTY MUCH IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAD TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS THIS
MORNING TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND
THEN INCREASING THEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE CHANCE RANGE.
NORTHERN COUNTIES WERE PRETTY MUCH LEFT UNCHANGED SINCE THEY WERE
ALREADY IN THE LIKELY RANGE AND WERE SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED WELL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN
EARLY IN THE DAY WHILE HIGH CLOUD COVER LIMITS INSOLATION IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HANG ON TO LOW 90S FOR NOW ACROSS THAT REGION WHILE
RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS HOLDS TEMPS
DOWN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT
BUT COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS DUE AGAIN TO
RAIN-COOLED AIR AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
UNSETTLED CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ALREADY IN PLACE WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE AND RISING HEIGHTS BY THURSDAY
AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO OUR WEST BEGINS FLEXING ITS MUSCLES.
THEREAFTER THIS HIGH AND ITS ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS ARE PROGGED TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND SUBJECT OUR AREA TO SEASONABLE TEMPS
UNDER A DRY NELY FLOW REGIME.
GREATEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SORTING OUT CONVECTIVE DETAILS WED
AND THU AS MULTIPLE BOUTS OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR AT SOME POINTS
THROUGHOUT THIS TIMEFRAME. TODAY/S COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR
THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED UNTIL IT
LIFTS NORTH ON THURSDAY AND BEGINS DIFFUSING IN THE PROCESS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SHARPEST VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
SUBSEQUENT DEEPER OMEGA ON WEDNESDAY...SO WE/LL KEEP HIGH CHANCE
POPS AREA WIDE BEFORE TAPERING THESE BACK WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONTINUED WEAK STEERING WINDS ALONG WITH RICH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2
INCHES FAVOR HEAVY RAIN AS OUR BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE DAYS
AHEAD...SO THE HWO WILL BE REVISITED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.
EVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE QUITE NOISY WITH CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WE/LL AVOID READING TOO MUCH
INTO SPECIFIC QPF BULLSEYES THIS FAR OUT AND INSTEAD WAIT FOR THE
FINER AND MORE USEFUL DETAILS TO HOPEFULLY EMERGE IN THE TIME
AHEAD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 78 61 80 62 86 / 60 70 50 30 20
TULIA 80 62 79 62 85 / 60 70 50 40 20
PLAINVIEW 82 63 80 62 86 / 50 60 50 40 20
LEVELLAND 86 65 84 63 89 / 50 60 50 30 20
LUBBOCK 87 65 83 64 88 / 50 60 50 40 20
DENVER CITY 88 66 86 65 90 / 40 50 50 30 20
BROWNFIELD 88 67 85 64 90 / 40 50 50 30 20
CHILDRESS 87 67 82 65 87 / 50 60 50 40 30
SPUR 88 68 85 68 89 / 40 50 50 40 20
ASPERMONT 93 71 88 68 90 / 30 50 50 30 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/93/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
956 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL
NORTH OF A COASTAL TROPICAL STORM ALSO INCREASES. DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT BY THE START OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THAT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST
TROUGH WEST VIRGINIA...HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THEY ENTER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOCAL WRF-ARW...AND
TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER EXTENT...THE HRRR BOTH SHOWED THIS
TREND...AND ITS OUTPUT CURRENTLY IS ON TRACK. WILL GIVE INCREASED
WEIGHT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE NEXT THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST
WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH THE CONVECTION TRENDING
EASTWARD AS NEW DEVELOPMENT INITIATES ON THE OUTFLOW OF THE PARENT
STORMS.
SPC HAS EXPANDED EASTWARD ITS EXTENT OF THE DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN BEING DAMAGING WINDS
WITH HAIL A NEARLY AS LIKELY SECONDARY POTENTIAL. THE SLIGHT RISK
REGION NOW COVERAGE ALL OF OUR WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND THOSE
VIRGINIA COUNTIES ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 460.
AS OF 705 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FORECAST KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOW THIS
MORNING...THOUGH WATCHING A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION HEADING
SOUTH OF CRW. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW THIS WEAKENING GOING INTO SE WV
THIS MORNING SO LEFT ISOLATED THREAT THERE. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 330 AM...
HAVE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN HIGHER THETA-E ZONE PER LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM THE TRIAD INTO THE VA FOOTHILLS. MODELS KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA THRU THE MORNING. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THOUGH WEAK IS ALSO PICKED UP ON THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE SHIFTING EAST TO THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE.
THE 00Z GFS AND 04Z HRRR SHOWING A MORE REALISTIC VIEW...WITH ECMWF
NOT TOO BAD EITHER. TODAY WILL BE VERY WARM...AND APPEARS THREAT OF
STORMS IS MINIMAL...GIVEN CAP IN PLACE. MODELS BREAK THE CAP BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER THETA-E AND LOW L CONVERGENCE SETTING
UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OF VA. OVERALL KEPT POPS ISOLATED IN MOST
LOCALES WITH SCATTERED/30 POPS IN THE FLOYD/ROANOKE/NRV AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOST LOCATION STAY RAINFREE. ANY STORMS
TODAY WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AGAIN AND WITH PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE...HEAVY RAINERS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES...BUT AGAIN VERY ISOLATED SO NO WATCH WARRANTED. STORM MOTION
PER MODELS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
WATCHING UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES. MODELS SHOW
WEAKENING THIS MORNING AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO WRN OHIO AND SRN
INDIANA. MODELS THEN FIRE CONVECTION UP AGAIN FROM WRN PA SOUTHWEST
TO SRN OHIO/NRN KY BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SLOW IT DOWN AND FADE IT
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT TO OUR NW. AT LEAST WILL KEEP/HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE WV MTNS INTO PORTIONS OF SW VA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...PER LOW LVL THETA-E RIDGING INCREASING AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE LATE.
AS FOR TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HOT...AS THINK SUNSHINE WILL BE ABUNDANT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR GOOD HEATING. THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AGAIN WILL
HELP PREVENT TEMPS FROM SOARING TOO FAR WHILE WINDS STAY MORE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WEST/MTNS...TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT TO REMAIN MUGGY AS TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
MTNS TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO APPROACH THE APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
KICKING OUT THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS WESTERN SLOPES OF
APPALACHIANS BY LATE IN THE DAY. NO DISTINCT SFC FEATURES ALTHOUGH A
WEAK LEE TROUGH IS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON. NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THIS FAR NORTH OF WHERE TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BE BY LATE WED...STILL OFF COAST NEAR
SAVANNAH. VERY WARM LOWER LEVELS...INCREASING DEW PTS INTO LOWER
70S...RESULTS IN SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WHILE LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT ESPECIALLY STEEP...THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MODERATE SHEAR AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AS WELL AS
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR...SHOULD STILL RESULT IN A RISK OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING PRIMARY THREAT.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN WEST CLOSER TO THIS UPPER WAVE AND WHERE
BETTER MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS...BUT WITH WEAK LEE TROUGH POSSIBLE AND HOT
TEMPERATURES...EAST OF BLUE RIDGE LIKELY TO GET INTO THE GAME AT
SOME POINT...MAY BE MORE IN THE EVENING THERE. SPC HAS UPGRADED TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS WELL. IF TEMPS
REACH MID 80S WEST AND MID 90S EAST...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM UPPER 80S WEST TO THE 100-105 RANGE EAST. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT QUICKLY DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FROM WHAT IS IN CURRENT FCST...BUT THIS WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY IN THE WEST. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A HEAT ADV HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT IF THESE FCST HIGHS OF LOWER TO MID
90S ARE REALIZED...BUT RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE SMALL AREAS FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
BY THURSDAY...SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN SECOND EJECTING SHORT WAVE FROM
MIDWEST TROUGH AND PROBABLE TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVING NORTHEAST
UP CAROLINA COAST...MAY HELP WRING OUT MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.
WHILE TROPICAL STORM ITSELF DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO GIVE US DIRECT
IMPACT BASED ON CURRENT CONSENSUS TRACKS...THE ADVECTION OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COULD
PRODUCE ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND
FACT THAT MODELS NOT PRODUCING ESPECIALLY HIGH PRECIP AMTS OVER OUR
REGION MAKES ANY NEED FOR FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE CLOSELY WATCHED OVER NEXT 48
HRS. MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD OVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND
THUS INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL A LITTLE LESS
THURSDAY...BUT AS MENTIONED THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN WED.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY LIFTING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
QUICKLY NORTHEAST OFF NC COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE BLACKSBURG CWA...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
WATCH THE PIEDMONT AREAS FOR LINGERING HEAVY RAINFALL...AT LEAST
INTO THE EVENING. MODERATELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS POINT DESPITE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST...SOUTH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ACCORDING TO CONSENSUS OF CURRENT MODELS...BUT
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THAT TO BE REFINED. THE OTHER WEATHER STORY
WILL THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS COULD DROP AS LOW AS THE UPPER
40S IN OUR FAR NW BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA
WHICH WILL BE A PLEASANT CHANGE FOR THE HUMIDITY AVERSE OUT THERE.
DAYTIME HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BOTH SAT/SUN. WONT LAST TOO LONG AS IT IS JULY AND
RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FOG/LOW CIGS THIS MORNING AT BCB/LWB WILL ERODE TO SCATTERED OR
BKN VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING. NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION SOUTH
OF CRW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT HEADS EAST TOWARD LWB/BLF...PER
HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS...THOUGH ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR BLF FOR MVFR
FROM 13-14Z.
WILL SEE SCT-BKN CU OFF AND ON THROUGH THE DAY WITH CIRRUS ALOFT
DUE TO BLOWOFF FROM UPSTREAM STORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA DOES NOT LOOK STRONG TODAY BUT MODELS
OVERALL PAINTING SOME NEAR BCB/ROA IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE VCSH
FOR NOW THERE. THUNDER HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE FAR WEST...THOUGH
LACK OF WEDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE THUNDER IN THE AREA TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. MODELS SHOW THE COLD
FRONT SLOWING DOWN ALONG THE PIEDMONT DUE TO A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BOOT THE COLD FRONT AND TROPICAL LOW AWAY TO BRING A
DRIER AIR MASS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW/SK
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...RCS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
743 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL
NORTH OF A COASTAL TROPICAL STORM ALSO INCREASES. DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT BY THE START OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 705 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FORECAST KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOW THIS
MORNING...THOUGH WATCHING A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION HEADING
SOUTH OF CRW. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW THIS WEAKENING GOING INTO SE WV
THIS MORNING SO LEFT ISOLATED THREAT THERE. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 330 AM...
HAVE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN HIGHER THETA-E ZONE PER LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM THE TRIAD INTO THE VA FOOTHILLS. MODELS KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA THRU THE MORNING. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THOUGH WEAK IS ALSO PICKED UP ON THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE SHIFTING EAST TO THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE.
THE 00Z GFS AND 04Z HRRR SHOWING A MORE REALISTIC VIEW...WITH ECMWF
NOT TOO BAD EITHER. TODAY WILL BE VERY WARM...AND APPEARS THREAT OF
STORMS IS MINIMAL...GIVEN CAP IN PLACE. MODELS BREAK THE CAP BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER THETA-E AND LOW L CONVERGENCE SETTING
UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OF VA. OVERALL KEPT POPS ISOLATED IN MOST
LOCALES WITH SCATTERED/30 POPS IN THE FLOYD/ROANOKE/NRV AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOST LOCATION STAY RAINFREE. ANY STORMS
TODAY WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AGAIN AND WITH PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE...HEAVY RAINERS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES...BUT AGAIN VERY ISOLATED SO NO WATCH WARRANTED. STORM MOTION
PER MODELS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
WATCHING UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES. MODELS SHOW
WEAKENING THIS MORNING AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO WRN OHIO AND SRN
INDIANA. MODELS THEN FIRE CONVECTION UP AGAIN FROM WRN PA SOUTHWEST
TO SRN OHIO/NRN KY BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SLOW IT DOWN AND FADE IT
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT TO OUR NW. AT LEAST WILL KEEP/HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE WV MTNS INTO PORTIONS OF SW VA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...PER LOW LVL THETA-E RIDGING INCREASING AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE LATE.
AS FOR TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HOT...AS THINK SUNSHINE WILL BE ABUNDANT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR GOOD HEATING. THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AGAIN WILL
HELP PREVENT TEMPS FROM SOARING TOO FAR WHILE WINDS STAY MORE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WEST/MTNS...TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT TO REMAIN MUGGY AS TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
MTNS TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO APPROACH THE APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
KICKING OUT THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS WESTERN SLOPES OF
APPALACHIANS BY LATE IN THE DAY. NO DISTINCT SFC FEATURES ALTHOUGH A
WEAK LEE TROUGH IS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON. NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THIS FAR NORTH OF WHERE TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BE BY LATE WED...STILL OFF COAST NEAR
SAVANNAH. VERY WARM LOWER LEVELS...INCREASING DEW PTS INTO LOWER
70S...RESULTS IN SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WHILE LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT ESPECIALLY STEEP...THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MODERATE SHEAR AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AS WELL AS
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR...SHOULD STILL RESULT IN A RISK OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING PRIMARY THREAT.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN WEST CLOSER TO THIS UPPER WAVE AND WHERE
BETTER MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS...BUT WITH WEAK LEE TROUGH POSSIBLE AND HOT
TEMPERATURES...EAST OF BLUE RIDGE LIKELY TO GET INTO THE GAME AT
SOME POINT...MAY BE MORE IN THE EVENING THERE. SPC HAS UPGRADED TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS WELL. IF TEMPS
REACH MID 80S WEST AND MID 90S EAST...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM UPPER 80S WEST TO THE 100-105 RANGE EAST. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT QUICKLY DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FROM WHAT IS IN CURRENT FCST...BUT THIS WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY IN THE WEST. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A HEAT ADV HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT IF THESE FCST HIGHS OF LOWER TO MID
90S ARE REALIZED...BUT RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE SMALL AREAS FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
BY THURSDAY...SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN SECOND EJECTING SHORT WAVE FROM
MIDWEST TROUGH AND PROBABLE TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVING NORTHEAST
UP CAROLINA COAST...MAY HELP WRING OUT MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.
WHILE TROPICAL STORM ITSELF DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO GIVE US DIRECT
IMPACT BASED ON CURRENT CONSENSUS TRACKS...THE ADVECTION OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COULD
PRODUCE ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND
FACT THAT MODELS NOT PRODUCING ESPECIALLY HIGH PRECIP AMTS OVER OUR
REGION MAKES ANY NEED FOR FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE CLOSELY WATCHED OVER NEXT 48
HRS. MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD OVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND
THUS INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL A LITTLE LESS
THURSDAY...BUT AS MENTIONED THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN WED.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY LIFTING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
QUICKLY NORTHEAST OFF NC COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE BLACKSBURG CWA...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
WATCH THE PIEDMONT AREAS FOR LINGERING HEAVY RAINFALL...AT LEAST
INTO THE EVENING. MODERATELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS POINT DESPITE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST...SOUTH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ACCORDING TO CONSENSUS OF CURRENT MODELS...BUT
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THAT TO BE REFINED. THE OTHER WEATHER STORY
WILL THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS COULD DROP AS LOW AS THE UPPER
40S IN OUR FAR NW BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA
WHICH WILL BE A PLEASANT CHANGE FOR THE HUMIDITY AVERSE OUT THERE.
DAYTIME HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BOTH SAT/SUN. WONT LAST TOO LONG AS IT IS JULY AND
RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FOG/LOW CIGS THIS MORNING AT BCB/LWB WILL ERODE TO SCATTERED OR
BKN VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING. NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION SOUTH
OF CRW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT HEADS EAST TOWARD LWB/BLF...PER
HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS...THOUGH ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR BLF FOR MVFR
FROM 13-14Z.
WILL SEE SCT-BKN CU OFF AND ON THROUGH THE DAY WITH CIRRUS ALOFT
DUE TO BLOWOFF FROM UPSTREAM STORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA DOES NOT LOOK STRONG TODAY BUT MODELS
OVERALL PAINTING SOME NEAR BCB/ROA IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE VCSH
FOR NOW THERE. THUNDER HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE FAR WEST...THOUGH
LACK OF WEDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE THUNDER IN THE AREA TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. MODELS SHOW THE COLD
FRONT SLOWING DOWN ALONG THE PIEDMONT DUE TO A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BOOT THE COLD FRONT AND TROPICAL LOW AWAY TO BRING A
DRIER AIR MASS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW/SK
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...RCS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING MAINLY MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS GREATLY INCREASING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...
EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS SE AZ. 01/19Z RUC HRRR DEPICTED THE ONGOING
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY ABOUT 02/00Z. HOWEVER...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WERE PROGGED TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS ERN COCHISE COUNTY INTO THIS EVENING. THE RUC HRRR CONTINUED
TO DEPICT WEAK PRECIP ECHOES TO CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THAT DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS GRAHAM/GREENLEE COUNTIES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY THEN LINGER LATE
TONIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
VARIOUS 01/12Z NWP MODELS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS IN DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE AZ WED...AND
ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT INTO THUR. BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS...HAVE
INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT DURING THE WED AFTERNOON-THUR PERIOD. HAVE
OPTED FOR CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS BY WED EVENING FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE WED INTO THUR...MAINLY
EAST OF TUCSON.
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THUR IN RESPONSE
TO THE ANTICIPATED MOISTURE SURGE WED NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
SCENARIO OF AREAS OF BLOWING DUST THUR AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM TUCSON
WWD/NWWD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI SHOULD BE HIGHER VERSUS THUR...THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE HIGHER THUR IN RESPONSE TO A SOMEWHAT
DRIER NEAR-SURFACE REGIME.
THEREAFTER...01/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH MAINTAINING AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE WRN CONUS INTO THE
SRN CONUS PLAINS SAT-TUE. THE COMBINATION OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
ELY WAVES AS DEPICTED VIA THE GFS/ECMWF WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FAVORED LOCALES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS ERN SECTIONS.
HIGH TEMPS WED SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME MINOR COOLING WILL THEN OCCUR THUR FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS FRI-TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED -TSRA THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA WILL THEN OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FROM KTUS EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 KTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST TSRA. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THICKER CLOUDS MOSTLY AT 8-15K FT AGL
TO BE EAST OF KTUS. SURFACE WINDS THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE SW-NW 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS. THE
STRONGEST WIND WILL BE IN THE SAFFORD VALLEY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GRAHAM...GREENLEE...AND
COCHISE COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON. THEREAFTER...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
917 AM PDT Tue Jul 1 2014
.Synopsis...
Hot temperatures today, though a little cooler than Monday, with a cooling
trend to near normal levels after mid-week. Dry weather expected
except a slight chance of thunderstorms over the northern
mountains and in the Sierra today and Wednesday.
&&
.Discussion...
The weak upper low off the coast is moving into northern
California and will track into Oregon by tonight. The upper ridge
which has brought heat to the area is shifting east. Temperatures
in Delta have already cooled quite a bit due to marine flow, with
current temperatures 8-14 degrees lower. Temperatures in the
northern Valley have cooled some as well, though not as much, and
triple digit highs are still expected there this afternoon. The
mountains are actually seeing some higher temperatures, though
this will change starting later this afternoon as the cooler
airmass moves through. The marine layer continues to deepen and
expect a relatively strong Delta breeze by this evening.
Instability with the low and daytime heating will touch off a few
isolated thunderstorms in the mountains. HRRR and WRF mesoscale
models show that the trend of convection with very limited
precipitation continues, with most activity north and west of our
forecast area in the Coastal Mountains and east of the Sierra
crest. The best potential for dry lightning activity continues to
be over the northern Coastal Mountains and a red flag warming is
in effect there through the early evening.
Only change to forecast is to expand are of isolated thunderstorms
a little westward around the Lassen Park/western Plumas County
area.
A few lingering showers/thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over
the Coastal Mountains. Activity over the Sierra should be over,
with storms shifting well to the east.
Strong east-west oriented ridge forecast to develop early next
week for a return to relatively hot weather. EK
&&
.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)
Dry and stable SW flow aloft forecast to prevail over interior
Norcal during the first part of the EFP as the extended modeling
maintains a seasonably deep low pressure center just off the B.C.
coast and its associated upper trof along the west coast. Max
temps forecast to be near normal as onshore flow suppresses the
heat in the Delta influenced areas.
For the latter half of the EFP differences in the modeling results
in low confidence in the daily details. While the GFS maintains
the persistent west coast trof pattern...the ECMWF and GEM are
maintaining strong ridging over Norcal from twin anticyclones...
one over the Ern Pac near 140W and and the other over the Great
Basin. We used the "all blend" model approach for temps during the
latter half of the EFP to account for the model disparity. Large
scale subsidence will offset onshore flow and chances of deep
convection. JHM
&&
.Aviation...
VFR conditions for Valley TAF sites the next 24 hours. Patchy MVFR/IFR
stratus will linger along the western Delta through about 18z.
Upper level disturbance moving through the area may bring isolated
to scattered thunderstorms over the mountains this afternoon and
evening. Light winds will become south to west up to 15 kt this
afternoon and evening across the Valley. Near the Delta, SW wind
gusts up to 30 kt will continue.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
red flag warning from 2 pm this afternoon to 10 pm pdt this
evening mountains southwestern shasta county to northern lake
county.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
247 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
The northwest and northern edges of the warm sector this afternoon
are lined up right on the western and northern edges of our
forecast area. Look for thunderstorm development to expand
northeast along the edge of the warm sector between I-64 and
Highway 13 in southern Illinois over the next hour or two, as the
main cluster of storms pushes east, ahead of the MCV over southwest
Missouri, and into southeast Missouri. The convection will then
march eastward across the remainder of the area into the early
evening. The latest HRRR has things over with shortly after 00Z.
Severe Watch 383 has been issued through 03Z, but figure it will
be done before then.
Still looking for multicell storms pulsing occasionally to produce
damaging winds. Not sure if there is enough shear to support or
sustain linear development, but if this happens, the damaging wind
threat would increase. Just not sure about severe hail, but would
not be surprised for some small hail. Torrential rain can be
expected with any of the storms.
Figure that the main activity will be done this evening, and
although surface winds will be west or northwest tonight, the low-
level airmass will remain quite warm and moist across at least the
southeast half of the area. Cannot rule out some convective
activity there overnight or even into Wednesday, with the main
mid/upper-level trough moving through the region.
The GFS seems to be holding back the cold advection for Wednesday,
which makes sense, so will lean closer to the warmer MAV numbers
for highs Wednesday. Much cooler, drier air is coming for
Wednesday night and Thursday. Consensus guidance seems to have a
good handle on this.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
Models continue to show high pressure in control of our weather
Friday into Saturday. Drier and milder air will accompany the high,
with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal averages and dew
points in the middle 50s to around 60 degrees. This will make for
one of the more pleasant 4th of July holidays in quite a while. By
the end of the holiday weekend, high pressure moving off the east
coast and the development of a slow moving cold front across the
Plains will lead to winds shifting back to the south. Temperatures
and moisture will quickly increase across our region, with near
normal temperatures and dew points climbing back into the middle to
upper 60s on Sunday.
GFS and ECMWF part company Sunday night. GFS generates some light
QPF across our northern and western counties associated with an
upper level wave ahead of the approaching cold front, while ECMWF
keeps our area dry. With GEM keeping any precip just north of our
region, continued with dry conditions Sunday night for now. Models
continue to waffle with precipitation chances on Monday, leaning
drier right now. We already had some low pops going, so just went
with slight chance pops across some of our west and northwest
counties for Monday. For Monday night into Tuesday, latest GFS and
ECMWF are back in better agreement, bringing the cold front
southeast and generating some precip across our northern counties by
late Monday night. Went with slight chance pops across our north
Monday night, then increased pops across the entire area on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
Little of concern for the TAFs other than convection this
afternoon/evening. KCGI looks to be right in the area of best
convergence and TCU development according to latest observations.
Will insert a VCTS there to begin the TAF. It appears that a larger area
of convection will develop to the west over southeast Missouri
and reach KCGI by 21Z, so will use that as the beginning of TSRA
in a TEMPO. Elsewhere, confidence in timing and coverage preclude
TSRA in the TAF. Will have VCTS at KPAH and KOWB late afternoon
and early evening, as some should storms should at least be
nearby. KEVV may be just north of the development today. Will
monitor through the afternoon and amend as necessary based on
radar trends.
Could see some healthy gusts with any storms that reach a
terminal today, and outflow boundaries could play havoc with all
terminals through the early evening. Otherwise, west southwest
winds this afternoon will eventually become northwest with mixing
Wednesday morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
319 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A STRONG CAP HAS KEPT CONVECTION AT BAY DESPITE INCREASING
INSTABILITY WITH LI/S DOWN TO -8 TO -10 AND CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000
J/KG. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ACROSS THE OH RIVER FROM EVV TO
SDF THIS AFTERNOON FAILED TO INITIATE CONVECTION...EVIDENCE OF THE
CAP. IT APPEARS THE CAP WILL ERODE FIRST OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT HOLD ON IN THE SOUTH INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM AND HRRR HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB
BY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OH VALLEY TODAY. AS SUCH
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HRRR FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR EARLY
TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THE HRRR IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL FINALLY
INITIATE TO OUR WEST AND NW THIS EVENING AS REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER MO AND KS MOVES EAST. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE ENE TONIGHT...WITH THE NW PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE RANGE IN THE NW FOR TONIGHT WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH REMAINS OVER IN AND OH THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
PASSES. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER COULD HOLD
ON AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WE SHOULD BE DONE WITH PRECIPITATION
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SOME COOL
NIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
WEAK. BY MONDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY CREEP NORTH WHICH COULD
PROVIDE FUEL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT AGAIN...MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A BETTER CHANCE OF THE AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH MONDAY. BETTER
SHOT OF A SHOWER POPPING UP WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT EVEN
THEN...CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
BY MONDAY AS AIRMASS MODERATES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NW OVER NW OH AND
CENTRAL INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY THAT A GIVEN SPOT WILL
EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IT IN THE TAFS. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON A MID LEVEL CAP WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AS
THESE MOVE NORTHEAST...THEY WOULD AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES. A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE CEILINGS BETWEEN 2K AND 3K FEET FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE ISOLATED MVFR
CEILINGS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AS SUCH HAVE FORECAST VFR
FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
120 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
DESPITE INCREASING INSTABILITY CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
INHIBITED WITH A STRONG CAP REMAINING IN PLACE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
NAM BUFR DATA HAS CAP IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
HOLDING INTO THE EVENING. BASED ON THIS AND THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
HAVE MOVED BACK THE START TIME FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVEN
FURTHER. NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT CAP WILL
BE IN PLACE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION AND HAVE
REMOVED ANY LOW CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR THERE MAY BE LITTLE IF ANY
CONVECTION THE ENTIRE DAY. HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...WITH LI/S TO -8 TO -10 AND CAPE AROUND 4000
J/KG. IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING THERE WILL BE A SEVERE THREAT...AND
SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE A 15 PERCENT SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER. HAVE SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND THE WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
AS A LINE OF CONVECTION QUICKLY DROPPED DOWN ACROSS INDIANA TOWARDS
NORTHERN KY SEVERAL HOURS AGO...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED
ACROSS EASTERN KY. SINCE THAT TIME...THE INITIAL LINE HAS DIED
OUT...BUT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EASTERN KY
NORTHWARDS INTO OHIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW EXITING FAR EASTERN
KY...THOUGH DECIDED TO KEEP IN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CASE THERE IS ANY REDEVELOPMENT. THESE
POPS MAY BE OVERKILL...THOUGH THE HRRR DOES SHOW POTENTIAL SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH 15Z AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WENT BACK THROUGH
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPDATED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...SO
OVERALL PATTERN DIDN/T CHANGE. FINALLY...LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS TO THE FORECAST TO MAKE SURE THAT CURRENT CONDITIONS
WERE REFLECTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
CONVECTION IS ONGOING TO OUR NW ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SE. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
STARTED DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THIS SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 MODEL GUIDANCE...SO WENT
AHEAD AND INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR NW HAS DEVELOPED TWO LINES...THE
FIRST IS DROPPING VERY QUICKLY SE...FEEDING OFF A CORRIDOR OF LLVL
MOISTURE EXTENDING NWRD FROM CENTRAL KY INTO SE INDIANA AND SW
OH...AS WELL AS CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/CAPE VALUES. AS IT
CONTINUES IN THIS DIRECTION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE LOSING STRENGTH AND BEGINNING TO BREAK.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND POSE LITTLE THREAT IF IT DOES MAKE
IT INTO NORTHERN KY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SECONDARY AND
MORE ROBUST LINE IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH EASTERN KY JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT AS IT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY...AND LOSE A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF ENERGY. A WAVE OF QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
STILL SET UP ALONG MUCH OF KY...BUT IT WILL HAVE LESSENED QUITE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM WHAT IS ONGOING AT THE MOMENT TO OUR NW. THE LAST
ECMWF RUN SHOWS ANY AREAS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY STAYING NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. ALSO...WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING A HIGH CAPE BUT LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW. ONCE THE CAP BREAKS BY LATE AFTERNOON...CAPE
VALUES WILL HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY FROM 4-5K J/KG TO 3-4K J/KG...AND
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL OR SPEED SHEAR. AS
SUCH...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH LITTLE DRIVING FORCE TO
KEEP THEM SUSTAINED/LONG LIVED.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE A SLIGHT PROGRESSION EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT...PUSHING CONVECTION FURTHER INTO THE
CWA AND FINALLY ENCOMPASSING ALL OF EASTERN KY BY THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING SE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG
PUSH IN SRLY FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE MERCURY UP TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN THIS
YEAR. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES COULD MEAN HEAT INDEXES
REACHING NEAR 100 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS HIGH ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
80S ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
EXTENDED. THEY ALL TAKE A DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS TROUGH/S ENERGY ROLLS PAST EAST KENTUCKY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN RISE
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...A LAST PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM PASSES DURING THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ITS ENERGY IS KEPT ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE OHIO RIVER. ALSO OF NOTE...THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SCOOT THE EVOLVING TROPICAL SYSTEM...OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
ALONG AHEAD OF IT LIKELY SPARING KENTUCKY ANY OF ITS EXCESSIVE
TROPICAL MOISTURE. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BE CLIMBING OVER
KENTUCKY AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGE EXERTS SOME TEMPORARY DOMINANCE FOR
OUR WEATHER. THE ECMWF IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE GFS...AND ESPECIALLY
THE GEM...WITH THIS PROCESS. THE RIDGE NEVER DOES BECOME TOO STRONG
OVER THE AREA...THOUGH...SO THAT BY SUNDAY...A FEW MINOR WAVES WILL
START TO RIPPLE PAST THE STATE IN WEAK FLOW. THE ECMWF HAS A POCKET
OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY MONDAY MORNING THAT HAS
LITTLE OTHER MODEL SUPPORT SO IT HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. FOR
THE MOST PART...FAVORED A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION WANES HEADING INTO THE POST
HOLIDAY WORK WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION OF A LARGE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING THURSDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...JUST IN TIME FOR THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. THE DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EVEN AS THE COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT IT
MODERATES ALLOWING FOR A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE JUST AFTER
PEAK HEATING MONDAY...BUT STILL RATHER SMALL GIVEN THE WEAK FEATURES
ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY SFC BOUNDARIES.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE EXTENDED...THOUGH DID
ADJUST THE EXIT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LIMIT THEM TO
MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND ALSO KEPT VERY SMALL CHANCES IN THE
NORTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMPERATURE
GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO GIVE MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NW OVER NW OH AND
CENTRAL INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY THAT A GIVEN SPOT WILL
EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IT IN THE TAFS. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON A MID LEVEL CAP WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AS
THESE MOVE NORTHEAST...THEY WOULD AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES. A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE CEILINGS BETWEEN 2K AND 3K FEET FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE ISOLATED MVFR
CEILINGS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AS SUCH HAVE FORECAST VFR
FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1234 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
DESPITE INCREASING INSTABILITY CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
INHIBITED WITH A STRONG CAP REMAINING IN PLACE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
NAM BUFR DATA HAS CAP IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
HOLDING INTO THE EVENING. BASED ON THIS AND THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
HAVE MOVED BACK THE START TIME FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVEN
FURTHER. NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT CAP WILL
BE IN PLACE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION AND HAVE
REMOVED ANY LOW CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR THERE MAY BE LITTLE IF ANY
CONVECTION THE ENTIRE DAY. HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...WITH LI/S TO -8 TO -10 AND CAPE AROUND 4000
J/KG. IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING THERE WILL BE A SEVERE THREAT...AND
SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE A 15 PERCENT SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER. HAVE SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND THE WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
AS A LINE OF CONVECTION QUICKLY DROPPED DOWN ACROSS INDIANA TOWARDS
NORTHERN KY SEVERAL HOURS AGO...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED
ACROSS EASTERN KY. SINCE THAT TIME...THE INITIAL LINE HAS DIED
OUT...BUT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EASTERN KY
NORTHWARDS INTO OHIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW EXITING FAR EASTERN
KY...THOUGH DECIDED TO KEEP IN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CASE THERE IS ANY REDEVELOPMENT. THESE
POPS MAY BE OVERKILL...THOUGH THE HRRR DOES SHOW POTENTIAL SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH 15Z AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WENT BACK THROUGH
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPDATED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...SO
OVERALL PATTERN DIDN/T CHANGE. FINALLY...LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS TO THE FORECAST TO MAKE SURE THAT CURRENT CONDITIONS
WERE REFLECTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
CONVECTION IS ONGOING TO OUR NW ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SE. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
STARTED DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THIS SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 MODEL GUIDANCE...SO WENT
AHEAD AND INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR NW HAS DEVELOPED TWO LINES...THE
FIRST IS DROPPING VERY QUICKLY SE...FEEDING OFF A CORRIDOR OF LLVL
MOISTURE EXTENDING NWRD FROM CENTRAL KY INTO SE INDIANA AND SW
OH...AS WELL AS CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/CAPE VALUES. AS IT
CONTINUES IN THIS DIRECTION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE LOSING STRENGTH AND BEGINNING TO BREAK.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND POSE LITTLE THREAT IF IT DOES MAKE
IT INTO NORTHERN KY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SECONDARY AND
MORE ROBUST LINE IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH EASTERN KY JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT AS IT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY...AND LOSE A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF ENERGY. A WAVE OF QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
STILL SET UP ALONG MUCH OF KY...BUT IT WILL HAVE LESSENED QUITE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM WHAT IS ONGOING AT THE MOMENT TO OUR NW. THE LAST
ECMWF RUN SHOWS ANY AREAS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY STAYING NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. ALSO...WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING A HIGH CAPE BUT LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW. ONCE THE CAP BREAKS BY LATE AFTERNOON...CAPE
VALUES WILL HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY FROM 4-5K J/KG TO 3-4K J/KG...AND
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL OR SPEED SHEAR. AS
SUCH...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH LITTLE DRIVING FORCE TO
KEEP THEM SUSTAINED/LONG LIVED.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE A SLIGHT PROGRESSION EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT...PUSHING CONVECTION FURTHER INTO THE
CWA AND FINALLY ENCOMPASSING ALL OF EASTERN KY BY THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING SE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG
PUSH IN SRLY FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE MERCURY UP TO SOME OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN THIS
YEAR. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES COULD MEAN HEAT INDEXES
REACHING NEAR 100 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS HIGH ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
80S ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
EXTENDED. THEY ALL TAKE A DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS TROUGH/S ENERGY ROLLS PAST EAST KENTUCKY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN RISE
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...A LAST PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM PASSES DURING THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ITS ENERGY IS KEPT ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE OHIO RIVER. ALSO OF NOTE...THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SCOOT THE EVOLVING TROPICAL SYSTEM...OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
ALONG AHEAD OF IT LIKELY SPARING KENTUCKY ANY OF ITS EXCESSIVE
TROPICAL MOISTURE. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BE CLIMBING OVER
KENTUCKY AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGE EXERTS SOME TEMPORARY DOMINANCE FOR
OUR WEATHER. THE ECMWF IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE GFS...AND ESPECIALLY
THE GEM...WITH THIS PROCESS. THE RIDGE NEVER DOES BECOME TOO STRONG
OVER THE AREA...THOUGH...SO THAT BY SUNDAY...A FEW MINOR WAVES WILL
START TO RIPPLE PAST THE STATE IN WEAK FLOW. THE ECMWF HAS A POCKET
OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY MONDAY MORNING THAT HAS
LITTLE OTHER MODEL SUPPORT SO IT HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. FOR
THE MOST PART...FAVORED A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION WANES HEADING INTO THE POST
HOLIDAY WORK WEEK.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION OF A LARGE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING THURSDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...JUST IN TIME FOR THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. THE DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EVEN AS THE COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT IT
MODERATES ALLOWING FOR A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE JUST AFTER
PEAK HEATING MONDAY...BUT STILL RATHER SMALL GIVEN THE WEAK FEATURES
ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY SFC BOUNDARIES.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE EXTENDED...THOUGH DID
ADJUST THE EXIT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LIMIT THEM TO
MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND ALSO KEPT VERY SMALL CHANCES IN THE
NORTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMPERATURE
GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO GIVE MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A COLD FRONT TO OUR NW IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION. AFTER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA
TO REMAIN DRY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN THREATEN TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE FRONT BECOMES STALLED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A THREAT THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LARGE HAIL ALL THREATS TO CONTEND WITH. COVERAGE OF
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL LESSON. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED PREVAILING WX
FOR LATE TONIGHT. AS NOTED ABOVE...EXACT IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE
DETERMINED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE ONSET...BUT DID AT LEAST TRY TO
TREND TOWARDS SOME LOWERING CONDITIONS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
544 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR WILL MEANDER ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST TODAY...LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN WV THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD CU DEVELOPING OVER
THE REGION...BUT MOSTLY FLAT CU WITH VERY LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT.
LATEST RUC MODEL DEPICTS UPPER WAVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE SFC
TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO SHARPEN OVER THE PIEDMONT. LATEST BLENDED
PRECIP WATER DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION WITH PRECIP WATERS AROUND 1.75 INCHES. HOWEVER...LATEST
BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT A WARM LAYER AROUND 650MB...WHICH IS
PRODUCING THE FLAT CU OVER THE REGION. LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALSO
UNDER PERFORMING VS MODEL GUIDANCE...SO AM NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT
THAT THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AT ALL THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/ISOLATED WORDING FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING AS HI-RES GUIDANCE REMAINS
PERSISTENT ON BRINGING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY A 5 KT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS FOR TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR AS IT HAS MADE LITTLE MOVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. NO
HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT WILL REASSESS WITH NHC
THIS EVENING FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES UP TO THE VA/NC COAST. REFER
TO SHORT TERM AND NHC PRODUCTS FOR THE MORE INFORMATION.
ANY CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OR IN THE PIEDMONT WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. MILD TEMPS WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WED...
POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE ANOMALOUS
CNTRL CONUS TROUGH...EJECTING INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE
THURS. WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT...A WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE. ONGOING RETURN FLOW AND UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEG ABOVE TODAYS TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S INLAND. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 FOR A FEW HOURS WED AFTERNOON. EXPECT
BETTER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDS WITH
BETTER THETA-E ADVECTION...A SHARPENING THERMAL TROUGH AND A MOIST
BL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. MLCAPE VALUES PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN
2000-2500 J/KG FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. WHILE THE BEST
FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...STILL EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BASED ON THE
AIRMASS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...WITH OUTFLOWS AND INSTABILITY PUSHING THE STORMS
EWD. WITH PW HOVERING AROUND 2", WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS, WITH A FEW WET MICROBURSTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR
WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE NEWD PROGRESS WEDS...LOCATING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST LATE WEDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDS NIGHT BASED ON THE AIRMASS AND
APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THURS-FRI...
COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WEDS NIGHT-THURS...SLOWING
ITS ADVANCE AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR PICKS UP FORWARD SPEED THURS-
THURS NIGHT. ADDED TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED (VISIBLE ON 310K SFC AND
H85 FLOW) WILL PUSH PRECIP WATERS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE UVM OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THURS AFTERNOON...BECOMING NUMEROUS LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT
AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL LIFT ALONG THE NC COAST LATE
THURS-THURS NIGHT. EXPECT SOME INTERACTION OF MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COAST...WHICH COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN SE VA/NE NC THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING. BACK
OVER CNTRL VA...ANTICIPATE MODERATE-LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
THE FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES (500-300MB DIV). THE
AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THIS FAR
OUT...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT COULD NOW BE ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL BASED
ON INCREASING CONFIDENCE AND HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. WHAT COULD BECOME
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL LOCATE OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE IMPACTS REMAIN THE SAME...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THE MAIN CONCERN. OCCASIONAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ALONG THE NE NC COAST. WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CONSISTENTLY OFFSHORE...TORNADOES APPEAR
UNLIKELY. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES (LOCALLY UP TO 4 INCHES)...FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RATHER HIGH...SO OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MANY WATER HAZARDS.
CONFIDENCE ALSO INCREASING THAT ARTHUR WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFF THE
COAST FRI AFTERNOON...SWEEPING THE FRONT THROUGH AS IT EXITS. THIS
WILL SALVAGE SOME CLEARING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...GIVING
HOPE FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY EVENING ACTIVITIES. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING AND GRADUAL DRYING FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND (CLEARING WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATER FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOOK FOR A
BREEZY DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. COOLER AND BECOMING LESS
HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIODS BEGINS WITH DRY WEATHER AS A COLD FRONT AND
TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN HAS WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE MIDWEST. MILD
TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A COMFORTABLE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S
TO 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS AROUND 90 MONDAY WARM TO THE LOW TO MID
90S TUESDAY WITH READINGS MAINLY MID TO UPR 80S NEAR THE COAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.
KEPT POPS AT 20 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WPC MARKS A SURFACE
TROUGH NE TO SW ACROSS THE AREA COULD TRIGGER SCT TSTMS BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH TO INCREASE TO 30 PERCENT AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY THIS
AFTN BUT STILL AOB 15 KT MOST LOCATIONS. SOME CU DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON BUT JUST SCT CLOUDS AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET. COULD HAVE
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS HAVE THE
CUMULUS DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THE SCT- BKN CIRRUS DECK SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WITH EACH PASSING AFTN AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A TROPICAL SYSTEM
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
COLD FRONT AND TROPICAL SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...THEN QUICKLY EXIT WELL NORTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL...LOW CIGS...POOR VISIBILITIES...AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED DURING THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HOISTED A SCA FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WINDS WERE APPROACHING 20
KNOTS AND WITH HIGH RES MODELS INDICATING WINDS TO AROUND 20 TO 22
KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECIDED IT WAS PRUDENT TO PUT THE
SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH 06Z AS WINDS CHANNEL UP THE BAY FROM THE SE/S.
THE NEXT EVENT WILL BE ARTHUR AND USED TCM WINDS FOR ABOUT A 18
HOUR PERIOD FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF ARTHUR WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY SOUTH PORTION WITH SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE TO
THE NORTH. OVER INLAND WATERS...GALE FORCE GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN CURRITUCK SOUND WITH SCA CONDITIONS ELSEWEHRE.
WENT CLOSE TO WAVE WATCH FOR THE SEAS WHICH BUILDS THEM OVER 10
FEET IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS FOR A SHORT TIME AND WELL OVER 5 FEET
TO THE NORTH. ALSO FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WAVE WATCH WHICH LOWERS SEAS
BELOW 5 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A LITTLE QUICK FOR
THE DECREASE BUT SINCE ARTHUR WILL MOVE QUICKLY... THIS SHOULD NOT
BE FAR OFF.
PLEASE SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS REGARDING
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JAB
MARINE...LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
420 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR WILL MEANDER ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST TODAY...LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN WV THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD CU DEVELOPING OVER
THE REGION...BUT MOSTLY FLAT CU WITH VERY LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT.
LATEST RUC MODEL DEPICTS UPPER WAVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE SFC
TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO SHARPEN OVER THE PIEDMONT. LATEST BLENDED
PRECIP WATER DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION WITH PRECIP WATERS AROUND 1.75 INCHES. HOWEVER...LATEST
BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT A WARM LAYER AROUND 650MB...WHICH IS
PRODUCING THE FLAT CU OVER THE REGION. LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALSO
UNDER PERFORMING VS MODEL GUIDANCE...SO AM NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT
THAT THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AT ALL THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/ISOLATED WORDING FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING AS HI-RES GUIDANCE REMAINS
PERSISTENT ON BRINGING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY A 5 KT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS FOR TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR AS IT HAS MADE LITTLE MOVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. NO
HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT WILL REASSESS WITH NHC
THIS EVENING FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES UP TO THE VA/NC COAST. REFER
TO SHORT TERM AND NHC PRODUCTS FOR THE MORE INFORMATION.
ANY CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OR IN THE PIEDMONT WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. MILD TEMPS WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WED...
POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE ANOMALOUS
CNTRL CONUS TROUGH...EJECTING INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE
THURS. WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT...A WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE. ONGOING RETURN FLOW AND UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEG ABOVE TODAYS TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S INLAND. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 FOR A FEW HOURS WED AFTERNOON. EXPECT
BETTER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDS WITH
BETTER THETA-E ADVECTION...A SHARPENING THERMAL TROUGH AND A MOIST
BL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. MLCAPE VALUES PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN
2000-2500 J/KG FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. WHILE THE BEST
FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...STILL EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BASED ON THE
AIRMASS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...WITH OUTFLOWS AND INSTABILITY PUSHING THE STORMS
EWD. WITH PW HOVERING AROUND 2", WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS, WITH A FEW WET MICROBURSTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR
WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE NEWD PROGRESS WEDS...LOCATING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST LATE WEDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDS NIGHT BASED ON THE AIRMASS AND
APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THURS-FRI...
COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WEDS NIGHT-THURS...SLOWING
ITS ADVANCE AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR PICKS UP FORWARD SPEED THURS-
THURS NIGHT. ADDED TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED (VISIBLE ON 310K SFC AND
H85 FLOW) WILL PUSH PRECIP WATERS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE UVM OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THURS AFTERNOON...BECOMING NUMEROUS LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT
AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL LIFT ALONG THE NC COAST LATE
THURS-THURS NIGHT. EXPECT SOME INTERACTION OF MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COAST...WHICH COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN SE VA/NE NC THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING. BACK
OVER CNTRL VA...ANTICIPATE MODERATE-LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
THE FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES (500-300MB DIV). THE
AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THIS FAR
OUT...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT COULD NOW BE ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL BASED
ON INCREASING CONFIDENCE AND HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. WHAT COULD BECOME
HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL LOCATE OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE IMPACTS REMAIN THE SAME...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THE MAIN CONCERN. OCCASIONAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ALONG THE NE NC COAST. WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CONSISTENTLY OFFSHORE...TORNADOES APPEAR
UNLIKELY. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES (LOCALLY UP TO 4 INCHES)...FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RATHER HIGH...SO OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MANY WATER HAZARDS.
CONFIDENCE ALSO INCREASING THAT ARTHUR WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFF THE
COAST FRI AFTERNOON...SWEEPING THE FRONT THROUGH AS IT EXITS. THIS
WILL SALVAGE SOME CLEARING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...GIVING
HOPE FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY EVENING ACTIVITIES. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING AND GRADUAL DRYING FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND (CLEARING WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATER FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOOK FOR A
BREEZY DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. COOLER AND BECOMING LESS
HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIODS BEGINS WITH DRY WEATHER AS A COLD FRONT AND
TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN HAS WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE MIDWEST. MILD
TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A COMFORTABLE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S
TO 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS AROUND 90 MONDAY WARM TO THE LOW TO MID
90S TUESDAY WITH READINGS MAINLY MID TO UPR 80S NEAR THE COAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.
KEPT POPS AT 20 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WPC MARKS A SURFACE
TROUGH NE TO SW ACROSS THE AREA COULD TRIGGER SCT TSTMS BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH TO INCREASE TO 30 PERCENT AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY THIS
AFTN BUT STILL AOB 15 KT MOST LOCATIONS. SOME CU DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON BUT JUST SCT CLOUDS AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET. COULD HAVE
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS HAVE THE
CUMULUS DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THE SCT- BKN CIRRUS DECK SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WITH EACH PASSING AFTN AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A TROPICAL SYSTEM
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
COLD FRONT AND TROPICAL SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...THEN QUICKLY EXIT WELL NORTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL...LOW CIGS...POOR VISIBILITIES...AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED DURING THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HOISTED A SCA FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WINDS WERE APPROACHING 20
KNOTS AND WITH HIGH RES MODELS INDICATING WINDS TO AROUND 20 TO 22
KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECIDED IT WAS PRUDENT TO PUT THE
SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH 06Z AS WINDS CHANNEL UP THE BAY FROM THE SE/S.
THE NEXT EVENT WILL BE ARTHUR AND USED TCM WINDS FOR ABOUT A 18
HOUR PERIOD FRIDAY. THIS BRINGS WINDS TO GALE FORCE FOR A PORTION OF
FRIDAY IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND TO SCA OVER INLAND WATERS. WENT
CLOSE TO WAVE WATCH FOR THE SEAS WHICH BUILDS THEM OVER 10 FEET FOR
A SHORT TIME. ALSO FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WAVE WATCH WHICH BRINGS SEAS
BELOW 5 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A LITTLE QUICK FOR THE
DECREASE BUT SINCE ARTHUR WILL MOVE QUICKLY... THIS SHOULD NOT BE
FAR OFF.
PLEASE SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS REGARDING
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ098.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JAB
MARINE...LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
421 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
WITH A LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN NEAR JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS /WITH
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/ HAVE DEVELOPS OVER WRN UPPER MI AND
EXTEND BACK INTO NWRN WI WHERE GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE. THE LAKE BREEZE CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR
MOVING ONSHORE OVER ERN MARQUETTE/WRN ALGER COUNTIES...AND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AND MOVE INLAND E OF MARQUETTE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS CAPE AND SHEAR ARE LIMITED...AND ONLY ISOLATED
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. OVERALL...STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO HRRR QPF
OUTPUT FOR POPS AS IT HAS BEEN TRACKING FAIRLY WELL TODAY. AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI THIS EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT...GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL RESULT IN THESE AREAS.
OVER NW UPPER MI...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE REGIONS FROM THE NW WINDS.
VERY DRY AIR LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW TOMORROW...ERODING
CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND
OF CLEARING THE CLOUDS OUT FASTER AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FASTER
WITH THE INTRUSION OF THE DRY AIR. HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA BY 18Z WED. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WITH TEMPS AROUND 6C
WILL PASS OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY WED...WHICH WILL KEEP INLAND
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND MOST LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS IN THE
50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
MID 30S ARE STILL LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI TO
START OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRIEST AIR WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD
00-06Z THURSDAY...BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 30-40 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE DRIEST AIR WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING TO
THE SE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
N AND CENTRAL PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7C ON LIGHT
N-NNW FLOW. IN FACT...PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 70 PERCENT
OF NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY FRIDAY. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
COMMON EACH AFTERNOON UNDER LIGHT WINDS AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FROM 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.
AS FOR SPECIFICS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S ON THURSDAY...ABOUT 5F WARMER THAN THOSE REALIZED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL AROUND 5F BELOW OF SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. DRY
AIR ALLOW FOR RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON HOVERING NEAR 25 PERCENT.
ON A POSITIVE NOTE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS BELOW
10KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS NEARING 15KTS ON THE LAKE BREEZE SWINGING
IN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. A SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN ON THE WNW FLOW ALOFT
MAY BRING ABOUT A FEW CLOUDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT LIKELY
MORE NO MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
LOOK FOR THE RETURN OF SW WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH EXITS
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND A SIZABLE SFC
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR OF SHOWERS /ISOLATED TS/ FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS ON SATURDAY TO BE ADJUSTED UP A COUPLE
DEGREES...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED AND 850MB TEMPS
JUMPING UP TO 14-16C. 70S AND 80S WILL BE COMMON. THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND MAY BE A BIT WETTER. THE SPECIFICS ABOUT WHEN AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO
KEEP A LOW CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...SO WILL KEEP A GENERAL BLEND
GOING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS FROM NEAR
IWD TO NEAR SAW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
LINE...WHILE CMX REMAINS DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR SAW FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL LEAD TO DECREASED CIGS AND POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT
CMX AND IWD...BUT WAS UNSURE ABOUT PRECIP COVERAGE SO LEFT VCSH IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DRY AIR AGGRESSIVELY MOVES IN WED
MORNING...LEADING TO CLEARING FROM NW TO SE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25KTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY...WITH THE MARINE LAYER HELPING TO KEEP WINDS IN CHECK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND GENERALLY UNDER 20KTS.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
PRODUCE WINDS BELOW 15KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST THIS WEEKEND...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BUT THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
FINALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
343 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
WITH A LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN NEAR JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS /WITH
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/ HAVE DEVELOPS OVER WRN UPPER MI AND
EXTEND BACK INTO NWRN WI WHERE GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE. THE LAKE BREEZE CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR
MOVING ONSHORE OVER ERN MARQUETTE/WRN ALGER COUNTIES...AND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AND MOVE INLAND E OF MARQUETTE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS CAPE AND SHEAR ARE LIMITED...AND ONLY ISOLATED
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. OVERALL...STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO HRRR QPF
OUTPUT FOR POPS AS IT HAS BEEN TRACKING FAIRLY WELL TODAY. AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI THIS EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT...GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL RESULT IN THESE AREAS.
OVER NW UPPER MI...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE REGIONS FROM THE NW WINDS.
VERY DRY AIR LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW TOMORROW...ERODING
CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND
OF CLEARING THE CLOUDS OUT FASTER AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FASTER
WITH THE INTRUSION OF THE DRY AIR. HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA BY 18Z WED. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WITH TEMPS AROUND 6C
WILL PASS OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY WED...WHICH WILL KEEP INLAND
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND MOST LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS IN THE
50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A GENERALLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...PROVIDING A NICE START TO THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.
THE UPPER TROUGH PRODUCING THE THE LOW CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...LEADING TO THE AREA
COMING UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS STATES TODAY AND EXTEND A SURFACE RIDGE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THUS...AFTER A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY (WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT) WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE
ON THE DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A FASTER TREND TO THE
DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS THAT WAS STARTED WITH MODEL RUNS 24HRS
AGO...SO HAVE MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED SUNSHINE MAY TRY TO OFFSET THE COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT STILL THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S (WITH A FEW 70S OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNDER DOWNSLOPING FLOW). NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...THE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY KEEP SHORELINE TEMPERATURES COOLER AND IN THE 50S.
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE IN
CONTROL AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BEFORE REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (ALTHOUGH GRADUALLY WARMING TOWARDS NORMAL BY
SATURDAY). THERE ARE A COUPLE OF ITEMS TO NOTE. FIRST...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE VERY COOL OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...PWAT VALUES AROUND 35-40 PERCENT OF NORMAL
AND CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME OF THE WEST COLD SPOTS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 30S. THE OTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE...THINK THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR (AND CAPPING ABOUT 650-600MB) FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR BUT
WILL SHOW SOME CLOUDS DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.
THE NEXT WAVE TO WATCH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
THINK PRECIP SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR ANY 4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES...ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS FEATURE TRACKS HEADING
INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE GENERAL IDEA OF IT STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WILL
GRADUALLY RAMP POPS UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND
THEN A WARM FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN
CENTRAL CANADA). SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD PRODUCE
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS FROM NEAR
IWD TO NEAR SAW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
LINE...WHILE CMX REMAINS DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR SAW FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL LEAD TO DECREASED CIGS AND POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT
CMX AND IWD...BUT WAS UNSURE ABOUT PRECIP COVERAGE SO LEFT VCSH IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DRY AIR AGGRESSIVELY MOVES IN WED
MORNING...LEADING TO CLEARING FROM NW TO SE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25KTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY...WITH THE MARINE LAYER HELPING TO KEEP WINDS IN CHECK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND GENERALLY UNDER 20KTS.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
PRODUCE WINDS BELOW 15KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST THIS WEEKEND...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BUT THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
FINALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
144 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROFFING INTO
THE WRN GREAT LKS TO THE S OF SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO IN NW ONTARIO
THAT LIES BTWN UPR RDGS ALONG THE W COAST AND ALONG THE E COAST. AN
IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OF TS IS PRESENT OVER THE LOWER LKS WHERE
VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN THE PVA AHEAD OF SHRTWV MOVING
INTO WI IS LIFTING MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MUCAPE UP TO 2000
J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH AXIS OF MUCAPE ARND 500 J/KG
EXTENDS N INTO ERN UPR MI AND THERE IS SOME OF THE DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC AND UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET MAX IN ONTARIO IN THIS
AREA AS WELL...ONLY SCT SHOWERS ARE FALLING OVER THE NE HALF OF LK
SUP/AREAS E OF GRAND MARAIS-MANISTIQUE. THE CULPRIT THAT IS
RESTRICTING GREATER SHOWER/TS COVERAGE UNDER EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLD
COVER IS VERY DRY LLVLS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB/MPX RAOBS. STRONG WSW
H925-85 WINDS UP TO 29 KTS/42 KTS THAT WERE OVER GRB AT 00Z ARE
ENHANCING THIS DRY AIR ADVCTN INTO THE CWA. LOOKING TO THE W...SKIES
ARE MOCLR OVER THE FAR WRN CWA...BUT MORE CLDS AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS
ARE PRESENT IN MN JUST AHEAD OF AND TRAILING A SFC COLD FNT THAT
EXTENDS SWWD FM THE DEEP SFC LO IN NW ONTARIO THRU MN AND INTO
NEBRASKA. THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB SHOWED A DEEP MOIST LYR FM THE SFC
THRU H3. THE 00Z H85 TEMP WAS 5C AT THE PAS MANITOBA...AND GUSTY NNW
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FNT ARE DRIVING 50-DEGREE SFC TEMPS INTO THE
NCENTRAL CONUS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND POPS EARLY THIS
MRNG OVER THE E. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO CLD/TEMPS TRENDS AND SHRA CHCS
AS COLD FNT NOW IN MN PUSHES TO THE E AND ACRS UPR MI TODAY.
EARLY THIS MRNG/TDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME UPR LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WL
LINGER OVER THE ERN CWA THRU SUNRISE...LATEST RUC FCST SHOWS
STEADILY LOWERING H85 DEWPTS AT NEWBERRY. SO SUSPECT ANY SHOWERS WL
BE E OF THAT PORTION OF THE CWA BY FCST ISSUANCE. AT THE SAME
TIME...MOISTER LLVLS AHEAD OF APRCHG SFC COLD FNT ARE FCST TO PUSH
INTO THE WRN ZNS BY 12Z. SO INCLUDED SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
W TOWARD 12Z DESPITE AN ABSENCE OF SGNFT DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THESE
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS WILL THEN SPREAD E WITH THE COLD FNT...WHICH IS
FCST TO REACH THE FAR ERN CWA IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DEEP
LYR QVECTOR DVGC FCST OVER THE ERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN...THE GREAT
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS GENERATE MORE PCPN IN THIS AREA THIS AFTN...
WHEN ARRIVAL OF SFC COLD FNT WL BE IN BETTER SYNC WITH SOME DAYTIME
HEATING AND PERHAPS SOME ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH CNVGC
OF LK BREEZES OFF LK MI AND SUP. IN FACT... FCST SDNGS SHOW FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LYR MOISTENING SIMILAR TO WHAT IS SHOWN ON THE 00Z
BISMARCK RAOB. SO MAINTAINED HIER FCST POPS IN THIS AREA. BUT SINCE
THE FCST LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE IN THE ABSENCE OF
DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WL INCLUDE ONLY A SCHC FOR TS. A GOOD DEAL OF LO
CLD WL LINGER OVER THE CWA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FNT...
AND THE COMBINATION OF THE CLD COVER AND CAD BEHIND THE BNDRY MAY
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL THIS AFTN...AT LEAST OVER THE FAR W WHERE THE W
WINDS WL UPSLOPE OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP.
TNGT...ANOTHER SHRTWV NOW OVER NE MANITOBA THAT IS ROTATING ARND THE
CLOSED LO IS FCST TO APRCH THE WRN CWA LATE TODAY AND THEN SWING
ACRS THE CWA TNGT...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME PVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC.
THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD SUSTAIN DEEPER MSTR/AT LEAST
SCT SHOWERS WITHIN LINGERING LLVL MOIST CYC FLOW DESPITE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THE BEST CHC FOR THESE SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE SE IN
THE EVNG. UPSLOPE W WIND WL KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING OVER THE W THRU
MUCH OF THE NGT EVEN AFTER NVA/DRYING ALF ARRIVE FOLLOWING THE
SHRTWV PASSAGE LATE. WITH WSHFT TO THE NW OFF THE COOL LK SUP WATERS
AND H85 TEMPS FALLING AS LO AS 2C OVER THE W TOWARD 12Z...EXPECTING
A MUCH COOLER NGT WITH LO TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S OVER MOST OF
THE NRN TIER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A GENERALLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...PROVIDING A NICE START TO THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.
THE UPPER TROUGH PRODUCING THE THE LOW CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...LEADING TO THE AREA
COMING UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS STATES TODAY AND EXTEND A SURFACE RIDGE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THUS...AFTER A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY (WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT) WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE
ON THE DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A FASTER TREND TO THE
DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS THAT WAS STARTED WITH MODEL RUNS 24HRS
AGO...SO HAVE MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED SUNSHINE MAY TRY TO OFFSET THE COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT STILL THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S (WITH A FEW 70S OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNDER DOWNSLOPING FLOW). NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...THE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY KEEP SHORELINE TEMPERATURES COOLER AND IN THE 50S.
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE IN
CONTROL AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BEFORE REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (ALTHOUGH GRADUALLY WARMING TOWARDS NORMAL BY
SATURDAY). THERE ARE A COUPLE OF ITEMS TO NOTE. FIRST...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE VERY COOL OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...PWAT VALUES AROUND 35-40 PERCENT OF NORMAL
AND CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME OF THE WEST COLD SPOTS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 30S. THE OTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE...THINK THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR (AND CAPPING ABOUT 650-600MB) FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR BUT
WILL SHOW SOME CLOUDS DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.
THE NEXT WAVE TO WATCH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
THINK PRECIP SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR ANY 4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES...ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS FEATURE TRACKS HEADING
INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE GENERAL IDEA OF IT STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WILL
GRADUALLY RAMP POPS UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND
THEN A WARM FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN
CENTRAL CANADA). SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD PRODUCE
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS FROM NEAR
IWD TO NEAR SAW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
LINE...WHILE CMX REMAINS DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR SAW FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL LEAD TO DECREASED CIGS AND POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT
CMX AND IWD...BUT WAS UNSURE ABOUT PRECIP COVERAGE SO LEFT VCSH IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DRY AIR AGGRESSIVELY MOVES IN WED
MORNING...LEADING TO CLEARING FROM NW TO SE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25KTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY...WITH THE MARINE LAYER HELPING TO KEEP WINDS IN CHECK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND GENERALLY UNDER 20KTS.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
PRODUCE WINDS BELOW 15KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST THIS WEEKEND...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BUT THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
FINALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GAYLORD MI
140 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO
HUDSON BAY TODAY...CONTINUING THE WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS AND
USHERING IN COOLER...DRIER AIR.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS...WILL BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
WHILE I HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND
AFTERNOON POPS...PRIMARY NOTICEABLE CHANGE WAS TO DROP
THUNDER...AS EVEN THE OVERLY-MOIST NAM CAN ONLY MUSTER 400 J/KG
WITH THE RAP FAR LESS THAN THIS. WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO
SLOWLY FALL IN THIS AREA AND REALLY NOT ALL THAT COLD OF AN
AIRMASS AT H7/5...SEE ANY THUNDER THREAT AS VERY MINOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. LIGHTNING POTENTIAL IN THE U.P.
CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:
WELL...NORTHERN MICHIGAN ESCAPED YET ANOTHER EVENT OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE WEATHER. WE DID HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS ROLL ON THROUGH...AND
SOME SMALL HAIL IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT MOST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER ONCE
AGAIN WAS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THE UPPER LEVELS SHOW A SLOWLY
ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH THE INITIAL VORT
MAX/MCV PUSHING OFF TO OUR NE. THERE IS ANOTHER EMBEDDED VORT MAX
AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH LIFTING INTO MN ATTM...WHILE YET ANOTHER
WAVE AND TROUGH WAS SEEN DROPPING INTO THE DAKOTAS. BOTH WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS...THE LATTER WITH THE MORE CONGESTED
ACTIVITY. AS FAR AS ANY IMMEDIATE WEATHER IN NRN MICHIGAN...THERE
WERE SOME SPRINKLES TRAVERSING AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32 WHILE
THERE WERE HINTS OF SOME LOWER CLOUD TRYING TO FORM...ALONG AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT THAT WAS WORKING THROUGH WISCONSIN. THE AIR MASS
REMAIN ON THE HUMID SIDE...BUT SFC DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED BACK INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S. STILL LIKELY SOME AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
COOLER WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRY AND SET UP
SHOP IN NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH FROM
MN WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER TO EASTERN UPPER AND WISCONSIN TODAY. IT`S
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
ABLE TO SPARK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS CONVERGENCE LIKELY TO BE
ENHANCED BY FUNNELING EFFECT OF WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH LAKE
MICHIGAN....AND THE DESIRE FOR MORE WNW WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH.
SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF FCST BUFR SOUNDINGS REVELS A FEW/SEVERAL
HUNDRED POTENTIAL J/KG OF MUCAPE...AND COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO. NOTHING SEVERE. MAYBE A LATE DAY SHOWER TRYING TO
FIRE OFF IN NRN LOWER...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES TONIGHT ALONG
WITH THE VORT MAX/TROUGH FROM THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE HAS A BIT
MORE ANTICIPATED FORCING ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. RIGHT NOW...THIS FORCING IS MAXIMIZED AROUND THE GTV BAY
REGION...SO BEST CHANCES THERE. TEMPERATURES NOT AS WARM TODAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOWER 70S IN EASTERN UPPER...TO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER
80S (WARMEST IN NE LOWER WITH HELP OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS). SHOULD
ALSO BE A TAD GUSTY TODAY WITH COMMON GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. MOST OF
THAT WIND WILL BE GONE HEADING THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED
COOLING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S MOST
AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
...END OF THE HEAT AND A PLEASANT FOURTH...
OVERVIEW...THE PATTERN IS AMPLIFYING AS THE 500 MB LOW THAT WAS OVER
150W YESTERDAY IS NOW AROUND 140W. THIS HAS BEGUN TO KICK THE 500 MB
LOW THAT WAS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THE LAST FEW DAYS TOWARD THE
EAST. THIS MORNING THE LOW WAS JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES EAST
(TODAY), THEN STARTING WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE RAIN FREE, COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LEADING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND.
(7/2)WEDNESDAY...AFTER THE FRONT HAS GONE THROUGH, IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WOULD BE SOME SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE 500 MB TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKED AT THE VARIOUS STABILITY
INDICES WHICH SUGGEST THAT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON, THE K-INDEX GOES NEGATIVE IN NW LOWER AND
E UPPER, AND WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE DAY SHOULD TURN OUT MOSTLY SUNNY BE THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT, AND WITH
THE COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXPECT THAT THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE INTO THE LOWER 40S. MAYBE SOME AREA COULD GET
TO THE UPPER 30S.
(7/3)THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. LEADING TO ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY AND
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WON`T RISE MUCH WITH THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 8 OR 9C. THEY WILL TRY TO MAKE A RUN AT 70F.
EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...(FOURTH OF JULY)FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, MOVING A LITTLE TO THE
EAST BY 12Z/SAT. DRY DAY. GOOD THING THAT WE KEPT THE NIGHT DRY AS
WELL. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS HAS BACK OFF THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. (7/5)SATURDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH AND THE SFC DRY
AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY DAY. HOWEVER,
OVERNIGHT, THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN A WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
LASTS INTO THE SUNDAY. (7/6)SUNDAY...WILL CONTINUE THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS THE WAVE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE REGION BOTH DURING THE DAY
AND AT NIGHT. (7/7)MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
BY THE MORNING, SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. MAYBE RAIN SHOWERS AT NIGHT AS WELL, IF THE FRONT
STALLS AS THE MODELS SUGGEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
SUMMARY: A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
RESTRICTIONS: VFR ALL TERMINALS AT THIS TIME WITH SOME RECENT MVFR
CIGS AT MBL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME POP UP SHRAS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER /BUT LIKELY NOT OVER ANY OF THE TERMINALS/. FOR
TONIGHT...A AREA OF SHOWERS AND LOWER STRATUS WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ALL SITES WILL SEE MVFR
CIGS...WITH GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR AT PLN/MBL. THERE WILL BE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE A STRONG SIGNAL TO BRING
CONDITIONS TO VFR BEFORE 18Z/WED.
WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS 15G25KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO
5-10KTS THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND INCREASING TO 10KTS FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WEDNESDAY.
LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.
THUNDER: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
STILL HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN A FEW
SPOTS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIOR TO A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE AROUND SUNRISE. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CORRIDOR OF WIND IN SW FLOW THAT
WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON UP THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN...STRAITS...THE ST MARYS...AND
PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. THIS GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT HEADING
THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE A ND A MUCH
MORE SLACK GRADIENT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347-
349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ARNOTT
SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
THE STACKED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL FINALLY MAKE EASTWARD
PROGRESS TODAY. WHILE IT DOES SO...A LOBE OF COOL AND MOIST AIR WILL
ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HRRR AND HOPWRF ARE
RATHER CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A BAND OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
PUSHING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED...LESS ORGANIZED
AND LESS INTENSE ACTIVITY BEHIND IT. THERE IS SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT NOT TOO MUCH TO GENERATE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
WITH THE LEADING BAND. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE IN...TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING FOR A CHILLY DAY BY
FIRST OF JULY STANDARDS.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING WITH A QUICK WEAKENING
OF SHOWERS FOLLOWING SUNSET. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
SHROUDED IN CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO
LOW...BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY STILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS CENTRAL
MN. THE RECORD LOW AT MSP IS 49 AND THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR
LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
LONGER TERM TRENDS INCLUDE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. ALONG
WITH THE WARMER AIR WILL COME AN INCREASING THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
SPRINKLES LINGERING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP
AS WELL. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM TO THE
70 MARK MOST PLACES.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE MOST OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK THROUGH THE 70S...BUT REMAINING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO
BRING IN HIGHER HEIGHTS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EAST COAST TROPICAL
SYSTEM...AND LIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE 80S MOST AREAS. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FRIDAY...THEN POSSIBLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS BEEN SENDING A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR.
THE 00Z ECMWF HAS LIFTED THE ACTIVITY MAINLY NORTH INTO SATURDAY.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO LET THE MODELS MERGE TO SOME CONCLUSION.
WONT TIME ANYTHING INTO THE WEEKEND FOR NOW...BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
A COLD FRONT CURVING FROM NEAR KDLH TO KSTC TO KFSD WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH KEAU LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE FRISKY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS MENTIONED AT KMSP...KRNH AND
KEAU. PRETTY SOLID MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH EVEN SOME IFR FOR KAXN. AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING ARRIVING AROUND DAYBREAK FOR KAXN AND
REACHING KEAU BY LATE MORNING. WINDS BECOMING NW WITH FROPA WITH
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS. GUSTS REACHING THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE. NW
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND NW 6-10 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.
KMSP...WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THROUGH 21Z. CEILINGS DETERIORATING TO MVFR
BY 21Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEARING (VFR) TAKING
PLACE IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS S-SE 5-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. MVFR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. SE 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
244 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE WORKING INTO THE AREA
TODAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH THICKER CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT
DOWN TREND IN STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE WORKS NORTH INTO THE STATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
19Z LAPS DATA AND LATEST RADAR PICTURE SYNCING UP WELL AS THE BULK
OF THE SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONT DVD AND
THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE NORTHERN MTS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY IS POISED OVER THE PLAINS HOWEVER CLOUDS AND RESULTING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ARE SLOWING DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST HRRR AND
RUC AGREE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE DIVIDE WILL SPREAD EAST TOWARD THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SHARP
DRYLINE OVER WESTERN NM WILL FAVOR DRIER PRECIP ACTIVITY WEST OF
THE DIVIDE WITH WET/DRY ACTIVITY BTWN THE DIVIDE AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. THE SPC STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE PRODUCT INDICATES A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SOCORRO COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING THAT
DEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE HRRR INDICATES THIS CLUSTER COMING OUT OF SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO THEN RIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BLENDED
THE 2 SOLUTIONS SO MUCH OF THE EAST IS AT HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY
FOR TONIGHT.
GAP WINDS WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
FORCE THE MOISTURE SURGE MUCH FARTHER WEST INTO EASTERN ARIZONA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE THETA-E AXIS WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY WITH STEERING FLOW FORCING ACTIVITY EAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE ABQ/SAF METRO IN THE EVENING. PWAT VALUES
FROM 1 TO 1.5 FROM WEST TO EAST AND LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SO MAINTAINED THAT WORDING THRU WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AROUND CENTRAL NM INCLUDING ABQ AND SAF IN QUITE SOME TIME.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BECOME ORIENTED
MORE WEST-EAST OVER NORTHERN NM. NORTH-SOUTH STEERING FLOW WILL
FAVOR ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN TO SLIDE INTO THE
ABQ/SAF METRO AREA. CURRENT POP GRIDS TREND CHANCES DOWN TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY HOWEVER IT WILL DEPEND
ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE FALLS THROUGH THURSDAY AND WORKS WITH STRONG
RECYCLING PROCESSES. THE GFS INDICATES A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
MOIST INSTABILITY AGAIN OVER CENTRAL NM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS
SO AGAIN STEERING FLOW WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THE ABQ/SAF AREAS.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RAMPING UP THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR/EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO ESPECIALLY FROM THE
UPPER GILA REGION SOUTH WHERE THE AIR MASS QUICKLY DESTABILIZED
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER EASTERLY PUSH. STILL CONCERN
FOR DRIER STORMS HERE WITH LIGHTNING AND MICROBURST POTENTIAL
BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THOUGH
IMPROVING MOISTURE PROFILES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.
AIR MASS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE IMPACTS
OF LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT HAVE LINGERED LONGER. STILL WATCHING FOR A
REINFORCING SURGE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE IS FORCED WESTWARD. THUS...LOOK FOR REJUVENATED EASTERLY
GAP WINDS LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADIENTS RELAX WED AM. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...DRIER DEWPOINTS LOOK TO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND WEST WITH A TREND TOWARD MORE DRY OR MIXED WET AND DRY
STORMS FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BENEATH WEAK STEERING FLOW.
RH RECOVERIES MUCH MUCH IMPROVED WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT READINGS
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERMS BUT WILL START A DOWNWARD TREND BY
TUESDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND UPWARD WEDNESDAY AS WETTING PRECIP
SHIFTS WESTWARD. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH
WETTER STORMS IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL...AND DRIER OR MIX OF WET AND
DRY ACROSS THE FAR WEST PRIMARILY FROM THE DIVIDE WESTWARD. EXPECT FAIR TO
POOR VENTILATION WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE EAST AND SPOTTY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE WEST.
THURSDAY WILL START TO SEE DIMINISHING PRECIP IN THE EAST BUT
INCREASING TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND WEST. FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION
FROM THE WEST TO THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY BUT GOOD TO EXCELLENT
IN THE EAST. BY FRIDAY JULY 4TH...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL AREAS...WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
NEAR NORMAL AREA WIDE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES UNTIL TUESDAY. 32
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AVIATION WX IMPACTS RELATED TO SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE DURING THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. DECENT SURFACE MOISTURE BROUGHT IN FROM OVERNIGHT
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHRA AND TSRA EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...WITH GREATER CHANCES OF -TSRA FOR
KSAF...AS WELL AS AREAS NEAR THE CONTDVD IN WESTERN NM. INCLUDED VCSH
AND VCTS FOR TAF SITES ON THE EASTERN PLAINS...AS WELL AS KABQ FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOR AREAS AFFECTED BY
SHRA AND TS. LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR IN THE EAST TONIGHT
AS REINFORCING SURGES FROM THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE BUT DRY TSRA STILL A CONCERN FOR AREAS NEAR
THE CONTDVD EXTENDING EAST TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. 32
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 57 93 58 92 / 5 10 20 20
DULCE........................... 43 87 43 87 / 10 30 40 40
CUBA............................ 51 84 50 85 / 20 50 60 40
GALLUP.......................... 54 91 55 90 / 10 20 30 30
EL MORRO........................ 51 83 51 82 / 20 40 40 40
GRANTS.......................... 53 86 52 86 / 20 40 40 40
QUEMADO......................... 55 86 54 83 / 20 30 40 30
GLENWOOD........................ 52 92 51 89 / 30 40 50 30
CHAMA........................... 44 80 44 80 / 20 60 60 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 61 80 61 81 / 40 50 60 40
PECOS........................... 56 75 55 77 / 50 60 70 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 77 51 79 / 30 50 50 40
RED RIVER....................... 44 69 45 71 / 40 60 60 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 37 71 36 75 / 40 60 70 60
TAOS............................ 50 79 49 82 / 30 40 50 30
MORA............................ 51 72 50 77 / 50 60 70 50
ESPANOLA........................ 56 84 55 86 / 30 30 50 20
SANTA FE........................ 58 78 58 80 / 40 40 60 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 84 57 86 / 30 30 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 85 65 87 / 30 30 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 88 65 89 / 30 30 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 64 89 64 90 / 30 30 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 90 65 91 / 30 30 50 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 59 90 58 90 / 30 30 50 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 64 90 64 91 / 30 30 50 20
SOCORRO......................... 69 93 68 91 / 40 30 60 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 60 85 58 86 / 40 50 60 40
TIJERAS......................... 61 83 60 84 / 40 30 60 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 51 79 51 81 / 50 50 70 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 79 54 82 / 50 50 60 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 61 83 60 82 / 60 40 60 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 85 61 84 / 50 30 50 30
RUIDOSO......................... 55 79 53 80 / 60 50 50 60
CAPULIN......................... 55 72 56 79 / 50 50 50 30
RATON........................... 57 74 56 83 / 40 50 40 30
SPRINGER........................ 56 77 55 85 / 40 50 50 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 52 75 53 79 / 40 50 60 30
CLAYTON......................... 59 77 59 86 / 50 30 40 30
ROY............................. 60 74 60 81 / 50 50 50 30
CONCHAS......................... 66 80 65 87 / 70 40 40 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 65 79 64 85 / 60 50 40 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 63 80 62 89 / 70 40 50 20
CLOVIS.......................... 60 77 59 83 / 60 40 40 20
PORTALES........................ 64 80 62 86 / 70 40 40 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 80 63 86 / 70 50 40 20
ROSWELL......................... 67 84 65 87 / 50 30 40 20
PICACHO......................... 62 79 60 82 / 70 40 40 30
ELK............................. 58 75 57 78 / 70 60 50 40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1154 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AVIATION WX IMPACTS RELATED TO SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE DURING THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. DECENT SURFACE MOISTURE BROUGHT IN FROM OVERNIGHT
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHRA AND TSRA EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...WITH GREATER CHANCES OF -TSRA FOR
KSAF...AS WELL AS AREAS NEAR THE CONTDVD IN WESTERN NM. INCLUDED VCSH
AND VCTS FOR TAF SITES ON THE EASTERN PLAINS...AS WELL AS KABQ FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOR AREAS AFFECTED BY
SHRA AND TS. LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR IN THE EAST TONIGHT
AS REINFORCING SURGES FROM THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE BUT DRY TSRA STILL A CONCERN FOR AREAS NEAR
THE CONTDVD EXTENDING EAST TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. 32
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TO THE WEATHER PATTERN IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY
AS A STOUT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT RACES WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT ONLY BRINGING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO A HEALTHY DOSE OF INCREASED MOISTURE.
GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...MOST NOTABLY
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THROUGH GAPS
AND CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NEW MEXICO. OF
MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD WHERE SOME
STRONG AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA BORDER WITH ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MUCH OF NEW MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE STATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH
EACH SUBSEQUENT DAY WILL LIKELY SEE FEWER STORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE CENTROID OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AZ...LEAVING THE WESTERLIES DISPLACED FROM THE
GREATER SOUTHWEST REGION. STORMS IN SE CO...SW KS...NW OK...AND NW
TX HURLED OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT RACED INTO EASTERN AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL NM. THIS BOUNDARY PRECEDED THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
WHICH IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND WEST...AND LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
JUST ENTERED TAOS...LAS VEGAS...AND CLINES CORNERS AS OF 3 AM.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...INDUCING A GUSTY CANYON/GAP WIND IN MANY FAVORED CENTRAL
AREAS WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW
DAYS...THIS WILL INITIATE AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND TO SOME EXTENT THURSDAY. BOUNDARY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WILL RUN OUT OF MOMENTUM NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE IT COULD BE AN INITIATION POINT FOR
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON EASTERN/UPSLOPE FACES. SOME UPSLOPE WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN FACES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TODAY.
ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF...MORE
INTO THE EVENING...OVER THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS
OF NM AND INTO WEST TX WHERE A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE SETTING UP
AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE ABOVE. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS ON THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO EXTEND
OVER PORTIONS OF CHAVES COUNTY TO ROOSEVELT COUNTY BEFORE
EXTENDING FARTHER EAST INTO TX...HOWEVER THE LOCAL WRF CARRIES
THIS CONVERGENCE FARTHER SOUTH WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT NORTHWARD
CLOSER TO I-40. THE AXIS OF DILITATION FOR THE DEFORMATION ZONE
WOULD BE NEAR THIS LINE WITH BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALSO
ALIGNING NEAR. HAVE PAINTED SOME LIKELY POPS IN THIS SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FORCING
TONIGHT...AND THIS AREA COULD BE ONE OF CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. STORM MOTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM NW TO SE TODAY WITH
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...BUT SOME TRAINING CELLS AND LINEAR
STRUCTURE MAY INTRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE DEFORMATION ZONE
TONGIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL PICK UP SOME MORE STEAM TONIGHT...ADVANCING TOWARD
THE AZ BORDER...AND CONSEQUENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WESTERN ZONES WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY WILL BE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BOTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM...BUT INTO
THE EVENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND GENERAL STORM
PROPAGATIONS TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY ALLOW MANY ADJACENT AREAS TO
SEE RAINFALL TOO. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH MORE IN THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER MORE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
INTO THURSDAY THE SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE THE UPPER HIGH ORBITS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR RECYCLING
THURSDAY...AND MODELS ARE MAKING QUICK USE OF IT WITH MANY ZONES
LIKELY SEEING SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR A DAY-BY-
DAY DRYING AND LESS TO RECYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING AT ARM`S
LENGTH OF NM INTO THE LONG WEEKEND.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE STEERING FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR IDEAL
FOR A TRADITIONAL NORTH-SOUTH FLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NOR FOR
A TRANSIENT SUBTROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE AND STRONG
HEAT FLUX FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA SEEM TO
BE PRIMED TO FUEL NM WITH PLENTY OF MONSOON FUEL ONCE THE STEERING
FLOW ALLOWS.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TRANSITION TO A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT HAS BEGUN FOR EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD MAY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REACH THAT FAR WEST.
A GUSTY EASTERLY WIND INTO THE RGV REMAINS ANTICIPATED FOR AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP
IN THE TYPICAL FASHION. PRESSURE RISES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THE STRONGER
RISES HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
OKLAHOMA AND THE TX PANHANDLE...ALTHOUGH A SECONDARY PUSH WAS ALSO
NOTED OVER SE CO. LATEST RUC SUPPORTS THE WIND DEVELOPMENT AND
TIMING SO EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO INVADE CENTRAL
NM...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE WIND SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER
MIDDAY WITH MIXING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...PUSHING HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE CONTDVD AND PERHAPS
BEYOND.
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 TODAY...AS WELL AS THE NORTH CENTRAL. STEERING FLOW
WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH. DRIER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE RELEGATED TO AREAS WEST OF THE RGV TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE WEST BUT FALL
BELOW AVERAGE EAST. SUB 15 PERCENT MIN RH VALUES WILL BE FOUND ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CRATER IN THE EAST BUT
OVERALL VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD OR BETTER ALL AREAS.
RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST AREAS EXCEPT
THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER. MIN RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY WILL TREND UPWARD AS BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFT
TO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. CELL MOTION WILL BE TO
THE SOUTH BUT RATHER SLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
TO BELOW AVERAGE...CONSEQUENTLY VENTILATION WILL BE REDUCED FOR SOME
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISH EAST THURSDAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS CENTRAL AND WEST. VENTILATION MAY BE FAIR TO EVEN
POOR OVER THE RGV...WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER
WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE MODELS INDICATE IT
WILL BE PARKED INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO LOWER
DAYTIME HUMIDITIES NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL...WITH MORE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT. HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO. WHILE OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES LOOK TO REMAIN GOOD...LATE DAY HUMIDITIES WILL BEGIN TO
FALL BACK INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OVER HUDSON BAY. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP OVER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 903 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM A HUDSON BAY LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GRADIENT FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL ALSO GENERATE BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AREAWIDE TODAY. THE WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.
ONLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW FINALLY EXITS INTO
EASTERN CANADA...SHOWERS ENDING AND SKIES CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. DID
REMOVE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG EXCEPT FOR FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE THERE WERE STILL SOME RESTRICTIONS
TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER WESTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LAST
SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND IS CURRENTLY WORKING
THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD 12Z...AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z
TODAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LOCATED OVER CROSBY. BASED ON THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS
LOOP AND SHORTWAVE POSITION...CONCUR WITH THE LATEST HRRR
SKY/CEILING AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST...THAT THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. SHOULD MENTION
THAT THESE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...THE HRRR AND WRF...TRY TO
REDEVELOP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN MONTANA AND NEAR OUR WESTERN
BORDER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE
LIMITING THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE CUMULUS FIELD...FELT THE AREAL
COVERAGE WOULD BE VERY MINIMAL FOR ANY MENTION OF MEASURABLE POPS AT
THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN ADJUST AND ADD SOMETHING IF THIS AREA
GROWS LARGER THAN ANTICIPATED. FARTHER EAST...THE SHOWERS
COMPLETELY EXIT THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 22Z. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 10 MPH TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE THE 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH/COLD POCKET OVERHEAD TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WHERE CLOUDS/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON...TO AROUND 70 IN THE WEST WHERE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL EMERGE. FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT
WINDS AND A CLEARING SKY WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
NORMAL LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. RECORD LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S...BUT NOT EXPECTING TO GET THAT COLD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WEDNESDAY ON A QUIET NOTE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 80S.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
AND A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP WITH TRANSIENT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO RISE UNDER
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MID TO UPPER 80S) OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. OVERALL IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM WEEKEND...AND
ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT
THE MAJORITY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 01Z
AND CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER KJMS DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER KISN-KMOT-KDIK-KBIS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014
HEAVY RAINS FELL OVER THE SOURIS BASIN THIS PAST WEEKEND.
BOTH ALAMEDA DAM AND LAKE DARLING WILL BE STORING A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF RUNOFF GENERATED BY THESE STORMS WHILE STILL KEEPING
SOME STORAGE AVAILABLE FOR FUTURE RAINFALL EVENTS. HOWEVER WITH
THE RECENT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN IN
CANADA...RELEASES FROM ALAMEDA DAM WILL INCREASE OVER THE COMING
DAYS AND THUS INCREASING THE RELEASES DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE DARLING.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE SOURIS RIVER TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM
HYDROLOGY...JV/JJS/KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
631 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NUDGED POPS AND SKY COVER BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS WE HAVE
NOT SEEN A MUCH SIGNS OF CU BREAKING THE CAP. MEANWHILE...FRONT
LOOMS TO OUR WEST WITH CONVECTION STILL FIRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NRN KY. HAVE LINEARLY EXTRAPOLATED THIS ACTIVITY INTO
OUR FAR WEST CWA BY ABOUT THE 05Z-06Z TIME FRAME AS WAVE LOCATED
ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP CONVECTION FIRING. THIS AGREES FAIRLY
WELL WITH SOLUTIONS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE DEPICTING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW
OVER NOAM...LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE MAIN DIGGING SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL CARVE OUT THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT...STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL END THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER
ALONG WITH THE STORMS. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY WITH THE AID OF UPSLOPE...LOOK FOR A MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LATER THURSDAY AND ON INTO
THE 4TH OF JULY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WILL REACH TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH LOW HUMIDITIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
80S UNDER SUNSHINE. BY SUNDAY A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES AGAIN...AND A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WITH ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEAT...HUMIDITY...AND A
CHANCE OF STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
10AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO AVIATION FORECAST.
OLD BELOW...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z IN SW
FLOW WITH JUST SOME CU TO CONTEND WITH. ATTENTION TURNS UPSTREAM
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
PROPAGATE INTO SE OH AND N WV LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH STRONG TO PERHAPS SVR STORMS WITH WIND BEING PRIMARY
HAZARD. WILL KEEP VCTS WORDING IN TAFS AT THIS DISTANCE. SOME
QUESTION AS TO EXTENT OF COVERAGE FROM KHTS/KCRW/KBKW/KEKN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/LS
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...LS
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
325 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY ON THE EAST SIDE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE FRONT
WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
HURRICANE ARTHER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. DRIER AND COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...
BOTH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE HAVE BEEN MAKING
THEIR WAY EASTWARD WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WE ARE
EXPECTING THE DEVELOPMENT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE AMPLE...PARCELS WILL BE FIGHTING
A WARM NOSE JUST ABOVE 700 MB. HOWEVER...ONCE PENETRATED...THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF CAPE TO WORK WITH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION. CURRENTLY...SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
HAS STARTED JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SAME IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SOON OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH A FOCUS OF ACTIVITY ALONG
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
A CHALLENGE FOR THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER HEADING SOUTH INTO
THE AREA...FOLLOWING THE OUTFLOW DENSITY CURRENT OF ONGOING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. THE 16Z/NOON HRRR MODEL IS OFFERING A
SOLUTION THAT EXPANDS CONVECTION NEAR PA/MD/WV INTO A THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER THAT HEADS QUICKLY SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
IMPACTS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION AROUND SUNSET...AND THEN
CONTINUES SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH 100 AM
WEDNESDAY. CURIOUSLY ENOUGH...THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MODEL
HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH THIS POTENTIAL EVOLUTION BASED UPON
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT THE
OPERATIONAL NAM ALSO GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO THIS SOLUTION...WILL BE
REFLECT THIS EVENT IN OUR FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE AT THIS POINT.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DRAW
CLOSER TO THE AREA AND PROVIDE FOR GREATER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION AS COMPARED TO THE SCENARIO TODAY. SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF BUCKINGHAM COUNTY VA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SPC INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY2
OUTLOOK. VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG HEATING LEADING TO 2000-3000 J/KG
MLCAPE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH STRONGER
UPDRAFTS DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
DECENT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING MODERATE SHEAR AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SUPPORT THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS. THE OTHER
CONCERN IS THAT THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE CLOSE TO A HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN BUCKINGHAM COUNTY. THE COVERAGE IS TOO LIMITED IN AREA
AND TIME FOR ANY HEAT HEADLINES. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY WITH CONVECTION. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
ON THURSDAY...OUR AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A SECOND EJECTING SHORT
WAVE FROM THE MIDWEST TROUGH AND TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVING
NORTHEAST UP CAROLINA COAST. WHILE TROPICAL STORM ITSELF DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY TO GIVE US DIRECT IMPACT BASED ON CURRENT CONSENSUS
TRACKS...THE ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT AND
MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITH
CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY NEED FOR FLASH FLOOD
HEADLINES WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL FORECASTED TO OUR NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...ANY TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING
ISSUES. WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ADJMETBC HIGHS THURSDAY WITH
VALUES FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY...ARTHUR WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
AND BE LOCATED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE BLACKSBURG CWA...BUT WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE PIEDMONT AREAS FOR LINGERING HEAVY
RAINFALL...AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS POINT DESPITE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. NHC TRACK IS CLOSER TO GFS INSTEAD OF THE SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION. IN ANY CASE...HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST UNTIL 06Z
FRIDAY. LEANED LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ADJMAVBC FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE
EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE AS IT
TRACKS NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR THE EAST COAST DURING THE PERIOD.
CONSULT NHC PRODUCTS FOR THE LATEST INFO REGARDING T.S. ARTHUR.
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY AND REACHES THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DECREASED POPS FRIDAY MORNING GOING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PLAYED
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER
80S IN THE EAST. A PLEASANT FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL PRODUCE A DELIGHTFUL SATURDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...SOME RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO HIGHS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
WEST. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.
WITH DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE...MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH READINGS
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE
PIEDMONT ON MONDAY TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE EAST TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. BRIEF...LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE
THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.
TONIGHT...PATCHY MVFR LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN BY
MID- DAY WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE GREATER IN COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COMPARED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
DRAWS CLOSER. LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
HEAVIER CELLS.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE ADVANCING FRONT AND TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS ARE LOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK
OF ARTHUR.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
152 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL
NORTH OF A COASTAL TROPICAL STORM ALSO INCREASES. DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT BY THE START OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT TUESDAY...
REGIONAL RADARS AT THIS POINT IN TIME ARE SHOWING ALL CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INITIATION TIME AROUND 300 PM NEAR THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF ROANOKE AND ALSO ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ISOLATED
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH THE BEST
CONCENTRATION BETWEEN ROUGHLY ROANOKE AND HOT SPRINGS VIRGINIA.
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE WARMED READINGS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...AND FOR THE MOST PART...DID NOT ADJUST AREAS IN THE
MOUNTAINS BY MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER WAY FROM THE EARLIER
FORECAST.
AS OF 950 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THAT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST
TROUGH WEST VIRGINIA...HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THEY ENTER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOCAL WRF-ARW...AND
TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER EXTENT...THE HRRR BOTH SHOWED THIS
TREND...AND ITS OUTPUT CURRENTLY IS ON TRACK. WILL GIVE INCREASED
WEIGHT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE NEXT THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST
WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH THE CONVECTION TRENDING
EASTWARD AS NEW DEVELOPMENT INITIATES ON THE OUTFLOW OF THE PARENT
STORMS.
SPC HAS EXPANDED EASTWARD ITS EXTENT OF THE DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN BEING DAMAGING WINDS
WITH HAIL A NEARLY AS LIKELY SECONDARY POTENTIAL. THE SLIGHT RISK
REGION NOW COVERAGE ALL OF OUR WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND THOSE
VIRGINIA COUNTIES ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 460.
AS OF 705 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FORECAST KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOW THIS
MORNING...THOUGH WATCHING A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION HEADING
SOUTH OF CRW. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW THIS WEAKENING GOING INTO SE WV
THIS MORNING SO LEFT ISOLATED THREAT THERE. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 330 AM...
HAVE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN HIGHER THETA-E ZONE PER LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM THE TRIAD INTO THE VA FOOTHILLS. MODELS KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA THRU THE MORNING. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THOUGH WEAK IS ALSO PICKED UP ON THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE SHIFTING EAST TO THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE.
THE 00Z GFS AND 04Z HRRR SHOWING A MORE REALISTIC VIEW...WITH ECMWF
NOT TOO BAD EITHER. TODAY WILL BE VERY WARM...AND APPEARS THREAT OF
STORMS IS MINIMAL...GIVEN CAP IN PLACE. MODELS BREAK THE CAP BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER THETA-E AND LOW L CONVERGENCE SETTING
UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OF VA. OVERALL KEPT POPS ISOLATED IN MOST
LOCALES WITH SCATTERED/30 POPS IN THE FLOYD/ROANOKE/NRV AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOST LOCATION STAY RAINFREE. ANY STORMS
TODAY WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AGAIN AND WITH PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE...HEAVY RAINERS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES...BUT AGAIN VERY ISOLATED SO NO WATCH WARRANTED. STORM MOTION
PER MODELS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
WATCHING UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES. MODELS SHOW
WEAKENING THIS MORNING AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO WRN OHIO AND SRN
INDIANA. MODELS THEN FIRE CONVECTION UP AGAIN FROM WRN PA SOUTHWEST
TO SRN OHIO/NRN KY BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SLOW IT DOWN AND FADE IT
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT TO OUR NW. AT LEAST WILL KEEP/HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE WV MTNS INTO PORTIONS OF SW VA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...PER LOW LVL THETA-E RIDGING INCREASING AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE LATE.
AS FOR TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HOT...AS THINK SUNSHINE WILL BE ABUNDANT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR GOOD HEATING. THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AGAIN WILL
HELP PREVENT TEMPS FROM SOARING TOO FAR WHILE WINDS STAY MORE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WEST/MTNS...TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT TO REMAIN MUGGY AS TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
MTNS TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO APPROACH THE APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
KICKING OUT THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS WESTERN SLOPES OF
APPALACHIANS BY LATE IN THE DAY. NO DISTINCT SFC FEATURES ALTHOUGH A
WEAK LEE TROUGH IS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON. NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THIS FAR NORTH OF WHERE TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BE BY LATE WED...STILL OFF COAST NEAR
SAVANNAH. VERY WARM LOWER LEVELS...INCREASING DEW PTS INTO LOWER
70S...RESULTS IN SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WHILE LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT ESPECIALLY STEEP...THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MODERATE SHEAR AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AS WELL AS
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR...SHOULD STILL RESULT IN A RISK OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING PRIMARY THREAT.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN WEST CLOSER TO THIS UPPER WAVE AND WHERE
BETTER MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS...BUT WITH WEAK LEE TROUGH POSSIBLE AND HOT
TEMPERATURES...EAST OF BLUE RIDGE LIKELY TO GET INTO THE GAME AT
SOME POINT...MAY BE MORE IN THE EVENING THERE. SPC HAS UPGRADED TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS WELL. IF TEMPS
REACH MID 80S WEST AND MID 90S EAST...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM UPPER 80S WEST TO THE 100-105 RANGE EAST. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT QUICKLY DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FROM WHAT IS IN CURRENT FCST...BUT THIS WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY IN THE WEST. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A HEAT ADV HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT IF THESE FCST HIGHS OF LOWER TO MID
90S ARE REALIZED...BUT RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE SMALL AREAS FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
BY THURSDAY...SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN SECOND EJECTING SHORT WAVE FROM
MIDWEST TROUGH AND PROBABLE TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVING NORTHEAST
UP CAROLINA COAST...MAY HELP WRING OUT MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.
WHILE TROPICAL STORM ITSELF DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO GIVE US DIRECT
IMPACT BASED ON CURRENT CONSENSUS TRACKS...THE ADVECTION OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COULD
PRODUCE ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND
FACT THAT MODELS NOT PRODUCING ESPECIALLY HIGH PRECIP AMTS OVER OUR
REGION MAKES ANY NEED FOR FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE CLOSELY WATCHED OVER NEXT 48
HRS. MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD OVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND
THUS INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL A LITTLE LESS
THURSDAY...BUT AS MENTIONED THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN WED.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY LIFTING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
QUICKLY NORTHEAST OFF NC COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE BLACKSBURG CWA...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
WATCH THE PIEDMONT AREAS FOR LINGERING HEAVY RAINFALL...AT LEAST
INTO THE EVENING. MODERATELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS POINT DESPITE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST...SOUTH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ACCORDING TO CONSENSUS OF CURRENT MODELS...BUT
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THAT TO BE REFINED. THE OTHER WEATHER STORY
WILL THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS COULD DROP AS LOW AS THE UPPER
40S IN OUR FAR NW BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA
WHICH WILL BE A PLEASANT CHANGE FOR THE HUMIDITY AVERSE OUT THERE.
DAYTIME HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BOTH SAT/SUN. WONT LAST TOO LONG AS IT IS JULY AND
RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. BRIEF...LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE
THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.
TONIGHT...PATCHY MVFR LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN BY
MID- DAY WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE GREATER IN COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COMPARED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
DRAWS CLOSER. LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
HEAVIER CELLS.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE ADVANCING FRONT AND TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS ARE LOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK
OF ARTHUR.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW/SK
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL
NORTH OF A COASTAL TROPICAL STORM ALSO INCREASES. DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT BY THE START OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT TUESDAY...
REGIONAL RADARS AT THIS POINT IN TIME ARE SHOWING ALL CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INITIATION TIME AROUND 300 PM NEAR THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF ROANOKE AND ALSO ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ISOLATED
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH THE BEST
CONCENTRATION BETWEEN ROUGHLY ROANOKE AND HOT SPRINGS VIRGINIA.
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE WARMED READINGS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...AND FOR THE MOST PART...DID NOT ADJUST AREAS IN THE
MOUNTAINS BY MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER WAY FROM THE EARLIER
FORECAST.
AS OF 950 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THAT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST
TROUGH WEST VIRGINIA...HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THEY ENTER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOCAL WRF-ARW...AND
TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER EXTENT...THE HRRR BOTH SHOWED THIS
TREND...AND ITS OUTPUT CURRENTLY IS ON TRACK. WILL GIVE INCREASED
WEIGHT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE NEXT THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST
WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH THE CONVECTION TRENDING
EASTWARD AS NEW DEVELOPMENT INITIATES ON THE OUTFLOW OF THE PARENT
STORMS.
SPC HAS EXPANDED EASTWARD ITS EXTENT OF THE DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN BEING DAMAGING WINDS
WITH HAIL A NEARLY AS LIKELY SECONDARY POTENTIAL. THE SLIGHT RISK
REGION NOW COVERAGE ALL OF OUR WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND THOSE
VIRGINIA COUNTIES ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 460.
AS OF 705 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FORECAST KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOW THIS
MORNING...THOUGH WATCHING A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION HEADING
SOUTH OF CRW. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW THIS WEAKENING GOING INTO SE WV
THIS MORNING SO LEFT ISOLATED THREAT THERE. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 330 AM...
HAVE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN HIGHER THETA-E ZONE PER LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM THE TRIAD INTO THE VA FOOTHILLS. MODELS KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA THRU THE MORNING. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THOUGH WEAK IS ALSO PICKED UP ON THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE SHIFTING EAST TO THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE.
THE 00Z GFS AND 04Z HRRR SHOWING A MORE REALISTIC VIEW...WITH ECMWF
NOT TOO BAD EITHER. TODAY WILL BE VERY WARM...AND APPEARS THREAT OF
STORMS IS MINIMAL...GIVEN CAP IN PLACE. MODELS BREAK THE CAP BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER THETA-E AND LOW L CONVERGENCE SETTING
UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OF VA. OVERALL KEPT POPS ISOLATED IN MOST
LOCALES WITH SCATTERED/30 POPS IN THE FLOYD/ROANOKE/NRV AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOST LOCATION STAY RAINFREE. ANY STORMS
TODAY WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AGAIN AND WITH PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE...HEAVY RAINERS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES...BUT AGAIN VERY ISOLATED SO NO WATCH WARRANTED. STORM MOTION
PER MODELS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
WATCHING UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES. MODELS SHOW
WEAKENING THIS MORNING AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO WRN OHIO AND SRN
INDIANA. MODELS THEN FIRE CONVECTION UP AGAIN FROM WRN PA SOUTHWEST
TO SRN OHIO/NRN KY BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SLOW IT DOWN AND FADE IT
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT TO OUR NW. AT LEAST WILL KEEP/HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE WV MTNS INTO PORTIONS OF SW VA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...PER LOW LVL THETA-E RIDGING INCREASING AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE LATE.
AS FOR TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HOT...AS THINK SUNSHINE WILL BE ABUNDANT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR GOOD HEATING. THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AGAIN WILL
HELP PREVENT TEMPS FROM SOARING TOO FAR WHILE WINDS STAY MORE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WEST/MTNS...TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT TO REMAIN MUGGY AS TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
MTNS TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO APPROACH THE APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
KICKING OUT THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS WESTERN SLOPES OF
APPALACHIANS BY LATE IN THE DAY. NO DISTINCT SFC FEATURES ALTHOUGH A
WEAK LEE TROUGH IS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON. NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THIS FAR NORTH OF WHERE TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BE BY LATE WED...STILL OFF COAST NEAR
SAVANNAH. VERY WARM LOWER LEVELS...INCREASING DEW PTS INTO LOWER
70S...RESULTS IN SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WHILE LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT ESPECIALLY STEEP...THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MODERATE SHEAR AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AS WELL AS
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR...SHOULD STILL RESULT IN A RISK OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING PRIMARY THREAT.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN WEST CLOSER TO THIS UPPER WAVE AND WHERE
BETTER MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS...BUT WITH WEAK LEE TROUGH POSSIBLE AND HOT
TEMPERATURES...EAST OF BLUE RIDGE LIKELY TO GET INTO THE GAME AT
SOME POINT...MAY BE MORE IN THE EVENING THERE. SPC HAS UPGRADED TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS WELL. IF TEMPS
REACH MID 80S WEST AND MID 90S EAST...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM UPPER 80S WEST TO THE 100-105 RANGE EAST. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT QUICKLY DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FROM WHAT IS IN CURRENT FCST...BUT THIS WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY IN THE WEST. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A HEAT ADV HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT IF THESE FCST HIGHS OF LOWER TO MID
90S ARE REALIZED...BUT RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE SMALL AREAS FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
BY THURSDAY...SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN SECOND EJECTING SHORT WAVE FROM
MIDWEST TROUGH AND PROBABLE TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVING NORTHEAST
UP CAROLINA COAST...MAY HELP WRING OUT MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.
WHILE TROPICAL STORM ITSELF DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO GIVE US DIRECT
IMPACT BASED ON CURRENT CONSENSUS TRACKS...THE ADVECTION OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COULD
PRODUCE ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND
FACT THAT MODELS NOT PRODUCING ESPECIALLY HIGH PRECIP AMTS OVER OUR
REGION MAKES ANY NEED FOR FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE CLOSELY WATCHED OVER NEXT 48
HRS. MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD OVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND
THUS INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL A LITTLE LESS
THURSDAY...BUT AS MENTIONED THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN WED.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY LIFTING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
QUICKLY NORTHEAST OFF NC COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE BLACKSBURG CWA...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
WATCH THE PIEDMONT AREAS FOR LINGERING HEAVY RAINFALL...AT LEAST
INTO THE EVENING. MODERATELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS POINT DESPITE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST...SOUTH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ACCORDING TO CONSENSUS OF CURRENT MODELS...BUT
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THAT TO BE REFINED. THE OTHER WEATHER STORY
WILL THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS COULD DROP AS LOW AS THE UPPER
40S IN OUR FAR NW BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA
WHICH WILL BE A PLEASANT CHANGE FOR THE HUMIDITY AVERSE OUT THERE.
DAYTIME HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BOTH SAT/SUN. WONT LAST TOO LONG AS IT IS JULY AND
RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FOG/LOW CIGS THIS MORNING AT BCB/LWB WILL ERODE TO SCATTERED OR
BKN VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING. NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION SOUTH
OF CRW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT HEADS EAST TOWARD LWB/BLF...PER
HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS...THOUGH ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR BLF FOR MVFR
FROM 13-14Z.
WILL SEE SCT-BKN CU OFF AND ON THROUGH THE DAY WITH CIRRUS ALOFT
DUE TO BLOWOFF FROM UPSTREAM STORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA DOES NOT LOOK STRONG TODAY BUT MODELS
OVERALL PAINTING SOME NEAR BCB/ROA IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE VCSH
FOR NOW THERE. THUNDER HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE FAR WEST...THOUGH
LACK OF WEDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE THUNDER IN THE AREA TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. MODELS SHOW THE COLD
FRONT SLOWING DOWN ALONG THE PIEDMONT DUE TO A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BOOT THE COLD FRONT AND TROPICAL LOW AWAY TO BRING A
DRIER AIR MASS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW/SK
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...RCS/WP